textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue through next weekend.

- Low to medium chances for rain and isolated storms mid week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Benign weather continues to start the month of March, with an ongoing pattern of mild nights and cloudy mornings followed by unseasonably warm afternoons. The low-level jet strengthens some tonight and should maintain a light southerly wind across most of the area with breezy ridgetop conditions sporting gusts up to about 30 mph. Monday remains warm with highs 10-15 degrees above average under mostly sunny skies and a modest breeze. Monday night likely won't offer much different with the humid onshore flow remaining steady. Unfortunately, that means Tuesday morning's lunar eclipse will be likely be shrouded in clouds for most of the area.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The upper-level ridge contributing to our steady weather is expected to move east into the Gulf on Tuesday. To our north, a mid/upper level shortwave trough should pass over the Central Plains midweek, bringing a cold front that stays to our north and decays into a weak baroclinic boundary. Synoptic forcing for ascent is diffuse and focused to the north closer to the disturbance aloft, but continued moist advection and accumulating instability should support chances for isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms beginning about Wednesday and continuing to the weekend. Given the modest forcing, models are having a difficult time depicting the coverage and timing of these rains. The decaying front to the northwest, perhaps impinging on the Hill Country, and the core of moist advection over the Coastal Plains would be favorable spots for initial shower development on Wednesday, but subsequent activity may hinge on more subtle, convectively reinforced boundaries once the shortwave trough departs. Moisture will be plentiful during the period, so it will be worth monitoring for a heavier, localized springtime rain.

A broader and deeper trough approaches the area towards the weekend, bringing a potentially more widespread opportunity for rains for South-Central Texas, accompanied by a potential front. Ensembles support a portion of the trough detaching and dropping south towards the Baja California or eastern Pacific on Saturday. This could extend the supply of Pacific moisture into our area but also complicates the forecast considerably, adding a higher level of uncertainty. The main takeaway rain-wise is that the broad weather pattern favors a general increase in rain chances over the second half of the week into the weekend. Continued southerly winds will maintain warmer than normal temperatures throughout much of the week, though the rain chances late week do at least provide temporary opportunities for rain-cooled temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The dense morning cloud deck is breaking and trending to VFR conditions across the Austin and San Antonio terminals for the rest of the afternoon through late this evening. For KDRT, the low clouds are lingering for a few hours and cigs are forecast to become VFR by 20Z. A moderate southeasterly flow of 10 to 15 knots and gusts of 20 to 25 knots is forecast to prevail for the rest of this afternoon through early this evening. Gust winds relax this evening with prevailing winds forecast to range from 5 to 10 knots tonight through Monday morning. MVFR cigs return across the I-35 area airports late tonight through mid Monday morning. There is a low chance for IFR cigs for the Austin and San Antonio terminals overnight as wind speeds drop down below 10 knots. VFR cigs are forecast to come back shortly after 18Z Monday. Continued southeast flow around 8 to 10 knots with occasional gusts up to 15 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 62 82 63 87 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 83 62 87 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 61 83 61 87 / 10 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 80 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 62 85 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 81 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 59 85 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 83 61 87 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 83 63 87 / 10 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 63 85 63 88 / 10 0 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.