textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1114 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Remaining very warm on Thursday, just below record levels.

- Windy on Thursday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Near critical to critical fire danger due to continued dry and breezy conditions.

- Cool front moves in Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures and gusty east winds.

- Slight chance of showers Saturday with better chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

We are between upper level troughs today, but it is March, so we will still see some low end gusty winds for a few hours this afternoon. The next upper level trough will approach the region on Thursday. This system is a little mis-timed to get the strongest winds. By Thursday afternoon the upper level trough will still be to the west of the Four Corners region. At the surface we will have a decent lee side trough develop across southeastern Colorado so we will be breezy to windy during the afternoon hours on Thursday and we could see some blowing dust. Right now, it doesn't look like the winds or dust will be a big problem. Since the trough is a little slow to move through the area, the gusty winds will linger into the night, especially for locations east of the Rio Grande. Cooler air will filter in with the upper level trough, so that high temperatures on Friday will be around 10 degrees cooler than Thursday's highs.

For the weekend we will have an east push swing our winds around to the east and they could be gusty Saturday night especially along the west slopes of area mountains. High temperatures this weekend will run near seasonal averages. By Saturday night the next upper level trough will be sitting along the coast of Baja California. Models don't handle cutoff lows very well, so we will see what later models bring with the system. Currently the models indicate that the low will bring a slight chance for rain on Saturday night into Sunday. Then a better chance for rain Monday and Tuesday as the low passes to our south. The system doesn't have a lot of moisture to work with so right now rain totals look on the light side of things. Temperatures for the start of next week will run a little above average. The rest of next week looks dry with temperatures running a little above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

We will see a little less wind this afternoon, but still occasionally gusty for a few hours. We will see some high clouds from time to time this afternoon and evening of SCT-BKN250. For tonight we will have generally unlimited ceilings. Winds look a little stronger on Thursday, so be ready for gusty winds and maybe some patchy blowing dust in the afternoon. Right now the winds don't look too bad for Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

An approaching upper level storm system will give us breezy to windy conditions on Thursday. Those winds combined with min RH's of 10 to 15% will give us near critical to critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Thursday afternoon for the Sacramento Mountains. The winds will stay up for location east of the Rio Grande on Thursday night into Friday morning. Late on Friday a cold front will push across the region from the east to the west and that will flip our winds around to the east for Saturday and Sunday. Min RH's will come up for the weekend with readings of 15 to 20% in the lowlands and 20 to 30% in area mountains on Saturday and a little higher on Sunday. A second upper level storm system will bring a slight chance for rain on Sunday and a little better chance for rain on Monday. Min RH's on Monday will be at or above 20% across the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 52 82 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 78 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 44 76 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 76 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 53 31 44 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 75 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 66 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 79 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 74 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 79 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 81 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 86 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 74 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 84 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 78 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 78 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 76 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 41 79 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 80 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 46 76 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 66 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 39 64 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 62 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 66 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 43 72 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 74 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 64 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 70 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 71 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 67 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 42 69 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 76 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 42 75 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 76 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Thursday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.