textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions with diurnal fog conditions will dominate through Friday. A chance of rainshowers returns to the North Coast this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Atmospheric conditions will remain quiet through the end of the week. Considerable low level moisture will linger in the wake of the front and with warm air aloft, expect considerable low cloud cover and fog in the interior valleys and along the coast. All of this added low cloud coverage should enable nighttime inland tempertures to remain unseasonably warm. Otherwise, expect dry weather until late Friday night when the stalled out upper low over the central Pacific edges closer to the coast.

The exact timing and location of trough passage remains uncertain, yet most ensemble members show the center somewhere between 35-40N and 130-135W by 12Z Sunday. CW3E is showing both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles having the moisture flux with this next system to remain under 250kg/m/s. Vorticity values are currently forecasted to remain low as well. Both of these factors together combining make it seem like there is not a high chance of any major precip at this time. The NBM model agrees with a 50% probability of >0.25" and a 25% of >0.5" in the Humboldt Bay area by Sunday morning. More rain is possible in the King range and interior mountains of Humboldt and Del Norte Co. NBM data does show a subtle hint for some convection or thunder (<15%) Saturday. Global models show a low to mid level speed max approaching the area Saturday as cold core edges its way over NW CA. More details on the extent of this weekends weather will be clearer soon. DS

AVIATION

High dew points and abundant moisture from recent rain will bring the potential for shallow ground fog across the area, bringing periodic IFR to LIFR conditions. Any fog and stratus will lift and scatter shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. JB

MARINE

Winds remain light nearshore with gusts forecast to remain below 10 kts. The northern outer waters could see gusts over 20 kts through late morning, but these will move farther from shore through the day today. The sea state consists of northerly wind waves of 2 to 5 ft, a meager northwesterly swell of 2 to 3 ft, and a decaying southwest swell of around 4 to 5 ft. Combined seas generally fall to below 5 ft outside the far northern waters. Northerly winds increase slightly Friday, but gusts are likely to remain below 20 kts outside the far northern outer waters and near Cape Mendocino. Seas will build Friday as a long period northwest swell fills in at around 8 ft at 15 seconds. Combined seas could exceed 10 ft in the outer waters Friday and early Saturday. Light winds are forecast through the weekend. JB

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.