textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Much more moderate winds Monday with gusts generally below 20 mph even in exposed areas.

* Clear skies and cool air will enable extensive frost and freezing conditions in Trinity and Interior Humboldt Monday morning with some frost again Tuesday.

* More seasonable conditions this week but no wetting rain forecast for the next 10 days.

SYNOPSIS

Winds will be much more moderate Monday with clear skies persisting even along shore. Frost conditions early Monday will give way to seasonably cool but dry daytime highs all across the area.

DISCUSSION

Strong northeast winds will continue to quickly weaken overnight and into Monday. Clear skies, calmer winds, and interior dewpoints around 30 will allow many interior valleys to experience freeze and frost conditions early Monday. Even the coast is likely to see more isolated frost by sunrise. Otherwise, cool air will remain Monday with interior highs mostly in the 70s. Dry air and offshore flow will continue to inhibit the formation of any strong marine layer near shore.

Conditions will gradually warm through the week under the influence of weak high pressure. A marine layer will likewise form back up with some shallow stratus possible by Tuesday, though interior locations are likely to see at least one more frosty morning early Tuesday. The marine layer is likely to be very scattered and easy to clear through midweek. Weak winds and heat will likely peak around Friday with the warmest valleys reaching around 90. High pressure will aid in a more resilient marine layer by the end of the week. Ensembles remain dry throughout the extended forecast period (next 10-14 days), though there is a 10% chance of very light rain around day 8. Much weaker high pressure this weekend will generally result in more cool seasonable temperatures by the weekend with an expanding marine layer. /JHW

AVIATION...06z TAF

The strong mixing effect of winds has again enabled VFR conditions all across the area even along shore. Nearly all models show light offshore flow and dry air allowing VFR to continue through the next 24 hours. Winds will be much more moderate Monday with only some gusts near 20 mph close to coastal terminals. A very weak marine layer with isolated IFR ceilings could be possible as early as Tuesday morning (20% chance). /JHW

MARINE

Gale conditions are quickly weakening across the waters early Monday morning, though short period sea generally remain very steep over 12 feet even close to shore. By mid morning, winds in the inner waters will be much more moderate with gusts near or below 20 kts. Near gale conditions will remain in the outer waters near 30 kts. Short period seas will slowly fall, generally below 10 feet by Monday afternoon. Winds will continue to weaken and pull away further form shore with mostly calm conditions for the inner waters by daytime Tuesday. A long period swell currently around 5 feet at 19 seconds will gradually decay to 5 feet at 16 seconds through Monday and remain into midweek. /JHW

FIRE WEATHER

Multiple days of cool but dry air has helped drop ERC values back to the 60th percentile. Much weaker winds in the coming days will help greatly reduce overall fire danger. Conditions, however, will remain dry through the week (around 20% RH each day) with worsening overnight recoveries through Thursday. Smoke transport will also worsen through the week for any fires that do start. More moist air is expected to push across the area this weekend. /JHW

BEACH HAZARDS

A long period swell currently up to about 5 feet at 19 seconds will persist through the day Monday. As short period seas begin to fall, this swell will provide and increasing sneaker wave risk through the day. The swell will begin to decay Tuesday. The sneaker wave risk will lessen as the swell decays, but will remain through midweek especially as short period seas calm.

The highest risk is expected during periods of incoming tides. With high tides along the California coast at around 11am to 1pm Sunday and Monday along N CA coast. A positive tidal anomaly is yielding tides around 1-1.5 feet higher than predictions on top of higher than usual tides, adding to the threat. /JHW

COASTAL FLOODING

A new moon lunar cycle is causing higher than usual tides. A positive tidal anomaly of 1-1.5 feet will yield high tides that will be near or even reach advisory levels of 8.8 ft for Humboldt Bay today, and Monday.

North Spit high tide estimates: Today: peak was 8.71 ft at 12:24 P.M.; Monday: 8.6 ft at 1:01 P.M.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for CAZ101- 103-104-109.

Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ105-106- 110-116-117.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ108-111- 114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ450- 455-470-475.