textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

- Warmer weather returns for New Year's Eve, with light rain showers overnight into New Year's Day across southwest New Mexico. Breezy west winds Thursday and Friday.

- Dry and warm weather Friday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

As we head into 2026, moisture and clouds increase across the region ahead of an upper trough. This afternoon will remain dry with light winds underneath amplified ridging aloft, allowing for nice wx for the Sun Bowl game. Temps will be a few degrees above normal today. Light rain showers move into western areas this evening as deeper subtropical moisture arrives. Rain chances tonight will be low (40% or less) outside of the Gila Region where there is better lift due to topography and proximity to the low. PoPs were nudged down overall in the short-term towards the HREF/REFS. Snow levels stay high (9kft or higher), keeping precip as nearly all rain through Thu. Rain chances diminish east of the RGV for Thu AM as moisture is squeezed out of the system. The El Paso ball drop should stay dry (10% PoPs) tonight.

A lee sfc low strengthens Thu afternoon in NE NM/TX panhandle, resulting in breezy west winds. 850mb flow of 20-30kts is forecast later in the day from the GFS, focusing south and east. Gusts to 30-40 mph are expected across most of the CWA. For the higher terrain and east slopes, winds stay gusty for Thu night while the pressure gradient stays somewhat tight and another shortwave approaches the Southern Rockies. This second system keeps winds breezy for Fri with similar speeds to Thu and another lee low in NE NM. Wind grids were bumped up to NBM 75th for Thu and Fri afternoons due to the favorable pattern for stronger winds.

After Fri, upper ridging re-establishes over the region, resulting in generally light W winds and continuing warm temps into next week. The weekend looks pleasant under fair skies with highs in the 60s to around 70, which is 8-14 degrees above normal. The next chance for precip will be into the middle of next week as an atmospheric river moves inland. We'll see if the persistent ridge forces the moisture north and west of the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Mid-high clouds overspread the area during the day with CIGs dropping to about 10kft this evening. Low chance (20-30%) of -SHRA after 06z for KDMN and KTCS with about 20% chance for KLRU and KELP around 12z. Lower confidence in KELP and KLRU getting rain. Winds remain AOB 6kts through the period with some variability.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1022 AM MST Wed Dec 31 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. For this afternoon, winds will be light with some variability under increasing clouds. Low rain chances move into western areas this evening, diminishing along and east of the RGV overnight into Thu AM. With snow levels above 9kft, precip will fall as nearly all rain with little to no accumulation. Two upper disturbances bring breezy west winds for Thu and Fri afternoons, shifting more NW for Fri. 20-ft winds of 10-20 mph are forecast each day. Min RHs will be comfortably above critical levels Thu and Fri, so elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. Dry with light winds for the weekend. Temperatures will be above normal through the period.

Min RHs range from 10-20% this afternoon, then 30-60% through Fri. Vent rates will be mostly poor today then fair to very good through Fri.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 48 70 48 68 / 10 20 0 0 Sierra Blanca 45 66 44 65 / 10 10 0 0 Las Cruces 43 66 40 65 / 20 20 0 0 Alamogordo 39 65 37 65 / 20 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 36 42 32 43 / 10 30 10 0 Truth or Consequences 44 66 40 65 / 30 40 0 0 Silver City 44 57 40 57 / 60 60 30 20 Deming 45 68 41 66 / 40 30 10 10 Lordsburg 44 63 44 62 / 60 50 30 10 West El Paso Metro 49 69 48 67 / 10 20 0 0 Dell City 36 69 40 68 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 44 73 47 70 / 10 10 0 0 Loma Linda 45 63 43 61 / 10 20 10 0 Fabens 44 71 45 69 / 10 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 44 68 45 66 / 10 20 0 0 White Sands HQ 48 69 46 67 / 20 20 0 10 Jornada Range 40 68 37 65 / 20 20 0 0 Hatch 42 70 36 68 / 30 20 0 0 Columbus 48 70 47 67 / 40 30 10 10 Orogrande 41 67 38 65 / 10 20 0 0 Mayhill 42 57 36 57 / 10 20 0 0 Mescalero 37 55 32 55 / 10 30 10 10 Timberon 35 53 32 54 / 10 30 0 0 Winston 38 60 32 60 / 40 50 10 0 Hillsboro 44 65 39 65 / 50 40 10 10 Spaceport 39 67 33 65 / 30 30 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 56 35 57 / 60 60 30 30 Hurley 43 60 39 60 / 60 50 20 10 Cliff 42 63 39 65 / 60 60 40 20 Mule Creek 42 58 39 60 / 60 60 40 30 Faywood 46 61 41 61 / 60 50 20 10 Animas 47 66 44 65 / 50 50 20 10 Hachita 45 66 44 64 / 40 40 20 0 Antelope Wells 47 67 42 66 / 40 40 20 0 Cloverdale 48 60 43 59 / 40 40 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.