textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow Ending This Evening

- Very Cold Sunday

- Warm Up This Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Strong mid and upper-level northwesterly flow continues across the entire central CONUS, pushing a strong surface anticyclone and its Arctic airmass toward the lower Missouri River Valley. A cold frontal boundary has pushed southward toward Interstate 44 corridor as of a 20z objective analysis. There is another boundary moving south from Iowa that is more notable for its moisture gradient than temperature gradient, with dewpoints quickly dropping into the single digits behind this. This will eventually push through the entire forecast area. A few areas of FGEN are still promoting some snow activity across northern and central Missouri as of 20z. This should eventually be coming to an end between 22z-23z this afternoon/evening as that dry air filters in. For much of the morning we were monitoring the 1km-2km AGL that was saturated with supercooled drops. For most of the morning and afternoon, dewpoint depressions were nearly 10F, which helped to combat freezing drizzle potential. There is still an outside chance to see patchy icing. However, the last two hours, ACARS soundings out of MCI have shown that the 1km-3km AGL has cooled to around -10C to -12C, which would imply better potential for dendrites, not supercooled drops, meaning more snow flurry or light snow shower activity rather than freezing drizzle. The AWOS at Cameron along with MoDOT traffic cameras at Interstate 35 and Highway 36 showed more dendrite/flake activity then any kind of liquid drops. As this area of weak radar returns moved southward, conditions were either dry as the boundary layer remained moisture deprived, or anything spotted was coming down as snow. This little band moving southward though is outpacing the upper-level support for lift, and may not last much longer as we head into the evening. Therefore, freezing drizzle probabilities are continuing to drop for western MO and eastern KS. Strong surface anticyclone overnight centers in the eastern Plains, and overall strong northerly flow promotes robust CAA and pushes in the Arctic Airmass. For our northeast counties, the forecast is still on track for air temperatures to drop a few degrees below zero, with northerly winds between 5 to 10 kts dropping wind chill values between 12F to 19F below zero. The Cold Weather Advisory will remain in place for our northeast counties through late Sunday morning. Elsewhere, overnight lows will be in the single digits across most of the forecast area with wind chills just a tad below zero. For the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area, highs are forecast to only reach the lower 20s.

Monday, surface anticyclone gets pushed into the Gulf Region and will start to provide low-level southerly flow into the lower Missouri River Valley. A short-wave trough propagating out of the southwestern CONUS will provide dCVA into the high southern Plains and attempt surface cyclogenesis, providing reinforcement to the lower-level southerly flow. For Monday, this may boost temperatures back into the lower 40s, with upper 30s in our northeastern counties. While a weak H5 short-wave may move through, the bulk of the forcing misses for any kind of precipitation stays away from the forecast area, with continued WAA. There is growing model consensus that temperatures will reach back into the upper 40s and lower 50s by the middle of the week. A few deterministic solutions tries to paint lower 60s. Value this high are currently outliers amongst multiple ensemble members. Box and whiskers plots of high temperatures using NBM membership does show wider inner-quartile spread. This is largely attributed to the timing of the short-wave propagation and how quickly a warm front may surge into the area. But Wednesday into Thursday, probabilities of exceeding 50F for most of the area is around 60 percent, and higher for southwestern portions of the area. Next chance for rain appears to be Thursday when another trough from Canada drops southward. Thursday is also when multiple ensemble suites being to show increased probabilities for detectable precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Flurries and light snow are quickly coming to an end across the area early this evening. Lingering MVFR will quickly scatter out through 02z, with VFR anticipated thereafter. North winds of 10 to 15 kt will slowly diminish through the overnight hours, becoming light and variable Sunday morning. A steadier south or southeast wind of 5 to 10 kt is expected to develop Sunday afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MOZ006>008-016- 017-025. KS...None.