textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain free conditions for the next several days with increasing warmth and humidity by the end of the workweek

- Elevated heat indices and a return of low end (20-30%) rain and storm chances this weekend

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Last night's stormy weather has moved out as the front has pushed well to the south and the upper level disturbance is exiting the region to the east. Moderate to slightly breezy north-northeast winds remain into early this afternoon but decrease later this afternoon into this evening as surface high pressure continues to build across the area. The northerly flow will keep drier air and lower humidity in place into Tuesday. Highs this afternoon and tonight's lows trend a few degrees below the seasonal average for this time of year. Tuesday will see lighter winds, that begin to turn more easterly, with highs near average. Tuesday night into Wednesday will then see the return of a light south-southeasterly flow as the surface high slides to the east into the Southeastern CONUS. Expect for skies to remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny through the period.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 126 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Mid-level ridging will hold through midweek but expect for warmth and humidity (with rising dew points) to increase as the south- southeast lower level flow strengthens. While rain chances will remain out of the forecast, the higher low-level moisture should result in greater cloud cover, especially late at night into each morning. The ridging then starts to flatten out by the end of the week into the weekend. This will allow for a southwesterly flow establish aloft and the opportunity for subtle shortwaves to approach from the west. This will result in the return of low end (20-30%) rain/storm chances by the latter half of the weekend. Chances could increase during early next week with the potential signal for a little more of a pronounced upper level trough approaching from the west. As common for this time of year, we'll have to analyze the capping inversion and any other mesoscale features as we approach this time frame.

In addition, a continued persistent moderate to breezy south- southeasterly flow will result in a very humid airmass with dew points potentially climbing as high as the mid to upper 70s late this weekend into early next week. This combined with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s for many would allow for peak heat indices to become elevated near or in excess of the 100F degree range. Overnight lows would also run above average around mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

All terminals are back to VFR. DRT still has a ceiling, but clouds will scattered out over the next few hours. VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the period in San Antonio and Del Rio. MVFR visibility will develop at AUS for a few hours Tuesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 64 85 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 84 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 85 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 88 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 83 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 61 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 62 85 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 84 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 86 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 87 66 91 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.