textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Line of showers and storms to move through the region overnight/early Sunday morning. - Best chances (50-70%) along and north of I-70.

- Locally heavy rainfall is the primary hazard, with low-end potential for damaging winds and hail.

* Showers and storms possible again Sunday. A conditional severe threat exists, mainly in the vicinity of and south/southeast of the Kansas City metro.

* Hot and humid through Monday, with heat indices expected to reach the 90s south of US-36.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Short-term guidance has continued to struggle to resolve convection off to the west this evening, leading to ample uncertainty regarding how the forecast will evolve over the next 24 hours. Within the several hours, storms across eastern Kansas have fallen comfortably below severe limits, and this is expected to remain an appropriate descriptor for most as these storms move through the area overnight. An isolated severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out due to lingering elevated instability, but the primary threat with overnight convection will be locally heavy rainfall. Mean winds between 15-20 kts, PWATs near or in excess of 1.6", and model QPF output approaching FFG has reinforced flooding concerns as we head into the overnight hours tonight.

The remainder of Sunday is murky at best. By mid/late afternoon, a high CAPE environment is expected to develop. Coupled with improved 0-6 km bulk shear, conditions do look to be conducive for organized storm development and maintenance. How this environment is realized remains the question. There are several scenarios that could unfold, whether it be just one or potentially a combination of multiple. First, behind the overnight band of showers/storms, some CAMs depict an additional complex of storms moving into northeastern MO, continuing southeastward through the morning and early afternoon hours. As it does so, it could encounter the area of increased instability and shear which may open the door for more organized updrafts within the cluster. Another solution for late morning/early afternoon excludes this complex of storms entirely, instead opting for convective initiation near a weak surface warm front allowing for some erosion of the cap and promoting initiation by mid- afternoon along the I-70 corridor. A third scenario involves storms forming right along the MO/KS border in the evening. That all said, confidence in any one scenario is low with substantial uncertainty surrounding the mode(s) of ascent, which could be anything from the previously mentioned warm front to a outflow boundary from overnight convection or even a subtle shortwave...none of which seem to be particularly well highlighted in the high-resolution guidance. Still, there is a clear, but very conditional, threat for severe weather on Sunday. If storms are able to fire, then all hazards would be on the table.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A complicated forecast is in store for the TAF period. Currently, broken bands of elevated thunderstorms are moving across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with additional opportunities for scattered storms through the rest of the morning. Generally speaking, confidence in timing and spatial extent of thunderstorms has been severely limited. As such, outside of a TEMPO from 06Z to 07Z and a PROB30 between 11Z and 13Z, TSRA is not mentioned in the TAFs. CIGs are expected to drop to MVFR mid-morning before rising to VFR again early in the afternoon. Isolated storms are possible in the afternoon and evening, but uncertainty is too high to be included in any TAFs at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.