textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer through the middle of the week.

- Low rain chances Tuesday for the Coastal Plains.

- Brief cool down Thursday then warmer for the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

There is a low amplitude upper ridge over TX this afternoon with weak troughing over the Rockies. The flow is turning anticyclonically from southwest, over West Texas, to northwest along the coast. Water vapor satellite imagery shows drying in the mid-levels. Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf has the low level from the southeast to southwest. This flow is bringing a warmer, moister airmass to South Central Texas. Temperatures are 15-20 degrees and dewpoints are 30-35 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. The upper level trough over the Rockies will move into the Plains tonight and Tuesday bringing cyclonic flow to TX. At the surface a cold front will drop through North TX tonight, but our CWA will remain in southerly flow. Low temperatures will be much warmer than today mainly in the 50s. There is a low chance (10%) of streamer showers over the Coastal Plains, but we will not include any mention in the forecast since the probability is so low. There will be patchy fog across this area overnight until mid- morning Tuesday. Some fog could be dense, but there is too much uncertainty to issue a Dense Fog Advisory. The cold front will move through our CWA during the day Tuesday and may generate some showers over the extreme eastern part of the area. POPs are only around 20%. Despite the frontal passage, high temperatures will be warm from the middle 60s to middle 70s. Behind the front winds will turn to the north and bring cooler air. Lows Wednesday will be 10-15 degrees cooler than Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Cooler air will continue to filter in Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday morning will be about normal for early February. Friday the low level flow will shift back to the southerly part of the compass and warm air will return. Temperatures over the weekend will climb above normal with highs mostly in the 70s across South-Central Texas. Sunday night an upper level trough will move across NM and then into TX Monday. This will bring our next chance for rain. At this time, the blended model solution is only 20% chances for showers, but some of the individual members suggest chances could be higher. We will see which side adjusts as we get closer in time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR conditions are forecast to begin along the I-35 terminals between 03Z to 06Z. Abundant moisture is forecast to push overnight into Tuesday morning across South Central Texas. Some models have patchy fog and others bring reduced visibility to 1 mile and even lower than 1 mile (IFR/LIFR). However, a good amount of model solutions preferred areas across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande including KDRT. There is a time period from 09Z to 16Z that cigs could lower to IFR for the I-35 airports. A southerly flow is forecast to prevail across the local area this evening through late Tuesday morning. A cold front is pushing from the northwest to the southeast over the local area late Tuesday morning through the afternoon. Northwest to north winds and gusts of 20 to 25 knots are possible in the wake of the frontal boundary. VFR conditions return across all sites middle of the afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 57 70 42 64 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 57 72 42 65 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 55 70 43 65 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 54 66 39 62 / 0 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 48 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 56 70 40 63 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 52 72 44 69 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 72 43 66 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 58 73 44 64 / 10 30 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 57 70 46 67 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 57 73 48 68 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.