textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds tomorrow morning with southwest gusts of 50 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued.

- Severe storms are expected to develop along a cold front tomorrow afternoon. Initial threat will be supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging hails, and a few tornadoes. Storms will transition into a line later in the evening with threats mainly being strong winds and a few tornadoes.

- Active pattern returns the this weekend with potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Surface high pressure is building in from the northwest this afternoon as a weak cold front is shunted to the south. Radar shows that the showers from this morning are quickly diminishing as they move south.

Overnight, an upper level jet strengthens out of the northern Rockies diving southeast. A surface low develops over NE and quickly deepens. This leads to a very strong low level jet cruising across the central Plains with speeds upwards of 50-60 kts. As the boundary layer decouples in the morning we may see some of this momentum transfer to the surface. EFI wind gusts have continued to trend up with values of 0.9 encompassing portions of north central MO. The latest REFS also suggests at least a 50-70% chance of wind gusts in excess of 45 mph after 9AM. A Wind Advisory has been issued for tomorrow morning. As the low level jet pushes east through the day winds will gradually weaken.

The low level jet weakens a bit and shifts to the east through the afternoon as the surface low pressure moves through IA and into IL. However, the region will have been inundated with strong southwest flow which will continue to persist. This will lead to a very warm and moist environment with highs climbing into the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s. Heat indicies will be in the triple digits with a heat risk of 2/4.

A cold front will advance across the region in the afternoon dropping south through the evening hours. This boundary will be the focal point for strong to severe weather to develop. The convective parameter space features a high amount of instability due to our warm moist environment with MLCAPE projected to be in excess of 3500 J/kg. Our bulk shear is also expected to be favorable for severe weather with speeds around 45 kts. Storm mode may initially be discrete as mean wind flow hits the boundary layer at a slight angle. But as the cold pools congeal, mode will quickly transition to linear. Supercell development initially will carry the threat of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As we transition to a more linear mode, straight line winds with a few tornadoes will be the main threats. With all the ample ingredients in play the main unknown will be the location of the cold front in the afternoon. The latest CAMs are showing fairly good agreement with the boundary being south of the metro and trailing NE into Macon. However, the deterministic guidance still sags the boundary back through the metro. Overall there is high agreement on initialization after 3PM. For now, SPC has an enhanced risk (3/5) for our central and eastern counties with the metro and northwest MO lowering to slight (2/5) and marginal (1/5).

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Thursday the cold front sags south with high pressure building into the Northland. Quieter weather will be on tap for Thursday and Friday. Highs will be cooler on Thursday with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s, slightly warmer on Friday with highs climbing into the mid 80s.

The weekend sees our pattern change back to high activity with a 500mb jet moving across the Central Rockies. Cross barrier flow will lead to cyclogenesis and a strengthening surface low over western KS. High pressure gets shuffled off to the east setting up a favorable gulf connection. IVT increases rapidly leading to PWATs for the weekend approaching 2" A mixture of high moisture poised with some passing shortwaves may lead to severe weather concerns once again. At the moment SPC has eastern KS and NW MO to include the metro in a slight risk (2/5) for severe weather. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is really hammering the midwest with some impressive QPF totals which will lead to flooding concerns. Which areas will see the lion's share of the liquid is still difficult to pin down with the GFS being the most bullish showing a few areas receiving over 4" of rain. WPC currently has a slight risk (2/3) for excessive rainfall encompassing the CWA this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Clearing skies through the afternoon. Overnight a strong low level jet sweeps in from the west leading to low level wind shear of 50 kts. After day break these winds will mix to the surface leading to a very windy morning. Winds will gradually weaken through the day. Although not in this TAF period there is potential for showers and storms in the afternoon and evening. These are expected to fire off a cold front, depending on where the front is located in the afternoon it may impact a few terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020-021-028-029. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ007-008- 016-017-022>025-030>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025- 102>104. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060- 105.