textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon and into Sunday. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains, with gusts up to 60 mph possible Sunday morning.

- Near critical to critical Fire Weather conditions through the weekend as well. - Cooler temperatures will make a brief appearance on Monday.

- Temperatures will trend sharply warmer from Tuesday, reaching 20 to 25 degrees above normal by the end of the week. Highs in the 90s will be common in the lowlands.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A shortwave trough extending from Wyoming to Utah and southern California will sweep east overnight. While the strongest part of this system will be focused over the central Rockies, a 100-knot jet streak will develop late tonight as the trough axis sweeps through, helping to enhance winds during the early morning hours.

In the meantime, expect a breezy afternoon as lee troughing develops and the pressure gradient tightens. WSW to W wind gusts around 35 to 40 mph will be common, especially in SW New Mexico.

Winds will generally diminish after sunset, especially across the lowlands, with gustiness hanging on a little stronger east of area mountain ranges. Later tonight, as the trough axis passes through, winds aloft will get another boost, bringing some additional enhanced gusts of 35 to 40 mph east of the Franklins and Organs. Stronger winds will occur over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains, where gusts to 60 mph are possible along exposed ridgelines and east slope locations, peaking between about 5 AM and Noon.

Wind gusts will increase after sunrise across areas east of the Rio Grande as stronger winds aloft linger behind the trough. By afternoon, broad breezy NW flow will prevail across the entire region.

Some cooler air will begin working into the far northern portions of the CWA Sunday, but it still looks like highs in the southern Lowlands will reach the mid-80s.

A backdoor cold front will push into the area late Sunday night. Downslope winds along the west-facing mountain slopes look to range from 35 to 45 mph, just shy of Advisory criteria.

The backdoor front will sputter and stall as it approaches the Continental Divide. Thus, temperatures on Monday will see significant west-to-east variability. Highs will still be several degrees above normal in far SW New Mexico on Monday (mid-70s lower elevations), but will drop to about 5 degrees below normal along the Rio Grande (upper-60s), and 10 degrees below normal over Hudspeth County (lower 60s).

The cool down will be short-lived, as the front washes out on Tuesday, and highs reach back into the 80s across most of the lowlands. Upper level ridging building over southern California will broaden and strengthen through the week, leading to record high temperatures across much of the region for the middle and latter parts of next week. Highs look to reach deep into the 90s in the lowlands, about 20 to 25 degrees above normal, and threatening all-time March records.

The only upside will be the lack of wind, mitigating fire weather concerns.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with SCT150 SCT-BKN250. Surface winds west 15-20G30 knots diminishing to west/northwest 10-15 knots after 06Z. Winds increasing again after 17Z to northwest 10-15G25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon, with critical fire weather conditions over the Sacramento Mountains, and near- critical fire weather conditions elsewhere. We'll likely see brief periods of critical conditions near and east of the Black Range for an hour or two this afternoon.

Stronger wind aloft will push through with a trough passage tonight, bringing strong winds to the Sacramento Mountains in the pre-dawn hours, with little to no RH recovery. The Red Flag Warning in the Sacramentos remains in effect overnight and into Sunday morning, when the worst conditions are expected at an unusual time of day.

Sunday is little more questionable as the peak winds over the Sacramentos look to subside by the afternoon, but overall winds in the lowlands increase again. By afternoon, winds look a little marginal for reaching Red Flag criteria. Given the uncertainty, we decided to keep the Fire Weather Watch in place for the time being.

Cooler temperatures are expected on Monday, followed by a sharp increase in temperatures Tuesday and through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will range from 20 to 25 degrees above normal by the latter half of the week, possibly exceeding all time monthly records. RH values look to drop well below 10 percent as well. Winds, however, will be light through the period, mitigating fire weather concerns. The bigger issue might be with impacts to fuels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 84 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 80 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 49 82 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 79 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 56 25 45 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 79 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 47 75 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 82 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 78 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 83 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 48 83 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 87 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 77 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 86 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 82 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 85 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 83 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 46 86 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 52 83 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 80 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 68 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 41 67 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 40 65 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 70 32 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 79 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 81 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 78 26 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 77 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 39 81 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 36 75 30 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 80 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 79 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 80 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Sunday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.