textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 934 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Dry conditions and light winds persist through the work week with typical mid-November temperatures. Some patchy lowland fog is expected again late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

- Next system arrives late on Friday, bringing rain chances and high elevation snow through Saturday night.

- Slight chance of showers mid portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 934 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

Upper low now over northeast Texas with trough hanging back across the Big Bend. Moisture with the low is now well east of the area. Deep layer of moisture well south of our area persists, associated with the sub-tropical jet. Northerly mid-level flow and westerly upper-level flow has ushered in much drier air (KEPZ PW on 00Z sounding down to .43 inches). High amplitude ridge continues building in as the aforementioned trough dissipates ahead of the ridge. Main Pacific upper low over southern Gulf of Alaska is the driver of the building ridge as it digs southward over the next 48 hours. Thus through Thursday, expect mostly clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...Pacific low system moves to our area through this period. Main Gulf of Alaska low moves onshore of the Pac NW, while a secondary low forms much further south, moving across the northern Baja Friday afternoon and then northern Mexico/far southern New Mexico Friday night and Saturday morning, ejecting out ahead of the main trough. Decent moisture contained with this low as PWs approach or slightly exceed .75 inches. Expect some showers to develop west of the RG Valley Friday afternoon and spread eastward Friday night with the help of the surface cold front. Good cold air aloft (500mb temps cooling about 5 deg) will aid in supplying modest amounts of CAPE and slightly negative LIs. So can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm with these showers. Low over Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon should end most showers, but the main trough from the Pac NW low quickly moves across the CWA Saturday night and Sunday. Thus, the mountains could see a few more showers lingering into Sunday morning. Snow levels over the mountains Saturday around 9500 ft and falling to around 8500 ft overnight into Sunday morning. A couple inches of snow is possible at these elevations. Some breezy afternoon winds also possible Friday.

Monday through Wednesday...shortwave ridge transits across the area Monday behind the exiting trough. Next Pacific trough comes through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Main energy from this trough remains across Colorado and northern New Mexico with surface front through the area by Tuesday night. Chance of showers at this time limited to the mountains with breezy winds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Temperatures remain below normal for this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions today with SKC and dry conditions. Light winds this morning generally out of the northwest to north, shifting east this afternoon with mild breezes up to around 10G18KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 421 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RH values stay above critical thresholds each day. RH values will be 25-35% in the lowlands and 30-40% in the area mountains today and tomorrow coupled with very light 20 foot winds both days (5-10 mph). Rain showers move in Friday afternoon persisting through the overnight hours and into Saturday. More areawide rain chances Friday, decreasing Saturday focusing over the area mountains with very low chances across the lowlands. Rain moves out Sunday leaving dry conditions across the area until the next wave of rain potentially arrives Tuesday/Wednesday.

Generally light 20 foot winds Friday at 5-10 mph becoming breezy Saturday at 10-20 mph that afternoon. Light breezes of 5-10 mph each afternoon Sunday through Tuesday. High temperatures remain near normal today through Friday becoming below normal Saturday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 47 70 49 71 / 0 0 0 20 Sierra Blanca 43 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 42 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 20 Alamogordo 43 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 29 56 30 54 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 43 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 40 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 50 Deming 42 69 43 68 / 0 0 0 30 Lordsburg 45 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 40 West El Paso Metro 48 70 50 71 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 44 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 48 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 30 Loma Linda 44 67 45 68 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 46 72 49 74 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Teresa 43 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 20 White Sands HQ 49 69 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 Jornada Range 38 69 42 70 / 0 0 0 20 Hatch 40 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 20 Columbus 45 70 48 71 / 0 0 0 40 Orogrande 40 68 44 71 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 33 67 34 64 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 33 66 34 65 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 32 64 32 62 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 33 65 33 63 / 0 0 0 50 Hillsboro 43 68 43 66 / 0 0 0 40 Spaceport 38 67 41 68 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 28 69 32 65 / 0 0 0 60 Hurley 38 68 39 65 / 0 0 0 40 Cliff 34 72 37 70 / 0 0 0 50 Mule Creek 29 70 32 66 / 0 0 0 40 Faywood 42 66 43 64 / 0 0 0 40 Animas 43 70 46 70 / 0 0 0 40 Hachita 43 69 45 69 / 0 0 0 40 Antelope Wells 45 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 40 Cloverdale 45 68 45 65 / 0 0 0 40

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.