textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south southwesterly winds are expected today through Thursday.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Thursday afternoon into Friday as a cold front is projected to move through the region.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms and locally moderate rainfall may be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Current H5 analysis shows high amplitude troughing across the eastern CONUS, troughing off the West Coast over the Pacific Ocean, and relatively high amplitude ridging across the western CONUS between the two troughs. Over our CWA, 50 knot northwesterly flow continues at the H5 level on the western edge of the eastern trough. At the surface, a cold front made its way southward through the region late yesterday evening into early this morning, with a 1028 mb surface high analyzed across the Upper Mississippi Valley. This has shifted surface winds to easterly, with clear skies and temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s for most locations, except for far NE Missouri where temperatures have dropped into the the 30s (Frost Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM for Putnam and Schuyler counties).

By later today, the aforementioned cold front that progressed through the CWA last night will lift back northward through the CWA as the surface highs slides eastward toward Lake Erie and low level flow turns south southwesterly and strengthens in response to 850 mb troughing extending from Manitoba/Ontario into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, at the H5 level, height rises will build in from the west as the eastern edge of the mid/upper ridge impinges on the region. This should send afternoon high temps into the mid 70s, usher in some moisture return with dew points rising from the mid 30s this morning to the mid 40s by late this afternoon, and increase south southwesterly surface winds to around 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

On Tuesday, a subtle shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft is progged to translate out of the Northern Plains and into the Midwest. This may generate some precipitation from far NE Missouri into SW Michigan Tuesday evening, but PoPs remain below 15 percent for our CWAs portion of NE Missouri. Otherwise, even warmer temperatures are likely on Tuesday, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 70s to even lower 80s (primarily NE KS and NW MO) and continued moisture return, with dew points rising into the mid 50s. Furthermore, enhanced southwesterly surface winds will continue, with sustained winds on the order of 15 to even 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

The western mid/upper trough is projected to enter into the western CONUS by Wednesday morning, reaching the Intermountain West by Wednesday afternoon with ridging continuing over our CWA downstream. Above normal temperatures and breezy southerly winds should continue, with highs in the mid to upper 70s.

The H5 low is progged to enter into the Northern Plains by early Thursday afternoon, with associated troughing extending southward into the Southern Plains and increased southwesterly deep layer flow overspreading the CWA. Meanwhile, a strong surface cyclone should enter the Dakotas by early Thursday afternoon, moving northeastward into southern Manitoba throughout Thursday afternoon and evening, with the attendant southward extending cold front approaching the CWA from the west.

Continued theta e advection should help dew points reach the low to mid 60s by Thursday afternoon/evening, and with a plume of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg of CAPE ahead of the approaching front and around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer bulk shear, organized updrafts capable of producing strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening/night. Storm mode may be initially discrete or semi discrete, but with mid level flow mostly parallel to the front, storms will likely grow upscale into one or more linear segments. While SPC maintains the 15% severe risk across the CWA for Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, some factors working against the potential for widespread severe weather across our CWA include only modest deep layer shear and somewhat skinny CAPE profiles, as well as a fairly high potential for a linear storm mode by the time storms enter into our area.

In addition to the severe potential, models suggest a plume of 1.25 to 1.5" PWATs ahead of the front, which may promote locally moderate rainfall. WPC continues to highlight the entire CWA within a marginal risk for excessive rainfall. The most recent NBM run gives around a 20% chance for rainfall to exceed 1" across NE KS into NW Missouri, with around a 50% chance across the KC metro, peaking at around 60% along a narrow corridor from Butler to Sedalia. The cold front should move through the region from northwest to southeast overnight Thursday night into Friday morning. PoPs linger through Friday afternoon before clearing the region to the east by Friday evening/night.

As we head into the weekend, models suggest the potential for a deepening closed mid/upper low developing over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest near the Canadian border, potentially phasing with another trough moving into the western CONUS and entering into the Plains. This would keep rain chances in the forecast, with the current forecast showing generally 30 to 40 percent PoPs from Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. Near normal temperatures (highs in the mid to upper 60s) are favored for Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF with clr skies giving way to sct high clouds aft 06Z-08Z. Winds will be out of the south btn around 15kts with gusts near 25kts thru 06Z-08Z when winds will become SSW btn 15-20kts with gusts to 25kts. Winds may decouple for a few hours around sunset and lose their gusts but they should quickly pick back up tonight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.