textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue into this morning, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible.

- A few isolated storms may be possible this afternoon along the passing cold front, with a conditional low end risk for a strong storm or two.

- Very windy conditions are expected later this morning into this afternoon, with southwesterly winds gusting up to 35 to 40 mph.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with all severe hazards possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the mid/upper trough axis extending north to south across roughly the KS/CO border and into the OK/TX Panhandles, with this trough beginning to take on a bit of a negative tilt. At the surface, the warm front extends eastward from the surface low across west central Kansas, roughly along Interstate 70. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing, but the severe threat has diminished significantly. Significant rainfall amounts have fallen across portions of our southern and southeastern zones, with a corridor of roughly 4 to 6 inches from the Rich Hill area toward Chilhowee. The surface low will move to the northeast through the overnight hours into far NE KS by around 7 am and into far southern Iowa by around 1 pm, with the warm front lifting northward through the remainder of the CWA overnight tonight. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms should continue into Thursday morning, coming to an end from west to east. Very strong southwesterly winds should arrive by later this morning out ahead of the approaching surface low and cold front, with sustained winds on the order of 25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph continuing into Thursday afternoon. Gusts may approach of even exceed 45 mph toward portions of NE Missouri this afternoon, so have issued a small wind advisory to account for this.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon along the trailing cold front, especially closer to the surface low across northern and northeastern Missouri. With roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE and around 40 knots of deep layer shear, cannot rule out some better organized updrafts capable of producing severe weather. Also, with some decent effective SRH and right curved hodographs, there will be a non-zero tornado threat. This has prompted SPC to included much of the CWA within a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon, with a small sliver toward NE MO within a slight risk. However, 00z HREF guidance is not particularly excited about the threat for severe weather in our CWA this afternoon, keeping better chances northeast of the region into eastern Iowa.

By Friday morning, a closed H5 low is projected to be centered over eastern Wyoming, sliding into South Dakota by Friday afternoon, with the trough axis extending southward into the central Plains and sending a belt of 40 to 50 knot H5 southwesterly winds over the CWA. Meanwhile, at the surface, the low should take a track not too dissimilar from the track of the current surface low - from west central KS into far SW Iowa by Friday evening, pulling a warm front north through the CWA through the afternoon hours of Friday and a trailing cold front extending to the southwest through NW Missouri into eastern KS by around 7 PM Friday. The convective environment on Friday afternoon across the open warm sector should be characterized by moderate instability (2000 J/kg of ML CAPE), strong deep layer shear (40 to 50 knots of effective bulk shear), steep mid level lapse rates, only a modest cap at 850 mb, and substantial effective SRH and right curving hodographs. This would support supercells capable of all severe hazards, but that is only if cells are able to initiate across the open warm sector. What is more likely is storms initiating along the surface cold front by late Friday afternoon. Storms may start out at least semi discrete, but storms will likely grow upscale relatively quickly into a line, becoming primarily a wind threat. However, there will likely be embedded supercellular features within the line, and also with 40 knots of 0-3 km shear, mesovortices will be very much possible, especially in areas where the shear vector becomes normal to the line. The front should move west to east across the CWA, exiting to the east by late Friday night. Given the likely progressive nature of the line, think widespread heavy rainfall is unlikely. However, isolated locations could pick up 1 to 2" of rain, and if any heavy rain moves over locations that have been impacted by heavy rain Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, there could be some flash flooding issues.

Cooler temperatures are expected on Saturday behind the front with gusty northwesterly winds. Warmer temperatures and calmer winds start to ease back in by Sunday into Monday, with 30 to 40% chance for rain showers on Monday night into Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers should finally clear east of the terminals by around 13z to 14z this morning. Southerly winds are expected to increase within the next hour or two, with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds should then become southwesterly by around 16z this morning, with sustained winds on the order of 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots. Winds then turn westerly behind a passing cold front by mid afternoon, with gusts up to 25 knots continuing. Finally, winds should relax by around 1z tonight, becoming north westerly. A few brief periods of MVFR CIGs will be possible this morning, but otherwise VFR conditions are likely through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ017-021>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ008-016-017-024-025-032-033. KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ057-060- 103>105.