textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

- Dry conditions this week with high pressure fixed along the Pacific coast. Temperatures near normal for mid-January with lowland highs in the lower sixties.

- Weak cold front arrives on Wednesday, shifting winds to the east with minimal changes to temperature.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

Weak upper low currently centered over Big Bend tonight with lingering light rain showers in southern Hudspeth County. Precipitation chances will end shortly, but cloud coverage will hang around through the overnight hours across far west Texas. Southern New Mexico will be mostly clear tonight, with very light winds.

Rex blocking pattern with high pressure aloft fixed along the Pacific coast will drive the weather pattern over the next 7 days. High confidence in the El Paso area staying dry this week with no available moisture source and minimal forcing. Tuesday will feature a modest warmup, pushing lowland highs into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Climatologically, this is right near normal for mid-January.

Very N/S meridional flow over the Great Plains this week ahead of the blocking high. 1032mb surface high will bring a cold front down the Plains on Tuesday, reaching the El Paso area early Wednesday morning. Gusty east winds up to 30 mph Wednesday afternoon behind the front, however minimal changes to temperatures are expected.

Rest of the week looks dry with seasonal temperatures. No major differences in temperatures day-to-day, mostly with lowland highs in the lower 60s. GFS shows a second cold front spilling down the High Plains on Friday, but isn't strong enough to reach this far west. Even if it does, it's also looks weak and benign. Not expecting any impactful weather until at least next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

VMC through forecast period under northeast flow aloft. Surface winds 330-040 AOB 5 knots overnight, then 230-270 at 03-06 knots tomorrow afternoon. BKN-OVC170 across W TX overnight, SKC across S NM. Skies becoming clear area wide after 18Z Tuesday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

We are moving into a quieter weather pattern. Temperatures will be a little above normal and no strong wind events are expected through this coming weekend. We will be dry with only a slight chance for rain today in southern Hudspeth County, but then dry through Sunday. We will be dry min RH's wise, but not too dry. Each day through the weekend looks to have min RH's near 20% in the lowlands and in the 30's in area mountains. Ventilation rates on Tuesday will be poor to fair and then improve a little on Wednesday with fair to good vent rates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 32 61 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 32 56 32 58 / 30 0 0 0 Las Cruces 27 58 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 25 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 45 25 41 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 29 60 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 28 58 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 26 61 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 24 58 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 34 59 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 24 61 24 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 34 61 30 65 / 20 0 0 0 Loma Linda 31 53 34 56 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 31 60 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 28 58 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 33 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 22 59 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 24 63 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 28 59 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 27 57 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 25 58 29 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 24 56 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 22 53 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 22 58 25 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 30 61 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 24 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 23 58 27 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 24 59 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 23 62 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 25 60 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 29 58 33 58 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 25 59 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 24 58 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 26 58 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 32 56 36 56 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.