textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonally normal temperatures today with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

- Temperatures warm starting Monday reaching into the 50s and could eclipse the 60s Tuesday.

- Temperatures cool back toward seasonal normals mid to late week with a chance for precipitation early Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Stout northerly flow on the west side of a strong low pressure system across the upper Midwest has pushed much cooler air into the region dipping temperatures across much of the region below freezing as well as propelling wind gusts up to 20-30 MPH. Gusty winds are expected to decrease as the cold front continues its eastward progression. The cooler air sticks around through Sunday before an abrupt reversal in the temperature trend as low level flow reverts back to southwesterly advecting much warmer air across the foothills of the Rockies. An enhanced WSW to ENE low level pressure gradient across the south central Plain funnels in warmer air from the southwest CONUS into the region lifting highs Monday back above normal looking to crest 60 degrees on Tuesday.

Another push of cold air from the north moves in Tuesday night which looks to swiftly drop temperatures early Wednesday morning. Highs cascade from the 60s to the 40s. This cold front does bring an opportunity for precipitation; however, there is some uncertainty in the environment ahead of this front. Most model members diverge on the available lift as well as saturation of the mid to upper layers of the atmosphere. This is creating a diverse number of outcomes keeping overall PoPs limited at this time. Precipitation type favors mostly rain as temperature profiles ahead of the front remain above freezing. Some models keep the sub-freezing temperatures at bay until a second push of cold air which looks to arrive Wednesday afternoon. Forecast updates will likely result in fluctuations in timing, location, and progression of this system.

The KC region sits in a very interesting part of the country where the divide of warmer Gulf air and colder polar air collide. The boundary between these air masses fluctuates across the region leading to roller coaster temperature forecasts. Extended guidance suggests the polar air starting to dominate more of the upper level pattern sagging the boundary south and likely leading to more seasonally normal temperatures around 35-40 degrees. However, that boundary does look to sink to only around the I-44 corridor meaning that a small fluctuation northward could open up an opportunity for warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast, in the wake of a strong cold front the moved through earlier in the evening. Gusty northwesterly winds will diminish through the night and back to the south-southwest through the day tomorrow. A few to scattered high-level clouds may move the area tomorrow as well.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.