textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025 - Dry conditions with well above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- A back door cold front will bring some breezy to windy conditions Saturday night into Sunday morning, with temperatures cooling about 7-15 degrees Sunday and Monday.

- Near record highs possible again by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

The Borderland will remain dry through the next 7 days with northwest flow transitioning to a weak upper ridge for the weekend with a back door cold front then back to W to NW flow. Heights rising going into Saturday will lead to a gradual warmup from already above average temperatures. Near record highs or even a few broken records are possible Fri/Sat. Record at ELP Sat is 74, so that is not out of the question with the westerly surface winds. Dry air at the surface will continue to lead to cool mornings in the 20s and 30s.

Sat night into Sun, a back door cold front will push in from the east and drop highs about 8 to 15 degrees with the biggest cool down out east. NAM is the strongest with the east winds behind the front but the GFS is slowly trending up. The NAM has a better track record with these fronts and did push west slope winds up about 10KTS from what the NBM had. Think 15-25G35MPH is a definite possibility with gusts in the typical windy locations even stronger. Out on the Lordsburg Playa, it does look like a windy Sunday with similar winds and possible blowing dust.

An upper trough will approach the Four Corners region Monday and move through by late Tuesday. The strength of the system over the eastern half of the US pushes northerly winds well into the Gulf and limits the moisture getting into the area and it won't be deep enough for any precipitation. This trough will keep temps close to Sunday highs going into Tuesday which are still at or above normal. Westerly flow kicks in by midweek and temps will warm back up to near record highs.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

P6SM SKC-FEW250 with light west winds turning more north to northeast overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1009 AM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

Warm and dry conditions will continue through the period. The warmest temperatures will be Fri/Sat before a back door cold front pushes in to drop highs around 10 degrees. Min RH's will be mainly in the teens to lower 20s through Sat but jump into the 20s and 30s for Sun/Mon before dropping back off again. Winds will be light through Sat but will be breezy to low end windy Sun behind the front. Poor vent rates Fri with a little improvement for Sat to Fair in mountain zones.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 40 73 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 42 69 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 70 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 53 33 53 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 35 73 34 74 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 71 34 71 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 32 73 31 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 36 75 35 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 34 68 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 73 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 35 70 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 71 38 71 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 30 70 31 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 34 72 33 73 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 38 73 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 34 71 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 37 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 29 64 28 64 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 62 24 62 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 29 67 28 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 40 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 34 70 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 25 68 26 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 36 69 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 28 71 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 26 69 28 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 40 70 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 36 71 35 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 35 73 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 38 72 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.