textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* General warming trend ahead. - Warmth/heat peaks on Tuesday and Friday - Touching 90 possible Tue and Fri into weekend

* Limited appreciable precipitation chances - Tuesday as cold front drops in (<20% north, up to 40% south) - Late week into weekend, but highly uncertain

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A largely quiet and pleasant Mother's Day across the area today. Surface high pressure has kept winds on the lighter side, generally northerly in direction. Aloft, some higher level cloud cover associated with passing shortwaves within the broader NW flow. All coupled with the cold frontal passage yesterday and overnight, temperatures are notably cooler with many currently in the 60s and within a couple degrees of forecast highs.

The week ahead will be highlighted by generally warming temperatures and limited precipitation opportunities. This will get kicked off as a large area of surface high pressure drifts eastward tonight into Monday, spread across the Great Lakes and back through the lower Mississippi River Valley. This will turn winds more southwesterly and remain in place through Tuesday. Coupled with height rises/ridging within the broader NW mid-upper level flow, temperatures quickly rise back above normal with forecast highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and 80s respectively Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday will be the warmest day of the first half of the week as a cold front will drop through the area and will also provide the area with its next chance for any precipitation. Synoptic and ensemble guidance remain in good agreement on the northern stream shortwave trough that will move across the Southern Canadian Plains and into the Great Lakes Region late Monday into Tuesday. Given the northern displacement of the best mid-upper level lift and the accompanying surface low, shower/storm chances locally will tend to rely on the surface front itself. Some better agreement on the environment ahead of the front, yielding to around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE concurrent with 30- 40+ kts of deep shear (notably unidirectional). While much of the area will be strongly capped, noted weaknesses in capping among the suites with a narrow moisture plume ahead of the front. Some question to how far down the line convection goes with deterministic showing the area within a surface pressure "saddle point" leading to some question on just how much convergence/lift into the front, aside from the front itself. Trend too has been to slow this down a little, placing the front into NW Missouri by the early afternoon/18z Tuesday. Main risks would be large hail and strong/damaging winds. Agree with the 1930z SPC Day 3 update bringing the Marginal a bit further north, now covering a majority of the area.

Briefly 'cooler' Wednesday/Thursday behind the Tuesday cold front. Cooler being used lightly with anticipated difference only a handful of degrees cooler. During this time frame, Great Lakes mid-upper troughing translates eastward while a cutoff low drops down along the PNW and California Coasts. In between, this will allow ridging and 850mb temps into the teens deg C to move into and across the central CONUS. And while the pattern is expected flatten Friday into the weekend, 850mb temps remain depicted in the low to mid teens deg C. Most notable result of all this will be increasing temperatures late week into the weekend, including the potential (if not likely) rise into the 90s. There remains a lot of uncertainty with regards to temperatures here though. As of the 12z runs, Canadian ensemble is notably warmer than the GFS and Euro ensembles. This is at least in part due to their varied handling of the western CONUS cutoff low/trough and shortwave(s) strength/timing. NBM too has continued to come in "hot" compared to GFS/Euro and even the Canadian. New forecast package has low 90s Friday into the weekend, notably down from mid 90s in previous forecast cycle, after collaboration with other offices and WPC.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet, VFR conditions to prevail through the duration of the TAF period at all four terminals. Variable winds are expected during much of the early half of the TAF period before settling out of the southwest between 06Z and 09Z. Lingering high clouds will also fade away in the coming hours, leaving behind clear conditions that should persist throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.