textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm temperatures tomorrow, with increasing chances (60-80%) for showers/storms by tomorrow evening. Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, hail up to quarters, and damaging winds.

- Temperatures cool significantly by the end of the week, before rising again by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Windy conditions continue across the area today, with a surface low over eastern South Dakota and a surface high off the Gulf Coast enhancing the pressure gradient over much of the central CONUS. Gusts are expected to cap out around 35-40 mph under a well-mixed boundary layer through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Temperature-wise, it is very hot (for October), with daytime highs hovering around the high 80s/low 90s under strong, sustained WAA at the lowest levels of the atmosphere. As the surface low continues progressing off towards the northeast, a cold front (presently over southeastern NE) is projected to sag down across northwest MO/northeast KS through the overnight. Along the boundary, ongoing moist advection could contribute to isolated/scattered showers, especially across northwest MO. However, these probabilities remain on the lower end (~10-15%). Global guidance has progressively shifted its solution for the cold front southward, aligning better with short term guidance and increasing confidence in a cooler temperature forecast for portions of northwest MO/northeast KS. Highs in the high 70s/low 80s will be a stark contrast to the high 80s/low 90s south of the US-36 corridor, where the temperature forecast will once again approach daily records and heat indices look to hover around the triple digits. South of the boundary, sustained south/southwesterly winds will transport warm, moist air across much of the forecast area, with dewpoints rising into the low 70s. This will contribute to a corridor of moderately unstable air (MUCAPE as high as 2500 J/kg) developing during the daytime. By the afternoon, there is a low (15-30%) for showers/storms to develop as the cap gradually erodes. However, the greatest chances (60-80%) reside during the evening, when a strengthening LLJ and shortwave trough to the west invigorates synoptic-scale ascent. Effective bulk shear remains strong around 40-50 kts during this time period, which favors the development of strong/severe storms. However, mid-level lapse rates remain marginal at around 6.5 degC/km. The most favorable corridor for severe development will be for areas along/south of the boundary, with threats for damaging wind and hail up to quarters in the strongest storms. The severe threat will diminish through the night as capping returns, but residual elevated MUCAPE could maintain strong/severe storms through the overnight period. Also of note is enhanced PWATs with the environment, increasing the risk of minor localized flooding if storms train over the same locations.

Convective activity will help to push the boundary further south on Wednesday, but guidance continues to deviate on exactly how far south the boundary will sag. Recent CAMs indicate varied solutions on the continuation of shower/storm activity during the morning/early afternoon on Wednesday. Depending on the longevity of this activity, how far south the boundary progresses during the day, and the presence of cloud debris inhibiting daytime heating, a continued risk for strong thunderstorms exists on Wednesday. However, with recent CAM guidance keeping the most favorable corridor for development further south over the Ozark Plateau, the risk for continued severe across the area is limited.

PoPs continue through at least Thursday before an upper-level trough situated over the Western CONUS lifts towards the Great Lakes and synoptic high pressure builds in behind it. A strong cold front will drape down across the forecast area by the end of the week, significantly lowering temperatures in its wake and keeping us much cooler and drier going into the weekend compared to the previous few days. Guidance continues to indicate the potential of reaching lows in the 30s by Friday evening/Saturday morning, increasing confidence in seeing our first frost/freeze across the area. Through the remainder of the weekend, guidance generally agrees on the gradual progression of an upper-level ridge eastward over the central CONUS, with surface high pressure sliding off towards the OH Valley and shifting winds out of the south. With this shift of winds towards the south, the forecast will warm slightly by the end of the forecast period, with temperatures in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions generally expected to prevail across the sites through the period, with some items of note toward the end of the current period. In the near-term, wind gusts out of the SSW/SW will periodically continue before fully subsiding closer to 06z. KSTJ will see winds go variable and light out of the N/NW, while remaining sites 'should' remain on the warm side of the front with expectations to hang up between Highway 36 and the metro area. KMCI may see the boundary get there, but will continue to monitor the frontal progression. Cold front retreats northward as a warm front during daytime, with blossoming CU expected in and around the 2 to 3kft range. Possible some BKN periods, but should be primarily SCT. Best chances for any SHRA/TSRA activity before the end of the period appears to be around KSTJ, but may be possible at all sites. But given current low confidence and being the last couple hrs of the period, have withheld mentions at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.