textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1024 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

- Cool temperatures will linger on Tuesday, followed by a rapid warm up as we head into the New Year.

- Scattered rain showers will move into Southwestern New Mexico Wednesday Night, which is New Year's Eve. Precip will mostly dry out as it approaches the Rio Grande.

- Breezy west winds will follow this system, and precip over Arizona will tease the New Mexico border through late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1024 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

Low clouds have developed over a good portion of the Tularosa Basin, and will try to expand southward on light northerly low level winds overnight. HRRR tries to bring in some lower clouds into east El Paso, but it'll be a hard fight. Either way, expect some areas of fog along the west slopes of the Sacramento Mountains, and additional clouds will likely cap the Organ Mountains towards dawn, with fog possible on San Augustin pass early Tuesday morning.

Temperatures will stay stuck in the mid-50s across the lowlands, which actually is only a degree or two below normal. But, as a sharp ridge axis shifts just east of the area, we'll see a rapid warm-up into the mid-60s Wednesday (NYE), and around 70 to start 2026. Despite the brief cool-down, we're still projected to set the warmest December on record in El Paso, both for average daily highs and average mean temperatures.

As troughing develops off the west coast again, a leading shortwave trough will top the ridge late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing light rain showers into the Gila Region and Southwest New Mexico on New Year's Eve. As the ridge breaks down, weakening impulses will keep scattered showers over Arizona, and these will occasionally tease far SW New Mexico through Friday morning.

Otherwise, breezy west winds will be noticeable on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures look to hover around 70 in the lowlands through early next week, a sold 10 to 12 degrees above normal.

PREV UPDATE

Issued at 543 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

Just a few light rain/snow showers remains across central Otero County, focused on Timberon, where temperatures are marginal for wet snow. Don't expect much more than a dusting going forward, so we went ahead and put the Winter Weather headlines out of the misery.

MRMS precip estimates, and interpolation across the beam blocked higher terrain, show the main band of precip set up from the north side of Las Cruces, right over San Augustin Pass, and into the far southern Sacramento Mountains just south of Timberon and across to Pinon. A secondary area of steadier precip stayed north of the TX/NM border over the very sparsely populated Otero Mesa. It also seems the warm nose aloft nudged further north than expected, leading to marginal temperatures and lower snow ratios around Sunspot and areas north of Timberon. The highest snowfall likely occurred somewhere in the higher terrain above 7500 feet northeast of Timberon, perhaps in the higher portions of Agua Chiquita Canyon. Had the precip band been just 15 to 20 miles further north, then areas south of Cloudcroft and near Sunspot would've done much better. MRMS estimates suggest liquid QPF was close to 1 inch where the precip encountered the western slopes of the Sacramentos. Pretty much all the unofficial gauges in that area are unheated tipping buckets, so we'll have to wait for melting to occur to get any sense of ground truth.

Expect some low stratus and patchy fog to develop in the areas that received precip. San Augustin Pass will likely get socked in again tonight, and much of the northern Tularosa Basin should see a low stratus layer develop, with fog where it intersects with the higher terrain. I'm a little concerned about fog potential in northern Dona Ana County if we can get rid of the mid and high clouds. Will monitor closely.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1024 PM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

Low clouds over the Tularosa Basin will drift about overnight. The last few runs of the HRRR have tried to bring lower ceilings south into parts of northeast El Paso, very close to ELP towards dawn, riding very light northerly flow. It'll be hard fought battle, and kept ceilings out of the TAF for now. Clouds may still top the Franklin Mountain peaks around dawn.

With surface dewpoint depressions hovering around 9 degrees, the risk of fog or stratus at LRU is reduced, even if they manage to get a light upslope flow along the west mesa.

Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Dec 29 2025

Low fire danger today due to cooler temperatures and ongoing snow showers over Lincoln National Forest. Areas of freezing fog possible tonight across the Sacramento Mountains. East winds behind a backdoor cold front today, with poor ventilation.

Dry weather returns Tuesday/Wednesday as temperatures quickly rebound back to above normal. Min RH 40-50%. Winds shifting back to the west by Wednesday afternoon 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain showers over Gila National Forest Thursday morning. Winds becoming breezy out of the west Thursday/Friday. Next weekend will be dry and warm for all local fire zones.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 34 56 33 64 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 31 54 34 63 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 30 52 28 61 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 28 54 24 61 / 30 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 43 30 48 / 30 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 30 54 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 28 55 34 63 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 32 57 31 65 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 36 56 30 64 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 36 55 34 62 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 25 52 23 60 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 32 59 32 68 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 29 51 32 58 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 32 57 28 65 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 32 54 31 62 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 34 54 33 63 / 30 0 0 0 Jornada Range 28 54 22 61 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 29 57 22 65 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 32 56 31 63 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 30 52 31 60 / 30 0 0 0 Mayhill 19 52 29 64 / 30 0 0 0 Mescalero 22 52 27 59 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 19 47 25 57 / 40 0 0 0 Winston 18 52 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 27 55 34 63 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 25 55 27 61 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 19 58 22 63 / 20 0 0 0 Hurley 27 55 31 63 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 22 62 24 67 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 20 60 26 64 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 30 54 34 62 / 20 0 0 0 Animas 34 57 32 66 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 31 55 32 64 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 30 55 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 34 53 35 63 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.