textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

- Windy on Thursday, with gusts of 35 to 45 mph in the afternoon. Near critical to critical fire danger due to continued dry and breezy conditions.

- Cool front moves in Saturday afternoon with cooler temperatures and gusty east winds.

- Slight chance of showers Saturday with better chances of showers/thunderstorms Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 940 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

Tonight we watch upstream to our west for the approach of our next upper-level trough. This feature will be near the Four Corners tomorrow afternoon, and this will squeeze pressure gradients and form a lee-side surface trough to our N and E. This will mean another dry, sunny, and warm day, with increasing SW winds, becoming breezy midday, and windy mid-afternoon, lasting will into the evening. The very low RH, along with above normal temperatures, and strong winds, are a recipe for fire concerns across the region, and a Red Flag Warning will be in effect for the Sacramento mountains, but the lowlands and western mountains have fuels that are not yet critically dry this year. So there is and elevated concern, especially in the grasses, but despite weather meeting criteria, the fuels are not yet there, except for areas to our east, including the SACs. Winds will increase to the 15-25 mph range with gusts 30-35+ mph, but the winds will be slow to strengthen, with a fine morning, and then winds kicking in after noon. The slow passage of the system, will keep winds strong into the night over elevated terrain, passes and gaps, and east slopes favored for mountain waves.

Friday we will be behind the exiting upper trough, and it's associated Pacific cold front. Winds will be more westerly and lighter, but somewhat breezy. Temperatures will be cooler by about 10 degrees. Conditions will be dry. As the first lobe of energy (our wind maker) exits over the Rockies to our north, a surface front will begin to push south into the Southern Plains and Southwestern U.S. Saturday morning. We expect to see this sidedoor/backdoor front push in late morning, and arrive in El Paso around noon. The front comes in with strong and gusty NE and E winds for the mid day and afternoon hours. The front brings only moderate amounts of recycled gulf moisture, and thus it appears to be a mostly dry passage for Saturday. However, upstream to our west, lurks a large Pacific low over the Baja. This system will move our way Sunday, and begin to spread instability and dynamics over our area. We could see some showers develop over N Mex and mover our way late Sunday. As the system moves east and slowly passes to our south, we should see some better rain and even storm chances over our area Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday the system moves out to our east, across Texas, and we come under a fair weather zonal flow pattern for the rest of the week. We will see plenty of sunshine, and lighter winds. In additions, we will see another warm up, with a possibility of our first 90 degree highs for El Paso at the end of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 437 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions to persist throughout the morning hours but winds will start to pick up in the early afternoon with maximum wind speeds occurring around 00Z, staying breezy overnight. Expect a southwest wind at around 15-20G25-30KT being the high end of what the winds will reach up to. Mostly clear skies expected with a band of high clouds that will push through the area through the afternoon and evening hours. Dry conditions will persist. BLDU possible tomorrow afternoon with the best chances being at KELP to see dust with some reductions in visibilities. Best guess right now for potential visibility reductions at KELP is around 3-5SM. KDMN has a shot to see some BLDU due to the local dust sources in and around Deming.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 518 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Critical fire weather concerns this afternoon for the Sacramento Mtns area due to breezy to windy conditions and critical RHs. Expect a southwest wind today with 20ft wind speeds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 45-50 mph. Winds will peak in the late afternoon and into the early evening hours and will stay breezy overnight with gusty conditions. Min RH will be 5-10% across the lowlands and 10-15% in the area mountains today. Similar min RHs tomorrow but wind speeds won't be as strong as what we'll see today with west winds of 10-15 mph.

A cold front will push in Saturday morning shifting winds easterly becoming breezy with the front. Easterly breeziness continues through the afternoon hours Saturday. Min RHs still mostly critical (12-20%) Saturday afternoon but incoming moisture Sunday will bring min RHs up to around 25-30% in the lowlands and 40-45% in the mountains. Lighter winds Sunday and Monday. Light rain chances with some area mountain snow possible Sunday morning. Another chance for rain on Monday as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 48 71 45 70 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 44 70 43 67 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 40 66 37 67 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 41 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 30 43 27 44 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 39 65 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 32 56 33 61 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 39 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 10 Lordsburg 34 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 48 70 47 71 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 42 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 46 77 45 76 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 43 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 47 73 45 74 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 43 68 41 70 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 47 67 43 69 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 39 67 33 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 39 69 33 71 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 43 71 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 41 66 39 67 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 37 57 30 54 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 33 53 29 56 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 35 53 34 53 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 27 57 23 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 37 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 10 Spaceport 34 66 30 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 56 27 59 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 32 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 10 Cliff 29 64 28 68 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 29 59 28 63 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 36 60 35 62 / 0 0 0 10 Animas 37 67 34 69 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 37 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 10 Antelope Wells 39 70 36 70 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 37 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ.