textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A very humid and unsettled weather pattern remains in place through the middle of next week with daily rain and thunderstorm chances

- Multiple opportunities for strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall is expected; Sunday into Sunday night and Tuesday to Wednesday may be the time windows to monitor most

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Yesterday's shower and non-severe thunderstorm activity had peaked from the afternoon into the early evening with a couple locations picking up 1.5 or more inches of rain in a short time. Overnight into this morning, some lingering showers and an isolated storm remains possible. The light to moderate onshore flow will keep a very humid and warm airmass over the region with a deep warm cloud layer and PWATs that are in the 85 to 95 percentile range during this time of year. Scattered rain showers and storms will again flare up from this afternoon through early evening with daytime heating. Like yesterday, the area wind shear will remain weak and should keep storm activity non-severe. However, storms could again become efficient rainfall producers with some isolated pockets that produce a quick 1 to 3 inches. Storms could be capable of gusty winds as well into the 40 mph range. Anticipate a general decrease in areal coverage toward and beyond sunset tonight but there will again be some lingering isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a storm or two remaining into and during the overnight.

Saturday is not much of a change either as warm air advection will continue to drive most of the rain and storm chances across the region through the day. While there is a subtle uptick in the southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the late arriving shortwave from the west, deep layer shear will remain of 30 kt or less across the region through the afternoon. This should help to maintain storm activity below severe limits through the day. However, efficient rains could still be possible once more with locally heavier downpours. The primary severe risk through Saturday afternoon will focus across West Texas near the dryline and where the forcing is strongest at that time in association with a nearing shortwave. Concerns for severe weather in the Southern Edwards Plateau will wait until after dark and this will be addressed below in the long term discussion.

High temperatures in the short term range from the mid 70s across the Hill Country to the low to mid 80s elsewhere while overnight lows will be in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Clouds will remain common, with ceilings becoming the lowest overnight into each morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Saturday night into the overnight early Sunday could see ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms from West Texas approach and enter into the Southern Edwards Plateau. This is where the bulk shear would be strongest across our region with the closer proximity to the shortwave, with that stronger southwesterly flow aloft. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threat with this activity. A weakening trend then occurs as this activity advances eastward into and across the Hill Country where the shear levels drop off and the instability becomes lower, especially given the early morning timeframe.

Another embedded shortwave within the southwest flow will approach from Sunday into Sunday night but this time will trend a little closer and more aligned to our region. This brings a stronger southwest flow aloft and better shear to the area. The dryline is also expected to move closer in proximity and should serve as a focal point, in addition to the Mexico higher terrain, for storms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Instability also increases with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg pooling in our western tier counties ahead of the development of these storms. The initial activity developing out west then would advance eastward into the Sunday evening and night period with a lingering severe risk but this could start to diminish overnight as instability wanes for areas farther to the east. Large hail and damaging winds would likely be the greatest severe hazards. Storms could produce heavy rainfall as well with rainfall rates enough that may result in isolated flash flooding. While the latest Day 4 severe Weather Outlook from SPC concentrates the highest severe risk across the region along and to the north of the I-10/Highway 90 corridor, it could need adjusting south along the Rio Grande with the support from the earliest output from the 60 hour short term guidance members.

The longwave troughing across the Desert Southwest will stay slow and eventually pivots towards the east-northeast sometime around midweek. This will keep a southwesterly flow in place aloft across South-Central Texas and daily rain chances for portions of the region. However, Monday through Monday night looks to remain the driest period as the guidance are not showing the arrival of a shortwave during that time. Tuesday through Wednesday is the next period to monitor for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall across portions of the region pending on the arrival of any additional shortwave energy, the placement of the dryline, and a Pacific front advancing through Central Texas that eventually will try to overtake the dryline. The SPC highlights a potential risk area for severe weather across the Hill Country Tuesday and the Austin area eastward into the coastal plains on Wednesday.

Temperatures trend slightly above average with afternoon highs in the 80s for most. Overnights remain warm and very humid with the mornings lows falling into the 60s to low 70s. Nights generally remain mostly cloudy to overcast while some breaks during the afternoons lend to partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Keep up with the forecast through the weekend into the middle of next week. Each day's rain chances and overall risk with severe weather or locally heavy rain may be contingent on how the day before plays out. Have a way to receive warning information!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

MVFR and IFR conditions are forecast overnight through midday Friday. Some light showers may affect the I-35 sites for same time frame. VFR conditions return around 18Z Friday or shortly after. Some shower activity may be around the I-35 terminals early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop and affect the I-35 terminals with highest probability around 20Z to 24Z. Stronger storms could produce wind gusts up to 35 knots in addition to reducing visibilities as they move over the terminals. MVFR conditions return late Friday night to the I-35 airports. Southeast flow stays through the forecast period with speeds ranging from 6 to 12 knots during the day on Friday. Light winds of 6 knots or less for the overnight period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 81 67 82 69 / 50 30 40 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 66 82 69 / 50 20 40 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 66 82 69 / 50 20 40 40 Burnet Muni Airport 78 64 79 67 / 30 20 40 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 68 81 69 / 10 40 30 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 66 81 68 / 50 30 40 40 Hondo Muni Airport 80 65 81 67 / 50 30 50 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 65 82 69 / 50 20 40 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 67 83 70 / 50 20 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 67 81 69 / 50 20 50 40 Stinson Muni Airport 81 68 82 70 / 50 20 40 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.