textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- One round of strong to severe storms possible Saturday, with another round favored Tuesday/Wednesday.

- A cold front drops temperatures closer to normal on Sunday. Otherwise, expect above normal temperatures through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Previous updates to the severe weather outlook for today have scaled back on the overall risk across south central Texas. The better setup for strong to severe convection looks to occur on the dryline across west central into north Texas. While we could see some deeper convection this afternoon, the best chance for thunderstorms looks to generally occur west of I-35 and north of U.S. Highway 290. At least a few of the hi-res models show a storm or two developing over this region during the late afternoon and early evening. The highest rain chances for today will be placed across Llano and Burnet counties for this afternoon. While the dryline may briefly surge into western Val Verde county this afternoon, models are reluctant to develop any convection that far south. We will monitor this area for a stray storm as the sharp dryline encounters daytime heating. For tonight, southerly flow in the lower levels remains intact leading to another round of very mild low temperatures in the lower 60s to near 70 degrees. Some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible given a fairly stout low-level jet and some weak disturbances embedded in the southwest flow aloft.

On Saturday, southwest flow aloft remains intact as an upper low drops southward into the northern Baja peninsula. SPC maintains a broad level 2 of 5 risk for severe storms across south central Texas. While we do expect a good chance for showers and storms, suspect we will need every bit of daytime heating along with lift from a cold front to prime the atmosphere for convection. Suspect the threat for large hail will remain closer to the Rio Grande plains where some breaks in the afternoon cloud cover will enhance the instability. Farther to the east and north, mid-level lapse rates don't look quite as favorable. In addition, a deep, warm/moist layer in the mid and upper levels (during the afternoon and evening hours) will likely allow for significant melting of hailstones. We can't rule out some locally heavy rainfall as well with healthy precipitable water values (1.5" or greater most areas) along a slow-moving frontal boundary. With convection helping to usher the front southward into the coastal plains region around Midnight, concerns for severe storms will decrease. We may need to monitor the coastal plains region for some locally heavy rain if the cold front slows it's southward progress.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Surface high pressure remains in place on Sunday as southwest flow aloft continues over the region. We will keep some rain chances in the forecast along with high temperatures remaining closer to climatological normals for early March. While we do expect to see some thunderstorms across the region, severe weather is not expected at this time on Sunday. North winds will not hang around for too long as a surface low develops over western Kansas allowing for our winds to return to a more southerly direction by early Monday morning. We do have some rain chances in the forecast on Monday, but suspect the NBM is a little too aggressive at this time.

The midweek period currently looks to offer a better chance for active weather across south central Texas. For now, it looks like late Tuesday into Wednesday will be favored as a closed low upper low moves across west Texas into central Texas. We will likely see some changes in the path of this upper low, but the current latitude looks favorable for a line of convection along a Pacific cold front to accompany the passage of this system. Cooler temperatures and dry weather filter in behind this system on Thursday with perhaps a quick return to southerly wind in the low- levels on Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

MVFR ceilings improve to VFR levels into early this afternoon for all areas. In the eastern half of the region, quick moving light showers will remain possible during the afternoon. There is a low chance of a storm developing across the Hill Country but west of KAUS and north of KSAT. Gusty south winds will remain the other story in the afternoon with gusts as high as 30 kt. Winds will slightly diminish after dark but remain elevated. Low clouds then return and lead to MVFR to IFR ceilings. KDRT will be slowest to become MVFR. Rain and storm chances increase into and through Saturday afternoon as a front approaches. As a result, some -SHRA and -TSRA was added into the 30 hr AUS and SAT TAFs. Winds turn northerly at these sites behind the front with some increasing speeds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 81 56 71 / 20 80 70 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 83 55 71 / 20 80 80 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 83 56 71 / 10 80 80 60 Burnet Muni Airport 66 74 52 68 / 20 90 60 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 81 57 69 / 20 60 60 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 79 53 71 / 30 90 70 40 Hondo Muni Airport 66 81 55 69 / 20 80 80 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 84 56 71 / 10 80 80 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 85 59 73 / 20 80 80 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 82 57 70 / 20 80 80 70 Stinson Muni Airport 70 85 59 71 / 10 80 90 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.