textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the area on Memorial Day. Storms will be capable of strong wind gusts, localized downpours, and of course lightning. Patchy blowing dust is also possible.

- Dry southwest flow aloft will keep skies mostly clear Wednesday through Saturday, with seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

An upper level ridge axis remains in place over the area today. This is helping to suppress convection trying to develop over the higher terrain of the Sacramento Mountains, on the western fringes of some modest low level moisture over the Eastern Plains of New Mexico. Still, expect some showers to manage to reach the ground as they drift over the eastern slopes of the Sacramentos over the next couple of hours.

Elsewhere, expect mostly dry conditions with light and variable winds through the early evening. Some stray showers will attempt to develop over the northern Sierra Madres, but will likely stay south and west of the New Mexico Bootheel region.

Overnight, southeast slow will develop, pushing low level moisture up to around the Rio Grande. As a weak upper level low moves into southwestern Arizona late tonight, a broken band of additional showers will move into far SW New Mexico from Arizona during the pre-dawn hours. The upper low will weaken into an open trough, but with a negative tilt orientation that will enhance upper level divergence. Broad lift will result in additional shower development through the morning hours, mainly in the Gila Region, but spreading into south-central New Mexico shortly thereafter.

By midday, a surface trough will extend along the Rio Grande, with 40s dewpoints lurking to its east. The band of showers associated with the upper trough will lift into central New Mexico, with deeper convection expected to develop along the surface trough as it approaches. Showers and thunderstorms developing along the Rio Grande in the early afternoon will translate northeast through the early evening hours. Most CAMS suggest there will be more than one "arc" of showers and thunderstorms lifting across the area. There will be enough wind shear and modest instability for some organized thunderstorms, which may produce localized strong to near-severe wind gusts, and patchy blowing dust. Lightning will also be a risk. Localized heavy downpours are possible, but storm motion will mitigate the flooding risk. A few areas of training could produce 1 to 1.50 inches of rain over very small areas, mainly in the Sacramento Mountains. PWAT values look to max out around 0.90 to 1 inch, high for May, but not terribly alarming. Showers and thunderstorms will shift east of the area after dark, lingering longest in the Sacramento Mountains.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, mainly focused just northeast of the Sacramento Mountains, but with some residual shower risk.

Drier and quieter weather will prevail from Wednesday. Winds will remain light, with near-seasonal temperatures. Dryline storms just east of the area late Friday will try to push some outflow and moisture in from the east, but no precip is expected until later next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Like the last few days, we have some low end gusty winds this afternoon which should drop off in the next few hours and we will have light west or southwest winds tonight. The low end wind gusts look to return again tomorrow afternoon. Of more important note, we will see a good chance for rain and even some thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon hours. Strong outflow winds will be something to watch for. Almost any storms that develop will be capable of producing strong outflow winds. The main threat for thunderstorms will be from 18 to 00Z, a little earlier west of the Rio Grande and a little later east of the river. Right now I'm not expecting any MVFR visibilities or ceilings. The one exception could be some localized lowered visibilities in areas of patchy blowing dust.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun May 24 2026

Easterly flow will increase low level moisture tonight, mainly east of the Rio Grande. A shortwave trough will move SW to NE across the area Monday, bringing showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the Gila Region and areas near and east of the Rio Grande. Wetting rain is likely, but also lightning strikes and gusty and erratic winds.

Aside from some residual showers in the Sacramento Mountains Tuesday, a dry southwest flow regime will set back up across the region through the remainder of the work week with the return of daily elevated fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 87 63 86 / 0 60 50 0 Sierra Blanca 67 88 59 81 / 0 40 50 10 Las Cruces 63 85 53 84 / 10 50 50 0 Alamogordo 65 85 59 81 / 0 50 50 30 Cloudcroft 52 62 46 59 / 0 50 60 50 Truth or Consequences 63 83 58 81 / 0 60 50 20 Silver City 57 75 51 77 / 20 50 20 10 Deming 62 87 56 88 / 10 40 10 0 Lordsburg 60 85 54 86 / 30 30 10 0 West El Paso Metro 70 85 61 85 / 0 60 40 0 Dell City 56 90 53 82 / 0 40 50 30 Fort Hancock 66 91 58 89 / 0 60 70 10 Loma Linda 60 83 52 78 / 0 60 60 10 Fabens 68 88 61 88 / 0 70 50 0 Santa Teresa 66 85 60 84 / 0 60 30 0 White Sands HQ 71 85 61 83 / 10 60 50 10 Jornada Range 62 84 53 82 / 0 70 50 10 Hatch 63 87 53 86 / 10 60 70 10 Columbus 69 88 61 88 / 20 50 10 0 Orogrande 63 86 55 80 / 0 50 50 10 Mayhill 49 72 46 69 / 10 40 70 60 Mescalero 50 71 44 69 / 0 50 70 50 Timberon 45 70 43 67 / 0 50 70 50 Winston 54 74 47 73 / 20 70 60 50 Hillsboro 61 81 55 81 / 10 60 60 20 Spaceport 60 83 51 82 / 0 60 50 20 Lake Roberts 39 72 35 78 / 20 60 30 10 Hurley 57 79 50 81 / 20 40 20 10 Cliff 51 81 47 84 / 20 50 20 0 Mule Creek 46 78 41 80 / 30 60 30 0 Faywood 60 79 52 80 / 20 60 30 10 Animas 61 84 56 85 / 20 30 10 0 Hachita 63 86 58 85 / 30 30 10 0 Antelope Wells 62 84 57 85 / 20 20 0 0 Cloverdale 53 79 50 80 / 20 20 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.