textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow/Wednesday with higher than normal temperatures and breezy conditions

- Chances for precipitation beginning Tuesday evening (30-40%), additional precipitation chances Thursday (30-50%) and Saturday (20-30%)

- Temperatures cooling to seasonally normal starting Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Gradual thinning of cloud cover today has allowed for temperatures to climb into the high 60s and low 70s, with some gusty winds around 30-35 mph throughout the day beginning to die down as we approach the evening. Presently, we are under a prominent upper level ridge, with associated surface high pressure off towards the southeast. This ridge will become amplified by an oncoming shortwave trough off the West Coast, with its associated surface low pressure enhancing our pressure gradient going into tomorrow. As a result, with stronger south/southwesterly flow and subsequently stronger WAA, temperatures will continue to climb for the region. Some uncertainty remains with the magnitude of this temperature increase, as thicker cloud cover may inhibit our potential to mix down higher temperatures associated with a strong inversion aloft. Model guidance additionally struggles to increase temperatures above 70 degF, with ensemble guidance like the HREF having a spread of temperatures in the low to mid 60s in its 25th-75th percentile. However, considering our potential for breezier conditions and enhanced ability for mechanical mixing to occur, have chosen to blend in higher temperatures for tomorrow using the NBM 90th percentile to reflect the potential for high temperatures in the low to mid 70s, especially for areas in our western MO/eastern KS CWA closest to the highest surge in 925/850-hPa temperatures. With these breezy, warm conditions, looking at an elevated chance for fire weather conditions tomorrow. However, with RH generally lying between 40-50% and previous rainfall, this potential will remain limited. Tuesday evening has our next chance to see precipitation across the area, with surface low pressure over north-central Iowa bringing a cold front to our area overnight. Moisture transport in the low levels has continued to remain dry out ahead of the front, limiting the potential of rainfall to lower chances (30-40%), with better low/mid-level moisture transport providing the opportunity for a more elevated precipitation mode. Looking at some additional slight chances (~15%) for thunder with the passage of this cold front, but low overall instability limits the potential for greater intensity convection.

By Wednesday, the retreating upper level shortwave will give way to an amplified ridge, helping to clear skies and turn winds out of the west/southwest during the day. Compressional warming of temperatures with westerly winds will keep temperatures in the high 60s and low 70s on Wednesday, with additional transport of drier air behind the cold front helping to drop RH values into the 20-30% range. Due to these factors, with the continuation of some windier weather, seeing greater potential for elevated/critical fire weather conditions. Subsequent forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor this potential, and determine its severity as the event grows closer. By Thursday, another shortwave will bring another chance of precipitation across the northern half of Missouri (30-50%). Presently, there is a transition of rain to snow throughout the day due to the orientation of the surface low and the placement of the warm/cold sectors of the system. While there is greater deterministic consensus on the placement of the surface low and coincident upper level trough, will have to watch the trend through the period to determine exact precipitation modes and timing with the passage of this system. Temperatures Friday will drop to more seasonally normal with greater CAA behind this system, and maintain this trend through the remainder of the forecast period. Saturday, there is another opportunity for mixed precipitation with another embedded shortwave within an upper level trough centered over the eastern Great Lakes, before high pressure builds back with an upper level ridge by the end of the forecast period Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Southerly winds slow overnight maintaining around 5-10 knots through the overnight. Some SCT low clouds are possible before sunrise lasting until mid morning. Southerly winds accelerate mid morning tomorrow with gusts of 25-30 knots anticipated. Gusts continue through the end of the period. Chances for -SHRA return after the end of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.