textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Scattered severe storms possible Saturday afternoon with damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding possible.

- Highs will be cooler over the weekend, but triple digits return early next week. Expect continued daily thunderstorm chances focusing over the area mountains and western locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected tomorrow with almost all locations having a good chance to see a storm. Biggest threat will be severe wind gusts from outflows (58+ mph). Some potential for isolated severe hail (1"+). Flash flooding threat looks greatest over the Sacramento Mtns and Otero Mesa, and a lower threat (but still possible) elsewhere across the CWA. Activity looks to persist into the early overnight hours before moving into Mexico overnight. Upper high pressure continues to meander over the desert southwest through around mid-week next week allowing for a rebound in temperatures back to the triple digits for a good portion of the desert lowlands starting Monday. Daily thunderstorm chances exist with a focus over the area mountains and western locations.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1021 PM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Much of the storm activity has fizzled out. Some lingering showers out there with KELP having the best shot to see light showers the next few hours. Light winds and calm overnight. An active thunderstorm day is expected tomorrow with all terminals having a good chance to see storms tomorrow afternoon. Storms will move north to south. KELP will probably continue to still see storms through around midnight or so.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Very hot conditions are expected in the lowlands today with many locations seeing one of the hottest days of the year, so far. Afternoon RH values will dip into the mid to upper teens in the lowlands. Winds will be light with good vent categories. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon before pushing into the lowlands late afternoon into the evening. Saturday will not be as hot with higher afternoon humidity along with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday, drier and warmer conditions will return to most of the area. Thunderstorm chances will largely be held to the mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 78 100 75 98 / 40 20 30 10 Sierra Blanca 70 95 67 93 / 10 20 30 0 Las Cruces 73 99 69 96 / 40 40 60 0 Alamogordo 71 98 68 95 / 50 40 50 20 Cloudcroft 52 74 51 72 / 50 70 50 20 Truth or Consequences 74 99 70 97 / 20 20 30 10 Silver City 67 92 64 90 / 30 60 30 30 Deming 75 100 69 97 / 20 30 40 0 Lordsburg 73 99 71 97 / 20 40 40 10 West El Paso Metro 79 100 75 97 / 40 20 30 10 Dell City 73 98 70 97 / 10 30 20 0 Fort Hancock 78 102 75 100 / 20 20 40 10 Loma Linda 71 92 68 90 / 30 40 30 10 Fabens 77 100 74 99 / 20 20 40 10 Santa Teresa 75 98 72 96 / 50 20 30 10 White Sands HQ 77 99 73 97 / 60 40 60 0 Jornada Range 74 99 69 96 / 50 50 70 0 Hatch 74 103 69 99 / 30 40 50 10 Columbus 77 100 73 98 / 40 30 40 0 Orogrande 71 97 68 94 / 50 30 40 0 Mayhill 58 84 56 84 / 40 80 40 20 Mescalero 57 85 55 83 / 40 70 60 20 Timberon 56 82 54 81 / 40 70 30 20 Winston 62 91 61 89 / 20 50 40 30 Hillsboro 70 97 66 95 / 20 40 40 20 Spaceport 71 99 67 96 / 40 30 40 10 Lake Roberts 61 93 59 91 / 20 70 30 60 Hurley 68 95 65 93 / 20 50 30 20 Cliff 69 100 68 98 / 30 50 20 30 Mule Creek 67 96 65 93 / 20 40 20 20 Faywood 70 94 66 92 / 20 40 40 10 Animas 74 100 71 97 / 20 40 60 10 Hachita 73 98 69 96 / 30 30 50 10 Antelope Wells 73 97 70 96 / 30 30 40 10 Cloverdale 70 94 67 92 / 20 40 50 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.