textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon for the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County, otherwise dry and hot for the this weekend into much of next week.

- Temperatures unseasonably hot Saturday through next Friday, with the hottest period looking to be Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Looks like we are entering a more static weather pattern in the mid/long term as the mid and upper highs become stacked over northern Mexico and the Baja. In the short term for today we continue with the mid level high over southern New Mexico. Most of the deeper layered moisture that was over the CWA Thursday has vanished in place this morning. Dewpoints are already lowering, with 30s west mixing out as far east as the RG Valley this afternoon. Best moisture will remain over Otero/Hudspeth Counties, with afternoon dewpoints still in the 40s to 50 and PWs around one inch. Thus isolated afternoon thunderstorms look plausible for the Sacs and Hudspeth Co, with a few over Hudspeth lasting into early evening.

Aforementioned static pattern will turn up the heat knob after today. While today will see near 100 El Paso metro area and lower valley, high temps Saturday through much of next will gradually warm, with Tue-Fri looking to be the hottest. NBM MOS temps for this period run from 103-107 across the lowlands. 90th percentile highs for the same period range from 105-110. Needless to say we are probably looking at several days of Heat Advisories and could approach Heat Warnings as we enter the two week window of hottest temperatures climatologically.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions through the period. SCT-BKN100 SCT-BKN250. Developing over the Sac Mtns and Hudspeth County after 19Z...isolated BKN080CB - TSRA. Surface winds west 8-12 knots but outflow from the eastern storms will produce east winds gusting to 25-35 knots late afternoon and evening across Dona Ana, Otero, El Paso, and Hudspeth Counties.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1101 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Fire concerns for the week ahead mostly concerned with very dry and hot conditions developing. Other than isolated thunderstorms persisting this afternoon over the Sacramento Mtns and Hudspeth zone, the rest of the forecast period looks dry and unseasonably hot, with high temps around 5-8 degrees above normal. Fuels will continue to dry out, though no significant non-thunderstorm winds are expected. ERCs are forecast to be at or above 90th percentile by the end of this weekend (a few days later for the Sacramento Mtns). So, fire conditions to remain elevated through the weekend and most of next week.

Min RH: Lowlands...12% west to 23% east today, decreasing to 5-10% all lowlands Saturday through Tuesday. Gila/Black Range...15-25% today, decreasing to 6-13% Saturday through Tuesday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...25-35% today, decreasing to 8-15% Saturday through Tuesday. Vent rates fair-good east of the Rio Grande Valley today, becoming good-very good Saturday through Tuesday; very good- excellent through Tuesday west of the Rio Grande Valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 103 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 99 68 100 / 20 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 101 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 68 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 52 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 70 102 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 60 94 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 102 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 98 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 101 68 104 / 20 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 104 74 106 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 67 96 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 71 104 72 104 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 101 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 102 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 65 101 63 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 67 104 65 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 103 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 100 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 55 91 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 55 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 52 87 54 88 / 10 0 0 0 Winston 59 94 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 98 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 101 62 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 94 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 61 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 55 98 54 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 94 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 64 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 99 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 93 63 94 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.