textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue

- A more unsettled weather pattern develops with rain and storm chances from midweek through the weekend; stronger storms and locally heavy rain may be possible

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Little change through the short term as the conditions remain warm and humid with southerly low-level winds. Winds become occasionally gusty, especially Tuesday afternoon. During the progression of the short term, the mid-level flow aloft transitions from a northwest flow entering today to more of a westerly flow by early Tuesday then to a southwesterly flow into Tuesday night. High temperatures will top out in the 80s each afternoon while overnight lows range in the upper 50s and 60s. Tuesday will be slightly warmer both during the day and from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Anticipate low stratus development from the overnight into each morning. While a pocket or two of patchy fog will be possible into each morning, the low stratus remains far more favored than fog development. For the Lunar Eclipse occurring early tomorrow morning, the low stratus development will result in poor to nonexistent viewing conditions across the region. Best chances for viewability initially may occur along the Rio Grande before the low clouds spread into that region as well. Rain chances are not expected through the day on Tuesday but there may be drizzle and/or a few light showers in the area early Wednesday morning within the low stratus.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The first upper level disturbance with this upcoming pattern change is forecast to advance into the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles and the Central Plains on Wednesday. The greatest lift and rainfall with this system will concentrate north of our region. However, the latest guidance does still have enough in place, to promote low to medium (20-50%) rain and storm chances across eastern half of the region from the afternoon into evening. With the best lift staying farther to the north, we'll likely have to contend with a bit of capping aloft and we'll analyze this more closely as additional short term guidance becomes available. Otherwise, the activity may be mostly light advection showers and/or drizzle associated with moisture trapped underneath the cap. Thursday looks to trend as a transition day with little rain in-between the initial upper level disturbance that ejects to the northeast and the next upper level system digging into the Desert Southwest.

This system digging into the Desert Southwest will be a big driver on promoting even better rain and storm chances from this weekend through the start of next week. While the overall evolution and timing of the system will remain up in the air over the next few days, it could evolve into a cutoff low near or off Baja California. A slower evolution like this scenario, would help to prolong area rain/storm chances with any occasional embedded shortwave energy strips off from the upper low and advances toward our region within the southwesterly flow aloft. If the system trends towards a more progressive trend, it would narrow our window for rain/storm chances, primarily to the main lobe of upper level energy and the frontal boundary that advances into the region. Nonetheless of how exactly this system ultimately evolves, this is a much better and favorable pattern for rainfall compared to the recent weeks and winter we just had. The latest ensemble guidance provides around a 50 to 75% chance for at least 1 inch rainfall for the majority of the region trough next Monday, with potential for several inches across some locations. With the system on Wednesday and the system heading into the weekend, there may be enough combination of wind shear and instability for some stronger storms at times. These stronger cells will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall as well, with heavier rainfall rates.

Above average temperatures will continue with a slight lowering of the temperatures this weekend into Monday with the combination of the cloud cover, greatest rain chances, and perhaps with slight cooling following the eventual passage of the front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR CIGs early this evening at all TAF sites before MVFR CIGs return as clouds increase overnight. Southerly winds are expected at all sites with wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots through the night. Wind speeds increase once VFR CIGs return in the afternoon for all I-35 TAF sites with gusts up to 25 knots possible. For KDRT expect VFR CIGs to continue until sunrise before MVFR CIGs return. Southerly winds of 10 to 15 knots can be expected before speeds increase further late morning up to 25 knots once VFR conditions resume.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 87 67 84 / 0 0 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 88 67 86 / 0 0 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 88 66 84 / 0 0 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 61 85 65 81 / 0 0 0 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 86 66 85 / 0 0 10 50 Hondo Muni Airport 60 88 64 87 / 0 0 10 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 87 66 86 / 0 0 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 87 67 85 / 0 0 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 87 67 85 / 10 0 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 63 88 68 87 / 0 0 10 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.