textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- The early to mid August heat is forecast to stay on par with what is expected across the region during the hottest time of the year across our region.

- Mostly rain free with the exception of a low (10-25%) chance of a sea breeze shower/storm across the Coastal Plains late in the week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The drier air behind the front this past weekend now erodes away as the south-southeasterly low-level flow slowly upticks into the more moderate range, ushering in the return of slightly more humid dew points across the region. This low-level moisture will also help to begin the returning cycle for the development of the nocturnal low clouds, especially along the Escarpment, that then mix out into mostly sunny skies each afternoon. A few short term members do show a very low (5-10%) chance of a stray shower this afternoon, mainly favoring west to southwest of San Antonio. Otherwise, no rain is expected through Wednesday. There may still be some slight haziness with the milky sky look through Wednesday with the combination of some suspended smoke particles off the Pacific Northwest fires and the arrival of a light plume of Saharan Dust from the south- southeast. High temperatures return closer to average, as a product of the less dry air, in comparison to yesterday. However, the peak heat indices will remain similar or a few degrees higher with the greater humidity. Heat indices outside of the Hill Country could reach 103 to 108 degrees both this and Wednesday afternoon. The overnights will remain warm and humid with lows that mainly bottom out in the mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

A hot and mostly rain free forecast remains persistent through the rest of the workweek and the upcoming weekend. Mid-level ridging centered across the Desert Southwest is expected to bridge through Texas as it connects with another ridge developing across Florida that would extend into the Gulf. The low-level moisture across the region, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor, slightly deepens as we approach the end of the work week and during the upcoming weekend with the persistent light to moderate south and southeasterly onshore flow. The moisture and wind pattern is enough to where we'll highlight a low (10-25%) chance for afternoon or early evening sea breeze convection that may try to enter our southeastern most Coastal Plain counties, beginning Thursday. Rain free conditions primarily prevail elsewhere during the long term period. Seasonable heat continues across the region but afternoon highs may shave off a few more degrees as the low-level moisture becomes slightly deeper. However, expect for those heat indices to not budge at all and will remain elevated close to or just shy of the heat advisory criteria. Don't forget your heat safety. Warm overnight lows, generally in the mid 70s, will continue with the development of low stratus from late night into each morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Opted to introduce MVFR ceilings for a few hours at SAT, SSF, and AUS, but believe these will quickly break after 15Z. Otherwise, the forecast remains mostly the same with southeasterly winds ramping up to 10-12 kts with occasional gusts over 20 kts possible this afternoon. VFR ceilings should prevail through the rest of this forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 98 75 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 76 97 75 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 78 98 77 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 99 78 99 77 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.