textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1008 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Dry conditions, gentle warming, and afternoon breezes through midweek.

- A storm system brings a small chance for lowland rain and mountain snow showers over Grant, Sierra and northern Otero counties for early Thursday.

- Dry and breezy conditions will return going into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Models in good agreement bringing a couple of positively tilted troughs through the region this week. They have also trended toward keeping the subtropical moisture fetch models showed several days ago south of the area with just some residual moisture making it into the northern zones.

The first couple of days low level flow turns westerly and occasionally breezy. This will allow temperatures to warm up high temperatures back about 5 degrees above normal. Thinking with the westerly winds and mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with high clouds that guidance temps are a little low. Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 30s with some 20s in typical cold areas. Tonight, the few areas that haven't hit freezing yet probably will except in the El Paso metro area.

The trough that had looked promising for precipitation for late Wed into Thu now has too much westerly flow and keeps the moisture north and south of the area. NBM PoPs have trended down, but dropped any mention of precip for all areas except for the northern zones and mainly in the mountains. May be able to squeeze out an inch or two in the highest elevations of snow. Temperatures will drop about 5-8 degrees for Thu bringing highs to near normal.

Temperatures slowly rebound again going into the weekend with a more zonal flow setting back up. Again it looks occasionally breezy during this time, but do not see much more than 15-25 mph.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

P6SM SKC-SCT250 through the period. Winds generally west to northwest AOB 12KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1008 AM MST Mon Dec 1 2025

Dry and mild conditions will prevail for the next couple of days with breezy afternoons. Temperatures will be running about 5-8 degrees above normal with RH's mainly in the 20s lowlands and 30s mountains. An upper trough moves through on Thursday which will drop highs to near normal with just some light precipitation possible over the mountains. Breezy conditions will again be possible going into next weekend but remain below 20 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 37 68 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 31 64 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 30 64 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 28 59 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 44 29 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 30 62 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 33 55 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 31 64 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 31 63 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 66 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 26 66 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 35 69 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 34 60 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 33 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 31 65 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 35 65 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 25 64 27 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 28 65 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 33 67 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 29 60 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 56 28 54 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 51 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 24 51 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 22 57 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 31 61 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 25 61 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 21 56 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 29 57 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 60 27 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 22 58 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 32 58 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 32 65 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 31 65 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 66 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 59 37 58 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.