textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 423 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

- Very cold temperatures are expected tonight/Sunday morning, with teens and 20s in the lowlands, and single digits in the higher mountains. Wind chills under 15 degrees expected west.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Monday. A gradual warmup to near or slightly above normal temperatures starting Tuesday.

- Some clouds and a slight chance of showers for Hudspeth County Monday and Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

High amplitude ridge over the west coast and Intermountain West continues to provide chilly air to the CWA in the northwest flow. Strongly positive tilted trough persists, extending from the NM Bootheel up through the Texas Panhandle. For tonight, look for chilly low temps to continue, though maybe a degree or two higher than this morning. Hence, will issue another Cold Weather Advisory for Luna and Hidalgo Counties overnight tonight.

Models showing small closed low forming in the trough over the Mexican Sonoran Desert tonight. The main model suite all show this low eventually dropping south to near the southern Baja later Sunday night and drawing some sub-tropical moisture up over the Big Bend and up to Hudspeth County. NAM12 quickest and most bullish with precip chances Monday/Monday night, but will go more with GFS/ECMWF slower speed and just barely nicking Hudspeth County. Will keep the precip type rain, but the few highest peaks of Hudspeth could get dusted with snow.

Positively tilted trough develops cut off low even further west by Tuesday, undercutting the eastern Pacific ridge and slowly forming Rex-Block ridge just off the west coast for the rest of the work week. Thus, we will see a modest warmup as the cold northwest flow is pushed further east by this blocking ridge.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 423 PM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly SKC expected. E-NE winds persist, staying mostly AOB 8kts. Winds increase somewhat Sun afternoon, especially for KDMN where the pressure gradient remains tight. Gusts to 25kts are forecast for KDMN with some gusts up to 20kts for KELP after 18z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1014 AM MST Sat Jan 10 2026

Not much in the way of fire weather concerns. We will remain in a cool, easterly surface wind pattern for much of the week ahead, though temperatures will gradually moderate back to near normal after Monday. Other than a slight chance of showers over Hudspeth County Monday/Monday night, the fire zones should remain dry. Winds breezy winds on Sunday at 10-20 mph, but otherwise light winds for the remainder of the week. Min humidities remain a bit elevated due to the cool airmass.

Min RH: Lowlands 18-25% through Friday. Mountains 20-35% through Friday. Vent rates fair-good Sunday, becoming mostly poor Monday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 28 55 33 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 22 50 31 50 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 22 51 27 52 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 21 51 24 54 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 16 37 18 42 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 24 50 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 23 46 26 49 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 25 52 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 27 49 29 53 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 29 54 35 55 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 17 54 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 21 56 33 56 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 25 48 31 50 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 23 56 32 56 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 24 52 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 28 53 32 55 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 18 52 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 21 54 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 25 52 31 54 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 22 53 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 18 47 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 17 48 19 52 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 16 45 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 14 44 18 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 24 49 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 18 51 19 54 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 15 47 18 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 22 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 17 54 19 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 13 51 16 54 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 27 47 28 52 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 26 50 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 24 49 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 23 50 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 28 45 30 49 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM MST Monday for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel.