textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Muggy conditions continue today and heat index values once again approach 100F for most.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning (10- 20%) along and west of the MO/KS state line. More rain is possible this afternoon and evening (10-20%). Pulse like storms with localized heavy downpours possible. No severe weather is anticipated.

- Thunderstorms chances expand Thursday especially during the afternoon through overnight (30% AM to 70% PM). Once again heavy downpours are expected with marginal strong to severe storm chances.

- Cooler conditions are expected to move in Saturday (low to mid 80s) with temperatures warming back toward seasonal normals (90s) next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Never underestimate the power of warm air advection, and apparently, the same goes for moisture advection. Obs Tuesday showed dew points toping 80 degrees in several areas in part because a boundary from Tuesday morning convection regressed a little further northward than initially anticipated. Showers and cloud cover also dissipated slightly faster opening up the opportunity for temperatures to warm slightly higher, especially across far northern MO.

The overall weather pattern remains consistent with what we have seen the past few days. Satellite and 500mb analysis show the eastern quadrants of the ridge centered over northern NM have retreated further west. This has opened up the flow for shortwaves across the area as well as displace potential ridge running thunderstorm complexes more westward. A surface high descending from east central Canada across the region works to keep these waves west of the area overnight although some models have been extending precipitation chances are far east as the MO/KS state line early this morning; therefore, have kept a few PoPs across the far west of the area. Some storms have formed over NE KS as of writing and we will have to continue monitoring them and the environment to see how they evolve through the early morning hours. Additional shortwaves are expected later this afternoon and evening which may initiate some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Placement of these storms remains a little uncertain as they are expected to be more pulse like in nature. Models scatter these showers across the area, but most show higher probabilities in far NW MO. However, if the high is able to build in more substantially, chances for showers and storms later today lessen.

Chances for showers and storms increase through the day Thursday as the gradient between a leeward low in western KS and a surface high across the southern Great Lakes compresses. This entices low level convergence and lift leading to the more widespread showers and storms. Convective variable remain rather muted at this time limiting concerns for strong to severe storms, but instability of ~2000 J/kg with bulk shear around 25 knots does present a marginal risk for a strong to severe storm.

As the weekend approaches, a substantial shortwave trough descends from interior Canada and looks to bring greater chances for showers and storms as well as cooler conditions across the area. Acceleration of low level flow ahead of the trough quickly pushes warm air and moisture into the region. This pushes PWAT values up to 1.5 to 2 inches which presents and environment favorable for heavy rainfall. Large scale instability and lapse rates are somewhat limited curtailing much of the strong to severe concerns at this time. As storms depart Friday evening, cooler air pushes in behind and highs Saturday only reach the low to mid 80s. Early next week another ridge settles in across the Great Lakes which pushes temperatures back upward toward seasonal normals. Extended guidance shows the synoptic ridges across the southern CONUS weakening enabling the northern jet stream to sag southward potentially bringing a more dynamic pattern further south into the CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the vast majority of the period. Isolated SHRA is possible south of I-70 across KS this AM with most activity staying west. Additional SHRA/TSRA is possible later this afternoon and evening, but coverage is expected to be very isolated. There remains much uncertainty on where storms may develop.

Winds remain generally out of the SE before becoming more southerly late. There is likely to be some haze from smoke aloft outside of storms, no surface FU impacts are anticipated.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.