textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Hot and dry weather continues today and early Saturday.

- A weak front brings a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather persists into early August.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The center of the strong subtropical ridge keeping the local weather hot and dry is starting to move slightly west towards Arizona. Southerly low to mid level winds will still prevail over South Central Texas today, so it should nonetheless stay seasonably hot and dry. Highs should again reach the upper 90s to low 100s for most with heat indices in the 100 to 107 range for the low lying plains and along the I-35 corridor. These conditions are below advisory criteria, but can still pose health risks without adequate heating and cooling.

As the ridge moves a little more west, the flow aloft will turn more northerly. This will allow a weak front to approach South Central Texas on Saturday. Depending on the timing of the front, a shift towards pre-frontal westerlies could cause temperatures to spike before the front arrives. The intersection of higher moisture along the front and these warmer temperatures could result in higher heat indices during the late-morning to early afternoon Saturday. Most models bring the weak front over the area Saturday afternoon. A low to medium chance (20 to 40 percent) of rain accompanies the front, mainly in the form of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chances for rain are favored Saturday afternoon and evening, subject to when the front arrives. Elevated moisture immediately along the front (characterized by a narrow band of 1.8 to 2.0 inch PWATs) could support a brief period of higher rain rates, though the progressive nature of the front should keep storms moving steadily. Rain chances linger through Saturday night, by which time the front should be exiting our area to the south. Rain amounts in the latest guidance, considering the narrow stretch of favorable conditions, have generally clustered around rain amounts mostly ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter inch. Given the higher PWATs, a few isolated pockets of amounts above 2 inches are possible.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

After Saturday's front passes, notably drier continental air will spread across South Central Texas. While temperatures are not expected to change much in the wake of the front, the decrease in moisture Sunday and potentially Monday will help provide a temporarily drier heat. This is not expected to last for very long as subtropical ridge is forecast to re-extend over our area, reinstituting southerly flow and allowing higher dew points to gradually return. By about midweek, peak afternoon heat indices may once again exceed 105F for the I-35 corridor and low lying plains. Continue to practice heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The forecast remains on track with MVFR ceilings through 14-15Z followed by VFR through the remainder of the period. Winds will remain on the breezier side with southeasterly flow at 5-15 kts and occasional gusts this afternoon and evening of 20+ kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 77 99 77 / 0 0 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 20 30 Burnet Muni Airport 98 75 97 73 / 0 0 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 79 100 77 / 0 0 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 100 77 98 75 / 0 0 30 10 Hondo Muni Airport 99 75 98 76 / 0 0 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 100 76 98 77 / 0 0 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 77 99 79 / 0 0 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 100 78 100 80 / 0 0 20 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.