textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

- Record warmth this week, lowland highs in the lower to mid seventies.

- Increasing clouds Wednesday and Thursday with a low chance of rain showers west of the Continental Divide.

..NEXT WEEKEND

Global models show good agreement in the development of a Rex blocking pattern along the Pacific coast next weekend. The eventual evolution of the Pacific cutoff low at the base of this pattern will greatly determine the weather forecast for next weekend and the last few days of the year. El Paso's region would be positioned under the diffluent southwest flow ahead of the low, thus opening the door for widespread precipitation chances as both Pacific and Gulf of America moisture is advected north into the area.

Confidence is also increasing in a polar surface high developing across the central Plains around the Sunday-Monday timeframe, which would force a cold front and cool us back down to near normal (lowland highs in the mid to upper 50s) before New Year's Eve. There's always a chance that when cold air intrusions are timed well with Pacific low pressure systems, wintry precipitation is possible. Will need to monitor model trends over the next few days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

High pressure building over the Rockies will lead to light and variable winds over the next 24 hours. Mostly northerly flow this morning tries to shift to the south and southeast in the afternoon, only to fall back to drainage flows tonight. High clouds will slowly increase from west to east, with BKN 200-250 common by 12Z Wed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 514 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

Broad upper level ridging will slowly shift east this week. This will lead to some increasing high cloud cover in the next 24 hours, but temperatures will remain well above normal, and breaking daily records in many places.

There's a very slight chance of rain showers sneaking into the Gila Region from Arizona on Wednesday, but these will most likely fall as virga or a few sprinkles. The NBM is likely too high with precip chances through Thursday.

Cooler temperatures will start to work into the area Saturday and especially Sunday as backdoor front pushes in from the northeast. Meanwhile, troughing will develop off the California coast. If it digs deep enough, it could try to pull some moisture into the area for the backdoor front to work with, but uncertainty remains high.

In the meantime, the main fire weather concern will be limited vent rates outside the Gila Region today, but we'll see slow improvement through the week, starting with the higher terrain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 47 75 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 40 71 45 72 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 42 72 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 56 40 51 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 43 69 47 71 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 44 64 46 64 / 0 20 40 30 Deming 40 74 46 75 / 0 0 20 10 Lordsburg 41 67 47 70 / 0 10 30 20 West El Paso Metro 47 72 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 36 74 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 43 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 40 69 49 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 40 75 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 43 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 47 73 52 74 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 38 71 45 72 / 0 0 10 10 Hatch 39 74 45 75 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 40 72 50 75 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 47 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 70 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 66 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 35 64 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 64 40 65 / 0 0 10 10 Hillsboro 46 70 47 71 / 0 0 20 10 Spaceport 39 70 44 72 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 31 64 42 62 / 0 20 40 30 Hurley 41 68 45 68 / 0 10 30 20 Cliff 35 69 44 70 / 0 20 40 30 Mule Creek 33 64 43 65 / 10 20 50 40 Faywood 42 67 47 68 / 0 10 20 20 Animas 45 69 48 73 / 0 10 30 20 Hachita 44 69 47 73 / 0 0 20 10 Antelope Wells 42 71 48 75 / 0 0 20 10 Cloverdale 47 66 51 67 / 0 10 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.