textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026 - Continued rain chances again Friday with the area mountains being favored with more isolated activity in the desert lowlands.

- Rain chances possible east of the Rio Grande this weekend.

- Near critical to critical fire weather concerns possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure will start to elongate and broaden across the Gulf to northern Mexico but moisture is still trapped under the high which will continue thunderstorm chances again Friday afternoon. High terrain areas will be favored for storms and more isolated to potentially scattered activity in the desert lowlands wherever outflows can trigger off storms. Another gusty and dusty day can be expected again as dewpoint depressions will still be around 45-50 degrees. Heading into the weekend, high pressure meanders over the Gulf states and looks to build over the southern US. Meanwhile, a large upper trough dives south over the PacNW and western CONUS which will add some breeziness to the area this weekend with sustained winds of around 10-20 mph. This is usually not too noticeable but this will create near critical to critical fire weather concerns this weekend. Saturday and Sunday looks to feature some rain chances but will be focused east of the Rio Grande. Next week looks quite active with a monsoon tap of moisture flowing over the area allowing for daily afternoon storm chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Storms are starting to wind down this evening transforming into mostly showery activity. A few lightning strikes are being noted here and there but this activity is on the downtrend. Gusty winds still possible from decaying showers. Another round of thunderstorms expected to pop up early in the afternoon. KTCS has the best shot to see a storm tomorrow. Main hazards will be gusty and erratic outflow winds and blowing dust.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 944 AM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

...Elevated to possibly critical fire weather conditions this weekend...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the area today and tomorrow as the high pressure system overhead moves south into Mexico and allows mid-level moisture to seep in. Min RH values will be in the mid-to-upper teens, however, as low-level moisture will be few and far between. These thunderstorms may produce gusty outflow winds in the afternoon and evening, and may also pose a risk of dry lightning. Temperatures will begin to cool off as the weekend commences, with high temperatures finally falling below 100.

However, as the high pressure system moves east, a large upper- level trough from the Pacific Northwest will bring breezy winds into our area, especially west of the Rio Grande. Low rainfall rates from these isolated storms will not help fuel recovery much, and winds up to 20 mph on Saturday and especially Sunday means we will be near Red Flag criteria out west. Fire Weather Watches will likely be issued out west Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 102 76 101 / 20 10 20 0 Sierra Blanca 70 98 68 96 / 10 20 30 10 Las Cruces 68 99 69 99 / 20 10 10 0 Alamogordo 69 99 70 99 / 20 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 54 77 55 77 / 30 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 69 98 69 99 / 30 20 10 0 Silver City 63 92 64 91 / 10 20 10 0 Deming 67 101 68 101 / 20 20 10 0 Lordsburg 66 97 68 97 / 20 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 75 100 75 99 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 70 102 70 101 / 10 20 20 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 74 102 / 10 20 40 0 Loma Linda 70 95 69 93 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 74 103 73 102 / 10 10 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 99 72 98 / 20 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 100 76 100 / 20 10 10 0 Jornada Range 68 100 69 99 / 30 20 10 0 Hatch 68 102 69 102 / 40 20 10 0 Columbus 73 101 73 101 / 30 20 10 0 Orogrande 68 99 69 98 / 20 10 10 0 Mayhill 59 88 60 88 / 20 20 10 0 Mescalero 57 88 57 88 / 20 10 10 0 Timberon 56 85 56 85 / 20 10 10 0 Winston 58 89 59 90 / 30 30 10 0 Hillsboro 66 97 67 97 / 30 20 10 0 Spaceport 64 99 65 99 / 30 20 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 92 59 91 / 10 20 0 0 Hurley 64 95 64 95 / 10 20 10 0 Cliff 64 98 64 97 / 20 20 10 0 Mule Creek 62 93 63 93 / 20 20 10 0 Faywood 65 94 66 94 / 20 20 10 0 Animas 67 98 67 98 / 20 20 10 0 Hachita 66 98 66 97 / 30 20 10 0 Antelope Wells 67 97 68 97 / 30 20 10 0 Cloverdale 64 92 65 91 / 40 20 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.