textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible (30 to 50 percent chance) Thursday morning, mainly west of U.S. Highway 65.

- There is a good chance of thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning across the area. An isolated severe storm is possible, mainly in northwest Missouri and far northeast Kansas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

- Cooler and less humid conditions are expected for the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 929 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Storms have finally diminished this evening in northwest Missouri and far eastern Kansas. The latest convection-allowing models have remained consistent in bringing in decaying storms from eastern Kansas Thursday morning (around/after daybreak), mainly affecting areas west of U.S. Highway 65 (and possibly not much farther east than the KC metro area). Have refined PoPs through Thursday morning based on latest model trends.

It seems apparent from this evening's CAMs that convection is quite likely (better than 65% chance) across the forecast area tomorrow night into Friday morning as a mesoscale convective system moves southeastward into/through the region. Chances for severe weather, while low, are not zero, as storm organization upstream may allow for some severe wind gusts with the progressive cold pool(s) moving into the region late in the night. Heavy rainfall is also possible given the anomalous moisture remaining across the region; however, the progressive nature of the storms seems likely to mitigate the flooding threat to some degree. Raised PoPs after midnight Thursday night through Friday morning across the region based on reasonably good consensus amongst the CAMs this evening.

Finally, isolated to scattered storms may redevelop Friday afternoon as an attendant low moves through the central Plains. Best chances for this appear to be east of U.S. Highway 65. The environment would be favorable for severe weather, with damaging winds and a tornado or two the most likely threats. However, given the fairly progressive nature of the system, chances appear higher to the east of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For this afternoon, a weakening MCV, evident in the diminishing radar returns, is slowly tracking to the southeast. This may bring spotty showers and storms to eastern KS and western MO for the remainder of the afternoon, but it seems likely that the diminishing trend will continue with most areas staying dry to only seeing a trace of precipitation. Otherwise, overnight and into tomorrow morning, another area of showers and storms looks possible as the overall setup is similar. In a very moist atmosphere, with PWAT values near/just above 2" in eastern KS and western MO, at the interface of the surface high to the east, and weak mid-level flow aloft, an area of weak isentropic ascent sets up. This should provide just enough ascent to lead to precipitation development. This may be aided by any upstream convection and potential MCV that isn't readily apparent in any model depiction yet, or even generated yet. The RAP does hint at some of this potential with some internal PV noted from 600-400mb. Such is forecasting on the east side of the upper ridge within weak/modest northwesterly flow.

A stronger shortwave trough will track across the northern edges of the upper ridge Thursday evening and overnight. Forcing associated with this shortwave should lead to an area of storms developing to our northwest, that then tracks southeastward with time, affecting the forecast area Thursday night to Friday morning. Models show modest instability and shear into the area through the overnight hours. Given this, and the propensity for northwest flow convective systems to track further southeast than anticipated, a few strong to marginally severe storms look possible for northeastern KS and northwestern MO, in this pattern.

In the wake of this system cooler and much drier air will settle into the area. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday will be a welcomed relief compared to the low to mid 80 degree dewpoints we experienced last weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Aside from storms near STJ early this evening, the TAF sites should be mainly VFR with east to southeast winds 5 to 10 kt through the overnight hours. Convection to the west will approach the terminals after 10z Thursday, but should be in a weakening state as precipitation approaches the TAF sites. For now, have kept thunder mention out of the TAFs and kept VFR showers from roughly 10z to 16z Thursday. During the afternoon, any lingering precipitation should dissipate, with VFR and southeast winds around 10 kt continuing. A better chance of storms exists Thursday night into Friday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.