textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1133 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

- Breezy conditions today with blowing dust and critical fire danger over the lowlands

- Light lowland rain and modest mountain snow chances Friday and Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A large long-wave trough covers the western 2/3rd of the CONUS this afternoon. Embedded within this trough is yesterday's wind and dust maker on its way to the Great Lakes area and a secondary speed max over us. This secondary speed max is making for a breezy to low-end windy afternoon with satellite showing dust streams across Mexico heading into the US. There will be some dust concerns this afternoon, but not to the scale or magnitude, except perhaps locally, that was seen yesterday. The speed max departs this evening while surface high pressure settles in behind a Pacific front. This pattern will foster a cool to chilly and tranquil night with fairly light winds. Jet energy remains overhead though with the speed max offset to our south for Thursday. It will be a seasonably cool but low- impact day.

Come Friday the large trough will form a closed low somewhere over AZ. Models finally seem to be converging on a path for this low though some details remain unclear. The low will make a very slow trek to the east, and by afternoon both models indicate a warm conveyor belt forming across the far eastern part of the CWA with a dry slot across the Rio Grande Valley and the western part of the CWA beneath the cold pool. The remainder of the CWA comes beneath the cold pool by Saturday morning and then on the backside by the afternoon. Both the GFS and Euro indicate cooler to colder air sliding into NM with high pressure centered near Roswell, which will help provide some added lift. Thus, scattered showers look to be the rule for Saturday with the best shot for rain toward the afternoon as wrap around moisture moves into Southern NM and Far West TX. This will be the Sacramento Mountains best opportunity for accumulating snow where better moisture, dynamics, and upslope components overlap. 25th percentile shows 1" and the 75th percentile shows 4", so 1-4 inches seems to be a reasonable forecast, which is circling advisory criteria.

The low becomes a trough by Sunday and loses a lot of its dynamics while the jet moves away and weakens. Sunday will start a stretch of quiet weather. We will remain well below normal on Sunday, but it will begin a warming trend. A long wave ridge will begin to take its place next week. We'll start off in northwest flow on Tuesday but will be squarely within the ridge by next Thursday. Temperatures will be back to normal by Tuesday and are looking to be much above normal next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Low end gusty winds continue here and there across the region, but those should drop off in the next few hours. We will see more low end gusty winds on Thursday afternoon, but nothing like we have seen the last couple of days, so I'm not expecting any BLDU problems. For the rest of tonight and into much of Thursday, we will see off and on high and mid ceilings of SCT-BKN120-250, mainly east of the Rio Grande. Ceilings west of the river will stay generally unlimited.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

We will continue to see critical fire concerns this afternoon across the lowlands, but after today no critical fire days are forecast. We will see two days of elevated concerns, mainly for the lowlands tomorrow and Friday as min RH values fall into the lower/middle teens. Winds will not be as strong as seen the last couple of days, topping out around 15 MPH in the afternoon. By Saturday, cooler temperatures and increased humidity along with the prospect for scattered showers will mitigate fire concerns. Very dry conditions will return Monday but winds will be fairly light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 45 66 46 66 / 10 10 50 40 Sierra Blanca 44 64 43 58 / 10 10 50 60 Las Cruces 34 63 38 62 / 0 0 30 20 Alamogordo 36 63 40 62 / 10 0 40 40 Cloudcroft 23 40 26 40 / 10 0 50 50 Truth or Consequences 34 62 36 62 / 0 0 10 20 Silver City 27 53 30 53 / 0 10 10 30 Deming 33 65 33 63 / 0 0 20 20 Lordsburg 30 60 30 59 / 0 10 0 20 West El Paso Metro 44 65 48 63 / 10 10 50 40 Dell City 44 66 43 60 / 10 0 50 50 Fort Hancock 46 70 45 65 / 10 10 50 60 Loma Linda 40 58 42 56 / 10 0 50 50 Fabens 43 67 46 64 / 10 10 50 50 Santa Teresa 39 64 43 62 / 0 10 40 30 White Sands HQ 42 64 46 63 / 0 0 40 30 Jornada Range 34 63 38 62 / 0 0 30 20 Hatch 34 65 34 65 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 38 67 38 63 / 0 0 20 20 Orogrande 39 62 43 61 / 10 0 40 40 Mayhill 30 54 31 52 / 10 0 50 50 Mescalero 27 51 29 51 / 10 0 40 50 Timberon 25 50 27 49 / 10 0 50 50 Winston 20 53 22 53 / 0 0 10 40 Hillsboro 30 60 31 60 / 0 0 10 30 Spaceport 30 62 32 62 / 0 0 20 20 Lake Roberts 25 53 27 53 / 0 10 10 40 Hurley 26 57 27 57 / 0 0 10 20 Cliff 26 60 28 61 / 0 10 0 30 Mule Creek 27 55 30 55 / 0 10 0 40 Faywood 30 57 32 56 / 0 0 10 20 Animas 31 63 31 61 / 0 0 0 20 Hachita 30 63 31 60 / 0 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 32 63 32 60 / 0 0 10 30 Cloverdale 32 57 32 53 / 0 0 0 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.