textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon, especially between Highway 36 and Highway 50 (35-55% chances). Heavy downpours will be possible with any storms that stay over the same areas for more than an hour.

- Heat Advisory in effect for northeast Kansas and portions of western and central Missouri from 1 PM to 9 PM on Monday, with anticipated heat indices of 100-110 degrees.

- Monday night into Tuesday will see a 20-40% chance of storms in north-central Missouri as a line of storms advances south along an incoming cold front.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning (15-50% chance) and Thursday night into Friday morning (35-60% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview: Surface high pressure sits over the Great Lakes area early this morning, with a quasi-stationary cold front draped across northern Missouri, generally along a line from Nebraska City, NE through Chillicothe, MO towards Effingham, IL as of 3AM Sunday. Ridging at 500mb and above is broad across the central CONUS, but 00Z upper air data shows there are two semi-distinct yet weak centers of high pressure within the flow at 700mb and below. One area of 700mb high pressure is centered over central Nebraska, and the other is over the Gulf Coast near Houston. As a consequence of this, Missouri is within a deformation zone, with a line of weakly organized showers and storms visible on radar across southern Missouri early this morning where the LLJ is enhancing isentropic ascent.

Today: Isolated to scattered convection will continue through the remainder of the early morning hours, especially the far southwest portion of the forecast area. As the nocturnal LLJ wanes, precip chances begin to wane south of Highway 50. PoPs begin to increase again after noon as instability increases, with the weak convergence along the front expected to be enough to re-initiate scattered showers and storms. If storms are able to develop organized cold pools, there could be additional development along any outflow that results, increasing overall coverage. There is also a risk of heavy downpours and localized flooding with any mature/longer-lived storms, though widespread heavy rainfall is not expected due to the scattered nature of the storms. Highest PoPs (35-55%) this afternoon are expected between the US Highway 36 and US Highway 50 corridors, which is where the front is expected to generally remain parked. However, would not be surprised to see an isolated diurnally-driven pop- up shower or two outside of this area, so most of the area has at least a 15% PoP for this afternoon.

Otherwise, highs in the low to mid-90s this afternoon, with heat indices in the 90s behind the front in north-central Missouri and 100-105 degrees elsewhere. Areas near Kirksville will begin to get caught in the western periphery of the smoke plume that's been plaguing the upper Great Lakes region from wildfires in the Boundary Waters of northern Minnesota into this afternoon/evening as well. This could lead to temporarily decreased air quality indices and hazier skies, but no significant impacts are expected from the smoke, and smoke will not reach as far west as the Kansas City metro.

Heat Advisory Monday, Still Hot Most Places Tuesday Too: Southwesterly 850mb winds bring warmer, moister air into the southern and western portions of the forecast area on Monday, with the stationary front expected to pivot and lift northeast as a warm front during the day on Monday. Temperatures should rise further into the mid- to upper 90s behind this front, with dew points increasing into the low to even mid-70s. This brings our heat indices as high as 105-110 in the western and southern portions of the area, where a Heat Advisory has been issued from 1 PM to 9 PM on Monday. Much of the area is in a Major Heat Risk (Level 3 of 4) category, indicating that the expected level of heat affects anyone without effective cooling or adequate hydration.

While the Heat Advisory does not currently continue through Monday night or into Tuesday, we will be monitoring for the need to extend the Advisory in time for areas south of I-70, where heat indices are expected to be between 100-110 degrees again on Tuesday. Current confidence is not high enough in heat index values and placement of potential 105-110 degree heat indices to extend into Tuesday as a result of questions about the influence of convection on Monday night into Tuesday and the speed at which the cold front will move through the area on Tuesday. However, as confidence increases in the speed and placement of the frontal passage on Tuesday and the impact of those features on individual locations' temperatures, we will continue to reassess whether additional Heat Advisory issuance will be needed in our furthest south counties. It is also worth noting that Monday night into Tuesday, ahead of the frontal passage, that low temperatures will be quite toasty, only cooling into the upper 70s overnight, so nighttime recovery from the heat will be quite limited in most areas.

Storm Chances Monday Night Into Tuesday: A shortwave trough will begin to cut into the northern extent of our ridge on Monday and strengthen as it pushes southeast into the upper Midwest, with an organized line of storms expected to develop in Iowa by the evening hours and grow upscale along the cold front during the overnight hours. Confidence that this activity will develop as far south along the front as north- central Missouri is generally low, with a 20-40% PoP confined to the far northeast corner of the CWA, but the expected storm mode for any development along the front is bowing clusters, which would carry the risk of organized severe wind gusts. As such, there is a sliver of north-central Missouri included in the Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe weather by SPC to account for the scenario where storms expand south into Missouri very late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

Pattern Shift Midweek: Once the initial shortwave trough impinges on the persistent high pressure that's been parked over the Intermountain West on Monday, it opens the door for several additional pulses of shortwave energy to move across the area through the remainder of the week. There is still considerable uncertainty in how the pattern will unfold after the first system of the week occurs, but confidence is high that a northwesterly flow will advect much cooler, drier air into the region. Temperatures appear to be lowest on Thursday, with highs in the low to mid-80s and dew points even in the upper 50s to low 60s! Refreshing, after the hot and muggy conditions we start the week with.

Guidance continues to point towards one or more MCSs moving through the region Wednesday-Friday, with a slight upward trend in PoPs for Wednesday and Thursday nights compared to previous forecast cycles. We have a 15-50% rain chance for Wednesday night into Thursday morning in western Missouri/eastern Kansas and a widespread 35-60% PoP on Thursday night into Friday morning in association with this potential activity. Details beyond that are limited, so stay tuned for updates as the mesoscale details become more clear.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail outside of showers and thunderstorms. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected across much of the area this afternoon after 18Z, and should dissipate shortly after the sun sets around 00Z. Confidence in impacts to specific TAF sites is too low for a prevailing/TEMPO group, but high enough to continue the prob30 mention in the KC Metro sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001-002- 011>013-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from 7 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.