textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1020 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Continued isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures several degrees below normal.

- Increase in storm activity Friday and Saturday, with a threat of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Upper high over So Dakota with ridge extending down across Colorado and western New Mexico. Retrograding cut-off low no longer well defined but appears to be over south central Texas. Meanwhile, deep layered sub-tropical moisture persists over Arizona and extending down over the Mexican Sonoran Desert and east across northern Mexico. Deformation zone extending from extreme SE Arizona to the Big Bend and eastward is limiting this moisture from moving any further north. Inverted trough from the low extends north over the Texas Panhandle. The northerly flow between this trough and the upper ridge has brought some drier air into the region today.

Wednesday and Thursday...not much change from today. Dry air remains in place on Wednesday so expect another day of isolated afternoon mountain thunderstorms, with just a few late afternoon/evening storms over the lowlands-per consensus of HREF members. Moisture does increase a bit Thursday, and along with mid-level minor cooling, instability increases a bit. Thus just slightly better thunderstorm coverage expected on Thursday.

Friday and through Sunday...upper low is able to make it to the Big Bend/west Texas Friday before slowly dropping south over the Chihuahuan Desert (ECMWF), or further south near the southern Baja (GFS). Best available moisture is Friday into Saturday morning with PWs around 1.0-1.3 inches. This should be the period of best storm coverage and also for some threat of local flooding. Saturday should continue with scattered thunderstorm coverage all areas. The big divergence between models comes on Sunday. GFS has dropped the low as far south as Mazatlan, while the ECMWF keeps the low just south of the CWA. ECMWF solution would keep Sunday in as very active day; the GFS is much drier with just a slight chance of storms. No confidence yet in either solution.

Monday and Tuesday...again model difference apparent. ECMWF still keeps slow movement of the low-eventually morphing to inverted trough still over far eastern Arizona Tuesday. This solution would still keep decent chances of thunderstorms both days, especially west of the RG Valley. On the other hand, the GFS is much drier with perhaps a storm or two near the Arizona border.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period, with SCT100 BKN250. An isolated BKN070CB -SHRA/-TSRA through around 08Z over the Black Range and Gila Region. Surface winds south/southeast 7-10 knots, increasing to east/southeast 10-13G20 knots after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. Isolated showers and storms remain in the forecast for this afternoon and again on Wednesday, mainly over the Gila with some heavy rainfall possible. Storm chances increase later in the week with a low risk of flash flooding, especially over recent burn scars and out west. Temperatures stay below normal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 94 72 92 / 0 20 20 20 Sierra Blanca 61 87 60 86 / 0 20 10 40 Las Cruces 66 92 66 89 / 0 20 20 20 Alamogordo 64 90 64 88 / 0 30 20 40 Cloudcroft 48 69 47 67 / 0 30 20 50 Truth or Consequences 71 92 68 88 / 10 30 30 20 Silver City 63 84 61 81 / 20 50 30 60 Deming 66 93 67 91 / 0 20 20 30 Lordsburg 68 91 68 88 / 10 20 20 70 West El Paso Metro 72 93 73 91 / 0 20 20 20 Dell City 64 90 63 88 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 68 94 68 93 / 0 20 10 20 Loma Linda 63 86 63 84 / 0 20 10 20 Fabens 69 95 69 93 / 0 20 10 20 Santa Teresa 68 92 69 90 / 0 20 20 20 White Sands HQ 72 93 72 91 / 0 20 20 20 Jornada Range 68 92 67 90 / 0 20 20 20 Hatch 69 95 68 92 / 0 20 20 20 Columbus 71 93 72 91 / 0 20 20 20 Orogrande 65 90 65 88 / 0 20 20 10 Mayhill 52 78 51 77 / 10 20 10 30 Mescalero 52 79 51 78 / 0 30 20 50 Timberon 50 77 49 75 / 0 20 10 40 Winston 59 84 57 79 / 10 40 60 60 Hillsboro 66 89 65 86 / 10 30 30 40 Spaceport 66 91 64 88 / 10 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 58 85 60 82 / 20 60 40 80 Hurley 63 87 62 84 / 10 40 30 50 Cliff 62 90 63 87 / 20 50 40 70 Mule Creek 60 87 61 83 / 20 70 40 60 Faywood 64 87 63 84 / 10 30 20 50 Animas 68 93 68 89 / 10 20 20 70 Hachita 66 91 66 89 / 10 20 20 40 Antelope Wells 66 91 68 89 / 10 10 10 30 Cloverdale 63 87 64 82 / 10 10 10 70

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.