textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A mid/upper level trough extends from the Great Basin to near Baja California with a dryline over far west Texas to the Big Bend area. The northern part of the trough moves out over the Central Plains today allowing the dryline to mix east to our Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Forcing ahead of the dryline of a moist airmass underneath a warm layer/capping keeps it showers as shown by most models. However, there may be enough sunshine/heating to break the capping to sample steep mid level lapse rates, moderate MLCAPE, and moderate bulk shears to produce isolated, strong to severe storms as shown by only a few models. If there are storms, the favored areas are the eastern Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor north of San Antonio. As the trough moves farther east on Saturday, it sends a cold front into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late morning into early afternoon, then remainder of our area late afternoon into early evening. The front provides forcing for showers and thunderstorms. The above mentioned convective parameters remain on Saturday with forcing allowing for more widespread strong to severe storms along with heavy rains. Large hail, damaging winds, and minor flooding will be the main threats. High temperatures continue well above average all areas today and southern areas on Saturday with the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Central Texas cooling off due to frontal passage being earlier in the day.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A mid/upper level trough extends from the Great Basin to near Baja California with a dryline over far west Texas to the Big Bend area. The northern part of the trough moves out over the Central Plains today allowing the dryline to mix east to our Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau this afternoon. Forcing ahead of the dryline of a moist airmass underneath a warm layer/capping keeps it showers as shown by most models. However, there may be enough sunshine/heating to break the capping to sample steep mid level lapse rates, moderate MLCAPE, and moderate bulk shears to produce isolated, strong to severe storms as shown by only a few models. If there are storms, the favored areas are the eastern Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor north of San Antonio. As the trough moves farther east on Saturday, it sends a cold front into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late morning into early afternoon, then remainder of our area late afternoon into early evening. The front provides forcing for showers and thunderstorms. The above mentioned convective parameters remain on Saturday with forcing allowing for more widespread strong to severe storms along with heavy rains. Large hail, damaging winds, and minor flooding will be the main threats. High temperatures continue well above average all areas today and southern areas on Saturday with the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Central Texas cooling off due to frontal passage being earlier in the day.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The northern part of the trough continues to the east with little additional impact. Meanwhile, the southern part settles in as a closed low near or off the coast of Baja California. With a lack of support aloft, the front stalls to our south on Sunday, then moves back to the north of our area on Monday as surface pressures fall in the Plains. The combination of the front, mid level impulses lifting out of the Baja low, and an unseasonably moist airmass keep high chances of rounds of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night through Tuesday. Then, the low opens as a trough and moves over our area on Wednesday or Thursday to produce one last round of showers and thunderstorms with this rain event. Recent model and ensemble trends have again disagreed on the timing of this passage. However, there is a slowing trend and rain chances have been extended into Thursday. Moderate instability and shear may allow for a few strong to severe storms, though heavy rains are the main impacts. Flooding may become more likely should heavy rains fall over the same areas. The latest guidance shows a 60 to 90% chance of at least 1 inch of rain for most of our area with a 40 to 60% chance of at least 2 inches for areas north of I-10. There is a potential for multiple inches across some areas. As for temperatures, Sunday will be much cooler with highs well below average due to cold advection underneath thick cloud layers with rainfall. Southerly winds return on Monday with temperatures warming back to above average through Tuesday in spite of the clouds and rain. Above average temperatures continue on Wednesday due to downsloping northwesterly winds. In wake of a frontal passage Wednesday night, temperatures cool to slightly below average on Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Southerly wind from 10-15 knots will decrease in the west along the Rio Grande later this morning while gusty wind increases over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal plains this afternoon. MVFR ceilings continue through the morning before VFR conditions return to sites this afternoon. -SHRA may be seen at I-35 terminals this afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to redevelop tonight into Saturday morning with higher confidence for rain on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 84 69 81 57 / 40 30 90 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 68 82 56 / 40 30 90 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 67 82 58 / 30 20 80 80 Burnet Muni Airport 79 66 73 54 / 50 40 90 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 65 80 57 / 10 20 70 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 67 79 55 / 50 40 90 70 Hondo Muni Airport 85 66 82 55 / 30 10 80 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 67 83 57 / 40 20 90 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 70 85 60 / 30 20 80 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 69 82 59 / 30 10 90 90 Stinson Muni Airport 85 70 85 60 / 30 10 80 90

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.