textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, mostly along the International Border and across Far West Texas. Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and blowing dust.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the next few days with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph and midday relative humidity 10 to 20%.

- Dry and quiet weather over the weekend, then a chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms next Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Weak upper low detached from the main jet stream well to our north rests off the coast of Baja California today. Light southwest flow aloft ahead of this feature remains over Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. At the surface, a weak lee low over central New Mexico as allowed some meager moisture to move up into the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Surface analysis shows PWs in 0.7-0.9" just to our southeast, mostly across Chihuahua and Big Bend. Surface dewpoints are also favoring areas along the International Border and further south today.

Increased PoPs to mentionable this afternoon for southern Luna/Dona Ana Counties and all of El Paso/Hudspeth Counties due to recent HRRR guidance showing isolated showers and thunderstorms development. NBM guidance wasn't nearly as bullish on precipitation chances as it should be, given current mesoanalysis. I expect spotty, hit-and-miss (20-30% coverage) showers this afternoon, mainly between 2-7 PM. Coverage will favor Northern Chihuahua initially where moisture is more favorable, then moving into portions of Far West Texas mid-afternoon. Any storms that form will be mostly low-QPF and virga showers due to dry low levels. Main concern will be strong outflow winds indicated by "inverted-V" sounding profiles. HRRR shows a wide swath of stronger outflow winds and blowing dust moving north out of Mexico, reaching the Rio Grande valley around the 5-6 PM timeframe, which will be worth monitoring.

Weak Pacific low will make a very slow progression onshore Friday and Saturday before virtually dissipating this weekend, replaced by broad high pressure aloft over the U.S. Southwest. Drier conditions Friday into the weekend as sustained southwest flow flushes moisture out of the region. Warm, typical late May temperatures over the next few days, with lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Sky cover will also be lower, with mostly sunny skies each day.

A second orphan upper low will move ashore the lower Pacific coast on Monday, offering a more favorable fetch of mid-level moisture out of the south and positive vorticity. This should be sufficient for scattered showers and thunderstorms, almost area wide on Monday and Tuesday. Current forecast has 50-70% chances for rain this timeframe, favoring New Mexico's high terrain. Latter half of the week looks dry on the both global models, also indicating a warmup.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Prevailing conditions wind 220-240 at 10-15 knots with skies SCT- BKN100. Isolated -TSRA across S Chihuahua and along International Border this afternoon with CB approaching KELP between 21-01Z. Storms will be capable of temporary VRB30G40KT and BLDU with VIS 2-4SM. Will amend KELP TAF as conditions change this evening. Conditions expected to remain VFR through forecast period at S NM terminals. Overnight conditions SKC with surface winds 240-290 at 05-10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu May 21 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions for Southwest New Mexico on Friday with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph and Min RH 10 to 15%. Winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Skies will be clear with Very Good vent rates. Typical late May temperatures. Even lighter winds over the weekend as surface humidity remains very low. Afternoon cumulus growth over local forests are not expected to result in any rain.

Higher moisture across Southern New Mexico will improve fire conditions for Lincoln and Gila National Forests early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, with min RH increasing to 20-30%. Rainfall will be quite low and not expected to change ERCs long-term. There will be a risk for new lightning starts and gusty outflow winds Monday/Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 89 65 90 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 84 57 84 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 86 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 42 64 43 66 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 56 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 79 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 88 56 90 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 53 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 87 64 88 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 54 89 55 89 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 91 62 92 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 81 58 82 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 59 90 61 91 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 86 58 87 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 89 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 62 88 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 85 56 86 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 77 48 77 / 10 10 0 20 Mescalero 46 75 46 77 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 43 73 44 74 / 10 0 0 10 Winston 46 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 86 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 82 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 85 49 88 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 47 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 84 55 85 / 10 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 78 54 80 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.