textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy Snow North-Central to Northeast Missouri

- Rain-Snow Mix in Central Missouri

- Rain, Non-Accumulating Snow Western Missouri to Eastern Kansas

- Colder Weather, More Wintry Precipitation Possible Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

H5 trough of interest for the next 36 hours is currently moving across the Pacific Northwest and digging toward the Rockies and Front Range, while a deep trough is moving through the Great Lakes Region. This is allowing a subtle ridge to move across the region and push a surface anticyclone eastward. Strong dCVA is occurring over the Front Range and will allow for deep enough lift for Lee Cyclogenesis as the morning progresses into the afternoon. This will gradually shift our lower tropospheric flow more southerly and allow a transport of better moisture into the region. With the warmer air pushing ahead of the developing cyclone, increasing isentropic ascent arrives in eastern Kansas by early to middle of the afternoon and from there should see an increase in lower-level clouds across the area. Around this time the ridge axis pushes eastward, starting a period of mid- level height falls and stronger vorticity advection that should provide forcing for initial rain/sprinkle activity during the afternoon. Southwest portions of the forecast area may see temperatures reach the lower to mid 40s. Areas in the northeast of our forecast area are only expected to reach the mid 30s, as the warm front stalls somewhere over Central Missouri. As the mid-level wave propagates across the Plains and the cyclone deepens, convergence increases heading into the evening hours, and so will the precipitation. Far northwest Missouri may see some snow start with the onset of precipitation depending on temperatures, while areas south and southwest should be warm enough to remain rain. Eventually the forcing spreads into our northeast where temperatures should be cool enough for snow. The main question remains across Central Missouri with in the transition zone, as temperatures will hover right around 31-34F, roughly aligning with where the warm front will stall.

A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for a our three northeasterly counties, as this area will solidly be in the sub-freezing temperatures for most of the time that forcing is present for precipitation. For this area, most of the enhanced lift and forcing is occurring in the 700-500mb layer, with the short-wave driving much of it. There will be some low-level convergence present with the approaching cyclone, but currently there is not a strong signal for any robust FGEN processes that we often typically see with stronger mid-latitdue cyclone systems. Both synoptic scale models and CAMs are showing some lower static stability in their cross-sectional analysis through the DGZ that will help to increase the dendrite size. Current 25-75th percentile spread in Putnam, Schuyler, and Adair Counties is between 4-8". Due to the lack of signal for any kind of FGEN processes as well as lift over a shallow layer, would expect it be difficult to reach the 75th percentiles. Profiles of omega indicate that lift will be fairly shallow, however, it is present through the DGZ, which is the reason why accumulating snowfall can be produced. The 00z HREF 1-hr mean snowfall indicates the onset of this snow between 06-08z. The greatest hourly snowfall rate depicted by the 00z HREF is around 0.75"/hour. This may be enough to lower visibility to less than one mile at times. However will point out this is not an overly robust snowfall rate. With plenty of moisture and stronger warm conveyor belt with this system, snow to liquid ratios will be on the lower side, perhaps as low as 8:1. This will also help to limit snowfall, as well as limit blowing even as winds increase above 20 MPH. The system should exit late Saturday Night. For a full view of snowfall probabilities, visit weather.gov/eax/winter. As of 10z, the probability exceedance of 4 inches and 6 inches was roughly used as the outline for the winter weather issuance on this shift.

For areas in Central Missouri along the transition zone and in the Winter Weather Advisory will be right along a tight wet-bulb temperature gradient. There is still quite a bit of lift through the DGZ, but within the lowest 1km of the boundary layer, temperatures look like they will be fairly warm for a longer duration of when forcing is available for precipitation. Thus, a mixture of rain-snow before a transition to over to all snow will be key in the final snowfall accumulations. A tight gradient is expected in this area. Even the deterministic models that have insanely high snowfall amounts from southeast Iowa to Central Illinois also depict this tight gradient. The 00z HREF has a realistic picture of this, going from 2" of snowfall to rain only in a span of only 15-20 miles. It's a pretty steep drop off as you move southwest away from the heaviest snow axis. The 00z HREF did try to produce some light freezing rain within this transition zone in central Missouri. This could be possible on some elevated surfaces, but overall pavement temperatures should remain warm enough to prevent travel impacts. The NBM probabilities seemed a bit too high, therefore official forecast has lowered those thus removing the NBM's ice accumulations. At this time, no expected ice accumulations in central Missouri within the transition zone. For the western portions of the forecast area including Kansas City Area, most of Friday will see rainfall. If there is enough wrap around moisture of the exiting cyclone by Saturday Night, a rain-snow mix is possible. However, during the timing of available forcing for precipitation, surface temperatures are not much lower than 35F, and could be above 40F. Therefore, it will be tough to accumulate. Lift through the DGZ will be the main component producing any kind of snow.

The system exits by mid-day Sunday into the Great Lakes Region, but another trough moves across the western third of the CONUS. For Sunday afternoon, this forces a weak mid-level ridge and surface anticyclone that brings in an polar airmass into the central CONUS. This will keep high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s with overnight lows in the teens. That next trough could bring more wintry precipitation to the area on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 528 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

High level clouds will be present through most of the day. Winds will slowly shift toward the south as the high exits. Lower level cloud cover increases late this afternoon and evening. Rain showers develop late and continue through most of Saturday. A period of IFR conditions is expected at STJ and KC metro terminals with rainfall. Wintry precipitation is forecast over Central Missouri with IFR conditions, with heavy snow expected for portions of north-central and northeast Missouri.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night for MOZ003-005-006-015-016-024-025-033. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to midnight CST Saturday night for MOZ007-008-017. KS...None.