textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather continues today with breezy afternoon winds. Low relative humidities in the interior will bring an elevated fire weather threat. Rain is likely for the North Coast Monday. Much warmer interior temperatures are likely late next week.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures, dry weather, and breezy afternoon winds continue today.

- Elevated fire weather conditions in the interior with low afternoon relative humidity.

- Rain likely Monday for the North Coast, with the highest amounts north of Cape Mendocino.

- Much warmer weather likely likely next week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest Sunday will bring a few high clouds and bring slightly lighter winds than the previous days. This will bring slightly warmer high temperatures to the interior areas. Winds could still be breezy with afternoon gusts up to 20 mph.

Wet weather is expected to return to portions of the area on Monday. Models are in good agreement for generally light to locally moderate rain for Humboldt and Del Norte Counties starting late Monday morning and through the day. Total rain amounts in Del Norte range from just under 1" to localized 1.5" or more in the mountains. Precipitation drops off significantly farther south, with only around 0.10" to 0.50" in Humboldt and coastal Mendocino, and only a few hundredths in Trinity and interior Mendocino. Models have generally been trending wetter, and westerly flow could support higher rain amounts in Humboldt and Del Norte. Some high-res models are showing this possibility with the REFS showing fairly high chances (70%) for over an inch of rain for northern Humboldt. Lake County may only see a few sprinkles, if any. South winds may be breezy in Del Norte, especially in the higher terrain and coastal headlands where gusts could briefly reach 30 to 35 mph Monday afternoon. Interior high temperatures will also drop 5 to 10 degrees, with 60s or 70s forecast for most interior valleys.

This front quickly moves out of the area Tuesday with temperatures rebounding slightly to the high 70s. Low temperatures Tuesday morning may drop into the 30s in the coldest valleys, including Hayfork and Ruth. Frost is currently not expected, but this will need to be watched.

Warming temperatures are expected to start on Wednesday and will likely continue to to warm through the end of the week and into the weekend. Interior high temperatures in the 90s and possibly into the triple digits for the warmest valleys are possible by Thursday and Friday. Warm and dry weather is expected to continue into the weekend. JB

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

Only a few patches of coastal stratus are being observed so far. A weak marine inversion will likely keep stratus impacts minimal overnight, still some brief MVFR to VFR ceilings are possible. Low ceilings will clear shortly after sunrise. High clouds will increase today, but conditions will remain VFR at all terminals. Breezy north winds of up to 20 kts are possible this afternoon. JB

MARINE

Winds ease today as a front approaches the area from the north. The main exception is in the lee of Cape Mendocino where near- gale to gale force gusts are possible this afternoon. North winds continue to diminish tonight and turn southerly as the front approaches. Generally, seas are forecast to subside significantly as north winds ease, and could be as low as 4 ft Sunday night into Monday. South winds could be strong north of the Cape and briefly near or exceed gale force in the northern outer waters. A post frontal swell of around 7 ft at 10 seconds arrives Monday night into Tuesday. This could bring combined seas back to 8 to 9 ft. Strong northerly winds return Tuesday and are likely to continue through the work week. JB

FIRE WEATHER

Breezy west-northwest winds continue today, but are expected to be slightly lighter than previous days. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph are possible over exposed ridges and in channeled terrain. Minimum relative humidity in the afternoon is expected to drop into the teens or 20s for the eastern portions of the area (Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties). These afternoon winds along with low RHs will bring elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Wetting rain is very likely for Del Norte, Humboldt, coastal Mendocino, and western Trinity. Probabilities drop off farther south and east to near zero in Lake and southern Mendocino. JB

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ455- 475.

Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470.