textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Breezy to windy conditions today, creating near critical to critical fire weather. A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains, with gusts up to 70 mph possible this morning. - Cooler temperatures will make a brief appearance on Monday.

- Temperatures will trend sharply warmer from Tuesday, reaching 20 to 25 degrees above normal by the end of the week. Highs in the 90s will be common in the lowlands.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strong short-wave extending from Raton to Casa Grande, AZ, will continue sweeping eastward overnight. This will allow breezy winds to continue for much of the night for the overall area. More local areas of strong wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will flare up along east sides of terrain and over the Sacramento Mtns. Short- wave is through the area by about 12Z, allowing winds to slowly diminish Sunday, though still quite breezy through around noon. Though High Wind Warning for the Sacs not materializing yet, though Salinas Peak (upwind and general elevation as the Sacs) did just record a gust to 57 mph. Warning runs through the end of Sunday afternoon. Fire conditions are the other concern. Red Flag Warning also continues for the Sacs through Sunday afternoon. Fire weather watch for most of the lowlands Sunday looks more iffy, as stronger morning winds couple with humidity too high for criteria. By the time min humidity is reached in the afternoon, the winds likely will be too weak. But will leave the Watch out for now and let next shift decide on upgrade or cancellation.

Strong looking back door coldfront moves hits the far eastern CWA late Sunday afternoon and sweeps west across most of the rest of the CWA by Monday morning. Front makes it out to the Cont Divide or possibly to AZ state line before retreating east back to the RG Valley by Monday afternoon. Cooler air stays mostly from the RG Valley east, with temps west remaining just above normal, while temps to the east fall to around to just below normal.

Enjoy the moderated temperatures Monday, because the rest of the week will see eastern Pacific high rapidly build over the entire Desert Southwest. Temperatures will quickly rebound from Monday, reaching around 10-15 degrees above normal Tue/Wed, and 15-20 degrees above normal Thursday into the weekend. By Thursday, many lowland sites could record their first 90 degree day of the year. At El Paso the earliest ever 90+ degree day is March 18 (Wednesday). Fire conditions will remain near-critical as very low humidity and drying of fuels continue. Fortunately, no significant winds appear in the forecast after Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mountain-top winds near 40kts expected this morning, creating low-level wind shear for all terminals before the inversion breaks after sunrise. Occasional gustiness early this morning becomes frequent during the day, reaching 30-35kts from W-NW. Winds subside in the evening but with lingering gusts to 20kts. BLDU is not expected due to the more northerly wind component. However, winds shift E late in the period behind a strong cold front, which could bring in dust from the east and lower VIS to MVFR levels. Confidence is low in this occurring. Other than FEW-SCT250 moving in during the day, SKC expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 515 AM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Fire weather concerns will be moderate today as winds start out strong this morning, especially over the Lincoln Nat'l Forest. Winds peak after sunrise with gusts up to 60 mph at 20 feet possible from the northwest. Winds gradually decrease during the day, becoming just breezy for the afternoon when RHs fall below critical levels. There will be an overlap between the strong winds and low RHs around midday, creating critical fire danger in FWZ113. Elsewhere, fuels are not as dry, but breezy NW winds and critical RHs will result in near-critical fire weather. RFTIs of 3-5 are forecast today across the area, so it's a lower-end Red Flag day. Red Flag Warnings are in effect until 8pm this evening, not including FWZ111 where fuels are less of a concern.

This evening, winds shift northerly and then east behind a strong cold front, so any ongoing fires will be at risk of that wind shift. Calmer for Monday other than lingering AM breeziness. Mostly light winds expected for the rest of the week as temperatures quickly rebound from a cooler Monday. Temps reach record highs later this week.

Min RHs range from 6-15% today, then 8-20%. Ventilation will be excellent today; then good to excellent in the mtns through Tue, poor to good for the lowlands.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 40 68 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 32 62 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 67 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 32 67 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 49 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 71 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 39 70 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 40 72 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 41 76 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 42 68 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 31 62 32 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 37 71 40 84 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 33 61 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 39 70 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 38 67 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 38 67 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 33 69 30 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 37 72 34 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 73 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 33 65 32 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 20 56 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 23 60 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 28 56 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 72 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 40 71 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 34 71 31 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 72 32 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 36 70 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 78 32 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 74 29 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 39 68 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 78 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 40 74 40 81 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 76 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 44 76 47 79 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.