textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting through Friday, running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 102 to 108 each afternoon, followed by a slight cool down this weekend. - Limited thunderstorm activity next few days, focused over the high terrain and far western New Mexico. A pattern shift will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the lowlands starting Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Persistent upper high remains fixed over New Mexico and West Texas, leading to drier and much warmer-than-normal weather conditions for the end of July. GFS 500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the North American Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective temperature/terrain forcing producing meager lift. The primary monsoonal moisture plume is focused further west, mostly over Sonora and southern Arizona.

The main headline for the desert lowlands will continue to be hot temperatures. Suffocating upper ridge aloft will promote very hot afternoon conditions, followed by little relief overnight. Highs will run 8-12 degrees above normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 102 to 108 degree range through at least Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso, the lower Rio Grande Valley, and portions of south-central New Mexico on Thursday, and may need to be expanded further across southern New Mexico on Friday.

Downtrend in storm chances continues on Thursday, with precipitable water values in the 0.9-1.1" range (slightly below normal). The upper high directly over central New Mexico will act as a suppressant for rain chances. Subsident 500-mb flow will cause a warming effect aloft and eat away at potential instability. Southwest New Mexico and the high terrain may still see isolated (10-30% coverage) showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, but the majority of the CWA will remain dry.

Rain chances do increase Friday/Saturday. Upper high will make a retrograde maneuver, shifting west over the lower Colorado River valley. At the same time, a surface boundary moving down the Plains will push additional moisture southwest into the El Paso region. PW's in the 1.3-1.5" range should return by Friday, allowing for more scattered (50-70% coverage) showers and thunderstorms. Current models suggest Friday could be a high flooding risk with very slow storm motions, followed by a higher severe threat Saturday given north flow aloft and marginal 0-6km shear.

The start of next week looks drier again, though temperatures will be sub-Advisory (lowlands highs 98-102). Next week's rain chances once again look to favor the high elevations and western New Mexico, with much of the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin staying dry most evenings.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VMC through forecast period under southeast flow aloft. Overnight surface winds for KELP/KLRU 080-130 AOB 8 knots. No direct TS impacts for Friday, with only isolated TSRA over mtns and W NM. Skies FEW-SCT100 at local terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The next couple of days will be close to the hottest of the summer as the lowlands will be in the 103-108 range. RH's will remain above 10 percent for the lowlands and mainly in the upper teens and 20s for the mountains. Storm coverage the next couple of days will be a little less than recent days, but at least isolated coverage is expected. The upper ridge currently over NM shifts into AZ by the weekend and brings a return to the pattern similar to a week or two ago with northeast flow helping storms develop over the higher terrain and moving onto the lowlands starting Friday and especially Saturday areawide. Some of these storms will be capable of locally heavy rain and some gusty winds/hail. Temperatures will cool down to near 100 for the lowlands by the weekend with RH's on the rise. Sunday looks drier before daily storm chances return for early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 104 78 106 / 0 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 68 101 70 104 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 72 103 75 104 / 10 0 10 10 Alamogordo 72 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 54 78 56 79 / 10 30 20 50 Truth or Consequences 73 102 77 102 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 65 95 68 97 / 10 10 10 50 Deming 72 104 76 105 / 0 0 20 10 Lordsburg 71 102 74 104 / 10 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 78 105 80 106 / 10 0 10 0 Dell City 71 103 73 106 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 76 107 77 109 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 98 72 99 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 75 104 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 75 104 76 105 / 10 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 77 104 79 106 / 10 0 10 10 Jornada Range 74 105 76 106 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 74 106 76 107 / 10 0 10 10 Columbus 75 105 78 106 / 0 0 20 0 Orogrande 71 102 72 104 / 10 0 10 10 Mayhill 59 90 62 91 / 10 20 10 60 Mescalero 59 90 61 92 / 10 30 10 50 Timberon 57 88 60 89 / 10 20 10 50 Winston 63 93 64 93 / 0 30 10 50 Hillsboro 71 100 72 100 / 0 10 10 30 Spaceport 72 103 74 104 / 10 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 60 95 62 96 / 10 20 10 60 Hurley 67 99 71 100 / 0 10 10 40 Cliff 68 104 71 104 / 10 10 10 40 Mule Creek 66 98 68 100 / 10 0 10 30 Faywood 69 98 71 99 / 0 10 10 40 Animas 72 102 74 105 / 10 10 20 0 Hachita 71 102 74 104 / 10 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 69 102 72 104 / 10 10 30 0 Cloverdale 66 95 68 99 / 20 20 30 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Northern Dona Ana County- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.