textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to medium rain chances this afternoon through Wednesday morning.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the next week.

- Medium to high rain chances return again Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

UPDATE

Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Raised PoPs through 12 AM CST Wednesday mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country based on current radar trends. Rain intensities remain light.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Regional radar imagery shows quite of bit of reflectivity, but how much of this precip is reaching the ground is up for debate. Western areas will be favored for some light accumulations of less than 1/10th of an inch this afternoon through early evening before rainfall shifts east into the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains this evening through Wednesday morning. Totals between 1/10th and 1/4th of an inch are most likely with this activity overnight. Upper level support will be rather weak as a mid- level low has opened up more over the region rather than remaining compact. Nevertheless, drizzle and light rain is expected along with low clouds and some patchy fog the next 24 hours.

Temperatures will remain above normal despite cloud cover and abundant moisture. Highs top out in the low to mid 70s today and again on Wednesday. Any rain should exit the area by late Wednesday morning, but may linger over the southern Coastal Plains into the early afternoon hours. An afternoon mix of clouds and sun is expected Wednesday after morning overcast conditions. Wednesday night is expected to remain mild with lows in the 50s along with scattered clouds.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Mid-level ridging will develop in the wake of the departing shortwave Wednesday and Thursday, sending high temperatures back into the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday and Friday. Our next shot at meaningful rainfall arrives Friday night through Saturday afternoon as an upper-level trough digs over the Baja of California. Unlike the current system, this storm system will have sufficient deep layer shear to spark off showers and thunderstorms starting as early Friday night out west, and pushing east Saturday morning. Moisture return ahead of this trough will be substantial, and with NBM probabilities of Mean CAPE greater than 500 J/kg around 40-60% from the I-35 Corridor and east, ML lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/km, and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-60 kts, there is a low threat for some strong to severe storms as a front moves across the region from west to east. Rainfall amounts will be highest towards the Austin metro and northern Hill Country, between 1/4 and 3/4 of an inch. As this frontal boundary will be more Pacific in origin, little to no temperature change is expected behind it. Ridging will once again follow behind this system, with temperatures remaining above normal into the start of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Low confidence aviation forecast for the next 18 hours, but significant impacts are not expected. CIGs are expected to generally trend to MVFR with greater confidence for KAUS/KSAT and vicinity after 09Z. IFR is highly uncertain and kept out of 00Z TAFs, but will need to continue monitoring especially for KSAT/KSSF around 09Z-12Z. Areas of weak and intermittent -SHRA are possible mainly through 06Z regionwide, but confidence is low on timing. PROB30s are indicated when atmosphere best favors rain reaching the ground. Light to variable winds prevail for most areas this evening. A weak front will bring prevailing northerlies by 12Z but winds remain below 10 kt. Lowest CIGs in the next 24 hours are mainly clustered around this frontal passage. Expect improvement to VFR Wednesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 57 74 54 79 / 30 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 76 53 80 / 30 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 75 54 79 / 30 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 52 71 51 77 / 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 54 77 58 82 / 30 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 55 74 52 79 / 30 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 54 77 54 80 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 57 76 54 80 / 30 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 76 56 80 / 30 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 59 74 56 79 / 30 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 59 76 58 80 / 30 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.