textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light precipitation possible today across northern Missouri- though little in the way of accumulation is expected.

* Arctic airmass is expected Saturday. Accumulating snow is likely across northern Missouri, setting the stage for subzero temperatures Saturday night as skies clear. Light north winds could produce wind chills of -15 to -20 F across northeast Missouri Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Weak area of low pressure near Fort Peck Lake in eastern Montana as of 09Z this morning is expected to build southeast throughout the day. Warm front associated with this system is expected to lift northeast across the region today leading to mild temperatures roughly south of a line from Marysville to Booneville. Farther north, temperatures will remain in the 30s. As the mid level wave build southeast, could see some light precipitation across Iowa spilling into eastern Missouri potentially clipping Schuyler County in northern Missouri. With temperatures in the 30s and a dry sub cloud layer, precipitation type is a bit of a question mark but think column would evaporatively cool to largely support very light snow. With that said, sustained saturation in the dendritic layer is very limited. Best chance for snow is during the afternoon hours today, but will be fighting dry air in the low levels.

Surface low is expected to track across the region tonight with northwesterly flow developing behind the departing wave on Friday. Temperatures on Friday are expected to be slightly below normal with 925 hpa temperatures -2 to -5 C yielding highs in the 30s.

A more dynamic set up this weekend as air from the Northwest Territories plunges southward into the Central US. The leading edge of the arctic airmass provides adequate lift to lead to a light-moderate snow event across northern Missouri. A band of strong 750 frontogenetic forcing north of a line from Maryville to Moberly is expected to develop on Saturday enhanced by a kissing jet structure. As the arctic air build into the region, the dendritic layer builds in depth from the surface towards 600 mb. This very efficient snow process will easily generate accumulating snow across northern into eastern Missouri. LREF ensemble is suggesting ~0.1- 0.2" of precipitation underneath the band. Snow liquid ratios are currently 15-18:1, but with the developing deep dendritic layer, the potential of seeing 20-25:1 ratios is there. This fresh snow cover will set the stage for the coldest night of the season so far Saturday night into Sunday morning. Currently, am forecasting sub- zero temperatures over the fresh snow cover northeast of the KC metro, but with 925 hpa temperatures plunging towards -15 to -20C, widespread lows in the single digits looks likely. With the impacts of the fresh snow cover and the lingering light north winds, could see wind chills of -15 to -20 F across northeast Missouri.

A warming trend is expected Sunday into next week as upper level ridge across the west builds east. Temperatures are expected to return above normal regionwide by Tuesday of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR cloud cover is expected for most of the area during the 18z TAF period. With a low pressure moving through expecting winds to shift over the next 18-24 hours. Some patchy fog may be possible early Friday morning, but current high resolution guidance is not showing an overly strong signal.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.