textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 413 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Slightly cooler today, then near record warmth early next week. - Dry conditions through the rest of the year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

Weak Pacific cold front moved through last night, leading to slightly cooler temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas today. Lowland highs should reach the upper 50s/lower 60s, which is still slightly above normal for late December. Winds will also be lighter, out of the west at 10 to 15 mph.

Northwest flow aloft over the next several days with El Paso fixed on the southern side of the polar jet. Weak shortwaves within this flow will be very benign, generally keeping the wind direction west-northwesterly heading into the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern promotes a warming trend, continued dry conditions, and mostly light wind.

Temperatures will recover quickly over the next couple days, back to well above normal this weekend. Lowland highs will reach the upper 60s most afternoons, and El Paso has another good chance of reaching 70 degrees Sunday and Monday. Near-record warmth is expected to finish 2024.

Extended models suggest this prolonged dry spell will rage on into early January as a stagnant blocking high over the Baja California Pacific will keep diverting any storm systems to our north. Looks like a very quiet couple weeks of weather locally.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

VMC expected through forecast period under northwest flow aloft. Lighter surface winds today, generally 250-280 at 05-10 knots. Increasing high clouds this afternoon, starting SKC-FEW250 this morning and becoming SCT-BKN150 after 00Z. Mostly cloudy overnight with no weather hazards.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Dec 26 2024

Slightly cooler today behind a Pacific cold front. West winds 10 to 15 mph will lead to Fair smoke ventilation this afternoon. Min RH 20-30%.

Warming and drying trend this weekend and into the New Years holiday. West flow will be the prevailing wind direction over the next several days. Elevated fire danger possible next Monday due to dry air and breezy afternoon winds. Fuel moisture continues to decrease this month, becoming drier than usual for late December.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 41 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 37 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 62 35 65 37 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 57 31 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 24 42 27 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 57 33 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 32 56 32 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 62 31 65 32 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 59 27 61 27 / 0 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 41 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 36 57 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 38 65 38 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 59 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 40 63 41 / 0 10 0 0 Jornada Range 58 30 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 62 30 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 37 66 37 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 33 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 32 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 26 52 29 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 26 51 28 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 54 25 59 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 59 32 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 57 29 63 31 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 28 56 29 / 0 10 0 0 Hurley 57 28 59 29 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 62 15 64 16 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 55 29 57 28 / 0 10 0 0 Faywood 57 32 60 32 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 62 28 66 29 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 62 29 65 29 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 33 67 34 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 35 59 36 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.