textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures today through Saturday, then below average Easter Sunday through Tuesday.

- Medium rain chances tonight into Thursday mostly north of Interstate 10.

- Widespread rain chances late Friday through the weekend as a cold front arrives.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

he approach of a neutrally tilted trough today is forecast to induce the development of showers and storms along the dry line over West Texas in the late afternoon to evening hours. These will track east overnight and Thursday morning, reaching portions of South-Central Texas generally north of I-10.

The hi-res models have trended a more north and slower with storms during tonight's event, and the main risk areas have tended to shift farther from our area. Still, the model consensus indicates the southern end of the storms may clip our southern Edwards Plateau counties during the overnight hours, pushing east towards the Hill Country/Highland Lakes and Austin area Thursday morning and continuing into the Coastal Plains past sunrise. Environmental parameters, including modest amounts of instability and sufficient wind shear, support an isolated severe threat with the main focus shifting from hail when storms first form over the Edwards Plateau to wind once storms begin to congeal. Instability is the main limiting factor on severe potential. The highest severe threat is closer to the Edwards Plateau where greater energy earlier in the night supports better chances for stronger storms. The SPC highlights a level 1 (Marginal) to level 2 (Slight) out of 5 risk for severe weather over those areas. The threat tapers off as the storms move farther east and encounter lackluster instability with MUCAPE values around 100-500 J/kg. Still, storms may still be producing lightning and gusty winds as they cross the I-35 corridor and enter the Coastal Plains given the strong forcing from the nearby trough and a healthy supply of low-level moisture. Overall rain totals from this event continue to show amounts mainly between 0.5-1.5 inches for areas seeing thunderstorms, though it does look like portions of our southern areas may miss out entirely on beneficial rains.

A few isolated showers could linger along and east of I-35 Thursday afternoon (with PoPs about 20 percent), though the holdouts will likely be much weaker than the earlier activity. The cloudy and for some areas rainy start to Thursday will help bring temperatures down some, especially north of I-10, though the lack of a front will allow a southerly breeze to continue and keep conditions generally warm. Dew points aren't expected to waver much and will contribute to a mild and muggy Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 134 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Above average temperatures continue into early Saturday as the warm low-level flow remains intact. Friday into Saturday, a stronger mid/upper level trough moves east into the Plains, sending a cold front towards our area Saturday. Ahead of this trough, increased moisture advection and a few weaker impulses along the subtropical jet over Mexico may lead to a few sporadic showers early Friday. Then, the incoming trough may trigger isolated to scattered showers and storms on the dry line Friday afternoon before the front's arrival Saturday produces additional showers and storms across South- Central Texas. Once the front passes, lingering showers and thunderstorms are possible primarily south of I-10 on Sunday as a few weak mid level impulses overrun the post-frontal airmass before ridging rebuilds and brings an end to the wetter period by Monday. There remains a potential for strong to severe storms along with locally heavy rains especially Friday night through early Sunday, but this will depend on the specifics of the front and the pre- frontal environment.

Much cooler temperatures are expected behind the front, leading to cooler than average temperatures on Easter Sunday with highs in the 60s under cloudy skies. Lows to start next week are forecast to begin in the mid 40s to low 50s. The return of ridging will allow for a gradual warming trend, but suppression of the warmer Mexican plateau airmass to the southwest should allow for several days of below to near average temperatures across the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the I-35 Corridor sites through late this evening. DRT could go MVFR for another hour or so before becoming VFR for the rest of this afternoon into the evening. Breezy southerly and gusty winds around 15 knots with gusts of 24 to 28 knots are forecast this afternoon into mid/late evening across area terminals. MVFR cigs return for the I-35 terminals overnight and remain through at least noon Thursday. There is a slight chance for IFR cigs for AUS and SAT as a line of showers move across the local area. There is 30 to 60 percent probability for shower activity from 12Z to 18Z Thursday. During this time, there is a window from 15Z to 17Z with the highest potential for isolated thunderstorms. For DRT, there is a short window for MVFR cigs around 14Z to 16Z Thursday. VFR conditions return after 17Z Thursday at all area sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 81 70 87 / 20 50 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 68 82 69 87 / 20 50 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 82 68 87 / 10 30 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 65 79 68 83 / 40 60 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 86 70 88 / 20 0 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 81 68 86 / 30 60 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 65 86 67 89 / 10 20 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 83 69 87 / 10 40 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 82 70 87 / 10 30 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 83 70 87 / 10 30 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 70 86 70 89 / 10 20 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.