textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Above normal temperatures through this weekend into the beginning of next week. - Rain chances return out west on Saturday and then areawide for Sunday, but coverage will generally remain isolated to scattered. - We will see drier and cooler weather as we move into the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Three tropical systems bearing down on the U.S. this evening and two not too far away, but right now it doesn't look like we will see much of an impact from any of the systems. Currently Isaias is moving inland through Alabama and will have no impact on our weather. Closer to home Tropical Storm Rachel will approach the northern Baja California coast Saturday. This system quickly weakens and is absorbed by an approaching upper level trough as it moves toward San Diego. The upper level trough shears most of the energy and moisture off to our north and west so that system will have little influence on our weather. The main weather maker for us on Saturday will be the aforementioned upper level trough which will pull some moisture into the area from northern Mexico and that will be enough to give is some widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon and evening. By Sunday the third tropical system will make landfall on the west coast of Mexico. This system (Simon) will have a tough time making it far inland as the coastal mountains of Mexico, tear Simon up pretty well. What moisture is advected to the north and northeast looks to stay just to the east of our region. So right now it looks like we will sit between the remnants of two tropical systems, but neither system looks to have a big influence on our weather. We will again see a chance for isolated showers on Sunday and Monday, but those are driven more by the upper level trough than by any tropical influence. High temperatures on Sunday will run well above average east of the Rio Grande while west of the Rio Grande we will see highs running a few degrees below average.

By Tuesday the upper level trough will have swept by as it heads east and that will sweep most of the moisture and rain chances out of the region. We will see cooler temperatures for the middle of next week with high temperatures running at or a little below average. Just beyond this forecast package, both the extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that a decent cold front will move into the region from the east late Friday night which may knock our temperatures well below average for next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

We will have VFR conditions tonight into the morning on Saturday, with unlimited ceilings and light winds. For late Saturday morning into the afternoon hours, we will see an increase in clouds and we will see several hours of low end wind gusts at most the TAF sites. Rain showers will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening with the best chances for rain near the NM/AZ border. I still don't have enough confidence to mention any impacts in the TAFs, but we may need to amend TAF's as conditions warrant Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period as we will see a couple moisture surges and chances for precipitation. Through the weekend the best rain chances will be west of the Rio Grande and especially the Gila region. As we move into early next week, the best chances shift east of the river. There will be some remnant tropical moisture with these systems and some locally heavy rain is possible but not like with the remnants of Polo. Temperatures will start above normal and drop to near normal by the middle of next week. RH's will remain 25%+. Good vent rates Sat and improving to very good Sun.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 86 66 90 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 57 82 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 83 62 86 / 0 0 20 20 Alamogordo 58 83 64 86 / 0 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 43 61 47 63 / 0 0 10 10 Truth or Consequences 56 81 60 83 / 0 0 20 20 Silver City 54 76 56 76 / 0 10 30 50 Deming 58 84 60 86 / 0 10 20 30 Lordsburg 62 83 61 82 / 0 10 20 30 West El Paso Metro 64 86 68 89 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 59 85 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 90 68 95 / 0 0 10 20 Loma Linda 58 79 62 82 / 0 0 20 20 Fabens 63 89 67 92 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Teresa 61 85 65 87 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 62 85 66 88 / 0 0 20 20 Jornada Range 58 84 63 86 / 0 0 20 20 Hatch 58 86 62 88 / 0 0 20 20 Columbus 61 87 63 88 / 0 10 20 20 Orogrande 58 84 63 86 / 0 0 20 20 Mayhill 47 73 52 76 / 0 0 10 10 Mescalero 48 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 10 Timberon 47 69 50 72 / 0 0 10 20 Winston 48 73 51 76 / 0 10 20 20 Hillsboro 57 81 59 83 / 0 10 20 30 Spaceport 56 82 60 84 / 0 0 20 20 Lake Roberts 48 75 50 73 / 0 10 30 60 Hurley 55 79 56 79 / 0 10 20 40 Cliff 57 84 59 81 / 0 10 30 60 Mule Creek 55 80 57 76 / 0 10 30 70 Faywood 57 78 59 79 / 0 10 20 30 Animas 60 85 61 83 / 0 20 20 20 Hachita 58 84 60 84 / 0 10 20 20 Antelope Wells 60 85 60 84 / 0 20 20 20 Cloverdale 58 80 58 76 / 0 30 20 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.