textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Near freezing temperatures this morning.

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri through 9AM Frost Advisory in effect for most of the rest of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

This forecast package looks to remain mainly dry with a warming trend through the period. Early this morning a surface ridge of high pressure is building into the area. Clear skies and light winds are providing a good radiational cooling set up allowing lows to start this morning in the low to mid 30s. A freeze warning is in effect until 9AM for northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri and a frost advisory is in effect for much of he rest of the forecast area. After the chilly start to the day, temperatures will remain below normal today as the area remains under cool northwest flow aloft and the aforementioned surface ridge of high pressure remains in control. However, sunny skies will aid in temperatures rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight, the surface ridge axis will slide south and east of the area allowing weak warm advection to develop in its wake. This will hold low temperatures in the mid 30s to lower 40s keeping patchy frost relegated to just sheltered area. Sunday, the upper level flow across the central CONUS will become quasi-zonal and weak WAA will continue at the surface. This will allow temperatures to return to near seasonal normals with highs in the mid 60s.

Monday, a upper level trough will look to dig into the west coast. This will allow upstream, low-amplitude, upper level ridging to build over the central CONUS. This couple with continued modest WAA will allow high to move back about normal in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday, the upper level ridging across the central CONUS begin to become more amplified. These height rises will aid in high warming into the low to mid 70s. Tuesday night, a shortwave rounding the upper level ridge acts to briefly flatten the ridge and brings the only really chance for isolated showers (less than 20%) to the area mainly across northern Missouri. Wednesday, the upper level ridge continues to become more amplified pushing highs into the mid 70s to the lower 80s. This upper level ridge will remain in control of the area through the remainder of the work week as WAA increases across the area allowing high son Thursday and Friday to rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the pd (with the exception of fog at STJ reducing vis to 1/4SM thru 14Z-15Z) with clr skies fcst. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 15Z-16Z aft which they will incr out of the S to 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>007- 011>016-020. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MOZ008-017- 021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044. KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060- 103>105.