textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- A few strong thunderstorms are possible along and east of I-35 through the morning into the early afternoon hours.

- Cooler air surges from the north today and brings below normal temperatures into midweek.

- Seasonably mild weather and low daily rain chances return late in the week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Our weekend weather disturbance (an amplifying trough swinging southeastward from the Texas panhandle) is making its final approach. The track of this system is aligned with a broad stationary baroclinic zone draped across Central Texas. This is supporting good isentropic lift from the Gulf along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains, and we should expect to see isolated to scattered moderate showers continuing over these areas through Sunday morning. A more coherent band of stronger storms, well depicted in the latest REFS, is taking shape closer to the San Angelo area tonight as convergence intensifies ahead of a developing surface low accompanying the trough. This line of storms is forecast to reach the Hill Country around 5-7 AM this morning, then progress across the I-35 corridor mid to late morning before reaching the Coastal Plains late morning to early afternoon. Simultaneously, upper level forcing will encourage the development of a secondary low over coastal East Texas, and this will force a wedge of colder air southward across Central Texas. This positions higher instability over the Coastal Plains, which favors intensification of storms over the Coastal Plains.

The cool environment tends to be a limiting factor on rain rates, but ample moisture aloft should allow a few cells to drop pockets heavier totals through Sunday approaching 3 inches, most likely in the Coastal Plains. Thus, the WPC has a Level 1 of 4 (Marginal) risk of excessive rain capable of producing localized flooding highlighted for the Coastal Plains. Broad regional totals across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains will tend to be closer to 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Isentropic lift may allow a few showers to extend as far west as the Rio Grande Plains, but they may miss out on the heavier activity with the best forcing being farther northeast. Overall likelihood of severe weather is generally minimal outside of the Coastal Plains due to the cooler airmass, though gusty winds will be possible. Over the Coastal Plains, SBCAPE values of 500-1000 J/lg, robust deep layer shear, and potential nearby cyclogenesis support a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather associated with the band of storms as it passes through around noon.

The push of cold air southward along the I-35 corridor Sunday morning and afternoon may allow for generally light showers to continue behind the main line. While the more showery rains should come to an end Sunday afternoon as forcing leaves the area, northerly winds will allow the cooler airmass to spread across much of the region by Sunday evening, bringing stratus clouds and a cold and dreary mistiness for many, most prominently in the Hill Country and Austin metro. Temperatures won't rise much beyond the 50s for the areas under the most persistent clouds and misty weather. Areas along the Rio Grande are forecast to stay away from the initial surge of cool air during the afternoon and should get into the 70s under sunnier skies, but eventually the clouds will spread there as well. The overcast will keep lows Sunday night and Monday morning across South-Central Texas from falling very far (mid 40s to mid 50s forecast), but with a steady north breeze apparent temperatures may fall into the low 40s or even upper 30s for some north of I-10. Cold air advection continuing into Monday is forecast to keep much of South-Central Texas socked in under the overcast, with highs mostly in the 50s. A few locations in the Hill Country may struggle to warm above the 40s on Monday, making for a chilly and cloudy November day.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

While models generally show some reduction in cloud cover heading through the week, clearing may be slow given the cold surface airmass and continued persistence of low level moisture. Daytime temperatures will be closely dependent on the amount of cloud cover, but there is broad consensus that there should be a warmup of afternoon highs into at least the mid 60s for most by Wednesday. Lows in this timeframe should continue to hold in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Ridging over the area will keep the weather steady during the early part of the workweek, but the upper air pattern over the western US reverts back to more troughing over the course of the week. This brings a return of southerly winds over our region, producing milder nights and warmer days as the cold and damp airmass is pushed away and replaced by a warmer Gulf one. A few showers are possible in this pattern, but a lack of a stronger disturbance nearby and split flow at 250mb keeps rain chances on the lower side Thursday and Friday. Another amplified trough is depicted in the medium range guidance over the Intermountain West at the end of the week. This could provide a better established opportunity for rain if it drops farther south, but for the time being there is not much consistency in the signal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The majority of locations are experiencing MVFR to IFR for the start of the period, with ceilings expected to expand and lower into Sunday morning. LIFR conditions are expected at times most favored over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor through this morning. Rain showers will become more intermittent overnight at I- 35 terminals before a line of showers and thunderstorms associated with a front move across the area early to mid-morning. Rain tapers off behind the front during the afternoon, though ceilings will remain low (MVFR to IFR) from the Hill Country eastward before they expand further west again heading into Monday morning. Easterly winds shift to northerly behind the front with gradual uptick in wind speeds tonight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 55 48 52 48 / 90 20 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 55 47 53 47 / 90 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 49 52 48 / 90 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 53 46 49 46 / 90 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 54 58 52 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 53 46 50 46 / 90 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 69 50 57 49 / 70 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 57 47 53 47 / 90 20 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 49 54 48 / 100 20 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 61 50 53 49 / 90 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 62 52 54 51 / 80 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.