textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting into early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Rain chances will be limited to the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico this week. Isolated storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Persistent upper high remains fixed over the Southern Rockies, and will sit there through at least the remainder of late July. This will drive the weather pattern through the week ahead. GFS 500-mb height anomalies suggest this high is 3-4 standard deviations stronger than is typical for the middle of the North American Monsoon. The pattern is not favorable for widespread rain, as any storms that do form will be mostly driven by recycled moisture and convective temperature/terrain forcing producing meager instability. The monsoonal plume will be broad and diffuse, but generally favor the AZ/NM state line. Precipitable water values are just over an inch through much of southwest New Mexico, with drier air further to the east across far west Texas and southeast New Mexico.

For Monday, lack of moisture and no forcing aloft will likely lead to a "down" day of rain chances. Isolated (10-20% coverage) showers and thunderstorms are expected over the high terrain of the Gila Wilderness and NM bootheel. Most other areas will stay dry, including nearly all of the Rio Grande Valley. Main threat with any storms will be localized flash flooding, as storm motions remain very slow if not stationary and capable of 1-2 inch/hour rainfall rates.

The main headline for the desert lowland will be hot temperatures. Suffocating upper ridge aloft will promote very hot afternoon conditions, followed by little relief overnight. Highs will run 8-12 degrees above normal for late July, which means lowland highs in the 102 to 106 degree range through at least next Friday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for El Paso and the lower Rio Grande Valley through Tuesday, and may need to be expanded in both time and area later this week.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high for Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to-day changes with sensible weather elements. Overall weather pattern will be warmer-than-normal temperatures and isolated rain chances focused mainly across southwest New Mexico and the southern NM high elevations. GFS/ECMWF both agree in a slight retrograde of the upper high as we head into the first week of August, which is still a poor weather pattern for rain chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VMC expected through forecast period under light flow aloft. Surface winds 260-320 at 05 to 10 knots overnight across S NM, AOB 5 knots for KELP. Skies FEW-SCT150, becoming mostly clear by sunrise Monday. Isolated TSRA over the S NM mountains again tomorrow, likely not affecting local terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Hot temperatures continue, especially in the lower elevation areas near the Rio Grande Valley. Daily thunderstorm activity is likely across the high terrain in the Gila Region and near the Sacramento Mountains. Storms will likely produce frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause isolated flash flooding in areas. Any recent burn areas and saturated soils will be at higher risk for flooding. Minimum humidity values are likely to remain in the mid teens. Any wind threats will be localized from thunderstorm activity, with the overall winds remaining rather light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 105 79 106 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 74 103 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 56 79 58 79 / 10 20 0 30 Truth or Consequences 74 102 76 103 / 10 10 10 10 Silver City 66 94 67 94 / 10 10 10 50 Deming 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 71 99 73 100 / 10 0 20 20 West El Paso Metro 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 73 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 78 105 78 106 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 76 102 76 103 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 80 104 80 105 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 75 104 76 104 / 0 0 10 10 Hatch 74 106 76 106 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 77 104 78 105 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 73 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 91 63 91 / 10 20 0 20 Mescalero 60 91 63 91 / 10 10 0 30 Timberon 58 88 60 89 / 10 10 0 20 Winston 63 93 66 94 / 10 20 20 40 Hillsboro 71 100 73 100 / 10 10 10 30 Spaceport 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 61 95 62 95 / 20 20 20 60 Hurley 67 98 69 98 / 10 10 10 40 Cliff 67 100 69 100 / 20 10 10 40 Mule Creek 65 95 67 96 / 10 10 20 40 Faywood 68 97 70 98 / 10 10 10 50 Animas 71 99 71 99 / 20 10 30 10 Hachita 70 100 72 100 / 20 0 20 20 Antelope Wells 70 99 69 99 / 10 20 40 20 Cloverdale 66 93 64 92 / 30 20 40 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.