textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- The forecast remains relatively unchanged with intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms resulting in a dangerous flash flooding threat through Thursday.

- Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely for portions of the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio, including the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande.

- Pockets of an additional 10 to 20 inches of rain are possible within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches.

- Potential for significant downstream river flooding in the Pecos, Rio Grande, Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio river basins.

- Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Torrential rainfall leading to significant flash flooding is ongoing over portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains early this morning as storms have stalled generally along and south of the Balcones Escarpment. High rain rates (up to 3-4 inches an hour) along with slow moving and storms moving over the same areas are bringing considerable flooding to these areas, particularly over Uvalde County. A High Risk (level 4 of 4) for excessive rain continues overnight for along the southern Edwards Plateau and throughout the Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio. Heavy rain leading to flash flooding will be possible outside of this main area, but generally be contained to where a Flash Flood Watch continues through Thursday evening highlighting the potential for life-threatening flash flooding. Additionally, significant downstream river flooding to moderate or major flood stages continue to be possible.

Storm activity is expected to continue through the overnight hours, mainly east of a parked mesoscale convective vortex located over the Rio Grande Plains and the influence from the low level jet. On top of the flooding threat, hodographs show favorable profiles for brief tornadoes in this regime with a few spin ups possible during the overnight hours. Similar to yesterday, we may see a small break this afternoon with thunderstorm activity before it ramps back up this evening in conjunction with the strengthening low level jet. This will keep the potential for considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding likely over areas again in a level 4 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall-- very similar to the locations seen during this overnight hour with the focus in the west over portions of the U.S 90 corridor west of San Antonio including the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Models make it evident that pin- pointing locations for the most extreme rainfall totals is still difficult and will depend mainly on the location of the MCV and orientation of the low level jet. On Thursday, the MCV is generally favored to shift north and west which would shift the heavy rain threat even further west than previous days though the potential for additional flooding continues.

Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a guarantee of your safety! Heed warnings, instructions from local and county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be impossible to spot at night. Make sure you have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings. If you are in a low-lying location or near a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if needed.

Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in the daytime and at night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The heavy rain potential continues Thursday night into Friday, though it is favored further west as the MCV continues to shift west as surface high pressure expands over the southern US into the Gulf. WPC continues the level 3 of 4 risk for excessive rainfall Thursday night into Friday as tropical moisture remains over the area mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau though there is still some time for the most favored locations to change as the overall set up becomes more clear. Given our persistent wet pattern in earlier days, it may not take much additional rainfall for any storms to quickly produce flash flooding.

A decrease in PoPs is seen over eastern areas Friday and over much of South Central Texas this weekend. That said, some guidance wants to hang on to some rain chances, especially in the west during this time so continue to keep up to date with the forecast. The return in drier conditions will be met with the return of higher temperatures with forecast highs back in the 90s for many locations early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Some minor adjustments to the forecast have been made based on recent radar trends. Showers will fill in along I-35 over the next few hours, with TSRA favored 10-16Z SAT and SSF and 14-19Z AUS. We kept a mention of some early morning TSRA at DRT, with a break for the late morning and early afternoon hours. With daytime heating, another round of convection may develop at KDRT. We will continue to monitor radar trends and hi-res models and refine the timing of TSRA this morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 72 87 74 / 80 40 60 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 72 87 74 / 80 40 60 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 82 71 86 73 / 90 50 60 40 Burnet Muni Airport 81 70 84 72 / 90 50 50 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 83 71 84 72 / 90 90 80 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 83 71 86 73 / 80 40 60 30 Hondo Muni Airport 82 70 83 72 / 90 70 70 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 71 86 73 / 80 40 60 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 73 87 75 / 70 20 50 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 73 85 75 / 80 60 60 50 Stinson Muni Airport 83 73 86 75 / 80 60 60 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ171>173-183>192- 202>207-217>219-228.