textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 946 PM MST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.

- Next system arrives Friday afternoon, bringing rain chances and high elevation snow through Saturday afternoon.

- Slight chance of showers Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 946 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Upper ridge continues to build over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, ahead of a deepening Pacific trough still off the west coast of the US. Meanwhile the sub-tropical jet remains active with deep layered sub-tropical moisture, but feature will remain well south of our area. Thus the upper ridge is the dominating playa over tonight into early Friday, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures.

Friday and Saturday...Pacific trough finally moves onshore as it continues to dig as very strong polar jet dives down the back side of the trough. As the Gulf of Alaska upper low weakens, a closed off low will form at the bottom of the trough and swing across the northern Baja Friday afternoon. This low will contain a decent amount of moisture and all three of GFS/ECMWF/RRFS showing low able to tap a bit of the sub-tropical moisture over Mexico. Good chance for showers to develop and make it as far east as the RG Valley by late Friday afternoon. GFS still shows good cold air aloft (about 5C deg cooling at 500mb), which should lead to decent instability with very modest CAPES. Because of this, an isolated thunderstorm will be possible with the showers. With the upper low tracking across northern Mexico or far southern New Mexico Friday night along with the surface cold front, showers will spread east over the rest of the area. Expect broad area of .25-.50 of rainfall across the area, with a few spots maybe hitting 1.0 inch with a thunderstorm. Most/all showers should be done in the east by mid day Saturday as the low quickly moves into central Texas. Snow levels will remain high, but an inch or so of snow is possible above 8500 ft. Rapidly moving upper low associated with the polar jet moves in right behind the exiting low but will track across Colorado Saturday night. Rain chances should remain north of the CWA, but could see some breezy winds Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday...short wave ridge sweeps in Sunday behind the exiting lows. Expect mostly clear skies again, but temperatures will be cool, a bit below normal, behind the cold front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...next Pacific system moves in with the low tracking across SoCal and Arizona. Both GFS/ECMWF similar with the track but ECMWF about 6-10 hours faster than GFS. Rain chances increase as early as Tuesday mid day and are likely done by mid day Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 946 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Winds variable AOB 7 knots, becoming east/southeast 7-10 knots Thursday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 239 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Low fire weather concerns continue as near normal temperatures, relatively high RH values, and light winds continue. Also, another chance for precipitation looks to arrive late Friday into Saturday, especially east of the Continental Divide.

With several pile burn projects, vent rates are presumably the main concern. They will be some what limited outside of SW New Mexico on Thursday, with improvements in the higher elevations on Friday, and area-wide Saturday, despite the precipitation.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 48 70 50 71 / 0 0 0 50 Sierra Blanca 43 65 45 68 / 0 0 0 70 Las Cruces 44 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 40 Alamogordo 42 68 43 69 / 0 0 0 50 Cloudcroft 30 55 32 52 / 0 0 0 50 Truth or Consequences 43 66 43 65 / 0 0 0 20 Silver City 38 66 41 63 / 0 0 0 40 Deming 43 68 43 68 / 0 0 0 30 Lordsburg 44 68 46 68 / 0 0 0 40 West El Paso Metro 49 70 50 71 / 0 0 0 50 Dell City 45 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 60 Fort Hancock 48 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 60 Loma Linda 44 66 46 67 / 0 0 0 60 Fabens 46 72 49 74 / 0 0 0 50 Santa Teresa 45 68 46 69 / 0 0 0 50 White Sands HQ 50 69 48 70 / 0 0 0 50 Jornada Range 38 68 39 68 / 0 0 0 40 Hatch 39 72 42 71 / 0 0 0 30 Columbus 45 70 47 70 / 0 0 0 30 Orogrande 40 68 41 69 / 0 0 0 50 Mayhill 33 68 35 65 / 0 0 0 40 Mescalero 34 66 36 65 / 0 0 0 40 Timberon 34 64 34 62 / 0 0 0 60 Winston 33 65 35 62 / 0 0 0 30 Hillsboro 43 68 43 67 / 0 0 0 30 Spaceport 37 67 39 67 / 0 0 0 30 Lake Roberts 29 69 31 64 / 0 0 0 40 Hurley 39 68 40 66 / 0 0 0 30 Cliff 31 72 34 70 / 0 0 0 40 Mule Creek 27 70 30 66 / 0 0 0 50 Faywood 41 67 44 65 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 43 69 45 69 / 0 0 0 30 Hachita 43 68 44 68 / 0 0 0 40 Antelope Wells 44 67 45 69 / 0 0 0 30 Cloverdale 44 67 46 64 / 0 0 0 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.