textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 957 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday, though limited mostly to areas east of the Rio Grande Valley.

- Drier and warmer on Sunday through Wednesday with many lowland areas seeing their first 100 degree days of the season.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 959 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Upper low currently over the Big Bend and drifting slowly northeast. Wrap around mid/upper level moisture covers most of the CWA. Decent instability and surface moisture have allowed isolated thunderstorms much of the afternoon in one wave that dissipated in the south. A second wave of convection is flaring up over Sierra and Otero Counties this evening, with strong outflow ahead of it. HRRR has been consistent with this, bringing it down to the Las Cruces-El Paso corridor around 04Z-05Z. T or C and the Spaceport have both reported wind gusts of 50-65 mph. Expect winds to diminish some as they travel south, but 40-50 mph gusts still possible Dona Ana, Luna, and El Paso Counties over the next 3 hours. A few thunderstorms may also fire off along the leading edge of the outflow. Hi-res models have been pretty consistent in ending convection by 07Z-08Z.

Saturday through Monday...ramping down of thunderstorm activity still on schedule. Upper low moves over the Texas Panhandle Saturday. A bit of residual moisture over the Sacrament Mtns could lead to a few thunderstorms there. Otherwise this period should remain dry as an upper ridge eventually builds in behind the exiting trough, and combined with rapidly warming 850mb temps, will push lowland highs to around 100-103 by Sunday.

Tuesday through Friday...quite a bit of model uncertainty for this period, especially Thursday and Friday. Sub-tropical high builds in across the Gulf of America and Texas to New Mexico. Both GFS/ECMWF similar here with drawing some sub-tropical moisture up around the high. Isolated mountain storms can't be ruled out completely so grids show this. Sub-tropical ridge becomes much stronger with the ECMWF so that moisture advection Thursday/Friday slows to a trickle. The GFS on the other hand keeps the spigot fully open both days with thunderstorms likely. Kept the drier ECMWF solution for now but will have to keep watching for model consistency. Temperatures will remain above normal, with more triple digit heat for much of the lowlands.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 557 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Light and variable winds through today, favoring from the south to southwest in the afternoon, but with more variability than most days. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop again after 18Z today, but will likely be limited to the Sacramento Mtns. Still, some outflow winds the northwest to north may reach TCS after 03-04Z tonight, from storms further outside the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 557 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Aside from a lingering risk of a stray thunderstorm over the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon, we will be entering a hotter and drier pattern over the next several days, with lowland highs above 100 becoming common by Monday. Minimum RH values will drop below 15 percent again for much of the week, although some limited moisture will work into areas east of the Rio Grande during the overnight hours, starting Monday night. A very weak shortwave trough could spark a stray thunderstorm over the Sacramento Mountains late Tuesday. A back door cold front may try and bring some relief late in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 71 99 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 60 93 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 65 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 67 96 70 98 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 75 53 76 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 67 95 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 58 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 65 98 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 97 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 100 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 63 90 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 66 100 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 66 96 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 97 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 63 96 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 64 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 70 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 61 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 87 59 88 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 52 84 56 86 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 49 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 56 87 57 87 / 10 0 0 10 Hillsboro 65 93 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 60 95 62 97 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 88 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 60 90 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 94 50 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 89 45 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 61 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 94 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 62 94 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 62 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 88 60 89 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.