textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Conditions Through Late Afternoon/Early Evening

- Fog Likely Tonight Before Rain, Some Dense Fog Possible

- Multiple rounds of Rain Monday

- Cooler Through Midweek, Possible Precipitation Next Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Mid-level ridge axis is moving eastward across the area this afternoon and is pushing the surface anticyclone into the Ohio River Valley. Subsidence has worked to clear skies across much of the area, but 20z satellite shows a pocket of moisture that has lingered stretching from Bates County MO toward Chariton and Randolph Counties [MO]. This has been making for a difficult temperature forecast as the afternoon has progressed, with some areas quickly rising 8-10F once insolation was able to break through, while other locations have struggled to get out of the 40s. It is difficult to pinpoint if the entire area clears before sunset, and then complicates the forecast for fog tonight through Monday morning. Most high resolution guidance depicts visibility restrictions as winds overnight remain light, and several spots with clear skies allowing for efficient cooling. Most areas will see some kind of fog, but how dense it gets in any one location will depend on several factors, including how the lingering cloud cover this afternoon plays out into the evening. The other factor, will be the arrival of eventual rainfall early Monday morning, as that will provide momentum transport to mix the fog out with winds around 6-8 kts. The rain itself though may still keep visibility below 1 mile at some point. Due to the uncertainty with how dense tonight's fog will get, have not issued on a Dense Fog Advisory on this shift, but is highly likely as the evening progresses that several counties will need one.

Attention turns to the wet forecast for Monday. Strong PV anomaly that allowed prominent troughing over the southwest CONUS has already started to lift northeastward with stronger positive vorticity advection reaching the Rockies and portions of the Front Range. Objective surface analysis is already showing initial stages of Lee Cyclone development with low-level southerly flow picking up momentum across the High Plains. As this pushes the ridge axis eastward and the surface anticyclone further into the Ohio River Valley, our winds turn southerly later tonight. There are two notable boundaries associated with this system. The primary temperature boundary will push toward the far southern Ozarks Region, while a secondary boundary will be pushing eastward across the Plains. This secondary boundary though will have a more notable moisture gradient to it then temperature gradient, with dewpoints progged to reach the mid 50s. H5 height falls should commence late tonight and begin to provide broad scale lift from eastern Kansas into Central Missouri, with increasing magnitude of isentropic ascent through the overnight hours. This will promote increasing stratiform cloud cover again. The strong vort maxima associated with the approaching mid-level shortwave starts between 09z-11z in our west and then moves eastward. This will be the time frame when initial sprinkles or perhaps some drizzle will begin to be noted. CAMS have been in decent agreement of increasing shower coverage between 12-14z, a break, then another round as the main vort maxima and trough axis move through providing more lift. There is some potential for MUCAPE to reach 100-300 J/kg south of Interstate 70 during the afternoon, but overall thermodynamic profiles are not very robust. HREF mean MUCAPE signal is south of the forecast area. A few rumbles of thunder could be possible from KC and south to southeastward. Any convective structure may only act to enhance rainfall rates for a few hours. Both deterministic and ensemble suites are favoring rainfall totals between 0.25 and 0.50 inches for the bulk of the forecast area. There some stripes of 0.50 to 0.75 inches in various locations between eastern Kansas and Central Missouri. HREF probability matched mean values also generally support this, with heaviest pocket south of Interstate 70 around 0.75 inches. Overall totals are on the lighter side of this range toward the Missouri-Iowa state line. Where the heavier rainfall occurs will mainly depend on how far north this warm front moisture boundary feature travels, and if it stalls. If periods of convective/shower mode occur, would also be scenario to increase rainfall. Hourly rainfall rates are not expected to exceed much more than 0.10 of an inch. Flooding concerns will be fairly minimal, just keeping an eye on fast responding creeks and streams primarily in the KC metro.

By Tuesday morning, another H5 short-wave trough and strong vort maxima digs into the Northern Plains and keeps the pattern moving, forcing Monday's short-wave east of the area. This will also push a cold front through the region, and may provide just enough convergence to produce some more sprinkle activity, especially east of Interstate 35. Deterministic model guidance has been dry with respect to QPF Tuesday afternoon, but a few ensemble members develop some light activity Tuesday afternoon. Eventually, another push of cold and much drier air arrives late Tuesday afternoon and evening. This will bring high temperatures through the remainder of the week into the mid 40s, with morning low temperatures in the upper 20s. At this time, no precipitation is forecast nor is any appreciable forcing available during the timeframes of subfreezing temperatures, therefore no wintry mix is expected with the Monday and Tuesday activity. Forecast remains dry through Wednesday and Thursday.

For Friday and Saturday next weekend, there is a signal a stronger PV anomaly over the western CONUS, with deep trough in the southwest, and a secondary short-wave trough across the Central CONUS. This pattern could result in a stronger mid-latitude cyclone developing across the Central CONUS bringing precipitation activity. At this time, the moisture content that will be able to get ahead of this system remains uncertain. The temperature profile during the timing of forcing for potential precipitation, also remains uncertain. Ensemble probabilities are showing 80 percent for some form of measurable QPF on Saturday, 60 to 70 percent chance for liquid QPF greater than 0.10 inches. Then, mainly for north-central and northeast Missouri, temperatures could dip below 32F, resulting in a wintry precipitation. There is one particular deterministic model outputting very notable snowfall totals in our northeast CWA assuming a 10:1 ratio. However, other models are no where near as robust (and some absolutely no frozen precipitation). And a large part of that is due to the uncertainty in temperatures. At this time, a light amount of frozen precipitation in our northeast seems possible at some point next weekend given the setup. For our western counties, including the KC metro, probabilities for dropping below 32F during the time of forcing for precipitation are very low, therefore keeping everything rain. There may be some travel impacts next weekend, especially well east of Interstate 35. Because the cold air is not here yet, and pavement temperatures are still fairly warm, determining if impactful winter precipitation accumulations will occur is difficult to do. Any travel further northeast of Missouri could be more problematic. For now, expect some type of precipitation next weekend, and continue to watch forecast trends for the precipitation type, especially east of Interstate 35. The preceding cold air advection magnitude through the week will play a role in how things play out next Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR through most of the evening before patchy fog returns again. Visibilities are expected to drop just before 06z and may drop as low as 1 SM. Ceilings will drop to IFR/LIFR levels tonight and rain will move in between 09-10z and persist through much of the day. Lowered ceilings and visibilities will likely continue through the day on Monday. Southerly winds will remain light through the period staying under 10 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.