textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Some isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening, but more widespread storm coverage should remain north of the area towards Nebraska and Iowa.

- Due to the potential for heavy rainfall tonight over already saturated areas, a Flood Watch has been issued for the northwestern portions of the area.

- Additional chances of showers/storms will persist through the weekend into early next week.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will return next week, with heat indices rising to the 90s and near 100 degrees across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A lull in shower and thunderstorm activity was seen over the region this afternoon, with a building warm frontal zone over the MO/KS/NE/IA border. This front will act as a mechanism for increasing shower and storm chances this afternoon and evening over our northern areas. This afternoon, a capping inversion aloft will help keep conditions largely, if not entirely, dry. We say that as both 05.12z HREF/REFS ensembles show a few of their members with some signs of cells development over 40 dBZ closer to the warm front. However, most of the members keep us dry, so we went with lower coverage (10-30% chance) for now. However, if a parcel/cell does break through the cap, it could quickly become strong to severe given significant instability (3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE per the HREF). However, deep-layer shear appears to much weaker (only around 20 to 25 knots), so robust, organized convection appear unlikely, which could result in more pulsey storms if any develop.

Looking at tonight, the signal is there for more widespread convection along the boundary north toward Nebraska and Iowa. CAMs have come into decent agreement with keeping this convection largely out of our forecast area, although some of it may graze our northern tier or two of counties as the instability gradient remains to our north. SPC continues to keep a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe storms along and north of Highway 36, but again, this could be more of an isolated to scattered threat. Still, if any of the overnight convection were to go any more southward, this could pose another night of flash flooding where soil moisture is already saturated. Heavy downpours are expected with any convection as Pwat values around 1.5 to 1.7 inches are expected, which would be near or even exceeding the 90th percentile of the NAEFS climatological percentiles. That said, we have issued a Flood Watch from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM Saturday morning for flash flooding potential.

As we look to Saturday and Saturday night, a building upper-level ridge is expected over the central CONUS, but a southern stream shortwave is expected to lift northeastward towards our region from western TX. A leading wave of positive-vorticity advection ahead of the mid-level low should provide ample large scale forcing over our area, leading to potential for more showers/storms Saturday PM into early Sunday morning, but this remains conditional with how storms later tonight into Saturday morning evolve. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms northeast of the KC metro. Another very warm and humid day is expected Saturday, with highs rising to the middle/upper 80s for most locations.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

By Sunday, a closed low will begin to lift across the central Plains towards the northeast, and increase our PoPs through the day. Forecast PWAT values still reside at/above the 90th percentile in most deterministic guidance, with continued deep warm cloud layer depths and long, skinny CAPE profiles. Deep layer shear looks to remain marginal, so organized thunderstorms don't look to be a major concern for this day. Rather, continued heavy rainfall with sub-severe wind/hail are expected to be the primary hazards associated with the day's activity. Considering current hydrological concerns, and the continuation of those concerns tonight with additional precipitation, will have to keep an eye on the potential for excessive rainfall to expand hydrological concerns from where rain has previously fallen farther east and south. This expanded risk is highlighted nicely by WPC's Day 3 ERO, where our forecast area has been placed under a Slight (Level 2/4) risk. Temperatures are forecast to fall slightly in conjunction with this period of extended rainfall, which will be a brief reprieve from the higher heat we've had (and will continue to have) during the weekend.

This activity is expected to gradually push northeast as the shortwave continues lifting farther northeast, gradually decreasing PoPs through the day on Monday. There is a brief opportunity for additional PoPs (40-60%) Monday evening with a small perturbation trailing the retreating shortwave, but this activity is expected to remain brief as a ridge builds over the area starting midweek, keeping overall PoPs minimal through midweek. Sustained southerly winds and continued warm/moist advection will allow our heat indices to continue rising into the 90s through the extended, with probabilistic guidance indicating some low chances (15-30%) to meet or exceed 100 degF during this period. Regardless of the potential for heat indices to reach the triple digits, heat-related risks and concerns will need to continue to be monitored as we grow closer to the period in question, especially when these heat indices have the potential to fall within our heat headline criteria. By the end of the forecast period, synoptic guidance indicates an upper- level trough and associated surface low potentially draping a cold front across the northern Plains. This could serve as relief from the intense heat forecast for next week, so this forecast trend will also need to be monitored to see if it sticks around.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

SCT to BKN MVFR daytime cumulus clouds were seen across the area early this afternoon. Models suggest that the ceilings will improve quickly this afternoon to VFR, but current satellite imagery shows pretty extensive BKN coverage over most of the area, so thinking that these MVFR ceilings will continue for longer than expected. Also, current observations show southwesterly winds gusting around 20 to 25 knots at TAF issuance, so plan to add gusts in as well. Largely dry conditions are also expected per latest models, although there is a lower chance (nearly 20-30%) of a storm developing near STJ this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.