textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

A warming trend begins Sunday lasting through the week. Expect unseasonable, very warm temperatures across all of NW California with a chance of record breaking heat for inland areas of Mendocino County today and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Significant warming begins Sunday and continues into next week. Residual stratus remains over the Eel river basin as well as coastal areas from Humboldt Bay up through the Klamath river mouth. Expect significant clearing out over the CWA by Sunday afternoon. Scattered groups over coastal Humboldt and Del Norte are likely to return by Sunday early evening.

A dominant ridge of high pressure will build over southwestern CONUS this weekend and is expected to linger with its over the CA/NV/AZ tri-state area through the week. There is increasingly high confidence this ridge will begin to greatly amplify today, increasing interior temperatures. Model data suggests this ridge will be close to 3 standard devisions above the climatological normal by the middle of this coming week, make its stronger than ~99.7% of the ridges that usually flow over western CONUS for this time of year.

Near record high temperatures will be possible with some of the warmest valleys in southern Mendocino and southern Lake counties. Thankfully, it is still mid-March so the maximum temperatures will only be approaching 90 degrees by early this coming week. As of now, the warmest days will most likely be Monday and Tuesday when the apex of ridge stretches over NW CA before stalling and building with its center to the southeast of the CWA by mid week. These temperatures will bring some Minor level HeatRisk, with perhaps very localized Moderate levels for far southern Lake County. Most interior valleys could see temperatures in the 80s, while coastal areas could see high temperatures in the mid/high 60s to low 70s through that period. The EPS and GEFS is showing some relief from this heat next week due to a potential short wave trof filling into the PacNW after this ridge moves eastward.

AVIATION

A front has moved through the area and there is some lingering stratus in the coastal areas. The offshore flow has cleared this out in some areas, but much of the Humboldt coast and valleys continue to see LIFR CIGS. It is still possible these will clear, but at this point it looks like the offshore flow is too weak for this. This afternoon VFR conditions are expected across the area. Winds will be breezy along the coast, but likely less than 10 kt in most areas. Clear skies are expected to continue through Sunday night. MKK

MARINE

Northerly winds peaked Saturday evening around 20 to 25 kt. These are expected to gradually diminish this morning to around 10 to 15 kt in the north and 15 to 20 kt south of Cape Mendocino. There may be a brief increase again across the area around peak heating in the afternoon. Wind driven waves are currently around 6 to 9 feet and expected to gradually diminish as well. There are also two small swells. One around 3 feet at 11 seconds out of the northwest and one around 2 feet at 15 seconds out of the south. Both of these are expected to persist through tonight.

Sunday night and Monday these winds are expected to persist around 10 to 20 kt with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino and especially just downwind of the Cape. Monday night and Tuesday the winds continue to diminish to around 5 to 15 kt with the strongest wind still just south of Cape Mendocino. Also on Tuesday a northwest swell is expected to build to around 4 t 6 feet at 14 seconds Tuesday night and then gradually diminish. The lighter winds are expected to continue Wednesday. Thursday and Friday a few of the models show a slight increase in the winds, but it is fairly minimal at this point. MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455-470.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.