textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue into the weekend.

- Widespread rain likely (50% to 95+%) for late Friday night into Saturday evening. Totals over 1" possible especially along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor (50-70%).

- Significantly above normal temperatures are probable for early next week, especially Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A 500-hPa ridge is currently positioned over the central CONUS with a deep trough over the West Coast. At the surface, high pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region bringing southerly flow across the area. Aside from a few high cirrus, mostly sunny skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the mid-to-upper 50s with the southern portion of the area likely reaching 60F this afternoon. As the West Coast trough begins to advance inland tomorrow, the ridge will become more amplified causing temperatures to be warmer than today. Highs will be in the low-to-mid 60s with light winds, setting the table for another pleasant February day.

As the shortwave progresses across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, surface cyclogenesis will occur in western TX on Friday. Synoptic level forcing and moisture return will arrive in the southwestern portion of the CWA Friday night into Saturday morning with a broad area of precipitation spreading across the area Saturday morning. Model guidance has steadied on the northward extent of the precipitation Saturday afternoon with the NBM showing a 70-95+% chance of rain along and south of US-36 with a 50-70% chance northward to the MO/IA state line.

While the whole area will likely see some amount of rain, the heaviest rain and highest totals will be focused across the southern portion of the area and south of the area towards the Ozark Plateau. A warm front will be draped across southern MO or northern AR. Given that this will not be a mature system with high moisture content north of the warm front and wrapping into the system, the highest precipitation totals will be along and south of the warm front where the forcing and best moisture transport are co-located. With that said, NBM probabilities give a 50-70% of 1" of rain along and south of I-70, which makes sense given the prolonged nature of this event (rain could last for 18+ hours south of I-70). Given the long duration that this rain will fall over and the ground not being frozen, flooding is not much of a concern with this system.

As the shortwave exits the area to the east, ridging will once again build across the central CONUS allowing well above normal temperatures to continue Sunday into next week. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day as another shortwave moves across the Rockies, inciting surface cyclogenesis. While record high temperatures seem safe at this point (MCI record high is 74F on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday), NBM probabilities do show a 25-35% chance of eclipsing 74F on Tuesday. A tight pressure gradient across the Central Plains will bring gusty southerly winds and moisture return to the area Tuesday as well. Beyond Tuesday, models diverge quite a bit in solutions, but all agree that the above normal temperatures will continue through at least Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through tomorrow evening. Variable and nearly calm winds will persist over the TAF period with some high clouds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.