textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1018 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Expect widespread showers through the night across much of the area, with pockets of thunder and heavier downpours. This may help delay thunderstorm initiation on Saturday.

- Increased storm activity through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances decrease next week with drier and warmer conditions expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1018 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper level low is currently spinning over the Trans-Pecos Region, with several weak, and likely poorly-sampled impulses embedded in northeast flow dropping in across southern New Mexico. 200 mb streamlines show weakly diffluent flow across the Rio Grande Valley in southern NM, before becoming weakly convergent over SW New Mexico and the northern Sierra Madres.

Radar imagery shows widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across much of the central part of the CWA and into northern Chihuahua, with several outflow boundaries about the area. This will result in a chaotic scattering of showers and occasional thunderstorms overnight, amplified to some extent by an apparent disturbance dropping in from the north, which has led to an uptick in precip coverage over Sierra and northern Otero Counties in the past couple of hours. Eventually precip coverage looks to converge in south-central New Mexico in the pre-dawn hours, and we'll likely have an MCV to deal with tomorrow. The HRRR has been hinting at a slow start to convection in the south-central lowlands tomorrow, and a stabilized environment from widespread overnight showers would certainly bring that. We'll have to get rid of any MCV and associated debris clouds and remnant morning showers in order to destabilize tomorrow.

There is an outside chance for localized heavy rainfall still tonight, if we can get outflow boundaries to converge at the right time and place, especially if they are well timed with the disturbance riding in from the north. The most likely area would be in south-central NM.

The latest RRFS members are throwing a bit of a curve-ball, suggesting deeper convection in SW New Mexico tomorrow evening, while the HRRR has been inconsistent. A lot will depend on the situation we wake up to tomorrow (debris clouds, etc). But the overall pattern continues to favor a pattern that is favorable for bringing storms into the lowlands in the late afternoon and evening hours, with light N to NE flow aloft prevailing. Slow storm motion, combined with outflow mergers, and PWAT values around 1.35 inches will favor localized heavy rainfall. Without a really clear signal for where exactly things will come together, it is difficult to support issuing a Flash Flood Watch as the false alarm area would be very large. In these environments, issuing Flood Watches on time scales similar to severe/convective watches is recommended, and we can let the WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlooks do some of the heavier lifting.

GFS Ensemble plumes show PWAT values averaging 1.35 inches each day through Monday. Larger scale models continue to show heavy rain potential for Sunday afternoon and evening, again targeting the lowlands. This may help tone things down on Monday as instability will begin to wane, and the upper low weakens into an open trough over the Big Bend Region, with mid-level easterly flow limiting upper level support, and 500mb temps rise to around -3 to -4C. The moisture will still be there, but the forcing will be much weaker.

Then we're looking at a steep decline in moisture and continued warm temperatures aloft through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Widespread rain showers in the region with isolated thunder overnight. Can't rule out heavy rainfall at times, but probabilities are low at any given point location. TCS is most likely to see visby restrictions in heavy rain over the next couple of hours, then the focus will shift to LRU and perhaps even ELP after 07-08Z.

Expect widespread mid cloud cover in the morning, with some ceilings as low as 5000-6000 feet. Convection looks likely to be late tomorrow, especially in the lowlands, due to overnight rainfall having a stabilizing effect.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 17 2026

With the exception of burn scar flooding, fire weather concerns will be minimal to none over the next few days. Abundant moisture will be in place while a slow-moving UL low approaches the area. Thus, there will be scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms for the entire area throughout the rest of today and into the weekend, with the most likely time for rain during the afternoon and evening hours. Some areas may see as much as 2" of rainfall, especially in the mountains. With the increased moisture and below normal highs, min RH values will be in the mid 20s this afternoon and for Saturday afternoon, increasing to the mid 30s for Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday and especially the latter part of next week, we will begin a drying and warming trend.

Winds over the weekend will be light, outside of thunderstorms, and venting will be fair to good through Saturday, decreasing to poor to fair on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 72 93 71 93 / 50 30 60 40 Sierra Blanca 64 88 63 87 / 20 40 40 60 Las Cruces 66 92 66 91 / 50 30 50 40 Alamogordo 66 91 67 89 / 50 30 40 60 Cloudcroft 49 69 50 68 / 50 70 50 90 Truth or Consequences 68 92 70 91 / 80 20 20 50 Silver City 60 83 60 84 / 30 40 40 70 Deming 66 94 66 94 / 40 20 40 50 Lordsburg 65 88 65 90 / 30 20 30 30 West El Paso Metro 73 92 72 91 / 50 30 60 40 Dell City 67 91 66 91 / 30 40 30 60 Fort Hancock 71 94 70 93 / 20 40 60 50 Loma Linda 65 86 64 85 / 50 30 60 50 Fabens 71 94 70 93 / 50 30 60 40 Santa Teresa 69 91 68 90 / 50 30 60 40 White Sands HQ 72 93 72 91 / 50 40 50 50 Jornada Range 67 92 68 91 / 50 20 40 40 Hatch 67 96 68 95 / 60 50 30 50 Columbus 71 93 71 94 / 60 30 50 40 Orogrande 66 90 66 89 / 50 40 50 50 Mayhill 54 80 55 79 / 50 80 60 90 Mescalero 53 80 54 79 / 70 70 40 80 Timberon 51 77 52 76 / 40 60 70 80 Winston 57 84 58 83 / 40 70 20 70 Hillsboro 64 90 65 89 / 30 40 20 60 Spaceport 64 92 65 91 / 80 20 30 50 Lake Roberts 55 85 55 85 / 30 70 40 70 Hurley 61 86 61 87 / 20 40 30 60 Cliff 63 89 62 89 / 20 40 20 60 Mule Creek 60 85 60 86 / 10 40 30 60 Faywood 63 87 63 87 / 30 50 30 70 Animas 66 87 65 90 / 30 20 30 30 Hachita 64 88 64 90 / 40 20 50 40 Antelope Wells 66 87 66 90 / 40 50 50 60 Cloverdale 62 82 62 84 / 30 30 40 40

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.