textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly Warmer Afternoon Highs, Still Cold Early Morning Lows

- Warmer By The Middle of the Week

- Low Rain Chances Middle of This Week, Greater Precipitation Chances Next Weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A negatively tilted trough axis continues to dig across the southern Plains toward the Gulf region, driving a stronger surface cyclone toward the Mississippi Delta. For the Central Plains and lower Missouri River Valley, this has forced a mid-level ridge axis across the area, with strong dAVA developing a broad surface anticyclone centered along the Middle and Upper portions of the Mississippi River Valley. This will continue to push eastward this afternoon, and force lower tropospheric flow southeasterly by the afternoon. This flow will help boost temperatures this afternoon back into the lower and mid 50s across much of the area. Lingering moisture from the southern Plains system is currently (as of 07z analysis) over western Kansas, and as this trough axis shifts eastward should expect to see some high-level cloud cover move in through the afternoon and evening. This cloud cover though should clear with another push of dAVA and subsidence, eventually clearing skies and pushing the moisture southeastward. As a result, clear skies and light winds will provide another setup for efficient radiational cooling heading into Monday morning, sending low temperatures into the lower 30s for most of the forecast area, with some upper 20s possible near the Iowa state line.

Monday morning and afternoon, dAVA regime remains in place tracking a broad surface anticyclone across the Central Great Lakes region and Ohio River Valley. This will turn low-level flow across eastern Kansas to Central Missouri southerly, with stronger WAA between 925mb-850mb. There should be enough mixing Monday afternoon to help get temperatures back toward the upper 50s for most of the area, and perhaps some lower 60s for areas south of U.S. Hwy. 50. If skies remain clear Monday night, we may see a strong diurnal cycle once again where lows drop into the lower 30s Tuesday morning, especially for areas east of Interstate 35, though uncertainty is a bit higher amongst ensemble members, with probabilities of dropping below 35F are only around 20 percent. Tuesday and Wednesday, continued southerly flow and push of the thermal ridge axis into the eastern Plains will continue to send temperatures upward, reaching the lower to mid 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Through the middle of the work week, overnight and early morning lows should mostly be above 40F, and perhaps some spots may only drop into the lower 50s. The forecast remains mostly dry through the middle of the week.

The ridge axis is progged to be completely east of the area by Wednesday afternoon or evening. Deterministic guidance depicts a short-wave trough lifting northeastward into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, dragging a surface cyclone along that path. The bulk of the forcing looks to remain well north of the area on Thursday, though subtle surface pressure falls may be able to reach the lower Missouri River Valley. With the exiting surface anticyclone though, flow becomes more southwesterly, bringing in drier air ahead of the axis of convergence from the northern Plains cyclone. Ensembles are depicting about 15-20 percent probabilities for some type of rainfall on Thursday afternoon or evening, but will be battling a lot of dry air. Continued WAA and favorable regimes for mixing may help temperatures Thursday and Friday reach the lower 70s south of U.S. Hwy. 50, with mid to upper 60s elsewhere across the area.

Next weekend, a stronger H5 trough and notable vort maxima is depicted in our extended guidance, that brings stronger mid-level forcing and a surface cyclone closer to the area, with an attendant cold front pushing across the Plains. This will introduce higher rainfall chances, between 50-60 percent across most of the forecast area. With the notable warmup, all precipitation will be rain. While the forcing could end up quite strong on Saturday, the placement of theta-e advection may be removed from our area during peak diurnal heating. As a result, current extended guidance depicts minimal CAPE and instability developing in our area, which could largely limit the threat for thunderstorms. Trends will need to continued to be monitored, because changes in the propagation speed of the wave could result in a different placement of a CAPE axis that could make Saturday more active. Once this system passes, seasonable temperatures are forecast by the end of next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with scattered to occasionally broken clouds at 25 kft, with light (less than 10 knot) east southeasterly winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.