textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected through Monday with another cold front bringing fire weather concerns late Friday into Saturday.

- Coldest air of this winter season to bring what should be the first widespread freeze to all areas Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A high amplitude upper trough that brought us the Wednesday cold front will pull east in a progressive fashion, allowing for height fields to recover quickly over TX. The coldest air from this system will thus not make it this far south, and we'll probably only see freezing temperatures to cover most of the Hill Country while most areas south and east of the escarpment remain above freezing this morning. Surface winds may go light for a few hours in the 11Z-15Z timeframe, but winds aloft become west to southwest and mix this warming effect to the surface by around 21Z. The wind changes will not have a full day to impact warming, but should combine with sunny skies enough to at least get us back to a normal mid-January max if not about 4 degrees warmer. The air will still be quite dry, but most of the return flow winds will not pick up enough to cause a fire weather concern, perhaps the exceptions being over areas north of a Del Rio to Burnet line.

Winds tonight will gradually pick up and bring only a modest return of moisture by daybreak Friday, and not enough to support a morning low cloud layer. The return winds will certainly be enough to keep Friday morning lows well above freezing. Daytime Friday will continue to have good mixing with surface winds influenced from the mid level westerlies leading to a healthy warm-up into the mid 60s north to mid 70s south. The beginnings of the next cold front arrive in the afternoon, and perhaps a few hours later in the day than was the timing of the Wednesday front. The latest NAM surface temperatures would suggest that all areas would continue to warm through 21Z although winds will have shifted to the north from Del Rio to Georgetown by then. The early onset of the front and the warm conditions that the front encounters means that more fire weather concerns will be in order (discussed below).

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Friday evening should see a cooling on par with the front that just went through the area, and wind winds perhaps not as strong. Saturday morning low temperatures could look similar to those this morning over northern counties, but should be less affected by the front over southern counties. However, the trough overhead gets reinforced instead of pushing east later in the day Saturday. Surface winds lighten up overnight into early Saturday, but get a midday boost as the second round of energy aloft deepens/sharpens the trough over TX. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday afternoon due breezy winds and very low humidities. The latest GFS hints at some clouds and light precip clipping through Central TX late Saturday, but only very briefly. Saturday night the cold air advection will be much more thorough, and our first widespread freeze of the season appears imminent for Sunday morning. Coldest temperatures in our CWA should be around 20 degrees, with some isolated Hill Country pockets in the teens possible. Most of the major metro areas should expect what we would call a light freeze, generally at or above 28 degrees.

The comparison of the past 1-2 deterministic solutions between CMC, GFS, ECM all show a good pattern agreement for TX from Sunday morning through Monday evening. Earlier run trends were for that sharper upper trough early Sunday leading to a solid dry and cold air intrusion. Then, easing through late Monday, the upper pattern relaxes into a broad bowl-shaped upper trough with some heights building into the west half of TX. What also appears to be shifting is the potential wet pattern for Tuesday that looks to be shifting later with better rain chances now trending toward Wednesday. This adds confidence that the area will be able to recover warmer temperatures before precipitation arrives, further lessening the potential for any type of winter mix.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR mainly SKC flying prevails. Northwesterly to northerly winds will become southeasterly at KDRT mid morning, then southwesterly to southerly at the I-35 sites late morning into early afternoon. Sustained wind speeds should be 10 KTs or less. A wind shift to breezy northerly winds is expected just beyond this forecast on Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 65 46 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 43 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 41 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 45 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 41 72 39 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 48 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 38 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 42 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 43 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 43 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.