textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 407 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Complex interaction of upper level systems and a back door cold front will lead to precipitation across the region through Sunday.

- 6 to 10 inches of snow with ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch is forecast for the Sacramento Mountains. Areas above 9500 feet will see higher snowfall totals.

- Up to 3 inches of snow with up to 0.20" of ice is possible for Hudspeth County with areas of freezing rain possible as early as Saturday Morning. - There is an increasing risk for some accumulating snow for the Tularosa and Rio Grande Valleys Sunday Morning, including El Paso. This area has the highest uncertainty for snow and ice totals.

- Bitterly cold temperatures with wind chill values in the single digits for eastern areas and as cold as 15 below for the Sacramento Mountains Sunday and Monday mornings.

- Chilly and dry early next week behind the storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1025 PM MST Fri Jan 23 2026

The major winter storm that is set to affect a large chunk of the country is underway with the center of the UL low still off the Baja Coast, pushing anomalously moist flow ahead of it. Multiple small scale impulses ahead of the low are aiding in precipitation production including isolated thunderstorms. This trend will continue through Sunday morning via multiple waves. Expect on and off precipitation throughout the night with more sustained precip expected by Saturday afternoon lasting well into the overnight hours before precipitation becomes more scattered as an impulse now over Southern ID merges with our Baja low and exits into the Plains by mid-day Sunday, taking any remaining precipitation with it.

We are still on track to receive a generous amount of rainfall from this system. NBM 50th percentile brings 0.75-1.00"+ of additional liquid to areas east of the Continental Divide, trending down to about 0.60" for areas closer to the AZ border and the Gila. There will be locally higher totals for anywhere that sees an embedded thunderstorm. The million dollar question remains, "how much will fall as freezing or frozen precipitation?" Well, that has changed. True to form forecast guidance has done a miserable job with the progression of the arctic air. Arctic air has already spilled into Lincoln County with temperatures hovering around 30 degrees. Snow was falling in Cloudcroft. It's a bit difficult to say the precip type in Mayhill, but the sky cameras there show a layer of ice on them. Models have caught onto this colder trend showing much of the day Saturday with a mixture of freezing rain and snow for the Sacramento Mountains. Given recent trends, I decided to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory in the Sacramento Mountains to a Winter Storm Warning for 6 to 10 inches of snow plus up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulations, especially along East Slope areas toward Chaves and Lincoln County. I also moved the start time back to 9PM, which means it is valid at the time of this writing. Temperatures were tricky as well since the NBM has a time lag, and what's in the official forecast on weather.gov may be a tad too warm. Nevertheless, there may be a variety of precip types for the mountains throughout the morning and early afternoon before the arctic air pushes west once and for good later in the afternoon.

Into the lowlands, trends are colder and therefore snowier and icier. Latest guidance shows sub-freezing air entrenching itself into portions of Hudspeth County for Saturday, meaning a longer window for freezing rain. The quicker push to the west and colder air behind it has ramped up snowfall totals in all deterministic solutions as well as ice accumulations. Most deterministic guidance now brings snow well into the Tularosa Basin with cold air damming along the Franklins before cold air spills south into the Rio Grande Valley, with some guidance giving these areas 1 to 3 inches for the Tularosa basin and up to an inch on the Rio Grande side, including Central and East El Paso, along with some ice accumulation from freezing rain. It is foolish to chase models given the abrupt reversal in trends, so I did not change any winter weather headlines for the lowlands except to up the wording on the existing advisory. If trends continue though, more winter weather headlines or upgrades may be needed. Keep checking back with the forecast.

In addition to the snow and ice, it will be cold. Our eastern areas will see lows well into the teens and single digits. Factoring in wind, wind chill values will be as low as 5 in Hudspeth County and 15 below across the Sacramento Mountains. Those values are near Extreme Cold Warning criteria. As such, I went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for Sunday and Monday mornings for much of Hudspeth County and the Sacramento Mountains. Elsewhere, lows will drop into the teens and 20s, especially Monday Morning. For Sunday morning's low it will depend on far west and how strong the cold front pushes. Tuesday morning will be very cold as well, so more Advisories may be needed on future forecast updates.

