textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue into the weekend.

- Widespread rain becoming more likely for late Friday night into Saturday evening, especially along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor (70% to 90%).

- Significantly above normal temperatures are probable for early next week, especially Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

H5 analysis shows 50+ knot WNW flow over the region this morning between broad troughing to the east and ridging to the west downstream of a closed H5 low and associated troughing approaching the West Coast. At the surface, the center of a 1028 mb high has settled into southern Illinois, yielding light southeasterly winds with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to the mid 30s under some mid to high level clouds translating NNW to SSE across the region. The forecast has trended drier today, so the low end chances for some sprinkles this afternoon have been removed. Afternoon high temps should remain well above normal, ranging from the mid 50s across NE Missouri to as warm as the lower 60s toward the KC metro.

By tomorrow, the aforementioned upper trough that is currently approaching the West Coast moves into the Desert Southwest/Baja California, amplifying mid/upper ridging downstream into the south central CONUS. This should help send temperatures a few degrees warmer, with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 60s for most locations. By late tomorrow night into early Saturday morning, this trough further approaches with the H5 ridge axis extending from New Mexico into Chihuahua, and eventually into the far Southern Plains, ushering in broadscale forcing for ascent and moisture return from southwest to northeast into our region. Whereas previously subsequent new model output was taking this system and the associated precipitation field further south, model guidance has suggested a northerly shift over the last 24 hours or so. Rain chances begin after midnight Saturday morning, initially far areas south and southwest of the KC metro, with the precipitation shield spreading further northeast through the early morning hours of Saturday and into Saturday afternoon. Rain should come to an end from west to east by Saturday night as the H5 trough axis pushes east of our CWA. PoPs are significantly higher this morning compared to when I did the forecast this time yesterday, with 75% to 90% PoPs for areas along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor (highest PoPs across our far south/southeastern counties toward the Ozark Plateau) and 50% to 75% PoPs for areas north of Interstate 70. Accordingly, the total forecast rainfall amounts have also increased, but the gradient of more rain across our southern zones to less rain across our northern zones still exits. The most recent run of the NBM gives the probability of rainfall exceeding 0.5" as 25% at Kirksville, 38% at St. Joseph, 60% at Kansas City, 70% at Sedalia, and 80% at Butler. The NBM probabilities of 50% or greater for 1" or more of rain remains south of US Highway 50. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for the 00z run shows 0.6 to 0.8 for areas south of Interstate 70, indicating the chance for an unusual rainfall event, climatologically speaking. The shift of tails for this same location is above zero, but below one, suggesting at least a few of the ECMWF ensemble members suggest the potential for rainfall to exceed the 99th percentile of the model climate distribution.

Warmer temperatures appear likely on Sunday and into early next week as the upper trough is progged to move eastward into the deep South/Gulf Coast, with mid/upper ridging building in across the central CONUS behind it. The warmest day appears to be Tuesday, which looks to be aided by theta e advection out ahead of mid/upper troughing and an associated cold front approaching from the west. The most recent NBM 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT at MCI are 65 and 70 degrees, respectively, for Monday, and 68 and 75 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday (note that the record high at MCI for next Tuesday is 74 degrees). In addition to the warm temperatures, enhanced south southwesterly winds are probable for Tuesday afternoon with sustained winds on the order of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with scattered to broken clouds around 20 kft streaming from west to east across the region through the morning and afternoon hours. Skies should mostly clear by around 00z this evening. Very light east southeasterly winds this morning should become southerly within a few hours, remaining only around 5 knots. Winds become nearly calm and variable by this evening, continuing through the overnight hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.