textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today through Saturday night with a potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall.

- Warm temperatures through early next week, then much cooler, below average temperatures middle to late next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

An upper level trough moves over the southern Rockies today, then over the southern Plains on Saturday. An unseasonably moist airmass is in place over South Central Texas. A moderate lower level flow will generate showers over the eastern Hill Country to along and east of I-35 this morning, then heating of an unstable airmass will allow for showers and thunderstorms with the activity spreading farther west over the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau late morning into afternoon.

The main show is still on track this evening through early Saturday morning with models and ensembles in rather good agreement. Showers and thunderstorms develop along a Pacific front this afternoon, form into an MCS over the Edwards Plateau early this evening, then move over the Hill Country to I-35 corridor late evening into overnight. The MCS weakens while approaching the US 77 corridor early Saturday morning as the airmass stabilizes. Models and ensembles remain uncertain for the second round. Partial clearing will allow heating to destabilize the airmass along with forcing from a Pacific front, the upper level trough, and a strong upper level jet, showers and thunderstorms should redevelop over the Hill Country to the I-35 corridor in the afternoon, then move east in the evening to exit east of US 77 corridor overnight.

Moderate mid level lapse rates, shear, and instability indicates a potential for strong to severe storms with damaging winds and hail the main threats. Strong forcing of PWs of 1.5 inches will lead to locally heavy rainfall rates. A composite of SPC/WPC outlooks for Friday and Saturday shows slight risks (level 2 of 5) for severe storms and (level 2 of 4) for heavy rains across the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, portions of the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northeast, then to the US 77 corridor and northern Coastal Plains. There are marginal (level 1) risks across the remainder of South Central Texas.

Expected rainfall totals for Friday through Saturday evening are .25" or less over the Winter Garden, 0.5-1.5" along the Highway 90 corridor to the Coastal Plains, and 1-3" Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor north of San Antonio to the US 77 corridor. Locally higher totals of 4+" are possible, especially in areas that see rounds of heavy rain. Soils are dry across the region and any rainfall will be welcomed. However, we are concerned with rainfall rates that may lead to some instances of flash flooding. We continue to hold off on a Flood Watch, but will continue to monitor portions of the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

A dry northwesterly flow aloft keeps rain out of the forecast for Sunday through next week. However, the passage of a cold front may produce a few showers on Tuesday. A warming trend on Sunday into Monday abruptly ends on Tuesday with the cold frontal passage and associated strong cold advection bringing the coldest air of the season for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will be well below late October averages for the middle of week through the end of the month. After a few days of elevated moisture, a return of dry air with minimum humidities in the 20s across most areas on Wednesday along with winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph may result in elevated fire weather conditions.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Low clouds are beginning to form over the escarpment and will spread to the San Antonio and Austin areas over the next couple of hours. MVFR ceilings will last through the morning hours. It will take a few more hours for the clouds to reach DRT and ceilings there will drop to IFR. A cold front will move into West TX tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move into the region starting this afternoon at AUS then to DRT and finally SAT and SSF.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 67 83 64 / 40 80 90 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 66 83 63 / 40 80 90 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 67 85 64 / 20 60 70 40 Burnet Muni Airport 83 65 78 61 / 40 90 80 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 67 87 61 / 20 70 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 64 80 61 / 50 80 90 40 Hondo Muni Airport 89 66 86 61 / 10 60 40 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 67 85 63 / 20 70 80 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 67 81 64 / 40 60 90 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 68 86 65 / 20 60 60 30 Stinson Muni Airport 91 70 88 66 / 20 50 50 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.