textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through Sunday with breezy afternoon winds and little or no chance of rain.

- Next Pacific system due in Monday will bring a chance of thunderstorms to most of the area Monday, with gusty winds and localized dust possible. A few strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially east of the Rio Grande.

- Temperatures will be above normal Sunday and Monday; otherwise cooling down to seasonable levels through the mid portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

We've just enough residual moisture lingering over southeastern Hudspeth County to generate a few convective showers. West Texas Mesonet station checked in with a 41 dewpoint at Sierra Blanca, the same at Van Horn. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in that area over the next couple of hours, before activity shifts to the east.

Drier SW flow will completely scour out the low level moisture by evening, and dry conditions will prevail area-wide through Sunday. Temperatures will slowly rise over the next few days, with mid-90s common in the lowlands by Sunday, as a narrow upper level ridge axis moves over the area.

A negatively-tiled upper trough will take a swing at New Mexico early next week. This orientation usually enhances upper level divergence ahead of the trough, and that's looks to be the case on Monday as well. Low level moisture looks to push as far west as the Rio Grande by Monday morning, and while much of this will mix-out, surface dewpoints will remain high enough for showers and thunderstorms to develop. The further west you are, the drier they'll be, with greater chances for wind gusts and localized blowing dust. Farther east, moisture will be marginally better, with higher chances for wetting rain as a result. Can't completely rule out strong to severe thunderstorms east of the Rio Grande, as deep-layer shear will be sufficient, and low level backed flow will be in place over Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

Drier conditions, with and slightly cooler temperatures will return for Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

We will see VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. The low end gusty winds we are seeing right now, will drop off around sunset and we will have light south or southwest winds tonight. The low end gusty winds will return again Saturday afternoon. The mid level clouds we have right now will continue to dissipate as drier air works into the area. We will see unlimited ceilings tonight and through the day on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

Drier air will overtake the area through Sunday, with breezy afternoons continuing while temperatures tick slightly higher. This will keep fire weather conditions somewhat elevated, mostly due to MinRH values dropping into the single digits in the lowlands, and the upper-10s above 7500 feet.

Low level moisture will push in from the east Sunday night, while an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west on Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday, especially in the higher terrain, and in the lowlands east of the Rio Grande. Gusty winds will be likely with storms.

Dry conditions, with Seasonal to slightly below normal temperatures are expected from Tuesday, with fairly light southwest winds prevailing again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 60 85 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 57 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 88 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 66 49 69 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 58 87 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 58 90 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 86 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 88 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 53 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 92 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 53 82 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 91 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 62 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 54 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 91 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 64 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 56 86 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 77 47 81 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 47 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 42 74 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 57 86 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 52 87 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 37 82 38 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 87 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 83 43 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 86 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 58 86 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 56 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 79 51 83 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.