textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

The atmosphere along and west of Highway 281 was worked over pretty well, as was portions of the Hill Country east of 281. Along I-35 the storms ran out of steam quickly and left behind just a gentle moderate rain while not as much of a cool and gusty outflow. We in our period of forecasting are thus stuck on the fence between a resurgent MCS overhead gaining back steam as it moves east over SE TX or further weakening as new dynamic lift replaces the MCVs and generates a midday heavy rain event. While the current PoPs in the day 1 period reflect a very wet persistent rain threat, it's more likely that the lead MCV will move slow enough for the resurgent convection to get going over the Coastal Prairies before sunrise and drag a revitalized line of storms into East TX, leaving our midday hours with only some isolated, perhaps elevated storms. Thus our emphasis on todays heavy rain potential timing will shift back toward this evening, but the tight position of the slow moving low just north of the area should promote at least a threat of daytime heavy rain, especially near AUS and areas to the north. San Antonio, while getting a fair share of rain in regards to monthly averages, continues to get cheated on the drought relief rain that continues to catch our northern counties. This hopefully changes tonight, before the H5 low center begins to shift focus too far east.

The SPC slight risk area seems to fit the more progressive trend of the morning MCVs showing a stripe of higher risk running west to east along I-10 where damaging winds/heavy rain will probably be the main threats. The next round, whenever it begins will probably have more capability to add some pockets of large hail threats as new and discrete cells closer to the upper low dynamics and with a lower PWat environment. Highest PoPs around San Antonio are thus concentrated from 06Z to 18Z Thursday after the next round of slow- moving storms are fully congealed into a complex. Needless to say, even if you don't enjoy the thunder and heavy rain, the next couple days will give us a welcome break from the string of hot days we had over the past week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 239 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Model consensus depletes the area of the good dynamics as the upper low crosses North TX towards AR/LA Friday. There will be some residual instability in the NW/N flow aloft before upper ridging takes back over. The pattern is loose, so the final night of nocturnally favored convection could be Saturday or as late as Monday. The more likely PoPs that the NBM clings to is the Coastal Prairies diurnal convection. Depending on if we get the nocturnal rounds, the warming trend back to hot & humid daytime temps will be impacted as well. The current forecast reflect western counties returning to summer-like heat by Friday, and eastern counties returning by early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

A strong to severe line of storms are moving into the I-35 corridor with lighting already reaching SAT/SSF. Gusty winds to 30 knots are possible, and maybe a bit higher at SAT where the apex of the line is crossing. The line is tilting to pivot more northward, so the storm strength may need to be revised as stronger at AUS in later updates. After 08Z around SAT/SSF and after 11Z at AUS, a period of limited convection is expected to take over for much of the late morning. Some MVFR cigs are included for I-35 during this period. By midday AUS looks most likely to destabilize again as parts of the Coastal Prairies remain untapped from the morning convection. A conservative Prob30 is included only at AUS, but this may need to be more pessimistic should the models remain aggressive beneath the broader upper disturbance overhead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 71 85 74 / 70 90 90 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 71 85 75 / 70 90 90 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 72 86 74 / 70 90 90 20 Burnet Muni Airport 82 69 83 73 / 70 90 70 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 74 95 77 / 40 20 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 70 83 73 / 70 90 80 20 Hondo Muni Airport 88 71 89 73 / 40 100 100 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 71 86 74 / 70 90 80 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 73 83 75 / 70 80 90 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 73 88 75 / 60 90 100 20 Stinson Muni Airport 91 74 90 76 / 50 90 90 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.