textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Gusty north winds each afternoon will be the highlight of the forecast through the weekend with otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Winds will weaken with warmer conditions early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong north winds will build each afternoon this weekend. Strongest winds expected along the shore and over higher terrain areas of the interior. Peak gusts today and Sunday near 40 kts.

-Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through early next week.

-Slightly cooler conditions into the weekend and warming through next week.

LONG TERM

Winds will begin to weaken Monday through mid next week as high pressure settles further onshore. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by mid week. Any HeatRisk currently appears minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus. Models diverge on the pattern late next week. Will seasonal but dry zonal flow is most likely, roughly 30 percent of models show a weak trough that could bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the northern half of the area around next weekend. /JLW&JHW

AVIATION

Generally, VFR conditions are expected for Northwest California early this morning through this evening. Mid to high level clouds are moving through the region very early this morning. Low level VFR ceilings can be expected, especially for Del Norte, where northerly winds will persist into the day. MVFR ceilings, along with periods of light drizzle, could occur along the Humboldt Coast as winds become calm before sunrise. Gusty north winds are anticipated throughout the region this afternoon and evening with gusts from 25 to 35 knots and localized gusts up to 40 knots. /JLW

MARINE

Strong to gale force gusts are forecast across the coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino.

Early this morning, Winds will slightly diminish as a shortwave trough moves through. However, winds will rapidly accelerate in the wake of the trough today with a moderate to strong pressure gradient near the coast. Expect near-gale to gale force wind gusts developing across all coastal waters by this afternoon and persist through early next week, especially for the outer waters and downwind of Cape Mendocino. Gusts from 34 to around 45 kts are likely, with the strongest in the lee of Cape Mendocino. A Gale Warning is now in effect for the northern waters from this afternoon through late Sunday night/Monday morning. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the southern waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Building north winds each afternoon into the weekend will increase fire weather concerns. Winds will be strongest near shore but also along interior ridges and well aligned valleys. The strongest winds will approach gusts near 40 mph by this afternoon. The strongest gusts will focus closer to shore today. Winds today will generally pull in more moist marine air. This will help keep temperatures subdued with only moderate minimum RH around 30 percent. That said winds will also slightly tamp down overnight RH recovery closer to 80 percent at low elevations and 50 percent higher up through Saturday.

High pressure will shift more onshore by Sunday. Strong afternoon winds will continue, but the focus of stronger winds will shift closer to the rim of the Sacramento Valley, especially in Lake County. Winds will pull in drier air by Sunday, supporting very dry afternoon conditions in eastern Mendocino, Trinity, and Lake Counties with minimum RH near 15 percent. Overnight RH recovery will continue to worsen with upper elevation recoveries very poor by Monday morning. Winds will begin to weaken early next week but very dry conditions will remain with increasing day time temperatures.

All that said, fuels generally retain a spring character. Although ERC values are forecast to jump up near record values for May, grasses remain mostly green for all locations but some of the hottest valleys in Lake and Mendocino Counties. Heavier fuels are retaining moderate moisture. Despite critical weather variables, fuels are very unlikely to support extreme fire at this time, hence a Red Flag Warning is not currently expected for these conditions in Lake, Trinity, or Mendocino Counties. This event, however, will likely push fuel towards a drier and more conducive state for fire in the coming weeks. /JHW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-470.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.