textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Drier, with summer-like temperatures through the weekend.

- A Pacific cold front may bring widespread rain next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Our stagnant weather pattern remains in place tonight. Upper air analysis this evening showed a 500mb high centered over southeast TX and a large amplitude ridge stretching from there to the northern plains. The flow over TX was anticyclonic, but a little stronger than the last couple of days. At the surface the weak frontal boundary that has been in the region pushed back to the west and is across our eastern counties. This boundary is really not having any affect on the weather. The low level flow across our CWA is from the southeast keeping a warm (hot), moist airmass in place. The upper high will remain in place through the short term period. Today and Saturday, it looks like the upper high will suppress any convection keeping the entire area dry. Temperatures through the period will be about the same as the last few days.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The upper high will slowly shift to the south and west Sunday and Monday and will have shifted far enough that isolated showers and thunderstorms will return during the afternoon and early evening both days. The airmass over South-Central Texas will remain about the same with low level flow from the east to southeast. Temperatures will be stagnant through the beginning of next week. It will continue to feel like an endless summer rather than the start of fall. Tuesday models are showing the first real Pacific cold front of the season moving into TX. This will bring chances for widespread rain starting Tuesday. Models are not consistent on when the front will move through and are extending rain chances into Thursday. Northerly to northeasterly winds will bring cooler, drier air. Model forecast has trended a little warmer tonight, but temperatures may get down to at least near normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Some light echoes are moving up the Rio Grande and near DRT, but are not expected to bring any real impact other than providing a brief sprinkle the next couple hours. Fewer 6000-1000 ft ceilings are expected over DRT as we get closer to daybreak, and that could allow for another round of MVFR CIGs that carry over into late morning. The onshore winds in the low levels upstream of SAT/SSF are shallower and have some continental wind direction components feeding from the east. This makes their chances for a repeat of early morning low clouds reduced, and the inherited tempo groups around daybreak look appropriate. Farther N/E, AUS will probably see even less low level moisture and lighter surface winds, so only a few low clouds are expected if any. Mixing to VFR should catch all areas by around 16Z. Plenty of high clouds and some mid level clouds will have been connected to the Pacific tropics where Polo is churning away, but this connection should weaken as the ridge nudges west during the day Friday. With the low level onshore flow increasing in the later periods, the overnight CIGs for Saturday morning will probably increase slightly over what is expected this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 98 72 97 73 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 72 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 94 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 98 71 96 71 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 98 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.