textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Hottest day of the week Thursday, and heat index values will continue topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range each day through early next week.

- Ambient temperatures ease off Friday into next week as daily rain chances return.

- Strong wind gusts and locally heavy downpours will be possible Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

One more "hotter" day is expected with temperatures a few ticks above normal for early to mid-July as weak mid-level ridging remains intact this afternoon. A plume of SAL dust is noted on satellite imagery, but it is a bit more subtle than recent SAL events. Nevertheless, this will locally enhance ambient air temperatures this afternoon, with highs in the mid to upper 90s to around 100 along the I-35 Corridor. Yesterday, ATT hit 100 for the first time this year, and SAT and AUS could do the same today.

This plume of dust doesn't hang around long as a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf gets funneled northward into South Central Texas on Friday. Moist southeasterly flow from the surface to a bit over 700mb. Long, skinny forecast soundings along with PWATs climbing above 2" on Friday suggest tropical downpours are an increasingly good bet. Additional cloud cover will result in cooler temperatures Friday, but highs still climb into the lower 90s for most. Storms will develop along the middle Texas coast and move inland late Friday morning, bringing with them gusty winds and heavy tropical downpours. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered at best, but any relief from the afternoon heat will be welcome. A quick couple inches of rain is possible with any storms as motions will be slow.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 143 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The weekend will feature continued active weather for South Central Texas, with subtropical ridging sliding northward out of the western CONUS and into the Northern Plains states. As this ridge migrates north and eastward, it'll open the door for easterly low to mid- level flow over Texas and the southeastern US. With higher PWATs and continued southeasterly flow at the surface, daily rain and storm chances will occur Saturday through Wednesday, with Monday and Tuesday looking like the wettest days of the next week. An increasing concern for flooding rains develops on those two days as more concentrated coverage of storms and slow movement will prompt flooding concerns. Initially, any rainfall should soak into area soils as things have been dry for several weeks since our last widespread rains the 3rd week of June. However, runoff would probably follow soon after the first 1-2" of rainfall within any particular storm. By midweek, the NASA Dust AOT indicates a rather impressive plume of dust may work into South Central Texas on Wednesday, limiting rain chances Thursday and beyond. The GFS and ECMWF start to differ on their handling of the subtropical ridge over the Northern Plains and how it evolves by the middle of next week. This results in low confidence heading through the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through Friday night. Breezy southerly winds with gusts ranging from 20 to 25 knots are anticipated for the rest of this afternoon through late evening. Wind flow relaxes overnight through Friday morning and pick up again late Friday morning into the afternoon period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 95 77 95 / 0 10 10 40 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 94 77 94 / 0 20 10 40 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 94 75 94 / 0 30 30 50 Burnet Muni Airport 73 93 74 93 / 0 10 10 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 0 0 20 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 95 76 94 / 0 10 10 30 Hondo Muni Airport 74 91 75 91 / 0 30 40 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 94 76 94 / 0 30 20 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 77 95 / 0 30 10 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50 Stinson Muni Airport 76 92 76 92 / 0 40 30 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.