textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and dry conditions continue with seasonable temperatures through Monday.

- Above average temperatures return Tuesday and will stick around through the end of the week.

- Very small chance (<20%) for rain in northern MO Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The upper-level shortwave trough over the Great Lakes continues to progress eastward as the weak cold front clears the forecast area. Light northerly flow behind the front reinforces the dry air mass, maintaining clear skies. High pressure will build in Monday morning, bringing weak easterly winds. This setup will keep highs in the mid 70s today and Monday but radiational cooling under clear skies will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s.

By Tuesday, the shortwave trough lifts into the Northeast while an upper-level ridge establishes itself over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure moves east as low pressure develops over the Great Plains, initiating southerly flow and WAA into the forecast area. This pattern will persist through the end of the week, bringing back above average temperatures with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. There is a small chance (<20%) that northern MO could see some rain Thursday as southerly flow could advect moisture into the area, but deterministic and ensemble guidance has been going back and forth on rain chances so confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period and light winds shifting from northerly to more easterly overnight with approaching high pressure.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.