textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather along with near-normal temperatures through the reminder of the week. Enhanced west to northwest winds through the channeled terrain and higher terrain this afternoon and evening, shifting to the coast Thursday afternoon. Widespread breezy to gusty winds possible Friday and through the weekend, with low interior relative humidity values.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures through the reminder of the week.

- Breezy west-northwest winds through the channeled terrain and higher ridges today, then shifting to the coast on Thursday.

- Widespread breezy to gusty winds each afternoon and evening Friday and through the weekend, with low RH values promoting locally elevated fire conditions across the interior.

- Dry weather through Sunday, with chances (15-30%) of light rain Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Visible satellite depicts low- to mid- level clouds across Del Norte and portions of northern Humboldt counties as a weak cold front moves through, while mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Breezy west- northwest will develop rapidly along the channeled terrain and exposed ridges in the wake of the front. Gusts from 25 to 35 mph are most likely, with locally up to around 40 mph possible. Mendocino and Lake counties will see better coverage of stronger winds, where there is a high probability (60 to 80%) for gusts over 30 mph. The combination of dry weather, warm temperatures, and gusty winds will bring a locally elevated fire weather threat for portions of Lake County (see Fire Weather section).

Tonight, coastal low clouds and fog are expected to redevelop around the Humboldt Bay and vicinity, with bouts of patchy drizzle possible into Thursday.

Thursday, a surface high pressure will build in. This will aid in rebounding daytime temperatures across the area on Thursday. However, highs are expected to remain near-normal for this time of the year. In addition, winds shift to the coast, with breezy north- northwest gusts of 25 to 35 mph is expected over the coastal and exposed ridges. Locally strongest winds are possible over the exposed ridges in the King Range. Expect low clouds mixing and clearing out Thursday afternoon, allowing a mostly sunny day, with more stratus redeveloping overnight around Humboldt Bay and vicinity.

An upper-level trough will drive southward Friday and through the weekend, promoting temperatures cooling down 5-10 degrees. An associated weak cold front will track southward across the CWA on Friday, promoting widespread breezy west-northwest winds. Breezy conditions will prevail through the weekend, with the strongest winds over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges as the pressure gradient tightening across the area. Generally gusts from 25 to 35 mph is expected, with locally higher gusts. There is a 60-90% chances for gusts greater than 35 mph over the coastal headlands and higher terrain. Even at Lake County breezy to gusty winds are expected, with poor RH values over the higher terrain. Dry weather is expected to remain under prevailing dry weather through this weekend.

Ensemble clusters suggest a troughing pattern persisting over the area through mid-next week. Precipitation chances (15-30%) of light rain return on Monday and gradually diminish on Tuesday, especially for the northern portion of the area. Uncertainty remain high regarding to the amounts of precipitation over the area for this system. /ZVS

AVIATION

Lower Mid-level clouds around 4000-6000ft are quite persistent today over KCEC as of 20z. This is likely a result of the passing cold front, which has deepened the marine layer and lifted the cloud deck. VFR/MVFR conditions are likely at KCEC until dusk when stratus is projected to return. KACV will fair a bit better with higher ceilings around 5500-8000ft. Even with overcast skies, the flight categories have been a prevailing VFR for both KACV and KCEC. Occasional drops in visibility were the only things disrupting VFR earlier in the afternoon. Late tonight ceilings could come down below 500-1000ft with visibility obscurations bringing categories into LIFR. Probabilities for clear skies Thursday are high with models showing only Humboldt Bay and Eel river delta areas with lingering stratus into the afternoon, albeit light and sparse as the day progresses. /EYS

MARINE

Northerly winds are building across the waters today behind a weak cold front. Advisory level wind gusts of 20-30kts will occur through the afternoon. The southern waters will see further strengthening overnight. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to Gale Warning for the southern outer zone (475). A Gale Warning has also been hoisted for the southern inner zone (455) for Thursday when stronger winds are expected to work closer to the coast. The sea state will turn steep from short period seas, and this will be the dominant wave group other than a small long period southerly swell. Hazardous seas or a high end Small Craft advisory are likely after the Gale Warnings expire early Friday morning. The Gale Warning for the southern inner waters could be extended into late Friday night. /EYS

FIRE WEATHER

Breezy west- northwest winds will developed rapidly along the channeled terrain and exposed ridges this afternoon and evening, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph likely. Locally higher gusts are possible south in Lake County. Daytime RH recoveries are generally in the low 20s and mid 30s percent this afternoon. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are expected on zones 419 and 421 today due to low daytime RH in the upper teens to low 20s percent combine with locally gusty winds over the ridges. Tonight, onshore marine moisture will continue to promote moderate to good RH recoveries for areas below the inversion (<2000 feet).

Widespread breezy to gusty winds is forecast each afternoon and evening Friday and through the weekend, with low RH values and unstable weather conditions. This will promote locally elevated fire conditions across the interior, especially for Trinity, eastern Mendocino and Lake counties higher terrain. Dry weather will prevail through Sunday, with chances (15-30%) of light rain returning on Monday and Tuesday. /ZVS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Thursday for PZZ455.

Gale Warning from noon Thursday to 6 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Friday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475.

Gale Warning from 2 AM Thursday to 6 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475.