textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Cooler, blustery weather today with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Another round of mountain snow tonight, especially across western New Mexico. Additional snow totals 3 to 5 inches for elevations above 5,000 feet, including the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento Mountains.

- Much colder temperatures Friday through the weekend. Morning lows in the lower twenties for southern New Mexico, single digits over the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MST Wed Jan 7 2026

Upper air analysis this evening shows the axis of a negatively tilted trough swinging its way into NM. Precip has expanded in coverage across the CWA, with a few higher elevation locales seeing a changeover to snow as colder air aloft seeps its way into the Borderland. The trough will continue its trajectory across NM overnight, becoming somewhat displaced from the overarching flow. Snow levels will drop through the remainder of the night as elaborated on in the previous discussion, with the majority of precip diminishing around 0300 MDT, save for activity in the Sacs.

The tightening H5 pressure gradient alongside persistent lee- side surface troughing will lend to strengthening winds overnight tonight and then again in the late morning Thursday. The high terrain and its immediately adjacent highlands will see the strongest gusts of around 40 to 45 MPH. Snow showers will favor the high terrain and given the winds, blowing snow will become a hazard.

As the system from the morning swoops up into the Great Plains, another system comes in hot on its heels. The better moisture accompanying this system is likely to focus across central NM however, this system has superior dynamics, painting a swatch of instability across portions of western NM. Models continue to hint toward a more squall-like feature forming across the Gila and surging southeastward Thursday evening. This would deliver a gusty rain-snow mix to the lowlands of southwestern NM, with a changeover to rain closer to 5000'. The more convective nature of this system could deliver greater snow amounts tomorrow evening, particularly for portions of Grant Co. Precipitation will taper off Friday, exiting the area completely by the evening.

Much colder temperatures will follow in the wake of these sister systems. While winds will help keep minTs a little higher Thursday night into Friday morning, wind chill values will drop into the single and potentially negative digits for the Gila and Sacs. Even lowland zones will be party to brisk chills in the 20s, including the ELP and LRU metros. Winds subside Friday night, allowing for more enhanced radiational cooling. Frigid temperatures will be in store for mountain zones, with MinTs dipping into the single digits.

A slow rebound will be in store moving into next week, with dry conditions likely to persist.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Strong west flow aloft today ahead of an approaching winter storm. Skies SCT-BKN040 this morning, clearing to FEW050 by this afternoon. Increasing clouds and scattered SHRASN after 00Z, mostly over W and central NM. Surface winds 250-270 at 15-25 knots today, peak gusts up to 35 knots mid-afternoon. Surface visibility expected to remain unlimited outside of precipitation.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 430 AM MST Thu Jan 8 2026

Low fire danger today due to ongoing winter weather and high humidity. Min RH 50-70% with additional snow showers this evening. Total snow accumulations 3 to 6 inches for elevations above 7,000 feet. Blustery winds today out of the west 20 to 30 mph, leading to Good ventilation.

Conditions becoming dry again by Friday afternoon as temperatures fall to below normal. Much colder this upcoming weekend, with dangerous wind chills across Gila and Lincoln forests. Light east winds over the weekend resulting in Poor ventilation. Next week looks dry with temperatures and humidity near normal for mid- January.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 39 53 28 51 / 20 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 50 26 46 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 31 48 22 46 / 50 10 0 0 Alamogordo 29 49 19 46 / 60 20 10 0 Cloudcroft 16 26 10 30 / 60 30 10 0 Truth or Consequences 31 46 23 46 / 50 10 0 0 Silver City 26 40 18 44 / 90 10 0 0 Deming 32 50 20 49 / 60 10 0 0 Lordsburg 28 45 20 46 / 90 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 52 28 50 / 30 0 0 0 Dell City 34 54 24 49 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 37 56 26 52 / 10 0 0 0 Loma Linda 32 46 28 44 / 20 0 0 0 Fabens 36 54 28 52 / 20 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 34 51 25 48 / 30 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 36 52 25 49 / 40 10 0 0 Jornada Range 29 50 19 48 / 50 10 0 0 Hatch 31 53 19 50 / 50 10 0 0 Columbus 35 51 24 49 / 60 0 0 0 Orogrande 32 51 23 46 / 40 10 0 0 Mayhill 21 39 12 44 / 40 20 10 0 Mescalero 19 37 10 41 / 60 30 20 0 Timberon 17 36 12 39 / 40 20 10 0 Winston 20 39 8 43 / 60 10 0 0 Hillsboro 29 48 22 46 / 60 10 0 0 Spaceport 25 49 19 48 / 40 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 21 38 8 44 / 90 20 0 0 Hurley 26 43 17 45 / 90 10 0 0 Cliff 26 47 13 50 / 90 10 0 0 Mule Creek 24 42 12 46 / 90 10 0 0 Faywood 29 44 23 45 / 70 10 0 0 Animas 28 47 22 47 / 80 0 0 0 Hachita 28 46 22 46 / 80 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 29 49 21 47 / 60 0 0 0 Cloverdale 29 43 22 42 / 80 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Friday for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.