textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Dry and seasonable conditions this week with cool mornings and mild afternoons.

- Another weak cold front arrives Thursday with low rain chances for the Coastal Plains.

- Potential for cooler weather this weekend with low chances for rain.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A few spots in the Austin area, Hill Country, Coastal Plains, and in the southern Edwards Plateau picked up 1 to 2 inches of rain from the showers and storms accompanying this morning's cold front, though most of the area received amounts in the 0.1 to 0.5 inch range. The front has now pushed east with drier air now spreading across the region. We don't anticipate much post- frontal wind due to low mixing heights and rather low momentum in the lowest 3 km, so the area will be entreated to only a light to moderate and dry northwest breeze this afternoon and evening.

With the drier continental air in place, temperatures tonight will be cooler than previous days with lows in the 50s across the lower plains and in the 40s for the higher elevations in the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. Wednesday will be a pleasant and virtually cloudless day with highs in the 70s, followed by another cool night in the upper 40s to mid 50s with good radiational cooling.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A trough and accompanying front is forecast to move across South- Central Texas on Thursday. The moisture supply for this front will be limited since only two days will have passed since the previous front, so low rain chances (20-40%) are limited to the Coastal Plains. The passage of that front will clear the air again for a dry and seasonable Friday.

Over the weekend, a southern branch polar trough is set to amplify across the Central Plains and the Midwest. This sets up a favorable pattern for northerly flow aloft, which should reinforce cool air over Texas. It does not look like this will bring a sharp change in temperatures, but highs over the weekend look to gradually decline into the 60s and low 70s with overnight lows in the 40s becoming more widespread. There is a 20 percent chance of rain this weekend for areas south of I-10 as this oozing of cool air interacts with moisture delivered by a subtropical trough over Mexico. If the subtropical trough is further away, as depicted in the GFS/GEFS and their ML counterparts, then this rain will tend to be lighter. If the trough is closer, as depicted in the ECMWF/EPS and their ML counterparts, then there may be more meaningful amounts above 1". There is ample uncertainty regarding the timing of that trough, so rain chances this weekend may vary significantly in subsequent forecasts until the trough becomes better defined. In any case, the weekend should be slightly cooler than average for mid-November. Conditions early next week will also depend on whether the trough clears out of our area, but the overall wavy upper-air pattern over the western US should set up additional opportunities for cooler and drier air to cycle into the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current forecast period. Other than some high clouds, skies should remain clear through tomorrow afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 53 74 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 50 75 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 51 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 50 71 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 53 74 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 49 72 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 50 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 50 75 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 51 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 53 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 54 75 54 80 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.