textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Hot temperatures again today. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the lower valley. - Continued rain chances for today and Friday with the area mountains being favored with more isolated activity in the desert lowlands.

- Elevated to possibly critical fire weather concerns this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

High pressure that was overhead today will start to shift southward over northern Mexico for Thursday. This will help shave off a couple of degrees from high temperatures tomorrow, but it will still be another hot day. Heat Advisories will still be in effect tomorrow for southern Dona Ana, El Paso and the lower valley. Slightly better moisture pushes in for Thursday with PWs nearing an 1", which would be the 75th percentile for this area this time of year. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again with the high terrain being favored and isolated to potentially scattered storms in the lowlands. Moisture is still expected to be over the area Friday, maybe slightly less moisture but should be enough for another round of afternoon thunderstorms again.

A continued gradual "cooling" trend expected through the weekend and early next week. High pressure weakens and redevelops over the Gulf states by Saturday before expanding over the SE US. A large upper trough over the PacNW this weekend will shove out moisture for western areas of the CWA, leaving the best moisture east of the Rio Grande, and especially over far west TX. Similar set up for Sunday as well. If a trigger for storms is present, then we could get thunderstorms. Typically the Sacramento Mtns and the Gila region/Black range will begin thunderstorms early in the day, and thunderstorm outflows will kick off storms in the lowlands... but if the mountains can't produce storms, then storms in this area becomes unlikely (unless there's some other trigger available). In addition, this weekend does look a bit breezier than what we've been seeing recently. Winds of 10-20 mph are probable through the afternoons, but not nearing advisory level criteria. This will increase fire weather concerns though.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected beneath variable skies with bases as low as 100. Winds will be variable this morning but will become westerly this afternoon with speeds of 10 to 15 knots along with gusts to 25 knots. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon and evening. The main concern will be gusty winds with BLDU though confidence on timing, occurrence, and severity of impacts is too low to warrant inclusion in this TAF cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 535 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions this weekend...

Enough moisture is in place for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development, but low-level moisture will be scant with min RH values in the mid to upper teens. This means any showers or storms will have a risk for dry lightning starts and gusty winds. Highs will be above normal though a littler lower than yesterday. Friday will see a little less moisture, but temperatures will decrease as well, which means min RH values will be similar. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible again but with lesser coverage and mainly east of the Rio Grande.

This weekend an upper level trough will approach New Mexico, bringing an increase in wind speeds, especially along and west of the Rio Grande. Latest guidance shows winds of 15 to 20 MPH for Saturday, increasing a bit more for Sunday. These winds will combine with min RH value below 15%, and rainfall rates are expected to be too scant the next to days to allow for much, if any, fuel recovery. Thus, we will be close to Red Flag criteria for Saturday and especially Sunday. At this time, confidence we will get there is low to moderate for Saturday and moderate for Sunday. I will let subsequent shifts decide on whether we join our neighbors in Arizona on issuing fire products.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 103 77 102 / 20 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 69 98 68 97 / 10 30 40 10 Las Cruces 68 100 69 99 / 20 0 10 0 Alamogordo 69 100 71 100 / 20 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 54 78 55 77 / 20 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 68 100 70 99 / 30 10 0 0 Silver City 63 93 64 91 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 67 102 69 101 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 66 99 68 98 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 101 76 100 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 70 102 70 101 / 20 20 20 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 74 103 / 20 30 40 0 Loma Linda 69 95 69 94 / 20 10 10 0 Fabens 73 104 74 102 / 20 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 100 72 99 / 20 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 76 100 / 20 0 10 0 Jornada Range 68 100 69 100 / 20 10 0 0 Hatch 68 103 70 102 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 72 102 74 101 / 30 0 10 0 Orogrande 68 99 69 99 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 59 89 60 89 / 10 20 0 0 Mescalero 57 88 59 88 / 20 10 0 0 Timberon 56 86 56 85 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 58 91 59 90 / 20 10 0 0 Hillsboro 66 98 67 96 / 20 10 0 0 Spaceport 64 100 66 99 / 30 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 93 59 91 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 63 96 65 95 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 64 99 64 97 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 62 94 63 93 / 30 0 0 0 Faywood 65 95 66 94 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 66 99 68 99 / 20 10 0 0 Hachita 65 99 67 98 / 20 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 98 68 97 / 30 10 10 0 Cloverdale 64 93 65 92 / 30 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.