textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions today due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas.

- Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons, Tuesday through Friday. Winds shift around to east Saturday and Sunday for areas east of the Rio Grande Valley, increasing low level moisture and bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly over Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Broad long-wave trough will persist over the western US through Friday with a series of short-waves ejecting out over the forecast area through this same period, allowing breezy afternoons each day. In the short term, one short-wave has just passed through the CWA and now over eastern New Mexico. Another wave is just through the Four Corners and will allow gusty winds to continue into this evening as it sweeps through. At the surface, back door cool front just into far NE New Mexico, with dry-line extending from the western Texas Panhandle down to the Big Bend. Both fronts will retreat north/east today but will be players later in the week.

Today...continued gusty winds with critical fire conditions. Some blowing dust is possible again this afternoon, mostly over west Texas but possibly local areas near Deming and Lordsburg also.

Tuesday through Thursday...next short-wave deepens some over the Great Basin but makes very little progress eastward. Second impulse dives further south over SoCal, eventually closing off a weak low over the northern Baja Thursday night. Bottom line...moderate mid-level winds will continue but surface pattern is disrupted by back door cool front continuing to lurk over NE New Mexico. Thus lee-side low (weak) develops over northern New Mexico and does not allow strong pressure gradient to develop like more typical NE New Mexico surface low. However winds will still remain breezy each afternoon. Temperatures will remain seasonable.

Friday through Sunday...long-wave trough finally begins moving east and weak high pressure aloft starts building over the Desert Southwest. This initially pushes the back door front down to the Sacramento Mtns Friday evening before stalling out. Dry-line also drifts west but remains east of the forecast area through this period. Dewpoints do rise into the 40s, mainly east of the RG Valley. POPs start over the far eastern CWA Saturday and Sunday. Modest instability Saturday, but increases on Sunday. Decent MUCAPE values and some directional shear could allow some strong storms to develop.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the period with dry conditions and mostly clear skies, with the exception of some high clouds here and there. Breezy to windy conditions will continue the next few hours but will be on the downtrend after sunset. Light breezes overnight AOB 10KT with low end breeziness expected by 18Z tomorrow. We'll see breezy conditions again through the afternoon hours tomorrow but will not be as windy as today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1105 AM MDT Mon May 18 2026

Today continues in critical fire conditions as gusty winds, which really lasted all night in many locations, increases again this afternoon. Thus Red Flag Warnings will continues into this evening. Tuesday through Friday, wind conditions slacken a bit, but each afternoon will still become breezy. Fire conditions to remain at elevated levels. Winds over the Capitan Mountains will lighten up a bit after today, and will see significant wind shift to the east/northeast Friday night and Saturday. This will also produce modest increases in dewpoint/humidity, and could lead to a shower or thunderstorm over eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties Saturday and Sunday. Despite this uptick in moisture, ERCs are still forecast to remain around the 90th percentile through Sunday.

Min RH: Lowlands 8-13% through Friday, then 12-18% Sat/Sun. Gila/Black Range 8-15% through Friday, then 12-20% Sat/Sun. Sacramento/Capitan Mountains 10-18% through Friday, then 20-30% Sat/Sun. Vent rates excellent through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 92 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 90 56 87 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 54 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 89 59 88 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 43 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 20 Truth or Consequences 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 80 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 53 92 54 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 90 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 92 54 88 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 59 97 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 85 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 94 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 89 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 54 91 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 93 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 79 45 76 / 0 0 0 30 Mescalero 47 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 45 74 44 73 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 42 80 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 85 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 87 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 46 84 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 86 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 82 44 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 50 83 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 88 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 89 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 82 55 80 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.