textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A slow moving area of low pressure aloft will keep an active monsoon pattern in place over the area on today and Monday. Localized torrential downpours and flash flooding will continue to be a risk, including the El Paso and Las Cruces areas this afternoon and evening.

- The focus for thunderstorms will try to shift a little west of the Rio Grande on Tuesday, then closer to the Arizona border for Wednesday.

- Storm chances plummet from Wednesday,into the weekend, and temperatures will begin to increase above normal again. 100s may creep back into the lowlands Friday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Upper high still located over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska/Kansas, with ridge extending down to western Arizona/SoCal. Old cut-off low is pretty ill defined but looks to still be over the Big Bend region. Plenty of moisture remains for today (PWs of 1.20-1.40 inches); main issue will be if the leftover clouds can dissipate. Mountain zones are already mostly sunny and getting the first CU buildups of the day and the northern lowlands look to be thinning out, while the clouds closer to the border remain fairly thick. This could be related to a possible MCV just southwest of El Paso. Various models (CAM and hemispheric) have plenty of convection this afternoon and evening. Expect scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over mountains, with scattered evening storms all areas. Main threat will be heavy rain and flooding. Also, though DCAPEs are relatively low, severe, damaging winds are possibly near any wet microbursts.

Monday and Tuesday...old upper low approaches El Paso Monday night and moves to the Arizona border Tuesday afternoon opening up into an inverted trough. Still expect plenty of convection Monday, and with PWs mostly unchanged, flash flooding will still be a threat. By Tuesday, best storm chances will be west of the RG Valley, which will still continue with a threat of flash flooding.

Wednesday and Thursday...inverted trough moves out of our area into Arizona. Any chance of rain will remain over the far western CWA. PWs will approach 1.00 inch Wednesday and below Thursday, so heavy rain/flooding threat should be done. Temperatures will climb back to seasonal levels.

Friday through the weekend...turns dry with maybe just the slightest of chances of thunderstorms over the mountains. Temperatures will warm back above normal, with the lowlands back 100-105 degrees.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Convection is active and on going across the region. Thunderstorms are near KLRU and KELP as of this writing. Thunderstorms have cleared out of KTCS, though some showers continue to linger in the area. KDMN could see some thunderstorm activity in the next 3 hours. The thunderstorms will continue to loosely move to south and east over the next 4 to 6 hours. By midnight most of the convection should be wrapped up, but we will continue to have mid ceilings of 100-150BKN. Mid and high ceilings will continue into the morning hours on Monday. We will see another chance for thunderstorms on Monday afternoon and evening. The main aviation threats will be lower ceilings and visibilities and strong outflow winds which could kick up some blowing dust. We will update TAFs as tomorrow's convective trends become better organized.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

No fire weather issues to be concerned with through most of this week, as moisture/humidity remain high through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon/evening and again on Monday, before the chance of rain moves out mostly over areas Deming west Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal. For Friday into the weekend drier air moves in with little or no chance of rain. Min RHs lower with lowland RHs approaching critical. Temperatures will warm back above normal. No significant non-thunderstorm winds expected.

Min RH: Lowlands 35-45% through Tuesday, then decreasing to 15-25% by Thursday and Friday. Mountains 50-70% through Tuesday, then decreasing to 20-35% by Thursday and Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 88 70 90 / 60 40 60 20 Sierra Blanca 63 82 62 88 / 70 70 40 20 Las Cruces 65 86 64 87 / 40 50 60 40 Alamogordo 65 85 65 88 / 30 70 40 70 Cloudcroft 49 66 49 69 / 30 80 40 80 Truth or Consequences 69 89 68 88 / 20 40 40 70 Silver City 60 81 59 81 / 40 90 60 90 Deming 65 89 64 90 / 50 60 50 60 Lordsburg 65 87 64 86 / 50 70 70 80 West El Paso Metro 71 86 70 89 / 60 40 60 20 Dell City 67 88 66 92 / 40 60 40 20 Fort Hancock 70 89 69 94 / 70 60 50 30 Loma Linda 64 80 63 83 / 60 60 60 30 Fabens 69 88 68 92 / 70 40 60 20 Santa Teresa 67 86 66 89 / 60 40 60 20 White Sands HQ 71 87 71 89 / 30 60 60 40 Jornada Range 66 87 66 88 / 20 50 50 60 Hatch 67 91 66 91 / 20 50 40 60 Columbus 69 89 68 88 / 60 50 60 50 Orogrande 66 85 65 88 / 40 50 60 30 Mayhill 54 77 54 80 / 30 70 30 70 Mescalero 53 77 53 79 / 30 90 40 80 Timberon 51 73 51 76 / 30 70 60 70 Winston 58 82 58 81 / 40 60 40 80 Hillsboro 64 86 64 86 / 20 60 40 80 Spaceport 64 87 63 88 / 20 50 40 60 Lake Roberts 58 83 57 83 / 40 90 60 90 Hurley 61 84 60 83 / 40 80 60 80 Cliff 63 87 63 87 / 40 80 50 90 Mule Creek 59 84 58 84 / 40 90 50 90 Faywood 62 84 62 83 / 30 80 60 80 Animas 65 87 64 86 / 60 70 70 80 Hachita 63 86 63 85 / 60 70 70 70 Antelope Wells 65 84 64 85 / 70 70 70 80 Cloverdale 61 80 61 80 / 50 70 70 80

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.