textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Increasing moisture and a series of upper level disturbances will bring several days with improved thunderstorm chances. Storms may get off to a slow start this afternoon, but chances look to increase this evening and late tonight, especially near and west of the Rio Grande.

- The threat of localized flash flooding will spread across the area tonight into Friday, and may linger in Hudspeth County on Saturday.

- High temperatures will drop to near normal for much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Moisture is well in place across the Borderland with a nice moisture plume noticeable on WV extending well south into Mexico. Currently the deepest moisture is over eastern AZ into western NM but as upper trough associated with upper low over the Pacific NW shifts eastward, so will the moisture plume. A series of disturbances moving north out of Mexico will interact with the moisture and bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. Through Thursday, best rain chances are west of the RGV but as we get into Thu night and into Sat, the focus shifts to the east. PW's of 1.3-1.5" will make storms very efficient with locally heavy rainfall possible and the wind flow out of the south could lead to some training. Extended the Flood Watch in the Gila to go through 12Z Thu and issued one for the lowlands west of the RGV as well as the Sacs for 18Z Wed-12Z Thu. Expect this will have to be pushed east later in the week. There will be some increased wind shear as the trough approaches which could lead to a few stronger/low end severe out west Wed/Thu. Preferred NBM PoPs over MAV/MET PoPs further east in the next couple of days with so much moisture around, it won't take much to trigger a storm.

As the upper trough pushes east during the day Sat, drier air quickly moves in. EC is in line with the GFS as far as this timing, so little to no rain chances as we head into Sunday/Mon. Maybe another moisture surge after that, but still a lot of inconsistency in models with regards to handling of next trough over the southwest.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

P6SM SCT-BKN080-100 BKN120-150 through most of the period. A little lesser cloud cover as you head southeast. There will be showers and thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon and continuing into the overnight hours. Best chances will be west of a KELP-KALM line but all locations could see a storm. Heavy rain will be the main impact with these storms and the strongest could have 1-3SM +TSRA BKN030-050. Winds generally light but outflows could gust over 30KTS and any that move out of Mexico could have some blowing dust, mainly affecting KELP this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Tue Sep 15 2026

No fire threats over the next week as plenty of moisture will be around through the end of the week with RH's staying above 25% with most areas above 35%. There will be a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms, initially having the best chances west of the RGV but shifting east as we get into Thu and Fri. Winds will not be a concern. Vent rates will be fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 69 92 69 91 / 70 30 40 10 Sierra Blanca 64 89 65 90 / 40 20 10 0 Las Cruces 65 89 65 88 / 70 30 70 10 Alamogordo 66 87 65 90 / 50 60 50 20 Cloudcroft 49 65 49 67 / 50 80 40 50 Truth or Consequences 65 85 66 84 / 70 50 80 30 Silver City 60 78 59 80 / 70 50 90 30 Deming 66 89 63 88 / 60 30 90 10 Lordsburg 66 84 64 84 / 40 60 60 10 West El Paso Metro 70 91 70 91 / 60 30 50 10 Dell City 67 92 67 92 / 50 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 71 93 69 95 / 50 20 20 10 Loma Linda 65 86 65 86 / 50 40 40 20 Fabens 69 92 69 92 / 70 30 40 10 Santa Teresa 67 89 67 89 / 60 20 60 10 White Sands HQ 70 91 69 90 / 60 40 60 10 Jornada Range 65 88 65 88 / 70 40 70 10 Hatch 66 89 66 88 / 80 30 80 10 Columbus 68 89 67 89 / 60 30 70 10 Orogrande 65 89 65 88 / 60 50 50 20 Mayhill 55 79 54 79 / 50 80 40 50 Mescalero 53 77 53 78 / 50 80 50 60 Timberon 53 77 52 76 / 50 70 50 40 Winston 56 76 56 76 / 70 70 80 70 Hillsboro 65 84 63 84 / 60 50 90 30 Spaceport 63 86 63 86 / 80 40 80 20 Lake Roberts 56 78 55 80 / 70 60 90 50 Hurley 61 80 60 82 / 60 50 90 20 Cliff 63 84 62 86 / 60 60 90 30 Mule Creek 61 80 60 82 / 60 60 90 50 Faywood 63 82 62 82 / 70 50 90 20 Animas 66 84 64 86 / 50 70 70 20 Hachita 64 84 63 85 / 60 60 80 10 Antelope Wells 64 86 64 87 / 60 70 60 30 Cloverdale 62 79 61 83 / 60 70 60 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Upper Gila River Valley.

Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.