textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Heavy rainfall can be expected with storms in this environment leading to rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr.

* Warm and muggy condition are expected to develop Monday, with heat and humidity continuing to build Tuesday into Wednesday. Heat indices in excess of 100 F are possible-likely.

* Active weather pattern continues late week with potential for storms returning to the region Wednesday afternoon through the weekend.

Discussion

Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Messy/unsettled pattern with upper trough across central KS. MCV across eastern KS is expected to lead to additional showers and thunderstorms across the region this afternoon into tonight as the disturbance slowly builds east. Broad isentropic lift on the 300- 310K surfaces will assist with the lift creating showers and thunderstorms across the region. Storms have already begun to develop across southwestern Missouri as of 19Z, and expect them to lift north through the afternoon with additional rounds possible late this afternoon and evening as MCV shifts east and low level jet increases. Atmosphere primed for heavy rain with precipitable water values of 1.9-2.0" (near the daily max for this time of year). Also have deep warm cloud depths leading to very efficent rainfall. Band of showers which moved through the region today leading to hydro- planing issues on area roadways and saw rainfall rates approaching 2"/hr, and expect similar rainfall rates with storms tonight. Flash flood guidance is lowered across the area due to recent rainfall, and is generally in the 1-2"/3 hours and 1.5-3"/6 hrs across much of the area. Have coordinated a flood watch for portions of central Missouri, where multiple rounds of rain are most likely. In addition to the flooding threat, there is a potential severe threat with 1000- 1700 J/kg of CAPE. Wind shear is somewhat weak, but could see brief spikes in storms or an enhancement this evening as low level jet increases keeping the atmosphere from decoupling substantially.

Rainfall threat will gradually shift east through the overnight into Monday as MCV/Upper trough shifts east. Muggy airmass will remain however, and upper ridging will lead to warming into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Soupy airmass remaining across the region will promote heat indices of 100-105 F Tuesday into Wednesday. Strongly considered a heat advisory for eastern KS/western Missouri including the KC metro given the first heat event of the year, but through coordination, held off for now. This will likely be a strong consideration for future shifts.

Upper ridge shows some signs of weakening on Wednesday into Thursday as trough develops in eastern Montana and lifts nourtheast. Trailing cold front potentially approaches from the northwest assisted by additional showers and thunderstorms. Storm Prediction Center has outlooked northern Missouri for the potential of severe weather in the vicinity of the front on Thursday.

The boundary looks to stall across the region before potentially lifting back north as additional short waves moving across in zonal flow lead to additional chances of thunderstorms late this week into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms lifting north with MVFR ceilings are expected in waves through the afternoon hours across the taf sites. The threat for additional showers and thunderstorms shifts east of the TAF sites this evening. After 08Z, storms are expected to be focused largely across Iowa, with a renewed threat of thunderstorms across southwest Missouri. At this point, the thought is much of the convection would be focused south, but could see lower ceilings which are expected to slowly rise and scaltter out through the day on Monday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MOZ039-040-044>046- 054. KS...None.