textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 943 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms continues around El Paso overnight.

- A brief stretch of drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday before rain chances return Thursday and Friday with localized flooding. More rain chances for Sunday.

- Temperatures will remain near normal with lowland highs in the mid to upper 70s through midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 943 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Current satellite imagery shows a moisture boundary progressing NW over EP with building clouds south of the metro area. CAMs, particularly the HREF, are showing isolated showers developing along this boundary overnight (1-3am), pushing northeastward through the lower valley/Horizon City area. Rain amounts should be light (0.1-0.25"), but high-end rainfall of 1" is possible based on the HREF. The REFS is much more bearish on rain chances (~10%) and amounts in east El Paso overnight.

Clearing is forecast by sunrise with high low-level humidity and light winds resulting in patchy fog east of the RGV. For Tue, zonal flow takes over, pushing much of the moisture eastward and ending storm chances other than along the Hudspeth/Culberson line. Winds become modestly breezy from the SW in the afternoon for northern areas. Similar wx is forecast on Wed as the flow aloft turns SW, starting to pull moisture northward out of Mexico.

Moisture advection intensifies through Thu as a shortwave trough approaches and provides forcing for ascent. This disturbance will result in scattered to widespread showers and embedded t-storms Thu afternoon and night, especially E of the RGV. With modest instability and weak shear, severe storms are not anticipated from this system. However, there is a low risk of flash flooding due to repeated showers/storms. 90th %-ile NBM shows 1.5-2.5" E of US 54 through Thu night. The flood threat and rain chances will lower as you head west. A weaker shortwave moves in from the SW for Fri, bringing better rain chances to western areas. For Fri, the flood threat favors the Gila Region, but lower overall compared to Thu. Zonal flow and drier air returns on Sat. Seasonal temps, higher clouds, and generally light winds are forecast for Halloween.

The next trough arrives for Sun, bringing more clouds and rain chances Sun/Mon. NM will be favored for rain early next week with drier conditions in far west TX. Western areas and the high terrain are most likely to see flash flooding, but confidence is low. Breezy winds should accompany the trough/frontal passage on Sun. Temps will be near normal through midweek, then cooling a bit early next week behind the Pacific front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 943 PM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Still a slight chance (10-20%) of isolated showers near or just SE of KELP from 7-9z, then clearing. TS not expected. Otherwise, mainly SKC. Winds AOB 6kts through AM, then gusting to upper teens from S at KTCS in the afternoon. Light winds elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1114 AM MDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Not much in the way of concerns for fire weather this week, as other than a brief dry spell Tuesday and Wednesday, we remain in the pattern for chances of rain through the weekend. There will a slight chance of thunderstorms this evening over the Sacramento/Capitan Mtns this evening before the mid-week dry spell. No significant winds are expected this week outside of erratic winds near thunderstorms.

Min RHs: Lowlands 25% west to 45% east through Wednesday, increasing to 40s-50% all lowlands Thursday into the weekend. Gila/Black Range...25-35% through Thursday increasing to 50-70% Friday and the weekend. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...40-55% through Thursday, increasing to 55-75% Friday and the weekend. Vent rates poor-fair through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 77 56 79 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 75 52 78 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 53 75 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 73 52 76 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 37 54 39 56 / 10 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 77 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 76 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 76 58 79 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 52 74 53 77 / 30 20 0 10 Fort Hancock 57 83 59 86 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 51 70 53 73 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 57 79 57 82 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 76 54 78 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 77 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 52 75 52 77 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 53 79 51 81 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 55 79 53 80 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 73 50 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 67 43 70 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 41 64 43 67 / 10 10 0 0 Timberon 40 62 41 64 / 30 20 0 0 Winston 39 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 75 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 76 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 72 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 78 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.