textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Storm chances increase a bit for Monday, again favoring western areas. Mostly dry for midweek, then turning more active into the weekend.

- Temperatures stay above normal for most areas this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Western areas will remain favored for storms tonight and on Monday as the monsoon high shifts east over the mid-MS River Valley. CAMs show isolated to scattered convection redeveloping overnight along the AZ-NM border before pushing north by Mon AM. PWs increase a bit on Mon area-wide (1-1.1" for KELP) as the heavy rain threat persists W of the Divide, mainly in the Bootheel. There is some forcing tomorrow with a shortwave moving into the Four Corners within SW flow aloft. Isolated showers and storms are forecast during the afternoon for much of the lowlands, including El Paso and Las Cruces, with drier conditions out east. A sfc convergence zone looks to develop in the evening near the RGV (better SE flow to the east and W flow to the west). This could spark scattered showers and storms Mon night as reflected by several HRRR runs, progressing northward before fizzling Tue AM.

Global models are in agreement with the upper high focusing over the Carolinas/TN Valley through midweek and stretching across the southern Plains, keeping much of the monsoonal moisture south and west of us. Low mtn storm chances are forecast from Tue onward as the lowlands stay mainly dry. Western areas will be favored for storms and isolated heavy rainfall through midweek.

The high looks to centralize over the central/southern Plains into next weekend and reinvigorate the moisture plume. Areas to the west appear best set up for storm chances and heavy rainfall to end the period. For much of the area, PWs look to be slightly above normal for next weekend with potential introduction of tropical moisture from a Pacific system. The placement of the high will determine how much moisture gets scooped up into the region, but better rain chances overall are anticipated.

Temps will be steady through the week with highs 4-8 degrees above normal. Lowland highs of 95-100F are forecast each day with slight cooling on Tue behind the shortwave. Winds remain light through the week mainly from the W.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will start popping up around mid-day today over the higher terrain. Few hours afterwards, isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible in the lowlands generally along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. KDMN and KTCS has the best shot to see a storm this afternoon, but KLRU could potentially see a storm too. Generally light winds outside of thunderstorm outflows, with some minor gusts to 15-20KT possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Storm chances will persist each afternoon with a focus over the area mountains and western NM. For today, expect scattered storms in the area mountains with isolated storms in the lowlands. Tuesday and Wednesday are looking drier with only isolated to scattered storms expected in the area mountains with hardly any activity in the lowlands. By Thursday and Friday, storms will still be focused over the area mountains with more isolated activity west of the Rio Grande. During this time, temperatures will stay 5-8 degrees above normal for this time of year coupled with light 20 foot winds each afternoon at 5-10 mph.

Min RH values will be 14-25% across the lowlands and 25-35% this afternoon. Tuesday and onward, min RHs will be 18-25% in the lowlands and 35-45% in the area mountains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 97 74 99 / 20 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 94 67 94 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 96 68 97 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 96 70 97 / 20 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 72 52 73 / 20 40 0 20 Truth or Consequences 70 93 70 94 / 20 20 0 0 Silver City 61 86 61 88 / 20 10 0 0 Deming 67 96 67 97 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 92 66 93 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 97 76 98 / 20 0 10 0 Dell City 70 98 71 99 / 10 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 72 100 74 101 / 10 10 10 0 Loma Linda 67 90 68 91 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 71 98 73 99 / 20 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 71 95 72 96 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 96 73 97 / 20 10 0 0 Jornada Range 69 95 69 96 / 20 10 0 0 Hatch 70 99 69 100 / 20 10 0 0 Columbus 71 96 73 97 / 20 10 0 0 Orogrande 68 94 68 95 / 20 0 10 0 Mayhill 57 85 57 85 / 20 50 0 30 Mescalero 55 84 56 84 / 20 40 0 10 Timberon 54 82 55 83 / 20 20 0 10 Winston 57 84 58 85 / 30 40 0 10 Hillsboro 67 93 66 94 / 20 20 0 10 Spaceport 68 95 67 96 / 20 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 55 85 55 86 / 20 10 0 10 Hurley 61 90 62 91 / 20 0 0 0 Cliff 64 93 64 95 / 20 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 88 61 90 / 20 0 0 0 Faywood 64 89 65 91 / 20 10 0 0 Animas 65 91 66 92 / 40 10 10 10 Hachita 65 91 66 92 / 30 10 0 10 Antelope Wells 64 90 65 91 / 40 30 20 10 Cloverdale 61 83 63 85 / 40 20 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.