textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light precipitation early this morning is expected to quickly shift east this morning.

* Shortwave over eastern South Dakota is expected to dive south today, creating breezy conditions and the potential for afternoon/early evening snow showers across central MO.

* Warming trend is expected the first half of the week, with temperatures cooling mid and late week as a series of waves pass through the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A pair of phased waves are building east across the lower 48. The southern wave is expected to merge with the northern wave today, but has brought some light pre-dawn precipitation to the region. Observations have suggested atmosphere is warm enough and precipitation intensity is light enough that precipitation has largely remained rain or rain mixed with snow. This system is expected to quickly shift east, with subsidence behind the wave leading to clearing skies from west to east this morning. A cold front/pv anomaly over eastern SD as of 8Z associated with the wave to the north is expected to plunge south today, impacting the region after 21Z this afternoon. Low level lapse rates rapidly increase to around 9-9.5 degree/km in the 900-800 mb layer along the cold front. This will lead to a rapid increase in winds as momentum aloft will mix towards the surface and despite very limited moisture, could see snow showers develop east of highway 65 as a result of weak instability. These snow showers could lead to brief reductions in visibility, but have the potential to be very impactful to travel with winds gusting to near 30 knots.

Northerly-northwest flow remains in the mid levels of the atmosphere this week as periodic waves rotate around longstanding trough across the eastern US throughout the week. Wave mid-week looks to be moisture starved, and the ECMWF and Canadian solutions remain dry while the GFS has some light precipitation. With the NBM being heavily weighted towards the EC, the forecast remains dry, but much cooler conditions are expected in the wake of this wave on Wednesday trending temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

Another wave dropping into the Central US late week draws much cooler air into the region. 925 hpa temperatures fall well below zero C leading to below normal temperatures next weekend. This could be enhanced if snow falls with the wave on Thursday night, but at this time, precipitation appears to be focused across the Mississippi Valley.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 528 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Skies are quickly clearing from west to east this morning. A disturbance and associated cold front is expected to build into the region after 20Z this afternoon. Gusty winds are expected to develop, and brief snow showers may be possible east of highway 65. Any snow showers are expected to work south and east of the region after 01Z Sunday. While the gusty winds remain, they are expected to gradually decrease through the overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.