textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms with a low-end risk for isolated severe weather east of I-35 Friday.

- Multiple frontal boundaries expected to elevate fire weather concerns through Saturday.

- Strong cold front arrives Friday night into Saturday morning with gusty winds and much cooler air.

- Chances for patchy freezes early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

This morning's breezy southerly winds should ease up as the nearby sharp shortwave trough has ejected out of the state and into the Central Plains. As of around noon Wednesday, a weak cold front and dry line were pushing across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, and is expected to stall along over the I-35 corridor or Coastal Plains this evening. In the drier conditions west of the dryline, efficient boundary layer mixing could support some dry gusts up to 20-25 mph over the southern Edwards Plateau this afternoon.

The approach of a second trough from the Four Corners region tonight forces the dryline to stay put without the usual westward rebound. Temperatures west of the Coastal Plains will be cooler in the 50s with the drier air in place, while those in the Coastal Plains along and east of the moist boundary are forecast to contend with muggy conditions in the 60s with patchy to areal fog early Friday morning.

Diffuse lift and mid-level destabilization ahead of the second trough should induce isolated to scattered showers near and along the stationary boundary late-morning to evening Friday and favoring areas east of I-35 and north of I-10 (with rain chances 30 to 60 percent). There is wide variation between hi-res models in the location of that boundary, which impacts the strength and placement of nearby rains. Most precipitation should be light, but there is isolated potential for severe storms given supportive lapse rates aloft and strong effective bulk shear. The best chances for stronger storms is over the Coastal Plains with some extension possible to the Austin area if the boundary stays a little farther west. The primary severe threats include isolated potentials for large hail and damaging winds, and this is reflected in the SPC's Level 1 of 5 (Marginal) severe risk area mainly east of I-35.

Farther west, a pre-frontal trough should continue to maintain drier conditions over most of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, with northwest flow supplying slightly cooler air and highs in the low 70s. Elsewhere, temperatures during the day Friday fluctuate depending on shower activity but could reach the upper 70s to low 80s for rain-free areas. A strong polar front is forecast to arrive Friday night. More on that in the following section.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Models are in good agreement in projecting a polar front arriving from the northwest Friday night. With aligned northwesterly flows both above and ahead of the front, the front should quickly plow across South-Central Texas by daybreak Saturday. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 mph and cold air are forecast to quickly follow the frontal passage. The gustiest conditions are expected along ridgetops in the Hill Country and immediately downwind of the Balcones Escarpment where downslope enhancement is possible. Temperatures Saturday morning are forecast to quickly drop into the 30s over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with 40s for the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and Rio Grande Plains. The coldest spots could register wind chills in the 20s.

Highs Saturday should be much more seasonable, residing in the 50s and 60s. Mid- to high-level clouds are forecast to continue racing across the region as the subtropical jet stays over our area. As breezy conditions continue throughout the day, near-critical fire weather is possible especially in clearer spots as much drier air spreads across the area.

The broader synoptic pattern over the central US supports continued seasonable and cool weather through early next week. Freezes are possible each morning Sunday to Tuesday, with better chances (up to near 70 percent) over the northwestern half of the CWA mainly west of I-35. Highs are forecast to stay seasonable in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A straggling upper-level disturbance over northern Mexico helps maintain upper-level cloud cover. Its approach may also bring light rain chances early to mid- next week, mainly south of our area, though the system's sensitive positioning on the tail end of broader troughing leads to significant uncertainties in timing of those rains. As a broad trough remains in place over the Central US, the window remains open for another push of cold air next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

VFR conditions return this afternoon and continue into early Friday morning. Westerly wind decreases through the afternoon with mainly light and variable wind after 00Z. Wind becomes northerly Friday with MVFR to IFR ceilings developing over the Coastal Plains Friday morning. There is low to medium confidence these low ceilings move into SAT/SSF after sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of a front tomorrow afternoon and may impact I-35 terminals and a PROB30 group for the afternoon has been introduced.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 58 75 45 60 / 0 50 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 75 44 59 / 0 50 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 76 45 60 / 0 30 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 52 72 40 56 / 0 40 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 51 77 44 60 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 55 73 42 58 / 0 50 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 57 79 43 61 / 0 20 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 77 45 60 / 0 40 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 63 78 47 60 / 10 50 30 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 77 46 60 / 0 30 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 61 79 47 61 / 0 20 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.