textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until at least Wednesday evening for central Missouri.

* Overnight storm chances: There is a 10-30% chance of overnight showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest likilihood across northeast KS into northern Missouri.

* Rain chances increase late week as a stationary boundary across central Iowa sags south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Broad upper ridge remains across the southern US. Closer to the surface, a 30-40 knot low level jet remains from eastern TX into central Indiana. This low level jet has prevented the atmosphere from cooling supstantially, and fueled storms across the region. These storms are handled relatively poorly by various models, but have begun to be recognized by the HRRR/RAP over the last few hours. Expect the threat elevated convection to remain through the mid morning hours but expect an overall weakening trend as the morning goes on. There is a shortwave across south central Nebraska as of 08Z, and with ample mid level moisture, could see a renewed threat of elevated showers/thunderstorms across northern Missouri mid-day. With the expected cloud cover and showers, expect high temperatures to be moderated a bit. Considered a heat advisory along and south of I-70 (north of the excessive heat warning), but with impacts of cloud cover and showers, opted to just stick with the excessive heat warning across central MO.

CAMs suggest convection redeveloping across the High Plains late this afternoon, pushing east/southeast tonight on the leading edge of the thermal ridge. With this activitiy once again building into a stregthening 40-50 knot low level jet, could see these storms last longer than CAMs suggest leading to another night of potential scattered storms.

Clearing skies through the day is once again expected to lead to anoother mild day with highs in the mid and upper 90s with heat indices of 105-110 F degrees. Will need to once again consider a heat advisory for Tuesday depending on potential clearing.

Stationary front across Central Iowa along I-80 may try to work south as low pressure develops in western KS and gradually pushes east. South of the front, warm and humid conditions are expected to continue, so location of the front will be key. Low level jet south of the boundary will likely fuel nocturnal thunderstorms on the north side of boundary Wednesday night. Additional ridge riding shortwaves are expected through the late week into the weekend leading for additional periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Showers across the region are expected to weaken and push southeast; however, additional elevated showers are possible along and north of highway 36 after 15Z. Gusty southwest winds are expected from 15Z- the evening hours. Low level jet stregthens across the region after sunset tonight creating the potential for low level wind shear.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.