textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Hot and dry weather continues today and early Saturday.

- A weak front brings a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday.

- Hot and dry weather persists into early August.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Mid-level ridging continues to shift west today eventually making way for a trough to dig into the Ohio Valley sending a weak front our way. This feature will bring low chances for rain on Saturday across the majority of South Central Texas. The timing of the front will play an important role regarding forecast temperatures and any potential shower and thunderstorm activity. Most guidance brings this feature into our area in the late afternoon during peak heating giving higher confidence of shower and storm development, though if the front slows down and arrives later there may be less coverage of showers/storms. Rain amounts will generally range from 0.5-1.25 inches with any activity, though some isolated pockets above 2 inches will be possible. Storms will be moving with the front so a southward progression is expected, though the feature may stall somewhere near the southern boarder of our forecast area Sunday morning.

As mentioned previously, the timing of the front will also have an impact on temperatures which is highlighted by high spread in model guidance for highs tomorrow. There could be a spike in temperatures/heat indices before the front arrives but greater consensus indicates a seasonably hot day with heat index values just below Heat Advisory criteria.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Little change in temperature is seen Sunday though drier air and a light northerly wind will help keep heat index values a few degrees lower than previous days. The subtropical ridge then extends back over the area next week favoring a dry pattern through Friday. Southerly flow reestablishes by Monday afternoon with an uptick in heat indices expected. Continue to practice heat safety and stay cool and hydrated.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A few changes were made the previous forecast, but it's very similar to what was used for the 00Z TAF package. Opted to add a TEMPO for showers at AUS this morning as guidance has trended a bit wetter through mid to late morning. The afternoon PROB30s at AUS, SAT, and SSF have been maintained, but a TEMPO group was used at DRT as confidence in storms increases for late afternoon into early evening. Winds will shift from southwesterly to westerly and eventually northeasterly by the end of the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 96 77 101 76 / 30 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 98 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 98 78 100 76 / 20 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 99 72 / 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 77 101 77 / 10 30 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 75 99 75 / 30 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 76 100 75 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 77 101 75 / 20 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 99 78 101 76 / 20 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 99 80 101 78 / 20 30 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 99 80 101 78 / 20 20 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.