textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Mild to warm conditions prevail this weekend into next week.

- Low (15-30%) rain chances late Monday through Tuesday.

- Details still to be ironed out but increasing rain chances entering Halloween weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Mid-level ridging remains centered across the region today before slowly crawling eastward into and through the weekend. This will allow for returning southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough across the Desert Southwest. Additionally, we'll see returning southeasterly low-level and surface flow beginning late today with speeds becoming slightly breezier Saturday in comparison to the levels this afternoon. The return and uptick of this flow will gradually start to advect some slightly better low-level moisture across the region. This should result in a milder night entering into Saturday morning with a more humid feel to the air and the return of some early morning cloudiness across the region. Couple short term model guidance members indicate that a few isolated streamer showers may be possible Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon near and south-southest of the San Antonio region. Otherwise, conditions should remain rain free. Daytime temperatures remain warm in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The main trough axis located across the Desert Southwest remains forecast to eject well to the northeast early week but trailing shortwave energy would still enter our region from late Monday through Tuesday. The medium range guidance has continued to back away from any semblance of a cold front approaching the region through early week. However, the shortwave does allow for the arrival of some moisture aloft and this looks to perhaps combine with the low level moisture with the onshore flow to squeeze out some light rain chances (15-30%) from late Monday night into Tuesday. Rain chances look to mainly decline from Wednesday into early Thursday but a couple of spotty showers into the Coastal Plains may still remain possible. Expect mild temperatures along with humid conditions to continue with the southeasterly flow.

There is considerable spread in the guidance near the end of the forecast period and towards the start of the Halloween weekend. However, there remains some signal within the ensembles and periodically individually from the deterministic/AI guidance for increasing rain potential with connections from off the Eastern Pacific in association with Tropical Storm Vance.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR flight conditions are forecast for the I-35 corridor sites as few to sct high clouds move across the local area. For KDRT, low clouds are forecast to be present for several hours this morning before lifting. Otherwise, conditions then return to VFR levels under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies for the rest of today. Winds, especially across the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) are forecast to stay light and variable through mid morning. Winds then pickup during the day from the east-southeast but of 10 kts or less. Winds trend slightly stronger towards the Rio Grande, and KDRT, where gusts could peak around or slightly stronger than 20 kts for this afternoon out of the southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 61 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 57 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 83 59 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 66 84 67 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 86 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 87 61 85 64 / 0 0 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 59 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 62 85 63 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 87 62 87 65 / 0 0 10 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.