textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

- Record-breaking heat will arrive Wednesday, and will last through the weekend. The hot temperatures will peak Friday through Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle nineties across the desert lowlands.

- Many locations are likely to break their all time record highs for the month of March. For El Paso, that record is 93 degrees, and highs are likely to top out between 95 to 97 degrees.

- Relative humidity values will drop to around 5 percent in the lowlands during the worst heat. But light winds are expected, mitigating fire weather concerns in the immediate future. But the rapid drying of fuels is a concern, as winds are bound to return in the coming weeks.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Transition day today as we head towards record-breaking heat for March. Still quite a bit of leftover suspended dust in the air from behind Sunday night's backdoor front. This suggests we're still in the cooler, but modifying post-frontal air mass, and this morning's sounding shows a multi-layered inversion topping out at around 550 mb. Temperatures seemed to be a little slow to increase, but are actually within a degree or two of the hourly NBM grids. Dewpoints in the upper single digits to lower 10s should also help with more efficient warming, so the going- forecast with highs in the upper-70s to near 80 isn't too far- fetched.

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a broad ridge building across the southwest, centered just off the southern California coast. This ridge will strengthen (about 5960m) and broaden as it drifts east, parking itself over the Lower Colorado Basin (AZ/CA border) for the latter part of the week.

As a result, we'll see temperatures continue to increase over the next few days, with mid to upper 80s in the lowlands tomorrow, and cracking the 90 degree mark on Thursday. Then we'll level off in the 95 to 97 degree range (at ELP) for Friday through Sunday.

In case you haven't memorized it from previous AFDs yet, the All Time March Record High at El Paso is 93 degrees, and we're currently looking to beat that by 2 to 3 degrees.

Despite the unusually hot temperatures for this time of year, they still fall short of Advisory and Warning criteria. Briefings, Special Weather Statements, and graphicasts should suffice.

A weak backdoor cold front will try to take the edge off temperatures on Monday as the upper ridge axis weakens and sinks to our south. But with steady westerly flow, it'll have its work cut out for it. The 12Z GFS doesn't even quite make it to the Continental Divide, which is concerning this far out.

Deterministic forecast grids drop ELP to 89 Monday, but uncertainty is creeping in. If the front doesn't make it, lower 90s will be more likely.

A weak shortwave trough moving across Colorado on Tuesday doesn't look very impressive now (in terms of breezy winds), but we'll have to keep an eye on that for Fire Weather. There's some hints that later next week could be breezier.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds southwest/west 7-10 knots until 03Z, then variable AOB 7 knots. After 06Z winds turning north at 7-10G17 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM MDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Fire weather concerns will be minimal through the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure aloft brings unusually hot temperatures to the area, and very dry conditions, but little wind. The main concern will be with rapid drying of fuels and where that will put us once the ridge finally breaks down.

Temperatures by Friday will be about 20 to 25 degrees above normal (well into the 90s for the lowlands), with Min RH values dropping to around 3 to 6 percent in the lowlands, and 8 to 10 percent even in the higher terrain.

A weak backdoor front will try to take the edge off temperatures on Monday, but there's a chance it'll fail to push west of the Sacramento/Guadalupes. Temperatures will be a few degrees off their peak as the ridge weakens and drifts south.

Beyond that, we'll need to closely monitor for increasing winds as we'll be left with a tinderbox once the heat subsides.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 52 87 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 82 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 46 84 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 43 86 47 90 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 65 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 85 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 48 81 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 46 88 49 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 43 84 45 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 86 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 40 86 43 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 90 49 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 45 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 49 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 85 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 54 86 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 38 86 40 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 89 43 93 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 51 87 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 42 84 46 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 41 76 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 38 76 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 38 73 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 42 79 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 51 84 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 86 43 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 29 83 30 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 83 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 88 39 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 33 86 35 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 83 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 47 85 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 84 49 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 84 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 81 54 86 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.