textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures remain expected through the forecast period. - Heat Advisory for much of the area through at least Wednesday - Highs in the mid 90s to low 100s - Heat index values in the 100 to 105 range - Overnight lows warm in the mid 70s to lower 80s

- Slight chance (< 20%) of storms across far northern Missouri Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

It is going to sound like a broken record for a while ... but the main concern is and will continue to be prolonged hot / well above normal temperatures across the area. :shrug:

Briefly looking bigger picture, it is a fairly active pattern across the CONUS and Canada as a cutoff low drifts eastward along the southern Canadian Plains and a leading trough, cutoff low digs down along British Columbia coast and into the PNW, and monsoon activity in the SW. It just is not active over our immediate area given the influence of a sizable area of surface to mid-level high pressure remains situated over the Southern Plains and eastward into the Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valley areas. Pattern evolution does not favor relief for the area with this ridge gradually drifting eastward through mid-late week before retrograding late week and through the weekend. The retrograde, and amplification, will be in response to cutoff lows dropping into northern New England and down along the PNW coast respectively, creating an Omega Block look to the pattern. All of this to say, hot and dry remains favored through the going 7-day forecast.

Diving into a bit more detail, there are a few things to note with regards to peak heat (and heat index), heat headlines, and any potential for even brief relief. To begin though, NBM and LREF probabilities continue to drive home the general prolonged heat confidence. NBM probabilities of MaxT >95 deg F tend to range from 60 to 90+ percent in areas west of I-35 and south of Highway 36 through Friday. LREF probabilities of Heat Index >100 deg F are a little more subdued initially with probabilities widely around 40 percent today and Tuesday, but observations from yesterday suggest LREF may be a bit conservative. Wednesday through the end of the week LREF probabilities of heat index >100 deg F noticeably increase to >50-70 percent across much of the area, in response to signaled gradual dew point increases given the prolonged S/SW near-surface fetch. Continued forecast overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s likely limit heat relief, especially in the warmer heat islands/urban cores. NBM/LREF bolster that confidence as well with probabilities of overnight lows >75 deg F >70-90 percent for much of the area into the weekend. Again, this will be especially true in urban areas. A couple of quick caveats or things to watch for. Areas on the current periphery (or ring of fire as you will) of the mid- level ridge may see brief relief from showers/convection that are able to work far enough south. The most likely time frame for this looks to be Wednesday night into early Thursday. Then late week into the weekend as the ridge retrogrades west and amplifies, there are suggestions that it retreats far enough west that chances for showers/storms could be seen as shortwaves come down the eastern side of the ridge.

Regarding the Heat Advisory itself, have extended the headline in time through Friday evening given confidence in prolonged heat as noted above and the potential for late week to be the hottest/most uncomfortable with regards to heat index.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. Remnant cloud cover will continue to drift through the area with more clearing through the afternoon and evening. Winds expected to shift from the SW this afternoon to the S/SSW this evening and overnight, then returning to the SW daytime Tuesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ003>008-012>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.