textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal through the weekend, with El Paso near the 100 degree mark.

- Suppressed thunderstorm chances again today, with some increase for Sunday and Monday. - Deeper moisture will overspread the area, with a sharp increase in thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Friday. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Main upper high remains over the Mexican Sonoran Desert. Plenty of recycled moisture remains under this high over southern Arizona and New Mexico. Possible short waves over eastern Arizona helped kick off convection over the western CWA this evening. Significant drying out at low levels (sfc dewpoints) occurred over southern New Mexico from the RG Valley east-handled well by the HRRR. This ended any chance of storms in this area tonight.

Saturday and Sunday...upper high slowly drifts east across New Mexico over the souther Plains by Sunday. Dewpoints do recover some, but still noticeably drier over much of the central and eastern CWA. Best chances for thunderstorms both days will be over the mountains (mainly Black Range) and areas west of the RG Valley. Temperatures will remain well above normal and the lowlands could see their last triple digit readings of the year.

Monday and beyond...upper high continues east as far as eastern Tennessee by Tuesday, then begins retrograding back, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday and then over Texas by Friday. This means from Monday into next weekend, there will be good-to excellent chances of rain for most of the CWA. The key will be how strong of ridging noses westward toward New Mexico from the upper high. Models have been inconsistent with this. If this ridging takes place, moisture will be limited mostly to the western half of the CWA; if not then most of the CWA will see some rain. Wednesday through Saturday PWs increase to 1.2-1.4 inches so flood potential likely to increase during this period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 658 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Another day with generally suppressed convective activity, mainly focused over the higher terrain. Storm motion will be more west to east, keeping any activity over the Gila out of the southern lowlands. High res models have limited activity over the Gila, but an upstream disturbance evident on satellite imagery was enough to hedge bets a bit and put a PROB30 for a gusty thunderstorm at TCS this evening. VFR and light winds elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 658 AM MDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Another day of suppressed thunderstorm activity today, with isolated coverage over the Gila Region, and an outside chance over the Sacramento Mountains. Expect a slow increase in thunderstorm coverage Sunday and Monday, with more widespread activity from Tuesday. Plenty of wetting rain, especially in the higher terrain, decreasing temperatures, and higher RH values can be expected through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 99 74 97 / 0 0 40 10 Sierra Blanca 68 96 67 94 / 10 10 10 0 Las Cruces 69 97 69 95 / 0 0 30 30 Alamogordo 70 98 70 95 / 0 10 20 20 Cloudcroft 54 76 52 73 / 0 30 20 40 Truth or Consequences 70 96 70 93 / 10 0 20 50 Silver City 63 90 63 86 / 10 20 40 60 Deming 68 98 68 95 / 10 0 40 50 Lordsburg 69 94 69 91 / 10 20 50 50 West El Paso Metro 76 99 75 96 / 0 0 30 10 Dell City 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 75 103 74 101 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 69 92 68 90 / 0 10 30 10 Fabens 73 100 72 98 / 10 0 20 10 Santa Teresa 71 97 71 95 / 0 0 30 20 White Sands HQ 74 99 73 96 / 0 10 30 30 Jornada Range 67 97 68 95 / 10 0 30 40 Hatch 70 100 70 97 / 10 0 30 40 Columbus 73 98 73 96 / 10 10 30 40 Orogrande 67 97 68 94 / 0 10 40 20 Mayhill 58 88 57 86 / 0 30 10 50 Mescalero 57 87 57 84 / 0 30 20 40 Timberon 57 85 55 82 / 0 10 20 20 Winston 59 86 59 84 / 10 40 20 60 Hillsboro 69 95 68 92 / 10 10 30 60 Spaceport 66 97 67 94 / 10 0 20 40 Lake Roberts 55 87 56 84 / 20 20 30 70 Hurley 64 91 64 89 / 10 10 40 50 Cliff 61 96 63 93 / 10 10 40 50 Mule Creek 56 90 58 88 / 10 10 30 40 Faywood 65 91 66 89 / 10 10 40 50 Animas 69 94 68 92 / 10 40 50 60 Hachita 68 94 67 91 / 10 20 50 60 Antelope Wells 67 93 66 91 / 10 40 40 50 Cloverdale 64 87 64 85 / 20 40 50 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.