Following our winter storm, the rest of the week, Monday onward, will see quasi-zonal flow aloft, which will allow temperatures to gradually recover though the entire period will be below average. Finally, by Friday, both the GFS and ECMWF show a compact low that will bring us another chance for precip and maybe some wind.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 407 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

Mostly MVFR to occasional IFR conditions can be expected today and tonight across the area, with SCT-BKN060 OVC150 layers to 300. Scattered OVC040 6SM -SHRA with occasional BKN-OVC010 3-5SM SHRA BR. Over the Sacramento Mtns...widespread OVC030 3-5SM -SN with isolated OVC010 1SM SN BR. After 18Z...isolated snow showers developing over lowlands of Otero and Hudspeth Counties. These snow showers possibly spreading to El Paso and Sierra Counties after 03Z tonight. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning becoming west 7-10 knots west of the RG Valley this afternoon, and east/southeast 8-12 knots to the east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 407 AM MST Sat Jan 24 2026

No fire weather concerns through this forecast period. Lowland rain showers and mountain snow will continue today, with some snow developing over the lowlands from the RG Valley east late tonight. All precipitation should end around noon Sunday, with temperatures turning chilly. Dry Monday through Thursday with temperatures gradually warming back to near normal. No significant winds are expected through the period, leading to rather unfavorable vent rates.

Min RH: Lowlands 65-80% today decreasing to 30-45% Sunday through Wednesday. Mountains 80-95% today decreasing to 20-30% Gila/Black Range Sunday through Wednesday, and 35-50% Sacramento Mtns Sunday through Wednesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 30 44 24 46 / 100 80 0 0 Sierra Blanca 21 32 15 36 / 100 90 0 0 Las Cruces 30 44 22 45 / 90 70 0 0 Alamogordo 23 39 15 41 / 100 80 0 0 Cloudcroft 13 23 8 28 / 100 80 0 0 Truth or Consequences 27 44 23 46 / 80 50 0 0 Silver City 29 45 22 46 / 80 50 0 0 Deming 35 52 24 51 / 80 60 0 0 Lordsburg 34 51 23 50 / 80 40 0 0 West El Paso Metro 32 43 27 43 / 100 80 0 0 Dell City 17 31 7 32 / 90 80 0 0 Fort Hancock 28 42 19 46 / 100 90 0 0 Loma Linda 21 33 19 34 / 100 90 0 0 Fabens 29 42 20 44 / 100 90 0 0 Santa Teresa 33 44 23 43 / 100 80 0 0 White Sands HQ 29 43 24 43 / 90 80 0 0 Jornada Range 29 44 18 45 / 90 70 0 0 Hatch 31 49 21 50 / 80 60 0 0 Columbus 40 53 27 50 / 90 70 0 0 Orogrande 23 38 16 40 / 100 80 0 0 Mayhill 8 34 9 40 / 100 80 0 0 Mescalero 13 33 10 37 / 100 80 0 0 Timberon 13 29 10 33 / 100 80 0 0 Winston 20 41 13 42 / 80 50 0 0 Hillsboro 27 46 23 46 / 80 50 0 0 Spaceport 24 44 17 46 / 80 60 0 0 Lake Roberts 27 44 16 46 / 80 50 0 0 Hurley 29 48 21 47 / 70 50 0 0 Cliff 28 52 15 53 / 80 40 0 0 Mule Creek 29 47 11 50 / 80 30 0 0 Faywood 32 47 25 46 / 70 60 0 0 Animas 37 53 25 51 / 90 40 0 0 Hachita 36 52 23 49 / 90 50 0 0 Antelope Wells 38 54 26 51 / 100 60 0 0 Cloverdale 37 48 30 46 / 90 60 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Sunday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Monday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Sunday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains.

NM...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for Otero Mesa.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Sunday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM MST Monday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Sunday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.