textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms will result in a dangerous flash flooding threat through Thursday.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely for portions of the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, including the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.

- Pockets of an additional 10 to 20 inches of rain are possible within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches.

- Potential for significant downstream river flooding in the Pecos, Rio Grande, Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio river basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A significant threat of torrential rainfall, significant flash flooding, and downstream river rises continues tonight. There is a High Risk (the highest risk category, Level 4 of 4) of heavy rain capable of causing flash flooding along the southern Edwards Plateau and throughout the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding is possible for these areas. Significant downstream river flooding to Moderate or Major flood stages will be possible. A Flood Watch highlighting the potential for life-threatening flash flooding remains in effect from now into Thursday evening for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, Winter Garden region, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor. While the High Risk region delineates the area of greatest concern, heavy rain will be capable of causing flash flooding anywhere within the broader watch area.

As of noon Tuesday, up to a foot of rain has fallen in portions of these areas, with the heaviest rains so far impacting Bandera, Medina, and Uvalde counties. On top of these already considerable amounts, another round torrential downpours is expected tonight. The most persistent storms may produce over a foot of rain tonight into Wednesday (between 10 and 20 inches) with extreme rain rates exceeding 3 or 4 inches per hour at times. The southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains are at greatest risk for significant additional rainfall. This could occur over the same areas hardest hit from rains last night and this morning.

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a guarantee of your safety! Heed warnings, instructions from local and county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be impossible to spot at night. Make sure you have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings. If you are in a low-lying location or near a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if needed.

This morning's upper-air sounding at Del Rio reported a precipitable water of 2.26 inches, above the 99th percentile of atmospheric moisture for mid-July. We expect similarly anomalous moisture to continue to be available for new storms to draw in. An stationary front at the surface and aloft is draped across the area, concentrating moisture over our region. A mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident in radar imagery over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains, embedded within this area of elevated moisture. This will be a primary trigger for heavy rain. Additional rainfall is also ongoing throughout Central Texas accompanying the broader band of convergence. While scattering and somewhat lowered intensity of rains is anticipated and ongoing this afternoon over South-Central Texas as low-level winds weaken, the low-level jet is expected to intensify this evening with the HREF mean guidance showing winds at 850mb becoming 10-15 kt stronger than this morning. This will likely reinvigorate and concentrate torrential rainbands around the MCV tonight, and this looks to be the primary mechanism for flooding rainfall concerns. The heaviest rainfall will likely be near the center and along the south to eastern flanks of the disturbance. Most of the high- resolution models position the center of MCV near the Rio Grande tonight. This places the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains at greatest risk for exceptional amounts of additional rainfall capable of causing significant flash flooding.

Intense bands of slow-moving torrential rainfall may persist late tonight through Wednesday morning. Some decrease in activity is possible Wednesday afternoon, with more spread out/lighter rainfall consistent with the usual diurnal behavior of MCVs. However, regional models show a continued zone of high humidity in the low and mid-levels, and the MCV or related areas of concentrated vorticity are will likely be present heading into Wednesday night. The low-level jet is also forecast to be even stronger Wednesday night... around 30-35 kt from the Rio Grande Plains to Edwards Plateau. This means that Wednesday evening/night into Thursday morning will likely be another timeframe for torrential rainfall over these areas. The precise area of heaviest rain will depend on where the MCV is located and orientation of the LLJ. Most models show some westward shift as the MCV slides slightly north and west in response to the strong ridging over the northern tier of CONUS. Regardless, there could be considerable overlap with areas already impacted by prolific rainfall, resulting in a heightened risk for considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding. The greatest threat Wednesday into Thursday morning will again be along the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio and southern Edwards Plateau, with a round of extreme rain amounts possible. This will likely add to elevated streamflows and prolong or exacerbate downstream rises and impacts in rivers. The currently active Flood Watch extends into Thursday evening. Total rainfall amounts from this week's heavy rain event may end up amounting to over half of the normal annual rain total for some locations.

Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to recieve warnings and information from local/state officials both in the daytime and at night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The low/mid-level steering winds Thursday and Friday will be directed towards the northwest. This will favor the MCV accompanying the heaviest rains also moving towards the north or northwest. While this implies that the rainfall later this week may not be as concentrated as Tuesday/Wednesday, a strong plume of tropical moisture is still forecast to trail the outgoing MCV, persisting across South-Central Texas. Strong integrated vapor transport across the Rio Grande Plains and Edward Plateau will continue to support chances for heavy rainfall, especially at night when the low-level jet is most intense. A Level 3 of 4 (Moderate) Risk for excessive rainfall capable of causing flash flooding is highlighted by the Weather Prediction Center for Thursday to Friday morning for the southern Edwards Plateau, including the Del Rio, Rocksprings, and Brackettville areas.

There are promising signals for an end to this heavy rain event towards the end of the week. Surface high pressure is expected to expand over the southeastern US into the Gulf. This will help to smear out the remaining vorticity over Texas and reduce moisture convergence aloft. Rain chances are forecast to generally decrease during the day Friday into the weekend, but we encourage staying up to date with the forecast and staying vigilant as the remaining moisture could still support isolated rains over saturated soils.

The weekend looks drier for most of the area. The current long-range ensembles and national model blend is also generally dry for early next week, though specifics will depend on whether the dominant ridge over the northern US will expand or drop south enough to suppress activity over our area. For now, the model consensus favors this depiction.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MVFR and VFR conditions are forecast for the area terminals for the rest of this afternoon into the evening. Lower cigs are forecast for the Austin area during the overnight period through at least 12Z Wednesday. For now, added light rain for the San Antonio and Del Rio airports for the tonight into Wednesday time frame. There is low confidence on where lightning strikes will show for this forecast period, however, we will closely monitor and update the tafs accordingly. As far as the wind flow, it looks to remain from the east to southeast around 10 knots or less. Stronger gusts with heavy showers or thunderstorm activity.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 84 72 87 / 30 60 70 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 84 72 87 / 30 60 70 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 83 72 87 / 40 70 70 80 Burnet Muni Airport 70 82 70 84 / 30 50 60 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 84 71 85 / 80 90 100 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 85 71 87 / 30 50 60 60 Hondo Muni Airport 71 82 70 84 / 60 80 70 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 84 72 87 / 30 60 60 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 85 73 88 / 20 40 30 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 83 73 85 / 50 80 70 80 Stinson Muni Airport 74 83 73 86 / 40 80 70 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ171>173-183>192- 202>206-217>219-228.