textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 545 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

- Some isolated thunderstorms may develop over the Sacramento Mountains Sunday afternoon, as a backdoor cold front pushes in, bringing an uptick in moisture. Gusty winds will be possible.

- Breezy to windy conditions will overspread the area Sunday night as the backdoor front sweeps through the area.

- Warmer temperatures continue on Sunday, with only a slight cool down behind the front for Monday. Mid to upper 90s will be common in the lowlands next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM MDT Sat May 9 2026

A weak upper level trough is scraping by northern New Mexico tonight, while a slightly stronger one near the WY/CO border will drop a little deeper on Sunday afternoon. This will result in some variable winds over the next 24 hours. We'll see some breezy N to NE winds Sunday morning, but they'll become lighter and more variable in the afternoon for most areas. East of the Sacramento Mountains, however, a stronger backdoor push will move in later in the day, bringing an uptick in northeast upslope winds, and a boost in low level moisture (surface dewpoints in the 40s).

Models, including CAMS have been inconsistent in the development of scattered convection over the east slopes of the Sacramento Mountains in the afternoon. Suspect we'll see a few thunderstorms develop before they quickly move off into the eastern plains, and some isolated stronger wind gusts will be possible.

The backdoor front will push towards the Rio Grande Sunday evening, with breezy to windy conditions, especially along west- facing mountain slopes. The 00Z HRRR is producing particularly widespread stronger wind gusts in the 40-50 knot range. This seems a little overdone given the lack of a strong temperature gradient with the front, and the lack of widespread convection upstream that could otherwise produce some outflow to enhance things. Also, low-level winds only look to be about 35 knots. Something to watch, however.

Temperatures in the mid-90s again tomorrow (Sunday) will only drop into the upper-80s for the lowlands near the Rio Grande on Monday, with 90s holding on over SW New Mexico.

Temperatures will ramp back up quickly Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper-90s possible at ELP mid-week, all thanks to a lopsided upper ridge building over the area, which will slowly break down late in the week. No strong winds are expected next week, or significant rainfall chances.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Some northerly breezes expected through the morning hours becoming light and variable through portions of the afternoon. A cold front will push in from the Great Plains and will be seen first at KELP late this afternoon and will continue to push westward overnight tonight. Winds will shift easterly becoming breezy with the front. Thunderstorms expected generally east of the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon but some showers could produce some lower end gusty winds over terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 545 AM MDT Sun May 10 2026

Generally low to elevated fire weather concerns due to continued very low minimum RHs. A cold front will start to push into the Sacramento Mtns and eastern Hudspeth county early this morning shifting winds northeasterly but will stall throughout the afternoon. Min RHs do increase out of critical thresholds for these areas but the remainder of the area will continue to see critical RHs, with some locations in far southwest NM seeing single digits as low as 6%. In addition, Otero and Hudspeth counties will see thunderstorm activity this afternoon with isolated to scattered coverage. Storms have the potential to be strong producing gusty outflow winds and hail. The cold front starts it's trek westward again after dark tonight, bringing breezy easterly winds to the area. West facing slopes will see the gustiest conditions as the front pushes through overnight. Min RHs Monday will be near critical to critical across the lowlands with values of 15-20% with the Sacramento Mtns seeing RHs of 25-30%. Slightly cooler Monday afternoon post-frontal passage but we warm up quite a bit Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RHs dip to critical thresholds again Tuesday persisting through at least Friday. Area mountain min RHs will be near critical at generally 15-23%. Thankfully 20 foot winds stay fairly light Tuesday and Wednesday with speeds of 5-10 mph, but it does look like Thursday and Friday winds get a tad breezier with speeds of 10-15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 89 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 82 55 91 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 86 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 85 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 65 45 70 / 10 10 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 86 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 82 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 56 90 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 59 88 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 88 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 84 53 95 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 91 61 97 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 80 58 87 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 59 90 60 98 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 87 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 87 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 86 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 90 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 90 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 55 84 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 77 49 85 / 10 10 0 0 Mescalero 40 76 49 82 / 10 10 0 0 Timberon 40 72 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 81 51 87 / 0 10 0 0 Hillsboro 52 85 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 86 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 33 83 38 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 56 84 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 49 90 49 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 45 86 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 83 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 87 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 85 60 88 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.