textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1002 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

- Dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Slight warmup over the Memorial Day weekend, with lowland highs in the lower 90s.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Memorial Day, with lingering chances Tuesday over the Sacramento Mountains. Storms will be capable of sudden rain and gusty outflow winds.

- Dry southwest flow aloft will keep skies mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday, with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Old upper low near Baja that drifted east to near the Mexican Chihuahuan Desert has dissipated with little or no signs of life left on satellite imagery this evening. In its place, weak ridging aloft has developed over New Mexico/Arizona for tonight and Sunday. Moisture in terms of both dewpoint and PW, has continued to slowly decrease throughout today and tonight, but should start seeing a slight uptick on Sunday.

Upper low well off the northern Baja coast will start influencing the area starting Sunday as it nears the Baja. As mentioned above, dewpoints do rise slightly, and several hi-res models show isolated thunderstorms popping up over the mountains Sunday afternoon. Then lead short-wave out ahead of the low approaches far southwest NM late afternoon into the evening on Sunday, giving the NM Bootheel a slight chance of thunderstorms later Sunday evening. Thus will tailor grid POPs with this in mind.

Monday looks better area wide for rain chances as the upper low rotates into Arizona and the sub-tropical jet lifts northward to just south of the CWA. Modest moisture increases, the east from the Gulf of America, and the west from the eastern Pacific, so that dewpoints are back into the upper 30s and 40s. CAPE values increase to around 300-700 J/kg and PWs rise as high as .80 inches. So rain/storm chances increase area wide; not much shear to write home about, but the CAPE values suggest a few storms could become strong in the east. For areas from the RG Valley east the window for rain looks to be Monday afternoon and evening. For areas to the west the window is smaller-likely just the afternoon as the sub-tropical jet brings dry-slotting just north of it into the western CWA. Dry-slotting overtakes most of the CWA Tuesday, but enough moisture lingers around in the far east so Otero/Hudspeth Counties could still see an afternoon thunderstorm.

Wednesday through Saturday...upper low exits to our northwest Wednesday as next Pacific low moves in over Nevada. The low moves very slowly, still over the northern Rockies by Saturday. Hence dry southwest flow around this low will persist over our area. Temperatures will remain seasonable. GFS does show small break-off low moving to just south of Arizona Saturday, drawing the dry-line into the eastern CWA and suggesting a chance of thunderstorms. However the GFS appears to be the outlier as the ECMWF/CMC give very little attention to this feature.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with SKC-FEW120. Developing after 18Z...SCT-BKN100. Slight chance of BKN080 thunderstorms over the mountains between 19Z-01Z. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots. After 18Z winds increasing to south 10-15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday with Min RH 8-15% and light south winds 5 to 10 mph. Strong afternoon mixing with heights 12K-13K feet and scattered cumulus. No precipitation expected. Very Good ventilation with transport to the NNE. No overnight weather concerns.

Increased surface humidity on Monday 20-30% along with greater cloud coverage. Moisture flow out of the south along with an approaching upper low will lead to scattered (60-80%) showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Storm coverage will favor areas along the east of the Rio Grande, including Lincoln National Forest and the Capitan Range. Main concern will be erratic, sudden outflow winds around storms. Rain rates will be on the lower end due in part to a more shallow mid-level moisture profile, thus lower than usual risk for burn scar flooding.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible for LNF again Tuesday afternoon, with the rest of Southwest New Mexico becoming dry again. Rest of the week looks dry with the return of dry air and breezy southwest winds. Currently not anticipating any Red Flags next week, but conditions will be Near Critical.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 50 Sierra Blanca 56 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 60 Las Cruces 54 91 61 87 / 0 0 0 50 Alamogordo 58 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 60 Cloudcroft 46 72 47 69 / 0 20 10 70 Truth or Consequences 59 90 63 83 / 0 0 0 60 Silver City 52 84 57 78 / 0 0 0 60 Deming 56 94 61 90 / 0 0 0 30 Lordsburg 55 90 61 86 / 0 0 20 50 West El Paso Metro 63 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 50 Dell City 55 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 60 Fort Hancock 60 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 60 Loma Linda 58 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 60 Fabens 58 94 66 93 / 0 0 0 50 Santa Teresa 56 91 63 88 / 0 0 0 40 White Sands HQ 66 92 71 89 / 0 0 0 60 Jornada Range 51 91 57 87 / 0 0 0 50 Hatch 56 94 62 89 / 0 0 0 40 Columbus 61 93 67 90 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 53 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 60 Mayhill 49 82 52 80 / 0 20 10 60 Mescalero 49 81 50 78 / 0 10 10 80 Timberon 47 78 49 76 / 0 10 10 70 Winston 49 82 52 75 / 0 0 0 70 Hillsboro 58 88 62 82 / 0 0 0 40 Spaceport 50 90 55 85 / 0 0 0 50 Lake Roberts 43 85 47 78 / 0 0 0 70 Hurley 51 87 57 81 / 0 0 0 50 Cliff 45 90 47 84 / 0 0 10 80 Mule Creek 39 86 41 80 / 0 0 30 80 Faywood 53 86 59 81 / 0 0 0 40 Animas 56 89 60 87 / 0 0 20 30 Hachita 56 90 61 87 / 0 0 10 30 Antelope Wells 56 89 60 88 / 0 0 20 20 Cloverdale 55 83 58 82 / 0 0 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.