textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Scattered rain showers with a few thunderstorms will continue through Friday as plenty of moisture remains in the area and an upper trough slowly moves out of the southwest.

- Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for areas near and east of the Rio Grande Valley through this evening. Additional rainfall amounts into early Thursday will be less than a half inch for most areas but locally 1-2 inches are possible with thunderstorms.

- Drier and warmer weather for the weekend with another round of rain expected Monday and tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Currently, showers and isolated thunderstorms are tapering off, especially west of the RGV. This has been the trend in the CAMs and have tapered NBM PoPs down for this afternoon and evening. There is still some potential for convective development this afternoon over the east as there are still some disturbances moving through. These have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall in an almost tropical environment. Then, the HRRR and even the GFS are showing a SW-NE band of thunderstorms developing near El Paso along an inverted surface trough. Kept PoPs going there higher than other areas after midnight.

As we move into Thu, through the morning it just looks like some lingering showers east, but then we get some convectively induced disturbances moving up out of Mexico in the aftn/evening which will bring another round of storms to the entire CWA. There is some modest instability around of 500-1000J/kg CAPE and moisture remains above normal so heavy rain will again be the main threat. Temperatures will struggle out east to get above the lower to mid 70s while areas out west where I'm expecting at least some sun will get to around 80.

For Fri, the upper trough that has been lingering off to the west will lift out and the main axis will be east of the area by 00Z Sat. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible with the trough passage and again decent CAPE but with mid-upper level drying and some shear so may need to be aware of severe. Temperatures will warm areawide with lower to mid 80s for the lowlands and did raise NBM temps a few degrees.

The dry air is fully entrenched for Saturday with the influence of the next trough moving into the west for later Sunday. A few storms are possible here, but we will have to really watch if the remnants of Polo move up this way. GFS is much more aggressive with this moisture getting caught up in the next trough than the EC. This would be a heavy rain maker again if it does happen.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

P6SM FEW-SCT015-025 SCT-BKN050-070 to start the period with areas west of the RGV seeing some partial clearing after 00Z with SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250. SCT to NMRS-SHRA BKN020-030 will continue mainly over eastern El Paso county into Hudspeth and Otero counties through the afternoon with isolated 1-3SM TSRA BKN010-020 developing with weak daytime heating. Another round of storms is possible near KELP from 06Z-10Z. Winds generally light out of the northeast to east AOB 12KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the region due to the recent rains and just a brief downturn in RH's from the 50s/60s to the 30s/40s for Sat/Sun as temps warm back into the 80s for the lowlands. Another upper trough will be affecting the region early next week with additional rainfall possible and cooler temps.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 77 62 82 / 60 40 70 30 Sierra Blanca 59 74 58 82 / 50 60 70 30 Las Cruces 58 76 59 79 / 60 30 80 30 Alamogordo 60 76 58 80 / 80 70 90 50 Cloudcroft 48 57 45 60 / 70 70 90 60 Truth or Consequences 59 78 59 80 / 70 40 90 30 Silver City 54 74 55 76 / 30 30 70 20 Deming 58 78 59 83 / 30 20 80 20 Lordsburg 59 79 60 83 / 20 10 70 10 West El Paso Metro 63 77 63 82 / 50 40 70 30 Dell City 62 73 61 83 / 50 60 70 60 Fort Hancock 64 72 64 84 / 50 60 70 30 Loma Linda 58 72 57 76 / 60 50 70 30 Fabens 62 79 63 83 / 60 40 70 30 Santa Teresa 61 76 61 81 / 50 30 70 30 White Sands HQ 63 77 62 81 / 70 50 90 30 Jornada Range 59 75 59 79 / 60 50 90 30 Hatch 61 78 61 82 / 70 40 90 30 Columbus 63 80 62 82 / 30 20 60 10 Orogrande 61 75 60 79 / 70 50 80 40 Mayhill 53 69 52 75 / 80 80 80 80 Mescalero 52 68 50 72 / 70 70 80 60 Timberon 49 65 48 69 / 80 80 90 60 Winston 52 70 52 72 / 50 60 80 50 Hillsboro 57 75 58 78 / 50 50 90 30 Spaceport 58 76 58 80 / 70 40 90 40 Lake Roberts 51 74 52 77 / 30 40 80 20 Hurley 54 77 55 77 / 30 30 70 20 Cliff 57 81 57 83 / 30 20 80 20 Mule Creek 56 76 55 80 / 40 30 70 20 Faywood 57 74 58 76 / 30 30 70 20 Animas 60 79 61 83 / 30 10 60 10 Hachita 59 77 60 81 / 20 20 60 10 Antelope Wells 60 79 60 83 / 50 20 50 10 Cloverdale 57 78 57 80 / 50 20 40 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch until 7 PM MDT this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range.

Flood Watch through this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.