textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will spread across South-Central Texas early this morning as a strong Arctic front sweeps across the area. Locally heavy rain is possible early this morning.

- Significant travel impacts are likely beginning early this morning as the rain transitions to freezing rain and spreads across the area north to south. Icy weather continues into Sunday morning, but travel impacts could linger into Monday and Tuesday on residual icy roads.

- Dangerous cold is forecast across South-Central Texas beginning tonight. Wind chills as low as 5 below zero may cause hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long-duration freeze is forecast for portions of the Hill Country and Austin metro through at least Monday morning.

- Preparations for icy weather and dangerous cold should be completed!

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 101 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The much anticipated Arctic cold front moving through South Central Texas will complete its passage in the next few hours while an upper level impulse passes overhead. The front and impulse are generating showers and isolated thunderstorms with some locally heavy rains and small hail. The heavier rains have caused some flooding.

Sub-freezing temperatures are now entering northern portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and the I-35 corridor. Then, the rains will begin to freeze on contact as surfaces become frozen across those areas. As a result, have started the Winter Storm Warning at 3 AM CST. The water on roads from the earlier rains will begin to freeze, as well. The subfreezing temperatures and associated freezing rain continue to spread to the south through the day into evening. However, the precipitation intensity wanes somewhat during the day as the impulse moves away keeping additional ice accumulations low. Then, the intensity increases late afternoon into evening as the upper level trough over Baja California approaches our area to enhance ice accumulations again. Have started the Winter Storm Warning issued for the San Antonio area to near the Coastal Plains at 3 PM. However, will monitor trends for possible earlier start. In addition, have added the US 90 corridor between San Antonio and Del Rio to the Winter Storm Warning for significant ice accumulations mainly across the northern portions of those counties and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Winter Garden areas for minor ice accumulations. The upper level trough moves off to the east by midday Sunday ending the precipitation allowing the Winter Storm Warnings/Winter Weather Advisory to end at Noon CST.

Forecast soundings though this precipitation event show a strong mid level warm nose with temperatures above freezing (up to 50 degreesF) keeping the favored winter type as freezing rain. However, a deepening lower level subfreezing layer and weakening mid level warm nose may allow for some sleet and possibly some snow toward the end of the event.

Liquid rainfall amounts will be less than 1 inch most areas with isolated higher amounts. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches have been observed in Bandera and Kerr counties. Ice accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch are expected with isolated accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 inch possible across the Winter Storm Warning areas and up to 1/10 inch in the Winter Weather Advisory areas.

In addition to the wintry precipitation, dangerously cold Arctic air is expected. An Extreme Cold Warning will begin at 6 PM Saturday and continue into Monday. Northerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will send wind chills as low as 5 below zero across northern areas and 5 to 10 degrees above zero across southern areas. Lows in the teens are expected most areas, except lower 20s along the Rio Grande and isolated single digits in the Hill Country. It must be noted that some guidance is trending colder than ongoing forecasts. These wind chills and temperatures are similar to the February 2021 outbreak. Remember to protect the four P's: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 101 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Although there is some recovery of temperatures, they will remain very unseasonably cold this coming week. Freezes are expected at night into early morning across most areas. These temperatures will enable any water on roads to refreeze. Fair skies are expected due to a dry zonal flow aloft.

Another cold front and upper level trough move over our area late this coming week into next weekend. This will generate another round of precipitation. Forecast soundings indicate it will start as rain, then become a mix of winter precipitation types with snow being the currently favored type going into next weekend. Forecasts in the coming days will fine tune the details.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

As of 06Z, light to moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving along and to the southeast of a strong Arctic front pushing across South Central Texas. Cigs and vbsys are forecast to stay between IFR and LIFR conditions for the rest of the overnight hours through the end of this forecast cycle. Along and behind the front, breezy north winds and gusty conditions are forecast through late tonight with gusts between 25 to 30 knots along the I-35 terminals. Freezing rain/temperatures are forecast to spread into the KAUS, KSAT, KSSF, and KDRT around 17-18Z time frame for Austin, 20-23z for the San Antonio, and 2501-2503Z for KDRT. Light freezing rain continues late tonight through Sunday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 101 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Record Low Temperatures Jan 25 Jan 26 Jan 27 Austin Bergstrom 19 (2014) 24 (2011) 21/2004/1963 Austin Camp Mabry 20 (1940/1926)20 (1904) 19/1940 San Antonio Intl 16 (1894) 20 (1897) 18/1897 Del Rio 22 (1963) 27 (1966/1920) 24/1976

Record Low Max Temperatures

Jan 25 Jan 26 Austin Bergstrom 33 (1961) 33 (1948) Austin Camp Mabry 28 (1940) 33 (1948) San Antonio Intl 24 (1897) 32 (1897) Del Rio 37 (1961) 37 (1940)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 36 22 33 17 / 100 90 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 37 21 33 16 / 100 90 30 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 38 23 34 18 / 90 100 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 29 17 27 13 / 80 90 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 38 26 40 23 / 60 90 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 32 17 29 13 / 100 90 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 40 23 38 16 / 80 90 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 37 22 34 16 / 90 100 20 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 41 24 34 18 / 100 90 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 39 24 36 19 / 90 90 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 41 27 38 21 / 90 90 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-206-208-209.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Sunday for TXZ202>205-207-220>225.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TXZ217>219-228.