textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

- A Pacific cold front and upper level system will bring rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. A few bands of heavier rain will be possible, especially across West Texas.

- Breezy and cooler on Saturday, with lowland highs in the lower 60s. Isolated to widely scattered rain and snow showers will affect the Sacramento Mountains and parts of the Gila On Saturday afternoon.

- Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

A sharp upper level trough over Arizona is moving steadily to the east. Thunderstorms are common across southern Arizona into northern Sonora, ahead of the main vort max moving across the northern Gulf of California. Diffluent flow over southern New Mexico and a weak shortwave trough has lead to increasing convective shower coverage over south-central New Mexico, and more recently around El Paso. This activity is expected to intensify as it spreads northeast through the afternoon hours.

Near-term models have been fairly inconsistent with the details through the evening and overnight hours. It seems the current precip will be the main wave of precip, with a secondary area of showers and thunderstorms possibly moving into southern Dona Ana and El Paso Counties closer to sunset. Activity over Arizona looks to become weaker and more scattered as it shifts into southern New Mexico overnight, with some CAMS really inhibiting precip coverage later tonight. But, it seems wise to hold onto shower chances as long as the main trough axis is to our west. Also, the GFS has most of the area in the left exit region of a 100+ knot jet streak overnight, further favoring rain chances.

Some small hail could accompany stronger embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

Snow levels will drop to around 9500-10,000 feet overnight, with light snow accumulations possible in the highest elevations of Sacramento Mountains, though mostly around uninhabited high peaks.

A northern stream shortwave trough will roll across northern New Mexico on Saturday. Continued cyclonic flow and cooler air aloft will promote increasing cloud cover and convective shower chances over northern sections of the CWA Saturday afternoon. Scattered rain and "graupelly" snow showers will be possible over the Sacramento Mountains and the Black Range around mid to late afternoon, though no accumulation is expected. Elsewhere, expect breezy west winds across the lowlands, with some gusts around 35 mph at times.

Lighter NW winds will prevail on Sunday, with more sunshine, no showers, and temperatures remaining about 3 to 6 degrees below normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Band of showers lifting northeast across the area this afternoon and evening. Expect isolated embedded thunderstorms to develop in the coming hours, possibly impacting ELP with brief visibility restrictions. Otherwise, ceiling heights look to remain VFR, as does prevailing visibility in lighter showers.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Low fire weather concerns continue as ERCs remain low, and RH values are high. Showers and isolated thunderstorms to day into tonight will keep that trend going. Breezy conditions, with west winds gusting to 35 mph at times in the afternoon Saturday, will be of little concern given ongoing moist conditions and below normal temperatures. Some rain/snow showers are possible Saturday afternoon in the Black Range and Sacramento Mountains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 65 47 65 / 50 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 61 45 61 / 80 0 0 0 Las Cruces 45 62 42 62 / 30 0 0 0 Alamogordo 46 62 41 63 / 60 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 34 37 29 42 / 90 30 20 0 Truth or Consequences 45 63 41 61 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 40 53 35 59 / 30 10 0 0 Deming 44 62 40 63 / 30 0 0 0 Lordsburg 43 61 41 62 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 65 48 64 / 50 0 0 0 Dell City 49 65 44 65 / 80 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 70 47 69 / 80 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 57 41 58 / 50 0 0 0 Fabens 49 67 47 67 / 50 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 64 44 63 / 50 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 64 46 64 / 50 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 63 39 63 / 40 0 0 0 Hatch 46 66 40 66 / 30 0 0 0 Columbus 47 66 44 65 / 30 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 62 41 62 / 50 0 0 0 Mayhill 40 51 34 55 / 90 20 10 0 Mescalero 40 49 32 54 / 90 30 20 0 Timberon 39 49 31 54 / 90 10 10 0 Winston 37 55 32 57 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 42 61 37 61 / 40 0 0 0 Spaceport 44 63 39 62 / 50 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 52 31 59 / 40 20 0 0 Hurley 40 57 35 61 / 30 0 0 0 Cliff 45 60 37 64 / 30 10 0 0 Mule Creek 41 55 36 60 / 20 30 0 0 Faywood 43 57 38 60 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 44 63 42 64 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 44 62 41 63 / 40 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 62 41 63 / 30 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 56 41 59 / 40 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.