textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory for patchy to areas of dense fog through mid morning.

- Unsettled weather continues through Wednesday. Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. - Seasonably mild to cool temperatures expected Wednesday night through Thursday night with above normal temperatures for all other periods of the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 421 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Patchy to areas of dense fog have developed across much of South Central Texas early this morning. Expect this fog to linger through mid morning, then dissipate. As a result, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 10 AM CDT.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Cold front inversion is eroding slowly as the layer of saturation continues to lower toward the surface. Some patchy dense fog is possible, but also the southerly winds will pick up the pace to limit the coverage of dense fog. A cool start to today will end with increasing winds and ceilings breaking up to allow temperatures to return to above normal. The steepening pressure gradient over the Southern Plains will bend the low level winds to the southwest to speed up the warming trend. Some low rain chances are expected this morning mainly over the Hill Country. Little rain is expected in the late morning to mid afternoon, but a weak disturbance is expected to generate some convection over the Edwards Plateau this evening.

An upper low approaching from the west will help with this convection and keep the weather active over West Texas for the first part of Tuesday. Capping is likely over the eastern half of the forecast area through midday, but slow destabilization of the air should spread to all but the southeast counties as PWat moisture continues to deepen. Breezy and warm conditions continue, and there should be enough insolation in between clouds to get most areas back into the 80s. A few strong storms are possible, but we're more focused on the more organized activity expected after 00Z.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Late Tuesday, the upper low to the west contorts into an open trough oriented slightly in a positive tilt, which is typically a negative signal for rainfall potential in South TX. Winds prior to the arrival of the front have a chances to deplete the low level moisture and limit storm potential. However, the overall dynamics with this system still appears to be potent and some model solutions are showing the low holding on to some its more cut-off characteristics which could signal more severe storms and more heavy rain. The NBM is for now in happy medium between the two scenarios, and we are comfortable with the narrative approach of splitting the difference for some good rains, but mostly over NW counties where the storms will take some extra time materializing. Late Tuesday night, a more organized band of storms should be able to progress east faster and at a time when the nocturnal inflow winds will be weaker. Thus we anticipate the metro cities to see a local minima of severe activity with a weak squall/cold front arrival between 09Z and 15Z. With there being a trend from more than half the models in the past 24 hours deepening and slowing down the system after reaching Central TX, there will likely be some storm strengthening after 15Z over our far eastern counties Wednesday.

The remainder of the 7-day forecast leaves no opportunity for rain. The departing low should leave us at least 1 day of seasonably cool temperatures, but hot temperatures in the 80s to near 90 are suggested to return by next Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Flying conditions will deteriorate overnight to IFR/LIFR, possibly VLIFR by early morning. Then, conditions will slowly improve to VFR during the afternoon, only to deteriorate again Monday night. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA are possible near KDRT Monday evening and go with PROB30s for 10/00Z-06Z. Light and VRBL winds become S to SE at 7 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 25 KTs on Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 84 69 83 65 / 10 10 30 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 67 83 63 / 10 10 30 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 67 83 64 / 10 10 20 70 Burnet Muni Airport 82 67 80 62 / 10 10 50 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 67 84 58 / 0 20 50 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 67 82 62 / 10 10 40 80 Hondo Muni Airport 82 65 83 59 / 10 20 30 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 67 84 63 / 10 10 20 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 69 84 67 / 10 10 20 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 68 83 65 / 10 10 30 80 Stinson Muni Airport 83 69 85 65 / 10 10 20 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ171>173- 184>194-202>209-217>225-228.