textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, breezy weather and enhanced fire weather concerns are expected on Monday.

- Shower/storm chances increase (60-80%) starting Tuesday evening, lasting through late week.

- Temperatures cool down through the remainder of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The remainder of the day will be breezy and warm, with south/southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. The mid-level ridge axis has begun pushing eastward with the oncoming shortwave trough from the Dakotas, with the eastern periphery up against a shortwave lifting across the East Coast. This pattern will contribute in shifting a low-level ridge of warmer temperatures over much of the forecast area tomorrow, bringing high temperatures into the low 90s and hovering just at/below records for several sites. Coupled with the warmest temperatures of the forecast period, a tightening pressure gradient between a developing surface low to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast will contribute to continued breezy weather tomorrow (sustained winds around 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 35 mph possible). Similar to yesterday, despite the dry antecedent conditions and strong winds, RH values hover around 30-50% across much of the forecast area. This continued trend increases confidence for Red Flag Warning criteria not being met. However, dry and breezy conditions still contributes to fire weather concerns, so focus remains on that potential going into the forecast tomorrow.

As the developing surface low lifts off towards the Great Lakes, a cold front will push southeastward towards IA/northern MO. The southern extent of this cold front will dictate how high temperatures get on Tuesday; appreciable spread in solutions still exists in probabilistic guidance for temperatures across northern MO/northeastern KS, leading to ongoing uncertainty for daytime highs. South of the boundary, guidance continues to indicate building MUCAPE amidst strong shear around 40-50 kts with a strengthening LLJ to the west, increasing confidence in the potential for strong/severe storms to develop Tuesday evening. Much of this convective potential looks to remain elevated during the overnight hours, with lapse rates at/around 6.5-7 C/km during this time period. Thus, primary hazards look to be hail and severe winds with any strong storms that are able to develop.

Continued impulses along the periphery of the ridge will keep PoPs elevated through midweek as the cold front sags southward. Ongoing activity on Wednesday morning makes determining any continued severe threat murky at best for the afternoon/evening. However, continued returns of warm air/moisture south of the boundary alongside marginal shear will maintain some threat of strong/severe storms for that time period. By Thursday, continued model divergence with the progression of the trough over the western CONUS towards the Great Lakes maintains uncertainty with the end of precipitation chances across the forecast area. Similar to previous forecasts, though, the eventual progression of the trough towards the Great Lakes will usher in high pressure from the northwest, and cooler temperatures will follow to close out the latter half of the forecast period. Current low temperatures are forecast to reach the 30s by the end of the time period... Something to monitor (and look forward to) with subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR and breezy conditions are expected through the period. Should winds diminish sufficiently tonight, a nocturnal low- level jet will be strong enough to produce some southwesterly LLWS. However, guidance keeps conditions well-mixed overnight, so at least occasional wind gusts are expected at the surface. South to southwest winds will strengthen on Monday to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt by afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.