textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Level 1 of 5 risk of isolated severe storms for Rio Grand Plains and parts of the southern Edwards Plateau late this afternoon into this evening.

- Warm and humid conditions continue through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday after a strong cold front moves through.

- Active weather pattern continues through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Most of the area should continue to remain warm and dry through this afternoon into this evening as upper-level ridging begins to influence our area. The one exception being the Rio Grande Plains and parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau. Hi-Res guidance has been quite consistent with convection forming over Northern Mexico/near the border and pushing northeastward into and across Val Verde County. A weak shortwave trough moving out of northern Mexico should provide enough lift along with an advancing dryline over West TX for storms should they fire. Additionally, while some weak capping remains in place along with weak low-level flow most of this is offset by somewhat strong westerly flow aloft. Meaning any storms that do form will be capable of large to perhaps very large (2+ inches) hail. There are still some questions as to whether convection will form however as the area has been locked underneath a pretty stout cloud deck for most of the day. Most of this activity should weaken as nocturnal cooling happens after sunset. As such, SPC has expanded there level 1 of 5 risk to include Val Verde, Edwards, and Kinney counties. most places again should remain dry this evening with lows for most right around 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies.

Friday should be what is likely the nicest day of the next several even though it'l be quite warm and rather breezy for most. Highs should range from the upper 80s to low 90s. By late Friday evening we start to feel the influence of a deep trough that continues progressing eastward towards the area and eventually brings a cold front to our doorstep by Saturday morning(more on that in the long term)

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

This front will move across the entirety of South Central Texas by mid to late afternoon bringing with it relatively high chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. PWAT values increase ahead of the front ranging from 1.5-1.75 inches. With deep moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Saturday. However the front looks to move through rather quickly thus limiting the potential for any flooding concerns. One other thing to note is that there may be a narrow line of convection that forms ahead of this front however most activity should form behind the line albeit remain elevated and sub severe thus bringing in some much needed rain for the majority of our area.

The front should be well south of area by Sunday with only lingering slight chances of rain showers and isolated storms across the western half of our area. Sunday night into Monday expect rain chances to increase with more off and on rain showers as another disturbance influenced by southwesterly flow crosses over our area. We continue to see chances of rain and isolated storms continuing into Tuesday.

After this cold front moves through expect much chillier high temperatures Sunday in the 60s to near 70 and especially Monday with highs possibly not even getting out of the 50s in the Hill Country and 60s everywhere else as CAA continues. We finally return to southerly low-level flow helping us to gradually warm back up for the rest of the week along with more chances for showers and storms as we continue to remain in an active weather pattern.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR ceilings should return to all sites shortly, but DRT may hold onto 2000k foot ceilings for another hour. SAT, confidence is a bit lower, but went with VFR for the start of this TAF with breaks in the cloud deck expected soon. Winds will remain southeasterly through the period, with gusty winds expected to develop late tomorrow morning and last through Friday. MVFR ceilings return tonight after 06Z. There is a 30-40% chance for IFR ceilings to develop at SAT and SSF, but confidence is too low to introduce them at this time, especially given breezier winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 90 65 76 / 0 0 10 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 91 66 77 / 0 0 10 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 90 66 78 / 0 0 0 50 Burnet Muni Airport 67 87 59 70 / 0 10 20 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 92 66 77 / 30 0 20 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 89 63 73 / 0 0 10 60 Hondo Muni Airport 66 92 64 77 / 0 0 10 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 90 66 78 / 0 0 0 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 88 68 81 / 0 0 0 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 91 67 79 / 0 0 10 50 Stinson Muni Airport 70 92 69 81 / 0 0 0 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.