textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for locally heavy rain across the area along and north of I-10/Hwy 90 through this evening.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely into early evening. Some could be strong to severe from San Antonio to the Coastal Plains.

- Dry and cooler weather for the weekend with a warming trend for next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

There a couple of severe thunderstorms moving across the area. These storms are capable of producing hail up to ping pong ball size. They are moving toward the east and may last for another hour. We are not seeing any additional development. We expect to transition to heavy rain storms over the next few hours.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

An upper trough is moving across the Gulf of California and the flow over TX is becoming southwesterly. The front that moved through our CWA Wednesday has stalled across South Texas and northeastern Mexico. Winds across the area are from the northeast which has brought cooler air. Dewpoints showed an initial drop, but have rebounded and are in the 60s. The deeper atmosphere is very moist with PW at DRT this evening 1.80" which is above the 90th percentile of the observation database. The upper trough will move across TX today providing a lifting mechanism to interact with our very moist airmass. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of this period. Some storms will produce locally heavy rain. We will continue the Flood Watch for the area along and north of I-10/Hwy 90. For the daytime hours today, the heaviest rain should be from the Hill Country to the Coastal Plains. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible today through this evening which will be 2-4 inches when added to rain from Thursday night. There may be a few spots that get up to 6 inches. In addition to the flood threat, there may be enough CAPE and shear to generate a few severe thunderstorms from San Antonio to the Coastal Plains. All severe modes are possible, the risk is Level 1. North- northeasterly winds will bring a more stable airmass to the region tonight. Some showers and thunderstorms will linger across the east until around midnight, but shouldn't produce much more rain. Cooler air will move in. Lows Saturday morning will range from the mid 40s over the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country to the mid 50s along the Rio Grande. Saturday will be dry and mostly sunny. Highs will remain on the cool side mostly in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Saturday night an upper ridge will start to build over TX from the west. Surface high pressure will move across the area. Sunday morning will be a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday, but then we will begin to warm back up. Dry weather will continue into the middle of the week. Highs will be back to well above normal by Tuesday. Wednesday a dryline will bring low rain chances to the east. Thursday another frontal boundary will bring more widespread, but still low, chances for showers and storms. Cooler air will move in behind this front bringing temperatures back down to near normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are scattered across the region. Storms are moving through the San Antonio area at this time and should reach Austin within a couple of hours. There are also showers and storms in Mexico moving toward DRT. All sites will have off and on convection through the night and day. Ceilings and visibilities will vary between IFR and LIFR with occasional TSRA and RA. We should see some improvement by late evening, but no VFR in this TAF period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 52 74 52 / 100 40 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 52 73 50 / 100 40 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 52 74 50 / 100 30 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 60 50 72 51 / 100 30 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 55 73 54 / 90 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 50 72 50 / 100 40 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 66 50 73 48 / 90 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 52 74 50 / 100 30 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 53 73 50 / 100 50 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 53 74 52 / 100 20 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 53 74 52 / 100 20 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209- 221-223.