textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 647 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Scattered spotty showers and isolated thunderstorm activity for portions of the region this weekend (~10-40% rain chance).

- Drier air arrives, ends rain chances early to midweek, and will help provide cooler mornings, and fair afternoons with highs in the 80s for most.

- Low end rain chances (~15-20%) possible late week into weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A moist airmass remains concentrated across the area with PWATs ranging from 1.6 out west to around 2.2 inches to the east. While the front has become ill defined at this point, a mid-level shear axis remains across the Concho Valley into the Hill Country. This has helped to generate rain activity overnight into this morning with a few heavier pockets from Llano into Mason Counties. In the past few hours, this activity has decreased and lifted northward into the San Angelo and Fort Worth CWAs. The focus for any spotty activity looks to then shift east of the I-35 corridor over the Coastal Plains for this afternoon where enough breaks within the cloud cover could allow for limited enough instability with the limited daytime heating to help generate activity. Any heavier activity may produce some lightning and a quick half inch or more with brief downpours. This activity looks to fade this evening beyond sunset. However, overnight tonight into Sunday morning, is forecast to see possible reformation of scattered light, perhaps occasionally moderate, showers along that mid-level shear axis mostly focused across the Hill Country. This activity then fades going later into the day, especially into and through Sunday afternoon. Drier air then starts to work into the region from the north from Sunday night into Monday and will provide a pleasant weather forecast for the start of the long term period. Local temperatures hold in the 70s and 80s this weekend with light to moderate north-northeasterly winds and generally more clouds than sun.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Drier air advances southward into the region for early to midweek with a northerly flow generally in place across the low to mid- levels of the atmosphere. Monday may still have enough lingering moisture for some cloudiness and a stray shower in the Edwards Plateau, otherwise rain chances come to an end with sunshine becoming far more prevalent. This drier air will result in a more refreshing airmass and feel featuring cooler mornings and mild afternoons with low humidity. The afternoon highs stay in the 80s for the most part while the morning lows dip down as low as the upper 50s across the Hill Country and into the low to mid 60s elsewhere.

Low rain chances (~15-20%) enter the forecast late this week into next weekend but the overall forecast confidence is lower than average for this time range as the latest guidance diverges regarding the possible evolution and also interaction between a weakness within the mid-level flow that may establish across the state and a possible disturbance associated with the Central American Gyre in the Bay of Campeche. Temperatures should remain seasonable in the morning but do slowly climb from midweek and afternoon highs will be warm with several nearing or reaching the 90 degree mark.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Light shower activity continues near the coastal plains, with another area of light rain over the southern Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country. Radar trends and hi-res guidance shows most of the light rain will stay outside of our TAF sites this evening into early Sunday, with some light rain possible near AUS closer to 04/12Z. Coverage should be limited, so will not mention at the present time. We do expect a continuation of MVFR cigs along I-35 this evening, with prevailing IFR at AUS after 08Z. We will need to monitor for cigs possibly reaching 600 ft. at AUS in the early morning hours, but will hold off for now. We also mention some TEMPO IFR cigs at SAT and SSF between 11-15Z and will monitor the need for prevailing groups. Out west at DRT, we have kept the forecast VFR overnight, with some TEMPO MVFR cigs 13-16Z. We will monitor for possible lowering of cigs into MVFR in subsequent forecasts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 71 81 70 84 / 20 20 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 73 82 69 85 / 20 20 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 82 69 85 / 10 20 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 68 79 65 81 / 30 30 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 84 69 85 / 10 20 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 70 81 67 84 / 20 20 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 84 70 86 / 10 10 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 71 82 68 85 / 20 20 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 70 82 70 86 / 20 20 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 81 71 84 / 10 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 73 83 72 86 / 10 10 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.