textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns this weekend. - More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return toward the start of July, favoring eastern areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 934 PM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Isolated to scattered showers continue to drift eastward across the region this evening. Gusty outflow winds were observed throughout the area earlier in the evening including gusts to near 52 mph at the office here in Santa Teresa. There is a slight chance (15-20%) of additional convective cells to develop during the mid to late afternoon hours again tomorrow and linger into the early evening mainly along the international border and over the mountainous terrain. However, it will be more spotty than today.

A strong upper level trough is progged to move through the Rockies this weekend, forcing the subtropical high further east along with its moisture. Rain chances will be near zero outside of far west TX this weekend as breezy west to southwesterly winds drop dew points to the 30s. The strongest winds are forecast to the north and west (15-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph) where the pressure gradient is tighter.

The upper level high strengthens over the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week with persistent troughing over the Northwest. This will set up a nice tap of subtropical moisture into our area out of Mexico, likely focusing east of the RGV. Mean PWs are modeled to stay relatively unchanged between this weekend and into midweek, but this would be a favorable synoptic set-up for the monsoon. As of now, there is a low risk of flash flooding for eastern areas later in the period. Mostly dry conditions are forecast west of the RGV through midweek as modestly breezy SW winds persist. Temps continue their slow cool down into next week to slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected with variable skies, bases as low as 120. ISO SHRA/TSRA will be possible again this afternoon with gusty winds the main concern, but probability of occurrence for each TAF sites is 20% or less. Otherwise, winds will be breezy this afternoon into this evening from the WSW (240-270) with speeds up to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 537 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GILA WILDERNESS AND THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS.

An upper level trough will move into the Rockies, increasing winds area wide. The strongest winds will be west of the Rio Grande, topping out near 20 MPH. These winds will combine with min RH values in the mid teens to create near critical conditions. Min RH values have come up a little in the forecast, so it is a marginal red flag. For Sunday, min RH values will be a few points lower with a little stronger winds.

Moisture tries to increase starting Monday, lasting into next week. The forecast has trended significantly drier than 24 hours, though, with lower chances for precip and lower min RH values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 100 76 98 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 95 67 92 / 20 20 30 20 Las Cruces 68 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 69 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 75 54 74 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 69 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 68 100 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 97 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 98 75 97 / 20 0 0 0 Dell City 70 99 70 97 / 10 10 20 10 Fort Hancock 74 101 73 99 / 10 20 30 10 Loma Linda 69 92 69 91 / 10 0 10 0 Fabens 73 100 73 99 / 20 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 97 71 96 / 20 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 101 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 100 73 98 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 87 60 86 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 86 57 85 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 56 84 55 83 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 58 88 58 87 / 20 0 0 0 Hillsboro 66 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 98 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 90 56 88 / 20 0 0 0 Hurley 65 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 63 96 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 62 91 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 66 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 66 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 96 65 94 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 66 94 / 20 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 90 63 88 / 20 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT Sunday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.