textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected early this morning. Isolated precipitation chances continue through the day along and west of the I-35/I-49 corridors.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms expected overnight (Thu into Fri) as a thunderstorm complex moves through the area. Heavy downpours and gusty winds are expected; however, storms are expected to move through the area fairly quickly exiting just after 8am.

- Additional showers and storms are possible Friday evening south of I-70. There is a potential that a few of these storms may be strong to severe; however, this is highly conditional on activity Friday morning.

- Substantially cooler conditions expected Saturday with highs in the low to mid 80s forecasted. Temperatures warm back into the 90s next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Similar programming to last night for the weather pattern. A surface high over northern IL has advanced a little further south and a bit further west. Likewise, the H500 high over NM continues to send ridge running shortwaves around the system. Once again, these shortwaves trigger showers and thunderstorms across the Sand Hills and the foothills of the Rockies. Additional convection is anticipated across central and eastern KS through the overnight. Like Wednesday morning, the surface high is expected to limit the ability for showers and storms to migrate eastward. Expectation are for storms to approach far eastern KS before weakening as they approach the MO/KS state line. A few sprinkles and showers are expected to make it into the I-29/I-49 corridors through the early morning.

Lee cyclogenesis across western KS catalyzed by a notable upper level shortwave will be the primary influence of our weather through the day. Broad scale southerly flow once again advects warm air and moisture into the region. CAMs show a combination of turbulent surface convergence (largely due to some variability in low level winds), isentropic ascent, and some mesoscale upper level lift from smaller H500 perturbations. This keeps isolated chances for showers and storms around through much of the day for places west of the I- 35/I-49 corridors. Most likely we will see something similar to yesterday where isolated to scattered light showers move through the area through the daytime hours.

Through Thursday afternoon, another lee cyclone develops across NW Nebraska in the more progressive flow across the Upper Midwest. A cold front extends from this system and the frontogenetic energy helps enhance the smaller wave anticipated over eastern KS. Low level southerly flow accelerates advecting more warm air and moisture into the area ahead of the systems arrival. The complex of showers and thunderstorms is expected to work its way into the region after midnight. Guidance continues to maintain fairly progressive movement of the thunderstorm complex with it exiting the region just past 8am. Elevated dew points and PWATs around 2 inches continue to favor an environment for torrential downpours; however, the progressive movement of the storms does limit several hydrological concerns. The trade off is the faster storm motions bring in the potential for damaging winds. The convective environment shows just enough shear and instability to be a bit concerned for an isolated strong to severe storm with the most likely hazard being damaging wind gusts.

Unfortunately, the passing front does not do too much to curtail heat for the day Friday. Cyclogenesis persists across the I-80 corridor and turns winds westerly advecting hot air from the foothills of the Rockies into the area. Temperatures along and south of I-70 rise into the 90s. Those north of the MO River will see a more NW flow of the winds which lowers highs into the mid to upper 80s across far northern MO. Additional showers and storms are possible Friday afternoon as a synoptic scale front follows behind the overnight system. Warm air advection from the west looks to destabilize the region and lead to the development of additional showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. Depending on how much the atmosphere is able to recharge, some robust convection may develop. The likely area for these potentially stronger storms is across SW and Central MO. It is plausible for some strong to severe storms with heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail being the likely hazards. Behind the synoptic front, temperatures fall substantially with highs Saturday expected to be in the low to mid 80s.

The extended forecast continues to show eventual breakdown of the large H500 ridge over the SW CONUS. This opens up the pattern to potentially become a little more active next week as the more active zonal flow which has resided across the northern CONUS for the past several days is able to progress further into the interior CONUS. Likewise, southerly flow reopens and sends temperatures back upward into the 90s next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected for much of the period. SCT to BKN clouds linger through the period. Isolated SHRA is possible through the overnight along and west of the MO/KS state line. Additional isolated SHRA is possible towards midday. More substantial SHRA/TSRA is expected just beyond the period. Winds persist out of the SE through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.