textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain free through Sunday afternoon with low to medium chances for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall Sunday night through Wednesday.

- Increasing humidity and heat indices through Tuesday, with some spots feeling like 100-105+ Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A look at the latest GOES-19 Mid-Level Water Vapor imagery depicts some rather dry air in the mid-levels as shortwave ridging remains in control over South Central Texas this afternoon. A look at the 12Z DRT and BRO soundings shows this drier air from just above the surface through the remainder of the profile. A weak surface high off the middle Texas coast will shift eastward later tonight, setting the stage for rapid return flow out of the southeast and moisture surging northwest just in time for the weekend.

For today, we're expecting mostly sunny skies, but some haziness my sneak in as air quality takes a hit from the I-35 Corridor and eastward into the Coastal Plains. Temperatures should climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s, but the humidity won't be a problem...yet. Enjoy this last day of lower humidity, because it'll only climb through the remainder of the forecast. Some patchy fog is possible over the Coastal Plains Thursday morning, but most locations won't see much other than clear skies and variable wind. Tonight will be the final night of widespread lower to middle 60s as southeasterly surface flow increases by mid-morning Thursday in response to a deepening surface low in the lee of the Rockies. Winds will be rather breezy, sustained at 15-20 mph throughout the afternoon Thursday. Winds probably won't let up much Thursday night as the aforementioned sfc low slides southeast into the Texas Panhandle Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

On Friday, the surface low over the Panhandle will remain in place, setting the stage for strong southeasterly flow to continue pumping moisture inland through the end of the week and stretching into the day Saturday. Overnight lows will continue to trend up, going from the upper 60s to the upper 70s by early next week. The humidity will be downright miserable, but keep in mind with increased humidity, comes increased heat indices, particularly over the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains where heat indices may climb into the 100- 105 range Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. By Sunday, broad troughing over the western CONUS will send a series of shortwave disturbances into South Central Texas, as a dryline sharpens over the western CWA Monday and Tuesday. Strong to severe storms appear possible both days, with all hazards possible. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding is also possible, as the WPC places a good chunk of our area within a heavy rain risk area on the 18th-19th of May. Additionally, the CPC has odds leaning towards above normal rainfall for our region at 50-60% for days 6-14 (May 18-26). It looks as if we will be in for a return to a more active pattern in the long term.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current forecast period. South to southeast winds will continue through the period with clear skies or some passing high clouds moving in from the west. Considered adding some patchy fog to the I-35 sites for Thursday morning. However, with low confidence in fog development, will not include in the forecast at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 67 92 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 64 90 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 91 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.