textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Low (15-25%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Labor Day

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains through much of next week

- Above average temperatures through the week

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a large amplitude ridge stretching from West Texas to MN. A weak disturbance over the northwestern Gulf is generating showers and thunderstorms from the TX coast to the Hill Country. Storm coverage over our CWA is isolated at this time. The mid to upper ridge will continue its slow shift to the east through the short term period, but still dominate over Texas. By the start of this period, this evening, any afternoon convection should be coming to an end leaving the area dry overnight. The weak disturbance from the Gulf will be dissipating over the state Monday, but will still generate isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Hill Country. Temperatures will be above normal. Highs Monday will be about five degrees warmer than today.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The strong upper ridge will break down over the northern part of the country, but continue to control the weather over the southern states. Southeasterly low level flow will keep hot, moist air over South-Central Texas. There may be some seabreeze convection each day Tuesday through Thursday over the Coastal Plains, but chances are low. Most of the area will be hot and dry. Temperatures will be steady and above normal through the week. The NBM is showing higher humidity into the week, but it has tended to run moist in the medium term. The forecast higher dewpoints have not developed. However, if the higher dewpoints verify we will reach Heat Advisory criteria over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor by mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR skies are forecast through the period in part due to a weak disturbance passing east to west over the area and bringing a round of mid to higher level clouds. A wave of deep convection is aligned E-W roughly along HWY 290 and will impact the AUS area through around 22Z and should impact the SAT/SSF locations from 20Z to 00Z Monday. Not many model solutions keep this instability intact by the time the feature reaches the Rio Grande, so will keep DRT with no convection mentioned. Light winds will follow the usual diurnal fluctuations, but will generally show a more easterly direction due to the disturbance passing overhead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 99 78 100 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 99 77 100 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 98 76 99 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 77 99 / 0 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 97 77 99 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 97 74 98 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 99 76 100 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 98 77 99 / 10 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 100 78 100 / 10 10 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.