textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Most of the area will stay dry on Monday, but we will still have a chance across portions of Hudspeth County.

- A few days of drier weather is expected midweek before rain chances return Thursday into Friday.

- Typical late-October temperatures, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Another night, another round of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain. The good news is that the upper level trough and surface convergence that has lead to multiple nights of severe weather are finally moving to the east, but not before we could see one more round of strong thunderstorms on Monday. The main threat for these strong thunderstorms will be in Hudspeth County. Most of the region will stay rain free on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will run a few degrees below average.

For Tuesday and Wednesday we will see drier air move into the area on a zonal (west to east) flow aloft. We look to stay dry both days with high temperatures climbing a few degrees above average by Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon our upper level flow will begin to turn more to the southeast as our next upper level trough approaches the west coast. Our precipitable water values (PW's) will drop below 0.5 for most of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. But then on Thursday, we will see another surge of moisture from the south and southeast and we will see PW's jump to around 0.80 to 0.90 by Thursday. With the moisture in place and the next upper level trough approaching the area will be enough to give us a chance for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. On Friday the main energy from the upper level trough will sweep across New Mexico and that will give us a good chance for thunderstorms. With the well above average PW's we could see some heavy rain makers which can lead to isolated flash flooding. High temperatures for both Thursday and Friday will run near seasonal averages. Right now next Saturday and Sunday look dry, with high temperatures near average.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A late night round of thunderstorms developed and moved across KELP. Those storms are moving to the northeast. For the rest of tonight will we will have unlimited ceilings and light winds. On Monday, we could see a few thunderstorms develop but they will stay east of KELP. We will have generally unlimited ceilings on Monday with light south winds and our winds will be light and variable beginning Monday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dry conditions for Gila NF, but scattered thunderstorms are expected again across Lincoln NF this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and localized flooding. Prevailing wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph, with Good vent rates today. Lighter winds Monday/Tuesday will keep vent rates Poor to Fair through most of the afternoon hours.

Moisture shifts further east early this week, leading to a brief window of dry conditions area wide. Rain chances return Thursday into next weekend, leading to another round of wetting precipitation over the forested areas. ERCs are very low at the moment, so no fire danger expected into early November.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 74 56 75 / 30 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 53 71 50 73 / 80 40 20 0 Las Cruces 53 72 52 74 / 10 0 10 0 Alamogordo 52 71 50 72 / 40 20 10 10 Cloudcroft 39 53 37 53 / 50 30 10 10 Truth or Consequences 50 69 50 73 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 43 68 46 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 74 52 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 74 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 74 58 75 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 54 71 52 73 / 90 50 20 10 Fort Hancock 60 79 57 81 / 70 30 20 0 Loma Linda 52 67 51 68 / 70 30 10 0 Fabens 58 77 56 78 / 60 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 73 55 74 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 73 55 75 / 20 10 10 10 Jornada Range 52 72 52 73 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 52 75 52 77 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 54 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 70 51 72 / 40 20 10 0 Mayhill 44 63 42 66 / 60 40 10 0 Mescalero 43 63 42 63 / 30 20 10 10 Timberon 41 60 40 61 / 70 40 10 10 Winston 37 64 40 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 70 49 74 / 0 0 10 0 Spaceport 49 70 49 72 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 36 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 71 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 75 49 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 71 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 46 70 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 77 52 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 75 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.