textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures through Saturday, then below average Easter Sunday through Tuesday.

- Isolated thunderstorms possible Friday evening near the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau.

- Widespread rain chances this weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This morning's beneficial rains have mostly moved out of the area now that the trough enabling them has advanced farther east. Southerly flow intersecting a weak mid-level boundary left behind by the earlier rains may continue to support a few light isolated showers, but that activity should dwindle this evening.

Humid and mild conditions continue into Friday. Low-level moisture transport across our area is expected to increase in response to a developing low-pressure system over the Central Plains. The enhanced southerly flow should get quite breezy across much of the area with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. Some more cloudiness and low potential for sporadic light streamer showers is expected during morning and afternoon. Similar to today, this will help lessen daytime temperatures somewhat mainly over the Hill Country and north of I-10 where clouds stick around longer, but it should still be a warm day regardless. For the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden areas, highs in the upper 80s to low 90s are forecast.

Moving towards late Friday afternoon, our attention turns towards a strong mid/upper level trough moving out over the Plains. Most of the energy associated with this trough will stay well north of Texas, but enough divergence aloft and heating over West Texas is forecast to initiate scattered thunderstorms along the dry line in the late afternoon to evening. Some of these storms are forecast to track east towards the southern Edwards Plateau and areas along the Rio Grande near Del Rio Friday evening. Decent buoyancy and medium amounts of bulk shear supports an isolated severe risk, mainly for large hail. A level 1 (Marginal) of 5 risk for severe weather is highlighted for the Brackettville, Del Rio, and Rocksprings areas. If these storms form, they will probably be at their peak strength over the southern Edwards Plateau. Storms should weaken Saturday night as they track east into more stable air, though some residual showers may continue across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor Saturday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The strong trough over the Plains will send a cold front southward, and this front will likely be on our doorstep by Saturday afternoon, rolling south through our area through the daytime and exiting the Rio Grande Plains and our Coastal Plains counties by about sunset. As the front catches a steady stream of deep-layer moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front throughout the afternoon to evening across South-Central Texas. Some locally heavy rain is possible as precipitable water values temporarily rise into the 1.5-1.8 inch range, or about the 99th percentile of the historical climatology, leading to a currently level 1 (Marginal) of 4 risk of excessive rainfall this weekend. This potential is slightly higher along and east of the I- 35 corridor, downstream of the flow of moisture. A few minor perturbations in the subtropical jet may produce additional rounds of showers and storms behind the front Sunday into Monday, mainly south of I-10. The GFS has been the biggest proponent of this follow- up activity, though there has been some increasing support from other models and ensembles. Drier conditions should return by Tuesday as ridging returns over the area. The latest model blend shows broad areal rain totals of around 1 inch, with higher amounts possible over the Coastal Plains and towards South Texas where chances for rain are more prolonged.

The frontal passage on Saturday should be accompanied by breezy northeasterly winds, with steady winds in the 15 to 20 mph range behind the front this weekend. This brings a cool mountain-modified airmass across the area, leading to a cool start to next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s from Easter Sunday through Tuesday. The return of drier conditions and ridging will usher a gradual warming trend through midweek next week, with highs returning to near normal in the upper 70s and low 80s across the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A typical spring diurnal trend is expected for the area TAFs in the wake of the early day wet pattern. There are still a few elevated echoes on the radar, but the majority of the forecast going until 00Z Saturday should be precipitation free. Low CIGs should take shape by late evening along I-35 and well after midnight at DRT. The higher terrain at DRT could lead to a few hours of IFR CIGs by daybreak. Most or all of the TAF sites should see the MVFR skies linger into the early afternoon before mixing back to VFR. SE winds will shift directions in their typical diurnal fashion with midday and evening gusts over 25 knots possible at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 88 68 78 / 10 10 50 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 70 88 69 78 / 10 10 50 100 New Braunfels Muni Airport 69 88 68 80 / 10 10 50 90 Burnet Muni Airport 67 83 63 73 / 10 10 50 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 90 70 78 / 10 40 50 80 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 85 67 75 / 10 10 50 80 Hondo Muni Airport 67 90 67 78 / 20 10 50 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 69 88 69 79 / 10 10 40 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 86 70 81 / 0 10 20 90 San Antonio Intl Airport 70 89 70 79 / 10 10 50 90 Stinson Muni Airport 70 90 71 81 / 10 10 40 90

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.