textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated flurries and sprinkles this morning.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures today, trending much warmer for the weekend and especially next, with highs in the 60s becoming more likely.

- Rain chances (15-30%) return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

For this morning and this afternoon, the region will remain under the influence of cyclonic flow aloft as broad upper troughing moves over the Plains and Midwest. The area looks to remain under a low stratus deck. This deck is fairly shallow but varies and occasionally has some ice introduction at the top of the layer is it extends into the lower end of the DGZ. Recently had a report of flurries (around 715Z) and switching the radar to VCP34 shows some very light returns moving southward through the KC area. The shallow nature to the clouds and returns, prevents seeing anything further. It seems quite possible that we could see isolated flurries continue early this morning. With occasional loss of cloud ice, can't rule out some isolated freezing drizzle as well. All of this activity will have little impact on the area given the shallow cloud depth, marginal ascent, limited moisture, and little or no accumulation. For this afternoon, another area of flurries and/or sprinkles may affect the area. Like the earlier activity, little or no impact is expected.

With the cloud cover today, temperatures look a bit cooler than yesterday, with highs in the middle to upper 30s expected. A large upper ridge will expand eastward for the later half of the week. This will help temperatures climb into the low to mid 50s over eastern KS and western MO, aided by a westerly winds and strong mid-level warm advection. A similar scenario plays out Friday with strong warm advection aloft and westerly surface flow, at least earlier in the day. A cold front moves through the area later in the day, with cold advection prevailing Friday night and part of Saturday. That will knock temperatures down 5-10 degrees. Temperatures warm up again for next week as the upper ridge strengthens into the middle of the country. Southerly flow will help advect deeper moisture into the area Monday into Tuesday. Early Tuesday a weak shortwave will move out of the Rockies, with the sub-tropical upper jet, and bring the area a chance for rain. Probabilities are rather low still, between 15-30%, as there is little agreement amongst the ensemble members. Ensemble guidance continues with low precipitation chances through late next week, beyond the time frame of this forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

MVFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. BKN to OVC skies are expected to persist through much of the period. A few peaks of VFR CIGs are anticipated, but MVFR conditions should prevail. CIGs show potential to lower further after sunset Wednesday depending on saturation of the lower atmosphere. If low layers saturate faster, lowered CIGs may move in sooner than forecast and vice versa. Winds remain northwesterly generally light through the overnight accelerating slightly through the daytime hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.