textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* A few isolated storms are possible tonight. A strong storm or two capable of producing large hail or damaging winds are possible.

* Much warmer and more humid conditions Friday and through the weekend.

* Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Friday and into weekend. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the primary threats.

* Cold front is expected to build south early next week. Cooler, drier and more stable conditions are expected behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Gusty southeast winds have developed across the region with surface high pressure continuing to shift east and deepening low pressure across southeast Colorado. With dry airmass across the region, have seen near red flag conditions but 10 hour fuel moisture remains elevated. Wind gust should gradually diminish through the evening hours as the near surface layer decouples from winds aloft. 40-50 knot low level jet is going to lead to increasing low level moisture across the region tonight. Shortwave across northwestern KS as of 20Z is expected to progress east into ribbon of instability across central KS, potentially leading to storm development in the late afternoon and evening hours. Storm initialization height will be important in terms of potential for severe type. If storms are able to develop closer to the surface, shear including the low level jet will be strong enough to allow storms to organize and potentially produce hail; however, if storms are high based enough above the low level jet, mid level shear alone is somewhat weak, limiting severe threat to primarily wind as low level jet is brought to the surface by the downdraft. Shortwave is expected to move across northern Missouri this evening potentially leading to a storm or two.

Moisture above capping inversion could lead to additional early morning showers and thunderstorms across the region Friday morning, but the more elevated storms, the weaker the shear. Low level moisture is expected to climb throughout the day on Friday with continued southerly flow originating from the Gulf. Capping inversion looks substantial enough to prevent surface based convection from developing throughout the day. Clearing skies could lead to strong insolation with surface temperatures warming into the upper 80s F - with a few locations topping out in the lower 90s across northwestern Missouri. As the low level jet increases across the plains Friday evening, could see additional storms develop in eastern KS/ far western Missouri on the nose of the low level jet. Large scale shear Friday night is somewhat weaker Friday night (0-6 km bulk shear near 30 knots), but instability is much greater with surface based CAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg owing largely to steep mid level lapse rates. This is what is driving the hatched hail threat on the SPC outlook.

Unstable atmosphere remains across the area through the weekend with additional shortwaves originating from deepening trough across the western US. Deterministic models are beginning to slow the progression of cold front early next week as area of low pressure develops along the front across the western plains. Timing of the front will be critical to severe weather threat, however, storms along the front look to provide the greatest widespread threat for severe weather across the region with all severe hazards possible (large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes). With the potential slower progression of the front, SPC extended severe threat into Tuesday. Once the front moves through the area, cooler and drier conditions are expected the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 659 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Intermittent wind gusts continue for the next hour or two as the sun sets. Pockets of LLWS ~1000-2000ft AGL are possible as the nocturnal inversion establishes itself over the next few hours. RA/TSRA to the west is expected to dissipate as it approaches the terminals with a potential for more TSRA development north of STJ and IRK. Winds become more southerly tomorrow with some intermittent gusts possible. Additional TSRA development is possible late in the TAF period (<20 percent), but chances increases beyond this TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.