textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions continue one more day for areas roughly near and south of I-70. - A Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening for a few counties south of I-70

- Scattered showers and storms drift southward today, including the potential for a few strong to severe storms near and south of the Missouri River this afternoon and evening. The main threat will be for strong and damaging wind gusts.

- Cooler/more seasonal temperatures fully overspread the area by Thursday and continues through the weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop this afternoon for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor north of a outflow/effective boundary in the vicinity of the southern CWA border. South of these showers in a area of differential heating, additional storms are forecast to develop late this afternoon into the evening. A few of these storms will have the potential to be strong to severe developing in an area of 2000+J/Kg of MUCAPE with damaging downburst winds being the main threat. Tonight, the synoptic front currently sinking south through Iowa will move into the local area. As it does, an upper level shortwave will move through the region kicking off another round of storms. While these storm are not anticipated to be severe, PWATs around 2 inches will make theses storms very efficient making localized flooding possible. Storms are expected to slowly sink southward through the overnight exiting the area tomorrow morning as the cold front sinks south of the area. Behind the cold front tomorrow surface high pressure will build into the area. This will provide much more comfortable and dry conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Friday, the surface ridge will slide east of the area with modest WAA developing in its wake. This will push highs back up into the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The next chance for storms arrives this weekend, likely late Friday night and again Saturday night into Sunday. We are especially keeping an eye on the rain Saturday and the potential for flooding. The GFS is showing increasing PWATs throughout the day Saturday with values around 1.5-1.8 inches. The GFS is also showing that this will be a slow moving system with the strong potential for backbuilding and training cells along the front which would result in locally higher rainfall amounts. The risk of flooding is going to depend on how much rain we see today and tomorrow but if we do see rain, the potential for flash flooding will increase on Saturday. As such, the WPC has issued a slight ERO for the western 2/3 of our CWA on Saturday. There is the potential for more storms Sunday night into Monday as models are depicting a surface low developing over the Northern Plains but right now the heaviest rain should remain to our north.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

MVFR conditions dominate the TAF period, though IFR will be possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms that are expected to pick up in coverage around/after 8z. Coverage of storms looks greatest for the metro terminals, although a shower or thunderstorm is possible at STJ after 10z. Rain will move east of all terminals by 13-15z and VFR conditions will return by the end of the period. Winds will remain light and variable outside of any thunderstorms.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.