textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain possible Saturday night in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. * Stronger storm systems with heavy rain possible starting late next week.

* Minor to near moderate coastal flooding is likely around Humboldt Bay from November 7th to 10th.

SYNOPSIS

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue today and early Saturday. Southerly winds are expected to increase Saturday afternoon with some slight rain expected in Del Nort county with some spreading south into Humboldt county overnight. Dry weather is expected to return Sunday. More light rain is possible in the north Monday through Wednesday. The potential for heavier rain increases late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue this afternoon after a chilly start to the morning. Another chilly night is expected tonight, although temperatures are expected to warmer than Friday morning.

Saturday morning high clouds start to move into the area as cold front approaches the area. This is expected to bring some rain to Del Norte county by the afternoon or evening. This is expected to spread south in the evening into northern Humboldt county. Farther south rainfall amounts are expected to diminish quickly. The southerly winds with this system look to be stronger than we have seen with previous systems. This may enhance some upslope areas such as the King Range and portions of south Fork Mountain. Overall rainfall amounts look to be less than an inch in Del Norte county and diminish to the south and east. Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties are generally expected to just see a mix of sun and clouds as well as a cooler temperatures with this system.

Rain is generally expected to come to an end on Sunday with the system dissipating as it moves inland. Cloudy skies are expected to linger in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. High temperatures are generally expected to remain in the 60s.

Monday through Wednesday it looks like the weather systems will mainly remain north of California, although some light rain may occasionally drift south into the area. This will likely bring a mix of sun and clouds to the area and temperatures will likely be in the 60s to low 70.

Late in the week the models are starting to show more confidence in the heavier rain dropping south into the area. The models have been showing rain moving south on day 8 or so for the past week or two and this is not unusual in the fall season. The trick is when it will actually move farther south and bring the rain. The increased probabilities are starting to show up at day 7. So it looks like northwest California might be getting closer to some more significant rain. Stay tuned. MKK

AVIATION

Along the coast some local areas of low clouds are forming, but then dissipating. Expect by sunrise there will some more persistent areas of low clouds. Some inland valleys are also expected to see fog, but it is not expected to make it into the Ukiah valley. Areas that do cloud up are expected to see clearing by midday. Friday evening and overnight the REFS model is showing increasing probabilities of stratus developing along the Humboldt coast and moving in overnight. MKK

MARINE

High pressure that brought the northerly winds and steep seas is weakening as a cold front slowly approaches the area. The northerly winds are expected to continue to diminish north of Cape Mendocino through the day and start to turn southerly. Another northwest swell is building into the waters this morning. This is expected to peak this afternoon around 11 to 13 feet at 17 seconds. This swell will slowly diminish on Saturday.

Saturday the southerly winds are expected to expand across more of the waters. These southerly winds are expected to increase Saturday afternoon and evening peaking around 20 to 25 kt north of Cape Mendocino with lighter south winds in the southern waters. Sunday winds are expected to turn northerly again, but remain less than 10 kts. Another large swell is expected to build into the waters on Sunday to around 14 to 16 feet at 15 seconds. If this forecast remains consistent this could produce breakers around 18 to 20 feet.

Monday and Tuesday southerly winds are expected to be light to moderate as weak weather systems move by to the north. Starting on Wednesday southerly winds are expected to increase and may remain elevated through the end of the week. MKK

COASTAL FLOODING

The tidal anomaly remains around 1.2 feet at the high tides. Astronomical tides are 7.4 to 7.5 feet at North Spit on the 7th through 10th of November. The current range of tidal anomalies would bring tides up to and over the advisory level of 8.8 ft, and minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay. Saturday night southerly winds are expected to increase this anomaly and 1.5 feet may be more likely for the high tide Sunday. This could push water levels to 9.0 feet or even slightly stronger depending on the strength and duration of southerly winds.

Areas outside of Humboldt Bay may also see an increased potential for coastal flooding with large surf expected. Currently breaking waves of 18 to 20 feet are possible around high tide. This will need to be watched if the waves remain forecasted to be this large.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Beach Hazards Statement through Friday evening for CAZ101- 103-104-109.

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Friday for CAZ110-114- 118-120.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455- 470-475.