textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday: - Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Sunday late morning - early afternoon.

- High winds are likely Sunday morning through Sunday night with wind gusts of 50-55 mph likely. Some areas may see wind gusts near or exceeding 58 mph.

- Wintry precipitation expected as cold air surges into the area.

- Bitterly cold wind chill values expected Monday morning with values below zero for much of the region.

* Warmer conditions build into the region for the later half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday, bringing a multitude of hazards to the area.

Strong - Severe Storm Potential:

As a PV anomaly deepens/digs into KS Sunday, strong moisture return into the area will occur, pushing dewpoints into the mid to upper 50 degree range. Temperatures will also surge into the middle 60s ahead of the front. This will lead to a narrow corridor of between 500 and 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE and several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE. In the upper- levels, strongly diffluent flow will develop as the left-front quadrant of the upper-jet moves into the area. Very strong deep-layer shear will be present, given the very strong kinematic environment. With a very strong front moving through, strong to potentially severe storms look possible ahead of the frontal forcing, within the narrow corridor of CAPE as the front quickly moves east through the late morning and early afternoon. Forecast soundings do show a layer of warm air aloft and that could entirely inhibit convection. But forcing will be so strong it may be enough to overcome that inhibition.

High Winds Expected Behind the Front Sunday Morning - Overnight:

Very strong winds are expected to develop behind the front Sunday morning into the overnight hours. Models show the pressure gradient rapidly tightening across northern MO/ northeastern KS as a deepening surface low tracks east and a strong high pressure area builds into the central to northern Plains. This leads to 50-100 microbar/km pressure gradient across the forecast area. This is exceptionally strong for this area and suggest sustained winds of 30 to 40 mph, with wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph. The strongest winds, and the greatest potential to see winds approaching 60 mph are far NW MO and NE KS. A High Wind Watch has been issued for these areas. The NBM shows probabilities of 15-25% for hourly wind gusts to exceed 55 mph across this area. For the entire event, probabilities jump to 40-70%, and then continue across northern MO. It's possible a High Wind Watch or Warning will be needed across northern MO. But my confidence was highest across our northwestern zones at this time. The strongest winds are likeliest from Sunday afternoon into the late evening hours, and begin to diminish after 06Z Monday as the surface low moves away and the pressure gradient begins to slacken. It will remain gusty though through the remainder of the overnight and into Monday.

Wintry Precipitation Behind the Front as Cold Air Surges South:

On the heals of the rainfall and potential strong to severe storms, cold air will surge southward behind the front. As cold air deepens, a transition from liquid, to mixed, to snow will occur. The mixed precipitation looks to be brief before the entire column cools down to support snow. And with ground temperatures so warm from the previous day and earlier in the day Sunday, there will be minimal impact from this brief mixed precipitation. However, as the cold air surges south and temperatures rapidly cool down it's possible that any liquid on roads (from previous rain and melted wintry precip) could freeze and create slick road conditions across the area. This potential will increase as temperatures fall into the teens and single digits, reducing the effectiveness of any road treatments. Overall snow accumulations look fairly low, with less than an inch expected through the KC area. Amounts will be higher further north, where 1-2" look possible north of Highway 36. Portions of north central and northeastern MO, closer to the IA state line, may see up to 3 inches with this system. All that said, it will be snowing while the strong winds are moving through the area. This will lead to visibility reductions with near-blizzard conditions possible.

Bitterly Cold Temperatures Monday Morning:

With strong cold advection behind the front, temperatures will plummet into the single digits and teens by early Monday morning. Winds will continue to remain elevated as the storm system exits the region and this combination will lead to bitterly cold wind chill values. Values are forecast to range from near zero south of Highway 50, to near -15 along the IA state line/ far northwestern MO against Nebraska. Ensemble guidance shows a roughly 10-20% chance for wind chill values below -15 across north central MO. So it's possible a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for some portion of northern MO.

Later Half of Next Week:

Ensemble guidance is in very good agreement in broad upper ridging building over western North America. This will result in warming temperatures across our region and we should see highs warm from the 40s on Tuesday, to the 70s for Wednesday - Friday. It wouldn't be surprising if temperatures begin to exceed 80 degrees Thursday into Friday. NBM probabilities are greater than 50% for much of the area these days so would anticipate our high temperature forecast to trend warmer in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals underneath some passing high clouds with winds in the process of becoming light and variable. VFR conditions are anticipated to persist through the period. Winds should become east southeasterly by around 10z Saturday, increasing to around 10 to 11 knots. Winds should veer further to become south southeasterly by around 17z Saturday, with occasional gusts up to 20 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for MOZ001-002-011-012-020. KS...High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for KSZ025-102.