textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Warm temperatures persist through the end of the work week with most areas remaining dry.

- Increased moisture brings scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend with perhaps a slight drop in temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A mid to upper level ridge extends from northwestern Mexico to the northern Great Plains with a trough from the Great Lakes to the ArkLaTex region. This was producing weak cyclonic flow over Texas. The remnants of a frontal boundary was over North Texas and winds on the south side of this boundary were from the southeast except where the pressure field has been disrupted by convection over the Edwards Plateau. Convection last evening cooled temperatures over the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains. As the pressure field gets re-established the temperatures will recover. The overall pattern will change very little. The upper ridge will start to strengthen, but may still be weak enough for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. It looks like the most likely locations will be over the Rio Grande Plains and the Coastal Plains where the seabreeze could bring convection. Chances will still be around 20%. By Wednesday the upper ridge will once again be strong enough to suppress all convection. Temperatures through the short term period will be near normal.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The upper ridge will strengthen further Thursday keeping the weather hot and dry. Temperatures will stay fairly steady. Friday another upper trough will ride over the ridge into the middle of the country and will weaken the ridge over Texas. This weakening of the ridge will coincide with a surge of moisture from the Gulf. The result will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday afternoon and continuing until Monday. Right now the best chances look to be Saturday when the PW is forecast to be the highest. Although it's very early to talk about specific rain amounts, model PW forecast would suggest a chance for locally heavy rain. The trend tonight is for lower overall rain chances. With the weaker ridge over the weekend temperatures will be a few degrees lower over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this morning. The pocket of MVFR ceilings is generally across the central portions of the region, including the San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF). Otherwise, there is greater mid to high clouds to the west with a weak upper level disturbance. THis disturbance is generating a couple light rain showers along the Rio Grande, and a shower could get close to KDRT this morning. Otherwise, rain chances today are lower than yesterday but a stray to isolated shower could still develop this afternoon or evening along the Balcones Escarpment or near the I-35 corridor. However, areal coverage and confidence remains too low to include any mentions of -SHRA within the TAF package across those sites. South-southeast to east-southeaterly winds should remain of around 10 kt or less with occasional higher gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 97 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 75 96 75 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 94 74 95 74 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 77 98 78 / 20 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 77 97 77 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 74 95 74 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 75 96 75 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 94 76 95 75 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.