textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Hot and mostly rain free conditions continue through the week.

- Driest air over the region today and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Much drier has spread across much of South Central Texas in the wake of yesterday's weak front. GOES Airmass RGB enhancement coupled with modeled layer theta-e analyses show this dry air streaming down from Canada and wrapping around a broader trough over the Ohio River Valley. This is allowing moisture to quickly mix out and temperatures to heat efficiently, leading to a dry heat today. In fact, the dew point as of 1 PM CDT today had already dropped into the 50s in the Austin area for the first time since mid/late May. Dew points will start to increase some tonight as winds gradually transition back into southerlies, but the drier air and relatively clear skies for most of the night should allow lows to dip a little further into the low 70s and upper 60s north of I-10, with mid 70s elsewhere. Some places in the Hill Country could be quite cool by early August standards, with temperatures in the mid 60s possible just before dawn.

Monday is expected to bring a stronger dry heat as dew points remain relatively low (around the 10th percentile), concurrent with southerly flow. Statistical guidance remains quite bullish regarding highs Monday. I am somewhat skeptical that we'll see the widespread 104+ temperatures that guidance has been advertising, given the lack of a westerly component to the flow, but the dry air will nonetheless heat up easily. Current forecast highs Monday range from the upper 90s to around 103 for most of the area, a notch above the national blend. Triple-degree highs are expected to be widespread. It will be quite toasty Monday, but at the very least the modest dew points should keep the heat from feeling much hotter.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

After making a brief jaunt towards Arizona and southern California, subtropical ridging will bounce back and extend east over our area this week, encouraging steady southerly flow and the return of higher dew points. Afternoon highs may moderate some into the mid and upper 90s, but the added moisture is expected to boost heat indices back above 105 for the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and Rio Grande Plains mid to late week. This is climatologically the hottest time of the year, and the heat can become hazardous if adequate steps are not taken to stay cool and hydrated. Overnight lows will stick around the mid to upper 70s.

The southerly flow should restore the typical cycle of morning cloudiness breaking into mostly sunny afternoons, but the overhead ridge should keep the weather rain free for most of South Central Texas through the week. Later in the week, a broad trough swings across the northern tier of CONUS, which results in a slight weakness in the ridging. While there are no clear cut disturbances in the forecast at this time, this slight weakness could provide a slight increase in isolated seabreeze-related shower activity mainly Thursday onwards. These low rain chances (around 20 percent at best) mainly involve the Coastal Plains, but if the weakness opens up further, a few showers could push farther inland.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Dry air is working into the area TAF VCNTYs with dew points dropping into the low to mid 60s by midday. A few fair weather cumulus and mid level clouds will remain in the area for the early afternoon, but a shift to SKC should happen for all areas by late in the day. Subtle changes in wind direction based on MOS guidance and the area VAD Wind Profiles and current obs are the only reasons not to have a one line TAF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 102 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 102 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 100 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 103 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 101 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 102 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 101 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.