textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Saturday with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-104. Temperatures dip below triple digits Sunday through midweek due to excess moisture and storms.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday into early Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High pressure will shift east slightly closer to the area on Friday before shifting to the Four Corners on Saturday. High pressure then pushes northward over the northern Plains and Rockies then expands and strengthens Sunday. This will allow for east flow at the upper levels and will help flush in some tropical moisture. Expect daily thunderstorm chances focusing over the area mountains with more isolated activity in the lowlands. Monday and Tuesday the high pressure will flatten over a good portion of the northern CONUS allowing for a good tap of moisture to push in during this time. PW values will be above average during this time with values of 1.2- 1.3" which will add to the flooding threat with storms and may also add to the coverage of thunderstorms across the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Calm and quiet overnight with clearing of storms as we progress through the night. Another round of thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the biggest hazards. All terminals will have a chance to see a storm tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1056 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

We remain in a hot and somewhat dry pattern as minimum RH values in the lowland deserts drop into the teens this afternoon through Saturday. Prevailing winds will be light, generally less than 10 MPH. Enough moisture be around for scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms with gusty winds to 40 mph and isolated dry lightning the main concerns. Rain amounts will be light and spotty. Vent rates will range good to very good. This pattern changes little through Saturday, but by Sunday, moisture and Rh values will begin to increase while daytime temperatures decrease. There will be increased coverage of wetting rains and thunderstorms Sunday through early Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 102 77 102 / 10 10 20 0 Sierra Blanca 69 97 68 96 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 70 101 69 100 / 10 20 20 0 Alamogordo 74 100 72 99 / 0 20 10 40 Cloudcroft 55 77 54 76 / 10 50 10 50 Truth or Consequences 73 102 73 100 / 10 20 10 10 Silver City 65 93 64 93 / 10 60 20 40 Deming 69 103 68 101 / 10 20 20 10 Lordsburg 68 99 68 98 / 30 30 30 20 West El Paso Metro 77 101 76 100 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 71 101 71 99 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 75 103 75 103 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 70 94 69 94 / 10 10 20 0 Fabens 75 103 74 102 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 72 99 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 78 101 77 100 / 10 20 20 10 Jornada Range 73 101 72 100 / 10 20 30 10 Hatch 72 104 72 103 / 10 20 30 10 Columbus 75 103 73 102 / 10 30 40 0 Orogrande 71 99 71 99 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 59 88 59 86 / 20 40 10 30 Mescalero 59 89 57 87 / 10 40 10 50 Timberon 56 85 56 85 / 10 40 10 30 Winston 61 93 62 92 / 10 30 20 10 Hillsboro 70 99 70 97 / 10 30 20 20 Spaceport 69 101 69 100 / 10 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 59 95 59 95 / 10 60 20 60 Hurley 65 97 64 96 / 10 60 20 30 Cliff 65 99 65 99 / 20 50 20 40 Mule Creek 63 96 63 95 / 20 30 20 40 Faywood 66 96 66 95 / 10 40 20 30 Animas 69 99 68 98 / 30 40 40 20 Hachita 68 99 66 98 / 20 30 40 10 Antelope Wells 68 97 66 96 / 40 50 60 10 Cloverdale 64 90 63 90 / 70 50 60 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.