textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk of severe weather over Val Verde County Friday night and for all of South-Central Texas Saturday.

- Rain amounts expected to remain on the low side.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions expected west of I-35/I-37 Saturday afternoon and midday Sunday.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Spring-like temperatures and humidity hangs around tonight through Friday as another southern stream upper low moves towards TX. There should be plenty of morning clouds, maybe some pockets of fog to start the day, but also as seen Thursday, plenty of mixing and afternoon sun to keep the well above normal temperatures rolling. Tonight, the upper low to the west is by then close enough to generate West TX convection. There is a low potential for an isolated strong storm or two to make it into Val Verde county, probably by 03Z or later. A marginal risk (1 of 5) sits over Val Verde county through the period ending at 12Z Saturday.

The upper low appears to be still distanced enough to not promote an eastward expansion of storms into our central counties overnight, but there is expected to be plenty of inbound flow fetching Gulf moisture in towards the upper trough. Models whether deterministic or ensemble have been fairly consistent in generating overnight feeder showers over much of South Central TX, where the escarpment and I-37/I-10 corridors have the most overnight action.

Then on Saturday the dynamics are in position to set of several rounds of convection, disorganized and mainly over northern counties early on, then expanding southward to more areas as the day goes on. Model run-to-run trends favor an uptick of rain as compared to the multi-run blends and ensembles, although the populate scheme was too high already as it usually is for a multi-period storm event. The latest deterministic GFS and NAM runs are more aggressive with the mid level dynamics as it impacts Central TX, and that could potentially amplify both severe potential and rainfall potential, especially in areas closer to highway 90 which were sort of frowned upon by the LR Ensembles for QPF. So perhaps that means a few more areas around San Antonio get over half an inch and more areas around Austin get amounts closer to an inch.

However, out west along the Rio Grande it's probably likely many areas will fail to see a wetting rain, and following a mid afternoon wind shifts, there's a good chance for some areas of near critical fire weather conditions as noted in the fire weather discussion.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1206 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

With signs in recent models are slightly slower and deeper with the mid-level section of the upper low moving over TX, it now looks more likely many areas could be impacted by elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for daytime Sunday. By Sunday afternoon, the areas that got wetting rain may not benefit as much as pretty much all areas still have cured grasses. The story going into the remainder of the extended is led by fire weather concerns as well above normal temperatures continue for the rest of the 7 day forecast.

A quick ridge builds back over TX late Sunday and then the upper pattern becomes more flat by Monday night. This means that the well above normal temps will continue, and that surface winds will be southerly and perhaps more gusty than they were under the upper ridge that's currently being nudged east of TX. Will have to pay close attention each day for potential fire weather impacts as most areas remain dry.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Flying conditions will start as VFR, then MVFR/IFR CIGs develop overnight, then lower to LIFR towards morning. VSBYs will lower, as well with LIFR/VLIFR possible in spots with the best chances at KSAT/KSSF. However, KDRT will lower only to MVFR. CIGs/VSBYs rise to VFR by midday. MVFR/IFR CIGs return Friday night as ISOLD/SCT SHRA develop. Have introduced PROB30s for SHRA at the I-35 sites. Any TSRA should remain NW of KDRT. S to SE winds up to 10KTs increase to 8 to 15 KTs with a few gusts to 25 KTs on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A mostly dry Pacific Front should arrive by mid afternoon on Saturday over western counties leading to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Breezy and dry weather should continue Sunday, with more elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible for the same areas, generally west of I-35 and I-37. Drier air is forecast to remain in place for much of next week, so additional elevated fire weather days could be possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 64 75 55 / 0 30 90 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 62 75 55 / 0 30 90 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 62 75 54 / 0 30 70 30 Burnet Muni Airport 77 61 73 53 / 0 40 90 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 64 82 55 / 0 20 30 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 62 73 55 / 0 30 90 30 Hondo Muni Airport 80 60 79 53 / 0 30 50 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 62 76 54 / 0 30 80 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 64 76 56 / 0 20 90 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 64 76 56 / 0 30 70 20 Stinson Muni Airport 82 64 78 56 / 0 30 60 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.