textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Warmer and drier interior temperatures into the weekend with highs in the 90s by Sunday.

* A shallow but strong marine layer forming close to shore with persistent marine clouds.

SYNOPSIS

A blanket of stratus will encroach on the coast overnight into Friday signaling cool, moist conditions will prevail. Warmer and drier conditions will rebuild this weekend with shallow but persistent marine air along shore.

DISCUSSION

A high pressure ridge will gradually rebuild Friday and into the weekend. This pattern will allow for interior temperatures to dry back out and warm back into the 90s. Moderate north winds will return near shore, helping form a shallow but persistent marine layer especially north of Cape Mendocino. High pressure will most likely persist through next week. Most models show weak to moderate high pressure, but about 20% of ensemble members show unusually strong high pressure around next Tuesday that could push interior highs closer to 100. There is near 0% chance of wetting rain for the next 10 days. /JHW

AVIATION

High pressure reforming along shore has helped reinforce a much more expansive and resilient marine layer. This has lead to mostly IFR ceilings gradually lifting to MVFR for both KACV and KCEC. There is a 50% chance of LIFR ceilings overnight which increases closer to dusk at near 70% probability for the coastal terminals. Mos guidance and GFS are signaling lower visibility during this time frame as well with NBM giving 60-65% probability of less than 1/2mile during the early morning hours overnight. Area profilers are also showing a the marine layer being squished by the incoming ridge and soundings also show low level inversions after 11am Friday so expect reduced flight categories during the daytime hours. KUKI could get advected stratus if the layer is deep enough during the early morning hours. As of 6z, stratus has halted just east of Comptche but could make its way into the Ukiah valley. /EYS

MARINE

Moderate southerly winds have persisted close to shore through the day with some north winds in the far outer waters. Short period seas have now generally dropped below 6 feet. Moderate to strong northerly winds will gradually return to the southern waters by Friday and gradually spread north through the weekend, though winds will most likely remain much calmer closer to shore. Short period wind waves will dominate the marine environment with only a very minor southwest mid period swell up to 2 feet to speak of. /JHW

FIRE WEATHER

The thunderstorm risk has ended. New starts will continue to be slow to spread thanks to otherwise cool and moist conditions. A building ridge will bring much drier and hotter conditions through the weekend, but winds will remain gentle and terrain driven. /JHW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475.