textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 934 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Dry conditions and light winds persist through the work week with typical mid-November temperatures. Some patchy lowland fog is expected again late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

- Next system arrives late on Friday, bringing rain chances and high elevation snow through Saturday night.

- Slight chance of showers mid portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 934 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Upper low now over northeast Texas with trough hanging back across the Big Bend. Moisture with the low is now well east of the area. Deep layer of moisture well south of our area persists, associated with the sub-tropical jet. Northerly mid-level flow and westerly upper-level flow has ushered in much drier air (KEPZ PW on 00Z sounding down to .43 inches). High amplitude ridge continues building in as the aforementioned trough dissipates ahead of the ridge. Main Pacific upper low over southern Gulf of Alaska is the driver of the building ridge as it digs southward over the next 48 hours. Thus through Thursday, expect mostly clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...Pacific low system moves to our area through this period. Main Gulf of Alaska low moves onshore of the Pac NW, while a secondary low forms much further south, moving across the northern Baja Friday afternoon and then northern Mexico/far southern New Mexico Friday night and Saturday morning, ejecting out ahead of the main trough. Decent moisture contained with this low as PWs approach or slightly exceed .75 inches. Expect some showers to develop west of the RG Valley Friday afternoon and spread eastward Friday night with the help of the surface cold front. Good cold air aloft (500mb temps cooling about 5 deg) will aid in supplying modest amounts of CAPE and slightly negative LIs. So can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm with these showers. Low over Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon should end most showers, but the main trough from the Pac NW low quickly moves across the CWA Saturday night and Sunday. Thus, the mountains could see a few more showers lingering into Sunday morning. Snow levels over the mountains Saturday around 9500 ft and falling to around 8500 ft overnight into Sunday morning. A couple inches of snow is possible at these elevations. Some breezy afternoon winds also possible Friday.

Monday through Wednesday...shortwave ridge transits across the area Monday behind the exiting trough. Next Pacific trough comes through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Main energy from this trough remains across Colorado and northern New Mexico with surface front through the area by Tuesday night. Chance of showers at this time limited to the mountains with breezy winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures remain below normal for this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Winds variable AOB 7 knots becoming mainly northeast 7-10 knots Wednesday afternoon. Note: models show some low clouds/fog forming southern Luna, southern Dona Ana, and El Paso counties late tonight-hence there is a non-zero chance that KELP/KLRU could see some overnight fog, but confidence still too low to include in TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1049 AM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

RH falls to the 20-25% range in portions of the Gila NF both this afternoon and again on Wednesday, but 20-ft. winds generally less than 8mph and very low ERC percentiles preclude wildfire spread risk. Generally poor ventilation rates today and Veterans' Day improve on Thursday, especially in the Gila. Vent rates trend up more broadly, to Fair to Good, for Friday to Sunday as rain chances return. A dusting of snow could occur on the highest peaks (above 10 kft.).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 68 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 30 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 68 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 68 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 69 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 47 69 48 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 45 70 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 73 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 43 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 45 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 70 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 35 65 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 67 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 32 65 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 35 66 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 39 69 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 71 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 69 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 35 73 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 29 70 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 68 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 69 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 42 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.