textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly warmer today with isolated flurries and sprinkles possible.

- Colder tonight with lows in the teens and single digits.

- Fairly benign pattern for much of the week with temperatures near normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 708 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Have updated the forecast to increase wind speeds and especially gusts behind a strong cold front that will begin to move into NW MO in the next 1-2 hours. Also noting some radar returns and snow showers showing up in Nebraska and Iowa so have added some scattered flurries as well. Will monitor trends to see if PoPs need to be increased further. This seems to be being forced by a subtle lowering in the PV1.5 pressure levels with some enhancement noted on mid-level water vapor imagery and an expanding area of cooling cloud tops.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Broad low pressure was located over Minnesota and stretched over Lake Superior into Upper Michigan. A cold front stretched southwestward from south-central Minnesota into southern South Dakota, northeastern Wyoming and into Montana, while a warm front extended southward into central Iowa and Missouri. Southerly winds behind this warm front were spreading warmer air into the region with temperatures reaching into the 30s and lower 40s. Winds were turning northwesterly ahead of the cold front in association with a pre-frontal trough. Winds were gusting to 20 to 30 mph behind this trough. Some lower ceilings were also in this area with some showers/flurries falling under this deck. Behind the actual cold front, much colder air was in place across the Dakotas.

The cold front will push through the region tonight with an Arctic air mass spreading in behind. This will lead to lows falling into the teens and single digits above zero tonight with wind chills falling into the single digits and teens below zero. The coldest temperatures will be across northeastern Missouri where a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for tonight into Monday morning. Winds will diminish as the day progresses Monday as surface high pressure works through.

Northwesterly flow will prevail across the central CONUS through much of the week. Weak cyclogenesis will occur Tuesday into Wednesday with low pressure moving from eastern Colorado to Illinois. Some surface vorticity will pass overhead in association with this system. Most of the QPF looks to remain north of the area across Nebraska and Iowa. A few flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled out, but have kept a dry forecast at this time. Temperatures will warm back to near normal levels by Tuesday after highs Monday in the teens and 20s. High pressure will keep fairly benign weather conditions in place for the remainder of the week with highs remaining in the 30s and 40s. Precip chances look to return for the weekend with a system passing to our south. However, if the high to our north is stronger or a bit further south that currently expected, that may keep any precipitation to our south. Temperatures look to cool back below normal for the weekend, so anything that does fall will most likely be in the form of snow. Considerable spread remains in this time period keeping confidence lower.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. The one time frame with a chance for MVFR conditions is tonight in the wake of another strong cold front that will move through the area. Winds will increase markedly behind that front with gusts of 25-30kts likely from the northwest to north. Can't quite rule out a brief snow shower behind the front as the colder air spills into the region. Upstream observations in the Dakotas show isolated to scattered snow showers. At this point, it seems rather unlikely. Another strong snow shower was noted in central IA that will track away from the area. During the day tomorrow, winds begin to decrease with skies trending to clear.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM CST Monday for MOZ007- 008-017. KS...None.