textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A powerful front arriving Sunday afternoon/evening will bring strong winds, critical fire weather conditions, and much colder temperatures across much of South-Central Texas.

- Critical fire weather conditions linger into Monday as winds gradually weaken.

- Dry weather continues through next week with warmth returning by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Southerly low-level flow will strengthen some tonight in response to an intensifying low pressure system over the Central US, maintaining a light to moderate breeze mainly over higher elevations and across the Coastal Plains. This will funnel more Gulf moisture across South-Central Texas, making for a more mild night with temperatures only managing to drop into the low 60s.

The stage is set for an impressive temperature whiplash across the region Sunday from abnormally warm to abnormally cool. During the early afternoon, a shift towards more westerly flow aloft will support an eastward push of a dryline towards the I-35 corridor. The combination of sunny conditions, favorable mixing, and the surge of a strong low-level thermal ridge over the area will make for a very warm Sunday afternoon with temperatures expected to reach the 90s across the area. A few spots in the Rio Grande Plains may near 100F. A mix of pre-frontal compressional heating and downslope flow along the Balcones Escarpment may also locally boost temperatures along the I-35 corridor, potentially getting highs closer to 95F. Daily record highs may be challenged at all four climate sites, and based on the latest blend of models there is at least a 70 percent chance of those marks being tied or broken at each site. It's during this period Sunday afternoon that critical fire weather conditions become a concern, especially over the southern Edwards Plateau Hill Country where the overlap of gustier pre-frontal winds and low humidity is most evident.

The unseasonable warmth will be met by a powerful cold front arriving from the north, entering the Hill Country and Austin area mid- to late-afternoon and plowing across the remainder of South- Central Texas by about sunset based on the latest high resolution models. Model cross sections show nearly vertical isentropes extending up to about 800mb along the leading edge of the front, a clear indicator of the front's strength. Given the strong thermal contrasts across the front, models show a noticeable pressure-change gradient, likely leading to some isallobaric enhancement of winds. Winds will increase quickly with the front's arrival, with widespread sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph. At higher elevations, sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts to around 55 mph are possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect between 3 PM Sunday (when winds first enter the northern Hill Country) to 5 AM Monday (with winds falling below advisory criteria for most of the region by then). It will be a good idea to secure loose outdoor objects before the front arrives. Given the strength of the front and the impressive uplift of air on its leading edge, a narrow and fast-moving band of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder are possible along the front over Fayette and Lavaca counties along Highway 77. However, any rain will likely be very brief and light in accumulation.

Strong north winds will continue through Sunday night, though the higher-end gusts will start to settle down after midnight. Cold air will follow behind the front, bringing temperatures into the 30s and low 40s by sunrise Monday. This represents a roughly 50-degree plunge in about 15 hours, which would be one of the steepest temperature drops our area has seen in the past few decades. The blended statistical guidance even favors a few patchy freezes in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Combined with the wind, apparent temperatures early Monday morning could reach the 20s across much of the Hill Country and portions of the I-35 corridor. Despite the cold air, the gusty winds and very poor moisture recovery will prolong concerns for critical fire weather conditions through Sunday night.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

In contrast to days past, Monday should be a distinctly colder than average day as cool post-frontal air spreads across the area. Temperatures Monday afternoon will likely only reach the 50s. Residual breezy northerly winds and dry air may lead to continued critical fire weather concerns especially over the eastern and southern portions of the CWA where gustier winds are expected to remain in place for longer. These winds should settle by Monday night, which is expected to be another chilly night with lows in the 30s regionwide under moderately favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Patchy freezes will be possible in rural low- lying areas in the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor, in addition to the Hill Country.

Tuesday marks a transitional phase between the abnormally cool start to next week and a return to warmth later next week. The frigid airmass and associated troughing shifts towards the eastern US while ridging builds over the southwestern US and gradually expands into Texas. This will set up the return of southerly flow and a warm airmass over our region, establishing a warming trend. Highs in the upper 80s and low 90s are forecast to return by Friday, and we could be in near-record footing next weekend as ridging remains stout. Dry and mostly clear skies are expected throughout next week with virtually no rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Southerly wind persists over South Central Texas through early Sunday with gusty conditions mainly from the Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of San Antonio and Coastal Plains during this time. VFR conditions will continue though around 05Z before MVFR ceilings redevelop over much of the area. Did include a period of IFR ceilings at SAT/SSF with HREF guidance bullish on ceilings under 1 kft around that location. VFR conditions return late morning with gusty wind expected at KAUS for Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front will move across the area from north to south and have included strong northerly wind and gusts at KAUS at 22Z Sunday. That said, will need to monitor the speed of this front and adjustments may need to be made to frontal timing in future forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A prolonged stretch of critical fire weather conditions is expected Sunday through Monday. A Red Flag Warning is now in effect beginning Sunday at noon across South-Central Texas. Sunday late-morning and early afternoon, a dry line is forecast to move east to the I-35 corridor. A combination of 10-20 percent relative humidity, 10-20 mph westerly winds, and unusually warm temperatures in the 90s following the dry line will lead to an initial period of near- critical to critical fire weather especially for the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. The dry line will then be overtaken by a powerful cold front between Sunday late-afternoon through Sunday evening. Very strong north winds will arrive immediately and in the wake of this front with sustained wind speeds in the 20 to 35 mph range and gusts up to 45 to 55 mph across all of South-Central Texas. Expect for these strong winds to persist during the overnight. Low RH values will spread across the remainder of the region. Despite rapidly falling temperatures behind the front, moisture recovery will remain poor with highest humidity only in the 25 to 35 percent range Sunday night.

Expect minimum humidity to fall back into the 10 to 20 percent range Monday afternoon. Winds will remain breezy through Monday afternoon, especially over the Coastal Plains, but will not be quite as strong as the speeds overnight. The primary area of concern for near critical to critical fire weather Monday afternoon includes areas along and east of I-35 into the Coastal Plains, though daytime temperatures will be much lower and in the 50s. Wind speeds weaken to light levels for all areas during Monday night. Dry conditions persist through midweek with perhaps enough wind at times for elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the region. Overnight moisture recovery improves later in the week with the return and increase of southerly flow, but a warming trend and dry air will continue to support daytime RH values below 35 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 65 92 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 93 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 91 41 58 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 63 87 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 62 96 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 64 92 36 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 60 94 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 93 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 89 41 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 92 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 65 93 43 61 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 5 AM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.