textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

- Breezy through the evening hours, with some variably gusty winds along east and north facing mountain slopes overnight as well. Winds will return Monday morning, generally 20 to 30 mph with some gusts 40 to 45 mph at times. A few gusts around 50 mph will be possible in the Sacramento Mountains, especially later tonight into Monday morning.

- Critical fire weather conditions through Monday due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas.

- Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons Tuesday through the rest of the week. While some low level moisture will try to work in from the east during the overnights, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be focused east of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Deepening longwave trough over the Pacific Northwest is carving deeper into the Great Basin thanks to a shortwave trough moving across Nevada. This shortwave will move into western Colorado by tomorrow morning, before lifting into the Central Plains Monday evening.

This system will bring us continued dry southwesterly flow aloft, and a period of breezy to windy west-southwest winds from this afternoon into Monday.

Winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon, then diminish for most areas after sunset. But winds may actually increase east of the Franklin and Organ Mountains after dark, when diminish again after midnight. Breezy and gusty winds will return by mid-morning, after just a little bit of mixing. Up in the Sacramentos and Gila, expect some variability with wind speeds overnight, not necessarily following the same timing as the Franklins and Organs (see fire weather discussion for more).

Some patchy blowing dust can't be ruled out later this afternoon or early evening, but so far nothing is noted on satellite imagery, and we have a clear view today.

Going forward, a backdoor cold front will drop down the Plains in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday, scraping the eastern slopes of the Sacramentos, but not pushing any further west. Most of our area will remain in south to southwest flow on Tuesday, with temperatures remaining in the mid-80s to lower-90s, pretty close to seasonal norms.

The backdoor front will wash out and merge with the dryline by Tuesday night, and increasing convection chances in the Trans Pecos region mid-week will produce some outflow that'll try to slosh the dryline into the far eastern reaches of our CWA Wednesday morning, and again Thursday morning. But the moisture will be shallow, and will quickly mix-out to the east, keeping precip chances well east of El Paso. There are some mentionable PoPs in our far eastern fringes Wednesday and Thursday, but this is beyond our locally-produced forecast period of Days 1-3.

Breezy west to southwest winds will be common each afternoon, typical for this time of year. The westerlies look to gain the upper hand again late in the week, pushing the dryline even further to the east. Temperatures look like they'll stay in the mid-80s to lower-90s across the lowlands through the period, without much day-to-day variability.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Southwest winds are slowly increasing across the area, but perhaps lagging behind a bit at ELP and LRU. No signs of dust yet, so we've pulled back on visibility restrictions a bit. Winds look to stay below AWW criteria at ELP through the early evening hours, but look to increase after dark east of the Franklin Mountains. It's a very tough call, and recent runs of the HRRR have narrowed the focus of downslope westerlies over NE El Paso, not quite reaching the airport. We'll hold off on an AWW for the time being, but the period of most concern was 00Z to 06Z. Winds will diminish after that, though LLWS will take their place as winds stay stronger just aloft. It won't take much mixing Monday morning to bring stronger gusts back to the surface, but even then it looks like we'll be just shy of AWW criteria, with sustained 15-17 knots, and gusts 25 to 30 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Winds have been slowly increasing across the area this afternoon, with some downslope enhancement in places, and blockages in others. Winds aloft will increase tonight. For the Sacramento Mountains, high-res model runs and Wind Ninja indicate winds will diminish for a few hours after sunset, and become rather variable with direction. On the Seven Cabins fire, light ESE winds may actually develop along the NE flank of the Capitan Ridge, with WSW winds persisting elsewhere, and stronger SW winds along the ridgetop. But between Midnight and 2 AM, strong SW downslope flow looks to return, and Red Flag conditions are likely to return to favored downslope regions. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, and in the Sacramento zone, there is no break from today's RFW, though the lull and variability between sunset and midnight is noted.

Gusty winds will return by mid-morning across the wider area, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the day Monday across the remainder of the area, except for Hudspeth County, as winds there look to taper off very quickly as you head south and east of El Paso.

A backdoor cold front dropping down the Plains on Tuesday won't push west of the higher terrain, but will interrupt and weaken the pressure gradient a bit. We'll see the winds diminish as a result, though SSW winds will remain breezy in far SW New Mexico, with some gusts around 25-30 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon.

Dryline sloshing will try to bring east winds and enhanced moisture into far eastern areas each morning through the middle of the week, but thunderstorm chances look to stay out over the eastern Plains of New Mexico and the Transpecos Region in Texas. Breezy SW winds will continue in the afternoon, strongest to the west of the Rio Grande, and flirting with, but likely falling short of the lower end of Red Flag criteria through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 67 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 63 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 84 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 76 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 83 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 88 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 88 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 85 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 75 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 73 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 71 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 47 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 55 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 75 32 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 82 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 77 38 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 79 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 83 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 83 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 47 81 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT Monday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.