textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon - overnight. - SPC Slight and Enhanced Risks over portions of the area. - WPC Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall

- Drier with more seasonal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday/ Sunday AM, with some potential for light snow across northern MO

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Local Thoughts on SPC SWODY1 Outlook:

The 06z issuance of the SWODY1 has no notable deviations from the previous SWODY2 issuances for activity late this afternoon through evening, continuing overnight. Synoptically, the 00z CAMs and now the initial 06z CAM guidance that is coming in continues to push the cold front further south. This is because the the H5 short-wave across the northern Plains is digging more, sending the vort maxima further south. This is also causing the cold front to propagate at faster speed behind the deepening surface cyclone. Between 850-700mb, southwesterly flow is slightly stronger, increasing the strength of the EML that will be present above a boundary layer that is set experience strong theta-e transport throughout the day. The meaning of this EML development does two things. 1.) Strengthens the convective inhibition (cap) further and 2.) Increases boundary layer mixing, which increases surface based CAPE and temperatures this afternoon ahead of the front, leading to a fairly potent warm sector from the eastern Plains and into the Great Lakes Region ahead of the cold front. Kinematically the environment is still primed to provide plenty of deep layer shear (0- 6km bulk shear vectors 40-50 kt) close to the front, 30-40kts across the open warm sector. As the mid-level and upper-level jet streak enter the area as a stronger lobe of mid-level vorticity ejects northeastward from the southern Plains closed-low system, mid and upper-level hodographs are set to elongate. With how strong the expected CINH is, convective initiation will be difficult to come by between 20z-00z late this afternoon, despite broadscale lift and region of surface pressure falls. The 00z CAMs and a few of the available 06z CAMs develop nothing in the open warm- sector because of this, even with MUCAPE values pushing upward of 2500 J/kg per 00z HREF mean. Therefore, expecting an agitated cumulus field to develop this afternoon with increasing boundary layer moisture and steep mid- level lapse rates, but failure of DCI. So what if the atmosphere finds a way to push through the cap? From eastern KS to central MO, the elongated hodographs would be supportive of supercell development. The mid-level shear would support a robust mid-level mesocyclone development, with plenty of CAPE through the hail growth zone, and a non-detrimental magnitude of mid-level storm-relative flow to foster hail stones of 2 inches or perhaps larger. Depending on the degree of boundary layer mixing, theta-e deficits through the CBL could lead to damaging winds, especially in a stronger downdraft with a large degree of negative buoyancy. As for the tornado threat, for the bulk of our forecast area, will be hard to achieve if the cap is broken. While SRH values are fairly high due to the enhanced low-level flow, the hodograph shapes are more suggestive of crosswise vorticity, rather than streamwise, which would limit a storms ability to develop a low-level mesocyclone even with decent surface vorticity present. In order for the vorticity to become streamwise, a storm would need to take a hard right turn relative to the deep layer shear vector. But any storm moving with the mean wind will likely struggle to ingest what it needs. The more favorable tornado environment is going be from northeast Missouri and into Illinois, where along the triple point and region of surface troughing (very strong pressure falls) could promote the backing of surface winds needed for better streamwise vorticity. Therefore, between 20z-00z today if the cap manages to be broken, large hail and wind is likely your main story. LCLs potentially pushing upward of 1200m would also hinder tornadic potential.

