textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to critical fire weather conditions expected across South Central Texas Saturday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions expected along and east of I-35 on Sunday. Locally elevated fire weather conditions continue into each afternoon through early next week west of I-35.

- Above average temperatures continue through Saturday, then trending cooler early next week. Well above normal temperatures return by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A weak backdoor cold front is slowly sagging south across our area this afternoon, leading to some continued cloudiness and temperatures staying cool mainly north of I-10. Tonight will be less foggy/misty and slightly cooler for most as the front drops farther south across South-Central Texas, with lows mostly in the 50s. Some fog, mostly pre-dawn, may spread across the Coastal Plains before drier air arrives.

The primary feature of interest is a dry Pacific front that will be pushing in from the northwest Saturday morning. A very dry north wind will develop behind the front by the late morning and continue throughout the day. As low relative humidity and breezy winds spread across much of South-Central Texas, near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected. See the Fire Weather section for additional information on fire weather conditions. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph are anticipated across the region with gusts up to 25- 30 mph.

The lead Pacific front won't initially bring much cooler air, so highs Saturday are still forecast to rise into the 70s to low 80s. The more noticeable change arrives Saturday night when a cooler airmass dislodged off the Rockies arrives. This and a steady north wind will bring lows in the 30s and 40s. There may be sufficient cold air advection heading into Monday morning to support a brief and patchy light freeze in Hill Country valleys.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Ridging will already be starting to rebuild over the Desert Southwest heading into next week, but the persistence of northwest flow aloft will help slow the associated warmup, at least initially. Surface high pressure moves over our area Monday, bringing the coolest air in the forecast period lows in the 30s and seasonable highs in the 60s to low 70s. Southerly winds then return by Monday night, signaling the start of a warming trend.

Tuesday should still be seasonable with highs nudging up into the 70s, but more noticeable changes are expected Wednesday as southerly flow strengthens ahead of a mid-level trough passing north of the area. The trough trajectory favors the spread of warm plateau air over South-Central Texas, helping to push highs back into the 80s for most with low 90s closer to the Rio Grande. On Thursday, an upper-level trough tracks across the Central to Southern Plains. This may bring slightly cooler air, but the timing is uncertain. If that air is slow to arrive with a weaker trough, then conditions are favorable on Thursday to register the warmest air of the week with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s as northwesterly winds favor downsloping along the Balcones Escarpment. Otherwise, a stronger and faster trough could bring some slight temperature reductions for Thursday and Friday if that air trends faster.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A stationary front is stretched across the region between Austin and San Antonio. There are northerly winds at AUS and easterly winds in the San Antonio area. There is a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings, but the trend is toward VFR at all sites for the late afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will return overnight in Austin and San Antonio, but not Del Rio. The front will become progressive Saturday bringing strong, gusty northerly winds during the morning that will continue through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The arrival of a Pacific front Saturday with dry and breezy post- frontal conditions is forecast to produce near-critical to critical fire weather conditions across South-Central Texas between the late morning to early evening hours Saturday.

The lack of a strong mid-level jet and some misalignment in the low- level winds behind the front will moderate the strength of gusts relative to the mean wind, but nonetheless sustained north winds of 10-20 mph are well-represented in the latest high resolution models across South-Central Texas for Saturday. Models have come into better agreement regarding the pace and timing of the wedge of dry air spreading behind the front. The mean HREF ensemble indicates sub- 20% RH beginning to spread across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country by 10 AM CST, reaching the I-35 corridor by noon and across most of South-Central Texas in the early afternoon. Preceding RH and fuel moisture is in ordinary ranges, so fuel drying will be mainly evident in finer fuels. The spread of this drier air should match up with the spread of near-critical to critical conditions. The 12Z Texas Tech WRF run projected Red Flag Threat Index values of 5 to 6, supporting critical fire weather conditions.

Confidence in critical thresholds being met is highest in the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and San Antonio area, with the HREF model ensemble indicating an 80 percent chance. Mid-level cloudiness during the afternoon may mitigate some surface heating, but regardless, the likelihood of critical fire weather conditions is generally high enough throughout most of South-Central Texas to warrant the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Saturday, valid 10 AM CST to 9 PM CST. A few counties along US-77 and north of US-290 were not included in the warning due to uncertainties in low RH, given cooler temperatures and a lack of a westerly component in the flow later in the day, but elevated to near-critical fire weather is still expected. The arrival of cooler air Saturday night from north to south is expected to be sufficient to bring an end to the critical fire weather period.

Cooler temperatures enter across the area Sunday, but the spread of drier air will continue to support elevated to near critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon mainly along and east of the I- 35 corridor where winds remain gusty into the afternoon. Dry air lingers into Monday as breezy southeast winds return to the Rio Grande, with lighter east winds elsewhere. Additional elevated fire weather concerns continue each afternoon to midweek as dry air remains, mainly west of I-35.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 55 74 41 65 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 53 75 40 65 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 54 76 40 65 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 49 70 37 63 / 0 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 59 78 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 52 72 37 63 / 0 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 54 77 38 67 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 54 77 40 65 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 56 77 41 65 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 57 76 42 65 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 57 78 43 67 / 0 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CST Saturday for TXZ183>193- 202>208-217>224-228.