textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- An upper level disturbance and cool front will bring breezy to windy conditions this afternoon, along with scattered showers. Gusts 35 to 45 mph will be common, with stronger gusts around 50 mph in the Sacramento Mountains.

- Higher humidity, especially in the higher terrain will limit fire weather concerns.

- Warm temperatures through Friday before a cold front pushes in this weekend, ushering in seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures for this weekend and the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A well-timed upper trough for wind swings through the Four Corners today, inducing a 995 mb low in southeast CO. It's not a very potent trough and the low isn't in the best position for strong boundary layer winds, but a breezy to low-end windy day is expected, especially over the mtns and east slopes. Winds shift from SW to W as the Pacific front sweeps across. 700mb flow of 30- 35kts are forecast with higher speeds over area mtns, warranting a Wind Advisory for the Sacs until 7pm. Winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-45 are forecast in the afternoon for the lowlands. Some BLDU can be seen during the afternoon, but the more westerly direction and cloud cover should limit impacts. VIS could fall to Dust Advisory criteria with some products being issued along the I-10 corridor. Winds settle down Wed night as the system ejects into the Central Plains.

The Pacific front will bring a quick shot at rain mainly in the mtns through the afternoon, progressing from NW- SE. Any rainfall will be very light outside of the Sacs, which is modeled to see around 0.25". Gusty downdrafts can be seen from the band of rain/virga showers, which may help loft dust in the lowlands.

Zonal flow returns for Thursday with typical afternoon breeziness (gusts up to 30 mph) and fair skies. The next system will pass well to the north on Fri, too far to give us any strong winds. That same disturbance brings a backdoor cold front Fri night, flipping our winds northerly then easterly. As the sfc high drifts eastward early next week, SE flow takes over with increasing moisture along the more diffuse front. We'll see if enough moisture is available for any rain chances to return late in the forecast period (Sun- Tue). Models are showing consistency since yesterday in dew points reaching the 40s and low rain chances, favoring Sunday. GEFS is more bullish on moisture creeping in than the Euro ensemble.

Temps warm above normal Thu/Fri after a seasonable day today. Cooler for the weekend behind the backdoor front to near or just below average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Breezy winds this afternoon ahead of a Pacific front, shifting to W later in the day. Gusts to 35-40kts are forecast with some BLDU possible for KELP, KDMN, KLRU. VIS down to 2 SM can be seen for those terminals into the evening before winds subside. KDMN has already seen VIS to 3 SM late this morning. KELP is most likely to see BLDU 21-1z. Low chance of -SHRA this afternoon with the front, which may produce even stronger gusts for about an hour and loft dust. Skies clear out tonight behind the front with winds near 10kts. Occasional gusts linger for KELP overnight due to downslope flow, but should be below AWW criteria.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1055 AM MDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low-moderate for the rest of the workweek. A storm system passes to the north today, bringing a low chance of rain this afternoon, mainly for area mtns. Rainfall will be light; around 0.25" for the Sacs, <0.05" elsewhere. Winds become breezy to low-end windy this afternoon, shifting SW to W behind the Pacific front. The rain chances and added moisture from the system will limit fire wx concerns this afternoon. Min RHs will be above critical thresholds today. For Thu, drier conditions are forecast, but winds return to modestly breezy levels, resulting in elevated fire wx. Critical fire danger is not expected through Fri with continued breeziness. A cold front shifts winds E for Sat before moisture levels increase early next week with low rain chances Sun-Tue. Temperatures cool to near normal today, warming a few degrees for Thu/Fri.

Min RHs range from 20-30% today in lowlands, 30-50% mtns; then 8-20% through Fri. Ventilation will be very good to excellent through Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 54 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 49 79 52 80 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 45 79 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 43 79 47 81 / 20 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 58 39 58 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 41 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 45 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 78 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 81 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 46 83 48 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 86 54 89 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 48 75 53 77 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 51 84 54 85 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 81 50 83 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 52 81 56 82 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 42 80 45 83 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 43 83 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 49 83 52 83 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 79 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 72 45 73 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 68 40 71 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 36 65 42 69 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 32 73 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 42 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 38 80 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 74 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 76 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 74 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 44 80 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 43 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 74 48 75 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.