textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average high temperatures through the end of the week

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions possible most days due to low minimum humidities and moderate southerly winds especially along the Rio Grande.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A weak frontal boundary is forecast to push across parts of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country before dawn. The boundary pushes down into the I-35 Corridor extending approximately from Georgetown to Boerne to Del Rio by around noon time. The front stays there for most of the afternoon and then pushes back to the north late afternoon and evening. Low level morning clouds dissipate between the late morning and early afternoon period with scattered mid to high clouds moving from central Texas into our local area. Forecast Monday's highs range from the low to mid 80s across the Hill Country to upper 80s along the I-35 Corridor to low 90s over the southern portion of the Rio Grande. Overnight temperatures stay between the mid 50s to low 60s areawide.

With the front pushing back to the north and the return of southerly flow across the entire local area, Tuesday's highs are likely to get back into the upper 80s to the mid 90s under mostly sunny to sunny skies. Clouds develop Tuesday night over the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor. Overnight lows are forecast to stay in the upper 50s across the Hill Country and 60s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Dry and warm conditions continue for Wednesday and Thursday. By midday Friday, a cold front is forecast to push across the local area. Temperatures are forecast to be cooler in the wake of the front, however, they remain above average with mid to upper 80s across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country and 90s elsewhere. Medium range and ensemble models are hinting on low to medium probabilities for rain along the Rio Grande for late Friday night into Saturday morning. For this forecast package, keeping dry conditions, however, we could begin introducing PoP for the next forecast package if models continue this trend. Much cooler for Saturday in the wake of the front with 60s and 70s areawide. By Sunday, return flow helps temperatures to rise back into the upper 70s and mid 80s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR starts the forecast. IFR/MVFR conditions develop along and east of I-35 on a moist south-southeast lower level flow. Due to high probabilities for CIGs at KSAT/KSSF, have introduced BKN008-010 for 23/09Z-17Z. Probabilities are lower at KAUS where a frontal boundary sags south into by morning to disrupt the moist lower level flow and have gone with TEMPOs there. Mixing on a return of south-southeast flow areas leads to VFR by midday. Then, cooling allows IFR/MVFR CIGs to develop Monday night into early Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for most days this week across South Central Texas, especially the Rio Grande. Low relative humidity between the upper teens and low 20s with southerly winds between 10 to 20 mph bring concerns for any fire that starts to quickly spread. A cold front is forecast to push across the local area midday Friday and Friday evening. Best chances for rain out west along the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 60 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 59 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 58 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 82 57 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 60 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 59 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 87 55 89 60 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 58 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 60 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 60 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 88 60 88 64 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.