textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain throughout the day tomorrow, with the greatest rainfall >= 1 inch south of I-70

- Temperatures climb early next week to above seasonally normal

- Next chance for precipitation late next week (30-40%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

With the presence of an amplified ridge and warm air advection aloft, temperatures today have warmed into the low to mid 60s across much of the area. As winds remain mostly calm, not expecting hazardous fire weather conditions despite low RH and ample sunshine. As the ridge departs to the east, an upper level trough and associated surface low off the Rockies will traverse towards our area from the west. Low level WAA out ahead of the trough will bring a shield of precipitation from the southwest spreading north through the day. Pronounced moisture advection from the Gulf will help PWAT values rise into .5-1 inch for much of the area, with the most intense rainfall anticipated across south-central Missouri (QPF >= 1 inch). Relative to previous model runs, the area of greatest rainfall has shifted southerly. However, with that broad area of ascent due to low level WAA and high moisture returns, can't rule out the potential for light precipitation in northern Missouri. The most intense part of the rainfall will move through during the afternoon as a low level vort max drapes across Missouri, before tapering off as the low tracks further east over AR/LA/TX, in association with dry air intrusion from the north at the low levels. Overall temperatures tomorrow will cool down, but still remain above average for the time of year (mean maximum temperature around 40-45 degF, while we climb into the low to mid 50s that day).

In the wake of the trough and surface low, ridging will begin to build back in from the west, with temperatures rising under clearing skies and calming winds. Going into Monday, strong WAA at the low levels will assist with temperatures continuing to climb into the mid to high 60s, with a pronounced thermal ridge causing our temperatures Tuesday to rise into the high 60s and low 70s. Amplified ridging in the low levels will keep temperatures abnormally high going into Wednesday, before our next chance for precipitation arrives by Thursday. A shortwave trough and associated surface low will lift off the Rockies, giving us broad chances (30-40%) of rain with our residency in the warm sector of the low pressure system. As the system exits our area, temperatures will fall with the passage of a cold front from the northwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions at all four terminals through midnight. After midnight, rain will begin to move in from the southeast and ceilings/visibilities will deteriorate to IFR conditions. IFR ceilings will then persist through the end of the period, but visibilities likely to improve back to VFR after precipitation moves out of the region by late Saturday afternoon. Prevailing winds will be out of the E/SE through Saturday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.