Attention than turns after 00z, when the cold front increases convergence across eastern Kansas to Central Missouri, as well as the low-level jet ramping up and the potential for mid-level jet streak coupling, placing the lower Missouri River Valley in a spot favored for lift, though unsure if this would happen ahead of the surface cold front or be displaced behind it. The 00z and 06z CAMs show fairly rapid upscale growth, especially beyond 03z this evening. Some solutions have a well defined QLCS, other CAMs, at least in their simulated reflectivity fields are depicting more of an MCS. The one change with the 06z CAMs has been the heavier QPF axis being pushed further south, with not much happening north of Interstate 70. With respect to severe potential, wind gusts with strong cold pool development would be the primary hazard, reaching between 60-70 MPH. A few local enhancements could be possible if any kind bowing segment or rear-inflow jet is able to develop. A few stronger cores early on cell development along the front may produce a hail stones between quarter and half-dollar size, but this hail threat will quickly diminish with upscale growth. Given the strong background kinematics, a brief spin-up along a linear system cannot be ruled out, but the orientation of the 0-3km shear vector suggested by deterministic CAMs is not currently conducive to persistent mesovortex development. In addition to wind hazards, heavy rainfall is possible and may lead to flooding issues. Compared to the model runs yesterday, the cold front is pushing through at a faster rate, and the 850-300mb mean wind vectors are not as parallel to the initiating boundary as they previously were. While training storms relative to the front are still likely, the movement of the front and stronger cold pool with the system may prevent training from occurring over a specific geographic location. Faster moving front is good news from a hydrology perspective. The 06z CAMs are coming in further south with the heaviest QPF axis, which is now south of the KC metro by about 25-30 miles. The HRRR specifically has a stripe of 1.0 to 1.5 inches. The 00z HREF probability matched mean output does have a few pockets of over 2 inches, but this was further north based on previous cam output of a cold front that was further north and not as progressive. The main flooding concern may end up being confined to the KC metro due to the urban landscape. Rural communities that have been in drought may be spared flooding hazards if the storms remain as progressive as the last few cycles of the CAMs have suggested. Given the variability of the front position, as well as the heavier QPF axis, have not yet issued a Flood Watch. The 12z HREF probability matched mean field may be able to give us a better handle on where the heaviest QPF axis falls, and will give the day shift time to assess the need for a flood watch especially since the flooding may not occur until the overnight hours. Or, may occur if there is in backfilling convection early Wednesday morning if another short-wave trough provides lift behind the main front. Even if Flash Flooding ends up not being an issue, still expecting creeks and streams to rise, especially in the KC metro.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong to severe storms are likely from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Very warm and humid conditions will develop tomorrow afternoon as a surface low tracks across the area. Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s (which will be close to records for the KC area), dewpoints in the middle 60s, and steep 700mb to 500mb lapse rates will combine to lead to a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values pushing 2000-2500 J/kg. With modest to strong mid to upper level flow streaming overhead, deep-layer shear will be quite favorable organized convection. Storms that develop within this environment will be supercells capable of large/very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. This looks most favorable over the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area, in an around the enhanced risk area. Looking over various forecast soundings from various models over that area, many of the analogs show very large hail. The main uncertainty remains if storms will be able to develop during the late afternoon as there is still some inhibition left. Given that storms should be tied to the front where there would be enough forcing to overcome the inhibition. As storms evolve and grow upscale, the main threat will trend to damaging winds. This looks more likely with the storms that may move into the area from the west along and just head of the front. Additionally, heavy rain with a flash flood threat remains possible. Though there is still considerable variability in the where the heaviest swath of rainfall will reside and a slight trend southward. It seems most likely corridor for heavy rain and potential flash flooding will be from east central KS (Leavenworth to Miami Counties) east-northeastward to Macon down Pettis Counties. This includes the KC Metro.

Beyond Tuesday/Tuesday night, cooler and drier conditions are expected with highs generally in the 50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures warm up into the 60s and 70s Saturday, ahead of the next trough moving into the Central and Northern Plains. As that system dives into the Mid and Lower Missouri Valley, a strong cold front will move through the region. This system will also bring the next chance for precipitation to the area on Sunday with some potential for light snow across northern MO. This will greatly depend on just how much cold air is able to spill into the area. In the wake of this system, chilly conditions will prevail for the first part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Expecting VFR conditions through most of the afternoon, some periods of cloud cover is possible. Gusty southwesterly winds are expected with stronger pressure gradient and boundary layer mixing this afternoon. Isolated storms are possible later in the afternoon, but not confident enough to place in TAFs. As the cold front comes through, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this evening that could result in MVFR conditions, perhaps brief periods of IFR conditions. Showers may linger into the middle of the morning on Wednesday. Winds shift northwesterly behind the cold front by Wednesday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.