textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Near-normal temperatures late this week, then warming for eastern areas through the weekend. - Slight chance of showers or storms in area mountains Thursday afternoon, then dry for Friday.

- Moisture levels increase early next week, bringing low-medium rain chances. Confidence is low regarding impacts, and the forecast could change significantly between now and then.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 947 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A weak upper trough will slide SE through our area tonight, which may produce enough lift to spark isolated showers along the LC-EP corridor early in the morning. CAMs have backed off on this activity in the last 24 hours, so chances are slim (10-20%). The lingering trough results in better E flow near the sfc Thu with isolated diurnal convection over area mtns during the afternoon. A shower or two cannot be ruled out for the lowlands. Otherwise, dry conditions with seasonal temps.

Upper ridging builds in for Fri from the south, pushing the trough further east as it gets sucked into now Hurricane Isaias. Subsidence from the warmer air aloft should limit storm coverage on Fri, even in the mtns.

Moisture levels increase over the weekend as the ridge shifts east and troughing takes over the West Coast. Subtropical moisture is pulled N ahead of an upper low/TS Rachel starting on Sat with mostly high level clouds. Rain chances are introduced for the Gila on Sat, focusing out west through Sun. The combined upper low and remnants of Rachel will mainly impact the lower CO River Valley and AZ, bringing them the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, including the Mogollon Rim. A few spotty showers are possible on Sun for much of our area with a low threat of flooding for the Gila.

The rest of the period gets weird. TS Simon, which is expected to rapidly intensify, will track N through MX early next week with its moisture getting scooped up by the upper low/Rachel. It's uncertain the track and strength of Simon as it moves inland, but the NHC track has the storm heading towards Sonora/Chihuahua. Models are struggling with rainfall amounts for this potential event, but the latest NBM has everyone getting some rain in the median scenario, compared to basically nothing in the previous run. Confidence is low in what our flooding risk will be Mon- Tue, but we'll have our ears open to hear what Simon says (hopefully not a repeat of Polo).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Isolated (10-20%) -SHRA develop near KLRU and KELP in the early AM and again in the afternoon. Mostly SKC with FEW-SCT080 developing in the afternoon around KELP. Winds AOB 8kts from E-NE in the AM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast for the period. Temperatures will be a bit above normal, while afternoon RH values drop into the 20s. Winds will be light, and this will lead to poor to fair venting this afternoon though venting will improve some (fair to good) for Thursday and Friday. A weak system will also bring modest rain/storm chances today and tomorrow with the focus on mountains though any rainfall accumulations will be light. Any shower or storm will produce gusty outflow winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 64 85 63 84 / 20 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 59 79 57 80 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 60 82 59 81 / 20 10 10 0 Alamogordo 59 80 57 81 / 10 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 43 58 42 58 / 10 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 58 81 57 80 / 0 10 10 0 Silver City 55 76 54 75 / 20 20 10 0 Deming 60 84 59 83 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 60 84 61 83 / 0 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 66 84 64 84 / 20 20 10 0 Dell City 61 82 59 83 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 65 88 64 88 / 20 20 10 0 Loma Linda 59 77 58 77 / 20 10 10 0 Fabens 64 86 63 86 / 20 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 63 83 62 83 / 20 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 64 84 62 83 / 20 10 10 0 Jornada Range 59 82 59 82 / 20 10 10 0 Hatch 59 85 59 84 / 20 10 10 0 Columbus 62 86 62 85 / 10 20 10 0 Orogrande 59 81 58 81 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 50 69 47 70 / 10 20 10 0 Mescalero 48 71 47 70 / 0 20 10 0 Timberon 49 67 46 67 / 10 20 10 0 Winston 51 74 49 73 / 0 10 10 0 Hillsboro 59 80 58 80 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 57 81 57 81 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 49 76 47 74 / 30 20 10 0 Hurley 55 79 55 78 / 10 20 10 0 Cliff 57 84 56 83 / 20 20 10 0 Mule Creek 55 81 55 80 / 10 20 10 0 Faywood 57 78 57 77 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 60 85 59 84 / 0 10 10 0 Hachita 59 83 59 83 / 0 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 60 84 59 84 / 0 10 10 0 Cloverdale 59 80 58 80 / 0 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.