textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1006 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026 - Pacific storm will bring scattered rain showers area wide on Friday. Snow will be limited to elevations above 8,000 feet.

- Mild and dry conditions this weekend, followed by a series a windy days next week.

..NEXT WEEK

Next week looks to be the start of an active weather pattern setting up across western CONUS. Consistent troughing will dominate the Intermountain West as a series of Pacific storm systems move onshore. Model and ensemble guidance shows, with fairly good confidence that the specific storm track off to our north over northern AZ/NM and southern UT/CO. The first spoke of energy (shortwave trough) will eject across the southern Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Corresponding lee-side surface low development over the Central High Plains will promote breezy winds across the CWA.

The next spoke of energy approaches the region on Wednesday/Thursday timeframe , giving the area another shot of breezy to windy conditions. However, there still remains uncertainty between model guidance and their respected ensemble suites. As of now, each system that moves across the region look to be mostly dry, offering little precipitation chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies BKN-OVC at 15-20 kft through the overnight hours. Winds will be light and VRB through mid morning.

By tomorrow afternoon, moisture will continue to increase. The increase in moisture coupled with approaching upper level system will promote scattered to widespread -RS across the area with PROB30s mentioned in TAFs. Winds will become SW during the afternoon at 8-13 knots with gusts to 18-23 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Pacific storm system arrives on Friday, bringing scattered to numerous rain showers. Min RH 40-60%. Breezy southwest winds 15 to 25 mph on Friday, shifting to the northwest on Saturday. Good ventilation both days despite cloudy skies. New precipitation totals 0.25-0.50" for the mountain forests, with snow limited mostly to elevations above 8,000 feet. Low fire danger through early next week due to this expected wetting.

The start of the spring windy season looks to begin next week with a series of breezy to windy afternoons. Winds will be primarily out of the southwest, leading to Very Good ventilation and transport consistently to the ENE. Elevated fire danger conditions will be a concern the latter half of the week as relative humidity dips to critical thresholds and forests quickly dry, increasing ERCs in the coming weeks.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 53 69 46 67 / 0 50 60 10 Sierra Blanca 50 69 41 61 / 0 40 70 30 Las Cruces 48 66 40 65 / 0 40 40 10 Alamogordo 47 67 39 64 / 0 50 40 10 Cloudcroft 36 49 28 41 / 0 50 50 20 Truth or Consequences 48 67 41 67 / 0 30 50 0 Silver City 45 59 36 58 / 10 70 60 10 Deming 48 68 41 67 / 0 50 60 10 Lordsburg 48 64 40 62 / 10 60 60 0 West El Paso Metro 54 67 46 67 / 0 50 50 10 Dell City 46 70 41 66 / 0 50 50 10 Fort Hancock 53 75 44 69 / 0 50 60 20 Loma Linda 52 63 41 60 / 0 50 60 10 Fabens 52 72 44 69 / 0 50 60 10 Santa Teresa 50 66 43 66 / 0 40 50 10 White Sands HQ 53 68 44 67 / 0 40 40 10 Jornada Range 47 67 39 67 / 0 40 40 10 Hatch 46 70 41 70 / 10 40 40 10 Columbus 50 68 44 66 / 0 40 60 10 Orogrande 49 67 40 65 / 0 50 50 10 Mayhill 40 61 33 55 / 0 50 40 10 Mescalero 37 60 30 53 / 0 50 50 20 Timberon 42 57 33 51 / 0 60 50 10 Winston 37 59 30 59 / 0 50 50 0 Hillsboro 46 66 38 66 / 0 50 50 10 Spaceport 45 67 37 67 / 0 30 40 10 Lake Roberts 41 58 33 59 / 10 70 60 10 Hurley 44 62 35 61 / 10 60 60 10 Cliff 44 64 35 65 / 10 70 60 10 Mule Creek 43 58 34 60 / 10 80 70 10 Faywood 47 62 38 63 / 10 60 50 10 Animas 49 65 41 63 / 0 50 80 10 Hachita 48 65 40 63 / 0 40 70 0 Antelope Wells 47 65 39 64 / 0 40 70 0 Cloverdale 48 59 39 57 / 0 50 80 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.