textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Dry weather with temperatures at or above normal through Friday.

- Rain chances return to the Rio Grande plains late Friday, then spread east across the remainder of the region Saturday and Sunday.

- Temperatures trending much cooler for early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Outside of some low clouds trying to develop along the Rio Grande, skies are clear across south central Texas this afternoon. Temperatures are still on track to peak in the 70s for most of the region. Skies should remain clear tonight, with perhaps some late night/early morning clouds near or just west of the Rio Grande. Look for overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s along with light winds. High temperatures on Friday should peak in the 70s again for most areas as winds gradually return to a more southeasterly to easterly direction. Some afternoon gusty conditions will be possible along the Rio Grande. Some mid and high level clouds will move in from the west during the daytime hours, along with overnight low cloud development out west across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. An approaching upper level trough combined with a return of the low-level jet will allow for some showers to develop late Friday night into early Saturday morning across the Rio Grande plains.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

On Saturday, the above mentioned upper level trough axis slowly moves from west to east across the region. While we continue to see some differences in the operational GFS (stronger trough) and ECMWF (weaker), we should see enough moisture and lift to yield a good chance for rain, especially late Saturday through Sunday afternoon. With a decent chance for rain and increasing cloud cover, look for highs in the 60s to near 70 degrees on Saturday. The high temperature forecast for Sunday will be tricky as most models indicate a front remaining to our north. However, given the trends of the ECMWF in showing a stronger frontal push on Sunday, we have opted to lower highs across portions of the northern Hill Country into the I-35 corridor. If the cooler ECMWF verifies, we will need to lower highs much farther south, perhaps as far south as I-10 in subsequent forecasts. Rain chances taper off Sunday night as the upper level system slides east of the region. Given the continued eastward movement of this upper system, rainfall amounts will be lower along the Rio Grande, with near 1/4" expected, while farther east into the coastal plains and Highway 77 corridor, up to 1.5" will be possible.

Highs on Monday will be much cooler, with lower 50s to lower 60s in the current forecast. With plenty of clouds and cold air advection, suspect we will need to lower highs downward, with perhaps some upper 40s in the Hill Country. The cool temperatures will linger into Tuesday with surface high pressure in place and plenty of cloud cover. Winds will begin to transition to a more east to southeasterly direction for Wednesday into Thursday as broad southwest flow aloft sets up over the region. This in addition to the subtropical jet overhead will return some low precipitation chances to the forecast for most areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

High pressure over the area will keep winds light and maintain VFR conditions through Friday night. Skies should remain clear. At KDRT, an 8-10 kt southeast prevailing wind should establish by around 16Z and hold steady through Friday afternoon. Elsewhere, winds will remain light and largely below 6 kt. Winds at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF through Friday will likely have variable wind directions with only subtle hints of a prevailing direction.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 53 75 51 67 / 0 0 0 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 50 76 48 69 / 0 0 0 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 76 50 69 / 0 0 0 30 Burnet Muni Airport 50 73 49 64 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 55 73 56 69 / 0 0 40 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 50 73 48 66 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 49 75 52 69 / 0 0 0 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 50 77 49 70 / 0 0 0 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 50 77 50 70 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 76 52 69 / 0 0 0 30 Stinson Muni Airport 53 77 54 71 / 0 0 0 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.