textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A pair of cold fronts to bring increased rain and storm chances mid to late week and cooler temperatures.

- Isolated strong to severe storms and locally heavy rain remain possible in the days ahead; strongest signal for excessive rainfall will be Thursday night.

- Drier and cooler for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A low amplitude upper level ridge has the flow over Texas nearly zonal tonight. The low level flow across our CWA is generally from the southeast. The airmass remains warm and moist. Temperatures are from the middle 70s to middle 80s, and dewpoints are in the 70s. There is a cold front moving through North Texas near Dallas/Fort Worth. The upper level flow will remain generally from the west through the short term period. The cold front will move through our CWA during the day today. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms moving from north to south through the day. Severe parameters and PW values are all high enough that we could see some strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain. We have a Level 1 risk for both severe storms and excessive rain. All severe modes are possible with large hail the most likely. Cooler air will begin to move in behind the front, and it will make enough southward progress for highs to only reach the mid 70s to low 80s in the Hill Country and northern I-35 Corridor. Cooler air won't make farther south and highs will again be in the 90s. Tonight there will be around a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms, so most places will be dry. Cooler air will continue to filter in. Lows Thursday will be mostly in the 60s. The front will stall across South Texas and keep the weather unsettled Thursday. An upper shortwave trough will move through the pattern. Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible. A surge of moisture will move in on the cool side of the front increasing PW values. Locally heavy rain will be possible again, and we have a Level 2 risk for excessive rain Thursday. There will also be another Level 1 risk for severe thunderstorms particularly over the western part of the area.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing at the start of the long term period Thursday night. The upper shortwave trough will have its strongest influence during the overnight period. and this will be most likely time of excessive rainfall. It looks like the highest rain totals will be across the Southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and northern I-35 Corridor. Friday another push of cooler air will push the frontal boundary out of the region. There may be one last round of convection pushing from west to east. By Saturday dry weather will return. And along with it, cooler temperatures. Lows Saturday morning will range from the middle 40s over the Southern Edwards Plateau to the middle 50s over the Coastal Plains. Highs Saturday will be from the middle 60s to the low 70s. Sunday morning will be a couple of degrees cooler and then we will begin to warm back up. Dry weather will continue through the end of the period with warming temperatures. Highs will be back to well above normal by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Very little change to the previous forecast. Opting to go with the current trend for storms to develop between 18Z and 19Z and for the FROPA to occur shortly before that time at each site. Additionally, have increased confidence in TSRA at AUS and SAT by 12Z tomorrow so have added prevailing -TSRA into the forecast. Expect MVFR ceilings to continue through the day today except at DRT where VFR may return after 17Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 81 66 78 62 / 60 30 40 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 66 80 62 / 50 30 40 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 66 82 63 / 40 20 30 70 Burnet Muni Airport 76 63 73 57 / 70 30 50 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 94 72 82 68 / 20 20 30 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 65 75 59 / 60 30 50 80 Hondo Muni Airport 91 67 83 65 / 40 20 20 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 66 81 63 / 50 20 30 70 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 68 83 65 / 40 20 30 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 68 82 65 / 40 20 20 70 Stinson Muni Airport 91 69 85 66 / 30 10 20 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.