textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 917 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 - Today's cool front brings breezy northeast winds and cooler temperatures through Thursday.

- Temperatures warming to above normal into the weekend as dry conditions persist.

- Chances for lowland rain and high mountain snow (20-30%) return to the Borderland Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 917 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Some breezy winds from the N/NE have accompanied this morning's cold front, shifting more easterly this afternoon as the sfc high settles into the Southern High Plains. Patchy BLDU and lowered VIS may be seen in the afternoon, most likely around Lordsburg and in far west TX where dust models are picking up on dust. West mtn slopes will also see gusty winds through the afternoon before subsiding this evening as the gradient loosens. The sfc high won't be very strong or cold, so temps will only be a few degrees cooler through Thu, right near normal. No precip is forecast from this frontal passage while we are underneath an upper ridge stretching from the Great Basin southeast-ward.

That Rex block breaks down later in the week, allowing a Pacific cut-off low to drift northward into SoCal. Some subtropical moisture will be scooped up ahead of it Thu night-Fri, but not enough to produce any precip for us. This system becomes elongated to our southwest into early next week with uncertainty about where the subtropical jet sets up. We'll see if the moisture tap is overhead or to our east and what sort of upper-level dynamics we have to work with downstream of the trough. Global ensembles are trending faster with this system early next week, pushing it through northern Mexico by Tuesday. Sun-Mon timeframe is most favored to see rain showers and high elevation snow as SW flow keeps temps warm. Snow levels hold in the 8-9kft range or higher, so only the highest peaks would see any snow accumulations. Quasi-zonal flow takes over into the middle of next week with dry conditions and afternoon breeziness forecast. Temps warm to 5-10 degrees above normal for the weekend, staying warm into midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 917 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gusty winds linger into the afternoon behind this morning's cold front, especially for KDMN and KTCS where gusts to 25kts persist. Winds shift E then SE by the evening and subside overnight to AOB 8kts. BLDU is not expected for any terminals this afternoon, but cannot be ruled out for KDMN and KELP. Mainly SKC forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 917 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For the rest of today, winds shift more easterly behind this morning's cool front, staying breezy at 10-20 mph along the I-10 corridor, lighter to the north. Clear skies and near-normal temps are expected today with good to very good overnight recoveries tonight. For Thu, winds become light except out west where breezy winds linger due to the persistent pressure gradient. Increased cloudiness into Fri with no threat of precip. Light winds and warmer for Fri and Sat. A deep upper trough moves into the region early next week, bringing a low chance of rain and high elevation snow showers Sun-Mon. Temps remain above normal into the middle of next week.

Min RHs range from 20-35% this afternoon, except FWZ110 which is 12-20%; then 12-25% areawide Thu-Fri. Ventilation will be fair to good today, then mostly poor through Fri; mostly good for FWZ110 on Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 34 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 29 58 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 30 59 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 29 59 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 22 46 28 49 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 32 60 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 30 57 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 31 62 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 60 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 36 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 26 60 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 31 65 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 31 56 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 31 64 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 31 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 35 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 28 60 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 29 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 32 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 29 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 25 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 24 56 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 26 52 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 23 56 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 31 59 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 27 60 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 26 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 28 58 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 27 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 62 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 31 57 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 32 61 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 31 60 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 31 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.