textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Drier, with summer-like temperatures through the weekend.

- A Pacific cold front may bring widespread rain next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Hot and mostly uneventful weather will be in place across South- Central Texas through Saturday. The overhead ridge will flatten out and relocate farther south, but will still maintain a firm grip on the local weather in the short-term. Lows tonight/Saturday morning north of Interstate 10 will be a notch cooler than they have been on previous days due to the presence of drier continental air. More humid air returns with southeasterly flow Saturday, accompanied by highs in the 90s. The occasional spread of cirrus over the area will be an indicator that the ridge is beginning to give way, though opportunities for rain today and tomorrow are meager, with only very low chances for a sporadic shower over the Rio Grande Plains today and over the Edwards Plateau Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Early next week, the ridge will have dropped south enough to result in northwesterly flow in the upper troposphere. Temperatures will stay stubbornly and unseasonably hot during the early week period as the redirected airflow will still be drawing from the warm Mexican plateau airmass, but the displaced ridge will enable low-end opportunities for an isolated shower or storm over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Sunday afternoon/evening and Monday afternoon/evening. Chances remain below 20%.

The primary feature of interest next week is a trough forecast to move across the southwestern US and Intermountain West on Tuesday, approaching our area during the midweek timeframe. There continues to be ample disagreement across models regarding the speed of this trough Tuesday onwards and how it interacts with moisture from Hurricane Polo in the eastern Pacific. A substantial plume of tropical moisture is highly likely expected to spread across the southwestern US, and chances for heavy rain are higher west and north of our area, but the speed and width of the trough will influence how much of that deep moisture spreads east into our region. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that ensemble members remain evenly split in the slow/fast trough outcomes, though the EPS shows a slight disposition towards the slower solution and the GEFS shows a slight disposition towards the faster solution. Some trends towards a slower trough have been noted. Regardless, the overall pattern is favorable for rain, with chances for widespread rain starting as early as Tuesday and continuing into Friday. It should be noted that these chances are spread across several days due to uncertainties in timing, and most of the model QPF fields suggest that the bulk of rain from this potential event will likely fall mainly on one or two days during this timeframe rather than through the entire period.

The trough is expected to bring along with it a Pacific cold front, and as with the trough itself, the timing of the front is uncertain. Although most models suggest that deep-layer flow won't support a cooler airmass cleanly surging into the area, the combination of the front and potential for widespread rains are forecast to drag temperatures closer to near normal, with potential for highs dropping into the 80s during the latter half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Conditions remain predominantly VFR, though another brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible at SAT, SSF and DRT Saturday morning. Confidence is medium for ceilings tomorrow and have only included TEMPOs at this time. A south to east wind under 12 knots is expected, though we could some occasional gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 74 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 97 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 70 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 95 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 97 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 94 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 95 74 97 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.