textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through the week, before cooling down by the weekend.

- Chances (15-30%) for rain on Tuesday/Wednesday, with greater chances (50-70%) Wednesday evening across northern MO.

- Wet pattern continues through the remainder of the week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

If you were to look up "boring" in the dictionary, you might see a snapshot of our current synoptic pattern. Amplified mid-level ridging persists over much of the eastern third of the CONUS, which has been gradually battered down by impulses from the north and west over the past couple of days. Broad troughing over the Intermountain West is projected to continue this trend, further pushing the ridge axis off towards the east with its coincident surface high sliding off towards the Ohio River Valley as it traverses the upper flow. Even with this shift in the pattern oncoming, deep south/southwesterly winds will continue to contribute to daytime highs in the high 70s for today.

With the adjustment of the ridge axis off towards the east, the placement of the forecast area under the periphery of the ridge will open us up to greater opportunities for precipitation in the coming days. By Monday evening into Tuesday morning, a shortwave will lift over the Central Plains along the periphery of the ridge, and bring with it a narrow corridor of moisture. This will work to moisten a relatively dry vertical profile, and bring chances (15-30%) of rain. Synoptic ascent doesn't look overly impressive during this timeframe, with the primary shortwave having lifted off further northeast by the time precipitation begins across the area. However, interrogating guidance, it looks like convergence with a quasi- stationary boundary draped behind the lifting surface low collocated with a narrow corridor of vorticity/weak dCVA aloft and weak flow over the boundary in the low-levels will contribute to precipitation chances Tuesday morning. With the location of the boundary remaining just to the northwest of the forecast area, greatest precipitation chances will reside across far eastern KS/western MO during the early half of Tuesday. Greater cloud debris and precipitation potential will mitigate high temperatures for Tuesday, bringing them closer to average at around the low/mid 70s. Another opportunity for precipitation will come late Tuesday night, with a more vigorous shortwave lifting from the Southern Plains across central MO. Precipitation potential looks to be primarily driven by synoptic ascent from dCVA and the LLJ tapping into residual moisture in the low to mid-levels, keeping chances (15-30%) around through Wednesday morning. An enhanced pressure gradient that develops with a strong surface high over the northeastern CONUS and a weak cyclone developing off the lee of the Rockies will bring southerly winds up on Wednesday to ~15-20 mph. With gradual clearing of precipitation, temperatures will rise once again to the mid/high 70s during the day on Wednesday.

By Wednesday evening, yet another opportunity for precipitation arises with a cold frontal boundary draping down across the north- central CONUS. Continued south/southwesterly flow will allow some instability to build out ahead of the front, with shear/lapse rates remaining just marginal enough to lower confidence on greater severe potential with any activity that develops. However, with this kind of signal at this time of year, future forecast iterations will need to monitor trends to see how confidence shifts with severe potential. Precipitation chances remain confined to the location of the boundary through the night, with northern MO seeing the highest chances (50-70%) of precipitation Wednesday evening. Guidance remains in pretty good agreement for precipitation chances continuing through the latter half of the week with continued disturbances in the upper-level flow, which isn't great news for those who prefer treats over tricks... Something to look forward to is temperatures cooling off by the end of the forecast period, with strong warm flow cut off to the south and greater east/southeasterly flow. However, at this point in the forecast, greater deviations in guidance arise with the synoptic pattern. So, as much as cooler temperatures sound great right about now, trends will continue to be monitored in the long term to see if this solution becomes more apparent.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions with southerly surface winds around 5 knots to persist through the period. BKN high clouds overnight becoming SCT/FEW during the day. Cloud cover builds back in from the northwest after 00Z Tuesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.