textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold this morning. Air temperatures near zero with apparent temperatures as cold as -15.

- Light snow and flurries possible Saturday night - Sunday. Little, if any accumulation expected.

- Slight chance for precipitation Tuesday east of Kansas City into central and eastern MO. Trends have been to shift this precipitation chance east of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A 1040+ mb surface highs is sliding south into eastern Nebraska and Kansas early this morning. This track is keeping surface winds slightly elevated, generally in the 5-10 kt range. That little bit of mixing will help keep temperatures from plummeting well below zero, compared to if the center of the high was moving overhead. Regardless, it's still bitterly cold with air temperatures in the single digits above zero, as of 08Z. Early morning lows should fall to near zero, with temperatures several degrees below zero in our northwestern zones, and several degrees above zero in our southeastern zones. With the wind, apparent temperatures fall into -5 to -15 range. For today, that surface high slowly tracks south of the area, we'll see light winds and clear skies through most of the day, with highs climbing into the 20s, about 20 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Late this afternoon and into the overnight hours, clouds will increase in response to the next shortwave trough that will affect the area during the overnight hours and into Sunday. As that shortwave tracks east out of Kansas, modest ascent develops. Forecast soundings continue show relatively deep dry subcloud layer. This layer is not as deep further north and that's where the best chances for light snow will reside as result. While it looks like most areas will see some snow, the dry air on the southern side of this system suggests most of the forecast area will see just flurries. North of Highway 36 will have the best chance for actual light snow. Though even there, only a dusting is expected. Ensemble guidance shows roughly a 25-60% chance for at 0.1" of snow for northern Missouri. This drops to about 5-15% chance for 0.5". One thing to note is the low probability of freezing drizzle as the main area of light snow exits. Forecast soundings, particularly from the NAM, which may be due to its moist low-levels bias, show a brief window when cloud ice is lost with subfreezing temperatures, before drier air overwhelms things. Probabilities seem too low to carry a mention at this time, but something to keep in mind with this system.

As this system moves away, upper-level ridging builds into the middle of the country for the first part of the work week. This will lead to warmer temperatures, and the first above normal values since January 22nd. The next shortwave will affect the region Tuesday into Wednesday. The trend with this wave has been to push the surge of moisture east of the forecast area. So this leaves just the far eastern portions of the forecast with just a slight chance for any precipitation Tuesday morning. That said, this still could be mixed depending on the timing of the precipitation and how far north it may get.

Upper-level ridging builds for the later part of next week and as a result, we'll see a period with above normal temperatures Thursday - Saturday. High temperatures may push into the lower 50s across the southwestern half of the forecast area Friday, which may feel like a heatwave compared to what we've experienced the last couple of weeks.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Light north winds will become light southerly late in the forecast. Skies will be clear initially, but clouds will increase this afternoon with bases lowering overnight/early tomorrow morning. There is a low probability of -SN late in the forecast for all terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.