textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Quiet weather with another dry and breezy day today. Fire weather conditions will be elevated again.

- A pattern change arrives on Thursday as a Pacific system brings scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Friday.

- Backdoor cold front gives us cooler temperatures and breezy east winds late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 PM MDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Zonal upper level flow will be seen tomorrow with another dry day with afternoon breeziness with wind speeds of 10-20 mph that afternoon. A cutoff low will come ashore over Baja California on Thursday but before then virga showers expected early Thursday but will continue to saturate the atmosphere as time goes on. Late Thursday and early Friday seem to be the best chances for rain as this is when the bulk of the upper level energy will be overhead. The cutoff low energy will have made its way across the area by Friday afternoon but a larger upper trough will join the cutoff low energy to keep rain chances going into the day on Friday but could have a brief window of lesser showers. The final lobe of energy with the main upper trough arrives Saturday morning and through the day. Some lingering light shower activity possible late Saturday and into early Sunday. Upper level ridging will be overhead on Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light W winds this AM, becoming gusty to 25kts this afternoon. Winds subside to AOB 10kts after sunset. CIGs gradually lower to the mid-levels tonight, reaching around 15kft. No -SHRA expected through 12z Thu.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 523 AM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

There remains fire weather concerns today due to modestly breezy west winds (10-15 mph) and very dry conditions. Elevated fire danger is forecast this afternoon as clouds increase ahead of a Pacific storm system. Rain showers develop tomorrow with a few embedded thunderstorms possible, peaking Thursday night. Beneficial rainfall is expected with highest amounts to the north and east, including the Lincoln Nat'l Forest. Fuels should be much improved by Saturday as rain showers come to an end. A cold front arrives on Friday, shifting winds easterly and bringing in cooler air into the weekend. Some snow may mix in Friday night for the high elevations of the Sacs with not much accumulation. Drier and breezy conditions return early next week.

Min RHs range from 5-15% today, rising to 20-35% W of the RGV on Fri, 30-70% E of the RGV. Vent rates will be excellent today, falling to poor-good categories E of the RGV on Fri, good-very good W of the RGV.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 64 76 55 72 / 0 40 80 50 Sierra Blanca 62 75 50 65 / 10 30 80 50 Las Cruces 55 72 50 70 / 0 40 70 50 Alamogordo 57 73 48 66 / 0 40 80 80 Cloudcroft 42 52 34 41 / 0 40 90 80 Truth or Consequences 56 75 51 67 / 0 30 60 70 Silver City 49 66 44 67 / 0 40 60 40 Deming 52 75 50 74 / 0 50 70 50 Lordsburg 52 72 47 75 / 0 40 60 20 West El Paso Metro 65 74 56 71 / 0 40 80 50 Dell City 60 77 50 66 / 0 30 80 60 Fort Hancock 67 82 54 75 / 0 30 80 50 Loma Linda 60 70 50 62 / 0 40 80 60 Fabens 65 78 55 74 / 0 30 70 40 Santa Teresa 60 73 52 70 / 0 40 70 40 White Sands HQ 65 74 55 69 / 0 40 80 60 Jornada Range 57 73 48 69 / 0 40 70 60 Hatch 57 75 50 72 / 0 40 70 60 Columbus 60 75 52 75 / 0 40 70 30 Orogrande 59 72 50 65 / 0 40 80 70 Mayhill 47 64 39 50 / 0 40 90 80 Mescalero 46 63 38 51 / 0 40 90 80 Timberon 46 60 37 49 / 0 40 80 80 Winston 44 68 39 61 / 0 30 60 70 Hillsboro 55 72 48 66 / 0 40 60 60 Spaceport 53 73 47 68 / 0 30 70 70 Lake Roberts 44 68 39 67 / 0 40 60 50 Hurley 46 70 43 69 / 0 40 60 40 Cliff 48 73 46 75 / 0 30 50 40 Mule Creek 47 72 43 72 / 0 30 50 30 Faywood 51 68 45 67 / 0 40 70 50 Animas 54 72 48 75 / 0 50 60 20 Hachita 53 71 47 75 / 0 50 70 30 Antelope Wells 56 72 47 74 / 0 50 70 20 Cloverdale 54 67 47 70 / 0 50 60 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.