textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

- Thunderstorm chances favor eastern areas on Tuesday, diminishing for Wednesday, then ramp up again late in the week.

- Temperatures will cool to near normal in Southwestern New Mexico through the week. They will hover about 5 degrees above normal near and east of the Rio Grande with lowland highs staying below 100.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM MDT Mon Aug 31 2026

More unsettled weather is expected into the overnight and Tue as the moisture plume is nudged eastward from AZ by a shortwave trough moving through the Rockies. Upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of a jet will allow for some lift tonight and convective redevelopment, generally along the RGV. Scattered showers and storms are modeled through midnight according to recent HRRR runs, favoring Sierra and Dona Ana counties. The activity progresses N and dissipates early Tue AM with isolated heavy rainfall.

For Tue afternoon, the moisture plume is over NM (PWs around 1.1") as western areas see more stable air and 500-1000 J/kg CAPE favor E of the RGV. Isolated to scattered convection is modeled during the afternoon for eastern areas while the rest of the lowlands are mainly dry. The highest threat of heavy rainfall will be in the Sacs with slow storm motion to the NE. For Wed, the upper ridge stretches across the southern High Plains, capping storms' ability to fire. Only the high terrain and NM Bootheel have low storm chances Wed afternoon.

Thu-Sat look more active as subtropical moisture from the Gulf of CA is scooped northward by the longwave trough over the Northwest. PWs climb to about 1.3" (75th-90th %-ile for early Sep) for the lowlands with any embedded shortwaves/vort maxes providing more lift than just orographic. Areas W of the RGV look best set up for heavy rainfall according to the LREF where moisture levels are higher. Scattered storms are forecast each day later this week as a result of the more favorable monsoon set-up. The upper high looks to drift further west from the Central US to the southern High Plains early next week based on global ensemble means. This would push much of the moisture into AZ and lower storm chances to end the period.

Temps will be steady through the weekend with highs a few degrees above normal E of the Divide. The increased clouds and rain chances should lower temps a bit Thu-Sat. Winds remain light through midweek mainly from the W.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Calm and quiet this morning but thunderstorms will start popping up early in the afternoon. Main focus for storms will be over the area mountains of southern NM and east of the Rio Grande. Storms in the lowlands will be more isolated. KTCS AND KDMN could see a shower but not expecting much out that way but slightly better storm chances exist for KELP and KLRU. Light breezes outside of thunderstorm outflows.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 529 AM MDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms (east of the Rio Grande) expected this afternoon. Tomorrow will feature even more of a downtick in storm activity with isolated to scattered storms in the higher terrain of southern NM. Better storm chances Thursday and Friday allowing for scattered thunderstorms in the area mountains and scattered lowland storms focusing west of the Rio Grande. Same locations will be favored for storms over the weekend. Temperatures remain above normal for this time of year. 20 foot winds will be generally light at 5-10 mph each afternoon calming overnight.

Min RH values stay above critical thresholds each day through Sunday. RHs will be 18-25% across the lowlands and 35-55 in the area mountains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 98 75 98 / 10 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 67 94 67 94 / 20 0 10 10 Las Cruces 68 96 69 96 / 10 0 0 10 Alamogordo 69 96 70 96 / 20 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 51 72 52 72 / 20 30 0 30 Truth or Consequences 70 94 70 94 / 20 0 10 30 Silver City 61 88 62 87 / 10 10 10 30 Deming 67 96 68 96 / 10 0 10 10 Lordsburg 67 93 67 92 / 10 10 10 30 West El Paso Metro 75 97 76 97 / 10 0 10 10 Dell City 70 98 71 99 / 20 0 0 10 Fort Hancock 73 101 74 101 / 20 0 10 10 Loma Linda 68 91 68 91 / 20 0 10 10 Fabens 72 98 72 98 / 10 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 71 96 72 95 / 10 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 72 97 73 97 / 20 0 0 10 Jornada Range 68 96 69 95 / 20 0 0 10 Hatch 69 99 69 99 / 10 0 0 10 Columbus 72 97 73 96 / 10 0 10 20 Orogrande 68 95 69 95 / 20 0 0 10 Mayhill 56 85 57 86 / 20 40 0 40 Mescalero 55 83 56 84 / 20 20 0 20 Timberon 54 82 55 82 / 20 20 0 10 Winston 57 85 58 85 / 20 10 10 60 Hillsboro 66 94 67 93 / 10 10 0 30 Spaceport 67 96 67 95 / 20 0 0 20 Lake Roberts 55 86 56 86 / 10 10 10 40 Hurley 62 91 63 90 / 10 10 10 30 Cliff 63 95 66 94 / 10 10 10 30 Mule Creek 60 89 62 89 / 10 10 10 20 Faywood 65 90 65 90 / 10 0 10 30 Animas 67 92 67 91 / 10 20 10 40 Hachita 67 92 67 91 / 10 10 10 30 Antelope Wells 66 91 66 89 / 20 20 30 50 Cloverdale 63 85 64 83 / 20 30 30 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.