textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1006 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Temperatures near normal through the weekend with lowland highs in the lower/mid 80s.

- Mostly dry conditions through the week ahead, a much needed break after September's heavy rain. A low chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The subtropical moisture along and S of the Int'l border will drift further into MX for Tuesday as our weak upper high is replaced by a weak low over Utah. Less cloud cover is forecast with no chance of rain in the short term. Light winds with near- normal temps for Tue.

The upper low expands SE for Wed, creating a bit of forcing and very slight rain/storm chances in area mtns. Meager moisture will limit rainfall where weak convection does develop. A weak Rex block looks to form for Thu across the Four Corners, pushing the low towards the Big Bend region. Moisture levels remain modest into late week with PWs in the 0.7-0.8" range, which is enough to spark a few showers or storms in the Sacs on Thu. Gusty winds and lightning are the main hazards as the lowlands stay dry.

The upper trough looks to weaken and drift over South Texas into the weekend with not much lift or moisture to spark showers or storms Fri/Sat. Early next week, a mid-latitude trough is progged to move through the Great Basin, scooping up moisture ahead of it late in the period. Low-end rain chances return next Sun/Mon, favoring western areas. We'll see exactly how windy/wet it'll be depending on the track of the low through the Rockies. The low should also bring cooler air around the middle of next week. Until then, temps will be around normal with light winds continuing.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mostly SKC tonight as moisture retreats further into Mexico. FEW-SCT060 CU develop in the afternoon. Winds will be AOB 6kts mostly from E.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 919 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Recent rains and decent Min RHs in the 40s-50s will keep fire danger low today. Min RHs will decrease to the 20s-30s into midweek as drier weather (compared to the last few days) lies ahead.

Continued southeast winds at 10-15 mph will keep ventilation rates poor today and tomorrow. Light easterly flow will continue into midweek, with some mountain showers possible Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 77 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 79 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 60 43 61 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 54 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 58 81 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 81 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 84 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 75 59 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 81 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 58 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 79 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 73 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 46 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 46 67 48 69 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 46 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 56 78 57 81 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 54 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 52 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 54 82 56 85 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 51 80 55 82 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 54 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 58 82 59 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 81 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.