textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storms possible tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Another round of showers/storms possible Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few storms may be strong, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall also possible.

- Temperatures warm Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Current H5 analysis shows mid/upper troughing across the Northern Plains and encroaching on the Upper Midwest, with a band of 40+ knot H5 winds extending from northern Colorado into NE Minnesota and western Ontario. At the surface, a cold front is analyzed northeast to southwest through Iowa, into extreme SE Nebraska and further into SW Kansas, where a weak surface cyclone has developed. At this time, showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing, primarily north of the cold front (elevated), across portions of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. Meanwhile, south of the front across our CWA, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s as of 2 PM, with afternoon Max Ts expected to reach the lower to even mid 90s (south of the KC metro) by later this afternoon. The front is likely to stall out and become essentially stationary by later this afternoon/evening across NW Missouri into NE Kansas. While stronger mid level flow and better forcing for ascent should remain north of the front, cannot completely rule out a strong thunderstorm or two late afternoon into early evening toward the Iowa border thanks to a moderately unstable air mass in place along and south of the front, which has prompted SPC to include northern Missouri within a marginal risk for severe storms. However, CAM guidance has trended toward keeping convection primarily north of the Iowa border. By late tonight into the overnight period. a vort max currently over Colorado, pushes eastward toward our region, and along with a modest low level jet, should help develop showers and thunderstorms north of the front across SE Nebraska into SW Iowa. Once again, most of this activity should remain north of our CWA, but may sneak southward into northern Missouri.

As we head into tomorrow, another mid level vort maxima moves into the region as broad mid/upper troughing across the north central CONUS digs a little further south into the region, with the stalled front still in place across the CWA, which should help generate isolated to scattered showers and storms tomorrow morning into early afternoon, with another round of convection possible late tomorrow evening into early Thursday morning. With dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s, decent mid level flow allowing for 30 to 35 knots of effective shear, and 1500 to 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE, a few storms could be strong to severe. Additionally, with PWATs in the 1.8" to 2" range and deep warm cloud depths, locally moderate to heavy rainfall may be possible. There will be yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Friday morning.

By Friday and into the weekend, the western ridge re-establishes itself, with a 597 dam H5 high developing over the Four Corners region, yielding increasing mid level heights over our CWA. Afternoon highs should return to the 90s across the CWA for Saturday and Sunday, with max heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to the mid 100s, with generally dry weather likely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conds are expected with bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds btn 10-15kft expected thru 23z-01z. The exception will be fm 18Z-22Z when a pd of lgt tsra will be poss at the TAF sites. There will be the potential for another round of storms at the TAF sites aft 23Z-01Z where cigs with be ovc btn 3-5kft and vis may be reduced to 5-6SM in heavier showers. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the ESE/SE (except STJ which will be out of the NE) btn 5-10kts thru 09Z-11Z aft which they will be lgt and vrb. Late in the TAF pd winds will become NE btn 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.