textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions continues until 7 PM today for the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains. A Fire Danger Statement for elevated fire weather remains in effect until 7 PM for the remainder of south central Texas.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the entire forecast period.

- Low chances (20 to 30%) for showers and a few storms for most areas Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1238 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Morning low temperatures were in the 50s to near 65 degrees for most of south central Texas. These readings are some 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Daytime highs today are still set to soar to well above normal with mid 80s to upper 90s in the forecast. The 12Z DRT sounding showed some impressive warmth in the lower levels of the atmosphere with an 850mb temperature of 23C. Given this pronounced low-level thermal ridge, we expect to see the warmest readings along the Rio Grande, with mid to upper 90s. We would not be too surprised to see temperatures at 100 degrees over Dimmit or southern Maverick Counties. We could be very close to record highs at Del Rio, San Antonio and Austin Bergstrom. Given the hot and dry conditions over the area today, fire weather concerns remain heightened and the current Red Flag Warning and Rangeland Fire Danger Statement remain in effect until 7 PM. For tonight, northerly winds behind a weak front spread over the region. With dry air and mostly clear skies, overnight lows should drop into the 50s for most areas. Temperatures continue to remain above normal on Friday as winds shift to a more east to southeasterly direction.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1238 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Gusty south winds return to all areas for the upcoming weekend, with highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees. The southerly winds and late night through morning cloud cover will also keep overnight lows above normal, with mid 50s to lower 60s expected. For early next week, we are still seeing some disagreement in the operational models regarding a possible cold front moving in on Monday. The operational GFS remains consistent in showing the front pushing through all of south central Texas, while the operational ECMWF and Canadian keep the boundary to our north. While there is some weak support in the model ensembles, prefer to keep the forecast on the warm side for Monday. However, we will show some slightly cooler temperatures over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as the boundary may slip into these areas. In addition, an increase in cloud cover may keep highs a little lower in our northern areas. Elsewhere, we will not reflect much of a temperature change at this time.

A gradual pattern change is expected to take place as we head into the early and middle portion of next week. The persistent high pressure in the mid and upper levels over the desert southwest and northern Mexico will erode as an upper low gradually develops. Am not overly confident in precipitation chances with this system just yet as the main upper low still remain well to our west. For now, prefer to keep rain chances limited to the 20-30% range on Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A front has made its way across the area this afternoon, with it we have seen gusty northerly winds. We expect these winds to die down after sunset. Eventually these winds will switch back to the east southeast by Friday afternoon. Models continue to hint at some cloud cover coming up from the coastal plains and perhaps some fog developing by early morning. Have kept mention of fog out of this forecast package for now but did drop CIGs to MVFR for KSAT and KSSF for tomorrow morning with VFR CIGS resuming in the afternoon. For KDRT expect VFR CIGs throughout the TAF period with northerly winds turning light and VRB overnight into tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions continues until 7 PM today for the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and Rio Grande plains. In addition, a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement continue for the remainder of south central Texas until 7 PM for elevated fire weather concerns. Winds should tend to ease around sunset, with lower wind speeds remaining in the forecast for Friday. Gusty south winds along with an uptick in low-level moisture return to all areas for the upcoming weekend.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1238 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

February 26 Location Record Maximum (Year)

Austin Camp Mabry 93 (1954) Austin Bergstrom 88 (2009) Del Rio 96 (2024) San Antonio 91 (1954)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 58 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 56 85 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 54 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 87 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 55 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 58 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 61 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ171-172- 183>190-202>204-217>219-228.