textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant fall conditions continue. Highs remain around seasonal normals.

- Rain chances return Friday continuing through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Pleasant fall weather continues today with highs anticipated in the mid to upper 70s for most. A building ridge gradually clears out cloud cover resulting in relatively quiet looking skies. However, satellite imagery combined with 500mb upper air analysis paints a rather chaotic picture. The defining features are a pair of high pressure systems, one over the Great Lakes, and a second along the Gulf Coast. General troughing dominates the western CONUS. Analysis depicts a large trough off Baja California coupled with a notable shortwave across the northern Rockies. The interactions between these pressure systems have been the main focus of the weather over the past several days. The Gulf Coast high is building northward across the central Plains bringing more stable air across the area. This manifests as clearing clouds and increasing sunshine. RAP analysis suggests a small low compressed in the 500mb flow between the two highs which appears to create a small Rex block across the Ohio River Valley. This would be a small hiccup that temporarily slows the flow across the continent. Surface winds remain generally from the east maintaining the flow of cooler and drier air across the area keeping pleasant fall conditions around through Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

As we get into Friday and the weekend, the area will start to see influence from the ongoing ridge pattern interacting with an omega block. The omega block is formed due to a high pressure system over the Great Lakes, along with low pressure in New England and the Pacific Northwest. The interaction of these two synoptic features will direct shortwaves over our region acting as our source of lift, which will lead to a cloudy, rainy, and gloomy weekend. The surface response to the ridging features will cause a sharp temperature gradient over the area, with mid 80s to our south, and mid to upper 60s to our north. Additionally, high pressure near the Gulf Coast will advect a fetch of moisture across the Gulf, and into areas across the Great Plains. Chances of precipitation are expected starting Friday morning, with highest likelihood and amounts in our northwestern counties. Progression of the shortwave eastward will move precipitation chances across the entire area throughout the whole day Saturday. Seasonable temperatures and persistent cloud cover significantly reduce instability, and limit severe weather chances. However, higher PWAT values of 1.5"-1.75" indicate that heavy downpours will be possible. Rain and cloud cover are expected to diminish Sunday afternoon through Sunday night as the system continues to progress.

As the shortwave moves out of the area Monday, the mid level ridge remains over the area. There is still uncertainty about how high temperatures may get. If the omega block holds onto its strength, temperatures will remain seasonable, as it would stifle warm air advection. On the other side, if the omega block weakens, this would allow a warmer air mass to move farther northward into our area, bringing temperatures into the mid 80s. Ensembles have been leaning toward the omega block breaking down and moving out of the region, making way for another disturbance from the Pacific coast. This system would come through the area Tuesday, bringing increased chances of rain, and cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Cloud bases continue around 2000ft, but coverage is expected to open as the afternoon continues. Winds remain generally light out of the east. There are marginal concerns for VIS impacts from BR/FG near sunrise Thursday; however, winds are likely to curtail BR/FG development. STJ is the most likely for some minor VIS impacts. After sunrise CIGs remain BKN gradually opening not much different than today.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.