textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/Freeze Headlines beginning tonight through tomorrow morning, with temperatures falling at/below freezing for areas east of US-65.

- Warm, dry forecast ahead through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Much of the late morning and early afternoon has been dreary for northwestern MO/northeastern KS with low clouds and patchy light drizzle. Low clouds have begun to clear across far northeastern MO with the advection of dry low-level air from the north, which will allow clear skies for areas generally east of US-65 going into the evening. As surface high pressure slides to the southeast during the evening, a layer of dense, cold air will settle over much of MO and eastern KS overnight. Winds will also calm closer to the center of high pressure, which will inhibit the ability of low clouds to mix out further to the west and south overnight. Current frost/freeze headlines still reflect general expectations for temperature trends across the area, but cloud cover still remains the focus for any deviations in the temperature forecast overnight... For areas where skies remain clear overnight and winds remain light/calm, enhanced radiational cooling will contribute to temperatures falling at/below freezing overnight. However, for areas that remain under dense cloud cover, temperatures will trend slightly warmer than freezing overnight.

Surface high pressure will continue sliding off towards the southeast through the day on Saturday, with temperatures beginning to warm under weak WAA in the low levels to the high 60s/low 70s by early next week. Weak ascent in the mid/upper levels could contribute to lingering cloud cover during the day Saturday, but otherwise the synoptic pattern becomes relatively benign under west/northwest flow in the upper levels with quasi-zonal flow, keeping the forecast warm and dry for the early week. Synoptic guidance continues to indicate the passage of a mid-level trough to the northeast as mid-level ridging builds over the western CONUS by midweek next week, but some disagreement remains on precipitation placement/trough passage, leaving some uncertainty on forecast details around that timeframe. However, with the passage of the trough, winds shifting out of the north will introduce cooler, drier air by the end of the forecast period, cooling temperatures down to the low 60s/upper 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Pesky stratus remains the main aviation restriction within the TAF period. As has been expected, stratus has stuck around more prominently during this weak cold air advection regime. Expectation remains for stratus to blanket the TAF sites through the overnight and morning hours. Ceilings begin to improve through the day and should begin to clear out mid-late afternoon to evening hours. Winds go light to calm overnight with surface high pressure over the area, gradually giving way to light SW winds during the latter portions of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-038-043-044-053- 054. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-039-040-045-046. KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.