textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- A weak front brings a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Isolated storms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds.

- Hot and dry weather resumes Sunday and continues through next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

While hot and dry has been the tale of South Central Texas weather for the past week, we will briefly shift gears today as a weak front enters our region and brings a medium chance (30 to 60 percent) for showers and thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and evening. The frontal surface appears to be tilted southward with height. An initial band of light showers is possible over the Austin area and Hill Country during the mid to late morning hours, accompanying the leading portion of the front aloft. As the surface portion of the front arrives in the afternoon, the combination of daytime heating and convergence along the front is expected to spark additional scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front.

Before the front arrives, a shift in surface winds to the southwest and west could cause temperatures to spike due to compressional heating and downslope flow off the Balcones Escarpment. If the front is slow to arrive, the late-morning and early afternoon period could heat up a notch faster than previous days before rain-cooled air reverses that trend. Given low confidence in heat indices above local criteria, we've decided to hold off on a Heat Advisory issuance. That said, there is a low chance (around 10 to 30 percent based on the HREF) that some areas farther south could see heat indices briefly reach the 105-109F range before mid-level clouds roll in.

The front will move north to south during the day, with rain chances favoring the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Austin area mid afternoon to early evening, followed by the San Antonio area and plains along and south of I-10/US-90 late afternoon into the evening. Satellite data shows a narrow zone of precipitable water above 1.9 inches straddling the front, and this was also sampled in the FWD sounding from 00Z. This could support a temporary window of heavier rain rates as the front moves through. Most of South Central Texas is expected to see less an inch of rain, but the strongest storms may produce around 3 inches of rain relatively quickly. This could cause isolated and localized instances of flash flooding. Based on the environment, the heavy rain risk is roughly uniform across South Central Texas, though recent hi-res models have shown a slight tendency for placing higher totals over the Edwards Plateau and southern flanks of the Balcones Escarpment. Northerly winds aloft will keep the front moving steadily south, so it is more likely that there will be just a single round of storms before drier air moves across the area and brings the rain to an end for most Saturday night. Because temperatures are expected to be quite hot ahead of the front, low-level lapse rates are expected to be steep and could support isolated gusty winds up to around 50 mph from the strongest storms along the front.

Expect a drying trend into Sunday as the front moves farther south. The atmosphere will switch from quite moist ahead of the front to markedly dry behind it, with precipitable water values plunging to below the 10th percentile. While the passage of the front is not expected to change actual temperatures much, the drier air will deliver a drier heat with lower heat indices than what we've seen over the past week. The less muggy conditions are expected to allow highs to climb a little more quickly into the upper 90s and low 100s Sunday afternoon, but heat indices are expected to stay closer to the actual temperature. That said, a few spots south of I-10 in the Coastal Plains and in the Rio Grande Plains may still see heat indices approaching the 105-108 range.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Despite Saturday's brief spell of rain and thunder, the outlook for the week ahead remains hot and dry. By Monday, the low-pressure area associated with Saturday's front will move off into the Eastern US, and southerly winds will return. Expect a slight delay between that switch and the return of humid Gulf air, giving another day of relatively drier heat on Monday before the region returns to a regular routine of hot and humid days with muggy nights. By air temperature, Sunday and Monday are expected to be the hottest days of the week with the aid of the drier conditions.

The elongation of subtropical ridging across the area will secure a dry pattern for the week ahead with minimal rain chances. Highs are forecast to stay around the upper 90s to low 100s for most of the area, with lows in the mid to upper 70s. Continue to practice heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Low to mid-level stratus have moved in early this morning as a cold front dips into south central Texas. Winds will shift to more westerly by mid-morning then northerly by later this evening. A round of MVFR ceilings now appears to be taking shape for the next couple hours at AUS, SAT, and SSF Before lifting to VFR along with the chance for -SHRA and -TSRA this afternoon. Winds should turn more north to northeasterly by 02Z this evening and remain that way through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 96 77 101 76 / 30 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 78 100 76 / 20 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 99 72 / 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 101 77 / 10 30 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 75 99 75 / 30 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 76 100 75 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 77 101 75 / 20 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 99 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 80 101 78 / 20 30 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 99 80 101 78 / 20 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.