textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Saturday. Best chances for rain will be east of the Rio Grande. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and blowing dust.

- Dry and breezy conditions Sunday through Tuesday, with blowing dust possible. Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions. - Near normal temperatures through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Upper level trough axis moving onshore this afternoon out west and the area has come under SSW flow aloft and S to SE at the surface. This has brought in some modest low and mid level moisture with surface dew points over eastern areas into the 40s. Expect storms to start developing on the Sacs early this afternoon and then onto the lowlands through the mid afternoon into early evening. Not impressive shear or instability so do not expect severe storms, but with low levels still keeping a 40-50 degree dew point depression, wind gusts over 40 mph are not out of the question. In fact, good agreement among models(CAMs and GFS) that there will be a strong outflow moving north out of Mexico into the RGV around 00Z. This will also likely be a trigger for some pulse storms through sunset. Continued to lower PoPs from the NBM a little bit with more of isolated coverage west of the RGV and high chance east with likely in the Sacs. Shower activity may continue out east into the overnight hours.

For Sat, southwest winds will be moving in out west by mid morning and spreading quickly eastward. This will be a focus for storm development east of the Rio Grande but again severe threat remains low except near far eastern CWA where better shear and moisture will be. SPC Marginal risk seems reasonable against our CWA border.

Starting Sun, more springlike pattern takes shape with a mean trough off to the west and a couple waves crossing the area bringing gusty west to southwest winds. Monday is still looking like the windiest day, but not quite as bad as previous runs showed. Looking like solid 20-30mph which depending on precip coverage the next couple of days will bring at least some blowing dust. Temperatures through the end of the period will be near normal with generally mid 70s to lower 80s for the lowlands.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

As advertised since yesterday a strong outflow boundary is moving across the area this evening bringing gusty winds and areas of blowing dust. The winds have already reach KELP and will reach KLRU by 00Z and KDMN and KTCS between 01Z and 02Z. Visibilities have been briefly below a mile across the area. The wind and dust should slow about an hour or two after they arrive. Then for the rest of the night we will see generally light winds with high ceilings of BKN250. We may see another round of thunderstorms and winds tomorrow afternoon. The main threat for thunderstorms will be east of KELP, but we will have to watch for strong outflow winds. Away from the thunderstorms, we will have low end wind gusts from the southwest in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday with the main focus being east of the Rio Grande Valley. Gusty winds will be the main concern. A stray dry lightning strike can't be ruled out in the Gila into the early evening. Breezy to windy conditions will be the norm starting Sat and continuing off and on through the middle of next week. Sunday and Monday look the windiest and will combine with min RH's in the teens creating some areas with near critical conditions with RFTI values in the 3-4 range. The Sacs are looking at least into early next week to keep RH's closer to 20-25%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 83 58 84 / 50 30 10 0 Sierra Blanca 56 73 51 79 / 50 60 30 0 Las Cruces 55 81 50 79 / 40 20 0 0 Alamogordo 54 78 50 80 / 60 50 10 0 Cloudcroft 42 53 37 56 / 70 60 20 0 Truth or Consequences 55 80 50 79 / 30 20 0 0 Silver City 50 73 45 71 / 20 10 0 0 Deming 52 81 46 82 / 30 10 0 0 Lordsburg 50 80 46 78 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 81 59 82 / 60 30 10 0 Dell City 56 78 51 82 / 60 70 20 0 Fort Hancock 59 82 55 87 / 60 50 30 0 Loma Linda 55 73 53 76 / 50 50 10 0 Fabens 60 83 56 85 / 50 40 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 81 54 81 / 60 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 81 57 81 / 50 30 10 0 Jornada Range 52 80 49 80 / 50 20 10 0 Hatch 55 84 51 82 / 40 20 0 0 Columbus 56 84 54 84 / 30 10 0 0 Orogrande 55 78 51 79 / 60 50 10 0 Mayhill 48 66 45 69 / 80 70 20 0 Mescalero 46 64 41 67 / 70 60 20 10 Timberon 46 63 37 65 / 80 70 20 0 Winston 41 72 37 70 / 20 20 0 0 Hillsboro 51 79 48 76 / 30 10 0 0 Spaceport 50 79 46 79 / 40 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 73 30 70 / 20 10 0 0 Hurley 48 76 42 74 / 20 10 0 0 Cliff 42 79 35 77 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 42 76 33 73 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 49 76 46 74 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 50 81 46 79 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 49 81 48 79 / 20 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 81 49 79 / 20 10 0 0 Cloverdale 52 75 47 73 / 10 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.