textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Dry through Saturday; chance of rain Sunday and Monday. - Temperatures will be warming to well above normal through the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

- Dry conditions return by the middle of next week but with some areas becoming breezy.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

An active weather pattern over the next week but nothing looks highly impactful. Temperatures in the short term will be warming up as a south-southwest flow develops ahead of upper low moving into the Baja region. High temperatures will be warming back up into the 60s to near 70 going into the weekend. This upper low is the main player and as usual with these SW cutoffs, the timing of it lifting out is not handled well by the models. EC is by far the slowest and the latest GFS has trended that way as well. This makes the most sense given typical model biases with these systems. The other part will be how south it goes. Both models now do show the track of the low staying well south of the Borderland, but we will have some period of upper diffluence/deformation affecting at least the southern zones. Confidence is not high on coverage or placement but the farther south, the better the precip chances. Also, the zonal flow north of us will keep any cold air well to our north, so even most of the mountain zones will see just rain. Kept a general 20-30 PoPs Sun/Mon going. Temps will be tricky depending on cloud cover and precip but will remain at or above normal.

The system eventually exits the area by late Tue with dry conditions returning. Temperatures will also rebound with a westerly flow at the surface returning. Highs back up near 70 for the lower elevations is expected but with some occasional breezy days going into later in the week. There is another system on the horizon going into the end of next week but again timing is all over and still outside forecast range.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

P6SM SKC-SCT200-250 through the period. Winds will generally be east to northeast AOB 10KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1030 AM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue through Friday. An upper low will be tracking to our south over the weekend into early next week which will help draw up some moisture and raise RH's into the 20s and 30s. There will be some rain chances across the area, but areas south of Interstate 10 will be the favored locations for better rainfall amounts. Winds will be light through much of the period, but toward the middle to later part of next week some breezy days are expected. Vent rates remain poor for most areas but parts of the Gila will be fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 36 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 20 Sierra Blanca 33 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 33 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 30 66 39 66 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 29 50 32 46 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 34 66 41 66 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 36 62 39 62 / 0 0 10 20 Deming 30 68 40 68 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 33 66 39 66 / 0 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 35 67 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 27 66 37 66 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 33 72 42 72 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 36 63 43 62 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 32 70 42 69 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 33 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 35 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 26 66 35 67 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 30 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 36 67 44 68 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 31 65 39 64 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 30 64 34 60 / 0 0 0 20 Mescalero 28 61 33 58 / 0 0 0 20 Timberon 27 58 31 55 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 26 61 31 60 / 0 0 0 20 Hillsboro 35 66 41 65 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 28 66 38 66 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 20 63 30 61 / 0 0 10 20 Hurley 28 64 37 64 / 0 0 10 20 Cliff 23 67 36 67 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 22 66 31 64 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 32 63 41 63 / 0 0 10 20 Animas 32 68 39 68 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 30 66 39 67 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 33 68 40 68 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 35 65 41 63 / 0 0 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.