textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Continued isolated thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday, with temperatures several degrees below normal.

- Increase in storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a low threat of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026

WV imagery shows upper high over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska/Kansas with ridge down across most of New Mexico. Old cut- off low over eastern Texas. Deepest moisture continues to be over northern Mexico and far SW New Mexico, with main sub-tropical jet even further west. Despite decent moisture levels (PWs 1.0-1.3 inches), upper ridging and mid-level warming (500mb temperatures -4 to -5) appear to be inhibiting much of our convection. Still isolated, unorganized thunderstorms likely for a few more hours this evening.

Tuesday through Thursday...cut-off low continues to retrograde back west with an inverted trough extending out of its northwest quadrant. Though model QPFs don't reflect it, I think we could see a slight uptick in activity from today, especially Wednesday and Thursday, as the upper ridge moves further west and we come under broad, weak cyclonic rotation of the upper low. 500mb temps also cool a degree or two.

Friday through Sunday...upper low drifts over the CWA by Saturday and then down over the Sonoran Desert Sunday. Expect bigger uptick in convection as we should be done with the mid-level warming/capping. Low over us Saturday should increase large scale lift, and PWs approach 1.50 inches (150% of normal). Thus flood potential increases, as should thunderstorm coverage. Sunday may trend down with storm activity as the upper low moves well south of us.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the forecast period. Storm chances are slim (~10%) for all terminals this afternoon. Lighter winds today with afternoon gusts to 15-20kts from E-SE, otherwise AOB 8kts. Any storm chances should end by sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 517 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the rest of the week. For today, isolated showers and storms develop with better coverage over the Gila, producing some heavy rainfall. Most areas should stay dry today as winds will be lighter than yesterday from the east. Relative humidities will be above critical thresholds with good to very good ventilation this afternoon. Storm chances increase later in the week as an upper trough moves in from the east. There will be more of an area-wide flash flood threat Fri-Sun due to the nearby disturbance, but focusing west of the RGV and FWZ110. High rain rates and frequent lightning are likely from the stronger storms. Temperatures stay below normal through the weekend.

Min RHs range from 20-45% through Thu, then 30-60%. Vent rates will be good to very good today, falling to poor to good by Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 71 92 71 92 / 10 10 0 10 Sierra Blanca 60 85 60 85 / 0 10 10 30 Las Cruces 66 90 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 Alamogordo 64 88 63 88 / 0 30 20 40 Cloudcroft 49 69 47 67 / 10 30 10 60 Truth or Consequences 70 89 69 88 / 20 30 30 40 Silver City 60 82 61 81 / 20 50 40 70 Deming 65 91 65 92 / 10 10 20 20 Lordsburg 66 89 66 88 / 20 20 20 50 West El Paso Metro 72 91 72 90 / 10 10 0 10 Dell City 64 89 63 89 / 0 10 0 20 Fort Hancock 68 92 68 92 / 0 10 10 30 Loma Linda 63 84 62 84 / 10 10 0 10 Fabens 68 93 68 93 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 68 90 68 89 / 10 10 0 10 White Sands HQ 72 91 71 90 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 67 90 66 89 / 10 10 10 20 Hatch 68 93 67 92 / 10 10 20 20 Columbus 70 91 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 Orogrande 66 89 64 88 / 10 10 10 20 Mayhill 53 78 51 77 / 10 30 10 50 Mescalero 53 79 51 77 / 10 30 10 60 Timberon 51 76 48 75 / 0 20 10 60 Winston 59 82 57 79 / 20 50 50 70 Hillsboro 65 87 65 86 / 30 20 30 50 Spaceport 66 89 64 88 / 10 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 59 84 57 82 / 30 70 50 80 Hurley 62 85 61 84 / 20 40 30 60 Cliff 63 88 63 87 / 30 50 40 70 Mule Creek 62 84 61 83 / 40 50 40 80 Faywood 63 85 63 84 / 20 30 30 50 Animas 66 90 67 89 / 20 10 20 40 Hachita 64 89 65 89 / 10 10 20 20 Antelope Wells 65 89 66 89 / 20 10 10 30 Cloverdale 63 84 63 83 / 20 10 10 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.