textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms today through this evening across the east.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible late tonight into early Friday across the Rio Grande plains and Southern Edwards Plateau.

- Rain chances continue for most on Saturday, before shifting into the Hill Country and along and east of I-35 on Sunday.

- Warmer weather early next week, with some low rain chances mainly along and east of I-35 and the Coastal Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Isolated pop up showers and storms continue through this afternoon with more activity possible early this evening. A disturbance over our area along with southwesterly flow aloft and onshore flow from the Gulf has allowed isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop across our eastern half. Expect this trend to continue with perhaps even more robust convection forming especially for any areas that see some peaks of sun. PWATs range from 1.6 to 2 inches across the area, with the highest east so any showers or storms will be capable of producing brief heavy rainfall. Most could expect to see a half to perhaps 1 inch of rainfall in a short amount of time. Most of this activity should wane a bit after sunset much like the previous few days.

Our attention then turns to the west as an approaching upper level low makes its way into Mexico and towards west TX. Several disturbances out ahead of this low will give us repeated chances for showers and storms. The first of which arrives late tonight into Friday across the Rio Grande. Convection should form off the mountains of Mexico and continue advancing eastward into the Rio Grande. Out ahead of this disturbance Hi-Res guidance still indicates PWATS over 2 inches so any convection would be capable of producing torrential rainfall. Most guidance has this activity weakening as it crosses into our region. However most guidance has also underperformed this past week so it's not out of the question that we could see this activity hold together and advance eastward through the Southern Edwards Plateau and perhaps all the way to the San Antonio metro. Certainly something to watch for overnight tonight. During the day Friday some additional lift is likely to move across the area thus helping to expand rain and storm chances eastward across the remainder of the area, this is especially possible during the peak heating hours of the day. Convection could continue into the evening hours Friday as lift and plentiful moisture along with southwest flow aloft remain as the low creeps further eastward.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Models and ensemble members remain in relatively good agreement regarding the low pushing off to the north and east over the weekend. By Saturday, as this low approaches expect another round of afternoon to evening showers and thunderstorms. These will likely be slow-moving storms and along with plenty of moisture (PWATS near 2 inches) could lead to some heavy rainfall concerns over the above mentioned areas in the first half of the weekend. While the weekend doesnt look like a complete washout, Saturday is looking like the wetter day of the two with a drier Sunday for most with only lingering afternoon showers and storms for our eastern areas.

Monday and into next week looks to be relatively quiet in terms of weather as subtropical ridging tries to build back in over us. We should be able to finally dry out for a couple days. Additionally, we should see temps more typical of early June in the low 90s. Even though it will likely be drier weather wise we will still have plentiful moisture around as southerly onshore flow remains. With this flow, a few afternoon showers/storms may develop over the coastal plains region, but chances remain low this far out. Lastly with higher temperatures and relatively high humidity values we could see heat indices approaching triple digits by the middle to latter part of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Ceilings are mainly VFR for the start of the period, though MVFR cigs/visbys remain closer to showers and storms. Scattered showers should be the predominant feature through the afternoon over the I- 35 corridor and Coastal Plains, though thunderstorms may develop mid to late afternoon with more daytime heating. Activity should wane early this evening with drier conditions overnight for this area. Further west, some showers and thunderstorms may move near KDRT early Friday morning. Additionally, widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast to redevelop overnight into Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 73 86 72 86 / 30 40 70 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 86 73 86 / 30 40 60 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 85 71 86 / 40 40 60 60 Burnet Muni Airport 71 83 70 84 / 30 40 60 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 85 71 90 / 80 60 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 85 71 85 / 30 40 70 70 Hondo Muni Airport 72 83 70 85 / 50 60 70 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 86 72 86 / 30 40 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 73 86 / 30 40 50 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 84 72 86 / 40 40 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 73 85 72 87 / 30 40 60 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.