textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1031 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

- Mostly dry for the lowlands through midweek with storm chances favoring area mountains and west of the Divide. Storms will be capable of gusty outflow winds and localized flooding.

- Temperatures will remain above normal with lowland highs in the mid to upper 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

High pressure aloft over the Southern Plains early this week will keep storm coverage limited even though moisture levels remain above normal. PWs around 1.2" are modeled, which would allow for higher rain rates and isolated flash flooding. However, the warmer air aloft from the ridge will lower the convective potential each day. Through midweek, synoptic models are not showing any noticeable features such as shortwaves/vort maxes that provide additional forcing to the typical orographic lift. We'll have sufficient moisture and instability each afternoon for convection to develop, but are lacking a trigger for much of the week.

For today, the better moisture will be focused out west (as shown by current WV imagery) with drier conditions along and E of the RGV. There is a marginal risk of flash flooding W of the Divide later today with rainfall over 1" possible in spots. Spotty showers and storms are forecast for the rest of the lowlands with convection favored over the west slopes of the Sacs this afternoon. Outflow gusts to 30 mph are possible today.

The ridge axis remains extended through NM for Mon with slightly lower rain chances area-wide, still favoring out west underneath the moisture plume. Mainly dry conditions are forecast for the lowlands on Mon. The high elongates across the southern US into midweek due to a passing upper trough across the Midwest. Again, forcing will be hard to come by due to the warmer air aloft and general subsidence. Limited storm chances through Thu with better coverage out west. The upper high re-establishes over the Desert SW late in the week as moisture is recycled from the north around it. This may be the beginning of the end of the monsoon as the westerlies dig further south from the Rockies. The trough that squashes the high around midweek may slip in from the N on Thu and bring some moisture and a weak cold front, depending on where the upper high sets up.

A more significant feature to watch for is a deep upper trough diving down the Rockies about a week from now, which the GEFS is much more bullish on compared to the Euro ensemble. If the GEFS is right, below-normal temps and breezy E/N winds would reach the Borderland early next week. A wave of moisture and showers/storms could also accompany this front from the Plains.

Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal (about 5 degrees) through the week with lowland highs in the mid-upper 90s. El Paso may approach 100F late in the week as the upper high consolidates to the west.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Isolated TS develop this afternoon, most likely for KTCS and KDMN. Brief downpours and gusts up to 30kts possible from outflows. KELP and KLRU should stay dry today. CIGs around 080 today from diurnal convection, as low as 060 in TS. Scattered showers linger near KDMN into the overnight. Prevailing winds AOB 10kts from S-SE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1031 AM MDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low through the week. Storm chances will be limited through midweek as an upper ridge sits nearby. Mostly dry conditions are forecast E of the Divide today, with the exception of scattered activity over the Lincoln. Better coverage is expected out west today with a marginal risk of heavy rainfall. Overnight RH recoveries will be very good to excellent tonight. Light SE flow today outside of outflows gusting up to 30 mph, continuing into midweek. Slightly lower rain chances area-wide for Mon, again favoring N and W. Temperatures will be seasonably warm this week as moisture levels remain near or above normal.

Min RHs range from 20-30% in the lowlands through midweek, 30-50% in the mtns. Vent rates will be poor to good through midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 65 92 66 92 / 0 10 10 10 Las Cruces 69 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 0 Alamogordo 68 94 68 94 / 10 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 49 71 50 71 / 10 20 10 50 Truth or Consequences 71 93 70 94 / 30 20 20 0 Silver City 64 87 63 87 / 50 20 30 40 Deming 69 96 69 96 / 20 10 10 0 Lordsburg 70 94 69 94 / 40 20 30 10 West El Paso Metro 75 96 76 96 / 10 10 10 0 Dell City 69 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 99 74 99 / 0 10 10 0 Loma Linda 67 90 68 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 98 72 97 / 0 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 71 95 72 95 / 10 10 10 0 White Sands HQ 73 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 0 Jornada Range 69 95 70 95 / 10 10 10 0 Hatch 70 97 71 97 / 20 10 10 0 Columbus 71 96 72 96 / 20 10 10 0 Orogrande 68 94 69 94 / 0 10 0 0 Mayhill 55 83 55 84 / 0 10 10 30 Mescalero 54 83 54 83 / 10 20 10 50 Timberon 53 81 53 81 / 0 10 10 40 Winston 59 84 59 85 / 40 40 40 30 Hillsboro 68 91 68 92 / 30 20 30 10 Spaceport 68 94 68 94 / 20 10 20 0 Lake Roberts 58 86 57 86 / 50 40 40 70 Hurley 64 90 64 90 / 50 20 20 20 Cliff 67 95 66 94 / 40 30 30 30 Mule Creek 65 91 64 90 / 20 30 20 40 Faywood 66 88 66 89 / 40 20 20 10 Animas 69 94 69 95 / 40 20 30 10 Hachita 68 93 68 93 / 40 20 20 10 Antelope Wells 67 93 67 93 / 40 20 20 10 Cloverdale 64 87 63 88 / 40 30 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.