textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1029 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Continued isolated thunderstorms Thursday, with temperatures several degrees below normal.

- Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances lower early next week will mostly dry conditions expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Main upper high persists over the upper Midwest, with the old cut- off low still over south central Texas. Inverted trough extending northward from the low over far eastern New Mexico. This has formed a nice summer-time Rex Block version. Drier air has filtered in over much of the CWA all the way south to the old deformation zone extending from far south Texas west to upper low over the Baja. Main sub-tropical moisture plume continues along the western and northern margins of the Rex Block; from the Sonoran Desert up to Montana and eastward across the top of the high. PWs had dropped to around .8-.9 inches this afternoon. However a few thunderstorms were still able to form over the Tularosa Basin this afternoon and further west over Sierra and Grant Counties this evening.

Thursday...looks similar to today. Cut-off low drifts further west, over the Permian Basin, but drier channel still looks to sit over much of the CWA, with deeper moisture over far western New Mexico and Arizona. Still expect isolated thunderstorms across the area. Strong outflow winds main threat again, though DCAPES look much lower than today.

Friday through Sunday...upper low very slowly approaches the area, only reaching the Big Bend area Saturday night. Both GFS/ECMWF then mostly fill low in over northern Mexico Sunday or merge it with low further south. The "dry-slot" over the area slowly fills in as PWs increase back to around 1.0-1.3 inches (up to 130% of normal). Expect increase in thunderstorm coverage and also heavy rainfall/flash flood threat. Sunday could be a transition day depending on the models, as they begin to diverge. The GFS moves the upper low-associated trough west over Arizona along with much of the moisture. Hence rain chances are on the decrease. The ECMWF on the other hand, keeps the moisture over our CWA, perhaps with the aid of another trough rotating up from the Big Bend. This would mean a continuation Sunday of active thunderstorms.

Monday and Tuesday...model difference continues, as the GFS increases dry easterly flow south of the upper high. Very little chance of rain with GFS solution, while ECMWF keeps higher moisture and good chances of rain continue. Main pivot point is the position/orientation of the upper high; both models keep upper high over the central Plains-the GFS orients the high east-west with dry easterly flow over our area. The ECMWF orients the high north-south keeping the moisture and rain over our area. NBM for now looks to be towing the ECMWF solution.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Generally VFR conditions with SCT-BKN090 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN070CB 5SM -TSRA west of the RG Valley. Thunderstorms should be dissipated by 08Z. Gusty winds of 25 knots near storms, otherwise surface winds variable AOB 7 knots. Winds increasing after 18Z to east 10-15 knots. Isolated thunderstorms developing again after 18Z over the mountains and spreading to the lowlands after 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the weekend. Isolated showers and storms develop this afternoon, mainly over FWZ110 with some heavy rainfall possible. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph are possible as storms progress to the south-southwest into the evening. Winds will be 5-10 mph from the east- southeast today. Temperatures will be about the same as yesterday with good to very good ventilation. The drier air erodes Thu/Fri as an upper-level trough moves in from the east. Storm coverage increases later this week with a risk of flash flooding area-wide, especially over recent burn scars and out west. Saturday looks to have the highest heavy rain potential. Much of the region should see wetting rains by the end of the weekend. Temperatures stay below normal.

Min RHs range from 20-40% today, rising to 25-50% by Fri. Vent rates will be fair to very good today, then poor to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 93 73 94 / 0 20 20 30 Sierra Blanca 60 88 63 89 / 0 30 10 40 Las Cruces 66 91 67 92 / 10 20 20 30 Alamogordo 64 90 66 91 / 10 40 20 50 Cloudcroft 49 70 49 69 / 10 50 20 80 Truth or Consequences 69 90 69 91 / 40 20 20 40 Silver City 62 82 60 83 / 30 70 40 60 Deming 66 93 65 93 / 10 20 20 40 Lordsburg 68 90 65 88 / 10 60 40 50 West El Paso Metro 73 92 74 92 / 0 20 20 30 Dell City 64 90 66 91 / 0 20 10 40 Fort Hancock 68 94 70 95 / 0 20 10 40 Loma Linda 63 87 65 87 / 0 20 10 50 Fabens 69 95 71 95 / 0 20 20 30 Santa Teresa 69 92 70 92 / 10 20 20 30 White Sands HQ 72 92 73 93 / 10 20 20 40 Jornada Range 67 91 68 92 / 10 20 20 40 Hatch 68 94 68 95 / 20 20 20 40 Columbus 71 93 70 93 / 10 20 20 40 Orogrande 65 90 67 90 / 0 20 10 40 Mayhill 53 79 53 79 / 0 30 20 80 Mescalero 53 80 53 79 / 10 50 20 80 Timberon 51 77 51 76 / 10 40 20 70 Winston 59 81 57 82 / 70 70 40 70 Hillsboro 65 88 64 89 / 50 40 40 50 Spaceport 64 90 65 91 / 20 30 20 40 Lake Roberts 60 83 57 84 / 50 80 40 70 Hurley 62 85 60 86 / 30 50 30 50 Cliff 64 88 62 88 / 20 70 40 60 Mule Creek 62 85 60 84 / 30 60 50 60 Faywood 64 85 62 86 / 30 50 30 40 Animas 69 91 65 88 / 10 70 40 60 Hachita 66 91 63 89 / 10 50 40 50 Antelope Wells 67 91 65 88 / 0 60 30 70 Cloverdale 64 84 62 81 / 0 80 50 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.