textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer This Afternoon and Wednesday

- Arctic Air Returns Late Thursday

- Snow Potential Friday and Saturday, High Uncertainty in Track of System

DISCUSSION

Issued at 412 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Closed mid-level low is still sitting over the Northern Great Lakes region with broad troughing expanding the Mid-Atlantic and eastern CONUS. 100+ kt jet streak at H5 has pushed into the Ohio River Valley, and has left most of the central CONUS on the anticyclonic side of the jet streak with stronger dAVA over the past several hours. This has been reinforcing the surface anticyclone across Missouri, with a gradual track southeastward during the early morning hours. Lingering mid-level moisture provided cloud cover during much of the overnight, which helped slow down radiational cooling across most of the area. Lows this morning should bottom out in the lower teens for most of the area, and perhaps areas adjacent to the Iowa state line may drop into the single digits for an hour or two before sunrise. Heading into the afternoon today, as dAVA into the lower Mississippi River Valley guides the anticyclone further southeastward, along with a weak short-wave over the Northern Rockies providing surface pressure falls over the Front Range and may extend in to the central Plains, low-level flow turns west-southwesterly. There is also adiabatic compression heating occurring into the High Plains, where 850mb temperatures are progged to reach around +15C. This will result in WAA that should reach into central Missouri, sending temperatures into the mid 40s across much of the area. The far northeastern zones of the forecast area will miss out on much of the WAA though, with temperatures likely in the lower 30s. Wednesday, another weak H5 disturbance moves through the Sand Hills of Nebraska. This concentrated area of dCVA will result in decreasing surface pressure across Nebraska, and will split apart the cyclone that developed during the afternoon on Tuesday with the northern part quickly moving toward central Iowa. The other portion of that cyclone gets pushed toward the OK/TX panhandle region as an area of subsidence develops an anticyclone roughly centered across northwestern Kansas. Expecting low-level flow for the eastern Plains of Kansas into Central Missouri to remain west-southwesterly providing continued WAA. In this synoptic setup, most of the lift misses the area, and we actually see a dry slot around 700mb come into play for us, for the exception of far northern Missouri along the Iowa state line. Therefore, with the best forcing missing us, as well as best moisture transport, our forecast remains dry heading into the Wednesday. Will leave the mention of scattered flurries along the IA-MO state line, as the periphery of the forcing may be able to produce a few flakes, or sprinkles, if this happens will temperatures are above freezing. But the notable precipitation largely misses out area both to the north and to the south.

Late Wednesday, both of the H5 features as well as the surface cyclones exit the picture with anticyclone expanding across most of the Central CONUS. Closed H5 low over Hudson Bay though will keep mid and upper-level flow northwesterly heading into Thursday, with strongest jet streak over the the Great Lakes Region. This leaves the Canadian Prairie Provinces on the anticyclonic side of a strong jet streak, developing a strong high pressure system that will move southward, brining along with it an Arctic Airmass. This will be in competition with few short-wave disturbances coming out of the southwestern CONUS though, as a PV anomaly off the California coast promotes mid-level troughing. If this can keep low level flow southwesterly through Thursday afternoon, we may see temperatures reach back into the lower 30s before the Arctic Air arrives later in the evening, though there are few solutions that show the front propagating much faster and getting to Central Missouri by the afternoon. By late evening, the cold air will likely be here, sending low temperatures into the single digits for most of the area, while areas south of U.S. Hwy. 50 may be able to hold onto lower teens for low temperatures. Depending on how strong the surface pressure changes are heading into the evening, winds could become gusty resulting in below zero wind chills heading into Friday morning. Before getting into the complicated snow potential Friday into Saturday, will point out that regardless of precipitation, very cold conditions are expected this weekend, with highs struggling to reach the 20s for most of the area, and multiple mornings of wind chills lower than 10F below, and northern Missouri could easily see wind chills between 15F and 25F below zero.

Forcing and moisture availability Friday into Saturday remains a complex picture. While we have a strong surface anticyclone sitting over much of the Central CONUS, we will have the troughing over the southwestern CONUS sending multiple short-wave perturbations through much of the southern CONUS, while the low sitting over Hudson Bay is progged to send another shot of vorticity across the upper Midwest and into portions of the middle Mississippi River Valley. In deterministic guidance, specifically the GFS and ECMWF, solutions are still very different. The GFS maintains a mid-level closed system over the southwest that sends several short-waves, that traverses closer to the Gulf coast after traveling across the southern Plains, and the GFS has stronger H5 height falls into northern Missouri which overall pushes the surface anticyclone and dry air south of Interstate 70. Compare that to the deterministic ECMWF, which takes the southwestern CONUS troughing is moves the bulk of further eastward into the southern Plains, and delays the forcing that drops from the Hudson Bay low until Sunday, which creates two different times of mid-level height falls. But Friday into Saturday, this allows more Gulf moisture to advect northward of Interstate 70, and the surface anticyclone does not move as far south, potentially setting up a stalled boundary somewhere in Central Missouri allowing for better convergence. As a result, the GFS keeps most of area fairly dry, while the ECMWF paints minor snowfall accumulations. At least both models right now are indicating the heavier snowfall axis with this activity to remain well south of the area. But with how large these discrepancies are, could be a case where everything is off by nearly 100 miles. As for ensembles, snowfall probabilities have shifted southward with overnight cycles. Leaving most of our area at 25 percent or lower for snow accumulations exceeding one inch. This is also highlighting a sharp cut-off in moisture, which would mean wherever the snowfall axis occurs, will have a sharp gradient on the northern end of it. Taking a peak, the experimental AI-GFS ensemble output, it is a bit more robust with QPF extending northward of Interstate 70, which is vastly different than both its deterministic and GEFS mean counterpart. But this could easily be skewing the surface and mid-level pattern picture, therefore will not lean into these probabilities at this time. With the current guidance, measurable snowfall along and south of Interstate 70 appears likely. The main question, is does it get above 1 inch, and what are the impacts like. And, what kind of isallobaric gradient are we going to see in this setup, which will determine how the strong winds will be as precipitation occurs.

Beyond the weekend, weather pattern could remain unsettled as the PV anomaly off the southern California coast fully advects eastward, that could bring a stronger trough and more precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

High pressure will keep conditions VFR today. A few wind gusts around 20kts may be possible this afternoon but should subside after sunset. Winds will also shift a few times through the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.