textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Briefly warmer and drier conditions today and Monday.

* Breezy winds and more light rain possible Tuesday.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting late next week and into mid November

SYNOPSIS

Warmer and drier conditions briefly build today into Monday. Breezy winds and another round of light rain is likely Tuesday. More wet weather is possible late next week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

A cold front is currently crossing the area early this morning. Generally light rain has fallen with this storm, with a few localized areas, especially in the King Range, with heavier rain rates. Cloudy and rainy conditions is expected to keep low temperatures this morning from reaching as low as previous days, but still areas in the high 30s to low 40s are likely. Snow levels of around 5000 to 5500 feet may bring a dusting of snow to Highway 3 at Scott Mountain Pass before sunrise.

Drier air will quickly build in today with skies quickly clearing all across the area. High pressure briefly building into Monday will allow some interior highs to return near 70 for at least one afternoon. There is high confidence that a modest cutoff low and cold front will quickly cross the area around early Tuesday. Breezy south winds will ramp up ahead of the front with gusts of up to 20 mph. Higher elevations, especially in the King Range could see locally stronger winds up to 40 mph. Rainfall amounts are trending upwards south of Cape Mendocino, but still rainfall totals remain minor. There is around a 40% chance for over a half inch of rain along the Mendocino Coast, 20-30% chances for much of interior Mendocino, Lake County, and the King Range. Chances of wetting rain (over 0.1") are 60-80% outside of northern Humboldt and Del Norte Counties.

Behind this system, there is much greater forecast uncertainty beyond Tuesday. About half of ensemble members show weak high pressure through the end of the week with seasonably cool and mostly dry conditions. The other half show the potential for another weak cold frontal system late week, however this does not look particularly strong. Long range models suggest the next chance for heavier rainfall is around November 10th with a 50% chance of rainfall over 1.0 inch in that period. /JHW/JB

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

A front moving through the area overnight has brought light rain and VFR ceilings. Some areas of MVFR ceilings are possible early this morning within heavier showers. High cloud cover is expected to keep ceilings VFR, with some areas of patchy ground fog possible by early this morning. Any remaining clouds clear quickly by late morning. Offshore flow is likely to continue VFR conditions through the night Sunday night. /JB

MARINE

Post-frontal north winds have trended upwards in recent models and areas of 15 to 20 kts, especially in the southern waters, are possible by this afternoon. Isolated gusts above 25 kts are possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Localized areas of 5 to 6 foot short period seas are possible in the lee of the Cape this afternoon. Light winds return by Monday. The sea state will be primarily controlled by a series of swells. Most notably a mild 3 foot, mid period swell from the southwest through mid week. Of larger note, a long period swell will build Monday up to 7 feet at 18 seconds, bringing a risk of sneaker waves near shore.

A stronger cold front arrives Tuesday bringing strong southerlies of 20 to 30 kts ahead of the front Tuesday morning, quickly turning northward by the afternoon. Some models depict the northerlies being a similar strength, if not locally stronger, however this is highly dependent on the position of the low. /JB/JHW

BEACH HAZARDS

A very long period northwest swell arrives this afternoon and into Monday. This will bring an extreme threat for sneaker waves as winds remain light and other wave groups remain limited. This swell starts at around 2 ft at 21 secs and builds to around 6 ft at 17 secs by Monday morning. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Monday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None.