textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 213 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight over high terrain and Southwest New Mexico.

- Above average temperatures through the remainder of the work week becoming below average of the weekend and early next week.

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in localized flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A large upper trough will continue spinning away off the coast of California. Meanwhile an upper high is to our southeast. This will focus moisture and chances for storms over AZ and our western portions of the CWA Wednesday. A Marginal Risk is out tomorrow highlighting the Continental Divide and west for strong storms that could produce severe hail and severe wind gusts. The aforementioned trough lifts out over the Lower CO Basin Thursday but this will spell a very active couple days for the area with potential for flooding, and strong storms that could produce hail and severe wind gusts. Abnormally moist conditions on the way Thursday where PWs will reach up to 1.1" to 1.2" which is record breaking, or at least near record breaking, which will add to the flooding threat.

Behind the main aforementioned trough, another low cuts off and gives us a little more energy for Saturdays storms. Continued rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday where severe thunderstorms are possible once again, as well as flooding. By the end of the weekend, this trough finally gets sucked into the main flow allowing some drier and clearing conditions from west to east. Another strong cold front possible Monday into Tuesday with windy conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 AM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Maintaining VFR at all sites. Iso SHRA/TS possible, but low coverage and low confidence of significant impact at terminals precludes mention in TAFs with this issuance. Amendments possible based on radar trends. Outside of convection, winds remain northeasterly and 10kts or less through tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 PM MDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead as min RHs stay above critical thresholds and 20 foot winds stay 5-10 mph each afternoon. Min RH values across the lowlands will be 30-50% each afternoon through Sunday, increasing to 50-70% Monday and Tuesday. Min RHs will be anywhere from 40-80% in the area mountains each day through Tuesday. Continued rain chances each day. Storm coverage will be over the Gila region and far western NM locations tomorrow, some storms may become strong. Thursday and Friday will feature strong thunderstorms that could produce hail, damaging wind gusts, and flash flooding. Storm coverage is areawide Thursday and into Friday. Storms will focus across much of the area except for far western NM over the weekend. Some storms may become strong to severe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 58 85 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 83 61 82 / 0 0 10 20 Alamogordo 59 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 63 46 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 80 60 78 / 0 0 10 50 Silver City 55 76 57 72 / 10 10 40 80 Deming 58 85 61 83 / 0 0 10 40 Lordsburg 60 82 62 79 / 10 20 30 70 West El Paso Metro 66 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 58 86 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 92 65 92 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 90 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 62 86 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 63 86 64 85 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 59 83 61 82 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 59 86 61 84 / 0 0 10 30 Columbus 62 87 65 85 / 0 0 10 30 Orogrande 59 84 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 75 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 74 50 73 / 0 10 0 0 Timberon 48 71 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 50 72 52 69 / 0 20 30 60 Hillsboro 58 79 59 77 / 0 10 20 60 Spaceport 57 81 59 80 / 0 0 10 30 Lake Roberts 50 75 53 70 / 0 30 40 80 Hurley 54 78 56 76 / 10 10 30 70 Cliff 58 83 60 78 / 10 30 60 90 Mule Creek 56 78 57 72 / 20 40 60 100 Faywood 57 78 59 75 / 10 10 20 60 Animas 59 83 61 82 / 10 10 20 50 Hachita 59 83 61 82 / 0 10 10 50 Antelope Wells 59 85 60 83 / 10 10 10 30 Cloverdale 58 80 59 77 / 10 10 20 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.