textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday evening for most of South Central Texas.

- Redevelopment of storms is possible overnight over the Hill Country or I-35 Corridor, but uncertain.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then decrease heading into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A rather tricky forecast for the early morning hours of Friday as hi- res guidance is in disagreement on whether or not storms will redevelop along the I-35 Corridor/within the Hill Country. The RRFS and HRRR have been aggressive in forming additional convection between 04-06Z and continuing through the morning hours, however, the WoFS and other models have been less enthusiastic about redevelopment. As it stands right now, convection in the CRP CWA may hold the keys to whether or not additional storms develop behind the convection to our south and east as southerly flow at 850mb is still noted per the latest mesoanalysis. If convection along the coast weakens a bit, that may open the door for redevelopment further inland.

The remainder of the day Friday brings some uncertainties, but with 500mb troughing still in play and plenty of anomalously high moisture to work with, scattered showers and storms will likely develop across the region. A Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for flooding is in place and the Flood Watch continues through Friday evening. With already saturated soils, additional flooding is possible and it wouldn't take much to get runoff. Saturday will feature continued rain chances as the trough remains situated over Texas, with widely scattered showers and storms expected, however, the flooding threat looks lower as deeper tropical moisture is kicked further southward.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 124 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

On Sunday, PWATs start to notably trend down as northerly flow from the sfc to 850 mb increases as the 500mb trough breaks down and weak west-northwesterly flow resumes. A few showers or storms are possible still, despite decreasing moisture, primarily over the eastern half of South Central Texas. By Monday, dry weather is expected for all of South Central Texas as highs climb into the lower 80s each day through Thursday along with plenty of sunshine.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Poor flying conditions remain with the previous forecast package on track. Made a couple adjustments to refine when I-35 sites will see convection. Still feel the best time is now until the early morning hours. Additionally KSAT has been dropping in and out of LIFR so have added a TEMPO for the next few hours to account for this. Otherwise expect IFR CIGs for the remainder of the overnight and early morning hours. MVFR should return by the early afternoon hours with VFR CIGs briefly making a return by late afternoon or early evening hours before dropping back down to MVFR. There remains a chance of SCT to ISO SHRAs and TSRAs tomorrow afternoon for these sites as well. For KDRT VFR CIGs should prevail and have once again refined the PROB30 precip chances to tomorrow evening. We will continue to monitor and amend as needed as we get closer in time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 80 71 81 70 / 70 70 50 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 80 70 82 70 / 70 60 60 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 69 83 70 / 70 60 50 50 Burnet Muni Airport 77 68 76 68 / 70 70 50 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 88 67 78 68 / 20 70 60 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 69 79 69 / 70 70 50 50 Hondo Muni Airport 81 68 82 69 / 70 60 30 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 81 69 82 69 / 70 60 50 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 71 84 71 / 70 40 70 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 80 71 82 71 / 70 60 40 40 Stinson Muni Airport 82 72 84 72 / 70 60 40 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ171>173-186>194-203>209- 218>225-228.