textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Scattered storms develop this afternoon with heavy rainfall and strong winds being the primary hazards into the evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect. - After today, expect continued daily thunderstorm chances focusing over area mountains and western locations. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1007 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The most active day of the period is expected today thanks to the frontal boundary that brought added moisture to the region last night. A subtle shortwave rotates around the monsoon high from the north during the day, sparking scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon over area mtns, progressing S through the evening.

Dew points well into the 50s and PWs in the 1.2-1.3" range will result in heavy downpours from this convection and efficient rain producers. The north-to-south storm motion will allow for storms to redevelop over the mtns, especially the Sacs, with multiple cells moving over the same location. 1-2" of rain is likely over the high elevations of the Sacs and west slopes with potential for up to 3", where the flood threat is highest. The lowlands have a lower flood risk with a wider range of outcomes due to the more scattered coverage. Still, storms will be capable of producing 1-2" in a short amount of time. Las Cruces and southern Dona Ana County have a higher risk than surrounding areas according to the latest model data, including the REFS. The activity drifts into Mexico after midnight with clearing skies overnight. Strong to severe winds are the second biggest threat after flash flooding due to DCAPE values approaching 2000 and a relatively dry sub-cloud layer. HREF data shows potential for gusts to 60 mph from outflows, basically over the entire CWA, although the two areas to watch for are near Lordsburg and the Tularosa Basin. BLDU is possible along the I-10 corridor in the early evening. Small hail is possible as well with CAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg and about 20kts of bulk shear.

The rest of the forecast period is not very note-worthy as the monsoon high sits over the AZ/Las Vegas region. It'll stretch into NM with shortwaves trying to rotate around from the north and east. Mostly dry conditions are expected after today with storm chances favoring area mtns and out west each afternoon and evening. Gusty outflows will be the primary threat for the lowlands. The best moisture (PWs 1-1.2") will be focused west with heavy downpours possible. Temps will be a few degrees above normal through next week with the warmest temps expected on Tue, including possible Heat Advisories for the lower RGV.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon. Primary threat has been very gusty outflow winds from thunderstorms (with some concerns for dust once again). Some wind gusts today have been upwards of 40-50KT. Thunderstorm activity will persist the next several hours working north to south. Storms will start to lose energy after sunset transitioning to more showery activity. By around midnight tonight, things are expected to have calmed down with some lingering clouds overhead. Generally light winds outside of thunderstorms continues through overnight. Less active tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1007 AM MDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening, progressing from north to south. Heavy downpours, strong outflow winds, and frequent lightning are the main threats today. Gusts to 60 mph are possible. Otherwise, winds will be light from E- SE. The convection clears out overnight with drier conditions for Sun. Isolated to scattered storms in area mtns Sun afternoon with gusty winds. Winds shift more S on Sun, remaining light outside of outflows. Temps will be a touch cooler on Sun. Low storm chances continue over area mtns and out west into the middle of next week. Mainly dry elsewhere with warmer than normal temps and light winds.

Min RHs range from 20-50% through Sun, then 15-35%. Vent rates will be fair to good this weekend, then good to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 98 75 101 / 50 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 93 67 96 / 30 10 10 0 Las Cruces 68 96 69 100 / 50 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 95 72 100 / 50 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 72 52 76 / 60 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 69 97 71 100 / 30 0 10 10 Silver City 64 90 65 93 / 30 30 20 60 Deming 68 97 70 101 / 40 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 97 71 99 / 40 10 10 20 West El Paso Metro 74 97 76 100 / 50 10 0 0 Dell City 69 97 70 101 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 101 75 104 / 40 10 0 0 Loma Linda 67 91 69 94 / 40 10 0 0 Fabens 73 99 74 101 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 96 73 100 / 50 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 96 75 100 / 50 0 0 10 Jornada Range 68 96 71 100 / 50 0 0 0 Hatch 68 100 71 103 / 40 0 0 0 Columbus 72 98 73 101 / 40 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 94 69 99 / 50 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 84 58 88 / 50 20 10 20 Mescalero 55 84 58 88 / 60 20 10 10 Timberon 53 81 55 86 / 40 10 0 10 Winston 60 89 60 92 / 30 20 10 20 Hillsboro 65 95 67 99 / 30 10 10 20 Spaceport 66 95 68 100 / 40 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 90 59 92 / 30 40 20 60 Hurley 64 93 66 95 / 30 20 10 50 Cliff 67 97 67 99 / 30 30 10 40 Mule Creek 65 93 66 95 / 20 30 10 40 Faywood 65 92 67 95 / 40 10 10 30 Animas 70 97 71 99 / 50 0 10 10 Hachita 68 96 69 98 / 40 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 69 95 69 98 / 50 10 10 20 Cloverdale 66 92 66 92 / 50 10 20 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.