textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy northerly winds expected today across the area.

* High pressure is expected to bring warmer temperatures Tuesday.

* Cooler temperatures and a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms in Trinity county are expected Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon.

SYNOPSIS

Surface high pressure building offshore will strengthen the onshore pressure gradient against the interior thermal low into early this week. Expect a shallow marine layer pinned along the coast while the interior valleys have dry and seasonably warm conditions. For Wednesday, an evolving upper low will bring cooler temperatures and slight chance for interior thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

High pressure and offshore flow are bringing sunny skies and dry conditions to the area this afternoon. Breezy winds started along the coast and have worked their way inland. Tonight fog and stratus are expected to develop along the coast again, but may take their time expanding up to Crescent City. Shelter Cove and areas immediately downwind of Cape Mendocino is expected to remain clear tonight. Tuesday inland areas areas are expected to warm a few more degrees with highs in the low 90s in some of the warmer areas. Stratus is expected again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon an upper level low is expected to drop south and will likely move over Northwest California. THis is expected to bring some thunderstorms with it, however the exact track of the low remains fairly uncertain. For now have added thunderstorms to Trinity county and the Yolla Bolla mountains down in Mendocino county. There are a few models that show some showers making their way into Del Norte county, but the instability may be too weak for thunderstorms. Confidence has increased enough to add them to the forecast, but remains fairly low still. Depending on how fast this low moves out of the area there could be a few thunderstorms that linger into Thursday. At this point it looks like these would just be in northern Trinity county. Wednesday and Thursday inland temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees cooler than on Tuesday as the low moves overhead. It is uncertain exactly how this will impact the marine layer, but most likely the coast will see some afternoon clearing.

Friday and Saturday high pressure builds back over the area and temperatures are expected to see a few degrees of warming again. Breezy north winds are expected to return over the weekend. MKK

AVIATION

High pressure and offshore flow are bringing VFR conditions and breezy winds to the area this afternoon. Tonight stratus is expected to return. The HREF shows this returning about 06Z at ACV and it may be around 12Z for KCEC. There is still some uncertainty on this, but it looks like the offshore flow is weaker than this morning so expect there will be more stratus. The CIGS with this stratus are expected to be IFR or LIFR, but thick fog is not expected at this point. Inland areas will see stratus up the usual river valleys, but it is not expected to make it into KUKI. MKK

MARINE

High pressure is bringing strong to near gale force winds this afternoon, especially across the area outer waters. Tonight these will diminish closer to the coast, although waves may remain steep. Tuesday winds are expected to be similar to today. These will generate steep wind driven waves of 8 to 10 feet. Winds are still expected to gradually diminish slightly through the afternoon on Wednesday and more significantly Wednesday night as an upper level low moves down over the area. Some models do show these winds diminishing earlier, but confidence is low on the exact timing. Light southerly winds are expected Thursday as the low moves through and then out of the area. Northerly winds are expected to increase on Friday and more so over the weekend. MKK

FIRE WEATHER

High pressure building off the coast will continue the warming and drying trend across Northwest California through Tuesday. Wednesday afternoon or overnight an upper low has the potential to bring a few thunderstorms to Trinity county. There is still a lot of uncertainty on these storms, but have now added them to the forecast in Trinity county and down into the Yolla Bolla mountains in Mendocino county. There will likely be some rain with these storms, but some starts are still possible on the edges of the storms. It is possible that the there could be a few storms on Thursday, but these are expected to be limited to northern Trinity county and Siskiyou county. Warmer and drier weather along is expected to return Friday and Saturday. MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470- 475.