textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady warming trend through Wednesday.

- Low to medium (20-40%) rain/storm chances return for the middle to end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Another warm day today as our warming trend continues. Additionally, low-level moisture continues to stream into the area helping to keep clouds around across the eastern half of the area These clouds should clear out this afternoon once mixing ensues. A dryline is currently located just to the west of Val Verde county and stretches north up into central Texas. This would be the focus for an isolated strong to severe storm to fire as the dryline retreats this late this evening. Hi-res models have latched onto this with several showing convection initiating across Val Verde county and moving northeastward through the Southern Edwards Plateau and perhaps reaching the western hill country. The most likely timeframe seems to occur just after midnight and continuing through the early pre dawn hours. Temperatures for tonight should be very mild as many remain in the upper 60s to low 70s as clouds increase once again and become quite widespread overnight, with record high minimum temps possible particularly across the San Antonio metro.

By Wednesday another warm day is in store with most topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s across the Rio Grande. Depending on how far east the isolated storms make it overnight could have an impact on temperatures as clouds may stick around longer across our far eastern areas. We could see a better opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as the dryline progresses all the way to the the I-35 Corridor. However, we should remain dry during the day as capping once again takes hold. By late Wednesday evening many areas could see somewhat higher probabilities for storms as a cold front comes in from the north behind the dryline. This should give better forcing for showers and storms to develop.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Behind this front temps will cool down with highs only reaching the low 70s with lows Thursday night in the upper 50s to low 60s. Details beyond this timeframe continue to remain uncertain. This is due largely in part to what happens with the upper level low and western trough located over the western U.S and southern California. Global models each have a different solution with the Euro continuing to show a cut off low opening up into a wave as it moves across our area. Though the latest run has the wave opening up later which tends to lean to the slower solution. The GFS on the other hand keeps the low in tact and spreads pieces of energy towards our area through the weekend before this low finally moves across TX. The GFS solution would favor more prolonged periods of rain whereas the Euro would be a more quick hitting rain event and thus leaving the weekend dry. For weekend purposes, if the slower solutions verify then we may need to introduce showers and thunderstorms over the weekend as we get closer. Continue to check back as details and rain chances hopefully become clearer in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

MVFR ceilings have been slow to scatter and lift this morning with VFR conditions now expected around 20-21Z at I-35 terminals. In the west at KDRT, wind will mostly be light and variable into Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, southerly wind persists into tomorrow at or below 12 knots. With some lighter wind tonight compared to last night, more widespread IFR conditions are expected with some models bringing LIFR ceilings over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and I-35 corridor. For this update, did not go that low yet and kept IFR ceilings in the forecast. Additionally, we will also need to watch for fog development in the Hill Country which could impact KSAT, though confidence is low. Low ceilings will linger through Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 87 61 71 / 10 30 20 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 85 62 72 / 10 20 20 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 87 61 73 / 0 20 20 40 Burnet Muni Airport 68 84 57 69 / 20 30 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 93 66 76 / 20 0 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 83 60 71 / 10 30 20 40 Hondo Muni Airport 73 88 65 74 / 10 10 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 86 62 72 / 0 20 20 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 86 64 74 / 0 30 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 87 64 74 / 0 10 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 75 87 66 74 / 0 10 20 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.