textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler weather today with light rain showers tracking south across the region.

- Active weather returns late Saturday through Sunday. Some strong to severe storms will be possible. Primary threat looks to be heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Current/Today:

Surface high pressure resides over KS and spans into MO with cyclonic flow aloft. This morning a few impulses are rounded through the upper level flow across northern MN. Mixing with the mid level moisture we are saw scattered rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder. Further south there is a stalled out boundary across southern KS into the Ozarks. Along this boundary there is more robust showers and storms. This boundary is expected to stay south of the CWA with the main focus of any precipitation being the wave aloft from this morning transitioning south through the day. Model soundings indicate some dry air through the low levels which will keep rain totals light through the day. Additionally, much cooler temperatures today with highs in the upper 70s.

Friday:

Surface high pressure slides east to encompass MO with southerly return flow beginning in the afternoon. This push of warmer air will lead to highs climbing into the mid 80s. Isentropic ascent will also increase through the afternoon and evening hours leading to 20% chance of showers. Weak instability in play could lead to a rumble of thunder at times, but no severe weather is expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 135 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Weekend:

Saturday a low develops in the lee of the Rockies and quickly strengthens as it moves east into KS. Southerly flow increases across the midwest picking up a fetch of Gulf moisture. Shower and storm chances will be increasing through the day with a 20-40% in the afternoon. Forecast trends have been slowing the progression of the system with better dynamics for severe weather being shifted to the west. The latest from SPC has the metro and areas west and northwest in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather. Timing for the stronger to severe storms look to have a later arrival in the evening hours when better instability builds in and a shortwave moves overhead.

Perhaps the bigger problem will be the potential for heavy rain late Saturday through Sunday. The strong low out of the Rockies draws on a deep well of PWATs with the GEFS climatology hinting at values of 2" which would be over the 99th percentile for this time of year. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance still shows a fair bit of oscillation in placement of a developing MCS. Previously the GFS and Euro were spilt between taking the path through IA or northern MO. There is growing agreement for northern MO track. Over the last 4 runs the EFI has shifted out of the IA and into northern MO with values of 0.80. Shift of tales has also shown an increase to 1 allowing for some over achievement possible. Taking a look at QPF plumes across the region shows a noticeable uptick in the Euro family with clustering now emerging within the 2" total QPF values. The deterministic GFS continues to remain an outlier, even amongst its other GEFS members showing values in excess of 3".

Model soundings show deep saturation throughout the whole column of air beginning Saturday night with synoptic forcing increasing through the early morning hours. Warm cloud depth is expected to be over 10kft allowing for some very efficient rain production. WPC excessive rainfall outlook has the region highlighted in a slight risk with a moderate risk just over the tip of NW MO. Stay tuned as this set up looks favorable for flash flooding and river rises.

Early next week:

The heaviest rainfall is expected to push off to the east late Sunday with some lingering precipitation chances for Monday. However, each updated model run seems to be slowing the system down a bit which may lead to a higher rain chances then currently advertised in this forecast package. High pressure should build in after the low exits providing quieter conditions through the mid week timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Radar shows a line of showers slowly moving south across the metro. A few embedded thunderstorms were observed early this morning but strength has been on a downward trend as they sink south. This line is expected to clear out of the terminal space by early this evening. Afterwards high pressure moves across the midwest leading to light and variable winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.