textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper low will be moving over western Texas late this afternoon and moving across the region overnight into Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of the dryline west of our area will keep rain chances across most of South Central Texas today excluding the coastal plains. Thunderstorms may develop over the northern I-35 corridor early this afternoon, but capping would keep any activity isolated with most models keeping the cap in place. That said, severe weather would be possible with any isolated thunderstorm during this time with all hazards possible.

The bulk of activity is still expected to begin over West Texas into Val Verde County towards late afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. To note, this is a bit sooner than previous forecasts for initial development in the west. All modes of severe weather are in play later this afternoon and evening with an environment favorable for very large hail greater than 2 inches, damaging winds up to 75 mph and even some tornadoes. Storms will initially be supercellular, then form into a line along the Pacific cold front moving west to east across the CWA. Low level parameters remain favorable for tornado risk through late tonight especially if any cells remain discrete ahead of the main line. Even when storms form into a line and strong wind potential increases, brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. As storms continue to move east late tonight, weakening instability may diminish severe thunderstorm intensity as they approach the I-35 corridor sometime near or after midnight.

Backtracking slightly to talk about heavy rain, the level 2 to 4 risk for excessive rainfall remains over the southern Edwards Plateau but has been expanded further east into all of the Hill Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor. Heavy downpours will accompany any storms today into tonight. Guidance has been consistent with heavy rain over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight with HREF guidance indicating local amounts from 2 to 4 inches which may lead to flash flooding over this area. We will have to monitor how storms trend tonight, but overall as storm intensity decreases late tonight and early Wednesday morning the heavy rain threat will also decrease. Rain amounts will vary across the area with perhaps some locations in the Rio Grande Plains missing out entirely on rain.

The upper low deepens slightly as it moves over South Central Texas Wednesday morning and is slightly slower to exit the area. Rain chances linger over the I-35 corridor and coastal plains tomorrow morning, with wrap around showers and thunderstorms over portions of the northern I-35 corridor and coastal plains into the afternoon. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe tomorrow with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Dry conditions are expected by Wednesday evening bringing the end of rain chances to our area for the rest of the short and long term forecast.

UPDATE

Issued at 833 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for portions of the Hill Country including Travis county until 2 AM CDT Wednesday. All severe hazards possible ahead and along the Pacific front pushing over our area.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The upper low will be moving over western Texas late this afternoon and moving across the region overnight into Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of the dryline west of our area will keep rain chances across most of South Central Texas today excluding the coastal plains. Thunderstorms may develop over the northern I-35 corridor early this afternoon, but capping would keep any activity isolated with most models keeping the cap in place. That said, severe weather would be possible with any isolated thunderstorm during this time with all hazards possible.

The bulk of activity is still expected to begin over West Texas into Val Verde County towards late afternoon and continue into the overnight hours. To note, this is a bit sooner than previous forecasts for initial development in the west. All modes of severe weather are in play later this afternoon and evening with an environment favorable for very large hail greater than 2 inches, damaging winds up to 75 mph and even some tornadoes. Storms will initially be supercellular, then form into a line along the Pacific cold front moving west to east across the CWA. Low level parameters remain favorable for tornado risk through late tonight especially if any cells remain discrete ahead of the main line. Even when storms form into a line and strong wind potential increases, brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. As storms continue to move east late tonight, weakening instability may diminish severe thunderstorm intensity as they approach the I-35 corridor sometime near or after midnight.

Backtracking slightly to talk about heavy rain, the level 2 to 4 risk for excessive rainfall remains over the southern Edwards Plateau but has been expanded further east into all of the Hill Country and portions of the northern I-35 corridor. Heavy downpours will accompany any storms today into tonight. Guidance has been consistent with heavy rain over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight with HREF guidance indicating local amounts from 2 to 4 inches which may lead to flash flooding over this area. We will have to monitor how storms trend tonight, but overall as storm intensity decreases late tonight and early Wednesday morning the heavy rain threat will also decrease. Rain amounts will vary across the area with perhaps some locations in the Rio Grande Plains missing out entirely on rain.

The upper low deepens slightly as it moves over South Central Texas Wednesday morning and is slightly slower to exit the area. Rain chances linger over the I-35 corridor and coastal plains tomorrow morning, with wrap around showers and thunderstorms over portions of the northern I-35 corridor and coastal plains into the afternoon. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe tomorrow with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main hazards. Dry conditions are expected by Wednesday evening bringing the end of rain chances to our area for the rest of the short and long term forecast.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Dry weather is expected for the long term period. Cooler weather is expected Thursday with another day by day warming trend through the weekend. The warmest day of the week is forecast Sunday but will need to watch the timing of the next cold front which is expected to move across the area Sunday night. A big cool down is expected for the start of next week bringing temperatures closer to seasonable levels for mid-March.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

All area sites are reporting VFR as of 2320Z. However, thunderstorm activity is on the way across the southern Edwards Plateau moving into the Hill Country and away from the I-35 corridor terminals. A line of strong to severe storms is forecast to push across Val Verde county around the 02Z to 05z time frame and then slowly push to the east overnight. A broken line of storms is forecast to affect the I-35 corridor between dawn and 12Z time window. Around midnight tonight (05Z), MVFR cigs are forecast for the I-35 sites with lowering cigs as low as IFR as storms push overhead. VFR conditions return in the wake of Pacific front with wind shifting to the west and then northwest in the afternoon. Moderate wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible during the afternoon period. KDRT should clear the convective activity overnight with light and variable winds during the early morning hours of Wednesday, but wind flow does increase to about 15 knots and gusting up to 25 knots in the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 64 82 48 69 / 80 40 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 82 46 68 / 70 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 83 48 69 / 70 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 79 45 67 / 90 30 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 59 87 52 74 / 80 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 79 45 67 / 80 40 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 60 83 46 72 / 90 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 83 47 70 / 70 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 81 49 68 / 50 70 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 83 50 70 / 80 30 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 84 51 71 / 70 30 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.