textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low threat for isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall mainly south of the U.S. Highway 90 corridor this evening into early Saturday morning.

- A cold front and northwest flow aloft brings a chance for widespread precipitation Sunday night into early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and upper air data show a mid and upper level low over north central Mexico with southwest flow aloft downstream of this low across southern Texas. Taking a look at the visible satellite imagery from earlier this morning showed low clouds entrenched across south central Texas, with clouds also extending farther west into the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande. We have seen some thinning and breaks in the clouds near and west of the Rio Grande and should this trend continue, destabilization will begin to occur. We will continue to monitor for signs of convection developing over the higher terrain of Mexico, with convection then expected to move east with time. At this point, it appears the concern for an isolated strong to severe storm or two would be during the evening and overnight hours for areas south of Highway 90, with the Rio Grande plains likely being the favored location. While some of the hi-res models have backed off on the signals for convection, suspect there is still a low-end chance some activity develops late evening as lift associated with the upper low moves in from the west. While hail and winds will be the main severe weather concern, there is some potential for locally heavy rainfall for the mentioned areas.

The chance for convection on Saturday remains unclear at this time. Suspect the clouds may linger into the afternoon hours and this would limit instability. With moisture levels higher into the coastal plains, this area would be slightly favored for convection during the peak heating hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

We should see a little more in the way of clearing of the clouds on Sunday and this will help boost daytime highs into the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Attention will then turn to a cold front set to move across our region during the evening hours. We still expect to see fairly widespread precipitation chances as the front and unstable northwest flow aloft remain over the region. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along and just behind the front as additional shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow aloft persist. Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main severe weather concerns.

Northwest flow aloft persists into Monday as high temperatures ease back into the 80s. While we are showing a dry forecast at this time, northwest flow aloft bears watching and we may need to add some low end rain chances during peak heating.

Dry weather along with a warming trend look to return for the area during the middle to latter portion of next week. Highs should generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s along with overnight lows in the mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Skies will remain mostly cloudy to overcast through this afternoon into tonight with a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions. There is not enough confidence for any rain or storms to be introduced into the TAFs but an occasional shower with no category impacts could be possible at times. Any storms from this evening through the overnight should remain concentrated across the Rio Grande Plains and into South Texas. Ceilings overnight will again lower into the MVFR to IFR range with some visibility restrictions possible as well. Gradual improvement to VFR conditions should return from Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon. Winds are to remain light with speeds around 8 kt or less with variable wind directions occurring at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 88 70 91 / 10 10 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 87 70 91 / 20 20 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 87 68 91 / 20 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 66 86 68 90 / 10 10 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 87 69 94 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 86 69 90 / 10 10 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 69 86 68 91 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 87 69 91 / 20 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 85 70 89 / 30 40 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 87 70 91 / 20 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 71 87 70 92 / 20 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.