textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Drier and hotter through Thursday with many lowland areas exceeding 100 degrees.

- First Heat Advisory of the year issued for the Lower Valley for Wednesday.

- Moisture will seep in from the east, giving the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento Mtns a chance of storms today. Returning moisture into the area Friday and Saturday could produce isolated thunderstorms across much of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The sub-tropical high's domination continues. The Pacific trough rides over the northern edge of the high, allowing 100-degree temperatures to cement themselves across the area today. The Lower Valley has received our region's first Heat Advisory for the year, with tomorrow's temperatures there reaching the 105-degree threshold. Skies today and tomorrow will range from sunny to partly cloudy.

For the Gila Wilderness and the Sacramento Mountains, the subtropical high will allow some southerly winds to transport moisture to those regions, keeping the dewpoint temperatures in the 30s and 40s for today and allowing a chance for precipitation. Virga and some light showers from cumulus buildup is possible today for the mountains, along with some mentionable PoPs for the central lowlands, though any chance of precipitation will cease by tomorrow. The HRRR is predicting some convective activity for southern New Mexico, so an isolated thunderstorm or two may be possible today in those lower elevations.

Thursday's weather will be about the same as tomorrow's, and Heat Advisories may need to be issued for the lowlands again on Thursday. Friday will see the high move further east into Texas, allowing southerly flow and sub-tropical moisture to intrude back into the southern New Mexico deserts, allowing a little reprieve from triple- digit temperatures for the weekend. The GFS and the ECMWF are still split as to how much PW there will be for Saturday and Sunday; GFS is leaning towards 1.5", while the ECMWF is leaning more towards 1.3". Keep an eye on this situation.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Beginning around 19Z, a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms is possible for KTCS, KLRU, and KDMN due to southerly flow bringing in sub-tropical moisture. Clouds will mainly be scattered at lower altitudes, with some CB likely until 01Z or so. Gusts will be 20KT at maximum, possibly from an outflow boundary or two. KELP will see possible showers possible from 21Z to 06Z. Amendments are possible depending on future radar trends.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. A disturbance moves through the Rockies today, bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the lowlands and a better chance for area mtns. Dry lightning is a concern for western areas where moisture levels are lower. Gusty outflows are possible for FWZ113 and the Black Range this afternoon and evening. Winds today will be generally light from the south-southwest. Drier and somewhat breezy Wed/Thu as winds shift west/northwest. Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal through Thursday before moisture increases from the east late in the week, bringing relative humidities above critical thresholds into the weekend. Low-medium rain/storm chances develop on Friday, mainly in eastern areas.

Min RHs range from 10-25% this afternoon, then 7-17% through Thu. Vent rates will be good to excellent through Thu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 78 105 78 103 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 99 69 98 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 68 101 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 73 101 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 54 79 55 80 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 100 68 99 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 60 93 61 93 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 67 104 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 99 67 97 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 102 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 68 102 68 102 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 105 75 104 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 95 71 95 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 73 105 73 104 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 101 71 99 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 102 79 101 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 101 69 100 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 68 104 69 103 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 73 103 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 100 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 91 61 92 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 89 59 90 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 55 86 57 86 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 56 92 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 98 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 100 65 99 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 93 56 94 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 62 96 63 95 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 60 99 60 99 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 57 94 58 95 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 65 96 66 95 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 64 99 66 96 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 66 99 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 99 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 93 64 90 / 10 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.