textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple Rounds of Showers & Storms through tonight. Flooding along area rivers, creeks and stream expected. Localized flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The heavy rain potential will continue through tonight, however the biggest forecast change is that axis of heaviest precipitation continues to trend further south. This may prove helpful in mitigating flooding across northeast Kansas in northern Missouri where 1.5 up to 4 inches has already fallen and several area rivers, creeks, and streams are forecast to rise, or are already in minor to moderate flood. It is here an additional 0.50-1.50" of precipitation is still expected to fall. The heavier rainfall amounts today through tonight are expected to fall along and south of the Missouri River where widespread 1-3" of precipitation is forecast with locally higher amounts possible. Despite the heavier precipitation falling south of the current watch, an expansion is not anticipated at this time considering 3-hr flash flood guidance is 2.5 to 4 inches and 6-hour flash flood guidance is between 3-5 inches along and south of the Missouri River. As such widespread flooding is not expected although localized flooding cannot be ruled out.

Today, a closed upper level low over the southern High Plains this morning will slowly move into the central Plains by this evening. Several lead shortwave will eject out ahead of this feature into the local area. This will bring the potential for several rounds of showers and storms. An attendant cold front will slowly sink across the forecast area and will be the focus for heavier precipitation. Additional lift and moisture transport will also come courtesy of a persistent SSWly 35-40kt LLJ. All this, coupled with PWATs ranging in the 2.00"-2.25" range, which is in the 100th percentile range for early October, will lead to very efficient rainfall. Tonight, the closed low upper low will open up into a open wave over the eastern Plains and move through the local area tonight, this will bring one more round of heavier rain the to area and force the cold front southeast of the CWA. Highs today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Beyond tonight, the forecast looks mainly dry for the next week. High pressure will build into the area tomorrow behind the system that exits the area tonight. This will provide cooler conditions with highs in the 60s. The surface ridge of high pressure will remain in control on Saturday with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Sunday a upper level ridge will become more amplified over the southwestern CONUS. This will aid in providing subtle height rises over the local area allowing highs to rise into the 70s. Monday a surface ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the Canadian Plains cooling temperatures back into the mid 60s to mid 70s. A warming trend is expected through the middle of next week as height rises aid in temperatures rising back into the low 70s to lower 80s by Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

MVFR CIGs are expected at all four terminals to start the TAF period, although it would not be surprising to see CIGs bouncing around anywhere from IFR to VFR as has been observed through the morning. There are some showers that are starting to form along the cold front in NW MO that will gradually spread south through the afternoon with the progression of the front. The best chances for thunderstorms will be mid-to-late afternoon and have continued the TEMPO group to account for that (aside from KSTJ). MVFR CIGs are expected to prevail through this period of showers, however, it is not out of the question that some periods of IFR CIGs are observed. Looking at upstream obs in Nebraska, winds look gusty behind the front. Expecting CIGs to improve overnight with similar timing to the end of the precipitation, but the gusts should continue through the morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.