textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 545 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Daily rain chances through at least Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible.

- Best chances for heavy rain Monday night through Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Upper air analysis this evening shows a weakness in the subtropical ridge over Texas. The low level flow continues to be from the southeast across South-Central Texas. The airmass over our CWA has been disrupted by Saturday's convection. It has mainly affected the temperatures, and unlike yesterday the effects may linger overnight with lows this morning a little cooler than yesterday. The airmass will recover today with continuing southeasterly flow. The upper ridge will continue to shift to the northern plains during the short term leaving weak flow over Texas. We don't see any upper impulses coming today and while we do expect additional convection coverage should be less than Saturday. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal today and Monday. The upper ridge will move across the northern plains and force a trough over Texas from the northeast for the first part of next week. This will bring better chances for convection starting Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 211 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Monday night we will see lower level moisture increase with PW values exceeding two inches over parts of the CWA. This will lead to locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding. These conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday. WPC has included most of the area in the Level 1 (Marginal) risk of excessive rainfall both Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. They have added a Level 2 (Slight) risk for the Southern Edwards Plateau Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the summertime pattern without any clear forcing mechanism, we can't say where there will be better chances for heavy rain at this time. We should get a better idea when the high resolution models take over. By late week the upper pattern will start to readjust, but still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will continue Thursday. The end of the week should be dry. With all of the cloudiness and rain high temperatures will be cooler with highs not reaching 90 over parts of the area Tuesday through Thursday and staying below normal through the end of the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

No significant changes in low clouds have been made to the forecast this morning with mainly MVFR cigs expected, with some TEMPO IFR along I-35 through roughly 14Z. We can't rule out some brief IFR at DRT, but confidence is not high enough to mention in the forecast at this time. Some light rain has moved north of DRT early this morning and another batch of light showers is noted farther south along the Rio Grande. While confidence for additional showers and storms today is higher at DRT, we will continue to mention PROB30 groups along I-35 as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 94 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 93 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 76 93 75 / 20 20 40 50 Burnet Muni Airport 92 75 90 73 / 20 20 50 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 76 95 76 / 50 50 50 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 94 76 91 73 / 20 20 50 70 Hondo Muni Airport 92 76 92 75 / 20 10 20 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 76 92 75 / 20 20 40 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 77 92 75 / 30 20 50 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 77 92 77 / 20 20 30 60 Stinson Muni Airport 92 77 92 77 / 20 10 30 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.