textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Extremely hot temperatures today with triple digits common across the desert lowlands. Forecast high of 108F for El Paso, 106F for Las Cruces, and 109F to 110F in the Lower Valley.

- Scattered strong to severe storms possible Saturday afternoon and evening with damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and flash flooding possible. - Highs will be not as hot over the weekend, but triple digits return early next week. Expect continued daily thunderstorm chances mainly in area mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

One more day (for now) of hot weather. High temperatures this afternoon will continue to run at least 10 degrees above average. But the upper level ridge that has brought us the hot weather is drifting off to our west this afternoon and that will allow a little moisture to work in from the north to give us a little better rain chances this afternoon and evening. Then on Saturday that is when things start to get interesting.

Several factors are coming together to increase the risk for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain on Saturday. First the upper level ridge will be centered over northern Arizona. This will give us a north flow aloft. Anytime you get north (or south) flow it raises the concerns for training (one storm after another) storms especially in the mountains. At the surface we will have a washed out cold front just to our east which could help with some storm development, but the better storm maker, will be a short wave trough, that will drop south out of Colorado Saturday evening. Precipitable water values (PW's) will be in the 1.2 to 1.4 inches range, which is good but not great for flash flooding. Again though I think we will see multiple storms develop in the mountains and then drop south. One storm will pop-up and drop 0.50 of rain and then move south, followed by another storm, followed by another storm. The Flood Watch includes all of Otero and El Paso Counties and the western portion of Hudspeth County as storms form in the Sacs they will drop south into the lowlands. There is some indication that we may need to extended the Flood Watch into Dona Ana County as the mountains to the north of and east of Las Cruces may help enhance some of rainfall in that county. In addition to the heavy rain threat, we will see the potential for a few strong to sever thunderstorms. They main threats will be large hail and strong outflow winds.

For Sunday, the upper level ridge will be in about the same place, but we will have drier and more stable air move into the region so the rain threat will be lower. For Monday and Tuesday, the upper level ridge will be centered over central Arizona. This elongated ridge will allow some moisture to be pulled in from the east so we will see a little better chances for rain for the start of next week. The upper level ridge won't move much for next week, so we will continue to see a slight chance for afternoon evening thunderstorms, mainly confined in area mountains.

Looking at our high temperatures, today looks to be the last for our really hot weather. For Saturday and Sunday, we will see high temperatures still running a few degrees above average, which may allow a few locations to hit 100, but most locations will stay in the mid to upper 90's. With the upper level dropping a little further south into central Arizona for the start of next week, that will allow our high temperatures to creep a few degrees higher. So triple digit highs are back in the forecast for much of the lowlands for next week, though it does not look to be as hot as this week has been.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Like the last few days, we will have a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms today, but most of the thunderstorms will be confined to area mountains. The main threat, will be outflow boundaries that will push out from the thunderstorms today. Otherwise, we will see our surface winds come around to the east and we could see some low end gusty winds late this afternoon into the evening hours. For our ceilings, we will be mostly unlimited early this afternoon, but we will see high and maybe some mid ceilings develop this evening as thunderstorms get going.

Just to be aware. Thunderstorms will be more active on Saturday afternoon and evening. There will be potential for strong outflow winds along with hail and heavy rains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Very hot conditions are expected in the lowlands today with many locations seeing one of the hottest days of the year, so far. Afternoon RH values will dip into the mid to upper teens in the lowlands. Winds will be light with good vent categories. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon before pushing into the lowlands late afternoon into the evening. Saturday will not be as hot with higher afternoon humidity along with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday, drier and warmer conditions will return to most of the area. Thunderstorm chances will largely be held to the mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 78 99 74 98 / 40 30 60 10 Sierra Blanca 70 94 66 93 / 10 30 50 10 Las Cruces 73 98 68 96 / 40 20 60 0 Alamogordo 71 97 67 95 / 50 50 70 10 Cloudcroft 52 73 50 72 / 50 80 80 40 Truth or Consequences 74 98 70 97 / 20 20 40 0 Silver City 67 92 63 90 / 30 60 30 40 Deming 75 99 69 98 / 30 20 40 0 Lordsburg 73 99 70 97 / 10 40 40 10 West El Paso Metro 79 99 75 97 / 40 30 60 10 Dell City 73 97 70 97 / 20 30 50 10 Fort Hancock 78 102 74 100 / 20 30 50 10 Loma Linda 71 91 67 90 / 40 30 60 10 Fabens 77 100 73 99 / 30 30 60 10 Santa Teresa 75 97 72 96 / 40 20 60 10 White Sands HQ 77 98 72 97 / 50 40 80 10 Jornada Range 74 98 69 96 / 50 30 60 10 Hatch 74 102 69 100 / 30 30 50 0 Columbus 77 100 73 98 / 30 10 50 0 Orogrande 71 95 68 94 / 50 30 70 10 Mayhill 58 83 56 84 / 40 80 70 20 Mescalero 57 84 55 83 / 60 80 80 30 Timberon 56 82 54 81 / 60 80 70 30 Winston 62 90 59 89 / 20 60 30 20 Hillsboro 70 97 65 96 / 20 40 40 10 Spaceport 71 98 67 96 / 40 30 50 0 Lake Roberts 61 92 58 91 / 20 70 30 50 Hurley 68 94 64 93 / 30 60 30 20 Cliff 69 99 67 98 / 20 50 20 40 Mule Creek 67 95 65 94 / 20 40 20 20 Faywood 70 93 66 92 / 30 50 40 10 Animas 74 100 70 98 / 10 30 60 0 Hachita 73 98 68 96 / 20 20 60 0 Antelope Wells 73 97 69 96 / 20 20 60 10 Cloverdale 70 94 66 92 / 10 30 60 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.