textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A very humid and unsettled weather pattern continues through the middle of next week with daily rain and thunderstorm chances.

- Strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are possible this weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An active weather pattern is expected over the next week as nearly continuous southwesterly mid-level flow sets up over the southern and western CONUS. Ample moisture advection within WAA ahead of an upper-level low over the West Coast will result in a series of shortwave disturbances moving through the flow this weekend.

The latest GOES-19 imagery in the region depicts several areas of showers and storms with coverage expected to increase through the afternoon hours. Most of this activity is diurnally driven but daytime heating and weak deep layer shear. As a result, storms forming today will be similar to yesterday, prone to collapse, clashing with cold outflow to produce additional showers and storms. Rainfall rates could be heavy at times but how long storms linger over one area shouldn't be particularly long, so flooding risk is low today.

On Saturday, things get a bit more interesting, particularly out west over the Rio Grande Plains and Edwards Plateau. As the aforementioned trough moves inland over California Saturday afternoon, a strong shortwave will eject out over west Texas, allowing a dryline to sharpen. This boundary is likely to remain well west of the area on Saturday, but deep layer shear out ahead of it, along with ample instability will trigger strong to severe storms over west Texas that should make it into Val Verde County and portions of the Edwards Plateau late Saturday evening. Out ahead of this convection, most of South Central Texas will see similar coverage of showers and storms as Thursday and Friday with streamer activity bubbling up in the late morning/early afternoon and continue through the evening hours. Some locally heavy downpours are possible along with gusty winds but the primary severe threat is out west, where a Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk is in place for Saturday evening. Hail and wind are the primary concerns.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Any storms that can maintain some intensity will be ongoing early Sunday over the Edwards Plateau, but the main action looks to arrive late afternoon and evening as the dryline pushes further east Sunday afternoon. Increased southwesterly flow, instability, and shear will bring about a conditional threat of strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon/evening. It is ultimately dependent on how quickly things can destabilize again after any morning convection over the western half of the CWA Sunday morning. SPC has a day 3 Level 1 of 5 risk for the entire area Sunday, and a level 2 of 5 risk for portions of the Hill Country as well. In addition to the severe threat, WPC has a Level 2 of 4 risk over our region Sunday-Sunday night for heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of flash flooding. Storms should fire up late afternoon over the Rio Grande and slide east through the evening hours, with large hail, damaging wind, and locally heavy rainfall the primary hazards.

Southwesterly flow continues through the start of next week with at least one more lead shortwave on Monday before the main trough ejects out over the Plains on Tuesday. An active weather pattern will continue with daily rain and storm threats, with the possibility of severe storms Monday-Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Cloud bases will continue to lift through early afternoon, with VFR conditions in store through late evening. We still expect to see some scattered showers and storms move into the Interstate 35 corridor this afternoon and will hang on to the PROB30 groups for our I-35 TAF sites. Some timing of TSRA may need to be adjusted, but the 20-24Z time frame still appears most favorable. Some overnight showers can't be ruled out, but activity should remain isolated in nature and will not mention in the forecast at this time. Widespread MVFR cigs look to return around 06-08Z, with a good chance for IFR after 10Z. Similar to today, expect cigs to gradually rise back to VFR Saturday afternoon, with another chance for scattered convection during the late afternoon/early evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 66 82 69 81 / 20 50 50 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 82 68 80 / 20 50 40 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 82 68 80 / 30 50 40 60 Burnet Muni Airport 65 79 67 77 / 10 40 60 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 67 82 69 84 / 30 50 90 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 81 67 78 / 20 40 50 60 Hondo Muni Airport 66 81 67 79 / 20 50 50 70 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 82 68 80 / 30 50 40 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 67 82 69 81 / 20 50 20 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 82 69 79 / 30 50 50 60 Stinson Muni Airport 67 83 70 80 / 20 50 40 60

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.