textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures for Saturday and Sunday will be near or a little above average.

- Next Pacific system due in Monday will bring a chance of thunderstorms to most of the area Monday, with gusty winds and localized dust possible. A few strong to severe thunderstorms can't be ruled out, especially east of the Rio Grande.

- Temperatures will be near normal on Monday; otherwise cooling down with temperatures a little below average mid portion of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Fri May 22 2026

We will have a quiet weekend of weather as an area of upper level high pressure slowly builds across the region. High temperatures on Saturday will run near average, while Sunday's highs will run a few degrees above average. We should have a very nice weekend. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the nice weather will hold together for Memorial Day.

On Monday, at the surface a weak back door cold front will push across the region. While this front will have little impact on our temperatures, it will usher in some moisture. Precipitable water values (PWs) will be near seasonal averages at around 0.50 inches, but as the moisture moves in on Monday we will see PWs jump up to around an inch which well above average. Then aloft we will have an approaching upper level trough which will help bring in some instability aloft along with a decent amount of diffluence (spreading out of air aloft, drawing air up from the surface). The combination of the upper level trough and the moisture surge at the surface will lead to a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms east of the Rio Grande could be strong as the southeast surface winds interact with the southwest winds aloft. Right now the best chances for rain look to be in the late afternoon into Monday evening. High temperatures on Monday will be near seasonal averages.

After Monday the upper level trough will move off to the northeast and we will see a zonal (west to east) flow develop across the region. This pattern will keep us dry and our high temperatures will run a few degrees below average. Another upper level trough will give us a glancing blow on Thursday, which may give us breezy afternoon winds. The weather looks nice into the start of next weekend. Still no sign of any 100 degrees days as we finish out May.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions through the period with skies SKC to FEW. Winds out of the west at 8-13 knots, becoming less than 10 knots by 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 503 AM MDT Sat May 23 2026

Dry air remains in place across the region with near-elevated to elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Min RH values will be below 15 percent areawide, elevations above 8000 feet over the Sacramento Mountains will be between 15 to 20 percent. Temperatures this afternoon will trend 1 to 3 degrees warmer than yesterday. With upper level ridge building overhead, surface pressure gradient at the surface will relax. Winds will be light to low-end breezy out of the southwest at 7-12 mph this afternoon. Deep afternoon mixing of 12,000-13,000 feet AGL will promote very good smoke ventilations rates.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 70 Sierra Blanca 56 89 59 89 / 0 0 0 20 Las Cruces 54 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 70 Alamogordo 60 91 62 90 / 0 0 0 40 Cloudcroft 44 69 46 68 / 10 0 0 60 Truth or Consequences 59 90 61 85 / 0 0 0 80 Silver City 53 84 56 78 / 0 0 0 70 Deming 55 94 59 90 / 0 0 0 50 Lordsburg 55 89 60 84 / 0 0 10 40 West El Paso Metro 63 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 70 Dell City 55 92 57 91 / 10 0 0 30 Fort Hancock 61 96 66 96 / 0 0 0 50 Loma Linda 59 86 62 85 / 0 0 0 50 Fabens 59 95 64 95 / 0 0 0 70 Santa Teresa 57 91 62 89 / 0 0 0 70 White Sands HQ 66 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 70 Jornada Range 55 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 70 Hatch 56 94 60 90 / 0 0 0 70 Columbus 61 93 66 90 / 0 0 0 60 Orogrande 57 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 60 Mayhill 49 81 51 79 / 10 0 0 50 Mescalero 48 80 50 78 / 10 0 0 70 Timberon 46 77 48 75 / 0 0 0 40 Winston 49 83 50 76 / 0 0 0 80 Hillsboro 58 89 60 83 / 0 0 0 80 Spaceport 54 90 57 86 / 0 0 0 70 Lake Roberts 48 85 52 79 / 10 0 0 70 Hurley 51 87 55 82 / 0 0 0 60 Cliff 51 90 55 84 / 0 0 0 60 Mule Creek 50 86 54 79 / 0 0 0 60 Faywood 54 86 57 81 / 0 0 0 60 Animas 56 89 60 86 / 0 0 10 40 Hachita 56 90 61 86 / 0 0 10 40 Antelope Wells 56 89 60 87 / 0 0 0 30 Cloverdale 55 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.