textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Dry weather is expected this afternoon through Thursday. Rain chances return Friday into the weekend.

* Frost and near-freezing temperatures possible for the interior valleys and possibly near the coast tonight.

* Minor coastal flooding expected through Thursday at high tide, mainly around Humboldt Bay.

SYNOPSIS

Cool and dry weather is expected through Friday with additional chances for light rain late Friday and over the weekend. High tides this week are likely to cause areas of coastal flooding for areas around Humboldt Bay.

DISCUSSION

A weak cold front moved through this morning bringing light rain showers to Humboldt, and Del Norte Counties. Rain shower chances diminish this afternoon and evening as this moves out of the area. Much cooler and drier air moves in behind this front. Many valleys saw clouds and/or fog this morning and this may occur again tonight. Areas that do see clearing will see temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s, if not colder. Areas close to the coast could see mid to high 30s. Areas of frost will be possible at these temperatures, with the highest confidence in interior Mendocino and northern Lake Counties. Cold nights continue for the coming days with chances for frost and near-to-below freezing temperatures possible for the interior valleys, and even close to the coast. High temperatures also remain chilly in the 50s and low 60s.

The troughing pattern remains in place for the remainder of the week, but generally remains dry through Friday. The only exception to this would be in Del Norte County on Friday, where there is roughly a 20% of light rain that currently may only amount to a few hundredths with the bulk of precipitation to the north.

This low off the coast of Oregon moves southward this weekend, though there is some uncertainty on just how much moisture will arrive and how far south the low will drop. There is a widespread near 50% chance of any measurable rain on Saturday for all of NW California. The chance for wetting rain (over 0.1") is around 20- 30%. There is still a low chance (15%) of over a half inch of precipitation. This system is a cold system, and snow levels may drop to around 3000 to 4000 ft. Moisture is limited, but a dusting of snow in the higher terrain of Trinity County may be possible.

While over a week out at this point, long range ensemble members show a decently confident signal in a shift towards a more significant wetter pattern mid to late next week. CPC is highlighting NW California as having a moderate risk of heavy precipitation between 11/6 and 11/8 and a slight risk continuing through 11/10. Exact timing and rain amounts will become clearer over the coming days. Stay tuned! /JB

AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)

Rain showers have generally subsided and skies have started to scatter or clear. VFR conditions are likely at all terminals through the night as troughing remains in place, keeping the marine inversion weakened. Light offshore flow will also prevent widespread stratus. Patchy ground fog, especially in the interior inland valleys, is possible overnight through Wednesday morning. /JB

MARINE

Throughout most of the marine zones, northwesterly winds will continue to increase throughout the rest of today with the winds turning more northerly by late tonight. Northerly winds are forecast to increase more for the southern marine zones this afternoon and into the evening bringing advisory level conditions. Localized near-gale force gusts are possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Steep seas will also develop in response. Various mid to long period swells are also expected to build in throughout the week. /JLW

COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels this morning reached 9.26 ft above MLLW at the North Spit. This brought some minor flooding to low lying areas of King Salmon and the Arcata bottoms. This was again with an anomaly of 1.2 to 1.3 feet above astronomical tides. The surge model shows a similar anomaly on Wednesday, despite winds turning more northerly. So with an astronomical high tide of 8.06 feet on Wednesday, expect water levels between 9.1 and 9.3 with similar impacts to today's flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been reissued for Wednesday afternoon for Humboldt Bay.

Arena Cove is also expected to see water level reach the highest astronomical tide levels. Waves are only expected to be around 6 to 7 feet at 11 seconds likely limiting the impacts for the Mendocino coast at this point, yet it will continue to be monitored for any changes.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ103.

Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ103.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ105- 106-113-118.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ110- 111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ415.

Coastal Flood Advisory from noon to 3 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ415.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475.