textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain on today. Thunderstorm chances will diminish this weekend as upper level high pressure builds closer to the area.

- Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records.

- Slight chances of thunderstorms return Thursday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The saying goes, big bubble no trouble. But for us the next week will be dominated by a big bubble of high pressure aloft which will give the lowlands of our area high temperatures at or above 100F. The first part of the week looks the hottest with high temperatures running 10 to 12 degrees above average. We will be near record high temperatures Monday through Wednesday. The reason for this late summer heat is a big area of upper level high pressure that will wander around New Mexico and Arizona this week into the start of next week. The upper level ridge will really limit convection each afternoon, with only the mountains having a slight chance for thunderstorms each day through this weekend. The upper level ridge will be centered over southern New Mexico for Monday through Wednesday and that is when we will see our hottest temperatures. We may need a heat advisory for some of the lowlands of Texas some of those days.

For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift ever so slightly to the west into eastern Arizona, which will allow a degree or two to come off of our afternoon high temperatures and may give the mountains a little better chance for rain. It remains to be seen how for into the lowlands thunderstorms may be able to creep for the end of the week. For next weekend, we will see more of the same as the upper level ridge drifts back toward southern New Mexico. Rain chances will be limited in area mountains next weekend and high temperatures will again creep to near record levels. We will likely start September out on a hot note, as the upper level ridge shows no signs of moving off or breaking down. So the triple digit heat will continue in the lowlands which is a little unusual for the month of September. For the climate record of El Paso, a little less than 2% of our 100 degree days have ever occurred in September.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 957 PM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. There will be a slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms in area mountains, which will have no impact on our TAF sites. The one exception might be some thunderstorm outflow winds which can travel dozens and dozens of miles from their parent thunderstorm. Otherwise our winds will be light tonight, then like today, we will have some low end gusty winds for a few hours Sunday afternoon. Those low end gusty winds will drop off a little before sunset. Our ceilings tonight and Sunday will be unlimited.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1026 AM MDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Fire weather concerns should remain low through the coming week. Temperatures will remain quite warm, near record levels for much of this time. This combined with low humidities will allow fuels to dry out some, but no significant winds are expected through the forecast period. A few mountain thunderstorms are possible this afternoon but then the chances shrink Sunday through Wednesday. Upper high drifting off to the west Thursday and beyond will bring slight chances of thunderstorms back to the mountain zones.

Min RH: Lowlands 10-15% through Wednesday, increasing to 12-18% Thursday and Friday. Gila/Black Range Mountains...15-25% through Friday. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains...20-35% through Friday. Vent rates good-very good through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 101 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 100 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 99 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 71 98 71 100 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 65 93 64 95 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 71 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 99 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 71 102 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 101 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 99 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 58 89 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 61 90 62 92 / 10 0 0 10 Hillsboro 70 98 69 99 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 91 58 92 / 10 0 0 10 Hurley 67 96 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 67 100 68 101 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 65 97 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 69 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 71 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 99 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 99 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.