textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1047 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

- Some isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Sacramento Mountains Sunday afternoon, as a backdoor cold front pushes in, bringing an uptick in moisture. Gusty winds will be possible.

- Breezy to windy conditions will overspread the area Sunday night as the backdoor front sweeps through the area.

- Warmer temperatures continue on Sunday, with only a slight cool down behind the front for Monday. Mid to upper 90s will be common in the lowlands next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

A weak upper level trough is scraping by northern New Mexico tonight, while a slightly stronger one near the WY/CO border will drop a little deeper on Sunday afternoon. This will result in some variable winds over the next 24 hours. We'll see some breezy N to NE winds Sunday morning, but they'll become lighter and more variable in the afternoon for most areas. East of the Sacramento Mountains, however, a stronger backdoor push will move in later in the day, bringing an uptick in northeast upslope winds, and a boost in low level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 40s).

Models, including CAMS have been inconsistent in the development of scattered convection over the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains in the afternoon. Suspect we'll see a few thunderstorms develop before they quickly move off into the eastern plains, and some isolated stronger wind gusts will be possible.

The backdoor front will push towards the Rio Grande Sunday evening, with breezy to windy conditions, especially along west- facing mountain slopes. The 00Z HRRR is producing particularly widespread stronger wind gusts in the 40-50 knot range. This seems a little overdone given the lack of a strong temperature gradient with the front, and the lack of widespread convection upstream that could otherwise produce some outflow to enhance things. Also, low-level winds only look to be about 35 knots. Something to watch, however.

Temperatures in the mid-90s again tomorrow (Sunday) will only drop into the upper-80s for the lowlands near the Rio Grande on Monday, with 90s holding on over SW New Mexico.

Temperatures will ramp back up quickly Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper-90s possible at ELP mid-week, all thanks to a lopsided upper ridge building over the area, which will slowly break down late in the week. No strong winds are expected next week, or significant rainfall chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

A backdoor cold front attempting to push into the area towards dawn will bring a brief period of N to NNE winds during the early morning hours, with a few gusts around 20 to 25 knots possible at LRU. But winds will become light and variable again by midday, as the leading edge of the front mixes out. A second push will bring some low level moisture in the Sacramento Mountains in the afternoon, kicking off some isolated showers and thunderstorms. Strong east to northeast winds will push across the area Sunday night, with gusts in the 20-30 knot range at most TAF sites... and with stronger gusts possible west of area mountain ranges.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Sat May 9 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions continue with dry air over the region. Rains last weekend dropped ERC values below 75th percentile, but recent drying over the past few days allowed ERC values to increase back to around 80th percentile.

Weather-wise, as mentioned above, elevated fire weather conditions will continue...mainly due to sub-critical RH values. RH values will continue trending down, with temperatures above average through the period. In terms of winds, winds will remain light to low-end breezy through the period with no sign of any major wind events in the next seven days. The only thing to note for winds, is the progged backdoor cold front will move through during the Sunday timeframe, with winds turning back to the east/northeast. Along with gusty outflow winds from isolated virga showers Saturday and Sunday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 67 94 62 89 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 60 88 54 82 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 60 90 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 65 88 53 85 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 64 44 65 / 0 30 10 10 Truth or Consequences 66 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 60 95 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 59 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 92 62 88 / 0 10 0 0 Dell City 56 87 52 84 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 62 96 59 91 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 62 84 55 80 / 0 10 10 0 Fabens 62 95 59 90 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 60 91 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 90 63 87 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 60 89 53 86 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 63 92 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 65 95 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 87 55 84 / 0 10 0 0 Mayhill 59 72 43 77 / 0 30 10 10 Mescalero 58 74 40 76 / 0 30 10 10 Timberon 50 72 40 72 / 0 20 0 0 Winston 54 80 48 81 / 0 10 0 10 Hillsboro 64 86 52 85 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 59 88 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 83 33 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 56 87 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 90 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 87 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 58 92 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 91 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 92 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 86 59 85 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.