textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, though most areas will stay dry. Localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds up to 50 mph could be possible with the strongest storms.

- Heat and humidity continue for the next several days. Temperatures and heat indices elevate through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Broad ridging overspreads the country aloft, with troughing over the Pacific Northwest and the Northeast, and remnants of a closed low over Texas. A subtle surface trough extends from far southeast South Dakota through Iowa to just north of Maryville MO early this morning, with an even more subtle 300mb wave over the same area. Areas that saw rainfall Thursday afternoon are seeing some fog development early this morning under calm winds and clear skies.

Today: Highs around 90 again this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies and southwesterly winds 10-15 mph. Scattered pop-up showers and storms will be possible again this afternoon, with the subtle convergence along the lingering surface trough and an area of diffluence present in the 700mb flow lending itself to potential convective development. Convective temperatures around 90 degrees should be met this afternoon, acting as another source of potential convective development.

The KTOP 00Z RAOB measured a PWAT of 2.10", and the continued southwesterly flow through the day will maintain around that level of moisture, which will allow any storms that form to be prolific rainfall producers with rainfall rates of 2-3+ inches per hour. The highest winds at any level in the atmosphere are around 15-20kts, so weak steering flow could allow storms to be slow-moving or nearly stationary, with rainfall remaining confined to localized areas. If storms can put out strong enough outflow, additional redevelopment along the outflow could result in training storms, increasing the potential for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns, especially if this overlaps with the areas that saw 2-4" on Thursday. Overall severe weather risk would be low, but dry low-level air could manifest some strong downburst winds up to 50-55 mph as storms collapse.

This Weekend Into Next Week: Ensembles are overall in good agreement in the general synoptic pattern through the weekend into next week, with ridging aloft over the Intermountain West and central CONUS continuing into midweek, but finer details still have some question marks. A shortwave swings south through the Great Lakes region Saturday into Sunday, with an associated cold front clipping the area and increasing PoPs to 20-40% on Saturday afternoon/evening for areas and east of Highway 65. Uncertainty related to temperatures and dewpoints increase on Sunday and Monday as a result of the cold frontal passage, as well as westward extent of impacts to temperatures/dew points. However, overall consensus points towards not much impact, especially further west, with NBM 25th/75th percentile temperature spreads remaining 5 degrees or less on Sunday even in areas with the highest PoPs on Saturday.

Deterministic NBM heat indices for Sunday and Monday come in at or above 105 degrees for areas along the Iowa/Missouri state border and along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor, but LREF probability of heat index >105 degrees maxes out at 25% across the area on Monday. This seems to be because the GEFS members are notably higher on dew points than the other two global ensemble members, with numerous members suggesting dew points as high as 75-80 degrees in the afternoons. These high dew point values seem unlikely to materialize, so holding off on any potential heat headlines for now. However, if confidence in widespread heat indices >105 degrees Sunday and/or Monday increases over subsequent forecast cycles, a Heat Advisory may need to be considered.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Scattered cumulus is expected to develop late this morning, with the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Confidence is too low in thunderstorms at any of the terminals to include even in a prob30 at this time, but may be added in subsequent updates if confidence in occurrence increases above 25% at any one given site. As mixing increases this afternoon, south-southwesterly winds may gust up to 15-20 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.