textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures today through next week

- Low to medium chances for rain Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and again Friday into Saturday

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Expect a fairly quiet evening tonight as we remain under an upper level ridge with an upper level low still located near/over the Baja Peninsula. Low temps tonight should remain mild overnight with many remaining in the upper 40s to even some mid 50s. Additionally, the only main concern would be the development of patchy to areas of dense fog mainly along and east of the I-35 Corridor much like what we saw this morning. Eventually this system makes its way east across northern Mexico and into Texas by late Monday into Tuesday morning, more on that in the long term portion below. Due to the delayed onset of this system and the accompanying precip, highs Monday are forecast to be in the low to even mid 80s now under partly cloudy skies. Lows Monday night will be very mild as the southerly low level flow increases and moisture remains across the area, expect to see many remaining in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Several models are now in excellent agreement this forecast cycle with the much slower GFS now remaining the outlier. These models all show this system approaching Texas by Tuesday morning. Like the previous couple runs, the onset of precipitation has been delayed by a good 6 hours and it now looks to be not until Tuesday evening that we see more widespread precip fill into the area with precip now lingering into early Wednesday. The NBM seems to have caught on to this as well which now shows pops explicitly for this timeframe however chances have lowered slightly with many areas remaining under 40 percent. Regarding highs, the NBM seems to have come back down to earth for highs Wednesday and Thursday in the upper 70s-Wed and upper 70s to low 80s Thursday as clouds and precip may take longer to get out of the area Wednesday. As this upper low moves out of our area and off to the east, the upper level ridge reestablishes itself by Thursday and into Friday. Most models are continuing to show stronger troughing in the east allowing this ridge to remain over us and get squeezed by the deep troughing developing in the western CONUS. The trough located to our west tries to eject a upper level low towards our area sometime either Friday or Saturday however details remain uncertain as models are not in good agreement at this time. Right now it does look like a slight cool down in temps though still well above average for next weekend with low rain chances peppered in. Stay tuned as details regarding this next system conitnue to come into focus.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

An interesting morning with a low cloud deck that made it to SSF, but not SAT. The low clouds have all dissipated leaving a high deck that is also scattering out. All airports are VFR and will be through the afternoon and evening. We will keep conditions VFR overnight and Monday morning, but with what we saw this morning are thinking that MVFR/IFR ceilings are not out of the question for Monday morning. Our thinking is the flow will not be consistent enough to bring in the moisture and clouds will not form or at least form a ceiling. Winds will be generally from the south at 10 kts or less except at DRT where they will be east-southeasterly.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 55 84 59 78 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 53 84 58 77 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 52 82 56 77 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 53 83 58 74 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 53 84 58 75 / 0 0 0 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 54 84 58 76 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 50 82 54 76 / 0 0 0 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 52 84 57 77 / 0 0 0 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 56 82 59 79 / 0 0 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 55 82 58 76 / 0 0 0 10 Stinson Muni Airport 54 83 58 78 / 0 0 0 10

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.