textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will arrive in two batches today, starting with the afternoon, and then sweeping west to east overnight. Additional storms will work into SW New Mexico on Friday afternoon, weakening as they drift east Friday night. Localized flash flooding will be possible.

- A quiet period looks to arrive in time for Halloween, Saturday.

- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday and into Monday.

- Quieter and drier weather looks to prevail next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM MDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Southwest flow aloft is increasing as upper low nears the California coast...and several short waves out ahead of the low near Baja rotate east toward New Mexico. This flow will bring up existing sub-tropical moisture over northern Mexico, including some moisture from TS Vance, across the CWA Thursday. PWs approach one inch from the RG Valley east. Batted around a flood watch but decided not to issue one. The moisture, decent instability and slow storm movement could still create a few flooding storms.

One of the short waves rotating out of the California trough reaches New Mexico late FRIDAY afternoon and into the evening to spread another round of showers/storms to the area. PWs almost as high as Thursday's event, with sub-tropical jet approaching and drawing in moisture from the eastern Pacific. Shear environment looks better than Thursday, and along with modest CAPE values may be more conducive to some strong/severe storms. The negative is that the storms are not likely to start until late in the day.

SATURDAY (Halloween) looks to be a tweener day as the short wave exits the area and we await the the west coast upper low. Both GFS/ECMWF dampen the low as it approaches, but phasing it in with the Pac NW over the Great Basin SUNDAY. This looks to be a fast moving feature, though ECMWF somewhat slower. GFS moves it out by late Sunday night while the ECMWF lets it hang around until Monday afternoon. Showers/storms should start out west Sunday afternoon and spread east through the evening hours. Once again PWs approach or slightly exceed one inch, suggesting some flood potential. However mid-level storm motion winds of 30-50 mph may not allow for prolonged rain over any specific area.

Main Pacific cold front moves through late Sunday night with secondary colder front dropping out of the Great Basin to the CWA Monday night. High temps by Tuesday may remain in the 60s across the lowlands.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions prevailing, but afternoon thunderstorms will develop around desert mountain ranges this afternoon, with another round sweeping through later tonight. Ceilings could drop to around 5000-6000 feet in thunderstorms, with brief IFR visibility.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 644 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low fire weather concerns will continue through the next several days as an unsettled weather pattern brings more rain chances to the region. Temperatures will run near normal through the weekend, while minimum RH values will be quite elevated -- dropping only into the 35 to 45 percent range in the lowlands, and higher values in the the mountains. Lighter low level winds will cause vent rates to suffer in parts of the Tularosa Basin today, and over the entire area on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 73 58 75 / 70 10 50 10 Sierra Blanca 52 70 52 74 / 70 20 20 10 Las Cruces 54 72 53 72 / 70 0 60 10 Alamogordo 52 71 52 72 / 70 20 60 30 Cloudcroft 39 54 40 52 / 80 30 70 40 Truth or Consequences 53 72 52 72 / 70 10 60 10 Silver City 48 68 48 67 / 40 30 80 20 Deming 53 74 52 74 / 60 10 70 10 Lordsburg 52 74 52 73 / 30 20 70 10 West El Paso Metro 60 73 60 74 / 70 0 50 10 Dell City 55 73 55 75 / 70 10 30 10 Fort Hancock 59 78 59 81 / 60 20 30 10 Loma Linda 52 66 53 69 / 60 10 50 10 Fabens 58 76 58 78 / 60 10 30 10 Santa Teresa 56 72 56 73 / 60 0 50 10 White Sands HQ 57 73 57 74 / 70 10 60 10 Jornada Range 54 72 54 73 / 70 10 60 10 Hatch 55 76 54 76 / 70 10 60 10 Columbus 56 75 56 76 / 60 10 60 10 Orogrande 53 71 53 72 / 70 10 60 20 Mayhill 45 64 45 65 / 80 50 50 30 Mescalero 44 64 45 63 / 70 30 70 40 Timberon 42 62 42 61 / 70 30 60 40 Winston 44 67 44 65 / 60 20 70 10 Hillsboro 52 72 51 72 / 70 10 60 10 Spaceport 53 72 52 72 / 70 10 60 10 Lake Roberts 41 69 41 66 / 40 30 80 20 Hurley 48 70 47 70 / 50 20 70 10 Cliff 44 75 45 73 / 20 40 80 20 Mule Creek 41 69 41 68 / 10 40 80 20 Faywood 50 69 50 68 / 60 10 70 10 Animas 53 75 53 74 / 30 20 60 10 Hachita 52 74 52 74 / 40 10 70 0 Antelope Wells 53 75 53 75 / 30 20 50 0 Cloverdale 50 69 51 69 / 20 30 70 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.