textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Misty and foggy conditions dissipate early this morning.

- Sunshine returns this afternoon with above normal temperatures this weekend.

- Additional rainfall is expected Monday. Impacts are expected to be similar to what we saw the past couple days.

- The Thanksgiving holiday looks to be relatively chilly, but otherwise limited weather concerns. There is the potential for impactful storms the weekend after, but confidence is too low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The low pressure system which brought a gray and rainy Friday across the area has accelerated eastward. Rain has dissipated to mist and fog through the overnight. A push of cooler, drier air combined with a 500mb ridge building across the region looks to break fog and clouds apart before sunrise. This reintroduces sunshine throughout the area. Normally a push of cooler air would lower expected high temperatures; however, a pocket of warmer air across eastern MT and WY transits behind the cooler air which when combined with clearing skies and solar heating keeps highs in the upper 50s to low 60s through the weekend.

A strong low off the SW California coast become our next weather feature for the beginning of Thanksgiving week. This system is expected to move on shore through the day Saturday before taking a sharp northeast track through the Rockies. A lee trough develops across western KS which accelerates flow of warm southerly air and Gulf moisture. Broad CVA, embedded shortwaves, and isentropic ascent across the warm sector develop showers from central TX into SE NE. As the lee cyclone deepens, rain moves into our area late Sunday into early Monday morning. It is expected for conditions to be somewhat similar yesterday's rain where most will experience showers with some embedded heavy downpours. More convective activity looks to be concentrated toward the I-44 corridor and points SW. However, it would not be entirely surprising for an isolated rumble of thunder across mainly south of I-70 during the day as well as far NW MO later in the evening. Our positioning to the direct east of the low pressure center combined with a SW to NE orientation of the 500mb jet max as well as the lack of general instability or frontal system just do not present the most favorable convective environment. This environment becomes slightly more favorable for far NE MO as the low quickly lunges into souther IA Monday night. Some downpours are possible as ample shear and PWATs in excess of 1 inch could entice some efficient heavy rain fall. This could make another significant contribution toward the seasonal precipitation deficit which still sits at 3" at KMCI since Sept 1 even though 1.4 inches of rain fell Friday.

A push of cold, dry Canadian air moves into the region in the wake of Monday's low pressure passage. This cooler air mass slowly filters its way in Tuesday before strong northwest 500mb flow accelerates the push of cold air which sticks through the Thanksgiving holiday. High temperatures Wednesday sink from the 50s and 60s to the 40s with overnight lows below freezing. The good news is this steady northwesterly flow will make any Thanksgiving travel into the region rather worry free from a weather perspective. The biggest potential concern I see at this point is the chance for gusty winds adding a further chill to the air this holiday. Extended guidance does indicate a potential for a potentially impactful storm system to develop which may affect return travel, but uncertainty remains very high, and we will need to see multiple forecast iterations before placing more confidence in potential storms late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Fog and mist dissipate through the morning hours. A low cloud shield sits just south of KIXD extending through KIRK and points south. Airfields with low CIGs should see CIGs lift through the morning. There is a chance this low deck could build back northward bringing a brief period of MVFR CIGs this morning; however, it is anticipated coverage will break up as CIGs lift. Sky coverage is expected to open up late morning to midday as winds become more west southwesterly through the afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.