textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- River flooding continues across the forecast area.

- Showers/storms with locally heavy rainfall gradually building in tonight, persisting through tomorrow morning/afternoon. Severe storms not expected.

- Continued precipitation chances through weekend, with temperatures gradually warming back up. Severe chances remain low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

During the afternoon, a narrow band of light rain showers has developed over central MO/eastern KS, which has gradually progressed northeastward through the day. However, as has been the trend for most of the day today, light reflectivity returns on radar have failed to reach the surface despite persistent isentropic ascent. The persistence of a near-surface dry layer has kept most of the forecast area dry, with the exception of some light sprinkles from elevated showers. However, going into the evening and overnight, showers/storms are expected to gradually build northward from southern MO along synoptic lift from a shortwave trough and further erosion of the near-surface dry layer from these earlier showers. Forecast PWAT values remain in the range of 1-1.5", so expecting some pockets of locally heavier rainfall as showers progress further north. There is the possibility of some rumbles of thunder with meager MUCAPE, but marginal lapse rates and lower effective shear decreases any confidence in organized, severe convection through this evening and overnight.

Showers/storms are expected to persist through Friday morning with continued moisture advection from south/southwesterly flow in the low/mid-levels, but are gradually expected to clear as flow shifts more easterly and cuts off continued moisture advection. An upper level trough currently situated over the northern Plains will gradually lift northeast, with an associated surface low developing and traversing alongside it. This surface low will push a weak cold front across the central Plains, and reinvigorate chances for precipitation going into Friday evening. The greatest probabilities for showers/storms remains immediately west, with better lift along the cold front and a marginal CAPE/shear environment. However, the remnants of these storms could still impact eastern KS/western MO, although the chances are relatively low (20-40%) as the environment becomes progressively detrimental to storm sustenance (drier vertical profile, low effective shear).

Saturday, another disturbance in the upper-level flow will prompt continued opportunities for showers/storms this weekend. Environmental instability and lapse rates appear better this day with greater moisture returns in the low levels, and, coupled with synoptic-scale ascent from the shortwave, will contribute to increased precipitation chances (20-40%), generally south of the US-36 corridor. However, with continued marginal shear profiles, the concern for organized storms is lower.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 350 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

After this period, upper-level ridging will gradually build over the area, leaving Sunday/Monday relatively quiet as activity shifts off towards the southeast. By Tuesday, a series of upper level disturbances looks to traverse the subtropical high over the southeastern US, bringing continuing chances of precipitation through the remainder of the forecast period. By later next week, the overall synoptic pattern begins to deviate in deterministic guidance, so confidence in ongoing precipitation by late week remains low at this time. Temperatures are expected to continue rising through the weekend, with forecast highs for next week in the low-to-mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

CIGs will briefly lift to VFR at the start of the TAF period before MVFR and IFR CIGs prevail through the morning and into the afternoon. Light rain is possible through the morning and early afternoon, which may result in reduced visibilities. IFR CIGs are likely at KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD. KSTJ may also reach IFR CIGs, but confidence is not as high. Clouds should begin to scatter out tomorrow afternoon, allowing for a return to VFR conditions.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.