textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday as a cold front moves across the area.

- Warm and humid conditions through Friday, then cooler than normal conditions this weekend into Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A trough continues to lift northeast early this morning bringing a brief period of mid-level ridging over the area. A weak disturbance may bring enough forcing to generate an isolated shower or thunderstorm this evening, but primarily expect dry, though humid, conditions today. Cloud cover will begin to scatter mid to late morning with partly sunny skies and highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s during the afternoon. Persistent south to southeasterly low- level flow will allow for another night of low cloud development bringing above normal low temperatures to the area in the mid 60s to low 70s.

A trough digs into the Central Plains on Friday which will aid in a cold front moving towards our area Friday night into Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions are expected during the afternoon Friday with southerly wind from 10 to 20 mph. Another warm day is expected with highs along the I-35 corridor near 90 degrees with the mid 90s forecast over the Rio Grande Plains.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A deep trough continues its progression east bringing a cold front to our doorstep Saturday morning. This front will move across the entirety of South Central Texas by mid to late afternoon bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Precipitable water values increase ahead of the front generally ranging from 1.5-1.75 inches. With deep moisture in place, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop on Saturday in a favorable environment for instances of locally heavy rainfall. WPC continues to highlight a good portion of our area in a Level 1 of 4 for excessive rainfall this day. Can't rule out a few stronger storms with this activity on Saturday as well, though the earlier timing of the front will likely limit this potential. Cooler air filters in behind the front keeping mild lows on Saturday from the upper 60s to low 70s in the north to the low 80s in the south.

Precipitation chances continue into Sunday but will mainly be light rain with the highest rain chances in our southern and western areas. Some elevated instability may allow for some thunderstorms to develop as well this day, but will likely be sub-severe. Otherwise expect a somewhat breezy day under overcast skies with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

A disturbance within southwesterly flow aloft allows for rain chances to continue Sunday night into Monday, then additional disturbances continue low chances for showers and storms for some of our area into mid-week.

Low level flow turns easterly on Monday with coolest high temperatures of the week forecast in the 60s to low 70s across South Central Texas. Southeasterly wind then returns Tuesday bringing a day by day warming trend into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

For the majority of the morning period, a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions are anticipated for all area terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions dominate the afternoon and evening periods with a southeast to south wind flow ranging from 8 to 16 knots with gusts up to 24 knots mainly in the afternoon and early evening. MVFR cigs return late this evening into Friday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 89 69 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 89 68 90 66 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 86 66 86 61 / 0 0 0 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 70 92 67 / 0 10 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 88 67 89 63 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 89 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 89 68 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 90 69 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 69 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 90 69 92 69 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.