textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Low elevation desert temperatures will periodically reach 100 to 105, posing a risk of heat-related illnesses.

- Thunderstorm chances will remain highest over the Gila wilderness and Sacramento mountains, and to a lesser extent the boot heel of NM. Storms will be slow-moving and capable of locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

High pressure aloft will remain entrenched over much of the southern Rockies and southern deserts through the next several days with only minor fluctuations in strength and orientation. Currently, PWATs remain between 1.0 and 1.3 inch over much of the forecast area, and through early to middle of next week the orientation of the high will keep monsoon moisture favoring Sonora into southern AZ with modified and more subdued PWATs into NM and far west TX. Sluggish storm motions will be common, increasing the locally heavy rainfall threat through at least early next week.

Today's storms will be mostly concentrated over the Sacramento mountains and Gila wilderness through mid afternoon before propagating into nearby valleys with storms struggling to initiate farther south near the borderland. The Flood Watch for the Sacramento's will end at 6 PM MDT when the heavy rainfall threat will abate there.

Into Sunday, high resolution models indicate the Gila and Sacramento's observing convective initiation again, while storms also develop farther southwest over the boot heel and along the Sonora- Chihuahua border. Consequently, isolated to scattered storms have been built into the Sunday afternoon forecast for much of the western half of the forecast area with most of far west TX staying void of storms. Temperatures will follow close to persistence with lots of upper 90's and low 100's in the lower elevation deserts.

Changes into Monday are subtle with a slight increase in storm coverage over western areas where cells will continue to slowly drift westward. Temperatures will gain a degree or two of warming, especially along the Rio Grande.

Minimal changes in the strength or orientation of the high Tuesday onward will make it difficult to pinpoint any appreciable day-to-day changes with sensible weather elements. POPs mimic climatology for late July, typically the most active thunderstorm period, with the Gila, NM boot heel, and Sacramento's staying the favored areas for rainfall. Temperatures in the Rio Grande will escalate to 100 to 105 in many locales, increasing heat impacts next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VMC expected through the forecast period. Lingering FEW-SCT090 with isolated SHRA over the mountains should not affect local terminals overnight. Quiet conditions tonight with skies SCT- BKN250 and surface winds 350-040 AOB 5KT. Isolated TSRA coverage tomorrow with gusty winds possible across S NM between 21-03Z. No mention in TAFs yet due to low confidence in direct impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

No widespread critical fire weather conditions are forecast through the next several days. Thunderstorms will favor the Gila wilderness and Sacramento mountains, as well as the boot heel of NM with more sparse storm activity only occasionally making it into lower deserts of southwestern NM. Temperatures will be hot in lower elevation deserts with minimum RH of 15 to 20% being common in the afternoons. Wind concerns will be limited to thunderstorm outflows on localized scales for brief time frames.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 80 103 79 104 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 70 97 71 99 / 0 10 10 0 Las Cruces 73 100 73 101 / 10 10 20 0 Alamogordo 75 99 76 102 / 10 20 0 10 Cloudcroft 56 75 56 77 / 20 40 10 20 Truth or Consequences 75 100 74 101 / 40 10 10 0 Silver City 67 92 66 92 / 30 40 20 40 Deming 74 102 72 102 / 10 10 10 10 Lordsburg 73 99 72 98 / 30 10 30 10 West El Paso Metro 81 102 80 102 / 0 0 20 0 Dell City 74 101 74 103 / 0 10 10 0 Fort Hancock 78 104 78 105 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 72 95 72 96 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 78 103 78 104 / 0 0 10 0 Santa Teresa 77 100 76 101 / 10 0 20 0 White Sands HQ 80 101 80 102 / 10 10 10 10 Jornada Range 76 100 76 102 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 75 103 74 104 / 30 10 10 0 Columbus 78 103 77 102 / 10 10 10 0 Orogrande 75 99 74 101 / 10 10 10 0 Mayhill 61 87 61 89 / 10 30 10 20 Mescalero 60 87 61 89 / 20 30 10 20 Timberon 59 85 59 87 / 10 30 10 20 Winston 64 90 63 92 / 40 50 10 30 Hillsboro 72 97 71 98 / 50 30 10 10 Spaceport 73 100 72 101 / 30 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 62 93 61 93 / 40 50 20 60 Hurley 68 96 67 96 / 30 30 20 30 Cliff 69 98 68 98 / 40 30 20 30 Mule Creek 67 94 66 94 / 40 30 20 30 Faywood 70 95 68 95 / 30 30 20 20 Animas 73 99 71 97 / 20 20 30 10 Hachita 72 99 70 98 / 10 20 30 10 Antelope Wells 71 98 70 96 / 10 20 30 20 Cloverdale 67 92 66 90 / 30 30 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.