textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 425 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

- Dry conditions this week ahead with no rain chances through Tuesday. - Record warm temperatures today through much of next week with high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.

- Increasing clouds Tuesday night and Wednesday. Slight chance of showers Gila/Black Range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 AM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

Persistent dry pattern continuing for much of the forecast period. Currently a strong jet entering the NW Pacific coast is flattening our upper ridge some, resulting in moderate zonal flow. In the short term, a weak short wave over east-central New Mexico is bringing some higher clouds through the area. No other significant weather other than occasional patches of high clouds are expected through Monday. High temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above normal, with many sites at or above record daily high temps.

A pattern change finally occurs later Monday on into the remainder of Christmas week. Eastern Pacific long wave trough is eventually able to dig far enough south to bring a southwest flow aloft over our area. This is able to tap into some sub-tropical moisture (most likely higher level), and by Wednesday morning precip chances increase some, mainly for the Gila/Black Range and other areas west of the Cont Divide. Most of the moisture/precip is done by late Wednesday night. With some luck, areas east of the Cont divide could see a brief period of light showers Wednesday evening. This is a warm pattern so only the highest few mountain peaks could see any snow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 425 PM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

VFR conditions to prevail with typical aftn breezes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1044 AM MST Thu Dec 18 2025

No major fire concerns for this forecast period. Remaining dry and very warm through Monday, with high temps around 15-20 degrees above normal. Min humidities (lowlands) a couple percent either side of the critical 15%, so light fuels in these areas could continue to dry out. Some increasing clouds and humidity Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing southwest flow aloft. Perhaps even a few light showers, mainly west of the Cont Divide, Tuesday night and Wednesday. A breezy Saturday will briefly improve vent rates.

Min RH: Lowlands 13-20% through Tuesday, increasing to 15-25% Wed/Thu. Mountains 15-25% through Tuesday, increasing to 20-35% Wed/Thu. Vent rates poor-fair through Tuesday, except fair-good Saturday with the afternoon breezes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 44 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 72 42 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 39 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 36 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 54 38 55 35 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 71 40 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 69 43 67 42 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 75 39 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 38 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 71 45 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 73 37 77 36 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 77 42 79 42 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 66 45 69 44 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 75 41 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 48 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 29 74 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 75 33 78 35 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 75 43 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 30 72 31 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 69 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 65 39 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 62 36 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 72 39 72 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 75 47 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 70 27 73 29 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 70 33 68 30 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 72 39 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 74 27 73 27 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 70 23 69 24 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 72 44 71 43 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 75 39 74 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 75 38 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 78 43 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 70 44 69 44 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.