textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Dry and breezy today with warmer than normal temperatures.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day during the work week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Overnight, expect for the lows to drop into the mid to upper 60s for most. Additionally, short term guidance points towards some patchy fog developing, mainly near the Balcones Escarpment across the Hill Country to near the San Antonio metro area. Otherwise, for today we should begin to see a return to more humid and hotter weather across our area as the southeasterly low-level flow will increase. It may take a day or so for areas other then the Coastal Plains to feel this change. However, it will be breezy today with winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph at times, especially into and through this afternoon. These winds will continue to help usher in a more moist airmass than what we have been experiencing the past few days. High temperatures climb into the upper 80s in the Hill Country with low to mid 90s expected elsewhere, especially along and south of I-35. Lows won't drop off too much with most areas staying in the upper 60s to low 70s as moisture remains across our area. By Monday, an upper trough along the west coast will begin to move inland. Thus we should really feel the more humid and hot airmass across our area as highs remain similar to today, but the heat indices will once again be back into the 100-105 degree range. So it will certainly feel like we are right back into summer yet again. Additionally, the south-southeasterly flow and added moisture should help to spark off some isolated showers and storms mainly across the Coastal Plains an I-35 Corridor.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Monday night, we remain very mild with lows in the low to mid 70s areawide. Likewise, moisture will remain across the area and highs should be a couple degrees warmer for Tuesday and at least Wednesday as we remain influenced by the subtropical ridge. Thus, expect heat indices to soar into the 100-108 degree range for the early start to next week. We'll need to monitor this closely as it may approach heat advisory criteria, if this pattern holds. Additionally, we could see isolated showers and storms across the Coastal Plains Tuesday afternoon and again for Wednesday afternoon as plenty of moisture remains over the area along with the return of our typical seabreeze allowing storms to from as far north as the I-35 Corridor.

By late week, we should begin to see the pattern change once more as our subtropical ridge moves off to the east and the upper trough moves over the Rockies and into the Coastal Plains. This in turn drives a cold front down through our area. Global models have done fairly poorly so far on the timing and strength of this front so it remains to be seen just how much cooler we get behind it and how much moisture we can wring out of it. As of right now each model run keeps coming in drier and drier so have went with a blend of temps and pops until we get more model consistence on how this pattern unfolds. Some models bring in significantly colder air behind this front while others are not as cool and thus less of an impact to our area. Continue to check back as the forecast becomes clearer over the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Challenging and a less confident of an aviation forecast for late overnight through mid-morning with development of low clouds and patchy fog with the first night of the returned southeasterly flow across the region. Latest short term guidance has the greater probabilities for development of MVFR to IFR conditions occurring along the Balcones Escarpment, including across the San Antonio terminals (KSAT and KSSF), into the Hill Country beyond 09Z. Cannot rule out brief LIFR conditions as well but will keep out of the TAF package at this time. These low clouds could reach KAUS and KDRT as well during the period but are of less probability and confidence compared to the SAT sites, and thus feature TEMPO groups instead of a prevailing group. The conditions improve to VFR levels at all sites during late morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, a breezy afternoon and evening will be expected with gusts into the 20 to 30 kt range from the south- southeast to east-southeast in direction. Winds gradually subside after this evening into the overnight. Otherwise, expect for the return of low clouds and at least down to MVFR ceilings at KSAT entering Monday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 70 93 75 / 0 10 30 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 68 93 75 / 0 10 40 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 68 92 74 / 0 0 30 0 Burnet Muni Airport 88 67 88 73 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 72 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 68 91 74 / 0 0 30 0 Hondo Muni Airport 92 70 93 75 / 0 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 68 93 74 / 0 0 40 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 70 94 75 / 0 0 50 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 71 92 76 / 0 0 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 71 94 76 / 0 0 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.