textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions today with gusts around 25-35 MPH anticipated. Gusts increase overnight and tomorrow morning to 35-45 with some isolated 50+ MPH possible as a front moves through. There are some uncertainties about wind gusts depending on if the push of colder air is able to fully reach the surface.

- Above normal temperatures today dip back to seasonal normals Wednesday and Thursday before turning colder with below freezing highs anticipated this weekend.

- Small chances for rain/snow tonight and later in the week for far NE MO as waves pass to the north. Accumulations are expected to be minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wind is going to be the theme of today and tomorrow as a compressed pressure gradient combined with enhanced midlevel flow and anticipated diurnal mixing accelerates southwesterly winds with expected gusts of 25-35 MPH across the region. As of early this afternoon, wind gusts have not manifested as anticipated likely due to greater than anticipated cloud cover across northern MO. This has inhibited solar mixing preventing the additional momentum transfer to get gusts going. Eventually, the pressure gradient force and turbulent mixing will create gusty conditions, the magnitude may not be a substantial as initially anticipated. Regardless, the sustained southwesterly flow around 15-20 MPH has pushed warm, southern CONUS air into the region lifting temperatures into the 50s for most sans far NE MO who will still see temperatures in the high 40s.

Unfortunately, the warm looks to be short lived as a wave progressing its way across the Upper Midwest drops a cold front across the region which moves through the area overnight into early Wednesday morning. An even tighter pressure gradient resides behind this cold front which abrupt turns winds northwesterly funneling colder air into the region. Turbulent mixing combined with the nocturnal inversion could enhance this pressure gradient, especially vertically, and accelerate gusts to 35-45 MPH even approaching 50 MPH across far northern MO. Some uncertainties in the forecast continue as ensemble guidance remains divergent on gust probabilities. The NBM is fairly pessimistic only keeping far NE MO with chances of advisory level winds. Meanwhile the HREF (which ensembles several CAM models) brings 80-90% chances of advisory level winds nearly to the MO River. Confidence currently lies somewhere in between. The dynamic nature of the cold air push combined with the multiple model forecasts of a stacked jet streak moving through the region do lean more towards the HREF solution. This could facilitate momentum transfer downward from 650mb-700mb to the surface. Therefore, a Wind Advisory has been issued for areas where 45+ MPH gusts are most likely. Isolated gusts in excess of 45 MPH are possible elsewhere throughout the night. As the jet streak transits the region through the morning, winds gradually decelerate back to more nominal levels by midday Wednesday. Usually with such a strong kinematic gradient, one would think precipitation would be present; however, much of the antecedent air mass ahead of the front is dry and stable. There is a growing signal from the CAMs across far NE MO that could squeeze out some sprinkles/flurries ahead of the front overnight, but precipitation expectations remain minimal.

Cold air streams in behind the front Wednesday with highs expected to be about 10 degrees colder than today. Portions of far NE MO may only barely make it above freezing. Cold air continues to stream in through the end of the week as a cold Canadian high pressure system works its way southward. High temperatures descend into the 30s Friday before reaching the upper 20s by Sunday. The pattern does look to slowly shift by early next week as flow is anticipated to return southerly opening warm air advection back up to the region.

The precipitation outlook for the period remains rather minimal. Northeast MO could see some light precipitation tonight as well as passing snow flurries Thursday afternoon, but more likely Saturday as multiple midlevel waves pass to the north of the region. NBM probabilities of accumulating snow range from 10-20 percent to 20-40 percent respectively. Extended guidance does show the potential for the atmosphere to get a little more active next week; however, a general northward shift of the polar jet northward does put the region more in the warm sector which 1) leads to chances for above normal temperatures next week and 2) would lean prevailing precipitation type being rain sans post cold frontal activity where snow is possible. Guidance does not go out far enough to confidently forecast chances for a white Christmas, but a prognosis of increased activity does pose the potential for one.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Winds continue to be the main focus with this TAF issuance. The LLWS chances appear lower with the latest guidance, so the main focus is on wind gusts and wind shift timing as the front approaches/passes through the sites. Still not completely out of the question for a brief period of LLWS, but gusts are most likely. Strongest gusts closer to or exceeding 30-35kts expected with cold air advection after the front passes and winds shift to the NW. Kept conditions VFR with a possible scattered 3500ft cloud deck near the front, but should be brief.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-032-033. KS...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for KSZ102.