textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid weather this weekend into early next week with heat indices near or exceeding 100F.

- Low chances (10-20 percent) for isolated severe storms late Friday afternoon and evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A pattern of overcast skies each morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon is seen in the short term forecast. Low level southerly flow will keep a warm and humid airmass in place today with highs creeping back up into the 80s and low 90s over South Central Texas. Mid-level ridging will keep rain chances out of the forecast today, though we'll have to keep an eye on any storms that do manage to fire off the dryline draped across West Texas into Mexico. Storms could manage to move across the Rio Grande into our area late this afternoon, though they should be weakening and ending shortly after moving into our far western areas if that occurs.

Warm low temperatures continue tonight as clouds and patchy fog re- develop over the area. Another slight bump in temperatures is seen for Friday with highs largely in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area. A dryline orientated from northeast to southwest will begin to move into the southern Edwards Plateau and western Hill Country during the afternoon. A strong cap should be in place for much of the day, but there is some guidance that erode the cap just enough ahead of the dryline for one or two isolated thunderstorms to develop. With strong instability and moderate shear available to any thunderstorms that can form, storms could quickly become strong to severe with large hail, damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours the main hazards. SPC has included the Hill Country east into the Coastal Plains in a Level 1 of 5 risk given this conditional set up.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Hot and humid conditions continue this weekend into next week with overall drier conditions. We've gotten into a more Spring like pattern with a dry line moving into our western areas that could kick off very isolated storms mainly in the afternoons if the cap breaks. With ample moisture and instability ahead of the dryline, storms may become strong to severe and produce locally heavy rain each day if they do form. For Saturday specifically, hi-res guidance favors the Hill Country into the I-35 corridor if storms develop. Given the very isolated nature of these storms, precipitation chances will remain low into next week as most will not see rain during this time.

High temperatures will be on a day by day warming trend this weekend into Tuesday with widespread temperatures in the 90s by Sunday. Dewpoints will be high east of the dryline in the upper 60s or low 70s bringing our heat indices into the mid 90s or a little above 100 degrees. These values peak on Tuesday as a front approaches the area but likely stalls out to the north. NWS HeatRisk does denote some moderate risk creeping into our area this weekend into early next week given the early season heat. Within this regime, heat related illnesses may affect those not taking precautions and heat safety measures such as staying hydrated and taking breaks from the sun are recommended.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Chances are about 10 percent that the cap will erode for an isolated storm to form on this portion of the dry-line. If it does so, the DRT VCNTY would be the most likely impact. No mention of convection will be in the TAFs unless we begin to see some towering cumulus. Steady S/SE winds will keep a mostly cloudy day over the area, but the gusts to 20 knots should keep mixing on track to get all sites into VFR skies by 20Z. Moisture in the lower levels should remain abundant from earlier rains, so low clouds should lower toward MVFR well before midnight at I-35 and probably by around 10-12Z at DRT. CIGs could threaten to go IFR just before daybreak, but will follow the slow drying trend and keep all sites MVFR or better through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 87 70 90 / 0 20 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 86 70 90 / 0 20 20 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 86 69 89 / 0 20 20 0 Burnet Muni Airport 69 88 69 89 / 10 20 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 71 92 70 95 / 20 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 88 70 90 / 10 20 20 0 Hondo Muni Airport 70 86 68 92 / 0 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 86 70 89 / 0 20 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 71 86 70 89 / 0 20 20 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 86 70 90 / 0 20 20 0 Stinson Muni Airport 72 87 71 92 / 0 20 20 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.