textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain this evening.

* Briefly warmer and drier conditions into Monday.

* Another round of light rain around Tuesday.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting late next week and into mid November

SYNOPSIS

Light drizzle will pass the area this evening. Warmer and drier conditions briefly build into Monday with another weak front and light rain Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

A weak, elongated cold front is currently crossing the area. Compared to previous forecasts, the front as stalled offshore. While reflectivity indicating rain has been falling over the coastal waters all day, no rain has hit shore as of early afternoon. By the time the front crosses shore this evening, light rain will most likely fall on the low end of forecast with only a 20% chance of 0.1 inches close to shore. There is little evidence of meaningful wind along the front. At the very least, the front will pull in clouds and moisture that makes frost early Sunday morning much less likely than previous nights. That said, if skies manage to clear before midnight, a late frost advisory could be needed for some areas.

Drier air will quickly build in Sunday with skies quickly clearing all across the area. High pressure briefly building into Monday will allow some interior highs to return near 70 for at least one afternoon. There is high confidence that a modest cutoff low and cold front will quickly cross the area around early Tuesday. Like the current system, this low shows uncertainty regarding rainfall, but generally only low potential. Most likely rainfall is currently 0.05 to 0.15 inches pretty evenly spread across the area. NBM shows only a 25% chance of any location over 0.25 inches and a 40% chance of little more than drizzle. Moderate south wind is expected along this front with some gusts near 20 mph most likely.

Behind this system, there is much greater forecast uncertainty beyond Tuesday. Most (70%) of ensemble members show weak high pressure through the end of the week with seasonably cool and mostly dry conditions. That said, about 30% of member continue to show potential for another cold front, though essentially none show any rainfall potential over 0.5 inches. Long range models suggest the next chance for heavier rainfall is around November 10th with a 45% chance of rainfall over 1.0 inch in that period. /JHW

MARINE

Weak north winds have persisted throughout the waters today. Some moderate winds will build int he southern waters behind a cold front Sunday, but only isolated gusts are expected to reach 20 kts with short period seas below 5 feet. Nearly calm winds return by Monday. A strong cold front is expected to pass around Tuesday with some moderate south winds ahead of the front switching northerly behind the front mid week. With little short period seas in the short term, the sea state will be controlled by a series of swells. Most notably a mild 3 foot, mid period swell from the southwest through mid week. Of larger note, a long period swell will build Monday up to 7 feet at 18 seconds, brining a risk of sneaker waves near shore. /JHW

BEACH HAZARDS

A very long period northwest swell arrives Sunday afternoon and into Monday. This will bring an extreme threat for sneaker waves as winds remain light and other wave groups remain limited. This swell starts at around 2 ft at 21 secs and builds to around 6 ft at 17 secs by Monday morning. A Beach Hazard Statement will be needed for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.