textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1006 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

- Dry conditions lasting into the end of the weekend. - Temperatures seasonable Wednesday/Thursday, as a cool front with east breezes moves in Wednesday.

- Temperatures warming to well above normal Friday through the weekend.

- Lowland rain and mountain snow chances (20-30%) return to the forecast for late Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

WV imagery showing central U.S. extremely positively tilted upper trough extending back across southern New Mexico and Arizona in a well defined deformation zone. The increasing north flow at the zone and behind it have flushed higher level moisture/clouds mostly south of the area currently. To the west, the Rex-block ridge continues to strengthen. The anchor upper low resides just off the SoCal coast, while the mid-level low is west of the Baja spur. This low continues to feed sub-tropical moisture up to the deformation zone, but high clouds will remain south of the CWA Wednesday.

The increasing north flow tonight and Wednesday east of the upper ridge, along with shortwave activity over the central/southern plains, will allow a back door cool front to drop over the area by early Wednesday morning into the afternoon. This front will bring east breezes to much of the southern CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts to 30 mph are possible along west slopes of terrain during this period, and GFS shows even stronger winds/gusts (possibly 40 mph) advancing out to Hidalgo County late Wed afternoon and evening. Will have to watch the usual playa dust area for blowing dust, and went ahead and put some blowing dust in the grids. Temperatures will cool back to near normal. Rex-block ridge begins breaking down Thursday as next strong Pacific trough moves into the NE Pacific. This action will force the anchor low up into SoCal Thursday evening and Friday. Thus our mid/upper level flow turns southwest and advects high level moisture into the area Thursday night and Friday. Expect just some higher clouds with this (but also may a brief sprinkle Friday morning?). Temperatures will warm back to well above normal Friday into the weekend.

Only other feature to watch is the system moving in later Sunday into Monday. GFS and ECMWF still showing obvious different solutions. The ECMWF shows a fairly progressive upper low across the northern Baja and Mexico to near the Big Bend by later Monday. This would suggest a slight chance of showers Sun afternoon into mid-day Monday. GFS shows much stronger digging of low and thus slower speed and significant moisture tap. GFS establishes the strong sub-tropical jet over the area Sunday and Monday, with record level PWs. Thus the GFS would suggest widespread showers Sunday night and Monday, with moderate accumulations similar to our last event of a few weeks ago. Any snowfall would be limited to the highest peaks of the mountains. For now will tow closer to the ECMWF solution for messaging purposes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1006 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR expected through the period, with SCT250 becoming SKC by later this afternoon. Surface winds variable AOB 8 knots this afternoon. Cool front dropping south and west over the area late tonight and Wednesday morning will turn winds north and east. Expect winds of east/northeast 10-15G25 knots by end of the period (Wed 18Z), and a bit stronger beyond the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1006 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

Fire zones should remain dry through Sunday, with a slight chance of showers Sunday night into Monday. Cool front moving in Wednesday morning will usher in breezy east winds with gusts of 25-35 mph through the afternoon. Temperatures cooling to seasonable levels Wednesday and Thursday. Winds turning back to south/southwest Friday into the weekend, warming temperatures back to well above normal. Southerly flow brings in more moisture Sunday night and Monday, for a chance of showers and high elevation snow.

Min RH: Lowlands 20-30% through Saturday. Mountains 15-25% Gila/Black Range through Saturday; 25-35% Sacramento Mtns through Saturday. Vent rates fair-good Wednesday, then poor-fair Thursday through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 39 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 35 59 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 31 60 28 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 42 20 45 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 37 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 59 30 56 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 36 62 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 32 62 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 41 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 31 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 36 63 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 38 53 31 55 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 37 62 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 59 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 60 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 29 61 24 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 32 63 27 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 38 62 34 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 29 59 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 26 50 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 52 23 56 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 29 49 25 51 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 25 55 22 55 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 35 59 31 58 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 28 61 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 60 23 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 32 59 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 24 67 24 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 20 64 20 61 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 38 58 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 35 62 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 35 61 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 40 57 36 56 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.