textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather along with near-normal temperatures are expected through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected today through the weekend, with low relative humidities in the interior bringing elevated fire weather conditions. Light rain is possible Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and dry weather expected through the weekend.

- Widespread breezy to gusty winds each afternoon and evening Friday and through the weekend, with low RH values promoting locally elevated fire conditions across the interior.

- Chance for light rain Monday.

DISCUSSION

High pressure weakens today as a trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. A tight pressure gradient with zonal flow will bring gusty west-northwest winds to the interior. This may support temperatures a few degrees cooler than Thursday, but also bring elevated fire weather conditions to Lake County, eastern Mendocino, and eastern Trinity Counties, as daytime relative humidities fall into 20s. See the fire weather section for more details. Coastal areas could see peak gusts of 20 to 25 mph, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph on exposed ridges and coastal headlands. Coastal Mendocino, especially could see gusts as high as 40 mph. Interior areas could see gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, though some wind prone areas (like Lake County) could see localized areas of gusts up to 35 mph.

Saturday, high temperatures are expected to fall 5 to 10 degrees with many interior areas dipping into the 70s or low 80s, with near to slightly below normal temperatures across the area. Breezy afternoon west-northwest winds are likely to continue and could even be stronger than Friday's winds. Generally, peak gusts of 25 to 35 mph are likely across the area, with locally higher amounts on coastal headlands and exposed ridges. Sunday, high temperatures rebound slightly across the interior as high pressure temporarily rebuilds. Winds ease slightly, but still could be breezy along the Mendocino Coast and wind prone areas in the afternoon.

Confidence is increasing on a pattern change early next week, and models have generally been trending wetter. NBM is showing around a 60-70% chance for over a tenth of an inch of rain for much of Humboldt and Del Norte. Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake Counties have around a 30-50% chance for a tenth of an inch. NBM is showing a low- end chance (30%) for an inch of rain in Del Norte. There is a lot of model spread, and the chance for no measurable precipitation is around 50-60% in southern Lake and Mendocino. Meanwhile, there is around a 25% chance for no measurable rain in coastal Humboldt and Del Norte. This will become clearer over the coming days. Regardless, generally mild conditions are forecast through late next week with near to slightly below normal high temperatures. JB

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

Stratus has started to form in Humboldt County late this evening. IFR to MVFR stratus impacts are likely overnight for coastal Humboldt, including ACV. South winds offshore Humboldt may bring stratus northward to CEC, though confidence is not high as north winds remain high offshore. Lighter winds are likely this afternoon compared to Thursday, though gusts up to 20 to 25 kts are still possible. At least partial clearing is expected by the afternoon, bringing VFR conditions across the area. JB

MARINE

Near-gale to gale force gusts continue south of Cape Mendocino early this morning. Steep wind waves of 12 ft have been observed here and are expected to continue today. North of Cape Mendocino, winds are expected to gradually decrease today as a trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Still gusts of 15 to 20 kts are possible in the outer waters this afternoon. Winds increase again Saturday behind this front, with near-gale to gale force gusts likely to continue in the lee of Cape Mendocino through the weekend. Moderate breezes are likely in the northern outer waters Saturday. Winds begin to decrease again in the northern waters Sunday as another trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. This trough is likely to move farther south, finally allowing for a break in the north winds. Seas will gradually subside and could be below 6 ft across all waters by Monday afternoon. Conditions remain mild through Tuesday, but moderate to strong north winds are likely to return Tuesday night into Wednesday. JB

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty west-northwest winds are expected in interior areas each afternoon through Sunday. These winds combined with low afternoon relative humidities will promote elevated fire weather conditions. While the strongest winds are expected in the ridges where afternoon gusts could peak over 30 mph, lower elevations could see gusts of 20 to 30 mph each afternoon. In the eastern portions of the area (Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties), afternoon relative humidities are expected to drop into the low to mid 20s Friday afternoon. Locally higher winds in Lake County, where fine fuels are relatively dry, is expected to bring locally critical fire weather conditions. Saturday, winds are expected to remain similarly breezy, though temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler and RHs slightly higher. Sunday, winds are expected to be lighter, but still breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. RHs are likely to be lower with many interior areas seeing RHs in the teens. A trough Monday may bring wetting rain to the area, with the highest chances in Del Norte, Humboldt, and Trinity Counties. JB

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ455-475.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470.