textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front and northwest flow aloft brings a good chance for widespread precipitation Sunday night into early Monday morning.

-Seasonable temperatures along with dry weather are expected next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Made a few slight adjustments to the forecast this morning given current conditions. An outflow boundary from late day storms in Oklahoma and North Texas yesterday has pushed south into the region and has started to spark some isolated rain showers and a storm or two. These showers/cells mainly will be brief as they lose connection with outflow continuing to push southward but additional development is possible along the boundary itself for the next few hours. Added 20 PoPs to the region to reflect this. Additionally, added patchy to areas of fog for the next few hours with the current visibilities across the region and the very low cloud ceilings. Raised dew points as a result as well and the temperatures have been slightly adjusted for this morning through this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Our rain chances have dwindled for Saturday as the upper low we've been watching the last couple days continues to trend further south and weaker, opening up late this evening through Saturday morning. Nevertheless, we will still carry a low to medium chance for showers and storms this evening, primarily over the Rio Grande Plains and south of Highway 90. The upper low is rather easy to pick out on GOES-19, centered over Alpine Texas on this Friday evening. Some showers and storms have develop ahead of the low, but coverage is pretty weak. Southwest flow aloft will continue into Saturday, so low clouds in the morning and continued afternoon clouds can be expected. Saturday has trended drier in recent forecasts and the NBM has continued that trend as well. Will continue to carry 20% PoPs for the southern half of the region, but suspect most will remain dry.

Sunday, things start to get interesting again as an impressive upstream wave slides south as a trough digs over the southeastern CONUS Sunday into Monday. Sunday will be the hotter day of the weekend with morning clouds east, followed by afternoon sunshine. By late afternoon and early evening, a frontal boundary will begin to approach from the north, pushing through all of south central Texas by early Monday morning. Models continue to trend even stronger with this frontal boundary and the convection associated with it. The Storm Prediction Center has all of our region in a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) and portions of the Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and northern I-35 Corridor in a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning. The greatest concerns look to be large hail and damaging winds as storms developing along the front will grow upscale rather quickly.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Any lingering showers and storms should be out of the region by late Monday morning, and with light northwest flow aloft Monday, highs will climb into the 80s again along with mostly sunny skies. There may be a low end chance for some pop up showers or storms Monday afternoon, but for now the forecast remains dry.

Beyond Monday, a rather benign weather pattern sets up for the first time in awhile, with dry weather and seasonable conditions expected through late week. An active pattern may return by next weekend into the following week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Low IFR to LIFR ceilings continue to spread west and may reach KDRT for the start of the forecast at 12Z. Areas of fog are noted in most locations except over the Rio Grande Plains and will likely continue through around 15Z before visibility improves. Expect ceilings to dissipate and lift from mid to late morning with VFR conditions returning across all of South Central Texas for this afternoon. Some light showers may impact I-35 terminals this morning, though confidence is low. Drier conditions are expected for the afternoon into Sunday along with southerly wind remaining under 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 71 91 68 / 10 0 20 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 71 91 68 / 20 0 10 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 69 91 68 / 20 0 0 80 Burnet Muni Airport 87 69 89 65 / 10 0 30 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 71 94 69 / 0 0 0 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 70 89 66 / 10 0 20 80 Hondo Muni Airport 87 69 90 68 / 20 0 0 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 70 91 68 / 20 0 0 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 70 89 68 / 20 0 10 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 71 91 69 / 20 0 0 70 Stinson Muni Airport 90 71 92 70 / 20 0 0 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.