textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures arrive Saturday and continue through the middle of next week.

- Showers and storms remain mostly west overnight, with an increase in coverage over South Central Texas by midday Saturday.

- Locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Lots of moving parts in the short term period which will determine coverage of showers and storms over the next 24-36 hours. A surface low will continue to strengthen over the Upper Midwest early this morning, as a trailing cold front extends from eastern Iowa, southward through central Missouri, and into north Texas. This boundary will eventually slide southward into South Central Texas late Saturday morning into the early afternoon hours.

The latest hi-res models have struggled with convection over the Serranias del Burro mountains of northern Mexico and whether or not they will make it off the higher terrain and cross the international border. As of the 10pm hour, organized storms still haven't worked off the terrain, so the longer this trend lasts, the less likely storms will move across the border. If convective coverage is lower overnight into Saturday morning, more widespread rainfall appears like a better bet along the front that is expected to move in, as destabilization ahead of the boundary would be greater, leading to increased coverage along the frontal boundary. At this time, the thought is that this scenario is the more likely one, given latest convective trends.

Any storms that form along the front have the chance to become strong to severe, particularly as they get east of the I-35 Corridor in the afternoon hours, where the SPC has a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms Saturday. Damaging wind is the primary hazard along with lightning and locally heavy rainfall. At this time, areas along and north of the I-10 Corridor and west of I-35 have the best chance for rainfall totals greater than 1 inch, with NBM probs around 60-70%. However, hi-res guidance is typically more representative and the 00Z HREF is not in yet. FWIW, the 12Z HREF has odds of 50-60% for >1" from a Fredericksburg to Austin line and northward Saturday.

Cooler temperatures will accompany this cold front, with highs going from the 70s and 80s Saturday, to the upper 50s to mid 60s Easter Sunday. Expect some soggy easter egg hunts and chilly temperatures Sunday along with overcast skies all day. Models are somewhat torn on how widespread rain will be on Sunday, but hi-res guidance does favor redevelopment after sunrise Sunday, particularly over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor, westward into the Rio Grande Plains.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Expect a cooler and dry Monday as the front shifts south into the Corpus CWA. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s for most Monday, but some spots, particularly the I-35 Corridor and points east should get into the lower 70s.

Weak west-northwesterly mid-level flow will keep some weak disturbances riding through the region this upcoming week. This will result in a more active pattern for the first half of April, something we desperately need to alleviate both short term and long term drought issues. One of these disturbances moves through on Tuesday with another slated for Thursday or Friday. For now, confidence in the large scale pattern is low for next week, particularly beyond Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR cigs will continue to develop over the next couple of hours at area TAF sites. Some light showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm remain possible overnight, but coverage should remain too low to mention through the early morning hours. We expect to see a better chance for convection during the late morning and afternoon as a cold front moves in from the north. Overall, only minor changes were made to the forecast regarding TSRA. We did add a PROB30 for DRT as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 53 68 53 / 90 20 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 53 67 52 / 90 30 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 53 66 52 / 90 30 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 71 50 66 51 / 90 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 57 65 55 / 70 40 60 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 52 67 51 / 90 20 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 52 64 51 / 80 40 40 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 53 67 52 / 90 30 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 55 69 53 / 90 40 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 54 66 54 / 80 30 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 80 55 66 55 / 80 40 40 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.