textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight. Strongest storms may produce small hail.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread). - Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation Friday - Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low pressure over central Manitoba is expected to deepen as system continues to push east towards the Great Lakes. Cold front associated with this system has pushed into eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska by 18Z. Expect this boundary to continue to work south and east, approaching northwest Missouri early this evening. Increasing moisture in the vicinity of 850 mb may be sufficient for a few showers and storms to develop along the boundary this evening. Instability is fairly limited (generally 500- 1000 J/KG), but increasing speed shear aloft may lead to stronger updrafts capable of producing small hail. Low level convergence along the front weakens through the evening as flow turns more west to east south of the boundary, which should lead to convection becoming increasingly sparse through the overnight.

Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow. North of the boundary, expect northeast winds while southerly flow remains south of the boundary. Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F. There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

Leading shortwave building east across Kansas tomorrow could lead to more scattered shower activity developing across northwestern Missouri. A much larger and broad wave lifts north from Texas into the Central Plains later on Friday leading to more widespread shower/thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday. Halloween looks to be fairly gloomy and cooler with scattered showers. Precipitable water values 1.1-1.2" (near daily max) should lead to fairly efficient rain processes.

A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central US through at least the firs half of next week. This could lead to cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A cold front approaches the region through the overnight. Ongoing RA/TSRA ahead of this boundary is expected to weaken as it approaches the area; though there are still chances for it to affect STJ. There remains considerable uncertainty with timing and storm coverage tomorrow with the potential for precipitation existing for most of the day. RA/TSRA is most likely during the afternoon and evening, but an isolated SHRA in the morning is not implausible. Kept the PROB30 time periods to the highest confidence in potential RA/TSRA. Winds shift from southerly ahead of the front to easterly behind it as it moves southward. The front is expected to stall around the MO river; thus IXD should not experience as significant of a wind shift.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.