textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) through mid-morning, but meaningful precipitation is not expected.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions expected through this weekend.

- Rain chances return Monday (20-50%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Early this morning, a upper level shortwave is rounding the upper level ridge over the Plains. This shortwave is moving into the local area providing enough lift to produce weak returns on radar moving into the eastern Kansas and western Missouri. These returns are falling into dry air below 10kft which is keeping any precipitation relegated to brief very light sprinkles. These brief sprinkles may continue until mid-morning when the upper shortwave will weaken and surface high pressure builds into the area from the east. Despite surface high pressure providing weak mixing today, height rises across the area due to the upper level ridge becoming more amplified will drive highs into the low to mid 70s. Continued height rises are expected Thursday as the upper level ridge axis moves from the central Plains to the eastern Plains in response to a upper level trough moving into the California coast. This will drive highs into the mid to upper 70s. Friday and Saturday, the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area providing further height rises coupled with modest WAA. This will aid in highs rising into the mid 70 to near 80.

By Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough will move from the Great Basin to the Eastern Rockies weakening as it does. This will force an attendant cold front into the Plains on Sunday. The local area will remain in the warm sector ahead of the front with highs again in the 70s. Monday, weak trough will move into the central Plains finally forcing the cold front into the CWA providing the next chance for precipitation. The upper trough will then move through the region on Monday night continuing shower chances as the front is forcing through the CWA. Temperatures in Monday will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the cold front cooling highs to near seasonal normals in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with bkn mid-lvl clouds around 10kft fcst thru 16Z-17Z. Aft 16Z-17Z...sct high clouds are expected. Winds will generally be light out of the south thru the pd at 6kts or less.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.