textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Not as hot today as tropical moisture and a chance of convection moves inland.

- Daily rain chances could lead to cumulative heavy rainfall totals over 3 inches by Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Sunday will start the trend towards higher rain and storm chances, but the best chances will likely trend north of our region into northeast Texas. Nevertheless, with high PWATs and adequate instability, we will carry at least 20% PoPs for most areas Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday and Tuesday are when things get more interesting. The GFS and ECMWF and their parent ensembles have started to come into better agreement on the evolution of the large scale pattern Monday- Wednesday. A mid-level low over the southeastern CONUS will retrograde around the southern periphery of the Subtropical High over the Northern Plains states, starting in Tennessee on Monday, and shifting west through Oklahoma by late Wednesday. Meanwhile, over the Gulf, another plume of Saharan Dust is forecast by NASA's Dust AOT to move into southeast Texas Monday and Tuesday. At this time, it is difficult to say how much this will impact rain and storm chances given high PWATs and adequate mid-level forcing for locally heavy rainfall. There is concern that the forecast PoPs are a bit aggressive given how Saharan Dust can impact the mid levels and dry them out and limit convective development. For now, will continue to carry 40-60% PoPs Monday and Tuesday, with a notable drying trend starting Wednesday. Heavy rain and flooding concerns are certainly a possibility and trends will have to be monitored closely in how this SAL plume evolves as it moves east over the Atlantic. Beyond Wednesday, hotter and drier weather is expected along with likely increased humidity in the wake of rainfall from the weekend and early week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail for the most part during this forecast period. However, mid to late afternoon, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast to move into the I-35 corridor. Latest area Doppler radars and satellite imagery are showing shower and storm activity over the Coastal Plains moving northward with ETA along the I-35 sites as early as 20Z. The better chances are for the San Antonio area terminals and therefore the TEMPO groups carrying MVFR cigs. For the Austin area, low confidence is in play and keeping out the mentioning of thunderstorms. Will keep monitoring closely. Southerly wind flow dominates through the period with prevailing speeds around 10 to 14 knots and gusts up to 24 knots. Wind speed relaxes this evening and wind gusts as well. MVFR cigs can't be ruled out Saturday morning during sunrise for the San Antonio area airports. Shower and thunderstorm activity increases on Saturday especially during the afternoon period. More details on this during the next aviation forecast package as we fine tuned the forecast for Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 94 77 94 / 10 30 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 93 76 94 / 10 50 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 74 93 / 0 30 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 94 75 95 / 10 30 50 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 94 77 94 / 0 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 92 / 20 50 40 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 10 40 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 77 95 / 20 30 10 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 91 77 92 / 10 50 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 75 92 77 93 / 10 50 20 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.