textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered Showers/Storms This Evening; A Few Strong to Severe Storms Possible

- Additional Storm Chances Monday with Severe Potential

- Warmer Temperatures Through Monday Discussion:

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

We continue to watch multiple short-wave disturbances moving through the northwesterly flow regime. Surface cyclone is centered over the Northern Great Lakes Region with cold front extended southward from Lake Superior to north-central Kansas per 18z surface analysis this afternoon. Surface flow has been southwesterly the past several hours promoting a WAA regime with clear skies allowing daytime insolation to send temperatures into the upper 70s across the bulk of the forecast area. Moisture transport has been slow though, which has resulted in the failed initiation of shower activity. Dewpoints remain in the mid to upper 40s across the area. As the cold front moves southeastward and surface pressure falls strengthen, winds should back more southerly and increase moisture transport through the remaining evening hours. With increased lift along the front and slightly better moisture, scattered shower and storm activity is expected to develop across parts of central Missouri and far east- central Kansas. MUCAPE around 500 to maybe 1000 J/kg may be possible ahead of the front, along with steeper mid-level lapse rates that could support elevated convection, along with deep layer shear allowing elevated storms to organize. A few storms, especially for central Missouri and eastward could produce a few wind gusts and hail slightly above quarter size, as highlighted by the SWODY1. Limiting factor will be moisture content at the onset of forcing being available. We may see additional development as the LLJ strengthens, and may allow activity to linger into the early morning hours of Monday. After this first mid-level short-wave passes, the surface cold front is expected to stall somewhere in the northern portion of the CWA.

Monday afternoon and evening, another mid-level vort maxima passes overhead, this one with stronger dCVA over the Plains that will allow a more defined surface cyclone to develop. This will help to increase convergence in front of the stalled boundary, with stronger southerly flow throughout the warm- sector and better theta-e advection, which should help to reduce impacts of a cap that will have been in place. Eventually this will start to push the cold front southeastward again. This will result in another round of showers and thunderstorms, especially as the evening hours progress. Depending on how much lingering convective debris is present, there is potential for MLCAPE values to push above 2000 J/kg late Monday afternoon. Stronger H5 height gradient will increase mid-level flow and increase deep layer shear across much of the warm sector and close to the cold front, allowing for organized convection to develop. The big question is how substantial will the lift remain through Monday. But the combination of stronger instability and shear will present the opportunity for stronger to severe storms Monday evening into the overnight hours again. Main threat will be for hail and wind gusts above 60 MPH. The front should clear the area by 06z Monday Night into Tuesday morning. However additional mid-level shortwaves may continue to provide shower activity that continues into Tuesday morning.

Remainder of the work week after the frontal passage will see temperatures around normal to just slightly below normal. Overall troughing pattern will present more opportunities for lift through the week, that will be able to produce shower and perhaps some storm activity. Uncertainty with how the southern CONUS mid-level trough progresses is leading to an uncertain temperature forecast through the end of the week, as this impacts the amount of time in southwesterly flow, as well as cloud cover potential. Current NBM forecast has temperatures climbing back into the mid and upper 70s toward the end of the work week, but inner-quartile spread is quite large, ranging from between 67F to 79F for many points in the forecast area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions through the majority of the TAF period. Stalled frontal boundary is creating variable winds at KMCI, KMKC, and KSTJ with KIXD remaining out of the southwest. Aloft, LLWS at 40-50kts is expected through the night at KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD. KSTJ may see borderline LLWS conditions, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF as of now. Southerly winds will persist through the day tomorrow before a cold front crosses the area from north to south shifting winds to northerly tomorrow evening. A few storms may accompany the frontal passage bringing lowered CIGs and visibilities, however, confidence in timing and coverage is low at this time, so opted for a PROB30 group.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.