textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather and Slight (2/4) risk for excessive rainfall mainly west of I-35 tonight. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard.

- Slight (2/5) to Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather Thursday evening for areas east of the KC metro. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard.

- Rain chances stick around through Sunday. Highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Today will be one of the last dry days of the week with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the lower 90s. Clouds to start to build in from NW to SE this evening ahead of our next disturbance. Guidance shows mid-level shortwave moving through the northern Plains late tonight which will generate an MCS. So far, the environment still looks better (lift and shear) over the NE/IA border just to our NW. Though, we do expect the MCS to clip our western counties Thursday morning as the MCS starts to dive south from SE NE. With this MCS, damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and heavy rain are the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. SPC has issued a Slight risk (1/5) for severe weather mostly just for Atchison co since the better lift will be closer to the front that'll be draped over NE/IA. A Marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather has also been issued for areas mainly west of I-35 and north of the KC metro. WPC issued a Slight risk (2/4) for excessive rainfall over the NW portion of the state and a Marginal risk (1/4) for areas mostly along and west of Highway 65. The slight risk was likely issued because of the 1 hr flash flood guidance over that area as it'd only take 1-2"/hr rain rates to generate flash flooding. The ERO outlook encapsulates the areas that are the most likely to get clipped by the MCS early Thursday morning.

The MCS will get most of its moisture from the LLJ overnight into Thursday. Once the LLJ decouples on Thursday morning, the MCS is expected to dissipate. Seems that the MCS gets caught up moving along the shortwave and pushes northeast through the rest of the state as it slowly dissipates. This will be one of those days where the morning convection will heavily influence the evening convection. Guidance has clouds sticking around until early afternoon which is why we've lowered the high temperatures on Thursday for areas mainly north of I-70 by a few degrees to account for the clouds impacting daytime highs. Areas south of the interstate may not be impacted by the morning convection and may stay less cloudy throughout the day. Those areas will also be closer to the warm front that'll be hanging out over AR and will likely experience more WAA. Heat index values will range from 100-104 degrees for those areas.

If we can destabilize over NW MO, there could be a few pop-up thunderstorms initiating along the leftover MCS boundary near the KC metro by late afternoon. The question isn't if we can destabilize, it's where we're going to destabilize and where the boundary ends up stalling out for Thursday afternoon convection. Again, if NW MO can conjure up a proper environment, storms will start there. If not, storms may initiate a bit further east of the KC metro near the Highway 65 and I-70 intersection over north-central MO. Wherever these storms decide to initiate, they will signal the start of the next round of severe weather for our area. The MCS appears to get a boost from a surface low or shortwave of some sort on Thursday evening and that's when the system starts to get itself together. SPC has upgraded portions of the area to a Slight risk (2/5) for severe weather. The Slight risk covers a pretty large portion of the state and starts east of the KC metro and goes just south of Chillicothe down to Lebanon, east past St. Louis. We are expecting damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and heavy rain to be the main hazards with 1" hail as a lower probability hazard. These individual storms will merge into an MCS and push east through the evening/overnight hours. Referring back to the most recent July 4th MCS that moved through the area, there were several counties that lost power with that storm system. With winds possibly close to that speed once again, have multiple ways to receive warnings ahead of any power outages that may occur and be prepared for nighttime severe weather.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The warm front lifts north for the weekend and the latest model guidance has it settling near I-70 for Friday through Sunday. This front, coupled with several vort maxima forecast to eject from the passing wave, will bring us a rainy weekend. Chances for rain are 30-60% for Friday with the highest chance for rain occurring overnight into Saturday. Saturday features a 30-40% chance for rain for most of the day and Sunday has a 15-30% chance for rain with chances decreasing through the day. Due to the placement of the front, highest rainfall totals from today through Sunday are forecast to fall north of I-70 with a widespread 1-3" with localized higher amounts towards NE MO.

The rain/clouds moving in this weekend will help to keep temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 80s. With the start of next week expected to be dry, high temperatures are forecast get back into the mid 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The same quiet aviation weather that we have seen over the past few days will continue through the evening. Late tonight into tomorrow morning this will change as showers and storms move in from the west. This could lead to a period of MVFR in the heavier showers/storms. Kept with the PROB30 for now as there is still uncertainty on the exact timing of when this would pass each terminal and how strong they will be. The environment ahead of the storms will be dependent on how strong of a LLJ forms.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.