textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Steady warming trend through Wednesday.

- Low (20-40%) rain/storm chances return for the middle to end of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Another warm day is in store today as our warming trend continues. Additionally, low-level moisture has been streaming into the area helping to produce somewhat cloudy to partly cloudy skies across most of the area along with fairly breezy southerly winds. These clouds should disperse and become more scattered towards late afternoon as mixing ensues and winds remain breezy. For tonight expect a pretty mild night for south central Texas standards as many remain in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees as clouds increase and become widespread overnight. Tuesday we ramp up a few degrees more along with increasing humidity so it will feel much warmer and muggier out than the past couple days. Actual air temps should approach the low 90s north with mid 90s south pushing heat index values or the "feels like temperature into the upper 90s to low 100s. Definitely take breaks and drink plenty of water if outside.

A deep trough out across the southwestern U.S is progged to push slowly eastward through the day pushing the dryline further east into the Edwards Plateau by late Tuesday afternoon before retreating back west. There are low (10-15%)chance pops in the forecast for these areas however we should remain firmly capped throughout the day so most areas will likely stay dry. At the same time a weak impulse is progged to move across and this could provide enough forcing to erode the cap by Tuesday evening. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms would be possible with perhaps some large hail in the stronger storms but confidence continues to remain low as short term models usually struggle with these small scale features.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

By Wednesday another warm day is in store with most topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. We could see a better opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as the dryline progresses all the way to the the I-35 Corridor. We should remain dry during the day as capping once again takes hold. By Wednesday evening is when many areas could see somewhat higher probabilities for storms as a cold front comes in from the north behind the dryline. This should give better forcing for showers and storms to develop. Behind this front temps will cool down with highs only reaching the low 70s with lows Thursday night in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Details beyond this timeframe continue to remain uncertain. This is due largely in part to what happens with the upper level low and the deep trough located over the western U.S and southern California. Global models each have a different solution with the Euro showing a cut-off low opening up into a wave as it moves across our area. The GFS on the other hand keeps the low in tact and spreads pieces of energy rippling towards our area through the weekend before the low finally moves across TX. The GFS solution would favor more prolonged periods of rain whereas the Euro would be a more quick hitting rain event and thus leaving the weekend dry. We continue to go with a blend of these two solutions which leaves chance pops in the forecast for the entire period all the way through Sunday. Continue to check back as details and rain chances hopefully become clearer in the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

MVFR ceilings this morning have held on quite a bit longer than anticipated, though they should either scatter or lift to around 3.5- 4kft in the next few hours leaving mainly VFR conditions through tonight. Widespread MVFR to IFR will redevelop overnight and continue through much of Tuesday morning. South wind with gusts up to 20-25 knots continue into tonight, only becoming lighter out west, including KDRT, after sunset.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 90 72 88 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 69 90 70 86 / 0 0 20 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 90 72 87 / 0 0 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 68 92 72 89 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 90 73 88 / 0 0 10 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 92 73 89 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 70 92 74 90 / 0 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.