textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions across south central Texas on Saturday.

- A freeze in store for most of the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau into the Rio Grande plains Saturday night/Sunday morning.

- Cool and cloudy conditions for the start of next week, followed by a brief warm-up toward the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1212 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Radar trends over the coastal plains picked up earlier this evening, with observations and radar estimating some 0.5 to 1.5 inch amounts across northern DeWitt into central Lavaca counties. Radar data also showed some similar estimates along the Lee and Washington County line. The heavier activity will remain east of our region, but may hold on to some low rain chances for a few more hours over far southeastern Lavaca county.

Drier air behind a cold front has already moved into most of south central Texas, with a reinforcing shot of cooler air and gusty winds expected to move in beginning early this morning. A fairly tight pressure gradient could yield some brief Wind Advisory conditions (sustained winds 26 mph) early this morning, mainly across the higher elevations of the Hill Country. These conditions should be brief and isolated and for now we will hold off on a the issuance of a Wind Advisory. We will continue to monitor upstream observations and incoming hi-res guidance this morning and adjust the forecast as needed. We do expect a windy day on Saturday given cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient. Wind gusts up to around 40 mph will be possible, especially across the Hill Country into most of the I-35 corridor. Highs today will be much cooler, with mid 50s to lower 60s in the forecast. Wind speeds will gradually diminish by mid-evening as surface high pressure continues to settle across the region. With winds likely to remain lighter across portions of the Rio Grande plains, southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, we expect to see a freeze across these areas. We may need a Freeze Warning for Val Verde and Kinney counties as these counties have yet to see a widespread freeze this season. We will hold off on a Freeze Warning for now as the latest models indicate an increase in cloud cover late Saturday night, which will limit radiational cooling. Clouds will certainly be on the increase Sunday and this will help keep highs down in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1212 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Clouds continue Sunday night and this will moderate overnight lows across the region with mid 30s to lower 40s expected. If some breaks in the clouds manage to develop, a few spots over the Hill Country may approach the freezing mark early Monday morning. For Monday into Tuesday, an upper low initially over the Baja peninsula gradually slides eastward with time. There will be plenty of mid and upper level moisture across the region, but the lower levels should remain fairly dry. We do expect some weak lift courtesy of an upper jet and the closed low, so will have some low rain chances in the forecast for the Rio Grande plains Monday. Rain chances remain low, but do shift eastward into the Hill Country and portions of the I-35 corridor into Tuesday. With moisture levels higher out west near the Rio Grande, any chance for measurable precipitation would be favored here.

The upper low moves east of the area Wednesday and this will push any precipitation chances out of the region. Temperatures should warm up into the upper 60s and lower 70s before another weak front slides southward helping to keep highs mainly in the 60s on Thursday. West to northwest flow will be in place Friday, allowing temperatures to briefly nudge upward a few degrees. Just beyond the current forecast period, strong ridging aloft over the western U.S. helps develop near meridional flow in the mid and upper levels from central Canada southward into the Great Plains. This pattern bears watching as we could see some much colder temperatures sliding southward toward the region roughly a week or so away.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR flying conditions with northerly winds increasing to 12 to 24 KTs with gusts of 30 to 35 KTs overnight through much of Saturday, then decreasing to 5 to 10 KTs Saturday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1212 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A cold front will bring dry air and breezy to windy conditions to all of south central Texas today. While fire danger should mainly be in the moderate category, with perhaps a few pockets of high, the increase in winds and dry air will result in elevated to near critical fire weather conditions today. A Rangeland Fire Danger statement will be in effect across all of south central Texas. Wind speeds will gradually diminish this evening across all areas, but dry air remains in place.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 59 37 63 41 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 59 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 55 32 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 60 33 60 43 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 58 34 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 60 33 62 40 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 35 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 59 37 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 38 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 61 39 62 44 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.