textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms for most areas today and again Thursday.

- Locally heavy rainfall possibly taking shape late Thursday into early Friday across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Locally heavy rain concerns spread east across the remainder of the region on Friday.

- Rain chances decrease, but continue into the upcoming weekend as temperatures trend upward.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A weak upper disturbance over southeast Texas along with outflow boundaries and daytime heating helped convection develop across portions of south central Texas yesterday evening. Some lingering convection mainly across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains region should slowly weaken through the early morning hours while moving westward. For today, the incoming hi-res models tend to favor rain chances from the coastal plains region back westward into portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Lingering outflow boundary from Tuesday evening's convection along with daytime heating and a weak shortwave trough moving out of the Big Bend region should help in the development of showers and thunderstorms. We will also keep a chance for afternoon convection across the remainder of the region given today should be a similar setup as Tuesday. Gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns with the stronger storms. The NBM suggests highs on Wednesday will drop a few degrees. While we do expect to see some cooling due to increased cloud cover and rain chances, we will bump highs up slightly over the NBM.

A subtle increase in southwest flow aloft with lingering moisture and heating should be enough to generate more diurnally driven convection across the region on Thursday. Moisture levels remain highest near the coast, so will tend to favor the better rain chances here. With continued weak flow through the column, will need to monitor the stronger storms for gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Late Thursday into early Friday we expect to see a little more organized shortwave activity move in from the southwest ahead of an upper low over northern Mexico. This will likely focus better rain chances out west across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau region. The latest NBM Pops are quite high, but may not be too far off for the Thursday night into early Friday morning period. Slow- moving storms and plenty of moisture will likely lead to some heavy rainfall concerns over the above mentioned areas late Thursday/early Friday. As the upper low over northern Mexico continues to lift northward, shortwave activity will help develop additional convection farther east into the remainder of the region on Friday.

For the weekend, southwest flow aloft continues, but with the main source for lift to our north, our rain chances will be on the decrease. We should also see a slow warming trend with temperatures returning closer to climatological normals for early June. Upper level ridging is then expected to build across northern Mexico and Texas leading to mostly dry conditions along with near normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

MVFR ceilings continue over a majority of the area and may persist a few more hours before lifting to VFR. An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms has developed over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains with little movement seen. This activity could linger into the middle of the afternoon and any outflows may lead to additional development which could near terminals through this evening. However, confidence is low on placement of any additional isolated to scattered activity and have continued to not mention precipitation with this update. MVFR ceilings return overnight, possibly as low as IFR ceilings for some.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 87 73 86 / 20 20 20 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 87 73 86 / 20 30 20 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 86 71 85 / 30 30 30 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 71 83 / 20 30 20 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 90 72 86 / 30 10 80 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 72 85 / 30 30 20 50 Hondo Muni Airport 71 86 72 83 / 20 10 50 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 87 72 86 / 20 30 20 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 86 72 86 / 20 40 30 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 86 73 85 / 20 20 40 60 Stinson Muni Airport 72 87 73 86 / 20 20 30 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.