textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Best chance for strong to severe storms Tuesday evening/night, Wednesday afternoon/evening, and Friday afternoon/evening.

* Generally seasonally warm and humid through the work week. Cooler and drier (less humid) into the weekend.

- Highs upper 70s to 80s through Friday, then mid-50s to 60s into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 403 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

SW large scale flow/pattern is well established through the central CONUS as a western trough continues to down the California coast and toward the SW CONUS. Closer to the immediate area surface pressure continues to build and glide off the Colorado Front Range in response to shortwave moving through the mean flow. This has worked to increase surface/near surface flow locally (gusting into 20s kts currently), and effectively surging additional WAA/moisture up into and through the Southern and Central Plains. While potent ~19-20 deg C cap/EML is being advected into the area currently, a few elevated showers/general thunderstorms will be possible this morning on the nose of a 40-50+kt LLJ and steep lapse rates above the cap/EML. This activity/potential has been seen on GOES Nighttime Microphysics products (convective clouds above the stratus) and most recently with budding returns on local WSR-88D. Nothing to see here given the highly elevated nature and limited instability with which to work with. A few flashes of lightning and rumbles of thunder. This activity drifts NE through the morning, with some potential uptick in coverage as it exits the forecast area into SE Iowa and far NE Missouri.

For the remainder of the day, if you just looked at the parameter space there would be concern for some robust convection. Fortunately though, the well advertised strong capping/EML will be in place. There are some indications the cap weakens and in some cases nearly erodes by around 00z, but without a clear mechanism for lift it remains unlikely for any surface based convection to be achieved. Through the day, it is possible to see a few elevated showers with depictions of near dry adiabatic lapse rates atop the cap/EML and ongoing WAA/moisture advection through at least the lower levels. In the unlikely event that something surface based is able to be achieved (strong enough differential heating if prolonged pockets of sunshine are achieved? sun angle too low?), environment will would be supportive of organized and robust convection. Through the day, conditions too will be quite windy and have upped winds over baseline NBM, coming more in line with recent CAM runs/guidance. Current expectation for sustained winds 15-20+ mph and gusts 25-35 mph. Into the overnight surface winds remain up, and a few elevated showers remain possible as LLJ picks up.

Instead, Tuesday continues to be the better of the immediate days for strong to severe potential over the area. As the larger SW Conus trough continues to work into the Intermountain West, it will eject another shortwave into the flow and trigger another round of Lee Cyclogenesis. This surface low will move off the Front Range further south than the Monday iteration, building into/tracking over C/NE Kansas. While EML will initially be of similar strength/magnitude, ongoing WAA and typical diurnal mixing will help yield a notably weaker CAP. Surface temps to be a handful degrees warmer than Monday, into the mid 80s. Parameter space wise, hi-res/CAM guidance in fair agreement on >1500-2000 J/kg SB/MLCAPE and >35-40 kts deep shear. Now, will we be able to break the CAP locally and achieve discrete convection... that is the question. There remains a lack of substantial lift locally. And while the dry line moves toward eastern Kansas, guidance is not excited about initiation immediately to our west. Instead,CAM runs remain quite consistent in the CAP breaking over N Oklahoma and S Kansas by around mid-afternoon and that activity moving NE with the mean flow. Should this solution prevail, our severe threat most likely revolves around a wind and hail threat. The northward extent of activity may also be dependent on the evolution of the surface low and how far E/NE the drier air is able to move, and that is of course depicted near the KC Metro in some cases. So we will continue to keep an eye on that. The Slight Risk within the new SPC Day 2 Outlook is very reasonable given the parameter space and the uncertainties at hand.

Activity may continue into overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with persistent strong WAA/moisture advection and increasing LLJ, but with more limited severe potential. The strong to severe potential Wednesday hinges largely on how the atmosphere is or is not able to recover/destabilize as overnight activity and cloud cover may/likely continue into the daytime Wednesday. The most likely area of concern may be back near/along the approaching dry line/front and as the western CONUS trough moves out into the Plains and provides more robust lift and deep shear. The SPC Day 3 Slight over much of the area too is reasonable.

Quieter, but still warm, conditions prevail Thursday as trough departs eastward and mid-upper ridging moves in behind. But, the hits keep on rolling though as the overall active pattern continues as storms return Friday. Whether it be activity lifting out of the Southern Plains or along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Quick peek at conditions does suggest another at least semi-favorable parameter space and is reflected in the SPC Day 5 15% risk.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

First few hours of the overnight will present clear skies, but area of MVFR stratus will continue to move northward across the region, and will lingering through the early afternoon hours before scattering out and bases raising to VFR conditions. Strong pressure gradient will maintain breezy southwesterly winds for most of Monday. Isolated shower activity is possible by a strong cap is expected to largely inhibit development.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.