textproduct: Eureka

KEY MESSAGES

* A moderate to major heat risk continues through the week for much of the inland areas

* Local areas of smoke are possible along the coast from the fires in Oregon on Tuesday.

* Humboldt coastal warmup Tuesday with offshore flow.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure continues to build, bringing hot temperatures to inland valleys. These are expected to continue through much of the week with moderate to major heat risk. Some coastal clouds are expected to return on the Mendocino coast starting late this afternoon and expanding Wednesday through late in the week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains the dominant weather feature for much of the next week bringing an extended period of hot temperatures to the inland areas. Most areas will see temperatures a few degrees warmer than on Monday. The exception to this looks like southern and coastal Mendocino county. Southerly winds are expected to drop temperatures by a few degrees in southern Mendocino county including Ukiah. The Mendocino coast may have seen it's warmest day today. The southerly winds are expected to push some shallow marine stratus northward. So far this has made it to about the entrance of SF Bay. It looks like it will make its way north of Mendocino and move onshore this afternoon or evening. Farther north in Humboldt county, the light winds may allow some warming into the low 70s, although confidence is low on this and it will likely vary from place to place. At this point it looks like the northerly winds off the coast will keep stratus away through Tuesday evening. At this point the winds are expected to weaken allowing stratus to move north. The current NBM and other models keep the stratus mainly off the coast through much of Wednesday. The presence of the marine though, will likely keep the coastal areas in the 60s again. Inland areas will generally see a degree or two of cooling on Wednesday although Mendocino, Lake and Del Norte counties may see a few degrees of cooling, so have the heat advisory ending for them while it remains in Humboldt and Trinity counties.

Thursday an upper level trough riding over the ridge is expected to push the marine influence slightly farther inland. Temperatures are still expected hot in most of the interior with highs over 100. Still Thursday might be the coolest day of the week. Friday the trough moves past the area allowing the ridge to rebuild and push a bit farther off the coast again. Temperatures inland are expected to warm backup a few degrees. The heat advisory may need to be extended in Trinity county and possibly portions of Humboldt or Mendocino county. Some looks possible for the weekend. MKK

AVIATION

Clear skies and VFR conditions continue across the area this morning. There may be a few local areas of fog or low clouds along the coast, but these should be fairly limited. This afternoon a southerly surge of stratus is expected to start moving up the Mendocino coast. This is expected to be not make it north of Cape Mendocino until at some point on Wednesday. Most areas are expected to see fairly light winds, although some of the southerly winds along the coast may be around 10 to 15 kt. MKK

MARINE

The northerly winds are continuing to slowly move farther offshore and diminish. The seas are slowly following. A local southerly surge of winds and stratus is expected to start making its way north of Point Arena this afternoon and spread north overnight. These are expected to be around 10 to 15 kt, but there could be local areas of 25 kt north the Capes. Generally light southerly winds and waves are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday and into the weekend northerly winds are expected to return to the area. Gales are possible over the weekend. MKK

FIRE WEATHER

The northeasterly flow aloft will continue this morning but then weaken this afternoon and tonight. This morning gusts of 20 to 30 mph are still possible over ridges and favorably aligned drainages. The current forecast is now showing a fairly big area of eastern Del Norte county with recoveries of only 30 to 40 percent. This will also impact the interior ridges of Humboldt, and Trinity counties to a lesser extent.

Afternoon RH will be fairly similar today and Wednesday across the interior with values in the low teens to some single digits South to southwesterly winds can be expected each afternoon.

Smoke discussion. In Del Norte County, the northeasterly winds are expected to start to bring some smoke out over the ocean from he fires in Oregon. The HRRR and RRFS models both show some smoke make its way out over the ocean early this morning. This may move onto coastal Del Norte and Humboldt Count through the day. Confidence remains low on this, but it will need to be watched. MKK

EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CA... Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ102.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ105-106.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ108-116-117.

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ110-111-113- 114-118>120.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ450-455.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 9 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ475.