textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 552 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Low to medium (15-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Today and Labor Day

- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains through much of next week

- Humid conditions with above average temperatures and peak heat indices continue

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A large and expansive upper level ridge continues to remain parked over the Great Plains when looking at upper air analysis. A weak disturbance currently located over the western Gulf is noted via water vapor satellite imagery. Eventually the mid to upper ridge will shift to the east through the short term period, but will continue to dominate over Texas and our area. The disturbance over the Gulf will continue to drift slowly to the west eventually moving inland over Texas. As it does so, it will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day today. Given the continued hot airmass in place, some storms may produce strong gusty winds much like we have seen the past few afternoons. Additionally, convection will be diurnally driven and will likely wane as we lose our daytime heating.

Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees for Sunday. Monday we could see similar conditions as the disturbance remains over the area and fizzles out. We should see highs just a few degrees warmer upper 90s low 100s for most with heat indices once again just below or near advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

The strong upper level ridge will eventually break down over the northern part of the country. However, it will continue to control the weather across the southern states. We will remain under southeasterly low level flow which will continue to keep hot, moist air over South-Central Texas. Additionally we could see some seabreeze convection occur daily from Tuesday through Thursday mainly over the Coastal Plains, but chances remain rather low. Otherwise expect the majority of our area to remain hot and dry with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 each day and lows in the low to mid 70s. We could likely see heat indices just shy of heat advisory criteria (108+ degrees) as moisture will remain across the area. Continue to check back to future forecasts and remember to practice safe heat safety.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Latest LAMP guidance is suggesting VFR for the next several hours and back off from the MVFR cigs for the I-35 terminals for the 12Z period. So, I am following that trend, however, confidence is low and MVFR cigs could still happen for an hour or less between now and 15Z. After that short period, guidance and hires models bring chances for rain including thunderstorm activity late morning into the afternoon. I think the best chances for showers and storms over the I-35 airports are mid to late afternoon (showing this possibility using the PROB30 group). VFR cigs return early to mid evening as showers and storms move away from the airport sites. It looks like models want to keep VFR conditions throughout the night into Monday morning, so we are going with that for now. A southeast to south wind flow of 10 knots or less to prevail with occasional higher gusts especially associated with showers and storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 97 77 99 77 / 40 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 76 98 77 / 40 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 75 98 76 / 30 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 94 74 95 74 / 40 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 75 97 76 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 76 98 76 / 40 0 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 73 97 74 / 20 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 75 99 75 / 30 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 77 98 77 / 40 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 96 77 97 78 / 30 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 77 99 77 / 20 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.