textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple Rounds of Rain Showers & Storms Through Friday

- Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible Tonight

- Flooding Expected, Especially Northwest Missouri

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Surface cyclone centered over the Panhandle Region continues to deepen with deep troughing over the Four Corner Regions sending plenty of dCVA into the southern Plains. From the Central Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley, low-level flow has been southerly transporting plenty of moisture, pushing a warm front into northern Missouri. This warm front in northern Missouri has been the focus for persistent rain shower activity for much today. So far, it has mostly been stratiform forced primarily with isentropic upglide. The surface cyclone will continue to push eastward through the evening, with surface pressure falls expanding into eastern Kansas and the far reaches of the northwest Missouri. Expansive cloud cover has limited insolation today, but CAPE is arriving via strong theta- e advection, especially with the extra moisture being pumped in from tropical activity. Overall lapse rates are not overly impressive, but without the usual EML in place, there is not a notable cap in place. As convergence increases, we are expecting to see more shower and storm development over central and eastern Kansas through later this evening, eventually moving into northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. Deeper updrafts will be achievable in this airmass given the warm cloud depths and ample moisture through most of column. Low-level jet development along with increasing mid-level flow will provide more wind shear later this evening, allowing storm activity to organize. The main question for our western and northwestern zones is how long can activity remained organized. A few strong to severe storms will be possible, capable of damaging winds and maybe some low-end severe hail (around quarter size in diameter). With very low LCLs and increasing low-level hodograph curvature, storms may be capable of producing circulations that could produce a tornado. Overall, the better environment for this threat remains over Central Kansas closer to the center of the low pressure system. Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri are showing more cross-wise low-level vorticity, which would make it more difficult for stronger storms to produce a tornado. The window for development will likely be narrow, and usually in these environments if one is produced, will be brief and weak. The damaging wind gusts are the more prominent threat with activity this evening. Continued rainfall will also be a problem for flooding, both areal flash flooding and increasing river/stream levels through the end of the work week. Areas in northwest and northern Missouri have seen a couple inches of rainfall already, and northwest Missouri especially is in line to see another 1-2 to inches of rainfall. Some of the 12z guidance, including the HRRR, brings heavier rainfall southward toward the Interstate 70 corridor, including the KC Metro. However, other model trends have been lighter on precipitation. For now, have kept the flood watch as is, but if we continue see pockets of 3-4 inches possible southward, a southward expansion may be come necessary. While northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas can see flooding issues overnight, areas southward toward the Interstate 70 corridor likely will not see flooding issues until Thursday afternoon.

Thursday afternoon, the cyclone will start to move east-southeast, with the stationary front in northern Missouri becoming a cold front. This is being caused by surface high pressure moving southeastward out of the northern Plains. Continued lift will provide rain shower activity for most of the day Thursday and into the evening hours, with some potential for non-severe thunderstorms, though true instability will be limited. This is when our central Missouri and our southern zones in the forecast area will start to see more efficient rainfall rates. By Friday afternoon, the front should clear the forecast area with high pressure building in, and most of the shower activity will exit.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 240 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

For this weekend, we are expecting drier conditions, seasonable temperatures, and overall, fall-like weather. This will be contributed by zonal flow progressing across the northern CONUS, surface high pressure systems to our north, and the development of a 500mb high pressure system in the desert southwest. For Saturday, a surface high pressure will be over the Great Lakes, and will continue to progress eastward. We will still see its influence with temperatures in the upper-60s to low-70s, cooler overnight temperatures, and a southeasterly wind. On Sunday, a 500mb high pressure center will further develop and contribute to height rises, resulting in a ridge to build over the western part of the CONUS. Our area will be downstream of the ridge axis, and with the addition of another surface high pressure system over southern Canada, winds will shift to a northerly direction, and help continue seasonable temperatures. Drier conditions, and temperatures typical for this time of year are expected to stick around into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A messy TAF period ahead with numerous opportunities for impactful conditions. Initially, conditions will be on the quiet side with VFR ceilings and no precipitation. This begins to come to an end late in the overnight as ceilings come down and -SHRA and -TSRA chances ramp up across the sites. This begins soonest at KSTJ around/after 09z then spreads to the KC Metro sites around/after 11z. Expectation for a relatively narrow and migrating band of -TSRA, so have opted for TEMPO usage. Frontal passage by the afternoon will see winds go northerly and gusty in excess of 20 to 25 kts, while ceilings and precipitation chances gradually wind down.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020. KS...Flood Watch through late Thursday night for KSZ025-102.