textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Our historic March heat wave continues on Sunday with lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s. We will likely set daily and monthly record high temperatures again Sunday afternoon.

- Very dry conditions on Sunday and most of next week with single digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire concerns for the time being, but some afternoon breeziness is possible on Sunday afternoon leading to elevated fire weather concerns in area mountains.

- Some minor relief from the heat on Monday and again next Friday and Saturday as pair of backdoor cool fronts move in. Still temperatures will be well above normal those days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Upper level high pressure is the name of the game on Sunday and through out much of the coming week. We set another daily and monthly record high temperature on Saturday and we could set both again on Sunday as a large upper ridge continues to dominate our weather. Late Sunday night and into early Monday a back door cold front will slip across the region. While we will see some cooling behind the front (5 to 10 degrees), it is possible that El Paso will set another record high temperature on Monday as well. Let that sink in. Behind a cold front with 5 to 10 degrees of cooling we will still be near or even exceed record high temperatures.

The ridge aloft, which had weakened a bit on Monday, roars back to life and will remain anchored across the desert southwest through the end of the week. We will continue to see daily record and possibly even more monthly record high temperatures set on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday the ridge will begin to weaken and we will see another back door cold front move across the region. This front will "cool" temperatures back down to only 4 to 8 degrees above average for next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Our ceilings will continue to be unlimited tonight and through out the day on Sunday. We will have light west or southwest winds tonight and those generally light winds will continue on Sunday. We will see some low end gusty winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Main fire weather concern continues to be the very low humidity and drying out of fuels. Humidity will be well above critical criteria for this weekend and most of next week. Some afternoon breezes over zones 110/111 this afternoon and Sunday, but otherwise no significant wind expected until perhaps next Thursday. Back door front moving in Sunday night and Monday will briefly switch winds more east/southeast. Aiding in the drying out this week will be high temperatures that continue about 10-20 degrees above normal.

Min RH: Lowlands 5-10% through Friday, except 8-16% Monday. Mountains 7-13% through Friday, except 10-20% Monday. Vent rates fair-good this afternoon, then good-excellent Sunday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 96 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 92 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 52 93 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 94 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 71 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 56 92 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 84 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 95 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 90 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 95 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 96 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 99 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 88 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 97 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 94 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 95 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 94 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 51 96 50 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 96 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 93 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 54 86 38 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 83 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 52 81 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 85 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 57 91 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 92 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 84 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 87 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 91 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 51 86 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 56 88 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 91 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 92 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.