textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon into early tonight, mainly near and south of I-70. Some storms could produce torrential downpours and isolated flash flooding.

- Dangerous heat and humidity is forecast Monday into Tuesday. A Heat Advisory is now in effect Monday afternoon for all the region, and for northern sections of southwest MO and southeast KS on Tuesday.

- A frontal boundary will bring a chance of thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday in far north and northeast MO.

- Additional chances for widespread thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday into Friday, along with cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Early this afternoon, convection is firing along a boundary extending from west to east near the Missouri River. This boundary is associated with low pressure moving across the northeast CONUS. With PWAT values around 2.0" and an very unstable, uncapped (but also unsheared), slow moving storms capable of producing 1-2" per hour rainfall rates will be the main concern through late this afternoon. Isolated pockets of flash flooding are possible as result. The lack of shear should preclude any severe risk, but gusty winds of 30-40 mph are possible from any storm that collapses.

Once the storms wind down tonight, the expansive ridging across the southwest CONUS will briefly expand back over the region Monday into Tuesday. This will cause the frontal boundary to retreat to the NE. With high temperatures forecast to reach the lower to middle 90s and dew point temperatures in the lower to middle 70s, most everywhere in the forecast area should see peak heat index values of 105-110. Opted to expand the Heat Advisory to the entire forecast area for Monday after collaboration with neighboring offices.

On Tuesday, the ridge will retreat to the west again, but very gradually. This will allow the frontal boundary to again push into northern MO. Storms will fire along this boundary Monday night into Tuesday morning, impacting parts of far northern and northeast MO. SPC has this area in a Marginal Risk, but it does appear the most favorable shear values will stay north of the area in Iowa. Additionally, the late night timing could limit instability. If severe storms do form, isolated damaging wind gusts would be the main threat.

While there is still some uncertainty in how quickly the frontal boundary will move through the forecast area Tuesday, ensemble guidance shows this front not reaching locations south of the Missouri River/US 50 until Tuesday evening. This will allow for heat index values to again reach 105-110 Tuesday afternoon, so opted to extend the Heat Advisory for these areas until 7 PM Tuesday.

For the middle to latter half of next week, the ridging will finally retreat well to our west, allowing the region to come under a NW flow baroclinic zone. This will allow temperature and humidity to cool back to more comfortable levels. Additionally, within the northwest flow regime, MCS activity may impact the area. Ensemble guidance is keying in on two periods, late Wednesday night into Thursday morning and again Thursday evening into Friday morning. Depending on how organized these storm complexes are, we will need to watch for the potential of severe thunderstorms.

One last note on the forecast, model guidance is showing the shift to NW flow flow aloft will allow plentiful amounts of high-level wildfire smoke to move into the area beginning Tuesday. At this time, the smoke looks to stay suspended well above the ground, but skies will become noticeably hazy

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Convection is beginning to fire along a boundary extending from LWC to OJC to DMO. Expecting scattered to numerous storm coverage this afternoon, especially invof IXD and MKC, where TEMPO groups for TSRA have been added for the 18-22z window. At MCI and STJ, coverage will be more isolated to widely scattered, so have stuck with a PROB30 group at between 18-24z at MCI and omitted precipitation at STJ for now. Winds will be light and variable this afternoon, but most frequently from the E or NE. Convection will wane coverage tonight, with winds gradually becoming light from the SE and S by Monday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>039. Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102>105. Heat Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057- 060.