textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1142 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Scattered storms will move through northern and western areas through this evening with a few storms becoming severe closer to the Arizona border.

- Better areawide rain chances Thursday and Friday, with isolated strong storms and flooding.

- Temperatures back above normal, with Tuesday through Wednesday being the warmest stretch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

An active pattern setting up for much of the next week. A southwest to southerly flow pattern persists at least into Sunday. This afternoon and evening, we will see a series of disturbances moving through the region which will help trigger scattered thunderstorms, primarily west of the RGV, but a few could move into El Paso and parts of Otero county. There is some good shear out west with 35-45KTS in the 0-6km layer and CAPE values upwards of 1000J/kg. Could see a few strong to low end severe. It does look like it will be more low-topped storms, but with cooler Oct air in place, hail will be a threat as well as wind. This activity will move NE through the evening. Overnight lows will be warmer than last night with higher dew points in place.

Tue looks like a more down day as we will see some ridging taking place over the eastern zones and a strong upper low moves slowly south off the CA coast, but still enough moisture and instability around to get a few storms over area mountains. Temperatures will be warming up into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the lowlands. Similar conditions continue through the day Wed except as we get towards 00Z, there will be some convection developing south of the Bootheel and pushing north into western CWA. SPC has highlighted this area with a marginal severe threat. Shear will definitely be in place but instability looks marginal.

Activity starts really ramping up going into Thu and Fri as the upper low moves onshore, opens up and gets into western MT. The trough will extend down into the Baja Peninsula and keep a good moisture fetch from the south and a series of disturbances lining up. Could see some training through this timeframe and locally heavy rain. Currently both the GFS and EC Ensemble means support 1-2" over the Gila region with a third to 1" over the lowlands. Localized areas could see 2-3" by Sat morning.

Models are in good agreement through Sat morning, but then differ on how to handle the lingering upper trough. EC continues to be more progressive and pushing the upper trough east of the area by Sun morning. GFS has a different solution each run but does want to keep redeveloping a trough/upper low near the Four Corners region and precipitation going. The jet pattern seems to favor a EC solution that is more progressive, but lingering moisture could keep some isolated to scattered storms over the east going into Sun. Temperatures as we get into Fri-Sun will cool down with the trough passage.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN100-120 through much of the period with some partial clearing after 06Z. There will be scattered thunderstorms developing west of the Divide by 21Z and moving northeast into the evening. Best coverage will be in the Gila region but as far as impacted terminals, KTCS and KDMN have best storm chances starting around 00Z with wind gusts over 30KTS and even some hail. KLRU and KELP have chances as well but closer to 02-06Z. Widely scattered showers will continue through the night similar to last night. Winds generally NE to SE AOB 12KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

While temperatures will be warming up the next couple of days to about 10 degrees above normal, fairly high moisture for Oct will be in place and keep RH's above 30%. There will be scattered thunderstorms almost daily, especially in area mountains going into the weekend. Best rain chances come Thu-Fri when some locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the Gila region. Temperatures will be cooling down as we head into the later part of the week and rain chances increase. Vent rates generally Fair to good through Wed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 59 84 62 86 / 20 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 57 82 60 83 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 79 58 83 / 30 10 10 0 Alamogordo 54 80 57 83 / 40 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 60 46 62 / 40 20 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 78 57 79 / 60 10 10 10 Silver City 52 73 55 74 / 70 20 10 20 Deming 54 81 57 83 / 40 10 10 10 Lordsburg 56 79 59 81 / 40 10 10 20 West El Paso Metro 59 83 62 86 / 20 0 10 0 Dell City 55 84 58 85 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 88 60 90 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 78 56 80 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 57 87 60 89 / 20 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 81 59 85 / 20 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 59 82 62 85 / 30 10 0 0 Jornada Range 54 80 57 83 / 40 10 0 0 Hatch 55 82 58 84 / 40 10 10 10 Columbus 57 82 60 85 / 30 0 10 0 Orogrande 54 80 57 83 / 30 10 0 0 Mayhill 49 73 52 74 / 30 30 0 0 Mescalero 46 71 49 74 / 40 20 0 10 Timberon 44 68 47 70 / 30 10 0 0 Winston 47 70 50 71 / 60 30 10 30 Hillsboro 54 77 57 78 / 50 20 10 10 Spaceport 54 78 57 81 / 60 10 0 10 Lake Roberts 48 73 51 74 / 80 40 10 30 Hurley 50 76 53 77 / 60 10 10 20 Cliff 51 79 54 79 / 70 30 30 30 Mule Creek 50 76 53 76 / 60 30 30 30 Faywood 52 75 55 77 / 60 10 10 10 Animas 55 80 58 82 / 40 10 10 20 Hachita 54 80 57 82 / 40 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 55 82 58 83 / 30 10 10 20 Cloverdale 53 78 56 79 / 40 10 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.