textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 936 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Dry conditions and light winds persist through the work week. Patchy fog develops Tuesday morning.

- Next potential system arrives late this week which could bring more rain chances.

- Near-normal temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 936 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

Lower clouds linger along the Int'l border today associated with the low pressure over W TX. Very little chance of rain for Hudspeth County this afternoon as drier air filters in from the north and erodes much of the cloud cover. The low slides to the east by Tue and opens up into a shortwave, taking most of the moisture with it. Areas of low clouds/fog may redevelop Tue AM under the clearing skies and calm winds. Otherwise, mainly clear with light winds for Tue as upper ridging moves in from the west.

The ridge becomes more amplified Wed/Thu and shifts overhead, keeping us mainly clear with generally light winds. A weak backdoor front arrives on Wed, bringing modestly breezy N-NE winds that day.

A shortwave trough pushes in from the Pacific by Sat associated with a negatively tilted longwave. Increasing clouds are forecast for Fri ahead of the disturbance, followed by a low chance of rain Fri night-Sat. Global models and ensembles have sped up the system, so Sun now looks dry. Mostly light rain showers are forecast with minimal threat of flash flooding. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out as the LREF shows modest instability Fri evening along with PVA. Most likely rain amounts are <0.1" as southern areas are favored to see precip. Snow levels will be high (9-10kft) during the event, so accumulations are not expected, although a rain/snow mix can be seen on the highest elevations through Sat. The shortwave departs to the east on Sun, leaving us with another ridge of high pressure to end the period. Temperatures hold near normal, cooling slightly for the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 936 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

Low clouds hang around this afternoon, favoring KELP with MVFR CIGs at 025-030. Cloud bases rise slightly by the evening then thinning out around 0z. Low clouds/fog may develop early Tue AM, most likely near KDMN. Confidence is too low for any mention of fog or mist for this TAF cycle. Any fog mixes out around mid- morning. Winds AOB 6kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 936 AM MST Mon Nov 9 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the week. Light winds for the rest of today with high RHs outside of the Gila. Lingering low clouds down south this afternoon with areas of fog developing overnight. Trending drier into midweek with mainly clear skies as RHs remain above critical thresholds. Light winds continue through midweek, although a weak front brings some breeziness from the N-NE on Wed. Winds of 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph are forecast for Wed in the Sacs. No chance of rain until Fri night-Sat when a wx system brings low rain chances. Temps will be near normal.

Min RHs range from 40-60% on Tue for S and E areas, 20-40% NW; then 20-45% area-wide through Fri. Vent rates will be mostly poor through Thu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 48 69 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 45 64 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 42 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 44 67 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 49 35 50 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 42 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 39 65 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 41 68 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 68 48 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 47 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 63 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 47 72 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 43 67 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 49 69 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 68 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 44 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 44 67 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 64 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 35 61 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 34 58 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 34 64 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 42 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 67 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 67 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 71 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 67 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 65 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 42 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 40 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 43 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 65 44 66 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.