textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today, with highs in the low to mid 80s for most locations.

- Seasonal temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 80s) expected for Tuesday through Friday.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

- Hot and humid conditions likely this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the NE CONUS and into the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, the center of the high has drifted off to the east a bit, but winds remain light and out of the east to southeast. Conditions this early morning are quite pleasant for late August, with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s for most locations (upper 50s across NE Missouri). A few light showers are ongoing across the region as of 3 AM, but these are still dealing with dry low levels. The south southeasterly oriented low level jet is beginning to strengthen a bit, but the strongest corridor of the LLJ will remain west of our CWA from roughly Salina into NE Oklahoma. CAMs suggest additional convective development within a few hours, but this should remain west and southwest of the CWA within the better LLJ dynamics (although perhaps some showers and storms could make their way into Linn County KS). Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave and vort max translating through the northwesterly flow along the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge has initiated an MCS across extreme SE South Dakota and into NE Nebraska. This will continue to drift to the south southeast this early morning, but should dissipate before reaching far NW Missouri. Dry conditions are likely for this afternoon, with decent high level cloud cover lingering through early to mid afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon should range between around 80 degrees across NE Missouri to the mid 80s elsewhere (upper 80s south of the KC metro toward Linn County KS and Bates County MO). We will get some moisture return today, with dew points increasing from their current values in the upper 50s to lower 60s to the mid 60s to perhaps even upper 60s.

The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly status quo heading into tomorrow. The H5 high remains centered over New Mexico and into west Texas, with mid/upper troughing across the NE CONUS and another upper trough moving across Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest, flattening the ridge up north, as NW flow remains in place over the CWA. Temperatures should rebound into the mid to upper 80s Tuesday afternoon (lower 90s possible toward the Butler area) with dew points increasing further by a couple degrees. Weak height falls and strong daytime heating is likely to initiate scattered storm coverage across portions of south Central Nebraska into northern Kansas by mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with this moving off to the east southeast through the remainder of the afternoon hours and into Tuesday evening/night. The question is just how far east convection will be able to maintain itself, but SPC has put far NE Kansas and NW Missouri into a marginal risk for severe storms for Tuesday evening, with chance PoPs (30 to 40%) across much of the CWA for Tuesday evening/night.

For Wednesday through Friday, the H5 high is progged to migrate over the Desert Southwest, with high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and as far north as the Canadian Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, with longwave upper troughing extending southward from Hudson Bay all the way through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. This will continue to place our CWA beneath northwesterly mid/upper flow. Daily highs should be in the mid to upper 80s (right at seasonal normals) with generally dry conditions expected. By this weekend, the upper ridge axis is progged to drift further east, so closer to our CWA, as an upper trough comes ashore across the Pacific Northwest. This should lead to increased mid level heights and warmer 850 temps, translating to surface high temperatures into the upper 80s to low to mid 90s and increased humidity for Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions anticipated to prevail across the terminals through the period. Only notable change vs previous (00z) issuance is the removal of PROB30 showers at KSTJ with more recent guidance suggesting lesser chances. Otherwise, hi- res/CAM guidance continues to keep majority of overnight/morning scattered shower/storm activity to the W/SW of the terminals, allowing mentions to remain out of the TAFs. KC Metro terminals have seen winds organize more out of the E, while KSTJ remains light and variable at this time, but too will join the E/ESE prevailing direction overnight. Daytime sustained winds may approach 10kts, but remains out of the E to ESE.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.