textproduct: El Paso

UPDATE

Issued at 437 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Moisture left over from recent rains, light winds, and cooler temperatures will set up saturated atmospheric conditions and generate very low cloud decks and patchy fog this morning. Visibilities will vary, but may get a low as a mile. Fog will begin to dissipate around mid morning.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 923 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Patchy morning fog may reduce visibilities down to 1 mile

- Halloween will feature mostly dry conditions, light winds, and seasonal temperatures.

- A upper level system will bring more showers and thunderstorms to the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

- Quieter and drier weather will prevail after Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Batch of showers working west to east but should fizzle away by sunrise. Some lingering showery debris possible Saturday morning. Anomalous moisture will still be overhead with a focus on locations along the Int'l Border. Lower PW values over the northern half of the CONUS (0.7"-0.8") and higher values down south (0.9"-1.1"). Expect mostly cloudy skies Saturday. No real forcing for storms on Saturday, even though we have the moisture. If there's any breaks in the clouds, maybe a shower or thunderstorm possible. HRRR is suggesting some type of activity generally Deming and west. Halloween does look like it'll feature good weather for many locations. Highs will reach to the low to mid 70s but will dip into the 60s after dark. Winds stay light through the day and evening.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms exists Sunday evening. A southern Pacific low will meet up with a more northern Pacific low, joining up over the desert SW. Moisture is still well above normal with PW values of 0.9"-1.1". Now this time, we will have synoptic level forcing for storms Sunday evening. Uncertain how much instability there will be. GFS suggests very low CAPE values, but the EC suggest CAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg. After further digging, the NBM and LREF has more modest CAPE values (LREF ~500 J/kg, NBM ~600- 1000 J/kg) with a focus over Hudspeth and S. Otero counties. However, this area of instability may not be influenced just yet but the synoptic forcing. One thing we will have plenty of is shear. Will also have a pacific cold front moving through with this trough late Sunday and into Monday. May just have more showery activity with embedded thunderstorms that evening. Rain chances will push eastward through the overnight with some lingering showery activity possible Monday morning and afternoon. In addition to rain chances, winds will be breezy Sunday afternoon at 15-25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

By Monday afternoon, the center of the low will cross northern NM, sweeping out any moisture leftover. Winds will continue to be breezy Monday afternoon with similar wind speeds to Sunday. A much needed stretch of dry weather is ahead Tuesday through at least Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Bulk of the showery activity has pushed east of the terminals. Saturated atmospheric conditions with light winds and low cloud decks will generate patchy fog that could intermittently lower visibilities down 1 to 4 miles at terminals. In addition, moist conditions will set up very low cloud decks below a 1000 feet along with the patchy fog. Clouds should lift and fog dissipate before 18Z mid day. Drier conditions will prevail afterwards.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 437 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain has largely ended in the area, but moist conditions, low clouds, and light winds will generate patchy fog this morning that will will lower visibilities down to a mile or less in some locations. Moist conditions will keep fire weather concerns low. Min RHs today will be no less than 45% for most of the region, and Saturday's min RHs will be quite similar, even with a lull in the rain. Another round of rain will sweep through on Sunday afternoon as a second trough moves through. Dry conditions return Monday afternoon. Ventilation rates will improve from Poor today to Very Good on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 80 59 73 / 0 10 30 10 Sierra Blanca 55 79 55 73 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 76 54 70 / 0 50 70 10 Alamogordo 55 78 52 69 / 0 70 90 30 Cloudcroft 41 57 40 48 / 10 70 100 30 Truth or Consequences 56 76 52 71 / 10 60 80 10 Silver City 52 68 47 62 / 20 80 100 40 Deming 55 78 51 70 / 10 60 80 10 Lordsburg 56 75 50 68 / 10 80 100 20 West El Paso Metro 62 80 61 73 / 0 10 40 10 Dell City 57 79 58 74 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 62 88 61 80 / 10 0 0 10 Loma Linda 55 74 54 67 / 0 10 30 20 Fabens 60 84 60 77 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 58 78 57 72 / 0 30 40 10 White Sands HQ 59 79 57 72 / 0 50 70 10 Jornada Range 56 77 53 72 / 0 60 80 10 Hatch 56 80 54 75 / 0 60 80 10 Columbus 58 79 56 74 / 10 50 70 10 Orogrande 55 78 54 71 / 0 50 70 20 Mayhill 46 69 46 60 / 10 50 80 20 Mescalero 45 67 44 58 / 10 70 100 40 Timberon 44 65 43 58 / 10 60 90 20 Winston 47 69 45 63 / 10 70 90 10 Hillsboro 54 75 51 70 / 10 70 90 10 Spaceport 54 76 51 71 / 0 70 90 10 Lake Roberts 48 67 43 62 / 30 90 100 40 Hurley 51 72 46 65 / 10 80 100 20 Cliff 55 73 50 68 / 30 90 100 50 Mule Creek 52 66 47 64 / 60 90 100 60 Faywood 54 71 49 65 / 10 80 100 10 Animas 56 77 51 70 / 10 80 90 10 Hachita 55 77 51 70 / 10 70 90 10 Antelope Wells 55 78 53 72 / 10 60 80 10 Cloverdale 54 71 50 66 / 10 80 100 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.