textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly fair weather this weekend with warm and humid conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies

- Increasing moisture allows for returning rain and storm chances next week, peaking mid to late week

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A west-southwesterly flow trends across the region through the weekend. Weak embedded upper level energy within the flow allowed for a couple isolated storms to develop across West Texas and the higher terrain of Mexico during yesterday afternoon/evening with this activity weakening on the approach toward Val Verde County and/or the Southern Edwards Plateau. This should be the case both later this evening and again on Sunday evening as well. The flow aloft will otherwise supply plenty of mid to high level clouds streaming across the region, especially today into tonight. This could result in some virga or even a few light sprinkles reaching the surface but any measurable rainfall would remain unlikely in association with this activity. Temperatures peak in the mid to upper 80s to slightly above 90 degrees across the region but I'll trend a little lower compared to the NBM output given the mid to high level clouds. Overnights will be warm and humid with some development of low stratus and morning low temperatures that generally remain in the low to mid 70s across the region.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Medium (30-60%) chances for rain and storms return each day next week as moisture levels increase coming off the Gulf with a slight uptick in the onshore flow. Precipitable water values increase to around the 90th percentile for this time of year. South-Central Texas will also remain between an area of troughing near Baja California and a broad weakness across the Gulf. The troughing around Baja or at least pieces that strip off from this trough may slowly slide eastward as we go through the mid to late week time frame and provide slightly better forcing. Overall, wind shear remains rather weak and this will keep any convection rather unorganized. This supports more of a scattered pop-up and quickly collapse type of convective regime compared to squall lines and mesoscale complex regimes. Average QPF across the region also supports this with amounts up to around one inch over the next 7 days. The elevated moisture will result in a humid stretch with skies trending generally partly to mostly cloudy. The daytime afternoon highs run in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s while overnights run in the low to mid 70s for most.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Area Doppler radars are showing light rain/drizzle, however, can't find a surface observation reporting precipitation (the last hour). Otherwise, IFR and MVFR cigs to prevail across the local area terminals for the next few hours before VFR conditions come back. Southerly winds of 5 to 12 knots to prevail through the forecast period. MVFR return late tonight/overnight to the local terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 91 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 72 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 90 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 74 95 76 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 71 89 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 72 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 74 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 73 90 75 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.