textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- The pattern remains active with daily chances for rain through Monday

- Rain/snow mix possible Saturday night into Sunday morning

- Near-freezing morning temperatures expected Sunday through Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A surface front that brought us a few rounds of significant severe weather last night and this morning will continue its track to the east. Westerly winds on the backside of the front will allow us to warm up to the 60s-70s. The associated surface low to north over IA has yielded a strengthened pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions expected to last through the evening. The HRRR hints at possible spotty, elevated showers north of I-70 after sunset, however decided to leave the forecast dry due to low confidence.

A mid to upper level trough in the western US will keep our flow aloft out of the southwest. Multiple shortwaves are expected to eject out of this system giving us multiple chances for rain through Monday. Thursday evening a surface low tracks out of TX to the northeast towards the area resulting in a chance for showers across the area with the brunt of the precipitation staying south of I-70. Weak CAPE and stable lapse rates suggest thunderstorms are less likely. Strong bulk shear values ranging from 60-80 kts suggest any potential convective development may be sheared apart resulting in rather pulse, short-lived convection. Showers are expected to move out of the area early Friday morning. Another wave moves through Friday afternoon resulting in another round of precipitation. Thunderstorms again do not look promising even for the afternoon given the weak thermodynamic profiles.

A surface high to the northwest begins to usher in a cold air mass early Saturday morning as winds shift to the north. This will result in near or just below freezing low temperatures Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Another wave moves through giving us a potential for a light rain/snow mix early Sunday morning. The NBM gives a 15%- 30% chance for a tenth of an inch of snow mainly for western MO. Chances reduce to 15% when the accumulations are raised to half an inch. Better chances for accumulations look to remain farther west over central and eastern KS. The mid to upper level trough finally rejoins the flow with the help of a ridge on Sunday. Even though this wave moves out, another trough to the northeast delivers rain/snow chances again, but deterministic models keep precip just to the northeast of the area for Monday. The next chance for precip comes Wednesday with a dry second half of the week following after as mid to upper level ridging builds into the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Much of the TAF period will be highlighted by shifting winds and VFR conditions. Winds will eventually settle out of the SE by around/after 18z Thursday, predominantly staying under 10kts. Ceilings will also be OVC and lowering at this time, but remain VFR. MVFR ceilings may creep in from the south toward the latter portions of the period, but have kept low VFR at this point with limited confidence in the MVFR timing.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.