textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- We will see showers and thunderstorms continue this evening with more showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. A drying trend begins Saturday, lasting into mid- week.

- High temperatures will continue to run about 5-8 degrees above average, with triple digit high temperatures common across the lowlands into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

UL high continues to dominate our weather, centered over the Four Corners. It has shifted far enough away to allow a modest increase in moisture as well as cool the atmosphere a bit. This combined with a small MCV allowed for an increase in convection across the entire CWA. UL highs looks to move little with little change in PW, so expect Friday to feature similar conditions. HREF and other guidance agrees with this.

As we go into Saturday, the UL high will drag drier air into the CWA with dewpoints dropping below 50 and PWs under an inch. Temperatures will warm a few degrees while storm chances drop, limited to areas west of the Continental Divide. Saturday will feature our lowest storm chances, limited to the Gila Wilderness. With the source region of our air out of the northeast, temperatures will not be too hot but still close to 100 for the lowlands.

Mid-week, Wednesday or Thursday, the UL high over the Four Corners rapidly weakens with a new high becoming dominate over the Gulf of America coast. This will open the CWA to southerly flow and a true monsoonal pattern. Thunderstorm chances will increase accordingly.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

On going SHRA/TSRA will gradually diminish with most locations completely clear by 9z, but additional ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is expected again tomorrow afternoon and evening, mainly after 21z. Confidence on timing and occurrence is a bit low, so mention of thunder was omitted from this TAF cycle. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail will be the main impacts with any storms. Otherwise, expect variable skies overnight becoming mostly clear (FEW-SCT250) with more cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon and evening with bases as low as 080. Winds will be light and variable apart from thunderstorm outflows.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1206 PM MDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Generally low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Daily thunderstorm chances through mid week. Scattered mountain and isolated lowland storm chances Friday afternoon, but drier air pushes in over the weekend limiting storm chances to just the area mountains both of those days. Area mountain and locations bordering AZ look to be favored for storm chances Monday through Wednesday next week. Min RHs tomorrow across the lowlands will be near critical at 17-21% and mountain RHs of 25-40%. Near critical to critical RHs across the lowlands Saturday through Tuesday with values of 14-22%. Mountain RHs during this time will be 25-35%.

High temperatures stay 5-8 degrees above normal each day through mid-week. 20 foot winds will be light each afternoon at 5-10 mph with light and variable breezes overnight.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 100 75 100 / 40 20 20 0 Sierra Blanca 68 96 67 95 / 10 20 20 0 Las Cruces 69 98 69 98 / 50 20 20 0 Alamogordo 69 98 69 97 / 20 30 20 10 Cloudcroft 52 76 52 75 / 20 40 20 20 Truth or Consequences 70 100 71 98 / 20 20 30 0 Silver City 64 93 64 92 / 20 30 20 30 Deming 69 99 70 99 / 50 20 20 0 Lordsburg 70 99 70 98 / 30 20 20 0 West El Paso Metro 75 100 76 99 / 40 20 20 0 Dell City 72 99 71 99 / 10 20 20 0 Fort Hancock 76 103 75 103 / 10 20 20 0 Loma Linda 69 93 69 93 / 20 20 20 0 Fabens 75 101 74 100 / 20 20 20 0 Santa Teresa 72 98 72 98 / 50 20 20 0 White Sands HQ 73 99 74 98 / 40 20 20 0 Jornada Range 70 99 70 98 / 40 20 20 0 Hatch 69 102 70 101 / 50 20 20 0 Columbus 73 99 73 99 / 50 20 20 0 Orogrande 69 97 69 97 / 30 20 20 0 Mayhill 58 87 58 86 / 10 20 20 10 Mescalero 57 88 57 86 / 20 50 20 20 Timberon 56 85 55 84 / 10 30 20 10 Winston 60 92 61 90 / 10 20 30 10 Hillsboro 66 98 68 97 / 40 20 30 0 Spaceport 68 99 68 97 / 40 20 30 0 Lake Roberts 58 93 59 91 / 10 50 20 40 Hurley 64 95 65 95 / 30 20 20 10 Cliff 66 100 66 98 / 20 50 20 40 Mule Creek 64 96 64 94 / 20 50 20 40 Faywood 66 95 67 94 / 30 20 30 10 Animas 70 99 70 99 / 60 10 20 0 Hachita 68 97 69 97 / 60 20 20 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 69 96 / 70 0 30 0 Cloverdale 65 92 66 92 / 70 10 30 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.