textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Increasing moisture and a series of upper level disturbances will bring several days with improved thunderstorm chances. Storms may get off to a slow start this afternoon, but chances look to increase this evening and late tonight, especially near and west of the Rio Grande.

- The threat of localized flash flooding will spread across the area tonight into Friday, and may linger in Hudspeth County on Saturday.

- High temperatures will drop into the 80s across the lowlands by Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Upper high now over the southeast Gulf states. Ridging still nosing back toward southern New Mexico. Though moisture component is good over all the CWA, the best moisture still concentrates west of the RG Valley. Thus our early convection for this evening has been in that area. Hi res models show that changing though late tonight as isolated storms move into the eastern half of the CWA.

Tuesday through Thursday...the upper high moves back westward, to TexArk region by Thursday. Initially this rids the high center of the western ridge, so that deep moisture is better distributed across all of the CWA. PWs will be in the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the best days for area wide storms and the risk of flash flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Gila/Black Range for Tuesday, and other areas will have to be looked at for a potential watch (perhaps more so on Wednesday). Models have sped the high's westward movement up some, so by Thursday the high is close enough (TexArk area) that moisture may be nudged more out to the western CWA again.

Friday through the weekend...the upper high migrates down to southern Texas into Mexico. Meanwhile over our area the moisture/short waves gradually get entrained into a mid-latitude low and trough over the Great Basin. This will slowly shunt the moisture back east over the forecast area Friday for a brief uptick in storm activity. This trough will move across New Mexico Saturday. Drying will begin Saturday, though still enough moisture for isolate/scattered thunderstorms. Pattern recognition would suggest possible severe storms, but parameters don't look to much out of the ordinary. By Sunday, another Pacific low entering California will provide a dry punch into our area with very little chance of storms.

By Monday and Tuesday, both GFS/ECMWF show the California low moving over Nevada/Arizona, drawing up sub-tropical moisture and increasing the chance of rain again.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Plenty of convective debris and a few leftover showers around this morning. This will limit instability and likely result in a slow start to thunderstorm development today. However, upper level dusturbances rolling up from the south will likely bring a few rounds of evening and late night thunderstorms. There's a chance these storms will be preceded by blowing dust near the international border, including ELP, as outflow pushes south to north after 00Z. For ELP, thunderstorm chances increase after 01Z, with several high res models suggesting a second round coming in after 06-07Z. These same rounds will likely impact DMN and LRU an hour or two later. TCS will see an earlier risk of -TSRA rolling off the Black Range after 21Z, with a second round possible after 05-06Z. Confidence is highest down south, where the first round is handled with TEMPOs, followed by PROB30 for round 2. Crafting the TAF to account for preceding outflow and BLDU followed by TSRA was nearly impossible given the timing uncertainties and overlapping periods. Had it been a risk of BLDU alone, I'd have gone with a PROB30, as the risk is more conditional, but intead it was all grouped together in a TEMPO. If BLDU does push up from the south, visibility may briefly drop to IFR, lower than what is currently in the TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 606 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A steady cooling and moistening trend is expected this week as troughing over the west coast slowly edges out persistent upper level ridging. Wetting rain chances will increase through the week, with excellent overnight RH recovery becoming the norm. Below normal maximum temperatures will spread from west to east, and most areas will see highs running 3 to 5 degrees below normal by mid-week. Lowland highs in the 80s will be common. The main fire weather concern will be lighter low level winds beginning to have a negative impact on vent rates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 92 68 90 / 60 30 70 30 Sierra Blanca 64 91 63 89 / 50 30 30 20 Las Cruces 65 90 63 87 / 60 40 80 20 Alamogordo 66 92 63 88 / 50 70 70 40 Cloudcroft 49 68 48 66 / 40 80 70 60 Truth or Consequences 66 86 64 84 / 60 60 90 50 Silver City 60 80 58 79 / 70 70 90 50 Deming 64 90 61 87 / 60 40 90 30 Lordsburg 65 85 62 84 / 60 60 80 20 West El Paso Metro 70 92 68 89 / 60 30 70 20 Dell City 67 94 65 91 / 50 50 40 20 Fort Hancock 71 98 70 96 / 50 30 40 30 Loma Linda 65 87 64 84 / 60 40 60 40 Fabens 69 95 68 92 / 50 40 70 30 Santa Teresa 67 91 65 88 / 70 30 70 20 White Sands HQ 70 92 68 89 / 70 40 70 40 Jornada Range 66 90 63 87 / 60 40 80 40 Hatch 66 91 63 88 / 60 50 80 30 Columbus 68 90 66 88 / 70 30 80 10 Orogrande 65 90 63 87 / 60 50 70 40 Mayhill 55 81 54 78 / 50 80 60 60 Mescalero 53 79 52 77 / 40 80 70 60 Timberon 53 78 51 75 / 50 80 70 50 Winston 56 77 56 75 / 60 80 90 70 Hillsboro 64 85 62 83 / 70 60 90 50 Spaceport 64 88 61 85 / 60 50 80 40 Lake Roberts 56 79 58 79 / 70 80 90 60 Hurley 61 82 59 81 / 70 60 90 40 Cliff 63 86 63 86 / 70 80 90 50 Mule Creek 59 81 60 81 / 60 80 90 60 Faywood 63 83 61 81 / 80 60 90 50 Animas 65 85 64 86 / 60 60 80 20 Hachita 64 86 62 85 / 70 50 80 20 Antelope Wells 64 86 63 86 / 70 50 70 30 Cloverdale 62 81 61 82 / 70 60 60 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.