textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures this weekend and into next week

- Low to medium chances for rain Tuesday into Tuesday night

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A weak backdoor cold front has slowly pushed into our Central Texas counties early this afternoon, it should lift back north as a weak warm front later this afternoon as southerly flow takes hold due to surface low pressure emerging over the Central High Plains. We don't expect any impacts from this. Otherwise expect a fairly quiet evening tonight as the upper level ridge remains over us. As that happens we should see strong upper level flow across our area helping to bring an increase in clouds and moisture allowing temps to remain mild overnight with many remaining in the upper 40s to low 50s. Additionally, the only main concern would be the development of patchy to areas of dense fog mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor. Sunday we see high temps dip a bit due to the increased cloud cover out ahead of the next system that's located over the Baja Peninsula. Even with the filtered sunshine highs should easily reach the mid to upper 70s. Sunday evening and overnight lows shouldn't drop much due to the continued southerly low level flow and increasing clouds overnight with many remaining in the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1219 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Eventually this system makes its way east across northern Mexico and into Texas by mid to late Monday. Both the GFS and Euro have come into much better agreement this forecast cycle. However, this latest run has delayed the onset of precipitation by a good 6 hours and it now looks to be not until Tuesday evening that we see more widespread precip fill into the area. Since this is the first signal from both global models we have decided to keep the timing of the pops as is until we see further continuance and consistency in and among the next few model runs.

Another confidence nudge regarding this possible slowdown of our system is much deeper and stronger troughing in the east as depicted per the recent runs of the AIGFS and EC-AIFS models. Both of these are continuing to show stronger troughing in the east allowing the ridge to remain over us and get squeezed by the deep troughing developing in the western CONUS. The NBM seems to have also picked up on this with highs that were forecast in the 70s just yesterday are now forecast to be in the low to possible mid 80s for Wednesday and especially Thursday. Looking ahead, upper level ridging tries to reestablish itself before the trough located to our west tries to eject a upper level low towards our area sometime either Friday/Saturday. Stay tuned as details continue to be ironed out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Only some high clouds and a few mid clouds are expected through Sunday evening. Isolated pockets of fog are possible to the distant east of SSF and AUS, but we don't think there is enough wind to transport suffecient Gulf moisture, at least not for tonight. Evening light to moderate breezes are mostly SE, but should be mostly SSW by sunrise, save for maybe DRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 48 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 48 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 50 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 80 50 77 53 / 0 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 49 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 81 47 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 48 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 81 49 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 81 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.