textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

- Warmer temperatures coming this weekend, pushing lowland highs to the lower to mid 90s.

- An isolated thunderstorm will be possible over parts of eastern Hudspeth County Friday evening. Chances for the odd thunderstorm over the Sacramento Mountains on Sunday are dwindling.

- A very slight cool down on Monday will be followed by warming temperatures again next week, with lowlands highs in the mid-90s common.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a moisture-starved upper low over northern Sonora, with a weak band of very limited moisture lurking just south of the border. A few scant convective showers over northern Chihuahua earlier this evening produced some cirrus blow off, and there are still some debris clouds near and south of the border. Meanwhile, some of these light showers have approached southeastern Hudspeth County, where dewpoints have climbed into the 40s. The odd sprinkle is possible there, mainly east and southeast of Sierra Blanca over the next hour or two. Chances for measurable rainfall are very low.

A trough moving over the northern and central Rockies will cause the upper low to drift to the ESE through Friday afternoon, before sliding east into the Big Bend by evening. While the deeper moisture with dewpoints 50+ will mix out east of the Davis Mountains in the afternoon, some upper-30s to lower-40s dewpoints will persist in Hudspeth County. This may be just enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, likely starting out in the higher terrain south of the border, before drifting into areas south of I-10. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms, and we'll have to watch for some outflow trying to push west towards El Paso in the evening.

A lopsided upper ridge will build into the west coast this weekend, but we'll remain under northwesterly flow aloft. A weak shortwave trough will graze New Mexico on Sunday, accompanied by a weak backdoor "cold front". While we will see a shift to easterly winds up to about the Rio Grande on Sunday, the cooler air will only just lap into the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Elsewhere, temperatures will be fairly steady from Saturday to Sunday, with lower to middle 90s common across the lowlands.

A reinforcing easterly push Sunday night will cool temperatures a few degrees on Monday. The lopsided ridge will build into our area early next week, ramping temperatures back up into the mid-90s again for the lowlands.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period with light breezes and lots of sunshine. Some mid and high level clouds here and there but mostly sunny/clear.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally low to elevated fire weather concerns the next couple days due to very low min RHs. Lowland min RHs will dip as low as single digits this afternoon, tomorrow, and even into Sunday. 20 foot winds will feature light afternoon breezes each day with speeds generally 5-10 mph. The breeziest conditions will be late Sunday and early Monday morning as a cold front pushes in from the Great Plains shifting winds easterly. By Monday, min RHs are still in critical thresholds but values will be anywhere from 13-20% across the lowlands and 25-30% in the Sacramento mountains. Tuesday through Thursday continue to feature critical min RHs across the lowlands (10-15%) and near critical min RHs in the area mountains (upper teens to mid 20s). 20 foot winds will stay light each day with speeds generally 5-10 mph during the afternoon.

Rain chances continue to look bleak through the week ahead. Abnormally warm temperatures expected this weekend. A slight decrease in temperatures Monday post-cold front but temperatures stay quite warm in the middle of the next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 53 91 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 48 68 49 66 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 59 90 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 85 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 94 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 90 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 93 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 95 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 92 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 52 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 94 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 81 53 75 / 0 0 0 20 Mescalero 50 79 51 76 / 0 0 0 20 Timberon 44 76 50 74 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 49 82 53 83 / 0 10 0 0 Hillsboro 59 88 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 90 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 84 41 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 52 88 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 91 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 42 86 45 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 90 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 90 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 91 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.