textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm and breezy conditions Wednesday before rain moves in Wednesday night, kicking off an active weather pattern through the weekend and into early next week.

* Multiple rounds of showers and storms late week into the weekend. Severe threat remains low, but consecutive days of rain could lead to river/areal flood concerns.

* Storms possible again Sunday into the beginning of next week. Some storms could be severe, but uncertainty is high.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Later this evening, a warm front will lift north from southeast Missouri, leading to widespread warm air advection that will become apparent come daytime Wednesday. Most will see temperatures between 70-75F with probabilities of exceeding 70F in the range of 80-100% along and west of I-35 as well as south of US-36. To readers in northeast Missouri, do not fret! Although the probabilities of reaching 70F are lower in the northeastern corner of the CWA, the likelihood of breaking into the upper 60s is still especially high (90-100%)...so warmth for everyone!

South/southwesterly winds will pick up after sunrise on Wednesday, especially in northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri as a surface low positions itself near the Iowa/South Dakota border. North of I-70, sustained winds could hover around 20-25 MPH with occasional gusts up to 35-40 MPH. Breezy conditions are also expected further south though to a lesser degree. Winds will relax around sunset as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Some locations in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri may see rain ahead of the front Wednesday evening before the front slows and stalls over northern Missouri by Thursday morning. Despite this boundary remaining largely stationary, rain chances will continue Thursday as a shortwave attempts to disrupt otherwise quasi-zonal flow. Late Thursday evening and into Friday morning, the front will dive south, again allowing for showers and storms to develop along the front. The severe threat for Thursday and Friday is still lackluster with the best instability and shear well south and west of the CWA, but should a stronger storm develop, it would likely be right along the cold front in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri Thursday evening. In terms of rainfall, there's roughly a 50% chance of receiving at least 1" of rain west of I-29 by Saturday morning, with probabilities falling further south and east. Accumulations could be higher in some locations, but this would depend on where exactly convective precipitation occurs.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 258 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Mid/upper-level ridging will tick up over the Central CONUS as a low- pressure system deepens over southern California as we head into the weekend. The cold front that made its way through the CWA on Friday will stall over the southern third of Missouri, but a shortwave ejected out from the deeper lower pressure system will result in additional rainfall chances on Saturday, especially across Kansas and western Missouri. Later Saturday into Sunday, the boundary trisecting Missouri is progged to surge northward, reintroducing considerable warmth and moisture back into the Central Plains. As has been noted in earlier forecast discussions, signals for strong to severe convection exist in the long term. At the time of writing, SPC has outlined an area of interest on Day 7 (Monday) that includes the entire EAX CWA. Although this is the only day that the CWA is outlooked in the long term, Sunday and Tuesday have also piqued interest as they could be impactful for our area. There are indications of greater instability and deep-layer shear during this three-day stretch that will require a watchful eye, but it is far too early to come down on any specifics. As it stands, there are more questions than answers.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds will increase through overnight hours and become gusty late tonight into tomorrow morning. After sunrise, strong and gusty south winds will develop. Wind gusts of near 30kts are likely and some stronger are possible as well, especially during the morning as mixing deepens into the strong winds aloft and before those stronger winds aloft diminish later in the day.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.