textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Flood Watch remains through this evening for much of the area.

- Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) persist during the weekend before ending into and through the upcoming workweek.

- Cool and mostly cloudy this weekend before temperatures modify through the workweek with more sunshine.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

This morning has had a nearly stationary corridor of rain mostly parallel to the US Highway 281 corridor, producing occasional rain rates within the 1 to 2 inch per hour range. This has and could continue to result in some additional flooding, especially for the locations that are most sensitive from heavy rain over the past 24 to 48 hours. This is associated with a front situated across the region and a mid-level shear axis. The airmass across the area remains very moist as well with PWATs up into the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range. With this moisture, some additional redevelopment or slight flare ups in activity are possible in the coastal plains and I-35 corridor later this afternoon with any modest daytime heating. The latest guidance then later into the evening and tonight indicates that the local enhancement could become a bit less organized and pivot west-northwestward as the front and mid- level shear axis starts to become more separated in distance. This is as the front regains some slight southeastward motion while the mid-level axis retrogrades slightly westward. Saturday into Saturday night will continue to feature rain chances, but is forecast to remain more limited and spotty compared to today. Activity would be mostly driven by any modest daytime heating on Saturday. The skies remain mostly cloudy to overcast for most locations. Temperatures trend from the mid to upper 70s to the 80s for highs while lows look to generally range in the mid to upper 60s in the Hill Country to the mid 70s at night elsewhere.

With active flood advisories across portions of the region at the time of this writing, we'll let the current Flood Watch remain in effect until 7 PM this evening. Up to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated amounts of up to 4 inches remain possible through Saturday. This could lead to isolated instances of additional flooding, especially for sensitive areas that have received heavy rain over the past 24 to 48 hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Some spotty rain chances linger for Sunday with the moist airmass before PWATs then decline with drier air arriving from the north into and through the upcoming workweek. This allows for returning sunshine and fair weather through much of the week with greater sunshine. Temperatures gradually warm, approaching 90 degrees for some locations by the end of the week. Winds maintain a north to northeasterly flow through the long term with light to moderate wind speeds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Light to moderate areas of rain, with a few occasionally heavier pockets and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two, persists across the US highway 281 and I-35 corridor during the time of this discussion. This persists into the late afternoon and evening before areal coverage decreases and pivots more towards the west- northwest with time. With the rest of this afternoon into this evening, do expect for -RA or RA to remain in the I-35 terminal TAFS (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) with fluctuations in visibility with passing activity and ceilings between MVFR to VFR levels, but brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out as well. Ceilings after dark look to lower back into the MVFR to IFR range. As earlier mentioned with the rain shifting west-northwest, KDRT should expect prevailing -RA to enter the forecast by the end of the TAF period. Additionally, expect for ceilings to lower at KDRT into MVFR to IFR range as well. Winds will remain mostly northwest to northerly in direction at around 10 to 12 kts or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 83 70 83 / 50 30 30 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 83 70 82 / 50 30 30 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 83 71 83 / 40 30 30 30 Burnet Muni Airport 68 78 67 80 / 60 60 40 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 80 68 84 / 70 70 30 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 81 69 81 / 60 50 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 72 83 70 84 / 60 30 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 83 70 83 / 40 40 30 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 71 82 / 30 40 40 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 83 71 82 / 50 30 30 30 Stinson Muni Airport 73 84 72 84 / 40 30 30 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-186>194- 203>209-218>225-228.