textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather with typical July heat and humidity levels are expected today through early next week.

- Temperatures will heat up by the middle of next week, with a 30-70% chance of high temperatures exceeding 95F Thursday through Saturday.

- Low-end rain chances (15-25%) return to the forecast Wednesday for areas south of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Broad mid-level ridging is present across the western and central CONUS, with a 500-hPA trough stretching from the lower Great Lakes through the southern Great Plains. This is the trough that has been responsible for the active weather across the area over the past couple of days. As it exits to the southeast, the area will see clearing skies and dry, summer-like weather with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s and heat indices in the low 90s this afternoon. A few lingering clouds associated with the shortwave east of Highway 65 may taper highs in that area, but skies should continue to clear through the afternoon.

By Sunday, the ridge will slide east and be centered over the Northern Plains, with an omega block setting up to keep this pattern in place through the majority of the next week. Temperatures will hold in the mid-to-upper 80s on Sunday before gradually climbing through the week as the ridging drifts further south. The shortwave will have broken down over the southern MS River Valley by Wednesday, allowing some moisture to return to the area. This will create a setup for potential garden-variety, summertime afternoon convection. Showers and storms would be isolated to scattered in nature, with the maximum 15-25% chances confined to areas south of I-70.

On the heat side, both NBM and LREF guidance depict a 30-45% chance of high temperatures exceeding 95F on Thursday and a 50-70% chance on Friday and Saturday. On the bright side, dew points should be capped in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which will help keep heat indices from being too much higher than the actual temperature. As of this forecast cycle, heat indices are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 90s by Thursday afternoon and pushing 100F on Friday and Saturday.

Long range model and ensemble guidance are in pretty good agreement that the ridge will begin to shift to the west by next weekend. However, disagreements in potential shortwaves moving through the flow are resulting in uncertainty regarding precipitation chances through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period at all four terminals. Some spotty cumulus may develop this afternoon, but no impacts are expected. Winds will remain light out of the northeast through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.