textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and dry weather through the work week followed by a cooler weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1214 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The 00Z Del Rio sounding reported a 700mb temperature aloft of 12.4C, a 12-degree rise from two days ago and confirming that an abnormally warm plateau airmass has settled over South-Central Texas. These mid-level temperatures are at the upper-end of observed values for February. Another unseasonably warm day is expected Tuesday with highs in the 80s for most regionwide. Falling pressures across the Northern and Central Plains will also lead to strong southerly return flow across South-Central Texas with breezy winds throughout the day. Most HREF ensemble members depict peak gusts topping 30 mph over elevated portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, with mean peak gusts in the adjusted model blend suggest maximum gusts closer to 40 mph on ridgelines and hilltops in the Hill Country. While this flow should bring slightly more moisture compared to Monday, locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in western portions of the CWA. Gusts elsewhere will tend to be in the 15-25 mph range for most of the day, though the warm temperatures and supportive southerly flow indicate the evening seabreeze over the Coastal Plains and I-35 corridor could be quite breezy with gusts closer to 25-30 mph.

Winds weaken Tuesday night with much lighter winds forecast Wednesday. The dry line should sag south and east over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country early Wednesday, but little substantive impact on our weather is expected aside from lowered dew points for those areas behind the dry line. Warm daytime temperatures continue with highs again in the 80s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 1214 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The base of the longwave trough over the western half of the US will gradually push into Texas over the week, eventually putting our area in a more favorable position for a changeup in the weather. Thursday will be another warm day, perhaps the warmest day of the week with the aid of weak downsloping off the Balcones Escarpment. However, a stronger shortwave embedded in the longwave flow is expected to eject out of the Four Corners region on Friday. There is some disagreement in the strength of this shortwave in the model guidance, with the GFS much more amplified than the ECMWF-IFS and GDPS deterministic guidance. Ensemble means, ML-deterministic variants, and overall trends tend to favor the more amplified case, though current ensemble sensitivity analysis of the upstream synoptic pattern yields mixed signals. In general, a stronger trough would favor a strong Pacific front sweeping across the area late Friday or early Saturday (with accompanying fire weather concerns) before cooler temperatures arrive behind a polar cold front from the north Saturday, while a weaker trough would tend to produce weaker fronts and more gradual thermal/moisture changes. Confidence in rain is very low as deep-layer moisture looks unremarkable at this range, likely limited to the Pacific front. We'll likely have better confidence in the late week pattern by about Wednesday when the features driving these changes become more apparent.

Overall, ensembles have continued to trend towards cooler temperatures by Sunday behind the polar front, though the blended mean still lies in seasonable territory for late February (highs in the 60s to low 70s). As the broader trough moves towards the eastern US, northerly flow in the wake of the trough may support more reinforcing cool air early next week. The latest grand ensemble distribution favors Sunday night/Monday morning being the coldest period within the next 10 days, accompanied by about a 20 percent chance of a patchy light freeze in the Hill Country.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Southerly lower level flow brings IFR/MVFR conditions overnight into Tuesday morning. Probabilities remain high enough for LIFR at KSAT and have maintained TEMPOs there. Mixing erodes CIGs/VSBYs to VFR as winds increase to 10 to 17 KTs with gusts to 25 KTs. MVFR/IFR conditions return Tuesday night as winds decrease to less than 10 KTs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 81 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 81 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 81 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 78 57 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 80 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 84 55 82 57 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 82 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 80 62 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 82 59 81 61 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 84 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.