textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rain/severe weather threat through 7 PM primarily confined to our far southern areas (Linn, Bates, Henry, Pettis, and Cooper Counties), but storms may end up forming just south of the forecast area.

- Below normal temperatures expected throughout the week with highs generally in the 70s to around 80.

- Most areas will be dry Monday through Thursday with only a few small 20-30% chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight...

A cold front will continue to race southeast across the forecast area this afternoon. This cold front will be the focusing mechanism for thunderstorm redevelopment. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate by 3-4 PM, but by the time the storms really get going the front will be across our southern tier of counties or possibly even south of our forecast area. Consequently, the threat for heavy rain will be focused along our southern most counties or just south of our forecast area. Decided to keep the flood watch going for our southern most counties until after the cold front tracks south of our area, which should be prior to the 7 PM expiration time.

There is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the storms that form along the front later this evening (Linn, Bates, Henry, Pettis, and Cooper Counties). However, as mentioned earlier, thunderstorms may end up forming just south of our area or not really take off in strength until exiting to our southeast. Will still need to monitor for thunderstorms all areas along and south of the front this afternoon/early evening until after the front exits our area. Surface winds continue to veer ahead of the cold front limiting low level and deep layer shear (~30 kts and decreasing). MLCAPE values are adequate for severe weather, around 1,500 J/KG. Overall, its a pretty marginal set up for severe weather and over a very limited portion of our area (far south), for a limited window until the front passes through (~3-6 PM).

Dry weather is then expected tonight behind the cold front as drier/cooler air filters into the region.

Monday and Tuesday...

There is high confidence in great weather with below normal summer time temperatures (highs mainly in the 70s) and dry conditions. Forecast models have high temperatures tightly clustered in the mid 70s Monday and upper 70s Tuesday for most areas including the KC metro area.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Overall the upper pattern will be progressive and fairly zonal with weak/subtle waves passing through the area. These short waves will bring generally small chances of precipitation until the wave pattern can be better timed out as we get closer. There are off and on chances for precipitation beginning Tuesday night, but currently the most favored period for precipitation is Thursday night into Friday with the highest POPs across the forecast area around 50%. We expect warmer near to above normal temperatures to return next weekend with highs back in the mid 80s to around 90 with above normal confidence in this next weekend warmth for being a 6-7 day forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Increasing cloud cover from the north with MVFR ceilings expected. Clouds persist through the overnight period with guidance suggesting a 60-70% chance of IFR conditions before day break. Afterwards, clouds will scatter out by mid morning with VFR conditions through the afternoon. Winds will begin out of the north to start the forecast period and veer to the northeast by tomorrow afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.