textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs near the upper 40s today, but you needed to be up at 12:01 AM to experience it. Much of the rest of the day will be in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

- Gusty winds expected through the daytime hours. Gusts around 25 MPH to as high as 35 MPH anticipated.

- Colder through the end of the week with another chance for light precipitation (mainly across central and NE MO) Thursday into Friday with chance possible continuing into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Near 50s degrees again today although the only way you would have experienced it is being outside at midnight. Temperatures continue to fall as cold air from the north continues to envelope the region. This is part of a large upper level trough that is descending into the region. Within this large scale trough are two embedded waves, the first moved through the area starting yesterday evening bringing with it gusty winds and rain showers. The second wave lags behind the first enough that exiting the house this morning may not feel all that bad with temperatures at 6 AM expected be be around 40 degrees. However, cold air continue to push into the area which will be felt as winds accelerate through the morning. Gusts of 25-35 MPH are possible. While conditions will be blustery, wind chills are expected to remain in the upper 20s through the day.

Temperatures are able to rebound slightly thanks in part to solar heating. The air behind the first front is significantly drier which has helped clear skies out (and facilitate the downward mixing of winds). However, temperatures are only expected to rebound back into the high 30s this afternoon. The second push of cold air comes in late this afternoon and evening. This will cascade temperatures downward overnight tonight to around 15 degrees, an almost 42 degree drop from the 57F high recorded at MCI on Tuesday.

A quick ridge behind this double fisted push of cold air turns winds back southerly for a day and boosts temperatures back north of 40 degrees for most on Thursday. The pattern looks to shift Thursday night into the weekend. Forecast guidance has been proposing another strong wave moving through the northern CONUS that looks to bring us some weather activity starting overnight Thursday into Friday possibly continuing into Saturday.

There continues to be much uncertainty with this system as the macroscale setup of the atmosphere plays a significant role in the evolution of the weather patter. An expansive polar low sits over northern Quebec along with a loosely organized Rex block over the Cascades to Hawaiian Islands. This is more or less funneling systems through a globally narrow path across the Canadian Rockies to the Great Lakes. Shortwaves have been more or less taking this route for the past several days and it looks likely to continue. The wave that most model project to roll through this weekend is not anticipated to develop until this afternoon somewhere near the Yukon Territory. Model guidance has been resolving these waves different; sometimes in very unique interpretations that can range anywhere from underwhelming to over- zealous. Deterministic guidance, particularly the GFS, intensifies this shortwave digging it across the northern CONUS resulting in a more widespread system. Ensemble guidance is a bit more nuanced keeping much of the precipitation well away from our area. Overall consensus of models does maintain the bulk of the precipitable activity remaining north and east of the region; however, it does place western MO and eastern KS in an axis of substantial, swift, cold air flow. This drops highs Friday into Saturday by nearly 15 degrees. It is difficult to completely rule out precipitation chances with that significant of a temperature drop; however uncertainty remains high yielding minimal PoP outlooks at this juncture. This uncertainty is primarily linked to the strength of the cold front as well how dry the air might be around this front. If the air is drier, precipitation will likely remain toward the north and east. Should the air be more saturated further west, there is a chance for snow showers extending all the way west to the MO/KS border. Snow spreads across the ensembles are not keen on snow totals leaving most between zero and a dusting with the most optimistic being a couple tenths of an inch. Confidence is much higher in another push of Arctic air and another day of blustery winds. As the wave pieces itself together tomorrow afternoon and Thursday, it will become more clear what to expect.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Generally VFR conditions expected for the duration of the forecast period. A small band of low clouds bringing temporary MVFR CIGs is exiting the terminals; some SCT MVFR CIGs remain, but those will likely dissipate through the morning.

Gusty northerly winds continue through the day. Gusts persist around 25-30 knots with some intermittent higher gusts possible. Wind gust look to dissipate after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.