textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Above normal temperatures and breezy south southwesterly winds are expected today through Thursday.

- Windiest day Thursday with gusts in the mid-upper 30s mph likely

* Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday, as early as the afternoon but with greater chances into the evening and overnight hours. - Strong to severe storms and locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the primary thunderstorm threats.

* Unsettled/active weather across the wider area likely continues into the weekend and early work week, especially Sunday PM into Monday AM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Looking at the big picture, overall quiet conditions tended to prevail across the immediate area with mid-upper level NW flow continuing to prevail. A shortwave riding through this flow is noted on GOES WV imagery, with most pronounced lift/indications crossing Lake Michigan. This too is reflected on radar with storms initially going up in that area and in the vicinity of surface boundary and ribbon of moisture. Hi-res guidance has tended to ease off "lighting up" the convergence area/moisture ribbon back to the SW, leaving the area dry. That said, should bit deeper lift be achieved back toward/along the eastern Iowa/Missouri border, a thunderstorm or two may yet be possible into the early evening. Shear profiles are not terribly supportive of any organization, so expectation would be pulsey storms mostly capable of non-severe hail and wind. But, again, probabilities here are quite low given recent hi-res trends.

Wednesday sees mid-upper level ridging build across central CONUS in response to large mid-upper trough moving onshore and into the Intermountain West. This keeps overall conditions quiet, but likely at least a cloudier start to the day with increasing low-level moisture return. Said cloud cover likely keeps temperatures down a couple degrees versus today as well. Otherwise, areas well to the north (Iowa/Nebraska) will be notably warmer with clear skies and the 850mb thermal ridge nosing into those areas.

Thursday will see active weather and storm chances return to the area as the previously mentioned western trough begins to move out into the High Plains. Areas of Lee Cyclogenesis coupled with the SE CONUS surface high will yield another breezy/windy day with SW wind gusts likely into the mid-upper 30s mph for much of the area. Aside from the low level WAA and moisture advection, the area too will see deeper moisture begin to return. While not extreme, forecast PWats of >1.25 inches push toward 90-95 percent of season climatology via GFS/Euro ensembles. More on that in a second. Warm sector environment tends to be a bit messy with expected cloud cover and some expectation of elevated shower/non-severe storm potential Thursday morning along the leading edge of strong WAA push and deeper moisture return. How much does the environment then destabilize ahead of the front later in the day/evening? Great question. Prevailing sentiment is that with relatively tight T/Td spreads in place, >1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE may be able to be achieved within moderate lapse in the profile. Further west closer to the front (central/eastern Kansas), better chances for clearing yield a ribbon of MUCAPE values >2000-2500 J/kg nosing northward. Overall wind profiles yield mean winds mostly parallel to the surface front and limited opportunity for discrete organization to move off of and remain discrete. Conceptually, this tends to yield convection quickly lining out along/just ahead of the front and being ushered eastward. Concerns would initially be for hail and wind, then transitioning to wind and heavy rain. Deep wind profiles/orientation tend not to appear supportive of prolonged strong/severe MCS capability, but possible local scale evolutions yield a longer sustained strong/severe bowing segment. The depicted front is progressive through the area, which should limit water issues, but areas that see a couple/few storms stream over may see some localized water issues with efficient rainfall (longer/skinnier CAPE profiles) and the increasing PWats. Timing wise, guidance points towards an evening into early overnight event for much of the area, with initial storms going up over central/eastern Kansas around/after 5-6pm and then translating E to SE.

Mid-upper level pattern takes on more of an Omega Block look as the western CONUS mid-upper trough develops into a cutoff low near/along the US-Canadian border and amplifies a narrow area of ridging over the Great Lakes. This looks to keep the area on the cool side of the pattern and relatively active, including multiple shortwaves and a stalled front lifting back northward. Temperatures Friday, through the weekend, and into next week ease back a handful degrees, around or just above seasonal norms this time of the year. This also tends to place Sunday into Monday as the highest confidence shower/storm windows as a stronger shortwave trough moves through the southern stream and induces pronounced Cyclogenesis. Model discrepancy in N/S placement and potentially gunky environment ahead of the surface low limits confidence in details for strong/severe potential, but would be the next opportunity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the sites and should do so for at least a majority of the current period. Currently, winds are breezy/gusty out of the SW with the metro sites gusting into the mid/upper 20s kts and KSTJ just a couple kts less. The breezy conditions carry on past 00z, gradually easing through the overnight. An MVFR cloud deck may stream in from the S/SW during latter portions of the period, but some uncertainty on how quick and how low it will be, so have kept low VFR with this issuance. Will monitor that trend over the next couple of issuances.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.