textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Some isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening(10-30%). More widespread rain and storms are expected to move in from the southwest late tonight into early Sunday(70-90%).

- Additional chances of showers/storms will persist through the weekend into early next week.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will return next week, with heat indices rising to the 90s and near 100 degrees across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

For the ongoing storms now, far northern MO and southern IA will be the area to keep an eye on. Instability remains good around 2000 to 2500, but effective shear is lacking. The best shear around 30 kts is well north of the forecast area into IA. Due to the lacking shear, storms will struggle to stay organized, but any stronger storms that moves in from the north/northwest could still cause some concerns. Mid level lapse rates are still good around 7c/km. So thunderstorm mode will likely be pulsy to linear at best with good vertical growth. This could lead to downburst activity or some brief hailers under the best conditions. Heavy rain will continue to be a concern especially with how much northern MO was worked over yesterday. PWAT remain high any thunderstorms that train over the same area could further exacerbate ongoing river flooding and aerial ponding. On thing working in our favor here tonight is that storms seem much more transient and weaker. QPF totals are much lower with much of the area expected to top out around an inch of rain in comparison to last night.

As the mid and upper level shortwave pull away toward the Great Lakes Region later tonight, these storms will lose the needed lift, weakening and dissipating with time. Meso guidance suggests most of the thunderstorm activity moving out prior to sunrise.

For Saturday, much of the morning into the early afternoon should be dry ahead of the incoming cut off low from TX. As upper level PVA starts to stream in combined with the southerly winds and mid level WAA, mid afternoon/evening destabilization looks likely again. Models are a bit all over the place with when convection starts to fire and where exactly it fires. As temperatures warm, forecast sounding show much of MO and eastern KS becoming uncapped around 18Z. That could fluctuate a hour or two later, but that could conceivable be the earliest convection starts to fire. MU CAPE looks to be around 2000-3000 again with shear again being out limiting factor with values less than 30 kts. This should again be more of a pulse thunderstorm mode type. Lightning, winds and small hail look to be the primary concerns with any stronger storms.

Rain and thunderstorms chances will continue through Saturday night and Sunday as the cut off low moves overhead then advects northeast toward the Great Lakes Region. Overall this again looks to be a bad set up for any stronger to severe storms. CAPE profiles are very narrow/skinny and shear is marginal at best. This leaves subsevere winds, small hail, and lightning the largest concerns from a severe perspective. Flooding looks to be the larger concern overall. This lines up well with the WPC excessive rainfall outlook that has pretty much all of MO under a Slight risk. With ongoing hydrological concerns already in the short term, this long duration rain could just further exacerbate things.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The cutoff low will gradually move northeast out of the forecast area Monday. A few model runs/ensemble runs seem to favor another shortwave trough on the heels of this exiting cut off low so guidance is split on completely removing POPS for Monday. However there should be a gradual trend downward in the rain Monday morning as rain/storms pull northeast. A lull in activity then chances pick back up again around 40-60% for Monday night. Confidence is low on if this small shortwave will move through the forecast area or if it will stay to the north.

Otherwise high pressure will build back into the Plains as the cut off low exits. Mostly dry conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday. Guidance does try to bring some PVA aloft through the CWA as multiple shortwave troughs try to work through the flow. With the upper level pattern of a ridge across the eastern CONUS and a trough across the western CONUS, the central plains will be right along this transition zone. So low chance pops (around 20% or less) do crop up from time to time in through Thursday. Given the south/southwest winds and persistent WAA straight from the gulf. We will be warm and moist enough to get any popcorn type convection with any lift that moves through. Speaking of, confidence continues to grow with temperatures climbing into the 90s and dewpoints in the mid to potentially upper 70s. This raises concerns for heat indicies reaching the triple digits for much of next week. Potentially even multiple days in a row of hot and sticky conditions. Will be keeping an eye on this time period closely as we move through the weekend for any potential headlines.

For the end of the extended, guidance hints at the upper level pattern starting to move again with the trough across the western CONUS advancing east and dragging a cold front across the Plains and Great Lakes Region. This would be the light at the end of the tunnel for the heat and bring another round of rain/storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Some lower MVFR ceilings developed this morning and are moving along I-70. The back edge of these lowers ceilings are near the edge of the Kansas City metro and should move out within the next couple of hours bringing a brief return to VFR conditions. Mid to high level clouds will move in from the south to southwest late this morning through this evening ahead of approaching widespread rain and thunderstorms. Lower MVFR ceilings are expected to move in with the aforementioned rain with the cloud deck around 3-5 kft. These lower ceilings will overspread across the forecast area and should impact most terminals by early Sunday morning. These ceilings should start to move in around 9-10 PM and reach the KC metro by roughly 10-11 PM. There is a small chance for some slightly lower IFR ceilings to develop overnight with the cloud deck around 900 to 1300 feet. Confidence is low on these ceilings developing, but if they do it is likely that they persist through daybreak Sunday.

Light south to southwest winds are expected this morning through early this evening. As the rain begins to move in, winds will shift to southeast and should remain light. Light southeast winds will persist through Sunday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.