textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for a few showers and storms through Monday.

- Active weather pattern from mid-week through the upcoming Memorial Holiday weekend. Heavy rain at times could lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Cloud cover from this morning remains fairly thick across the region as we head into the early afternoon hours. We are seeing some partial clearing from time to time, especially out west over the Rio Grande plains. A few radar returns are noted and given the partial clearing, daytime heating as well as some support from the hi-res models, we have kept a low chance for showers and thunderstorms through the early evening hours. Widespread low clouds and south winds will keep a warm and humid air mass intact tonight into Monday as an active southwest flow aloft persists. Rain chances from the NBM appear too low today into Monday and we have opted to add a low chance (20-30%) to most of the region. The afternoon and evening hours appear most favorable for some isolated shower and thunderstorm development. Daytime highs will be at or a few degrees above normal, with overnight lows running some 10 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

The pattern is expected to become a little more active as we head into the middle of the week. A weak cold front approaches from the north late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning as a fairly stout shortwave trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft moves across the region. Rain chances will go up considerably in this pattern and given the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, efficient rain producing convection is expected. WPC maintains a level 2 of 4 risk for heavy rainfall generally north of Highway 90, with a level 1 of 4 risk elsewhere. The above mentioned boundary weakens considerably as we head into Thursday and Friday, but the medium range guidance suggests another round of shortwave energy moving in from the southwest. Rain chances remain high given the pattern, with convection likely favored during the peak heating hours both days.

Southwest flow aloft persists into the upcoming Memorial Day weekend and rain chances will remain in the forecast. It will be tough to determine which days remain favored for rainfall as it will be difficult to time the periods of favorable lift moving into the region. Persistent clouds and rain chances will likely keep temperatures below normal through the mentioned period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

MVFR ceilings have developed over the I-35 Corridor and should reach DRT within a few hours. These ceilings will last until around noon when all airports will rebound to VFR. Winds will continue to be strong and gusty tonight and through the day. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight. There is a less than 20% chance for showers or thunderstorms this afternoon in the Austin and San Antonio areas. Any convection could briefly reduce the ceiling or visibility to MVFR.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 50 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 79 91 73 / 10 20 50 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 88 75 87 70 / 10 10 50 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 98 78 95 72 / 10 10 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 77 90 71 / 10 20 60 70 Hondo Muni Airport 92 78 91 72 / 10 20 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 78 92 73 / 10 20 40 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 79 91 73 / 10 20 40 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 78 91 73 / 10 20 40 60 Stinson Muni Airport 93 79 92 73 / 10 20 30 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.