textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 901 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

- A low chance of rain showers area-wide on Saturday, then along the International Border into Monday. - Temperatures run above normal through much of next week.

- Another chance of rain returns later next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 901 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

An approaching upper low off Baja will scoop up subtropical moisture on Saturday with increasing cloud cover during the day. Isolated to scattered rain showers develop out west, progressing eastward throughout the day. Rain chances will be low on Saturday, around 20% or less, as the mid-level moisture struggles to erode the dry low levels. The low will move slowly over Baja through Monday, a bit too far south for us to see much precip early in the week. Once the initial moisture plume ejects to the east Sat night, dry air from the north will take over for Sun under general ridging aloft. Moisture increases along the Int'l border for Mon as the low inches eastward, resulting in low rain chances before winding down Mon night. With snow levels hovering around 9kft, only the highest peaks of area mtns will see any snow with minimal accumulations forecast.

Once the low opens up into a shortwave and departs on Tue, SW flow aloft takes over through midweek. Depending on where the subtropical jet sets up later next week downstream of a longwave trough, rain chances may return Thu-Fri. Snow levels will be a bit lower late in the period, near 8kft, so the Sacs have a shot at some snow, but confidence is low. Embedded shortwaves could bring breezy winds as well for the second half of the week. High temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal through the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 901 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Clouds increase from the southwest tonight and Saturday with a plume of moisture, resulting in a low chance of rain showers from west to east. After 18z is the most likely time to see rain showers with mention of SHRA possible in upcoming TAF cycles. CIGs drop to 090-100 for Saturday. Winds stay AOB 8kts with some variability.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Not much in the way of impacts for fire weather this weekend and next week. Chance of showers does move in mid-day Saturday through Monday. Snow levels remain above 9000 ft for this period. Dry again mid-week, then another chance of showers by next Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through much of next week, and no significant winds are expected until next Friday/Saturday with next weekend's showers.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% through Monday, then 18-25% Tuesday/Wednesday. Mountains 30-45% through Monday, then 25-35% Tuesday/Wednesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Monday, then fair-good Tuesday/Wednesday as mixing heights increase some.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 45 68 45 71 / 10 20 10 10 Sierra Blanca 42 68 45 68 / 0 20 20 10 Las Cruces 41 64 39 67 / 0 30 10 0 Alamogordo 40 65 39 69 / 10 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 34 50 31 49 / 10 20 10 10 Truth or Consequences 41 63 40 68 / 0 30 10 0 Silver City 40 59 37 64 / 0 40 10 10 Deming 41 66 39 71 / 0 30 10 10 Lordsburg 42 64 37 69 / 10 20 10 10 West El Paso Metro 48 67 46 70 / 10 20 10 10 Dell City 37 69 42 71 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 44 73 46 74 / 0 20 20 10 Loma Linda 45 65 44 65 / 0 20 10 10 Fabens 44 70 44 73 / 0 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 43 65 41 70 / 10 20 10 10 White Sands HQ 46 67 45 69 / 10 20 10 10 Jornada Range 39 65 37 70 / 0 20 10 0 Hatch 39 68 37 72 / 0 30 10 10 Columbus 45 66 42 70 / 0 30 10 10 Orogrande 40 65 40 68 / 10 20 10 10 Mayhill 37 63 36 62 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 35 60 33 61 / 0 20 20 10 Timberon 38 58 37 58 / 10 20 10 10 Winston 33 58 29 63 / 0 40 10 10 Hillsboro 42 63 40 67 / 0 40 10 10 Spaceport 37 65 35 69 / 0 30 10 0 Lake Roberts 35 57 32 64 / 0 50 10 10 Hurley 38 61 35 66 / 0 40 10 10 Cliff 38 65 34 71 / 0 40 10 10 Mule Creek 38 62 35 67 / 0 40 10 10 Faywood 43 61 39 65 / 0 40 10 10 Animas 43 65 39 69 / 10 30 10 10 Hachita 42 64 37 69 / 0 20 10 10 Antelope Wells 43 65 40 68 / 10 20 10 10 Cloverdale 46 62 43 65 / 10 30 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.