textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally heavy rainfall possible late Thursday into early Friday across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau.

- Rain chances continue for most areas Saturday, then shift into the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 on Sunday.

- Warmer early next week, with some low rain chances mainly along and east of I-35.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

We will continue to monitor convective trends west of the Rio Grande early this morning. Hi-res guidance suggests some of this activity could eventually reach the Rio Grande plains of south central Texas. Otherwise, the latest data suggests some isolated to scattered showers and storms may develop farther east into portions of the I- 35 corridor and coastal plains early this morning as some weak shortwave activity moves in from the southwest. Daytime heating should bring an increase in coverage of convection to the region as convective temperatures are reached within a moisture-rich environment. Slow moving cells will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning strikes.

Late Thursday night into early Friday still looks interesting for some heavy rainfall potential. Several disturbances ahead of an upper low will approach the Rio Grande while ahead of the low we see an increase in precipitable water values up to near 2" for a good portion of south central Texas. Convection developing off the higher terrain of Mexico will likely have enough support to move eastward into the Rio Grande plains late Thursday or very early on Friday. The global models continue to show some of the higher precipitation amounts over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains region as this area will be in closer proximity to the stronger source of lift. As the upper low slowly moves eastward during the daytime hours on Friday, some additional lift will move across the region in the southwesterly flow aloft. This will aid in rain chances expanding eastward across the remainder of south central Texas, especially during the peak heating hours.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The above mentioned upper low will finally begin to lift northward across west Texas on Saturday. Moisture levels will still remain high across our region and we should see another round of scattered afternoon/early evening convection on Saturday. A drying trend is in store on Sunday, with fairly low chances for rain confined to areas along and east of I-35/I-37.

The subtropical ridge begins to build over Texas as we head into the middle of next week. This will lead to a mostly dry forecast along with a slow warming trend. A few afternoon showers and storms may develop over the coastal plains region, but chances will likely remain low.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible with low clouds overnight through late Thursday morning. VFR flight conditions should then return toward and throughout the day. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storm activity may be possible during Thursday afternoon but confidence is not high enough to include in this TAF package. The winds will remain of light to moderate speeds out of the east to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 73 86 73 / 40 30 40 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 73 86 73 / 40 30 40 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 71 85 71 / 40 30 40 70 Burnet Muni Airport 84 71 83 71 / 30 20 40 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 72 84 71 / 10 60 60 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 72 85 72 / 40 30 30 70 Hondo Muni Airport 86 72 83 70 / 20 40 60 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 72 86 72 / 40 20 40 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 72 87 73 / 50 20 40 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 73 85 73 / 30 30 50 70 Stinson Muni Airport 87 73 85 72 / 20 20 50 80

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.