textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- There is a potential for life threatening flooding across part of South Central Texas this evening through Thursday evening

- Flood Watch is in effect for a good portion of South Central Texas from 9 PM this evening through Thursday evening - Stay weather aware and check for updates as we go through this wet and significant rain pattern

- Dry weather returns for the upcoming weekend

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Latest satellite and radar images are showing convection across central Texas and near Val Verde County. The shower and storm activity across central Texas is associated with a mid to upper level trough that extends east to west across the state while the activity north of Val Verde County is a combination of the tail end of the trough interacting with a mid to upper level disturbance over west Texas. This weather pattern is forecast to continue for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Outflow boundaries developing along the trough are forecast to push to the south into the Hill Country late afternoon and evening as the mid to upper level trough moves to the southeast. Now, the situation with this picture is the tropical moisture in place across South Central Texas. So what this means for us? Well, this morning upper air sounding out of Del Rio recorded 2.28 inches of precipitable water, which exceeded the daily max value for today (average is around 1.5 inches). These 2+ inch values could be found across most of South Central Texas early this afternoon based on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis page. With such rich tropical moisture in place and upscale forcing support, heavy rainfall is forecast mid to late afternoon into the evening across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and along and east of Interstate 35. Wind shear values are weak which could lead to storm's training. Intense rainfall rates are anticipated with these storms which could lead to very high rainfall rates with up to 2 to 4 inches per hour at times. This event is not only for late this afternoon into the evening and continuing overnight mainly across the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains, it goes for several days with the potential of heavy rainfall. With that said, a Flood Watch has been issued for this evening starting at 9 PM through Thursday evening. There is a potential for life threatening flooding somewhere in the watch area and we urge residents and visitors of South Central Texas to stay weather aware and check on weather updates. Storm rainfall total are expected to exceed 2 inches to around 4 inches with the potential up to 10 inches for the Flood Watch duration. There are going to be several rounds of heavy rainfall during the short term period entering the long term forecast time frame. By the way, the Weather Prediction Center has placed a moderate (level 3 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau especially for the tonight period, Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning and again Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. Note: Have not seen these back to back moderate EROs in over a decade. For Tuesday evening, the increase of the low level jet brings another round of heavy rainfall mainly across the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains. We are going to closely monitor this wet pattern and can't rule out the expansion of the Flood Watch in the future. Time will tell. This is a very moist airmass that we are dealing with and the right features in place to make it a significant one.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The wet pattern continues on Wednesday and Thursday with the mid to upper level disturbance over west Texas staying put in addition to pulses of energy coming in from the southwest flow aloft. This setup continues to pull increased moisture across the local area and likely to result in heavy rainfall leading to more flooding and flash flooding on both days. By Friday, pwats decrease significantly based on forecast soundings. We may have the last episode of moderate to heavy rain before entering to a drier weekend. Due to the projected rains and wet soils, daytime highs are going to be at or slightly below normal values for the rest of the work week but back to the 90s over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Convective activity will increase over the area this afternoon especially after 21Z. Scattered/widespread TSRA is expected to push south to the KAUS area late afternoon and KSAT area this evening, spreading west to KDRT by 09Z. Storms may evolve from scattered TS to a solid line/cluster. This will focus tonight's storm activity, but additional SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop again after 12Z. CIG forecast is highly uncertain due to TS influences, but expect a patchwork of MVFR/VFR conditions throughout the region after 03Z. Further degradation to IFR CIGs is possible near DRT after 12Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 87 73 86 / 70 80 60 80 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 87 73 86 / 70 90 60 70 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 88 73 86 / 70 70 50 80 Burnet Muni Airport 72 84 70 84 / 70 90 60 80 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 86 72 84 / 60 80 70 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 73 85 71 86 / 70 90 60 80 Hondo Muni Airport 74 86 72 83 / 70 60 70 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 88 73 86 / 70 70 60 80 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 85 74 86 / 60 80 40 70 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 87 74 85 / 60 60 50 80 Stinson Muni Airport 77 88 75 85 / 60 50 50 80

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 9 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for TXZ171>173-183>192-202>206-217>219-228.