textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Last day today of unseasonably warm and humid weather.

- A strong cold front arrives this evening, bringing gusty winds and much colder temperatures by Monday morning.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect from this evening through Monday morning.

- Freezing temperatures possible Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a warming trend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1217 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Our last day of warm and humid conditions has arrived. Any areas of patchy fog will again erode mid-morning with low clouds breaking up more towards midday or early afternoon. Unseasonably warm highs are still forecast from the upper 70s to low 80s. We should stay a few degrees shy of records highs today as the daily records are a bit higher than previous days.

Attention then turns to the well advertised strong polar cold front which hi-res guidance depicts moving into southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as early as 6-7 PM CST. This quick moving front should move across all of South Central Texas in about 6 or 7 hours with gusty wind and drier and colder air felt almost immediately after its passage. A relatively thin line of showers could develop along the boundary as it moves through tonight, but rain amounts will likely not add up to more than a few hundredths of an inch for those that see precipitation. These rain chances are primarily focused along and east of I-35.

Pre-frontal light wind will increase almost immediately after the frontal passage becoming sustained from the north around 15-25 mph. Strong wind will continue through the overnight hours into Monday morning with hi-res guidance in good agreement that gusts will generally be from 35-45 mph during this time, but some locations could see gusts exceeding 50 mph after midnight. A Wind Advisory has been issued from Sunday evening through noon Monday for the entire area, though locations in the southern portion of the CWA may not see gusty wind until closer to midnight. Secure loose objects and decorations during the day today.

Back to temperatures, rapidly falling temperatures overnight will bring lows into the mid 30s north to right around 50 degrees south. With strong wind in place Monday morning, wind chills will dip as low as the mid to upper 20s for the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and into the 30s for most other areas. Winds begin to gradually decrease Monday afternoon and evening. Post frontal stratus and cold air advection will keep highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. A few hi-res model guidance is now indicating low chances for some light showers Monday with moist air remaining above 850mb, but with dry air at the low levels any precipitation would be light. With low confidence have kept the mention of precipitation out of the forecast during the day Monday. With the drier air and gusty wind Monday, near critical fire weather conditions may occur sometime late morning into the afternoon when the breezy wind and low humidity overlap.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1217 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

The cold post-frontal airmass sticks around through mid-week. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday morning are forecast to be in the 30s to low 40s across South-Central Texas, with light morning freezes possible mainly north of I-10. The evening of New Year's Eve, temperatures look to be in the 40s with light wind with a mild start to the year New Year's Day with highs in the 60s to low 70s. A warming trend is then forecast heading into next weekend. No rain chances are in the forecast next week, though it's worth mentioning that a few shortwaves look to pass over the area during this time which may bring back some low rain chances to the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Southerly winds have been a bit stronger this evening than the past few days. MVFR ceilings are developing along I-35. AUS and SAT have ceilings, but SSF does not. We expect the ceiling to form at SSF within the next hour. The San Antonio airports will drop to IFR later tonight. Low clouds will spread to DRT by around 05Z and conditions there will likely drop to LIFR by mid-morning. All terminals will rebound to VFR by early afternoon. A strong cold front will move into the region late this afternoon or early evening. This will bring strong, gusty northerly winds starting around 02Z at AUS, 03Z San Antonio, and 04Z DRT. The strong winds will continue through the end of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 42 51 38 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 42 51 37 / 0 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 43 51 38 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 77 38 46 35 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 47 54 42 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 79 39 49 35 / 0 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 77 44 53 39 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 80 42 52 38 / 0 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 43 52 36 / 0 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 44 51 41 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 80 47 53 42 / 0 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.