textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms tonight with gusty winds to 30 mph near storms.

- Increasing storm chances through Tuesday with a low threat of flash flooding, then again into next weekend.

- Seasonable temperatures today, then falling to below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Not much of a change from the previous forecast package with increased rain chances as we initiate the work-week along with below normal temperatures.

A low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast through the rest of today with a slight increase in overall moisture. Conditions will be similar to yesterday with convection becoming more active in the mid afternoon to early evening hours. Although today we will remain under the influence of a ridge, this feature will begin drifting into the Northern Plains through the coming days with a northeasterly flow developing aloft and allowing for a few disturbances to track across the region. PWATs will be on the rise as well, climbing to around 1.2-1.4" by Monday. This will aid in maintaining low to medium (20-40%) rain/storm chances across much of the lowlands through Tuesday, with higher chances (60-70%) over the mountains and in southern Hudspeth county.

Around mid week, an approaching inverted trough will provide some subsidence with PWATs decreasing to around 1.1" again and resulting in limited convective chances. However, the trough is forecast to shift westward late week, allowing for PWATs to increase once more as we head into the latter part of the week and into next weekend.

In terms of impacts, blowing dust will be the main concern today with gusts to near 40 mph with any of the storm outflows. The rest of the week, we will remain under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4), and localized flooding will be of concern, especially over mountainous terrain and near burn scar areas. Given how much moisture will be available, quick heavy downpours could also result in nuisance flooding over low-lying or urban areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally VFR through the period. SCT100 BKN250 with isolated BKN070CB -TSRA, mainly west of the RG Valley til around 06Z. East/southeast winds 12-17G25 knots until 06Z, then variable AOB 7 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1113 AM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, lasting into the evening hours. Gusty and erratic winds may accompany this activity along with brief downpours. Storm motion will be generally to the west today. Outside of outflows, winds will be modestly breezy from the east to southeast. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than yesterday with the cooling trend lasting through midweek. Storm chances increase Monday and Tuesday with isolated flash flooding, especially on recent burn scars. Drier conditions will follow mid week, before thunderstorm chances and flooding concerns return late week into next weekend. Fire weather concerns will remain low through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 92 72 90 / 10 20 40 40 Sierra Blanca 64 84 62 82 / 20 60 60 70 Las Cruces 68 91 66 89 / 10 10 20 20 Alamogordo 67 91 65 89 / 10 30 20 60 Cloudcroft 50 68 48 68 / 30 40 20 70 Truth or Consequences 70 92 69 91 / 20 10 20 30 Silver City 64 87 62 85 / 20 20 30 60 Deming 68 94 65 93 / 30 10 30 30 Lordsburg 69 92 66 91 / 30 20 40 20 West El Paso Metro 75 91 72 89 / 10 20 40 40 Dell City 67 89 66 87 / 10 30 30 50 Fort Hancock 72 91 70 89 / 20 50 60 70 Loma Linda 66 84 64 83 / 10 30 40 50 Fabens 72 92 70 90 / 10 40 40 40 Santa Teresa 71 90 68 88 / 10 20 40 40 White Sands HQ 74 92 72 90 / 20 10 30 30 Jornada Range 69 92 67 90 / 10 10 20 20 Hatch 69 95 67 94 / 20 10 20 20 Columbus 73 93 70 92 / 20 20 30 30 Orogrande 68 90 66 88 / 20 10 20 30 Mayhill 54 77 53 76 / 40 40 30 60 Mescalero 54 79 52 79 / 20 30 20 60 Timberon 52 76 50 75 / 30 30 30 70 Winston 60 85 58 84 / 20 10 20 30 Hillsboro 66 89 64 89 / 40 10 30 30 Spaceport 66 92 64 91 / 10 10 10 30 Lake Roberts 57 88 56 87 / 20 20 30 60 Hurley 64 89 62 88 / 20 10 30 40 Cliff 65 93 64 91 / 20 30 30 60 Mule Creek 63 89 62 88 / 20 30 30 60 Faywood 65 88 63 87 / 30 10 30 30 Animas 68 91 66 90 / 40 30 50 30 Hachita 67 91 64 89 / 40 30 50 30 Antelope Wells 67 90 65 88 / 40 40 60 40 Cloverdale 63 85 63 84 / 60 50 60 40

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.