textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- A few thunderstorms remain possible south of I-10 and east of I-37.

- Cooler air surges from the northeast today and brings below normal temperatures into midweek.

- Seasonably mild weather and low daily rain chances return late in the week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 135 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A large dome of cool air has engulfed the eastern CONUS and is expanding SW into Central TX today. A small synoptic scale upper low moving east along the Red River valley is overriding this cold air intrusion and has so far inhibited the colder air from pushing into the western part of the EWX CWA. The overrunning of this shallow cold air intrusion continues to produce numerous showers and a potential for an isolated storm early this afternoon. The potential for a thunderstorm is rapidly clearing from NW to SE with only a suitable environment for an isolated lightning strike left in the area east of I-37 and south of I-10. Rain chances will trim to mainly east of Highway 281 this evening with perhaps a patch or two of drizzle to announce the transition of unstable air into a more stable air regime. Subsidence in the wake of the upper low will settle in this evening with our western counties finally catching up to the cold temperatures that have already been established over Central TX. Low cloud cover is expected to remain in place over the region, and this will limit the amount of cooling in regards to the min temperatures for Monday morning. No more rain is expected 24 temperature changes for the morning lows will be generally be about 10 degrees colder out west but only about 5 degrees colder over Central TX. Chilly NE winds will continue to undercut a cloud canopy Monday, locking in high temperatures to the 50s to near 60. The coldest minimum temperatures of the week are expected Monday night after some partial clearing takes place over mainly Central TX.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Cool and dry days are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday while shortwave upper ridging passes west to east across TX. The stable period will be short-lived and broader the zonal flow pattern over the southern CONUS only allows for the sun to visit for about a day or so before low level moisture thickens back over the region. By Wednesday evening, deepening moisture brings a few streamer showers back with the upper pattern turning more southwesterly in advance of the next southern US upper trough. Surface ridging remain entrenched over the Deep South and some coastal troughing could also combine with this pattern to bring enough lift for overrunning light showers. Temperatures will gradually migrate back to more seasonable values late in the week while the skies remain mostly cloudy to cloudy. Over the weekend another backdoor style cold front is expected to arrive and have another shortwave bring more overrunning rains.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Widespread showers continue along the I-35 corridor this afternoon and we will continue to mention prevailing -SHRA BR in the forecast through late afternoon. The coverage of showers should decrease during the evening and have opted for VCSH. Once the showers wind down, cigs will drop into low end IFR overnight through most of Monday morning. Out west at DRT, skies have trended back to VFR and this will continue through the afternoon and early evening before low clouds return after 03Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 48 55 46 66 / 20 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 47 56 45 67 / 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 47 55 46 67 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 45 53 43 65 / 20 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 54 61 51 62 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 45 55 43 65 / 20 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 48 59 46 66 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 46 55 45 66 / 20 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 48 58 45 66 / 30 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 48 57 47 65 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 50 58 48 67 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.