textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms in the mountains Friday, with isolated lowland activity.

- Temperatures remain warm into next week with drier conditions overall starting this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A few storms linger into the overnight as outflows stagnate, focusing in Otero County. Mainly dry conditions prevail through tomorrow morning. The monsoon high drifts eastward for Friday over central NM, keeping moisture levels slightly above normal for late August. PWs around 1.1" will allow for scattered convection to develop over area mtns and isolated activity for the lowlands in the afternoon, similar to what we saw today (storm motion to SW). Instability will be comparable to Thu with outflow gusts to 40 mph possible. The Sacs are favored to see heavy rainfall with up to 2" of rain in spots from the stronger cells according to the HREF. The activity should decay around sunset.

The upper high is pushed over the southern Plains this weekend by a trough moving through the northern Rockies. Drier air from the east will move in as a result with storm chances favoring AZ and western NM. Most areas should be dry this weekend as PWs fall to 0.9-1" at KELP. PWs hold closer to 1.1" along the AZ-NM line with a marginal threat of heavy rainfall with storm motion to the N.

The forecast becomes more uncertain beginning on Mon as high pressure aloft stretches from the southern Plains to the Carolinas in kind of a kidney bean shape. The LREF mean shows PWs rebounding to near normal from Mon onward, signifying better storm coverage each afternoon (isolated lowlands and scattered mtns). Inverted troughs may move into our region from the Gulf, but we'll have to see what features develop and exactly where the high sets up. For now, typical monsoon activity is forecast for the second half of the period with gusty winds and brief downpours possible. Temps will be a few degrees above normal through the middle of next week, a bit cooler than we were the past few days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Quiet conditions this morning but another round of afternoon thunderstorms will initiate over the higher terrain of southern NM and will trigger of some lowland thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, winds will stay fairly light generally AOB 10KT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 501 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to influence the area. Temperatures stay 5-8 degrees above normal each afternoon through mid-week next week. Expect scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms this afternoon but trending drier, solely focusing on the area mountains over the weekend. Uncertain how active it will become during the upcoming work week but can more than likely expect storms over the area mountains each afternoon during that time with lesser confidence with regards to storms in the lowlands.

Min RH values will stay near critical across the desert lowlands with values of 15-20%. Mountain min RHs will be anywhere from 25- 45%. 20 foot winds remain light at 5-10 mph each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 99 75 100 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 95 66 97 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 98 69 99 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 97 71 99 / 20 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 73 53 75 / 20 40 0 10 Truth or Consequences 71 97 72 97 / 30 0 10 10 Silver City 64 91 64 90 / 40 10 20 20 Deming 70 99 69 99 / 20 0 10 0 Lordsburg 70 98 69 95 / 30 0 20 10 West El Paso Metro 77 99 76 100 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 69 98 69 100 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 102 73 104 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 92 68 93 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 73 100 72 101 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 98 72 98 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 74 98 74 100 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 70 97 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 71 101 71 102 / 20 0 0 0 Columbus 74 100 74 100 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 96 69 97 / 20 0 0 0 Mayhill 56 86 57 88 / 20 30 0 10 Mescalero 55 85 56 86 / 20 30 0 10 Timberon 54 83 55 85 / 20 20 0 0 Winston 59 88 60 87 / 30 30 20 40 Hillsboro 68 97 68 96 / 30 10 10 10 Spaceport 69 98 69 98 / 30 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 58 89 58 88 / 30 10 10 20 Hurley 65 94 65 93 / 30 0 10 10 Cliff 67 98 68 96 / 40 0 20 20 Mule Creek 65 93 65 91 / 40 0 30 20 Faywood 67 93 67 93 / 20 0 10 10 Animas 69 99 69 95 / 20 0 30 20 Hachita 69 97 69 95 / 20 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 68 97 68 95 / 20 0 20 20 Cloverdale 66 92 65 88 / 20 10 30 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.