textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 947 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- A brief stretch of drier weather through Wednesday before rain chances return Thursday through the weekend. A few storms will be capable of heavy rain and localized flooding. Halloween looks mostly dry.

- Typical temperatures for the end of October with lowland highs in the mid to upper 70s, becoming slightly cooler this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 947 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Flow aloft turns more SW for Wed, bringing moisture back into the region from the south. A few showers and storms look to develop in the afternoon over Hudspeth and the Otero Mesa. Gusts to 40 mph and brief downpours are possible during the afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for El Paso and SW New Mexico with light S-SW winds.

Moisture levels rise further for Thu as a shortwave trough pushes through NW Mexico. PWs climb towards 1" during the day, focusing over SE areas for rain chances and flash flood concerns. Scattered showers and isolated storms are forecast with repeated rounds of activity possible into the overnight. Isolated rain amounts of 1-2" are likely through Thu night, favoring E of the US 54 corridor. Most likely rainfall is 0.1-0.25". Gusty winds and small hail are possible as instability and shear will be low compared to what we saw last week with our severe event. The flood threat lowers as you go west. This system exits Fri AM with a weaker shortwave arriving behind it Fri night. This will bring more scattered showers mainly to western areas Fri afternoon and night. The flood threat shouldn't be as high late Fri with this disturbance with generally light rain rates expected.

Halloween dries out as a weak ridge translates over the region. Mostly cloudy skies are forecast for Sat with seasonal temps and light SW winds. Another Pacific trough moves into the Desert SW on Sun, bringing record moisture to the region. PWs are modeled to reach near 1.2", which is 3-4 std deviations above normal (0.45"). Rain chances and the flood threat will favor western areas and the high terrain through Sun night with lower chances for Texas. Breezy W winds also look to accompany the low Sun/Mon with cooler temps behind the Pacific front. A quiet, dry stretch of weather is modeled into the middle of next week as upper ridging builds from the west.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mainly SKC with FEW-SCT CU around KELP developing during the afternoon. S winds near 10kts for KTCS after 18z, otherwise AOB 6kts for all terminals. Isolated TS east of KELP in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 AM MDT Tue Oct 27 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast for the period as afternoon RH values stay well above critical thresholds with light winds. Temperatures will be seasonal. Little to no rain chances are forecast for today and tomorrow, but widespread showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for Thursday, Friday, and Sunday. Vent rates will range poor to good each afternoon. The weakest vent rates will be Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 10 30 Sierra Blanca 52 77 54 72 / 0 0 10 60 Las Cruces 52 77 53 75 / 0 0 10 40 Alamogordo 52 77 54 75 / 0 10 10 40 Cloudcroft 39 57 40 55 / 0 10 10 60 Truth or Consequences 48 77 49 74 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 47 72 48 71 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 51 79 52 77 / 0 0 0 40 Lordsburg 50 77 52 77 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 59 79 61 76 / 0 0 10 30 Dell City 53 77 55 75 / 0 10 10 30 Fort Hancock 59 85 60 80 / 0 10 10 50 Loma Linda 53 73 54 70 / 0 10 0 40 Fabens 57 82 59 79 / 0 0 10 30 Santa Teresa 55 78 57 76 / 0 0 10 30 White Sands HQ 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 10 40 Jornada Range 53 78 54 76 / 0 0 10 40 Hatch 52 81 54 79 / 0 0 10 50 Columbus 54 80 55 78 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 51 76 54 75 / 0 0 10 30 Mayhill 44 69 45 66 / 0 0 0 60 Mescalero 43 68 44 67 / 0 10 0 60 Timberon 41 65 43 64 / 0 10 10 40 Winston 40 70 42 68 / 0 0 0 20 Hillsboro 49 77 51 73 / 0 0 0 50 Spaceport 50 76 51 75 / 0 0 0 40 Lake Roberts 41 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 30 Hurley 46 75 46 74 / 0 0 0 30 Cliff 47 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 45 73 46 74 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 48 73 50 72 / 0 0 0 50 Animas 52 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 51 78 52 76 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 50 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 20 Cloverdale 50 73 51 74 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.