textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records.

- Isolated thunderstorms limited to the mountains for today. Dry elsewhere.

- Slight chances of thunderstorms return Thursday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The saying goes, big bubble no trouble. But for us the next week will be dominated by a big bubble of high pressure aloft which will give the lowlands of our area high temperatures at or above 100F. The first part of the week looks the hottest with high temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average. We will be near record high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. The reason for this late summer heat is a big area of upper level high pressure that will wander around New Mexico and Arizona this week into the start of next week. The upper level ridge will really limit convection each afternoon, with only the mountains having a slight chance for thunderstorms each day through this weekend. The upper level ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico for Monday through Wednesday and that is when we will see our hottest temperatures. We may need a heat advisory for some of the lowlands of Texas some of those days.

For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift ever so slightly to the west into eastern Arizona, which will allow a degree or two to come off of our afternoon high temperatures and may give the mountains a little better chance for rain. It remains to be seen how for into the lowlands thunderstorms may be able to creep for the end of the week. For next weekend, we will see more of the same as the upper level ridge drifts back toward southern New Mexico. Rain chances will be limited in area mountains next weekend and high temperatures will again creep to near record levels. We will likely start September out on a hot note, as the upper level ridge shows no signs of moving off or breaking down. So the triple digit heat will continue in the lowlands which is a little unusual for the month of September. For the climate record of El Paso, a little less than 2% of our 100 degree days have ever occurred in September.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW120/250. Winds will top out around 10 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots. Direction will be variable this morning and then again overnight tonight but will be from the southeast during the afternoon and early evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 518 AM MDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Abnormal warmth and dry conditions will persist through the period, likely lasting into September. Afternoon highs will run about 10 degrees above normal with lowland RH values in the lower to mid teens. Thunderstorm chances albeit low will be limited to the mountains. Winds will be light with good to very good venting.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 102 75 104 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 99 67 100 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 68 101 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 72 101 72 103 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 55 78 56 79 / 20 20 20 20 Truth or Consequences 71 100 72 102 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 64 95 65 96 / 20 10 20 0 Deming 69 102 70 103 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 70 100 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 75 102 75 105 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 70 102 70 104 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 74 106 74 108 / 10 10 10 0 Loma Linda 69 97 69 98 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 72 102 72 105 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 71 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 75 104 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 70 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 70 104 71 106 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 72 102 73 104 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 68 100 69 103 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 60 91 60 91 / 20 20 20 10 Mescalero 58 89 59 90 / 20 10 20 20 Timberon 56 87 57 90 / 20 10 20 0 Winston 62 92 63 93 / 20 10 20 0 Hillsboro 69 99 70 101 / 20 10 20 0 Spaceport 68 101 69 102 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 92 59 93 / 20 20 20 10 Hurley 65 97 66 99 / 20 10 20 0 Cliff 68 101 68 102 / 20 20 20 0 Mule Creek 65 97 66 99 / 20 20 20 0 Faywood 68 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 70 101 71 103 / 10 10 10 0 Hachita 69 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 67 99 69 101 / 10 10 10 0 Cloverdale 65 94 66 96 / 10 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.