textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Breezy conditions tonight and Friday morning as a dry cold front moves across the area.

- Wet and cool this weekend with beneficial rains.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Another warm and quiescent day is in progress as temperatures make their way into the 80s across most of South-Central Texas. Later this evening, a weak and dry cold front will move across the region from the northwest. VWPs from West Texas radars and model cross sections do not suggest this to be an especially deep front, but there should be enough momentum tucked into the lowest 1 kft to support a breezy night for the area, especially for Hill Country hilltops and areas immediately downwind of the Balcones Escarpment. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph are forecast before they begin to taper off in the late morning and afternoon on Friday. Lows tonight range from slightly milder 60s ahead of the front in the Coastal Plains to 50s along the I-35 corridor and some upper 40s over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country behind the front.

The post-frontal air should make for a cooler Friday by about 5 to 15 degrees, most noticeably in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau where the combination of residual clouds at the top of the boundary layer and modest cold air advection will keep highs in the 60s. Elsewhere, highs Friday will be in the 70s under sunny skies.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1229 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The potential for wet weather is coming into better focus this weekend. A cool continental airmass in the lower levels should continue spreading across Texas on Saturday. A shortwave is forecast to amplify and sag southward as a nearly cut-off low as it approaches Texas, redirecting moisture over our area as mid-level winds shift southwesterly. This will also result in the development of a lee-side trough on the eastern flanks of the Mexican plateau, which in turn increases the supply of low-level moisture from the Gulf. The combination of these two moisture streams ascending atop cool air supports a broad rain event beginning Saturday morning or afternoon along the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau, then spreading across much of South-Central Texas Saturday night through Sunday before rain chances lessen Monday with the lee trough dropping southeast and transitioning into a coastal low.

The highest rain chances and rainfall totals are likely to be where the low-level and mid-level moisture streams overlap the most. This includes areas along the Rio Grande eastward towards the San Antonio area, where rain chances rise Saturday, especially in the evening, and then climb to about 90 percent on Sunday. Peak rainfall chances tail off only slightly to about 50-70 percent elsewhere, though models do suggest that amounts are likely to decrease towards the northeast farther away from the low level supply of moisture. Models have trended upwards in the amount of rainfall from this event, with the GEFS and ENS starting to show a broader area of 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals in their ensemble means. Some of the deterministic and ML-based guidance is also beginning to depict a few swaths of 2 to 4 inches. The isentropic and cool nature of the rains will be a limiting factor for rain rates, so this event looks more like a steady soaking and beneficial rain. The rain and clouds will keep conditions over the weekend cool with temperatures struggling to get above the 60s Sunday. If the damp weather overperforms, a few spots may struggle to warm above the 50s outright.

Conditions should dry and gradually warm once the moisture is carried farther east. Rain chances linger over the Coastal Plains Monday in closer proximity to the coastal low, but by Tuesday models are in better agreement that the trough responsible for marshaling the weekend's moisture will be out of the area with drier air following behind. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to return to the 70s by midweek next week with overnight lows mostly in the 50s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR flight conditions primarily to prevail through the period. The region will see a dry cold front advance across the region during late tonight. The front advances across KDRT before midnight and across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) sometime near midnight. There would likely be a broken band of mid to high level clouds associated with the front but no rain. The winds will become north-northwesterly immediately behind the front and the speeds pick up to moderate levels overnight into the morning hours with higher gusts, which could reach 20 to 25 kts. Slightly cooler post-frontal morning air may allow for FEW to SCT low cloud cover from the morning into early afternoon, with the primarily concentration from the Hill Country into the KAUS area. Clouds erode later into and through the afternoon with the north- northwesterly winds gradually subsiding as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 58 75 57 70 / 0 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 56 76 55 72 / 0 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 76 56 71 / 0 0 0 40 Burnet Muni Airport 53 70 54 65 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 73 58 65 / 0 0 10 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 73 54 69 / 0 0 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 57 77 57 70 / 10 0 0 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 76 55 72 / 0 0 0 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 79 57 76 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 59 77 58 70 / 0 0 0 40 Stinson Muni Airport 61 78 59 71 / 0 0 0 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.