textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonal to seasonally cool conditions through Sunday - Normal highs in the upper 60s

* Very light rain possible Friday

* Warmer Sunday/Monday with more widespread rain and thunderstorm chances into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A cool to chilly start to the day transitioned to a cool, but mostly quiet, day to this point. A cool frontal boundary has begun to work into Missouri from the NW, and concurrent with diurnal mixing and a mid-level shortwave has begun see an uptick in scattered shower coverage. At this point in time (230pm or so), the first few lightning returns have been noted on GOES and other lightning detection products over far N/NE Missouri. As we work through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening, we should continue to see gradual increase in shower/thunder coverage to the SW. All indications continue to point towards just a couple to maybe a few hundred J/kg CAPE that would yield brief showers and the occasional lightning strike. This activity will drift SE through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening and remain largely transient in nature. Just enough to wet the ground to a handful hundredths of an inch of rain in most cases. Overnight, clearing skies and light winds again yields a night of efficient cooling. Overnight lows may drop into the mid/upper 30s for a large portion of the area, especially north of the Missouri River. This too introduces increased potential for some frost, again especially in low lying and prone areas. A Frost Advisory is not out of the question tonight, but have coordinated with neighbors to withhold for the time being.

Friday is not wholly different than today in that we may see a subtle surface front and low to mid level shortwave that could spark off another round of scattered showers within an environment of a couple hundred CAPE (but likely less than the up to few hundred seen today/Thursday). By this point even drier air will be in place in the lowest levels though, so activity may be largely limited to sprinkles to very light rain. Have coordinated some slight chance PoPs into the grids with neighbors, a nominal change from the dry NBM load. Effectively zero consequence either way. Otherwise expect another day in the low to mid 60s for most. Friday overnight to Saturday morning may be the coldest of nights with yet another efficient cooling setup with clear/clearing skies and light winds as a surface high is expected to drift in. This yields lows approaching the low 40s in NW Missouri, and is the most likely time period for a Frost Advisory or any cold temperature headline.

Through the weekend the upper low/trough over the Northern Great Lakes into Canada will have gradually slid eastward, shifting the mid-upper level flow more northwesterly over the central CONUS. With the aforementioned surface high allowing for the cold start to Saturday, conditions will remain seasonally cool in the 60s. More notable warming returns by Sunday as the surface high departs eastward and more substantial S/SW surface flow returns and pushes highs back into the 70s across the area. An odd 80 or two may be seen into far eastern Kansas/near the Kansas/Missouri border. Another nuisance shortwave may slide into the area within the NW flow Sunday evening/night, resulting in low confidence light rain/rain showers. Confidence in any activity is best over NE Missouri, but much of the area currently appears poised to remain dry.

Into the new work week, flow becomes more zonal in nature over the immediate region as a northern stream shortwave reinforces the general troughing. This will be concurrent with a cutoff mid-upper low working into and through the SW CONUS. These large scale features and associated shortwaves and surface features continue to seek consistent resolution within synoptic deterministic and ensemble guidance. At this point in time, suffice it to say that more significant shower/thunderstorm opportunities are depicted as early as Monday evening through as late as Wednesday evening/night with current greatest confidence in the Monday evening through Tuesday time frames. Temperatures within this window start off warm (70s to low 80s Monday) with the ongoing and continued southerly flow, but become tempered (back into the 60s/low 70s) by frontal passage and widespread precipitation opportunities.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the sites, with one caveat. The trio of metro sites run the potential of seeing a VCTS/VCSH to brief prevailing SHRA/TSRA this afternoon as a weak frontal boundary drops through the area. Confidence is quite low, but enough to have some mention of PROB30 there. Even among the three KC Metro sites, confidence is least up toward KMCI. Otherwise, current S/SSW winds will turn NW with the frontal passage today then go light and variable tonight before reestablishing NW late in the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.