textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- A slow moving area of low pressure aloft will keep an active monsoon pattern in place over the area on Monday. Localized torrential downpours and flash flooding will continue to be a risk, with the main threat being west of the Rio Grande. - The focus for thunderstorms will try to shift a little west of the Rio Grande on Tuesday, then closer to the Arizona border for Wednesday.

- Storm chances plummet from Wednesday,into the weekend, and temperatures will begin to increase above normal again. Triple digit high temperatures return to the lowlands for Friday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Merry-go-round high pressure will control our weather over the next 10 days. An area of upper level high pressure is currently centered over Colorado and this upper level ridge will make a slow tour of the southwest this week and by the start of next week, will end up pretty much back where it started over Colorado.

For Monday, like I said, the ridge will centered over Colorado which gives us an easterly flow aloft. Embedded in this flow has been a very slow moving weak upper level trough. This trough will be centered more or less over northern Mexico, Monday afternoon. This trough will help spark wide spread thunderstorm activity and with precipitable water values (PW's) of 1.3 to 1.4 inches across the region, storms will be very efficient rain makers. The greatest threat for heavy rain will be in Luna, Hidalgo and southern Grant Counties where a Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect. These locations have already see good amounts of rain on tonight and last night and it looks like they will be under the gun again Monday afternoon. With all the clouds and moisture, our high temperatures will be running several degrees below average. Many lowland locations may not make it out of the 80's for high temperatures.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level ridge will drift into the Red River Vally of Oklahoma and Texas. This ridge position will begin to push the moisture further and further to the west. For Tuesday there will be enough moisture to give everyone a chance for rain, but by Wednesday much of the moisture will be pushed into Arizona, so the best rain chances will be along the New Mexico and Arizona border. High temperatures both days will continue to run a few degrees below average.

For the end of the week, into the weekend, the upper level ridge will build directly over New Mexico and that will pretty much shut down our rain chances and it will jump most lowland location's high temperatures back above the triple digit mark. For the start of the final week in July the ridge will return to Colorado. It doesn't look like much moisture will be able to slip into the region from the east so the hot dry weather looks to continue as we finish out July.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Thunderstorm activity has finally weakened and moved out of the region. We may see a stray shower from time to time tonight, but otherwise we should not see any convection until tomorrow afternoon. Monday again looks active with thunderstorm developing first in area mountains and then working down into the lowlands. Storm motion will be to the southwest. The best chances for thunderstorms impacting a TAF site will be at KLRU and KDMN, so I have a mention of thunder in both of those TAF's. As convective trends become clearer we will update TAF's as appropriate. Otherwise for the rest of tonight we will have high and mid ceilings of BKN120-250. Ceilings will lower some on Monday but still stay in the mid category, except for locations near thunderstorms which could see some BKN050 ceilings for a time. Winds on Monday will be light and from the south, but outflow boundaries from thunderstorms will drive much of the wind forecast Monday afternoon and evening. We will again see thunderstorm chances for Tuesday then drier and hotter weather for the end of the week

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

No fire weather issues to be concerned with through most of this week, as moisture/humidity remain high through Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms again this afternoon/evening and again on Monday, before the chance of rain moves out mostly over areas Deming west Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain slightly cooler than normal. For Friday into the weekend drier air moves in with little or no chance of rain. Min RHs lower with lowland RHs approaching critical. Temperatures will warm back above normal. No significant non-thunderstorm winds expected.

Min RH: Lowlands 35-45% through Tuesday, then decreasing to 15-25% by Thursday and Friday. Mountains 50-70% through Tuesday, then decreasing to 20-35% by Thursday and Friday. Vent rates fair-good through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 88 70 89 / 60 40 50 30 Sierra Blanca 63 81 62 86 / 60 50 30 20 Las Cruces 65 87 64 87 / 50 40 40 40 Alamogordo 65 85 65 87 / 20 70 50 60 Cloudcroft 49 66 49 68 / 30 80 40 70 Truth or Consequences 69 90 69 87 / 30 40 40 60 Silver City 60 82 59 80 / 40 90 50 90 Deming 65 92 64 90 / 50 50 50 60 Lordsburg 65 88 64 86 / 60 70 60 70 West El Paso Metro 71 87 70 88 / 60 40 50 30 Dell City 67 88 66 91 / 30 50 30 10 Fort Hancock 70 88 69 92 / 60 50 50 30 Loma Linda 64 80 63 82 / 50 40 50 30 Fabens 69 88 68 90 / 70 40 50 30 Santa Teresa 67 86 67 86 / 60 40 50 30 White Sands HQ 71 88 71 88 / 30 60 40 50 Jornada Range 66 88 66 88 / 30 50 50 50 Hatch 67 92 66 91 / 30 40 50 60 Columbus 69 90 68 89 / 70 50 50 50 Orogrande 66 85 65 87 / 30 50 40 30 Mayhill 54 77 54 79 / 30 70 30 50 Mescalero 53 77 53 78 / 20 80 40 70 Timberon 51 73 51 75 / 30 80 50 50 Winston 58 83 58 80 / 40 60 40 70 Hillsboro 64 88 64 85 / 30 50 50 70 Spaceport 64 88 63 87 / 20 50 50 60 Lake Roberts 56 84 55 82 / 30 80 50 90 Hurley 61 85 60 83 / 40 80 50 80 Cliff 63 88 62 86 / 30 90 50 90 Mule Creek 60 85 60 83 / 40 90 50 90 Faywood 62 85 62 83 / 30 70 50 80 Animas 65 87 64 85 / 60 70 60 70 Hachita 63 87 62 85 / 70 60 60 60 Antelope Wells 65 84 64 83 / 60 70 60 70 Cloverdale 61 80 61 79 / 50 70 60 80

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel.