textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures today through Saturday, then trending cooler early next week. Well above normal temperatures return by the middle of next week. - Near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions for most of South Central Texas Saturday and along and east of I-35 on Sunday. Otherwise, elevated fire weather conditions Hill Country, Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains each afternoon through early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Surface observations show the dryline is beginning to mix eastward as noted by recent dewpoint temperature drops along a San Saba to Junction to near Comstock line. Farther to the east, low clouds are thinning along and east of the I-35 corridor where dewpoints are in the 60s and winds generally remain light and variable. Temperature trends generally remain on track today, with highs in the 80s to near 90s. The dryline has been a little slower to mix eastward than anticipated, but we will see a sharp drop in dewpoints behind this boundary as the day continues.

The dryline will likely retreat northward into portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau this evening. Farther east, weak high pressure slides southward into north Texas and this will help to keep some drier air intact across portions of central Texas, including the I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. This should keep the potential for fog development highest for areas generally along and south of the U.S. Highway 90 corridor. Overnight lows will vary quite a bit tonight given the dry air and weak cold air advection to the north (mid 40s) and moist and humid air to the south (lower/mid 60s). We can't rule out some light sprinkles over the coastal plains Friday morning, but given the weak forcing for ascent, we will not mention in the forecast at this time. Weak surface high pressure over the region will keep highs coolest along the I-35 corridor north of Austin and into the nearby Hill Country where lower 70s are expected. Elsewhere, look for highs in the mid 70s to upper 80s. A Pacific cold front begins to move in from the west late Friday night across the southern Edwards Plateau region, with much drier air spreading in behind the boundary.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The Pacific cold front mentioned above will spread southward through the region on Saturday. Much drier air and gusty north winds will accompany the front, leading to an increase in fire weather concerns across all areas on Saturday. We will not see much in the way of a noticeable cool-down on Saturday as highs will still peak in the lower 70s to lower 80s. The more notable cooling shows up Saturday night with lows dropping into the mid 30s to mid 40s. A few spots across the Hill Country may approach freezing around sunrise Sunday, especially in protected valleys where winds go light. Surface high pressure builds across the region Sunday, with highs mainly in the 60s to near 70 degrees. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday will range from the lower 30s to the lower 40s, with some spots over the Hill Country dropping to freezing.

Surface high pressure slides to our east on Monday allowing southeasterly winds to return along the Rio Grande with easterly winds elsewhere. Little change in high temperatures is anticipated on Monday.

A warming trend develops quickly on Tuesday and continues through the end of the forecast period. Highs will mainly be in the 70s on Tuesday, with 80s and 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. The warmest readings will be along the Rio Grande, where some mid 90s are possible Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Clear skies are forecast for all area terminals through at least midnight tonight. However, cigs and vbsys are forecast to deteriorate quickly overnight with cigs lowering to IFR/LIFR conditions between 07Z and 08Z for the Austin and San Antonio airports. There are medium to high chances for these types of cigs to develop. There is a low to medium chance for vbsys to lower between 1 and 3 SM. However, can't completely rule out an hour or so of patchy dense fog around the San Antonio terminals by daybreak. For KDRT, VFR conditions stay throughout the night and forecast to drop to MVFR around 11Z or so Friday. Low cloud deck remains across the I-35 corridor through midday with VFR conditions anticipated to return late afternoon. Light to moderate northerly winds are forecast for most of the day on Friday. Light and variable winds persist tonight into the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The dryline has been a little slower in advancing eastward this afternoon. However, we still expect to see some minimum humidity levels in the teens and 20 across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau today. Northwest winds may be gusty at times, so elevated fire weather conditions are still possible today, with some brief near critical conditions on ridges. Low afternoon humidities in the teens to near 20 percent persist generally along and north of a Del Rio to Rocksprings line Friday afternoon. Wind speeds across this region should remain below 10 mph.

A Pacific cold front will bring increasing fire weather concerns to all areas on Saturday as much drier air and gusty north winds spread across the region. On Sunday, dry air persists as temperatures trend cooler. We could still see some elevated fire weather concerns along and east of the I-35 corridor where winds will be gusty during the afternoon. Dry air lingers into Monday as southeast winds return to the Rio Grande, with east winds elsewhere.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 57 76 59 76 / 0 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 56 76 58 77 / 0 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 58 78 59 78 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 52 74 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 56 85 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 57 82 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 58 78 59 78 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 61 78 61 77 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 60 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 61 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.