textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather pattern develops today and continues through the middle of next week with daily shower and storm chances. Strong to marginally severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible most days.

- Well above average temperatures continue through the middle of next week, though possibly much cooler on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1245 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A mid/upper level trough passes well to our north over the Central Plains sending a cold front south into Texas that stalls just to our north of our area this evening. Then, on Thursday, another mid/upper level trough moving over the Great Basin sends the front back north away from our area. Though the best forcing is off to our north, there is enough for mainly drizzle/light showers in the short term. However, with afternoon sunshine, the airmass becomes more unstable with a few thunderstorms possible during the afternoon into evening hours. Forecast MLCAPE of 1,500 J/Kg and steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5 C/km east to 8.5 C/km west indicate a potential of strong to severe storms. SPC has a marginal (1 of 5) risk along and west of the I-35 corridor for today and for Val Verde County for Thursday. Large hail and locally heavy rains will be main impacts. The lower level thermal ridge maintains the ongoing temperature trends.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1245 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

While moving from the Great Basin to the Four Corners and Central Rockies, the trough splits with one part moving to the east over the Plains later on Friday into Saturday with the other part moving to the southwest to off Baja California where it develops into a closed low and remains there this weekend into early next week. The Plains part of the trough sends a dryline into western parts of our area on Friday, then a cold front south that may stall across or just south of our area Saturday night. Forcing increases from these features with rain chances on the increase going into this weekend. Then, rain chances are maintained as mid level impulses rotate around the closed low off Baja along while the front dissipates or lifts back to the north later this weekend into early next week. Finally, guidance appears to be coming into agreement with the Baja low opening up into a trough and moving over our area during the middle of next week. As a result, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected from the end of this week through the middle of next week. However, it must be noted that closed lows near Baja can be fickle with respect to the timing of opening up and moving over our area. The latest guidance continues to show a 50 to 75% chance for at least 1 inch rainfall for most of our area with a potential for multiple inches across some areas. Moderate instability and shear may allow for a few strong to severe storms, though heavier rains are expected to be the main impact. As the weekend into next week gets into the CAMs, the timing of the rounds of rain will be fine tuned. The widespread cloudiness and areas of rain should result in "cooler", though still above average temperatures late this week through the early next week. However, some models are trending much cooler for Sunday due to cold advection underneath thick cloud cover resulting in below average high temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

MVFR ceilings have made it to Austin and San Antonio, but won't get to DRT until close to sunrise. We expect ceilings to stay MVFR in Austin and San Antonio, and some drizzle is likely starting around sunrise. The drizzle will be light and not reduce visibility. Ceilings will rise to VFR by mid-afternoon. There is 30% chance for showers during the late afternoon and about a 20% chance earlier in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 67 85 68 / 40 30 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 66 86 66 / 40 30 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 65 85 66 / 40 30 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 80 65 82 66 / 40 30 40 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 68 87 65 / 20 20 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 65 85 66 / 40 20 40 10 Hondo Muni Airport 86 64 87 64 / 30 30 30 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 65 87 66 / 40 30 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 68 85 67 / 40 20 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 67 86 68 / 40 30 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 86 68 87 68 / 40 20 30 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.