textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures into next week.

- Rain and thunderstorm potential Saturday, but rain amounts trending down.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Dry weather returns as upper ridging establishes back over South Central Texas today. Clouds continue to clear this afternoon with northerly wind and highs mainly in the 70s. Wind becomes light overnight with some high clouds streaming over the area and low clouds building over the west closer to Thursday morning. There may be just enough moisture for fog development tonight in our far eastern counties, namely Karnes, DeWitt and Lavaca. Southerly flow returns for Thursday with a slight bump in temperatures expected. Low clouds redevelop Thursday night into Friday with relatively warm February lows in the 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The upper ridge remains over the area Friday but begins to shift east as a trough digs over the southwestern US. Moderate southerly flow continues low level moisture over the area this day with warm temperatures from the upper 70s to mid 80s. This trough continues its progression east towards Texas and will bring our next chances for precipitation Friday night and Saturday.

Showers and storms may develop as early as Friday night in our northwestern counties before rain chances spread across the area overnight into Saturday. Mid-level instability and a strengthening low level just may kick off a few thunderstorms near Val Verde County Friday night which could become strong to severe, though most activity will likely be north and west of our CWA during this time. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the storm track staying mostly north of the area is holding which will limit the potential for any meaningful rainfall. LREF guidance only indicates about a 20- 30 percent chance for a half inch or greater of rain over our northernmost counties with this system. Depending on the timing of the front Saturday, there could still be the potential for a few strong to severe storms, mainly in the eastern half of the area. Any showers or thunderstorms will be moving east of South Central Texas by Saturday night with dry weather returning in the long term as ridging builds back over the area. Only a subtle drop in temperatures is seen for Sunday behind the Pacific front with temperatures again increasing into next week remaining above seasonable levels.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR currently prevails across the region with fair skies. A region of MVFR CIGs is forecast to spread across portions of the area from the south after 06Z, with highest confidence along the Rio Grande from K5T9 to KDRT to KECU after 12Z. The northeastern flank of this cloud mass may reach KSAT/KSSF, but confidence remains low. Have opted to maintain mention of SCT cover at FL025 after 09Z for those terminals in the 00Z TAF. Prevailing winds will rotate from light northerlies to light southerlies regionwide after about 17Z, remaining below 10 kt as VFR conditions return. More widespread low CIGs may arrive Friday morning, and have added a FM group at the end of the KSAT TAF to indicate the possible cloud layers suggested by the latest models.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 52 78 59 80 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 49 75 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 54 78 59 82 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 49 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 51 77 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 49 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 51 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 53 77 59 80 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 54 78 60 81 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.