textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures likely Thursday afternoon as highs climb into the lower 90s.

- Strong storms possible Thursday evening as a strong cold front moves through the area.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday and Friday, especially for areas west of I-35.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Temperatures will turn hot once again today - Thursday due to broad upper ridging over the western half of the CONUS and strong southerly to southwesterly low-level flow. Highs today seem likely to top out in the upper 80s, with just a 10% chance for 90 degrees or higher at Kansas City (MCI). Temperatures surge warmer on Thursday ahead of strong cold front moving south into the area. 1000- 850mb thickness values as high as 144.1 dam will support highs in the lower to potentially middle 90s. If everything comes together perfectly with the timing of the front and compressional warming just ahead of the front during the afternoon/peak heating time frame, we could see highs near 95 for the Kansas City area. This would demolish the previous daily max record and be 2 degrees above warmest March temperature ever for KC. Using our model certainty tool, there is about a 15% chance for the high to reach or exceed 95 at MCI Thursday. Unlikely, but certainly achievable.

The other aspect to this warmth and the cold front moving through, will be the potential for strong storms to develop Thursday evening. Ahead of the front a strong cap at the base of the EML will very likely inhibit convection through the afternoon and peak heating. Convection looks more likely behind the front as the cap erodes. But this results in significantly less instability and a narrow time frame for strong storm potential. Current guidance suggest the best potential after 00Z and before 06Z. Since low-level winds will already be strong behind the front, any storm could locally enhance wind gusts.

One last item for Thursday, elevated fire weather conditions look possible west of I-35. This looks more likely behind the front with the strong dry advection and windy conditions. Relative humidity values improve through the evening as temperatures cool. So we're really looking at a couple of hours when the best potential exists. Elevated fire weather conditions look possible again on Friday with humidity values as low as 15-20 across northwest MO and northeast KS. Winds will be decreasing through the day but there may be a few gusts of 20-25 mph during the driest part of the day. At this time, no fire weather headlines are planned.

Cooler and drier conditions move into the area Friday and Saturday, with temperatures close normal for the time of year. For the early part of next week, the warm pattern mentioned above reloads, with strong southwesterly flow developing. It looks like there will better access to Gulf moisture and that may lead to unsettled weather Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions to continue to prevail across the TAF sites through this period. Southerly winds overnight shift more southwesterly by mid-late morning, continuing through the remainder of the period. Winds gust into the low-mid 20s kts late morning into the afternoon, easing by around/after 00z Thursday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KMCI: 90/1907 KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.