textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Seasonably hot temperatures and persistent dry conditions for Thursday and Friday.

- Slightly above normal high temperatures over the holiday weekend. - Rain chances return to portions of southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains late Saturday night and then again Sunday and Monday afternoons with the slow passage of an upper level disturbance.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Clear skies are dominating most of South CenTral Texas early this Thursday morning. However, clouds are forecast to develop overnight and stay through late Thursday morning. We are not anticipating shower activity through this period, but can't rule out a straight shower or two across the Coastal Plains. Clouds burn-off in the afternoon for mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s over most locations. However, depending on how fast an inverted trough moves over east Texas coast during the day on Thursday, a few showers and even a thunderstorm can't be ruled out over the Coastal Plains.

The pattern repeats on Friday with clouds breaking in the afternoon giving way to mostly sunny and partly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 90s. Can't rule out a shower or two or even a thunderstorm across portions of the Coastal Plains and as far north as the I-35 corridor during the afternoon period as long as the upper level disturbance remains over the local area.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026 Saturday weather setup looks like we are going to be in the middle of upper level ridges with the inverted upper level trough closing into an upper level low over South Central Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are favored by the GFS model along the Rio Grande Plains and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau as the west Texas dry-line makes into the Rio Grande. However, the 00Z Thursday NAM and 12Z Wed ECMWF HiRes models are dry. Therefore, low confidence is in place as far as shower activity during that period. However, both GFS and ECMWF solutions bring showers and storms over the local area on Sunday but locations and timing differ. There is lingering shower activity on Monday with the subtropical ridge building back into our local area for the rest of the week, meaning dry and hot conditions come back.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Light winds overnight have led to more erratic sky trends than in days prior. MVFR CIGs may or may not make it into DRT but are seen to be on just about all sides. Meanwhile AUS didn't see clouds for most of the night but recently filled in with a pocket of IFR CIGs. SAT/SSF have been more predictable but will see erratic breaks in the CIG layer in the next couple hours. With the lighter winds and dry air above the Boundary Layer, we should see VFR skies by 15 or 16Z. A few gusts to 25 knot could occur at DRT, but daytime winds over I-35 will gust mainly below 20 knots. Late tonight, we should expect a slightly drier version of persistence in the timing of low MVFR or IFR CIGs returning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 96 76 97 76 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 76 96 76 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 94 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 94 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 93 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 95 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.