textproduct: Austin/San Antonio
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
- Low to medium (15-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Labor Day
- Daily sea breeze thunderstorm chances in the Coastal Plains through much of next week
- Humid conditions with above average temperatures will continue
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
Upper air analysis this morning shows a large amplitude ridge over the Great Plains. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a weak disturbance over the western Gulf generating isolated to scattered convection in the Texas Coastal Plains. The mid to upper ridge will shift to the east through the short term period, but still dominate over Texas. The disturbance over the Gulf will drift slowly to the west moving inland over Texas. As this feature moves over our CWA it will generate isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day Sunday. Given the hot airmass in place, some storms could produce strong, gusty winds, but not severe strength. Convection will be diurnally driven and should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. Temperatures will be above normal and about the same as they have been for the last few days.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
There will another chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms Monday as the weak disturbance dissipates over Central Texas. The strong upper ridge will break down over the northern part of the country, but continue to control the weather over the southern states. Southeasterly low level flow will keep hot, moist air over South-Central Texas. There may be some seabreeze convection each day Tuesday through Thursday over the Coastal Plains, but chances are low. Most of the area will be hot and dry. Temperatures will be steady and above normal through the week.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026
The forecast remains on track this evening. Opted to continue with MVFR ceilings developing at SAT and SSF despite not showing up in LAMP guidance. With high PWATs moving in and increasing low level moisture, MVFR stratus wouldn't be surprising at all if it were to form shortly before or after sunrise Sunday. Winds will remain tame, less than 10 kts for the most part, along with VFR ceilings by 16Z. PROB30 for showers has been kept in place for Sunday morning through the afternoon hours.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 76 97 76 99 / 10 30 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 97 76 98 / 10 30 10 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 75 97 75 98 / 10 30 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 74 94 74 95 / 10 30 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 75 97 75 97 / 10 20 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 96 76 98 / 10 30 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 96 73 97 / 0 30 20 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 75 97 75 98 / 10 30 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 96 76 97 / 10 40 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 97 77 97 / 0 30 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 77 98 77 99 / 0 30 20 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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