textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through the week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Weak winds on the southern periphery of a surface high and near- surface saturation will support some patchy fog this morning mainly north of I-10 in portions of the Austin area from pre-dawn to about 9 AM CST. Ridging will persist over Texas today, supporting dry and sunny weather. Southerly to southwesterly low-level flow also makes its return today, setting the stage for a warming trend through midweek. It'll take some time for those warm winds to fully establish, so highs Monday are forecast to be just slightly higher than Sunday's, in the upper 70s for most of the CWA to low 80s in the Rio Grande Plains. Breezy southerly flow ramps up Tuesday in response to broad cyclogenesis over the Northern Plains, shifting a low-level thermal ridge over South-Central Texas and supporting highs in the 80s. Winds during the afternoon Tuesday are forecast to reach 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, especially for the Hill Country and along the I-35 corridor. Those winds should weaken Tuesday evening once the low moves towards the Midwest.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The upper-level ridge shifts east and flattens out some midweek, but a dry west-southwesterly flow in the mid- to upper-levels will persist. The only result of this shift is likely to be some extra cirrus which will do little to moderate the unseasonably warm midweek highs. We continue to have high confidence in daytime temperatures reaching the mid-80s for most during this period, with the Rio Grande Plains poking into the low 90s. Continued southerly flow will keep overnight lows in the mid-50s to low 60s.

A cooler airmass will be building over southwestern Canada during the week, and ensembles suggest that a portion of this air will be starting to make its way into Texas behind a cold front Friday or Saturday as the longwave trough over the Intermountain West slowly sloshes east. There could be some rain with the front, but this will depend on whether a shortwave trough is well-timed to bring sufficient moisture over the front. Chances have increased somewhat this weekend, but the lack of deep-layer moisture suggests likely lower-end rainfall amounts and better opportunities for rain farther east. Ensembles have also trended colder for temperatures over the weekend behind the front, though the bulk of the modeled temperature distribution points towards those temperatures cooling to generally seasonable temperatures. Longwave patterns such as the one facilitating this change don't tend to shift rapidly, so beyond the forecast period there could be opportunities for the cool period extending into early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Monday evening most areas, except very shallow lower level moisture and light/VRBL winds yields a period of reduced CIGs/VSBYs for the I-35 sites early in the morning. Lower level moisture profiles and probabilities show impacts are greatest at KAUS with VLIFR/LIFR/IFR while KSAT/KSSF should have IFR/MVFR. These conditions erode quickly by mid morning as southerly winds take hold. Deeper lower level moisture Monday night into Tuesday morning yields IFR conditions at all TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 55 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 78 53 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 76 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 54 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 80 50 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 78 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 54 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 79 54 83 60 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.