textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- One last day of above average temperatures today, then below average Easter Sunday through Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening near the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. Some storms could be strong.

- Widespread rain chances this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A mid to upper level trough stretches from a low over the northern Rockies to northwestern Mexico. Low level flow across our CWA is generally from the southeast. The airmass remains warm and moist with temperatures in 70s to near 80 and dewpoints in the 60s. A dryline will extend from a low over the Panhandle to the Big Bend region. This boundary will be the focus for convective development this afternoon and evening. There is a low chance that storms move into our northwestern counties from this feature. CAPE in the vicinity of the dryline will reach 1500 j/kg and some storms could be strong to severe. Better ingredients for severe storms will be farther north and SPC has only included our southern Edwards Plateau region in the Level 1 risk. Friday night a Pacific cold front will move through north TX. This front will move through our CWA early Saturday. This boundary will bring better chances for showers and thunderstorms to more of our CWA. Models show less instability ahead of this front, and we don't expect any strong storms with the front. The front should get through the area early enough to have cooler air keep highs down to near normal Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A series of upper level impulses will move through the pattern over TX and bring chances for additional showers and thunderstorms Saturday night through early Monday. Although models are showing an extended period of convection, Saturday afternoon and evening is the time period that will most likely have activity. There is a chance for some locally heavy rain with storms Saturday and Sunday with PW values forecast above 1.5". Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry as upper ridging builds over the area from the west. There will be another low chance for showers Thursday in the moist southeasterly flow.

Behind the front cooler air will spread across our CWA resulting in below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in 60s and lower 70s. Lows will range from the middle 40s to middle 50s each morning Monday through Wednesday. Wednesday highs will warm back to near normal across most of the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR cigs remain intact this morning, with VFR returning early this afternoon. Some late afternoon/early evening convection will be possible near the Rio Grande and based on recent hi-res models, we have added a PROB30 group to DRT between 22-02Z for TSRA. Otherwise, expect gusty south to southeast winds today. MVFR clouds will return to all TAF sites by late this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 69 76 55 / 10 50 100 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 68 78 53 / 10 40 100 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 68 78 54 / 10 40 90 40 Burnet Muni Airport 83 65 71 51 / 10 60 100 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 89 69 77 58 / 40 70 90 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 66 75 51 / 10 50 100 20 Hondo Muni Airport 89 68 77 54 / 10 50 90 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 68 79 54 / 10 40 90 40 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 70 80 56 / 10 20 90 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 88 70 78 56 / 10 40 90 40 Stinson Muni Airport 89 70 80 57 / 10 40 90 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.