textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 506 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Backdoor cold front arriving early Friday morning. Cooler temperatures, gusty east winds, and blowing dust possible.

- Slight chance of rain showers Sunday and Monday, limited mostly to western New Mexico.

- Temperatures will warm back into the 80s next week with breezy to windy conditions expected Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

An active pattern for the region over the upcoming week. Models in decent agreement with the main features, but the NBM does seem awfully low with the first of the features which is the back door cold front moving through the CWA Fri morning. The front will start moving into the area after 09Z and push through the entire area by 18Z. Strong east to northeast winds will move in behind the front. Models showing H85 winds of 30-40KTS over far eastern CWA and also going into Hidalgo Co. NBM probabilities of gusts over 40 mph over eastern areas is upwards of 60% and think this is low for the favored west slope areas. Expect areas of SE Otero, western Hudspeth and El Paso counties to reach at least Advisory level criteria, especially on the western mountain slopes. Would not be surprised to get a stray 60mph gust in favored easterly wind locations in El Paso but will word advisory with gusts to 55 mph. Temperatures will fall quite drastically with high temperatures being 25-30 degrees colder out east to 5-10 degrees cooler west.

Winds will continue out in Hidalgo Fri night but gradually decrease elsewhere. Looks like Sat morning will be the coldest in quite some time with lows falling into the 30s to mid 40s. Some areas in the Sacs may see an early low and then slowly warm as H70 winds shift around to the WSW and warmer air starts moving back in. Surface winds over the lowlands remain east to southeast for Sat and temperatures will remain cooler out east and drop more out west with most areas only getting into the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs.

Heading into Sun, upper high that has dominated our weather for quite some time will shift east and give us an almost monsoonal like pattern for a day or two with southerly flow tapping some modest mid and upper level moisture and bringing it into the western zones. Limited instability, but there will be some thunderstorms developing, some of which could produce dry lightning which could cause issues in the Gila region. Temperatures start warming back into the 80s where they will stay for the first half of next week. The upper pattern by Tue becomes much more spring-like which means breezy to windy conditions and likely some patchy blowing dust.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 506 PM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with skies SKC this evening and into the overnight timeframe. Winds will remain breezy out of the west at 12-17 knots with gusts to 22-27 knots through sunset. Winds will slowly decrease after sunset, becoming NW at 7-12 knots. A strong backdoor cold front will move through during the morning hours on Friday, generally between 10-14Z with winds becoming NE at 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM MDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Several fire weather concerns over the coming days. The first will be a strong cold front pushing in tomorrow morning. RH's will stay above 15% but wind speeds over the lowlands will gust over 40mph at many locations. Temperatures will also cool about 10-25 degrees across the region.

The next concern will come on Sunday as a quick surge of moisture moves in from the south, mainly focused west of the divide. There will be enough instability Sun afternoon and night to bring a chance for thunderstorms and possibly some dry lightning to the Gila region.

Next week we will see a transition to a more spring-like pattern with westerly winds picking up each day starting Tuesday. Temperatures will rebound back into the 80s these days and will lead to elevated fire weather conditions and possibly some critical areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 65 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 76 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 75 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 46 26 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 72 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 77 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 80 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 80 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 73 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 50 66 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 74 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 52 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 73 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 72 41 71 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 78 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 78 31 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 51 80 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 56 79 44 73 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 74 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 49 33 68 / 0 10 0 0 Mescalero 37 50 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 39 51 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 66 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 73 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 75 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 76 29 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 77 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 82 35 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 80 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 74 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 81 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 79 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 79 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 58 77 41 70 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Friday for Otero Mesa.