textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Additional rounds of storms are expected tonight. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, and possibly a strong wind gust.

* Showers and thunderstorms are possible again on Friday ahead of a strong cold front.

* Breezy- windy conditions are expected Friday night into Saturday with cooler than normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Upper level ridge across the southwestern US is expected to remain through the period. Broad upper level trough across the Dakotas is expected to intensify and surface cold front is expected to build south through the region tomorrow. Ahead of the front, a weakly capped atmosphere could lead to periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the region.

As the low level jet develops this evening across the Central Plains, there is the potential for elevated non severe storms to develop across eastern KS building east into western and central Missouri. With precipitable water values of nearly 2.3" and warm cloud depths of 13-14K feet, anything that develops would be very efficient in producing rainfall. Individual storms are expected to build east 15-20 knots, which should be enough movement to prevent flooding unless there is training of storms.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the low center this evening across south central South Dakota into northern Nebraska. These storms are expected to organize in time and build down the thermal ridge/ instability axis potentially impacting the region after 06Z tonight. 0-6km bulk shear is expected to generally be 20- 25 knots, so storms may struggle a bit to organize into a MCS; however, storms will be building southeast into an increasing low level jet that may aid in an isolated wind threat.

These storms are expected to outrun the surface front- creating a conditional threat for the potential for redeveloping storms on Friday with sufficient destabilization. SPC has upgraded the day 2 to slight risk across portions of central into eastern Missouri for the potential of gusty winds and a conditional tornado threat if storms are able to become surface based.

Breezy northwest winds are expected to develop Friday night and continue into Saturday with 30-40 knots of flow at 925 hpa. 850 hpa temperatures are expected to fall into the lower teens, keeping high temperatures unseasonably cool on Saturday.

Temperatures are expected to gradually warm next week towards climatological norms. Precipitation chances return to the region late week as additional waves build east along the periphery of the upper ridge.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A line of storms is still likely to move through the terminals between 07-11Z. Reductions in ceilings and visibility can be expected as the storms impact each terminal. Winds may also gust 25-35kts in the strongest storms. This line moves east of the terminals in the predawn hours with VFR conditions in their wake. During the afternoon, a cold front will move through, shifting winds to the west and then northwest and increasing wind speeds and gusts. Wind gusts of 25kts look likely from the northwest. An area of MVFR ceilings also is likely to move into the area behind the cold front.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.