textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 419 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Increasing chances for light to moderate rain showers Friday afternoon and Saturday, especially in Hudspeth County.

- Cooler temperatures for the weekend, returning to near normal by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 845 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Cool temperatures will persist through the night as a surface high settles over the Texas Panhandle, keeping prevailing winds blowing from the east. Heading into Friday, the GFS and ECMWF continue to trend towards the upper-level trough moving through the Rockies transitioning into a closed low over Arizona, allowing more moisture to be pulled up from northern Mexico. PWAT levels are expected to be around 0.6" for Friday, which is not sufficient for soaking rains given limited instability, though total rainfall amounts are expected to be light to moderate; areas east of the Rio Grande favored to see rainfall totals near half an inch into Saturday, especially Hudspeth County.

The progression of rain showers will start from southwestern New Mexico Friday afternoon before moving east along the US-Mexico border Friday evening. Rain will linger over east of El Paso into Saturday (about a 70-90% chance). Widespread cloud cover and a weak backdoor cold front sliding in from the east Friday evening will keep lowland high temperatures stuck in the upper 50s for Saturday (or about 10-15 degrees below average). Portions of the Sacramento Mountains could see a wintry mix or snow on Saturday as temperatures hang around the low to mid 30s, though accumulation is unlikely.

Rain chances dwindle on Sunday as the low moves east, though Hudspeth County will see some lingering showers. Temperatures begin their gradual warmup on Sunday as drier air moves in. Temperatures will return to normal on Wednesday. Looking ahead, both the GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that conditions will be dry through midweek, with both runs showing a pronounced upper- level ridge over our area on Thursday, though we will continue to monitor for any changes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 845 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Some easterly winds at 5-10 kt will prevail through the overnight hours and into the day on Friday. VFR conditions are expected for the entire observation period, though skies will be covered by BKN-OVC100 clouds later in the observation period. Some rain showers are expected to enter the region from the west around 18Z and become more prolonged along the border into the overnight hours on Saturday, though this will be represented in subsequent TAF runs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 PM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

An upper level disturbance will bring widespread light to moderate rain showers to the region Friday evening through Saturday. Rain will linger the longest near and east of the Rio Grande on Saturday. Meanwhile, a weak backdoor cold front will slide in from the east. Very light winds behind the front, both at the surface and aloft, will promote poor ventilation conditions through the weekend.

Meanwhile, temperatures will trend below normal this weekend, with RH values remaining elevated. The rainfall will help maintain low ERC values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 50 67 50 57 / 0 10 70 100 Sierra Blanca 45 64 47 53 / 0 0 80 100 Las Cruces 45 63 45 57 / 0 10 80 70 Alamogordo 43 64 46 60 / 0 10 70 30 Cloudcroft 31 44 32 37 / 0 10 80 50 Truth or Consequences 44 62 47 61 / 0 20 50 10 Silver City 43 56 42 57 / 0 40 70 30 Deming 44 63 44 58 / 0 10 60 50 Lordsburg 45 62 45 59 / 0 30 70 40 West El Paso Metro 51 66 51 57 / 0 10 80 100 Dell City 45 66 48 58 / 0 0 80 90 Fort Hancock 50 73 51 62 / 0 10 80 100 Loma Linda 44 59 44 50 / 0 10 80 100 Fabens 51 71 50 59 / 0 10 70 100 Santa Teresa 48 65 48 56 / 0 10 80 100 White Sands HQ 49 64 50 58 / 0 10 80 80 Jornada Range 42 64 45 59 / 0 10 70 60 Hatch 44 67 48 62 / 0 10 70 50 Columbus 48 66 48 57 / 0 10 60 80 Orogrande 45 64 47 57 / 0 10 70 60 Mayhill 34 54 36 47 / 0 10 80 60 Mescalero 34 57 35 50 / 0 10 80 40 Timberon 32 54 35 46 / 0 10 80 70 Winston 35 55 37 54 / 0 20 60 10 Hillsboro 44 61 45 59 / 0 20 60 40 Spaceport 41 64 46 61 / 0 20 60 20 Lake Roberts 37 58 38 57 / 0 40 60 20 Hurley 42 59 41 57 / 0 30 80 50 Cliff 45 63 44 65 / 0 40 50 20 Mule Creek 43 59 40 61 / 0 50 40 10 Faywood 44 58 44 56 / 0 20 70 60 Animas 46 64 46 58 / 0 20 70 40 Hachita 45 63 44 56 / 0 10 70 70 Antelope Wells 45 66 45 55 / 0 10 80 80 Cloverdale 45 62 42 53 / 0 40 80 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.