textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of rainfall anticipated across NE KS and NW MO through tomorrow morning. Heavy downpours are expected which may lead to flash flooding as well as river flooding. A Flood Watch is in effect for NW MO and NE KS (including the KC metro) from 1PM Tuesday through 1PM Wednesday.

- Wide range of temperatures anticipated NW MO and NE KS around 80 and central MO in the mid 90s. There is the potential for some hazardous heat across central and southern MO and tomorrow and Thursday as heat index values approach 100F-105F.

- Additional rounds of storms area expected this weekend which may lead to additional flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The main concern in the short term is the potential for heavy rainfall late this afternoon through tomorrow morning potentially leading to flash and river flooding. In addition there will be the chance for a few strong storms late this afternoon through this evening that will be capable of damaging winds and large hail. The focus for these storms and the heavy rainfall will be a slow moving cold frontal boundary. This boundary is slowly sagging into the area, and is currently extending from Unionville to St Joseph early this afternoon. This front is expected to continue to slowly sink south through the afternoon. Light showers and cloud cover had persisted north of this boundary creating an area of differential heating where temperatures have achieved the low to mid 90s ahead of the boundary and 70s north. The environment ahead of the front is moderately unstable with MUCAPE values in the 2000-3000J/Kg range however, the stronger effective shear lags behind the boundary. As such, the main threat with strongest storms that develop late this afternoon into the evening will be capable of localized damaging winds and brief small hail. What is the biggest concern however, is the threat for heavy rainfall that trains along and north of the boundary this evening through the overnight. PWATs are near record values Betteann 2.20"-2.40" so storms will be extremely efficient with rainfall totals of 2-4" forecast for portions of northeastern Kansas and NW Missouri. This will lead to a flood threat particularly for areas of NE KS/NW MO that received 4-7" of rain yesterday morning. As such a flood watch is in effect for these areas through early tomorrow afternoon.

Storms are expected to continue through the overnight tonight fueled by a southwesterly 30-35kt LLJ nosing into the area. The LLJ is progged to weaken tomorrow morning allowing showers to dissipate. Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow morning the frontal boundary will lift back north across the CWA as a warm front. Showers and thunderstorms are expected with this feature as it lifts north with the best chances for storms (25-35%) along and north of Highway 36 corridor. Highs tomorrow will range from the low to mid 90s south of the Missouri River, where the warm front will pass earlier in the day, to the mid 70s across northern Missouri where the warm front won't lift through until tomorrow night. Thursday into Thursday night looks to remain mostly dry and warm with the war front north of the area. Highs will range from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values south of the Missouri River may approach 105 degrees with a heat advisory possibly being necessary.

The upper-level ridge will shift slightly back toward the south- central US, drying things out briefly Friday morning and lifting high temperatures into the 90s. However, this will be short-lived, as an upper-level trough and surface cold front move into our region Friday night into Saturday, bringing rain along the front. PWAT values from the GFS range from 1.5-2.0 inches for Saturday and Sunday, which fall in the 90th percentile for climatology. This, on top of the rain we could see earlier in the week, may increase the risk of flooding, especially in NW MO. By Monday, the cold front moves out and high pressure moves in bringing cooler and drier weather with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru 23Z-00Z when mod tsra will move into the into the terminals. Storms are expected to cont at the TAF sites thru 13Z-15Z with reduced vis to 3-5SM. Cigs will remain VFR thru 00Z when bkn cigs around 4kft are fcst (except STJ which will become MVFR aft 23Z). We will then see a gradual lowering of cigs thru the evening with cigs dropping into MVFR around 03Z-05Z and into IFR btn 06Z-08Z. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the W around 10kts (except STJ which will begin he TAF northerly) becmg northerly around 10kts aft 00Z. By 03Z-05Z winds will shift to the east while remaining around 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MOZ001>006-011>015- 020>022-028-029-037. KS...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ025-102>105.