textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will spread across South-Central Texas tonight as a strong Arctic front sweeps across the area. Locally heavy rain is possible tonight into Saturday morning before the cold rain begins transitioning into freezing rain.

- Significant travel impacts are likely beginning Saturday as freezing rain spreads across the area north to south. Icy weather continues into Sunday morning, but travel impacts could linger into Monday and Tuesday on residual icy roads.

- Dangerous cold is forecast across South-Central Texas beginning Saturday night. Wind chills as low as 5 below zero may cause hypothermia and frostbite if precautions are not taken.

- A long-duration freeze is forecast for portions of the Hill Country and Austin metro through at least Monday morning.

- Preparations for icy weather and dangerous cold should be completed today!

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The ingredients for a busy weekend of weather are coming into place. To the north, the Arctic front was beginning to push across the I-20 corridor as of early afternoon Friday. To the west, the upper-level disturbance off Baja California continues to move slowly east, marshaling a deep plume of moisture from the Pacific into Texas. The weather balloon launched from Del Rio this morning showed a much more saturated atmosphere with a precipitable water value of 1.18 inches, signaling unusually moist air for this time of year (over the 90th percentile). The moisture has arrived along with scattered rains, and much colder temperatures are on the way.

Coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms will increase Friday evening as an increasing amount of moisture and lift continues to pile up over the approaching front, resulting in numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. High-resolution models depict batches of storms traversing west to east across much of the area. While narrower warm cloud heights and marginal instability limits rain rates, ample moisture and large coverage of rains may support higher cumulative rain amounts. Rainfall totals before the cold air arrives Saturday morning are expected to range from about 0.5 to 1.5 inches on average. A few localized spots could see 2-3 inches of liquid rain through Saturday morning, with greater chances over the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and western I-35 corridor. This may lead to some ponding of water over roadways heading into Saturday morning.

The Arctic front will move south to north across South-Central Texas tonight, with cold temperatures spreading across the region through the day Saturday. Breezy north winds will follow the front, with 10- 20 mph sustained winds gusting to 30 mph especially over the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains. These winds are expected to persist through Sunday, continuing across the wintry weather.

Cold, freezing temperatures are expected to spread across much of the region a few hours after the leading edge of the front arrives. The combination of frigid cold air arriving Saturday and moisture overhead leads to multiple hazards this weekend. These are discussed below.

FREEZING RAIN / WINTRY PRECIPITATION

A predominantly freezing rain event is expected to develop across much of South-Central Texas Saturday into Sunday. Most likely ice accretion amounts range from 1/10 to 1/4 inches across the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains, with isolated totals between 1/4 and 1/2 inches in the Hill Country. These totals suggest likely hazardous driving conditions and significant travel impacts. A Winter Storm Warning was recently issued for portions of the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor that were outside of the previous Winter Storm Warning area, including San Antonio. Confidence was increased in these areas receiving sufficient ice accumulations to warrant warning issuance. For these areas, expected onset of freezing rain is forecast mainly after 6 PM CST Saturday evening. For the southern Edwards Plateau, Hill Country, and Austin area, the previous Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 6 AM CST Saturday morning through 12 PM CST Sunday.

Liquid rain showers will be ongoing across most of South-Central Texas before sunrise Saturday morning. However, we expect that freezing temperatures will begin entering the Hill Country by about 6 AM Saturday morning, expanding south and eastward to I-35 corridor and Austin area late morning to afternoon, the I-10/US-90 corridor Saturday evening around sunset, and then across the remainder of the Coastal Plains and Rio Grande Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. As the freezing line pushes south, we anticipate a north-to- south transition from liquid rain to freezing rain. Note that standing water from preceding rains may also freeze over and increase the amount of ice accretion on mainly flat surfaces. We expect temperatures to decrease throughout the day, so they should remain below freezing once the transition to freezing rain occurs.

Scattered light showers are expected throughout Saturday afternoon and evening, producing freezing rain where temperatures are below freezing. While rain rates do appear to be lower during this period with lulls in the freezing rain possible, ice can accumulate efficiently in light freezing rain. Portions of the Hill Country are forecast to see more than 1/10 inches of ice accretion before 6 PM CST Saturday. Heading into Sunday night, the disturbance currently over the Pacific begins to move across northern Mexico and across Texas. This is forecast to lead to an increase in precipitation intensity with bands of freezing rain and sleet pushing west to east across South-Central Texas with further ice accumulations expected. Coverage of icy precipitation is expected to reach its greatest extent Saturday night into Sunday morning. Model soundings during this period continue to suggest that freezing rain will be the predominant form of precipitation for most areas, though in stronger bands and in areas farther north there may be sufficient rising air and cooling aloft to mix in sleet. By noon Sunday, drier air in the wake of the passing disturbance will begin to spread across the region, bringing an end to precipitation. Sunny skies in this drier period may help to melt some ice accumulations. However, temperatures especially north of I-10 are forecast to remain below freezing Sunday and potentially Monday as well. This may prolong hazardous driving conditions on less traveled roads and in shaded areas into Tuesday morning, long after the precipitation has ended.

