textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- A rare late-season risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across the South-Central New Mexico and Far West Texas between 2 and 10 PM. Storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.

- More storm chances over the weekend, mostly east of the Rio Grande. Highest local risks across Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

- Drier weather expected early next week, but another round of rain chances looks likely after next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

WV imagery showing main upper low now over western Nevada. Low will continue lifting out northward as a secondary low eventually closes off over SoCal and Arizona. Leading trough from the low extends N-S along the AZ/NM state line with good drying behind it. This trough delineates the western edge of this evening's convection. A weakening surface front from western Arizona down across the Baja will continue east possibly near the AZ/NM before washing out. The upper trough will continue to slowly drifting east over central New Mexico Friday afternoon before washing out. This will usher drier air into the western CWA (PWs of around .6 inches compared to 1.0 inch in the east). Decent CAPE values will continue Friday, along with some speed shear. Thus expect scattered convection again from about Deming east, with more isolated storms to the west, though some severe storms still possible either side of this line.

Saturday and Sunday...upper low continues to slowly lift northward from Arizona up to southern Utah. This will push deeper layered moisture east of the RG Valley, where decent chances of storms will continue. Expect best storm coverage from the RG Valley, with just isolated showers/storms to the west. Lowering PWs all areas suggest less chance of heavy rain/flooding. Some severe storm potential will continue but should be limited mostly to the RG Valley east.

Monday and Tuesday...main upper low exits into the central Plains with drier air aloft (at least at upper levels). GFS shows mid- level winds (700mb) remaining southerly and keeping some shallower moisture in the eastern CWA, with a slight chance of showers Monday from El Paso east. Moisture clears out Tuesday as mid level winds briefly turn more southwest.

Wednesday and Thursday...GFS remains bullish in bringing up more moisture with the help of a Pacific short wave approaching the area. Thus GFS has west two days here while the ECMWF remains mostly dry.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

High risk of direct TS impacts at KELP and S NM sites this evening. Forecast beginning with FEW060, FEW-SCT250 this morning. Surface winds 140-180 at 5 to 10 knots. CB developing over northern Chihuahua and S NM after 20Z this afternoon, likely reaching KELP/KLRU 22-02Z. TS moving to the NE at 40 mph. Temporary IFR VIS due to +TSRA and gusts up to 40 knots possible. TAF amendments are likely this timeframe. Conditions expected to improve after 04Z tonight, with lingering SHRA through midnight, then clear early Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Low fire danger due to recent rains. Prevailing wind out of the SSE at 5 to 10 mph, with Good vent rates today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon, mostly affecting south- central New Mexico and Lincoln NF. Some storms will be severe between 2-8PM, with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Rain chances shift east over the weekend, leading to a mostly dry Gila NF and Western NM, but widespread storms continuing for Southeast NM and Lincoln NF. Storm motions to the NE at 30-40 mph will reduce flood risk somewhat, though localized flooding remains possible. Monday-Wednesday look drier, but rain chances return quickly by the end of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 59 79 57 75 / 80 60 80 10 Sierra Blanca 56 77 54 74 / 60 50 80 20 Las Cruces 54 74 52 71 / 70 50 70 20 Alamogordo 54 75 52 71 / 90 80 90 40 Cloudcroft 42 54 40 52 / 90 80 90 40 Truth or Consequences 54 69 52 68 / 50 60 50 20 Silver City 48 65 43 64 / 30 40 10 10 Deming 53 75 50 72 / 30 30 10 20 Lordsburg 54 71 47 69 / 10 20 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 78 59 74 / 80 60 80 10 Dell City 58 77 56 73 / 80 80 100 50 Fort Hancock 62 85 60 82 / 80 60 70 20 Loma Linda 55 72 53 68 / 80 70 90 20 Fabens 60 82 58 79 / 70 50 80 20 Santa Teresa 57 77 55 73 / 70 50 70 10 White Sands HQ 58 77 56 73 / 80 70 90 30 Jornada Range 55 74 52 71 / 80 60 80 20 Hatch 55 75 52 73 / 60 50 50 20 Columbus 57 78 54 75 / 20 30 10 10 Orogrande 55 74 53 71 / 80 80 90 30 Mayhill 48 62 46 62 / 90 90 90 40 Mescalero 46 65 44 62 / 90 80 90 30 Timberon 44 61 42 59 / 100 90 100 60 Winston 45 63 40 63 / 40 60 30 10 Hillsboro 51 69 46 68 / 50 50 30 20 Spaceport 52 71 50 69 / 60 60 60 30 Lake Roberts 45 64 37 64 / 40 50 10 10 Hurley 48 68 43 66 / 30 40 10 10 Cliff 53 71 47 70 / 30 50 10 10 Mule Creek 48 66 43 65 / 20 40 0 0 Faywood 51 67 46 66 / 40 40 20 20 Animas 54 74 48 73 / 0 10 0 0 Hachita 54 74 49 72 / 10 20 0 10 Antelope Wells 54 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 51 68 46 69 / 0 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.