textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon through Monday with all modes of wintry precipitation possible.

- Unsettled weather pattern sets up next week with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible. Any severe threat appears low but flooding may be an issue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

This afternoon high fire danger conditions are occurring across the area with temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and dewpoints in the 25-35 range yielding RH values in the 15-25% range. The dry conditions coupled with winds out of the SW/W gusting to 20-30 mph have prompted a Red Flag Warning to be in effect from 1PM-6PM. This evening, winds will subside as a surface ridge of high pressure builds into the area and relative humidity values will increase bring the high fire danger conditions to an end. Tomorrow a upper level trough digging from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will force a cold front through the area. Moisture will be meager with this front but a few showers may be possible along and south of the Highway 50 corridor tomorrow morning/early afternoon. Highs will range from the mid to upper 50s across the northern CWA where the cold front passes earlier in the day to the low to mid 70s across the south.

Sunday, provides an extremely tricky winter weather forecast. The setup depicts cold air in place with temperatures Sunday morning in the mid 20s to mid 30s. The cold front that moves through the area Saturday will become stationary across northern OK through northern Arkansas. A southerly LLJ will increase and nose into the area as a 700mb trough moves into the area from the central Plains. Moisture will spread north into the cold air with additional lift provided by the shortwave late Sunday morning/afternoon. P-type across the area is extremely tricky due to temperature profiles near and at the surface. Model soundings suggest areas along and south should remain warm enough to remain above freezing at the surface and with rain and perhaps sleet to be the main precipitation type. Further north across northern Missouri (Highway 36 and north), the warm nose is not as pronounced with snow the main p-type at initiation. In between, model soundings produce all p-types for a true wintry mix. These conditions are expected to persist into the overnight Sunday night however, as we get into Monday morning temperatures are forecast to rise. However, northern Missouri is still expected to remain below freezing and with no moisture in the dendritic snow growth zone Monday morning, precipitation may continue to fall as freezing drizzle across northern Missouri where light rain or drizzle remains possible further south on Monday with highs rising into the 40s by Monday afternoon.

The pattern continues to remain active next week as several chances for precipitation will be possible. Fortunately, temperatures are expected to be warm enough for precipitation to be all in liquid form. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 50s to lower 60s and will rise into the 60s to near 70 by Thursday. The NBM produces PoPs for every period Tuesday through Thursday due to timing differences in the systems produced by the different models however, there will be breaks in the rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with just ocnl few-sct high clouds. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the W btn 10-15kts thru 23Z-01Z when winds become lgt and vrb. Winds will then incr out of the E/ESE aft 08Z-10Z to 5-10kts and then veer to the SE and incr to 10-15kts aft 13Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105.