textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continuing through the end of the week and into the weekend for some areas. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect along and south of the Missouri River. A Heat Advisory is in effect south of US-136 along and west of US-65. - Chances for showers and storms continue in the vicinity of a stationary front fluctuating between southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Lingering cloud cover could mitigate high temperatures over the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

MCS and associated MCV has pushed into eastern Nebraska as of 08Z. 850-300 mb mean winds suggests this complex will largely push east, but as the complex moves east across Iowa, it is expected to take on more of a northwest - southeast trajectory. Fairly substantial outflow extend southward from the main complex. Atmosphere appears to be weakly capped across northern Missouri, and have some chance pops along the Iowa/Missouri border from 11-15Z as the main complex slides to the east. South of this complex, looking at another warm and humid day with large upper level ridge centered across the Gulf Coast and broad southeasterly flow extending northward into the central US. With unseasonably mild air in place across the Central US, we are once again looking at forecast highs in the 90s F and dew points well in the 70s leading to heat indicies of 105-110 F across the region. The only locations that may see a slight reprieve from the heat will be across northern Missouri where the outflow may temporarily keep conditions cooler.

Area of low pressure across western Kansas this morning is expected to slowly shift eastward into central Kansas by this evening. Ahead of this system, low level jet is expected to strengthen feeding into the remnant outflow leading to additional thunderstorm development across northeast KS, lifting northeast into northern Missouri. Precipitable water values are near the daily max around 2 inches, and very deep warm cloud depths of 12-13K feet will support very efficient warm rain processes. Flash flood guidance across northern Missouri is generally in the 2-2.5"/3hr and 3-4"/6 hr time scales. If storms were to train along the boundary, this could be quite problematic, though there are few solutions to suggest this would be a possibility. At this point, it appears the bulk of the precipitation is going to be focused farther north where the cap is a bit weaker, but will need to keep an eye on the flood potential across northern Missouri in the coming days as warm front associated with the slow moving low pressure system is expected to remain in vicinity of the Iowa/ Missouri border.

Latest guidance suggests the low pressure system across KS is expected to slowly lift northward into the Upper Midwest this weekend, but eastern KS and Missouri remain in the warm sector leading to heat continuing through at least the first half of the weekend. The cold front associated with this low is expected to build southward across the region on Sunday, potentially leading to showers and thunderstorms and potentially some relief from the heat.

Cooler conditions (potentially below normal temperatures) are expected early next week, but heat and humidity return mid-to late week in a return to a very similar pattern than we are currently in.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Much the same continues across the TAF sites. This being VFR conditions and any notable precipitation or non-VFR chances tending to remain displaced northward. Winds overnight will settle out of the SE to S up to around 10 kts. During daytime, KC Metro sites may see sustained winds a bit above 10 kts with gusts to around 20 kts at times. KSTJ will be a bit lighter, but too should see sustained up to around 10 kts. Cloud cover to remain well in VFR range with much of it residing around 15kft or higher. But of note, should the Nebraska convection overnight drift further south than CAM guidance suggests, some lower ceilings would be possible at KSTJ. However, that probability is low at this point so no mentions within the TAF.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>033-037- 038. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ039-040- 043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011>015- 020>023. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-103>105. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ102.