textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 447 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026 - Thunderstorm chances will remain highest for the Sacramento Mountains on Saturday, with some slow-moving storms along the east slopes possible again.

- There's a slight chance of a stray thunderstorm working into eastern El Paso county Saturday evening. Breezy outflow winds from the east are a more likely scenario around, and shortly after sunset. - Lowland highs will again be in the 100 to 103 degree range Saturday.

- Scattered thunderstorms all mountain areas starting Monday. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Subtropical ridge is just about centered overhead, and will drift a little to the east on Saturday. Temperatures should be more or less steady from today, with plenty of high clouds. Expect dewpoints to get a boost along the Rio Grande shortly as outflow moves in form the east, but moisture will once again mostly mix- out near and west of the RG by afternoon. HRRR and other HREF members bring thunderstorms back to the Sacramento Mountains by early afternoon, and they may be slow movers again given the weaker flow aloft under the ridge. Storms may manage to develop in east El Paso County Saturday evening, and there's a slight chance of a stray storm reaching ELP after 7 PM. Breezy east outflow winds are likely for a few hours after sunset in the El Paso area.

The ridge will slowly transition westward early next week. Sunday will mostly see convection focused over the Sacramento Mountains again, but low level easterly flow should improve moisture across the region for Monday. By then, the ridge will be parked along the central AZ/NM state line, with northerly mid and upper-level flow prevailing. This is often favorable for a few stronger storms, and the storm motion is more favorable for storms to reach the lowlands without having to rely so much on outflow interactions.

While an uptick in thunderstorm coverage can be expected Monday, the models have all shifted well south with the inverted trough, so expect isolated to widely scattered coverage in the lowlands at best Monday through Wed.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Generally VFR conditions for the period with SCT-BKN250. Developing after 18Z, mainly over the Sacramento Mtns...isolated BKN070CB -TSRA. After 21Z a few of these thunderstorms could spread to the lowlands from the RG Valley east. Thunderstorm activity should be done by around 05Z. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming mainly east/southeast 7-10 knots this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds of 20-30 knots possible over Dona Ana, El Paso and southwest Otero Counties toward midnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 447 AM MDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Not many fire concerns this forecast period, the exception being zone 110. This area continues in its dry start to the monsoon season. Area ERCs remain unseasonably high, well above the 90th percentile. On Sunday, though thunderstorm chances are higher further east, the area will have a slight chance of thunderstorms and forecast dewpoints would suggest a chance of dry thunderstorms/lightning. Otherwise the zones will all see an increase in humidity by Monday/Tuesday with a chance of thunderstorms and wetting rain. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal for much of next week.

Min RH: Lowlands west of the RG Valley...6-10% today increasing to 12-18% Sunday through Wednesday. Lowlands RG Valley east...12-18% today increasing to 15-22% Sunday through Wednesday. Gila/Black Range Mtns...8-13% today increasing to 15-30% Sunday through Wednesday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...20-30% today increasing to 25-40% Sunday through Wednesday. Vent rates good-very good through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 78 100 76 100 / 20 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 71 95 67 95 / 20 20 10 10 Las Cruces 71 98 69 98 / 0 20 10 10 Alamogordo 72 97 69 97 / 10 30 10 40 Cloudcroft 57 74 52 74 / 0 50 10 80 Truth or Consequences 75 97 71 98 / 10 20 0 20 Silver City 65 92 64 93 / 0 20 0 60 Deming 71 101 69 99 / 10 20 10 10 Lordsburg 72 98 71 100 / 10 10 0 10 West El Paso Metro 77 99 76 99 / 20 20 20 10 Dell City 71 98 69 97 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 75 101 74 100 / 30 20 20 10 Loma Linda 69 92 68 92 / 30 20 20 20 Fabens 78 101 74 100 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 75 98 72 98 / 10 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 76 98 76 99 / 10 20 20 20 Jornada Range 70 98 66 98 / 10 20 10 20 Hatch 71 99 68 101 / 0 20 10 20 Columbus 76 100 75 98 / 10 20 10 10 Orogrande 69 96 68 96 / 20 30 20 20 Mayhill 58 84 56 85 / 10 30 10 60 Mescalero 58 85 55 85 / 0 40 10 70 Timberon 56 83 54 82 / 20 30 10 60 Winston 64 89 62 88 / 20 20 0 60 Hillsboro 71 96 68 95 / 0 20 0 50 Spaceport 67 97 65 98 / 0 20 10 30 Lake Roberts 59 92 60 92 / 20 20 0 80 Hurley 69 95 66 96 / 10 20 0 50 Cliff 59 98 65 99 / 20 10 0 50 Mule Creek 56 94 61 96 / 10 20 0 40 Faywood 69 94 67 95 / 0 20 10 40 Animas 74 99 71 100 / 0 10 0 10 Hachita 73 98 70 99 / 0 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 74 99 71 100 / 10 0 0 10 Cloverdale 68 93 68 95 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.