textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Dry today, then a chance of rain showers Saturday through early Monday. Best chance for scattered rain showers will be Sunday and Monday along the International Border. - Temperatures will run well above normal over the weekend and for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Upper low just off the SoCal coast pulling some higher level moisture up over our area with the help of a modest sub-tropical jet. Not much in the way of dynamics, but some showers possible by mid-day Saturday as moisture plume slowly wettens from top down. Models continue to show the upper low traveling eastward well south of our area Sunday and Monday, so showers will be hit or miss both days. Best chance both days continues to be over the zones adjacent to the Intl Border. Snow levels look to stay above 9000 ft for the entire event.

Dry, tranquil weather Tuesday through Thursday as southwest flow aloft gradually increases ahead of the next Pacific trough. Temperatures continue warm, some 10-13 degrees above normal. The next trough does finally move in to near the northern Baja Thursday night. GFS and ECMWF still differing significantly, with the GFS faster and more progressive, bringing trough across New Mexico Friday. ECMWF slower with more of a closed low initially over the Mexican Sonoran Desert Friday and then across New Mexico Saturday. Thus GFS precip window is from Friday morning through Friday night and ECMWF window Friday afternoon through mid-day Saturday. For now broader brush sweep looks best as this is at the very end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions through the period. SKC-SCT250 becoming SCT150 BKN-OVC250 after 03Z. Surface winds variable, mainly southeast 7-10 knots, becoming variable AOB 7 knots after 02Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Not much in the way of impacts for fire weather this weekend and next week. Chance of showers does move in mid-day Saturday through Monday. Snow levels remain above 9000 ft for this period. Dry again mid-week, then another chance of showers by next Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through much of next week, and no significant winds are expected until next Friday/Saturday with next weekend's showers.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Monday, then 18-25% Tuesday/Wednesday. Mountains 30-45% through Monday, then 25-35% Tuesday/Wednesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Monday, then fair-good Tuesday/Wednesday as mixing heights increase some.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 69 44 71 / 0 30 10 20 Sierra Blanca 42 67 43 68 / 0 20 20 20 Las Cruces 42 65 38 67 / 0 30 10 10 Alamogordo 40 66 38 68 / 0 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 34 48 32 49 / 0 30 20 10 Truth or Consequences 42 64 40 67 / 0 40 10 10 Silver City 40 60 38 64 / 0 30 10 20 Deming 42 68 39 69 / 10 30 10 20 Lordsburg 42 66 39 68 / 10 30 10 20 West El Paso Metro 49 67 46 70 / 0 30 10 20 Dell City 38 68 42 70 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 45 73 45 74 / 0 20 20 20 Loma Linda 45 63 43 65 / 0 30 20 10 Fabens 45 70 44 72 / 0 30 20 20 Santa Teresa 44 65 41 69 / 0 30 10 20 White Sands HQ 46 67 44 69 / 0 30 10 10 Jornada Range 40 65 37 69 / 0 30 10 10 Hatch 40 68 38 71 / 0 30 10 10 Columbus 45 67 43 69 / 10 20 10 20 Orogrande 41 65 40 68 / 0 30 10 10 Mayhill 37 62 35 62 / 0 20 10 10 Mescalero 35 60 33 61 / 0 40 20 10 Timberon 39 57 37 58 / 0 20 10 10 Winston 33 58 30 61 / 0 40 10 10 Hillsboro 42 63 40 66 / 0 50 10 20 Spaceport 39 64 35 68 / 0 30 10 10 Lake Roberts 35 58 34 63 / 0 40 10 20 Hurley 39 63 36 66 / 10 30 10 20 Cliff 34 67 37 70 / 10 40 10 20 Mule Creek 36 65 37 67 / 10 30 10 20 Faywood 43 62 41 65 / 0 40 10 20 Animas 43 68 41 69 / 10 30 20 20 Hachita 42 65 38 68 / 10 10 10 20 Antelope Wells 43 66 41 68 / 10 20 10 30 Cloverdale 46 64 44 64 / 10 40 20 40

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.