textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe possible across the southern Edwards Plateau and near the Rio Grande late this afternoon/evening.

- Chance for isolated storms Wednesday north of I-10.

- Warm and humid conditions to continue throughout the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The atmospheric setup for Tuesday over South-Central Texas will be similar to Monday as moist southerly flow to southeasterly flow continues. Most should stay dry for much of the day beneath a steady capping inversion and a mix of partly to mostly cloudy skies. However, the combination of a weak mid-level shortwave ejecting out of Mexico and broader height falls from a slowly approaching upper- trough will provide a more lift, giving some additional support to isolated storms later in the day over western portions of the region and providing a more conducive environment for their longevity. These storms are expected to form mainly along the dry line over West Texas and Mexico in the late afternoon, potentially crossing into the southern Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains near and after sunset. Edwards, Kinney, and Val Verde counties have the best shot at seeing storm activity, most likely between 5-10 PM. A few models show storms developing as far south as US-57, though those chances are more uncertain given stronger capping in that area. Continued synoptic ascent and a modest 30-kt low level jet could help sustain storms a little longer into the Hill Country, though weakening is expected overnight and the severe risk should lessen quickly by 12 AM midnight Wednesday before the remnant showers fade. Up to a Level 2 of 5 (Slight) risk for severe weather is highlighted, with storms presenting the typical risks for springtime West Texas supercells... large hail, strong winds, and perhaps a brief isolated tornado in the evening. The storms may also produce locally heavy rains, with a quick 1 to 3 inches possible.

The broader upper-trough nears our area Wednesday. Most of the rising motion accompanying this disturbance will be displaced well to our north, but the overlap of warm/moist air with residual ascent over our area should facilitate another period of isolated thunderstorms. The hi-res models have not been very consistent with the placement of this activity, but the trough placement would tend to favor the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during the afternoon to evening hours, with activity possibly extending into the Austin area and less of a potential south of the Balcones Escarpment. A marginal severe and excessive rain risk accompanies these storms.

Daytime temperatures today and Wednesday remain roughly seasonably warm, with highs generally in the 80s for most. Afternoon clouds and moist air, along with southeasterly flow, are helping to prevent highs from building farther. However, that moist air is also keeping overnight temperatures unseasonably mild in the 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

After Wednesday's trough passes, an upper-level ridge should provide calmer weather Thursday and Friday. We'll likely see our warmest temperatures of the week during that period as the ridge shapes a warmer airmass over the area, bringing into the upper 80s and low 90s. Despite the quieter weather, it'll still be rather humid as dew points stay at or above the 90th percentile for the rest of the week. Southerly winds should be breezy on Friday in response to a developing low-pressure system over the Central Plains, which could see exposed and elevated terrain experiencing a 20-mph sustained wind during the afternoon with gusts to around 30 mph.

An amplified trough is forecast to barrel out of the central Rockies into the Central Plains on Saturday. The deep meridional flow behind the trough is well-suited to bring a stout cold front into our area on Saturday. There will likely be storms along the front as it cycles through the warm Gulf air over South-Central Texas. Most of this activity is likely to be along and ahead of the front on Saturday, though the continued southwesterly flow should allow mid- level moisture to spill behind the front and leave behind some continued cloud cover and chances for showers through at least Monday. Substantially cooler air is expected behind the front. Should the front arrive on schedule, Saturday night and Sunday morning would bring crisp and drier conditions. The latest model average has lows in the 50s, but accounting for the blurriness of model blends at this range, lows in the mid to upper 40s would be reasonable to expect especially north of I-10, as reflected in the statistical guidance. Highs Sunday and Monday are forecast to be below average for mid-April, with highs in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

MVFR conditions are forecast for the local area sites overnight through about noon Tuesday. MVFR cigs may take a bit longer or through 22Z for KDRT before VFR cigs return. Breezy southeasterly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots are forecast mainly for the afternoon and evening. Have added PROB30 for KDRT for early this evening as storms move from Mexico into the Rio Grande. MVFR cigs come back around 04Z Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 84 69 84 69 / 10 10 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 67 85 67 / 10 10 30 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 67 85 67 / 0 10 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 81 67 79 66 / 10 20 40 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 69 85 68 / 30 40 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 67 82 66 / 0 10 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 86 67 83 65 / 10 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 68 85 67 / 10 10 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 69 85 69 / 0 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 69 85 68 / 0 10 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 86 70 86 69 / 0 10 30 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.