textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue today for portions of the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and I-35 corridor.

- A warming trend continues through this week with record highs possible Friday into the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Near Critical fire weather conditions continue today as southerly low level flow continues across the area leading to low RH values. Additionally, dry to critically dry fuels exist across most of the area helping to enhance the fire weather threat. We should see lows tonight be somewhat warmer than last night along with decent moisture recovery as the high pressure over us the past couple days departs off to the east. Expect lows tonight under partly cloudy skies to remain in the low to mid 40s. We continue our slow warmup into Wednesday as we start to become influenced by a deep ridge out over the desert southwest. Mid level winds will remain northerly while we continue to see southerly winds at the lower levels thus helping to keep our area in a drier pattern. As such, highs on Wednesday should remain in the mid to upper 70s with low 80s across the Rio Grande Plains. Expect even warmer overnight lows Wednesday night as southerly flow continues with lows in the low 50s along with increasing moisture once again across the area.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Our warming trend continues for the long term as a strong thermal ridge continues to slowly push eastward from the Desert Southwest. We will begin to feel its influence by Thursday and especially over this weekend as the ridge will be centered just off to our west across West TX. Strong surface heating will allow temps to ramp up into the upper 80s Thursday and into the low to mid 90s over the weekend. In fact, some records at San Antonio and Austin may be in jeopardy as this unseasonably warm airmass continues. There remains little chance of a cooldown beyond this weekend even as guidance continues to indicate a weak cold front trying to push through the area. However, with the strength of this ridge just to our west, tend to lean towards the ridge winning out and thus our area staying warm and well above normal for this time of year. Additionally, we remain dry with no chance of rain in sight through the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Breezy south to southeasterly winds through the day today, mainly around 10-12 kts with VFR ceilings and FEW250. Winds will shift to light and variable after sunset this evening at SAT and SSF and remain southerly at AUS. DRT will continue with gusts of 20-25 kts through sunset before gusts drop off and sustained speeds of 10-12 kts continue through the remainder of the period. South to southwesterly flow returns by mid to late Wednesday morning with continued VFR ceilings.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Very dry air persists with relative humidity values of 5-20 percent noted across the region this afternoon Breezy southerly winds will be strongest along and west of the I-35 corridor where 20 ft sustained winds of 10-20 mph are forecast this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for those areas through 8 PM this evening for these near-critical fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Record | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |

(03/20) (03/21) (03/22)

AUS | 92 (1976) | 90 (1952) | 98 (1971) | ATT | 91 (1976) | 91 (1952/1917) | 96 (1971) | SAT | 93 (1976) | 94 (1904) | 96 (1971) | DRT | 96 (1932) | 93 (1916/1907) | 96 (1995) |

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 67 45 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 66 41 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 41 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 65 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 46 81 53 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 66 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 67 41 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 41 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 65 42 78 50 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 44 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 67 43 79 52 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.