textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Not as hot today as tropical moisture and a chance of convection moves inland.

- Daily rain chances could lead to cumulative heavy rainfall totals over 3 inches by Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have moved a bit farther north and west than we had previously anticipated. We have included some slight chance POPs for another couple of hours. Convection should die off quickly as the sun sets.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Sunday will start the trend towards higher rain and storm chances, but the best chances will likely trend north of our region into northeast Texas. Nevertheless, with high PWATs and adequate instability, we will carry at least 20% PoPs for most areas Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday and Tuesday are when things get more interesting. The GFS and ECMWF and their parent ensembles have started to come into better agreement on the evolution of the large scale pattern Monday- Wednesday. A mid-level low over the southeastern CONUS will retrograde around the southern periphery of the Subtropical High over the Northern Plains states, starting in Tennessee on Monday, and shifting west through Oklahoma by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, over the Gulf, another plume of Saharan Dust is forecast by NASA's Dust AOT to move into southeast Texas Monday and Tuesday. At this time, it is difficult to say how much this will impact rain and storm chances given high PWATs and adequate mid-level forcing for locally heavy rainfall. There is concern that the forecast PoPs are a bit aggressive given how Saharan Dust can impact the mid levels and dry them out and limit convective development. For now, will continue to carry 40-60% PoPs Monday and Tuesday, with a notable drying trend starting Wednesday. Heavy rain and flooding concerns are certainly a possibility and trends will have to be monitored closely in how this SAL plume evolves as it moves east over the Atlantic. Beyond Wednesday, hotter and drier weather is expected along with likely increased humidity in the wake of rainfall from the weekend and early week.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Sunday will start the trend towards higher rain and storm chances, but the best chances will likely trend north of our region into northeast Texas. Nevertheless, with high PWATs and adequate instability, we will carry at least 20% PoPs for most areas Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday and Tuesday are when things get more interesting. The GFS and ECMWF and their parent ensembles have started to come into better agreement on the evolution of the large scale pattern Monday- Wednesday. A mid-level low over the southeastern CONUS will retrograde around the southern periphery of the Subtropical High over the Northern Plains states, starting in Tennessee on Monday, and shifting west through Oklahoma by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, over the Gulf, another plume of Saharan Dust is forecast by NASA's Dust AOT to move into southeast Texas Monday and Tuesday. At this time, it is difficult to say how much this will impact rain and storm chances given high PWATs and adequate mid-level forcing for locally heavy rainfall. There is concern that the forecast PoPs are a bit aggressive given how Saharan Dust can impact the mid levels and dry them out and limit convective development. For now, will continue to carry 40-60% PoPs Monday and Tuesday, with a notable drying trend starting Wednesday. Heavy rain and flooding concerns are certainly a possibility and trends will have to be monitored closely in how this SAL plume evolves as it moves east over the Atlantic. Beyond Wednesday, hotter and drier weather is expected along with likely increased humidity in the wake of rainfall from the weekend and early week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR cigs should prevail for most of this evening at all TAF sites. Seeing some scattered -TSRA and -RA moving over KAUS over the past few hours, have added a TEMPO in to account for this. Should see activity wane in the next couple hours as we lose daytime heating. TSRA and RA Activity across KSAT and KSSF is looking less likely so kept mention out of this forecast but will continue to monitor closely. Could see cigs drop to MVFR by early morning for KSAT and KSSF however confidence is lower for KSSF so have added a TEMPO in for this. Should see VFR cigs return along with prevailing southerly winds by late morning. RA chances increase for tomorrow afternoon for all I-35 TAF sites so have added in PROB30s to account for this. For KDRT expect VFR cigs until late overnight/early am when MVFR cigs return. VFR cigs and gusty southeasterly winds should commence by the afternoon. There is a slight chance of RA in the afternoon period but confidence remains to low to include in this forecast package.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 94 77 94 / 20 30 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 94 77 94 / 20 30 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 93 76 94 / 20 50 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 74 93 / 10 30 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 94 75 95 / 10 30 50 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 94 77 94 / 20 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 40 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 20 40 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 77 95 / 20 30 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 77 92 / 20 50 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 75 92 77 93 / 20 50 20 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.