textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming trend continues through the end of the week as offshore winds increase and inland temperatures reach the high 80s to low 90s.

* A Red Flag Warning and Fire Weather Watch has been issued for FWZ 418 & 419 in eastern Lake County tomorrow due to Low RH (<20%) and strong winds with gusts of 35mph.

* This weekends cold front continues to evolve, yet timing of remains consistent for a Sunday afternoon/evening arrival.

SYNOPSIS

Clear skies and above normal temperatures are expected today. Areas of critical fire weather conditions are forecasted for Lake County late tonight into Thursday morning. A frontal system is probable late this weekend or early next week.

DISCUSSION

The week's warming trend remains strong as high pressure builds over the area. Inland temperatures will be warm today before increasing even more tomorrow and Friday. Offshore wind will enhance the warmth along the coast as well, keeping skies relatively clear. Offshore winds are also expected to blow into eastern Lake County Thursday and Friday, leading to areas of critical fire weather danger. The pressure gradient that is forcing the winds is expected to shift in the afternoon however, easing winds from 3pm onward both days.

THis weekend, an upper level trough is modeled to influence the PacNW from the North. Global models have begun to waiver on the location of the center of this frontal system. This storm does not seem to have the make up of a rain-maker so a change in location and trajectory of the low can dramatically impact the rainfall amounts in NW CA. The timing of this front remains to be expected on Sunday evening. DS

AVIATION...18Z UPDATE

Widespread VFR is expected through the day again. Northerlies will continue along the coast before turning to light southerlies this evening. Calming winds and some very shallow ground fog is possible early tomorrow just before dawn. Inland areas can expect terrain influenced winds peaking in the afternoon before widespread calming. DS

MARINE

Moderate sustained breezes are expected through the coastal waters today. Winds will continue to weaken into Thursday. Short period seas are moderately steep in the outer waters up to 6 feet, but a chaotic, mixed sea state persists when combined with ongoing mid period southwest and northwest swells. These swells are expected through the week. Stronger north winds return around Saturday. A large NW swell of 7-8 feet is forecast to arrive Sunday as well, increasing the potential for a complex and chaotic sea state. DS

FIRE WEATHER

The warming trend of this week continues to promote warm and dry conditions. ERC values are now extreme for many parts of the area increasing concern for fire starts. Offshore winds are expected to continue overnight through the week. Ridges will be the areas of primary concern with poor recoveries and the potential for stronger winds arriving over the terrain. The central valley of CA will experience strong winds which could possibly flow over terrain in eastern Lake County. A Red Flag Warning has been hoisted for FWZ 418 & 419 tomorrow from 4am-2pm due to low RH values and strong winds. A Fire Weather Watch has also been hoisted for Friday as the potential for repeated conditions remains. Areas elsewhere can expect light to moderate terrain-driven winds. This weekend, a cooling trend will take effect with a frontal passage arriving late this weekend. DS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Red Flag Warning from 4 AM to 2 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ418- 419.

Fire Weather Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for CAZ418-419.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.