textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front expected to bring much cooler air Friday and Saturday.

- Rapid return to unseasonably warm and dry weather Monday and Tuesday.

- Hopes for meaningful rain may return to South Central Texas by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The latest short term guidance continues to showcase a faster and much stronger front than global guidance has had previously up to this point, particularly over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards Plateau. The latest timing indicates the front will enter the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau between 17-18Z and make it to the I-35 Corridor by 23-00Z. This should result in a rather stark temperature contrast from west to east Friday, with highs in 60s west, and the mid to upper 80s east. Gusty winds will develop along and behind this front into the 30 to 35 mph range, but shouldn't be outrageously strong like they've been with some of our more recent frontal passages. Some showers are possible in the wake of the front early Saturday before things dry out in the afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday will likely struggle to get out of 60s west, but remain in the 70s to lower 80s east.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Near-normal temperatures return for Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s. Warmer and dry weather continues Monday and Tuesday, but by midweek, things may finally get interesting as a mid- level shortwave swings through north Texas on Wednesday. This may spark showers and storms along another front, but this time it won't be as tight a gradient. Beyond Wednesday, an active pattern may return for the second week of April, but for now, we will at least hope for something out of Wednesday's storm system.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low clouds featuring MVFR ceilings have developed across the Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains. These low clouds could approach the Rio Grande after sunrise where brief MVFR ceilings could develop at KDRT. VFR flight conditions return from late morning into the afternoon as the low clouds mix out. A strong cold front then arrives from the afternoon into the evening. This will shift and increase the winds from out of the north, with peak gusts around 35 kt through the night. Southerly to variable winds are expected ahead of the front of around 5 to 10 kt. Behind the front, low clouds will return with MVFR ceilings settling in across the region, earliest at KAUS. Haven't added any mention in this TAF package but some light sprinkles or rain showers could establish from the overnight into early Saturday morning for locations mainly north and west of the I-35 corridor.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Despite the passage of a strong cold front this afternoon into this evening consisting of breezy post-frontal north winds with gusts up to 35 mph, the cloud cover and cooler temperatures immediately arriving in the wake of this boundary will actually act to keep RH values more elevated, limiting the fire weather risk this afternoon and evening. To the south of the boundary where the humidity will be lowest in the 25 to 35 percent range will feature lighter pre-frontal southerly winds of 10 mph or less. Beyond Saturday, as the temperatures warm, expect some moderate to locally elevated fire weather conditions to be possible at times with minimum RH as low as the 25 to 35% range and light to moderate winds returning out of the south.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 87 54 67 54 / 0 20 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 55 68 54 / 0 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 88 56 72 54 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 77 50 61 52 / 10 20 20 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 54 68 58 / 10 30 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 53 63 54 / 10 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 86 55 71 56 / 0 10 10 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 55 72 55 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 88 58 73 54 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 86 56 70 57 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 88 58 74 58 / 0 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.