textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

A warming trend is expected to continue through the end of the work week. Increasing heat across the interior, with interior widespread Minor HeatRisk. Expect unseasonable, very warm temperatures across all of NW California with a chance of record breaking heat for inland areas of Mendocino County.

DISCUSSION

A strong high pressure over the Pacific building into the region is promoting dry weather and above-seasonably temperatures across NW California. Despite some high level clouds streaming around the northern periphery of the ridge, mostly sunny skies are observed. Afternoon temperatures have been running generally 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared with yesterday's reading, with highs in the upper-60s to upper-70s across the interior. Tonight into Monday, low clouds and patchy fog is expected to redeveloped around the Humboldt Bay and vicinity.

Ridging remains dominant over the WRN CONUS through late in the work week, continuing to promote dry weather and warming trend pattern. High temperatures will warm to around 10-20F above the seasonal average across the interior on Monday, and remains through Friday. By mid week, the high pressure "flatten" as a series of shortwave attempt to move into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring some onshore flow; however, interior temperatures are expected to remain generally in the 80s into low 90s. The offshore flow regimen (easterly winds) is anticipated to slightly increase Thursday night into Friday, keeping the air dry and reinforce the warming trend. NBM probability for high temperatures exceeding 90F around Ukiah shows a 40% on Tuesday, diminishing to 20-25% Wednesday and Thursday, before increasing again to 50% on Friday. Expect a widespread Minor HeatRisk across the interior. The heat will primarily affect those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling or hydration. Even the coastal areas are expected to warm up to mid 60s this week, especially by mid week before seas breezes develop. However

Over the weekend, the ridge begin to show signs of weakening and shift eastward, but confidence remain high in continuing dry weather through the weekend. Temperatures will cool down, but remaining above normal for this time of year. /ZVS

AVIATION

After the early morning persistent low cloud deck filling back in after a brief scattering out, we have VFR at the coastal terminals which could last well into the evening. Model soundings showing a low level inversion due to the resilient high pressure ridging pattern, resulting in shallow cloud coverage lasting as long as they have into the afternoon at KCEC and KACV. HREF has scattered to broken higher clouds above 20k ft filling back in by the early evening along with an even less dense mid level scattered or few groupings showing up this afternoon but likely to no effect as far as flight operations goes. MOS guidance does hint at a few hours of LIFR early Monday morning for KACV. Calm winds and light cloud cover could make this happen. Probabilities for less than 2 miles of visibility is around 20% for KACV at 12-15z with KCEC a bit higher, around 30% for visibility less than 2 miles around the same time. KUKI likely to have prevailing VFR conditions into Monday. /EYS

MARINE

Northerly winds building this afternoon over the outer waters, just below criteria in the northern waters for small crafts at 17-19kts at the most and isolated to areas of our western most periphery of the 60NM boundary-diminishing soon after sunset. Most of the hazardous conditions will be in the southern waters with gusty winds on leeward side of Cape Mendo showing isolated gusts nearing Gale force at 01-04z. This narrow expansion fan covers a strip just off of the Cape and extends beyond the near coastal waters into the outer waters beyond 10NM. Due to the lack of area coverage it does not meet Gale criteria despite 34-36kt velocities. Wind waves from the stout northerlies at 5-6ft in as many seconds of period, along with the 20-26kt sustained winds will be hazardous for small crafts and so a SC.Y has been hoisted through Monday morning 13z for the inner waters and late Monday night early Tuesday at 06z. A longer period NW swell around 5-6ft at 11-13seconds arrives Tuesday but diminishes quickly as a longer period southerly swell around 2ft at 16seconds fills in Wednesday. /EYS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ475.