textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over Val Verde County today and Tuesday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions west of I-35 Wednesday and for nearly all of South Central Texas Thursday.

- Unseasonable warmth expected midweek with above normal temperatures continuing through the weekend and no rain forecast.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

South-Central Texas remains caught in between ridging over the Desert Southwest and troughing to the east, a pattern that is keeping conditions dry and will continue to do so through the week.

The primary axis of surface high pressure associated with our cooler weather to start the week is shifting east towards the Deep South and Gulf coast. We're already seeing the impact of that movement with a breezy southeast wind developing along the Rio Grande this afternoon, but that gusty S/SE wind will become more apparent on ridgetops tonight, followed by the rest of South-Central Texas on Tuesday once the mixed surface boundary layer is established.

A residual cool airmass will facilitate chilly temperatures again tonight with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. A few of the lowest lying valleys and drainage areas could see a brief morning freeze, but it'll be more localized and lighter than Monday morning. Ridgetops in the Hill Country and the higher Edwards Plateau should see gusts up to 30 mph as a low-level jet sets in behind the outgoing high pressure. That momentum reaches the lower terrain by Tuesday afternoon, so it'll probably be a breezy day tomorrow especially north of I-10 where gusts in the 25-30 mph range are most probable. That southerly flow will also bring along with it higher dew points, which could help temporarily stave off the fire potential for grasses and finer fuels over most areas. Highs Tuesday return to warmer territory with the cool airmass moving out of the way, with values in the 70s. Southerly flow continues into Tuesday night, shaping more mild temperatures in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1157 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A mid-level shortwave ejecting out of the southern Rockies should lead to the development of a surface low which should be dropping southeast near the Red River into North-Central Texas Wednesday. This sets up a southwest flow across South-Central Texas favorable to warm advection, resulting in temperatures rising dramatically into the mid-80s and low-90s Wednesday afternoon. The passerby low- pressure should also shove a dry-line across at least the western half of the CWA Wednesday afternoon, resulting in lowered RH and probably elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns for at least the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country.

There is good model agreement in a cold front dropping south across the area Thursday, with fairly close agreement in timing of the passage around morning to late-afternoon. Breezy northerly winds behind the front without a substantial reduction in temperatures will likely bring fire weather concerns to most of South-Central Texas outside of the Coastal Plains.

Daytime highs and overnight lows should decrease some behind Thursday's front, but nearby ridging ensures that afternoon temperatures will remain in above-average territory into the weekend. No rain is forecast now through the weekend. Heading into next week, the persistent ridge over the Desert Southwest and Baja California should begin to move east across Mexico. This will flatten the upper-level flow, which won't do much initially but at least sets up a better potential for more deep-layer moisture next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail with primarily clear skies and light winds after sunset. Winds pick up out of the south on Tuesday morning through afternoon with moderate sustained speeds and gusts up into the 22 to 26 kt range. Skies stay mostly clear Tuesday with few high level cirrus passing by.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 40 74 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 35 74 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 37 74 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 38 72 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 42 76 50 95 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 38 74 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 36 75 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 37 75 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 37 74 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 41 74 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 40 76 53 89 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.