textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will continue through the afternoon, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

- A few sprinkles are possible (25-30%) Thursday morning along and east of I-29/I-49.

- Below normal temperatures are expected from Thursday through the weekend. The first hard freeze of the year is likely Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The upper-level pattern consists of a high amplitude ridge over the western CONUS with a trough digging into the eastern CONUS. Within the trough, several shortwaves are propagating through the flow, one of which is currently over the upper- and mid- Mississippi River Valley as of 19Z. At the surface, a low pressure system is tied to this shortwave and is centered just south of Lake Michigan. The cold front that is associated with this system passed through northern MO early this morning and has resulted in winds being out of the northwest. Despite the cold front having already passed through, diurnal mixing and clear skies have allowed temperatures to climb into the 60s this afternoon. With high pressure to the west, the pressure gradient over the CWA is fairly tight and is resulting in breezy conditions, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph. This is expected to continue through sunset this evening when mixing subsides and the low pressure system drifts far enough east to relax the pressure gradient overhead.

Another shortwave is expected to move through the pattern tonight into tomorrow, dropping another cold front towards the area. As the cold front approaches the area, low-level moisture ahead of the front will keep RH values near 100% despite an influx of mid-level dry air. While the best forcing will remain east of the area, closer to the core of the shortwave, enough lift may (25-30% chance) be present across northern MO to squeeze some sprinkles, or perhaps a bit of drizzle, out of the low-level clouds that are expected to be present tomorrow morning. The most favorable timing for this looks to be between 6 AM and 12 PM for areas along and east of I-29/I-49. As the shortwave continues to move southeast, forcing will subside and the forecast returns to a dry state tomorrow afternoon. This second cold front will also bring another shot of cooler air to the area, which will help to limit high temperatures to the upper 40s and lower 50s tomorrow.

High pressure begins to build into the Lower Missouri River Valley tomorrow afternoon, which will allow winds to become very light (less than 5 mph) and skies to clear through the overnight period. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper 20s to around 30F across northern MO by Friday morning. This will likely result in the first hard freeze of the year, however, with the growing season already behind us, no Frost/Freeze products will be issued. This will still be a situation to protect any sensitive outdoor plants despite the lack of any headlines.

The upper-level trough is expected to remain parked over the eastern CONUS through the weekend resulting in a rather consistent forecast from day to day. Highs will largely be in the upper 40s and lower 50s each day, with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s each night. This forecast is 5-10 degrees below the seasonal normals for this time of year.

The next chance for precipitation comes Sunday afternoon into Monday morning (20-30% along and south of the MO River) as a shortwave moves across the Central Plains. Model guidance has been shifting this feature further south with each run, so trends will need to be monitored over the coming forecast cycles to determine the exact placement of any precipitation.

Mid-level ridging is expected to shift over the central CONUS early next week, bringing height rises and low-level WAA to the area. This will allow temperatures to climb back towards, or sightly above, seasonal normals (mid-50s) through the first half of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 529 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the period with NNW winds around 10 kts. Additional cloud cover is anticipated to build back into the region Thursday morning...trends suggest less cloud cover and higher cloud bases overall but will continue monitoring the low potential for MVFR CIGs.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.