textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- On Monday we will again see a chance for showers and thunderstorms across the region through the evening hours. Gusty outflow winds will be the main impact. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in mountain areas starting Tuesday persisting through mid-week. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains. Area's west of the Rio Grande will see the better storm coverage.

- By Wednesday, widespread triple digit temperatures return to the lowlands with 100-105 degrees common through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to be centered over New Mexico for Monday and Tuesday, but at the surface we will still have plenty of moisture to work with. This pattern will lead to scattered mountains and isolated lowland thunderstorm for Monday and Tuesday afternoon. The main threat will be strong and gusty outflow wings. For Wednesday through Friday, the upper level ridge will drift off to our west and the circulation around the high will help draw down some drier from the north. As the drier air moves in we will see our high temperatures climb five to seven degrees above average. This will give many lowland locations several days of triple digit high temperatures. For Saturday and Sunday the upper level ridge will be centered to our north. Just how far north will make a big difference. If the ridge is centered over southern Colorado the circulation around the ridge will push large amounts of moisture to the west across northern Mexico too far south of our area, to be of much good. But if the ridge centers itself a little further north, that deeper moisture will be shifted north and we could see an influx of decent moisture. Both of the latest deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF show a good uptick in thunderstorm chances, not this week, but next week as deeper moisture is finally able to move into the area. So to sum things up, continued rain chances for Monday and Tuesday, then hotter with lower chances for rain to finish out the week and then we will wait and see what next weekend and next week look like for rain chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The clouds are dissipating and the winds are slowing across the region tonight. On Monday we will see another chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. My confidence is not high enough that any specific airport will be impacted, so for now I haven't mentioned thunderstorm chances in the TAF's, but the main impacts will be strong outflow winds. Even without the thunderstorm outflow winds, we will see low end wind gusts by Monday afternoon. If the thunderstorms don't impact the airports, those low end wind gusts will drop off a little before sunset. Our ceilings will slowly clear through the morning hours and we will have unlimited ceilings by late morning, before the mid and high ceilings return in Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

In general, fairly persistent fire weather conditions through the upcoming week. Upper high over the region now will move west then up into CO by the end of the week. Enough moisture will remain around the area to get daily scattered mountain/isolated lowland storms going. Moisture will not be as deep as a typical early/mid July pattern typically brings, but min RH's will stay at least in the teens for the lowlands and 15-30% in area mountains. Winds will not be a big concern except near thunderstorms. High temperatures will be near normal through Monday but warm to about 5-8 degrees above normal by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 99 76 100 / 10 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 94 67 95 / 10 30 10 0 Las Cruces 69 97 68 97 / 30 20 20 0 Alamogordo 69 96 69 96 / 20 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 51 73 52 73 / 20 60 10 50 Truth or Consequences 71 96 70 97 / 10 20 10 20 Silver City 67 91 64 91 / 10 60 20 50 Deming 69 100 67 100 / 30 20 20 0 Lordsburg 72 98 69 98 / 10 30 30 10 West El Paso Metro 76 98 76 98 / 10 20 10 0 Dell City 69 97 69 98 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 74 100 74 101 / 10 20 10 0 Loma Linda 68 91 69 92 / 10 30 10 0 Fabens 74 100 74 100 / 10 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 73 97 72 97 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 97 76 98 / 20 30 10 10 Jornada Range 69 96 69 97 / 30 20 20 10 Hatch 70 100 69 100 / 30 20 20 10 Columbus 75 100 73 100 / 20 10 40 0 Orogrande 69 95 68 96 / 20 20 10 10 Mayhill 55 84 57 84 / 10 60 10 40 Mescalero 55 84 55 84 / 20 60 10 50 Timberon 53 81 54 81 / 20 60 10 30 Winston 61 88 59 88 / 10 60 20 50 Hillsboro 68 94 67 94 / 30 40 10 30 Spaceport 67 96 66 96 / 20 30 20 10 Lake Roberts 60 92 58 91 / 10 80 10 70 Hurley 66 94 63 94 / 20 50 20 30 Cliff 68 98 64 97 / 10 60 20 50 Mule Creek 66 94 62 94 / 10 60 20 60 Faywood 67 92 65 93 / 20 40 10 30 Animas 72 99 69 99 / 10 20 30 10 Hachita 70 97 68 97 / 10 20 30 0 Antelope Wells 72 99 69 98 / 10 10 50 10 Cloverdale 69 94 66 93 / 10 20 40 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.