textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Record March warmth through Thursday. Lowland high temperatures in the lower to mid nineties.

- Very dry conditions this week. Near Critical fire weather conditions on Thursday due to breezy winds.

- Backdoor cold front arriving this Friday. Cooler temperatures, gusty east winds, and blowing dust possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Upper high almost directly overhead tonight, making a very slow eastward crawl over the next few days leading to continued record March warmth and extremely dry conditions. These temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for late March, and will likely break daily records for March 25/26. Besides the heat, it looks like a nice day Wednesday with light west winds and sunny skies.

Weak shortwave crossing the Southern Rockies to our north on Thursday will allow winds to pick up slightly. This shortwave can be currently be seen off the Pacific coast and has virtually no moisture associated with it. Weak lee surface low development over the Texas Panhandle will promote west flow 15 to 20 mph for our area. This isn't a big concern for most, but will play a role in fire weather given the abnormal warmth and dryness.

Strong 1040mb surface high over the Northern Plains on Thursday will send a cold front south across the High Plains. This is yet another unseasonably strong cold front, reaching Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas early Friday morning. Breezy east winds, cooler temperatures, and possibly blowing dust on Friday. Current guidance shows a 10 to 20 degree cooling (lowland highs upper 70s/lower 80s), yet this still keeps us slightly above normal. Recent backdoor cold fronts have kicked up quite a bit of dust over Eastern NM and West TX, so El Paso may be hazy that afternoon.

Upper high shifts east next weekend, leaving us in a south flow regime and allowing a fetch of moisture out of the Gulf of California into Arizona/New Mexico. Slight precipitation chances for the final couple days of March going into early April. It also looks like the first week of April may usher in the return of a more typical Spring windy pattern with strong southwest flow aloft.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VMC through forecast period under very light flow aloft. Skies FEW-SCT250, becoming SKC most of the day Wednesday. Surface winds light and variable overnight, then WSW 230-260 at 05-10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Main fire weather concern this period centers on Thursday. Very dry conditions and record high temps will continue. We will see an increase in winds Thursday afternoon as an upper trough passes through. Expect winds in the 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. This will definitely push fire conditions to near-critical, but at this time looks to remain just below Red Flag conditions. Strong back door cold front sweeps in Friday morning with strong wind shift and east winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph...strongest along west slopes of terrain.

Fire conditions will improve dramatically after Friday as both winds will decrease, and humidity increases. And by Sunday and Monday we even have a chance of showers.

Min RH: Lowlands 4-8% through Thursday increasing to 15-25% Friday through Sunday. Mountains 8-15% through Thursday increasing to 20-35% Friday through Sunday. Vent rates fair-good this afternoon and Wednesday, becoming very good-excellent Thursday, fair-good Friday through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 95 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 92 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 54 93 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 54 94 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 48 73 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 58 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 86 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 95 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 90 49 89 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 96 51 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 98 56 98 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 88 59 89 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 96 56 97 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 54 93 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 95 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 94 50 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 52 97 49 96 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 95 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 93 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 53 87 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 85 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 52 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 48 87 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 59 92 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 51 93 48 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 87 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 89 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 48 92 46 90 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 88 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 52 91 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 91 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 52 92 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.