textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms will move north to south this evening with lingering light rain possible tomorrow morning.

- Severe storms possible Saturday evening through Sunday. Heavy rain is also expected across northern MO, A Flood Watch is in effect.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Current:

Surface high pressure resides over eastern MO this afternoon and is slowly being shunted off to the southeast as a cold front marches across IA. Return flow from the exiting high is allowing for southerly winds to start streaming across the region promoting warm air advection. Highs are expected to climb into the mid 80s.

This Afternoon/tonight:

This afternoon enhanced isentropic lift over KS will interact with a shortwave aloft spawning showers and a few isolated storms. Through the late afternoon and overnight hours the cold front will drop through northern MO with the shortwave aloft intersecting over our CWA. Showers and a few storms will be possible through the overnight hours. While severe storms are not expected, a few storms could be strong and produce small hail.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Weekend:

The frontal boundary is expected to stall out near the metro which could lead to some scattered rain showers lingering through the morning hours. Activity is expected to ramp up in the evening hours as a low pressure moving out of the eastern Rockies strengthens and tracks through the Midwest. This low pressure will be able to tap into some Gulf moisture with the GEFs showcasing PWATs of 2" streaming into northern MO. For context, that is above the 99th percentile for this time of year. The signal in the EFI greater than 0.80 has expanded over the last several runs and slightly shifted south, it now encompasses all of northern MO and is knocking on the doorstep of the KC metro. Shift of tails remains at 1 giving credence to some lower probabilities of over achievement outside of climatology. Model soundings show a totally moist profile through the the atmosphere with warm cloud depths in excess of 10k ft which will lead to efficient rainfall rates. With all this in mind we have a flood watch out northern MO targeting Saturday night through Sunday.

Can't rule out some isolated showers Saturday afternoon due to the strong warm air advection that will be over the region. But the main area of showers and storms are expected to develop over the Central Plains in the afternoon. A strengthening low level jet through the evening hours will feed into these storms with an MCS expected to develop and roll through the CWA in the overnight hours. While heavy rainfall is the more widespread concern, severe weather can not be ruled out at this time. The latest high res guidance shows varying flavors of timing and placement of key features but they are honing in on some increased updraft helicity tracks owing to stronger storms. SPC has our area highlighted in a marginal risk (1/5) with the northwest corner and the KC metro in a slight risk (2/5).

Continued showers and storms are expected through Sunday with the system exiting the region in the evening hours. By this point our region may have seen some excessive rainfall with ongoing flash flooding possible and river rises to moderate levels. Depending on atmospheric recovery and the overall progression of the system we could see a lingering chance for severe storms. SPC has our southern tier of counties in a slight risk (2/5) and everything north of that in a marginal risk (1/5).

Monday the system will have moved off to the east with high pressure building in from the northwest. Highs will be tapered back to a comfortable mid 70 with light winds out of the north. A gradual warm up for Tuesday and Wednesday before the pattern turns active again. Widespread rain chances of 20-30% return on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The wind will remain light throughout the period. Wind direction will be a bit tricky with the wind being so light and even variable at times, especially overnight. The better rain chances (30-40%) at our TAF sites should hold off until the late night/early morning hours (05Z -13Z) and move in from the northwest. This is expected to be more showers than thunderstorms, but can not rule out a little lightning. Will need to watch the Saturday morning hours for possible MVFR ceilings around and several hours after dawn (NAM model), but most guidance (NBM) keeps our TAF sites VFR. Outside of a brief period of possible MVFR ceilings in a passing shower have kept the TAFs VFR for now.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040. KS...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for KSZ025-102>105.