textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and isolated storms currently moving across the region. Low chances (20%) for redevelopment this afternoon for severe storms.

- Prolonged period of hot and humid conditions beset the region with heat indicies routinely in the 105-110F range. Poor heat relief overnight with min temperatures only dropping into the mid 70s. An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for Sunday through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Yesterday's stalled boundary to the south has reversed course and is now moving north as a warm front with a surge of higher dewpoints. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty with how this afternoon's convective threat will play out. The 12Z sounding out of TOP showed that models were really struggling with the low level moisture brought about by both the low stratus and fog. Satellite has shown some clearing over our southwest with some storms moving across our southeast likely along the warm front. Morning ACARS do show some prominent capping in the low levels which may become more pronounced if the low level clouds linger longer.

Over the last several hours a few showers have developed along a CAPE gradient moving into the metro. These showers are not expected to be very impactful and will continue on their northeast trajectory. Additional development behind this initial line of showers still looks low (20% chance) with mid level ridging suppressing much of the activity over the area. Any activity that does manage to develop would find itself in a favorable environment for severe storms. High instability across the region due to the influx of southerly winds and increased dewpoints. Bulk shear is initially lacking to start the afternoon but will increase with the arrival of a shortwave after 4PM. Thereafter we have some higher DCAPE values which may lend itself to some damaging winds should a stronger storm develop. SPC has the region in a marginal risk (1/5) for the severe storm threat today.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 116 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

An omega blocking pattern emerges on Sunday an looks to hold firm through most of next week. A deepening trough over western CONUS with a strong ridge over the Midwest will lead to a heat dome engulfing the region. Strong surface heating will regularly lead to max temperatures in the 90s. The added impact of southerly winds driving dewpoints up will lead to heat indicies in the triple digits. Poor overnight recovery with temperatures only dropping into the mid and upper 70s. Heat risk will routinely be in the major risk for the region on Monday with a few areas in the extreme risk by Tuesday. Due to this prolonged period of heat we have issued an Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday. This may need to be extended all the way through next weekend if the blocking pattern does not budge.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A warm front will continue lifting northward from the I-70 corridor tonight with predominantly VFR conditions. There is a low probability for a shower/storm (20% or less) mainly north/east of KSTJ. Otherwise, the primary concern will be the development of LLWS after 06z through 13z with SSW winds increasing to around 40+ kt near 2kft agl while surface winds will be from the SSE 10-15 kt with locally higher gusts possible. Mixing of the stronger winds will lead to a breezy day on Sunday with sustained southerly winds 10-20 kt and gusts to 30 kt.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday night for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.