textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

- Dry weather today with seasonal temperatures for late September. Lowland highs in the mid 80s.

- Moisture pulled up from tropical remnants in northern Mexico will bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to New Mexico and West Texas Monday night through Wednesday morning. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding, especially over locations that have already received heavy rain in recent weeks.

- Drier weather expected later in the week as the monsoon season comes to a rapid end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Sep 26 2026

For Sunday, dry weather will continue. Temperatures will run right near normal for late-September, with lowland highs in the mid-80s. Plenty of high cloud coverage will be a precursor to the strong moisture advection coming our way.

Two weather features to focus on in the short term are the upper low currently centered off the Oregon coast to our north, and Hurricane Polo spinning over the eastern Pacific to our south. Tropical steering pattern is favorable for Polo to drift north toward Baja California next few days, eventually latching onto the stronger mid-latitude jet flow next week and dissipating as it moves northeast into Sonora/Chihuahua.

Monday will feature a rapid moisture increase locally, thanks to the approaching tropical remnants. Pacific low aloft will make a southeast dive down to the Colorado River Valley on Monday, forced by a strengthening 75-knot jet streak on its backside. Veering of mid-level winds to the south ahead of this system will pull in deep, tropically-sourced moisture into southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Precipitable water values, measured at just 0.7" this evening (00Z KEPZ RAOB), will spike to 1.5-1.6" Monday evening. This may break seasonal moisture records for El Paso, and is easily 3 to 4 standard deviations higher than usual for the end of the monsoon season. This moisture-rich atmosphere, combined with PVA and increasing diffluent flow aloft, will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide starting as early as Monday afternoon.

Good confidence in rain for all local zones Monday night through Wednesday morning as the upper low pulls up tropical moisture like a fire hose into New Mexico and West Texas. 48-hour rainfall forecasts suggest widespread totals ranging from 1.00-2.00". NBM guidance backs this up. Stronger storms and training (or multiple rounds) of rain showers over the same areas will lead to localized 3-4". Soil saturation is very high right now, so rain will lead to rapid runoff and flash flooding quickly. A Moderate (Level 3 of 4) Risk of flash flooding is in place almost area-wide for Tuesday. Of particular concern for me will be the Sacramento Mountains, which have already had an above-normal precipitation season and significant flooding over the past two weeks. Current plan is to issue a Flood Watch, collaborated with neighboring WFOs, on Sunday in advance of this event. WFO El Paso will be liberal with flood warnings in areas with recent heavy rains if needed Tuesday-Wednesday.

Both GFS and ECMWF global models show a track of the upper low progressing across central NM on Wednesday. Rain showers will slowly decrease in coverage Wednesday morning, likely becoming dry by Wednesday evening.

Once all this action passes, it looks like a fairly "boring" weather pattern for the start of October. Strengthening upper high over the U.S. Southwest will usher in a much-needed break from rainfall. Temperatures will be cool for this time of year, with lowland highs lingering in the upper 70s the rest of the week ahead.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. SCT-BKN200-250 pass overhead today, lowering tonight to 150. FEW CU at 080 develop in the afternoon with no showers or storms expected. Winds AOB 8kts mostly from S-SE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Sun Sep 27 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through midweek. Mainly dry today with increasing mid-high clouds. A shower or storm may develop in the NM Bootheel during the afternoon. Light winds today, shifting west-southwest this afternoon over area mtns. Temperatures will be near normal today. Scattered to widespread showers and storms move in Monday afternoon associated with Polo, continuing through Tuesday night with a high risk of flash flooding area- wide. Flood threat will be most pronounced north of the I-10 corridor. Saturated soils from recent rainfall will elevate the flood risk. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are additional hazards. Temperatures fall to below normal for midweek.

Min RHs will be 25-40% today, rising to 60-90% on Tue. Vent rates range from poor to good through Mon, then mostly poor on Tue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 84 64 77 / 0 30 90 90 Sierra Blanca 62 83 61 77 / 0 20 80 70 Las Cruces 62 81 61 72 / 0 40 90 90 Alamogordo 62 80 60 73 / 0 30 100 100 Cloudcroft 48 62 47 54 / 0 30 100 100 Truth or Consequences 61 79 61 70 / 0 50 100 100 Silver City 59 76 57 67 / 10 70 90 100 Deming 63 84 61 74 / 10 50 90 100 Lordsburg 65 83 62 73 / 10 50 90 100 West El Paso Metro 65 85 64 77 / 0 30 90 90 Dell City 61 85 64 79 / 0 20 90 90 Fort Hancock 67 91 68 84 / 10 30 90 80 Loma Linda 63 79 61 72 / 0 30 90 90 Fabens 65 88 65 81 / 0 30 90 90 Santa Teresa 63 83 63 75 / 0 30 90 90 White Sands HQ 66 82 64 74 / 0 40 100 90 Jornada Range 63 82 61 73 / 0 40 100 100 Hatch 64 84 63 75 / 0 40 90 100 Columbus 65 85 65 77 / 10 50 90 90 Orogrande 61 80 61 72 / 0 30 100 90 Mayhill 53 75 54 67 / 0 30 90 100 Mescalero 52 73 52 64 / 0 30 100 100 Timberon 52 70 51 62 / 0 30 100 100 Winston 55 73 54 65 / 10 70 100 100 Hillsboro 63 80 60 72 / 10 60 100 100 Spaceport 61 80 59 71 / 0 50 100 100 Lake Roberts 55 75 53 66 / 10 70 100 100 Hurley 59 78 57 70 / 10 60 90 100 Cliff 62 82 61 72 / 20 60 90 100 Mule Creek 61 78 59 68 / 20 60 100 100 Faywood 62 78 59 69 / 10 60 90 100 Animas 65 85 63 74 / 10 60 90 100 Hachita 64 84 62 74 / 10 60 80 100 Antelope Wells 64 84 63 75 / 10 60 80 90 Cloverdale 62 81 61 69 / 10 60 90 100

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.