textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well Above average temperatures continue through the next seven days

- Patchy fog possible across portions of the region during the next few mornings

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40%) for rain and storms middle of next week

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Surface high pressure positioned across Oklahoma will gradually shift southeastward into the Mississippi Valley through today and into tonight. This will help to slowly shift our light northerly surface flow (of near 10 mph or less) more easterly through this afternoon and then out of the south-southeast tonight. This southerly flow then picks up into and through Saturday and will result in gusts into the 20 to 25 mph range. With the southerly connection from the Gulf, anticipate an increase in the low-level moisture and an uptick in the coverage for nocturnal/morning low clouds and patchy fog. This morning may even see a strip of low clouds and/or patchy fog develop across our Coastal Plain area counties. Low clouds and any fog erode to mostly sunny skies each afternoon.

While temperatures are not to be as hot as yesterday, especially from San Antonio west/southwestward, they remain well above the climatological average. Highs will be mostly in the 80s while locations along the Rio Grande could eclipse 90 degrees. Morning lows will be common in the 50s with some locations reaching to near 60 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The pattern remains mostly unchanged into and through early next week with persistent well above average temperatures, rain free conditions, and light to moderate southerly winds. The GFS has occasionally hinted that a front may enter the Hill Country into Monday but this seems to be more of an outlying solution when compared to the ensemble mean and other consensus guidance.

A weather pattern change looks to take hold during the middle of next week as mid-level ridging across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico finally gets supplanted by upper level energy advancing into that region. A southwesterly mid-level flow establishing aloft over our region and a continued southerly flow yield to a return of low to medium (20 to 40%) rain and storm chances from Wednesday through Thursday. The latest ensemble guidance indicate the best forcing and chances could concentrate across Missouri into North Texas but do indicate some QPF that extends southward into South-Central Texas. Differences in the evolution of the upper level energy exist, as common for being around 6 to 7 days out. At this time, the ECMWF ensembles are slightly more bullish on QPF compared to the GFS. The ECMWF AI ensemble mean had come in lower than the ECMWF ensemble mean but wasn't quite as low as the GFS Ensemble mean. Temperatures will remain above average through midweek despite increased cloud cover and the rain chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

All terminals will be VFR through this TAF period. There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings to develop in the San Antonio area later tonight, but we will keep this cloud deck scattered since the low level winds will remain easterly. Winds across the region will be less than 10 kts through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Fire weather conditions are to improve compared to the past few afternoons with much lighter winds expected today with directions becoming more easterly this afternoon and then south-southeasterly tonight. Minimum humidity levels will range from 20 to 40 percent this afternoon. Southerly winds increase this weekend with some gustiness in the afternoon to around 25 mph. Light to moderate southerly winds then maintain for most of early to middle of next week. With the southerly flow, minimum humidity levels gradually increase each subsequent day and generally will maintain near or above 30 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 85 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 55 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 56 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 81 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 86 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 56 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.