textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 849 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

- A weak cold front arrives from the east Saturday morning, with gusty east winds but minimal changes to temperature.

- Rain chances return early next week, with scattered rain showers Monday evening and Tuesday.

- Drier and warmer weather will return for the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Our weather this weekend, will be quiet and seasonal as the next upper level storm system gets organized off the west coast of Baja California. The only weather of note this weekend will be a weak back door (east to west) cold front that will push across the region Saturday morning. I hesitate to call it a weak cold front since there is almost no change in temperatures from Friday to Saturday. What will be noticeable about the cold front will be the brisk east winds that come in with the front. We will see gusty winds from the east Saturday afternoon, with the strongest gust along the west slopes of area mountains. Saturday's highs will run near seasonal averages, and Sunday's highs will be a few degrees above average.

On Monday the upper level trough off the west coast of Baja California will begin to move in our direction. Initially we will be too dry for any rain chances, but as we move into Monday night we will see a chance for rain showers, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Tuesday will be our active weather day. As the low moves pretty much right over our region, we will see a chance for some rain showers and maybe even some high elevation light snow. Along with the precipitation chances we will see some breezy to windy (but not too windy) conditions Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures on Monday will run 10 degrees above average, but highs on Tuesday, with the clouds and rain chances, will run a little below average.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a flat upper level ridge will try and push into the desert southwest. The ridge will return us to our normally dry conditions for this time of year and it will keep us clear of any high wind afternoons. High temperatures will run 5 degrees above average on Wednesday and then 8 to 12 degrees above average for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

We will have VFR conditions tonight and Saturday. Our low end gusty winds have dropped off and we will have light and variable or light north winds tonight. Our winds will come around to the east on Saturday morning as a weak back door cold front moves across the area. We could see another round of low end gusty winds, but from the east Saturday afternoon. We will see off and on high clouds (more off than on), so our ceilings tonight and Saturday will be unlimited.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Near Critical Fire Danger today with breezy west winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 10-15%. Red Flag Warning in effect for Capitan/Sacramento Mountains until 7 PM where conditions are meeting Critical thresholds for a few hours this afternoon.

Cold front arrives out of the northeast Saturday morning, shifting winds 180 degrees from today. East winds 10 to 20 mph tomorrow afternoon with gusty conditions over mountain ridges and west slopes. Ventilation remains Good to Very Good. Higher moisture with Min RH 15-25% will lead to Elevated Fire Danger. No Red Flags expected tomorrow.

Low Fire Danger on Sunday due to light winds and higher moisture. Scattered rain showers Monday/Tuesday will also keep fire danger low and may provide some wetting rains over the local forests. Winds becoming breezy out of the west again by Tuesday, but no fire headlines expected at this time. Dry and warmer conditions return Wednesday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 42 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 40 66 40 71 / 0 0 20 20 Las Cruces 35 68 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 34 68 36 72 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 23 45 28 52 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 35 65 39 72 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 30 60 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 70 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 31 66 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 45 70 47 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 37 68 36 73 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 42 75 43 78 / 0 10 20 10 Loma Linda 41 63 42 69 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 42 73 46 78 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 39 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 41 68 44 73 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 31 68 35 73 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 32 70 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 38 71 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 37 66 38 72 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 27 54 30 65 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 26 56 30 63 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 30 53 33 60 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 22 56 27 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 34 63 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 30 66 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 58 31 67 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 29 62 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 27 66 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 63 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 35 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 33 68 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 32 67 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 69 39 73 / 0 0 10 0 Cloverdale 36 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.