textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures today into this weekend, then much cooler late weekend into early next week, then warmer middle of next week.

- Near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions for most of South Central Texas Saturday, otherwise elevated to possibly near critical fire weather conditions Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains each afternoon through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1221 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The dryline has moved back northwest of most of South Central Texas except for portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande, though it will move northwest of those areas early this morning. Areas of low clouds with patchy to areas of fog, some locally dense, is expected early this morning. Will monitor for a possible Dense Fog Advisory. Another mid level impulse in the flow over the Plains will send the dryline back across our area reaching just east of the I-35 corridor mid afternoon. This and mixing with warm mid level air results in the warmest day of the forecast with some low 90s across the Winter Garden. The dryline retreats to the northwest, though lingers across portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande tonight through Friday. A moist airmass and associated cloudiness remain through the day on Friday to "cool" off most areas slightly. Some models show weak isentropic forcing for thicker cloudcover over our Central Texas counties that would result in even cooler temperatures there. Should this trend hold, then later forecasts may lower high temperatures. However, expect better mixing and in turn greater insolation to keep highs warmer there. Cannot rule out isolated patches of mist each morning, though no rain is expected.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1221 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Another mid level impulse traversing the Plains sends a cold front into our area on Saturday, though warm mid level temperatures mix to the surface resulting in only a cool down of a few degrees. The warm temperatures along with breezy northerly winds will result in fire weather issues. See the Fire Weather section below for details. A deeper mid level impulse moving over the Plains sends a stronger surge of cold advection bringing slightly below average temperatures by Sunday, that linger into early Tuesday morning. Cannot rule out a few wind sheltered low lying spots in the Hill Country and along the Escarpment that approach freezing around sunrise each day. An upper level ridge, the return of southerly winds, and possible dryline intrusions lead to a warming trend late Tuesday into Wednesday. No rain is forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Poor flying with a mix of IFR/LIFR/VLIFR early this morning will erode to VFR late this morning to midday as a dryline moves across much of the area along with mixing. Will maintain TEMPOs for FG with VSBYs 1/2SM or less through 15Z as probabilities remain high. Similar conditions are expected late tonight into Friday morning. Winds will be southerly winds ahead of the dryline and north to northwesterly behind the dryline. The southeastward most extent of the dryline will be just east of the I-35 corridor mid afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The dryline lowers minimum humidities into the teens and 20s along the Escarpment into the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains today with north to northwest winds of 10 to possibly 15 mph and gusty expected. This combination will result in elevated fire weather conditions across those areas, possibly near critical over the hilltops where the highest winds will be found. The lowest humidities retreat to the Edwards Plateau and portions of the Rio Grande on Friday with locally elevated fire weather conditions due light winds there.

The airmass remains warm on Saturday, however it dries considerably with minimum humidities in the teens and 20s most areas. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph and gusty are expected. This combination creates near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement will be likely be issued in later forecasts with a Red Flag Warning possible for Saturday. The airmass remains dry Sunday into Monday and lingering breezy winds maintain elevated to near critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 85 57 75 58 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 56 74 58 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 81 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 55 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 54 72 56 / 0 0 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 86 58 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 57 77 58 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 60 78 61 / 10 0 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 60 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 61 81 60 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.