textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1015 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Windy conditions will prevail through Friday, with a risk of blowing dust across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. This may cause impact travel conditions by reducing visibility on area roadways.

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected Wednesday as strong winds combine with very dry humidity. Outdoor burning is discouraged. Any fires that do start will spread rapidly.

- Drier conditions with near to slightly below normal temperatures for the weekend along with lighter winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

The well advertised longwave trough across western CONUS will dictate weather conditions across the Borderland Region once again today, promoting impactful weather in the form of strong winds, blowing dust, and elevated/critical fire weather conditions. Current mid-level water vapor imagery shows the aforementioned upper level system over the Great Basin region. This lobe of energy is progged to move eastward through today placing the associated 80-100 knot 500mb jet over southern NM and west TX. The increasing PVA and upper level dynamics will induce a ~990mb surface low over the High Plains of NE CO this afternoon, with a tightly packed surface trough across NM. With the most of the mid to upper level moisture over the Great Basin and Central Rockies, cloud coverage will be at a minimum through the day. That said, afternoon mixing will extend to roughly 650-700mb, translating those mid level winds down to the surface. The combination of upper level dynamics and surface troughing, within a well-mixed environment, the stage will be set for another bout of strong winds across the Borderland Region this afternoon.

A High Wind Warning is in effect through this evening for the Sacramento Mtns, Gila high terrain, and the Franklin/Organ/San Andreas Mountains east slopes, including Central and East El Paso where winds will gust up to 60 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect elsewhere with winds gusting to 50-55 mph. These strong SW/W winds will promote blowing dust across the desert lowlands. Hazardous driving conditions will result from the blowing dust due to reductions in visibility.

Winds will slowly diminish after sunset with wind products expiring before midnight. Winds will likely be gusty along the east slopes of area mountains through the overnight timeframe.

For Thursday, the ingredients in place for Wednesday will not be as pronounced. Lee-side surface low development and the subsequent surface troughing will not be as dramatic. However, with 70-90 knots 500mb jet still overhead and sufficient afternoon mixing in place, winds will still be in the breezy to low-end windy category Thursday afternoon. Winds will be out of the west at 15-25 mph sustained with gusts up to 40-45 mph. Isolated areas of blowing dust will be possible during the afternoon, especially in and around the more dust prone locations. Temperatures will drop 3-8 degrees from Wednesday, topping out at or below the seasonal average.

On Friday, the final lobe of energy will move west to east across the Four Corners and Central Rockies Region. Again, this upper level setup looks favorable for lee-side surface low development over the High Plains of SE CO during the afternoon. As of now, winds look to be at the cusp of Wind Advisory Criteria, so issuance of products may be needed during the future forecast packages. That said, expect another day of windy conditions on Friday.

For the weekend, zonal flow aloft takes over with slight upper level ridging on Sunday. A backdoor cold front will push in from the east Saturday night with cooler temperatures expected on Sunday. Temperatures will warm back up next week, back above the seasonal average.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Gusty winds prevail through the afternoon and evening. Winds will continue to increase through the morning and into the afternoon timeframe, becoming 20-30 knots sustained with gusts to 40-50 knots during the afternoon and early evening. Winds will be generally out of the SW to W.

Gusty winds will promote BLDU across the desert lowlands with VIS reductions to 1-3 SM. Skies will be generally SKC to FEW250 through the period. Winds will slowly diminish after sunset. However, winds will still be gusty for KELP during the evening and overnight timeframe due to down sloping on Franklin Mountain east slopes.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1015 AM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated to near-Critical fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of southern NM and west TX. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for NMZ111/NMZ112/NMZ113/TXZ055/TXZ056 from 11AM to 6PM today. Winds will increase through the day, becoming 25-40 mph sustained with gusts to 60-70 mph during the mid-afternoon timeframe. Highest winds will be felt over the Sacramento Mtns/Gila Mountains. Min RH values will drop to 10-15 percent across the desert lowlands and 15-25 percent for NMZ113. Deep afternoon mixing will promote excellent smoke ventilation rates this afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions continue for all zones except NMZ110 through Friday as winds remain in the breezy to windy category. Isolated rain/snow showers possible for the Gila today through Friday. Vent rates remain excellent through Friday, becoming poor to fair Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 43 65 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 63 37 66 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 36 59 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 35 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 23 37 23 38 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 36 60 37 61 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 31 48 30 48 / 30 20 0 10 Deming 37 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 35 56 31 57 / 20 10 0 10 West El Paso Metro 42 64 42 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 36 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 40 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 36 57 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 39 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 38 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 41 61 41 62 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 35 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 37 63 36 63 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 40 63 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 35 60 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 30 52 29 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 26 48 26 49 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 29 47 29 48 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 25 50 26 51 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 33 57 34 57 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 30 61 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 27 47 27 48 / 30 20 0 20 Hurley 31 52 30 52 / 20 10 0 10 Cliff 33 53 28 55 / 40 20 10 20 Mule Creek 30 48 26 49 / 50 30 10 30 Faywood 33 52 33 52 / 10 10 0 10 Animas 35 61 37 62 / 10 10 0 0 Hachita 35 60 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 37 61 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 55 35 58 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Salt Basin-Western El Paso County.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County.

NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Blowing Dust Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ.

High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.