textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Air Arrives, With Brief Break Sunday Afternoon

- Light Snow Possible Northern MO Saturday Afternoon and Sunday Afternoon

- Temperatures Return Closer to Normal Tuesday Afternoon

UPDATE

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Strong surface cyclone currently sits over the central Great Lakes Region this morning with surface pressure troughing extending west of the Middle Mississippi River Valley, supported by a deep negatively titled trough axis positioned roughly from the western Great Lakes to the eastern Plains. At the 300mb level, there is one enhanced jet streak that extends from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the Mid Atlantic Region, with another stronger jet streak across the Northern Rockies. A strong surface anticyclone is currently present over the TX/OK Panhandle Region, as this area sat on the anticyclonic side of the first jet streak. This has left our forecast area in a strong isallobaric gradient over the past 24 hours, maintaining strong northerly winds across the area, as well as pushing in a Polar Airmass to drastically cool temperatures and dry conditions out. This has also pushed the leading edge of the strong surface cold front into the Ozarks Region. A few lingering flurries or light snow showers may still occur this morning in an area of weak convergence, but moisture availability is quickly dwindling. With the push of cold air, temperatures are only forecast to reach the the 20s for much of the area, with upper teens along the IA-MO state line. As we proceed through the afternoon, the surface cyclone over the Great Lakes will become vertically stacked with the center of the mid and upper-level trough axis, which will largely halt eastward progress of the system. There will also be high pressure developing near the Front Range as the anticyclone side of the jet streak west of the the current trough axis. There are multiple mid-level vort maxima and perturbations over the Northern Great Lakes that will likely advect around the system that is closing off, with stronger dCVA affecting portions of Iowa. This may be enough to generate weak lift in portions of the Northern and Northeastern Missouri this afternoon that result in light snow shower activity. There will not be much in the way of deep moisture, but a shallow DGZ nearly at ground level with just enough ascent will be capable of yielding light snow activity. Overnight into Sunday morning, continue CAA with breezy winds will allow wind chill values to hover over 0F to perhaps just slightly below zero for few hours Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon, the vort maxima moves back around into the Central Great Lakes Region while another short-wave trough drops south out of Manitoba. This forces the surface anticyclone over the southern Plains further eastward, and between 925mb-800mb will provide a few hours of southwesterly flow and modest WAA. As long as there is no lingering moisture that keeps the area under cloud cover, this may provide the forecast area, at least the southwestern two-thirds of it, a brief warm up Sunday afternoon where highs climb back into the upper 30s, perhaps lower 40s. The stronger WAA axis though will be confined to the Central Plains. Our northeastern counties may miss out on this, with temperatures struggling to climb out of the upper 20s. Later in the afternoon, the mid-level vort max moves through, and may bring another round of lift to the northern and northeast Missouri through the afternoon. Again, moisture content is questionable, but increasing lift along with a shallow DGZ not far above the surface level may allow for the development of some snow activity. Accumulations are not that impressive in current forecast guidance, but will leave in slight chance POPs for this activity Sunday afternoon. The better forcing may stay northeast of the forecast area.

Colder air then pushes in Sunday Night, and will lingering through Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be below normal, and on Monday keeps the entire forecast below freezing the entire day, with upper 20s south of Kansas City, and upper teens for highs near the Kirksville area. This will also lead to sub zero wind chills, especially for our northeastern counties Monday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, stronger short-wave drops across the Rockies which will help turn surface flow across the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley southerly, pushing temperatures back closer to normal. For the remainder of the week, weather pattern appears to be unsettled with a few thermal boundaries set to track across the CONUS. The main question for precipitation potential toward the end of next week will be the available mid-level support for lift. Ensembles are showing low end probabilities for detectable precipitation in the forecast. These may be low primarily due to timing discrepancies of the compact features that move through. Expecting to see a fluctuating temperatures toward the end of the week along with potential to see precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Periods of light to occasional moderate snow and snow showers will continue this afternoon before diminishing overnight. Heavier snow shower activity may produce TEMPO low VFR vsbys at MCI and MKC through 22 and 23z respectively, while TEMPO MVFR vsby and cig restrictions are possible at STJ through 22z. Cloud bases will lift and clear overnight with high clouds returning Sunday morning. Blustery NW winds of 15-20 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts will continue this afternoon before relaxing and shifting to the SW by Sunday morning, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts possible.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.