textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain will continue to diminish for Del Norte, Humboldt and Trinity counties into the afternoon. * Minor coastal flooding is possible around Humboldt Bay Tuesday.

* Stronger storm systems with more widespread rain possible Friday and into the weekend.

SYNOPSIS

A frontal boundary will continue to exit the area this afternoon. Light rain will continue to diminish with showers lingering into late afternoon for northern Trinity County. Tuesday through Thursday mainly dry weather and unseasonably warm temperatures are expected. Friday and into the weekend models are coming into better agreement on warm system bringing more widespread rain.

DISCUSSION

An upper level trough and associated frontal boundary continues east through Northwest California. Stronger southerly winds will continue to decrease as the front exits the region. Light rain will continue to diminish across the area this afternoon with rain still moving over northern Trinity and interior Humboldt early this afternoon and already over for Del Norte and coastal Humboldt. Areas farther south and east will see a mix of sun and clouds, but mainly dry conditions. Warm temperatures are expected in these areas with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Monday night all showers are expected to come to an end, but areas that saw rain could see fairly widespread low clouds and fog.

Tuesday through Thursday an upper level trough starts to approach the area, but then becomes a cutoff low and drops south keeping most if not all of the precip off the coast. This allows a ridge to build over the area bringing unseasonably warm temperatures to the inland areas. There are still some questions on how much moisture will linger. There will likely be some low clouds and fog in the valleys, although it uncertain how far south and east these will make it. Locations with valley clouds will likely be slow to warm up and not reach their forecasted high temperatures.

Models have come into better agreement on the potential for heavier rain moving into the area Friday or Friday night and continuing through Saturday night. The probability of over an inch of rain in the 48 hours ranges from 40 percent in eastern Lake county to 70 percent in Fort Bragg, 50 Percent in Weaverville and 80 to 90 percent in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. This is for the 48 hour period from 4AM Friday through 4AM Sunday. The current NBM shows rainfall totals for 1 to 3 inches for this period. This system looks warm with snow levels over 7,000 feet. Gusty south winds are expected with this as well. This still may end up weakening some, but confidence is starting to increase that we will see the first significant rain in while.

AVIATION

Strong gusty southerly winds have arrived with the front at KCEC along with heavy rain. Gusts up to 25kts this morning with IFR conditions likely no to improve until this evening. KACV has a bit different exposure and so gusts are not as frequent or intense, there are variable bearings of wind recorded with northerly under 10kts and occasional southerly and westerly winds also under 10kts so no alarm as far as wind shear thresholds at KACV forecasted despite the varying wind profile. Rain should taper off by 6-8z. Vicinity showers in the TAFs at KACV and -DZ at KCEC as rain diminishes tonight. Otherwise, light winds at KUKI with some minor obscuration from mist or shallow ground fog by 12-15z. /EYS

MARINE

Moderate to fresh southerly winds return today as another front moves into the area. Southerly winds are expected to fluctuate from gentle to fresh winds through the week as a troughing pattern remains in place. Small Craft advisory conditions will continue through at least midnight tonight for all area waters as a mid to long period swell continues but is expected to diminish overnight into Tuesday early morning but likely to come back into SC.Y criteria by Tuesday afternoon as wave height increases and the period shortens a bit. Stronger south winds are possible late week. /EYS

COASTAL FLOODING

Water levels inside Humboldt Bay continue to run 1.2 to 1.5 feet over the astronomical tides. Winds will continue to be southerly which tends to increase water levels slightly more. The water levels are expected to be right around 8.8 feet the next couple of days around high tide (11/10 @11:45am, 11/11 @12:06pm, 11/12 @12:55pm). However, high tides will drop into the weekend.

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ450- 455-470-475.