textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Wednesday favoring the high terrain.

- Low chance of thunderstorms Thursday through Friday, but mostly limited to Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

- Seasonable temperatures Wednesday, with heat building Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Low pressure system that brought active weather on Tuesday will mosey into central TX Wednesday. The Borderland will remain somewhat ensnared by the low's influence as its western periphery remains on the edge of far west TX. With modest moisture still in place, the lackluster forcing from the back end of the low will lead to isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Gusty winds will be the primary hazard.

Shortwave ridging will take hold as the low ejects towards the MS Valley and a massive Pacific high edges towards the west coast. The rising pressure heights will see a warmup on Thursday, with the lowland deserts and portions of the RGV reaching towards the century mark once again. Meager moisture will remain in place, which may give rise to a storm or two firing off the high terrain of Otero and Hudspeth counties in the afternoon. The large high begins to meander towards the Baja on Friday, allowing for pressure heights to rise even further. This will set the stage for a warming trend starting Friday and lasting through the weekend. By Sunday the high reaches 597dam, centering squarely over the Bootheel. While this will put a majority of the Borderland in a regime of weak northerly flow aloft, oppressive heat will still be on the menu-- the spice level of which is still somewhat uncertain. On the mild side, Heat Advisories will likely be needed at the very least. Should the NBM 75th have its way, a few locales will be in spitting distance of Excessive Heat Warnings.

The high retrogrades back towards the Baja on Monday, offering some relief to the heat. Afternoon highs will see a degree or two reduction compared to Sunday's readings. Pressure heights will fall even more on Tuesday, with temperature reductions of 2F to 5F being seen areawide.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Skies will continue to clear over the next several hours becoming clear by mid morning. Another round of t-storms can be expected this afternoon. Storms initiate over the higher terrain and will spread southward to the desert lowlands. Storms will be less intense than yesterday, but could still produce gusty outflow winds up to 40KT directly under outflows. KTCS has the best shot to see a storm early this afternoon. The remaining terminals do have a shot to see SHRA or TSRA during the late afternoon/early evening hours but did not feel confident enough to mention in TAF. Storms diminish by late evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 538 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Another round of thunderstorms expected today that will initiate over the higher terrain of southern NM and will spread southward throughout the afternoon hours to the lowlands. The main threat will be gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph and blowing dust. Min RH values in the lowlands will range from 10-20% and 20-35% in the area mountains today. Another round of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and will be similar to what we see today, perhaps a bit more coverage on Thursday. Critical min RHs spread everywhere except the Sacramento Mtns Thursday. This trend will continue through the weekend and early next week with continued drying, less and less storm chances each day, and warming temperatures. Wind speeds stay below critical thresholds keeping fire danger elevated each day. Ventilation rates stay good to excellent each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 97 73 102 75 / 10 20 0 10 Sierra Blanca 90 65 95 65 / 10 10 10 20 Las Cruces 94 65 99 67 / 10 20 10 10 Alamogordo 92 63 99 66 / 30 30 10 10 Cloudcroft 70 50 75 52 / 40 20 40 20 Truth or Consequences 94 68 98 69 / 40 30 10 10 Silver City 89 62 91 62 / 30 10 10 0 Deming 98 65 102 67 / 20 20 0 0 Lordsburg 97 64 98 64 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 95 73 101 74 / 10 20 0 10 Dell City 92 65 98 65 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Hancock 98 70 103 70 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 88 67 95 68 / 10 20 10 10 Fabens 97 70 103 69 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 94 68 99 69 / 10 20 0 10 White Sands HQ 94 72 99 74 / 10 30 10 10 Jornada Range 94 63 98 64 / 20 30 10 10 Hatch 97 64 101 65 / 30 20 10 10 Columbus 98 70 101 72 / 10 10 0 0 Orogrande 92 66 98 68 / 10 20 10 10 Mayhill 79 53 86 56 / 50 20 50 10 Mescalero 81 53 86 56 / 40 20 30 20 Timberon 78 52 83 54 / 40 20 30 10 Winston 86 54 89 56 / 50 30 20 10 Hillsboro 92 62 97 64 / 40 20 20 10 Spaceport 93 62 97 63 / 30 30 10 10 Lake Roberts 90 56 93 56 / 40 20 20 0 Hurley 93 62 95 62 / 20 10 10 0 Cliff 97 61 99 60 / 20 10 0 0 Mule Creek 93 60 94 60 / 10 10 0 0 Faywood 91 64 94 65 / 30 20 10 0 Animas 97 66 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 97 65 99 65 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 97 65 99 66 / 10 10 0 10 Cloverdale 92 64 94 65 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.