textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 550 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will lift up through Otero County in the next hour, and linger longer in eastern El Paso and much of Hudspeth County overnight.

- Although coverage will be reduced, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will linger on Friday afternoon and evening, especially near and east of the Rio Grande. The few storms that do develop could approach severe limits. - A quiet weekend is ahead.

- Deep tropical moisture returns Monday and Tuesday, with another upper level system dropping into southern California before sweeping across the desert southwest. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall potential will return, perhaps enhanced by tropical remnants from Polo, but there will be plenty of moisture around regardless.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1059 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Another busy night across much of the area. A wound-up closed upper low over Arizona is slowly lifting to the northeast, with a noticeable dry slot keeping southwestern New Mexico quiet tonight. An 80+ knot subtropical jet stream nosing into northern Sonora up towards southern New Mexico, with strong upper level divergence across our area. This, combined with weak upper level impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft, has led to several organized rounds of thunderstorms with torrential rain, all arcing into individual MCSs. The first two managed to more or less split around El Paso City, but are more or less merged together again, arcing from southern Sierra County, down the Tularosa Basin, and just finally shifting east of the El Paso-Hudspeth County line. Expect storms over Sierra County to weaken, with upscale growth across Otero and Hudspeth County. Another significant cluster of storms near Ahumada in Chihuahua will lift into south-central Hudspeth County after midnight. There's still an outside chance of a few storms popping up over El Paso in the next couple hours, as weak outflow boundaries from the earlier pre-merged complexes meet, but with the best upper level support shifting east, it's a fairly low chance.

Drier air aloft will result in lower thunderstorm coverage on Friday, especially in the central part of the CWA. The upper low in Arizona will graze northern New Mexico as a weakened trough during the afternoon, and a trailing vort lobe will work into Otero and Hudspeth Counties in the afternoon. Low level moisture will still be fairly deep near and east of the Rio Grande, contributing to moderate instability (SBCAPE 1000-1500 J/Kg). Expect we will still see isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon, some of them approaching severe limits with 25-30 knots of deep layer shear lingering. Sierra, Otero, and Hudspeth counties will be slightly favored.

Much quieter weather is on tap for the weekend.

Deep subtropical moisture will get pulled back into the area on Monday, running out well ahead of 'Polo', while an upper low drops into southern California again. Polo looks to track across Baja California and across the Sierra Madres towards us or the Big Bend area. The dynamics aloft associated with Polo are the bigger player than the moisture, which mostly gets washed out over Baja and the Sierra Madres. The GFS shows a modest jump in PWAT around El Paso Tuesday afternoon, from about 1.45 to 1.60 inches. The latter is a high-end value for us, but Polo or not, there will be plenty of moisture around for additional heavy rainfall. The dynamics aloft, as Polo weakens into an upper trough and strong vort max, are perhaps more impressive than its moisture potential. 500mb flow ahead of its remnant trough increases to 50-65 knots, so the severe potential shouldn't be downplayed. Right now, that area looks to mostly stay east and southeast of El Paso, but will need to be carefully watched. Otherwise, the return of thunderstorms with torrential rainfall will be the main concern Monday-Tuesday Night. Dry slotting on the south side of the "kicker" low will clear out the moisture for Wednesday. The 00Z GFS even looks a bit dry and breezy as lee troughing merges with whatever is left of Polo's low level reflection.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Early morning TSRA across SE NM, moving NE away from local TAF sites. Skies FEW-SCT020 SCT-BKN050 this morning, with some clouds topping mtns. A few hours of MVFR CIGs possible at KELP through 16Z. Conditions becoming VMC area wide by midday, with FEW-SCT080 and surface winds 120-160 at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. TS coverage will be very spotty this evening, mostly east of KELP over W TX and SE NM. No mention of TS in current TAF cycle due to low confidence in direct impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Moisture remains in the area with Min RH values in the mid 30s-mid 50s in the lowlands and Black Range. These values reach up to 85% in the Sacramento Mountains. Thunderstorm coverage predominantly impacts areas east of the Rio Grande this afternoon with Hudspeth and Otero getting the bulk of precip. Sierra may see a few showers late this evening. Drier air moves in over the weekend causing Min RHs to fall to the mid 20s and 30s on Saturday. Tropical moisture will return early next week increasing those values on Monday and Tuesday. Winds today and tomorrow will stay light as they move out of the east-southeast in the afternoon. Ventilation rates range from Poor to Fair over the forecast area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 64 84 65 86 / 20 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 57 83 59 84 / 30 10 10 10 Las Cruces 61 81 61 83 / 10 0 0 10 Alamogordo 59 82 59 85 / 30 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 80 60 82 / 20 0 0 10 Silver City 55 78 56 79 / 10 0 0 20 Deming 60 84 61 86 / 10 0 0 10 Lordsburg 60 84 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 63 84 64 86 / 10 0 0 10 Dell City 59 86 59 88 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 89 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 59 78 62 81 / 20 0 0 10 Fabens 63 87 64 89 / 20 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 62 83 62 85 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 82 65 85 / 20 0 0 10 Jornada Range 60 81 60 84 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 61 84 61 86 / 20 0 0 10 Columbus 63 86 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 80 59 83 / 20 0 0 10 Mayhill 49 78 49 79 / 20 0 0 10 Mescalero 48 73 48 75 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 48 71 48 73 / 30 0 0 10 Winston 49 75 50 76 / 10 0 0 20 Hillsboro 58 81 59 82 / 20 0 0 10 Spaceport 57 80 57 82 / 20 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 49 77 50 78 / 10 0 0 20 Hurley 55 80 56 81 / 20 0 0 10 Cliff 57 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 55 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 57 80 57 81 / 10 0 0 10 Animas 61 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 60 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 61 86 62 87 / 10 0 0 10 Cloverdale 59 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.