textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A wintry mix may bring very minor snow accumulations for far northern and northeastern MO from this evening into the overnight hours. There is roughly a 5-20% chance for any snow along and north of a line from Grant City to just north of Kirksville and less than a 5% chance for an inch of snow along the IA/MO state line.

- Very cold temperatures move into the area tonight and linger through Monday. Wind chill values are forecast to remain single digits to mid 20s (from north to south) through the day Sunday.

- The remainder of the forecast is very likely to be dry, with only small precipitation chances Wednesday night/ early Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

An embedded shortwave trough, within broad northwesterly flow, will bring a chance for snow to far northern/northeastern MO this evening and overnight, and a small chance for light further south. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and mid 30s as a warm front has lifted into northern MO. This warm and moist advection helped fog to persist longer into the day. That warm front connects to the surface low in central NE. The cold front that will surge colder air southward into the region is still sitting across SD. As the shortwave approaches from the northwest this afternoon and evening, the surface low will be forced southeastward cross northern MO. As that low shifts east overnight, the cold front will surge southward through the area, increasing winds from the northwest to north and dropping temperatures. With the bulk of the forcing/ ascent north of the area, and temperatures warming into the middle 30s across northern MO, the potential for icing in that part of the forecast area has decreased. But there may be enough support for minor snow accumulations along the MO/IA state line. Confidence in this is not very high given the low probabilities for seeing even any measurable snow. Further south, in the vicinity of the cold front, isolated to scattered rain showers are possible. This area looks fast-moving and QPF is limited to perhaps a few hundredths of an inch, with the best chance for anything measurable east of I-35.

As mentioned, temperatures drop behind the front such that by sunrise Sunday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the teens to low 20s across northern MO with 30s in our southeastern zones. Cold advection continues through the day so we'll see near steady or even falling temperatures through the afternoon. With winds during the gusting to 20 to 25 mph, wind chill values will be bitterly cold with values in the single digits across northern MO to the middle teens in our southern zones. Winds weaken later in the day/ sunset, but as temperatures fall through the evening, wind chills in the single digits to teens look widespread.

The central US will remain in a broadly northwesterly flow regime through the week. This will keep the area in a progression of clipper/ clipper-like systems. Each of these waves vary in the amount of moisture available with them. The strongest and most robust with moisture looks to arrive Wednesday evening - Thursday AM. Given the variability, PoPs are still quite low. The probability distribution for any measurable snow (0.1") is similar to the current system and generally keeps the greatest probabilities in far northern to northeastern MO. But there are 5-20% chances starting near the KC metro that increase further north and northeast. So this will need to be watched as any variability in the track of the clipper could shift the track of any accumulating snow north or south with it.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1039 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

MVFR - IFR ceilings are expected to build into the region behind a cold front moving through the region. Light wintry precip is possible near the Iowa/Missouri border through 10Z. Thereafter, the MVFR stratus is expected to remain through much of the day, thinning and scattering out towards sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.