textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon.

- Drier with summer-like temperatures through the weekend.

- A Pacific cold front may bring widespread rain next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Our stagnant weather pattern remains in place tonight. Upper air analysis this evening showed a 500mb high centered over southeast TX and a large amplitude ridge stretching from there to the northern plains. The flow over TX was anticyclonic and light. At the surface the weak frontal boundary has pushed to the northeast into Central and East TX. The low level flow across our CWA is from the southeast keeping a warm (hot), moist airmass in place. The upper high will remain in place through the short term period. The frontal boundary may push back toward our CWA. There may be enough instability around the front to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening again, but coverage looks to be less than earlier in the week. Any convection should dissipate quickly after sunset leading to a dry night. Friday it looks like the upper high will suppress any convection keeping the entire are dry. Temperatures through the period will be about the same as the last few days.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The upper high will slowly shift to the south and west through the end of the week. Strong subsidence from this feature will prevent any convection Friday and Saturday. The airmass over South-Central Texas remain about the same with low level flow from the east to southeast. Temperatures will will also be stagnant through the weekend. It will feel like an endless summer rather than the start of fall. By Sunday the upper high will have shifted far enough that isolated showers and thunderstorms will return during the afternoon and early evening. This pattern will repeat Monday. Tuesday models are showing the first real front of the season moving into TX. This will bring chances for widespread rain Tuesday and Wednesday. The front will move through our CWA Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Northerly to northeasterly winds behind the front will bring cooler, drier air. Highs Wednesday will be in the 80s in the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau and near 90 in the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the day. Shower coverage is expected to be less than yesterday with about a 10-15 percent chance for any activity to approach terminals; therefore, have not included any precipitation mention in the forecast. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop in portions of the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau Friday morning and may briefly impact SAT/SSF before VFR returns for the remainder of Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 98 72 97 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 98 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 97 72 95 / 10 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 69 93 / 0 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 98 71 96 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 74 95 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.