textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Unseasonably hot temperatures with near record highs continue to generate Moderate HeatRisk across the interior through mid next week.

* Shallow, diurnal marine layer persisting along the coast through the weekend.

* Dry conditions expected through this coming work week.

SYNOPSIS

An upper level ridge over the four corners and into our area this weekend will create unseasonably hot and dry conditions for the interior and continued overcast skies along the North Coast. The weather pattern is likely to remain through most of the coming week.

DISCUSSION

A consistent synoptic pattern remains overhead forcing relatively rinse and repeat weather for most of NW California. Interior areas remain very hot, with close to record breaking temperatures and dry. Thermal belts remain at midslope keeping areas above warm overnight. Light terrain-driven winds are expected due to a stable atmosphere and minimal forcing. Coastal areas of Del Norte and N. Humboldt can expected continued overcast conditions with areas of dense fog and light drizzle. The Mendocino coast is likely to remain more clear with cooler temperatures in the mid 60s or so.

This pattern is expected to continue into most of the coming week as the upper level ridge stays firmly in place. The only sign of relief seems to be next weekend. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles show an upper level trough dipping into the area sometime late Saturday into Monday morning. There is a even a chance of rain returning to the area during this time, yet any details are not clear at this moment. While it is important to remember this is the far extended forecast, the possibility remains. DS

AVIATION...06Z UPDATE

LIFR conditions will continue for ACV and CEC through dawn. A fog bank with variable visibilities continues to ebb and flow over the terminals. Periods of dense fog with 1/4SM FG will oscillate in between short periods of visibilities up to 1 1/2SM through the evening before dense fog sets in around 06Z. Winds will remain light (<10kt) both along the coast and inland. Coastal winds will remain light and southerly as a coastal eddy has set up. Inland areas can expect VFR through the TAF period. DS

MARINE

A consistent land-sea temperature difference setting up each afternoon will continue to force northerly winds through the outer waters as a consistent surface pressure gradient remains. moderate to fresh breezes in the outer waters will force steep, short period waves to continue through the morning. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer waters, possibly easing below criteria by the morning before likely returning early week as winds increase again. Beyond short period seas, a very minor southwest swell is adding some complexity to the sea state. Northerlies are expected to continue through the coming work week. DS

FIRE WEATHER

The weather pattern continues with unseasonably hot and dry conditions increasing fire danger. Interior valley highs in the upper 90s and daytime RH around 15 percent will continue into early next week. Mid and upper elevation RH recovery will become increasingly poor with strengthening thermal belts above midslope and light offshore winds. Daytime winds remain weak and terrain driven with morning upslope flow turning to upvalley gusts in the afternoon. Marine influence will be very shallow along the coast, below 500ft. Conditions will slowly ease mid next week though there remains essentially 0% chance of wetting rain within the forecast period. Some slight relief is possible next weekend with some global models starting to hint at some sort of weak cold front passing through next Sunday.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ112-113- 118>120.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470- 475.