textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather pattern continues through the middle of next week with daily shower and storm chances. Strong to marginally severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible most days.

- Well above average temperatures most days through the middle of next week, but cooler for this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1219 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A mid/upper level trough moving over the Great Basin lifts the front that stalled to our north away from our area today. Streamer showers are possible over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country to along and east of I-35 this morning into early afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will form over the Serrianas del Burro of Mexico, then drift across the Rio Grande Plains into the Edwards Plateau late this afternoon into evening. MLCAPE around 1,500 J/kg and steep mid level lapse rates around 8C/km indicate a potential for strong to severe storms across those areas.

The trough moves toward the Four Corners tonight where it splits with one part headed toward the Central Rockies while dragging the dryline into Val Verde County and possibly Edwards County Friday afternoon as the other part heads towards Baja California. Streamer showers and a few late afternoon into evening thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the dryline. Similar MLCAPE and steep mid level lapse rates indicate a potential for a few strong to severe storms.

Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rains will be the main threats with any storms. The lower level thermal ridge maintains the ongoing temperature trends.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1219 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The part of the trough that moves out of the Central Rockies to over the Central Plains on Saturday drags a cold front across Texas that moves into the Hill Country late in the morning, the remainder of our area in the afternoon, then stalls south of our area Saturday night into Sunday. Meanwhile, the other part of the trough closes off just west of Baja California, then sends mid level impulses over our area Sunday through Tuesday while the front lifts back north on Monday. There remains fairly good agreement among models/ensembles to open up the closed low and move it over our area on Wednesday. These features will generate rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. The latest guidance now shows a 60 to 90% chance for at least 1 inch rainfall for most of our area with a potential for multiple inches across some areas. Moderate instability and shear may allow for a few strong to severe storms, though heavier rains and flooding are the main impacts. As this timeframe gets into the CAMs, the forecast will be fine tuned. The widespread cloudiness and areas of rain will result in "cooler", though still above average temperatures late this week through the early next week. Except across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country Saturday afternoon and all areas on Sunday which be much cooler due to cold advection underneath thick cloud cover resulting in slightly below average high temperatures. As the trough passes, it will send a cold front across our area taking temperatures near to below average later next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

All terminals have MVFR ceilings this morning that will remain through the morning. VFR conditions will return by around noon. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the period becoming gusty during the afternoon. There will be a 20% chance for showers during the day today. There will be a better chance for thunderstorms this evening at DRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 85 68 84 69 / 20 20 20 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 66 85 67 / 20 20 20 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 66 83 67 / 20 20 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 81 66 79 65 / 20 20 20 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 66 90 65 / 20 30 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 66 83 66 / 20 20 30 40 Hondo Muni Airport 86 65 84 65 / 20 20 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 66 85 67 / 20 20 20 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 68 86 69 / 10 10 20 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 68 83 68 / 20 20 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 87 68 85 69 / 20 20 20 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.