textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- Late-September surge of moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday morning across all of Southwest New Mexico and Far West Texas. Heavy rain will be capable of flash flooding, especially across south-central New Mexico and the Rio Grande Valley overnight.

- Flash Flood Watch in effect for the local area through 7 PM Wednesday evening. Heavy rain up to 3 to 5 inches is possible, which would cause significant flooding for some areas.

- Storm chances continue Wednesday through Friday, with a risk of localized flash flooding. Slight rain chances this weekend, with coverage decreasing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The entire region is under a Flood Watch from 12:00 PM MDT this afternoon until 7:00 PM MDT Wednesday evening. Flash flooding is likely with thunderstorms for all parts of the region during this time.

An upper-level high over the southern Plains and a trough moving through California and Nevada will facilitate a tight plume of monsoonal moisture from the Gulf of California into our region starting this afternoon. The backdoor cold front that moved into our region from the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico last night will assist in moisture convergence at the surface. All of this will result in several rounds of heavy thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. The overnight hours tonight into Wednesday morning is expected to be the most critical period for heavy rainfall potential.

As it stands, all models are favoring the heaviest precipitation through Wednesday evening to be centralized in northern Dona Ana County and western Sierra County, NM (especially in the Black Range). The most likely rainfall scenario would see isolated pockets of 3 to 5 inches within the broader 2-3 inch area through Thursday. A fair amount of the heavier rain will likely fall into basins that feed in south of Caballo Dam (everything south of Percha Creek), which will likely bring significant rises in the Rio Grande tonight and Wednesday.

Flash flooding will continue to be a hazard on Thursday, though rainfall totals will be slightly diminished compared to today and Wednesday, particularly out west. Flooding will be more of a risk out east in the Sacramento Mountains and the Texas Rio Grande Valley. As Thursday turns to Friday, rain will shift further east as an upper-level low moves over the Four Corners and renders showers and storms as widely scattered.

Quieter conditions will prevail this weekend as a ridge builds over the lower Rockies, but an active tropical Pacific and new West Coast trough could bring moisture back to the region early next week. It remains to be seen how much rain the region will get.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Widespread TSRA tonight across NM and W TX, often leading to TEMPO IFR VIS and prevailing MVFR CIGs at all local TAF sites. Surface winds 010-050 at 05-10 knots overnight, with gusts up to 25KT near TS. Widespread SHRA across S NM early Wednesday morning, with visibility 3-5 SM through at least 15Z. Temporary LIFR (1/2 SM VIS) included at KDMN/KTCS where rain is expected to be heaviest. More TSRA tomorrow afternoon, with some windows of VFR between storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The heavy rain event begins this afternoon and will continue through Friday morning. Min RHs will be in the 30s and 40s today before rising to the 60s-80s Wednesday morning. Flash flooding is likely from scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the region from today through Thursday, especially in the Black Range. 20ft winds will be out of the southeast at 10-15 mph today. Ventilation rates will be Poor throughout this time period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 75 64 79 / 80 90 60 60 Sierra Blanca 61 76 59 79 / 40 70 50 70 Las Cruces 61 71 59 75 / 100 90 70 60 Alamogordo 62 75 59 77 / 80 90 80 80 Cloudcroft 47 54 46 57 / 90 90 90 90 Truth or Consequences 60 68 59 73 / 100 100 70 70 Silver City 56 66 54 72 / 100 90 50 50 Deming 61 73 59 77 / 90 90 50 50 Lordsburg 61 72 59 77 / 90 80 30 10 West El Paso Metro 66 75 63 78 / 80 90 70 60 Dell City 65 78 62 80 / 50 90 70 80 Fort Hancock 68 83 65 86 / 50 80 50 70 Loma Linda 60 71 58 73 / 60 90 50 70 Fabens 66 78 64 82 / 60 90 50 60 Santa Teresa 63 73 61 77 / 90 90 70 60 White Sands HQ 64 73 62 77 / 100 90 70 70 Jornada Range 62 71 59 75 / 100 90 70 70 Hatch 62 73 61 77 / 100 100 70 70 Columbus 63 76 63 79 / 100 90 50 30 Orogrande 63 73 61 75 / 80 90 70 70 Mayhill 53 64 53 69 / 90 90 90 90 Mescalero 52 65 51 68 / 90 100 90 90 Timberon 50 62 48 65 / 90 90 90 90 Winston 54 62 53 68 / 100 100 70 80 Hillsboro 59 68 57 74 / 100 100 70 70 Spaceport 60 69 58 74 / 100 100 70 80 Lake Roberts 53 64 52 72 / 100 90 60 60 Hurley 57 68 55 73 / 100 90 50 50 Cliff 60 72 58 80 / 100 90 60 40 Mule Creek 57 68 55 76 / 90 90 60 40 Faywood 59 67 58 72 / 100 90 60 60 Animas 62 74 60 79 / 80 80 40 10 Hachita 61 73 59 77 / 90 80 40 20 Antelope Wells 61 76 59 79 / 80 80 30 30 Cloverdale 58 72 57 77 / 70 80 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.