textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 940 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

- Some breezy east winds Thursday morning and on Sunday behind weak fronts.

- Mainly dry into next week as temperatures climb into the 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

A weak backdoor front currently in E NM arrives in the morning, bringing some gusty E-NE winds to the region. West slopes could see gusts to 30 mph Thu AM, subsiding during the day as the near-sfc winds mix out. A meager upper low progresses eastward across northern Mexico Thu/Fri with not much impact for us. Scattered CU develop over the Gila Region and along the Int'l border late in the day, otherwise we stay dry for Thu. Clouds linger and rotate around the low through Fri as it pushes into the Big Bend with a few showers possible for Hudspeth Co. Due to slightly unstable air and cooler air aloft, isolated lightning strikes and gusty outflows can be seen.

Modest NW flow aloft takes over on the front side of an upper ridge this weekend. Another backdoor front arrives for Sun with breezy E winds being the only impact as temps cool slightly out east. The upper ridge translates overhead Mon-Wed, resulting in continued warm temps and lighter winds. However, a broad area of low pressure meanders over NW Mexico at the same time, providing forcing for some terrain-based convection each afternoon, mainly over the Sierra Madres. We'll see if enough moisture and lift reach southern NM to allow for isolated convection in area mtns during the workweek, but chances are slim. Most areas are expected to stay dry into midweek with temperatures a few degrees above normal by the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 940 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Other than some gusty winds to 20-25kts from NE behind a weak front this morning, winds will be AOB 8kts from E-NE. Mainly SKC expected into Thu afternoon before SCT CU develop W of KTCS and KDMN, and south of Int'l border by the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1104 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions return to the area as dry air moves in across the area. In the short term, recent rains over the past several days will keep ERC values below 75th percentile. However, with the return of drier air, warmer temperatures, and daily afternoon breezes, ERC values will respond, increasing back above 80th percentile by the end of the week and into next week.

Weather-wise, as mentioned above, elevated fire weather conditions will resume...mainly due to sub-critical RH values. RH values will continue trending down, with temperatures increasing back to and eventually above the seasonal average by this week. In terms of winds, winds will remain light to low-end breezy through the period with no sign of any major wind events in the next seven days. The only thing to note for winds, is the progged backdoor cold front will move through during the Sunday timeframe, with winds turning back to the east/northeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 53 83 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 77 49 80 / 0 0 20 30 Las Cruces 47 79 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 46 78 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 58 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 78 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 73 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 46 82 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 43 79 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 82 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 46 79 49 85 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 52 86 55 88 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 49 75 52 79 / 0 0 10 0 Fabens 51 85 55 88 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 48 81 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 81 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 79 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 47 82 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 83 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 78 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 35 71 41 75 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 36 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 36 66 39 71 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 36 71 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 77 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 45 78 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 75 40 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 76 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 41 81 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 76 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 43 75 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 80 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 44 79 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 46 80 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 75 49 80 / 0 0 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.