textproduct: El Paso

UPDATE

Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Hourly PoP grids were adjusted in the near/short-term to reflect current satellite/radar imagery and model guidance. PoPs were trimmed back in Hudspeth County, but still in the "chance" category.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Sunday will continue to be cool and breezy.

- Increasing moisture and clouds with chances for isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday.

- Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back above normal beginning Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Sat Apr 4 2026

An UL ridge has replaced the trough covering the western CONUS, but with a split flow pattern and us toward the subtropical jet at the base of the ridge. Water vapor imagery and GFS analysis show a weak trough over the Lower Colorado River Valley. This feature and easterly surface winds is pulling moisture into the Borderland. At the moment, most of the moisture is aloft via mid and high clouds, but surface dewpoints will gradually increase tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, this weak s/w trough will continue sliding east while weakening. This and some frontal overrunning will trigger some showers for your Easter. Best chances will be late morning into the afternoon. Even with the low level moistening, it will still be pretty dry, so rainfall amounts will be quite light with most locations that are lucky enough to get rain only seeing a few hundredths of an inch. The exception may be Hudspeth County where moisture will be deeper.

We keep the moisture for Monday, but ridging will take over. That will keep us dry for much of the day, and temperatures will recover a few degrees. Later Monday though and into the overnight hours another s/w trough will start cutting through the Desert SW. It will sharpen as it passes Southern NM, creating another window for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. The trough axis slides out of here early Tuesday afternoon though both the GFS and Euro have lingering QPF in the Gila. Effectively though our chances are over by or before sunset Tuesday.

Drier air pushes in the wake of Monday/ Tuesday's s/w trough as broad, low-amplitude ridging slides through the region. This will warm our temperatures back above normal starting Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the period.

As we get into Friday and into the weekend, beyond the end of the forecast period, the pattern becomes more chaotic as a large UL low takes shape off the West Coast and attempts to draw moisture ahead of it. For now, it's a close call as to how much we'll get dry slotted, so the NBM's low POPs for Friday and Saturday are reasonable.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered -SHRA develop around KELP this morning, mainly south of KLRU. VCSH may be extended past 15z for KELP and could include KLRU depending on radar trends and ground obs. Dry conditions are forecast outside of KELP today with 15kft CIGs. Some clearing later in the period. Breezy E-SE winds during the day, gusting to 20-25kts. Winds fall to AOB 10kts tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 532 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through midweek. Moisture levels increase early in the week with a low chance of rain showers through Tuesday. Best rain chances will be south and east today with mainly light intensity; breezy southeast winds for the lowlands. Lighter winds through Tuesday, shifting westerly. Rain chances progress from west to east Mon-Tue. Lightning risk will be low early this week, best chance on Tue as a disturbance pushes through.

Drier conditions beginning Wednesday with modestly breezy west winds through Thursday, resulting in elevated fire wx conditions. No fire wx products are anticipated later this week as winds should stay below critical thresholds and min RHs won't be super low. Rain/storm chances look to return late in the week, mainly out east as a dryline tries to poke in. Confidence is low in where the dryline sets up, if it develops. Temperatures stay below normal early in the week, then warming to above average Wed-Thu.

Min RHs range from 15-35% through Tue, then 10-25% Wed/Thu. Vent rates will be good to very good today, then poor to good Mon; very good to excellent Wed onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 70 53 77 / 10 0 40 30 Sierra Blanca 39 64 46 72 / 30 0 50 40 Las Cruces 41 67 48 74 / 10 0 40 30 Alamogordo 37 70 45 73 / 10 0 30 50 Cloudcroft 27 49 33 50 / 10 10 40 60 Truth or Consequences 44 67 50 74 / 10 10 40 50 Silver City 39 62 43 71 / 10 10 50 30 Deming 43 68 48 78 / 10 10 40 30 Lordsburg 44 67 45 78 / 0 0 20 10 West El Paso Metro 47 69 54 76 / 10 0 40 30 Dell City 38 69 45 73 / 10 0 30 40 Fort Hancock 44 71 51 80 / 20 0 50 40 Loma Linda 41 63 48 69 / 10 0 40 40 Fabens 44 71 52 79 / 10 0 40 30 Santa Teresa 42 69 50 76 / 10 0 50 30 White Sands HQ 45 68 53 75 / 10 0 40 40 Jornada Range 37 69 45 74 / 10 0 40 40 Hatch 39 71 48 77 / 10 10 50 40 Columbus 46 70 52 79 / 10 0 30 10 Orogrande 39 68 48 73 / 10 0 40 50 Mayhill 29 61 36 62 / 10 0 30 60 Mescalero 29 61 35 62 / 10 10 30 60 Timberon 30 56 36 58 / 10 10 40 60 Winston 30 61 38 68 / 10 10 40 50 Hillsboro 40 66 47 72 / 10 10 50 40 Spaceport 36 69 45 74 / 10 10 40 40 Lake Roberts 36 64 40 69 / 10 10 50 40 Hurley 38 63 42 72 / 10 10 40 30 Cliff 40 71 43 78 / 0 10 40 30 Mule Creek 40 67 43 76 / 10 10 30 20 Faywood 40 63 45 71 / 10 10 50 30 Animas 44 69 46 79 / 0 0 20 10 Hachita 42 68 47 78 / 10 0 30 10 Antelope Wells 43 70 47 80 / 0 0 20 10 Cloverdale 44 68 47 76 / 0 0 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.