textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 934 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns this weekend. - More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return toward the start of July, favoring eastern areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 934 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue to drift eastward across the region this evening. Gusty outflow winds were observed throughout the area earlier in the evening including gusts to near 52 mph at the office here in Santa Teresa. There is a slight chance (15-20%) of additional convective cells to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours again tomorrow and linger into the early evening mainly along the international border and over the mountainous terrain. However, it will be more spotty than today.

A strong upper level trough is progged to move through the Rockies this weekend, forcing the subtropical high further east along with its moisture. Rain chances will be near zero outside of far west TX this weekend as breezy west to southwesterly winds drop dew points to the 30s. The strongest winds are forecast to the north and west (15-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph) where the pressure gradient is tighter.

The upper level high strengthens over the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week with persistent troughing over the Northwest. This will set up a nice tap of subtropical moisture into our area out of Mexico, likely focusing east of the RGV. Mean PWs are modeled to stay relatively unchanged between this weekend and into midweek, but this would be a favorable synoptic set-up for the monsoon. As of now, there is a low risk of flash flooding for eastern areas later in the period. Mostly dry conditions are forecast west of the RGV through midweek as modestly breezy SW winds persist. Temps continue their slow cool down into next week to slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle at area terminals. Winds will become breezy out of the west to southwest Saturday afternoon with gusts to near 25-30 knots. Winds will remain elevated through the evening hours before gradually decoupling overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 934 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS

An upper trough moving into the northern Rockies will result in breezy west to southwesterly winds Saturday/Sunday, creating elevated to near critical fire weather conditions each afternoon. Areas to the north and west will see the strongest winds (15-25 mph, gusts to 35) with Sunday being a bit windier. Fuels will continue to worsen towards the 90th %-ile or higher this weekend.

Lighter winds are expected further south and east through Otero County and into far west TX. Recent rainfall, lower ERCs, and higher RHs will keep the Lincoln out of the RFW for now at least. Winds become lighter after Sunday, but modest southwest flow persists, keeping most of the area dry. Low rain/storm chances linger to the south and east into next week while temps slowly cool down.

Min RHs range between 12-25% this weekend. Vent rates will be mostly excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 101 76 100 / 20 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 68 96 68 95 / 30 10 20 20 Las Cruces 69 98 68 98 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 99 70 98 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 54 76 55 75 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 69 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 91 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 68 100 68 100 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 97 67 97 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 99 75 98 / 20 0 10 0 Dell City 71 100 70 99 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 74 102 74 101 / 40 10 20 20 Loma Linda 69 93 69 92 / 20 0 10 0 Fabens 73 101 73 100 / 20 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 72 98 71 97 / 30 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 76 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 99 69 98 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 68 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 101 73 100 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 69 98 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 60 88 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 87 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 55 84 56 84 / 10 0 10 0 Winston 59 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 64 98 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 91 57 90 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 64 94 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 64 97 63 96 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 63 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 66 93 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 67 97 66 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 66 97 66 96 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 68 96 / 30 0 10 0 Cloverdale 65 90 64 90 / 30 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM MDT Sunday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.