textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather along with near-normal temperatures are expected through the weekend. Breezy winds are expected today through the weekend, with low relative humidities in the interior bringing elevated fire weather conditions. Light rain is possible Monday.

DISCUSSION

A weak front and upper level trough are moving into Oregon and Washington. The far southern end of this front may bring a few clouds to the area tonight. This will also bring breezy winds and cooler temperatures for Saturday. Winds will diminish and temperatures may warm slightly on Sunday. Mainly clear skies are expected to continue. It is possible clouds will return to the coastal areas, but at this point not expected.

Wet weather is expected to return to portions of the area on Monday. Models are slowly coming into better agreement that Humboldt and Del Norte counties will see some rain on Monday. Some of the ensemble clusters show lower amounts, and they also differ on how far south and east this will go. Current NBM probabilities of a wetting rain (0.1 inches) rapidly diminish you go into interior Mendocino county as well as Trinity and Lake county. There are also some discrepancies in timing on the models, but the best chances are expected to Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday there may be some lingering clouds and showers around with fairly cool temperatures. Highs may only be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will likely be the chilliest morning with some of the coldest spots dropping into the upper 30s. At this point frost is not expected, but it is not out of the question for cold spots like Ruth and Hayfork.

Warming temperatures are expected to start on Wednesday and will likely continue to to warm through the end of the week and into the weekend. Highs in the 90s are expected to be widespread by Friday across the inland areas. Warming is expected to continue into the weekend. MKK

AVIATION

Clear skies and VFR conditions are in place across northwest CA. Breezy north winds are also occurring across much of the area. Tonight a front moving by north of the area is expected to bring some clouds, but at this point it looks like conditions will remain mainly VFR. Have added SCT low cloud decks to highlight the potential for a brief period lower CIGS. Behind the front on Saturday clear and breezy conditions are expected again. MKK

MARINE

Strong to gale force winds continue in the southern waters this evening, mainly in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Steep wind driven waves have build to 8 to 12 feet in these areas. Areas farther north are seeing winds around 15 kt. These winds may diminish slightly tonight as a weak front moves by and then increase again by Saturday afternoon behind the front. The southern waters are expected to increase to near gale force again on Saturday. There may be some gale force gusts, but these are expected to be limited to mainly in the lee of Cape Mendocino. In addition to the wind driven waves there is a 12 second swell around 5 feet. This is expected to slowly diminish over the next several days.

Sunday night and Monday a front is expected to approach the area. The winds are expected to quickly diminish Sunday night and become southerly on Monday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on how strong these southerly winds will get. Some of the models are showing close to gale force, but other are showing 10 to 15 kt. So this will need to be monitored as it gets closer. A lot of this will depend on where the surface low tracks. Behind the front on Tuesday winds are expected to become northerly again. At this point it looks like they will increase gradually on Tuesday, but most models agree they will exceed 20 to 25 kt by Tuesday afternoon. Also on Tuesday a post frontal swell looks like it may build to around 7 feet at 9 seconds, but again confidence is low on this. Stronger northerly winds are expected to continue for the rest of the week. MKK

FIRE WEATHER

Gusty west-northwest winds are expected in interior areas each afternoon through Sunday. Lower elevations could see gusts of 20 to 30 mph each afternoon Temperatures will cool on Saturday with most areas staying in the 70s. This will keep the RH slightly higher than today. In the eastern portions of the area (Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties), afternoon relative humidities are expected to drop into the 20s Saturday afternoon. Locally higher winds in Lake County, where fine fuels are relatively dry, is expected to bring locally critical fire weather conditions. Sunday, winds are expected to be lighter, but still breezy with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. RHs are likely to be lower with many interior areas seeing RHs in the teens as temperatures warm back into the low 80s. A trough Monday is expected to bring cooler temperatures and higher RH to the area. There is also the potential for a wetting rain. Probabilities of a wetting rain range from over 70 percent in Del Norte to less than a ten percent chance in southern Lake county. MKK/JB

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for PZZ450.

Gale Warning until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ455-475.