textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

- Breezy southwest winds this afternoon, lingering tonight along mountain east slopes. Patchy blowing dust possible along the International Border.

- Warm and dry weather over the weekend, with lowland highs warming into the mid to upper 90s.

- Increasing moisture next week will lead to more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be next Tuesday and Wednesday but rain chances could last through the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Closed low aloft currently over Las Vegas will maintain a southwest flow regime over the El Paso region today. Tap of subtropical moisture aloft evident in scattered mid level alto cumulus and high level cirrus across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. This band of cirrus will drift east through the afternoon, becoming clear tonight. Lingering moisture east of the Rio Grande may result in very isolated (5-10%) rain showers across portions of Hudspeth County this afternoon, but El Paso and Las Cruces will remain dry. This area of slightly higher moisture will be visible via more scattered cumulus later today. No significant precipitation is expected.

Upper low progresses over the Northern Rockies over the weekend, lifting north further away from the area in the process. Dry, mostly zonal flow over the weekend will further flush any moisture out of the forecast area. Conditions will be sunny and very dry Saturday and Sunday, allowing temperatures to warm. Lowlands can expect high in the mid to upper 90s by Sunday, with another shot at El Paso's first 100-degree day of the year on Monday. No concerns with winds either given weak pressure gradients and lee low formation so far north it won't even affect us.

All signs point to an early onset of the 2026 Monsoon Season, with global models showing a northerly track of the polar jet and consistent development of a subtropical high over the Gulf states. Good confidence in Texas seeing above normal precipitation the first week of June, with a favorable tap of moisture out of the south.

For the El Paso region, moisture increases will first be seen on Monday, with PWs increasing to 0.8-1.0" by the evening hours. We may see isolated thunderstorms over the high terrain that afternoon, but may not be unstable enough for lowland coverage. Further moisture increases occur on Tuesday, with PWs 1.1-1.3". Any weak shortwaves within the prevailing troughing flow along the Pacific coast will generate widespread (60-80%) thunderstorm coverage for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Best window for storms will be Tuesday-Thursday next week, with the current forecast showing good chances area wide. Storms will be capable of localized flooding, any gusty outflow winds that can kick up dust.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft. Surface winds 220-250 at 15 to 20 knots sustained this afternoon. Peak gusts up to 35 knots, especially across SW NM and KTCS. Monitoring for BLDU at KDMN/KELP, but not expecting VIS below 5SM this afternoon. Skies FEW-SCT120, with SCT-BKN250 across W TX. Winds will remain strong into early Saturday morning at KELP, close to 20G30KT through 08Z due to downslope wind off mtns. Skies becoming SKC Saturday morning with continued WSW flow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri May 29 2026

Near Critical fire weather conditions on Saturday as dry flow out of Arizona further pushes moisture out of the area. Min RH falling to 8 to 12% across Southern New Mexico, with southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. No Red Flag planned for local forests due to winds below critical thresholds. Sunny skies with good afternoon mixing. Very Good ventilation rates with transport to the ENE. Sunday will also be extremely dry, though lighter winds will reduce the risk of large fire growth.

Increasing moisture next week will reduce fire weather conditions as widespread thunderstorm coverage is expected to bring wetting rains across Lincoln and Gila National Forests. Best chances for rain will be during the afternoon hours Tuesday-Thursday, with storms capable of flash flooding and gusty outflow winds. New fire starts will be a concern initially next week, with plenty of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes and ERCs still near the 90th percentiles dryness. Fuel moisture will increase as storm chances continue through mid-June, but the concern next week will be lightning starts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 69 90 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 88 58 93 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 57 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 62 87 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 65 45 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 88 59 91 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 78 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 89 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 53 85 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 66 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 90 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 68 95 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 61 83 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 65 92 60 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 68 88 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 87 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 90 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 62 91 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 60 86 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 78 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 51 75 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 48 73 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 80 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 80 45 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 49 82 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 85 50 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 46 80 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 81 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 86 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 87 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 51 81 53 86 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.