textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Seasonably hot temperatures continue through the holiday weekend.

- Continued summer heat for next week and mostly rain free.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

High clouds pushing from west Texas into the southern Edwards Plateau are forecast to continue to push eastward throughout the overnight and Saturday morning. Low clouds develop during the overnight hours and continue through mid Saturday morning. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the low 70s across portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau to mid and upper 70s elsewhere.

The subtropical high strengthens as it builds between New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle throughout the day on Saturday. This setup translates to sinking air resulting in dry and hot conditions across South Central Texas. Forecast highs range from the mid to upper 90s to 100 over spots along the Rio Grande. Heat index values are forecast to range from 100 to 107. Can't rule out a few spots getting to the 108 mark for an hour or two. Based on the position of the subtropical high and how strong is it, not expecting to see shower or thunderstorm activity. If they manage to form, then very isolated activity for a short period of time.

With the subtropical high in control as we enter into Sunday, similar weather conditions of those from Saturday are forecast for Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 90s and up to 100 along the Rio Grande Plains. Heat index values are forecast to range from 100 to 107. Can't rule out a few spots getting to the 108 mark for an hour or two.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Dry and hot conditions are forecast for the work week with the persistent of the subtropical high over the Texas region. However, during the day on Monday, the subtropical high weakens and moves to the four corners region while an upper level short wave pushes across northern and eastern Texas areas. It looks like outflow boundaries along several storms could make into parts of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau on Monday evening. Both GFS and ECMWF models show activity while the NAM keeps it dry. The NBM solution has it and therefore keeping those slight probabilities (20 percent). There is an inverted upper level trough across the local area on Tuesday while the subtropical ridge stays over the four corners region. Afternoon heating along with this weakness could bring some showers and storms across the Hill Country. By Wednesday, a similar setup of Tuesday is forecast, however, drier conditions are in store. The subtropical high builds back to the east and into our area on Thursday into Friday to end rain chances for the latter part of the week including next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are ongoing early this morning with a batch of both low clouds and passing high level clouds. The San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF) will be the most impacted TAF sites with these MVFR conditions through mid-morning. The MVFR ceilings could briefly advance into KAUS as well, but should remain more short lived compared to the San Antonio TAF sites. Locations along the Rio Grande, including KDRT, could see some low clouds arrive after sunrise as well but likely remain VFR with the sky coverage more few to scattered. VFR conditions return to all sites by late morning into the afternoon. After midnight into Sunday morning, low clouds return and could again lead to a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions once more. Winds through the period will remain south-southeasterly of light to moderate speeds. Gusts occasionally could reach into the 20 to 23 kt range at a few of the sites, particularly KSAT and KDRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 80 100 80 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 98 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.