textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms east Wednesday.

- Locally heavy rain possible Thursday and Friday mainly west of San Antonio.

- Mild to warm conditions continue through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows southwesterly flow over TX with a ridge to the east and trough to the west. The low level flow is from the east across our CWA. There are isolated showers across the area in the diffluent flow aloft. Some showers will continue this afternoon, but die off quickly with the loss of daytime heating. We will be dry overnight. Low temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of Tuesday's. Another mid to upper level trough will dig down along the west coast and keep the flow over Texas southwesterly Wednesday. The low level flow will continue to be southeasterly. PW values will increase from the southeast to northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night. Daytime heating should provide enough lift to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Wednesday late morning and afternoon from the Coastal Plains to the eastern Hill Country. Wednesday night an upper shortwave trough will move through the southwesterly flow bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms starting after midnight along the Rio Grande. Rain chances will spread eastward through the night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

The upper shortwave trough will continue to interact with the moist airmass making showers and thunderstorms likely Thursday into early Friday. Models show PW 1.75-2.00 inches over the western half of our CWA which could lead to locally heavy rain. WPC has this area in the slight (Level 2 of 4) risk for rainfall to exceed flash flood guidance Thursday. The NBM is showing rainfall totals of 1-2 inches with isolated amounts up to 4 inches. The highest totals will be over Val Verde County with a sharp drop off starting around Uvalde. Most of the CWA is below 0.5 inch. Friday evening the upper shortwave will move away to the northeast, there still may be enough lift for isolated showers Friday night and Saturday. Dry weather will return for Saturday night and Sunday. Monday night and Tuesday a cold front will move through the region bringing another chance for rain. At this time, models are moving this boundary quickly with only moderate amounts of rain, but PW values are high enough that there could be some locally heavy rain.

With cloudy skies and rain, temperatures will be cooler Thursday and Friday with highs mostly in the 70s. The weekend should be warmer with less cloudiness and mainly dry weather. The cold front Tuesday will bring a cooler airmass for the end of this period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Showers near and east of I-35 are noted early this afternoon. Based on radar trends, we will mention VCSH for the I-35 sites for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the I-35 sites through the evening hours. We do expect to see a much better opportunity for low cloud development late this evening through most of Wednesday morning. We have opted to speed up the onset of low clouds for the I-35 sites and will monitor model trends for possible earlier onset, especially at KSAT and KSSF. We also opted to add some TEMPO IFR conditions for the I-35 sites given good model agreement and plenty of low-level moisture return. Out west at DRT, some MVFR cigs will hang on through early afternoon, then trend back to VFR around 20Z. MVFR clouds return here around 07Z, with IFR developing around 11Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 86 66 82 / 0 30 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 86 65 82 / 0 30 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 85 65 82 / 0 20 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 62 82 65 78 / 0 20 10 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 84 67 76 / 10 10 30 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 84 65 81 / 0 30 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 63 84 66 79 / 10 10 20 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 86 65 83 / 0 30 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 86 64 84 / 0 40 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 84 67 79 / 0 20 10 60 Stinson Muni Airport 65 85 68 80 / 0 10 10 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.