textproduct: Eureka

SYNOPSIS

Clearer and more dry conditions will settle across the area this weekend with some particularly cold mornings with lows near freezing. Conditions will slightly warm and moisten next week with increasing chances of wetting rain late in the week.

Extended Discussion...(Monday through Friday)

Conditions will slightly warm but greatly moisten early next week as a weak warm front alongside a push of southerly winds crosses the area around Tuesday. Increasing midlevel clouds will generally limit the high temperature potential. There is high model agreement that a weak and quick moving trough will cross the area behind the warm front sometime around Wednesday. This trough will bring the first real chances of wetting rain since the first week of January.

Rain will most likely be relatively evenly spread across the area from North to South with only a slight focus on the North Coast. There remains very high model spread in terms of rain amounts. For low elevations, model means over 48 hours are around 0.2 to 0.5 inches, though there is a 10% chance of greater than 1.5 inches or even greater at higher elevations. At the same time, the bottom 30% of models still show no rain at all. In any case, more moist conditions are essentially certain, even should no rain occur, and even the very high end of forecast will pose little to no flood risk given the recent dry period.

Long range ensembles show generally good agreement that a wetter pattern will then continue through the end of January. Again, model spread remains high with round of light to moderate rain being most likely through next weekend. /JHW

AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)

Stratus is being observed across Humboldt Bay along with the Eel River Valley and the Anderson Valley. This deep marine layer is keeping ceilings high, with MVFR conditions being observed at ACV. The weak marine inversion will likely keep ceilings MVFR with brief dips to IFR early this morning. Scattering and clearing is possible, as well, and most models do show this as a possibility. The deep marine layer will bring a low chance of impacts to UKI (30% chance). Any impacts are likely to be IFR to MVFR and clouds will lift and scatter shortly after sunrise. Clear skies are expected by mid-morning Friday. North winds are increasing aloft near the coast and low level wind shear is possible in southern Humboldt County, especially around the King Range starting early this morning and continuing through the day Friday. Breezy northerly winds are possible along the coast in the afternoon, especially at CEC where gusts could exceed 20 kts. JB

MARINE

Northerly winds continue to increase and will peak this afternoon and evening. Gale force gusts are possible in the outer waters, while gusts of 20 to 25 kts are possible nearshore in the afternoon. Very steep seas of 9 to 12 ft will build today and peak in the evening and overnight. Winds ease tonight into Saturday and combined seas fall to 5 to 6 ft by Saturday afternoon. A series of mid-period west swells fill in over the coming days, each peaking at around 5 ft. Winds turn southerly by Sunday, but gusts are likely to remain below 20 kts at least through early next week. JB

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470-475.