textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry rest of today with breezy and gusty conditions

- Isolated storms possible Sunday afternoon and evening

- A wet pattern awaits for the work week. Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A warm and dry weather day is anticipated across South Central Texas. Forecast highs ranging from the upper 80s across the Hill Country to lower and mid 90s across the I-35 corridor, the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains areas. Increased moisture from the Gulf arriving to South Central Texas this afternoon to help feel-like temperatures a few degrees higher than the ambient temperatures which means upper 90s to 100 for portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Latest satellite images show scattered clouds across the eastern part of the local area while the Southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains are under mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. By late afternoon, partly cloudy skies are forecast for most locations. by the way, one thing to help these feel-like temperatures is the southerly breezes and gusty wind conditions forecast throughout the day and night. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the upper 60s across the Hill Country and parts of the Southern Edwards Plateau to the lower and mid 70s across the rest of the local area. Increased cloud cover returns over the local area this evening into Sunday morning with cloudy skies most locations. The breezy conditions overnight into Sunday morning are forecast to limit fog development across the local area on Sunday morning, however, can't totally rule out a few spots with patchy fog across the Coastal Plains around daybreak.

Cloudy skies are in store for most of the local area Sunday. High temperatures very similar of today ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s areawide. However, increased Gulf moisture continues to travel into South Central Texas with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is going to assist the feel-like temperatures to get into the mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor, Coastal Plains, and up to 105 over parts of the Rio Grande Plains. In addition to these warm conditions, there is a slight chance for showers and storms along and east of Interstate 35 late afternoon into the evening. Even though forecast soundings show a moderate to strong cap, any ripples within the southwest flow aloft associated with the upper level short wave moving across the Southern Plains could weaken it, opening the door for an isolated storm or two. The other thing that the forecast soundings reveal is the inverted V-shape profiles which represent strong winds traveling down to the surface with any downdraft that manages to develop. Also, pwats are elevated, ranging from 1.6 to 1.8 inches which could result in a quick heavy downpours with highest rainfall accumulations of quarter to an inch in an hour. And if nothing happens as far as shower/storm activity Sunday, a wet pattern is shaping for the work week. See below.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 110 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Monday's weather forecast calls for even warmer temperatures than this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 90s most places and getting into the 100 mark over portions of the Rio Grande Plains. With increased moisture in place and dewpoints in the lower 70s for many locations, feel-like temperatures between the upper 90s to 106 are anticipated along and east of I-35 corridor and 100 to 107 over the Rio Grande Plains. As far as shower/storm activity, things are quiet as a strong cap holds, but if for some reason weakens, the a few strong storms could be possible with strong winds reaching the ground.

From Tuesday into Wednesday time frame is where the weather pattern get interesting as a dryline sits over west Texas and a cold front over north central Texas advances to the south. We may see some storms developing along the dryline and then moving east into the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. The other area that could see some storms is along and east of I-35 corridor where pwats are around 1.7 to 2.0 inches based on GFS values. During the afternoon on Wednesday, the cold front is forecast to be nearby the Hill Country and then pushing over that area in the evening based on GFS guidance. The 00Z ECMWF model package has a similar approach of the cold front. The upper level support solutions are a bit different with the passing short waves/disturbances through the period with the long wave axis moving over the northwest Pacific and extending into southern California. The long wave deepens as it moves across the Rockies and four corners region and into the Southern Plains on Thursday with the lingering frontal boundary across South Central Texas. There are signals that Thursday could be the day with the more intense rains. The wet pattern continues into Friday as upper level disturbances move over central Texas.

In summary, a wet weather pattern awaits for the work week especially Wednesday through Thursday with rounds of showers and storms on Friday into next weekend. Some areas could get several inches of rainfall through this period leading to localized flooding. More details will be shared in future weather packages as the event unfolds.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Breezy southeasterly winds of 10-15 kts will continue through the entire forecast period, but gusts of 20+kts will take a break between 04Z and 15Z Sunday. Gusts up around 23-27 kts are expected Sunday afternoon, generally southeasterly once again. For this evening, with DRT taking until 20Z to break out of MVFR ceilings and low stratus still in place, went against guidance and started MVFR return by 08Z. Elsewhere, MVFR CIGs begin as early as 04Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF. VFR CIGs return as soon as 17/18Z Sunday but could take as long as 20Z to return.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 91 78 92 / 10 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 92 79 93 / 10 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 91 78 92 / 0 10 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 72 86 75 88 / 0 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 97 78 99 / 0 0 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 90 77 91 / 10 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 75 91 78 92 / 0 10 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 92 78 93 / 10 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 91 79 91 / 10 10 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 78 92 / 0 10 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 79 93 / 0 10 20 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.