textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- There is a slight chance for thunderstorms in the Rio Grande Valley around El Paso and Las Cruces this afternoon and evening.

- Triple digit temperatures will return to the lowlands, peaking Wednesday and Thursday.

- Some monsoonal moisture looks to seep into southwestern New Mexico Thursday through Saturday for another chance of rain.

- The heat looks to return for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Drier air is trying to move into the region today. There will be a few weak waves caught up in the northwest flow aloft, which could kick-off a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly in the Rio Grande Valley around Las Cruces and El Paso. The main threat from any storms that get going will be strong outflow winds. For Wednesday through Friday our northwest flow aloft will push off to the east and an upper level ridge will build into the region. This ridge aloft will help heat us up and dry us out a little further. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will 4 to 7 degrees above average, which will push high temperatures in the Rio Grande Valley around El Paso and south into Hudspeth County to near 105 for a high, so I have issued a Heat Advisory for Wednesday afternoon for those region. Thursday will also be hot, but my confidence is not as strong for El Paso hitting 105 so I have kept the Heat Advisory limited to Wednesday and we will see what tomorrow brings to see if we need heat products on Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday, we will see the upper level ridge build across the region and then head out east. We will see just enough moisture work into the region and the back side of the ridge to give us a chance for thunderstorms area wide on Friday and east of the Rio Grande on Saturday. Then for Sunday much drier air will punch into the region, ending our chance for rain for a while. Then for the start of next week, the upper level ridge returns and we will again see hot temperatures return to the region. We may see the need to issue more heat products early next week. We will see, its June and its hot.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

We will have VFR conditions for today and tonight. For today there is a slight chance for a thunderstorm for KELP and KLRU. It is not enough of a chance to mention in the TAFs, so if one of the storms pops up near the airports we will update accordingly. Winds today will be light from the west, but outflows from a thunderstorm could give us some breezy and gusty winds this evening. The gusty winds will drop off tonight, but we will see more low end gusty winds Wednesday afternoon. Ceilings this afternoon into Wednesday will be unlimited, though this evening we may have period of high ceilings, BKN250, for a few hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026

We will be drier and warmer today and Wednesday. There is just enough moisture to give us a slight chance for a thunderstorm in the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon, which could produce some brief strong and gusty outflow winds. Min RH's this afternoon and Wednesday will be in the low to mid teens in the lowlands and near 20% in area mountains. Moisture will begin to creep back into the area for Thursday and Friday, but min RH's will still run in the mid teens in the lowlands and near 20% in area mountains. For the weekend, drier air will move back into the region. By Sunday, we will see very low min RH's near 5% in the lowlands and in the low teens in area mountains. Winds will be breezy on Wednesday and these winds along with the dry min RH's will give us near critical fire weather conditions for locations west of the Rio Grande Wednesday afternoon. Winds will be less of a problem for the end of the week, into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 105 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 100 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 101 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 54 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 30 Truth or Consequences 72 101 74 100 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 64 92 64 90 / 0 10 10 10 Deming 70 101 70 100 / 0 0 10 0 Lordsburg 69 97 68 95 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 75 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 66 103 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 105 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 96 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 67 101 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 104 70 102 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 77 101 75 99 / 0 0 10 0 Orogrande 67 101 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 40 Mescalero 57 90 58 89 / 0 0 0 30 Timberon 54 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 61 92 63 91 / 0 10 0 30 Hillsboro 69 98 69 96 / 0 20 0 20 Spaceport 65 101 66 99 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 58 93 58 91 / 0 20 0 30 Hurley 66 95 65 93 / 0 10 10 10 Cliff 64 98 64 96 / 0 10 10 10 Mule Creek 63 93 62 92 / 0 20 20 10 Faywood 68 95 68 93 / 0 10 10 10 Animas 67 97 65 95 / 0 10 10 0 Hachita 68 97 66 95 / 0 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 66 94 / 0 10 10 10 Cloverdale 63 90 61 88 / 10 20 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.