textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected this week, with highs approaching 90 degrees by Friday.

- Chance (15 to 30%) for storms Tuesday afternoon and evening. A few of these could be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

H5 analysis shows troughing across the eastern CONUS, with ridging over much of the western CONUS and a shortwave trough moving into the Northern Plains, resulting in continued northwesterly flow aloft across the CWA. At the surface, a weak boundary is analyzed across northeastern Missouri, extending back to the northwest and connecting to a 1002 mb surface low over southern Saskatchewan. With higher mid level heights building in from the western ridge, temperatures today will be quite a bit warmer than yesterday, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s and 10 to 15 mph southwesterly winds.

The aforementioned shortwave trough currently across the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains will dig into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow and eventually into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow evening, sending a cold front toward our CWA from the northwest. Warm air and moisture advection ahead of this system will help send temperatures into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow afternoon along with dew points rising into the low to mid 50s and SSW winds gusting up to 30 mph. The front should enter into far NW Missouri by mid Tuesday afternoon, into the KC metro by the evening, and through the CWA by around midnight. 12z SPC HREF shows a narrow corridor of up to around 1250 J/kg of SB CAPE out ahead of the approaching front, along with around 40 knots of deep layer bulk shear. Low level lapse rates should steepen ahead of the front, yielding inverted V soundings and a damaging wind potential. Additionally, modestly steep mid level lapse rates may support a marginally severe hail threat, as well. However, despite the decent parameter space for strong to severe storms, forcing remains better to our northeast, and strongly veered surface winds should limit convergence along the front and may not be enough to yield convective initiation. CAMs continue to not really convect along the front in our CWA, with only 20 to 30 percent PoPs in the current forecast.

Temperatures should be cooler on Wednesday behind the front as surface high pressure builds in and we remain on the western periphery of longwave troughing across the eastern CONUS. However, temperatures should rebound quickly as shortwave upper ridging moves back in from the west, with highs in the upper 80s to perhaps even the lower 90s for Friday through Sunday. By Friday night into Saturday, guidance suggests a shortwave trough moving into the Southern Plains, yielding southwesterly deep layer flow. On Sunday, yet another shortwave is projected to move into the Northern Plains. This will result in low end PoPs (20 to 40 percent) for much of the weekend. This trough is progged to move into the Upper Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night, potentially bringing another cold front through the region and increasing PoPs to 50 to 60 percent. NBM guidance continues to run a little warm, and forecast MaxTs for Friday through Sunday may still be too warm, especially with the potential for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions under generally clear skies should persist through the period. Southwest winds around 10 knots this afternoon should become more southerly (around 200 degrees) by this evening, remaining around 10 knots. SW winds should begin gusting to around 22 knots by 8 to 10z Tuesday, with gusts up to 26 knots by 14z Tuesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.