textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather continues through Thursday, areas of patchy fog possible this evening.

- A strong arctic front is forecast for our area Friday night, bringing dangerous cold temperatures and a prolonged freeze this weekend into early next week.

- Winter Storm Watch and Extreme Cold Watches have been issued as confidence in a freezing rain event increases for this weekend, especially for our northern areas. Stay tuned for updates

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thick clouds continue to be observed across the majority of the area though some clearing has been noted on satellite imagery. These clouds continue to keep temperatures somewhat cooler with several locations as of this hour in the low to upper 60s. Expect these clouds to gradually clear from west to east though the rest of this afternoon with more clouds increasing back into the area from the Coastal Plains on westward overnight. Temperatures will greatly depend on where clouds remain with those under the clouds remaining in the 50s while those that see earlier clearing across the west would remain in the upper 30s to low 40s. Additionally, we could see areas of patchy fog develop tonight as moisture from earlier today sticks around and gets wrung out mainly for areas along and east of the I-35 Corridor. Thursday is another warm today with most seeing highs in the 70s under partly sunny skies, lows will be very warm with many remaining in the low to mid 50s as clouds increase ahead of the long advertised arctic front.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Above normal temps continue through Friday as zonal flow aloft keeps temps elevated and warm. That all changes come Friday night as a strong arctic front looks to impact TX while at the same time strong moisture from a cutoff low located over the Baja Cali area intersects this colder air. The resultant combination could allow our area to see not only the coldest air of the season but also a somewhat wintry mess of a system across most of TX. Temperatures will likely not warm too much as strong CAA on the backside of this front pushes in behind. Some areas in the Hill Country may see there highs earlier in the day before dropping after the frontal passage. As this occurs strong isentropic flow will override the shallow cool air thus bringing the potential for wintry weather across our area. By early Friday evening most models hint at this arctic front moving across our area starting from the north up into the Hill country and progressing southward across the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. Since there is quite a lot to talk about we are going to break this AFD down into several sections.

Wintry precipitation... Confidence level Low to Medium

Confidence continues to increase with precip chances now in the medium to high (60-90%) range for our area seeing some form of precipitation. Chances for freezing rain and ice accumulations continue to be low to medium at this time but are increasing especially for the Hill Country and northern I-35 Corridor including the Austin Metro area. As such we have gone ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for areas roughly along and north of a Val Verde to San Marcos to La Grange area. These areas can expect to see freezing rain or sleet or even a combination of the two mainly from Midnight Saturday through noon Sunday.

Although it is still a bit too early to get into specifics, the most likely scenario at this time continues to be freezing rain and sleet with snow less likely due to the anomalous large layer of warm moist air aloft above freezing mid levels that resides over sub freezing surface to lower levels (warm nose). We would need the sounding profile to cool substantially to see a mainly all snow event. Which as more model data comes in is looking less and less likely. Regarding precip we look to start out initially as plain old rain with some thunderstorms possible before northern parts of our CWA transition to freezing rain and or sleet as strong CAA continues to funnel in undercutting the rain/ thunderstorms as temps continue to fall. Global ensemble members continue to highlight and show this well with many suggesting the Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor with the highest chances of freezing rain including the Austin metro area. Chances decrease somewhat the further south one travels through the CWA.

We are somewhat more confident on timing. Areas across the Hill Country could see wintry precipitation effects as early as Midnight Saturday. While those areas along the I-35 Corridor should expect wintry precipitation as early as daybreak Saturday. Lastly, areas south and east of I-35 should experience wintry precipitation by the daytime hours Saturday. For areas south of this line we just don't have high enough confidence in extending the watch just yet, this however does not mean these areas to the south won't experience or see any wintry precipitation.

Now for the temperatures and wind chills... Confidence level High to Very High

This part we have far higher confidence in. Global models continue to come in colder and as is typical for these arctic outbreaks we have adjusted Saturday's highs lower as well with many struggling to get out of the 30s. In fact by daybreak Saturday morning many locations will see temperatures already right around freezing if not lower especially those further north. Some of our guidance continues to indicate highs Saturday across parts of our CWA remaining in the 20s..however we weren't quite that confident to go that low just yet. These temps seem reasonable as breezy northerly winds and cloudy conditions along with wintry precip help to tame temps during the day. Temps continue to fall throughout the day as strong northerly winds funnel in this polar air with wind chills in the teens and even single digits already likely as we approach Saturday night. Overnight expect wind chills to get dangerously cold with many seeing wind chills close to zero including the Austin metro area and the Hill Country with below zero wind chills possible there. Those further south may be slightly warmer but still very cold with wind chill values in the single digits to lower teens including the San Antonio metro area. We went ahead and issued and Extreme Cold Watch for the entire area that goes into effect from 6 PM Saturday until noon Monday. As we could see a secondary surge of cold temps once again for Sunday night.

As far as actual air temps go, we could see record lows possible for all climate sites for Sunday and even Monday with forecast highs for the northern half of the CWA right around freezing with warmer temps (around 40) across the Rio Grande Plains. Expect lows in the teens to low 20s Sunday night with similar air temps for highs and lows albeit a touch warmer for Monday (see Climate section below). By Tuesday and Wednesday highs moderate a bit reaching the upper 40s to low 50s by Tuesday and low to upper 50s by Wednesday with lows close to freezing both nights however temps will not be nearly as cold as what we will likely experience over this weekend.

One other thing to note is that some areas may remain below freezing for a prolonged period of time (greater than 48 hrs). The most likely timeframe would be from 6 AM Saturday morning until noon Monday. This becomes even more likely if areas to our north receive a fresh snow pack. Which this could allow even colder air to funnel into our region than currently forecasted. Bottom line for temperatures is this: it will be dangerously cold. Now is the time to prepare by protecting the four P's: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes. Please continue to stay tuned as this system is still several days away and forecast details can and likely could change as we get closer and the finer details get ironed out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 211 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Clouds continue to lift and fog has mostly dissipated late this morning. Given these trends, DRT will quickly improve to VFR at 18Z. The I-35 sites can expect MVFR for a another couple of hours, then trend back to VFR. VFR should then prevail through the afternoon and into the evening hours before low clouds and fog develop over the I- 35 corridor. Will keep cigs in IFR initially, with some LIFR possible towards sunrise.

CLIMATE

Issued at 137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Record Low Temperatures Jan 25 Jan 26 Austin Bergstrom 19 (2014) 24 (2011) Austin Camp Mabry 20 (1940/1926)20 (1904) San Antonio Intl 16 (1894) 20 (1897) Del Rio 22 (1963) 27 (1966/1920)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 50 71 57 65 / 0 0 10 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 50 72 57 67 / 0 0 10 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 50 72 57 67 / 0 0 0 50 Burnet Muni Airport 45 68 54 59 / 0 0 10 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 39 73 54 68 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 49 70 56 63 / 0 0 10 70 Hondo Muni Airport 45 74 55 70 / 0 0 0 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 49 73 57 69 / 0 0 10 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 74 59 70 / 10 0 0 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 51 73 59 69 / 0 0 0 50 Stinson Muni Airport 52 74 60 71 / 0 0 0 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through Sunday morning for TXZ171>173-183>194-206-208-209.

Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.