textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s, near daily records.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday. Storm limited mostly to the high terrain and western New Mexico. Dry conditions spread area wide over the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure aloft centered over the Four Corners will be the primary driver of our weather pattern over the next several days. Thunderstorm development through Friday will be mostly driven by recycled moisture under this upper high.

The main headline will be above normal temperatures, which looks to stay in place through the rest of August. Lowland highs consistently in the 98-102 degree range will run 8-10 degrees above normal for late August and near daily records. Currently no daily record for El Paso in the forecast, but were only 1-2 degrees off most days going forward.

For Thursday, short-term models resolve an axis of more favorable moisture (PWs 1.0-1.2) across eastern and south-central New Mexico. Daytime heating will be enough to produce isolated (20-30%) showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Best chances will focus over the southwestern rim of the Sacramento Mountains (Timberon area) and Black Range/Mimbres Valley where terrain lift is strongest under weak mid-level flow out of the east. Cant rule out spotty rain showers for lowland zones, including El Paso and west Texas. Coverage will be sparce and storms will be fairly weak due to model CAPE in the 500-800 J/kg range. Storm motions will move WSW at 10-15 mph, likely quick enough to reduce flood risk somewhat. Isolated rain chances will continue over the high terrain and western New Mexico on Friday, but much of the Rio Grande Valley will be dry.

Upper high drifts east directly over the Southern High Plains this weekend, leading to a near-total shut off of moisture flow and the end of storm chances area wide. Precipitable water values 0.8-1.0 will fall below the climate normals and strong subsident flow within the 400-600mb layer aloft will hinder updraft development. The primary monsoonal plume will be pushed west across Arizona and the Colorado River valley. This pattern looks to remain in place throughout next week, leading to an extended period of late-August dryness and heat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Recent model runs have backed off on convection this afternoon, but isolated TS remain possible for all terminals (10-20% chance) from 21-0z. Outflow gusts to 30kts are possible. Any convection should dissipate after 0z. Winds will be AOB 8kts outside of outflows, shifting from E to N.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 532 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the weekend. Moisture remains over southern NM today around the upper high, sparking scattered showers and storms over area mountains this afternoon. Storm motion will be slow to the southwest again. Gusty outflow winds over 40 mph and brief downpours are possible. Isolated convection is forecast for the lowlands. Storm chances diminish late this week, favoring area mountains, becoming mainly dry by Sunday as the upper high parks over the Southern High Plains. Prevailing winds will be light to modestly breezy from the southeast. Temperatures remain above normal into next week with lowland highs around 100F.

Min RHs range from 12-20% for the lowlands through the weekend, 20-35% for mtns. Vent rates will be good to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 102 75 102 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 67 98 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 100 70 100 / 20 0 0 0 Alamogordo 71 98 70 98 / 10 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 54 75 54 76 / 10 30 0 20 Truth or Consequences 72 99 72 99 / 20 0 10 0 Silver City 63 93 65 93 / 20 10 10 10 Deming 71 101 72 101 / 20 0 0 0 Lordsburg 70 100 71 100 / 20 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 77 102 77 101 / 10 0 0 0 Dell City 70 100 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 104 75 104 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 95 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 Fabens 73 102 74 102 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 100 73 100 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 101 75 101 / 20 0 0 0 Jornada Range 71 100 71 100 / 20 0 0 0 Hatch 72 103 72 103 / 20 0 10 0 Columbus 75 102 75 101 / 20 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 99 70 99 / 10 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 87 58 88 / 10 30 0 10 Mescalero 58 86 57 87 / 10 40 0 20 Timberon 57 85 56 85 / 10 20 0 10 Winston 62 90 62 90 / 20 30 10 20 Hillsboro 70 98 70 98 / 20 10 10 10 Spaceport 69 99 70 99 / 20 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 91 58 91 / 20 30 10 30 Hurley 65 96 67 96 / 20 10 10 0 Cliff 66 100 67 100 / 20 10 10 10 Mule Creek 64 96 65 97 / 20 10 10 10 Faywood 68 95 68 95 / 20 10 10 0 Animas 70 100 71 101 / 20 0 10 0 Hachita 70 99 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 70 99 70 99 / 20 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 95 68 95 / 20 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.