textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the end of the week. Very dry out west. - Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend with lowland highs around 100 degrees. Trending wetter for next week, especially in area mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

No change in the forecast for the rest of the week as the upper high sits over the Mid-Atlantic through Fri. With troughing over the Northwest, a subtropical moisture plume remains over eastern NM and west TX. Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances (10-30%) into the weekend as high pressure aloft stretches westward and cuts off the moisture from the south. Gusty winds and brief downpours will be the main threats for areas to the east. Gusty outflows to 40 mph and blowing dust will remain the primary hazards for the El Paso area, but with low impacts. Areas to the west stay dry and will see lighter SW flow.

For the 4th of July, an upper high establishes over southern NM, keeping most of the region dry (PWs ~0.75"). Scattered thunderstorms develop over the Sacs in the afternoon, drifting southward into the lowlands for the evening. Gusty outflows and a shower/storm are possible into the evening along and E of the US-54 corridor. Warm, calm, and dry conditions are forecast otherwise with lowland highs near 100 degrees.

A more active monsoon pattern looks to set up around this new upper high for the first half of next week. Moist, SE flow reaches further west through S NM with storm chances favoring area mountains beginning Mon. Scattered mtn and isolated lowland storms is the most likely scenario into the middle of next week with storm motion generally to the southwest. We'll see where the high sets up and if any impulses come across the region to provide more than just orographic lift. PWs climb to 1-1.2" into midweek with a low chance of reaching the 1.3-1.4" range, which would be above the 90th %-ile for early July. Temps hold near normal into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions today, with plenty of high clouds to start, especially at LRU and ELP. Thunderstorm chances look to stay further east today as well.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 641 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Persistent troughing to our west will slowly lift north over the next few days, allowing the subtropical ridge to build westward. But for today, expect a near repeat of the past several days, with breezy and dry southwest winds in SW New Mexico, and just enough moisture for isolated thunderstorms east of the Rio Grande. Minimum RH values will drop into the single digits over parts of the Gila Region, but winds will be slightly lighter than the past couple days.

After today. temperatures will begin trending upwards, and winds will ease and shift to the south over SW New Mexico. The precip pattern and chances will remain more or less unchanged until early next week, when moisture overspreads the area, and a disturbance passing to our south follows a more typical east to west monsoon flow. This will bring decreasing temperatures and higher humidity values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 100 75 101 / 0 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 64 92 66 95 / 20 20 20 10 Las Cruces 65 98 68 99 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 67 97 70 99 / 0 20 10 20 Cloudcroft 50 75 53 76 / 0 30 10 40 Truth or Consequences 66 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 64 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 97 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 98 75 99 / 0 10 10 10 Dell City 66 97 68 99 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 71 99 73 101 / 20 20 20 0 Loma Linda 66 92 68 93 / 0 20 20 20 Fabens 71 100 73 101 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 69 97 71 100 / 0 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 98 76 99 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 66 98 69 99 / 0 10 10 10 Hatch 65 101 68 102 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 71 100 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 96 68 97 / 0 20 10 10 Mayhill 55 86 57 87 / 0 40 10 40 Mescalero 54 86 55 88 / 0 30 10 30 Timberon 52 83 54 84 / 0 20 10 30 Winston 56 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 64 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 98 66 99 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 54 94 57 94 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 60 96 64 96 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 59 98 64 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 94 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 62 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 64 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 97 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 98 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.