textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 217 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Strong cold front arriving Monday morning will bring gusty east winds, much cooler temperatures, scattered wintry precipitation to southern New Mexico and Far West Texas.

- Snow accumulations expected for Sacramento Mountains, Otero Mesa, and Hudspeth Highlands on Monday. Wintry mix of rain, sleet, and snow possible for El Paso and Las Cruces.

- Temperatures returning closer normal for New Year's Eve with dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1030 PM MST Sat Dec 27 2025

Our latest subtropical moisture plume has come and brought light rain to our western zones this morning. The best of that moisture has now shifted east, and we are under somewhat drier air. We are still under a deep southwest flow on the front side of our next upper trough, swinging east across the SW Deserts. A weak pacific front, and falling heights and cooler temps aloft will allow for a cooler Sunday, with a period of sunshine, before high clouds move back over again. Temperatures will remain above normal, but drop into the L and M60s, about 6-9 degrees cooler than Saturday. The day should also be dry, with lighter NE winds, turning N and NE later in the day, also helping to put a lid on the daytime heating.

In the evening and overnight hours Sunday into Monday, we will get our next weather feature of importance, with potential for significant impacts over our region. A polar cold front will drop out of W Canada, and rush quickly S and SW into, and through our area in the the evening hours. For most areas, this will initially be a dry frontal passage, due to limited moisture in place over the region, and the front actually bringing drier air from the north. The first noticeable impact will be shifting and increasing winds tomorrow night and through the day on Monday. Winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph, higher over west slopes of area mountains. Next will be the cooler air filtering in, and the combo of wind and cold air, making for some pretty low wind chill conditions. The SACs could see 5 to -5F wind chills, with our eastern lowlands seeing wind chill temperatures in the teens.

Initially, much of the area is dry with this feature, but deeper low level moisture will ride over the cold front wedge, from the SE and move NW back over our region. This will saturate our low levels and produce precipitation over our eastern and central area, do to the upglide, and pull from above under a jet entrance. Temperatures will be too warm to snow in the evening hours, and early overnight hours, but by 12Z (earlier east) we should see precipitation become snow. The El Paso/Las Cruces areas will likely see rain overnight Sunday night, with rain mixing with snow after midday Monday, with a possible afternoon mix of rain and snow, becoming all snow Monday evening.

Grabbing these totals from the previous discussion because they still look to represent what we see in the latest models: Current snowfall totals look to be heaviest in Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Here's a look at most likely ranges at it stands today: - 3-6" Sacramento Mountains (Cloudcroft, Timberon, Mayhill) - 2-4" Otero Mesa (Crow Flats) - 2-4" San Augustin Pass (US-70) - 1-2" Northern Hudspeth County (US 62-180, Cornudas, Dell City) - 0-1" I-10/I-25/US-54 Corridors (El Paso, Las Cruces, Alamogordo)

The heaviest snowfall amounts are expected to be over the SAC/Guads, Otero Mesa, and highlands of N Hudspeth county, with lesser amounts south and west. Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday, with some warming, but still a chance for mixed precipitation early. High pressure aloft will expand north over our region, and lead to a more stable atmosphere, with precipitation ending, and temperatures beginning to warm for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday and Friday of next week a large upper level trough off the Baja looks to open up and lift across the Southwestern States. As it does, we will see another window of precipitation potential these days. It will be a much warmer scenario, with rain being the likely form over all the lowlands, and mid elevations. Models have jelled into a common solution for next weekend, with a passing upper ridge looking to bring back fair, dry, and more mild conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 452 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

Starting out at VFR with SCT-BKN100. These clouds dissipating next several hours, but after 18Z increasing SCT-BKN150 BKN250. Aft 06Z...increasing SCT-BKN070 with a chance of BKN050 -SHRA, mainly Rio Grande Valley east, and ocnl OVC030 5SM -SN over the Sacramento Mtns. Surface winds northwest 6-9 knots becoming north/northeast 8-12 knots as cold front pushes west through the area. Towards 12Z the winds increasing to east 13-18G25 knots. Gusts to 35 knots possible along west slopes of terrain.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 453 AM MST Sun Dec 28 2025

One last day of mild weather before a cold front brings in dramatic shift in winds and temperatures Monday. Winds turning east/northeast around 10-20 mph, with gusts of 30-40 mph along west slopes of terrain. Some lowland rain showers and mountain snow showers developing early Monday morning, with some snow mixing in over the lowlands later Monday, mainly from the Rio Grande Valley east. Precipitation ending by Tuesday morning. Clearing skies and a warmup after Tuesday, with another chance of showers for Wednesday night and Thursday. Much warmer system with little or no snow at higher elevations.

Min RH: Lowlands 20-30% today, increasing to 40-55% Monday/Tuesday, then decreasing to 35-45% Wednesday through Saturday. Mountains 25-35%, increasing to 50-70% Monday into Saturday. Vent rates poor-fair through Thursday, then fair-good Friday and Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 37 43 32 52 / 50 60 40 20 Sierra Blanca 31 40 29 47 / 50 40 40 20 Las Cruces 33 41 28 47 / 40 60 40 30 Alamogordo 31 41 27 48 / 30 70 40 20 Cloudcroft 17 22 19 35 / 30 70 50 20 Truth or Consequences 31 40 30 48 / 20 50 30 20 Silver City 33 40 29 46 / 20 50 40 30 Deming 36 44 30 51 / 30 60 40 30 Lordsburg 37 45 32 50 / 20 30 30 20 West El Paso Metro 38 44 36 49 / 50 50 40 20 Dell City 31 40 28 46 / 60 70 40 20 Fort Hancock 37 48 34 54 / 50 40 40 20 Loma Linda 31 36 28 43 / 60 60 50 30 Fabens 35 46 33 52 / 60 50 40 30 Santa Teresa 36 42 32 48 / 50 50 40 30 White Sands HQ 36 40 32 47 / 40 70 40 30 Jornada Range 33 40 29 46 / 30 70 40 30 Hatch 33 42 31 49 / 20 60 40 30 Columbus 39 46 34 49 / 40 50 40 30 Orogrande 33 39 27 46 / 40 70 40 30 Mayhill 17 30 19 46 / 30 70 40 20 Mescalero 18 33 19 46 / 30 60 40 20 Timberon 17 30 17 41 / 40 70 40 20 Winston 22 34 21 43 / 10 50 20 20 Hillsboro 31 39 29 46 / 20 60 40 30 Spaceport 29 39 28 46 / 20 60 40 20 Lake Roberts 28 40 26 49 / 20 50 40 30 Hurley 33 41 27 47 / 20 50 30 30 Cliff 31 48 29 53 / 20 40 30 30 Mule Creek 31 46 29 51 / 10 40 20 20 Faywood 34 38 30 44 / 30 60 40 30 Animas 39 47 32 49 / 20 20 30 20 Hachita 36 45 30 48 / 30 30 30 20 Antelope Wells 39 49 31 49 / 30 20 30 20 Cloverdale 40 44 32 45 / 20 20 30 20

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin.

NM...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday evening for East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.