textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 113 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- Seasonably hot temperatures continue through the Holiday Weekend.

- Low shower and thunderstorm chances return late this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A strong mid to upper level high is centered over the central Appalachians with a trough over the Great Basin. This is producing weak southerly over Texas. Surface high pressure over the Gulf is keeping southeasterly flow in the low levels and a warm, moist airmass in place. There seems to be some weaker subsidence as there are isolated showers and thunderstorms moving across the Coastal Plains. None of the hi-res models have this activity. We expect it will continue through the afternoon, but most places will stay dry. The rest of the short term period the pattern will remain about the same. We should see a repeat of the last few days with overnight/morning clouds giving way to mostly sunny afternoon. Temperatures will remain near normal. There will also be a very low chance for a few streamer showers both Thursday and Friday mornings. Consider yourself lucky if you get any rain.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The upper high will move slowly toward the east during the weekend while stay maintaining control over South-Central Texas. The holiday weekend will be seasonably hot and dry. Although we are not going to include any convection, it wouldn't be shocking if there are a few streamer showers each morning from the Coastal Plains to I-35. By Sunday night the upper ridge will have moved far enough east to allow a weak inverted trough to move into Texas from the Gulf. This will bring the best rain chances we've seen in a couple of weeks, but they will still be only around 30% and mainly over the area west of San Antonio. These low rain chances will last until early Tuesday. Then the subtropical ridge will build back over the region bringing back dry weather everywhere. Temperatures will remain near normal through the end of the period. Models suggest some increase in humidity over the eastern part of the Coastal Plains Tuesday and Wednesday and a few spots could reach heat advisory level.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Conditions have improved to VFR early this afternoon as south to southeast winds remain occasionally gusty. Otherwise, we are monitoring some recent convection over the coastal plains that will be moving northward toward the I-35 corridor this afternoon. Coverage should remain isolated and we will not mention convection in the forecast for any of the I-35 sites. Low clouds will develop early Thursday morning, resulting in MVFR conditions at all TAF sites through mid-morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 75 96 76 97 / 0 0 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 96 76 97 / 0 0 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 94 74 95 / 0 0 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 72 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 77 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 74 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 73 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 75 94 76 95 / 0 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 10 0 Stinson Muni Airport 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.