textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Chances for light rainfall/coastal drizzle will continue through the morning/early afternoon over Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. More significant warming will begin Sunday and continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

A weak front continues to clip Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties this morning. The boundary will continue to increase cloud cover over Northwest California and bring light rain to Del Norte County and light rain/drizzle to northern Humboldt County.

Moderate to heavy drizzle/light rain will continue into late morning/early afternoon today. Currently, looking at NBM 24 hour probabilities of over 0.1 inches accumulation (11pm Friday 3/13 to 11pm Saturday 3/14): Del Norte County has about a 90 to 95 percent chance; northern Humboldt County has about a 65 to 85 percent chance with higher chances along the coast from about Cape Mendocino and north. More recent NBM runs even have about a 40 to 60 percent chance for 0.5 inches or more for Del Norte County in 24 hours over the same time period (11pm Friday 3/13 to 11pm Saturday 3/14).

Generally, a dominant ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend and into next week. There is high confidence the ridge will begin to greatly amplify by Sunday. Near record high temperatures will be possible with some of the warmest valleys in southern Mendocino and southern Lake counties possibly approaching 90 degrees by early next week. As of now, the warmest days will most likely be Monday and Tuesday. These temperatures will bring some Minor level HeatRisk, with perhaps very localized Moderate levels for far southern Lake County. Most interior valleys could see temperatures in the 80s, while coastal areas could see high temperatures in the mid/high 60s to low 70s through that period.

AVIATION

An approaching front is driving the weather this morning. This brought stratus to the coastal areas and well up the river valleys. The front is approaching and may briefly lift these clouds up to MVFR conditions. The front is expected to bring rain to Del Norte county, but it will rapidly taper off farther south. KACV will likely see some drizzle or light rain and this may briefly bring CIGS and VIS down. Areas farther inland, including UKI, are expected to remain clear. The front is expected to push south of CEC by around 17Z and past ACV by around 22Z according to the HREF. This looks in line with other models. Tonight clearing skies are generally expected as weak offshore flow develops and dry air moves in. MKK

MARINE

Winds remain close to what they have been the last several days. North of Cape Mendocino the winds are fairly light and there may be some local areas of west to southwest winds. Northerly winds remain breezy south of Cape Mendocino. Saturday a final weak frontal boundary moves by the area and high pressure starts to build into the again. Northerly winds are expected to rapidly increase behind the front first in the northern waters and then in the southern waters. The models have slowed this slightly and it looks like the winds will pick up by mid to late morning in the northern waters and then spread in the afternoon to the southern waters. A few gale force gusts are possible downwind of Cape Mendocino and Point St George, but other winds are expected to remain in the 20 to 25 kt range. In addition to the wind driven waves, there are two swells. One from the northwest around 5 to 6 feet at 11 seconds and one from the south around 2 to 3 feet at 17 seconds. These are generally expected to continue into early next week.

Monday winds are expected to diminish north of Cape Mendocino once again to around 5 to 15 kt, but remain around 15 to 20 south of the Cape. Tuesday and Wednesday winds are expected to gradually diminish across the area. At this point it looks like Wednesday will have the lightest winds of the week, although Thursday now looks very similar. MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.