textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Temperatures near normal through the weekend with lowland highs in the lower/mid 80s.

- Mostly dry conditions through the week ahead, a much needed break after September's heavy rain. A low chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM MDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The subtropical moisture along and S of the Int'l border will drift further into MX for Tuesday as our weak upper high is replaced by a weak low over Utah. Less cloud cover is forecast with no chance of rain in the short term. Light winds with near- normal temps for Tue.

The upper low expands SE for Wed, creating a bit of forcing and very slight rain/storm chances in area mtns. Meager moisture will limit rainfall where weak convection does develop. A weak Rex block looks to form for Thu across the Four Corners, pushing the low towards the Big Bend region. Moisture levels remain modest into late week with PWs in the 0.7-0.8" range, which is enough to spark a few showers or storms in the Sacs on Thu. Gusty winds and lightning are the main hazards as the lowlands stay dry.

The upper trough looks to weaken and drift over South Texas into the weekend with not much lift or moisture to spark showers or storms Fri/Sat. Early next week, a mid-latitude trough is progged to move through the Great Basin, scooping up moisture ahead of it late in the period. Low-end rain chances return next Sun/Mon, favoring western areas. We'll see exactly how windy/wet it'll be depending on the track of the low through the Rockies. The low should also bring cooler air around the middle of next week. Until then, temps will be around normal with light winds continuing.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A few clouds will linger near the US/Mexico border through the AM, but ceilings will be unlimited today and tonight. Winds today will be generally light and variable.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 525 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Moisture and light winds will keep fire weather concerns low this week. Min RH's in the lowlands and mountains will be at or above 25% today through Saturday. Winds will be well below critical levels. There will be a slight chance for rain, especially in area mountains Wednesday and Thursday and again on Saturday. Ventilation rates will range from poor to fair the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 61 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 58 80 59 77 / 0 0 0 10 Las Cruces 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 20 Cloudcroft 43 61 43 57 / 0 10 10 30 Truth or Consequences 55 81 57 78 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 54 77 55 75 / 0 10 10 10 Deming 57 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 58 84 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 85 64 83 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 58 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 59 78 59 75 / 0 0 0 10 Fabens 62 87 63 85 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 60 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 63 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 83 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 58 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 85 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 Orogrande 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 49 72 49 67 / 0 10 10 20 Mescalero 48 73 48 69 / 0 10 10 20 Timberon 48 69 48 66 / 0 10 10 20 Winston 49 75 50 71 / 0 10 10 10 Hillsboro 57 81 59 77 / 0 10 10 10 Spaceport 55 81 57 79 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 48 78 49 74 / 0 10 10 20 Hurley 52 80 54 78 / 0 0 10 10 Cliff 56 85 57 82 / 0 10 10 10 Mule Creek 55 82 55 79 / 0 10 10 10 Faywood 55 79 57 77 / 0 0 10 10 Animas 59 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 57 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 84 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 58 81 59 79 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.