textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 958 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Storm chances increase a bit for Monday, again favoring western areas. Mostly dry for midweek, then turning more active into the weekend.

- Temperatures stay above normal for most areas this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Western areas will remain favored for storms tonight and on Monday as the monsoon high shifts east over the mid-MS River Valley. CAMs show isolated to scattered convection redeveloping overnight along the AZ-NM border before pushing north by Mon AM. PWs increase a bit on Mon area-wide (1-1.1" for KELP) as the heavy rain threat persists W of the Divide, mainly in the Bootheel. There is some forcing tomorrow with a shortwave moving into the Four Corners within SW flow aloft. Isolated showers and storms are forecast during the afternoon for much of the lowlands, including El Paso and Las Cruces, with drier conditions out east. A sfc convergence zone looks to develop in the evening near the RGV (better SE flow to the east and W flow to the west). This could spark scattered showers and storms Mon night as reflected by several HRRR runs, progressing northward before fizzling Tue AM.

Global models are in agreement with the upper high focusing over the Carolinas/TN Valley through midweek and stretching across the southern Plains, keeping much of the monsoonal moisture south and west of us. Low mtn storm chances are forecast from Tue onward as the lowlands stay mainly dry. Western areas will be favored for storms and isolated heavy rainfall through midweek.

The high looks to centralize over the central/southern Plains into next weekend and reinvigorate the moisture plume. Areas to the west appear best set up for storm chances and heavy rainfall to end the period. For much of the area, PWs look to be slightly above normal for next weekend with potential introduction of tropical moisture from a Pacific system. The placement of the high will determine how much moisture gets scooped up into the region, but better rain chances overall are anticipated.

Temps will be steady through the week with highs 4-8 degrees above normal. Lowland highs of 95-100F are forecast each day with slight cooling on Tue behind the shortwave. Winds remain light through the week mainly from the W.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Isolated TS develop in the afternoon, favoring KDMN and KTCS with ~20% chances. Confidence is too low for any TS mention in TAFs. Additional showers and storms may develop late in the period from KELP to KTCS. Gusts to 30kts from outflows are possible after 20z. Otherwise, winds AOB 10kts from S and W.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Upper level ridging will slowly nudge eastwards as a trough digs in over the west coast. This will send some increasing moisture out way, but with variable precipitation chances that favor southwestern New Mexico. Temperatures will ease up a bit, falling to near normal west of the Divide, and about 5 degrees above normal closer to the Rio Grande. The ridge will attempt to rebuild on Wednesday, but precip chances look better late in the week as troughing nudges in from the west again.

Min RH values will around 15 percent in the lowlands, and 20 to 25 percent in the higher elevations this afternoon and again on Monday. Expect slight improvements through the week ahead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 100 73 97 / 0 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 68 95 67 94 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 70 98 68 96 / 10 20 20 0 Alamogordo 71 99 69 96 / 20 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 54 75 52 72 / 20 30 20 40 Truth or Consequences 71 96 70 93 / 20 20 20 20 Silver City 63 88 61 86 / 20 20 20 10 Deming 68 98 67 96 / 20 20 20 0 Lordsburg 68 92 65 92 / 30 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 77 99 75 97 / 10 20 20 0 Dell City 70 99 70 98 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 73 102 72 100 / 0 20 10 10 Loma Linda 69 92 67 90 / 0 20 20 0 Fabens 72 100 71 98 / 0 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 72 98 71 95 / 10 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 75 99 73 96 / 10 20 20 10 Jornada Range 70 98 69 95 / 10 20 20 10 Hatch 72 101 70 99 / 10 20 20 10 Columbus 72 99 71 96 / 10 20 20 10 Orogrande 70 97 68 94 / 0 20 20 0 Mayhill 59 87 57 85 / 10 30 20 50 Mescalero 57 86 55 84 / 20 30 20 40 Timberon 56 85 54 82 / 10 30 20 20 Winston 59 86 57 84 / 20 30 30 40 Hillsboro 69 95 67 93 / 20 20 20 20 Spaceport 69 97 68 95 / 20 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 57 86 55 85 / 20 20 20 10 Hurley 64 91 61 90 / 20 20 20 0 Cliff 66 93 64 93 / 20 20 20 0 Mule Creek 63 87 60 88 / 40 30 20 0 Faywood 67 91 64 89 / 20 20 20 10 Animas 67 92 65 91 / 30 40 40 10 Hachita 67 93 65 91 / 20 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 65 92 64 90 / 30 40 40 30 Cloverdale 62 85 61 83 / 50 50 40 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.