textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Travel conditions will continue to worsen tonight with travel becoming nearly impossible for many areas. Additional bands of freezing rain are sleet are forecast to spread across the area this evening through tonight. Icy precipitation continues into early Sunday morning, but travel impacts could linger into Monday and Tuesday on residual icy roads.

- Dangerous cold is forecast across South-Central Texas beginning tonight. Wind chills as low as 5 below zero may cause hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long-duration freeze is forecast for portions of the Hill Country and Austin metro through at least Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 124 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

As of 1 PM CST Saturday, freezing temperatures had spread across the entirety of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, and were pushing across the I-35 corridor. As anticipated, this cold air has been on the colder and faster side of the model guidance, including the hi-res models. While a breezy 10-20 mph north wind continues at the surface, the southerly transport of moisture atop the cold air continues to produce intermittent showers and drizzle over the area this afternoon. This is adding to ice accumulations particularly over the Hill Country where temperatures in the mid to low-20s this afternoon are likely allowing for highly efficient ice accretion. Travel conditions are deteriorating as showers contribute more freezing rain and standing water from last night's locally heavy rains freezes over, and icing is being observed on increasingly longer stretches of roads and highways.

Aircraft observations from AUS and SAT provide a glimpse of the sharp contrast between the frigid Arctic air near the surface and warmer 50-degree air about 3 kft above. This warm nose aloft is expected to persist through tonight, so we expect that precipitation will mostly stay icy. Some of the stronger showers may fold in a wintry mix as rising air locally cools temperatures aloft, but freezing rain will be the predominant precipitation type during the daytime.

Temperatures will continue to plunge with the line of freezing temperatures progressing south. We anticipate that temperatures along Highway 90, throughout San Antonio, and in portions of the Coastal Plains will have gone below freezing by 6 PM CST, with the remainder of the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains hitting that mark overnight.

Tonight, the upper-air disturbance over northern Mexico moves across the Big Bend area and into our region. This injection of energy will result in bands of precipitation moving across our area beginning this evening and continuing through the early morning hours. This episode of precipitation will likely bring the highest quantities of freezing rain and sleet to much of South-Central Texas. To the north, transitions to a sleet/freezing rain mix are possible after midnight mainly near the Austin area, Highland Lakes, and along the TX-71 corridor. Elsewhere, freezing rain may be favored throughout the night. Given the amount of ascent aloft, a few isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible in the stronger portions of the icy precipitation bands, and we have already seen lightning with the relatively lighter activity so far this afternoon. A few snow flurries are possible towards the tail end of the precipitation event, but snow accumulations are forecast to be negligible compared to that of ice and sleet.

Total ice accumulations from this event have trended upwards. Given very low surface temperatures and a steady north wind, ice accretion should remain efficient. Freezing of residual water from heavy rains last night, particularly between the Hill Country and Austin area, may also cause greater ice accumulations than models are indicating off new precipitation alone. For these reasons, an Ice Storm Warning was issued for the Hill Country and Austin area. Within this region, we are forecasting ice amounts of 1/4 inch with isolated totals of 1/2 inch, in addition to any freezing of standing water. This will cause travel to become nearly impossible and may cause significant icing impacts. Elsewhere, ice accumulations of 1/10 to 1/4 inch are expected with isolated accumulations of 1/4 to 1/2 inch possible across the Winter Storm Warning areas, and up to 1/10 inch in the Winter Weather Advisory area in the Rio Grande Plains. Along with the precipitation, wind chills tonight are expected to reach hazardous levels, with values as low as near-zero in the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau, and single-digits to teens elsewhere. These conditions may cause hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken. Keep people, pets, plants, and pipes warm, and practice safe use of space heaters.

Precipitation will taper off Sunday morning as dry and sinking air takes the place of the outgoing upper-air disturbance and persists into midweek. Sunny skies will start to filter in from the west by Sunday afternoon. However, hazardous travel conditions are expected to linger as temperatures are not expected to climb much during the day. Over the southern Edwards Plateau and areas generally north of I-10, temperatures are forecast to remain below freezing throughout Sunday. While the added sun may help reduce some ice, icing concerns continue so long as sub-freezing temperatures persist, prolonging travel impacts. To the south, we do anticipate that highs will get into the mid-30s to low-40s during the afternoon.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 124 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Temperatures will remain colder than average during the coming week. Hazardous overnight temperatures are forecast to continue through Monday morning. Sunday evening to Monday morning is expected to be the coldest stretch of this cold air outbreak with lows in the single digits over the Hill Country to the teens and low 20s elsewhere along with wind chills largely in the single-digits. Dangerously cold temperatures may also occur Monday night into Tuesday morning, particularly over the northern half of the CWA where wind chills could once again reach the single digits.. An extension of the Extreme Cold Warning to cover that period is possible.

A large and expansive trough across much of CONUS will keep us in a cool pattern, slowing the rate of warming in our area after the bulk of the frigid Arctic airmass passes. Portions of the Hill Country and Austin area are forecast to remain below freezing until Tuesday afternoon, representing about 72 consecutive hours of subfreezing conditions. This will prolong potentially hazardous travel conditions even in the absence of any new precipitation, especially on less traveled roads and areas that remain in the shade. While overnight hard freezes look to continue through midweek, highs are forecast to rise into the upper 40s and 50s around Wednesday/Thursday.

Given that the weather pattern supports northerly flow persisting over the Central US, there is window of opportunity for another push of cold air later in the week. There is considerable uncertainty in the late week period, but there is some support for a cold front and upper-level trough pushing over the area Friday into Saturday. Given cold temperatures aloft, this could result in mixed or wintry precipitation for portions of South-Central Texas. Forecasts in the coming days will fine tune the details.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The going forecast remains on track, with freezing rain and drizzle expected through the next 12 hours or so before precipitation ends from west to east tomorrow morning. Winds will remain sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts through the period. Ceilings should improve by mid to late morning Sunday, but winds will remain gusty.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 20 32 16 34 / 100 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 21 32 15 33 / 100 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 22 34 17 37 / 100 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 15 28 13 31 / 100 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 25 41 22 43 / 90 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 16 28 13 30 / 100 20 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 23 37 15 39 / 90 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 21 33 16 36 / 100 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 23 33 17 34 / 90 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 24 36 18 37 / 90 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 26 38 20 38 / 90 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ171>173-184>192- 206.

Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Monday for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for TXZ183-193-194- 202>205-207>209-220>225.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TXZ217>219-228.