textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 439 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Mild temperatures and breezy east winds this weekend. Rain chances return early next week, with scattered rain showers Monday evening through Tuesday.

- Drier and warmer weather will return for the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

1024mb surface high centered over the Southern Plains today has allowed our winds to switch around out of the east this morning. These east winds have been breezy, with gusts 25 to 35 mph along the I-10 corridor. Winds will remain low-end breezy this afternoon, generally 10 to 15 mph. Minimal change to temperatures today compared to yesterday. Lowland highs should reach the upper 60s/lower 70s again, right near normal for early March. Slightly warmer on Sunday with winds remaining out of the east but lighter in speed. No hazards.

Retrograding upper low has moved off the coast of Baja California today and will remain there through the weekend. Low will begin progressing east early next week, leading to precipitation chances for southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Increasing moisture combined with diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching low will be sufficient for scattered (40-60%) rain showers as early as Monday afternoon. Best chances favoring southwest New Mexico. Light rain showers will continue through most of the day on Tuesday. Overall QPF is on the lower side, best guess being in the 0.10-0.25 range for rain totals. We may also see a few isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. Pacific cold front will also knock temperatures down again for Tuesday with breezy west winds.

Wednesday through the rest of next week will be dry with a warming trend, allowing temperatures to run above normal for several days. No significant winds expected at least through next weekend, either.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 439 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail, with some convective debris clouds scraping by ELP from the south, and some cirrus blow-off about as well. Otherwise, steady east flow will slacken a bit after dark, and shift to NE and ENE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Elevated Fire Danger today due to breezy east winds. Surface high pressure over the Southern Plains will lead to east winds this weekend. Wind will be breezy 10 to 20 mph this afternoon, leading to Good to Very Good ventilation. Min RH 15-25%, higher than yesterday. No fire headlines expected.

Low Fire Danger Monday/Tuesday as moisture increases, bringing scattered rain showers. New precipitation totals generally 0.10-0.25 over the NM forests. Winds return out of the west on Tuesday, 15 to 25 mph. Dry conditions return Wednesday through the rest of the week, with a warming and drying trend. Next stretch of Elevated to Near Critical Fire Danger is forecast around next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 45 75 50 81 / 0 10 0 10 Sierra Blanca 40 70 44 78 / 20 20 10 10 Las Cruces 38 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 36 72 43 79 / 0 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 28 52 35 57 / 0 10 0 20 Truth or Consequences 39 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 37 66 42 70 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 40 74 43 78 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 41 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 47 74 51 80 / 0 10 0 10 Dell City 36 73 42 81 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 43 78 47 86 / 10 10 10 10 Loma Linda 41 69 47 75 / 0 10 0 10 Fabens 44 77 48 83 / 0 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 41 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 44 73 49 79 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 35 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 35 74 41 81 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 43 74 47 80 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 38 72 43 78 / 0 10 0 10 Mayhill 30 66 38 70 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 30 63 36 68 / 0 10 0 20 Timberon 34 61 40 65 / 0 10 0 20 Winston 28 64 33 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 38 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 33 72 39 77 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 31 66 38 70 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 35 68 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 33 74 39 77 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 34 70 39 73 / 0 0 0 20 Faywood 39 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 39 73 42 77 / 0 0 0 20 Hachita 39 72 42 76 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 39 72 43 77 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 42 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.