textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 948 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with southwest New Mexico and the high elevations having the best chance. - Storms will be capable of localized flooding and gusty winds. Areas of thunderstorm-generated blowing dust possible in the lowlands this evening.

- Friday and Saturday will see continued storm chances before retreating to the mountains and SW New Mexico on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 948 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

An elongated upper-level ridge stretches from the Plains to the Carolinas. On the west edge of the high, a plume of mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California will increase shower and storm coverage for the region this afternoon and evening. The most recent GFS and ECMWF runs have lowland PWAT values running between 1.3- 1.4". Southwestern New Mexico and the upper elevations have the best chance of seeing scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Some lingering clouds from overnight showers in southwestern New Mexico could slow the start of lowland isolated thunderstorms until later in the afternoon. Localized flooding and gusty outflow winds are the main hazards with these storms. The past few HRRR runs have been consistent with forecasting a large outflow with 50 mph gusts blowing in from Chihuahua around sunset. To reflect this, I put a mention of areas of patchy blowing dust for much of the lowlands from 6-9 PM this evening, including the El Paso and Las Cruces metro areas.

Moisture will increase on Friday, and both the GFS and the ECMWF have lowland PWAT values ranging between 1.4-1.5". The WPC has a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the Gila National Forest and areas west of the Continental Divide, while the rest of the region has a Marginal Risk for Friday. El Paso and Hudspeth Counties have a 30-50% chance to see storms in the afternoon/evening hours on Friday. Like Thursday, localized flooding and gusty winds will be the main hazards with these storms. On Saturday, the upper-level high pressure system will begin to move back over the high plains. There will be enough moisture to continue the streak of isolated to scattered thunderstorms, though the mountains will be favored over the lowlands.

PWAT values are expected decrease to 1.2-1.25" on Sunday if the latest GFS and ECMWF are any indication. This is enough moisture to fuel scattered mountain thunderstorms and isolated lowland thunderstorms, though coverage will be favored west of the Continental Divide. Monday and Tuesday's storm chances are currently expected to be similar to Sunday.

The long-range model runs begin to diverge in terms of rain chances beyond Wednesday. The GFS has the upper-level high stationed over the Southeast, which would allow for moisture to move into the region by mid-next week. The ECMWF on the other hand has a center of high pressure over Arizona/New Mexico, which would limit convection. I'm leaning toward the ECMWF's forecast, though that may change as subsequent model runs begin to converge.

Temperatures for the next week will continue to run about 3-7 degrees above average for most of the region, with lowland high temperatures consistently in the mid 90s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 948 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Continued spotty -SHRA along the international border, otherwise skies ranging from FEW-SCT120 at the start of the observation period. Surface winds generally from 250-290 at 6-8 kt this morning before increasing to 10-12 kt and shifting to 230-270 this afternoon and evening. Isolated TSRA developing after 18Z, with VCTS and SCT-BKN100 skies around each of the TAF sites after 21-22Z. Areas of patchy BLDU from storm-generated outflows moving up from Chihuahua could reduce visibilities at KELP, KDMN, and KLRU after 00Z. Storms could contain outflows up to 40 kt. Lingering TSRA possible into Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 948 AM MDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Moisture from the Gulf of California will initiate shower and thunderstorm development for most of the region this afternoon and evening. Localized flooding and gusty outflow winds, some of which may generate patchy blowing dust, will be the main hazards with these storms. Min RHs 25-35% with good overnight recoveries. Light southwest winds at 5-10 mph will keep ventilation rates Good for this afternoon and Friday afternoon.

The WPC has a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Gila National Forest and areas west of the Continental Divide, while the rest of the region, including Lincoln National Forest, has a Marginal Risk for Friday. Localized flooding will be most prominent in the afternoon hours on Friday for the forests. Continued moisture on Saturday and into early next week will keep fire danger low for the region. Ventilation rates on Saturday will range from Poor to Fair as the winds die down. Ventilation rates will return to good on Sunday as the prevailing flow shifts to out of the southeast and wind speeds increase.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 73 96 72 97 / 30 20 40 10 Sierra Blanca 66 92 65 92 / 30 20 50 20 Las Cruces 68 94 67 95 / 20 20 20 10 Alamogordo 69 95 68 95 / 30 20 30 30 Cloudcroft 51 72 51 71 / 20 40 40 80 Truth or Consequences 69 92 70 93 / 30 20 30 10 Silver City 61 85 61 87 / 40 30 10 40 Deming 67 94 67 96 / 30 20 10 10 Lordsburg 66 88 66 92 / 40 20 10 0 West El Paso Metro 75 95 73 96 / 30 20 40 0 Dell City 70 97 69 97 / 20 20 40 10 Fort Hancock 72 99 72 99 / 40 20 50 10 Loma Linda 67 89 66 90 / 30 20 50 20 Fabens 71 97 70 97 / 40 20 50 0 Santa Teresa 70 93 69 95 / 30 20 40 0 White Sands HQ 72 95 71 95 / 30 20 30 30 Jornada Range 68 94 67 95 / 30 20 20 30 Hatch 69 97 68 98 / 30 20 20 30 Columbus 71 94 71 96 / 40 20 20 0 Orogrande 67 93 67 94 / 30 20 30 10 Mayhill 57 85 57 84 / 20 50 30 70 Mescalero 55 83 55 83 / 20 40 30 80 Timberon 54 81 54 81 / 30 30 30 50 Winston 57 83 57 84 / 30 60 30 60 Hillsboro 66 92 66 92 / 30 30 20 40 Spaceport 66 93 65 94 / 30 20 30 30 Lake Roberts 56 84 55 86 / 40 40 20 70 Hurley 62 88 62 90 / 40 20 10 40 Cliff 64 91 64 93 / 40 30 10 20 Mule Creek 61 86 61 89 / 40 30 20 10 Faywood 64 88 64 89 / 40 20 10 40 Animas 66 87 67 91 / 30 30 20 10 Hachita 65 89 66 92 / 30 20 30 0 Antelope Wells 64 87 64 90 / 30 30 20 10 Cloverdale 61 81 61 84 / 40 30 20 30

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. NM...None.