textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each afternoon, with a slight decrease for the weekend. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening out west with a few instances of flash flooding possible. Lower storm chances through midweek.

- Thunderstorm chances look to increase into the weekend, favoring area mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Today will see the best (worst?) of both worlds as very hot temperatures expand across the RGV/eastward and monsoonal moisture sets up out west. The upper high sits over E NM today, allowing lowland temps to climb to about 105 and warranting Heat Advisories. Moisture rotates around the western periphery of the high, bringing isolated to scattered storm chances out west this afternoon and evening. Slow storm motions to the northwest and PWs around 1.2" will result in flash flood potential west of the Divide. HREF max 6-hr rainfall shows up to 2" of rain with consistent bulls-eyes in the NM Bootheel this evening. Somewhat lower amounts are forecast in the Gila this afternoon before focusing further south. With saturated soils from recent rainfall and this heavy rain potential, Flood Watches have been posted. Mainly dry conditions are expected from Deming eastward.

The upper high doesn't move much through Thu, flattening out a bit due to a shortwave passing through the Central Rockies. Moisture levels decrease somewhat out west through midweek with lower storm chances than today. Temps stay above normal through the workweek with more Heat Advisories likely, especially on Fri as the high stretches west.

Heading into the weekend, the high parks itself over AZ, allowing moisture and shortwaves to rotate in from the north. Scattered mtn storms are modeled each afternoon, drifting to the south and west with more isolated coverage in the lowlands. Gusty outflows and blowing dust are possible for the lowlands. Better moisture and storm chances will slightly lower highs towards 100 for the lowlands.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Low storm chances W of KDMN this afternoon and evening with dry conditions expected for all terminals. Gusty outflows over 30kts possible in the evening from W-NW, favoring KDMN and KTCS. BLDU may reduce VIS to 3 SM at KDMN from outflow. Winds AOB 10kts outside of outflows, favoring S-SE direction.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 958 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered storms develop out west this afternoon with some heavy rain/flash flood potential. Frequent lightning and outflow gusts to 40 mph are possible into the evening. Most areas remain dry today with light S-SE winds and temps above normal. Storm chances decrease Wed/Thu to the west as temps remain hot. Area mtns will see better storm chances into the weekend with spotty coverage in the lowlands. Temps cool off slightly for the weekend. Winds remain light from the southeast this week.

Min RHs range from 12-30% through Fri. Vent rates will be good to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 106 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 100 68 98 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 71 103 71 102 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 73 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 56 80 54 79 / 10 10 10 20 Truth or Consequences 73 102 74 102 / 20 0 10 0 Silver City 64 95 66 95 / 30 20 20 30 Deming 71 103 72 103 / 20 0 10 0 Lordsburg 70 101 72 101 / 20 10 20 10 West El Paso Metro 78 105 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 103 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 76 107 76 107 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 98 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 76 106 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 75 103 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 105 77 103 / 10 0 0 10 Jornada Range 74 103 74 102 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 73 106 73 105 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 75 105 76 104 / 20 0 10 0 Orogrande 72 103 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 60 92 59 91 / 10 10 10 20 Timberon 58 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 63 93 64 93 / 30 10 20 30 Hillsboro 71 100 71 100 / 20 10 10 10 Spaceport 71 102 71 101 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 59 95 60 95 / 30 30 10 60 Hurley 65 98 67 98 / 20 10 10 20 Cliff 65 101 68 101 / 20 10 20 20 Mule Creek 63 97 66 97 / 20 10 20 10 Faywood 68 98 69 97 / 20 10 10 10 Animas 69 101 72 103 / 40 10 10 10 Hachita 69 100 71 102 / 20 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 69 100 70 100 / 20 10 20 10 Cloverdale 65 94 66 95 / 30 20 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.