textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- A pattern shift across the region will bring steadily cooling temperatures, increasing moisture, and increasing thunderstorm coverage over the next several days.

- The threat of localized flash flooding will spread from southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, across the wider area Wednesday and Thursday.

- High temperatures will drop into the 80s across the lowlands by Wednesday or Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

After nearly hitting 100F at the El Paso Airport on both Friday and Saturday we are finally seeing a pattern change to not as hot (too early to call it cooler), with a good chance for rain. Currently the upper level ridge that has kept us dry and hot this Summer has moved off and is centered over the southeast U.S. The circulation around the high will pull up moisture from northern Mexico. This increased moisture will help fuel scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms this evening through much of the coming week. Our high temperatures each day will be steadily falling so that by Thursday and Friday we will have high temperatures near or (gasp) a little below average. Seasonal temperatures look to continue into the coming weekend. These lower high temperatures will give the lowlands highs in the 80's for Thursday into the weekend, which we have not seen consistently since early June.

The increased moisture will give us better rain chances, but it will also increase the risk for flash flooding. Precipitable water values (PW's) will increase into the range of 1.1 to 1.3 which is well above average for this time of year. For now the main threat for flooding will be in the Gila Region on Tuesday, but it may expand to include locations west of the Rio Grande on Wednesday and across the whole area on Thursday. The chances for rain continue into Saturday. The forecast beyond Saturday is a little more in doubt as the extended GFS dries us out, while the extended ECMWF continues the influx and moisture and rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

We will see scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The best chances for seeing a thunderstorm will be at KDMN and KTCS this evening, but KLRU and KELP could also see some convection. Our ceilings continue to clear this morning from last night convection. By early afternoon mid clouds will be on the increase again and we will see mid and high ceilings this evening across the area SCT-BKN120-250. We could see some lower ceilings closer to thunderstorms. We also may see convection linger past midnight as it did last night. Surface winds this afternoon and evening will be generally from the west at 8 to 12 knots. A few thunderstorms may produce strong and gusty outflow winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

We have seen a pattern switch away from warm/hot and dry weather to not as hot with better chances for rain. The best chances for rain will be west of the Rio Grande over the next several days with the threat of flooding a possibility in the Gila Region. Min RH's for Tuesday through the end of the week will be at or above 30% area wide, with excellent RH recoveries at night. Surface winds will stay well below critical values. We could see some gusty outflow winds especially tonight from area thunderstorms. Ventilation rates the next couple of days looks fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 71 94 70 91 / 20 10 70 40 Sierra Blanca 66 92 64 90 / 20 30 50 30 Las Cruces 66 91 65 89 / 40 20 70 50 Alamogordo 66 91 66 90 / 50 20 60 60 Cloudcroft 51 69 49 67 / 40 50 60 80 Truth or Consequences 66 87 66 85 / 60 40 60 70 Silver City 61 83 60 80 / 40 60 70 80 Deming 66 91 64 88 / 50 20 60 50 Lordsburg 67 87 66 84 / 50 30 70 70 West El Paso Metro 70 93 70 90 / 20 10 70 40 Dell City 69 96 67 93 / 10 20 60 40 Fort Hancock 72 99 71 97 / 30 30 60 40 Loma Linda 66 87 65 85 / 30 10 60 40 Fabens 70 95 69 93 / 20 10 70 40 Santa Teresa 68 92 67 89 / 30 10 70 40 White Sands HQ 71 92 70 90 / 40 30 70 50 Jornada Range 66 91 65 88 / 50 30 60 60 Hatch 67 92 66 90 / 40 40 70 60 Columbus 70 92 68 89 / 60 20 70 40 Orogrande 65 90 65 89 / 30 20 70 60 Mayhill 57 82 55 79 / 30 70 50 80 Mescalero 55 80 53 78 / 50 50 60 90 Timberon 54 79 53 77 / 20 30 60 70 Winston 56 79 56 76 / 40 80 50 90 Hillsboro 66 86 65 84 / 50 50 70 70 Spaceport 64 89 64 87 / 60 30 60 60 Lake Roberts 56 82 56 79 / 40 70 60 90 Hurley 62 85 61 82 / 40 50 70 70 Cliff 64 89 64 86 / 40 50 70 90 Mule Creek 62 84 62 81 / 40 40 70 80 Faywood 64 85 63 82 / 40 50 70 70 Animas 67 88 66 85 / 60 40 70 80 Hachita 66 88 64 85 / 50 40 70 60 Antelope Wells 66 88 64 85 / 50 50 70 70 Cloverdale 63 82 62 81 / 50 50 70 80

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.