textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend not quite as hot this afternoon - Wednesday, then noticeably cooler and less humid conditions for the weekend.

- Active weather pattern sets up through the end of the workweek with multiple chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows the axis of the upper ridge roughly along or just east of the Rockies. This places the middle to lower Missouri Valley within northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, we're in a bit of a pressure col with high pressure building into the Great Lakes. This surface high will become more established overnight and allow for weak easterly to southeasterly low-level winds to develop. This sets up an area of low to mid-level convergence from north-central KS into southeastern MO and it's this area of convergence that will help lead to an area of showers and storms developing overnight into tomorrow morning. Through the overnight, isentropic ascent, aided by the low to mid- level convergence, develops adding some forcing needed for precipitation. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. The forecast area remains at that interface of the high pressure to our east and westerly mid- level flow over the Plains. This keeps an area of convergence and isentropic ascent situated across eastern KS and western MO through Thursday, leading to multiple chances for showers and storms in the area. Severe weather chances remain low through Thursday with relatively weak flow aloft limiting shear.

A stronger shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains/ Upper Midwest Thursday night - Friday. This will help push a cold front through the area and lead to the best chances for precipitation through this forecast period. The threat of severe weather continues to look low, with marginal shear and instability present. But PWAT values over 2" and strong moisture transport into the area, locally heavy rainfall looks possible.

In the wake of this system, cooler and drier air will move into the area for the weekend. Highs should top out in the low to mid 80s but after a week of dewpoints in the middle 70s to lower 80s, dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will be noticeably drier.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected (>95% chance) through the forecast. Clouds, associated with a departing/weakening MCV, will give way to partly to most sunny skies this afternoon/ evening. Mid and high level clouds should return overnight with another area of showers/ storms developing to the west of the area. Winds will be light/variable through the day and trend to the east- southeast to southeast tomorrow, remaining less than 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.