textproduct: El Paso
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 103 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024
Rain and high elevation mountain snow showers are expected into Monday as a disturbance pushes through the region. Breezy conditions persist on Monday as the system departs. The next system arrives on Thursday, bringing breezy winds and precipitation chances, mainly across northern areas. Temperatures will be below normal most of the week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 103 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024
Ahead of the digging upper trough is building mid-level clouds and isolated to scattered rain showers this afternoon. The showers will increase in coverage into the evening from west to east as the Pacific cold front enters the CWA. All areas will see a chance of precip tonight into Monday AM. Additionally, there are areas of blowing dust seen on RGB satellite imagery moving into the El Paso metro due to the gusty WSW winds in advance of the front. Visibility reductions to 2 miles are possible around El Paso and points east into the early evening.
Snow levels will drop to about 7000ft as the low's core moves in Sunday night/Monday AM. Mainly uninhabited areas of the Gila Region/Black Range will see light snow accumulations by Monday morning as the system slides to the east. Silver City could see light snow showers/flurries Monday morning as temperatures fall and moisture is lost on the back-end. However, the Sacs are more likely to see impacts from this first snow event of the season due to upslope flow and snow banding. Snow levels drop to about 7500ft during peak intensity Sunday night.
The official snowfall forecast (4-6") is closer to the NBM 50th percentile than the more bullish HREF which continues to suggest close to a foot of snow in Cloudcroft and points south. CAMs in the past have shown these robust totals with their higher snow rates and more convective nature of the snowfall. At least 2-3" seems like the low-end amount while the high end is where the CAMs are centralized near a foot. With this being the first snow event this season, there is rather high uncertainty in the snowfall forecast in the Sacs. Outside of the high elevations, scattered rain showers are expected from late Sunday into Monday morning. Western areas are most likely to see heavier rainfall (around 0.5") with lower totals as you head east into TX.
Winds remain breezy for Monday underneath the base of the trough as the jet swings into northern Chihuahua. Far west TX will see the strongest winds tomorrow on the backside of the system (15-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph) with east slopes seeing gustier winds. Lighter winds are expected west of the Rio Grande on Monday.
Tuesday and Wednesday look pretty quiet in between systems. Light winds and dry conditions are forecast for Tuesday, followed by breezier winds as another trough digs into the Four Corners region ahead of a strong jet streak. Dry slotting looks to develop under the trough, keeping most of the lowlands free of precip. Northern areas will have the best chance of rain/mountain snow showers around the Thursday timeframe, spilling into Friday. This system is progged to be weaker and less amplified compared to the early week system. Breezy winds are expected Wed-Fri as the system rolls through, but nothing major to worry about. Beyond that, zonal flow develops next weekend, resulting in tranquil fall weather.
Temperatures cool off significantly for Monday on the backside of the first system with highs 10-20 degrees below normal. Monday night will be the coldest so far this season due to near-ideal radiational cooling (clear skies and light winds). Many areas are expected to see their first freeze, most likely in higher elevations that have not yet freezed and western lowlands. Everywhere except the El Paso metro has a chance to freeze Tuesday morning. Temperatures rebound to near normal by Wednesday, then cool later in the week behind a sidedoor front associated with the second system.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 427 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW030-OVC250. The winds will be generally breezy to windy 15 to 25 kts with gusts up the 35 kts while out from the west. RA and SHRA will continue through 12Z across most of the sites. There maybe a few embedded TSRA at KELP until between 03 and 06Z. Active conditions will diminish during the day on Monday. Except for some BLDU at KELP until around 02Z there should be no reduction in the VSBY across the rest of the terminal through the period.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 103 PM MST Sun Nov 3 2024
Breezy conditions continue through Monday as winds shift more west-northwesterly during the day. The strongest winds are expected in far west TX. Rain showers and high elevation mountain snow above 7500ft are expected through Monday morning as a disturbance exits to the east. Calmer and drier weather is forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday before the next system moves into the region. Lowland rain and mountain snow showers are expected on Thursday, mainly in northern areas. Breezy winds are also forecast for this second system from Wed-Fri. Relative humidities remain above critical levels through the forecast as fuels moisten. Temperatures will be near or below normal.
Min RHs will be 25-40% in the lowlands on Monday, decreasing to 15-25% by Wed; 40-70% in the mountains Monday, decreasing to 25-40% by Wed. Vent rates range from poor to good in the mountains Monday, good to excellent in the lowlands.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 49 63 40 67 / 50 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 43 58 32 61 / 40 10 0 0 Las Cruces 42 60 32 64 / 70 30 0 0 Alamogordo 40 55 30 60 / 50 60 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 32 19 41 / 50 50 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 57 32 63 / 70 40 0 0 Silver City 35 53 30 58 / 70 40 0 0 Deming 39 60 30 64 / 70 20 0 0 Lordsburg 38 58 29 62 / 80 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 60 40 64 / 50 20 0 0 Dell City 45 61 32 65 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 65 35 68 / 50 10 0 0 Loma Linda 41 53 34 57 / 50 20 0 0 Fabens 46 63 35 66 / 50 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 59 34 62 / 50 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 59 37 63 / 60 30 0 0 Jornada Range 41 58 30 63 / 60 30 0 0 Hatch 42 62 30 66 / 70 40 0 0 Columbus 43 60 32 64 / 70 10 0 0 Orogrande 42 57 32 60 / 40 40 0 0 Mayhill 31 48 24 57 / 40 40 0 0 Mescalero 29 42 22 51 / 50 70 0 0 Timberon 27 42 21 49 / 40 50 0 0 Winston 28 48 19 59 / 60 40 0 0 Hillsboro 35 58 28 65 / 60 30 0 0 Spaceport 38 58 27 63 / 70 50 0 0 Lake Roberts 27 52 20 59 / 70 50 0 0 Hurley 34 55 27 62 / 70 30 0 0 Cliff 32 61 21 65 / 80 40 0 0 Mule Creek 29 54 18 59 / 70 30 0 0 Faywood 36 55 29 60 / 70 30 0 0 Animas 38 60 30 64 / 80 20 0 0 Hachita 38 58 27 63 / 80 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 38 59 30 65 / 80 20 0 0 Cloverdale 35 53 32 61 / 80 20 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for TXZ418>420-423.
NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ411.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday for NMZ415.
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