textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 947 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

- Historic March heat wave through the weekend. Temperatures will peak Friday through Sunday, with lowland highs in the lower to middle nineties we will likely set daily and even monthly record high temperatures.

- Very dry conditions over the next several days with single digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire concerns for the time being, but some afternoon breeziness is possible Saturday and Sunday across the Gila Region and Black Range.

- A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures on Monday, albeit slightly. Temperatures look to tick upwards again towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 947 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Here comes the upper level ridge. Currently the upper level ridge is centered over southern Arizona. The ridge will drift slowly to the east over the next couple of days and as it moves closer we will see even warmer temperatures. We will see record highs for Friday through Sunday with possible monthly record highs as well. In addition to the heat, we will be very dry, with single digit RH's each afternoon through Sunday. Thankfully the winds will be on the light side of things which will lower fire weather concerns. We could see some low end breezy winds in area mountains Friday and during the weekend, but over all the winds will not be a problem.

On Monday the upper level ridge will weaken, some, and drift back to the west, while at the surface a weak back door (east to west) cold front will move across the region. Sunday's high temperatures will run 20 to 25 degrees above average, but behind the front the temperatures will cool a little, but still run 10 to 15 degrees above average. The winds behind the front will be a little gusty especially along the west slopes of area mountains, but again, I'm not expecting impactful winds.

For Tuesday through through Thursday the upper level ridge will again strengthen and re-center itself across southern New Mexico. The brief cool down on Monday will quickly disappear with more near record and record high temperatures possible for the middle part of the week. The extended models are coming into better agreement with bringing a second (stronger) back door cold front into the region on Friday. But, I still don't think we will get back down to seasonal temperatures anytime soon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 947 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Tonight and Friday we will have unlimited ceilings with record high temperatures expected Friday afternoon. Our surface winds tonight and Friday will be light and variable.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A strong and sprawling upper level ridge will bring hot and dry conditions to the area through the weekend. High temperatures will range from 20 to 25 degrees above normal Friday through Sunday. At the same time, minimum RH values may drop below 5 percent in lowlands, and range from 7 to 10 percent in the higher terrain. winds will be fairly light through the hot and dry period, mitigating fire weather concerns. Some weak lee troughing in the Middle Rio Grande Valley may produce some gusts around 20 mph Saturday and Sunday afternoon over the Gila Region and the Black Range.

But, we'll reiterate that this stretch of hot and dry weather will allow fuels to dry rapidly, leading to higher wildfire risk for any future windy days in the days and weeks ahead.

A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures slightly on Monday. The risk of stronger east winds will be offset by the continued lee troughing that shifts north towards central New Mexico, reducing the pressure gradient in the SW portion of the state. We still need to keep an eye on Wednesday as a weak shortwave trough passes through Colorado. It's trended a little weaker, but there's still a lot of uncertainty with the details. Temperatures also look to return to the 90s across the lowlands, and we may well see 5% RH values again as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 95 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 91 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 51 92 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 50 92 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 72 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 53 92 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 88 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 95 51 97 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 93 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 94 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 47 95 50 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 98 55 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 87 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 96 55 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 92 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 47 93 49 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 47 96 50 98 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 54 95 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 51 92 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 85 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 47 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 51 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 86 46 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 91 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 45 92 48 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 89 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 90 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 95 50 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 91 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 94 55 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 92 53 96 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 53 93 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 60 90 61 90 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.