textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of showers and storms will be likely across the area until Thursday night. Potential for heavy rainfall and flooding.

- Friday and the weekend to be more pleasant as high pressure brings more October-like air to the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An upper-level ridge is currently over our area, which has resulted in drier conditions and slightly above average temperatures over the last couple of days. This ridging pattern is going to come to a close as the feature progresses to our east as we shift to seeing the influence of a cut-off low currently over the desert southwest. The low will continue to progress eastward, and interact with the remnants of Hurricane Polo across northern Mexico. As a result, flow will be enhanced, and additional moisture will be advected into our region. The big story will be the high PWAT values potentially exceeding 2", and combining it with our trough will contribute to a flooding concern across northwest Missouri. We have given a flood watch over those areas as the high PWAT values, moisture content, and system duration will lead to heavy rainfall and training. These factors will result in areas seeing 2"-4" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible over the next few days.

Southerly flow associated with the ridge has allowed for temperatures to get up into the 80s, along with moisture transport from the Gulf. Our upper-level ridge progression today will allow a low-level jet to progress over the area, which is resulting in isolated showers throughout this afternoon and evening. The low- level jet will strengthen tonight, and rainfall chances will become much more widespread tonight, and last through late tomorrow morning, especially in Kansas and areas north of Interstate 70 in Missouri. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible with this round of activity, but the highest chances of seeing actual thunderstorms will be in Kansas, due to higher amounts of instability staying out there. Today and tonight's rainfall will have an effect on how high temperatures get for Wednesday. Areas north of Interstate 70, which will see the greatest coverage of showers and cloud cover will remain in the 70s, while our southern counties that stay dry may end up pushing into the lower 90s.

After a quick break Wednesday afternoon and evening, the remnants of storms that develop across central Kansas and Oklahoma will make their way to the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Chances to see sub-severe storms will possible with this round of activity, as the upper-low pressure system progresses eastward and gives us cold-air aloft to get higher values of instability. On-and-off storm chances are anticipated to persist throughout the day Thursday, and will continue to contribute to the flooding risk. A cold front will then pass through Thursday night, and therefore, will help push off the rain and high temperatures. Our trough and closed-low will continue to progress through the area, and will merge in with zonal flow across the southern Canadian border. Zonal flow to our north will lead to a break from the rain starting Friday morning and throughout the weekend. Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower, but high pressure will advect cooler air from the north, resulting in a drier and more seasonable weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 701 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

An expansive swath of showers has moved into the area this evening, though most locations will experience generally VFR conditions through the period. During the heaviest showers, VIS could drop into MVFR or even brief IFR, but due to the short duration and low predictability of heavier precipitation, did not message this in the TAFs. The exception is at KSTJ, where MVFR/IFR CIGS and VIS will be more likely overnight with a persistent heavier region of rainfall expected. For the metro terminals, precipitation will become more isolated to scattered after sunrise. There is a very low chance for a few thunderstorms between 14-17z, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAFs for this issuance.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012. KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for KSZ102.