textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (20-80%) for scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms starting late tonight into Sunday. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts possible. Rainfall amounts will generally be under a half an inch.

- Brief snow showers or even sleet may occur Sunday afternoon/evening (mainly north of HWY-36) after a strong cold front moves through the area, but no impactful accumulations are expected.

- Windy conditions (35-45 mph wind gusts) are expected Sunday into Monday morning. Wind chills on Sunday night and Monday will range from 5 above zero to ten below zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Today will be the last day of this unseasonably warm stretch. Similar to the past few days, lingering fog and cloud coverage will make it challenging to gauge high temperatures exactly. But, highs for today will mostly from the upper 50s (north of I-70) to low 70s (south of I-70). Locations south of I-70 have begun clearing out suggesting a better potential to reach the low 70s. Areas near northwest MO still have fairly extensive cloud coverage suggesting highs around the mid 50s.

As the mid to upper level ridge, that brought us these unseasonably warm temperatures, continues to track towards the eastern U.S., a dynamic mid to upper level trough is passing along the U.S./Canadian border from Alberta into Saskatchewan. At the surface, a warm front is slowly tracking from southern MO into the northern half. During the overnight hours tonight into Sunday morning, the dynamic mid to upper level trough will transition into a closed low and dip into the lower 48, moving south/southeast through the Dakotas. This closed low will push a robust cold front towards the area just after midnight. Isentropic ascent, seen well on the 300K surface, out ahead of the cold front in the warm sector will result in a few showers during the pre-dawn hours of Sunday morning. These showers seem to linger through the morning hours when the cold front begins to move through the area. This front is expected to provide additional lift for a few thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening. Given the generous amounts of shear (60+ kts of bulk shear) and somewhat limited instability (MUCAPE values up to 500 J/kg) severe thunderstorms seem less likely. The most favorable areas for severe thunderstorms seems to be south of I-70, towards central MO with an even better severe environment farther east/southeast of our area. However, one deterministic model (the NAM) has trended significantly more unstable during this timeframe. The NAM has painted a swathe of 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MUCAPE across central MO which would definitely bolster the severe potential. This model is an outlier as the LREF gives a less than 10% for MUCAPE values to be greater than 800 J/kg. Even still, with the very strong flow associated with this system, a few isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible. As a secondary threat, a few storms may even produce some small hail. North of I-70, a few areas may see a switch to snow or ice pellets with colder air moving in quickly behind the cold front. Given the influx of dry air with the front and warm ground temperatures, any snow (or ice pellets) that falls is not expected to accumulate.

Immediately on the backside of the front, strong wind gusts ranging from 35-45 mph are expected. Model sounding indicate winds ranging from 30-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer. This strong gradient coupled with sufficient mixing will allow some of these winds to reach the surface. The HREF suggests the best chances (40-60%) for areas west of I-35 for wind gusts greater than 45 mph. But then, areas south of the KC Metro have a 50-70% chance for wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Given these probabilities a wind advisory has been issued for the entire CWA as conditions will be windy. Strong wind probabilities taper off during the Monday morning hours.

Strong CAA will allow temperatures to plummet. Monday morning wind chills will stay in the single digits above and below zero. A few areas in northeast MO may reach the double digits below zero. Highs for Monday stay mostly in the 20s with a few locations near central MO approaching freezing. These cold conditions will be fairly short- lived as the high pressure behind the cold front quickly settles to the south/southeast shifting our winds more west/southwest. Fluctuating temperatures seem to be the story with another system pushing a cold front through the area for the second half of next week. The pattern switches to a more active one bringing multiple shortwaves through the area into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

A warm front is lifting through the region. South of the front, including the Kansas City metro sites, conditions are VFR with a wind out of the southeast. North of the front, there are still areas of fog. Some of this lower visibility may linger deep into the night. Showers are expected to develop in moist advection ahead of an approaching cold front after midnight. A rumble of thunder is possible. Lower ceilings potentially in the IFR range may also develop for a time. However, once the front moves through shortly after 12Z expect a shift to northwest winds, widespread MVFR ceilings, and very gusty winds up to 35 or 40KT at times. These winds continue through the afternoon while ceilings may gradually rise.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ028-029- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033. KS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. Wind Advisory from 9 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ102.