textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/Storms linger through the afternoon. Additional chances (15-30%) return overnight, with greater probabilities over NW MO (50-70%).

- Showers/Storms possible again (30-50%) over southern/central MO on Saturday, before a brief lull in activity Sunday/Monday.

- Active period of weather begins anew by midweek, with temperatures climbing to the low/mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Through the morning and early afternoon, spotty showers have persisted across the forecast area. Models have been relatively poor at resolving today's precipitation pattern, with showers appearing to be forced by low-level divergence/weak synoptic- scale ascent within a moist vertical profile. Confidence is higher in showers gradually dissipating through the late afternoon as drier air is gradually introduced through the lower atmosphere with subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough. Presently, a surface cyclone over South Dakota and its associated cold front are invigorating the development of showers/storms over central KS/southern NE, which will gradually progress eastward towards our area by the late evening/overnight. Forecast models have increased our amount of available instability, which has allowed for activity to persist farther into eastern KS/western MO overnight. However, these storms will still have to contend with drier air pushing in from the east, alongside poor effective shear for any organization and synoptic scale subsidence on the backside of the exiting shortwave trough. With these factors in mind, it's expected that any showers/storms that occur tonight are expected to remain shallow and non- severe, with strong wind, heavy rainfall, and lightning being the primary hazards. Overnight, residual moisture from showers/storms and progressively light/variable winds with high pressure building from the north will result in an opportunity for patchy fog development through tomorrow morning. However, with greater cloud cover expected overnight, radiational cooling will be inhibited and prevent a stout nighttime inversion from setting up. Thus the potential for dense fog does not appear to be high at this time. Additionally, forecast lows will remain relatively warm for the same reason mentioned previously.

Saturday, the weak cold front continues its progression off towards the southeast as its parent cyclone and upper level trough shift off towards the northeast. Additional opportunities for showers/storms will present themselves in central/southern MO as southerly flow pools instability out ahead of a subtle shortwave and associated surface low. Overall instability appears better on this day for any showers/storms, although effective shear still remains marginal. With relatively weak forcing and lower convective parameters, the severe potential for Saturday remains lower, with likelier hazards continuing to be heavy rainfall and lightning. This activity is expected to gradually push off towards the east with the progression of the shortwave trough, with lingering activity persisting in central/eastern MO overnight into Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

By Sunday, the forecast is expected to gradually clear out. Yet another shortwave embedded in the upper-level pattern is expected to invigorate more opportunities for precipitation going into the weekend, but these greater chances will remain further northwest along the primary shortwave. Amplified ridging will keep the area relatively dry going into Monday, before disturbances embedded in the upper-level flow increase precipitation chances going into midweek next week. These disturbances appear along a blocking pattern reminiscent of an omega block at the upper levels, which has become increasingly more resolved by deterministic models as the forecast grows closer. By the end of the forecast period, the persistence of this blocking pattern appears consistent between LREF ensemble members, but the degradation of energy within the blocked upper level trough over the western CONUS remains variable at this time. As it stands presently, multiple rounds of continuing precipitation appear likelier midweek through the end of the forecast period, with some uncertainty remaining in how the blocked flow will evolve late in the forecast period (and how that impacts continued precipitation chances by late next week). Temperatures are expected to continue warming through the period, with forecast highs in the low/mid 80s by next week under consistent southerly flow and subsequent WAA.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A messy, tricky TAF period, so try to stay with me... Currently, conditions across terminals varies between MVFR/IFR, with -SHRA currently in progress across the area. Due to the splotchy nature of showers, have included a TEMPO group for these showers at the downtown terminals (MCI, MKC) with greater prevailing for the eastern (IXD) and northern (STJ) terminals. Also included in the TEMPO are ceilings degrading to IFR for sites where IFR ceilings have not been present, but exist in the surrounding area (MCI, MKC). Expecting these showers to gradually clear through the remainder of the afternoon, with ceilings lifting to low VFR/high MVFR through the evening.

Overnight, a weak cold front pushing in from the west will introduce probabilities for additional -SHRA for a few hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, so have included a PROB30 group for -SHRA.

As winds calm and high pressure settles to the north, looking at the potential for some fog development at terminals. However, with persistent cloud cover preventing radiational cooling through the evening, have elected to hint at deteriorating conditions through the morning without an explicit mention of FG at this time. With subsequent forecasts, details can be refined.

Beyond the forecast period, additional chances for showers/storms appears tomorrow afternoon, primarily impacting downtown terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.