textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026 - Slight storm chances this afternoon for Otero/Hudspeth Counties. - Mostly dry for the 4th of July with a shower or storm possible along and east of the Rio Grande Valley; scattered storms in the Sacramento's. Lowland highs around 100 degrees Saturday and much of next week.

- Isolated thunderstorms mountain areas all week. Additional moisture enters the area Monday and Tuesday for a chance of thunderstorms all areas those two days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Heading into the holiday weekend, high pressure aloft expands westward from the Mid-Atlantic, cutting off the moisture plume that's been sitting E of the US-54 corridor. Slight storm chances remain out east for Fri afternoon with gusty winds and brief downpours being the main concerns. Weak outflows progress westward during the evening towards the RGV like previous days.

For the 4th of July, the upper high establishes over NM, allowing moist, easterly flow to reach further into the CWA. PWs climb towards 1" along the RGV during the day with a few storms possible east of the river (0z HRRR) in addition to scattered convection over the Sacs. NBM PoPs were bumped up slightly for Sat PM to reflect the most recent CAMs. Gusty outflows to 40 mph and brief downpours are possible from this activity into the evening. Most of the storms should dissipate by the time fireworks shows begin as we lose diurnal heating. Mainly dry west of the RGV as winds stay light outside of outflow boundaries. Temps will be slightly above normal with lowland highs near 100F.

A more active monsoon pattern looks to set up around this new upper high for much of next week. Moist, SE flow reaches further west through S NM with storm chances favoring area mountains beginning Mon. Scattered mtn and isolated lowland storms are expected each day from Mon-Wed as PWs climb to 1-1.2" (75-90th %-ile). With the upper high nearby, storm motions will be slow and increase the risk of flash flooding, especially on Mon/Tue. The presence of troughs/vorts around the high would provide further lift for convection next week, but confidence is low in where/when they might have an impact. Moisture looks to decrease a bit later in the week. Temperatures hold near or slightly above normal for early July.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC this morning. This afternoon...SCT-BKN100 CU buildups mainly east of the RG Valley, with increasing SCT-BKN250 all areas. Slight chance thunderstorms with BKN080CB this afternoon and early evening over Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming south/southwest 7-10 knots this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Fire concerns look to be on the low side this weekend and into next week. However as you go west, fire conditions worsen slightly as min RHs remain low through the weekend. A few storms are possible this weekend east of the RG Valley where better moisture persists. RHs increase all areas Monday and Tuesday as moisture increases, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Non-thunderstorm winds are expected to remain relatively light for this forecast period. ERCs remain a bit above seasonal levels but are forecast to decrease slightly as the new week unfolds.

Min RH: Lowlands west of RG Valley...6-12% through Sunday, then 15-20% Monday and Tuesday. Lowlands RG Valley east...12-20% through Sunday, then 15-25% Monday and Tuesday. Gila/Black Range Mtns...8-15% through Sunday, then 25-35% Monday and Tuesday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...15-25% through Sunday, then 25-40% Monday and Tuesday. Vent rates good-very good through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 101 77 100 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 66 95 68 95 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 68 99 69 98 / 0 10 0 10 Alamogordo 70 99 70 97 / 10 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 54 80 54 78 / 20 40 10 50 Truth or Consequences 70 99 72 98 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 65 93 67 92 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 67 100 69 99 / 0 10 0 10 Lordsburg 67 97 70 98 / 0 10 0 10 West El Paso Metro 75 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 69 99 70 98 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 73 102 74 101 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 69 93 69 92 / 10 20 10 10 Fabens 73 102 74 101 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 71 99 72 98 / 0 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 76 100 77 98 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 66 99 67 98 / 0 10 0 10 Hatch 67 102 69 101 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 72 100 75 100 / 0 10 10 10 Orogrande 66 98 67 97 / 10 20 10 20 Mayhill 58 90 58 87 / 20 40 10 40 Mescalero 57 90 57 88 / 20 40 10 50 Timberon 55 87 55 85 / 10 30 10 30 Winston 62 92 62 90 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 68 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 63 99 64 98 / 0 10 0 10 Lake Roberts 52 95 57 94 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 64 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 53 99 61 98 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 49 94 56 94 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 66 95 68 94 / 0 10 0 10 Animas 68 98 70 98 / 0 10 0 10 Hachita 67 98 69 98 / 0 10 0 10 Antelope Wells 69 98 70 99 / 0 10 10 10 Cloverdale 66 92 67 93 / 0 10 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.