textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather pattern today through the middle of next week with daily shower and storm chances. Strong to marginally severe storms and locally heavy rains are possible.

- Near widespread coverage of measurable rain by Sunday with possible exceptions over the counties along the Rio Grande.

- Above average temperatures most of the week with seasonably mild temperatures expected Sunday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A typical spring cold front arrives today, bringing the best chance of rain since Valentines Day and possibly the highest 2-day rainfall amounts so far this year. As promising as the pattern looks, the deterministic models paint a more uncertain picture than do the consensus blends and ensembles. Thus we'll have to go through the careful wording of saying "not everyone will get rain" but also "quality rainfall amounts over 1/4 inch can be expected over about 80 percent of our forecast area". This is stated here to provide some guidance to all the agriculture and gardening interests out there that are anxiously awaiting a soaking rain. Those missing out of the higher totals would likely be areas west of Highway 83 and especially along the Rio Grande.

An equally significant, if not moreso, concern with this pattern is the threat for severe weather. The combination of the front, moderate shear, and robust CAPE values exceeding 2000 J/kg at times could lead to large hail and damaging winds with a few of the storms nearest to the front capable of producing some hail sizes in excess of 2 inches. It is March after all.

The front should reach our northern forecast area counties by around 10 AM and reach Austin and Del Rio by around noon as clusters of mostly disorganized convection takes shape along and behind the front. San Antonio is always tough to pick on spring front timing, especially those moving through the midday hours. Various deterministic runs are also showing a small surface low near San Antonio which could further cloud the picture on when that cool air wind shift takes place. Most recent model runs show the front through San Antonio before 3 PM. If that timing is on point, it would mean that San Antonio and areas east along and south of I-10 would have the potential to see the strongest of storms and potentially the highest rainfall totals. Since training along the front is possible, meso-scale models hint of an isolated total or two over 4 inches, mainly over the Coastal Prairies and south of San Antonio.

Scattered elevated convection could continue the mainly hail threat well into the evening and well behind the front. Most model data shows waning intensities just after midnight Sunday. Mostly light elevated convection could continue through the daytime hours Sunday, and the chance of measurable rains is forecast at a solid 50-80 percent. Typical QPF amounts for Sunday should be mainly under 1/4 inch. The convection an almost solid cloud cover behind the front should give us a cool break from the recent warm pattern, but it shouldn't last long.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The broad trough and shortwave that brought today's front will separate from the north and south as a cut-off low sets up to the west of TX Sunday. The low should nudge slowly east toward TX giving the area another big rain chance by midweek.

Overrunning moisture and instability continues into Sunday night, but rainfall coverage and amounts should continue to decrease as the frontal layer dissolves. By midday Monday, the winds are expected to turn back southerly over all areas. There should still be plenty of clouds, but also plenty of breaks, and that will lead to a return of warmer than normal highs in the upper 70s and 80s.

The model consensus from a couple days ago would have suggested a direct hit from this cut-off low from Tuesday into as late as Thursday. All this is pulling away in the last 24 hours worth of model runs, and we should see a correction in the blended guidances with a weaker convective picture and lowering QPF values for Tuesday night and Wednesday. If the latest 00Z family of solutions were to verify, it would still mean a good round of convection for South Central TX, and near widespread coverage for the eastern 3/4 of the area, similar to that of today through Sunday. If the dprog/dt trend shift continues, we could end up with further disappointment, as the long-term drought continues to worsen.

The remainder of the 7-day forecast leaves no opportunity for rain. The departing low should leave us at least 1 day of seasonably cool temperatures, but hot temperatures in the 80s to near 90 are suggested to return by next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

MVFR ceilings are in place over I-35 terminals and continue to build west towards KDRT arriving in the next few hours. Southerly wind continues overnight with some occasional gusts to 20 knots though this morning. A cold front moves across across South Central Texas as early as late morning, but reaches terminals in the afternoon. Wind shifts from the north to northeast behind this feature and may initially be gusty. Showers and thunderstorms are expected along this feature, some of which could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind possible. Models favor I-35 terminals for thunderstorms, though they could occur as far west as KDRT. Any return to VFR conditions this afternoon will be short-lived with MVFR ceilings forecast to redevelop tonight into Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 81 56 71 63 / 80 60 50 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 83 55 71 61 / 80 60 60 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 83 56 70 61 / 80 60 60 30 Burnet Muni Airport 73 52 68 60 / 90 50 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 82 57 68 62 / 50 40 70 30 Georgetown Muni Airport 78 53 70 60 / 90 60 40 20 Hondo Muni Airport 81 55 70 60 / 80 60 70 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 83 56 71 61 / 80 60 60 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 86 59 73 64 / 80 70 60 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 81 58 70 64 / 80 70 70 40 Stinson Muni Airport 84 60 71 64 / 70 70 70 40

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.