textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures through Thursday, culminating in likely record highs for the day.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Thursday evening as a strong cold front moves through the area.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday and Friday, especially for areas west of I-35.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Broad south-southwest flow is expected across the western 2/3 of the US as upper ridge expands eastward leading to unseasonably mild conditions across the region Wednesday-Thursday. Surface low pressure deepening across the across eastern Montana is expected to deepen tonight into tomorrow as it makes it's way east along the US/Candian border. Warm front associated with this system will lift northeast through the region on Wednesday with 850 hpa temperatures warming from near 10C towards the upper teens by late day. With the stout warming from the west, temperatures are expected to warm well into the 80s F region wide, with the coolest temperatures in the east. Record high temperatures for March 25th are relatively warm (90 F for MCI). HREF ensemble suggests little chance of breaking this record, but better chances are expected of breaking record high temperatures (85 F at MCI) on Thursday ahead of a cold front associated with trough moving along the US/Canadian border. Ahead of the front, the atmosphere appears to be effectively capped, but behind the front, there is a threat for elevated showers and thunderstorms. While instability looks to be limited, the dry nature of the near surface atmosphere could lead to ehanced wind gusts. Winds will already be quite strong north of the front with 35-40 knots of flow at 925 hpa. With this being within the mixed layer and the combined effect of the cold air advection, have raised wind gusts across northern Missouri by blending with the NBM90th. This pushes expected wind gusts to near wind advisory levels behind the front. In addition, will need to keep an eye on expected relative humidty behind the front which could lead to elevated fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon. Much cooler conditions are expected to return to the region Thursday night into Friday as strong mid- level frontogenesis leads to instability showers Thursday night.

Drier conditions are expected on Friday into the weekend as canadian high pressure builds into the region. As the surface ridge shifts east, warming southerly flow is expected through the weekend. This near surface warming combined with a series of shortwaves moving through zonal flow transitioning to more of southwest flow could lead to more unsettled weather pattern by Monday into Tuesday of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southerly flow remains through the period, becoming gusty after 15Z Wednesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.