textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Pleasant weather with warm afternoons and cool mornings through the week.

- Dry weather continuing through the week for most of South Central Texas.

- Low end rain chances along the Rio Grande late Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Dry air is keeping the weather quiescent. This morning, the dry air and clear skies helped temperatures at Austin/Camp Mabry dip below 70F for the first time since June, and at San Antonio for the first time since late May. This air may be at its driest Wednesday (based on precipitable water), but the overall airmass will stick around for the rest of the week. The dryness and clear skies will also help temperatures warm appreciably during the daytime, but the continued presence of northerly to easterly low-level flow should keep highs within a few degrees of average. Highs will range from the mid 80s to low 90s today and Wednesday. Lows will range from the 60s for most areas with cooler conditions in the mid to upper 50s in spots in the Hill Country.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The weather stays consistent during the latter half of the week, with slight moderation of overnight temperatures as moisture levels stabilize. Afternoon highs continue to stay in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the 60s through the weekend.

An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it moves across the area Thursday through Saturday. The trajectory of the trough is not especially favorable to rain chances with its track keeping our region under more confluent flow aloft. Areas along the Rio Grande have about a 20% chance of showers late Thursday to early Friday as the passing trough interacts with some westward advection of low- level moisture. Otherwise, models have trended more towards the base of the trough sliding south of our area, with the rest of South- Central Texas remaining under more stable conditions. Depending on the track of the tropical disturbance in the western Gulf, there may be a few isolated coastal showers in the Coastal Plains Friday into the weekend. Models have come into more of an agreement in keeping that system well to our east, so the impacts to our area will be minor to negligible.

Once the passing trough clears the area, ridging will rebuild over Texas ahead of a deep trough over the Pacific coast. After a long and somewhat uncommon streak of north winds, this will cause the low- level flow to revert back to a more conventional southerly wind, leading an increase in dew points and moisture early next week. This supports broader rain chances, with the medium-range guidance suggesting likelihood increasing towards mid-October.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR flight conditions continue under mostly to completely clear skies. Light north to northeasterly breezes between 5 to 10 kts continue for the I-35 sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) during the daytime hours before subsiding slightly after sunset. Closer to locations near the Rio Grande, wind speeds are even lighter at around 5 kts with variable flow through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 65 89 66 89 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 63 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 68 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 62 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 65 92 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 91 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 68 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.