textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid today, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. - Showers and thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday; severe weather not anticipated. - Warm/hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend with a few isolated pop up showers and storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Ridging with weak mid to upper level flow continues over our CWA this morning south of a northwesterly oriented jet streak extending from southern Saskatchewan into the Great Lakes. At the surface, an east to west oriented cold front is analyzed from northern Nebraska through north central Iowa and into southern Wisconsin, with a 1019 mb surface low near St. Louis yielding 5-10 mph southerly winds across our CWA with temperatures in the 60s. A weak shortwave will move eastward across the Southern Plains today, with increased theta e advection across our area, allowing for temperatures to rise into the lower 90s for most locations and dew points to increase from the 50s at present moment to the mid 60s by this afternoon. Hot and humid conditions will yield afternoon heat indices into the mid 90s for most locations. This will also yield moderate to high instability across the region with little to no convective inhibition. Despite little to no forcing for ascent, this may still allow for a couple pop up showers or thunderstorms to develop during peak heating this afternoon.

By later tonight, the compact shortwave trough enters into central Texas, and eventually lifts northward toward the ArkLaTex region overnight with the surface low INVOF DFW. Warm and humid conditions will continue through the overnight hours, with overnight lows only dropping into the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. By Thursday afternoon, the H5 low is progged to make its way into eastern Oklahoma with a southerly mid level jet streak extending northward into the Missouri Ozarks. CAM guidance suggests isolated to scattered showers and storms developing by early to mid Thursday afternoon for areas primarily along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor. Strong to severe storms are not anticipated, but with PWATs on the order of 1.8, storms could be efficient rain producers and could produce some locally moderate rainfall. However, at this time, the area most favored for locally moderate rainfall looks to stay south of our CWA. CAMs suggest convection should diminish Thursday night with the loss of daytime heating.

The closed H5 low should slowly advance further to the NE over SE KS/SW MO by Friday, with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible once again on Friday afternoon and evening, especially toward the northern Ozark Plateau toward central Missouri. With the better chances for more robust convection remaining east southeast of our area, WPC has shifted the marginal risk for excessive rainfall out of our CWA entirely.

The closed mid level low is progged to fill by Saturday, with guidance suggesting a large mid level high setting up shop over the Desert Southwest with associated ridging across much of the western CONUS with our region located on the eastern periphery of this ridge. Daily high temperatures should generally remain in the mid to upper 80s (interquartile ranges at MCI for MaxT between roughly 83 and 90 degrees for Saturday and Sunday, increasing to 86 and 91 degrees, respectively, for Monday) with humid conditions continuing. A few pop up showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Saturday and Sunday given the continued instability and limited convective inhibition, but generally speaking PoPs only remain around 20% or less CWA wide. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase a bit (to around 30%) for Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough is progged to move from the northern Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, which may initiate convection across the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Dry/VFR conditions with light southerly winds are forecast through the period. There may be a few isolated showers this afternoon but probability of any hitting a terminal was too low to add a PROB30 group.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.