textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Potent storm system will affect the region today.

- High winds are likely this morning through tonight with wind gusts up to 50-55 mph. Some areas may see wind gusts near or exceeding 58 mph.

- Wintry precipitation likely as cold air surges into the area behind a passing cold front this afternoon into tonight, with the potential for snow squalls leading to brief periods of significantly reduced visibility.

- Bitterly cold wind chill values expected late tonight into Monday morning with values below zero for most of the region.

- Warmer conditions build into the region for mid to late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Multi hazard weather event still on target to impact region on Sunday. A potent mid/upper trough is projected to deepen as it enters the Plains by early Sunday morning, with an associated 990 mb surface low centered over far SW Iowa/NW Missouri by around 6 AM Sunday morning and a trailing cold front extending to the south southwest through NW Missouri into far eastern Kansas. This surface low and front will move west to east through the region on Sunday. Most recent HRRR runs show the front making it through the KC metro by around 10 AM Sunday and completely through the CWA by around 1 PM Sunday. Most of what was written in the previous discussion is still very much valid, but with additional high resolution model runs, certain details have come into better focus. The potential hazards will be discussed individually below.

Strong to Severe Storms:

The threat for strong to severe storms was already low, but has only continued to decrease. 00z SPC HREF ensemble mean shows only a relatively narrow corridor of 100 to 500 J/kg of ML CAPE with only marginally higher amounts of MU CAPE out ahead of the approaching front. Most recent CAM runs do not initiate robust convection across the CWA, holding off on that until the front exits our region to the east. That said, even with only very modest instability, strong deep layer shear could still support a relatively well organized updraft, with the best chance for this residing from roughly Moberly to Sedalia. This just seems increasingly unlikely at this time.

High Winds Expected Behind the Front Sunday Morning - Monday AM:

The most confident aspect of this forecast continues to be the winds. It is going to be windy across the entire area. The main concern is just how far do the strongest winds make it southward into Missouri and eastern Kansas. Confidence is highest in areas from Leavenworth County, KS to Adair County, MO will see wind gusts pushing 60 mph during the afternoon and evening hours. A High Wind Warning is in effect for these counties. South of this, high end advisory level winds will be realized with gusts pushing 50-55 mph. It's possible a further expansion southward of the High Wind Warning will be needed, given steep lapse rates through 1.5 km and winds in that layer near 50 kts. But the tighter pressure gradient will be across northern MO with slightly less steep lapse rates but stronger winds through that layer. Winds will increase behind the strong cold front that will move through the area from mid Sunday morning through early Sunday afternoon. There may be brief lag before the strongest winds move in though, but once they do, Wind Warning level winds will linger into the overnight hours. Winds begin to diminish early Monday morning with winds falling below advisory criteria late Monday morning or early Monday afternoon.

Wintry Precipitation Behind the Front as Cold Air Surges South:

This aspect is potentially the hardest to message. High resolution models have trended less snowy over the past 12 hours, with accumulations decreasing, but there will likely be periods of snow coincident with the strongest winds. With the strong upper-level PV anomaly moving overhead, could see burst of snow with brief significant reductions in visibility during each burst. Of note, the NAM, GFS and even the RAP show near or slightly higher snow squall parameters than the levels forecast from the mid January snow squall event. Additionally, with fracturing of snow crystals, snow ratios will be lower, cutting into snow amounts. So overall, snow amounts will be less than half an inch for most locations. For northeastern MO, amounts may reach 1 to 1.5". It's important to note that, while overall snow amounts will not be impressive, the snow coming in burst may cause problems on area roadways. It is unlikely that any location within our CWA will reach blizzard criteria (quarter mile or less visibility for 3 hours or more), but far northern Missouri near the Iowa border would have the best chance.

Bitterly Cold Temperatures Monday Morning:

With strong cold advection behind the front, temperatures will plummet into the single digits and teens by early Monday morning. Winds will continue to remain elevated as the storm system exits the region and this combination will lead to wind chill values ranging from as cold as 15 degrees below zero near the Iowa border to slightly below zero across southern portions of the CWA. Have decided to hold of on a cold weather advisory for our far northern counties for now (criteria is wind chills at or below negative 15 degrees).

By Monday afternoon, a closed ~515 dam H5 low is progged to be centered over Lake Michigan, with a very highly amplified long wave trough over the east central CONUS. Our CWA should be located on the back side of this trough, with gusty NW winds and ample CAA continuing. High temperatures should remain at or below freezing for Monday, ranging from the mid 20s across NE Missouri to the lower 30s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Mid/upper ridging begins to impinge on the area from the west on Tuesday, warming temps into the 40s for Tuesday afternoon for most locations. A clipper system translating across the Upper Midwest on Tuesday night could bring some light snow across far NE Missouri, but better chances for this should remain north of the Iowa border. Upper ridging builds in further on Wednesday, warming temps into the upper 60s to mid 70s. By Thursday, models suggest a 590+ dam H5 high developing across the Desert Southwest into NW Mexico, with attendant ridging in place across the western half of the CONUS. This will send mid level heights even higher on Thursday, allowing for temperatures to warm mid 70s to potentially even the lower 80s toward the MO/KS border. Dry conditions are favored for Monday through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strong low level jet across the area tonight leading to low level wind shear. Surface winds are expected to become increasingly gusty as surface inversion weakens. Cold front is expected to sweep through the region between 13-18Z. Behind the front, brisk northwest winds are expected to develop. Could see rain/snow closer to the low center across northern Missouri, but farther south precipitation may hold off till the atmosphere cools and the cloud layer becomes coincident with the dendritic layer. Strong northwest winds linger beyond the end of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011-012-020-028. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011- 012-020-028. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for MOZ025- 029>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. High Wind Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for MOZ003>008-013>017-021>024. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ003>008- 013>017-021>024. KS...High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for KSZ057- 060-104-105.