textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Slight chance of showers or thunderstorms this afternoon across the Gila region and Hudspeth County.

- Mostly dry, breezy, with seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cold blast of air with windy to very windy conditions looks increasingly likely late Thursday and early Friday morning. Well below normal temperatures for Friday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Upper cutoff low situated over the PacNW today will jog south today and tomorrow making it to northern AZ by late Tuesday, then crosses the Four Corners and starts to lift out by Wednesday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico today and then re-centers itself over the southeastern US by mid-week. The rest of today through Wednesday will feature quiet conditions with near seasonable to warmer than average temperatures, some breeziness Tuesday but lighter breezes on Wednesday, and mostly dry conditions both days. Slight chances of storms Wednesday in southern Hudspeth county.

Still expecting a potent cold front to push in from the Great Plains late Thursday and into Friday. Winds may start shifting northerly in the afternoon Thursday becoming breezy but after sunset is when the front really pushes through. Expect a brisk Thursday night, overnight, and through the day Friday. Windy to very windy conditions expected with northeast to easterly winds at 25-40 mph with gusts to 60 mph possible. Windiest conditions will be over ridge tops and west facing slopes like the Hueco Tanks, west El Paso, etc. A Wind Advisory will be needed with highest confidence being counties along the Int'l Border where the strongest belt of winds are expected, as well as west facing slopes in El Paso and the Hueco Tanks. Winds somewhat relax through the day Friday, but still will be noticeably breezy. One location to watch out for Friday will be the Lordsburg Playa causing dust from the strong winds. Models are starting to agree that the area will see some rain along with this cold front. Cloudcroft could potentially see some flurries or a quick dusting of snow Friday morning. Similar high temperatures Saturday as what we'll see Friday (lowlands: low to mid 60s, mtns: 40s and low 50s). Still going to be windy late Friday and into Saturday morning. Winds relax through the afternoon but will stay breezy out west nearing the AZ border. This may be another day to watch for blowing dust on the Lordsburg Playa.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions expected with breezy southwest winds today (not as strong as yesterday) with maximum speeds topping out anywhere from 12-25G24-34KT around 21Z today. Winds will decrease after sunset tonight to around 5-10KT after 03Z. Skies should generally clear out tonight as well. No rain expected near TAF sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 537 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Mostly dry today through Wednesday. A few showers possible this afternoon over the Gila. Only significant feature is a back door cold front schedule to push in from the east Thursday night. This will bring a wind shift to the east accompanied by strong, gusty winds Thursday night through Friday. Places along the south with the Intl Border could see gusts to 50 mph or greater, with the peak winds Thursday night into Friday morning. Humidity will remain well above critical thresholds during these winds. Seasonable temperatures mid week before this front will drop to well below normal for Friday and the weekend.

Min RH: Lowlands 25-35% today and Tuesday, decreasing to 18-25% Wednesday and Thursday. Mountains 35-50% today and Tuesday, decreasing to 20-35% Wednesday and Thursday. Vent rate good-very good today and Tuesday, becoming fair-good Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 85 60 83 / 20 0 20 0 Las Cruces 56 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 59 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 44 60 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 80 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 49 72 48 69 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 55 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 54 79 52 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 87 60 86 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 65 92 64 91 / 0 0 10 0 Loma Linda 58 78 57 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 63 89 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 60 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 61 84 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 56 81 55 80 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 56 84 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 58 85 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 57 82 56 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 74 49 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 48 71 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 49 69 47 68 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 45 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 52 78 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 80 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 44 69 42 68 / 10 0 0 0 Hurley 50 75 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 54 76 52 74 / 10 10 0 0 Mule Creek 50 71 48 69 / 10 10 0 10 Faywood 52 75 51 73 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 80 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 55 81 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 83 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 52 75 50 74 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.