textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold front most likely to cross the area Monday into Tuesday. 20-30% chance of wetting rain along the North Coast.

* Cooler temperatures with a slight chance of lingering showers through the week.

SYNOPSIS

Warming will wane for inland areas as moist and cooler conditions approach Northwest California. These conditions will build through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

The upper level ridge warming temperatures for the past week for NW CA is beginning to flatten. With this shift in the synoptic set up, expect cooler, more seasonable temperatures Today. An upper level trough currently situated over Alaska is expected to pass by the forecast area Sunday afternoon, causing further cooling inland for Monday. Rain chances are also highly variable due to the frontal system remaining off the coastline. While the chance for any rain (>0.01") is around 20-50% for all areas outside of Lake County, wetting rain (>0.10") remains limited to Del Norte and Humboldt coastline with only a 20-30% chance on Monday. This means that very light rain is more likely than any impactful rainfall from this system through Monday into Tuesday morning.

Through the coming work week, expect valley fog each morning as PWAT values increase to near or slightly above normal. Limited coverage of light rainshowers is possible through the week as well, especially for higher elevations. Relatively unsettled weather is likely to remain through the coming work week as this low pressure center remains over the western US into next weekend. DS / EYS

AVIATION

Coastal stratus has reformed along the North Coast affecting coastal terminals of Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Patchy dense fog is expected periodically into mid to late morning with IFR/LIFR conditions expected. Some clearing is anticipated tomorrow afternoon for coastal terminals with lower clouds and visibilities expected to move back in this evening. VFR conditions are forecast for inland terminals.

MARINE

Winds this morning out of the northwest, are expected to increase into the near shore and outer waters. These are expected to first increase in the southern waters in lee of Cape Mendocino and then expand north by the late afternoon. Northwesterlies are expected to be fairly shortlived and start to diminish on Sunday and especially Sunday night. Lighter winds are expected early next week which could be southerly. Otherwise, the waves will remain dominated by a northwest swell and a more southerly swell. The northwest swell is around 4-5 ft at 11-13 seconds while the south to southwest swell is around 2-3 feet at 14 seconds. Mid- week northerly winds are expected to increase again. MKK / EYS

FIRE WEATHER

Over the weekend, a fairly significant cooling trend will take effect as a low pressure system and its associate cold front impact NW CA. This will likely lead to a slightly more unstable atmosphere, cooler daytime temperatures and increased overnight recoveries. Wetting rain is not likely, around 20-30% for coastal areas of Humboldt and Del Norte counties, yet there exists a very slim chance of showers elsewhere. That said, rain accumulation will likely be below 0.10" and should have minimal operational impacts. Cool and moist weather is expected through the coming work week. DS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.