textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Dry and seasonal temperatures through Thursday, with breezy afternoon winds.

- A strong backdoor cold front is set to arrive Thursday night, bringing gusty winds and winter-like temperatures into the weekend. High Wind Watch is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes.

- Freezing temperatures over area mountains may lead to a light wintry mix Saturday morning.

- Mostly cloudy skies behind the cold front, with scattered rain showers Friday and Saturday, favoring west Texas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The upper-level low moving across the Four Corners will keep conditions dry and breezy today through tomorrow afternoon. Precipitation will be to our east as a trailing front keeps moisture out of our area. Winds today will be from the west- southwest at 10-20 mph, and gusts up to 30 mph in Sierra County and northern Otero County. Winds will shift to the north overnight into tomorrow as a high pressure system spills into the northern Plains, decreasing wind speeds to 5-15 mph during the day. Temperatures today and through tomorrow afternoon will be at or around seasonal averages. These pleasant conditions belie a dramatic change ahead.

A second upper-level low will break off from the predominant low moving across the Plains as a ridge starts to dig into the trough in the Pacific Northwest. This new low will bring a potent cold front from the northeast Thursday evening, bringing strong northeasterly winds to the region, especially out east. Thursday evening through Friday morning will be the riskiest period for winds, as sustained wind speeds from 25 to 35 mph will be felt across the region (though Las Cruces up to Holloman AFB will be in a pocket of lighter winds at this time). Wind gusts in the High Wind Watch zones could reach 60 mph or higher. Many of the zones in the High Wind Watch will likely be upgraded to a High Wind Warning later today, especially for El Paso, Hudspeth, and Otero Counties. Other zones like Dona Ana County could see a Wind Advisory at least. Recent rains should keep blowing dust concerns low, but it cannot be ruled out due to the breezy wind gusts.

Temperatures on Friday and Saturday will struggle to even reach 60F on Friday as the cold front plummets temperatures to 20-25 degrees below average. The Black Range and Sacramento Mountains could feel more like winter than fall on Friday and are expected to see their first freeze of the season. As moisture from the second low pulls in moisture from the south, some high terrain locales may even see a mix of rain and snow early Saturday morning if the moisture is advected far enough north. Should any snow fall in the high terrain, little to no accumulation is expected due to ground temperatures being too warm. Outside of the high terrain, some isolated to scattered showers are possible in the morning hours on Friday in the eastern reaches of Hudspeth County. Rain chances diminish on Saturday and temperatures begin their climb back to normal on Sunday as the cutoff low off the Baja coast gets picked up by an upper-level trough moving north of us. Another Pacific low is visible on both the extended GFS and ECMWF runs early next week, which could bring an increase in showers and storms by midweek next week, though confidence in impacts is currently low.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for the entire period. Aside from some late morning FEW060-080, ceilings will be largely unlimited at all four TAF sites. Some low end gusty winds from the west will be present for a few hours in the afternoon before dropping off by sunset.

A strong cold front will arrive from the northeast tomorrow evening. Winds will shift to the northeast and become quite strong. Winds will be at least 08020G30KT with gusts up to 50 knots possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Limited fire weather concerns today and tomorrow. Min RHs today will be above 20%, and for Thursday, lowland Min RHs will be in the mid-to-upper teens and up to 30% in the mountains. Low end gusty winds from the west likely by this afternoon and the north on Thursday.

A strong backdoor cold front (moving east to west) will move into the region Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east in the evening hours and increase drastically. The strongest winds will be west of the area mountains as well as Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph likely for most of the region, with high-end wind gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains. The strong winds will continue into Friday before diminishing slightly on Saturday. Precipitation chances will be low on Friday and Saturday, favoring out east in West Texas as well as the area mountains. The high mountains may even see a wintry mix early Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 80 53 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 80 45 55 / 0 0 20 30 Las Cruces 51 75 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 77 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 58 27 39 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 72 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 71 45 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 75 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 76 51 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 79 56 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 81 51 61 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 62 87 54 64 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 53 75 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 84 54 63 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 54 78 53 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 78 52 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 76 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 77 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 78 54 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 76 50 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 69 34 48 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 70 34 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 67 33 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 66 39 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 71 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 73 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 71 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 73 45 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 44 77 51 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 73 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 71 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 77 53 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 77 51 61 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 47 73 48 57 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.