textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Thunderstorm chances expected each afternoon through Friday. Chances for isolated storms Saturday in the Sacramento Mountains, but dry elsewhere.

- Gusty outflow winds, flooding, and even some hail possible this afternoon with storms. Continued risks for flooding from storms possible again Thursday and Friday.

- Drier and warmer on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another active weather day expected this afternoon with thunderstorms that could produce flash flooding, hail, and gusty outflow winds expected today. This morning moisture has spread west across the CWA and into AZ. This will help bring good storm chances across the area this afternoon. Models have continued to suggest a storm cluster at the northern portion of the CWA and another cluster at the southwest portion of the CWA will converge later tonight and this evening before fizzling out during the overnight hours. Moisture will still be spread across the area but does look like surface dewpoints mix out more tomorrow. Main locations for storms tomorrow afternoon looks to be focused over the area mountains and western locations of the area much of the lowlands having more isolated chances.

Moisture will be on the decrease heading into Friday and even Saturday. Best moisture looks to be east of the Rio Grande which is where the focus for storms that afternoon will be, including the area mountains. Lesser instability and moisture on Friday will help work against the intensity of the storms. Drier air continues to get pushed in from the southwest leaving only enough moisture in far eastern locations and the Sacramento Mtns for storm chances. Elsewhere will be dry. Winds throughout this time and into early next week will be generally light with afternoon breezes, but no breezy or windy days expected. Models were suggesting high pressure that builds over the area early next week but most recent models are suggesting the high builds over central TX or over the Great Plains which will help keep our area "cooler". Taking a look at the extended forecast, GFS suggests a monsoonal type pattern heading into next week with rain chances but the EC still tries building high pressure over the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another round of thunderstorms today. All terminals have a good chance to see storms this afternoon. Main impacts we're expecting are flash flooding and patchy blowing dust, (which could cause lowered visibilities), gusty outflow winds and even hail. Storms are expected to be out of the area by around 10Z overnight. Expect light winds outside of thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storm chances continue each day through Friday but moisture and chances will slowly dwindle. By Saturday, the Sacramento Mtns has the best chance for storms but dry elsewhere. Sunday continues to look mostly dry but thereafter, models and guidance diverge. Thursday and Friday we can expect more flooding possible from storms. Min RHs tomorrow will stay above critical thresholds with values of 20-40% in the lowlands and 50-55% in the area mountains. Drier air pushes in from the west which will drop RHs to critical along and west of the Continental Divide Friday, but better moisture to the east. By Saturday, critical min RHs expanded eastward and looks to make it to the Rio Grande Valley with continued better moisture to the east. By Sunday, mostly dry conditions will allow the entire lowland area to dip into critical thresholds of 10-15%, with near critical RHs in the area mountains with values of 19-22%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 66 89 67 86 / 60 20 20 10 Sierra Blanca 58 82 59 79 / 60 30 40 50 Las Cruces 59 86 59 86 / 70 10 10 0 Alamogordo 61 85 63 84 / 50 20 10 50 Cloudcroft 45 64 46 65 / 60 60 10 50 Truth or Consequences 61 86 63 89 / 40 10 10 10 Silver City 54 82 55 85 / 50 40 10 30 Deming 59 91 60 93 / 50 10 20 10 Lordsburg 60 89 60 92 / 50 20 20 10 West El Paso Metro 65 87 66 85 / 60 20 20 0 Dell City 59 86 60 84 / 40 20 20 40 Fort Hancock 64 90 64 87 / 70 20 30 40 Loma Linda 59 81 60 78 / 50 20 20 30 Fabens 63 90 63 87 / 70 20 30 20 Santa Teresa 61 86 61 85 / 70 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 68 86 69 86 / 60 10 10 10 Jornada Range 60 86 61 86 / 70 10 10 10 Hatch 61 89 61 91 / 80 10 10 10 Columbus 63 90 65 92 / 40 10 10 10 Orogrande 60 83 61 82 / 60 20 10 30 Mayhill 51 75 51 77 / 60 70 10 50 Mescalero 49 75 50 76 / 40 60 10 50 Timberon 47 71 48 70 / 60 40 10 50 Winston 50 80 52 83 / 30 30 20 20 Hillsboro 59 84 60 87 / 60 30 10 20 Spaceport 57 85 59 87 / 60 10 10 10 Lake Roberts 51 83 52 87 / 40 70 10 30 Hurley 55 84 55 87 / 60 30 10 20 Cliff 55 89 55 92 / 40 50 10 10 Mule Creek 53 86 54 89 / 30 50 10 10 Faywood 57 83 57 85 / 70 40 10 20 Animas 59 90 60 93 / 40 20 20 10 Hachita 58 88 60 91 / 40 20 20 10 Antelope Wells 59 90 61 91 / 20 20 20 10 Cloverdale 56 85 58 86 / 20 10 10 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.