textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1231 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- A pattern change arrives on Thursday as a Pacific system brings scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through Friday.

- Backdoor cold front gives us cooler temperatures and breezy east winds late this week.

- Normal temperatures will return by Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Fairly thick high clouds are streaming into the area, well ahead of an upper low located off the southern California coast. This low will head east, reaching northern Baja California by tomorrow afternoon. As it approaches, clouds will gradually increase and lower in height.

This system will weaken as it rolls across northern Sonora Thursday night, lifting across El Paso as an open trough early Friday morning.

Most areas stand a good chance of wetting rainfall, especially along the International border and far eastern areas (Otero and Hudspeth counties). But since we are currently seeing RH values in the 4 to 8 percent range across the area, we'll have some dry air to eradicate before precip can reach the ground. As a result, it will probably take until Thursday night to see precip in the lowlands, and the best chances in and around El Paso and Las Cruces will be after midnight Thursday night/Friday morning.

Generally speaking, expect 0.10 to 0.20 inches across the northwest, 0.25 to 0.50 across the southern lowlands, 0.50 to 0.75 in Hudspeth and Otero Counties with a chance of higher amounts in the Sacramentos. All beneficial rainfall, but as usual there will be some random drier spots.

A backdoor cold front will push west in the wake of this system on Friday. Additional showers look to develop in a band along and behind the front Friday afternoon, aided by overrunning flow ahead of a secondary shortwave trough slowly approaching the Four Corners. This band will mostly dissipate by Friday night, but additional showers may flare up, mainly north and east of El Paso on Saturday as the secondary shortwave grazes New Mexico. Depending on the timing of spotty showers, some rain/snow mix could occur in the highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains, but no accumulation is expected.

Sharply cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday, with highs as much as 15 degrees below normal. Temps will get a bounce back into the 70s for the lowlands on Sunday, then near normal (low to mid-80s) for Monday, as breezy west flow develops.

Another weak shortwave trough could bring a few showers back to southern New Mexico on Tuesday, along with breezy southwest winds.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR through the period with gradually thickening and lowering high to mid-level clouds. A few breezy gusts around 20 to 25 knots this afternoon, but light and variable winds tonight, with light westerly winds to start Thursday. Precip looks unlikely to affect TAF sites until after 18Z Thursday, and more likely after 00Z Friday for that matter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 PM MDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Fire weather conditions will begin to ease starting on Thursday, as an approaching upper low brings increasing moisture to the area. This system will bring wetting rainfall to most of southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Thursday night into Friday. The best chances for rain will be across the southern lowlands, and especially the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County, with lower rainfall amounts across the Gila. Temperatures will also fall to around 10 to 15 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday, as a backdoor cold front pushes in behind the system. Breezy west winds will return on Sunday, with a return to normal temperatures by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 68 79 55 68 / 0 10 90 60 Sierra Blanca 68 76 53 63 / 0 20 90 70 Las Cruces 56 75 48 67 / 0 10 90 60 Alamogordo 60 77 50 63 / 0 10 90 80 Cloudcroft 45 55 38 40 / 0 20 100 90 Truth or Consequences 57 78 51 66 / 0 10 70 70 Silver City 48 70 45 66 / 0 10 60 50 Deming 53 78 50 73 / 0 20 80 60 Lordsburg 51 75 48 75 / 0 20 60 20 West El Paso Metro 66 77 54 67 / 0 10 90 60 Dell City 61 79 52 61 / 0 10 90 70 Fort Hancock 71 83 56 72 / 10 10 90 60 Loma Linda 60 72 51 60 / 0 10 100 70 Fabens 68 79 56 70 / 0 10 90 60 Santa Teresa 64 75 51 67 / 0 10 90 50 White Sands HQ 69 77 51 66 / 0 10 90 70 Jornada Range 57 76 49 66 / 0 10 90 70 Hatch 59 79 49 71 / 0 10 80 70 Columbus 60 77 51 74 / 0 20 90 40 Orogrande 61 75 52 62 / 0 10 90 80 Mayhill 48 67 41 45 / 0 20 100 90 Mescalero 46 65 42 49 / 0 20 100 90 Timberon 45 63 44 48 / 0 10 100 90 Winston 44 71 40 61 / 0 10 60 70 Hillsboro 56 75 47 66 / 0 10 70 70 Spaceport 53 76 49 66 / 0 10 80 70 Lake Roberts 38 71 43 68 / 0 10 60 60 Hurley 48 73 45 69 / 0 10 70 50 Cliff 45 77 45 76 / 0 20 50 40 Mule Creek 41 74 43 73 / 0 10 30 30 Faywood 50 72 47 66 / 0 10 70 60 Animas 55 74 47 75 / 0 20 70 20 Hachita 56 74 49 73 / 0 30 80 30 Antelope Wells 57 74 50 75 / 0 40 80 20 Cloverdale 52 67 46 70 / 0 40 70 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.