textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

-Hot conditions persist into the Holiday Weekend

-Shower and thunderstorm chances return late in the weekend

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The upper level ridge that has been entrenched across the southern US over the past couple of days is forecast to shift northeastwards through Tuesday. The ridge is forecast to become centered over the Ohio River Valley. This will help to keep our daily high temperatures in the 90s as well as keeping the heat index near the century mark.

A retreating dry-line across west Texas will be the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Hi- res models show these storms staying just west of Val Verde County both days. With the shift in the upper ridge, there is a signal for a few streamer showers for portions of the eastern Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor early Tuesday morning in a few hi-res models. Will introduce low-end POPs to address this potential.

Overnight lows both tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s for the majority of the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

The upper ridge is forecast to remain over the Ohio River Valley through Thursday. With southerly flow, this will keep the potential for morning streamer showers possible each morning. On Friday into Saturday the upper ridge breaks down as flow becomes zonal then northwesterly. This will allow a dryline to make more easterly progression and could allow for showers and thunderstorms to reach portions of the service area. Increased southerly flow will also result in afternoon heat index values in to 103-107 range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across South Central Texas through the afternoon and evening under mostly clear skies. Stratus, producing MVFR ceilings, is forecast to develop 06Z-11Z between SAT-AUS and north into the Hill Country, then expand into the Rio Grande 11Z-13Z. The stratus is forecast to mix out to VFR conditions 14Z-16Z. A Saharan dust plume has arrived into the region, with the higher concentrations suspended aloft. Nevertheless, there could be come locations seeing visibilities around 6SM as winds relax later tonight. The S to SE winds will continue to gust between 20-30KT this afternoon and evening, then weaken overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 95 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 94 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.