textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight across eastern Kansas and western Missouri with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. In addition. heavy rainfall is expected which could lead to localized flooding.

- Numerous rounds of showers and storms, particularly for northern Missouri, appear possible next week, with widespread cumulative heavy rain possible.

- Well above normal temperatures look likely again Monday and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the 100-105 range generally south of the Missouri River.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Morning showers and thunderstorms have made for a tricky forecast as to how afternoon/evening convection will unfold. Outflow from this morning's storms which has become the effective boundary has pushed south of the area. This will be where the best chance for more organized severe storms will be however, the actual surface front is currently bisecting the area and may be the focus for additional storm development this afternoon/evening. Hi-res guidance suggests storm development may be forced by a mid-level shortwave moving through the area on zonal flow aloft. However, model guidance does differ on timing and intensity of this shortwave feature. Storms are expect to develop in an area of 1500-2000J/Kg of MUCAPE and 40-45kts of effective shear. This will be sufficient for strong to isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail up to ping pong ball size and gusty to damaging winds to 60mph. Storm coverage is expected to increase in coverage and perhaps intensity (after a brief diurnal weakening trend) around midnight as a nocturnal 35-40kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the area. These storms will be very efficient with PWAT values around 2 inches so, if even brief training occurs localized flooding would be a concern. Storms will persist through the overnight into Sunday morning until the LLJ weakens and veers off to the east. At this time Sunday afternoon looks mostly dry although a few scattered showers (20-30%) may linger across the eastern CWA. Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the lower 70s north to mid 80s south. By tomorrow night, the surface front that moved through the area today will reside south of the CWA. Again a nocturnal LLJ will develop and override this boundary producing additional showers and thunderstorms across the area. Severe potential looks low at this time however, heavy rain may again be possible with PWATs remaining around 2.00 inches. This may lead to additional flooding concerns. Showers may linger into Monday morning as the frontal boundary lifts north across the area as a warm front. This will set up the area for a very warm day on Monday as strong WAA ushers in temperatures rising into the mid 80s to mid 90s with heat index values over the southern CWA rising to 100-105.

Monday night into Tuesday, a upper level trough will move from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a weak trailing cold front into the area on Tuesday. The local area will be on the periphery of a upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS. Models through the middle of next week bring unsettled weather to the area...depicting several shortwaves rounding the upper level ridge and bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the area with the stalled surface front over the area being the focus for storm activity. while severe potential looks low at this time, several rounds of storms are expected to produce 2-4 inches of rain across northern Missouri which may lead to flooding concerns. While the stagnant upper level pattern does break down late next week it does come courtesy of an upper level trough moving from the central Plains and through the local area which would keep the pattern unsettled.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

The potential for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the TAF pd has lead to a low conf fcst. Conditions outside of thunderstorms are expected to remain VFR thru the pd with sct-bkn clouds around 4-6kft expected with no vis restrictions. However, lgt-mod tsra are currently expected to impact the TAF sites btn 19Z-22Z and again btn 04Z-08Z with lgt shra fcst aft 08Z. Vis may be restricted to 4-5SM in showers and thunderstorms. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the north btn 5-10kts becmg lgt and vrb aft 02Z. Aft 09Z... winds will incr out of the east btn 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.