textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 105 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the rest of today with slightly below to normal high temperatures.

- Daily rain chances through at least Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A wet pattern is in store for most of South Central Texas for the rest of today with scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. A mid to upper level disturbance near the Rio Grande Plains is helping to bring tropical airmass across the local area. At the surface, southerly winds are present and forecast to continue through the period. Precipitable water values across most of South Central Texas are around 2 to 2.2 inches based on latest SPC Mesoscale Analysis. With CAPE values at 1500+ J/kg and mid level lapse rates, there is the potential for strong storms to develop and produce heavy downpours. These heavy downpours could quickly produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall per hour and especially if they area training (forming back to back). In addition, these downdrafts could produce wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph. The good news is that showers and storms are moving northward and not staying still. However, the potential for quick episodes of heavy rain leading to minor street flooding or poor drainage areas is there for sure. By this evening through the overnight hours, the best chances for rain shift to the Rio Grande Plains and parts of the southern Edwards Plateau.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to return across portions of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains on Sunday especially mid to late morning and the afternoon. The coverage area looks to be less than today, however, the potential for heavy downpours and wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph is there.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The work week begins with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially across the Coastal Plains and areas along Interstate 10. Monday morning could start with scattered shower and thunderstorm activity mainly along and east of Highway 183, but as the day goes on and into the afternoon, chances for rain increase with daytime heating and an approaching boundary slowly moving south from central Texas. This feature in addition to an upper level disturbance between northeast Mexico and the Rio Grande Plains are forecast to bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall across most of South Central Texas from Monday night into Tuesday night. The better chances appear over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains and then shifting to the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau. By Wednesday into Thursday, model guidance are in agreement that the upper level disturbance over northeast Mexico and west Texas lingers for additional rounds of locally heavy rain.

The upper level disturbance moves into New Mexico on Thursday evening and chances for rain drop significantly across South Central Texas Thursday night into Friday morning. Dry airmass spreads across the local area on Friday to end the wet pattern period.

Due to cloudiness and chances for rain for the next 5 days, high temperatures are forecast to be near to below normal values for this time of the year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Thunderstorms have developed late this morning through the early afternoon and are expected to impact area terminals through at least 22-23Z before quickly dissipating with loss of daytime heating. MVFR ceilings within storms is likely and prevailing TSRA has been utilized at AUS, SAT, and SSF followed by a PROB30 group used after 19/20Z. Winds should remain tame, but some quick gusts within storms is possible up to 20-30 kts. VFR ceilings return by the evening hours, followed by a quick switch to MVFR after 09Z tonight at all sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 93 75 92 / 20 30 10 50 Burnet Muni Airport 74 92 74 91 / 10 30 20 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 93 75 93 / 60 40 50 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 60 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 91 / 40 10 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 93 75 92 / 20 30 10 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 92 76 91 / 10 40 10 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 91 77 91 / 20 20 10 30 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 92 / 20 20 10 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.