textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Additional rains continue today before chances start to decline and pivot more towards the south from tonight through Tuesday.

- A flood risk persists with any embedded heavier rain and storms, especially across the Southern Edwards Plateau, and a corridor concentrated from the Rio Grande Plains east- northeastward.

- Dries out with pleasant temperatures mid to late week with help from a front or two.

- Returning rain chances (20-40%) during late next weekend and the following Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1224 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Waves of rain will continue into and through today as the upper level low that is still to our west finally advances into and across the state. Rain will remain mostly light to moderate for most but embedded heavier pockets, including a few storms, is expected. The greatest concerns moving forward, including the risk for flooding, seems to concentrate across the Southern Edwards Plateau, which has already seen several flooded roads from swollen creeks/draws, and a corridor on the latest short term guidance that pinpoints the Rio Grande Plains through portions of the San Antonio metro region and Coastal Plains where slightly higher rain rates may establish overnight through morning. The latest forecast shows 0.5 to 1.5 inches of additional rain could fall over the Southern Edwards Plateau while 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts could fall across that southern most highlighted corridor that initially will establish across the Rio Grande Plains. Elsewhere, locations may expect perhaps as much as another inch or so.

Rain chances from tonight through Tuesday look to fade across our northern regions with lingering PoPs in the 20 to 40 percent range becoming primarily confined to locations south of the I-10 corridor, where some isentropic lift tries to hold out a bit longer with the leftover energy that follows in wake of the primary upper low and the slowly weakening surface coastal trough across South Texas.

The clouds and soggy weather keep today's daytime highs in the 60s while the temperatures will only lower to the mid 50s through the nights. Tuesday sees clouds remain prevalent over southern areas while some sun may filter into our northern areas later in the day. Highs on Tuesday will run slightly milder from the mid 60s into the mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1224 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The last of the rain chances shift southeastward out of the region from Tuesday night towards Wednesday morning. Wednesday otherwise trends as the warmest day of the week with some possible heating attributed to the approach of a weak front and any downsloping effects from terrain with a light westerly to northwesterly surface flow. Some locations may touch 80 degrees Wednesday afternoon. The weak front moves across the area Wednesday night and provides a drier airmass to filter in. This looks to lead to a cooler and more refreshing Thursday under sunny skies. A secondary front may then arrive into early Friday, which could help reinforce the dry and cooler airmass. Friday and Saturday mornings could start off chilly where the low-lying valleys in the Hill Country could dip as low as the upper 30s.

While some key differences remain, the most recent 00Z medium range deterministic guidance has fallen much more into line with each other in comparison to the 12Z guidance with regards to the next possible pattern change when a fairly progressive upper level low could advance across the region from the west sometime late next weekend into the following Monday. This reintroduces area rain chances (20-40%) into the forecast across the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A large area of -RA/RA continues to spread across the region with some decrease in extent expected later this evening. Forecast CIGs/VSBYs are highly uncertain due to the complex overlap of ample moisture and showers streaming over the region and somewhat drier winds beneath the cloud deck which has led to a variable patchwork of VFR to IFR conditions. The TAFs strike a balance between pessimistic statistical aids and optimistic hi res model ouputs, leaning more towards the statistical guidance due to recent rains. Overall conditions should generally average out to MVFR/IFR across the area over the next 24 hours with better signals of improvement to MVFR/VFR Tuesday afternoon when showers begin moving out of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 55 71 57 77 / 20 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 53 72 56 78 / 20 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 69 57 76 / 30 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 55 70 56 74 / 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 58 70 58 74 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 53 72 56 77 / 20 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 55 70 57 76 / 50 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 53 71 56 77 / 20 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 53 73 58 78 / 10 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 56 69 59 76 / 40 20 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 57 69 60 76 / 40 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.