textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Extremely hot temperatures Friday with triple digits common across the desert lowlands. Forecast high of 108F for El Paso, 106F for Las Cruces, and 109F to 110F in the Lower Valley.

- Scattered severe storms possible Saturday afternoon with damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and flash flooding possible.

- Highs will be cooler over the weekend, but triple digits return early next week. Expect continued daily thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper high will continue to spin over the desert southwest Friday. Still have plenty of moisture across the area for another round of monsoonal thunderstorms even with the upper high right over us. Hi- res guidance is showing a bit better coverage for storms tomorrow with scattered storms possible everywhere, even in the desert lowlands later that afternoon. In addition, Friday will be the hottest day of the week ahead with a forecast high of 108F for El Paso. Basically all zones except the area mountains will be under a Heat Advisory tomorrow. Heading into Saturday, an active thunderstorm day looks to be ahead. A cutoff low will dive south and east over the mid-western states Saturday which will spill in a cold front into the area. High pressure will be shunted to the west over AZ that day leaving us under northerly flow. SPC is highlighting much of Otero county, northeast portions of Dona Ana and eastern portion of Sierra county in the Marginal Risk (level 1/5). Severe hail, severe wind gusts, and flash flooding will be the primary hazards. In addition, WPC has the same general area under a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for flash flooding Saturday.

Sunday through mid-week next week the upper high will continue to meander over the desert southwest. Slightly cooler over the weekend but temperatures start rising back up to triple digits Monday through Wednesday. Continued daily thunderstorm chances each afternoon with the area mountains and western locations border Arizona will be favored for storm activity.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Storms are starting to diminish and run out of energy. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms may continue the next couple hours before fizzling out. Calm and quiet conditions overnight with light winds. Another round of thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon where all terminals will have a chance to see a storm.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Friday is continuing to look like at least very close to the hottest day of the year with the lowlands all over 100 degrees. Even with these temperatures, the lowlands will keep RH's above 10% and the mountains in the 20s and 30s. Northeasterly flow will be developing and bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms areawide Friday afternoon/evening with even greater coverage and rainfall amounts on Saturday. Cooler temperatures and higher RH's will move in for the weekend with generally dry conditions Sunday except in the mountains. For early next week, we will return to weather similar to the last week with highs in the upper 90s to around 105 with thunderstorm chances generally focused west of the Divide.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 108 78 99 / 0 40 50 40 Sierra Blanca 69 105 71 94 / 0 10 10 20 Las Cruces 73 106 73 98 / 20 40 50 50 Alamogordo 74 105 71 97 / 10 30 30 50 Cloudcroft 56 81 53 72 / 10 40 30 90 Truth or Consequences 75 104 75 98 / 10 20 20 30 Silver City 67 98 67 92 / 20 30 30 70 Deming 74 107 75 100 / 20 20 30 30 Lordsburg 72 105 74 100 / 20 20 20 40 West El Paso Metro 79 108 79 99 / 10 40 50 40 Dell City 72 107 74 97 / 0 20 20 30 Fort Hancock 76 110 78 101 / 0 20 20 20 Loma Linda 71 101 71 91 / 0 30 30 30 Fabens 75 108 77 100 / 0 30 30 30 Santa Teresa 75 106 76 98 / 10 30 40 40 White Sands HQ 78 108 77 98 / 10 40 50 50 Jornada Range 75 106 74 98 / 20 40 50 50 Hatch 75 109 75 102 / 20 30 30 50 Columbus 77 107 78 100 / 20 20 30 40 Orogrande 71 105 71 95 / 0 20 30 40 Mayhill 61 93 58 82 / 10 60 30 80 Mescalero 61 93 58 84 / 10 40 40 90 Timberon 59 90 56 81 / 10 40 20 90 Winston 64 95 63 90 / 10 30 20 60 Hillsboro 72 102 71 96 / 20 20 20 40 Spaceport 72 105 72 98 / 20 30 40 50 Lake Roberts 61 97 61 92 / 20 30 30 70 Hurley 69 101 69 95 / 20 30 30 50 Cliff 69 105 70 100 / 20 30 30 60 Mule Creek 67 101 68 96 / 10 20 20 60 Faywood 70 100 71 94 / 20 30 30 60 Animas 72 106 76 101 / 30 20 20 50 Hachita 71 104 74 99 / 20 20 30 50 Antelope Wells 70 105 74 99 / 30 10 20 50 Cloverdale 66 99 70 95 / 50 10 20 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes- Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday for Northern Dona Ana County- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.