textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Dry through Friday, then a chance of rain showers this weekend. Best chance for scattered rain showers will be Sunday and Monday along the International Border. - Temperatures will run slightly above normal for early February over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Current weather pattern features a ridge of high pressure aloft extended N/S along the Rocky Mountains and a Pacific low off the California coast. Warm, southwest flow ahead of this Pacific system will allow temperatures to increase on Friday. Lowland highs will reach into the upper 60s, and a good chance El Paso hits 70 degrees Friday afternoon.

Favorable fetch of moisture transport toward the El Paso region this weekend as the low progresses toward Baja. Plumes of subtropical moisture will be transported northward ahead of the low, with diffluent flow and weak shortwaves within the 500-700 mb layer generating isolated rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation coverage will be very spotty, favoring the International Border due to the more southerly track models are predicting with the Pacific low. Rain chances are only 20-40% for most locations and any rain that does fall will be light (almost everywhere <0.25" storm total QPF). Temperatures will also remain warm through the weekend, with snow limited to only the high mountain peaks above 9000 feet. Pacific low will cross over northern Mexico on Monday, with a few lingering rain showers possible.

Dry weather returns next Tuesday as the system exits and broad high pressure hangs over the southern US. This will keep temperatures rather warm midweek next week, with lowlands highs in the lower 70s. Global models are in good agreement in another round of precipitation chances sometime around Valentine's Day weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Skies FEW180, FEW250 overnight then SCT-BKN200 across most of NM tomorrow. Surface winds generally 010-050 AOB 5 knots tonight, then 100-150 at 05 to 10 knots Friday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through Friday. An upper low will be tracking to our south over the weekend into early next week which will help draw up some moisture and raise RH's into the 20s and 30s. There will be some rain chances across the area, but areas south of Interstate 10 will be the favored locations for better rainfall amounts. Winds will be light through much of the period, but toward the middle to later part of next week some breezy days are expected. Vent rates remain poor for most areas but parts of the Gila will be fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 39 70 46 69 / 0 0 0 20 Sierra Blanca 36 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 34 65 42 65 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 33 66 41 67 / 0 0 0 30 Cloudcroft 29 51 34 48 / 0 0 0 30 Truth or Consequences 36 66 43 64 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 36 63 41 63 / 0 0 0 30 Deming 35 68 43 68 / 0 0 10 40 Lordsburg 34 67 42 68 / 0 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 41 69 48 68 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 30 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 37 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 39 65 46 64 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 37 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 35 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 20 White Sands HQ 39 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 31 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 32 70 41 70 / 0 0 0 30 Columbus 38 68 46 69 / 0 0 10 30 Orogrande 34 66 41 66 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 31 65 37 62 / 0 0 0 20 Mescalero 30 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 30 Timberon 33 58 38 57 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 28 62 34 60 / 0 0 0 30 Hillsboro 37 66 43 65 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 30 67 39 65 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 32 63 37 62 / 0 0 0 40 Hurley 33 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 30 Cliff 32 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 30 Mule Creek 33 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 20 Faywood 37 64 43 64 / 0 0 10 40 Animas 34 69 42 70 / 0 0 10 20 Hachita 34 67 41 68 / 0 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 35 69 43 69 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 39 65 45 65 / 0 0 10 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.