textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures are likely today. The daily maximum for the Kansas City area will easily be broken. The warmest March temperature for KC is also in play.

- Southwesterly wind gusts of 30-40 mph will continue this afternoon ahead of strong cold front. Then, winds become northerly/northeasterly behind the front with additional wind gusts to 40 mph through the late evening and overnight hours. - A strong cold front will move through the area this evening, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms developing behind the front. Highest chances for storms will be south of Highway 24 with a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm. Large hail is the main threat. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than 0.50 inch.

- Elevated to critical fire conditions expected on Friday (Red Flag Warning) and Saturday (Fire Weather Watch), especially along and west of I-35. Humidity will drop below 25% with gusty northerly winds Friday and southerly winds Saturday. - Low temperatures Saturday morning will bottom out in the 20s to low 30s. Folks with agricultural/horticultural interest will need to protect sensitive vegetation that has emerged early this spring.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper air analysis shows a strong mid level ridge over the southern US however a shortwave could be seen moving through the Rockies. 12z soundings from TOP and SGF show a substantial elevated mixed layer (CAP) with steep lapse rates above. As of early this afternoon, a cold front was moving through SE Nebraska and will be entering far NW Missouri by mid/late afternoon. Ahead of the front, temps were very warm for late March with many locations well into the 80s. Dewpoints have also increased into the upper 50s to around 60. There are some attempts at elevated shower/thunderstorm development along the front however they are struggling with the lack of stronger forcing and capping inversion.

Hot and Windy This Afternoon/Evening: Before the front arrives this evening, temps will likely top out around 90 with a few areas in the lower 90s. This will likely break records (see climate section below) Gusty south winds will veer to the southwest with continued gusts up to 40mph.

Thunderstorm Chances Tonight: Looking at the 12z HREF and latest guidance, confidence is high that thunderstorms will struggle to develop along the front, if they occur at all. HREF reflectivity paintball plots really hone in on an area of post frontal shower and thunderstorm development after 10pm along and south of Highway 36. This appears to be along the 850mb front and when the area gets into a maximized right entrance region of the upper level jet across the northern plains. Forecast soundings during this time show 50-60kts of 0-6km bulk shear with around 1000j/kg of MU CAPE. Therefore if storms can develop and become organized then a few could become severe. Most storms however will likely be subsevere but given the CAPE/Shear combo, a reasonable maximum hail size of golfballs could occur east of the KC metro. There are a few CAMS that dont show any storms therefore confidence is low with the severe potential. Mean rainfall amounts from the NBM and HREF are less than 0.50inch with some areas north of Highway 36 seeing little if any rainfall. Showers/storms will likely have cleared the area by sunrise if not well before. Outside of any thunderstorms, general synoptic wind gusts of 30-40mph out of the north will be common.

Fire Weather Friday and Saturday: Behind the front, a much drier airmass will filter into the area Friday with clearing skies. Afternoon RH values look to drop into the 15-25% range for areas along and west of I-35, including the KC metro. Surface winds and gusts will not be as high as today however BUFKIT momentum transfers suggest gusts around 25-locally 30 mph with sustained winds around 15-20mph. While winds are borderline for Red Flag Warning criteria, the very low RH and already susceptible fuels from fire weather partners support a Red Flag Warning tomorrow for portions of the area. On Saturday, winds turn southerly as high pressure moves east of the area. This will promote increasing southerly winds and given the dry airmass in place, elevated to critical fire conditions will be in place for similar areas as Friday (mainly along and west of I-35 including the KC metro). Models typically struggle with RH in departing surface high regimes therefore RH values could drop further into the teens for Saturday with additional updates likely. Therefore we have issued a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday for the same areas as Fridays warning.

Cold Temp Concerns Saturday Morning: With the very dry air in place and a surface high overhead, confidence continues to increase in low temps dropping below freezing for Saturday morning. The latest NBM has a 60-90% chance of temps less than 32 degrees for areas north of I-70. Ag interests will need to monitor temp trends for Sat morning and take proper precautions.

Mid level ridging and warmer air looks to build in for late weekend into early next week. Rain/Thunderstorm chances do increase Tuesday into mid week as a pattern shift to southwest flow looks to take place.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

While winds have shifted NE/N across the TAF sites by the beginning of this TAF period, they remain quite gusty. Expect ongoing gusts into the 30s kts for much of the evening, with some nominal easing toward the mid 20s kts overnight. The primary uncertainty in the forecast continues to revolve around SHRA/TSRA potential. General guidance continues to place the TAF sites on the western edge of development, limiting confidence in coverage and duration. Given that, have opted for TEMPOs around the KC Metro sites and PROB30 for KSTJ, reflecting greater confidence in development/coverage toward and south KC Metro area. Best prevailing MVFR ceiling chances remain displaced eastward, leaving degraded conditions tied to any SHRA/TSRA reductions in visibility. Gradually skies clear into Friday as well as winds late in the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

March 30: KMCI: 82/1986 KSTJ: 86/1968

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>006- 011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for MOZ001>006-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.