textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Cloudy with rain initially beginning out west then filling in across the region later today into this evening.

- Wet, dreary, and cool weather for Sunday and Monday with the arrival of several rounds of mostly beneficial rainfall.

- Embedded heavier rain and storms to be expected at times and results in a risk for flooding.

- Drying out some with milder temperatures mid to late week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A cutoff upper level low in Mexico to our west will slowly approach before eventually moving into the state with progression through the short term period. Our region is in a favorable position in advance of this upper low for multiple rounds of rain. These rains will be further aided by isentropic lift with continued north-northeasterly surface flow and coastal troughing in South Texas. Initial showers are beginning to move into our western most counties and expect for activity to continue to fill in and expand eastward in coverage as we advance later in the day and this evening. There will be embedded heavier showers along with some storm activity in these rounds of activity. The best chance for thunder could actually favor this evening into the overnight when the region has the highest instability according to the short term guidance before values lower even less into Sunday. However, some thunder still may be possible with any slantwise (CSI) instability.

Most of the rain should be beneficial across the region with rainfall rates rather manageable but corridors on where any heavier showers and storms track over the same locations or over urban landscapes (where it would take less rain to induce flooding) would be the most at risk for flooding with this event. WPC maintains a level 1 of 4 risk along and west of the US highway 281 corridor through early Sunday morning and up to a level 2 of 4 risk Sunday into early Monday morning, with again the greatest centered along and west of the highway 281 corridor. Overall, we're still looking at about 1 to 4 inches on average through Monday night. Isolated higher amounts to around 6 inches will be possible, especially closer to our border with the CRP CWA. In general, highest amounts remain focused across the western 2/3rds of the region while the locations in our east/northeastern most locations would be the region that may struggle most to get to 1 inch.

The overcast skies and soggy weather will keep daytime temperatures much cooler, especially Sunday and Monday. The daytime highs will remain stuck from the upper 50s into the low to mid 60s across the majority of the region. The overnight lows maintain mainly in the 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The main upper level low will exit to the northeast towards Tuesday but guidance does have lingering shortwave energy lingering behind the system through Tuesday into Tuesday night. This and still the presence of some coastal troughing to the south looks to keep in some low end pops (20-30%) across the area, favoring along and east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures look to trend slightly milder thanks to any breaks that may occur within the clouds but it's now looking more likely to be a struggle on getting any warmer than the upper 60s or low 70s across the region.

Longwave troughing becomes entrenched from the Ohio Valley into the Mississippi valley from Wednesday into Thursday. Shortwave energy advancing southeastward from the Central plains into East Texas or into the Texarkana region on the western periphery of the troughing looks to help advance a weak cold front across our region sometime late in the day on Wednesday into Wednesday night. The northwest flow behind this front helps to usher in some drier air and pushes any lingering rain chances in our eastern areas more to the southeast and out from our area by Wednesday night.

The end of the workweek into the start of the next weekend looks to trend pleasant with returning ample sunshine and low humidity with no rain chances. The daytime highs trend seasonable in the low to mid 70s while overnight lows trend cooler, dipping ranging from mid to upper 40s into the low 50s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Deteriorating conditions will occur from SW to NE late this afternoon with a broad area of rain and showers moves into South TX for the next few days. The low latitude track of the upper low will enhance NE flow and the overall overrunning pattern and a coastal low to enhance overall speeds of the winds at SAT/SSF. By early this evening most conditions should settle mainly into a prolonged period of mainly IFR CIGS, although some periods of LIFR and MVFR conditions could mix in between rounds of rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 56 64 54 67 / 70 90 70 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 56 65 53 66 / 60 90 70 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 57 64 53 66 / 70 90 80 80 Burnet Muni Airport 55 62 53 65 / 80 90 60 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 58 62 58 64 / 90 100 100 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 63 53 66 / 80 80 60 40 Hondo Muni Airport 59 65 55 65 / 100 100 90 100 San Marcos Muni Airport 56 63 53 66 / 70 90 80 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 58 65 55 67 / 50 90 60 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 58 63 55 65 / 80 100 90 90 Stinson Muni Airport 60 64 57 66 / 80 100 90 100

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.