textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026 - Slight storm chances into this evening for Otero/Hudspeth Counties. - Mostly dry for the 4th of July with a shower or storm possible along and east of the Rio Grande Valley; scattered storms in the Sacramento's. Lowland highs around 100 degrees Saturday and much of next week.

- Scattered thunderstorms all mountain areas starting Monday. The lowlands will also see isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Elongated high across much of the southern US with the western edge near the AZ/NM border region. We have pushed some low level moisture to near the Rio Grande and it will linger around through the next week as east to southeast surface winds develop. This moisture isn't what we would expect in the peak of the monsoon season with dew points only in the 40s during the afternoon, but it will be enough for storms to develop over area mountains and push onto the lowlands with outflows each afternoon/evening. With the holiday weekend here, I did play it safe and put in some low PoPs further south and west than the NBM had. Good agreement between the GFS and even the CAMs that tomorrow will see some pretty strong outflows coming out of the Sacs and through the El Paso and surrounding areas between 6-9pm. This looks to be the pattern through the next week as an upper high develops over the southern Rockies and then retrogrades a little bit later in the week with the region coming under a more northeasterly flow.

High temperatures will generally be in the upper 90s to around 103 for the lowlands. Overnight lows will be trending up, especially out west once the moisture moves in. Tonight still looks to be below guidance with very dry air remaining in place, but by Sun/Mon, the dew points rise from the teens/20s into the 40s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

P6SM FEW-SCT100-120 SCT-BKN250 through most of the area as high clouds continue streaming in during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated lowland to scattered mountains 5SM -TSRA BKN080-100 through 03Z. Confidence that El Paso sees storms in the area is low, but not our of the question from 21Z-02Z and are not included in the TAF, but this would be the only terminal affected by storms. Winds mainly south to southeast east of the Rio Grande Valley and becoming southwest to northwest west of the valley, generally under 12KTS but gusty with any storm outflows.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 AM MDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Very dry air will remain in place, especially west of the RGV through the weekend with RH's in the single digits to mid teens. Scattered thunderstorms are expected over the Sacs each afternoon through Sunday with isolated over the eastern lowlands. Storms spread areawide by Monday with RH's getting to around 15-25% and continuing into midweek. High temperatures will remain hot with near 100 over the lowlands. Winds through the next week will remain under 15 mph as upper high builds over the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 103 77 100 / 10 10 20 20 Sierra Blanca 70 97 68 95 / 10 10 10 20 Las Cruces 69 101 69 98 / 0 0 10 10 Alamogordo 70 101 71 97 / 0 30 10 30 Cloudcroft 52 77 54 74 / 10 50 10 50 Truth or Consequences 67 102 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 Silver City 64 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 60 102 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 100 69 99 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 101 76 99 / 10 10 20 20 Dell City 68 101 70 98 / 10 10 10 20 Fort Hancock 72 104 75 101 / 10 0 10 10 Loma Linda 68 95 70 92 / 10 10 20 20 Fabens 74 104 74 101 / 10 0 20 20 Santa Teresa 71 101 72 98 / 0 10 20 10 White Sands HQ 72 102 78 98 / 0 10 20 20 Jornada Range 67 101 70 98 / 0 0 10 20 Hatch 68 104 71 101 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 66 104 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 71 102 70 97 / 0 10 20 20 Mayhill 56 92 61 85 / 10 40 20 50 Mescalero 55 90 58 85 / 10 50 10 50 Timberon 53 87 55 83 / 10 30 20 40 Winston 56 93 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 62 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 62 103 68 98 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 48 92 55 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 60 98 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 52 98 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 96 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 97 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 64 100 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 100 69 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 101 71 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.