textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms for most areas today and again Thursday.

- Locally heavy rainfall possibly taking shape late Thursday into early Friday across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Locally heavy rain concerns spread east across the remainder of the region on Friday.

- Rain chances decrease, but continue into the upcoming weekend as temperatures trend upward.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

A weak upper disturbance over southeast Texas along with outflow boundaries and daytime heating helped convection develop across portions of south central Texas yesterday evening. Some lingering convection mainly across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains region should slowly weaken through the early morning hours while moving westward. For today, the incoming hi-res models tend to favor rain chances from the coastal plains region back westward into portions of the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Lingering outflow boundary from Tuesday evening's convection along with daytime heating and a weak shortwave trough moving out of the Big Bend region should help in the development of showers and thunderstorms. We will also keep a chance for afternoon convection across the remainder of the region given today should be a similar setup as Tuesday. Gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning will be the main concerns with the stronger storms. The NBM suggests highs on Wednesday will drop a few degrees. While we do expect to see some cooling due to increased cloud cover and rain chances, we will bump highs up slightly over the NBM.

A subtle increase in southwest flow aloft with lingering moisture and heating should be enough to generate more diurnally driven convection across the region on Thursday. Moisture levels remain highest near the coast, so will tend to favor the better rain chances here. With continued weak flow through the column, will need to monitor the stronger storms for gusty winds, heavy rain and lightning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 106 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Late Thursday into early Friday we expect to see a little more organized shortwave activity move in from the southwest ahead of an upper low over northern Mexico. This will likely focus better rain chances out west across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau region. The latest NBM Pops are quite high, but may not be too far off for the Thursday night into early Friday morning period. Slow- moving storms and plenty of moisture will likely lead to some heavy rainfall concerns over the above mentioned areas late Thursday/early Friday. As the upper low over northern Mexico continues to lift northward, shortwave activity will help develop additional convection farther east into the remainder of the region on Friday.

For the weekend, southwest flow aloft continues, but with the main source for lift to our north, our rain chances will be on the decrease. We should also see a slow warming trend with temperatures returning closer to climatological normals for early June. Upper level ridging is then expected to build across northern Mexico and Texas leading to mostly dry conditions along with near normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

MVFR and VFR conditions are likely to battle for the next few hours before VFR cigs persist. Light east to southeast winds are forecast through the period. New guidance shows less probability for thunderstorm activity across KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF, therefore, removed the PROB30 for each site due to low confidence. If any storm develops closely the airports, likely be mid to late afternoon and evening. MVFR cigs return to the local area terminals overnight into Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 90 72 87 73 / 30 20 30 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 72 87 73 / 30 20 40 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 70 86 71 / 30 40 40 30 Burnet Muni Airport 87 70 84 71 / 20 20 30 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 92 73 89 72 / 40 40 20 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 89 71 86 72 / 20 20 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 88 71 86 72 / 40 30 30 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 71 87 72 / 30 30 40 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 72 86 72 / 40 20 50 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 72 86 73 / 40 30 30 30 Stinson Muni Airport 89 72 87 73 / 40 30 30 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.