textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1145 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- A backdoor cold front will bring gusty downslope winds to the west slopes of the Sacramento Mountains tonight. Given highly saturated ground, this may lead to more tree damage than you'd expect with 40 to 50 mph gusts.

- The east slopes of the Sacramentos will be socked in with low clouds, advection fog, a bit of drizzle or a brief shower, and much lighter winds into the morning hours. - Breezy conditions, with gusts 35 to 45 mph, can be expected west of some of the desert mountain ranges tonight.

- Off and on showers will be possible going into the middle of next week but with near average temperatures returning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A backdoor cold front is pushing into the area overnight. Already we are seeing upslope stratus socking in the east slopes of the Sacramentos, and where the clouds are running aground, some fog.

HREF members are all indicating strong downslope winds on the west slopes of the Sacramentos overnight, with gusts in to 40 to 50 mph range. 50 mph gusts are enough for Wind Advisory criteria at EPZ. Normally I'd have skipped an advisory for the expected wind gust range, but with all the recent rainfall saturating the soil, and east winds having a history of producing more wind damage (they're not uncommon in backdoor front scenarios, but are generally lighter and less frequent than the prevailing west winds), I figured we should lean into the potential impacts a bit more and go ahead with an Advisory. We're still stuck using Forecast Zones, which were mostly created with snow levels in mind. The actual hazard area is east of US-54 in the Tularosa Basin, and west of the crest. Most (or all?) of the higher elevation areas along the Sunspot Highway are on the downslope side, so their zone was included too. But once you get east of Cloudcroft, the winds will be much lighter, with clouds/fog/drizzle. It'll look a little weird on some web site maps, but I did whittle back the Hazard grids to match reality.

Otherwise, expect breezy downslope winds, especially west of the Huecos and Franklins tonight, with some gusts around 40-45 mph. Far fewer trees (but not zero), and far less rain from Polo down here.

With a moisture-starved closed low embedded in a trough stalling out over the area tomorrow, we'll see clouds blossom after sunrise, aided by residual low level moisture and steepening lapse rates. Ceilings around 5000-7000 feet. A few spotty showers will be possible, especially over the Sacramentos as the stratus starts mixing.

Upper level ridging will bring quiet weather, and a slow warming trend through the weekend, with 80s returning by Sunday. Another trough dropping in from the north mid-week looks interesting with its -10C 500mb temps and subtropical jet streak exit region nosing in. The sort of pattern that makes me think of convective showers with a bit of small hail. Moisture looks a little lacking, but not bone dry. The models that feed the NBM aren't kicking out much precip except a slight chance over the Sacs, and we can't edit past Day 3. Worth keeping tabs on Wednesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Back door cold front will bring gusty NNE to NE winds to TCS and DMN overnight into Friday. LRU looks to see lighter northerly winds tonight, but will wind up in a sort of orographic dead-zone downstream of the Sacramentos and San Andres mountains, with light and variable winds much of Friday. Eventually they'll find their way around the terrain and come up the valley from the SE. ELP will see steady N to NE winds, occasionally gusting to 20 knots off and on. Much stronger winds, with gusts to 40 knots will lurk along the west slopes of local mountain ranges.

Steepening lapse rates with a stalling-out, but moisture-starved upper low will allow high-based cu and strato cu to blossom by mid to late morning. Expect widespread BKN-OVC 050-070. The odd light shower can't be ruled out, but probs are low and impacts would be nil.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Little to no fire concerns still for the upcoming 5 days after recent rains. There will be some gusty east to northeast winds moving in overnight behind a back door cold front. Some areas on western mountain slopes and along the I-10 corridor will have gusts over 30 mph Friday. Winds will decrease for the remainder of the period but occasional gusts over 20 mph will be possible. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal through Monday with RH's remaining above 35%. Vent rates will be fair to good Fri but decrease to poor to fair on Sat.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 74 56 77 / 0 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 52 67 50 71 / 10 20 0 0 Las Cruces 54 72 53 74 / 0 20 20 0 Alamogordo 54 73 52 73 / 10 10 20 0 Cloudcroft 39 48 39 57 / 50 50 30 10 Truth or Consequences 56 73 53 75 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 51 70 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 57 74 55 75 / 0 20 20 0 Lordsburg 57 74 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 74 57 77 / 0 20 10 0 Dell City 58 69 55 75 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 59 76 57 79 / 0 10 0 0 Loma Linda 53 65 50 70 / 0 20 0 0 Fabens 60 75 57 78 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 73 55 75 / 0 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 57 74 57 77 / 10 20 20 0 Jornada Range 55 74 53 76 / 0 20 20 0 Hatch 57 77 54 78 / 0 20 20 0 Columbus 59 75 56 77 / 0 20 20 0 Orogrande 54 72 52 74 / 10 20 20 0 Mayhill 45 56 43 67 / 50 60 50 10 Mescalero 45 59 45 67 / 30 40 30 10 Timberon 43 58 41 63 / 30 30 20 10 Winston 46 66 40 70 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 71 51 74 / 10 10 10 0 Spaceport 53 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 68 34 74 / 10 0 10 0 Hurley 53 71 51 73 / 10 10 10 0 Cliff 54 78 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 75 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 70 52 72 / 0 10 10 0 Animas 58 74 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 73 53 74 / 0 10 20 0 Antelope Wells 56 72 54 73 / 0 10 0 10 Cloverdale 55 68 53 70 / 0 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory until 8 AM MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.