textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the holiday weekend.

- Locally heavy rain in multiple rounds of storms tonight into Monday. Localized flash flooding is likely.

- Active and unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week. Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

There is a broad upper level trough over the southwestern part of the country with southwesterly flow over Texas. The low level airmass remains warm and moist with temperatures mainly in the 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This morning the DRT sounding measured 1.30" of PW. The GOES derived PW image shows up to 1.70" over our Coastal Plains counties. Models show low level flow from the southeast to east through the short term period keeping PW near and above 1.5" from the Coastal Plains to Hill Country. Our Flood Watch remains in effect starting this evening and continuing through Monday afternoon. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely across the eastern half of the CWA. A few spots could receive up to 6". An upper level shortwave trough will move through the pattern tonight bringing low chances for showers and thunderstorms. Most places will not get any rain, but with the high PW air stronger storms could produce up to an inch. Another shortwave will move across the area Saturday and combined with daytime heating will bring a better chance for convection. Coverage will be better during the afternoon. Again rainfall totals will be dependent on thunderstorm strength with strong storms producing locally heavy rain. There is also some chance for a severe storm. Convection will continue into the evening and then move off to the east as the shortwave moves away.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Our unsettled weather pattern will remain in place into the middle of next week. Right now Sunday looks like convection will be diurnally driven with storms in the afternoon and evening and mainly over the eastern half of the area. Our airmass will be about the same and locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. Monday is looking like a mostly dry day with only low chance POPs over our eastern counties. The next significant shortwave will move across Texas Tuesday into Wednesday bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. PW will again be 1.5+" and locally heavy rain will be possible. Showers and thunderstorms will linger over the east on Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Confidence is low in thunderstorm potential at SAT, SSF, and AUS this evening. For now, have opted to keep out of the TAF, but may need to be introduced later is storms trend further east than expected. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings develop after 09Z and continue through midday before lifting to VFR. Winds remain steady out of the ESE at all sites along with an increasing threat for TSRA at terminals after 18Z Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 84 69 84 / 20 60 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 84 69 83 / 20 60 50 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 83 68 84 / 20 60 40 50 Burnet Muni Airport 69 82 67 82 / 20 60 30 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 88 68 90 / 10 40 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 83 68 82 / 20 60 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 70 82 66 84 / 30 60 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 83 68 84 / 20 60 40 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 84 69 82 / 20 80 60 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 83 69 85 / 30 60 40 40 Stinson Muni Airport 72 83 69 84 / 30 60 50 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ171>173-186>194- 204>209-219>225.