textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- For Saturday through Monday most of the area will stay dry with just a slight chance for rain in eastern Hudspeth and Otero Counties

- Starting Tuesday and lasting most of next week, the moisture returns with a vengeance with widespread rains likely and flooding also possible.

- Typical mid-September temperatures through the start of next week, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Then with the influx of moisture for the middle of next week high temperatures will drop a little below average for next Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

The models had done such a good job the last few days bringing day after day of moderate to heavy rain to the region. Today's short range models had the thunderstorms moving into El Paso, Hudspeth and Otero Counties this evening, but it looks like some drier and more stable air has pushed further east which is keeping most of the thunderstorm activity confined to Hudspeth County. That drying trend will continue on Saturday and Sunday, as the trough aloft that had helped pull moisture into the region, pushes through the inter mountain west into the upper midwest. On the back side of the system drier air will move into the area, greatly reducing or even eliminating our rain chances on Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable water values (PW's) today were in the range of 1.1 to 1.3, but by Sunday we will see PW values in the range of 0.5 to 0.8. Anytime you are below an inch on PW's it is much harder to get thunderstorms going.

For Monday we will begin to see a pattern change back to wetter weather. An upper level ridge will begin to strengthen across eastern Texas while at the same time an upper level trough will approach the area through southern California. The circulation around these systems will begin to draw up moisture. Initially on Monday the moisture will not be very deep, so Monday is looking pretty dry. But by Tuesday the PW values will jump up to 1.3 to 1.5 which is well above average for this time of year. Those higher PW values continue through the end of next week. Short wave troughs embedded in the southerly flow will help kick off daily thunderstorms and with the higher PW values, the thunderstorms next week will be very efficient rain produces. The ECMWF even brings the remnants of a tropical system into western New Mexico on next Thursday but the latest run of the GFS doesn't have any such system. Whether there is a remnant tropical system or simply a deep fetch of tropical moisture, next week looks to have a good potential for heavy rain and flash flooding. Plan on checking the latest forecast during this weekend if you have outdoor plans next week.

Looking at temperatures, with the drier air moving into the region we will see less clouds and more sun. This will help keep our afternoon high temperatures a few degrees above average, but the drier air will allow for cooler and pleasant morning low temperatures. Then as the moisture, clouds and rain chances return to the region we will see high temperatures dip to 4 to 7 degrees below average for the middle and end of next week. Who's ready for some below average high temperatures?

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop, but they are further east than was forecasted. I can't rule out a thunderstorm impacting KELP, but the trend right now is for most of the thunderstorm activity to stay east of KELP. The rest of the region will have unlimited ceilings and light winds tonight. Drier air moves into the region on Saturday which will keep our ceilings unlimited. Winds will generally be light but we will see some low end gusty winds for KTCS for a few hours Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1202 PM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Low fire danger through this period. Some drying Saturday through Monday will drop humidities some but still well above critical values. Chances of rain are slight and limited to the mountain zones. Another surge of sub-tropical moisture will move over the zones Tuesday into next weekend for much higher chances of rain and a risk of flash flooding. Temperatures through the period at or below normal.

Min RH: Lowlands 20-25% Saturday, decreasing to 17-22% Sun/Mon, then increasing to 35-50% Tuesday through Thursday. Mountains...25-35% Saturday, then decreasing to 20-30% Sunday and Monday, then increasing to 65-80% Tuesday through Thursday. Vent rates fair to good through Monday, becoming poor to fair Tuesday through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 68 92 66 91 / 30 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 64 89 61 89 / 30 30 40 10 Las Cruces 63 88 61 89 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 65 89 64 89 / 50 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 50 67 48 67 / 70 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 62 85 60 86 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 59 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 62 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 92 67 92 / 20 0 10 0 Dell City 67 92 64 93 / 50 10 30 0 Fort Hancock 72 97 68 96 / 40 30 30 0 Loma Linda 65 85 63 85 / 50 10 10 0 Fabens 69 94 66 93 / 50 10 20 0 Santa Teresa 65 90 63 90 / 20 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 69 91 68 91 / 30 0 10 0 Jornada Range 63 90 62 90 / 20 0 10 0 Hatch 63 91 62 91 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 65 93 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 63 88 61 89 / 50 0 10 0 Mayhill 55 82 52 82 / 70 10 10 10 Mescalero 53 79 52 79 / 60 0 10 0 Timberon 54 77 52 78 / 70 0 10 0 Winston 54 79 52 80 / 10 10 0 0 Hillsboro 63 86 63 86 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 60 88 59 88 / 10 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 53 81 53 80 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 59 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 88 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 85 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 61 85 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 91 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 91 63 90 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 63 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until 3 AM MDT Saturday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.