textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Pleasant weather early to midweek with low humidity, including warm afternoons and cooler mornings.

- Low end rain chances (~15-25%) return late week, mainly peak late Thursday through Friday for the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Overnight tonight we should see most areas drop into the upper 50s in the Hill Country to the mid to upper 60s to the south. Drier air will continue across the area working its way in from the north as high pressure remains across the Great Lakes and upper Midwest. By this morning we should see another very pleasant and sunny day with highs just a few degrees warmer then yesterdays with most in the mid to upper 80s and perhaps even a few 90s out west along the Rio Grande. Lows tonight will remain seasonable with mid to upper 60s common. Wednesday we should see another pleasant day with highs very similar to today with many reaching the mid to upper 80s with low 90s once again possible in our western areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Our pleasant weather continues as northerly flow is seen in the lower and middle parts of the atmosphere leading to a continued drying out across our area. Daily highs should stay in the mid to upper 80s for afternoon highs with the morning lows dipping down into the low 60s across the Hill Country and into the mid to upper 60s elsewhere. This begins to change by late week as a possible disturbance tries establishing itself later this week across West Texas on Thursday, and then over the Edwards Plateau/Concho Valley on Friday as it begins to transition into a closed low. This may be enough to bring some low end rain chances (~15-25%) across the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas.

Additionally, NHC is currently monitoring a potential tropical disturbance across the Bay of Campeche and has now increased its chances up to a high (80%) chance of development into a Tropical Depression or Storm over the next 7 days. Current steering flows suggest that this disturbance moves north northeastward across the Gulf. Though models strongly diverge on timing and track. If this system takes a more north northeasterly track then this would allow our area to remain on the drier side as the system will have taken most of the moisture and rain chances with it. Therefore only temperatures would really be the major influence from this system. For now it is still a bit too far out to put any confidence in a particular model solution. However, we will continue to keep an eye on this disturbance and watch to see how this unfolds and what impacts if any this would bring to our local area.

Beyond Friday we should see lower rain chances as the trough and subsequent tropical system push well far away from our area by this weekend. This would open up the upper level flow to become more southwesterly which would support warner temps and higher dewpoints area wide.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period with drier air over the region keeping mostly clear skies across South Central Texas. North to northeast wind persists under 10 knots across much of the area. Along the Rio Grande and at KDRT, wind may largely be light and variable through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 65 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 65 87 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 83 61 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 62 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 68 88 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 68 89 70 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.