textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 945 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

- An upper level disturbance will bring a diminishing band of rain showers into western New Mexico on Tuesday. West winds will gust 30 to 40 mph across the region.

- Warmer weather will arrive later this week with fair skies and light winds. Temperatures will rise to the low 90s for the lowlands this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Somewhat unsettled weather is forecast for Tuesday as the subtropical jet shifts over NM ahead of an upper trough. Mid-high level moisture reaches western NM in the early AM with isolated rain showers west of the Divide and over the high terrain. Dry conditions prevail for most of the lowlands on Tue under mostly cloudy skies. Rain chances diminish during the afternoon as dry air aloft pokes in from the southwest.

Winds increase during the day as a lee-side low forms over E NM and induces a moderate pressure gradient across the CWA. Breezy to low- end windy conditions are forecast from the west Tue afternoon, generally 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Stronger winds are expected in the high terrain and east slopes, nearing Wind Advisory criteria. E slopes of the Sacs are most likely to see 50 mph gusts during the day as 700mb flow nears 50kts. Patchy BLDU and VIS to 5 miles or below can be seen later in the day, most likely for far west TX and El Paso as the Chihuahuan dust sources activate.

Winds settle on Wed, but still breezy as the upper trough hangs around to the northeast. An associated cold front pushes in for Thu, flipping winds to easterly with some gustiness for west slopes. Otherwise, no impacts are expected while a weak, dry upper low skirts across NW Mexico. Modest northwest flow aloft on the front side of an upper ridge will keep winds light and rain chances near zero into next weekend. Temperatures stay a few degrees below normal through midweek, then warming to above average for the weekend into next week. Lowland highs reach into the low 90s late in the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 945 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Occasionally gusty W winds last into the morning to 20-25kts with low-level winds near or above 30kts. Sfc winds increase further Tue afternoon, gusting to 30-35kts. BLDU is most likely at KELP later in the day with VIS AOB 5 SM possible. Lower confidence of BLDU at KDMN and KLRU. BKN200-250 continue to pass overhead into tomorrow with CIGs down to 10kft and isolated sprinkles for KDMN and KTCS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

An upper level disturbance will bring a diminishing band of showers into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, along with breezy to windy conditions. Despite wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon, fire weather conditions will be mitigated due to recent rainfall (ERCs mostly around 50th percentile now), and an increase in humidity with the incoming system (minimum RHs 25 to 30 percent lowlands, 35 to 55 percent higher elevations).

Lighter winds are expected from Wednesday as conditions become warmer and drier. A very weak backdoor front will bring a reversal to easterly flow Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, and help keep high temperatures about 4 to 7 degrees below normal.

Temperatures will begin to rebound late week, with 90s returning to the lowlands for the weekend, along with single-digit RH values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 80 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 76 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 75 46 74 / 0 10 0 0 Alamogordo 57 74 48 75 / 10 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 41 50 33 52 / 10 20 10 0 Truth or Consequences 56 74 47 75 / 10 20 0 0 Silver City 46 64 38 65 / 20 50 10 0 Deming 53 77 45 76 / 0 20 0 0 Lordsburg 50 72 42 71 / 10 30 10 0 West El Paso Metro 62 77 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 60 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 71 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 76 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 76 54 75 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 55 75 45 75 / 0 10 0 0 Hatch 55 77 47 78 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 57 78 50 78 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 59 74 49 74 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 49 64 40 64 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 46 61 38 63 / 20 20 10 0 Timberon 46 60 37 61 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 42 65 33 67 / 10 40 0 10 Hillsboro 52 70 44 73 / 10 30 0 0 Spaceport 52 74 42 75 / 10 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 64 33 66 / 20 50 10 0 Hurley 45 68 38 69 / 10 40 10 0 Cliff 48 70 38 72 / 20 50 10 0 Mule Creek 45 66 37 69 / 40 60 10 0 Faywood 48 68 40 68 / 10 30 0 0 Animas 51 74 43 73 / 10 30 0 0 Hachita 50 74 43 74 / 10 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 74 45 75 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 50 68 42 69 / 10 20 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.