textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain to gradually taper off over the next several hours.

* Marginal risk of severe storms in the far southern and southeastern portions of the CWA this afternoon. The strongest storms could produce hail and severe wind gusts.

* Warm on Saturday before chance (30-40%) of rain in the evening and overnight into Sunday.

* Cooler temperatures Sunday before a warming trend heading into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Intermittent light rain has been noted across the area this morning and early afternoon, particularly along and north of US-36. ACARS soundings from KMCI continue to depict a modest layer of dry air near the surface; this has been largely responsible for the limited amount of rain actually able to reach the surface. As of 18Z, several stations have reported only a trace of rainfall, including KSTJ which had several pockets of 25-35 dBZ reflectivities move over the airport. These showers continue to be compressed southward ahead of a weak cold front.

Recent mesoanalysis has indicated increasing low-level moisture south of I-70 within the last several hours. This trend is expected to continue through much of the afternoon courtesy of southwest surface and low-level flow drawing in Gulf moisture. With the introduction of additional moisture has come increased instability Between 16Z and 19Z, around 400-600 J/kg of SBCAPE had been advected into eastern Kansas and western Missouri south of I-70. This destabilization trend has generally met expectations, with model analysis suggesting a nearly 100% chance of >500 J/kg SBCAPE by 18Z in our far southeastern KS counties and southern MO counties. Indeed, it does appear that there is at least slight instability present in the southern portions of our CWA with some potential (50- 80%) to become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon.

Storms are expected to develop within the next few hours across southern portions of the CWA, taking advantage of the greater instability and ~45 kts of effective bulk shear. For reasons such as these, far southern and southeastern portions of the CWA have been included in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. The strongest storms could produce hail and severe wind gusts. Overall, however, the severe threat remains low. Guidance has consistently indicated upscale growth should occur quickly after initiation as the cold front nears. Storms ahead of the front are expected to fully exit the southeastern portion of our CWA by 9PM. Some CAMs have resolved post-frontal convection, perhaps by tapping into lingering instability. Confidence in this potential, however, is quite low. While some instability may remain, inhibition will increase dramatically in the wake of the front, reducing the ability for storms to fire. If post-frontal convection occurs, it would likely be elevated in nature and struggle to become strong/severe.

Behind the front, overnight lows will drop into the mid/low 50s with roughly a 40% chance of falling into the upper 40s in northern Missouri. Westerly/southwesterly surface flow will also quickly return behind the front as low level high pressure builds to our southwest and low pressure nears from the northwest. It was a nice try, Cold Front, but this pattern will provide plentiful warmth and sunshine for much of the day on Saturday with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and even low 80s. But alas! Cold Front makes a return Saturday evening, this time with a more lasting impact. A shortwave aloft will provide some lift ahead of the front, but with very little instability and dry low-level air for much of the day, it is unlikely to amount to much more than some rain showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder. The vast majority of the area will have a 30-40% chance of precipitation at any given time between Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, with probabilities decreasing from the north as the front progresses south. This time, Cold Front makes its mark, leaving us with Sunday maximum temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The foreseeable future continues to be dominated by an upper-level ridging pattern. There is potential for another cold front to move through on Tuesday. Given the relatively slow moving nature of this boundary, there should not be much of an impact on Tuesday outside of some low-end (15-20%) rain chances in our far northeastern counties. Instead, widespread cooler temperatures (albeit only ~5 degrees cooler) will take hold on Wednesday with prevailing northerly surface flow. On Thursday, surface winds will shift out of the south/southeast, once again increasing temperatures. In fact, there is roughly a 30-50% chance of reaching 90F on Friday, mainly in the western portions of the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd as clr skies are expected thru 14Z-15Z aft which incr high clouds area expected. Aft 00Z-02Z ovc mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst to impact the terminals. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the SW btn 5-10kts. Aft 14Z-15Z wind will incr to around 10kts (at STJ winds will incr to nr 15kts with gusts 20-25kts) while remaining out of the SW/WSW. Aft 21Z-22Z...winds will shift to the west btn 5-10kts as a cold front moves thru the TAF sites. Aft 01Z-02Z winds will shift to the north and remain btn 5-10kts. The main concern for aviators will be the potential for showers and thunderstorms at the TAF sites aft 00Z however, at this time the chc are too low for a prob30 grp.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.