textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 401 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Dry conditions and light winds persist through the work week with typical mid-November temperatures.

- Next system arrives late on Friday, bringing rain chances and high elevation snow through Saturday night.

- Slight chance of showers Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

High-amplitude upper ridging will keep fair weather and near normal temperatures in place over the next couple of days. But another southern stream disturbance will bring the risk of rain showers to the area again late Friday into Saturday.

This system looks to move into northern Baja Friday afternoon, with a slight negative tilt orientation that will enhance upper level diffluence out ahead of it. This should result in light rain showers developing by Friday afternoon in SW New Mexico, despite the stronger forcing for lift lagging back to the west.

700 mb temperatures will drop to around the freezing mark as the main trough (or loosely-closed mid level low) moves overhead Saturday morning. Some rain/snow mix is possible in the highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains again, with perhaps some light accumulations above 9500 feet again by Saturday morning.

Precip chances will hang back over the Sacramento Mountains Saturday morning, before pulling out to the east. The main trough steering this system will keep precip chances going in northern New Mexico, and we'll likely see clouds hanging back over the higher terrain in our area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 401 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Winds east 7-10 knots becoming variable AOB 7 knots after 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Low fire weather concerns continue as near normal temperatures, relatively high RH values, and light winds continue. Also, another chance for precipitation looks to arrive late Friday into Saturday, especially east of the Continental Divide.

With several pile burn projects, vent rates are presumably the main concern. They will be some what limited outside of SW New Mexico on Thursday, with improvements in the higher elevations on Friday, and area-wide Saturday, despite the precipitation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 70 50 71 / 0 0 0 30 Sierra Blanca 45 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 40 Las Cruces 44 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 44 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 31 48 32 49 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 43 66 43 65 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 39 64 43 61 / 0 0 0 30 Deming 42 69 44 67 / 0 0 0 30 Lordsburg 42 69 47 67 / 0 0 0 30 West El Paso Metro 49 70 51 70 / 0 0 0 30 Dell City 42 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 46 73 50 76 / 0 0 0 40 Loma Linda 45 64 46 65 / 0 0 0 40 Fabens 43 72 49 73 / 0 0 0 40 Santa Teresa 46 69 46 68 / 0 0 0 20 White Sands HQ 50 69 50 69 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 39 69 42 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 40 72 43 70 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 44 70 47 69 / 0 0 0 30 Orogrande 45 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 34 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 20 Mescalero 34 60 35 61 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 35 58 35 58 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 34 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 20 Hillsboro 43 66 45 65 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 40 68 42 66 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 30 65 37 61 / 0 0 0 30 Hurley 38 66 41 64 / 0 0 0 30 Cliff 35 72 42 69 / 0 0 0 30 Mule Creek 33 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 20 Faywood 41 65 44 63 / 0 0 0 20 Animas 40 70 45 68 / 0 0 0 30 Hachita 41 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 40 Antelope Wells 43 68 45 68 / 0 0 0 40 Cloverdale 45 65 45 62 / 0 0 0 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.