textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Labor Day.

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains through much of the week.

- Humid conditions with above average temperatures and peak heat indices continue.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The 500mb high remains centered over the Texas Panhandle late this evening. Easterly mid-level flow has allowed some isolated to scattered showers the last couple afternoons as just enough lift and tropical moisture have made it northward into South Central Texas. We will get one more day of showers and storms, but coverage is expected to be lower than it was Sunday. We'll carry about 20-30% PoPs over the Hill Country, but confidence is low in overall location and timing of rain. While the RRFS is more over the Hill Country, the HRRR, FV3, and NAM 3km have seabreeze convection over the Coastal Plains. In any matter, coverage is not expected to be widespread and it shouldn't hamper plans too much for the holiday.

Temperatures are expected to steadily climb through midweek as high pressure slides further south and east. Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s and low 100s. With added moisture in the air, it'll feel even hotter at times Monday and Tuesday, as heat indices climb into the 100-16 range.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The long term doesn't look much different than the short term as hot, mostly dry, and humid conditions continue through the second week of September. Medium range guidance is starting to hint at a frontal boundary making its way south into north Texas by late this weekend and into early next week. For now, this doesn't look like it will cool things off much, however, for what it's worth, but the GFS and ECMWF and their ensembles agree that some sort of more effective pattern change may be in order towards the 3rd weekend of the month. We will hold out hope for this change as the heat hasn't let up since early August.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area sites through Tuesday morning. A light southerly wind flow and even variable at times is forecast for the morning with speeds ranging from 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening and back to light tonight into Tuesday morning. Limited shower and storm activity across the local area to keep terminals convection-free.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 98 77 100 77 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 77 99 77 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 76 99 76 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 75 97 75 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 76 100 76 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 98 77 / 20 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 100 78 101 78 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.