textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Wet, cloudy, and cool this weekend into Monday with steady rain developing by tonight.

- Beneficial rains across the region with manageable rainfall rates.

- Isolated flooding possible where any locally heavier rain aligns.

- Dries out and trends milder mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1223 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

As has been previously mentioned, a shortwave is forecast to eventually amplify and move southward as a nearly cut-off low while it approaches Texas. As it does so it will redirect moisture over our area as mid-level winds shift southwesterly. This will also result in the development of a lee-side trough over the eastern flanks of the Mexican plateau, which in turn increases the supply of low-level moisture streaming from the Gulf. The combination of these two moisture streams overriding atop cool air (isentropic lift) will support a rather broad rain event that may start as early as this morning along the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau. We then expect rain chances to spread eastward across much of South-Central Texas throughout the day and into Saturday night. Because of the extensive cloud deck and rain cooled air highs today are expected to be somewhat cooler then the past few days. We are currently forecasting highs in the low to mid 60s for areas north and west of the I-35 Corridor while areas south of this should see slightly warmer highs in the low to mid 70s as it will take longer to see rain over these areas.

The rains become more widespread throughout the evening and into early Sunday morning. We anticipate rain intensity to remain mostly light to moderate with hourly rates, generally below an inch per hour as instability remains very limited across the area. There is however the possibility that some of the embedded cells could include thunderstorms, which would then enhance locally heavier rain rates, which could reach upwards to the 1 to 2 inch per hour range. It's these cells that we would need to concentrate on for any possible isolated flooding, especially if they enter our urban corridors or begin training over the same areas. As such, WPC continues to include much of the region along and west of the I-35 corridor in a level 1 of 4 risk for flooding today through early Sunday morning. However, the vast majority of the rain, remains of the beneficial variety across our region. We also anticipate Sunday to be a very dreary, damp and downright miserable rainy day. This is also when we expect the bulk of the rain to fall across the entire forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1223 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

By Sunday evening we could see a lull and decrease in rain across our northern and eastern areas including the Austin metro before we see another round of rain form over the Rio Grande and Southern Edwards Plateau areas. This 2nd round should continue pushing eastward late Sunday evening and continuing through the overnight hours into Monday morning. Latest global model ensembles now have this batch of rain sticking around through the day Monday and not clearing until Monday evening. As previously mentioned we could see some heavier embedded cells in this batch of rain that would be capable of producing heavier rainfall rates across locations that are already saturated with earlier rains during the event. WPC highlights a level 1 to 2 risk for flooding across the vast majority of our region from Sunday into Monday. As for amounts, we should see fairly widespread totals in the 1 to 3 inch range with some isolated pockets of up to 5 inches not out of the question for areas that see repeated rounds of rainfall. However, almost everyone should see at least a half inch to an inch when all is said and done. These totals may seem like a lot but we arent expecting any heavy torrential downpours but rather some good old fashioned steady cool rain that will occur over a period of several days rather than all at once.

As far as highs go, with the steady rainfall and extensive cloud cover we may see some areas struggle to break out of the mid 50s for highs with most remaining in the low to mid 60s producing yet another dreary and raw day for Monday across our forecast area. Lows however wont drop off too much as the clouds should keep most of the area fairly insulated and prevent any radiational cooling from happening with most staying in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees. Beyond Monday as we finally begin to dry out we should see highs rebound back near 70 for Tuesday with temps well into the 70s to round out the end of the week along with lows remaining in the 50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

In short, the previous forecast remains on track. Only changes were to tack on a line or two at all sites to account for ceiling changes and rain in the forecast. IFR CIGs are likely after midnight tonight, followed by a chance at LIFR CIGs at DRT. Additionally, wind gusts were added in at SAT and SSF as guidance continues to show northeasterly winds increasing this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 56 66 54 / 20 50 100 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 55 67 53 / 20 50 100 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 55 65 53 / 20 70 100 70 Burnet Muni Airport 67 54 63 53 / 30 70 90 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 66 58 64 58 / 60 100 100 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 54 66 53 / 10 60 90 30 Hondo Muni Airport 72 56 65 55 / 50 90 100 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 55 66 53 / 20 60 100 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 79 58 69 55 / 10 30 90 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 57 65 55 / 30 80 100 80 Stinson Muni Airport 74 59 66 57 / 30 80 100 80

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.