textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Hot and mostly dry weather continues early this week.

- Increased chances for showers and storms mid to late week favoring the Coastal Plains.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Water vapor highlights a band of dry air spanning from the SE US across Texas with subsidence along the southern half of the subtropical ridge centered over OK/AR. This will suppress most rain chances during the first part of the week, though modest mid-level temperatures and persistent flow off the Gulf will support a chance for spotty seabreeze showers with some potential for lightning each afternoon and early evening, mainly over the Coastal Plains. These chances are less than 20 percent this evening and Monday evening, but a few spots may see some gusty winds and a brief round of rain.

The ridging will maintain mostly sunny and hot conditions across South Central Texas Monday afternoon, but the displacement of the warmest air aloft to the north indicates highs will generally be in the upper 90s for most areas. Scattered highs ranging from 100 to 103 are still expected for the Coastal Plains and closer to the Rio Grande.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The key feature we'll be monitoring this week is the tropical disturbance located south of the Mississippi River Delta as of Sunday afternoon, which presently has a medium (50%) chance of organizing into a tropical depression or storm. This disturbance is expected to be guided by the flow along the southern periphery of the ridge towards the Upper Texas coast by about Tuesday/Wednesday. Most models take the system towards Southeast and East Texas before curving north, but as the subtropical ridge slides farther east, steering winds are forecast to slacken. This could result in the disturbance drifting west closer to our area once inland if it doesn't catch the northward flow on the backside of the ridge. There is still substantial variance in outcomes, so for now the main message is that we'll likely see an increase in cloud cover and rain chances primarily along and east of I-35 late Tuesday through Thursday. Rain chances could linger into Friday, though this would likely require a more sluggish track along the western side of the current model guidance distribution similar to that depicted by the GFS/AIGFS.

The disturbance is small in size, so for now rain chances in the midweek period are still below 40 percent over the Coastal Plains. Temperatures could moderate more if the disturbance comes closer, but its stature and uncertainty result in relatively modest imprint in the average national model blend with highs still projected to remain in the upper 90s with occasional spots in the low 100s. More aggressive cloud cover or showers would bring highs closer to the low 90s as depicted in the 10th percentile NBM.

The weekend forecast hinges on the ultimate fate of the tropical disturbance, but the broader pattern suggests a general weakening of ridging across the southern tier of the US. This leaves the environment over South Central Texas more open to seabreeze showers and isolated inland convective development, either associated with or independent of the tropical disturbance. Thus, the forecast maintains low to medium rain chances next weekend, with the best chances over the Coastal Plains and lower chances tapering off towards the I-35 corridor and Hill Country.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for all area terminals for the rest of this afternoon, evening, and part of the overnight period. Southeast to south winds between 8 to 12 knots are forecast through late tonight with afternoon and evening wind gusts of 17 to 20 knots. Then later tonight into Monday morning, low clouds are forecast to develop across the Coastal Plains and move inland into our area including the I-35 sites. Therefore, I have added MVFR cigs for the Monday morning period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 99 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 98 73 99 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 99 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 99 77 99 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 101 77 101 / 20 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.