textproduct: Austin/San Antonio

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freezes forecast Thursday morning for Hill Country valleys.

- Warmer weather expected through the weekend into early next week.

- Slight chances of rain Monday and Tuesday next week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Water vapor imagery and GOES-derived atmospheric profiles show a much drier atmosphere over South-Central Texas this afternoon. Deep- layer northerly winds continue to prevail across the region behind yesterday's cold front, so modest cold air advection tonight will help bring a cool night with lows in the 30s area-wide. Light freezes are forecast in the Hill Country valleys Thursday morning. Cold-core surface high pressure slides moves across South-Central Texas Thursday, bringing calmer winds and another seasonable afternoon with highs in the mid 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

The lobe of polar/Canadian air bringing the seasonably cool midweek weather moves out of our area Friday. In its place, warm air associated with an upper-level ridge over the Intermountain West moves over our area Friday, followed by warm Mexican plateau air this weekend once southerly flow reestablishes. The ridge pattern supports dry, sunny, and warm weather beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s. These temperatures would be about 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages.

Leading up to the weekend, an upper-tropospheric disturbance is forecast to linger around the eastern Pacific and SW US, caught in week steering currents associated with the broader ridging. As the ridge slowly moves east, the disturbance should eventually move into our area sometime early to mid next week. Based on ensemble sensitivity analysis, the timing of this system's arrival is dependent on synoptic changes over the North Pacific that don't come into place until about Saturday, so there likely won't be much clarity in timing until then. That said, ensembles show a general increase in moisture ahead of the disturbance, supporting possible rains next week. The latest model blend depicts 20-percent rain chances across the area Monday/Tuesday, and this reflects the large uncertainty. Increased cloudiness and rain should moderate temperatures slightly, but otherwise temperatures should broadly remain warm.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current forecast period. Occasionally gusty north winds along I-35 will continue through late afternoon, then gusts will ease between 23- 00Z. Light north to northwest winds are expected overnight as some mid and high level clouds move across the region. Out west at DRT, northerly winds continue through most of the period, with westerly winds expected to return beginning Thursday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Austin Camp Mabry 64 40 69 46 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 38 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 66 38 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 61 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 70 39 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 63 37 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 69 35 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 66 37 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 64 38 67 43 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 67 40 68 46 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 69 40 68 43 / 0 0 0 0

EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.