textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Arctic air returns to the region and continues into the weekend. There is a 20-40% chance of wind chills reaching -15 F Saturday morning.

* Several light snow events possible today, Friday, Sunday and Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Regional radar is beginning to depict weak frontogenetic band of snow extending from eastern Nebraska into southern Iowa and into northeastern Missouri as of 08Z. This band, associated with 700 mb frontogenetic forcing, is relatively weak and is fighting a fair amount of dry air in the near surface layer. With the upper jet largely separated into two branches- one to the northeast of the area and the strongest focused south, there is little additional upper level support for this band. As such, largely expect flurries with this band as it works south and east throughout the day, though there is a low chance for light snow accumulations (a tenth or two) along the Iowa/Missouri border. HREF ensemble suggests 20-40 % chance of accumulating snow across northwestern Missouri, with similar probabilities with the HREF. Probabilities decrease gradually as the band builds south and east as frontogenesis weakens even further and the dry air pours into the region under the influence of northeasterly winds. 00Z TOP sounding shows 925 hpa just a few degrees below freezing, but temperatures are expected to fall nearly 5 C throughout the night, and continue to fall another few degrees today. As such, temperatures are expected to move little today.

Temperatures continue to fall tonight as arctic high centered over eastern Saskatchewan pushes south through the Western Plains. Subsidence and dry air associated with the high will lead to clearing skies building into the region from the northeast, but could see a shallow layer of cumulus develop on Friday coincident with the dendritic layer leading to a few more flurries through the day time hours. This cloud cover is expected to quickly die away Friday evening, allowing temperatures to fall into the sub-zero range Friday night. By Saturday morning, LREF ensemble still suggests a 20-40 percent chance of wind chills eclipsing -15 F. With the ridge axis shifting east of the area during the day Saturday and southwest flow beginning to develop, expect temperatures to rebound Saturday and continue to build on the warming on Sunday. However, a shortwave across the Pacific NW on Friday crests the upper ridge across the west and then dives southeast into the central US by Sunday morning. This could bring additional light snow to the region Sunday morning. LREF ensemble probabilities range from 30-50% for accumulating snow along and north of the MIssouri River, with the highest probabilities along the Iowa/Missouri border. Probabilities suggest snowfall amounts will generally be a few tenths of an inch or less.

Upper level ridge across the west gradually shifts east Monday into Tuesday; however, northwesterly flow remains across at least the eastern half of the forecast area throughout the day on Monday moderating expectations for a temperature recovery. Temperature trends will be critical later on Tuesday into Wednesday as a shortwave drops into the Upper Midwest and low level warm air advection leads to the potential for light rain/snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF period. Winds will remain northerly and light, and skies will be mostly overcast across the area. A slight chance of flurries will continue into Thursday afternoon, but no meaningful impacts are expected at the terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.