textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1150 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Heat Advisory in effect for Rio Grande Valley of Texas, Dona Ana County, NM, Luna County, NM, and parts of the Tularosa Basin and White Sands Missile Range until 9 PM MDT.

- Record high temperatures for the Borderland today and near- record through the rest of the week, with lowland temperatures reaching 105 in several places today.

- Isolated rain showers and storms in the mountains today and tomorrow, especially in the Sacramento Mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The upper-level high remains in place over southern New Mexico and that will bring record high temperatures for much of the lowlands for late August. Several lowland locations will see temperatures above the triple digit mark, as indicated by the Heat Advisory in effect for the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, Dona Ana County, NM, Luna County, NM, parts of the Tularosa Basin and White Sands Missile Range until 9 PM. There will be enough orographic lift for a couple thunderstorms in the mountains this afternoon, especially in the Sacramento Mountains, but any measurable precipitation will be low.

For Wednesday, the high will drift slightly to the west, but it will continue to provide the region with another day of near-record high temperatures. Conditions for the lowlands should be dry, but the 12Z HRRR run is increasing precipitation coverage to the lowlands Wednesday night. I am a little skeptical that rain will reach that far south into the lowlands Wednesday night, but on Thursday, both the GFS and the ECMWF have precipitable water values for the lowlands around 1-1.2", giving the lowlands a slight (20-30%) chance for precipitation on Thursday afternoon/evening. The upper-level high should tamp measurable precipitation down, though. Friday's PWAT values are about the same, though I also expect the upper-level high to suppress rain amounts for the lowlands as well on Friday.

For the weekend, the high pressure system is expected to weaken and shift eastward. This will cool temperatures down a notch (but still above average), and better conditions for isolated (20-40%) thunderstorm development will be present on Saturday and Sunday for the region. As August transitions to September, both extended models still indicate we will have some monsoonal flow enter the region, which should increase our rain chances for early next week. We will continue to monitor what the extended GFS and ECMWF runs indicate.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period, with skies ranging from SKC-FEW120/250. Winds will prevail generally from the south- southeast and some wind gusts up to 20 kt may be felt at the four TAF sites, but overall, conditions should be clear. No thunder mentioned in this forecast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

More record high heat is in store this afternoon and evening, with min RH values in the low to mid teens, followed by poor recovery levels overnight (20-30%). The Sacramento Mountains will be the exception, as recovery RHs will be near 100% thanks to afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The Gila National Forest will be drier today and tomorrow, and recovery RHs will only rise to 50-60%. Barring afternoon thunderstorm outflows, winds will be light, and ventilation rates should be very good. Wednesday will be very similar to Tuesday, though a slight degree or two cooler. Better lowland moisture will return on Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 68 100 69 97 / 0 0 10 20 Las Cruces 72 102 72 101 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 73 101 71 99 / 0 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 53 77 50 75 / 10 30 30 60 Truth or Consequences 74 101 73 99 / 0 10 10 20 Silver City 68 96 68 94 / 10 10 10 30 Deming 71 103 72 102 / 0 10 10 0 Lordsburg 72 103 73 101 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 78 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 102 70 99 / 0 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 74 107 75 105 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 70 96 70 94 / 0 10 10 30 Fabens 73 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 73 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 103 77 101 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 73 102 72 100 / 0 10 10 10 Hatch 73 105 73 104 / 0 10 10 10 Columbus 73 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 71 100 70 98 / 0 10 10 10 Mayhill 61 89 58 87 / 10 50 20 70 Mescalero 56 89 55 86 / 10 30 20 50 Timberon 58 87 56 84 / 10 20 20 60 Winston 64 92 62 90 / 10 10 10 60 Hillsboro 72 100 71 99 / 0 10 10 40 Spaceport 71 101 70 100 / 0 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 61 93 61 92 / 10 10 10 50 Hurley 68 99 69 97 / 10 10 10 10 Cliff 69 103 70 102 / 10 10 10 20 Mule Creek 67 99 67 98 / 10 10 10 10 Faywood 70 97 71 96 / 0 10 10 20 Animas 72 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 71 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 101 70 101 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 67 97 68 96 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana County-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.