textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chance for isolated showers and storms late- afternoon and evening today.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase through the week as an active weather pattern resumes.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Diurnal temperature trends aren't especially favorable for fog this morning, but given near-calm conditions along and east of the I-35 corridor and humid 0-1 km RH, a few spots of patchy fog are possible over the Coastal Plains until about 9 AM this morning.

The mid-level ridge that has kept our area mostly dry the past few days is beginning to lift north, which opens the door on its southern flanks for slightly cooler air aloft to slip into the area. This should make the atmosphere somewhat less stable and provide marginally better chances for the development of a few isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms later this afternoon to evening. The main contributor to this activity is a weak low-level baroclinic zone or subtle front to our northeast being pushed into our area by surface high pressure over the Great Lakes, which may send some isolated shower activity our way with the best chances in the Coastal Plains and Austin area. Lackluster wind shear and weak synoptic forcing favors mostly spotty activity, but the humid air in place (with about 1.5 to 1.7-inch PWATs) could support a briefly heavier downpour and some gusty winds. Otherwise, it should be dry for most of the daytime Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s under a mix of partly to mostly sunny skies.

Heading into Wednesday, and becoming more prominent towards the latter half of the week, the juxtaposition of high amplitude ridging over the eastern US and troughing over the western US will shape an avenue for tropical moisture to stream northward into our region. Low- to mid-level winds will take some time to respond to this synoptic pattern and forcing Wednesday will still be weak, but the added moisture could aid isolated rain chances Wednesday. A more agitated and moistened seabreeze over the Coastal Plains and an outgoing shortwave trough overlapping with the dryline over West Texas could be contributors to the day's action, focusing Wednesday's shower potential to the late afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

An upper-level low is forecast to be positioned over Baja California on Thursday and gradually swing into our area to end the week. As it approaches our area, this will increasingly align deep-layer winds over our area and strengthen the incoming flow of deep-layer tropical moisture, leading to an increase in rain chances. Gulf moisture enhanced by a weak low-level inverted trough should start pushing into our area Thursday, followed by mid-level moisture sourced from the eastern Pacific around Friday, ahead of the incoming upper-level low. The combination of these two moisture streams is expected to result in a substantially moist atmosphere characterized by PWAT values by Friday nearing or potentially exceeding 2 inches, or above the 95th percentile for early June.

While the location and form of potential rains during this time period is uncertain this far in advance, storms that develop in the forecast environment could have the potential to produce torrential rainfall. Currently, the most favored period for heavy is Friday to Saturday, which is when the stream of deep tropical moisture is most likely to be centered over our area. However, shifts in the timing of the approaching Baja California low and stochastic variations in the distribution of vorticity associated with that disturbance mean a heavy rain threat from this pattern could materialize as early as Thursday and could linger into early next week if mid-level dry air doesn't entrain quick enough. Stay tuned and check back with the forecast often heading through the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

MVFR and IFR cigs are forecast to begin shortly and continue through late Tuesday morning. VFR cigs return for the afternoon and evening. A light east to southeast wind flow to dominate the local area during the today and evening periods. There is a slight chance for showers and storms along the I-35 sites this afternoon and evening, however, confidence is low to include this activity for this forecast package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 74 89 72 / 20 30 40 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 74 89 72 / 20 30 40 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 72 88 71 / 20 20 50 50 Burnet Muni Airport 90 71 86 70 / 20 30 40 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 75 92 73 / 0 10 20 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 92 73 88 71 / 20 40 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 90 73 88 71 / 10 20 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 73 89 71 / 20 20 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 73 88 72 / 30 20 40 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 74 88 73 / 20 20 40 50 Stinson Muni Airport 92 74 89 72 / 10 20 40 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.