textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms through this evening

- Additional rain/storm chances during midweek with potential for isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall

- Seasonably mild temperatures expected Thursday with above normal temperatures for the remainder of the next week and especially next weekend

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

We continue to see pulsating storms over the southern two thirds of the area. This is due largely in part to isentropic forcing. As we have abundant moisture and warm air aloft at the 700mb level with winds flowing southerly. While at the surface winds remain northerly. So what we have is warm moist flow overriding cool northerly flow helping to feed these storms that we have been seeing pulse repeatedly this morning into this afternoon. As such, some short term guidance suggests that we could see this moisture boundary shift northward with time thus also shifting the thunderstorm potential northward. So far, most of this activity has remained below severe limits as these storms remain elevated in convection with the cold front well south of the area. The main concerns with the remaining storms that form closer to this frontal axis is mainly large hail. As such, SPC has put extreme southern counties (Frio, Atascosa, Wilson, Karnes, and DeWitt) into a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather with the only threat being large hail. Additionally, any of these storms will be capable of heavy rainfall with WPC highlighting areas along and south of a Uvalde to New Braunfels to Hallettsville line in a level 1 of 4 risk. Storms should settle down and dissipate as we get closer to this evening.

For tonight expect some areas of fog developing as the storms dissipate with perhaps some light drizzle as well as moisture remains trapped across the area. Lows should remain in the upper 50s north to low 60s south under mostly cloudy skies. For monday expect clouds to break up slightly with maybe some peaks of sun before our next disturbance approaches from the west. Highs Monday will be very dependent on cloud cover with those seeing clouds break up surge into the low 80s while those stuck under the cloud deck may only reach the mid to upper 70s. Lows Monday night will be quite warm with everyone remaining in the 60s and perhaps closer to 70 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

As briefly mentioned in the short term our next disturbance is a cutoff low that is currently located over the Baja peninsula. This low begins to traverse its way eastward and rejoins the upper level flow and eventually moves over our area by Tuesday. Models are still having difficulty in run to run continuity but the general consensus is that we should see enough forcing and instability to see storms fire across the region. How much moisture and instability there is remains to be a big question mark. PWATS continue to be advertised well above climatology for early March which maintains the potential for locally heavy rainfall during this timeframe. For now have stuck with blended guidance which shows high storm chances 60 to 90 percent for most of the area on Tuesday and Tuesday night with rain/storm chances greatly diminishing by midday Wednesday as the trailing cold front quickly moves off to the east.

Once this low departs so does our chances for rain as the upper level flow moves well north of our area and becomes much more zonal as compared to the wavy pattern we have had the past week. Temperatures during this period with the exception of Thursday( CAA behind the front) should remain above average for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. As we approach next weekend we could be looking at highs approaching 90. Continue to check back to the forecast as we get closer and things continue to come into better focus.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Flight weather conditions are forecast to lower categories from MVFR to IFR late this evening to LIFR overnight into Monday morning. Patchy fog develops overnight through Monday morning across most of South Central Texas. Can't rule out isolated pockets of dense fog along I-35 corridor including the Austin and San Antonio airports. MVFR conditions return late Monday morning or closer to 18Z time frame. VFR conditions come back mid to late afternoon. Light and variable winds tonight into the overnight hours across the area airports, however, a light southerly flow is likely to prevail this evening into Monday morning before wind speeds come up to the 10 to 12 knots range. By the way, the thunderstorm activity across KSAT is about to come to an end within the next hour as storms move away from the airport and any new development should be showers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 84 68 83 / 30 20 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 83 67 83 / 30 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 83 67 84 / 20 20 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 60 81 66 79 / 20 10 10 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 82 67 85 / 20 10 30 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 83 67 81 / 20 10 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 59 81 64 84 / 30 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 83 67 83 / 20 20 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 84 69 84 / 10 20 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 62 82 68 83 / 30 20 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 63 84 69 85 / 20 20 10 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.