textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for storms late overnight across the Rio Grande however many areas should remain dry

- Cooler temperatures expected Thursday.

- Low to medium (30-60%) rain/storm chances return end of the week and continue through the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Significant changes were made in the short term as the cold front ended up coming in much faster this morning. At the time of this writing the front is located roughly along and north of an I-10 to Hondo to Del Rio line. Areas along and north of the front will stay much cooler then previously forecast with highs staying in the 70s while areas south of the front should punch into the 80s to near 90. Additionally, due to the faster progression we have reduced pops extensively as most activity occurred this morning however a few isolated showers and storms may be possible but they should remain elevated behind the front. Hi-res guidance continues to indicate a lull in convection until the overnight hours

Speaking of tonight we should see temps drop into the upper 50s to low 60s north with mid 60s to near 70 south. The most recent guidance from the HRRR continues to indicate convection firing over northern Mexico and sliding eastward with time into our area in the early to late overnight hours mainly across the Rio Grande Plains. These storms should remain elevated with mainly large hail being the main threat as an impulse ejecting off the upper level low over the Baja Peninsula continues to advance slowly eastward. For Thursday we should see a drier day as we remain between impulses coming off the aforementioned low. Highs should also be much cooler behind this front with many remaining in the upper 60s north to mid 70s south. For lows Thursday night we wont drop much as cloud cover should remain pretty thick across the entire area with most staying in the 60s.

Regarding precip chances, global models have finally started to come into much better agreement then a few days ago with both the Euro and GFS showing the slower solution of a closed upper level low meandering its way across northern Mexico by Thursday night. this should send a series of impulses across our area that will help to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

As mentioned previously with both the Euro and GFS coming into agreement chances for showers and thunderstorms have increased Friday into the weekend as the low located over northern Mexico and West TX continues sliding eastward across Central TX. The main question remains is timing. The GFS continues to be a few hours slower with activity firing off late Friday afternoon. Whereas the Euro has a faster solution with activity firing off by Friday morning. The GFS has been much more consistent from run to run with the Euro playing catchup, so am leaning towards the slower GFS solution which favors more prolonged periods of rain. Additionally, some of these storms may be capable of producing heavy rainfall though it's still a bit too early to talk about amounts. Additionally, storm chances have been introduced for the weekend now as we remain under the influence of this low. Continue to check back as details and rain chances hopefully become clearer in the coming days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Still some MVFR clouds around the area, but all terminals should be VFR within the next few hours. Winds have shifted to the north/northeast behind a cold front with speeds of 10-15 kts. MVFR ceilings will redevelop overnight at all airports. There are low chances for showers or thunderstorms at DRT overnight and in Austin and San Antonio during the day Thursday. Chances are not high enough to include in the TAFs at the Austin and San Antonio airports. All sites should return to VFR Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 61 74 64 79 / 0 10 20 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 74 64 79 / 0 10 20 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 74 64 79 / 0 20 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 57 70 60 77 / 0 10 20 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 74 65 83 / 20 30 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 72 61 78 / 0 10 10 60 Hondo Muni Airport 65 75 65 79 / 0 20 20 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 63 74 64 79 / 0 20 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 74 66 78 / 10 10 20 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 75 66 80 / 0 20 20 40 Stinson Muni Airport 65 75 66 80 / 0 20 30 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.