textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Storm chances shift east on Sunday and Monday, limited mostly to Hudspeth and Otero Counties. A few storms will be capable of large hail, gusty winds, and excessive rainfall leading to localized flash flooding.

- A few days of drier weather is expected midweek before rain chances return Thursday into next weekend.

- Typical late-October temperatures, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

The weather pattern will be somewhat less active this afternoon and evening as the large low pressure system near the Four Corners Region lifts out of the area to the east. the Sub-tropical jet remains near the area and will continue to help generate isolated to scattered thunderstorm development over areas east of the Rio Grande late this afternoon and overnight. The most likely areas of storm development will be in Otero, Hudspeth, El Paso Counties and locations to the east. There will be a few isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, but the most active period will be later in the evening after 9 pm when a short wave trough embedded in the flow pattern helps generate scattered strong thunderstorm development. The severe threat from storms will be reduced but still possible. There is a potential for excessive rainfall with flash flooding from a few storms, but should not be as widespread as previous days.

Monday should be a quieter day as the local forecast area will be west of the trough axis with a drier, more stable mass moving into the region. Short range models seem to reflect this with only a few brief isolated storms for areas east of El Paso in the evening hours. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry for southern New Mexico and Far West Texas as a dry westerly zonal flow sets up over the region. Temperatures will be near seasonal in most areas.

We will return to a more active weather pattern Thursday and Friday as another trough sets up on the west coast and a ridge builds over the Gulf Coast. This pattern will allow moisture back into the region that will help fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area both days.

The outlook for Halloween on Saturday looks dry with a short wave ridge moving over the state for a short period of quiet weather. Active weather returns to the area next Sunday as the trough on the west coast deepens and moves inland toward New Mexico.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VMC prevailing at local terminals today. Isolated TS across W TX and SE NM this afternoon and evening. Storms may be too far east to directly affect KLRU. Storms may develop close to KELP to mention VCTS this evening but not confident enough to say KELP may be directly impacted. Surface winds 170-200 at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming 320-060 AOB 5 knots tonight. Skies FEW- SCT080, SCT- BKN250 today with greater cloud coverage east of KELP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1112 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dry conditions for Gila NF, but scattered thunderstorms are expected again across Lincoln NF this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and localized flooding. Prevailing wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph, with Good vent rates today. Lighter winds Monday/Tuesday will keep vent rates Poor to Fair through most of the afternoon hours.

Moisture shifts further east early this week, leading to a brief window of dry conditions area wide. Rain chances return Thursday into next weekend, leading to another round of wetting precipitation over the forested areas. ERCs are very low at the moment, so no fire danger expected into early November.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 75 56 77 / 40 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 53 72 50 74 / 40 20 10 0 Las Cruces 53 72 51 75 / 10 10 0 0 Alamogordo 52 72 50 73 / 40 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 53 37 54 / 50 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 50 69 49 73 / 10 0 0 0 Silver City 43 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 50 74 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 48 74 50 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 75 58 76 / 30 10 0 0 Dell City 54 72 52 74 / 60 30 10 10 Fort Hancock 60 81 57 82 / 50 20 10 0 Loma Linda 52 68 51 70 / 40 20 10 0 Fabens 58 77 56 79 / 40 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 56 74 54 75 / 10 10 0 0 White Sands HQ 57 74 55 76 / 30 10 10 0 Jornada Range 52 72 51 74 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 52 75 51 78 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 54 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 71 50 73 / 30 10 10 0 Mayhill 44 65 41 68 / 60 30 20 0 Mescalero 43 63 41 64 / 40 10 0 0 Timberon 41 60 40 62 / 70 20 10 0 Winston 37 64 38 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 70 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 70 48 73 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 68 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 71 45 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 75 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 46 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 75 50 77 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 78 50 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 73 49 73 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.