textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms likely this afternoon/early evening, including low-end potential for a few strong to severe storms. - Strong/damaging winds the main concern - A brief tornado cannot be ruled out

* Additional (light) precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday, including rain-snow mix - 30-40% chances for any precipitation - Best chances near/north of line from KC Metro to Kirksville

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

As of early this afternoon, much of the area has received plentiful rainfall courtesy of widespread morning rain. Areas in eastern KS received over 1" of rain, with many other locations in the CWA receiving near 0.75". A dry slot began to push into the area late this morning, allowing for breaks in cloud cover to become prevalent, particularly south and west of the metro. Temperatures and dewpoints currently sit in the upper 50s and low 60s, helping set the stage for potential strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Rapid cumulus development has been observed in the warm sector early this afternoon and such development is expected to produce low- top supercells in the CWA over the coming hours.

Convection is being supported by a >120kt upper-level jet stretching into the open warm sector. In terms of instability, hi-res models currently indicate MLCAPE in eastern KS and western MO in the range of 200-400 J/kg through this afternoon with modest mid-level lapse rates and steeper low-level lapse rates. This instability is anticipated to push northeastward over the course of the afternoon. Shear is also rather impressive, with 0-6km bulk shear in excess of 50kts across the region. Damaging straight-line winds and downdrafts are the greatest threat associated with any PM storms; recent mesoanalysis indicates DCAPE in the range of 400-500 J/kg. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out due to the potential for some rotating updrafts with SRH > 200 m2/s2. Storm threat will diminish with the passage of the cold front later this evening. Storms will be pacy due to strong winds aloft, and are anticipated to have NE motion at >50-55 mph.

With the frontal passage, daily high temperatures will cool to seasonal expectations Friday and through the weekend. Precipitation chances will return tomorrow evening, though probabilities are not particularly high (25-40% any p-type). Models have shifted precipitation chances further south, but probabilities have decreased as shortwave strength is anticipated to be shorter than previously forecast. A rain-snow mix is likely, but the transition to snow will occur late in the precipitation event, and such a transition is not expected to occur south of the I-70 corridor. Snow is unlikely to accumulate even if it occurs thanks to rain.

The RRFS is hinting at a possible snow squall on Saturday afternoon. However, uncertainty remains exceptionally high. Moisture is severely limited, so this is not currently included in the forecast but will continue to be monitored during future shifts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Quite a messy TAF period on deck... scattered weak convective activity is beginning to move in/toward the metro sites from the SW. While there have been isolated lightning, opted to start VCSH to try and better discern the more robust VCTS/TS potential later today. Conditions quickly degrade toward IFR this morning, but with "waves" of showers have tried to signal that with prevailing MVFR and TEMPO IFR into the early afternoon. Dry slot moves in this afternoon and should lift ceilings some to borderline VFR. In conjunction, there looks to be additional scattered thunderstorm activity either out ahead of and/or along approaching cold front. Did opt for VCTS as there is enough confidence in activity near the sites. Precipitation winds down by around 00z, but MVFR/IFR ceilings to move back in behind cold frontal passage.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.