textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- No hazard impacts are expected over South Central TX due to newly formed Tropical Depression 9 in the SW Gulf.

- Dry and slightly warmer than normal weather to resume today through the weekend.

- No significant rain chances through the weekend, but onshore flow to bring low end rain chances back to the area early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Cool dew point temperatures in the 50s will help with keeping min temperatures mainly in the 60s the next couple mornings. During the daytime high subtropical ridging aloft continues to control the weather over South Central TX with a light NE surface breeze to keep the low level air mostly continental. Sunny skies will keep highs above normal with the cooler nighttime lows helping to keep the daily temperature trends mostly steady. This arid air mass will also limit the heat index despite the warm afternoons. On Thursday the low level winds become less NE and more E which opens the area back up to some Gulf moisture return. A weak disturbance over West TX could leak into the DRT area Thursday that could potentially tap into some of the moisture increase for a brief blip of rain potential just on the outside of the short-term forecast; however the more recent models are trending toward less activity.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Up to Thursday night, no weather influence from developing tropical depression 9 should be noticeable over South Central TX. Based on the robust strengthening forecast by the NHC over the next couple days would have us watching a hurricane over the central Gulf heading northeast. The small-ish system and the tracking direction away from TX has the model data showing almost no wind impact for our forecast area, with maybe just a hint we'll see the surface winds become more northerly in direction Friday afternoon. However, those with weekend plans for the coast will want to stay in touch with our sister NWS Offices in CRP/HGX/BRO to know about the risk of higher tides and rip currents.

By Friday night we should be fully removed from any future impacts of the Gulf tropical system, assuming the track and landfall projections are within the cone of uncertainty. The weakness that moved into West TX disappears and the weekend will see the subtropical ridge build slightly over TX. However, there is another weakness patter developing to the west but further out. The Eastern Pacific cyclone Rachael, currently still a hurricane, will weaken and get absorbed into a extratropical trough, and another developing tropical low is projected to take shape and work its way NW along the southern coast of Mexico. These approaching weaknesses should reveal little impact over TX Saturday, but could begin impacting the area Sunday, mainly through a strengthening onshore wind. By Monday morning low, temperatures and humidity levels will take a significant turn upward, giving us that sticky October air that we are accustomed to. Most of the model solutions favor enough moisture moving inland to set up some diurnal convection. This tropical air mass signal looks to get more traction going well into next week as the upper trough and eventual cold front draw closer.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period under mostly clear skies. Light north to east wind under 6 knots expected through the morning, then wind shifts from the northeast up to 10 knots at I-35 terminals during the afternoon and evening. At KDRT, light wind around 5-6 knots remains during the day from the southeast. Lighter winds return overnight into Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 67 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 66 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 84 62 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 91 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 65 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 66 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 70 90 70 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.