textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Today we will see hot temperatures across the region with high temperatures well above the triple digit mark across the lowlands.

- For this afternoon and evening we will see the chance for thunderstorms west of the Continental Divide which could produce areas of blowing dust along Interstate 10 west of Deming.

- We will continue to see lower rain chances this week into the weekend, with the best chances for rain in the Gila region and along the New Mexico and Arizona border.

- High temperatures will continue to run above average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Our weather pattern hasn't changed much, so our weather hasn't changed much. The upper level ridge continues to be centered near the New Mexico and Arizona border. This position keeps us mostly dry with high temperatures well above average. The only area to see a decent chance for rain will be the Gila Region. Like the last few days, thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon in the higher terrain of the Gila Wilderness and move to the southwest. There is a good chance we will see another round of blowing dust in and around Lordsburg so I have issued a dust advisory there for this afternoon. For Wednesday, we won't see much of a change in the upper level ridge location, so our weather will again be very similar with a chance for thunderstorms and blowing dust west of the Continental Divide and high temperatures well above average. The highs on Wednesday will come down a degree or two so the heat advisory has been limited to the Rio Grande Valley below El Paso.

For Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge will drift north and be centered near the Four Corners region. This will allow a little more moisture in the region. So we will see at least a slight chance for thunderstorms across the most of the area Thursday and Friday afternoon and evenings. High temperatures both days will still run 4 to 7 degrees above average. For the weekend, the upper level ridge to our north will sweep drier air into the region, so rain chances will go back down and be mainly limited to the Gila Region. High temperatures will continue to run near the triple digit mark both afternoons. Not much change for the start of next week, so we will continue to see limited afternoon and evening thunderstorms with high temperatures running near 100F.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

We will see similar weather today, as we saw yesterday. Our ceilings today and tonight will be unlimited, the exception to this will be in the Gila Region and near the New Mexico/Arizona border we we could see some mid and high ceilings associated with thunderstorms. We will see another afternoon with occasional low end gusty winds generally from the south. The thunderstorms out west will likely produce strong outflow boundaries, which will impact the Lordsburg Airport (KLSB) and could also possible impact KDMN as well. Thunderstorms and outflow winds will die down by late evening and we will have light winds through the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Our moist monsoon season has been struggling and this week won't be much different. Min RH through this weekend will range from the mid to upper teens in the lowlands to the 20's in area mountains. The dry conditions will limit our thunderstorm activity each day. The best chances for rain each afternoon will be in the Gila Region. By Thursday we will have enough moisture across the area to give the whole region at least a slight chance for rain, but then drier air returns and our rain chances for this weekend will again be mainly limited to the Gila Region. Each afternoon, any thunderstorms that do form will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds. Our winds away from the thunderstorms look to continue to stay below critical levels through the start of next week. Vent rates will be good over the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 102 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 98 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 99 71 100 / 10 0 10 0 Alamogordo 71 100 72 100 / 0 10 10 30 Cloudcroft 54 77 54 76 / 10 20 10 70 Truth or Consequences 73 99 72 99 / 40 10 10 10 Silver City 64 92 64 93 / 40 40 20 60 Deming 69 100 70 101 / 20 0 10 10 Lordsburg 68 97 69 99 / 30 10 20 20 West El Paso Metro 76 101 77 102 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 70 100 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 105 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 73 102 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 20 10 Jornada Range 71 100 72 100 / 10 0 20 10 Hatch 72 103 72 103 / 20 0 10 10 Columbus 73 101 74 102 / 20 0 10 10 Orogrande 70 99 71 99 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 59 88 59 87 / 0 20 10 50 Mescalero 59 88 59 88 / 10 20 20 70 Timberon 57 86 57 85 / 0 10 10 50 Winston 63 91 62 91 / 50 30 10 50 Hillsboro 69 98 69 98 / 30 10 10 20 Spaceport 70 99 70 100 / 20 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 59 91 59 92 / 50 60 20 80 Hurley 65 95 65 95 / 40 30 30 40 Cliff 67 98 66 99 / 30 40 30 50 Mule Creek 65 93 64 94 / 30 50 30 60 Faywood 67 94 67 95 / 30 20 20 30 Animas 68 98 69 99 / 40 0 40 20 Hachita 67 97 68 99 / 40 10 30 10 Antelope Wells 67 96 68 98 / 50 10 30 10 Cloverdale 63 90 64 92 / 70 10 50 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley.