textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Continued isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Thursday, with temperatures several degrees below normal.

- Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances lower early next week will mostly dry conditions expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected for area TAF sites. FEW- SCT060 cumulus occurring at mid day with increased heating. Isolated showers and storms will develop in the afternoon, mostly over the mountains. KTCS will have the highest chance of being impacted by a thunderstorm late afternoon to early evening. Overall. storm chances are 10-20% today at the other sites. Storm motion will be to the S-SW. Gusty winds to 30kts are possible from the convection into the evening. Not confident enough to include TS mention for any TAF except for KTCS. Winds AOB 6kts with occasional gusts to mid- upper teens in afternoon from E-SE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the weekend. Isolated showers and storms develop this afternoon, mainly over FWZ110 with some heavy rainfall possible. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph are possible as storms progress to the south-southwest into the evening. Winds will be 5-10 mph from the east- southeast today. Temperatures will be about the same as yesterday with good to very good ventilation. The drier air erodes Thu/Fri as an upper- level trough moves in from the east. Storm coverage increases later this week with a risk of flash flooding area-wide, especially over recent burn scars and out west. Saturday looks to have the highest heavy rain potential. Much of the region should see wetting rains by the end of the weekend. Temperatures stay below normal.

Min RHs range from 20-40% today, rising to 25-50% by Fri. Vent rates will be fair to very good today, then poor to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 93 72 93 / 20 20 20 40 Sierra Blanca 60 86 62 86 / 10 30 20 50 Las Cruces 66 89 66 90 / 20 20 20 40 Alamogordo 64 88 65 89 / 20 20 20 60 Cloudcroft 47 67 48 67 / 10 30 40 90 Truth or Consequences 69 89 68 90 / 40 20 20 40 Silver City 62 81 60 82 / 30 60 30 70 Deming 66 92 64 93 / 20 30 30 40 Lordsburg 68 88 65 88 / 20 40 40 60 West El Paso Metro 73 91 73 92 / 20 20 20 40 Dell City 64 89 65 90 / 10 20 10 40 Fort Hancock 68 93 69 93 / 10 20 20 40 Loma Linda 63 85 64 85 / 20 30 20 60 Fabens 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 40 Santa Teresa 69 90 69 90 / 20 20 20 40 White Sands HQ 72 91 72 91 / 20 20 20 50 Jornada Range 67 90 67 90 / 20 20 20 50 Hatch 68 92 67 93 / 20 20 20 40 Columbus 71 92 70 93 / 20 30 30 40 Orogrande 65 89 66 89 / 20 20 20 50 Mayhill 51 78 52 78 / 10 30 30 90 Mescalero 51 79 52 78 / 10 40 30 80 Timberon 49 75 50 75 / 10 30 30 80 Winston 58 80 56 82 / 40 50 30 70 Hillsboro 65 86 64 88 / 40 40 20 60 Spaceport 64 89 64 90 / 20 20 20 50 Lake Roberts 56 82 55 83 / 50 70 30 80 Hurley 62 84 60 85 / 20 50 30 60 Cliff 64 87 62 88 / 30 50 30 70 Mule Creek 62 83 60 84 / 30 50 40 70 Faywood 64 84 62 85 / 20 40 30 50 Animas 69 89 65 87 / 10 60 30 70 Hachita 66 89 64 88 / 20 40 30 50 Antelope Wells 67 89 65 87 / 20 50 30 70 Cloverdale 64 82 62 80 / 10 60 50 80

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.