textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

- A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures and breezy east winds over the weekend, with scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms with highest chances toward Central New Mexico.

- Breezy west flow returns Monday and Tuesday, and a few showers and thunderstorms may return to southwestern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

The primary UL low is exiting the region this morning with us on its backside, but we are not done with precip chances. With us on the backside of the low, there is plenty of wrap around dynamics, cold pool aloft, and moisture. Additionally, a secondary piece of energy is located over NW NM. Thus, we can expect more scattered showers with isolated thunder throughout the day today with best chances across the Gila and northern lowlands. The energy over NW NM will be quasi-stationary and form a closed low tonight. This will keep rain chances in the picture for Saturday though mainly for Central NM and into Albuquerque's CWA. It's a little unclear how far south showers and potential thunder will get, but chances of reaching El Paso are about 10% or less, which is good news for all the concerts and events planned.

An UL ridge will build over the Desert SW on Sunday but moisture will remain in place. The GFS shows a s/w trough trying to cut through the ridge with additional showers and isolated thunder, mainly over the Gila into Central NM. The Euro is much quieter with this feature. Probability for precip is quite low, under 10%, for El Paso, but it will be a feature to keep an eye on for subsequent updates.

We start a slow transition to zonal and southwesterly flow on Monday as a large UL low forms over CA with a strengthening subtropical jet over the Desert SW. This pattern will return us to our typical breezy pattern with temperatures warming dramatically on Monday. Both models show a weak disturbance coming out of the Gulf of California/ subtropical Pacific on Tuesday, bringing rain and storm chances to mainly the northwest half of the CWA. Winds will be breeziest on Tuesday.

The dry slot pushes through on Wednesday as the aforementioned UL low opens into a wave and passes across NM. It looks like we will be north of the jet and south of the moisture, so a tranquil day is forecast with highs a few degrees below normal. A new closed low will form over Northwestern Mexico but with no moisture tap. What will result from this pattern is weak flow throughout the column with seasonal temperatures to end the forecast for Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected today with MVFR and IFR conditions becoming more likely for most sites overnight. Skies will be variable with bases ranging 025-070 throughout the afternoon. Overnight bases may approach LIFR especially for LRU. We also will see SCT SHRA and ISO TSRA, which may bring Category reductions via VIS and CIG reductions.

Winds will be breezy as well mainly from the north and northeast with speeds around 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1115 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are in the forecast for today and tomorrow with plenty of moisture in place. Min RH values will be in the min 30s or higher, aided by much below normal temperatures. The added moisture and an upper-level storm system will also foster scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Saturday we will be a little warmer, which will lead to lower min RH values in the mid 20s. We will see additional showers and thunderstorms but with lesser coverage than today. Venting for today and Saturday with generally be fair to good with some pockets of poor.

We enter a rapid warming on Sunday but moisture will remain in place. Drying begins on Monday while winds increase. The strongest winds are forecast for Tuesday but min RH values are expected to stay in the lower to middle 20s. Drier air pushes in for Wednesday but with lighter winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 51 72 54 81 / 20 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 43 65 46 75 / 30 10 0 0 Las Cruces 45 68 47 77 / 50 10 10 0 Alamogordo 46 66 45 74 / 50 40 10 0 Cloudcroft 31 44 32 53 / 60 50 10 10 Truth or Consequences 49 67 49 76 / 70 50 20 10 Silver City 43 64 45 70 / 40 30 10 10 Deming 48 72 49 81 / 50 20 0 10 Lordsburg 48 72 51 77 / 20 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 69 55 79 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 45 66 44 76 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 74 51 84 / 20 10 0 0 Loma Linda 44 62 48 71 / 20 10 10 0 Fabens 50 72 52 81 / 20 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 48 68 49 78 / 30 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 50 67 51 77 / 50 20 10 0 Jornada Range 45 67 44 76 / 60 30 20 0 Hatch 48 70 46 79 / 70 30 10 0 Columbus 50 72 52 81 / 30 10 0 0 Orogrande 46 65 46 75 / 40 20 10 0 Mayhill 34 54 35 66 / 50 40 10 0 Mescalero 34 55 35 64 / 60 60 20 10 Timberon 33 52 36 62 / 40 40 10 0 Winston 38 57 38 67 / 70 60 20 10 Hillsboro 46 64 46 74 / 70 40 20 10 Spaceport 45 66 43 75 / 70 40 20 10 Lake Roberts 39 64 40 71 / 60 50 10 10 Hurley 43 67 44 74 / 40 30 10 10 Cliff 46 72 46 77 / 40 30 10 10 Mule Creek 43 69 45 74 / 30 30 0 10 Faywood 44 65 46 71 / 60 30 10 10 Animas 49 72 51 79 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 47 70 49 77 / 20 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 72 49 79 / 10 20 0 0 Cloverdale 47 69 51 75 / 10 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.