textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 919 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Temperatures warming back to near normal Tuesday and beyond (lowland temperatures in the lower/mid 80s).

- Mostly dry conditions through the week ahead, a much needed break after September's heavy rain. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 919 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A weak upper-level ridge is stationed over New Mexico as prevailing zonal flow moves across the northern tier of the United States today. The ridge is also keeping deep subtropical moisture confided to Mexico, with the region only seeing clouds for today. Easterly flow from a surface high in the Southern Plains will bring east winds up to 15 mph and keep temperatures for the region in the mid-to-upper 70s today.

Heading into tomorrow, the ridge moves out as a Pacific trough enters the Great Basin. The trough will raise temperatures into the upper 80s, close to normal for early October. Dewpoint temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s will aid with the development of high clouds, but little to no precipitation expected.

The trough enters New Mexico on Wednesday and drops into Texas on Thursday, which should increase PWAT values to 0.7 inches in the mountains and 0.8 inches down south. A very slight chance of showers in the mountains are possible for both days, with the lowlands remaining mostly dry.

The trough moves out of the area on Friday. Into the weekend, a weak shortwave trough brings some moisture back to the region, with a chance for showers possible out west on Sunday. Further out, the models are conflicted for early next week's weather, with the GFS having a ridge over the region, and the ECMWF having a long Pacific trough enter the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 919 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions expected for the entire period. Southeast winds at 10-15 mph will prevail across the region, with wind gusts of 20 mph or higher possible near KDMN. Ceilings will range from SCT050 to BKN250.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 919 AM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Recent rains and decent Min RHs in the 40s-50s will keep fire danger low today. Min RHs will decrease to the 20s-30s into midweek as drier weather (compared to the last few days) lies ahead.

Continued southeast winds at 10-15 mph will keep ventilation rates poor today and tomorrow. Light easterly flow will continue into midweek, with some mountain showers possible Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 81 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 58 78 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 41 60 43 61 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 54 78 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 51 75 54 77 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 58 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 80 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 63 81 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 58 81 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 63 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 57 74 59 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 83 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 80 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 81 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 58 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 82 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 73 49 72 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 46 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 46 67 48 69 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 46 74 48 74 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 56 78 58 80 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 46 76 48 77 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 52 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 54 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 51 79 54 81 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 54 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 58 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 80 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 59 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 56 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.