textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady warming trend through Wednesday.

- Low to medium (20-40%) rain/storm chances return for the middle to end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Dew points are steadily on the rise as humid Gulf air continues to stream in on a southerly wind. The extra moisture is keeping temperatures elevated, bringing a much more mild morning today. Along with increased cloudiness, some fog is possible this morning along the Balcones Escarpment, Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains with this arriving moisture. Clouds should disperse with daytime mixing, but continued southerly flow could make for slightly more stubborn clouds on the I-35 corridor. Areas that clear out fastest (likely closer to the Rio Grande) will quickly mix down a lobe of Mexican plateau air aloft with above-average warmth that is currently sloshing over our region. This air is forecast to lead to widespread highs above the mid 80s for most of the region, but for the sunnier spots along the Rio Grande and Winter Garden region those highs could spike into the upper 90s to near 100. Given the extra humidity, sunnier skies could help bring apparent temperatures into the 100 to 105 range, particularly south of US-90.

The dryline should push into the Edwards Plateau this afternoon, but strong capping makes shower/storm activity unlikely during the day and keeps most areas dry. However, a late-arriving mid-level impulse could provide enough lift to spark a thunderstorm over the plateau past midnight early Wednesday morning. Any activity would likely be isolated at best, and accompanying rain chances are low (about 20% at most). However, a sustained updraft could produce some large hail.

The dryline makes another eastward surge Wednesday afternoon, possibly as far east as the I-35 corridor. Highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s are forecast, but if the dryline moves past the Balcones Escarpment that could enhance compressional heating along I-35. The primary feature of interest Wednesday is a cold front that will be approaching the area. Due to a lack of stronger low-level flow, this front could be dragging its feet as it reaches the area, leading to ample spread among models with regard to its position and timing. The most likely period for now still looks to be Wednesday evening to early Thursday morning. It is worth noting that some models, particularly the NAM/NAM Nest, bring the front into our area as early as Wednesday morning. That said, the lackadaisically directed motion of the front suggests that the accompanying shift to cooler air and northerly winds won't be especially intense, but there could be some isolated showers and storms in/near the Austin area when the front contacts the dryline. Due to strong capping, these chances are low (20 to 30 percent), but strong wind shear and instability aloft implicate a conditional severe risk (mainly for large hail) should a storm develop. Current satellite images indicate a large area of haze in the SW Gulf from agricultural burning, which may spread into our area Wednesday and bolster the strength of capping in a manner not well captured by model guidance.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The cold front will bring noticeably cooler temperatures, with the current model blend projecting highs in the low 70s Thursday with lows Thursday night in the upper 50s to low 60s. The synoptic pattern does not favor cold air advection lasting very long, so we'll likely reverse course and reenter a warming trend promptly, returning to near to above average temperatures over the weekend.

The cooler air provided by the front provides a ramp for moist flow to rise atop the denser air and trigger showers and storms, which could occur along the front Thursday morning and behind the front on the subsequent days. Mid-level winds are forecast to be southwesterly and generally diffluent over our area between Thursday and Saturday ahead of a slow-moving trough, so that period is favored for some rain. The timing of those rains hinges heavily on when the trough ejects east and moves over our area. As noted in previous discussions, an early arrival would focus rain chances closer to Thursday and keep the weekend drier, while a later arrival would temporally broaden chances with an opportunity for a main event closer to Friday. Recent ensemble cluster analyses show a very slight preference for the slower outcome, but only by a small margin. The timing of the primary rains could influence the nature of the storms, with later timing more likely to be surface-based rather than elevated. Continue to check back with the forecast as the synoptic pattern and rain chances come into better focus.

Ensemble mean fields indicate that there could be a second cold front early next week as northerly winds materialize in the upper- levels, which may bring another opportunity for rain. This potential pattern is reflected in the CPC 6-10 outlook, which indicates a 40 to 60 percent chance of above normal precipitation next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Boundary layer winds are running 25-35 knots and that has helped keep the low clouds mixed enough to where most CIGs are stuck in MVFR. SAT is currently IFR and SSF was allocated to have a brief IFR in the next hour. The rest of the sites should stay MVFR. A nominal hour of MVFR is allocated for DRT, but it's too hard to see through the streaming high clouds on where the progress of the leading edge of stratus has reached. Mixing out to VFR skies should occur around noon and Some gusts to 22 knots are listed for AUS/SAT. Tonight the approach of a front into Central TX could lighten the gradient and lead to light winds and therefore some more widespread IFR conditions. There could also be some convection toward daybreak, but currently PoPs for then are generally below 25 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 74 88 61 / 0 10 30 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 74 88 63 / 0 10 30 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 72 88 62 / 0 0 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 89 71 86 57 / 0 20 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 72 93 66 / 0 20 0 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 73 86 60 / 0 10 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 92 73 89 64 / 0 10 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 73 88 63 / 0 0 30 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 74 87 64 / 0 0 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 74 88 65 / 0 10 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 91 74 89 66 / 0 10 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.