textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today behind a cold front with temperatures warming Monday and Tuesday.

- Chance (15-25%) for showers and storms Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Record high temperatures are possible on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Current 500-hPa analysis shows ridging over the western CONUS and troughing over the eastern CONUS continuing the northwest flow pattern over the Central Plains. A subtle shortwave is propagating through the troughing pattern over the Central Plains and is helping to produce a few isolated high based showers over the CWA. A modest dry layer in the low-levels is making it difficult for any precipitation to reach the ground, so have capped the chances for precipitation at just a few sprinkles through the early morning hours.

A cold front passed through the area from north to south yesterday leaving northerly winds in its wake. The CAA behind the front will allow temperatures to fall into the low-to-mid 50s early this morning. The shortwave passing to the south of the area will help keep a mid-level cloud deck in place across central and southern MO through the day while northern MO will see clear skies today. This will allow temperatures across northern MO to be a couple degrees warmer (highs in the lower 70s) than further south where the lack of solar heating will keep highs in the upper 60s.

The shortwave will clear the area by Sunday evening and large scale subsidence on the back side will allow skies to clear areawide. Surface high pressure then builds in over the Great Lakes and winds turn southerly on Monday bringing the above normal temperatures back to the area through the early portions of the week. Highs on Monday are expected to be in the mid-to- upper 70s with areas on the western periphery of the CWA pushing towards 80F before temperatures climb into the low-to-mid 80s on Tuesday.

Tuesday also brings the next chance for showers and storms as another shortwave propagates through the large scale pattern. The shortwave is progged to cross the Canadian Rockies Monday night into Tuesday, inciting surface cyclogenesis in southern Alberta. This system will primarily stay north of the CWA, however, the cold front will cross the area on Tuesday as the low tracks over the Great Lakes. Model guidance depicts some instability developing ahead of the front in the afternoon, but just how much depends on which model/ensemble you choose to look at. The GFS/GEFS is by far the most aggressive with 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE present through the mid/late afternoon while the ECMWF/European ensemble and the Canadian show 500-1000 J/kg over the same timeframe. Despite the discrepancies in instability, all guidance is pointing to 35-45 kts of deep layer shear, which will allow for any storms that are able to initiate to be able to become well organized. Currently have low-end chances (15-25%) for precipitation in the forecast given the overall uncertainty surrounding this system. However, given current model guidance, this seems like a favorable setup for storms to form either ahead of or along the front Tuesday afternoon/evening and is a day that is worth monitoring over the coming forecast cycles. This thinking is reflected in the SPC Day 3 outlook, which has the southern portion of the CWA in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather.

Behind the cold front, northerly winds will persist through Wednesday bringing high temperatures down a few degrees from Tuesday with highs expected to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The upper pattern is progged to begin to break down towards the end of the week with the western CONUS ridge flattening out and broad zonal flow becoming dominant. The flattening of the ridge will lead to mid-level height rises over the Central Plains, which combined with southerly flow due to surface high pressure to the east will potentially push temperatures into the 90s Friday through the weekend. However, some uncertainty surrounds this as well.

The current forecast calls for highs on Friday to be in the low-to-mid 90s with KMCI and KSTJ being forecast to be 2 degrees above their record highs (91F in 1941 and 92F in 2017 respectively). However, model guidance depicts several shortwaves moving through the zonal pattern, which could bring precipitation (currently have a 30-40% chance Friday evening) and cooler temperatures into play. The NBM shows a 50-70% chance of exceeding 90F on Friday with the 25th and 75th percentiles being 90F and 97F respectively. However, the LREF only shows a 20-30% chance of cracking 90F with the 25th and 75th percentiles being 82F and 90F. All of this is just to say that there is still substantial uncertainty in the late week and weekend forecast and to stay tuned for future updates, which will provide more clarity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions expected at all four terminals through the TAF period. Mid-level cloud deck should scatter out through the morning, however a high-level cloud deck will remain. High clouds will exit by early evening. Northerly winds will shift to southerly this evening. The flip will be fairly slow to occur, which has led to VRB winds for several hours at each terminal.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.