textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures forecast through the next week.

- Isolated - scattered (15-30%) showers tonight - tomorrow morning for portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

- Scattered to widespread (30-70%) showers and a few storms, mainly for northern Missouri Wednesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows the upper ridge axis shifting east and weakening as it does, and a shortwave trough lifting northeastward out of Mexico and southwestern Texas. As that shortwave moves into Oklahoma and Kansas tonight into tomorrow, forcing associated with it will lead to isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, across eastern/ northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Instability is very weak to nonexistent across the area so the chances for any storms is quite low. So the general expectation is for be just showers. This system will also lead to a brief cool down (though still above normal) in temperatures Tuesday.

Temperatures rebound Wednesday through Friday as persistent southerly flow allows temperatures to climb back into the upper 70s to potentially near 80 degrees. With normal highs in the lower 60s for the Kansas City area, we should be 15 to as much as 20 degrees above normal. There is some uncertainty regarding this, however. A frontal boundary may slide south through the area leading to increased precipitation chances and cooler (though still above normal) temperatures. For now, the most probable scenario is for precipitation to occur across northern Missouri, in the vicinity of the boundary, with areas south of that boundary to climb one again into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. A similar scenario plays out Friday, with the most likely areas to see precipitation across northern Missouri/ northeastern Kansas, and south of that climb into the upper 70s. If precipitation occurs further south, that would limit just how warm much of the forecast area gets. That's a possibility (~<25% of occurrence), just not as probable as what's already been mentioned. For Saturday, the best chances for precipitation look earlier than in previous forecasts as the shortwave moves over the area earlier. This results in decreasing PoPs by the early evening hours across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. While temperatures trend cooler for the weekend, we may still be 10 degrees above normal Saturday - Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. High-level clouds will increase tonight with skies becoming overcast and ceilings as low as 15K ft. Have added a PROB30 group tomorrow morning for STJ for some -SHRA and lower VFR ceilings. The best chances for precipitation look just to the west-northwest of the STJ terminal but there's enough of a chance to include some mention of it. Winds will be from the south through the forecast at 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.