textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected for the Gila through Wednesday as very dry air moves in.

- Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A stagnant weather pattern is expected for much of the week with strong high pressure aloft over the Ohio Valley and troughing over the Northwest. In between these two features will be a subtropical moisture plume set up over eastern NM and west TX. Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances through Thu with best chances (20-30%) over Hudspeth County. Gusty outflows and blowing dust from the east will remain the primary hazards for the El Paso area, but with low impacts. Areas to the north and west stay dry and somewhat breezy into midweek under SW flow aloft. Very dry air pushes into western NM for Wed/Thu as weak shortwaves move through the Four Corners.

The moisture plume fizzles out late in the week as the upper high begins to re-establish near the Four Corners. The exact placement and strength of the high will determine what our storm chances will be, but area mountains should be favored. Most of the area should be dry and hot for the holiday weekend with highs climbing to near or above 100F for the lowlands. Outside of outflows, winds will be generally light into the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Light SHRA persist SE of KELP tonight with a 10-20% chance of development near the site around 9z. The other terminals should remain dry for Tue. Isolated showers form near or east of KELP during the afternoon. Outflow gusts to 30kts and BLDU may be produced by convection from the east later in the period. Winds AOB 10kts tonight from SW then occasional gusts to 20kts during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions for Gila National Forest on Tuesday with southwest winds 10-20 mph and Min RH around 15%. Fuel moisture is currently at climatological peak dryness and ongoing drought across western New Mexico has ERCs above the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be possible next few days, evident with the Sacaton Fire being visible on satellite.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest New Mexico through the rest of the week, with little to no rain chances. Winds decrease slightly Wednesday/Thursday, though further drying this week will lead to single-digit RH across Gila NF. More favorable moisture will exist further east across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, where isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Lincoln National Forest Thursday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 95 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 66 89 64 90 / 20 30 30 20 Las Cruces 69 94 67 95 / 0 10 10 10 Alamogordo 70 94 68 95 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 53 71 51 72 / 0 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 69 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 62 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 97 66 98 / 0 10 0 0 Lordsburg 66 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 94 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 Dell City 69 94 66 94 / 10 30 30 20 Fort Hancock 72 95 70 96 / 20 30 30 20 Loma Linda 68 88 66 89 / 10 20 10 10 Fabens 72 96 71 97 / 10 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 93 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 76 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 69 94 67 95 / 0 10 10 0 Hatch 70 97 67 98 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 73 97 72 98 / 0 10 10 0 Orogrande 69 93 67 93 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 58 82 55 83 / 0 40 10 20 Mescalero 56 82 54 83 / 0 20 10 10 Timberon 53 80 52 80 / 10 20 10 10 Winston 58 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 94 63 95 / 0 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 63 91 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 63 93 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 89 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 64 90 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 66 94 64 95 / 0 10 0 0 Hachita 66 93 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 93 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 63 87 62 89 / 10 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.