textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Gusty north winds during the afternoon will be the highlight of the forecast through the weekend with otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Winds will weaken with warmer conditions early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

-Strong north winds will build every afternoon. The strongest winds along shore and over high peaks in the interior. Peak gusts Friday near 30 kts and peak Gusts Saturday and Sunday near 40 kts.

-Generally clear skies and dry conditions even along shore through early next week.

-Slightly cooler conditions into the weekend warming through next week.

LONG TERM

High pressure will begin to push inland Sunday and into early next week. The strongest North winds will shift towards the Sacramento Valley in response While winds will remain breezy near shore on Sunday, the strongest winds will shift to Lake COunty with gusts over 40 mph at high elevations and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, north winds Sunday will pull more air from the interior, promoting very dry conditions, especially far from the coast.

Winds will begin to weaken MOnday through mid next week as high pressure settles further onshore. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by mid week. Any HeatRisk currently appears minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus. There remains essentially no chance of rain or thunderstorms through next week. /JHW

AVIATION

Mainly VFR conditions across all TAF aerodromes. Breezy surface NW winds around 10-20 kts for the coastal terminals, with occassionl stronger gusts this afetrnoon and early evening.

Interior winds will continue to increase this afternoon, with breezy NNW winds in UKI between 14/22Z and 15/05Z. Winds are expected to ease this evening; however, some breezy conditions may perssist in KCEC overnight.

Short-term model guidances suggest low clouds redeveloping again around Humboldt Bay and vicinity later this evening. Expect MVFR ceilings impacting KACV between 15/10Z and 15/16Z, with low clouds eroding and mixing out after sunrise as NW winds increase and aid in VFR conditions with clear skies. /ZVS

MARINE

Northerly winds continue to strengthen through Friday across the coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino. Strong to near-gale sustained winds for the southern waters, while moderate to strong breezes for the northern waters. Winds will diminish to moderate breezes north of Cape Mendocino tonight as a progressive and dry cold front moves trough. This will followed by strengthening north winds in the wake of the front across all waters. Gusts up to around 40 kts are likely for south of Cape Mendocino on Friday with the pressure gradient tightening near coast. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the southern waters, but now through late Sunday night. While Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern waters through Saturday morning.

By Saturday, northerly winds accelerate across all waters with near- gale to gale force gusts across all coastal waters and perssist through the weekend. There is a moderate to high confidence (60-90%) chances of gale force gusts across the norther waters Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. A Gale Watch in in effect for zones 450 and 470 from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night.

Winds are expected to remain elevated early next week due to strong pressure gradient. Large, steep wind-driven seas will spread over all zones through the weekend and early next week./ZVS

FIRE WEATHER

Building north winds each afternoon into the weekend will increase fire weather concerns over the coming days. Winds will be strongest near shore but also along interior ridges and well aligned valleys. The strongest winds will approach gusts near 40 mph by Saturday afternoon. The strongest gusts will focus closer to shore on Friday and Saturday. Winds through Saturday will generally pull in more moist marine air. This will help keep temperatures subdued with only moderate minimum RH around 30 percent. That said winds will also slightly tamp down overnight RH recovery closer to 80 percent at low elevations and 50 percent higher up through Saturday.

High pressure will shift more onshore by Sunday. Strong afternoon winds will continue, but the focus of stronger winds will shift closer to the rim of the Sacramento Valley, especially in Lake County. Winds will pull in drier air by Sunday, supporting very dry afternoon conditions in eastern Mendocino, Trinity, and Lake Counties with minimum RH near 15 percent. Overnight RH recovery will continue to worsen with upper elevation recoveries very poor by Monday morning. Winds will begin to weaken early next week but very dry conditions will remain with increasing day time temperatures.

All that said, fuels generally retain a spring character. Although ERC values are forecast to jump up near record values for May, grasses remain mostly green for all locations but some of the hottest valleys in Lake and Mendocino Counties. Heavier fuels are retaining moderate moisture. Despite critical weather variables, fuels are very unlikely to support extreme fire at this time, hence a Red Flag Warning is not currently expected for these conditions in Lake, Trinity, or Mendocino Counties. This event, however, will likely push fuel towards a drier and more conducive state for fire in the coming weeks. /JHW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470.

Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ450-470.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.