textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon for the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County, becoming dry area wide this weekend.

- Very hot temperatures Saturday through next Friday, with much of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas above 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Looks like we are entering a more static weather pattern in the mid/long term as the mid and upper highs become stacked over northern Mexico and the Baja. In the short term for today we continue with the mid level high over southern New Mexico. Most of the deeper layered moisture that was over the CWA Thursday has vanished in place this morning. Dewpoints are already lowering, with 30s west mixing out as far east as the RG Valley this afternoon. Best moisture will remain over Otero/Hudspeth Counties, with afternoon dewpoints still in the 40s to 50 and PWs around one inch. Thus isolated afternoon thunderstorms look plausible for the Sacs and Hudspeth Co, with a few over Hudspeth lasting into early evening.

Aforementioned static pattern will turn up the heat knob after today. While today will see near 100 El Paso metro area and lower valley, high temps Saturday through much of next will gradually warm, with Tue-Fri looking to be the hottest. NBM MOS temps for this period run from 103-107 across the lowlands. 90th percentile highs for the same period range from 105-110. Needless to say we are probably looking at several days of Heat Advisories and could approach Excessive Heat Warnings as we enter the two week window of hottest temperatures climatologically.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Outflow from distant TS moving through KELP/KLRU this hour. Surface winds ENE 060-090 with gusts up to 35 knots through 01Z. BLDU reducing VIS to 5SM. Quiet weather overnight with surface winds 270-330 at 05 to 10 knots across S NM and VRB AOB 5 knots across W TX. Dry conditions area wide for Saturday, with skies SKC-FEW110 and surface winds 240-270 at 8 to 12 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Fire concerns for the week ahead mostly concerned with very dry and hot conditions developing. Other than isolated thunderstorms persisting this afternoon over the Sacramento Mtns and Hudspeth zone, the rest of the forecast period looks dry and unseasonably hot, with high temps around 5-8 degrees above normal. Fuels will continue to dry out, though no significant non-thunderstorm winds are expected. ERCs are forecast to be at or above 90th percentile by the end of this weekend (a few days later for the Sacramento Mtns). So, fire conditions to remain elevated through the weekend and most of next week.

Min RH: Lowlands...12% west to 23% east today, decreasing to 5-10% all lowlands Saturday through Tuesday. Gila/Black Range...15-25% today, decreasing to 6-13% Saturday through Tuesday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns...25-35% today, decreasing to 8-15% Saturday through Tuesday. Vent rates fair-good east of the Rio Grande Valley today, becoming good-very good Saturday through Tuesday; very good- excellent through Tuesday west of the Rio Grande Valley.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 103 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 66 98 68 100 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 67 100 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 100 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 70 100 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 61 91 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 67 101 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 97 63 99 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 101 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 101 68 104 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 104 73 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 68 95 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 71 104 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 69 100 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 101 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 68 100 63 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 68 103 65 104 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 72 101 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 99 64 101 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 57 89 58 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 88 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 53 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 59 92 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 97 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 100 62 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 92 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 62 94 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 61 97 54 99 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 59 93 49 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 64 94 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 98 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 64 98 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 97 66 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 91 63 94 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.