textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Rain chances will spread east across South-Central Texas today and Sunday. A few strong storms possible Sunday over the Coastal Plains.

- Cooler air beginning to move in from the north Sunday.

- Much cooler and dry for early next week, with rain chances returning Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The ridge axis aloft is over east TX and will continue to move eastward today. Moving in behind this feature a shortwave trough is generating thunderstorms over west TX. There is a stationary front stretched across the state that cuts through our CWA from Lavaca County to Kerr County and out to NM. The storms out west have formed in the vicinity of this boundary. The upper level shortwave trough will push across our CWA today and continue to generate showers and isolated thunderstorms along the stationary front. Rain chances will spread from the northwest to the east through the day. The shortwave will lift toward the northeast taking the energy from lift into central and north TX leaving only 20%-30% POPs. A deeper shortwave will move into the region tonight. This feature will bring likely showers and thunderstorms tonight and Sunday. The stationary front will push back to the northeast as a warm front Sunday. This could act as a focus for thunderstorms and there is a low chance for some storms to be strong to severe over the Coastal Plains. PW values look above normal, but not excessive. Rainfall totals don't look like they will cause any significant impacts. However, thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours. Cloudy skies and showers will keep high temperatures cool Saturday. The warm front will keep temperatures warm overnight and provide a gradient of highs Sunday with warmer temperatures southwest and cooler northeast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Sunday night winds will switch to northeasterly pushing the showers out of the area and bringing cooler, drier air. An upper level ridge will move in starting Monday bringing dry weather back that will continue through the day Wednesday. Moisture will surge from the Gulf bringing low chances for rain Thursday and Friday.

Monday the northeasterly winds will bring the cooler, drier air. Models are showing cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday and they have continued to trend lower the last few days. Monday highs will not reach 60 everywhere except the southern Rio Grande Plains. The low level flow will become easterly to southeasterly starting Wednesday and warmer air will return for the rest of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions continue overnight though ceilings gradually lower over the Edwards Plateau through mid-morning as light showers enter the area from the west. MVFR ceilings likely develop over KDRT sometime mid-morning to mid-afternoon then briefly lift to VFR through early evening. Some isolated, light showers may impact I-35 terminals in the afternoon, but higher confidence for these locations begins this evening when VCSH or -SHRA have been included. MVFR to IFR ceilings first develop over the Hill Country into the I- 35 corridor this evening, eventually expanding over much of the area and dropping as low as LIFR levels just beyond the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 67 55 63 48 / 20 80 90 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 54 64 47 / 20 80 90 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 57 67 48 / 40 90 100 30 Burnet Muni Airport 65 54 61 46 / 20 80 90 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 72 61 76 54 / 30 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 51 60 45 / 10 80 90 40 Hondo Muni Airport 72 61 73 50 / 20 70 80 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 56 66 47 / 30 80 100 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 56 66 49 / 10 70 100 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 59 69 50 / 30 80 100 20 Stinson Muni Airport 72 61 71 52 / 30 70 90 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.