textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon before rain moves in tonight (mainly northeastern MO), kicking off an active weather pattern through the weekend and into early next week.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow night. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

* Storms possible again Sunday into the beginning of next week. Some storms could be severe, mainly Monday, but uncertainty remains high.

* Several consecutive days of rain could lead to river/areal flood concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Current 500-hPa analysis shows a mid-level trough tracking across southern Canada and the Northern Plains with an associated surface low pressure system moving into the northern Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is draped across southeastern NE and western IA. A few showers and storms have developed in southeastern NE and southern IA along this front. A couple of showers may drift into northeastern MO and northwestern KS through the afternoon and evening as the front nudges into the area, but no strong storms are expected. A WAA regime south of the cold front has brought temperatures into the low-to-mid 70s across the area. Southerly winds will continue to gust to 30-40 mph through the afternoon before dropping off this evening.

The front is expected to stall across northern MO tonight providing a focal point for showers and storms to form over the next couple of days. Largely zonal flow is expected aloft on Thursday with a couple of shortwave ripples moving through the flow. These shortwaves may allow showers and storms to form by mid-day across northern MO, however, the better forcing for widespread convection looks to arrive Thursday evening as the nose of 40-50 kt LLJ moves into the area. Instability will be fairly scarce with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE expected during the day, decreasing after sunset, thus widespread severe weather is not expected, however, the strongest storms will still be capable of producing large hail and strong to severe winds, hence the SPC marginal (Level 1 of 5) risk across northern MO and slight (Level 2 of 5) risk across northeastern KS.

Showers and storms will continue into Friday as several shortwaves continue to propagate through the zonal flow pattern with the stalled front remain the focus for development. The front should drift southward through the area on Friday, spreading precipitation across the whole area. This will also keep high temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s across most of the area on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The active pattern will continue into the weekend as an upper- level trough is expected to move inland to California on Saturday. A shortwave will propagate through the flow ahead of the main trough on Saturday, resulting in the stalled front lifting northward across the area. This will lead to WAA induced showers and storms through the afternoon Saturday and into Saturday night. Southerly flow and WAA induced showers will continue Sunday, however, a stout cap will be in place, limiting the storm potential.

The next chance for severe weather comes on Monday as the upper-level trough progresses eastward across the Rockies, inciting surface cyclogenesis in northern CO and the NE panhandle. The area will be in the open warm sector with southerly flow and 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE. The best convective potential currently looks to be Monday evening as a cap will be in place through much of the day, however, many of the finer details have yet to be resolved by current model guidance.

Beyond Monday, model guidance begins to diverge, though the chances for showers and storms look to continue through at least midweek. Given that several consecutive days of showers and storms are expected through the next few days and into the extended, concerns about river/areal flooding are beginning to form. However, given the amount of uncertainty in the forecast at this point, confidence in flooding occurring/locations of flooding are low.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the TAF period. Southerly winds will gust to 30-40 mph this afternoon before dropping off this evening and becoming light and variable overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.