textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures continue Saturday.

- A back door cold front will bring some breezy conditions Sunday morning and afternoon, producing wind chills in the 20s and 30s. West slopes of mountains will see the strongest gusts, up to 30 mph.Temperatures cool about 10-15 degrees for Sunday and Monday.

- Near record highs possible again by the middle of next week while precipitation chances hold near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

In the big picture, the persistent upper ridge over the eastern Pacific and Desert Southwest will continue through most of this forecast period. In the short term various models do show the high level moisture over SoCal and western Arizona to move over the CWA next 4-8 hours, likely giving broken cirrus. 850mb temps unchanged for Saturday from today's record/near-record heat, but high clouds likely will cut a couple of degrees off for Saturday.

Only significant feature to talk about is the moderate back-door cold front moving in late Saturday night and Sunday. Decent wind gust potential, especially along west slopes of mountains early Sunday morning to mid day from Dona Ana County east, and then out over Luna and Hidalgo Counties Sunday afternoon. Sunday morning wind chill temperatures could briefly drop down around 25-40 deg. As winds reach the Lordsburg Playa area Sunday afternoon, blowing dust could also develop along I-10 west of Lordsburg. Other item to watch is how much stratus/fog/drizzle can develop along the eastern upslope areas of the Sacs. Looking at model low-level RH and HREF cloud cover would suggest this exact set up Sunday morning into the afternoon, but as of yet the NBM/grids do not reflect this. Will suggest next shift possibly modify this. High temps Sunday/Monday much cooler than the recent several days, though temps still above normal. Sunday highs could be a bit lower than what the various MOS outputs show.

Weak upper low does cut through the ridge and over the area Monday night and Tuesday, perhaps with just an increase of higher clouds.

Rest of the week..Tuesday through Friday...upper ridge continues though very strong jet entering the NW U.S. will flatten the ridge out into zonal flow over our area. Temperatures warm back up to well above normal, and in fact by Wed-Fri, daily highs could be reaching record levels again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1005 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR through the period with SKC. Increasing SCT-BKN250 after 09Z. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots overnight, becoming west 7-10 knots after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1010 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

Warm and dry for one more day with near record highs on Saturday. Min RH's will generally be in the teens. A back door cold front moves through Sat night with gusty east winds over 30 mph on favored east slopes and near the playa. RH's will jump up into the 20s and 30s for a couple days behind the front with high temperatures about 10 degrees cooler. A warmup is expected starting Tuesday and will bring a return to near record highs and RH's in the teens by the middle of the week. Poor to low end fair vent rates for the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 41 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 35 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 71 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 33 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 25 47 28 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 36 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 69 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 73 37 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 38 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 43 60 40 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 73 34 56 29 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 37 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 38 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 38 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 41 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 28 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 72 32 63 30 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 39 62 38 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 31 59 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 69 27 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 64 28 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 62 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 68 28 57 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 70 38 60 36 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 26 60 26 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 70 26 63 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 71 35 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 73 28 69 29 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 71 24 65 23 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 70 39 59 37 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 73 38 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 72 36 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 75 38 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 71 43 60 39 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.