textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1049 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- An uptick in thunderstorm coverage, including in the lowlands, is expected again Sunday, before shifting into far SW New Mexico and the Sacramento Mountains on Monday.

- Localized flash flooding will be the main hazard from storms, typical for mid-end Monsoon days. Blowing dust and strong outflow winds may occur from storms over the lowland deserts. - Another dry and warmer spell is on the way for next week as the ridge drifts west. Rain chances may improve toward the end of next wee as weak disturbances dropping in from the northwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Thunderstorms today mostly stayed focused east of the Rio Grande, under an upper tropospheric deformation zone associated with an tight upper tropospheric low over northern Coahuila. This fit quite well with the Pytlak (2005) conceptual model of upper tropospheric lows and troughs in relation to modulating monsoon season precipitation. Higher PoPs in put in the forecast 24 hours ago, largely leaning into pattern recognition and supported by CAMS, were the right call versus NBM output which produced PoPs at ELP below climatological PoP values for the date.

With the upper low's westward progress stalled, as mentioned last night, Sunday continues to look like an active day with thunderstorm coverage a little more evenly spread out across the area. The upper level deformation zone will be laid SW to NE across the CWA from the Bootheel into the Texas Panhandle. An added wrinkle will be increased upper divergence in SW New Mexico from a weak disturbance lifting across Arizona, as SW flow edges into the western arm of the subtropical ridge. This will act in tandem with the upper tropospheric low. Models show the closed mid-level low will decouple from the upper circulation, drifting into the Big Bend region Sunday afternoon, and leaving upper circulation behind in Coahuila. A notable pocked of cooler mid- level air (-8C at 500 mb) will accompany the low as it drifts towards us, but it looks to mostly stay out of area. The decoupled low also has a weak reflection down to around 700 mb, and the GFS has a plume of higher dewpoints across southern NM by afternoon.

So, in short, another active day tomorrow with showers and thunderstorms over a wider area, likely most of the CWA. CAMS suggest max rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range. There's little consensus on who will get hit the hardest in the lowlands, but some consensus favoring heavier rain chances in the Gila as well as the Sacramento Mountains (especially the west slopes). Will hold off on any Watches, and let subsequent shifts chew on updated guidance.

By Monday, the upper tropospheric trough will mostly be sheared out, but a remaining weakness leftover from the decoupled mid- level low will remain over southern New Mexico. This is also possibly signs of an MCV over the area, and this is also hinted at in GFS CAPE values, with a relative minimum in instability over south- central New Mexico. If things are active tomorrow, someone is likely to get "shut off" for Monday, and south-central NM (eastern Luna into Dona Ana County) is a fair bet. Best chances for thunderstorms will be in the Gila and far SW New Mexico into the Bootheel, with a secondary focus over the Sacramento Mountains. PWAT values in the lowlands will still be hovering around 1.2 to 1.3 inches, so the localized heavy rain threat will continue.

Warmer and drier conditions look to take over from Tuesday, with still hope for a relief as the ridge breaks down on its eastern edge later in the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR and light winds through the night. Good chances for more widespread convection on Sunday afternoon and evening, with all terminals earning a PROB30. There is again a chance for convection to initiate on some of the lower desert mountain ranges in the vicinity of ELP and LRU earlier in the afternoon (19-21Z), but it is more likely thunderstorms will hold off until after 22Z, in a similar scenario to what we saw Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1059 AM MDT Sat Aug 15 2026

We will see a little better chances for rain today and Sunday, but then drier air and lower rain chances return to the region for much of next week. Min RH's today through Monday will be near or above 20% across the area lowlands with higher percentages in the mountains. Then as we head into the middle of next week the drier air will give us min RH's in the mid teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Each afternoon any thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing strong and gusty outflow winds. Away from the thunderstorms, our winds will stay well below critical levels. Ventilation rates today and Sunday will range from fair to good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 98 73 96 / 20 30 30 10 Sierra Blanca 65 93 65 92 / 30 30 20 10 Las Cruces 68 96 68 94 / 20 40 40 10 Alamogordo 70 94 68 93 / 10 70 30 20 Cloudcroft 52 71 50 70 / 10 60 20 50 Truth or Consequences 70 95 70 92 / 20 40 50 20 Silver City 63 89 64 87 / 10 40 50 60 Deming 69 98 70 95 / 20 40 50 20 Lordsburg 69 96 71 95 / 0 30 40 30 West El Paso Metro 75 97 74 96 / 20 40 30 10 Dell City 70 97 70 96 / 20 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 73 100 73 99 / 30 30 20 10 Loma Linda 68 90 67 89 / 20 30 20 20 Fabens 72 98 72 97 / 20 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 96 71 94 / 20 40 30 10 White Sands HQ 73 96 72 94 / 20 40 30 10 Jornada Range 70 96 69 94 / 20 60 40 10 Hatch 70 99 70 97 / 20 40 40 10 Columbus 73 98 73 95 / 20 30 40 10 Orogrande 68 94 67 93 / 10 50 20 10 Mayhill 56 83 56 82 / 10 40 20 20 Mescalero 56 82 55 81 / 10 60 20 50 Timberon 54 81 53 80 / 10 60 20 20 Winston 60 87 59 84 / 10 50 60 40 Hillsboro 67 94 66 91 / 20 50 60 30 Spaceport 68 95 67 93 / 20 40 40 10 Lake Roberts 57 87 57 86 / 10 60 50 70 Hurley 64 92 65 89 / 10 50 60 40 Cliff 66 96 67 94 / 10 20 20 70 Mule Creek 63 93 64 91 / 10 20 20 80 Faywood 66 92 66 88 / 10 50 50 30 Animas 69 97 71 95 / 0 30 40 30 Hachita 69 96 70 94 / 10 40 50 30 Antelope Wells 68 95 69 93 / 10 20 30 30 Cloverdale 65 90 66 90 / 0 30 30 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.