textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 5:25 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Temperatures remain cool (5-8 degrees below normal) through Monday; warming trend back to above normal by mid-week.

- Mostly dry conditions through much of next week, before a slight chance of showers returns next weekend.

- Breezy winds on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1011 PM MDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Extremely positively tilted trough extends from eastern Great Lakes back across the southern Plains to eastern New Mexico. Closed off low in this trough remains over SE New Mexico. Deeper layered moisture remains well to our east ahead of the trough. Over our area shallow moisture remains in place behind the back door front of yesterday. Extensive CU and SC formed with this moisture with a few stray light showers. Stratus and fog continue with the upslope conditions over the eastern Sacs and some lower clouds continue in other areas east of the Organ/Franklin Mtns. All these clouds should gradually dissipated through Saturday mid-day, though models show continued upslope and stratus/fog possible over the eastern Sacs into Sunday. Otherwise partly/mostly sunny Saturday and Sunday, though still cool with temperatures around 5-8 degrees below normal.

Monday through Thursday...nice Fall weather continues as the trough slinks southward and high pressure builds in over the Desert Southwest. Temperatures will gradually warm up with highs back to normal by Wednesday. A Pacific trough does ride over the ridge and down over New Mexico Wednesday afternoon. This trough will have very little moisture with it, but could kick off a few mountain showers Wednesday. The trough drops south of the area Thursday.

Friday into the weekend...GFS/ECMWF begin wild divergence in solutions after Thursday. GFS drops the aforementioned trough down south of the Big Bend, closing it off into a low and lifting it back up to west Texas by Sunday with a batch of sub-tropical moisture and a chance of rain. ECMWF takes that same closed low eastward allowing drier southwest flow to develop over our area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

ELP and LRU may experience MVFR conditions through 14 or 15z with a developing cloud deck around 030 or 040, but for the rest of the period VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. Winds will be light today AOB 10 knots generally from the east (070-090).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

No fire weather issues are forecast. We begin a warming trend today with afternoon RH values steadily declining through the week ahead. For today, min RH values will be close to 40% in the lowlands, decreasing the mid 20s by the middle of the week. Winds will be light today, which will lead to poor venting in eastern areas with good venting toward the AZ border. Winds will increase for Sunday, but min RH values will be in the 30s and 40s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 73 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 75 55 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 58 39 59 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 54 74 54 72 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 71 53 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 56 75 58 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 79 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 78 57 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 72 55 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 78 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 79 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 78 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 57 78 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 65 46 68 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 44 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 42 64 45 64 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 45 68 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 73 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 75 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 72 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 73 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 80 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 44 77 42 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 71 55 70 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 76 58 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 74 57 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 75 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 71 56 72 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.