textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Saturday with strong wind gusts and blowing dust over portions of Southwest New Mexico.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday and Friday from 100 to 104.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday into early Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High pressure over the Desert Southwest is maintaining a standard summertime pattern of very warm temperatures and isolated mainly mountain based thunderstorms in the afternoon and evenings. This pattern will persist into the weekend as the center of the high pressure area moves to the Four Corners region by Saturday. Moisture needed to fuel thundergstorm development in the region remains limited with precipitable water values hovering around an inch over the lowlands, which is the minimal amount needed to generate isolated thunderstorms with orographic lift and day time heating this afternoon and early evening. Very warm temperatures near and above 100 degrees will occur across the lowlands this afternoon and again on Friday and Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria, but it will still be very hot outside.

With available moisture sitting mostly at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, these storms will be high based at around 8000 feet AGL, producing light spotty rainfall of a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch. Dry and hot conditions at the surface will set up a potential for strong wind gusts and blowing dust from storms. Portions of the SW New Mexico bootheel will be especially impacted by strong outflow winds moving south from thunderstorms developing over mountains of the southern Gila Region this afternoon. There is a potential for reduced visibility from wind gusts over the Lordsburg Plays this afternoon and early evening. The weather pattern will likely repeat Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon with isolated mainly mountain based thunderstorms producing spotty rain and strong wind gusts and possible blowing dust haboob.

By Sunday the center of the dome of high pressure will have drifted north over the Northern Plains, setting up a deep easterly flow pattern over the forecast area that will allow greater amounts of moisture into the region. Projected precipitable water amounts will rise to roughly 1.3 inches Sunday night into early Tuesday. The increased moisture will support a greater number of longer lived thunderstorms that will be capable of periods of moderate to heavy rainfall near storm cores. Cooler temperatures and increased cloudiness will also result from this pattern shift. The area of high pressure will expand later next week and transport a drier air mass into the region that will limit shower and thunderstorm development later next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mostly VFR conditions with FEW-SCT130-250. Winds will be light, topping out around 10 knots with occasional gust to 20 knots from the southeast for ELP and LRU this afternoon and west to northwest at DMN and TCS. ISO SHRA/TSRA are possible after 21z and throughout the evening. Main impact would be gusty winds and wind shifts from distant thunderstorm outflows. Blowing dust from outflows is also possible for area around KDMN to the AZ state line.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

We remain in a hot and somewhat dry pattern as minimum RH values in the lowland deserts drop into the teens this afternoon through Saturday. Prevailing winds will be light, generally less than 10 MPH. Enough moisture be around for scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms with gusty winds to 40 mph and isolated dry lightning the main concerns. Rain amounts will be light and spotty. Vent rates will range good to very good. This pattern changes little through Saturday, but by Sunday, moisture and Rh values will begin to increase while daytime temperatures decrease. There will be increased coverage of wetting rains and thunderstorms Sunday through early Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 104 77 103 / 10 10 20 10 Sierra Blanca 69 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 70 102 69 101 / 10 10 20 10 Alamogordo 74 101 73 100 / 10 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 55 78 54 77 / 20 50 10 60 Truth or Consequences 73 103 74 101 / 10 10 10 10 Silver City 65 95 65 94 / 20 60 20 40 Deming 69 104 69 103 / 10 20 30 10 Lordsburg 68 100 68 99 / 20 20 40 20 West El Paso Metro 77 103 76 102 / 10 10 20 10 Dell City 71 102 71 100 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 75 104 75 105 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 70 96 69 95 / 10 10 20 10 Fabens 75 104 74 104 / 10 10 20 10 Santa Teresa 73 102 72 101 / 10 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 78 103 77 102 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 73 103 72 101 / 10 10 20 10 Hatch 72 106 72 104 / 10 10 20 10 Columbus 75 104 74 103 / 10 20 30 10 Orogrande 71 101 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 59 90 59 87 / 10 50 10 40 Mescalero 59 90 58 89 / 20 40 10 60 Timberon 56 87 56 86 / 10 40 10 40 Winston 61 94 62 93 / 10 40 10 20 Hillsboro 70 100 71 99 / 10 20 20 10 Spaceport 69 102 69 101 / 10 10 20 10 Lake Roberts 59 96 59 96 / 20 60 20 60 Hurley 65 98 65 98 / 20 60 20 20 Cliff 65 101 66 101 / 20 40 20 40 Mule Creek 63 97 63 97 / 20 40 20 30 Faywood 66 97 66 97 / 10 40 20 10 Animas 69 100 68 99 / 40 20 50 20 Hachita 68 100 67 99 / 20 20 50 10 Antelope Wells 68 98 67 98 / 40 40 60 20 Cloverdale 64 91 63 91 / 60 30 60 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.