textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- A rare late-season risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms South- Central New Mexico and Far West Texas until early Friday morning. Storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds, and localized flash flooding.

- More storm chances over the weekend, mostly east of the Rio Grande. Severe weather chances will also continue during this time. Highest local risks across Otero and Hudspeth Counties.

- Drier weather expected early next week, but another round of rain chances looks likely after next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Upper trough currently moving into the Great Basin region with energy diving down the west side which will help cutoff a low which will move into SW AZ by Sat morning. Do not see much difference in the upper pattern across the CWA today into Sat. SSW flow aloft with a pseudo dryline setup near the RGV will bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms late afternoon and evening to eastern zones. Plenty of shear, mostly speed and instability of around 500-1500J/kg CAPE. Current thinking is the tornado threat is minimal with higher LCL's and not much low level backing. There will be a significant hail and wind threat into the mid evening mainly RGV east. This setup will be nearly the same for Saturday. It does look like a better chance for some multiple rounds of thunderstorms Sat and there will be a higher chance for flooding, but storms will still be moving quickly. May need a Flood Watch, but will hold off for now.

Heading into Sun/Mon, the upper low will slowly open up as it moves across the central Rockies. This will keep a weak upper trough lingering around the area and we keep some ESE surface winds over southeastern CWA. NBM PoPs of slight chance near RGV to likely east looks good. Could still see some severe storms these days but shear will not be as impressive, but pretty good instability remains. Temperatures will still remain about 5 degrees above normal during this time.

Another trough starts to approach the West Coast Wed-Thu and our low level winds again to S to SE and tap some good moisture. Chance PoPs return areawide by the end of the period. Temperatures will continue to remain near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

SCT080 SCT-BKN150 BKN250. Scattered BKN-OVC050CB 3-5SM TSRA...mainly from a Silver City-Deming line east. By 04Z thunderstorms mostly east of the RG Valley and persisting until around 12Z. Large hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots with some of these storms. Surface winds south/southeast 10-15 knots with some gusts to 25 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM MDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Fire threats will remain low throughout the period with near average temperatures and rain chances, especially eastern zones almost daily. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal with min RH's 25-30% southwest and 50-60% east. Winds will not be an issue and will remain below 15mph except near thunderstorms. Vent rates will be good to very good Sat and mainly good on Sun.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 61 82 58 78 / 80 60 70 10 Sierra Blanca 57 80 54 76 / 50 60 80 30 Las Cruces 56 77 52 74 / 70 50 50 10 Alamogordo 57 78 53 74 / 90 80 90 30 Cloudcroft 43 57 40 55 / 90 80 90 40 Truth or Consequences 55 72 51 71 / 70 60 30 10 Silver City 50 68 42 67 / 30 40 10 0 Deming 55 78 49 75 / 40 40 10 10 Lordsburg 55 74 47 73 / 10 10 0 0 West El Paso Metro 62 81 59 77 / 80 50 70 10 Dell City 59 81 56 76 / 70 70 90 60 Fort Hancock 63 88 60 84 / 60 60 70 20 Loma Linda 56 75 53 71 / 60 60 90 30 Fabens 61 85 58 82 / 70 50 80 20 Santa Teresa 59 80 55 76 / 80 50 50 10 White Sands HQ 60 80 56 76 / 90 60 80 20 Jornada Range 56 77 51 75 / 80 50 60 10 Hatch 56 78 52 76 / 50 50 30 10 Columbus 58 81 54 78 / 20 30 10 0 Orogrande 56 77 53 74 / 70 70 80 20 Mayhill 49 66 46 65 / 80 90 90 50 Mescalero 47 68 44 65 / 90 80 90 30 Timberon 45 64 42 62 / 80 90 90 60 Winston 47 66 39 66 / 60 50 20 10 Hillsboro 53 72 46 72 / 40 50 20 10 Spaceport 53 74 50 72 / 60 60 40 10 Lake Roberts 45 67 32 67 / 40 50 10 0 Hurley 50 71 42 70 / 40 40 10 10 Cliff 52 74 39 71 / 20 40 0 0 Mule Creek 50 68 34 69 / 20 30 0 0 Faywood 52 70 46 69 / 40 40 10 10 Animas 55 76 48 76 / 0 10 0 0 Hachita 55 77 48 75 / 10 10 0 10 Antelope Wells 55 79 49 79 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 52 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Otero Mesa- Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Flood Watch through late Saturday night for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.