textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1008 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Complex interaction of upper level systems and a back door cold front will lead to precipitation across the region Friday through Sunday.

- 4 to 8 inches of snow with light ice accumulations is forecast for the Sacramento Mountains. Areas above 9500 feet will see higher totals.

- Up to 2 inches of snow with sleet and freezing rain mixed in is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning for parts of Hudspeth County.

- There is still some uncertainty regarding precip type and accumulations. Continue to check back for updates.

- Chilly and dry early next week behind the storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1008 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

The next and well advertised upper level system spinning over the eastern Pacific will approach the Baja California coast. As the system approaches the western coast of Baja California, a fairly strong upper level sub-tropical jet will develop on the eastern periphery of said upper level system, overspreading across NM, west TX, and across the southern plains. Anomalous moisture will surge in from the south and southeast on today. In fact, ensemble guidance continues to show 3-4 sigma above climatology with PW values between 0.70-0.85". Deep moisture in combination with good dynamics will promote scattered to widespread shower activity across the forecast area through today and tonight, lasting through most of Saturday (70- 90% PoPs) and into Sunday morning (40-60% PoPs). High resolution guidance continues to show a brief break in shower activity during the early Saturday morning timeframe before the next swath of shower activity overspreads the area during late morning Saturday. Some of the high resolution guidance is showing 50-100 J/kg of SBCAPE overspreading the lowlands during the Friday/Saturday afternoon timeframe, along with LI values between -2 to 2. The NBM suite of guidance also shows 50-100 J/kg of SBCAPE. That said, with this mornings forecast package, there will not be any mention of thunder inserted, due to low confidence. However, an isolated instance of thunder can't be ruled out during the Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening timeframe. QPF output continues to remain steady with generally 0.5-1.25" across the area, with isolated higher amounts over the Sacramento Mountains. However, confidence remains medium at this time with regard to QPF.

Well off to the north over the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, a historically strong Arctic surface high pressure (~1045-1050mb) will usher in a Arctic airmass across CONUS. The associated cold front will push south across the Plains during the Friday/Saturday timeframe. Confidence remains low with regard to the progression of said cold front, timing of when it will push through the CWA, and whether or not precipitation will still be ongoing as it pushes through - again, confidence remains low with regard the aspects just mentioned above. Timing of FROPA will be key, with regard to snow mixing across the desert lowlands and even over the high terrain of the Sacramento Mountains. As fresh data continues to populate over the next 24-36 hours, we will continue to get a better grasp on the aforementioned cold front. If FROPA occurs earlier on while precipitation is ongoing, there will be better chances of seeing snow across the desert lowlands. If FROPA occurs later on while precipitation ends, there will be little to no chances of seeing snow showers across the desert lowlands. As of now, the highest probabilities of seeing snow occur over the mountains (dive into that in the next paragraph) and across the highlands of Hudspeth County/Otero Mesa region. As of now for El Paso and Las Cruces NBM probabilities are a low: Probability of >/= 0.5 snow : El Paso-20% / Las Cruces-20%. That being said, snow chances for El Paso and Las Cruces area are very low and confined to the early Sunday morning timeframe with very little to no impacts expected at this time. However, light accumulations of up to 1 inch (15-30% chances) over Transmountain and San Augustin Pass can't be ruled out.

For the mountains, especially the Sacramento Mountains, snow totals have trended slightly down over the past few forecast cycles. This is mainly due to the timing of cold front and fluctuations in snow levels. Recent model and ensemble guidance continues to show FROPA happening during the day on Saturday. As of now (8:00am MST), snow levels are below 9000ft over the Sacramento Mountains with moderate snow occurring in Cloudcroft. Guidance has snow levels rising to above 9000ft late this morning and lasting through the afternoon/evening hours with moderate rain/snow mix expected over Cloudcroft. Uncertainty in said snow levels remains fairly high at this time with snow levels fluctuating between 8900 to 9400 ft through today's period. Again, the fluctuation in snow levels will result in periods of rain/snow mix above 9000ft with brief light accumulations occurring during those instances when snow levels drop to around 9000ft. NBM guidance suggests snow levels dropping below 9000ft during the late morning timeframe on Saturday. There remains a high chance (70-80%) of seeing 4" or more of snow (Advisory Criteria) over the Sacramento Mountains above 9000ft, along with the high terrain of the Black Range. Medium chance (45-55%) of seeing 8" or more of snow over the Sacramento Mountains above 9000ft. And low chance (10-25%) of seeing 12" or more of snow over the Sacramento Mountains above 9000ft. That being said, Winter Weather Watch will continue to hold for the Sacramento Mountains, but the onset timing will be trimmed back to Saturday morning instead of Friday (the original start time). With high uncertainty on FROPA and associated snow levels during the event, confidence is low on snowfall totals for elevations between 6000-8500 feet over the Sacramento Mountains.

