textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 658 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon and early evening over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Warm temperatures persist through the week with most areas remaining dry.

- Increased moisture brings scattered showers and thunderstorms this weekend with perhaps a slight drop in temperatures.

UPDATE

Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

We've added some low chances for showers or thunderstorms west of San Antonio for the next few hours with activity continuing. Storms have been weakening and that should continue as the sun sets.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Remnant MCV from early morning convection is over the Edwards Plateau region this afternoon. This feature along with daytime heating has allowed for some afternoon convection to develop over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country region. The NBM pops look a little low and have opted to trend higher given hi-res model trends. Slow storm motions combined with adequate moisture will likely result in some isolated pockets of locally heavy rainfall for the above mentioned areas. Convection should begin to decrease with the loss of daytime heating, but we did opt to extend a low chance for showers and storms into the mid-evening hours. For Tuesday, any lingering rain chances will likely be tied to the location of any remnant MCV activity from today. For now, we will only keep a slight chance (20%) for some afternoon showers in storms in the forecast across the Hill Country. Temperatures remain steady through Tuesday with highs in the mid 90s to near 100 along with overnight lows in the 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For the midweek period, the subtropical ridge axis begins to build in from the west resulting in a dry forecast along with a slight upward bump in temperatures across the region. south central Texas. Most areas should still see highs in the mid 90s to lower 100s along with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. We may need to monitor for the possibility of some isolated convection near the coastal plains, but confidence is not high enough to mention in the forecast at this time. Some afternoon heat index values near 106 degrees will be possible in the coastal plains region.

For the upcoming weekend into early next week, the center of the subtropical high builds northward into the central Rockies. Farther south, an inverted trough in the mid-levels will develop over the western Gulf allowing for an increase in moisture levels to take place across south central Texas. The increased moisture and weak upper trough axis should allow for scattered convection to develop this weekend into Monday, mainly during the peak heating hours. High temperatures may take a slight dip during the weekend into early next week, with 90s in the forecast, while overnight lows remain steady in the 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Corrected typo about AUS Convection chances. At send time, there is a bubble of energy connecting the weak moisture conveyor into the the MCV driven convection over the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country with some light sea-breeze activity. While we are expecting the areas of cumulus only bring a brief sprinkle to the SAT/SSF area, we opted to leave out any mention of VCSH. We're slightly more confident the boundaries approaching ABIA are NOT going to be capable of triggering convection as the surrounding cumulus field looks more suppressed. The outflow currently over DRT should end any threat for new convection for the night. No additional convective coverage is expected to impact the TAF sites through Tuesday, as high pressure should strengthen overhead from the west Tuesday afternoon. Light wind flows tonight should not prevent a brief low CIG, but they should make it unlikely for the MVFR stratus to be able to hang around for very long.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 96 75 97 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 74 95 74 96 / 10 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 99 78 100 / 20 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 77 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 75 95 75 95 / 20 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 96 75 97 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 97 77 97 / 0 10 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 96 76 96 / 10 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.