textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet, Hot Weather Conditions Today

- Showers/Storms on Saturday

- Cold Front Sunday Leads to Cooler Temperatures Through Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

594dam H5 heights spread across much of the central CONUS and Gulf Region this morning with a developing trough over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure currently sits over the Upper Midwest while a surface cyclone is developing across the Front Range. The dCVA with this western CONUS trough will increase across the Rockies today, allowing the surface cyclone to deepen. Surface pressure falls will expand eastward into the lower Missouri River Valley, and will increase low-level southerly flow through the afternoon. There is a boundary currently stalled across central Missouri during the overnight hours that will start to move northward as this cyclone deepens. This will continue to provide WAA and moisture transport this afternoon, pushing high temperatures into the mid 90s south of Hwy. 36. Northern Missouri and locations closer to the Iowa border may remain cooler depending how far north the boundary tracks northward. A few sprinkles may occur in northern Missouri near the boundary but mid and upper-level lift support will be displaced further northward into Iowa, and that is where the better precipitation chances will be placed for today, therefore keeping most of the forecast area dry for Friday.

Saturday, while the main trough starts to close up, most deterministic guidance depicts a stronger H5 short-wave and vorticity maxima ejecting across the Plains, increasing the eastward propagation speed of the surface cyclone through the afternoon. Surface pressure falls will continue across the forecast area as this occurs. Mid-level lift may increase a bit as we start to see H5 height falls with the approach of this feature, presenting isolated to scattered shower/storm potential Saturday morning and afternoon. Trailing this system will be a stronger cold front that will enhance convergence, especially heading into the evening hours. With temperatures in the lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s at least, rain shower and storm activity should increase coverage through the evening, as prior daytime heating destabilizes the boundary layer. Mid-level cooling should help to steepen mid-level lapse rates, allowing the development of stronger updrafts, and a few of these storms could become severe. Portions of central and eastern Kansas may see better deep layer shear, with 0-6km bulk values around 30 kts, but unsure how far east this gets into our forecast area, as the mid-level trough may start to lift before spreading over our area. This may be a limiting factor in severe potential in storms on Saturday and early Sunday. Appreciable CAPE through the hail-growth zone may foster a few severe storms, and if we realize PWATs approaching near 2", may once again have a favorable precipitation loading environment producing downburst wind gusts. As for QPF, storm totals through the weekend are generally around 0.5 inches, with most models remaining progressive enough with the strongest storms through Sunday morning. We will need watch closely overnight Saturday into Sunday morning to determine of cold front may stall. Areas north of Interstate 70 earlier this week saw heavy amounts of rain, and may run into issues. However, if hourly rainfall rates remain light and occur over a longer duration into early Sunday morning, hydro issues can be mitigated. The front should then push completely through on Sunday, which will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Perhaps far southern and southeastern zones hit the mid 80s. This will also depend on lingering cloud and light rainfall activity, as there may still be some lift on the backside of the cold front.

Monday will start a cooler period, after spending much of September thus far above average. The cold front will be to the southeast of the area. Another H5 trough is progged to move across the Central CONUS this time, which may continue shower activity, with ensemble guidance suggesting slight chances generally between 25-35% across the area. Conditions then appear drier for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, with high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Isolated to scattered rain showers re-enter the forecast Thursday and Friday next week, and temperatures may start to climb back toward the mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Low stratus is occurring in northern Missouri and is also impacting the STJ terminal. This should mix out shortly after sunrise leading to VFR conditions across the area today.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.