textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated non-severe storm is possible this evening across far eastern KS into far western Missouri.

- Increasing severe weather threat later in the day on Sunday into Sunday night. All modes of severe weather are possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind a strong cold front moving through the region mid-day Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Cold front associated with an occluded low pressure center across central Canada will continue to slowly push east this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a weakly unstable atmosphere exists with increasing low level moisture. There is a fair amount of cloud cover across central and eastern KS, but still could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the cold front with 750-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and weak short wave building east. CAMs suggest a few of these storms may approach eastern Kansas into far western Missouri this evening, though the trend has been to shift timing a bit later in the evening. Severe weather is not expected with this activity with relatively weak instability.

Sunday, a developing low pressure system in the central Rockies is expected to lead to increasing southerly winds. As the warm front noses into the region, increasing shear and instability is expected. 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 knots west of the warm front and surface based CAPE increases to 1500-2500 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest there is a bit of a cap near 700 mb, but 25-35 knot low level jet developing Sunday evening across the plains may weaken the cap. Models also suggest a series of short waves moving across KS that could assist in the development of convection, but are largely focused after 06Z Monday. The left exit region of the upper level jet also noses into the region after 06-09Z Monday, potentially assisting in lift developing across the region. This all said. That there are multiple triggers but no clear indication on if/what will get convection going.

Strong cold front is expected to work through the region mid-day Monday, bringing an end to the potential for storms. Cooler and drier conditions are expected through much of the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Challenging forecast as moisture lower-level moisture begins to build into the area tonight and tomorrow. There are low probabilities for storms late this evening/overnight, depending on how storms in KS and NE evolve. Have maintained the PROB30 but pushed timing back a few hours. Overnight, there is an indication that MVFR ceilings will build into the area. Again, this uncertain at this point and for now is lower probability. Have added some scattered MVFR ceilings before sunrise given the uncertainty. Winds seem likely to increase by the afternoon and become gusty through the end of the forecast. Have added southeasterly winds of 15-18kts with gusts of 25-28kts. Lastly, there is a low chance for storms to affect the terminals prior to the end of this forecast. Right now, the better chances look to be after 00Z tomorrow so have kept mention out with this forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.