textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain/storm chances return for the middle to end of the week.

- A cold front will move through late Wednesday, with cooler temperatures expected Thursday.

- Temperatures rebound quickly this weekend along with low rain chances and highs in the 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Moisture continues to pool over South Central Texas this evening ahead of an approaching cold front which is progged to arrive Wednesday afternoon. With moderate instability and a retreating dryline over the western CWA this evening, a few storms could develop over the northern Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau. They would primarily pose a large hail risk IF a storm can form. Otherwise, increasing clouds are expected overnight as ample moisture continues streaming northward.

Overnight into Wednesday morning, wouldn't be surprised to see some drizzle or mist as low clouds and stagnant air sets up ahead of the approaching front. Most locations should still climb into the 80s Wednesday before the front passes through in the late afternoon and evening hours. A dryline will progress eastward during the day Wednesday, but capping is expected to remain rather strong, so the threat for storms is low before the front arrives. A few strong to severe storms with all hazards possible could develop along the front, with the highest severe threat over Williamson, Lee, portions of Fayette, and northern Bastrop. We'll carry a 20-30% chance for storms Wednesday afternoon/evening, generally along and east of the I-35 Corridor, but the risk is highly conditional. Most areas won't see any rain at all Wednesday. Additional showers and storms should develop after midnight Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as cooler air filters into the region. This will likely be more of isentropic type showers and storms but not as widespread as some of our more recent rain events.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Thursday will be the coolest day of the week as cooler air behind the front filters into South Central Texas. Highs should only climb into the 60s and 70s but the cooldown will be short-lived. In any matter, we'll take it, especially since cold fronts of this magnitude are less common in the month of May.

Friday and beyond is when things start to get a bit more interesting as a trough and associated closed low move eastward into northern Mexico and southwest Texas this weekend. An active pattern continue with this setup, with scattered showers and storms expected to develop both Saturday and Sunday. Beyond that, models begin to diverge on the pattern into next week. It looks like things will remain active, but in terms of any specific day having better odds at rain, it's difficult to say at this distance.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Low MVFR level CIGs are forming over I-35 currently and the area of clouds should expand west to DRT by around 09Z. IFR CIGs are about to take shape over Hill Country obs stations, so there's a good chance we'll see that expand into the TAF sites sometime later this morning as wind speeds remain low. A cold front will try to move into the area in the midday to mid-afternoon hours which is always a challenge to get the timing right. Not much is expected in the way of convection along the front at least inside the TAF periods. Will leave a borderline IFR/MVFR CIG to finish out the TAF periods as any falling moisture may keep the CIGs lower.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 86 63 71 62 / 20 10 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 64 72 62 / 20 10 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 65 72 62 / 10 10 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 82 59 68 58 / 40 0 20 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 67 73 64 / 10 20 50 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 61 71 60 / 30 10 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 88 69 75 62 / 10 0 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 64 72 63 / 20 10 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 68 73 63 / 30 10 20 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 67 73 64 / 10 0 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 89 69 74 65 / 10 0 20 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.