textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1003 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- Seasonable temperatures through the weekend with lowland highs in the lower/mid 80s.

- A slight chance of mountain showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing moisture this weekend with a chance of rain by Saturday night and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

WV imagery shows weakening upper ridge extending from SoCal down to northern Mexico. Meanwhile small Pacific upper low now over southern Utah with clouds and a few showers covering much of Colorado and starting to seep south into New Mexico. Elsewhere Rachel continues to churn well off the southern Baja coast, while a weak upper low sits well off the California coast.

Wednesday and Thursday...persistent low level moisture has allowed good afternoon CU buildups today and we should see some more of that on Wednesday. Strong capping between 500-700 mb will stunt any growth however. The upper low over Utah will continue to drop south, over northern Arizona/New Mexico line Wednesday afternoon, then down to southern New Mexico/west Texas by Thursday morning. Expect a few showers/thunderstorms to develop over the Gila/Black Range Wed afternoon. A few showers could develop with the upper low's southeast movement over the central CWA Wed night. Slight chance of showers continue on Thursday for the mountains and possibly west Texas.

Friday through Sunday...upper ridge mostly vanished as the offshore Pacific low and TS Rachel merge and move to near the northern Baja by Sunday. Mid level flow ahead of this merging system will increase out of the south, slowly bringing some moisture with it. PWs increase to around one inch. Thus by Saturday afternoon much of the area could see isolated showers or thunderstorms. By Saturday night and Sunday strong mid-level flow develops, increasing moisture with the help of some Rachel's moisture. Expect scattered showers/thunderstorms Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon and evening.

Monday and Tuesday...good moisture continues and both the GFS/ECMWF show the remnants of Simon moving up to the area by Monday night into Tuesday. Thus, expect some heavier rainfall and a risk of flooding Mon night/Tues as PWs approach record levels again. The most current model runs show areas from Sierra and Dona Ana Counties east could see the most rain. Ensemble QPF percentiles from both GFS/ECMWF are both much lower than deterministic so confidence still on the low side but definitely worth watching.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1003 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions through the period with SCT060 becoming SKC next few hours. SCT-BKN060 developing again Wednesday after 18Z. After 21Z...a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm over the Gila/Black Range...with a few showers possibly spreading southeast from this area toward evening. Winds variable AOB 10 knots through the entire period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The region continues to dry out from last week's rain, though light winds and Min RH values above 30% across the region will keep fire weather conditions low today. A slight chance of rain is possible in the area mountains both Wednesday and Thursday, but the lowlands will remain generally dry into the weekend. Ventilation rates will range from Poor to Fair on Tuesday and Wednesday before rising to Good on Thursday as transport winds from the east increase to 10-15 mph.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 62 86 64 85 / 0 0 10 10 Sierra Blanca 59 82 58 80 / 0 0 10 10 Las Cruces 58 83 60 82 / 0 0 10 0 Alamogordo 59 82 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 42 65 41 63 / 0 10 10 20 Truth or Consequences 56 82 58 80 / 0 0 10 10 Silver City 50 79 53 76 / 0 10 20 10 Deming 58 85 59 84 / 0 0 10 0 Lordsburg 58 85 60 84 / 0 0 10 0 West El Paso Metro 63 86 65 85 / 0 0 10 10 Dell City 58 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 64 90 65 88 / 0 0 10 10 Loma Linda 58 79 58 77 / 0 0 10 10 Fabens 62 89 64 87 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Teresa 60 85 63 84 / 0 0 10 10 White Sands HQ 63 86 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 58 84 60 83 / 0 0 10 0 Hatch 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 10 0 Columbus 60 87 62 86 / 0 0 10 0 Orogrande 58 83 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 75 47 72 / 0 10 10 10 Mescalero 47 76 47 73 / 0 10 10 20 Timberon 46 71 46 69 / 0 10 0 10 Winston 47 76 48 73 / 0 10 10 10 Hillsboro 58 82 58 79 / 0 10 10 10 Spaceport 56 83 57 81 / 0 0 10 10 Lake Roberts 43 79 43 76 / 0 20 20 20 Hurley 53 81 54 79 / 0 10 20 10 Cliff 47 87 47 84 / 0 10 20 10 Mule Creek 44 83 43 81 / 0 10 10 10 Faywood 55 80 55 78 / 0 10 20 0 Animas 59 86 60 85 / 0 0 10 0 Hachita 58 84 59 83 / 0 0 10 0 Antelope Wells 60 85 60 84 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 57 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.