textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Quiet weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures.

- Increasing chances for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday, with an upper level disturbance moving through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Quiet and benign weather will persist through the remainder of the work week. A shortwave trough grazing northern and eastern New Mexico overnight into Thursday will drop temperatures a couple of degrees for Thursday and Friday. Highs will run about 3 to 6 degrees below seasonal normals. With lighter winds Thursday night, overnight lows could drop into the upper-30s over the usual cold spots in the lowland deserts, especially in the Tularosa and Jornada basins. No new freeze areas are expected.

A deep trough and weak southeasterly push or backdoor cold front will bring increasing chances for light rain showers Friday night into Saturday. There remains uncertainty with how far south the trough will track, or if it will close off into a low aloft. A closed low scenario would favor at least some isolated thunderstorms. Higher terrain areas, and lowlands east of El Paso look to have the best shot at measurable rainfall.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light south to southwest winds this afternoon/evening will become variable overnight, and will favor northeast to easterly on Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 PM MST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low fire weather concerns as lingering effects of rainfall keep ERC values high. Slightly below normal temperatures the next few days will also promote strong radiational cooling at night, and excellent RH recovery even in the lowland deserts, while afternoon minimum RH values stay above 25 percent in the low elevations, and 40 percent at high elevations.

An upper level disturbance will bring some light rain chances to the area this weekend, favoring the higher terrain as usual, but also lowlands east of the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 71 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 71 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 43 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 37 49 33 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 45 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 38 62 42 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 40 67 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 37 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 50 71 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 46 71 42 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 77 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 65 43 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 52 75 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 69 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 68 47 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 41 67 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 43 70 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 44 69 46 68 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 46 66 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 39 60 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 40 61 36 59 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 38 57 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 32 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 64 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 43 66 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 65 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 64 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 33 69 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 30 66 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 40 69 43 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 41 67 44 65 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 44 70 45 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 66 46 64 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.