textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather pattern today through Wednesday with daily rain and storm chances. Strong to marginally severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible mainly Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. - Seasonably mild temperatures expected Sunday and Thursday with above normal temperatures for the remainder of the next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

An under-achieving storm event unfolded Saturday evening with only a few reports of hail and nothing over 1 inch thus far. The rainfall amounts were especially disappointing with radar storm total estimates suggesting only about 10 to 15 percent of the area got amounts in excess of 1/2 inch. The event took an early timeout as of the time of this writing, but the window of rain narrative for this convective period continues through this afternoon. Most of the mesoscale solutions continue to depict some regenerating elevated convection closer to daybreak and running into the early afternoon. Additional rains, if you're lucky enough to get any, should typically run less than 1/4 inch. In any event, a seasonably cool and humid day sure beats the hot and dusty conditions we got for much of February.

As the front begins to dissolve tonight, light rain shower chances and perhaps drizzle remains possible until all the low level winds run southerly by Monday afternoon. Isolated claps of thunder are possible, but the real energy from this pattern looms well west of TX, but only for another day. Mondays temperatures should return back to what was seen in the latter part of last week with breezy and humid conditions to accompany.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1226 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

The part two of this week's stormy pattern comes Tuesday when the cut-off portion of the upper trough makes its way east into TX and pivots NE to re-join the polar westerlies. The model run-to-run trend still suggests a weaker pattern to shear northward, but there are a few cycles still coming in with a deeper passage over TX. This leaves us in a low confidence position to not want to get too far away from the blended guidance, but also gives us pause on talking up a significant rain and severe weather event. A weaker trough could leave the area with another mediocre rain event, but at least with less potential for storm severity. Usually these timing and track trends get resolved and supported by the time the meso-scale runs come into the picture about a couple days out. Some rain chances Monday night/early Tuesday are perhaps on the generous side, so most folks should expect light rain amounts and less impactful weather. The event should ramp up as early as midday Tuesday with the expectation of the highest impact to be roughly 00Z to 12Z Wednesday. With this ejecting trough and trailing front Tuesday night, there should at least be a more organized pattern for a squall line, even if it might be on the weaker side. Southernmost counties have the highest risk of missing out on rain.

The remainder of the 7-day forecast leaves no opportunity for rain. The departing low should leave us at least 1 day of seasonably cool temperatures, but hot temperatures in the 80s to near 90 are suggested to return by next Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

MVFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Sunday evening with periods of IFR conditions possible in SHRA/TSRA. CIGs lower to IFR/LIFR Sunday night. Northerly winds prevail overnight into Sunday, then become light and VRBL Sunday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 63 83 69 / 30 20 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 60 83 67 / 30 20 30 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 67 60 82 66 / 40 20 40 10 Burnet Muni Airport 69 60 80 66 / 20 20 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 61 81 66 / 50 20 10 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 59 82 67 / 20 20 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 69 59 81 64 / 50 20 30 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 60 83 67 / 40 20 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 63 84 69 / 40 10 30 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 68 62 82 68 / 50 20 40 30 Stinson Muni Airport 69 63 83 69 / 50 20 40 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.