textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Periods of rain from today through Friday with the corridor of heaviest rain focused across the Southern Edwards Plateau and along the Rio Grande

- Passage of a cold front sometime early next week with additional rain and thunderstorm chances followed by a drier airmass featuring cooler mornings in it's wake.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Shortwave troughing in the southwesterly flow aloft, combined with added Eastern Pacific moisture and energy from Vance, will result in periods of rain, with occasional embedded thunderstorm activity. The initial activity reaches the Rio Grande not too long after midnight and pushes eastward across the Hill Country to locations along the Balcones Escarpment and I-35 corridor later this morning. Models continue to indicate a fairly steep gradient in the rain chances and amounts as a result between the western side of the I-35 Corridor the Coastal Plains through at least tonight. Friday morning into the afternoon, however, does seem to show an east-northeast pivot with the rain axis as secondary shortwave energy advances through the region. This is when rain chances seem to be the best from the I-35 corridor eastward through the Coastal Plains.

The axis of heaviest rainfall with this event remains forecast for locations along the Rio Grande into the Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country later tonight into early Friday. The heaviest activity in this axis could produce hourly rainfall rates around or in excess of 2 inches. This would be where the greatest potential for flooding would develop, including any possible responses on the Devils or Pecos River, and any nearby draws or tributaries. The rain amounts through the next 48 hours have slightly increased compared to previous forecast packages, where the Southern Edwards Plateau could see 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated amounts up to 6 inches. Elsewhere, the rainfall primarily is beneficial with the amounts ranging between 0.5 to 1.5 inches across the Hill Country to near the Balcones Escarpment. Totals then quickly drop off, mainly east of the I-35 corridor through the Coastal Plains.

The cloudiness and rains will keep daytime highs mostly limited into the 70s for the majority in the short term. There will be areas in the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau that maintain only in the 60s. The Coastal Plains is the primary exception where afternoon highs could reach into the low 80s, especially today. Lows maintain in the 60s for most, with a few upper 50s in the Hill Country to start off Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The primary shortwave exits the region Friday night and this will result in the higher rain chances diminishing at that time. However, enough lingering moisture and a final piece or two of energy aloft coming out from the Desert Southwest could result in additional isolated to scattered activity Saturday, primarily from the Hill Country through our northeastern most counties. These rain chances do look to dwindle by the evening, yielding to favorable weather for Trick-or-Treating. The forecast then trends drier from Sunday into the daytime hours Monday with some warmer afternoon highs up into the mid 80s given the return of greater sunshine with less cloud cover.

The medium range guidance continues to show some differences but are still indicating the potential for a stronger storm system that develops and advances into the southern and central plains. This brings a cold front to the region sometime overnight into early Tuesday. The boundary should bring another opportunity for rain and storms to the area. This activity has the potential to be a little more organized with stronger storms with the combination of shear and at least some limited instability. Behind the front, expect for winds to shift out of the northwest and the flow will help to usher in a drier airmass with cooler lows at least for the region as we close out the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Widespread stratiform rain with IFR and MVFR ceilings has been common this morning into the early afternoon. At AUS, SAT, and SSF, we should see -RA/SHRA end by late afternoon/early evening, but at DRT, expect -RA/SHRA to continue through the entire forecast period. At AUS, SAT, and SSF, a return to VFR should occur after 20/21Z and continue through the night before rain spreads eastward with time Friday morning. Ceilings will tank as rain spreads over the I-35 sites through mid morning and eventually at AUS by late afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 75 63 81 / 10 60 60 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 62 77 62 82 / 10 50 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 76 62 82 / 10 70 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 61 69 61 77 / 20 80 60 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 64 73 64 78 / 100 90 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 74 61 80 / 10 60 60 20 Hondo Muni Airport 62 74 63 81 / 30 80 40 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 76 62 82 / 10 70 50 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 80 64 84 / 0 40 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 64 74 64 81 / 20 70 40 20 Stinson Muni Airport 65 75 65 82 / 20 60 30 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for TXZ183-184-202-217.