textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday: - Strong to potentially severe storms are possible late Sunday morning - early afternoon.

- High winds are likely Sunday morning through Sunday night with wind gusts up to 50-55 mph. Some areas may see wind gusts near or exceeding 58 mph.

- Wintry precipitation likely as cold air surges into the area behind a passing cold front Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, with the potential for periods of significantly reduced visibility.

- Bitterly cold wind chill values expected late Sunday night into Monday morning with values below zero for most of the region.

* Warmer conditions build into the region for the later half of next week.

UPDATE

Have coordinated the extension of the high wind watch farther east across northern Missouri. Core of 850 HPA winds appears to be focused across Iowa with 55 knots towards the top of the mixed layer behind the cold front spilling into northern Missouri. Considered a winter storm watch for potential blizzard conditions for portions of northern Missouri; however, confidence is not high enough at this point that visibilities would be 1/4 mile or less with only an inch or two of snow expected. With that said, it will still be unpleasant across northern Missouri Sunday night into Monday morning with strong winds leading to significant reductions of visibility in falling and blowing snow and wind chills falling below zero.

DISCUSSION

Current H5 analysis depicts 50 to 70 knot west northwesterly flow aloft, with some high level cloud cover traversing northwest to southeast across the area this evening within the mid/upper flow. At the surface, a 1023 mb center of high pressure is sliding into central Minnesota, with a relaxed pressure gradient across our region yielding light and variable winds. Temperatures this morning should drop into the mid to upper 30s with some passing high clouds continuing. Mid/upper flow becomes zonal by late Saturday morning, with strong theta e advection commencing on Saturday afternoon as a warm front lifts south to north through the CWA, increasing southerly low level flow and increasing temperatures into the low to mid 70s for areas south of the Missouri River, and increasing dew points from the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning to the 40s by Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday night, a potent mid/upper trough is progged to dig across the Rockies, continuing to deepen as it enters the Plains by early Sunday morning, with an associated sub 992 mb surface low centered somewhere in the vicinity of NW Missouri into central Iowa by around 6 AM Sunday morning and a trailing cold front extending to the south southwest through NW Missouri into far eastern Kansas. Continued theta e advection out ahead of the surface low and cold front should send dew points into the low 50s with 20 mph south southwesterly winds gusting to 30 mph. Uncertainties still remain with respect to the timing, strength, evolution, track of the system, etc., but as this system makes its way through the region, it will bring the threat for multiple hazards. These hazards will be discussed individually below.

Strong to Severe Storms:

Pre frontal showers and thunderstorms are probable given strong synoptic scale ascent out ahead of the upper trough with rapid mid level height falls, as well as a line of showers and thunderstorms along/slightly ahead of the cold front. Instability may be a bit lacking, but most guidance suggests at least 500 J/kg of MU CAPE, with isolated pockets of higher CAPE, and with very strong deep layer shear, there will be a chance for strong to marginally severe storms capable of quarter size hail and 60+ mph wind gusts. However, better severe chances should remain east southeast of the CWA.

Very Strong Non-thunderstorm Winds:

Winds will turn northwesterly behind the cold front, with sustained winds on the order of 30 to 35 mph and gusts up to 50 to 55 mph, and potentially higher. Strongest winds should be across far NE Kansas and NW Missouri. As such, a high wind watch has been issued for these locations from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM Monday. This high wind watch/warning may be extended further to the southeast if confidence in reaching criteria increases. Elsewhere, a wind advisory is very likely going to be necessary.

Snow and Reduced Visibility:

Temperatures will plummet behind the passing cold front, with temperatures in KC falling from the upper 50s at ~10 am to the mid 30s by early to mid afternoon. CAMs indicate a there may be a period of no precipitation immediately behind the front, with precipitation wrapping around the surface low moving into the CWA by early afternoon and continuing through the afternoon and evening hours. As thermal profiles rapidly cool behind the front, a changeover to snow is possible by mid afternoon. There is still quite a bit of spread among the models with respect to the coverage of the snowfall and snowfall amounts. NBM guidance has become less bullish on snow totals for the KC area, with the most recent NBM run only giving around a 30% probability for snow to exceed 1" at MCI. Best chances for accumulating snow exceeding 1" in our CWA at this time is NE Missouri, as the NBM gives roughly a 50% probability for snow to exceed 1" and around a 35% probability for snow to exceed 2" at Kirksville. With NW winds gusting to 50+ mph for much of the CWA, visibility will be significantly reduced during periods of snow, especially during periods of more moderate snowfall rates.

Cold Temperatures and Wind Chills:

Temperatures should fall into the upper single digits across northern Missouri to the mid teens elsewhere late Sunday night into Monday morning, with wind chills below zero (potentially as cold as 10 degrees below zero toward the Iowa border).

Flash Freeze:

A flash freeze will be possible on Sunday afternoon given how fast temperatures will decrease behind the front with rain falling beforehand and snow possibly melting initially given the warm ground temperatures.

By Monday afternoon, a closed ~515 dam H5 low is progged to be centered over Lake Michigan, with a very highly amplified long wave trough over the east central CONUS. Our CWA should be located on the back side of this trough, with gusty NW winds and ample CAA continuing. High temperatures should remain at or below freezing for Monday, ranging from the mid 20s across NE Missouri to the lower 30s elsewhere.

Mid/upper ridging begins to build in from the west on Tuesday, warming temps into the 40s for Tuesday afternoon. Upper ridging builds in further on Wednesday, warming temps into the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Thursday, models suggest a 590+ dam H5 high developing across the Desert Southwest into NW Mexico, with attendant ridging in place across the western half of the CONUS. This will send mid level heights even higher on Thursday, allowing for temperatures to warm mid 70s to potentially even the lower 80s toward the MO/KS border. Dry conditions are favored for Monday through the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southeast winds may be a bit gusty this morning before settling out this afternoon. A strong low level jet is expected to develop this evening, but as low level lapse rates weaken, winds are expected to become increasingly gusty early Sunday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for MOZ001-002-011-012-020. High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for MOZ003>008-013>017. KS...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for KSZ025-102.