textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Daily rain chances through at least Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding possible.

- Best chances for heavy rain Monday night through Thursday night. - Dry weather returns over the weekend

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue along the Rio Grande Plains and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau for the rest of this afternoon and into tonight. Increased moisture across most of South Central Texas can be verified by the 12Z Del Rio sounding which reported a precipitable water value of 2.1 inches. This value is near the max value for Del Rio station. With this tropical airmass in place and southerly flow dominating from the surface to 20,000 ft, we are anticipating heavy downpours that could quickly produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall per hour. One of the main features of this unsettled weather is the mid to upper level disturbance rotating between northeast Mexico and portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Another feature to look for and responsible of the ongoing convection along the middle and east Texas coast is the seabreeze convergence zone. These showers and storms are slowly moving to the north and affecting portions of the Coastal Plains. This trend is forecast to continue for the rest of this afternoon and provides chances for rain along the I-35 corridor through the period. Once the Sun goes down, the focus for showers and storms continues across the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau where better forcing exists. This trend could persist through Monday morning.

There may by a lull in shower and storm activity on Monday morning but storms return late morning into the afternoon with daytime heating taking place. Also, the above mentioned upper level disturbance is forecast to linger around the Pecos area while a frontal boundary pushes across central Texas. This setup could result on rounds of heavy rain across most of South Central Texas especially the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country. Remember, that the tropical airmass in place is loaded with pwats around 2 inches. This means that any moderate to strong storm could produce 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in a short period of time resulting in localized flooding.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

As we enter the extended forecast period especially the Tuesday through Thursday time frame, the setup for heavy rain is becoming more clear as the upper level disturbance above mentioned shifts to the Rio Grande Plains and stays there. In the mean time, pulses of energy coming out from northeast Mexico move over the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country. With that said, there is a potential for a heavy rain event over these areas for at least 48 to 72 hours. Areas along Del Rio to Eagle Pass and points to the east are urge to pay close attention to weather conditions and updates. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are suggesting significant rainfall that could lead to flooding. With rich moisture and good forcing through the period, storm rainfall totals (From this morning through Friday morning) of 4 to 8 inches can't be ruled out. A Flood Watch could be issued within the next 48 hours if the heavy rainfall signal continues to show in newest model runs and hires solutions.

By Friday evening into next weekend, the weather pattern changes with dry conditions for most areas. By the way, during the wet period, highs are forecast to stay in the 80s for most of South Central Texas with 90s back for next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Primary concerns today revolve around convective potential. Confidence in overall coverage is high, but it should be less widespread than yesterday, so PROB30 groups are utilized rather than TEMPO or prevailing like was used on Saturday. Winds should remain lighter, less than 10 kts, with a general east to southeasterly component through the forecast period. MVFR ceilings and perhaps a shot at IFR ceilings return tonight after 09Z at SAT, SSF, and AUS, and later at DRT. For now, have opted to keep TSRA mention out of the forecast beyond 00Z tonight as confidence is too low to introduce PROB30 or greater odds at all TAF sites.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 77 91 74 86 / 10 50 60 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 91 74 86 / 10 50 50 80 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 92 74 87 / 10 40 60 60 Burnet Muni Airport 74 90 72 84 / 10 40 60 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 76 93 75 89 / 50 20 60 60 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 91 73 85 / 20 50 60 90 Hondo Muni Airport 75 91 74 87 / 30 10 60 40 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 91 74 87 / 10 40 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 90 75 86 / 20 60 50 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 91 76 87 / 10 20 50 50 Stinson Muni Airport 77 91 76 88 / 10 20 60 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.