textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures warm through Monday with building high pressure and limited cloudcover. Breezy northerly winds expected Sunday before winds ease into next week. Marine clouds return Tuesday and a general cooling trend is expected through the week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure is building into the area this afternoon. This is bringing clear skies and a notable warmup. The northerly winds will be fairly strong again at the coast and this is expected to keep temperatures near 60 today. Tonight weak offshore flow is expected again. This may not be enough to keep skies clear and some coastal stratus could form again tonight. This is still expected to be fairly limited in coverage and should clear by midday. The near coastal valleys may see some patchy fog again tonight as well. Monday is expected to be the warmest day across much of the area. Once any coastal clouds clear the northerly winds will increase, but generally are expected to be lighter than on Sunday allowing highs to warm into the middle 60s at the immediate coast. This is the current forecast, however there is also another possible scenario. The lighter winds could allow clouds to linger and prevent the immediate coast from seeing much warming. Monday night into Tuesday the upper level ridge axis shifts slightly to the east. Confidence is higher that this will bring a return of marine clouds to the near coastal and coastal areas early in the morning. The question is how close to the coast will the clouds clear. The HREF shows skies clear by midday and returning quickly in the evening. This will also keep areas 20 to 30 miles inland cooler than on Monday due to the marine influence. The areas farthest inland may see a few more degrees of warming on Tuesday.

Wednesday an upper level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest and this may bring some rain to the north of the area. This will continue to enhance the marine layer and may bring some coastal drizzle to our area south of the Oregon border. This will cool inland temperatures back into the mid 80s. Thursday and Friday the flow remains fairly zonal and onshore. This is expected to keep inland temperatures near or slightly above seasonal normals. Saturday a few showers or sprinkles are possible in Del Norte county, but confidence is low on this. The ensemble clusters indicate a number of the solution keep the ridge slightly stronger and this may keep the rain farther to the north. MKK

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for terminals throughout Northwest California this afternoon and evening due to gusty north to northwest winds. Gusts from 20 to 30 knots can be expected. The gustiest winds are anticipated for terminals in Del Norte and Humboldt counties with the highest gusts at terminals along the coast and further north in these counties. Winds will decrease later this evening and overnight, especially for Humboldt County. Light offshore flow could help deter coastal stratus formation; however, MVFR to IFR ceilings could still develop tomorrow morning before sunrise. This is particularly true around Humboldt Bay, with stratus potentially pulsing in and out of ACV's aerodrome. Lighter and more westerly winds can be expected for terminals in Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties with mostly VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. /JLW

MARINE

Strong northerly winds will continue through tonight, with gale conditions in the outer waters, and also around Cape Mendocino and Point St George. Steep and hazardous seas will continue in response and are expected to propagate into the inner waters periodically. A Hazardous Seas Warning continues for the northern inner waters, while Gale Warnings remain for the outer zones. Conditions will improve Monday with easing winds and seas. Winds and seas will then remain low over the northern waters through mid week, while stronger northerlies remain in the southern waters, mainly confined around Cape Mendocino. A small, long period southerly swell will slowly build in through early this week.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475.