textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Showers continue to significantly diminish early this morning. Dry conditions with diurnal fog conditions will dominate today through Friday. Wet and unsettled weather could occur this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

A strong atmospheric river storm has moved out of Northwest California. Showers will linger early this morning and continually diminish into mid/late morning. Small streams and creeks across the region have mostly peaked as most rain has ceased. However, some main stem rivers will continue to swell with runoff into late this morning to potentially early this afternoon.

River Flood Warnings will remain in effect for the Eel River, Navarro River, and the Russian River at Hopland. Also, a Flood Warning will remain in effect for the Garcia River.

The Eel River is expected to peak at 23.34 ft (just over Moderate Flood which is at 22 ft) at 7am this morning and drop below flood stage by late this afternoon. River levels over 22 ft will result in the western half of the Eel Delta being completely flooded, including: areas northwest of Loleta and Cannibal Island Road. The Navarro River is expected to peak at 26.48 ft (just over Minor Flood which is at 23 ft) very early this morning and drop below flood stage by mid morning. River levels over 23 ft result in the flooding of Highway 128 approximately 5 miles east of Highway 1. As of very early this morning, Highway 128 remains completely closed due to flooding.

The Russian River at Hopland is expected to peak at 18.58 ft (over Minor Flood which is at 15 ft) very early this morning and drop below flood stage by late this morning/early afternoon. River levels over 18 feet will cause flooding of Highway 222 near Ukiah with secondary roads in low-lying areas potentially flooding in Hopland, Ukiah, and Talmage.

At the Garcia River, near Point Arena, flooding impacts may be felt between 10 to 12 ft. The Garcia River peaked at 14.22 ft late yesterday evening. A Flood Warning is in effect for the Garcia River until late this morning when levels are forecast to drop below 10 ft.

Conditions will continue to settle down today. Considerable low level moisture will linger in the wake of the front and with warm air aloft, expect considerable low cloud cover and fog in the interior valleys and along the coast. Otherwise, we are looking dry until Friday when the stalled out upper low over the central Pacific edges closer to the coast. Timing and location of trough passage remains uncertain. Moisture transport under 250kg/m/s is forecast while PWATS increase. It's not looking like any major precip at this time. There is a subtle hint for some convection or thunder as a mid level speed max noses toward the North Coast on Saturday in advance of the 500mb cold core. Surface temperatures should remain mild and above normal as we head into the last week of February and the first few days of March. /JLW&ZVS&DB

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

Stratiform rain has turned showery across the area. Lingering showers will continue overnight with conditions fluctuating between MVFR and LIFR. Ground fog from ample moisture may bring more consistent LIFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities early this morning, however confidence is low. After sunrise, ceilings are likely to lift and scatter and bring VFR conditions to all terminals. There is a low (15% chance) of MVFR ceilings all day at ACV, however. The coastal terminals could see northerly breezes of up to 15 kts in the afternoon, but otherwise winds are likely to remain light. JB

MARINE

Winds have eased significantly and steep seas have started to subside. Along with decaying wind waves, a mid period southwest swell has built in, keeping combined seas above 7 ft. There will be a brief surge of northerly winds Wednesday through Thursday morning, mainly over the outer waters beyond 10 nm and around Cape Mendocino. Speeds will remain below 20 kts with short period seas of 4 to 6 ft through Thursday morning. Northerly winds may be slightly stronger Friday afternoon in the northern waters. An area of low pressure approaches Sunday with likely little impacts unless it takes a more northern track. The pressure gradient will increase behind it early next week with strengthening northerlies. There is currently a 50% chance for some gale strength gusts Monday with the northerlies. JJW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.