textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Rain chances today and Thursday over the Coastal Plains as well as the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.

- Low rain chances shrink back to the Coastal Plains Friday through the upcoming weekend with dry weather elsewhere.

- Temperatures remain above normal into next week, with some concerns for maximum temperatures and peak heat index values near Heat Advisory levels this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A gradual weakening of the ridge over the southern third of CONUS and the displacement of an upper-level low to the west has allowed more moisture to spread into the area from the Gulf. A couple of subtle mid-level disturbances are embedded within this arriving corridor of moisture which is aiding chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Thursday. Models have tended to favor the Coastal Plains, where moisture is higher, and the Hill Country, where weak surface convergence is expected, as the foci for the scattered convective activity. A few slow-moving showers and storms today and tomorrow may produce pockets of around 1 inch of rainfall, though most areas will stay dry.

Cumuliform clouds from the added moisture and cirrus from convective development are expected to lower temperatures by a few degrees for some, but it will remain hot and the added humidity will still make for a muggy heat for the areas that stay dry. Highs are forecast to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s across South-Central Texas with heat indices in the 100-108F range for many.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Ridging is expected to ease up through the week, leaving a weakness over our region. This setup tends to be less restrictive to the development of popup showers and storms. However, given a lack of noteworthy disturbances, rain chances Friday into the weekend are confined to the Coastal Plains. A weak front is forecast to approach from the north Friday, but the current model consensus keeps the front well to our north and weakens its accompanying shower activity well outside of the region.

Towards the weekend, low- to mid-level temperatures are forecast to increase as restrengthening ridging aloft over the southwestern US pulls a continental airmass towards South-Central Texas. This may raise temperatures by a few degrees this weekend. We will continue to monitor for the possibility of maximum temperatures and peak index values near or meeting Heat Advisory criteria for areas generally along and east of Interstate 35 this upcoming weekend.

Ridging is forecast to continue restrengthening early next week, keeping rain chances low and mostly confined to the Coastal Plains. It's been a hot start to September for the region, especially with regard to overnight temperatures, and the southerly flow pattern supported next week won't change that much. Highs in the 90s to low 100s are forecast to continue through early next week with mild lows in the 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Isolated rain showers and weak convection near the vicinity of the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) from the past hour or two have faded and any lingering spotty activity across the Hill Country and Coastal Plains should dissipate near sunset. VFR flight conditions otherwise prevail through the overnight. Low clouds develop around the San Antonio sites (KSAT and KSSF) from early through mid-morning and yield to a period of some MVFR ceilings from around 09/10 UTC through 15 UTC. Expect VFR conditions to then return as clouds scatter out with mid-level cumulus through the afternoon. Some spotty showers may again develop Thursday afternoon but areal coverage and confidence is too low at this time to insert within the TAF package. Winds are to remain light to moderate with the strongest breezes through mainly the evening hours from the influence of the sea breeze boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 78 99 77 100 / 20 10 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 98 76 100 / 20 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 97 75 99 / 20 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 96 74 97 / 10 10 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 98 76 99 / 20 10 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 76 98 75 99 / 20 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 98 75 99 / 20 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 98 76 99 / 20 20 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 79 97 77 99 / 20 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 79 99 77 100 / 20 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.