textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures through the next week.

- A better rain and storm potential Saturday, but trending weaker slightly.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1213 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Rain areas are clearing to the east and leaving most of us disappointed in the light rainfall amount totals. Enough moisture made it to the surface to perk up the dew points and with light overnight winds underneath the shortwave low overhead, some early morning fog could potentially get dense in a few spots. The fog shouldn't be a problem after daybreak because the cold front to follow the trough gets some momentum and clears out some of the low level moisture. There could be a mostly cloudy layer for much of the day, but there doesn't appear to be much of a cold air bubble from this front, as the consensus of models all depict highs above normal for mid February.

An upper ridge quickly replaces the shortwave for today and brings a return flow pattern by Thursday. MOS guidances show still enough northerly winds tonight, eliminating the fog concern for early Thursday, at least for now.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1213 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

An upper level ridge remains perched over TX while to the west the flow aloft is SW as another trough begins digging into the Baja CA region by Friday. This continues to load low level moisture into the area as our next weather-making system is set to arrive for Saturday. The current set-up would be sufficient for an area of enhanced PWat values and a potential for a few strong storms. However, there are some timing and storm track concerns that could still foil our plans to welcome some much needed rain. The dProg/Dt analysis of the GFS shows a upper system trending to lift farther north into TX with time while the ECM show an equally deep but slower moving system. Either of those scenarios could play out to minimize rainfall potential over what we are seeing in the current model runs. The Ensembles appear to be well within agreement of the latest deterministic runs, and the AI versions of the GFS/ECM also seem to suggest further weakening of the upper trough, at least as it would apply to South-Central TX. This type of analysis fits well within the mental model of underachieving upper troughs while we are still firmly on the negative phase of ENSO. It does appear that we should see more rain than with the current system overhead as the moisture in the low levels will be much more supportive for higher totals even if they are still on the low side.

Another trend that may shift is the warm and dry afternoon over western counties late Saturday. If the trends mentioned above holds true, we may see a weaker Pacific front and a delayed one at that. If these trends reverse going closer to Saturday, then the previously covered concerns for a low end severe event and fire weather issues might come back into focus.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The I-35 area sites are currently at MVFR as of 06Z. MVFR cigs may last another hour for KAUS, however, those conditions remain for KSAT and KSSF for several hours into the mid morning period as a slow moving frontal boundary pushes across South Central Texas. By 16Z or so, SCT035 cloud desk prevails across the local area with VFR cigs dominating. Northwest to north winds prevail for most of the overnight period through Wednesday afternoon with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. The I-35 terminals could see from time to time gusts up to 15 knots during the afternoon period. For KDRT, there is a period between 14Z and 15Z that cigs could lower to MVFR. Otherwise, KDRT stays at VFR conditions for most of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 52 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 50 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 52 79 58 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 71 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 50 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 52 80 56 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 51 80 58 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 52 80 60 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 55 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 55 80 60 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.