textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

- Moisture shifts eastward today and Saturday, focusing rain chances to south-central New Mexico and far west Texas. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flash flooding, especially over the Sacramento Mountains where a Flood Watch remains in effect through early Saturday morning.

- Drier weather briefly returns on Sunday and Monday. Next week features another moisture surge and the potential for widespread heavy rain and flooding.

- Typical mid-September temperatures through the start of next week, with lowland highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Our weather pattern has changed little over the last few days, that is why we have seen similar weather with thunderstorms each night. The players that have been giving us this weather is an upper level ridge centered over the southeast U.S. and an upper level trough centered over California. On Friday, the upper level trough will slowly begin to push toward the east across the Great Basin. This will help push our plume of moisture eastward. The threat for thunderstorms will continue for most of the area on Friday, but the threat for heavier rain will shift east of the Rio Grande. As the upper level trough pushes into the upper Midwest on Saturday, drier air will flow in behind it and that will lower our rain chances on Saturday and by Sunday we will have precipitable water values (PW's) well below an inch, so we may be rain free on Sunday. By Monday another upper level trough builds into southern California and that begins to draw moisture back into our region. But it will be a slow tap of moisture, so Monday is also looking pretty dry. But by Tuesday, we will again between an upper level ridge to our east and an upper level trough to our west and the circulations around the two will pull up abundant moisture up out of Mexico. Tuesday through Thursday of next week looks very rainy. It is still unclear how much instability we will have, but if we have some thunderstorms we will see a return to the threat of flash flooding, but if we just have a lot of rain showers, it will be cool and damp, but the chances for flooding will be lower.

Taking a quick look at temperatures. For Friday through Monday, we will see temperatures running near or a little above average. But then as the moisture returns, we will see our high temperatures drop below average for the middle of next week. High temperatures could run 3 to 6 degrees below average by next Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Lingering -RA across S NM this morning, with skies BKN-OVC110. Ceilings expected to break by 18Z this afternoon, becoming SCT100 with surface winds 150-180 at 05-08 knots. TS coverage will focus further E this evening, affecting KELP directly between 00-06Z. Temporary VRB20G30KT and 2SM TSRA. Left TS mention out for S NM sites due to lower confidence.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Low fire danger due to heavy rain this week. Light SSW winds this afternoon, 5 to 10 mph leading to Fair ventilation. Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected again this evening across Lincoln NF. Localized flash flooding is the main threat, especially over burn scars, mountain canyons, and other flood- sensitive locations.

Rain chances will shift eastward over the weekend, with chances decreasing across Gila NF and western NM. Risk of flooding will remain for Lincoln NF on Saturday. This weekend shows a downtrend in storm coverage, with Sunday being the driest day of the forecast. Above normal precipitation looks to resume again next week, allowing ERCs to plummet and keeping fire danger very low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 69 93 67 93 / 50 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 64 91 62 90 / 40 30 40 10 Las Cruces 63 90 62 91 / 20 0 10 0 Alamogordo 65 90 64 91 / 50 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 49 68 48 68 / 60 10 20 10 Truth or Consequences 62 88 61 89 / 20 10 10 0 Silver City 59 84 59 84 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 62 92 61 93 / 10 0 0 0 Lordsburg 65 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 93 67 93 / 40 0 10 0 Dell City 67 93 64 94 / 50 10 30 10 Fort Hancock 71 98 69 97 / 40 20 40 0 Loma Linda 65 86 63 85 / 50 10 10 0 Fabens 68 95 67 94 / 50 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 65 91 64 91 / 30 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 69 92 68 92 / 40 0 10 0 Jornada Range 63 90 62 90 / 20 0 10 0 Hatch 63 92 62 94 / 10 0 10 0 Columbus 66 94 65 94 / 10 0 10 0 Orogrande 63 89 61 89 / 50 10 10 0 Mayhill 55 82 53 82 / 50 20 20 10 Mescalero 53 80 52 79 / 50 10 10 0 Timberon 53 78 51 78 / 60 10 10 0 Winston 53 80 52 82 / 30 10 0 0 Hillsboro 63 88 63 89 / 20 0 0 0 Spaceport 60 89 59 90 / 20 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 83 52 82 / 10 10 0 0 Hurley 59 86 58 87 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 60 90 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 60 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 86 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 65 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 91 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 64 92 63 91 / 0 10 0 0 Cloverdale 63 87 61 85 / 10 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through late tonight for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.