textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog and mist will persist across eastern Kansas and western Missouri through this morning. A dense fog advisory is in effect.

- Warm and dry weather will continue through Saturday.

- Much colder temperatures are expected to return to the region Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

H5 ridge axis continues to shift eastward, with several small vorticity enhancements riding through the flow. Area of dAVA has been occurring in the Upper Midwest, which has allowed a surface anticyclone to develop and is attempting to move southward toward the area. Another area of dAVA is occurring over the Gulf Region, which has developed a broad surface anticyclone. Upstream over the Rockies, a few disturbances have developed at H7 and H85, with dCVA strong enough to prompt the development a modest surface low, currently positioned over Central Oklahoma. This has kept surface flow southerly, providing efficient transport of moisture from the Gulf region. The leading edge of this warm front sits southward of the Hwy. 50 corridor as of 21z as with the developing low over the south-central Plains.

Wednesday, weak mid-level disturbances continue to ride through the ridge pattern, which will maintain a weak low from the Front Range into the Central Plains between the surface and roughly 700mb level. The lack of stronger steering flow for this system, along with the strong anticyclone over the Gulf Region will prevent substantial eastward progress of the surface cyclone. Somewhat stronger southerly flow will start push the warm front north of Interstate 70 on Wednesday, and this will occur in an area of surface troughing that extends eastward from the central Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley. With increasing moisture transport, there are few potential outcomes for Wednesday morning across the forecast area. With 12z model runs, moisture depth through the boundary layer has increased, which is suggesting the potential for drizzle through Wednesday morning. HREF maximum QPF does have a couple hundredths of an inch, but there are several CAMs that remain completely dry with respect to precipitation. The other outcome, could be another foggy morning. Winds will be slightly stronger, in the 5-6kt range, which may prevent the fog from being as dense as it was this morning. However, there will be an extra supply of moisture. If drizzle occurs, this would hinder fog, though the drizzle itself could reduce visibility. It is also possible to have period of drizzle, that then adds more moisture to the boundary layer, than leads to fog after the drizzle is over. We did assess the need for a Dense Fog Advisory for Wednesday morning, but current probabilities for visibility less than 1/2 mile were only around 20 to 30 percent. Probabilities for less than 2 miles though were upwards of 80 percent. Due to the signal for drizzle potential and winds remaining slightly above 5 kts, will hold off from issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for now. But trends will need to be closely monitored through the evening and overnight hours. Once the warm front gets north of Hwy. 36, the drizzle potential is expected to end. The main question then becomes how much lingering cloud cover is present, and does a large amount of moisture get trapped in some kind of inversion layer. This will have some impact on temperatures for Wednesday afternoon, and may result in the warm up being largely driven by WAA only, with limited insolation. Due to the cloud cover, progged afternoon high temps for Wednesday are a couple of degrees lower than previous forecast. However, signal for above normal temperatures, and perhaps near daily records are still possible, with NBM and other ensemble probabilities favoring mid 60s for most of the area. Parts of Missouri adjacent to the Iowa state line my struggle to hit the 60 degree mark.

Thursday, PV anomaly over the Pacific shifts eastward and promotes H5 troughing along the western CONUS, and sends a few vort maxima into the Rockies. This may attempt to strengthen the low over the Central Plains, and may stall the warm front across northern Missouri. There is a decent amount of spread amongst model guidance in how this system begins to move, along with how far south the front may move back southward, and also the degree of isentropic ascent into the warm sector. Overcast cloud cover is becoming more likely, just seeing how much moisture transport has occurred already with this pattern developing. This adds some complexity to the Christmas Day temperature forecast. For areas just north of Hwy. 36 and southward, temperatures are still expected to be in the lower to mid 60s (areas immediately along the IA-MO stateline may be quite a bit cooler depending on where the warm front sets up). The chances of hitting the 70F degree mark though are more in question, and probabilities have slightly decreased. Areas well south of Hwy. 50 may still have a chance of hitting 70 degrees. Regardless, still expecting temperatures considerably above normal, and still cannot completely rule out some stations setting their daily record. However the temperature trends may rely largely on WAA, as insolation could be very hard to come by.

By Friday, mid-level flow increases and begins to move the low across the area, and slowly works to drag a cold front across the Plains. 900mb to 700mb flow becomes more southwesterly as this pattern finally progresses, which will bring in drier air above the surface. Even though there may be better kinematic lift available, the moisture content needed to generate widespread rain showers may be lacking from Central Missouri into the Central Kansas. That moisture will be more readily available from eastern Missouri into the Ohio River Valley. As this occurs, most of the forecast area remains in the warm sector through Saturday. The first boundary that moves through will have more notable moisture discontinuity and gradient than temperature, but then by Sunday evening, strong closed low system tracks across the Great Lakes Region, but broad northwesterly flow from western Canada into the Central CONUS pushes a strong anticyclone and polar airmass through, that will drop temperatures back to around or even below end of December normal temperatures. Although there will likely be strong convergence as this moves through, the better deep moisture content continues to be progged east of the forecast area. Ensemble probabilities for detectable precipitation west of Hwy. 63 remain below 15 percent, but increase as you move toward the Ohio River Valley or Great Lakes Region. Will need to continue to monitor for any westward shift in this system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Challenging TAF forecast for the next 24 hours, as low clouds and fog will wax and wane across the region. An area of dense fog is developing in much of eastern Kansas and far west-central Missouri, with VLIFR conditions expected at IXD most of the night (75 percent chance). VFR/MVFR at MCI/MKC will gradually lower to IFR or worse between 06z and 12z (70 percent chance), with potential for at least quarter-mile fog and or 100-200 ft ceilings around 12z to 14z (about a 30 percent chance). Locally dense fog at STJ is possible after 09z and continuing off and on through 14z before improving (50 percent chance). After fog improves by 15z or so, low ceilings will also gradually improve, but confidence in timing is very low. Currently have IFR through about 18z and then about a 3-hour period of MVFR before VFR becomes prevalent for the late afternoon and evening. Restrictions are expected to return after 03z Thursday, but confidence is low on coverage of fog versus low stratus. Winds will be somewhat variable and generally under 10 kt through the 24-hour forecast. Expect several TAF amendments through the night and into the morning Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24: KMCI: 72/2021 KSTJ: 69/2021

December 25: KMCI: 67/1922 KSTJ: 65/2019

December 26: KMCI: 66/2008 KSTJ: 65/2008

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 25: KMCI: 53/1936 KSTJ: 51/1936

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ028>031- 037>039-043>046-053-054. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ057-060- 103>105.