textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. Heavy rain will also be possible which may lead to localized flooding.

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

This afternoon, a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area, as the cold front that brought storms to the area last night into this morning finally sinks south of the CWA. This is provided much more comfortable temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The surface ridge will remain over the area tonight providing light winds and mostly clear skies. That coupled with a moist boundary layer will allow fog to develop over most of the CWA. The best potential for dense fog will be across central Missouri along and east of the Highway 65 corridor overnight into tomorrow morning. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Tomorrow afternoon, the surface ridge will begin to move east of the area will modest WAA increasing. This will allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. Saturday, the local area will be under quasi-zonal flow aloft. A few shortwaves are forecast to move into the area while will provide a few chances for storms. The more vigorous of these shortwave is progged to move through the area during the afternoon and evening hours in a environment of 1500-2500J/Kg of MUCAPE and 30-40kts of 0-6Km shear which will be capable of producing strong storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. Additional shortwave will continue to move into the area on zonal flow aloft through Sunday continuing shower and thunderstorm chances. With PWATs in the 1.50-1.75" range and several rounds of storms possible, localized flooding may be possible. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the 80s.

Sunday night and Monday look to be mainly dry across the area as the local area falls under the periphery of an upper level ridge that will become more amplified over the southeastern CONUS. This will allow temperatures to warm into to the mid 80s to lower 90s on Monday. Monday night into Tuesday a upper level trough will move from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This feature will have a two pronged effect...first, it will flatten the upper level ridge across the region. Secondly, it will force an attendant slow moving cold front into the area. Current model solutions suggest this front will stall over the area and be the focus for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the area on Monday night through Wednesday as additional shortwaves move through the area on zonal flow aloft. The temperature spread on Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to be wide with the cold front draped across the forecast area. Highs on Tuesday are forecast to be in the mid 70s over the northwest CWA but in the upper 80s to near 90 south. Wednesday, highs will range from near 70 north to the mid 80s south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Showers have mostly cleared our area returning visibility to VFR conditions. Winds are currently light out of the ENE and will gradually shift out of the SE overnight with speeds picking up to 5-10 kts after sunrise Friday. Visibility will begin to decrease with TAF sites experiencing visibility reductions around 08Z. Fog is possible at the TAF sites between 11-14Z with visibility forecast to be reduced to 1-3SM (and 1/4SM at STJ).

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.