textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Spotty showers expected into this evening near the International Border, with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms expected overnight into Friday morning.

- A backdoor cold front will bring cooler temperatures and breezy east winds over the weekend, with scattered afternoon showers possible over northern areas.

- Westerly flow returns Monday and Tuesday, and a few showers and thunderstorms may return to southwestern New Mexico Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows our Pacific upper low is moving into northern Baja California. Subtropical moisture stretches out ahead of it across northwestern Mexico into southern New Mexico. A band of very light precipitation and virga stretches along the southern New Mexico border into Far West Texas, under an area of broadly diffluent low aloft. While only very light rain has reached the ground, the precip and virga has helped lift dewpoints up into the 40s through the morning and early afternoon hours. This should set us up well for when the main disturbance comes rolling through late tonight into early Friday morning, as we won't have to waste time trying to moisten up the lower levels. In other words, we've helped prime things for measurable rainfall tonight.

The upper low will weaken into an open trough as it moves into northern Sonora tonight. We'll keep the WSW-ESE oriented band of light precip in place near the international border through this evening. Occasionally it will wave north or south, bringing occasional light rain to far southern NM and into the El Paso area. Moderate rain showers will begin developing in SW New Mexico as the trough approaches, mainly after 5 PM, but especially between 10 PM and 2 AM. Some isolated embedded thunderstorms will develop as well, aided by the stronger forcing just ahead of the trough axis. The moderate rain with embedded thunder looks to reach the Rio Grande between Midnight and 2 AM, with the best chances for rain focused around 2 AM to 5 AM in El Paso.

By daybreak, most of the activity will be east of ELP, but a secondary area of showers will drop in from the NW between 9 AM and Noon, as a backdoor cold front pushes in from the east. Some gustier winds to around 35 mph will be possible along west-facing mountain slopes as well. Steadier light rain will persist over the Sacramento Mountains...though snow levels look to stay above 9000 to 10,000 feet. Finally, a mid-level cold pool lagging behind the main trough will bring scattered convective showers or thunderstorms to the Gila region Friday afternoon, and a few of these will make a run for the lowlands towards the evening, mainly between Deming and Las Cruces. Showers may linger across northern Grant and Sierra County well into the night as a secondary disturbance approaches the Four Corners.

This secondary disturbance will stall out over the area on Saturday as an upper ridge attempts to build in to its north and west. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop Saturday afternoon over the Gila, Sierra County, and the Sacramento Mountains, but the southern lowlands look to stay dry.

Cooler temperatures will linger Friday into Saturday, before southerly flow returns Sunday, and westerlies on Monday. Breezy west winds look likely Monday and Tuesday, with an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday as another shortwave trough rolls through.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Breezy southwest winds continue the next few hours but will start to calm after sunset. Another round of rain showers expected overnight for the area. A heavier batch of rain is modeled to move west to east across the area after midnight and will trek over towards KELP by 10Z. In addition, a cold front will push in from the north around sunrise which will shift winds northerly and then easterly by the afternoon hours. The bulk of the rain will have pushed out of the area but hit and miss showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Fire weather concerns will be minimal the next few days, as widespread rain showers are expected, along with a back door cold front that will knock temperatures down to about 15 degrees below normal for Friday and Saturday. Soaking rainfall will mostly favor the southern New Mexico lowlands and areas east of the Rio Grande, with up to an inch of rain possible in parts of Otero and Hudspeth Counties. A sharp gradient in precip amounts will setup over the southern Gila Region, with minimal amounts over parts of Catron County.

Breezy to windy conditions return Monday and Tuesday, but the recent rainfall will mitigate concerns and keep RH values elevated. But caution is noted as the parts of the Gila may miss out on the more significant rainfall.

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday over southwestern New Mexico, including the Gila.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 55 69 48 72 / 90 50 10 0 Sierra Blanca 50 62 42 64 / 80 70 10 0 Las Cruces 50 66 43 69 / 80 40 30 0 Alamogordo 50 64 43 67 / 90 80 30 20 Cloudcroft 35 40 28 47 / 90 80 40 20 Truth or Consequences 52 67 48 69 / 50 40 50 20 Silver City 47 68 43 65 / 60 50 40 20 Deming 51 74 46 72 / 80 40 30 10 Lordsburg 49 74 46 72 / 70 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 55 66 49 69 / 90 50 20 0 Dell City 50 61 42 66 / 90 80 10 0 Fort Hancock 55 71 47 73 / 70 60 10 0 Loma Linda 49 58 42 63 / 90 60 10 0 Fabens 55 69 47 72 / 90 40 10 0 Santa Teresa 52 66 45 69 / 80 50 20 0 White Sands HQ 55 65 48 69 / 80 70 30 10 Jornada Range 50 66 42 69 / 80 60 40 10 Hatch 52 71 46 72 / 60 40 40 10 Columbus 55 73 48 72 / 70 20 10 0 Orogrande 51 61 43 66 / 90 70 20 10 Mayhill 41 48 33 57 / 90 80 40 20 Mescalero 40 50 32 58 / 90 90 40 30 Timberon 42 48 31 54 / 90 80 30 20 Winston 46 61 39 61 / 40 50 50 30 Hillsboro 49 66 45 66 / 60 50 50 20 Spaceport 49 67 43 68 / 60 50 40 10 Lake Roberts 45 69 28 66 / 60 50 40 30 Hurley 48 69 40 67 / 60 40 30 10 Cliff 51 76 40 73 / 50 40 20 10 Mule Creek 49 74 33 71 / 40 30 20 10 Faywood 48 66 44 66 / 70 40 40 10 Animas 49 75 48 73 / 70 10 10 0 Hachita 48 72 45 71 / 70 20 10 0 Antelope Wells 48 74 46 72 / 80 10 10 0 Cloverdale 46 69 46 69 / 70 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.