textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Active and unsettled weather pattern to return Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with localized flooding issues possible.

- Warmer and drier weather looks possible by late week.

- Rain chances return over the weekend as we turn the calendar to June.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Regional radar imagery shows lingering showers and storms over the Coastal Plains and Brazos Valley. These should weaken with loss of diurnal heating. Meanwhile, out west, model CAMs are in agreement that some showers and isolated storms will develop and move across the Rio Grande early Tuesday morning. Any showers or storms should weaken and dissipate by mid-morning, allowing the atmosphere to destabilize rather quickly Tuesday afternoon. 00Z hi-res guidance, from the HRRR, to the RRFS, and the FV3/NSSL WRF agree that storms organize out west over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains as early as 19Z, then march eastward as a complex or MCS moves through south central Texas. SPC has a level 1 to 2 of 5 risk for severe storms along and west of US-281 Tuesday afternoon and evening. The primary hazards are large hail and damaging winds. In addition to the severe threat, WPC places the majority of our region within a Slight risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Despite storm movement likely being rather progressive, saturated soils and additional rainfall will likely result in runoff than be absorbed. Any storms should exit the area near or just shortly after sunrise Wednesday. Additional showers and an isolated storm cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon, but the forecast should be dry beyond 18Z Wednesday through the remainder of the short term forecast period.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Thursday looks to be a drier day with weak shortwave ridging noted on the GFS and ECMWF, but the dry forecast is short-lived. An active pattern continues into the weekend and early June as a strong west- southwesterly jet streak at 300mb works through the region. This will result in widespread lift as upper-level divergence spreads over south central Texas this weekend. Scattered showers and storms are expected both Saturday and Sunday followed by the potential for ridging to return for the first couple days of June. For now, confidence beyond the weekend is rather low, so stay tuned for a continued fine tuning of the forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Low clouds continue to develop this morning and we expect MVFR for all TAF sites. The one exception being SSF, where some brief IFR can be expected for the next couple of hours. The line of convection moving into the Rio Grande plains shows a slow weakening trend and with most activity south of DRT, will not mention any SHRA or TSRA this morning. For this afternoon and evening, we still expect to see convection develop and move in from the west. No significant changes to the timing have been made with the latest forecast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 89 71 84 71 / 20 80 60 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 71 84 72 / 20 80 60 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 87 69 84 70 / 20 80 60 30 Burnet Muni Airport 85 68 82 69 / 20 80 50 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 69 89 72 / 60 60 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 70 82 70 / 10 80 60 30 Hondo Muni Airport 84 68 84 70 / 50 70 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 70 84 71 / 20 80 60 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 72 82 71 / 10 80 80 30 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 71 84 72 / 30 80 50 30 Stinson Muni Airport 87 70 84 72 / 30 90 60 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.