textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 445 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

- We will see cooler temperatures on Saturday and Sunday with highs running 3 to 5 degrees below average.

- There will be a chance for some light mountain rain or high elevation snow showers Saturday evening.

- Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

An approaching upper level trough has brought moisture, rain and lots of clouds to the area this evening. The thunderstorms will continue to move off to the northeast and should clear the area a little after midnight. On Saturday a second short wave will rotate across New Mexico and bring some rain showers mainly to area mountains Saturday afternoon and evening. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some rain mixed with snow above 8K, but no snow accumulations are expected. In addition to the mountain precipitation, we will see breezy west winds across the region Saturday afternoon. For Sunday the upper level trough will be to our east while an upper level ridge will be building into the west coast. This pattern will keep us dry, but cool. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will run 3 to 5 degrees below average.

On Monday an upper level short wave ridge will dash across New Mexico and that will keep us dry with less winds. Behind the ridge another upper level trough will begin to get organized just off the coast of California. As the trough approaches the area on Tuesday we will again see a chance for rain, mainly in area mountains. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday, will run just a degree or two below average. For the end of next week, we will see yet another upper level trough begin to approach the region. Right now it looks like most of the precipitation will stay to north of our area so there are not a lot of precipitation chances in the forecast. High temperatures for the end of the week will be near seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Some lingering light rain showers looks to continue into the afternoon hours today. Models continue to suggest some low clouds and perhaps some fog across the area this morning but confidence is too low to mention in the TAFs. If it does occur, it will burn off soon after sunrise. Cloud coverage will slowly decrease through the day becoming much clearer after 00Z. Breezy west winds expected areawide with speeds generally 15-20G25-30KT. Winds will stay a little elevated after dark (10-15KT).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 445 AM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RH values stay above critical thresholds each day. Lingering light rain showers possible through the day today. Min RHs increase today to 40-60% in the lowlands and 70-100% in the area mountains. Min RHs decrease slightly again Sunday due to dry conditions. Min RHs increase slightly Monday and Tuesday with values of 40-60% in the lowlands and 60-80% in the area mountains. Models are suggesting the rain chances we were seeing previously for Tuesday are dwindling and may just be mostly breezy conditions with low-end rain chances possible.

20 foot winds will be breezy with speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Sunday and onward, 20 foot winds remain light each day at 5- 10 mph. Temperatures stay below normal each day through mid-week next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 61 41 58 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 40 62 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 40 62 38 61 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 28 42 27 42 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 60 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 34 58 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 38 62 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 39 61 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 46 64 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 43 64 42 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 69 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 58 40 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 46 66 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 43 63 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 45 63 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 37 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 64 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 61 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 33 54 31 54 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 32 54 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 30 52 28 52 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 31 56 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 37 61 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 59 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 59 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 63 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 38 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 63 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 59 43 60 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.