textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Active and unsettled weather pattern this afternoon through Wednesday with localized flooding issues possible.

- Warmer and drier weather forecast for latter part of the work week

- Rain chances return over the weekend and early next week as we turn the calendar to June.

UPDATE

Issued at 341 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

We have expanded the Severe Thunderstorm Watch into Atascosa County with the severe thunderstorm headed into the county from the west. More storms may form later this evening.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

As of 1 PM CDT, the line of storms that extends from the San Angelo's area to the southwest into the Midland's area is producing heavy rain with rain rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour. This trend is forecast to continue as the line pushes eastward this afternoon and evening. This activity is taking advantage of a mid to upper level trough axis moving across the Southern Plains/central Texas. As the day progresses, instability increases to help storms grow to strong and severe weather levels. All severe weather hazards are possible including very large hail of 2+ inches. Can't rule out an isolated tornado or two. A Level 2 of 5 (Storm Prediction Center) risk of severe thunderstorms highlights areas west of Highway 281 and Level 1 of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms east of Highway 281 through Wednesday morning. Also, WPC ERO Day 1 highlights all of South Central Texas at a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall through Wednesday morning. As a matter of fact, we are expecting rainfall rates to be elevated as the convective line of storms moves across most of the local area through the period. Due to saturated soils or very wet grounds per last several days, a quick 1 to 3 inches could cause some sort of flooding issues across the area, especially over the Flood Watch area. The big concern with this line is that if slows down as it pushes through Rio Grande Plains, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Hill Country, then probabilities go up for isolated spots to get up to 5 inches of rainfall. Can't pinpoint the locations and therefore, anyone under the Flood Watch has equal opportunities. The Flood Watch is in effect from 4 PM through 8 AM Wednesday and takes all uncertainties into account. The most likely storm timing is mid/late afternoon and evening along the Rio Grande Plains, late evening through early overnight over the Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor, and overnight east of I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains.

By noon Wednesday, most of the shower and thunderstorm activity should be concentrated east of I-35 corridor with rain chances diminishing and coming to an end during the evening.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Dry weather conditions are in store for Thursday and Friday for the most part. Can't rule out a few showers or even an isolated thunderstorms along and east of Highway 77 both afternoons. After a cooler day on Wednesday due to cloud cover and wet grounds, a warming trend starts for the latter portion of the week with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s over most places with mid 90s along the Rio Grande Plains.

Rain chances return over parts of South Central Texas especially areas along the Rio Grande Plains and Hill Country per latest guidance. The somewhat weather pattern continues into early next week with highs in the 80s and 90s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings are seen across the area this afternoon with a line of thunderstorms developing just west of South Central Texas over the southern Edwards Plateau. While some isolated thunderstorms could develop ahead of this main line denoted mainly by PROB30 groups, the expected timing for a line of storms was used for TEMPO groups. Some lingering showers and MVFR ceilings may be seen behind this line of storms as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 70 84 70 88 / 80 50 30 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 71 84 71 88 / 90 60 30 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 70 84 69 88 / 90 50 10 20 Burnet Muni Airport 68 81 68 85 / 80 50 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 69 89 71 91 / 70 10 10 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 69 82 69 86 / 80 50 30 20 Hondo Muni Airport 69 83 69 87 / 80 50 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 70 84 70 88 / 90 50 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 72 82 70 87 / 80 60 20 40 San Antonio Intl Airport 71 84 71 88 / 90 40 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 71 84 71 88 / 90 40 10 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ171>173-183>192- 202>206.