textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty showers and storms with gusty winds possible today.

- Line of strong to severe storms likely Sunday night into early Monday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures and dry weather expected most of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Convective activity near and around South-Central Texas have left behind a patchwork of subtle outflow boundaries this afternoon. While the main contributors to lift have mostly left the region, somewhat cool mid-level temperatures and the subtle presence of those boundaries will continue to provide mostly lower-probability opportunities for isolated popup showers and lightning with the best chances late afternoon and early evening. While wind shear is low and will prevent more organized or prolonged storms, the cooler temperatures aloft and moist environment could support stronger localized gusts from the spotty thunderstorms, and in fact model soundings and aircraft observations suggest ample amounts of downdraft instability is present, exceeding 1000 J/kg DCAPE. Most should stay dry today, but it could be a rainy and windy few minutes for a few isolated spots. Some small hail is also possible.

Any residual storm activity this evening should fade overnight following loss of daytime heating. Patchy mistiness or light fog is possible Sunday morning over the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor. Most of Sunday is expected to remain on the dry and sunnier side as a mid-level dry slot courses across the region. Highs on Sunday are expected to climb into the 90s for most of the region, with portions of the Rio Grande Plains pushing into the mid-90s. While drier and sunny weather prevails over our area, a trough will be diving southeast across the Rockies, accompanying a frontal boundary that will be approaching our area late Sunday and sweep across the area Sunday night into early Monday morning. While some isolated thunderstorms could form along the dryline in Val Verde County late- afternoon to early evening Sunday, a greater chance for more widespread storms is expected Sunday night along the front. While they do vary slightly in timing, there is good agreement in the hi- res models in showing a widespread line of storms pushing northwest to southeast near and after sunset. Moderate wind shear and instability available to this putative line of storms indicates the potential for damaging winds and some large hail, with a general shift towards winds as the main threat heading through Sunday night as the line moves farther south. The Storm Prediction Center highlights a Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for severe weather for the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Austin area, with a Level 1 of 4 (Marginal) risk extending farther south into the Coastal and Rio Grande Plains. Storms should be moving quickly, but the atmosphere supports a few heavier downpours leading to widespread totals of 0.5-1 inch of rain and pockets of 2-4 inches from heavier activity.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The longer term forecast heading into the work week looks quieter. The trough helping to bring Sunday night's storms and cold front through the region will be vacating our area Monday morning, with a developing ridge moving over our area from the SW US and holding steady for most of the week.

Temperatures in the wake of the cold front should knock temperatures down to near to below average levels Monday, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s north of I-10 and mid 80s south. A warming trend should carry through the week as the ridge stays overhead, bringing highs back into the 90s for most by about Thursday/Friday. Overnight lows will also be steadily climbing through the week as southerly blow beneath the ridge notches up dew points.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Dissipating showers near KSAT are noted and we will keep a brief mention of VCSH for early this evening. VFR should continue this evening, with low clouds returning Sunday morning. With the recent rain around AUS, we did opt to include a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs beginning around sunrise. We will keep SAT and SSF VFR, but did continue to mention SCT low clouds and fog. Toward the very end of the 30 hour TAFs, (11/04Z) we expect to see a line of storms move out of the Hill Country and into the I-35 corridor. We will not mention TSRA in the forecast at this time. However, later TAFs will almost certainly have a period of thunderstorms Sunday evening after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 91 67 81 / 10 0 90 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 91 67 81 / 10 0 90 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 91 67 82 / 10 0 80 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 89 64 77 / 10 10 90 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 94 68 85 / 0 0 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 90 66 79 / 10 10 90 10 Hondo Muni Airport 69 91 66 84 / 0 0 80 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 91 66 82 / 10 0 90 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 90 68 81 / 10 0 80 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 92 67 84 / 10 0 90 0 Stinson Muni Airport 71 92 68 84 / 0 0 80 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.