textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

- Low chances (15-30%) for showers or storms across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau from Sunday night into Tuesday.

- Stray chances (5-15%) for rain across the rest of the region through next week with most staying dry.

- Above average temperatures continue into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Oppressive heat and the subtropical ridge continues over South Central TX with more above normal min/max temperatures expected. Onshore flow will be enhanced slightly over the next 36 hours as upper troughing advances east from the southern Rockies into West TX by Sunday. While the ridge axis holds steady over the central and eastern part of the state, leading to near record maximums today and Sunday, the western counties could see a bit more wind and cloud cover to put some space between the daily record high and what's in the forecast, especially on Sunday. Overnight lows will continue to be warm and in the 70s. By Sunday evening the upper level winds become more westerly over Central TX while a pocket of mid level moisture comes together over West Central TX, the Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. This might be enough instability for a few overnight showers and thunderstorms to form over our NW counties.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Despite some of the increased troughiness out west, the mid level ridge holds its ground and corrals the instability over the higher terrain Monday. The ridge does weaken slightly but it position directly overhead helps keep temperatures persistent with those on Sunday. A weak front crosses the Red River Monday and stalls over West Central TX by Tuesday. This persistent pattern of weakness to the north continues to bring more instability over the higher terrain counties with some of the winds aloft pushing more moisture south Tuesday. This gives most of the forecast area a chance for some convection, but only isolated coverage underneath the ridge and without a distinct surface focus. While it will be nice to see some more areas getting rain, the down side is we'll continue to experience heat index values exceeding 100 at times.

The upper ridge appears to be a bit stronger over the area later in the week, but there is still a good moisture pooling and onshore flow to promote isolated convection. Outside the 7 day forecast, deterministic models continue to suggest an upper ridge breakdown in the 8-10 day time-frame, but only to push it later with each run. If this trend continues, we may have to endure the entire month of September under the heat wave.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail through the period. Expect pockets of sct to few mid-level cumulus into the evening. Otherwise, some increasing high clouds arrive from the west after sunset and are to maintain into Sunday morning. Patchy low clouds are possible near and after sunrise for the I-35 TAF sites but areal coverage and confidence is not enough at this time to insert MVFR ceilings into the TAF. Best probabilities of MVFR ceilings look to remain east-northeast of KAUS. Winds around 10 kt or less are expected out of the east-southeast to south-southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 98 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 97 72 97 / 0 0 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 99 75 99 / 0 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 96 72 97 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 97 76 98 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.