textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy Snow Portions of North-Central to Northeast Missouri

- Rain Continues South Of Hwy. 36, Rain-Snow Mix Possible

- Much Colder After This System Passes

- Another Round of Snow Possible Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Positively tilted trough axis is moving across the Front Range early this morning with associated surface cyclone centered over the Oklahoma Panhandle Region. Warm front that advanced throughout the day Friday has stalled as a stationary front late in the evening but has slowly started to push the warmer air eastward again, along with an axis of surface troughing across much of the Missouri River Valley. In our far northeastern counties, temperatures remained cold enough for snow to start once there was enough forcing for precipitation. IRK has had a few observations of 1/2SM visibility with heavier snowfall. As the trough axis moves eastward along with the surface cyclone, should continue to see snowfall for that area north of Hwy. 36 and east of Interstate 35. 00z HREF for our northeast counties continues to depict hourly snowfall rates around 0.75 inches for our northeast counties, and over toward the IA-MO-IL triple point, a pocket of 1.0 inch per hour rates. This will continue between 07z-10z this morning. Snowfall rates drop off for a bit a the front stalls with the first mid-level vort max moving east of the Mississippi River Valley. Another lobe of vorticity drops southward, and will force the cyclone east-southeast and also push the cold front through. Conditions continue to be favorable moisture to wrap around the back side of this system. This will provide another shot of snowfall across north-central and northeastern Missouri at some point this afternoon. Based on HREF 1-hour snowfall, some time between 16z-19z is when rates pick up in pace again. For areas in the Winter Storm Warning, snowfall totals between 5-8 inches are still within reason. CAMs and even deterministic synoptic scale guidance continues to paint totals as high as 10 inches assuming a 10:1 ratio, which may be a bit high considering how much moisture is currently packed into the column. However, double digits amounts are likely too robust given the warmer antecedent conditions heading into the first substantial snowfall of the season. While some of the raw model output has these high accumulations, a look at the model estimated snow depth provides more to the story, showing the degree of melting that occurs with the accumulating snowfall. Most of the output is quite a bit a less for snow depth. With the overnight forecast package, the deterministic gridded forecast amounts were bumped up a bit, but overall the ranges advertised with the Friday afternoon package still hold. For the counties in the Winter Storm Warning, NBM probabilities for exceeding 5.0 inches of snowfall are generally above 80 percent, with a tight gradient to the southwest. The heavier snowfall totals are largely be driven by the moisture content and strong upper-level lift. There is still no strong signal for any kind of robust FGEN processes. Omega fields show decent lift through the DGZ, but elsewhere lift is not overly impressive. Along with warmer surface temperatures, this is largely the reason for not buying into the double digit snowfall amounts that some NWP guidance has been providing.

For areas in the Winter Weather Advisory southwest of the heaviest snow axis, the HRRR and HREF mean has shown an increase in snowfall totals. However, like with the areas further northeast, the model estimated snow depth shows a large degree of melting that occurs. There was some consideration of expanding the winter weather advisory further southwest. However, the diminishing reflectivities on radar noted around 07z south of Hwy. 36 along with nighttime satellite imagery showed the push of warmer air moving into parts of Central Missouri. And after about 04z last night, several surface observations started pushing above 34F, with increasing dewpoints. Some snow was still reported, likely driven by wet-bulbing in the lowest part of the troposphere. But with the push of warm air, was not overly confident in widespread amounts exceeding 2". Therefore, kept the Winter Weather Advisory as is. It is still possible for areas just out side of the headlines to see some accumulating light snow, as depicted by recent CAM output. However, the clear push of warm air on observations made it difficult to justify increasing snowfall totals to a point of issuing the headline. Heading into Saturday morning and afternoon, expecting temperatures to remain warm enough for more rain as the trailing cold front starts to push through. A rain-snow mix may be spotted at some point, even in western Missouri and eastern Kansas once the colder air arrives. However, dry air will also arrive with this, and by the time the column would be cool enough to support all snow, will eat away most of the moisture preventing any kind of notable accumulation. 00z HREF from the KC metro to portions of central Missouri favors mostly rain as the precipitation type to produce any kind of accumulation. Accumulating snow probabilities are generally under 15 percent for the central, western, and southwestern portions of the forecast area.

Aside from the precipitation, stronger pressure gradient will develop on the back side of this cyclone as a strong high develops, along with stronger CAA. This is expected to create breezy winds Saturday afternoon that may continue well into the evening. Gusts to around 40 MPH may be possible, though must of this will occur after the precipitation is done. Have placed wind gusts values closer to those of the NBM 90th percentile. These may start to push low-end wind advisory criteria, but signal is not strong enough to issue one at this time. Central Kansas will likely see the better setup for wind gusts above 45 MPH as this system exits.

Sunday afternoon, the entire H5 trough will be in the Great Lakes Region. A mid-level ridge axis moves across the Central CONUS as another positively tilted trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. The AVA regime will promote subsidence and push a strong surface anticyclone across our area, along with pushing in a cold, dry polar airmass. This will keep high temperatures only in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area, and allows overnight lows to dip into the teens.

Another system is forecast to move across the region on Monday. Current ensemble output is showing increasing probabilities for accumulating snowfall, with greatest chances across northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. The greatest question right now, is if this system will be able to advect in enough moisture ahead of it prior to the stronger forcing arriving. The preceding polar airmass is going to send dewpoints into the lower teens across most of the lower Missouri River Valley even through late Sunday. GEFS mean depicts a band of 2-3 inches of snow mainly across northern Missouri, though a few members try to bring as far south of Interstate 70. GEFS probabilities for at least 1" of snowfall through Monday currently sit around 80 percent. In far northern Missouri, probabilities are sitting around 50 percent for at least 3 inches of snowfall. A quick glance at model soundings shows a very cold column, which keeps the main precipitation type snow. The current setup depicted by deterministic output does not suggest any kind of warm nose resulting in mixed precipitation. However, with the strong surface anticyclone from Sunday, there is some potential for blocking to re-route the system and the placement of air, as well as the placement of a greater moisture axis. Once this current system exits and we see how the polar airmass plays out on Sunday, confidence should increase in snowfall details on Monday. Based on the forcing, somewhere in our area is likely to see accumulating snowfall. But that could vary between the IA-MO stateline, and the Interstate 70 corridor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Messy conditions across the area will continue through the early portions of the TAF period. All TAF sites continue to wrestle with in/out IFR/LIFR ceilings, but should see gradual improvement through IFR to MVFR over the next handful of hours as the surface low tracks east and colder/drier air begins to filter in with gusty NW winds. This too tapers off linger -RA for the metro sites. For KSTJ, potentially a brief transition from -RA to -RASN to -SN before fully ending. VFR eventually returns late over night, around/after 08z/09z, though gusty winds will continue a while longer. Regarding the winds, rapidly changing wind directions the next couple of hours with the surface low virtually overhead currently. Over the next couple hours NW winds will prevail and quickly becoming gusty with NW sustained winds into lower 20s kts and gusts into the low to mid 30s kts across all sites. This will carry into the evening before gradual easing around/after 06z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ001>005-015-024-025-033. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ006>008- 016-017. KS...None.