textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few sprinkles are possible (10-15%) this afternoon through tomorrow morning, but meaningful precipitation is not expected.

- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.

- Predominantly dry conditions through the weekend for most locations. Only low precipitation chances (15-30%) for extreme NW MO on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Mid-level ridging is expected across the Central Plains through much of the forecast period. Current 500-hPa analysis shows a ridge axis centered over the area, with a weak shortwave moving through the flow to the west. Energy from this shortwave has led to light showers developing across eastern KS and western MO, however, with a lot of dry air present in the lowest 10k ft, only a few sprinkles have been able to make it to the ground. Cloud cover, tied to the shortwave, is present over the southwestern portion of the CWA and is expected to spread across the remainder of the area through the afternoon and evening, allowing temperatures to peak around 70F today. The ridge axis shifts west this evening and another shortwave is progged to move over the peak of the ridge and into the Central Plains. This will once again allow showers to form across central and eastern KS. The shortwave is expected to be weakening as it approaches western MO, and with dry air still in place in the lowest 10k ft, a few sprinkles remain possible, but it is unlikely that any meaningful precipitation will be seen across the CWA.

Ridging will remain centered just to the west of the local area on Wednesday, as the shortwave moves to the east. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Lakes will result in light southerly winds. Weak WAA and mid-level height rises will yield high temperatures in the mid-70s. By Thursday, the ridge axis will once again be centered overhead, with the height rises and WAA bringing temperatures into the upper 70s through Saturday. On Saturday, a trough will eject across the northern Rockies resulting in lee cyclogenesis in MT. This system will lift northeast into Canada and its cold front will advance towards the Central Plains, but is not expected to make it this far south before stalling out. Although it will remain stalled north of the area, forcing along the front may be enough to see a few showers on Sunday across far northwestern MO, although the chances remain low (15-30%) given the presence of dry low- level air. Another trough ejection on Sunday should be enough force the cold front across the area on Monday, bringing high temperatures back towards seasonal normals in the low-to-mid 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions through the period with a light southerly wind. Looking at increasing coverage of clouds at 10-15K feet, and could see a few sprinkles but no visibility restriction is expected.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.