textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning has been issued for the western counties of South Central Texas for tomorrow between 11 AM and 7 PM.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions persists over portions of South-Central Texas the next few days.

- Above to well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The main story for today is the near critical fire weather, which has resulted in a Fire Danger Statement being in effect through 8 PM tonight for all of South Central Texas. With northerly winds around 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph, and minimum relative between 10 to 30 percent. The winds are expected to weaken later tonight and stay light for the overnight hours. The high temperatures for the region are expected to remain above normal, in the range of upper 80s to lower 90s. Even tonight, the low temperature are forecasted to remain above normal in the upper 50s.

As a surface low pressure continues to make its eastward advance while staying to the north of the region, more dry air is expected to move into the region tomorrow behind a cold front. While the current model guidance does not indicate that there will be a noticeable change in temperatures behind the front. The winds are still expected to shift towards the north. With this current forecast, there is no rainfall anticipated with the frontal passage. The major concern with the front will be with fire weather. With the minimum relative humidity in the range of the lower teens to 20s, gusty winds in the range of 15 to 20 mph, and the fuels forecasted to be dry to critically dry for the region. A Red Flag Warning is in effect starting tomorrow at 11 AM through 7 PM for the western portions of the South Central Texas.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The majority of the long term forecast period is expected to rain- free and above normal temperatures. With the region being on the edge of a mid-level ridge for most of the next several days, not much in the way of change is expected for the day to day forecast. However, towards the end of the forecast period there is an upper- level disturbance that does to try to move into the region. This does bring the most significant chances for rainfall, however the chances are still low (around 30% or less) for South Central Texas. There is still some uncertainty in the model guidance at this point, so this situation could still change.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through the entire TAF cycle. Southerly winds should begin to relax and continue to remain light overnight for I-35 TAF sites. Could see the return of some low-level clouds during the early morning hours, but should not be enough to alter the flight categories. Then expect VRB winds around 6 kts as a weak cold front pushes across the area from the northwest to southeast. Winds then switch to the north after the frontal passage and ramp up to around 14 kts with gusts up to 25 kts for all TAF sites. For KDRT expect VRB winds to occur the rest of this evening. By overnight we could see winds become more northerly before increasing in speed by tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 8 PM tonight due to the breezy winds and low relative humidity. A cold front tomorrow is expected to bring in even more dry air and breezy to gusty winds. As such, a Red Flag Warning is in effect starting tomorrow morning at 11 AM through tomorrow evening at 7 PM for the Western portions of South Central Texas. There is a possibility that a Fire Danger Statement might be need for tomorrow as well for the some of the eastern counties.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 59 90 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 88 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 89 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 57 84 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 59 96 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 86 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 54 94 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 57 90 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 88 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 58 91 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 58 92 60 85 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Thursday for TXZ171-172- 183>190-202>204-217>219-228.