textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 504 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Continued isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday, with temperatures several degrees below normal.

- Increase in storm activity late week through Sunday, with a low threat of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A few showers have began to develop across portions of Grant, Hidalgo and Otero counties this afternoon, with mostly isolated activity prevailing through the evening hours across the region.

Although moisture will be limited on Wednesday (PWATs 0.9-1.1"), a few high-res models indicate more scattered activity heading into the afternoon period mainly in response to an approaching upper level disturbance. Though latest ensemble model runs indicate the closed low either arriving late week or early next week (if at all), a few ripples in the flow aloft could provide enough lift for convective development Wednesday, and especially towards the latter part of the week into the weekend. However, with much drier air in place and 500 mb temperatures nearing -4 degrees C, leaning towards a drier solution while still maintaining at least slight chances (20%+) areawide for Wednesday afternoon, with much higher PoPs (40-80%) Thursday through Sunday, especially over the Gila region. Now, if the aforementioned low does not make it to the area, and we remain in the subsident side of it, then convective and rainfall chances would drop considerably for that timeframe.

In terms of the overall impacts, flooding will be the main threat late week into the weekend, especially over the Gila area. WPC has introduced a Slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) across western portions of Hidalgo and Grant counties Thursday and Friday, with the rest of the CWA under a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4). Regardless of coverage, the additional moisture arrival (PWATs 1.1-1.3") could easily create flooding issues with any of the heavier downpours, especially over the mountains, recent burn scars, and low-lying/urban areas. Aside from this, any thunderstorm that does develop could result in erratic and strong winds.

If planning outdoor activities late this week into the weekend, please pay special attention to the forecast updates as we fine tune the details.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period, with SCT100 BKN250 isolated BKN070CB -TSRA through around 06Z. Surface winds south/southeast 10-15G25 knots til around 06Z, then variable AOB 7 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. Isolated showers and storms remain in the forecast for this afternoon and again on Wednesday, mainly over the Gila with some heavy rainfall possible. Storm chances increase later in the week with a low risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars and out west. Temperatures stay below normal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 94 71 91 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 61 86 60 85 / 0 20 20 40 Las Cruces 66 91 66 88 / 20 20 20 10 Alamogordo 64 90 64 88 / 10 30 20 40 Cloudcroft 48 68 47 67 / 10 30 20 50 Truth or Consequences 71 91 69 87 / 10 30 30 30 Silver City 63 84 61 80 / 20 50 40 70 Deming 66 94 66 91 / 20 20 20 30 Lordsburg 68 91 67 87 / 20 20 30 50 West El Paso Metro 72 92 72 90 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 64 90 63 88 / 0 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 68 94 68 92 / 10 20 20 20 Loma Linda 63 85 63 84 / 10 20 20 10 Fabens 69 94 69 92 / 10 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 68 91 68 89 / 20 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 72 92 72 90 / 10 20 20 10 Jornada Range 68 92 67 89 / 10 20 20 20 Hatch 69 95 67 91 / 10 20 30 20 Columbus 71 94 71 91 / 20 20 20 30 Orogrande 65 90 64 88 / 10 20 20 10 Mayhill 52 78 51 77 / 20 20 20 40 Mescalero 52 79 51 78 / 10 30 20 50 Timberon 50 77 49 75 / 10 20 20 50 Winston 59 83 57 79 / 10 50 50 60 Hillsboro 66 89 64 85 / 10 30 40 50 Spaceport 66 91 64 88 / 10 20 30 20 Lake Roberts 57 85 56 81 / 20 50 50 70 Hurley 63 87 61 83 / 20 30 30 60 Cliff 64 90 63 86 / 30 50 50 70 Mule Creek 62 86 61 82 / 40 60 50 70 Faywood 64 87 63 83 / 20 30 30 60 Animas 68 92 68 88 / 20 20 20 60 Hachita 66 91 66 88 / 20 20 20 40 Antelope Wells 66 91 67 88 / 10 10 20 50 Cloverdale 63 86 64 82 / 20 10 10 80

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.