textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain Saturday night and again Monday afternoon in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. * Minor to near moderate coastal flooding is likely around Humboldt Bay from November 8th to 10th.

* Breaking waves of 20 to 25 feet are expected Sunday and these may conicide with a very high tide generating significant wave run-up.

* Stronger storm systems with more rain possible starting late next week.

SYNOPSIS

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue today across much of the area. Southerly winds are expected to increase this afternoon with some light rain expected in Del Nort county this evening, spreading south into Humboldt county overnight. Dry weather is expected to return Sunday. A series of weak fronts is expected to bring occasional light rain Monday through Thursday. The potential for heavier rain increases late in the week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains over the area this morning, but it is starting to get pushed to the east as a cold front approaches the area. After a chilly start with a warm and dry afternoon is expected. This front looks to bring some light rain starting late in the evening to Del Norte county and spreading south into northern Humboldt overnight. The current forecast is showing rainfall amounts in the mountains of Del Norte county less than a half inch. These amounts are expected to diminish quickly to the south and east. Humboldt Bay and the Eureka area may see less than a tenth of an inch. Southerly winds are expected to increase with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible in Del Norte county. Farther south and east in Trinity, Mendocino and Lake counties dry weather is expected with a mix of sun and clouds.

Sunday once any lingering showers move out in the north, dry weather is expected across the area. The clouds may take some time to clear, especially in the north. Fairly widespread low clouds are expected in the valleys in the north and it is uncertain how far south these will make it.

Another front is expected Monday afternoon now. Again this looks like it will mostly impact northern Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Southerly winds will increase again with this one as well, with gusts to around 25 mph over the higher terrain in the north. Nearly an inch of rain is expected in the mountains of Del Norte county, but the amounts drop off quickly to the south and east. The NBM shows a 40 percent probability of rainfall over an inch in the Del Norte Mountains. Less than a quarter inch is expected in the Eureka and Humboldt Bay area.

Tuesday and Wednesday is now is expected to see mainly dry conditions with a break between systems. Three of the four ensemble clusters show no rain and the fourth only shows some light rain. The models are showing some weak ridging, but the wind field remains light. This will likely yield some warmer temperatures, but the humidity may remain higher with more clouds around.

Thursday and Friday the models have backed off about 24 hours on the expected rainfall from yesterday. The heavier now looks to be late Friday and Saturday. So the trend of the models keeping the significant rain around day 8 continues. Two of the model clusters are showing 1 to 2 inches in the 24 hours ending at 4pm on Saturday. MKK

AVIATION

High pressure is starting to get pushed off to the east as a weak cold front approaches. Conditions remain mainly VFR with some occasional mist bringing it down slightly. Towards morning some low clouds are expected to drop ceilings to MVFR or IFR. The night satellite is showing these off the coast, but it is uncertain when they will move onshore. This afternoon these may scatter out as mixing increases ahead of the front. Southerly winds are expected to pick up in KCEC with gusts to 25 kt possible in the evening. Rain is expected bring down conditions overnight at KCEC and KACV. The rain is not expected to make it down to KUKI, but some valley clouds could form overnight. MKK

MARINE

Northerly winds continue south of Cape Mendocino while winds are starting to turn southerly north of Cape Mendocino as a front approaches the area. This afternoon and evening southerly winds are expected to increase to 15 to 25 kt out of the south with the strongest winds in the north. Late tonight and Sunday these winds are expected to diminish and turn northerly. These are only expected to increase to around 10 to 15 kt. Southerly winds return again on Monday with another front and speeds are expected to be fairly similar. These are both fairly shortlived so wind waves will not have too much chance to build up. Lighter southerly winds are expected Tuesday with stronger southerlies returning mid to late in the week.

An active wave environment continues across in the waters with a 12 to 14 foot wave at 16 seconds. This is expected to slow diminish tonight before it another larger swell builds in on Sunday. This one is currently expected to build to around 16 to 20 feet at 17 seconds. This is expected to slowly diminish Monday and early Tuesday before another swell arrives Tuesday night.

Coastal Flooding

Water levels inside Humboldt Bay continue to run 1.2 to 1.3 feet over the astronomical tides. Southerly winds on Saturday may increase these slightly with waters levels inside Humboldt bay reaching 8.8 to 9.0 ft on Sunday. The large swell on top of this high water may impact some areas even inside Humboldt Bay.

Outside of Humboldt Bay on the open coast Crescent City and Arena Cove tide gauges are running 0.5 to 1.0 feet above astronomical tides. The southerly winds may increase this slightly too. These are expected to remain below flood advisory levels, however the large breaking waves may briefly flood roads and parking lots that are exposed at high tide. MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for CAZ101- 103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for PZZ450-455- 470-475.

Hazardous Seas Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for PZZ450-470.