textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire conditions expected today with gusty winds and low relative humidities.

- Widespread hard freeze expected tonight into Sunday morning with lows in the 20s.

- First meaningful chance at rainfall in weeks arrives late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1207 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The latest GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows the frontal boundary has made it all the way to the Middle Texas Coast early this morning. Behind the front, cooler and significantly drier air has worked into South Central Texas. In combination with a lack of rainfall, critical fire conditions are expected Saturday as north winds of 10-20 mph, gusting to 30mph at times are expected. More information on the fire weather concerns can be seen in the Fire weather discussion below. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s over the Hill Country on Saturday and out of the 50s elsewhere. Despite the cooler temperatures, we will see plenty of sunshine Saturday.

The pressure gradient should loosen by late Saturday afternoon as a surface high over the Panhandle dives southeast into the Hill Country Saturday night. This will set the stage for the first legitimate widespread hard freeze across the region this Winter season. Temperatures will tumble quickly under clear skies, light winds, and dry air under a surface high Saturday night. Expect lows in the 20s area wide, with a few low-lying areas in the Hill Country possibly dipping into the upper teens. Temperatures should warm back above freezing by mid-morning Sunday, and afternoon highs should climb back into the 50s and lower 60s as west- southwesterly flow ramps up as high pressure slides southeastward.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1207 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The long term will feature one storm system early in the period that may bring some much-needed rain into the area as early as Tuesday evening. In the wake of the surface high's departure, southerly flow will resume, but moisture recovery will be somewhat slow. On Tuesday, a disturbance will move in from northern Mexico, and result in enough lift to produce showers and perhaps even some moderate rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. For now, rain chances look best along and east of I-35, but trends in the track of this storm system will need to be monitored. This storm system will shift east by Thursday will another cold front, this time weaker, moving through the area. Southwesterly surface flow quickly resumes on Friday along with zonal flow aloft, leading to warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period under mostly clear skies. Wind will be the main focus today with north to northeasterly wind increasing this morning and remaining gusty through the afternoon from the Hill Country east. Gusts will generally be from 20-28 knots at I-35 terminals through 02-03Z, then wind weakens to under 6 knots overnight into Sunday morning. DRT is forecast to remain gust free with winds from the east during the day with light and variable wind overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The Texas Forest Service places much of the region, particularly the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains within the very high to extreme Fire Danger category for Saturday. A combination of minimum relative humidity values between 10-20 percent, breezy northerly winds of 10-20 mph, gusting to 30 mph at times, and freeze cured grasses will lead to critical fire weather conditions all day Saturday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the entire region from 10am to 8pm Saturday. Chances for wetting rains will finally return late Tuesday into Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 54 28 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 55 26 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 27 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 50 24 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 53 25 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 59 23 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 25 62 31 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 57 25 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 57 30 60 35 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 58 30 61 34 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ205-217>222- 228.