textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and above normal temperatures continue through the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances return on Saturday (50 to 70%), especially for areas south of Interstate 70.

- Significantly above normal temperatures appear probable for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A low amplitude 500-hPa ridge is stretched across the west-central CONUS with deep troughing present over the West Coast and a closed low continuing to sit over the Eastern CONUS. At the surface, a 1028-mb high is situated in northern MO resulting in light southeasterly winds across the area. Temperatures will climb into the upper-40s and low-50s this afternoon under mostly sunny skies with some cirrus floating overhead. As the high shifts east tomorrow, winds will turn more southerly, although still remaining light. A vorticity max and subtle shortwave will propagate down the backside of the ridge. The best lift and low-level moisture for precipitation will remain to the north of the area, although a few sprinkles are not out of the question across northern MO.

By Friday, the trough that is currently over the West Coast will begin to advance inland, amplifying the ridge over the central CONUS. This will result in temperatures climbing into the upper-50s and low-60s across the area. As the wave progresses through the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, it will incite surface cyclogenesis in western Texas Friday night into Saturday. Southerly winds ahead of the low will transport Gulf moisture northward toward the CWA. How far north the moisture able to reach remains to be determined and will play a large role in how much of the area sees rain. The NBM shows a 50-70% chance of rain for areas along and south of I-70 and a 30-50% chance between the I-70 corridor and the MO/IA state line on Saturday. This is a northward shift from what the overnight guidance showed, but still seems reasonable. Areas that do see rain on Saturday have a chance to receive a healthy amount. Ensemble guidance depicts a 40-50% chance of 0.5" of rain along and south of I-70 and a 20-30% of up to 1". Rain will exit the area by Saturday night.

As the system progresses to the east, ridging will once again setup over the central CONUS allowing the unseasonable warmth to continue. NBM deterministic high temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 60s through midweek next week. At this point, record highs at both KMCI and KSTJ seem safe as they are in the low-to-mid 70s, although NBM 75th percentiles do push into the low-to-mid 70s on Monday and Tuesday, so it can't be entirely ruled out. Tuesday also looks to be a fairly breezy day as another shortwave and surface low track across the central CONUS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions across the area for the duration of the TAF period. Calm to light winds are expected to be mostly out of the southeast as high clouds build in throughout the overnight hours before gradually diminishing over the course of the day tomorrow.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.