textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* 30-40% chance light wintry mix likely for NW/N Missouri this evening/overnight - Freezing drizzle possible (20% chance) at times - Best chances over NW Missouri

* Seasonably warm/above normal temperatures return late weekend into next week

* Next chance for precipitation will be a 30-50% chance for rain Thursday and Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region this afternoon with temperatures generally in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs are on track to peak in the low-to-mid 30s except for our far south counties may approach 40 if skies can clear. Main forecast concern through the next few days is the potential for a light wintry mix this evening into the overnight hours. A weak shortwave moving out of eastern Nebraska will bring enough forcing for light precipitation. Model soundings show a fairly saturated layer through the dendritic growth zone indicating a better chance for flurries or sleet than freezing rain, but can't completely rule it out as hi-res model guidance continues to indicate a low chance (15%). In any case, guidance suggests a 30-40 percent chance of this light wintry mix mainly north of a line from St Joseph to Moberly with precip chances decreasing to the east as this band dissipates. Any light freezing drizzle or sleet could lead to a few slick spots on untreated roads, so use caution if you have to travel late tonight. Precip may start as early as 7 PM and should end by 3 AM.

Over the next several days we see upper-level ridging build back up over the Rockies leading to increasing heights over the Central Plains. This will lead to a warming trend, with high temperatures getting up into the mid 50s north to mid 60s south by Monday. We'll keep these warmer temperatures in place through Wednesday with our next chance for rain arriving on Thursday as a vigorous upper-level wave moves in from the southwest. This will lead off the transition in the upper-level pattern to a more active southwesterly flow regime. Additional chances for rain appear likely going into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Radar returns in northwest Missouri are still encountering a dry layer below it, with the nearest precipitation report occurring in Omaha in the past few hours. A light wintry mix is still possible in northwest Missouri heading into the overnight hours. The STJ and KC Metro terminals continue to trend dry, perhaps a few flurries spotted at some point Saturday morning. There are still clouds between 1-2kft AGL, but most observations are showing these are scattered, with ceilings located much higher. Therefore, mostly VFR conditions expected, though a few pockets of MVFR cannot be completely ruled out. Skies gradually clear late Saturday afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.