textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Periods of locally heavy rainfall and the compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms the past couple of days is likely to result in a continued flash flood threat through at least Friday morning, particularly over the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande Plains.

- Up to considerable flash flood impacts remain ongoing at least through the end of this latest round of rainfall

- Up to Moderate to major flooding are ongoing/forecast for the Pedernales, Frio, Medina, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces River Basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Latest multi-radar multi-sensor presentation shows light to moderate rain with isolated to scattered pockets of heavy rain mainly associated with thunderstorms. This trend is forecast to continue tonight with an uptick overnight through Friday morning. The low level jet is increasing with precipitable water coming in at 1.99 inches from the 00Z (Friday) Del Rio sounding and the SPC mesoanalysis as of 03Z Friday, shows precipitable water values ranging from 2 to 2.2 inches over parts of the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and western Hill Country. The Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) responsible of multiple rounds of heavy rain in combination with tropical moisture for the past several days is now over the Pecos area. The MCV is forecast to push to the north for the next 24 hours and favoring heavy rain rates especially across the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and the Rio Grande Plains through at least Friday morning and where a Level 4 of 4 risk of Excessive Rainfall exists. On top of that, the atmosphere supports spin up tornadoes as the 03Z VAD Wind Profile of the DRT radar shows surface to 1 KM value of 243 m2/s2. All of this to say that the night into the Friday morning period looks to be another active one with heavy rain leading to flash flooding and continuing with river flooding. Models are indicating new rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches possible over a larger area with isolated pockets up to 8 inches possible. This continues a situation with up to ongoing considerable impacts from flash flooding and moderate to major river flooding. For those areas that have received 10+ inches of rainfall within the past 2 days, additional 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to trigger flash flooding since the soil is saturated and runoff ends up in creeks, rivers, and arroyos. Flood Watch remains in effect from a Llano to Castroville to Pearsall and points west through noon Friday.

So for the next 12 hours or so, here are safety messaging lines we will like to pass along:

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if needed.

When this is going to be over? The weather conditions are forecast to improve midday on Friday across most of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande while areas along and east of Highway 281 stay dry. There is a low end chance for showers and storms to affect Val Verde County in the afternoon with dry conditions elsewhere. However, flooding and river flooding are likely to be ongoing for several river basins and we urge residents and visitors to be weather aware and following local officials for latest information on street closures, river impacts, and other weather related situations.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Dry weather conditions continue into the weekend for the most part with isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity forecast to affect portions of Val Verde County on Saturday afternoon as a mid level trough sits over that area. By Sunday, an upper level high takes control across South Central Texas with mostly sunny skies across the region and high temperatures back into the 90s for most locations and upper 80s across the southern Edwards Plateau. The work week looks dry as an upper level ridge remains in control with clouds developing in the evening through the overnight periods and dissipating mid to late mornings for partly cloudy to mostly sunny days and highs in the mid 90s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VCSH the rest of the night for most terminals except for KDRT which will see some lingering VCTS the rest of tonight. MVFR ceilings expected through daybreak before lifting to VFR during the afternoon and evening. Winds will be out of the SE around 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Another round of lower ceilings is expected after 06Z Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 91 76 92 75 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 76 92 75 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 74 91 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 75 90 75 / 30 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 75 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 74 90 73 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 75 92 74 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 76 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 76 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 91 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until noon CDT today for TXZ171-183>190-202>204- 217>219-228.