textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 421 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Isolated thunderstorms will move into SW New Mexico this afternoon and early evening.

- Rain showers will increase in coverage across the area this evening into Saturday morning, and linger east of the Rio Grande on Saturday. A few snow flakes could mix in at the highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains, with no accumulation.

- Very cool temperatures will accompany the rain and clouds, with highs running 10 to 15 degrees below normal on Saturday.

- Temperatures will return to near normal by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

Upper level system is on tract, with a closed low dropping south along the Lower Colorado River Valley, and increasing moisture and diffluence aloft.

A few thunderstorms over Cochise County, AZ will likely work into parts of Hidalgo County, NM in the next hour or two. Otherwise, expect showers to become light to moderate as they increase in coverage across the area, especially after dark.

NBM/ForeastBuilder tried to produce a bit too much rain/snow mix over the Sacramento Mountains. Expect nearly-saturated conditions and a cold rain late tonight into Saturday, with accumulating snow levels above 10-11K feet, and brief mixing down to around 9000 feet, with no impacts. Most areas will see beneficial rainfall amounts of around 0.10 to 0.25 inches from this system, and a few pockets over 0.50 inches, mainly east of El Paso.

Tomorrow will be soup or stew weather over ELP and LRU. Cloudy, showery, and damp, with highs stuck in the upper-50s in the lowlands, and upper-30s in the Sacramentos.

Quieter weather overall next week, though a disorganized trough will skirt the area Tuesday night, with a spotty shower or two not out of the question. Otherwise, expect slowly warming temperatures, back to near normal (lower-70s in the lowlands) by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 421 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

Rain showers moving in from the Arizona-New Mexico state line could cause visibilities to drop to MVFR levels at some points during the night, but otherwise, conditions will generally be VFR. Winds will continue to prevail from the east at 8-12 kt. Skies will mainly be OVC as the day progresses and the rain showers continue, some temporary bouts of moderate rain are possible in the overnight hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM MST Fri Nov 6 2026

An upper level disturbance will bring widespread clouds, and light to moderate rain showers to the wider region through Saturday. Rain will linger the longest near and east of the Rio Grande on Saturday, but most areas will see wetting rainfall. Temperatures will be held back well below normal, with highs in the upper-30s above 8000 feet. and much of the lowlands stuck in the upper-50s and lower-60s. This will be about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. A few snow flakes could briefly mix in at the highest elevations.

Vent rates will generally be poor, except in SW New Mexico in the afternoon. Less favorable vent rates will be a challenge until mid week when deeper mixing and warmer temperatures arrive.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 57 48 61 / 80 50 20 20 Sierra Blanca 47 53 46 55 / 80 100 50 60 Las Cruces 47 56 44 60 / 80 30 10 10 Alamogordo 45 60 42 63 / 70 70 20 10 Cloudcroft 37 38 32 42 / 80 80 10 20 Truth or Consequences 47 61 44 64 / 50 30 0 0 Silver City 42 57 39 60 / 70 10 0 0 Deming 44 57 43 61 / 70 30 10 0 Lordsburg 44 59 42 63 / 50 20 0 0 West El Paso Metro 52 56 51 60 / 70 50 20 20 Dell City 47 57 47 60 / 60 70 30 40 Fort Hancock 49 62 50 64 / 80 90 40 40 Loma Linda 43 50 43 54 / 70 60 20 20 Fabens 49 59 48 63 / 70 70 30 20 Santa Teresa 47 55 46 59 / 70 40 10 10 White Sands HQ 49 57 47 62 / 80 60 10 10 Jornada Range 44 59 43 63 / 70 60 10 0 Hatch 46 62 44 66 / 80 30 10 0 Columbus 47 57 47 60 / 70 60 30 20 Orogrande 46 57 44 61 / 70 50 20 10 Mayhill 38 46 35 52 / 70 70 20 20 Mescalero 39 51 35 56 / 80 70 10 10 Timberon 39 46 35 52 / 80 80 10 10 Winston 38 54 34 58 / 50 30 0 0 Hillsboro 43 58 42 62 / 70 40 0 0 Spaceport 45 60 42 64 / 70 40 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 58 35 62 / 50 10 0 0 Hurley 42 57 39 61 / 60 10 0 0 Cliff 43 66 39 68 / 40 10 0 0 Mule Creek 38 62 37 64 / 40 10 0 0 Faywood 45 56 42 59 / 60 10 0 0 Animas 44 57 44 61 / 70 50 10 0 Hachita 42 56 43 60 / 70 50 10 10 Antelope Wells 44 55 45 58 / 60 60 30 20 Cloverdale 43 53 44 55 / 80 60 20 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.