textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional Showers This Morning

- Elevated Fire Weather Concerns Thursday

- Next Precipitation System Sunday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Surface low and surface cold front has pushed into eastern Missouri early this morning, forcing the heavier precipitation activity out of the forecast area. There is still an H5 short-wave dropping a mid- level vort max into Iowa and another mid-level vort max moving through eastern Oklahoma that will provide a few more hours of H5 height falls through the morning. There is a second surface low pressure system over the southern Plains that should miss the area but will slow the rate of the surface anticyclone over the Northern Plains. Further, the northern H5 short-wave will push secondary 850- 700mb cold front further southward that is expected to generate additional shower activity through the morning hours of Wednesday. Most of the instability is gone, limiting thunder potential with these shower and therefore no severe threat. Strong jet should keep any additional activity this morning fairly progressive, and therefore not expecting any rain rates that could present flooding. We will need to monitor a few of the fast responding creeks/streams in the immediate KC metro through this morning. Surface pressure rises will start by the early afternoon across the area, providing enough subsidence to end any shower activity, or push it eastward out of the forecast area. Skies behind the secondary 850-700mb cold front should clear this afternoon, allowing for a few hours of warming, bumping temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

The surface anticyclone gets pushed southward Thursday morning as another H5 trough digs southward from Canada, and another area of strong H5 CVA over the Northern Rockies generates a stronger cyclone into the northern High Plains. This creates west-southwesterly flow in lower portions of the troposphere on Thursday. While the nose of WAA may not quite reach our area, with temperatures only in the mid to upper 50s, drier air will arrive. Stronger pressure gradient will result in breezy winds, and clear skies will promote mixing through the afternoon that could generate wind gusts of 30-35 MPH. This may bring relative humidity values down to around 30 percent Thursday afternoon, which will create elevated fire weather concerns. Right now the forecast is not quite at Red Flag criteria, but over the Central Plains Nebraska and Kansas, conditions may be more primed for fire weather related issues. For now, have not issued any headline products, but a fire weather related headline may potentially be needed for Thursday in far northwestern Missouri and far northeastern Kansas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Friday, the strong jet streak and CVA resulting in a deepening H5 trough and strong cyclone that moves toward the Great Lakes Region. While cyclone stays well northeast of the forecast area, this will drag a cold front across the region that will keep temperatures in the lower 50s on Friday afternoon and lows in the mid 30s early Saturday morning. There is very little in the way of moisture content currently progged with this system ahead of the cold front, therefore the forecast remains dry.

Saturday afternoon, another strong vort maxima helps to promote the development of a Lee Cyclone that will turn low-level southerly across the Plains and lower Missouri River Valley. This push of WAA will send temperatures back into the upper 60s and perhaps lower 70s Saturday afternoon. Moisture transport should increase at some point Saturday, eventually increasing the cloud cover. The main cyclone then moves eastward as the area of enhanced H5 flow moves across the Central CONUS and will provide our next chance for precipitation on Sunday. Most of the event will be rainfall with temperatures remaining warm enough. If there is any moisture that lingers on the backside of the associated cold front late Sunday, there are some ensemble members that hint at a rain-snow mix. However, accumulations of any winter precipitation type are very minimal, and if we realize temperatures in the 60s or even 70s on Saturday, would be very quick to melt. Strong northwesterly flow sets up across the region to start of the next work weeks, which will keep temperatures on the cooler side.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Shower activity will continue through much of the overnight. Thunder should end in the next couple of hours. Ceilings may dip down into MVFR for a few hours. Wind shift northwesterly behind the front.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.