textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 137 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Continued above normal temperatures through Thursday then much cooler temperatures for Friday into the weekend.

- Low rain chances through Wednesday generally along and east of the I-35 corridor; focus then shifts to the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau late Wednesday into early Friday.

- Heavy rainfall possible across portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Some early afternoon showers are beginning to develop mainly along and east of the Interstate 35/37 corridors. These showers are developing within an axis of higher atmospheric moisture content as noted by the 12/12Z sounding at CRP measuring precipitable water values of 2.7" and GOES blended TPW product. The hi-res models generally agree in showing the better coverage of showers and storms within this axis of higher moisture for today. By early evening, a decrease in convection is expected as daytime heating eases. Expect another warm night with lows in the 70s as southerly flow in the lower levels will persist. Widespread low cloud development will occur again late this evening into early Tuesday morning. Moisture levels will be higher over the coastal plains into the Highway 77 corridor, so any rain chances on Tuesday will be confined to the above mentioned areas. High temperatures on Tuesday should nudge upward slightly, with upper 80s to upper 90s in the forecast. The heat and humidity will push afternoon heat index values into the 103-105 degree range along the I-35 corridor, with near 107 degrees possible in the coastal plains region. More widespread low cloud development will occur Tuesday night, resulting in more overnight lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

On Wednesday, the models show the moist axis retrograding westward slightly into the Interstate 35 corridor and portions of the Hill Country. With strong afternoon heating (highs upper 80s to upper 90s), we should see another round of isolated to scattered convection develop from the coastal plains westward into the Hill Country. Late in the day, the focus for convection will shift farther west into western Val Verde County where southwest flow aloft and enhanced moisture from 'Simon' will slowly nudge eastward. The WPC Day 3 outlook highlights the western half of Val Verde County in a Level 1 of 4 risk for heavy rainfall. Current trends suggest the better chance for rain would likely occur very late Wednesday or early Thursday morning. Enhanced moisture and lift remain focused over our western areas again on Thursday into Friday, with WPC showing a level 2 of 4 risk for heavy rain across Val Verde into western Edwards and Kinney counties, with a level 1 of 4 risk into the Rio Grande plains northward into the western Hill Country.

The next feature of interest will be a cold front set to move into the region late Thursday into early Friday morning. Models continue to show higher rain chances across portions of the southern Edwards where the front will encounter high moisture levels, with much lower or non-existent rain chances for areas along and east of I-35. It will be windy behind the front on Friday, followed by much cooler temperatures and dry weather for the upcoming weekend. Weekend highs will be in the lower 70s to lower for most of the region along with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Some low rain chances may enter the forecast on Monday with a broad upper low to our west. However, chances should remain low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stubborn MVFR ceilings may linger through 19Z before VFR conditions persist this afternoon and evening. A few showers have already developed over the coastal plains where isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are most favored through the afternoon. Some activity could impact KAUS but confidence is not high enough to warrant a TEMPO, though amendments could be made. Other TAF sites should remain dry. Moderate south-southeast to east-southeasterly winds are forecast into this evening with gusts from 20 to 25 knots at times. Wind subsides slightly overnight but increases again mid Tuesday morning. MVFR to IFR ceilings develop as early as 06-07Z at I-35 terminals eventually reaching KDRT closer to 10Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 94 77 93 / 10 10 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 76 93 / 10 10 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 74 92 75 90 / 10 10 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 93 76 92 / 10 10 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 76 96 76 94 / 10 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 76 94 / 10 10 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 95 76 94 / 10 30 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 94 77 92 / 10 10 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 77 96 78 95 / 10 10 10 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.