textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions persists over portions of South-Central Texas the next few days; highest threat occurs Thursday, especially west.

- Above to well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A low pressure system advancing along the Red River tonight into Wednesday morning will result in a low-level jet across the region from the overnight into tomorrow morning above the surface. While the gustiest winds from earlier have subsided after sunset, wind speeds could remain of moderate levels pending the strength of the surface inversion at a given location. Winds will be lightest for locations where the surface inversion is the strongest, guidance favors areas west/southwest of San Antonio. For the ridge tops in the Hill Country, gusts may exceed 30 to 35 mph at times. A much warmer night is otherwise expected as this southerly low-level jet helps advect shallow near-surface moisture into the region. This could allow for a pocket of scattered low clouds to establish, mainly near and west of San Antonio.

A much warmer day is expected Wednesday as the low pressure system near the Red River helps to advance a dryline east to near the US Hwy 281 corridor. The locations to the west of the dryline trend hottest, into the 90s, and include the driest air. Winds should trend lightest across these locations while turning more west- northwest in direction. Farther east, most locations will see high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with a steadier flow from the southwest. Gusts could reach again into the 25 mph range across these locations. Otherwise, any morning clouds quickly erode into and through the afternoon into sunny skies. An even warmer night occurs Wednesday night with overnight lows only in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Winds subside after sunset and should trend lighter areas wide compared to speeds tonight. Some low clouds may try to form again towards sunrise given the warm air and any shallow moisture.

Thursday will be concentrated on the arrival of a front. The front could enter the Hill Country mid-morning before moving across the rest of the region into and through the afternoon. Compressional heating, especially off the Escarpment, could allow for warming temperatures immediately ahead of the boundary. This may allow for portions of the I-35 corridor to approach or even reach 90 degrees prior to the passage of the front. Across the Rio Grande Plains, highs into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees will be possible. Behind the front, winds will shift northerly and increase to moderate to breezy levels. This coincides with some even drier air filtering in behind the front, and this could lead to the greatest concern for fire weather within the week ahead, especially across western areas. See the fire weather discussion below for more.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Winds should remain northerly Thursday night into Friday but this doesn't look to keep temperatures from being above average. Just expect for highs to not be as hot as Wednesday or Thursday. The winds return to a southerly flow from Friday night into early next week. This will result in continued above to well above average temperatures through that time. Rainfall will continue to lack through early next week as well. A pattern change then may try to finally evolve during the middle of next week as medium guidance points towards a signal for a possible developing upper level disturbance or upper low over the Desert Southwest. Low end rain chances could return Tuesday into Wednesday as a result.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A strong low level jet will be responsible for wind shear at 2000 ft overnight at AUS, SAT, and SSF with speeds of up to 40-45 kts noted in forecast soundings. Some low clouds around 1500 feet will also develop, but VFR ceilings are expected to persist through the entire forecast period. Winds will remain around 10-15 kts with some gusts up to 20-25 kts at times today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will develop on Wednesday. A dryline advances east and will settle close to the highway 281 corridor. The driest air will be found west of the dryline with minimum humidity in the 10 to 20 percent range. However, the winds are generally lighter in this region. For the locations near and to the east of the dryline, winds will trend breezier from the south-southwest with gusts around 25 mph but humidity levels should bottom out higher in the 25 to 35 percent range. A rangeland fire danger statement will likely be needed for at least a portion or all of South-Central Texas.

The fire weather conditions could deteriorate even further for the day on Thursday as a dry front pushes through the region in the midst of a very warm February day. The front brings a moderate to breezy northerly flow in it's wake with the minimum humidity levels of around 10 to 25 percent. Near critical to locally critical fire weather likely develop. If confidence increases any more for the areas especially out west, the issuance of a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning may be needed. While dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue beyond Thursday, wind speeds trend a bit lighter through Friday while the gusty southerly winds during the weekend should help to increase the humidity levels slightly each subsequent day.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

CLIMATE ======= February 25 February 26 Location Record Maximum (Year) Record Maximum (Year)

Austin Camp Mabry 92 (2008) 93 (1954) Austin Bergstrom 89 (2008) 88 (2009) Del Rio 99 (2008) 96 (2024) San Antonio 92 (2008) 91 (1954)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 58 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 57 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 88 57 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 59 96 57 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 59 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 90 54 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 57 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 61 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 88 58 92 60 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.