textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

-Periods of intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms is resulting in a dangerous flash flood threat that continues through Friday, particularly over the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande Plains.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding and river flooding ongoing.

-Moderate to major flooding ongoing/forecast for the Pedernales, Frio, Medina, Guadalupe, San Antonio, and Nueces River Basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Significant flash flooding and river flooding is ongoing across a large portion of South Central Texas as heavy rain with with locally intense rainfall rates continues today. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio including the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country is ongoing in addition to mainstem river flooding in a majority of river basins with impacts from floodwater moving downstream. The Flood Watch has been extended in time through Friday morning for the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau as additional pockets of heavy rain are forecast tonight. With the heavy rain threat shifting west, the Flash Flood Watch along the I-35 corridor has been cancelled.

While there may be a somewhat lull in activity this afternoon and evening, some redevelopment tonight is expected with additional pockets of rain up to around 8 inches possible favored over some of the already hardest hit areas over the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains possibly into the portions of the western Hill Country. Models do indicate that activity may be more scattered than previous nights, though any additional rainfall will exacerbate the ongoing flooding. Because of how saturated soils are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to trigger flash flooding that will again rapidly accumulate into creeks, rivers and arroyos across the area.

There should be a decline in activity Friday as the mid-level trough in West Texas weakens. However, elevated moisture will still linger over the area Friday so at least some additional activity, particularly over our far western counties cannot be ruled out during the day or overnight into Saturday morning.

Safety messaging:

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if needed.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Drier and warmer conditions return this weekend into early next week. High temperatures steadily climb back into the 90s for almost all of South Central Texas by Tuesday as a mid-level ridge builds over the area. Heat index values will be around 100 to 105 degrees for a majority of locations next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Ceilings have been gradually improving this afternoon, however SCT MVFR will likely remain through the early evening. VCSH remains and brief flight restrictions remain possible if a heavy shower or isolated thunderstorm passes over or nearby a terminal. Guidance suggests prevailing MVFR ceilings overnight into early Friday morning. Generally SE winds through the evening becoming SSE on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 75 91 76 / 50 30 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 75 91 76 / 40 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 74 90 75 / 40 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 72 88 73 / 60 50 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 73 88 75 / 90 80 40 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 73 90 75 / 50 40 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 85 73 88 74 / 50 60 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 74 90 75 / 40 20 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 75 91 76 / 20 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 75 89 76 / 50 40 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 87 75 90 76 / 30 20 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday morning for TXZ171-183>190-202>204- 217>219-228.