textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Weak cold front arrives tonight, shifting winds out of the east and bringing mild temperatures for Tuesday. Dry conditions will continue through Thursday with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

- Precipitation chances return Friday into the upcoming weekend with the arrival of a Pacific low. Mountain snow and lowland wintry mixed precipitation are possible as much colder air moves in from the east.

..FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND

GFS/ECMWF solutions remain in good agreement in the development of a shortwave jet streak within the prevailing Pacific ridge late this week, inducing an upper low off the coast of Baja California Friday into the weekend. Favorable fetch of Pacific moisture out of the southwest will begin a top-down increase in moisture locally as early as Thursday, with precipitation chances beginning on Friday. This would begin as lowland rain and high (7,500' and higher) snow on Friday. However, strong surface high and cold airmass over the Southern Plains would favor another cold front and push of cold air into the region Saturday into Sunday. The exact timing and strength of this cold front will determine snow chances for the lowlands the Rio Grande valley. Current forecast keeps the majority of snow over the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, but this weekend will need to be monitored for changes to the forecast regarding wintry weather and possible lowland snow. Better confidence in below normal temperatures Sunday and next Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

VMC through forecast period under west flow aloft. Skies SCT- BKN250 this afternoon with surface winds AOB 5 knots. FROPA around sunset (00-03Z) tonight with surface winds shifting out of the east 060-090 at 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots at mountain-top (2,000 feet AGL) and along west slopes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Dry conditions with light west flow and Poor ventilation today. Min RH 15-25%. Backdoor cold front arriving tonight, shifting winds out of the east into Tuesday.

Low fire danger this week with temperatures near normal and min RH above critical thresholds. ERCs are slightly above normal over local forests due to recent dryness. Light winds each afternoon will keep vent rates in the Poor category, with the prevailing direction out of the west Wednesday/Thursday.

Increasing cloud coverage on Thursday with precipitation chances beginning on Friday as a Pacific low approaches. Much colder temperatures this weekend will bring a chance for mountain snow accumulations, especially for Lincoln National Forest and the Black Range in western New Mexico.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 32 58 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 24 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 27 54 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 25 56 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 21 40 24 44 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 29 57 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 29 56 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 28 58 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 30 58 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 33 57 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 22 55 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 26 61 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 27 53 32 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 29 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 28 56 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 31 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 23 56 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 24 58 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 30 57 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 26 54 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 19 56 25 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 21 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 21 48 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 21 54 22 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 28 57 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 22 56 23 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 26 57 26 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 26 56 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 26 62 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 59 25 61 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 30 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 29 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 28 57 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 27 60 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 32 61 38 62 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.