textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Major to moderate flooding will continue along the Nueces at and below Asherton through the end of the week.

- A Heat Advisory continues for all of South-Central Texas through 8 PM.

- A sheared and weakening Tropical Storm Bertha moves west over the northwestern Gulf and approaches the middle to upper Texas coast today.

- Scattered tropical downpours and a storm or two favors areas along and south of the I-10/Highway 90 corridor. The most rain associated with Bertha remains farther to the south. Gusts up to 30 mph are possible tonight into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Hot conditions continue today mainly due to elevated heat index values surging from 105 up to 113 across a majority of South Central Texas. While some high clouds associated with a weakening Tropical Storm Bertha are making their way over the area, little relief is expected associated with clouds and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM tonight.

Bertha will continue to move westward today moving over the Texas coast later this afternoon. As its circulation continues inland towards our area, further weakening is expected with the NHC predicting it will be a weak remnant low or dissipate entirely by Friday morning. Northerly wind shear is keeping a majority of the thunderstorms and in turn, heavy rain, south of the main circulation. This is expected to continue as it moves into our area though some showers or spotty tropical downpours cannot be ruled out tonight into Friday morning, mainly favored south of I-10 and the US Highway 90 corridors. Flooding concerns remain low as overall rain amounts should be around a quarter of an inch or less, though any thunderstorms may produce an isolated 2 inches. Additionally, some gusty winds to around 30 mph cannot be ruled out tonight into Friday in the eastern half of the forecast area before this tropical system falls apart.

Clearing skies and hot conditions continue for Friday, though our temperatures do decrease by roughly 5 degrees. Heat indices will still be elevated for the afternoon with much of the area seeing values in the 100 to 105 degrees range which is below Heat Advisory criteria. Breezy southerly flow in the afternoon will become lighter by Friday evening. Warm lows in the 70s are expected as we head into Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Mid-level ridging will dominate much of the Central and Western US through the long term period keeping South-Central Texas seasonably hot and dry. With a drier airmass in place over the region, skies will are forecast to partly cloudy to mostly sunny each day through late next week with a light to moderate south-southeasterly wind. Widespread highs will mainly be in the mid and upper 90s this weekend, then begin to creep up heading into next week. Heat indices will still be in the 100 to 105 degree range for many through the period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon as high clouds increase ahead of T.S. Bertha. We also expect to see some gusty northeast winds develop along I-35 for the afternoon and early evening hours. Low clouds will develop by mid-evening, with MVFR expected for the I-35 sites after 05Z. We can't rule out a stray shower or storm through the overnight hours along I-35. However, confidence is low and will not mention in the current forecast. Low clouds are expected to reach DRT around 11Z. MVFR clouds are likely to remain intact through the morning hours, then cloud bases trend back to VFR in the early afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 100 79 95 77 / 0 30 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 79 95 77 / 0 40 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 78 95 76 / 0 50 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 98 78 93 73 / 0 10 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 80 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 99 79 95 76 / 0 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 101 78 93 75 / 0 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 99 78 95 76 / 0 40 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 99 78 96 76 / 0 50 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 79 94 77 / 0 40 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 79 95 77 / 0 50 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>209-217>225-228.