textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

- An upper level disturbance will bring a diminishing band of rain showers into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday. West winds will gust 30 to 40 mph across the region.

- Warmer weather will arrive later this week. Temperatures will rise into the 90s across the lowlands this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026 Plenty of high clouds streaming into the area this afternoon, all steered into the area around an upper low over central California. Breezy conditions will continue to develop through the early evening hours, with some gusts 25 to 30 mph possible.

The upper low will slowly roll towards the lower Colorado River valley Tuesday afternoon. Some deeper moisture will work into the area, with a band of showers diminishing in intensity as they move into southwestern New Mexico. Best chance for light wetting rain will be in the Gila Region, and to a lesser extent the Sacramento Mountains, as most of the showers will dissipate as they approach the Rio Grande.

For the rest of us, breezy to windy conditions are expected, with gusts 35 to 40 mph in the afternoon. This is not likely to raise up much dust, but we'll have to keep an eye on Lordsburg Playa.

The original upper low will lift into northern New Mexico as an open trough Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough diving down the backside of the upper low will pinch off into another upper low over the northern Gulf of California by Wednesday night. This low will drift east, only reaching the Big Bend by Saturday. But, it will be completely void of upper level moisture. Models suggest some very light precip will try to get coughed up south of the border, and behind a very weak backdoor front on Thursday, but precip chances on our side of the border look to be very low.

In the wake of the low, increasing westerly flow aloft will bring temperatures back up into the 80s by Friday, with 90s possible in the lowlands this weekend, something we haven't seen since... oh right, March.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 510 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Gusty W winds last into the overnight to 20-25kts with low-level winds near or above 30kts. Sfc winds increase further Tue afternoon, gusting to 30-35kts. AWW criteria is likely to be met later in the period at KELP along with possible BLDU and VIS to MVFR thresholds. Lowered VIS is also possible at KDMN and KLRU, but confidence is lower. BKN200-250 continue to pass overhead into tomorrow with CIGs down to 10kft for KDMN and KTCS. Cannot rule out isolated sprinkles out west Tue AM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

An upper level disturbance will bring a diminishing band of showers into southwestern New Mexico on Tuesday, along with breezy to windy conditions. Despite wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph Tuesday afternoon, fire weather conditions will be mitigated due to recent rainfall (ERCs mostly around 50th percentile now), and an increase in humidity with the incoming system (minimum RHs 25 to 30 percent lowlands, 35 to 55 percent higher elevations).

Lighter winds are expected from Wednesday as conditions become warmer and drier. A very weak backdoor front will bring a reversal to easterly flow Wednesday Night into Thursday morning, and help keep high temperatures about 4 to 7 degrees below normal.

Temperatures will begin to rebound late week, with 90s returning to the lowlands for the weekend, along with single-digit RH values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 62 76 55 76 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 75 46 74 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 65 73 50 75 / 10 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 50 36 51 / 10 30 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 73 47 75 / 10 10 0 0 Silver City 47 64 39 65 / 20 40 0 0 Deming 55 77 46 76 / 10 10 0 0 Lordsburg 53 72 41 71 / 20 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 77 54 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 76 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 76 55 75 / 10 10 0 0 Jornada Range 55 74 45 76 / 10 10 0 0 Hatch 57 77 46 77 / 10 10 0 0 Columbus 58 78 51 78 / 0 10 0 0 Orogrande 59 74 50 74 / 10 10 0 0 Mayhill 51 64 41 64 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 51 61 39 64 / 10 30 0 0 Timberon 45 59 38 61 / 10 10 0 0 Winston 46 64 34 68 / 20 40 0 10 Hillsboro 57 70 43 72 / 10 20 0 0 Spaceport 52 73 42 75 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 64 28 67 / 30 50 0 0 Hurley 48 68 37 69 / 20 20 0 0 Cliff 46 70 34 72 / 30 50 0 0 Mule Creek 39 66 29 69 / 50 60 10 0 Faywood 49 67 43 69 / 10 20 0 0 Animas 53 73 43 73 / 10 20 0 0 Hachita 54 73 44 73 / 10 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 57 74 46 75 / 10 10 0 0 Cloverdale 49 67 40 71 / 10 20 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.