textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather continues into the middle of next week with heat indices near or exceeding 100F.

- Low chances (10-20 percent) for isolated severe storms late afternoons and evenings this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Surface low pressure resides over the Texas Panhandle with a dryline extending into West Texas expected to shift east over Val Verde County this afternoon. Ahead of this feature, a humid and warm airmass is in place with highs this afternoon in the 90s for a majority of our area. With dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s this afternoon, heat indices approach or exceed 100 degrees today with the highest values over the Rio Grande Plains.

Rain-free conditions are expected through the mid-afternoon with a bit more uncertainty as we head into the 4 PM to 8 PM timeframe. As mentioned in previous forecasts (and will also be mentioned in future forecasts), chances for thunderstorms largely depend on if the cap breaks. If this does occur, the environment supports strong to severe thunderstorms with the main hazards of large hail and damaging wind gusts. The probability of a tornado is low. Any potential activity would weaken after sunset leaving dry, warm and overcast conditions overnight tonight into Sunday morning. Similar to this morning, there will likely be areas of patchy fog.

Sunday will be close to a repeat of today, though temperatures and heat indices may trend up a degree or two. The conditional risk for severe thunderstorms continues late Sunday afternoon and evening with development this day favored along and west of I-35.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The first half of the upcoming week will see our hottest temperatures, with highs and heat indices peaking on Tuesday. A continued regime of clouds overnight, most favored across the eastern half of the area, will bring even warmer low temperatures to many limiting overnight recovery from the heat. NWS HeatRisk peaks Monday and Tuesday showing moderate risk over the majority of our area these days, with some major risk over the Rio Grande Plains on Tuesday. The feels-like temperature Tuesday will range from 100-105 degrees over the I-35 corridor, portions of the Hill Country and Coastal Plains. Values may be slightly higher over the Rio Grande Plains. Given this early season heat, taking precautions such as limiting time outdoors or taking breaks in shade is recommended. Additionally, check on populations more vulnerable to the heat.

Chances for isolated severe storms Monday into Tuesday have trended down. Slightly better rain chances are seen Tuesday evening as a frontal boundary moves closer to our area. While there is still a decent spread in model guidance late week, higher rain chances and cooler temperatures do look to return as a cold front eventually makes it through our area, though confidence on timing is low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Haze appears to be spreading in from the south and affecting the morning to midday TAF sites. This type of air mass further strengthens the capping inversion so we'll avoid any mention of storms for now. Low clouds tonight should also follow the pattern for persistence, and we'll go back to avoiding IFR CIGs for now. Gridded population blends also favor a more conservative trend for tonight's clouds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 92 73 93 / 10 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 92 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 92 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 70 92 71 91 / 20 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 98 75 98 / 10 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 92 72 92 / 20 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 69 94 70 96 / 20 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 92 72 94 / 10 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 91 73 93 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 93 72 95 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 72 94 73 96 / 10 10 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.