textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms can be expected today mainly over the coastal plains into the I-35 corridor.

- A warming trend continues through much of the week with afternoon heat indices on the rise.

- Rain chances trend upward late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

An upper level ridge covers most of the southern part of the country with weak anticyclonic flow over TX at 500 mb. The low level flow is from the southeast keeping a warm, moist airmass in place across South-Central Texas. Temperatures and dewpoints were both in the 70s this morning. Little change in the overall weather pattern is anticipated today, with isolated showers and storms possible for areas mainly along and east of the I-35/I-37 corridors. A slight strengthening of the upper ridge will make storm coverage a bit less Thursday.

Daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s along with continued humid conditions thanks to recent rains and southeast winds will help push heat index values into the 100 to near 105 degree range over the next couple of days.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 132 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The mid and upper level high pressure will persist into the upcoming weekend, but will eventually begin to be displaced southward as westerly flow aloft increases in advance of an upper trough over the northern Rockies. This weakening of high pressure along with afternoon heating should be enough to allow rain chances to start a slow increase for mainly late this weekend into early next week. Daytime highs in the 90s and humid conditions will still be able to produce afternoon heat index values in the 100 to near 105 degree range into early next week, but we should stay below heat advisory criteria.

The medium range models are also showing some increasing agreement in a cold front dropping southward into the region early next week. While the strength of the northerly winds in the GFS looks a little overdone, there is some support for a cold front to drop southward into the region based on the broad, upper trough over the central and southern plains states. Timing of the front remains in question, but would tend to favor a Tuesday arrival closer to the ECMWF solution. Both models are showing good chances for significant rainfall Monday night into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Low clouds are just beginning to develop over the region. MVFR ceilings will move into the Austin and San Antonio areas within the next hour or two. SAT will occasionally drop to IFR overnight. All terminals will rebound to VFR by around noon. Southerly winds will gust in the low 20s during the afternoon. MVFR ceilings will redevelop late evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 76 93 76 / 20 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 92 76 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 95 77 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 91 76 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 76 93 76 / 20 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 92 77 94 77 / 30 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 93 77 93 77 / 20 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 93 77 94 77 / 20 0 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.