textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 437 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100 degrees. Widespread Heat Advisories in effect through Wednesday. - Some moisture gives the high terrain a low chance of thunderstorms mid week.

- Dry and breezy conditions into the weekend result in elevated fire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Subtropical high aloft centered directly over the El Paso Region will allow temperatures to peak over the next couple days. Moisture continues to run quite low as well, with this evening's 00Z sounding at KEPZ only recording 0.49" of precipitable water. Tuesday will feature some growth over the southern NM high terrain, only resulting in very isolated (10-20% coverage) showers and virga bombs limited to the mountains. Lowlands will remain dry through at least Wednesday.

Main headline continues to be heat. Lowland temperatures will reach or surpass 100 degrees each afternoon and look to stay that way through the week ahead. The hottest days will be tomorrow through Thursday, with the Rio Grande Valley (and most of the lowland I-10/I-25/US-54 corridors reaching 104-108 degrees. While this is typical for late June (only 5 to 10 degrees above normal), it's still impactful heat. Heat Advisories have been issued for the majority of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas through Wednesday. Heat Advisories will likely need to be extended into Thursday/Friday, particularly for El Paso and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Shortwaves (along with stronger flow) moving across the Central Rockies midweek will flatten the subtropical high and nudge it southward late this week. This should allow temperatures to "cool" a few degrees, though still likely above 100 degrees for El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley. Slight return flow in moisture will also allow for the return of thunderstorm chances Thursday- Friday. Currently, this looks to be mostly limited to the high terrain (Black Range, Sacramento Mountains), with most of the lowlands only seeing isolated (15-25%) action. Strong west flow aloft looks to scour out moisture next weekend and resume the pattern of dry and hot (but near normal) weather.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds hold AOB 10kts through the day, mostly from N-NE. Virga showers develop west of KTCS by the evening, drifting towards the site. Otherwise, mainly SKC expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 437 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Fire weather concerns will increase as we head into next weekend. Hot and dry conditions are expected today, although there is a slight chance of virga showers and a sprinkle in the Gila this evening. Gusty outflows to 40 mph are possible from this weak activity prior to sunset, especially in Catron County. An isolated dry lightning strike or two is possible in the Gila later today. Otherwise, winds will be light with good to excellent ventilation.

Low chance of thunderstorms over area mountains Wednesday and Thursday with more gusty and erratic winds and potential for dry lightning. There's a slight chance of a sprinkle/virga showers for the lowlands Wed/Thu. A storm system well to the north brings drier air and breezier conditions over the weekend. Elevated fire danger is likely for FWZ110 and surrounding areas Sat/Sun as ERCs climb to the 90th %-ile or higher. Temperatures moderate slightly after Wed.

Min RHs range from 5-12% today, then 10-25% by Thu. Ventilation will be good to excellent through Wed, then mostly excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 106 80 106 / 0 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 71 101 72 101 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 70 104 72 102 / 0 10 10 10 Alamogordo 73 104 73 102 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 57 82 56 80 / 0 40 10 20 Truth or Consequences 73 103 73 100 / 10 10 10 20 Silver City 68 98 67 95 / 0 20 10 10 Deming 70 107 71 104 / 0 10 10 10 Lordsburg 70 103 71 100 / 0 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 77 105 78 104 / 0 10 10 10 Dell City 70 104 71 104 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 76 107 77 108 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 72 99 72 98 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 75 107 77 107 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 73 104 74 103 / 0 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 78 105 79 103 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 71 104 72 102 / 0 10 10 10 Hatch 71 107 73 105 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 75 107 77 104 / 0 10 10 10 Orogrande 70 103 72 102 / 0 10 10 10 Mayhill 61 92 61 91 / 0 30 10 40 Mescalero 60 93 60 91 / 0 40 10 20 Timberon 58 89 58 88 / 0 20 10 20 Winston 64 94 62 91 / 10 20 10 40 Hillsboro 72 101 70 99 / 10 20 10 20 Spaceport 69 104 69 101 / 0 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 61 99 60 95 / 10 20 10 10 Hurley 68 101 68 98 / 0 10 10 10 Cliff 67 104 67 100 / 0 10 10 10 Mule Creek 66 100 65 95 / 0 10 10 10 Faywood 69 100 69 97 / 10 10 10 10 Animas 71 103 71 100 / 0 10 20 10 Hachita 70 104 71 100 / 0 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 71 103 71 100 / 0 10 20 10 Cloverdale 68 97 67 94 / 0 10 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County- Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.