textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Very large surf today with breaking waves over 25 feet still possible. A second large swell is forecast to arrive late Sunday into Monday with breaking waves of around 22 to 28 feet. Increased beach erosion along with the possibly of some coastal flooding is still possible.

* Another cold front arriving this evening and lasting through early Sunday, brings another round of rain and strong southerly winds.

* A midweek storm is possible as the storm track remains set up over NW CA.

SYNOPSIS

A brief break in rain this afternoon will continue before another round of rain and winds arrives this evening and continues into Sunday morning. Large and energetic swell continues today, but will continue to diminish before another large swell arrives late tomorrow. Large breaking waves will continue.

DISCUSSION

A troughing pattern has set up over the Pacific Northwest, persisting through early this coming week. As showers from the previous system diminish, another frontal boundary approaches Northwest California bringing another round of gusty southerly winds and moderate rain later this evening and continuing into Sunday morning. This upcoming system is still projected to be weaker than the storm from this past Friday morning (11/13). Rainfall totals over the next 24 hours still look to be about half an inch in southeastern Lake County to nearly two inches in the mountains of Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Around an inch to 1.5 inches are forecast for the rest of Northwest California. Showers will continue through Monday. There is about a 10 percent chance for thunderstorms as the main rain band moves in late tonight. Through Sunday afternoon and into Monday, post frontal showers will persist with around another 10 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Wind Advisories have been issued for the Del Norte Coast and Northern Coastal Humboldt and the higher terrain areas to the east of Humboldt Bay (i.e. Kneeland) starting this afternoon/early evening and lasting into early tomorrow morning. Weather stations along the Del Norte Coast have already recorded max gusts of at least 40 mph. Remote coastal headlands of the King Range in southwest Humboldt and northwest Mendocino have an 80 percent chances of gusts to 50 mph or higher. The strongest winds will diminish by sunrise on Sunday with showers lingering through Sunday.

Another brief reprieve is forecast for late Monday into early Tuesday before another system will impact Northwest California late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing more rain and wind, but also high elevation snow. Models indicate that most of Northwest California will at least see 1.5 to 2 inch precipitation totals in a 48 hour period from late Tuesday evening to Thursday evening. The National Blend of Models (NBM) shows about a 70 percent chance of greater than 3 inches of precipitation in a 48 hour period for southwest Humboldt and northwest Mendocino (the King Range) from Tuesday to Thursday. There is even potential for some higher elevation snow impacts, mainly in Trinity County, during this same timeframe. This next system midweek will continue to be closely monitored. /JLW

AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)

Valley fog formed in the interior valleys early this morning, including UKI. Low ceilings have started to lift and scatter late this morning, bringing VFR ceilings across the area. Another cold front approaches this evening and overnight bringing gusty south winds of 30 to 40 kts to the coastal terminals. Heavy rain showers may bring IFR to MVFR ceilings and visibilities early Sunday morning to all terminals. JB

MARINE

A large northwest swell peaked over 30 ft early this morning and has started to subside. Buoys are still reporting seas 20 feet and seas near or over 18 feet are likely to continue into the evening tonight. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches the area this evening and overnight returning strong southerly winds. Strong gales to storm force gusts of up to 45 to 50 kts are possible north of Cape Mendocino as the front passes. Winds ease and turn westerly by mid morning Sunday. Another large swell of 20 to 22 feet at 17 seconds arrives Sunday afternoon, keeping seas above 18 feet through Monday evening. Expect continued storms through next week as the storm track looks to remain fixed over our area through Wednesday at the earliest. JB/DS

BEACH HAZARDS

The large northwest swell peaked at around 34 feet last night, bringing breaking waves of 30-40 feet with possibly a few sets higher than 50 feet. This swell has diminished to around 18 to 22 feet early this afternoon, but this still results in breaking waves of 22 to 30 feet. This swell will continue to diminish through the evening. The High Surf Warning remains in effect through 4 AM Sunday. A second large swell at 20 to 23 feet at 17 seconds is forecast to arrive late Sunday into Monday. This will likely warrant a high surf advisory with breaking waves of around 22 to 28 feet.

High surf in northern California can be very dangerous. It is recommended to stay away from jetties, exposed rocks, steep beaches, and the waterline in general during these events. Large waves can rush up the beach knocking down individuals. Very large logs and tree stumps can also be carried by the waves adding to the hazards on the beach. Low lying parking lots next to beaches could see water inundation and bluffs may be subject to coastal erosion during the peak swell Friday night. Please remain safe and avoid beaches, jetties, and bluffs during periods of high surf.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... High Surf Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for CAZ101-103-104- 109.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Sunday for CAZ101.

Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PST Sunday for CAZ103-106.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ450.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ455-475.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ455-475.

Storm Warning until 3 AM PST Sunday for PZZ470.