textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

- Better thunderstorm coverage Wednesday. Storm chances persist each afternoon favoring area mountains and western NM with lesser activity in the desert lowlands.

- Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with lowland highs in the mid to upper 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM MDT Tue Sep 8 2026

The upper high that has been situated over the southern US the last couple days will dissolve and redevelop itself over the desert SW Wednesday. Meanwhile, a trough will swing by the northern portion of the CONUS. We will continue to have above average moisture (PWs of 1.2"-1.4") which will help fuel monsoonal thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. A piece of energy from this trough looks to bring more areawide coverage for thunderstorms across the area. Upper high will still be over the desert SW Thursday. A more average storm day is expected Thursday with scattered to numerous storms in the area mountains and more isolated to scattered coverage in the lowlands. Gusty outflow winds and moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary hazards each afternoon. By Friday, we'll still be under the influence of a weakening ridge but we will be entraining drier, continental air leading to a downtick in storm activity mostly focused out west where the best moisture will be. Somewhat better moisture pushes back into the area Saturday allowing for more typical monsoon thunderstorm activity, even heading into Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A few showers continue to linger across the region and we will see some off and on mid and high ceilings this morning into the afternoon hours. The showers this morning will die off, but we will see more showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. It is still unclear if any one storm will impact our TAF sites, so we will update TAFs as needed. Winds today will be light, but thunderstorm outflow winds could give us several hours of breezy conditions. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger well into the overnight hours. Storm motion today will be to the southwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 605 AM MDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Fire weather concerns over the next several days will remain low. Min RH's today through the weekend will be at or above 20%. The winds will be well below critical levels, but daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms could create some strong and gusty outflow winds. Ventilation rates will range from fair to good over the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 96 73 98 / 40 20 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 91 65 93 / 10 20 10 0 Las Cruces 69 93 67 96 / 30 30 20 0 Alamogordo 68 93 68 97 / 40 30 0 0 Cloudcroft 51 69 50 73 / 40 60 10 10 Truth or Consequences 71 93 69 96 / 40 40 10 10 Silver City 63 87 62 88 / 30 60 20 20 Deming 68 96 67 97 / 30 30 20 10 Lordsburg 69 93 68 92 / 30 30 30 10 West El Paso Metro 75 95 72 97 / 40 20 20 0 Dell City 70 95 68 99 / 10 20 10 0 Fort Hancock 73 98 72 101 / 10 20 10 0 Loma Linda 68 88 66 90 / 30 30 10 0 Fabens 72 97 71 98 / 20 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 71 93 69 96 / 30 10 20 0 White Sands HQ 74 95 73 97 / 40 30 10 0 Jornada Range 69 94 68 97 / 30 30 20 0 Hatch 70 97 68 99 / 40 30 20 0 Columbus 72 96 72 97 / 40 20 40 10 Orogrande 68 92 66 95 / 40 20 10 0 Mayhill 56 81 56 87 / 30 70 10 10 Mescalero 55 81 55 85 / 40 60 0 10 Timberon 54 79 53 82 / 30 50 10 10 Winston 59 85 58 88 / 30 70 0 20 Hillsboro 69 91 67 94 / 30 50 10 20 Spaceport 68 94 66 96 / 40 30 10 0 Lake Roberts 57 87 56 87 / 20 70 10 20 Hurley 64 90 63 90 / 30 60 20 10 Cliff 66 93 65 94 / 30 60 20 10 Mule Creek 64 91 63 90 / 50 50 10 20 Faywood 66 89 64 91 / 30 60 10 20 Animas 69 94 68 92 / 40 30 50 20 Hachita 68 93 67 92 / 40 30 40 10 Antelope Wells 67 93 66 91 / 40 50 50 30 Cloverdale 64 86 63 84 / 50 50 60 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.