textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

- Warm temperatures through the weekend, with highs approaching daily records. Cooler temperatures Monday behind a cold front. Rapid and excessive warming to record levels next week.

- Breezy winds expected Saturday afternoon. Winds remain up overnight. Strong winds Sunday afternoon. This will elevate fire weather to near critical as humidity values drop below 10 percent. No chance of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Through the weekend, we will see a deep dry NW, quazi-zonal, flow pattern over the region with a passing Pacific trough to our north. This will mean a continuation of the current stretch of fair, warm, and dry weather, but with increased winds for the weekend as the trough passes. Temperatures will continue to warm, with weekend highs steady and about 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-March.

The trough will induce breezy conditions of 15-20 mph sustained during the afternoon hours on Saturday but will become windier overnight and into Sunday. A Wind Advisory may be warranted for the Sacramento Mtns as this area, and the eastern slopes, could see windy conditions overnight and through much of the day Sunday. Wind speeds will be generally 20-25 mph sustained Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, a side door front will begin pushing in during the afternoon shifting northerly and then easterly late Sunday and into Monday. Gusty winds can be expected as the front pushes through. The Tularosa Basin will probably see some windy conditions due to the funneling effect with northerly winds. Breezy east winds expected to continue early Monday morning as the front pushes westward through the morning and early afternoon. West slopes will see the windiest conditions Monday morning. This will be a pretty potent front as temperatures will drop from the U-70s and L-80s Sunday to highs in the mid-60s and L-70s.

Tuesday and beyond, high pressure begins to strengthen to our west and slowly shift east over our area. This will begin an rapid and sharp warmup through the remainder of the week, with highs in the 90s possible late week. This means record setting highs, with daily max temps around 20 degrees warmer than average.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

We will continue to see low end gutsy winds for a few more hours this evening before the wind gusts drop off. We will have generally light west winds tonight, but the gusty winds will return on Saturday. The winds will be a little stronger than today, but right now it is not looking too bad, I'm not expecting any blowing dust. Our ceilings will stay unlimited tonight, but by early Saturday morning, we will begin to see higher clouds move into the region. We could see some high ceilings by Saturday afternoon of SCT-BKN250.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

***Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected late Saturday through Sunday afternoon***

High pressure is here for warm to hot, and critically dry conditions. a passing Pacific trough will bring increased winds to the region for both Saturday and Sunday this weekend. This combination of warm/dry/breezy and windy conditions will elevated fire weather concerns, with near critical and critical conditions across the region. Thus there are Fire Watches and Red Flag Warning in place across SW and South Central NM and Far West Texas for Saturday and Sunday.

Warm conditions with low teens and single-digit RH across the region through the weekend. Temperatures will be at least 10, and closer to 15 degrees above the daily normals (near records). Winds will be somewhat slow to increase on Saturday, as the upper trough is still well upstream to our NW, with a developing surface trough in the afternoon helping to drive up wind speeds. We are anticipating sustained winds to get up to 20 mph, with gusts around 30 mph. We should see winds further increase in the evening and overnight periods for elevated terrain, being the sky islands and especially the Blacks and Sacs ranges. Then for Sunday stronger winds will overspread all of Southwest and South-Central NM and Far West TX throughout the morning hours on Sunday, with critical fire weather conditions expected for most areas. Fuels are dry enough for concern, and with fuel advisories in effect for both the Gila and the SACs, due to die off and bug kill, we will error on the side of caution and keep fire headlines in play for Sunday.

Late Sunday/early Monday a cold front will sweep through the area from the NE, pushing SW. We will see a 10+ degree cooldown, but the air with and behind the front is also quite dry. Min RH values will remain in the lower teens and single-digits. Winds will shift from NE to E and become much lighter Monday. The cool down will be short-lived with a rapid warm-up beginning Tuesday. Much above normal temperatures mid-to-late next week. This will greatly dry fuels, but no significant winds are expected with high pressure overhead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 52 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 46 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 82 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 59 38 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 49 83 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 46 83 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 79 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 42 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 86 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 83 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 83 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 86 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 51 84 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 73 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 68 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 83 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 76 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 41 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 46 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 80 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 80 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 75 47 75 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 3 PM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 3 PM Saturday to 6 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

High Wind Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.