textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 846 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Thunderstorm chances expected again Thursday and Friday. Chances for isolated storms Saturday in the Sacramento Mountains, but dry elsewhere.

- Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible with storms. Continued risks for flooding from storms possible again Thursday and Friday.

- Drier and warmer on Sunday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 846 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Not much change in the synoptic pattern, or the moisture distribution for tomorrow, from what we saw on Wednesday, so we expect another day with convective activity. Unlike yesterday, when we had a bit more organization, Thursday's storms look to be more due to heat destabilization, and not as much as off of organized outflows. We look to have nearly the same amount of moisture, and about the same instability, but we could see a bit of stability aloft as some drier air begins to move in over western areas. This could be a bit of a reduction in storm activity as a whole, but still expecting it across all parts of the CWFA.

For Friday, we see the moisture start to concentrate over eastern areas as the main lobe of the upper trough begins to push to our S and E, with moisture following it, and dry air spilling in behind it on N and NW flow aloft. However, even as far as Saturday, we don't see a good flush of moisture out of the area, as the upper trough lingers, and allows the moisture to remain over the easter areas. Thus, we will keep in rain/storm chances for areas east of the Rio Grande.

Sunday looks like the day we are able to finally push the moisture entirely east of our region with dry air back over the entire CWA. the upper trough/low will finally lift away to the NE as high pressure aloft begins to build in from the SW. We will trend sharply drier, and begin a warming trend into next week. It appears there may be a string of 100 degree days beginning Monday, and possibly as early as Sunday. Models do indicate the upper ridge, responsible for the heat, will shift east, and thus we shouldn't see extreme, or excessive heat, but still temperatures in the 100-103 range for El Paso. Also, it does appear that there will be some light easterly surges of moisture back into our eastern area, for slight chances for an isolated afternoon mainly mountain storm Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 846 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Generally VFR conditions, but with exceptions, with ISO, short-term MVFR conditions due to TSTM and SHRA, and possibly areas of BLDU in storms outflow boundaries. Skies quite variable with low CIGs 050- 080 in VCTY of TSTM, and reduced VSBY to 1 1/2SM in +RA or BLDU. Otherwise, FEW/SCT070-090 SCT/BKN110-130 BKN/OVC150-180. Winds quite variable with outflows offering gusts to 45 mph. Otherwise, general winds slacking to 5-12kts and mostly from the NE and E. Tomorrow, clearing morning skies, with some residual debris clouds at mid-levels. Convective CU redevelopment at/aft 17Z, with ISO/SCT TSRA development, mainly over area mtns by 18-19Z, and across the lowlands aft 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm chances continue each day through Friday but moisture and chances will slowly dwindle. By Saturday, the Sacramento Mtns has the best chance for storms but dry elsewhere. Sunday continues to look mostly dry but thereafter, models and guidance diverge. Thursday and Friday we can expect more flooding possible from storms. Min RHs tomorrow will stay above critical thresholds with values of 20-40% in the lowlands and 50-55% in the area mountains. Drier air pushes in from the west which will drop RHs to critical along and west of the Continental Divide Friday, but better moisture to the east. By Saturday, critical min RHs expanded eastward and looks to make it to the Rio Grande Valley with continued better moisture to the east. By Sunday, mostly dry conditions will allow the entire lowland area to dip into critical thresholds of 10-15%, with near critical RHs in the area mountains with values of 19-22%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 90 68 88 / 60 20 30 20 Sierra Blanca 58 83 59 80 / 60 30 40 50 Las Cruces 59 88 60 88 / 80 10 10 10 Alamogordo 61 87 63 87 / 50 30 10 40 Cloudcroft 45 66 46 67 / 50 70 10 60 Truth or Consequences 61 88 63 91 / 40 10 10 10 Silver City 54 83 55 87 / 60 60 10 30 Deming 59 93 60 95 / 80 10 10 20 Lordsburg 60 90 61 94 / 50 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 65 89 66 87 / 60 20 30 20 Dell City 59 88 60 86 / 60 20 30 40 Fort Hancock 64 91 64 88 / 70 30 40 50 Loma Linda 59 82 60 80 / 60 30 40 30 Fabens 63 91 63 88 / 70 20 40 30 Santa Teresa 61 87 61 86 / 70 20 30 10 White Sands HQ 68 88 70 88 / 80 20 10 20 Jornada Range 60 87 61 88 / 80 10 0 20 Hatch 61 91 62 93 / 80 10 10 20 Columbus 63 92 65 93 / 60 10 20 10 Orogrande 60 85 61 85 / 60 20 10 30 Mayhill 51 77 51 79 / 50 60 20 50 Mescalero 49 76 50 78 / 40 70 10 60 Timberon 47 73 48 73 / 60 50 20 60 Winston 50 81 53 85 / 30 30 10 20 Hillsboro 59 87 61 90 / 60 30 10 30 Spaceport 57 87 59 89 / 60 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 51 85 52 89 / 50 70 10 40 Hurley 55 85 56 89 / 70 40 10 30 Cliff 55 90 56 95 / 40 60 10 20 Mule Creek 53 87 55 92 / 30 50 10 10 Faywood 57 84 58 88 / 70 40 10 30 Animas 59 91 61 94 / 30 10 10 10 Hachita 58 90 59 92 / 50 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 59 91 60 92 / 20 20 10 30 Cloverdale 56 86 58 88 / 10 10 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.