textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Temperatures look to remain near or a little below normal through midweek, with some chilly mornings.

- We will see a chance for rain Tuesday night mainly in the Gila region but the rest of us should stay dry.

- For the end of next week, we will see high temperatures running above average, then temperatures for the weekend will drop a little below average.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1025 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

We saw some rain showers this morning, some light snow in the Sacramento Mountains last night and some breezy winds this afternoon. All of this was caused by a one-two upper level trough punch that moved across New Mexico in the last 24 hours. By Sunday morning the upper level trough will be well to our east, this will give us some light winds and our skies will see less clouds. With the moisture in the ground, we could see some patchy fog develop Sunday morning. The challenge will be how much fog will form. If some clouds stick around or the winds stay up just enough we won't see the fog form. Most likely locations for fog will be the Tularosa basin, the Rio Grande Valley north of Las Cruces or the Gila region. Aloft on Sunday we will have a dry northwest flow which will keep our high temperatures on Sunday running a little below average.

On Monday a short wave upper level ridge will move across the region. Normally this will start a warming trend, but at the surface we will see a weak backdoor (east to west moving) cold front which will usher in some cooler air. So high temperatures on Monday will run 3 to 5 degrees below average. By Tuesday our upper level flow will turn more to the southwest as the next upper level trough gets organized along the west coast. The southwest flow aloft will help warm our high temperatures to near seasonal averages. Tuesday evening the before mentioned upper level trough will move across the Four Corners area and that that will bring a chance for rain to the Gila region, but the rest of us will stay dry. We won't see much of a temperature change for our high temperatures on Wednesday, but by Thursday and Friday we will see high temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above average as yet another upper level trough along the west coast strengthens our southwest flow aloft. By Friday afternoon the upper level trough will be passing just north of the Four Corners area. This will be too far north to give us much of a precipitation threat, but it will give us some breezy winds Friday afternoon. For next weekend, we will be dry but another weak back door cold front will drop our temperatures back to near average or a little below average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

The rain is gone, but some clouds continue to linger. We may see off and on ceilings tonight especially for KDMN and KTCS. By late morning we will have unlimited ceilings. In general the gusty winds have dropped off and we will see light winds tonight and those light winds will continue through the day on Sunday. The one thing to watch for tonight will be fog. With some clear skies and the winds slowing, and much of the ground across the area is still wet, these are conditions that can lead to fog. I don't have great confidence that we will see much widespread fog and I don't have any confidence to focus in on one airport or another, so for now there is no mention of fog in the TAF's but the TAF's may need to be updated as we head through the over night hours. If any fog does form it should burn off an hour or two after sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

Gusty west winds of around 30 to 40 mph this afternoon, but with high RH and recent rainfall, there are no fire weather concerns.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures and excellent overnight RH recovery is expected the next several days. Some patchy fog will be possible in sheltered valleys.

Vent rates are excellent today with the windy conditions, but will become far less favorable Sunday into Monday, with some improvement from Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 45 62 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 41 62 39 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 41 63 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 43 29 43 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 60 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 34 59 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 39 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 39 62 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 47 64 45 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 43 65 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 69 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 57 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 46 67 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 43 63 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 64 44 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 63 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 64 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 33 54 31 54 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 32 55 30 55 / 30 0 0 0 Timberon 30 53 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 36 60 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 61 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 31 60 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 34 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 59 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 41 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 62 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 63 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 59 42 61 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.