textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- A surge of gulf moisture, from the east, residing over the Borderland Tuesday through Saturday will bring the Borderland region daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail will be possible as well.

- Beginning Sunday, and lasting into next week, a ridge of high pressure will settle over the Borderland. This will bring a warmer and drier pattern to the region. Lowland areas will likely see their first 100 degree highs of the year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 833 PM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

We started our typically hottest month of the year, June, with slightly above normal temperatures, and just enough moisture in from the east, to pair that heat with showers and storms from the Rio Grande eastward. Tonight, we see a continuation of easterly winds, importing more Gulf moisture into our area. This means bolstering dewpoints into the 40s and 50s, and PWATs above 0.75" for all areas east of the Rio Grande, and at least 0.50" for all but the Bootheel. That means the daytime warming, coupled with light surface convergence, and weakening high pressure, with a trough approaching from the west, will all serve to make for a destabilized atmosphere, resulting in afternoon showers and thunderstorms. They should be more widespread, and wetter east of the Rio.

We repeat the same scenario through the rest of the week, with persistent low-level moisture flow from the east. This keeps our atmosphere moist and unstable. Wednesday through Friday, and likely still on Saturday look to deliver daily round of area wide showers and thunderstorms, as we sit under a slow passing trough and disturbance aloft. The best days for storms and potential for heavy rain look to be Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week, it appears that convective activity may be a bit reduced and more focused south and back east.

Beginning late Saturday, and continuing Sunday, the upper trough progresses east, and some semblance of high pressure looks to form over the region. This will not be a full sweep out of moisture, but we will trend sharply drier, and more stable, to significantly reduce storm chances, and limit them more to the high country. In addition, we are looking at a significant warming trend, with above normal temperatures by Sunday, and likely triple-digit heat for early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Moisture and rain chances have returned to the region. By this afternoon and evening we will see scattered thunderstorms mainly east of the Rio Grande. The main threat from these thunderstorms will be strong and gusty outflow winds. If thunderstorms occur near an airport we could see some brief MVFR ceilings or visibilities. The thunderstorms will wind down by late evening. Away from the thunderstorms we will southeast winds which will be occasionally gusty. Like the storms the wind gusts will drop off sometime before midnight. We will have unlimited ceiling this morning, but clouds will be on the increase especially as we head into the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 2 2026

We will see a chance for thunderstorms today, mainly east of the Rio Grande and in area mountains. The main threat today will be strong and gusty outflow winds, which come move off a great distance from the parent thunderstorms. Min RH's today will be divided along the Rio Grande, with readings in the teens in west of the river and 20% or higher east of the river. Those higher min RH's will spread across the whole region for Wednesday and Thursday. We will be drier for the coming weekend with min RH's in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Outside of today, winds look to stay well below critical levels. Vent rates today and Wednesday will range from very good to excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 93 67 90 / 30 40 70 20 Sierra Blanca 61 86 59 83 / 50 60 70 50 Las Cruces 61 90 59 87 / 30 30 70 20 Alamogordo 61 88 62 87 / 40 50 60 40 Cloudcroft 46 67 46 66 / 40 80 60 80 Truth or Consequences 62 88 62 87 / 30 50 50 20 Silver City 56 85 54 83 / 10 60 50 50 Deming 62 95 59 92 / 10 20 60 10 Lordsburg 63 92 60 91 / 0 30 40 10 West El Paso Metro 68 92 66 88 / 30 40 70 20 Dell City 60 88 59 86 / 50 60 70 40 Fort Hancock 67 95 65 91 / 40 60 60 40 Loma Linda 61 84 60 82 / 30 50 70 40 Fabens 65 94 63 90 / 30 50 60 20 Santa Teresa 63 91 61 87 / 20 40 70 20 White Sands HQ 69 90 68 88 / 40 40 70 30 Jornada Range 61 90 60 87 / 40 30 70 20 Hatch 62 93 61 90 / 20 40 60 30 Columbus 67 94 64 92 / 10 30 60 10 Orogrande 61 87 61 85 / 40 40 70 40 Mayhill 51 76 51 76 / 50 90 60 90 Mescalero 50 77 50 76 / 40 80 60 70 Timberon 48 74 47 72 / 40 70 70 70 Winston 52 81 52 80 / 20 70 50 50 Hillsboro 61 87 60 85 / 20 50 50 50 Spaceport 58 88 57 86 / 30 40 60 30 Lake Roberts 52 86 51 84 / 10 80 50 70 Hurley 57 88 55 85 / 10 50 60 40 Cliff 57 92 55 90 / 10 60 30 40 Mule Creek 56 89 54 87 / 0 60 30 40 Faywood 59 87 57 84 / 10 40 60 40 Animas 61 93 59 91 / 0 30 40 10 Hachita 61 92 59 90 / 0 30 50 10 Antelope Wells 61 93 59 91 / 0 30 30 20 Cloverdale 58 89 57 87 / 0 20 30 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.