textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable Temperatures to Slightly Above Average This Week

- Periodic Showers/Storm Chances, No Notable Severe Threat

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A closed-low system is present over the Pacific Coast with another troughing pattern over the New England Region. A modest mid-level ridge axis is currently over the area and has resulted in a surface high pressure over the middle Mississippi River Valley. Moisture transport has remained in place across the region, maintaining dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s across much of the area. With daytime heating, a notable cumulus field has developed. So far in the forecast area, no showers have occurred. A weak mid-level vort maxima has moved across parts of southern Missouri that did produce some light rain earlier today. Through the evening hours, this weak lift will shift northward, and may eventually clip far southwestern zones this evening.

The mid-level vort max will continue shifting northward Thursday morning, increasing cloud cover across the region, as well as gradually pushing shower activity further into the area, covering about the southwestern third of the forecast area. A few rumbles of thunder are possible, but overall flow remains weak and therefore does not provide much in the way shear for storms to organize if they develop. This trend continues into Friday, but Friday will feature surface pressure falls associated with an eastward propagation of the Pacific Coast system. This is expected to push shower activity across the bulk of the forecast area on Friday, with GEFS and other ensemble suites showing at least 70 percent probabilities if not higher for measurable rainfall. Friday may feature higher CAPE values especially in the afternoon from eastern Kansas into Western Missouri, which will likely provide scattered thunderstorms. The deep layer shear environment looks to remain weak though, which limits the potential for storm activity to organize and become severe.

Through the weekend, mid and upper-level flow remains in an omega block pattern, though the western low will continue to send several short-wave perturbations eastward that will present multiple opportunities for shower activity. While plenty of moisture and instability will be around, the stronger mid and upper-level flow still remains progged to stay outside of the forecast area, and therefore expectations for severe potential remain very low heading through the weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast grows beyond the weekend, as this will largely depend on if something can breakdown the omega block pattern, or if this remains in place for longer than currently progged. Forecast spread is fairly large due to differences in how the break down of the blocking pattern occurs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 601 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Slowly evoloving pattern will result in easterly winds remaining through the period. COuld see isolated-scattered showers develop after 18Z Thursday, largely south of I-70. Included prob30 at IXD, but confidence is not high enough to include MKC and MCI.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.