textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy South winds today, strongest over W/NW Missouri and into portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. - Gusts 25 to 30 mph possible, easing as you move eastward

* Warming, above normal, temperatures through mid-week - Highs rising into the 50s to mid 60s - Normal highs are mid-upper 30s

* Next chance for precipitation arrives latter portion of next week. - 25-40% chances by Thursday

* Potential for a strong system Friday bringing rain and possibly snow to the region

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

High clouds are gradually clearing out this afternoon. A strengthening pressure gradient across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri has led to an increase in warmer, southerly flow, which will continue the warming trend with highs this afternoon peaking in the 40s to low 50s.

Satellite shows the low pressure system over the Northern Plains pulling a stream of high clouds into the region along an axis stretching from the Gulf of California eastward across north Texas and Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. These are the high clouds we are seeing today, which will be pushed off to the east as subsidence builds eastward into our area behind the moisture boundary.

The upper-level ridging pattern that has been in place across the Rockies breaks down into a more progressive, zonal flow pattern allowing a series of upper-level waves to move through, starting initially with the one currently seen to our north. The next open-wave system moves in Monday-Tuesday, amplifying warm- air advection again Monday ahead of the developing surface low which will warm temperatures even more into the 50s to mid 60s across our area on Monday afternoon. As this system tracks northeast, it will have limited moisture to work with bringing mainly high clouds again to the region on Monday. A dry cold front moves through Monday night shifting winds to west or northwesterly. Despite the shift in wind direction, the source region of the air mass that moves in on Tuesday will still be mild, so temperatures will again warm into the 50s to mid 60s Tuesday afternoon.

A more substantial upper-level trough drops south off the coast of Baja California early this week which we'll be monitoring for a more substantial series of systems later this week. While it spins producing significant rainfall across northwest Mexico, we'll be watching for it to eject eastward, bringing the first in a one-two punch of waves into the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday. Models have trended slower with this first wave, now developing the surface low on the lee-side of the Rockies Thursday morning. While this wave acts to pull moisture up from the Gulf into the region, bringing a band of heavier rainfall to eastern Missouri and Illinois, we'll be watching the second, deepening wave on the back-side of the trough to develop a more dynamic surface low. Ensembles show significant spread in where this surface circulation develops, which creates exponentially greater differences in their tracks as they progress eastward and deepen. What many will see, though, via various sources is the 12Z operational GFS run which paints a significant frontogenesis band across northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri. All we want to emphasize is that it is just one in a very large range of solutions, so don't put too much stock in this scenario just yet.

Depending on where this system tracks and how it evolves, we are likely to see a frontogenesis band develop somewhere across the Central Plains, anywhere from northwest Missouri into Nebraska and Iowa which could mean accumulating snow. The farther south this band develops, the greater potential it will have to chew through milder temperatures only decreasing the snow ratios making accumulating snow harder, but not impossible. The worst- case scenario is basically painted by the 12Z GFS with the frontogenesis band setting up over northeast Kansas into far northwest Missouri, producing heavy banded snow over a region with temperatures starting out in the low 30s and likely to wet- bulb down below freezing fairly quickly. The more likely scenario painted by many if not most of the ensemble members is that the Low tracks farther north, keeping the snow chances mainly north of our area, with perhaps a brief changeover in our far northwestern counties toward the end of the event. Dry air gets pulled in actually not bringing much of anything other than brief periods of light rain to our area before strong northwesterly winds push in Friday night into Saturday.

Northwesterly flow moving in behind this system next weekend will bring temperatures back down toward normal with highs back in the upper 30s to mid 40s Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Wind gusts should diminish with sunset. Watching for some fog/mist potential with moisture advection this evening, but winds should be enough to prevent it from becoming dense. A few scattered clouds between 3-4kft are possible Monday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.