textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Low rain chances today for the coastal plains region into the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau.

- The forecast trends drier Friday through the weekend with very low rain chances confined to the coastal plains.

- Temperatures remain above normal through the forecast period, with concerns for maximum temperatures and peak heat index values near Heat Advisory levels this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Daytime heating along with a weak mid-level disturbance over the northwestern Gulf will be enough to generate another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms today. The coastal plains will be first to see the convection as some rain chances will be in the forecast beginning late this morning. The 10/00Z run of the HRRR shows lower coverage of convection over the coastal plains today compared to yesterday. There is some weak subsidence noted on the western edge of the above mentioned upper disturbance and this may contribute to a little lower coverage. However, will still keep rain chances around 30% for the coastal plains. Continued heating should help some activity develop farther inland toward the I-35 corridor, Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau region. Coverage should be lower and will keep rain chances closer to 20%. Some mid-level troughing remains over the northwestern Gulf on Friday, with weak, northwesterly flow aloft on the backside of this trough. We may need to monitor for the possibility of some late evening convection moving out of west central Texas towards the Hill Country. As of now, chances are low and will not mention in the forecast at this time. Little change in temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s and lows in the 70s. A few spots in the coastal plains may briefly see peak heat index values near 108 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

For the weekend into early next week, the models generally agree in showing mid and upper level high pressure moving from the desert southwest into the southern U.S. plains and eventually setting up over the southeastern U.S. There will be a mid-level weakness over the northwestern Gulf, but no significant weather is expected with this feature. We still expect to see an increase in the low-level thermal ridge, which will likely yield a degree or two upward trend in temperatures across the region. We will continue to monitor for the possibility of maximum temperatures and peak heat index values near Heat Advisory criteria for areas generally along and east of Interstate 35 for the upcoming weekend and possibly into Monday. Most areas will remain dry, but some isolated seabreeze convection remains possible near the coastal plains.

The area of mid and upper level high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will allow for a deeper south to southeasterly flow in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere to develop. No significant change in temperatures is anticipated at this time with above normal warmth expected to continue into the middle of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for the local area sites through the next 24 to 30 hours. Some low scattered clouds may develop overnight along the I-35 corridor and remain through the morning, but I do not think for these clouds to get to MVFR category. If they do, the time frame will be for less than 2 hours. Otherwise, a southerly wind flow of 5 to 10 knots to dominate through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 99 76 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 99 76 99 77 / 10 10 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 74 96 74 / 20 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 97 75 99 76 / 10 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 74 99 75 / 10 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 75 99 75 / 10 10 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 96 76 98 77 / 20 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 77 100 78 / 10 10 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.