textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Temperatures to remain near or just above climatological normals through the next seven days.

- Most areas remain dry, with only a low chance for some afternoon convection in and near the coastal plains region.

UPDATE

Issued at 457 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving across the Coastal Plains and the northern I-35 Corridor. This activity is farther inland then we had previously anticipated, so we have added some slight chance POPs into the I-35 Corridor for a few more hours.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A few showers are noted across the coastal plains region early this afternoon. With continued heating, we expect showers to continue along with the possibility of a few thunderstorms developing during the peak heating hours. We did opt to expand rain chances a little farther west across Gonzales County and into the eastern portions of Guadalupe and Wilson Counties based on recent hi-res guidance. While some of the hi-res members show convection approaching the I-35 corridor, we have held off on expanding rain chances into the mentioned region at this time. Will continue to monitor satellite and radar trends and adjust the forecast as needed. Otherwise, expect near normal temperatures through the short term period, with a few spots in the coastal plains approaching heat index values of 108 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The weather pattern favors temperatures to remain at or above normal through the remainder of the weekend and into late next week. In addition, dry weather is expected as the subtropical ridge remains the dominant weather feature through the forecast period. Some of the medium range models do show a weak, mid-level shear axis dropping southward out of north Texas late Saturday into Sunday. We will monitor this and see if any convection that develops to our north sends any outflow boundaries southward. At this time, confidence is too low to mention any rain chances for our northern areas (Hill Country and I-35 corridor north of Austin). Also, we can't rule out some isolated convection over the coastal plains region and may need to add some low chances for this early next week.

Temperatures appear to slowly inch upward, especially as we head into the middle of next week. We could see some heat index values nudge upward toward the 108 degree mark for areas along and east of I-35 possibly beginning as early as Tuesday. Both the ECMWF and GFS MOS guidance agree in showing highs trending above normal for much of the mid to late portion of next week as mid and upper level high pressure over the Gulf builds into south Texas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR cigs to continue at all I-35 TAF sites through this evening and into the overnight hours. By early morning could see KSAT and KSSF drop down to MVFR cigs as stratus develops once again like the previous few mornings. Not as confident in this occurring for that long at KSAT so added a TEMPO in from 11Z to 13Z. Higher confidence for KSSF from 10Z to 16Z. KAUS should remain VFR throughout the entire forecast period. Winds at all I-35 TAF sites should remain south to southeasterly under 15 knots. For KDRT expect VFR cigs to continue through the period with east to southeasterly winds at or under 15 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 97 76 97 / 20 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 97 75 96 / 20 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 96 73 96 / 10 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 97 75 97 / 20 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 96 76 95 / 20 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 96 76 96 / 20 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 76 97 76 98 / 20 0 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.