textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Dry weather along with above normal temperatures to persist across south central Texas through this weekend and well into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Convection from yesterday evening has ended, with the highest amounts noted across southern Gonzales/northern DeWitt and central Karnes Counties where radar estimated rainfall amounts were up to around 1.5". Elsewhere, amounts were 1/4" or less, especially farther west into the I-35 corridor.

Current water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low currently over Nuevo Leon Mexico with some mid and upper level moisture moving northward across the region. This low is expected to drift north- northwestward today, with any rain chances likely remaining confined to the higher terrain west of the Rio Grande. Otherwise, expect another round of high temperatures remaining a few degrees above normal today and Sunday with mid 90s to near 100 degrees in the forecast. Overnight lows will be in the 70s. Some morning low clouds can be expected both days, with clouds slowest to clear over the southern Edwards Plateau region. A few spots in the coastal plains may briefly see heat index values approaching 108 degrees. However, breezy south winds will promote efficient mixing, which should allow for dew point temperature decreases during peak heating.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For much of the upcoming week, the broad subtropical ridge axis remains the dominant weather feature across much of the southern U.S. There are some differences noted in the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF in showing some potential for weakening of the ridge late in the forecast period. While the GFS solution favors an upper trough developing over the southern U.S. plains late in the period, ensembles from both of the mentioned models do not agree. For now, we prefer to keep the forecast dry along with temperatures remaining above climatological normals for mid to late August.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

MVFR ceilings are slowly developing over the I-35 corridor and Hill Country, and will eventually expand west into the southern Edwards Plateau after sunrise. As seen previous nights, coverage may bounce between SCT and BKN ceilings at times. Around 15-16Z, VFR conditions will return across the area. South to southeasterly wind increases late this morning through the evening, with the highest gusts along the Rio Grande up to 25 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 100 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 98 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 74 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 101 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.