textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 251 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- An upper level disturbance and cool front will bring breezy to windy conditions this afternoon, along with scattered showers. Gusts 35 to 45 will be common , with stronger gusts around 50 mph in the Sacramento Mountains.

- Higher humidity, especially in the higher terrain will limit fire weather concerns.

- Warm temperatures through Friday before a cold front pushes in this weekend, ushering in seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures for this weekend and the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1038 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An upper level trough currently moving into western Nevada will track eastward. The core of this system will graze northern New Mexico, but the trough axis will extend south of the border, reaching the Rio Grande in New Mexico by mid-afternoon tomorrow (Wed). Some limited mid and low-level moisture will get pulled up ahead of this system, sweeping a band of scattered showers across the area from late morning through mid-afternoon. The best chances for (light) measurable rainfall will be across the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains, with spotty precip across the lowlands.

Surface lee low formation with this system will be across east- central Colorado, due to the northerly track of the main trough. The pressure gradient and low level winds will still support W to WSW winds gusting around 35 to 45 mph, with gusts around 50 mph in exposed areas of the Sacramento Mountains. This will be enough wind to kick up a least patchy blowing dust, but with the lack of strong winds so far this spring, confidence in how dust sources will react is low.

Behind this system, temperatures will climb back into the mid-80s across the lowlands for Thursday and Friday. But a cold front working in from the north will cool temperatures down to near normal for Saturday, and a few degrees below normal for Sunday.

Easterly flow could try to sneak some limited moisture into the area early next week, but precip chances look low.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Generally VFR conditions with SCT100 BKN-OVC250. Spreading to area from the west with cold front, after 18Z...scattered BKN080 with isolated BKN060 -SHRA. Showers ending by 00Z west of the RG Valley and by 03Z RG Valley east. Surface winds southwest AOB 7 knots. Winds increasing after 18Z to west 15-25G35 knots. Higher gusts to 45 knots over the Sacramento Mtns and along east slopes of terrain. Patchy areas of 3-5SM BLDU over much of the lowlands from 18Z-23Z. Winds diminishing some near sunset, and then more quickly remainder of the evening. KDMN and KLRU TAFs have best chance and low vsby due to BLDU. Note: will issue AWW for KELP for the afternoon winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 251 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Fire conditions will remain elevated to near-critical today and again on Thursday. Cool front and tightening pressure gradient will increase winds today to 20-30 mph/gust 40-50 mph. However humidity also increases and remains well into the 20s percent with the gusty winds (humidity much higher for mountain zones). Front will bring brief shot of light showers this afternoon and early evening. On Thursday the two flip-- humidity does drop to just below 15% but winds also not as strong; in the 10-20 mph range.

Thursday through the weekend should remain mostly dry. The warm temperatures of today through Friday will quickly cool down to near normal for the weekend as a cool front moves in from the east Friday night/Saturday morning. Expect a sharp wind shift to the east Saturday morning and breezy winds much of Saturday.

Min RH: Lowlands 20-28% today, decreasing to 9-15% Thursday through Saturday. Mountains 30-45% today, decreasing to 15-25% Thursday through Saturday. Vent rates excellent today, very good- excellent Thursday/Friday and fair-good Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 53 83 56 85 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 81 58 82 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 44 80 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 43 81 47 82 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 59 42 61 / 30 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 79 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 82 55 84 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 43 85 45 85 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 88 51 88 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 76 44 77 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 52 84 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 50 82 52 82 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 52 81 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 37 81 39 82 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 39 83 41 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 47 83 52 83 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 43 81 44 81 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 34 73 41 74 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 69 37 70 / 30 0 0 0 Timberon 31 67 36 69 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 33 74 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 79 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 36 82 40 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 71 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 74 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 78 35 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 32 72 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 74 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 82 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 82 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 80 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 42 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.