textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1033 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

- Dry, southwest winds continue each afternoon through the work week. Near normal temperatures for mid May.

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, focused mostly over the high terrain.

..MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

The overall flow aloft this weekend will become weak as the aforementioned cutoff low quickly translates east and upper level ridging develops in it's wake. This will ultimately result in fair weather conditions on Saturday and Sunday with light winds and near seasonal temperatures. For Monday, Memorial Day, the slightest bit of moisture will work it's way into the area with meager but sufficient moisture profiles. As of now, NBM guidance and it's respected global models paint slight chances of rain across portions of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Being 5-6 days out, confidence remains LOW, but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM MDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SCT-BKN at 25 kft. Winds light at 3-8 knots and VRB through the morning hours. By 18Z, winds will become south/southwest at 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20-25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue May 19 2026

Near Critical fire weather conditions for Southwest New Mexico again on Wednesday with continued southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and Min RH 8 to 12%. Winds are forecast to remain below Red Flag criteria. Skies will be partly cloudy area wide with passing high clouds. Typical mid May temperatures. Similar weather on Thursday, though we may see some afternoon low level cumulus growth over the high terrain.

Minimal changes to temperatures later in the week, along with light southwest flow remaining in place across southern New Mexico. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, primarily over Lincoln National Forest. This could lead to erratic afternoon wind gusts Saturday/Sunday there.

Current fuel status shows ERCs rising past the 90th percentile this week, due in part to sustained dry, breezy weather. Forest conditions are increasingly susceptible to fire starts. There is some concern in new lightning starts over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 86 56 83 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 54 87 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 87 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 65 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 86 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 79 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 88 56 88 / 0 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 61 93 62 91 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 58 82 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 60 92 61 89 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 57 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 64 88 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 87 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 89 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 61 88 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 86 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 77 48 76 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 45 73 44 72 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 47 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 55 84 56 83 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 86 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 48 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 82 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 52 82 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 85 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.