textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Above normal temperatures through Thursday.

- Heavy rainfall possible over Val Verde County from Wednesday night through early Friday.

- Much cooler air arrives behind a cold front early Friday with below normal temperatures to continue at least into early Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Subtropical ridge axis over the TX coast into LA and a large upper trough over the SW CONUS has the SW flow aloft well established over West TX, with strong surface winds feeding into this transition zone. The subtle shift of low level winds to push the higher PWat air toward East TX verified well and left us with only a few afternoon convective cells along Hwy 77 as expected. Now the model consensus has the low level moisture pooling being nudged back west toward the I-35 Corridor for today. This moisture shift while daytime heating is in progress could lead to one of our better chances for rain near the metro cities for the week, but even then we are talking some spotty rains of a few hundredths up to maybe half an inch from streamer convection. Should an area catch multiple streamer cells, there are some model hints of amounts over an inch, but only for a few spots.

Meanwhile most areas will continue to see dreadful heat with heat index values still capable of exceeding 100 degrees. Continued gusty south winds could help minimize some of the heat index discomfort. As was the case last night and overnight tonight, we can expect another night of muggy conditions that could lead to record low maxes for Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon, most areas will see another day of hot and breezy weather, and the signal for streamer shower activity across the metro and coastal plains disappears.

On the other side of the CWA, for the far west counties over the Southern Edwards Plateau will see destabilizing conditions as moisture tied to Pacific hurricane Simon edges slowly eastward in advance of an approaching front. There could be multiple rounds for convection with locally heavy rainfall to enter Val Verde County, near Pandale and Langtry. Initial round favors after sunset tonight into early Thursday. Another round could favor from Thursday night into early Friday. More on this latter round potential can be found below within the long term discussion.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

There is Slight (level 2 of 4) ERO area over Val Verde county for Thursday night into early Friday, and given the relatively low impact area and antecedent dryness, this is probably appropriate with maybe a 1-3, isolated 4 plus type of rain potential over western parts of the county. Sadly, a TUTT low that moved over the Yucatan peninsula into the southern Gulf brought a wave of dry mid level air out from the mid/upper ridge center and into Central TX. This change lowered our hopes of getting a productive frontal rain as was depicted in the model data from several days ago. The best we can hope for over the I-35 corridor is maybe 1 to 2 tenths from some showers as the front leaks into the area weakly Thursday night and tries to deepen around 12Z Friday. PoPs were nudge upward ever slightly over the NBM for the early to late morning hours Friday, but most areas should figure on getting a brief sprinkle for a trace or a couple hundredths.

Rapid cooling happens as the front deepens daybreak Friday, and the model trends are pointing down for the Friday maxes, especially over the northern counties. Winds driving this cold air surge are expected to approach, but remain just shy of wind advisory levels. As this front looks to be a bit stronger than the last one, and based on some raw data such as the RRFS, we could see the temps struggle to get to much above the low 60s over the northern Hill Country, though our forecast mixes in the slightly warmer NBM for now. Cloud cover will probably carry into Saturday which could limit the overnight cooling some and hinder the following afternoon max temp. We think that skies should clear up mostly for Saturday night, and this could mean a cooling trend may not be emphasized enough for the Sunday morning low. Another pleasantly cool day continues Sunday before the winds begin to turn and start back up on the warming trend for Monday.

A vague zonal pattern early next week leaves this forecaster in low confidence on what happens in terms of warming, upper ridge building and the tropical connection to cyclones over the Pacific. As it appears for now we should see a potential for light overrunning to reinforce mild temps and daily rain chances to finish out the 7-day forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR ceilings continues this morning before the clouds start to scatter out and bases rise into the VFR levels late morning into the afternoon. The south-southeast to east-southesterly winds are to pick up and trend gusty later today into the evening before subsiding from the overnight into early Thursday morning. Gusts this afternoon reach into the 20 to 25 kt range; perhaps slightly stronger at KDRT and along the Rio Grande. There is an isolated to scattered chance for showers and convection along and east of the I-35 corridor. Have kept the PROB30 for -TSRA at KAUS this afternoon as it has the best probability of the I-35 TAF sites. Will keep any precipitation out of the San Antonio terminals for now. Tonight through early Thursday could see convection, this could be locally heavy at times, enter into rural portions of Val Verde County but the probabilities remain low at KDRT, and will elect to keep any precipitation mentions out of that TAF as well at this time. Low clouds otherwise return overnight into early Thursday morning with MVFR ceilings. Conditions then improve back to VFR entering Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 94 71 91 65 / 40 10 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 69 91 63 / 40 10 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 69 90 65 / 40 10 0 20 Burnet Muni Airport 91 70 87 61 / 20 10 0 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 97 74 90 65 / 10 30 30 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 69 90 61 / 40 10 0 20 Hondo Muni Airport 94 71 91 66 / 10 10 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 68 91 64 / 40 10 0 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 69 92 65 / 40 10 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 70 89 65 / 20 10 0 20 Stinson Muni Airport 94 71 91 68 / 20 10 0 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.