textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1104 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Thunderstorm chances expected through and Friday. Chances for isolated storms Saturday in the Sacramento Mountains, but dry elsewhere.

- Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible with storms. Continued risks for flooding from storms possible again tonight and Friday.

- Drier and warmer on Sunday through Wednesday with many lowland areas seeing their first 100 degree days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The synoptic pattern from yesterday continues to hang around our area tonight, so another afternoon and evening of thunderstorm activity is expected, albeit more disorganized with less coverage than yesterday due to some drier air aloft in the western part of our CWA. Nevertheless, it is expected to be another active afternoon. The moisture moves east on Friday as the dry air aloft pushes in from the northwest keeping storm chances out there more isolated. Higher PoPs remaining east of the Rio Grande on Friday and into Saturday as a lingering upper trough sits east of El Paso. Clouds will linger on Friday push out on Saturday.

A building high pressure system aloft will start to move into our area on Sunday, pushing out any remaining moisture and bringing drier air into our region. Models indicate that El Paso could see its first triple-digit air temperature on Sunday, but if not Sunday the chances are higher for Mon-Wed. While the temperatures will remain under the heat threshold for next week, high temperatures for El Paso and the surrounding areas will approach 105. Some easterly surges of moisture are possible as a result of this heat, so an isolated thunderstorm in the mountain areas east of the Rio Grande cannot be ruled out between Monday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions for the valid period, though convective cloud development is expected later this afternoon. A 30-40% chance of thunderstorms for KELP this evening, but KTCS, KLRU, and KDMN will be under 20% and no mention in the TAFs. Any MVFR conditions will be around any outflow boundaries that develop from nearby storms. Prevailing winds will be from the east-northeast, around 5-12 kts turning more to the south after 00Z as outflows move south to north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A couple more days of shower and thunderstorm chances as a slow moving upper low/trough linger over the region. This afternoon and evening look like a more down day before ramping up again Friday. Locally heavy rain and flooding will be the main impacts. Saturday storms will remain over the Sacs. As we go into next week, an upper high will be building in and temperatures will reach the warmest of the year with 100+ degree highs on the lowlands. RH's will be falling into the teens by Sunday and remain there into midweek. Winds will remain under 15 mph except near thunderstorm outflows through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 67 87 66 96 / 10 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 59 77 57 88 / 50 50 30 10 Las Cruces 59 89 59 95 / 10 20 30 0 Alamogordo 63 84 61 92 / 10 50 30 10 Cloudcroft 46 64 46 70 / 10 70 30 40 Truth or Consequences 63 89 63 95 / 0 20 20 0 Silver City 55 84 55 90 / 30 30 20 0 Deming 60 92 59 97 / 20 20 20 0 Lordsburg 61 92 60 97 / 20 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 67 86 65 95 / 10 20 20 0 Dell City 60 84 58 91 / 20 30 30 10 Fort Hancock 64 87 63 96 / 60 40 30 10 Loma Linda 60 77 59 86 / 30 40 30 0 Fabens 63 87 62 97 / 30 30 30 0 Santa Teresa 64 86 60 94 / 10 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 69 85 68 94 / 10 20 20 0 Jornada Range 61 86 60 94 / 0 20 20 0 Hatch 61 90 61 98 / 0 20 20 0 Columbus 64 90 64 99 / 20 20 20 0 Orogrande 61 82 59 91 / 10 40 30 0 Mayhill 51 76 51 81 / 10 50 20 50 Mescalero 50 75 50 81 / 0 60 30 30 Timberon 48 70 47 77 / 20 50 20 30 Winston 52 83 53 88 / 10 30 30 20 Hillsboro 60 87 60 94 / 20 20 30 10 Spaceport 58 87 58 94 / 0 20 20 0 Lake Roberts 52 87 51 92 / 30 40 20 0 Hurley 55 86 55 93 / 20 30 20 0 Cliff 55 92 56 98 / 20 30 20 0 Mule Creek 54 89 54 93 / 20 20 20 0 Faywood 57 85 57 92 / 30 20 20 10 Animas 60 92 60 98 / 20 10 20 0 Hachita 59 90 59 97 / 20 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 59 90 60 97 / 20 20 20 0 Cloverdale 58 86 57 91 / 20 10 20 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.