textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon and evening. Best chances for areas east of the Rio Grande, including El Paso, Hudspeth, and Otero Counties. Storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances shift further east Sunday and Monday, limited mostly to Hudspeth and Otero Counties. A brief window of drier weather expected midweek before rain chances return Thursday into next weekend.

- Typical late-October temperatures, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Deep, layered moisture continues over the CWA from the RG Valley east with PWs of around an inch. This could be from another upper trough that rotated around the upper low over SoCal. Our round of severe weather seemed to align with the back edge of this layered moisture, with convection now weakened considerably and mostly over Otero County.

Saturday and Sunday...another upper trough now over western Arizona will rotate eastward Saturday, reaching the RG Valley mid afternoon. This looks to be the convective initiator, limiting most of the thunderstorms to the valley east starting mid afternoon. MUCAPES approach 1000 J/kg in the east Saturday, and much like today, decent speed shear with little directional shear. Thus, some severe storms are possible again on Saturday in the east. Same story mostly on Sunday, though as the upper low lifts out over Utah and the main trough from the low moves into New Mexico, the convective focus may shift even a bit further east. The environment still keeps MUCAPES of around 500-1000 J/kg, but with mid level winds turning more southwest, some directional shear is introduced back into the area. Hail likely to be the biggest threat again; some flooding is possible but lower PWs and the continued rapid movement of the storms should keep this threat lower.

Monday through Wednesday...drier air at upper levels moves in as upper flow turns westerly. However mid level remains southerly Monday so slight chance of storms remains over Hudspeth/Otero Counties. Tuesday and Wednesday should remain dry.

Thursday and Friday...mid and upper level winds become a bit more south/southwest as a Pacific trough approaches the west coast. This will draw up modest amounts of moisture, so a slight chance of rain will also follow for both these days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Widespread TS across south-central NM and W TX this evening, likely affecting KELP and KLRU between 21-03Z. Temporary IFR VIS due to +TSRA and gusts up to 35 knots possible. Prevailing surface winds 150-190 at 10 to 15 knots this afternoon with skies FEW- SCT070, SCT-BKN250. Developing CB after 20Z. Mostly dry conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning, with lighter winds and skies SCT-BKN120.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Low fire danger due to recent rains. Prevailing wind out of the S at 10 to 15 mph, with Good vent rates today. Scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon, affecting south-central New Mexico and Lincoln NF. Storms will be capable of sudden, gusty winds and localized flash flooding. Monday-Wednesday look drier, but rain chances return quickly by the end of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 75 57 73 / 60 0 50 30 Sierra Blanca 53 73 53 71 / 70 10 70 60 Las Cruces 52 71 52 70 / 40 0 20 10 Alamogordo 52 71 50 70 / 90 30 60 30 Cloudcroft 40 52 38 52 / 100 30 50 40 Truth or Consequences 51 68 49 68 / 30 10 10 0 Silver City 42 64 42 67 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 49 72 50 72 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 47 70 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 74 59 73 / 60 0 40 20 Dell City 56 73 55 70 / 90 40 80 70 Fort Hancock 59 82 59 79 / 60 10 70 60 Loma Linda 52 68 52 66 / 70 10 70 50 Fabens 57 79 58 77 / 60 10 50 40 Santa Teresa 55 73 55 72 / 50 0 20 10 White Sands HQ 56 73 56 71 / 80 20 50 30 Jornada Range 52 71 52 70 / 60 10 20 10 Hatch 52 73 51 73 / 20 10 10 10 Columbus 54 75 54 75 / 10 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 71 52 69 / 90 20 50 40 Mayhill 46 61 44 62 / 100 40 60 60 Mescalero 45 62 42 63 / 100 30 40 30 Timberon 42 58 41 59 / 90 60 70 60 Winston 40 63 37 63 / 20 10 0 0 Hillsboro 46 68 47 68 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 69 48 68 / 50 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 37 64 36 68 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 42 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 46 70 45 74 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 42 66 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 66 45 67 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 48 74 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch from this evening through late tonight for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Flood Watch through late tonight for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.