textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A more humid and unsettled weather pattern in place through the upcoming week with daily rain and thunderstorm chances

- Several opportunities for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain this weekend into early next week; Sunday is day with highest confidence for areas along and north of I-35 and Highway 90.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A humid airmass has developed over the region and will remain in place into next week given persistent southeasterly flow in the low levels. Today and Friday will be similar with mainly shower activity in the mornings followed by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. There is some indication activity could last into the overnight hours but a general waning trend is expected after sunset each evening. With decent instability but limited deep layer shear, storms will likely be disorganized and non-severe in nature, though stronger storms may produce gusty wind up to around 40 mph. Given the above normal precipitable water values, locally heavy downpours with a quick 1 to 3 inches will be possible with activity today. Some guidance does indicate a higher totals today, though exactly where we could see any higher amounts is still uncertain. There is some suggestion a disturbance in over Mexico could generate slow moving storms that move east into locations along the Rio Grande bringing higher totals late tonight into Friday that warrants watching. All in all, cannot rule out localized flooding in this moisture rich environment both today and tomorrow.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the 70s to low 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be on the warmer side given the persistent cloud cover falling only into the 60s each night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A longwave trough deepens off the coast of the northwestern US Saturday and gradually shifts over the southwestern US into early next week. This feature allows for persistent southwesterly flow aloft over Texas as multiple embedded shortwaves move over the area during this time bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms into next week.

During the day Saturday, showers and isolated thunderstorms will be the main weather over South Central Texas while further northwest strong to severe storms develop closer to the dryline as a shortwave passes over the area. The risk for severe weather increases Saturday night in the west as these thunderstorms move east and could reach the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains or the western Hill Country late that night. Any storms that move over the area could produce large hail or damaging wind gusts, though they may be weakening the further east they go. SPC continues to highlight this risk now in the Day 3 timeframe over the areas mentioned above.

For Sunday, chances for severe weather increase as better forcing shifts further east closer to our area. Moderate instability and deep layer shear will be present this day along with steep lapse rates bringing the risk for isolated severe thunderstorms to our area. SPC highlights more of our area for a severe risk over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and I-35 corridor. The most favorable timing for this would be in the afternoon and evening on Sunday.

For both Saturday and Sunday, any thunderstorm would be capable of producing heavy rainfall as precipitable water values peak at around 1.75 to 2 inches over our area. Rainfall rates with storms could be intense and the there is the potential for isolated flash flooding with storm activity.

The trough to the west begins to shift east into the Central Plains Monday night into mid-week with continued southwesterly flow over our area. Rain chances remain in the forecast each day for at least some portions of South Central Texas, though they have lowered for Monday. Chances for severe weather will remain into mid-week mainly focused on the northern half of the area, though its too far out to provide details. Keep up with the forecast through the weekend into next week and always have a way to receive warning information.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The ceiling at AUS has lifted to VFR while San Antonio and Del Rio remain MVFR. The San Antonio and Del Rio terminals should get back to VFR within the next hour or two. All terminals will be VFR through the afternoon. Chances for showers or thunderstorms will begin out west this afternoon, and spread to the east this evening. Ceilings will drop to MVFR late this evening at all airports. There will continue to be low chances for convection overnight, but too low to include in the TAFs. Ceilings will remain low through the 24 hour point of this period. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 65 80 65 / 40 50 60 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 65 80 65 / 50 50 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 64 80 65 / 60 60 60 30 Burnet Muni Airport 79 63 78 64 / 30 40 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 65 82 67 / 40 40 30 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 64 80 65 / 30 40 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 79 63 80 65 / 60 60 50 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 65 80 65 / 60 60 60 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 65 80 65 / 50 40 60 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 65 80 66 / 60 60 60 30 Stinson Muni Airport 81 66 81 67 / 50 70 60 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.