textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 314 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Above normal temperatures will persist through Thursday.

- Heavy rainfall possible across portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau, mainly late Thursday into early Friday.

- Windy and cooler behind a strong cold front on Friday, followed by a dry and cool weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Gusty south to southeast winds continue early this afternoon along with temperatures in the lower 80s to lower 90s. With continued daytime heating, highs are still on track to peak in the lower to upper 90s today. In addition, we could see some isolated showers and storms develop from the coastal plains northward into the U.S. Highway 77 corridor. This region is in closer proximity to a moisture axis as noted by recent GOES blended TPW product. Southerly flow will persist overnight resulting in another round of widespread low cloud development late tonight into Wednesday morning. The above mentioned moisture axis will slide westward on Wednesday, aiding in the development of some afternoon showers and storms for areas generally along and east of the I-35 corridor. While any convection along and east of I-35 is expected to weaken with the loss of daytime heating, some late evening and overnight convection may develop across the western half of Val Verde County as moisture from 'Simon' streams northward into the region. WPC maintains a level 1 of 4 risk for locally heavy rain across far western portions of Val Verde County.

Temperatures will continue to remain above normal through Wednesday with highs in the 90s and lows mostly in the 70s. Heat index values will peak in the 103-105 degree range along I-35, with near 107 degrees in the coastal plains. Some record high minimum temperatures may also be in jeopardy.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

High temperatures on Thursday will continue to remain above normal. However, with the low-level thermal ridge weakening slightly, highs will ease back slightly into the mid 80s to mid 90s.

Enhanced moisture and lift continue to be focused over our western areas on Thursday into Friday and the WPC does show a level 2 of 4 risk for heavy rain across most of Val Verde County, with a level 1 of 4 risk into the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. We will need to monitor the Thursday evening into early Friday morning period for the above mentioned areas as a strong cold front encounters the moist axis over the Big Bend/northern Mexico.

The cold front continues to move southward rather quickly late Thursday into early Friday morning. While the current NBM only extends rain chances eastward into the Hill Country, could see a scenario where a thin line of convection develops along the low- level forcing along/just behind the front. We will need to monitor and may need to add some low rain chances farther east into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains as the front moves through Friday morning.

It will be quite windy behind the front on Friday and a few spots over the higher terrain of the Hill Country may briefly approach the low end wind advisory threshold of sustained winds at or above 26 mph. Much cooler temperatures and dry weather are in store for the upcoming weekend. Weekend highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 80s for most of the region along with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Some low rain chances may enter the forecast late Monday into Tuesday as southerly flow in the lower levels begins to reestablish, with southwest flow aloft. Any rain chances will remain low at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

MVFR ceilings will lift and scatter this afternoon with VFR conditions persisting into late this evening. Dry weather is forecast at TAF sites today with any isolated showers or thunderstorms well east into the coastal plains. MVFR ceilings redevelop after midnight expanding over all of South Central Texas by sunrise. Similar to today, ceilings stick around into the mid to late morning with improvement to VFR in the afternoon. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop further inland Wednesday afternoon with KAUS having the higher chances for precipitation; therefore, have included a PROB30 group with this update. Moderate south to southeast wind continues over the region today and Wednesday, easing slightly overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 94 71 91 / 10 50 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 94 69 91 / 10 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 92 69 90 / 10 40 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 91 70 87 / 0 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 96 75 91 / 0 10 40 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 93 70 90 / 10 30 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 95 71 91 / 10 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 93 69 91 / 10 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 94 69 93 / 10 50 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 92 71 90 / 10 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 94 72 92 / 10 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.