textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- There is a potential for life threatening flooding across parts of South Central Texas this evening through Thursday evening

- Flood Watch remains in effect for a good portion of South Central Texas through Thursday evening - Stay weather aware and check for updates as we go through this wet and significant rain pattern

- Dry weather returns for the upcoming weekend

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Numerous Flood Advisories and Warnings are currently ongoing across the area this evening. Expect this trend to continue overnight as we remain in an extremely moist airmass. Recent Upper air analysis shows a strong ridge over most of the western half of the country with a closed high over the northern plains into the upper midwest. The 500mb flow over Texas however is from the west while the low level flow continues to be from the southeast across South-Central Texas. With the upper ridge over the northern plains, a trough is now located over our area helping to ignite and fuel convection over the area.

Rain chances will continue overnight and only increase during the afternoon with PW values already exceeding over two inches over most of the area. Along with these high values, weak wind shear will lead to slow moving and erratic storm motion that could eventually lead to training storms. This will continue to lead to increasing chances for locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding to continue into Wednesday. Rainfall totals for the short term period will range from a widespread 2-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible upwards of 10 to 15 inches somewhere in the watch area particularly over the Rio Grande Plains, southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country. This is likely to be a multi rainfall event with several rounds of heavy rainfall during the short term period and continuing into the Thursday time frame. A Flood Watch remains in effect until 7pm Thursday evening. There is a potential for life threatening flooding somewhere in the watch area and we urge residents and visitors of South Central Texas to stay weather aware and check on weather updates.

That being said, WPC has included most of our CWA in the Level 2 of 4 (Slight) risk for excessive rainfall for our entire area with a level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for the southern Edwards Plateau into Bexar County(including the San Antonio metro) and parts of the western Hill Country for Today. Many of the same areas are in a level 3 of 4 (Moderate) risk for excessive rainfall again for Wednesday and continuing into Thursday.

Temperatures will be several degrees below normal through the period due to the extensive cloud cover and rain cooled areas. Today's and Wednesday's highs will be cooler with most of the CWA not reaching 90 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 126 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Our wet pattern continues into Thursday with the mid to upper level disturbance over west Texas staying put, in addition, pulses of energy will be coming in from the southwest flow aloft. PW will remain unusually high, however locally heavy rain will continue to remain possible. WPC keeps the western half of our area (Rio Grande Plains and southern Edwards Plateau) in a level 2 of 4 (slight) risk for excessive rainfall with a level 1 of 4(marginal) risk across the western Hill Country and parts of Bexar county. Depending on how this activity evolves will determine if we continue to see elevated flooding potential continuing into the first half of Friday.

By late week the upper pattern should start to readjust, however we will likely still be somewhat unstable and low rain chances will continue at least out in our western areas until Friday. The weekend looks to be drier at this point. With all of the cloudiness and rain, high temperatures will continue to remain cooler with highs not reaching 90 over most of the area and staying below normal through Friday. We should see temperatures moderate as we get to Saturday with the return of 90s and more seasonable temps expected into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Convective trends are filling in over the I-35 sites and have made adjustments to go with TEMPO TSRA for the next few hours. Cigs have also been lowered into IFR with TSRA. We will keep the PROB30 groups along I-35 for the possibility of another round of afternoon storms as daytime heating helps destabilize the atmosphere. Out west at DRT, we have made some minor adjustments to delay the onset of TSRA, but radar trends and models still show good chances for convection here as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 85 73 85 72 / 90 40 70 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 73 85 72 / 90 40 80 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 73 84 72 / 80 40 80 70 Burnet Muni Airport 83 71 84 70 / 90 40 70 60 Del Rio Intl Airport 84 71 84 71 / 90 70 80 90 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 71 86 71 / 90 40 70 50 Hondo Muni Airport 84 72 82 70 / 90 60 80 80 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 73 84 72 / 80 40 80 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 84 74 85 74 / 90 20 60 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 74 83 73 / 80 50 80 70 Stinson Muni Airport 86 74 84 73 / 80 40 80 70

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ171>173-183>192- 202>206-217>219-228.