textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The weather doesn't look to change much for South-Central Texas during the last few days of June as ridging retains a firm hold on local conditions. GOES LAP and NUCAPS soundings across the area show the ridge has kept the air dry across much of the troposphere. Southerly winds today will help to siphon off some moisture our way from a disorganized pouch of moisture currently along the shores of the Bay of Campeche, but we don't expect this to have much of a considerable effect on Sunday's weather outside from marginally more morning/afternoon cloud cover and slightly higher heat indices over the Coastal Plains from the added humidity. Peak heat indices today will be elevated again in the 100-107F range. None of the hi-res models depict rain anywhere in the region Sunday or Monday, but with the slightly higher near-surface moisture moving through it would not be a total stretch to see a brief light shower over the Coastal Plains this morning. Otherwise, the summer sun will continue to prevail along with breezy afternoon gusts up to the 20-30 mph range.

Monday should be similar, though as the residual low-level moisture moves out of our area, that should allow slightly more favorable daytime mixing to shave a few degrees off the afternoon heat indices. Nonetheless, it will still be seasonably hot with peak values in the 98-105F range along with continued southerly breezes. The main wrinkle in the weather Monday is that a decent plume of dusty Saharan air is expected to spread across Texas throughout the day Monday. Output from the NASA/GMAO GEOS-FP model show total aerosol optical thicknesses increasing to about 0.25-0.50, which should be enough to produce milky blue-white afternoon skies and add a noticeable orange tinge to the day's sunrise and sunset, depending on timing.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The weather doesn't look to change much for South-Central Texas during the last few days of June as ridging retains a firm hold on local conditions. GOES LAP and NUCAPS soundings across the area show the ridge has kept the air dry across much of the troposphere. Southerly winds today will help to siphon off some moisture our way from a disorganized pouch of moisture currently along the shores of the Bay of Campeche, but we don't expect this to have much of a considerable effect on Sunday's weather outside from marginally more morning/afternoon cloud cover and slightly higher heat indices over the Coastal Plains from the added humidity. Peak heat indices today will be elevated again in the 100-107F range. None of the hi-res models depict rain anywhere in the region Sunday or Monday, but with the slightly higher near-surface moisture moving through it would not be a total stretch to see a brief light shower over the Coastal Plains this morning. Otherwise, the summer sun will continue to prevail along with breezy afternoon gusts up to the 20-30 mph range.

Monday should be similar, though as the residual low-level moisture moves out of our area, that should allow slightly more favorable daytime mixing to shave a few degrees off the afternoon heat indices. Nonetheless, it will still be seasonably hot with peak values in the 98-105F range along with continued southerly breezes. The main wrinkle in the weather Monday is that a decent plume of dusty Saharan air is expected to spread across Texas throughout the day Monday. Output from the NASA/GMAO GEOS-FP model show total aerosol optical thicknesses increasing to about 0.25-0.50, which should be enough to produce milky blue-white afternoon skies and add a noticeable orange tinge to the day's sunrise and sunset, depending on timing.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026 Steady hot and sunny weather is likely to continue as we close out June and kick off July. Slow-moving and amplified troughing over the western CONUS will allow the core of subtropical ridging currently straddling our latitude to flex northward towards the Ohio River valley and Mid-Atlantic states. This should relax the pressure gradient over our area with the daytime breezes likely to diminish over the course of the week. This changeup only minimally impacts temperatures, so daytime highs throughout week ahead are still forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100 with overnight lows bottoming out in the mid to upper 70s. Daily peak heat indices are forecast to continue hovering around the 98-105F range for most of the area.

The first few days of July continue to look dry and we don't have rain in the 7-day forecast for most of South-Central Texas. However, the aforementioned changes to the broader synoptic weather pattern will at least coax open a few doors for some showers to reach the area should conducive conditions arise. As high pressure lifts north, increased easterly flow around its periphery over the northern Gulf could bring some rains to the Coastal Plains late week. To the west, the amplified trough should agitate the dry line enough to spark a afternoon/evening storms during the week, though it is highly unlikely that any of this activity will reach the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. For now, the general expectation is that it'll be seasonably hot and dry for Independence Day festivities (with less than 10 percent of models in the latest model blend showing any rain).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Nighttime microphysics imagery depicts low stratus covering areas around all 4 TAF sites so will a few hours of prevailing for each with the longest time window at SAT. Another robust daytime and early evening period of wind gusts are expected and the overnight winds should be less gusty but still running steady at between 09 and 14 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 97 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 79 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 75 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 78 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 79 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 77 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 95 78 95 76 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.