textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer weather expected through the weekend into next week.

- Low to medium chances of rain late Monday into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A ridge aloft currently over the Intermountain West will slide southeast towards the Southern Plains to end the week, ushering a warming trend and maintaining benign weather. Tonight won't be nearly as cold as last night with the final fringes of Canadian air leaving the area, but light winds and clear skies could support strong overnight temperature contrasts with lows in the mid to upper 30s for rural low-lying areas and mid 40s in the urban cores. The first batch of warm plateau air makes its way into South-Central Texas Friday, which will mix in quite readily under sunny and dry conditions Friday afternoon into the mid 70s to low 80s. A weak but mostly dry westerly flow Friday is forecast to drive relative humidity values down to below 20% for much of the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Southerly flow returns at the surface on Saturday in response to slight pressure falls over the Central Plains, leading to steadily increasing moisture heading into early next week. Southerly to southwesterly 850-700mb flow supports continued advection of warm plateau air over our area, so highs this weekend should remain in the 70s to low 80s.

Early next week, our attention turns to the southern stream upper low currently off the Baja California. This system will be doing a delicate dance with troughing over the northern Pacific, with vorticity wobbling east towards our area. Mid- to upper-level clouds associated with this system should start streaming overhead Sunday, but the current model consensus holds off rain chances until about late Monday through Tuesday when the disturbance ejects across the area as a shortwave trough. The most favored period for rain is Tuesday, but some model solutions slow the system to Wednesday. While there is large spread in the timing of the rain, deterministic outputs suggest that the window for rain will be relatively brief as the system moves out quickly with dry air spreading behind. Temperatures remain warm through midweek as winds remain generally southerly through the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions are in store at area TAF sites through the current forecast period. West to northwest winds continue through the period along I-35, with speeds generally at or less than 10kt. At DRT, light west winds continue through early evening, then light easterly or light and variable overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 47 80 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 44 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 43 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 44 78 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 40 78 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 47 80 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 39 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 44 81 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 80 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 45 80 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 42 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.