KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Windy, dry, and possibly dusty this afternoon. Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

- The weather will be more benign Monday through Wednesday, as we sit between upper level low pressure passages. Temperatures seasonably warm, conditions continue very dry, winds lighter, but still breezy afternoons.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Active Spring-like pattern will continue today with very windy conditions expected areawide.

Upper level longwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will rotate a lobe of energy extending southward across western CONUS, that will eventually phase the upper level system over the Great Basin and Central Rockies regions. This phasing will induce strong lee-side surface low development over SE Colorado and NE New Mexico. The ~990mb surface low will extend surface troughing across New Mexico with tightly packed gradient across the area. Thus, windy conditions will overlay the Borderland Region on Sunday. Winds will be 20-35 mph sustained with gusts to 45-60 mph. On top of the Critical Fire Weather conditions in place, a Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning will be in effect across the majority of the forecast area. The High Wind Warning is in effect for the Sacramento Mountains and the San Andreas/Organ/Franklin Mountain east slopes, including central and east El Paso. Again, blowing dust will be likely across the desert lowlands with a Blowing Dust Advisory in effect through the early evening timeframe.

Weak upper level troughing across the Great Basin will keep conditions breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Daily high temperatures through the middle of next week will range right around to slightly above the seasonal average.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon and evening/overnight hours areawide, sustained at 25-35 knots with gusts to 40-50 knots possible. An AWW is in effect for KELP due to the winds. Winds will slowly decrease after sunset. Gusty winds may prevail at KELP through the overnight due to downsloping off the Franklin Mountains. Skies will be generally FEW to SCT through the period with instances of SKC. Blowing dust will be likely through the afternoon across the desert lowlands, confidence in magnitude is low but expected reductions to VIS between 19-23Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions expected today with Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Min RH values today will drop into the teens to low 20s areawide. Very windy conditions will resume this afternoon and evening with southwest winds of 25-40 mph sustained with gusts to 50-60 mph. Smoke ventilation rates will be excellent each afternoon.

For the first half of next week, weak upper level troughing over the Great Basin will promote breezy winds with critical afternoon RH values on Monday and Tuesday.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 48 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 34 56 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 46 79 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 69 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 45 81 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 41 77 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 83 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 89 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 76 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 86 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 49 81 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 79 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 46 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 50 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 69 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 67 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 38 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 33 70 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 43 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 41 79 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 69 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 73 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 75 39 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 36 71 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 73 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 43 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 43 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 81 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 42 74 45 78 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

Flood Watch until noon MDT today for Western El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.