textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance (10-20%) for showers/storms this evening/overnight. Primary hazards with stronger storms would be damaging winds, with heavy rainfall and lightning otherwise.

- Continued low chances (10-20%) for subsevere showers/storms tomorrow afternoon. Weather dries out through the remainder of the week.

- Temperatures briefly cool tomorrow, before rising through the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Cloud debris from morning/afternoon convection continues to cover the forecast area, helping to mitigate daytime heating and slightly temper high temperatures during the day. Convective activity ongoing over central Kansas is being invigorated by a shortwave trough traversing the periphery of the upper-level ridge still parked over the southwestern CONUS. CAMs have this activity progressing towards the southeast through the next few hours, gradually weakening over time. Greater consensus is that this activity will entirely avoid our forecast area, but there are some models that hint that we may see weakening showers/storms traversing generally south of I-70 during the late evening. However, overall, CAMs have become increasingly more pessimistic on the potential for activity going into the overnight period. While there is still ample elevated instability over our forecast area, shear is not robust enough to increase confidence in sustained, organized convection through the overnight period. Additionally, with greater capping during the overnight and a lack of substantial forcing in the synoptic and mesoscale to invigorate new convection, there is increasing confidence in lower chances for precipitation (10-20%) overnight into tomorrow morning. If chances exist, they would be co-located with weakening storms traversing eastward, generally east of I-35 and south of I-70.

An upper-level trough presently over the northern Plains will continue digging southeast towards the Great Lakes, with its associated cold front presently over the Dakotas sagging southward during the day tomorrow. While guidance indicates that storms may form along this boundary as it progresses southward, the likelier area of development will remain towards the south and east of the forecast area, with elevated instability beyond a significantly capped environment appearing to inhibit convective development during the morning and early afternoon. If convection is able to develop, it will develop later in the day, with areas south of I-70 having greater chances (10-20%) of seeing subsevere showers/storms as the cold front progresses. In the wake of the cold front, temperatures and dewpoints will fall by a handful of degrees, maintaining seasonable temperatures.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 348 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

As the shortwave trough over the Great Lakes lifts off towards the northeast, another trough over the Pacific Northwest will help place the axis of the upper-level ridge over our forecast area. The periphery of the upper-level ridge, seeing some deamplification from the shortwaves passing to the north, will remain north of the forecast area, keeping PoPs low through the remainder of the week. By the weekend, with greater southerly flow on the western edge of surface high pressure, coupled with enhanced WAA from southwesterly flow aloft, heat and humidity look to rise enough to have heat indices break the triple digits south of the US-50 corridor. However, overall chances for this happening remain lower (15-20%), so future forecasts will have to monitor this trend to see if it maintains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Most of the rain activity is expected to remain west of the area, though far northwest Missouri may see some isolated rain activity. Will watch for fog potential overnight, but winds around 4-5 kts should help to limit it.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.