textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Rain chances will continue tonight and Sunday. A few strong storms are possible Sunday over the eastern half of the area.

- Cooler air surges in from the north Sunday, and below normal temperatures through midweek.

- Seasonably mild weather and daily rain chances return for late in the week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Morning round of mostly elevated rains have weakened and shifted SE to mostly en the impacts of a passing shortwave moving over TX. The onset of the next round of rain is trending much faster though, as satellite and model data are bringing a jet steak diving SE into TX. Already the low level moisture has been primed a bit from the early day shortwave and enough moisture is coming together to generate some streamer convection in advance of the jet streak and deepening upper trough. The jet streak is helping to shape a positive tilt to the digging trough as it arrives, giving the region a boost in convective potential for tonight into Sunday. Initially the blended guidances, while showing fairly high PoPs for tonight's rain chances, characterized the rains this evening as just some showers without upper support or low level focus to enhance QPF. The last few hours of rapid refresh data reveals an uptick in evening activity not seen in the coarser scale models, with the RRFS showing still mostly shower activity over central and eastern counties and the HRRR runs showing a slightly deeper convective potential capable of an isolated storm or two with some cells dumping well over half an inch in a short period. The scattered streamer activity is displaying the hint of deeper convection potential with a couple cells lighting up with a 50 dbz echo on radar. Thus we'll be updating the current forecast shortly to add an isolated mention of thunder to evening grids which had none in the midday populate and publish.

As we were already expecting marginal risk severe potential (level 1 of 5) for Sunday, a quick peek was taken for this evening and tonight. Wind profiles depicted good low level shear to help the convection deepen. The undercutting NE winds will help give any storm that develops an elevated look, but some gusty winds, frequent lightning and perhaps some small hail shouldn't be ruled out. Again the evening coverage is only being adjusted to around 15 percent for the chance of thunder with most activity being a light to moderate rain.

At daybreak Sunday the base of the upper trough drops into West Central TX to set up the arrival of healthy cold front as a focusing mechanism for scattered to numerous showers and storms. This fairly quick moving system evolves fairly early in the day and works quickly across the area to get to our far eastern counties by 21Z. This early onset and fast progression should help limit the potential for severe weather to be of the isolated and short-lived variety. The marginal (1 of 4) potential for excessive rainfall should remain the primary concern, as well as the impacts of lightning ans strong wind gusts to interrupt weekend outdoor festivities.

Much of Central TX will see conditions begin to stabilize by or shortly after noon with significant impacts to the afternoon temperatures with a steady or slowly falling temperature trend. The continuation of light precipitation in this shallow layer of cold air will only add to the apparent temperature with wind chills probably falling to near 40 degrees by late evening, with all counties on the backside of the front by this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 120 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Monday continues the significant cold air advection pattern with lots of low cloud cover and perhaps a early day round of light rain or drizzle to help add to the chill. Monday's highs should be the lowest of the week with the maxes mainly in the 50s to low 60s. The cloud cover will minimize nighttime cooling, and the Tuesday morning lows are expected to be comparable to the Monday lows.

A shortwave upper ridge moving in the zonal pattern over TX brings a temporary end to rain chances but doesn't appear to have enough strength or persistent to scour out the low level moisture. So we may get some partly cloudy skies late Monday into early Tuesday, but mostly cloudy skies should continue provide cooling through most of the work week. South winds return mid-week but also bring back a thicker layer of low clouds and a slight effect of overrunning as falling heights aloft upstream from TX translate to weak coastal troughing over the TX coast. Temperatures should moderate back to near seasonal norms, but rain chances will return mainly in the form of streamer convection. By Friday, the latest deterministic runs depict hints of embedded shortwave activity in the, by then, SW flow aloft pattern, which could offer the chance for upscaling convection.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Deteriorating flight conditions occur now through the overnight and for much of Sunday, as flight categories lower from MVFR/VFR down to IFR levels due to the combination of lowering ceilings, reduced visibilities, and rounds of rain/showers across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). Instances of LIFR could occur as well at times, especially for the I-35 terminals. The thunder risk should stay low initially but peaks early to mid-morning Sunday as a front advances across the region. While the rain tapers off behind the front, the ceilings will remain low with marginal improvement, if any. Easterly winds will continue into Sunday before shifting more north-northeasterly behind the front with gradual uptick in wind speeds into and through Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 67 55 61 48 / 20 70 90 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 55 62 47 / 40 70 90 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 58 66 49 / 60 70 90 20 Burnet Muni Airport 65 54 59 46 / 30 60 90 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 62 76 54 / 30 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 52 58 46 / 20 70 90 40 Hondo Muni Airport 72 61 72 50 / 20 80 70 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 56 65 47 / 50 70 90 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 57 66 49 / 20 70 100 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 60 68 50 / 50 80 90 20 Stinson Muni Airport 72 62 70 52 / 50 80 80 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.