textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1047 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Upper level system will bring light and scattered showers to the region Monday night through Tuesday.

- A brief warming trend will be interrupted by this system on Tuesday, but the warming will return later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Some scattered clouds have pushed north of the border this evening, debris from convection over central Chihuahua. No precip risk for us through the night. An upper low currently cut off from the main flow west of Baja California will boost our precip chances Monday night and through Tuesday.

Temperatures will ramp up Sunday and Monday, reaching the lower-80s again for the lowlands Monday afternoon. But the incoming system will drop temps back to a few degrees below normal for Tuesday.

Precip is likely to hold off until after dark Monday night, as showers will be fighting dry air in the low levels (it is March afterall). Some brief breezy west winds will be possible as the showers encounter the drier air.

The best chances for precip in El Paso/Las Cruces will be during the day Tuesday as a leading shortwave trough and weak surface trough pushes through ahead of the main upper low. Breezy WSW winds will occur during the afternoon and into the overnight hours behind the main trough. Most of this is handled well in the grids (produced by WPC from Day 4/Tuesday onward), including the wind potential (generally 20-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph). Blowing dust risk is low given the precip moving in, and wind speeds don't really support much more than a light hazy dust like we saw back on Thursday. Low impact.

Snow levels look to be quite high until Tuesday, then will drop to around 8,500 feet. Slushy light accumulations will be possible in the highest elevations of the Sacramento Mountains on Tuesday. March sun angle and marginal temperatures won't help.

Longer Range (Wednesday onwards), the automated forecast grids look good with no significant weather, including wind, expected. Temperatures look to quickly rebound, with highs reaching the middle 80s by Friday in the lowlands again.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 PM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail, with some convective debris clouds grazing ELP and LRU from the south. Light winds overnight will favor E to NE, and will try to come around to the S and SE Sunday afternoon, most likely finding success at TCS, with more variability elsewhere.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Elevated Fire Danger today due to breezy east winds. Surface high pressure over the Southern Plains will lead to east winds this weekend. Wind will be breezy 10 to 20 mph this afternoon, leading to Good to Very Good ventilation. Min RH 15-25%, higher than yesterday. No fire headlines expected.

Low Fire Danger Monday/Tuesday as moisture increases, bringing scattered rain showers. New precipitation totals generally 0.10-0.25 over the NM forests. Winds return out of the west on Tuesday, 15 to 25 mph. Dry conditions return Wednesday through the rest of the week, with a warming and drying trend. Next stretch of Elevated to Near Critical Fire Danger is forecast around next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 47 76 51 82 / 0 10 0 10 Sierra Blanca 45 72 50 78 / 20 10 0 10 Las Cruces 41 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 36 72 42 79 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 30 52 38 57 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 39 71 47 77 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 37 67 43 70 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 40 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 37 72 39 76 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 48 75 51 80 / 0 10 0 10 Dell City 39 74 38 82 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 43 79 45 86 / 10 10 0 10 Loma Linda 41 69 42 75 / 0 10 0 10 Fabens 46 77 50 86 / 0 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 44 73 47 81 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 46 74 52 79 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 32 72 35 79 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 37 75 38 81 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 42 75 46 80 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 38 72 41 78 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 30 66 35 71 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 32 64 36 68 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 32 61 33 66 / 0 10 0 10 Winston 29 64 34 69 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 41 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 37 72 39 79 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 25 67 24 70 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 34 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 32 74 33 77 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 26 70 27 73 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 39 68 44 72 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 38 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 20 Hachita 40 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 36 72 39 78 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 39 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.