Signals for freezing rain potential in Hudspeth County are also fading a bit, with the GFS/NAM soundings supporting freezing rain at Sierra Blanca and just west of Van Horn after dark Saturday night as shallow cold air makes its move west. It's a very thin layer of warm air, right around 800 mb (not far off the ground), and soundings suggest it may erode fairly quickly Saturday night. The risk is still notable, however, and freezing rain chances are still in the deterministic grids.

The storm system moves eastward on Sunday with precipitation chances dropping to below 10 percent after 12pm as dry air filters in. Sunday morning and Monday morning temperatures will be cold, with temperatures below freezing across the desert lowlands Sunday morning and dropping into the upper teens to middle 20s Monday morning. Temperatures both morning over the high terrain will drop into the teens.

Temperatures will slowly warm heading into next week with quiet/fair weather conditions and light winds resuming.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

Active weather today with lots of rain and low ceilings, but not much wind or any frozen precipitation today. Rain showers and lower ceilings are ongoing across the area for all terminals. Off and on showers will continue through the late morning and early afternoon hours, with more steady showers this afternoon and early evening. We will return to off and on showers late tonight into the morning hours on Saturday. MVFR visibilities in rain with occasional IFR visibilities not out of the question. The challenge today and tonight will be the ceilings. I went ahead and dropped the ceilings around the region into the MVFR range of things for this afternoon. But we could see some IFR and even LIFR ceilings during the afternoon and evening. My confidence in those lower ceilings and their timing is not high so watch for TAF updates as conditions dictate. We will lower rain chances tonight, but the higher precipitation chances return on Saturday, with snow likely in the Sacramento Mountains. The precipitation looks to continue into Sunday morning when we may be cold enough to see some snow mix into the rain for KELP, KLRU and KTCS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 436 AM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

We will see an extended time of precipitation chances for today through Sunday. Snow levels will start off quite high today above 9,000 feet, but lower some to give higher elevations of area mountains some snow. Min RH's through Sunday will be at or above 30%. Winds will be generally light, over the next 5 days, with the one exception on Sunday when we could see some breezy winds. On Sunday we could see some breezy east winds for locations east of the Rio Grande and breezy west winds for locations west of the River. After the storm system exits the region on Sunday we will continue to see min RH's run at or above 20% through the middle of next week. Vent rates today will be poor and only slightly better on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 45 53 35 49 / 90 100 90 70 Sierra Blanca 37 45 24 37 / 90 100 90 80 Las Cruces 41 50 32 47 / 90 100 90 50 Alamogordo 40 50 23 41 / 90 100 100 60 Cloudcroft 29 32 14 23 / 100 100 100 70 Truth or Consequences 41 54 30 48 / 90 90 90 40 Silver City 38 47 27 45 / 100 80 100 40 Deming 42 55 37 53 / 90 90 90 50 Lordsburg 42 53 32 51 / 90 90 90 30 West El Paso Metro 47 51 36 48 / 90 100 90 70 Dell City 33 41 18 34 / 90 90 90 60 Fort Hancock 43 55 30 47 / 90 100 90 80 Loma Linda 38 43 24 37 / 90 100 90 70 Fabens 44 53 31 48 / 90 100 90 70 Santa Teresa 45 50 35 48 / 90 100 90 60 White Sands HQ 45 50 31 46 / 90 100 90 60 Jornada Range 42 51 28 47 / 90 100 90 50 Hatch 42 56 31 52 / 90 90 90 50 Columbus 46 55 40 54 / 90 100 90 60 Orogrande 40 47 25 42 / 90 100 100 70 Mayhill 27 40 12 35 / 100 100 100 70 Mescalero 31 42 15 34 / 100 100 100 60 Timberon 29 39 15 31 / 100 100 100 70 Winston 30 50 19 43 / 80 90 90 30 Hillsboro 39 54 27 48 / 90 80 90 40 Spaceport 40 53 25 47 / 90 90 90 40 Lake Roberts 35 47 24 44 / 90 90 90 40 Hurley 38 51 29 48 / 100 80 90 40 Cliff 39 54 27 52 / 90 80 90 30 Mule Creek 38 50 25 48 / 90 80 90 30 Faywood 41 50 32 48 / 90 90 90 40 Animas 44 55 36 53 / 90 90 100 40 Hachita 43 53 35 52 / 90 90 100 40 Antelope Wells 42 55 38 54 / 90 100 100 60 Cloverdale 44 48 37 48 / 90 90 100 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

NM...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday for Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 11 AM MST Sunday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.