textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 934 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Hit and miss isolated to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday.

- Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back above normal beginning Wednesday.

- Increasing winds late week, with continued dry weather will elevate fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 934 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Warmer tomorrow in response to upper level ridging over the area. A shortwave will arrive starting Monday afternoon and evening and will progress eastward across northern NM into Tuesday. This will allow for more rain chances across the area. Rain showers will begin late Monday afternoon and into the evening out west and will continue to spread eastward with the shortwave. Some lingering showers and maybe even a few thunderstorms expected Tuesday afternoon. Rain showers move out by late Tuesday. Winds look tame each afternoon with generally light afternoon breeziness expected Monday through Thursday. The next system will feature a cutoff low from the Pacific and looks to arrive Saturday. This system will bring breezy to windy conditions and yet another shot at showers and thunderstorms over the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 934 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fairly light winds overnight, but KDMN may stay somewhat breezy at 10-15KT. Southeast winds expected tomorrow afternoon with mild breezes at 10-15G20-25KT. Mid and high clouds will be on the increase from west to east tonight becoming BKN to OVC tomorrow afternoon. Rain showers arrive first at KDMN as early as the mid afternoon hours tomorrow. Rain chances will spread eastward through the overnight hours Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A boost in moisture, from the east, behind yesterday's cold front will help to keep fire weather concerns low through midweek. This change in the weather pattern will keep temperatures at or below normal through Tuesday, with plenty of passing clouds, elevated RH, and isolated to scattered light rain showers for Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy from the E and SE, but well below concerning levels, and those winds will be responsible for the ingest of the Gulf moisture, keeping RH up.

Wednesday we shift back to a modestly breezy west wind pattern, which will flush the moisture out of the region. Thus we see the start of warmer than average temperatures and lowering RH. Same for Thursday, resulting in elevated fire wx conditions. No fire wx products are anticipated later this week as winds should stay below critical thresholds and min RHs will be in the teens, staying out of the single-digit range. Late week we see a deep pacific low pressure system slowly work it's way east toward the region. As it approaches we will see increased winds over western areas Friday. Rain/storm chances appear possible over far eastern areas late in the week, as Gulf moisture attempts to wash in from the east on a possible dryline . Confidence is low in where the dryline sets up, if it develops setup.

Min RHs range from 15-35% through Tue, then 10-25% Wed/Thu. Vent rates will be good to very good today, then poor to good Mon; very good to excellent Wed onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 47 74 53 79 / 0 10 60 10 Sierra Blanca 41 69 46 76 / 20 10 70 20 Las Cruces 41 70 48 75 / 0 10 60 20 Alamogordo 38 72 46 73 / 0 10 80 50 Cloudcroft 27 51 34 50 / 0 10 80 70 Truth or Consequences 44 70 51 73 / 0 20 80 50 Silver City 39 63 44 70 / 0 30 70 20 Deming 44 72 49 78 / 0 20 70 10 Lordsburg 44 70 45 77 / 0 20 40 0 West El Paso Metro 49 73 54 79 / 0 10 50 10 Dell City 39 72 46 77 / 10 10 60 30 Fort Hancock 45 77 51 84 / 10 10 60 10 Loma Linda 41 67 48 72 / 10 10 50 20 Fabens 45 75 52 82 / 10 10 40 10 Santa Teresa 44 72 50 78 / 0 10 50 10 White Sands HQ 45 72 53 76 / 0 10 60 30 Jornada Range 37 70 46 75 / 0 10 70 30 Hatch 39 73 49 78 / 0 10 80 30 Columbus 46 74 51 81 / 0 10 50 0 Orogrande 39 70 47 74 / 0 10 70 30 Mayhill 30 62 36 62 / 0 10 70 60 Mescalero 29 62 36 61 / 0 10 80 70 Timberon 31 57 36 60 / 0 10 70 60 Winston 31 62 37 67 / 0 30 80 50 Hillsboro 41 67 46 72 / 0 20 80 30 Spaceport 36 70 44 73 / 0 10 80 30 Lake Roberts 36 65 41 69 / 0 30 80 30 Hurley 39 66 42 72 / 0 20 60 10 Cliff 41 71 44 78 / 0 30 60 10 Mule Creek 41 67 43 74 / 0 30 60 10 Faywood 40 65 45 72 / 0 20 70 20 Animas 45 73 46 79 / 0 20 30 0 Hachita 42 71 45 78 / 0 20 40 0 Antelope Wells 44 74 46 80 / 0 20 30 0 Cloverdale 44 71 49 74 / 0 20 30 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.