textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Humid conditions continue today making it feel quite unpleasant (heat indexes in the 90s), more comfortable conditions return Tuesday.

- Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening mainly across far northern and central MO.

- Next chances for notable precipitation come late week into next weekend.

- Extended guidance suggests heat and humidity returning next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Ridging builds behind the storms from last night and early this morning. This quiets the skies down for a while; however, heavily saturated low layer from last night's storms keeps dew points in the upper 60s to 70s for most bringing another soupy day across the area. Temperatures rise into 80s with heat index values looking to eclipse 90 for many, especially south of the MO River.

The good news is that there is a drier air mass making its way into the area for Tuesday. This airmass is transiting along the flow of a digging trough across the eastern CONUS. CAM guidance suggests a small surface moisture gradient descending into NE MO later this afternoon which couple with a passing upper level shortwave may prompt a few scattered showers with enough instability in the air for a thunderstorms or two. Most storm development is expected to be in far northern MO as well as central MO. Northerly upper level flow dominates the region midweek. High pressure continues to build into the central eastern CONUS pushing the primary flow westward keeping precipitation at bay midweek. This cooler, drier air mass will make conditions a little more comfortable, though southerly midlevel flow keeps temperatures in the mid-80s through the week.

High pressure begins to slide eastward late Thursday into Friday bringing the next substantial opportunity for precipitation. A progressive longwave trough and several short waves combined with steady southerly warm air advection and moisture transport keep precipitation chances around through the weekend. Timing and storm type remain uncertain at this time.

Looking further into next week, strong ridging looks to start building across the central CONUS. This could be the beginning signal of a pattern change towards more summer like conditions (i.e. hot and humid). Probabilistic guidance shows 50 to 75 percent chances of at least moderately hazardous heat with 25 to 30 percent chances of majorly hazardous heat. Early deterministic numbers show heat indicies potentially reaching the mid 90s heading towards 100F for some areas. Ensemble spread does show some perturbations in the flow that could disrupt this outlook, but our small samples yesterday and today so that the seasonal summer heat is approaching.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 116 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

An area of low BKN clouds overshadows the terminals keeping conditions just under VFR. Sky coverage is expected to become more SCT to FEW as the afternoon goes on although CIGs may remain between 2kft-5kft. Otherwise winds remain generally northeasterly looking to become more easterly overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.