textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

- Warmer temperatures coming this weekend, pushing lowland highs to the lower to mid 90s.

- An isolated thunderstorm will be possible over parts of eastern Hudspeth County Friday evening. Chances for the odd thunderstorm over the Sacramento Mountains on Sunday are dwindling.

- A very slight cool down on Monday will be followed by warming temperatures again next week, with lowlands highs in the mid-90s common.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a moisture-starved upper low over northern Sonora, with a weak band of very limited moisture lurking just south of the border. A few scant convective showers over northern Chihuahua earlier this evening produced some cirrus blow off, and there are still some debris clouds near and south of the border. Meanwhile, some of these light showers have approached southeastern Hudspeth County, where dewpoints have climbed into the 40s. The odd sprinkle is possible there, mainly east and southeast of Sierra Blanca over the next hour or two. Chances for measurable rainfall are very low.

A trough moving over the northern and central Rockies will cause the upper low to drift to the ESE through Friday afternoon, before sliding east into the Big Bend by evening. While the deeper moisture with dewpoints 50+ will mix out east of the Davis Mountains in the afternoon, some upper-30s to lower-40s dewpoints will persist in Hudspeth County. This may be just enough to trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, likely starting out in the higher terrain south of the border, before drifting into areas south of I-10. Gusty winds will be possible with any storms, and we'll have to watch for some outflow trying to push west towards El Paso in the evening.

A lopsided upper ridge will build into the west coast this weekend, but we'll remain under northwesterly flow aloft. A weak shortwave trough will graze New Mexico on Sunday, accompanied by a weak backdoor "cold front". While we will see a shift to easterly winds up to about the Rio Grande on Sunday, the cooler air will only just lap into the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Elsewhere, temperatures will be fairly steady from Saturday to Sunday, with lower to middle 90s common across the lowlands.

A reinforcing easterly push Sunday night will cool temperatures a few degrees on Monday. The lopsided ridge will build into our area early next week, ramping temperatures back up into the mid-90s again for the lowlands.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions expected, with some high-level debris clouds near the international border overnight. An upper low traveling to our south on Friday may pop a thunderstorm well east of El Paso Friday evening, which could bring some easterly outflow winds late in the period, though they are not likely to be very impactful. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable overnight, favoring light north to northeast during the day Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1130 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are forecast though it will be very warm and quite dry. A little moisture will seep into parts of Hudspeth County overnight tonight into tomorrow, which will lead to thunderstorm chances. It will be dry elsewhere with min HR values in the teens. Temperatures will climb above normal for Saturday with single-digit min RH values forecast. On Sunday, a front will bring moisture to far eastern areas with low precip chances. Although we will be warm and dry, light winds are forecast thanks to an upper level ridge. Vent rates will be good to very good this afternoon becoming excellent for most areas tomorrow and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 88 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 52 80 53 88 / 0 30 0 0 Las Cruces 52 86 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 85 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 64 48 68 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 52 85 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 44 80 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 89 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 86 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 55 86 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 51 86 52 92 / 0 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 54 88 55 95 / 10 20 0 0 Loma Linda 47 80 56 85 / 0 10 0 0 Fabens 56 87 56 94 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 85 55 91 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 87 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 86 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 89 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 52 89 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 49 83 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 42 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 43 75 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 41 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 39 79 49 82 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 52 84 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 85 51 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 29 81 37 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 84 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 40 87 45 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 33 83 42 86 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 85 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 49 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 85 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 80 54 85 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.