textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Increased storm activity through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances decrease next week with drier and warmer conditions expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Summer time Rex Block pattern continues over much of the US. Cut- off low over the southern Texas Panhandle/Permian Basin continues to very slowly drift west. Upper high persisting over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Some wrap around moisture with the upper low will fill in the drying slot that had resided over the CWA the past few days. This will help in getting PWs well above an inch.

Friday through Sunday...as mentioned above, PWs increase significantly, as high as 1.3-1.5 inches by Friday night and Saturday. Mid level cooling should also help with destabilization. In other words we are expecting an increase in thunderstorm activity across the area. Threat of flooding will increase, especially if the PWs approach 1.50 inches (150% of normal).

Monday and beyond...models are coming closer together as we sail through the new week ahead. Older runs had diverged, with GFS moving moisture out of the forecast area by Monday, while the ECMWF held onto the moisture much longer. Latest set of models are getting a bit closer in solution, though GFS still about one day faster with the drying pattern. Monday looks to be transition day back to drier pattern for GFS as it begins moving low/inverted trough west toward Arizona, this would still keep thunderstorms around but best coverage would be out west toward Arizona. ECMWF still keeps the inverted trough over the CWA for another active convective day on Monday. GFS definitely drier by Tuesday with PWs back below one inch and chances of rain limited to the far west. ECMWF much like the GFS on Monday, with inverted trough out over the western CWA with best chances of rain in that area. By Wednesday, both models have the upper high oriented east-west over Colorado and the southern Plains with the southerly flow and moisture off to our west. Temperatures through the week remaining below normal until around Wednesday/Thursday with fewer clouds and much less rain activity, when they should climb back to seasonable levels.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Light SE surface winds AOB 06 knots this morning with skies FEW- SCT150. SCT-BKN100 cumulus developing after 18Z, first over mtns then across S NM and W TX. Isolated TSRA 20Z-04Z, with VCTS included for all TAF sites. Storms will be capable of gusts up to 40KT and temporary +RA. Low confidence in direct TS impacts, will need to amend TAFs and add more detailed timing this afternoon as storms develop. VMC overnight after 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (60-80% coverage over GNF/LNF each afternoon) through Monday. Storms will be capable of sudden, gusty winds, burn scar flooding, and new lightning starts. Min RH 40-60% with very good overnight RH recovery. Moisture and rain chances will decrease fire weather risk over the weekend.

Moisture shifts west next week, leading to a decrease in storm coverage Tuesday into the latter half of the week ahead. Isolated storms will still be possible across western NM and Gila NF, but overall drier and warmer. ERCs are near or below normal due to recent rains, therefore minimal fire growth is expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 92 71 91 / 60 30 70 60 Sierra Blanca 63 87 62 86 / 40 50 60 60 Las Cruces 65 90 65 89 / 50 30 50 50 Alamogordo 66 90 66 88 / 50 40 50 70 Cloudcroft 49 68 50 67 / 40 70 50 90 Truth or Consequences 68 91 69 90 / 20 30 40 50 Silver City 60 83 60 82 / 20 40 40 90 Deming 66 94 65 93 / 30 20 50 60 Lordsburg 64 88 65 89 / 20 10 30 50 West El Paso Metro 72 91 71 89 / 70 30 70 50 Dell City 67 91 66 90 / 30 60 60 50 Fort Hancock 71 94 70 92 / 40 50 60 70 Loma Linda 64 84 64 83 / 50 50 60 60 Fabens 70 93 69 92 / 60 40 70 50 Santa Teresa 68 89 67 88 / 60 30 70 50 White Sands HQ 71 91 71 90 / 50 50 50 60 Jornada Range 66 90 66 89 / 40 40 50 60 Hatch 67 94 67 93 / 40 30 40 50 Columbus 70 93 70 92 / 50 30 60 50 Orogrande 66 89 65 87 / 50 40 50 60 Mayhill 54 79 54 79 / 40 90 40 90 Mescalero 53 79 54 78 / 40 60 50 90 Timberon 51 76 51 75 / 50 60 50 90 Winston 57 82 57 82 / 30 60 40 80 Hillsboro 64 89 64 88 / 30 40 50 70 Spaceport 64 90 64 89 / 30 40 40 60 Lake Roberts 55 84 55 84 / 20 60 40 90 Hurley 60 86 61 86 / 20 40 40 80 Cliff 63 89 63 88 / 20 40 30 80 Mule Creek 60 85 60 85 / 20 40 30 80 Faywood 62 86 62 85 / 30 40 50 80 Animas 65 87 65 88 / 30 30 30 50 Hachita 64 88 64 88 / 30 30 40 50 Antelope Wells 66 87 65 88 / 30 50 40 60 Cloverdale 62 81 62 82 / 30 50 40 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.