textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 432 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Warm and dry again Friday.

- A fetch of southwest moisture, and an approaching trough will bring slight cooling, more clouds, and a chance for light precipitation over the weekend, favoring western and central areas.

- A strong frontal passage Sunday night will bring much cooler temperatures and low chances for wintry precipitation on Monday over Eastern and central areas of the Borderland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

The very long duration of flat zonal flow across the southwest has been broken by yesterdays trough passage; and won't be returning for a while, as several more Eastern Pacific low pressure systems move into and across the western states. For tomorrow, we continue with the Christmas day pattern of deep southwest flow across the region, with an upper trough digging down the west coast. Friday will be a warm fair weather day, with plenty of sunshine, and relatively light winds.

The weekend continues that southwest flow pattern, but the approaching trough digs southeast across the Western U.S. tapping into subtropical moisture, at mid and upper levels. This will stream high and mid clouds over the region, with minor ripples in the flow. This should allow for a repeat scenario, of what we saw Christmas eve, with an area of scattered light rain showers over our western zones Saturday, and advancing east into central zones overnight into Sunday. High snow levels will make this a rain event, with low impact light rain for most areas that see it.

Sunday, and Monday, a pair of upper-level low pressure systems dive out of western Canada, into the Rockies and Upper Plains states. For the most part we only get a glancing blow from the southern one, but what they do that will impact us, is push a huge and significant cold front south across most of the U.S., including our region. We will see much cooler air move in Sunday night, on N and NE breezy winds with the cold front. Moisture is the big question, with the second uncertainty being the degree of cooling resulting in the level of snow vs rain. As it looks now, it appears that the best precipitation chances will be over our SE zones, including S Otero, hudspeth, and El Paso counties, with some spill over into Dona Ana, and Luna counties. The coolest air will be over these same areas, especially over Hudsepth co. As for now we are seeing a good potential for rain/snow mixes over these areas, all the way down to desert floor elevations for Monday into Monday night. Snow amounts look to be relatively light, but still impactful, at 1" and below, with some of the higher lowland areas seeing as much as 2". We will have to check with later model runs, but there are hints of the better moisture to our S and SE rotating N and W over the southern areas for TUE precipitation.

Finally, we see yet another, warmer low pressure system work in from the west to end the week, Friday and Saturday. Models do suggest more precipitation chances for these days to start the new year on a sporadically wet note.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 432 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Generally VFR conditions through the period. SKC...aft 16Z increasing SCT150 BKN-OVC250. Aft 00Z...a few BKN100 -SHRA possible west of Deming. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning becoming southwest 8-12 knots this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 432 AM MST Fri Dec 26 2025

Looks like winds/wind shifts will be the big story for fire weather over the next several days as humidities remain relatively high. A couple more very warm days today and Saturday before big changes. Increasing clouds tonight and Saturday could bring a few showers in, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley. More clouds on Sunday will finally begin cooling the forecast zones a bit. By Sunday night a strong cold front will drop across the area from the north and east. This will bring a significant wind shift to the north/northeast later Sunday into the night time, along with gusts of 30-40 mph. Chances of rain will develop Monday into Tuesday morning, with the best chances in the south toward the International Border. Snow levels could drop to as low as 4000 ft later Monday.

Dry and warming up again after Tuesday, though perhaps another chance of rain Thursday night and Friday of next week.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Sunday, then 30-40% Monday through Wednesday. Mountains 35-45% today, 55-70% Saturday, then 25-40% Sunday through Wednesday. Vent rates poor-fair today, good-very good Saturday/Sunday, then back to poor-fair Monday through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 52 74 50 66 / 0 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 49 72 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 67 40 60 / 0 10 10 10 Alamogordo 47 69 43 62 / 10 10 20 10 Cloudcroft 39 49 33 40 / 10 10 20 10 Truth or Consequences 46 67 40 60 / 10 20 20 10 Silver City 43 57 35 53 / 30 60 40 10 Deming 46 69 40 62 / 10 30 20 10 Lordsburg 45 64 37 57 / 30 50 40 10 West El Paso Metro 53 71 51 64 / 0 0 10 10 Dell City 44 75 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 77 48 69 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 50 66 45 59 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 49 75 48 67 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 48 70 46 62 / 0 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 54 70 48 63 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 46 68 43 61 / 10 10 20 10 Hatch 41 70 40 64 / 10 20 20 10 Columbus 49 70 47 64 / 10 20 20 20 Orogrande 47 70 43 62 / 0 0 10 10 Mayhill 42 63 38 55 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 39 60 33 51 / 10 10 30 10 Timberon 38 58 33 51 / 0 10 10 10 Winston 36 59 28 52 / 10 30 20 10 Hillsboro 46 65 38 60 / 10 30 20 10 Spaceport 38 67 36 60 / 10 10 20 10 Lake Roberts 39 56 30 53 / 30 60 50 20 Hurley 39 61 33 56 / 20 50 30 10 Cliff 36 62 31 59 / 30 60 50 10 Mule Creek 41 57 30 54 / 30 70 40 10 Faywood 46 61 38 57 / 20 40 30 10 Animas 47 67 40 60 / 30 40 40 10 Hachita 44 66 41 60 / 20 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 46 67 43 63 / 20 30 30 20 Cloverdale 48 59 41 56 / 30 40 40 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.