textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Increasing moisture starting Tuesday will lead to widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms. Best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday with a risk of heavy rain and flash flooding along and east of the Rio Grande. Strong winds and hail will be possible as well.

- Warmer and drier conditions return by Sunday with some lowland areas nearing 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

June opens up with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s today and moisture from the Gulf entering the lower Rio Grande Valley, with rain chances limited to the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains on the eastern side of our CWA. Southern New Mexico will remain dry. The moisture will advance along the Rio Grande Valley on Tuesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along of the Rio Grande, with a 30-50% chance of precipitation likely for the El Paso metro area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with some storms, so the risk for localized flooding is not out of the question.

Storm coverage expands on Wednesday as the moisture moves westward due to shortwaves aloft moving around a closed low in the Baja California. Temperatures will fall back to the mid to upper 80s as a result. Gusty winds and small hail are possible for the area. Moisture lingers through at least Friday with a chance of thunderstorms continuing area-wide. Dry, warm air moves in as the upper low passes through on Saturday. Any rain chances next weekend will be relegated to the Sacramento Mountains. Temperatures will warm up again on Sunday, and maybe 100-degree temperatures are possible for the Rio Grande Valley.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Some mid and high-level clouds are expected east of the Rio Grande, but ceilings will be unlimited for the most part today and tonight. Winds will be light, but some low-end wind gusts are possible this afternoon. Rain chances are minimal today, being relegated to east of the Rio Grande. Some of these storms near KELP and KLRU will be high-based and produce wind gusts over 40 kts, but not included in the TAFs due to the isolated coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 AM MDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moisture will be gradually increase from east to west over the next couple of days with rain chances also increasing. Isolated coverage is expected over the lowlands through this evening and Tuesday with scattered coverage in the Sacs. Areawide chances are expected for Wed-Fri with some locally heavy rain and possible flooding, especially on area burn scars. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees below normal and RH's generally above 20% by Wed. Drier air returns this weekend and some lowlands could be approaching 100 degrees with RH's down near 10%. Winds through the period will be under 15 mph except from thunderstorm outflow winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 97 69 91 / 0 10 20 50 Sierra Blanca 62 91 60 85 / 10 30 30 70 Las Cruces 65 94 60 89 / 0 10 10 30 Alamogordo 67 92 61 87 / 10 60 30 30 Cloudcroft 49 70 45 66 / 10 70 30 70 Truth or Consequences 66 92 62 87 / 0 40 20 40 Silver City 57 88 56 84 / 0 10 10 50 Deming 60 96 60 93 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 59 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 20 West El Paso Metro 70 95 67 90 / 0 10 20 50 Dell City 62 92 59 86 / 10 50 40 40 Fort Hancock 68 98 66 94 / 0 20 20 60 Loma Linda 64 88 60 83 / 0 30 20 50 Fabens 67 99 64 93 / 0 10 10 50 Santa Teresa 65 94 62 89 / 0 10 20 40 White Sands HQ 75 94 68 89 / 10 20 20 30 Jornada Range 62 93 60 88 / 0 20 20 30 Hatch 66 96 61 91 / 0 20 20 30 Columbus 67 97 66 93 / 0 0 0 30 Orogrande 66 92 61 86 / 10 40 20 40 Mayhill 55 80 51 76 / 20 80 40 90 Mescalero 54 79 50 76 / 10 80 30 70 Timberon 51 77 47 73 / 10 60 30 60 Winston 48 84 52 79 / 0 40 20 70 Hillsboro 64 91 61 86 / 0 20 10 60 Spaceport 63 92 57 87 / 0 30 20 40 Lake Roberts 48 89 52 85 / 0 30 10 70 Hurley 57 91 56 86 / 0 10 10 40 Cliff 46 95 52 91 / 0 10 0 50 Mule Creek 40 90 48 87 / 0 0 0 40 Faywood 60 89 58 85 / 0 10 10 50 Animas 60 94 59 91 / 0 0 0 30 Hachita 61 94 59 91 / 0 0 0 20 Antelope Wells 60 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 20 Cloverdale 57 87 56 87 / 0 0 0 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.