textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 442 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025 - Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- A back door cold front will bring some breezy conditions Sunday morning, producing wind chills in the 20s and 30s. Temperatures cool about 7-15 degrees for Sunday and Monday.

- Near record highs possible again by the middle of next week while precipitation chances hold near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

No changes from previous forecast packages as a quiet weather pattern persists over the Desert Southwest through the weekend and into next week.

Strong upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and west coast region will continue to promote dry northwesterly flow over the Borderland Region. All in all, expect quiet and fair weather conditions through the weekend and into next week. High temperatures will continue to be 10-17 degrees above average Friday and Saturday, with near record values across the desert lowlands. Cloud coverage will be a minimum with instances of high level cirrus from time to time. Winds each afternoon will be light to low-end breezy, typical diurnal wind flow regime.

Upper level high will continue to slowly advance eastward by the weekend. While that's happening, an upper level system over the Northern Plains and Midwest will push a cold front south across the Great Plains. The front will knock on our door Saturday night into Sunday morning with colder air pushing in on Sunday. Temperatures will drop around 10 degrees from Saturday, but remain a few degrees above the seasonal average. This front will also bring with it gusty winds Sunday morning, especially along western slopes of area mountains.

Thereafter, a more zonal-like flow regime aloft will resume across the region with fair weather conditions and above average warmth through the first half of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 442 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds remain AOB 8kts, mostly from N with some variability. Mainly SKC persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 442 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Precip chances remain near zero into next week as northwest flow aloft continues, giving us tranquil weather. Temperatures stay well above normal through Saturday before a backdoor front arrives Sun AM. This will cool temperatures closer to normal early next week, but still on the warmer side. The cooler temps will result in higher RHs even though the front isn't bringing much moisture. The front brings gusty east winds Sunday morning, especially along west mtn slopes and the Lordsburg Playa where gusts up to 30 mph can be seen. Otherwise, winds will be light from the north and west.

Min RHs will be 12-25% through Sat, then increasing to 20-40% outside of FWZ110 Sun/Mon. Vent rates will be mostly poor due to the light winds through the column.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 42 72 40 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 68 35 56 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 68 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 36 69 33 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 33 52 26 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 38 68 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 69 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 36 73 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 70 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 43 69 42 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 32 73 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 38 74 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 41 63 38 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 37 72 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 37 69 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 70 42 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 33 68 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 34 71 32 64 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 39 73 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 36 66 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 36 68 27 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 64 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 33 62 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 68 29 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 69 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 33 68 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 34 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 37 70 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 36 73 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 36 70 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 70 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 38 72 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 36 72 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 74 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 69 44 61 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.