textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Another frost/freeze night likely for northern areas Monday night/Tuesday morning. - Frost possible tonight/early Monday for northern areas as well

* Chances (>40%-60%) for rain turning to snow Monday night into early Tuesday morning over northern Missouri and into Iowa. - A narrow band of heavier accumulating snow possible

* Active pattern with warmer temperatures and multiple opportunities for precipitation... as early as Wednesday night through the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Abundantly quiet conditions prevailed across the area, albeit on the chilly side this morning, under the influence of NE winds and surface high pressure. Aside from a small handful of fair weather cumulus seen on satellite, skies remained clear to mostly clear across the region with temperatures rising into mid and upper 50s by early this afternoon.

After the quiet weekend, activity tends to pick up within the forecast, especially once we reach mid-late week and onward. But first, we will see back-door type cold front drop down into portions of the forecast area tonight and into/through Monday. This tends to bifurcate the area with highs ranging from the low 50s (north) to the upper 60s (south). More importantly, this likely places a low level (~900-800mb) boundary across northern portions of Missouri. While we are in that transition window from synoptic to hi-res time scales, both sets tend to be in good agreement of jet streak dropping through the flow, the broad position of that low-level boundary, and at least decent f-gen forcing at that level. This has been reflected in a general uptick in QPF among guidance and some honing in on the narrow band/banded potential. Temperatures dictate a rain to snow transition Monday evening into overnight, which also further complicates the snowfall amount forecast. SLRs in the single digits are effectively guaranteed with much of the sounding within a couple degrees of freezing and a narrow area of ice introduction/DGZ saturation. The forecast package this afternoon more broadly highlights areas north of Highway 36 for light snowfall potential and a corridor of up to a couple inches closer to the Iowa border. Where the forecast likely falls short is the potential for a narrow band of a few inches possible given the forcing mentioned above. As we further enter hi-res windows, expect the snowfall area to likely narrow and indicate a stronger potential for a heavier narrow band. The heavier/wet nature may make travel especially slick at times should it be able to stick to roadways. Snowfall or not, this too will highlight areas for another frost/freeze opportunity Monday night/Tuesday morning with forecast lows in the low 30s. Again, primarily around/norther of Highway 36, if not down toward the Missouri River. Colder conditions hang on through Tuesday for areas north of the cold front before warmer temperatures surge back.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

By Wednesday/mid-week, surface high pressure across the Northern Plains scoots into/through the Great Lakes, allowing southerly winds and warmer temperatures to surge northward. This will push temperatures back toward and above normal into the 60s/70s much of the remainder of the forecast. This too will begin to set the table for numerous (seemingly never ending) precipitation opportunities to round out the work week and through the weekend.

Within the large scale, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal by mid-week with shortwave disturbances moving through both the southern and northern streams. Much of Wednesday looks to remain dry as the area remains largely moisture starved and deepest initial forcing displaced southward. By the evening/overnight, deeper moisture return begins to advect northward into/through the Plains ahead of the northern stream wave and an approaching surface front. This tends to yield our first of numerous shower/thunderstorm opportunities through the remainder of the forecast. Said frontal boundary is largely anticipated to hang out within the area, continuing shower/storm chances through Thursday if not Friday and into Saturday as a large surface high is depicted slowly crossing the Northern Plains. The strong/severe storm risk too as a result appears quite limited at this time. Instead, the river and areal flood risk may be the main concern depending on how the surface boundary migrates during this time frame.

Shower/storm opportunities remain Saturday and Sunday as a deeper southern stream wave moves into the SW CONUS, turning mid-upper level flow pattern more southwesterly over the central CONUS. As multiple compact shortwaves eject out of the larger feature, moisture will be continuing to advect into the region to help fuel these opportunities. Stronger wind profiles may suggest some stronger/severe storm opportunity, but much to navigate prior to this time frame. Otherwise, expect largely seasonal temperatures, as noted above.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

High pressure will keep conditions clear through the overnight hours. Increasing high-level clouds expected by late Monday afternoon. Ceilings will start to develop later Monday evening. Rain/Snow mix expected in northern Missouri, but may not reach STJ or KC Metro terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.