textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 222 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Storm chances will slowly improve early this week as upper level high pressure loosens its grip on the area. It'll build back in again mid-week, but precip chances look a little better late in the week as upper level troughing digs in along the west coast again.

- Temperatures will nudge downward this week, but remain a few degrees above normal over most of the central lowlands.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The subtropical ridge continues to retreat towards the east, while upper-level troughing digs in along the west coast. A narrow plume of moisture aloft extends from SE Arizona into north-central New Mexico, but very dry air in the mid and upper levels remains entrenched across most of west Texas into south-central New Mexico. Low level moisture is lacking as well, and to see PWAT values much higher than the 1 inch mark, you'll need to head west of the Arizona state line, where an overnight Gulf Surge advected in plenty of low level moisture.

For us, expect widely scattered storms over the Black Range and Gila through early this evening. perhaps sneaking into the higher elevations of the NM Bootheel as well.

Cluster of showers and thunderstorms in Sonora and Arizona will lift north and northeast towards the Four Corners overnight into Sunday morning, ahead of the troughing. West winds tonight and early Monday will advect some low level moisture into the lowlands from Arizona. Expect a modest uptick in thunderstorm coverage on Monday afternoon and evening as weak disturbances associated with the troughing lift into the area, and broad upper-level diffluence develops ahead of the trough.

For what it's worth, the 18Z HRRR has a more pronounced uptick in thunderstorms over the south-central lowlands Monday night, seemingly aided by a low level convergence zone that sets up along the Rio Grande. Worth watching, but it's hard to get hopes up.

Overall better moisture lurks on Tuesday, but without as much instability or lift, and then the ridge looks to build a western secondary axis back over us for Wednesday. Things look more optimistic for later in the week as west coast troughing tries to impinge on the western edge of the ridge again. Meanwhile, a weak tropical system in the Gulf looks to stay well to our east, thanks to the westward limb of the ridge.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the period. Could see some brief W to NW outflow winds this evening at TCS, but thunder chances are very low, as storms mostly move S to N this afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 PM MDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Upper level ridging will slowly nudge eastwards as a trough digs in over the west coast. This will send some increasing moisture out way, but with variable precipitation chances that favor southwestern New Mexico. Temperatures will ease up a bit, falling to near normal west of the Divide, and about 5 degrees above normal closer to the Rio Grande. The ridge will attempt to rebuild on Wednesday, but precip chances look better late in the week as troughing nudges in from the west again.

Min RH values will around 15 percent in the lowlands, and 20 to 25 percent in the higher elevations this afternoon and again on Monday. Expect slight improvements through the week ahead.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 100 73 97 / 10 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 68 96 66 94 / 10 20 20 0 Las Cruces 70 98 69 96 / 20 20 30 0 Alamogordo 71 98 68 96 / 10 20 30 10 Cloudcroft 54 75 52 72 / 20 30 30 50 Truth or Consequences 71 96 70 93 / 20 30 30 10 Silver City 63 88 61 87 / 20 20 30 10 Deming 68 98 67 96 / 20 30 30 0 Lordsburg 68 92 65 92 / 20 20 30 0 West El Paso Metro 77 99 75 97 / 10 20 20 0 Dell City 70 99 70 98 / 10 10 20 0 Fort Hancock 73 103 72 100 / 10 20 30 10 Loma Linda 69 93 67 90 / 10 20 30 0 Fabens 72 100 71 98 / 10 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 72 98 71 95 / 10 20 30 0 White Sands HQ 75 99 73 96 / 20 20 30 10 Jornada Range 70 98 69 95 / 20 20 30 10 Hatch 72 101 70 99 / 20 20 30 10 Columbus 72 98 71 96 / 10 20 30 0 Orogrande 70 97 68 94 / 10 20 20 0 Mayhill 59 87 57 84 / 20 20 20 60 Mescalero 57 86 54 84 / 20 30 20 50 Timberon 56 84 54 82 / 20 20 20 20 Winston 59 87 57 84 / 20 30 30 60 Hillsboro 69 95 66 93 / 20 20 30 20 Spaceport 69 97 67 95 / 20 20 30 10 Lake Roberts 57 87 55 86 / 20 20 30 20 Hurley 64 91 62 90 / 20 20 20 10 Cliff 66 93 64 94 / 20 20 20 0 Mule Creek 63 88 60 89 / 20 20 20 0 Faywood 67 91 64 89 / 20 20 30 10 Animas 67 91 65 91 / 30 40 50 10 Hachita 67 93 65 91 / 20 30 40 0 Antelope Wells 65 92 64 90 / 20 40 40 20 Cloverdale 62 84 61 84 / 40 50 60 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.