textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the end of the week. Very dry out west. - Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend with lowland highs around 100 degrees. Trending wetter for next week, especially in area mountains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

No change in the forecast for the rest of the week as the upper high sits over the Mid-Atlantic through Fri. With troughing over the Northwest, a subtropical moisture plume remains over eastern NM and west TX. Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances (10-30%) into the weekend as high pressure aloft stretches westward and cuts off the moisture from the south. Gusty winds and brief downpours will be the main threats for areas to the east. Gusty outflows to 40 mph and blowing dust will remain the primary hazards for the El Paso area, but with low impacts. Areas to the west stay dry and will see lighter SW flow.

For the 4th of July, an upper high establishes over southern NM, keeping most of the region dry (PWs ~0.75"). Scattered thunderstorms develop over the Sacs in the afternoon, drifting southward into the lowlands for the evening. Gusty outflows and a shower/storm are possible into the evening along and E of the US-54 corridor. Warm, calm, and dry conditions are forecast otherwise with lowland highs near 100 degrees.

A more active monsoon pattern looks to set up around this new upper high for the first half of next week. Moist, SE flow reaches further west through S NM with storm chances favoring area mountains beginning Mon. Scattered mtn and isolated lowland storms is the most likely scenario into the middle of next week with storm motion generally to the southwest. We'll see where the high sets up and if any impulses come across the region to provide more than just orographic lift. PWs climb to 1-1.2" into midweek with a low chance of reaching the 1.3-1.4" range, which would be above the 90th %-ile for early July. Temps hold near normal into next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds AOB 8kts through the AM from the S-SW, then occasional gusts in the afternoon, lighter than previous days. Isolated TS develop to the east during the afternoon with a possible outflow boundary approaching KELP around sunset from the SE.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 922 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for the Gila National Forest today and tomorrow due to dry air moving in from Arizona. Min RHs today will range between 8-13% today before falling to 5-10% tomorrow in the Gila National Forest.

Moisture for the rest of the week will be confined to Hudspeth and Otero Counties, with precipitation chances increasing for the Sacramento Mountains tomorrow. The holiday weekend will see temperatures rising to around the 100-degree mark before a new monsoon pattern may decrease temperatures slightly early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 74 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 65 90 64 92 / 10 20 10 20 Las Cruces 66 97 65 98 / 0 0 0 10 Alamogordo 69 97 67 97 / 0 10 0 20 Cloudcroft 51 74 50 75 / 0 20 10 30 Truth or Consequences 65 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 90 60 93 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 64 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 96 63 97 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 67 95 66 97 / 10 20 10 20 Fort Hancock 72 98 71 99 / 10 20 10 20 Loma Linda 67 91 66 92 / 0 10 0 20 Fabens 72 99 71 100 / 10 10 0 10 Santa Teresa 69 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 73 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 10 Hatch 65 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 10 Columbus 71 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 20 Mayhill 56 85 55 86 / 10 20 10 40 Mescalero 54 85 54 86 / 0 20 10 30 Timberon 53 82 52 83 / 10 20 10 20 Winston 55 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 62 97 63 98 / 0 0 0 10 Lake Roberts 53 91 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 59 93 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 58 95 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 57 91 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 62 92 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 63 97 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 96 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.