textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall this evening into early Saturday mainly along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.

- A cold front and active northwest flow aloft brings another chance for fairly widespread precipitation Sunday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A closed low at 500mb centered over northern Mexico will slide east today into southwest Texas by early evening. This will result in a favorable setup for showers and storms this afternoon through tonight. The latest HREF members show the primary concern being convection developing over the Mexican side of the Rio Grande and pushing into south central Texas late this afternoon/early evening. SPC has this area in a Marginal risk for severe storms which is generally along and south of Highway 90 and west of I-37. This is where the bulk of hi-res guidance is favoring storm development today. Elsewhere, we will carry low end PoPs from 12Z-18Z along and east of the I-35 Corridor for some morning streamer showers. Any storms that develop out west this afternoon would pose a risk for all severe hazards, but large hail is the primary concern given MUCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg.

Some lingering are expected through midday Saturday, but the afternoon actually could be quiet for most areas, particularly west of I-35. We should actually get some decent breaks in clouds on Saturday afternoon and surface temperatures should respond accordingly, warming into the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

On Sunday, another cold front, this time a weaker one, will move through south central Texas as a second shortwave embedded within northwest flow aloft swings through. This will bring another good chance at showers and storms, primarily Sunday afternoon and early evening. Things should start to dry out on Monday as northeasterly flow behind the departing frontal boundary ramps up. Slightly cooler temperatures, generally in the lower 80s, are expected Monday in the wake of the front. Afternoon sunshine should also prevail. Tuesday through the remainder of the forecast looks quiet as weak ridging sets up over the region. Our active pattern will likely continue through the middle of May as CPC 6-10 and 8-14 outlooks highlight continued above normal chances for rainfall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

MVFR ceilings currently over the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains and western Hill Country will continue to spread east into the early morning hours with widespread MVFR to IFR conditions expected across all of South Central Texas by sunrise. Some areas of BR or -DZ are possible from the I-35 corridor and areas east this morning, then low chances (10 to 20 percent) for precipitation are seen during the day. Given these low probabilities, have excluded the mention of any precipitation during the afternoon hours and only included PROB30 groups after 00Z Saturday for all sites except KAUS as the best rain chances remain in the west and southern portions of the area. While conditions may briefly improve to VFR in the afternoon for I-35 terminals, newer guidance suggests MVFR conditions remaining through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 79 69 86 70 / 20 30 40 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 70 86 69 / 20 30 40 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 79 69 86 68 / 20 30 30 10 Burnet Muni Airport 78 66 85 67 / 20 20 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 67 87 69 / 20 30 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 79 68 85 68 / 20 20 40 10 Hondo Muni Airport 80 69 85 68 / 20 30 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 80 69 86 69 / 20 30 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 70 84 69 / 30 40 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 70 86 70 / 20 30 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 80 71 86 70 / 20 40 30 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.