textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend, and likely into early next week.

- Heat advisory in effect area wide through at least Saturday evening.

- Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with max heat indices in the upper 90s to 105 degrees today through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the 595 dam high centered over the mid south into southern Appalachia, yielding yet another hot afternoon across our CWA with 3 pm temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Increased southerly flow has ushered in modestly higher dew points, pushing heat indices into the upper 90s to the lower 100s. The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly the same through the end of the week - the H5 high slides just a little bit further to the east, with mid/upper ridging remaining across much of the CONUS between an upper trough across the Pacific Northwest and another over Ontario and Quebec. By this weekend, the center of the H5 high is expected to return westward, initially over our CWA and then over the Southern Plains by late Sunday into early next week. Regardless, the heat dome remains firmly in place over the region, with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s (heat indices ranging from upper 90s to lower 100s) and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s through at least Saturday and likely into Sunday. The heat advisory has been extended through 8 PM Saturday.

Slightly cooler temperatures are favored for early and into middle of next week, although highs in the mid 90s with max heat indices in the upper 90s are still likely (NBM 25th and 75th percentile for MaxT at MCI is 92 and 97 degrees, respectively, for Monday and Tuesday). Dry conditions are expected through the end of the week, with only brief periods of slight chance PoPs (15 to 20%) this weekend into early next week across NE Missouri toward the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge.

Models suggest the possibility of an upper trough coming across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region by Wednesday and into Thursday, potentially sending a cold front through our CWA sometime late Wednesday evening/night. If this comes to fruition, it would bring a better chance for showers and storms as well as cooler temperatures behind the front on Thursday, although NBM guidance shows a fairly sizable interquartile range for MaxT on Thursday (83 degrees and 93 degrees, respectively, at MCI).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 536 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Could see a few low cumulus develop Thursday afternoon. Winds are out of the south and gusts around 20kts will develop after sunrise Thursday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028>030- 037-043. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057- 103>105.