textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread showers (50-80% chance) this evening and into Saturday. A few lightning strikes are possible this evening (10-20% chance).

- Isolated showers possible (15-30% chance) Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely (60-95%) Monday and Tuesday. Some storms on Monday could be strong/severe, but uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Comparison of 00Z and 12Z upper-air observations detail a deepening upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest and continued broad ridging/near-zonal flow more centrally located over the CONUS. Mid/low-level flow has become increasingly southerly/southwesterly overnight and into the morning, advecting moisture into the region. A mid-level shortwave mapped over southwest Texas is set to propel northeastward into the the Central Plains later today. A surface boundary that moved through the area yesterday now rests over central Missouri but is expected to lift north today as a warm front, bringing with it renewed rain and storm chances. Over the course of the afternoon, the expectation is for elevated instability to rise to around 500 J/kg. Based on forecast soundings, however, this layer of instability is rather shallow. There may be a few cells capable of producing some lightning, but current thinking is that most will remain as light rain showers. Rain chances will increase to about 40-50% south of the Missouri River by 6 PM or so before expanding further north overnight. Confidence in rain is greatest primarily in areas west of I-35 where hourly PoPs approach 70-80% just around midnight. WPC has maintained a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for portions of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas. PWATs range from about 1.25" across northern Missouri to 1.5" further south as well as closer to the MO/KS border and Kansas City metro. 15-mile neighborhood probabilities for 24-hour rainfall accumulations of at least 0.25" by 1 PM Saturday are lowest (~15%) in central Missouri and increase further to the northwest. The highest probability corridor sits roughly between I-29 and I-35 in Missouri (including the Kansas City metro) where neighborhood probabilities begin to exceed 80% for at least 0.25" of rain. Model spread is also higher in these areas (generally a 0.25-0.5" difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles). All that said...generally expecting around 0.25" to 0.5" of rain west of I-35 through early Saturday afternoon. Elsewhere, accumulations will likely fall below 0.25". Locally higher amounts will be possible, but these values should provide a broad overview of expectations.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue Saturday afternoon and potentially into the evening. The mid-level trough is anticipated to move out of the area by early/mid afternoon, and much of the support for continued precipitation will fade along with it as low-level flow becomes more easterly, drying out the 1000-800mb layer. As such, guidance reduces rain coverage during the late afternoon and early evening hours for most portions of our area. Some uncertainty is introduced by a weaker shortwave that approaches southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri as it could help spawn some showers in the evening. Given the low-level dry layer, though, these would be isolated and brief in nature. Nonetheless, retained the 15-30% chance for an isolated shower in the evening/overnight period. Sunday looks dry with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s across the forecast area.

Rain chances return late Sunday night and into Monday as an upper- trough encourages surface cyclogenesis off of the Rockies. This system will invite a few more days of active weather to the region with widespread showers and thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday. Strong (50-60 kt) south/southwesterly low-level flow is anticipated to enshroud the Plains late Sunday night, continuing through Tuesday morning. This will advect substantial moisture into the region with PWATs soaring to around 1.75". This is comfortably above the 90th percentile of KTOP's sounding climatology. Moreover, the daily maximum PWATs from their climatology during the first week of November is around 1.5". Forecast PWATs are also nearing or exceeding the maximum of NAEFS climatology. While the shear space seems impressive, instability is certainly lesser. It's possible that a high-CAPE, low-shear environment awaits us on Monday ahead of a cold front. This will be the key timeframe to monitor over the coming forecast cycles.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period. Showers are expected to move in from the south later this evening, potentially preceded by isolated thunderstorms. Have included PROB30 for -TSRA for a few hours earlier in the evening at all four TAF sites. -RA/-SHRA expected to continue overnight, eventually clearing in the morning. Light easterly/southeasterly surface winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.