textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 340 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday.

- Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding across Southwest New Mexico, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo Counties.

- Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday with temperatures remaining seasonable.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A slug of moisture will meet up with an upper trough and will bring breezy to very breezy conditions and precipitation chances Sunday. Anomalous moisture will still be present across the area with PWs of around 0.9"-1.1". Plenty of shear will be at play as well (0-6km shear of 50-70kt). Storm chances begin in the Gila region and western areas bordering AZ in the late afternoon (~3/4PM) and will push eastward through the evening hours Sunday. Most recent CAMs show a line of storms initially as it gets into the CWA but then struggles as it nears the Rio Grande Valley. This would make sense as this trough and it's associated pacific front pushes towards El Paso, the sun sets and capping will start to build up and may just transition to more showery activity after dark. CAPE is the most uncertain in this forecast. Models continue to suggest afternoon CAPEs will be best in far west TX and S. Otero Co. with lower CAPEs out west where the front will reach first.

The SPC has placed portions of our area in a Marginal risk for severe storms Sunday with a focus for damaging wind gusts from storms. In addition, the Gila region and portions of northern Hidalgo Co. are in a Slight risk (Level 2/4) for excessive rainfall with storms. A Marginal risk (Level 1/4) covers the Sacramento Mtns, NM Bootheel, Sierra Co. and portions of Luna Co. The Gila region, Black Range, and northern Hidalgo are in a Flood Watch currently. Storms will be moving fast but there will be concern for training storms causing flash flooding.

Storms exit Monday morning in the earlier morning hours, around sunrise. Lingering showers possible in the remaining morning hours but much drier air will push in right behind the front leaving a nice and dry day across the area on Monday but will be a bit breezy like Sunday will be. This nice, quiet, and dry weather will persist through the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 340 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

SCT-BKN0880 BKN150 BKN-OVC250. Developing after 18Z west of Deming with the cold front...scattered BKN060 -SHRA with isolated OVC050CB -TSRA. These conditions will spread east with the front, reaching the Rio Grande Valley around 00Z and continuing east after. Surface winds southwest 15-23G38 knots ahead of the front and west 10-15G30 knots behind the front after sunset. A few thunderstorms could enhance these winds with gusts to 50+ knots possible. Showers/storms should be done by around 08Z in the east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Gusty winds today and Monday, will meet or exceed critical values as a Pacific storm system moves through. Winds today southwest 15-25 mph with gusts to 45 mph, a bit less on Monday. However min RHs will remain quite high, negating the drying effects of the wind. Chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight as the cold front sweeps across the fire zones. Monday into the coming weekend look to remain dry and no significant winds are expected after Monday. Temperatures will remain near normal for most of the week.

Min RH: Lowlands 45-60% today, decreasing to 30-45% Monday/Tuesday, and to 20-30% Wednesday/Thursday. Gila/Black Range Mtns...65-80% today, decreasing to 35-50% Monday/Tuesday, and to 25-35% Wednesday/Thursday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...45-65% today through Tuesday, decreasing to 25-45% Wednesday/Thursday. Vent rates good-very good today and Monday, becoming poor-fair Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 71 50 69 / 40 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 71 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 67 43 66 / 60 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 68 43 65 / 70 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 48 31 47 / 70 30 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 70 44 66 / 80 0 0 0 Silver City 46 59 38 63 / 90 20 0 0 Deming 51 66 40 67 / 80 0 0 0 Lordsburg 47 63 38 66 / 80 20 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 70 51 68 / 40 0 0 0 Dell City 58 72 48 69 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 79 52 74 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 64 46 62 / 30 0 0 0 Fabens 60 75 51 72 / 10 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 69 47 67 / 50 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 69 48 67 / 50 10 0 0 Jornada Range 52 69 43 67 / 80 0 0 0 Hatch 53 72 44 70 / 90 0 0 0 Columbus 56 70 45 69 / 40 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 69 45 66 / 60 10 0 0 Mayhill 46 60 37 58 / 70 10 0 0 Mescalero 43 58 34 58 / 80 50 0 0 Timberon 42 57 33 55 / 80 20 0 0 Winston 45 63 35 61 / 90 10 0 0 Hillsboro 51 69 42 65 / 90 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 70 41 66 / 90 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 61 31 65 / 100 30 0 0 Hurley 45 62 38 64 / 90 10 0 0 Cliff 49 67 34 69 / 90 30 0 0 Mule Creek 43 62 28 65 / 80 40 0 0 Faywood 48 61 39 63 / 90 0 0 0 Animas 49 67 40 67 / 70 10 0 0 Hachita 49 66 39 66 / 70 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 70 42 68 / 80 0 0 0 Cloverdale 49 63 41 65 / 90 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from noon MST today through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.