textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Active weather pattern continues into early next week.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight, primarily across NE Kansas into NW Missouri.

- Marginal risk for strong to severe storms on Saturday and Sunday, once again primarily for Northern Missouri.

- Best chance for severe weather comes Monday night into Tuesday morning. All severe hazards will be possible. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible.

- Chances for strong to severe storms may linger into Tuesday.

- Anomalously mild temperatures are possible through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Weak MCV across southern Missouri leading to some very light rain showers south of highway 50. Heat and humidity have increased today with southerly flow leading to increasing moisture from the Gulf. Storms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska this evening, building southeast and weakening in time as storms work into weaker shear/instability. Greatest chance for a severe storm will be across northwestern Missouri, where storms would be capable of straight line winds and possibly large hail. CAMs have been trending slower with the evolution of storms, and the 18Z HRRR has suggested storms may struggle building south away from the boundary. The northern edge of 30-40 knot low level jet across the central into southern plains is in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor, and the 18Z HRRR suggests storms may try to develop in the early morning hours on Saturday if the MCS fails to push south.

NAM_NEST, HRRR, RRFS and RAP suggest elevated showers and thunderstorms may linger Saturday in weakly capped environment dominated by warm air advection on Saturday, potentially keeping temperatures down a bit. Have dropped forecast highs south of I-70 closer to the 25th percentile of model guidance.

Shortwave is expected to make it's way across KS tomorrow, potentially providing enough lift for redevelopment of storms in the evening hours. With a fair amount of clearing, could see surface based CAPE values approach 2500 J/kg, but if clouds hang around, may only see CAPE values approach 1500 J/kg. 30+ knots of 0-6 km shear is largely confined to areas north I-70, which aligns with the marginal/slight day 2 outlook. If storms are able to develop, could once again see a few storms capable of large hail/damaging winds.

Unstable atmosphere remains across the region on Sunday, but shortwaves appear to be largely focused farther north across Nebraska and Iowa. Model soundings suggest the potential for stratus on Sunday below strong capping inversion, potentially limiting surface warming. High temperatures in NBM blend/forecast may be a bit too warm if this occurs.

Still a fair amount of model discrepancy on the timing of cold front pushing south Monday into Tuesday. When the front works through, this still appears to be the best chance for widespread severe weather- with all hazards possible. Precipitable water potentially surges to near 1.50" ahead of the front, and with deep warm cloud depths, could see efficient rainfall and the potential of flash flooding. Temperatures behind the front are expected to be cooler with more stable conditions through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 653 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue along a line from KSTJ SE through KBUM. These storms will continue to slowly move eastward through the night. Behind this area of storms, VFR conditions return and persist through the overnight. Additional SHRA/TSRA development is expected around 09-10Z mainly south of the MO River. These storms should move out of the area by 12-14Z Saturday. Warm and gusty conditions return during the daytime hours Saturday. Gusts around 20-30 knots are expected.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.