textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions continue through this evening.

- Above normal temperatures return tomorrow.

- Record high temperatures likely on Monday with breezy SSW winds.

- Cold front moves through the region on Tuesday, bringing relatively high chances (50 to 80%) for showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather threat is low.

- Cooler temperatures and continued chances for rain (40 to 70%) for Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The main concern this afternoon/evening is the high fire danger. Highs will be near seasonal normals in the mid 50s to lower 60s. However, surface high pressure over the area this morning, which is now shifting east into the Ohio River Valley this afternoon has left dry conditions in place. Dewpoints over the area will be in the teens to lower 20s yielding relative humidity values in the 15-25% range this afternoon/evening. The dry conditions coupled with WAA increasing wind gusts to 20-30 mph this afternoon is leading to high fire danger. WAA will continue tonight and increase into tomorrow in response to a surface low developing over the western High Plains. This, in concert with zonal flow aloft will drive highs into the low to mid 70s. Strong southerly winds gusting 25 to 35 mph will again cause elevated fire weather concerns however, at this time relative humidity values look to remain above critical thresholds. Strong WAA will continue Monday as a upper level trough digs from the Canadian Rockies into the northern High Plains. This will force an attendant cold front into the Plains States. This will allow temperatures to record breaking levels with highs in the mid to upper 80s (Kansas City record high is 82 set in 1986).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Monday night into Tuesday...the aforementioned upper level trough will dig through the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force a cold front through the area during the day Tuesday making the temperature forecast challenging. Based on the current forecast timing of the frontal passage, highs Tuesday will range from the upper 60s across northwest MO to the upper 70/lower 80s across the south CWA. This front will also bring the next chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area on Tuesday. The greatest for showers and storms will occur in the afternoon in the evening when PoPs will be in the 50- 80% range. The severe threat looks low at this time with the better potential appearing northeast of the area where the better upper level forcing and shear resides. Precipitation associated with this system should shift south and east of the area by Wednesday morning. However, the pattern looks to stay active for the second half of the work week as a series of shortwave will bring additional storm chances. Model solutions being out of phase as to when these shortwaves will affect the local area have produced PoPs in every period from Wednesday through next Saturday however the Thursday night/Friday timeframe looks to be mainly dry based on the latest mid-range model guidance. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be slightly below normal with highs in the 50s. A warm front is expected to lift into the area Friday driving highs into the lower 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 612 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across all TAF sites through the period. Winds generally remain up overnight as PG increases/tightens into the overnight, around 10-12kts with occasional gusts into the teens kts. Winds increase further Sunday was daytime mixing increases, pushing sustained into the teens kts and gusts into the mid-upper 20s kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30: KMCI: 82/1986 KSTJ: 86/1968

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>024-028>031-037-038-043. KS...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105.