textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to peak with moderate to major HeatRisk through early week.

- Shallow marine influence growing along shore will keep conditions gloomy for the immediate shore through Monday.

- Cooling trend for inland areas mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure ridging continues to dominate across the area with the strongest focus shifting further north across Humboldt and Trinity Counties into Monday. High temperatures will continue to be above average, though not record breaking. High temperatures slightly weakened in Mendocino and Lake COunties today thanks to increased marine influence. In Ukiah, highs only reached the mid 90s. Meanwhile, temperatures jumped up in interior Mendocino and Trinity with Hoops reaching 105. These temperatures constitute a generally moderate HeatRisk with some areas of major risk for the warmest valleys. Heat has made for a robust but very shallow marine layer that has blanketed the immediate coast through the day today keeping conditions very cool/

Similar conditions will persist through Monday all around. Come Tuesday, heat will continue to peak for the northern half of the area, but weakening marine influence further South will push HeatRisk back toward major in Mendocino and Lake Counties, maybe promoting heat advisories once again in some areas.

High pressure will begin to weaken late in the week with interior highs pulling back into the mid 80s. Most deterministic models show weak trough pushing onshore around Thursday. This trough will definitely cool conditions and help deepen marine influence along shore, creating a more persistent and further reaching marine layer. Most models currently suggest the trough is too weak to tap into any tropical moisture. While some showers or very weak storms could be likely, currently profiles are not favorable for widespread convection. /JHW

MARINE

High pressure broadening over the area has continued to weaken the nearshore pressure gradient. North winds have all but disappeared across the waters with mostly calm seas. Such conditions will continue through the day on Monday.

High pressure rebuilding over the eastern pacific will help restrengthen north winds beginning Monday evening and into mid week. Strong winds will first build in the northern waters and then spread south. Near gale conditions are most likely for outer northern waters by Wednesday. That said, the inner waters will most likely remain mostly calm Short period sea will follow the winds and dominate the sea state. Despite calmer winds near shore, just enough steep short period waves will likely emanate into the inner waters to justify small craft advisories around Wednesday. /JHW

COASTAL FLOODING

High astronomical tides are predicted through Tuesday June 16 for Northwest California with the highest tide just before midnight each evening. High tides peaked around 9 feet on Saturday night. Weakened north winds and higher astronomical tide will likely push the tide even slightly higher Sunday night near 9.1 feet. High tides will cause minor coastal flooding round Humboldt Bay, including King Salmon and low- lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. /JHW

FIRE WEATHER

An ongoing heat wave has helped rapidly dry fuels. Interior high temperatures have been reaching near 100 with RH generally between 15 and 25 percent. Overnight RH recovery has also been poor with thermal belts with mid and upper elevation nighttime RH only around 50 percent. ERC has rapidly increased across the board with most RAWS likely to reach near the the percentile by midweek, even close to shore. That said, the general lack of wind will continue to suppress the risk of any fast moving fires. Hot and dry conditions will weaken by midweek.

Long term models show a weak trough crossing the area late in the week. Such a pattern could produce thunderstorms. Most models, however, currently show moisture profiles insufficient to really drive convection. Current thunder chances are less than 10 percents with the highest chances in NE Trinity County. That said, any showers that do form over high terrain are most likely to be dry given the setup and preceding conditions. /JHW

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ102-105-108- 111-116-117.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Monday for CAZ103.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM PDT Monday for PZZ415.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 3 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470.

Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475.