textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Hot and dry weather continues today and early Saturday.

- A weak front brings a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather persists into early August.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Mid-level ridging continues to shift west today eventually making way for a trough to dig into the Ohio Valley sending a weak front our way. This feature will bring low chances for rain on Saturday across the majority of South Central Texas. The timing of the front will play an important role regarding forecast temperatures and any potential shower and thunderstorm activity. Most guidance brings this feature into our area in the late afternoon during peak heating giving higher confidence of shower and storm development, though if the front slows down and arrives later there may be less coverage of showers/storms. Rain amounts will generally range from 0.5-1.25 inches with any activity, though some isolated pockets above 2 inches will be possible. Storms will be moving with the front so a southward progression is expected, though the feature may stall somewhere near the southern boarder of our forecast area Sunday morning.

As mentioned previously, the timing of the front will also have an impact on temperatures which is highlighted by high spread in model guidance for highs tomorrow. There could be a spike in temperatures/heat indices before the front arrives but greater consensus indicates a seasonably hot day with heat index values just below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Little change in temperature is seen Sunday though drier air and a light northerly wind will help keep heat index values a few degrees lower than previous days. The subtropical ridge then extends back over the area next week favoring a dry pattern through Friday. Southerly flow reestablishes by Monday afternoon with an uptick in heat indices expected. Continue to practice heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Gusty south breezes could get up to around 22 knots before easing off in the evening. Lighter winds overnight and the dry air flow today could lead to fewer clouds, so will leave out the morning stratus as CIGs as suggested by MOS guidances. A cluster of showers and storms could impact the AUS VCNTY Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 98 77 100 / 0 30 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 98 77 100 / 0 30 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 98 77 100 / 0 30 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 75 96 74 98 / 0 30 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 99 77 100 / 0 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 98 75 99 / 10 30 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 97 76 98 / 0 20 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 99 77 100 / 0 30 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 98 77 99 / 0 20 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 98 78 99 / 0 30 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 99 79 100 / 0 20 20 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.