textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Dry weather continues through the weekend with warmer than normal temperatures.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day during the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hot weather will continue through the weekend, with highs ranging from the upper 80s north to mid 90s south as the subtropical ridge aloft maintains its hold over Texas. The continental low- level east- northeasterly flow that kept the area relatively dry over the past few days will finally subside this morning, giving way to southeasterly winds by this afternoon. While this subtle change will not be highly noticeable over the weekend, it introduces a shifting trend for the days to follow. These changes include a loss of mild overnight temperatures alongside an increase in daytime humidity, minimum temperatures, and heat indices. Enjoy the less muggy evenings this weekend if you can.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The early risers on Monday morning will wake up to higher humidity and warmer morning lows. We will look to start the workweek returning to those uncomfortable heat index days typical of September.

Strong hurricane Simon in the eastern Pacific is forecast to crash into the rugged terrain of southern Mexico Sunday or Sunday night. An upper-level trough moving into the western CONUS is nudging slowly eastward and is eventually expected to push the upper ridge east, bringing a front to the area late next week. Meanwhile, tropical moisture pooling over the western Gulf will wrap around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, which continues to provide relentless heat over our region. Heat index values will climb back into the 100 to 108-degree range for many areas, and this pattern will hold through at least Wednesday. There is sufficient moisture to generate diurnally driven isolated to widely scattered showers and storms along and east of the I-35 corridor, but it doesn't appear to be getting any significant boost from the remnants of Simon.

By late Wednesday, the pattern begins to shift as the upper ridge moves east. This finally introduces an opportunity to tap into a piece of Simon's remnant moisture. The current guidance only accounts for increasing rain chances over the Edwards Plateau starting Wednesday night. The latest couple deterministic model cycles have the global models trending drier for the late week pre- frontal environment, despite some remnant moisture and instability from Simon remaining hung up in the high terrain to the west. Two factors appear to coincide with this drier trend: first, a northward and weaker trend with the western CONUS trough; second, a westward- moving TUTT low coming in stronger and farther north with each successive run. Frontal timing has also been highly inconsistent with this pattern change, but for now, it appears there will be at least some boost in rain chances Thursday through Friday, with a cold front arriving sometime during this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable winds and mostly clear to completely clear skies are expected through the overnight into Saturday. Winds slightly pick up into and through Saturday afternoon out of the southeast at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) and from the east-southeast along the Rio Grande, including KDRT. Winds then subside after sunset. With the return of a more southeasterly flow, moisture starts to return in the lower levels, and this leads to returning low clouds late in the 30 hour TAF period at KAUS and KSAT, resulting in MVFR ceilings for KSAT beginning at 10Z Monday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 66 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 66 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 90 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 88 64 88 69 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 70 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 65 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 67 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 65 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 66 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 68 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 92 69 93 74 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.