textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

- Drier conditions with breezy southwest winds on Thursday, leading to fire weather concerns. Quiet weather Friday and Saturday with mostly sunny skies. Lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s, slightly above average for mid May.

- Breezy southwest winds again next Sunday and Monday, creating Critical fire weather conditions. Slightly cooler temperatures with lowland highs in the upper 80s. No precipitation expected over the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Upper ridge exiting to the east and stronger southwest flow aloft will flush out yesterday's moisture and lead to drier conditions on Thursday. This will result in much less low cloud coverage, with mostly high clouds left over. 994mb lee surface low centered over SE Colorado will extend a pressure gradient south across New Mexico and Far West Texas. Breezy winds out of the southwest Thursday afternoon, generally 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Could see some localized blowing dust near the usual sensitive areas, but nothing widespread. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler as heights aloft decrease, but still 5 to 10 degrees warmer than usual for mid-May with lowland highs in the lower-to-mid 90s.

Very stagnant weather pattern Friday through the weekend which will be consistently sunny, warm, and breezy each day. Longwave trough pattern across the Western U.S. with the primary jet flow to our north will lead to mostly benign conditions outside of fire weather concerns. Sunday and Monday look to feature the strongest winds of the period (20 to 30 mph), though still below Advisory criteria. A subtle cool down in temperatures will also occur, with highs right near normal Sunday into early next week (lowland highs in the upper 80s. No precipitation expected over the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Surface winds 240-280 at 5 to 10 knots overnight, with skies FEW150 SCT- BKN250. Breezy, consistent southwest flow tomorrow generally 240-270 at 15 to 20 knots. Peak gusts to 35 knots midday. No visibility restrictions expected at local terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 PM MDT Wed May 13 2026

Near Critical to Critical fire weather conditions on Thursday, with southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Min RH falling to 10 to 15%, with yesterday's moisture flushing out to the east. Still leaning toward upgrading the Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning for most of southern NM, including Lincoln National Forest. RH will easily reach criteria, but winds will be borderline. Decision to be made Thursday morning.

Very stagnant and consistent dry, warm weather pattern over the next several days. Wind out of the southwest each afternoon, slightly stronger again Sunday and Monday. Min RH 10 to 15% each day into next week. Repeating pattern of Near Critical to Critical conditions each day. Fuel conditions will dry quickly, lifting ERCs beyond the 90th percentile. Red Flags may be needed again Sunday and Monday. This pattern continues through midweek before our next precipitation chances sometime late next week. Temperatures will be a bit cooler Sunday onward, closer to normal for mid-May.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 95 70 93 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 63 91 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 92 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 70 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 65 92 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 57 83 54 81 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 61 93 59 91 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 59 89 57 87 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 93 68 91 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 60 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 65 87 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 66 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 92 62 90 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 93 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 63 92 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 63 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 66 94 64 92 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 65 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 83 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 55 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 53 78 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 51 83 48 81 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 62 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 60 91 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 52 83 49 81 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 57 86 53 84 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 52 89 50 87 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 52 85 50 83 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 58 86 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 58 90 55 88 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 60 90 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 83 56 82 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.