textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County through Friday morning.

- Wind Advisory for all of South Central Texas Friday with sustained winds of 25-30 mph and gusts between 40 and 50 mph.

- Much cooler air behind a cold front Friday through Sunday with the first true taste of Fall air.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A busy first 24-36 hours is ahead of us as a powerful cold front swings through South Central Texas tonight and early Friday. Out ahead of this front, continued warm and humid conditions persist this afternoon. Out west, in Val Verde County, a Flood Watch remains in effect through 7am Friday as locally heavy rainfall is expected on the tail end of the front as it moves into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains late this evening. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are expected with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches possible. The latest 12Z suite of CAMs and hi-res guidance including the RRFS, REFS, and HREF members indicate that the front will likely move through the region an hour or two faster than the previous forecast. This is a common theme as we get closer to FROPA, as global models typically have a difficult time with shallower cold air masses. While there is a chance for rain for most areas, the greatest concentration of rainfall will be over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau late this evening. Most locations outside of that will see less than 0.5 inches of rain before all is said and done.

Winds will quickly pick up behind the front, likely in the 25-30 mph range with gusts of 40-50 mph likely from sunrise Friday through sunset in the evening. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 4am Friday through 7pm Friday to account for these gusty winds. Any rainfall should quickly end by mid-morning Friday followed by skies breaking to partly cloudy by the afternoon. Strong CAA is expected despite some sunshine in the afternoon, and we have adjusted for highs to be reached in the morning before falling through the day as cooler air filters in behind the front. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, with mid to upper 60s/lower 70s everywhere else. Add in the gusty winds, and jackets will most certainly need to have the dust shaken off as we break them back out. Friday night will feature the coolest temperatures since the Spring, as temperatures dip into the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The weekend is shaping up to be rather cool, with high pressure settling in and temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s on Saturday. Saturday night will be even colder than Friday night, as strong radiational cooling sends temperatures down in the lower to middle 40s over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau, and into the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. 850mb temperatures will even dip as low as 2 to 3 C Saturday morning, which is fairly impressive given how warm its been lately.

On Sunday, we start to see surface flow and return flow develop out of the east and southeast, particularly late in the day, but highs will still only climb into the 60s and 70s. The slow and steady warming trend continues Monday through the middle to end of next week, but there are signs of increased rainfall towards late week and next weekend. For now, things are dry after the passage of this front through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Scattered TSRA is ongoing along an arc from west of KDRT northeast to KSOA. This convection should slowly sag east and south through 04Z before a strong cold front rapidly pushes activity southward tonight. TSRA along the advancing front is most favored around KDRT, with frontal activity farther east likely to be sparse -SHRA. Expect a shift to north winds and increase to widespread sustained 18-30 kt surface winds with gusts of 35-40 kt following arrival of the front, affecting all area terminals. Low level flow is mostly unidirectional, but a core of 40-45 kt sustained wind will likely be present near FL025 behind the front. MVFR conditions are forecast along and immediately behind the front, but the CIG forecast is more uncertain than usual as post frontal winds may clear out low clouds faster than forecast. CIGs should improve to widespread VFR with convection diminishing by the afternoon. Gusty winds continue through the period, but sustained winds are expected to slowly decrease after 23Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 67 50 69 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 63 46 65 / 50 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 63 66 49 67 / 80 50 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 66 48 68 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 69 48 70 / 40 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 68 49 69 / 40 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 69 51 70 / 40 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 69 51 69 / 40 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 70 52 70 / 40 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ183.