textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer, with more seasonable temperatures forecast next week with low rain chances Tuesday/Wednesday for the Coastal Plains.

- Above normal temperatures possible by late week into the weekend

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tonight will be several degrees warmer than the previous evenings with many areas remaining in the 30s to low 40s. We remain under a highly amplified pattern aloft across the CONUS with ridging in the west and deep troughing to our east. As a result we should see highs in the 60s with even some low 70s possible mainly across the eastern areas as we warm several degrees despite the increased cloud cover from the moisture influx that should come in overnight. Monday evening remains very mild with many areas remaining in the 50s to even near 60 for lows as thick cloud cover sticks around over the eastern two thirds of the area. We could also see areas of patchy to dense fog as dewpoints and temps rise to meet each other thus increasing the saturation point. Once this fog lifts early Tuesday we could see highs in the low to possibly mid 70s especially for southern areas.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Not much has changed in the long term from previous discussions. Depending on the speed and the strength of this next frontal boundary. Hi-res models are starting to come into agreement and it now looks like some areas mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor could see showers/iso t-storms as soon as Tuesday morning prior to this frontal passage. There continues to be some vorticity in the mid levels as this disturbance progresses west to east across southern TX, however models are still not showing much as the better forcing and moisture continues to remain across our far eastern areas (Coastal Plains) and further to the east. This likely would be our best shot of rain for the entire forecast period. The trend however, has continued to be one of less and less precip chances as the ridge currently off to our west looks to approach our area faster while at the same time flattens out and the upper level flow becomes slightly more zonal in nature. Regarding cooler temps, this looks to be a somewhat weaker front and we arent expecting as much cold air on the backside as we have seen with the previous few fronts across our area. Highs and lows return to more seasonable levels Wednesday and Thursday in addition to remaining dry. We could see a reinforcing albeit brief shot of colder air work its way down to South Central TX before the ridge out west tries to work its way slowly east Friday. As we approach the weekend we could see highs several degrees above normal (mid 70s) and even some spots hit 80 as the ridge over the western CONUS continues to strengthen and build further east over our area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Warmer dew point temperatures are creeping up the Rio Grande, which signals the growing trend models have for the return of low clouds. The low cloud arrival will get to DRT right around daybreak, so this means the temperatures in the early morning will fall efficiently to result in a near 100 percent surface RH. Some light fog is offered for a few hours at DRT, but winds are expected to stay up a bit to keep the VSBY up a bit. A slightly later arrival of clouds is expected at SSF/SAT and then AUS, so, unlike at DRT, the brief period of IFR CIGs is not included for today as temperatures will already be warming by the time the clouds should arrive. Time sections depict a pretty deep layer of saturation in the low levels at least at SAT/SSF, so the CIGs should run well into the afternoon. We'll show a lifting to low end VFR in the early afternoon, but any earlier timing could lead to a more rigid inversion and lower CIGs throughout the day. Assuming the skies break out in the late afternoon and early evening, CIGs should reform fairly early in the night and fall to lower heights and VSBYs than they are expected to do this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 57 71 43 / 0 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 56 72 42 / 0 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 56 72 44 / 0 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 54 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 48 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 56 70 40 / 0 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 53 73 45 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 56 73 43 / 0 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 58 74 45 / 0 10 30 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 56 71 47 / 0 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 57 73 48 / 0 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.