textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and again Sunday afternoon. Best chances for Southwest New Mexico. Storms will be capable of brief heavy rain and gusty winds. - A few rain showers remain possible Monday/Tuesday, followed by dry weather the rest of the week ahead. - Warm October temperatures through Tuesday, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 80s. Cooler temperatures on the way late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Tropical Storm Rachel is making an approach to Southern California/Baja today, aided by a Pacific shortwave aloft merging with the system and accelerating it to the northeast. Locally, south flow ahead of this system is pulling up moisture. Precipitable water values are expected to jump to around 1.0" by mid-afternoon. Weakly unstable profile combined with stronger forcing aloft should result in isolated showers and thunderstorms across Southwest New Mexico in the late afternoon and evening hours tonight. Storms will be weak, but could produce some gusty winds. HRRR has a slight chance of rain showers as far east as El Paso around sunset tonight, but chances are slim.

Increased PoPs for Sunday compared to blended guidance. Right entrance region of a 75-knot 500mb jet streak will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across Southwest New Mexico Sunday afternoon. A few storms may be capable of severe wind gusts, given 0-6km shear around 40 knots and DCAPE 1000-1200 J/kg. Warm nose aloft on model soundings will hinder storm coverage, but I do think there's enough forcing for storm chances. HRRR also shows another wave late Sunday night, bringing rain showers nearly area-wide. This will be worth monitoring for localized flooding risk.

Remnants of Simon begin to approach Monday/Tuesday. Models are getting more and more confident that this moisture will miss us to the east. Token PoPs still in place across Hudspeth County, but chances for dry weather are higher across the majority of the forecast area.

Dry air within the base of the Pacific low progressing over the Central Rockies will flush out moisture locally and lead to a streak of dry weather Wednesday through the rest of the week ahead. Pattern is favorable to expect a backdoor cold front and cooler temperatures Friday into next weekend. Global models struggle with the evolution of this Pacific low. ECMWF detaches it from the polar jet and retrogrades it over the area, GFS progresses it within a stronger jet flow. Leaning toward the GFS solution, the drier and cooler solution.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VMC through forecast period with surface winds 150-180 at 08-12 knots. Skies beginning SKC-FEW080, becoming SCT-BKN090 BKN250 after 21Z. Isolated TSRA across SE AZ and SW NM after 21Z this evening. Included PROB30 mention for KDMN, but not enough confidence for other S NM sites and KELP. Any storms that do affect terminals would likely be between 00-06Z and short-lived. Gusts up to 30 knots possible near storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Low fire danger due to recent wetness and ERCs slightly below seasonal normals. Above normal temperatures on Sunday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening for both Gila and Lincoln NF. Breezy SSW winds 15 to 25 mph leading to Very Good vent rates on Sunday. Moisture shifts east Monday/Tuesday, with a slight chance of additional rain showers over Lincoln NF. Breezy SW flow continues, 15 to 20 mph and Very Good vent rates during the afternoon hours.

Dry weather expected rest of the week ahead, with winds weakening. Wind shifts due to cold front intrusions are possible Friday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 89 66 86 / 10 10 40 0 Sierra Blanca 61 87 63 86 / 0 0 40 0 Las Cruces 62 85 61 82 / 20 40 40 0 Alamogordo 65 86 63 83 / 0 10 50 0 Cloudcroft 48 64 46 61 / 0 10 40 0 Truth or Consequences 60 83 58 80 / 20 30 30 0 Silver City 56 75 53 72 / 30 60 30 30 Deming 61 85 58 81 / 20 30 20 0 Lordsburg 61 82 57 79 / 20 30 10 20 West El Paso Metro 69 88 68 85 / 10 10 40 0 Dell City 63 90 64 88 / 0 0 40 0 Fort Hancock 68 95 68 92 / 0 10 40 0 Loma Linda 62 82 61 79 / 0 10 40 0 Fabens 67 92 67 89 / 0 10 50 0 Santa Teresa 65 87 64 84 / 10 20 40 0 White Sands HQ 67 88 65 85 / 10 20 40 0 Jornada Range 63 86 61 82 / 20 30 40 0 Hatch 62 88 61 84 / 20 40 30 0 Columbus 64 88 62 84 / 20 30 20 0 Orogrande 63 86 62 83 / 10 10 30 0 Mayhill 53 76 53 75 / 0 10 40 0 Mescalero 53 75 51 72 / 0 10 50 0 Timberon 51 73 51 70 / 0 20 60 0 Winston 51 76 50 74 / 20 40 20 10 Hillsboro 59 82 57 79 / 30 40 20 10 Spaceport 59 84 58 81 / 20 30 40 0 Lake Roberts 51 73 49 70 / 40 70 50 30 Hurley 57 79 53 75 / 30 50 20 20 Cliff 60 81 57 77 / 30 70 60 40 Mule Creek 56 76 53 72 / 40 90 70 50 Faywood 59 79 55 75 / 30 50 20 10 Animas 62 83 59 80 / 20 30 10 20 Hachita 60 83 58 80 / 20 30 10 10 Antelope Wells 61 83 58 81 / 20 20 10 10 Cloverdale 58 76 56 73 / 20 30 20 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.