textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Heat advisory/ excessive heat warning in effect today along and south of highway 36.

* Low chances continue for morning showers and thunderstorms across the region, with best chances across northern Missouri.

* There is the potential for more organized thunderstorms late week that pose a damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Another day, more heat and humidity to contend with along with the potential of morning storms.

A shortwave across southern Nebraska is fueling clusters of storms across central into eastern Nebraska into northern KS. This activity is expected to shift east, approaching northwestern Missouri towards 10-11Z. This activity is building east towards the core of the low level jet which extends from the panhandle of Texas to northern Missouri. Forecast soundings continue to show a dearth of moisture below 600 mb, so if showers are able to push east, heat bursts would once again be possible. In addition, showers would have the potential to assist in surfacing the 30-40 knot low level jet. The showers are expected to weaken through the morning. Southerly flow will once again assist in allowing the atmosphere to rapidly warm with ample surface heating. Have continued the excessive heat warning across central Missouri and have issued a heat advisory roughly highway 36 and south with afternoon/evening heat indices expected to climb to 105-110 F. Left far northern Missouri out of the heat advisory as lingering cloud cover/ convective debris/outflow boundaries associated with convection to the north may make it a bit harder to warm to advisory levels.

Long standing trough across eastern Colorado into western KS is expected to remain in place much of the week. This trough is expected to lead isolated late day convection today, and more widespread activity on Wednesday as yet another shortwave pushes east across the Northern Plains. This could result in the potential for an MCS Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though guidance is very murky on this potential. There are still enough solutions suggesting this as a possibility to prompt SPC to outlook northern Missouri in a marginal risk for Thursday morning.

Temperature forecast in the extended depends heavily on how effective MCS would be on dragging stationary boundary in the vicinity of I-80 southward. Until then, the heat and humidity will continue with the potential of extending heat headlines in time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Gusty winds from the SSW are expected to continue, decreasing around sunset. Spotty showers are possible tomorrow morning in NE Missouri but are expected to remain elevated with little/no visibility reductions at the surface.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ011>017-020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ102.