textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady warming trend through Wednesday with apparent temperatures in the 90s to around 100F.

- Low to medium (20-40%) rain/storm chances return for the middle to end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The warming trend continues with highs today expected to reach the mid 80s for most of the area, with upper 80s in the Winter Garden region under mostly sunny albeit partly cirrus-lined skies. Low- level winds over South-Central Texas will be responsive to pressure falls concentrated over the Central Plains today, leading to a moderately breezy afternoon with gusts up to the 20-25 mph range. Breezy conditions are expected to persist especially at higher elevations into Tuesday morning as 850mb winds strengthen temporarily.

After a day's worth of moist southerly flow, dew points will be back above the mid-60s come Tuesday, keeping the overnight hours much more mild with lows in the mid-60s to near 70 before sunrise on Tuesday. A thermal ridge will overlap with this moistening, so afternoon heat indices are forecast to rise into the 90s for most locations with peak values around 95 to 102 in the Rio Grande Plains and San Antonio area. Stronger troughing advancing over the southwestern US will allow a dryline to propagate farther east into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late Tuesday afternoon before retreating back west. The capping inversion is likely to hold firm during the daylight hours with the thermal ridge in place, but a weak shortwave arriving late Tuesday evening or into the night could provide just enough extra lift to spark an isolated nocturnal thunderstorm over the plateau on the retreating dryline. Coverage will likely be low, with less than 20% PoPs, but a storm in that environment could produce some large hail given ample shear and conditional instability aloft.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The dryline should make another eastward jog Wednesday as upper troughing approaches. Better convergence along the dryline may provide a better opportunity for some storm development during the day mainly north of I-10 and closer to the I-35 corridor, but capping is still expected to keep rain chances on the lower side and should favor more isolated activity. Aside from those low chances, expect warm and muggy weather with heat indices again in the 90s for most with the most humid spots near 100.

Our next cold front cuts in from the north behind the dry line with most models showing an arrival sometime between Wednesday night and Thursday morning. That air will shove away the midweek warmth and humidity, bringing highs in the 70s Thursday and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s Thursday night. Some showers are possible along the front when it arrives, but the prospects for rain behind the front are uncertain and are largely tied to uncertainties with the handling of an upper-level cut-off low over the Baja California. If that disturbance arrives faster (such as depicted by the previous 12Z ECMWF), that would shift rain chances closer to the front. A slower front (such as depicted by the GFS) could delay rains, potentially keeping that episode distinct from the frontal airmass itself. Ensembles dip their toes in both outcomes, so current ensemble fields and the national blend have rain chances smeared generally between Thursday and Saturday without much of a favored outcome at the moment. We should get a clearer picture on our late week in the coming days, but for now, a broad and low chances (mainly due to uncertainty in timing as opposed to environmental favorability) for rain are depicted Thursday through Saturday along and in the wake of the front, with an accompanying potential for some thunder. A gradual warming trend is also anticipated amid this activity through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

low cloud formation is non-existent so far over the Coastal Bend with satellite imagery only depicting some stratus in Mexico south of LRD. For this trend we'll scale back the low cigs to only showing a brief MVFR stint for a couple hours at SSF and continue the trends of the previous TAF package otherwise. Low clouds should get a good head start for tonight, but even then we don't anticipate low CIGs at the TAF sites until after midnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 85 70 90 73 / 0 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 70 90 74 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 68 90 72 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 83 68 89 71 / 0 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 69 92 72 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 69 90 73 / 0 0 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 86 67 92 72 / 0 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 68 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 69 89 73 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 69 91 74 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 87 69 92 74 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.