textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms expected through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

- Cooler temperatures are expected tomorrow through the weekend.

- A warming trend is forecast by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A 500-hPa trough is currently moving across the central and southern Plains with an associated surface low pressure system developing in the vicinity of the OK/TX panhandles. A stalled frontal boundary is positioned from northern IL to southern KS and is acting as this developing system's warm front. Further north, across northern IA and eastern NE, a cold front is advancing to the southeast from a low pressure system in Canada. Weak convergence combined with upper-level support from the trough has resulted in showers forming along the stalled front across northeastern KS and northwestern MO. Further northeast, flow along the boundary is much more parallel rather than convergent, hence why showers have not formed further north. Temperatures this afternoon are expected to hold in the low-70s.

As the cold front continues to push southeast, it will collide with the stalled front and both fronts will move southeast through the CWA. The southeastward movement of the front will create more convergence, allowing widespread showers to develop across the CWA. With PWATs ahead of the front being in the 2-2.25" range (100th percentile for early October), this will create a setup for efficient, heavy rainfall. With 1-2" of rain having already fallen across northern MO this morning, an additional 1-2" will likely cause flash flooding concerns. With the front moving southeast, the heaviest axis of precipitation should be along and south of the Missouri River. As such, the Flood Watch has been extended southward through the full CWA through 1 AM CDT, but with conditions already being primed for flooding, concerns still exist north of this area, particularly before the front starts moving. Weak instability (500-1000 J/kg) is present along and south of the front, which may allow a rumble of thunder or two to be possible this afternoon, but severe weather is not expected.

The cold front, and associated showers, are expected to move out of the area early tomorrow morning. Skies will clear behind front as surface high pressure builds in, creating deep layer subsidence. Winds behind front are expected to be a little bit gusty (25-30 mph) out of the north-northeast through the morning tomorrow before the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures will only climb into the mid-to-upper 60s, with lows falling into the mid-to-upper 40s, bringing that Fall feel back to the area. Weak mid-level ridging is progged across the western/central CONUS into the weekend, allowing heights to rise and temperatures to return to the 70s. A shortwave is expected to move across the northern Plains early next week, bringing another cold front to the area, but precipitation chances are nearly 0%. This, along with surface high pressure building back into the area, will cool temperatures slightly, back towards the 60s, but higher amplitude ridging is forecast to follow. This will result in a warming trend, with temperatures climbing towards the low 80s by Wednesday and Thursday next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Shower activity will remain likely at all four airport locations throughout the rest of the evening into the overnight hours. Additionally, overcast skies will remain around the 1,500-2,500 ft level. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely remain in place late tonight into the early tomorrow morning time frame. Winds will be consistently from the northeast at around 10kts with an occasional gusts to around 20kts. A boundary will continue to push through late tonight and into tomorrow, which will result in a gradual diminish of shower activity and cloud cover. Cloud cover will be much reduced for Friday, and as a result, expect VRF conditions throughout the day.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for MOZ011>014-020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.