textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1015 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

- A passing disturbance, combined with moderate moisture, will allow for isolated to scattered showers overnight and Tuesday.

- Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back above normal beginning Wednesday.

- Moisture sneaks back in from the east, with a possible dry line moving in to spark showers and storms over eastern areas Friday, while western areas remain dry.

- An approaching Pacific low pressure system could bring some more showers to the area Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Upper trough associated with small closed low over SE Arizona is rotating across the area this evening with some sprinkles and light showers, mostly from the RG Valley east. The upper low and main trough pass across the CWA Tuesday, with another shot at showers and possible thunderstorms.

Short wave ridge builds over the area Wednesday and Thursday and keeps things dry for the most part. A weak disturbance racing under the base of the ridge over northern Mexico Thursday will turn low level winds around to the southeast and begin importing some moisture into the area. Some of the models show some precip but I think this is overdone.

A more reliable push of moisture across the area begins Friday and Saturday as a Pacific upper low moves toward the northern Baja, turning low/mid level winds more southeast and enabling Gulf of America moisture to seep towards our area. This will result in chance of rain Friday through Sunday. Several small short-waves move through the southwest flow and should aid in rain chances. The low eventually lifts Arizona and northern New Mexico Sunday, for one last push of showers before a more sustained period of dry weather begins the next work week. GFS shows modest instability each of these days, so can't rule out a few thunderstorms within the showers.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Generally VFR conditions through the period with SCT080 BKN- OVC200. Scattered BKN050 with isolated light showers from about the RG Valley east dissipating next 3-6 hours as upper disturbance moves east of the area. Another disturbance aloft may allow more showers to develop after 18Z Tuesday. Surface winds variable, mainly east AOB 8 knots, becoming northwest 7-10 knots after 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1041 AM MDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Low to moderate fire weather concerns today and Tuesday, as we watch see a disturbance track across the region with enough moisture to keep clouds, elevated RH, and isolated to scattered showers over the region. We will continue with some breezy E and SE winds, but those will be much lighter than the previous couple of days. Temperatures are also cooler today, with near average temperatures for Tuesday. The disturbance exits the area late Tuesday, with clouds and showers dissipating, and winds turning back westerly.

Wednesday begins a shift back to more typical Spring weather conditions, with the deep westerly zonal flow pattern reestablished over the area. We will warm back above normal, and see a large drop in RH, back into the teens. Winds will be generally light, as the conditions stay well below critical.

Late Thursday, and moreso on Friday, we see a push of east winds from TX move into our eastern and central zones, while our western zones remain under the influence of the dry SW flow. For our E and Central area, we expect to see the advance of Gulf moisture moving in, with a convergence zone setting up a dry line, just east, or even over our area. For those areas near and east of the Rio Grande Valley, we will see elevated RH, and chances for showers and storms (E THU, and E and Central FRI). Western areas will miss out on the moisture and remain dry.

The weekend ahead may bring more elevated fire weather in the form of stronger winds, as the next Pacific low pressure storm system makes a slow trek eastward toward our region. Models suggest increasing SW winds, with speeds in the 20-30 mph range. However, we do NOT appear to be critically dry, as this same system looks to advect some subtropical moisture into our region, as it approaches. At this time, it appears RH will be above the teens, with a mix of clouds, and temperatures only a few degrees above normal. We could even see some light showers, despite most areas staying dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 53 76 52 82 / 40 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 45 74 43 79 / 40 40 10 0 Las Cruces 48 72 46 79 / 60 30 10 0 Alamogordo 42 70 40 80 / 80 70 20 10 Cloudcroft 33 50 34 58 / 60 80 30 10 Truth or Consequences 51 70 50 80 / 70 70 20 0 Silver City 44 67 44 75 / 70 40 10 0 Deming 49 76 47 82 / 60 30 10 0 Lordsburg 45 75 45 82 / 50 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 76 53 82 / 50 20 10 0 Dell City 46 74 42 82 / 60 60 10 0 Fort Hancock 50 82 47 87 / 50 30 10 0 Loma Linda 47 70 46 75 / 50 30 20 0 Fabens 51 80 48 85 / 60 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 50 75 47 81 / 50 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 52 73 52 81 / 70 50 20 0 Jornada Range 41 72 39 81 / 80 50 20 0 Hatch 43 75 41 83 / 70 50 20 0 Columbus 51 78 50 83 / 50 10 0 0 Orogrande 41 72 39 80 / 80 70 20 0 Mayhill 37 59 37 71 / 60 80 30 10 Mescalero 35 60 36 70 / 70 90 30 10 Timberon 36 59 37 67 / 80 80 30 10 Winston 39 64 37 73 / 80 60 20 0 Hillsboro 47 69 48 78 / 80 50 20 0 Spaceport 39 70 38 81 / 60 60 20 0 Lake Roberts 37 68 37 75 / 90 50 10 0 Hurley 42 70 43 77 / 70 30 10 0 Cliff 39 75 38 83 / 70 30 10 0 Mule Creek 36 72 36 78 / 60 20 0 0 Faywood 45 69 45 77 / 80 40 10 0 Animas 45 77 47 82 / 40 10 0 0 Hachita 45 76 45 81 / 60 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 78 49 82 / 40 0 0 10 Cloverdale 48 73 51 77 / 30 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.