textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for light rain or drizzle Wednesday late evening and overnight into Thursday with potential of wintry mix in far northeastern portions of the CWA.

- Well-above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Friday will be warmer with highs in the 70s.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions possible on Friday. RH values may fall into the 20-30% range with winds potentially gusting 20-30 mph.

- Wintry precipitation possible Sunday through Tuesday. This includes a 20-35% chance for at least 0.01" of freezing rain, and a 40-70% chance for at least 0.5" of snow, with the latest suite of ensemble guidance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Late this evening, a shortwave trough will propagate eastward through Missouri. Ample mid-level moisture, vorticity, and div-Q across the area will allow for chances of light rain to build in from the north and west later tonight into the very early morning hours on Thursday. In the northeastern portion of the CWA, temperatures may fall around freezing, leading to potential for a wintry mix in these areas. Outside of the northeastern corner of the CWA, however, only light rain is expected. Precipitation accumulations are expected to be less than 0.1" across the entire CWA.

Above normal temperatures are expected to stick around around through Saturday. Friday looks to bring enhanced fire weather concerns with widespread dry conditions (20-30%) and winds gusting up to 25-30 mph. Latest HDWI probabilities continue to indicate that upwards of 80% GEFS members are predicting conditions exceeding the 90th percentile. Fire weather concerns will remain limited to Friday as moisture is drawn into the region alongside a cold front on Saturday morning. Uncertainty regarding the timing of this frontal passage remains, however. Consequently, considerable uncertainty also remains with Saturday's high temperature. Current thinking is that the front will begin to dive south sometime in the afternoon. If this is the case, high temperatures would be mostly unaffected by the frontal passage (would be looking in the range of low to mid-60s for the KC metro), but shifts in the timing could easily lead to a +/- 10F difference in Saturday's high temperature. For now, the northern portions of the CWA are expecting high temperatures in the low to mid 50s and areas further south will see high temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

There is potential for wintry precipitation Sunday morning into early Monday morning. A low-level jet is expected to develop and strengthen after midnight on Sunday, leading to a widespread area of low-level WAA over the CWA. This warm, moist air aloft will overrun the cooler surface left from the previous day's surface cold frontal passage and ongoing northeast surface flow. With this setup, a wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain looks to be very possible throughout the day on Sunday and into the overnight hours. Current probabilities for at least 0.01" of freezing rain sit around 25% with localized areas of slightly higher probabilities, particularly around the I-70 corridor. Probabilities for at least 0.5" of snow are a bit higher around 40% near US-50 and up to nearly 70% in the far northeastern area of the CWA. Needless to say, there is still a substantial amount of uncertainty regarding Sunday's forecast. Following a brief intermission Monday morning, precipitation chances return Monday afternoon and overnight into Tuesday. Not too dissimilar from Sunday, models disagree regarding precipitation types and amounts so this timeframe will need to be monitored closely. Although there is a lack of forecast confidence relating to precipitation types on Sunday and again on Monday with rain/snow/freezing rain potential, the signal for precipitation occurring remains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Light rain will move into the area late this evening, most likely between 02Z-07Z, affecting the terminals 03Z and 07Z. Conditions will likely remain VFR with the passage with this rainfall. Skies clear tomorrow morning with light winds expected through the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.