textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 409 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

- Continued dry and warm, with breezy to windy afternoons and elevated to critical fire conditions each day through Tuesday.

- Sunday and Monday will see the peak wind speeds and the resultant critical fire conditions.

- Some moisture will push into the eastern areas Thursday and Friday with a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms.

..REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK

Upper level trough moves east of the region midweek. As it does, models all agree on a weak low/trough setting up off the Baja coast. As it does, winds will shift around to the southeast and push the dryline toward the RGV. Always some question with the initial westward push with these, but there is decent agreement there will be some storm chances at least in Hudspeth and Otero counties. Doesn't look like much cooling except out in the far east.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 409 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC. SCT100 fair wx CU after 19Z, mainly east of the Rio Grande Valley. Surface winds west AOB 7 knots this morning, increasing to west 12-17G27 knots this afternoon. These breezy winds continuing into much of this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 409 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Continued warm and very dry through Wednesday, with breezy to windy afternoons each day. The strongest winds will be Sunday and Monday, where the combination of very low RH and gusty winds will push fire conditions to critical. Additionally, fuels have been drying the past week or so, and ERCs are approaching the 90th percentile. Exacerbating fire weather over the next couple of days are the poor overnight RH recovery, with max RHs in the 25-35% range. And to top it off, winds will remain breezy through much of the night time hours tonight through Monday night. Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for Sunday, and will likely be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning later today. Monday could also eventually see a Watch or Red Flag Warning.

Min RH: Lowlands 5-8% today and Sunday, increasing to 8-13% Monday through Wednesday. Mountains 6-12% today and Sunday, increasing to 10-20% Monday through Wednesday. Vent rates very good-excellent today through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 68 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 59 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 67 45 65 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 78 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 90 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 90 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 60 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 89 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 67 89 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 87 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 89 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 86 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 48 75 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 83 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 78 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 82 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 84 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 80 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.