textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the holiday weekend.

- Locally heavy rain in multiple rounds of storms through Monday. Localized flash flooding is possible.

- Active and unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week. Multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

For the short term we are seeing a complex of showers and thunderstorms moving across the southern half of area and into the Coastal Plains as a mid level low continues to push along to the east. Due to this earlier than anticipated activity most of this area will struggle to recover so we are not expecting much in the way of additional activity for the rest of this morning into this afternoon for these areas. Our attention will turn to just north of this area along the I-35 corridor and areas east. Recent Hi-res models indicate this complex pushing off to the east before activity tries to backbuild and form around the low with storms moving westward back into the area from the east. We will have to monitor this closely as slow storm motions along with relatively high PWATs of 1.4 to 1.8in as of 15Z remain across this corridor. Any storms that form will be capable of producing torrential rainfall as we have seen across the area earlier this morning. Hence the Flood Watch continues with the possibility of seeing additional pockets of 2 to 3 inches with any of the heavier storms.

Depending on how things evolve tonight could be another active evening as we could have some convection forming out in West TX and swinging southeastward into the Southern Edwards Plateau. Went ahead and Raised pops to around 20-30% to account for this. However as we have seen over the last few days almost everything has continually overperformed so it wouldn't be surprising if we see higher coverage of storms this evening then what models currently show. In addition there remains a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather with large hail and damaging wins the main threat through this evening.

Regarding Sunday almost all model guidance shows the Low staying further to the east and meandering along the TX coastline. This in turn really puts a damper on our rain and storm chances as most of the activity should be centered on where this low sets up which would be well east of our area. However, we could still see isolated showers and storms around which would mainly be diurnally driven. There's still far too much moisture hanging around the area for us to go completely dry so kept pops around 20% for areas along and east of the I-35 Corridor with activity waning after sunset.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Our very unsettled weather pattern remains in place into the middle of next week as the low will likely be meandering to our east over the TX coast. Eventually a shortwave trough looks to move across our area Tuesday into wednesday eventually pushing the spinning low off to the north. Right now Monday is looking like a drier day with only low chance POPs along and east of the I-35 Corridor into the coastal Plains. Things get active again with this next significant shortwave moving across Texas Tuesday into Wednesday as we likely will see another round of showers and thunderstorms. Once again PWATs will be 1.5" to perhaps 2.0+" meaning locally heavy rain will be possible yet again. Because the area is quite saturated it wont take much for any additional rainfall to exacerbate soil conditions thus increasing the potential for excessive run off which can lead to flash flooding or river flooding. Please continue to monitor the forecast and always have a way to receive warning information.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area terminals through Sunday. The earlier storm activity that went over San Antonio is now over the Coastal Plains. For the rest of this afternoon into the evening, there is a potential for some storms to develop across the Rio Grande Plains and getting closer to KDRT around 02Z Sunday. For the Hill Country, a few storms could form around 01Z and to the east of KAUS. Therefore, keeping this out of the tafs, however, mentioning here for awareness in case this scenario changes later on. Southeast winds are likely to prevail for the rest of the afternoon and part of this evening and then becoming light and variable overnight into Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 85 69 87 / 50 20 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 85 69 87 / 50 20 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 68 85 67 87 / 40 20 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 67 83 66 84 / 50 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 91 70 91 / 30 0 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 68 83 68 85 / 50 20 20 20 Hondo Muni Airport 66 85 66 86 / 20 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 68 85 68 87 / 50 20 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 83 68 85 / 50 20 20 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 69 86 69 88 / 30 20 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 69 85 69 87 / 30 20 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ171>173-186>194- 204>209-219>225.