textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1107 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Mostly dry conditions with some breeziness Thursday through Saturday with low end chances for showers confined to the Sacramento Mtns each afternoon.

- Pleasant with temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s Thursday and through the weekend. These temperatures will be about 5 to 8 degrees below normal for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1107 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The big upper low which helped bring some heavy rain to the area the last couple days is going to lift out over the TX/OK panhandles Thursday morning. Light showers like what we saw today is expected for Thursday afternoon with showers moving north to south. Some light breezes will be seen Thursday afternoon out of the northeast. A backdoor front will push in late Thursday and early Friday morning shifting winds to the east and also bringing much breezier conditions. Wind speeds look to be anywhere from 15-25 mph sustained that morning. Winds stay pretty breezy into the afternoon hours Friday as well. Some drizzle possible in the Sacramento Mtns, especially for east facing slopes. CAMs suggest more widespread showery activity across the lowlands early that morning. Saturday looks quiet with dry conditions and light winds. Heading into Sunday and early next weekend still looks uncertain.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1107 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected with SKC-FEW100/250. Winds will start off west to northwesterly for much of the overnight hours with speeds AOB 10 knots. A wind shift is expected between 15-18z that will bring winds from the northeast to east with speeds around 10 knots along with gusts of 20-25 knots. Overnight tonight until about sunrise, patchy fog cannot be ruled out, but the risk is too low to mention in TAFs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1210 PM MDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal due to recent rains and temperatures at or below normal for the next week. RH's will remain at or above 35% during this period. A back door cold front moves through Thursday night and will bring some breezy easterly winds from time to time into the weekend. A few showers are possible in the Mountains from time to time but rainfall amounts will remain light. A better chance for some more widespread rain moves in late Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 54 77 59 74 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 50 72 51 68 / 0 0 10 20 Las Cruces 50 75 54 73 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 51 74 53 73 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 37 54 38 49 / 20 10 30 30 Truth or Consequences 52 73 55 73 / 10 0 10 0 Silver City 46 70 50 70 / 0 10 10 0 Deming 49 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 75 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 78 59 75 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 53 76 57 70 / 0 0 10 20 Fort Hancock 57 81 58 77 / 0 0 0 20 Loma Linda 50 69 52 65 / 0 0 10 20 Fabens 55 79 59 75 / 0 0 10 20 Santa Teresa 52 76 57 73 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 54 77 57 75 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 50 75 54 75 / 0 0 10 0 Hatch 53 78 55 77 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 54 78 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 50 73 52 72 / 0 10 10 0 Mayhill 43 65 44 57 / 10 10 30 40 Mescalero 42 65 43 60 / 30 10 30 30 Timberon 40 61 42 58 / 10 20 20 20 Winston 44 67 46 66 / 10 10 10 0 Hillsboro 51 73 54 72 / 0 0 10 0 Spaceport 49 74 52 74 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 42 70 45 68 / 0 10 10 0 Hurley 46 72 52 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 51 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 75 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 71 53 70 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 76 56 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 75 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 55 73 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 49 72 53 68 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.