textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the Lower Valley through Thursday evening.

- We will see an uptick in thunderstorm activity on Thursday, but the best chances for rain will continue to be west of the Rio Grande. We will have a drying trend as we head into the weekend.

- High temperatures will continue to run about 5-8 degrees above average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Not much changing in the short term, but there is hope in the extended forecast. Currently the upper level ridge that has controlled our weather is centered over the New Mexico/Arizona border. During the day on Thursday, the upper level ridge will drift north to near the Four Corners region and that will allow our precipitable water values (PW's) to climb a bit as moisture is able to work into the region from the east. This increased moisture will help fuel an uptick in thunderstorm activity, so most of the area will have a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, but the best chances for rain will be west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures Thursday will continue to run 5 to 8 degrees above average.

By Friday and into the weekend, drier air will return to the region and we will see lower rain chances across the area. The Gila Wilderness will continue to see at least a slight chance for rain, but the rest of will likely stay dry through Sunday. High temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday will run 3 to 5 degrees above average. Most lowland locations will be at or a little below the triple digit mark for high temperatures.

For Monday into the Tuesday, the extended models are beginning to indicate a pattern change. The upper level ridge over the Southwest will begin to weaken, while the Bermuda high over the Southeast U.S. will begin to strengthen. This will be a slow process, but by Wednesday, we begin to see signs of a true monsoon pattern setting up over the desert Southwest. We will see what later runs of the models bring.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Thunderstorms and winds are beginning to settle down. We will likely see a few isolated showers and weak thunderstorms for a few hours after midnight but those should not be impactful. By morning we will have unlimited ceilings, but by early afternoon clouds will build and we will have scattered thunderstorms and associated high and mid ceilings. The best chances for thunderstorms will be west of Las Cruces. I went ahead and mentioned a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon for KDMN, but the rest of the TAF sites I did not mention thunderstorms. We will update the TAF's for those sites as needed. Winds tonight will be light but then we will see some low end gusty winds on Thursday afternoon. And as we have seen the last few days, any thunderstorms that do form will be capable of producing some strong and gusty outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1007 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Scattered storms develop over area mtns this afternoon with frequent lightning and gusty to strong outflow winds to 50 mph possible. Better storm coverage over Gila today compared to Lincoln. Isolated heavy rainfall is possible out west. Light SE flow outside of outflows today. Storm coverage increases a bit for Thursday with scattered activity in the S NM lowlands into the evening. The marginal flash flood threat remains out west for tomorrow. Winds stay light from the SE for Thu. Storm chances dwindle into the weekend, favoring western areas with isolated coverage. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for the weekend as Min RHs drop to marginally critical. Temps remain a few degrees above normal into next week.

Min RHs range from 15-40% into the weekend. Vent rates will be fair to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 102 75 101 / 10 10 20 0 Sierra Blanca 68 98 68 97 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 71 100 69 98 / 20 10 40 0 Alamogordo 71 99 69 98 / 10 30 20 30 Cloudcroft 54 76 53 75 / 10 50 20 30 Truth or Consequences 72 100 71 99 / 20 30 20 10 Silver City 64 93 64 93 / 20 50 20 50 Deming 70 101 69 99 / 10 10 40 0 Lordsburg 69 99 70 98 / 20 10 20 20 West El Paso Metro 77 102 75 100 / 10 10 30 10 Dell City 72 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 76 105 76 104 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 70 95 69 94 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 75 103 74 101 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 72 98 / 10 0 40 0 White Sands HQ 76 101 73 99 / 10 20 40 0 Jornada Range 72 100 70 99 / 20 20 40 10 Hatch 72 104 70 102 / 20 30 40 0 Columbus 74 102 73 99 / 10 10 40 0 Orogrande 71 99 69 97 / 10 20 30 10 Mayhill 59 87 58 87 / 10 30 10 30 Mescalero 59 88 57 88 / 20 50 20 50 Timberon 57 85 56 85 / 10 40 20 30 Winston 63 91 61 91 / 10 40 20 30 Hillsboro 69 98 67 98 / 20 40 40 20 Spaceport 70 100 68 99 / 30 30 30 10 Lake Roberts 59 93 59 93 / 20 70 20 60 Hurley 65 96 65 95 / 20 40 20 30 Cliff 66 99 67 99 / 20 40 20 60 Mule Creek 64 95 65 95 / 20 40 20 60 Faywood 68 96 67 95 / 10 40 30 20 Animas 69 99 70 98 / 40 10 40 0 Hachita 68 98 68 97 / 10 10 50 0 Antelope Wells 68 98 69 96 / 30 20 50 0 Cloverdale 64 92 65 92 / 50 20 60 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.