textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Hot temperatures persisting into early August. Lowland highs 100 to 105 each afternoon, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Rain chances will be limited to the high elevations and Southwest New Mexico this week. Isolated storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A heavy dome of high pressure remains over southwest CONUS today and is expected to throughout the next several days at least. There still remains good moisture underneath the dome, with PWAT values likely to get at or above 0.9-1.0" today through the next several days. This sets the stage for continued thunderstorm development over the high terrain early each afternoon, drifting off into the lower elevation areas mid to late afternoon. The threat for locally heavy rainfall remains with these storms, as they are likely to be slow moving with efficient rainfall rates. Areas in the Gila Region and the Sacramento Mountains are close to saturation based on satellite-derived soil moisture, while areas from Las Cruces to Deming to El Paso and south along the Rio Grande are very dry. Both ends of the soil moisture spectrum can lead to flooding issues with efficient rainfall rates should a storm form in these areas. While there are low precipitation chances in the lowlands near the US- Mexico border each day, a few colliding outflow boundaries in the area may develop an isolated storm (low confidence).

Another feature of this high pressure are the consistent hot temperatures across the lower elevations. Repeated days of 100F or greater high temperatures, combined with high 70s to even low 80s low temperatures will increase the risk of heat-related impacts and illnesses. A Heat Advisory was issued for Monday for areas along the Rio Grande Valley in our TX forecast areas, including the El Paso metro area. There is rather high confidence that these areas will see future Heat Advisories as well, given the high likelihood of these temperatures persisting throughout the next several days.

Not much change in the overall weather pattern is expected throughout much of this week. The center of the high pressure is likely to slowly meander its way westward towards AZ, but will not do much to drastically change the conditions. Expecting the daily thunderstorm chances and hot temperatures to continue throughout the next several days, just perhaps a slight change in storm motion each day.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VMC expected through forecast period under light flow aloft. Surface winds 260-320 at 05 to 10 knots overnight across S NM, VRB03KT for KELP. Skies FEW-SCT150, becoming mostly clear by sunrise Monday. Isolated TSRA over the S NM mountains again tomorrow, likely not affecting local terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days. Hot temperatures continue, especially in the lower elevation areas near the Rio Grande Valley. Daily thunderstorm activity is likely across the high terrain in the Gila Region and near the Sacramento Mountains. Storms will likely produce frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall, which may cause isolated flash flooding in areas. Any recent burn areas and saturated soils will be at higher risk for flooding. Minimum humidity values are likely to remain in the mid teens. Any wind threats will be localized from thunderstorm activity, with the overall winds remaining rather light.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 105 79 106 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 71 100 71 101 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 74 103 77 103 / 10 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 56 79 58 79 / 10 20 10 20 Truth or Consequences 74 102 76 103 / 10 0 10 10 Silver City 66 94 67 94 / 10 10 10 40 Deming 72 103 73 104 / 0 0 10 10 Lordsburg 71 99 73 100 / 10 0 10 10 West El Paso Metro 80 104 80 105 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 73 104 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 106 78 107 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 72 97 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 78 105 78 106 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 76 102 77 104 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 75 104 76 104 / 0 0 10 10 Hatch 74 105 75 106 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 77 104 78 105 / 0 0 10 0 Orogrande 73 102 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 91 63 91 / 10 20 10 20 Mescalero 60 91 62 91 / 10 10 10 30 Timberon 58 88 60 89 / 10 10 10 20 Winston 63 93 65 93 / 10 20 10 30 Hillsboro 71 99 73 100 / 10 10 10 20 Spaceport 72 102 73 103 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 61 94 61 95 / 20 20 10 60 Hurley 67 97 68 98 / 10 10 10 30 Cliff 67 99 68 100 / 20 20 20 30 Mule Creek 65 95 66 96 / 10 20 20 40 Faywood 68 97 69 98 / 10 10 10 40 Animas 71 99 71 99 / 20 10 30 0 Hachita 70 99 71 100 / 20 0 20 10 Antelope Wells 70 98 69 98 / 10 20 30 10 Cloverdale 66 92 64 92 / 30 20 50 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.