textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1140 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

- A sharp downturn in thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening as drier conditions seep in.

- Higher terrain areas in the Gila and Sacramentos will get another uptick in thunderstorms late Wednesday and Thursday, with minimal chances in the southern lowlands.

- The hot and dry pattern looks to become more reliable and widespread for the weekend. Record or near record highs possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Drier air is showing up nicely on WV along the NM/TX border pushing west into the area. This should limit any thunderstorm activity to just the Gila region this afternoon where there is still some modest moisture around. This activity will end by sunset with clear skies and light winds allowing lows to fall into the 60s to lower 70s.

For Wed, there will be a weak frontal boundary pushing in from a shortwave moving through the Central Plains. As usual, scattered storms will form over the higher elevations. There is some disagreement among CAMS and global models. GFS/EC are generally keeping storms in the mountains, but the CAMS showing outflows pushing south and isolated storms forming over the lower elevations. Even the GFS does show a fairly strong outflow pushing off the Gila, so would not be surprised to see a few storms develop off of this. Did raise PoPs from the NBM to mentionable to account for this. Temperatures will be hot with most of the lowlands in the 99-105 range. NBM temps seemed a little low and did raise a degree or two as we will be approaching record highs. The record at KELP tomorrow is 103 and we will be close. Thu looks similar with residual moisture around, but less confident storms make it onto the lowlands as mid level flow turns more easterly with upper high being well established just north of the Four Corners. Highs again will be near records, especially further south.

For Sat-Mon, the upper high will shift a little SE and end up near the TX Panhandle. This will not be good for the CWA as the moisture all gets pushed up into AZ. It will keep temperatures hot with near record highs continuing. NBM temps may be a couple degrees cool, but they are close with near 100 for the lowlands.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

P6SM SKC-SCT150 through the period. Isolated -TSRA possible over the Gila region and possibly the Sacs this afternoon, but otherwise dry conditions are expected. Winds generally southeast AOB 12KTS turning more west to south overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Upper high will dominate the weather for quite some time. There will be a weak boundary that will drop into the region Wed and bring back some modest moisture and thunderstorm chances. For Wed and Thu, there will be scattered storms over the mountains and some isolated storms moving onto the lowlands from gusty outflows. Storm coverage becomes minimal to none by the weekend as the upper high shifts into the TX panhandle and pushes the moisture west into AZ. Temperatures through the period will be 5-10 degrees above normal with some near record highs possible. RH's will fall into the teens for the lowlands and 20s/30s in the mountains. Vent rates fair to good the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 69 97 67 98 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 68 99 72 98 / 0 20 10 20 Cloudcroft 53 77 54 76 / 10 20 10 60 Truth or Consequences 70 99 72 98 / 0 20 20 10 Silver City 65 93 65 92 / 0 40 20 30 Deming 67 101 69 102 / 0 10 20 10 Lordsburg 69 98 70 99 / 0 10 20 10 West El Paso Metro 71 101 74 102 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 67 101 70 102 / 0 0 10 0 Fort Hancock 70 103 74 103 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 66 94 69 95 / 0 0 10 0 Fabens 69 102 72 103 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 68 99 71 100 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 69 101 75 102 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 65 100 67 99 / 0 0 10 10 Hatch 69 103 71 102 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 70 101 73 102 / 0 0 10 0 Orogrande 67 100 69 101 / 0 0 10 10 Mayhill 59 89 59 88 / 10 20 10 30 Mescalero 57 88 58 87 / 10 20 10 60 Timberon 53 87 56 86 / 0 20 10 20 Winston 60 91 62 90 / 0 20 20 30 Hillsboro 66 96 69 95 / 0 20 20 10 Spaceport 66 100 69 99 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 52 91 57 90 / 10 40 20 50 Hurley 64 95 66 94 / 0 30 20 20 Cliff 60 96 63 95 / 10 40 20 40 Mule Creek 56 94 61 93 / 10 40 20 50 Faywood 65 95 67 94 / 0 20 20 10 Animas 69 99 70 100 / 0 10 10 10 Hachita 67 98 69 99 / 0 10 10 10 Antelope Wells 66 97 68 98 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 63 93 66 94 / 0 10 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.