textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (10-15%) for drizzle tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Continued chances (50-75%) for below freezing temperatures overnight Friday into Saturday morning, generally east of US-63.

- Warmer, dry forecast through the weekend into the early half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

At the synoptic scale, our weather pattern looks to remain relatively benign. A cold front trailing a surface low over the Great Lakes has continued pushing southward, bringing cooler temperatures in the 50s and low, dense cloud cover for northern MO/northeastern KS. The positively tilted mid-level trough over the Great Lakes has continued to progress eastward, with mid-level ridging building in behind the retreating trough. As the axis of the trough remains slanted over central MO, continued chances for drizzle/light rain persist into tonight with weak ascent from vorticity maximums within the atmospheric flow interacting with saturation in the low 0-1 km of the atmosphere. With overnight lows in the low/mid 40s and high 30s, though, any impacts from this drizzle will remain minimal. Chances (10-15%) for drizzle overnight will subside with the progression of the trough further eastward into the morning tomorrow.

As mid-level ridging and surface high pressure settles over the region, temperatures will continue to remain cooler across the forecast area, with high temperatures in the low 50s/upper 40s during the daytime tomorrow. Residual low cloud cover could serve to keep temperatures cooler than forecast during the daytime, with further reinforcement of cold air from north/northwesterly winds through the vertical profile prompting greater CAA. The persistence of this cloud cover tomorrow evening into Saturday morning could dictate how low temperatures are able to fall, which has some impact on the potential for frost/freeze. As of now, guidance still favors temperatures falling at/below frost criteria areawide, with more focused chances for below freezing temperatures generally east of US- 63 (50-70%). However, with greater cloud cover, efficient radiational cooling will be inhibited, which would keep overnight lows higher than forecast. Otherwise, with cooler temperatures and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning, conditions remain favorable for the development of frost/freeze across the forecast area.

The continued progression of the trough towards the East Coast, alongside another trough over the West Coast digging towards western TX, the pattern looks to deamplify over the weekend. Surface high pressure sliding off towards the east will shift winds out of the south/southwest in the low levels, and clear skies will help contribute to a warm up of temperatures back into the 60s by the start of next week, with lows warming back into the 40s. The atmospheric flow remains quasi-zonal through the early half of next week, before a mid-level ridge begins to amplify across the western half of the CONUS and a trough axis digs down from the northern Plains by Wednesday. Aside from this shift in the synoptic pattern, the remainder of the forecast looks to remain warm and dry.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Ceilings continue to be the main detriment to the TAFs across all the sites. Ceilings hover around the MVFR/IFR line across the sites, and likely continue to do so or drift just into IFR territory through the overnight. Additionally, some very light drizzle has begun to be reported at a few sites, so have introduced those into the TAFs, but with P6SM continuing given the circumstances of very light drizzle. Ceilings slowly improve during the day, but am skeptical in how quickly conditions return to VFR. Have opted to remain a bit more pessimistic than NBM and some of the global deterministic guidance, and leaning more toward the HRRR/RAP/RRFS solutions.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.