textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 920 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Very little impactful weather for the rest of this week into this coming weekend; dry, with breezy afternoon winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Few areas of blowing dust with these winds.

- Near record warmth on starting Wednesday into the weekend; lowland high temperatures in the lower to mid eighties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 920 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Very broad, low amplitude ridge aloft persists over much of the western U.S. this evening. Lots of high level moisture will pass through this ridge over the CWA throughout this week, but GFS shows the majority of this moisture is around 400 mb and above. Thus just expect intermittent areas of cirrus.

Mid-level winds (700-500mb) increase significantly Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing respectable lee-side lows to develop in the vicinity of the OK Panhandle. Thus, winds will increase into breezy category both days, with west winds around 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Wind trajectories both days are a bit north of due west, so blowing dust that forms should be mainly close to the Intl Border. This will also advect in much warmer temperatures, with highs by Wednesday near daily record level, some 15 degrees above normal.

This very warm pattern will continue into the weekend. Previous model runs had been showing a weak back door cool front moving in Thursday. Latest runs show front halting up near our far eastern terrain. No doubt the upper flow will keep the cool airmass quite shallow. Thus, temps Thursday on into the weekend will remain near record levels. At El Paso, the all-time February high temperature is 86 degrees, and this may be threatened Friday or Saturday.

Some signs of a pattern change by mid-week next week, as both GFS/ECMWF show Pacific trough finally coming across for some cooling and chance of rain. Lots of time though for the models to change their minds.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 920 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR through the period with increasing SCT-BKN250 from west to east across the forecast area. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots increasing after 18Z to west 10-15G25 knots. Few areas of BLDU possible over the lowland desert areas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1005 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Warm and dry conditions will prevail over the coming week. Some record highs are expected by the weekend with min RH's mainly in the teens with some 20s in the mountains. The windiest days look to be Tue/Wed but even these days maximum speeds will just be near the low end critical threshold. ERC's early on are still fairly low for this time of the year, but will quickly go up by the weekend due to the continued daily dry conditions. RFTI starts to get to near critical by levels going into Sunday. Vent rates will be good to excellent through the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 41 79 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 33 76 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 30 73 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 32 53 39 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 35 78 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 37 69 44 71 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 34 79 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 34 74 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 43 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 31 77 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 38 81 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 40 70 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 38 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 36 76 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 41 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 29 77 35 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 31 81 39 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 37 80 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 26 74 37 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 38 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 33 64 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 38 62 46 67 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 30 74 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 38 78 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 26 77 35 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 27 69 28 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 34 72 42 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 24 76 26 79 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 22 71 23 74 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 37 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 35 77 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 33 76 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 36 79 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 43 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.