textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- The forecast remains relatively unchanged with intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms resulting in a dangerous flash flooding threat continuing Today.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, western Hill Country, and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio.

- Pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain are possible within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches.

- Potential for significant to catastrophic river flooding in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina river basins and significant flooding in the Pecos, Rio Grande, and San Antonio river basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant rainfall capable of life-threatening flooding is again expected overnight tonight through tomorrow morning. This includes likely impacts from considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio including the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country, plus a renewed potential for significant mainstem river flooding into Moderate and/or Major flood stages in the Pecos, Rio Grande, Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio River basins. This is also in addition to significant to catastrophic river flooding already currently ongoing in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina basins as floodwater's from earlier rains continue to move downstream. The potential for renewed impacts from flash and river flooding include areas already hard hit by recent flooding. While these locations are at greatest risk and highest confidence for seeing significant impacts, a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM today for a broader area across the I-35 corridor, the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains, and southern Edwards Plateau. Dangerous flash flooding from torrential downpours will continue to be possible for all of these areas.

In the highest risk areas (southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains and western Hill Country) regional values of 2 to 6 inches continue to remain possible with the potential for pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain through today over this area. Otherwise 1 to 4 inch totals continue to be possible over the remaining portions of the Flood Watch area. Very high rainfall rates potentially reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour will again be possible overnight tonight and into this morning. Because of how saturated soils are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to trigger flash flooding that will again rapidly accumulate into creeks, rivers and arroyos across the area. It will not take much more rainfall to produce major concerns. Additionally, steep rises along the Frio, Medina, and Nueces rivers and their tributaries to Moderate and/or Major flood stage are already occurring and could eventually flow downstream with the potential for catastrophic impacts. Continued heavy runoff and rains in these or other river basins may produce further rises which could impact downstream areas.

The flood event is not over!

The well-defined mesoscale convective vortex responsible for the previous few nights of torrential rainfall across parts of the area will again be the main focus for renewed activity overnight into the morning hours. A robust low-level jet tonight looks even stronger than previous nights and will again support torrential downpours. It's still quite difficult to say with certainty where this MCV forms yet again as models are having a difficult time in deciphering this. However, once the MCV reforms the general consensus is that the vorticity will eventually track slowly north and west with time, guided by flow from a retrograding upper-level low. As stated previously, wherever this MCV re-initiates will be where the heaviest bullseye of rain will fall overnight tonight into this morning. Another 10 to 15 inches of rainfall will be possible in this heavier bullseye.

Heavy rainfall may linger into this afternoon across the area as tropical moisture continues to flow across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, though as we have seen the past few days, there should eventually be a lull as rain coverage begins to ease up. The main forcing for these storms should eventually begin to move further away from the area towards the north. Regardless, tropical moisture will continue to stream northward behind the outgoing disturbance, setting up for another round of potentially heavy rainfall again tomorrow night(Thursday night) into Friday morning mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and parts of the western Hill Country. Once again, these rains could impact areas already hard hit. One caveat is that slightly faster mid-level winds should allow storms to move somewhat faster, however multiple rounds of heavy rains may still occur again.

There remains a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of excessive rain capable of causing flash flooding for Today through overnight/into Friday morning, with the most likely timeframe occurring during the overnight/morning hours. The risk area for heavier rains and flash flooding Tomorrow night through Friday morning is expected to shift slightly north and west but moisture will continue to remain plentiful across South Central Texas.

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if needed.

WPC keeps parts of the western half of our area (Val Verde, Edwards, Kinney counties) in a level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for excessive rainfall with a level 1 of 4 (Marginal) risk across the western Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains for Friday during the day. Depending on how this activity evolves will determine if we continue to see elevated flooding potential continuing into Friday afternoon and even perhaps into Friday evening

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 140 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

By late week the upper pattern should start to readjust, however we will likely still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will continue at least out in our western areas through Friday.By Saturday and into this weekend we look to dry out at this point. High temperatures should eventually moderate as we get to Saturday and into the weekend with the return of 90s and more seasonable temps expected into early next week. Additionally, we may see heat indices begin to approach 100 to 105 degree range as all the moisture and water begins to evaporate over the area and combined with temps ramping up into the upper 90s by mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 111 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

No significant changes to the aviation forecasts at this time. We will continue to monitor convective trends and adjust the forecast as needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 75 90 75 / 60 20 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 75 90 75 / 60 20 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 74 90 75 / 50 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 85 73 88 73 / 70 30 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 73 87 74 / 80 80 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 73 90 74 / 60 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 85 73 88 74 / 60 40 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 74 90 75 / 50 20 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 76 91 76 / 30 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 76 89 76 / 60 30 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 87 76 90 76 / 50 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>207- 217>219-228.