textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Storm chances shift east on Sunday and Monday, limited mostly to Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Storms will be capable of large hail, gusty winds, and localized flash flooding.

- A few days of drier weather expected midweek before rain chances return Thursday into next weekend.

- Typical late-October temperatures, with lowland highs in the lower to mid 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sat Oct 24 2026

For the third day in a row, we have seen multiple rounds of severe weather move across the region. The main culprit in all this weather has been a slow moving upper level trough centered over Arizona and a surface trough (convergence zone) oriented north/south across southern New Mexico. Throw in some moisture from the south and you have all the ingredients for severe weather. The reason we are stuck in this pattern is a large upper level ridge centered over the gulf coast to our east. On Sunday the upper level trough will push a little further east and that will help push the main threat for strong thunderstorms a little further east. The best chances for thunderstorms on Sunday will be in Hudspeth and Otero Counties, but I can't rule out that El Paso or Dona Ana Counties will see a stray thunderstorm. High temperatures on Sunday will run a few degree below average.

For Monday the upper level trough will finally begin to lift out to the northeast, but not after giving one more round of thunderstorms to Otero and Hudspeth Counties. High temperatures on Monday will cool a couple more degrees from Sunday's highs. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry as drier air sweeps into the area from the west. High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday will run very near seasonal averages. Late on Wednesday an approaching upper level trough from the west, will begin to turn our flow aloft to the southwest. While at the surface we will see a return of the moist southeast winds. We will see a chance for rain on Thursday and then a good chance for rain on Friday as the upper level trough approaches the region. Precipitable water values (PWs) will approach one inch both Thursday and Friday which is well above average for this time of year, so they may be a threat for more heavy rain for the end of next week. High temperatures for the end of next week will continue to run near seasonal averages.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VMC prevailing at local terminals today. Isolated TS across W TX and SE NM this afternoon and evening. Storms may be too far east to directly affect KELP/KLRU, thus no mention in TAFs this cycle. Surface winds 170-200 at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon, becoming 320-060 AOB 5 knots tonight. Skies FEW-SCT080, SCT-BKN250 today with greater cloud coverage east of KELP.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Dry conditions for Gila NF, but scattered thunderstorms are expected again across Lincoln NF this afternoon. Storms will be capable of gusty winds and localized flooding. Prevailing wind out of the SSW at 5 to 10 mph, with Good vent rates today. Lighter winds Monday/Tuesday will keep vent rates Poor to Fair through most of the afternoon hours.

Moisture shifts further east early this week, leading to a brief window of dry conditions area wide. Rain chances return Thursday into next weekend, leading to another round of wetting precipitation over the forested areas. ERCs are very low at the moment, so no fire danger expected into early November.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 57 73 56 76 / 30 10 10 0 Sierra Blanca 52 71 50 74 / 60 50 20 0 Las Cruces 52 71 51 73 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 70 49 72 / 40 10 10 0 Cloudcroft 39 52 37 54 / 40 10 10 0 Truth or Consequences 49 68 49 72 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 43 67 45 69 / 0 0 10 0 Deming 50 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 47 73 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 73 58 75 / 20 10 10 0 Dell City 54 71 52 73 / 80 50 10 0 Fort Hancock 59 79 57 82 / 70 40 30 0 Loma Linda 52 67 51 69 / 70 30 10 0 Fabens 57 76 56 79 / 70 20 10 0 Santa Teresa 55 72 54 74 / 10 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 56 72 55 75 / 20 10 10 0 Jornada Range 52 71 50 74 / 10 0 10 0 Hatch 51 73 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 53 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 69 50 72 / 40 10 10 0 Mayhill 44 64 42 67 / 60 30 10 0 Mescalero 43 63 41 64 / 40 10 10 0 Timberon 42 59 40 62 / 70 20 30 0 Winston 37 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 47 69 47 73 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 68 48 72 / 10 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 36 68 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 42 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 45 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 41 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 45 68 47 70 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 49 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 48 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 73 49 74 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Western El Paso County.

NM...Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southeast Tularosa Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.