textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon, though most areas will stay dry. Localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms.

- Heat and humidity continue for the next several days. Temperatures and heat indices elevate through the weekend, with Sunday and Monday expected to be the warmest days.

- Relief from the heat arrives for Wednesday and Thursday, with lesser humidity and highs in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Scattered thunderstorms continue to progress northeast through portions of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, and are expected to overspread the area over the next few hours. As with yesterday, these storms will pose a risk for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. That said, coverage is not expected to be as widespread this afternoon, and this should temper the flash flooding threat when compared to yesterday.

Any lingering storms are expected to quickly wane after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and instability, with dry conditions expected overnight. The threat for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist into the weekend as well, though confidence in this wanes somewhat. A cold front, progged to move into northern Missouri by late Saturday evening, looks to be the focus for at least scattered thunderstorm development near HWY 136. Deep layer shear does increase somewhat ahead of this boundary, but still to only ~15-20kts. Also, forecast soundings do show dry air aloft, unlike in previous days this week. This could allow for at least limited updraft organization, and a threat for damaging winds appears possible.

Attention then turns to the increasing heat as we head into the weekend as well, with Sunday and Monday expected to be the warmest days. Persistent warm advection aloft into Monday will boost H85 temperatures towards the 90th percentile climo, as high as 22-24C by Monday afternoon. This persistent warm advection will push highs into the middle 90s by Sunday and into the upper 90s on Monday. With dewpoints still in the lower 70s, this will push heat index values towards 100 to 105F each afternoon. Trends will continue to be monitored closely for potential heat advisory issuance, especially for Monday afternoon.

Confidence in heat concerns wanes for Tuesday, as a cold front begins to push across the area from north to south. The positioning of the front will drive what areas may see another day of heat index values in the 100 to 105 range, with areas south of HWY 50 currently under greatest risk locally. Much drier air will be ushered into the area behind this front, with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s in its wake. This will bring much welcomed relief from the recent hot and humid conditions, with lower humidity and highs in the 80s both Wednesday and Thursday. The threat for thunderstorms looks to return by late week, as the upper ridge reestablishes across the southern Plains. This places the area in strengthening northwest flow aloft. Deterministic guidance has begun to suggest a few rounds of thunderstorms as shortwaves progress around the apex of the upper ridge axis. All this to say, predictability in timing and placement remains low, though the threat for thunderstorms looks to return by late next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Outside of scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Any thunderstorms this afternoon pose a risk of brief MVFR CIGs/visibilities, though confidence in impacts to terminals remains too low for inclusion for now.

Winds remain southwesterly this afternoon, with gusts as high as 15kts expected. The southwesterly winds continue tonight and tomorrow morning, at 5 to 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.