textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above 100 degrees. The warmest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread Heat Advisories in effect. - Very dry early this week before some moisture gives the high terrain a slight chance of thunderstorms mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Mid/upper high center firmly in place now over the Sonoran and Chihuahua Deserts of Mexico with ridges extending east and west from the center. Some very high level moisture continues to drift eastward over the top of the ridge across much of New Mexico. Driest air with respect to PW is over northern New Mexico, but only slightly higher over our CWA of southern New Mexico/West Texas. PWs range from .30 inches north to .70 inches far southeast, while 500mb temps are very warm at around -1C to -2C degrees. Little change in any of these features through Tuesday, meaning little in the way of clouds, let alone any chance of rain. Heat will continue to build with lowland highs today just below Advisory criteria (105 deg) and Monday just at criteria for much of the lowlands.

Tuesday through Friday...subtle changes begin in this period. The upper high loses its elliptical shape and becomes more circular, thus allowing some sub-tropical moisture to advect in. At mid levels, 500mb temps cool down to around -5C to -7C degrees, enabling slight instability of the airmass to redevelop. The westerly flow aloft across the top of the high may also allow weak disturbances to track eastward across the CWA. All this to say a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms return to the mountains Wednesday through Friday, and to the lowlands toward evening Thursday and Friday. Despite the increase of cloud buildups and chance of rain, heat will continue to build. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the peak heating, with lowland high temps ranging from 103-108 deg. Will likely extend Heat Advisory into Tue/Wed with issuance this afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday...upper high sinks a bit further south into Mexico, allowing the Polar jet to drop over the southern Rockies with much drier air, ending any chance of rain. This will also likely bring some breezy afternoon winds each day, elevating fire concerns.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VMC through forecast period under dry, west flow. Skies beginning clear, then FEW-SCT250 overnight. Clear skies and unlimited visibility again on Monday. Breezy surface winds this evening, generally 250-280 at 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Winds will diminish overnight, becoming 270-320 at 5 to 10 knots. A few gusts up to 25 knots across SW NM again tomorrow.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Dry and hot conditions through the coming week ahead will keep fire conditions elevated, as humidity and fuel moisture decrease. Above normal temperatures will continue through this entire period. ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile (zone 113 should reach this level by mid week), and are expected to persist for the week. No significant winds are expected through Friday. However the long range forecast does show Saturday/Sunday winds becoming breezy and pushing fire conditions to near critical.

Min RH: Lowlands...5-10% through Wednesday, then 10-16% Thursday and Friday. Mountains...5-12% through Wednesday, then 15-25% Thursday and Friday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 76 105 76 106 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 69 101 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 68 102 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 102 70 105 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 53 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 68 103 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 62 96 62 99 / 0 0 0 10 Deming 67 105 68 106 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 100 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 74 104 75 105 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 68 103 67 105 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 73 106 74 108 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 70 97 70 99 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 72 106 72 107 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 103 70 104 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 76 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 67 102 66 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 66 106 67 107 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 73 105 74 106 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 100 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 59 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 57 92 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 56 89 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 58 96 61 96 / 0 0 0 10 Hillsboro 66 102 69 102 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 63 102 64 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 55 97 53 100 / 0 0 0 10 Hurley 62 99 65 102 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 60 101 56 104 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 58 97 52 100 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 65 99 67 100 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 65 101 68 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 65 101 67 103 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 67 102 69 103 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 96 66 98 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-Western El Paso County.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin.