textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 954 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Temperatures will continue to warm up on Thursday; some moisture moving into the east could produce a few afternoon/evening showers/thunderstorms.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday into early Saturday, especially near and east of the Rio Grande.

- Dry and windy conditions are expected starting Sunday through Tuesday, with blowing dust likely. Fire conditions becoming at least elevated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

WV imagery showing flat ridge over the CWA at this time. Meanwhile a small upper low over the central Gulf of California will continue to slowly track east across northern Mexico. Expect most of the area to remain dry and quite warm Thursday. However models continue to show the aforementioned upper low to turn low level winds around to southeast Thursday afternoon, allowing some moisture advection into the eastern CWA. HRRR also shows outflow from west Texas storms pushing more moisture to the eastern CWA, though that would be in the later evening. Thus low POPs are probably warranted for Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Less enamored with POPS for the Gila, but models have been pretty steady on that so will leave in grids.

By Friday, Pacific upper low central California will bring a much broader south/southeast flow across our area. Though it looks like the actual dry-line will remain just east of our area, quite a bit of moisture does advect in, bringing decent chances for thunderstorms into much of the CWA, with best chances from the RG Valley east. Model instability parameters fairly modest but could see a few strong thunderstorms toward Fri evening. Same story for Saturday, though moisture begins to drift east. Upper low lifts out over the Great Basin with associated trough reaching western New Mexico late in the afternoon. Decent chance of thunderstorms again, but am concerned about most models not named NAM12 bringing the drying in from the west. Models actually show respectable instability Saturday, so if low level moisture remains, we could see a few strong storms approaching severe.

Next Pacific upper low quickly moves into central California Sunday. This rapidly brings large dry slot over the CWA, ending any chance of rain. This begins a procession of upper lows/vort centers across to the northwest of our area through Tuesday. Thus dry conditions to prevail and each upper low passage over the Great Basin/northern New Mexico will bring windy conditions each day Sunday through Tuesday. Depending on how much rain the area gets Fri/Sat, the Sunday through Tuesday period will see at least elevated fire conditions, possibly approaching critical. A little bit of March we rarely saw--scheduled for April!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 954 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions through the period. SKC-FEW100. After 18Z...SCT- BKN100 with a slight chance of BKN070CB -SHRA/-TSRA over the mountains and Hudspeth Co. Variable winds AOB 7 knots. Winds becoming southwest 8-12 knots after 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Temperatures will warm up to about 8 to 10 degrees above normal on Thursday as light southwest winds return to the area. There is a low chance for a brief shower or two around the Black Range in the afternoon.

A push of moisture from the east will arrive Thursday night, aided by outflow from thunderstorms over the Big Bend Region. This will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of our area Friday, mainly near and east of the Rio Grande, but with isolated thunderstorms possible over the Gila as well. Wetting rain is expected with these storms, but this won't negate the risk of lightning starts.

A drier and windier pattern, more typical of what we expect in springtime, looks to set up from Saturday into Monday or Tuesday. RH values will take some time to drop off after the expected rainfall, but critical fire weather conditions may set up at least for the lowlands as early as Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 87 60 86 / 0 0 10 20 Sierra Blanca 50 81 51 82 / 0 20 10 20 Las Cruces 51 84 53 83 / 0 10 10 20 Alamogordo 48 84 52 85 / 0 10 10 40 Cloudcroft 39 63 41 62 / 0 20 10 50 Truth or Consequences 53 83 54 82 / 0 20 10 30 Silver City 49 77 50 75 / 0 10 0 20 Deming 51 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 20 Lordsburg 49 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 59 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 20 Dell City 48 85 51 85 / 0 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 54 89 56 90 / 0 20 10 20 Loma Linda 53 80 55 80 / 0 10 10 20 Fabens 54 88 58 89 / 0 10 10 20 Santa Teresa 53 85 56 85 / 0 0 10 20 White Sands HQ 58 86 59 85 / 0 10 10 20 Jornada Range 46 85 49 84 / 0 10 10 20 Hatch 46 87 49 86 / 0 10 10 20 Columbus 54 88 56 86 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 46 84 52 84 / 0 10 10 30 Mayhill 43 75 44 74 / 0 20 10 50 Mescalero 42 74 43 72 / 0 20 10 50 Timberon 42 72 43 70 / 0 20 10 40 Winston 41 76 42 74 / 0 20 10 30 Hillsboro 52 82 53 80 / 0 10 0 20 Spaceport 45 84 47 82 / 0 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 37 78 38 76 / 0 10 0 20 Hurley 46 80 48 78 / 0 10 0 20 Cliff 35 85 37 82 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 33 80 34 78 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 50 80 52 78 / 0 10 0 20 Animas 51 85 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 49 85 51 83 / 0 0 0 20 Antelope Wells 52 84 53 83 / 0 0 0 20 Cloverdale 53 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.