textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 438 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Breezy west winds this afternoon with near critical fire danger. Red Flag Warning in effect for the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains.

- Weak cold front arrives from the east Saturday morning, with gusty east winds and minimal changes to temperature.

- Slight rain chances return early next week, with scattered rain showers Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Upper low over the Four Corners today with lee surface low development across the OK/TX Panhandle. Breezy winds out of the west for the El Paso area this afternoon, generally in the 15 to 25 mph range. Some stronger gusts around 40 mph will be felt over the high terrain and along east slopes today. Monitoring for blowing dust this afternoon, but expecting minimal impacts as winds aren't quite strong enough to loft dust. Temperatures today will be cooler than the past few days, with lowland highs only reaching the upper 60s/lower 70s. This is right near normal for early March, however.

Winds will weaken overnight leading to a cool and quiet night. A cold front spilling down the High Plains tonight will reach the Rio Grande Valley by Saturday morning. This will lead to a wind shift, but not much else. Gusty east winds Saturday afternoon, generally 15 to 20 mph. Minimal changes to temperatures for Saturday, still near normal for early March.

Strong jet streak on the backside of the upper low currently over the Four Corners will allow the low to separate away from the prevailing Polar jet and retrograde off the coast of Baja California this weekend. This will position our area in a diffluent, south flow regime. This would normally be favorable for weekend rain chances, but the slow moistening process will delay rain chances. Sunday looks mostly dry with increasing cloud coverage. Light east winds continue.

Upper low begins its approach on Monday, which finally looks to have enough moisture and forcing available for rain chances. Scattered (40-60%) rain showers is the forecast for Monday afternoon through Tuesday, with the best chances favoring southwest New Mexico. Overall QPF is on the lower side, best guess being in the 0.10-0.25 range for rain totals. We may also see a few isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Pacific cold front will also knock temperatures down again for Tuesday.

Wednesday through the rest of next week will be dry with a warming trend, allowing temperatures to run above normal for several days. No significant winds expected at least through next weekend, either.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 438 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Our current low end gusty winds will continue to drop off over the next few hours and we will see light north or northwest winds tonight. A weak cold front will move across the region early on Saturday which will swing our surface winds around to the east and eventually to the southeast by late morning. We will see another round of low end gusty winds Saturday afternoon but this time from the east or southeast. Our skies will be unlimited tonight, with only some off and on high clouds on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Near Critical Fire Danger today with breezy west winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 10-15%. Red Flag Warning in effect for Capitan/Sacramento Mountains until 7 PM where conditions are meeting Critical thresholds for a few hours this afternoon.

Cold front arrives out of the northeast Saturday morning, shifting winds 180 degrees from today. East winds 10 to 20 mph tomorrow afternoon with gusty conditions over mountain ridges and west slopes. Ventilation remains Good to Very Good. Higher moisture with Min RH 15-25% will lead to Elevated Fire Danger. No Red Flags expected tomorrow.

Low Fire Danger on Sunday due to light winds and higher moisture. Scattered rain showers Monday/Tuesday will also keep fire danger low and may provide some wetting rains over the local forests. Winds becoming breezy out of the west again by Tuesday, but no fire headlines expected at this time. Dry and warmer conditions return Wednesday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 43 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 40 66 40 69 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 34 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 34 68 36 71 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 24 45 28 50 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 35 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 30 59 37 66 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 33 69 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 30 65 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 37 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 43 76 43 77 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 41 63 41 68 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 42 74 45 76 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 39 69 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 31 68 35 71 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 32 70 35 74 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 37 71 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 37 66 38 71 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 27 55 30 63 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 26 56 30 62 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 31 54 33 59 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 22 55 27 63 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 33 63 38 68 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 30 65 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 58 31 66 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 28 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 26 66 33 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 63 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 33 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 32 68 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 32 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 68 38 72 / 0 10 10 10 Cloverdale 35 64 42 68 / 0 0 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.