textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Temperatures slowly climb through the weekend, with highs approaching daily records. Cooler temperatures will arrive Monday behind a cold front, then they'll climb quickly next week to record levels.

- Breezy to windy west winds are on tap for Saturday, and gustier winds Sunday ahead of the front, especially in Southwestern New Mexico. This will elevate fire weather to near critical as humidity values drop below 10 percent. No chance of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Northwest to westerly flow will prevail across the region through the next week. We will see warming over the next couple of days with increasing westerly surface winds. Friday's winds will remain on the lighter side, mainly 5-15mph, but Saturday we will get into stronger winds out of the WSW in the 15-30mph range with higher gusts. There will be some patchy blowing dust but it does not look like a day with dust products needed, just a hazy afternoon mainly over the southern zones. Temperatures Friday will warm up into the lower to mid 80s for the lowlands with another 3-5 degrees added on for Saturday. The record high for El Paso is 85 on Saturday and this looks like it will be broken.

Some changes start Sunday as a fairly potent upper trough drops SSE through the Rockies and will push a cold front into the area starting Sun afternoon and pushing through overnight. High temperatures will vary across the area depending on the exact timing. GFS and it's ensembles are faster than the EC and it's ensembles. Main difference will be over the eastern areas. For now the NBM looks reasonable with dropping highs about 5-10 degrees in the NE to nearly similar to Sat out west. No moisture with this system, so precip will not be a concern. The amount of cold air moving in is pretty impressive though with H85 temps dropping to near 0C over the east. Also will be a windy night on the west slopes Sun. Highs Monday will fall about 5 degrees out west to another 15 degrees in the east.

Temperatures will start warming Tue and continue into the end of next week as a very anomalously strong high builds over the west and shifts into the Yuma area. High temperatures will again threaten records by Thu.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the period with SKC. Low end breezes will dwindle to light and variable after sunset. Expect afternoon breeziness with wind speeds up to around 10-12G20-25KT tomorrow out of the west.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Thu Mar 12 2026

No fire concerns through Friday with warm temperatures but light winds. Concerns pick up for the weekend as a strong upper trough moves through the Central Rockies and winds pick up and RH's fall into the single digits, even for area mountains. Strongest winds actually look to be late Sat into early Sun, but will be marginally critical Sat afternoon. ERC's getting worse over the east quickly and after coordination with ABQ and SWCC, have decided to go with a Fire Weather Watch for Sat afternoon and evening. This will likely need to go into Sunday and possibly even continue Sat night as RH recoveries will be poor and the strongest winds are expected during this time. Much cooler temperatures come for later Sun into Monday behind a cold front but this will be short lived as some record highs are likely by the middle of next week, but winds will not be as big of a concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 48 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 79 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 42 80 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 58 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 81 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 43 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 40 83 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 46 83 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 38 84 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 42 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 47 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 46 84 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 49 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 36 81 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 85 43 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 44 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 42 80 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 73 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 32 68 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 30 75 39 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 81 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 74 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 41 77 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 31 80 40 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 29 77 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 81 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 43 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.