textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

- Warm and dry weather over the weekend, with temperatures for El Paso metro and lower valley in the mid to upper 90s. - Increasing moisture next week will lead to widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail will be possible as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

One more day of very dry conditions for Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas on Sunday before the apparent early start of the North American Monsoon later this week. Upper level flow shows prevailing southwest winds overhead, with a strengthening subtropical high over the Gulf of America. We'll be bone-dry on Sunday with humidity in the single-digits. Temperatures will be warmer as well as 500mb heights increase. Lowland highs reaching the mid-to-upper 90s Sunday and Monday, with El Paso and the Lower Valley possibly reaching the triple-digit mark for the first time this year.

Main headline for the first week of June will be the arrival of Gulf moisture and daily thunderstorm chances. Consistent south flow within the mid-level 700-850mb layer will usher in moisture up the Rio Grande Valley starting Monday. Precipitable water values beginning 0.3-0.5" on Sunday will jump to 1.1-1.3" by midweek and really show no signs of fully eroding through the month of June. This certainly looks like a monsoonal weather pattern and may persist over the next few weeks.

Monday will signal the start of this moisture push. Rain chances will be limited mostly to the Sacramento/Guadalupe Mountain areas along the eastern fringe of the CWA where isolated showers and thunderstorms bring spotty rain. Most of southwest New Mexico will remain dry and very warm.

Storm coverage increases on Tuesday as moisture pushes up the Rio Grande Valley. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along the east of the Rio Grande. This would include decent chances (30-50%) for the El Paso/Las Cruces metro. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and localized flooding. Gusty outflow winds may kick up dust initially as desert topsoil are still dry.

Wednesday looks to be the best coverage for Southwest New Mexico, with scattered to numerous (60-80% chance) storms. Favorable moisture and instability combined with weak shortwaves aloft around a orphaned closed low over the Gulf of California will be responsible for storm formation that afternoon. Similar impacts being flooding, gusty winds, and hail.

Slight wind down in storm chances next Thursday/Friday as moisture shifts east a bit. Coverage may be a bit less (20-40%) those days, generally favoring the high terrain (especially the Sacramento Mountains) and east of the Rio Grande (Otero/Hudspeth Counties).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat May 30 2026

VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Skies SKC overnight into Sunday. Light winds tonight 280-340 AOB 06 knots. SW winds Sunday afternoon, 220-250 at 5 to 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat May 30 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the period. Dry and marginally breezy conditions today will result in elevated fire wx. W-SW winds of 10-15 mph are forecast this afternoon. Overnight recoveries will be poor tonight. Winds will be a bit lighter on Sun with continued dryness. Moisture increases from the southeast starting on Monday, spreading area- wide Tue/Wed with RHs climbing above critical levels on Wed. Eastern areas will have a low chance of storms Mon afternoon, with medium-high chances area-wide Tue/Wed. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, strong winds, frequent lightning, and small hail. Due to the high amount of moisture moving in, dry lightning is not much of a threat. Storm chances diminish later in the week. ERCs start out between 80th-90th percentile this weekend, then plummeting by midweek. Mild temps through Tue, then falling to below normal.

Min RHs range from 6-15% through Sun, rising to 12-35% for Tue. Vent rates will be good to excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 64 97 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 94 63 94 / 0 10 0 10 Las Cruces 54 93 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 93 67 96 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 45 73 50 75 / 0 0 0 30 Truth or Consequences 58 92 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 86 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 96 58 99 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 91 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 95 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 63 101 68 101 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 60 90 64 91 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 60 99 66 101 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 93 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 66 95 71 97 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 93 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 96 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 95 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 93 63 95 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 50 86 55 86 / 0 0 0 40 Mescalero 49 83 53 84 / 0 0 0 30 Timberon 47 80 51 82 / 0 0 0 20 Winston 47 85 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 57 90 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 45 87 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 50 88 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 91 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 86 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 53 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 54 93 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 54 92 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 86 57 87 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.