textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry with temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s around midnight for New Year's.

- Warmer temperatures to start 2026 with dry weather continuing.

- High temperatures likely to near or exceed daily records on Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 1054 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The cool post-frontal airmass that started the week is on its way out and a warmer blend of both plateau and Gulf airmass is on its way in this New Year's Eve. An upper-level ridge is beginning to expand over the area, setting up a warming trend for the second half of the week.

It'll still be seasonably cool for tonight as we ring in the new year. Around midnight, temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-40s to around 50 with only wispy high clouds overhead. Light winds will help temperatures drop into the upper 30s and low 40s by Thursday morning. Once again, low-lying valleys and plains will be the favored spots for cooler temperatures, but with less than 20% chance of freezes. The warming trend will be more evident on New Year's Day as a thermal ridge moves off the Mexican plateau into our area. Highs return to the 70s regionwide. Lee cyclogenesis near the Texas panhandle should provide some breezy conditions Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to around 25 mph on the I-35 corridor and Hill Country. Southerly winds will be pushing higher dew points into the area, so temperatures Thursday night are forecast to be substantially milder and largely in the 50s. Advection fog may accompany the return of this moisture over the Coastal Plains Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1054 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Friday may be among the warmest January days in recent years, particularly along the I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains. Highs are forecast to push into the mid to upper 80s for these areas and the Rio Grande Plains. There is about a 60 to 90 percent chance daily record highs could be set at Austin and San Antonio. The ENS extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift-of-tails (SOT) metrics are also flagging Friday as an abnormally warm day for early January. As an area of low-pressure moves along the Red River to our northeast, winds will veer westerly to west-northwesterly during the day. Modeled lower tropospheric temperatures look warm, but it looks like the main driver of the warmth will be downsloping air along the Balcones Escarpment, leading to a breezy warm wind.

A weak cold front should move in from the north behind the outgoing low-pressure system. That should tone temperatures and dew points down slightly for the weekend, but above average warmth continues with highs in the 70s to low 80s. A brief window of northerly winds may keep nights cooler in the 40s Sunday morning. The upper-level ridge then strengthens heading into early next week, causing moist southerly flow to return and supporting a warming trend through midweek. Based on the synoptic pattern and long-range ensemble means, daily record highs could be challenged again next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR flight conditions continue through the TAF period with some thin high level clouds. These high clouds are expected to thicken towards the end of the TAF period for I-35 TAF sites. Expect light southwesterly winds through this evening and overnight. Winds increase into the 10-15kt range by mid morning for all TAF sites except KDRT. For KDRT expect mainly light southerly winds throughout the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 42 74 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 39 74 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 40 73 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 40 74 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 42 75 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 40 74 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 39 74 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 39 74 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 37 74 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 41 73 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 39 75 53 87 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.