textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 946 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

- Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend, peaking on Wednesday with lowland highs in the upper 90s or even 100 degrees in a few spots.

- There will be a slight chance for dry lightning in the Gila Wilderness on Wednesday afternoon.

- Breezy and very dry conditions from Thursday onward, creating elevated fire weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper level high pressure is slowly making it way across New Mexico tonight and into Wednesday. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures well above average. A few locations in the lowlands will hit the triple digit mark. El Paso will have a chance (20 to 30%) of hitting the triple digit make as well. Late in the day the upper level ridge will be moving off to the east and a short wave trough will move across New Mexico. This system may have just enough mid level moisture to get some thunderstorms going, but with the dry lower levels, it would most likely be dry thunderstorms. The best chances for dry thunderstorms will be in the Gila Wilderness.

For Thursday, yet another upper level short wave trough will approach the region, but this system will also have a decent lee side surface trough in southeast Colorado. Both of those will give us a breezy to windy conditions with elevated fire weather conditions. High temperatures on Thursday will run 5 to 8 degrees above average. For Friday and Saturday, we will be dry with afternoon high temperatures continuing to run 5 to 8 degrees above average. Both afternoons will have breezy winds.

For Sunday we will still be dry and our high temperatures will be running 3 to 5 degrees above average. Another upper level trough will approach the Four Corners region Sunday afternoon. The Sunday trough will be stronger than the other troughs, so we will see windy conditions Sunday afternoon and with the warm temperatures, blowing dust may also be a problem. For the start of next week, we will still be dry, with less winds and high temperatures running near seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026

We will see unlimited ceilings tonight with light and variable winds. On Wednesday we will see high clouds on the increase which will give us off and on high ceilings in the afternoon of SCT- BKN250. The winds will start off light in the morning, but then southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph accompanied by some low end wind gusts will occur in the afternoon. The wind gusts will drop off around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1023 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low-moderate through the weekend. Very light winds and dry conditions this afternoon with cumulus development over area mtns, producing a sprinkle or two. Slightly better rain chances on Wed as a shortwave trough comes across and brings mid-level moisture. Isolated virga showers are expected Wed afternoon over the high terrain with a dry lightning strike or two in FWZ110. Rain is unlikely to reach the surface due to very dry air below the cloud layer. Gusty downdraft winds to 40 mph can be seen over area mtns into the evening. Otherwise, modestly breezy S-SW winds in the afternoon.

Drying out from Thu onward with breezy afternoons, creating elevated-near critical fire wx conditions. Most afternoons will see W-SW winds of 10-15 mph at 20 feet with Thu being slightly breezier. The dry, warm, and breezy conditions will worsen the state of fuels with ERCs heading towards the 90th percentiles this weekend. Red Flag conditions are not expected to be met. Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

Min RHs range from 7-18% through Thu, then 4-12%. Vent rates will be fair to very good today, then mostly excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 69 99 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 66 95 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 73 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 63 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 87 57 83 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 60 97 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 92 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 67 97 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 96 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 66 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 64 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 95 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 72 96 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 60 94 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 61 97 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 97 67 94 / 0 0 10 0 Orogrande 63 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 85 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 53 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 53 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 51 85 51 83 / 0 20 0 0 Hillsboro 62 92 62 89 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 58 94 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 54 87 52 83 / 0 20 0 0 Hurley 58 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 55 92 52 89 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 55 88 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 58 90 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 93 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 61 92 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 86 60 84 / 10 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.