textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 415 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Dry conditions, gentle warming, and afternoon breezes through midweek.

- A storm system brings a low to medium chance of lowland rain and mountain snow showers going into Thursday.

- Dry and breezy conditions will return going into Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Several passing troughs over the upcoming week which will bring some fluctuations in temperatures but nothing too extreme and a possibility of some precip Wed night into Thu. Overall the models are in agreement with this synoptic setup but are having issues with the midweek positively tilted trough moving through the Four Corners region. The first trough will move through tonight and Monday and shift winds around to the west/northwest. This will allow temperatures to start rebounding for Monday with highs expected to warm about 5-10 degrees from the highs today. Westerly flow going into Tue and Wed will keep highs consistent with occasional breezy periods. Lighter winds Tue morning with some drier air in place could lead to some areas that haven't seen a freeze yet to get there. It will be close around Las Cruces and the outlying areas of El Paso.

The main system of impact will be developing late Wed into Thu. Models had been coming together on this and tapping some modest subtropical moisture. My confidence isn't too high in this scenario without the trough digging further south. Latest GFS is trending drier along with it's ensemble mean. Right now lowered NBM PoPs about 5-10 percent with this trend and will let later shifts see if this continues. Any precip on the lowlands will remain rain with a rain/snow mix in the mountains.

After the trough passes, we go back into a zonal flow with temperatures returning to near average with occasional breezes once again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 415 PM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

VMC expected through the TAF period. Skies SCT at 15 kft and BKN at 25 kft. Skies will gradually become FEW to SCT during the overnight hours. Winds generally light at 5-10 kts out of the E/S. Winds will become light and VRB during the overnight and morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Dry with some occasional breezy conditions are expected through midweek. The windiest days look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal and RH's above 20 percent. An upper trough will move through late Wednesday into Thursday and could bring some light precipitation to the area but the amount of moisture available is in question. Vent rates the next couple of days will be fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 64 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 30 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 61 31 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 29 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 37 22 41 27 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 29 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 31 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 63 29 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 30 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 36 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 63 26 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 67 32 69 41 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 30 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 65 32 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 62 32 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 34 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 59 23 62 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 63 28 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 33 67 39 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 28 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 23 55 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 23 52 30 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 48 21 50 28 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 51 22 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 31 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 57 24 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 20 57 22 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 56 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 57 25 59 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 56 21 57 23 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 62 32 65 36 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 31 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 34 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 36 60 39 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.