textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting through the rest of July and into early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico into next week. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding will be possible each afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Persistent upper high over the Southern Rockies will remain fixed over the region through at least the remainder of late July, driving the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the North America Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective temperatures/terrain forcing producing meager instability. Precipitable water values are just over an inch through much of central New Mexico, with drier air across far west Texas. Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again across the southern NM high elevations and portions of the southwest New Mexico lowlands. El Paso/Las Cruces should remain dry. Main threat will be localized flash flooding, as storm motions remain very slow if not stationary and capable of 1-2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

Hot temperatures will also continue into the week ahead due to this suffocating upper ridge. Highs will run 5-10 degrees above normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 100 to 105 degree range. Another Heat Advisory will need to be considered for El Paso and Rio Grande Valley this week.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to- day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall weather pattern will continue to be warmer-than-normal temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly around the southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of August, which is still a poor weather pattern for rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop off the high terrain this afternoon and slowly drift off into lower elevations. Brief MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings can be expected from any direct hit, though there are very low chances for any TAF sites to be impacted. Showers likely to wane by sundown, with a few showers possible to remain through 06z. Rather light winds are forecast through the TAF period, though isolated wind gusts up to 20-25kts may be observed between 06-12z near higher terrain. Interests should also note the high temperatures across the region, correlating with higher density altitudes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm outflows on localized scales for brief time frames. ERCs/Fire Danger remain low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 80 105 79 106 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 72 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 74 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 77 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 57 79 58 80 / 10 20 0 30 Truth or Consequences 75 102 76 103 / 10 0 10 0 Silver City 67 93 67 95 / 20 30 10 40 Deming 73 103 73 103 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 73 99 73 99 / 20 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 74 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 79 106 78 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 73 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 78 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 77 102 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 81 104 80 104 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 76 103 77 104 / 10 0 10 10 Hatch 75 105 76 106 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 79 104 77 104 / 0 10 20 0 Orogrande 74 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 62 91 63 91 / 10 20 10 20 Mescalero 61 90 62 91 / 10 20 0 30 Timberon 59 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 20 Winston 64 92 65 94 / 20 30 20 20 Hillsboro 71 99 72 100 / 10 10 10 10 Spaceport 72 102 73 103 / 10 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 61 94 61 95 / 20 40 10 60 Hurley 68 97 68 98 / 20 30 10 30 Cliff 69 99 69 100 / 20 20 20 30 Mule Creek 66 95 67 95 / 20 30 20 30 Faywood 69 96 69 98 / 10 20 10 20 Animas 73 99 72 99 / 20 10 20 10 Hachita 72 99 71 99 / 20 10 20 10 Antelope Wells 71 98 69 98 / 20 20 50 10 Cloverdale 67 92 65 92 / 30 40 50 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.