textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100 degrees. Heat Advisory in effect today and again for El Paso and the Lower Valley on Thursday. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Thursday. Storms will be capable of strong winds and blowing dust.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Subtropical high pressure aloft fixed directly over the El Paso region today, which will allow this ongoing heat wave to reach a head this afternoon. Forecast high of 107 degrees for El Paso, with the rest of the NM lowlands 102 to 106 degrees. Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Slight increase in moisture should also allow for isolated (10-20% coverage) rain showers. These will be almost exclusively driven by convective temperature forcing due to the heat, but may be further assisted by weak shortwaves aloft. Surface dewpoint depressions of 70+ degrees (a lot of 105/35 this afternoon) and very weak instability (CAPE 50-200 J/kg) indicates that any showers that form will be weak and low-precipitation. Virga will be more common, leading to a dry microburst threat and the potential for gusty winds this afternoon.

Upper high sags south slightly on Thursday, which will begin a "cooling" trend. Lowlands highs will remain above 100 into the weekend, however. Isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon will be low-precipitation with strong wind gusts being the primary threat.

Jet stream flow over the Pacific coast increases over the weekend, which will push the upper high eastward and flush moisture eastward as well. Storm chances will be limited mostly east of the Rio Grande and over far west Texas. Temperatures will continue to drop a few degrees each day, with the forecast ending our current streak of triple-digit heat by early next week.

Stagnant weather pattern next week, with a trough across the Western U.S. and a strong upper high across the Mississippi River Valley. The El Paso region will sit in the middle of these features, leading to favorable south flow and monsoonal moisture in place. Rain chances look pretty good area-wide the first week of July with scattered thunderstorm chances each afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VMC through forecast period under light west flow aloft. Isolated -SHRA and VIRGA across SW NM this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 knots possible near these showers. Prevailing surface winds 270-300 at 08 to 12 knots. Skies FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 this afternoon. Light surface winds overnight AOB 8 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Main concern this afternoon will be sudden wind shifts due to strong outflow from rain showers. Isolated (10-20%) showers developing over the high terrain this afternoon which will be low-precipitation, but produce gusty winds. Sudden, erratic gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. This will be very difficult to detect ahead of time, given the low intensity of rain. Otherwise, conditions will be hot again today, with Min RH 10 to 15%. Very Good ventilation today with transport to the E.

Moisture increasing tomorrow, which will lead to isolated (20-30% coverage) showers again. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, with minimal rain amounts. Excellent vent rates with prevailing flow out of the west.

Outlook for the weekend will be a subtle but steady cool down, with temperatures near normal for the first week of July. Gila NF will be dry, with Near Critical fire weather conditions. Moisture pushed east will limit storm chances to Lincoln NF and far west Texas over the weekend, then returning area wide next week. ERCs are very high, at the 90th percentile over the New Mexico forests and currently at seasonal peaks.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 105 77 103 / 10 0 20 0 Sierra Blanca 71 101 70 98 / 10 0 20 10 Las Cruces 72 102 69 100 / 0 0 20 0 Alamogordo 72 102 70 100 / 0 0 20 10 Cloudcroft 55 80 54 78 / 0 10 20 10 Truth or Consequences 72 100 70 100 / 10 20 20 0 Silver City 66 94 64 93 / 10 10 10 0 Deming 71 103 68 102 / 10 10 20 0 Lordsburg 70 99 67 99 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 78 103 76 101 / 0 0 30 0 Dell City 71 104 70 102 / 10 0 20 10 Fort Hancock 77 106 75 104 / 10 0 30 0 Loma Linda 72 97 70 96 / 0 0 20 0 Fabens 76 106 74 104 / 10 0 20 0 Santa Teresa 75 102 72 100 / 0 0 30 0 White Sands HQ 78 103 76 101 / 0 0 20 0 Jornada Range 72 102 69 101 / 0 10 20 0 Hatch 72 104 70 103 / 0 10 20 0 Columbus 77 104 73 102 / 10 10 30 0 Orogrande 71 101 69 100 / 0 0 20 0 Mayhill 60 91 59 90 / 0 10 10 20 Mescalero 58 90 57 89 / 10 10 20 10 Timberon 57 88 57 86 / 0 0 20 10 Winston 61 91 59 91 / 10 30 20 10 Hillsboro 69 99 67 98 / 10 10 30 0 Spaceport 68 101 66 100 / 0 10 20 0 Lake Roberts 60 94 59 93 / 10 10 20 0 Hurley 68 97 65 96 / 10 10 10 0 Cliff 67 100 65 99 / 10 10 10 0 Mule Creek 65 95 64 94 / 10 20 10 0 Faywood 68 97 66 95 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 70 99 68 99 / 20 20 20 0 Hachita 70 100 66 99 / 10 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 70 99 67 98 / 20 20 30 10 Cloverdale 67 94 65 93 / 20 20 20 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.