textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A very humid and unsettled weather pattern continues through the middle of next week with daily rain and thunderstorm chances.

- Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are possible this weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An active weather pattern is expected over the next week as nearly continuous southwesterly mid-level flow sets up over the southern and western CONUS. Ample moisture advection within WAA ahead of an upper-level low over the West Coast will result in a series of shortwave disturbances moving through the flow this weekend.

The latest GOES-19 imagery in the region depicts several areas of showers and storms with coverage expected to increase through the afternoon hours. Most of this activity is diurnally driven but daytime heating and weak deep layer shear. As a result, storms forming today will be similar to yesterday, prone to collapse, clashing with cold outflow to produce additional showers and storms. Rainfall rates could be heavy at times but how long storms linger over one area shouldn't be particularly long, so flooding risk is low today.

On Saturday, things get a bit more interesting, particularly out west over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau. As the aforementioned trough moves inland over California Saturday afternoon, a strong shortwave will eject out over west Texas, allowing a dryline to sharpen. This boundary is likely to remain well west of the area on Saturday, but deep layer shear out ahead of it, along with ample instability will trigger strong to severe storms over west Texas that should make it into Val Verde County and portions of the Edwards Plateau late Saturday evening. Out ahead of this convection, most of South Central Texas will see similar coverage of showers and storms as Thursday and Friday with streamer activity bubbling up in the late morning/early afternoon and continue through the evening hours. Some locally heavy downpours are possible along with gusty winds but the primary severe threat is out west, where a Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk is in place for Saturday evening. Hail and wind are the primary concerns.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Any storms that can maintain some intensity will be ongoing early Sunday over the Edwards Plateau, but the main action looks to arrive late afternoon and evening as the dryline pushes further east Sunday afternoon. Increased southwesterly flow, instability, and shear will bring about a conditional threat of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. It is ultimately dependent on how quickly things can destabilize again after any morning convection over the western half of the CWA Sunday morning. SPC has a day 3 Level 1 of 5 risk for the entire area Sunday, and a level 2 of 5 risk for portions of the Hill Country as well. In addition to the severe threat, WPC has a Level 2 of 4 risk over our region Sunday-Sunday night for heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of flash flooding. Storms should fire up late afternoon over the Rio Grande and slide east through the evening hours, with large hail, damaging wind, and locally heavy rainfall the primary hazards.

Southwesterly flow continues through the start of next week with at least one more lead shortwave on Monday before the main trough ejects out over the Plains on Tuesday. An active weather pattern will continue with daily rain and storm threats, with the possibility of severe storms Monday-Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Main concern would be isolated convection over first few hours of the period along the I-35 corridor, especially around KAUS. Put in an increase in easterly winds with outflow boundary until 02Z and a TEMPO group for possible -TSRA. Activity should otherwise diminish after dark but some overnight showers can't be ruled out, but activity should remain isolated in nature and will not mention in the forecast at this time. Widespread MVFR ceilings return towards 05-07Z and IFR after 10Z. Similar to today, expect ceilings to gradually rise back to VFR Saturday afternoon, with another chance for scattered showers and storms through the afternoon. Elected to add PROB30 groups for -TSRA at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) after 18Z and VCSH for KDRT after 21Z as a result.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 66 82 69 81 / 20 50 50 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 82 68 80 / 20 50 40 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 82 68 80 / 30 50 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 65 79 67 77 / 10 40 60 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 82 69 84 / 30 50 90 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 81 67 78 / 20 40 50 60 Hondo Muni Airport 66 81 67 79 / 20 50 50 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 82 68 80 / 30 50 40 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 82 69 81 / 20 50 20 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 82 69 79 / 30 50 50 60 Stinson Muni Airport 67 83 70 80 / 20 50 40 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.