textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather pattern through next week.

- A warming trend though the weekend with highs approaching daily records on Sunday.

- Strong cold front brings windy and colder conditions Sunday night through Monday night.

- Near critical to critical fire weather in the wake of the front.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A bit of a warm up is seen today compared to yesterday with highs in the 80s across the region under sunny skies. Southerly flow brings a bit more moisture to the area tonight which may bring some scattered low clouds over the coastal plains and I-35 corridor by morning, otherwise skies remain clear tonight. Lows will be cool in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday warms into the 80s again except along the Rio Grande where low 90s are forecast. Southerly wind may be breezy at times with increasing cloud cover during the evening keeping lows warmer than previous nights in the upper 50s to low 60s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Sunday will be the warmest day of the week with forecast highs approaching or exceeding daily records. South to west wind will be gusty ahead of a cold front Sunday evening. A dry line will be moving east across the area during the day as well dropping humidity values into the teens and 20s which will likely lead to elevated or near critical fire weather concerns over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country during the afternoon.

A strong cold front moves into the area from the north reaching the Hill Country late afternoon or early evening and be completely across South Central Texas before midnight. Wind immediately increases behind this front with sustained north wind from 20 to 30 mph and gusts from 40 to 50 mph. There is high confidence a Wind Advisory will be needed behind the front that continues through the overnight hours. Additionally, the strong wind will continue fire weather concerns into the evening.

Colder temperatures quickly move in behind the front dropping lows into the 30s and 40s by Monday morning. Wind chill values will be in the 20s for the northern half of the CWA. Winds will begin to decrease from west to east Monday as high pressure works its way over the area. Very dry conditions are expected this day with minimum humidity in the teens across the region. There could be a period of windy conditions overlapping with low humidity leading to another period of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Cool highs in the mid 50s to low 60s will start out the week under mostly cloudy skies. Cold temperatures in the 30s linger one more night, then we begin a warming trend for both highs and lows for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Clear skies and occasionally gusty south winds for the I-35 sites will continue through this afternoon. Wind gusts will ease around 23Z as winds back to a more south-southeasterly direction. Shallow moisture advection in the lower levels will promote low cloud development along I-35 early Saturday morning. We will keep a TEMPO group for LIFR in the 08-13Z time frame, then upper end IFR between 13-16Z. VFR should return around 16Z as cigs lift and scatter back to VFR. Out west at DRT, VFR will continue through the period with winds remaining from the east and southeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions may be seen this afternoon and again Saturday across portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau as moderate southwest to south winds prevail. A dryline drives very dry conditions across the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country Sunday afternoon which will likely lead to near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions. A strong cold front pushes across South Central Texas late afternoon into the Sunday evening period. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast Sunday evening through early Monday morning. Minimum relative humidity values recover slightly Monday morning but drop to the 20s and teens between 10 AM and 12 PM CDT and continue to drop in the afternoon. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are forecast and a Red Flag Warning may be needed for the period. Near critical fire weather conditions continue into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 54 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 79 51 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 79 51 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 80 52 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 54 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 53 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 81 49 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 80 51 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 52 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 53 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 81 53 87 63 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.