textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of morning fog expected across west central Missouri through mid-morning.

- Showers/Storms possible again (40-60%) over central/eastern MO on Saturday afternoon...no severe weather expected.

- Unsettle pattern returns to the Tuesday through Thursday with periods of showers and storms expected. No severe weather or flooding is expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 159 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Early this morning, a surface front is extending from northwest Missouri through eastern Kansas. A few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are persisting along this front in an area of weak convergence. In addition, fog has developed out ahead of the front in a moist environment where the skies have cleared and winds have become light. Expect fog to persist through mid-morning. Showers will diminish through the morning hours but will again develop along the front this afternoon across the southern and eastern CWA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in an area of modest instability of 1000J/Kg of MUCAPE however shear will be weak and convergence along the front will be weak as well. As such, no severe weather is expected. High temperatures are expected to return to near seasonable conditions with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. This evening/tonight a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area from the northwest bringing precipitation to an end. This surface ridge will, remain over the area until late in the day Sunday when modest WAA will get underway in its wake. This coupled with mid-level ridging building over the area will allow highs to rise into the lower 80s. The area will continue to remain under he influence of the surface ridge, on Monday, which will extend from the southern Great Lakes back into the local area. this will continue to keep conditions dry while continued height rises will drive highs into the mid 80s to close out the holiday weekend.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 159 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Tuesday, will begin a unsettled period for the local area. This will come courtesy of a mid-level low lifting north towards the area from the southern Plains. This will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Tuesday. This mid-level low will reside over the region through Thursday bringing rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area. Heavy precipitation is not expected so the flooding potential looks to be low at this time. High temperatures will hold in the low to mid 80s through the middle of the work week. Friday, the mid-level low will become an open wave that will shift eastward in response to a upper level trough moving from the Great Basin into the eastern Rockies. This will push a much stronger cold front into the area late Friday into Friday night. This system may provider the next opportunity for severe weather and will need to be monitored as we move into next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across the sites. Light NW winds prevail through the daytime hours, going light and variable to calm overnight and into Sunday. A FEW/SCT040 or so clouds this afternoon with BKN/OVC200+ overtop today, eventually clearing overnight. Some FG possible, but best chances look to be just to the S/SE of the KC metro area.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.