textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 828 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Breezy to windy through the day Friday with more fire weather concerns, mainly in the Sacramento Mountains, and limited chances for patchy blowing dust.

- Cool front moves in Saturday with cooler temperatures and gusty east winds.

- Low-end rain chances return late Sunday, with better chances for Monday and Tuesday, with isolated thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 828 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Our slow-approaching upper trough is yet to make it to the Four Corners, and this delay in arrival helped to keep our winds from getting too strong today. Still it was quite breezy, and marginally windy due to low level lee side troughing to our N and E. This helped keep the region from getting too dusty, with just some areawide hazy skies, with the one exception of a source region to the SW of ELP, which steer some vsby reducing dust over SE Dona Ana county into Far West El Paso county late afternoon. As the low slowly approaches overnight tonight, we will see winds aloft strengthen, so high elevations across our N zones will see strong winds continue through the overnight. In fact, we have a Wind Advisory in play tonight for the SACs. The upper trough will track east along the NM/CO line tomorrow, keeping pressure gradients tight, and allowing for a second day of elevated wind speeds. In addition, a Pacific front will push W to E and allow for a cooling of about 10 degrees from Thursday's temps. Otherwise, Friday will be dry and mostly sunny.

Saturday, the trough lifts NE across the Central Rockies, but leaves behind an upper low, which will sag south toward the Baja. Our area will be under a temporary zonal flow aloft, with a cold front pushing in from the N and NE. Yesterday's models indicated pretty strong winds, with a midday passage through ELP. However, today's model solutions show the east winds associated with the front are breezy, but not nearly as strong. The front doesn't look to bring any cooling, and the moisture gains from the Plains is meager at best. Thus, only a wind shift for most, with temps near Friday's, and only the slightest chances for any light isolated shower activity.

Sunday we sit behind the front, and begin to warm a bit, but only a few degrees. The upper low over the Baja, is cut off from good steering flow, so it will park there for the day. This should be a dry day, with lighter winds.

Monday and Tuesday, the low is proged to slowly track east, with a very southerly track, that ultimately passes the low center to our south. Mid day Monday, and beyond, through Tuesday appears to be our best window for showers and some thunderstorms across the region, as the slow moving system passes. Snow level should stay high, with rain below 8500 ft elevation.

The storm system exits to our east on Wednesday, and we go back under a dry west flow pattern, with fair and mild conditions, with day to day warming into the next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 828 PM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period, at all terminals. Winds will be quite variable across the region overnight, with speeds slackening over much of the lowlands, to the 5-10 kt range, but speeds staying up over high terrain, through gaps and passes, and over east slopes due to mountain waves. These areas will remain breezy to windy with gusts. Expect overnight winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30+ mph. Strongest winds will be over the Sacramento mountains. winds will be from the SW to W. LLWS is also likely, with CAT east of area ranges. Tomorrow, mostly sunny skies, more breezy to windy west wind conditions in the 15 to 25+ mph range, and some haze due to patchy blowing dust, but significant vsby reductions are not expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1019 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast this afternoon and Friday across the region as an upper-level trough swings by to the north tonight. Fuels will continue to dry towards the 75th and 90th percentiles over the next couple days, increasing the fire danger threat. ERCs are currently approaching the 90th %-ile in the Sacs, lower elsewhere, which is why RFWs are not in effect outside the Sacs. This afternoon's winds will be from the southwest at 15-25 mph at 20 feet with gusts to 35 mph, somewhat lighter in far west TX. RFTIs are forecast to be mostly in the 3-5 range with pockets of critical fire wx, but generally near- critical. Today and tomorrow would be in the low-end Red Flag category as winds won't be very strong and fuels are not a major problem, yet. A backdoor front arrives on Saturday, shifting winds E-NE with some gustiness and bringing in some moisture. A low near Baja increases the chance of rain and thunderstorms early next week, especially on Monday. Dry lightning and gusty outflows could be threats. Tuesday looks breezy as the low sweeps across. Temperatures return to near normal for Friday, warming back up early next week.

Min RHs range from 8-15% through Friday, rising to 20-35% by Sunday. Ventilation will be mostly excellent through Friday, then good to excellent this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 49 71 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 44 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 39 65 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 42 66 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 29 42 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 32 55 31 62 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 38 67 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 62 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 48 68 46 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 41 70 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 47 76 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 44 62 42 64 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 47 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 43 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 47 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 39 66 34 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 40 68 32 71 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 43 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 42 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 56 29 55 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 34 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 34 51 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 26 57 22 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 37 63 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 35 66 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 55 26 59 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 32 59 29 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 29 62 27 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 29 57 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 35 59 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 37 66 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 37 66 32 67 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 39 68 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 37 61 36 64 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM MST Friday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.