textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.

* Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Conditions currently much quieter than just a few hours ago. Remnant activity from this evening continues to lift NE through far NE Missouri and into far SE Iowa and west-central Illinois, including additional Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Synoptic scale conditions favoring active weather remain entrenched across the region. Western CONUS trough has begun to move into Intermountain West, keeping deep SW flow over the central CONUS. This eastward movement of the larger trough and an expected leading piece of shortwave energy will yield another round of Lee Cyclogenesis and an elongated surface low building into and moving across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This more southerly placement vs yesterday/Monday will push the dry line closer to and even across portions of the CWA. Hi- res/CAM guidance of late has consistently built/pushed this dry line into SW Iowa by the mid-afternoon and angled back to the SW across NW Missouri, NE Kansas and onward SW. More on this in just a second. The open warm sector will initially be robustly capped once again, but ongoing WAA remains poised to yield highs a handful of degrees warmer today than yesterday, and coupled with diurnal mixing will yield a notably weaker/weak cap by mid-late afternoon. But... we still remain notably lackluster in the synoptic or mesoscale lift depictions. So, back to the dry line. Consistency is also seen in a lack of initiation along the dry line in IA/MO/most of KS with the forecast orientation largely parallel to surface/low level flow. This is notably different in far S Kansas and N Oklahoma where robust convergence into the dry line is anticipated. This "should" be the initiation genesis region, and activity lifting NE toward the forecast area through the late afternoon and evening. As has been noted in previous discussions, this would likely yield a multi- cellular/cluster or linear storm mode for the area. Given what transpired yesterday evening, will certainly note that if we are able to initially convect closer to home or if discrete cells remain, the environment is in many ways similar. Robust CAPE (>2000- 2500 J/kg), supportive deep shear (>35-40 kts 0-6km), and very high near-surface "streamwiseness" noted in hodographs. Regardless, very large hail and damaging winds are the primary concern, with tornadic potential possible with any supercellular structure (though noted LCLs are a bit high). Timing for this would be late afternoon (if we convect closer to home) to evening/night (the more likely KS/OK initial storms moving NE into area). The dry line position will largely determine the N/NW extent of severe threat, which may be near the KC Metro. Sagging frontal boundary catching the dry line and/or LLJ increasing too looks to initiate some more elevated convection, but would generally be in a much less supportive environment by this time (evening/overnight) for strong/severe over NW parts of the CWA. Main things to watch for through the day will be dry line evolution (how far east?) and orientation (areas of greater low level convergence close to home?). SPC New Day 1 Slight Risk remains in place for the area with noted Sig 1 hatching for Hail. Also note Sig 1 hatching for Tornado flirts with far SW forecasts area, noting the best area for discrete storms/supercells.

Additional rounds of less potent showers/storms are generally depicted within hi-res/CAM guidance through the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. A good amount of uncertainty in how this transpires given reliance and upstream convection evolution. For the most part, the greatest ramifications are for how the environment might recover or struggle to recover Wednesday. However, the strong low level flow may limit the bottom end. If we see more sunshine/recovery than cloud cover, another round of very robust convection/storms may be possible. As of now, guidance preference is to initiate along the dry line/cool front hybrid that again may be in the vicinity of the KC Metro and in a NE to SW orientation. Much uncertainty here though, so we shall see how the environment evolves. SPD Day 2 Slight with no noted Sig 1 (or other) hatching into the area.

A brief reprieve Thursday as the open wave/trough kicks east, but not really cooler, which helps the area quickly rebound for yet another round of strong to severe weather potential Friday. Of note here, the thermodynamic and kinematic setup is quite impressive in various synoptic guidance. This as another western CONUS trough begins to move out of the Intermountain West and into the Plains. As it does so, takes on a mature/negative tilt orientation, helping yield some of the impressive kinematics. Devil is in the details in how the attendant surface low, general low level features, and timing evolves, so suffice it to say that Friday is absolutely a day/evening to pay attention to. This is also well reflected with the SPC Day 4 bump up to 30% (Enhanced equivalent) over portions of the area.

Trough and surface low pivots through Friday night, leaving in its wake notably cooler (more seasonable) and quieter conditions for at least the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The back edge of widespread MVFR low stratus will shift east of the terminals over the next 1-2 hours, and should be clear of Highway 65 by 16-17z. Winds outside of thunderstorm activity will be from the S around 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts.

Quiet weather with only passing high cirrus is expected through 00z Wednesday, but scattered convection will erupt along the dry line in eastern Kansas around 23-01z. The greatest confidence in convective impacts will be along and south of I-70, so have introduced TEMPO group for IFR vsby TSRA impacts from heavy rain and winds to MKC and IXD between 00-03z.

At MCI and STJ, continued with PROB30 groups starting around 01-02z through 06-08z for more impactful TSRA. Depending on how short-term model guidance trends, TEMPO TSRA impacts could be introduced at MCI and STJ with future forecast packages.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.