textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 430 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

- Breezy winds this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 mph. Elevated fire danger due to dry and warm conditions.

- Temperatures well above normal through the rest of the week. Lowland highs in the lower to mid eighties may set new daily record highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Broad, low amplitude ridge persists over the western states this evening, with plenty of high level moisture sweeping through this ridge. Despite this considerable moisture, resulting cirrus bands have been quite sporadic and variable. Main impact overnight would be to hold low temps up a few degrees. Bigger picture, ridge will persist through Saturday; the only change being the ridge sharpening up a bit over the west coast in response to the upper low off the coast. Mid-level west/northwest winds (700-500mb) remain moderately strong Wednesday, especially in the zones bordering the Intl Border. Thus expect another windy day of 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Blowing dust remains somewhat a mystery as very little blowing dust was generated today under similar conditions. High temps continue to climb to near-record levels through the weekend. In fact, for El Paso, Saturday's forecast high of 87 degrees would be a new monthly record.

Still looking at a pattern change Monday and beyond, as Pacific low/trough nears the west coast and eventually moves over Arizona by Tuesday. This will turn upper flow southwest and eventually south over our area by Tuesday and Wednesday. Decent tap of sub- tropical moisture will feed into this flow Tuesday night and Wednesday, with GFS showing PWs approaching .75 inch east of the Rio Grande Valley. GFS/ECMWF similar with solution, though ECMWF about 12 hours slower. This upper pattern will synch in with backdoor/dry-line moving into the area as early as Tuesday morning. Hence chance of showers Tuesday night/Wednesday look reasonable, especially from the RG Valley east. Snow levels likely remaining too high to impact any inhabitable areas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

VMC through forecast period under northwest flow aloft. Surface winds 270-300 at 10 to 15 knots. Peak gusts around 30 knots mid- afternoon. No visibility restrictions expected. Skies SCT-BKN250 through the day and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 430 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Elevated fire danger today with Min RH 20-30% and winds out of the WNW 15 to 20 mph. Very Good ventilation this afternoon with smoke transport to the southeast.

Lighter west winds the rest of the week, below critical thresholds. Conditions becoming drier this weekend, with Min RH 10-20%. Temperatures well above normal for late February.

Forest moisture conditions are near normal with ERCs near climate averages. Fine fuels such as grasses are dry and primed for burning, however larger fuels and timber will remain low risk for fire growth. Ongoing warm and dry spell will cause ERC to increase over the next few weeks.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 53 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 48 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 47 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 48 79 41 81 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 57 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 81 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 45 75 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 47 84 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 79 43 81 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 54 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 46 83 42 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 50 86 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 51 76 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 51 84 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 48 80 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 55 81 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 46 81 39 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 46 84 40 85 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 84 48 84 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 48 78 37 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 46 72 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 42 68 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 48 68 44 69 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 41 74 37 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 48 81 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 44 81 36 81 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 40 75 30 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 77 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 82 26 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 77 23 79 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 48 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 82 46 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.