textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Hot temperatures through next Friday, with much of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas above 100 degrees. The warmest days will be Monday through Thursday, with Heat Advisories likely for much of the lowlands.

- Dry weather this weekend, with no rain chances area wide. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may return by mid week, mostly over the high terrain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Mid/upper high centers gradually becoming stacked over northern Mexico over the next 24 hours. This will lead to a fairly stagnant pattern over the the next week, though subtle features by mid week could make things interesting. Elsewhere, the main deeper sub- tropical moisture plume is well southeast of the area while another higher level sub-tropical moisture plume drifts across the top of the high over New Mexico.

In the shorter term through Monday...expect very few clouds other than some afternoon buildups over higher terrain and the far eastern CWA where dewpoints will remain a bit higher. Very warm air at 500mb shows the subsidence cap will be rather strong over the area. Temperatures will slowly warm, with most of the lowlands edging into the triple digits. A few zones (El Paso metro, lower valley) may need Heat Advisories by Monday.

Tuesday through Friday...rising heights show the upper high building; however at the same time 500mb temps begin to cool and likely easing the cap. The upper high morphs from an east-west cylindrical shape to more circular. This will allow new sub- tropical moisture to begin infiltrating into the area from the south and west. By Wednesday and Thursday dewpoints increase some as minor moisture advection of Gulf of California moisture makes it in. Thus, will introduce some low end POPs for the mountains each afternoon Wednesday through Friday, and low POPs for the lowlands each evening. Also, the high drifts ever so slowly to our southwest by Wednesday, which allows northwest flow and weak disturbances aloft over our area, aiding in thunderstorm development. Unfortunately we don't escape the heat, as temperatures ratchet up a few more degrees. Heat Advisories likely needed for much of the lowland zones.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VMC through forecast period under light west flow aloft. Skies SKC-FEW120 this evening, becoming clear area wide overnight. Surface winds beginning 240-280 at 6 to 12 knots, then 260-320 at 4 to 8 knots after 03Z tonight. Dry conditions for Sunday, with breezy west winds 250-280 at 15G25KT across S NM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Heat and a dry airmass are the main concerns this coming week for fire weather. Temperatures will be several degrees above normal and ERCs are forecast to pass 90th percentile today and tomorrow most areas (Sacramento/Capitan Mtns reaching that level by mid week). Thus, though no significant winds are expected, very low RHs will keep fire conditions elevated through this weekend and much of next week. There will be slight chances of rain again by Wednesday and Thursday, mostly over the mountains.

Min RH: Lowlands...12-17% today, decreasing to 5-10% Sunday through Wednesday. Gila/Black Range...12-2-% today, decreasing to 7-15% Sunday through Wednesday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...15-25% today, decreasing to 10-15% Sunday through Tuesday and back to 15-25% Wednesday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 71 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 54 78 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 69 102 68 102 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 102 67 104 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 98 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 74 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 103 67 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 105 73 107 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 104 72 106 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 102 65 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 104 65 106 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 101 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 58 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 55 87 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 58 93 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 102 62 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 93 50 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 62 96 62 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 61 98 52 102 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 94 47 96 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 99 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.