textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and possibly a few storms late tonight and early Tuesday morning. Severe weather threat is very low.

- Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non- thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts possibly exceeding 45 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A weak cold front is set to swing through the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. Isentropic ascent/warm advection attendant to a modest low level jet will foster at least scattered showers across the area. Forecast soundings also hint at some weak mid level instability to where some rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out. The precipitation should diminish by mid morning if not earlier with the passage of the front and waning LLJ. Tuesday afternoon into evening looks to be drying out once again, as the cold front settles south of the CWA and eventually stalls beneath weak low level ridging/subsidence.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A strengthening LLJ and strong moist transport ahead of a deepening trough and attendant 100+ m height falls spreading through the Northern Plains should foster convection late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Some convection is possible into northern Missouri with the veering jet, but the brunt of the storms are expected further north across Iowa where some potential for an organized MCS exists pending extent of BL moisture/instability. For Wednesday afternoon we'll be watching for the potential of storms ahead of a cold front. Ample deep layer shear 40-50 kt 0-6km bulk shear and plenty of instability 3000-4000+ CAPE exists to support supercells with all hazards potential by mid to late afternoon as MLCIN weakens along a sagging cold front. Some uncertainty still exists on areal coverage of storms with a more veered low level flow. This veering could also prove helping in possibly limiting the tornado potential, at least the potential for rather sustained potential limiting inflow and offering more cold RFD dominance. Storms could evolve into a broken line of which could transition to wind and potential for a brief spin-up tornado before this all works it way out of the area by mid evening.

A bout of surface high pressure and W/NW flow aloft should lead to a rather pleasant and dry end to the week.

This weekend though the pattern continues to support a return of active weather with another round of periodic waves being shuttled across the Plains and Midwest. Abundant moisture and deep layer shear will foster some threat for severe storms with heavy rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

High pressure centered over eastern MO continues pushing eastward this hour. A cool front will move through our area around daybreak Tuesday, bringing a brief window of stronger winds aloft...but not quite to LLWS criteria. These winds should help spawn scattered showers and storms just ahead of the front. Winds will become more northwesterly behind the front and conditions should improve quickly.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.