textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms today and tomorrow with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards.

- Lowland high temperatures will be in the upper 90s and low triple digits today before cooling slightly into the upper 80s and low 90s.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday and Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms which could lead to flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

H500 high is beginning to shift northward, centered over the Four Corners this morning. In our neck of the woods, GFS shows some convergence at H700, and that is likely what is responsible for a weakening line of showers across the Central part of our CWA. Dewpoints are in the lower to mid 50s. Thus, we will see additional shower and thunderstorm development today, much similar to yesterday, with scattered coverage in the mountains and west of the Rio Grande with more isolated lowland coverage east. The main concern will be strong, damaging downdraft winds, and based on yesterday, these gusts could reach 70 MPH. With the winds will come blowing dust, and I have issued a blowing dust advisory for our southwest lowlands. The UL high will continue its northward shift tomorrow with an otherwise similar forecast albeit a few degrees cooler.

Beginning Monday we enter an active pattern. The UL high will shift into the Northern Plains leaving us with a deep easterly fetch. This will increase our moisture, cool the column (including afternoon highs), and lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances. These chances will be enhanced by small- scale UL waves that deterministic models have a difficult time resolving this far out. One notable UL wave, however, looks to especially enhance our shower and thunderstorm chances. The GFS and Euro disagree on its evolution, but both models show a closed low forming over the SE on Monday that will retrograde to the west, reaching us by mid-week, possibly stalling over us or at least, slowing to a crawl. Thus, the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase for the last half of next week, but we will need to wait on the details.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon with cloud bases 050-100. The main concern with any of these storms will be strong, gusty outflow winds, and outflows are likely to travel far from storms, likely affecting all sites though confidence on timing is too low to include in TAFs. More direct impacts (+RA) are more likely at TCS and DMN with a bit higher confidence for TCS. BLDU will also be a concern with these outflow winds. Otherwise, it will be generally FEW-SCT100/250 with winds topping out around 10 knots, from the east or southeast, with a few gusts to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Fire concerns will be decreasing. Today will be our driest and hottest day with highs about 5 degrees above normal and afternoon humidity in the mid to upper teens. There will be enough moisture for additional shower and thunderstorms with similar coverage to yesterday. Strong winds will be the main concern with any storms. After today, highs decrease while moisture increases. Min RH values will be the upper 20s to lower 30s with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances along with a risk for flash flooding. Venting today will range very good to excellent but will gradually decrease through the week ahead. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will generally top out around 10 MPH each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 97 75 92 / 20 20 20 40 Sierra Blanca 66 91 64 86 / 20 20 20 70 Las Cruces 70 95 68 91 / 20 20 20 20 Alamogordo 69 94 68 90 / 20 30 20 60 Cloudcroft 51 72 50 68 / 20 30 30 70 Truth or Consequences 72 94 70 91 / 30 20 40 20 Silver City 65 89 64 86 / 40 30 40 30 Deming 69 98 68 94 / 20 20 30 20 Lordsburg 68 95 69 92 / 30 20 30 10 West El Paso Metro 77 96 75 91 / 20 20 20 40 Dell City 69 94 68 90 / 20 20 20 40 Fort Hancock 74 98 72 93 / 20 20 30 70 Loma Linda 68 89 66 85 / 20 20 20 40 Fabens 74 98 72 93 / 20 20 20 50 Santa Teresa 73 95 71 90 / 20 20 20 40 White Sands HQ 76 96 75 92 / 20 20 20 30 Jornada Range 72 95 70 92 / 20 20 20 30 Hatch 71 98 70 95 / 20 20 30 20 Columbus 75 98 73 94 / 20 20 20 30 Orogrande 70 94 68 90 / 20 20 20 30 Mayhill 56 81 54 77 / 20 40 60 60 Mescalero 56 82 54 79 / 20 40 30 70 Timberon 54 80 52 76 / 20 20 30 60 Winston 61 87 60 84 / 20 20 30 10 Hillsboro 69 92 66 89 / 40 20 30 30 Spaceport 68 94 66 91 / 20 20 30 30 Lake Roberts 58 89 58 87 / 30 40 40 40 Hurley 65 92 64 89 / 30 30 40 10 Cliff 65 94 65 92 / 30 60 40 50 Mule Creek 63 90 62 89 / 30 50 40 50 Faywood 66 91 65 87 / 30 20 40 20 Animas 68 95 68 92 / 50 20 30 30 Hachita 68 95 67 91 / 40 20 20 30 Antelope Wells 68 94 66 89 / 40 20 50 50 Cloverdale 64 90 63 85 / 50 20 60 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.