textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Dry weather today with seasonal temperatures for late September.

- Moisture pulled up from tropical remnants of Polo will bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to New Mexico and West Texas Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding, especially over locations that have already received heavy rain in recent weeks.

- Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the tropical moisture is forced east of the area. Temperatures remaining on the cool side into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Short wave ridge has moved east of our area as incoming Pacific trough (just moving onshore of the west coast) approaches the western US. As the southwest flow increases ahead of this trough, tropical moisture from both TS Odalys and Hurricane Polo will stream across the area. At this moment, Odalys is contributing most of the moisture, with high clouds over our area and lower clouds/precip well further west. Moisture ahead of Polo will slowly advect into southern portions of the CWA late this afternoon and evening. Some of the hi-res models (and GFS/NAM12) are showing some precip over SW New Mexico late this afternoon/evening, so did put low POPs in grids for this area.

Monday through Wednesday...the main event starts with heavy rain and flash flood potential. The Pacific trough moves over SoCal with a 90+ kt sub-tropical jet rotating around its base over Arizona and far western New Mexico. This will increase the layered tropical moisture over the CWA, with PWs approaching 1.5 inches over southern New Mexico Monday afternoon. Showers and isolated thunderstorms should develop Monday afternoon, with a few areas of heavy rainfall. The remnants of Polo reach the CWA Tuesday afternoon (latest NAM12/ECMWF are a bit slower than GFS), with PWs still maxing out around 1.5 inches. This is about 240% of normal, while daily PW records at KEPZ are around 1.3 inches. Whatever is left of the Polo remnants lifts over the Texas Panhandle Tuesday night as the Pacific trough nears the Arizona/New Mexico state line. Moisture will be on the wain, with PWs rapidly falling below one inch. By Wednesday afternoon the Pacific trough is over NE New Mexico and approaching the central Plains by late Wednesday night. Rain should taper off to scattered showers Wednesday afternoon as wrap around moisture from the Pacific trough persists.

Thursday into the weekend...high aloft builds over the Desert Southwest for mainly dry weather with temperatures on the cool side. Both GFS/ECMWF show the Pacific trough becoming positively tilted and try to retrograde a circulation back to the southwest. This could drop a few showers over Otero and Hudspeth Counties. GFS moves what will be Rachel over the Baja by the end of the weekend and possibly spreading some rain to the area--ECMWF keeps Rachel well to the west.

***Bottom line for weather/impacts:*** Flood Watch remains in effect from Monday afternoon to early Wednesday morning. Expect areas of heavy rain to develop late Monday afternoon and continue into late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, along with a moderate risk of flash flooding. Confidence is still lower on areal distribution of the rainfall. What we can see from the models is the rainfall oriented in a SW- NE pattern associated with mid/upper level flow. Many of the models are showing the heavier rainfall from about a line from Columbus- Alamogordo northwest, with the heaviest rainfall over Sierra, Luna, Hidalgo and eastern Grant Counties; generally 1-3 inches with a few areas possibly receiving up to 4 inches. To the areas southeast of this line, rainfall of .5 to 2 inches, with local areas (mainly the Sacramento Mtns) seeing 3-4 inches.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions through the period. SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Slight chance of a BKN070CB -TSRA over Hidalgo and Luna Counties between 21Z-03Z this evening. Won't include this chance in the KDMN TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through midweek. Mainly dry today with increasing mid-high clouds. A shower or storm may develop in the NM Bootheel during the afternoon. Light winds today, shifting west-southwest this afternoon over area mtns. Temperatures will be near normal today. Scattered to widespread showers and storms move in Monday afternoon associated with Polo, continuing through Tuesday night with a high risk of flash flooding area- wide. Flood threat will be most pronounced north of the I-10 corridor. Saturated soils from recent rainfall will elevate the flood risk. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are additional hazards. Temperatures fall to below normal for midweek.

Min RHs will be 25-40% today, rising to 60-90% on Tue. Vent rates range from poor to good through Mon, then mostly poor on Tue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 88 65 80 / 0 40 90 90 Sierra Blanca 62 86 63 81 / 0 20 70 70 Las Cruces 63 84 62 75 / 0 50 90 100 Alamogordo 62 84 62 76 / 0 20 90 100 Cloudcroft 49 65 49 57 / 0 20 90 100 Truth or Consequences 62 82 62 72 / 0 60 90 100 Silver City 58 77 56 68 / 0 60 100 100 Deming 63 86 62 76 / 10 60 90 100 Lordsburg 65 85 63 73 / 10 60 100 100 West El Paso Metro 67 88 66 80 / 0 50 90 90 Dell City 61 89 65 83 / 0 20 70 80 Fort Hancock 68 93 69 88 / 0 30 80 80 Loma Linda 63 81 61 74 / 0 20 80 90 Fabens 66 91 66 84 / 0 30 80 80 Santa Teresa 64 86 64 78 / 0 50 80 90 White Sands HQ 67 86 64 78 / 0 40 90 100 Jornada Range 61 84 63 75 / 0 50 90 100 Hatch 63 86 64 77 / 0 50 90 100 Columbus 65 88 64 79 / 20 50 80 100 Orogrande 58 84 62 76 / 0 20 90 100 Mayhill 54 77 54 70 / 0 20 80 100 Mescalero 53 76 53 67 / 0 20 90 100 Timberon 53 72 52 64 / 0 20 90 100 Winston 56 74 55 66 / 0 70 90 100 Hillsboro 65 82 61 73 / 0 70 100 100 Spaceport 59 83 61 73 / 0 60 90 100 Lake Roberts 49 76 52 66 / 0 70 100 100 Hurley 60 80 58 71 / 0 70 100 100 Cliff 49 84 53 71 / 0 60 100 100 Mule Creek 46 80 52 69 / 0 60 100 100 Faywood 63 80 60 70 / 0 70 90 100 Animas 65 86 64 75 / 20 70 100 100 Hachita 64 86 62 75 / 20 60 90 100 Antelope Wells 64 85 63 76 / 20 60 90 100 Cloverdale 63 81 60 71 / 20 70 90 100

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.