textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Still looking like another active period setting up for Thursday into Friday with showers and storms. Flooding is possible with a low risk for severe thunderstorms. A Flood Watch is in effect for much of the area along and south of I-70 from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning.

- Increasing heat and humidity with little to no rain chances (20% or less) this weekend into next week. Heat indices rise to 100 to 110 Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Will continue with the potential for isolated/widely scattered airmass convection until sunset with continued heating and minimal CAP ahead of a weak boundary into far SE Nebraska. Weak deep layer shear generally less than 25 kt will limit any organized severe weather potential. However, will have to keep an eye on some gusty wind threat with any convection with a DCAPE reservoir around 1000+ j/kg.

There will be another chance for showers and storms late tonight. This will be attendant to a wave packet sliding ESE from Montana and Wyoming in NW flow aloft.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The main focus continues to revolve around a potentially active period Thursday into Friday morning, as a shortwave interacts with a very moist airmass (PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches) pooling in the vicinity of a frontal zone draped in or near the area. The challenge is there continues to be considerable spread in the CAM and deterministic guidance in latitudinal variance of the heavy rain axis and also some timing differences. There will be the low risk (level 1/2 of 5) for severe weather later tomorrow afternoon into evening, particularly heading south of I-70, which is progged to be closer to the surface front and better instability (MUCAPE 1500-2500 j/kg) amidst ample deep layer shear (0-6km 35-40+ kt) to foster a threat mainly for damaging winds with precip loading in high WBZ and PWAT airmass. A secondary threat for large hail would exist should any supercells occur. In addition, with a ramping nocturnal southwesterly LLJ enhancing low level hodographs we could see the tornado potential develop in the evening, with the boundary location critical to where this threat will exist - currently suggested mainly just south of our cwa. Otherwise, the other main threat will be heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding given such high PWATs and warm cloud depths making for very efficient rainfall producers. Given the southwesterly jet impinging on the boundary there will be the potential for repetitive convection further enhancing rainfall amounts and owing to a localized flash flood threat. 12z HREF LPMM depicts this signal for very heavy rain with pockets of 3-5"+. Always a concern to see such high PWATs near 2". While there is still plenty of uncertainty in the latitudinal position of the heaviest rainfall axis, enough of a signal and potential exists to warrant the issuance of a Flood Watch 18z Thursday to 12z Friday for roughly along and south of I-70. This is where the preponderance of the guidance signal for heavy rain is suggested and where WPC's highest probabilities for excessive rainfall (25-39%) exist. It may be worth noting DProg/dt of the EFI QPF over the past few runs also shows a northward shift more into areas along/south of I-70.

Friday into Friday night there will still be some shower and storm chances with any residual boundaries given the lingering very moist airmass. Forcing aloft looks to be weaker and will likely lead to lower chances and less potential for organization, with the south/east portions of the area most favored.

This weekend through early next week continues to show very warm/ hot conditions enveloping the region as an upper level ridge amplifies over the central CONUS. NBM interquartile spreads are around 90 to the mid 90s in the 25th to 75th percentiles. EFI is not marking this as extreme warmth, but given the prolonged cool period we've had this will further accentuate the heat and those with outdoor activities planned will want to be sure and practice heat safety. Heat indices should peak in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Challenges include the potential for a period of MVFR ceilings and isolated shra/tsra this afternoon into early evening. This potential looks to be greatest (albeit still 20-30%) near KSTJ in the vicinity of a weak boundary, but can't rule out isolated convection elsewhere with a transitory bout of MVFR with any thinning of cirrus debris. For now, have kept PROB30 mention only at KSTJ 20z-23z. Higher moisture laden airmass may lead to some stratus and lower ceilings (MVFR to perhaps IFR?), but confidence is low with considerable spread and uncertainty in the guidance. Thus, have largely maintained VFR conditions and let later shifts re- evaluate and add if confidence increases. Late tonight and Thursday morning there is some signal for at least scattered convection, particularly near the northern sites and have added PROB30 mention.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for MOZ028-029-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.