textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Warming temperatures generally through Saturday then again into next week.

- Brief cool down Sunday

* Best widespread shower/storm chances appear Saturday PM into early Sunday. Strong to severe potential appears low/not currently expected. - Lesser shower/storm chances Friday PM

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Very broad/expansive area of surface high pressure dominated the Plains today, helping yield largely quiet conditions. With the center of the high pressure gliding down the Rockies Front Ranges, light to modest northerly winds have prevailed locally, helping keep temperatures cool and dry. Looking more aloft into the mid-upper levels, central CONUS remains within a NW flow regime and multiple shortwaves can be seen clearly on GOES WV imagery. Though with an abundantly dry air mass below, much ado about nothing, at least nothing more than some periods of increased cloud cover. High pressure continues to slide southward overnight and eventually more eastward over the Southern Plains. This will allow winds to go more light/variable for a time overnight before reestablishing out of the SW. There is the potential for some patchy frost tonight, mainly in rural and cold prone areas, but confidence is limited given the expectation for some lingering to periodic mid-high level cloud cover in the region.

While NW flow is notorious for low confidence shortwaves, guidance is in pretty good agreement on overall quiet conditions through the end of the work week. A compact shortwave looks to pass just N/NE of the area Thursday, but could eek out some very light rain in far N/NE Missouri. Otherwise, SW/S surface winds continue through this time frame and will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 60s to 70s. By later Friday, a shortwave will help induce and push a surface low off the Front Range and eastward along the Nebraska/Kansas border. This will signal our next opportunity for an rainfall. Warm front appears poised to lift toward/into Southern Iowa, keeping precipitation northward and more tied to the cold frontal passage for much of the area. Limited moisture return and moderate (at best) lapse rates may yield >1000 J/kg SBCAPE within an environment of 30-40kts of deep shear. The marginal shear and long/skinny CAPE profiles tend not to raise eyebrows. Generally expect more generic thunderstorms with the best chance for any stronger cores with initial storms before likely lining out along/near the front. This generally aligns with the SPC Day 3 General Thunder and various ML (GEFS or Euro aligned) output.

Warmer into Saturday with the above cold front not really packing any punch and SW flow quickly returning; highs into the low to mid 80s in many cases. By Saturday evening, a more widespread opportunity for thunderstorms remains signaled across synoptic guidance, but too does not raise many eyebrows. Current depictions suggest surface low struggles to develop and sustain out into the Plains, leaving much of the storm potential along a cold front dropping southward out of Iowa. Limited MUCAPE (<1000 J/kg), poor mid-level lapse rates, and marginal to unsupportive deep shear likely yield another round of general thunder storms. Given the stronger nature of cold front, Sunday will be briefly cooler with highs falling back into the upper 60s to low 70s.

Into next week, general NW mid-upper level flow continues to blanket the central CONUS. Precipitation opportunities appear limited, with shortwaves predominantly depicted to pass N/NE of the area. Of more confidence though will be additional warming temperatures. Mid-upper level height rises and low teens deg C 850mb trying to nose into the region may allow temperatures to top out Tuesday. This would likely yield 80s across the forecast area with an outside shot at touching 90 in western areas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. Seeing some lingering gusts at surrounding sites, but expecting those to fall off by the evening as the sun sets. Also seeing a daytime cu field off to the north approaching terminals, so have left in FEW060 through the evening to account for any lingering cu. Expecting winds to become variable for a few hours in the evening, before prevailing out of the southwest. Also expecting a brief passage of some denser high level clouds, before skies clear during the day tomorrow. Expecting winds to intensify to around 10-15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts through the end of the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.