textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 830 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Temperatures rebound to above normal through Thursday under fair skies.

- High chance for precipitation Friday and Saturday with the arrival of a Pacific low. Mountain snow and lowland wintry mix are expected through Saturday night as colder air moves in.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains with accumulations near one foot.

- Chilly and dry early next week behind the storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

Tranquil weather continues through Thursday as upper ridging translates eastward. Temps rise back slightly above normal with highs into the 60s for the lowlands on Thu under fair skies with light winds.

A significant pattern shift begins on Friday as an upper low approaches from the Pacific. Abundant subtropical moisture is scooped up ahead of it starting Thu night, overspreading the Southern High Plains on Fri. PW anomalies will be 2-4 sigma above late-January climo according to global ensembles, reaching near 0.75" during the day. Precip chances arrive by Fri AM as moist, SW flow aloft takes over. Deep moisture and good dynamics with the jet streak overhead and PVA downstream of the low will result in high PoPs (80-90%) Fri-Sat, peaking Fri night. QPF remains high among the models for this event due to the favorable set-up with generally around 1" total liquid expected, higher for area mtns. There is high confidence in widespread rain and mtn snow showers for Friday into Sat.

Meanwhile, the historically strong, arctic airmass (1050mb-ish high) in the Northern Plains will flex its muscles and try to spill into our area on Sat. Global models continue to struggle regarding the western extent of the cold air. The 12z NAM, which tends to perform well with these frontal intrusions, has the cold air struggling to reach the RGV on Sat, keeping wintry precip in Hudspeth and the Otero Mesa later in the day. A battle between WAA around 700mb and cold near-sfc air will be key in determining what precip type falls for Hudspeth and to a lesser extent, the RGV including El Paso. Freezing rain is more likely to mix in compared to sleet for far eastern areas as the cold air near the surface should be shallow and WAA tends to overperform in these over- running set-ups. FZRA has been added to the wx grids with light ice accumulations possible (0.10" or less) along I-10 and 62/180 in Hudspeth Sat PM with icy travel conditions expected. For the rest of the lowlands, mostly rain is expected for Sat before the front makes a push westward by Sun.

As the event winds down, snow levels crash to the desert floor, allowing for a rain/snow mix for the lowlands Sun AM. Precip chances end during the day on Sun as the storm system pushes east out of the area. Snow accumulations will be light outside of area mtns, where confidence is increasing in heavy amounts. High chance (60-80% of 6" or more) of warning criteria for the Sacs as they won't have any issue seeing snow stick, although SLRs will be low (8:1 or less) for the first half of the event. An upgrade to a WS.W can be expected in the next 24 hours for the Sacs with low confidence in warning criteria being reached anywhere else. The Otero Mesa and Hudspeth are next in line to see hazardous wintry wx this weekend, taking into account possible freezing rain and sleet. The lowlands west of the US-54 corridor have a low chance of seeing 1" or more of snow with lowering chances as you head towards AZ. The Blacks are expected to see less snowfall mainly due to higher snow levels for much of the event.

The storm system pushes eastward across northern Mexico on Sunday, bringing in dry air behind it early next week. There is increasing confidence in cold air early in the week once the arctic front finally pushes through this weekend. Lows in the teens are forecast with wind chills into the single digits for the lowlands Sun-Tue AMs. Cold Wx products may be needed. Not much relief during the day with highs in the 30s and 40s before we start to warm up into midweek as upper ridging returns and the airmass modifies. Light winds and fair skies are forecast after Sun.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 830 PM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions with light and variable winds will prevail through tonight. Winds will trend towards light WSW Thursday afternoon, with some mid/high clouds (SCT-BKN180) beginning to work in from the south, in addition to the on-going BKN-OVC250.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 945 AM MST Wed Jan 21 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Winds remain light through Thu, favoring a westerly direction tomorrow. Temps warm through Thu to slightly above normal under fair skies. Overnight RH recoveries will be fair tonight. A storm system brings plenty of moisture and precip chances Fri-Sat as cold air spills in on Sat/Sun. Snow will be mostly confined to the mtns with heavy snow amounts forecast for the Sacs (near one foot). Mainly rain showers for the lowlands through Sat, then a wintry mix Sat night/Sun as the event wraps up. Some breezy winds accompany the system late in the week, gusting to 25 mph. Cold early next week with higher confidence.

Min RHs range from 10-25% through Thu, then 40-70% through weekend. Vent rates will be poor today, then poor to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 38 67 48 60 / 0 0 20 80 Sierra Blanca 36 66 45 59 / 0 0 20 80 Las Cruces 34 63 42 55 / 0 0 20 80 Alamogordo 32 63 40 56 / 0 0 20 80 Cloudcroft 29 44 31 38 / 0 0 30 80 Truth or Consequences 35 62 40 55 / 0 0 20 70 Silver City 37 59 40 50 / 0 10 20 80 Deming 35 66 43 59 / 0 10 30 90 Lordsburg 35 64 42 56 / 0 0 20 80 West El Paso Metro 41 66 50 58 / 0 0 20 80 Dell City 27 66 40 56 / 0 0 10 70 Fort Hancock 36 71 46 64 / 0 0 20 80 Loma Linda 38 60 46 53 / 0 0 20 80 Fabens 35 68 47 61 / 0 0 20 80 Santa Teresa 35 64 47 56 / 0 0 30 80 White Sands HQ 39 64 48 56 / 0 0 30 80 Jornada Range 31 63 42 55 / 0 0 30 80 Hatch 31 66 41 58 / 0 0 20 80 Columbus 36 67 48 59 / 0 10 40 90 Orogrande 33 63 43 55 / 0 0 30 80 Mayhill 32 59 33 50 / 0 0 30 70 Mescalero 29 55 32 49 / 0 0 20 80 Timberon 30 54 33 46 / 0 0 30 80 Winston 27 59 32 50 / 0 0 10 70 Hillsboro 37 63 41 56 / 0 0 20 80 Spaceport 30 62 37 55 / 0 0 20 70 Lake Roberts 33 59 35 50 / 0 10 20 80 Hurley 33 62 38 54 / 0 10 20 80 Cliff 32 64 37 56 / 0 0 20 80 Mule Creek 34 61 37 53 / 0 0 10 70 Faywood 37 61 42 52 / 0 10 30 80 Animas 35 67 46 59 / 0 10 40 80 Hachita 34 67 45 57 / 0 10 30 80 Antelope Wells 36 69 45 59 / 0 20 40 90 Cloverdale 43 61 46 51 / 0 20 50 90

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.