textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Seasonably hot temperatures continue into mid-week.

- Low to medium rain/storm chances this afternoon/evening from the Southern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 Corridor.

- Additional rain/storm chances possible next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A mid to upper level ridge extends from northwestern Mexico to the northern Great Plains producing weak flow over Texas. A dissipating frontal boundary over North Texas has generated thunderstorms that have moved down through Central Texas. What's left of these storms are moving through our northern area. While they have been weakening over the past few hours, they may still produce some strong, gusty winds. They should dissipate within the next couple of hours. There will be another round of storms around the dissipating front in Central Texas this afternoon. Models are showing chances for some storms to move into our northern counties starting during the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Storms should be confined to the area from the Southern Edwards Plateau to the northern I-35 Corridor. Storms could produce strong wind gusts, but should be below severe strength. Tonight into Tuesday the front will dissipate, and the upper ridge will strengthen. This will bring an end to any convection for the rest of the short term. Temperatures will continue to be near normal.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The upper ridge will strengthen further Wednesday and Thursday. Hot and dry weather will be the forecast each day. Temperatures will stay fairly steady. Friday another upper trough will ride over the ridge into the middle of the country and this will weaken the ridge over Texas. This weakening of the ridge will coincide with a surge of moisture from the Gulf. The result will be chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. The Sunday morning model run starting to show this, and the current run is consistent. Although it's very early to talk about specific rain amounts, model PW forecast would suggest a chance for locally heavy rain. We'll see how things trend through the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The gusty winds and rain showers across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Western Hill Country with the outflow boundary earlier have now mostly dissipated. Low clouds have again developed across the central portions of the region with MVFR ceilings at KSAT and KSSF along with any nearby surrounding locations. The MVFR ceilings may briefly reached KAUS but VFR conditions with sct low clouds generally prevail there. KDRT should also remain VFR, however, there may be greater leftover high level clouds there behind the earlier outflow boundary. Expect all sites to return to VFR conditions by late morning and this will continue at least into the overnight. There is a chance for spotty afternoon or evening shower or storm activity but best chances occur across the Southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, thus keeping the confidence too low to insert any mention of -SHRA or -TSRA within the TAF package for now. The winds should remain generally light outside of any outflow/convective influences, with peak speeds occurring at around 10 kts with locally higher gusts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 97 77 96 77 / 20 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 96 77 96 77 / 20 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 96 76 96 76 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 94 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 78 100 79 / 20 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 95 75 95 75 / 10 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 94 76 94 76 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 95 76 95 76 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.