textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected for Tuesday, mainly limited to the high terrain and Southwest New Mexico.

- Temperatures warming back up Tuesday and Wednesday, with lowland highs in the lower 80s. This is slightly above average for late October.

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in localized flooding. Flooding risk will be highest across western New Mexico and the Gila Wilderness.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Diffluent southwest flow within the RE region of the subtropical jet lead to isolated supercells and severe weather this evening. 00Z RAOB at KEPZ confirmed favorable wind shear and an increase in moisture. Precipitable water is now 1.0-1.1" with 30-40 knots of EBWS and a 45 knot speed max at 400mb, enough for some very strong storms across SW NM today.

Prevailing weather pattern depicts a diving Pacific low moving south down the California coast. This low will play a major role in late-week rain chances for the El Paso area. To the south, high pressure aloft is building over S TX and NE Mexico. SSW flow aloft will continue to promote moisture advection out of the south, leading to an extended period of rain chances for late-October.

For Tuesday temperatures will continue to warm a bit, reaching the lower 80s across most of the desert lowlands. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected, again favoring SW NM and the high terrain. Coverage will be lower, generally 10-20% given warmer air aloft eating away at instability. Still, favorable 0-6km wind shear profiles could result in a couple strong to severe storms across Grant/Hidalgo Counties. Very similar conditions on Wednesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring SW NM during the afternoon and evening hours.

Forecast remains on track for widespread rain chances Thursday/Friday across Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Pacific low will move ashore late this week, with a 75-knot jet streak rounding the base of the system over the Southwest US. Deep moisture flux out of Mexico will push precipitable water values to 1.2-1.4", well above normal for this time of year. Widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across E AZ and W NM will slowly move east across the forecast area. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding. Current guidance put the highest flood risk over W NM, including Grant County and the Gila Wilderness (most likely rain amounts 1.00-1.50", worse-case 2.00-3.00" localized).

Models continue to struggle with the evolution of this system, leaving remnant energy behind and continuing rain chances into the upcoming weekend. This comes at fairly low confidence right now, given the weaker forcing. This, however, is something the area should get used to given a winter outlook that suggests above normal precipitation and more frequent Pacific storm systems.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Scattered TS moving across S NM tonight, with lingering -RA behind it at local TAFs sites through 12Z. VCSH mention included at KELP/KLRU for a few hours into Tuesday morning. Overnight conditions VMC with skies SCT-BKN100 and surface winds VRB03KT. Light SE flow tomorrow, with isolated TSRA limited to S NM mountains. Not expecting TS mention in any local TAFs tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Oct 19 2026

While temperatures will be warming up the next couple of days to about 10 degrees above normal, fairly high moisture for Oct will be in place and keep RH's above 30%. There will be scattered thunderstorms almost daily, especially in area mountains going into the weekend. Best rain chances come Thu-Fri when some locally heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the Gila region. Temperatures will be cooling down as we head into the later part of the week and rain chances increase. Vent rates generally Fair to good through Wed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 82 61 86 / 80 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 54 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 78 57 82 / 60 10 0 0 Alamogordo 54 79 58 82 / 60 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 58 44 62 / 50 20 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 77 56 79 / 60 20 0 10 Silver City 51 72 54 74 / 80 30 10 20 Deming 54 80 57 83 / 60 10 10 0 Lordsburg 55 78 59 80 / 70 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 61 81 64 85 / 80 0 10 0 Dell City 54 82 57 85 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 89 62 91 / 30 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 77 56 79 / 60 0 0 0 Fabens 58 86 62 89 / 70 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 80 61 84 / 60 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 59 81 62 84 / 90 10 0 0 Jornada Range 55 78 57 82 / 80 10 0 0 Hatch 55 81 58 84 / 70 10 0 0 Columbus 57 81 61 85 / 50 0 10 0 Orogrande 54 79 57 83 / 90 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 71 48 74 / 40 20 0 0 Mescalero 46 70 48 73 / 40 20 0 10 Timberon 46 67 47 70 / 60 10 0 0 Winston 46 69 49 71 / 60 30 0 20 Hillsboro 54 76 57 78 / 70 30 10 10 Spaceport 54 77 56 80 / 70 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 71 49 74 / 70 40 10 30 Hurley 50 74 53 77 / 80 20 10 10 Cliff 55 80 57 82 / 60 20 10 40 Mule Creek 51 75 55 77 / 60 20 30 50 Faywood 52 74 56 77 / 80 20 10 10 Animas 55 79 58 82 / 70 10 10 10 Hachita 54 79 58 82 / 70 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 55 80 58 83 / 40 10 10 0 Cloverdale 53 77 58 79 / 50 0 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.