textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 923 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Another round of thunderstorms spreading in from the west later tonight, with some areas at risk for flooding. - A quiet period looks to arrive in time for Halloween, Saturday.

- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

- Quieter and drier weather looks to prevail after Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 923 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

After a cloudy, dry Friday morning and afternoon, another Pacific shortwave will commence the next round of showers and thunderstorms from the west in the evening. The showers and thunderstorms could produce occasional periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, especially in Luna, Grant, and Hidalgo Counties in New Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms will continue well into the overnight hours until sunrise on All Hallow's Eve.

For what would be a Halloween Area Forecast Discussion, if the forecast was not a trick or a treat? Well, Halloween is expected to be a treat weather-wise, as a tiny shortwave ridge in between these shortwave troughs will bring dry air for prime trick-or- treating hours on Saturday. Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s on Halloween.

As November begins and the clocks turn back an hour, the upper- level trough and cold front will sweep through on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop west of Deming in the afternoon at a quick pace thanks to healthy mid-level winds, speeding through the region late Sunday night and into Monday morning. Showers should move out by midday on Monday, and a drying trend begins through about next Friday. Temperatures early next week will be at or slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 923 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions will start the observation period, albeit with some high clouds overhead. Beginning around sunset, a line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region from the west to the east, persisting through the overnight hours (04-12Z). Gusts up to 25kt are possible with associated thunderstorms, but outside of storms winds will be light and variable. BR may be possible in the early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 923 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rain will enter the region from the west later this evening, bringing the potential for flooding rains, but all the same, it will keep fire weather conditions low. Min RHs today will be no less than 45% for most of the region, and Saturday's min RHs will be quite similar, even with a lull in the rain. Another round of rain will sweep through on Sunday as a second trough moves through. Dry conditions return Monday afternoon. Ventilation rates will improve from Poor today to Very Good on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 59 73 59 79 / 70 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 71 54 77 / 40 10 0 0 Las Cruces 54 70 54 75 / 80 10 0 0 Alamogordo 53 70 53 75 / 80 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 50 40 55 / 80 30 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 72 54 74 / 90 10 0 20 Silver City 48 65 51 67 / 90 20 20 50 Deming 53 72 54 76 / 90 20 0 10 Lordsburg 52 71 55 74 / 80 10 10 40 West El Paso Metro 60 73 61 78 / 70 10 0 0 Dell City 56 72 56 77 / 50 30 0 0 Fort Hancock 60 79 61 86 / 60 10 0 0 Loma Linda 53 67 54 72 / 60 20 0 0 Fabens 59 77 59 83 / 60 20 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 71 57 76 / 70 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 71 57 76 / 80 20 0 0 Jornada Range 54 71 54 75 / 80 30 0 10 Hatch 55 74 55 78 / 80 20 0 10 Columbus 56 74 57 78 / 80 10 0 0 Orogrande 54 70 54 76 / 70 20 0 0 Mayhill 44 63 45 67 / 70 20 0 0 Mescalero 44 60 44 65 / 80 40 0 0 Timberon 42 59 42 63 / 80 30 0 0 Winston 44 65 46 67 / 80 10 10 40 Hillsboro 50 71 53 73 / 90 10 10 30 Spaceport 52 70 53 73 / 90 20 0 10 Lake Roberts 44 65 46 66 / 90 20 30 50 Hurley 48 68 50 70 / 90 20 30 40 Cliff 52 71 55 72 / 90 20 30 70 Mule Creek 48 66 52 66 / 100 10 50 90 Faywood 50 66 52 69 / 90 20 10 30 Animas 53 72 55 75 / 80 10 10 30 Hachita 53 71 54 75 / 80 20 0 20 Antelope Wells 53 72 54 77 / 70 20 0 20 Cloverdale 52 67 53 69 / 80 20 10 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.