textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium chances for isolated showers and storms late this afternoon and evening today.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through the week as an active weather pattern resumes.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Mid-level ridging has finally begun to move off to our north. At the same time an outflow boundary is noted to our north across Fort Worth's CWA. This boundary has surged southward recently as seen on vis satellite imagery. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to form out ahead of this. Recent Mesoanalysis shows PWATs above 1.5 and abundant MUCAPE values of up to 3000j/kg however deep layer shear and mid level lapse rates remain weak. So at most any storms that form could contain brief heavy downpours and some gusty winds. A secondary area we are watching is an inverted trough over the northern Gulf marching its way westward. As it does so expect isolated showers and storms to form out ahead of it mainly across the Coastal Plains and perhaps into the I-35 Corridor this evening. Recent Hi-Res models have suggested this activity could consolidate and make it westward all the way to the western Hill Country. Kept pops in to account for these two areas with most activity diminishing prior to midnight. SPC does have very small parts of our area in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather with wind being the main threat.

Temps have risen to near 90 in most areas, we should see temps climb a few more degrees with most topping out in the low 90s before the day ends. For tonight it will remain mild with most staying in the low to mid 70s as clouds increase overnight and moisture remains trapped across the area, leading to a warm and humid evening.

Starting Wednesday ridging over the eastern US and troughing over the western US will begin to provide an avenue for tropical moisture to stream northward into our region. Thus our active pattern continues as southwesterly flow aloft rears its head once again. With a dryline/shortwave remaining over west TX and a continued seabreeze pushing onshore into the coastal plains we could see a renewed threat of showers and storms across these areas however coverage should be isolated to spotty at best. With the continued high moisture in place any stronger thunderstorms could produce pockets of heavy rainfall. Add in the relatively weak forcing and some spots could receive a quick half inch to perhaps an inch if a storm stalls across an area, though most of this would remain highly localized, meaning most would should expect to stay dry.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

By Thursday an upper-level low is forecast to be positioned over Baja California before it ejects northeastward over Mexico and eventually moves into central to northern TX over the weekend. As it does so, we should see chances for showers and storms begin to increase. Several model ensembles suggest PWATs increasing to 1.8 to perhaps 2.00 inches+ meaning any storms that do form could have the potential to produce torrential rainfall. As such WPC does have us in a level 1 of 4 risk for Excessive Rainfall starting thursday and continuing each day through the weekend. It should be stressed that these patterns are notoriously difficult to pin down regarding individual rounds and amounts so far out in time. We should have a better handle and clarity on this as we get closer. but a wet pattern is expected for the long term continuing possibly into early next week. Stay tuned and check back to the forecast often.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

All terminals are VFR and will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will return to the Austin and San Antonio areas late overnight. VFR should return by late morning Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms that will likely reduce visibility to MVFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 74 89 72 88 / 30 40 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 89 72 88 / 30 40 40 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 88 71 87 / 30 50 50 40 Burnet Muni Airport 71 86 70 85 / 30 40 30 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 92 73 88 / 10 20 60 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 88 71 86 / 40 40 40 30 Hondo Muni Airport 73 88 71 86 / 20 30 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 89 71 88 / 30 40 40 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 88 72 87 / 30 40 30 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 88 73 87 / 20 40 50 30 Stinson Muni Airport 74 89 72 88 / 20 40 40 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.