textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Saturday with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-104. Temperatures dip below triple digits Sunday through midweek due to excess moisture and storms.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday into early Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An elongated UL high extends from off the Coast of Baja/SoCal to NM with low-amplitude, zonal flow across the rest of the CONUS. A subtropical/monsoonal plume of moisture is on the east side of the high,extending up through Northern Mex into the Southern half of NM and Far West Texas. There are also a few small swirls noted on WV. Dewpoints across the CWA generally range 45-55, so there is enough moisture for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms will start off in the mountains before N to NE'LY flow carries them south and southwest into the lowlands. Given the degree of moisture and warmth from high pressure aloft, coverage will be scattered in the mountains and isolated to possibly scattered in the lowlands with the greatest coverage west of the Rio Grande Valley. Fifty to 60 degree T-Td spreads suggest gusty outflows will be the main concern with areas of blowing dust. SPC has areas near the AZ border with a Marginal risk for severe storms. Indeed, the HRRR shows gusts in excess of 50 knots. Given the signal for strong outflow winds and the dust issues we've had across Luna and Hidalgo Counties, a dust advisory is in effect from 3PM to 8PM this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm coverage will gradually diminish after dark with loss of daytime heating.

We essentially repeat today's pattern for Saturday in terms of sensible weather expectations. The UL high will be in transition, moving toward the Central and Northern Plains, reaching WY/SD/ND by Sunday. The northern placement of the high will open Southern NM and Far W TX to a healthy moisture tap from the Gulf of Mexico/America, and that will remain the case for much of next week. The wild card will be what and when inverted troughs push into the area as these will bring an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. Mean NBM PW values start off close to an inch today, peaking to around 1.3" by Monday and Tuesday with a slight reduction for the latter part of next week. Thus, heavy rain and flash flooding would be the main concern with any storms next week. With the increased moisture and cloud coverage, afternoon highs will decrease, dropping below normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT250 BCMG SCT100-150/250. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon with greatest coverage/probability west of the Rio Grande. A PROB30 has been included on DMN, but storms may impact other sites as well. Additionally, strong gusty winds are expected with storms, especially for DMN. Gusts may exceed 30 knots, even as high as 50 knots at DMN. BLDU may accompany these outflows. TSRA/SHRA should gradually dissipate after dark. Outside of storms, winds will top out around 10 knots with gusts to 20 knots mainly from the east and southeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

We continue in a hot and relatively dry pattern for today and Saturday, but there will be enough moisture for scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms. Gusty winds along with a low risk for dry lightning would be the main concerns. Min RH values will range from the min to upper teens in the lowlands. Winds, apart from thunderstorms, will be light, topping out near 10 MPH. As we go into Sunday and into next week, moisture will increase while afternoon highs decrease. Afternoon min RH values will only drop into the mid and upper 20s. Thunderstorm chances, including a threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, will also increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 102 76 97 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 68 96 66 91 / 20 20 20 30 Las Cruces 69 100 70 95 / 20 20 20 10 Alamogordo 72 99 69 95 / 20 30 20 40 Cloudcroft 54 76 52 72 / 30 40 20 40 Truth or Consequences 73 100 72 95 / 20 20 30 10 Silver City 65 93 65 90 / 50 40 50 30 Deming 68 102 69 98 / 20 20 30 10 Lordsburg 68 98 68 96 / 20 20 60 10 West El Paso Metro 76 101 77 96 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 71 99 69 94 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 75 103 74 98 / 20 20 20 20 Loma Linda 69 94 68 89 / 20 20 20 10 Fabens 74 103 74 98 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 99 73 95 / 20 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 77 101 77 96 / 20 20 20 10 Jornada Range 72 100 72 96 / 20 20 20 10 Hatch 71 103 72 99 / 20 20 20 10 Columbus 73 102 74 98 / 20 20 20 10 Orogrande 71 99 70 94 / 20 20 20 10 Mayhill 58 86 56 81 / 30 20 20 40 Mescalero 57 87 56 83 / 20 40 20 40 Timberon 56 84 54 80 / 20 20 20 30 Winston 62 92 62 88 / 20 20 30 10 Hillsboro 70 98 69 93 / 20 20 40 10 Spaceport 69 100 69 95 / 20 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 59 95 59 90 / 40 60 40 40 Hurley 65 97 65 93 / 40 30 40 10 Cliff 65 99 66 95 / 50 40 50 50 Mule Creek 62 95 63 92 / 50 40 30 50 Faywood 66 96 67 92 / 20 20 50 10 Animas 68 98 67 95 / 20 20 60 10 Hachita 66 97 66 95 / 30 20 50 10 Antelope Wells 66 96 67 94 / 40 20 40 10 Cloverdale 63 90 63 90 / 40 20 60 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.