textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Generally warm conditions continue this week. Coastal drizzle is possible Saturday for Humboldt, with some light rainfall over Del Norte. More significant warming will begin late this weekend and next week.

DISCUSSION

The southern periphery of a stalled frontal boundary over the Pacific Northwest is bringing increased cloud cover and occasional shots drizzle to the Far North Coast and mainly Del Norte County. While quickly weakening, the front will sag farther south late Friday through Saturday. Recent model runs push the front south over Del Norte. Rainfall will be very light, but NBM now holds a 60 to 70 chance for over 0.2 inch total for Del Norte.

A dominant ridge of high pressure will also be building over the rest through the week. There is high confidence the ridge will begin to greatly amplify through the end of the weekend and next week. Near record high temperatures will be possible with some of the warmest valleys in Mendocino and southern Lake, possibly exceeding 90. By Sunday, NBM probabilities for high temperatures over 85 increase to around 40% for Mendocino and western Lake, and over 70% for southern Lake. On Monday, chances increase to above 80% for all of southern Mendocino and Lake Counties. Chances for over 90 degrees are 15 to 20% for southern locations such as Ukiah and Clearlake. Probabilities for over 90 degrees are much higher (65 to 75%) for far southern Lake County early to mid next week. These temperatures will bring some Minor level HeatRisk, with perhaps very localized Moderate levels for far southern Lake County. Most interior valleys could see temperatures in the 80s, while coastal areas could see high temperatures in the high 60s to low 70s through that period.

AVIATION

A weak weather system moving by to the north of the area is bringing some lower clouds to the coastal areas. Some drizzle is possible towards morning, but it looks conditions will remain mainly MVFR with occasional IFR conditions. This will spread up the river valleys as well, but is not expected to make it to UKI. These clouds are expected to lift later this morning, but lower again in the evening.

MARINE

A weak weather system moving by to the north of the area has weakened northerly winds. North of Cape Mendocino they are fairly light and there may be some local areas of west to southwest winds. These remain breezy south of Cape Mendocino, however the buoys show them to be slightly lower than expected. So have lowered the wind drive waves to around 4 to 5 feet and lowered the winds slightly as well. Currently there is also a northwest swell moving through the waters. It is around 8 or 9 feet at 13 seconds. This pattern is expected to continue through Friday night. There is also a small long period southerly swell expected to move into the waters on Thursday and continue through much of the period.

Saturday a final weak frontal boundary moves by the area and high pressure starts to build into the again. Northerly winds will spread across the waters. These are expected to peak around 20 to 25 kt Saturday night and Sunday morning and then start to diminish again next week.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.