textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe storms may develop along and south of I-70 later tonight. The strongest storms can produce large hail (less than 2 inches), damaging winds, and an isolated tornado is possible in the vicinity of and south/southeast of the Kansas City metro.

*Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue through Monday morning.

*Hot and humid conditions barge in this afternoon and linger until midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Short-term guidance has continued to struggle to resolve convection off to the west this evening, leading to ample uncertainty regarding how the forecast will evolve over the next 24 hours. Within the several hours, storms across eastern Kansas have fallen comfortably below severe limits, and this is expected to remain an appropriate descriptor for most as these storms move through the area overnight. An isolated severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out due to lingering elevated instability, but the primary threat with overnight convection will be locally heavy rainfall. Mean winds between 15-20 kts, PWATs near or in excess of 1.6", and model QPF output approaching FFG has reinforced flooding concerns as we head into the overnight hours tonight.

The remainder of Sunday is murky at best. By mid/late afternoon, a high CAPE environment is expected to develop. Coupled with improved 0-6 km bulk shear, conditions do look to be conducive for organized storm development and maintenance. How this environment is realized remains the question. There are several scenarios that could unfold, whether it be just one or potentially a combination of multiple. First, behind the overnight band of showers/storms, some CAMs depict an additional complex of storms moving into northeastern MO, continuing southeastward through the morning and early afternoon hours. As it does so, it could encounter the area of increased instability and shear which may open the door for more organized updrafts within the cluster. Another solution for late morning/early afternoon excludes this complex of storms entirely, instead opting for convective initiation near a weak surface warm front allowing for some erosion of the cap and promoting initiation by mid- afternoon along the I-70 corridor. A third scenario involves storms forming right along the MO/KS border in the evening. That all said, confidence in any one scenario is low with substantial uncertainty surrounding the mode(s) of ascent, which could be anything from the previously mentioned warm front to a outflow boundary from overnight convection or even a subtle shortwave...none of which seem to be particularly well highlighted in the high-resolution guidance. Still, there is a clear, but very conditional, threat for severe weather on Sunday. If storms are able to fire, then all hazards would be on the table.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have moved eastward of the TAF sites and the forecast area with VFR conditions. Conditions are expected to go to MVFR at all the TAF sites between 03z-07z as strong and severe storms are expected to develop along a boundary from will continue along and south of I-70 later tonight including the KC metro vicinity. There is a potential for large hail (less than 2 inches), damaging winds and an isolated tornado may be possible. Between 03z and 04z there is some uncertainty in which the line will develop in far eastern KS so have placed prob30 for the TAF time period but by 05z-07 should expect TSRA impacts along with gusty winds as confidence continues to increase on the development of thunderstorms which TEMPO is expected. Expecting things to improve from MVFR to VFR after 14z tomorrow.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.