textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Historic March warmth through the weekend. Temperatures will peak Friday through Sunday, with lowland highs in the lower to middle nineties.

- Very dry conditions over the next several days with single digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire concerns for the time being.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

There is very little change to the forecast. An anomalously strong area of high pressure continues to cover the West with it expected to gradually move east, centering itself toward the NM-AZ border by the weekend. Highs will be more typical of late May or early June through Sunday with daily record highs threatened, along with all-time March record highs. The good news (and bad news for future fire threat) is the air is extremely dry, so that, combined with light winds and clear skies, will allow really efficient radiative cooling at night. Lows will drop into the 50s with the interior portions of El Paso a bit warmer.

The UL ridge tries to flatten this weekend as s/w troughs cross it well to our north. The zonal flow will be what helps get temperatures well above record levels this weekend. By Monday though, a stout s/w, well to our northeast, will force cooler, Canadian air southward through the Plains. Both the GFS and Euro show some of this air making it into Far West TX and Southern NM with the 18z run of the GFS more aggressive than the 12z Euro. Operational NBM, which is supported by the 25th through 75th percentile, shows about 10-15 degrees of cooling, a little less toward the AZ border, compared to Sunday. This is still well above normal, but at least it's a break from the historical heat. This cool down will be short-lived though as westerly flow and the rebuilding of the ridge, send temperatures back upward.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

A large dome of high pressure is expanding over the region, and that will keep flight conditions VFR for all terminals through the period. Skies generally SKC, with FEW250 streaming over, as they pass N to S. Winds will be light and variable through the overnight, and then SW in the 3-8kt range through the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 521 AM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A large dome of high pressure is strengthening and expanding across the Southwestern U.S. This will bring increasingly hot and dry conditions to the area. The highest temperatures are expected Friday through Sunday with daily max temperatures as warm as 20 to 25 degrees above normal. At the same time, we will also see the driest air of the season, with Minimum RH values ranging from around 4 to 8 percent in the lowlands this weekend, and 8 to 10 percent in the higher terrain. The one weather element keeping conditions from rising to critical is the winds. The relaxed pressure gradients under the upper ridge, will keep winds quite light. This will mitigate near-term fire weather concerns, but this extended stretch of abnormally warm and dry conditions rapidly and significantly dry fuels.

A minor cool front will push in from the NE on Monday. This will drop temperatures about 10 degrees, but they will still be at least 10 degrees warmer than the daily average. There are some minor gains in relative humidity behind the front, but it is not significant, with minRH still in the teens across the region. This minor dip in challenging fire weather quickly reverses, with more warming and drying, starting Tuesday, but with a continuation of generally light winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 95 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 90 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 51 92 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 93 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 92 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 95 50 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 94 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 93 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 48 95 50 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 98 55 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 96 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 94 50 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 48 95 50 98 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 90 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 47 84 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 50 80 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 44 86 46 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 46 93 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 89 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 96 50 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 91 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 93 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 93 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 60 90 60 89 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.