textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Low to medium chances for isolated showers and storms continues for today, with significantly lower rain chances for Thursday.

- Unseasonable hot conditions continue with some reprieve in the humidity levels by next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Currently a weak stationary frontal boundary is located just north of our area stretching from just south of Lampasas westward to just north of Fort Stockton TX. We could see this front sag further southward through the day today much like we saw yesterday. Not much has changed with a mid level ridge remaining overtop of Central TX however it's still fairly weak so we could see another round of isolated showers and storms erupt near this boundary along with any activity that forms along the seabreeze. Main areas that could see some shower and storm activity would be the Hill Country into the I- 35 Corridor this afternoon into this evening much like what we saw with yesterdays activity. We shouldn't see much in the way of severe weather once again as shear remains very low. DCAPE values could get above 1000 J/kg which would continue to support strong gusty winds in any of the stronger storms that develop. By Thursday chances for showers and storms should be significantly lower as the ridge begins to suppress instability across the area.

Regarding temperatures we should see another unseasonably hot day for south central TX with mid to upper 90s common with perhaps a few triple digit readings which remains well above normal for this time of year. It will again remain very humid with PWATS currently in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range which is well above normal for this time of year. When adding in the humidity with the heat we will expect to see another day of heat indices around the 101 to 107 degree range which should keep us just shy of heat advisory criteria. Thursday we should see very similar highs with slightly less humidity as the ridge of high pressure continues to strengthen. Similarly heat indices should also be lower and more in the 100-105 degree range. Nights however will continue to remain very warm for this time of year with most seeing temps staying in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Global models and ensemble guidance remain in excellent agreement that the mid level ridge continues to strengthen during the long term thus reducing our chances for rain and storms. It eventually pushes off to the east across the TX/LA border by the end of the week before meandering back west southwestward over the Texas Coast over the weekend. The result is most areas should remain dry with just very spotty isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Plains and again across the Rio Grande as they remain on the periphery of the ridge. As stated before, with the ridge being close by it should drop our humidity values by Friday as onshore flow from the Gulf will be reduced. While it will remain unseasonably hot across the area, heat indices will actually only be a degree or two warmer than the actual air temperature. This should bring us some reprieve from the oppressive heat and humidity we have experienced for most of this month. Unfortunately rain chances continue to look abysmal for most of the area as long as the ridge remains parked nearby. Eventually models indicate this ridge being shunted down towards Mexico as a deep trough and associated front may look to impact the area by the middle of next week. Thus there is some hope in the long term as long range models are starting to indicate a pattern shift which favors our area for a more active weather pattern as we end September and head into the month of October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR conditions to prevail for the majority of the TAF cycle at all terminal. Hi-res models continue to hint at the possibility of an isolated shower impacting the I-35 terminals between 21z and 03z, but confidence on narrowing that window and identifying which terminal has the better chance is low. Expect amendments once showers develop an the impacted terminal are identified. Any shower chances end after 03z and winds become calm. There is a chance for KSSF to see MVFR ceilings towards daybreak tomorrow and have inserted a tempo group to cover this brief impact.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 76 99 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 99 75 98 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 97 74 97 / 10 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 95 71 94 / 10 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 97 73 96 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 98 73 98 / 10 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 99 73 98 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 10 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 96 76 96 / 10 0 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.