textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty Winds and Scattered Snow Showers Today

- Temperatures Below Normal This Weekend, Start of Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Several mid-level features are present over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS that will ultimately drive a very cold airmass into the region. At the surface, deep cyclone centered over Ontario is moving eastward, with pressure trough and associated cold front dragging across the eastern Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. There is another cold front dropping south through the Dakota's this morning. Along with the cold front, a stronger H5 vort maxima associated with a mid-level short-wave axis will increase lift later this afternoon in vicinity of the front, with lift still possible even after the primary frontal passage in the afternoon. Already seeing cloud cover on GOES Nighttime Physics Imagery this morning in an area of enhanced Q-vector convergence, tied mainly to the mid- level short-wave. Currently air in the boundary layer has been very dry, therefore, the radar returns noted early this morning have not been producing anything at the surface, yet. Perhaps some flurry activity could be spotted.

An area of subsidence is expected late this morning through early afternoon on the backside of the cold front, with the first mid- level vort maxima exiting toward the southeast. Stronger CAA between 700mb-500mb will help to steepen mid-level lapse rates, meanwhile, warming near the surface from insolation will begin to develop modest instability. Over the past few CAM runs, 0-3km CAPE values are progged to reach 80-100 J/kg just ahead of the cold front, and in another area of stronger Q-vector convergence above 700mb. Moisture will be limited, but model soundings continue to show dendrite development with moisture being located within a favorable DGZ. Couple that with the instability and a few sources of broad scale lift, will be capable of generating snow showers, and some likely to demonstrate convective behavior. A peak at simulated reflectivity from CAM output hints at this, with banded snowfall like features present. With winds around 30-35 kts toward the top of the progged mixed layer, could result in snow shower bursts during the afternoon with visibility dropping below one mile for short periods of time. The background environment does provide some suggestion for snow squall potential. However, the limited moisture may prevent showers from achieving actual snow squall criteria. Mesoanalysis will be important this afternoon to watch for changing conditions. As for snowfall amounts, only a few tenths of an inch are expected. With the gusty winds, getting an accurate measurement anywhere will be very difficult. Further, daytime heating is expected to boost surface temperatures into the upper 30s and lower 40s today, promoting melting that will also limit snow accumulations. It is a bit odd to be talking about snow showers with surface temperatures forecast this warm, but their occurrence is likely given the strong forcing and instability that is expected. In periods absent of snow shower activity, pressure gradient will be quite strong with pressure falls extending southward toward Ozarks region with dCVA heading toward the Interstate 44 corridor, while a surface anticyclone attempts to develop over the High Plains. Wind gusts above 25 MPH may continue into the evening hours. The cold front eventually moves through the area late tonight, with drier air eventually brining an end to snow activity.

The weekend through the start of next week will be characterized by strong closed-low system that remains parked between the Northern Great Lakes Region and Hudson Bay, sending multiple mid-level vort maxima into the Central CONUS allowing for persistent CAA. This Polar airmass will keep temperatures below normal through the weekend and the start of the next work week, with wind chills likely to dip below zero during the morning hours. Moisture will be hard to come by, but would not be surprised to see some scattered flurry activity through the weekend as pushes of CAA come and go, and passing mid-level disturbances move through. There is a weak signal for a system at the surface to move into our area, that could bring some precipitation activity late Thursday into next week Friday. This will largely depend on how the pattern over the Great Lakes evolves through the week though.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Main concerns within the TAF period will be the increasing/gusty NW winds as well as the potential for SHSN by around/after 18z. Frontal boundary will pass all TAF sites within the first few hours of this TAF period, turning winds out of the NW. The stronger sustained and gusts lag a bit behind, so have stepped up winds through the overnight/morning and further with increased daytime mixing. By around/after 18z, convective SHSN remains expected to begin to move into/through the wider area. Confidence in how much/long any SHSN may affect a TAF site remains limited, but enough to warrant PROB30 entries across the sites. Kept those mentions to MVFR, but there will be the possibility of brief IFR if any of the stronger SHSN areas traverse a TAF site.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.