textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe thunderstorms will move into and across the area this evening into the early overnight. - Initial storms to the west are expected to carry the strongest/greatest potential, with gradual weakening as they translate east into and across Missouri

- Any discrete (single) storms will carry an all hazards (hail, wind, tornado) risk.

- Storms expected to congeal into a line through the evening, and would transition primary hazards to damaging winds a few short lived tornadoes possible along the line

* Active weather pattern looks to continue through the weekend and into Monday. This includes multiple chances for strong to severe storms.

- Saturday evening: mainly S and W of the KC Metro

- Sunday night/overnight: mainly S and W of line from Maryville to Jefferson city

- Monday: Over much of the area, especially east

* Total rainfall accumulations from today through Monday could approach 3 to 4 inches across the region. This could yield some river and areal flooding concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A lot to unpack with this discussion.

Currently, storms are ongoing or continue to initiate over portions of IA/NE/KS along an occluded (IA/NE) to dry line (KS/OK) boundary extending southward out of a surface low in southern Manitoba. With at least some sunshine along and ahead of this boundary and concurrent with ongoing low level moisture advection, an unstable and severe prone environment has prevailed. SPC Mesoanalysis points to a corridor of MLCAPE >2500 J/kg concurrent with little to no cap, >35-40 kts effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing DCAPE values as you work southward from the KS/NE border. All of this yields an unsurprisingly robust environment for at least large hail and damaging winds. Modeled hi-res hodographs near the boundary exhibit limited low level curvature, but forecasts suggests some improvement as activity translates eastward. In the immediate term, this suggests very large hail and damaging winds, with a secondary tornadic threat. All good and well, but we are a few hours out from activity for much of the forecast... which general expectations are for more linear segments or clusters to form if not full blown QLCS. Cloud cover over much of the area today has limited the degree to which we have been able to destabilize, reflected in the Mesoanalysis depicting showing ~1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE values and significant existing capping. So the show will be the linear segments/QLCS when it arrives vs any notable open warm sector potential. At that point, expectation remains for primary threat to be for damaging straight line winds and the potential for some QLCS tornadoes along segments that are able to best orient themselves orthogonal to increasing magnitude 0-3km shear vectors. Given more limited instability over the area, this keeps too the expectation for greatest magnitude severe over western areas of the CWA and gradual weakening as it moves eastward. WOFS runs and additional hi- res guidance continue to regularly depict bowing convective segments, which bolsters both the straight line wind and QLCS tor thinking and all but eliminates near-severe to severe hail. SPC Day 1 updates, including introduction of 30 percent wind and additional Sig 1 hatching generally in line with local thinking, albeit the Sig 1 tor may be a bit far eastward for our liking. That said, there is always a butt/caveat... and here that is if there can be any discrete or semi-discrete convection that is able to develop or maintain into the evening and toward the metro, forecast low level wind profiles/hodographs suggest an increased tornado threat. So, keep an eye on storm mode. Linear/QLCS is primarily expected as everything translates into the area, but a discrete/semi-discrete storm will carry an elevated tornado threat. Overall, activity moves out of the KC Metro area by around/after 10/11pm. By that time, majority of the severe threat for damaging winds and QLCS tornadic activity likely to be winding down as the general environment becomes more prohibitive. General/non-severe thunder would continue into the overnight and across the remainder of the area with true cold front likely trailing behind by a couple/few hours.

Quiet day Friday, but the active weather pattern continues into/through the weekend as the broader pattern continues to suggest a messy Omega Block look setting up over the Northern CONUS into Canada.

Saturday presents the next potential for storms, even severe, as a shortwave traverses southern stream and surface low development over Southern High Plains. Deterministic synoptic guidance broadly depicts afternoon/evening development in the vicinity of a warm frontal boundary laid up somewhere in Kansas. Currently S/SW portions of the area (think KC area and S/SW) may be clipped by this activity. General expectation would be for initial eastward progressing then likely diving SE along the depicted CAPE gradients into the evening. All hazards likely with initial convection, then toward wind with likely MCS development given the wind and thermal environments.

More substantial shortwave trough well depicted by synoptic deterministic guidance moving through the southern stream, and will provide yet another opportunity for strong/severe storms. A lot has to transpire before we get to this point, but guidance has many pieces in place for a potential higher end severe weather day. This includes significant low level moisture return, potentially significant MUCAPE depictions, pretty ideal jet placement, nicely curved hodographs, etc as the shortwave trough and surface low lift NE. For a few cycles, timing has been questionable, but a recent slowing has pointed toward the warm sector remaining in place over at least eastern Missouri into Monday afternoon. That would allow much of the above to be in place. Any further slowing and the entirety of Missouri could be of concern Monday itself. But of note too, the unquestionable lift with this system may allow for at least strong storms Sunday overnight that could grow upscale in magnitude Monday morning/afternoon if they are ongoing. Certainly a time period (Sunday overnight through Monday) to watch closely as the forecast continues to zero in on track and timing of this shortwave trough and attendant surface low.

By Monday, should we realize multiple rounds of showers and storms, we may be dealing with at least minor or nuisance water issues within the area. Whether that be river flooding or localized areal/flash flooding considering it is possible some areas see as much as 4 inches through this time period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Messy TAF period, at least the initial half, across the area. Existing MVFR conditions will continue to gradually lift with diurnal heating/mixing, potentially yielding low VFR prior to storms moving through. Confidence in storms is effectively certain, with any lingering uncertainty around exact start/end times. Have kept with prevailing window of time based on most recent hi-res guidance, and used TEMPOs within to signal the more brief heavy rain/low visibility with the primary line of storms. Conditions return VFR post-storms with the surface boundary/northerly winds lagging a couple/few hours behind.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.