textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Chance for rain continues to increase through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Summer-like temperatures will persist into early next week as a stubborn upper-level ridge sits across the eastern CONUS. For most, highs today will climb into the low-mid 80s in the wake of a northward moving surface boundary. The exception is across the NE CWA, where temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the upper 70s with a more southeasterly flow. As has been widely advertised, this is 10-20 degrees above average for this time of the year, near the 90th percentile (normal high for today is 71F in Kansas City, 69F in Kirksville, and 71F in Sedalia.)

Overnight, a weak surface low will move NE across central Nebraska. Ascent associated with the low along with the nose of a strengthening low-level jet across Iowa will be enough to initiate nocturnal showers and thunderstorms across portions of Iowa, but it's unlikely (<10%) that this activity will propagate into northern Missouri. Forecast soundings continue to show a deep dry layer below 600mb, so the required moisture isn't in place to support precipitation.

Temperatures over the weekend will range from the low 80s across northern Missouri to the low 90s in central Missouri as the upper- level ridge maintains its position over the area. This ridge and a developing western trough will keep the remnants of Hurricane Isaias generally east of the Mississippi River heading into next week, with no sensible effects forecast across our area.

Considerable uncertainty is introduced Tuesday through Thursday as the trough over the Rockies begins to dig southeast. Moisture from another landfalling tropical storm (Simon) on the west coast of Mexico will work its way north into the south-central Plains, bringing increased PoPs with it. The speed at which the trough moves into the Plains will have a major impact on the mid-week forecast. A slower solution (favored by ~60% of LREF ENS members and the deterministic AIGFS) would push rain chances back to the Wednesday night-Friday time frame and keep highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek. A more progressive solution (favored ~50% of LREF GEFS members and the deterministic ECMWF) could bring rain chances in as early as Tuesday morning and lower highs down into the mid 70s. The NBM reflects this uncertainty well with a 10-15 degree interquartile spread on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Quiet and VFR aviation conditions continue to prevail across the TAF sites. Winds will generally remain out of the SE this afternoon and evening with sustained winds approaching 10kts at times. Overnight winds ease and become more southerly and eventually southwesterly Friday daytime. By the end of the period, sustained winds approach or exceed 10kts with occasional gusts into the teens kts.

The one other item of note will be that KSTJ may again see some periodic visibility reductions with any fog development given its position in the river valley.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.