textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather pattern through next week.

- A warming trend though the weekend with highs approaching daily records on Sunday.

- Strong cold front brings windy and colder conditions Sunday night through Monday night.

- Near critical to critical fire weather in the wake of the front

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

We start with a cool Friday morning with temperatures in the 40s areawide by sunrise under clear skies. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s across South Central Texas with sunny skies and a south to southwest flow around 6 to 12 mph and occasional gusts up to 18 mph.

Continued clear skies Friday evening through Saturday morning with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. A nice warmup is in store for South Central Texas Saturday afternoon with highs in 80s and even lower 90s over parts of the Rio Grande.

High clouds begin to develop across the Val Verde county and southern Edwards Plateau areas late Saturday afternoon into the evening as an upper level short wave within the northwest to southeast flow aloft moves across the local area. As the time progresses, low level moisture increases across the Coastal Plains and then pushes into the I-35 corridor overnight to keep lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s range.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Morning clouds linger through midday Sunday and then dissipate for the most part in the afternoon. A dry line is forecast to push from the west into the I-35 corridor to bring record high temperatures across South Central Texas. Forecast highs range from the lower 90s across most locations with upper 90s along the Rio Grande. The winds are forecast to increase across Val Verde county, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country to about 15 to 25 mph behind the dryline during the mid to late afternoon. Fire weather concerns can't be ruled out over portions of Val Verde county and southern Edwards Plateau as near critical to critical fire weather conditions are met.

A strong cold front is pushing quickly across central Texas mid to late afternoon and arrives across the Hill Country between 6 and 7 PM CDT. Strong winds along and behind the front are forecast to spread across most of South Central Texas on Sunday evening into Monday. Northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast through the evening and the late night period. Higher elevations can't rule out wind gusts up to 60 mph. We will continue to monitor closely the evolution of this front as we get closer to Sunday. If little changes happen from now and then, it is very likely to have a Wind Advisory in place for the Sunday evening into the overnight period.

The front also drives a cold airmass across the local area with Monday morning lows in the lower 30s across the Hill Country and 40s elsewhere. Since breezy conditions are likely, the wind chill values could feel in the lower 20s over portions of the Hill Country, lower to mid 30s along the I-35 corridor and upper 30s to lower 40s across the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande.

After a cold start on Monday morning and very dry conditions, the attention turns to fire weather for all local areas. With dewpoints in the teens and single digits combined with cool temperatures (highs in the 50s and 60s), low relative humidities and breezy conditions to lead to near critical to critical fire concerns. A Red Flag Warning is likely to be issued for this event as we enters the second part of the upcoming weekend.

Another cold night is in store for Tuesday morning with lows in the lower to mid 30s across the South Central Texas. Forecast highs come up into the 60s and 70s. The warming trend continues for the rest of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR SKC overnight through Friday night. Some models show a potential for poor flying conditions Saturday morning with a mix of IFR/LIFR/VLIFR along and east of the I-35 corridor. However, chances are low and will maintain VFR mention through 14/12Z, for now. Winds turn south-southwesterly by morning and increase to 7 to 13 KTs during the day, then decrease to 5 to 10 KTs Friday night. Except, KDRT where southeasterly winds 5 to 10 KTs prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions could exist today and Saturday across portions of the Hill Country as moderate southwest to south winds prevail. A dryline drives very dry conditions across Val Verde county and portions of southern Edwards Plateau on Sunday afternoon leading to near critical conditions and even critical. A strong cold front pushes across South Central Texas late afternoon into the Sunday evening period. Breezy to windy northerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are forecast Sunday evening through the overnight hours/early Monday morning. Minimum relative humidity values recover a little Monday morning but drop to the 20s and teens between 10 AM and 12 PM CDT and continue to drop in the afternoon. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are likely to be in placed and a Red Flag Warning is likely for the period. Near critical fire weather conditions continue in Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 54 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 50 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 80 50 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 81 51 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 54 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 51 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 81 48 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 80 50 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 52 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 52 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 81 52 86 63 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.