textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest for the Sacramento Mountains on Saturday, with some slow-moving storms along the east slopes possible again.

- There's a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm working into eastern El Paso county Saturday evening. Breezy outflow winds from the east are a more likely scenario around, and shortly after sunset. - Lowland highs will stay in the upper 90s and lower triple digits each afternoon through the week ahead.

- Scattered thunderstorms in mountain areas starting Monday persisting through much of the work week. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Upper high stays broadly over the area through around Tuesday. The upper high then becomes shunted westward leaving the area under northerly to northeast flow midweek to late next week. Moisture will stay put under the high to allow for daily thunderstorm chances. Storms this afternoon are expected to stay confined east of the Rio Grande with the Sacramento Mtns seeing the best chances and coverage for storms. Gusty outflow winds still expected near thunderstorms. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest an outflow pushing west from the thunderstorms early this evening with a timing that may impact fireworks shows. Current outflow timing is around 8/9PM tonight. Storm activity will dwindle after sunset. Sunday afternoon looks more active than what we'll see today and also more widespread chances for thunderstorms. Looks like we'll have an added shortwave trough to help activate storms tomorrow. Somewhat better moisture flushes in on Monday which will raise our PWs to around 1.1". Tuesday through Thursday PWs will be 1.1"-1.2" which is nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year. Water loaded storms like this will add to the flooding threat those days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Another round of showers and thunderstorms for locations east of the Rio Grande. Most terminals don't have a chance to see a storm this afternoon but KTCS has a chance to see a shower which could produce gusty outflow winds. Hi-res guidance is suggesting an outflow to push from east to west tonight around 7-9PM shifting winds easterly for KELP and even KLRU. Otherwise, winds stay generally light outside of outflows with high clouds staying overhead.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Critical min RHs persist into Sunday for lowland locations west of the Rio Grande. Values will range from 11-15% across the lowlands. The Gila region will be just above critical thresholds at 16-19%. East of the Rio Grande, min RHs will be 16-20% with the Sacramento Mtns seeing RHs of 30-40%. Thunderstorm chances looks to be more widespread Sunday and a bit more active. One thing to note will be the dry lightning threat tomorrow in the Gila region. ERCs are up to the 90th-96th percentile, coupled with virga thunderstorms that are expected tomorrow in this area. Monday through Thursday the area can expect daily thunderstorm chances with scattered storms in the area mountains and isolated storms in the lowlands. Min RHs Monday will be mostly above critical thresholds but some desert lowland locations will see 14-15% RHs in far SW NM but the rest of the lowlands will see RHs up to 20% and 35-45% in the mountains. Few percent increase in min RHs Tuesday compared to Monday. Desert lowland min RHs dip Wednesday and even into Thursday returning critical min RHs again to much of the lowlands by Thursday. Mountain RHs midweek will be 25-40%. 20 foot winds stay fairly light each afternoon through late next week with calm winds overnight. Speeds will generally be 5-10 mph outside of thunderstorm outflows.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 101 77 99 / 10 30 20 10 Sierra Blanca 69 95 68 94 / 10 20 10 10 Las Cruces 71 98 69 97 / 0 30 20 10 Alamogordo 73 97 69 96 / 30 50 0 40 Cloudcroft 55 74 52 73 / 30 70 10 70 Truth or Consequences 73 97 71 97 / 0 20 10 30 Silver City 68 93 67 92 / 10 20 10 70 Deming 70 101 69 100 / 0 20 10 10 Lordsburg 71 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 20 West El Paso Metro 78 99 76 98 / 10 30 20 10 Dell City 72 98 69 97 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 76 102 75 101 / 10 20 10 10 Loma Linda 71 93 69 91 / 20 30 20 20 Fabens 76 101 75 100 / 0 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 74 98 72 97 / 0 30 20 10 White Sands HQ 79 98 76 98 / 20 40 20 10 Jornada Range 72 98 70 97 / 10 40 10 10 Hatch 73 101 70 100 / 0 30 10 20 Columbus 75 102 75 101 / 0 10 10 10 Orogrande 72 97 69 95 / 20 40 20 20 Mayhill 59 84 56 84 / 20 50 20 50 Mescalero 58 85 56 84 / 0 70 10 70 Timberon 57 83 54 81 / 30 50 20 60 Winston 64 89 62 88 / 10 20 10 70 Hillsboro 71 95 69 94 / 10 20 10 50 Spaceport 70 97 67 96 / 0 40 10 30 Lake Roberts 61 92 61 92 / 20 20 0 80 Hurley 68 96 67 95 / 10 20 0 50 Cliff 69 98 68 98 / 10 20 0 60 Mule Creek 67 95 66 95 / 0 10 0 50 Faywood 69 94 68 93 / 10 20 0 40 Animas 71 99 71 99 / 0 0 0 20 Hachita 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 70 99 72 99 / 0 10 10 10 Cloverdale 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.