textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area through Thursday night which may lead to heavy rainfall and flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The main change with this forecast package is to shift the axis of heaviest forecast precipitation over the next 48 hours further southward. Consequently, the flood watch has been extended one to two counties south and eastward to cover most the area along and north of the Highway 36 corridor. It is in this area that 2-5" of precipitation is forecast. This flood watch will be in effect through 1am Friday morning.

Early this morning, moisture continues to stream northward into the area on a 40-45kt southwesterly LLJ. This is continuing shower and isolated thunderstorm chances across the area overnight. The LLJ never weakens during the course of the day today and continues to nose into the area which will continue shower and thunderstorm chances through the day today. Additional lift will be introduced this afternoon as a couple lead upper level shortwaves will eject out ahead of a closed upper level low which will slowly move through the desert southwest today. This will provide for the better chance for some thunderstorms this afternoon as well as the potential for a couple rounds of heavy rainfall. PWATs this afternoon into this evening will range between 2.00"2.25" which is near the 100th percentile for late Sept/early October. Tonight, the closed low over the desert southwest will move out into the western Plains forcing a cold front towards he area. The persistent LLJ coupled with additional lead upper level shortwaves will continue the potential for addition heavy showers and storms. Tomorrow the closed upper level low will move slowly across Kansas and force the cold front slowly through the area during the day Thursday. PWATs will still remain in the 1.75-2.00" range continue the chances for heavy rain. Tomorrow night the upper level low finally opens up becoming a more progressive wave as it moves through the region. This will bring one last shot of precipitation to the area before he upper level system shifts east by Friday morning. All told areas along and north of Highway 36 are forecast to receive 2 to 4+ inches of precipitation with 1 to 3 inches forecast further south. Highs today will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s but will be cooler on Thursday as the cold front moves through with highs ranging in the upper 60s to upper 70s.

Fortunately, conditions will dry out Friday and then look dry through the rest of the forecast period. Friday and Saturday a surface ridge of high pressure will dominate the area providing early fall-like temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Sunday a upper level ridge of high pressure over the southwestern CONUS will lowly shift eastward into the western High Plains. This will provide gradual height rises across the area allowing highs to rise a few degrees into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Monday a surface ridge will build into the area from the northern Plains keeping highs in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday the surface ridge of high pressure shifts east of the area with modest WAA developing and allowing highs to rise into the mid 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Showers continue to move through the forecast area overnight, with generally VFR conditions through the period. Some spots could fall into MVFR or brief IFR with heavier showers, but because this would be for a short duration and difficult to predict, opted to exclude this from the TAFs. KSTJ is the exception, where MVFR/IFR is more likely overnight due to the presence of a persistent heavier axis of rainfall. At the metro terminals, precipitation will become more scattered after sunrise. Could see a stray shower Wednesday afternoon before showers and possibly a few thunderstorms increase in coverage Wednesday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020. KS...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for KSZ025-102.