textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Seasonably hot July temperatures continue.

- Low to medium rain/storm chances early week with the best chances Monday afternoon/evening from the Hill Country to I-35 corridor. Additional rain/storm chances possible next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Storms last night over Oklahoma left behind an outflow boundary along the Red River, which was evident in surface observations at 1 PM CDT Sunday. Radar also indicates a few gravity waves emanating southward at low- to mid-levels. These features are expected to continue moving south and serve as preferential zones for shower and storm development as conditions destabilize this afternoon, but the stronger activity is expected to take place to our north. Our northern counties over the southern Edwards Plateau eastward to the Austin metro may see the weakened and decaying end of these storms this evening into tonight, but most should stay dry.

This favorable zone for isolated development, anchored by the outflow boundary, will continue to be in our vicinity Monday, reinforced by northerly flow over Ozarks. This should provide another opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, this time initiating closer to South-Central Texas Monday afternoon to evening. The latest HREF and REFS straddle the boundary west to east from Val Verde County across the Hill Country to the Austin area by Monday afternoon with convectionally potentially initiating along that axis. Chances have trended upwards given favorable mid-level cooling, so rain chances tomorrow afternoon/evening have been raised to around 30-40%. Precip efficiency does not look especially favorable given high LCLs and lackluster moisture aloft, but slow storm motions could support 0.5-1.0 inch rain totals with an isolated pocket of 3 inches. For areas south of I-10, and for most areas to north before isolated storms and their associated clouds bring some cooling, expect another warm summer day Monday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and heat indices up to 105. Storms are likely to fizzle out and dissipate Monday evening heading into early Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The weak boundary aiding the isolated activity forecast today and Monday may persist into Tuesday, but should be more diffuse by then. Still, its presence supports a low chance (around 20 percent) of isolated shower and storms over South-Central Texas on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the trough along the Mississippi River drifts farther east and allows ridging overhead to recover some. This should lower rain chances over the second half of the workweek, returning to the typical summer fare of mostly dry weather aside from the occasional isolated seabreeze shower over the Coastal Plains.

The core of subtropical ridging and its accompanying mass of warm air are expected to slosh around the southwestern US and the Four Corners region through the week. Thus, temperatures in our area remain hot but don't look to change much during the week with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and lows in the mid to upper 70s. Stronger onshore flow of Gulf air Friday heading into the weekend should trade somewhat lower daytime temperatures in exchange for higher dew points. The ECMWF ensemble, deterministic, and AI guidance have been substantially more aggressive with lowering temperatures later this week with some members dropping into the low 90s or even upper 80s for afternoon temperatures. Cooling of that nature would necessitate rain-cooler air, which could be on tap heading into the weekend. Friday into Saturday, as the ridge intensifies over the Four Corners region, an upper-trough traversing its periphery over the Central Plains coinciding with this rise in Gulf moisture supports an increase in chances for showers and thunderstorms during the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

SCT clouds with bases around 5K AGL along with SCT high clouds will continue through this afternoon. Winds remain from the southeast and south, with DRT trending easterly by late evening. Low cloud development is anticipated overnight, as high clouds move in from the northwest. We will continue to mention MVFR cigs for the I-35 sites, with conditions possibly limited to a shorter duration if we manage to see a thicker layer of high clouds move in from the north. We will also monitor for the possibility of some convection over the Hill Country after Midnight. As of now, this activity is not expected to impact the I-35 sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 78 97 77 97 / 10 30 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 97 77 97 / 10 30 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 97 76 97 / 0 20 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 75 95 74 96 / 20 30 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 78 101 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 97 77 97 / 20 30 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 97 76 97 / 10 20 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 77 97 / 0 20 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.