textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Any thunderstorms in the lowlands will be highly isolated this evening, favoring areas east of El Paso, and the New Mexico Bootheel Region.

- Precip chances will diminish on Wednesday, then ramp up again Thursday across the area.

- Temperatures will cool to near normal in Southwestern New Mexico through the week. They will hover about 5 degrees above normal near and east of the Rio Grande, with lowland highs staying below 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Leftover convective debris clouds over SW New Mexico have mostly dissipated, except around an MCV in the Gila Region. Convection has been mostly confined to the Sacramento Mountains, though we are seeing some buildups in the Bootheel and even over a few desert mountain ranges.

Storms over the Sacramentos have had a small footprint, but have been training and anchored to the terrain a bit. But intensity is on the downturn. Overall, expect fairly isolated thunderstorms going forward, but still favoring areas east of the Rio Grande, and mostly southern Otero and near higher terrain in Hudspeth County.

Models continue to show increasing moisture for tomorrow (Wed), but low level moisture will be lacking in northern areas, with PWAT values by afternoon ranging from around 1.00 inches in central Sierra County, to 1.25 inches near the International border, where modest instability will also be present. Upper level support will be limited, as the upper ridge will be trying to rebuild its western limb. But, isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, favoring southern areas, and especially the Bootheel.

Thursday, PWAT values continue to increase and advect northwards. Troughing over the western US looks to try and edge out the western limb of the ridge again. No strong shortwave troughs are noted, but some pockets of cooler mid-level air are evident in the GFS. Also, upper level diffluence returns as the ridge high aloft breaks down. Overall, Thursday looks like an uptick in coverage, with southwestern New Mexico most favored in the evening.

The subtropical ridge continues to hold all the cards for precip chances going forward. SW New Mexico and Arizona look more favored over the weekend as the ridge rebuilds over the area yet again. But, there appears to be plenty of trapped moisture underneath. But 500mb temps of -3.5 to -4C are not favorable for areas east of the Divide.

Temperatures still look to hold below 100 through the weekend, though early next week is trending towards a more sprawling ridge again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Isolated thunderstorms not completely out of the question in the lowlands near ELP this afternoon, but probability is only about 15-20 percent. Otherwise, storms look to mostly stay over higher terrain areas east and northeast of ELP. Expect generally light winds with no widespread outflow like last night. A downtick in thunderstorm coverage is expected on Wednesday, with terminals expected to stay unaffected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Isolated slow moving thunderstorms over the Sacramento Mountains will diminish in the next couple of hours, with very low coverage elsewhere. Expect similar low coverage on Wednesday as upper level ridging tries to build back in. Precip chances look to increase from Thursday as additional moisture and some upper level support moves into the picture. Precip chances will tend to shift westward through the weekend.

Temperatures will be near normal in SW New Mexico, and a few degrees above normal east of the Continental Divide. MinRH values will be on the upswing as moisture increases over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 98 74 98 / 10 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 94 68 94 / 20 10 10 10 Las Cruces 67 96 69 96 / 0 10 10 10 Alamogordo 68 96 70 96 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 50 72 52 72 / 10 20 10 30 Truth or Consequences 69 94 70 94 / 20 10 10 20 Silver City 61 88 62 87 / 10 10 0 40 Deming 67 97 69 96 / 0 10 10 20 Lordsburg 66 93 68 92 / 0 10 10 30 West El Paso Metro 75 97 77 97 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 70 98 72 99 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 73 101 74 101 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 68 90 68 90 / 10 10 10 0 Fabens 71 98 72 98 / 10 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 70 95 72 95 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 72 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 68 96 69 96 / 10 10 10 10 Hatch 68 99 70 99 / 0 10 0 10 Columbus 72 97 73 96 / 0 10 10 20 Orogrande 67 95 68 95 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 56 85 58 86 / 10 30 10 40 Mescalero 55 84 56 84 / 10 10 10 30 Timberon 54 82 55 82 / 10 10 10 10 Winston 57 85 58 85 / 20 10 10 60 Hillsboro 66 94 67 93 / 10 10 0 30 Spaceport 66 95 67 95 / 20 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 55 87 56 86 / 20 10 0 50 Hurley 62 91 63 90 / 10 10 0 30 Cliff 63 95 65 94 / 10 10 10 20 Mule Creek 61 90 61 89 / 0 10 10 20 Faywood 65 90 66 90 / 10 10 0 30 Animas 67 92 68 91 / 10 20 20 50 Hachita 66 93 67 91 / 10 10 10 30 Antelope Wells 66 90 66 89 / 10 20 30 50 Cloverdale 63 85 63 83 / 10 30 40 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.