textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Increasing moisture and a series of weak upper level disturbances will bring several days with improved thunderstorm chances, especially near and west of the Rio Grande.

- The threat of localized flash flooding will spread across the area tonight into Friday, and may linger in Hudspeth County on Saturday.

- High temperatures will drop to near normal for much of region through the coming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Lots of moisture moved into the region on Tuesday and that moisture trend will continue on Wednesday through Friday. Each day will see scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, as moisture rotates up from norther Mexico on the west side of the upper level ridge centered over the southeast U.S. At the same time, an upper level trough will slowly be approaching the region from the west. As I mentioned the circulations around those two features, will continue the conveyor belt of moisture from the south. All we need is some trigger to fire off the storms. Sadly no stronger trigger is evident so we will have to do with the instability due to daytime heating and the weak short waves that will also rotate up from the south. While we don't have a strong trigger for thunderstorms, I do think we will see scattered thunderstorms and with the above average precipitable water values (PW's), any storms that do form will be capable of producing some heavy rain leading to flash flooding. A flash flood watch is in effect for the mountains and locations west of the Rio Grande on Wednesday. The moisture and rain chances will continue on into Friday and Saturday, with a slow eastward drift of the main access of moisture as the trough to our west slowly pushes in our direction. Sunday looks dry as we will be on the backside of one trough, but by Monday, we will see the return of moisture from the south as another upper level trough approaches from the west so more rain will be in the forecast for the start of next week.

Looking at temperature, as you might expect with all the clouds and moisture, our hot temperature for the last several months are long gone and we will see much more seasonal high temperature for the middle and end of the week. High temperatures for Wednesday through Friday will run a little below average out west and a little above average east of the Rio Grande. Those seasonal temperatures look to continue into next weekend. Then with the return of moisture and rain chances for next week, we may even see our high temperatures running a few degrees below average, which is something I haven't talked about in quite a long time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. We had some thunderstorm activity tonight, but most of the convection has died off. We continue to see several outflow boundaries moving across the region, which may fire off some convection in the next 3 hours, but right now my confidence of any storms forming and impacting an airport is low. Generally we will have quieter conditions through the rest of tonight, with light winds and mid ceilings of BKN120. Much like Tuesday, we will more storms Wednesday afternoon. There is still no clear trend for one TAF site or another seeing a thunderstorm, so we will update TAFs as needed. I do expect the mid ceilings to stick through the morning on Wednesday and into the afternoon hours, and we will see lower ceilings in and near any storms that develop. For winds we will see some low end gusty winds Wednesday afternoon which should drop off around sunset, but of course there is always the chance for some gusty outflow winds from area thunderstorms, especially tomorrow evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

No fire threats over the next week as plenty of moisture will be around through the end of the week with RH's staying above 25% with most areas above 35%. There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, initially having the best chances west of the RGV but shifting east as we get into Thu and Fri. Winds will not be a concern. Vent rates will be fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 71 92 70 92 / 80 20 40 20 Sierra Blanca 64 90 64 90 / 50 30 10 0 Las Cruces 65 89 64 89 / 70 20 60 20 Alamogordo 66 89 64 90 / 70 60 50 20 Cloudcroft 49 66 49 67 / 70 80 50 50 Truth or Consequences 66 84 64 85 / 70 60 80 30 Silver City 60 79 59 80 / 60 60 90 20 Deming 64 89 62 89 / 70 30 80 10 Lordsburg 66 84 63 85 / 40 60 80 10 West El Paso Metro 70 91 69 91 / 80 20 50 20 Dell City 67 91 66 93 / 60 40 10 0 Fort Hancock 71 97 71 98 / 60 30 10 0 Loma Linda 65 85 65 86 / 70 40 20 10 Fabens 69 94 69 95 / 70 30 30 10 Santa Teresa 67 90 66 90 / 80 20 50 10 White Sands HQ 70 90 69 91 / 80 30 60 20 Jornada Range 65 89 64 89 / 80 40 60 20 Hatch 66 91 64 90 / 80 40 70 20 Columbus 68 90 67 90 / 80 30 70 10 Orogrande 65 88 64 88 / 70 50 40 20 Mayhill 55 78 54 79 / 60 80 40 50 Mescalero 53 77 53 78 / 70 80 50 50 Timberon 53 75 52 77 / 70 60 30 30 Winston 56 75 56 77 / 70 70 90 60 Hillsboro 65 84 63 84 / 70 60 80 30 Spaceport 63 87 62 87 / 70 50 70 20 Lake Roberts 56 77 55 80 / 60 60 90 30 Hurley 61 81 59 82 / 60 50 90 20 Cliff 63 84 62 86 / 50 70 90 30 Mule Creek 61 79 61 82 / 60 70 90 40 Faywood 63 81 61 82 / 60 50 90 20 Animas 66 84 64 86 / 50 60 60 10 Hachita 64 85 62 86 / 50 60 80 10 Antelope Wells 64 85 63 87 / 70 70 60 30 Cloverdale 62 79 61 83 / 70 80 50 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.