textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Much warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue to peak Sunday, Conditions will slowly ease early next week with rain potential mid week.

KEY MESSAGES

-Interior highs in the low 80s today with minor HeatRisk.

-Chance (50%) of wetting rain showers mid next week.

DISCUSSION

A ridge of high pressure will continue to peak today. On Saturday, the warmest interior valleys managed to reach up to 83 with very dry RH. Clear skies arched all across the area. Weak wind and clear skies even helped conditions near the coast get close to 70. Near identical conditions will continue Sunday.

There is high confidence that high pressure will gradually weaken by early next week with a low pressure system moving in along shore. This will bring still much above average, but slightly cooler conditions, especially at the coast where marine influence will resurges.

The path, strength, and moisture associated with this low remains highly variable. Overall rain chances have decreased slightly around Wednesday but increased later in the week. Most model ensemble members show a trough far north of the area mid week with a cutoff lie meandering along the central coast. This setup provided high uncertainty, but would be conducive to moisture pulling up the central alley and generating week storms and showers. Overall chance of wetting rain remains around 50% with chance of 0.5 inches now near 5%. Regardless for rain amount , gusty north winds will build behind any rain late next week. /JHW

AVIATION

Prevailing VFR conditions with high clouds is expected for all TAF sites through the period. Light and variable winds, becoming W at 5-10 kts in the afternoon. HREF model suggest a shallow marine layer developing across the coastal waters and pushing onshore Sunday night into Monday, with the potential of IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday morning for the coastal terminals. /ZVS

MARINE

Relatively calm conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday, with light and variable winds and low seas below 5 feet. Northerlies will begin to increase Tuesday night in the wake of a weak cold front, with moderate to strong breezes possible by mid-to-late week.

However, there is a high uncertainty regarding the strength of the northerly winds as a positively tilted cut-off low approaches the area from the west before tracking southward. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest generally light to gentle breezes persisting across the waters through mid-week, with moderate to strong breezes over the outer waters late in the work week. /ZVS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.