textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across parts of South Central Texas the rest of today

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threats continue on Thursday into Friday

- Dry and cooler over the weekend with a warming trend early to middle of next week

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of South Central Texas for the rest of today into the evening. Several mid level disturbances are forecast to push across the local area to enhance instability as a cold front pushes over the Hill Country, Interstate 35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains through the period. The front extends from Georgetown to Kerrville to central Val Verde County as of 1230 PM. Earlier hires guidance had storms developing over the Hill Country for the 12 PM hour, however, the cap is holding strong at Austin Bergstrom International Airport based on a recent airplane vertical profile. However, across the southern Edwards Plateau, a jump in lightning is occurring as a line of storms develop associated with the passage of one of those mid level disturbances. With that said, still thinking that isolated strong to severe storms are possible as this wave moves to the east and helps the cap to erode somewhat.

The most likely scenario for storms to develop and quickly grow to strong and severe levels is from now through 4 PM across parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. The Austin area could get an elevated storm as they move from west to east across the escarpment, but confidence is low at this time. The front continues to push to the south with storms affecting portions of the the I-35 Corridor including the San Antonio metro area and vicinity around 2 PM to 6 PM if the cap weakens or breaks. For the Coastal Plains area, if storms do develop, expect them around 5 PM into the evening.

A couple of the short term models (1 to 3 hours update periods), focused on mid to late afternoon into the evening storms across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande. If this happens, then the cap holds for the eastern part of the local area. By the way, the main severe weather threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain. Stronger storms could be capable of producing very large hail (2+ inches) due to high values of instability over the local area. Tornado risks is low. In addition, isolated pockets of heavy rain has a high probability (60+) with pwats coming in at 1.64 inches from the 12Z DRT sounding and forecast to increase to 2.0+ inches across the Hill Country, portions of the I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. With that said, isolated 1 to 2 inches of rainfall amounts and up to 4 inches are possible through this evening.

For Thursday, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms and heavy rain is in store as mid to upper level disturbances move across the local area from west to east while a low level convergence zone sits across the Hill Country, the dryline stays over the Pecos area and today's frontal boundary lingers around the Coastal Plains. With this potential setup, main threats are large hail, damaging wind gusts, and heavy rain. As far as heavy rain is concern, there are signals for isolated 1 to 3 inches with up to 6 inches over the Hill Country and parts of the I-35 Corridor including the Austin and Georgetown areas. A Flood Watch could be issued on Thursday morning. We are monitoring closely today's situation on how it plays out.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rain and storms chances continue on Friday as a surface low develops over eastern Mexico and then pushes into our area. With elevated pwats in place, it is likely to have another round of heavy rain over portions of the local area. At this time is hard to pin point those areas, however, models are focusing across the eastern half of South Central Texas.

The rain chances come to an end Friday night into the overnight hours from west to east. A cool and dry weekend awaits with highs in the 60s and 70s for Saturday and 70s on Sunday. A warming trend starts the work week with highs in the 80s and even 90s over the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A front is moving across South Central Texas today with isolated thunderstorm development expected into the evening. The potential for KAUS to see storms has gone down given the cap holding this morning, though there remains some potential at KSAT/KSSF and KDRT mid-afternoon into the evening where PROB30 groups continue. While there could be some brief scattering of ceilings today at I-35 sites, generally MVFR conditions will continue. KDRT will likely return to VFR in the next hour or so. MVFR to IFR ceilings redevelop overnight with the potential for fog as well. Better chances for additional thunderstorm development are expected Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 66 79 60 66 / 20 40 90 100 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 78 61 65 / 20 40 90 100 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 81 61 69 / 20 30 80 100 Burnet Muni Airport 62 74 56 61 / 20 60 90 100 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 82 66 75 / 40 30 90 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 74 58 61 / 20 50 90 100 Hondo Muni Airport 67 82 63 69 / 20 30 90 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 80 61 67 / 20 40 90 100 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 82 63 70 / 10 30 80 100 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 82 63 69 / 20 30 80 90 Stinson Muni Airport 68 84 65 70 / 20 20 80 90

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.