textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 544 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Spotty showers with an isolated storm or two expected today.

- Locally heavy rain Thursday into Friday, primarily along the Rio Grande into the southern Edwards Plateau.

- Mild and humid conditions to continue into the start of November before a cold front could usher in a cooler airmass around early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Little change in the overall weather pattern with a southwesterly flow holding aloft, while a humid, but modest, southeasterly low- level flow maintains off the Gulf. The humid conditions result in considerable cloudiness across the region, especially nocturnally through each morning. Late overnight into early this morning could see some patchy drizzle and minor reductions in visibility occur along and near the Balcones Escarpment. Additionally, isolated streamer showers may advance north-northwestward across the region as well from the morning into the early afternoon. Spotty showers and an isolated storm or two stay possible during the afternoon, given the moisture and limited but sufficient daytime heating. Expect activity to fade into the evening, with focus then shifting towards the west as highlighted in the paragraph below. Daytime highs across the region look to trend from the mid-to-upper 70s in the Hill Country to the low-to-mid 80s elsewhere.

After midnight tonight into Thursday, shortwave energy and moisture aloft, which at least is partially ripped off from Vance across the Eastern Pacific, becomes embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft and enters into the region. This leads to a further uptick in the area PWATs, especially along and to the west of the US highway 281 corridor, to around or greater than the 95 percentile range for the time of the year, with values climbing above 1.75 inches. The initial rain, mostly consisting of light to moderate intensity, will look to reach the Rio Grande prior to sunrise and may push as far east as into portions of the I-35 corridor throughout the day on Thursday. The rain looks like it is going to struggle on getting any farther east, where much of the Coastal Plains may be shut out from getting much rain at all on Thursday. The strongest forcing is then expected to establish late in the day through Thursday night with the axis of heaviest rain focusing from the southern Edwards Plateau northward across the Concho Valley into the Texas panhandle. WPC continues to highlight this region in the slight (Level 2 of 4) risk for rainfall that could exceed flash flood guidance Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts up to 4 inches are possible within that region. The highest totals will concentrate over Val Verde County with a sharp drop off starting around Uvalde, with the majority of the CWA seeing around an 1/2 inch or less. Cloud cover and area rains will keep most locations with daytime highs in the 70s Thursday while the drier locations along and east of I-35 into the Coastal Plains reach into the low to mid 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Activity, including the lingering risk for locally heavy rain for the southern Edwards Plateau, persists into Friday morning, with conditions then drying out into and through the afternoon in the wake of the exiting shortwave. However, a secondary but weaker shortwave then advances from west to east in the flow aloft from Friday night into Halloween Saturday. This may produce additional isolated to scattered showers and a few storms from the Southern Edwards Plateau through the Hill Country. The good news is that models indicate that the rain chances look to diminish by the evening for the trick-or-treaters.

The remainder of the weekend and into the day on Monday primarily remains rain free. Sunday and Monday should also trend with the warmest afternoons of the week with more ample sunshine. Daytime highs range from the low 80s in the Hill Country to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere. Overnights remain mild and humid.

While there are key differences within the medium range guidance, a majority of the members do indicate that a more progressive upper level storm system may take shape and advance across the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains early next week. This could provide the opportunity to drag a cold front across the area with another chance for rain and storms. Local convective parameters could support some organized convection; we'll monitor as we get closer in time. Otherwise, a north-northwesterly flow behind the front should help to usher in a drier and cooler airmass into the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Patchy to areas to isolated dense fog are developing to the east of KAUS as of 11Z. This activity is forecast to stay away from the I-35 terminals this morning. However, IFR cigs are affecting KSAT and KSSF and shortly KAUS. These low cigs remain for several hours before lifting to MVFR between 16Z and 18Z. VFR cigs come back for the rest of the afternoon and evening. For KDRT, I have a TEMPO group from 12Z to 16Z for MVFR cigs. After that period, VFR conditions return. A southeast flow of 5 to 10 knots is forecast through the forecast period. May see some gusts 15 to 20 knots for KDRT from time to time this afternoon. MVFR and IFR likely returning for the San Antonio area late tonight into Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 84 66 79 63 / 30 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 66 80 63 / 30 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 66 80 63 / 30 10 30 10 Burnet Muni Airport 81 65 75 61 / 20 10 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 67 74 64 / 10 40 80 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 65 78 62 / 30 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 84 68 78 64 / 20 20 60 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 65 80 62 / 30 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 65 83 63 / 40 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 83 67 79 64 / 20 10 40 20 Stinson Muni Airport 85 68 80 65 / 20 10 30 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.