textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly Easter Sunday through Tuesday before temps return to seasonable levels mid week.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening near the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau.

- Widespread rain chances this weekend with heavy rainfall possible.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Current radar shows several pockets of drizzle or light rain showers as the atmosphere remains very moist across the area. Have added mention of this in the forecast until this evening. Otherwise our main focus this evening is a strong mid to upper level trough moving over the Plains. Majority of the energy associated with this trough should stay well north of our area and Texas. However, enough divergence aloft and heating commencing over West Texas should help to initiate scattered thunderstorms along a dry line in the late afternoon/evening. The main question then becomes how far east do the storms make it? Earlier runs of Several Hi-Res models were suggesting the storms that fire over West Texas and the Serranias del Burro Mountain range could make it into Val Verde county, Southern Edwards Plateau and possibly the Western Hill Country. However, the last several model runs are now showing these same storms remaining west and staying out of Val Verde county. Severe parameters look rather decent if any of the storms could take advantage with SBCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/kg along with steep mid level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km and lastly effective bulk shear approaching 40 kt. So the main risk would be large hail and damaging winds and SPC has this area and parts of Edwards and Kinney county in a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms. Depending on the evolution of these storms could really impact the storm potential for areas to the east and I-35 Corridor as a secondary batch of storms forms out ahead of a cold front that should swing through the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Tonight will remain very mild as clouds and moisture help to limit temps from dropping much with many remaining in the mid to upper 60s.

Saturday the aforementioned cold front should be on our doorstep across the area with progression expected from northwest to southeast. As this occurs thunderstorms are expected to erupt out and ahead of this front. There still is some uncertainty regarding the severe weather potential as most of the better forcing occurs to our southeast and the timing of the front moving across in the morning lowers confidence some as well. As such SPC has trimmed back our severe risk which now just encompasses mainly areas along and east of a San Antonio to Austin line. The main risk at this point is damaging winds as storms may reintensify as they encounter better forcing across this area. Additionally, there is a possibility that this front slows down and stalls somewhere over the area. If that were to occur as some models were suggesting earlier, then heavy rainfall becomes the main threat. WPC currently has all of the area in a level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall. PWAT values are in the 1.5 to 1.8 in range which is in the 99th percentile of the historical climatology. So its certainly not out of the question that these storms will have abundant moisture to work with. overall most models show total QPF anywhere from half an inch over the western parts of the area to as high as 2 inches across our eastern areas. Temperatures will also return to more seasonable levels as rain keeps the air much cooler then the past few days as highs will struggle to reach the 70s (behind the front) and low 80s (out ahead of the front).

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

With the front possibly hanging around the area we could see more showers form off and on again throughout the day Sunday and lingering into early Monday. Hopefully as we get closer models can nail down what this front will try to do. Regardless, expect much cooler temps behind the front with highs Sunday struggling to get out of the 60s with areas across the Hill Country remaining in the upper 50s under overcast skies. Additionally, it could be somewhat breezy across the eastern two thirds of the area leading to a chilly Easter Sunday. Temps don't moderate much with overcast skies remaining as the front sits just off to our south taking all the rain chances with it. Expect highs Monday just a few degrees warmer as we transition from northerly low level flow and into easterly helping the area to remain dry. It looks like we stay in easterly flow until Wednesday as low pressure across the plains and upper level ridging help to keep westerly/northwesterly flow locked in place aloft thus limiting a rapid warmup over our area. Similarly, Global Models are showing a low forming over the Baja peninsula mid week and then moving across Mexico and into West Texas. Moisture at the surface looks fairly limited however there's enough vorticity and mid-level moisture to wring out a few showers or sprinkles. Kept pops around 20% to account for this low uncertainty. Otherwise expect a return to more seasonable temps with highs in the upper 70/low 80s and lows in the 60s with periodic rain chances possible beyond Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the area sites for most of the afternoon and part of this evening. A breezy and gusty wind flow of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 26 knots is forecast to prevail through this evening. Late this evening, southerly winds drop a few knots with gusts less than 20 knots for the late tonight to Saturday morning period. MVFR cigs return to the area terminals late evening and remain through Saturday afternoon. A cold front is forecast to push across South Central Texas late morning into the early and middle part of the day on Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast ahead and along the frontal boundary. Some of the stronger storms could be severe and produce large hail, cloud to ground lightning and gusts around the 40 knots mark. A northerly wind shift is forecast to take place in the wake of the front with prevailing winds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 69 77 54 70 / 50 90 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 69 79 53 68 / 50 100 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 80 53 67 / 50 90 40 30 Burnet Muni Airport 62 72 51 66 / 70 90 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 77 57 64 / 70 70 40 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 75 52 66 / 60 100 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 68 78 53 63 / 60 80 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 80 53 67 / 40 90 30 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 83 55 69 / 20 90 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 80 55 65 / 50 80 40 30 Stinson Muni Airport 71 81 57 66 / 40 80 40 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.