textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Quiet weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures.

- Increasing chances for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday, with an upper level disturbance moving through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 956 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Temperatures will drop through the rest of the night as the shortwave trough moves past New Mexico. Some lowland desert spots in the Tularosa and Jornada could fall into the upper 30s, though no new freeze areas are expected. High temperatures for Thursday will run about 2 to 5 degrees below average (upper 60s-low 70s), with the exception of the Lower Valley, which will run about 1 to 2 degrees above seasonal averages (mid to upper 70s). Winds will be generally from the north at 5 to 10 mph, and conditions will be relatively dry.

Temperatures will fall again on Friday, close to 4 to 6 degrees below average. A deep trough and weak southeasterly push or backdoor cold front will bring increasing chances for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday. The GFS has caught up with the ECMWF with cutting off the trough into a cutoff low and slowing it down over the region Friday night and into Saturday, increasing the QPF to around 0.1 for the lowlands. The next couple of runs should see the QPF increase, so we will need to keep watch for how heavy this rain event will be. PWATS at this time for Friday and Saturday are hovering around 0.6", so flooding is unlikely to be a risk, though it can't be ruled out if the QPF gets heavier. Dry weather returns on Sunday as an upper-level high moves into the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 956 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the period as skies remain clear. Winds through the day will blow predominantly from the north at 5 to 10 kt. KDMN could see some gusts up to 20 kt around 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low fire weather concerns as lingering effects of rainfall keep ERC values high. Slightly below normal temperatures the next few days will also promote strong radiational cooling at night, and excellent RH recovery even in the lowland deserts, while afternoon minimum RH values stay above 25 percent in the low elevations, and 40 percent at high elevations.

An upper level disturbance will bring some light rain chances to the area this weekend, favoring the higher terrain as usual, but also lowlands east of the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 50 71 50 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 71 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 44 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 68 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 49 30 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 44 64 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 39 62 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 67 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 41 67 46 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 71 52 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 71 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 78 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 66 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 75 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 69 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 68 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 67 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 45 70 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 70 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 46 66 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 39 59 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 39 61 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 38 58 33 56 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 34 59 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 42 63 43 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 64 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 39 69 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 36 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 41 62 43 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 69 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 43 67 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 70 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 66 47 64 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.