textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally heavy rainfall possible early this morning across the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Scattered showers and storms elsewhere, especially during the afternoon hours.

- Rain chances continue Saturday but may be impacted by what occurs Friday.

- Warmer temperatures early next week, with some low rain chances mainly along and east of I-35.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Late evening satellite and lightning data shows convection developing over the higher terrain of Mexico well west of the Rio Grande. Incoming hi-res models suggest some of this activity will continue to develop and eventually move into the Rio Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau early this morning. Given plenty of atmospheric moisture, as evidenced by the 1.82" precipitable water value on the 05/00Z sounding at Del Rio, locally heavy rainfall will be a concern. While we have not seen a great deal of consistency among the models regarding the evolution of convection, WPC has rightfully maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall along the Rio Grande through the early morning hours. Any outflow boundaries from the morning convection in conjunction with the arrival of several disturbances and daytime heating should generate scattered convection farther east across the remainder of south central Texas this afternoon and early evening. Again, with plenty of moisture and fairly slow storm movement, a few spots may pick up some locally heavy rainfall.

The active southwest flow aloft remains intact tonight and while we could see some additional chances for showers and storm, suspect the NBM guidance could be a little high on rain chances, especially after Midnight.

Rain chances on Saturday will likely hinge on what takes place on Friday and Friday night. Southwest flow aloft remains firmly in place, but with an upper low over the Permian Basin and south plains region, most of the more organized lift is expected to largely remain to our north. The exception could be across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau where models indicate the upper trough axis will move through during the peak heating hours.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A drying trend is still anticipated for Sunday, with fairly low chances for rain confined to areas along and east of I-35/I-37. Some clearing of clouds is anticipated along the Rio Grande into portions of the Hill Country with partly to mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. We should start to see temperatures warm on Sunday, but are expected to remain near or perhaps just below climatological normals.

The subtropical high will build over Texas through the remainder of the forecast period. This will lead to a mostly dry forecast along with a slow warming trend. We will need to monitor for some afternoon showers and storms developing along the sea breeze, but any rain chances will remain low. Highs will trend upward with 90s for most locations along with overnight lows in the 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Our active pattern continues, leading to lower confidence in thunderstorm timing today through Saturday. For now, confidence has increased in TSRA at AUS, so opted for a TEMPO group this afternoon into early evening to cover the threat. PWATs are up around 2", near the top of the climatological maximum for early June, so rainfall rates will lead to rapid visibility reductions. Opted for 2SM visby's in TEMPO and PROB30 groups today. MVFR ceilings and then IFR ceilings are expected to develop quickly after 05Z tonight at AUS, SAT, and SSF. Meanwhile, at DRT, confidence is low on whether a complex of showers and storms will develop and push east again late this evening. Will go with a PROB30 for -SHRA to cover uncertainty.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 72 87 74 90 / 80 40 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 87 75 89 / 70 40 40 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 71 87 73 89 / 70 30 30 10 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 72 88 / 80 40 50 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 91 75 94 / 50 20 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 73 89 / 80 40 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 71 87 73 89 / 50 20 30 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 87 74 89 / 60 40 40 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 86 75 88 / 70 50 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 72 87 75 89 / 60 20 30 10 Stinson Muni Airport 72 88 75 90 / 50 20 20 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.