textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 600 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Windy conditions this weekend over the high terrain and east slopes of Southern New Mexico. High Wind Warning in effect for the Sacramento Mountains with gusts up to 60 mph possible on Sunday. - Above normal temperatures and low relative humidity leading to critical fire danger for portions of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas this weekend. Red Flag Warnings are in effect.

- Cooler temperatures on Monday, followed by record breaking warmth the rest of the week. Lowland highs will reach the lower nineties late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Fri Mar 13 2026

It wouldn't be March without some wind, but really, it has not been too bad, so far this windy season. Winds on Friday weren't too bad, but a slowly passing upper level short wave will give us windy conditions, Saturday, Saturday night and most of the day on Sunday. The trough will be to our north and its passage is not timed well to maximize the winds, so instead of one really windy day, we will end up with two moderately windy days. Temperatures both days will be 10 to 15 degrees above average.

Then late Sunday night a cold front will roll across the region and swing our winds around from the west to the east. This cooler air will drop our temperatures below average for everywhere except near the NM/AZ border. Our cool down won't last long, by late Tuesday our surface winds will be back around to the west and that will jump our high temperatures back 10 to 12 degrees above average. Then as we move through the coming week, a strong area of upper level high pressure will take hold of our weather and that will only push our high temperatures warmer and warmer and warmer. By next Friday, high temperatures will be running nearly 20 degrees above average, which will be near daily record high temperatures. The ridge aloft will also keep our forecast dry. I know the very warm temperatures will not be much fun, but the ridge will also keep the strong winds and dust away, at least for a while.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM MDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VMC through forecast period with skies SCT-BKN250. Surface winds beginning 250-280 at 5 to 10 knots this morning, but will increase by early afternoon. West winds 250-270 at 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots across S NM and W TX this afternoon. Visibility is expected to remain unlimited with patchy blowing dust. Wind will remain gusty 15G25KT overnight into Sunday morning.

..RED FLAG WARNING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TODAY

Critical Fire Danger expected over Lincoln National Forest today due to gusty west winds and low humidity. Sustained wind speeds 15 to 25 mph this afternoon with gusts to 40 mph will combine with Min RH 8 to 15%, increasing the risk of wildfires. Fuel moisture conditions have dried rapidly across south-central New Mexico due to above normal temperatures and prolonged dryness. ERCs currently just under the 90th percentile will increase further this week. No Red Flag today for Gila NF due to recent rains and weather conditions not meeting critical thresholds.

Conditions will worsen on Sunday as winds increase further. Strongest winds expected over the Sacramento Mountains, with gusts up to 60 mph possible along east slopes. Cold front will arrive from the northeast Sunday night into Monday, causing a sudden wind shift and much cooler temperatures for Monday. Fire danger will remain Elevated the rest of the week as temperatures soar toward record highs for mid-March. Winds, however, will be lighter thus no further fire headlines are expected for the week ahead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 56 85 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 51 79 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 49 81 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 47 81 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 38 55 23 44 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 51 82 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 74 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 83 40 69 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 43 78 41 72 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 56 83 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 50 83 29 62 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 56 87 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 52 76 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 85 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 81 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 84 41 66 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 45 83 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 48 86 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 51 83 42 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 81 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 70 21 59 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 67 24 55 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 44 66 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 43 73 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 49 81 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 42 81 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 41 74 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 44 76 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 81 37 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 77 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 77 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 45 80 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 45 79 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 48 80 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 46 75 44 72 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

NM...Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM MDT Sunday for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet.