textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

The next round of heavy rain and strong wind returns tonight night through early Wednesday. Strong winds are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday. Heavy rain, mountain snow, and strong winds are expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Drier weather is finally possible by the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional moderate to heavy rain likely tonight through early Wednesday.

- Strong winds possible Tuesday night through Wednesday.

- Additional heavy rain and strong winds possible Wednesday night through Friday.

- Mountain snow above 4000 ft possible Wednesday through Friday.

..Thursday through Friday

The deep trough digs southward towards the northern California coast Wednesday night into Thursday. A surface low located right off the coast will lead to some uncertainty on the location of the associated winds and rain. Southerly wind gusts are once again likely to be strong again Thursday. Greater instability could support these winds to be stronger than the winds Wednesday, especially in the lower elevations. The worst case scenario shows gusts of 50-60 mph across much of the area, and this will need to be watched.

Cold air moving in from the deep trough could support lower snow levels and greater instability. Snow levels may drop further to 3500- 4000 ft. The cold air aloft could support small hail showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coastal areas Thursday and Friday. Total snow amounts of 2-3 ft through Friday is possible at Scott Mountain pass, while up to a foot is possible above at the highest passes of Highway 36 (around 4000 ft), depending on how much the snow levels lower.

NBM chances for over 2 inches of rain in 24 hours from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon are again 60-80% from about Cape Mendocino and southward. Chances fall to 10-30% north of Cape Mendocino, however any additional rain is likely to be impactful with saturated soils. Chances increase for an additional 2 inches of rain Thursday into Friday are already 30-50% south of Cape Mendocino and 10-20% north of Cape Mendocino. In all, 3-6 inches of additional precipitation are expected through Friday. A break in precipitation finally arrives this weekend. JB

AVIATION

VFR and a few showers expected this evening for all terminals. Light to moderate rain is forecast to increase across the southern portion of the area this evening, specially for KUKI where IFR and LIFR will likely develop into Tue morning. Light rain and MVFR conditions will be possible for the coastal terminals KACV and KCEC after 18Z Tue. Low level wind shear and turbulence is likely to increase late Tue afternoon and Tue night at all terminals.

MARINE

Gale and storm force winds are forecast Tuesday night into early Wednesday as a compact low accelerates northeastward across the waters. Large and very steep seas are expected on Wednesday in the wake of this storm. Another powerful storm is forecast to bring strong winds and large steep waves mid to late week.

HYDROLOGY

All rivers have crested and have started to recede. The Eel River at Fernbridge is the only one still within flood stage, and should drop below flood stage this evening.

The next rounds of rain are likely to produce flooding impacts again across the area. While most ensemble members show the heaviest rain heading to Mendocino and Lake Counties again, significant rain is still likely for the entire area. Small stream, creeks, and main stem rivers are all likely to see impacts again. It is also possible the focus of the heavier rainfall will shift north again. Currently the Russian River at Hopland the Navarro river at Navarro are expected to reach flood stage again. The Eel river and the Mad river are expected to be close to flood stage, but not expected to exceed it at this time. This will need to be monitored closely.

Additional rounds of heavy rain will promote flooding impacts in small streams, creeks, and urban areas. With the ground saturated, any additional rain could be impactful given there is little time for basins to drain.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Flood Watch from 10 PM PST this evening through Friday evening for CAZ101>115.

Wind Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ101-103.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ102-105.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 8 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ104-106.

Wind Advisory from midnight Tuesday night to 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ107-108.

Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday evening for CAZ107-108.

High Wind Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 6 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ109>115.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 6 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ455-475.

Gale Warning from 6 PM to 10 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ455-475.

Storm Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 6 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ455-475.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ470.

Gale Warning from 10 PM Tuesday to 10 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ470.