textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM today from the Hill Country into the western counties. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for the remainder of the region.

- Above average temperatures continue into next week with no rain forecast through Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances (20 to 40%) for rain and storms enter the forecast through the middle of next week from Wednesday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A very warm February night prevails with morning lows mainly in the mid 50s to low 60s. The winds overnight will remain lighter as the low-level jet above the surface is now weaker and the surface inversion is stronger and more in-tact in comparison to 24 hours ago. Enough shallow low-level moisture exists to where a region of low clouds could develop into the early morning for locations along and east of the I-35 corridor. Otherwise, high clouds continue to pass through the region.

A dry front enters the Hill Country by mid-morning and gradually is expected to push across the I-35 corridor by around midday and our far east and southeastern regions through early to mid-afternoon. Temperatures will quickly warm today, especially in advance of and immediately along the frontal boundary, with aid from compressional heating. Highs will reach the 90s for many, especially across the San Antonio metro area and locations west to southwest of there to the Rio Grande. Highs may even reach 100 degrees across Dimmit or southern Maverick counties. Northerly post-frontal winds pick up in speed as well, especially along and to the north/west of the I-35 corridor. Sustained winds in the 15 to 25 mph range are possible with gusts to 30 mph. Elected to lean the wind forecast closer to the RAP and HRRR, which are persistent with showing higher speeds than other models. These winds coupled with the dry air in the wake of the front will result in our greatest weather concern, which is near critical to critical fire weather conditions. For additional details, including the latest details on the Red Flag Warning, please refer to the fire weather discussion below.

The north winds will subside tonight and become shift more towards the east on Friday at around 10 mph or less. Temperatures are not quite as warm into and through Friday but are to remain solidly above average. Outside from a possible region of low clouds across our far southeastern most counties on Friday morning, anticipate mostly clear skies.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The mid-level pattern aloft remains tame with a continued dry northwesterly flow through the weekend and into the start of next week. Otherwise, a southerly surface and low-level flow returns as soon as Friday night and gradually pick up to light to moderate breezes through each afternoon with some occasional gustiness. Shallow low-level moisture will gradually return with these southerly winds. Otherwise, expected afternoon and nighttime temperatures to remain above to well above average.

Signals within the ensembles continue to point toward a possible weather pattern change during the middle of next week, especially towards Wednesday into Thursday with the approach of upper level energy from the west. This coupled with the moist southerly flow across the low-levels result in a return of low to medium (20 to 40%) rain and storm chances to the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Little to no change to the going forecast as things remain on track. Shifted winds to a bit more northerly than northeasterly this afternoon, but otherwise, everything else remains the same through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Breezy post-frontal northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts to around 30 mph and minimum humidity ranging from near 10 percent along the Rio Grande to around 20 to 25 percent across majority of the Hill Country to near or just west of the I-35 corridor, coupled with the dry fuels, result in critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect in these locations between 11 AM and 7 PM. Elsewhere, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected with only some slightly higher humidity levels and weaker winds. A Fire Danger statement will be issued across these locations. While the dry conditions and above average temperatures persist, lighter winds establish into Friday while the return of light to moderate but occasionally gusty southerly winds this weekend should help to increase the humidity levels slightly each subsequent day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 88 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 58 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 84 54 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 58 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 55 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 94 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 59 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 91 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 92 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ171-172-183>190-202>204-217>219-228.