textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1007 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the Lower Valley through Thursday.

- Thunderstorm chances will be focused over area mountains and out west through Thursday with a slight uptick in activity. A drying trend into the weekend.

- Blowing dust possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoons on the Lordsburg Playa from thunderstorm outflow as storms roll off the Gila.

- High temperatures will continue to run about 5-8 degrees above average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1007 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A similar set-up to previous days is expected for today. The subtropical high remains over AZ/NM with weak E-NE flow around it and not much forcing. Scattered convection develops over area mtns early in the afternoon, drifting into the lowlands by the evening. Large DCAPE values and steep lapse rates will result in gusty to strong outflow winds to 50 mph. Blowing dust is a concern again for the Lordsburg Playa, likely less of a risk than the last few days. Heavy downpours are possible as well with PWs at or slightly above normal for early August. Areas W of the Divide have the highest threat of flash flooding today, but is marginal. Isolated spots of 1-2" are possible out west through the evening. Storm chances lessen as you go south and east with a slight chance of showers/storms for the Las Cruces area late this evening.

The upper high drifts northwest for Thu, bringing in some added moisture from the east (PWs 1.1-1.2"). Storm coverage looks to increase for the lowlands as a result with a slightly higher risk of heavy rainfall, focusing over SW NM. Strong outflow winds to 50 mph and blowing dust are possible again on Thu for southern NM. Mostly dry conditions prevail for far west TX.

Not much movement in the upper high is modeled into next week, sitting close to the Four Corners. Storm chances trend down for Fri and into the weekend. Area mtns and western areas will remain favored for storms with mainly dry conditions in the lowlands to end the period. Global ensembles are hinting at the monsoon high making a new home over the Gulf Coast later next week, which would ramp up our monsoon flow and rain/storm chances. PWs look to reach around 1.25" at KELP after Wed according to the LREF. This pattern is something to monitor into next week.

Temps stay warm to hot into next week as the high remains close by. The lower RGV will be near advisory criteria through Thu with a slight cooldown into the weekend while the high migrates a bit further away. Temps climb a touch early next week, but will generally be about 5 degrees above normal. Lowland highs stay near 100 or just above into next week. Winds remain light from the E-SE each day outside of outflow boundaries.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1007 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Scattered TS develop over area mtns this afternoon, drifting towards KTCS and KDMN into the evening. KTCS is most likely to see TS today out of all terminals, favoring 21-0z. Lower storm chances for KLRU and KELP (10-20%) this evening. Outflow gusts over 30kts possible. Convection should dissipate around midnight. Winds AOB 8kts from SE outside of outflows.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1007 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. Scattered storms develop over area mtns this afternoon with frequent lightning and gusty to strong outflow winds to 50 mph possible. Better storm coverage over Gila today compared to Lincoln. Isolated heavy rainfall is possible out west. Light SE flow outside of outflows today. Storm coverage increases a bit for Thursday with scattered activity in the S NM lowlands into the evening. The marginal flash flood threat remains out west for tomorrow. Winds stay light from the SE for Thu. Storm chances dwindle into the weekend, favoring western areas with isolated coverage. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for the weekend as Min RHs drop to marginally critical. Temps remain a few degrees above normal into next week.

Min RHs range from 15-40% into the weekend. Vent rates will be fair to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 102 75 100 / 10 10 30 0 Sierra Blanca 68 98 68 97 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 71 100 68 98 / 20 40 60 0 Alamogordo 71 99 70 98 / 10 30 30 30 Cloudcroft 54 75 53 75 / 20 50 20 60 Truth or Consequences 72 99 70 99 / 20 30 40 10 Silver City 64 92 63 92 / 20 50 30 60 Deming 70 101 69 99 / 20 30 40 0 Lordsburg 69 98 69 97 / 30 30 30 20 West El Paso Metro 77 102 75 100 / 10 10 40 0 Dell City 72 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 76 105 76 104 / 0 10 10 10 Loma Linda 70 95 70 94 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 75 102 75 101 / 0 10 10 0 Santa Teresa 74 100 72 98 / 10 20 50 0 White Sands HQ 76 101 74 99 / 20 30 50 10 Jornada Range 72 100 70 98 / 20 40 50 10 Hatch 72 103 70 102 / 20 40 60 10 Columbus 74 101 73 100 / 10 30 50 0 Orogrande 71 99 70 97 / 10 10 30 10 Mayhill 59 87 58 87 / 10 30 20 30 Mescalero 59 87 57 87 / 20 50 30 50 Timberon 57 85 56 84 / 10 30 20 40 Winston 63 90 60 91 / 20 50 20 20 Hillsboro 69 98 67 97 / 20 30 30 10 Spaceport 70 99 68 99 / 20 40 50 10 Lake Roberts 59 91 58 91 / 20 60 20 70 Hurley 65 95 64 95 / 20 50 30 30 Cliff 66 98 66 98 / 30 50 30 60 Mule Creek 64 93 63 94 / 30 40 20 70 Faywood 68 95 66 95 / 20 30 30 20 Animas 69 99 70 98 / 30 40 60 10 Hachita 68 98 68 97 / 20 40 50 10 Antelope Wells 68 97 68 96 / 30 40 50 10 Cloverdale 64 91 65 92 / 30 50 60 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.