textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Expansive rain expected Thursday night continuing through Friday becoming more scattered during the evening. Localized heavy rainfall is possible which may result in flooding.

- Heat and humidity return this weekend through much of next week. Heat index values of 105-110 anticipated Saturday (south of the MO River) and Sunday (area wide).

- More hazardous heat is possible throughout next week; however, potential convective activity may tamper with heat expectations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

A heavily moisture ladened air mass dominates the region with CAM analysis showing PWAT values around 2 inches across the Kansas and western Missouri River Valleys. A complex of showers and thunderstorms across central KS are expected to continue moving eastward toward the region through the overnight. The 850mb LLJ is forecasted to expand northward through the overnight accelerating southerly flow across the low level. This combined with isentropic ascent across the meso warm sector and a passing upper level shortwave results in precipitation expanding northward through the overnight enveloping much of the western portions of the coverage area by sunrise. Meso-analystics continue to show a less than favorable convective environment across a geographic scale with limited instability, lowering bulk shear, and minimized lapse rates; however, model vertical profiles paint a slightly different picture. Most model soundings show a vertical plot of temperature and dew point, in that the lines are more or less vertical. This is likely a result of consistent warm air (and moisture) advection into the region negating the low level effects of nocturnal cooling. However, there is also a combination of enough warm air and moisture advection across several layers of the atmosphere while also not being enough to create either surface instability or upper level capping. This creates a profile with limited CAPE and ambient vertical motion. However, this also presents an environment that is capable of being manipulated by relatively small factors. Rain cooled air aloft, an enhanced area of warm air below, for example could alter the profile enough to keep convective storms going or dissipate them. Consensus leans towards CVA from the upper level wave tapping into the saturated vertical column creating just enough lift to generate some showers and isolated thunderstorms. The primary uncertainty will be how the approaching thunderstorms complex to the west will manifest the environment. Likely we will see a mixed combination of scattered showers and more robust thunderstorms. It is not likely that storms will alter the ambient environment significantly enough to create deep convection or manifest severe hail or damaging winds, but with the high PWATs mentioned earlier, heavy rainfall remains the primary concern.

Rain moves in before sunrise Friday and sticks around through much of the daytime hours. Once rain moves out Friday night, ridging begins to dominate the weather pattern once again bringing the potential for dangerous heat and humidity across the region. Ensemble guidance for Saturday shows a 60-80 percent chance of 105F+ heat indices south of the MO River. This is likely due in part to resident saturation from Friday's rainfall; so therein lies some uncertainty in peak heat potential as precipitation could affect the temperature outlook. Sunday, the heat expands with 50-60 percent chances of 105F+ across the area and 30-40 percent chances of exceeding 110F. Looking into Monday and beyond becomes a little more uncertain as long range guidance favors centering the ridge over the eastern Rockies which put our region right in the path of ridge running overnight thunderstorm complexes which are notorious for messing with hazardous heat expectations. If storms do pass over, rain and residual cloud cover could taper heat; however, if not, hazardous heat becomes much more likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Present weather at all terminals beginning to cause flight impacts this morning, with sites reporting lowering cloud ceilings and visibilities as -SHRA passes through. Expecting SHRA to continue through the day today, with cloud ceilings continuing to lower to MVFR by 14-16z and IFR around 17-18z. IFR ceilings expected to persist for a few hours, before lifting around 21-23z. A reduction in visibility with heavier rain showers is anticipated, so have captured that with prevailing SHRA lines. -TSRA continues to be possible, especially with any instability that is able to generate during the day. However, exact timing and placement of -TSRA is not high at this time, so have left it out of this issuance with the idea that amendments may be needed to properly capture trends during the day. Winds generally remaining southeasterly through the period around 5-10 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.