textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Mild to warm conditions prevail this weekend into next week.

- Low (15-30%) rain chances late Monday through Tuesday.

- Details still to be ironed out but increasing rain chances entering Halloween weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mid-level ridging remains parked over central and east Texas early this afternoon, resulting in full sunshine and temperatures warming about 5-10 degrees above normal for late October. Thermal ridging at the 700mb level should break down by the second half of the weekend, but until then, we're expecting continued warm and dry conditions both today and Saturday as temperatures warm into the mid to upper 80s for most locations. The Edwards Plateau and Hill Country will be slightly cooler, as highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday night and Saturday night will both see increasingly warmer temperatures, however, slightly cooler air is expected to arrive starting Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Out west, a deepening trough over the Great Basin should finally push this stubborn ridging east of our region beginning Sunday. Temperatures should be slightly cooler starting Sunday as an increase in cloud cover due to southwesterly flow aloft and increased surface moisture as low level flow picks up out of the southeast. By Monday, this trough will eject quickly out over the High Plains, with a separate piece of energy lagging behind over north Texas Monday into early Tuesday. This shortwave should provide just enough lift to pop off some showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms primarily Tuesday morning through the afternoon.

Beyond Tuesday, both the ECMWF and GFS, as well as their AI suites have advertised a weak frontal boundary working into the region Wednesday, but it is unlikely to have much impact on temperatures. What may actually have bigger implications for our weather looks to arrive by late next week and Halloween weekend. Medium range ensembles have continued to hone in on the potential for a stronger cold front either next Friday or Saturday as well as the potential for moisture from what is now Hurricane Vance to get dragged northward into south Texas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

All terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. The Austin and San Antonio airports will be VFR through the entire period with only some mid-level clouds moving in late morning Saturday. DRT will have MVFR ceilings develop Saturday around sunrise and last through the end of the period. Southeasterly winds will be around 10 kts this afternoon and become light overnight. Winds may be a little stronger Saturday starting late morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 61 87 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 58 88 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 60 87 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 59 82 61 79 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 84 68 81 / 10 10 20 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 58 86 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 61 85 64 82 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 59 88 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 89 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 62 86 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 87 65 84 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.