textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures expected Thursday

- Elevated fire danger with dry fuels and gusty winds on Thursday, and even more so on Friday as dry airmass builds into the the region.

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Low pressure over the arrowhead of Minnesota is expected to shift east along the US/Canadian border. Warm front associated with this system has lead to well above normal temperatures and temperatures warming into the upper 70s- lower 80s region wide. Increasing flow at 925 hpa from 20 to 30 knots will lead to stronger gusts while the surface layer remains mixed. Low level jet increases this evening closer to 40 knots, keeping low temperatures tonight near seasonal highs for this time of year. Gusty conditions are expected to quickly return as mixing ensues on Thursday morning. The gusty winds along with dry fuels will create elevated fire weather conditions. Have raised high temperatures closer to the 50% percentile, which is well above the record max temp for Thursday. Cold front associated with the trough to the north is expected to sweep south late in the afternoon hours, but has slowed a few hours compared to previous model runs. Instability ahead of front increases towards 1000-1200 J/kg of MU CAPE, but looks to be capped. Behind the front, there is the potential of showers and thunderstorms, though near surface moisture looks to be limited. Even with the warmer temperatures, only have RH values falling to 25- 30 percent across far northwestern Missouri so have elected to not issue a fire weather watch at this time.

CAMs have also slowed upper level wave moving through the region Thursday evening leading to sparse coverage in shower and thunderstorm activity. Deterministic models are still fairly aggressive with light rain showers Thursday night into Friday morning, especially along and south of I-70, though instability is very limited.

Drier, cooler airmass builds into the region on Friday as Canadian high pressure works south across the Western Plains. With the dry nature of the airmass, expect dew points to fall into the teens and 20s, leading to afternoon RH values of 20 -30 percent. With gusty northerly flow, will likely need a fire weather headline with a focus north of the Missouri River.

Surface ridge is expected to shift east across the region Friday night leading to nearly ideal radiative conditions. This will lead to widespread frost, and sub-freezing temperatures along and north of highway 50.

Temperatures are expected to warm through the weekend, with winds increasing late in the weekend as series of troughs develop across the western plains. This will lead to a more unsettled weather pattern across the region with more record highs and the chance for thunderstorms through much of the first half of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

While VFR conditions are expected to prevail, there are a couple of items of note. After easing of winds tonight/overnight, winds quickly increase Thursday morning, becoming gust out of the SW into the mid 20s kts by mid-morning. By late morning and early afternoon, gusts into the lower 30s kts will be possible with occasional gusts into the mid 30s kts. Overall, winds will be a little lighter at KSTJ vs the trio of metro sites. Late in the period, cold front pushes through, quickly turning winds out of the NW and remaining gusty into at least the mid 20s kts. Potential for 30s kt gusts outside this TAF period/overnight Thursday. Additionally, low end chance for some scattered showers/thunderstorms at the end of the period, just prior and/or post-frontal passage. Given low confidence, have withheld any prevailing mentions at this point in time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KMCI: 90/1907 KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

March 30: KMCI: 82/1986 KSTJ: 86/1968

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.