textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 940 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Sunday with breezy afternoon winds and little or no chance of rain.

- Next Pacific system due in Monday will bring a chance of thunderstorms to most of the area Monday, and perhaps a lingering shower or storm over Otero/Hudspeth Counties Tuesday.

- Temperatures above normal Sunday and Monday; otherwise remaining at seasonable levels through the mid portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 PM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Long-wave trough over the western US is finally drifting east at this time. Southwest flow continues over the CWA within this long- wave, with one weak short-wave just now passing through the area, and the main low now cut off near the northern Baja. Residual moisture at the surface hung around today and aided in isolated showers and thunderstorms along our southern CWA this afternoon/early evening as that short-wave moved across.

Post short-wave, low level moisture will be scoured out on Friday as winds turn from south to southwest. Meanwhile, aloft, Baja upper low will drift over the Sonoran and Chihuahuan Deserts of northern Mexico before frittering away by Saturday. In it's place, weak ridging will build over New Mexico. This pattern will last into Sunday, leaving behind a dry Friday-weekend.

Next Pacific low moving to near SoCal Sunday night to western Arizona Monday will bring an increase in clouds. Low level moisture will also increase with model dewpoints back into the 40s, initially to areas west of the RG Valley Monday afternoon, and eventually to all areas Monday night. Expect some thunderstorms Mon afternoon in the west, spreading eastward in the evening. Upper low lifts out toward the Four Corners Tuesday, scouring away most of the moisture; however enough moisture remains in the far eastern CWA to warrant a low POP for Tuesday. Temperatures for the forecast period will be above normal this weekend, but otherwise at seasonable levels.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Skies currently FEW at 10-15 kft and 25 kft will continue through the morning with FEW- SCT 10-15 kft weak CU development in the afternoon. Winds light and VRB through the morning, south at ~10 at KELP, will becoming southwesterly at 8-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 451 AM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Drier air will push in from the west, as the dryline retreats eastward. Min RH values this afternoon will be less than 15 percent across most of the area, 15-20 percent for elevations above 8000 feet in the Sacramento Mtns. Winds this afternoon will be 8-13 mph with gusts to 20 mph, out of the southwest. Temperatures will trend 1-3 degrees warmer than yesterday, but still slightly below the seasonal average. Deep afternoon mixing will promote very good to excellent smoke ventilation rates.

Seasonal temperatures continue through the weekend with continued RH values below critical thresholds. Winds will be light and variable and generally terrain/drainage driven. Ventilation rates will be very good through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 90 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 57 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 56 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 68 44 70 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 58 87 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 90 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 90 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 92 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 91 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 89 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 88 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 91 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 63 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 79 48 81 / 0 20 0 10 Mescalero 47 79 48 81 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 45 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 80 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 57 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 87 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 83 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 84 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 88 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 83 41 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 83 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 56 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 79 55 84 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.