textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Dense fog expected to develop again across portions of north- central and northeast Missouri again tonight.

* Increasing confidence in widespread precipitation (rain) chances arriving Thursday - 80% to near 100% across entire area - Heavy rain, >1.5", possible (40-60% chance)

* Additional precipitation chances Friday night into early Saturday, including some wintry precipitation possible - 30-50% chances - Greatest snow potential NW Missouri

* Temperatures cooler near seasonal norms through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Skies have mostly cleared across eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri apart from a few lingering clouds in Schuyler and Adair counties. Temperatures at this time are in the mid 50s to low 60s across the area. We'll see fog and low clouds return again tonight to our northeastern counties (north-central MO). Likely will need another Dense Fog Advisory, but due to uncertainty in extent, will leave this to the evening or midnight shift to issue.

The upper-level pattern shows zonal flow with a negatively- tilted trough off the coast of California which will bring a strong system as it moves through later this week. As this system moves into the Desert Southwest, we'll see weak ridging develop over the Central Plains with an increase in southerly flow and warm-air advection on Wednesday. With this, expect highs tomorrow to warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area. We'll see increasing high clouds through the day as moisture starts to pool out ahead of the developing surface low over southwest KS/southeast CO. Overnight Wednesday night into Thursday we'll see rain move in from the southwest as the Low tracks across Kansas toward our area. Models have continued to trend this heavier precip band more northwest, now setting it up squarely across our area, with the NBM showing a 60-70% chance of over an inch of rain and some areas in the center of this band seeing a 50-60% chance of 1.5 inches of rain on Thursday. Good news is because of the lack of recent rainfall as well as warm ground temperatures, this should just be a good, beneficial rainfall with low potential for flooding.

As this first system moves out Thursday night, we'll be watching a second trough move through the Four Corners region. This second system is trending weaker, now looking like more of an open-wave system as it moves through on Friday. The GEFS ensemble members continue to look cooler with a more southerly track with the Low, bringing a band of light snow across northwest Missouri, likely staying north of the KC Metro. The ECMWF members tend to be a bit farther north with the band, setting it up more across far southeast Nebraska. Both scenarios likely bring snow to northwest Missouri areas, just differing in amounts. Long-range ensembles show a 30-35% chance of an inch of snow across areas just north of St Joseph and Trenton, with a 20-25% chance across the KC Metro northeast to Kirksville. Probabilities really drop off between 1-2 inches, so expect generally less than 2 inches of snow in this band, wherever it sets up at this time. Timing looks to be delayed as well, with rain changing to snow Friday evening and continuing into Saturday morning.

Cooler air moves in on the back-side of this system for the weekend with highs back down in the mid 30s to low 40s Saturday and Sunday. Deterministic models both show a second weak shortwave moving through Saturday afternoon, potentially bringing flurries or a light dusting of snow. Ensembles may be smoothing this out, leading to non-mentionable PoPs, so will dig into this more as we get closer to Saturday. High pressure slides across the region on Sunday leading to dry, cool conditions with temperatures starting to rebound on Monday as southwesterly flow returns.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions are very likely through the forecast. STJ may see some river valley fog this morning but guidance shows only a 10-15% chance for fog development. Will keep fog out of the forecast there for now and amend as needed. Otherwise, light winds overnight will increase from the south-southwest tomorrow with a few gusts to around 20kts possible. Winds diminish and back to the south-southeast with loss of daytime heating.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.