textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Warm and sunny weather Saturday. Some weak clipping fronts will bring small chances of very light coastal drizzle or a few showers between periods of rebounding warm temperatures. Northerly winds will remain gusty, particularly through early next week.

DISCUSSION

The weekend began with a warm, sunny, and pleasant Saturday. A weak cold front will clip the region on Sunday. This will bring cooler temperatures and a small chance for a few light showers, or more likely light drizzle.

A strong Pacific ridge will generally remain in control as additional weak fronts attempt to briefly flatten it, introducing more very slight chances for light showers on occasion, mainly in Del Norte County. Chances for a wetting rainfall (0.1 inch or higher) only reach 35% to 45% late next week and increase some next weekend. There will periods of rebounding high temperatures between the fronts.

Northerly winds will remain breezy. A cutoff low to the south will further tighten the pressure gradient against the restrengthening ridge Monday and Tuesday. Northerly winds will increase in response and will be quite gusty Monday afternoon in particular. Forecast soundings indicate well-mixing through the boundary layer through this period, allowing for efficient downward momentum transfer and gusty surface winds along the coast. NBM holds a high chance (60%-80%) for maximum wind gust of 35 mph or higher Monday. There is a moderate to high chance (40%-60%) for gusts to exceed 40 mph over some of the exposed coastal headlands and over coastal Del Norte. Winds will ease some Tuesday but will remain breezy through Tuesday afternoon. JJW

AVIATION

VFR conditions are mainly in place around the area today now the clouds have burned off in the valleys. The coast is expected to see breezy winds with gusts to 15 to 25 kt through this evening. A shortwave moving by to the north is shifting the wind flow aloft to more northwest this evening and tonight. At some point this may allow stratus to return along the coast. The HREF is showing around 60 percent chance of IFR conditions at KACV by 10Z. Probabilities are much lower at KCEC, but there is still the potential for IFR CIGS there. This is expected to make it's way up the river valleys of Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Mendocino may not see stratus tonight at the coast, although it is possible in the interior valleys. It generally looks like VFR conditions will return along the coast on Sunday, but there is a 30 to 40 percent chance that low clouds will linger or return quickly at KACV. MKK

MARINE

Northerly winds persist across the waters this afternoon. The ASCAT pass indicated 15 to 25 kt sustained winds. Coverage of gale force gusts looks like it may be confined to downwind of Cape Mendocino. The wind driven waves at the buoys are around 7 to 9 feet at 6 to 8 seconds. The northwest swell continues to be around 2 to 3 feet at 11 seconds.

Tonight and Sunday there isn't expected to be much change in the wind and wave environment. A new swell is expected to build into the waters, but this isn't expected to change things much. Initially it is expected to be around 14 seconds at 4 feet and may peak around 5 to 6 feet at 13 seconds early Sunday.

Winds and wind driven waves are expected to increase through the day on Monday bringing the potential for gales back to most of the waters. Confidence was not high enough to issue a gale watch for the northern and inner waters and some locations may only briefly reach gales. Monday night these are expected to diminish in the northern waters with gales limited to areas south of Cape Mendocino by Tuesday afternoon. Winds are expected to gradually diminish Wednesday and Thursday as a shortwaves moves by the area.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ450-455- 470.

Gale Warning until 5 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ475.