textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern continues across the region, through the weekend and into at least the middle of the work week

- A river and areal flood threat will continue during this time, often relying on overlapping moderate to heavy rain events.

* Showers and non-severe storms overspread the area this morning into this afternoon before clearing out.

- A localized flooding threat is possible, but unlikely with most areas anticipated to receive an inch or less of rain.

* Severe storm threat Monday is very low with better chances/opportunities Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 413 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

After a couple/few scattered storms Saturday evening over portions of N/NE Kansas, SE Nebraska, and NW Missouri, conditions trended quiet into the overnight. Currently over the area, GOES Nighttime Microphysics product depicts pockets of mostly clear skies as remnant shower activity continue to erode and drift NE through the area. Looking to the SW, can clearly see the next in the series of weather makers moving up through the Southern Plains on various GOES products, including aforementioned Nighttime Microphysics and WV products among others. Regional radar mosaics too show the broad area of precipitation beginning to lift out of Oklahoma and into south-central Kansas at this time. Much of the rest of the overnight will remain quiet for the area responsible shortwave and deep moisture plume continue to build NE toward the area. CAM/Hi-res guidance has tended to slow down the initial precipitation onset, now appearing most likely after 12z for western portions of the forecast area. The SE trend in precipitation has become more stable, resulting in the corridor of greatest chances approximately along a line from the KC Metro, up I-35 into Iowa and areas to the S and E. While there are a few favorable ingredients for a flooding threat, including climatologically high PWats, strong moisture advection, and prolonged precipitation potential, there is limited/low overall concern. Primarily driven by very weak to nil CAPE (limiting rain rates) within the broad WAA/isentropic lift. HREF PMM and recent HRRR runs suggest some stripes of >1" possible, but most areas under that. So, some ponding in prone areas and stream/river rises are the most likely scenario. Otherwise, a mostly dreary daytime period.

Conditions dry out Sunday evening and into the overnight as a degree of mid-level ridging/height rises traverse the area. Concurrently, next approaching shortwave coming off the SW CONUS trough will begin to build low pressure off the Colorado Front Range and to the NW of the immediate area. This will help yield a VERY STRONG capping inversion over the area throughout Monday. Without any notable way to overcome the CAP, new SPC Day 2 Outlook unsurprisingly has taken the area out of the Marginal risk. Fortunate, given the profiles otherwise being quite supportive of organized storms.

The potential for any strong to severe storms continues to be greater on Tuesday. While CAP magnitude may be similar to Monday, warmer surface temps and diurnal mixing likely to yield a very weakly inhibited environment by mid-late afternoon. Though, much of the area is likely to be within warm sector that would tend to require shortwave or other focused lifting mechanism. There tends to be no clear shortwave depiction, which would then suggest our most likely scenario is upscale growth from initiation in eastern Kansas and NE Oklahoma. Regardless, the environment will be supportive of organized and strong convection with steep mid level lapse rates (>1500-2000 J/kg CAPE), >35-40 kts deep shear, etc. Tend to see hail/wind threat as the primary given lean towards upscale growth scenario for the area. See SPC Day 3 Slight Risk and discussion as well.

As the western trough finally begins to kick out into the Plains, Wednesday may see another strong/severe threat across the area. Attendant surface low will begin to move across Nebraska/Iowa through the day, dragging a surface front into the area by the afternoon. Main uncertainty here will be any ongoing/persistent precipitation and cloud cover. Deterministic synoptic guidance shows off/on or semi-persistent QPF from Tuesday evening through Wednesday. So, how much can or will the environment be able to recover before the surface front and mid-upper trough reach the area Wednesday afternoon/evening? Should the environment recover sufficiently, this could be our all modes risk. Or, could just be messy weaker convection much of the day. The SPC Day 4 15% is certainly reasonable given the potential and uncertainty.

Phew, at least a brief break Thursday as the upper trough kicks east and front passes through the area. However, another western trough begins to dig down the coast at this time and guidance suggests a progressive passage through the Mountain West. This potentially yields renewed shower/storm activity by Friday evening and into early portions of next weekend.

Aside from cooler temperatures during and immediately after precipitation, persistent southerly flow/WAA to keep the area near and above seasonal norms throughout the forecast period. Expect highs often in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Widespread showers and MVFR CIGs continue across the terminals/region this early afternoon, with brief lowering in VIS during more moderate periods of rainfall. Rain should exit to the east by around 20z this afternoon, with MVFR CIGs likely hanging around through around 00z this evening. MVFR CIGs are likely to return once again by around 9z Monday morning and should continue into at least early Monday afternoon. Elevated SSW winds should continue through the period, with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon and again Monday afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots through the overnight and early Monday morning period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.