textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Seasonably hot temperatures continue through the holiday weekend.

- Continued summer heat for next week and mostly rain free.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Sunny and hot weather prevails across South-Central Texas today and should set a warm summer backdrop this evening for any Independence Day festivities. Temperatures around sunset tonight will be in the mid 80s to around 90 under mostly clear skies. Onshore flow today is a touch less direct than yesterday but could support a stray shower or two in the late afternoon over the Coastal Plains, though an incursion of dry mid-level air accompanying a passing upper-trough should limit rain chances.

Overnight lows tonight into Sunday morning will again be in the 70s. Sunday should offer quite similar weather as the ridge supplying our calmer weather remains in place. Slightly weaker ridging mainly to the north and east supports somewhat better chances for an isolated shower during the day. Residual shower and thunderstorm from outflow boundaries produced by convection over Oklahoma and North Texas could also venture towards the TX-71 corridor and Austin area Sunday evening, but weak shear and instability will limit their strength and duration. Rain chances for this area are around 20 percent. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny and dry weather Sunday with highs in the mid 90s to around 100 and heat indices peaking between 96 and 104 for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The temperature forecast throughout next week stays seasonably hot with highs in the 90s to around 100, lows in the mid to upper 70s, and peak heat indices generally in the 100-105 range.

The overall pattern favors dry conditions persisting for the region, but as the overhead ridge rotates and gravitates slowly westward, the resulting weakness in ridging and lowered subsidence over our area invites some scattershot opportunities for isolated rain. As noted in the Short Term forecast, models generally support a remnant outflow boundary or weak frontal axis remaining situated near our area from Sunday through about Tuesday. Upper-level forcing will be quite weak, but there is sufficient lift to support a few showers or storms mainly north of I-10 in the afternoons Monday and Tuesday. Sparser coverage is favored, so rain chances remain only around 20 percent.

The weakness in the ridge remains in place through the rest of the week, though southerly flow aloft should eventually overpower the remnant boundary in the area and reduce rain chances. Later in the week, the ridge is forecast to strengthen and take up would could be a relatively long-term residence in the Four Corners region. As hot high-elevation air focuses there, Thursday and Friday could bring gusty afternoons similar to what we saw last week. This flow would be more conducive to an increase in humidity by next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area airports through the overnight hours. Then, around 08Z Sunday, MVFR cigs are forecast to develop along the I-35 corridor sites and lasting to about 15Z Sunday. KDRT stays VFR for the entire forecast period. After 15Z Sunday, VFR cigs are forecast for both Austin and San Antonio area terminals while remaining through late Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 78 97 / 0 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 96 75 96 / 0 0 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 100 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 98 78 97 / 0 0 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 95 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.