textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Extremely hot temperatures today with triple digits common across the desert lowlands. Forecast high of 108F for El Paso, 106F for Las Cruces, and 109F to 110F in the Lower Valley.

- Scattered severe storms possible Saturday afternoon with damaging wind gusts, severe hail, and flash flooding possible.

- Highs will be cooler over the weekend, but triple digits return early next week. Expect continued daily thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM MDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper high will continue to spin over the desert southwest Friday. Still have plenty of moisture across the area for another round of monsoonal thunderstorms even with the upper high right over us. Hi- res guidance is showing a bit better coverage for storms tomorrow with scattered storms possible everywhere, even in the desert lowlands later that afternoon. In addition, Friday will be the hottest day of the week ahead with a forecast high of 108F for El Paso. Basically all zones except the area mountains will be under a Heat Advisory tomorrow. Heading into Saturday, an active thunderstorm day looks to be ahead. A cutoff low will dive south and east over the mid-western states Saturday which will spill in a cold front into the area. High pressure will be shunted to the west over AZ that day leaving us under northerly flow. SPC is highlighting much of Otero county, northeast portions of Dona Ana and eastern portion of Sierra county in the Marginal Risk (level 1/5). Severe hail, severe wind gusts, and flash flooding will be the primary hazards. In addition, WPC has the same general area under a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for flash flooding Saturday.

Sunday through mid-week next week the upper high will continue to meander over the desert southwest. Slightly cooler over the weekend but temperatures start rising back up to triple digits Monday through Wednesday. Continued daily thunderstorm chances each afternoon with the area mountains and western locations border Arizona will be favored for storm activity.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT, ocnl BKN, 110-250. Winds will generally be from the east (060-090) but with considerable variability, especially this morning. Speeds this afternoon will top out around 10 kts with a few gusts to 20 knots. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon and evening. No mention of TSRA in this TAF cycle but will likely be included in future updates. Most likely timing for storms, if they occur, in ELP is between 21z-3z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM MDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Very hot conditions are expected in the lowlands today with many locations seeing one of the hottest days of the year, so far. Afternoon RH values will dip into the mid to upper teens in the lowlands. Winds will be light with good vent categories. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the mountains this afternoon before pushing into the lowlands late afternoon into the evening. Saturday will not be as hot with higher afternoon humidity along with more scattered showers and thunderstorms. On Sunday, drier and warmer conditions will return to most of the area. Thunderstorm chances will largely be held to the mountains and areas west of the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 78 99 75 98 / 50 40 40 0 Sierra Blanca 71 94 67 93 / 10 20 20 10 Las Cruces 73 98 68 96 / 50 50 60 0 Alamogordo 71 97 67 95 / 30 50 50 10 Cloudcroft 53 72 50 72 / 30 90 60 30 Truth or Consequences 75 98 70 96 / 20 30 40 0 Silver City 67 92 64 90 / 30 70 30 40 Deming 75 100 70 97 / 30 30 40 0 Lordsburg 74 100 71 97 / 20 40 50 10 West El Paso Metro 79 99 75 97 / 50 40 50 0 Dell City 74 97 70 97 / 20 30 30 0 Fort Hancock 78 101 75 100 / 20 20 20 10 Loma Linda 71 91 68 90 / 30 30 40 10 Fabens 77 100 74 98 / 30 30 30 10 Santa Teresa 76 98 72 96 / 40 40 50 0 White Sands HQ 77 98 73 96 / 50 50 60 0 Jornada Range 74 98 70 96 / 50 50 70 0 Hatch 75 102 70 99 / 30 50 60 0 Columbus 78 100 73 98 / 30 40 40 0 Orogrande 71 95 68 94 / 30 40 50 10 Mayhill 58 82 56 84 / 30 80 50 20 Mescalero 58 84 55 83 / 40 90 50 20 Timberon 56 81 53 81 / 20 90 50 20 Winston 63 90 60 89 / 20 60 20 10 Hillsboro 71 96 66 95 / 20 40 30 10 Spaceport 72 98 67 96 / 40 50 60 0 Lake Roberts 61 92 59 91 / 30 70 30 50 Hurley 69 95 65 93 / 30 50 30 30 Cliff 70 100 68 98 / 30 60 30 40 Mule Creek 68 96 66 94 / 20 60 30 30 Faywood 71 94 66 92 / 30 60 30 10 Animas 76 101 72 98 / 20 50 60 0 Hachita 74 99 70 96 / 30 50 60 0 Antelope Wells 74 99 70 96 / 20 50 60 10 Cloverdale 70 95 66 92 / 20 60 70 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.