textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Increasing risk for heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau...Flood Watch could be needed.

- Best chances for heavy rain Monday night through Thursday night. - Dry weather returns over the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Upper air analysis this evening shows a strong ridge over most of the western half of the country with a closed high over the northern plains. The 500mb flow over Texas however is from the west. The low level flow continues to be from the southeast across South-Central Texas. The airmass over our CWA has recovered from Saturday's convection and is warm and moist. With the upper ridge over the northern plains, a trough will move over Texas from the northeast during the short term. This will bring better chances for convection starting today. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon. Tonight we will see lower level moisture increase with PW values exceeding to over two inches over parts of the CWA. This will lead to chances for locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding. These conditions will continue Tuesday. Rainfall totals for the short term period will range from 1-3 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. WPC has included most of our CWA in the Level 2 (Slight) risk for excessive rainfall Monday and Tuesday. The Monday risk is mostly for the Monday night period. A Flood Watch could be issued later today.

Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal today. With cloudy skies and rain showers Tuesday highs will be cooler with most of the CWA not reaching 90.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A mid-level impulse will rotate slowly around the south side of high and interact with the warm, moist airmass over South-Central Texas Tuesday night into Thursday morning. PW will remain unusually high, and locally heavy rain will continue to be possible. WPC has included the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in the Level 2 (Slight) risk of excessive rainfall and the rest of the area in the Level 1 (Marginal) risk for Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall totals for Wednesday and Thursday will be 0.5-4 inches with the higher amounts where the Level 2 risk is. There also be isolated higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals for the Monday through Thursday period could be 2-6 inches with isolated 8 inches. By late week the upper pattern will start to readjust, but still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will continue out west Friday. The weekend should be dry. With all of the cloudiness and rain high temperatures will be cooler with highs not reaching 90 over parts of the area Wednesday and Thursday and staying below normal through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

We will keep the mention of SHRA out of the aviation forecast for our TAFS through the overnight hours. However, we may need to monitor trends along the Rio Grande as a stray shower could move northward toward the terminal overnight. Otherwise, low cloud development will result in mainly MVFR cigs for all sites. Will continue to monitor for the possibility of some brief IFR cigs near KSAT around 12Z. Afternoon convection is expected today, with AUS seeing the earliest chance, followed by SAT and SSF. This will be handled with PROB30 groups and only minor adjustments have been made to the timing, mainly 18-21Z AUS and 23-03Z for SAT and SSF. Will hold off on a mention of TSRA at DRT through this forecast period, but will likely need to add a mention after 14/06Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 91 74 87 73 / 50 70 90 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 91 74 87 73 / 50 70 90 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 92 74 87 73 / 20 60 70 50 Burnet Muni Airport 89 72 85 71 / 70 70 90 40 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 74 86 72 / 30 60 70 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 90 72 86 71 / 60 70 90 40 Hondo Muni Airport 91 73 86 72 / 10 60 40 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 92 74 87 73 / 40 70 80 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 74 85 74 / 60 60 80 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 76 87 74 / 10 60 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 91 76 88 75 / 10 60 40 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.