textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 112 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Hot and dry weather is expected through the rest of the week.

- A Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is expected every day into early August.

- Weak frontal boundary brings chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Hot, but seasonal, temperatures and dry conditions continue under strong high pressure across South Central Texas through the remainder of July. Heat Indices are expected to range from 95-107 across the region once again today and Friday, falling just shy of any Heat Advisory criteria. There remains a Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk each afternoon, with muggy nights in the mid to upper 70s expected to provide little relief. Remember to stay hydrated and practice heat safety if outdoors to prevent heat-related illness.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The dominant ridge of high pressure pivots westward by the weekend, allowing a weak frontal boundary to sneak south Saturday into Sunday with a brief northerly wind shift and low to medium (20-35 percent) chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible. At this time, most QPF forecasts keep isolated amounts below one-tenth to one- quarter of an inch. The GFS and ECMWF briefly pop PWAT values above 2 inches as the boundary swings south, above the 90th percentile for early August, but vary wildly on location and at least do not stall the moisture. NBM probabilities remain low (below 15 percent) for any rainfall greater than one-half inch, mainly near Del Rio and Eagle Pass. With little confidence in either solution at this time, will stick to current POPs and QPF and continue to monitor trends into the end of the week.

Otherwise, expect seasonal heat to carry into the first week of August, potentially down a couple of degrees from the end of this week but still likely popping triple-digit Heat Indices. A Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk persists into mid-week, so heat safety messaging continues to be the primary concern.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all local terminals for most of this cycle. However, MVFR cigs are forecast to develop along the I-35 airports by day-break for a few hours. VFR conditions resume and remain for the rest of the day into the evening hours. Southerly winds of 5 to 10 knots are forecast to prevail for most times with wind gusts ranging from 18 to 22 knots especially in the afternoon and early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 97 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 99 74 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 100 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.