textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry this weekend, then stormy with heavy rainfall possible for much of next week.

- Increasing humidity and heat indices through Tuesday, with some spots feeling like 100-105+ Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Regional satellite imagery shows large scale southwesterly flow aloft, which is responsible for our mid to upper level clouds early this afternoon. A long wave trough that will eventually eject out over the central CONUS is just now moving inland over the Pacific NW and will impact our sensible weather for the entirety of this forecast. At the surface, a low is situated over the Texas Panhandle that will remain mostly stationary through the short term period. A trailing dryline was noted per SPC mesoanalysis from Perryton to Childress to southwest through Big Spring and further south just east of Fort Stockton. This dryline will be the primary driver of convection the next couple days. Most of south central Texas will remain dry, but portions of Val Verde and Edwards County may see a shower or isolated storm this evening and again Saturday evening. Humidity continues to increase as southeasterly surface flow pumps Gulf moisture northward into central Texas. SPC has a small sliver of Val Verde in a Marginal risk this afternoon/evening for severe storms, but the bulk of storm activity should remain west of our CWA. With regard to temperatures, opted to blend in some bias corrected MOS to account for NBM Max and Min T's that were near the higher end of guidance. This will nudge temps down a couple degrees to account for the slight cooling effects of high level cirrus and mid-level cloud cover today and tomorrow. Overall, it will still be warm, with highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s along with mornings in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An active weather pattern begins Sunday and continues through the remainder of the long term forecast period. An upper level trough will remain situated over the central Rockies and eject a series of disturbances out over the Plains states. Meanwhile, southwesterly flow aloft won't be going anywhere anytime soon, with several upstream shortwaves expected to move through south central Texas. A cold front will slide south on Monday, but will take some time to reach our area as it somewhat stalls out over central Texas. This, in combination with ample PWATs and surface moisture, will result in several rounds of heavy rainfall, with the potential for a few strong to severe storms as well, particularly Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening. WPC currently has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for flooding rain over south central Texas Monday and Tuesday. Upgrades to these outlooks are possible, but forecast confidence will need to increase on the location and timing of heavier rainfall.

One other thing to note: heat indices will climb into the triple digits Monday and Tuesday before the front arrives Wednesday. With muggy mornings in the upper 70s and afternoons in the upper 80s to upper 90s Monday/Tuesday, it will feel hotter as humidity rapidly increases ahead of the approaching cold front. Cooler temperatures arrive behind the front with highs in the lower to middle 80s by Thursday and Friday as move into Memorial Day weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions through this evening before MVFR CIGs develop as low clouds overspread the area overnight and last through mid morning for all I-35 TAF sites. VFR CIGs should return in the afternoon along with breezy southerly winds of 12-15 knots with gusts approaching 25 knots at times. For KDRT similar conditions are expected however should see MVFR CIGs develop a bit closer to sunrise and last through mid morning before VFR CIGs resume. Winds should also become breezy (12-15 knots) out of the east southeast along with gusts up to 25 knots possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 90 75 90 / 0 0 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 91 76 91 / 0 0 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 91 74 90 / 0 0 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 69 87 72 87 / 0 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 91 75 96 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 89 74 89 / 0 0 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 69 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 91 75 91 / 0 0 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 91 76 92 / 0 0 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 91 75 91 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 71 92 75 92 / 0 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.