textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will continue to gradually climb over the next several days, with highs in the middle 90s forecast this weekend and upper 90s on Monday. - Showers and thunderstorms return on Thursday afternoon, with a 40-60% chance of precipitation for areas south of Highway 36. These storms could pose a threat for locally heavy rainfall gusty winds.

- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s Friday through this weekend, peaking around 100 to 105 degrees on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Mostly clear skies tonight with temperatures mostly in the 70s as of 11pm. Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri remain under the influence of a broad ridge and surface High across much of the central CONUS leading to the clear skies, light winds, and quiet weather. Some patchy fog, locally dense at times, is expected near and north of a line from STJ to MBY.

Today we start to see a shift in the upper-level pattern as the trough over the southeastern US pinches off from the upper- level flow and migrates westward undercutting the ridge over the Central US. This will start to advect more moisture back into southern Missouri on through the day. Some of our southern counties will see this boost in humidity with dew points hovering near 70 through the afternoon, leading to heat indices rising in to the upper 90s. While storm activity should stay to our south, we will see increasing cloud cover especially over these southern counties through the afternoon and evening as well.

Thursday the moisture plume lifts north bringing the richer dew points north into more of our area. This will also bring storm chances (40-60%) to most of our area, generally areas south of Highway 36 Thursday afternoon. Increased instability from this additional moisture will allow diurnal heating to pop-off scattered showers and storms through the afternoon despite little-to-no upper-level forcing. Forecast soundings show very weak deep- layer shear suggesting storms will struggle to organize into anything longer-lived. The main hazards will be from locally heavy rainfall and isolated damaging winds from collapsing storms (wet microbursts). The bigger hazard will be locally heavy rainfall due to weak steering flow and PWAT values approaching/exceeding 2" (90th percentile climo for mid-July). Localized flash flooding appears very possible with storms Thursday afternoon and evening. Good news is that the diurnal nature of these storms should lend to the activity shutting down toward dark Thursday evening, with below-mentionable PoPs after sunset.

Later in the week, the subtropical ridge builds up out of the Southeast. This will ramp up the low-level jet over central Texas on Friday and pushing it back into western Missouri Friday night into early Saturday. Additional moisture advection from the Gulf will only lead to an even greater increase in dew points and moisture across our area. Nocturnal amplification of the low-level jet could potentially lead to nocturnal storm chances starting Friday night through the weekend. Ensemble guidance continues to downplay this potential, keeping PoPs around 15% or less, likely due to uncertainty in the placement of any potential nocturnal MCS development, but deterministic guidance continues to show potential for these storms through the weekend.

Monday looks to see the peak of the heat and humidity as ridging briefly expands eastward into the forecast area. This will bring high temperatures in the upper 90s, possibly touching 100 in urbanized areas, and peak heat index values near or just above Heat Advisory criteria of 105. By Tuesday, the ridge will retreat to the southwest as troughing increases over the eastern CONUS, leading to temperatures cooling to more typical late July values with comfortable humidity values.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Shallow fog will continue to impact STJ before diminishing around 13z. SCT diurnal CU is expected to develop again this morning, with bases around 4-5kft. As high pressure translates from north of the region this morning and afternoon to southeast of the area tonight, steady E-NE winds around 4-7 kts will become SE tonight around 3-5 kts under passing high cirrus.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.