textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms this afternoon across the Gila region and Hudspeth County.

- Mostly dry, breezy, with seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cold blast of air with windy to very windy conditions looks increasingly likely late Thursday and early Friday morning. Well below normal temperatures for Friday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Upper cutoff low situated over the PacNW today will jog south today and tomorrow making it to northern AZ by late Tuesday, then crosses the Four Corners and starts to lift out by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico today and then re-centers itself over the southeastern US by mid-week. The rest of today through Wednesday will feature quiet conditions with near seasonable to warmer than average temperatures, some breeziness Tuesday but lighter breezes on Wednesday, and mostly dry conditions both days. Slight chances of storms Wednesday in southern Hudspeth county.

Still expecting a potent cold front to push in from the Great Plains late Thursday and into Friday. Winds may start shifting northerly in the afternoon Thursday becoming breezy but after sunset is when the front really pushes through. Expect a brisk Thursday night, overnight, and through the day Friday. Windy to very windy conditions expected with northeast to easterly winds at 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph possible. Windiest conditions will be over ridge tops and west facing slopes like the Hueco Tanks, west El Paso, etc. A Wind Advisory will be needed with highest confidence being counties along the Int'l Border where the strongest belt of winds are expected, as well as west facing slopes in El Paso and the Hueco Tanks. Winds somewhat relax through the day Friday, but still will be noticeably breezy. One location to watch out for Friday will be the Lordsburg Playa causing dust from the strong winds. Models are starting to agree that the area will see some rain along with this cold front. Cloudcroft could potentially see some flurries or a quick dusting of snow Friday morning. Similar high temperatures Saturday as what we'll see Friday (lowlands: low to mid 60s, mtns: 40s and low 50s). Still going to be windy late Friday and into Saturday morning. Winds relax through the afternoon but will stay breezy out west nearing the AZ border. This may be another day to watch for blowing dust on the Lordsburg Playa.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

We are seeing much less active day today than yesterday. We could still see a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm develop over Hudspeth County this evening, but storm motions will be to the northeast so any storms that do form will move away from our TAF sites. We have some low end gusty winds this afternoon, but those should drop off around sunset. On Tuesday we will see a return of those low end gusty winds for several hours in the afternoon. Our ceilings will be unlimited tonight and through the day on Tuesday.

Just a heads up. Confidence is increasing that we will see a strong cold front push through the region Thursday night. High temperatures drop 15 to 20 degrees from Thursday to Friday, but the more impactful weather will be the winds Thursday night into Friday. Winds late Thursday night will come around to the east and be strong at 09030G40KT. The winds will slowly come down during the day on Friday, but expect gusty winds most of the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception of southern Hudspeth both afternoons. A strong backdoor cold front is expected to push in from the Great Plains late Thursday and early Friday morning which will bring much cooler temperatures, rain showers, and windy easterly conditions. Strongest winds will be for locations along the Int'l Border and especially windy for west facing slopes. Expecting chances for rain across the area Thursday into Friday with the cold front.

Min RHs in the lowlands will be 20-30% and 40-50% in the area mountains Tuesday through Thursday. 20 foot winds will be slightly breezy Tuesday and Wednesday with speeds anywhere from 5-15 mph sustained. 20 ft winds Thursday will be out of the north during the afternoon with some breeziness but after sunset that night, expect very windy conditions (20 ft winds 15-30 mph sustained). Breezy conditions continue into Friday afternoon with speeds 20-30 mph. Lingering breeziness early Saturday mostly for locations close by the AZ border but then winds relax in the afternoon continuing into Sunday.

Temperatures stay near normal to slightly above average Tuesday and Wednesday but dips to 10-15 degrees below average Friday and Saturday post-cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 85 60 83 / 20 0 20 0 Las Cruces 56 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 60 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 72 48 69 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 55 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 79 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 87 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 92 64 91 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 58 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 71 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 69 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 69 42 68 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 50 75 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 54 76 52 74 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 50 71 48 69 / 10 10 0 10 Faywood 52 75 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 81 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 75 50 74 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.