textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1101 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest for the Sacramento Mountains on Saturday, with some slow-moving storms along the east slopes possible again.

- There's a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm working into eastern El Paso county Saturday evening. Breezy outflow winds from the east are a more likely scenario around, and shortly after sunset. - Lowland highs will again be in the 100 to 103 degree range Saturday.

- Scattered thunderstorms all mountain areas starting Monday. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Subtropical ridge is just about centered overhead, and will drift a little to the east on Saturday. Temperatures should be more or less steady from today, with plenty of high clouds. Expect dewpoints to get a boost along the Rio Grande shortly as outflow moves in form the east, but moisture will once again mostly mix- out near and west of the RG by afternoon. HRRR and other HREF members bring thunderstorms back to the Sacramento Mountains by early afternoon, and they may be slow movers again given the weaker flow aloft under the ridge. Storms may manage to develop in east El Paso County Saturday evening, and there's a slight chance of a stray storm reaching ELP after 7 PM. Breezy east outflow winds are likely for a few hours after sunset in the El Paso area.

The ridge will slowly transition westward early next week. Sunday will mostly see convection focused over the Sacramento Mountains again, but low level easterly flow should improve moisture across the region for Monday. By then, the ridge will be parked along the central AZ/NM state line, with northerly mid and upper-level flow prevailing. This is often favorable for a few stronger storms, and the storm motion is more favorable for storms to reach the lowlands without having to rely so much on outflow interactions.

While an uptick in thunderstorm coverage can be expected Monday, the models have all shifted well south with the inverted trough, so expect isolated to widely scattered coverage in the lowlands at best Monday through Wed.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions overnight with plenty of high clouds around. Convection may develop not far to the east of ELP Saturday evening, but probabilities remain around 20 percent at ELP itself. Breezy east outflow winds can be expected, especially after 01-02Z (Sunday UTC). Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds prevailing elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Very dry air will remain in place, especially west of the RGV through the weekend with RH's in the single digits to mid teens. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the Sacs each afternoon through Sunday with isolated over the eastern lowlands. Storms spread areawide by Monday with RH's getting to around 15-25% and continuing into midweek. High temperatures will remain hot with near 100 over the lowlands. Winds through the next week will remain under 15 mph as upper high builds over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 103 78 100 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 69 97 71 95 / 0 20 20 20 Las Cruces 69 100 71 98 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 74 100 73 97 / 0 10 10 30 Cloudcroft 57 77 57 74 / 10 40 0 50 Truth or Consequences 70 100 75 97 / 0 0 10 20 Silver City 64 94 69 92 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 63 102 71 101 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 66 98 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 78 101 77 99 / 10 0 10 20 Dell City 69 100 71 98 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 72 102 75 101 / 0 10 30 20 Loma Linda 67 94 69 92 / 10 20 30 20 Fabens 77 102 78 101 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Teresa 74 101 75 98 / 10 0 10 20 White Sands HQ 75 101 79 98 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 71 100 72 98 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 68 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 71 101 76 100 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 71 99 71 96 / 0 10 10 30 Mayhill 57 88 58 84 / 10 70 20 30 Mescalero 57 88 58 85 / 0 30 0 40 Timberon 54 86 56 83 / 10 50 20 30 Winston 58 91 64 89 / 0 10 20 20 Hillsboro 66 98 71 96 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 65 100 68 97 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 47 95 58 92 / 0 10 20 20 Hurley 63 97 69 95 / 0 0 10 20 Cliff 56 100 69 98 / 0 0 20 10 Mule Creek 52 95 64 94 / 0 0 10 20 Faywood 65 96 69 94 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 66 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 68 99 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 67 99 74 99 / 0 0 10 0 Cloverdale 63 93 68 93 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.