textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather and above-seasonable temperatures are expected to continue with widespread Minor HeatRisk for the interior through Friday. Temperatures will cool gradually this weekend and into early next week, yet remain above normal.

DISCUSSION

A strong 500mb ridge and a surface high pressure continue to build into the region. Nighttime satellites show a stratus cloud bank off the shore slowly flowing towards the area into Tuesday as a shallow marine layer develops along the North Coast. Coastal stratus is expected to lift and scattered out throughout the day on Tuesday, allowing to another sunshine-filled day.

Quiet, dry weather and well above-seasonably temperatures will continue across Northwest California through the work week. All inland area expected to remain 15 to 30 degrees above normal. NBM probability for high temperatures exceeding 90F around Ukiah now shows a 55% chance on Tuesday, diminishing to 20-30% Wednesday and Thursday, before increasing again to 40% on Friday. Minor HeatRisk across the interior is expected through Friday. The heat will primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling or hydration.

Meanwhile, mild weather will prevail along the coast with highs mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s; however, Thursday will be the warmest day for the coastal areas, with high climbing into the 70s. Currently there is a 45-70% chance for most of the coastal areas exceeding 70 degrees on Wednesday, increasing to 70-95% on Thursday.

The anomalous 500 mb ridge is expected to gradually weaken and shift southward Friday and through the weekend, while an upper level trough develops over the Gulf of Alaska. Surface analysis suggests a cold front traversing the area this weekend. However, confidence remains high for a continuation in dry weather through the weekend into early next week. Gradual cooling is expected to begin on Friday, though temperatures remain above- normal through the weekend and into early next week. /ZVS

AVIATION

Very dry air over the area alongside weak winds have promoted generally widespread VFR conditions. There is potential for a very shallow and weak marine layer to form IFR fog along the coast early Tuesday morning, but chances are currently only around 40%. Regardless of any fog formation, VFR conditions will quickly return by mid Tuesday morning. Chances for fog will decreased Tuesday night and Wednesday as light wind gradually turns more offshore. /JHW

MARINE

As high pressure gradually pushes east, the pressure gradient over the area will continue to weaken. This will allow for gentle to mostly calm north winds Tuesday and through most of the week with only locally enhanced winds to around 15 kts in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Calmer winds will remain as long as high pressure covers the area. As high pressure finally breaks down, stronger winds will return this weekend, with gale conditions very likely (80% chance) in the outer waters by Sunday.

Calm winds will generally limit any meaningful short period seas through the week. That said a minor, long period southerly swell and modest mid period westerly swell will combine to create at least some seas up to 6 feet through mid week. Steeper short period seas will return this weekend with the wind. /JHW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ475.