textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Low to medium chances for rain and isolated storms mid-week into next weekend as we begin a more active weather pattern.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Not much to speak about in the short term as it's basically a rinse and repeat kind of pattern with cloudy skies in the evenings and sunny skies with breezy southerly winds during the day. Highs will be well above normal for our area with mid to upper 80s likely both days and lows only dropping in the low 60s. Additionally, there will be plentiful moisture building into the area as we remain in a southerly low level flow off the Gulf.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The long term is where our quiet and predictable weather pattern really changes. The upper level ridge that has kept us very warm the past several days eventually moves off to the east allowing a shortwave trough to pass across the central plains states which also brings a trailing cold front just north of our area. This cold front eventually washes out but could remain the focus of potential showers and thunderstorms across our area. However, as is the case with these systems the better forcing looks to stay to the north of us. Regardless, the building instability and the moist airmass in place should be enough to overcome this and we could see showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage by Wednesday. We expect to see more chances for showers and storms towards the end of the forecast period as a trough out to our west continues to eject pieces of energy our way thus helping to spark off better chances for storms. Eventually, a cold front approaches our area and this could be the better forcing needed to spark off more widespread showers and storms across south central Texas over the weekend.

Since we remain in a very moist environment with modest instability any storms that do form could produce heavier rainfall. The caveat right now is there is very high uncertainty how this all unfolds as models are still all over the place and will likely remain that way until we get closer. Temperatures during this period will also remain well above average as southerly low level flow continues until the cold front moves across our area sometime next weekend. Models are hinting at an even more active period just beyond this forecast period as the upper level flow becomes more wavy in nature helping to bring more disturbances across our area. However, at this point it's still very far out but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

MVFR ceilings have spread to Austin and San Antonio and will get to DRT within the next hour. All terminals will rebound to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Low clouds will redevelop late this evening. Winds in Austin and San Antonio will be from the southeast through the period. At DRT they will be from the east- southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 82 63 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 61 88 65 / 10 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 61 86 65 / 10 0 0 20 Burnet Muni Airport 80 61 84 65 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 62 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 62 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 85 59 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 61 88 65 / 10 10 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 62 87 67 / 0 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 63 87 66 / 0 10 0 20 Stinson Muni Airport 85 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.