textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, dry weather continues through the weekend. Temperatures and wind increase through Monday.

- Rain chances (60-80%) return Tuesday evening through Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

For those in central Missouri today, looking to the southeast may give you a view of a shield of cirrus from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias, which made landfall last night off the Gulf Coast. Otherwise, for the rest of the forecast area, broad mid-level ridging will continue to keep skies clear and quiet with a prominent layer of dry air under synoptic-scale subsidence. A band of enhanced southwesterly winds under amplified low-level flow to the northwest of the forecast area will provide an opportunity for afternoon gusts around 20-25 mph as the atmosphere decouples with daytime heating, especially across northwest MO/northeast KS. This general pattern of southerly/southwesterly flow and dry weather under mid-level ridging looks to remain the same through at least early next week as the remnants of Isaias are absorbed into the atmospheric flow and a closed low digs down over the western third of the CONUS, providing minimal modification to the mid-level ridge's influence over the central CONUS.

With this sustained south/southwesterly flow, temperatures will remain warmer than average through Monday, where a shift of mid- level ridging off to the east with shortwave disturbances will orient a belt of higher 850-hPa temperatures over our forecast area and bring the highest temperatures of the period. Guidance continues to indicate that we will creep close to record daily highs/lows during the early week, with EFI around .7-.75 for maximum temperatures on Monday. Another concern going into Monday will be the potential for fire weather conditions. A surface low to the northwest will bring an enhanced pressure gradient with surface high pressure over the Gulf Coast, increasing winds during the daytime Monday. These higher winds, coupled with dry antecedent conditions and warmer temperatures/lower RH values around 30-40%, increases local concerns for fire weather. Although we are not at headline criteria with the current forecast, these conditions will need to be monitored going into early next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Uncertainty still exists for portions of the forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. Although there is greater agreement on the onset for rainfall to generally be around Tuesday evening, driven by synoptic scale ascent from embedded shortwaves and a surface boundary, there is still appreciable spread in solutions regarding temperatures for this day. The greatest spread resides across northern MO, where temperature spreads reside around 10 degF in the NBM 25-75th percentile. This is attributable to the northward extent of the boundary, with additional uncertainty regarding the impacts of cloud cover/precipitation on the temperatures for this day. Spread in temperatures continues into Wednesday with the position of the boundary across central MO remaining variable. As noted in previous forecasts, the presence of marginal MUCAPE amidst strong shear during this period will keep attention on severe potential. However, with the overall low confidence in the location/timing of the surface boundary and how that will interact with other features such as shortwaves, there is not a definitive risk outlined for this period.

Greater model deviation occurs beyond Wednesday in deterministic guidance, with models such as the GFS lifting the closed low from the western half of the CONUS towards the Great Lakes while the Euro keeps it parked in place as high pressure builds in from the north. This keeps specific details regarding the synoptic-scale forecast uncertain. However, between both solutions, a general cool-down in temperatures is expected by the end of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR prevailing through the period. Seeing some sporadic gusts around terminals with daytime mixing, so have kept mentions of gusts through 0z. Otherwise, winds generally remaining south/southwesterly around 5-10 kts through the duration of the period, with minimal/no sky cover expected. Areas of NE KS/NW MO could see gusts return tomorrow afternoon by 16z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.