textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

- Breezy winds with very dry conditions over the next few days. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph Sunday and Monday leading to Critical fire weather conditions. Red Flag Warnings in effect through Monday evening.

- Lighter wind Tuesday into late next week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms along eastern zones.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad trough with closed low centered over western Canada, and a shortwave trough rounding its base over Nevada. A plume of very dry air aloft sits amidst WSW winds aloft, stretching from northern Baja California into southeastern New Mexico.

Nor surprisingly, the low levels are also quite dry, with RH values already under 10 percent at ELP and several other lowland locations.

The trough centered over western Canada will be the main driver of our weather the next several days, as it digs in over the western US. The main theme will be breezy to windy conditions, especially Sunday and Monday. Most of the impacts will be fire weather-related.

Breezy west to west southwest winds this afternoon will start to diminish this evening per usual, but the trough over Nevada will approach overnight. This will lead to some gusty winds along east and north-facing mountain slope areas, and gusty winds will return to the wider area by mid to late morning. Winds on Sunday afternoon will generally be 20 to 30 mph, with gusts 35 to 45 mph, mainly focused over southern New Mexico and into Far West Texas, though winds will taper off quickly as you head south and east of El Paso into Hudspeth County. This will be enough wind to kick up at least light dust, though widespread impacts are not expected.

Another shortwave trough will be dropping down the Pacific Coast, pinwheeling around the upper low in Canada. This trough will move into Nevada Sunday afternoon, and pass just north of the Four Corners on Monday morning, bringing another windy and dry day to the area, very similar to Sunday.

Temperatures will cool slightly in southwestern New Mexico, with highs in the middle to upper-80s expected Sunday and Monday, but around 90 at El Paso, and warmer in the Lower Valley.

A back door cold front dropping down the Great Plains on Tuesday will pump the brakes before it can crest the Sacramento Mountains. But it will interrupt the pressure gradient enough to reduce wind speeds to just 'breezy' across southern New Mexico for Tuesday and Wednesday.

This backdoor front will wash out and become indistinguishable from the dryline by Wednesday. Convection along the dryline will increase on Tuesday, but will remain focused near and east of the Pecos. Nocturnal dryline "sloshing" will bring activity closer to our area each day. There's still a chance the dryline could sneak into the area by Thursday morning, bringing convection chances to parts of Hudspeth and El Paso counties Thursday afternoon. FWIW, the 12Z GFS has backed off on this a bit, with western troughing keeping steady dry WSW low level winds across our area, preventing moisture from working in. Still lots of uncertainty here, and the westward moisture push might depend on the strength and coverage of thunderstorms to our east Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

VMC through forecast period under strong southwest flow aloft. Breezy surface winds this evening, 230-260 at 15G25KT. Patchy BLDU at KELP next few hours, with visibility 6-8 miles. LLWS included in KELP TAF around 06Z tonight, highlighting 35 knots at mountaintop level. Continued breezy conditions on Monday, generally 230-260 at 20G30KT across S NM, 15G25KT across W TX. BLDU may reduce visibility at KDMN and KELP between 18Z-00Z. Skies remaining clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

A trough currently over southwestern Canada will dig into the Great Basin over the next couple of days, bringing increasing west to southwest winds to the area, while very low humidity levels remain in place.

A leading shortwave trough over Nevada today will move into Colorado late tonight, while a second shortwave trough dives down the Pacific Northwest coast. This second shortwave will help deepen the longwave trough, and keep windy conditions in place through Monday.

The timing of the individual shortwave troughs will help keep winds aloft elevated tonight, and again Sunday night. As a result, breezy to gusty winds along higher elevation ridges, as well as north and east-facing mountain slopes tonight and Sunday night will severely limit overnight RH recovery.

In some areas, including along and north of the Capitan Ridge, Red Flag or near-Red Flag conditions might persist through Sunday night and into Monday morning.

Winds will likely stay below Red Flag criteria tonight, but stronger winds aloft will quickly reach the surface earlier in the morning than usual, on Sunday. Thus the Red Flag Warning for Sunday starts just after daybreak. When it ends at Midnight Sunday night, a Fire Weather Watch picks right up in its place, and continues through Monday.

A backdoor cold front looks to stall out just east of the Sacramento Mountains on Tuesday, but it looks like it will interrupt the pressure gradient across the region enough on Tuesday to bring us lighter winds.

This front will merge with the dryline, and for the rest of the week, we'll need to see if thunderstorms to our east can push any moisture into the Sacramento Mountains during the overnights. Otherwise, for most areas, dry west southwest flow will continue, with breezy afternoons bringing elevated fire weather conditions back into play by Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 68 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 60 87 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 50 64 48 62 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 78 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 58 89 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 85 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 96 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 65 93 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 88 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 88 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 90 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 75 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 73 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 47 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 85 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 77 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 82 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 84 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 80 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 7 AM Sunday to midnight MDT Sunday night for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

Fire Weather Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.