textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

- Thunderstorms remain in the forecast for through Friday, favoring northern and western areas through Thursday and becoming areawide Friday.

- Moisture levels trend down for the weekend, allowing for lowering storm chances into next week.

- Temperatures remain near normal this week with a warm-up over the weekend with near record highs possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Above normal moisture remains over the region with weak flow aloft between low to our north and ridge extending to the NW. We will still have some convection this afternoon into the evening, but cloud cover across the southern half of the region will likely limit coverage. There will be some lower and mid level moisture across the area overnight and a couple disturbances moving out of AZ during the overnight hours. Feel like there's enough moisture around that these disturbances will be enough to keep isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm going over the west. The upper level feature moving into the SW overnight will slowly progress east across the area Thu and bring a better chance for storms east of the RGV than today. NBM temps seemed too warm in the mid to upper 80s given expected cloud cover and H85 temps. MET and MAV temps looked more reasonable in the lower to mid 80s so did lower several degrees, especially east. \

Going into Fri, there will be a weak ridge axis moving over the area, but a disturbance again moving out of AZ on the back side of the ridge will bring a last round of storms to the entire area. Moisture will be in place and some areas could see some locally heavy rainfall, but mid level flow does increase out of the west and storm motion should be much quicker than what we are currently seeing.

Going into the weekend there may be a stray mountain shower around but do not expect much. Upper ridge will begin building off to the west with NW flow bringing in drier air. Temperatures will be on the rise as well with highs getting back into the lower to mid 90s by Sunday and remaining there through at least Tuesday. It will feel like we are back in March on Sunday with some breezy WNW winds picking up. Record highs for KELP are 97 or 98 for early next week, so tying or breaking a record by a degree or two is not out of the question. Some differences show up on the handling of how a blocking pattern develops by midweek. There will be a ridge off to the west with an upper low stalling out over the Midwest. Depending on how far west the upper low pushes, there will be some kind of temperature gradient nearby. Model trends are for it moving further west which would start to cool temps down over at least eastern zones, but for now kept close to the NBM temps.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN-OVC150-200 through much of the forecast period. Expect storms to again form over the area mountains by 20Z with isolated storms making it onto the lowlands. Confidence not high in storms at any terminal, especially south where morning clouds have lingered. KTCS will have the best chance of a storm in the late afternoon into the early evening. Isolated showers will move into the western areas overnight. Winds generally light out of the southeast to southwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Plenty of moisture will remain over the area through Friday with scattered showers and thunderstorms over area mountains each day. Isolated storms for the lowlands through Thursday, but will be more widespread on Friday. Northwest flow develops over the region going into the weekend which will bring in some much drier air. Temperatures by Sunday will be into the lower to mid 90s for the lowlands with RH's falling into the teens almost everywhere except the Sacs by Monday. Winds will be light through Saturday but Sunday will see some breeziness but speeds will remain below critical thresholds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 68 84 67 89 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 63 80 59 85 / 20 30 20 20 Las Cruces 64 83 61 85 / 20 20 20 30 Alamogordo 63 83 61 86 / 10 30 20 30 Cloudcroft 47 62 46 62 / 10 50 20 50 Truth or Consequences 63 83 61 81 / 20 20 20 50 Silver City 58 79 56 78 / 30 40 40 70 Deming 63 84 62 87 / 20 30 30 40 Lordsburg 64 85 62 84 / 20 40 30 50 West El Paso Metro 68 83 68 88 / 20 20 20 20 Dell City 62 83 61 87 / 10 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 66 85 67 90 / 20 30 20 20 Loma Linda 61 78 61 81 / 20 30 20 20 Fabens 66 83 67 90 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 65 83 64 87 / 20 20 20 20 White Sands HQ 65 82 64 85 / 20 30 20 30 Jornada Range 64 83 62 84 / 20 30 20 40 Hatch 64 85 62 87 / 20 30 30 40 Columbus 64 85 64 88 / 20 30 30 20 Orogrande 61 85 61 85 / 20 30 20 30 Mayhill 51 73 52 72 / 10 50 20 50 Mescalero 50 75 51 75 / 20 50 20 50 Timberon 50 71 49 71 / 20 40 20 40 Winston 53 78 50 75 / 30 30 30 70 Hillsboro 59 82 57 83 / 30 30 30 60 Spaceport 62 84 60 83 / 20 20 20 50 Lake Roberts 52 79 53 78 / 30 50 40 80 Hurley 60 80 57 80 / 30 40 40 60 Cliff 59 81 56 83 / 30 40 40 70 Mule Creek 57 79 54 80 / 20 40 30 70 Faywood 60 80 58 80 / 30 40 30 50 Animas 63 85 61 85 / 30 40 30 50 Hachita 63 84 61 85 / 30 40 30 40 Antelope Wells 63 84 60 85 / 30 40 30 40 Cloverdale 61 80 58 80 / 30 50 30 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.