textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief Warm Up This Afternoon, Some Snow Flurries or Sprinkles Possible Today

- Cold Tonight and Monday Morning

- Back to Normal Temperatures After Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Primary mid and upper-level long-wave trough axis has shifted southeastward toward the western Ohio River Valley, with a stronger dAVA regime trailing this allowing a surface anticyclone to develop over the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley. There are a few mid-level vort maxima and short-wave trough axes over portions of the Northern Plains associated with a 140+ kt jet streak moving southward from Canada. On the leading edge of this stronger dCVA lift has been resulting in decreasing surface pressure, resulting in a weak cyclone moving across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest this morning. This will also push a colder airmass toward Iowa. This larger scale setup will result in some adiabatic compression heating over the Front Range into the High Plains. As that short-wave drops southward, expecting the east-central Plains to see a few hours of west-southwesterly flow this afternoon providing modest WAA that may help temperatures reach the back into the upper 30s, perhaps lower 40s for the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area. The far northeast portions, near Kirksville, may struggle to climb above freezing today. Will need to watch the cloud cover moving southeastward though. If this does not clear, temperatures may be a few degrees cooler this afternoon. Mid-level lift gradually increases through the morning and afternoon hours, along with another eventual CAA push heading into the evening. This may be enough to generate flurry or sprinkle activity (depending on temperatures). Surface pressure gradient will increase throughout the day as this next wave moves through, therefore expecting breezy winds to develop especially heading into the evening hours. Once the main mid-level lobe of vorticity moves through eastern Iowa, flow through most of the troposphere over our area turns northwesterly, pushing in an Arctic Airmass that will start a period of temperature below normal through Tuesday morning. Breezy winds on Monday morning will result in wind chills around 10 to 15 below zero in northern Missouri, with sub zero wind chills elsewhere across the area. Afternoon wind chills will generally be in the teens, with some single digits possible especially in northern Missouri. While moisture content will limited, times of subtle convergence may be able to prompt some flurry activity, as the DGZ will basically be in the boundary layer with the cold airmass.

Tuesday into Wednesday, another vort maxima moves across the western Great Lakes Region and will arrive in some parts of the middle Mississippi River Valley. Most guidance though keeps most of the cyclonic jet action northeast of the area, and allows a surface anticyclone spread across our area and move eastward. A few disturbances over the Rockies will make an attempt at cyclogenesis. This should turn flow southerly Tuesday afternoon and help temperatures climb back to near normal. Through the middle of the week, the closed-low system over Hudson Bay has a lot of its forcing pushed northward, as the southwestern CONUS experiences a mid-level ridge moving in, while a PV anomaly off the Pacific Northwest sends trough toward the Northern High Plains. This sets up a short period of brisk mid-level zonal flow across the Central CONUS. Toward the end of the week, trough moves through the central CONUS. Ensemble spread is quite large due to timing differences in the propagation of the end of weak disturbance. There continues to be low end probabilities for detectable precipitation. If this moves far south enough, the area would be looking mainly at a wintry precipitation type. But inner-quartile spread for temperatures for the end of the week are large enough resulting in low confidence in p-type for end of the week activity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Radar returns over eastern Kansas moving into western Missouri as of 1120z this morning have not yet produced anything, or at least no reports. Light snow may be possible for brief period but dry air near the surface may largely prevent this. Cloud bases with this will remain VFR. Snow flurries or sprinkles may be possible throughout the day. Main story this afternoon though will be wind gusts above 20 kts, starting from the southwest, but then shifting back northerly by the late evening and into the overnight hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Monday for MOZ007- 008-017. KS...None.