textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Warmer than normal temperatures through the week.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day during the week.

- Cold front late week. Heavy rain possible. Cooler weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

An upper level ridge has built over TX today. The low level flow has become southeasterly. Moister air is returning to South-Cental Texas with dewpoints 5-10 degrees higher today than 24 hours ago. There is a stationary front stretched across the Gulf into Mexico near the mouth of the Rio Grande. This pattern will stay in place tonight. The low level southeasterly flow will bring overnight cloudiness to most of the CWA. The result will be warmer temperatures Monday morning. During the day Monday, the stationary front will push back northward as a warm front. This will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms to the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor during the afternoon. The boundary will continue to the north and east leaving dry weather over our CWA Monday night. Southeasterly flow will bring overnight clouds back and temperatures will be warmer again Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Tuesday an upper trough along the west coast will begin to move inland and turn the flow over TX to the southwest. At the same time the low level flow will continue from the southeast and moisture in the vertical will increase. We will see showers develop during the afternoon both Tuesday and Wednesday. Chances for rain will spread from the Coastal Plains to the eastern Hill Country. In addition to the rain chances, temperatures will increase into the middle of the week. With the higher humidity heat indices will push back above 100 degrees for most of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday. There will probably be some places that reach Heat Advisory criteria, but these conditions will not be widespread. Models continue to move the upper trough across the central Rockies and into the Plains bringing a cold front through South-Central Texas. They seem to be getting more consistent with the rain chances later in the week with the possibility of locally heavy rain Thursday night/Friday. Behind the front temperatures will be lower Friday through Sunday. Low temperatures next weekend could be in the 50s and highs in the 70s for most of the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Low clouds have thinned early this afternoon, leaving VFR conditions in place at area TAF sites. A tightening pressure gradient will also yield gusty south to southeast winds through the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening. Continued southerly flow in the lower levels will yield another round of MVFR clouds Monday morning. For now, we will keep cigs MVFR, but can't rule out some brief IFR cigs for KSAT and KSSF around sunrise Monday. Cloud bases will be slower to lift on Monday, but will return to VFR early afternoon. Some convection is forecast tomorrow afternoon with a fair amount of the hi-res models showing higher coverage east of I-35. For now, we will not add any mention of showers or storms and continue to monitor model trends.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 93 76 96 / 0 40 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 93 76 95 / 0 40 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 92 75 94 / 0 40 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 68 88 74 92 / 0 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 94 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 91 75 95 / 0 30 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 71 93 75 96 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 93 75 95 / 0 40 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 94 75 95 / 0 50 10 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 92 77 95 / 10 20 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 73 94 77 97 / 10 20 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.