textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through the next week.

- Chance for rain continues into the weekend, though the system bringing the rain is trending south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Despite a cold front moving through earlier in the day, temperatures remain above normal for this time of year. Early afternoon temperatures have climbed into the lower 50s, about 10 degrees above normal. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow, though with the surface high pressure centered right over the area, winds will be significantly lighter. In the upper-levels, broad upper ridging is dominating the central CONUS, helping temperatures to reach those 10+ degree above normal levels. That ridging will persist through the forecast as well, resulting in above normal conditions through the entire forecast. Upper ridging strengthens next week and with southerly low-level flow, temperatures are likely to surge into the 60s and potentially the 70s. For Monday there is about a 25% to 50% chance for highs above 70 for areas south of a Kansas City to Sedalia line. Those probabilities jump about 30% across the forecast on Tuesday.

The forecast for this weekend continues to show at least a chance for rain across the entire forecast area. However, the upper-low responsible for those chances is trending south with time. The latest deterministic GFS is now in line with the latest deterministic ECMWF, keeping the rain south of the forecast area. The determinist Canadian, continues with a more northerly track, bringing needed rainfall to the forecast area. From an ensemble perspective, the trend is similar. The GEPS ensemble has all but one member bringing rainfall to the forecast area. In contrast, the GEFS has about 50% of its members with rainfall in the forecast area and the European ensemble has most members south of the forecast area. Overall, with this suite of ensemble guidance, the chance for total precipitation of at least 0.01" of rain ranges from about 50% in far northern MO to about 80% along and south of a Clinton to Sedalia line through midday Sunday. The trend from the 00Z ensemble guidance is lower and if the ensembles follow the deterministic trend, it's possible this may shift entirely south of the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Cold front has passed through the area bringing northerly surface winds. Wind should drop below 10 kts after sunset. A few passing clouds possible, but bases expected to remain VFR.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.