textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers/storms through the early weekend.

- Temperatures remain warm, before cooling down by the early weekend.

- Wet, cooler pattern by next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The current cold front situated just NW of MO will continue to sag southward before becoming quasi-stationary over northern/central MO by the afternoon tomorrow. Despite earlier convection along the cold front, an increasingly inhibited environment with an unfavorable synoptic environment has decreased PoPs through the overnight. High temperatures behind the front fall to the high 60s/low 70s, while areas south of the front remain around the 80s. Continued spread in HREF members on temperature solutions during the afternoon (~4-6 degF spreads) remains across the northern half of MO. However, this corridor of spread narrows through the course of the day, increasing confidence in the position of the front eventually settling over central MO. South of the boundary closer to the US-50 corridor, low- level southerly flow will create a narrow corridor of elevated instability by the late afternoon. Capping will prevent any initiation earlier on in the day, but guidance increasingly indicates the erosion of the cap by the late afternoon. However, our other ingredients for thunderstorm development (vertical wind shear and lift) remain marginal at best, with better synoptic forcing (a shortwave, a LLJ, etc.) remaining displaced from the boundary's location. This creates a setup where, although convection is not out of the question with surface convergence along the boundary by the mid-late afternoon, the risk of severe activity remains low. By this evening, low-level WAA out ahead of a shortwave will reinvigorate chances for precipitation (40-60%) as the boundary lifts back northward. Convective guidance resolves this activity as widespread scattered showers, with building convective inhibition as the nocturnal boundary layer establishes itself despite increasingly favorable shear profiles and elevated instability. This activity looks to persist through early Friday morning/afternoon as the boundary stalls out once again over northern MO, with overall PoPs around 15-30% through the afternoon and evening.

A stout mid-level ridge persists over the eastern third of the CONUS, keeping the forecast area within the periphery of its flow. Another shortwave following the atmospheric flow northward from the southern Plains will increase PoPs (70-90%) Friday evening, bolstered by dCVA at the base of an oncoming mid-level trough. This low amplitude trough will act to push the mid-level ridge axis further off towards the east. However, persistent low-level WAA and dCVA south of I-70 will keep PoPs around 30-50% through Saturday afternoon/evening, which isn't great news for any folks looking to go out for Halloween. In (slightly?) better news, surface winds out of the E/SE coupled with increased cloud cover will help temperatures to fall to the high 60s/low 70s areawide by Saturday, which (although still seasonally high) is much better than continued 80 degree temperatures into November. By Sunday, PoPs look to clear out, with semi-zonal flow as the ridge axis bends off towards the northwest and a mid-level trough over the western CONUS begins its trek eastward. Models continue to indicate the development of a deepening surface cyclone over the central CONUS, which will continue to leave the beginning of next week looking wet as the cyclone lifts off towards the northeast. Synoptic model guidance begins to deviate by the later part of the forecast period on the location of the trough axis over the central CONUS, and whether the trough closes off or continues to propagate along the atmospheric flow. This leads to greater deviations in PoPs by next Wednesday, which decreases overall confidence in solutions for precipitation in the extended forecast. Greater advection of dry, cooler air from the northwest behind the initial surface cyclone will continue to lower temperatures into the early days of November to the high 50s/low 60s areawide.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

MVFR cigs are fcst to persist thru 19Z-20Z before lifting back to VFR conds with bkn-ovc cigs btn 3-5kft expected thru 03Z- 07Z. Aft 03Z-07Z...mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are expected with the chc for a few -tsra btn 08Z-12Z which may produce ocnl MVFR cigs btn 1-2kft. Otrw...winds will generally be out of the ENE to E btn 5- 10kts thru the pd.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.