textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 504 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Mostly dry conditions with storm chances each afternoon mainly over mountains with very isolated thunderstorms in the desert lowlands.

- Storms will produce of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with lowland highs in the mid to upper 90s; Friday and Saturday being the hottest days with temperatures near 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 PM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The borderland region will be trending toward a mostly dry pattern and warmer temperatures the next couple of days as high pressure builds aloft over the area. While sufficient moisture remains, warmer temperatures aloft will increase stability which will limit thunderstorm development to mainly mountains the next few days, where orographic list can aid in storm development. The lowlands will remain mostly dry but may see a a brief isolated storm with spotty rainfall. Day time temperatures will run above normal through the weekend with the lowland deserts seeing values approaching the upper 90s to near 100 by the weekend.

The weather pattern will become more active early next week as the high shifts to the east in response to a large low pressure system moving inland from the Pacific northwest. This will set up a moist southerly flow aloft that will facilitate widespread thunderstorm development across the area for several days. Increased moisture and rain chances will result in lower temperatures closer to seasonal averages.

The long term outlook for late next week remains uncertain with long range forecast models split on whether the moisture and thunderstorm chances continue or we trend back to a drier weather pattern.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

We saw a good night of showers and thunderstorms last night, but for today and tonight we will see much lower chances for precipitation. Thunderstorms will again be possible this afternoon and evening, but those storms will be mainly relegated to the mountains. Our winds today will be generally light from the west or southwest. We will have off and on high and mid ceilings this morning, but as we move into the afternoon our skies will begin to clear as drier air moves into the region. We should have VFR conditions today and tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 540 AM MDT Thu Sep 10 2026

We had a good night for showers and thunderstorms with much of the lowlands receiving some beneficial rains. We will see lower rain chances today through Saturday, with a few storms still possible in area mountains. Min RH's today will be above 20% across the area. We will see a little lower min RH's on Friday and Saturday before the moisture returns and our min RH's jump back above 20% for the start of the coming week. Winds today through Monday will be well below critical levels and our ventilation rates will range from fair to good today and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 98 74 100 / 10 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 94 67 97 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 66 96 68 98 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 67 96 69 99 / 0 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 50 73 53 76 / 0 20 0 30 Truth or Consequences 69 96 71 97 / 0 10 0 10 Silver City 62 89 63 90 / 10 10 0 10 Deming 66 98 68 99 / 20 10 10 0 Lordsburg 68 93 69 94 / 20 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 97 75 100 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 68 99 70 101 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 101 74 104 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 66 90 67 93 / 10 10 0 0 Fabens 70 98 73 101 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 68 96 71 98 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 97 73 100 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 67 96 68 98 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 67 99 70 101 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 71 98 73 99 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 66 95 68 98 / 0 10 0 0 Mayhill 56 87 58 89 / 0 20 0 30 Mescalero 55 85 56 88 / 0 20 0 30 Timberon 54 83 55 85 / 0 20 0 20 Winston 58 88 61 88 / 0 20 10 60 Hillsboro 67 95 69 96 / 10 20 10 20 Spaceport 65 96 68 98 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 88 57 89 / 10 20 10 30 Hurley 63 92 64 92 / 20 10 0 10 Cliff 65 95 65 96 / 10 10 20 10 Mule Creek 63 91 63 91 / 10 20 30 0 Faywood 64 91 65 92 / 10 20 10 10 Animas 68 94 68 94 / 30 10 10 0 Hachita 67 93 68 94 / 20 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 91 67 93 / 30 10 10 10 Cloverdale 63 85 63 86 / 30 10 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.