textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

UPDATE

Issued at 720 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Extended PoPs a bit further southeast showers moving across the area this morning. No changes to the afternoon and evening forecast at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

An upper low approaching from the west and a Pacific moisture plume moving into TX will keep the radar echoes active today, with strong storms to develop over West Texas by this afternoon. A few runs of rapid refresh hinted at a strong storm or two leaking out of Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains earlier in the day, but we think the persistent mid clouds and light showery weather should hold the convective temperatures in check until later in the evening. Still, an isolated elevated clap of thunder is reasonable to expect. Rainfall amounts from these low "chance" category PoPs should be generally below 1/10 inch.

Our PoPs are perhaps a bit generous for Val Verde county as most of the better resolution model data keeps the cap in place through 00Z. Shortly afterwards there could be explosive development with all severe weather types becoming possible from supercell activity initially, and then some bowing segments as we get later into the evening. This favorable pattern for the bowing segments means that that a potential for brief tornadoes could last in to the late night hours as storms remain intense over the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains. Finally, after 3-4 AM or so we should expect to see weaker inflow support for the squall, and we continue to expect a weakened squall to reach the metro cities with a low end severe threat for hail and damaging winds. There is an interesting trend to be monitored, however, as the model run trends have shown a brief re- deepening of the upper low as it crosses TX. This could potentially rekindle some new discrete cell development near the leading edge, so we certainly woouldn't want to downplay the severe threat over the I-35 Corridor just because it's not as severe weather prone as the Edwards Plateau Counties are expected to be.

Model trends have been remarkably consistent on the rain threat area being maintained over the Edwards Plateau counties and partially into the Hill Country. We might anticipate a couple areas where some severe discrete cells moved slow enough that the developing line trained a second round of heavy rain, to warrant a Flash Flood Warning. Most rainfall amounts shown in the QPF reflect a strong squall line that slowly picks up forward speed while weakening as it moved toward the I-35 Corridor. With the past rain event only hitting in isolated spots, run-off issues should be minor in the most populated areas. The southern Counties may have gotten the best deal on rainfall amounts with the past system, this system will hold the higher totals north, while there could be some areas along our southern forecast border that could miss out entirely.

A few strong storms are suggested to be possible near the Highway 77 Corridor counties as daytime heating increases activity by midday. However, the upper low track has evolved to pass closer to our forecast area as a deeper system, and that will probably deliver a faster mix-down of westerly winds at the bottom of the low. That being the case, we may need to consider cooler afternoon highs for Wednesday afternoon with more areas struggling to get out of the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The remainder of the 7-day forecast leaves no opportunity for rain. Seasonably cool weather is lined up for Wednesday night through Friday morning, before the mid-level height fields recover to leave a flat zonal pattern over TX. There is dry ridging over Mexico so the warm temperatures this weekend will not come with the humidity seen over the past week. The hot and dry weekend weather will end with a front by Sunday night, leading to more near normal temperatures for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Elevated southerly lower level flow has kept CIGs higher through the overnight. As a result, IFR/LIFR has been confined mainly over the Hill Country with MVFR elsewhere. There could a brief lowering just after sunrise, however, will keep these trends until CIGs lift to VFR this afternoon. SHRA/TSRA will develop through today with the best chances northwest of the TAF sites. MVFR/IFR CIGs return late this evening into the overnight. A band of SHRA/TSRA is expected to move over our area this evening into early Wednesday morning and have maintained PROB30s at KDRT for 10/21-11/03Z and at the I-35 sites for 11/08-14Z. S to SE winds 5 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 25 KTs will shift to mainly NW with passage of the band.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 64 81 49 / 30 80 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 62 81 49 / 30 80 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 84 63 82 49 / 30 70 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 80 61 79 47 / 40 90 40 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 58 86 53 / 60 90 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 61 79 47 / 40 80 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 84 59 82 49 / 30 80 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 63 82 49 / 30 70 60 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 67 79 51 / 20 50 80 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 64 82 51 / 30 80 40 10 Stinson Muni Airport 85 65 83 52 / 20 70 40 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.