textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Isolated rain showers for southwestern New Mexico this afternoon.

- Breezy conditions on Wednesday, with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon. Better chance for rain showers in the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains.

- Mild temperatures through Friday before a cold front pushes in this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

For the rest of the week, a series of storm systems progress through the western US but with minor impacts for the Borderland. The first system will be a weak ripple within zonal flow today, bringing low-end rain chances west of the Divide later today. Enough mid-level moisture and forcing will be present to spark a few light rain/virga showers this afternoon and evening as the dry boundary layer evaporates most of the rain before reaching the surface. Gusty outflows up to 40 mph may loft dust. Dry conditions expected E of the Divide today with modestly breezy W winds area-wide.

A well-timed upper trough for wind swings through the Four Corners on Wed, inducing a 995-ish mb low in southeast CO. It's not a very potent trough and the low isn't in the best position for strong boundary layer winds, but a breezy to low-end windy day is expected. Winds shift from SW to W during the day as the Pacific front sweeps across. 700mb flow of 30-35kts are forecast with higher speeds over area mtns, coming close to Wind Advisory criteria for the Blacks and Sacs later in the day. Winds of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40-45 are forecast in the afternoon. Some BLDU can be seen during the afternoon, most likely in far west TX. VIS could fall to as low as 3 miles. The more westerly wind direction should limit dust impacts in El Paso from the Chihuahuan dust sources. Winds settle down Wed night as the system ejects into the Central Plains. The Pacific front will bring low rain chances in the afternoon and evening, progressing from NW-SE. Any rainfall will be very light outside of the Sacs which could see up to 0.25".

Zonal flow returns for Thursday with typical afternoon breeziness (gusts up to 30 mph) and fair skies. The next system will pass well to the north on Fri, too far to give us any strong winds. That same disturbance brings a backdoor cold front Fri night, flipping our winds easterly for Sat. As the sfc high drifts eastward early next week, SE flow takes over with increasing moisture along the more diffuse front. We'll see if enough moisture is available for any rain chances to return late in the forecast period (Sun-Tue). GEFS is more bullish on moisture creeping in than the Euro ENS.

After a warm day today, temps fall to near normal for Wed behind the front. We go back above average for Thu/Fri, then cooling over the weekend after the backdoor front.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Occasional gusts this afternoon from W-SW to 20kts, otherwise AOB 10kts through tonight. Winds increase late in the period as a storm system moves into the region. Gusts approach 30kts by 18z Wed. Medium- high confidence in AWW criteria being met for KELP Wed afternoon. Isolated -SHRA develop west of KDMN this afternoon with potential for outflow gusts to 30kts and some BLDU, but confidence is low. Otherwise, BKN/OVC200-250.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low-moderate for the rest of the workweek. For this afternoon, elevated fire weather conditions are forecast with min RHs near or just below critical thresholds and modestly breezy W winds of 10-15 mph at 20 feet. A few light rain showers develop this afternoon W of the Divide with an isolated dry lightning strike or two possible. Some showers could produce gusty and erratic outflow winds up to 40 mph. Overnight recoveries will be good. A storm system passes to the north on Wed, bringing a low chance of rain during the day, mainly for area mtns. Rainfall will be light; up to 0.25" for the Sacs. Winds become breezy to low-end windy for the afternoon, shifting SW to W behind the Pacific front. The rain chances and added moisture from the system will limit fire wx concerns Wed afternoon.

For Thu, drier conditions are forecast, but winds return to modestly breezy levels, resulting in elevated fire wx. Critical fire danger is not expected through Fri. A cold front shifts winds E for Sat before moisture levels increase early next week. Temperatures cool to near normal for Wed, warming a few degrees for Thu/Fri.

Min RHs range from 10-25% this afternoon, 20-45% for Wed; then 8-20% through Fri. Ventilation will be very good to excellent through Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 79 53 83 / 0 10 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 79 47 81 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 55 74 44 79 / 0 20 0 0 Alamogordo 55 75 42 81 / 0 40 10 0 Cloudcroft 42 52 32 56 / 10 50 20 0 Truth or Consequences 58 73 45 80 / 10 20 0 0 Silver City 49 63 40 71 / 10 40 0 0 Deming 56 75 44 81 / 10 20 0 0 Lordsburg 52 70 41 78 / 10 30 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 77 53 81 / 0 20 0 0 Dell City 54 81 46 83 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 58 86 50 87 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 57 73 48 75 / 0 20 0 0 Fabens 60 82 51 84 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 75 48 82 / 0 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 76 52 80 / 0 20 0 0 Jornada Range 54 73 41 81 / 0 20 0 0 Hatch 57 76 42 82 / 0 20 0 0 Columbus 60 77 49 83 / 10 20 0 0 Orogrande 55 75 44 81 / 0 20 10 0 Mayhill 47 67 37 71 / 0 40 10 0 Mescalero 44 63 34 67 / 10 50 20 0 Timberon 45 62 36 67 / 0 30 10 0 Winston 44 64 32 72 / 10 30 0 0 Hillsboro 54 70 41 78 / 10 20 0 0 Spaceport 52 73 38 81 / 0 20 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 62 36 70 / 20 50 0 0 Hurley 49 67 39 74 / 10 30 0 0 Cliff 48 69 38 78 / 20 50 0 0 Mule Creek 47 65 38 73 / 20 50 0 0 Faywood 51 67 41 74 / 10 30 0 0 Animas 55 73 44 81 / 10 20 0 0 Hachita 55 73 43 81 / 10 20 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 74 45 81 / 20 20 0 0 Cloverdale 52 68 46 75 / 20 20 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.