textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

- Breezy afternoon winds over the next few days. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph Sunday and Monday with areas of blowing dust along the I-10 corridor.

- Critical fire weather conditions through Monday due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas.

- Lighter wind Tuesday through the rest of the week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms along eastern zones next Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Primary concern over the next couple days will be Critical fire weather conditions. Satellite depicts an upper low over the Great Basin with very dry, southwest flow below the jet streak at the base of the system. This very dry air sits across most of New Mexico and West Texas, with surface dewpoints mixing down into the lower teens each afternoon.

For Sunday, 988mb surface lee low development at the NE tip of New Mexico will tighten pressure gradients across the state, promoting breezy conditions throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Most common wind speeds will be 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph across Southern New Mexico. Forecast guidance remains below Advisory criteria, thus no Wind headlines. El Paso's winds will be a bit weaker (15 to 25 mph), as the axis of strongest winds extends from a roughly Lordsburg-to-Clovis line. Still, areas of blowing dust can be expected along the I-10 corridor Sunday afternoon, especially around Lordsburg, Deming, and El Paso. Temperatures will be right near normal for mid-May, with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s.

Very similar conditions on Monday, as an 80-knot jet streak at the base of the upper low ejects over the Colorado/Kansas Plains well to our north. Breezy southwest winds and dry area wide with gusts up to 45 mph across Southern New Mexico. We may also see another round of patchy blowing dust Monday afternoon. Overall, almost a carbon copy on Sunday's weather.

Lighter flow aloft along with surface high pressure over the High Plains will lead to lighter winds on Tuesday. Winds will remain out of the southwest, but closer to 10 to 15 mph. Very subtle moisture advection out of Baja California may also help boost dewpoints a bit too, though the area will remain rain-free.

The forecast later this week will be highly dependent on the westward extent of the dryline moisture boundary positions across Eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos Region of West Texas. Moist, southeast flow up the lower Rio Grande Valley will bring plenty of moisture into Big Bend, but eventually run into the consistent, dry west flow across Southwest New Mexico and El Paso. This will help us form a very defined boundary between dry and moist, likely just to the east of the El Paso CWA. Overnight "sloshing" of the boundary, along with potentially strong outflow pushing this moisture further west, could allow moisture to reach as far the Rio Grande Valley. For now, slight chance for showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties, but no further west. Latest GFS run seems confident that dry, westerly flow will keep this moisture at bay, thus no rain chances for El Paso through the week ahead.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

VMC through forecast period under strong southwest flow aloft. Surface winds overnight 230-260 at 10 to 15 knots. LLWS included in KELP TAF around 06Z tonight, highlighting 35 knots at mountaintop level. Breezy conditions on Sunday, generally 230-260 at 20G30KT across S NM, 15G25KT across W TX. BLDU may reduce visibility at KDMN and KELP between 19Z-01Z. Skies remaining clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

A trough currently over southwestern Canada will dig into the Great Basin over the next couple of days, bringing increasing west to southwest winds to the area, while very low humidity levels remain in place.

A leading shortwave trough over Nevada today will move into Colorado late tonight, while a second shortwave trough dives down the Pacific Northwest coast. This second shortwave will help deepen the longwave trough, and keep windy conditions in place through Monday.

The timing of the individual shortwave troughs will help keep winds aloft elevated tonight, and again Sunday night. As a result, breezy to gusty winds along higher elevation ridges, as well as north and east-facing mountain slopes tonight and Sunday night will severely limit overnight RH recovery.

In some areas, including along and north of the Capitan Ridge, Red Flag conditions may persist through Sunday night and into Monday morning.

Winds will likely stay below Red Flag criteria tonight, but stronger winds aloft will quickly reach the surface earlier in the morning than usual, on Sunday. Thus the Red Flag Warning for Sunday starts just after daybreak. When it ends at Midnight Sunday night, a Fire Weather Watch picks right up in its place, and continues through Monday.

A backdoor cold front looks to stall out just east of the Sacramento Mountains on Tuesday, but it looks like it will interrupt the pressure gradient across the region enough on Tuesday to bring us lighter winds.

This front will merge with the dryline, and for the rest of the week, we'll need to see if thunderstorms to our east can push any moisture into the Sacramento Mountains during the overnights. Otherwise, for most areas, dry west southwest flow will continue, with breezy afternoons bringing elevated fire weather conditions back into play by Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 64 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 86 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 78 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 85 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 96 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 93 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 88 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 67 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 89 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 90 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 77 53 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 75 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 47 73 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 77 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 83 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 78 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 82 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 84 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 80 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 81 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 79 53 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 7 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.