textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through this weekend.

- Predominantly dry conditions expected for most locations. Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Today, the local area will be under low-amplitude upper level ridging. A subtle shortwave will move through the area this afternoon. This feature may provide enough lift to produce a few sprinkles however, dry area below 10kft will most likely relegate precipitation (10-15%) to virga. This feature will provide mostly cloudy to cloudy skies today however, the low amplitude ridging and weak WAA will still allow highs to rise into the lower 70s. Another stronger shortwave rounding the upper ridge will move through the central Plains tonight and approach the local area. However, models suggest this feature weakens as it approaches and dry air below 10kft continues to be in place and may actually be further reinforced by a surface high pressure ridge building back westward from the Ohio and mid-Mississippi River Valleys. Consequently, precipitation chances remain 10-15% tonight over the eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Tomorrow, surface high pressure continues to build back into the area as upper level ridging become more amplified over the central CONUS in response to a upper level trough digging south along the west coast. Despite weak mixing, height rises will aid in highs rising into the low to mid 70s. Thursday will present similar conditions to Wednesday with continued height rises as upper level ridging builds over the central CONUS. This will push highs into the mid to upper 70s.

The gradual warming trend through midweek continues Friday and Saturday as the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area. This will provide continued height rises pushing highs into the mid 70s to lower 80s by Saturday. Saturday into Saturday night a upper level trough will across the Canadian Plains forcing a sagging cold front towards the area. This front is not expected to reach the area Saturday night but a few showers ahead of it may be possible across far northwestern Missouri. Sunday is expected to be dry and warm as the cold front stall north and west of the forecast area with highs remaining in the 70s. Sunday into Sunday night a upper level trough over the Four Corners region will weaken and move into the central Plains. This feature will finally drive the cold front into the area on Monday bringing the chance for showers (15-30%) however, moisture will be meager. Highs Monday will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure will build into the area behind the front on Tuesday cooling temperatures nearer to seasonal normals in the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd. Sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds are fcst to begin the TAF pd but will becmg bkn-ovc around 10kft aft 15Z-16Z. Winds will be out of the SE around 5kts to being the TAF pd but will become more southerly btn 5-10kts aft 15Z-16Z. There is a very small chc for -shra at the terminals durg the afternoon however, chances are too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.