textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 423 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

- A Pacific cold front will arrive Friday evening, bringing scattered rain showers overnight into Saturday. A few bands of heavier rain will be possible, especially across West Texas.

- Breezy and cooler on Saturday, with lowland highs in the lower 60s. Temperatures look to remain slightly below normal into next week with midweek precipitation chances for Southwest New Mexico.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Pacific low currently moving ashore in Southern California will be the primary weather factor for Friday. Ahead of it, we'll see high clouds moving in early Friday morning. SSW flow aloft will promote moisture increases overnight, with PWs jumping to 0.8" across South-Central New Mexico and West Texas by Friday afternoon. Slight negative tilting within the trough axis aloft and very favorable diffluent flow ahead of the system will lead to the development of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Banded shower activity will move across much of the region between 5PM-11PM Friday night, with a few bands leading to heavier rain rates and localized flooding. PoPs favor areas east of the Rio Grande, including El Paso, Hudspeth, and southern Otero Counties. Current forecast shows widespread rain amounts in the 0.20-0.50" range, with a few spots up to 1.00" east of El Paso. If any flooding does occur, it'll likely occur across West Texas.

As quick as this system arrives, it'll progress east away from us on Saturday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some lingering rain showers Saturday morning across South-Central New Mexico as the system lifts out. Some of the higher elevations of the Sacramento Mountains may even see an overnight rain/snow mix. Conditions on Saturday will be cooler, with lowland highs only reaching the lower 60s. We'll also see breezy west winds behind the cold front, generally 15 to 25 mph through the afternoon hours.

Cool but dry weather expected Sunday-Monday with another shortwave ridge in place. Temperatures will run 4 to 8 degrees below normal for mid-November, with lowland highs in the lower 60s and some chilly mornings in upper 30s/lower 40s.

Another shortwave trough moves across the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Recent model runs (both GFS and ECMWF) have shifted this low further north, swinging it across the Four Corners. Any precipitation chances look to miss us to the north. NBM guidance still has mentionable rain chances for Southern New Mexico, but I expect that to disappear in the coming days.

Long term forecast, looking at a large-scale low pressure system over the Western US late next week. Lots of uncertainty with the evolution of this system, but looks like an active period. Both global models place the El Paso forecast area in a dry-slot, limiting QPF somewhat. Will keep an eye on this pattern over the next several days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 423 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Showers with embedded thunderstorms expected this afternoon, continuing into the overnight hours but looks like it moves out by around 08Z. KELP has the best shot to see a storm this afternoon. KDMN, KLRU, and KTCS will have a chance for VCSH later this afternoon but not confident enough to mention a PROB30 or TEMPO. Light winds through the period with speeds generally 10KT or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 423 AM MST Fri Nov 13 2026

Low fire weather concerns through the week ahead. Min RH values stay above critical thresholds each day. Rain chances return this afternoon with continued showers in the evening hours before pushing out in the early morning hours on Saturday. Min RHs increase today to 40-50% in the lowlands and 45-55% in the area mountains. Lowland min RHs stay the same Saturday but mountain RHs increase to 60-90%. Min RHs decrease slightly again Sunday due to dry conditions. Min RHs generally stay 40-50% in the lowlands and 60-90% in the area mountains. Models are suggesting the rain chances we were seeing previously for Tuesday are dwindling and may just bring breezy conditions rather than rain.

20 foot winds will stay light each afternoon at 5-10 mph except for Saturday afternoon as winds will be breezy with speeds generally 10- 20 mph. Temperatures will stay near normal today but becomes below normal Saturday through mid-week next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 50 65 48 63 / 80 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 47 61 45 60 / 90 0 0 0 Las Cruces 45 62 41 61 / 60 0 0 0 Alamogordo 46 63 40 62 / 90 30 10 0 Cloudcroft 33 37 28 41 / 90 30 30 0 Truth or Consequences 44 63 40 60 / 30 0 0 0 Silver City 40 53 34 57 / 60 40 10 0 Deming 44 62 39 62 / 40 0 0 0 Lordsburg 43 60 39 60 / 50 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 51 65 49 63 / 70 0 0 0 Dell City 49 66 46 64 / 90 10 0 0 Fort Hancock 51 70 50 67 / 80 0 0 0 Loma Linda 46 58 43 57 / 80 10 0 0 Fabens 49 67 48 65 / 70 10 0 0 Santa Teresa 47 64 46 62 / 70 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 50 64 46 63 / 80 0 0 0 Jornada Range 44 63 38 62 / 70 0 0 0 Hatch 45 66 39 65 / 50 0 0 0 Columbus 48 65 45 64 / 40 0 0 0 Orogrande 47 63 43 61 / 80 10 0 0 Mayhill 38 51 35 54 / 90 30 20 0 Mescalero 38 49 32 53 / 90 40 40 0 Timberon 35 49 30 52 / 90 30 10 0 Winston 36 54 31 55 / 40 10 0 0 Hillsboro 42 61 37 60 / 50 10 0 0 Spaceport 43 63 37 61 / 50 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 52 29 58 / 70 50 10 0 Hurley 39 57 34 59 / 50 10 0 0 Cliff 44 60 36 63 / 70 50 10 0 Mule Creek 41 54 34 59 / 50 40 10 0 Faywood 43 57 37 59 / 50 10 0 0 Animas 45 63 42 62 / 50 0 0 0 Hachita 43 62 39 61 / 40 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 45 62 42 62 / 60 0 0 0 Cloverdale 45 56 42 57 / 70 10 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.