textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier through end of workweek with seasonable temperatures

- Low end rain chances returning late weekend and early next week

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A less active pattern trends across South-Central Texas through at least the end of the workweek as modest mid-level ridging builds in from the west and with precipitable water values dropping into the 25 to 50 percentile range for this time of year. The onshore flow remains rather light and helps to keep dew points from not becoming too overly humid. However, with the recent rainfall and saturated grounds, shallow patchy fog could develop both this morning and Friday morning, favoring areas along and east of the Balcones Escarpment. Skies are otherwise expected to remain partly to mostly sunny. There will be some isolated to widely scattered rain and storms across West Texas and the Serranias del Burro mountains in Mexico along the dryline during Friday afternoon but guidance suggests that activity will diminish as it advances towards or into rural west-northwestern portions of Val Verde County. No rain will be expected elsewhere. Temperatures will run seasonable with the afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s to low 90s and morning lows in the mid to upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

The local ridging flattens through Saturday and allows more of a west-southwesterly flow aloft to return for the latter half of the weekend into early next week across the area. While the main upper level low/trough associated on the western side of a large-scale Omega Block settled across the CONUS ejects well to the north- northeast into the high plains, a few minor shortwaves tied to the southern sub-tropical jet embedded in the west-southwesterly flow could advance into and across the region at times. With the modest upper level energy and an uptick in the precipitable water values towards the 75 percentile range for this time of year, should be enough to promote low rain/storm chances across portions of the region. Right now, latest guidance indicates that Monday into Tuesday may see the strongest of these weak shortwaves, that provides widely scattered coverage (20-35%) than isolated (10-20%) coverage across the area. Uncertainty in the forecast increases entering midweek as the pattern will try to transition towards ridging once again but signs of some gulf moisture (perhaps associated with the seabreeze) may keep daily low end chances in play across portions of the region. Temperatures and heat indices climb a bit into early next week with more locations seeing the afternoon highs reach the low to mid 90s. The morning lows are expected to become increasingly warmer as well with increased humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Only minor changes have been made to the latest forecast for the next few hours along I-35 as satellite data and observations show low clouds and patchy fog development continues. We did opt to remove the low clouds farther west at DRT based on satellite trends and the latest hi-res guidance. Winds remain light this morning, with south to southeast winds for the afternoon and evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 90 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 69 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 87 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 73 94 76 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 88 69 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 88 70 90 72 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.