textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire weather concerns continue Friday and Saturday.

- A widespread freeze in store Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows mainly in the 20s.

- Rain chances return to most areas late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with the higher rainfall amounts aimed at the coastal plains region.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1248 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Early afternoon observations show temperatures have warmed into the 60s to near 70 across south central Texas as a cold front drops southward through western and north Texas. The front will continue to move southward this afternoon and cold air advection will halt or reverse the morning temperature trends over the southern Edwards Plateau into the Hill Country. These areas are still on track to peak in the lower to mid 60s, while plenty of sunshine will boost temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s elsewhere.

Behind the cold front, gusty north winds will persist through most of this evening, then gradually diminish into Saturday morning. Cold air advection will be enough to drop lows to at or below freezing over most of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, with mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere. On Saturday, high pressure remains intact and strengthens during the late morning and afternoon as another surge of cool air drops into the southern U.S. plains. Highs will peak in the 50s for most locations, except near 60 degrees along the Rio Grande. The gusty north winds and dry air will continue to result in increasing fire weather concerns on Saturday. Please see the below Fire Weather section for more information.

Northerly winds remain gusty through early evening on Saturday, then decrease through the overnight hours. With very dry air in place (dewpoints in the single digits and teens) and decreasing winds, radiational cooling will take place. Look for overnight lows in the 20s for most spots, with some upper teens possible in the wind-protected valleys of the Hill Country. A Freeze Warning will be needed for those counties yet to see a widespread freeze this year.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1248 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Highs on Sunday will nudge upward slightly as south to southwest winds quickly return during the afternoon hours. We still expect temperatures to remain below climatological normals for this time of year, with mid 50s to lower 60s in store. Southerly flow in the lower levels continues into Monday, but another front is noted across north Texas. Will monitor this front for the possibility of lower daytime highs across portions of the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor from near Austin northward. We opted to bump cloud cover up a bit across the coastal plains as some moisture begins to move northward.

Some weak disturbances will move in from the southwest and this will aid in some light rain developing over the Rio Grande plains south of Del Rio Tuesday morning. Rain chances (albeit initially fairly low) will gradually spread east and northeast into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains by Wednesday morning. For now it appears the best opportunity for rain will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening over the coastal plains region where moisture levels and stronger warm air advection will align. Rain chances will largely shift east of the region Thursday, with expected total rainfall amounts ranging from near 0.25" along I-35 to near 1" in the coastal plains. Zonal flow aloft will result in a warming and drying trend on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR flying conditions will continue under mostly to completely clear skies through the coming TAF period. A cold front will move through the region this afternoon bringing strong, gusty northerly winds. The gusts should fall off late this evening with sustained speeds staying around 10 kts. There is some guidance showing speeds dropping below 10 kts during the overnight hours, but we will keep the higher speeds in the TAFs. Another surge of cold air Saturday will increase winds again by late morning continuing through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1248 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in effect until 8 PM for all of south central Texas today as gusty north winds and dry air move in this afternoon behind a cold front. More gusty north winds are anticipated on Saturday and with dry air already in place, we have opted to issue a Red Flag Warning for all of south central Texas. The Red Flag Warning will run from 10 AM until 8 PM Saturday for critical fire weather conditions. We've seen a recent uptick in fire activity and with dry grass fuel loading largely cured and above normal (especially near I-35 westward into the Hill Country), prefer to have a Red Flag Warning in effect on Saturday. As mentioned above, rain chances return to most areas late Tuesday into Wednesday, with wetting rains favored generally along and east of I-35.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 37 55 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 36 55 23 62 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 39 55 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 33 50 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 36 61 26 62 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 34 53 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 38 58 25 60 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 38 56 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 39 56 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 40 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 40 58 28 61 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CST Saturday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.