textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions continue through mid-evening Saturday.

- A widespread freeze Saturday night into Sunday morning with lows in the teens and 20s.

- Rain chances return to most areas Wednesday, with the higher rainfall amounts still expected over the coastal plains region.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 1246 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The latest observations show gusty northeast winds in place across a good portion of south central Texas, especially from the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains. Despite the cool temperatures, dry air in place will allow for very low humidity levels this afternoon. In addition, the gusty north to northeast winds will continue with gusts likely not easing until late evening. Critical fire weather conditions will be the main concern through this evening. Once the winds drop off, radiational cooling begins under clear skies. This will allow overnight lows to drop into the teens and 20s, with teens favored in the sheltered valleys of the Hill Country. The Freeze Warning for those counties yet to see a widespread freeze remains in effect. These counties include Bexar, Maverick, Zavala, Frio, Atascosa, Wilson, Karnes and Dimmit.

After a cool start, temperatures will moderate back into the mid 50s to lower 60s for highs on Sunday. We will see dry air and another round of low afternoon humidities remaining in place, but wind speeds trend much lower compared to today. Most areas can expect another freeze Sunday night into Monday morning, with lows ranging from the mid 20s to near 35 degrees. We do expect to see a return of light southerly winds and areas that keep some wind during the overnight hours will see lows closer to the lower 30s. In areas where the winds drop off (valleys and low-lying areas), lows will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1246 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Southerly flow in the lower levels continues over most of the region on Monday. However, a cold front will likely move into portions of the Hill Country eastward into the I-35 corridor north of Austin during the late afternoon. A warm air advection pattern takes shape late Monday into Tuesday leading to an increase in cloud cover. Some weak disturbances in the westerly flow will move in and this will aid in some light rain developing over the Rio Grande plains from near Eagle Pass southward Tuesday afternoon. Rain chances will initially be very low and confined to the Rio Grande plains. Rain chances will gradually increase and spread eastward into the I-35 corridor and coastal plains by Wednesday morning. Models continue to favor the better chance for rain will occur Wednesday afternoon and evening over the coastal plains region where increased moisture and warm air advection will align. Rain chances will largely shift east of the region by early Thursday morning, with models trending downward with amounts. Total rainfall amounts should range from 0.10" or less along I-35 to near 0.50" in the coastal plains. We do expect another cold front to move across the region Thursday, with the more notable cooling likely to remain over the Hill Country and nearby I-35 corridor.

Zonal flow aloft Friday into Saturday results in a warming and drying trend through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 459 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR flight conditions continue to prevail through the TAF period. A few mid to high clouds pass from KAUS to KSAT and points east for the first few hours of the period. Otherwise, sky clear conditions are expected. Gusty northerly winds gradually subside after dark, becoming light by midnight. Wind directions turn more southwesterly for most on Sunday afternoon with speeds of around the 7 to 8 kts. Locations along the Rio Grande, including KDRT, will be more south to southeasterly in direction for Sunday afternoon. Speeds subside after sunset Sunday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A Red Flag Warning continues until 8 PM Saturday for critical fire weather conditions across all of south central Texas. North to northeast winds will likely remain gusty, especially along and east of I-35 through mid-evening. A widespread freeze is in store tonight with lows in the teens and 20s. The cold temperatures will aid in humidity recover. However, areas along the Rio Grande will only see recovery near 50 percent, with higher recovery generally in the 60 to 70 percent range elsewhere. Dry air remains intact on Sunday leading to minimum humidity levels down in the teens to near 20 percent. Winds will shift to a more southwesterly direction in the afternoon, with some elevated fire weather conditions in store for all areas, mainly due to the low humidity levels. We will need to monitor portions of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau for gusty southwest winds during the afternoon hours. We do expect rain chances to return to most areas late Tuesday into Wednesday, with wetting rains favored generally east of I-35.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 27 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 25 62 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 26 61 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 23 61 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 30 62 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 23 62 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 24 60 28 66 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 24 62 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 26 60 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 28 60 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 29 61 33 66 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228.

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ205-217>222- 228.