textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong/Severe storms expected to return over the weekend into early next week.

- Some concern of river/areal flooding with continued heavy rainfall over the weekend.

- Low probabilities of continued precipitation (30-50%) through the remainder of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The line of severe storms has moved out of our area off towards the east through the night, and will lead into a much quieter Friday. Amplified low-level ridging behind the retreating upper level trough will contribute to clearer skies, with temperatures remaining in the 70s under sustained northerly winds and low level CAA. By Saturday, a shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies along an upper level trough centered over Manitoba. This shortwave trough will bring large-scale ascent through low-level WAA out ahead of it, prompting some chance for convective development in the late afternoon/evening. With no appreciable moisture advection evident ahead of this shortwave, however, the threat of severe storms for Saturday appears to be limited. This is reflected in the lack of initiation with convective precipitation in CAMs like the NAM. However, there are some models like the Euro that try to initiate precipitation as far north as the KC Metro. If moisture is able to be sufficiently advected into our area at the low levels, there is a lower chance (20-40%) of seeing showers/storms across the area Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with greater chances (50-70%) towards the southwest.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Beginning Sunday through Monday, our next best chance for strong/severe storms presents itself. Another shortwave will eject off the Rockies and lift through the Central Plains during the day on Sunday. Broad-scale south/southwesterly flow will contribute to building instability in the region with the advection of warm, moist air from the south, and environmental shear/low-level helicity will become robust closer to the evening/overnight with the intensification of the LLJ. Watching recent trends of deterministic guidance, the evolution of storms on Sunday doesn't appear greatly consistent between models to build strong confidence in storm mode. Thus, there is some uncertainty with how convection will play out. However, the greatest consensus is in a linear mode, with damaging wind being the primary threat in this storm evolution. If discrete storms are able to develop, though, all hazards would be possible. As the shortwave and its associated surface low lift off towards the north through Monday, another opportunity will present itself for strong/severe storms by the afternoon as the surface low lifts across northwestern MO. The greatest potential for severe convection remains farther east within the unstable warm sector as the cold front moves through and invigorates a line of convection into the evening. However, that will remain dependent on the position of the surface low and its associated frontal boundaries that will invigorate convective development.

There is some concern for river/areal flooding with continued heavy rainfall across the area, especially in areas that have already seen heavy rainfall with the previous system. Deterministic guidance shows swaths of 1.5-3 inches of rainfall across the forecast area through Monday, but probabilistic guidance like the LREF shows minimal/no chances of exceeding 3 inches of total accumulated rainfall through the weekend. With this in mind, will have to continue monitoring rainfall trends through the weekend, especially with convective storms producing heavy rainfall and the potential for training storms.

After this period of active weather, a broad region of zonal flow will develop through the remainder of the forecast period. Per usual, there is deviation with synoptic models on the potential for precipitation through this period, but there is some signal for increasing PoPs (30-50%) over the forecast area starting Tuesday evening and persisting through the end of the forecast period with some minor disturbances traversing through the flow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Weather has moved out of all terminals this evening. The remainder of the forecast is expected to remain clear. Southeasterly winds expected to shift out of the north with the passage of a cold front early in the forecast period, with clouds gradually clearing through 11Z. Sustained northerly winds around 5-10 kts expected to persist for a majority of the forecast period before shifting out of the east by 1-2Z. Besides KIXD holding on to low-end VFR/high-end MVFR ceilings early in the period, VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.