textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Clouds are expected to return tonight with coastal drizzle possible Saturday morning. Saturday is expected to be mainly dry with gradual clearing skies although temperatures remain slightly below seasonal normals. A warming and drying trended is expected to start Sunday and increase into next week.

DISCUSSION

The upper level low that was impacting the area has moved off to the east and a brief period of high pressure is building in. A few showers or even a thunderstorm over the mountains are still possible this afternoon. There were quite a few clouds this morning and much of the area is seeing them linger into the afternoon. Tonight a weak shortwave shortwave moves by to the north of the area bringing some additional clouds and possibly some drizzle to the coastal areas. By Saturday afternoon this is expected to be past the area and will likely keep any showers or thunderstorms to the east of the area. As high pressure builds into the area Saturday afternoon gusty north winds are expected at the coast. Winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph are possible. Saturday night into Sunday morning the winds are the coast and in the valleys will diminish, but a few thousand feet above ground the northeast winds are expected to remain elevated or increase to 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Sunday afternoon breezy northwest winds are expected along the coast again. Inland temperatures are expected to warm into the 80s and the marine influence is expected to be fairly limited. Offshore flow is expected again Sunday night, but may be weaker than Saturday night. Inland highs are expected to continue to warm and the upper 80s to low 90s are expected. The marine influence is expected to be fairly shallow and remain limited to the more immediate coastal areas.

Monday afternoon or overnight it appears that the upper level ridge moves past the area. This looks like it will allow the marine layer to return bringing fog and low clouds back to the coast. This will keep the immediate coast and near coastal areas cooler and more moist on Tuesday. Tuesday eastern Trinity and eastern Lake counties will see one more day of warming with highs around 90. Wednesday and Thursday the upper level trough slowly pushes closer to the area. This will bring a more concerted marine push as well as some cooler air aloft will lower temperatures across the area. This trough could bring a few light showers over the weekend, but confidence is low on this. Only two of the four ensemble clusters bring some light rain on Saturday. MKK

AVIATION

Satellite imagery depicts low clouds already clear out over KCEC, while low clouds persist around the HUmboldt Bay and vicinity. This is promoting prevailing LIFR with low ceilings and visibility in mist. Otherwise, conditions are still expected to continue improving across the coastal terminals this afternoon. Short-term guidances suggest low clouds redeveloping around the Humboldt Bay and vicinity this evening and tonight. This will bring back IFR to LIFR conditions at KACV later this evening. Nearshore gentle southerly breezes may push northward toward KCEC late tonight into Saturday, promoting IFR/LIFR conditions. Surface winds from NW at 10-15 kts with higher gusts for the coastal terminals, while WNW winds at around 10 kts, with occasional higher gusts at KUKI.

For UKI, mainly VFR conditions with cumulus clouds in the vicinity higher terrain. Winds from N at around 10 kts, with occasional higher gusts, becoming very light and variable after 30/03Z. With calm winds, low clouds and vicinity fog are expected to develop. NBM probability show there is a 10-20 for low clouds lower than 3000 feet for UKI this evening and into Saturday, while a nonzero (<5%) for low clouds lower than 1000 feet.

Saturday, breezy conditions with clear skies are expected for all terminals. /ZVS

MARINE

Moderate to strong winds are already observed across the waters this afternoon, with the strongest winds across the outer waters. Winds will be steadily strengthening through this weekend, with gale-force gusts developing over the outer waters. Gale Warning is now in effect for zones 470 and 475 from Saturday/Saturday night through Sunday night. Localize gale-force gust winds are likely around Pt St George and downwind of Cape Mendocino as well. For the inner waters, advisory conditions are likely with mostly moderate to strong breezes expected for much (>50%) of the area. The existing northwest swell will decay out of the waters late tonight, allowing for short period seas to dominate the sea state. Steep to very steep, hazardous short period seas will likely builds in response of the increasing winds to around 9-15 feet this weekend. Winds will weaken slightly but most likely remain moderate early next week. /ZVS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Saturday to 8 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning from 8 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475.

Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.