textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south southwesterly winds are expected today through Thursday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon into Friday as a cold front is projected to move through the region.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally moderate rainfall will be possible.

- Unsettled weather looks likely to continue into the weekend, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Current H5 analysis shows ridging across much of the west central CONUS, however a subtle shortwave with a weak lobe of vorticity is currently translating within the northwesterly flow aloft over the Dakotas. At the surface, a relatively shallow surface low is analyzed over western Minnesota, with an attendant cold front trailing to the west southwest. With a tightening pressure gradient, enhanced south southwesterly winds have continued into the overnight period, with sustained winds on the order of around 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph, and this increased low level southerly flow has continued to advect increased moisture into the region throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. All of these factors have yielded much warmer temperatures this morning compared to those of the previous few mornings, with 3 AM temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

The aforementioned subtle shortwave will continue to translate to the southeast through the day today, with the shortwave axis extending from roughly Lake Superior into central Illinois by this evening. This will push the cold front further south and east toward our CWA, extending roughly west to east across south central Iowa into northern Illinois by this evening, with an axis of 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE developing ahead of the front across northern Missouri. This will yield about a 10% to 20% chance for an isolated shower/thunderstorm this evening across far NE Missouri. Aside from these low end PoPs across NE Missouri, well above normal temperatures are expected today (highs ranging from mid 80s across NW Missouri to the upper 70s elsewhere) as well as 15 to 20 mph SW winds gusting up to 30 mph. Moisture return will continue throughout the day, with dew points rising into the mid 50s by this afternoon.

The western mid/upper trough is projected to enter into the western CONUS by late tonight, reaching the Intermountain West by Wednesday afternoon with mid/upper ridging continuing over our CWA downstream. Warm temperatures (although a few degrees cooler than today) and breezy south southwesterly winds should continue, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

On Thursday, broad longwave troughing will remain anchored across the western CONUS, with the initial shortwave lifting to the northeast across the Northern Plains and into Canada. Meanwhile, a lower amplitude wave is progged to cross the Southern Rockies and move into the South Central High Plains by Thursday evening. This will yield increased southwesterly deep layer flow over the CWA by Thursday afternoon. At the surface, a strong surface cyclone should develop over North Dakota by Thursday morning, moving northeastward into southern Manitoba throughout Thursday afternoon and evening, with an attendant cold front extending southward into central Kansas, linking up with a secondary surface low with a southward extending dryline into western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.

Strong southerly low level flow should develop out ahead of these features across our CWA on Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to 30 to 35 mph. Continued moisture advection should send dew points into the lower 60s (perhaps even mid 60s across the KC metro and points south and west), and with temperatures reaching the upper 70s by mid afternoon, MU CAPE is projected to range from around 1250 to 2000 J/kg Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. This will be paired with around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer bulk shear, allowing for relatively well organized updrafts capable of producing severe weather. Mid level height falls along and ahead of the approaching cold front should initiate storms sometime Thursday afternoon, likely west of our CWA across SE Nebraska into eastern Kansas. Storm mode may be initially discrete or semi discrete, but with mid level flow mostly parallel to the front, storms will likely grow upscale into one or more linear segments as they move eastward toward our CWA. The new SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook places NW Missouri and NE Kansas within the slight risk (basically along and west of Interstate 35 from the Iowa border to KC and into Linn County KS), with a marginal risk for the remainder of the CWA.

In addition to the severe potential, models suggest a plume of 1.25 to 1.5" PWATs ahead of the front, which may promote locally moderate rainfall. WPC continues to highlight the entire CWA within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The most recent NBM run gives around a 20 to 30% chance for rainfall to exceed 1" across NE KS into NW Missouri, with around a 50% chance across the KC metro, peaking at around 60% southeast of the KC metro. The cold front should move through the region from northwest to southeast overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, although some guidance is once again suggesting that the front may not completely clear the CWA (such as the 00z GFS), with continued shower and thunderstorm chances into Friday afternoon.

As we head into the weekend, models suggest the potential for yet another trough moving across the western CONUS and entering into the Plains Sunday morning and ejecting across the central CONUS Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This would keep shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast, especially for Sunday into Monday morning (peaking around 70% PoPs for 7 PM Sunday through 7 AM Monday). Locally moderate rainfall may be possible once again during this period. Near normal temperatures (highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s) are favored for Friday through Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with only some passing high clouds and 15 knot south southwesterly winds gusting up to 25 to 27 knots. These conditions should generally persist through the daytime hours today, with winds and gusts decreasing just a bit tonight into the overnight hours. Gusts should relax by around 9z to 10z Wednesday morning, with MVFR CIGs potentially developing.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.