textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Drizzle to light rain / showers possible through tonight. Additional light rain possible N/NE Monday

- Much cooler, fall-like, temperatures settle in for the work week.

- Highs 60s/70s, lows upper 40s to 50s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Precipitation activity largely wound down by mid-morning, leaving the area predominantly blanketed in broken to overcast skies near and north of the cold front and more sunshine ahead / south of the front. Do not expect much, if any, additional precipitation activity through the early-mid afternoon for much of the area for a few reasons... noted capping ahead of the front and limited remaining time (before frontal passage) to mix it out, shallow frontal passage yielding sizable inversion post-frontal, and limited synoptic scale support (even weak subsidence) to produce any elevated activity. Have noted some brief and transient drizzle may be possible with hi- res sounding suggesting up to 1.5km stratus depth as stratus continues to drop in from the north. Generally much ado about nothing. Otherwise, the cooler temperatures are likely the main story line for most, and more on that in a minute.

There remains a chance for a few renewed convective showers and thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening, but with the main cold front now south of the area and approaching the I-44 corridor, the chances are waning quickly, locally. The HRRR has been adamant of this southern solution since yesterday among its extended runs, while synoptic solutions have tended to be further north. Other CAM guidance, has tended to favor south as well, such as majority of the 12z HREF members. Have trended PoPs drier than NBM thusly. Regardless, in the unlikely event a storm clips the southern CWA, the primary risk would be for lightning.

Looking bigger picture, the pattern is a bit messy and yields some lingering light precipitation chances through Monday. This as a weak/unorganized low-level/850mb low lifts NE across the area tonight and a mid-level/500mb open wave to weakly closed low drifts eastward across Nebraska/Iowa. Neither will produce anything of significance, but will linger at least lower-end (<35-40 percent) PoPs over N to NE Missouri through Monday. Then by Tuesday and through the middle of the week deterministic guidance suggests a messy attempt at a Rex Block over the Great Lakes region. Late week sees ridging move back into the central CONUS, but may be hindered by the evolution of the aforementioned attempted Rex Block. At the surface, all of this too tends to linger a sizable surface high around the Great Lakes. This is notable as said surface high is the source of current cold frontal passage and air mass. So, the main takeaway/result from all of this for the work week ahead is much welcome cooler, fall-like, temperatures. Expect highs in the 60s to 70s and lows predominantly in the 50s. Precipitation chances do try to move back in late work week, but will be dependent on how just how blocked up the eastern CONUS pattern will be.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

There is currently a mix of low MVFR to VFR ceilings across the area, with the lower ceilings situated mainly across northern KS and MO. This area of lower ceilings will spread southward this evening and overnight with all terminals expected to fall to IFR between 03Z (northern sites) and 07Z (southern sites). Early tomorrow morning, lower visibility will also occur as ceilings drop into the 200 to 400 ft range. Conditions improve, generally from south to north tomorrow however, northern MO will likely remain with IFR ceilings. Winds will be light from the north throughout the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.