textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures to continue through the weekend with ever warmer temperatures to start next week.

- Next chance for rain arrives Tuesday and linger with lingering precipitation chances into late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Upper-level ridging looks to persist over the coming days as a few fronts are set to move through the area over the weekend. Today, many locations saw temperatures in the upper 40s, with some points managing to creep up into the low and mid 50s. Tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler as a weak surface cold front pushes south in the morning. Areas north of Highway 36 could see temperatures around 10 degrees cooler than Thursday, though these temperatures are still 5-10 degrees above normal for early February. Some low-level clouds may build in from the north with this initial cold frontal push before widespread clearing by late afternoon. Friday will be on the breezy side with sustained winds on the range of 10-15 mph and gusts around 25-30 mph.

Leeside troughing off of the Rockies will deepen late Friday and begin to propagate east the following morning. This trough and associated warm front is unlikely to have a notable impact on daytime high temperatures on Saturday as current guidance agrees that the warm front is only expected to reach the KS/MO border late Saturday night and very early Saturday morning. Consequently, maximum temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be on the cooler side but still above average. Strong warm air advection will envelop the entire CWA early Sunday morning, setting the stage for much warmer (and potentially record-breaking) temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Locations south of I-70 may be able to poke up into the low 60s on Sunday, but areas further north will likely need to wait until Monday to see 60 degree temperatures. Monday has the greatest record-breaking temperature potential with some points potentially nearing or reaching 70 degrees, though the greatest chances for such warmth remain west of I-35 and south of I-70. For perspective, Rosecrans Memorial Airport in St. Joseph has a record high temperature of 64F for Feb. 9 and this was set back in 1932...current probabilities for temperatures of 65F or greater in the vicinity of the airport for Monday are around 55%.

Rain chances return late Tuesday afternoon and evening next week as we begin to fall out of the ridging regime and into a more active weather pattern. A cold front is anticipated to move in from the northwest Tuesday afternoon and evening, interacting with the warmer air mass from the weekend. The combination of lift and moisture looks best south of I-70, so rain potential looks greatest in that corridor. The potential for precipitation continues over the next few days, though probabilities remain low. With minimum temperatures around freezing late next week, PoPs will need to be closely monitored and p-type considerations made.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals under clear skies with light WSW winds. A cold front will descend north to south through the region by around 11z to 12z Friday morning, turning winds out of the NNW with sustained winds up to 12 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Gusts should begin to slacken by early afternoon, with winds turning more northerly and becoming light (10 knots or less with no gusts) by late Friday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.