textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms again today, especially for southwest New Mexico where localized flash flooding will be possible this evening. Rain chances will shift westward over the next few days.

- Drier and warmer weather pattern later this week, limiting storms to western New Mexico and the high elevations. Lowland temperatures will begin reaching triple digits Friday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Merry-go-round high pressure will control our weather over the next 10 days. An area of upper level high pressure is currently centered over Colorado and this upper level ridge will make a slow tour of the southwest this week and by the start of next week, will end up pretty much back where it started over Colorado.

For Monday, like I said, the ridge will centered over Colorado which gives us an easterly flow aloft. Embedded in this flow has been a very slow moving weak upper level trough. This trough will be centered more or less over northern Mexico, Monday afternoon. This trough will help spark wide spread thunderstorm activity and with precipitable water values (PW's) of 1.3 to 1.4 inches across the region, storms will be very efficient rain makers. The greatest threat for heavy rain will be in Luna, Hidalgo and southern Grant Counties where a Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect. These locations have already see good amounts of rain on tonight and last night and it looks like they will be under the gun again Monday afternoon. With all the clouds and moisture, our high temperatures will be running several degrees below average. Many lowland locations may not make it out of the 80's for high temperatures.

For Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper level ridge will drift into the Red River Vally of Oklahoma and Texas. This ridge position will begin to push the moisture further and further to the west. For Tuesday there will be enough moisture to give everyone a chance for rain, but by Wednesday much of the moisture will be pushed into Arizona, so the best rain chances will be along the New Mexico and Arizona border. High temperatures both days will continue to run a few degrees below average.

For the end of the week, into the weekend, the upper level ridge will build directly over New Mexico and that will pretty much shut down our rain chances and it will jump most lowland location's high temperatures back above the triple digit mark. For the start of the final week in July the ridge will return to Colorado. It doesn't look like much moisture will be able to slip into the region from the east so the hot dry weather looks to continue as we finish out July.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VMC conditions this morning with skies FEW-SCT110 and surface winds 180-220 at 5 to 10 knots. Scattered TSRA across SW NM this afternoon, skies SCT-BKN080CB after 21Z. Highest risk for direct TS impacts will be for S NM sites between 21-03Z this evening. Storms will be capable of 4SM VIS and gusts up to 40 knots. Did not include KELP due to lower rain chances. Will need to amend if necessary later today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Scattered thunderstorms (60-80% coverage over Gila NF, 40-60% coverage over Lincoln NF) this afternoon. Storms will be capable of sudden, gusty winds, canyon and burn scar flooding, and new lightning starts. Min RH 30-50% with very good overnight RH recovery. Moisture and rain chances will keep fire weather risk low over the next few days.

Moisture shifts west Tuesday/Wednesday, limiting rain chances with much more isolated (10-20%) storm coverage. Drier and warmer trend will allow ERCs to increase into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 70 90 72 96 / 50 20 30 10 Sierra Blanca 62 86 64 91 / 30 10 10 10 Las Cruces 64 86 66 92 / 50 40 40 10 Alamogordo 64 88 67 93 / 30 40 30 20 Cloudcroft 49 68 51 71 / 30 60 20 50 Truth or Consequences 69 87 69 91 / 30 50 30 20 Silver City 59 80 60 84 / 70 70 50 50 Deming 64 89 64 94 / 60 50 50 10 Lordsburg 64 85 64 90 / 60 60 50 10 West El Paso Metro 70 88 72 94 / 50 30 30 10 Dell City 66 91 69 96 / 30 10 10 10 Fort Hancock 69 92 72 98 / 50 20 10 10 Loma Linda 63 83 66 88 / 40 20 20 10 Fabens 68 91 70 97 / 50 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 67 86 68 92 / 50 40 40 10 White Sands HQ 70 89 73 94 / 30 30 30 10 Jornada Range 66 88 67 93 / 40 40 30 10 Hatch 66 90 67 95 / 40 50 30 10 Columbus 68 88 69 94 / 60 40 50 10 Orogrande 65 87 67 93 / 30 30 30 10 Mayhill 54 79 55 82 / 20 40 10 30 Mescalero 53 78 54 82 / 30 60 20 60 Timberon 51 76 53 80 / 30 40 20 20 Winston 58 79 58 82 / 40 60 40 40 Hillsboro 64 85 64 88 / 40 60 40 30 Spaceport 63 87 64 91 / 30 40 30 10 Lake Roberts 55 82 56 85 / 70 80 50 60 Hurley 60 82 61 86 / 70 60 50 30 Cliff 62 85 63 90 / 60 70 60 50 Mule Creek 60 82 60 86 / 60 80 60 50 Faywood 62 82 63 86 / 60 60 50 30 Animas 64 84 64 90 / 70 70 50 10 Hachita 62 84 63 90 / 70 60 50 10 Antelope Wells 64 83 64 89 / 80 70 60 10 Cloverdale 61 78 61 85 / 80 80 50 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening for Lowlands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel.