textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms tonight, with more widespread rain and storms south and east of the KC metro.

- Widespread rain and storms likely for most of the area Monday afternoon through Monday night.

- Near seasonal temperatures expected midweek through the end of the week with additional rain chances Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Rainfall observations from across the forecast area ending at 7 AM this morning ranged from about a quarter in our far eastern zones to nearly 2 inches through parts of the KC metro. For tonight, it looks like the southern/eastern trend in the heaviest area of precipitation has continued. While most of the area will see scattered showers and a few storms, the most widespread activity is likely to be south and east of a Clinton, MO to Moberly line. Additionally, the period of rainfall north of this line looks limited to late this evening and overnight, shifting east of the area by 09-12Z. That limited time of rainfall and the northward extent means areas northwest of roughly I-35 may only see a few hundredths of rainfall tonight.

The more widespread area of rain and potentially thunderstorms will arrive Monday afternoon and continue into the evening and overnight hours. The main trough will begin to move into the Plains with strong forcing/ ascent ahead of the trough. As the low-level jet strengthens, showers and storms should become more widespread during the afternoon and evening hours. Our far southeastern zones remain in a slight risk for severe storms. Like yesterday, strong deep- layer shear will be present and the biggest uncertainty will be how much instability is able to develop. It seems more likely that the forcing/ ascent will be strong enough through the day that we'll stay cloudy with CAPE closer to the lower end of guidance. This should limit the severe potential as well. The heaviest rainfall with this round of showers and storms continues to look mainly east of I-35. Overall, precipitation amounts from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon range from around 3/4" across KC to around 2 inches in our southeastern zones. With that in mind, will hold off issuing any flood watches with this forecast issuance.

Once this system moves away from the area, we should see dry conditions through the middle of the week with near normal temperatures. Another robust system moves into the Plains late in the week/ weekend. That brings our next chance of precipitation Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Another wave of RA with some VCTS is moving into the region from the south. This precipitation is expected to linger through much of the evening anticipating to end around midnight. CIGs remain generally MVFR throughout with some fluctuations to VFR and IFR. Additional rounds of RA are forecasted starting mid morning continuing into the afternoon with a larger potential for TSRA towards late afternoon and evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.


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