textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through the work week, but a chilly weekend possible.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1233 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

An upper ridge remains in control over TX, but falling heights over the western CONUS will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient over west and central TX. Locally elevated fire weather conditions will be found around Del Rio and areas NW, but most areas should see higher RH values with dew points no lower than the upper 40s. Moisture return will be more advanced into the Hill Country, and the MOS guidances are flagging the area for fog potential. We don't see the winds decoupling fully, so it will probably be more of a low ceiling issue and perhaps some fog in the higher terrain. The breeziest day looks to be setting up for Tuesday when a shortwave in the broader trough to the west ejects into the Central Plains. The high plains surface low presses east during the day leaving mixing layer winds to become a little more out of the SW which will add to the warming trend. Some mid morning gusts over the northern Hill Country might pick up to 35 mph. Morning clouds could keep the Hill Country highs from being impacted by the wind direction, but if the clouds clear up early in the day, we might need to bump all areas into the 80s to near 90.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1258 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The upper pattern over TX becomes flatter midweek with the shallow base of a longwave trough sitting roughly over the border between Mexico and the SW CONUS. Shortwaves look to pass well north of TX, so the impact on the southerlies look to be more in line with typical spring-like persistence days of 10-20 mph winds with some higher gusts. A dry-line is able to mix east into the Hill Country and Rio Grande Plains Wednesday and Thursday, but the moisture advances back NW each night. There could be some elevated Fire Weather concerns here, but the winds on the backside of a dry-line may be on the lighter side.

By Friday, the 12Z GFS indicates a vigorous shortwave gets a larger impact on TX by moving into KS/OK and bringing a Pacific front into our western counties late Friday, but quickly followed up by a stronger front early Saturday. This will likely be the most active pattern for fire weather.

Model run-to-run trends on the polar front are turning more in favor of this more amplified pattern leading to sharper cooling potential over the weekend. However, there remain some stalwarts among the global ensemble members holding onto the warmer air. Thus will wait another day before attempting to outguess the model blend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR flight conditions continue into this evening under clear skies and a light to moderate south-southeasterly flow. The gusts will trend the highest this afternoon along the Rio Grande, including KDRT. Low clouds then develop overnight into Tuesday morning with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected. Some minor visibility restriction could be possible but the latest guidance suggests that stratus would be more preferred compared to fog development as winds are looking less likely to become near or completely calm. Conditions return to VFR by midday Tuesday and winds will pick up to breezy levels going into and through Tuesday afternoon with the gusts around 25 kt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 55 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 53 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 53 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 53 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 55 85 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 51 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 53 82 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 55 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 56 84 60 82 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.