textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through the week, with daily max records possible through Saturday

- A strong cold front arrives late Sunday

- A near widespread freeze is possible Tuesday morning

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Fog forecasting has been a challenge this week. Given the very warm and moist conditions at low levels, we'll assume a similarly difficult to predict scenario where areas of fog are possible but not necessarily inevitable. Light winds and high dew points in the 50s to low 60s could support fog just about anywhere in the CWA and even some dense fog. Will favor persistence and avoid the mention of dense fog, given only a few areas seeing it in the CWA this morning.

The upper ridge will maintain a strong amplitude over TX today but gets flattened a bit by Friday. Rather than having a moderating impact on our area temperatures, the low level winds will become more southwest, bringing hot Mexican plateau air into the region to make for what should be the hottest days of the week if not month for Friday afternoon. Lower amounts of moisture in the air could help with lower overnight minimums however, and perhaps we'll see less fog.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Another day of near record high temperatures is expected Saturday, but less of a SW component in low level winds should have the maxes fall a few degrees shy of those expected Friday. As a polar trough approaches Sunday, the surface winds should become stronger onshore, leading to more daytime cloudiness, lower maxes, and perhaps an episode of morning drizzle. This polar trough is quite sharp over the northern plains states with strong fetch of Canadian air to move into state late Sunday. A brief round of showers could announce the front as it reaches South TX, and this may be the last rain day of the year. Little or no rains are expected over the Hill Country or Edwards Plateau. Strong winds should follow the front mainly in the overnight hours, but gusty and dry conditions could lead to elevated fire weather concerns during the midday hours Monday. With dprog/dt trends on the polar trough becoming more sharp there could be an opportunity for the coldest min temps of the season by Tuesday. Roughly half the forecast area has yet to see a first freeze, so we may see this cold air mass finish out our Freeze Warning program for the cold season either Tuesday or Wednesday morning. Temperatures should recover back to more seasonably cool by Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Low stratus is forecast to gradually develop through 09Z across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor, and Hill Country, spreading westward to the Rio Grande 09Z-12Z Wednesday. HREF is indicating a 70-100% chance of LIFR ceilings developing at most locations, including at AUS and SAT. 00Z HREF probabilities of visibilities less than 1SM have increased slightly from the 12Z run, around 50% at AUS and 70% at SAT. Conditions are forecast to slowly improve 15Z-19Z Thursday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1020 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Record High Temperatures

12-25 12-26 12-27 Austin Bergstrom 91 (1955) 85 (2016) 82 (2024) Austin Camp Mabry 90 (1955) 84 (2016) 79 (2021/1954) San Antonio 90 (1955) 83 (2016/2008) 82 (2005) Del Rio 87 (1955) 80 (2024) 84 (2005)

Record High Minimum Temperatures 12-25 12-26 12-27 Austin Bergstrom 68 (2016) 73 (2015) 68 (1971) Austin Camp Mabry 68 (2016) 70 (2016) 67 (2021) San Antonio 67 (2016) 71 (2015) 68 (1971) Del Rio 63 (2015) 60 (2021) 65 (2019)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 62 79 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 61 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 62 79 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 79 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 82 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 80 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 60 79 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 61 80 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 63 79 64 80 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 64 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.