textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Pleasant weather early to midweek with low humidity, including warm afternoons and cooler mornings.

- Low end rain chances (15% to 30%) return late week, mainly late Thursday through Friday for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows drier air aloft settling across our region with the PV zone aloft signaling the end of our streak of damp days. Thanks to expansive surface high pressure across the Midwest and Great Lakes, northerly flow will keep dry air rolling across South-Central Texas today and Tuesday. This will keep skies mostly clear and the weather quiet.

Afternoon highs in the sunny weather will be in the mid to upper 80s for most locations today and tomorrow, with a 60 to 90% chance of the Rio Grande Plains rising above 90F. The dry air will help tonight and Tuesday night be noticeably cooler than previous nights, with seasonable lows in the mid 60s. Portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country are likely to dip into the upper 50s, with about a 60% to 70% chance for the Llano and Fredericksburg areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Precipitable water values look to reach a minimum by around Wednesday (with mean ensemble values around the 25th to 50th percentile of climatology) as flow in the mid-levels becomes more zonal. Daytime temperatures gradually warm into midweek, but the zonal flow will keep that uptrend gradual and highs look to remain in the 80s and low 90s for the area under sunny skies.

An upper-level trough is forecast to swing from the Four Corners region into West Texas on Thursday, and then over the Edwards Plateau / Concho Valley on Friday as it transitions into a closed low. This will bring an increase in moisture and shower/storm chances to around 15-30% Thursday and Friday closer to the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau. The GEFS/GFS is the most aggressive with this pattern, depicting a stronger disturbance than most other guidance, and consequently higher rain coverage.

Separate from this feature, a tropical disturbance is forecast to drift across the Gulf, with the National Hurricane Center currently indicating a high (70%) chance of development into a tropical depression or storm within the next 7 days. While ensembles diverge regarding its potential track, the presence of the approaching trough will imbue strong upper-level wind shear and tend to keep most of its moisture and rainbands out of our area. If the system takes a north or northeastward trajectory shown in most models, the impacts to our area would be very minor. Still, weak easterly flow off the Gulf brings a low (less than 25%) chance of a few isolated to scattered coastal showers over the Coastal Plains, during the second half of the week.

The low rain chances then lessen for the weekend as the trough moves past the area. The prevailing upper-level low is expected to turn southwesterly, supporting warm temperatures and an increase in dew points.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR prevails through the period with few/sct clouds to sky clear conditions. Moderate NNE breezes trend through the afternoon into early evening with occasional gustiness up into the 20 to 25 kt range at the I-35 terminals. Wind subside overnight into Tuesday morning. The speeds slightly uptick into the afternoon on Tuesday but not as breezy or gusty as this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 66 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 62 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 92 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 88 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 86 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 87 69 87 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.