textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain expected throughout the day today...heaviest rain forecast south of the Missouri River where 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

- Temperatures climb 20 to 25 degrees above normal early next week.

- Next chance for precipitation come Thursday (20-40%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Early this morning, a upper level shortwave trough is moving from the eastern Rockies into the western High Plains. Out ahead of this feature, a south-southwesterly LLJ is nosing into the area providing for good moisture transport into the region. This LLJ is expected to be persistent today nosing into the area which will continue rain chances as the upper level shortwave moves across the central and southern Plains. Rain will then come to an end tonight as the upper level shortwave move through the local area. PWATs in the 1.00"- 1.20" range is in the 99th percentile for mid-February consequently, healthy rainfall totals are anticipated with areas south of the Missouri River forecast to pick up 1 to 2 inches. North of the Missouri River, rainfall totals will drop off quickly off from around an inch to just a few hundredths of an inch near the MO/IA border. Cloud cover and rain will hold highs in the low to mid 50s today. Sunday, the upper level system will slide east into the Tennessee River Valley. In its wake, broad upper level ridging will build in across much of the central CONUS in response to a upper level trough digging into the west coast. Surface high pressure will be in control over the forecast providing weak mixing however, height rise will still aid in highs rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday, the surface ridge will slide east allow WAA to develop. This will drive highs some 20 to 25 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

The warmest day of the forecast period currently looks to be Tuesday as the aforementioned upper level trough over the west coast moves to the eastern Rockies developing a cold front across the western Plains. This will cause WAA to strengthen across the area allowing highs to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday night, the upper level trough ejects out into the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force a Pacific front through the area with downsloping westerly flow behind it on Wednesday. This will drive highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The next chance for precipitation (20-40%) arrives Thursday as a upper level shortwave moves out into he central Plains forcing a cold front though the area. Moisture at this time looks limited, and the 00Z run of GFS weakens the upper level shortwave as it moves towards the region so precipitation chances and amounts are low confidence at this time. The associated cold front with this system should however return temperatures closer to normal. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 50s to the northwest, where the front will pass earlier in the day to near 70 across the southeast. However, by Friday highs will return to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

MVFR cigs are impacting the TAF sites to begin the TAF pd with lgt rain and fog reducing vis to 4SM-5SM. Aft 14Z-15Z cigs are fcst to become IFR with lgt and rain fog contg to reduce vis to 4SM-5SM. Rain is forecast to come to an end btn 22Z-23Z however, IFR cigs and lgt fog reducing vis to 4SM-5SM are expected to prevail thru the remainder of the TAF cycle. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the east around 10kts. By 2Z-23Z winds will shift to the NNE/NE remaining around 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.