textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

- A drying trend over the weekend will reduce storm chances. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over the high terrain, but most lowland areas will be dry.

- Temperatures will continue to run above normal for early August, with triple-digit highs along the Rio Grande and Tularosa Basin through next week.

- A pattern shift is expected by Wednesday with area wide thunderstorm chances returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

UL high is centered over the Four Corners, and dry air has circulated into the area from the east and northeast. PW values are under an 1" while dewpoints are mostly in the 40s. Additionally, the presence of the high has brought warming throughout the column, further reducing instability. The result has been a significant downturn for convection with only a few storms forming in the CWA this afternoon. We will pretty much remain in this pattern through Tuesday with mainly the Gila and far western lowlands having a chance for storms. Highs will continue to be a few degrees above normal with most lowlands near or just above 100.

By Wednesday, we will see a fairly substantial pattern change. The high over the Four Corners will rapidly weaken with the dominant high shifting across the Southern Plains, extending across the Gulf Coast. This will open the CWA to southerly flow with a subtropical tap of moisture--a more classic monsoonal pattern. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase for the last half of the week though the NBM is playing conservative in the lowlands, but given pattern recognition there should be at least be isolated coverage in the lowlands given PW values over an inch. Given the increased moisture and the departure of the high, temperatures should come down at least a little as well.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW110/250. Winds will generally be light AOB 10 knots with an occasional gust to 20 knots. Direction will vary but typically favoring E or SE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM MDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Drier conditions this weekend with isolated storms over the higher terrain possible. Area mountains and western areas bordering AZ will be favored for storm chances Monday and Tuesday. Looks like a better tap of moisture Wednesday and onward which will increase storm coverage and perhaps even the flooding risk as well.

Temperatures stay 5-8 degrees above normal with 20 foot winds generally light each afternoon at 5-10 mph with calm overnight conditions. Min RHs across the lowlands will be near critical to critical each afternoon through Tuesday at 13-20% and mountain RHs of 20-30%. Better moisture and storm chances lifts min RHs above critical thresholds with values of 18-25% and mountain RHs 30-50%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 99 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 94 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 97 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 76 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 70 98 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 64 91 64 93 / 0 10 10 30 Deming 68 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 74 98 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 69 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 67 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 99 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 96 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 98 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 98 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 101 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 55 87 57 88 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 60 91 61 92 / 0 10 10 10 Hillsboro 67 97 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 67 98 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 91 59 92 / 0 10 10 40 Hurley 65 94 65 95 / 0 0 10 10 Cliff 66 99 67 99 / 0 10 10 40 Mule Creek 65 95 65 95 / 10 10 20 40 Faywood 66 93 67 95 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 69 99 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 97 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 68 97 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 65 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.