textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler than normal conditions continue today into Saturday. Cold front moving through the region this afternoon may lead to light showers/sprinkles.

- Cooler conditions tonight are expected to lead to frost across areas north of the Missouri River. Frost advisory is in effect.

- Unsettled pattern returns to the region Sunday night through Wednesday. Periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. A few storms on both Sunday night and Monday night may be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Cyclonic flow dominates across the Upper Midwest as shortwaves rotate around Hudson Bay trough. Another shortwave building into the Dakotas this morning will bring another afternoon cold front to the region. While low level moisture is limited, expect cumulus to develop once again through the afternoon hours and could see some very light rain or sprinkles across the region. Instability is limited to around 100 J/kg, but steep low level lapse rates may be sufficient for light showers in the vicinity of the front building south through the region. Rainfall amounts should be extremely light with any activity given transient nature.

Skies are expected to clear and with winds becoming light expect temperatures to cool into the 30s F Saturday morning. Have coordinated a frost advisory for most locations north of the Missouri River Saturday morning, with the exception of the KC Metro where the urban heat island may keep lows slightly warmer and across central Missouri where temperatures are expected to remain slightly warmer. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal on Saturday with northerly flow remaining, but warm above seasonal levels Sunday as the ridge axis shifts east and low level winds increase out of the southwest. Depending on how much moisture return we see on Sunday, we could see thunderstorms return to the region Sunday evening as area is on the northern fringes of low level jet developing across the southern plains. Atmosphere looks to remain largely capped throughout the day, with 1000-1500 J/kg of CAP developing. As low level flow increases to near 40 knots, 0-6 km bulk shear also climbs towards 40 knots. Agree with SPC's assessment to outlook portions of central Missouri in day 3 marginal outlook largely for the potential of damaging straight line winds or large hail.

A series of shortwaves embedded in zonal flow will create an unsettled weather pattern across the region Monday through Wednesday. With ample heating on Monday, could once again see CAPE values approach 1500 J/kg with bulk shear values of 30-35 knots.

Cooler conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday behind a cold front that will knock 850 hpa temperatures back nearly 10 C.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Quiet VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail across the sites. Today, KSTJ will be the windiest of the sites with NW winds gusting into the lower 20s kts at times before subsiding this evening. Overall, light to variable winds will prevail overnight and through much of the remainder of the current TAF period. Skies largely remain clear with any FEW/SCT bases generally >7kft and most common to the east of the sites. Any chances for light rain or sprinkles look to remain displaced both east and west of the sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>024-030-031. KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.