textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Scattered rain showers tonight through Tuesday with a few thunderstorms possible. Breezy later on Tuesday.

- No chance of rain from Wednesday onward.

- Temperatures fall to below normal Tuesday; then back well above normal into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A more active period is expected in the short-term as our Baja low makes its way through northern MX. Today will be a warmer, dry day with modest S winds developing this afternoon. The slight chance of thunderstorms in Hudspeth that was forecast for later in the day has diminished as dew points are modeled to be mostly in the 30s. We remain under diffluent flow aloft during the day, but with little moisture to work with.

That changes tonight as the upper low creeps eastward into Sonora and increases moisture levels ahead of it (dew points into the 40s). The favorable upper-level dynamics will allow for scattered showers to develop across the area late this evening. A few rumbles of thunder are possible within this activity into the overnight as they move generally S to N.

The next wave of showers arrives early Tue AM in the Bootheel, progressing NE through the morning and early afternoon. This is associated with the core of the low as it scoots thru N Chihuahua during the day. Again, isolated embedded t-storms may be seen with these showers as instability will be lacking. Generally, rain rates will be light and about 0.25" of rain is forecast for the event. Higher amounts are possible within heavier showers and thunderstorms, and most likely for W Grant Co (0.5" or more); lower totals into Hudspeth Co. The best chance for rain in El Paso will be in the late morning, diminishing through the afternoon. Rain chances overall come to an end Tue evening as the low ejects to the east.

For snowfall, only elevations above 8500ft will have a chance at any accumulations, which would come on Tue with that second wave of precip. Areas around Sunspot could see a coating if the snow is able to stick. Breezy post-frontal winds are forecast Tue PM into Wed AM, especially for east mtn slopes. A strong sfc low develops Tue afternoon in SE Colorado, setting up a respectable pressure gradient across the CWA through the night. W winds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph are forecast Tue afternoon, a bit stronger out east. Since the winds will come after the expected rainfall, blowing dust is not really a concern.

Lingering breeziness is forecast for Wed, otherwise it'll be dry and warmer. Light NW flow aloft takes over for the second half of the week with an upper ridge to the west. Generally light winds and dry conditions are expected into next weekend with no wx hazards. A backdoor front will attempt to poke in early next week and bring breezy E winds, but not much else of note.

Temperatures climb to about 10 degrees above normal today, falling to below average on Tue behind the Pacific front. We go right back to above normal Wed, continuing the warming trend through next weekend up to near-record levels. We're still looking at the potential for historically hot weather for mid-March (3/18-21) with highs soaring into the 90s for El Paso.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions into the evening before isolated -SHRA develop in the evening, moving from south to north into the overnight. That is the first wave of showers, followed by a better chance of rain late in the period for all terminals. Both showery periods will have a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms. CIGs could fall to MVFR thresholds Tue AM in heavier showers, otherwise mainly VFR. Occasional gusts this afternoon up to 20kts from S-SE, more frequent gusts after 15z Tue from W, reaching 20-25kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 AM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the forecast period. A storm system brings scattered rain showers Mon night thru Tue, knocking ERCs back down towards the 50th percentile. Winds get a bit breezier this afternoon from the south ahead of the system with not much change in humidity from yesterday. As moisture increases tonight ahead of the low, scattered rain showers develop late this evening with a few thunderstorms possible. More widespread shower activity for Tue AM, diminishing during the afternoon and evening. W winds increase behind the front Tue PM, staying breezy through the night before subsiding on Wed. Calmer and dry conditions are forecast beginning Wed as temperatures warm to well above normal by next weekend. Rain chances will be near zero and no strong winds are in the forecast for the second half of the week. Fuels return to their drying trend on Wed, becoming more of an issue through mid-March.

Min RHs range from 10-25% today and Wed-Thu, 35-65% on Tue. Ventilation will be very good to excellent Mon, then fair to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 51 65 49 78 / 50 80 10 0 Sierra Blanca 45 65 43 73 / 40 60 10 0 Las Cruces 44 62 42 76 / 60 80 10 0 Alamogordo 45 65 39 77 / 50 70 10 0 Cloudcroft 35 44 31 55 / 50 70 10 0 Truth or Consequences 48 66 47 76 / 40 70 10 0 Silver City 41 54 39 70 / 80 90 20 0 Deming 46 64 44 77 / 80 90 20 0 Lordsburg 44 60 39 73 / 90 70 10 0 West El Paso Metro 50 63 49 77 / 50 70 10 0 Dell City 44 70 40 77 / 20 50 0 0 Fort Hancock 48 71 46 81 / 30 70 10 0 Loma Linda 46 59 43 71 / 40 70 10 0 Fabens 49 66 47 79 / 40 80 10 0 Santa Teresa 47 62 46 76 / 40 80 10 0 White Sands HQ 50 64 49 77 / 50 70 10 0 Jornada Range 42 63 39 77 / 60 70 20 0 Hatch 45 67 41 79 / 60 70 20 0 Columbus 48 63 48 77 / 50 90 10 0 Orogrande 45 63 40 74 / 40 70 10 0 Mayhill 40 60 39 66 / 40 70 10 0 Mescalero 37 57 34 66 / 50 70 20 0 Timberon 39 53 36 63 / 40 70 10 0 Winston 34 59 36 70 / 60 80 10 0 Hillsboro 44 63 45 75 / 60 80 20 0 Spaceport 42 65 39 77 / 60 70 20 0 Lake Roberts 37 55 36 70 / 80 90 20 0 Hurley 40 57 39 71 / 80 80 20 0 Cliff 41 61 36 76 / 90 90 10 0 Mule Creek 40 57 36 71 / 90 80 10 0 Faywood 44 57 42 73 / 80 80 20 0 Animas 45 61 41 74 / 90 80 10 0 Hachita 44 60 41 73 / 80 80 10 0 Antelope Wells 43 59 38 74 / 80 80 10 0 Cloverdale 42 53 38 69 / 80 80 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.