textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1014 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Cool October temperatures through Monday, then warming a bit the rest of the week. Lowland highs in the mid 70s to low 80s this week. Breezy east winds on Sunday.

- Mostly dry conditions through the week ahead, a much needed break after September's heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Through the early week, rain chances remain near zero as an upper high sits near the Four Corners. Moisture remains south of the border, creeping northward to about the I-10 corridor Mon/Tue as the upper high weakens with PWs rising to around 0.9". At the surface, a ridge of high pressure extends from the Plains. The pressure gradient will be most pronounced on Sun, resulting in breezy E winds through the day, especially along and W of the Divide. Gusts to 30 mph are forecast along the I-10 corridor, closer to 40 mph for Hidalgo and southern Grant Counties. Winds are expected to remain below advisory criteria out west.

Breeziness lingers out west for Mon with lighter winds elsewhere as the gradient loosens. Troughing aloft and at the surface develops through midweek across northern MX and south Texas as moisture levels decline, leaving us with minimal rain chances. Seasonably cool temperatures through Mon, then warming up slightly for the rest of the week to near average. Winds will be generally light for mid-late week with breeziness returning out west Thu-Sat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mainly SKC through AM, then FEW-SCT060 CU develop in the afternoon. Winds AOB 8kts this morning, then gusting to near 20kts from E during afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low fire danger due to recent rains and high fuel moisture. ERC are well below normal, but will increase closer to seasonal normals by the end of next week with drier weather ahead.

East winds 15 to 20 mph on Sunday, leading to Good midday vent rates. Wind speeds decrease on Monday, continuing out of the east. Light flow and Poor vent rates on Tuesday. Slightly below normal temperatures through Monday, then near normal the rest of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 72 55 72 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 55 41 56 / 10 10 20 10 Truth or Consequences 53 76 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 70 52 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 76 56 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 57 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 53 71 54 71 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 57 80 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 77 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 77 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 56 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 64 47 67 / 10 20 30 10 Mescalero 45 67 46 67 / 10 10 10 0 Timberon 44 62 44 62 / 0 10 10 10 Winston 46 68 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 76 53 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 71 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 51 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 49 77 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 72 53 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 76 55 75 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 73 55 73 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.