textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Much warmer today after a cool start this morning.

- High pressure aloft builds over the Borderland for the rest of the week. This will mean fair weather with dry conditions, and lighter winds. - Record-breaking warmth beginning Wednesday, and lasting through the weekend. Historic March heat Friday through Sunday, with lower to mid nineties across the desert lowlands.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 PM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Water vapor imagery showing classic, beautiful looking Rex Block high over the eastern Pacific this evening. The anchor high remains in place just off the central California coast. This feature will block any and all weather from having any chance of moving near our area over the next 7-10 days. Plenty of high level moisture spilling over the top of the ridge and down over New Mexico in the short term, meaning some cirrus still likely over head on Tuesday. Most of this moisture then disappears for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

The big news is the rapid onset of very warm (hot) temperatures. As the Rex Block high begins breaking down, the anchor high drifts eastward, settling over the Desert Southwest by Wednesday and beyond with increasing heights aloft. 850mb temps already increase by around 15 deg Tuesday, putting a rapid end to our seasonable temperatures of today. Thus, highs Tuesday climb back well above normal, and just keep going up from there. By Thursday and Friday into at least the weekend, temperatures will be around 20 degrees above normal; meaning highs 90-95 for the lowlands and 70-85 mountains. El Paso's record for earliest 90+ deg reading is March 18. There is an outside chance of us tying that earliest day, but more likely seeing our first 90+ on the 19th.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds AOB 8kts generally from S-SW with some variability this morning and tonight. SCT-BKN250 passing by from the north should thin out later today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 539 AM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Fire weather concerns will be mostly low through the forecast period. Not much in the way of impactful weather for the rest of the week as an anomalously strong upper high shifts over the region. This will result in warmer temps today with a continued upward trend into the weekend. Temps reach 20-25 degrees above normal Fri-Sun as mixing heights deepen and overnight recoveries become very poor. Winds will be modestly breezy today with elevated fire danger in the Lincoln National Forest due to ERCs reaching the 90th percentile. Winds shift northerly for Wed with pockets of elevated fire wx. Very dry conditions will persist through the week, allowing fuels to continue on their drying trend. Fair skies and no rain chances into next week as winds stay generally light.

Min RHs range from 8-20% today, dropping to 5-10% Thu onward. Ventilation will be good to very good in the mtns today, poor to good for the lowlands; then poor to good area-wide; improving to good to excellent by the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 51 88 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 46 83 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 47 85 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 41 86 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 86 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 47 81 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 88 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 85 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 87 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 40 87 46 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 47 90 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 48 89 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 46 85 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 53 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 37 87 40 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 42 90 43 93 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 87 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 37 85 42 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 75 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 77 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 41 81 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 85 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 86 37 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 84 33 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 83 48 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 33 89 34 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 30 86 31 89 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 83 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 86 51 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 85 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 82 56 86 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.