textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 445 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026 - Well above normal temperatures, with just some high clouds today and Monday.

- A more Spring-like pattern will settle in across the region for the majority of next work week. Each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday, will offer windy conditions with blowing dust. Precipitation chances mainly focus over the Gila on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

The UL system that brought us some showers early this morning and breezy conditions this afternoon is now well east of us toward the ArkLaTex region. Upper level ridging will build in behind it, leading to rather pleasant weather for Sunday with light winds and highs well above normal.

Beginning Monday, we start to transition from ridging aloft to troughing, as a prominent UL low will carve out a long-wave trough across the Western CONUS. Temperatures will increase further for Monday on deep SW flow while winds increase some. Tuesday will bring an even sharper increase in winds as a ~90 knot H500 trough swings across the Desert SW, intensifying as it does so. Meanwhile, a 985 mb low will form over NE with its trough axis trailing toward NM along with increasing frontogenesis. Frequent readers of these discussions know that means wind for the Borderland. Much of the CWA looks to be flirting with advisory criteria with H850 flow around 40 knots. NBM 75th percentile top gust shows 45-55 MPH pretty common. The strongest winds look to occur over the Sacramento Mountains. NBM 25th percentile top gust has portions of the Sacs over 70 MPH with 75th percentile over 80 MPH. GFS shows H500 winds increasing to over 100 knots with H700 over 70 knots, indicating a hydraulic jump and therefore strong downsloping flow. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for most of the Sacramento Mountains.

The trajectory of this system will largely be too far north for precip. The exception will be the Gila where the NBM shows POPs around 80% toward the AZ border rapidly decreasing toward the south and east.

With the long wave pattern keeping the trough over us, the H500 jet will remain fixed over the Southern US meaning Wednesday will remain breezy to windy. H500 flow looks to weaken with a weaker surface cyclone over eastern CO. Thus Wednesday will be a bit less windy than Tuesday, but products will likely be needed for the Sacramento Mountains with a 25th-75th percentile spread of 55 to 75 MPH. The rest of the CWA shows top gusts around 40-50 MPH at the 75th percentile. This trough passage will be dry with only a very low chance of precip across the Gila.

We do the same thing for Thursday as another jet max passes across NM with similar strength and timing to Wednesday. The main difference here is a ~1000 mb surface low over West Texas. Finally by Friday does the H500 jet begins to depart leading to decreasing winds as well as decreasing temperatures as cooler air arrives in its wake.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-FEW250, increasing to SCT150 BKN- OVC250 after 15Z. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots, becoming south/southeast 10-15 knots after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Fire conditions to gradually become elevated over the next 5 days. Warming back to well above normal today and Monday, will give way to a series of Pacific storms sweeping across northern New Mexico Tuesday through Thursday. This will result in strong, gusty winds each of those days. The winds, combined with well above normal temperatures, will begin drying small fuels as min humidity across the lowland zones approaches critical (15%) values by Wednesday and Thursday. Other than a slight chance of showers to the Gila/Black Range area, these storms likely will produce no precipitation.

Min RH: Lowlands 15-25% today through Friday, except 20-35% Tuesday. Mountains 15-30% today through Fridy, except 35-50% Tuesdsay. Vent rates poor-fair today and Monday, becoming excellent Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 44 77 52 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 41 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 73 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 36 73 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 54 36 43 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 40 74 48 64 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 38 66 41 52 / 0 0 10 60 Deming 38 76 48 66 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 37 72 44 58 / 0 0 0 40 West El Paso Metro 46 76 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 38 78 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 43 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 43 70 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 79 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 41 74 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 75 51 68 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 34 74 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 36 76 48 68 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 41 77 51 69 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 36 74 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 38 70 41 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 36 65 38 55 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 38 63 41 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 30 67 36 53 / 0 0 10 30 Hillsboro 39 72 46 60 / 0 0 10 30 Spaceport 32 73 42 64 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 30 65 37 49 / 0 0 10 70 Hurley 36 69 41 56 / 0 0 0 50 Cliff 30 71 39 57 / 0 0 10 80 Mule Creek 28 66 36 53 / 0 0 20 80 Faywood 39 68 44 56 / 0 0 10 40 Animas 38 72 47 62 / 0 0 0 30 Hachita 37 74 46 63 / 0 0 0 20 Antelope Wells 38 74 46 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 43 64 44 55 / 0 0 0 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.