textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Periodic rain chances return to western counties this evening,then gradually increase west-to-east across the area this week with peak rain chances and locally heavy amounts possible Thursday into Friday.

- Mild to warm conditions continue through the week

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A blocking ridge that's been over TX is being nudged east today to hopefully open up more Gulf moisture for some much needed October rain. Over the past few days, the presence of a large surface ridge covering the SE CONUS has been sending ripples of drier air across the northern Gulf into Central and East TX. Unfortunately, this is continuing today, and our convection potential will be confined to our western counties where the low level winds are more southerly than easterly. Rounding about the base of the surface ridge, a pocket of locally higher PWat values will be moving onshore into the Coastal Bend, but is expected to mainly target the Rio Grande Plains while less moist air continues to work west to the I-35 Corridor from SE TX. This is unfortunate because a robust shortwave is forecast to arrive into the Edwards Plateau late this afternoon into tonight. So the same areas that got the lion's share of rain in the most recent rain pattern will again receive the benefits of better moisture availability and therefore rain chances. This short term rain chance is not expected to bring significant rain totals, as the PWat values shown in the latest GFS to be around 1.5 inches. Late tonight there could be enough Gulf moisture arrival to generate some overnight streamer showers in our central counties, and there are some indications in the new 00Z runs of additional weak shortwave activity to trail the ejecting shortwave into S TX as the stronger portion of the ejecting system pulls north into the Central Plains.

So putting it all together, we're expecting to see a 40-55% rain chance spreading into Val Verde County later today, with mostly 15- 30% PoPs tonight and a boost of rain chances covering a few more areas from San Antonio metro to the Rio Grande Plains and lower Coastal Plains during the day Tuesday. Best rainfall amounts may high over half an inch in spots, but most amounts should fall shy of 1/10 inch. As we saw for Sunday, all the extra cloud attention we are getting is giving us some relief from the heat and this is expected to continue into the extended forecast.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The tilted low level ridging pattern that holds onto the upper TX coast continues to funnel intermittent moist and dry pockets of low level air into South Central TX and this has us not feeling too confident on the rain chances for Wednesday. With out SE counties projected to see 1.5-1.7 inch PWat values, it would seem that low level convection would be somewhat isolated. However, that SW flow overhead will be capable of ejecting some weak vorticity out of the higher terrain as the SW shear over the eastern Pacific should have a better connection to weakening Tropical Storm Vance. The current model cycle indicates most runs holding back any rain chance increases for Wednesday, but there has been a large sway towards a wetter environment developing Wednesday night into Thursday morning over western counties and spreading slowly northeast across much of the area through late Friday. The 00Z solutions looked at thus far don't seem to show good agreement on what the surface conditions will look like during this period, and the GFS could be an outlier in generating a shortwave strong enough to bring its own frontal system into TX Friday. The model blends are therefore favored, and the more likely scenario is continued low level dry air entrainment into eastern counties to limit the rainfall potential to mainly along and west of I-35 when the shortwave pushes through. Any changes to Vance could also disrupt this weather trend, so the feeling here is that our PoPs for this Thursday into Friday should be treated with a degree of skepticism. Should Vance's trend impact our area in a more "positive" way, it will be nice to have later shifts inherit the current messaging that a heavy rain event of 1-2 inch rains and potentially higher is well within the realm of possibility for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures remain seasonably mild warm and should be fairly steady through mid week. Assuming the enhanced rain chances are going to pan out for Thursday and Friday, some relatively lower high temperatures are already getting baked into the guidance blends for that period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to remain across the I-35 corridor terminals through at least this evening. For KDRT, MVFR conditions return around 11z this morning and lift by around 18z. A light and variable wind flow stays overnight into Monday morning. A southeast flow of 10 knots or less is forecast to persist across the local area this afternoon and part of the evening. A dry weather pattern continues for most areas with the exception of portions of the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau this afternoon and evening. KDRT could see isolated to scattered shower activity through the period. Increased moisture spreading across the local area this evening could result in MVFR cigs late tonight into the overnight hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 63 82 63 / 0 0 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 61 83 62 / 0 0 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 62 82 62 / 0 0 40 10 Burnet Muni Airport 79 61 79 62 / 0 0 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 64 83 65 / 30 20 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 61 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 83 63 82 63 / 0 10 50 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 62 83 62 / 0 0 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 63 83 63 / 0 0 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 64 81 64 / 0 10 40 10 Stinson Muni Airport 84 66 82 65 / 0 10 40 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.