textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong/Severe storms expected tonight, with primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds.

- Cooler temperatures and several additional rounds of showers/storms expected through Thursday.

- Brief lull in activity, before returning over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Through the day, dewpoint temperatures have managed to climb into the low-mid 50s across the area as clearer skies are allowing ample sunshine to increase temperatures to the high 70s/low 80s and generate instability at the surface around 1500-2000 J/kg. While greater moisture still remains further south in south/south-central OK, our ingredients for severe weather tonight are beginning to come together this afternoon. As of 18z, WPC surface analysis drapes the cold front over far northwestern MO. Through the day, the cold front will continue to push southeastward as moisture is funneled from southwesterly winds between high pressure to the southeast and a developing surface low over the OK panhandle to the west/southwest. After sunset, CAMs initiate discrete convection along the cold front around 8-10pm. With environmental effective bulk shear around 35-40 kts and steep mid-level lapse rates around 7.5-8 degC/km, storms that form would be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind during initial development. Through the night, storms will eventually congeal into a larger line of storms as the shortwave progresses eastward, with a greater wind threat as the night progresses. It is expected that these storms will decrease in severity as they fall behind the cold front through the night and into the morning tomorrow. With this nighttime activity, there is some threat of minor flooding with any storms that train over an area for a prolonged time, especially in areas with poor drainage. However, the greater concern for flooding would be with more prolonged rainfall, which is something that will need to be monitored in the next few days with continued chances for additional rainfall.

Temperatures tomorrow will remain lower in the wake of the cold front, with forecast highs only expected to rise to the high 50s under prevailing north/northeasterly winds. Continued synoptic ascent from the passing shortwave will cause showers to persist across the area through the morning and afternoon tomorrow as the surface low and low-level shortwave trough continue to progress east. The greater axis of precipitation will remain off towards the southeast with better synoptic forcing from the shortwave, but there will still be greater moisture over our area for efficient precipitation with any showers/storms, with forecast PWAT values around 1-1.5 inches along the I-70 corridor south. With continued precipitation chances as another low-level shortwave lifts across MO during the day Wednesday, alongside greater forecast PWAT, there is continued concern for river/small stream flooding, especially if precipitation falls over areas that have previously seen rainfall. Like previously mentioned, this concern will need to be monitored with subsequent forecasts.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

After this initial period of activity, amplified low-level ridging will keep conditions dry going into Thursday. Continued disturbances in overall atmospheric flow from an upper level trough situated over the Hudson Bay will bring another shortwave to the area by Friday, which will increase chances for precipitation going into the late afternoon and evening. Greater chances (10-30%) for precipitation exist further eastward along better synoptic forcing from the low-level shortwave as it ridges along the mean flow. By Saturday/Sunday, a series of shortwaves will keep probabilities for precipitation higher (30-50%) through the weekend, before upper-level ridging advances from the west and keeps the end of the forecast period dry. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 70s/low 80s through the long term.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front is moving south, and is currently between KMKC and KIXD. A line of SHRA/TSRA has developed along and just behind the wind shift and will impact both of those sites through 07Z or 08Z. There will be a break before an area of light rain/showers (VFR) spread eastward across all sites through the morning and into the afternoon. KSTJ may stay north of the rain. North northeast winds will initially gust up to 20kts and then settle down to around 10kts by 12Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.