textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend today through this weekend with record highs possible Friday through Sunday.

- Mainly elevated fire weather conditions possible most days due to low minimum humidities across portions of South Central Texas.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Lower level moisture recovery is beginning with higher dewpoints making onto the Coastal Plains on south-southeasterly flow. This trend will continue while a lower level thermal ridge establishes. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge, centered off the southern California coast drifts onshore today to Arizona on Thursday bringing warmer mid level temperatures. The strengthening lower level thermal ridge and mixing with the warming mid levels lead to a warming trend with above average temperatures returning. Local fire weather issues continue in the short term into the long term. See FIRE WEATHER section below for details.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

The mid level ridge, dare I say Subtropical Ridge expands to over Texas late this week through the weekend. A strengthening lower level thermal ridge and daytime mixing with the unseasonably warm and dry mid levels will allow high temperatures to soar to around record levels Friday through Sunday. See the CLIMATE section below for details. The mid level ridge flattens as moist southerly lower level flow increases to result in daytime temperatures backing off from the record levels, though they remain well above average early to middle of next week. Some model runs continue to show a brief frontal incursion on Monday into Tuesday, however the overwhelming model/ensemble consensus keeps it north of our area. Subsidence underneath the ridge and below seasonal average moisture keep rain out of the forecast.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Mostly clear skies should last through the next 24-30 hours. There could be an isolated pocket of MVFR cigs at the 28-30 hour time frame, but confidence isn't good enough to put it in either of the 30 hour TAF periods for AUS/SAT. High clouds will remain FEW to BKN through the period. Winds will be mostly a diurnal fluctuation of mainly 5 to 12 knot sustained speeds, except in the early morning when there could be a few light and variable reports sprinkled in.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Lower level moisture recovery is beginning with higher dewpoints making onto the Coastal Plains on south-southeasterly flow. Although, moisture increases due to the southerly lower level flow, mixing should keep minimum humidities rather low today and Thursday. However, they will be higher than the last few days and combined with lighter winds yield locally elevated fire weather conditions mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor. Daytime mixing with the warm mid levels allows for warmer surface temperatures and in turn lowers minimum humidities back into the teens and 20s Friday through Sunday. While winds are generally light keeping fire weather conditions elevated most areas through Sunday, they increase along the Rio Grande on Sunday to possibly yield near critical fire weather conditions there. Increasing moisture should return higher minimum humidities next week.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Record | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |

(03/20) (03/21) (03/22)

AUS | 92 (1976) | 90 (1952) | 98 (1971) | ATT | 91 (1976) | 91 (1952/1917) | 96 (1971) | SAT | 93 (1976) | 94 (1904) | 96 (1971) | DRT | 96 (1932) | 93 (1916/1907) | 96 (1995) |

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 79 52 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 50 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 50 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 52 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 51 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 79 48 85 51 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 78 49 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 49 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 52 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 79 51 84 54 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.