textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures for most today and Saturday, then trending cooler early next week. Well above normal temperatures return by the middle of next week. - Near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions for most of South Central Texas Saturday and along and east of I-35 on Sunday. Otherwise, locally elevated fire weather conditions Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains each afternoon through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The dryline retrogrades early this morning while at the same time surface high pressure moves into northern Texas. Increasing low clouds will build over much of the area tonight with fog favored over the coastal plains, the I-35 corridor south of Austin and portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Some drizzle or sprinkles can't be ruled out over the coastal plains this morning but kept PoPs mainly below 15 percent given the lack of forcing. Surface high pressure expands and brings a backdoor front into our northeastern areas later this morning keeping drier air and cooler temperatures over portions of the I-35 corridor, Hill Country and coastal plains near and north of Austin. Temperatures are tricky for these locations with the HREF indicating a high variability in model guidance, though it does look like cloud cover will remain over the area into the afternoon which also supports the lower temperatures in the 60s. Will also have to watch exactly how far south this backdoor boundary spreads as temperatures could be cooler for outside of the locations mentioned above. Elsewhere, highs will generally be in the 70s up to the mid 80s along the Rio Grande.

A Pacific cold front will move across the area late Friday night into early Saturday bringing much drier air and gusty northerly wind behind it. Given these conditions Saturday, near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions are expected for the whole region. Warm temperatures build back over the area by Saturday afternoon with the cooler temperatures lagging until Saturday night. Expect highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Gusty northerly wind will continue Saturday night but will decrease first along the Rio Grande and taper off slightly from the Hill Country and areas west after midnight. Over the I-35 corridor and coastal plains, gusty conditions continue into the mid afternoon Sunday before surface high pressure builds further over the area bringing lighter wind Sunday night into Monday. Jumping to temperatures for this weekend, we'll finally see the effects of the the Pacific front passage early Sunday morning with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area with highs Sunday topping out in the low 60s to around 70 degrees. Surface high pressure begins to shift east Monday with southerly flow esablishing back over the area by Monday night. The seasonable temperatures remain in place through Tuesday morning, with a slight increase into the 70s across the area for Tuesday afternoon. A tighter pressure gradient establishes over the area Tuesday into Wednesday bringing back breezy southerly wind. More notable will be the return of warm unseasonable temperaturs with forecast highs in the mid and upper 80s for most the area Wednesday and Thursday. For some locations in the west, highs in the low 90s may be seen.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The forecast remains mostly unchanged as confidence remains high in the development of widespread IFR stratus with a shot at LIFR at SAT and SSF with fog and visbys less than 1 mile at times after 08Z. Winds will remain generally NNE at less than 10 kts through the period. A return to VFR is expected by midday as a cold front shifts further east later in the day and daytime heating helps to break some of the low stratus in place.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The dryline retreats further north and west overnight with the lowest humidity this afternoon in the teens and 20s expected over Val Verde County. Wind speeds over this area are forecast to remain below 10 mph.

A Pacific cold front will bring near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions on Saturday as much drier air and gusty north winds spread across the region. On Sunday, dry air persists as temperatures trend cooler. We could still see some elevated fire weather concerns along and east of the I-35 corridor where winds remain gusty into the afternoon. Dry air lingers into Monday as breezy southeast winds return to the Rio Grande, with lighter east winds elsewhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 68 55 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 54 76 41 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 56 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 64 51 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 59 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 52 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 78 56 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 55 77 40 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 58 76 41 / 20 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 57 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 58 79 44 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.