textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Additional scattered thunderstorms tonight around El Paso and likely pushing up into Otero County. Brief heavy downpours could lead to flooding given high rainfall rates and very saturated conditions. But overall precip coverage will be far more scattered than last night.

- Flash Flood Watch has been extended into Friday morning for Dona Ana, Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties. Storm coverage will be more scattered, but most of the area is highly susceptible to strong run off due to saturated ground.

- Another round of thunderstorms is expected Thursday night, with scattered storms again Friday afternoon east of the Rio Grande.

- Quieter through the weekend, with more moisture arriving Monday and Tuesday, possibly with some tropical remnants involved.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Water vapor imagery shows another shortwave trough lifting northwards from northern Chihuahua. Radar shows an expansive area of light to moderate rain, with embedded heavier thunderstorms south of the border, but IR imagery shows cloud tops are warming. CAMS have all been having a rough time all day keeping up with what is actually going on. The 00Z RRFS weakens most of the precip as it lifts north, except around the El Paso area after 06Z. The 03Z HRRR seems to have the best handle on present reality, and concurs with weakening most of the precip band except for near an MCV that lifts up over El Paso and into the Sacramento Mountains between Midnight and 5 AM. We've also been seeing some scattered showers and thunderstorms breaking out over the El Paso area in the past 45 minutes or so, perhaps associated with a strengthening subtropical jet streak that should be nosing into the area about now, per the 00Z GFS. Another focus for showers and thunderstorms should be near the Hudspeth/Culberson county line, but so far this band has been fairly weak.

Heading into tomorrow (Thursday), we'll be on the backside of the shortwave for most of the day, then the next wave arrives with increasing thunderstorm coverage from the southwest in the evening and overnight hours. Areas east of the Continental Divide appear most favored, and near/east of the Rio Grande. We'll need to closely watch the westward edge, as there's a chance heavy rainfall may strafe Luna County and up towards the Black Range, west of the continuing portion of the Flood Watch. The already- saturated ground around El Paso and south-central NM, as well as the Sacramento Mountains, are obviously a concern.

Drier air will filter in across southwestern New Mexico on Friday, with lingering shower/thunderstorm chances further east. PWAT values will be on the downtrend, and a more west to east storm motion will be less favorable for training.

Quieter for the weekend, with 30s dewpoints seeping into SW New Mexico. Subtropical moisture returns for Monday into Tuesday. Remnants of Polo may come into play on Tuesday. Most track guidance swings Polo out west of the Baja Peninsula, when up across Sonora towards New Mexico. This is usually a less favorable setup for realizing the heaviest precip potential with a tropical system, with flow more westerly ahead of the storm, and more mountains and slightly cooler waters to cross versus coming up from the tip of Baja. Also, the jury is still out on the track, regardless of track guidance consensus. The trough that attempts to lift the tropical cyclone poleward could very well miss, bringing the center on more of a west-east track, or leaving it to wander offshore. While we really don't need the moisture, there's no need to hype the potential yet either.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will lift northwards from ELP towards the Sacramento Mountains tonight, with lesser probabilities further west. Brief MVFR ceilings at ELP will likely get mixed-out by the convection. Very heavy downpours will result in restrictions, mostly from visibility. Expect clouds will top the mountains towards morning again, as convection quiets down.

Thunderstorm chances on Thursday will mostly hold off until after 00-03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the region due to the recent rains and just a brief downturn in RH's from the 50s/60s to the 30s/40s for Sat/Sun as temps warm back into the 80s for the lowlands. Another upper trough will be affecting the region early next week with additional rainfall possible and cooler temps.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 61 77 61 79 / 40 50 80 40 Sierra Blanca 57 77 57 79 / 50 70 60 30 Las Cruces 56 75 58 76 / 40 40 70 30 Alamogordo 58 76 58 77 / 70 70 70 60 Cloudcroft 45 57 45 58 / 80 80 80 70 Truth or Consequences 57 74 59 75 / 30 20 90 40 Silver City 52 73 54 73 / 20 20 80 30 Deming 56 77 56 78 / 20 20 60 20 Lordsburg 57 77 58 78 / 10 10 60 10 West El Paso Metro 61 76 61 79 / 40 50 80 30 Dell City 60 78 60 80 / 60 70 70 60 Fort Hancock 63 83 63 86 / 50 60 70 30 Loma Linda 56 72 56 74 / 50 50 80 50 Fabens 62 80 62 83 / 50 40 70 30 Santa Teresa 59 75 60 78 / 50 40 70 30 White Sands HQ 61 76 61 78 / 60 60 80 50 Jornada Range 57 75 58 77 / 50 50 70 40 Hatch 59 77 59 79 / 40 40 80 40 Columbus 61 79 62 81 / 30 30 50 10 Orogrande 59 74 59 76 / 60 60 80 50 Mayhill 51 69 52 72 / 80 80 80 60 Mescalero 50 68 49 69 / 80 70 70 70 Timberon 47 64 48 66 / 80 70 80 60 Winston 50 68 51 69 / 20 30 80 50 Hillsboro 55 74 57 76 / 30 30 90 40 Spaceport 56 74 56 75 / 40 30 80 50 Lake Roberts 49 73 50 73 / 20 20 80 30 Hurley 52 74 54 74 / 20 20 80 30 Cliff 56 81 58 81 / 20 10 70 20 Mule Creek 54 77 55 77 / 30 10 80 20 Faywood 55 73 56 74 / 20 30 80 30 Animas 58 78 59 80 / 30 10 40 10 Hachita 57 76 58 78 / 20 10 40 10 Antelope Wells 58 77 59 81 / 50 20 40 10 Cloverdale 55 77 57 80 / 60 10 20 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.