textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms have resulted in cooler temperatures (mid- to-upper 80s) across the area today. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory have been cancelled.

- Shower and thunderstorm activity through the early afternoon has reduced potential impacts on afternoon/evening activity. Confidence remains low (20-30%) in exact evolution of afternoon activity after 3pm.

- Isolated storms possible (15-25%) Sunday afternoon, however, confidence remains low in timing and placement.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Widespread convection has been the story of the morning across northern/central MO and eastern KS. A bow echo has been producing 60 mph winds across the southern portion of the CWA over the past couple of hours. This complex of storms will move off to the east leaving cooler temperatures in its wake. Cloud cover and stratiform rain across northern MO will help keep temperatures significantly cooler than previous days with highs only reaching the mid-to-upper 80s and maximum heat indices in the mid-90s. As such, both the Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory have been cancelled early.

Previous forecast cycles have highlighted the potential for afternoon and evening convection, mainly along and south of I-70, however, given the complex of storms that has rolled through this morning, uncertainty now exists in whether this second round will be able to form in our area at all. The CAMs have struggled to pick up on any convective trends this morning, so am relying heavily on current mesoanalysis and pattern recognition. The outflow boundary from this morning's convection should be placed south of the southern CWA border and current thinking is that this should be the focus for redevelopment this afternoon and evening. However, additional storms have fired across central KS and are moving east towards MO. These storms are generally along and south of I-70, but with an eastward trajectory, could impact areas across the southern KC Metro. As such, have kept some precipitation chances (40-60%) along and south of I-70 through the afternoon and evening hours. Any storms that are able to develop will have 30-40 kts of deep layer shear to work with, so certainly cannot rule out the potential for additional severe weather through the evening, but the best chances for that look to be south of the area where the environment hasn't been worked over yet.

Moving into tomorrow, there is yet another chance for showers and storms as a secondary shortwave amplifies overhead. However, confidence is once again quite low in occurence as only the 12Z HRRR shows any organized convection. Trends will need to be monitored over the next forecast cycle before confidence increases at all. Beyond the chance for storms, tomorrow will be cooler than the past week with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s. These temperatures will continue into the week with highs climbing back towards 90F by mid-to-late week as another ridge builds into the central and western CONUS. However, dew points will not be as high as the past week, residing in the upper 60s. This will keep heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria. There are also several broad brush chances for precipitation throughout the second half of the week, however, global and ensemble model guidance are not in good agreement with the upper-level progression, so confidence remains low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The activity from KS moving east through the morning has become more organized as it moves across the area primarily impacting many of TAF site location, particularly from KMKC and KIXD as the stronger thunderstorms with lightning having been moving through KIXD and southward over the past hour. While confidence in KSTJ with -TSRA and kept them in prob30 but there could be a potential. However kept the tempo groups in from 18z-20z for the KMCI, KMKC and KIXD, especially as this initial line moves through. I have kept a prob30 for these locations from 20z-23z as the storms moving along and south of KMHK continue to move east. Guidance did not resolve the activity well, but expect these showers to continue through TAFs sites through 23z. Have lower confidence in the development from 20-23z especially after the the storms shift east of the TAF sites this by 20z. Expect visibility to improve with VFR after 00z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.