textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1002 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Temperatures warming back to near normal Tuesday and beyond (lowland temperatures in the lower/mid 80s).

- Mostly dry conditions through the week ahead, a much needed break after September's heavy rain. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Zonal flow across the area tonight as original trough well to our east, as next Pacific low/trough moves onshore. Ahead of this a short-wave upper ridge currently is moving across New Mexico in the zonal flow. Deeper sub-tropical moisture persists just south of New Mexico. Mid-level flow somewhat influenced by Rachel remains southerly, help keeping this moisture in place. Elsewhere, considerable very high level moisture over much of New Mexico but hasn't resulted in much of any cirrus.

Monday and Tuesday...Pacific trough moves over the Great Basin/Arizona Tuesday. Persistent dewpoints in the upper 40s will likely lead to some more CU fields Monday and maybe some higher clouds Tuesday as the trough approaches. Temperatures warming back to near normal by Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday...trough moves over New Mexico Wednesday and then drops south over west Texas Thursday. PWs increase back to .70 inches north to .80 to 1.00 inch south. Airmass becomes moderately unstable so we should see a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms both days. Temperatures remaining seasonable.

Friday into the weekend...low finally ejects out to our east by Saturday. At upper levels weak short-wave begins bringing moisture in Saturday night and Sunday, while at mid levels south/southwest flow begins bringing in some sub-tropical moisture and PWs approach an inch in the south Sunday. So another slight chance of showers or a thunderstorms Sunday.

Note: ECMWF still tries bringing the remnants of what would be Simon across west Texas Monday night/Tuesday. The various ECMWF runs have been intermittently showing this; however the ECMWF ensembles do not show this, more in line with the various GFS runs. Worth watching though.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions through the period with FEW060 SCT-BKN120, becoming mostly clear over the next 3-6 hours. Winds east/northeast AOB 8 knots. Winds becoming southeast 8-12 knots after 18Z with some higher gusts to 20 knots west of Deming.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Low fire danger due to recent rains and high fuel moisture. ERC are well below normal, but will increase closer to seasonal normals by the end of next week with drier weather ahead.

Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph on Monday, with vent rates staying Poor. Temperatures remain cool for early October. Light east flow will continue through the week, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 75 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 77 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 76 56 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 61 40 64 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 76 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 72 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 79 58 81 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 72 57 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 80 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 71 46 75 / 20 10 0 0 Mescalero 47 72 46 73 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 46 67 44 68 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 49 71 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 76 54 79 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 55 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 74 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 74 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 80 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 77 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 73 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 58 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 77 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 78 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 75 56 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.