textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 924 PM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

- Near-record warmth this week, lowland highs in the lower to mid seventies.

- Increasing clouds midweek with low chance of rain showers west of the Continental Divide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 924 PM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

Tranquil weather continues through Tue as the upper ridge shifts east over the Gulf states by midweek, turning our winds aloft to SW- erly. Winds will be generally light under fair skies with near- record, fall-like temps.

Not much change in the midweek forecast from this time yesterday. Longwave troughing develops along the West Coast on Tue, creating unsettled weather for the Desert SW through midweek. Most of the impacts will be west of our area, but increased clouds and showery activity is modeled to reach western areas on Wed associated with a plume of subtropical moisture. The Gila Region is most likely to see precip Wed-Thu (30-50% chance Wed night), which would be light and all rain with snow levels holding AOA 11kft. Elsewhere, rain chances are very low (about 10% or less).

Troughing persists over the West Coast for the rest of the week with SW flow overhead. Mainly dry conditions are expected for us after Thu. Christmas Day looks a bit rainy along and west of the Divide with modestly breezy winds (10-20 mph) as an impulse comes across. The next storm system to watch out for would move in next weekend from the Pacific, but models have a wide range of solutions as it approaches (does it linger to the west or progress eastward?).

Temperatures stay at record warm levels through most of the week with lowland highs into the 70s. Highs will be around 15 degrees above normal each day through the workweek. A slight cooldown is signaled next weekend as we wrap up 2025, but still above normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 924 PM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mainly SKC expected. Winds stay AOB 6kts with some variability.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Sun Dec 21 2025

Abnormally warm and dry conditions this week with near record December temperatures. Temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late December. Light winds will keep fire danger low this afternoon. Poor ventilation and min RH 15-25% today and Monday. Increasing clouds and slight (15-30%) chance for rain showers over GNF midweek. This will also allow for more moisture and better RH recoveries after Wednesday. West winds 10 to 20 mph will result in Good ventilation on Christmas Day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 45 76 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 43 75 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 72 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 40 73 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 57 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 41 71 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 43 71 43 68 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 38 75 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 38 74 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 35 76 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 43 80 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 47 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 42 76 41 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 41 72 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 47 74 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 73 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 36 75 36 74 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 41 74 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 42 72 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 72 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 68 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 37 66 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 34 69 34 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 43 72 43 71 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 36 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 38 71 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 39 72 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 76 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 73 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 43 71 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 38 76 39 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 38 74 37 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 40 76 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 74 49 71 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.