textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 658 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- Late-September surge of moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday morning across New Mexico and Far West Texas. Heavy rain will be capable of flash flooding, especially across south-central New Mexico early Wednesday morning.

- Flash Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Wednesday evening. Heavy rain up to 3 to 5 inches is possible, which would cause significant flooding for some areas.

- Storm chances continue through Friday with a lowering threat of flooding. Mostly dry for the weekend and warmer.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM MDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Our big heavy rain event is expected to peak over the next 6-12 hours. All the ingredients are present for multiple rounds of convection tonight through Wed AM with storm motion generally from south to north. Tropical moisture is being pulled northward (0z RAOB PWs recorded 1.29") ahead of an upper trough off the West Coast, with that pattern holding steady through Wed. For tonight, we'll be underneath the favorable right entrance region of a jet streak that's over the Central Rockies. Additionally, vort maxes/embedded shortwaves pushing in from Chihuahua would provide more forcing for storm development.

The HREF and REFS have been very consistent over the past 24 hours with a corridor of heavy rainfall developing by midnight into southern Luna and Dona Ana Counties. This fetch of moisture and convection is modeled to expand northward through Dona Ana and Sierra Counties early Wed AM. The heaviest rain should mostly avoid El Paso, but the sharp QPF gradient in the CAMs is too close for comfort. Probability matched mean data focuses the heaviest rainfall over central Dona Ana through SE Sierra Counties. Midnight-6am is the most likely timeframe to see flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts are very impressive for Dona Ana and Sierra with PMM showing 2-3" in the Las Cruces vicinity and slightly lower amounts towards T or C (1-2"). High-end rainfall shows 4" or more in isolated areas.

With all that being said, scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding are expected early Wed AM with isolated considerable or even catastrophic flooding. Arroyos, sensitive canyons, burn scars (later Wed), and urban areas are most vulnerable. Even rises on the Rio Grande can be seen with minor flood stage not out of the question if the higher end rainfall comes to pass. Most of this rain will eventually end up in the Rio Grande or Sierra Co reservoirs. Areas along and W of the Divide and E of the 54 corridor are forecast to avoid the worst of the rain through Wed AM with more isolated flash flooding.

The heavy rain threat shifts NE during the day Wed with a shortwave/vort max, but scattered to widespread storms are still forecast. Less confidence in location and rain amounts Wed PM, but generally favoring Sierra and Otero Counties. All areas have at least a low risk of flooding through Wed night, decreasing out west. Additional rainfall of 2" is possible in isolated spots for Wed PM. For Thu, the flood threat focuses out east as drier air filters in west of the RGV. PWs remain at least 50% above normal east of the RGV with a general low risk of flooding and more scattered convection. There's a concerning QPF bulls-eye over the Salt burn scar on the 18z REFS Thu afternoon, so that's something to keep an eye on.

Moisture levels and storm chances continue to diminish into the weekend with mostly isolated storm coverage by Sat and PWs back to near normal. Area mtns and eastern areas will be favored for storms. Subtropical moisture looks to return early next week from the Pacific, possibly associated with a tropical system. PWs should rebound to above normal with low-medium storm chances area-wide to end the period.

Temps will be well below normal for Wed (lowland highs in the 70s) due to the extensive cloud cover. We'll gradually warm up to near normal for the weekend. Winds will be light outside of any gusty outflows. Any storms that develop shouldn't produce gusts much more than 40 mph since we're so saturated.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Widespread showers ongoing this morning with a brief break in the rain possible for KTCS and KDMN in the late morning and early afternoon. Showers transition to thunderstorms around 17-18Z with KELP and KLRU having the best chances to see thunderstorms. Sustained winds generally stay light at 5-10KT outside of thunderstorm outflows. Generally staying VFR to MVFR with reduced visibilities to 3SM possible due to storms and CIGs down to around 3000' possible at KELP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 658 AM MDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms will continue today but will start tapering off Thursday and even moreso into Friday. Drier conditions over the weekend.

Min RHs today and tomorrow increase to 60-80% in the lowlands and 80- 100% in the mountains. Scattered to numerous storms expected today and tomorrow where flash flooding will be the primary concern across the area. Min RHs Friday will be 40-60% and 80-100% in the mountains. RHs decrease slightly over the weekend both afternoons but stay well above critical thresholds. 20 foot winds will be light with speeds generally around 5-10 mph (outside of thunderstorms).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 78 62 81 / 50 50 90 50 Sierra Blanca 57 78 57 79 / 50 60 80 60 Las Cruces 57 75 59 77 / 60 40 90 40 Alamogordo 59 77 58 79 / 80 70 90 80 Cloudcroft 45 57 45 59 / 90 80 90 80 Truth or Consequences 57 74 59 77 / 70 50 100 50 Silver City 52 73 54 74 / 40 30 80 40 Deming 57 77 58 79 / 40 30 90 30 Lordsburg 58 77 60 79 / 20 10 60 20 West El Paso Metro 61 78 63 80 / 50 50 90 50 Dell City 60 79 62 81 / 60 60 90 70 Fort Hancock 64 85 65 86 / 50 60 80 50 Loma Linda 56 73 57 75 / 60 50 90 60 Fabens 62 81 63 83 / 50 50 80 40 Santa Teresa 60 77 61 79 / 50 40 90 40 White Sands HQ 61 77 62 79 / 70 60 90 60 Jornada Range 58 75 59 77 / 70 60 90 50 Hatch 59 78 61 80 / 60 50 90 40 Columbus 61 79 63 81 / 30 30 80 20 Orogrande 60 75 60 77 / 70 60 90 70 Mayhill 52 70 51 73 / 90 70 90 80 Mescalero 50 68 50 70 / 80 80 90 80 Timberon 48 65 48 67 / 90 70 90 80 Winston 50 68 52 71 / 50 50 90 60 Hillsboro 56 74 58 77 / 60 50 100 50 Spaceport 56 74 57 77 / 70 50 90 50 Lake Roberts 49 73 51 75 / 50 40 80 40 Hurley 52 73 54 75 / 40 30 80 40 Cliff 57 80 59 81 / 40 30 80 30 Mule Creek 54 76 56 77 / 40 30 70 20 Faywood 56 73 58 75 / 50 40 90 50 Animas 60 78 61 81 / 20 10 60 10 Hachita 59 77 60 79 / 20 20 70 10 Antelope Wells 59 79 61 81 / 30 20 50 10 Cloverdale 56 77 59 80 / 40 20 50 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch through this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley.

Flood Watch through this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.