textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for Val Verde County Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

- Cooler air arrives behind a cold front early Friday with below normal temperatures to continue at least into early Monday.

- Increasing high and low temperatures are forecast from Monday through the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The potential for flooding has increased over Val Verde County as a very moist airmass will be in place over West Texas and approaches our far western counties bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While rain chances begin over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight and continue through Friday morning, the main focus for heavy rain will be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning over Val Verde County. A Flood Watch has been issued for this timeframe for Val Verde County. Heavy rain will end throughout Friday morning as a cold front brings cooler and drier air to the area.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A strong trough has pivoted over the Four Corners region today resulting in the upper ridge previously over the Texas Gulf to elongate and center itself over the southeastern US this afternoon. This has resulted in a push of low level moisture from the Gulf to move inland bringing low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances from the coastal plains towards the I-35 corridor through this evening. Any activity will likely be isolated or widely scattered so the majority will just see another hot, humid and breezy day. Drier air then moves over the eastern half of the forecast area tonight allowing for slightly "cooler" lows east but "warmer" conditions west. Additionally in the west, southwesterly flow aloft becomes more established today leading to increasing rain chances across the southern Edwards Plateau through the short term period.

Ongoing rain in West Texas will move slightly further east tonight shifting a deep plume of moisture associated with Hurricane Simon in the Pacific towards the area. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms could occur through Friday morning in Val Verde County with some activity possibly bleeding into Edwards or Kinney Counties tonight. The majority of guidance keeps this band of heavy rain primarily in West Texas, but a few models do have some isolated totals around 4 inches into eastern Val Verde County. WPC highlights a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall tonight with a level 2 of 4 risk Thursday into Friday over Val Verde.

A strong cold front gets sent our way late Thursday night or early Friday morning, advancing across the entire area by Friday morning. A line of showers may develop along the quickly moving front bringing low rain chances to much of the area through Friday morning, but pre-exisiting drier air over the area will greatly limit the amount of measurable precipitation received to a few hundredths to possibly a few tenths of an inch. Drier air behind the front will gradually end any ongoing precipitation in the western portion of the area once it moves through as well. More on our post- frontal conditions in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The front will either be entirely through or through the vast majority of South Central Texas by sunrise Friday morning as it tracks south across the state. Northerly wind quickly increases behind this feature while temperatures rapidly cool.

There remains some variance in models on exactly how cool air behind the front is but hi-res guidance seems to favor a cooler solution than the global ensembles; therefore, have trended slightly cooler than the NBM with this update. Highs somewhere in the 60s north to possibly low 80s south are forecast Friday with windy conditions through the day. Gusty wind will gusts as high as 40 mph are expected Friday into Saturday morning, with a gradual weakening of winds Saturday into Sunday. A Wind Advisory during this time may be issued. Cooler and more Fall-like weather stick around through Monday morning with highs in the 60s or 70s and lows in the 40s or 50s.

Ensemble guidance brings back warmer highs and lows for the start of the week into the mid-week period with some low PoPs over the area. Ridging is favored to build over the area during this time ahead of another trough in the west.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

There is plenty of low level moisture in place across South Central Texas including the local area terminals as of 17Z. Scattered to broken 2000 to 4000 feet ceilings are present, however, forecast to lift at least to 4kft in the next hour over most places. Also, area radars are showing light to moderate showers and even pockets of heavy rain east of Highway 77 (east of I-35 corridor). Latest IR satellite images are showing clouds cooling up to -45C, which indicates the potential for those showers to grow into thunderstorms. With that said, the setup expected for the next several hours is for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop while near the Austin metro area. I went ahead and kept the the PROB30 for KAUS from 22Z to 24Z due to the probability of -tsra and MVFR cigs. Otherwise, this activity should stay to the east of the San Antonio airports through this forecast cycle. Continued breezy and gusty for the rest of this afternoon and early evening before the wind comes down to 10 knots or less late tonight into the overnight hours. There is a slight chance for isolated showers and storms overnight for Del Rio area, however, confidence is too low to mention this early and decided to wait for future aviation forecast packages. MVFR cigs do return across all area airports overnight. There are several models solutions bringing MVFR cigs as early as 03Z and as late as 13Z for the I-35 corridor sites. We will monitor this closely and make adjustments accordingly. VFR candidness come back by midday Thursday for the I-35 terminals but lower cigs could remains over KDRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 94 70 90 64 / 40 10 0 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 68 90 64 / 40 10 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 69 89 65 / 30 10 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 91 68 87 60 / 20 10 0 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 74 89 62 / 10 30 30 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 69 90 61 / 40 10 0 40 Hondo Muni Airport 95 70 91 64 / 10 10 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 68 90 64 / 40 10 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 68 91 66 / 40 0 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 71 89 66 / 30 10 10 20 Stinson Muni Airport 94 72 91 68 / 20 10 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183.