textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1121 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

- Historic March warmth through the weekend. Temperatures will peak Friday through Sunday, with lowland highs in the lower to middle nineties.

- Very dry conditions over the next several days with single digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire concerns for the time being.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Essentially no changes to the previous forecasts, except to add some detail to overnight low temperatures. We could see some impressive diurnal temperature ranges over the next few days in some of the lower-lying valleys in the Gila region. Very dry conditions will promote rapid heating and cooling each night, and temperature spreads may exceed 50 degrees in places like Lake Robers and Gila Hot Springs. Highs in the upper-80s to near 90 during the day, and lows in upper-30s to around 40 at night.

Elsewhere, warming trend looks on track, with ELP likely breaking 90 tomorrow, then peaking Friday through Sunday with highs in the middle 90s.

Latest GFS tries to push the backdoor front on Monday past the Divide, but this remains dubious given the shallow nature of the front and westerlies aloft. There's still considerable ensemble spread for Max Temps on Monday, and it all hinges on how far west the front can push.

Starting to see some hints that the middle of next week could bring a shortwave trough to the area. It doesn't look terribly strong in terms of very gusty winds or dust, but it may bring enough wind to heighten fire weather concerns, as temperatures will remain well above normal, RH quite low, and continued drying fuels following the heat.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions, with light northerly to northeasterly winds through the afternoon (the odd gust or two around 17-20 knots possible). Light and variable winds after dark.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Elevated Fire Danger today with northeast winds 5 to 10 mph and Min RH 10 to 20%. Good smoke ventilation this afternoon with transport to the south. Light wind overnight with flow settling in valleys and canyons.

Strong high pressure over the American Southwest will allow temperatures to rapidly warm in the coming days, reaching historic March warmth Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal, breaking all-time monthly highs. Humidity will be extremely low, down to 5 to 10% over the weekend. This will allow fuels to dry rapidly, leading to higher wildfire risk for any future windy days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 91 59 96 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 87 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 50 88 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 49 90 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 45 70 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 89 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 52 85 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 48 90 49 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 49 89 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 57 90 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 44 91 45 95 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 49 94 52 98 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 50 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 93 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 89 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 91 63 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 43 90 44 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 44 93 47 96 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 90 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 88 50 92 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 45 83 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 81 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 41 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 84 44 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 53 88 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 44 90 45 92 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 32 87 34 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 48 87 49 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 41 92 43 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 38 88 40 91 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 51 86 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 51 90 53 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 88 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 49 88 52 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 54 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.