textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Another round of gusty and dusty thunderstorms is expected Thursday, with storms also spreading into the Sacramento Mountains.

- Blowing dust may return to Lordsburg Playa as early as mid- morning as gusty WNW to NW winds return. Thunderstorm outflows may also bring additional dust later in the day or early evening.

- Drier weather returns for the weekend, with temperatures remaining around 100 to 102 in the lowlands.

- Hotter conditions are possible next week as upper level ridging begins to strengthen.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tomorrow (Thu) will feature a similar setup to today, with NNW low level flow pulling drier air down the Rio Grande Valley, and WNW to NW flow bringing modified Gulf of California moisture into SW New Mexico and along the US-Mexico border, with a convergence line running from the Gila Region down towards El Paso. One difference will be the addition of a weak backdoor cold front, which will push into the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains by midday, with enhanced low level moisture arriving in its wake. The result will scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the convergence line, much like today, but also the Sacramento Mountains.

Another key difference is mid-level winds will be lighter and more variable than on Wednesday, so storms in the Gila will be less prone to drifting south. Thunderstorm chances for El Paso and Las Cruces will be more towards the early evening hours, and will be dependent on outflow from convection in the Sacramentos pushing in from the northeast. Still, it looks like a good shot at more gusty thunderstorms tomorrow.

Broader scale (non-convective) winds will be a little lighter tomorrow as well, WNW to NW winds will still gust around 30 mph even outside of thunderstorms in SW New Mexico. This may be enough to kick up more dust around Lordsburg Playa, even without thunderstorm outflow, possibly starting as early as mid-morning.

For Friday, drier air looks to start to win out, but residual moisture will bring more thunderstorms to the Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth County. Isolated storms could pop up over the Huecos and Black Range as well.

Heading into the weekend we will get progressively drier and warmer, with temperatures pushing Heat Advisory levels again around El Paso and down the Lower Valley starting Monday, and perhaps not easing up through mid-week. Models mostly agree on the subtropical ridge strengthening and drifting just north of the border next week, but whether it parks itself over SW Arizona, or closer to us will be key in determining whether or not we can start ratcheting a few degrees above the 105 mark at ELP Tuesday or Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Breezy W-NW winds persist this morning with some LLWS before the winds above the sfc mix out after sunrise. Gusts to 20-30kts expected through the day, then subsiding overnight. Scattered thunderstorms develop over area mountains this afternoon, pushing south towards the terminals by the evening. Storms may produce gusty/strong winds to 40kts, most likely for KELP. Some time around 0z is when the TAF sites should see some impacts, earlier for KTCS. BLDU may also reduce VIS for KELP after 0z. Storms dissipate by 6z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 516 AM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Breezy west-northwest winds are expected this morning before scattered showers and thunderstorms develop over area mountains this afternoon. Heavy downpours and strong outflow winds are possible into the evening as the convection drifts south into the lowlands. Storm chances will be lower near the Bear Fire. Outside of outflows, winds stay on the breezy side through the afternoon today. Winds relax tonight and Friday with lower storm chances area-wide. A few thunderstorms are possible in the mountains Fri afternoon. Dry and hotter conditions are forecast for the weekend and especially next week with highs over 100 for the lowlands. Humidity trends much drier early next week as fuels worsen.

Min RHs range from 12-30% through Fri, falling to 5-15% by Sun. Vent rates will be good to excellent today, fair to very good Fri, then very good to excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 101 76 102 / 50 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 96 66 98 / 50 20 10 0 Las Cruces 67 98 68 99 / 40 10 0 0 Alamogordo 68 98 70 101 / 30 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 75 53 77 / 40 40 0 0 Truth or Consequences 70 99 72 100 / 20 30 0 0 Silver City 61 91 61 90 / 40 0 0 0 Deming 68 100 68 101 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 96 65 96 / 20 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 74 99 75 100 / 50 0 0 0 Dell City 67 98 68 101 / 70 20 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 102 73 105 / 40 20 0 0 Loma Linda 67 93 68 94 / 60 30 0 0 Fabens 72 102 73 103 / 50 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 98 71 101 / 50 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 99 76 100 / 60 0 0 0 Jornada Range 67 98 69 100 / 50 10 0 0 Hatch 67 102 69 102 / 30 20 0 0 Columbus 74 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 97 68 99 / 40 20 0 0 Mayhill 55 85 57 89 / 40 70 0 10 Mescalero 55 86 57 88 / 60 40 0 0 Timberon 53 82 54 87 / 40 40 0 0 Winston 58 90 60 91 / 30 30 0 0 Hillsboro 66 96 67 97 / 20 30 0 0 Spaceport 64 98 66 100 / 40 30 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 92 56 92 / 30 0 0 0 Hurley 63 94 62 94 / 30 0 0 0 Cliff 61 97 62 97 / 20 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 92 59 92 / 20 0 0 0 Faywood 65 94 65 93 / 30 0 0 0 Animas 64 96 64 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 65 96 65 97 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 66 94 65 96 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 89 62 90 / 10 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.