textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over Val Verde County today and Tuesday;

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions west of I-35 Wednesday, and for nearly all of South Central Texas Thursday.

- Chilly temperatures today into Tuesday morning, with a light freeze forecast over protected valleys over and near the Hill Country; above normal temperatures return Tuesday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Surface high pressure continues to spill south over east TX today, but west of Highway 281, southeast return flow winds ramp up by midday. Because of the cold morning lows and mostly light winds today, the mostly sunny skies for today will only lead to highs reaching near but just below late February normals. The chilly air digs in for one more night, although the chance of a morning freeze is lower, but perhaps still attainable at the lowest of valleys.

Winds directions should have returned to S/SE to all areas by around midnight, but the SE counties should see a much decoupled wind and therefore not much progress in the way of Gulf moisture return. By late morning the winds will be more aggressive and especially over the higher inland terrain. We are currently expecting the minimum RH values to bounce back into the 30s for all but Val Verde County, but confidence is below normal that the dew points and RH can get established enough to thwart at least a minor fire weather concern.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The pattern over the southern CONUS becomes less amplified but a more gentle NW flow aloft pattern remains over TX while upper ridging remains anchored over the west coast.

A shortwave ripple of energy drops east of the Rockies into the TX Panhandle Wednesday, shoving a high plains surface low southeastward into North Central TX. Surface winds southwest of this low turn more westerly and push what's effectively a dry-line well into our CWA, and lowers RH values as far east as the Coastal Prairies areas that are adjacent to the I-35 corridor. This will not only present some fire weather concerns but also bring a dramatic warm-up, with highs Wednesday soaring 10 to 15 degrees warmer than those expected Tuesday.

Dew points advance back westward overnight into Thursday morning as the boundary layer decouples from the 3000 FT and higher wind directions. Meanwhile, the surface low continues to advance slowly SE across North Central TX into East TX before being overtaken by a polar front moving rapidly across South Central TX between 15Z and 18Z Thursday. This will bring more fire weather issues that expand to all but the SE 3 or 4 counties of South Central TX where the RH values hold up longer.

The air behind the front isn't particularly cold, as the strongest CAA is well to the northeast. Above normal highs remain a good bet, and the southwestern counties could end up with highs just as warm as the day before. The north winds die down after midnight Friday morning, and the mostly decoupled winds should at least bring us back to near normal minimum temperatures for Friday morning.

No rain is forecast through next weekend, but at least by Friday afternoon, the southerly winds will return and keep a steady feed of Gulf moisture from S/SE winds, hopefully to give us a break from the almost daily fire weather issues.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

The forecast remains largely unchanged from the 06Z issuance with VFR ceilings expected and light northeasterly winds shifting to east and southeasterly by the afternoon hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 65 42 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 35 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 37 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 37 72 54 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 42 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 37 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 36 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 36 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 37 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 41 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 39 77 53 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.