textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Warm temperatures over the next couple days, with lowland highs in the 80s. This is slightly above normal for late October.

- Widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night through Friday as moisture moves north into the region. Some stronger storms could result in flash flooding, damaging winds, and large hail.

- The flood threat lingers for eastern areas this weekend before storm chances decrease early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1028 PM MDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A very active weather pattern will bring a widespread chance of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain to Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas Thursday through Saturday. A deep moist southerly flow continues between a strong ridge of high pressure over central Texas and a deep low pressure system centered along the California coast. As the low pressure system begins to move inland. Scattered to numerous showers will occur over Arizona and western portions of New Mexico northward into the Great Basin and parts of Colorado. Favorable forcing and lift will interact with the moist unstable air mass to generate widespread thunderstorms across the local area in the afternoon and evening. The highest amount of activity will be concentrated in the Gila region and nearby areas mostly west of Rio Grande extending to the Arizona Border.

There is a a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for areas west of the Rio Grande on Thursday with possible large hail, strong wind gusts, and maybe a low probability short lived weak tornado. Widespread thunderstorms will also produce periods of heavy rain with a potential for flash flooding, especially in the Gila Region and nearby surrounding areas. A flash flood watch is in effect for that area from noon Thursday through 6am Friday morning. Potential rain amounts are between 1 and 2 inches with isolated higher amounts in the Gila Region.

The active weather pattern will continue on Friday widespread showers and thunderstorms over portions of south central New Mexico centered on the Rio Grande valley from El Paso north to Albuquerque. There will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. There will also be a chance of excessive rainfall with a potential for flooding.

A similar situation will develop on Saturday with additional excessive rainfall with a potential for flooding for areas generally east of the Rio Grande. Strong thunderstorms with large hail and strong winds will be also be possible.

The low pressure system and the moisture will lift out of the local area Sunday in to Monday with a return drier and calmer weather conditions for a few days. Long term outlook does have a chance of showers returning late next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Shower and storm chances increase through the day and this evening. Isolated showers develop during the day, but confidence is low in timing and placement. Higher confidence in direct impacts for KTCS and KDMN later today from TS with gusts to 40kts possible at KDMN. Low chance of CIGs falling to MVFR levels. Convection lifts north overnight. Light winds this morning, then gusting to 20kts from S-SE this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 537 AM MDT Thu Oct 22 2026

No fire weather concerns are forecast through the weekend. Storm chances increase out west this afternoon and evening, pushing NE and exiting the area overnight. Large hail and damaging winds are possible west of the RGV through the evening. Heavy rainfall is possible in the Gila through tonight with isolated amounts of 2-3". Lower chance of storms further east in the short-term. Winds today will be modestly breezy from the S-SE. Temperatures today will be seasonably warm with better mixing than yesterday, but not great. High storm chances push east Fri/Sat along with the flash flood and severe threat. Winds stay modestly breezy into the weekend, favoring a S-SE direction. Temps cool to near and below normal over the weekend.

Min RHs range from 50-75% in the Gila today, 25-50% elsewhere; then 30-50% lowlands and 45-75% mtns through Sat. Vent rates will be fair to very good.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 63 83 60 79 / 50 70 80 70 Sierra Blanca 58 80 56 79 / 10 50 60 50 Las Cruces 57 77 54 73 / 70 60 70 60 Alamogordo 59 80 54 75 / 30 80 90 90 Cloudcroft 45 59 42 55 / 30 90 90 90 Truth or Consequences 57 75 54 70 / 70 70 70 70 Silver City 51 69 48 66 / 100 50 30 40 Deming 55 77 53 74 / 80 40 30 50 Lordsburg 55 75 53 71 / 70 30 10 20 West El Paso Metro 64 82 61 78 / 60 70 80 60 Dell City 60 84 58 78 / 10 60 80 80 Fort Hancock 65 90 62 87 / 20 60 70 50 Loma Linda 58 77 55 73 / 20 70 80 80 Fabens 63 87 60 83 / 40 60 80 70 Santa Teresa 60 80 57 76 / 60 70 70 60 White Sands HQ 61 81 58 77 / 60 70 90 70 Jornada Range 57 78 54 74 / 70 70 80 70 Hatch 57 79 54 75 / 60 60 70 70 Columbus 59 80 56 77 / 70 40 20 30 Orogrande 58 80 55 75 / 30 80 90 80 Mayhill 50 70 47 63 / 20 90 90 100 Mescalero 49 70 46 66 / 30 90 90 100 Timberon 47 66 44 62 / 30 90 90 90 Winston 48 67 45 64 / 90 50 50 50 Hillsboro 54 74 50 70 / 80 60 60 50 Spaceport 55 75 52 72 / 70 70 80 70 Lake Roberts 48 69 44 65 / 100 50 40 50 Hurley 51 72 48 68 / 100 50 30 40 Cliff 55 75 52 72 / 100 60 30 40 Mule Creek 52 70 48 66 / 100 60 20 30 Faywood 53 71 50 68 / 90 60 40 50 Animas 56 78 53 73 / 50 20 0 10 Hachita 55 77 52 74 / 60 30 0 20 Antelope Wells 56 80 53 76 / 50 20 0 10 Cloverdale 54 73 50 69 / 40 20 0 10

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Upper Gila River Valley.