textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1026 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances lower early next week with drier and warmer conditions expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Summer time Rex Block pattern continues over much of the US. Cut- off low over the southern Texas Panhandle/Permian Basin continues to very slowly drift west. Upper high persisting over the northern Plains/upper Midwest. Some wrap around moisture with the upper low will fill in the drying slot that had resided over the CWA the past few days. This will help in getting PWs well above an inch.

Friday through Sunday...as mentioned above, PWs increase significantly, as high as 1.3-1.5 inches by Friday night and Saturday. Mid level cooling should also help with destabilization. In other words we are expecting an increase in thunderstorm activity across the area. Threat of flooding will increase, especially if the PWs approach 1.50 inches (150% of normal).

Monday and beyond...models are coming closer together as we sail through the new week ahead. Older runs had diverged, with GFS moving moisture out of the forecast area by Monday, while the ECMWF held onto the moisture much longer. Latest set of models are getting a bit closer in solution, though GFS still about one day faster with the drying pattern. Monday looks to be transition day back to drier pattern for GFS as it begins moving low/inverted trough west toward Arizona, this would still keep thunderstorms around but best coverage would be out west toward Arizona. ECMWF still keeps the inverted trough over the CWA for another active convective day on Monday. GFS definitely drier by Tuesday with PWs back below one inch and chances of rain limited to the far west. ECMWF much like the GFS on Monday, with inverted trough out over the western CWA with best chances of rain in that area. By Wednesday, both models have the upper high oriented east-west over Colorado and the southern Plains with the southerly flow and moisture off to our west. Temperatures through the week remaining below normal until around Wednesday/Thursday with fewer clouds and much less rain activity, when they should climb back to seasonable levels.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Generally VFR conditions with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN070CB 4SM -TSRA until around 07Z-08Z. Wind gusts to 30 knots near storms. Otherwise surface winds variable 7-10 knots overnight. Scattered thunderstorms developing over the mountains after 18Z, and then spreading to the lowlands after 20Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With the exception of burn scar flooding, fire weather concerns will be minimal for the next several days. Below normal temperatures and healthy surface moisture will keep min RH values well above critical thresholds with moderate to strong overnight recoveries. A slowly approaching UL low will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances with heavy rainfall and flash flooding the main concern. This will be particularly true of any recent burn scar areas. Outside of thunderstorm influences, winds will be light with poor to good venting each afternoon. Warmer and drier conditions will begin toward the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 94 72 92 / 10 20 50 30 Sierra Blanca 62 88 63 87 / 10 30 30 70 Las Cruces 67 91 65 90 / 20 30 60 40 Alamogordo 66 89 66 89 / 20 50 50 50 Cloudcroft 50 67 49 68 / 20 80 50 80 Truth or Consequences 69 91 68 91 / 10 50 30 60 Silver City 60 83 59 83 / 20 50 40 60 Deming 65 94 65 91 / 10 20 40 40 Lordsburg 64 88 64 88 / 30 30 40 30 West El Paso Metro 73 93 72 91 / 10 20 60 30 Dell City 65 90 67 91 / 10 40 30 60 Fort Hancock 70 95 71 93 / 0 30 40 60 Loma Linda 66 86 64 84 / 10 50 40 50 Fabens 70 95 70 93 / 10 20 50 40 Santa Teresa 70 91 68 89 / 10 20 60 30 White Sands HQ 73 91 71 91 / 10 50 50 50 Jornada Range 68 91 66 90 / 10 50 50 40 Hatch 68 95 67 94 / 20 30 40 50 Columbus 71 95 70 91 / 20 20 60 40 Orogrande 66 89 66 88 / 10 40 50 40 Mayhill 55 77 54 79 / 10 90 40 90 Mescalero 54 77 53 78 / 20 80 40 80 Timberon 52 74 51 75 / 10 80 50 70 Winston 59 82 57 82 / 20 70 30 70 Hillsboro 65 89 64 88 / 10 60 30 60 Spaceport 66 91 64 90 / 20 50 40 50 Lake Roberts 61 84 59 84 / 20 50 30 70 Hurley 61 87 60 86 / 20 40 40 60 Cliff 63 89 63 89 / 20 30 30 60 Mule Creek 60 85 59 85 / 30 30 20 60 Faywood 64 86 62 86 / 10 40 40 60 Animas 65 88 65 88 / 30 40 30 50 Hachita 63 89 64 88 / 30 30 40 40 Antelope Wells 65 89 65 88 / 10 40 40 60 Cloverdale 62 82 62 82 / 30 40 30 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.