textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal expected through the weekend.

- Mainly dry through the weekend with rain returning the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A weak cold front will move through the region today with the only notable effects being a shift of winds from light southwesterly to light northerly and some modest moisture pooling along the boundary as it's sliding south. Otherwise, well above normal temperatures are expected today with highs nearing 15 degrees above normal in our southeastern zones. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, though still much above normal, for Thursday as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region, allowing surface/ low-level flow to become southeasterly. Models are in decent agreement developing precipitation along the nose of developing low-level jet Thursday night. However, the strongest convergence and forcing is north of the area and we'll see little if any chances for precipitation, even in far northern Missouri.

Friday into Saturday, a shortwave trough digs into the Southern Plains and then moves into the Southeast. As it's doing this, it will force what's left of current Tropical Depression 9, away from the local area with little or no impact on our weather. All of this will occur within a broader scale upper ridge migrating across North America, keeping the temperatures much above normal through the weekend and into the first part of next week. It's not until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame that meaningful precipitation chances return to the area, when a weak boundary may slide south into the area. With modest moisture advection into that boundary, there's at least a chance for precipitation.

Looking at the middle to later portions of next week, it currently looks more active. Ensemble 500mb height clusters are showing a mix of a deepening trough over the Southwest and more subtle/weaker troughing developing further south. By Wednesday, this becomes even less distinct as the guidance spread increases. But a deepening trough in the Southwest would be a more favorable pattern for our area for precipitation, as it would tend to draw moisture northward and eject embedded shortwave into the Plains. There is considerable uncertainty with this still so things will change inevitably between now and next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. A weak front will move through eastern KS and western MO this morning, with winds shifting from variable at 5-7kts to northerly at 5-8kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.