textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1011 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

- Thunderstorm coverage will increase some on Monday, with a more pronounced uptick beginning Tuesday. - Deeper moisture will move in during the last half of next week. Each day will bring the risk of slow-moving thunderstorms, with localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1011 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Mid-level high now over east Texas, with upper-level high gradually drifting east to join. Monday begins a 2-3 day ramp up in thunderstorm coverage as upper high continues to drift east as far as the southern Appalachians by Tuesday. Models still showing ridging back west over the CWA for Monday and Tuesday, perhaps concentrating best moisture/chance of rain over the western half of the CWA.

Wednesday into the weekend...upper high begins drifting back west becoming more concentric, allowing better southerly flow aloft to spread across our area. This should distribute the moisture and rain chances more evenly across the entire forecast area. Overall the models have been pretty consistent Monday into the weekend. The highest PWs arrive Thursday and Friday. Thus it still looks like best area-wide storm coverage and risk of flash flooding is on these two days. Models still showing numerous weak short waves moving north across the area Wednesday and beyond. A couple of these waves phase in with the mid-latitude jet Thursday and Friday, sweeping them east both days.

Models do begin diverging on their solutions after Friday. GFS shows main mid-latitude trough Saturday evening, and flushing the moisture east of the area Sunday and moving a fair weather ridge into the area Monday. ECMWF slower with this trough, not moving through and flushing the moisture until Monday.

Temperatures will begin a downward trend this week--we may have seen our last chance today for triple digits. By Thursday into the weekend we may even see below normal high temperatures.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1011 PM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Isolated BKN060CB -TSRA, mostly over the areas closes the International Border, but continue to spread north. Gusty winds 35-45 knots near some storms. A few thunderstorms could persist to or past 12Z. Scattered thunderstorms developing again after 18Z, first over the mountains and then followed within a few hours over the lowlands.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2026

No fire weather concerns are expected for the week ahead. We will be entering a very moist pattern while afternoon highs decrease. Min RH values this afternoon in the lower 20s will see a steady increase to the upper 30s and lower 40s by mid to late week. With the increased moisture, rain and storm chances will increase daily, peaking in the Wednesday to Friday period, with heavy rainfall and flash flooding the main concerns. Winds, apart from the thunderstorms, will be light while vent categories will range good to very good today, decreasing to fair to good for Monday, and then poor to good for the rest of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 97 73 93 / 20 10 30 60 Sierra Blanca 68 95 68 92 / 20 10 20 50 Las Cruces 69 95 68 90 / 30 20 40 50 Alamogordo 70 96 69 92 / 30 20 50 50 Cloudcroft 54 72 53 69 / 30 20 40 50 Truth or Consequences 69 93 68 88 / 30 50 50 40 Silver City 63 86 62 83 / 30 40 60 50 Deming 68 95 67 90 / 30 30 40 50 Lordsburg 69 92 68 87 / 30 50 50 40 West El Paso Metro 74 97 73 93 / 20 10 30 60 Dell City 70 99 71 95 / 10 10 20 60 Fort Hancock 74 101 74 98 / 20 10 20 50 Loma Linda 68 89 68 87 / 20 10 20 60 Fabens 72 98 72 95 / 20 0 20 60 Santa Teresa 70 95 70 91 / 20 20 30 60 White Sands HQ 74 97 73 93 / 30 20 30 60 Jornada Range 66 95 65 91 / 30 30 40 50 Hatch 70 98 69 93 / 20 30 50 50 Columbus 72 96 72 91 / 30 30 40 50 Orogrande 65 94 65 91 / 30 10 30 60 Mayhill 59 85 59 82 / 30 40 30 60 Mescalero 58 83 57 80 / 30 20 40 50 Timberon 56 81 56 79 / 20 20 40 50 Winston 59 83 58 79 / 30 60 60 70 Hillsboro 68 91 68 86 / 30 40 50 50 Spaceport 64 94 63 90 / 30 30 40 40 Lake Roberts 56 84 56 81 / 30 50 60 60 Hurley 64 88 63 84 / 30 40 50 40 Cliff 61 93 60 89 / 30 40 60 40 Mule Creek 56 87 56 84 / 30 40 50 40 Faywood 66 88 65 84 / 30 40 50 50 Animas 68 92 68 87 / 40 60 50 60 Hachita 68 92 67 87 / 30 50 40 60 Antelope Wells 67 92 67 88 / 30 50 40 70 Cloverdale 64 85 65 82 / 30 50 40 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.