textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Low to medium chances for isolated showers and storms continues for today.

- Unseasonable hot conditions continue with some reprieve in the humidity levels by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Currently a weak stationary frontal boundary is located just north of our area stretching from just north of Waco westward to north of Fort Stockton TX. We could see this front sag further southward through the day today before eventually just washing out. At the same time a mid level ridge is trying to strengthen overtop of Central TX however its still fairly weak so we could see another round of isolated showers and storms erupt near this boundary. More activity is possible across the Hill Country into the I-35 Corridor this afternoon into this evening much like what we saw with yesterdays activity. We shouldn't see much in the way of severe weather once again as shear remains very low. DCAPE values could get above 1000 J/kg which would continue to support strong gusty winds in any of the stronger storms that develop. By Wednesday chances for showers and storms should be lower as the ridge begins to suppress instability across the area.

Regarding temperatures we should see another unseasonably hot day for south central TX with almost everyone getting into the mid to upper 90s with perhaps a few triple digit readings which remains well above normal for this time of year. It will however remain very humid with PWATS currently in the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range which is well above normal for this time of year. When adding in the humidity with the heat we will expect to see another day of heat indices in the 101 to 107 degree range which should keep us just shy of heat advisory criteria. Wednesday we should see very similar highs with just a tad bit less humidity as the ridge of high pressure starts to strengthen. Similarly heat indices should also be slightly lower and more in the 100-105 degree range. Nights however will continue to remain very warm for this time of year, in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Global models and ensemble guidance suggest that the mid level ridge continues to strengthen during the long term thus reducing our chances for rain and storms. It eventually pushes off to the east across the TX/LA border by the end of the week before meandering back west southwestward over our area over the weekend. The result is most areas should remain dry with just very spotty isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Plains and again across the Rio Grande as they remain on the periphery of the ridge. The good news is that with the ridge being close by it should drop our humidity values beginning Thursday as onshore flow from the Gulf will be reduced. While it will remain unseasonably hot across the area, heat indices will only likely be 1 to 3 degrees above the actual air temperatures giving us some reprieve from the oppressive heat and humidity we have experienced for most of this month. Unfortunately rain chances continue to look abysmal for most of the area as long as the ridge remains parked nearby. There is some hope in the long term as long range models are starting to indicate a pattern shift thus favoring our area for a more active weather pattern as we end September and head into October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Mainly isolated convection is expected this afternoon across a good portion of south central Texas. With mainly isolated coverage of showers and storms expected, we will not mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, low cloud development looks to occur a little later, with less coverage compared to what was observed today. We did opt to include a brief TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at KSAT, KSSF and KDRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 99 76 99 / 30 20 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 99 76 99 / 30 10 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 74 97 / 20 10 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 94 73 94 / 30 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 97 75 97 / 30 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 74 95 / 30 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 99 74 98 / 20 10 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 99 76 99 / 20 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 77 95 / 30 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 97 76 96 / 30 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.