textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures.

- Next system arrives Friday afternoon, bringing rain chances and high elevation snow through Saturday afternoon.

- Slight chance of showers Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 946 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Upper ridge continues to build over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest, ahead of a deepening Pacific trough still off the west coast of the US. Meanwhile the sub-tropical jet remains active with deep layered sub-tropical moisture, but feature will remain well south of our area. Thus the upper ridge is the dominating playa over tonight into early Friday, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures.

Friday and Saturday...Pacific trough finally moves onshore as it continues to dig as very strong polar jet dives down the back side of the trough. As the Gulf of Alaska upper low weakens, a closed off low will form at the bottom of the trough and swing across the northern Baja Friday afternoon. This low will contain a decent amount of moisture and all three of GFS/ECMWF/RRFS showing low able to tap a bit of the sub-tropical moisture over Mexico. Good chance for showers to develop and make it as far east as the RG Valley by late Friday afternoon. GFS still shows good cold air aloft (about 5C deg cooling at 500mb), which should lead to decent instability with very modest CAPES. Because of this, an isolated thunderstorm will be possible with the showers. With the upper low tracking across northern Mexico or far southern New Mexico Friday night along with the surface cold front, showers will spread east over the rest of the area. Expect broad area of .25-.50 of rainfall across the area, with a few spots maybe hitting 1.0 inch with a thunderstorm. Most/all showers should be done in the east by mid day Saturday as the low quickly moves into central Texas. Snow levels will remain high, but an inch or so of snow is possible above 8500 ft. Rapidly moving upper low associated with the polar jet moves in right behind the exiting low but will track across Colorado Saturday night. Rain chances should remain north of the CWA, but could see some breezy winds Saturday night.

Sunday and Monday...short wave ridge sweeps in Sunday behind the exiting lows. Expect mostly clear skies again, but temperatures will be cool, a bit below normal, behind the cold front.

Tuesday and Wednesday...next Pacific system moves in with the low tracking across SoCal and Arizona. Both GFS/ECMWF similar with the track but ECMWF about 6-10 hours faster than GFS. Rain chances increase as early as Tuesday mid day and are likely done by mid day Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds AOB 6kts with some variability. Mainly SKC with SCT-BKN250 moving in Friday AM.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 437 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RH values stay above critical thresholds each day. RH values will be 25-35% in the lowlands and 30-40% in the area mountains today. Rain chances return Friday afternoon with continued showers overnight before exiting Saturday. Min RHs increase Friday to 40-50% in the lowlands and 45- 55% in the area mountains. Lowland min RHs stay the same Saturday but mountain RHs increase to 60-90%. Min RHs decrease again Sunday due to dry conditions but will be on the increase again early next week due to another round of rain that's expected to arrive Tuesday and Wednesday.

20 foot winds will stay light each afternoon at 5-10 mph except for Saturday afternoon as winds will be breezy with speeds generally 10- 20 mph. Temperatures will stay near normal today and tomorrow becoming below normal Saturday through mid-week next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 51 71 52 66 / 0 40 60 0 Sierra Blanca 46 69 47 63 / 0 40 70 0 Las Cruces 45 67 46 63 / 0 30 50 0 Alamogordo 45 69 47 63 / 0 30 70 30 Cloudcroft 33 49 34 39 / 0 30 70 40 Truth or Consequences 44 64 46 63 / 0 30 50 0 Silver City 43 61 41 54 / 0 20 30 20 Deming 45 67 45 63 / 0 30 40 0 Lordsburg 48 68 45 62 / 0 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 52 70 53 65 / 0 40 50 0 Dell City 45 71 50 66 / 0 30 60 10 Fort Hancock 51 78 53 71 / 0 40 60 0 Loma Linda 47 66 47 59 / 0 40 60 0 Fabens 50 75 52 68 / 0 40 60 0 Santa Teresa 48 69 49 64 / 0 30 40 0 White Sands HQ 50 69 51 65 / 0 30 60 0 Jornada Range 43 67 46 64 / 0 30 60 0 Hatch 45 70 47 67 / 0 30 50 0 Columbus 48 70 49 67 / 0 20 30 0 Orogrande 45 69 48 63 / 0 30 70 0 Mayhill 36 62 40 52 / 0 30 60 20 Mescalero 36 61 39 51 / 0 30 70 50 Timberon 35 58 36 51 / 0 30 70 40 Winston 36 58 36 55 / 0 40 40 0 Hillsboro 45 64 43 62 / 0 30 50 0 Spaceport 43 66 45 64 / 0 30 60 0 Lake Roberts 37 60 37 53 / 0 30 40 30 Hurley 41 64 40 58 / 0 20 30 10 Cliff 43 68 44 61 / 0 30 70 30 Mule Creek 43 64 42 56 / 0 20 70 40 Faywood 45 63 44 57 / 0 20 40 10 Animas 46 69 46 64 / 0 30 20 0 Hachita 45 68 45 63 / 0 20 40 0 Antelope Wells 46 69 46 63 / 0 30 40 0 Cloverdale 47 63 45 57 / 0 30 30 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.