textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chances (15-25%) of storms in NE MO overnight into tomorrow morning. More substantial rainfall is expected late Friday through Monday.

- A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon/evening with damaging winds the main threat. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flash flooding across NE KS/NW MO where recent heavy rain fall.

- Hot Conditions persist through Saturday before cooler, more seasonable temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Today the local area is under an influence of a upper level ridge centered over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley. This will bring warm temperatures to most of the area south of a weak surface cold front stretched across northern Missouri. South of this front temperatures will achieve the low to mid 90s with heat index values in the 100-105 range. For areas behind the front across the northern CWA temperatures will hold in the low to mid 80s. Tonight, the boundary will become stationary near the Highway 36 corridor as a LLJ gets ramped up and noses into the area. This will bring the chance for a few storms across the north central and northeastern Missouri overnight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, the upper level ridge become amplified over the region as the stationary front lifts north of the area as a warm front. Increased WAA will aid in highs rising into the upper 80s to upper 90s. Heat index values will range from the upper 90s to near 105.

We are looking at the potential for an active weekend ahead. There is increased confidence that the upper-level trough in the Pacific NW will progress southeast Saturday night, beginning to flatten out the ridge of high pressure over the SE CONUS. The exit region of the trough will likely set up over the rockies, favoring the development of a surface low and synoptic cold front at the surface. There is still some uncertainty about where this front will set up Friday night but the current ensemble consensus places the front along NW MO and extending from the CO foothills into central IA. This boundary may coincide with the development of a nocturnal LLJ Friday night. While we are still far enough out that the CAMs can't resolve the entire event Friday night into Saturday, there is a signal for fairly strong CAPE values Friday evening over NW MO. All these mechanisms favor ascent and we could see the potential for severe weather, primarily damaging winds, for northern MO Friday night.

Storms will potentially stick around throughout the weekend as ensemble consensus shows the front stalling out across our CWA as the trough and ridge fight for dominance over our CWA. This setup favors the development of shortwaves that could bring several rounds of showers Saturday and Sunday. A few of the storms on Saturday afternoon/evening may be strong to severe with isolated damaging winds the main threat. Deterministic guidance also has PWAT values near 2.0 inches along the front, which is above average for this time of year and as a result we could see locally heavy rainfall along the front. The air behind the cold front looks to be considerably cooler so we can't rule out the potential for convection and storms on Sunday but we will have a better idea about this potential once we are in range for higher resolution guidance.

On the bright side, there is high confidence that the cold front will move through our area Monday with ensemble guidance (25th-75th percentile) bringing highs down into the 70s for most of the CWA and low 80s for our southern most counties. Guidance also shows the upper-level ridge weakening after the frontal passage resulting in more zonal flow that could keep rain chances around Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR dominates the forecast period, with only a few to scattered high- level clouds expected. Have opted to maintain MVFR at KSTJ from 12- 15z Fri, but confidence is still fairly low in localized fog formation at the terminal. Surface winds appear just elevated enough and low-level saturation looks marginal enough to preclude dense fog; however, KSTJ has a tendency to overperform in these marginal fog environments. Winds across the region become southerly/southwesterly between 7-11kts after 15z Friday as a warm front lifts north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.