textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

- Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records.

- Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Wednesday. Staying dry elsewhere.

- Slight chances for thunderstorms return to the lowlands from Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The heat dome will sit right over southern New Mexico on Tuesday and that will send our high temperatures 10 to 13 degrees above average. Almost all of the locations in the lowlands will have triple digit heat and high temperatures at or a little above 105 will be possible. I have expanded the heat advisory to also now include most of Dona Ana and most of Luna Counties along with El Paso County and the Rio Grande Valley of Hudspeth County. The mountains will have just enough lift and moisture to make a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon, though my confidence in any rain reaching the ground is low. For Wednesday the upper level ridge will drift a little to the west, but not far enough to keep us from having another afternoon of record or near record high temperatures.

For Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge will be centered along the NM/AZ border. This will allow a few degrees to drop off our high temperatures and we will see some scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly in area mountains, but the lowlands could see a few storms as well. For those hoping to catch a view of the lunar eclipse on Thursday night, we will have some clouds but we should also have plenty of clear spots to see the partial eclipse of the moon.

For Saturday and Sunday the models are beginning to hint at a pattern change with the upper level ridge weakening and moving off to the east. This would continue the slow downward trend in our high temperatures (but still well above average) and it will allow a few more thunderstorms to develop in the lowlands both afternoons. For the start of next week, both the extended GFS and ECMWF indicate that we will have a brief monsoon flow develop across the region, which would increase our rain chances and decrease (by a few degrees) our afternoon high temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions will continue with SKC-FEW150/250. Winds will be from the southeast (110-150) this afternoon with speeds AOB 10 knots along with the occasional gust AOB 20 knots. Some wind shifts also may occur as outflows move off area mountains later this afternoon and evening, but confidence is low.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Another hot and dry day is expected today with highs near record levels and min RH values in the lower to mid teens. The exception will be across the mountains where improved moisture will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Winds, outside of storms, will be light with good venting. Wednesday will be a near repeat of Tuesday albeit a degree or two cooler, but moisture will return Thursday along with some shower and thunderstorm chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 103 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 68 100 68 96 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 72 102 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 73 101 71 98 / 10 10 10 20 Cloudcroft 56 77 53 74 / 10 40 30 60 Truth or Consequences 74 101 74 98 / 10 0 10 20 Silver City 67 96 68 94 / 0 0 0 40 Deming 71 103 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 72 103 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 78 103 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 71 102 71 99 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Hancock 75 105 76 104 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 71 97 70 93 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 73 104 74 102 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 74 102 74 100 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 77 103 76 100 / 0 0 10 10 Jornada Range 72 102 72 99 / 10 0 10 0 Hatch 73 103 73 103 / 0 0 10 10 Columbus 74 104 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 71 100 70 97 / 0 0 10 10 Mayhill 61 89 57 86 / 10 40 30 70 Mescalero 59 89 56 86 / 20 30 30 50 Timberon 58 86 56 83 / 10 30 20 50 Winston 64 92 63 90 / 10 10 10 60 Hillsboro 72 101 71 99 / 0 0 10 40 Spaceport 71 101 70 99 / 10 0 20 10 Lake Roberts 60 93 61 91 / 20 20 20 50 Hurley 68 99 70 96 / 0 0 0 30 Cliff 69 103 70 101 / 0 0 0 20 Mule Creek 67 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 70 97 71 95 / 0 0 0 30 Animas 71 104 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 71 101 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 69 102 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 67 97 69 95 / 0 0 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana County-Southeast Tularosa Basin- Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.