textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 102 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Mainly dry and warmer this weekend.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning with heavy rainfall leading to an increased risk for flash flooding.

- Skies clearing Wednesday, with a pleasant back end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Overview: Minimal changes required from the previous forecast package with overall dry conditions prevailing today and tomorrow, before the arrival of a tropical airmass on Monday.

Weekend...Ridging will maintain control over the region this weekend, with generally rain-free conditions prevailing. The exception being the eastern periphery of Hudspeth County which could see isolated convection later today due to a weak passing mid-level disturbance combined with residual moisture (PWATs ~1.2").

Monday-Wednesday Morning...Rain and thunderstorm chances increase significantly (60-90%) early next week in response to a moisture influx over the area as the remnants of Polo merge with an upper- level closed low passing over the Southwest. Models are indicating record PWATs (1.4-1.6") areawide Monday night into Tuesday which will make it for another very active period. Heavy rainfall and flooding remain the main threats with this next passing system, as soils are already saturated from this past week storms. Heavy rainfall could begin as early as Monday afternoon lasting through Wednesday morning before clearing. Accumulations will most likely range around 1-2" across southern New Mexico and far West Texas with localized amounts up to 3-4". Although we currently are under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall Monday and Tuesday, with the increased flood concern and higher confidence in the forecast, anticipate these to be upgraded in later packages. A Flash Flood Watch will also need to be evaluated at a later package. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates.

Wednesday afternoon into next weekend...Rain chances are forecast to come to an end through the day on Wednesday as the aforementioned upper-level system drifts eastward and much drier air filters in behind it as ridging builds back up. The rest of next week is shaping to be much quieter with plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

Flood Safety...Flash Flooding can escalate quickly. Highly urbanized areas, arroyos, and low-water crossings will face the highest risk of swift, dangerous water flows. Make sure to check the forecast often over the coming days for the latest updates and have at least two ways to received the Warnings. Never enter floodwaters, only 12" of fast-moving water can carry away a car. Turn around, don't drown!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the cycle at area terminals under a light and variable wind. High clouds will begin a return later tonight, but there will be no impacts to aviation.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low thanks to the rain we have received over the last few days. We will have a chance for thunderstorms today, mainly in area mountains and Hudspeth county. Min RH's will be at or above 30% through the end of the week and our surface winds will generally be below critical levels. We will be dry this weekend, but the threat for heavy rain returns to the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 40 Sierra Blanca 61 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 60 81 62 81 / 0 0 10 40 Alamogordo 60 81 61 80 / 0 0 10 40 Cloudcroft 46 63 48 62 / 0 0 10 50 Truth or Consequences 59 80 61 79 / 0 0 10 50 Silver City 58 78 60 76 / 0 10 30 60 Deming 60 85 62 84 / 0 0 20 50 Lordsburg 63 85 64 83 / 0 10 10 50 West El Paso Metro 63 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 40 Dell City 59 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 66 88 66 91 / 0 0 0 30 Loma Linda 62 79 62 79 / 0 0 0 40 Fabens 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Teresa 61 84 63 84 / 0 0 10 40 White Sands HQ 64 82 65 82 / 0 0 10 40 Jornada Range 60 82 62 82 / 0 0 10 40 Hatch 61 84 63 84 / 0 0 10 40 Columbus 63 87 64 86 / 0 0 10 40 Orogrande 58 79 59 80 / 0 0 10 40 Mayhill 51 76 52 75 / 0 0 10 50 Mescalero 50 73 52 73 / 0 0 10 50 Timberon 50 70 52 70 / 0 0 10 40 Winston 50 75 54 73 / 0 0 20 80 Hillsboro 60 81 63 80 / 0 0 10 50 Spaceport 57 81 60 80 / 0 0 10 40 Lake Roberts 52 79 54 75 / 0 0 20 60 Hurley 57 80 60 78 / 0 10 30 50 Cliff 58 85 61 82 / 0 10 20 60 Mule Creek 57 81 60 77 / 0 0 20 60 Faywood 59 79 61 78 / 0 0 20 50 Animas 63 86 64 85 / 0 20 10 60 Hachita 62 86 63 85 / 0 10 20 50 Antelope Wells 62 86 64 85 / 0 10 10 70 Cloverdale 61 84 61 81 / 0 10 10 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.