textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

- Increasing moisture and clouds with tonight through Tuesday. Hit and miss isolated to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday.

- Drier air and warmer conditions return Wednesday, as westerly flow pushes moisture back east. Temperatures will warm back above normal beginning Wednesday.

- Increasing winds late week, with continued dry weather will elevate fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Today we see the surface airmass from the N and NE firmly established over the Borderland, with continued breezy E and SE winds beginning to import some Gulf moisture into the region. Aloft a deep SW/W flow pattern is overrunning the surface cool pool, but there isn't much lift associated. Also aloft, and to our west, is a minor shortwave disturbance tracking W to E across our area today. This also is struggling to produce much dynamics or instability due to the cool nature of the low-level airmass. Thus, our POPs, and actual shower occurrence is quite underwhelming, and the models have backed off on pcpn for today, tonight, and a good portion of Monday under this weather scenario. However, our E and SW portions still do have the best moisture availability, and thus we are seeing some very light isolated showers, with very little actual rainfall today and this afternoon.

For tomorrow, Monday, the moisture remains, and even increases, with further bumps in dewpoints and PWATs, but ridging aloft will take over, and minimize the instability that would force pcpn to develop. That will keep us dry for much of the day. With little to no showers, and possibly fewer clouds, the airmass will begin to modify, allowing temperatures to recover a few degrees.

Later Monday, and into the overnight hours, another disturbance will arrive from the west. This second shortwave is stronger and sharper than today's, thus it will bring a better chance for shower development Monday night through Tuesday. With a bit more instability we could see a few weak thunderstorms. This period will give us our best chances for measurable rainfall (>0.01"), but wetting rains (0.10") will be quite isolated.

The trough axis looks to exit to the east early Tuesday afternoon. Drier air, on deep westerly flow, quickly returns Wednesday. Low- amplitude ridging builds over the SW U.S. warming our temperatures back above normal starting Wednesday and continuing through the rest of the period.

As we get to Friday and into the weekend, beyond the end of the forecast period, the forecast becomes more uncertain, as the models suggest a more chaotic pattern. A large Pacific low takes shape off the West Coast and attempts to draw moisture in from the east, but also appears to cause increasing winds over our western areas. We don't appear to be well above normal on temperatures, we also don't appear to be excessively dry on RH, but the winds could elevate fire weather conditions, with potential for dry winds western areas, and moisture and storms far eastern areas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period. Increasing mid and high clouds expected. East to southeast breezes should continue the next few hours but will dwindle to generally AOB 10KT tonight. Winds won't be as breezy tomorrow as what we saw today but will be an east wind in the morning, shifting more southerly in the afternoon. Rain showers will arrive tomorrow evening and will track west to east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1004 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A boost in moisture, from the east, behind yesterday's cold front will help to keep fire weather concerns low through midweek. This change in the weather pattern will keep temperatures at or below normal through Tuesday, with plenty of passing clouds, elevated RH, and isolated to scattered light rain showers for Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be moderate to breezy from the E and SE, but well below concerning levels, and those winds will be responsible for the ingest of the Gulf moisture, keeping RH up.

Wednesday we shift back to a modestly breezy west wind pattern, which will flush the moisture out of the region. Thus we see the start of warmer than average temperatures and lowering RH. Same for Thursday, resulting in elevated fire wx conditions. No fire wx products are anticipated later this week as winds should stay below critical thresholds and min RHs will be in the teens, staying out of the single-digit range. Late week we see a deep pacific low pressure system slowly work it's way east toward the region. As it approaches we will see increased winds over western areas Friday. Rain/storm chances appear possible over far eastern areas late in the week, as Gulf moisture attempts to wash in from the east on a possible dryline . Confidence is low in where the dryline sets up, if it develops setup.

Min RHs range from 15-35% through Tue, then 10-25% Wed/Thu. Vent rates will be good to very good today, then poor to good Mon; very good to excellent Wed onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 72 52 79 / 0 10 50 30 Sierra Blanca 40 66 45 75 / 20 10 60 40 Las Cruces 41 68 48 75 / 0 10 60 30 Alamogordo 38 70 45 72 / 0 10 60 60 Cloudcroft 27 49 34 50 / 0 10 60 70 Truth or Consequences 44 68 50 73 / 0 10 60 50 Silver City 39 62 43 69 / 0 20 60 30 Deming 44 71 49 78 / 0 10 50 30 Lordsburg 44 68 45 77 / 0 10 30 10 West El Paso Metro 48 71 54 77 / 0 10 60 30 Dell City 39 69 45 76 / 10 10 50 50 Fort Hancock 44 73 50 82 / 20 10 60 30 Loma Linda 41 65 47 70 / 10 10 60 40 Fabens 44 73 52 80 / 10 10 50 30 Santa Teresa 44 69 50 77 / 0 10 60 30 White Sands HQ 45 70 52 75 / 0 10 60 40 Jornada Range 37 69 45 74 / 0 10 60 40 Hatch 39 71 50 77 / 0 10 60 40 Columbus 46 72 52 79 / 0 10 40 10 Orogrande 40 68 47 73 / 0 10 60 50 Mayhill 29 61 37 61 / 0 10 60 70 Mescalero 28 61 35 60 / 0 10 60 70 Timberon 31 56 36 60 / 0 10 60 70 Winston 30 62 37 66 / 0 20 60 50 Hillsboro 40 66 46 72 / 0 20 60 40 Spaceport 36 68 45 73 / 0 10 60 40 Lake Roberts 36 65 40 70 / 0 20 60 40 Hurley 39 65 42 72 / 0 20 50 30 Cliff 41 71 43 78 / 0 20 50 20 Mule Creek 41 68 42 75 / 0 20 40 20 Faywood 39 63 46 70 / 0 20 60 30 Animas 45 71 46 78 / 0 10 20 10 Hachita 42 69 46 78 / 0 10 30 10 Antelope Wells 44 72 47 80 / 0 10 20 0 Cloverdale 44 68 48 76 / 0 10 10 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.