textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 936 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Low to medium (10-45%) rain/storm chances across portions of the region each day.

- Above average temperatures continue with elevated afternoon heat indices, along and east of the I-35 corridor into the Rio Grande Plains.

UPDATE

Issued at 936 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

As, remnants of Edouard continue to wash away at low levels, remnant mid level moisture and circulation have been holding together better as a westward moving TUTT low over the Gulf nudges the overall pattern slowly westward. This is placing a more moisture filled mid level layer into Central TX with moist northerly winds at 700 and 500 mbs bringing weak radar echoes and a fairly solid layer of mid level clouds into our northeast counties. This should translate to a about a 2-6 degree cooling trend over parts of Lee and Williamson counties or the afternoon maxes. A subtle upward adjustment was also made for PoPs to show slightly more area getting the slight chance of rain. A peek at the latest rapid refresh and morning model data would suggest this more moist and relatively milder trend could continue into the weekend, but we'll wait to show these possible trends only after the midday routine package is due.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Edouard's low-level circulation located to the northwest of Lufkin, Texas continues it's drift to the north-northwest but is expected to dissipate in the next 24 hours. Edouard's mid-level vorticity (spin) and moisture envelope will become less focused but does spread out as it unravels with time and drifts south-southwestward through Friday. This afternoon and evening looks to have a similar or slightly lower footprint of coverage as yesterday with PoPS in the 10 to 25% range for the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of San Marcos, and across the Coastal Plains. Friday afternoon offers a slightly better chance (20-40%) and a greater coverage area across the region as that mid-level energy mentioned above centers more atop South-Central Texas. Any isolated heavier downpours, will be capable of producing an inch or little more in a short time.

Yesterday's afternoon highs were slightly higher than the consensus guidance but dew points were able to efficiently mix out to keep the peak heat indices at or below 108 degrees across majority of the region. For today, I'll adjust slightly above the NBM and other consensus aids to reflect a similar outcome. This would allow highs to range mainly from the upper 90s into the 100 to 102 degree range across the region, while locations near and along the Rio Grande climb into the 103 to 105 degree range. With enough mixing of the dew points, the peak heat indices will mostly range from the 103 to 108 degree range but a few locales across the Coastal and/or Rio Grande Plains may briefly exceed 108 degrees. Friday's afternoon highs and highest heat indices look to trend a little lower in comparison to today. Warm and humid overnight conditions are expected with morning lows in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

This weekend and through much of next week looks to primarily see any low to medium (15-45%) rain and storm chances become generally confined to the areas along and east of the I-35 corridor through the coastal plains during each afternoon and evening in association with the sea breeze. The sea breeze may be slightly boosted by the help from moisture and weak mid-level energy with an inverted trough that slides west across the northern Gulf waters. Saturday could be a little exception, where lingering mid-level energy from Friday could allow for isolated shower or storm activity to pop up across the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. Otherwise, the temperatures remain generally persistent featuring afternoon highs from the low 90s to around 100 degrees and overnight lows in the 70s. Winds will trend light to moderate from the southeast with slightly gustier conditions near and after sunset with the sea breeze.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Low cloud development has spread over portions of the I-35 corridor most notably over KSAT/KSSF. KAUS may still see some brief MVFR development but VFR conditions should return late morning for all locations. Some isolated afternoon convection will be possible near AUS late this afternoon, but coverage is too low to mention at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 99 77 97 75 / 20 20 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 77 96 73 / 20 20 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 76 97 73 / 10 10 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 97 75 93 73 / 20 30 30 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 104 79 102 78 / 0 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 76 94 75 / 30 30 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 102 75 98 74 / 10 0 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 76 96 72 / 20 20 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 96 74 / 30 30 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 78 97 75 / 10 10 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 102 77 99 75 / 10 10 20 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.