textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Seasonably hot July temperatures continue.

- Low end rain/storm chances early week and next weekend, best chances Monday afternoon/evening from Hill Country to the I-35 corridor

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A mid to upper level trough has moved into the Mississippi Valley with a ridge from northern Mexico to the central Rockies. This is producing weak flow over Texas. Surface high pressure over the Gulf is keeping southeasterly flow in the low levels and a warm, moist airmass in place. A cold front will stall near the TX/OK border and generate thunderstorms over north TX. These storms will generate outflow boundaries that could send some convection into our northeastern area this evening. Otherwise it will be another seasonably hot day and warm night. Monday there will be another round of storms along the stalled front near the Red River. Models are showing a better chance for some storms to move into our northern counties starting during the afternoon Monday and continuing into the evening. Any storms should be confined to the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The upper ridge will push the stalled front back northeast, and dry weather will return to our entire CWA for the rest of the work week. Hot and dry weather will be the foreast each day. Temperatures will rise a few degrees by Friday, but heat indices will remain below Heat Advisory levels for most of the CWA. A few spots in the east could reach advisory level each afternoon Thursday through Saturday. Saturday another upper trough will ride over the ridge to the southeast US. This will bring another front north TX. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to South-Central Texas Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions are once again in place early this morning across the region. The greatest concentration of MVFR ceilings is impacting KSAT and central portions of the region near the Balcones Escarpment. KAUS and KSSF has wavered between SCT and BKN categories over the last hour or two and should continue to do so over the next few hours. Near the Rio Grande and KDRT, VFR conditions should primarily continue. In addition to morning low clouds, there will be some scattered higher level clouds moving through the region. VFR will return across all sites by mid to late morning and should continue through at least midnight. After that, we'll again monitor for potential development of low clouds entering Monday morning. Similar to the past few days, have kept mention of SCT to BKN low clouds, with KSAT most likely the more impactful site with prevailing MVFR conditions. The winds will remain of light to modest speeds from the south-southwest to south-southeast with peak speeds up to around 10 kt with locally higher gusts at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 98 78 97 77 / 0 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 78 97 77 / 0 0 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 96 75 95 74 / 0 20 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 79 100 78 / 0 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 77 96 77 / 0 10 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 76 96 75 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 98 77 97 77 / 10 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.