textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather from Sunday morning through middle of the afternoon for most areas.

- Line of strong to severe storms likely late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather expected most of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

An upper level short wave moving across the Rockies early this Sunday morning and to the southeast is forecast to push across South Central Texas Sunday night into Monday morning. At lower levels, a surface low pressure system sits across north central Texas while a dry-line extends from the low to the south into the Pecos area. Clear skies are dominating the local area early this Sunday morning, but low clouds return to the Coastal Plains overnight into mid Sunday morning. Also, patchy to areas of fog are anticipated for the Coastal Plains and parts of the I-35 corridor. Sunday's highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s across the Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau to low and mid 90s over the rest of the local area with sunny skies across the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and Hill Country and partly cloudy skies for areas along and east of I-35.

By mid to late afternoon, the dry-line is forecast to push to the east and gets closer to Val Verde county while a cold front moves over central Texas. There are some indications that storms could initialized ahead of the frontal boundary out west, however, the cold front catches up and then becomes the main weather driver. Strong to severe storms are forecast as the cold front moves across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country early Sunday evening and over the I-35 corridor mid evening through around midnight or so and then over the Coastal Plains overnight.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country including Georgetown and the western part of Travis county in a Level 3 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms, Level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms for the Austin and San Antonio metro areas, and Level 1 of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms for the Coastal Plains. The main severe hazards are damaging winds that could exceed the 75 mph mark and large hail. In addition, locally heavy rain is possible over some areas which could get between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. If the front slows down when moving across to the Coastal Plains, isolated spots of 5 to 6 inches of rainfall can't be ruled out. There severe threat of damaging winds and large hail comes first and then transition into damaging winds and heavy rains around midnight.

Hi-res models are in good agreement as far as timing of the event with the cold front moving across southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country between 7 PM and 11 PM, along the I-35 corridor between 11 PM and midnight, and after midnight across the Coastal Plains.

The cold front continues to push to the south overnight through Monday morning with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s. The shower and thunderstorm activity comes to an end Monday morning with clearing expected for most areas in the afternoon. Monday's highs are forecast to stay in the cool side with upper 70s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and 80s elsewhere in the wake of the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A dry weather pattern returns for South Central Texas for most of the week with highs getting back into the upper 80s and 90s by Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions continue into early this morning before low MVFR to IFR ceilings build over the Coastal Plains through daybreak. I-35 terminals are forecast to remain VFR, though recent rain around KAUS may allow for some MVFR cigs to develop further west over the terminal. At KSAT/KSSF, opted to continue just SCT ceilings, though we will need to watch for how far west ceilings spread and for fog development around this area most favored at KSSF. A line of thunderstorms will move across South Central Texas after 00Z Sunday and have included TEMPO groups at sites for the most likely timing though this will likely be modified in future forecasts. There could be some development ahead of the main line of storms and possibly some lingering showers behind it of storms but confidence is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 92 68 81 64 / 0 90 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 68 82 64 / 0 90 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 67 83 64 / 0 80 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 65 78 61 / 10 90 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 94 68 85 66 / 0 60 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 66 79 62 / 0 80 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 68 84 63 / 0 70 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 68 82 64 / 0 80 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 68 81 65 / 0 90 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 69 84 65 / 0 80 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 70 85 66 / 0 80 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.