textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold this morning with subzero wind chill values and -10 to -20 wind chill values in far northern and northeastern MO.

- Temperatures moderate quickly by Monday with above normal highs Monday into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances are minimal over the next week with the best chances coming on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A strong, nearly 1040mb high pressure area is sliding southward over the region early this morning. This is allowing bitterly cold air to spill into the region straight from northwestern Canada. Early morning low temperatures will range from the low single digits below zero across far northern MO, to the single digits above zero elsewhere. With the wind factored in, early morning wind chill values as cold as -20 are likely for far northern and northeastern MO. The going Cold Weather Advisory captures this well and no changes to its area or timing are needed.

As that surface high moves over the area today, winds will shift to the south to southeast by late this afternoon. So while it will be well below normal today, the southerly shift in the winds will start a quick warming trend for the work week and into the weekend. By Monday, highs climb roughly 20 degrees warmer than Sunday, with another 5-10 degrees added for Tuesday through Thursday. With surface flow becoming southwesterly and strong westerly warm advection aloft, we'll be pushing 60 degrees Wednesday, as well as Friday and Saturday. Ensemble guidance For Wednesday show probabilities of 10-40% for highs to be 60 or higher. These probabilities increase for Saturday to roughly 50% along and south of Highway 50.

For Thursday, a fairly strong shortwave tracks across the middle of the country. This will bring us a chance for precipitation, which currently looks to be all liquid, and keep temperatures from being as warm as Wednesday or Friday-Saturday. The current forecast only shows a small portion of our eastern zones with slight chances for rain Thursday morning. As model variability becomes less in the coming days, these probabilities may increase and shift further west to be more in line with the deterministic GFS and ECMWF. Both of these models show very strong moisture transport ahead of the surface front which should be moving across the forecast area early Thursday, bringing a chance for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected as high pressure moves into the region. Light north winds will prevail overnight, become variable during the day as the high pressure moves overhead, then become light from the south to southeast as that high shifts east of the area.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ006>008-016- 017-025. KS...None.