textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) persist this weekend before ending into and through the upcoming workweek.

- Cool and mostly cloudy this weekend before temperatures modify through the workweek with more sunshine.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

South central Texas will endure two more days of on/off rain chances before drier, less muggy, and pleasant days return Monday and beyond. Aloft, a mid-level shear axis remains situated over the western half of the region and in combination with PWATs up between 1.8 and 2.0 will result in continued locally heavy rain rates with any showers or storms that form today or tomorrow. The latest hi-res CAMs have been onto additional showers and storms concentrating over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains early this morning and continuing through midday before additional isolated to scattered showers develop throughout the entire CWA. Showers and storms will mostly be driven by daytime heating, but widespread cloud cover will limit how warm we will get. On Sunday, rain chances start to slip south of our region, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in the morning hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

By Monday, northerly flow from the sfc to 700mb will be the norm, meaning PWATs should drop quickly as drier air filters into the region along with increased sunshine through mid to late week. Temperatures will be comfortable and near average for early October with most sites in the lower to middle 80s. By late week, medium range models start to differ on the evolution of a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf associated with the the Central American Gyre. How this pattern evolves and whether an active pattern follows is yet to be seen.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Scattered showers continue west of the I-35 terminals this morning and may impact KDRT over the next couple of hours then possibly I-35 terminals later in the period. Ceilings are still expected to drop over the majority of South Central Texas to MVFR or IFR levels but have been slightly delayed. MVFR ceilings persist at KAUS through the day while other terminals briefly return to VFR before low ceilings redevelop tonight into Sunday morning. Northerly wind prevails through the period becoming gusty in the eastern half of the forecast area on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 70 83 70 / 50 20 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 70 83 70 / 50 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 70 83 70 / 40 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 68 80 67 / 60 20 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 68 85 68 / 50 30 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 79 69 81 69 / 60 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 82 69 84 69 / 50 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 69 83 69 / 40 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 71 84 71 / 40 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 71 83 71 / 40 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 83 72 84 72 / 30 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.