textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Mild to warm conditions continue through next week.

- Mostly dry with spotty rain chances (below 50% for most areas) through Wednesday.

- Rain chances increase Thursday into Friday (40%-80%).

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Onshore flow is slightly stronger this afternoon thanks to the positioning of ridging over the Mississippi Valley and troughing over the Intermountain West, and this is helping to produce a steady southeasterly breeze. While high amplitude ridging has spread a drier airmass over the Gulf, sufficient moisture advection at the 925 to 700mb layer enables spotty low-topped showers this afternoon and early evening for the Winter Garden region, though rain chances are low (about 15 percent). The showers observed so far today near and along I-37 have been weak, and any additional activity later this afternoon should be similar. The moisture should make tonight marginally more mild than previous nights, with most lows in the 60s. A few light streamer showers may continue tonight over the southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande, but rain amounts will be marginal.

This weak moisture plume continues Sunday as troughing ejects out of the Southwestern US into the Rockies and eventually the High Plains. Rainwise, the trough is too distant to produce much activity over our area aside from perhaps a fleeting light shower over the Rio Grande Plains or southern Edwards Plateau (less than 10 percent chance). For most, the trough will serve to push cirrus and altostratus across our skies which will help temper Sunday afternoon's temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. A patch of dry low-level air currently over the southeastern US is forecast to pass over our area early Monday as it cycles around the eastern US ridging. This is forecast to support cooler temperatures Sunday night/Monday morning, with lows in the mid 50s forecast north of Interstate 10.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

The start of next week leans on the dry side, but active troughing over the western half of the US and the nearby subtropical jet stream will gradually expand over the area over the course of the week and introduce opportunities for rain chances. The passage of a pair of troughs over the Great Plains will help pull a fetch of moist air into South Central Texas on Tuesday. The synoptic forcing is weak, but the slight warm/moist advection leads to 20-40 percent rain chances Tuesday in the form of isolated showers, favoring the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains northwestward to the Edwards Plateau. Overall amounts from these rains skew light in the latest synoptic guidance with models projecting areal totals of a few tenths of an inch.

A brief round of shortwave ridging Wednesday suggests brief intermission from synoptically driven activity, though continued onshore flow keeps the door open for isolated to widely scattered coastal/seabreeze showers during the day with rain chances of 20 to 45 percent that afternoon and evening.

Following these lower profile opportunities for rain, the weather pattern evolves to a more conducive one with better chances for scattered to more widespread rains later in the week. Strengthening mid- to upper-level flow aloft, along with several nodes of vorticity embedded within the subtropical jet, are expected to pull a larger plume overlapping moisture from the Gulf and eastern Pacific. Most models involve remnant moisture and perhaps some vorticity from Hurricane Vance in this plume as it gets sheared by the aforementioned jet. Owing to a lack of organized vorticity, current ensembles generally don't show a front or otherwise enhanced baroclinicity to concentrate this moisture. This tends to favor a broader distribution of showers and storms fanning out over South Central Texas as activity pushes south to north. The rain chances accompanying this pattern pick up Thursday afternoon, and there is good consensus among the dynamical and ML-based models that those chances should peak late Thursday into Friday. The peak rain chances are slightly higher over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau (above 70 percent) where the strongest moisture flux is anticipated (near 500 kg/m/s^2 of integrated vapor transport on the latest ENS), but rain chances across the entire area are above 40 percent. At this time this rainfall looks broadly beneficial in magnitude with the heavy rain signal looking low across the current guidance. Rain chances linger into Saturday, but chances begin decreasing as vorticity proceeds past the area and the flow aloft becomes more zonal.

The broad troughing over the western US will help keep temperatures generally stable this upcoming week, varying mainly based on cloud cover and rain. Highs are forecast to stay in the upper 70s to mid 80s for most of the area, with lows responding to the regional moisture by staying in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Few changes to the previous forecast with VFR ceilings expected at AUS, SAT, and SSF through the period, while MVFR is expected to develop early tomorrow morning at DRT. Winds have been gusty at times today and will remain breezy at DRT through this forecast period. Expect a switch to more easterly winds at SAT and SSF before returning to ESE by late Sunday morning. Increasing mid to upper level clouds are noted on the latest forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 62 82 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 81 65 80 / 20 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 63 82 59 82 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 83 61 83 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.