textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 930 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Quiet weather pattern through the period with dry conditions; breezy to windy afternoon winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Near record warmth the on Wednesday and again next weekend, with lowland high temperatures in the lower to mid eighties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 930 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

This morning an east push moved across the region swinging our winds around to the east. I can't call it a cold front, since our temperatures went up behind the wind shift. Aloft, an upper level ridge will be over northern Mexico on Monday, before drifting back westward to just off the Baja California where it will stay for much of the week. The influence of the ridge will allow a significant warming trend to take place this week and keep us dry through next weekend. Monday will have generally light winds as the ridge aloft is closer to our region. High temperatures on Monday will run a few degree above average.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, as the upper level ridge backs to the west, it will put us in the dry northwest flow aloft. A pair of short wave troughs will slide down the front side of the ridge. Both the troughs will help give us breezy (Tuesday) to windy (Wednesday) winds. We could see a few area of blowing dust on Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will jump with the westerly winds. Tuesday's highs will run 10 to 12 degrees above average, while Wednesday will be near records with readings running 13 to 17 degrees above average. We will see less winds on Thrusday and Friday and our high temperatures will drop a couple of degrees. Then for the weekend, the upper level ridge will flatten and push east across northern Mexico, which will again push our high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday to near record high values.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 930 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

We will have quiet VFR conditions tonight, Monday and into Monday evening. Most of the high ceilings of BKN250 have moved off and we will have unlimited ceilings, tonight through Monday night. Our low end gusty winds have dropped off across the area. We won't see a return to wind gusts until Tuesday and Wednesday. For tonight we will have light and variable or light southeasterly winds. Those light east or southeast winds will continue through much of the day on Monday into Monday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

We will remain in a warm and dry weather pattern throughout the period. Winds will be breezy this afternoon, especially along the International Border, but below any critical thresholds. Min RH values will be well into the teens. Even drier conditions are forecast for Monday and Tuesday as min RH values approach 10%. Tuesday will see modestly breezy winds, but no critical conditions.

Wednesday will see elevated fire concerns as winds top out between 20 and 25 MPH with min RH values in the mid teens in the lowlands with 20s in the mountains. Give ERCs in the 50th percentile, marginally critical RH values, and winds just above critical thresholds, I will abstain from any fire headlines on this forecast update.

Venting category will be good across the International Border today with fair to poor elsewhere for today. Venting will be poor all areas for Monday with the light winds. By Tuesday, venting will improve to the good to very good category with very good to excellent venting on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 37 68 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 31 64 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 31 65 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 31 65 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 25 49 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 32 65 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 32 62 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 33 67 36 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 66 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 39 67 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 28 65 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 35 71 38 82 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 34 62 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 36 70 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 34 65 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 36 66 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 29 66 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 29 68 34 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 35 67 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 31 65 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 27 62 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 27 59 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 30 55 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 24 61 30 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 32 65 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 27 65 33 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 65 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 30 64 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 30 70 33 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 30 67 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 33 62 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 33 67 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 33 66 35 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 32 67 38 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 36 65 43 74 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.