textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* A few flurries possible through tonight, up to dusting

* Bitter cold tonight, lows around zero with wind chills falling to around -10 deg F

* Snow chances return Saturday evening into early Sunday, best chances over northern Missouri - Chances for measurable, but chances for 1/2" or great <15%

* Additional chances for precipitation Tuesday int Wednesday - Fair amount of uncertainty, but best chances S and W Missouri

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Aside from the well below normal temperatures (normals mid-upper 30s) today, not a whole lot to write home about. Water vapor imagery continues to clearly depict shortwave dropping southward out of the Northern Plains and into the Central Plains. Aside from helping advect in reinforcing cold air, it has also tried to squeeze out snow. Current radar depicts returns from SW Missouri angled back to the WNW/NW through Kansas and into south-central Nebraska. Corresponding surface observations do tend to show that a number of areas underneath these radar returns are resulting in light snow, mostly >4mi visibilities. Trajectory of this shortwave and radar features will keep vast majority of this activity away from the area. A secondary band of clouds continues to drop out of Iowa/Nebraska and into Northern Missouri, but further lacks sufficient moisture depth to squeeze widespread flurries in the traditional sense. Visible satellite/radar/model soundings all suggest or depict very weak convection that may yield short periods of flurries. Within the forecast, do have flurries through this evening as a result. Regardless, impact/consequences not expected. More notable will be the reinforcing cold air. Combined with clearing skies and easing winds, overnight lows will fall to around zero across the area, with northern areas likely to be a couple/few degrees below zero while southern areas of the CWA (Butler/Clinton/Sedalia/etc) to or just above zero. Even with light winds, this may push wind chill values into the -10 to -15 deg F range at times Saturday morning.

Much of the forecast going forward is on the quiet side, albeit with multiple low-end or nuisance chances for precipitation. The next of which will arrive Saturday evening into Sunday as a northern stream shortwave drops through/across the Northern Plains on the leading edge of wider (central CONUS) mid-upper level height rises. As has been noted by previous discussion, there is better moisture with this feature, including some periods of at least moderate isentropic lift, but the strong/deeper synoptic scale lift associated with the previously mentioned shortwave will be displaced northward. All to say... a light to "heavy" dusting appears to be the result for areas along/north of Highway 36. NBM 24-hr snow probabilities reinforce this with probabilities of measurable (0.1" or greater) up to 40-50% near the Missouri borders with NE Kansas, SE Nebraska, and Iowa. Using a 1/2" threshold, NBM probabilities substantially fall off, generally <10-15%. With light winds, whatever amounts will be on the light/fluffy side with only low-end/limited travel impacts possible in areas that see greatest accumulations. Any travelers into eastern Nebraska and Iowa are likely to see nominally greater accumulations.

The mid-upper level height rises and reestablished southerly winds will help push temperatures back toward seasonal norms Sunday into early next week. Highs above freezing are likely across western half of CWA Sunday, while the eastern areas may have to wait until Monday. Regardless, highs back into the mid-upper 30s and 40s return for at least a couple days ahead precipitation chances Tuesday into Wednesday as another shortwave drops through northern stream/northwest mid-upper level flow. Current GFS and Euro ensemble runs are in fair agreement keeping majority of precipitation just to the S and E of the CWA. Deterministic/operational GFS is stronger/more widespread than the Euro with regards to precipitation, and this too is reflected within their respective ensembles. GFS tends to have ~50% members with T or greater accumulations over KIRK/KDMO (eastern CWA) while Euro <20% of members, and then less in both as you work back west across the CWA. Timing of the wave and resulting precipitation chances may play the largest role in precipitation type, with forecast temperatures in the low-mid 30s for areas with the current greatest PoPs. Lots of time to hash out, but this includes the potential for some light freezing rain/drizzle from a quick peek at soundings. Fortunately current model runs keep QPF light with northward advecting moisture late to the party (phases further east).

Very quick peek through the rest of next week, temperatures poised to rebound back above freezing through the latter half of the week. But again short lived as a fairly well agreed upon northern stream wave and accompanying surface low drop across the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Not quite a full VFR period, but not too far off either. An area of MVFR ceilings continues to gradually drop southward out of Iowa, and appears poised to be high-MVFR across the TAF sites this afternoon into evening before clearing back out. Given upstream obs and trends, most mentions of BKN/OVC025 or 030. Winds will periodically gust to the low 20s kts this afternoon/early evening as well before easing and shifting from the N to NW. As the aforementioned MVFR cigs drop southward, some light flurries may be experienced, but given expectation for P6SM with or without, have opted against any prevailing mentions.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.