textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Drier and hotter through Thursday with many lowland areas exceeding 100 degrees. Heat Advisory in effect for most of El Paso County and the lower Rio Grande Valley through Thursday.

- Returning moisture bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, with better chances east of the Rio Grande.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026

An elongated ridge running from Arizona to the central Gulf coast will keep our temperatures above average through the end of the week. High temperatures in the lowlands Wednesday and Thursday will run 5 to 7 degrees above average. This is warm enough to warrant a heat advisory for much of El Paso county and the Rio Grande Valley of Hudspeth county. The position of the upper level ridge will make all the difference on our temperatures for Friday through Sunday. Right now it looks like the upper level ridge will retreat to the east a bit and this will allow some moisture to slip back into the region. High temperature for this weekend will drop back closer to normal with a chance for rain both afternoons. But if the ridge strengthens and remains in place, we will stay dry and our triple digit heat will continue. For now I will lean more toward the "cooler" solution, but we may need to adjust things if the ridge looks like it is anchored here a little longer.

For the start of next week, an upper level trough moving through the Midwest will squeeze the upper level ridge to our west and that will keep us from getting quite so hot. But the extended models are indicating that the upper level ridge will build right back into the region for the middle and end of next week. So if we do get a break from the 100 degree temperature it looks like it will only be for a few days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VMC through forecast period with skies SKC-FEW150 this morning. FEW-SCT130 this afternoon with dry conditions at local terminals. Surface winds 250-280 at 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots across SW NM in the evening. Light winds and SCT-BKN250 overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Near Critical fire weather conditions this afternoon with hot temperatures, Min RH 8-12%, and west winds 10 to 15 mph. Vent rates becoming Excellent by 11am, with transport due east. No rain expected today. Similar conditions on Thursday, with low humidity and northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Returning moisture will provide some relief to the critically low humidity Friday into the weekend, along with the return of rain chances. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, especially across Lincoln NF. Storms will be capable of new lightning starts and gusty outflow winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 78 103 78 101 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 69 99 68 94 / 10 0 0 30 Las Cruces 68 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 100 72 98 / 0 0 0 30 Cloudcroft 54 81 54 76 / 0 0 0 60 Truth or Consequences 68 100 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 94 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 104 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 101 75 99 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 68 102 68 97 / 0 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 74 104 74 102 / 10 0 0 20 Loma Linda 70 95 70 92 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 73 104 72 102 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 71 100 71 98 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 78 101 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 69 99 69 97 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 68 103 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 75 102 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 99 69 96 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 60 92 59 85 / 0 0 0 70 Mescalero 58 91 58 86 / 0 0 0 50 Timberon 56 86 57 82 / 0 0 0 50 Winston 59 93 60 89 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 67 97 69 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 64 99 65 97 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 56 95 58 93 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 63 96 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 100 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 95 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 96 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 66 97 67 96 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 64 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.