textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1122 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Warm temperatures and afternoon breezes today.

- A cold front will push in from the north late tonight, bringing gusty overnight winds and also introducing seasonable to slightly below normal temperatures for this weekend and the start of next week.

- Some moisture pushing in from the east may bring showers to the area Sunday afternoon and evening with low chances, 20%, lingering for mainly the Gila on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Little to no change from previous forecast cycles. The final lobe of energy associated with the longwave trough across central CONUS will sweep across the Rockies. Westerly flow regime will dominate once again, warm afternoon temperatures and low-end breezy winds (typical for this time of year) can be expected. The aforementioned upper level lobe of energy will push a quasi Pacific/side door front in from the north tonight/early Saturday morning timeframe. Winds will become gusty along and behind the front.

By Saturday, winds will continue to veer, becoming predominately east to southeasterly. A east/southeasterly low-level jet will then advect anomalous moisture in from the east. ECMWF/GFS/LREF and their respected ensemble suites show PW values 150-250 percent of normal (for this time of the year) overlaying the area starting on Saturday and lasting into early next. That said, slight (20-40%) chances of rain will continue in the forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

Temperatures through the period will remain above average through Saturday, becoming slightly below average behind the aforementioned sidedoor front. Temperatures will return to back above average by middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies through the afternoon will be SKC to FEW250, with winds becoming breezy at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots through the evening. A stout side-door cold front will move in from the north with FROPA around 06Z. Winds along and behind the front will be gusty with wind gusts to 30-35 knots possible. KELP will experience near AWW criteria between 06-10Z with gusty winds expected. An AWW will not be issued at this time due to low confidence in meeting criteria and timing. Skies this evening and overnight will be SCT-BKN at 20-25kft.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns will exist today across portions of the forecast area. Dry westerly zonal flow will dominate the upper level flow regime, promoting near-critical to critical afternoon Min RH values and low-end breezy winds. Mostly all areas will be at or below 15% for Min RH, with the exception for elevations above 8000 feet. Temperatures this afternoon remain above the seasonal average.

A quasi Pacific/side door front will push in from the north late tonight and into early Saturday morning. Winds will become gusty along and behind frontal passage, out of the north, then will veer to the east through the day on Saturday remaining gusty along west slopes. Temperature will trend down this each day this weekend. Near critical to critical RH values on Saturday, with values increasing to 20-40 percent on Sunday. Slight chances of rain will enter the forecast on Sunday as well, these slight/low-end chances of rain will last through Tuesday

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 53 75 52 67 / 0 0 10 30 Sierra Blanca 48 68 46 58 / 0 0 20 40 Las Cruces 46 73 49 65 / 0 0 10 20 Alamogordo 43 74 46 70 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 30 52 32 46 / 0 0 10 30 Truth or Consequences 45 72 49 70 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 41 68 45 63 / 0 0 10 20 Deming 48 77 49 69 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 42 74 50 69 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 54 75 54 65 / 0 0 10 30 Dell City 48 72 46 62 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Hancock 50 77 52 67 / 0 0 20 40 Loma Linda 49 67 46 58 / 0 0 10 40 Fabens 52 77 52 67 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Teresa 48 74 51 64 / 0 0 10 30 White Sands HQ 52 74 53 66 / 0 0 10 20 Jornada Range 42 73 46 67 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 46 76 49 70 / 0 0 10 20 Columbus 51 77 54 69 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 45 72 49 65 / 0 0 10 30 Mayhill 34 59 35 56 / 0 0 10 30 Mescalero 33 62 34 58 / 0 0 0 30 Timberon 35 59 36 52 / 0 0 10 30 Winston 30 65 36 62 / 0 0 0 30 Hillsboro 43 71 46 66 / 0 0 0 20 Spaceport 41 73 44 68 / 0 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 34 70 41 65 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 40 71 43 65 / 0 0 0 20 Cliff 37 76 46 73 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 37 72 45 71 / 0 0 0 20 Faywood 44 70 46 63 / 0 0 10 20 Animas 45 75 50 71 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 45 74 49 68 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 46 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 48 70 49 70 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.