textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 833 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- A surge of gulf moisture, from the east, residing over the Borderland Tuesday through Saturday will bring the Borderland region daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail will be possible as well.

- Beginning Sunday, and lasting into next week, a ridge of high pressure will settle over the Borderland. This will bring a warmer and drier pattern to the region. Lowland areas will likely see their first 100 degree highs of the year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 833 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

We started our typically hottest month of the year, June, with slightly above normal temperatures, and just enough moisture in from the east, to pair that heat with showers and storms from the Rio Grande eastward. Tonight, we see a continuation of easterly winds, importing more Gulf moisture into our area. This means bolstering dewpoints into the 40s and 50s, and PWATs above 0.75" for all areas east of the Rio Grande, and at least 0.50" for all but the Bootheel. That means the daytime warming, coupled with light surface convergence, and weakening high pressure, with a trough approaching from the west, will all serve to make for a destabilized atmosphere, resulting in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. They should be more widespread, and wetter east of the Rio.

We repeat the same scenario through the rest of the week, with persistent low-level moisture flow from the east. This keeps our atmosphere moist and unstable. Wednesday through Friday, and likely still on Saturday look to deliver daily round of area wide showers and thunderstorms, as we sit under a slow passing trough and disturbance aloft. The best days for storms and potential for heavy rain look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week, it appears that convective activity may be a bit reduced and more focused south and back east.

Beginning late Saturday, and continuing Sunday, the upper trough progresses east, and some semblance of high pressure looks to form over the region. This will not be a full sweep out of moisture, but we will trend sharply drier, and more stable, to significantly reduce storm chances, and limit them more to the high country. In addition, we are looking at a significant warming trend, with above normal temperatures by Sunday, and likely triple-digit heat for early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 833 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A few lingering light showers will be rapidly dissipating through the mid evening hours. SCT to BKN mid-level clouds will be on the decline through the night. Winds will slacken and become more consistently from the E and SE, after the last outflow boundaries fade. AFT 06Z expect FEW-SCT110-150, Winds 080-120 05-08kts. Tomorrow, aft 17Z expect developing CU SCT100-130 with ISO/SCT TSRA aft 18-19Z. Potential for ISO MVFR near TSRA due to lower CIGS and VSBY in RA. Also, potential for outflow winds of 25 to 35 mph and small hail. Storms most likely in VCTY of KELP, KLRU, KTCS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moisture will be gradually increase from east to west over the next couple of days with rain chances also increasing. Isolated coverage is expected over the lowlands through this evening and Tuesday with scattered coverage in the Sacs. Areawide chances are expected for Wed-Fri with some locally heavy rain and possible flooding, especially on area burn scars. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal and RH's generally above 20% by Wed. Drier air returns this weekend and some lowlands could be approaching 100 degrees with RH's down near 10%. Winds through the period will be under 15 mph except from thunderstorm outflow winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 97 70 93 / 0 10 30 40 Sierra Blanca 63 91 61 86 / 0 30 50 60 Las Cruces 65 94 61 90 / 0 10 30 30 Alamogordo 68 92 61 88 / 10 60 40 50 Cloudcroft 50 69 46 67 / 10 80 40 80 Truth or Consequences 67 91 62 88 / 0 40 30 50 Silver City 57 88 56 85 / 0 10 10 60 Deming 62 98 62 95 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 62 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 30 West El Paso Metro 71 95 68 92 / 0 10 30 40 Dell City 63 92 60 88 / 0 50 50 60 Fort Hancock 69 99 67 95 / 0 20 40 60 Loma Linda 65 88 61 84 / 0 30 30 50 Fabens 68 98 65 94 / 0 10 30 50 Santa Teresa 66 94 63 91 / 0 10 20 40 White Sands HQ 75 94 69 90 / 10 20 40 40 Jornada Range 66 93 61 90 / 0 20 40 30 Hatch 66 96 62 93 / 0 10 20 40 Columbus 68 97 67 94 / 0 0 10 30 Orogrande 67 92 61 87 / 10 50 40 40 Mayhill 56 80 51 76 / 10 90 50 90 Mescalero 55 79 50 77 / 10 80 40 80 Timberon 52 77 48 74 / 10 80 40 70 Winston 56 83 52 81 / 0 50 20 70 Hillsboro 65 91 61 87 / 0 20 20 50 Spaceport 63 92 58 88 / 0 30 30 40 Lake Roberts 54 88 52 86 / 0 20 10 80 Hurley 58 91 57 88 / 0 10 10 50 Cliff 57 94 57 92 / 0 10 10 60 Mule Creek 55 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 60 Faywood 61 90 59 87 / 0 10 10 40 Animas 62 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 30 Hachita 63 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 30 Antelope Wells 62 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 30 Cloverdale 59 86 58 89 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.