textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for showers this afternoon, with greater chances (50-70%) towards southern MO.

- Cooler temperatures and quieter conditions overall, with scattered chances for precipitation near the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Quieter weather will persist through the overnight and into the morning. Presently, the upper level trough is situated west of the Hudson Bay, as the shortwave that triggered our recent round of severe weather lifts off towards the Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will maintain northerly winds, and help drier, cooler conditions prevail in the short term. Going into the afternoon, a passing surface low and it's associated shortwave trough will reinvigorate precipitation in southern MO. Low- level moisture transport will be mitigated through the day by surface high pressure promoting advection of drier air through the forecast area, keeping higher chances (50-70%) of showers/storms further south. However, greater upper level moisture transport broadly encompassing central/northern MO and broad-scale lift ahead of the shortwave will push slight chances (10-30%) of precipitation further north through the day. In addition to this, instability will greatly remain further south than our forecast area, minimizing the potential for severe storms during the day. However, some rumbles of thunder are still possible with whatever instability is able to generate in the atmosphere during the day.

After today, the upper level trough is progged to dig down towards the Great Lakes. As this trough propagates and eventually stalls over the Great Lakes behind an amplified ridge over the Atlantic, it will place us under a generally north/northwesterly flow regime for the next few days. This will help keep our temperatures cooler and conditions drier to close out what has been a very active past month. Embedded shortwaves within the broader upper level pattern will invigorate slight chances (10-20%) of precipitation Thursday afternoon along a convergent boundary. This blocking pattern in the upper-levels will persist, with amplified shortwave ridging and surface high pressure building into our area as the upper level trough wobbles eastward with momentum from a passing shortwave trough. This will help keep conditions dry over the weekend. Another series of disturbances in the flow will invigorate low-end chances for precipitation to end out the forecast period, aided by southerly surface flow transporting warmer, moister air from the south as the surface high traverses east. Increased model divergence at this point decreases overall confidence in precipitation during this period, however.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

MVFR CIGs should lift through the early afternoon. However, confidence in VFR CIGs occurring by 18Z at KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD is low, so have opted for a TEMPO group to capture the clearing trend. A few showers have also formed in eastern KS, which may impact KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD over the next couple of hours. Once the showers clear the area and CIGs improve, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period with northerly winds around 5-10 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.