textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Moisture from tropical remnants of Polo will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Borderland today. Storms will be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash flooding, especially over locations that have already received heavy rain in recent weeks.

- New rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches across much of southern New Mexico, with localized areas receiving 3 inches. A Flood Watch is in effect into Wednesday morning.

- Wind Advisory in effect Tuesday evening focusing over far west Texas and Otero county.

- Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the moisture is pushed eastward. Temperatures remaining cool into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1013 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Pacific trough now over southern Nevada and continues to draw up tropical moisture, partially from Polo, over New Mexico. The trough is also drawing up tropical moisture from further west, but this is mostly over Arizona. 00Z KEPZ sounding shows PW around 1.5 inches, which is well above the daily record and sits around 250% of normal. So between now and late Tue afternoon, the models show our highest PWs and likely our window for heaviest rain and flash flooding. Current radar is showing a bit of slack in the heavy rain, though still raining decent over Dona Ana, Otero, El Paso and Hudspeth Counties. Both hi-res and larger scale models pick the heavy rainfall back up around 09Z-12Z Tuesday and continue into Tuesday evening. This corresponds with the time Polo reaches the Mexican mainland and then approaches our area. The heaviest rain looks to start diminishing by around midnight Tuesday night, as the upper low sits over central Arizona and looks to bring some dry slotting into our area, at least briefly. The other items to watch for Tuesday are strong winds associated with the dying circulation of ex-Polo and severe weather. It looks like the remains will reach El Paso or west Texas late Tuesday afternoon. Will leave Wind Advisory out with respect to area, though I think west Texas zones and southern Otero are most at risk for the winds. Will pare the ending time back to midnight Tuesday night as the remnants quickly exit to the northeast. The advisory could blend into possible severe thunderstorm warnings for the winds.

Wednesday...the tropical moisture is mostly flushed out to our east (PWs drop to around .5 to .7 inches) as the Pacific trough/low moves across central New Mexico. Still expect isolated/scattered showers or a thunderstorm much of the day, but the heavy rain/flood threat should be over.

Thursday through Saturday...Pacific trough now well to our east, but becomes quite positively tilted. Models show a weak upper low cutting off and drifting back southwest over eastern New Mexico/west Texas. Thus a few showers could be possible over the eastern CWA toward Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...the cut off low phases in somewhat with the outer circulation of Rachel, and forcing the upper high to northern New Mexico. Thus some weak southerly flow develops along with some advection of tropical moisture back up toward our area. Both GFS/ECMWF show the moisture up into southern New Mexico Monday and Tuesday, though does not look to be a strong northward push of the moisture at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Scattered to widespread showers this morning, turning more convective this afternoon ahead of Polo's remnants. A few embedded TS possible this morning, favoring KDMN and KTCS. CIGs hovering between MVFR and IFR for much of the period, falling as low as 005. VIS down to 2SM possible in TS later today. Breezy winds expected for KELP during the evening with Polo's circulation passing by. Gusts to 40kts possible at KELP from evening TS or Polo's center around 0z. Winds near 10kts from W-SW linger through the overnight as convection lifts NE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 519 AM MDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected today for the entire area with heavy rain and localized flooding. The cooler temperatures associated with the rain will limit mixing, leading to mostly poor vent rates. Winds will top out around 10 MPH for areas west of the Rio Grande but will become breezy for locations east of the Rio Grande during the afternoon and evening.

Much of the precip and moisture move out Tuesday night, and only isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected on Wednesday with the highest chances for storms across the Gila. Mixing heights will increase for Wednesday, which will lead to good to very good vent categories.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 74 57 77 / 80 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 74 53 73 / 50 20 0 0 Las Cruces 55 71 52 74 / 90 10 0 0 Alamogordo 56 71 53 74 / 100 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 41 51 40 54 / 100 40 30 20 Truth or Consequences 54 71 53 72 / 90 10 0 0 Silver City 50 63 48 70 / 100 60 10 0 Deming 54 72 52 76 / 70 10 0 0 Lordsburg 53 69 53 74 / 90 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 74 57 77 / 80 10 0 0 Dell City 61 76 55 76 / 80 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 82 58 81 / 50 10 0 0 Loma Linda 55 67 51 69 / 80 10 0 0 Fabens 61 78 57 79 / 60 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 72 55 75 / 80 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 72 56 76 / 90 20 0 0 Jornada Range 55 71 53 75 / 90 10 0 0 Hatch 56 74 54 77 / 80 10 0 0 Columbus 57 74 57 78 / 80 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 70 52 72 / 90 20 0 0 Mayhill 48 65 45 64 / 100 20 10 20 Mescalero 46 61 44 64 / 100 50 30 10 Timberon 47 59 42 61 / 100 40 20 30 Winston 46 65 46 67 / 90 30 0 0 Hillsboro 53 71 52 73 / 90 20 0 0 Spaceport 53 71 51 73 / 90 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 50 62 45 71 / 100 70 20 0 Hurley 51 66 48 72 / 90 40 10 0 Cliff 56 69 51 77 / 100 70 10 0 Mule Creek 53 65 47 74 / 90 80 10 0 Faywood 51 66 50 71 / 90 30 0 0 Animas 54 72 53 76 / 80 10 0 0 Hachita 53 71 52 75 / 80 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 73 53 75 / 70 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 67 51 71 / 80 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.