textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Saturday

- An early week cold front to bring an increase of rain and storm chances with locally heavy rain possible

- Uncertainty exists later within the week regarding the potential for heavy rain and dangerous heat

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The daily doses for isolated to scattered rain showers and a few storms will continue into the start of the weekend given the amount of moisture that is in place across the area. Similar to the past few days, activity should generally begin as early morning streamer activity that moves south to north. Activity then would transition towards more daytime heating driven activity in the afternoon, with some possible additional forcing coming from the inland advancing sea breeze. An occasional cell may become strong enough for some occasional to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and a brief heavier tropical like downpour. The greatest focus of activity would likely remain along and east of the Balcones Escarpment. Otherwise, area activity would generally wane through the evening hours with the lull extending into the start of the overnight. Warm and humid conditions maintain with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s with higher heat indices. Peak heat indices range into the 100 to 106 degree range across portions of the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Morning lows with the development and expansion of low stratus will also range generally in the mid to upper 70s over the region.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The moisture levels will increase even more across the region from Sunday into early next week (near and above the 99th percentile for this time of year) with the squeeze between the tropical moisture associated with a disturbance approaching the Northern Mexico or Southern Texas coast from the Bay of Campeche and a late season front pushing southward across North-Central Texas. Rain chances at this time look to peak (50-80%) Monday through Monday evening with around a 50-70% chance for at least 1 inch of rain in the 24 hour period along and east of the I-35 corridor. We'll monitor as the signal is enough to promote the potential for isolated instances of flash flooding. WPC highlights this potential by adding much of the region under a level 1 to 2 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall. With the rain chances, cloud cover, and modest northeasterly winds in wake of the front's passage will allow for a slight decrease in daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s for most locations. Overnight temperatures would remain warm and humid in the 70s.

Mid to late week holds above average uncertainty across the region, and hinges on the evolution of any lingering vorticity that could exist from the combo of that front and tropical disturbance to our south. The latest medium range guidance ranges from the vorticity dissipating across Mexico (this would result in a drier solution in our region), to leftover vorticity meandering in a weak steering flow before gradually lifting somewhere towards the north, or northeast (this may yield to a signal for heavy rainfall). For now, our forecast will indicate a decrease in rain chances for Tuesday night into Thursday with chances concentrating more across South Texas and closer to the coast. The chances return and bump up slightly Thursday night into Friday.

Another aspect that will feature uncertainty in the long term will be the potential of increasingly dangerous heat. A 700 mb thermal ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS starts to pivot east- southeastward toward and into the Permian Basin by Thursday and Friday. Pending the evolution on how the pieces evolve in the previous paragraph, if a less rainy solution does play out for mid to late week, then afternoon highs across the region could raise towards the mid to upper 90s to near 100 degrees for many. When adding in the elevated dew points, the heat indices could near or perhaps even eclipse 110 degrees for some areas. As a result, this could require the first issuance of heat products on the year. It is a good reminder to practice and promote heat safety!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Scattered -SHRA continues across the region near KAUS/KSAT/KSSF, including some TCU. This activity should last through 00Z. No notable VSBY impacts or TS have been observed, but chances for isolated TSRA this afternoon are around 20% for the aforementioned sites. Otherwise, expect improvement to VFR conditions today followed by return of MVFR to IFR CIGs overnight after 06Z. Brief IFR at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF is possible, but confidence was too low to specify a time period in the 18Z TAFs. Winds remain south to southeast through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 92 77 92 / 10 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 40 Burnet Muni Airport 74 90 75 90 / 10 10 0 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 96 78 95 / 0 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 92 75 92 / 10 10 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 75 91 76 91 / 10 20 10 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 92 77 91 / 10 30 10 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 93 78 93 / 10 30 10 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 40 Stinson Muni Airport 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 10 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.