textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Temperatures to remain near or just above climatological normals through the next seven days.

- Most areas remain dry, with only a low chance for some afternoon convection in and near the coastal plains region.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A few showers are noted across the coastal plains region early this afternoon. With continued heating, we expect showers to continue along with the possibility of a few thunderstorms developing during the peak heating hours. We did opt to expand rain chances a little farther west across Gonzales County and into the eastern portions of Guadalupe and Wilson Counties based on recent hi-res guidance. While some of the hi-res members show convection approaching the I-35 corridor, we have held off on expanding rain chances into the mentioned region at this time. Will continue to monitor satellite and radar trends and adjust the forecast as needed. Otherwise, expect near normal temperatures through the short term period, with a few spots in the coastal plains approaching heat index values of 108 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The weather pattern favors temperatures to remain at or above normal through the remainder of the weekend and into late next week. In addition, dry weather is expected as the subtropical ridge remains the dominant weather feature through the forecast period. Some of the medium range models do show a weak, mid-level shear axis dropping southward out of north Texas late Saturday into Sunday. We will monitor this and see if any convection that develops to our north sends any outflow boundaries southward. At this time, confidence is too low to mention any rain chances for our northern areas (Hill Country and I-35 corridor north of Austin). Also, we can't rule out some isolated convection over the coastal plains region and may need to add some low chances for this early next week.

Temperatures appear to slowly inch upward, especially as we head into the middle of next week. We could see some heat index values nudge upward toward the 108 degree mark for areas along and east of I-35 possibly beginning as early as Tuesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance agree in showing highs trending above normal for much of the mid to late portion of next week as mid and upper level high pressure over the Gulf builds into south Texas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through late tonight. A southeast to south flow around 8 to 12 knots is forecast to persist through tonight. There is a chance for higher gusts late this afternoon into the evening associated with the sea breeze or outflow boundaries from storms that manage to develop mainly this afternoon. MVFR cigs are forecast for the overnight hours into the 14Z to 15Z time frame on Saturday mainly for the I-35 corridor. However, confident is on the low end (less than 20) for Austin, but between 20 to 30 percent for the San Antonio area airports. For KDRT, VFR cigs are forecast for the entire cycle. Low clouds lift mid morning on Saturday giving way to VFR skies for the rest of the day. The southerly wind component persists for the afternoon and evening periods. Any shower or storm activity that develops stays to the east of the I-35 corridor.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 75 97 / 10 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 95 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 97 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 97 75 97 / 10 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 96 76 95 / 10 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 76 96 / 10 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 97 76 98 / 10 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.