textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Development of afternoon showers/storms across the area today and into the evening, greater chance for showers/storms (70-90%) beginning late tomorrow morning.

- Low confidence in severe potential Monday, greater confidence in severe potential Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Active pattern through the remainder of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Rain from this morning has mostly cleared out of the area, with a persistent band of rain over northern Missouri beginning to clear out towards the northeast through the afternoon. Lingering saturation and warming temperatures under a clearing sky leads to some concern with afternoon/evening storms, with overall low-level instability supported by the presence of pop-up showers near the warm front in KC Metro. However, with less robust forcing provided by the warm front, lower overall shear in the vertical profile, and lower lapse rates in the mid- levels, confidence is not high in organized, surface based convection. If storms can form, they would be elevated, with primary hazards being strong winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall in stronger storms. CAMs still struggle to identify a primary area of thunderstorm formation, but paintballs through the HREF members show a primary cluster of composite reflectivity >40 dBZ across northwestern MO/northeastern KS. This could be in relation to the strengthening LLJ, where this region is positioned under the right entrance of the jet and could see enhanced synoptic lift alongside strengthening low- level shear profiles. With these factors in mind, overall confidence remains low (10-30%) in this solution. Otherwise, the day will remain unseasonably warm as the warm front lifts northward, with sunnier skies and some errant gusts of 20-25 mph across the area as amplified ridging builds over the region.

A closed upper level trough situated over the West Coast will eject several shortwaves into the Plains, with a shortwave riding over the southern Plains providing us our next chance at precipitation tomorrow morning. Model trends have increasingly placed this band of precipitation further southeast, with greater ascent noted over central/southeastern MO as the shortwave rides along the ridge. Enhanced moisture transport with predominantly south/southwesterly flow from the subtropical high will provide the opportunity for enhanced rainfall, with forecast PWAT values in the range of 1.5-1.75 inches. The band appears progressive enough that flooding concerns with excessive rainfall are low at this time, but any training precipitation could exacerbate present saturation from previous rainfall. Rain will quickly clear out Sunday evening behind amplified ridging going into Monday.

By Monday, another shortwave will eject off the upper level trough progressing further into the West Coast, with its coincident surface low traversing over the Plains. Ample instability, enhanced low/mid-level lapse rates, and adequate shear profiles creates concern for severe weather potential during the day Monday. However, forecasts have consistently shown a strong capping inversion over the area during the day, which would inhibit the formation of any storms. Additionally, there has not been an adequate forcing mechanism (synoptic support, surface boundary...) in forecast models to initiate convection, evidenced by an overall lack of forecast reflectivity during the day and evening Monday. With this in mind, will have to keep a close eye on forecast trends leading up to the event. Through the remainder of Monday, the shortwave and its coincident surface low will exit off towards the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Going into Tuesday, the upper level trough will continue to progress eastward, with a coincident surface low developing over the Plains. The threat for severe weather this day relative to Monday is greater with a weaker forecasted capping inversion over a favorable environment (ample low-level instability, enhanced low/mid-level lapse rates, strong environmental shear) with greater synoptic forcing from the low level shortwave and developing LLJ. The development of severe storms in this environment would be easier relative to Monday, and the potential for all severe hazards would be present with this system Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Wednesday, a more robust surface low with the progressing upper level trough will again create conditions favorable for severe weather, with greater synoptic forcing coincident with modest instability. By Thursday, amplified ridging will again build behind the retreating upper-level trough, providing a short reprieve from the greater precipitation pattern before another upper level trough progressing over the Rockies and its associated shortwave disturbances brings back overall precipitation chances through the end of the week. Forecast models begin to diverge in the placement of the overall precipitation pattern by this point in the forecast, so future forecasts will need to monitor this timeframe for better agreement on precipitation placement, especially relevant to the previous few days' precipitation patterns with showers/storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1154 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Southerly winds will continue to be around 15 kts through the overnight before becoming gusty by mid-morning. A few gusts are possible with some decaying showers that are moving into the area. The best chances for these gusts are at KMCI and KMKC, but can't rule out a few errant gusts at KIXD and KSTJ through the early morning. Widespread showers are expected to move into the area from south to north through the morning hours. These showers will be accompanied by reduced visibilities and MVFR CIGs. CIGs may further lower to IFR through the morning (with the exception of KSTJ), however, confidence in this is not high enough to include prevailing IFR as of now. As precipitation exits to the east, CIGs should improve to MVFR before eventually scattering out through the late afternoon and evening hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.