textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Flood Watch continues until 1 PM today for the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains, including Val Verde, Edwards, Kinney, Maverick, Real, and Uvalde Counties.

- Rain chances continue through Saturday afternoon, mainly north of US Highway 90, with a drying trend for the evening Halloween festivities.

- Warmer afternoons with rain free conditions Sunday and Monday in advance of a cold front Tuesday, that possibly brings a line of showers and storms to most areas.

- A drier airmass arrives into mid to late next week behind front with cooler mornings and mild but pleasant afternoons.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Ample deep layer moisture continues to be in place across South- Central Texas with the corridor of highest PWATs aligned along the Rio Grande with values at around 2 inches. This moisture coupled with shortwave energy aloft in the southwesterly flow with ties back to Vance, results in continued rain across the region. We'll see additional rounds of rain that consist of mostly steady light to moderate stratiform activity with little, if any, lightning due to very little instability over the region. Despite little instability, a couple mini-supercellular cells were able to organize yesterday evening with low-level shear values of around 25 kts and storm relative helicity up to 150 m2/s2 in the lowest km. These cells produced a couple tornado reports across Uvalde and Kinney counties. While the low-level jet intensifies into this morning, the overall organization of the mini low-topped cells have declined during the past several hours.

The low-level jet intensification, however, as seen on several of the short term guidance looks to possibly help to slightly enhance activity and/or rain rates through the latter half of the overnight into this morning, especially across the Flood Watch area. This would be where the greatest concern for flooding would result as a corridor from Val Verde/Kinney County east-northeast toward western portions of Real and Uvalde counties has already picked up 2 to 5 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. The latest 00Z HREF LPMM (local probability match mean) QPF guidance, still is painting an additional 2 to 4 inches, perhaps isolated higher amounts of rain with any training over a similar corridor. This rain then pivots east-northeastward later today into this evening, including through the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. The 00Z HREF LPMM guidance shows of up to another 0.5 to 1.0 inches of additional rain on the average in these areas with a few spots receiving slightly higher amounts. The stronger lift and highest rain chances then shift northward later tonight into Saturday but enough lingering moisture and weak energy aloft remains to keep scattered shower chances in the forecast. This activity will be less steady with more drier periods in-betweeen. The rain chances then look to cutoff late afternoon into the evening and should give way to rain free conditions for the Halloween festivities.

Clouds and rain cooled air will keep the daytime highs today in the mid 60s to the mid 70s across most locations. The clouds and humid keep temperatures at night only in the low to mid 60s as well. On Saturday with less of a steady rain, should see highs reach back upwards into the 70s and low 80s for most locations.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Fair but warmer weather makes a return for Sunday and Monday with some ridging aloft in-between storm systems. Temperatures return to the mid to upper 80s for most locations that are outside from the Hill Country with greater sunshine. The Hill Country trends more in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows, though, remain warm and humid, in the mid to upper 60s with low clouds arriving from the overnight into each morning.

The latest medium range guidance remains in better alignment on the mid-level pattern with a storm system that will develop coming off the Rockies and move into the Southern Plains during Monday into Tuesday. This system advances a cold front through the region sometime during the first half of Tuesday. This front has a continued signal on bringing a potential line of showers and storms along it and we'll continue to monitor for the possibility of some strong storms with the combination of some adequate shear and instability.

Moderate northwesterly winds following the front's passage helps to usher in a drier airmass for mid to late next week. This yields to cooler mornings and mild but comfortable afternoons.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers will continue off and on through most the next TAF period at all airports. The ceiling at DRT will start at MVFR and drop to IFR after sunrise and then back up to MVFR by mid-afternoon. The San Antonio terminals are VFR and will drop to MVFR by late morning and IFR around noon. AUS is VFR and drop to MVFR by mid- afternoon and IFR by early evening. Winds will be mostly easterly at less than 10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 63 79 66 / 60 50 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 62 79 63 / 60 50 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 62 80 65 / 70 50 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 60 75 62 / 70 50 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 64 78 67 / 90 30 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 61 75 62 / 60 50 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 63 79 66 / 90 40 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 62 79 64 / 60 50 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 64 82 65 / 50 50 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 64 80 67 / 80 50 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 71 65 81 68 / 80 40 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this afternoon for TXZ183>185-202-203-217.