textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A strong backdoor cold front is set to arrive Thursday night, bringing gusty winds and well below normal temperatures into the weekend.

- High Wind Warning is in effect for far west Texas and portions of southern New Mexico for Thursday night into Friday. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible along mountain west slopes.

- Scattered rain showers starting Monday and continuing through next Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Very strong winds and much cooler temperatures are coming to Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Thursday night and Friday. A low pressure circulation in Colorado will exit the Rockies to the east Thursday morning. A significant push of cooler air from Canada will fill in behind the system and move further south. A very strong 1041 mb surface high is driving this air mass southward along the Front Range into New Mexico.

The cold front boundary will reach the local area by late Thursday afternoon, reaching the El Paso and Las Cruces metro areas Thursday evening. There is tight pressure gradient packing and a low level jet with this front that will result in strong northeasterly to easterly winds spreading across the area Thursday evening through Friday afternoon. Sustained wind speeds of 30 to 40 mph with wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are expected begin Thursday evening and lasting into Friday for Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties. A High wind warning has been issued for the previously mentioned counties along with Hidalgo and southern Grant counties where wind speeds will reach warning criteria on Friday.

The remainder of the forecast area will experience strong winds reaching wind advisory levels with gusts to 50 mph, but are expected to remain below wind warning levels. Blowing dust is likely with the strong winds, especially in El Paso and Hudspeth counties along with southern portions of Dona Ana, Luna counties beginning late Thursday evening. Blowing dust is also expected along the playas in Hidalgo county on Friday.

Much cooler temperatures are also expected Friday into Saturday with day time high temperatures struggling to reach the lower 60s in the lowlands. Many areas will see temperatures as much as 12 to 16 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday. Freezing temperatures are expected for the mountains Friday and Saturday mornings.

Chances for precipitation through Saturday remain near zero. A potential moisture surge into the area, hinted at by previous model forecasts, has shifted south and is not expected to be a factor in our local weather pattern through the weekend.

The long term outlook for Sunday and much of next week looks wetter and warmer. A weakening low pressure system off of the Baja Peninsula will move into the desert southwest, pulling subtropical moisture into the region as early as Sunday afternoon. There will be a slight chance of showers for the bootheel on Sunday afternoon with a greater chance of showers across the region starting Monday afternoon through next Thursday. The main driver for the precip will be a deep low pressure system dropping down along the west coast before moving inland and through the region on Thursday. There will be a chance of rain Monday afternoon through next Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through Thursday afternoon. Aside from morning FEW060-080, ceilings will be unlimited at all four TAF sites. Some low end gusty winds from the west will be present for a few hours in the afternoon before dropping off and shifting more northerly in the late afternoon.

After 00Z a strong cold front will arrive from the northeast tomorrow evening. Winds will shift to the northeast and become very strong. Winds will be at least 08030G40KT with higher gusts to 50 knots possible. Some blowing dust is likely at KELP beginning 03Z Thursday night through 18Z Friday. Low level wind shear will also occur after 00Z Thursday night, especially over KELP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 931 AM MDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Limited fire weather concerns today and tomorrow. Min RHs today will be above 20%, and for Thursday, lowland Min RHs will be in the mid-to-upper teens and up to 30% in the mountains. Low end gusty winds from the west likely by this afternoon and the north on Thursday.

A strong backdoor cold front (moving east to west) will move into the region Thursday night. Winds will shift to the east in the evening hours and increase drastically. The strongest winds will be west of the area mountains as well as Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties. Sustained wind speeds of 25-35 mph likely for most of the region, with high-end wind gusts reaching 60 mph in the mountains. The strong winds will continue into Friday before diminishing slightly on Saturday. Precipitation chances will be low on Friday and Saturday, favoring out east in West Texas as well as the area mountains. The high mountains may even see a wintry mix early Saturday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 80 54 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 80 47 56 / 0 0 10 0 Las Cruces 51 75 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 77 48 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 58 27 40 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 47 72 48 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 42 71 45 60 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 75 50 65 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 46 76 51 64 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 79 55 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 81 52 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 88 54 65 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 53 75 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 85 55 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 54 78 53 62 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 78 51 67 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 48 76 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 49 77 49 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 79 53 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 76 49 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 43 68 34 49 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 70 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 66 33 49 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 66 36 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 71 46 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 48 74 46 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 72 39 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 73 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 44 78 50 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 40 74 45 66 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 71 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 77 53 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 76 50 62 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 77 50 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 47 73 48 57 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley.

High Wind Warning from 9 PM Thursday to midnight MDT Friday night for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Uplands of the Bootheel.

High Wind Warning from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Wind Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to noon MDT Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Northern Dona Ana County-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.