textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- A strong backdoor cold front is moving through tonight, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend.

- High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico into Friday. Wind gusts to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes.

- Scattered rain showers for the middle of next week as temperatures rebound.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 949 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A potent cold front is pushing through the Borderland this evening, bringing strong NE winds behind it. Gusts over 50 mph have already been seen E of the US 54 corridor. The strength of the sfc high behind the front is more in-line with what we tend to see in the middle of winter (1045mb-ish over central high plains on Fri). This will result in an impressive pressure gradient across the CWA as the front sweeps through in the near-term. West mtn slopes will see the gustiest winds, reaching 60 mph or higher. The strongest winds are expected to occur from now through early Fri AM with winds easing a bit during the day on Fri and shifting more easterly. Generally 25-35 mph sustained winds are modeled with a pocket of lighter winds from Las Cruces up towards Holloman AFB. No changes have been made to the wind headlines. Forecast remains on track.

Dust models, including the RRFS and NOAA AQ model, show a signal for blowing dust through the overnight, favoring S Otero County and far west TX. Low chance of 1 mile VIS in isolated areas, most likely in El Paso County. Any dust lifted off White Sands should get blocked by the San Andres and struggle to reach the upper RGV. The dust threat lowers Fri AM and shifts out W towards the Lordsburg Playa where winds remain strong. Confidence is lower in seeing dust impacts in Hidalgo Co compared to eastern areas, where BLDU Advisories are in effect until 9am Fri.

An upper low cuts off from the flow off the Baja coast for the rest of the week, pulling moisture into it. A ridge of high pressure extends from the NW at the same time, keeping most of the moisture to our south. Precip chances remain near zero into the weekend as winds subside through Sat. The upper low opens up into a shortwave on Sun, bringing some of its moisture into the region and slight rain chances for western areas. Then, a Pacific storm system dives down the West Coast, pulling more subtropical moisture northward through midweek from the Pacific. PWs climb towards 1" with low- medium rain chances area-wide late in the period. A low flood threat is present as NBM 90th %-ile shows 24-hr rain amounts of 1-2" Wed and Thu. Confidence is low in impacts for this midweek rain event.

Temperatures crash to unseasonably cool levels (highs 10-20 degrees below normal) behind tonight's front. Lowland highs in the low-mid 60s are forecast through Sat with cold air advection ongoing. It'll feel more like winter than early fall, especially in the Sacs Fri AM as wind chills reach the teens. Lowland areas to the N and E are likely to dip into the 30s Sat AM with patchy frost. Temperatures rebound towards normal early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The strong winds will continue for most of the day, but things will finally slowdown later this evening. We will see occasional lower visibilities due to blowing dust. But visibilities are expected to stay at VFR conditions. KELP has some high clouds, but those will move off later this morning and we will have unlimited ceilings this afternoon into the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 548 AM MDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A cold front ushered in strong winds and some blowing dust this morning. These elevated winds will continue through most of the day, before slowing this evening. Min RH's today and Saturday will be in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Sunday will start both a warming trend and moisture will return to the region. Rain chances will be back in the forecast for much of next week, with min RH's above 30% across the area. Ventilation rates today will be very good to excellent and then a little lower on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 44 64 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 41 61 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 38 61 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 46 31 52 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 61 45 68 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 38 58 41 64 / 0 0 10 10 Deming 42 63 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 44 61 48 69 / 0 0 20 10 West El Paso Metro 47 63 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 39 61 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 45 68 46 77 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 37 55 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 45 66 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 62 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 64 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 62 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 64 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 46 63 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 62 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 27 56 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 28 58 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 27 53 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 56 37 63 / 0 0 10 10 Hillsboro 40 60 43 67 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 37 61 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 60 37 66 / 0 0 10 20 Hurley 38 59 40 66 / 0 0 10 10 Cliff 44 67 47 72 / 0 0 20 20 Mule Creek 40 63 44 67 / 0 0 20 20 Faywood 39 58 42 65 / 0 0 10 10 Animas 46 62 47 70 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 43 60 45 69 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 44 63 45 70 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 42 58 44 69 / 0 0 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley.

High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel.

High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Wind Advisory until noon MDT today for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Otero Mesa- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.