textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry southwest flow aloft will keep the area mostly dry today through Monday. The Sacramento Mountains could see thunderstorms this afternoon.

- Temperatures will run from seasonal to above normal through Monday, with Monday being the warmest day; El Paso metro area and the lower valley could approach triple digit readings that day.

- Starting Tuesday of next week we will see a pattern shift to a more wet forecast with a little cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1040 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026

We have settled into a relatively quiet weather pattern through the weekend. This despite the fact that there is a large upper level low over California and abundant moisture lurks just to our east. On Thursday, some of the deeper moisture creeps a little to the west and will give eastern Otero and eastern Hudspeth counties a chance for a thunderstorm. The rest of the region will be dry and warm with high temperatures still running at or a little below average. For Friday, the upper level trough to our west will begin to lift out across the Great Basin and that will help sweep what little moisture that was lurking in the eastern part of the area out of the region. We will be breezy in the afternoon on Friday with high temperatures still running at or a little below average.

For the weekend, a dry southwest flow aloft will help our high temperatures creep a few degrees above average with occasionally breezy afternoon winds. Right now Monday, looks to be the warmest day of the next seven days with a few lowland locations flirting with the triple digit mark. For Tuesday and Wednesday, the deeper moisture to our east will make a stronger push to the west. We will see a chance for rain Tuesday through the end of next week. Temperature after Monday will cool to near or several degrees below average with the clouds and moisture moving into the region. If El Paso doesn't hit 100 degrees on Monday we will have to wait further into June for our first 100 degree day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. SKC but with increasing SCT150 BKN-OVC250. Surface winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, increasing south/southwest 8-13G23 knots this afternoon. Winds becoming west 7-10 knots after 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 422 AM MDT Thu May 28 2026

No real serious fire concerns through this forecast period. Last week's rainfall helped ease fuels/ERCs somewhat. They are forecast to rise back to around 85-90% briefly by Monday. Winds for the most part look to remain on the lighter side with just afternoon breezes most days through Monday. However winds are looking a bit stronger now for Friday, with afternoon winds of 15-25 mph expected. Thus fire conditions on Friday will be elevated.

Models are continuing to show Tuesday/Wednesday with higher moisture levels and good chances for thunderstorms and wetting rains.

Min RH: Lowlands 7-13% through Monday increasing to 12-20% Tuesday. Gila/Black Range Mtns 8-15% through Monday increasing to 15-25% Tuesday. Sacramento/Capitan Mtns 25-35% today decreasing to 10-20% Friday through Monday, then increasing back to 25-35% Tuesday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 93 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 89 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 62 90 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 90 58 89 / 10 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 46 68 44 67 / 20 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 62 89 58 89 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 50 82 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 60 94 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 57 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 68 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 59 90 59 92 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 66 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 62 86 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 64 94 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 63 91 60 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 73 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 53 90 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 57 92 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 66 94 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 52 80 51 81 / 20 0 0 0 Mescalero 50 78 49 78 / 20 0 0 0 Timberon 48 75 47 76 / 20 0 0 0 Winston 49 80 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 86 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 50 89 48 89 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 82 41 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 53 85 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 43 88 45 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 38 83 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 55 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 57 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 59 89 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 58 89 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.