textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions expected for the rest of this week.

- Temperatures mid-next week will be 15 to 25 degrees above average. Record highs may be approached or reached around the Christmas holiday.

- No precipitation is expected through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A mostly quiet day anticipated for today with highs ranging from the upper 30s to low 50s. In the upper levels, the trough that brought us those stout winds yesterday continues its track to the east of the area, through the Great Lakes Region. As a result, northwesterly flow aloft remains over the area. A broad, mid to upper level ridge will move in behind the trough, however, shortwaves moving through Canada will work to flatten the ridge resulting in a more zonal flow aloft heading into the evening. At the surface, a high pressure remains over the south-central U.S. with a surface low traversing through Saskatchewan, towards Manitoba. This low has produced a pressure gradient just strong enough for occasional wind gusts ranging from 20-30 mph through the afternoon/early evening. This, coupled with relative humidity values dropping into the 25-35% range has led to increased fire weather concerns for today. However, with sustained winds struggling to reach 20 mph, no fire weather products will be necessary for today. Even still, any burning should be closely monitored. Warm air advection from southerly winds will keep low temperatures from bottoming out tonight into early tomorrow morning. Early morning lows will range from just below freezing (north/northeastern MO) to upper 30s (KC Metro and areas south).

A weak surface low develops near the eastern SD/NE border, dragging a dry cold front through the area early tomorrow morning into the afternoon. With colder air lagging behind the front, it will have almost no impact on high temperatures for tomorrow. Highs for the start of the weekend will be a few degrees warmer than today, ranging from the low 40s to mid 50s. Now, as colder air pushes in behind the front Saturday evening into the overnight hours, this will allow low temperatures for Sunday morning to be 8-10 degrees colder than Saturday morning. Early morning lows for Sunday will range in the low 20s to low 30s. Temperatures rebound nicely for Sunday afternoon as broad mid to upper level ridging begins to build into the area. Highs will range in the upper 30s to low 50s.

For the start of the work-week, the mid to upper level ridge continues to build into the area which will keep us warm and dry through most of next week. The warmest temperatures of the week will come during a 2-day stretch including the day before Christmas and Christmas day. Highs seem to range from the low 60s to low 70s which happens to be 15-25 degrees above seasonal averages. A few temperature records could be threatened around Christmas with temperatures this high. As far as precip, extended guidance continues to suggest dry conditions through next week due to the influence of the mid to upper level ridge.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Dry and VFR flight conditions will prevail through the TAF period with the only noteworthy items being 1.) marginal LLWS tonight into early Saturday morning as a 50-kt southwesterly low-level jet overlays light southerly surface winds, and then 2.) a dry cold frontal passage Saturday morning veering winds toward the northwest with a few gusts nearing 20 kt.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.