textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Dry weather continues through the weekend with warmer than normal temperatures.

- No significant rain chances through the weekend, but isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each day during the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Expect continued hot weather with highs in the upper 80s north to mid 90s south over the next couple days as the subtropical ridge aloft maintains a hold over TX. A continental low level E/NE breeze will continue today, but will shift to a SE and onshore breeze Saturday afternoon. This subtle change will not be noticeable in the short term but will add the changing trends in the days to follow. While the daytime heat has been quite the nuisance for this time of year, the continental winds have been more helpful on allowing for a more pleasant and seasonal nighttime temperature.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The winds turning to the SE at the end of the short-term is a signal for the next broader pattern change. While the subtropical ridge maintains a good hold over TX, undercutting it will be a deepening tropical flow. This pattern is being accelerated slightly, thanks to a shift in the track of now Hurricane Simon over the Eastern Pacific. Its more direct charge toward the Coast of Mexico appears to be having an influence on the moisture influx into TX for early next week. High temperatures Sunday may be a in lower confidence as this moisture arrives and probably mixes out, but by Monday, a deeper moist layer could get established, and the mild morning lows return to the warm and muggy conditions seen in September. The highs are also expected to still punch into the 90s for many areas, so there could be some heat index values pushing toward triple digits again by Monday afternoon.

On a more positive note, the increasing moisture trends, as compared to the model runs of yesterday, reveal a bit more coverage of showers and storms, with perhaps some good seabreeze activity arriving in the afternoon. This tendency gets our forecast area into a holding pattern as whats left of Simon gets pulled across the high terrain of Mexico, missing us mainly to the northwest. Not having a strong surface feature close at hand, we'll probably miss out on one of those good deep convection events commonly associated with Pacific cyclones. However, with the sharp topography over the west coast likely destroying Simon rather quickly, the fragments of the remnants could get hung up in Mexico for several days, leading to a potential heavy rain event when our next cold front is suggested to arrive about 9 days out. This very thing occurred in 2015 where TC Patricia generated not 1 but 2 well separated heavy rain events over the area from two different cold fronts. So for now the extended forecast continues with heat, humidity, and some spotty rains, but the next big pattern change may be just over the horizon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR flight conditions continue to prevail through the period. Few to sct high clouds does advance across the region overnight into this morning, otherwise the skies remain mostly to completely clear. Light north to east-northeasterly winds remains across the I-35 corridor with sustained winds around 7 kts or less. Towards the Rio Grande, including KDRT, winds become more east to east- southeasterly in direction with sustained speeds also around 7 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 89 62 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 94 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 63 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 93 64 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 65 94 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.