textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon through Saturday as our active weather pattern continues.

- Locally heavy rainfall possibly taking shape late Thursday into early Friday across the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau. Locally heavy rain concerns may spread east across the remainder of the region on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Similar setup as yesterday though Hi-Res models are suggesting activity that's forming along the Coast may not make it as far east as it did yesterday. Kept pops in to account for this but as we saw yesterday storm's can and will likely form along any leftover outflow boundaries of previous storms making it very challenging on depicting where and how much rainfall could occur across the area. Right now best guess is areas from the Coastal Plains westward to the I-35 Corridor have the best chances of seeing isolated to scattered convection this afternoon into this evening. With a secondary area favored along the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau as a dryline/shortwave helps to interact and possibly initiate convection. We currently have some scattered to isolated lingering convection out across the Southern Edwards Plateau. However, unlike yesterday we are not under a risk for severe weather and when looking at parameters, weak lapse rates and less than 2000 j/kg of MUCAPE this suggests most convection will remain rather weak with brief gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy rainfall possible. In fact, looking at current mesoanalysis PWATS from the I-35 Corridor on east are 1.8 inches with 2in PWATs noted over the Coastal Plains. So any areas under these storms could receive a quick half to 1 inch totals. Much like the prior day we should see most activity wane before midnight as we lose significant heating.

Temps have risen to the mid 80s in most areas, we should see temps climb a few more degrees with most topping out near 90 before the day ends. For tonight it will remain mild with most staying in the low to mid 70s as clouds increase overnight and moisture remains trapped across the area, leading to a warm and humid evening.

A similar setup looks to unfold Thursday as ridging over the eastern US and troughing over the west will begin to provide an avenue for tropical moisture to continue to stream northward into our region. Thus our active pattern continues as southwesterly flow aloft remains and brings with it more chances for showers/storms as more disturbances cross over the area.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

By Friday we could see a little more organized shortwave activity start to move in from the southwest ahead in advance of an upper low that will be over northern Mexico. Questions still remain regarding the exact track of this low. With a further eastward track increasing our rain chances over the region and a westward track decreasing our rain chances to the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau areas. Models are currently favoring the more northwestward track at this time. As this low approaches, expect slow-moving storms along with plenty of moisture that will likely lead to some heavy rainfall concerns over the above mentioned areas early Friday. Depending on the track of this upper low over northern Mexico, shortwave activity could help develop additional convection farther east into the remainder of the region on Friday.

Several model ensembles suggest PWATs increasing to 1.8 to perhaps 2.00 inches+ meaning any storms that do form could have the potential to produce torrential rainfall. While the weekend doesnt look like a complete washout, it is trending slightly drier as ensembles have begin to favor the more northwestern track of the low. It should be stressed that these patterns are notoriously difficult to pin down regarding individual rounds and amounts so far out in time. We should have a better handle and clarity on this as we get closer. Stay tuned and check back to the forecast often.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An outflow boundary moving across the I-35 corridor at this time will result in isolated to scattered shower activity in it's wake for first few hours of TAF sites. Have added VCSH for KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF as a result early in TAF period. Low chance for thunder as well but not enough confidence for impacts at the terminals to include at this time. Monitor for TAF amendments, if needed. Otherwise, VFR flight conditions continue past midnight before low clouds develop and spread across the region. MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible with those low clouds. Additionally, we could see another localized batch of rain showers around KAUS near or just after sunrise. VFR flight conditions should then return toward and through Thursday. Isolated to widely scattered showers and storm activity may be possible again during Thursday afternoon but confidence is not high enough to include in this TAF package. The winds will remain of light to modest speeds out of the east to east-southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 87 73 86 / 20 30 20 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 86 71 85 / 20 30 30 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 71 83 / 20 30 20 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 90 72 86 / 30 10 80 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 72 85 / 20 30 20 50 Hondo Muni Airport 71 86 72 83 / 20 10 50 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 87 72 86 / 20 30 20 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 72 86 / 20 40 30 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 86 73 85 / 20 20 40 60 Stinson Muni Airport 72 87 73 86 / 20 20 30 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.