textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 954 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Temperatures will continue to warm up on Thursday; some moisture moving into the east could produce a few late-day showers.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Friday into early Saturday, especially near and east of the Rio Grande.

- Dry and windy conditions are expected starting Sunday through Tuesday, with blowing dust likely. Fire conditions becoming at least elevated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

WV imagery showing flat ridge over the CWA at this time. Meanwhile a small upper low over the central Gulf of California will continue to slowly track east across northern Mexico. Expect most of the area to remain dry and quite warm Thursday. However models continue to show the aforementioned upper low to turn low level winds around to southeast Thursday afternoon, allowing some moisture advection into the eastern CWA. HRRR also shows outflow from west Texas storms pushing more moisture to the eastern CWA, though that would be in the later evening. Thus low POPs are probably warranted for Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Less enamored with POPS for the Gila, but models have been pretty steady on that so will leave in grids.

By Friday, Pacific upper low central California will bring a much broader south/southeast flow across our area. Though it looks like the actual dry-line will remain just east of our area, quite a bit of moisture does advect in, bringing decent chances for thunderstorms into much of the CWA, with best chances from the RG Valley east. Model instability parameters fairly modest but could see a few strong thunderstorms toward Fri evening. Same story for Saturday, though moisture begins to drift east. Upper low lifts out over the Great Basin with associated trough reaching western New Mexico late in the afternoon. Decent chance of thunderstorms again, but am concerned about most models not named NAM12 bringing the drying in from the west. Models actually show respectable instability Saturday, so if low level moisture remains, we could see a few strong storms approaching severe.

Next Pacific upper low quickly moves into central California Sunday. This rapidly brings large dry slot over the CWA, ending any chance of rain. This begins a procession of upper lows/vort centers across to the northwest of our area through Tuesday. Thus dry conditions to prevail and each upper low passage over the Great Basin/northern New Mexico will bring windy conditions each day Sunday through Tuesday. Depending on how much rain the area gets Fri/Sat, the Sunday through Tuesday period will see at least elevated fire conditions, possibly approaching critical. A little bit of March we rarely saw--scheduled for April!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds this morning, shifting S-SW in the afternoon to near 10kts. Mainly SKC gives way to CU in the afternoon with bases around 10kft. Isolated showers develop over high terrain, drifting towards KTCS from the west, but would be very light. No rain expected for the other TAF sites today. CU dissipate in the evening as cirrus return late in the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 512 AM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low for the rest of the week, then becoming more of a hazard next week. Modest S-SW winds for today with a slight chance of sprinkles in the high terrain this afternoon. Moisture increases for Friday from the southeast with scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Gusty and erratic outflow winds to 40 mph are possible. Dry and breezy southwest flow pushes storm chances east on Saturday with elevated fire wx to the west. Increasing threat of fire weather Sunday through Tuesday due to dry and breezy to windy conditions. Widespread near-critical fire wx conditions is forecast each day with low confidence in how fuels will respond to potential rainfall late this week. RFTIs are forecast to be in the 3-5 range, so any Fire Wx products will be dependent on rainfall. ERCs in FWZ113 are most likely to improve. Warm temperatures through Friday, then falling closer to near normal this weekend.

Min RHs range from 10-20% today, then 15-35% through Sat, 8-20% Sun-Tue. Ventilation will be good to very good today, then mostly excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 86 58 83 / 0 20 60 30 Sierra Blanca 51 82 52 77 / 10 20 70 60 Las Cruces 53 83 53 80 / 0 20 50 30 Alamogordo 52 85 49 79 / 10 40 70 50 Cloudcroft 41 62 40 57 / 10 50 80 70 Truth or Consequences 54 82 56 79 / 10 30 40 30 Silver City 50 75 48 72 / 0 20 30 20 Deming 53 85 53 82 / 0 20 30 20 Lordsburg 51 82 49 78 / 0 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 61 85 60 82 / 0 20 60 30 Dell City 51 85 53 81 / 10 20 60 60 Fort Hancock 56 90 56 85 / 10 20 70 50 Loma Linda 55 80 53 76 / 10 30 60 40 Fabens 58 89 57 84 / 10 20 60 40 Santa Teresa 56 85 56 81 / 0 20 60 20 White Sands HQ 59 85 58 81 / 10 20 60 30 Jornada Range 49 84 48 80 / 10 20 50 30 Hatch 49 86 51 83 / 10 20 50 20 Columbus 56 86 56 83 / 0 20 30 20 Orogrande 52 84 51 79 / 10 30 60 40 Mayhill 44 74 43 70 / 10 50 80 70 Mescalero 43 72 42 68 / 10 50 80 70 Timberon 43 70 43 65 / 10 40 70 60 Winston 42 74 41 71 / 10 30 30 30 Hillsboro 53 80 51 78 / 0 20 40 20 Spaceport 47 82 46 79 / 10 20 50 30 Lake Roberts 38 76 39 71 / 0 20 30 20 Hurley 48 78 47 75 / 0 20 30 20 Cliff 37 82 39 78 / 0 10 20 20 Mule Creek 34 78 34 74 / 0 10 10 10 Faywood 52 78 49 75 / 0 20 30 20 Animas 52 83 50 79 / 0 20 20 20 Hachita 51 83 49 79 / 0 20 20 20 Antelope Wells 53 83 51 79 / 0 20 10 10 Cloverdale 53 77 52 73 / 0 10 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.