textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Breezy to windy into Monday.

- Storms will be capable of heavy rain, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo Counties. Storms may also produce damaging winds and a brief, weak tornado.

- Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday with temperatures remaining seasonable.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Unsettled weather is forecast for the short-term. Plentiful moisture has moved over the region, exhibited by our 12z (!) RAOB, which collected 1.21" of PWs. Normal for early Nov is about 0.4". This is courtesy of the subtropical jet being pulled northward ahead of a deep longwave trough moving into the Great Basin today. We'll be in the right entrance region of the jet with good speed shear and modest instability. Only about 500 J/kg of SBCAPE are modeled for this afternoon with higher values to the east into SE NM. Excellent 0-6km shear of 50kts is modeled by the REFS later today as the jet streak moves overhead. All the cloud cover streaming overhead may inhibit how unstable we get later today, but the favorable jet/frontal dynamics should help overcome that in terms of convective initiation.

The Pacific front will push through S NM this evening with a wave of showers and storms ahead of it, forming what appears to be a squall line. Strong-severe wind gusts are possible from this convective line as it progresses W to E into the overnight. SPC has increased our severe risk for today/tonight with a portion of Otero and Sierra counties now in a SLGT for damaging winds and an isolated tornado. 0-1km SRH should exceed 100 m2/s2 in some areas through the evening, favoring northern areas for the marginal tornado threat. Eastern NM is most likely to see tornadoes through tonight. The rain/storm threat will diminish for far west TX as the best dynamics track to the northeast.

Flood Watch remains in effect for the Gila through the evening where moisture and jet dynamics are most favorable. Repeated rounds of rain are forecast with isolated amounts of 1-2" and a few instances of flash flooding, especially in areas that have received heavy rainfall recently. The flood threat lowers as you head south and east. Rain chances largely end by the early AM Mon.

Breezy to strong synoptic winds are forecast as well with this system, increasing to near advisory level in the Gila this afternoon, shifting E overnight to the San Andres/Organs and then the Sacs. The strongest winds are expected in the Sacs with gusts to 60-70 mph possible along ridges and east slopes into the day on Mon. Wind headlines have been posted to reflect these hazards. Elsewhere, breezy conditions are expected with gusts to around 40 mph, continuing into Mon mainly E of the RGV.

Dry and calmer winds after Mon with seasonal temps under quasi- zonal flow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

Increasing winds this afternoon, gusting near 30kts from SW. Winds shift more W this evening with frontal passage. Winds stay gusty through the overnight. Front also brings a wave of showers/storms in the evening, highest confidence for KDMN and KTCS in seeing TS. MVFR criteria due to CIGs/heavy rainfall possible. Strong gusts possible from TS. Rain moves out around midnight with clearing skies later in period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 935 AM MST Sun Nov 1 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the period. Pacific front brings a wave of showers/storms through the evening, some producing high rain rates and damaging winds. Flood threat is highest in the Gila with the severe threat across northern areas. Rain chances diminish for areas to south and east. Breezy SW winds develop this afternoon, shifting W overnight. Breezy winds progress eastward on Mon with lighter winds out west. Winds subside for Tue, staying light for the rest of the week. No chance of rain starting Mon with cooler temps.

Min RHs range from 40-80% today, then 30-50%. Vent rates will be good to excellent through Mon, then mostly poor on Tue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 59 70 48 69 / 50 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 70 45 66 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 53 65 43 66 / 80 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 68 43 65 / 90 20 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 44 31 48 / 90 40 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 69 44 67 / 80 10 0 0 Silver City 46 58 36 63 / 90 40 0 0 Deming 51 65 40 68 / 90 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 63 39 66 / 90 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 69 50 68 / 60 10 0 0 Dell City 57 71 47 68 / 30 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 77 51 73 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 54 63 45 63 / 50 10 0 0 Fabens 60 74 49 71 / 30 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 67 46 67 / 60 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 67 47 67 / 80 10 0 0 Jornada Range 53 67 43 67 / 80 0 0 0 Hatch 53 70 44 70 / 90 0 0 0 Columbus 56 69 45 69 / 80 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 67 44 65 / 80 10 0 0 Mayhill 46 57 37 60 / 80 10 0 0 Mescalero 44 55 34 59 / 90 50 0 0 Timberon 42 55 32 56 / 90 20 0 0 Winston 44 61 34 63 / 90 10 0 0 Hillsboro 51 68 41 66 / 90 10 0 0 Spaceport 51 69 41 67 / 80 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 59 32 66 / 90 50 0 0 Hurley 45 61 35 64 / 90 30 0 0 Cliff 50 66 39 70 / 90 40 0 0 Mule Creek 45 61 35 66 / 90 40 0 0 Faywood 48 60 39 64 / 90 10 0 0 Animas 50 66 40 68 / 90 10 0 0 Hachita 50 65 39 67 / 90 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 69 42 69 / 90 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 62 40 65 / 90 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM MST Monday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.