textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

- Gusty winds along the west slopes of the Franklins will diminish by midnight, but will remain gusty in far SW New Mexico.

- Temperatures Tuesday will run about 10 degrees cooler than Monday, in the wake of a backdoor cold front, but we'll be back above normal with highs in the 60s across the lowlands by Wednesday.

- Precipitation chances return Friday into the upcoming weekend with the arrival of a Pacific low. Mountain snow and lowland wintry mixed precipitation are possible as much colder air moves in from the east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1042 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

A relatively weak backdoor cold front has pushed through the area over the past few hours. Mesonet obs show ESE winds gusting as high as 32 mph at Lordsburg Playa, and some steady east winds at Animas suggest the front has passed the Continental Divide, and should be west of the Arizona state line by midnight. It's shallow, and we're not seeing much in the way of winds at higher elevations.

We're also seeing some interesting effects downwind of some desert mountain ranges. Despite some gusts west of San Augustin Pass, winds across most of Las Cruces are light and variable. LRU even checked in with a light WNW wind at 0535 Z.

Stronger wind gusts are cresting the Franklin Mountains, with several gusts of 40 to 45 mph noted in the higher elevations of West El Paso earlier this evening, and on the west side of FMSP just north of the visitor center. We've also seen some gusts around 30 mph south of the Franklins.

NBM initialized with winds too light, so these were tweaked upwards, but only for the first couple hours as models show winds diminishing by 09Z over all but far SW New Mexico, where gusts 25 to 35 mph may hold on through dawn.

Behind the front, max temperatures tomorrow will run about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday over most of the area. That means highs in the mid/upper-50s for the lowlands, which is within a degree or two of normal.

We'll be back into the 60s by Wednesday as a collapsing ridge to our west flattens out and shifts east, bringing zonal flow overhead.

The longer range forecast remains complicated, as a closed upper low off northern Baja looks to phase with a shortwave trough diving down the west coast Saturday. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will try to nose in from the east. Bottom line, precip chances look to have increased a tick Friday into Saturday, well ahead of the upper low. But, it's not a slam-dunk as some ensemble members still keep the low offshore, and never quite phase it with the shortwave. The other trick will be how far west the backdoor front can push, and whether it can do it before precip ends late Saturday into Sunday. Went with NBM since that's the new M.O., and to be honest, the uncertainty is so high, it's a toss up anyways. (FWIW, the 00Z GFS, which doesn't arrive in time for the forecast under new timelines, has checked in colder, but even it is a squeaker in terms of timing of colder temps and precip ending at ELP). Best probability for wintry precip is in the Sacramento Mountains. For the lowlands, chances increase the further east of the Divide and the Rio Grande you go. The crunch time looks to be Saturday night into Sunday morning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026 Backdoor front is approaching the AZ/NM line. Already seeing winds at DMN and TCS diminishing, and LRU has even gone light westerly. Held onto LLWS at ELP through 08Z, as winds aloft look to diminish quickly between 07Z and 08Z.

VFR conditions with light N to NE flow early Tuesday, becoming variable as the front washes out.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Dry conditions with light west flow and Poor ventilation today. Min RH 15-25%. Backdoor cold front arriving tonight, shifting winds out of the east into Tuesday.

Low fire danger this week with temperatures near normal and min RH above critical thresholds. ERCs are slightly above normal over local forests due to recent dryness. Light winds each afternoon will keep vent rates in the Poor category, with the prevailing direction out of the west Wednesday/Thursday.

Increasing cloud coverage on Thursday with precipitation chances beginning on Friday as a Pacific low approaches. Much colder temperatures this weekend will bring a chance for mountain snow accumulations, especially for Lincoln National Forest and the Black Range in western New Mexico.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 31 58 31 63 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 30 56 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 27 54 26 59 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 23 55 25 59 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 26 40 27 43 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 28 56 28 59 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 30 55 30 59 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 28 58 27 63 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 29 58 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 35 56 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 22 55 22 59 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 27 61 29 66 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 23 52 25 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 29 58 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 30 55 30 60 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 29 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 21 55 21 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 24 58 22 62 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 29 56 28 61 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 26 54 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 21 55 24 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 23 51 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 24 48 24 51 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 23 54 25 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 30 56 31 59 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 24 55 23 59 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 16 57 19 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 27 55 27 60 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 24 62 23 64 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 21 59 21 61 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 30 55 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 30 59 30 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 29 57 31 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 26 60 28 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 35 60 38 62 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.