textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures arrive behind the cold front today and continue through the middle of next week.

- Showers and storms continue to push across the area through this evening with locally heavy rainfall still possible.

- Seasonable temps return by mid week as an active weather pattern continues.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Current radar imagery shows a line of showers and widely isolated thunderstorms out and ahead of a decent cold front working its way across the area. The atmosphere remains very moist across the area with PWATs still in the 1.5 to 1.8 in range. Currently the front is located just over the I-35 Corridor. Once this front passes through temps have dropped 10-15 degrees along with brief gusty northerly winds anywhere from 30-45 mph before settling down into the 25-30 mph range. Have added mention of this in the forecast until this evening. As it stands currently, the severe weather potential continues to be quite low with mostly rain showers occurring. The better forcing remains east of the I- 35 Corridor and into the Coastal Plains. SPC has maintained our severe risk which encompasses mainly areas along and east of a San Antonio to Austin line. The main risk at this point continues to be damaging winds as storms may reintensify as they encounter better forcing across this area. Additionally, if the front slows down as some Hi-Res models continue to indicate, then heavy rainfall becomes the main threat. WPC currently has majority of the area in a level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall with areas along and east of I-35 to New Braunfels line in a level 2 of 4 risk. the Latest 24 hr total QPF from the HREF continues to show totals anywhere from 3 to 5 inches. This seems plausible since PWATs are still very high and daytime heating is occurring out and ahead of the front leading to heavier downpours. Areas behind this front should see temps drop into the 50s and 60s as has been recently noted over the Hill Country. While areas along and ahead should be able to reach the upper 70s/low 80s.

For tonight expect temps to continue to tumble, bottoming out in the low 50s north to upper 50s south. Easter Sunday will be much colder with a persistent CAA on the backside it will feel downright chilly with highs struggling to break out of the 60s as the front remains stalled just to our south. Additionally, with off and on rain showers progressing across the area combined with the cloudy and cold northerly wind it will feel even colder. Sunday night lows will be slightly colder than tonights with some areas across the Hill Country dropping into the 40s while everywhere else should remain in the low to mid 50s(warmest south)as off and on showers continue and eventually move out of the area by sunrise Monday morning.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Expect highs Monday just a few degrees warmer as we transition from northerly low level flow into easterly helping the area to finally dry out. It looks like we stay in easterly flow until Wednesday as low pressure across the plains and upper level ridging help to keep westerly/northwesterly flow locked in place aloft thus limiting a rapid warmup over our area. Similarly, Global Models are still showing a low forming over the Baja peninsula mid week and then moving across Mexico and into West Texas either Thursday or Friday. Moisture at the surface looks fairly limited however there's enough vorticity and mid-level moisture to wring out a few showers or sprinkles. Kept pops around 20% to account for this low uncertainty. Otherwise expect a return to more seasonable temps with highs in the upper 70s/low 80s and lows in the 60s with periodic rain chances possible beyond Saturday. However, confidence remains low as models continue to struggle with the evolution of the large scale pattern beyond Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms is moving across I-35 terminals for the start of the period with strong, gusty wind and low IFR visibility associated with its passage. More disorganized showers are seen further west with this line which may impact KDRT over the next few hours. Around 21-22Z most of these storms will have moved south of terminals, though some lingering rain showers could remain through 23Z. Behind the front, gusty north wind is expected over the majority of the area continuing into tomorrow, easing only slightly overnight. At KDRT, winds decrease late evening and remain lighter through the rest of the period. MVFR to IFR ceilings this afternoon should lift to VFR closer to 00Z Sunday. MVFR ceilings could move back in and reach KSAT/KSSF near sunrise by confidence is low. Additional showers may develop Sunday morning and a PROB30 group has been introduced.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 54 71 53 74 / 20 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 54 70 52 73 / 30 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 69 52 73 / 30 20 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 51 69 50 71 / 10 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 58 66 55 70 / 30 50 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 51 68 51 71 / 10 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 54 67 52 68 / 30 30 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 54 69 52 73 / 30 20 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 55 71 53 73 / 40 20 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 56 68 54 72 / 30 20 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 56 68 55 71 / 30 30 30 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.