textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 549 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

- Dry through Friday, then a chance of rain showers this weekend. Best chance for scattered rain showers will be Sunday and Monday along the International Border. - Temperatures will run slightly above normal for early February over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MST Thu Feb 5 2026

Current weather pattern features a ridge of high pressure aloft extended N/S along the Rocky Mountains and a Pacific low off the California coast. Warm, southwest flow ahead of this Pacific system will allow temperatures to increase on Friday. Lowland highs will reach into the upper 60s, and a good chance El Paso hits 70 degrees Friday afternoon.

Favorable fetch of moisture transport toward the El Paso region this weekend as the low progresses toward Baja. Plumes of subtropical moisture will be transported northward ahead of the low, with diffluent flow and weak shortwaves within the 500-700 mb layer generating isolated rain showers Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation coverage will be very spotty, favoring the International Border due to the more southerly track models are predicting with the Pacific low. Rain chances are only 20-40% for most locations and any rain that does fall will be light (almost everywhere <0.25" storm total QPF). Temperatures will also remain warm through the weekend, with snow limited to only the high mountain peaks above 9000 feet. Pacific low will cross over northern Mexico on Monday, with a few lingering rain showers possible.

Dry weather returns next Tuesday as the system exits and broad high pressure hangs over the southern US. This will keep temperatures rather warm midweek next week, with lowlands highs in the lower 70s. Global models are in good agreement in another round of precipitation chances sometime around Valentine's Day weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Light and variable winds today, with VFR conditions prevailing. Some higher clouds will increase late tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 549 AM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Temperatures will climb up to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal today as a ridge axis shifts east of the area. Winds will remain light and variable, but deeper mixing heights over the high terrain will improve vent rates, though they will remain poor at lower elevations.

A slow-moving upper low will drift around northwestern Sonora through the weekend, before moving across northern Mexico early next week. This will bring some widely scattered showers to the region, with snow levels remaining quite high.

Slightly breezy west winds on Tuesday will help boost vent rates across the region. A warming trend looks to take shape mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 69 46 70 / 0 20 10 20 Sierra Blanca 42 68 44 68 / 0 10 20 20 Las Cruces 42 65 40 67 / 0 20 10 20 Alamogordo 41 67 40 69 / 0 30 10 20 Cloudcroft 34 48 33 50 / 0 30 10 20 Truth or Consequences 43 64 41 68 / 0 20 10 20 Silver City 41 63 39 64 / 0 30 10 40 Deming 43 68 40 70 / 10 40 20 30 Lordsburg 42 68 39 68 / 10 20 10 30 West El Paso Metro 48 68 48 70 / 0 20 10 20 Dell City 39 70 42 70 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 45 74 47 75 / 0 20 20 20 Loma Linda 46 64 45 65 / 0 20 10 20 Fabens 46 71 46 73 / 0 20 10 20 Santa Teresa 44 67 43 68 / 0 20 10 20 White Sands HQ 47 68 46 69 / 0 20 10 20 Jornada Range 40 67 38 69 / 0 20 10 20 Hatch 41 70 38 72 / 0 30 10 20 Columbus 46 69 44 70 / 10 30 20 30 Orogrande 41 66 41 68 / 0 20 10 20 Mayhill 37 62 36 63 / 0 20 10 10 Mescalero 35 59 34 62 / 0 30 10 20 Timberon 38 57 37 58 / 0 20 10 20 Winston 34 60 31 61 / 0 30 10 20 Hillsboro 43 65 41 66 / 0 30 10 30 Spaceport 39 65 36 68 / 0 20 10 20 Lake Roberts 37 62 34 63 / 0 40 10 40 Hurley 39 64 36 65 / 0 30 10 30 Cliff 38 69 35 70 / 0 30 10 30 Mule Creek 38 66 37 66 / 0 20 10 30 Faywood 43 64 41 65 / 10 40 20 30 Animas 42 70 41 69 / 10 20 20 30 Hachita 41 68 39 68 / 10 20 20 30 Antelope Wells 43 69 41 67 / 10 20 20 40 Cloverdale 45 65 44 64 / 10 30 20 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.