textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected for the Gila through Wednesday as very dry air moves in.

- Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A stagnant weather pattern is expected for much of the week with strong high pressure aloft over the Ohio Valley and troughing over the Northwest. In between these two features will be a subtropical moisture plume set up over eastern NM and west TX. Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances through Thu with best chances (20-30%) over Hudspeth County. Gusty outflows and blowing dust from the east will remain the primary hazards for the El Paso area, but with low impacts. Areas to the north and west stay dry and somewhat breezy into midweek under SW flow aloft. Very dry air pushes into western NM for Wed/Thu as weak shortwaves move through the Four Corners.

The moisture plume fizzles out late in the week as the upper high begins to re-establish near the Four Corners. The exact placement and strength of the high will determine what our storm chances will be, but area mountains should be favored. Most of the area should be dry and hot for the holiday weekend with highs climbing to near or above 100F for the lowlands. Outside of outflows, winds will be generally light into the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Mostly VFR conditions, with dry southwest flow for the New Mexico terminals. Showers and thunderstorms south and east of ELP will bring some outflow, potentially dusty, after 22 or 23Z, with a stray isolated thunderstorm possible (20 to 30 percent probability). Southeast outflow winds will also reach LRU after 02Z, though likely diminished in intensity.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 559 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026

A similar pattern will continue over the next several days, with drier southwest flow over western areas, and some influx of moisture and thunderstorm chances, especially east of the Rio Grande. Temperatures will also slowly start rising again Wednesday and through the weekend, and RH values will decrease over SW New Mexico again.

There are some signs of a pattern shift late this weekend or early next week, with the subtropical ridge drifting north of the area, and easterly flow aloft perhaps bringing in a disturbance and some additional moisture.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 97 73 98 / 20 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 64 90 65 90 / 70 20 10 30 Las Cruces 67 95 66 96 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 68 95 68 97 / 20 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 51 72 51 73 / 20 10 0 30 Truth or Consequences 67 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 66 98 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 95 73 96 / 20 10 0 0 Dell City 66 94 67 95 / 70 20 10 20 Fort Hancock 70 96 71 97 / 60 20 10 20 Loma Linda 66 89 66 90 / 50 10 0 10 Fabens 71 97 71 98 / 50 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 70 94 69 96 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 96 73 97 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 67 95 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 98 71 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 93 67 95 / 20 10 0 10 Mayhill 55 83 55 84 / 20 20 0 40 Mescalero 54 83 54 84 / 10 10 0 20 Timberon 52 80 52 81 / 20 10 10 20 Winston 56 87 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 64 93 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 54 88 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 61 91 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 94 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 63 91 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 95 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 95 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.