textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1027 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

- Critical fire weather conditions through Monday due to strong winds and very low humidity. Red Flag Warnings in effect for most of New Mexico and West Texas.

- Lighter winds, but still breezy conditions during the afternoons, Tuesday through the rest of the week. While some low level moisture will try to work in from the east during the overnights, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will mainly be focused east of the area.

..REMAINDER OF THE WEEK

Dry westerly flow looks to win out for the remainder of the week with upper level ridging building in across the Desert Southwest. Temperatures during the second half of the forecast period will hover right around the seasonal average for Memorial Day Weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. FEW to SCT at 25kft will continue through the late evening and early overnight hours, becoming SKC by day break. Winds will be breezy through the TAF period, out of the west/southwest at 13-18 knots with gusts to 23-28 knots. LLWS will be possible tonight for KELP and KDMN as winds above the surface remain gusty.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026

Winds have been slowly increasing across the area this afternoon, with some downslope enhancement in places, and blockages in others. Winds aloft will increase tonight. For the Sacramento Mountains, high-res model runs and Wind Ninja indicate winds will diminish for a few hours after sunset, and become rather variable with direction. On the Seven Cabins fire, light ESE winds may actually develop along the NE flank of the Capitan Ridge, with WSW winds persisting elsewhere, and stronger SW winds along the ridgetop. But between Midnight and 2 AM, strong SW downslope flow looks to return, and Red Flag conditions are likely to return to favored downslope regions. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning, and in the Sacramento zone, there is no break from today's RFW, though the lull and variability between sunset and midnight is noted.

Gusty winds will return by mid-morning across the wider area, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for much of the day Monday across the remainder of the area, except for Hudspeth County, as winds there look to taper off very quickly as you head south and east of El Paso.

A backdoor cold front dropping down the Plains on Tuesday won't push west of the higher terrain, but will interrupt and weaken the pressure gradient a bit. We'll see the winds diminish as a result, though SSW winds will remain breezy in far SW New Mexico, with some gusts around 25-30 mph for a few hours in the late afternoon.

Dryline sloshing will try to bring east winds and enhanced moisture into far eastern areas each morning through the middle of the week, but thunderstorm chances look to stay out over the eastern Plains of New Mexico and the Transpecos Region in Texas. Breezy SW winds will continue in the afternoon, strongest to the west of the Rio Grande, and flirting with, but likely falling short of the lower end of Red Flag criteria through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 65 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 56 89 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 86 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 56 86 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 63 43 67 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 84 55 86 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 76 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 55 88 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 84 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 61 96 61 97 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 93 61 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 58 88 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 88 53 90 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 59 89 59 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 86 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 75 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 72 46 75 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 75 42 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 81 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 54 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 47 75 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 80 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 48 77 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 79 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 84 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 53 77 51 81 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT Monday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM MDT Monday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.