textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend and into next week. - Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8 PM Saturday area wide

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for areas along and south of a line from St. Joseph MO to Boonville MO

- Very limited chances for any measurable precipitation through the weekend and into next week for much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

There are only so many different ways you can talk about the current and prolonged heat across the area. So, keeping the take home point simple ... the heat continues for at least another few days for a good portion of the area.

Synoptically speaking, not much change from cycle to cycle among the deterministic or ensemble guidance. Pattern evolution over the next couple/few days remains well signaled among the flagship deterministic models and their accompanying ensembles. This takes the existing Omega-block look to the pattern and really just squats it over the CONUS into early next week. The more subtle evolution will see the central ridge axis drift/retrograde westward and amplify as the eastern cutoff low churns down into/around New England and the PNW cutoff struggles to make any headway. Aside from the continued heat, this too continues to keep any appreciable precipitation chances primarily north of the area through the weekend. Expect conditions through the weekend tending to be repeats of the last couple/few days with highs ranging from the mid 90s to around 100 and heat index values a few degrees higher up to around 105. All of this is bolstered by very tight ensemble temperature spreads seen across various visualization tools. No changes to the first portion of the Extreme Heat Warning given the above.

By Sunday afternoon, there remains signaled some relief for N/NE portions of the area in response to weak mid-level height falls (ridge axis drifts ever so slightly further west) and a backdoor cold front as a large surface high drops into the Great Lakes region. This pushes highs in those areas down into the low to mid 90s. Unfortunately, relief quickly peters out and leaves areas S and W of a line from around Maryville MO to Boonville MO left baking in heat. Ensemble guidance remains quite confident in that heat with NBM probabilities >70-90 percent for highs of 95 deg F or greater for locations like St. Joseph, Kansas City and probabilities of 60 percent or greater as far east of Brookfield, Moberly, and Columbia. With a similar story playing out Monday, this helps allow N/NE areas of the Extreme Heat Warning to expire Saturday.

Monday/Tuesday, the mid-upper level pattern becomes more progressive, with the western CONUS cutoff low flattening the ridge as it moves across the Northern and Canadian Plains. Before it is able to possibly bring about appreciable temperature relief, later in the week, Tuesday may be the hottest day of the heat wave as it pushes 850mb thermal ridge axis over the area. A handful of 100s may be possible. This too results in these areas remaining in an Extreme Heat Warning through Tuesday evening. Ensemble temperature spreads increase substantially mid-late week in response to uncertainty in just how far south cold front is able to make it.

Throughout this time period, appreciable precipitation will be abundantly hard to come by. The best opportunities for any precipitation will tend to be over northern and eastern areas as shortwaves/disturbances traverse the ridge.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across the TAF sites. Winds to remain out of the S to SW throughout, including sustained 10 to 15 kts and occasional gusts approaching 20 kts from mid-morning into the afternoon. Gusts ease into the evening and overall winds ease back to around 5 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ020>022- 028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-023>025-032-033. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.