textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for storms late overnight across the Rio Grande however many areas should remain dry

- Cooler temperatures expected Thursday.

- Low to medium (30-60%) rain/storm chances Friday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The latest GOES 19 Water Vapor imagery shows a closed cutoff low over the northern Baja of California, along with southwesterly flow in the mid to upper levels. At the surface, flow is more north to northeasterly early this morning as a cold front moved through Wednesday afternoon/evening. Hi-res guidance has been rather aggressive in developing storms over the SDBs and sending them east into Maverick County between midnight and 6am. Believe this activity if it does materialize will be confined the the southern Rio Grande Plains and not work further into South Central Texas this morning.

Thursday will be a much cooler day, with daytime high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. With continued southwesterly flow aloft and adequate isentropic lift behind the frontal boundary over South Central Texas, think that clouds will be hard to break today and temperatures will remain on the cooler side of guidance. The latest 00Z suite of CAMs is not entirely promising for rain, but global guidance and the AI members are in decent agreement on more widespread rains as we move forward into the day Friday. A mid-level lead shortwave ahead of the upper low expected to move east on Friday will result in scattered showers and storms Friday, with the potential for locally heavy rainfall over the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. For this reason, a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall is in place for these areas Friday morning through early Saturday morning. Efficient warm rain processes and the upper low moving into Central Texas Friday night will produce locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding, especially in areas that are a bit more saturated from recent rains.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Storm chances continue into the day Saturday as the upper low moves across central Texas and lifts north over the ArkLaTex by late in the day. Rain and storms are possible most of Saturday before the threat likely pushes east Saturday night. Dry weather is expected in the remainder of the long term period as mid-level ridging develops over Southwest Texas and high temperatures climb back into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

DRT has some weak echoes moving overhead but the rapid refresh models have been too aggressive in firing up new convection, pushing back in time with the latest runs. Gusty winds from the north at 10-11Z is probably a good indication why--the frontal inversion is overachieving again. There still is indication of some storms to impact DRT before 18Z. No other area looks definitive enough to warrant a PROB30 group for convection. We'll continue to see several hours of MVFR cigs under the inversion and that should block out the sun most of the day, even if it has a chance to lift to VFR late in the day. Some IFR CIGs could return for early Friday morning as the front should finally show some erosion over I-35. Light showers are possible after midnight, but we'll expect low impacts for now and leave out of the TAFs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 73 63 79 67 / 10 10 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 64 79 68 / 10 10 50 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 64 79 67 / 10 10 50 60 Burnet Muni Airport 70 59 76 65 / 10 10 50 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 65 83 66 / 40 10 10 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 61 77 66 / 10 10 50 50 Hondo Muni Airport 75 65 80 67 / 20 10 20 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 64 79 67 / 10 10 50 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 66 79 68 / 10 10 60 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 66 80 68 / 10 10 40 60 Stinson Muni Airport 75 66 80 68 / 10 10 40 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.