textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 420 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Increasing chances for light to moderate rain showers Friday afternoon and Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures for the weekend, returning to near normal by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 845 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Cool temperatures will persist through the night as a surface high settles over the Texas Panhandle, keeping prevailing winds blowing from the east. Heading into Friday, the GFS and ECMWF continue to trend towards the upper-level trough moving through the Rockies transitioning into a closed low over Arizona, allowing more moisture to be pulled up from northern Mexico. PWAT levels are expected to be around 0.6" for Friday, which is not sufficient for soaking rains given limited instability, though total rainfall amounts are expected to be light to moderate; areas east of the Rio Grande favored to see rainfall totals near half an inch into Saturday, especially Hudspeth County.

The progression of rain showers will start from southwestern New Mexico Friday afternoon before moving east along the US-Mexico border Friday evening. Rain will linger over east of El Paso into Saturday (about a 70-90% chance). Widespread cloud cover and a weak backdoor cold front sliding in from the east Friday evening will keep lowland high temperatures stuck in the upper 50s for Saturday (or about 10-15 degrees below average). Portions of the Sacramento Mountains could see a wintry mix or snow on Saturday as temperatures hang around the low to mid 30s, though accumulation is unlikely.

Rain chances dwindle on Sunday as the low moves east, though Hudspeth County will see some lingering showers. Temperatures begin their gradual warmup on Sunday as drier air moves in. Temperatures will return to normal on Wednesday. Looking ahead, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that conditions will be dry through midweek, with both runs showing a pronounced upper- level ridge over our area on Thursday, though we will continue to monitor for any changes.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through at least 0z Saturday with BKN-OVC 080-100. After 0z, approaching SHRA may lower CIGs or VIS to MVFR category. SHRA will move in from the southwest later this evening (after 0z) though timing and coverage is a little uncertain to include mention in this TAF cycle. DMN has the highest likelihood of seeing RA after 0z. Intensity is expected to be light to moderate. Thunder cannot be ruled out, but chances are low. Otherwise, expect light winds AOB 10 knots, generally from the E or NE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected. An upper level low will bring an increase in moisture and a decrease in afternoon highs. Min RH values for this afternoon will be in the 30s for the lowlands, increasing to the upper 40s to lower 70s for Saturday with on and off rain showers. A little snow is also possible in the Sacramento Mountains. Winds will be light for most locations becoming a little breezy for west slope locations early Saturday morning. With the cool temperatures and light winds, venting will range poor to fair for most locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 50 57 48 63 / 70 100 20 10 Sierra Blanca 47 53 46 57 / 80 100 40 40 Las Cruces 45 57 42 61 / 80 70 20 20 Alamogordo 46 60 43 63 / 70 30 10 20 Cloudcroft 32 37 31 42 / 80 50 20 20 Truth or Consequences 47 61 42 65 / 50 10 0 10 Silver City 42 57 38 60 / 70 30 0 0 Deming 44 58 40 61 / 60 50 10 10 Lordsburg 45 59 42 62 / 70 40 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 57 50 62 / 80 100 20 20 Dell City 48 58 48 62 / 80 90 10 20 Fort Hancock 51 62 52 65 / 80 100 30 30 Loma Linda 44 50 44 55 / 80 100 10 20 Fabens 50 59 50 64 / 70 100 20 20 Santa Teresa 48 56 47 61 / 80 100 20 10 White Sands HQ 50 58 48 62 / 80 80 20 20 Jornada Range 45 59 43 63 / 70 60 10 20 Hatch 48 62 45 66 / 70 50 0 10 Columbus 48 57 47 62 / 60 80 20 20 Orogrande 47 57 45 62 / 70 60 10 20 Mayhill 36 47 35 53 / 80 60 20 20 Mescalero 35 50 34 56 / 80 40 10 10 Timberon 35 46 33 52 / 80 70 10 20 Winston 37 54 34 58 / 60 10 0 0 Hillsboro 45 59 42 63 / 60 40 10 10 Spaceport 46 61 41 65 / 60 20 0 20 Lake Roberts 38 57 34 62 / 60 20 0 0 Hurley 41 57 36 61 / 80 50 0 0 Cliff 44 65 38 67 / 50 20 0 0 Mule Creek 40 61 37 63 / 40 10 0 0 Faywood 44 56 41 59 / 70 60 0 0 Animas 46 58 44 61 / 70 40 0 0 Hachita 44 56 43 60 / 70 70 10 10 Antelope Wells 45 55 45 59 / 80 80 30 10 Cloverdale 42 53 44 56 / 80 50 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.