textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- We will see lower rain chances this week, with the best chances for rain in the Gila region and along the New Mexico and Arizona border.

- High temperatures will continue to run above average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands this week. We won't be as hot as we were last week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

The upper level ridge will be the main player in our weather over the next week. The upper level ridge will control how much moisture and where the moisture makes an impact as it meanders around the Southwest. Currently the ridge is centered over Arizona and the circulation around the ridge continues to pull in some drier air aloft. Like yesterday, this will again limit our rain chances. And again like yesterday, the best chances for thunderstorms will be limited to the Gila Region. The main threat from the thunderstorms will be strong outflow winds. High temperatures for today will jump back near or above the 100 degrees across the lowlands.

Tuesday will be similar with the upper level ridge centered along the New Mexico/Arizona border and that slightly closer proximity will allow our high temperatures to creep up a few more degrees which will allow El Paso the Rio Grande Valley southeast of town to hit heat advisory criteria (105F). Wednesday looks similar so the heat advisory may need to be extended into Wednesday afternoon. Also both Tuesday and Wednesday we will continue to see a chance for thunderstorms in the Gila Region, but the rest of the area looks to stay dry.

For Thursday and Friday, the upper level ridge will drift a little north to near the Arizona/Utah border. This will allow the thunderstorm threat to spread to the Sacramento mountains and the lowlands west of the Rio Grande on Thursday and we will see at least a slight chance for thunderstorms across the whole area on Friday. High temperatures both Thursday and Friday will drop a couple of degrees, but still run at or above 100F in the lowlands. For the weekend, the upper level ridge shifts closer to the Four Corners region which will again limit our thunderstorm coverage to area mountains and continue our high temperatures running near or a little above the 100F mark.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather over the next 24 hours. Our ceilings will generally be unlimited this afternoon and evening. The only exception will be the chance for thunderstorms across the Gila and near the New Mexico/Arizona border. The main threat from the thunderstorms will be strong and gusty outflow winds. Though, I am not expecting the strong, gusty outflow winds will impact the TAF sites, but the smaller KLSB airport in Lordsburg could see some wind and dust impacts. Away from the thunderstorm winds, we will see generally south winds today. We will see occasionally low end gusty winds from all of our TAF sites this afternoon. Overnight winds tonight will be light and variable or light from the south or southwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Mon Aug 3 2026

We will continue to see lower fire weather concerns this week. We will have mainly dry weather, but winds won't be much of an issues over the next 5 days. Min RH's over the next 5 days will be in the mid to upper teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Winds each day will be light, but we will see low end gusty winds most afternoons for a few hours. The one exception will be the Gila region and locations near the New Mexico/Arizona border where we can see the development of a few thunderstorms that could produce some strong and gusty outflow winds. This thunderstorm threat will continue through the end of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday we will see at least a slight chance for thunderstorms across the whole region. Vent rates will range from good to very good over the next couple days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 105 75 102 / 0 0 10 0 Sierra Blanca 67 99 67 97 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 102 70 100 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 74 101 71 100 / 0 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 56 78 53 77 / 0 20 10 30 Truth or Consequences 73 102 72 99 / 10 10 40 10 Silver City 64 94 63 92 / 20 40 30 40 Deming 70 102 69 100 / 10 10 30 0 Lordsburg 69 98 69 98 / 20 10 30 10 West El Paso Metro 76 103 76 102 / 0 0 10 0 Dell City 70 102 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 74 107 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 96 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 106 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 73 101 73 101 / 0 0 10 0 White Sands HQ 75 103 75 101 / 0 0 10 0 Jornada Range 72 102 71 100 / 0 0 20 0 Hatch 71 102 71 103 / 0 0 30 0 Columbus 74 103 73 101 / 10 0 20 0 Orogrande 71 101 70 99 / 0 0 10 0 Mayhill 61 89 58 87 / 0 10 0 20 Mescalero 61 90 58 88 / 0 20 10 20 Timberon 57 87 56 86 / 0 10 10 10 Winston 63 93 62 90 / 10 20 40 30 Hillsboro 69 100 69 97 / 10 10 30 10 Spaceport 69 102 69 99 / 0 0 30 0 Lake Roberts 59 94 59 91 / 10 50 40 70 Hurley 66 97 65 95 / 10 40 30 20 Cliff 67 101 66 98 / 20 50 30 40 Mule Creek 64 95 64 93 / 20 50 30 30 Faywood 67 97 67 94 / 10 20 30 10 Animas 70 99 68 98 / 20 20 40 10 Hachita 69 98 68 98 / 20 20 40 0 Antelope Wells 69 97 67 97 / 10 30 40 0 Cloverdale 65 91 63 91 / 30 40 60 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.