textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

-Pockets of heavy rain possible Hill Country this afternoon/early evening

- Active and unsettled weather pattern to return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with localized flooding issues possible.

- Warmer and drier weather looks possible by late week

- Rain chances return over the weekend

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A Meso Convective System (MCS) with embedded Meso Convective Vortices (MCV) between the San Angelo's and Fort Worth/Dallas CWAs is forecast to push to the south this afternoon. It could be moving across the northern part of the Hill Country this evening. As it does that, outflow boundaries are projected to push into the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country mid to late afternoon. Moist southeasterly flow combines with these boundaries to generate showers and storms across those areas through the period. Some showers and storms could still be around the Hill Country area including the Austin metro through early this evening. The storm activity should be isolated to widely scattered in nature. Strongest storms could produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. In addition, a quick 1 to 2 inches of rainfall could be possible as wind shear values are weak, providing the storms to linger over a location for a longer time. Otherwise, highs in the upper 80s across most places and lower 90s along the Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

By Tuesday morning, cloudy skies are expected across most of South Central Texas. There is a slight chance for showers and an isolated storm or two along the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau ahead of a dryline that sits over west Texas. By the afternoon and continuing into the evening, an upper level short wave axis pushes from northeast Mexico into the Southern Plains. At low levels, a southerly wind flow remains and helps increased moisture from the Gulf to be spread across South Central Texas. While that happens, instability increases with forecast soundings suggesting MLCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg, DCAPE 1000 J/kg, and wind shear values exceeding 45 knots. All of this to say that, all severe weather hazards are possible as a linear convective system develops ahead of the west Texas dryline. The Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook from SPC highlights the western half of South Central Texas (west of Highway 281) with a Level 2 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms and the rest of the local area with Level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms. The storm system is likely to affect the local area Tuesday evening (the Rio Grande Plains first) through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning (Coastal Plains). As the storm system moves eastward Tuesday night and overnight, the severe weather threat could diminish with the loss of daytime heating, however, the heavy rain and flooding continues through the period. Therefore, WPC ERO Day 2 highlights most of South Central Texas with a Level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall and Day 3 with level 2 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall along and east of Highway 77 as heavy rain moves over that area on Wednesday. As of now, we are looking for a storm total rainfall values from 1 to 3 inches with up to 5 inches any where across the local area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The shower and storm activity pushes across the eastern part of South Central Texas on Wednesday with dry conditions out west over the Rio Grande Plains. The dry trend continues to push from west to east with only slight chance for showers and storms across the east on Thursday and a dry forecast for all local areas on Friday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. The upcoming weekend starts dry but another upper level disturbance moving over northern Mexico into the Southern Plains brings back rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions to start the forecast though some pockets of BKN clouds at 3kft could linger another hour. Did include a PROB30 group with thunderstorms expected to form near KAUS between 22-02Z, though coverage should be very isolated. Besides in the presence of any storms, wind will generally remain light from the east or southeast. Continued only SCT low clouds in the forecast at this time around when they formed this earlier this morning. There is a low chance for storms around KDRT in the morning, and possibly some chances for isolated storms near I-35 terminals Tuesday afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 89 72 83 / 20 0 80 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 89 72 83 / 20 0 80 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 88 70 82 / 10 10 90 80 Burnet Muni Airport 67 85 69 81 / 20 10 70 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 88 70 89 / 10 30 70 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 87 70 81 / 20 0 70 70 Hondo Muni Airport 69 86 69 83 / 0 20 90 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 88 71 82 / 10 10 90 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 89 72 81 / 10 0 70 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 88 71 83 / 0 10 90 70 Stinson Muni Airport 70 88 71 83 / 0 10 90 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.