textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 420 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Temperatures will remain above normal today under murky high cloud cover.

- Complex interaction of upper level systems and a back door cold front will lead to precipitation across the region Friday through Sunday. Accumulating snow is likely in the Sacramento Mountains, and a wintry mix in some lowland areas is possible late Saturday Night into Sunday morning, mainly east of El Paso.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains, though accumulations, particularly below 9000 feet, will be highly dependent on the timing of the back door cold front.

- Chilly and dry early next week behind the storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thick high clouds continue to stream into the area, and will stick around through the Thursday. Despite the high clouds, still expect temperatures will climb into the mid/upper-60s across the lowlands Thursday.

Most of the attention to the forecast was on the Friday through Sunday time frame. Overall trend has been a little warmer, with southwest flow holding the backdoor front at bay much of Saturday, keeping snow levels mostly above 9000 feet. But, significant QPF is still expected Saturday night into Sunday as snow levels drop, and it wouldn't take much to sneak the front in sooner.

Wintry precip impacts for El Paso and Las Cruces still look to be "minimal to none", though some light snow on the passes is still possible, and higher impacts along the I-10 corridor in Hudspeth County and points east can have a knock-on effect in the El Paso area, particularly with transportation.

Scattered rain showers look to begin to break out late Thursday night in southwestern New Mexico, mostly in response to increasing upper level divergence as a jet streak along the CO/NM border increases in intensity. A leading shortwave trough moving into Sonora on Friday morning will cause scattered showers to increase in coverage through the day. Meanwhile, our upper low will still be west of Baja California, and the backdoor cold front will be just entering the eastern plains of New Mexico.

Showers will move into the Sacramento Mountains Friday (late morning or early afternoon), but snow levels look to start out around 9000 feet. Higher than Cloudcroft village, but still affecting parts of the Sunspot Highway.

700 mb temperatures will only slowly drop on Friday night as the upper low approaches the Baja Spur, and the main northern stream shortwave moves into Utah. The GFS finally brings ESE flow into the Sacramento Mountains on Saturday morning, just as a lull develops in the precip, but snow levels still look to hover around 8500 feet until later in the day, as the deeper cold air lags behind the initial wind shift with the front.

By Saturday afternoon, we could be looking at very lopsided snow levels on either side of the Sacramento Mountains -- around 8500 feet along the west slopes, and 6500 to 7500 feet along the east slopes, just as precip starts redeveloping.

Saturday night will be the make-or-break period for this event, as the upper low weakens into an open wave over Chihuahua, and begins to phase with the northern stream shortwave approaching from the Four Corners. This will be when the backdoor front and the deeper colder air behind it needs to push westward in order to see Winter Storm Warning-level snowfall in the Sacramento Mountains, and it's uncomfortably close.

NBM stats/probabilities have mostly ticked warmer. The NBM 50th Percentile snowfall is only about 2 inches for Cloudcroft by 00Z Sunday, with 4 inches around the Sunspot Highway high point. For the whole event, the 10th Percentile snowfall ranges from 1 inch at Cloudcroft to 3 inches around 9500 feet. 50th Percentile: 7.5 to 11.0 inches. 90th: 14 to 18 inches.

Signals for freezing rain potential in Hudspeth County are also fading a bit, with the GFS soundings supporting FZRA at Sierra Blanca and just west of Van Horn after dark Saturday night as shallow cold air makes its move west. It's a very thin layer of warm air, right around 800 mb (not far off the ground), and soundings suggest it may erode fairly quickly Saturday night. The risk is still notable, however, and FZRA chances are still in the deterministic grids.

Considering the shifts and uncertainty, and the higher snow levels on Friday limiting impacts, we decided to keep the Winter Storm Watch as-is, rather than make a move to upgrade or go to Advisories. With the FZRA risk in Hudspeth County not until Saturday night, we still have some time on our side for headlines there.

Snow chances for El Paso look very low, and would be confined to early Sunday morning. Impacts would be nearly nil, but light accumulations on Transmountain (and San Augustin Pass) can't be ruled out.

Temperatures will take a tumble behind this system, with lows dropping into the 20s even in the urban lowlands Sunday Night (Mon AM) and Monday Night (Tue AM), with 10s in the Mesilla Valley. Rivaling what we saw back around Jan 10-11. In other words, nothing extreme, and lowland highs look to stay well above freezing through the period (ELP High Sunday 46, could trend lower if the backdoor front shoves further west, highs Monday back up to the upper-40s/lower-50s).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

Mainly VFR through the period, with increasing SCT-BKN150 layers to 300. Developing after 03Z, mainly Deming west...BKN100 with isolated BKN070 -SHRA. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots becoming west 7-10 knots after 20Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 420 AM MST Thu Jan 22 2026

No fire weather concerns on the forecast horizon. One last tranquil day today with just high clouds and above normal temperatures give way to incoming Pacific storm system which will spread lowland showers and mountain snow across the area this evening through mid-day Sunday. Moderate amounts of rain are expected Friday and Saturday. Rain will change mostly to snow over the mountain zones Saturday morning and afternoon, with accumulations of 5-10 inches for zone 113 and 1-3 inches for zone 110. Temperatures falling to well below normal Friday-Sunday. Drier west flow then moves in Monday and Tuesday for clearing skies and temperatures closer to normal.

Min RH: Lowlands and mountains 15-20% today increasing to 60-75% Friday through Sunday, then down to 30-45% Monday/Tuesday. Mountains 15-25% today, increasing to 60-80% Friday through Sunday, then down to 35-50% Monday/Tuesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 48 60 48 52 / 20 80 70 90 Sierra Blanca 45 59 44 45 / 20 80 90 90 Las Cruces 42 55 46 50 / 20 80 80 90 Alamogordo 40 56 45 49 / 20 80 90 90 Cloudcroft 31 40 34 36 / 30 80 100 90 Truth or Consequences 40 55 43 50 / 20 70 80 90 Silver City 40 50 41 45 / 20 80 70 90 Deming 43 59 45 52 / 30 80 70 90 Lordsburg 42 56 45 50 / 20 80 70 90 West El Paso Metro 50 58 48 52 / 20 80 70 90 Dell City 40 56 38 41 / 10 70 90 80 Fort Hancock 46 64 47 55 / 20 80 90 90 Loma Linda 46 53 42 44 / 20 80 80 90 Fabens 47 61 46 53 / 20 80 70 90 Santa Teresa 47 56 47 51 / 30 80 70 90 White Sands HQ 48 56 48 49 / 30 80 90 90 Jornada Range 42 55 43 50 / 30 80 90 90 Hatch 41 58 45 52 / 20 80 90 90 Columbus 48 59 47 53 / 40 80 70 90 Orogrande 43 55 44 47 / 30 80 90 90 Mayhill 33 51 36 38 / 30 70 90 90 Mescalero 32 50 37 42 / 20 80 100 90 Timberon 33 47 38 41 / 30 80 90 90 Winston 32 50 34 45 / 10 70 80 90 Hillsboro 41 56 42 50 / 20 80 80 90 Spaceport 37 55 42 50 / 20 70 90 90 Lake Roberts 34 50 36 44 / 20 80 70 90 Hurley 38 54 42 47 / 20 80 70 90 Cliff 36 56 41 49 / 20 80 70 90 Mule Creek 36 53 38 47 / 10 70 70 90 Faywood 42 52 43 47 / 30 80 80 90 Animas 46 59 47 52 / 40 80 70 90 Hachita 45 57 45 51 / 30 80 70 90 Antelope Wells 45 59 44 52 / 40 80 70 90 Cloverdale 46 51 44 46 / 50 90 80 90

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.