textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

- Breezy southwest winds Monday and Tuesday. Scattered rain showers across western New Mexico on Tuesday.

- Warmer and drier weather late this week. Temperatures near normal for early May. - A isolated showers and thunderstorms return going into Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

Fairly active and somewhat unusual early May weather pattern for the Borderland this week. A persistent upper low will be sitting over the SW US and Northern Baja region through the week before exiting late next weekend. This will bring occasional breezy days as well as some light rain chances from time to time, but not as widespread as Fri/Sat. Models actually in pretty good agreement with the main synoptic features developing, but differ slightly on timing and intensity.

The main upper low that everything develops off of is currently moving towards the Central CA coast and west-southwest flow aloft will be tapping some high level moisture and keep at least a partly cloudy sky going through Tuesday morning. Winds will be shifting around to the west and start to pick up Monday and continue through Tuesday before settling down midweek. As the upper low moves into Western AZ, there will be a quick surge of low level moisture and bring some scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm to areas west of the RGV and into the Sacs. Not looking like more than maybe a quarter inch in the mountains and the lowlands will get less than a tenth of an inch. Winds will be breezy Monday and becoming low end windy Tuesday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday and a slight cool down for Tuesday by about 5 degrees, moreso out west where better rain chances will be. Overnight lows will be fairly mild with cloud cover limiting the diurnal cooling.

A secondary low will develop from the initial one over NW Mexico midweek and slowly move eastward going into the end of the week and weekend. This is the main model difference with the GFS and it's ensembles being quicker and bring precip chances late Thu into Fri while the EC and it's ensembles are generally slower and have less precip and more Fri/Sat. NBM going with just some very low end PoPs mentioned Fri, but with these slow moving lows, would not be surprised to see a slow down and a longer period of light rain chances. As the low exits late next weekend, temps are looking to rebound back towards 90 degrees for at least the lowest elevations.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

P6SM FEW-SCT120-150 SCT-BKN200-250 through much of the period with some clearing around during the overnight hours. A few very isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm possible between 21Z-02Z with better chances closer to KTCS but could be as far south as KDMN. The main threat with these would be some wind gusts over 30KTS. Winds will start out S to SE AOB 12KTS then shift to the W or SW after 00Z and start to pick up to 5-15KTS with the strongest winds over eastern mountain slopes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Sun May 3 2026

No significant fire concerns this week, although there will be some breezy to windy conditions Mon/Tue which will be accompanied by RH's mainly remaining above 15%. Some light rain showers are expected over areas west of the Rio Grande and the Sacs on Tue which will also be the windiest day. Going into later in the week, winds will be under 15 mph with temperatures near normal but RH's will be down into the teens. The next chance for precipitation will come towards the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 61 85 63 82 / 10 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 55 80 58 78 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 81 54 77 / 10 0 0 10 Alamogordo 54 79 56 76 / 10 0 10 20 Cloudcroft 42 57 41 53 / 10 0 10 20 Truth or Consequences 54 80 56 76 / 10 10 10 30 Silver City 49 72 46 67 / 10 10 20 40 Deming 52 83 54 78 / 10 0 10 20 Lordsburg 51 80 53 75 / 10 0 20 20 West El Paso Metro 60 84 61 80 / 10 0 0 10 Dell City 52 84 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 88 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 77 57 74 / 10 0 0 10 Fabens 59 86 61 84 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 56 82 58 79 / 10 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 59 81 63 79 / 10 0 10 10 Jornada Range 49 80 54 77 / 10 0 10 20 Hatch 54 83 55 80 / 10 0 0 20 Columbus 57 85 58 81 / 10 0 0 10 Orogrande 54 79 58 76 / 10 0 0 10 Mayhill 46 71 49 66 / 10 0 10 20 Mescalero 44 68 44 64 / 10 0 10 30 Timberon 39 66 45 62 / 10 0 10 20 Winston 42 71 42 68 / 10 10 20 40 Hillsboro 55 78 52 74 / 10 10 10 30 Spaceport 50 80 51 76 / 10 10 10 20 Lake Roberts 38 72 42 66 / 10 10 20 40 Hurley 48 76 46 71 / 10 0 20 30 Cliff 42 78 46 71 / 10 10 20 40 Mule Creek 39 74 44 69 / 10 10 30 40 Faywood 50 76 49 71 / 10 0 20 30 Animas 52 81 52 77 / 0 0 10 20 Hachita 52 81 51 77 / 10 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 53 81 52 77 / 0 0 10 20 Cloverdale 51 75 52 71 / 0 0 10 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.