textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Saturday with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards.

- Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs around 98-104. Temperatures dip below triple digits Sunday through midweek due to excess moisture and storms.

- Thunderstorm chances will increase late Sunday into early Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Thu Jul 9 2026

High pressure will shift east slightly closer to the area on Friday before shifting to the Four Corners on Saturday. High pressure then pushes northward over the northern Plains and Rockies then expands and strengthens Sunday. This will allow for east flow at the upper levels and will help flush in some tropical moisture. Expect daily thunderstorm chances focusing over the area mountains with more isolated activity in the lowlands. Monday and Tuesday the high pressure will flatten over a good portion of the northern CONUS allowing for a good tap of moisture to push in during this time. PW values will be above average during this time with values of 1.2- 1.3" which will add to the flooding threat with storms and may also add to the coverage of thunderstorms across the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Like yesterday (and tomorrow) we will see scattered mountain and isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The main threat from the thunderstorms will be strong and gusty outflow winds that can travel a good distance from the parent thunderstorms. My confidence is not high enough to mention thunder in the TAFs this morning, but as trends become more evident as we head into the afternoon, we will update TAFs as needed. The thunderstorms and winds will drop off this evening. We could have some mid or high ceilings from this evening into early Saturday morning. We will similar weather on Saturday, then better rain chances for next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today we will continue to see a chance of scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing strong, gusty and erratic winds. We will see very similar conditions on Saturday. Min RH's today and Saturday will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Min RH's for Sunday and into next week will be at or above 20% as moisture and rain chances will be on the increase. Away from thunderstorms, our winds will stay below critical levels today into the first of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 102 76 97 / 20 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 68 96 66 91 / 10 0 0 10 Las Cruces 69 100 70 95 / 20 0 10 10 Alamogordo 72 99 69 95 / 10 40 10 30 Cloudcroft 54 76 52 72 / 10 50 20 40 Truth or Consequences 73 100 72 95 / 10 10 40 10 Silver City 64 93 65 89 / 20 40 40 20 Deming 68 101 69 98 / 20 10 30 10 Lordsburg 68 98 68 95 / 30 20 50 10 West El Paso Metro 76 100 76 96 / 10 0 10 0 Dell City 71 99 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 75 103 74 98 / 10 0 0 10 Loma Linda 69 94 68 89 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 74 102 74 98 / 10 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 72 99 72 95 / 10 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 77 100 76 96 / 20 10 10 10 Jornada Range 72 100 71 96 / 30 10 20 10 Hatch 72 103 71 99 / 30 10 30 10 Columbus 73 102 74 98 / 40 0 20 0 Orogrande 71 99 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 Mayhill 59 86 56 81 / 10 30 20 40 Mescalero 57 87 56 83 / 10 50 20 30 Timberon 56 85 54 80 / 10 30 10 30 Winston 62 92 62 88 / 20 10 40 10 Hillsboro 70 97 69 93 / 20 20 50 10 Spaceport 69 100 68 95 / 20 10 30 20 Lake Roberts 59 95 59 91 / 20 60 40 20 Hurley 64 96 65 93 / 20 30 50 10 Cliff 65 99 65 96 / 20 40 40 40 Mule Creek 63 95 64 92 / 20 40 30 50 Faywood 66 95 67 91 / 20 30 50 10 Animas 68 98 68 96 / 40 20 50 10 Hachita 66 98 67 95 / 40 10 50 10 Antelope Wells 66 96 67 95 / 60 10 40 10 Cloverdale 63 90 63 90 / 60 30 50 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.