textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Drier weather conditions are expected for much of Northwest California Wednesday through Saturday. Widespread light to moderate rain is expected on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Post frontal conditions are fairly mild after an accumulation that went just above 0.5 inches on the high end. A series of frontal boundaries will likely miss our CWA over the next few days with a similar system landing Sunday.

High pressure is expected to return Wednesday afternoon and dominate across much of the forecast areas through Saturday. Light rain or sprinkles with a series of warm fronts will be possible (20-50% chance) primarily for Del Norte and northern Humboldt, particularly in regions of southerly upslope flow. Overall it does not look too wet or impactful with amounts on the order of few one hundredths to perhaps (15% chance) for a tenth in 6 hours across Del Norte. Global ensembles and WPC guidance indicates more widespread light to moderate precipitation this weekend as another shortwave trough heads toward the Pac NW. There is still a some variability with the amounts of rain and timing, however Sunday appears to be the day when most of the rain arrives. Gusty winds will be possible as well in advance of a frontal boundary. Right now 925mb winds do not look strong enough to warrant beefing up the winds above the NBM. Multi-model ensemble continues to indicate a 40-60% chance for 0.25-0.50 inches in 24 hours ending 4 AM Mon, mostly for the northern most zones. Chance for major impacts from rain or snow remains low at this time. Drier weather is expected to return early next week, Mon-Tue, as a ridge aloft builds and light northerly to northeasterly surface winds return.

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

Lingering rain showers will taper off early Wednesday. Largely MVFR to VFR conditions are expected early Wednesday for the coastal terminals. Conditions improve after sunrise with ceilings likely lifting. Interior valleys, including UKI, could see fog develop overnight as higher clouds clear. Any fog and stratus will likely lift and scatter shortly after sunrise. VFR conditions are likely from mid morning through the evening Wednesday. JB

MARINE

South winds have quickly eased behind the frontal passage. Breezy winds of 20 kts or less are still likely north of Cape Mendocino, but otherwise light winds likely for the day today and Thursday. Short period seas are quickly falling as well, but westerly swells will keep seas elevated. The first mid period west swell builds this morning and peaks around 9 to 10 ft at 11 seconds. The second, larger swell arrives tonight and early Thursday peaks at around 12 to 14 ft at 15 seconds. Seas peak Thursday then gradually begin to subside into Friday. Combined seas may briefly fall below 10 ft Friday, but an additional mid period swell will keep seas elevated. Stronger south winds and steep seas return for the weekend. NBM is showing around a 40% chance for gale force gusts north of Cape Mendocino. JB

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PST Friday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Friday for PZZ470-475.