textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1031 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Sunday with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards.

- Lowland high temperatures will be in the upper 90s and low triple digits Saturday before cooling slightly into the upper 80s and low 90s.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday and Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms which could lead to flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

High pressure will start shifting over the Four Corners Saturday, then starts shifting over the Rockies and northern Plains for Sunday. Continued chances for thunderstorms focusing over the area mountains with more isolated to potentially scattered activity in the lowlands for the weekend. One more triple digit day Saturday with many lowland locations seeing upper 90s and lower triple digits for highs. Highs dip below average temperatures for this time of year throughout the upcoming work week. The Borderland will be under east flow Sunday through around Tuesday. A good southeast fetch from the Gulf will entrain above average moisture Monday and Tuesday with PWs of 1.3- 1.4". Monday and Tuesday look to be the most active days with the best coverage. Biggest thing to watch will be any flooding with thunderstorms. Models are still suggesting an inverted trough pushing towards the area by midweek next week or so which could bring more potential for flooding.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are starting to wind down tonight. An outflow from storms near the Sacramento Mtns is pushing south and west which may bring some breezes and a wind shift depending on which terminal. Lesser confidence that KDMN will see this outflow. It should make it to the other terminals around 05Z-07Z. Skies will clear overnight with light wind speeds. Another round of thunderstorms tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

We continue in a hot and relatively dry pattern for today and Saturday, but there will be enough moisture for scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms. Gusty winds along with a low risk for dry lightning would be the main concerns. Min RH values will range from the min to upper teens in the lowlands. Winds, apart from thunderstorms, will be light, topping out near 10 MPH. As we go into Sunday and into next week, moisture will increase while afternoon highs decrease. Afternoon min RH values will only drop into the mid and upper 20s. Thunderstorm chances, including a threat for heavy rainfall and flash flooding, will also increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 101 76 97 / 10 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 68 95 66 90 / 0 0 0 30 Las Cruces 69 99 70 95 / 10 10 20 10 Alamogordo 72 98 69 94 / 0 30 10 40 Cloudcroft 54 75 51 71 / 10 40 10 40 Truth or Consequences 73 100 72 95 / 10 20 30 50 Silver City 65 93 64 89 / 20 40 40 50 Deming 68 101 69 98 / 10 20 30 40 Lordsburg 68 98 68 95 / 30 30 40 40 West El Paso Metro 76 100 76 95 / 10 0 0 10 Dell City 71 98 69 93 / 10 0 0 20 Fort Hancock 75 102 73 97 / 0 0 0 30 Loma Linda 69 93 68 89 / 0 0 0 20 Fabens 74 102 74 97 / 10 0 0 20 Santa Teresa 72 98 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 77 100 76 96 / 10 10 20 20 Jornada Range 72 99 71 95 / 20 20 20 20 Hatch 71 102 71 98 / 30 20 20 30 Columbus 73 101 74 98 / 30 20 20 30 Orogrande 71 98 70 93 / 0 10 0 20 Mayhill 58 85 56 81 / 10 20 10 50 Mescalero 57 86 55 82 / 10 40 10 40 Timberon 56 84 53 80 / 10 20 10 40 Winston 62 91 61 87 / 20 30 30 50 Hillsboro 70 97 68 93 / 20 30 40 50 Spaceport 69 99 68 95 / 20 20 20 30 Lake Roberts 59 94 58 90 / 20 60 40 50 Hurley 65 96 64 92 / 20 30 40 40 Cliff 65 98 65 94 / 20 50 30 50 Mule Creek 62 95 63 91 / 20 40 20 50 Faywood 66 95 66 91 / 20 30 40 40 Animas 68 98 67 95 / 40 50 50 40 Hachita 66 97 67 94 / 30 30 40 40 Antelope Wells 66 96 67 94 / 60 40 50 50 Cloverdale 63 90 63 89 / 70 40 40 50

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.