textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Wet, cloudy, and cool this weekend into Monday with steady rain developing by Saturday night

- Beneficial rains across the region with manageable rainfall rates

- Isolated flooding possible where any locally heavier rain aligns

- Dries out and trends milder mid to late week

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 103 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Refreshing today behind the front overnight with mild temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s. The north-northeasterly breezes through this morning should gradually diminish this afternoon into the evening. Lows dip into the 50s for most locations tonight but this would be accompanied by increasing high clouds arriving from the west in association with a cutoff upper low that digs south to just east of the Baja Peninsula in Mexico.

Changes occur Saturday into Saturday night. A coastal trough is to develop across South Texas while upper level energy arrives aloft within the southwesterly flow with the approach of the cutoff low from the west. With the north-northeasterly flow maintaining at the surface while a south-southwest flow develops over the 850-700 mb layer, isentropic lift establishes and intensifies over the region from Saturday into Saturday night. This initially results in the development and spread of low clouds across the area that would quickly be accompanied by rain.

The first rains are to enter the western half of the region during the first half of the day Saturday and advances into the eastern half of the region from Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. The rains become more widespread and steady Saturday night into early Sunday morning. The rain intensity remains mostly light to moderate with hourly rates, generally below 1 inch per hour as instability remains very limited. However, do anticipate embedded cells, including any thunderstorms, to have locally heavier rain rates, which could reach upwards to the 1-2 inch per hour range. There are the cells to concentrate on for any possible isolated flooding, especially if cells enter our urban corridors or when cells train atop the same areas. WPC maintains much of the region along and west of the I-35 corridor in a level 1 of 4 risk for flooding from 12Z Saturday through 12Z Sunday. However, the vast majority of the rain, remains of the beneficial variety across our region. The rains continue Sunday into Monday and that will be highlighted in the long term discussion below.

With the clouds and rain moving in, expect a bit of a gradient on the daytime highs Saturday. The coolest temperatures with highs holding in the 60s concentrate across the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and along the Rio Grande. The warmest highs stay across the Coastal Plains with highs into the mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 103 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Soggy conditions are expected Sunday into Monday with a continued steady rain for most. The rain again mostly remains of light to moderate intensity, but like mentioned within the short term discussion, we'll see some embedded heavier cells and/or thunderstorms. A risk for isolated instances of flooding, persists and again would mostly concentrate with any training of heavier cells across the urban areas or across locations that are most saturated with earlier rains during the event. WPC highlights a level 1 to 2 risk for flooding across the vast majority of our region from Sunday into Monday. Overall, we are looking at the 60 hour forecast amounts generally ranging from 1 to 3 inches from Saturday through Monday night. Isolated higher totals of up to around 5 inches will be possible, concentrating best across our southern tier of counties along the border with the CRP WFO office CWA. Conditions remain raw as well with the daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s under overcast conditions.

The storm system exits the region entering midweek but models do keep coastal troughing across South Texas. The region will mostly dry out but there could be an isolated PoP a time or two, mainly across the Coastal Plains and our southern tier counties. Cloud breaks should allow for more sunshine and for the temperatures to bounce back into the 70s for most locations. A cold front could arrive sometime late week with help from upper level troughing in the Ohio Valley. We'll monitor how the front could interact with lingering coastal troughing in South Texas, but for now the official forecast into next Friday looks to stay primarily mild and dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR skies should last through the evening with patchy IFR/MFR CIGS eroding over the Hill Country this afternoon. A layer of 5-7KFT CIGS rolling in from the west tonight will thicken up late in the TAF periods, and light precipitation could begin as early as 20Z. Winds will remain light and mainly out of the NE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 58 71 57 65 / 0 20 50 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 72 55 65 / 0 10 50 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 71 57 64 / 0 20 70 90 Burnet Muni Airport 55 67 55 64 / 0 20 80 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 65 58 63 / 0 60 100 100 Georgetown Muni Airport 55 69 55 65 / 0 10 50 70 Hondo Muni Airport 57 70 57 64 / 0 40 100 100 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 72 56 63 / 0 20 60 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 60 76 57 67 / 0 0 30 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 58 71 58 63 / 0 20 80 90 Stinson Muni Airport 59 72 60 65 / 0 20 90 90

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.