textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 538 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100 degrees. The warmest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread Heat Advisories in effect. - Very dry early this week before some moisture gives the high terrain a slight chance of thunderstorms mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Broad subtropical high has drifted east over the past few days, now almost directly over northern Chihuahua. Moisture continues to run quite low, with this evening's 00Z sounding at KEPZ only recording 0.52" of precipitable water. No rain chances through at least next Tuesday because of this lack of moisture.

Main headline over the next several days will be heat. Subtropical high centered directly overhead the next couple days will lead to very hot conditions. Lowland temperatures will reach or surpass 100 degrees each afternoon and look to stay that way through the week ahead. The hottest days will be Tuesday- Wednesday, with the Rio Grande Valley (and most of the lowland I-10/I-25/US-54 corridors reaching 104-108 degrees. While this is typical for late June (5 to 10 degrees above normal), it's still impactful heat. Heat Advisories have been issued for the majority of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas through Wednesday. Heat Advisories may eventually need to be extended into Thursday/Friday, particularly for El Paso and the lower Rio Grande Valley.

Shortwaves (along with stronger flow) moving across the Central Rockies midweek will flatten the subtropical high and nudge it southward late this week. This should allow temperatures to "cool" a few degrees, though still likely above 100 degrees for El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley. Slight return flow in moisture will also allow for the return of thunderstorm chances Thursday- Friday. Currently, this looks to be mostly limited to the high terrain (Black Range, Sacramento Mountains), with most of the lowlands only seeing isolated (20-30%) action. Strong west flow aloft looks to scour out moisture next weekend and resume the pattern of dry and hot (but near normal) weather.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 538 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds AOB 8kts this morning, then occasional gusts to 20kts this afternoon from W. Mainly SKC expected other than FEW-SCT250.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 538 AM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the period. Generally light winds today from the west-northwest with very low humidity, even in the morning. Single digit RH hours should exceed 10 for most of the lowlands today and a portion of FWZ110. No rain chances today with hotter conditions. Temperatures climb a bit more for Tuesday and Wednesday as low-end rain chances return mainly to area mountains. Dry lightning is a concern from Tuesday into late week along with gusty downdraft winds. Not much if any rain is expected from this convection this week. Humidities rise gradually through midweek as winds stay light outside of outflows. Temperatures cool slightly after midweek.

Min RHs range from 5-12% through Tue, then 10-25% by Thu. Vent rates will be good to excellent with very deep mixing heights.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 106 79 107 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 70 102 72 102 / 0 10 0 0 Las Cruces 70 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 72 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 83 57 82 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 72 104 74 102 / 0 10 0 0 Silver City 65 99 68 98 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 69 107 70 107 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 68 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 105 77 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 105 71 105 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 108 77 108 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 71 99 72 99 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 73 107 75 108 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 104 73 105 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 104 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 104 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 107 72 107 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 74 106 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 68 103 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 95 62 92 / 0 10 0 20 Mescalero 58 94 60 93 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 58 91 59 89 / 0 10 0 10 Winston 63 96 64 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hillsboro 70 102 72 100 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 67 104 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 59 100 61 98 / 0 10 0 10 Hurley 66 102 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 104 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 63 100 65 100 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 68 101 69 100 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 69 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 103 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 66 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County- Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.