textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A mix of rain and snow is likely (50-75%) Friday evening and overnight. There is a small chance of minor accumulations (10-20% chance for snow amounts greater 0.5").

- Low potential for snow showers Saturday afternoon and early evening. It is more probable the area remains dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

The strong shortwave trough that brought the year's first convective warnings to the area, has rapidly moved into the Great Lakes region. The broader upper trough, evident on water vapor imagery, from the Four-Corners through the Rockies and into the Northern Plains/ Canadian prairies, will eject another shortwave into the Central Plains later today. This wave will begin to affect eastern KS and western MO, with what is more then likely to be rain, at least initially, starting around 00Z Saturday. As temperatures cool through the evening and overnight hours, a transition to snow will occur. But given the positive tilt to the shortwave, forcing will be limited as the wave traverses the area. So it looks like as the transition to snow occurs, we see a general decrease in intensity. Given the setup, snow amounts, if any at all, will be very minimal. The NBM shows about a 10-20% chance for half an inch of snow over northern MO and northeastern. This even looks generous given the positively tilted trough, lack of strong forcing, and warmer temperatures. This shortwave exits the area by 12Z Saturday.

During the day Saturday, a stronger PV anomaly moves southward into the Upper Midwest, clipping northern MO. This stronger wave will push a strong cold front south during the late afternoon and evening hours hours. There is some potential for snow showers with the upper PV rotating southward and along the front surging south in response. Both the NAM and the GFS show elevated snow- squall parameter values along the front. The GFS even shows positive surface-based instability. Forecast soundings for northern MO show a relatively short period of saturation in the DGZ during the afternoon and evening hours, before drier air overtakes the area. So, I can't rule out some snow showers, given the setup, but things look more favorable further north, beneath the core of the upper PV anomaly and where colder temperatures will be present. The snow squall parameter is also much more robust further north with stronger positive surface- based instability as well.

The remainder of the forecast looks mainly dry. There is a strong clipper system noted early next week that may clip northern MO based on this suite of guidance. But outside of that the forecast beyond Saturday looks mainly dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru 01Z-03Z when lgt rain is expected to move into the TAF sites reducing vis to 5-6SM with ovc cigs btn 4-5kft. Aft 04Z-05Z...lgt rain is expected to mix with and perhaps chc over to snow with MVFR cigs and vis reduced to 1SM-3SM. Pcpn is fcst to come to an end btn 07Z-09Z with cigs/vis again becmg VFR with a bkn deck around 4kft expected. Winds will be out of the N btn 5-10kts thru 03Z aft which winds will become NNW/NW around 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.