textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 436 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with much of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas above 100 degrees. The warmest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread Heat Advisories likely. - Very dry early this week before some moisture gives the high terrain a low chance of thunderstorms later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Broad, elongated subtropical high remains fixed over Sonora/Gulf of California, leading to a stagnant surface high over Arizona this weekend. Prevailing west/northwest flow has scoured out moisture allowing precipitable water to fall to 0.6-0.8". 00Z KEPZ sounding confirms this dry-out. No rain chances Sunday through at least next Tuesday because of this.

Main headline over the next several days will be heat. Subtropical high will slowly progress over the region this weekend, centering directly overhead by Monday-Tuesday. Lowland temperatures will reach or surpass 100 degrees each afternoon and looks to stay that way through the week ahead. The hottest days will be Monday-Wednesday, with the Rio Grande Valley reaching 104-108 degrees. While this is typical for late June, it's still impactful heat. Heat Advisories will be needed for El Paso, and perhaps much of the I-10/I-25 corridors.

Shortwaves moving across the Central Rockies midweek will flatten the subtropical high and weaken it somewhat after next Wednesday. This should allow temperatures to "cool" a few degrees, though still likely above 100 degrees for El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley. Slight increases in moisture will also allow for the return of thunderstorm chances Wednesday-Friday next week. Currently, this looks to be mostly limited to the high terrain (Black Range, Sacramento Mountains), with most of the lowlands remaining dry and hot into the final week of June.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 436 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds AOB 8kts this morning, then gusty winds from W to 20-25kts develop this afternoon. Winds subside after sunset. Mainly SKC expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 436 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Somewhat breezy and very dry conditions are forecast today, resulting in elevated fire weather in the Gila Nat'l Forest and surrounding lowlands. Winds will be strongest from the west in southwestern New Mexico, lighter to the east. Northern areas will see close to 10 hours of single digit RHs today, especially the northern Gila. Overnight recoveries will be very poor tonight. Rain chances remain near zero through Tuesday as temperatures heat up under the high pressure aloft. Fuels will continue to worsen early this week as winds become lighter after today. Very low humidities persist into midweek. The upper high weakens a bit later in the week, allowing some moisture to rotate into the region and provide area mtns with a low chance of thunderstorms. Dry lightning may be a threat Wed-Fri. Temperatures cool slightly after midweek.

Min RHs range from 5-15% through Tue, then 10-25%. Ventilation will be excellent today, then good to excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 105 77 107 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 101 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 102 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 68 103 72 103 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 95 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 105 69 106 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 100 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 103 68 106 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 106 75 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 71 106 73 108 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 103 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 67 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 66 106 70 107 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 104 75 106 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 100 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 57 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 55 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 58 96 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 102 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 54 97 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 62 98 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 101 64 104 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 97 62 100 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 64 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 100 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 100 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 95 66 97 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.