textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will sweep through the region on Friday, bringing gusty northwest winds and a chance of scattered flurries and snow showers Friday afternoon and evening. Very little or accumulation is expected along with no travel impacts.

- Much colder temperatures are forecast on Saturday, with high temperatures in the teens and 20s. Overnight low temperatures Sunday morning will dip into the single digits with wind chill values of 0 to -10 degrees.

- Dry weather with slowly moderating temperatures is forecast Sunday into the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

As H5 ridging over the West Coast elongates poleward, Arctic air from the Hudson Bay region of Canada will become dislodged and and advance southward into the region on Friday. The associated surface cold front will move through the area Friday morning and afternoon. Post-frontal gradient winds will increase and become breezy from the NW. The 12z HREF guidance shows a 50-90% of wind gusts over 30 mph and a 20-60% of gusts over 35 mph. Temperatures will rise into the lower to middle 30s in the morning and early afternoon, but will start to fall into the 20s by late afternoon and evening.

Have upped the chances for flurries and snow showers on Friday afternoon, as an H5 vorticity max moves through area. Mid-level lapse rates will be steep, and most CAM guidance does show about 25-50 J/kg of MUCAPE present. This will allow for flurries and snow showers to develop. The limiting factor for any potential snow squalls will be low-level dry air below the 850 mb level, so a good bit snow that does develop will evaporate before reaching the ground, resulting in mainly ISO- SCT snow shower coverage. Cannot rule out a trace of snow in some isolated locations in north- central MO, but for the great majority of the area, no accumulation will occur. Similarly, the dry air will limit snowfall rates, which will prevent travel impacts from developing in locations that do see sticking snow.

Snow shower and flurry chances will wind down Friday night as the forcing wanes, setting the stage for a very chilly Saturday. As the Arctic air settles over the region, temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around -20C on Saturday, which is around the 1st to 5th percentiles. This will yield high temperatures about 10-15 degrees below normal, in the upper 10s to upper 20s from north to south. Low temperatures by Sunday morning will fall into the single digits with wind chill values of 0 to -10 degrees forecast during the morning hours.

The deep troughing over the central CONUS will begin to shift to the east of the region on Sunday, and temperatures will begin to moderate a bit, as an mid-level baroclinic zone sets up over the area. However, it will not be a linear warming trend, as additional lobes of Arctic air brush against the forecast area. This will result in high temperatures near normal January values on Sunday, but falling back into the 20s on Monday/MLK Jr. Day before rebounding again back to normal values for the middle of next week. As the overall synoptic pattern remains dry/anticyclonic, no precipitation chances are expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Steady SW winds will continue through this evening, sustained at 8- 12 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Overnight winds will shift to the W and eventually NW around 5-10 kts ahead of the approach of a cold front along with thickening and lowering mid-level cloud bases. As the front passes Friday morning, winds will increase rapidly from the NW, sustained at 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.