textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Friday evening for most of South Central Texas.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then decrease heading into next week.

- Fall-like temperatures next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb low over the TX/OK Panhandles producing southwesterly flow over most of TX. At the a Pacific cold front extends across the northwestern part of our CWA. This is disrupting the flow with southeasterlies continuing over the Coastal Plains, but variable wind directions around the front convection in its vicinity. This morning's soundings at DRT and FWD show PW above 2 inches again which is in the 90th percentile of the climatological record. The upper low will progress toward the northeast tonight, but the trailing trough will remain over West TX. The surface front will move slowly toward the east. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop tonight across the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor, and Coastal Plains. With the high PW airmass locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. High resolution models are showing a line of thunderstorms moving across from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plains. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most of this area. We expect widespread rainfall totals of 1-4 inches with isolated amounts up to six inches. The higher rainfall totals will lead to flash flooding. The front will exit our CWA Friday morning and stall along the coast. Rain chances will continue Friday and Friday night, but the airmass will be drier. Rainfall totals will be moderate and the flood threat will be diminished.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

With the front stalled across Deep South Texas, there will be continuing chances for rain into the weekend. Rainfall totals will continue to be more moderate. A few showers may linger into Monday. By Tuesday the front will have moved away and upper level ridging will move back over Texas bringing dry weather back. With cloudy skies and scattered showers the long term period will start off cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s Saturday. From there temperatures will slowly increase reaching the low to mid 80s by Tuesday and staying there. These are about normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Convection has reached the I-35 Corridor and thunderstorms will affect the Austin and San Antonio airports for the next couple of hours. We should see a transition to rain showers by mid- afternoon. We expect more isolated coverage through the evening and then showers redevelop overnight continuing into the day Friday. MVFR ceilings will develop overnight and last until mid- afternoon.

DRT will be VFR through the entire period. Most of the period will be rain-free, but there is about a 30% chance of showers Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 82 71 80 / 100 90 90 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 82 70 80 / 100 90 90 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 82 69 80 / 100 90 80 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 79 67 76 / 80 90 90 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 85 67 79 / 10 30 70 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 81 69 78 / 100 90 90 70 Hondo Muni Airport 69 80 68 79 / 80 70 90 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 82 69 81 / 100 90 80 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 85 71 83 / 90 80 70 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 81 71 80 / 100 90 80 60 Stinson Muni Airport 72 82 71 81 / 100 90 80 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-186>193- 203>208-218>221-223-228.