textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Low end chances (20-40%) for showers and storms this evening into tonight. Severe weather is not expected.

- Cooler tomorrow behind a cold front, with temperatures warming once more Monday and Tuesday.

- Record high temperatures may be possible on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Current H5 analysis shows northwesterly mid/upper flow across Missouri and Kansas east of ridging across the far western CONUS and south and east of longwave troughing from Ontario all the way into Appalachia. At the surface, an east-west oriented cold front is analyzed across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and is currently moving southward toward our region. Strong heating this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front should send afternoon highs into the mid 80s for most locations. As the front moves into the CWA later this afternoon into this evening, convergence along the front and increased forcing from an approaching subtle shortwave trough across the central High Plains should help generate isolated to scattered high based showers and maybe a few thunderstorms. Severe weather is generally not anticipated, but the 12z SPC HREF does show a corridor of 500 to 1000 J/kg of MU CAPE, steep lapse rates, and around 35 knots of deep layer shear, which may be capable of producing some relatively well organized updrafts. A few isolated showers may linger into the overnight period. Colder and drier air arrives from the north behind the front late tonight into Sunday morning, with afternoon highs for Sunday forecast to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with some mid to high level cloud cover lingering into Sunday afternoon.

Surface high pressure builds in across the region by Sunday evening, yielding clearing skies and calm winds. This should allow for solid radiational cooling Sunday night into Monday morning, sending overnight lows into the mid to upper 40s. By Monday, the high amplitude eastern trough should finally push further east, with a 590 dam H5 high developing over the Desert Southwest and attendant mid/upper ridging building over much of the western half of the CONUS. This will bring warmer temperatures to the region, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with low level flow returning to southwesterly.

On Tuesday, models project a shortwave trough descending out of the Canadian Plains into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley with an accompanying surface cyclone developing over Minnesota. This will yield increased south southwesterly flow, with winds gusting up to 25 to 30 mph, and will also yield ample warm air and moisture advection, with highs forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s and dew points rising into the mid 50s (upper 50s along and south of Interstate 70). A cold front should move through the region from NW to SE sometime late Tuesday night as the system progresses to the east. There may be a window Tuesday afternoon/evening with a pairing of modest instability and decent deep layer shear to present a marginal and conditional severe threat, but for now the threat is not enough to justify a 15% severe risk from SPC.

Cooler temperatures are likely for Wednesday behind the front, but temperatures should rebound quickly into Thursday and Friday as mid/upper ridging builds in over the region, with highs forecast in the 90s by Friday (25th and 75th percentile for MaxT at MCI is 88 and 98 degrees, respectively). The current forecast high at MCI on Friday is 93 degrees, which is 2 degrees above the record (91 degrees set in 1941).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all four terminals through the end of the TAF period. This evening, elevated showers will continue to move southward. With a layer of dry air near the surface, little if any rain will be able to reach the surface. However, have chosen to include PROB30 for -RA at KMKC and KIXD where guidance suggests stronger showers may develop in the earliest few hours of the TAF period. Stronger gusts have been noted as these showers have moved through but are expected to remain infrequent enough that inclusion as a prevailing condition did not feel warranted. Otherwise, expect northerly/northeasterly winds for the remainder of the TAF period with cloud clover generally lessening and CIGs rising.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.