textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- A cold front moves through overnight through Tuesday morning, with a few strong to severe storms possible over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau.

- A drier airmass arrives Tuesday behind the front with cooler mornings and mild, but pleasant afternoons.

- Potential for another weak front Thursday/Friday, but differences in timing/rain exist.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1226 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The well-advertised cold front is noted on visible satellite over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle as well as based off of area surface observations. An upper-level low is clearly shown on GOES East Channel 9 Water Vapor band centered over northeastern New Mexico. This will eject out over the Plains states, sending the aforementioned cold front southeast over the next 24 hours. The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center lines up with some of our latest thinking, pushing the Slight risk out of our area and most of the Marginal now north of South Central Texas. There is still a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau late tonight, but the bigger severe threat looks to be north of us closer to the better jet dynamics and instability. In any matter, a line of showers and storms will still roll through the region starting around 11pm and containing its march southeast through sunrise Tuesday. The entire front should be through the area by Noon Tuesday. Some stronger storms may be embedded in the line, but storms should be weakening by the time they reach the I-35 Corridor.

Tuesday afternoon will feature cooler afternoon temperatures, however, more sunshine should break out after storms move east. Tuesday night features more typical temperatures for the region in early November, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1226 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

On Wednesday, a surface high will settle in for the day, resulting in comfortable afternoon temperatures along with primarily sunny skies. Return flow begins as early as Thursday morning despite mid- level zonal flow through late week. Medium range guidance differs on the evolution of our next storm system. While the GFS brings a few showers through on Thursday with the passage of a weak front and shortwave over north Texas, the ECMWF keeps this shortwave further north, resulting in dry weather Thursday and Friday.

By the weekend, another shot at rain may arrive in the form of an upper-level trough over northern Mexico. At this time, it is too early to say how much of an impact this will have on our ambient weather. If this trough is too far south, most areas would likely remain dry Saturday, but if it is a bit further north as the ECMWF has been advertising, then scattered showers are a better bet on Saturday. Much cooler temperatures are forecast for highs Saturday and Sunday as a front may bring an even cooler airmass into the picture, making it feel very Fall-like for the first full weekend of November.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

CIGs areawide are improving to MVFR/VFR as clouds lift and erode, with VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon. Winds remain out of the south and southeast today, but an approaching cold front tonight will bring a shift to northwest/north winds. Scattered showers will accompany the front. Likelihood of isolated TSRA is highest near KERV/KBMQ around 09Z. Storms should weaken as they move east towards KAUS/KSAT, but a lingering lightning threat extends east towards both terminals. Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions are expected just ahead of and along the front before skies rapidly clear post-front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 68 76 55 76 / 80 50 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 77 50 76 / 70 60 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 78 52 76 / 60 70 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 73 51 73 / 80 20 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 77 54 76 / 50 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 75 50 75 / 90 40 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 79 51 77 / 70 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 77 51 76 / 60 70 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 78 53 77 / 20 60 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 78 53 76 / 70 50 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 70 78 55 77 / 60 60 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.