textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Chance (25-35%) for sprinkles across northern MO this morning before shower/storm chances (50-65%) return Friday afternoon along and south of I-70.

* Friday PM storms in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being large hail and damaging winds.

* Additional rain potential (45-55%) late Saturday PM/early Sunday AM.

* Warming trend expected early next week with widespread 80+ degree temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Current (2 AM CDT) 500-hPa analysis shows a high amplitude ridge over the Pacific Coast with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. As a result, the Central Plains is situated under northwesterly flow aloft. Weak pressure gradients at the surface have allowed winds to become light and variable in direction. Temperatures are in the mid-to-upper 50s across the area with lows expected to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Clear skies are expected to fill in through the early morning hours as mid-level clouds stream in from the northwest associated with a weak shortwave. Model soundings across northern MO show relatively steep lapse rates (7-8 C/km) through the cloud layer, which paired with the shortwave, indicate that showers may be possible. However, a deep layer of dry air will remain present from the cloud bases to the surface, which will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. As such, have added a chance (25-35%) for some sprinkles through the morning across northern MO (primarily north of I-70) along and north of a slow moving cold front.

The cold front is expected to stall out near the I-70 corridor, providing the focus for the next chance for showers and storms later today (50-65% along and south of I-70). Southwesterly surface flow through the morning will bring some Gulf moisture into the southern portion of the CWA with dew points climbing from the mid-40s to the mid-50s by the afternoon along and south of I-70. This moisture return, along with temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 70s and the previously mentioned steep mid- level lapse rates, will allow 1000-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE to build by mid-afternoon. Aloft, another shortwave is progged to move through the longwave troughing pattern, bringing a quick hit of forcing to the Central Plains this afternoon. This sets the stage for showers and storms, primarily across southern MO, before the weak cold front sweeps across the remainder of the area this evening. However, the combination of morning cloud cover/sprinkles/showers potentially limiting the amount of instability that is able to build, along with the best upper- level support being south and west of the CWA creates some uncertainty in the coverage and magnitude of storms this afternoon. Most CAMs depict unorganized convection initiating around 20Z along and south of I-70 with cells becoming more organized as they exit the CWA to southeast. 35-45 kts of deep layer shear will allow the most organized storms to be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, which has led to a SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the southern portion of the area.

As the showers/storms exit the area this evening, temperatures will fall into the upper 40s areawide before southerly flow returns Saturday, driving highs into the low-to-mid 80s beneath mostly sunny skies. Saturday evening, another quick moving shortwave will propagate through the pattern, bringing another chance (45-55%) for showers and storms to the area. Dry air in the low-levels will limit the amount of instability that is able to build and the upper-level support is ill-timed to support the development of strong/severe storms. However, showers, along with a few rumbles of thunder, are still possible (45-55%) Saturday evening into the overnight hours.

A cold front will pass through the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, forcing the showers/storms out of the area. Persistent northerly flow behind the front will usher seasonable temperatures back into the area on Sunday with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This will be short lived, however, with the longwave trough shifting to the east Sunday into Monday and ridging building over the Plains through the early portions of the week. Mid-level height rises, along with southerly surface flow will drive highs into the mid-to-upper 70s on Monday and mid-80s on Tuesday. A brief reprieve may occur Wednesday as a shortwave moves north of the area Tuesday evening, pushing a cold front through. This, coincidentally, brings the next chance for precipitation, albeit a low chance (15-25% across northeastern MO).

Ridging again builds over the Central Plains on Thursday, persisting into the weekend. Highs are currently expected to push towards 90F for the first time since late March (which just sounds weird to say), however, model guidance shows some disagreements on whether the area will be directly beneath the ridge axis or on the periphery. This will play a role in both how warm the area will get and any precipitation chances that may occur with shortwaves moving through the flow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the TAF period. Light winds will persist through the overnight hours, however, strong southwesterly flow (35-40 kts) at 1000-2000 ft AGL will create a LLWS setup through the early morning hours at KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD. High clouds will be present through the day today with a few sprinkles/showers possible into the afternoon, particularly at KIXD. However, confidence in precipitation impacting the terminals is low at this time, so have opted not to include a mention in the TAFs. A wind shift to northwesterly is expected late this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.