textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Increased chances for showers and storms Tuesday through Friday over the Coastal Plains and into portions of the I-35 Corridor due to Edouard's remnants.

- Spotty heavy downpours over an inch are possible over the Coastal Prairies into eastern portions of Austin metro.

- Continued hot and humid weather will contribute to elevated heat indices in the 105-110 range through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

TS Edouard remains a compact system as it prepares for landfall near Sabine Pass this afternoon. Wind impacts should stay generally east of I-45 as the system continues northwest into East TX. Mainly subsidence impacts are expected to be felt over our South Central TX counties, but a few outer bands could form some convection generally around Highway 77 later today and early this evening.

By 12Z Wednesday the system should be relegated to just a disturbance with the forecast track to follow along and just east of I-45 toward Dallas where it is expected to disintegrate later in the week.

Forecast rain chances could expand another row of counties deeper into our forecast area, with a few cells, becoming possible as far west as Austin in the afternoon as the weakening system allows for more rain cooled outflows to push west. Hi-res models keep the simulated reflectivity generally no farther west than Travis or Williamson counties. Rain chances retract slightly east tonight and Wednesday night. Storm total rains tonight through Wednesday night should probably fall short of an inch.

Meanwhile the central and western 2/3 over the forecast area remains hot with elevated afternoon heat index values and muggy overnight conditions.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The unraveling of Edouard's remnants continues Thursday into Friday with the lowest portions of the complex shearing apart among the mean southerlies, while the circulation in the mid- levels lags back to the south and broadens over Central TX. This transition could give us our best rain chance days Thursday into Friday with the upper ridge aloft precluding much activity from happening overnight. Pooled Pwat values over 2 inches expand down toward San Antonio late Thursday into Friday to get a few more areas a shot of diurnal convection. The latest GFS runs are trending wetter with a 500 mb weakness hanging around Central TX. The more preferred solution among deterministic trends is the ECMWF which fits in better with the model blends, but there could be an increasing inverted trough extending to connect weak TUTT upstream over the Gulf by Friday. Thus expect to see a continuation of diurnal storms over the Coastal Prairies, but perhaps less activity reaching the metro areas over the weekend into early next week.

Outside of the areas with daily slight rain chances, expect days and muggy nights continue to be in near persistence form for the rest of the 7 day forecast. A peak beyond that time-frame has a potential break from the upper ridge dominance about a week from Friday with possible upper troughing developing just west over the Rockies into northern Mexico.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with FEW to SCT clouds around 4-8 kft this afternoon and evening. Some isolated showers or thunderstorms could develop associated with Tropical Storm Edouard this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon/evening near KAUS but chances are too low to mention in this forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 100 77 100 / 10 20 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 100 77 100 / 10 30 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 100 76 100 / 0 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 98 75 97 / 10 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 99 77 98 / 10 20 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 75 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 100 76 100 / 10 20 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 100 78 99 / 20 30 30 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 78 100 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 78 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.