textproduct: El Paso

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Above normal temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas through the week ahead. Lowland highs will range upper 90s to 105, which will approach daily records.

- Very limited thunderstorm chances in the mountains for today and Tuesday. Staying dry elsewhere.

- Slight chances for thunderstorms return to the mountains on Wednesday, and across a broader area from Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The subtropical ridge remains parked over the area, with very dry air aloft and at the surface. Surface dewpoints even at daybreak today were in the upper-30s over much of the lowlands, but they have not mixed out much since then. We did see a modest increase in mid-level moisture, which bumped the PWAT up from 0.72 to 0.91 on the EPZ sounding between 00Z and 18Z.

A few weak radar echoes are noted over Socorro County, where dewpoints in the 40s are more common. Cu buildups over the Black Range and Sacramentos are fairly flat based on webcams.

The forecast going forward is largely unchanged, with minimal precip chances today, and just a slight tick up tomorrow in the higher terrain. Temperatures will climb a degree or two by Tuesday as well, prompting the expansion of the Heat Advisory northwards up the Rio Grande into El Paso.

The upper ridge will begin to drift west again on Wednesday, with northerly flow perhaps sparking a few storms over the Sacramentos. Low level east flow Wednesday night will boost low level moisture, and weak disturbances aloft dropping in from the north will help increase thunderstorm coverage across a wider area on Thursday and Friday.

The ridge will again refocus to our east towards the weekend, as a trough digs into the Pacific Northwest, breaking down the western edge of the ridge. This will pull a plume of monsoonal moisture up from the south, favoring thunderstorm coverage, but mostly west of the Rio Grande.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours, with light and variable winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue this afternoon and again tomorrow, though an isolated thunderstorm or two could crop up Tuesday afternoon, with a risk of dry lightning strikes.

Min RH values are touching 10 percent in the lowlands today, and may drop another point or two before sunset. Expect similar values on Tuesday, with poor recovery tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will increase in the high terrain Wednesday, and over a wider area Thursday and Friday. Towards the weekend, a more typical monsoon moisture plume looks to set up, but favoring areas west of the Rio Grande.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

El Paso 75 105 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 71 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 103 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 77 102 73 100 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 62 78 63 77 / 10 20 0 30 Truth or Consequences 74 101 76 100 / 0 0 10 0 Silver City 64 96 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 72 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 64 103 64 103 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 77 104 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 67 104 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 72 107 71 106 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 67 98 68 96 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 73 105 74 104 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 75 103 75 104 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 75 104 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 72 103 73 102 / 0 0 10 0 Hatch 71 104 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 74 104 74 103 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 70 101 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 61 91 61 89 / 0 30 0 40 Mescalero 58 90 58 88 / 10 30 0 30 Timberon 55 88 59 86 / 0 20 0 20 Winston 62 92 66 92 / 0 20 0 10 Hillsboro 71 101 73 100 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 71 102 72 101 / 0 0 10 0 Lake Roberts 51 93 55 93 / 0 10 0 10 Hurley 65 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 64 103 70 103 / 0 0 10 0 Mule Creek 57 98 60 99 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 71 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 69 104 71 103 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 68 102 70 101 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 68 102 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 64 97 66 97 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-Western El Paso County.

NM...None.