textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

- Hot temperatures again Thursday. A Heat Advisory is in effect for southern Dona Ana county, El Paso, and the lower valley. - Continued rain chances Thursday and Friday with the area mountains being favored with more isolated activity in the desert lowlands.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

High pressure that was overhead today will start to shift southward over northern Mexico for Thursday. This will help shave off a couple of degrees from high temperatures tomorrow, but it will still be another hot day. Heat Advisories will still be in effect tomorrow for southern Dona Ana, El Paso and the lower valley. Slightly better moisture pushes in for Thursday with PWs nearing an 1", which would be the 75th percentile for this area this time of year. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again with the high terrain being favored and isolated to potentially scattered storms in the lowlands. Moisture is still expected to be over the area Friday, maybe slightly less moisture but should be enough for another round of afternoon thunderstorms again.

A continued gradual "cooling" trend expected through the weekend and early next week. High pressure weakens and redevelops over the Gulf states by Saturday before expanding over the SE US. A large upper trough over the PacNW this weekend will shove out moisture for western areas of the CWA, leaving the best moisture east of the Rio Grande, and especially over far west TX. Similar set up for Sunday as well. If a trigger for storms is present, then we could get thunderstorms. Typically the Sacramento Mtns and the Gila region/Black range will begin thunderstorms early in the day, and thunderstorm outflows will kick off storms in the lowlands... but if the mountains can't produce storms, then storms in this area becomes unlikely (unless there's some other trigger available). In addition, this weekend does look a bit breezier than what we've been seeing recently. Winds of 10-20 mph are probable through the afternoons, but not nearing advisory level criteria. This will increase fire weather concerns though.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Plenty of decaying showers across the area tonight. Things will continue to fizzle out overnight. Could see a few sprinkles at terminals as these showers diminish. BLDU that went through KELP may keep lowered visibilities for another hour or two but should hopefully settle tonight just creating a haze. Otherwise generally light winds AOB 10KT tonight. Light afternoon breezes expected tomorrow with another round of thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Main concern this afternoon will be sudden wind shifts due to strong outflow from rain showers. Isolated (10-20%) showers developing over the high terrain this afternoon which will be low-precipitation, but produce gusty winds. Sudden, erratic gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. This will be very difficult to detect ahead of time, given the low intensity of rain. Otherwise, conditions will be hot again today, with Min RH 10 to 15%. Very Good ventilation today with transport to the E.

Moisture increasing tomorrow, which will lead to isolated (20-30% coverage) showers again. Main threats will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning, with minimal rain amounts. Excellent vent rates with prevailing flow out of the west.

Outlook for the weekend will be a subtle but steady cool down, with temperatures near normal for the first week of July. Gila NF will be dry, with Near Critical fire weather conditions. Moisture pushed east will limit storm chances to Lincoln NF and far west Texas over the weekend, then returning area wide next week. ERCs are very high, at the 90th percentile over the New Mexico forests and currently at seasonal peaks.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 79 105 77 103 / 10 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 71 100 70 98 / 10 20 20 30 Las Cruces 72 104 69 100 / 10 20 20 0 Alamogordo 72 101 70 100 / 10 20 20 10 Cloudcroft 55 79 54 78 / 10 20 20 10 Truth or Consequences 72 100 69 100 / 10 30 30 10 Silver City 66 94 64 93 / 10 20 10 0 Deming 71 103 68 102 / 10 20 20 10 Lordsburg 70 99 67 99 / 10 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 78 102 75 101 / 10 20 20 10 Dell City 71 104 70 102 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Hancock 77 106 75 104 / 10 20 20 30 Loma Linda 72 97 70 95 / 10 20 20 10 Fabens 76 105 74 104 / 10 20 20 20 Santa Teresa 75 103 72 100 / 0 20 20 10 White Sands HQ 78 102 76 101 / 0 10 20 0 Jornada Range 72 102 69 100 / 10 20 20 10 Hatch 72 104 69 103 / 10 20 20 10 Columbus 77 104 73 102 / 0 20 20 0 Orogrande 71 101 69 99 / 0 20 20 10 Mayhill 60 91 59 89 / 10 20 20 20 Mescalero 58 90 57 88 / 10 20 20 10 Timberon 57 87 57 86 / 10 20 20 10 Winston 61 91 58 91 / 10 30 20 10 Hillsboro 69 99 67 98 / 10 20 20 10 Spaceport 68 101 65 100 / 10 20 20 10 Lake Roberts 60 94 58 93 / 10 20 10 10 Hurley 68 97 64 96 / 10 20 20 0 Cliff 67 99 64 99 / 10 20 10 0 Mule Creek 65 95 63 94 / 10 20 20 0 Faywood 68 96 66 95 / 10 20 20 10 Animas 70 99 67 99 / 10 20 20 10 Hachita 70 99 66 99 / 10 20 20 10 Antelope Wells 70 99 68 98 / 20 20 20 10 Cloverdale 67 93 64 93 / 30 20 20 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Thursday for Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley.