textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for isolated strong to severe storms Today mainly north of Highway 90; a near widespread chance of rain and storms Saturday as a cold front moves through.

- Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A messy and highly uncertain forecast for this afternoon into tonight as Hi-Res models are still all over the place regarding the location of possible convection. To complicate matters further most of the area remains capped as clouds have been very slow to clear and it's possible they remain over most of the area through the rest of this afternoon. However, if we get just a few hours of some sunshine we could see convection blossom as we have 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE along with decent effective bulk wind shear. Any convection if it does form could certainly become severe with main risks being large hail and damaging wind gusts. As such, SPC has a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather for parts of the Rio Grande Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country. The current thinking is convection may form over northern Mexico and progress northeastward much like last nights activity with areas across the Southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country seeing activity in the evening. Most of this activity should wane by the early overnight hours as the trough responsible should move off to the east allowing upper level ridging to build overtop of us.

This brief ridging Thursday should allow our area to dry out and warm up nicely with many locations approaching 90. Lows Thursday night should remain warm with most staying in the mid 60s to near 70. Additionally, the humidity remains thanks to the very persistent southwesterly flow aloft and southerly level flow at the surface.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Our quiet and warm weather extends for one more day as the upper level ridge continues to influence our area. It will likely also be a bit breezy as we become sandwiched between high pressure off to our east and a Low pressure moving across colorado into OK. Additionally, a deep trough is forecast to bring an attendant cold front through most of North Central and South Central TX sometime late friday into early Saturday and arriving across our area by late Saturday morning. As this happens expect convection to blossom out and ahead of this front as early as midnight Friday as southerly low-level flow along with southwesterly flow aloft should help funnel in rich moisture from the Gulf. Expect convection to take advantage of this setup with WPC once again highlighting a level 1 of 4 risk in an area along and north of a Fredericksburg to New Braunfels to Gonzales line. Additionally, SPC currently has parts of the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather however its a bit too soon to discuss what severe threats may be. The likely convection mode could become linear thus limiting the tornado and large hail risk.

Once this front passes expect more showers and isolated thunderstorms to stick around the area through Monday as SW flow aloft continues. However, most of this activity should remain elevated and sub severe as the front will have already pushed well through most of the area. After Monday we should see the peak of this CAA across the area with some locations not making it out of the 60s for highs especially across the Hill Country. A gradual warmup is expected as southerly low-level flow finally returns by Tuesday and continues into Wednesday along with an uptick in rain chances once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR flight conditions begin the period. There is a few isolated rain showers in the region but these will fade in next few hours and unlikely to impact the TAF sites. Overnight into Thursday morning will see MVFR ceilings establish across the region with locations along the Rio Grande the slowest for ceilings to lower. Ceilings will rise and clouds will break towards and into the afternoon with returning VFR conditions. Light to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds continue with the highest gusts occurring from the afternoon into the evening hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 89 69 89 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 66 86 67 86 / 20 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 90 69 91 / 20 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 87 67 88 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 89 68 90 / 20 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 69 89 69 88 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 89 69 90 / 20 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 91 69 91 / 20 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.