textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Mild to warm conditions continue through the week.

- Periodic rain chances return early in the week with highest (30-75%) chances Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Monday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A sharp trough/ridge couplet sits over TX with a SSW/NNE oriented ridge controlling the weather over eastern and southern portions and the destabilizing upper trough bringing monsoonal convection to the western and northern portions of the state. These systems are expected to eventually shift slowly east, but almost no progress will be noticeable in the short term over our forecast area. One change that will be noticeable will come from a plume of high cloudiness connected to Hurricane Vance which has been taking on increased shear in the eastern Pacific. At this time, we do not see any benefit to the Pwat values from the Gulf or Vance as a drying low level wind flow over the northern Gulf continues to feed dry low level into Central TX while the small amount of moisture pooling coming from Deep South TX is funneled NW up the Rio Grande Valley and into West TX. Through Monday, only an isolated stray shower or two out over our western counties is foreseeable. Temperatures will trend slightly cooler today over Saturday, and the Monday morning low could also trend cooler with that dry easterly low level wind flow lowering our dew points. Models continue to suggest a mostly cloudy pattern into Monday, so look for somewhat pleasant daytime temperatures maxing out in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The upper low embedded in the broader western CONUS upper trough will begin to eject NE toward the central plains states Monday while dragging across NW TX only a small piece of shortwave energy. Monday night into Tuesday. Height fields over the eastern Pacific will remain deflated with a weaker but still unstable SW flow pattern aloft left over W TX Tuesday. A pooling of Gulf moisture begins to move onshore by this time as low level winds become less easterly, but the amount of inland progress models show the moisture flux making looks to be little too late to connect up with the passing shortwave to the NW. What that has left us is a fairly dry/more stable pattern over the Hill Country & Central TX with a more moist and/or unstable set up for Coastal Prairies and part of the Rio Grande Plains for Tuesday. The Edwards Plateau will see its better rain chances early Tuesday from the shortwave, but will probably go stable in the afternoon before the deeper moisture can arrive. All that said there could be a good chance (40-60%) for some rain over the Coastal Prairies/Rio Grande Plains areas situated south of San Antonio metro.

While much attention was spent discussing somewhat uninspiring rain chances for Tuesday, the best chances for rain in the next 7 days are forecast for Thursday and Friday after a fairly low coverage afternoon Wednesday. Wednesday into Wednesday night the tilted ridge over TX continues to flatten eastward leaving a deep 700 mb to tropopause pattern of SW flow to connect the rest of TX with some of that tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific. There will be considerable uncertainty with what happens with Vance but the general expectation is for slow movement and a gradual weakening by early next week. Most of the latest runs, including the AI runs, hold the system together and well off the coast of Mexico to be capable of feeding TX a portion of its energy/moisture as it encounters that SW shear aloft. While our pattern shows no indications of a surface feature to greatly enhance rain chances, the rise in PWat values to potentially over 1.8 inches over South TX could lead to a variety of rain chances, some connected with instability passing through in the NW flow aloft and others moving inland as feeder showers and storms. Our current forecast highlights western counties with the best chances at 50-75%, mainly 25-50% over the I-35 corridor and Coastal Prairies for both of these days. Confidence of this pattern holding together lowers significantly after Friday.

Temperatures remain warm and steady through next week with daytime highs mostly ranging from the mid 70s to the mid 80s. Pending how thick cloud cover and how much rain coverage becomes, a day or two may trend a little lower. Overnights remain mild and a bit humid with lows ranging mostly from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist for the I-35 corridor at least through the overnight hours. For KDRT, MVFR cigs stay for a couple of hours and then back to VFR mid morning. MVFR cigs are forecast to return to KDRT overnight into Monday morning around 11Z. An east to southeast wind flow of around 10 knots to prevail across the local terminals through the period. Gusts to be strongest along the Rio Grande which includes KDRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 58 83 63 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 56 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 57 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 79 56 79 62 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 65 81 65 / 10 10 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 55 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 82 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 84 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 57 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 59 82 64 / 0 0 0 20 Stinson Muni Airport 83 61 83 66 / 0 0 0 30

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.