textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather continues through Thursday with light rain possible tonight.

- A strong arctic front is forecast for our area Friday, bringing dangerous cold temperatures, a prolonged freeze this weekend into early next week.

- Confidence continues to increase (low to medium) regarding the potential winter weather this weekend, including the possibility of impactful freezing rain and sleet. Stay tuned for updates.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Substantial cloudiness is being observed across the majority of the area as noted via satellite imagery. This is due in part to a weak cold front moving through the area that is helping to wring out some light rain showers mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Southern Edwards Plateau with both Del Rio and Hondo locations reporting a trace. The cloudiness has really helped to tamp down temperatures with many locations as of this hour still in the low to upper 50s. Expect this cloudy rainy/drizzle trend to continue this evening with an increase in moisture and areal coverage with amounts remaining generally under 1/4 of an inch. Lows tonight will remain elevated due to the previously mentioned cloudiness with many staying in the 50s. Wednesday should be warmer than today with areawide low 70s likely as clouds slowly decrease. Chances of rain remain after daybreak for mainly the Coastal Plains area with light rain and or drizzle a possibility. Lows Wednesday evening remain very warm with 50s likely for those east of I-35 corridor as clouds fill back in and 40s likely for those with clearer skies further north and west.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Above normal temps continue through Thursday as zonal flow aloft keeps temps elevated and warm. That all changes come Friday as a strong arctic front looks to impact TX while at the same time strong moisutre from a cutoff low located over the Baja Cali area intersects this colder air. The resultant combination could allow our area to see not only the coldest air of the season but also a somewhat wintry mess of a system across most of TX. By early Friday evening most models hint at this arctic front moving across our area starting from the north up into the Hill country and progressing southward across the I-35 Corridor and Coastal Plains. Temperatures will likely not warm too much as strong CAA on the backside of this front pushes in behind. Some areas in the Hill Country may see there highs earlier in the day before dropping after the frontal passage. As this occurs strong isentropic flow will override the shallow cool air thus bringing the potential for wintry weather across our area. Although its too early to get into specifics, the most likely scenario at this time continues to be freezing rain and sleet with snow less likely due to the anomalous large layer of warm moist air aloft above freezing mid levels that resides over sub freezing surface to lower levels (warm nose). We would need the sounding profile to cool substantially to see a mainly all snow event. At this point that seems far less likely. Regarding precip we look to start out initially as plain old rain before northern parts of our CWA transition to freezing rain and or sleet or a mix of the two as strong CAA continues to funnel in undercutting the rain as temps continue to fall. Global ensemble members continue to highlight and show this well with many suggesting the Hill Country and northern I- 35 corridor with the highest chances of freezing rain including the Austin metro area. Chances decrease somewhat the further south one travels through the CWA. Bottom line for precip is this, confidence continues to increase that most of the area will see some wintry precip with the areas most favored being north and east of the I-10 to U.S 90 corridor.

Now for the temperatures and wind chills, this part we have far higher confidence in. Global models continue to come in colder and as is typical for these arctic outbreaks we have adjusted Friday's highs lower as well with many remaining in the 50s. By daybreak Saturday morning many locations will see temperatures right around freezing if not lower especially those further north. Temps continue to fall as strong northerly winds funnel in this polar air with wind chills in the teens and even single digits already likely as we approach Saturday night. Overnight expect wind chills to get dangerously cold with many seeing wind chills close to zero including the Austin metro area and Hill Country. Those further south may be slightly warmer but still very cold with wind chill values in the singles digits to lower teens including the San Antonio metro area.

As far as actual air temps we could see record lows possible for all climate sites for Sunday and even Monday with forecast highs for the northern half of the CWA right around freezing with warmer temps (around 40) across the Rio Grande Plains. Expect lows in the teens to low 20s Sunday night with similar air temps for highs and lows albeit a touch warmer for Monday (see Climate section below). At this point cold weather warnings or advisories will likely be needed across the entire CWA.

One other thing to note is that some areas may remain below freezing for a prolonged period of time (greater than 48 hrs). The most likely timeframe would be from 6 AM Saturday morning until 10 AM Monday morning. This becomes even more likely if areas to our north receive a fresh snow pack. This could allow even colder air to funnel into our region than currently forecasted. Bottom line for temperatures is this: it will be very cold and even likely into the dangerous cold category. Now is the time to prepare by protecting the four P's: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes. Please continue to stay tuned as this system is still about 4 days away and forecast details can and likely could change as we get closer and the finer details get ironed out.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Low clouds are spreading from the Rio Grande toward the east. MVFR ceilings at DRT are moving toward the San Antonio and Austin areas and should reach there by late afternoon. Ceilings will deteriorate over night eventually reaching LIFR in Austin and San Antonio and IFR at DRT. There will also be fog developing overnight reducing visibility. There is chance for rain showers in Austin and San Antonio overnight, but any rain will not affect flying category.

Winds in Austin and San Antonio will be less than 10 kts through the period. There will be a wind shift from the northeast to the southeast during the afternoon.

At DRT, winds will be from the west at less than 10 kts until a wind shift to the southeast this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 137 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026for this area.

Record Low Temperatures Jan 25 Jan 26 Austin Bergstrom 19 (2014) 24 (2011) Austin Camp Mabry 20 (1940/1926)20 (1904) San Antonio Intl 16 (1894) 20 (1897) Del Rio 22 (1963) 27 (1966/1920)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 52 70 52 72 / 30 20 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 51 70 51 74 / 40 30 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 51 70 51 72 / 30 20 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 49 68 48 69 / 30 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 48 73 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 50 70 50 71 / 30 20 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 51 70 48 74 / 20 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 51 70 50 74 / 40 20 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 54 70 55 74 / 30 50 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 53 70 53 73 / 30 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 53 70 53 75 / 30 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.