textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

UPDATE

Issued at 438 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Convergent boundary roughly analyzed along the Missouri River this hour. Not seeing much activity along it, but do have a few cells over far NW MO. Otherwise, convective complex over NE KS is weakening, whereas complex over NW KS...more closely tied to the approaching shortwave...is remaining healthy with new development this hour. Tracking the lead storm moving easterly...assuming it maintains current speed...gets it into SE KS in the 19-20Z time frame.

What may be setting up is a two-pronged rain event. The NE KS weakening system should allow for some pockets of instability to develop this afternoon close to that convergent boundary. This activity also would have some upper level support with the shortwave. The second prong would be the activity coming in from the NW KS...which has a better chance to bring some stronger winds as CAPE's down there should be much higher than what we'll have to work with up in the KC Metro.

The 08Z HRRR shows this thinking well...with a gap in between the two systems that doesn't see as much rain. The 06Z NAM doesn't have as large a gap, but also shows the two prongs. That NAM solution shows showers/storms developing along the east/west boundary at almost anytime today...so not ideal for any outdoor activities planned in the KC Metro today. The HRRR holds off until instability is a bit stronger in the 21Z and beyond time frame. Current forecast maintains 20-30 pops along that convergent boundary until mid afternoon when it starts surging into the likely range (60-70%) by evening.

Will update the gridded forecast with this new two-pronged thinking in mind.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

National radar mosaic shows an east/west oriented boundary helping maintain showers and storms from eastern CO to northwest OH. Activity along this boundary has been enhanced over north central and northwest KS with more widely scattered storms farther east. GOES water vapor imagery shows a fairly potent upper wave coming over the Rockies this hour.

The crux of today's forecast lies on how far south that surface boundary gets and then what happens with the wave upstream. Hi-res model guidance have not handled these features that well, so it leads to a little lower confidence in the timing/location forecast. That said, we do have plenty of moisture available to work with, per GOES sounder data showing a bubble of 1.5+ inch precipitable water over the northern half of MO and a pool of available moisture over OK/KS.

The leading edge of the shortwave will get into eastern KS later this afternoon. Will current activity over northern KS merge into an MCS and blast through during the daytime hours or will the current activity weaken and allow for new development this afternoon that pushes into our region at the current forecast peak time (for severe potential) of 4 PM-9 PM? Either way, rain chances are high for today, and the current Flood Watch area looks good...with current areal average QPF around 2". Interesting that HREF LPMM shows a bullseye of up to 7" just south of our southern border. That's a reasonable high-end amount in the high pwat environment we're in, but the exact location may waiver north/south, again based on how that surface convergence boundary meanders today.

Expect frequent updates to the forecast as we track all of these features and try to probabilistically feature the areas most at risk. The southern edge of the storm activity will have better access to instability to work with, and at this time that looks like it would be south of the KC Metro. However, should the upstream system weaken some, we could get some pockets of instability farther north. If that lines up with the surface convergence boundary, we could get some locally damaging wind gusts.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

General troughiness remains along with the juicy airmass even into Saturday. Will continue to carry pops...and may have to watch for pockets of locally heavy rainfall. Given the lack of an organized system moving through, not planning on extending the Flood Watch beyond the current Friday morning expiration.

The next big story, which comes with high confidence, is a hot pattern starting Saturday and continuing well into the work week. Ridging aloft will pair with strong southerly surface winds Saturday through Monday to bring that warm air quickly over us. Heat Indices likely will peak well above 100 degrees each afternoon. Current messaging focuses on the sudden change from our recent cool pattern and how this will impact outdoor activities.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Busy day across the region. East/west boundary along the Missouri River may focus storm development at the KC Metro terminals this afternoon before a larger wave of storms comes in from the west later this afternoon and evening. After that prolonged wave, expect lowering ceilings tonight as well as lingering rains.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for MOZ028-029-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.