textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average high temperatures through Friday with milder temperatures this weekend.

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions possible Wednesday through Friday due to low minimum humidities and moderate southerly winds.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A large upper ridge over the SW CONUS has an axis extending north into ID/WY which we could consider high amplitude. The impact on TX winds are to limit the strength of southerly winds which get minimized by reduced influence of the polar jet and high plains surface troughing. Over South Central TX the winds remain more due southerly and the dry-line remains pinned to the west of DRT. These lighter southerlies will help slow to warming trend for today into Wednesday, although tonight's min temperatures will show some good gains off this mornings lows over the Hill Country where higher dew points and perhaps more cloud cover gets farther inland. Some patchy fog could form over the Coastal Prairies again, but like this morning no major impacts are anticipated.

Wednesday's average height fields still show a good amplitude north into the Rockies, but there is an ejecting shortwave low moving across southern CA into AZ which will probably generate a larger response to the less side surface troughing over TX. MOS guidance shows the afternoon sustained winds picking up around 3 mph higher than those for today. This could mix out the low clouds faster, and that is probably why the warming trend picks up with high temperatures returning to the mid 80s to mid 90s range. While we wouldn't care to message this heat as "near record", it's within a few degrees, and the record for AUS just happens to be 89 set just last year and is quite reachable. Low temperatures Wednesday are shown as slightly lower than those for tonight; an explanation for that might be the daytime winds mixing out the low level moisture faster and resulting in lower evening dew point temperatures.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

The upper ridge flattens over the rockies by Thursday as the compact shortwave low moves into the Central Plains. This bends the lee side surface low into a slight positive tilt trough over TX but not enough to mix down westerly wind components to mix the dry-line east. However, more influence of the air from northern Mexico into Deep South TX should lead to a slightly more arid scenario which means faster morning low cloud burn-off and further temperature warming for Thursday into Friday. Friday might end up as the hottest day of the work week, since a late day cold front will enter the forecast area and possibly bring compressional heating ahead of it in the afternoon. Also on this day, the more flattened upper ridge axis extends more sharply east into Central TX, which means a very low chance for the frontal convergence to warrant any hope for frontal precipitation. Some post-frontal precipitation is suggested in deterministic models but mainly N and W of the forecast area. There should at least be enough frontal strength to add some clouds and add to the cooling potential for the weekend. Saturday's highs will be mainly upper 70s to mid 80s, and Sunday's highs will probably be locked into the 80s area-wide. The ridge aloft never gets much of a chance to build after the weekend temperature reset, as a weak upper trough approaches West TX by Monday. Thus the warming trend for early next week should be more gradual than the current one.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

We're back into the morning ceilings, afternoon sunshine pattern. All terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. Winds will be from the south to southeast around 10 kts. Low clouds will move back in overnight. MVFR at AUS and DRT. IFR at the San Antonio airports. VFR conditions will return by around noon Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026 Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for Wednesday through Friday across South Central Texas, especially the Rio Grande. Low relative humidity between the upper teens and low 20s with southerly winds between 10 to 20 mph bring concerns for any fire that starts to quickly spread. A dry cold front is forecast to arrive Friday afternoon and evening, so there be a brief period of near critical fire weather conditions over the Edwards Plateau, Hill Country and Central Texas behind the front Friday afternoon. Reduced fire weather concerns are expected over the weekend after the front settles in with milder temperatures and decreasing winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 66 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 64 89 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 63 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 65 92 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 63 90 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 64 90 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 65 89 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 66 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.