textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with near to/above normal temperatures expected the next 7 days with no hazardous weather expected.

- Warming trend anticipated for the start of next week.

- Precip chances arrive next Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Happy New Year! 2026 will come in like a lamb, with dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures at least for the first week of the year. A weak back door cold front has sunk through the CWA overnight bringing some modest cold air advection and a stratus deck. High pressure is expected to move into the area today providing weak mixing. There is also some concern that the stratus deck may limit heating today however, models at this time suggest the low stratus will sink south of the area and highs will reach the mid 30s (north) to the mid to upper 40 (southwest). Tomorrow the area will be wedge between a storm system with an associated surface low to the south and a surface ridge of high pressure to the north. This will leave the local area under easterly surface flow which will hold highs again in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Friday into Saturday a upper level ridge of high pressure will shift eastward from the western Rockies into the eastern Rockies. This will provide height rises across the area however weak mixing due to surface high pressure residing over the area will keep highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Sunday, the upper level ridge over the eastern Rockies moves into the western Plains providing additional height rises across the local area. In addition, the surface ridge of high pressure slides east of the area and WAA gets underway. This will allow highs to rise into the 40s to lower 50s.

Above normal temperatures will begin the first week of the new year as the axis of the upper level ridge of high pressure moves over the area. This coupled with continued WAA will move highs well above normal into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Tuesday, an upper level shortwave will move through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest acting to flatten the upper ridge and force a weak cold front through the area. However, with a lack of cold air behind the front, highs will still range into the mid 50s to mid 60s. By Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal. Weak mixing courtesy of surface high pressure will cool temperatures a few degrees into the upper 40s to near 60. Also, on Wednesday, a upper level trough will move onshore in the southwestern CONUS. This feature will quickly move through the southern Rockies into the Central Plains by Thursday and may provide the next chance for precipitation to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Satellite trends are indicating this stratus deck will be around for the most of the day. An improvement to lower MVFR is possible for a few hours, but expecting ceilings to lower back to IFR overnight again.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.