textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue through the morning hours. More sparse coverage has overall lowered flooding concerns; however, isolated flooding remains possible from heavy downpours.

- Warmer air lifts northward through the day. Areas where it rains after sunrise range from the mid 70s to mid 80s while places south of the boundary reach the low to upper 90s with heat index values of 100-105F.

- The overall weather pattern from the past 2-3 days is expected to continue with the potential for another prolonged rain event over the weekend into next week. Then the pattern looks to become a little more progressive.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Showers and storms look to persist through the night as shortwaves circulating around the SE CONUS upper level high continue to pass over the region. CAM guidance indicates a somewhat disheveled LLJ forming across SE KS and western MO. This has resulted in slightly lower than expected rain/storm coverage through the overnight which tampers rain expectations slightly tampering flood concerns. With more sparse coverage of rain, areas will see opportunities for water to drain before the next round moves in. That said, the overall environment remains conducive for isolated heavy downpours which may result in localized flooding across the area.

The primary facilitator of this activity is a shallow profiled surface cold front which moved through the area Tuesday evening. As of midnight, the surface front sit just southeast of our CWA stretching from approximately central IL through Jefferson City, MO southwest through Pittsburg, KS. The midlevel front, by comparison, resides somewhat across far SE Nebraska, NW MO, and into southern IA. This has created an expansive area of isentropic ascent enhanced by the passing upper level shortwaves mentioned previously. Closer to sunrise, the boundaries are expected to retreat back northward as a warm front keeping rain chances around, but gradually moving northward through the morning hours. Rain should exit the region by mid morning for those west of the I-35 corridor and early afternoon for those east.

With the boundary moving northward, temperatures do start trending warmer. Like Tuesday, a dichotomy of temperatures is expected with rain cooled areas (mainly NW MO) ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s with low to upper 90s expected everywhere else. Who sees lower vs high temperatures will depend on how far north the boundary makes it through the day. Right now, the forecast calls for the boundary to make it to the MO River Valley; however, there is a chance that the boundary could advance further north bringing hotter air further northward. Heat indicies south of the temperature boundary are expected to be around 100-105F.

The upper level weather pattern continues to be dominated by a ridge across the SE CONUS and a trough digging across the Pacific NW. Eastern KS and much of MO find itself in the traditional ring of fire pattern on the periphery of the expansive SE CONUS high which has been providing at least some of the catalyst for the showers and storms seen yesterday into this morning. Thursday, the Pacific NW low digs a little further south which starts building a pattern of ejecting leeward trough through the central CONUS. Combine this with the ring of fire pattern mentioned earlier and the generally active pattern across the region looks more likely to continue. The first of this starts Thursday morning as a brief wave of showers and storms looks to pass through far NW MO during the morning. As Thursday becomes Friday, the pressure gradient across the central CONUS contracts as the two systems battle for real estate. Lower level dynamics look to be a bit more action packed with multiple lee troughs taking advantage of the increased flow. There remains some uncertainty in the track of the system as steering current from winds aloft remain somewhat variable, but overall consensus points to another opportunity for rain across the area Saturday through Monday. It remains a bit far out to pinpoint fine details, but the broad scale dynamics show another setup for a slow moving synoptic cold front that struggles to proceed southeastward which could present another favorable setup for prolonged rainfall. Extended guidance shows flow opening up with systems becoming much more transitive mid to late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A large are of showers and thunderstorms continues through the morning. Most of the RA/TS activity will remain north of IXD; however, IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to persist through at least the morning. Conditions slowly improve south to north late morning with VFR conditions possible as early as 19-21Z sans STJ which is likely to see RA/TS and lowered CIGs through the mid afternoon.

Winds remain generally E to SE becoming light and variable towards sunset. Forecast guidance shows an opportunity for BR/FG development after sunset; however, some uncertainties remain in winds and sky coverage which could curtail BR/FG development. Confidence is high enough for STJ to at least put a mention of deteriorating conditions from 06-12Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>022-028-029-037. KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ025-102>105.