textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Low threat for isolated strong to severe storms over the Rio Grande plains this afternoon and early evening.

- Another chance for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall appears possible Friday night into early Saturday for areas generally along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.

- A cold front and active northwest flow aloft brings another chance for fairly widespread precipitation Sunday night into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Surface high pressure remains intact across south central Texas this afternoon. This along with persistent cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers and a few storms has been enough to keep early afternoon temperatures in the upper 50s to near 70 degrees. Earlier updates were made to lower highs for today and we may opt for another update based on continued cloud cover. We will continue to monitor convective trends west of the Rio Grande this afternoon and early evening in case a strong storm survives long enough to move into the Rio Grande plains. Confidence is fairly low in this, but a strong to severe storm can't be completely ruled out. Overnight and morning clouds will persist tonight into Friday for mild overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Friday, southwest flow aloft in advance of an upper low approaching from the west will lead to a chance for showers and storms mainly from the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. As the upper low continue to move in from the west Friday evening into Saturday, rain chances will spread back westward into the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains region. There remains some uncertainty with regards to the severe weather potential at this time. As of now, would tend to favor portions of the Rio Grande plains and coastal plains mainly during the evening hours into Saturday morning. However, some strong to severe storms could form farther north of this area. In addition, we do have some concerns for some locally heavy rainfall as well. A northward return of deep moisture will bring precipitable water values up into the 1.5" - near 2" range late Friday into early Saturday. If strong to intense convective clusters form, increased rainfall rates will lead to isolated instances of flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Temperatures on Sunday briefly warm into the mid 80s to mid 90s before a cold front moves through the region Sunday night. We should see fairly widespread precipitation chances as the front and unstable northwest flow aloft remain over the region Sunday night into early Monday morning. While we can't rule out a strong storm or two along the boundary, details remain uncertain that far out in time. Highs trend downward into the 80s behind the front on Monday, with a slow warming trend in store as we head into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Low clouds are hanging in at DRT and, ceilings will stay at best MVFR until Friday afternoon. Most of that time they will be IFR.

The Austin and San Antonio airports are VFR, but MVFR ceilings will redevelop later this evening. In San Antonio ceilings will drop to IFR overnight. VFR conditions will return late afternoon Friday.

At all sites there will be around 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms during the day Friday. If any convection moves across an airport rain could drop visibility to MVFR. There will be a better chance for storms Friday evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 63 79 67 85 / 10 30 60 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 64 79 68 85 / 10 30 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 63 79 67 85 / 0 30 60 30 Burnet Muni Airport 59 77 64 84 / 10 30 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 64 83 66 87 / 10 20 50 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 61 78 66 84 / 10 40 60 30 Hondo Muni Airport 64 79 67 85 / 0 20 60 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 79 67 85 / 10 30 60 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 77 68 83 / 0 40 60 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 80 68 86 / 0 20 60 20 Stinson Muni Airport 65 80 68 85 / 0 20 70 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.