textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 348 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Scattered lowland rain and mountain snow showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Light snow accumulations for elevations above 7,000 feet.

- Another round of snow is expected Thursday night and Friday morning for mainly the Gila above 5,500 feet.

- Colder temperatures Friday through this weekend with morning lows in the lower to mid twenties across much of southwest New Mexico and far west Texas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 955 AM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT... The region finds itself beneath a s/w ridge ahead of a closed low off the CA coast. Plenty of high level moisture is moving northeast on SW flow aloft, so expect increasing cloud coverage today and tonight. Temperatures will be mild for this time of year both in terms of a high this afternoon and low tonight. Winds will be very light.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... The aforementioned upper level low will progress rapidly eastward today into tomorrow across Baja California and Sonora, pushing the exit region of its jet to the AZ-NM border by 21z Wednesday. By 6z Thursday, the system will be centered over Central NM as it rapidly absorbs into the main flow, opening into a wave as it does so. A small dry slot will begin entering southern NM by this point, with most precip over by 12z Thursday as the system continues to lift out and dry air overtakes the CWA. For this first system, snow levels will generally be over 7000' with 1-3" (25th to 75th percentile) of snow expected for both the Sacs and the Gila though higher peaks of the Gila may see as high as 6" (75th percentile). This is just below advisory criteria for both areas.

For the rest of Thursday, flurries or a few snow showers look ongoing for the Gila while winds pick up area wide. Temperatures will also be cooler, especially west of the Rio Grande. For most locations, wind gusts of 30-40 MPH will be pretty common, but wind gusts of 50 MPH or higher look like a pretty good bet across the Sacramento Mountains (70%+ chance), so a wind advisory will likely be needed in later forecast updates.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... The gusty winds for Thursday are partially attributed to a impinging jet ahead of another s/w that will keep winds up for mountains and east slope areas overnight Thursday but will also bring another shot of precipitation to mainly the Gila with light rain for lowlands, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Snow accumulations look higher with this second round as snow levels crash to around 6000' or lower. Another 1-4" looks can be expected for the Gila with another inch or so for the Sacramento Mountains (25th-75th percentile). With the lower snow levels, Silver City proper looks to see 1-2". I will hold off any products for now, but later shifts may need to issue advisories for the Gila. Except maybe some flurries, precip is expected to end sometime Friday morning.

Temperatures for Friday will be even cooler, dropping below average. Add the wind and it will feel even colder.

SATURDAY ONWARD... The longwave trough will stick around, which will keep temperatures on the cool to cold side for the weekend and Monday, but winds will greatly decrease. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny. The GFS and ECMWF both show a cut-off low forming to our south. Depending on how this low evolves, cloud coverage may be on the increase for Monday with subsequent rain chances past the forecast period, but confidence is low and thus so are probabilities.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 440 PM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR for most of the period...with SCT150 BKN-OVC250. Spreading from west to east after 18Z...SCT060 BKN120 OVC200 with isolated BKN050 -SHRA. Showers making it to around the Rio Grande Valley by the end of the period. Surface winds southwest 7-10 knots, becoming variable AOB 7 knots after 03Z. Winds increasing again after 18Z to southwest/west 10-15G20 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 955 AM MST Tue Jan 6 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are expected through the period. East slope areas of the Sacramento Mountains will be see minimum RH values in the teens again this afternoon, but winds will be light. Beginning tomorrow, moisture will be on the increase while temperatures decrease. Widespread precipitation is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Winds will increase with the approach of the system, lasting through Friday. Venting will be poor to fair this afternoon, increasing to fair to good on Wednesday, and good to very good on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 45 65 43 61 / 0 60 80 10 Sierra Blanca 44 68 39 56 / 0 40 90 10 Las Cruces 39 60 37 55 / 0 70 80 10 Alamogordo 38 63 35 56 / 0 60 90 20 Cloudcroft 33 44 24 33 / 0 60 90 20 Truth or Consequences 38 57 36 56 / 0 60 70 20 Silver City 37 53 34 45 / 0 80 80 40 Deming 39 60 39 56 / 0 90 80 20 Lordsburg 38 57 36 52 / 0 90 80 30 West El Paso Metro 47 64 43 59 / 0 60 80 10 Dell City 36 69 39 59 / 0 20 80 10 Fort Hancock 43 72 40 63 / 0 50 90 10 Loma Linda 43 60 38 52 / 0 50 90 10 Fabens 42 67 40 62 / 0 60 80 10 Santa Teresa 42 62 39 58 / 0 70 80 10 White Sands HQ 46 65 42 58 / 0 70 90 10 Jornada Range 38 62 35 56 / 0 70 80 10 Hatch 37 64 36 59 / 0 70 80 10 Columbus 42 62 41 59 / 0 80 80 10 Orogrande 41 63 37 56 / 0 60 90 10 Mayhill 36 59 30 48 / 0 40 80 20 Mescalero 32 55 26 45 / 0 60 90 20 Timberon 33 53 25 43 / 0 50 90 20 Winston 30 54 26 47 / 0 70 70 30 Hillsboro 38 60 34 54 / 0 80 80 20 Spaceport 36 60 30 56 / 0 70 80 20 Lake Roberts 32 53 30 44 / 0 80 80 50 Hurley 36 54 34 49 / 0 80 80 30 Cliff 33 57 34 51 / 0 80 80 60 Mule Creek 33 54 32 46 / 0 80 80 70 Faywood 39 56 36 49 / 0 80 80 30 Animas 41 60 37 55 / 0 90 80 20 Hachita 39 59 36 54 / 0 90 80 20 Antelope Wells 40 60 36 55 / 0 90 80 10 Cloverdale 41 52 37 49 / 0 90 80 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.