textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 932 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025 - Morning temperatures near or below freezing for many areas for Monday and Tuesday morning.

- Dry conditions with a warming trend through Thursday with no significant weather impacts. - A late-week storm system brings windy conditions and a low chance of rain and high elevation snow showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 932 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

A dry and quiet weather pattern will occur Monday through Thursday. A high pressure ridge on the west coast and dry northwest flow will maintain a benign weather pattern over the region through Thursday. Today's stronger easterly winds have diminished to light and variable tonight and will continue through Monday night. Winds will become more southwesterly Tuesday through Thursday with speeds around 10 mph. Skies will be sunny and clear for the next several days with very little atmospheric moisture present over the region.

Temperatures Monday morning will be near or below freezing for many areas including the lowlands with the dry atmosphere, light winds ,and clear skies allowing for radiative cooling processes to drop temperatures several degrees below model guidance, especially in low lying areas and valleys. Temperatures will trend warmer through the week as the northwest flow pattern aloft becomes more west to southwest, bringing in a warmer air mass.

For Friday and next weekend the weather pattern will undergo a significant change toward an active state as the main flow pattern begins bringing in what will be a series of low pressure systems from the Pacific into the continental US beginning Friday. The first of these large Winter like systems will move onto the west coast Thursday night and will deepen into a closed low over Arizona by Friday afternoon and move into New Mexico on Saturday, giving the region windy conditions and a mix of lowland rain and mountain snow showers.

The local area will feel the effects of the system with deep southwest flow ahead of the system spreading over New Mexico Friday and and Friday night with a mix of stronger winds and a low (30 Percent) chance of lowland rain showers and high elevation snow showers. Saturday the core of the low pressure system will move the state with an increased chance of rain and high elevation snow showers. Snow accumulations are expected above 7500 feet in the 1 to 3 inch range. These amounts are subject to change as this system is still evolving in the Pacific at this time. Another weather system will impact the area a week from Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 932 PM MST Sun Nov 9 2025

Quiet weather and VFR conditions will persist through Monday night. Light and variable winds through tomorrow evening. Clear skies through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1018 AM MST Sun Nov 9 2025Other than KTCS which will see winds decrease shortly, gusty winds persist through the afternoon from E-SE. The pressure gradient behind the front will ease this evening with light and variable flow returning overnight. No BLDU anticipated into the afternoon. Mainly SKC expected.

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Breezy east winds (10-15 mph) are expected this afternoon behind last night's cold front, which may result in spots of elevated fire weather conditions. Winds will subside tonight for most of the area with the exception of FWZ111 where the pressure gradient remains somewhat tight. Overnight recoveries will be fair to very good tonight. Mostly light winds are expected on Monday, still from the E-SE. For midweek, winds stay light, shifting westerly under an upper ridge while temperatures warm to above normal. A late-week storm system brings breezier winds and a chance of rain and high elevation mtn snow showers. Friday could see elevated fire danger if winds increase ahead of the disturbance. Cooler temps are expected through Tue AM before rebounding.

Min RHs will be 15-25% through Mon, then 10-25% through Thu. Vent rates will be poor to good through Wed, then improving to very good to excellent on Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 67 41 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 33 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 63 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 63 34 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 29 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 64 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 63 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 33 74 37 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 66 32 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 65 31 73 35 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 70 38 76 42 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 38 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 68 36 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 41 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 64 30 71 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 31 74 35 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 67 36 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 62 34 68 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 63 35 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 31 63 35 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 54 28 60 33 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 62 27 70 31 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 65 37 73 42 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 31 70 35 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 67 30 70 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 63 33 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 71 30 74 33 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 69 29 70 34 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 62 36 70 41 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 68 32 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 30 73 36 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 35 76 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Freeze Warning until 9 AM MST Monday for Sierra County Lakes- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.