textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely tonight into early Thursday morning.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible. A flood watch is in effect for most of the region.

- A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Another round of showers and storms will be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Hot and humid conditions are likely for this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Broad mid/upper troughing continues across the north central CONUS, with the stationary front draped from roughly Kirksville through Kansas City as of 3 PM. Meanwhile, SPC mesoanalysis shows 1.8" to 1.9" PWATs in place across the entire CWA with deep warm cloud depths along with 1500 to 2000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 40 to 50 knots of effective shear. Current radar imagery shows showers and a few benign thunderstorms across the region, but with an approaching vort max and the low level jet to ramp up later this evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in both coverage and intensity. Most recent CAM guidance suggests two primary focus areas for training thunderstorms and heavy rainfall - northeast Missouri (in the general vicinity of Kirksville, which received heavy rainfall last night and this morning) - and the Kansas City metro. The 12z HREF had probability matched means of roughly 2 inches for portions of the KC metro, with the 18z HRRR continuing to suggest a swath of 1 to 3" possible for the KC metro. Thus, the flood watch has been expanded westward to include the KC metro. Given the excellent set up for heavy rainfall (model guidance suggests PWATs could increase over 2" by tonight), would not be surprised to see a few localized areas pick up 3+ inches of rainfall between tonight into Thursday morning.

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, a few strong to severe storms will also be possible, with damaging wind gusts likely being the primary threat, and SPC expanded the Day 1 marginal risk further to the north and west to include the KC metro, as well. Showers and storms should exit the CWA to the east by mid to late Thursday morning. However, the stationary front should remain over the region, and with additional perturbations translating through the mid/upper flow and ample moisture remaining, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday night into Friday morning.

By Friday and into the weekend, the western ridge re-establishes itself, with a 597 dam H5 high developing over the Four Corners region, yielding increasing mid level heights over our CWA. Afternoon highs should return to the 90s across the CWA for Saturday and Sunday, with max heat indices ranging from the upper 90s to the mid 100s, with generally dry weather likely. Hot and humid conditions should continue into the start of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Scattered showers and storms at the beginning of the TAF period with increasing coverage and intensity after dark. CIGs are expected to transition to MVFR around 04Z with reductions to IFR CIGs upon the onset of rainfall (confidence is highest around 06Z through 12Z). Visibilities may be reduced to MVFR in heavy pockets of rainfall with brief periods of IFR also possible during especially heavy downpours overnight. Confidence in VIS degradation is low at any given TAF site, so opted for 6SM for SHRA and 4SM for TSRA at this time. The extent of visibility reductions should be easier to glean come the 06Z TAF cycle. IFR CIGs may linger even after the conclusion of rainfall Thursday morning, though improvements to MVFR should occur by mid-morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ013>015-020>023- 028>031-037-038-043-044-054. Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ007-008-016-017- 024-025-032-033-039-040-045-046. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ103>105.