textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1232 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Breezy conditions tonight and Friday morning as a dry cold front moves across the area.

- Wet and cool this weekend with beneficial rains.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1232 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A rather weak and shallow cold front is noted via METAR observations and Water Vapor imagery channels to be located from a Burnet to Kerr to Eagle Pass line at the time of this writing. Areas behind this front have already seen winds shift from the south southeast back to the north northwest. Additionally somewhat drier air is also noted behind this front with many areas in the upper 40s with those south of the front still in the mid 60s. As this front progresses from northwest to southeast overnight expect a drop in humidity levels and also some breezy winds mainly across the hilltops of the Hill Country and higher elevations across the Balcones Escarpment. We could see sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph occur before they begin to taper off late this morning or early afternoon. Highs today should be several degrees cooler as northwest flow aloft continues to keep cooler air around especially for our northwestern areas where upper 60s to around 70 may be a struggle to achieve. Elsewhere expect highs along the I-35/U.S 90 corridor to reach the mid 70s with areas over the Coastal Plains warming up into the low 80s. Tonight expect lows in the 50s as we remain in north to northwest flow at the surface.

As has been previously mentioned, a shortwave is forecast to eventually amplify and move southward as a nearly cut-off low while it approaches Texas. As it does so it will redirect moisture over our area as mid-level winds shift southwesterly. This will also result in the development of a lee-side trough over the eastern flanks of the Mexican plateau, which in turn increases the supply of low-level moisture streaming from the Gulf. The combination of these two moisture streams overriding atop cool air will support a rather broad rain event that starts Saturday morning along the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau, then spreads across much of South-Central Texas through the day and continues into Saturday night. Because of the extensive cloud deck and rain cooled air highs on Saturday are expected to be somewhat cooler then the past few days. We are currently forecasting highs in the low to mid 60s for areas north and west of the I-35 Corridor while areas south of this should see slightly warmer highs in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1232 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

By Saturday night most place across our CWA will be experiencing rain showers or just steady rain. As moisture continues to stream together from the Gulf and the shortwave (cutoff low) that eventually looks to transition into a coastal low. Eventually this Coastal low looks to push off to the southeast taking all the moisture and rain chances with it. Right now the highest chances for seeing beneficial rains will be wherever the low-level and mid-level moisture streams overlap the most. This currently includes areas along the Rio Grande eastward towards the San Antonio area, with areas further north and east such as the austin metro area seeing less rain chances. This is because most models are hinting at low level moisture decreasing as the coastal low pushes further south and east throughout the weekend. Amounts look relatively healthy with many seeing totals in the 2 to 4 inch range with almost everyone seeing at least a half inch to an inch when all is said an done. These totals may seem like a lot but we arent expecting any heavy torrential downpours but rather some good old fashioned steady cool rain that will occur over a period of several days rather than all at once. That being said recent model runs have locked in on this coastal low sticking around slightly longer and we may see rain chances continue through monday afternoon before finally tapering off monday evening.

As far as highs go, with the steady rainfall and extensive cloud cover we may see some areas struggle to break out of the mid 50s for highs with most remaining in the low to mid 60s. Lows however wont drop off too much as the clouds should keep most of the area fairly insulated and prevent any radiational cooling form happening with most staying in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Beyond Monday as we begin to dry out we should see highs rebound back near 70 for Tuesday with temps well into the 70s to round out the end of the week along with lows remaining in the 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A weak FROPA will occur overnight bringing northwesterly winds of 10-15 mph and perhaps a brief round of MVFR ceilings at AUS. Have opted to continue with TEMPO groups to account for uncertainty in low stratus coverage post sunrise Friday. AUS confidence has increased enough to warrant MVFR TEMPO group 14-16Z tomorrow. Winds should lighten up by midday to less than 10 mph for most locations along with VFR ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 59 71 56 / 0 0 20 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 57 73 54 / 0 0 20 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 58 72 55 / 0 0 20 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 56 66 55 / 0 0 20 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 59 66 58 / 0 0 80 100 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 56 70 53 / 0 0 10 60 Hondo Muni Airport 77 57 71 56 / 0 0 40 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 57 73 54 / 0 0 20 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 59 77 56 / 0 0 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 59 71 57 / 0 0 30 60 Stinson Muni Airport 78 61 73 58 / 0 0 20 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.