textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers continue through the afternoon hours.

- Colder and breezy this evening and into tonight.

- Near normal temperatures and generally dry conditions are expected tomorrow through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Current H5 and water vapor analysis shows the center of the mid/upper low over SE Nebraska, moving to the northeast. Meanwhile, the surface cyclone is currently centered over southern Iowa, with the attendant cold front draped north to south across Missouri. Showers continue across portions of the CWA, primarily toward Mid-Missouri and across NW Missouri into eastern Kansas. Instability remains quite paltry, which has limited thunderstorm development, and the most recent SPC convective outlook has removed almost all of the CWA from the marginal risk (except for NE Missouri). Winds will eventually turn west northwesterly as the surface low continues to move to the northeast, with gusts up to 25 mph through the evening and tonight. Patchy drizzle will be possible tonight with lingering low level saturation and subtle forcing for ascent. Colder air will filter into the region overnight, with morning lows falling into the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Cloud cover should linger into tomorrow, with skies finally beginning to clear from southwest to northeast by tomorrow afternoon (although quite a bit of cloud cover should remain across northern and NE Missouri), with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and breezy westerly winds.

Near normal temperatures are likely to continue through the end of the work week, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s and overnight lows around 40 degrees. Skies should finally become clear CWA wide by Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon, but another trough is progged to move across the central US Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, which will bring increased cloud cover and slight chance PoPs (20%). High pressure is anticipated to build overhead Friday into Friday night, which will help lower temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning into the mid to upper 30s for many locations, with some patchy frost possible. A warming trend is likely this weekend into early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to upper 60s by Monday with dry conditions likely persisting.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to linger behind a cold front building east across the region. Gusty northwest winds immediately behind the front will gradually drop off, with a slight increase tomorrow during the day from mixing. MVFR ceilings are expected to improve after 18Z Wednesday as clouds begin to scatter out and lift towards 3-4K feet agl.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.