textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- Heavy rainfall threat prompts Flood Watch for Val Verde County from Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning.

- One final day of hot and humid weather, then cold front arrives pre-dawn Friday with strong northerly winds in it's wake

- Much cooler air behind the cold front on Friday through Sunday with a warming trend returning early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rapid refresh runs depict a region of early morning streamer rain showers, possibly a storm or two forming NW of the San Antonio metro into the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Should a storm form near Rocksprings, it could be in a favorable environment to become severe as the LLJ influences storm motion. The more likely risk (SPC marginal, 1 of 5) will be over the west half of Val Verde county where the storms have be firing near Big Bend and moving NE.

High RH conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected again today, and eastern counties are expected to see enough sunshine to cook up to the 90-95 degree range. Dry air mixing into the region from the Gulf is thanks to a TUTT low that is moving from the Yucatan peninsula toward Brownsville. This impact will likely give the central and eastern counties abundant sunshine and suppressed (or no) rain chances for the daytime period. Farther west, the Edwards Plateau will continue to get waves of Pacific tropical moisture, but most of it remaining west of DRT through up to 00Z.

Right around 00Z, the HRRR 0Z 10/15 run depicts storms over Mexico advancing NE toward DRT which would outpace the approaching cold front. The front does accelerate S over Western Val Verde County in the 00Z to 06Z window, with most model data depicting the most intense rains for our area to be 00Z to 03Z in western Val Verde county where we are advertising 1 to 3 inch amounts and isolated pockets up to 6 inches. This focus could advance slightly east, as there are some hints to that trends in the NAM and HRRR runs. Thus we might look at this later this morning and decide that the flood threat needs an expansion to Edwards/Kinney Counties. The one thing that could hinder the rains from shifting east is the speed of the front into the Edwards plateau, to where the north winds precede the onset of heavy precipitation, thus limiting the heavy rain potential to only areas where the front and storm timing were more aligned. The rain potential drops off dramatically farther east, and earlier model cycles had large areas getting no rain at all. This has been revised to a more 30-50 PoP environment for the more populated areas of South Central TX. Most of the rain chances east of the Edwards Plateau will be falling from 06Z to 15Z Friday and is expected along and just behind the front.

Forecast time sections depict a deep layer fropa by Friday morning leading to rain ending rather abruptly by 15Z. The deep layer lines up with MOS guidance signals that we'll be in line for a wind advisory with winds gusting up to 45 mph late Friday morning. Thick mid-level clouds and strong cold air advection with minimal downsloping should lead to a dramatic drop of around 20 degrees in the high temperature as compared to those expected today.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Friday night's winds will continue to be a bit blustery, and we'll expect to see some wind chill index values falling into the 30s and 40s by early Saturday morning. Fewer clouds are expected by Saturday morning, but the winds remaining steady should limit how cold the lows will get. A drier day Saturday should allow for filtered sunshine but the cooling gains bringing lows in the 40s and 50s will lead to highs near or perhaps slightly cooler than the Friday maxes. North winds finally become tame Saturday evening, and some light winds could allow for some min temps in the upper 30s to low 40s over northern counties. Another chilly and dry day is expected to continue Sunday into Monday, with the return of a warming trend to begin daytime Monday. Tropical cyclones dancing around in the Eastern Pacific have made the latter periods hard to manage, and the latest model cycles now push back our better chances for rains to arrive with another front about 8-9 days out.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions for the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) at the time of this discussion as some drier air that advanced into the area from the east. At these locations, conditions may continue to bounce back and forth between the two flight levels. Farther north-northwest across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau are more socked into the MVFR conditions. KDRT may not improve to VFR levels until the mid afternoon. There are a few showers and storms in this region as well and could approach KDRT, where I have elected to go with mention of VCTS for now as cells to the west have lightning.

The winds are forecast to gradually subside, with a gradual turn to a more easterly direction then perhaps variable as a cold front approaches and relaxes the pressure gradient. This front will generate more rain and storms and that will advance across the Southern Edwards Plateau this evening into tonight. Activity looks to approach KDRT by 03Z, and have inserted a TEMPO group with -TSRA at that time for the site. The front then arrives at the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) near or just after midnight. The front brings a chance for showers and have added a TEMPO group at the sites. The front brings a northerly wind as well with winds quickly increasing in speed. The gusts climb up into the 25 to 35 kt range from Friday morning towards Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 63 70 50 / 0 50 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 63 70 50 / 0 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 64 72 50 / 0 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 59 66 47 / 0 50 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 67 50 / 20 70 60 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 60 69 49 / 0 50 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 64 73 49 / 10 40 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 91 63 70 49 / 0 50 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 65 71 51 / 0 40 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 65 72 51 / 0 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 67 74 52 / 0 40 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ183.