textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Saturday night's storm track remains largely north of the forecast areas. Precipitation possible north of HWY-36 with the most favorable areas for winter impacts near northeast MO.

- Temperatures look to warm back above normal early next week before another system passes by kicking them back toward seasonal expectations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A fairly quiet start to the weekend anticipated as conditions remain benign for most areas this morning into the evening. With the latent moisture from the recent snow melt, there is the potential for patchy fog across the region. The developing southerly flow this morning may also aid in drawing what is a saturated airmass from Oklahoma, Kansas and southern Missouri northward into central Missouri. Observations as 08Z are varying from 3-5 sm across southern Missouri into southeast KS, but CAM trends suggest this may become more dense and build north into Bates, Lynn and Henry counties. If dense fog is able to develop, it will likely hang tough through much of the morning hours with the low sun angle this time of year. We will be monitoring these counties closely for the potential for a dense fog advisory. There may be patchy fog elsewhere in low lying areas, but expectations are this fog may not become widespread enough to warrant a headline farther north. As for high temperatures today, locations north of HWY-36 will range in the low to upper 30s while areas south of HWY-36 range from upper 30s to upper 40s. These temperature spreads can be attributed to the warm front lifting north toward the MO/IA border. Also, there is some uncertainty with temperatures given the fog impacts as well as how far north the warm front lifts. Speaking of the warm front, as we enter the afternoon/evening hours, a H500 shortwave will push a surface low and warm front towards the MO/IA border, delivering chances for a variety of precip types going into the predawn hours of Sunday. Models continue to struggle to agree on precip type ranging from light rain to light snow and even a few pockets of light freezing rain.

Model soundings display an unsaturated warm nose which, depending on surface temperatures, could lead to sprinkles/freezing rain. However, with surface temperatures expected to be within a degree of freezing, there is the potential that any freezing rain would be self limiting with latent heat release. As the warm nose evaporatively cools, a transition to light snow is possible, but the dendritic growth zone dries out just as quick transitioning the favored precipitation type to drizzle. One thing models do agree on, is the placement for the most favorable location for the precip (remaining north of HWY-36). The past few HREF model runs have trended the best chances for precip farther north, closer to the MO/IA border as that is where the better forcing will be. Guidance suggests that the system will be filling as it approaches/moves through our area suggesting precip chances will weaken going into early Sunday morning. Given the uncertainty with precip type and amounts, decided to go without a headline for now, but will need to monitor for the potential for winter precip tonight. Precip chances begin to taper off by the dawn hours of Sunday.

As a surface high descends from Canada on the backside of the system, increased northerly windflow (CAA) will allow temperatures to be much cooler on Sunday than today. Highs for Sunday will range in the low 20s to upper 30s. Monday morning lows range from the single digits to upper teens across the area with the coldest temperatures likely in northern/northeastern MO. Highs for Monday range around the upper 20s to low 40s. Conditions warm up closer to seasonal averages on Tuesday as winds shift out of the south out ahead of an approaching system. A mid to upper level trough will sink to the southeast out of the northern Great Plains pushing a surface low and partnering cold front to the north of the area over MN approaching mid-next week. For now, the best precip chances remain to our north with a few areas near the MO/IA border seeing some low-end (below 20%) chances. Another system moves quickly on its heels for Thursday, bringing much better precip chances (according to the GFS), however uncertainty exists being this far out. Temperatures trend cooler for the second half of next week as multiple troughs keep conditions below seasonal averages.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Conditions ranging from VFR to LIFR with patches of light to dense fog extending across the area. This fog is anticipated to linger into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Winds will remain out of the south/southeast around 10-13 kts into the evening. During the overnight/predawn hours a cold front will move through the area reorienting our winds out of the north. Wind gusts are expected to increase to around 18-21 kts behind the front. A few models have hinted at the possibility of low ceilings developing with the frontal passage.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.