textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong system will affect the region Wednesday night and Thursday, with precipitation chances (30-60%) and strong winds (>70% chance of 45-mph wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening) the primary impacts.

- Fire-weather concerns will be elevated on Thursday afternoon with the strong winds forecast, especially if wetting rainfall does not occur.

- Wind chills will drop to the single digits and teens on Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Main forecast concerns today continue to revolve around the strong system affecting the northern/central U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday.

Today's weather is decidedly pleasant, with temperatures in the 50s and a southwest breeze. A surface ridge will move across the area tonight, with winds calming after sunset and temperatures dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s by daybreak. Model soundings are not overly impressive for fog formation, but I do expect the favorable low-lying spots and river valleys to feature some patchy fog late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Another balmy and quiet day is expected Wednesday, with most areas well into the 50s once again.

A strong system will then affect much of the northern/central Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. A deep surface low will trek near the Canadian border Wednesday and Wednesday night, bringing a breezy afternoon/evening to the region as the surface pressure gradient increases rapidly during this period. This will keep temperatures unusually mild Wednesday night (overnight temperatures near average highs for this time of year). With substantial warm/moist advection and strong deep-layer lift via strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection, the quick pace of the system will be the main/only limiting factor in bringing us more substantial precipitation. However, models continue to trend stronger and wetter with the system, with PoPs noticeably increasing to 30-60+ percent across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Forcing may be so strong and low-level mixing sufficient that some marginal instability is generated, especially in far southern and eastern portions of the forecast area. Still cannot rule out a rumble of thunder as the showers move through during this time, though chances are still pretty low (generally less than 15%).

However, the showers will be working with very strong wind profiles, so any downward momentum generated by the (shallow) convection may be sufficient to produce some strong wind gusts as they move through. Regardless of that threat, winds will be cranking as colder/drier air surges into the region Thursday. Model soundings continue to suggest advisory-level wind gusts will be reached during this period, and ensemble probabilities have increased (as expected), with a 50-80 percent chance of 45-mph gusts in much of the area Thursday afternoon and early evening. One concern with such strong winds and a very dry past few months is fire-weather potential. Though this could be curtailed to some degree by rain showers in the morning, forecast rainfall amounts are still light (mainly less than a quarter inch, and barely measurable south and west of KC). With such strong winds forecast, critical fire-weather conditions may occur despite marginal relative-humidity values. Additionally, if the southwestern CWA stays dry, I suspect forecast RH will need to be lowered Thursday afternoon given the very strong mixing expected. This will need to be watched closely.

The winds will diminish on Thursday night, but not before the colder air surges in to create an uncomfortably cold night across the area. Wind chills will likely reach the single digits or low teens for much of the region.

Thereafter, the pattern returns to status quo, with west- northwest mid/upper flow and a ridge nosing into much of the southern U.S. Some fast-moving and low-amplitude systems will move through the northern U.S. in this regime, but these will be moisture-starved and will generate little appreciable lift in our region for any noteworthy precipitation chances. With the gradual building ridge to our south, temperatures should warm to well above average levels on Saturday. Despite the passage of the aforementioned low-amplitude perturbations (one on Sunday, for example), any temperature drops should briefly take us to near-average values (upper 30s to low 40s for highs) before a quick rebound to 10-15+ degrees above average a day or two later. PoPs are unmentionable Friday through Tuesday, which is bad news given our ongoing drought.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 445 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. There will be a few passing high clouds overnight with an increase in cloud cover on the horizon for next TAF period. Light southwest winds become light and variable for most of this period, with light south winds returning by midday Wednesday. Spotty fog potential around sunrise is being monitored, but probabilities are currently too low for inclusion in the TAF.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.