textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures are expected to warm back to above normal for the weekend. Moisture will increase over the weekend into next week bringing a slight chance of thunderstorms to the interior early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

An upper level low off the Pacific Northwest coast is forecast to make its way northeast into British Columbia which will enable temperatures to warm some for the interior of Northwest California as 850 mb temperatures increase. The warming temperatures aloft will likely make stratus more prevalent through the weekend. The flow is expected to be fairly light, although the 700 mb winds are generally out of the south and this should keep smoke to the north and east of the area unless a new fire develops to the south.

For the weekend high pressure strengthens and edges slightly to the west. This is expected to bring warmer temperatures to the inland areas. Highs are expected to be back in the mid 90s to around 100 in the warmer valleys. This will bring more minor to locally moderate heat risk.

Starting Monday, monsoonal moisture is anticipated to make it's way north and west into the area. At this point there doesn't appear to be a trigger to get any thunderstorms going and instability is fairly limited on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday has the best chance to see some thunderstorms in Trinity County with moisture from the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Elida possibly moving into the area. This will need to be monitored closely.

AVIATION

Northerly winds have eased at the coastal terminals after a gusty late afternoon and evening. Low pressure will begin to exit the area and retreat north along the western seaboard, allowing the broad high pressure to compress and stabilize over the area next week. Some lifting of ceilings and moisture deepening were observed as visibility overnight for the past few TAF periods. Conditions are being forecast for LIFR flight categories overnight into Friday morning at the coastal terminals with several hours of sub 500ft ceilings with light variable winds lasting into Friday morning and improving to VFR by the afternoon. VFR prevailing at KUKI overnight and most of Friday with winds under 10 kts and changing bearings every few hours.

MARINE

Northerly winds will span less area of coverage in the southern waters overnight but remain hazardous to small crafts for Friday after gusty periods late Thursday afternoon and evening. Winds will remain higher in the southern waters with near gale gusts in the lee of Cape Mendocino into very early Friday morning. In general, winds should start to diminish, slightly at first, but more so on Sunday. Winds are expected at only around 10 kt Monday and Tuesday before starting to increase again late in the week.

A larger southerly swell is starting to show up in the models. This is from Tropical Storm Elida off the Mexico coast. The current wave model shows these building to around 4 feet at 14 seconds on Monday. This could create some larger breakers than usual on the southern facing beaches, especially south of Cape Mendocino.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455-470- 475.