textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Historic March heat through the weekend. Temperatures will peak Friday through Sunday, with lowland highs in the lower to middle nineties.

- Very dry conditions over the next several days with single digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire concerns for the time being, but some afternoon breeziness is possible Saturday and Sunday across the Gila Region and Black Range.

- A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures on Monday, albeit slightly. Temperatures look to tick upwards again towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a broad, dry ridge centered over Arizona. RAP analysis shows the max geopotential height under the high at 597dm, but a couple of RAOBS from Yuma Proving Ground in SW Arizona checked with 500 mb heights of 598 dm at 18 and 20Z. Very much a late May/June type pattern, but in mid-late March.

The high at ELP yesterday eeked out 90 degrees, tying the record for earliest 90+ reading. Considering 850mb temps look to be about 2 degrees (C) warmer today versus yesterday, and another 1C tomorrow, I bumped highs up a 1-2 degrees versus the NBM for the next couple of days. The NBM has crude bias correction, but that has its limitations when dealing with such a highly anomalous event. So, we may break our all-time March high (93) as early as tomorrow, then pad that by a degree or two Saturday or Sunday.

The lowest elevations of Hudspeth County could even reach 100, most likely along the Rio Grande below Fort Quitman, but we'll never know it given the lack of observations (or even people) down that way.

Sunday night's backdoor cold front still looks to arrive on time, but the latest GFS has it just reaching the Continental Divide and mixing out to the Rio Grande late Monday afternoon. So, we can say with confidence that'll push west of the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, but it's shallow enough that 90s will still be possible in far SW New Mexico on Monday, while El Paso and Las Cruces will probably dip into the upper-80s... still 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The mid-week shortwave over Colorado has trended weaker, and the ridge a bit stronger and centered closer to ELP. 90s are likely to return to El Paso on Tuesday, and while winds look a little lighter on Wednesday than they did 24 hours ago, that's near the end of the forecast period with considerable uncertainty.

A stronger backdoor cold front is possible late Thursday, but the ensemble ranges for highs on Tuesday at ELP have a 17 degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentile, so that's still up in the air.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Upper level high pressure has taken control of our weather, so for aviation weather that means lots of VFR conditions. We will have unlimited ceilings tonight through the day on Friday with light and variable surface winds. Temperatures will be at or above record high levels on Friday and through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A strong and sprawling upper level ridge will bring hot and dry conditions to the area through the weekend. High temperatures will range from 20 to 25 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday. At the same time, minimum RH values may drop below 5 percent in lowlands, and range from 7 to 10 percent in the higher terrain. winds will be fairly light through the hot and dry period, mitigating fire weather concerns. Some weak lee troughing in the Middle Rio Grande Valley may produce some gusts around 20 mph Saturday and Sunday afternoon over the Gila Region and the Black Range.

But, we'll reiterate that this stretch of hot and dry weather will allow fuels to dry rapidly, leading to higher wildfire risk for any future windy days in the days and weeks ahead.

A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures slightly on Monday. The risk of stronger east winds will be offset by the continued lee troughing that shifts north towards central New Mexico, reducing the pressure gradient in the SW portion of the state. We still need to keep an eye on Wednesday as a weak shortwave trough passes through Colorado. It's trended a little weaker, but there's still a lot of uncertainty with the details. Temperatures also look to return to the 90s across the lowlands, and we may well see 5% RH values again as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 95 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 90 58 92 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 50 91 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 92 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 71 50 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 91 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 94 50 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 92 47 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 56 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 45 94 46 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 47 97 49 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 87 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 95 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 91 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 58 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 40 92 41 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 95 45 98 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 94 55 97 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 90 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 85 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 41 82 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 40 79 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 85 46 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 45 92 46 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 29 88 35 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 90 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 39 94 39 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 90 35 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 88 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 92 52 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 92 53 95 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 92 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.