textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

- A Pacific cold front will arrive Friday evening, bringing scattered rain showers overnight into Saturday. A few bands of heavier rain will be possible, especially across West Texas.

- Breezy and cooler on Saturday, with lowland highs in the lower 60s. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal into next week with midweek precipitation chances for Southwest New Mexico.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Pacific low currently moving ashore in Southern California will be the primary weather factor for Friday. Ahead of it, we'll see high clouds moving in early Friday morning. SSW flow aloft will promote moisture increases overnight, with PWs jumping to 0.8" across South-Central New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon. Slight negative tilting within the trough axis aloft and very favorable diffluent flow ahead of the system will lead to the development of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Banded shower activity will move across much of the region between 5PM-11PM Friday night, with a few bands leading to heavier rain rates and localized flooding. PoPs favor areas east of the Rio Grande, including El Paso, Hudspeth, and southern Otero Counties. Current forecast shows widespread rain amounts in the 0.20-0.50" range, with a few spots up to 1.00" east of El Paso. If any flooding does occur, it'll likely occur across West Texas.

As quick as this system arrives, it'll progress east away from us on Saturday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lingering rain showers Saturday morning across South-Central New Mexico as the system lifts out. Some of the higher elevations of the Sacramento Mountains may even see an overnight rain/snow mix. Conditions on Saturday will be cooler, with lowland highs only reaching the lower 60s. We'll also see breezy west winds behind the cold front, generally 15 to 25 mph through the afternoon hours.

Cool but dry weather expected Sunday-Monday with another shortwave ridge in place. Temperatures will run 4 to 8 degrees below normal for mid-November, with lowland highs in the lower 60s and some chilly mornings in upper 30s/lower 40s.

Another shortwave trough moves across the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Recent model runs (both GFS and ECMWF) have shifted this low further north, swinging it across the Four Corners. Any precipitation chances look to miss us to the north. NBM guidance still has mentionable rain chances for Southern New Mexico, but I expect that to disappear in the coming days.

Long term forecast, looking at a large-scale low pressure system over the Western US late next week. Lots of uncertainty with the evolution of this system, but looks like an active period. Both global models place the El Paso forecast area in a dry-slot, limiting QPF somewhat. Will keep an eye on this pattern over the next several days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VMC tonight with light, variable winds. Skies beginning clear, with high cirrus moving in after 10Z Friday morning, bringing skies to SCT-BKN250. Friday afternoon will feature SCT-BKN060 developing with scattered SHRA across all of S NM and W TX after 00Z. Periods of MVFR CIG/VIS are expected Friday night at KELP/KLRU due to rain and embedded TS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

No fire weather concerns through the period. Better moisture for Fri ahead of a disturbance with rain showers developing in the afternoon and seasonal temps. More widespread showers through the evening with a few thunderstorms possible. Rain is favored in SE areas. Winds pick up a bit from the S during the day, increasing further for Sat from W as a second storm system passes to the north. W winds 15-25 mph expected Sat afternoon. Low chance of rain/snow mix in area mtns on Sat. Cooler for Sat into next week as winds become lighter.

Min RHs range from 35-60% Fri, then 40-80% Sat. Vent rates will be mostly good to very good Sat, otherwise poor to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 71 50 65 / 0 30 80 0 Sierra Blanca 46 68 47 61 / 0 30 90 0 Las Cruces 45 66 45 62 / 0 40 60 0 Alamogordo 45 70 46 63 / 0 60 90 30 Cloudcroft 33 49 33 37 / 0 50 90 30 Truth or Consequences 43 63 44 63 / 0 30 30 0 Silver City 43 61 40 53 / 0 40 60 40 Deming 44 66 44 62 / 0 50 40 0 Lordsburg 47 67 43 60 / 0 20 50 0 West El Paso Metro 51 70 51 65 / 0 40 70 0 Dell City 44 71 49 66 / 0 40 90 10 Fort Hancock 50 77 51 70 / 0 40 80 0 Loma Linda 46 66 46 58 / 0 40 80 10 Fabens 48 75 49 67 / 0 30 70 10 Santa Teresa 46 68 47 64 / 0 50 70 0 White Sands HQ 50 68 50 64 / 0 50 80 0 Jornada Range 42 67 44 63 / 0 50 70 0 Hatch 44 69 45 66 / 0 40 50 0 Columbus 47 69 48 65 / 0 40 40 0 Orogrande 44 70 47 63 / 0 60 80 10 Mayhill 35 62 38 51 / 0 40 90 30 Mescalero 36 62 38 49 / 0 50 90 40 Timberon 35 58 35 49 / 0 50 90 30 Winston 36 59 36 54 / 0 20 40 10 Hillsboro 45 64 42 61 / 0 40 50 10 Spaceport 42 65 43 63 / 0 50 50 0 Lake Roberts 37 61 36 52 / 0 40 70 50 Hurley 41 63 39 57 / 0 40 50 10 Cliff 43 68 44 60 / 0 30 70 50 Mule Creek 42 64 41 54 / 0 30 50 40 Faywood 45 62 43 57 / 0 50 50 10 Animas 45 68 45 63 / 0 10 50 0 Hachita 44 67 43 62 / 0 40 40 0 Antelope Wells 45 68 45 62 / 0 10 60 0 Cloverdale 46 61 45 56 / 0 20 70 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.