textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions are expected through early Friday morning. A wind advisory is in effect. Additionally, low relative humidity will lead to conditions favorable for rapid fire spread in relatively dry portions of northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. A red flag warning is in effect through late Thursday evening.

- A northern-stream system may bring a brief bout of light rain or snow to far northern and northeastern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning (less than 30 percent chance). Little or no meaningful impacts are expected.

- A strong storm system will affect the region Sunday and Sunday night. Very windy conditions are expected Sunday afternoon and night. Showers and thunderstorms may occur Sunday morning (up to a 50 percent chance), but chances for any severe weather are fairly low. Wraparound snow may occur with the system Sunday afternoon and evening, but confidence is very low on coverage, timing, and intensity. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts as details become clearer.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A busy forecast for the short-term period, with dry and windy conditions this afternoon/evening leading to fire-weather concerns, a weak system glancing the northern portions of the forecast area Friday night, and a strong and potentially quite impactful system affecting the area on Sunday and Sunday night.

A strong surface low is moving through the northern Plains today, attendant to a potent vorticity maximum progressing rapidly east-southeastward on the heels of a deeper eastern North America trough. A strong pressure gradient is developing to the low's south, bringing a lengthy period of strong southwesterly surface winds to the central Plains this afternoon/evening. Given the dry origins of this flow, very low relative humidity will be observed through the evening hours. With winds of 20 to 30+ mph and gusts to 45+ mph at times, conditions are quite favorable for rapid fire spread in areas that have seen little rainfall recently (northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri). Red flag conditions have already begun in these areas and look to be a slam dunk through the evening hours. A wind advisory has also been issued for the entire CWA, as HREF probabilities exceed 80% for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph this afternoon and evening. It appears the peak winds may occur during the evening hours, when the synoptically-augmented low- level jet nocturnally increases in advance of trough passage. The low-level jet may exceed 60-70 kt during the evening hours, and if the near-surface profiles can remain well-mixed (which is likely given the strong antecedent winds this afternoon), occasional gusts above 50 mph can be expected.

Winds will gradually lower overnight but still remain quite elevated as directions veer to a northwesterly direction by Friday morning. Cold advection will lead to a slightly cooler day Friday, but the progressive upper flow will allow for a quick transition to a neutral and then warm advection regime by Friday evening. Conditions should be dry through Friday.

The aforementioned warm advection on Friday evening is expected to generate an area of light precipitation to our north Friday night into Saturday morning. This appears most favorable in South Dakota, southern Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa; however, the northwest upper flow may allow some progression of the precipitation southeastward into far northern Missouri. Longer- range MPAS CAMs are indicative of this potential Friday night, with low-level thermodynamic profiles favorable for snow if the timing of the precipitation is late in the overnight hours. Overall, this potential is low for our forecast area (less than 20 percent) and confined to our far northern Missouri counties. However, we will keep an eye on model trends here in case lighter precipitation is able to generate and progress farther south. Any precipitation amounts would be light, however.

After a period of transient ridging on Saturday (bringing another day of warm temperatures...highs in the upper 60s to low 70s), a strong system rapidly digging through the Rockies on Saturday will approach the region Saturday night and Sunday. By Sunday morning, a sub-1000-mb surface low is expected to develop in the central Plains, with strong large-scale ascent leading to a break-out of precipitation within the warm sector and on the north side of the system (eventually wrapping to the west side of the surface low). Models are all over the place here, though, with the faster models basically preventing wraparound precipitation (snow) from reaching our forecast area before the low moves too far east of the region. The slower models, however, give us a several-hour period of wraparound snow, with temperatures crashing on the upstream side of the system and very strong winds. Ensemble probabilities of advisory-level winds are already 50-80 percent Sunday afternoon and evening, which is contextually quite high this far in advance (signifying high confidence). But the very different surface low evolutions make the precipitation forecast much more challenging. That said, NBM probabilities of measurable snow Sunday afternoon/evening generally exceed 50 percent across the CWA (and are mostly 70-90 percent). Probabilities for advisory-level snow (roughly 2 inches) are generally 25-50 percent west of U.S. 65 and 35-65 percent east of U.S. 65. In other words, meaningful snow is on the table with this system, and combined with the winds, could be fairly impactful. With such a wide variety of outcomes possible with this system, it is wise to pay attention to subsequent forecasts as details inevitably become clearer.

Another potential with this system is warm-sector showers/storms Sunday morning. Thermodynamic profiles show decent CAPE in the warm sector (500-1500 J/kg). If convection can initiate Sunday morning (before the synoptic front moves through the area), it is not completely out of the question a strong or severe storm occurs given very strong deep-layer shear in place. Temperatures aloft will be cold, so small to marginally-severe hail appears to be the main threat with any storms that can develop. However, think the overall severe potential is much higher to our south and east.

Any wraparound snow on the cold side of the system is expected to exit the region Sunday night, with winds gradually subsiding. The incoming cold will be a shock to the system, with temperatures crashing during the day Sunday and being well below freezing Sunday night (lows potentially in the single digits and teens). If you can believe it, wind chills near or below zero are in the cards Sunday night and Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

After a cold day Monday and another cold night Monday night (highs in the 20s and 30s; lows generally in the single digits and teens), upper ridging should translate slowly eastward into the central U.S. by the middle of next week. Some models are showing a weak perturbation in the predecessor northwest flow Tuesday and Tuesday night, with chances of light precipitation (rain or snow, depending on how cold temperatures get Tuesday night and the timing of the system overall). However, the general trend should be warmer and drier with time, as the high- amplitude and large ridge becomes more and more anchored to the western and central U.S. Long-range models have highs well into the 70s by late next week. Our bout of winter late this weekend should be mercifully brief.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Very strong low level jet ahead of cold front leading to gusty winds will gradually shift south and east overnight. Lighter northwest winds develop on Friday, transitioning to light easterly winds Friday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Friday for MOZ001>005-011>014- 020>022-028>030-037. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for MOZ006>008-015>017- 023>025-031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Wind Advisory until 2 AM CDT Friday for KSZ025-102>105. Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for KSZ057-060.