textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Below normal temperatures expected through Monday.

* Chance of minor snow accumulations across eastern Kansas Saturday morning. Chance of accumulating snow decreases further east into central Missouri as moisture becomes more scarce.

* Above normal temperatures with dry conditions return Tuesday and continue through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

995 mb low over northern Illinois continues to pinwheel towards the western Great Lakes with near surface cold air advection waning on the back side of the low. Clearing skies will lead to fairly strong mixing for this time of year with unidirectional winds in the mixed layer. As a result, should see a decent temperature recovery through the afternoon hours though temperatures in most locations will remain a few degrees below normal. Winds are expected to gradually decrease as the pressure gradient slackens across the region, leading to lower fire weather concerns this afternoon than the past few days.

Shortwave in the base of the upper trough across the western US is expected to shift east today building into central US Saturday morning. Consistent saturation within the dendritic layer looks to become increasingly difficult the further east the wave goes. Models also continue to indicate limited amounts of surface moisture, which will eat away at the potential for snow accumlations on Saturday morning. HREF probabilities for accumulating snow are generally in the 40-50 percent range across eastern Kansas, but quickly tail off farther east and quickly drop to near zero for amounts greater than a few tenths of an inch. Cold air advection behind the departing wave will once again keep temperatures slightly below seasonal norms, something that has rarely been seen this month. Below normal temperatures continue Sunday into Monday as northerly flow remains and becomes reinforced by a moisture starved clipper type wave dropping into the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures quickly rebound Tuesday onward on the heels of mid height rises, surging 850mb temps, and persistent southerly surface flow. This will push temperatures back well above normal into the 50s and 60s across the area. Deterministic guidance, and largely their accompanying ensembles, are in good agreement of a northern stream shortwave/clipper dropping through the Northern/Central Plains Wednesday/Thursday. Fortunately, the clipper is progged to lack a significantly colder air mass, resulting in continuation of seasonally above normal temperatures through the end of next week. Precipitations chances with this system remain more up in the air and on the low end over the area with strongest/deepest lift currently anticipated northward of the state. Regardless, temperatures would keep any precipitation of the liquid variety.

Above normal temperatures return to the region Tuesday and beyond as upper level ridge across the west expands east.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR ceilings have cleared out of the area, leaving VFR conditions in their wake. General expectation for VFR to prevail through the remaining TAF period, including easing NW/N winds. After 06z, increasing low-mid level cloud cover may yield some very light snow as a quick scooting shortwave moves through, but is expected to struggle to produce much snow (visibility reductions) within a very dry environment.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.