textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return Monday, though they will not be quite as strong as what we saw Sunday.

- Gusty winds and blowing dust will be possible in parts of southwestern New Mexico with storms Monday afternoon.

- Triple digit temperatures will return midweek.

- Some monsoonal moisture looks to seep into southwestern New Mexico towards the middle of the week as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

One of the most impressive severe thunderstorms I've seen at EPZ struck this past evening, dumping 1.89 inches of rain, and producing gusts of 68 mph. Luckily the worst of that cell stayed just west of the suburban areas of Santa Teresa and west El Paso, otherwise we'd have been looking at widespread damaging wind gusts and higher-end flooding.

Storms did later spread east into urban El Paso, producing mostly low-end flooding in the usual places, but also a gust to 74 mph at the airport. Much like our gust at Santa T, this seemed to be fairly limited in area, and we've received no reports of damage. Pictures have circulated showing large culverts strewn across the I-10 Gateway Blvd near Airway, but it is not known if wind or water deposited them there.

Residual outflow boundaries are helping to maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms that are arcing back from the Lower Valley into the Black Range. Expect brief heavy downpours with some of these storms. We've seen some instantaneous rainfall rates at gauges in Las Cruces just under 1 inch per hour, but it doesn't seem to be lasting long enough to cause much worry.

These showers and storms will continue for several more hours, slowly diminishing after midnight. Could still have some debris clouds and a few sprinkles around Las Cruces and El Paso towards dawn.

Northwest flow aloft will continue, and another disturbance will bring renewed showers and thunderstorms to the area on Monday. Storms look to start in the Gila and spread southeast again, with some gusty wind potential again, spreading a little further west. Shear and instability won't be quite as strong as today (we had 45 knots of deep layer shear on the 00Z RAOB), but some of our more dust-prone areas may be impacted near and west of DMN.

Drier and hotter conditions look to settle in Tuesday through Thursday, though we're starting to see signs of monsoonal moisture seeping in from the Sierra Madres into SE Arizona and SW New Mexico through mid-week. A Gulf Surge into southern Arizona Tuesday night looks to improve low level moisture out west of the Divide, and some of this will spill into SW NM on westerly flow mid-week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity should gradually diminish through 14z with another round of ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA expected again later this afternoon and evening though coverage and intensity are a little in doubt. Winds will generally be light and variable, favoring the west this afternoon, except around thunderstorms. Skies will be variable with bases as low as 050.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Moisture will remain in place for today, which will lead to showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon though coverage is a little uncertain given ongoing showers this morning. Afternoon humidity will range near 20% at the Arizona border to well over 30% in Hudspeth County with higher values in higher elevations. Winds will be light except near any shower or thunderstorm outflow.

Hotter and drier conditions arrive for Tuesday, lasting through Thursday. Afternoon humidity will drop into the lower teens for most locations. The exception will be toward the AZ border will moisture will slowly creep in. This area will also see a chance for showers and thunderstorms. By Friday, increased moisture will lead to more widespread shower and storm chance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 99 76 105 / 40 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 93 65 99 / 60 0 0 0 Las Cruces 63 96 68 101 / 50 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 96 69 102 / 30 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 75 53 79 / 50 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 66 97 70 101 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 60 92 63 91 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 64 101 70 102 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 98 68 97 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 98 75 102 / 40 0 0 0 Dell City 63 96 65 104 / 40 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 69 99 71 105 / 40 0 0 0 Loma Linda 64 90 67 96 / 30 0 0 0 Fabens 68 99 72 106 / 30 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 65 96 71 101 / 40 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 96 75 102 / 50 0 0 0 Jornada Range 64 96 66 100 / 50 0 0 0 Hatch 63 99 67 103 / 30 0 0 0 Columbus 69 100 76 100 / 50 0 0 0 Orogrande 64 95 66 100 / 40 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 86 59 91 / 30 0 0 0 Mescalero 53 86 57 90 / 40 0 0 0 Timberon 51 82 54 87 / 30 10 0 0 Winston 56 89 60 92 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 93 67 97 / 20 0 0 10 Spaceport 61 96 63 100 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 93 57 93 / 20 0 0 10 Hurley 60 94 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 61 98 62 97 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 93 61 92 / 30 0 0 10 Faywood 62 93 66 94 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 65 97 66 97 / 20 0 0 0 Hachita 64 98 67 97 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 96 66 96 / 20 0 0 10 Cloverdale 61 91 62 90 / 30 10 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.