textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

- Near critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico Sunday. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with dry air could lead to wildfires. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms east of the US-54 corridor each day. Temperatures will be typical of early July, with lowland highs in the upper 90s to 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A large upper trough moves through the northern Rockies through Mon, inducing lee troughing along the High Plains. Mainly dry conditions are expected in the short term as dry, SW flow persists across the Four Corners region. Some moisture (PWs 1.1-1.2") lingers in far west TX for Sun, allowing for isolated showers and storms to develop in the afternoon and evening, mainly in Hudspeth. Gusty outflow winds to 40 mph are the primary hazard with possible blowing dust into El Paso late in the day. Rain chances will be near zero outside of far west TX Sun with dew points in the 30s. Otherwise, SW winds of 15-25 mph are forecast during the day, strongest to the north and west where fire danger is highest.

The upper high strengthens over the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by midweek with persistent troughing over the Northwest. This will set up somewhat of a battle between moist, SE flow from the Gulf and dry, SW flow to the west. Areas E of the US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances through midweek as a modest moisture plume sets up overhead. Models have trended drier for us over the last couple days with a weaker moisture plume. PWs hold steady at or just above 1" in far west TX with a possible decrease later in the week depending on the track of a shortwave trough flushing out moisture to the east. Winds remain on the breezy side from the southwest for western NM through midweek. Heading into the holiday weekend, moisture levels look to creep up area-wide with better storm chances in the high terrain, but mainly dry for the lowlands. Temperatures continue their slow cooldown to slightly below normal into midweek, then rebounding slightly.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Winds stay somewhat breezy tonight from W with gustiness persisting for KELP to 25kts. More consistent gusts to 25kts develop during the day from W-SW, a bit stronger for KTCS and KDMN. Patchy BLDU cannot be ruled out near KDMN with VIS as low as 3 SM in the afternoon. Isolated showers will be monitored through the overnight south of KELP but should stay dry. Diurnal convection develops S-SE of KELP in the afternoon which may produce gusty outflows to 35kts and BLDU late in the period. Mostly clear skies; FEW-SCT110 develop during the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Near Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico this weekend as a jet streak crosses the Central Rockies. Drier air will bring an end to rain chances today and Sunday, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 12 to 18% causing a few hours of Red Flag criteria for Gila National Forest and portions of Grant/Sierra/Catron Counties. Fuel moisture is currently at climatological peak dryness and ongoing drought across western New Mexico has ERCs at the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be possible next few days.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest New Mexico through most of next week, with little to no rain chances. Winds decrease slightly Monday/Tuesday (southwest 10 to 20 mph), below critical thresholds, but dry air will remain in place. More favorable moisture will exist further east across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, including Lincoln National Forest where isolated showers and thunderstorms can be expected most days next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 77 100 76 98 / 0 10 10 10 Sierra Blanca 69 95 66 92 / 20 30 40 20 Las Cruces 69 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 70 98 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 75 54 74 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 70 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 63 90 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 69 100 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 75 98 75 97 / 0 10 10 10 Dell City 71 99 70 97 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Hancock 74 101 73 98 / 10 20 30 20 Loma Linda 70 92 68 90 / 0 20 20 10 Fabens 74 100 73 99 / 0 20 20 10 Santa Teresa 72 97 71 96 / 0 10 10 10 White Sands HQ 76 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 70 101 68 99 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 74 100 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 97 69 95 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 61 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 58 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 84 54 82 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 59 88 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 67 95 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 65 97 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 57 90 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 65 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 63 96 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 62 91 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 66 93 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 67 97 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 66 97 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 96 67 94 / 20 0 0 0 Cloverdale 65 90 64 88 / 20 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Sunday for South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.