textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 420 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Dry conditions and light winds persist through the work week with typical mid-November temperatures. Some patchy lowland fog is expected again late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

- Next system arrives late on Friday, bringing rain chances through Saturday.

- A more active pattern is likely to return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Latest GOES mid-level water vapor satellite imagery shows a rather sheared low over west Texas with dry air aloft over much of New Mexico in association with a very positively tilted short-wave ridge. Another pleasant fall afternoon is in store for the Borderland, with high temps running near to just a tad below normal for mid-November. Dry air aloft, combined with surface dewpoints hanging in the low-mid 40s F overnight in some southern and western lowland locations, should allow for patchy fog development again tonight, though confidence is only moderate. This is particularly so due to a northerly wind shift moving in late tonight, which may keep the surface layer just stirred up enough to prevent much mist or light fog from forming. Not expecting a repeat of any dense fog, at any rate.

Quiet weather then persists from Veterans' Day through much of Friday, as the next ridge aloft crests over the area Thursday night. As has been advertised, a southern stream mid/upper-level low, progged to be near SAN early Friday, then opens up (high confidence on this, per LREF H5 plots) and moves quickly along the International Border. Mentionable PoPs spread west-to-east Friday night, with highest PoP and QPF in Hudspeth and Otero counties. RRFS does indicate some CAPE Friday night, so a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. With the open-wave structure of the trough, H7 temps only fall to 1-2C, so not expecting much beyond perhaps a dusting of snow at the highest peaks (such as Sierra Blanca). Rain chances persist into Saturday afternoon in the higher terrain, aided a bit by a separate trough/low traversing northern NM.

Another quiet period appears likely for much of Sunday through Monday, courtesy of the next ridge aloft. Confidence is increasing in a more active pattern by the middle of next week, as a long-wave trough set up shop along the West Coast, with shortwaves periodically ejecting ahead of it bringing precipitation back into the picture.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 420 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Winds variable, mainly southwest, at 5-8 knots. Winds mainly northeast 6-9 knots Wednesday afternoon. Note: models show some low clouds/fog forming southern Luna, southern Dona Ana, and El Paso counties late tonight-hence there is a non-zero chance that KELP/KLRU could see some overnight fog, but confidence too low to include in TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

RH falls to the 20-25% range in portions of the Gila NF both this afternoon and again on Wednesday, but 20-ft. winds generally less than 8mph and very low ERC percentiles preclude wildfire spread risk. Generally poor ventilation rates today and Veterans' Day improve on Thursday, especially in the Gila. Vent rates trend up more broadly, to Fair to Good, for Friday to Sunday as rain chances return. A dusting of snow could occur on the highest peaks (above 10 kft.).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 45 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 49 32 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 68 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 39 66 42 63 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 69 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 47 69 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 45 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 44 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 45 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 70 50 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 42 72 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 69 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 43 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 38 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 35 59 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 37 62 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 45 67 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 69 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 67 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 73 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 68 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 66 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 69 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 42 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 44 65 46 65 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.