textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Generally mild, seasonable weather is expected for the next week.

SYNOPSIS

Slightly below normal temperatures are expected today. Some warming in the interior is expected Sunday and Monday before another trough brings cooler temperatures next week. Dry, seasonable weather is likely for the next week.

DISCUSSION

The upper low that brought a deep marine layer and upper-level moisture (and the associated high clouds) moves out of the area today and high pressure starts to build in behind it. Marine influence is expected to keep temperatures in the interior moderated with most areas in the 80s to low 90s. 60s and 70s are likely closer to the coast. Stratus along the immediate coast is likely to at least partially clear this afternoon with model soundings showing a very weak marine inversion.

Weak offshore flow tonight into Sunday morning may slow the reemergence of coastal stratus, though most models do show at least some clouds reforming. Regardless, breezy coastal winds Sunday afternoon are likely to scatter any remaining stratus bringing a mostly clear, but breezy, Sunday afternoon at the coast. Interior temperatures jump closer to normal with 90s likely for most interior valleys.

Monday through the middle of the week, a trough starts to approach the area bringing slightly cooler interior temperatures along with a deeper marine layer. Light winds offshore may lead to coastal stratus to be persistent into the afternoons. Moisture and instability is limited with this troughing pattern, which will limit thunderstorm potential. Generally mild, seasonable weather is likely for much of the next week.

AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)

MVFR ceilings from overnight have lifted and scattered out as of 17/18z at KCEC and KACV respectively. MVFR ceilings are likely to return late tonight as stratus fills back in around 8-9z. MOS guidance has ceilings coming down below 500ft with a few hours of reduced visibility, causing LIFR conditions at the coastal terminals and clearing out by 17/18z. The NBM, model blend has around a 20% probability of visibility < 1 sm for the coastal terminals with an area near shore between KCEC and KACV showing a 30% probability of < 1 sm of visibility around 14z Sunday. Mostly prevailing VFR categories for KUKI with southerly winds under 10 kts by Sunday afternoon. /EYS

MARINE

Moderate northerly winds return to the outer waters this afternoon and increase through Sunday with localized gale force gusts south of Cape Mendocino and fanning out into the southern outer waters followed by the northern outer waters by noon Sunday with the northern inner waters in SC.Y by the early evening. Winds diminish as a frontal boundary arrives Monday evening.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ475.