textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions expected through Monday with another cold front bringing fire weather concerns today and Saturday.

- Coldest air of this winter season to bring what should be the first widespread freeze to all areas Sunday.

- Chances for rain arrive next week as early as Tuesday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Another high amplitude upper trough digs into the south central CONUS today, and with it comes the next surge of polar air. The front has been seen in the deterministic dprog/dt views to accelerate slightly, so we opted for some influence of some of the faster timing seen in the higher resolution models. There should be a nice morning of sunny skies and winds from the south and west to boost up most daytime highs into the 70s, but the Edwards Plateau and far northern Hill Country counties will have the front slipping into our area before noon and flattening of the warming. Main concerns from the front is the impacts on our already active fire season, and more on this will be covered below. As the front invades south, it will go into areas already into the 70s and will be less able to curb an additional 1 or 2 degrees of afternoon heating behind the initial shift, but sharper cooling will arrive at sunset, and our northern counties could see freezing temps by Saturday morning. Winds will stay up through most of the night over southern counties so most areas should see lows in the 40s.

Surface winds may be relaxed a bit early in the day Saturday, but a secondary lobe of vorticity from the digging trough sends a stronger surge of cold and dry air into the region by midday. More fire weather concerns will be addressed on this period below. High temperatures Saturday are expected to be generally 10 to 20 degrees colder than those expected today.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Two straight nights of cold air advection will provide a much more thorough freeze, so we may be able to close out the chapter of the Freeze Warning issuance for first freezes of the season. Coldest temperatures in our CWA should be around 20 degrees, with some isolated Hill Country pockets in the teens possible. Most of the major metro areas should expect what we would call a light freeze, generally at or above 28 degrees.

The upper trough flattens out as the deeper vorticity rotates NE into the Atlantic coast, but there is a hint of another shortwave that could sends us a backdoor and reinforcing cold front Monday. More importantly though, the skies are expected to stay mostly sunny Sunday and early Monday to help get low level cold layer of temperatures to get back above freezing. Unless this potential backdoor front trends stronger in future model cycles, the consensus trend is slightly warmer in the period Monday afternoon and Monday night. This is helpful, because we'll have a quick increase in Pacific moisture and a possible overrunning rain pattern developing as early as daytime Tuesday. Even if a light winter mix were to introduce the precipitation event, the change-over to rain would come quick and not create any travel issues. Best rain chances will likely fall on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Southerly wind will generally be 12 knots or less through this morning. A front moves across the area midday with gusty north winds behind it. Wind gusts will generally be from 20-25 knots. Wind decreases in the west, including at DRT, after 00Z while wind remains elevated in the east overnight into Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Humidities will remain plenty dry through the weekend into Monday. Light improvement to the humidity values will occur early today, but not enough to prevent elevated to near critical fire weather conditions from impacting much of the area when another afternoon cold front passage picks up the wind gusts and dries the area out again late in the day. The post-frontal winds get a reinforcing push Saturday, and again, nearly all areas could see near critical fire weather conditions. With dry air settling over the area with light winds a curing freeze is expected to finally cover all areas of South Central Texas Sunday morning. Monday will show slightly warmer and continued dry weather. Then Tuesday into early Thursday, there could be a potential for wetting rains for most of the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 39 53 29 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 39 54 25 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 39 55 27 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 33 50 26 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 36 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 36 53 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 40 58 25 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 39 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 41 55 28 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 42 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 44 57 29 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.