textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Low rain chances through Wednesday, favoring western areas.

- Better areawide rain chances Thursday and Friday, with isolated strong storms and flooding.

- Temperatures back above normal, with Tuesday through Thursday being the warmest stretch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1019 PM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

WV imagery showing mid-level (500mb) low over far SW Arizona and continuing to slowly drift northeast. Deeper layered moisture remains north and southeast of the CWA, with less layered moisture over the CWA. That said, KEPZ sounding shows most moisture sitting between 700mb and 500mb, while dewpoints are back into the lower 40s most places. So some light showers continue across southern portions of our forecast area this evening. Modest instability down over northern Mexico has allowed a few thunderstorms to develop in that area. As they drift northeast toward our southern CWA, they appear to weaken to just a few showers.

Monday and Tuesday...sub-tropical jet increases in strength and approaches New Mexico from the southwest. Models showing one leading jetlet from the main jet moving over southern New Mexico through Tuesday. Also the main trough from the Arizona low nears the AZ/NM state line later Monday as the parent low lifts out over the Four Corners. This added large scale lift will combine with PWs mostly unchanged from today, and dewpoints increasing to mid to upper 40s, to aid in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms both days. Coverage may lessen some on Tuesday with slight drying aloft and the upper trough passage.

Wednesday and Thursday...next large Pacific low approaches SoCal Wednesday night and 90+ kt sub-tropical jet moves over western New Mexico by Thursday. This will draw sub-tropical moisture over central Mexico northward to the area, perhaps including some moisture from Trudy. Max PWs occur from Wednesday night through Thursday night, approaching 1.2 inches, which is well over 200% of normal. Thus expect good shower/thunderstorm coverage to develop Wednesday afternoon. It could very well last much of the overnight hours and continue much of Thursday. MUCAPES of 300-600 J/kg along with decent veering profile, show decent potential for some strong storms. Main threat though could be local heavy rainfall and flooding.

Friday through Sunday...Friday looks to begin transition down as the main upper trough lifts across the area. Areas from the RG Valley east could still see decent coverage of showers/storms, but should taper off to the west. From there the GFS/ECMWF continue to diverge significantly in solutions. The GFS continues to break off secondary low over the northern Baja Saturday and Sunday, keeping sub-tropical moisture and widespread showers again by Sunday. The ECMWF is much more progressive, with little or no secondary low development. Thus, area should remain dry, though ECMWF does begin moving moisture back in after this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Scattered SHRA continue from around KDMN NE-ward to begin period, pushing towards KLRU. More showers may develop near KDMN and KTCS this morning before afternoon convection. Radar trends will be monitored for possible amendments this morning. TSRA push eastward during the evening, with a low chance of impacting all terminals. Gusts to 30kts and brief downpours are possible. Otherwise, winds AOB 7kts with CIGs around 10kft.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 540 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the week. Continued rain chances today, favoring western areas through the evening. Gusty and erratic winds are possible with localized flash flooding in the Gila. Prevailing winds will be light, favoring a southerly direction this afternoon. Low-medium rain chances favor western areas into midweek, then increasing area-wide Thursday into Friday. Some strong winds are possible on Wed/Thu with convection. The flooding risk rises for Thursday, especially in the Gila. Temperatures warm to above normal through midweek as light S-SE winds persist.

Min RHs range from 35-55% through Tue. Vent rates will be poor to fair today, then fair to very good as mixing heights increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 59 85 63 87 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 82 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 79 58 83 / 30 10 0 0 Alamogordo 55 80 58 83 / 20 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 63 45 63 / 20 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 54 78 57 80 / 60 20 10 10 Silver City 50 73 54 75 / 70 20 30 30 Deming 54 81 58 84 / 40 10 10 10 Lordsburg 54 79 59 81 / 50 10 10 20 West El Paso Metro 62 84 66 86 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 56 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 78 57 81 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 60 88 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 82 62 85 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 82 62 85 / 30 10 10 0 Jornada Range 54 80 58 83 / 30 10 10 0 Hatch 55 82 59 85 / 40 10 10 10 Columbus 58 83 63 86 / 30 0 0 10 Orogrande 55 80 58 83 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 75 49 75 / 20 20 0 0 Mescalero 46 74 48 74 / 40 20 0 10 Timberon 45 71 47 71 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 46 71 49 72 / 60 30 10 40 Hillsboro 54 77 57 79 / 60 20 10 20 Spaceport 54 78 57 81 / 50 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 42 74 46 74 / 70 40 40 40 Hurley 50 76 54 77 / 60 20 20 20 Cliff 45 81 48 82 / 70 20 50 50 Mule Creek 42 76 45 77 / 60 30 50 70 Faywood 52 75 56 77 / 50 20 20 20 Animas 54 81 58 83 / 50 10 0 20 Hachita 53 80 58 82 / 50 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 55 82 59 84 / 50 10 0 20 Cloverdale 54 78 58 80 / 50 10 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.