textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

- A Pacific cold front will arrive Friday evening, bringing scattered rain showers overnight into Saturday. A few bands of heavier rain will be possible, especially across West Texas.

- Breezy and cooler on Saturday, with lowland highs in the lower 60s. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Perfect fall weather today with mainly clear skies and near- normal temps underneath an amplified upper ridge. The ridge is nudged east by an advancing shortwave that comes across the region Friday night. Increasing moisture is expected for Friday with mid-high clouds overspreading the region.

PWs climb to about 200% of normal Fri evening with diffluent flow overhead, meaning scattered to widespread showers. Far west TX is most favored to see rain Fri evening with a wave of showers modeled to move from SW to NE. Rain amounts of about 0.5" are forecast E of the US 54 corridor with up to 1" in isolated spots. Periods of moderate rain rates are likely for eastern areas. A few embedded t-storms are possible, but instability will be meager (CAPE of <500 J/kg). Lower rain amounts are expected to the north and west.

That shortwave exits to the east on Sat but with a negatively tilted trough on its heels. Precip chances will be focused over northern NM, clipping area mtns with a low chance of rain/snow mix through Sat. Snow accum will be minimal as snow levels struggle to get below 9kft. A decent pressure gradient develops on the underbelly of the northern shortwave on Sat behind the Pacific front, resulting in breezy W winds. Gusts to 30-35 mph are expected Sat afternoon with cooler temps.

A shortwave ridge moves over the region early next week, keeping us dry with lighter winds. The next Pacific storm to watch passes by the Four Corners Tue/Wed, producing some chance of rain for us depending on its track. The more northerly track shown by the 12z GFS keeps us mostly dry with some breezy SW winds. Otherwise, typical fall weather is forecast into next week with temps running a few degrees below normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 430 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VMC tonight with clear skies and light, variable winds. No visibility concerns overnight. High cirrus moving in after 10Z Friday morning, bringing skies to SCT-BKN250. Friday afternoon will feature SCT-BKN060 developing with scattered SHRA across all of S NM and W TX after 00Z. Periods of MVFR CIG/VIS are expected Friday night at KELP/KLRU due to rain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

No fire weather concerns through the period. Better moisture for Fri ahead of a disturbance with rain showers developing in the afternoon and seasonal temps. More widespread showers through the evening with a few thunderstorms possible. Rain is favored in SE areas. Winds pick up a bit from the S during the day, increasing further for Sat from W as a second storm system passes to the north. W winds 15-25 mph expected Sat afternoon. Low chance of rain/snow mix in area mtns on Sat. Cooler for Sat into next week as winds become lighter.

Min RHs range from 35-60% Fri, then 40-80% Sat. Vent rates will be mostly good to very good Sat, otherwise poor to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 70 50 66 / 0 40 80 0 Sierra Blanca 46 68 47 63 / 0 50 90 0 Las Cruces 45 66 46 63 / 0 40 60 0 Alamogordo 45 69 47 63 / 0 40 70 30 Cloudcroft 33 49 34 39 / 0 40 80 40 Truth or Consequences 43 63 45 63 / 0 30 30 0 Silver City 43 61 41 54 / 0 40 50 20 Deming 44 66 45 63 / 0 30 40 0 Lordsburg 47 67 43 62 / 0 20 30 0 West El Paso Metro 51 70 52 65 / 0 40 70 0 Dell City 44 70 50 66 / 0 40 90 10 Fort Hancock 50 77 51 71 / 0 60 80 0 Loma Linda 46 65 46 59 / 0 50 90 0 Fabens 48 74 50 68 / 0 50 80 0 Santa Teresa 46 68 48 64 / 0 50 70 0 White Sands HQ 50 68 50 65 / 0 40 70 0 Jornada Range 42 67 45 64 / 0 40 60 0 Hatch 44 69 46 67 / 0 40 50 0 Columbus 47 69 48 67 / 0 30 40 0 Orogrande 44 69 47 63 / 0 50 80 0 Mayhill 35 62 39 52 / 0 50 80 20 Mescalero 35 61 38 51 / 0 40 80 50 Timberon 35 58 36 51 / 0 60 90 40 Winston 35 58 37 55 / 0 30 40 0 Hillsboro 45 64 43 62 / 0 30 50 0 Spaceport 42 65 45 64 / 0 40 50 0 Lake Roberts 37 61 38 53 / 0 40 50 30 Hurley 41 63 40 58 / 0 30 40 10 Cliff 43 68 44 61 / 0 40 60 30 Mule Creek 42 64 41 56 / 0 30 40 40 Faywood 45 62 43 57 / 0 30 50 10 Animas 45 68 45 64 / 0 10 30 0 Hachita 44 67 44 63 / 0 30 30 0 Antelope Wells 45 68 45 63 / 0 10 40 0 Cloverdale 46 61 45 57 / 0 20 70 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.