textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch in place across South-Central Texas from this evening through Tuesday afternoon with pockets of heavy rainfall and high hourly rainfall rates expected at times.

- Monitoring additional rain and any flooding concerns along coastal plains Wednesday into Thursday as leftover spin from the tropical disturbance in Mexico lifts northeastward along the Texas coast.

- Additional scattered rain and storm potential from Friday through Saturday with energy approaching from the Texas panhandle.

- Elevated heat indices today and late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Rich tropical moisture has moved into South-Central Texas with the influence from the tropical disturbance that has moved inland over Mexico. Precipitable water values are now around 2 inches for locations along the I-35 corridor and are expected to continue to increase into the 2.25 to 2.4 inch (at the 99+ percentile for this time of year) range later tonight through Monday. This afternoon should feature scattered rain showers and thunderstorms across the region with occasional heavier downpours producing around a quick half inch or more. Rain and thunderstorm coverage then increases tonight through Monday into Tuesday as a front sags southward into the region and acts as an additional catalyst for activity. This front slows and starts to stall out near or within the region. Our main concern and the reason for the issuance of the Flood Watch is where the mesoscale banding of heavier storms develop with higher rainfall rates (2-3+ inch per hour) and where these storms could move over the same locations repeatedly. Regional rainfall amounts are forecast to be in the 1 to 3 inch range with likely isolated pockets or narrow regions with 8+ inches. This is supported by the latest 12Z HREF and REFS LPMM guidance. Flash flooding along with responses in area rivers and creeks from runoff will be possible near and downstream of those bullseyes of higher totals. Avoid low water crossings and turn around, don't drown!

Elevated heat indices remain this afternoon but daytime highs will not be as high Monday and Tuesday due to the cloud cover and the area rainfall. Along and behind the front, the winds would turn to the east-northeast for a time while the locations that primarily remain to the south of the front continues with south-southeast winds.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Rain chances late in the day on Tuesday into Tuesday night should shift towards the southeast to the coastal plains and the areas along the Texas coast. These rain chances hold through Wednesday into Thursday. This would be associated with the leftover spin in the mid-levels of the atmosphere from the disturbance meandering across Mexico, which then slowly lifts northeastward with time, generally paralleling near or along the Texas coast. This will be something to keep a close eye on as the rainfall gradient could become quite tight across our southeastern region, between areas with no to little rainfall and heavier totals. If that mid-level spin advances farther inland than forecast, then the rain chances would increase considerably farther west within our region with greater concern for heavy rainfall and additional flash flooding risk. If the current forecast holds, the daytime highs across our western and central zones rebound with returning of elevated to hazardous heat indices. Overnights stay very warm and humid.

Scattered rain and storm chances are then forecast to spread over the region once more from Friday into Saturday with the possible influence from a mid-level disturbance and/or convective outflow across the southern Texas panhandle into the San Angelo and Big Country region. Some isolated heavier downpours could again be possible with this activity. With warm and humid conditions, heat indices could still remain elevated and hazardous through this period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Extent and coverage of SHRA/TSRA will increase regionwide through today and especially overnight through Monday. Confidence in precise timing at terminals is low but overall chances are high. MVFR to IFR conditions tonight from a combination of areal low CIGs and SHRA/TSRA are expected. Additional PROB30 or TEMPO for TSRA will likely be needed for tomorrow in later TAFs at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. A weak front approaching from the north will cause winds to gradually shift to easterly/northeasterly after 18Z tomorrow, but timing is uncertain and prevailing wind outside of convection Monday is expected to be remain near or below 8 kt.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 84 74 87 / 70 80 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 84 74 86 / 70 80 50 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 84 73 85 / 70 80 60 60 Burnet Muni Airport 72 82 71 86 / 80 70 30 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 88 74 91 / 70 80 30 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 82 73 86 / 80 80 30 40 Hondo Muni Airport 76 85 73 86 / 80 80 50 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 84 73 85 / 60 80 50 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 85 75 85 / 50 80 60 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 85 74 86 / 70 90 60 60 Stinson Muni Airport 77 86 74 85 / 60 90 70 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday evening for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.