textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 923 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Halloween will feature mostly dry conditions, light winds, and seasonal temperatures.

- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

- Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Batch of showers working west to east but should fizzle away by sunrise. Some lingering showery debris possible Saturday morning. Anomalous moisture will still be overhead with a focus on locations along the Int'l Border. Lower PW values over the northern half of the CONUS (0.7"-0.8") and higher values down south (0.9"-1.1"). Expect mostly cloudy skies Saturday. No real forcing for storms on Saturday, even though we have the moisture. If there's any breaks in the clouds, maybe a shower or thunderstorm possible. HRRR is suggesting some type of activity generally Deming and west. Halloween does look like it'll feature good weather for many locations. Highs will reach to the low to mid 70s but will dip into the 60s after dark. Winds stay light through the day and evening.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms exists Sunday evening. A southern Pacific low will meet up with a more northern Pacific low, joining up over the desert SW. Moisture is still well above normal with PW values of 0.9"-1.1". Now this time, we will have synoptic level forcing for storms Sunday evening. Uncertain how much instability there will be. GFS suggests very low CAPE values, but the EC suggest CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg. After further digging, the NBM and LREF has more modest CAPE values (LREF ~500 J/kg, NBM ~600- 1000 J/kg) with a focus over Hudspeth and S. Otero counties. However, this area of instability may not be influenced just yet but the synoptic forcing. One thing we will have plenty of is shear. Will also have a pacific cold front moving through with this trough late Sunday and into Monday. May just have more showery activity with embedded thunderstorms that evening. Rain chances will push eastward through the overnight with some lingering showery activity possible Monday morning and afternoon. In addition to rain chances, winds will be breezy Sunday afternoon at 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

By Monday afternoon, the center of the low will cross northern NM, sweeping out any moisture leftover. Winds will continue to be breezy Monday afternoon with similar wind speeds to Sunday. A much needed stretch of dry weather is ahead Tuesday through at least Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1029 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Bulk of the showery activity has pushed east of the terminals tonight. Some hit and miss spotty showers possible overnight and during the morning hours. Much drier tomorrow with light winds, but KDMN is the only site that could see a shower or storm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 923 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rain will enter the region from the west later this evening, bringing the potential for flooding rains, but all the same, it will keep fire weather conditions low. Min RHs today will be no less than 45% for most of the region, and Saturday's min RHs will be quite similar, even with a lull in the rain. Another round of rain will sweep through on Sunday as a second trough moves through. Dry conditions return Monday afternoon. Ventilation rates will improve from Poor today to Very Good on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 74 61 80 / 50 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 51 72 56 79 / 30 10 10 0 Las Cruces 52 71 56 76 / 60 10 0 50 Alamogordo 51 72 56 78 / 40 10 0 70 Cloudcroft 37 51 42 57 / 40 10 10 70 Truth or Consequences 51 73 57 76 / 70 20 10 60 Silver City 46 66 53 68 / 90 20 20 80 Deming 51 72 57 78 / 70 20 10 60 Lordsburg 50 72 58 75 / 70 20 10 80 West El Paso Metro 58 73 64 80 / 50 0 0 10 Dell City 54 73 58 79 / 30 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 58 80 63 88 / 50 10 10 0 Loma Linda 51 68 56 74 / 40 10 0 10 Fabens 57 77 62 84 / 60 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 72 60 78 / 60 10 0 30 White Sands HQ 55 72 60 79 / 50 10 0 50 Jornada Range 52 72 57 77 / 60 10 0 60 Hatch 53 75 58 80 / 70 20 0 60 Columbus 54 74 60 79 / 80 10 10 50 Orogrande 52 71 57 78 / 40 10 0 50 Mayhill 42 65 47 69 / 50 10 10 50 Mescalero 42 62 46 67 / 40 20 10 70 Timberon 40 61 45 65 / 40 10 10 60 Winston 42 67 48 69 / 90 20 10 70 Hillsboro 48 72 55 75 / 80 20 10 70 Spaceport 50 72 56 76 / 70 20 0 70 Lake Roberts 42 67 49 67 / 90 20 30 90 Hurley 46 69 52 72 / 90 20 10 80 Cliff 50 73 57 73 / 90 20 30 90 Mule Creek 46 68 54 66 / 90 30 60 90 Faywood 48 67 55 71 / 90 20 10 80 Animas 51 74 57 77 / 70 10 10 80 Hachita 51 72 56 77 / 70 10 10 70 Antelope Wells 51 73 57 78 / 70 10 10 60 Cloverdale 50 69 56 71 / 60 10 10 80

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.