textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 340 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- After yesterday's break in record heat, we see another short stretch of record March warmth today through Thursday. Daily record highs may be broken with lowland temperatures in the lower to mid nineties.

- Very dry conditions this week, into the weekend. Plenty of sunshine and very low relative humidity values.

- A passing disturbance brings breezy conditions, and near critical fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

- Another backdoor cool front, with gusty east winds and dust, arrives Friday, cooling temperatures Friday, through the weekend, into next week.

- Finally, after nearly three weeks of dry weather, we will see moderate to good rain chances next Sunday night through next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Upper high currently over Arizona/Sonora will remain over the U.S. Southwest this week. Center of the high will make a slow eastward drift directly over the El Paso region by Wednesday, leading to yet another round of record March warmth before finally getting flushed east sometime early next week. This forecast focuses on much above normal temperatures and extremely dry air.

Temperature recovery from yesterday's cold front will be quick, with lowland highs returning to the lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. These temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for late March, and will likely break daily records. Besides the heat, it looks like a nice day Tuesday/Wednesday with light west winds and sunny skies.

Weak shortwave crossing the Southern Rockies to our north on Thursday will allow winds to pick up slightly. This shortwave can be seen rounding the upper high currently and has virtually no moisture associated with it. Weak lee surface low development over the Texas panhandle will promote west winds 10 to 15 mph for our area. This isn't a big concern for most, but will play a role in fire weather given the abnormal warmth and dryness.

Strong 1040mb surface high over the Northern Plains on Friday will bring a cold front southward across the High Plain on Friday. This is yet another unseasonably strong cold front, which shows good confidence in reaching southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Breezy east winds, cooler temperatures, and possibly blowing dust on Friday. Current guidance shows a 10 to 20 degree cooling (lowland highs upper 70s/lower 80s), yet this still keeps us slightly above normal. Recent backdoor cold fronts have kicked up quite a bit of dust over eastern NM and west TX, so El Paso may be hazy that afternoon.

Upper high shifts east next weekend, leaving us in a south flow regime and allowing a fetch of moisture out of the Gulf of California into Arizona/New Mexico. Stronger southwest flow aloft may allow for precipitation chances sometime early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 340 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

High pressure across the region will keep conditions fair. Skies will be SKC to FEW250. Winds will be generally light, from the SW through NW in the 5-12kt range. No vsby restrictions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Yesterday we saw a one-day break in the record setting heat, as a cold front pushed in with cooler east winds, and a flattening of the heat dome aloft. That minor relief in temperatures, and rock bottom RH will totally reverse today, as the upper ridge rebounds quickly, and we see winds shift back west, washing out the cooler air we say yesterday. Today through Thursday, we will again sit under a high pressure dome, with daily warming and drying. Temperatures will again rise to 20+ degrees above normal, as minRH falls back to around 5 percent in the afternoons, with poor night recovery keeping burn windows extended. These days will have plenty on sunshine. The good news is pretty light winds today and Wednesday.

We keep our eyes on Thursday, as our next day of elevated fire weather concern, as we see a passing shortwave to our north, increases afternoon winds. RH will definitely be very low, and winds will become breezy, but don't look strong enough to be critical...likely in the 15-20 mph range with some higher gusts. Thus, no fire weather headlines as of now.

Friday, another cool front pushes in from the north and the Plains. This one will be stronger than yesterday's with gusty east winds, and suspended prairie dust. We will see cooler conditions, that will persist into next week. These temperatures will drop much closer to seasonal normals. We will also see a fair amount of relief in the dryness, as RH looks to rise into the teens Friday, and higher for the weekend.

As we move to Sunday, we see a pattern change as the upper high shifts toward the Gulf states, and a Pacific trough develops to our west. This will create a deep southerly fetch, which will draw in some added subtropical moisture. This will definitely help lift the RH, with improved recoveries, and high minimums. Also, we will see our first chances of showers and thunderstorms, Sunday night through Tuesday, across the region since March 10th. This could be a mixed blessing, due to the chance for dry lighting starts.

Next week, we eye potential for Critical fire weather conditions as we see the pattern flatten to a westerly zonal flow pattern, with an approaching trough to our west. This could produce our next wind system next Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 95 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 93 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 94 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 49 73 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 94 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 86 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 95 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 91 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 97 52 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 98 56 100 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 96 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 93 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 95 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 95 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 52 97 51 97 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 95 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 93 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 85 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 53 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 87 46 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 59 92 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 94 50 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 87 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 89 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 93 47 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 88 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 92 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 92 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.