textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are likely (50 to 80%) through early Wednesday morning.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected (90 to 100%) Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

- Another round of showers and storms are likely (60 to 90%) Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Strong to severe storms will be possible once again.

- Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely across the region by Saturday, with isolated higher amounts possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current radar imagery (as of 2:00 AM CDT) shows numerous showers and storms ongoing across the area. This convection will continue through the early morning hours as it slowly progresses off to the east/northeast. A cold/stationary front is draped across the far southern portion of area which is resulting in the storms being elevated in nature. The main threats with these storms are marginally severe hail and heavy downpours, which may lead to flash flooding if training occurs.

A brief break in shower/storm activity is expected Wednesday morning, although overcast and gloomy conditions will remain through the day. A trough is expected to ejected from the Rockies Wednesday, becoming slightly negatively tilted as it moves across the Great Plains. This will be the focus of our next round of showers and storms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The Wednesday afternoon threat seems to be diminished a bit from previous model runs, likely owing to cloud cover remaining present through the day and instability values struggling to build. In the 00Z guidance, most CAMs struggle to convect at all Wednesday afternoon, however, the conditional threat of strong to severe storms does still exist if clearing is able to occur given the 40-50 kts of deep layer shear.

However, at this point, the primary focus is on the round of showers and storms that could produce severe weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. As the trough ejects, surface cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the Rockies. The stationary front that is currently across the southern portion of the CWA will lift northward as a warm front Wednesday evening bringing moisture return to the area in the form of PWAT values around 1.50" (99th percentile for April). Showers and storms are expected to begin late Wednesday afternoon and persist through the night, which brings the concern of flooding into play, particularly in areas that saw heavy rainfall Wednesday morning. As the low pressure system moves just north of the area, a strong cold front will advance across the area early Thursday morning, bringing the primary severe threat. Storms are expected to form along the cold front with the main threats being damaging winds and perhaps an embedded tornado or two. Storms will exit the area with the front Thursday leaving behind dry conditions for the majority of the day on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The dry stretch behind the mid-week system will not be long lived as another trough is expected to eject into the Central Plains on Friday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur on Friday with the cyclone currently progged to follow a remarkably similar path to the system on Thursday. The CWA will be placed in a broad warm sector Friday afternoon with 2000-3000 J/kg of of SBCAPE expected to build. This will once again bring the possibility of strong to severe storms with the SPC currently having the area in a day 4 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5). A cold front will pass Friday evening/night, which will bring an end to shower/storm chances through the extended. In total, widespread rainfall values of 2-4" are expected across the area with locally higher amounts possible.

High pressure will build into the area Saturday with clearing skies, which may create a setup for a freeze Saturday night. Lows are currently expected to be in the low 30s, so this is something to keep an eye on in the coming days. Temperatures will return to the 60s by early next week creating more of a spring-like feel.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

IFR to low MVFR ceilings will prevail through the afternoon and overnight hours, before improving tomorrow morning. Easterly winds will prevail during this time and then trend to the south and southwest by late in the forecast period. Once winds become southwesterly, strong gusts are anticipated, potentially in the 30-35kt range.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon for MOZ017-021>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday afternoon for KSZ057-060-103>105.