textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow is tapering off, but roadways have become quite slick. As temperatures continue to fall, roadways will likely remain problematic through the overnight hours into the Monday morning commute.

- High winds continue, but should begin to relax a bit by early Monday morning. NW wind gusts up to 30 to 35 mph will likely continue through Monday afternoon15, however.

- Bitterly cold wind chills are expected tonight into Monday morning, with values ranging from as cold as 15 below zero near the Iowa border to a few degrees below zero across the KC metro.

- Warming trend begins on Tuesday, with well above normal temperatures arriving by Wednesday.

- High temperatures in the 80s are probable for Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a longwave trough across the central CONUS, digging as far south as south central Texas. The attendant surface low has made it as far east as south of Chicago, with the cold front trailing to the southwest through the Missouri Bootheel, eastern Arkansas, and eventually into east Texas. Snow continues to fall across the region in the wraparound of the surface low, and is leading to increased issues on the roadways as temperatures continue to fall. Strong NW winds continue, with gusts up to 45 to 50 mph, leading to reduced visibility where snow is still falling. Snow will end from west to east within the next few hours as the surface low continues to move northeast into southern Michigan, with skies clearing from west to east by early Monday morning. Temperatures will continue to fall overnight, with morning lows ranging from the high single digits to the teens. Roadways have become icy, and with temperatures continuing to fall, road conditions will likely remain problematic through tonight into Monday morning. While winds will begin to slacken a bit by the overnight period, gusts up to 30 to 35 mph should continue into the morning hours, allowing for wind chills to drop below zero CWA wide, with wind chills as cold as negative 15 toward the Iowa border.

By Monday afternoon, a closed ~512 dam H5 low is progged to be centered over northern Lake Michigan, with a very highly amplified long wave trough over the east central CONUS. Our CWA should be located on the back side of this trough, with gusty NW winds and ample CAA continuing. High temperatures should remain at or below freezing for Monday, ranging from the mid 20s across NE Missouri to the lower 30s elsewhere. RH is likely to drop into the lower 20 percent range by Monday afternoon, and with NW Winds gusting to 30 mph, this in theory would yield elevated fire weather conditions, but with cold temperatures and at least a little bit of snow cover, this should keep fire weather concerns tempered.

Mid/upper ridging begins to impinge on the area from the west on Tuesday, warming temps into the 40s for Tuesday afternoon for most locations. A clipper system translating across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday night could bring some light snow across far NE Missouri, with the most recent NBM giving a 60% chance for Kirksville to receive at least a trace of snowfall (13% chance for at least 1"). Better chances for more appreciable snowfall should stay northeast of our CWA across eastern Iowa into NW Illinois.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Mid/upper ridging builds in further on Wednesday, warming temps into the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Thursday, models suggest a 594 dam H5 high developing across the Desert Southwest, with attendant stout ridging in place across the western half of the CONUS. This will send mid level heights even higher on Thursday, allowing for temperatures to warm mid to upper 70s. This ridge remains locked into place as we head into Friday, with highs in the low to mid 80s possible. Dry conditions are likely for Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty NW winds winds will gradually weaken through the forecast period. MVFR CIGs will clear the TAF sites around 16/08Z (+/- 1 hr). Blowing snow may linger through 09Z at KSTJ. High confidence in VFR conditions to prevail at all TAF sites after 16/10Z, and all sites farther east after 16/15Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ001- 002-011-012-020-028. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001-002-011- 012-020-028. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ025-029>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT early this morning for MOZ003>008-013>017-021>024. KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-102>105. High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for KSZ025- 102-103. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102-103. Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-104- 105.