textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1008 PM MDT Sun Oct 26 2025

- Above average temperatures persist Monday and Tuesday. A cold front brings highs below normal by Wednesday.

- Temperatures rebound back above normal Friday into the weekend.

- Rain chances near zero through the week ahead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1008 PM MDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Dry, zonal west flow aloft continues over the Desert Southwest tonight and Monday with continued above normal temperatures Monday. Sub-tropical high over Mexico then begins building north over Arizona and the Great Basin while Canadian low digs deeply down over the Central Plains. This will allow a strong high pressure surge at the surface down the front range Tuesday, with the attendant back door cold front moving into our area. Winds begin turning northerly Tuesday with the initial surge but the cool air lags well behind. Thus, Tuesday will see some cooling but remain above normal. The cooler air filters in late Tuesday night and Wednesday, with about a 10-15 degree cool down for Wednesday, though quick look at airmass source shows quite mild temps for this time of the year.

Little, if any significant impacts with this front, but a couple of things to watch. Models have been showing a varying degree of low clouds/drizzle along the eastern Sacs mid-day Tuesday. Will let next shift further evaluate this (whether to include in next set of grids). Gusty winds will also accompany the front late Tuesday night. West slopes of terrain across Hudspeth, El Paso, and Dona Ana Counties could see wind gusts of 25-35 mph late Tuesday night/Wed morning, with those winds spreading to Luna and Hidalgo Counties Wednesday afternoon.

More zonal flow returns Thursday and Friday for a quick warmup. Western U.S. ridge builds up again for the weekend, with pattern suggesting another back door cool front, though models don't show much of any cold advection.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM MDT Sun Oct 26 2025

VFR conditions through the period, with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots, increasing after 18Z to west 10-15G25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 936 AM MDT Sun Oct 26 2025

Elevated fire danger each day due to critical min RHs. 20 foot winds will be generally 5-10 mph each afternoon. Monday afternoon, Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be the breeziest days out of the week ahead. A potent cold front is expected to push in Tuesday and Wednesday bringing breezy easterly winds to the area as it pushes east to west. Expect a 10-15 degree drop in temperatures by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures warm up into the weekend.

Critical min RHs (10-15%) will be seen each afternoon across much of the lowlands throughout the work week. Wednesday afternoon will have the highest min RHs out of the week ahead but generally 13-20% across the lowlands.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 84 55 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 79 48 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 83 50 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 79 48 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 61 38 56 24 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 80 50 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 74 46 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 84 48 81 43 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 79 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 82 56 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 84 46 75 37 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 87 53 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 75 50 71 40 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 84 52 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 82 50 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 82 55 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 80 48 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 84 48 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 84 52 82 46 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 78 47 75 40 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 74 42 63 26 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 72 41 67 28 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 70 41 64 27 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 76 40 71 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 81 49 76 40 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 79 47 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 74 34 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 76 45 77 39 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 81 38 82 41 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 76 32 77 40 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 77 48 75 41 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 80 48 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 80 47 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 82 49 79 44 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 76 50 75 46 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.