textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting for the rest of the week, running 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Lowland highs 100 to 107 each afternoon, with only the slightest decrease heading into the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and well into the evening. Main focus will be over the Gila Region and into SW New Mexico, where highly localized flash flooding will be possible. Thunderstorm chances will diminish from Wednesday, and mainly focused over Southwest New Mexico.

- Thunderstorm chances look to improve this weekend as a more active northeast flow aloft sets up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Persistent upper high remains fixed over the Southern Rockies, and will sit there through at least the remainder of late July. This will drive the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the North American Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective temperature/terrain forcing producing meager instability. The monsoonal plume will be broad and diffuse, but generally favor the AZ/NM state line. Precipitable water values are just over an inch through much of southwest New Mexico, with drier air further to the east across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

We may see an uptick in storm chances on Tuesday, driven by a decaying MCS over Sonora flushing in additional moisture out of the southwest. NAM/GFS both show an outflow boundary with higher surface dewpoints across southwest New Mexico by sunrise tomorrow and afternoon precipitable water values 1.2-1.4". This will lead to more scattered (50-70% coverage) thunderstorms Tuesday evening. A few storms may be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Cloud-layer flow of 15-knots suggests flooding risk may be lower than the past few days, as storms will be able to more efficiently move to the WNW. Storms may last well into the nighttime hours due to outflow forcing.

The main headline for the desert lowlands, however, will be hot temperatures. Suffocating upper ridge aloft will promote very hot afternoon conditions, followed by little relief overnight. Highs will run 8-12 degrees above normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 102 to 106 degree range through at least next Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the lower Rio Grande Valley through Tuesday, and may need to be expanded in both time and area later this week.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to-day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall weather pattern will be warmer-than-normal temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly across southwest New Mexico and the southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of August, which may allow for slightly better storm coverage and some interesting north flow aloft.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Moist outflow from Arizona last night will increase the chances for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, especially in southwestern New Mexico. This evening, outflow from northern New Mexico may interact with outflow from SW New Mexico and bring nocturnal showers and thunderstorms closer to the Rio Grande. Still difficult to go much further than PROB30s for convection at area terminals. Outflow from the north tonight may get a little gusty, with 25 to 35 knots possible at TCS after 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 518 AM MDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Low fire weather concerns continue with thunderstorm chances returning this afternoon and evening, though mostly focused west of the Rio Grande. High temperatures will stay 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year, with generally light winds. Thunder- storm chances will wane mid-week, but will increase again towards the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 104 78 104 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 73 102 73 102 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 75 102 73 103 / 10 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 56 78 55 78 / 10 10 10 20 Truth or Consequences 75 101 75 102 / 40 0 10 0 Silver City 66 94 67 95 / 30 20 10 20 Deming 73 103 73 103 / 20 0 10 0 Lordsburg 72 100 73 101 / 30 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 80 103 79 104 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 73 102 71 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 106 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 96 70 97 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 77 105 77 105 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 76 102 76 102 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 80 103 79 103 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 76 102 75 102 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 75 105 75 105 / 20 0 10 0 Columbus 77 104 77 104 / 20 0 10 0 Orogrande 74 101 73 101 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 62 89 60 90 / 10 10 0 10 Mescalero 61 90 59 90 / 10 10 10 20 Timberon 59 88 58 88 / 10 10 0 10 Winston 64 92 64 93 / 30 30 10 30 Hillsboro 72 99 72 100 / 30 10 10 10 Spaceport 73 101 72 101 / 30 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 60 94 61 95 / 40 40 20 40 Hurley 68 98 68 98 / 30 20 10 10 Cliff 68 100 69 101 / 30 20 20 20 Mule Creek 65 96 67 97 / 30 20 20 20 Faywood 69 97 70 98 / 30 10 10 10 Animas 72 100 73 102 / 50 10 20 0 Hachita 71 100 72 101 / 30 10 20 0 Antelope Wells 70 100 71 101 / 40 20 20 0 Cloverdale 66 93 67 96 / 50 20 30 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.