textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather conditions through early next week

- Dry cold front pushes across the local area Friday afternoon and creates elevated to near critical fire conditions over parts of South Central Texas and most of the local area on Saturday

- A new surge of cold and dry air spreads across South Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday with the coldest morning in store for Sunday morning with a freeze forecast for all of South Central Texas

- Rain chances are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 107 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s and even lower 70s along the Rio Grande are in store for this afternoon thanks to the surface high pressure over east Texas. As the surface high moves to the east this afternoon and evening, the return flow takes place across the local area and light southerly winds remains until the next frontal boundary arrives on Friday afternoon. Breezy northerly winds are forecast in the wake of the front but not before temperatures reach the mid to upper 60s across the Hill Country and lower to mid 70s along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Some clouds may be around Friday night through Saturday morning with light winds out of the north while the dry and modified cold air spreads across the local area. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the lower 30s across the Hill Country to mid 40s along the Coastal Plains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 107 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Dry and cold air stays in place with highs only reaching the upper 40s and 50s areawide. It is going to be very dry with dewpoint temperatures between single digits and teens. Relative humidity values drop to the teens and 20s percentiles mid to late morning into the afternoon hours. Northeast to east winds of 10 to 15 mph are forecast for most areas. These types of weather parameters come crucial for fire weather. That being said, elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions are forecast to most of South Central Texas on Saturday. A Fire Danger Statement is likely needed if the weather forecast continues to shape this way.

It looks like a pocket of very dry air pushes across South Central Texas on Saturday night into Sunday morning in combination with the cold in place to make for the coldest morning across the area thus far. Forecast lows for Sunday morning range from the lower 20s to lower 30s. A freeze is forecast across all of South Central Texas. Light northerly winds are forecast for Sunday morning to make temperatures feel-like in the teens over the Hill Country for several hours. A recommendation to all during these times is to take care of the four P's: Plants, pipes, pets, and people.

Temperatures recover during the day with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s. Another chilly night is forecast for Monday morning with lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Moving forward on time, late Monday night into Tuesday, chances for rain begin across the Rio Grande and expand to the north and east throughout the day. Rain chances continue into Wednesday with dry weather returning on Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 534 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds should relax to less than 10 kts after sunset this evening and remain southwesterly through the night. A FROPA will occur around early to mid morning Friday, bringing a quick shift in winds from the southwest and west to the north/northeast by early afternoon. Gusts up to 20-25 kts are expected along with VFR ceilings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 45 71 40 53 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 42 73 41 54 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 40 71 41 54 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 44 65 34 49 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 40 71 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 47 69 37 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 37 73 42 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 41 73 41 54 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 42 73 42 55 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 42 72 44 54 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 40 73 45 56 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.