textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 526 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Thunderstorm chances will increase today and Tuesday, diminish a bit for Wednesday, then ramp up again late in the week. As usual, chances will be highest in the high terrain.

- Temperatures will cool to near normal in Southwestern New Mexico through the week. They will hover about 5 degrees above normal near and east of the Rio Grande, but most lowland areas will see highs drop below 100 from Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

The subtropical ridge continues its crawl to the east and now barely extends into eastern New Mexico, as upper level troughing over the west coast continues to edge in. As expected, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms have moved up across Arizona into the Four Corners region overnight and this morning. The temperature contrast from west to east has also set up a steady W to WNW wind in southwestern New Mexico. This has advected in deeper low level moisture, and dewpoints in the 60s can still be found across the San Simon and Animas Valley. 50s are common through Luna and western Sierra Counties, and east of El Paso, with 40s around the Mesilla Valley and Tularosa Basin.

Expect convection to continue to build over the high terrain through this afternoon, favoring western areas initially. Isolated thunderstorms will develop over desert mountain ranges later this afternoon, independent of outflow boundary interactions, helped along by weak low level convergence associated with a thermal trough along the Rio Grande. By evening outflow from the west will help enhance the low level convergence, with thunderstorm coverage increasing to scattered in the south-central lowlands, including around Las Cruces, and potentially in or near El Paso as well.

Localized flooding can't be completely ruled out in parts of the Gila and Bootheel Regions, where south-to-north echo training may occur. Rain will be steadiest in the Bootheel, where PWAT values are hovering around 1.25 inches. This areas will also be closest to weak shortwave troughs riding up in SSW flow near the Arizona border, loosely associated with a sharper trough located over southern Nevada.

The overnight hours are a little less certain, as some high res models suggest nocturnal showers and storms continuing in the south-central lowlands through about midnight. This appears to be due to increasing low level convergence along the Rio Grande (aided by outflow boundaries), coupled with weak shortwave troughs continuing to graze the area, all located under a broad region of upper level diffluent flow high aloft.

For Tuesday, the main trough in Nevada will lift into Wyoming, with weakening upper level support in New Mexico. Upper level divergence shifts to eastern New Mexico, but a surface trough will still linger east of the Rio Grande. The HRRR is particularly optimistic about precip chances near and east of the Rio Grande Tuesday afternoon, with sharply lower chances in southwestern New Mexico (further away from the upper level support, and likely worked-over in terms of instability after today).

The western limb of the ridge tries to rebuild in Wednesday, reducing precip coverage, especially east of the Rio Grande, though some moisture will begin working into SW New Mexico again. Persistent western troughing looks to nudge into the ridge late in the week, increasing overall moisture (PWAT 1.2-1.4 inches) and favoring an uptick in thunderstorms again through at least Saturday.

Temperatures will remain a little above normal, but we look to stay in the mid to upper-90s for most of the lowlands after today.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

A convective complex is heading N out of MX to begin the period, bringing gusts to 30kts with a preceding outflow. Low chance of TS this evening (~30%) for all TAF sites as storms progress to the N. BLDU may accompany the outflow for the southern 3 terminals around 2z. Further shower and storm development is possible towards midnight, then dissipating and pushing N. Winds subside after midnight to AOB 8kts, shifting W-SW.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 153 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Thunderstorm chances increase today, especially in SW New Mexico, and shifting into areas east of the Rio Grande for Tuesday. Thunderstorm coverage looks to dip on Wednesday, but return Thursday into the weekend, favoring the higher terrain and southwestern New Mexico. Wetting rains will boost RH values overall, and temperatures will trend closer to normal west of the Divide, and around 5 degrees above normal to the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 97 73 98 / 30 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 66 93 67 94 / 20 30 20 0 Las Cruces 68 96 67 97 / 40 20 10 0 Alamogordo 69 95 69 98 / 30 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 52 72 52 72 / 30 60 20 20 Truth or Consequences 70 93 70 94 / 30 20 20 0 Silver City 61 86 61 88 / 30 10 10 10 Deming 68 96 67 97 / 30 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 92 66 93 / 40 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 96 75 97 / 30 20 10 0 Dell City 70 98 70 99 / 20 20 20 0 Fort Hancock 72 100 73 101 / 30 30 20 0 Loma Linda 67 90 68 91 / 30 30 20 0 Fabens 71 98 72 99 / 40 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 95 71 96 / 30 20 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 96 73 97 / 30 40 10 0 Jornada Range 69 95 68 96 / 30 30 10 0 Hatch 70 99 69 100 / 40 20 10 0 Columbus 72 96 72 97 / 50 10 10 0 Orogrande 68 94 68 95 / 40 20 20 0 Mayhill 56 84 57 85 / 20 50 20 30 Mescalero 55 83 56 84 / 40 60 20 20 Timberon 54 82 54 82 / 20 30 20 10 Winston 57 84 57 86 / 40 30 20 20 Hillsboro 67 93 66 94 / 50 20 10 10 Spaceport 68 95 67 96 / 30 20 20 0 Lake Roberts 56 86 55 87 / 30 20 10 10 Hurley 62 90 62 91 / 30 10 10 0 Cliff 64 93 63 95 / 30 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 89 60 90 / 30 10 0 0 Faywood 65 89 65 91 / 40 10 10 0 Animas 65 91 66 92 / 60 10 10 10 Hachita 65 91 66 92 / 50 10 10 0 Antelope Wells 64 90 65 91 / 70 10 10 10 Cloverdale 61 84 63 85 / 70 10 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.