textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, limited to Southwest New Mexico.

- Warm temperatures over the next couple days, with lowland highs in the 80s. This is slightly above normal for late October.

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night through Friday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

- The flood threat lingers for eastern areas this weekend before storm chances decrease early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A large upper low will make "landfall" over southern California later tonight. To our southeast, an upper level ridge is spinning away leaving us sandwiched in between the two systems. Anomalously high moisture is being pushed into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will pop up initially over the AZ/NM border during the middle afternoon today and looks to continue into later tonight before fizzling away. Thunderstorms have the potential to become strong to severe today where damaging wind gusts (58+ mph) and/or severe hail (1"+) is possible. A Marginal risk (Level 1/5) for severe thunderstorms is in effect today encompassing the area along and west of the Continental Divide.

The upper low starts to lift out over SoCal and southern NV area Thursday afternoon. PW values will reach 1.1"-1.2" which would be in record breaking category. In addition, plenty of dynamics associated with this upper trough where 30-40kt of 0-6km shear expected Thursday afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected generally along and west of the Rio Grande. A Marginal Risk is in effect for the Rio Grande and west. A small area of a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) in portions of the Gila region tomorrow. Damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and even a small risk for a tornado or two possible Thursday afternoon generally along and west of the Continental Divide. A Flood Watch has been issued for the Gila region Thursday starting at noon through 6 AM Friday morning. Models have been focusing over this region for heavy accumulations around 2" or so. The anomalous moisture in the air will promote heavy rainfall in a short amount of time.

A piece of energy pinches off of the main upper trough Friday which will only continue the threat of flooding and severe weather. Drier air does look like it will have made it into far western portions of the area but elsewhere will have a good chance to see thunderstorms. PWs look to drop to around 1", which is still well above normal plus 30-40kt of bulk shear. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern. Another Marginal risk for severe weather is in effect for the central portions of the CWA Friday.

Heading into Saturday, the second closed low will provide a source of lift for thunderstorms again focusing east of the Continental Divide. PWs do dip at this time to 0.8"-1" focusing out east, so flash flooding will still be a concern. Bulk shear will be around 35-50kt that afternoon allowing for another round of severe weather likely. The second low finally starts to lift out Sunday morning drying out much of the area from west to east. Some lingering storm chances Sunday for far eastern locations that afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Thunderstorms will pop up in the middle afternoon hours over at the NM/AZ border and will expand in coverage where KDMN and KTCS could see a thunderstorm but not enough confidence to issue in TAFs. Light breezes through the TAF period with increasing high clouds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead as min RHs stay above critical thresholds and 20 foot winds stay 5-10 mph each afternoon. Min RH values across the lowlands will be 30-50% each afternoon through early next week. Min RHs will be anywhere from 50- 80% in the area mountains each day. Continued rain chances each day.

Focus for storms Thursday will be along and west of the Rio Grande. Mostly areawide chances Friday, but drier air does push into far western locations Saturday dampening chances out that way, but elsewhere will still have good chances. Lingering storm chances exist for far west TX and Otero Co Sunday. Each day through Saturday and potentially into Sunday will feature a risk for flash flooding, hail, and severe wind gusts in the strongest storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 86 63 81 / 0 20 40 50 Sierra Blanca 58 83 59 79 / 0 0 10 30 Las Cruces 61 82 57 76 / 10 30 60 50 Alamogordo 59 83 59 77 / 0 10 50 70 Cloudcroft 46 63 46 57 / 0 10 50 80 Truth or Consequences 59 78 57 73 / 10 50 70 50 Silver City 57 73 53 68 / 30 60 90 60 Deming 61 83 56 76 / 20 50 80 60 Lordsburg 62 80 57 76 / 40 60 60 30 West El Paso Metro 68 86 65 80 / 0 20 40 50 Dell City 59 85 60 82 / 0 0 20 40 Fort Hancock 64 91 64 88 / 0 10 10 50 Loma Linda 58 79 58 76 / 0 10 20 60 Fabens 64 89 63 85 / 0 20 30 60 Santa Teresa 64 85 61 79 / 0 20 50 50 White Sands HQ 64 85 62 79 / 10 20 60 60 Jornada Range 61 83 58 76 / 10 30 70 40 Hatch 61 84 58 78 / 20 40 80 60 Columbus 64 86 60 79 / 10 50 60 30 Orogrande 60 83 58 78 / 0 10 50 60 Mayhill 50 73 51 69 / 0 0 30 80 Mescalero 50 74 50 68 / 0 10 40 80 Timberon 49 70 48 65 / 0 0 50 80 Winston 51 69 49 67 / 10 50 80 50 Hillsboro 60 78 55 73 / 20 50 90 60 Spaceport 59 80 56 74 / 10 30 70 50 Lake Roberts 54 72 49 68 / 30 60 100 60 Hurley 57 76 52 71 / 30 60 90 60 Cliff 59 79 56 75 / 40 80 70 30 Mule Creek 55 73 53 70 / 60 90 100 40 Faywood 59 76 54 70 / 20 50 80 70 Animas 61 82 57 78 / 30 60 60 20 Hachita 60 82 57 78 / 30 50 60 40 Antelope Wells 60 84 58 81 / 30 50 60 10 Cloverdale 58 79 55 74 / 30 50 50 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.