textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* An active weather pattern will setup later Thursday and continue through Monday. - A few showers and non-severe storms continue to look possible this morning. - A very unstable airmass in place Friday may result in potential afternoon/ evening severe storms. Otherwise, chances increase overnight as a convective system may move through the area. Large hail and damaging winds are possible for the afternoon/evening activity. Threat becomes more damaging winds overnight. - Warm and humid conditions through the weekend will keep the potential for afternoon and/or overnight storms going Saturday and Sunday. - More widespread severe weather looks possible Monday as a cold front moves through a very unstable airmass.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

This morning, from a few hours before sunrise, through 15-16Z, an area of isentropic ascent will move through the area. This lift is noted from about 305K through 320K and may lead to isolated showers and a few thunderstorms. These will be elevated in nature with instability lifted from 7500-10000 ft. As such, there is a fairly deep layer of dry air for any precipitation to make it through. Have kept the slight chance PoPs for this time frame given the high-based instability and deep, dry sub-cloud layer. Late this evening and overnight, there remains a decent chance that convection that initially develops to our west will move into northern MO as a potentially strong MCS with potential for damaging winds.

Friday, there is a conditional risk for severe storms during the afternoon and evening, with better chances for storms during the late evening and overnight. For the afternoon, strong instability will develop as mid 60 dewpoints advect northward into the area. It's possible that a few areas reach their convective temperature and we see storms develop within this strongly unstable airmass. Storms may also develop on possible inverted surface trough extending northeastward from a surface low in western Oklahoma. Regardless, if storms are able to develop during the afternoon, they are likely to become severe with large/very large hail possible and damaging winds. What seems more likely to happen is that storms develop to our west along and east of the boundary and ahead of a subtle mid-level shortwave trough tracking through KS. These then congeal and move into eastern KS and west-central and northern MO as a potentially severe convective system with a damaging wind potential.

For Saturday and Sunday, continued warm and humid conditions will continue to lead a very unstable airmass over the area. The inverted surface trough still looks to be present across the forecast area, which would act as a a forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development. But we're also getting to a point that more mesoscale, and at this point in time, unresolvable features may force storms as well. So storms may develop <waves hands across the CWA> during the afternoon given the instability present.

Focus then shifts to Monday, when a strong cold front will move through an extremely unstable airmass with 3500-4500 SBCAPE present and favorable deep-layer shear of 40+ kts. Storms seem likely to develop during the afternoon along/just ahead of that cold front and then quickly race to the east as the front swiftly moves through the forecast area. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes look possible with this setup. Behind this front, cooler and less humid conditions will prevail from Tuesday through the end of the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of any thunderstorms. Gusty southeast winds through the afternoon are expected to decrease with sunset. Potential for isolated storms after 02Z Thursday, but location is uncertain and coverage should remain fairly isolated, so don't have mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs at this point.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.