textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026 - Isolated storm chances today, focusing to the south and west with possible gusty winds and dust.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns this weekend. - More widespread shower and thunderstorm chances return toward the start of July, favoring eastern areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The upper high will continue to weaken and push southeastward today, but enough moisture (afternoon dew points in the 40s) and instability is present to spark isolated showers and thunderstorms. Like yesterday, gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazard (dew pt depressions around 50 degrees), which may produce areas of blowing dust. Gusts to 50 mph are possible according to the 0z HREF, especially from Deming westward where storm coverage will be more widespread than eastern areas. Storm motion will be to the east today with some activity lingering through the evening along the Int'l border. Otherwise, light west winds are expected.

A large upper trough moves through the northern Rockies this weekend, forcing the subtropical high further east along with its moisture. Areas to the south and east will keep low storm chances through Sun as PWs remain AOA 1 inch. However, most of our area will be under the influence of the dry, southwesterly flow around the trough. Rain chances will be near zero outside of far west TX this weekend as breezy SW winds drop dew points to the 30s. The strongest winds are forecast to the north and west (15-25 mph, gusts to 35 mph) where the pressure gradient is tighter.

The upper high strengthens over the Ohio Valley by the middle of next week with persistent troughing over the Northwest. This will set up a nice tap of subtropical moisture into our area out of Mexico, likely focusing east of the RGV. Mean PWs are modeled to stay relatively unchanged between this weekend and into midweek, but this would be a favorable synoptic set-up for the monsoon. As of now, there is a low risk of flash flooding for eastern areas later in the period. Mostly dry conditions are forecast west of the RGV through midweek as modestly breezy SW winds persist. Temps continue their slow cooldown into next week to slightly below normal.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Isolated showers and storms develop west of KDMN this afternoon, progressing eastward towards the terminal. KDMN is most likely to see VCTS later today around 23z, but chances are still low (10-20%) of direct impacts. KELP also has a slight chance of TS nearby coming from the southwest, most likely from 2-5z this evening. Gusts to 30kts are possible from the convection with VIS reductions to 3 SM from BLDU. Any TS chances diminish after 6z tonight. Afternoon gusts to 20kts expected from W-SW, subsiding after sunset to AOB 10kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1035 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR THE GILA NATIONAL FOREST AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS

Fire weather concerns increase into the weekend as dry, southwesterly flow takes over much of the region. For today, isolated showers and storms develop, mainly in the eastern Gila and in SW New Mexico. Gusty and erratic winds over 40 mph are possible from this activity into the evening with not much rainfall expected. Otherwise, winds will be modestly breezy from W-SW this afternoon. Warm temperatures and very deep mixing are forecast today.

An upper trough moving into the northern Rockies results in breezy SW winds Sat and Sun, creating elevated to near critical fire wx conditions each afternoon. Areas to the north and west will see the strongest winds (15-25 mph, gusts to 35) with Sunday being a bit windier. Fuels will continue to worsen towards the 90th %-ile or higher this weekend. The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include FWZ112 since winds in Sierra County will be at least as strong as the SW Deserts each day with comparable RHs. Lighter winds are expected further S and E through Otero County and into far west TX. Recent rainfall, lower ERCs, and higher RHs will keep the Lincoln out of the RFW for now at least. Winds become lighter after Sun, but modest SW flow persists, keeping most of the area dry. Low rain/storm chances linger to the south and east into next week while temps slowly cool down.

Min RHs range from 15-30% today, then 12-25% this weekend. Vent rates will be mostly excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 101 76 100 / 20 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 68 96 68 94 / 20 20 20 20 Las Cruces 69 98 69 98 / 10 0 10 0 Alamogordo 70 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 54 76 55 75 / 10 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 69 98 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 64 91 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 68 100 68 100 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 97 67 96 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 99 75 98 / 20 0 10 10 Dell City 71 100 70 99 / 20 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 74 102 73 101 / 40 10 10 20 Loma Linda 69 93 69 92 / 20 0 10 10 Fabens 73 101 73 100 / 20 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 72 98 71 98 / 20 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 76 100 76 99 / 10 0 10 0 Jornada Range 68 99 69 98 / 10 0 0 0 Hatch 68 101 69 101 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 73 101 73 100 / 20 0 10 0 Orogrande 69 98 68 97 / 10 0 10 0 Mayhill 60 88 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 57 87 58 86 / 10 0 0 0 Timberon 55 85 56 85 / 10 0 10 0 Winston 59 89 59 88 / 10 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 96 67 95 / 10 0 0 0 Spaceport 64 98 65 97 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 58 91 58 90 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 64 94 64 94 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 64 97 63 96 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 63 92 62 91 / 10 0 0 0 Faywood 66 93 66 93 / 10 0 0 0 Animas 67 98 67 97 / 20 10 0 0 Hachita 66 97 66 96 / 20 10 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 97 68 96 / 20 10 10 0 Cloverdale 65 91 65 90 / 20 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM MDT Sunday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.