textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures for the next week

- Low to medium chances for rain this afternoon through Wednesday, medium chances Friday afternoon through Saturday

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1240 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Moist southerly lower level flow leads to low clouds and patchy to areas of fog this morning. There is finally agreement on timing of the upper level low now moving over the Gulf of California into Sonora state of Mexico. The consensus is for a tonight passage as an open trough. Forcing initiates showers over the Edwards Plateau by this afternoon, then the showers move from west to east over our area tonight. Minimal instability could make for a few lightning strikes tonight. A cold front moves across early Wednesday to provide forcing for showers along and east of I-35 in the morning, then near the Coastal Plains in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts of less than 1/4 inch are expected. Due to extensive cloudiness, temperatures cool off from the last few days. However, even in wake of the frontal passage no significant cold advection is expected. Temperatures continue to be above average.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1240 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

An upper level ridge transits our area on Thursday into Friday for dry conditions and well above average temperatures. The current upper level trough off the west coast and a cold front move across our area late Friday into Saturday. However, there remains about a 12 hour difference in system passage between the fastest and slowest models/ensembles. These features bring higher chances of showers due to greater thermodynamics. Moderate instability, mid level lapse rates, and shear should allow for at least isolated thunderstorms. Greater forcing of well above seasonal PWs may allow for rainfall amounts up to 1 inch. With the front having a Pacific nature, temperatures remain above average on Saturday, then upper level ridging resumes Sunday into next week maintaining them.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

MVFR conditions are likely to continue across KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF for the next several hours. There is a low chance for IFR for KAUS and KSAT within the next few hours. Cigs lift to VFR conditions by 17Z and stay that way until late tonight. For KDRT, MVFR cigs are forecast to take shape around 14Z for a two hour period or so. VFR conditions then take over KDRT for the rest of the afternoon and evening. Southerly winds around 8 to 12 knots to prevail with gusts of 15 to 20 knots especially for KAUS during the afternoon. MVFR cigs return late tonight across the local area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 57 74 55 / 10 40 20 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 56 74 55 / 10 40 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 56 74 55 / 10 30 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 53 70 53 / 20 30 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 54 77 57 / 40 30 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 54 74 55 / 10 30 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 74 54 76 55 / 20 30 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 56 75 55 / 10 30 30 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 59 76 56 / 0 30 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 58 74 57 / 10 30 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 76 59 76 58 / 10 30 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.