textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Isolated showers this evening with additional showers and storms Sunday afternoon. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and gusty winds. - A few rain showers remain possible Monday/Tuesday, followed by dry weather the rest of the week ahead. - Warm October temperatures through Tuesday, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 80s. Cooler temperatures on the way late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The remnants of Rachel have merged/been absorbed into a larger trough, aligned along the West Coast. Well out ahead of the trough, moisture is being drawn northward with some hints of diffluence aloft over NM, Chihuahua, and Far West TX. The result is isolated showers, which have weakened some with the loss of daytime heating. The 00z EPZ sounding showed shallow CAPE with most of it rooted below the dendrite/ice growth zone (-10 deg C), so lightning was non-existent though a few cells still had some decent cores on radar. Shower coverage should continue to decrease through the rest of the night although chances will be non-zero.

The UL low will lift northeast with the right-entrance region of the jet moving over NM on Sunday. With continued moisture, this will lead to additional showers and storms, favoring areas along and east of the Rio Grande. The HRRR is on board with this scenario. Although the trough remains anchored to our west on Monday, favorable jet dynamics will wane with rain chances shifting toward AZ, possibly the Gila.

UL trough will still be anchored to our west on Tuesday, but remnant moisture from Hurricane Simon will be pulled far enough north to enter Texas. Chances of any precip for our CWA continue to dwindle, but a shower or thunderstorm from Simon could still clip parts of Hudspeth County.

The UL low will finally begin to lift out by Wednesday and Thursday with dry air completely moving into the CWA. As the low enters the Plains, it will force a cold front southward, pushing through the CWA late Thursday night, early Friday morning. Friday will be noticeably cooler. In terms of precip chances, both the GFS and Euro lag a piece of the trough behind, likely in response to the cold front, but the GFS reforms a closed low well to our SW, keeping us dry. The Euro keeps more of the trough back, closing it off of the Colorado River Valley, but that puts us in favorable moisture advection. A look at the LREF shows the Euro and GFS ensembles are both favoring their deterministic counterpart. NBM has some low to moderate POPs, which seems reasonable enough.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will continue with vrbl skies with bases as low as 070. ISO SHRA is ongoing as of 4z and will continue for the next few hours with a low but non-zero chance for the remainder of the overnight hours. Any impacts should be negligible. Winds will generally be light throughout the night. By tomorrow afternoon, winds will increase from the SW (200-240) with speeds of around 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Additional SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop late afternoon into the evening, but 20% chance of impacts preclude mention in this TAF cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Low fire danger due to recent wetness and ERCs slightly below seasonal normals. Above normal temperatures on Sunday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening for both Gila and Lincoln NF. Breezy SSW winds 15 to 25 mph leading to Very Good vent rates on Sunday. Moisture shifts east Monday/Tuesday, with a slight chance of additional rain showers over Lincoln NF. Breezy SW flow continues, 15 to 20 mph and Very Good vent rates during the afternoon hours.

Dry weather expected rest of the week ahead, with winds weakening. Wind shifts due to cold front intrusions are possible Friday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 89 66 86 / 20 20 40 0 Sierra Blanca 61 87 62 86 / 20 10 40 0 Las Cruces 62 85 61 81 / 20 20 20 10 Alamogordo 65 86 63 82 / 20 10 50 0 Cloudcroft 48 63 46 60 / 20 10 60 0 Truth or Consequences 60 83 57 79 / 20 30 10 0 Silver City 54 75 52 71 / 20 40 20 20 Deming 61 85 58 81 / 20 20 10 0 Lordsburg 61 81 57 78 / 20 20 10 10 West El Paso Metro 69 88 68 85 / 20 20 30 0 Dell City 63 90 64 88 / 20 10 60 0 Fort Hancock 68 94 68 92 / 20 10 50 0 Loma Linda 62 82 61 79 / 20 20 50 0 Fabens 67 90 67 89 / 20 20 50 0 Santa Teresa 65 87 64 83 / 20 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 67 88 65 84 / 20 20 30 0 Jornada Range 63 86 61 81 / 20 20 30 10 Hatch 62 87 61 83 / 20 20 20 0 Columbus 64 87 62 84 / 20 10 10 0 Orogrande 63 86 62 83 / 20 20 40 0 Mayhill 53 76 52 75 / 20 10 40 0 Mescalero 53 75 51 72 / 20 10 50 0 Timberon 51 72 51 69 / 20 20 50 0 Winston 51 75 48 73 / 20 40 10 0 Hillsboro 59 82 56 78 / 20 40 20 0 Spaceport 59 84 58 80 / 20 20 20 0 Lake Roberts 51 73 47 69 / 20 50 30 20 Hurley 57 78 52 75 / 20 40 10 10 Cliff 56 80 57 76 / 30 60 50 30 Mule Creek 56 75 53 71 / 30 80 50 30 Faywood 59 78 55 74 / 20 40 10 0 Animas 62 82 59 79 / 20 10 10 10 Hachita 60 83 57 79 / 20 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 61 83 58 81 / 20 10 0 10 Cloverdale 58 75 55 73 / 20 20 20 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.