textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through much of the next week - Low rain chances (20-30 percent) Wednesday night

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Wind gusts are still reaching into the 25-30 mph range today, so have opted to issue another Fire Danger Statement covering mainly SW counties where RH values are below 25 percent. Slightly higher humidity is forecast N/E of this region, and the breezy conditions are still interacting with dry fuels to form a few grass and brush fires. Winds should ease off by around 5 PM with a mostly light wind pattern expected for the rest of the weekend.

Despite the north breeze being stronger than advertised today, the dew point drying is being delayed because a surface low was hung up over Central Texas this morning. Drier dew point temps await farther to the north, and they could eventually settle into Central TX tonight and lower cooling potential in the Austin metro area. Thus we took shaded mins tonight slightly in the direction of short range consensus which was not as cool as the medium range MOS consensus. We are only shading a couple degrees here or there, but the lower dew point temps are what we want to catch in case return flow winds overachieve for Sunday, to make for more locally elevated fire weather conditions. Mid level height fields are amplifying over TX, so for now, the surface pressure gradient would not support a robust return flow save for maybe around Pandale or Rocksprings. Despite the return to south winds, the morning start of cooler air should lead to highs slightly below those expected today. The increase in dew point temperatures should be ready for an uptick by Sunday evening, and some low level Saturation may need to be considered. We added some patchy to areas of fog, but clipped out any mention of dense, as the increasing high clouds aloft may interrupt some of the fog formation.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

More above normal humidity and temperatures continue through late Wednesday, and a potent shortwave trough moves across Nrn Mexico toward W TX to bring a convective potential Wednesday night, at least for the Edwards Plateau. Unfortunately the trough shape is such that little PVA is expected to track into the rest of our counties as it pivots NE into N TX by Thursday morning. This should limit any quality rain to the Edwards Plateau and HilL Country, if that. However the speed and dynamics with this system might be sufficient to get more areas to the south and east a taste of some streamer showers with a good LLJ possible.

What is more likely is that we see some more breezy and dry conditions behind the shortwave from a pacific style dry front, leading to more elevated fire weather condition potential. Then again on Friday a polar front catches up and reinforces the dry NW winds. The Saturday front should get us a weekend of seasonably cool January temperatures, but still no good rain chances out through next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through late Sunday night. Northerly winds less than 10 knots are forecast to prevail this evening through Sunday morning. There is a period where the wind becomes light and variable Sunday morning before shifting to the southeast in the afternoon with speeds around 4 to 8 knots. For KDRT, the southerly winds start overnight and remain throughout the day on Sunday into the evening period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 45 71 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 39 72 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 43 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 42 70 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 48 74 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 40 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 42 73 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 40 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 43 70 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 46 72 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 46 73 54 76 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.