textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.

- Rain chances return to most areas late Tuesday into Wednesday, with the higher rainfall amounts over the coastal plains.

- Temperatures moderate back to near or above normal Thursday into Friday. We will monitor model trends for the possibility of much cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1259 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A widespread freeze was observed across all of south central Texas this morning with lows mainly in the teens and twenties. The coldest reading observed was 12 degrees in Edwards County, with plenty of teens also noted on the LCRA network across the Hill Country.

Dry air remains in place today as winds return to a more southwesterly direction. With plenty of sunshine, we still expect daytime highs to peak in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds will ease for most areas tonight, but wind speeds won't be as weak as what we saw this morning. With decent radiational cooling, most areas can expect another freeze tonight into Monday morning. Overnight lows will range from the mid 20s to near 35 degrees. Areas that keep a southerly wind overnight will see lows closer to 35 degrees and this looks to occur over the higher terrain of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country in addition to the urban areas of Austin and San Antonio. In areas where the winds diminish, valleys and low-lying areas, lows will be in the 20s to near 30 degrees.

Southerly winds in advance of a cold front will increase on Monday and this will boost daytime highs into the lower 60s to near 70 degrees. The cold front looks to enter the northern portions of the Hill Country around sunset, the drop southward through the remainder of the region Monday night. As the front drops southward, we expect to see an increase in cloud cover as warm air advection above the shallow, cool air near the surface increases. No precipitation is expected Monday night, but look for overnight lows to be warmer (mid 30s to mid 40s) due to the cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1259 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The warm air advection pattern persists into Tuesday and with plenty of clouds and surface high pressure in place, we will drop forecast highs below the NBM and keep most areas in the 50s to near 60 degrees. We do expect to see some low rain chances near the Rio Grande plains mainly during the daytime hours. Rain chances are then expected to gradually spread eastward and increase from the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. We've seen some back and forth among the models regarding precipitation amounts. At this time, would still favor the higher amounts to occur east of the I-35 corridor into the coastal plains. Rain chances largely move east of the region by early Thursday morning, with total rainfall amounts of a few hundredths or less over the Hill Country, around 0.10" along I-35 to the 0.50-0.75" range in the coastal plains.

The latest models have backed off a bit on another surge of cooler air on Thursday, so we will keep temperature trends fairly flat between Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures do nudge upward to above normal on Friday as southerly flow brings a more notable increase in warmth and low-level moisture to the region. The forecast for the upcoming weekend remains uncertain with the operational GFS and ECMWF showing a much stronger front moving in as early as Saturday. We are noting the stout cooling trends among the AI versions of the ECMWF and GFS as well. We will keep temperatures above normal on Saturday, but have trended colder beginning Sunday. We do have some low rain chances in the forecast from the Hill Country eastward, but there is plenty of uncertainty in the details at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 459 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR flight conditions continue during the period. Light afternoon southwesterly breezes across most locations subside after sunset with conditions becoming variable and to near calm levels. The winds along the Rio Grande, including KDRT, are the exception where winds are more east-southeast and south-southeasterly in direction. Monday afternoon will see winds slightly pick up where winds turn mostly east-southeasterly in direction. A weak front arrives not long after sunset Monday evening, which will turn the winds more east-northeasterly in direction. Skies remain mostly to completely clear through the day on Monday before the arrival of some mid-level clouds ahead of and in association with the weak front after sunset Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Southwest winds will be occasionally gusty this afternoon across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau region. With gusty winds, plenty of dry air and moderate to high fire danger, we opted to issue a Rangeland Fire Danger statement until 6 PM for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Southeasterly winds return to most areas on Monday and this will help humidity values trend upward. Another cold front moves in Monday night into Tuesday leading to a return of northeasterly winds. We do expect to see some rain chances for most areas late Tuesday into Wednesday, with wetting rains still favored mainly east of the I-35 corridor. Dry weather and a slow warming trend are currently anticipated for Thursday into Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 34 65 40 58 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 28 65 40 58 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 32 65 41 57 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 30 61 36 53 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 32 67 45 55 / 0 0 0 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 30 63 38 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 28 66 43 58 / 0 0 0 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 30 67 40 59 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 33 67 41 61 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 32 65 44 57 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 32 67 45 58 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.