textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- The coldest temperatures of the season are expected this morning with lows in the 20s across the region. A few spots in the upper teens are possible.

- Temperatures steadily warm through the weekend (reaching the mid 50s by Monday) with the warming trend continuing through the remainder of next week (forecast highs in the 60s to near 70).

- Rain chances late next week persist. Some uncertainties in the forecast remain as the pattern continues to evolve over the next 5 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Satellite imagery and near river obs show that fog has developed immediately along the MO River. This is mainly due to the difference between river and air temperatures. Winds are high enough that fog appears to be limited to areas very near the river, particularly in low lying areas that may be shielded from air flow. Some patchy dense spots are possible. Fog should disperse shortly after sunrise.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The coldest morning of the season is upon us. Temperatures have dipped below 30F here at the office at the time of writing with the expectation that temperatures will continue to fall into the low to mid 20s across the region. It would not be surprising to see a few spots dip into the upper teens across central MO. The primary catalyst is a stout ridge visible across all height levels. At low levels, the center of this ridge envelopes areas from northern MO to western Ontario. Aloft, northwest flow pushes colder Canadian air southward. The positioning of this lower level high with antecedent light winds creates an environment for strong nocturnal cooling. However, model sounding analyses combined with upper level water vapor imagery shows a channel of moisture stretching from eastern MT southeastward toward NW AR. At the upper levels, this extends into eastern KS and is slowly migrating toward western MO. These clouds, though nearly 30-40k feet above the surface, may provide some cover slightly reducing the rate of nocturnal cooling to keep a vast majority of the region at or above 20F. This is boosted by patches of low level saturation as temperatures decrease at a slightly faster rate than dew points through the night. As the sun rises, low level winds shift back southerly as the overall pattern transients eastward. While winds are expected to be light through the day (5-10 MPH), this southerly shift will be enough to bump highs up by 2-4 degrees compared to yesterday with most of the region topping out in the upper 40s to near 50. The trend of southerly warm air advection looks to continue through next week likely swinging temperatures back to well above normal.

Attention turns west through the weekend as a large scale trough attempts moves onshore. The hemispheric wave that aggregates the perturbations stretches from the Pacific coast to the Aleutians. The center of which looks to remain stalled in the Gulf of Alaska. It is expected for the 500mb trough axis centered near the Four Corners region to eject and spiral along the Red River valley of OK/TX. This briefly redirects the flow of warm air; stalling the warming trend Monday. Southerly flow quickly reforms Tuesday lifting highs to the 60s by mid next week with upper 60s to some 70s expected late next week.

Dry weather also dominates the next 5 days before precipitation chances return. The Aleutian wave mentioned earlier finally progresses eastward and moves into the Pacific northwest. As it does so, a ridge across the eastern CONUS facilitates a tightening pressure gradient across the central CONUS. This funnels Gulf moisture and warm air northward. Several shortwaves ejecting ahead of the main trough catalyze the development of showers across the central part of the country. Guidance remains varied about where storms will track. A glancing chance of rain, mainly for NW MO on Thursday, followed by more geographically spread, yet still relatively low (10-30 percent) through Friday morning. As next weekend approaches accelerated midlevel flow, upper level CVA, and some surface kinematic and thermal dynamics looks to bring the best chances for showers (and some embedded thunderstorms) next Saturday (40-60 percent). It is still far too early to speculate the nitty- gritty details of next weekend's forecast as the macroscale movement of the Pacific wave and the synoptic evolution beneath it through the weekend will greatly affect the anticipated weather pattern over the next 7-9 days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

River fog around STJ is expected to disperse over the next hour or so as the sun rises. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Some SCT low clouds are possible through the day with BKN high CIGs expected. Winds remain generally light out of the SE becoming more E after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.