textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be closer to normal through Friday with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

- Hot and humid conditions build into the area this weekend and then intensify through the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows a trough moving through the Great Lakes area. A secondary trailing shortwave was evident moving through the IA/IL area. At the surface, a cold front moved through earlier, shifting winds to the north and allowing cooler/drier dewpoints to build south into the area as high pressure moves into the Northern and Central Plains. This high pressure will be the main feature influencing our weather through the end of the week. With that high moving through the region Thursday, highs look to be in the low to mid 80s across the area. But dewpoints settling into the lower 60s will be noticeably drier. That high pressure area shifts east by Friday, starting a warming trend as low-level flow trends southerly again. This should lead to highs a few degrees warmer than Thursday. Moisture will lag the increase in temperatures so we'll still see lower humidity levels Friday.

For the weekend and into next week, the upper ridge that was centered over the western half of the US will shift east, aiding the warmup, and persistent southerly flow will allow for greater moisture to return into the area. High temperatures will climb back into the 90s with this pattern with dewpoints climbing back into the middle to upper 60s Saturday, and potentially into the lower 70s by Sunday. For now, Monday looks like the hottest day of this forecast with highs climbing into the middle and upper 90s. The GFS is a strong warm outlier here and looking at a violin plot of max temperatures in the forecast area for Monday, it clearly shows the GFS is a very warm outlier and well above the 90th percentile of guidance. Our forecast is closer to the 75th percentile. With the increasing dewpoints factored in, our heat index values climb back into the 100-105 range for most locations Sunday and Monday, with the brunt of the heat focused south of the Missouri river Tuesday and Wednesday. We'll need to monitor this period for possible heat headlines as a small increase in moisture will lead to more widespread heat index values near 105. In fact, by early next week, there is a greater than 75% chance for seeing at least major HeatRisk and low probabilities of extreme HeatRisk.

Regarding precipitation chances through the forecast, they look small and mainly across far northern Missouri, along the periphery of the upper ridge for next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

High pressure will keep skies mostly clear during the overnight hours. Some areas of fog may develop. Of the TAF sites, STJ may fill in with fog in the river valley. Unsure if dense fog will develop in area outside of river valleys through Thursday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.