KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Breezy and dry on today. Then windy, dry, and possibly dusty on Sunday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the area on both days.

- The weather will be more benign Monday through Wednesday, as we sit between upper level low pressure passages. Temperatures seasonably warm, conditions continue very dry, Winds lighter, but still breezy afternoons.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Active Spring-like pattern will continue with breezy to windy conditions expected areawide through the weekend. Upper level system will come onshore across the Central California Coast today. In response, the associated upper level jet will begin to overlay the Desert Southwest, promoting lee-side surface low development over Northeastern New Mexico. Said sub-1000mb surface low will lead to surface troughing across New Mexico with winds of 15-25 mph sustained and gusts up to 40 mph across the area. On top of the Critical Fire Weather conditions, isolated areas of blowing dust will be possible.

For Sunday, upper level longwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will rotate a lobe of energy extending southward across western CONUS, that will eventually phase with the aforementioned upper level system over the Great Basin and Central Rockies regions. This phasing will induce strong lee-side surface low development over SE Colorado and NE New Mexico. The ~990mb surface low will extend surface troughing across New Mexico with tightly packed gradient across the area. Thus, windy conditions will overlay the Borderland Region on Sunday. Winds will be 20-35 mph sustained with gusts to 45- 55 mph. On top of the Critical Fire Weather conditions in place, a Wind Advisory will be in effect across the majority of the forecast area. Again, blowing dust will likely be a issued across the desert lowlands Sunday afternoon.

Weak upper level troughing across the Great Basin will keep conditions breezy on Monday and Tuesday. Daily high temperatures through the middle of next week will range right around to slightly above the seasonal average.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Breezy to windy conditions expected today with winds becoming 13-18 knots with gusts to 23-28 knots out of the W/SW. Winds will slowly decrease after sunset, becoming 10-15 knots during the overnight timeframe. Windy conditions resume on Sunday with winds of 20-30 knots sustained and gusts to 40-45 knots possible out of the SW. An AWW will be issued for KELP for Sunday, the product will be issued shortly. Skies will be SCT-BKN at 20-25 kft through the day, becoming FEW-SCT at 25 kft during the overnight timeframe. Isolated instances of BLDU will be possible this afternoon, but confidence is low so not mention in TAF. Better confidence in BLDU for Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Critical fire weather conditions expected through the weekend with Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions on Monday and Tuesday. Min RH values today and Sunday will drop into the teens areawide, with slight increase on Sunday. However, windy conditions can be expected with afternoon wind gusts up to 40 mph on Saturday and 45-55 mph on Sunday. Smoke ventilation rates will be excellent each afternoon.

For the first half of next week, weak upper level troughing over the Great Basin will promote breezy winds with critical afternoon RH values on Monday and Tuesday.

Thereafter, model guidance and their respected ensemble suites are coming into more and more agreement, with regard to an upper level system bringing in increased moisture and precipitation chances to the area on Thursday and Friday this next week. Confidence remains low to medium as details need to be ironed out over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 61 88 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 51 82 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 83 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 80 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 70 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 83 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 77 41 79 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 86 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 89 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 94 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 81 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 58 91 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 54 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 85 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 82 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 53 85 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 56 86 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 84 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 72 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 45 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 69 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 41 69 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 80 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 69 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 75 38 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 47 76 38 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 70 35 71 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 47 75 41 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 80 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 74 42 75 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

Wind Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Western El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.