textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Thunderstorm chances will be pushed east towards the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County today, as drier and warmer air works in from the west.

- Hotter conditions with little to no chance for rain through the weekend as upper level ridging begins to strengthen. Mid-week could bring the hottest temperatures of the year so far.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1034 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Widely scattered convective showers have been blossoming over northern Mexico and just barely across the Rio Grande in the past hour or so. Meanwhile, a moderately strong outflow boundary is pushing down from the Tularosa Basin, and interacting with weaker outflow from the south. Expect some isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorms to develop around the Borderland over the next few hours as the boundary interactions overcome a capping inversion and allow us to tap into some weak-moderate instability aloft. Very localized torrential downpours will be possible, as storms will be fairly small in coverage.

Heading into tomorrow, drier low level westerly flow will cut back further on our thunderstorm chances, with a slight chance over the Black Range, and better coverage over the Sacramento Mountains and eastern Hudspeth County.

Drier and hotter conditions will settle in for much of next week. The only real question is where the strengthening subtropical ridge (596-598 dam) will drop anchor. Over Arizona, or closer to home? If it's the former, slightly cooler northerly flow aloft will take some of the edge off temperatures (for El Paso, around 101-104), and weak disturbances grazing the eastern edge of the ridge could pull in some moisture from the east and introduce the risk of isolated thunderstorms (though mainly east of the Rio). If the ridge shifts east, we'll wind up drier could be pushing over 105 to around 108. (To be fair, it's late June, the hottest time of the year climatologically-speaking, and we've gotten off pretty easy this summer so far).

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light winds this morning give way to modest breeziness this afternoon with gusts up to 20kts from W-SW. Drier air pushes storm chances east, keeping the terminals dry. An outflow may reach KELP in the evening from SE. Otherwise, no impacts expected from today's convection. FEW CU may develop this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Drier air moves into the region today, pushing storm chances east this afternoon. Virga showers or a dry lightning strike are possible in the Black Range with some cumulus buildup otherwise in FWZ110. Gusty winds and heavy downpours are hazards in the Sacramento's and Hudspeth county where moisture levels remain somewhat high. Modestly breezy west winds are forecast west of the Rio Grande with low RHs, resulting in some elevated fire conditions this afternoon. A drying and warming trend continues for the weekend with no chance of storms after today. Elevated fire weather is expected this weekend due to breezy west winds as fuels dry out. High pressure aloft sets up over the region for much of next week, pushing temperatures to 5-10 degrees above normal for midweek. Winds will be generally light.

Min RHs range from 12-20% today outside of FWZ113, which is 25-40%; falling to 5-15% by Sun. Ventilation will be fair to very good today, then good to excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 98 68 99 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 71 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 72 101 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 68 101 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 97 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 101 68 103 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 104 74 106 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 95 70 95 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 100 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 103 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 101 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 89 59 90 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 88 57 90 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 54 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 60 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 66 100 65 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 63 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 62 97 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 92 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 94 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 98 64 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 98 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.