textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Hot and mostly rain free conditions through next week.

- Driest air over the region today and Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A southward sagging frontal boundary along with outflow propagation led to isolated to scattered showers and storms yesterday afternoon and early evening across the region, with the greatest concentration of heavy rain across portions of southeast Edwards, southern Real, northern Uvalde, and northeastern Kinney counties. As forecasted, we did pickup a few isolated pockets of up to 2.5 to 3.5 inches across this region within a 1 to 2 hour period. Minor flooding near Concan was reported with a few road closures and a slight bump up in the flow on the Frio River from around 500 cfs to 1,000 cfs. This front will continue to sag southward today. With it's nearby proximity and lingering moisture, may see a slight chance (10-20%) for showers or a stray storm from Atascosa/DeWitt counties into our southwestern most Grande Plain counties later this morning into the early afternoon.

Much drier air, especially across the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere, will otherwise filter southward across the region from today into tonight. The ensemble mean on the HREF has precipitable water values dropping into the lowest 5 percentile range for this time of year. That drier air and the return of sunnier skies should help dew points to mix out into the mid to upper 50s for locations generally along and north of I-10 during this afternoon. For Monday afternoon, most locations see dew points slip into the 50s except across our far southeastern most counties. Given the drier air, overnight lows should dip slightly, more noticeably across the Hill Country. The afternoon highs today and Monday are as hot or even a degree or two hotter as the drier air will be easier and more efficient to heat up. We'll raise the high temperatures above the National Blended Guidance (NBM) but not as high as the MOS guidance with it's warm bias so far this summer across our region. With the drier heat, peak heat indices are not be as high compared to the past few days.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The mid-level pattern over the CONUS through mid to late next week features troughing from the Ohio Valley towards the Atlantic coastline while ridging over the Desert Southwest elongates and stretches across Texas. This will result in a seasonably hot and rain free pattern across our local region. Daytime highs range in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Low-level dew points and cloud cover gradually creep upwards, especially along and east of the I-35 corridor, with a slight uptick in the onshore flow coming from the gulf. Late week into the start of the weekend may see isolated sea breeze activity across the CRP/HGX CWAs that could approach our far southeastern most counties, like Lavaca County, elsewhere rain free conditions should prevail.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR ceilings are expected through the forecast period with little in the way of operational concern. Winds will shift from more light and variable to northeasterly through the night. Northeasterly flow continues through the day today at less than 10 kts followed by a shift back to easterly winds after 00Z Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 101 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 100 73 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 98 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 100 77 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 98 73 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 98 73 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 100 74 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 100 74 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 100 75 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 100 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.