textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Sprinkles to very light rain possible into early evening. - Mainly NE Missouri and then S of Highway 50

* Seasonally cool/below normal temperatures continue through Saturday - Frost Advisory for tonight, mainly N of Missouri River

* Warmer Sunday/Monday with more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returning to the area during this time and after - SPC Day 3 (Sunday PM) Marginal Risk for NE to E Missouri

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

After a chilly morning which included some areas of frost, quiet and cool conditions currently prevail over the area. Skies have seen some diurnal cumulus develop while temperatures have risen into the low 60s. A cold frontal boundary has begun to push into NW/N Missouri and will continue to drop through the area through the rest of the day. As it does so, it will effectively limit N Missouri highs to current while areas around and south of Missouri River should be able to claw into the mid 60s before topping out. A pair of subtle shortwaves dropping through the northerly mid level flow can be seen on WV imagery, moving out of C/S Nebraska and Iowa respectively. Trajectories for both tend to skirt the area. Diurnal mixing and these shortwaves may be able to yield just enough instability and lift to spark of a couple/few weak showers over NE Missouri and back into. In both cases, an abundantly dry near- surface atmosphere will make it very difficult for any measurable precipitation to reach the ground. More likely will be highly visible virga to sprinkles.

Into the weekend, seasonally cool conditions will continue given the aforementioned cold/cool frontal passage and subsequent surface high pressure moving into the area. Expect temperatures fairly similar to today with warmest west (mid 60s) and coolest east (upper 50s/low 60s). Otherwise quite a nice day with light winds and sunny skies.

By Sunday, warmer temperatures begin their return as southwesterly winds reestablish behind departing surface high. Highs remain forecast to jump back above normal and well into the 70s for much of the area. W/SW portions of the forecast area may touch the low 80s. Sunday evening too sees the return of more appreciable thunderstorm chances to the area as a cool/cold frontal boundary drops through the Northern Plains and toward the area. While substantial moisture return is not expected with the larger Gulf "closed" to the area so to speak, modest low level moisture return looks to push Tds back into the mid 40s to low 50s. Deterministic synoptic models have tended to gradually trend upward with their SB/MLCAPE depictions, including recent (12z) GFS depicting areas of >2000 J/kg ahead of the surface front. There is good capping depicted over much of the area, but also a notable weakness in capping within an area of greatest moisture return and lingering cooler surface temps over E/NE Missouri. Large scale lift is not the most well defined, so there is general uncertainty in exactly how widespread and where convection will be able to be achieved. That said, given the above, NE/E Missouri remains the best opportunity at this point in time. Supportive deep shear and deep W to NW flow suggest organization potential and a resulting hail/wind threat primarily.

Unsettled weather continues into the work week as broad mid-upper troughing again digs down into the Canadian Plains concurrent with a SW CONUS mid-upper cutoff low gradually working inland. Synoptic guidance continues to grapple with the evolution of these broader features and their surface details. This carries ramifications for how much near surface or deeper moisture return can be achieved, how far north a warm front can translate, cold frontal timing, etc.. Current 12z runs point towards warm front lifting into northern Missouri before cold frontal passage sometime Monday afternoon/evening. Result would be for thunderstorm activity going up near/along the cold front and overall coverage translating southward with the front. Then of question may be how progressive the front is (training storms?) with suggestions it could hang up with surface low over OK and may take until a northern stream shortwave Tue/Wed to fully usher out. But again, a lot of uncertainty remains here with regards to how this all plays out and in turn the details on severe and/or flooding risks.

NW flow aloft becomes reestablished mid-late week, resulting in overall quieter conditions but also increasing variability in shortwave or large feature depictions. Temperatures throughout the work week go from above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday back to below normal in the upper 50s to 60s Tuesday/Wednesday to gradual warming back into the 70s by Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conds are fcst thru the pd with sct clouds btn 8-10kft giving way to clr skies aft 03Z. Winds, to begin the TAF pd, will be out of the NNW around 10kts but will diminish to around 5kts aft 03Z. Aft 17Z...winds will begin to the back to the WNW and incr to 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>024-030-031. KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-102.