textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into Monday.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday/Friday 101-106.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Summertime subtropical high is anchored over the Desert SW this evening with a moisture plume extending across the AZ-NM border up into the Central and Northern Rockies and High Plains. Considerable mid-level dry air has pushed south from the Plains and into much of the CWA. 00z sounding showed a meager 0.53" PW, and as a result, convective coverage has been notably lower, limited mainly to the Gila. Moisture across Central and Northern NM will pivot back to the south for Wednesday, and the GFS and NAM show PWs increasing back closer to an inch. Convective coverage should therefore increase. NBM was very pessimistic for the lowlands with POPs below 15%, but I increased them in line with the moisture increase and N'LY flow aloft. It shouldn't take much to drive isolated storms into the lowlands on outflows, and the HRRR supports this theory. We essentially repeat this pattern again Thursday though the center of the 500 mb high will nudge to the west. Highs will also creep upward through Friday with most lowlands above 100.

Friday will start a transition. The 500 mb high will center itself back over NM, but it will also start shifting north. Initially, this will lower convective coverage given the proximity of the high, but the northward shift will allow moisture to move in from Mexico with highest POPs across the mountains and the International Border Friday night. As we go into the weekend and into next week, the high will continue to shift northward before centering itself near WY. This will allow an increase in moisture, decrease in highs, and increase in storm and rain chances. Rotating around the high will be inverted troughs though the GFS and Euro do not agree on their positions. POPs remain broad- brushed by the NBM, generally ranging 20-50% for any given 6 hour period. Heavy rain would be the main concern with these storms with the GFS showing PWs near 1.5".

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT250, but FEW- SCT050-150 will be more likely late afternoon and into tomorrow evening. ISO TSRA/SHRA cannot be ruled out after 21z, but chance of occurrence is low. These storms will also trigger outflow boundaries with subsequent wind shifts. Outside of storms, winds will be light, generally from the southeast with speeds near 10 knots and occasional gusts to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Near critical to critical min RHs persists in the lowlands today through Saturday with values generally 11-20%. Area mountain min RHs will generally be 20-35%. 20 foot winds each afternoon will stay light at 5-10 mph with calm winds overnight. Daily thunderstorm chances exists for the mountains each day through Saturday with isolated storms in the lowlands. Sunday and early next week looks potentially more active with more areawide rain chances with a tropical system potentially heading over the area at this time. This will increase min RHs above critical thresholds Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be near seasonal today and tomorrow but even hotter temperatures expected Thursday through Saturday with Friday being the hottest.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 100 77 102 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 63 94 67 96 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 67 98 70 100 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 68 97 73 100 / 0 10 20 20 Cloudcroft 51 74 54 76 / 0 20 20 40 Truth or Consequences 69 98 71 100 / 0 10 20 20 Silver City 64 92 65 94 / 10 30 20 50 Deming 66 100 68 103 / 0 0 20 20 Lordsburg 69 99 70 100 / 10 10 20 20 West El Paso Metro 74 99 77 101 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 66 97 69 99 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 71 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 65 92 69 94 / 0 0 20 20 Fabens 71 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 70 97 73 100 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 74 99 77 101 / 0 10 20 20 Jornada Range 68 98 72 100 / 0 10 20 20 Hatch 69 102 71 104 / 0 10 20 20 Columbus 72 101 74 104 / 0 0 20 30 Orogrande 67 96 70 99 / 0 10 20 20 Mayhill 55 86 58 88 / 0 20 20 60 Mescalero 54 86 58 88 / 0 20 20 30 Timberon 52 82 55 84 / 0 20 20 20 Winston 59 90 61 92 / 0 50 20 40 Hillsboro 66 96 69 98 / 0 20 20 30 Spaceport 65 97 67 100 / 0 10 20 20 Lake Roberts 57 93 59 95 / 10 60 20 50 Hurley 63 95 65 97 / 10 20 20 50 Cliff 64 98 65 100 / 10 30 20 40 Mule Creek 62 95 63 96 / 20 30 20 20 Faywood 64 93 66 95 / 0 20 20 40 Animas 69 100 71 101 / 10 10 20 40 Hachita 67 99 69 100 / 0 0 20 30 Antelope Wells 69 99 70 100 / 0 0 20 40 Cloverdale 65 94 66 94 / 10 10 20 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.