textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average high temperatures through the end of next week with record highs possible today.

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions possible most days due to low minimum humidities and moderate southerly winds.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A look at the latest GOES-19 Water Vapor imagery shows broad zonal flow across the CONUS with mid-level ridging being squished further south into northern Mexico. This ridging will actually migrate further east over the coming days, resulting in increasing afternoon temperatures by midweek. For now, a cold front currently oriented from northeast to southwest from Oklahoma City to Wichita Falls to Lubbock will continue moving south and east this afternoon.

Compressional heating ahead of this approaching front and an increased pressure gradient between a surface low over northeast Texas and a surface high over the upper Midwest will maintain breezy southerly winds this afternoon through late evening. Temperatures will soar to near or above record highs today, in the lower to middle 90s outside of the Rio Grande Plains, and upper 90s along the Rio Grande. Near-Critical fire weather conditions are expected across all of South Central Texas today, but for more on that, see the fire weather discussion below.

Monday will be cooler, but not significantly cooler as highs climb into the 80s along with increased clouds, particularly over eastern areas.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Tuesday and beyond will be dominated by mid-level ridging just west of the area, over the Four Corners. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday before another cold front approaches sometime on Friday. This appears to be yet another dry frontal passage as it is embedded in northwesterly flow. We continue to be hopeful for rainfall in the 8-14 day range as a pattern change may be in the works. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR flight conditions continue through the period for the TAF sites. A clear sky is forecast through at least the evening. Low clouds are then expected to develop across the coastal plains with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility across that area. While the low clouds do expand westward, the latest HREF and REFS ensemble members only indicate a 20 to 50% probability for MVFR/IFR ceilings over the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). As a result, elected to put in a sct group with 1,000 foot bases at each of those sites. Any of the low clouds then erode by Monday afternoon. Southerly breezes will be moderate to occasionally breezy this afternoon with some gusts as high as 20 to 25 kt. Winds eventually relax from the overnight into Monday morning. A weak front pushes across the Hill Country and will fade as it moves into the I-35 corridor. This should help to shift winds at KAUS and KDRT more northeasterly to east-northeasterly and a bit more easterly at KSAT and KSSF from Monday morning into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Breezy southerly winds of 10-20 mph combined with minimum relative humidities between 10-25 percent will result in near- critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect until 8pm to cover the fire threat. Fuel dryness remains dry to critically dry over much of South Central Texas today. A weak cold front is expected to slip into the region tonight, but winds should be much lighter as the front fizzles out over the central portion of the CWA on Monday. Increased cloud cover and increased RH values should limit fire potential Monday. Increasing temperatures and Min RH values between 20-30% will continue each afternoon this week, so at least elevated fire conditions will develop each day, particularly during days with stronger wind speeds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 61 87 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 59 87 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 82 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 88 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 56 88 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 57 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 59 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 59 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.