textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet weather with mild temperatures through Monday.

* Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non- thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts possibly exceeding 45 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Drier air and high pressure is building into KS/MO today and should be centered over MO tonight. Diurnal cumulus clouds have already developed under the light northwest flow. High pressure will remain across the central US through Monday night before beginning to exit to the east. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be in the low to mid 50s with light and variable winds. Highs temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Heading into the midweek there will be a couple chances for rain and thunderstorms. The first of which kicks off Tuesday with low chances (10-25%) in the morning and again during the overnight hours. Aloft there will be a trough swinging through the north central CONUS with some PVA ejecting out into the Central Plains. There is still some uncertainty in how much lift there will be aloft between deterministic and ensemble guidance. From the deterministic side its most easily seen with looking at the GFS & Euro vs the NAM. The NAM is much further south with a potential for the upper level jet to nose into northern MO. The jet streak is expected to be on the weaker side for 500mb around 60 kts. The discrepancies here may really just mean the difference between scattered vs widespread rain/storms. In the mid levels and low levels storms seem to be routed to and just ahead of a weak passing cold front. Instability looks to be weaker overall with dewpoints expected to be in the 50s maybe low 60s if you squint at the right ensembles. Just lacking moisture and instability needed for any stronger storms at this time.

Wednesday looks like a far better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms for eastern KS and MO. A 500 mb trough will swing from roughly Alberta, CA into the southern Great Lakes before pulling across the northeastern CONUS. A very similar path to the trough on Tuesday, but stronger and slightly further south. This should provide the area with better upper level lift for storms. Moisture and instability should be much better as WAA returns to the area. Sticky and warm weather with breezy sfc winds. Dewpoints in the low 70s with high temps back in the upper 80s to low 90s is expected. SPC has already outlooked the area with a 30% probability for severe weather. Given the set up this is gearing up to be another round of late afternoon to late evening/overnight thunderstorms with all hazards possible. Its still a little early to give any more specifics such as specific areas, timing and intensities with any of this convection. Will for sure be a time period to keep an eye on though.

Thursday and Friday look be quieter as the upper level trough and sfc low move east northeast out of the area and high pressure builds in behind it. The next chance for rain and thunderstorms looks to move through late Saturday through Sunday with 50-60% chances. There remains some uncertainty in timing and strength of the next system. Deterministic 500 mb models show this well (GFS, Euro and Canadian) with just drastically difference scenarios.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal Cumulus clouds have developed across the northern third of Missouri. The few to scattered cloud bases are around 5kft. This deck could spread further south overtime and will erode near dusk this evening. Northwest winds around 10-15 kts will become light and variable around dark. Monday morning southwest winds return and should remain light. Diurnal cumulus may be possible again Monday afternoon near the end of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.