textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions over Val Verde County today; Elevated fire weather conditions could develop over much of South Central Texas today.

- Near critical fire weather conditions west of I-35 Wednesday, and for nearly all of South Central Texas Thursday.

- This morning will be chilly, but the rest of the week will be warmer than normal.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Today we'll have to watch the moisture return with extra caution, as the return flow winds are expected to get robust in a hurry after daybreak. Very low dewpoint temps fell into the single digits south and east of San Antonio Monday, but the late evening dewpoints are recovering nicely over the Coastal Bend despite only a modest SE breeze. This has us feeling a little better about the fire weather conditions, but the breezy and gusty winds could still interact with the projected RH values mainly in the 25 to 35 percent range to make fire spread difficult to control. The moisture return will probably be too late to generate any low clouds, so the mixing of winds aloft to the surface is expected to quickly mix up to 5000 ft, allowing the surface directions to bend to the SSW to speed up the warming trend.

Wind directions should back to S/SE tonight and bring in a little better moisture for a good to excellent recover over 85 percent across most of the area. While these surface winds promote Gulf moisture influx through sunrise Wednesday, a surface low digging SE into North Central TX will bring the dry-line, pulling any low clouds east and bringing a hot and dry west wind into the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Rio Grande Plains, and bring well above normal temperatures to all areas.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Dew points advance back westward overnight into Thursday morning as the boundary layer decouples from the 3000 FT and higher wind directions. The dry-line retreat will barely make the Hill Country before a polar front drops rapidly across South Central TX between 15Z and 18Z. This will bring more fire weather issues that expand to all but the SE 3 or 4 counties of South Central TX where the RH values hold up longer.

The air behind the front isn't particularly cold, as the strongest CAA is well to the northeast. Above normal highs remain a good bet, and the southwestern counties could end up with highs just as warm as the day before. The north winds die down by 12Z Friday morning, but shouldn't decouple enough to drop min temps enough to even get to late February normals before the sun comes up.

No rain is forecast through the weekend, but at least by Friday afternoon, the southerly winds will return and keep a steady feed of Gulf moisture from S/SE winds into the weekend and next week. There could be locally elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon, but the rest of the extended looks to hang on to a deeper layer of moisture. The next scenario for a chance of rain looks about 10 days away.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Little to no change made to the previous forecast. Winds will increase around 16Z and remain gusty through sunset before relaxing somewhat with gusts dropping off. VFR ceilings are expected through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 56 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 54 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 54 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 49 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 55 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 47 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 57 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 54 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 53 89 57 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.