textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 651 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the Lower Valley through Thursday evening.

- We will see an uptick in thunderstorm activity on Thursday, but the best chances for rain will continue to be west of the Rio Grande. We will have a drying trend as we head into the weekend.

- High temperatures will continue to run about 5-8 degrees above average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Not much changing in the short term, but there is hope in the extended forecast. Currently the upper level ridge that has controlled our weather is centered over the New Mexico/Arizona border. During the day on Thursday, the upper level ridge will drift north to near the Four Corners region and that will allow our precipitable water values (PW's) to climb a bit as moisture is able to work into the region from the east. This increased moisture will help fuel an uptick in thunderstorm activity, so most of the area will have a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday, but the best chances for rain will be west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures Thursday will continue to run 5 to 8 degrees above average.

By Friday and into the weekend, drier air will return to the region and we will see lower rain chances across the area. The Gila Wilderness will continue to see at least a slight chance for rain, but the rest of will likely stay dry through Sunday. High temperatures for Friday, Saturday and Sunday will run 3 to 5 degrees above average. Most lowland locations will be at or a little below the triple digit mark for high temperatures.

For Monday into the Tuesday, the extended models are beginning to indicate a pattern change. The upper level ridge over the Southwest will begin to weaken, while the Bermuda high over the Southeast U.S. will begin to strengthen. This will be a slow process, but by Wednesday, we begin to see signs of a true monsoon pattern setting up over the desert Southwest. We will see what later runs of the models bring.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 651 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Increasing chances for thunderstorms late this afternoon and early evening further east than we've become used to. HRRR and UofAZ WRF are particularly active with thunderstorms reaching LRU and ELP after 23Z to 00Z, with good potential for wind gusts 40 to 45 knots as DCAPE values remain elevated despite some increase in upper level moisture. TCS and DMN should also see thunder, though the strong wind risk is a little lower. Otherwise, light winds and VFR conditions most of the day. Lingering showers and convective debris clouds will linger after the initial thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 651 AM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will continue to be low, though with a persistent pattern favoring dry and hot conditions east of the Rio Grande, and much wetter over the Gila region down into SE Arizona, we are starting to build some rainfall deficits in parts of the Sacramento Mountains. Today will bring an uptick in thunderstorm activity in some of these eastern areas, but with gusty and erratic winds. The Otero Mesa and much of Hudsepth County will remain dry. Continued hot and generally drier this weekend, with some hope for an uptick in rain coverage mid to late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 101 75 100 / 50 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 68 95 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 98 69 97 / 60 0 10 0 Alamogordo 69 98 69 98 / 20 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 53 75 52 74 / 30 30 10 10 Truth or Consequences 71 99 71 97 / 60 10 30 0 Silver City 64 93 64 92 / 40 50 20 20 Deming 69 99 70 99 / 50 0 20 0 Lordsburg 70 98 70 98 / 40 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 75 100 76 99 / 60 10 10 0 Dell City 72 100 72 99 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 76 104 75 102 / 20 0 10 0 Loma Linda 69 94 69 93 / 30 10 10 0 Fabens 74 101 74 100 / 40 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 72 98 72 98 / 60 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 99 73 98 / 70 0 10 0 Jornada Range 70 99 70 97 / 50 10 10 0 Hatch 70 102 70 100 / 60 0 20 0 Columbus 73 99 73 99 / 60 0 20 0 Orogrande 69 97 69 97 / 40 10 10 0 Mayhill 58 87 57 86 / 20 30 10 10 Mescalero 57 88 57 86 / 50 50 10 10 Timberon 56 85 55 84 / 20 30 10 10 Winston 61 91 61 90 / 40 30 30 0 Hillsboro 67 98 67 96 / 60 20 30 0 Spaceport 68 99 68 97 / 60 10 20 0 Lake Roberts 59 93 59 91 / 30 60 30 40 Hurley 65 95 65 94 / 50 30 20 10 Cliff 67 99 66 98 / 60 60 20 30 Mule Creek 65 95 64 94 / 50 60 20 20 Faywood 67 95 67 94 / 50 20 20 0 Animas 70 98 70 98 / 60 0 20 0 Hachita 68 97 69 97 / 70 0 20 0 Antelope Wells 69 96 69 96 / 60 0 20 0 Cloverdale 65 92 65 92 / 60 10 20 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.