textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Wet, dreary, and cool weather Today and Monday with the arrival of several rounds of mostly beneficial rainfall.

- Embedded heavier rain and storms to be expected at times and results in a risk for flooding.

- Drying out some with milder temperatures mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The long anticipated rain event has finally started with areas over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains getting rain first. Eventually this activity is progged to continue slowly pushing eastward and filling in over the San Antonio metro area and I-35 Corridor overnight. So far at the time of this writing these areas have yet to receive much rainfall. We have also seen some heavier showers sparked by embedded thunderstorms helping to producing those heavier rates that have been talked about in previous discussions. Expect that trend to continue with areas that see training of heavier cells able to rack up some higher totals.

Widespread rain should be ongoing by sunrise this morning as the upper level low continues to advance closer to our area. Thus we should see the most widespread and best chances of rain occur today with a lull then expected by Sunday evening across our northern and eastern areas including the Austin metro before we see another round of rain form over the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau areas. This 2nd round should continue pushing eastward late this evening and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday morning.

As the rains become more widespread throughout the day and into early Monday morning, we anticipate rain intensity to remain mostly light to moderate with hourly rates, generally below an inch per hour as instability remains very limited across the area. There is however still the possibility that some of the embedded cells could include thunderstorms, which would then enhance locally heavier rain rates, which could reach upwards to the 1 to 2 inch per hour range. It's these cells that we would need to continue to concentrate on for any possible isolated flooding, especially if they enter our urban corridors or begin training over the same areas. WPC highlights a level 1 to 2 risk for flooding across the vast majority of our region for today and into Monday. However, the vast majority of the rain, remains of the beneficial variety across our region.

We also anticipate today to be a very dreary, damp and downright miserable rainy day. As far as highs go, with the steady rainfall and extensive cloud cover we may see some areas struggle to break out of the mid 50s for highs with most remaining in the low to mid 60s. Monday looks to be more of the same with yet another dreary and raw day across our forecast area. Lows however wont drop off too much as the clouds should keep most of the area fairly insulated with most staying in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

The latest global model ensembles now have this batch of rain sticking around through Monday evening. As previously mentioned we could see some heavier embedded cells in this batch of rain that would be capable of producing heavier rainfall rates across locations that are already saturated with earlier rains during the event. WPC highlights a level 1 of 4 risk for flooding across parts of the Coastal plains and up into the majority of the San Antonio metro.

As for amounts, several hi-res models have come in suggesting slightly higher totals with the rain sticking around later into Tuesday. Thus we should see fairly widespread totals in the 1 to 4 inch range with some isolated pockets of up to 6 inches not out of the question for areas that see repeated rounds of rainfall. However, almost everyone should see at least a half inch to an inch when all is said and done. These totals may seem like a lot but we arent expecting any heavy torrential downpours but rather some good old fashioned steady cool rain that will occur over a period of several days rather than all at once.

The main upper level low eventually exits to the northeast towards Tuesday but guidance continues to keep lingering shortwave energy behind the system through Tuesday into Tuesday night. This and still the presence of some coastal troughing to the south help to keep in some low end pops (20-30%) across the area, favoring along and east of the I-35 corridor.

Wednesday into Thursday a longwave trough then becomes established stretching from the Ohio Valley into the Mississippi valley. Eventually shortwave energy will advance southeastward from the Central plains into East Texas/Texarkana region on the western periphery of aforementioned troughing. This should help advance a weak cold front across our region at some point either Wednesday or Wednesday night. The northwest flow that occurs behind this front will bring in some drier air and finally push any lingering rain chances over our eastern areas more to the southeast and out of our area by Wednesday night.

Regarding high temps, Tuesday we should see highs rebound slightly back into the low 70s for those that see breaks in the clouds and some more sunshine. However, by Wednesday we begin to return to more normal values for this time of year with everyone getting into the low to mid 70s. Thursday as the potential front begins to move through, we should see highs drop back a couple of degrees into the low 70s with this trend continuing through Friday and into the weekend. Lows will trend slightly cooler with many seeing mid 50s midweek before several areas taste there first 40s of the season to begin the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Periods of rain with some isolated embedded storms will keep a mainly IFR type of pattern over the area for the next 24-30 hours. intermittent breaks in the rain could alter VSBY and CIG heights at times, but the persistence of NE winds from the overrunning and coastal troughing pattern should keep the conditions mostly within a somewhat narrow range.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 54 67 54 / 90 70 50 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 53 66 52 / 90 70 50 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 53 66 52 / 90 80 80 20 Burnet Muni Airport 62 53 65 54 / 90 60 60 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 62 58 64 57 / 100 100 90 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 53 66 53 / 90 60 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 63 55 65 54 / 100 90 100 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 53 66 52 / 90 80 80 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 55 67 53 / 90 60 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 55 65 55 / 100 90 90 30 Stinson Muni Airport 63 57 66 56 / 90 90 100 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.