textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 5:15 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100 degrees. Widespread Heat Advisories in effect today. Heat Advisories in effect for southern Dona Ana, El Paso and the Lower Valley Thursday. - Some moisture gives the area, mostly mountains, a slight chance of rain Wednesday through Friday.

- Dry and breezy conditions over the weekend will result in near critical fire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Big bubble of high pressure stays anchored over the area again Wednesday leading to another very hot day. Pretty much of all the lowland zones across the CWA will be under a Heat Advisory tomorrow with high temperatures around 100F degrees to as hot as 108F. In addition, some moisture is trapped under this high pressure which will allow for some thunderstorm chances, mostly in the area mountains and high terrain. Surface dewpoints will be in the 30-40 degree range tomorrow which will certainly add to the dry lightning concern. High pressure weakens slightly by Thursday with the center of the high shifted southward. Expect another hot day Thursday, but won't be quite as hot as Wednesday, perhaps just a few degrees cooler. Heat Advisories will still be in effect Thursday for southern Dona Ana county, El Paso, and the lower valley. Slight increase in surface dewpoints Thursday to 40-45 degrees, as well as PW, so moisture is still trapped under the high pressure but with daytime heating and orographic effects, we can continue to see some chances of thunderstorms and showers with the best chances being in the area mountains. Somewhat drier air pushes in Friday from the NW with the better moisture being pushed into far west TX. This trend continues through the weekend with the push and pull of moisture. Best moisture looks to be in far west TX which is where the best chances for storms should be. Meanwhile, the aforementioned high will have broken down over the area and moved east over the Gulf. An upper trough over the PacNW should take shape this weekend allowing for some breezier conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-BKN250 plus FEW-SCT130 this afternoon. Winds will become westerly (240-280) with speeds topping out around 10 knots and gusts of 20-25 knots. Later this afternoon and evening, ISO SHRA/TSRA and/or virga will develop across the area. The main impact will be gusty outflow winds along with an attendant risk for BLDU.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

It will be hot again today with low afternoon humidity, dropping into the single digits in the lowlands. In spite of the very dry low-levels, showers and thunderstorms will try to develop though much of the precipitation will not reach the ground. This will lead to a risk for dry lightning, especially across the Gila. There will also be a risk for gusty winds. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, winds will top out between 5 and 10 MPH with occasional gusts to 20 MPH. Venting will range from good to very good.

Moisture increases a bit more for Thursday, and this will bring a bit higher chance for showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon highs will also be a few degrees cooler. By Friday, moisture will start to decrease again but so will afternoon highs. This weekend will be breezy with low afternoon humidity continuing, leading to at least elevated fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 105 77 103 / 0 30 30 0 Sierra Blanca 72 101 70 98 / 10 20 20 0 Las Cruces 72 102 69 100 / 10 20 20 0 Alamogordo 72 102 70 100 / 10 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 55 79 55 78 / 10 20 20 10 Truth or Consequences 72 100 70 99 / 10 30 10 10 Silver City 67 94 64 93 / 10 10 10 0 Deming 71 104 68 102 / 10 10 10 0 Lordsburg 70 100 67 99 / 10 10 10 0 West El Paso Metro 78 103 75 101 / 0 30 30 0 Dell City 71 104 70 102 / 10 20 30 0 Fort Hancock 77 107 75 104 / 10 30 30 0 Loma Linda 72 97 70 95 / 10 30 30 0 Fabens 77 106 74 104 / 0 30 30 0 Santa Teresa 74 102 72 101 / 10 30 30 0 White Sands HQ 78 103 76 101 / 10 20 20 0 Jornada Range 71 102 69 100 / 10 20 20 0 Hatch 72 105 70 103 / 10 20 30 0 Columbus 76 104 73 102 / 10 20 30 0 Orogrande 71 101 69 99 / 10 30 30 0 Mayhill 60 91 60 90 / 10 20 10 10 Mescalero 58 90 58 89 / 10 20 20 10 Timberon 58 88 57 87 / 10 10 20 10 Winston 61 91 59 91 / 10 30 10 10 Hillsboro 70 99 67 98 / 10 20 10 0 Spaceport 68 101 66 100 / 10 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 60 94 59 93 / 10 20 0 0 Hurley 68 98 65 96 / 10 10 10 0 Cliff 67 100 65 98 / 10 10 10 0 Mule Creek 65 95 64 94 / 10 20 0 0 Faywood 69 97 66 95 / 10 10 10 0 Animas 70 100 68 99 / 10 20 10 10 Hachita 70 100 66 99 / 10 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 70 100 68 98 / 20 20 30 0 Cloverdale 67 94 65 93 / 10 20 20 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.