textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- A dry cold front moves across the local area later this afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions in the wake of it.

- Wet and cool weekend with beneficial rains through the period.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

An upper level storm system moving across the Central Rockies Mountains early this Thursday morning is forecast to push to the southeast into the Texas Panhandle by around 6 AM. In the meantime, weather conditions across South Central Texas are quiet with clear skies and light southerly winds. Overnight lows are projected to range from the 40s over portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and 50s into the low 60s elsewhere. With limited moisture return by the morning commute, expect sunny skies and a nice warmup by noon time. Some low clouds could get going along the Rio Grande by mid to late morning as 850mb moisture increases based on forecast soundings of the RRFS/HRRR/RAP models. Between 12 and 3 PM, the upper level system above mentioned is forecast to be moving over Oklahoma and north Texas. At lower levels, a low pressure system and associated frontal boundary are forecast to push to the southeast. The cold front extends from central Texas to the eastern Trans-Pecos area. Moving forward in time from the 3 to 6 PM hour block, the cold front enters the southern Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country. By this time, the warmer sector (I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and Rio Grande) stays dry with limited moisture to work with, but some low clouds are anticipated to develop across the Coastal Plains. With the late arrival of the cold front, high temperatures are likely reaching the 80s across most locations in South Central Texas. The dry front moves over the I-35 corridor in the evening and pushes across the Coastal Plains between midnight and 3 AM Friday. The northerly wind shift initially is around 10 mph or less in the wake of the frontal boundary. However, a few hours later, a surge of boundary layer winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph are forecast to spread across most of the local area for a breezy overnight period. Overnight lows in the 40s and 50s over most areas and low 60s across the Coastal Plains.

Friday will be cooler in the wake of the cold front with highs in the 60s and 70s. Some areas could see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies while others stay partly sunny all day. Light northerly winds prevail across the local area through the period.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Surface northerly winds shift back to the southeast bringing Gulf moisture across the local area overnight into Saturday morning. And here comes the next upper level system moving across the western Four Corners region and northwest Mexico. This upper level system slowly moves eastward over northern Mexico throughout the day and night on Saturday. At the surface, increased moisture from the Gulf pushes across the Rio Grande during the morning period with pwats in the 1.6 to 1.7 inches and where rain chances start at 20 percent. Moving into the afternoon, increased moisture stays in place while instability comes up, resulting in rain chances expanding eastward and ranging from 20 to 60 percent. Rain chances continue elevated (40 to 60) across the local area for Saturday evening with the wettest period forecast to be from Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Rain chances diminish some for Sunday, but with the upper level system still to the west of the local area, wet conditions are likely to persist into Monday. Temperatures over the weekend will be cool with highs in the 60s and low 70s and lows in the 50s. The Sun is going to have a hard time coming out with cloudy skies through the period. Low confidence when it comes to Monday's forecast as models differ. For now, we are going to show rain chances between 20 and 30 percent for the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. All of this rain will be beneficial for the local area during a 48 to 72 hour period. Storm rainfall totals are forecast to range form a few hundredths over parts of the northern Hill Country to between one to two inches over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande. Austin and San Antonio metro areas could see from one quarter to an inch.

Dry weather looking to return on Tuesday with a warming trend mid week but it is just slightly above values for this time of the year (highs: low 70s, lows: 50s).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Only a few high clouds expected for the next TAF period. All terminals will be VFR. Winds will be light overnight and through mid-morning Thursday. Then southerly winds will develop in Austin and San Antonio, but wind speeds will stay below 10 kts. A cold front will move into the region Thursday night turning the winds to the north.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 82 56 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 55 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 82 57 75 55 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 80 52 69 53 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 56 72 57 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 52 72 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 81 56 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 55 75 54 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 57 78 55 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 81 58 75 56 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 82 61 77 58 / 0 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.