textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- This afternoon and tonight will see another round of thunderstorms that will move through the region with the best chances across southwest New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley. Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning for those areas.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue on Friday and Saturday, but the best chances for rain will shift east of the Rio Grande. Additional rain chances are expected next week as another surge of moisture arrives.

- Typical mid-September temperatures into the weekend, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Our active, moist weather pattern continues as we remain sandwiched between a closed low over Northern CA and the subtropical ridge centered near Little Rock. SPC analysis shows about 1.2" of PW, so heavy rain remains a threat. A weak s/w is over the Northern Gulf of California, and that will be our main player this evening into the overnight hours as it lifts north through the region. Prior to then, convection will be a little delayed and limited to the mountains. By around 6PM, a complex of storms will start moving in from Mexico associated with the low over the Gulf of California. The main precip threat associated with this system will be across the Rio Grande Valley, which received a lot of rainfall last night. Thus, the current FFA looks good.

The aforementioned low will push into Northern NM by Friday afternoon while we remain under the influence of a trough. Another little s/w trough axis will swing through Friday evening, but this time the focus for storms will mainly be east of the Rio Grande. Another trough axis will swing through the Parent low over Yellowstone Saturday afternoon, but the focus will be near the eastern border of our CWA.

A s/w ridge will fill in behind the upper level trough/low with fair and warm weather for Sunday. Our CWA is expected to be precip free. Monday will be a repeat of Sunday, but by Tuesday, moist, subtropical southerly flow will reestablish itself over NM and Far West Texas. Tuesday and into the rest of next week looks quite active as systems ride up the moist, southerly flow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Our large scale weather pattern has changed little over the last 24 hours so we will see very similar weather today as we saw yesterday. Most of the short term models indicate another batch of thunderstorms moving north out of Mexico and will likely have impacts for KDMN and KLRU. Also KELP and KTCS could also see some impacts depending on storm motion. The biggest impact will be heavy rain and lower MVFR or even brief IFR ceilings. Most of the convection will be wrapping up by midnight, but some models are indicating that lower clouds and showers will linger well past midnight, mainly in the Rio Grande valley. We should see lower rain chances for Friday, especially east of the Rio Grande.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

There are no fire weather concerns for the next five days. We will remain within a moist southerly flow through tomorrow, but moisture will begin to decline some over the weekend. We start with min RH values in the mid 20s to mid 30s, slumping to the low to mid 20s area wide by Sunday and Monday. We will continue with shower and thunderstorm chances tonight, then along and east of the Rio Grande for Friday, and then the far east for Saturday. Sunday and Monday look to be precip free. By late Monday night though moisture will return with another wet pattern expected for the middle of next week.

Winds will be light, limiting vent rates, but with deep mixing, vent categories will still range fair to good for Friday, becoming good to very good for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 93 68 92 / 40 20 40 10 Sierra Blanca 64 91 65 90 / 10 10 40 60 Las Cruces 65 89 63 90 / 60 20 30 0 Alamogordo 66 90 65 89 / 30 30 50 20 Cloudcroft 49 67 50 68 / 30 50 50 40 Truth or Consequences 65 84 62 87 / 70 30 30 10 Silver City 60 80 59 83 / 70 30 10 10 Deming 64 89 62 91 / 70 20 20 0 Lordsburg 65 87 64 90 / 50 20 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 93 69 92 / 50 20 40 10 Dell City 67 94 67 92 / 10 20 40 40 Fort Hancock 71 99 72 97 / 10 20 50 50 Loma Linda 65 87 65 85 / 20 20 40 20 Fabens 69 96 68 94 / 30 20 40 20 Santa Teresa 68 91 65 90 / 60 20 30 10 White Sands HQ 70 91 69 91 / 60 20 50 10 Jornada Range 66 89 63 89 / 50 30 40 10 Hatch 66 90 63 92 / 70 30 30 10 Columbus 68 92 65 93 / 60 20 20 0 Orogrande 65 89 63 88 / 30 20 40 10 Mayhill 55 81 55 81 / 30 50 50 60 Mescalero 53 78 53 79 / 30 50 50 40 Timberon 53 77 53 77 / 20 40 50 40 Winston 55 76 53 78 / 70 50 30 20 Hillsboro 64 83 63 87 / 70 30 30 10 Spaceport 63 86 60 88 / 60 30 40 10 Lake Roberts 55 79 52 82 / 70 40 10 10 Hurley 60 82 58 86 / 70 20 20 10 Cliff 62 87 60 89 / 60 30 10 0 Mule Creek 60 84 59 86 / 40 20 0 0 Faywood 62 82 60 85 / 80 30 20 0 Animas 65 88 64 91 / 60 20 10 10 Hachita 64 87 62 90 / 40 20 10 0 Antelope Wells 64 88 64 91 / 50 20 10 10 Cloverdale 62 85 62 86 / 30 20 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.