textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler and drier conditions are expected across the region tonight into Sunday.

* Weakening showers may try to build into eastern KS Sunday afternoon leading increasing clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or two.

* Spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread east Sunday night into Monday morning. This activity is not expected to be severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Broad 1025 mb surface high pressure has built south from Canada and is currently centered across the central Dakotas with dew points in the 40s and 50s to the northwest. Drier air will filter into the region this afternoon with high temperatures in the mid 80s.

Surface ridge is expected to shift east tonight leading to good radiative conditions. Have forecast lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. With the good radiative conditions, could see patchy fog develop in the river valleys and drainage areas, though increasing high clouds from showers and thunderstorms across the Northern Plains may limit potential.

Isotropic lift will continue to support the shorts pushing east, though activity will struggle the farther east it goes with limited moisture. Expect the net result to be increasing clouds, and potentially a few sprinkles across eastern KS. Have lowered forecast highs across eastern KS into western MO with increasing clouds.

Ridge riding short wave is expected to build south along the Missouri River basin Sunday night. Increasing isentropic lift near the 310K surface may lead to spotty showers and thunderstorms overnight. Mid- level lapse rates are near moist adiabatic so showers should have limited instability to work with, and dry air near the surface should limit precip potential.

Warmer, more muggy conditions are expected the first half of next week as the long standing upper ridge expands east. A series of ridge riding short waves building into the Upper Midwest could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Could be some few to scattered cumulus across central Missouri this afternoon, which should rapidly discipate towards sunset. Potential for patchy fog tonight in the river vallies, so added mention of fog at KSTJ. Any fog should rapidly burn off towards 14Z Sunday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.