textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue through the next seven days.

- Late night/morning fog for most areas through the weekend. Some locally dense fog is possible Saturday morning in the coastal plains.

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40%) for rain and storms mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Weak high pressure is currently over the region along with early afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The surface high pressure gradually slides east of the region overnight allowing for a return of Gulf moisture. With light winds and moisture return, we expect to see a return of patchy to areas of fog develop tonight into Saturday morning. With the lighter winds and increased moisture residing over the coastal plains, some dense fog development may occur towards sunrise Saturday. SREF probabilities for dense fog are favored over Lavaca, DeWitt and Karnes counties. A warm and breezy weekend is in store across south central Texas as a surface low develops over the Panhandle region with high pressure to our east. Expect gusty south winds, especially during the late morning through afternoon hours along with highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

A very gradual change will take place in the large scale pattern next week as persistent high pressure in the mid and upper levels over northern Mexico and the desert southwest is weakened as a broad trough of low pressure develops over the Intermountain West. While previous model runs of the GFS had indicated the possibility of a cold front moving into the region Monday, the latest run aligns closer to the ECMWF in keeping the front to our north. We will keep temperatures above normal through mid-week along with dry weather. Expect breezy south winds to persist, especially during the late morning and afternoon hours.

We will start to see a gradual return of rain chances mid to late week as southwest flow aloft increases ahead of a broad upper trough to our west. Timing of rain chances will be problematic as there is still uncertainty as to how far south the trough axis develops. For now, we will keep rain chances limited to the 20-40% range and adjust the forecast as models hopefully begin to show some better consistency with the large-scale pattern. Of greater certainty is for the above normal temperatures to continue well into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Late tonight through mid Saturday morning, low clouds are forecast to develop across the Coastal Plains and spreads to the north and northwest. Patchy to areas of fog are also anticipated over some of these locations including the Austin and San Antonio airports. Confidence is low as far as MVFR or lower cigs/vbsys making it to the I-35 corridor terminals. However, confidence is medium or greater for low clouds and reduced visibilities of 1 mile or less across the Coastal Plains and areas to the southwest of San Antonio (southern part of the Rio Grande). Light east to southeast winds are forecast for the rest of today through the overnight period. A light southeast flow is forecast to prevail across South Central Texas on Saturday for the most part with occasionally gusts up to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Southeast winds will be occasionally gusty along the Rio Grande this afternoon. However, with dewpoint temperatures on the increase, minimum humidity levels should stay around 35% today over the mentioned area. Gusty south winds will occur across most of the region through this weekend and into next week, with gusty conditions favored during the late morning through afternoon hours. The exception could be over the higher terrain of the Hill Country where better mixing could allow for some gusts during the overnight hours as well. Dry weather continues through early next week, with some low rain chances returning to most areas mid to late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 56 86 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 52 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 55 84 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 53 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 54 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 53 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 58 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 58 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.