textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue through Saturday, then below average Easter Sunday and early next week.

- Medium rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday with isolated thunderstorms.

- More widespread rain chances Friday night into the weekend as a cold front arrives.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A weak zonal pattern aloft prevails over our area with troughing evident on satellite and model analyses. However, with the jet stream well to our north and southwesterly winds persisting in the lower levels, unseasonably warm conditions continue. An isolated shower or thunderstorm spurred by the daytime warmth could trek into western Val Verde County in the early evening, but capping quickly returns and any activity should be short-lived.

Moist southerly flow is forecast to strengthen Wednesday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough arriving from the southwestern US/Four Corners region. A few isolated and light streamer showers are forecast over the Coastal Plains in the morning to early afternoon hours tomorrow. Along and west of the I-35 corridor towards the Rio Grande, transient low-level thermal ridging will contribute to a warmer afternoon. Highs in the Rio Grande Plains are forecast to reach the mid- to upper-90s Wednesday as a result of this mass of warmer air.

Later in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night, the trough departs New Mexico and pushes across Texas and the Southern Plains. In response, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to form along the dry line in West Texas, with the storms moving east overnight into our area as they follow the mean winds and upwards ascent associated with the trough. Better chances for rain and storms are indicated over the Edwards Plateau and areas along and north of the I-10 corridor, coinciding with stronger divergence aloft. A few storms may develop off the Serranias del Burro over Mexico late Wednesday afternoon and reach the Rio Grande closer to 5- 9 PM, but most of the action looks to be after 10 PM, continuing into the early morning as storms push east. Steep lapse rates aloft around 7-7.5 C/km and around 40-50 kt effective bulk shear should support an isolated hail risk from the initial storm development near the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau. Boundary-parallel mid-level winds should lead to storms congealing quickly, transitioning the main threat towards isolated strong winds overnight. The main risk areas for hail and strong winds are mainly over the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and along the Rio Grande, where the SPC currently highlights between a level 1 (Marginal) to level 2 (Slight) 5 risk for severe weather. Although the low-level jet strengthens Wednesday night as the storms push towards the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains, lowered instability should generally reduce the overall severe risk with time. The rains should be moving steadily enough to prevent rain amounts generally in the 0.5-inch to 1.5-inch range with isolated amounts to 3 inches by Thursday morning. The southern end of the broken line of storms may see the highest totals, on the receiving end of the increasing low-level jet.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Wednesday night's should continue across the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains into Thursday morning before moving out of the area. It will still be unseasonably warm in the wake of those rains as southerly flow continues, with highs in the 80s to mid 90s. A much weaker impulse of energy moving across Mexico is associated with a low chance (around 10-20%) of showers mainly over the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau Friday morning.

The bigger story is a strong mid/upper level shortwave trough, more intense than the midweek one, moving across the Rockies and ejecting into the Central Plains Friday into Saturday. While this disturbance will be farther north, stronger northwesterly mid-level flow in its wake will help drive a cold front with showers and storms likely on Saturday as the front rolls across South-Central Texas from the northwest. A few storms are possible closer to the Rio Grande on Friday evening from dry line activity ahead of the front, but it looks like the stronger forcing and more confident rain chances will be associated with the frontal passage. A few strong to severe storms are possible. Given the SW to NE orientation of the front and good moisture supply along it, locally heavy rains are also possible if storms repeat over the same areas.

Cooler air is expected behind the front. The adjusted ensemble blend and statistical consensus aids indicate highs Easter Sunday could be in the 60s to low 70s for most of the area, or below average for early April along with a northerly breeze. With the cooler airmass penetrating into the northern Gulf, temperatures should stay below to near average to start next week despite southerly winds gradually returning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Strong southeasterly flow from the Gulf will continue for the coming TAF period. This will result in low ceilings developing late this evening in Austin and San Antonio and late overnight at DRT. Ceilings will generally be MVFR, but IFR is possible in San Antonio for a few hours late in the overnight period. There is also a low chance for IFR at DRT, but we are keeping it MVFR at this time. Winds will be 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts through the evening then drop to around 10 kts overnight. Winds will increase again Wednesday afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Record High Temperatures

Mar 31 (Tue) Apr 1 (Wed) Austin Bergstrom: 89 (1974) 92 (2011) Austin Camp Mabry: 90 (1946, 1974, 2023) 93 (2011) San Antonio Intl: 93 (1929, 1946) 93 (1939, 2011) Del Rio Intl: 100 (1913) 99 (2024)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 68 90 68 83 / 0 0 30 70 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 67 90 67 84 / 0 10 30 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 89 67 84 / 0 10 20 60 Burnet Muni Airport 66 87 66 82 / 0 0 50 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 93 69 88 / 0 10 40 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 67 90 67 84 / 0 0 40 70 Hondo Muni Airport 64 92 65 86 / 0 0 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 67 91 67 84 / 0 10 20 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 68 88 69 83 / 0 20 20 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 90 68 84 / 0 0 20 50 Stinson Muni Airport 68 91 70 86 / 0 0 20 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.