textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Residual shower/storm activity persists through this morning. Additional chances for showers/storms this afternoon/evening, generally south of I-70, with primary hazards being heavy rain and strong winds.

- Additional chances for precipitation through the end of the week.

- Hot and humid conditions building through the weekend into early next week, with heat indices near the triple digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Overnight, a cluster of thunderstorms has persisted generally south of US-36, following along a pronounced LLJ and synoptic-scale diffluence in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere. Amidst ~40 kts of effective bulk shear and 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE persisting after sunset, these storms have remained robust enough for damaging winds and hail to impact portions of the CWA. Through the remainder of the overnight , the severe threat will begin to diminish with decreasing CAPE and effective shear as the LLJ shifts off towards the south and east. However, another caveat of tonight's activity has been very efficient rainfall rates out of thunderstorms, with enhanced moisture convergence along a stationary boundary draped across northwestern Missouri and PWATs around 2-2.5 inches. Although activity has become more spaced out through the night, thinking for the remainder of the overnight period is that, while the severe threat will continue diminishing, the hydrological threat will continue through tomorrow morning with any convection that fires along the LLJ and broad shortwave trough in the low/mid-levels.

Through the late morning, the orientation of the LLJ will shift more southwesterly/northeasterly as it progresses into central MO, with residual precipitation following along its nose. High pressure situated over the northern Plains building into northern MO may lead to some patchy fog through the morning, but confidence is not high enough for widespread dense fog development under residual cloud cover from tonight's activity. Dry air dredging in behind the retreating shortwave will help dry out the forecast into tomorrow for parts of the area, with temperatures residing in the 80s. However, south of I-70, a continued severe threat exists with warm advection and higher dewpoints enhancing instability during the day. The greatest hazards with this severe threat would be heavy rainfall and strong winds, with varied solutions on exact coverage/timing of thunderstorms during the day. The overall synoptic pattern looks to remain similar through the end of the week, with the forecast area residing along the periphery of an upper-level ridge situated over the southwestern CONUS and an upper-level trough over the Hudson Bay. Under this setup, additional disturbances in the flow will lead to continued PoPs through Friday evening. Going into the weekend, the upper-level ridge over the southwestern CONUS looks to build more over the forecast area, pushing the upper-level disturbances and subsequent PoPs more towards the north and prevailing low-level winds out of the south. With this adjustment, temperatures will climb into the 90s by early next week, with coincident rising dewpoints helping to bring apparent temperatures into the 90s and even the triple digits.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Complicated TAF period... Currently seeing TSRA/VCTS at all terminals with a complex of thunderstorms that is expected to persist overnight through 14-15z tomorrow. Winds remain light and variable, with gusts of 50 kts possible in the strongest storms. Also have been seeing varying IFR/LIFR ceilings through the night... Not anticipating prevailing LIFR, but prevailing IFR is not out of the question. Have illustrated this with prevailing IFR and TEMPO LIFR in strongest TSRA through the night. Impacts to visibility also anticipated in strongest TSRA, with potential for mist/patchy fog development further reducing visibilities as activity pushes off to the east. Anticipating conditions to clear up by 18z tomorrow, with ceilings rising and scattering out through the period. Ambient winds remain variable around 5 kts through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ013>015- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060- 103>105.