textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms; highest threat to mainly concentrate along and south of I-10/HWY 90 into this evening. - Potential for locally heavy rainfall through this evening

- Additional rain/storm chances during midweek with potential for isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall

UPDATE

Issued at 411 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Peak heating has arrived and we've already seen one severe storm take shape over Uvalde County. SPC has issued a SVR Watch #27 through 11 PM. Highest severe potential will be for areas east of Highway 281 and south of I-10, just behind the front. Overrunning cells will continue to provide a hail threat as far north as Hays County, but the threat for wind damage and isolated tornadoes could be reduced by 7 PM as the front should be south of our forecast area by then.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tonight) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Overall evolution of today's system has not changed from the previous forecast. What has changed is timing and location of severe weather potential. A cold front is diving across south central Texas over the course of the day today and will bring strong to severe thunderstorms to portions of the area.

The cold front mentioned above has already moved through the northern counties of the service area due to a stronger driving cold airmass. Temperatures in central Texas have dropped into the 40s and 50s as of 10am and will likely not reach much into the 60s for highs. The result of the strong airmass has allowed the cold front to surge southwards approximately 3-4 hours ahead of schedule. Hi- res solutions have latched onto this sooner timing and now show the cold front moving into the I-35 corridor between noon and 3pm before reaching the Coastal Plains between 3pm and 6pm. The front is then anticipated to stagnate/stall over the Rio Grande Valley/Coastal Plains well into the overnight hours. Additional thunderstorms are possible along this stalled front into the overnight hours before diminishing after midnight.

Despite the earlier timing, hazard potential haven't changed much as we still anticipate some thunderstorms being capable of producing hail up to 2", damaging wind gusts of 60 mph, and localized heavy rainfall. Location of these hazards has shifted south with the faster timing of the front.

With the earlier timing of the front, expectation of severe weather for the northern counties of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau has diminished as the front has already moved through them and storms that form will be elevated. Being elevated, the risk of damaging wind gusts is much lower however, an isolated storm capable of producing up to 1" hail can't be fully ruled out as of yet for those areas behind the front.

The I-35 corridor will be transition zone of where we might be able to warm enough to get some of the better instability for thunderstorms to work with before the front pushes through. Once the front pushes through then severe concerns will diminish. Our thinking and hi-res models are in agreement, is that the better location for severe weather capable of meeting our hazards mentioned able will generally be along and south of I-10 and Hwy 90. Hi-res models show this are having MLCAPE of 1500 to 2000 J/kg, and a higher MLCAPE value closer to 2500 over Maverick County this afternoon.

Shifting to the heavy rain threat, PWATs across the area remain very high for early March with the Del Rio sounding this morning showing 1.33". This amount of atmospheric moisture will allow for rainfall to be fairly efficient, and storm motions briefly become nearly parallel to the front with time. This would allow for some training of storms particularly across the Coastal Plains. Hi-res model continue to show the area seeing generally less than 1 inch with isolated higher totals of 2 to 4 inches in areas where training develops.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The upper low that helped to send our cold front on Saturday will continue to cutoff over western Mexico/southern California on Sunday. The stalled front is anticipated to modify, but could allow for isolated rain chances through the remainder of the weekend.

Closed off low re-integrates with upper flow by Tuesday to Wednesday of the upcoming week. There remains some uncertainty as with the model consensus which kept a scattered depiction of rain chances on Tuesday with better chances of widespread rainfall on Wednesday. There remains potential for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms for portions of the Hill Country and the northern I-35 corridor on Tuesday into Wednesday. PWATS continue to be advertised well above climatology for early March which maintains the potential for locally heavy rainfall during this timeframe.

As the upper low departs, so do our rain chances for the remainder of the forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR conditions are forecast for all area sites through at least midday Sunday. A cold front is moving across the local area and extends from KAUS to KERV to north of KDRT. This boundary is forecast to push to the southeast for the rest of this afternoon and evening. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms across the I-35 terminals from 19Z to 21Z. Moderate northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots are forecast along and behind the front. Stays breezy this evening through Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 55 72 62 83 / 50 30 20 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 54 72 60 83 / 60 30 20 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 55 71 61 82 / 60 40 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 52 70 60 80 / 30 20 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 56 68 61 81 / 30 50 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 52 72 60 82 / 50 20 20 30 Hondo Muni Airport 54 71 60 81 / 50 50 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 55 72 61 83 / 60 40 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 57 74 63 83 / 70 40 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 56 71 63 81 / 50 50 40 30 Stinson Muni Airport 58 72 63 83 / 60 50 30 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Severe Thunderstorm Watch for 21 counties in South Central Texas through 11 PM CST this evening.