textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern across the region through the weekend and into early next week.

* Chances for strong to severe storms may be seen early into middle of next week, but uncertainty remains on the higher end.

* With numerous chances for rain into/through early-middle of next week, river and areal flooding may be realized across portions of the area (highly dependent on where areas of heavier rainfall occur/overlap over the coming days).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Current 500-hPa analysis shows a trough positioned over the West Coast, ridging over the Rockies, and a low amplitude trough over eastern Canada. Mainly zonal flow is present over our area at this time (2pm CDT). At the surface, a stationary front is positioned along the I-44 corridor across southern MO. This front has been the focus of shower development through the morning and will continue to produce showers this afternoon, however, these showers should stay south of the area. With the whole CWA north of the front and shrouded in thick clouds, temperatures have been held in the low-to-mid 50s.

Tonight, the ridging over the Rockies is expected to shift east bringing southerly flow back to the area with the front expected to lift north across the CWA as a warm front. This will bring WAA induced showers through the morning. Some of the showers may produce locally heavy rainfall, which could cause some minor flooding concerns, particularly in areas that saw 1-2" of rain Thursday night into Friday morning, however, the threat for widespread flooding will be low. Precipitation could start as early as 4am CDT across the southern portion of the area, spreading north through the morning. After showers exit to the northeast tomorrow afternoon, the area should experience a few hours of dry weather with highs climbing into the mid-to- upper 70s. Despite some instability being present Saturday afternoon, the ridge moving overhead will bring synoptic scale sinking motion and should inhibit any convection from forming. The best chance for afternoon storms and potential severe weather should remain west of the area.

The dry weather will not be long-lived, however, as another round of WAA induced showers are expected (80-90%) Sunday morning as the ridge continues propagating eastward and a shortwave moves through the pattern. Showers and storms are expected to persist through much of the day Sunday, however, the severe threat should remain low through the weekend.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

By Monday, another trough will begin to eject from the Rockies, inciting surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. The area will be positioned in a broad open warm sector, which creates a concern for severe weather potential. Model guidance depicts 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE in conjunction with 35-40 kts of deep layer shear, however, soundings shows a stout cap in place through the afternoon and into the evening, which has reduced concern about severe weather potential on Monday.

Tuesday looks like a remarkably similar setup to Monday, however, model soundings indicate that the cap will erode through the afternoon. While many details have yet to be resolved, such as the track and timing of the trough and low pressure system, Tuesday looks like a day to keep an eye on for potential severe weather.

Model guidance begins to diverge by Wednesday with the GEFS and GFS showing a weaker and faster moving trough progression than the ECMWF and Canadian models and ensembles. If the ECMWF and Canadian solution were to play out then Wednesday would also be a day to keep and eye on for potential severe weather before a cold front passes Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS solution would result in a dry day on Wednesday, with little concern for storms given the frontal passage Tuesday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Reduced visibility and IFR/LIFR CIGs should improve through the early afternoon with MVFR CIGs prevailing at KMCI, KMKC, and KSTJ. KIXD will likely remain in IFR/LIFR conditions through the full TAF period. Another round of showers are expected to move into the area early tomorrow morning resulting in IFR/LIFR CIGs and reduced visibility at all four terminals. Showers should end by mid-morning, however, IFR CIGs will remain. CIGs will improve through the day tomorrow and may even reach MVFR by 18Z, but confidence in that happening is low as of now. Winds will remain light through the TAF period while starting northeasterly before turning easterly and eventually southeasterly.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.