textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 549 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Warm afternoons with seasonable to mild nights continue

- Low to medium rain chances (15-40%) late Monday through Tuesday; lower confidence later in the week

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The ridging that is the center of the Omega Block pattern over the CONUS will stay settled atop the state through the short term and yields to continued benign weather. There is a weak disturbance sliding through South Texas this morning and this will result in some increased low to mid-level cloudiness and perhaps a few light sprinkles or virga across the Rio Grande Plains into the Del Rio region from the morning into the early afternoon. Elsewhere toward the east-northeast, the skies should remain mostly to completely clear. Once this minor disturbance pushes farther westward into Mexico, the clouds across the western areas clear out and are expected to remain mostly clear from tonight through Friday afternoon as well. The daytime highs remain warm, above climatological average, with majority in the mid to upper 80s. The overnight lows will trend near to slightly above average from the low to mid 50s into the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

The mid-level ridging slowly nudges eastward with time from this weekend into early next week as a trough slowly progresses across the Desert Southwest before ejecting towards the northeast. This trough on today's medium range guidance ejects even farther to the north in comparison to yesterday's deterministic runs. This is a trend towards a weaker upper level pattern, which becomes less supportive for a front to make it across the region sometime early next week. This was signaled within quite a bit of the ensemble guidance and thus I'm not surprised at this trend. The front may still attempt to approach but has higher likelihood to get hung up north of the region with only modest push from a weaker trailing secondary shortwave on the backside of the main trough. This weak trailing shortwave and perhaps the front's proximity if it's close enough may still provide low to medium rain chances (15-40%). The weekend through early next week does still see an increase in humidity nonetheless with an influx of low-level gulf moisture with a return and increase in an east-southeasterly flow at the surface into the low levels. Temperatures won't budge much with slightly more humid nights with an increasing coverage of nocturnal and morning low clouds.

There is considerable uncertainty at this time range but there may be some additional rain chances towards or just beyond the end of our official forecast period with some potential interactions with moisture from the Eastern Pacific with Tropical Storm Vance and the arrival of a front that some of the model guidance haven shown to pick up on. Continue to check in as the pattern evolves and when confidence starts to increase with time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Low clouds continue to develop along the Rio Grande and we will continue to mention low end MVFR clouds between 13-17Z. Some clouds are also noted near SSF, with nearby obs showing cloud bases around 5K AGL. Otherwise, expect SKC or FEW250 through the period with winds trending easterly along I-35 this afternoon, with southeast winds at DRT. Low cloud development could occur again overnight into Friday morning along the Rio Grande, but confidence is not high enough to mention in the forecast just yet as an increase in mid and high level clouds could hamper low cloud development.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 86 59 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 87 56 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 58 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 83 57 83 56 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 85 64 86 65 / 10 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 86 59 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 87 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.