textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather today as a cold front slides through the area. All severe hazards remain possible.

* Additional severe weather looks possible for Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Initiation and the passage of the frontal boundary are starting a bit earlier today across KS and MO. The frontal boundary is currently starting to move into northwestern MO early this afternoon and should continue southeast down the state through the afternoon exiting later this evening. For the EAX forecast area the front should be clear of the CWA between roughly 6-9 PM. For the current environment conditions look to be uncapped when looking at the ACARs soundings coming out of MCI. These same soundings suggest roughly 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Bulk effective shear across the region looks to range from roughly 30-50 kts. Higher shear is generally settled across northern MO with shear trailing off as you go south. Which tracks with the most recent ACARs sounding near the metro with 0-3km wind shear of 30 kts (matches up well with the VWP too). There is a similar trend with SRH across the region with the highest values (~150-200) across northeastern MO and decreasing as you travel southwest from there. For now its a bit of a waiting game for storm initiation to begin with any low level convergence to get things going.

On satellite there is an agitated Cumulus field out ahead of the front. Anything that develops out ahead of the front will likely be super cellular with all hazards possible. As initiation begins along the frontal boundary, storms will unzip down the boundary eventually giving the area an nice linear storm mode. Given the CAPE, shear and SRH, all hazards will be possible as well, but more of a QLSC problem at that point (quick spin ups). This window for any QLSC tornadoes should be very narrow in time as soundings and hodographs suggest more crosswise vorticity overtime vs streamwise. As the event goes on this afternoon into the early evening, wind should become the dominant threat with DCAPE generally from 1200-1500 J/kg.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across southern NE as the main shortwave trough approaches from the High Plains. Ample moisture advection northward on a 55 kt LLJ will fostercontinue to developadditional storm development for the next few hours across southern and eastern NE. As time progresses, supercells will congeal into an MCS while approaching Iowa and far northern MO. Large hail is the primary threat now, but as the transition to an MCS occurs, damaging winds will also become a concern. The highest threat is expected to remain mostly across central and southern IA, but the southern end of the line appears likely to graze far northern MO. Some supercellular characteristics may prevail in this section of the line with the large hail threat continuing into the mid morning hours. Depending how far south the line reaches will determine whether the ongoing flooding across northern MO is exacerbated. The Flood Watch was cancelled with the thought the hardest hit areas will be missed from this morning's activity. The MCS will continue tracking east to northern IL by early afternoon.

The low pressure center will be located over central/eastern IA midday with a cold front extending southwest into far northwest MO and eastern KS. Additional thunderstorm development will take place along the front mid afternoon, likely stretching from west central to northeast MO. Northwestern MO and northeast KS may be skipped by the second round. The extensive squall line will be capable of all severe weather hazards. Some slightly backed low level flow toward northeast MO may aid with a better tornado threat there, otherwise large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards through late afternoon.

The front will clear to the southeast by early evening and the thunderstorm risk will end. Much cooler and drier air arrives with the frontal passage and lows tonight will drop into the 50s. Clear skies and pleasant conditions for Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure will slide east late Friday and return flow will begin Friday night. Low pressure over the central Plains and steepening mid level lapse rates will facilitate the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms as another cold front sinks south. Supercells will be possible initially Saturday before congealing into clusters or complexes and continuing into Saturday night. All severe weather hazards are possible, including flash flooding.

The cold front will pass through and exit to the south by Sunday. Cooler and drier air will usher in with a large trough across the northern and eastern U.S. Weak shortwaves could bring occasional low chances for showers and thunderstorms, but nothing looks too significant at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gusty conditions expected for TAF sites 00z-02z. Winds gust around 25-30 knots as the cold front moves through 18z-20 across the KMCI, KMKC and KIXD and as it moves through the winds will shift from SW to NW. Gusts around 30 to intermittent 36 knots are expected. SHRA and -TSRA are expected to develop as the front moves through the KC metro area and KMCI, KMKC and KIXD has tempo group with -TSRA from 18z-21z and will quickly clear and improve after the line of thunderstorms move SE. The line of thunderstorms will move east of the KC Metro area and could see strong to sever storms develop across the other portions of CWA, but for the TAF sites then will clear and winds will dissipate overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.