textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 341 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

- Dry weather Saturday and Sunday. Slight warmup over the Memorial Day weekend, with lowland highs in the lower 90s.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Memorial Day. Best chances will be across central New Mexico and Far West Texas during the afternoon hours. Storms will be capable of sudden rain and gusty outflow winds.

..TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Much larger upper low off the Pacific NW will sit over the Great Basin rest of next week, absorbing Monday's orphan low and maintaining a dry, southwest flow regime across Southern New Mexico. Low level moisture will be quickly flushes east on Tuesday. We may see some lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes of the forecast area (Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountains), but this will allow the return of dry conditions for the Rio Grande Valley. Dryline boundary development will sit just to our east, and models currently keep this moisture off to the east over SE New Mexico and Trans-Pecos in West Texas. Temperatures will be warm, but near normal with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM MDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT100, with ocnl BKN080 over the mountains, til 03Z, then SKC. Surface winds southwest 8-12 knots til 03Z, then variable AOB 7 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday with Min RH 8-15% and light south winds 5 to 10 mph. Strong afternoon mixing with heights 12K-13K feet and scattered cumulus. No precipitation expected. Very Good ventilation with transport to the NNE. No overnight weather concerns.

Increased surface humidity on Monday 20-30% along with greater cloud coverage. Moisture flow out of the south along with an approaching upper low will lead to scattered (60-80%) showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Storm coverage will favor areas along the east of the Rio Grande, including Lincoln National Forest and the Capitan Range. Main concern will be erratic, sudden outflow winds around storms. Rain rates will be on the lower end due in part to a more shallow mid-level moisture profile, thus lower than usual risk for burn scar flooding.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible for LNF again Tuesday afternoon, with the rest of Southwest New Mexico becoming dry again. Rest of the week looks dry with the return of dry air and breezy southwest winds. Currently not anticipating any Red Flags next week, but conditions will be Near Critical.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 94 70 91 / 0 0 0 80 Sierra Blanca 56 89 59 87 / 0 0 0 50 Las Cruces 54 91 59 87 / 0 0 10 80 Alamogordo 59 91 62 88 / 0 0 0 70 Cloudcroft 44 69 46 67 / 0 0 10 70 Truth or Consequences 59 90 61 83 / 0 0 10 80 Silver City 52 84 56 77 / 0 0 30 70 Deming 56 93 60 89 / 0 0 10 50 Lordsburg 55 89 60 84 / 0 0 30 50 West El Paso Metro 63 92 67 89 / 0 0 10 80 Dell City 55 92 57 90 / 0 0 0 50 Fort Hancock 60 96 66 95 / 0 0 0 80 Loma Linda 58 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 70 Fabens 58 95 64 93 / 0 0 0 80 Santa Teresa 56 90 62 88 / 0 0 10 70 White Sands HQ 66 92 70 88 / 0 0 10 80 Jornada Range 55 91 60 86 / 0 0 0 80 Hatch 56 94 60 88 / 0 0 10 80 Columbus 61 93 65 89 / 0 0 10 40 Orogrande 57 90 61 87 / 0 0 0 80 Mayhill 48 81 51 78 / 0 0 0 70 Mescalero 48 80 50 77 / 0 0 10 80 Timberon 46 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 60 Winston 49 82 50 75 / 0 0 10 80 Hillsboro 58 88 60 82 / 0 0 10 70 Spaceport 54 90 57 84 / 0 0 0 80 Lake Roberts 48 85 52 78 / 0 0 20 80 Hurley 51 87 55 81 / 0 0 20 70 Cliff 50 90 55 83 / 0 0 40 70 Mule Creek 50 86 54 79 / 0 0 40 80 Faywood 53 86 57 80 / 0 0 10 70 Animas 56 89 60 85 / 0 0 20 40 Hachita 56 89 60 85 / 0 0 20 40 Antelope Wells 56 89 59 86 / 0 0 10 30 Cloverdale 55 83 58 81 / 0 0 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.