textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 920 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

- Dry conditions and warm temperatures for Tuesday.

- A backdoor cold front will bring breezy to windy east winds and cooler air Wednesday and Thursday. - The dry conditions look to continue Friday and Saturday, warming back up to above normal. - Lowland rain and mountain snow chances (20-30%) return to the forecast for Sunday and next Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 920 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

We continue in a ridge west - trough east pattern, which has kept us mild to warm. Weak surface high pressure will replace Monday's lee trough across the High Plains, so winds will be much lighter for Tuesday. A s/w trough will also be working its way southward through the Plains, which will push a cold front through Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Wednesday Morning. Highs on Wednesday will be closer to normal.

While all of this is happening, a rex block will form over the Pacific within the ridge. By Thursday, the low within the Rex Block will being to open up as a wave before heading northeast. This will turn flow aloft from the southwest, so temperatures will rebound by Friday back well above normal. Otherwise, this trough passage will only bring us some mid and high clouds for Friday and Saturday.

As we get into Sunday and Monday of next week, another s/w trough is expected to develop in its wake across either AZ or farther south into Mexico, potentially drawing in moisture ahead of it before crossing the area some time Monday. The 18z GFS and 12z ECMWF are both dry with this system as it passes the area, but in spite of that, NBM increased POPs for Sunday and Monday since the morning forecast package. Although the deterministic models are dry, a review of the 12z LREF and members of the 18z GEFS justify the increase in POPs to the 20-30% range. Accumulations would likely be on the lighter side.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 920 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions will continue with variable high clouds. Winds will be light with speeds under 10 knots. Direction will be somewhat variable though favoring a northerly component for much of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 937 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Dry southwest flow today and Tuesday will result in variable high clouds and well above normal temperatures. A weak weather system moving through the area generate breezy afternoon winds this afternoon. Winds aloft will become northerly Wednesday, allowing a cold front and cooler temperatures (back down to normal values), along with breezy to windy east winds. Next Pacific trough will move through the fire zones Friday and Saturday, bringing in more clouds and temperatures back to well above normal. There will be a slight chance of light showers next Sunday and Monday.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Saturday. Mountains 20-30% Gila/Black Range through Saturday; Sacramento Mtns 25-40% through Saturday. Vent rates fair-good this afternoon, and again on Wednesday; poor-fair all other days through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 42 68 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 62 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 37 65 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 34 64 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 26 44 24 38 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 38 65 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 63 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 39 68 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 66 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 44 67 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 34 62 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 42 69 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 60 38 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 42 69 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 39 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 65 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 34 65 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 36 68 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 67 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 35 63 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 29 58 28 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 28 57 26 50 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 31 53 30 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 62 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 39 65 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 34 65 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 63 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 35 65 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 33 70 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 67 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 39 63 37 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 67 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 66 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 67 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 44 64 41 58 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.