textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 908 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026 - Temperatures run above normal through the end of the work week.

- Low-end rain chances on Monday night and Tuesday timeframe, especially along the International Border.

- Precipitation chances return for Thursday night through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Over the next seven days, we will see a pair of upper level troughs move across the area, the exact track and timing of those troughs will determine who gets precipitation or who might see some winds. Currently an upper level trough sits well to our southwest off the coast of central Baja California. For tonight and Monday, the system will be too far away so our weather will stay dry and quiet with high temperatures on Monday running 7 to 10 degrees above average.

For Tuesday into Wednesday the upper level trough to our southwest will start to move to the northeast. It looks like most of the energy and moisture will stay to our south, but we could see some precipitation both days, especially along the International Border. I'm not expecting much precipitation in area mountains, but any that does occur will likely be rain below 8,000 feet or light snow above that level. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will run 5 to 9 degrees above average.

For Thursday we will have a dry and warm southwest flow aloft which will help high temperatures jump 10 to 12 degrees above average. For Friday and Saturday, the second upper level trough will move across the region. The exact timing and path of the trough is still a little in doubt. The further north it goes, it lowers the rain chances and increases the wind strength, the further south the trough goes, it increases the precipitation chances. The system doesn't look like it has a lot of moisture to work with so rain and snow totals will be low. This system is a little cooler than the early week system, so snow levels could drop to around 7,000 feet. Snow levels drop even lower on Saturday, but that is when the moisture and the trough itself are exiting the region. High temperatures on Saturday will still run a few degrees above average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Our ceilings this afternoon and tonight will be unlimited. High ceilings will begin to creep to the north Monday morning and give KELP some high ceilings of BKN250. Our winds this afternoon and tonight will be light and variable and those light winds will continue into Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1045 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

We will see a couple of rounds of precipitation, but the impacts will be pretty limited. Despite the precipitation we will have dry min RH's but not too dry and we will see some winds over the next 5 days, but not too windy. We are not expecting to see any critical levels reached through the end of the week. Min RH's will be in the mid to upper teens today and Monday in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Then min RH's come up for Tuesday and Wednesday, then the drop a little lower for the end of week. Every place still looks to stay above 15% through Friday. We will have light winds tonight through Tuesday and then a little stronger winds (but still well below critical levels) for Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates will be poor to fair on Monday and then fair to good on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 44 73 51 69 / 0 0 20 40 Sierra Blanca 44 70 49 64 / 0 0 30 60 Las Cruces 37 68 45 66 / 0 0 10 30 Alamogordo 36 69 43 68 / 0 0 10 40 Cloudcroft 31 50 35 48 / 0 0 10 40 Truth or Consequences 39 70 44 68 / 0 0 10 20 Silver City 38 65 42 64 / 0 0 10 30 Deming 37 71 45 69 / 0 0 20 40 Lordsburg 37 70 43 67 / 0 0 10 30 West El Paso Metro 46 71 52 68 / 0 0 20 40 Dell City 38 71 45 67 / 0 0 10 40 Fort Hancock 45 76 51 72 / 0 10 30 50 Loma Linda 44 66 48 62 / 0 0 20 40 Fabens 42 74 50 70 / 0 10 30 50 Santa Teresa 39 70 48 67 / 0 0 20 40 White Sands HQ 43 70 49 68 / 0 0 10 40 Jornada Range 34 70 43 67 / 0 0 10 30 Hatch 34 73 43 71 / 0 0 10 30 Columbus 40 71 48 69 / 0 0 20 40 Orogrande 37 68 45 66 / 0 0 10 40 Mayhill 34 66 40 61 / 0 0 10 40 Mescalero 32 62 38 60 / 0 0 10 40 Timberon 37 59 40 57 / 0 0 10 40 Winston 29 64 33 64 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 39 69 44 68 / 0 0 10 30 Spaceport 33 69 40 67 / 0 0 10 30 Lake Roberts 32 65 38 64 / 0 0 10 30 Hurley 35 67 40 65 / 0 0 10 30 Cliff 34 71 39 70 / 0 0 10 30 Mule Creek 35 69 39 66 / 0 0 10 20 Faywood 39 66 44 66 / 0 0 10 40 Animas 37 71 45 67 / 0 0 20 30 Hachita 37 69 43 66 / 0 0 20 30 Antelope Wells 39 70 44 66 / 0 10 20 40 Cloverdale 43 67 46 61 / 0 10 30 40

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.