textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Thunderstorm chances favor eastern areas on Tuesday, diminishing for Wednesday, then ramp up again late in the week.

- Temperatures will cool to near normal in Southwestern New Mexico through the week. They will hover about 5 degrees above normal near and east of the Rio Grande with lowland highs staying below 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

More unsettled weather is expected into the overnight and Tue as the moisture plume is nudged eastward from AZ by a shortwave trough moving through the Rockies. Upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of a jet will allow for some lift tonight and convective redevelopment, generally along the RGV. Scattered showers and storms are modeled through midnight according to recent HRRR runs, favoring Sierra and Dona Ana counties. The activity progresses N and dissipates early Tue AM with isolated heavy rainfall.

For Tue afternoon, the moisture plume is over NM (PWs around 1.1") as western areas see more stable air and 500-1000 J/kg CAPE favor E of the RGV. Isolated to scattered convection is modeled during the afternoon for eastern areas while the rest of the lowlands are mainly dry. The highest threat of heavy rainfall will be in the Sacs with slow storm motion to the NE. For Wed, the upper ridge stretches across the southern High Plains, capping storms' ability to fire. Only the high terrain and NM Bootheel have low storm chances Wed afternoon.

Thu-Sat look more active as subtropical moisture from the Gulf of CA is scooped northward by the longwave trough over the Northwest. PWs climb to about 1.3" (75th-90th %-ile for early Sep) for the lowlands with any embedded shortwaves/vort maxes providing more lift than just orographic. Areas W of the RGV look best set up for heavy rainfall according to the LREF where moisture levels are higher. Scattered storms are forecast each day later this week as a result of the more favorable monsoon set-up. The upper high looks to drift further west from the Central US to the southern High Plains early next week based on global ensemble means. This would push much of the moisture into AZ and lower storm chances to end the period.

Temps will be steady through the weekend with highs a few degrees above normal E of the Divide. The increased clouds and rain chances should lower temps a bit Thu-Sat. Winds remain light through midweek mainly from the W.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Not much lightning is present in the ongoing activity to start the period, so VCSH has been added for a couple hours. KELP is likely to stay dry with better rain chances for the other terminals through midnight. The showers lift N and dissipate after 8z. Isolated TS redevelop after 18z, mainly E of KELP with low confidence. Gusty W-NW winds linger for KDMN and KLRU a bit longer, then subsiding to AOB 8kts, shifting more SW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Thunderstorm chances increase today, especially in SW New Mexico, and shifting into areas east of the Rio Grande for Tuesday. Thunderstorm coverage looks to dip on Wednesday, but return Thursday into the weekend, favoring the higher terrain and southwestern New Mexico. Wetting rains will boost RH values overall, and temperatures will trend closer to normal west of the Divide, and around 5 degrees above normal to the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 97 73 98 / 20 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 66 93 67 94 / 20 20 20 0 Las Cruces 68 95 68 96 / 30 10 10 0 Alamogordo 69 95 69 96 / 20 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 52 71 51 72 / 20 30 20 30 Truth or Consequences 70 93 70 94 / 30 20 20 0 Silver City 61 86 61 88 / 20 10 10 10 Deming 68 95 67 96 / 30 10 10 0 Lordsburg 65 92 67 93 / 20 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 75 96 75 97 / 20 20 10 0 Dell City 70 97 70 98 / 20 20 20 0 Fort Hancock 72 100 73 101 / 20 20 20 0 Loma Linda 67 90 68 91 / 20 20 20 0 Fabens 71 97 72 98 / 20 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 71 95 71 96 / 20 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 95 72 97 / 30 20 20 0 Jornada Range 69 95 68 96 / 30 20 20 0 Hatch 70 98 69 99 / 30 10 10 0 Columbus 72 96 72 97 / 30 10 10 0 Orogrande 68 94 68 95 / 20 20 20 0 Mayhill 56 84 56 85 / 20 50 20 40 Mescalero 55 82 55 83 / 30 30 20 20 Timberon 54 81 54 82 / 20 30 20 20 Winston 57 84 57 85 / 30 40 20 10 Hillsboro 67 93 66 94 / 30 10 10 10 Spaceport 68 94 67 96 / 30 10 20 0 Lake Roberts 56 85 55 86 / 20 10 10 10 Hurley 62 90 62 91 / 20 10 10 10 Cliff 64 93 63 95 / 20 10 10 10 Mule Creek 60 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 10 Faywood 65 89 65 90 / 30 10 10 0 Animas 65 91 67 92 / 50 10 10 20 Hachita 65 91 67 92 / 30 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 64 90 66 91 / 50 20 20 20 Cloverdale 61 84 63 85 / 70 20 20 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.