textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend and into Monday. This includes multiple chances for strong to severe storms.

- Saturday evening: S and W of the KC Metro

- Sunday night/overnight: trending further north toward NW/N Missouri, but areas further south remain possible

- Monday: Possible over much of the area, especially east

* While no current or ongoing river or areal flood issues over the area, issues will be possible for any areas that receive multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall over the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A very pleasant day today has prevailed in the wake of the Thursday evening thunderstorm event, as surface high pressure continues to ooze in and across the Northern and Central Plains. Northerly winds have and will continue to prevail through the remainder of the day with highs topping out generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Looking more broadly at the pattern across North America, a pair of sizable cutoff mid-upper lows continue to churn over the southern Canadian Plains and just off the Nova Scotia coast respectively. As these cutoff lows churn away, the pattern remains fairly stagnant overall through the weekend with degrees of mid-upper level ridging around the Great Lakes and more zonal like flow across the middle and southern portions of CONUS. That setup puts the more immediate area at the mercy of various shortwaves moving through the southern stream and/or rounding the base of the Southern Canadian Plains cutoff low. Put another way, the active pattern continues, but with at least moderate uncertainty in details for shower/storm chances over the next few days.

A southern stream shortwave can be discerned on various GOES WV imagery coming onto and working through California. That, and a shortwave and moisture plume rounding the base of the cutoff low will provide the area with our next storm chances, Saturday evening into overnight. Developing surface low over West Texas will drift eastward, but guidance across the board keeps any appreciable low level moist return shunted well south. As shortwaves move into Plains Saturday, afternoon/evening convection over KS/OK likely grows upscale into a primary wind threat. However, given some of the aforementioned, expectation conceptually (and reflected in available guidance) is for strongest convection to dive SE along the expected CAPE gradient. Some more elevated CAPE may be present closer to the area that could yield some showers and/or non-severe thunder.

Into Sunday, much of the day is expected to be on the quieter side, but also starting to set the table for Sunday night into Monday potential. A larger shortwave trough is expected to move through the southern stream on into the Intermountain West Sunday, inducing rigorous Lee Cyclogenesis in/around the CO/OK/TX/NM border areas. With a broad surface high over the Great Lakes, low level flow and general moisture return will be increasing and robust through the day/evening. By the afternoon/early evening, existing expectation is for robust convection over portions of central/northern Kansas within an environment supportive or supercellular activity and upscale growth. Given initiation region, much uncertainty on the severe threat for the western forecast area as it will rely on initial storm locations and how upscale growth evolves and possibly organizes into bowing MCS structures. Suffice it to say that deep layer shear vectors would push this activity toward the area, but also into an area that becomes less supportive thermodynamically as you toward and into Missouri. Then further into the overnight, surface warm front continues to lift northward through the area, and may result in additional elevated convection for portions of N Missouri and NE Kansas. The Day 3 SPC Outlook noses an enhanced risk into western portions of the area as a result.

Monday continues to look like it will carry the potential for a higher end severe weather day. At least when you begin to check the conceptual model boxes. It is of note too though that there is probably at least moderate uncertainty in more precise track and timing of the shortwave trough and surface low. The recent tendency has been to be a bit slower and further W/NW. If this trend continues, it would place the immediate forecast more squarely at risk. Regarding the environment, it all looks quite impressive. Thermodynamically, steep mid level lapse rates overtop rapidly moistening low levels, including depicted Td approaching and into the low 70s, and little to no cap by and after 18z. This has yielded SB/MLCAPE values in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg within deterministic GFS as well as higher res guidance like the RRFS. Wind profiles are prolific with strong deep layer shear values in excess of 50-60kts thanks to an associated jet streak. Model hodographs within the open warm sector tend to be straight-line in nature and elongated. Lift too should be of little question given the approaching shortwave trough and general jet streak position. Again, conceptually this checks the boxes for robust and organized convection that would carry the risk for all hazards. But again, uncertainty remains in final track and timing with any general shifts tending to carry sizable changes to risk within the forecast area. Will refrain from much storm mode discussion but suffice it to say additional uncertainties exist in how rapid upscale growth may be. Day 4 SPC Outlook paints both 15 and 30 percent areas over portions of the CWA, with a focus primarily east of here generally remaining in line with 06z/12z synoptic guidance suites. Would not be shocked further elevated outlooks as we continue to approach this time frame and confidence in details increases.

Sizable northern stream trough tends to continue to churn over central Canada and gradually drift eastward, keeping much of the mid- upper level flow pattern more zonal to NW in nature. Various shortwaves remain depicted within synoptic guidance, providing low confidence potential additional shower/non-severe storm chances at times through the end of next week.

Temperatures throughout the forecast largely on the seasonal to seasonally warm. Highs in the 70s to low 80s predominantly through the weekend, then cooler into next week with forecast highs often in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across the sites through the period. With diurnal mixing today, may see some FEW/SCT020 type decks for a few hours before returning clear. Otherwise, N winds gradually shift clockwise, settling out of the E/ESE much of the overnight and more so the SE by the end of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.