textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the week.

- Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend with lowland highs around 100 degrees. Trending wetter for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Not much change in the forecast for the rest of the week as the upper high strengthens over the Mid Atlantic then expands westward across the Southern US. With troughing over the Northwest, a subtropical moisture plume remains over eastern NM and west TX. Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances into the weekend with best chances over Hudspeth County, then focusing over the Sacs Fri/Sat. Gusty outflows to 40 mph and blowing dust from the east will remain the primary hazards for the El Paso area and upper RGV, but with low impacts.

Areas to the north and west stay dry and will see decreasing SW winds through Thu. Very dry air pushes into western NM for Wed/Thu as weak shortwaves move through the Four Corners. The moisture plume fizzles out late in the week as the upper high begins to re- establish near the Four Corners. Lingering moisture will allow for low storm chances in the Sacs this weekend, but otherwise dry and hotter conditions are expected for the 4th.

A more active monsoon pattern looks to set up around the high for the first half of next week. Moist, SE flow reaches further west through S NM with storm chances favoring area mountains. Scattered mtn and isolated lowland storms is the most likely scenario into the middle of next week. Inverted troughs, like the 18z GFS shows, may increase the flash flood threat later in the period, but confidence is low in the placement of the monsoon high. Temperatures will be near normal into next week, warmer for the holiday weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Winds AOB 10kts through the AM from S-SW with gusts returning around 18z. Strongest gusts for KTCS to 25kts, lighter for KELP and KLRU. A few showers may approach KELP this morning from the S, otherwise isolated TS develop in the afternoon to the east. Gusty outflows to 30kts are possible late in the period along with some BLDU and VIS to 5 SM for KELP. All terminals should stay dry.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1005 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Repeating from yesterday, the trough out west and the ridge out east will create breezy southwest winds for New Mexico and the Gila National Forest while Hudspeth County will see some isolated afternoon thunderstorms thanks to a plume of moisture from Chihuahua. Overnight RH recoveries will be in the upper teens for western New Mexico tonight and tomorrow.

Temperatures will be in the mid-90s today before slowly rising back to 100 degrees around the Fourth of July due to a new high pressure system cementing itself around the Four Corners region, and minimum RH values over Southwestern New Mexico will decrease to the upper single-digits once again, especially west of the Continental Divide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 96 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 65 88 64 90 / 40 30 20 30 Las Cruces 67 95 66 96 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 69 95 68 96 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 51 72 51 73 / 10 20 10 40 Truth or Consequences 67 95 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 66 98 64 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 95 73 96 / 10 10 0 0 Dell City 67 93 67 94 / 50 30 20 30 Fort Hancock 71 95 71 97 / 40 30 20 20 Loma Linda 66 88 66 89 / 20 20 10 20 Fabens 71 97 71 98 / 20 20 10 10 Santa Teresa 70 94 70 95 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 96 74 97 / 0 10 0 10 Jornada Range 68 95 67 96 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 67 98 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 98 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 93 67 94 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 56 82 55 83 / 20 30 10 60 Mescalero 55 83 54 84 / 10 20 10 30 Timberon 52 80 52 81 / 20 20 10 30 Winston 57 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 64 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 64 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 54 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 61 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 94 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 63 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 95 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.