textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

- Cooler temperatures behind a cold front today, especially along and east of the Rio Grande.

- Temperatures trending sharply warmer Tuesday into midweek. Historic March warmth later this week, reaching the lower to mid nineties across the desert lowlands Thursday into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A backdoor cold front is pushing in from the Great Plains tonight and will continue to trek westward across New Mexico bringing breezy east winds as it does so. Winds will become light by the afternoon hours Monday. A brief cool down is also in store post- front. Highs across the lowlands tomorrow will generally be in the 60s to low 70s. Cooler temperatures will be found east of the Rio Grande and warmer temperatures closer towards the AZ border. This will be around a 10-15 degree drop from temperatures we saw yesterday. Tuesday and onward will feature a rapid warmup as high pressure off the SoCal coast will intensify and will slowly meander eastward and strengthen over the lower CO Basin in SW AZ bringing us unseasonably warm temperatures later this week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VMC through forecast period under north flow aloft. FROPA from the east this morning, with SE surface winds 110-150 at 08 to 12 knots today. Wind decreasing tonight to 140-180 at 04-08 knots. Skies generally SCT-BKN250.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Elevated Fire Danger today with southeast winds 5 to 10 mph and Min RH 15 to 25%. Cold front arrived overnight, leading to much cooler temperatures today. Rest of the week will feature light winds, thus no fire headlines expected over the next 7 days.

Strong high pressure over the American Southwest will allow temperatures to rapidly warm in the coming days, reaching historic March warmth Thursday into this weekend. These temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, possibly breaking all-time monthly highs. Humidity will be extremely low, down to 5 to 10% by this Friday. This will allow fuels to dry rapidly, leading to higher wildfire risk for any future windy days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 41 79 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 33 74 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 37 75 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 75 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 54 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 42 80 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 75 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 38 80 47 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 40 79 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 44 78 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 30 79 42 87 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 38 82 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 38 71 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 40 80 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 39 76 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 42 78 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 35 77 43 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 36 81 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 41 80 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 35 75 44 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 33 71 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 65 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 31 63 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 77 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 80 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 35 78 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 77 43 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 77 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 38 81 43 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 39 78 44 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 76 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 80 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 38 80 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 80 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 77 52 82 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.