textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 419 AM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Dry with seasonable temperatures today and Friday.

- Increasing chances for light rain showers Friday afternoon and Saturday.

- Cooler temperatures for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 956 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Temperatures will drop through the rest of the night as the shortwave trough moves past New Mexico. Some lowland desert spots in the Tularosa and Jornada could fall into the upper 30s, though no new freeze areas are expected. High temperatures for Thursday will run about 2 to 5 degrees below average (upper 60s-low 70s), with the exception of the Lower Valley, which will run about 1 to 2 degrees above seasonal averages (mid to upper 70s). Winds will be generally from the north at 5 to 10 mph, and conditions will be relatively dry.

Temperatures will fall again on Friday, close to 4 to 6 degrees below average. A deep trough and weak southeasterly push or backdoor cold front will bring increasing chances for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday. The GFS has caught up with the ECMWF with cutting off the trough into a cutoff low and slowing it down over the region Friday night and into Saturday, increasing the QPF to around 0.1 for the lowlands. The next couple of runs should see the QPF increase, so we will need to keep watch for how heavy this rain event will be. PWATS at this time for Friday and Saturday are hovering around 0.6", so flooding is unlikely to be a risk, though it can't be ruled out if the QPF gets heavier. Dry weather returns on Sunday as an upper-level high moves into the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 419 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC. Increasing SCT150 SCT-BKN250 late this afternoon, with SCT080 BKN150 developing near the end of this period. Surface winds north/northwest AOB 7 knots becoming east/northeast 7-10 knots this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 419 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Dry with mild temperatures today. Chance of rain spreading in from the west Friday afternoon overnight into Saturday. Mild temperatures Friday cool down on Saturday with increasing east breezes. Temperatures remaining below normal Sunday into the start of next week. Min RHs will remain abnormally high for much of the period.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% today, increasing to 35-50% Friday and Saturday, then back into the 30s% Sunday. Mountains 25-40% today, increasing to 45-60% Friday and Saturday, then back to 35-50% Sunday. Vent rates mostly poor today and Friday, becoming fair- good Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 50 69 52 61 / 0 10 60 50 Sierra Blanca 44 66 46 56 / 0 10 60 60 Las Cruces 42 65 47 60 / 0 10 60 30 Alamogordo 41 64 46 62 / 0 10 50 30 Cloudcroft 28 50 35 44 / 0 20 60 40 Truth or Consequences 42 63 47 63 / 0 10 20 20 Silver City 40 59 42 58 / 0 20 40 20 Deming 43 64 46 61 / 0 20 50 30 Lordsburg 45 64 45 62 / 0 20 40 20 West El Paso Metro 52 68 54 61 / 0 20 60 50 Dell City 44 67 49 60 / 0 10 50 60 Fort Hancock 51 74 54 65 / 0 10 60 60 Loma Linda 44 61 45 53 / 0 10 60 50 Fabens 52 73 53 63 / 0 10 60 60 Santa Teresa 47 67 49 60 / 0 20 60 50 White Sands HQ 46 66 49 61 / 0 10 60 40 Jornada Range 42 65 47 62 / 0 10 60 30 Hatch 42 68 48 66 / 0 10 40 30 Columbus 47 68 49 62 / 0 20 60 50 Orogrande 43 65 47 60 / 0 10 70 40 Mayhill 31 59 38 52 / 0 20 70 40 Mescalero 33 61 38 56 / 0 20 60 40 Timberon 31 58 36 52 / 0 10 70 40 Winston 34 59 37 58 / 0 10 30 20 Hillsboro 42 63 44 61 / 0 10 40 30 Spaceport 40 65 46 63 / 0 10 30 30 Lake Roberts 28 62 39 62 / 0 20 30 20 Hurley 40 61 42 59 / 0 20 50 30 Cliff 31 67 43 67 / 0 20 30 10 Mule Creek 26 63 41 64 / 0 20 30 10 Faywood 42 60 44 58 / 0 20 50 30 Animas 45 66 46 61 / 0 20 50 30 Hachita 44 64 45 60 / 0 20 60 40 Antelope Wells 45 67 47 60 / 0 20 50 40 Cloverdale 46 64 46 57 / 0 20 50 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.