textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 455 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Moisture from tropical remnants of Polo will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to the Borderland tonight. Storms will be capable of heavy rain, gusty winds, and flash flooding, especially over locations that have already received heavy rain in recent weeks.

- New rain amounts around 2 inches across much of southern New Mexico, with localized areas receiving 3 to 4 inches. A Flood Watch is in effect into Wednesday morning.

- Wind Advisory in effect Tuesday through Wednesday morning focusing over far west Texas and Otero county.

- Drier weather expected Thursday through the weekend as the moisture is pushed eastward. Temperatures remaining cool into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Starting to see the beginning portions of our heavy rain event coming together early this afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms ongoing but will just expand in coverage after around 6PM tonight. Tonight we'll start pushing in a lot of tropical moisture. For reference, PW values look to increase upwards of 1.6" by late tonight. This would be a record breaking moisture surge as the 90th percentile this time of year should be around 1" with a maximum reading of 1.3". Thankfully storms will be moving at a good clip with storm motions at 20-30 mph but with heavy rainfall that occurred not even a week ago will only add to the flood threat. Storms will be moving but extreme moisture content in the air will allow storms to be efficient rain makers with the potential for storms to run over an area multiple times leading to flash flooding.

All locations are expected to see rain during the overnight hours tonight and rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday before tapering off after sunset tomorrow. In response to the approaching tropical remnants coupled with the upper low, winds will become noticeably breezy. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph expected with stronger wind up to 60 mph. Heavy rainfall coupled with breezy winds may knock over trees. Bulk shear values will be plentiful at 40-50kt Tuesday afternoon which may give some organization to thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be the main impact but even a tornado or two will be possible. Hurricanes are notorious for helping give spin in the atmosphere and models are suggesting some curved hodographs and helicity. SPC has added a 2 percent tornado risk encompassing Hudspeth, El Paso, and Otero counties. If a tornado does occur, it will be weak and short lived.

Showers largely move out of the area late Tuesday and early Wednesday morning. The center of the upper low will cross west to east over central NM through the day Wednesday. Low end rain showers possible in the Gila region and Sacramento Mtns with even more isolated showers elsewhere through the day Wednesday. The upper low slowly tries to lift out of the area but lingering energy looks to stay behind. A backdoor cold front looks to try and push in late Thursday and early Friday but will only shave off a few degrees from Thursdays highs compared to Friday. Some breezier east winds possible with the front. Much of the weekend looks mostly dry but more rain chances possible early next week?

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 455 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

BKN-OVC100 OVC200. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms most of tonight area wide with OVC060 -SHRA and widely scattered OVC050CB 3-5SM +SHRA/+TSRA. Winds generally variable AOB 10 knots, though gusts to 35 knots possible near storms. Breezier winds Tuesday afternoon from the Rio Grande Valley east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Today's the beginning of another round of heavy rain. Rain will be seen all across the forecast area this evening and especially into the overnight hours. Continued rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday but will start tapering off late Tuesday and into Wednesday. One last quick round of showers expected Wednesday morning over the Gila region and then spreading to more areawide showers during the day Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and into the weekend.

Min RHS Tuesday will be 60-80% in the lowlands and 90-100% in the mountains. Drier conditions Wednesday will dip RHs to 45-50% in the lowlands and 70-85% in the mountains. RHs will stay in the 35-45% range across the lowlands and 60-70% in the mountains Thursday and through the weekend.

20 foot winds will become breezy and gusty tomorrow mostly for far west TX and Otero counties. Winds will be out of the south at 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph possible. High terrain areas will stay quite breezy Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Winds will be breezy across the area Wednesday afternoon out of the west at 15-20 mph. A front looks to push into the area late Thursday and into early Friday bringing breezy east winds to the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 79 60 74 / 80 100 60 10 Sierra Blanca 62 80 59 72 / 90 70 60 20 Las Cruces 63 73 55 70 / 90 100 70 10 Alamogordo 63 75 56 71 / 90 100 60 40 Cloudcroft 49 56 42 50 / 90 100 80 50 Truth or Consequences 62 70 54 70 / 90 100 80 20 Silver City 58 65 49 63 / 100 100 70 50 Deming 62 74 53 72 / 90 90 70 10 Lordsburg 62 72 53 69 / 90 90 80 20 West El Paso Metro 66 79 60 74 / 90 100 50 10 Dell City 65 82 61 75 / 80 90 60 20 Fort Hancock 68 88 64 81 / 90 80 50 20 Loma Linda 61 74 55 67 / 90 90 60 20 Fabens 66 84 61 77 / 90 90 60 20 Santa Teresa 64 77 58 72 / 80 100 60 10 White Sands HQ 64 76 58 72 / 80 90 60 10 Jornada Range 63 73 55 71 / 90 90 80 10 Hatch 64 75 55 73 / 100 90 80 10 Columbus 64 76 57 74 / 80 80 40 10 Orogrande 63 75 56 70 / 90 80 50 10 Mayhill 55 67 48 64 / 90 100 80 20 Mescalero 54 66 47 60 / 100 100 80 60 Timberon 52 63 47 58 / 100 100 60 40 Winston 55 64 46 64 / 100 100 80 20 Hillsboro 60 71 53 71 / 100 100 80 10 Spaceport 61 71 53 70 / 90 90 80 10 Lake Roberts 54 64 46 62 / 100 100 70 50 Hurley 58 68 50 66 / 90 100 70 30 Cliff 61 71 54 69 / 100 100 90 60 Mule Creek 57 66 50 65 / 90 90 90 60 Faywood 60 68 51 66 / 90 100 70 10 Animas 63 74 54 72 / 80 100 70 10 Hachita 61 73 53 71 / 80 90 50 10 Antelope Wells 62 74 54 72 / 80 90 60 10 Cloverdale 59 68 52 67 / 90 100 80 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Wind Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.