textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Scattered spotty showers and isolated thunderstorm activity for portions of the region Today (~10-40% rain chance).

- Drier air arrives, ends rain chances early to midweek, providing cooler mornings, and a return to highs in the 80s for most.

- Low end rain chances (~15-20%) possible late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Expect another mostly cloudy and rather gloomy day for most of today with some peaks of sun trying to break out towards the late afternoon hours. A very ill defined front remains over the TX Coast allowing moisture to continue to be pooled into our area as the front remains close by. We continue to see well above normal moisture for this time of year with PWATS still in the 1.8 to 2.3 inch range with higher PWATS closer to the front and Coastal Plains areas. There remains low to medium (20-40%) rain chances for today and depending on how much sun peaks out we could see scattered showers/storms developing by the morning and tapering off by the early afternoon hours. Best chance right now remains across the Coastal Plains as we shift into the afternoon hours. By tonight we should start to finally see direr air starting to work its way in from the north thus pushing the front and moisture away from our area by Monday morning. This drier air will shut off rain chances and thus a dry, mostly sunny and rather pleasant day can be expected.

Regarding temperatures we should see highs today slightly warmer as we see slightly more sun leading to highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Lows tonight will remain mild with upper 60s to lower 70s common. By monday we should see highs a bit warmer with most reaching the low to mid 80s with upper 80s possible in our western areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Our pleasant weather continues as northerly flow is seen in the lower and middle parts of the atmosphere leading to a continued drying out across our area. This drier air will result in a much more refreshing airmass with cooler mornings and milder afternoons along with much lower humidity. Daily highs stay in the 80s for the while the morning lows dip down as low as the upper 50s across the Hill Country and into the low to mid 60s elsewhere. This begins to change by late week as medium range models start to differ on the evolution of a possible disturbance located over the southwestern Gulf thats associated with the the Central American Gyre. For now this is a bit too far out to put any confidence in a particular model solution. We will continue to keep an eye on this disturbance and watch to see how this unfolds and plays out and what impacts if any this would bring to our local area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A line of showers is noted over the coastal plains east of KAUS for the start of the period, otherwise conditions are mainly dry this morning. Removed the PROB30 from KAUS as confidence for showers have decreased and coverage should be limited across the area throughout the day. MVFR to IFR ceilings have developed over the Hill Country and areas to its east, with low clouds eventually building west mid morning possibly impacting KDRT. KDRT likely returns to VFR first with MVFR ceilings sticking around at I-35 terminals through the afternoon and early evening. North to northeast wind continue through the period, most breezy in the eastern half of the forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 71 86 66 / 40 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 82 69 85 65 / 40 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 82 69 85 65 / 20 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 80 66 83 61 / 40 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 68 86 66 / 50 20 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 68 84 63 / 40 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 84 70 87 65 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 69 86 64 / 30 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 69 86 66 / 40 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 72 86 68 / 20 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 83 72 87 68 / 20 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.