textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

High pressure building into the area this weekend is expected to bring breezy winds, mainly clear skies and warming inland temperatures. Most areas areas are expected to see temperatures peak on Monday with the coastal and near coastal areas seeing a return of the marine influence Tuesday. Gradual cooling is expected through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

A series of weak weather systems moving through the zonal flow brought some lingering clouds this morning and continued below normal temperatures for the afternoon. Tonight and Sunday high pressure starts to build into the area. Breezy northwest winds are expected along the coast this evening. This will bring some offshore flow Sunday morning. It looks like this will be strong enough to keep the coastal clouds away, but it is possible a few will linger, most likely in the Eel River Valley. Sunday afternoon inland high temperatures are expected to be nearly 10 degrees above Saturday to around the mid 80s in the warmer valleys. Skies are expected to be mostly clear at the coast, however it isn't expected to warm up much with 10 to 20 mph northerly winds. Sunday night into Monday the offshore flow continues, especially in the north. This should keep the coast mostly clear. Additional warming is expected Monday with highs warming into the upper 80s to low 90s.

Monday night into Tuesday morning the models are starting to indicate a return of the coastal low clouds. This is due to a shortwave approaching the Pacific Northwest. It is possible these clouds will hold off until Tuesday evening, but for now the winds look to be much lighter Monday night allowing stratus to form. Tuesday the marine clouds will likely clear out in the afternoon, but the marine air is still expected to make it into the western half or two thirds of Mendocino, Humboldt and Del Norte counties cooling temperature by several degrees. Farther inland temperatures may continue warming be a few degrees.

Late in the week the ensembles are in general agreement that an upper level trough will approach the area. The clusters show some discrepancies on the strength and timing. The fastest and deepest cluster brings some light rain to the area on Saturday while the rest of them keep it farther to the north. The NBM shows a 10 to 30 percent chance of a tenth of an inch in northern Humboldt and Del Norte counties on the next weekend. MKK

AVIATION

An aggressive erosion of stratus and cloud cover has the coastal terminals in VFR. Gusty northerlies have picked up as of 21z, helping scatter and clear out the previous overcast conditions. Although HREF does have low level cloud cover, likely ground fog with some stratus returning to Humboldt Bay and south up the Eel river delta, there is low probability for cloud coverage returning in heavy doses until late Monday night or early Tuesday morning for KCEC and KACV. Ceilings below 500ft overnight into Sunday are around 35% probability. Stout northerlies lasting through the evening tonight, easing off by 06z and veering southerly until dawn Sunday. Prevailing VFR conditions expected at KUKI with northerlies under 10kts easing to variable and light winds by 05-06z. /EYS

MARINE

Northerly winds are building in the outer waters, validating Gale Warnings issued from the previous shift. Wind waves and swell out of the NW could bring significant wave heights up tonight in excess of 10 ft, lasting through Sunday with the WNW swell around 15 seconds decaying slightly. Gale warnings in the outer waters through Sunday evening as the gradient of upstream ridge steepens. Strong winds will push closer to shore each afternoon and evening. /EYS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450-455.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ475.

Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.