textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 421 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025 - Cold front has arrived this morning, dropping temperatures about 8 to 15 degrees Sunday and Monday. Gusty east winds up to 35 mph along west slopes of mountains this morning.

- Dry conditions and near record highs again by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1001 PM MST Sat Dec 13 2025

One last day of record/near-record temps before we revert back to cooler weather for a few days. Again, as has been the case for quite awhile, the eastern Pacific/Desert Southwest upper ridge will mostly remain into mid-week next week. In the short term, the back door cold front continues progressing west. Front shows up weakly on IR imagery and combined with surface obs, extends from about Raton-Vaughn-Carlsbad. This is mostly a wind shift with very little airmass difference. The cold air and developing stratus reside further east with the lead edge from Clayton-Tucumcari eastward. HRRR/GFS/NAM12 all in good timing agreement, bringing the front (wind shift) to the eastern Sacs in the next 1-2 hours; then over the RG Valley by 06-08Z and out to the Arizona border by 15Z. Winds will increase just behind the front, with the strongest corridor of winds south of a line from Silver City-Las Cruces-Timberon from 06Z-18Z. West slopes of terrain in this general area could see gusts up to 35 mph. Some stratus/fog should form along the eastern Sacs overnight as the airmass cools and saturates. Don't expect any drizzle in this area and clouds should burn off/dissipate by early Sunday afternoon. Another thing to watch...gusty winds west of Lordsburg could stir up some playa dust Sunday morning to early afternoon.

Otherwise looks like a quiet forecast period after Sunday. Weak trough currently over SoCal and western Arizona will sweep through, bringing high cloudiness in Sunday and Monday. Temperatures both days will be some 10-15 degrees cooler than today, but still just above normal.

Strong jet enters the NW U.S. Wednesday and Thursday, flattening out the upper ridge into a zonal flow. Thus expect a rapid warmup Tuesday, but especially Wed-Sat, with highs back to near record- levels.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Low stratus is trying to develop along eastern fringes of the area early this morning behind the front, but will not reach the TAF sites before dissipating after sunrise. Otherwise, SCT-BKN250 pass overhead. E-NE winds around 10kts persist this morning, relaxing during the day and tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 421 AM MST Sun Dec 14 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. A backdoor cold front has pushed into the area early this AM, shifting winds E-NE with some gustiness up to 30 mph along west mtn slopes. Winds subside during the day as the pressure gradient loosens. Cooler temps today will result in higher RHs during the day and some low clouds along east slopes of the Sacs early this morning. No precip is forecast from this front today as high clouds pass by. Temperatures rebound to well above normal by midweek (about 15 degrees above) as light winds and mainly clear skies prevail. Fuels have trended drier than normal for mid-Dec due to the dry pattern and will continue to do so this week.

Min RHs range from 25-45% through Mon, 15-25% in FWZ110; then 12-25% by Wed. Vent rates will be poor to fair.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 39 64 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 33 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 34 61 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 31 63 30 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 48 31 48 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 37 62 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 37 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 65 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 65 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 41 62 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 29 61 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 37 66 39 70 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 35 59 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 37 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 36 61 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 25 63 25 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 31 65 30 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 38 63 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 25 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 32 64 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 59 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 29 56 31 57 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 62 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 37 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 25 62 25 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 66 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 70 27 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 19 67 22 67 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 62 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 36 65 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 63 32 69 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 35 65 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 39 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.