HAZARDOUS COLD

Bitterly and dangerously cold Arctic air is forecast to spread across South-Central Texas this weekend with a steady north wind. As the Arctic air settles across the region, a long-duration freeze is possible especially north of I-10. A few areas may remain below freezing until Tuesday afternoon. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all of South-Central Texas beginning 6 PM CST Saturday to 12 PM CST Monday. As we continue to evaluate the forecast, this warning may be extended to Tuesday for some areas.

Air temperatures Saturday night are forecast to plunge into the teens and 20s over most of South-Central Texas, but wind chills will dive into the single digits mainly north of the I-10/US-90 corridor. Localized spots in the Hill Country could see wind chills near 0 early Sunday morning. Highs Sunday remain below freezing in the 20s to low 30s north of I-10. The most frigid temperatures of this cold air outbreak are forecast Sunday night into Monday morning under clearer skies. Lows are forecast to be in the teens across most of South-Central Texas with portions of the Hill Country registering air temperatures in the single digits. The coldest wind chills are forecast to drop as low as about 5 below zero in the Hill Country with values in the single digits to around 15 elsewhere. These forecast conditions are projected be the chilliest weather experienced in our area in several years. Model trends for temperatures Monday and Tuesday have decreased across recent ensembles, so there is potential for hazardous cold extending through Tuesday morning. As mentioned earlier, this could warrant an extension of the Extreme Cold Warning should confidence increase.

With hazardous travel conditions commencing Saturday, preparations for hazardous cold and a prolonged freeze should finish up today. Remember to protect the four P's: People, Pets, Plants, and Pipes.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 235 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The surface high will be to our east on Tuesday allowing for weak southerly flow to return at the surface. Skies will be partly cloudy and highs will be able to recover into the 40s to lower 50s with the warmer temperatures expected to be in the southwestern CWA. Light winds should allow for another freeze Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for most of the area. Temperatures will be slightly warmer on Wednesday with another possible freeze by Thursday morning.

The synoptic pattern will begin to shift by the end of the period as a weak front may impact the area Thursday before a possible stronger front on Friday. This front Friday has some potential to bring additional sub-freezing air back to South-Central Texas. Both the operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF show an upper trough moving into the area after the cold air arrives which could bring additional precipitation to the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Depending on the thermodynamic profile, there is some risk for additional wintry precipitation with this system. However, confidence remains low as any shifts in timing to cold air or trough arrival would lead to changes in precip and cold air timing. Will keep the forecast all rain for now, and will reassess over the next several days. Regardless, an extended period of below normal temperature looks to continue through next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Rain showers are expected to continue through the bulk of the next 24 to 30 hours before a transition to -FZRA begins after 00Z Saturday evening. Ceilings are VFR right now at SAT, but should rapidly fall to IFR after 01Z this evening and remain IFR to even LIFR through the remainder of the forecast period. Confidence is growing in -FZRA as HREF and NBM guidance gives probabilities of at least some -FZRA at AUS by 00Z and even some 20-30% probs before then. Will work with a PROB30 group followed by prevailing FZRA at AUS after 00Z Saturday evening. At SAT, arrival of colder air should be a bit slower and confidence in arrival time of freezing temperatures at SAT and SSF is rather low at this time. Will opt to keep mention of FZRA out of SSF for now, but introduce a PROB30 at SAT. Precip should remain all liquid through the period at DRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 34 36 22 33 / 100 90 100 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 33 37 21 32 / 100 90 100 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 37 40 24 35 / 90 90 100 20 Burnet Muni Airport 29 31 18 28 / 100 80 100 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 40 43 27 42 / 90 70 80 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 30 32 17 29 / 100 90 100 20 Hondo Muni Airport 38 43 22 37 / 100 80 90 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 36 39 22 34 / 90 90 100 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 39 43 25 33 / 90 90 100 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 39 42 24 36 / 90 80 90 20 Stinson Muni Airport 42 45 27 38 / 90 80 90 20

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for TXZ171>173-183>194-206-208-209.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Monday for TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Saturday to noon CST Sunday for TXZ205-207-220>225.