textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms in mountain areas starting today persisting through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms over the lowlands, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday/Friday 101-106.

- Increase in thunderstorm coverage by Sunday and Monday with somewhat cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The ever-so-persistent high pressure will still be overhead the northwest part of NM today but will begin meandering westward over SW AZ and SoCal tomorrow. Moisture stays trapped under the high each day through Saturday allowing for daily thunderstorm chances. Scattered mountain storms will initiate over the higher terrain, spreading outflows to the lowlands which may trigger off some isolated storms. PWs will range from 1" to around 1.2" with the better moisture being seen Friday and Saturday. Weak steering flow and insufficient shear with this high pressure will lead to slow storm motions which will add to the flooding threat with storms. By Friday and into Saturday the high looks to shift north over Utah and Colorado. An inverted trough looks to cross the Gulf and may head up to the Borderland by the end of the weekend and early next week which could bring more moisture (PWs of 1.2" - 1.3") and areawide rain chances. High temperatures stay near seasonal average today and tomorrow but hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday, but Friday looks the hottest right now. Temperatures in El Paso and the lower valley Thursday and Friday will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria (highs of 105F+).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon but should stay away from terminals. Expecting most of the activity to be along and west of the Continental Divide today. Generally light afternoon breezes expected today out of the southeast then becoming calm overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Near critical to critical min RHs persists in the lowlands today through Saturday with values generally 11-20%. Area mountain min RHs will generally be 20-35%. 20 foot winds each afternoon will stay light at 5-10 mph with calm winds overnight. Daily thunderstorm chances exists for the mountains each day through Saturday with isolated storms in the lowlands. Sunday and early next week looks potentially more active with more areawide rain chances with a tropical system potentially heading over the area at this time. This will increase min RHs above critical thresholds Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near seasonal today and tomorrow but even hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday with Friday being the hottest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 99 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 94 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 67 97 70 101 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 68 97 73 100 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 51 74 54 77 / 0 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 69 98 71 101 / 0 20 20 10 Silver City 64 92 65 94 / 10 40 20 50 Deming 66 100 68 103 / 0 10 20 10 Lordsburg 69 99 70 100 / 10 20 20 10 West El Paso Metro 74 99 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 97 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 71 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 71 100 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 97 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 98 78 102 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 68 98 72 101 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 69 101 71 104 / 0 10 10 0 Columbus 72 101 74 104 / 0 10 10 0 Orogrande 67 96 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 86 59 88 / 0 20 10 60 Mescalero 54 86 57 88 / 0 20 20 30 Timberon 52 82 55 85 / 0 10 0 30 Winston 59 89 60 92 / 10 50 20 30 Hillsboro 66 95 69 98 / 10 30 20 30 Spaceport 65 97 68 100 / 0 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 92 59 95 / 10 50 20 50 Hurley 63 95 65 97 / 10 30 20 40 Cliff 64 98 65 100 / 10 30 30 40 Mule Creek 62 94 63 97 / 20 30 30 30 Faywood 64 93 66 96 / 10 20 20 40 Animas 69 99 71 101 / 20 20 20 0 Hachita 67 98 69 100 / 0 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 69 99 71 100 / 0 10 20 20 Cloverdale 65 93 66 94 / 10 20 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.