textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Fair and mostly dry conditions continue this week.

- Chances of cool and rainy weather increasing this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

It's been a seasonably dry and cloudless Wednesday as zonal flow prevails aloft with surface high pressure holding steady beneath. Light winds and good radiational cooling tonight should bring lows into the 50s across South-Central Texas Thursday morning with isolated pockets in the 40s.

A weak cold front will move across the area Thursday afternoon and evening. There is not much time for southerly return flow ahead of the front to give it much moisture to work with. Therefore, rain chances are low (around 10%) and limited to the Coastal Plains, likely in the form of light showers with total rainfall amounts in the range of a trace to a few hundredths. The best chances are in the late afternoon into Thursday night. Otherwise, it should be a warm and mostly dry afternoon with highs near 80F. Behind the front, hi-res models indicate that an area of higher 925mb momentum will push south across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late Thursday evening. Sufficient turbulent mixing into the boundary layer despite its late-day arrival is forecast to produce a breezy Thursday night and Friday morning for the region, particularly along Hill Country ridgetops where sustained winds could be in the 20-25 mph range with gusts to 30 mph.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1225 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Thursday's front will pave the way for a cooler Friday with temperatures trending down for the weekend as surface high pressure over the Central Plains flexes its muscle and expands south, reinforcing cooler continental air over our region.

While uncertainty is still high, models have trended towards showing a more active weather pattern for this weekend. Beginning late Friday, a trough is expected to amplify over the southwestern US and come into phase with the subtropical jet, drawing moisture out of the eastern Pacific. The ascent of this moisture as it rides above the mass of cooler air over Texas is expected to result in broad coverage of showers, and rain chances have increased thanks to better agreement in the model guidance. Rain chances across the region range from about 40 to 60 percent. The current model consensus favors the first emergence of light showers over the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and Coastal Plains Saturday afternoon before spreading across much of South-Central Texas Saturday night into Sunday. However, the timing of the end of this rain event is less clear due as the speed of the amplifying trough remains in contention among the ensemble guidance. Broadly, we depict medium rain chances (30 to 60 percent) continuing through Sunday, diminishing Monday as the favorable ascent drops south. The cooler air, isentropic nature of the lift, and meager PWATs (around 1 to 1.3 inches, or near-average for mid November) suggest rain rates likely won't be especially heavy. However, if moisture sticks around for long enough there may be sufficient time to build up beneficial rainfall totals with the soaking rains. About 40 percent of medium range ensembles show rain totals above 1 inch for the weekend over the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and San Antonio area, which is a rather healthy proportion to be seeing at this range.

The forecast for early next week depends somewhat on how quickly the weekend rains come to an end, but drier weather is favored as the core of the subtropical jet displaces south of the area. Temperatures are forecast to be near to slightly below seasonal norms, with highs in the 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Surface ridging over TX will keep a light NE wind over Central TX with many areas along I-35 going to light and variable. Winds will gradually turn more southerly tonight into Thursday but should remain mostly light. No low clouds are expected through the period, and high level clouds should be mostly absent as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 53 81 55 72 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 49 81 54 73 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 80 56 73 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 53 79 51 67 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 58 79 55 71 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 50 80 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 53 79 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 50 81 54 73 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 50 82 56 75 / 0 0 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 54 79 57 74 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 56 80 59 75 / 0 0 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.