textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will trend lighter Thursday and much lighter through the holiday weekend

-A brief chance for very light rainfall or light drizzle early next week

-Chance for morning coastal stratus and fog will persist, with increasing opportunity for longer duration stratus and fog through the weekend

-Conditions will warm through Thursday with highs in the interior peaking near 90.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...(Saturday through Tuesday)

High pressure weakens over the weekend, and daytime highs will trend cooler. The combination of light northwesterly flow and a shallow marine layer will present a setup for more persistent coastal stratus with some fog likely through the weekend. Most ensemble members continue to show a trough dipping across the Pacific Northwest early next week. Very light showers to light drizzle will be possible. There is currently 20 to 35% chance for 0.1 (wetting rainfall) over northern Humboldt through Del Norte. This will be dependent of how far south the low tracks, and if it ends up farther north, little to no rainfall will fall through the already dry antecedent environment.

AVIATION

A thin band of stratus in between Patrick's Point and the Eel River Delta is slowly eroding away. These IFR conditions are expected to become VFR like the rest of the the forecast area. Gusty NW winds along the coast are expected, increasing the likelihood for some bumps due to weak Low Level Turbulence. There are growing chances for low, IFR ceilings returning to the North Coast tonight from 06Z through 15Z. Forecast confidence in FG is growing as high pressure build, compressing the marine layer. Clearing to VFR is expected again tomorrow by 19Z (+/-1hr).

Inland areas remain VFR with breezy afternoon winds. Cumulus is forecasted to build near higher terrain in Trinity and Mendcino counties; no rain showers are forecasted. DS

MARINE

Buoy observations are reporting nearshore gusts near 20kts and steep, short period waves dominating the sea state. In the outer waters, Gale Force gusts are forecasted and model data is upholding is claim with a 4mb pressure differential modeled between 10nm to 60nm out to sea. While the pressure gradient driving these winds will shift slightly over the next few days, strong winds with near-gale force gusts and short period seas will persist. High resolution ensemble model data is showing high (>80%) confidence for gale force winds in the northern outer waters. The chance for Gale force winds in the southern waters are slightly less likely at 30 - 50%.

The synoptic weather pattern shifts this weekend as a storm in the gulf of alaska weakens the pacific high pressure center. This shift will result in a weakening of the surface pressure gradient and therefore, weaker winds. Significant wave heights will lower as a result, possibly under 5ft by Monday afternoon. Looking into next week, winds remain calm and a westerly mid-period swell enters the waters. DS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450- 455.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning until 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475.