textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 447 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

- A weak cold front arrives from the east this morning, with gusty east winds but minimal changes to temperature.

- Rain chances return early next week, with scattered rain showers Monday evening and Tuesday.

- Drier and warmer weather will return for the middle and end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 930 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Our weather this weekend, will be quiet and seasonal as the next upper level storm system gets organized off the west coast of Baja California. The only weather of note this weekend will be a weak back door (east to west) cold front that will push across the region Saturday morning. I hesitate to call it a weak cold front since there is almost no change in temperatures from Friday to Saturday. What will be noticeable about the cold front will be the brisk east winds that come in with the front. We will see gusty winds from the east Saturday afternoon, with the strongest gust along the west slopes of area mountains. Saturday's highs will run near seasonal averages, and Sunday's highs will be a few degrees above average.

On Monday the upper level trough off the west coast of Baja California will begin to move in our direction. Initially we will be too dry for any rain chances, but as we move into Monday night we will see a chance for rain showers, mainly west of the Rio Grande. Tuesday will be our active weather day. As the low moves pretty much right over our region, we will see a chance for some rain showers and maybe even some high elevation light snow. Along with the precipitation chances we will see some breezy to windy (but not too windy) conditions Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures on Monday will run 10 degrees above average, but highs on Tuesday, with the clouds and rain chances, will run a little below average.

For Wednesday and Thursday, a flat upper level ridge will try and push into the desert southwest. The ridge will return us to our normally dry conditions for this time of year and it will keep us clear of any high wind afternoons. High temperatures will run 5 degrees above average on Wednesday and then 8 to 12 degrees above average for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 447 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Also after 00Z...slight chance of BKN070 -SHRA over Hudspeth County. Surface winds increasing northeast/east 10-15G23 knots as cool front moves in from the east. After 00Z winds becoming east/southeast 7-10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 447 AM MST Sat Mar 7 2026

Weak cool front pushing west through the fire zones this morning will bring a brief period of breezy east winds. Winds should diminish through this afternoon. Next Pacific storm over the northern Baja will track across far southern New Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. This will bring some showers to the area Monday and Tuesday. Gusty winds will develop Tuesday but higher humidity should alleviate more serious fire conditions. Dry and warm again Wednesday and Thursday.

Min RH: Lowlands 13-23% through Monday, increasing to 20-30% Tuesday, then back 13-20% Wednesday/Thursday. Mountains 15-25% through Monday, increasing to 30-45% Tuesday, then back 20-30% Wednesday/Thursday. Vent rates good-very good today and Sunday, very good-excellent Monday and Tuesday, then fair-good Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 76 50 82 / 0 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 40 71 45 78 / 20 20 10 10 Las Cruces 38 71 44 78 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 36 72 42 79 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 28 54 35 59 / 0 10 10 20 Truth or Consequences 39 72 45 76 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 38 66 42 70 / 0 0 10 30 Deming 40 74 43 79 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 42 72 43 75 / 0 0 10 20 West El Paso Metro 47 74 52 81 / 0 0 10 10 Dell City 36 73 41 82 / 0 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 43 78 48 85 / 20 10 10 10 Loma Linda 42 69 48 75 / 0 10 10 10 Fabens 46 78 48 84 / 10 10 10 10 Santa Teresa 41 74 46 79 / 0 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 44 73 50 79 / 0 10 10 10 Jornada Range 35 73 40 78 / 0 10 10 10 Hatch 35 75 41 80 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 43 75 47 80 / 0 0 10 10 Orogrande 38 72 42 78 / 0 10 10 10 Mayhill 30 66 37 71 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 30 64 37 69 / 0 10 10 20 Timberon 33 61 40 67 / 0 10 10 20 Winston 27 64 32 70 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 38 69 45 75 / 0 0 10 20 Spaceport 33 72 39 77 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 28 67 33 70 / 0 10 10 30 Hurley 36 69 40 72 / 0 0 10 20 Cliff 29 75 33 76 / 0 0 10 30 Mule Creek 25 71 30 72 / 0 0 10 30 Faywood 39 68 45 72 / 0 0 10 20 Animas 39 73 42 76 / 0 0 10 30 Hachita 40 72 42 76 / 0 0 10 20 Antelope Wells 39 73 42 76 / 10 0 10 20 Cloverdale 42 69 45 70 / 0 0 10 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.