textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures expected throughout most, if not all, of the current forecast. - Heat Advisory for much of the area through at least Wednesday - Highs in the mid to upper 90s, possibly touching 100 - Heat index values in the 100 to 105 range - Overnight lows warm in the mid to upper 70s

- Limited precipitation opportunities, mainly skirting far NW and N Missouri at times during the week, including tonight / Monday morning and Wednesday night / Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Little change in the going 7-day forecast for much of the area. The general bullet points remain as noted in the Key Messages ... well above normal temperatures have settled in and will continue throughout the week for most of the area, along with very limited opportunities for relief / deviations from the overall forecast.

Current observations, in-situ and satellite, all depict overall quiet conditions have settled in across the area. This after a few showers and thunderstorms tracked across northern Missouri this morning, admittedly further south than initially forecast. That ultimately kept portions of northern Missouri a bit cooler this morning, but temperatures rapidly rebounded with clear skies and breezy southerly winds. By early to mid-afternoon, temperatures had jumped well into the 90s for many, ranging from upper 90s / near 100 in southern areas of the CW to the low to mid 90s across northern areas. This ultimately, and unfortunately, sets the table for what one can largely expect throughout the work week.

The large scale pattern remains locked in across deterministic and ensemble guidance. This includes a current mid-level / 500mb ridge across the Southern Plains, gradually building into the Lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi River Valley areas. This feature will slowly drift E/ENE through much of the work week. For much of the forecast area this means hot and dry. Far northern areas (NW Missouri and the Iowa-Missouri border areas) tend to find themselves on the far southern edge or periphery of the ring of fire, and could see brief periods of relief from shower/storm or cloud cover should these features track far enough south. Best opportunities there appear to be overnight tonight and again Wednesday night/overnight. Otherwise, highs into the mid-upper 90s can be expected. Best chances for any 100s will be along/near the Missouri River. This is all bolstered by NBM probabilities of 95+ degree highs of 90 percent or greater along and south of Highway 36 through Wednesday. A little bit of good news, or at least not piling on, is that dew points are not expected to be oppressive. This keeps Heat Index values mostly below 105 during this time frame. A little bit of a wild card here too will be just how deep we are able to mix during the day. Suspect dew points may be a bit too moist in current forecast, as tendency is for models to under mix in this type of setup. This would push dew points a bit lower and further keep Heat Index values in check. Additionally, overnight lows may provide limited or no relief with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s expected. Again, bolstered by NBM probabilities of lows >75 degrees often in the 80 to 90 percent or greater range. All of this works to yield the issued Heat Advisory for most of the CWA, let alone wider region. For now, the Heat Advisory goes through Wednesday, but may (likely) need to be extended depending on how everything evolves.

Looking toward the end of the forecast and beyond, various guidance retrogrades and amplifies this feature late week and through next weekend as an Omega Block pattern looks to set up. The item to watch here is just how far west the ridge axis retrogrades. At this time, guidance tends to favor centering it over the Central Plains (Nebraska/Kansas), which may provide an opportunity periods of brief relief from ridge riding/rounding complexes. Northeast portions of the forecast area would be most prone for that relief opportunity.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Breezy VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period. Southerly winds persist through the night with gusts becoming more intermittent through the evening. Gusts return after sunrise tomorrow with winds veering more SW through the daytime hours. Diurnal CU is expected tomorrow afternoon with bases expected to be around 9000ft.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ003>008-012>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon Monday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.