textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Warmer than average temperatures into Thursday then much cooler temperatures for Friday into the weekend as a cold front moves across the area.

- Daily rain and storm chances with focus today through Wednesday along and east of the I-35 corridor; focus then shifts to the northwestern portions of the region later in the week

- Heavy rainfall possible across portions of the Southern Edwards Plateau Thursday through Friday

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Overnight lows should remain much more mild with many remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s. Additionally, we could see some patchy drizzle form over the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains as moisture continues to increase and pool across the area through the morning. Otherwise, for today we should begin to really feel the more humid and hotter weather across our area as southeasterly low level flow continues. For high temperatures expect highs once again in the upper 80s in the Hill Country with low to mid 90s expected elsewhere, especially along and south of I-35. However, what will be noticeable is heat indices as they will once again be back into the 100-105 degree range. So it will certainly feel like we are right back into summer yet again. Additionally, this southeasterly flow, added moisture, and a stationary front located off the TX Coast will eventually begin to lift northward as a warm front. This should help to spark off showers and storms over the Coastal Plains to the I-35 corridor in the afternoon.

Lows won't drop off much with most areas staying in the low to mid 70s as moisture remains across our area so it will feel muggy and soupy. By Tuesday, temperatures really ramp up with mid to upper 90s likely, add in the soupy and muggy airmass and we could be looking at areas approaching heat advisory criteria. We'll monitor this as we get closer. Otherwise, expect chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms over the Coastal Plains as plentiful moisture sticks around the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Lows Tuesday night will once again remain very mild for this time of year with mid to upper 70s likely areawide as the moist humid air remains. By Wednesday afternoon, we should see highs again reach the low to mid 90s along with plenty of moisture thus pushing heat indices into the 100-106 degree range. Along with the return of our typical seabreeze we should see more chances for showers and storms (30-40%) form across the Coastal Plains and perhaps as far north as the I-35 Corridor and into the Hill country.

By late week we should begin to see the pattern change once more as our subtropical ridge moves off to the east and the upper trough moves over the Rockies and into the Coastal Plains. This in turn drives a cold front down through our area. Global models have done fairly poorly so far on the timing and strength of this front so it remains to be seen just how much cooler we get behind it and how much moisture we can wring out of it. As of right now each model run keeps coming in drier for the I-35 corridor and eastern half of our area so have went with a blend of temps and pops until we get more model consistence on how this pattern unfolds. One thing that has started to happen is models are starting to hone in on moisture becoming trapped ahead of the front across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains areas. This would increase the potential for the possibility of locally heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday. As such WPC has begun to highlight mostly Val Verde County in a level 2 of 4 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall and a level 1 of 4 (marginal) risk for areas just west of highway 281 for day 4 (Thursday). Some models then bring in significantly cooler air following this front while others have it not as cool. Regardless what happens we could be looking at highs only reaching the 70s to low 80s Friday with highs remaining in the 60s and 70s for the weekend. Continue to check back in as the forecast becomes clearer in the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR flight conditions begin the period but expect for low clouds to develop and expand overnight into this morning, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Low clouds start to mix out and rise into the afternoon with returning VFR conditions. There is the chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon with a focus mostly near and east of the I-35 corridor. KAUS has the greatest probability on guidance for possible impacts. Have inserted a PROB30 for -TSRA at KAUS from 18Z to 24Z as a result. At KSAT and KSSF, elected to go with VCSH during the afternoon period. Areas farther west will remain dry, including KDRT. Moderate south-southeasterly to east-southeasterly winds are expected through the afternoon into the evening with the highest gusts along the Rio Grande, up into the 25 kt range. The rain chances subside after sunset and winds gradually lower into the overnight. Low clouds will again develop overnight into early Tuesday morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 75 95 76 / 30 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 75 94 76 / 30 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 74 94 75 / 30 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 88 73 92 74 / 20 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 94 76 97 76 / 0 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 75 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 93 75 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 75 95 75 / 30 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 75 95 76 / 40 10 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 76 94 77 / 20 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 95 77 96 77 / 20 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.