textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and more seasonable temperatures this week with low rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday for the Coastal Plains.

- Above normal temperatures possible by late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The dome of cold air helping to deliver Sunday morning's hard freeze is slowly moving southeast out of our area. Southerly low-level return flow is forecast to persist tonight, so overnight lows tonight heading into Monday morning are expected to be slightly higher in the mid to upper 30s for most. Slight moisture advection accompanying the return flow and light winds at the surface with supportive hydrolapses should support some patchy fog Monday morning mainly over the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains.

Clouds will be on the increase Monday as the leading edge of a low- level moisture plume advances north across South-Central Texas between the late-morning and mid-afternoon hours. Subsidence associated with an overhead ridge passing over the region should keeps rain chances low despite the uptick in moisture. The warmer airmass will be a little more responsive to the positive thermal advection even with the cloud cover, so highs Monday are forecast to be in the 60s to low 70s for most, aside from portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau where the cloud cover will likely keep temperatures in the 50s most of the day.

Heading into Monday night, a pair of shortwave disturbances approaching the from the northwest and west will strengthen the low- level jet over the region. In response, overnight lows are forecast to be much more mild, swinging into the upper 40s to upper 50s with the mildest conditions over the Coastal Plains and the coolest along the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

A somewhat shallow mid-level shortwave most apparent below 700mb is forecast to dive across North Texas on Tuesday. The positive tilt and shallow depth of the impulse has remained consistent in the ensemble means, so the region of ascent favoring rainfall has remained diffuse and displaced to the east and northeast. A 20-30 percent chance of isolated to scattered rain showers is forecast primarily along the Highway 77 corridor in the Coastal Plains for Tuesday, shifting south Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. To the west, drier air behind the surface trough associated with the shortwave disturbance limits rain chances, and a modest cold front arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday should eventually clear out residual showers and cloudiness.

Drier weather is forecast for the remainder of the week. The pattern of western ridge, eastern trough that the lower 48 has grown accustomed to since mid-January is expected to persist. This will help support a stretch of northerly winds in the wake of Tuesday's disturbance. A reinforcing shot of cold air is possible Thursday (with 20 to 40 percent of models showing freezing temperatures in the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau). The strength and staying power of that cold may be blunted by a Rex block pattern over the Intermountain West, moderating temperatures aloft. The ridge and warmer component of that Rex block is forecast to slosh eastward over the Plains to end the week, leading to a resurgent warming trend over our area. The current model blend indicates highs in the 70s Friday into the weekend with lows in the 40s to low 50s. The strength of the persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS causes some uncertainty in temperatures during this period, but overall the general ensemble envelop favors a warmer period arriving late this week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Low clouds will continue MVFR conditions at SAT and SSF for the next couple hours before lifting and scattering out to VFR. VFR should then continue through the afternoon and evening hours as winds trend to a more southerly direction along I-35, with southeast to east winds at DRT. Low clouds look to return early Monday morning and we will show prevailing MVFR at all sites, except for a TEMPO group at KAUS. Will continue to monitor subsequent model data for the possibility of an earlier onset of MVFR than currently forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 39 69 56 71 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 35 69 56 72 / 0 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 37 68 55 72 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 37 67 54 67 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 39 67 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 37 69 56 70 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 36 65 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 36 69 56 72 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 37 70 58 72 / 0 0 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 40 67 56 71 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 39 68 57 74 / 0 0 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.