textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

- Record March warmth through Thursday. Daily record highs may be broken with lowland temperatures in the lower to mid nineties.

- Very dry conditions this week, with single-digit relative humidity values. Near critical fire weather concerns Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Upper high currently over Arizona/Sonora will remain over the U.S. Southwest this week. Center of the high will make a slow eastward drift directly over the El Paso region by Wednesday, leading to yet another round of record March warmth before finally getting flushed east sometime early next week. This forecast focuses on much above normal temperatures and extremely dry air.

Temperature recovery from yesterday's cold front will be quick, with lowland highs returning to the lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. These temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for late March, and will likely break daily records. Besides the heat, it looks like a nice day Tuesday/Wednesday with light west winds and sunny skies.

Weak shortwave crossing the Southern Rockies to our north on Thursday will allow winds to pick up slightly. This shortwave can be seen rounding the upper high currently and has virtually no moisture associated with it. Weak lee surface low development over the Texas panhandle will promote west winds 10 to 15 mph for our area. This isn't a big concern for most, but will play a role in fire weather given the abnormal warmth and dryness.

Strong 1040mb surface high over the Northern Plains on Friday will bring a cold front southward across the High Plain on Friday. This is yet another unseasonably strong cold front, which shows good confidence in reaching southern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Breezy east winds, cooler temperatures, and possibly blowing dust on Friday. Current guidance shows a 10 to 20 degree cooling (lowland highs upper 70s/lower 80s), yet this still keeps us slightly above normal. Recent backdoor cold fronts have kicked up quite a bit of dust over eastern NM and west TX, so El Paso may be hazy that afternoon.

Upper high shifts east next weekend, leaving us in a south flow regime and allowing a fetch of moisture out of the Gulf of California into Arizona/New Mexico. Stronger southwest flow aloft may allow for precipitation chances sometime early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VMC through forecast period with skies SCT-BKN250. Surface winds light and variable overnight. West wind 250-280 at 08-12 knots tomorrow afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots in the late afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Very dry conditions to persist through at least Saturday. Min RHs will be critical areawide each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday with lowland RHs dwindling to the single digits. Tuesday and Wednesdays afternoon winds look fairly light, 20 foot winds of 5-10 mph can be expected. Mountain min RHs will be 10-15% Tuesday and Wednesday but the driest and warmest day of the week will be Thursday. Thursday will be the day to watch for near critical to critical fire weather concerns as we are expecting some low end breeziness that afternoon. 20 foot winds of 10-15 mph out of the west to northwest is expected. Some areas in NM111 and NM110 could see wind speeds of 15-20 mph but these won't be widespread. A Fire Weather Watch could be warranted if these trends continue. In addition, ERCs that day will be in the 70-90% percentile generally west of the Rio Grande but ERCs east of the river will be in the upper percentiles (90-96%).

A strong cold front pushing in from the Great Plains looks to arrive Friday and Saturday. Windy east winds expected with the front. Min RHs will increase to 15-30% generally east of the Rio Grande but critical min RHs expected out west Friday. But by Saturday, all locations will be out of critical min RH thresholds. Possible rain chances Sunday and into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 93 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 50 89 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 50 90 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 89 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 67 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 90 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 82 53 86 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 92 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 88 50 91 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 92 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 45 93 49 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 96 54 98 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 85 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 94 55 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 90 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 58 91 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 90 51 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 48 93 52 97 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 93 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 50 88 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 83 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 45 79 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 47 76 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 42 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 89 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 46 89 51 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 84 48 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 47 85 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 89 48 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 47 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 86 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 52 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 50 89 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 90 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 85 56 87 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.