textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Cloudy, mild weather for Halloween. Spotty rain showers west, but mostly dry tonight.

- Pacific cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Storms will be capable of heavy rain and flooding across Southwest New Mexico, in particular the Gila Wilderness. A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of Grant and Hidalgo Counties.

- A much-needed stretch of quieter weather is expected next week with dry conditions and typical early November temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Quite a bit of mid-and-high-level cloud coverage for our Halloween this year with plenty of moisture aloft. Precipitable water values should still be in the 1.0-1.2" range, well above normal for the end of October. Broad ridging flow aloft and the lack of surface instability due to cloud coverage will lead to a "mostly" dry forecast for Halloween night. Can't rule out a stray rain shower or two across Southwest New Mexico, but 95% of the region will be dry tonight. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s/lower 70s this afternoon, only cooling a few degrees tonight with the aforementioned clouds keeping us rather mild overnight. Wind will be light and variable. I don't see anything that will interrupt outdoor festivities tonight, so have fun everybody!

Two features to focus on for Sunday fixed across the Southwestern U.S. will be a strengthening subtropical jet streak reaching 95-knots at 500mb and a diving Pacific low right behind it. This will lead to yet another round of rain chances for the area, along with a frontal boundary passage between the Sunday evening-early Monday morning timeframe. Scattered rain showers beginning along the AZ/NM state line as early as Sunday morning will bring a risk of training storms and flash flooding through the day. Main risk will be across Grant/Hidalgo Counties Sunday afternoon in time with frontal passage. Enhanced lifting along the front will lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a storm motion parallel to the boundary due to the subtropical jet aloft posing a risk of training storms and heavy rain "streaks". Most likely rainfall across Grant County will be 0.50-1.00, but a few spots of 1.50-2.00" will be possible. A Flood Watch is in effect for most of the Gila and upper Mimbres watersheds. Breezy southwest winds will exist ahead of this Pacific front, generally 20-30 mph Sunday afternoon across Southwest New Mexico.

Less concerned about heavy rain for the Rio Grande valley and south-central New Mexico region as dry air entrainment at the base of the Pacific low may lead to weaker and lower coverage rain showers. Even less concerned further SE into Far West Texas, where rain chances are lower. Still, we can expect scattered rain showers Sunday night-Monday morning for the I-25/US-54 corridors as the frontal boundary moves through.

Full-on dry-slotting on Monday behind the Pacific low. This will lead to a breezy and cool dry with mostly clear skies. West winds 15 to 20 mph is the current forecast. A few lingering rain showers may exist over the Sacramento Mountains, but are not expected to last through Monday morning.

Dare I say it, next week finally looks dry for New Mexico and west Texas. This will be a much-needed reprieve from rain after a very wet September and October. Lowland highs in the lower 70s will be right near normal for early November. No major swings in temperature expected and winds look generally light.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VMC through forecast period with skies SCT-BKN120, BKN250. FEW020 over mtns at KELP next few hours. Surface winds 140-180 AOB 5 knots this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight. Isolated -RA across SW NM this evening, which may affect KDMN. Left out of TAF due to low confidence and minimal impacts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Light and variable winds overnight with continued cloud cover for your Halloween. Overnight temperatures will stay warm due to cloud coverage.

Pacific storm system will approach the area on Sunday, with breezy southwest winds winds ahead of it. Sustained speeds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph Sunday afternoon will lead to Good vent rates. Scattered showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning across Gila NF will spread eastward across Southern New Mexico and Lincoln NF Sunday night into Monday morning. Localized heavy rain will lead to a flood risk for Gila NF Sunday afternoon.

Conditions becoming dry again on Monday, with a week of dry weather and light winds ahead. Vent rates generally look Poor to Fair each afternoon going forward. Few day-to-day changes in temperature next week, typical for early November. Fire danger will remain low due to seasonally high ERCs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 60 80 60 72 / 0 0 50 0 Sierra Blanca 54 77 55 72 / 10 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 76 54 68 / 0 0 80 0 Alamogordo 55 77 53 68 / 10 10 90 30 Cloudcroft 42 56 40 45 / 10 10 100 40 Truth or Consequences 56 75 53 70 / 20 30 90 0 Silver City 51 67 47 60 / 40 70 100 30 Deming 54 77 51 68 / 10 20 90 0 Lordsburg 55 73 50 65 / 20 70 90 20 West El Paso Metro 61 79 61 71 / 0 0 50 0 Dell City 56 79 57 73 / 0 0 20 0 Fort Hancock 61 87 61 80 / 10 0 0 10 Loma Linda 55 73 54 65 / 10 0 40 10 Fabens 60 84 60 76 / 10 0 20 10 Santa Teresa 58 78 58 70 / 0 0 60 0 White Sands HQ 59 78 57 70 / 10 10 80 0 Jornada Range 56 77 53 70 / 10 10 90 0 Hatch 57 79 54 73 / 10 10 90 0 Columbus 57 79 56 71 / 10 10 80 0 Orogrande 55 77 54 69 / 0 10 80 10 Mayhill 48 69 47 59 / 10 10 80 20 Mescalero 47 67 45 56 / 10 10 100 60 Timberon 45 65 43 56 / 20 20 90 20 Winston 48 69 45 62 / 40 50 90 10 Hillsboro 55 74 51 69 / 40 40 90 0 Spaceport 55 75 51 70 / 10 20 90 0 Lake Roberts 48 66 43 60 / 60 80 100 50 Hurley 51 70 47 63 / 30 60 100 20 Cliff 57 72 50 67 / 60 90 100 40 Mule Creek 52 65 46 63 / 80 100 100 50 Faywood 54 70 49 62 / 30 40 100 10 Animas 56 75 51 68 / 10 50 90 10 Hachita 54 76 51 67 / 10 20 90 10 Antelope Wells 55 77 53 70 / 10 20 90 0 Cloverdale 54 68 50 64 / 10 40 90 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.