textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 829 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

- Drier air moves back in on southwest flow to dry out all but Hudspeth county. Still a bit of lingering moisture over to the east, with a slight chance of a Tuesday shower over Hudspeth county.

- Settle in for breezy and windy days Wednesday though the upcoming weekend, as a broad western U.S. trough with passing shortwave disturbances, produces strong winds each afternoon and above normal temperatures.

- Fire danger will be on the rise, compounding each day with warm, dry, and windy conditions drying out fuels and making any fire start hard to contain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 829 PM MDT Mon Apr 20 2026

A bit of trapped moisture lingered today under a ridge of high pressure for a second day of mostly isolated showers across the Borderland. The weak upper level short wave disturbance that helped kick off showers today will ease off to the east tomorrow, as a minor ridge of high pressure rebounds over the area. By the afternoon hours, we will see southwest flow shove moisture east, and import dry air over 4/5th of our forecast areas from the west. Only Hudspeth county looks like it will hold on to enough lingering moisture for any chances of afternoon showers. The rest of our region will be back to dry, with some high clouds passing, a noticeable jump in temperatures, and slight afternoon breezes. Thus a fair and mild day for the region.

Wednesday, through the weekend, the Western U.S. comes under a broad standing trough, with multiple sharp impulses rotating through it across the Southwestern U.S. This means one sure thing this time of year...INCREASED WINDS. Each afternoon will have at least breezy conditions, with most of these afternoon becoming windy. There will be no moisture, just dry and warm southwest to west winds through the period. Temperatures will be fairly steady, and without ridging overhead, they will stay quite seasonal; bouncing slightly above and below the daily averages. Dewpoints and RH will also bounce around average for the season, which means very low, very dry, and problematic for drying out fuels, and ramping up fire danger. The final ingredient is the most obvious, the winds. At least breezy each afternoon, and probably at least low-end windy most. No screaming crazy days until possibly Sunday. Most afternoon winds look to be in the 20-30 mph range, but sunday looks like a 30-40 mph range day, with higher gusts. We will likely be issuing fire weather products, and possibly wind and dust advisories for some of these days. As mentioned before, the environment will be dry, so no rain or storms.

Behind Sunday's sharp trough passage, we see surface high pressure slide down the plains, and a ridge aloft build to our west on Monday. This will start to slacken winds, but still breezy Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday look less windy, with a warming trend and fair weather conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions to persist with passing high clouds. Light and variable winds this morning will increase slightly to 10-15G18-25KT after 18Z. Dry conditions expected with clearing skies from west to east by the late afternoon and early evening but another wave of clouds quickly comes in behind the clearing skies.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM MDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions today due to near critical to critical min RHs across much of the lowlands. Min RHs will be 10-20% across the lowlands and 20-30% in the area mountains. 20 foot winds will be out of the southwest at around 8-15 mph this afternoon. Wednesday and through the weekend, we can expect fire weather conditions to get worse each day as we're expecting dry conditions, critical min RHs (with some days having RHs dip to single digits) and breezy to windy afternoons.

Wednesday through Friday will feature critical min RHs across the lowlands with values of 8-11% and area mountain min RHs of 13-18%. Slight increase in RHs over the weekend with values still critical, or close to critical, across the lowlands. Values will be 10-15% in the lowlands and 15-25% in the mountains.

Winds Wednesday will be close to Red Flag thresholds at 10-15 mph that afternoon, but the more slam dunk scenario for Red Flag conditions looks to be Thursday with 20 foot winds of 12-20 mph (20-25 mph near mountains and east slopes) out of the west. Friday and Saturday will be another set of near critical fire weather days as winds will be breezy but may not make it to Red Flag criteria (10-15 mph). Sunday looks like another possible Red Flag day with speeds of around 15-25 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 82 54 80 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 52 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 85 52 81 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 61 41 57 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 84 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 47 74 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 86 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 82 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 86 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 50 87 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 56 90 59 88 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 79 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 57 89 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 85 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 85 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 84 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 87 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 84 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 74 46 70 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 45 73 44 68 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 45 71 44 66 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 40 76 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 51 82 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 84 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 74 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 78 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 81 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 76 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 49 78 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 84 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 84 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 83 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 78 48 76 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.