textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue with highs into the lower 90s on Wednesday.

- Not as hot with multiple chances for rain and storms, some strong, Wednesday night though Saturday.

- Hot and dry returns next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Rest of today and tomorrow... High pressure will slowly move east, but will still be the main force for us through the day tomorrow. This will keep us in the same mostly sunny and light wind setup through the day tomorrow. The slow ramp up in temperature will continue tomorrow with highs in the lower 90s as WAA drives more heat in.

Wednesday night through the weekend... Wednesday night will see the upper high start to retreat, allowing for us to move into a more active pattern aloft where multiple shortwaves will move through. The first round on Wednesday night into Thursday morning will most likely be off to our west and north closer to the cold front and main area of forcing. Whatever develops will likely be decaying as it heads east, but some ensemble members do keep it together long enough for us to see some rain on Thursday morning. Chances for strong to severe storms are low for this as the better environment remains closer to the front. How this morning rain and possible convection plays out will be key in determining the heat impacts for Thursday. If we can stay cloudy from this rain it will limit the heat vs clearing out or staying clear will cause a more significant heat risk day. Overall right now it is south of I-70 that has the highest chance for heat impacts on Thursday as it will be farther from possible morning rain and closer to the WAA from the advancing warm front. It is this same warm front that will drive the next round of rain and storms for Kansas and Missouri. As this front lifts north it will provide the CI mechanism for the next round of storms. SPC has a marginal (1 out of 5) severe risk for Thursday tied to this chance. Ample instability, but more spread in guidance on the shear. Will need to get more CAM runs to better resolve where the severe threat could set up. This boundary looks to stall over us and will provide additional chances for rain until it moves out on Saturday.

Next week...An impressive ridge looks to build in early next week with a possible 600 dm upper high possible over the Midwest. This would easily bring temperatures into the 90s. The bigger question on impacts will be how much moisture we will see. Current guidance has dew points right on the edge of what would be another week of extreme heat. Fairly high confidence on the temperatures, but less on the dew points and therefore the overall heat risk.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

About as quiet of an aviation forecast as you can get. VFR with light and variable winds. Some diurnal Cu, but even where it becomes a ceiling it will stay VFR.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.