textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1121 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100 degrees. Widespread Heat Advisories in effect through Wednesday. - Some moisture gives the area, mostly mountains, a slight chance of rain Wednesday through Friday.

- Dry and breezy conditions over the weekend will result in near critical fire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Mid level high now centered over the southern CWA, while the upper high is centered over northern Mexico. Easterly wave on SW corner of the upper high will continue rotating northwest but remain well west of our area. Since the high center remains elongated east-west, most of the sub-tropical moisture will move up over western Arizona and SoCal. 500mb temps have cooled 2-4 degrees since Monday, and El Paso's sounding from Monday afternoon shows much of the mid level cap has been reduced.

Some of the sub-tropcial moisture begins to get recycled in over us this afternoon, but happens more in earnest on Wed/Thu. Thus today we could see some afternoon cloud buildups over the mountains, and even some dry lightning is possible. 60+ degree dewpoint depressions suggest little or no chance for wetting rains. A bit better chance of thunderstorms will exist Wednesday over the mountains as PWs and dewpoints see modest increases. Thursday will likely be the best chance for some thunderstorms area wide as highest dewpoints (40s to 50) and PWs (.70 to .90) occur, as westerlies aloft push the moisture from further west over us. Chance of thunderstorms continue Friday but those westerlies aloft begin bringing drier air in late in the day.

Saturday and Sunday...high aloft continues to drift a bit further south allowing mid-latitude dry flow scour out our moisture. This will also form lee-side troughing over eastern Colorado both days, resulting in breezy afternoon winds. This ends the chance of rain, and more significantly, brings breezy afternoon winds. This will accelerate our drying out of the airmass and fuels (assuming no large soaking rains Wed-Fri), and likely bring about near-critical fire conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SKC. Afternoon buildups developing next few hours, mainly over the mountains, to SCT-BKN100. Some virga or very light showers are possible over the mountains until around 00Z. Surface winds

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Main fire concerns this period is the lengthy drying out of the airmass and fuels. The mountains could see a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and again Thursday/Friday afternoons. Anything storms occurring today will have very little rain, but a risk of dry lightning. The lowlands zones will also have a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday/Friday. The weekend turns drier again. ERCs most zones are already at the 90th percentile and are forecast to reach around the 95th percentile over the next couple of days. The Sacramento/Capitan Mtns will be a few days later to reach both these levels. Thus, with breezy afternoon winds both Saturday and Sunday, fire conditions are expected to reach near critical for the weekend.

Min RH: Lowlands...6-12% Wednesday, increasing to 12-18% Thursday through Sunday. Mountains...8-15% Wednesday, increasing to 15-25% Thursday through Sunday. Vent rates good-very good Wednesday, becoming very good-excellent Thursday through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 107 79 105 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 71 102 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 104 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 58 83 56 80 / 0 10 10 10 Truth or Consequences 74 103 72 99 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 68 98 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 70 107 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 104 70 99 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 78 106 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 70 105 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 77 108 77 106 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 72 99 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 76 108 76 105 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 78 105 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 67 104 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 69 108 70 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 75 107 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 66 103 69 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 93 59 91 / 0 20 10 20 Mescalero 60 94 58 91 / 0 10 10 10 Timberon 58 91 57 88 / 0 10 10 0 Winston 63 95 60 92 / 10 20 10 30 Hillsboro 72 101 70 98 / 0 0 10 10 Spaceport 65 104 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 56 100 55 95 / 0 10 10 0 Hurley 68 102 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 104 60 99 / 0 0 10 0 Mule Creek 56 100 56 95 / 0 0 10 0 Faywood 70 100 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 71 104 71 99 / 0 0 10 10 Hachita 70 104 70 99 / 0 0 10 10 Antelope Wells 71 103 70 99 / 0 10 10 10 Cloverdale 68 98 66 94 / 0 0 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Wednesday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.