textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming up through the weekend into early next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 100s likely (greater than 60 percent chance) Saturday through at least Monday.

- Slight chances for storms (mostly less than 30 percent) through Sunday (with best chances north of U.S. Highway 36). If storms occur, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, with damaging winds the main threat.

- Chances for storms increase in the middle to latter portions of next week, with temperatures cooling down as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

There are a lot of forecast considerations in the short term, but overall, the forcing mechanisms for any sensible weather of note in our area are rather nebulous. Thus, probably the main concern in this portion of the forecast is the building heat returning to the region this weekend.

A broad upper ridge in the western U.S. continues to provide persistent northwest flow into the northern U.S. Perturbations embedded in the northwest flow are, as usual for this time of year, rather low-amplitude. Nevertheless, a notable shortwave trough from the southern prairies of Canada into the far north-central U.S. will intensify gradually today as it progresses southeastward into the Upper Midwest. An attendant cold front will move into the northern and central Plains this afternoon, with storms expected to develop rather early in the diurnal cycle. Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have shown little agreement on timing, coverage, and evolution of initiating storms, rendering quite low confidence on the overall storm threat in our area this afternoon into tonight. Synoptically, the main threat for storms would appear to be to our north, with the stronger forcing for ascent in closer proximity to the passing shortwave trough. However, CAMs are hinting at southward progression of semi-organized convection with time during the evening/overnight hours, with general decay of convection as the storms reach northern Missouri. Some models (e.g., the 00z RRFS/NAM Nest) would suggest southward migration of the storms to areas north of U.S. Highway 36 (particularly east of I-35) late this evening into the early overnight hours. Others (e.g., the 00z HRRR) are much farther east with such propagation, and decay the convection much more quickly. For now, think overall potential for storms in our CWA warrants slight-chance PoPs at most, and generally confined to our far north/northeast CWA.

Of more immediate concern are the storms developing in eastern Kansas early this morning. CAMs have been quite consistent in keeping this convection to the immediate west of our forecast area, before the storms diminish this morning as the nocturnal low-level jet weakens. So far, radar trends are holding here, but do think some low PoPs are warranted for areas west and south of the KC metro early this morning. It does appear that cloudiness associated with the convection to our west will linger through much of the morning immediately downstream of these storms, which may hold temperatures at bay somewhat, at least through the morning. Skies are expected to clear this afternoon, however, so current expectations are for warmer highs today (mid to upper 80s, generally).

Another more pressing concern is fog potential this morning in northern Missouri. In the mostly clear skies and light winds to the northeast of the convection developing in eastern Kansas, satellite imagery indicates fog developing in Nebraska and Iowa early this morning. Some of this fog will likely seep into northern Missouri, and may prove to become locally dense around daybreak. Any fog should dissipate a couple hours after sunrise. Some additional redevelopment may occur tonight, particularly in the wake of any convection that develops southward into the area late this evening.

The forecast remains similarly challenging for Saturday, with CAMs continuing to exhibit poor agreement and less-than-desired run-to-run continuity. Another weak perturbation will move east-southeast through the northern Plains, with one or more MCSs developing in this regime Saturday morning through Saturday evening. Of course, how this transpires is highly dependent on what develops beforehand. CAMs are, in particular, struggling with the evolution of an early-day MCS in South Dakota and Nebraska. The MCS may diurnally weaken as it approaches the Missouri Valley, or the MCS may persist long enough to become reinvigorated by boundary-layer heating downstream. This may bring convection into the forecast area during the afternoon and early evening, but this is also of very low confidence. On the other hand, in the absence of this predecessor MCS, more storms may develop to our north/west during the afternoon/evening and shift southeastward into the forecast area Saturday night. Whatever scenario wins, the northern forecast area would again be closer to the stronger larger-scale lift, and this is where higher PoPs reside (30-50 percent).

With time, the building ridge to our west should keep the storms farther and farther north of the area. Thus, expectations are for temperatures to warm during the weekend, with widespread 90s and heat indices of 95-105 on Saturday and mostly in the 100s on Sunday. If confidence increases that storms will be relatively sparse and of low duration sufficient to curb any cooling effects in the region, heat advisories may be required for Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 254 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

As the seasonally nebulous pattern continues into early next week, broad western-U.S. ridging should keep the heat around for at least Monday and likely into Tuesday (particularly for the southern half of the CWA). However, with time, perturbations embedded in the northern-U.S. northwest flow will chip away at the eastern extent of the ridge, allowing for closer intrusions of attendant convection and cooler air upstream of the perturbations. Of course, model guidance is exhibiting a lot of spread in the details by this point, particularly with timing of shortwave troughs in the northwest flow. Thus, confidence remains rather low with the precipitation forecast next week.

However, models are hinting at a more active period for the region around the middle to latter portions of next week. With perturbation after perturbation digging southeastward into the Midwest, multiple phenomena will exist to initiate and maintain storms at times. This process will also shunt the larger-scale ridging to the west of the region. Cold fronts should successfully move into/through the forecast area by later in the week, bringing temperatures back into the cooler 80s as the week rolls on. With this aspect of the forecast, confidence is a little higher, probably around average for a 7-day forecast in the warm season.

One thing to watch with this evolving pattern is if repeated rounds of convection are generated in a geographically confined region. If so, this would increase the flash flooding threat with time. Such a threat may encompass portions of our area. However, we will need far more agreement and consistency among model guidance before providing specifics on this potentially emerging threat.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period. Clear conditions overnight with calm to light southerly winds could allow for fog development across northern Missouri and southern Iowa tonight. Cloud cover is anticipated to build back in early Friday morning. CIGs are expected to remain VFR, but very brief drops to MVFR will be possible before returning to FEW/SKC conditions later in the morning/early afternoon with light south-southwesterly winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.