textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northerly post-frontal winds persist overnight with much cooler air filtering into the region.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist through Monday as winds gradually subside during the day.

- A light freeze will be forecast Tuesday morning across the Hill Country and portions of the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains.

- A rain free forecast through next week with a warming trend for midweek into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The strong post-frontal north winds persist through the overnight with peak winds between 20 to 35 mph sustained and isolated gusts around 45 to 55 mph. Highest gusts could occur across the higher elevations across the Southern Edwards Plateau to near highway 90 and for the Hill Country. Peak winds should decline near and beyond 5 AM this morning. This is when the Wind Advisory is on target to end. These north winds will also continue to usher in much cooler air during the night with morning lows falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the region. Wind chills could fall as low as the mid 20s to mid 30s as well. Despite the arriving cold air, the strong winds combined with poor moisture recovery will prolong concerns for critical fire weather conditions through the overnight.

The north winds will continue to gradually subside through the day today but remain breezy with gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range into early afternoon. Speeds then slack off even more during the late afternoon into early evening before becoming light after dark with surface high pressure building over the state. A much cooler day will be expected with afternoon highs in the 50s to low 60s. An increase in high level clouds occurs during the afternoon into the evening from a minor disturbance rounding the base of the large trough to our east. These clouds should decrease into and through the overnight. With the light winds and decreasing cloud cover, enough radiational cooling is to occur to result in a colder night in terms of temperature for most locations. Tuesday morning will likely see a light freeze across the Hill Country and for portions of the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Elsewhere, temperatures bottom out in the mid 30s to low 40s. Tuesday trends sunny with warmer temperatures as the winds shift and increase from the south as the surface high slides to the east. The afternoon highs will return to the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Anomalously strong upper level ridging develops across the western CONUS into midweek. The ridge will expand in size through late in the week into the weekend with its periphery nudging east across western portions of Texas. This along with a continued light to moderate southerly flow will allow for a warming trend for the remainder of the forecast period. Highs Friday through the weekend again climb to where the daily records could be threatened across the region. Despite the southerly flow, moisture return looks to remain rather modest, with dew points primarily only reaching into the 50s. This will keep skies mostly clear through the long term period with no rain expected.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026 Only scattered high clouds are left in the next 24-30 hours. Winds remain the primary concern with a few gusts over 40 knots possible in the next few hours. Strong gusts to 35 knots will remain possible after daybreak with the mid morning sun possibly helping with the gust potential. By 18Z, the model trends significantly lower for the afternoon gusts, but we usually see the gusts overachieve while the mixing is maximized. Thus will not revert back to a sustained wind for the I-35 sites until around 00Z Tuesday. Light winds and mostly clear skies are expected over all sites by 03Z Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Critical fire weather conditions persist through Monday. The strong post-frontal northerly winds are to peak overnight as speeds have already been observed with sustained values in the 20 to 35 mph range with gusts above 50 mph for several locations. These winds continue to advect cooler temperatures into the region towards morning. Despite these falling temperatures, the moisture recovery overnight into the morning is very poor with the highest humidity only in the 30 to 35 percent range. Winds will start to slowly weaken as soon as daybreak, with a continued gradual decrease throughout the day. However, wind speeds remain breezy enough with the minimum humidity levels dropping back as low as the 10 to 20 percent range during the afternoon for continued critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 8 PM.

The northerly winds subside to light speeds by or near sunset this evening across the entire region. Otherwise, conditions primarily remain on the dry end through the rest of the week but do expect returning southerly winds starting Tuesday. Humidity levels during each afternoon from midweek into the weekend will fall mainly of around the 15 to 30 percent range. This is as temperatures warm through the week, where highs could near records again by the weekend. Enough wind could develop at times to for the mention of elevated fire weather conditions. Overnight moisture recovery is expected to improve later in the week with the southerly flow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Record Low Temperatures March 17(Tue) Austin Bergstrom 30 (2005) Austin Camp Mabry 30 (1913) San Antonio Intl 32 (1947) Del Rio 33 (1969)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 34 67 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 30 67 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 34 66 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 31 65 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 40 71 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 31 67 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 33 68 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 33 67 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 32 66 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 36 66 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 37 68 45 79 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.