textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front arrives Saturday, bringing much cooler air and breezy conditions.

- Damp weather with scattered rains and a few thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.

- Cooler than normal conditions continue into early next week, with another round of rain possible Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

It's been a breezy Friday afternoon for South-Central Texas as widespread sustained 10-20 mph southerlies prevail in response to falling pressures over the Central Plains. These breezes should lighten up somewhat tonight as the lower levels stabilize, though occasional gusts up to 20 mph may persist at higher elevations in the Edwards Plateau.

A fairly strong cold front, especially for this deep into spring, is forecast to arrive from the north Saturday morning, with the HREF members in good agreement in an arrival just before dawn over the northern Hill Country. Cooler post-frontal air is expected to reach most of South-Central Texas by early afternoon Saturday. A few showers are possible along the leading edge of the front, but the combination of a strong morning cap and initially shallow low- level moisture depth shifts most of the frontal rains behind the front, mainly during the late-afternoon and evening hours. Rain is favored across most of the area, but the best chances are generally east and south of the Edwards Plateau. Most of the scattered to widespread rains will be light and stratiform, but a few embedded isolated high-base thunderstorms are expected. Hi- res models indicate that most of these will straddle the 700mb frontogenesis maximum, which traverses north to south across the region between about 5 PM and 2 AM. Elevated MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and modest lapse rates could support mainly smaller hail sizes from the stronger cells, but severe weather is unlikely. Lightning activity eventually eases up some late Saturday night as the mid-level instability wanes and drops farther south, but continued showers and occasional rumbles of thunder should still linger into Sunday morning. High-based, cool showers aren't especially efficient rainmakers, so rain totals should generally in the 1/4 to 1 inch range from light to moderate rains, for mostly the eastern 2/3rds of our CWA.

It will be a cloudy, cool, damp, and windy afternoon Saturday, feeling more like late-autumn as temperatures drop throughout the day into the low 60s and 50s. About half of HREF members show temperatures managing to slip below 50 in the Hill Country even before sunset. These temperatures are on par or below daily record cool high temperatures (below about the 3rd percentile for this time of year), but we likely won't be officially setting new records as the early morning temperatures are going to be warmer. While winds are not likely to be persistently strong enough to warrant a Wind Advisory, sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts into the 30-40 mph range are forecast throughout South-Central Texas for most of Saturday. Continued cloud cover Saturday night into Sunday morning slows the rate of cooling with temperatures settling into the mid 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Zonal flow aloft should keep Sunday dry for most, though there is a low to moderate chance (20 to 40 percent) for lingering post-frontal showers in the Rio Grande Plains. Drier air will allow for a decent warm up into the 60s and low 70s Sunday afternoon, but this will still put temperatures well below average. Sunday night through Monday, a mid-level disturbance over West Texas will drag moisture back into our area from the south, bringing another shot at scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout South-Central Texas and keeping daytime highs lower. Activity will tend to shift east with time, but lingering low to moderate chances for rains continue into Tuesday and potentially as late as Wednesday along and east of I-35. Recurring showers over the Coastal Plains are possible in this pattern as high theta-e air returns, with accompanying thunder.

A warming trend returns after midweek as southerly winds and ridging aloft reestablish, bringing warm near-average highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Rain chances stay low, but moist southerly flow and a persistent West Texas dry line keep rain chances non-zero.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Low TAF concerns are expected early other than some breezy conditions that will keep stratus CIGs VFR for most of the evening. By midnight, low clouds should be able to take shape as winds become less gusty. A cold front enters into the the northern CWA as most CIGs lower into IFR close to 12Z. The front will be swift, and by 15Z most if not all TAF sites will see north breeze. Consensus of model reflectivity data would suggest a persistent fetch of light showers to accompany winds gusting up to 30 Knots during the midday hours. During this period, the primary CIG is expected to be MVFR. After dusk, the CIGs are expected to lift to VFR as the frontal inversion deepens further.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 64 69 52 75 / 10 60 60 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 69 53 74 / 0 50 60 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 72 53 74 / 0 40 70 10 Burnet Muni Airport 58 62 49 71 / 20 60 50 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 69 56 68 / 10 50 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 65 50 73 / 10 60 60 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 72 53 70 / 0 40 60 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 72 53 74 / 0 50 70 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 77 54 74 / 0 50 70 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 72 54 73 / 0 40 70 10 Stinson Muni Airport 67 76 56 72 / 0 40 70 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.