textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, which will approach daily records.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday, limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry conditions spread area wide over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Building ridge of high pressure aloft will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Currently centered over Arizona, thunderstorm development through Friday will be mostly driven by recycled moisture under this upper high. The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which may stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but we're only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward.

For Wednesday and Thursday, short-term models resolve an axis of more favorable moisture (PWs 1.0-1.2") across central New Mexico. This weak boundary should be sufficient for isolated (20-30% coverage) showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain of the Sacramento Mountains and Black Range during the afternoon hours. Cloud-layer flow out of the NE will promote slow storm progression toward the SW. Best chances will be across Grant, Sierra, and Hidalgo Counties, with subsequent outflows leading to gusty winds and possibly blowing dust. Currently looks like the El Paso/Las Cruces areas will remain dry due to less moisture and instability to work with. Isolated chances will continue over the high terrain on Friday, with no chances for lowland zones.

Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern Rockies Friday through the weekend, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and thus the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0" will fall below the climate normal and strong subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place throughout next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Light and variable winds this morning, shifting generally S in the afternoon. Gusty outflows may accompany isolated storms that develop during afternoon, mainly over high terrain. KTCS and KDMN are most likely to see TS/outflow winds from 21-3z, but chances are 10-20%, too low for mention in TAFs. KLRU and KELP should stay dry today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low for the rest of the week. Scattered storms develop over area mountains this afternoon, drifting southwest. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible along with brief downpours and frequent lightning. Mainly dry for the lowlands. Sierra and Hidalgo Counties are most likely to see convection for lowland areas. Prevailing winds will be light and variable today. Warm temperatures and fair to good ventilation is forecast. Isolated to scattered storms expected for Thursday, again favoring high terrain. Trending drier into the weekend and remaining warmer than normal as the upper high shifts southeast. Winds become modestly breezy from E-SE late in the week, gusting to 15-20 mph.

Min RHs range from 12-35% through the weekend. Vent rates will be fair to good today, improving to good-very good for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 102 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 98 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 69 100 70 100 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 72 99 71 97 / 10 20 10 20 Cloudcroft 54 76 54 75 / 10 50 10 40 Truth or Consequences 72 99 72 97 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 63 92 64 92 / 20 40 10 10 Deming 70 101 71 101 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 69 99 70 99 / 30 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 75 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 72 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 76 100 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 71 100 71 99 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 72 103 72 102 / 10 10 20 0 Columbus 74 102 75 101 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 60 88 59 87 / 10 30 10 10 Mescalero 58 87 57 86 / 10 60 10 40 Timberon 57 86 56 85 / 0 30 0 20 Winston 62 90 61 89 / 20 50 20 20 Hillsboro 69 98 69 97 / 20 20 20 10 Spaceport 69 99 69 98 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 91 58 90 / 10 60 20 30 Hurley 64 95 65 95 / 20 30 10 0 Cliff 66 98 66 99 / 10 50 10 10 Mule Creek 64 94 64 95 / 20 40 10 10 Faywood 67 95 68 94 / 20 30 10 0 Animas 70 99 70 99 / 20 10 20 0 Hachita 69 98 70 98 / 20 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 68 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 0 Cloverdale 65 93 66 94 / 20 20 20 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.