textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler, dry, and relief from humidity today and Wednesday

* Southerly winds, warmer temperatures, and increasing humidity begins to return Thursday onward.

* Shower and storm chances return as early as Thursday evening/night (eastern Kansas / western Missouri), overspreading the area to end the week and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A welcome quiet overnight and early morning compared to previous nights has prevailed across the area. This largely thanks to a combination of continuing gradual mid-upper level height rises (general subsidence) and an expansive area of surface high pressure descending out of Ontario and into the Great Lakes region. The latter of which has turned surface winds out of the E/NE and begun to advect in noticeably drier/less humid air. While there remains fairly robust convection (including a few warnings) over portions of central/eastern Nebraska and Kansas, expectations remain for that activity to remain outside of the CWA proper given orientation of steering winds and a generally less supportive environment. Of quick note though, convection across south-central into southeast Kansas has developed into an MCV. While its trajectory should keep it predominantly south of the CWA, it is not out of the question for some increased cloud cover and a shower/non-severe storm or two to develop should it clip southern areas of the CWA. For now, it is a wait and see before any substantial deviations from current/ongoing forecast for southern/southwest areas. Otherwise, today should see increasingly comfortable conditions advect in from the east with falling dew points and temperatures a handful of degrees cooler today in the lower 80s.

Quiet and comfortable conditions, generally a repeat of today, continues through Wednesday as mid-upper level ridging prevails and the aforementioned surface high drops down through the Ohio Tennessee River Valleys. The most notable difference may be the gradual return of southerly winds through the day. By Thursday, surface high establishes itself over the SE US and mid-Atlantic states and mid-upper level ridge shifts eastward. This allows general and deep warm air and moisture advection to begin to overspread the area. Highs climb back into the mid to upper 80s Thursday with dew points beginning to climb back into the lower 60s. Synoptic guidance depicts precipitation chances returning by Thursday evening as the dry air mass moistens and subtle shortwaves are depicted within the now SW/S mid-upper level flow. Deterministic guidance begins to vary in the timing and strength of various shortwaves moving through the more zonal northern stream and the broad/weakening southern stream trough/cutoff low. This results in virtually persistent NBM PoPs >30-40 percent moving in Thursday night and through the weekend. Suffice it to say there will likely be periods/rounds of showers of storms from Thursday evening into/through the weekend, but not as persistent as the current forecast PoPs might suggest at first glance. Related, temperatures into the mid 80s are a reasonable expectation during this period, but with deviations warmer/cooler based on precip timing and duration.

Synoptic guidance shows more substantial differences/deviations into next week, but a general takeaway appears to be more amplified mid- upper level ridging (additional warming) returning by mid-week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across the sites with SCT to OVC higher level cloud cover much of the time. Winds have settled out of the E to ENE across the sites and will continue much of the period, becoming more SE toward the end. Generally around 10kts sustained with occasional teens gusts anticipated.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.