textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through the work week followed by a cooler weekend into next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday into Thursday over western counties; then near critical to critical fire weather conditions will be possible over much of the area due to a pair of dry cold fronts late Friday night into Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A well mixed day of near full sunshine is helping to maximize wind gusts potential with areas of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor reporting gusts to 30 mph. Late morning mixing of southwest winds from above the boundary layer helped hasten the removal of low clouds and has lead to about a 1 to 3 degree bump in some max temps for today with nearly all areas expected to reach 80 degrees or warmer. A vigorous shortwave disturbance moving NE across the Central Plains has funneled these elevated low level winds east from West TX. This pattern should soften up as the shortwave continues to pull away NE by this evening. Winds tonight should revert back to more SSE winds and in increase in low clouds, but a better defined dry-line will take shape over the Edwards Plateau late tonight. Another not as strong shortwave pushes east across the TX Panhandle into OK late tonight, and this impact will push more west winds into our forecast area in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Lighter winds are expected, but there could be some locally elevated fire weather conditions as the dry-line pushes well into the Hill Country Wednesday afternoon. The dry- line should retreat again with more mostly cloudy conditions for most areas late Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Yet another shortwave push across the high plains brings the dry- line back east Thursday. Again these daytime winds should not be as breezy as those of today. Once again a mostly sunny and warm day could come with some locally elevated fire weather conditions.

Finally late Friday night, a strong shortwave moves into the TX/OK Panhandles and brings a Pacific front that surges through all our eastern counties and brings widespread breezy and dry conditions. Fuel moisture obs and projections from the TFS could determine if this front comes in as just elevated to near critical or be more impactful for Saturday. A slight slowing trend noted in the Pacific front timing could mean fewer areas impacted late Friday. Looking at the ensemble handling of the post-polar front air for the weekend, there is a slight trend for a colder Saturday night. However, this pattern aloft will be followed by progressive ridging aloft, so the cooling period will be limited to a couple days of just near normal temperatures into Monday. A gentle broadening of the upper ridge pattern into the middle of next week suggests continued dry weather and a return to warmer than normal temps.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 VFR flight conditions featuring gusty south winds under a mostly clear sky will be expected from this afternoon into this evening. Gusts will be as high of around 25 kt. The winds will gradually diminish into and through the overnight with low clouds also returning. Like yesterday, guidance favors MVFR to IFR stratus compared to fog. However, some minor visibility restrictions are possible. Conditions improve to VFR levels by Wednesday afternoon with continued southerly winds but with speeds not as breezy as this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 61 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 60 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 59 80 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 58 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 57 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 60 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 56 81 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 60 81 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 62 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 60 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.