textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend and into at least the next week.

- Rain chances return for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

The boundary that moved through Wednesday has stalled to our south and is evident from southwestern Missouri west-northwest into northwestern Kansas. As high pressure moves southeastward into the Great Lakes, weakening as it does so, low-level flow will increase from the south across Kansas and to a lesser extent western Missouri. This will lift that stalled boundary back northward through the day so that by around 21Z, it will be situated from eastern Nebraska southeast into central Missouri. Moisture may pool again along this boundary as it is lifting northward and with temperatures likely to climb into the low to mid 80s again, dewpoints may climb into lower 60s. So it will once again feel hot for anyone outside this afternoon. Our normal high temperatures today range from the upper 60s, in northeastern MO, to near 70 degrees, in the Kansas City area. So we'll once again be looking at highs at least 10-15 degrees above normal, with some areas pushing 20 degrees above normal.

As has been the case for a few nights now, models show an area of ascent developing as the low-level jet strengthens tonight into Friday morning. This ascent is fairly deep, evident from 300K to 310K. So showers storms seem likely for areas to our north. Forecast soundings for northern and northeastern Missouri show deep dry air below 10000 to 12000 feet. With the strongest ascent north of the area and deep dry air to overcome, it's very unlikely anything develops or moves into our northern zones tonight. So the forecast remains dry with only ~5% PoPs for our far northern zones.

The forecast through Monday continues to look well above normal We're very likely to see highs continue to be 10-15 degrees above normal, with some areas, mainly in our southern and southeastern zones, pushing 20 degrees above normal. High temperatures will be pushing the lower 90s in our southern and southeastern zones given the dominant upper ridging across the middle of the country. Within this ridging though, the remnants of Isaias will pass to our east, aided by a strong shortwave moving through the Southern Plains. The upper ridge reestablishes itself and amplifies across the middle of the country through the middle of the week. Ensemble mean 500mb heights are greater than the 90th percentile. If this verifies, our highs will be right back in the mid to upper 80s, and pushing 90 degrees, well above our current forecast. Forecast uncertainty is very high and the spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles is around 15 degrees across the area. This increase to greater than 20 degrees comparing the 10 and 90th percentiles. This uncertainty naturally spills into the PoP forecast as well. If the upper ridging is stronger, like the deterministic GFS shows, and the ensemble 500mb mean indicates, the chances for precipitation decrease substantially for Tuesday into Wednesday. If we see something more in line with the deterministic Canadian, which has a shortwave moving through, or the deterministic ECMWF, which has the ridge further east, we would have better chances for rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

River valley fog will affect STJ for a few hours after sunrise. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected for eastern KS and western MO. Winds will be light through the forecast though will trend to the southeast later this morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.