textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Saturday morning for counties in north-central and northeastern Missouri. Training storm clusters will be capable of producing heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding.

- Hazardous heat continues today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect until 9 PM for areas generally along and south of the Missouri River. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM for areas in the vicinity of the US-36 corridor.

- Additional thunderstorm chances Saturday night into Sunday, generally between the IA/MO state line and the Missouri River.

- Some relief from the heat is expected heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Convection is ongoing north of the Missouri River following the intensification of a now 30-40 kt low-level jet against the stationary boundary draped across portions of northern MO and eastern KS. Recent mesoanalysis depicts 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE across the CWA with a gradient of PWATs between 2.0 and 2.5 from the I-70 corridor up through the IA/MO border, respectively. Storms clusters are already showing the tendency to congeal and train in an environment lacking adequate deep-layer shear. Additional development is expected as the low-level jet continues to provide lift in the frontal zone overnight, increasing potential for training roughly along and north of US-36. A severe threat does still exist, albeit marginal, with isolated strong wind gusts possible, but flash flooding remains the main concern as we progress through the overnight with continued training and weak upper-level flow. Backbuilding will cease as the low-level jet decays later this morning. Weakening showers and storms may linger briefly after sunrise before coming to an end mid/late morning.

The stationary boundary will hold over northern MO/southern IA for much of today as the ridge begins to slide east. Hot and humid conditions are once again expected with heat products in effect until late this evening for areas generally in the vicinity of US-36 and south. Any lingering cloud cover could limit temperatures today, especially across northern MO. Max heat indices could sit around 105F south of the river with heat indices around 100F further north, but this forecast will be sensitive to the persistence of cloud cover.

The stationary front is expected to sag south late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, bringing storm chances to the region once again. Northern MO once again appears to have the greatest likelihood of storms (50-70% chance), though there is a 20-30% chance into far east-central KS and central MO. There are questions regarding the cold front behind the stationary front that is set to move through the area sometime between early Sunday morning and late Sunday night. Some guidance projects the passage to occur by sunrise, leading to cooler conditions (high temperatures in the low/mid 80s) areawide, while others suggest a slower progression that leads to the temperature gradient dividing the CWA (low 80s in the north versus low 90s in the south). Needless to say, there is considerable timing uncertainty having significant implications for Sunday's temperature forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the day with southerly winds 5-10 kts. Chances for showers and storms increase after 00Z and continue into the overnight. Brie reductions in flight conditions are possible with this activity. Additionally, there is a low probability (<20%) for MVFR ceilings and visibility late in the forecast. Given it's in the last 6 hours of the forecast and low chance of occurring, have left mention out for now.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ003>008- 013>017-022>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025- 057-060-103>105.