textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Rain chances for the Rio Grande plains begin late tonight, then spread east across the remainder of the region Saturday.

- Highest rain chances on Sunday with cooler air beginning to move in from the north.

- Much cooler and dry for early next week, with rain chances returning late Wednesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

The latest visible and infrared satellite imagery shows some high clouds beginning to move in from the west. These clouds are developing in advance of a broad upper level trough axis stretching from the Pacific northwest southward into northern Mexico. The clouds likely won't have any impact on high temperatures today, with most locations peaking in the lower 70s to near 80 degrees.

Rain chances will return to the Rio Grande plains late tonight into Saturday morning as lift in advance of the trough axis spreads into the region. Rain chances will slowly expand eastward with time during the daytime hours on Saturday. As of now, we don't expect to see much more than isolated to scattered coverage of showers, so will keep rain chances in the 20-40% range. Highs on Saturday should mostly range from the mid 60s to mid 70s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. It will be breezy, with south to southeast winds increasing in advance of the upper level trough axis mentioned above. Rain chances will steadily increase Saturday night as the strengthening low-level jet aids moisture transport northward.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 142 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

By Sunday morning, we should see widespread showers ongoing across most of the region, with areas right along the Rio Grande missing out on the higher rain chances. Rainfall amounts should pick up in the afternoon and evening as strong forcing for ascent moves into south central Texas. We also expect to see the leading edge of the cold front working southward into our region. Based on good run- to-run consistency noted in the ECMWF AI and several other models trending this direction, we have again lowered maximum temperatures on Sunday for areas generally along and north of a Llano to Austin to La Grange line. At least one of the hi-res models is also trending this direction and with high rain chances and cold air advection, there is opportunity to lower temperatures farther to the south. SPC maintains a low risk (level 1 of 5) for a strong storm or two for areas east of I-35/south of I-10 on Sunday. Suspect much will depend on the speed of the low-level cold air advection, but we certainly can't rule out a strong storm or two near the coastal plains region.

Beginning Sunday night, the upper level system will slide eastward and shift the higher rain chances into southeast Texas. Gusty northeast winds will filter in as cold air advection increases. Monday should remain dry and cold for most areas, although a lingering shower could occur along and east of the Highway 77 corridor. Rainfall amounts for the weekend should remain lowest along the Rio Grande, where up to 0.10" is expected. Farther east into the Hill Country and along the I-35/I-37 corridors, some fairly widespread 1" amounts are forecast. Amounts increase to near 2" over the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor.

High temperatures on Monday will be much cooler with gusty northeast winds and plenty of cloud cover keeping highs down in the the lower 50s to lower 60s. We may need to go cooler with our forecast highs in the Hill Country pending later model data. Cool temperatures linger into Tuesday as northeast winds begin to ease. Winds will trend to a more east to southeasterly direction for Wednesday and Thursday as broad, but fairly weak southwest flow aloft sets up. This in addition to the subtropical jet near of just south of the region will yield some low end (20-40%) precipitation chances for most areas through Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR skies will last through the night as the return to cloudiness will begin at the mid levels first. Just before daybreak the upstream short synoptic scale trough begins to impact West TX with lowering cloud heights and light shower activity closing in on DRT. We'll show some light showers as early as 10Z, but the arrival of MVFR CIGs to not form until the showery areas begin to shift east toward I-35. I-35 terminals will take much longer to saturate with shower chances not showing up until the afternoon and CIGS to remain VFR through the next 30 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 51 68 56 59 / 0 20 70 100 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 70 55 61 / 0 20 80 100 New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 70 57 66 / 0 30 80 90 Burnet Muni Airport 50 66 55 58 / 0 20 60 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 72 62 76 / 40 30 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 48 67 52 58 / 0 10 70 100 Hondo Muni Airport 52 72 60 70 / 0 30 70 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 49 71 56 67 / 0 30 80 100 La Grange - Fayette Regional 50 71 57 65 / 0 20 60 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 53 70 60 69 / 0 30 80 90 Stinson Muni Airport 54 72 62 70 / 0 30 70 80

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.