textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 931 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Better thunderstorm coverage Wednesday. Storm chances persist each afternoon favoring area mountains and western NM with lesser activity in the desert lowlands.

- Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with lowland highs in the mid to upper 90s; Friday and Saturday being the hottest days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A passing upper-level trough in the northern tier of the US is splitting the upper-level high in two today, with the western portion of high pressure redeveloping over the desert southwest. Northeasterly flow surrounding this new high pressure system will direct storm motion to the southwest beginning this afternoon. Sufficient moisture and lift from the passing trough will give the entire region a chance of thunderstorms. Area mountains have the best chance of scattered thunderstorms (30-60%) and the lowlands have an isolated chance for thunderstorms (20-40%) starting this afternoon and well into the overnight hours. Localized flash flooding and gusty outflow winds are the main hazards with any thunderstorms that develop, especially up in the mountains.

Conditions for Thursday will be very similar to today, though as the new upper-level high strengthens over Arizona and New Mexico, storm coverage is expected to slightly decrease for the lowlands on Thursday. This does not mean the risk of localized flash flooding and gusty outflow winds will be gone on Thursday.

Drier, continental air will mix in on Friday, leading to a downtick in storm activity for the lowlands. Storms will mainly be limited to the area mountains and the western edge of New Mexico on both Friday and Saturday. Friday and Saturday are also expected to be the hottest days of the week, with lowland temperatures running up to 10 degrees above average both days.

A new ridge is forecast to set up in the southeastern United States on Sunday, and both the GFS and ECMWF have a plume of moisture on the west edge of the ridge heading into our region. Both model runs have consistent moisture in our area from Sunday through the middle of next week. How much rain the region will get by mid-next week is uncertain as of now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Northeasterly winds will prevail throughout the observation period, and off-and-on -TSRA will be present this afternoon and evening. Storm motion will be to the southwest. Whether any one storm will impact any of our TAF sites is unclear as of now, and we will amend our TAFS as needed. Outflow winds near any thunderstorms could result in breezy conditions for several hours near the TAF sites. -TSRA may persist well into the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Fire weather concerns over the next several days will remain low. Min RH's today through the weekend will be at or above 20%. The winds will be well below critical levels, but thunderstorms could create some gusty outflow winds, especially this afternoon/evening and Thursday afternoon/evening. In addition, localized flash flooding will be a hazard with these thunderstorms. Ventilation rates will range from fair to good over the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 96 72 98 / 40 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 67 92 66 94 / 20 20 20 0 Las Cruces 68 93 67 97 / 60 20 10 0 Alamogordo 67 94 68 97 / 40 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 70 51 74 / 50 70 10 0 Truth or Consequences 70 93 69 96 / 40 20 10 0 Silver City 63 88 62 89 / 40 60 10 10 Deming 67 95 66 98 / 50 20 10 0 Lordsburg 69 93 68 93 / 50 30 20 0 West El Paso Metro 75 95 73 98 / 50 20 20 0 Dell City 70 96 69 99 / 20 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 73 99 73 101 / 20 20 20 0 Loma Linda 68 89 67 91 / 40 30 10 0 Fabens 72 97 71 99 / 30 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 70 94 70 96 / 50 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 73 95 73 97 / 60 30 10 0 Jornada Range 68 93 68 96 / 60 20 10 0 Hatch 69 96 68 99 / 60 20 10 0 Columbus 71 96 71 98 / 50 20 20 0 Orogrande 68 93 67 96 / 50 20 10 0 Mayhill 57 82 56 87 / 30 80 10 10 Mescalero 55 82 55 85 / 40 60 10 0 Timberon 54 79 54 83 / 40 60 10 10 Winston 59 86 58 88 / 30 40 10 10 Hillsboro 68 92 67 94 / 50 30 10 10 Spaceport 67 94 66 97 / 50 20 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 87 56 88 / 40 60 10 10 Hurley 64 90 63 91 / 40 60 10 0 Cliff 66 94 65 95 / 50 50 10 10 Mule Creek 64 91 63 91 / 50 40 10 10 Faywood 65 89 64 91 / 40 50 10 10 Animas 69 94 68 93 / 50 20 30 10 Hachita 68 93 67 93 / 50 20 30 0 Antelope Wells 67 92 66 91 / 50 40 30 20 Cloverdale 64 86 63 84 / 60 40 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.