textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A powerful front arriving Sunday afternoon/evening will bring strong winds, critical fire weather conditions, and much colder temperatures across much of South-Central Texas.

- Critical fire weather conditions linger into Monday as winds gradually weaken during the day.

- Light freezes are possible over the Hill Country Monday morning and over the Hill Country and adjacent low lying areas near the escarpment Tuesday morning.

- A rain free forecast remains through next week with a warming trend from midweek through the weekend

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The low-level southerly flow starts to intensify overnight in the response to a strengthening low pressure system at the surface in the Central CONUS. This will keep moderate to occasionally breezy winds for the Hill Country and into portions of the I-35 corridor from San Antonio northward overnight. The lightest winds tonight will likely be found to the south and west into the Rio Grande Plains. The southerly flow helps to funnel more Gulf moisture into the region, resulting in a warmer and more humid night with the overnight lows primarily in the low to mid 60s. Expect for the return of a low stratus deck, which will gradually spread to the west through about daybreak.

A dryline along the Rio Grande will then mix eastward through the morning and into this afternoon. This will help to erode the low clouds quickly and more efficiency than normal. The winds behind the dryline will turn more westerly and helps to usher in some drier West Texas air across our western areas. This is where today's hottest temperatures will trend this afternoon. A couple of Rio Grande locations may near 100F. Father east, a mix of pre-frontal compressional heating with the downslope flow along the Balcones Escarpment may also locally boost temperatures along the I-35 corridor, potentially getting highs closer to 95F. Daily record highs is expected to be challenged at all four climate sites as a result. It's during this period Sunday afternoon that critical fire weather conditions become a concern, especially over the southern Edwards Plateau Hill Country where the overlap of gustier pre- frontal winds and low humidity is most evident.

This near record warmth will then be met by a powerful cold front, resulting in quite the impressive temperature whiplash from this afternoon and into tomorrow morning. The front enters the Hill Country sometime early to mid-afternoon and plows across the remainder of South-Central TExas by around sunset. The winds will increase quickly out of the north with the front's arrival, with widespread sustained winds of 20-30 mph and gusts of 40-50 mph. Beyond sunset, the latest HREF guidance indicates an even greater enhancement of the winds across the higher terrain, where winds could become sustained to 35 mph with gusts to around 55 mph. No changes to the Wind Advisory on this package as it will remain in effect between 3 PM and 5 AM Monday when the strongest winds are expected to occur. Secure loose outdoor objects before the front arrives. The front is expected to remain a dry passage across our region but a narrow, fast-moving band of showers with perhaps a rumble of thunder or two may develop along the leading edge of the front just to the east-northeast of our region.

The strong post-frontal northerly winds remain strong through the majority of the night but do start to ease off slightly entering Monday morning. The strong northerly winds advect much colder air across the region as soon as the front's passage and lead to the temperatures falling into the 30s and low 40s by sunrise. Some locations will see wind chills drop into the 20s. As the previous discussion had noted, this represents a roughly 50-degree plunge within about a 15 hour period. This cold air advection is even strong enough to where a couple sites across the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau could experience a light freeze during Monday morning. Despite the arriving cold air, these strong winds combined with poor moisture recovery will prolong concerns for critical fire weather conditions through Sunday night.

An unseasonably cool day is in store for Monday with highs in the 50s and low to mid 60s. An increase in mid to high level clouds should be expected as well with upper level energy associated with the base of the upper level trough. Lingering breezy north winds along with dry air will result in a continued threat for critical fire weather conditions, especially across the eastern and southern half of South-Central Texas. These winds should settle by Monday night as surface high pressure settles over the state.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Monday night into Tuesday morning will be another chilly night as many locations could see lower temperatures than Monday morning as light winds and the eventual clearing of high clouds will lend to some radiational cooling. Light freezes will be possible in rural low-lying locations across the Coastal Plains, I-35 corridor and Hill Country. The low-level flow then becomes southerly during the day on Tuesday and this will mark the start to the warm-up for the remainder of the week.

Strong upper level ridging develops across the Desert Southwest by midweek and this ridge slowly expands eastward with time into the weekend. Given the light to moderate southerly low-level flow and the slowly rising height levels, expect a warming trend through the end of the forecast period. Highs by Friday and Saturday could again threaten some daily record highs. The forecast remains rain free from midweek into the weekend with partly to mostly clear skies.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

MVFR cigs are holding steady in a sturdy south/SE breeze early this morning. The inland leading edge looks on track to reach DRT for an hour or two before a dryline surges east. The dry-line should begin to impact the MVFR cigs along I-35 by 17Z with VFR skies for all areas afterwards. Next, the attention goes to the timing of the strong front. Much of the model data supports sustained 30 knot winds for many areas with gusts well over 40 knots possible. A gradual lowering of the winds should occur during the day Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A prolonged stretch of critical fire weather conditions occurs from today through Monday. A Red Flag Warning will begin at noon for all of South-Central Texas. From this morning into early afternoon, a dry line is forecast to mix east to the I-35 corridor. A combination of 10-20 percent relative humidity, 10-20 mph westerly winds, and unusually warm temperatures in the 90s in wake of the dry line will lead to an initial period of critical fire weather, especially over the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. The dry line then becomes overtaken by a powerful cold front from mid-afternoon into about sunset across the region. Very strong north winds will arrive immediately and in the wake of this front with sustained wind speeds climbing into the 20 to 35 mph range and gusts as high as 45 to 55 mph. Expect for these strong winds to persist through much of the overnight. Low RH values will spread across the remainder of the region. Despite rapidly falling temperatures in wake of the front, moisture recovery will be poor with the highest humidity only in the 30 to 35 percent range Sunday night.

Expect minimum humidity to fall back into the 10 to 20 percent range Monday afternoon. Winds will remain breezy through Monday afternoon, especially across the Coastal Plains, but not nearly as strong as the speeds overnight. The primary area of concern for critical fire weather Monday afternoon includes areas, primarily along and east of I-35 into the Coastal Plains, though daytime temperatures will be much lower and in the 50s. Wind speeds weaken to light levels across all areas into Monday night. Dry conditions persist through midweek with enough wind at times for pockets of some elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the region. Overnight moisture recovery improves later in the week with the return and increase of southerly flow, but a warming trend and dry air will continue to support daytime RH values below 35 percent.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Record High Temperatures

Mar 15(Sun) Austin Bergstrom 87 (1977) Austin Camp Mabry 92 (2016) San Antonio Intl 91 (1908) Del Rio 98 (1908)

Record Low Temperatures Mar 16(Mon) March 17(Tue) Austin Bergstrom 32 (1962,1947) 30 (2005) Austin Camp Mabry 30 (1924) 30 (1913) San Antonio Intl 27 (1947) 32 (1947) Del Rio 28 (1913) 33 (1969)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 39 57 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 56 31 67 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 41 59 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 35 53 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 44 61 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 37 55 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 40 61 34 68 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 40 59 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 41 57 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 41 58 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 43 60 38 68 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 AM CDT Monday for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.