textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms in mountain areas starting Tuesday persisting through Thursday. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains but mainly west of the Continental Divide.

- By Wednesday, widespread triple digit temperatures return to the lowlands with 100-105 degrees common through the end of the week.

- Widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend with somewhat cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are winding down for the night with only a few pockets of rain left. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out for any location for the next couple of hours, but we should be nearly precip free by Midnight. Aloft, an UL ridge covers about the middle third of the CONUS with a center over Central/Northern NM. Dry air is to our northeast, and the position of the high will pull that drier air southwestward. Thunderstorm chances will shift west, limited to the Gila, Sacramento Mountains, and lowlands west of the Divide. Highs will also start creeping upward, nearing Heat Advisory criteria for Thursday and Friday for parts of the lowlands. The position of the high will keep this pattern in place though at least Thursday.

Beginning Friday, the UL high will shift from just to our west, across the US-Mex border, to the Northern High Plains or Rockies, centered over WY by Sunday. This will allow moisture to push northward starting late Friday, leading to increasing rain and storm chances while afternoon highs decrease from the loss of heights aloft and increase in cloud coverage. With the increased moisture, rain and storm chances will increase as well. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a inverted trough rotating around the high. The GFS rotates it into NM while the ECMWF stalls it over the Southern Plains. For now the NBM has to low to moderate POPs painted across the lowlands through the weekend (20-40%) during mainly the evening hours.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected with variable skies overnight becoming FEW-SCT150/250 in the morning through the rest of the period. ISO SHRA/TSRA are expected again west of the Divide and across the Gila. Although a SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out for TCS or DMN, the more likely impacts would be gusty outflow winds with some BLDU. Otherwise, outside of storms, expect mainly light winds from the east or southeast, topping out around 10 knots in the afternoon with a few gusts up to 20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Temperatures for the lowlands will be warming back up into the 100-105 range with 80s and 90s for the mountains as an elongated upper high dominates the pattern. Most thunderstorm activity will remain focused along and west of the Divide. RH's will be mainly in the teens with a few 20s at the highest elevations through Friday. As the upper high moves into the CO/WY area, easterly flow develops and helps bring some Gulf moisture to the region and increased thunderstorm chances areawide. Winds will remain on the light side except near thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 99 75 100 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 65 94 65 95 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 97 68 98 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 96 69 98 / 10 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 51 73 52 74 / 20 20 10 30 Truth or Consequences 69 96 70 98 / 10 0 10 10 Silver City 64 90 64 92 / 40 30 10 20 Deming 67 99 68 101 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 69 98 69 99 / 30 20 20 20 West El Paso Metro 75 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 97 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 100 72 101 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 67 91 67 92 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 73 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 97 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 98 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 97 70 98 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 68 100 70 102 / 20 0 10 10 Columbus 73 100 73 101 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 96 68 97 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 84 56 86 / 10 10 0 40 Mescalero 54 84 55 86 / 20 20 10 30 Timberon 53 82 53 82 / 10 10 0 20 Winston 59 88 59 90 / 10 30 10 50 Hillsboro 67 94 68 96 / 20 10 10 10 Spaceport 66 96 66 97 / 20 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 57 91 58 93 / 20 60 10 40 Hurley 63 93 64 95 / 40 20 10 20 Cliff 64 97 64 98 / 30 50 20 20 Mule Creek 63 94 63 95 / 20 60 20 10 Faywood 65 92 65 94 / 30 10 10 20 Animas 69 99 68 99 / 40 20 20 20 Hachita 68 97 68 99 / 30 20 10 20 Antelope Wells 69 97 69 99 / 20 20 20 20 Cloverdale 66 92 65 93 / 30 20 20 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.