textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Active and unsettled weather pattern to return Tuesday through late Wednesday with localized flooding issues possible.

- Strong to severe storms are also possible Tuesday evening and night, primarily over the Rio Grande Plains.

- Warmer and drier weather looks possible by late week into next weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Storms have weakened over south central Texas this evening but continue over north and central Texas. For now, the expectation is for these other storms to remain north of our CWA and have little to no impact on our sensible weather through the night. The latest CAMs are also in agreement that these storms to our north will weaken quickly before midnight. There is a chance these could maintain some intensity as they sag south, but the latest thinking is that loss of daytime heating will weaken them with time.

Memorial Day will feature warm conditions once again, with an shot at afternoon showers and storms as remnant MCV sags south over the Hill Country and northern I-35 Corridor Monday. Both the 00Z RRFS and HRRR are on board with this scenario, along with the NSSL WRF, ARW, FV3, and NAM 3km. Temperatures should still warm into the upper 80s to middle 90s under east-southeasterly surface flow.

Tuesday will be the start of one more stretch of active weather as an upper-level trough approaches from the west. This will result in enhanced lift region-wide along with an uptick in PWATs Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures should climb into the upper 80s which will result in plenty of instability ahead of this upper-level disturbance. More information on this storm system can be found below, including timing of storms.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Tuesday night will be active as storms develop over the Rio Grande Plains as well as the northern Hill Country, then slide south and east into the rest of the region. Locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding is the primary concern, however, strong to severe storms are possible over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains given steep ML lapse rates, moderate instability, and adequate lift. Hail and wind will be the primary concerns as SPC has a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms in this area for Tuesday evening and night. In addition to the threat for severe storms, there is also the threat for locally heavy rainfall that could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. WPC places a level 2 of 4 risk (Slight) for basically all of south central Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning.

Beyond the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, the pattern looks to settle down for a couple days before active conditions return again by the weekend as southwesterly flow ramps up again in response to another upper level trough over the western CONUS.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

We will continue VFR conditions overnight, but did add a mention of some SCT low clouds for all TAF sites after 09Z. Will continue to monitor for the possibility of some brief MVFR cigs around sunrise, with KSAT and KSSF favored over our other TAF sites. Otherwise, earlier and ongoing convection to our north will send an outflow boundary southward into the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. This boundary along with NW flow aloft will likely help develop some afternoon convection. For now, coverage is expected to remain limited, but will monitor model trends for possible TSRA at KAUS this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 90 70 89 70 / 20 10 20 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 70 89 70 / 20 10 20 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 91 69 87 69 / 20 10 30 90 Burnet Muni Airport 86 67 86 67 / 30 10 10 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 73 89 69 / 0 10 40 70 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 68 88 68 / 30 10 10 90 Hondo Muni Airport 89 68 86 68 / 10 0 30 90 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 69 88 69 / 20 10 30 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 89 70 88 71 / 20 10 20 80 San Antonio Intl Airport 90 70 87 69 / 10 10 30 90 Stinson Muni Airport 89 70 88 69 / 10 0 30 90

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.