textproduct: El Paso

UPDATE

Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Main update from this evening's forecast was to expand low POPs (~15%) plus the mention of blowing dust farther north given trends in the HRRR. Otherwise, thinking for this afternoon and evening remains unchanged as scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move northeast out of Mexico with gusty winds and blowing dust the main concern. Given relatively dry low levels, precip amounts do not look very heavy though a few people could see up to a 0.10".

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

- Southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week, with seasonable temperatures.

- Slight chance for thunderstorms for far Southern New Mexico and west Texas Thursday, Sacramento Mtns Saturday/Sunday, and for areas east of the Rio Grande Valley on Monday/Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Wed May 20 2026

Main long-wave trough remains over the western US, with main upper low just off the SoCal coast. Second, dissipating upper low over the northern Baja. Ahead of these lows, moderate southwest flow continues with nice bit of moisture. However most of the sub- tropical moisture potentially available remains well south of the area as the sub-tropical jet remains well south. At the surface a secondary dry-line situated near the Cont Divide will still be around the Rio Grande Valley, likely allowing some more showers/thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and early evening. Hi- res members showing some convection again over El Paso, Hudspeth, and southern Otero Counties, and a few members even show some over southern Luna and Dona Ana Counties (again), so could look very similar to today's convection.

Otherwise, weaker south/southwest flow will continue into the weekend and beyond as the SoCal upper low swings across northern Mexico and eventually lifting out northward across New Mexico Saturday. This initially scours out the moisture for Friday but moisture starts infiltrating back in the east Saturday and Sunday, perhaps with a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Sacs. For the rest of the area, lower moisture and weak upper ridging over the area should preclude any chances of rain. Models do show modest moisture increase on Monday, and despite the weak ridging, some QPF appears, especially Monday evening. Next Pacific low tracks into Arizona Tuesday and will begin to scour out the low level moisture. As usual, this will race the diurnal heating clock, but a chance of rain a decent bet over the far eastern CWA Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Light and variable winds will become SW'LY (220-250) later this afternoon with speeds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected to move northeast out of Mexico after 21z this afternoon. The main impacts would be gusty winds, blowing dust, and virga though some rain may reach the ground. Impacts at LRU and ELP are likely, but confidence on timing and degree of impacts is too low to include mention in this forecast cycle. Most activity should be clear of terminals by 01 or 02z with light and variable winds overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Fire concerns will be minimal through the period though dry afternoons will continue. Today's min RH values will drop into the teens and 20s while afternoon winds top out around 10 MPH. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to move out of Mexico, affecting mainly the southern lowlands. Gusty winds and blowing dust will be the main concerns with these storms. Dry low levels will limit the amount of precip that reaches the ground. Venting today will be excellent with smoke transport to the northeast.

Friday will be a little warmer while min afternoon RH values drop into the single digits. Afternoon winds will top out around 10 MPH. Rain and thunderstorm chances return on Saturday, limited to the Sacramento Mountains on Saturday and Sunday before spreading area wide by Monday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 85 57 84 / 20 0 10 10 Las Cruces 55 87 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 88 58 88 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 67 43 65 / 10 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 57 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 89 56 90 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 53 85 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 87 64 88 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 55 89 56 89 / 10 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 60 91 62 92 / 20 0 0 10 Loma Linda 58 82 59 82 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 60 90 61 90 / 20 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 58 87 59 87 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 52 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 62 89 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 79 48 77 / 10 10 0 20 Mescalero 46 78 47 76 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 44 75 45 73 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 46 79 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 87 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 81 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 83 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 86 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 44 82 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 85 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 55 85 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 54 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.