textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Our latest storm system has exited the region, with a fair and dry weather pattern to return and persist through the weekend and all of next week.

- Temperatures slowly climb through the weekend, dip Monday behind a cold front, then climb quickly next week to record levels.

- Saturday brings gusty winds as an upper disturbance passes from the west. Breezy winds, and single digit relative humidity will elevate fire weather to near critical conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The storm system that brought cooler conditions, strong winds, and a mix of moderate to light precipitation across the Borderland, is now off to our east, and pulling away. Behind the system we have a deep northwesterly flow spilling over the top of a E Pac ridge, into and across our area. This will mean the start of an extended fair weather pattern with dry and very dry conditions, with no precipitation expected through the next 8-10 days (or more). Temperatures will roller-coaster a bit. Today and tomorrow's temperatures will be generally steady, at about 5-8 degrees above the daily averages. We will see warming late week, through the weekend, as the E PAC upper ridge begins to shift east over the deserts to our west. Lowland highs will warm into the lower and mid 80s, near 15 degrees above normal. Through Friday we will see few clouds, and light-ish winds.

Saturday we see the southern reflection, of a trough passing well to our north, pass by, which will slightly tighten pressure gradients aloft, and induce the formation of lee troughing to our east. This will mean a breezy to low-end windy day, with west winds in the 15-25 mph range with gusts over 30-35 mph possible after mid afternoon. Not a strong wind day, but a noticeable increase. The pure westerly direction is not prime for a lot of dust issues, so not expecting a lot of impactful dust, but local areas of patchy dust are possible. The other potential impact will be with fire concerns. We will have multiple days of low RH, in the teens and single digits, that will dry fuels ahead of the winds, so conditions will be elevated to near critical for Saturday.

Sunday we will be just ahead of the next backdoor cold front, with temperatures still warming under a west wind regime. The cold front pushing down the plains, during the day, will fill in the surface trough, and we will see lighter winds. The cold front will push in from the east Sunday evening, and rush west across the Rio Grande Valley, into the SW Deserts overnight. We should see some strong and gusty east winds overnight Sunday night through Monday morning. At this time, it appears 25 to 35 mph with some stronger west slope gusts. The environment will be dry, so no precipitation is expected with the fropa.

Monday will be our only dip in temperatures for this forecast package, as we look to see a 10 degree drop in highs from our L-M 80s on Sunday. Through the day, wind speeds will drop off, and winds will shift to S and SW in the afternoon.

Tuesday begins our strong warming trend, as the upper high to our west strengthens and shifts east over our region. Once here, it parks, allowing for more drying and more warming. Temperatures are forecast to be 20-25 degrees warmer than normal by middle and end of next week. Winds will be mostly light. Conditions will be excessively dry.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

With yesterday's storm system having departed the region, it has pulled out the moisture and clouds, with a deep NW flow aloft bringing in much drier air. Thus skies will be generally SKC, with any residual clouds rapidly dissipating through the early afternoon hours. Winds will tend to be N to NE, with speeds rapidly dropping into the 4-8kt range through the forecast period. Thus VFR conditions to persist at all terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Yesterday's storm system has passed, and is well to our east, moving away. It brought plenty of clouds, and a fair amount of precipitation coverage across the region, but not a lot of precipitation amounts to the area. The SW and western portions got the best rain, with 0.50-0.70" over the Gila area mountains, along the AZ border...same for the Bootheel. Luna county got 0.25-0.30", but elsewhere barely measurable to only trace amounts. The short spike in cloud cover, cooler temperatures, and higher RH have helped to reverse the fuel drying short term, but that will quickly reverse starting today.

On the backside of yesterday's storm we are now under a DEEP NW flow pattern, on the front side of an upper level high pressure center over the E Pac, off the west coast of the Baja. This NW flow will begin a rapid, and substantial drying of the region. We will also be warming through the week, after a flat trend today and tomorrow, and despite a one-day cooling on Monday.

Saturday is our next day of Elevated fire weather, as a minor trough passes to our north, and kicks winds up into the marginal to low-end windy category. Temperatures will be well above normal. RH will drop hard today, and Friday, and be in the single-digits Saturday. Winds will be in the 15-20 mph range in the afternoon, right near RFW criteria. For now we are holding off, as fuels are near average, and winds are still borderline. However, know that the RH will be critically dry, and fuels will be trending drier. Sunday we will see more very dry conditions, with similarly warm temperatures, but winds will be much lighter as a backdoor cold front begins to push down the plains.

Sunday night and Monday, that cold front pushes across our region from the east, with a strong windshift, and gusty east winds. No moisture associated, so no precipitation is expected. Thus, for Monday - behind the front, the bump in RH is marginal, with a 10 degree drop in Monday afternoon temperatures from Sunday.

Tuesday, on through next weekend, we will see a significant warming trend as the upper high to our west begins to strengthen and move in and park overhead. We will be quite dry, with few clouds, and very low RH. Temperatures will rise to 15-20+ degrees above normal, but winds will be generally light. Thus, elevated fire conditions due to the warmth, instability, and dry conditions, but strong winds will be the missing ingredient for Critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 46 76 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 38 71 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 40 72 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 38 71 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 28 51 35 57 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 44 74 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 40 69 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 42 75 42 83 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 42 73 42 81 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 47 74 50 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 36 74 39 85 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 41 79 45 86 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 40 68 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 45 77 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 44 73 45 82 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 44 74 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 37 73 39 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 39 76 40 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 45 75 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 39 71 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 29 67 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 30 62 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 31 60 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 31 69 34 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 41 73 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 36 73 38 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 35 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 38 71 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 37 76 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 37 72 40 78 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 41 70 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 41 75 43 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 40 73 42 82 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 41 75 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 71 49 75 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.