textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 426 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Medium chance (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms across the Sacramento mountains and eastern lowlands on Sunday, with limited dry lightning chances over southwestern New Mexico.

- Strong outflow winds (40-50 mph) on Sunday. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in mountain areas starting Monday persisting through mid week. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains.

- Warmer late week, with widespread triple digit temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 PM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Broad upper level ridge remains in control over the region through mid-week before drifting westward and leading to a more north to northeasterly flow aloft mid to late week. However, the combination of ample moisture with PWATs near 1.1-1.2" (90th percentile), a few passing disturbances on the eastern periphery of the high, orographic lift, and diurnal heating will provide the setting for daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms especially over the mountains Sunday through Wednesday.

Rain chances are progged to increase throughout the day tomorrow, with the highest chances mainly residing over the Sacramento mountains early in the day, then shifting southwestward into the lowlands in the mid afternoon hours. Latest CAM runs indicate the rainfall and potential thunderstorm activity reaching El Paso, Dona Ana, and Hudspeth counties between 20-23Z tomorrow, and lingering into the early evening hours. Across the west, drier conditions will likely prevail, but dry thunderstorms remain a possibility. In addition, although winds will generally be light, storm outflows could lead to strong winds around 40-50 mph or more at times.

Monday and Tuesday are shaping to become more active over the Gila and Sacramento mountains, with PoPs rising to around 60-70% during the day leading to localized flooding concerns especially near burn scar areas. Across the rest of the CWA, medium rain chances (30-50%) will exist over southwestern New Mexico, with only a slight chance (10-30%) remaining across the rest of the lowlands in response to moisture falling to near normal levels. Beyond that, the mountains will continue to see afternoon convective activity, while the lowlands will remain relatively dry. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler early in the week, but widespread triple digits return by Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 426 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Generally VFR through the period, with SCT150 BKN250. Developing after 18Z over the mountains...isolated OVC070CB -TSRA and spreading to the lowlands after 21Z. Most thunderstorms should be done by 03Z, though a few could persist over far west Texas into the late night hours. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, then east/southeast 7-10 knots this afternoon. Strong wind gusts associated with thunderstorms are likely by late this afternoon, especially from the Organ/Franklin Mtns west, where wind gusts of 35-45 knots are possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 426 AM MDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Fire conditions will remain elevated across sections of the fire zones mainly west of the Continental Divide today. Much of these areas remain dry with little rainfall over the past few weeks. ERCs for zones 110/111 remain above the 90th percentile. And to add to that today, a bit of moisture increase across the Gila Wilderness could produce a few afternoon thunderstorms. With dewpoint depressions still large, the chance for wetting rain in this area is small and the possibility exists for dry lightning. Otherwise, moisture on the increase Monday and Tuesday with some thunderstorms likely across all zones. Non-thunderstorm winds will remain relatively light through the week; temperatures will continue above normal all week.

Min RH: Lowlands west of the RG Valley...10-15% today, increasing to 15-20% Monday through Wednesday, then back to 10-15% Thursday and Friday. Lowlands RG Valley east...15-20% through Wednesday, then 10-17% Thursday and Friday. Gila/Black Range Mtns...15-20% today, increasing to 20-30% Monday through Wednesday, then back to 12-20% Thursday and Friday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...20-30% today, increasing to 25-40% Monday through Wednesday, then back to 20-30% Thursday and Friday. Vent rates good-very good through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 100 77 99 / 50 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 67 95 67 94 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 69 98 68 97 / 40 10 30 10 Alamogordo 68 97 69 95 / 20 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 54 76 54 73 / 40 70 10 60 Truth or Consequences 71 98 70 97 / 0 20 10 20 Silver City 65 93 64 91 / 20 60 30 50 Deming 68 99 68 98 / 20 10 30 10 Lordsburg 71 100 70 98 / 30 20 40 20 West El Paso Metro 76 99 76 98 / 50 0 30 0 Dell City 69 98 69 97 / 20 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 74 101 75 100 / 30 10 0 10 Loma Linda 68 92 69 91 / 40 10 0 10 Fabens 74 101 75 100 / 50 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 72 98 72 97 / 30 0 30 0 White Sands HQ 76 99 76 98 / 40 10 30 10 Jornada Range 66 98 65 97 / 40 20 30 10 Hatch 68 101 67 100 / 30 20 30 10 Columbus 75 100 74 99 / 10 10 30 10 Orogrande 67 96 67 95 / 30 20 10 20 Mayhill 57 87 58 84 / 50 60 10 40 Mescalero 56 87 56 84 / 30 70 10 60 Timberon 55 84 55 81 / 40 60 10 30 Winston 62 90 59 88 / 10 70 20 60 Hillsboro 68 95 67 94 / 10 30 20 30 Spaceport 64 98 64 97 / 10 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 59 94 59 92 / 10 70 30 80 Hurley 66 96 64 94 / 20 50 40 40 Cliff 64 99 65 98 / 0 60 30 50 Mule Creek 60 96 61 95 / 10 50 30 50 Faywood 67 94 65 92 / 10 40 30 30 Animas 71 100 70 99 / 0 10 40 10 Hachita 70 99 68 98 / 0 10 50 10 Antelope Wells 72 100 70 98 / 10 10 50 10 Cloverdale 68 95 67 93 / 10 20 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.