textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Stratus continues to dominates over the coastal areas. Above average temperatures persist inland with slight afternoon thunderstorm chances. A cold front arrives Monday evening bringing chillier temps. and light to locally moderate rain Tuesday for the North Coast as well as widespread breezy winds through the week.

LONG TERM

Monday evening, a cold front will dip into the area increasing the likelihood for rain in Del Norte and Humboldt counties, forcing strong NW winds in its wake, and drastically decreasing inland temperatures on Tuesday (~70F). Rain totals look mostly benign with the more extreme models (75th percentile) showing between 0.25-0.5" in Del Norte Co. and <0.25" for Humboldt Co. for the duration of the storm. Little to no moisture is forecasted outside of the far North Coast area. Winds will increase in the wake of the front for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 30-40mph possible. Details on the strength of the wind will depend on the path of the front. Global models are beginning to show more confidence on this path with each new forecast run. As the models close in on a path, a tighter range of timing, location, and strength will be available soon. DS

AVIATION

LIFR conditions along the coast will continue through the night with minimal clearing during the daylight hours Sunday. There is moderate confidence of conditions better the MVFR (~60%) and IFR (~50%) between 18Z-04Z for the North Coast. Southerly winds will prevail with periodic afternoon gusts at KCEC. Stratus has the potential (~70% of ceilings <3000ft AGL)to reach KUKI again tonight as southerly winds and a deep marine layer remain. VFR conditions will redevelop by 18Z Sunday. A chance (10-15%)of thunderstorms are possible in over NE Trinity County. DS

MARINE

Strong northerly winds continue to ease and are mostly constrained to the outer waters, especially in the far northern waters in the lee of Cape Blanco. Seas are forecasted to ease through the day Saturday as winds subside. The small craft advisory has been extended through 3am Saturday morning as steep waves continue at the Cape Mendocino buoy. This leaves the steep seas mostly constrained to the outer waters. Winds and seas continue to ease Sunday and Monday, with generally light southerly winds expected.

Global models are increasing the forecast confidence for the storm path of a weak cold front entering the area Monday evening. Winds and seas rapidly increase as strong NW winds fill in after the front. Expect these to build substantially through the week, especially for the southern outer waters where there is an 80-100% probability of gale force winds developing by Tuesday. A NW swell this weekend will mix with fresh NW short period seas making a relatively chaotic sea state as combined sea heights build up to 16ft through the coming week. DS

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ475.