textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1020 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Historic March heat wave through the weekend with lowland highs in the lower to mid 90s. We will likely set daily and monthly record high temperatures.

- Very dry conditions through this weekend and most of next week with single digit relative humidity values. Light winds will mitigate fire concerns for the time being, but some afternoon breeziness is possible Saturday and Sunday across the Gila Region and Black Range.

- A backdoor cold front will take the edge off temperatures on Monday, though remaining well above normal. Temperatures rebound upwards again Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

We have a summer-like pattern for the Spring Equinox as the large UL high continues to churn over the Southwest. The high is centered over AZ and will largely be stationary through Saturday. By Sunday, it will flatten into Mexico as the jet stream, well to our north, sags south some via a couple s/w troughs. Highs will remain hot for this time of year with tomorrow a couple degrees warmer than today. Sunday will be as warm or a degree or two hotter as weak zonal flow adds a little to our warmth.

One of the s/w troughs mentioned above will send cooler air southward through the Plains, reaching the Sacramento Mountains early Monday continuing south and eastward, stalling out mid-day Monday between the Continental Divide and the AZ state line. This air quickly mixes out and begins retreating east after that. Monday's highs will fall around 5 to 10 degrees, but that will still be within record territory. Forecast for El Paso is 88, and the record is 87.

The UL ridge begins to reestablish itself off the Baja/SoCal Coast on Monday before quickly expanding eastward. By Wednesday afternoon it will be back centered over Northern Mexico near the Sonora - Chihuahua border. This is a warm/ hot pattern for us, and sure enough highs rebound quickly on Tuesday. The all-time March high temperature we broke today (and likely again tomorrow and then possibly again Sunday) may be tied or broken again by Thursday. Some minor relief may come next Friday into the weekend, but forecast uncertainty increases quite a bit Day 7 (next Friday) and beyond.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue beneath clear skies. Winds will remain light and variable though often favoring westerly.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1102 AM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Dryness will be the main fire weather concern over the next week. Temperatures most areas not only remaining at daily record levels, but also around monthly record levels. This means single digit humidity continuing along with the drying out of fuels. A back door cool front on Monday gives a slight respite from the warmest temperatures and low humidity, but Tuesday through Friday right back to the heat and dryness. Fortunately no significant winds are expected with this. Breezy afternoons are possible Sat/Sun west of the Cont Divide but that is about it. If, and when we get stronger winds, we could see very high to extreme fire danger develop.

Min RH: Lowlands 5-10% through Thursday, except Monday at 10-15%. Mountains 7-12% through Thursday, except Monday at 12-20%. Vent rates poor-fair Monday, other days Sunday through Thursday good- excellent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 58 95 58 97 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 54 91 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 52 92 52 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 93 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 47 72 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 54 93 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 87 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 52 95 52 95 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 51 92 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 61 94 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 49 95 50 98 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 55 99 54 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 55 97 55 98 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 92 54 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 95 61 95 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 94 50 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 97 50 97 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 55 95 58 96 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 92 54 93 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 50 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 52 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 46 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 58 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 47 93 49 93 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 50 88 47 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 90 51 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 50 94 48 91 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 50 90 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 57 90 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 55 94 55 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 53 93 54 92 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 55 93 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 61 89 59 86 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.