textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Near critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico this weekend. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with dry air could lead to wildfires. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms next week, limited mostly east of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will be typical of early July, with lowland highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Big picture weather feature to note today will be the 70-knot 500 mb jet streak across the Great Basin and Central Rockies. Very dry air at the base of this system cause a drying effect across Southwest New Mexico, pushing whatever meager moisture we had the past few days southeastward. Breezy southwest winds 15 to 25 mph will lead to critical fire danger across the Gila National Forest and areas west of the Rio Grande. Good chance the NM mountains stay dry this afternoon, but precipitable water values around 1.0" along the International Border may still pop off some very isolated (5-10% coverage) showers later today. Temperatures will again cool a degree or two from yesterday as last week's upper high shifts east. El Paso's forecast high is 101 today, close to normal for late June.

Sunday's rain chances will be limited almost exclusively to Hudspeth County and areas east of El Paso. Drier air across Southwest New Mexico will continue Near Critical fire weather conditions.

Stagnant weather pattern next week with a trough over the Western U.S. and strong high pressure over the Ohio/Mississippi River valleys. The Southern Rockies will generally rest in between these two large-scale features, with a pull of subtropical moisture fixed over west Texas and the eastern New Mexico plains. Storm chances will be limited mostly east of the Rio Grande through the week, with isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms each afternoon for Otero/Hudspeth Counties. Decent chance El Paso and Las Cruces stay dry through the Independence Day holiday, along with fairly mild early July temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s. Currently looks like good weather for the holiday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VMC expected through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Surface winds 240-260 at 14 to 18 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots across SW NM this evening. Skies FEW-SCT120 with isolated TCU along the International Border this evening. No direct impacts to terminals expected. TS outflow moving north out of Chihuahua overnight may continue gusty conditions at KELP through 08Z. Breezy southwest winds again on Sunday with evening TS to the SE of KELP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Near Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico this weekend as a jet streak crosses the Central Rockies. Drier air will bring an end to rain chances today and Sunday, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 12 to 18% causing a few hours of Red Flag criteria for Gila National Forest and portions of Grant/Sierra/Catron Counties. Fuel moisture is currently at climatological peak dryness and ongoing drought across western New Mexico has ERCs at the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be possible next few days.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest New Mexico through most of next week, with little to no rain chances. Winds decrease slightly Monday/Tuesday (southwest 10 to 20 mph), below critical thresholds, but dry air will remain in place. More favorable moisture will exist further east across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, including Lincoln National Forest where isolated showers and thunderstorms can be expected most days next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 100 75 98 / 0 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 69 94 67 92 / 20 20 30 10 Las Cruces 69 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 75 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 70 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 100 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 0 Dell City 71 99 70 97 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Hancock 74 100 73 99 / 20 20 20 10 Loma Linda 70 92 68 90 / 0 10 10 0 Fabens 74 100 72 99 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 97 70 96 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 101 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 74 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 87 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 86 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 84 54 82 / 0 0 10 0 Winston 59 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 95 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 65 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 63 96 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 62 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 66 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 96 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 90 63 88 / 10 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Sunday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.