textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Powerful storm system moving the region today - Monday

- Strong winds to 60 mph expected to continue this afternoon into the overnight hours.

- Periods of snow and possible snow squalls this afternoon and evening leading to reduced brief reductions in visibility and slick spots on area roads as temperatures plummet this evening and tonight.

- Temperatures will fall into the single digits and teens by early Monday morning, leading to wind chill values as low as -15 to -18 along the IA/MO state line.

* Light precipitation possible Tuesday night - Wednesday morning for northern/northeastern to central MO.

* Temperatures rebound Wednesday - Saturday, with record highs possible Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A powerful early spring storm system is moving through the Central/Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest this afternoon. A very strong cold front has moved through forecast area as of 18Z, with winds increasing markedly behind the front from the northwest. We've already seen wind gusts in excess of 50 mph from late this morning/early this afternoon. Winds will continue to increase this afternoon through this evening as the upper-level PV anomaly moves overhead. This will help to steepen low-level lapse rates allowing for deeper mixing into very strong winds aloft. This will result in wind gusts of 50-60 mph this afternoon into the overnight hours. The strongest gusts will be across northern MO this evening and it looks like winds begin to decrease after 06Z from west to east as the system moves away from the area. Despite the diminishing winds, will keep the wind advisory going through noon Monday as it still looks windy. The advisory can be cancelled early if needed.

Additionally, with the PV anomaly moving overhead and the resulting steepening of low-level lapse rates, a small amount of CAPE will be generated. This is coincident with areas of snow. Models continue to show very high values for the snow squall parameter, with values in excess of 6 units. This is very high and far exceeds the values we saw during the mid-Januray snow squalls. Given all this, at least one or more snow squalls look possible within the deformation area of the system as it moves through later this afternoon and evening. Snow squalls can quickly create blizzard like conditions with a brief burst of snow reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less. This could result in compression for travelers as they encounter rapidly diminished visibility, potentially leading to accidents and may also lead to slick road conditions as temperatures drop. Precipitation will begin to diminish from west to east between 06Z and 12Z and expect all precipitation to be east of the forecast area by 12Z Monday. With the potential impacts on area roads, a winter weather advisory was issued for various start and end times to try and capture the timing trends for the changeover to snow and the exiting of the precipitation as the event is winding down.

The last aspect of this system is the bitter cold air surging into the area. By early Monday morning, low temperatures will have fallen into the single digits and teens across the area. With winds still strong and gusty, wind chill values as low as -15 to -18 are expected in far northern MO along the IA/MO state line. After coordinating with neighboring offices, will hold off on any cold weather advisory for now.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 138 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

For the later portions of the forecast, high temperatures will surge into the 70s and 80s. A very strong upper-level ridge will build over western North America. This will allow temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s on Wednesday, upper 70s on Thursday, and potentially record breaking warmth on Friday. The record high for MCI and STJ is 82 with MCI set in 1953 and STJ set in 1934. Our current forecast ties the record for MCI and breaks it for STJ. These temperatures are more akin to late May and early June.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 717 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

High confidence in continued gusty northwest winds up to 40 knots and mostly IFR conditions through 5z, with a chance for brief periods of LIFR VIS. VIS may bounce frequently between categories during periods of light to moderate snow, varying between 1/4 SM to 5 SM. Conditions should begin to improve by 3z, but MVFR BKN012-BKN025 CIGs are likely to persist through around 10z Monday. Winds and gusts should begin to lessen a bit by around 6z, with gusts coming down below 25 knots by mid Monday afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011-012- 020-028. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001>004- 011>013-020-021-028-029-037. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011- 012-020-028. Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for MOZ025-029>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. High Wind Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for MOZ003>008-013>017- 021>024. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ003>008- 013>017-021>024. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for MOZ005>008- 014>017-022>025-030>033-038>040-046. KS...High Wind Warning until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025- 102>105. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103. Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for KSZ057-060-104-105.