textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front and northwest flow aloft brings a good chance for widespread precipitation Sunday night into early Monday morning.

-Seasonable temperatures along with dry weather are expected next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Our rain chances have dwindled for Saturday as the upper low we've been watching the last couple days continues to trend further south and weaker, opening up late this evening through Saturday morning. Nevertheless, we will still carry a low to medium chance for showers and storms this evening, primarily over the Rio Grande Plains and south of Highway 90. The upper low is rather easy to pick out on GOES-19, centered over Alpine Texas on this Friday evening. Some showers and storms have develop ahead of the low, but coverage is pretty weak. Southwest flow aloft will continue into Saturday, so low clouds in the morning and continued afternoon clouds can be expected. Saturday has trended drier in recent forecasts and the NBM has continued that trend as well. Will continue to carry 20% PoPs for the southern half of the region, but suspect most will remain dry.

Sunday, things start to get interesting again as an impressive upstream wave slides south as a trough digs over the southeastern CONUS Sunday into Monday. Sunday will be the hotter day of the weekend with morning clouds east, followed by afternoon sunshine. By late afternoon and early evening, a frontal boundary will begin to approach from the north, pushing through all of south central Texas by early Monday morning. Models continue to trend even stronger with this frontal boundary and the convection associated with it. The Storm Prediction Center has all of our region in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and northern I-35 Corridor in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning. The greatest concerns look to be large hail and damaging winds as storms developing along the front will grow upscale rather quickly.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Any lingering showers and storms should be out of the region by late Monday morning, and with light northwest flow aloft Monday, highs will climb into the 80s again along with mostly sunny skies. There may be a low end chance for some pop up showers or storms Monday afternoon, but for now the forecast remains dry.

Beyond Monday, a rather benign weather pattern sets up for the first time in awhile, with dry weather and seasonable conditions expected through late week. An active pattern may return by next weekend into the following week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue to build over South Central Texas in the overnight hours. Hi-res ensemble guidance indicates around a 50 to 80 percent chance for LIFR ceilings over the Hill Country into the San Antonio metro, though models have been a bit too bullish previous nights to include any more than a TEMPO at this time. Additionally, with the brief clear skies earlier this evening, there are decent chances for fog near the escarpment into the San Antonio area. Low ceilings eventually reach KDRT around 10Z, then expect improvement from west to east through the morning hours with VFR conditions by late morning or early afternoon. A few rain showers may reach KSAT/KSSF overnight, but confidence is too low to include in the forecast. Drier weather is favored this afternoon and evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 89 71 91 68 / 10 0 20 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 71 91 68 / 10 0 10 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 80 Burnet Muni Airport 87 69 89 65 / 0 0 30 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 71 94 69 / 0 0 0 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 70 89 66 / 10 0 20 80 Hondo Muni Airport 87 69 90 68 / 10 0 0 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 70 91 68 / 10 0 0 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 70 89 68 / 20 0 10 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 71 91 69 / 10 0 0 70 Stinson Muni Airport 89 71 92 70 / 10 0 0 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.