textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average high temperatures through Friday, with weekend temperatures moderating behind a Friday cold front.

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions possible most days due to low minimum humidities and moderate southerly winds especially along the Rio Grande.

- Dry conditions continue with little or no rain expected; however, a potential rain scenario may come into play just outside the 7-day forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A weak nearly stationary frontal boundary sits over South Central TX today, but an upper ridge axis is aligned above this boundary to keep subsidence in control. The boundary will wash away tonight with a more uniform south breeze back in place by daybreak as the high pressure ridge begins to amplify northward again. Moderated temperatures were able to benefit from the extra morning cloudiness that pooled near the frontal boundary. Tonight will also see cooler mins since the south winds will not have taken over fully until near daybreak. Moderated temps will not be the case for Tuesday, but some brief morning clouds might impact the daytime high ever slightly. Needless to say, most of the day will have mostly sunny skies and temperatures under the building upper ridge will pick back up to well above normal. Likewise Tuesday nights temperatures will remain above normal under the persistent south breeze and another round of predawn low cloudiness for most areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The SW CONUS upper ridge continues to amplify over TX Wednesday with a strong zonal flow at the top of the ridge over CO to keep the surface trough in place over the high plains of NW TX. The surface pressure gradient will thus be fairly tight to promote breezy conditions while a large dry layer above the morning boundary layer will mix in and minimize daytime clouds and lower RH values. This pattern will persist into Friday, so our warmest days and largest concerns for fire weather issues are going to be Wednesday through Friday. The next front arrives into the Hill Country Friday afternoon and could present the most impactful fire weather conditions across the northern half of the forecast area. The front packs a bigger punch into TX, making it to Deep South TX over the weekend. There is a hint of overrunning moisture for low rain chances, but there aren't enough model solutions to push us into advertising in the current forecast. What can be expected is a better correction on temperatures with Saturday's maxes struggling to get out of the 70s. Sunday will also be relatively mild as the return flow southerlies don't get established until late in the day. Another nice feature of this next front is that the upper ridge will not be as pronounced over it. This means we should get more clouds, more moisture and be better poised for rain opportunities that could arrive as early as next Tuesday when an upper trough approaches.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions remain for all local terminals through the overnight hours. MVFR and IFR cigs are forecast for the I-35 sites around 10Z and staying that way to about 16Z Tuesday. Light southerly winds and at times variable are prevailing this evening through Tuesday morning. By 17Z Tuesday, VFR conditions return with southerly winds in place and speeds ranging from the 8 to 12 knots with occasional gusts up to 22 knots especially for KDRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 60 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 59 88 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 57 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 60 91 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 87 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 55 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 87 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 86 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 60 88 64 91 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.