textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including heavy rainfall.

* Quiet weather early next week, then chances for storms return midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As high pressure continues sliding off to the east, a southerly flow regime will persist, prompting sustained warm/moisture advection through the Central Plains. Overnight, elevated showers have developed overtop this warm/moist southerly flow, with the primary warm front remaining to the south. These elevated showers still pose a threat for strong/severe storm development through the night, with ample MUCAPE and sufficient mid-level lapse rates posing threats for damaging wind/hail. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may lead to some concern for flashiness through the night, especially for urban areas.

Going into the morning/early afternoon, lingering activity from overnight will gradually progress further east, allowing the atmosphere to recuperate instability as the warm front continues pushing northward and skies clear out partially into the afternoon. CAMs have not simulated much in the way of warm sector storms with recent runs, and thus confidence in the development of discrete storms remains lower (30-50%) over much of the forecast area through the afternoon. Greater confidence still remains in storms firing along a cold front and passing shortwave disturbance later into the evening, with the potential for the development of discrete storms immediately ahead of the front. Some uncertainty remains with the impact that earlier activity will have on the coverage/timing of storms along the boundary, but with adequate environmental parameters (greater effective bulk shear, ample instability, decent mid-level lapse rates) vigorous convection along the line is not out of the question. With storms, all severe hazards (damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes) would be possible, with severe wind progressively becoming the main hazard as storms congeal into a line along the cold front. In addition to these concerns, areas that have previously seen heavy rainfall will have an enhanced concern for flooding/flash flooding with locally heavy rainfall, with efficient rainfall indicated by higher PWAT values. With that concern, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Temperatures are expected to lower behind the cold front, with highs in the low/mid 70s. The upper-level trough is expected to cycle around the Hudson Bay, and generally place much of the forecast area under zonal flow on Monday before several shortwave disturbances will traverse the upper-level flow and place the forecast area under multiple rounds for precipitation. The first of these rounds appears Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a weak boundary invigorating scattered chances (15-30%) for precipitation. By Wednesday afternoon, another upper-level trough and associated surface low will increase chances (40-60%) of precipitation through the evening and overnight along another boundary. Temperatures this day will climb ahead of strong surface-based southerly flow, with forecast highs reaching the mid/high 80s. The boundary may slow/stall through Thursday, prompting precipitation chances to continue mostly along/south of the I-70 corridor. By the end of the forecast period, brief amplified ridging to the west keeps remaining PoPs lower.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Cloud cover has progressively built in at terminals through the overnight. Sporadic showers/storms through the morning are expected to remain south of downtown terminals, and gradually move east through the morning. PROB30 exists during the afternoon for isolated TSRA development, with prevailing TSRA building in at terminals beginning around 23z and lasting through 3z with the passage of a cold front. After weather exits, winds shifting from southerly to northerly/northwesterly. MVFR ceilings persist through late in the forecast period before lifting to low-end VFR.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ028-029-037-038- 043>045-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.