textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and above normal temperatures continue through the end of the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances return on Saturday (30 to 50%), especially for areas south of Interstate 70.

- Significantly above normal temperatures appear probable for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Current H5 analysis shows 50 to 60 knot WNW flow aloft over our region between low amplitude troughing across the eastern CONUS and low amplitude ridging to our west out ahead of an upper trough approaching the West Coast. At the surface, a 1029 mb surface high is centered over southeastern Nebraska, slowly sliding to the east toward far NW Missouri. 3 AM temperatures range from the mid 20s to the low 30s, with light winds and some isolated cirrus traversing west to east across the CWA. The mid/upper level pattern remains largely unchanged through the day today, with the surface high sliding eastward from NW Missouri this morning to St. Louis by late evening. Winds will remain light and variable due to the surface high passing overhead, with afternoon highs warming to the low to mid 50s. By tomorrow, the surface high slides further east into the Ohio Valley, turning surface winds southeasterly and increasing slightly. A subtle shortwave trough and associated mid level vort max is progged to move out of the Northern Plains and into the Midwest, translating within the northwesterly flow aloft, which will help usher in increased cloud cover and a 10 to 20 percent chance for some sprinkles tomorrow afternoon.

By Friday, the aforementioned upper trough that is currently approaching the West Coast moves into the Desert Southwest/NW Mexico, bringing mid level ridging eastward over our CWA out ahead of it. This should yield slightly warmer temperatures, with afternoon high temperatures back into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This trough moves further east into SW Texas by early Saturday morning and eventually into the far Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley by Saturday evening, with widespread forcing for ascent and moisture return spreading across the Southern Plains/Lower and southern Mid Mississippi Valleys. Rain chances will increase by early Saturday morning, initially for areas south of the KC metro (30%), with rain chances increasing and pushing further north through Saturday afternoon and evening (up to 50% for areas south of the Interstate 70 corridor). Models continue to differ with the exact evolution of this system, and it appears likely that our CWA will be on the northern edge of the associated precipitation shield. The 00z ECMWF ensemble gives only around a 20% chance for total rainfall to exceed 0.5" across our far southeastern counties toward the Ozark Plateau while the GEFS gives a 50 to 60% chance for rainfall to exceed 0.5" for these same areas and a 30% chance as far north as Interstate 70. The 00z Canadian ensemble is even more bullish on the probability for 0.5" of rain or more for the southern half of the CWA. Ultimately, the NBM has trended further south with the higher PoPs and QPF for now, showing only a 40% probability for total rainfall to exceed 0.1" at MCI and the probability of rain exceeding 1" dropping all the way down to around 10%. Rain should exit west to east by late Saturday night.

Warmer temperatures appear likely on Sunday and into early next week as the aforementioned trough is progged to move into the deep South/Gulf Coast, with relatively high amplitude mid/upper ridging building in across the central CONUS behind it. The most recent NBM 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT at MCI are 63 and 72 degrees, respectively, for Monday, and 70 and 77 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday, although the NBM deterministic MaxT for Tuesday is only 67 degrees (note that the record high at MCI for next Tuesday is 74 degrees).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period at all four terminals. Winds will remain light and generally out of the southeast today. High clouds will float across the region today, likely becoming more expansive by tomorrow morning, but will not be impactful.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.