textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Moisture pulled up from tropical remnants of Polo will bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to New Mexico and West Texas Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Storms will be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash flooding, especially over locations that have already received heavy rain in recent weeks.

- New rain amounts 1 to 2 inches widespread across much of southwest New Mexico, with localized areas receiving 3 to 4 inches. A Flood Watch is in effect through Wednesday morning.

- Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the tropical moisture is forced east of the area. Temperatures remaining on the cool side into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

Two weather features to focus on in the short term are the upper low currently centered over northern California and Hurricane Polo spinning off the Baja California coast. Tropical steering pattern is favorable for Polo to drift north on Monday, making likely landfall over Baja California Sur during the evening hours. At the same time, the mid-latitude Pacific low aloft will make a southeast dive down to the Colorado River Valley, forced by a strengthening 75-knot jet streak on its backside. A weakening Polo will latch onto this stronger mid-latitude flow, shifting it northeast into Sonora/Chihuahua and straight toward El Paso on Tuesday.

Monday will feature a rapid moisture increase locally, thanks to the approaching tropical remnants. Veering of mid-level winds to the south ahead of the Pacific low will pull in deep, tropically- sourced moisture into southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitable water values, measured at just 1.1" this evening (00Z KEPZ RAOB), will spike to 1.5-1.6" Monday evening. This may break seasonal moisture records for El Paso, and is easily 3 to 4 standard deviations higher than usual for the end of the monsoon season. This moisture-rich atmosphere, combined with PVA and increasing diffluent flow aloft, will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide starting as early as Monday afternoon.

Good confidence in rain for all local zones Monday night through Wednesday morning as the upper low pulls up tropical moisture like a fire hose into New Mexico and West Texas. 48-hour rainfall forecasts suggest widespread totals ranging from 1.00-2.00". NBM guidance backs this up. Stronger storms and training (or multiple rounds) of rain showers over the same areas will lead to localized 3-4". Soil saturation is very high right now, so rain will lead to rapid runoff and flash flooding quickly. A Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of flash flooding is in place almost area-wide for Tuesday. Of particular concern for me will be the Sacramento Mountains, which have already had an above-normal precipitation season and significant flooding over the past two weeks. A Flood Watch is in effect area-wide from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. WFO El Paso will be proactive with flood warnings in areas with recent heavy rains if needed Tuesday- Wednesday.

On top of the heavy rain risk, the passing tropical depression may still have some stronger winds associated with it. 00Z HRRR run tonight was of particular concern, and recent NAM runs have also picked up on the potential for gusty conditions Tuesday evening as Polo moves through. Increased forecasted winds for Tuesday afternoon/evening, especially for El Paso, Hudspeth, Otero counties where strong winds out of the south just ahead of the anticipated storm track could lead to gusts in the 30-40 mph range.

Both GFS and ECMWF global models show a track of the upper low progressing across central NM on Wednesday. Rain showers will slowly decrease in coverage Wednesday morning, with the remnants of Polo quickly dissipating. Subsident "dry-slotting" at the base of the low will lead to drier weather for our area by Wednesday afternoon.

Once all this action passes, it looks like a fairly "boring" weather pattern for the start of October. Strengthening upper high over the U.S. Southwest will usher in a much-needed break from rainfall. Continued east surface flow could keep temperatures below normal through the rest of the week. Lowland highs lingering in the upper 70s into next weekend seems like the best bet right now.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Skies FEW-SCT110, SCT-BKN250 tonight with surface winds AOB 05 knots. Increasing cloud coverage overnight, becoming SCT-BKN080, BKN-OVC150 by 12Z Monday morning. Scattered SHRA reaching SW NM by 18Z Monday afternoon, increasing in coverage and intensity into the evening hours. Included gusts to 20 knots at KTCS as flow increases out of the south tomorrow. Widespread rains and possible MVFR/IFR VIS at times Monday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through midweek. Mainly dry today with increasing mid-high clouds. A shower or storm may develop in the NM Bootheel during the afternoon. Light winds today, shifting west-southwest this afternoon over area mtns. Temperatures will be near normal today. Scattered to widespread showers and storms move in Monday afternoon associated with Polo, continuing through Tuesday night with a high risk of flash flooding area- wide. Flood threat will be most pronounced north of the I-10 corridor. Saturated soils from recent rainfall will elevate the flood risk. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are additional hazards. Temperatures fall to below normal for midweek.

Min RHs will be 25-40% today, rising to 60-90% on Tue. Vent rates range from poor to good through Mon, then mostly poor on Tue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 67 86 65 77 / 0 30 90 100 Sierra Blanca 63 84 62 78 / 0 30 90 70 Las Cruces 64 83 62 73 / 0 30 80 100 Alamogordo 63 85 61 74 / 0 20 90 100 Cloudcroft 49 65 48 55 / 0 20 90 100 Truth or Consequences 63 82 62 69 / 0 60 100 100 Silver City 61 76 57 65 / 0 90 100 100 Deming 64 85 61 73 / 0 60 90 100 Lordsburg 66 83 62 71 / 0 80 90 100 West El Paso Metro 68 87 65 77 / 0 30 90 100 Dell City 62 88 65 81 / 0 20 80 80 Fort Hancock 69 92 68 86 / 0 40 90 70 Loma Linda 63 81 61 72 / 0 40 90 90 Fabens 67 90 66 82 / 0 40 90 90 Santa Teresa 65 85 63 75 / 0 40 80 100 White Sands HQ 67 86 64 75 / 0 30 90 100 Jornada Range 64 84 62 72 / 0 30 80 100 Hatch 65 86 63 74 / 0 40 90 100 Columbus 66 85 64 75 / 0 50 80 90 Orogrande 61 84 62 73 / 0 20 90 100 Mayhill 54 77 54 67 / 0 10 90 100 Mescalero 53 76 53 65 / 0 10 90 100 Timberon 53 72 52 62 / 0 20 100 100 Winston 56 75 54 64 / 0 70 90 100 Hillsboro 65 81 60 71 / 0 70 100 100 Spaceport 62 83 60 70 / 0 50 100 100 Lake Roberts 56 75 54 64 / 0 80 100 100 Hurley 61 79 57 68 / 0 90 90 100 Cliff 63 83 61 71 / 10 80 100 100 Mule Creek 61 79 57 66 / 10 90 100 100 Faywood 63 79 60 67 / 0 80 100 100 Animas 66 84 63 73 / 10 70 90 100 Hachita 65 84 61 72 / 10 70 90 100 Antelope Wells 65 83 62 73 / 10 60 80 100 Cloverdale 62 78 59 67 / 10 60 80 100

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.