textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional Rain Shower Activity Today, More Possible Monday

- Cooler Temperatures This Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

As of 07z this morning the surface cold front is located from near Manhattan KS to southeast Iowa. The main convective complex became outflow dominant, but additional mid-level height falls and strengthening low-level jet has allowed more thunderstorm to activity to develop on both sides of the cold front. A few strong cores are still possible with elevated CAPE present, the strong outflow boundary from late Saturday Night has greatly worked the environment over and has helped to stabilize much of the boundary layer. While main H5 wave moves through, cyclonic vorticity advection will continue to provide broadscale lift across much of the lower Missouri River through most of Sunday, maintaining rain shower chances through most of the day. The main synoptic cold front should push through during the middle of Sunday morning, perhaps still producing stronger convergence in our southern and southeastern zones through the middle of the afternoon. Redevelopment of stronger thunderstorms may be possible from Bates County MO to Pettis and perhaps even Cooper Counties. But most of the stronger activity should then push toward the Interstate 44 corridor and Ozarks Region, while general shower activity continues into Central Missouri and eastern Kansas. So far rainfall rates have been fairly light, and should remain this way thus limiting hydro and areal flooding issues. We will still continue to monitor river levels and fast responding streams particularly in the KC metro.

By Monday, the surface cyclone and cold front will have cleared the forecast area, leaving seasonable temperatures for the afternoon. Deterministic guidance still depicts a closed mid-level mainly over the upper-Midwest, but some lift may still be possible into the lower Missouri River Valley. Ensemble suites continue to point to 30- 40 percent probabilities for light rainfall, especially through Monday late morning and early afternoon. Amongst ensemble members though, there is larger spread in how expansive the lift is associated with the feature over the Midwest, and as a result may be causing higher probabilities over too large of an area. This lift should move eastward by Monday Night, where conditions will finally dry out. Through the middle of the week, H5 ridge develops over the western CONUS and provides northwesterly flow, which will help keep high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Current forecast remains dry through Wednesday, with the next feature that breaks down the mid-level ridge progged to move in Thursday when our next mentionable precipitation chances return to the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the next few hours as a cold front moves south through the area, with ascent over that front providing enough lift to keep precipitation going. Flight conditions will deteriorate as the front moves south with MVFR and possibly IFR conditions anticipated. These are more probable across northern MO and KS, but will also likely make it into the IXD terminal Sunday morning before lifting into low MVFR or VFR by the afternoon. Winds will become northerly at 10kts or less behind the front over the next few hours, and persist through the remainder of the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.