textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A major warmup is forecast this week, with high temperatures well into the 90s expected by the end of the week.

- Daily peak heat index values near or just above 100 degrees are forecast Friday through Sunday.

- Significant rainfall is not expected over the next seven days, but there is small chance (15-25%) of showers during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday south of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The forecast over the next week will be dominated by the omega block that has set up over the CONUS. The region will be firmly under the strong H5 ridging of the block, but the greatest H5 thickness anomalies will occur across the northern Rockies, northern Great Plains, and northern Great Lakes today through the middle of the week. The H5 height rises will reach the local forecast area starting Wednesday, resulting in a significant warm up for the latter half of the week. While H5 heights will be near the 80-90th percentiles per the LREF (594-600 dm), H8 temperatures will only rise to the 60-70th percentiles (21-23C), which should keep temperatures from getting to the extreme values expected over the northern tier of the CONUS.

High temperatures today and Tuesday will reach typical July values, in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Wednesday through Friday will see temperatures creep into the lower to middle 90s. The worst of the heat looks to be this weekend, where widespread highs in the middle to upper 90s are currently forecast. Ensemble guidance shows low-level specific humidity values staying near normal values, so extreme humidity is not expected to accompany the heat. Nevertheless, dew point temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s combined with the heat will yield peak heat index values in the upper 90s to lower 100s Friday through Sunday.

While significant widespread rainfall is not forecast over the next week due to the strong ridging, some Gulf moisture may sneak northward into the lower MO River Valley. Combined with some weakness along the southern edge of the ridge, this moisture may be sufficient to trigger a stray shower/storm or two for spots south of I-70 during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The TAFs are VFR. High pressure centered NE of the region will keep winds steady from the E around 4-8 kts through the forecast period. With elevated humidity levels continuing around the 925-850mb layer, expect ongoing FEW CU development to persist. Cloud bases will be around 5kft.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.