textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme heat continues. Temperatures once again push 100F and heat index values reach 110F - 120F. Overnight conditions remain uncomfortable. An Extreme Heat Warning continues through Tuesday morning.

- Limited opportunities for precipitation (~10-20%) return this afternoon across central MO. Additional rounds of mainly overnight showers and storms possible through the rest of the week.

- Gradual relative cooling through the week before a more substantial cool down next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Satellite imagery shows little movement in the expansive ridge over the eastern Rockies. Same goes for the midlevel ridge across the Gulf coast. Surface winds out of the southwest boosted by enhanced low level flow into the region maintains a steady stream of warm air advection. Shortwave troughs aloft have been consistently pummeling the ridge slowly redirecting upper level flow to more northerly. This has been advecting drier air into the area which has reduced our dew points from near 80 to the upper 70s. Ironically, this might increase our chances of reaching triple digits today as less energy is required to heat up drier air compared to saturated air. Highs today look more likely to reach triple digits with HREF ensembles showing 70-90 percent chances of patches of 100F air temperatures along and west of the I-29/I-49 corridors. This also results in a zero sum of heat index values with the increase in temperatures negating the decrease in dew points. Heat index values around 110F- 115F with areas of 120F expected. Overnight lows once again reside in the upper 70s Monday into Tuesday.

As mentioned previously, passing shortwave troughs have been gradually weakening the ridge's hold on the area. Over time, this creates more exposure to pockets of cyclonic vorticity advection which brings the potential for isolated shower and thunderstorm development. Guidance was proposing the first opportunity for this early this morning; however, observations have been less favorable for anything more than an isolated shower occurring. The next substantial opportunity is late this afternoon as a more significant shortwave traverses IL with the boundary extending as far west as KC. Deterministic guidance is a little more confident in showers coupling the previously mentioned trough across the Great Lakes. CAM guidance is a little less optimistic about storm development, but does paint the potential for some storms to spread as far west as Higgensville. This may work to quickly lower heat indices later this afternoon across central MO, but confidence remains fairly low at this time. The good news is this passing trough does introduce some "cooler air" into the region. Highs Tuesday reside in the low 90s with heat indices looking to top out around 100F sans the far south of the region where heat index values up to 105F are possible.

Looking further, the established upper level high remains planted across the Rocky Mountains which keeps the upper level relatively unchanged. However, shortwaves continue to transit the upper level flow, and the eastward expanse of the upper level ridge loses a little influence. Ridging at lower level moves eastward and opens up the potential for some more turbulent dynamics. Extended guidance manifests this a potential leeward midlevel troughs influenced by the upper level shortwaves mentioned earlier. This presents multiple opportunities for precipitation later in the forecast period, but it would be another example of everything coming together in the right place at the right time which adds some uncertainty. Consensus puts most of these precipitation opportunities during the overnight periods.

Overall, temperatures trend lower as drier and relatively cooler air flows into the region. Highs late week look to return into the upper 80s. Passing overnight convection may work to accelerate that cooling trend; although residual low level moisture from storms may not make it feel much cooler. Extended guidance does show the potential for a wholesale change in temperatures (at least for a little bit) next weekend as a synoptic scale front is progged to migrate through the central CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. FEW to SCT clouds are possible around 7000-10000ft. Winds remain generally SSW around 8-10 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.