textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1026 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards.

- Warm temperatures (near seasonable) Sunday, then cooling trend with high temperatures well below normal the rest of the week.

- Thunderstorm chances and coverage will increase Friday into the weekend with heavy rainfall and flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Upper high remains centered over far northern New Mexico this evening. To the south, a deformation zone extends from northern Louisiana across south central Texas and over the northern Baja. This feature is limiting most of the deeper sub-tropical moisture only as far north as this line. North of that line over our CWA, moisture is not as deep or extensive, with perhaps a weaker deformation zone extending east-west across the central CWA, limited our convection this afternoon to mostly the northern counties. HRRR handled this pretty well, and ends most activity by around midnight. However the model does bring down storms currently over northern Lincoln and Chavez Counties across eastern Otero County from around 10pm-2am. Will keep an eye on that area.

Sunday...main deformation zone only drifts north slightly, with attendant deep moisture following it. It perhaps enters the CWA late night; however moisture over the CWA for bulk of Sunday does increase a bit (PWs .9-1.1 inches), so expect another round of scattered afternoon mountain thunderstorms and isolated, mainly evening, lowland thunderstorms.

Monday and Tuesday...current GFS run shows the deformation zone dissipating or drifting north of the CWA, allowing deep moisture to move over our area. This would suggest wide coverage of thunderstorm across the area, and with PWs of 1.2-1.5 inches, some flood potential would exist. Unfortunately, the NAM12 and ECMWF are less bullish on that deep sub-tropical moisture moving in. So grids will reflect a sort of compromise between the two solutions. Good chances of rain but not widespread, nor serious flood risk.

Wednesday and Thursday...cut-off low from polar jet begins retrograding back toward our area as an inverted trough. Both GFS/ECMWF similar with this feature and dampen much of the convective activity with subsidence ahead of the trough. Storms mainly isolated over the mountains.

Friday through Sunday...moisture begins increasing well above 1 inch (maybe as high as 1.4 inches). GFS even shows some moisture feeding in from tropical feature off the Baja. Inverted trough remains over the CWA (GFS), or drifts slowly west over the Sonoran Desert (ECMWF). Either solution should mean increasing chances of rain all areas, and given the PWs, flooding will be a threat.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Generally VFR conditions through the period with SCT100 SCT- BKN250. Isolated BKN060CB -TSRA west of the Rio Grande Valley; should dissipated shortly. A few thunderstorms possible over the Sacramento Mtns until around 08-09Z. Gusty winds to 35-45 knots with a few of these storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Fire concerns will be decreasing. Today will be our driest and hottest day with highs about 5 degrees above normal and afternoon humidity in the mid to upper teens. There will be enough moisture for additional shower and thunderstorms with similar coverage to yesterday. Strong winds will be the main concern with any storms. After today, highs decrease while moisture increases. Min RH values will be the upper 20s to lower 30s with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances along with a risk for flash flooding. Venting today will range very good to excellent but will gradually decrease through the week ahead. Winds, outside of thunderstorms, will generally top out around 10 MPH each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 97 74 92 / 0 10 20 40 Sierra Blanca 66 91 64 85 / 0 0 20 60 Las Cruces 70 94 68 91 / 10 20 10 20 Alamogordo 69 93 67 91 / 0 50 20 30 Cloudcroft 51 73 50 69 / 10 50 20 50 Truth or Consequences 72 94 70 92 / 10 20 40 10 Silver City 65 89 62 86 / 30 30 40 20 Deming 69 97 68 93 / 20 10 30 10 Lordsburg 68 95 68 92 / 30 10 40 10 West El Paso Metro 77 96 75 91 / 0 10 20 30 Dell City 69 94 67 89 / 0 10 20 50 Fort Hancock 74 98 72 92 / 0 0 30 60 Loma Linda 68 89 66 84 / 0 10 10 40 Fabens 74 98 72 93 / 0 0 20 40 Santa Teresa 73 95 71 90 / 0 10 20 30 White Sands HQ 76 95 74 92 / 0 30 10 20 Jornada Range 72 94 69 92 / 10 20 10 10 Hatch 71 97 69 95 / 10 20 30 10 Columbus 75 98 72 91 / 10 0 20 20 Orogrande 70 93 68 90 / 0 20 10 20 Mayhill 56 82 54 77 / 20 40 40 60 Mescalero 56 83 54 80 / 10 50 20 50 Timberon 54 80 52 76 / 0 40 30 50 Winston 61 88 60 84 / 30 10 40 10 Hillsboro 69 92 66 89 / 20 20 50 10 Spaceport 68 94 66 91 / 10 30 30 10 Lake Roberts 59 90 60 88 / 30 40 30 30 Hurley 65 92 64 89 / 20 20 40 10 Cliff 61 94 63 93 / 20 50 40 30 Mule Creek 59 90 60 89 / 20 50 40 40 Faywood 66 91 65 88 / 20 20 40 10 Animas 68 95 67 91 / 50 0 40 20 Hachita 68 94 66 91 / 40 0 30 10 Antelope Wells 68 94 66 90 / 50 0 50 40 Cloverdale 64 89 63 85 / 70 0 60 40

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.