textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions with diurnal fog conditions will dominate through Friday. A chance of rainshowers returns to the North Coast this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Atmospheric conditions will remain quiet through the end of the week. Considerable low level moisture will linger in the wake of the front and with warm air aloft, expect considerable low cloud cover and fog in the interior valleys and along the coast. All of this added low cloud coverage should enable nighttime inland tempertures to remain unseasonably warm. Otherwise, expect dry weather until late Friday night when the stalled out upper low over the central Pacific edges closer to the coast.

The exact timing and location of trough passage remains uncertain, yet most ensemble members show the center remain below the 40N latitude. CW3E is showing both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles having the moisture flux with this next system to remain under 250kg/m/s. Vorticity values are currently forecasted to remain low as well. Both of these factors, in addition to the quick moving nature of the storm system, makes it looks like there is not a high chance of any major precip for this weekend at this time. The NBM model agrees with this, as it shows a 50% probability of >0.25" and a 20% prob of >0.5" in the Humboldt Bay area by Sunday morning. The bulk of the rain will most likely be focused in the King Range and the interior mountains of Humboldt and Del Norte counties, leading to potential travel hazards due to occasional rockslides and decreased visibilities and traction on mountain roads. NBM data does show a subtle hint for some convection or thunder (<10%) Saturday. Global models show a low to mid level speed max approaching the area Saturday as cold core edges its way over NW CA. The lapse rates could support light convection, yet the storms look to be too warm to create any convective hazards. Next week shows rainshowers for Mon, dry conditions Tue, and rain for the North Coast Wed before a dry end to the work week. DS

AVIATION

VFR conditions have prevailed across the area with broken ceilings hanging around 10 kft. VFR conditions will most likely persist all through the evening and overnight with only a very slight (10%) chance of isolated IFR fog along the coast. Ceilings may lower to around 4 kft but will most likely remain VFR with mostly gentle to clam north winds. /JHW

MARINE

Mostly gentle north wind shave persisted over the waters today with combined seas generally below 4 feet. Winds will very slightly increase Friday, but even then only rare gusts near 18 kts are expected in localized ares int he far outer waters and just downwind of Cape Mendocino. Calmer north winds will then continue through the weekend. With such calm winds, short period seas will be meager at most. That said, a long period northwest swell building up to 8 feet on Friday will some modest seas into the weekend. Mostly calm seas will most likely persist into early next week. /JHW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.