textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms during the rest of today to focus primarily along and to the west of the I-10/I-37 corridor.

- Low rain chances (15-25%) across portions of the region Sunday into Tuesday.

- Above average temperatures continue.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A cluster of showers with the occasional storm occurred for this morning in a corridor mainly concentrated from Rockport/Corpus Christi into portions of Bexar County. This is associated with a region of higher moisture, with PWATs that exceed 2 inches. This afternoon should see this region of higher moisture continue to slide west with isolated to widely scattered showers and storm activity primarily focusing along and west of the I-10/I-37 corridor. The activity fades and dissipates into and through the evening hours. Drier air follows quickly on the heels of that corridor of higher moisture as seen on the water vapor satellite imagery across Louisiana into northeast Texas. PWATs across that area has fallen to near 1 inch or less. The leading edge of the drier air reaches our northern/northeastern most portions of our region later this afternoon into this evening. This dry air is expected to continue to push farther into the region and remain settled across South-Central Texas for Saturday through Saturday night, yielding to a dry forecast.

Mid-level ridging remaining centered across Northeast Texas will keep the temperature forecast persistent with continued above average temperatures. Afternoon highs will remain in the mid to upper 90s for the majority, outside from the cooler Hill Country terrain and the lucky few that may see some slight relief with today's rain. Conditions stay warm at night with morning low temperatures mostly in the low to mid 70s. Cloud cover should be slightly greater in areal coverage from today into tonight in comparison to Saturday into Saturday night. South-southeasterly breezes generally prevail with higher gusts at times from the afternoon through the evening.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Late this weekend and early next week, the mid-level ridging is forecast to weaken/buckle on it's western flank with some bits of shortwave energy (vorticity) advancing through portions of West Texas and the Texas panhandle. This along with just enough of sufficient area moisture may help generate small (10-20%) chances for rain, primarily focused in the Hill Country/Southern Edwards Plateau to areas along the Rio Grande. Guidance then shows the ridging will once again strengthen across the region from mid to late week, which likely is to help to suppress the rain chances across the region through that time frame.

Despite slightly weaker 500 mb heights on Sunday into early next week, area temperatures don't look to budge much and stay above average. Afternoon highs are to persistently hold in the mid to upper 90s for most while a few locations occasionally reach up towards the triple digit mark. Heat indices are to run around or slightly above the ambient temperature, but peak values should remain shy of the heat advisory criteria with enough sufficient mixing each afternoon. The overnights are to remain persistently warm as well, with most locations seeing the morning lows hold within the low to mid 70s. The Hill Country may be the slight exception where a few more upper 60 readings look to trickle in through mid to late next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Isolated to scattered convection continues from the coastal plains into portions of the I-35 corridor near KSAT and KSSF early this afternoon. Based on radar trends, we have added a TEMPO group to both KSAT and KSSF for SHRA over the next couple hours. Models then show the better chance for convection slowly moving westward into the Rio Grande plains through early evening. Low cloud development overnight into Saturday morning is favored between SAT/SSF and DRT, so we will keep MVFR cigs in the forecast for these sites, with only a mention of SCT low clouds at AUS. Drier air moving in on Saturday will likely prevent convection from developing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 74 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 98 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 73 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 98 78 99 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 96 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 73 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 76 97 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.