textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect for Val Verde County Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.

- Cooler air arrives behind a cold front early Friday with below normal temperatures to continue at least into early Monday.

- Increasing high and low temperatures are forecast from Monday through the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The potential for flooding has increased over Val Verde County as a very moist airmass will be in place over West Texas and approaches our far western counties bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While rain chances begin over the southern Edwards Plateau tonight and continue through Friday morning, the main focus for heavy rain will be Thursday afternoon through Friday morning over Val Verde County. A Flood Watch has been issued for this timeframe for Val Verde County. Heavy rain will end throughout Friday morning as a cold front brings cooler and drier air to the area.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A strong trough has pivoted over the Four Corners region today resulting in the upper ridge previously over the Texas Gulf to elongate and center itself over the southeastern US this afternoon. This has resulted in a push of low level moisture from the Gulf to move inland bringing low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances from the coastal plains towards the I-35 corridor through this evening. Any activity will likely be isolated or widely scattered so the majority will just see another hot, humid and breezy day. Drier air then moves over the eastern half of the forecast area tonight allowing for slightly "cooler" lows east but "warmer" conditions west. Additionally in the west, southwesterly flow aloft becomes more established today leading to increasing rain chances across the southern Edwards Plateau through the short term period.

Ongoing rain in West Texas will move slightly further east tonight shifting a deep plume of moisture associated with Hurricane Simon in the Pacific towards the area. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms could occur through Friday morning in Val Verde County with some activity possibly bleeding into Edwards or Kinney Counties tonight. The majority of guidance keeps this band of heavy rain primarily in West Texas, but a few models do have some isolated totals around 4 inches into eastern Val Verde County. WPC highlights a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall tonight with a level 2 of 4 risk Thursday into Friday over Val Verde.

A strong cold front gets sent our way late Thursday night or early Friday morning, advancing across the entire area by Friday morning. A line of showers may develop along the quickly moving front bringing low rain chances to much of the area through Friday morning, but pre-exisiting drier air over the area will greatly limit the amount of measurable precipitation received to a few hundredths to possibly a few tenths of an inch. Drier air behind the front will gradually end any ongoing precipitation in the western portion of the area once it moves through as well. More on our post- frontal conditions in the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The front will either be entirely through or through the vast majority of South Central Texas by sunrise Friday morning as it tracks south across the state. Northerly wind quickly increases behind this feature while temperatures rapidly cool.

There remains some variance in models on exactly how cool air behind the front is but hi-res guidance seems to favor a cooler solution than the global ensembles; therefore, have trended slightly cooler than the NBM with this update. Highs somewhere in the 60s north to possibly low 80s south are forecast Friday with windy conditions through the day. Gusty wind will gusts as high as 40 mph are expected Friday into Saturday morning, with a gradual weakening of winds Saturday into Sunday. A Wind Advisory during this time may be issued. Cooler and more Fall-like weather stick around through Monday morning with highs in the 60s or 70s and lows in the 40s or 50s.

Ensemble guidance brings back warmer highs and lows for the start of the week into the mid-week period with some low PoPs over the area. Ridging is favored to build over the area during this time ahead of another trough in the west.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Remaining isolated SHRA near KAUS is weakening and should dissipate by about 03Z. Breezy southeast flow continues areawide but should weaken some overnight. This will allow low MVFR CIGs to redevelop with greater confidence at KSAT/KDRT. KAUS/KSSF may be near the eastern edge MVFR cloud deck once it establishes, so confidence in persistent MVFR there is lower. CIGs lift to VFR and break to FEW/SCT for most areas by 17Z tomorrow, but more persistent moisture favors potential FL025-FL040 cloud decks remaining at KDRT through 16/00Z. Winds during the afternoon will be weaker than they were Wednesday. A strong cold front is expected to bring a sharp shift to northerly winds just beyond the 00Z TAF period, early Friday morning. This wind shift and strong prevailing northerlies will likely be introduced in subsequent TAF cycles.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 90 64 72 / 10 0 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 90 64 73 / 10 10 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 89 65 73 / 10 10 30 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 87 60 67 / 10 0 40 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 89 62 69 / 30 30 60 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 90 61 70 / 10 0 40 10 Hondo Muni Airport 70 91 64 75 / 10 10 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 90 64 73 / 10 10 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 91 66 75 / 0 0 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 89 66 73 / 10 10 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 91 68 75 / 10 10 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183.