textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Thursday will see another round of thunderstorms that will move through the region with the best chances across southwest New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley. Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning for those areas.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue on Friday and Saturday, but the best chances for rain will shift east of the Rio Grande. Additional rain chances are expected next week as another surge of moisture arrives.

- Typical mid-September temperatures into the weekend, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Our weather pattern for Thursday, looks very similar to Wednesday, so to no one's surprise we will have very similar weather. Most of the short range models bring another round of evening showers and thunderstorms across the area. With the best chances for rain being a little west of the Rio Grande. The main players in the weather on Wednesday, which was a ridge over the southeast U.S. and a trough out west, don't move much on Thursday, so that is why the weather will be very similar. By Friday the trough to our west will begin to push east and that will shift the better rain chances east of the Rio Grande for Friday and Saturday evenings. Temperatures all three days will run at or just a little above average.

By Sunday the trough to our west will have moved to our east and sweep in lots of drier air behind it. So Sunday into Monday, looks like a pretty quiet couple of days with little chances for rain and high temperature near average. But the dry weather won't last, as another west coast trough approaches the region while at the same time an upper level ridge will still be to our east. Much like the last couple of days, the circulation around the ridge and trough will begin to draw up abundant moisture into our area. If the extended GFS is to be believed, we will have a threat for more heavy rain for Tuesday and Wednesday, while the extended ECMWF has good chances for rain, but is not as bullish on the potential for excessive heavy rain. High temperatures on next Tuesday and Wednesday will depend greatly on how much clouds and rain we see, but the GFS is hinting at some below average high temperatures. That would be a nice change after our long hot summer.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Scattered showers exit to the north early in the period, just E of KTCS. Occasional IFR/MVFR conditions possible for KTCS through sunrise due to recent rainfall and high humidity. Other three terminals should be dry through the day with cloud bases 080-100. More convection moves in from Mexico this evening with gusts to 30kts and heavy rain possible from 0-5z. VIS may drop to MVFR levels from the passing storms. Lingering showers overnight. Winds shift S-SE during the day with gusts to upper teens.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Low fire danger due to ongoing wetness and additional rain in the forecast. Light SE winds this afternoon, 5 to 10 mph leading to Good ventilation. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this evening and into the overnight hours. Localized flash flooding is the main threat, especially over burn scars, mountain canyons, and other flood-sensitive locations.

Rain chances will shift eastward Friday/Saturday, with chances decreasing across Gila NF and western NM. Risk of flooding will remain for Lincoln NF. This weekend shows a downtrend in storm coverage, with Sunday being the driest day of the forecast. Above normal precipitation looks to resume again next week, allowing ERCs to plummet and keeping fire danger very low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 93 69 91 / 50 10 40 30 Sierra Blanca 64 91 64 89 / 10 10 30 60 Las Cruces 65 90 63 88 / 60 20 30 20 Alamogordo 65 90 64 88 / 40 30 40 40 Cloudcroft 49 67 49 66 / 30 50 50 60 Truth or Consequences 65 84 62 86 / 80 40 20 20 Silver City 59 81 58 83 / 50 40 0 10 Deming 64 90 62 90 / 70 30 10 10 Lordsburg 65 87 64 89 / 40 10 10 10 West El Paso Metro 70 93 69 90 / 50 10 40 20 Dell City 67 94 66 91 / 10 10 40 50 Fort Hancock 71 99 71 97 / 20 10 40 50 Loma Linda 65 87 65 84 / 30 10 50 30 Fabens 69 96 69 93 / 40 10 50 30 Santa Teresa 67 91 66 89 / 60 10 30 20 White Sands HQ 70 91 69 90 / 50 30 40 30 Jornada Range 66 89 63 88 / 60 30 30 30 Hatch 66 90 63 90 / 70 30 30 10 Columbus 68 91 66 91 / 60 20 10 10 Orogrande 65 90 64 87 / 40 20 50 40 Mayhill 55 81 55 80 / 20 50 50 70 Mescalero 53 79 53 78 / 30 50 50 50 Timberon 53 77 53 75 / 30 40 50 50 Winston 55 76 53 79 / 70 60 10 30 Hillsboro 64 84 62 86 / 70 40 10 10 Spaceport 63 86 59 87 / 60 40 30 20 Lake Roberts 55 80 53 82 / 60 50 0 20 Hurley 60 82 58 85 / 60 40 0 10 Cliff 61 87 60 89 / 50 30 0 10 Mule Creek 60 84 59 85 / 30 20 0 10 Faywood 62 82 60 84 / 70 40 0 10 Animas 65 88 64 90 / 30 20 10 10 Hachita 64 87 62 89 / 50 20 10 10 Antelope Wells 64 88 64 90 / 50 30 10 20 Cloverdale 63 86 62 86 / 40 20 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.