textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Continued isolated thunderstorms today, with temperatures several degrees below normal.

- Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

- Storm chances lower early next week with drier and warmer conditions expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Broad, large UL ridge covers much of the CONUS with the cores of the ridge located across UT and the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Closer to home and more relevant to our weather is an UL low over Central TX. This feature will be a major factor in the days ahead. For today, it will actually limit (but not eliminate) convective potential for the central third of the CWA, as dry, subsiding air is pulled southward ahead of it. The western third of the CWA will see increased rain chances where increased moisture has combined with some UL support related to the low. Lastly, Hudspeth County and the Sacramento Mountains may also see increased storm coverage from the low. Heavy rain will be the main concern with the highest threat for flash flooding expected for areas near the AZ border into the Gila Wilderness.

The UL low/wave will make very slow progress westward, and it will enhance our thunderstorm chances tomorrow through Sunday with chances peaking on Saturday. PWs will increase from 1-1.3" to 1.25-1.35" area wide. Thus, heavy rain and flash flooding will be the main concern with storms over the weekend. The most likely timing for storms will be each afternoon and evening, but given UL forcing, rainfall will be possible at any time throughout the weekend.

As we go into next week, the UL low will shift into Mexico while continuing to weaken, and the UL high will resettle farther south, pushing drier air into the CWA. PW values will drop below an inch by Wednesday. Monday will probably be another active day, especially toward the International Border, but chances will decrease some on Tuesday and then drop very low on Wednesday. The NBM has most locations completely dry by Wednesday. Highs will continue to be below normal, but as the drier air begins to filter into the latter half of next week, we'll see temperatures climb.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions are expected with FEW-SCT100 east, SCT- BKN100 west (DMN/TCS). ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA with possibly numerous SHRA/TSRA west of the Divide is expected this afternoon and evening. This places the highest chances for impacts at DMN but all sites may see storms. Heavy rain and gusty winds would be the main impacts. Outside of storms, winds will be light and variable.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

With the exception of burn scar flooding, fire weather concerns will be minimal for the next several days. Below normal temperatures and healthy surface moisture will keep min RH values well above critical thresholds with moderate to strong overnight recoveries. A slowly approaching UL low will bring increased rain and thunderstorm chances with heavy rainfall and flash flooding the main concern. This will be particularly true of any recent burn scar areas. Outside of thunderstorm influences, winds will be light with poor to good venting each afternoon. Warmer and drier conditions will begin toward the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 95 72 93 / 20 20 50 40 Sierra Blanca 62 88 64 87 / 10 40 40 60 Las Cruces 67 92 66 90 / 20 20 50 40 Alamogordo 66 90 67 90 / 10 40 40 60 Cloudcroft 48 68 50 68 / 20 70 40 90 Truth or Consequences 69 92 69 91 / 20 30 30 50 Silver City 59 84 60 83 / 30 50 30 70 Deming 65 95 66 93 / 20 20 40 50 Lordsburg 64 89 65 88 / 30 20 40 40 West El Paso Metro 73 93 72 91 / 20 20 50 40 Dell City 65 91 67 91 / 10 30 30 60 Fort Hancock 70 95 71 94 / 10 30 40 60 Loma Linda 65 86 65 84 / 10 40 40 60 Fabens 70 95 70 93 / 20 20 50 50 Santa Teresa 70 92 69 90 / 20 20 50 40 White Sands HQ 73 92 72 91 / 20 30 50 60 Jornada Range 68 92 67 90 / 20 30 50 50 Hatch 68 95 67 94 / 20 20 40 50 Columbus 71 95 71 93 / 20 30 60 50 Orogrande 66 90 66 89 / 20 40 40 50 Mayhill 53 78 54 79 / 20 70 30 90 Mescalero 52 78 54 79 / 20 70 40 80 Timberon 50 75 51 76 / 20 70 30 80 Winston 57 83 58 82 / 20 60 30 80 Hillsboro 64 90 64 88 / 20 40 30 70 Spaceport 66 92 64 90 / 20 30 40 50 Lake Roberts 55 85 55 84 / 30 60 20 80 Hurley 60 87 61 86 / 20 40 30 70 Cliff 62 89 63 89 / 20 30 30 70 Mule Creek 59 85 61 84 / 30 30 40 60 Faywood 63 87 63 86 / 20 40 20 70 Animas 65 89 66 88 / 30 40 40 50 Hachita 63 90 64 89 / 20 40 40 50 Antelope Wells 65 89 66 88 / 20 50 40 70 Cloverdale 61 82 62 82 / 30 40 40 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.