textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect from this evening through Friday evening for most of South Central Texas.

- Some storms tonight and Thursday may also be strong to severe.

- Low to medium rain chances linger through the weekend then decrease heading into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Upper air analysis this morning shows a 500mb low over the AZ/NM border producing southwesterly flow over TX. At the surface there is a low pressure center near the northwest TX/northeast NM border with a Pacific front extending from it. Over our CWA the flow is from the southeast keeping our warm, moist airmass in place. This morning's soundings at DRT and FWD show PW above 2 inches which is in the 90th percentile of the climatological record. The combined upper low will progress toward the northeast pushing the front into the northwestern part of our CWA tonight. This will be the beginning of a wet period. With the high PW air, showers and thunderstorms will be able to produce locally heavy rain. High resolution models are showing a line of thunderstorms moving across our CWA from the northwest to the southeast. In addition to locally heavy rain some storms could be severe producing damaging wind gusts and large hail with a tornado also possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all of South Central Texas except the eastern and southeastern edge counties. The watch is in effect from this evening until Friday evening. We expect widespread rainfall totals of 1-4 inches with isolated amounts up to eight inches. The higher rainfall totals will lead to flash flooding. The front will exit our CWA Friday morning and stall along the coast.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

With the front stalled across Deep South Texas, there will be continuing chances for rain into the weekend. The excessive PW values will have moved out of our CWA and rainfall totals will be more moderate. A few showers may linger into Monday. By Tuesday the front will have moved away and upper level ridging will move back over Texas bringing dry weather back. With cloudy skies and scattered showers the long term period will start off cooler with highs in the 70s and 80s Saturday. From there temperatures will slowly increase reaching the low to mid 80s by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A rather tricky forecast this morning as the timing of convection is more uncertain than usual. For now, will opt to reduce prevailing TSRA to 15-19Z at AUS, SAT, and SSF as hi-res models are more in line with storms moving through around then. Beyond 20Z, confidence drops off significantly and future TAFs will need to address whether or not TSRA will redevelop Friday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings look like a strong bet through at least midday Friday before VFR returns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 89 72 82 69 / 90 90 80 50 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 90 71 82 68 / 90 90 80 50 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 70 81 68 / 90 90 80 50 Burnet Muni Airport 82 70 79 66 / 90 60 70 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 90 69 85 65 / 50 10 30 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 71 80 67 / 90 80 80 50 Hondo Muni Airport 84 70 81 67 / 90 60 60 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 90 71 82 67 / 90 90 80 50 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 72 85 70 / 90 90 80 50 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 73 81 70 / 90 80 80 50 Stinson Muni Airport 89 73 82 70 / 90 80 80 50

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ171>173-183>193- 202>208-217>221-223-228.