textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1028 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

- Warm temperatures over the next couple days, with lowland highs in the 80s. This is slightly above normal for late October.

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night through Friday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

- The flood threat lingers for eastern areas this weekend before storm chances decrease early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1028 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A very active weather pattern will bring a widespread chance of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain to Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Thursday through Saturday. A deep moist southerly flow continues between a strong ridge of high pressure over central Texas and a deep low pressure system centered along the California coast. As the low pressure system begins to move inland. Scattered to numerous showers will occur over Arizona and western portions of New Mexico northward into the Great Basin and parts of Colorado. Favorable forcing and lift will interact with the moist unstable air mass to generate widespread thunderstorms across the local area in the afternoon and evening. The highest amount of activity will be concentrated in the Gila region and nearby areas mostly west of Rio Grande extending to the Arizona Border.

There is a a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for areas west of the Rio Grande on Thursday with possible large hail, strong wind gusts, and maybe a low probability short lived weak tornado. Widespread thunderstorms will also produce periods of heavy rain with a potential for flash flooding, especially in the Gila Region and nearby surrounding areas. A flash flood watch is in effect for that area from noon Thursday through 6am Friday morning. Potential rain amounts are between 1 and 2 inches with isolated higher amounts in the Gila Region.

The active weather pattern will continue on Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms over portions of south central New Mexico centered on the Rio Grande valley from El Paso north to Albuquerque. There will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. There will also be a chance of excessive rainfall with a potential for flooding.

A similar situation will develop on Saturday with additional excessive rainfall with a potential for flooding for areas generally east of the Rio Grande. Strong thunderstorms with large hail and strong winds will be also be possible.

The low pressure system and the moisture will lift out of the local area Sunday in to Monday with a return drier and calmer weather conditions for a few days. Long term outlook does have a chance of showers returning late next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1028 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to develop along the NM/AZ border through the overnight hours. Outflows from previous storms may reach KLRU and KELP shifting winds more from the west for a few hours.

Widespread thunderstorms will redevelop Thursday afternoon after 18Z that will likely impact KTCS, KDMN and KLRU with mvfr conditions due to reduced visibilities in heavy rain mixed with hail between 18Z and 00Z. Storms will continue over those sites into the evening. Thunderstorms will impact KELP later Thursday evening after 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead as min RHs stay above critical thresholds and 20 foot winds stay 5-10 mph each afternoon. Min RH values across the lowlands will be 30-50% each afternoon through early next week. Min RHs will be anywhere from 50- 80% in the area mountains each day. Continued rain chances each day.

Focus for storms Thursday will be along and west of the Rio Grande. Mostly areawide chances Friday, but drier air does push into far western locations Saturday dampening chances out that way, but elsewhere will still have good chances. Lingering storm chances exist for far west TX and Otero Co Sunday. Each day through Saturday and potentially into Sunday will feature a risk for flash flooding, hail, and severe wind gusts in the strongest storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 86 63 83 / 0 40 50 70 Sierra Blanca 58 82 58 80 / 0 0 10 50 Las Cruces 61 81 57 77 / 20 50 70 60 Alamogordo 59 82 59 80 / 0 20 30 80 Cloudcroft 45 62 45 59 / 0 10 30 90 Truth or Consequences 59 76 57 75 / 20 60 70 70 Silver City 57 71 51 69 / 40 90 100 50 Deming 61 81 55 77 / 20 60 80 40 Lordsburg 62 77 55 75 / 60 70 70 30 West El Paso Metro 68 85 64 82 / 0 40 60 70 Dell City 59 85 60 84 / 0 0 10 60 Fort Hancock 64 91 65 90 / 0 10 20 60 Loma Linda 58 79 58 77 / 0 20 20 70 Fabens 64 89 63 87 / 0 30 40 60 Santa Teresa 64 84 60 80 / 10 40 60 70 White Sands HQ 64 84 61 81 / 10 40 60 70 Jornada Range 61 81 57 78 / 10 50 70 70 Hatch 61 82 57 79 / 20 50 60 60 Columbus 64 84 59 80 / 20 50 70 40 Orogrande 60 82 58 80 / 0 20 30 80 Mayhill 50 72 50 70 / 0 10 20 90 Mescalero 50 73 49 70 / 0 10 30 90 Timberon 49 69 47 66 / 0 10 30 90 Winston 51 68 48 67 / 20 80 90 50 Hillsboro 60 75 54 74 / 20 70 80 60 Spaceport 59 78 55 75 / 20 50 70 70 Lake Roberts 54 70 48 69 / 40 90 100 50 Hurley 57 74 51 72 / 40 80 100 50 Cliff 59 77 55 75 / 70 90 100 60 Mule Creek 55 72 52 70 / 90 100 100 60 Faywood 59 74 53 71 / 30 80 90 60 Animas 61 80 56 78 / 50 60 50 20 Hachita 60 80 55 77 / 50 60 60 30 Antelope Wells 60 83 56 80 / 30 50 50 20 Cloverdale 58 77 54 73 / 30 50 40 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.