textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions for most of South Central Texas today and over the eastern two-thirds of the area Sunday. Otherwise, locally elevated fire weather conditions Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains are forecast for much of the work week.

- Warm day today is replaced by near to slightly below normal temperatures tonight through Monday with a return to above normal temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A Pacific cold front will slip into the area around daybreak to where it just appears to increase winds area-wide without folks noticing a frontal passage. This is because the early arrival is shallow and doesn't feel like a front until the sun is up, and by that time deeper north winds arrive in a hurry. Fire weather conditions will be the lead story for today, and a discussion for fire weather is noted below. Mid morning temperatures perk up fast enough in the late morning to still forge a warmer than normal day, but the sensible weather will begin to feel chilly again by the time the sun gets close to the horizon. The gusty winds today should be able to hit 30 mph easily for most areas and these elevated winds should last into the first few hours of the evening, with only a light decoupling before they are to perk back up after daybreak Sunday. This means the cool air will be in place by daytime Sunday, and Sunday is likely to be the coolest day in our 7 day forecast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

High pressure builds further over the area bringing lighter wind Sunday night into Monday, and some light wind areas over the Hill Country could bring a light freeze to those areas.

Surface high pressure begins to shift east Monday with southerly flow establishing back over the area by Monday night. The seasonably cool temperatures continue into Tuesday morning, but a bump back to warmer conditions return by Tuesday afternoon. A tighter pressure gradient establishes over the area Tuesday into early Wednesday bringing back breezy southerly wind. A partial frontal passage or dry-line Wednesday will bring a contrast of moist and dry from west to east, but an area-wide drying returns from a slightly stronger front Thursday. At this time the front doesn't look quite strong enough for Red Flag concerns, but it should certainly raise a concern as elevated to near critical for fire weather. The front for Thursday looks to arrive mid to late in the day so that means Thursday could be the warmest day of the next week. Temperatures do ease back slightly on Friday but should remain above normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Little to no change from the previous forecast. IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected for another hour or perhaps 2 before a front pushes low clouds south and east and winds pick up quickly out of the north. Expect sustained winds of 12-17 kts with gusts of 22-27 kts through the rest of the period. VFR ceilings are expected to persist tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

We'll continue to highlight critical fire weather conditions from the Red Flag Warning issued for all but the northeastern row of counties in our CWA. There are still plenty of dry fuels and RH values to warrant elevated to near critical fire considerations for the counties from Llano to Lavaca, but RH values will will be lower, and the higher rain amounts received there last week might have led to a partial green-up. However, if for some reason the dew points mix down to much lower values, it might not be surprising to see more counties added to the RFW. The given is that all areas will be breezy enough to reach our RFW wind criteria, but even then, these winds are, relative to stronger fronts, on the low side. What keeps us locked in on the RFW commitment, despite some areas being somewhat marginal on one or more parameters, is that we are already getting a fair amount of wildfire instances on days that had light winds. The areas that are most solid in reaching criteria (where highest winds and lowest RH overlap) would be the corridor from Fredericksburg to San Antonio to Pleasanton extending west to the Rio Grande.

Based on the MAV MOS guidance for Sunday, the NE winds are still expected to kick up enough for an elevated to near critical day, but generally for just the eastern two-thirds with lower winds expected over western counties.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 73 40 64 38 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 39 64 35 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 40 64 36 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 35 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 41 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 37 63 35 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 39 67 36 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 40 65 36 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 40 64 36 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 42 64 39 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 43 66 39 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ183>193-202>208-217>224-228.