textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Dry conditions this week ahead with no rain chances through Tuesday. - Near-record to record warmth through much of early portion of the forecast, with highs 15-20 degrees above normal.

- Increasing clouds midweek with slight chance of showers Gila/Black Range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Zonal flow continues over the region for the next few days before a transition to a more SSW. This zonal flow will keep temperatures very warm for late Dec with more records likely to fall over the coming days. Highs over the lowlands will be in the 70s. NBM temps looked a little low in some areas and did warm a couple degrees with records being threatened. Overnight lows will continue to fall off nicely into the 30s and 40s.

The upper flow starts to change going into Tue with the SSW developing and tapping some subtropical moisture. Most of this moisture will be mid and high based but out west models agree there could be enough lower level moisture to squeeze out some light rain showers, mainly over the Gila region going into Tue night and Wed. Didn't go anything above 30 PoPs in the Gila and 10-20 near the AZ border. Cloud cover from this moisture plume will help to lower high temps and raise overnight lows a little bit, so less of a chance for records going into Wed.

A quick change to a little more of a WSW flow for Thu/Fri which will allow temps to warm back up more. Could see some record highs on Christmas Day which for ELP is 75.

Going into next weekend, there is some timing differences among the models and ensembles as to how quick a fairly strong upper low moves onshore and brings in some precip chances to the region. The GFS is slower moving things eastward with an even slower solution on the 12Z run than 06Z, but it's ensemble mean continues to indicate a quicker solution similar to the EC. The NBM seems to be closer to the EC solution and brings in some increasing clouds and precip chances going into Sat. Left things with the NBM PoPs here with such a wide range of solutions, but temps will start to at least start a downward trend by this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

P6SM SKC-SCT250 through the period. West to southwest winds will be a bit gusty this afternoon up to 25KTS at southern terminals, but gusts will fall off after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 957 AM MST Sat Dec 20 2025

Warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday with near record highs and min RH's falling into the teens daily. Winds will be strongest this afternoon but the remainder of the period looks to have winds under 15 mph. An increase in clouds and low level moisture moves in for Wednesday which will raise RH's into the 20s and 30s along with a slight chance for precipitation out west. The low level moisture will stick around through the end of next week which will keep RH's up above 20%. Vent rates will be poor to fair.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 47 76 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 42 73 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 39 73 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 54 40 56 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 42 73 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 38 75 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 74 33 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 36 76 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 41 78 39 79 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 43 77 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 41 74 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 46 75 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 35 74 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 38 77 36 77 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 72 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 70 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 35 67 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 29 61 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 68 30 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 44 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 72 36 72 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 21 70 21 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 70 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 26 73 25 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 23 72 23 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 71 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 37 76 35 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 36 76 34 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 75 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 44 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.