textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch remains in effect through Tuesday evening with pockets of heavy rainfall and high hourly rainfall rates expected at times.

- Monitoring any lingering spin associated with the tropical disturbance over Mexico through mid to late week as well as a disturbance over Texas panhandle Friday into Saturday that could continue our rain chances

- Warm and humid conditions persist with elevated heat indices during the second half of next week

SHORT TERM

(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

As the front continues trekking southward we will see chances for showers and thunderstorms continue to increase overnight out ahead of it. Eventually this front looks to stall somewhere either just north of our region or within it. Still lots of uncertainty on where and when it stalls out. Wherever it does, we could see showers and storms continue to develop along it as abundant tropical moisture from the disturbance now located in Mexico creeps closer. Currently PWATs are in the 2 to 2.4in range across most of our area so the moisture is certainly there. Any thunderstorms that can tap into this moisture will be capable of producing torrential downpours with 2-3 inch rates per hour being possible. With the front stalling and rich tropical moisture present we could see some hefty rainfall totals overnight and through the day Monday as steering for storms will be very weak leading to possibility of flash flooding. Hence we went ahead and issued a Flood Watch earlier that remains in effect now through Tuesday evening as soils remain saturated from the previous few weeks. Additionally, we could see widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches with some areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rainfall receiving up to and above 8 inches. Flash flooding along with responses in area rivers and creeks from runoff will be possible near and downstream of any of those bullseyes of higher totals. Avoid low water crossings and turn around, don't drown!

Moisture will continue to be plentiful with recent Hi-Res guidance continuing to show pockets of heavier rainfall totals continuing into Tuesday somewhere across our CWA(every model has a different solution) Eventually rain chances should begin to shift further south and east through the day as the front begins to move.

Regarding temperatures Monday with numerous showers and storms likely we should see highs drop a bit with mid to upper 80s more likely and heat indices near the upper 90s to near 100 in any of the areas where some sun breaks out. However with the increased moisture it will still feel quite warm and downright muggy for many. TuesdaY could be a few degrees warmer depending on if we see more peaks of sunshine. Heat indices will once again be in the upper 90s to near 100.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 133 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Abundant moisture remains across the area heading into Tuesday evening with most rain and storm chances sliding further southeastward across the Coastal Plains and the TX Coast. Rain chances look to continue at least for the Coastal Plains as leftover spin in the mid-levels of the atmosphere from the disturbance currently meandering across Mexico slowly lifts northeastward. However there still remains considerable uncertainty regarding this tropical disturbance and where its remains eventually end up during midweek. If it tracks closer to our area rain and storm chances would likely increase further westward through the week whereas a track more along or just off the TX Coast would keep chances mainly confined over our Coastal Plains areas. If the more inland scenario plays out then we could be looking at a significant increase for heavier rainfall and the flash flooding threat due to recent saturation over the prior days. However, if the track is more along the Coast then we would need to focus more on hazardous heat with higher heat indices likely across the west and central parts of our area.

To complicate matters even further, several models continue indicating an upper level disturbance located within northwesterly flow aloft across the Texas panhandle that could make its way towards Central Texas sometime during the Friday into the Saturday timeframe. This would continue to aggravate soils and increase potential flooding concerns across the region as more showers and thunderstorms could occur as this disturbance tracks over us.

Regarding temperatures, by midweek we should warm up again with highs in the 90s however it will still be humid as moisture continues to remain across the area especially with any showers and heavy rainfall that occurs from earlier in the week. Thus the prospects for heat remains albeit trending downward as more disturbances look to impact our area. It will still feel very warm however as abundant moisture sticks around. With highs in the low 90s we could still see heat indices anywhere from 100 to 109 degrees. Remember to continue to practice safe heat safety.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A very active night ahead at area terminals. Opted to continue with the status quo, but to add prevailing TSRA at AUS through 09Z and introduce TEMPO groups instead of PROB30 groups at SAT and SSF through sunrise. Low confidence in afternoon storm coverage at this time as well as the evolution of storms for Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 83 74 87 74 / 90 40 60 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 74 86 74 / 90 50 60 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 73 85 73 / 90 70 60 10 Burnet Muni Airport 80 71 86 72 / 90 30 30 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 73 91 74 / 80 30 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 82 72 86 73 / 90 30 50 10 Hondo Muni Airport 83 72 86 72 / 90 60 60 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 73 85 73 / 90 60 60 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 83 74 84 74 / 80 70 80 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 74 85 74 / 90 70 70 10 Stinson Muni Airport 84 74 85 74 / 90 70 70 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ171>173-183>194- 202>209-217>225-228.