textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 455 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

- Above normal temperatures through this weekend into the beginning of next week. - Generally dry conditions expected today with just some isolated storms out west late Saturday.

- Moisture levels will increase Sunday into Monday, with increasing chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The weak upper level trough that passed across the region today and gave us some beautiful cumulus clouds and a few rain showers has moved off to the southeast. In its wake we will have a short wave upper level ridge build across New Mexico and that will keep our skies clear, our winds light and high temperatures Friday afternoon will run a few degrees above average.

For the weekend, our upper level flow will turn more toward the southwest. This southwest flow will begin to draw a little moisture up from northern Mexico. The moisture both Saturday and Sunday will be pretty meager with only the Gila region and locations along the NM/AZ border having much of a chance for precipitation. High temperatures both days will run 5 to 8 degrees above average. Will El Paso see one more 90 degree day on Sunday; we will be close.

For Monday and Tuesday all eyes turn toward another tropical system making landfall in west central Mexico. The deterministic models have struggled with just how much moisture will be drawn north into our region. Unlike the remnants of Hurricane Polo that pounded the region last week, the remnants of Hurricane Simon will have a much greater distance to travel to reach the southwest U.S. Right now it seems like most of the moisture either doesn't make it this far north or is sweep to the east by an upper level trough. We need to keep an eye on things in case the models trend in a wetter direction, but right now the first of next week will see a chance for rain, but it is not looking too bad. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will run a few degrees above average east of the Rio Grande and a few degrees below average west of the river. Things look drier and a little cooler for the middle part of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions...with SKC west of the RG Valley. RG Valley east...SCT070 SCT150. Light winds this morning becoming east/southeast 7-10 knots this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Little in the way of fire concerns next several days. We will see mostly fair weather today and Saturday, with just a slight chance of thunderstorms Saturday over the Gila/Black Range. Limited amounts of tropical moisture will move into the fire zones Sunday and Monday with a chance of rain and a few areas of heavy rain.

Min RH: Lowlands 20-27% through today and Saturday, increasing to 28-35% Sunday through Tuesday. Mountains 30-45% today and Saturday, increasing to 40-55% Sunday through Tuesday. Vent rates fair today, fair-good Saturday, and good-very good Sunday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 87 67 89 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 57 82 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 84 62 86 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 57 84 63 86 / 0 0 10 0 Cloudcroft 42 65 46 67 / 0 0 10 0 Truth or Consequences 56 82 60 82 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 53 76 56 75 / 0 10 20 60 Deming 59 85 61 86 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 62 84 62 82 / 0 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 65 87 68 89 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 59 86 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 91 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 62 86 65 87 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 62 86 66 88 / 0 0 10 0 Jornada Range 55 85 60 86 / 0 0 10 0 Hatch 58 87 63 88 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 62 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 85 60 86 / 0 0 10 0 Mayhill 47 77 51 79 / 0 0 10 0 Mescalero 47 77 51 79 / 0 0 10 0 Timberon 47 73 50 76 / 0 0 10 10 Winston 49 76 51 76 / 0 20 10 30 Hillsboro 58 82 60 82 / 0 0 10 20 Spaceport 54 83 58 84 / 0 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 45 77 49 74 / 0 20 30 70 Hurley 55 79 56 79 / 0 0 10 40 Cliff 45 84 52 81 / 0 20 30 70 Mule Creek 42 80 49 75 / 0 20 40 80 Faywood 57 79 59 79 / 0 0 10 30 Animas 60 85 62 83 / 0 0 10 20 Hachita 59 85 61 84 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 60 85 61 83 / 0 0 10 10 Cloverdale 58 81 59 76 / 0 0 10 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.