textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Warm and breezy this afternoon with thunderstorms and showers. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and gusty winds.

- Mostly dry with breezy conditions Monday through Wednesday.

- Cold blast of air with windy conditions looks increasingly likely late Thursday and early Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

An upper low and the tropical remnants of Rachel have combined today and will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region today and tonight. Will start to see more showers and storms developing initially in the Gila region early this afternoon and storms will gradually trek eastward into the evening hours. Much of the storm activity will be east of the Rio Grande by around 9PM this evening. Some lingering showers possible during the overnight hours. In addition, we will see breezy conditions across the area with sustained winds of 15-25 mph out of the southwest with gusts to 40 mph. Winds will relax after sunset tonight. Continued breeziness Monday and Tuesday afternoons but won't be as breezy as what we'll see today.

By Monday, we're still going to be sandwiched in between an upper low to our northwest and a ridge to our southeast over the Gulf. The area will be in mostly dry southwest flow but some moisture being dragged up from the south (partially from remnants of Simon but also some Gulf moisture) which will give south and east portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties a chance for showers and thunderstorms tomorrow evening, mostly after 6PM which could linger for a while after dark. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature mostly dry to dry conditions across the area with some breeziness. Disagreements between the models start at around Thursday. Long range models still suggest some lingering low pressure to our west pinching off from the main upper low with ridging to our east. Models seem more consistent about a strong backdoor front pushing into the area late Thursday into early Friday morning but still is uncertain as to if we will see any rain out of this front. More than likely will need a wind advisory focusing on the west facing slopes late Thu-early Fri.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected. A broken line of SHRA and TSRA was moving to the northeast along and just east of the Rio Grande at 530z, which means impacts for TAF sites will be ending by the start of the official forecast. Thereafter, ISO SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out, but probability is low. Skies will go from variable to generally SCT-BKN150-250. Gusty SW winds will decrease after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions tomorrow with the exception of portions of Hudspeth and Otero counties as this area is expected to see isolated to scattered storms in the late afternoon and evening. Thereafter, dry conditions persist through at least Wednesday. A strong backdoor cold front is expected to push in from the Great Plains late Thursday and early Friday morning which will bring much cooler temperatures and windy easterly conditions for locations along the Int'l Border and especially windy for west facing slopes. Models are still in disagreement as to whether we could see rain or not from this cold front.

Min RHs in the lowlands will be 25-35% and 40-60% in the area mountains Monday through Thursday. 20 foot winds will be slightly breezy Monday and Tuesday with speeds anywhere from 5-15 mph sustained. Temperatures stay near normal to slightly above average Monday through Wednesday but dips to 10-15 degrees below average Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 86 64 84 / 40 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 86 63 83 / 30 10 30 0 Las Cruces 61 81 58 80 / 20 10 0 0 Alamogordo 62 82 61 81 / 60 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 60 45 58 / 50 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 79 55 79 / 20 0 0 0 Silver City 52 71 50 70 / 30 10 10 10 Deming 58 81 55 80 / 20 10 0 0 Lordsburg 58 78 54 77 / 20 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 84 66 83 / 40 10 0 0 Dell City 64 88 64 86 / 40 0 20 0 Fort Hancock 68 92 67 90 / 50 0 20 0 Loma Linda 61 78 60 77 / 50 10 10 0 Fabens 66 88 64 87 / 50 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 64 83 61 82 / 20 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 84 63 83 / 40 0 0 0 Jornada Range 61 81 58 80 / 30 10 0 0 Hatch 60 83 58 82 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 61 84 59 84 / 20 10 0 0 Orogrande 62 82 59 81 / 50 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 74 52 73 / 40 0 10 0 Mescalero 51 72 50 70 / 40 10 0 0 Timberon 51 69 50 68 / 70 0 10 0 Winston 49 73 47 71 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 78 54 77 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 58 80 55 79 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 69 45 68 / 30 10 10 10 Hurley 52 74 50 73 / 20 10 0 0 Cliff 56 76 54 75 / 50 20 20 20 Mule Creek 53 71 50 70 / 40 20 20 20 Faywood 55 74 53 73 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 59 79 56 79 / 20 10 0 0 Hachita 57 79 55 79 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 81 56 81 / 20 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 73 53 72 / 20 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.