textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week.

- Extreme heat warning in effect through 8 PM Saturday region wide.

- Extreme heat warning in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for areas along and south of St. Joseph to Boonville.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the 594 dam high centered over the mid south into southern Appalachia between an upper trough across the Pacific Northwest and another over Ontario and Quebec, yielding yet another hot afternoon across our CWA with 2 pm temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, with heat indices in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. The synoptic scale pattern remains mostly the same through the weekend, with the center of the H5 high sliding westward over the region tomorrow and Saturday. This will keep high temperatures in the mid 90s to as high as 100 degrees max and heat indices in the upper 90s to as high as 105 for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Due to the long duration of the heat as well as overnight low temperatures remaining elevated, went ahead and upgraded the heat advisory to an extreme heat warning for the entire CWA through 8 PM Saturday.

By Sunday and into Monday, the center of the H5 high slides a bit further west toward the Plains, with mid level heights reducing slightly, especially across northern and NE Missouri where temperatures and heat indices should be a bit cooler (especially on Monday). However, temperatures in the upper 90s and max heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s should continue for areas along and south of roughly a St. Joseph to Boonville line. By Tuesday, an upper trough moving across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Plains should push the center of the H5 high and mid/upper ridge axis back over our CWA, with the H5 high strengthening back toward 595 dam. This should yield high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees, with max heat indices up to 105 degrees. Thus, the extreme heat warning has been extended through at least 8 PM Tuesday for these locations along and south of a St. Joseph to Boonville line. It is possible that the extreme heat warning may need to be extended into Wednesday, as well.

Increased forecast certainty arrives by Thursday as some guidance suggests an upper trough moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes areas and digging southward into the Ohio Valley on Thursday, potentially sending a cold front into the CWA from the north sometime Thursday afternoon/evening, which would bring slightly cooler temperatures and chances for showers/storms. Other guidance keeps this trough and front further north, with the heat dome remaining in place overhead into Thursday and perhaps even Friday. The NBM interquartile range for MaxT at MCI on Thursday is 87 degrees and 97 degrees, respectively, and 84 and 94 degrees, respectively, on Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Southerly winds around 5-10kts overnight. SSW gusts around 15-20kts are possible Friday afternoon along with some scattered low-level cumulus.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ020>022- 028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-023>025-032-033. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.