textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 944 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

- Dry conditions and light winds will persist through the weekend and into the mid portion of next week.

- Seasonable temperatures Friday and Saturday, warming to well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

- Lighter winds turning easterly Wednesday and Thursday for a slight cool down back to near normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 944 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Forecast period looking very subdued, even more than last night at this time, as our couple of shots at precip look even slimmer now. Sub-tropical jet with plenty of high level moisture is beginning to drift southeast as upper trough/northwest flow increase over the area. All this due to the building upper ridge over the west coast. Cirrus overcast should be south of the CWA by daybreak Friday. Northwest flow will continue Friday and Saturday, resulting in temperatures becoming static near seasonable levels.

By Sunday and Monday ridge axis will drift east of the area and we will become under a light southwest influence aloft. GFS continues to show a somewhat noticeable trough/upper low tracking across northern Mexico. Meanwhile, the ECMWF brings across a much weaker feature. Would not rule out a slim chance of a shower over Hudspeth or even El Paso Counties, but grids do not currently reflect this. Pattern change should also be good for a 5 to 7 degree warmup, with the first well above normal temps since Jan 22.

Our other shot at precip from earlier models was a strong upper trough dropping down out of the northern Rockies. The models are now showing the trough much more neutral-oriented rather than positively tilted. Thus it looks more progressive; just brushing our eastern CWA, as a Rex-block ridge forms over the west coast. Trough is strong enough to turn surface winds easterly and bring in some cooler air (temps back to normal), but not near as much cold advection as the previous couple of days model runs had shown.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 944 PM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SCT150 BKN-OVC250, becoming SKC-FEW250 after 12Z. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots, becoming east/northeast 7 to 10 knots after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 950 AM MST Thu Jan 29 2026

Minimal to no fire concerns are forecast through the period. Afternoon min RH values will be driest this afternoon but will increase through the weekend. Afternoon winds will top out around 10 MPH. Vent rates will remain poor in the lowlands but will vary in the mountains from fair to good for Friday. This weekend vent rates will drop to poor in the mountains. By Monday, vent rates will begin to improve again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 33 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 28 54 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 29 57 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 24 55 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 20 43 20 42 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 31 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 30 56 30 57 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 30 60 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 27 59 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 35 59 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 23 53 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 31 62 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 31 52 32 52 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 30 61 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 30 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 33 56 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 25 57 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 25 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 32 60 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 22 53 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 22 54 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 21 51 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 23 49 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 22 55 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 30 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 22 57 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 59 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 27 58 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 22 63 23 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 20 60 19 61 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 32 55 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 28 60 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 28 58 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 30 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 56 35 57 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.