textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Light to moderate showers continue with heavier pockets within thunderstorms mainly along and southeast of I-35 for the rest of today into this evening. Some storms could produce marginally severe hail.

- Patchy to areas of fog expected tonight into Wednesday morning. Can't rule out areas of dense fog over some locations late tonight.

- Mid to late week will consist of milder afternoons but cooler mornings behind passage of a dry front late Wednesday afternoon/evening. - Medium (30-60%) rain chances makes a return for Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The upper level system responsible for a wet weekend into early this week is located over northern Texas as of early this afternoon. It continues to pull elevated moisture from northern Mexico into the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains. The upper level system opens and moves to the southeast into east Texas as the afternoon and night progresses. At the surface, most observation sites are reporting light variable winds as of 12PM CST. However, above the surface, winds are from the southeast and south based on the 12Z soundings of DRT and CRP and forecast model soundings of 18Z. Also, pwats are ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches according to the 16Z Mesoscale Analysis page. All of this to say that light to moderate shower activity with some heavier downpours (storms) are forecast to continue for the rest of today mainly along and southeast of Interstate 35 including the Coastal Plains. With plenty moisutre in place and cloud coverage, today's lows are looking to range from mid to upper 60s over most areas and some locations over the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains may get into the low 70s.

Later this evening, the last round of showers and storms is projected to affect the Coastal Plains as the upper level open wave moves across east Texas and a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft pushes over that area. It looks like the passage of this wave opens the possibility for strong storms to develop across the Coastal Plains and SPC Day1 now highlight this area with a level 1 of 5, for the potential of strong storms capable of producing marginally severe hail. In addition, new rainfall amounts for the tonight into Wednesday morning period are forecast between quarter to half inch with isolated spots getting up to an inch especially over southern DeWitt and Lavaca counties.

While the Coastal Plains area deals with rain, most of the rest of South Central Texas is set for patchy to areas of fog especially the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. Latest models are suggesting areas of dense fog developing along the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Hill Country. So, we will monitor closely the observations and issue a Dense Fog advisory if needed. Otherwise, overnight lows range from the low to upper 50s and a few low 60s across the Coastal Plains.

The upper level open wave exits Texas on Wednesday morning and this marks the end of rain chances over the local area. Cloud cover will still be in place for the morning, however, clouds break for the afternoon into the evening ahead of a dry cold front and during the passage of the boundary. Wednesday's highs looking to range from the low to upper 70s areawide.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The dry cold front continues to push across the local area on Wednesday evening into the overnight period. Light northerly winds will be in place through the period with some gusts of 15 to 20 mph over the northern Hill Country and areas along and east of Highway 77. With some light winds and clear skies on Wednesday night, can't rule out some patchy to areas of fog along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. Overnight lows in the upper 40s over some locations of the southern Edwards Plateau with the rest of the area in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday are looking excellent with highs in the 70s and sunny skies with cooler overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

A pattern chance is forecast for the upcoming weekend as an eastern Pacific short wave enters northern Mexico and then moves across South Central Texas. Just like this past weekend, things start off the Rio Grande and then spreading eastward with time. There is a 30 to 60 percent rain chances through the period with highs in the 60s and 70s. Rain chances come to an end from west to east on Sunday afternoon through the evening. However, rain chances come right back as another cold front pushes across the local area early next week. However, low confidence on this at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Some light showers will likely persist at SAT and SSF for the next several hours. As this activity moves northeast, suspect most of the showers will stay just east of AUS and will not mention in the forecast for this afternoon. Otherwise, cigs will lower through the evening hours for most sites, especially DRT, SAT and SSF. The worst conditions look to setup out west at DRT, where LIFR is forecast between 10-16Z. Fog should be thicker at DRT, mainly after 10Z. For SAT and SSF, we opted to drop conditions into IFR after 09Z. While AUS could see some low cigs towards sunrise Wednesday, we have only gone with a TEMPO group for upper end IFR 11-15Z at this time. Not much improvement is anticipated through late tomorrow morning, with conditions slowly improving after 16Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 57 77 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 56 78 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 56 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 56 75 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 74 57 75 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 55 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 55 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 55 77 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 58 79 56 78 / 20 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 57 76 58 75 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 59 76 59 76 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.