textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle and patchy fog possible Thursday morning.

- Showers and storms return Thursday night into Friday morning, some of which may be strong to severe.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. All severe hazards are possible.

- A break from active weather is expected over the weekend ahead of a chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

With the eastward progression of a mid-level wave, rain has largely discontinued across the area as of early this afternoon. Drizzly conditions may persist through the evening, but meaningful, accumulating precipitation is not expected. The mid-level shortwave is anticipated to exit the region entirely by early Thursday morning, leaving us under an upper-level ridge, albeit only for a short time. This will allow for a break in precipitation during the day on Thursday as south/southwesterly flow at the surface warms much of the region up into the 60s. Patchy fog is possible during the early morning hours on Thursday courtesy of near calm surface winds and an inversion near the surface, though this is expected to burn off by mid to late morning as surface winds pick up.

Late Thursday afternoon, a low/mid-level jet will begin to intensify ahead of a mid/upper-level cyclone. This will draw additional moisture into the region and will allow for showers and storms to form late Thursday evening into Friday morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and weak instability may allow for some of these storms to produce large hail and gusty winds. Otherwise, not particularly concerned about this threat.

Closing in on Friday, the aforementioned mid/upper-level system looks to split into two distinct low-pressure centers during the morning hours. The leading system will adopt a negative tilt as it is ejected eastward through the Plains while the trailing low will dive into the Four Corners region. The leading upper-level system's affiliated surface low is forecast to sit along the west-central portion of the NE/KS border around sunrise Friday morning with a cold front draping into west Texas. Considerable theta e advection on Friday will place us comfortably within the warm sector and open the door for destabilization over the course of the day. Further intensification of the low/mid-level jets will also result in a well- sheared environment (>40 kt 0-6km bulk shear), supporting organized convection ahead of the cold front. Low LCLs and ample helicity also appear to be present in the early evening hours on Friday which has implications for the tornadic threat. Current thinking is that discrete cells capable of all severe hazards may develop in the late afternoon Friday before growing upscale along the cold front. However, Friday's severe threat remains somewhat conditional. It is unclear how well the environment will recover following morning showers/convection, and several models continue to depict widespread cloud cover during the daytime hours. Given the high-shear environment, solar heating may be required to reach an appropriate shear/instability balance. That said, any storms that do develop are expected to move rapidly in a mean wind environment of ~50 knots.

The weekend looks to be much calmer. Temperatures will be slightly cooler (mid 50s) on Saturday before peaking in the mid/upper 70s on Monday. The next chance for impactful weather appears on Tuesday. To our southwest, a mid-level jet will intensify along the edge of the aforementioned "trailing" low. To the north, a surface low will traverse east, dragging a cold front through the CWA. This boundary may interact with an area of greater instability and shear to produce strong to severe storms, particularly south of I-70. Details are limited and confidence remains low for this later severe threat, but it will be monitored closely over the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

IFR conditions should continue through tonight into Thursday morning at the KC metro terminals (although some periods of LIFR may be possible), with CIGs on the order of 500 feet or so and VIS ranging anywhere from 1SM to 4SM before improving to MVFR by around 15z Thursday morning (CIGs improving to above 2000 ft by around 18z Thursday). At STJ, currently MVFR conditions, with IFR likely to return by later this evening. Conditions should improve once more to MVFR by late Thursday morning and then to VFR by around 20z Thursday. Light and variable winds are anticipated through the majority of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.