textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures continue Tuesday, with a 50-70% chance of high temperatures over 60 degrees across the KC metro.

- A cold front passage will bring a slight chance (15-30%) of rain Tuesday night. The greater rain chances will be south of US 50.

- Temperatures will return to near normal values Wednesday through Thursday as a couple of dry cold fronts pass through the area.

- An Arctic cold front will bring a slight chance (15-25%) of snow showers to northeast MO Friday and Saturday as well as much colder temperatures. There is a 10-40% of subzero wind chills Saturday and a 30-80% chance on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mild and quiet weather will continue into Tuesday. The forecast area remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the southeast CONUS, which will bring warm and dry southwest surface flow. Aloft, NW H5 flow will persist as the area remains wedged between stout ridging over the West Coast and troughing over eastern Canada. High temperatures on Tuesday will again climb about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Across the KC Metro, NBM ensemble data gives a 50-70% of high temperature exceeding 60 degrees!

The first in a series of three cold fronts will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. While there will be low-level dry to limit rainfall amounts, there will still be a 15-30% chance of light rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Low-level moisture will be a bit higher south of US 50, and this is where PoPs will be relatively higher. Temperatures will cool back to normal values Wednesday into Thursday behind the cold front's passage.

The second cold front will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning. The better forcing and moisture with this feature will stay to the northeast, so only expecting a small chance (15-25%) of snow showers or flurries in far north and northeast MO. Right on the heels of this second front, a powerful Arctic cold front will pass through the region Friday afternoon and night. Again, there will be 15-25% of snow showers across far N and NE MO, but no accumulation is expected at this time.

Bitter cold will follow the passage of the Arctic cold front. Temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around the 5th to 10th percentiles this weekend, resulting in high temperatures ranging from the middle 20s to middle 30s and low temperatures in the upper single digits and lower teens from east to west, respectively. Combined with blustery W-NW winds, there will be a 10-40% of subzero wind chills Saturday and a 30-80% chance on Sunday, with the greatest chances N and NE MO.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period. High clouds proceed through the area overnight. Winds increase in speed after sunrise and gradually shift from SW to WNW through. A frontal passage in the afternoon may introduce some isolated gusts and chances for -RA; however, confidence in those -RA chances are low at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.