textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry weather continues through Thursday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon and for Friday afternoon/evening with the passage of a cold front.

- Cooler Saturday, but the cooldown doesn't last long. Warmth returns Sunday and beyond.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mid-level ridging will remain in control through today before a surface low starts to gain strength over the Panhandle this afternoon. This will act to strengthen the pressure gradient as a surface cold front approaches from the northwest on Friday. Hi-res guidance is now within the window of this frontal passage and is hinting at an earlier and perhaps stronger passage than global models are letting on. Opted to bring temps down a tad on Friday, particularly over the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Highs will still be in the 80s and lower 90s despite the front moving in. Gusty northwesterly winds will accompany this front but precipitation is not expected.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday but the "cooldown doesn't last long as the boundary lifts back northward and retreats on Sunday with southerly winds rapidly returning to South Central Texas. Longwave troughing out over the western CONUS begins by early next week, but the trend towards any rainfall looks rather bleak at this distance. Medium range guidance is not particularly exciting and our hot and dry March is likely to extend into the start of April as well.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Low stratus with primarily MVFR ceilings continues this morning and expands towards the Rio Grande, including KDRT. These clouds are to mix out by midday to VFR levels. South to southeasterly winds will remain moderate to breezy through the period with the highest speeds occurring from late this morning through the evening hours, with gusts peaking as high as 23 to 26 kt. Speeds subside overnight through Friday morning with the return of low clouds with MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Locally elevated fire weather conditions could develop this afternoon thanks to gusty south winds around 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts and relative humidity into the 25 to 35 percent range. TFS indicates that fuel dryness is near normal for this afternoon with the help from excellent moisture recovery occurring over the last several overnights. A cold front then arrives during the second half of Friday afternoon into Friday night. The winds shift and increase out of the north behind the front. However, current timing indicates that the highest winds could occur near or after sunset. Nonetheless, potential could exist for elevated to near critical fire weather over portions of the region, especially if the timing of the front speeds up. The forecast stays dry from the weekend through the start of next week and there may be enough wind at times for additional opportunities at elevated fire weather across portions of the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 89 63 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 62 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 61 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 87 60 83 53 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 64 87 58 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 62 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 89 58 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 61 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 63 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 63 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 89 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.