textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances today through Friday. Strong to severe storms are possible tonight and again late Friday. Heavy rain will also be possible. There is a Flash Flood Watch out for northwestern Missouri and far northeastern Kansas

* Warmer and humid conditions return by the end of the week, continuing through the 7-day forecast. * Heat index values into the 90s, including mid-upper 90s, possible at times next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Rain and thunderstorms chances are in store for the short term forecast across western KS and northern MO. The high pressure and upper level ridging that has been dominating the pattern for the last couple of days will finally shift off to the east. As the ridging aloft moves off, a shortwave trough will move from the Rocky Mountains into the Central Plains. Trapped between this incoming shortwave and an exiting high, south to southwest winds will bring in some good WAA. This will drive temperatures and dewpoints up across the region. While temperatures are only expected to change by a few degrees, dewpoints are expected to climb into the 60s. Today will have some upper level support with the shortwave and good moisture, but we will overall be lacking any type of forcing/trigger at the sfc. So while its highly likely that we will destabilize enough, the question becomes when does rain/storms fire and how isolated is it. Storms should be largely unorganized with thunder/lightning being the primary concern. Can't rule out brief gusty winds or small hail if a storms gets tall enough, but shear isn't super great. This with the lack of forcing will leave the CWA with isolated pop up storms in the afternoon and evening that are unorganized.

Heading into tonight, mainly for areas north of I-70, storms are expected to continue as the LLJ kicks in and WAA persists. This will provide a slight boost to the shear. So if there is anything more organized it will be tonight into Friday. Heavy Rain, wind, small hail and lightning look to be the primary concerns here. Any convection that lasts into the early morning hours Friday should weaken as the LLJ diminishes. PWATs will be high across northwestern MO and far eastern KS in and around the 90th percentile. Despite the dry soils, there looks to be an axis of 1-3 inches of rain that will fall across northeastern KS into central IA. This would run through the bluff areas across northern MO and could be a concern for urban areas and flashy rivers, especially if totals lean towards the high end (3 inches). Due to the concerns for heavy rain a Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the northwestern portions of the CWA this afternoon through Friday morning.

Looking into Friday, guidance is really hinting at a lull in rain/storm activity through the late morning into the early afternoon which would give EAX a chance to destabilize again for the afternoon. If skies clear this could allow for good airmass recovery. Good lapse rates, strong instability and good shear. The better chances for strong to severe storms will mainly be across the northern third of the forecast area, well north of I-70 (US-36 corridor and north). This line up well with the SPC outlook for those of us who love a visual.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 340 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Kicking off the long term, there is upper level ridging that will amplify across the central CONUS Saturday into Sunday and a deepening trough across the Pacific Northwest. This amplified trough will move east with time into the eastern CONUS for early next week. Meanwhile, a cut off low will eject out of the TX and OK for the weekend. POPs will build across the region from the southwest to the northeast late Saturday into Sunday as this cut off low builds in. Ahead of this incoming low, mid level and low level WAA will be well underway. Guidance has taken quiet the jump with the latest runs tapping right into the gulf. Sfc dewpoints climb into the low to mid 70s at times for the NBM, which could be a bit overdone at times throughout the extended forecast. Regardless, this signals a good potential for some afternoon destabilization with highs in the 80s. The one variable holding us back here will be our wind shear. Its overall very weak and is often falling short of 25-30 kt threshold needed for more organized convection. Model variability still exists as well which leads to overall lower confidence on severe potential. Now if shear increases the game is on for some stronger storms, but until then thunder and widespread rain looks to be the name of the game. The one thing to keep an eye on for this system is how much rain we get. Still a lot of time here and some uncertainty in rain amounts and just exactly where that axis of higher rainfall will be, but something to watch.

Precipitation chances will linger into early next week with POPs around 40-70% Monday morning. Precip chances will decrease from west to east with time with more drier air working in. As the cut off low pulls away to the northeast, the larger scale ridging will take over as the dominant pattern Tuesday. With largely southerly to southwesterly flow, WAA will remain across the region. That combined with the ridging will lead to some warm and sticky conditions for EAX. Again, the average among guidance did jump a bit in regards to temps and dewpoints from roughly Tuesday through Thursday. Highs generally are in the low 90s, but dewpoints range from the lower to upper 70s. The combination of high temps and dewpoints due lead to some heat index concerns, however, there is lower confidence in dewpoints reaching the upper 70s. Its going to take some serious WAA out of the gulf to actualize those higher dewpoints. Long and short is if you are susceptible to high heat keep an eye on Tuesday through Thursday, but dont be shocked if there is a trend downward away from those higher dewpoints.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR to IFR conditions are expected through the period. Largely VFR conditions are expected into this afternoon. High to mid level clouds will continue to move in from the west and may be scattered at times. There is a chance for scattered to isolated rain/storms to develop for areas mainly along and north of I-70. Lower ceilings MVFR ceilings around 4-6 kft will be possible with the isolated rain/storms should they move overhead. Earliest for storms to start would be 18Z (1PM). Activity is expected to diminish at the KC terminals around 00Z. Activity may linger into the early morning hours for KC Friday but confidence is low. For terminals north and west of KC (north I-70 and west I-35) can expect rain and storm chances to persist into Friday morning. Heavy rain will be possible with any rain late Thursday into Friday night which could drop visibilities and ceilings briefing to IFR under the heaviest rain. Rain and storms will pull northeast Friday morning for the end of the TAF period.

South to south-southwest winds are expected across Missouri and Kansas. Winds are expected to become breezy at times this afternoon and again tonight with gusts around 20 to 22kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for MOZ001>005-011>013-020. KS...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ025-102.