textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Through 1 PM, temperatures across the region have pushed well into the upper 70s F, with a few lower 80s F reported south of the Missouri River. Surface analysis reveals a surface trough stretching from central Kansas into west-northwest Missouri. The associated surface boundary remains rather stalled along the MO/IA border. With the region well within the warm sector, the latest ACARS sounding from KMCI reveals a sharpened inversion around 850mb. At the surface, dew points have easily reached the lower 60s F and surface based CAPE computations place a broad swath of instability between 2500 to 3000 J/Kg from southeast KS across much of Missouri. With the capping inversion expected to hold strong and the lack of a focused forcing mechanism through the afternoon, convective development is expected to hold this afternoon.

This evening, beginning around 6 to 7 PM, with the push of the cold front toward the Missouri River providing focused forcing for ascent, convective initiation is expected from east central Kansas, south of the MO River and northeast into NE MO/SE IA. CAMS have hinted at this scenario much of the morning and this remains true through early this afternoon. The initial updrafts that develop will be isolated, supercellular structures, tapping into the available instability and shear environment. This would mean all modes of severe are possible, large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. The good news, given the mean wind will be oriented parallel to the front, storms are likely to cluster quickly, through 8 to 9 PM, forming into a more linear structure as storms move east-southeast with the advancing front. As this transition occurs, damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will become the more widespread hazard concern overnight. The risk for a spin up tornado cannot be ruled out, but any risk would be isolated. Strong the severe storms will push east and southeast of central Missouri through 2 to 3 AM.

Through the remainder of Wednesday morning, with the eastward advance of the upper low, across the Southern Plains, a broad baroclinic zone will develop with support from the LLJ, resulting in more widespread showers and storms across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. This activity will persist through Wednesday morning. Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will likely exist within the activity, potentially increasing localized flooding concerns.

For the remainder of the work week, temperatures will settled near normal, with highs in the 50s and lower 60s as high pressure settles through Thursday before a cold front passes Friday morning. Temperatures warm up into the 60s and 70s Saturday, ahead of the next trough moving into the Central and Northern Plains. As that system dives into the Mid and Lower Missouri Valley, a strong cold front will move through the region. This system will also bring the next chance for precipitation to the area on Sunday with some potential for light snow across northern MO. This will greatly depend on just how much cold air is able to spill into the area. In the wake of this system, chilly conditions will prevail for the first part of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Currently VFR conditions with southwesterly winds gusting up to 30 knots at the terminals ahead of an approaching cold front. The front should move through STJ around 22z and through the KC metro terminals by around 00z this evening, with winds turning initially westerly and finally northwesterly behind the front. There will be a chance for thunderstorms at MKC and IXD between 23z and 1z, and have introduced a PROB30 group for this accordingly. Widespread rain should arrive after 7z Wednesday, with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. Precipitation should mostly come to an end by 12z Wednesday morning. NNW winds should increase after 12z, with gusts up to 22 to 25 knots. MVFR CIGs are also anticipated to develop after 12z and continue through late Wednesday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.