textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms possible Thursday morning. These will be non-severe. A better chance for strong to severe storms will exist late Thursday evening into the overnight.

- Much warmer and more humid conditions Friday and through the weekend.

- Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Friday and into weekend. Friday, particularly, could feature large hail and damaging winds with storms that develop during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

1020 mb surface high centered across the area early this afternoon is expected to shift south and east. As mixing dies away, surface winds are expected to shift out of the southeast, gradually increasing as deepening trough over the Rockies pushes east. Small amount of isentropic lift develops on the 300-305K surfaces towards 12Z across eastern KS/far western MO. With this weak lift, potential exists for a few elevated showers/thunderstorms to develop. These storms look to be largely confined along and south of I-70, and west of highway 65. Breezy conditions are expected to develop on Thursday drawing Gulf moisture north. Ribbon of instability is expected to develop across central into eastern KS, with weaker instability farther east owing to steep mid level lapse rates from 600-500 mb. If ample mid level moisture is able to get far enough north/east, could develop an isolated storm or two Thursday evening as a shortwave moves east in zonal flow.

Heat and humidity continue to build north on Friday, with highs approaching the upper 80s to potentially the lower 90s. Another late evening short wave is expected to build east in zonal flow, and could see strong storms develop in the late evening hours capable of gusty winds or large hail; however, wind shear looks somewhat weak (< 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear) south of highway 36.

Warm and muggy airmass is expected to linger across the region through the weekend as additional shortwaves track through the Upper Midwest leading to periodic chances of thunderstorms through the weekend. Strong cold front is expected to move through the region Monday night leading to the best chance for widespread strong-severe storms. Cooler, more tranquil conditions are expected behind the front on Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 651 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. A center of high pressure sits over the region leading to light and variable winds for the most part. Some residual diurnal mixing is promoting intermittent wind gusts, but those should curtail after sunset. As the high slides east winds reorient out of the SE becoming gusty after sunrise. Gusts peak in the afternoon around 20-25 knots with some 30 knot wind gusts possible in NW MO. Isolated -RA is possible early tomorrow morning; however, confidence in coverage and location are too low to include in the TAF at this time. A second round of RA/TSRA is possible tomorrow night expecting to arrive after this TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.