textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 446 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Isolated showers this evening with additional showers and storms Sunday afternoon. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and gusty winds. - A few rain showers remain possible Monday/Tuesday, followed by dry weather the rest of the week ahead. - Warm October temperatures through Tuesday, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 80s. Cooler temperatures on the way late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The remnants of Rachel have merged/been absorbed into a larger trough, aligned along the West Coast. Well out ahead of the trough, moisture is being drawn northward with some hints of diffluence aloft over NM, Chihuahua, and Far West TX. The result is isolated showers, which have weakened some with the loss of daytime heating. The 00z EPZ sounding showed shallow CAPE with most of it rooted below the dendrite/ice growth zone (-10 deg C), so lightning was non-existent though a few cells still had some decent cores on radar. Shower coverage should continue to decrease through the rest of the night although chances will be non-zero.

The UL low will lift northeast with the right-entrance region of the jet moving over NM on Sunday. With continued moisture, this will lead to additional showers and storms, favoring areas along and east of the Rio Grande. The HRRR is on board with this scenario. Although the trough remains anchored to our west on Monday, favorable jet dynamics will wane with rain chances shifting toward AZ, possibly the Gila.

UL trough will still be anchored to our west on Tuesday, but remnant moisture from Hurricane Simon will be pulled far enough north to enter Texas. Chances of any precip for our CWA continue to dwindle, but a shower or thunderstorm from Simon could still clip parts of Hudspeth County.

The UL low will finally begin to lift out by Wednesday and Thursday with dry air completely moving into the CWA. As the low enters the Plains, it will force a cold front southward, pushing through the CWA late Thursday night, early Friday morning. Friday will be noticeably cooler. In terms of precip chances, both the GFS and Euro lag a piece of the trough behind, likely in response to the cold front, but the GFS reforms a closed low well to our SW, keeping us dry. The Euro keeps more of the trough back, closing it off of the Colorado River Valley, but that puts us in favorable moisture advection. A look at the LREF shows the Euro and GFS ensembles are both favoring their deterministic counterpart. NBM has some low to moderate POPs, which seems reasonable enough.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

SCT-BKN080 SCT-BKN150. Isolated BKN060 -SHRA, mainly over Otero County next couple of hours. Developing after 17Z west of the Cont Divide...isolated BKN060CB -SHRA/-TSRA, spreading as far east as the RG Valley through the afternoon, the east of the RG Valley in the evening. Influence of Pacific low/remnants of Rachel will increase winds this afternoon to southwest 15-25 knots. Wind gusts as high as 35 knots west of Deming from noon until around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 446 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Fire weather concerns continue at low levels for this week ahead. Modest amounts of tropical moisture continue across the fire zones today and again on Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop for this afternoon and evening. Monday could still see isolated showers/thunderstorms, mainly over the Gila/Black Range. Breezy southwest winds will develop for this afternoon. The remainder of the week will mostly dry. A back door cold front pushing in Thursday night create a dramatic wind shift to the east and winds will become quite gusty, especially near the Intl Border. Above normal temperatures will cool significantly Friday and Saturday to well below normal.

Min RH: Lowlands 28-35% through Tuesday, decreasing to 20-30% Wed/Thu. Mountains 35-50% through Tuesday, decreasing to 25-40% Wed/Thu. Vent rate very good-excellent through Tuesday, becoming fair-good Wed/Thu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 86 65 84 / 30 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 87 62 84 / 40 0 20 0 Las Cruces 60 82 59 81 / 20 10 0 0 Alamogordo 63 83 60 82 / 50 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 63 45 61 / 60 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 57 80 55 80 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 52 72 49 71 / 20 20 0 0 Deming 58 82 56 82 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 57 79 55 78 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 85 65 83 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 64 88 63 86 / 60 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 68 92 67 91 / 50 0 10 10 Loma Linda 61 80 60 78 / 40 0 10 0 Fabens 67 89 66 87 / 40 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 64 84 62 83 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 85 63 84 / 30 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 82 59 82 / 30 10 0 0 Hatch 61 84 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 62 85 60 85 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 84 60 82 / 30 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 78 51 75 / 40 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 75 50 72 / 50 0 10 0 Timberon 51 72 49 70 / 50 0 10 0 Winston 48 75 46 73 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 56 79 54 78 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 58 81 56 80 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 71 41 69 / 30 20 0 10 Hurley 52 76 50 75 / 10 10 0 0 Cliff 49 77 45 76 / 50 30 10 10 Mule Creek 45 72 41 71 / 40 30 0 20 Faywood 55 75 53 75 / 10 0 10 0 Animas 59 80 56 80 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 57 80 56 80 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 82 56 82 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 55 74 53 74 / 20 30 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.