textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and a bit warmer today.

- Gusty winds return Friday with 30-40 MPH gusts possible.

- Some flurries are possible early Friday morning (best chances across far NE and central MO). Chances for sprinkles/flurries continue after sunrise Friday. No accumulations are expected.

- Another plunge of colder temperatures this weekend. Highs in the 20s and single digit lows expected Saturday and Sunday respectively.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Ridging across the central CONUS provides a brief break in the weather action for your Thursday. Southerly winds at low levels do push relatively warmer air into the region pushing temperatures slightly higher into the 40s; however, northwest flow aloft will keep temperatures in check.

Satellite imagery continues to show a loose rex block across the eastern Pacific. This complimented with the deep trough that is slowly moving east set up a relatively narrow channel for shortwaves to flow across the country. Over the past few days, ensemble forecast guidance has suggested the development of another wave across Canada that is expected to follow this routing across the central CONUS. Looking at water vapor imagery, the aforementioned wave can be seen starting to develop across western Canada. Strong cyclonic vorticity advection deepens the trough as well as enhance frontogenesis along the leading edge of the cold air. Momentum builds behind the front as the trough strengthens. A leading shortwave perturbs the relatively warmer and more moist air mass in front of it Thursday night. This could promote the development of snow along the leading axis which is expected to pass more through the Quad Cities and northern IL; however, it could bring some snow across into far NE and central MO. Better chances for snow come early Friday morning as deterministic guidances suggests a strong maximum of upper level CVA transits the region which could provide enough lift to create some flurries during the pre-sunrise hours. The primary limitation for development looks to be the location of the surface front relative to the arrival of the upper level CVA. The surface front's position ahead of the CVA as well as northwest flow looks to dry out low level significantly and may not leave enough moisture to either a) create dendrites or more likely b) stop it from evaporating before it reaches the ground.

During the daylight hours Friday a strong jet streak reaches down to the surface across the northern Plains. This looks to bring significant wind gusts across SD, NE, and western KS. Flow slows down comparatively as it reaches NW MO, but wind gusts of 30-40 MPH remain possible across the western parts of the CWA. Advisory level winds look to remain outside of our region, but an intermittent 45+ MPH gust is not implausible. Aggressive deterministic models are hinting at some chances for snow Friday afternoon. It seems plausible because of the surface convergence of the strong NW winds to the NW and lesser NW winds over us. This would create some kinematic lift; however, the lack of upper level support and potential lack of moisture limit the potential for anything more than flurries. In a high wind environment, flurries would be difficult as the fine dendrites would get shredded. Further assessments of hi-res guidance could add some clarity to this potential.

Much like the system last Friday and Saturday, this one is going to be a bit of a one-two punch, especially in the temperature department. Highs Friday looks to happen around midnight with the potential for them to rebound slightly to around 40 degrees in the afternoon. A second pulse of Arctic air moves in Friday night into Saturday and pushes temperatures even lower capping Saturday highs in the teen and 20s. The good news is, this cold high pressure systems pumps the brakes on the gust winds which will keep it from being dangerously cold; just majorly unpleasant.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the few mornings this season where temperatures across the region bottom out in the single digits area wide. The good news is that the region will be on the backside of the high from earlier; thus reorienting flow SW. This kick to the teeth of warm air advection rebounds temperatures Sunday back towards the 40s for those west of US-65 (sorry Kirksville, you probably will not get above freezing). Long term guidance does show a general warming of temperatures, but continues to place the region along the divider between warmer southern CONUS air and colder northern CONUS. This is going to result in a tether ball like wind flux where days will swing from north to south and back again each day seeing temperature bounce from mild to less mild. Surprisingly, this residence on the previously mentioned divider does not make the pattern more active. Long range guidance has placed us in the doldrums of precipitation chances taking most of the activity either far north or far south. Of course, minor oscillations may open up some opportunity, but that will likely be dependent on how the upper level pattern evolves over the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Southerly winds with some SCT low and high clouds expected for today. Some gusts are possible through the daylight hours mainly during the afternoon. A front moves through the area overnight that shifts winds to northwesterly. Winds accelerate near and behind the frontal passage.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.