textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 434 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026 - Breezy with seasonal temperatures today behind the storm system.

- Warming and dry through Monday with some breeziness.

- A more Spring-like pattern will settle in across the region for the majority of next work week. Each afternoon will offer breezy to windy conditions. Low chances of precipitation mainly focus over the Gila on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 904 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

As dry air filters in behind yesterday's storm system, low clouds and fog will dissipate by midday. Mainly sunny for the afternoon as NW flow persists on the backside of the low. Generally 10-20 mph winds from the NW this afternoon, a bit stronger for eastern areas where the pressure gradient is tighter.

For Sunday, high clouds move into the region downstream of a large upper low off the West Coast. Otherwise, upper ridging translates over the region, providing lighter winds and warmer temps. Deeper SW flow takes over for much of next week as a series of shortwaves pass by to the north. Winds will be the main concern from Tue-Fri as lee lows develop along the Front Range. Timing of the waves and placement of the surface lows will be key in determining just how windy we get each day, but Tue and Wed now look like the windiest days of the period. The Sacs and Blacks are most favored to experience at least advisory level winds (60% or higher chance of max wind speed 30kts+) on Tue. No wind products will be issued for this forecast cycle as we're still 72 hours out and confidence is not high enough we'll reach warning criteria. Strong wind probabilities decrease each day after Tue, going through Fri.

As we get into a spring-like pattern, blowing dust and fire weather will become threats as soils and fuels dry throughout the week. Yesterday's rainfall certainly mitigates those concerns in the short-term. With the storm track to our north next week, precip chances will be low to none; only the Gila Region has a decent chance at precip on Tue. Several Pacific fronts roll through during the workweek, knocking temps down to near or below normal through midweek after a warm Monday (highs well into the 70s).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 434 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with any remaining low clouds dissipating before sunset leading to SKC-FEW250. Any remaining gustiness will also end after dark with speeds less than 10 knots. Direction will generally be from the west to northwest becoming light and variable for most sites overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 904 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Fire weather concerns will increase next week. Today will see breezy northwest winds behind yesterday's storm system as drier air moves in. 20-ft winds of 15-20 mph are forecast this afternoon for eastern areas, lighter to the west. Winds shift S-SE for Sun, becoming lighter underneath a shortwave ridge. Breezier winds for Mon as deeper SW flow shifts over the region, resulting in min RHs near critical thresholds and some elevated fire danger. Stronger winds arrive for Tue as an upper trough comes across the Four Corners region. More widespread elevated fire wx conditions are forecast for Tue and Wed, although cooler temps will help lower min RHs on Tue. Even though fuels are very moist for mid-February, this pattern will start a drying trend and raise ERCs through midweek. Temps rise to well above normal for Mon, cooling to near or below normal through midweek.

Min RHs range from 20-45% today, falling to 10-25% for Mon. Ventilation rates will be fair to very good this afternoon, poor to good Sun, improving to mostly excellent Tue-Thu.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 42 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 67 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 68 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 27 50 34 54 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 38 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 36 70 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 44 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 69 38 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 40 75 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 40 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 39 74 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 38 69 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 41 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 33 68 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 35 71 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 38 70 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 36 68 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 30 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 29 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 57 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 27 62 29 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 38 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 32 67 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 30 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 33 65 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 31 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 32 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 63 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 35 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 68 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 35 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 38 65 43 65 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.