textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- We will continue to see very warm temperatures through the coming weekend, with lowland high temperatures near the century mark each afternoon.

- We will see isolated to scattered thunderstorm for Thursday with the best chances for rain in area mountains.

- Our very warm temperature will continue into the first of next week with a continued chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly in area mountains and west of the Continental Divide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The summer heat will drag on, though not quite as hot as earlier this week. For Thursday and Friday, an area of upper level high pressure will continue to be centered over western New Mexico. This ridge will keep our high temperatures running 5 to 10 degrees above average. That will keep lowland high temperature at or a little above the triple digit mark. Our rain chances will continue to be limited, with the best chances for rain in area mountains. Like tonight, a few thunderstorms will create some gusty outflow winds which could move off quite a distance from their parent thunderstorms.

For the weekend, the upper level ridge will begin an eastward jog. But the eastward movement is not enough to help set up a deep monsoon flow across our region. The majority of the monsoon moisture will be pumped into central and eastern Arizona. We will continue to stay mainly dry with a chance for rain in area mountains and west of the Continental Divide. High temperatures both afternoons will run 4 to 8 degrees above average.

For the start of next week, the main section of the upper level ridge is well to our east, but it will extend back to the west and into our region in an elongated fashion. So despite some moisture near the surface, we will continue to see limited rain chances. High temperature will continue to be 3 to 7 degrees above average. As we head into September the tropical Pacific begins to get more active. The position of the upper level ridge will make all the difference in whether we are able to pull some of the tropical moisture in our direction or if all the tropical moisture and energy heads on off out into the Pacific.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT 090-250. Winds will mainly be from the S or SE but with considerable variability with sustained speeds AOB 10 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. ISO SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon and evening with about a 20% chance for sites to be affected. Regardless of direct impacts, wind shifts from outflows are likely with speeds up to 35 knots. BLDU may occur as well with outflows.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Moisture has increased some while afternoon highs will not be quite as hot today. This will lead to min RH values in the mid to upper teens this afternoon as well as scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms. Apart from storm outflows, winds will be light with fair to good venting. Rain chances will be limited to mountains and western lowlands for this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 99 75 100 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 94 66 95 / 20 10 0 0 Las Cruces 70 98 70 98 / 30 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 96 69 98 / 20 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 51 73 51 73 / 30 60 10 40 Truth or Consequences 72 97 71 97 / 20 10 30 0 Silver City 65 92 64 91 / 30 30 50 10 Deming 71 99 70 100 / 20 0 10 0 Lordsburg 72 99 70 98 / 10 0 40 0 West El Paso Metro 77 99 77 99 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 69 97 69 99 / 20 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 102 74 102 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 91 68 92 / 20 10 0 0 Fabens 73 100 73 100 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 98 73 98 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 98 74 99 / 20 10 10 0 Jornada Range 70 97 70 98 / 20 0 10 0 Hatch 72 101 71 102 / 30 0 20 0 Columbus 75 100 75 100 / 20 0 10 0 Orogrande 68 95 68 97 / 20 10 0 0 Mayhill 56 85 56 87 / 20 50 10 30 Mescalero 55 84 56 85 / 30 60 10 40 Timberon 54 82 54 83 / 20 50 10 10 Winston 60 89 60 89 / 20 40 30 40 Hillsboro 69 96 68 97 / 30 20 30 10 Spaceport 69 97 69 98 / 20 0 20 0 Lake Roberts 59 91 58 90 / 30 60 50 20 Hurley 66 94 65 94 / 20 10 50 10 Cliff 69 100 67 98 / 20 30 60 10 Mule Creek 66 96 64 94 / 20 20 60 10 Faywood 68 93 68 93 / 30 10 30 0 Animas 71 100 70 99 / 20 0 30 0 Hachita 71 98 70 97 / 20 0 10 0 Antelope Wells 69 98 69 97 / 20 0 10 0 Cloverdale 68 94 66 92 / 20 10 30 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.