textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Smokey conditions continue from the MP18 Fire, focused in the Trinity River Valley and Trinity County.

* Near to below normal temperatures are likely through next week.

SYNOPSIS

Generally mild weather is expected for the next week. A troughing pattern has set up over the region. Inland areas can expect cooler than normal temperatures, while the coast continues to have overcast conditions and only brief afternoon clearing.

DISCUSSION

Troughing continues over the area through the weekend and into early next week. This has supported a much deeper marine layer with stratus reaching far inland, along with moderated interior temperatures. Near to below normal temperatures are expected to continue through much of the week as the troughing continues. High pressure may briefly rebuild early to mid week, but models are not showing a significant warm up and interior temperatures are likely to remain near normal (with most valleys in the 90s). Coastal areas are seeing stratus persist through the afternoon,and this is likely to continue so long as afternoon winds remain light. Even then, only partial afternoon clearing is likely. All said, generally mild, seasonable weather is expected for the next week.

AVIATION

A shortwave trough will impact the region through Saturday morning causing the marine layer to deepened with light winds along the coast. MVFR to IFR ceilings at the coastal terminals will transition to IFR to LIFR through early this morning. Light coastal drizzle would further lower VIS and bring chances for fog. Ceilings will lift in the afternoon, but the deep marine layer will limit clearing along the coast. Inland, expect gusty afternoon winds and increased low level cloud coverage, especially within coastal river valleys. The Russian River Valley is expected to have OVC ceilings at UKI with late morning clearing in the 17-18Z period.

MARINE

Winds and seas continue to remain mild over the region, especially in the nearshore waters. A long-period southerly swell of ~3ft has built into the region and will mix with northerly shorter period waves. However, the overall sea state should remain mixed with these two wave groups through the start of next week. Light to moderately breezy (~20kt) winds are expected through the extended forecast as of right now with locally stronger northerly winds in the lee of Cape Mendocino.

FIRE WEATHER

A troughing pattern has set up over the region. This will result in lower daytime temperatures, increased RH values, and breezier winds due to increased mixing. A deeper marine layer will reach further up river valleys through the night as well, possibly impacting any Rx burning operations.

Thunderstorm activity has largely remained outside of the area and this pattern is likely to continue as both moisture and instability remain limited. Thunderstorm chances remain at 5% or less through late next week. This will be watched as this troughing pattern continues as any increase in moisture and instability could potentially support thunderstorms.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.