textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Briefly warmer and drier conditions today.

* Another round of light to locally moderate rain likely Tuesday.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting around November 10th.

SYNOPSIS

Warmer and drier conditions continue Monday before another weak cold front with light rain crosses the area around Tuesday. COnditions will then remain mild and mostly dry through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

A drier and warmer airmass continues to build today bringing clearer skies and warmer interior high temperatures. Clear skies overnight may allow for some morning frost this morning in the coldest interior valleys of Mendocino, Humboldt, and Trinity Counties. High temperatures today warm to the 60s to nearly 70 in the warmest valleys. High cloud cover is expected to keep temperatures moderated somewhat, but should cloud cover be thin enough, some interior areas may exceed 70.

A front arrives early Tuesday bringing light to locally moderate rain and breezy southeasterly winds. There is around a 70-90% chance for Mendocino and Lake Counties to see over a quarter inch of rain. Chances diminish sharply north and west of Cape Mendocino. The range of rainfall is around 0.2 to 0.5 inches for much of Mendocino and Lake Counties. While unlikely, there is a 20% chance for over an inch along the Mendocino Coast. Conversely, the Humboldt and Del Norte Coasts have a 30-50% chance to see no measurable rainfall. Breezy southeast winds are likely ahead of the frontal passage Tuesday morning, with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph possible along the coast and ridges. Localized higher gusts of 40 mph or higher are possible in the King Range.

Behind this system, most ensemble members show weak high pressure building through at least Saturday. NBM continues to show low (20% or lower) chances for measurable precipitation over Del Norte and Humboldt Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, however this may only be a few sprinkles or coastal drizzle. Temperatures will gradually increase with peak temperatures around Saturday. Similarly, a marine layer near shore becomes more likely as the week goes on. Long range models suggest the next chance for heavier rainfall is around November 10th with a 50% chance of rainfall over 1.0 inch in that period. JB/JHW

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

VFR conditions are likely at the terminals for the next 24 hours as the marine inversion remains weak and offshore winds remain persistent overnight. There is a low chance (around 20%) for IFR to MVFR ceilings along the coast for a few hours near sunrise. Otherwise, VFR ceilings will stream in over the day. JB

MARINE

North winds and lingering steep seas continue to diminish as low pressure approaches the area. Otherwise, seas are dominated by a long period NW swell that peaks around 7 ft this afternoon and evening. A long period south swell of around 3 ft also remains persistent. A modest cold front is expected to pass early Tuesday with moderate south winds of 20 to 30 kts. Isolated and brief gale force gusts are possible early Tuesday morning. Winds ease and turn northerly midweek. /JB

BEACH HAZARDS

A very long period northwest swell has arrived and is currently around 5 feet at 20 seconds as of late Sunday night. This will peak near 7 feet today. This will bring an extreme threat for sneaker waves as winds remain light and other wave groups remain limited. A Beach Hazard Statement is in effect through this evening for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for CAZ101-103- 104-109.

Frost Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for CAZ106-110- 111-114.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 PM PST Tuesday for PZZ475.