textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures through the next week.

- Showers and thunderstorms to impact most of the area Saturday with a level 1 of 5 risk for severe weather.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Upper ridging resides over South Central Texas through tomorrow morning, then shifts east Friday afternoon as a mid-level trough digs over the southwestern US. Low level moisture continues to build over the area today keeping at least some cloudiness over the region with warm highs from the upper 70s to low 80s. Low clouds return tonight keeping lows in the mid 50s to low 60s. A mix of low and high level clouds will leave mostly cloudy conditions for Friday with seasonably warm highs and breezy southeasterly wind at times.

An upper level disturbance ahead of the main trough may bring showers or isolated thunderstorms to our far northwestern counties as early as Friday night. Strong deep layer shear in combination with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg may generate storms on the nose of a low level jet in the west, with current hi-res guidance suggesting an isolated storm or two over Val Verde county tomorrow evening though most activity is still expected further north or west of our area during this time. Overnight into Saturday morning, expect streamer showers or patchy drizzle ahead of the main trough and associated cold front.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1136 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Recent guidance has slowed the arrival of the cold front Saturday which will be slightly more favorable for a marginal severe thunderstorm risk as this front moves across the area through the day. SPC highlights a level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms generally for the Hill Country and areas east with the best timeframe in the afternoon when better instability builds back over the area. Storms may develop as a broken line ahead of the cold front moving west to east and exiting the area sometime Saturday evening. As for rainfall, the deeper depicted trough brings back slightly higher probabilities for at least a half inch of rainfall in our northeastern areas. Overall though, totals still look generally meager with the potential for our southwestern counties to miss out on rain completely with this storm system.

Drier air and breezy west to northwest wind is expected behind the front Saturday bringing clearing skies from west to east. For Sunday, breezy northerly wind is expected much of the day before the trough moves further east away from the area and ridging settles back over us. Only a few degree drop in highs is expected Sunday with a warming trend into next week. Forecast highs for the middle of next week are back in the 80s across all of South Central Texas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Southerly flow will bring moisture and low clouds across much of South Central Texas tonight. Model outputs and statistical aids indicate this will produce a swath of MVFR to LIFR CIGs moving south to north after 08Z. Area with highest probability of LIFR CIGs continues to be KSAT/KSSF and vicinity based on HREF and REFS ensemble models, primarily around 12Z-16Z with 60% likelihood. TEMPO groups are maintained for LIFR, but may introduce prevailing LIFR later tonight if coastal observations support the low CIGs. Reduced VSBYs are also possible with the lowest CIGs, but confidence is low. A smaller fraction of models suggest a brief window of LIFR is also possible at KAUS, but with lower confidence. The western MVFR edge of the clouds should reach KDRT around 13Z. Ceilings should begin improving 17Z-21Z at all terminals cloud cover breaks. Breezier southeast flow at 10-15 knots is expected Friday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 60 80 63 75 / 0 0 50 90 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 50 90 New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 80 62 76 / 0 0 50 90 Burnet Muni Airport 58 78 62 73 / 0 0 50 90 Del Rio Intl Airport 60 80 63 82 / 0 0 40 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 59 79 62 74 / 0 0 40 90 Hondo Muni Airport 56 81 60 80 / 0 0 30 60 San Marcos Muni Airport 59 81 62 76 / 0 0 50 90 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 81 63 76 / 0 0 40 100 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 80 63 77 / 0 0 50 70 Stinson Muni Airport 60 81 64 78 / 0 0 40 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.