textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

- Drier and warmer today and Thursday. Lowland highs in the lower 80s.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday, especially east of the Rio Grande.

- Mainly dry conditions next week, with more typical springtime winds returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

WV imagery showing main upper low now over NE Texas. Wrap around secondary vort now over SE New Mexico. This feature brought a few thunderstorms across the northern counties early this evening, and this activity is now all but over. A short wave trough over NE New Mexico is bringing some shower activity down close to our CWA, but should remain north of the area overnight.

Short wave ridge builds in over the Desert Southwest Wednesday behind the exiting trough. This will give us mostly clear skies Wednesday and Thursday, with high temps rebounding back above normal. Models continue to show a weak short wave trough slicing through the base of the ridge across northern Mexico Thursday. Although this looks to allow southeast flow to develop at low levels (below 700 mb). Dew points do rise some, but I think they are overdoing it. Anyways, the models keep the QPF limited to the mountains and possibly Hudspeth Co., so low POPS not unreasonable for those areas.

Much broader area of mid-level southerly flow and low-level southeast flow develops Friday as the next Pacific low nears the central California coast. This creates a more serious push of moisture into the area. Though the dry-line may briefly intrude into the eastern CWA, it will likely remain just east of our area for the most part. Higher dewpoints of 40s to 50 will still advect into our area and allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop--with best chances east of the Cont Divide. Both GFS and NAM12 show respectable CAPE values Friday afternoon. Not much shear shown, but with those CAPE values, a few storms could still become strong to near severe. Both GFS/ECMWF lift the Pacific low up over the Great Basin Saturday, allowing clearing skies to unfold. Another Pacific low lifts up over the Great Basin, with yet another vort lifting up near the Four Corners Tuesday. This procession of lows will allow afternoon winds to increase noticeably Saturday through Monday. IF, Friday does not supply decent rainfall, then the Saturday through Monday period could bring fire conditions back to elevated to near-critical with gusty winds and lowering humidity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VMC through forecast period under light west flow aloft. Skies beginning SKC, then FEW-SCT110 cumulus after 19Z this afternoon. No precipitation expected across S NM or W TX. Surface winds light and variable this morning, followed by 190-230 at 04-08 knots this evening. Light wind again tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Drier conditions today, with midday RH falling to 15-25%. Winds will be very light, keeping fire danger low along with recent wetness. A few hours of Good ventilation this afternoon, with transport to the NE. Similar weather conditions for Thursday with SSW wind 5 to 10 mph. Low (10-20%) chance of rain showers over LNF Thursday afternoon.

Moisture intrusion out of the southeast begins on Friday, allowing RH to increase again and bringing a good chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms Friday/Saturday along and east of the Rio Grande valley. Best chance for LNF, providing further wetting precipitation and lowering ERCs for the time being.

Drier again Sunday into early next week, along with increasing winds. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph combined with RH 15-25% will lead to Elevated fire weather conditions. Any previous lightning starts could flare up this timeframe.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 85 59 85 / 0 10 10 30 Sierra Blanca 50 80 52 81 / 0 30 10 30 Las Cruces 51 82 54 82 / 0 10 10 20 Alamogordo 50 84 50 84 / 0 20 10 30 Cloudcroft 39 61 41 61 / 0 30 10 40 Truth or Consequences 53 82 55 82 / 0 20 10 30 Silver City 49 77 50 74 / 0 10 0 20 Deming 51 86 53 84 / 0 10 10 20 Lordsburg 50 84 50 81 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 59 85 60 84 / 0 10 10 30 Dell City 48 85 50 84 / 0 10 0 20 Fort Hancock 53 89 56 89 / 0 20 10 30 Loma Linda 53 79 55 79 / 0 10 10 30 Fabens 54 87 57 87 / 0 10 10 30 Santa Teresa 53 85 56 83 / 0 10 10 20 White Sands HQ 57 85 59 84 / 0 10 10 30 Jornada Range 48 84 48 83 / 0 10 10 20 Hatch 48 87 49 86 / 0 10 10 20 Columbus 54 87 56 85 / 0 0 0 20 Orogrande 49 83 51 83 / 0 10 0 30 Mayhill 42 73 43 73 / 0 30 10 40 Mescalero 42 72 43 71 / 0 30 10 50 Timberon 42 69 44 69 / 0 20 10 40 Winston 40 74 41 74 / 0 30 10 30 Hillsboro 52 82 53 80 / 0 10 10 20 Spaceport 46 83 47 82 / 0 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 44 77 42 75 / 0 20 0 20 Hurley 46 80 48 77 / 0 10 0 20 Cliff 46 84 43 82 / 0 10 0 20 Mule Creek 46 80 40 77 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 50 80 51 77 / 0 10 0 20 Animas 51 85 52 82 / 0 10 0 10 Hachita 49 85 50 82 / 0 10 0 20 Antelope Wells 52 84 53 82 / 10 10 0 20 Cloverdale 53 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.