textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freeze forecast this morning across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains.

- Near critical fire weather conditions today for portions of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor today.

- A warming trend throughout this week brings temperatures near or above daily record highs Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Tuesday morning is on track to be our most chilly since February for many locations in South-Central Texas under clearing skies and light winds... a different flavor of cold compared to Sunday night's windiness. A light freeze is expected for generally rural and low- lying areas mainly in the northern half of the CWA. A few low-lying spots may briefly dip below 28F. Surface high pressure will be shifting east today, so southerly flow should return after sunrise and kickstart a warming trend. Highs this afternoon are forecast to reach the 60s for most of South-Central Texas, with a few in the low 70s in the Rio Grande Plains. Winds will be breezy as the pressure gradient associated with the western flanks of the outgoing high pressure moves across the area. This combined with dry air persisting over the region is forecast to produce near- critical fire weather conditions along and west of the I-35 corridor.

The southerly flow will be in place long enough to usher the gradual return of moist Gulf air Tuesday night, resulting in a cool but not quite as cold night with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. Winds aloft between 700-850mb become more westerly on Wednesday, which allows warmer plateau air to spread into our area. Highs Wednesday will be back in the mid 70s to low 80s under fair skies.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A robust ridge of high pressure is taking along the Pacific coast of CONUS. With a highly amplified upper-level pattern continuing CONUS, we will be steadily swapping out our unseasonably cold weather to start the week with unseasonably warm weather to end the week. A warming trend and dry weather will continue as this strong ridge gradually moves east towards our area. The core of this ridge will still be to our west this weekend, but enough of the warm air associated with it will be spanning across South-Central Texas to push daytime highs into the 90s starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. This would bring us back to near record territory for daily highs.

Deterministic and ensemble mean outputs indicate that a weak cold front may approach our area early next week, but the continued presence of the nearby ridge does not favor significant cooling or rain chances at this time. Rain chances through this week remain

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Only sct high clouds expected through the TAF periods. Wind direction changes make up the reasons for extra TAF lines as L/V winds transition to the diurnal fluctions of the S/SE winds by 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026 Southerly flow will expand across South-Central Texas Tuesday. However, dry air persists with relative humidity values of 10-20 percent across the region during the daytime following slightly improved but still poor overnight moisture recovery. Breezy southerly winds will be strongest along and west of the I-35 corridor where 20 ft sustained winds of 10-20 mph are forecast this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for those areas from 10 AM through 8 PM Tuesday night for these near- critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 67 46 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 43 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 42 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 66 44 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 47 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 45 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 41 80 49 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 42 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 42 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 45 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 45 79 52 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.