textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the region this afternoon. All severe hazards will be possible, but large hail should be the primary threat soon after storm initiation while damaging winds become more probable as storms organize into clusters or lines. Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially if storms can remain discrete.

- Flash flooding and river flooding is possible this evening, as storms will be capable of producing torrential rainfall. Additionally, training storms may develop in southern portions of the forecast area, where local rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches may occur. A flood watch is in effect late this afternoon through tonight roughly along and south of I-70.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday. Temperatures may fall into the low to mid 30s on Saturday night, with areas of frost possible (up to a 50 percent chance north and east of the Missouri River).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A strong cold front is extending from northwest Missouri into south central Kansas early this afternoon. This front will continue to progress eastward through the afternoon with storms initiating between 2pm-3pm. Initially, discrete supercells may develop out ahead of the front along a prefrontal trough in the warm sector across western Missouri/eastern Kansas in an environment of 3000- 4000J/Kg of SBCAPE, 20-25kts of 0-1Km shear and effective shear between 50-60kts. This will allow for all modes of severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and even a few tornadoes to be possible. Storms are expected to grow upscale as they move through western into central Missouri during the late afternoon/evening quickly transitioning from a discrete mode to a linear mode. As storms become more linear the damaging wind threat will be enhanced and become more widespread with winds gusts of 70 mph up to 90 mph with bow echo features possible. In addition, QLCS tornadoes along the line will also be possible. Although these storms are expected to be progressive they will be extremely efficient as PWATs will be in the 1.2-1.4". rain rates of 1-2 inches per hour in concert with recent wet conditions could produce flash flooding in addition to minor to moderate river flooding. The severe weather threat will look to diminish after 9PM however, showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to continue across central Missouri into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The cold front will usher in much colder temperatures tonight as strong CAA is expected in its wake with lows falling back into the upper 30s to mid 40s. CAA will continue into Saturday until high pressure begins to move into the area late in the day. This will keep highs in the mid 50s to near 60. The surface ridge of high pressure will allow for clear skies and light winds Saturday night providing good radiational cooling for lows to dip into the mid to upper 30s with frost possible. Sunday, surface high pressure will sink south leaving downsloping westerly flow in its place. This will push highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday night into Monday a warm front will lift north across the forecast area. WAA ahead of this front will allow temperatures to further warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s Monday. Tuesday a weak mid-lvl shortwave traveling on northwest flow aloft will bring a chance for a few showers however NBM PoPs remain silent at this time. Tuesday night into Wednesday a upper level trough will dig into the west coast. In response upstream ridging will build across the area aiding in temperatures rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wednesday night into Thursday the upper level trough will push into the western Plains forcing a cold front into the area and producing the next chances for thunderstorms in the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with a broken to overcast cloud deck around 7 to 8 kft and 15 knot north northwesterly winds gusting up to 25 knots. These conditions should generally continue through most of the overnight hours, with skies clearing and gusts relaxing to only 18 to 20 knots by around 10z Saturday morning. Winds should turn westerly and relax to below 10 knots by late afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ057-060- 103>105.