textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, favoring western New Mexico. Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding. Rain chances will continue into next week.

- Temperatures will remain slightly above normal with lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

A large UL ridge is covering much of the CONUS with its center just off the Gulf Coast of TX and LA. This pattern has steered a rich moisture plume our way with the 00Z EPZ sounding showing 1.56" of PW. Lack of UL forcing (possibly even a little bit of background subsidence) and morning cloud coverage did a good job of limiting convective coverage this afternoon, especially along and east of the Rio Grande. Satellite imagery hints at a weak disturbance over Northern Chihuahua, which will slowly lift north overnight tonight and into the morning. Guidance is not particularly helpful on whether this disturbance will bring showers and storms north of the border. The HRRR has given a different solution with every iteration. Nevertheless, it will bring clouds, and that may work to hinder our storm chances again for Saturday. Regardless, our pattern looks to be largely the same otherwise, very moist (~1.5" PW) with the westward extension of the ridge overhead, so expect a forecast similar to today with scattered mountain storms and isolated to scattered coverage in the lowlands, largely depending on how much cloud/rain lingers into the morning. Heavy rain will be the main concern.

By Sunday we begin a slow drying trend as the subtropical ridge's influence increases over the CWA. PW values will drop to around 1.25" with H500 temps around -4 degrees C. Convective coverage will drop, especially for the lowlands, but everyone will continue to see at least modest rain/storm chances with mountains and western lowlands favored, and this pattern will hold steady through at least the middle of next week. The UL high will continue to extend its influence into NM with the healthiest moisture plume west of the Continental Divide. As we get into Wednesday and beyond the GFS and Euro diverge with the Euro building the ridge over the Desert SW with moisture trapped beneath it while the GFS sends the ridge well to our east with a trough influencing our weather. The Euro would continue this pattern of scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms while the GFS would bring widespread rain/storm chances. Looking at the LREF 500 mb heights, I'd say the truth will lie somewhere in the middle though probably more ridgy than troughy (not a real word).

Temperatures throughout the period look to more or less hold steady, running about 5 degrees above normal, which is upper the 80s to near 90 this time of year for the lowlands.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 PM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will continue with variable skies with bases around 100. Otherwise, it is a bit of a low confidence forecast, especially through 12z. Radar shows a cluster of showers and storms over Mexico, and forecast guidance has been unhelpful in determining how far north these storms will move, including if there will be any impacts at ELP.

After 18z, additional SHRA/TSRA is expected to develop, but confidence on timing and occurrence has precluded mention of TSRA in TAF sites.

Outside of storms, winds will be light, mostly from the SW at ELP and W to NW at other sites with speeds under 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1014 AM MDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the middle of next week. For this afternoon, storm chances will be limited to area mtns with storm motion to the NE as clouds slowly erode. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing high rain rates and gusts to 30 mph. Prevailing winds will be light from the W-SW today. Better storm coverage is forecast for the lowlands tonight, favoring far west TX. Overnight recoveries will be very good to excellent.

For Sat, isolated storm coverage is expected depending on how much clouds stick around in the AM. Gusty outflow winds and brief downpours are the main threats for Sat. Light and variable winds expected otherwise. From Sun onward, storm chances and heavy rainfall favor western areas with more isolated coverage elsewhere. Moisture levels remain above normal for early Sep next week. Winds stay light, shifting more E-SE this weekend.

Min RHs range from 25-35% in the lowlands into next week, 35-60% in the mtns. Vent rates will be poor to good through Sat, then mostly fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 96 73 96 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 65 92 64 91 / 40 20 20 10 Las Cruces 66 93 68 94 / 10 20 20 10 Alamogordo 68 94 68 93 / 10 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 50 70 50 69 / 10 70 20 60 Truth or Consequences 68 91 70 93 / 50 20 20 20 Silver City 61 86 63 87 / 10 20 20 30 Deming 66 94 68 95 / 10 10 20 10 Lordsburg 66 91 68 94 / 10 10 10 20 West El Paso Metro 73 95 74 95 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 69 96 69 95 / 30 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 72 97 72 98 / 40 20 20 10 Loma Linda 66 89 67 88 / 20 30 30 10 Fabens 70 96 71 96 / 30 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 69 93 70 94 / 20 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 72 93 73 94 / 10 20 20 10 Jornada Range 67 93 68 94 / 20 20 20 10 Hatch 68 95 70 97 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 71 94 72 95 / 20 20 20 10 Orogrande 66 93 68 93 / 10 10 20 10 Mayhill 56 83 56 82 / 10 70 20 50 Mescalero 55 82 55 81 / 10 60 10 60 Timberon 54 80 54 80 / 10 40 20 50 Winston 57 82 59 84 / 40 40 20 40 Hillsboro 66 89 68 91 / 30 40 20 30 Spaceport 65 92 67 93 / 40 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 55 85 57 86 / 20 40 20 50 Hurley 62 88 63 90 / 10 10 10 20 Cliff 62 93 65 95 / 20 10 20 30 Mule Creek 61 89 63 91 / 10 10 20 20 Faywood 64 88 66 89 / 20 20 20 20 Animas 66 90 67 94 / 20 10 10 20 Hachita 66 91 67 93 / 20 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 65 90 66 93 / 20 20 20 20 Cloverdale 62 84 63 87 / 20 20 20 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.