textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 259 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- A passing disturbance will allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday. Thunderstorms will mainly be east of El Paso.

- Drier and warmer for Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will warm back above normal beginning Wednesday.

- Moisture will sneak back in from the east Thursday night into Friday. An upper level disturbance may trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and Friday night, mainly near and east of the Rio Grande.

- The pattern looks to finally shift towards the usual Spring Special, with dry and increasingly windy conditions likely Sunday and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Shortwave trough moving across central New Mexico this midday, with bands of showers moving across Otero and northern Hudspeth County. Another batch of showers just south of the Black Range is most likely associated with the main trough axis.

The earlier showers have also pushed an outflow boundary southward, which currently runs from near Tornillo east across central Hudspeth County. SPC mesoanalysis shows some instability increasing to the south of this boundary, where surface dewpoints remain in the 50s at Sierra Blanca (West Texas Mesonet). Starting to see cu building up along the Sierra La Amargosa across the border as well. 12Z NAM-Nest and now the 17Z HRRR suggest isolated deeper convection may pop up in southern Hudspeth before heading east between now and about 4 PM.

Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, but small hail can't be ruled out.

Otherwise...expect the showers south of the Black Range to expand in coverage this afternoon as they spread SE towards Las Cruces. CAMS suggest they'll try to hold together somewhat as they approach El Paso this evening, but they'll be outrunning the better upper level forcing, so the chances of anything measurable are low.

Warmer temps and drier conditions will prevail Wed/Thu, though a few models are trying to squeeze out a shower north and east of the Black Range Thursday afternoon.

Deeper convection late Thursday over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend region will push outflow and attendant low level moisture a little west of the Rio Grande by Friday morning. Meanwhile a deeper trough will slowly carve out off the California coast. A lead shortwave trough embedded in southwest flow aloft will trigger scattered convection, particularly along and east of whereever the low level moisture boundary sets up. Showers could linger into the night across eastern areas as broader-scale diffluent flow develops ahead of a jet streak nosing in from south of the border.

Breezy to windy southwesterlies also look to develop on Saturday as the moisture pushes east, and the main trough over California ejects out towards the Four Corners. The main longwave looks to persist, however, as another shortwave trough drops into southern California. After our rain chances Friday into early Saturday, we might be about to finally see our spring winds arrive.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Light and variable winds through the period. A shortwave trough will move across central NM through today, with scattered showers redeveloping north of DMN expected to track ESE towards LRU and ELP over the coming hours. DMN may get grazed by showers through 21Z, then LRU is most likely to see showers between 21-23Z. The showers will try to hold together as they approach ELP after 23Z, but most likely will not make it.

Either way, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with brief ceilings approaching 4000 feet within shower activity. Chances for deeper convection this afternoon will be east of ELP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 PM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Isolated thunderstorms still possible in the Sacramentos through this evening. Warmer and drier Wednesday and Thursday, with above normal temperatures, but light winds. Moisture push from the east Thursday night will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms Friday, mainly east of the Divide, with showers diminishing early Saturday. A more sustained dry and windy pattern looks to arrive Sunday and early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 52 84 58 87 / 10 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 45 78 55 80 / 10 10 0 30 Las Cruces 47 80 52 83 / 10 0 0 10 Alamogordo 47 79 51 85 / 20 10 0 20 Cloudcroft 36 57 42 60 / 20 10 0 30 Truth or Consequences 51 80 55 83 / 10 10 0 20 Silver City 46 74 49 77 / 10 10 0 10 Deming 47 83 52 86 / 10 0 0 10 Lordsburg 46 81 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 53 81 58 86 / 10 0 0 10 Dell City 42 80 47 84 / 20 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 47 86 54 89 / 10 10 0 20 Loma Linda 45 75 48 79 / 10 0 0 10 Fabens 50 84 56 88 / 10 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 50 80 55 85 / 10 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 52 81 58 85 / 10 0 0 10 Jornada Range 43 80 46 84 / 10 0 0 10 Hatch 46 83 48 87 / 10 10 0 10 Columbus 50 83 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 45 79 48 83 / 10 0 0 10 Mayhill 37 70 41 73 / 20 10 0 30 Mescalero 38 68 41 72 / 20 10 0 30 Timberon 37 66 39 70 / 20 10 0 30 Winston 39 74 43 75 / 10 10 0 20 Hillsboro 49 78 53 81 / 10 10 0 10 Spaceport 43 79 47 83 / 10 10 0 10 Lake Roberts 35 75 35 77 / 10 10 0 10 Hurley 43 78 46 80 / 10 10 0 10 Cliff 41 81 42 84 / 10 0 0 10 Mule Creek 39 78 38 80 / 10 0 0 10 Faywood 46 76 49 80 / 10 10 0 10 Animas 47 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 81 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 81 51 84 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 49 77 50 79 / 0 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.