textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1033 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Mostly dry, breezy, with seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cold blast of air with windy to very windy conditions looks increasingly likely late Thursday and early Friday morning. Well below normal temperatures for Friday and the weekend.

- In addition to the winds on Friday we will see a chance for lowland rain showers and high elevation rain/snow mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

We will have a nice couple of days, but it is looking more and more likely that we will see a big changes to our weather by the end of the week. Currently our region remains sandwiched between an upper level trough over the Great Basin and an upper level ridge over the Gulf coast. Many times a pattern like this would draw up moisture, but for this time we are moving in drier air. Some of the moisture associated with what is left of Hurricane Simon, will be drawn up to our east (though just to our east). Most of the area will stay dry on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the one exception being Hudspeth county which will have a slight chance for rain both afternoons, as it is closer to some of that tropical moisture. Temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday will run a few degrees above average east of the Rio Grande and a few degrees below averages west of river.

On Thursday our weather starts to change. The upper level trough that was to our northwest, will push east, but a chunk of energy will carve and form a new upper level trough which will retrograde back to our southwest. At the surface a strong back door cold front will approach the region from the east. This cold front will bring strong surface winds and dramatically colder air. High temperature on Thursday will be similar to Tuesday and Wednesday, but high temperatures on Friday will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler. As the cold front pushes west Thursday night we will see a band of strong winds push across the area. Wind gusts in excess to 50 mph will be possible, especially for locations just to the west of area mountains. The strong gusty winds will slowly come down on Friday, but most of Friday will be cool with those brisk east winds. The upper level trough to our southwest will try and lift some of the moisture up over the cold front which will give lots of clouds and could give us a some precipitation both Friday and Saturday. The extended deterministic GFS keeps most of the rain just south of the area, but the extended deterministic EC brings a good area of rain and maybe a mix of rain and snow (yes I said snow) to the highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains. If the EC model is right, Friday will be a wet, cold and dreary day, if the GFS is correct is will be cool and brisk. Either way it will certainly finally feel like Fall.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Tonight we will have unlimited ceilings. On Tuesday we will see low to mid clouds both west in Arizona and east in central Texas, but for us, our skies will stay mostly clear. For winds, just like today, will be generally light tonight, but we will see the return of low end wind gusts Tuesday afternoon. Those wind gusts will last till around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 PM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RHs stay above critical thresholds each afternoon. Mostly dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with the exception of southern Hudspeth both afternoons. A strong backdoor cold front is expected to push in from the Great Plains late Thursday and early Friday morning which will bring much cooler temperatures, rain showers, and windy easterly conditions. Strongest winds will be for locations along the Int'l Border and especially windy for west facing slopes. Expecting chances for rain across the area Thursday into Friday with the cold front.

Min RHs in the lowlands will be 20-30% and 40-50% in the area mountains Tuesday through Thursday. 20 foot winds will be slightly breezy Tuesday and Wednesday with speeds anywhere from 5-15 mph sustained. 20 ft winds Thursday will be out of the north during the afternoon with some breeziness but after sunset that night, expect very windy conditions (20 ft winds 15-30 mph sustained). Breezy conditions continue into Friday afternoon with speeds 20-30 mph. Lingering breeziness early Saturday mostly for locations close by the AZ border but then winds relax in the afternoon continuing into Sunday.

Temperatures stay near normal to slightly above average Tuesday and Wednesday but dips to 10-15 degrees below average Friday and Saturday post-cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 83 60 82 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 83 59 80 / 20 0 10 0 Las Cruces 56 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 80 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 58 43 56 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 70 47 67 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 55 80 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 77 52 73 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 64 82 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 86 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 90 64 88 / 10 0 10 0 Loma Linda 58 76 57 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 79 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 82 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 83 57 81 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 80 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 72 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 69 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 67 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 78 52 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 68 42 66 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 50 74 48 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 54 75 51 73 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 50 70 48 68 / 10 10 10 0 Faywood 52 73 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 79 53 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 79 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 81 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 73 50 72 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.