textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Increasing storm chances through Tuesday with a low threat of flash flooding.

- Just isolated, unorganized thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. - Increase in storm activity again Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures running around 3 to 8 degrees below normal all week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1003 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Upper high has drifted up over eastern Colorado this evening. Large areas of dry air have moved in, though one pocket of moisture sits just east of the CWA, while another patch of sub-tropical moisture has forced its way north over far southern New Mexico as deformation zone to our south weakens. Hence some later evening convection has been able to form over our southern zones of El Paso County over to Hidalgo County. Latest HRRR run shows this convection done by around 06Z-08Z.

Monday through Thursday...the pattern for much of the week ahead looks unsettled. By mid-week the upper high moves over South Dakota/Nebraska and an old cut-off low retrogrades westward back to Texas. This will not import much new moisture, but will allow residual moisture to remain over the CWA. Thus, Monday through Thursday, expect scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms to continue each day. Storms should be pretty random and mostly unorganized. PWs will remain around 1.0-1.2 inches (around 100-120% of normal) Monday and Tuesday, so a few storms could produce heavy rainfall and minor flooding. PWs fall to 0.8-1.0 inches Wed/Thur with even more isolated storms.

Friday through Sunday...retrograded upper low moves over west Texas and eventually the Chihuahuan Desert by Saturday and Sunday. Moisture (PW) reverts back to 1.0-1.3 inches through this period so expect an uptick again in thunderstorms. A lot of potential activity during this period will depend upon if/how many short waves rotate west across the broad cyclonic circulation of the upper low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Winds AOB 8kts this morning, then gusting to near 20kts this afternoon and evening from E-SE. Winds subside between 3-6z tonight. SCT-BKN150 progress to the W this morning over KDMN and should clear out by the afternoon. Like yesterday, isolated showers and storms develop in the afternoon, favoring KTCS. Further development is possible into the overnight. TS chances are about 10-20% for all terminals today, so any mention of thunder is left out of TAFs for now. Gusts to 30kts and heavy downpours may accompany convection.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 514 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the week. Moisture levels stay above critical thresholds with daily rain/storm chances. Another day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected today. The best coverage of storms looks to be across northern areas with heavy downpours and gusty outflow winds to 30 mph possible. Storm motion will be to the west again with modestly breezy winds at 10-15 mph from the east outside of outflows. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday. Rain chances increase a bit for Tuesday with a downtick for Wednesday and Thursday. A disturbance moves into the region late in the week, raising the storm and flash flood threat area- wide Fri/Sat. Temps remain below normal through the week.

Min RHs range from 20-50% through midweek. Vent rates will be fair to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 91 71 90 / 10 30 10 10 Sierra Blanca 61 83 60 81 / 30 40 10 30 Las Cruces 66 91 66 88 / 10 10 10 10 Alamogordo 65 91 64 88 / 10 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 48 69 48 66 / 10 40 10 40 Truth or Consequences 69 92 70 89 / 10 10 20 40 Silver City 59 86 60 82 / 30 40 30 60 Deming 66 92 66 90 / 20 10 10 10 Lordsburg 66 91 67 89 / 30 20 20 30 West El Paso Metro 72 90 72 88 / 10 20 10 10 Dell City 65 89 64 86 / 10 30 0 10 Fort Hancock 69 91 68 89 / 30 50 10 20 Loma Linda 63 84 63 81 / 10 30 10 10 Fabens 69 92 68 90 / 20 30 10 10 Santa Teresa 68 89 68 88 / 10 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 71 92 71 89 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 67 91 67 89 / 10 10 10 20 Hatch 67 95 68 92 / 20 10 10 20 Columbus 70 91 70 89 / 30 10 10 10 Orogrande 65 90 65 87 / 10 20 0 10 Mayhill 53 78 52 74 / 10 40 10 50 Mescalero 52 80 52 76 / 10 30 10 30 Timberon 50 77 50 73 / 10 40 10 30 Winston 58 85 59 81 / 20 10 30 50 Hillsboro 65 90 66 86 / 20 10 30 40 Spaceport 65 92 65 89 / 10 10 10 30 Lake Roberts 56 87 56 83 / 20 40 30 70 Hurley 62 88 62 85 / 30 30 30 40 Cliff 64 92 64 88 / 30 50 30 70 Mule Creek 62 88 62 84 / 30 60 40 80 Faywood 63 88 64 84 / 30 20 20 40 Animas 66 91 67 89 / 50 10 20 10 Hachita 65 90 65 89 / 40 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 66 89 66 88 / 50 30 20 10 Cloverdale 63 84 63 84 / 50 30 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.