textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Strong to severe storms anticipated Friday, including greater confidence in the severe threat compared to recent days/events. - All hazards possible, including tornadoes but especially large hail and damaging winds

- Current timing looks to be from early/mid afternoon into evening, similar to timing to what transpired yesterday/Wednesday

* Temperatures remain seasonally warm (mainly 80s) through Friday, then much cooler Saturday. Gradual warming after Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

After the widespread strong to severe storm event yesterday/Wednesday afternoon and evening, quieter conditions have settled into the area. The parent upper level shortwave trough and attendant surface low have shifted east of the area, continuing to fire off non-severe convection toward the Mid-Mississippi and western Ohio River Valley areas. Locally, easing of surface pressure gradient and deep layer subsidence have resulted in much lighter winds (near calm in some cases) and clearing skies. For today, conditions remain quiet with mostly sunny skies and notably lighter southerly winds continuing. Unfortunately, the quiet and calm will be short lived...

The next weather maker/upper trough has moved into the PNW and will continue to dig down into the mid-Mountainous West through the day today. As it does so, rounds of Lee Cyclogenesis will be seen over the northern High Plains. Coupled with broad surface high over the SE US and increasingly SW mid-upper level flow, much of the central CONUS will see increasing deep moisture return by late Thursday/overnight and especially into early Friday. By Friday morning, deep upper trough begins to kick out/pivot into the Plains and take on a more neutral to slightly negative/mature tilt, which very typically favorable for severe weather scenarios, and a jet rounding its base and nosing into the forecast area. Broad set of synoptic guidance (deterministic and ensemble) have depicted this setup for days now, including various AI/ML/NN aided guidance further ringing the bell. As we too have begun to enter hi-res windows, guidance remains pretty well locked in with the severe threat, seen in HREF and HRRR NN among others.

Okay... so about what about the details, primary threats, timing, etc? Aforementioned general synoptic setup is yielding at least moderate, if not high, confidence in the following: substantial SB/MUCAPE values of 3000-3500 J/kg, weak or no cap by the afternoon, increasing deep layer shear >50 kts 0-6km, notable increasing low level shear of >35-40 kts 0-3km, and elongating hodographs among other things. Of note, and something that does introduce some uncertainty is frontal position and timing. This will not only be important for general threat area, but also initial storm modes and just how supportive the environment will be for higher storm potential. Effectively, it may be a bit of a race for the low-mid level flow increase ahead of the frontal passage. Currently, forecast suggests a "a just right" sort of timing with front entering NW forecast area mid-late afternoon Friday and that increased low level flow overspreading the area at that time. As a result, we may have both discrete supercells in the open warm sector (depicted very weak or nil cap) concurrent with increasing activity/initiation along the cold front. Should this prevail, all modes of severe weather are absolutely in play. Tornadic activity most likely discrete cells, but increasing 0-3km shear semi- orthogonal to the front too would keep QLCS tornadic activity in place. Damaging winds and hail would be expected to be prevalent given the CAPE-shear parameter space. Largest hail with discrete activity, but severe hail also in play within more plusey multi- cell/clusters or linear storm modes. Damaging winds may be the highest end and most prevalent threat given the expectation for a rapid uptick convection coverage. Whether discrete, multi-cell, or linear. Mean-winds and right movers will yield storm motions >45 mph, so it would not take much more to get base severe winds. Given the large CAPE/steep lapse rates and favorable shear/wind profile orientations, organized cold pools (discrete or linear) could certainly produce swaths of 70-80+ mph winds. All of this looks to transpire from early afternoon to evening, not unlike the timing seen yesterday/Wednesday. To no surprise, SPC Day 2 Outlook reflects a lot of this thinking with Sig 1 Hatching and quite elevated probabilities for Hail/Wind, at minimum the highest of our recent events. Suffice it to say, pay attention to remaining evolution of details for Friday.

As this sizable trough sweeps through the central CONUS, much quieter and cooler conditions prevail through the weekend as NW flow at the surface and aloft prevail. Highs fall back into the 50s for most Saturday, then gradually warming thereafter as mid-upper level ridging begins to work through the west and eventually central CONUS. Any notable precipitation chances then look to hold off until at least mid-week if not end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Aside from KSTJ experience some typical low-lying fog, VFR is expected to prevail across the sites today. Winds will re-settle out of the S and increase to around 10 kts in most cases through the day time. Late in the period/overnight, winds will further increase out of the S.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.