textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Low elevation desert temperatures will periodically reach 100 to 105, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the Gila wilderness and Sacramento mountains, and to a lesser extent the boot heel of NM. Storms will be slow-moving and capable of locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

High pressure aloft will remain entrenched over much of the southern Rockies and southern deserts through the next several days with only minor fluctuations in strength and orientation. Currently, PWATs remain between 1.0 and 1.3 inch over much of the forecast area, and through early to middle of next week the orientation of the high will keep monsoon moisture favoring Sonora into southern AZ with modified and more subdued PWATs into NM and far west TX. Sluggish storm motions will be common, increasing the locally heavy rainfall threat through at least early next week.

Today's storms will be mostly concentrated over the Sacramento mountains and Gila wilderness through mid afternoon before propagating into nearby valleys with storms struggling to initiate farther south near the borderland. The Flood Watch for the Sacramento's will end at 6 PM MDT when the heavy rainfall threat will abate there.

Into Sunday, high resolution models indicate the Gila and Sacramento's observing convective initiation again, while storms also develop farther southwest over the boot heel and along the Sonora- Chihuahua border. Consequently, isolated to scattered storms have been built into the Sunday afternoon forecast for much of the western half of the forecast area with most of far west TX staying void of storms. Temperatures will follow close to persistence with lots of upper 90's and low 100's in the lower elevation deserts.

Changes into Monday are subtle with a slight increase in storm coverage over western areas where cells will continue to slowly drift westward. Temperatures will gain a degree or two of warming, especially along the Rio Grande.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to-day changes with sensible weather elements. POPs mimic climatology for late July, typically the most active thunderstorm period, with the Gila, NM boot heel, and Sacramento's staying the favored areas for rainfall. Temperatures in the Rio Grande will escalate to 100 to 105 in many locales, increasing heat impacts next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Thunderstorms will be concentrated in central New Mexico this afternoon and evening with activity trending more sparse and isolated farther south toward the borderland. This will keep scattered strong storms over the Sacramento mountains and also the Gila wilderness where heavy downpours will briefly limit visibility and ceilings while the typical aviation hazards of downburst winds, small hail, and lightning also accompany. Storms will struggle to roll off of the mountains into the lower Rio Grande valley, but could briefly impact KTCS through the early evening. Most showers and storms will come to an end by midnight with very few surviving thereafter. Hot temperatures and low density altitude readings will be common, creating poor aircraft performance for some.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm outflows on localized scales for brief time frames.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 80 102 79 103 / 0 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 70 98 72 100 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 73 99 73 101 / 10 10 20 0 Alamogordo 75 98 76 100 / 20 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 57 75 57 78 / 20 40 20 40 Truth or Consequences 75 99 74 100 / 40 20 10 10 Silver City 67 91 66 91 / 30 30 20 50 Deming 74 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 10 Lordsburg 73 98 72 97 / 30 30 40 10 West El Paso Metro 81 101 80 103 / 0 10 20 0 Dell City 74 101 74 103 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 78 103 78 104 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 72 96 72 97 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 78 102 78 104 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 77 100 76 101 / 10 10 20 0 White Sands HQ 79 100 80 102 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 76 99 76 101 / 20 10 10 0 Hatch 75 102 74 103 / 30 20 20 0 Columbus 78 102 77 101 / 10 20 30 0 Orogrande 75 99 74 101 / 10 20 10 0 Mayhill 61 85 62 88 / 20 40 20 30 Mescalero 61 84 62 88 / 20 40 20 30 Timberon 60 85 60 87 / 10 40 20 20 Winston 64 89 63 92 / 40 50 10 30 Hillsboro 72 95 71 97 / 50 30 20 20 Spaceport 73 99 72 101 / 30 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 62 89 61 91 / 50 40 20 70 Hurley 68 94 67 95 / 30 30 20 30 Cliff 69 96 68 97 / 40 20 20 30 Mule Creek 67 93 66 93 / 40 20 20 40 Faywood 70 94 68 95 / 30 30 20 30 Animas 73 98 71 97 / 30 30 50 10 Hachita 72 99 70 97 / 10 30 40 10 Antelope Wells 71 97 70 95 / 10 30 40 20 Cloverdale 67 91 66 91 / 20 40 50 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.