textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Monitoring for patchy fog this morning, and again Sunday morning with cool temperatures, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Pleasant weather over the next couple days with dry conditions and typical mid-November temperatures.

- Slight chance of rain showers for west-central New Mexico on Tuesday as a storm system crosses the Central Rockies. Temperatures warming a bit later in the week, with lowland highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MST Sat Nov 14 2026

We saw some rain showers this morning, some light snow in the Sacramento Mountains last night and some breezy winds this afternoon. All of this was caused by a one-two upper level trough punch that moved across New Mexico in the last 24 hours. By Sunday morning the upper level trough will be well to our east, this will give us some light winds and our skies will see less clouds. With the moisture in the ground, we could see some patchy fog develop Sunday morning. The challenge will be how much fog will form. If some clouds stick around or the winds stay up just enough we won't see the fog form. Most likely locations for fog will be the Tularosa basin, the Rio Grande Valley north of Las Cruces or the Gila region. Aloft on Sunday we will have a dry northwest flow which will keep our high temperatures on Sunday running a little below average.

On Monday a short wave upper level ridge will move across the region. Normally this will start a warming trend, but at the surface we will see a weak backdoor (east to west moving) cold front which will usher in some cooler air. So high temperatures on Monday will run 3 to 5 degrees below average. By Tuesday our upper level flow will turn more to the southwest as the next upper level trough gets organized along the west coast. The southwest flow aloft will help warm our high temperatures to near seasonal averages. Tuesday evening the before mentioned upper level trough will move across the Four Corners area and that that will bring a chance for rain to the Gila region, but the rest of us will stay dry. We won't see much of a temperature change for our high temperatures on Wednesday, but by Thursday and Friday we will see high temperatures running 3 to 5 degrees above average as yet another upper level trough along the west coast strengthens our southwest flow aloft. By Friday afternoon the upper level trough will be passing just north of the Four Corners area. This will be too far north to give us much of a precipitation threat, but it will give us some breezy winds Friday afternoon. For next weekend, we will be dry but another weak back door cold front will drop our temperatures back to near average or a little below average.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

VMC through forecast period under northwest flow aloft. Skies FEW-SCT060 this morning, with much less patchy fog than expected. Higher confidence in no VIS reductions at terminals this morning. Mostly sunny skies today with surface winds generally 010-070 AOB 5 knots. We'll have another shot at fog tomorrow night, but again low confidence in any direct impacts to local TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 430 AM MST Sun Nov 15 2026

Low fire danger due to recent wetness and ERCs below normal. Very light wind today will keep vent rates Poor across Southern New Mexico. Skies will be mostly sunny with dry conditions and typical mid-November temperatures. Wind increasing slightly out of the east Monday afternoon, generally 5 to 10 mph with a few hours of Fair vent rates.

A Pacific low will sweep across the Central Rockies Tuesday- Wednesday. This will bring a slight chance of rain showers to Gila NF, but any precipitation is expected to be light as the system remains too far north. Wind shifting to the SSW 10 to 20 mph Tuesday afternoon, with Good vent rates across Western New Mexico.

Rest of the week ahead shows southwest winds and dry conditions. Conditions could be breezy Friday into the weekend as another system misses us to the north. Temperatures will warm a few degrees late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 44 64 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 41 59 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 61 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 39 62 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 43 31 46 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 39 61 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 58 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 39 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 41 63 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 46 64 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 42 59 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 68 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 40 56 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 44 67 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 42 63 44 67 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 45 62 44 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 37 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 65 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 42 65 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 41 61 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 32 54 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 31 55 34 58 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 28 51 31 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 56 34 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 38 61 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 37 62 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 31 61 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 35 60 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 67 40 66 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 35 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 39 59 41 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 41 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 39 63 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 62 43 63 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.