textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will move northwest to southeast through the region late morning through the afternoon and evening hours.

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are likely (50 to 80%) late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected (90 to 100%) Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Strong to severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.

- Another round of showers and storms are likely (60 to 90%) Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Strong to severe storms will be possible once again.

- Total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches is likely across the region between tonight and Saturday, with isolated higher amounts possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the mid/upper trough across Saskatchewan/Manitoba and extending southward into the Dakotas, with WSW flow aloft over Missouri and Kansas. At the lower levels, an east/west oriented surface boundary is in place across northwestern Iowa and into Nebraska, with a dryline extending southward from the surface low over central Nebraska. A 45+ knot southwesterly low level jet has developed this morning from the TX Panhandle into NW Missouri, which has initiated a few showers across the region, and is helping keep SSW surface winds sustained around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. The aforementioned mid/upper trough near the US/Canada border continues to move eastward throughout the day today toward the Great Lakes, helping push the currently stalled boundary to our north into and through the CWA from northwest to southeast. Most recent hi res guidance brings the front into far NW Missouri by around 10 am today, through the KC metro by around 2-4 pm, before stalling out somewhere in the vicinity of a St. Louis to Fort Scott line by late tonight. High temperatures this afternoon will be highly dependent on the speed of the front, but most locations in the CWA should heat up into the upper 70s to lower 80s prior to FROPA.

With convective inhibition in place and a lack of upper level support, it is unlikely that showers and storms would initiate along and ahead of the frontal passage. However, by later tonight as better forcing arrives, would expect elevated showers and thunderstorms north of the boundary to develop and continue into early Wednesday morning. With up to 1500 J/kg of MU CAPE and 40+ knots of deep layer shear, cannot rule out some storms capable of producing marginally severe hail.

By Wednesday afternoon, another mid/upper trough is projected to come across the Southern Rockies and into the south central Plains, ejecting to the northeast across the central CONUS Thursday morning/afternoon. At the surface, the low should deepen as it moves ENE across Kansas, with a 996 mb low projected to be centered somewhere over far NE Kansas by early Thursday morning, with the warm front extending to the east through southern Iowa and a trailing cold front through eastern Kansas. Increased forcing for ascent from the approaching trough and surface low along with the stalled east/west oriented boundary over the region and continued moisture advection into the region increasing PWATs into the 1.5"+ range will likely generate periods of showers and thunderstorms across the CWA from later Wednesday morning into Thursday morning, with 90 to 100% PoPs CWA wide from 1 PM Wednesday through 1 PM Thursday. With the warm front lifting northward through the CWA on Wednesday afternoon and evening, this will allow for veering winds within the warm frontal zone, supporting effective SRH values on the order of 200 to 300 m2/s2 and with surface based LCLs near or below 1 km, this may promote supercells capable of producing tornadoes and large hail. This has prompted SPC upgrading portions of our CWA, including the KC metro, into a slight risk, with a 5% CIG1 tornado threat and 15% CIG1 hail threat. However, and SPC does indeed note this as well, with weak capping and strong forcing, thunderstorm clustering and upscale growth could limit this threat. In addition to the severe threat, relatively high PWATs along with the threat for training storms will present a locally heavy rainfall threat, and WPC has upgraded much of the CWA to a slight risk for excessive rainfall accordingly. The ECWMF EFI and SOT suggests the potential for an unusual rainfall event Wednesday evening into Thursday morning for areas along and northwest of a Kansas City to Unionville MO line. Showers/storms should come to an end from west to east on Thursday afternoon as the mid/upper trough axis exits the region to the east.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 241 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Following this, models continue to suggest a deep, closed mid/upper low and accompanying trough entering the central Plains on Friday afternoon, ejecting to the east northeast into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley by late Friday night. Meanwhile, a surface low should slide from western Kansas into central Iowa Friday into early Saturday morning, with a trailing cold front extending south southwestward from the surface low moving west to east through the region overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. This would bring high chances (60 to 90%) for yet another round of showers and thunderstorms for Friday afternoon into Saturday, exiting the region from west to east by Saturday afternoon. Guidance suggests most of the CWA should be within the warm sector on Friday afternoon, with the surface low INVOF SE Nebraska by 4 pm Friday. With 40 to 50 knots of WSW flow at 500 mb overspreading the region on Friday afternoon/evening along with moderate to high instability and steep mid level lapse rates, there will be a threat for strong to severe storms capable of all hazards. As such, SPC has outlooked almost all of the CWA within a 15% severe risk area for Friday afternoon/evening/night. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible. Dry weather should finally return by Sunday, with highs in the mid to upper 50s.

With the threat for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into Saturday, current forecast rainfall totals range from 2" to 4", with locally higher amounts possible. Most recent NBM guidance gives MCI a 95%, 59%, and 21% probability for rainfall to exceed 1", 2", and 3" respectively. Flooding will be possible on some of the faster responding creeks, streams, and rivers.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A few showers and storms have developed east of the terminals this morning, but the terminals are expected to remain dry until later tonight. A cold front will approach the terminals from the northwest by later this morning, with winds becoming west southwesterly ahead of the front, and then turning northwesterly to northerly and finally northeasterly behind the front this afternoon into tonight. Southwesterly winds should continue to gust up to 30 knots before the frontal passage, with gusts up to 20 knots or so in the few hours behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop by around 3z to 4z tonight, with intermittent impacts to the terminals through roughly 9z Wednesday morning. MVFR CIGs may develop toward the end of the TAF period Wednesday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.