textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening but thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend and into early next week, especially over the lowlands.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-102; except highs Thursday and Friday from 101 to 106.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

WV shows a moisture gradient across the area with the Gila region having highest moisture and southeast the least. Upper high just off the coast of SoCal with ridge axis extending across the CWA. Looks like a repeat of yesterday with most storms over the NW with some isolated storms on the Sacs. Limited instability but dry low levels would support some modest outflows onto the lowlands. May see some late evening storms move from the north and into Otero county but it looks like those will have a hard time sustaining too far south. Not much change in the pattern for Thu either, but there will be a small increase in low level moisture instability which would support some stronger outflows and some isolated lowland storms going into the evening hours. High temperatures will be the hottest during these days as well with the lowlands in the 100-105 range. May see a couple places above 105 in the lower RGV but for now will hold off on any Heat Advisories.

Fri/Sat will see the upper high build over the Four Corners region and setup a return to NE flow across the area. Moisture remains marginal with surface dew points mainly in the 40s, but stronger flow aloft favoring pushing outflows onto the lowlands from NE to SW will help to trigger storms areawide. NBM PoPs were basically non-existent outside of the mountains east of the RGV and increased both days to isolated/low chance. Temperatures will start a gradual cool down here with the increased moisture.

Going into early next week, the upper high will move further N and a little east onto the Northern Plains. This puts the area in an easterly flow with moisture continuing to increase over the region. Looking at trajectories though, the area will not be in a direct Gulf tap with the best moisture south of us in Mexico streaming up into southern AZ. This could easily change though depending on the exact placement of the high. No matter what, we will have "cooler" temperatures which will be closer to normal which is in the lower to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN200-250 through most of the period. Typical afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms forming over the higher elevations, especially the Gila region again with just a few storms possibly moving onto the lowlands due to outflows. Did not include any mention of thunder except a VCTS around 00Z at KTCS where it looks like the best chances will be, if not rain, at least a stronger outflow. Winds generally southeast AOB 12KTS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The next couple of days will be the biggest fire concern with high temperatures over the lowlands into the 100-105 range and the mountains mainly in the 90s. RH's will fall into the teens with some 20s in the higher elevations. Winds will remain light though as high pressure dominates and just some gusty winds with thunderstorm outflows. The upper high starts to shift northeast this weekend into early next week which will bring in a more favorable monsoonal flow with easterly winds and daily storm chances areawide. Temperatures will be fall off to near normal by early next week and min RH's into the 20s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 102 78 104 / 0 0 20 0 Sierra Blanca 71 96 71 98 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 70 100 72 102 / 10 0 20 0 Alamogordo 73 100 76 101 / 20 20 20 40 Cloudcroft 54 76 57 78 / 30 40 40 60 Truth or Consequences 70 100 74 102 / 10 10 20 20 Silver City 66 94 67 94 / 20 50 40 40 Deming 69 101 71 103 / 0 10 30 20 Lordsburg 70 100 70 100 / 10 20 30 20 West El Paso Metro 75 101 78 103 / 0 0 20 0 Dell City 69 99 72 101 / 0 10 20 20 Fort Hancock 72 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 67 94 71 95 / 0 10 20 20 Fabens 73 102 76 104 / 0 0 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 20 0 White Sands HQ 74 101 79 103 / 10 10 20 10 Jornada Range 68 99 74 102 / 10 10 20 0 Hatch 71 103 73 105 / 10 0 20 10 Columbus 73 104 76 104 / 0 0 20 0 Orogrande 70 101 73 100 / 0 20 20 30 Mayhill 59 89 61 89 / 30 60 50 50 Mescalero 56 88 60 90 / 30 40 30 50 Timberon 55 84 58 86 / 20 30 30 40 Winston 60 91 62 93 / 20 40 40 20 Hillsboro 68 97 70 99 / 10 30 30 20 Spaceport 67 100 70 102 / 10 10 20 10 Lake Roberts 55 94 60 95 / 20 50 50 40 Hurley 67 97 67 98 / 20 50 30 30 Cliff 61 99 67 98 / 20 50 40 20 Mule Creek 58 96 64 97 / 20 30 30 30 Faywood 66 95 67 97 / 20 30 30 30 Animas 68 100 70 100 / 10 20 40 10 Hachita 69 100 69 99 / 10 20 30 10 Antelope Wells 70 99 69 97 / 10 20 40 20 Cloverdale 66 93 65 91 / 0 30 60 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.