textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains through much of the week.

- Humid conditions and above average temperatures will result in heat indices above 100.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb high over OK and a large amplitude ridge stretching from there to the Great Lakes. The flow over TX was from the east on the south side of the high. A weak disturbance in this easterly flow is generating isolated showers and thunderstorms from the TX coast to the Hill Country. Storm coverage over our CWA is isolated at this time. This disturbance has been weakening over the last couple of days and convection will be dying off by late afternoon. This evening, any last convection should be coming to an end leaving the area dry overnight. Tuesday afternoon there will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along a seabreeze over the Coastal Plains. Temperatures will be above normal through the short term. Highs Tuesday will be about the same as today.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The strong upper ridge will continue to collapse toward the east over the northern part of the country, but continue to control the weather over the southern states. Southeasterly low level flow will keep hot, moist air over South-Central Texas. There may be some seabreeze convection each day for the rest of the week over the Coastal Plains, but chances are low. Most of the area will be hot and dry. Temperatures will be steady and above normal through the week. The NBM is showing higher humidity for the middle and latter part of the week, but it has tended to run moist in the medium term. The forecast higher dewpoints have not been verifying. However, if the higher dewpoints do verify we will reach Heat Advisory criteria over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor by mid-week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR skies are forecast through the period, but there is a low chance that SAT will see a brief CIG at around 2500 ft at daybreak. Winds are lighter than usual, so will leave out low CIGs for now. There is a about a 5-15 percent chance of convection in the region, but mainly the Hill Country and Coastal Prairies and well away from area TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 78 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 97 74 96 / 0 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 99 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 99 76 98 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 99 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 78 101 78 99 / 0 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.