textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning will lift within a few hours of sunrise.

- Showers and storms return to the forecast Friday night - Saturday morning and again Sunday night - Monday morning. Best chance for strong to possibly severe storms looks like Friday night - early Saturday morning.

- Seasonal temperatures likely through the forecast with highs generally in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the middle to upper 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

High pressure is sliding southward into the area with winds becoming light. With all the rain the area has received lately, the boundary layer will easily become saturated and with light/ calm winds, areas of dense fog are likely. As of 02Z, several typical several sites are reporting visibilities as low as a 1/2 mile. Nighttime microphysics imagery is also showing signals of fog in northwestern Missouri from Maryville to St Joe westward to the Missouri River. Further east there has been a mix of low stratus (which could build down to the surface with time) and mid-level clouds. HREF and SREF visibility probabilities show 50-80% probabilities of visibility less than 1 mile from northwestern to central Missouri and southward. Will go with a dense fog advisory for the highest probability areas and where observational data shows fog. This would be roughly along and north of Highway 36 as a starting point and will monitor for development further south for a possible expansion.

Focus then shifts to a couple of chances for showers and storms. The pattern is defined by upper ridging to our west and broad troughing to our east, putting the area into northwest flow. The area will also be under the upper jet and as a result we'll see several shortwave troughs move across the area with favorable jet dynamics evident. There is a leading shortwave that moves through the area Friday afternoon. This has the potential to develop some storms but the timing doesn't look favorable for with this wave as its east of of us by peak heating. But it will need to be watched given propensity for northwest flow to outperform expectations. The better chance for precipitation looks to be Friday night into Saturday morning. Another embedded wave, potentially an internal PV anomaly from upstream convection, tracks southeastward along the nose of an upper-level jet-streak. While instability doesn't look to be all that high, there may still be anywhere from 500 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE. The strong northwesterly flow favors 40-50kts of deep-layer shear. This will lead to the potential for strong to severe storms Friday night-early Saturday morning. There is another potential round Sunday night into Monday morning. Another shortwave or internal PV anomaly moves southeast Instability looks very limited during this time frame so the potential for anything strong to severe looks quite a bit lower.

Overall, with the upper ridging to our west, temperatures look fairly close to normal for this time of year with highs generally in the middle 80s, with some variability, and lows in the middle to upper 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Areas of dense fog and low stratus (with conditions ranging from VLIFR to IFR) have developed and/or built into the area. The fog should linger for several more hours, lifting into a low stratus between 14 and 15Z, with that stratus lingering through 17 to 18Z before VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light through the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>032-038-039-044>046-054. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025- 102>104.