textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Tornado Watch in effect for northern Missouri through 9PM tonight. Multiple severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight, capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few strong tornadoes.

- Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather tomorrow afternoon as a cold front slides through the area. All severe hazards remain possible for tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- Additional severe weather looks possible for Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

===== Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms Today =====

Sfc temps across the area have reached the mid to upper 80s, though we are within a very moist environment with dew points in the low to mid 70s. While this yields heat indices in the upper 90s to lower 100s, this heat is not the main hazard for today.

Scattered to numerous severe storms are developing across northwestern MO this afternoon, and will continue to increase in intensity through the afternoon and be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and a few (possibly strong) tornadoes. SPC Mesoanalysis depicts an extremely unstable environment with SBCAPE values around 4500-5000 J/kg over northeastern KS. With a 35kt LLJ over the area, shear parameters are favorable for organized convection, with enough curvature in the lowest 3km to support a supercell/tornado threat through the evening hours.

A deepening sfc trough is extending through western Iowa and southeastern Nebraska. Combined with a remnant boundary from convection from earlier this morning, we are seeing convection initiation take place across northwestern Missouri. The 18z sounding from Topeka shows a loaded gun profile, with very large CAPE and no capping, strong shear, and low level helicity exceeding 200 m2/s2. Expect to see low level shear continue to increase through this evening, supporting HP supercells that could congeal somewhat into a larger cluster of organized severe storms. If storms can remain somewhat discrete, the tornado risk will be greater. The significant tornado parameter could increase this evening, leading to greater concern for strong tornado potential. Aside from the tornado risk, there is a damaging wind and large hail threat as well. The WoFs ensemble for greater than 1 inch hail is more than 60% across the Tornado Watch area. The Tornado Watch runs through 02z tonight.

===== Flood Watch until Thursday Morning =====

Incredibly high PWATs are observed across the area, with TOP 18z special sounding recording a PW value just below 2". SPC Mesoanalysis depicts upwards of 2.2 inches. CAM runs throughout today have shown a very consistent signal for very high rainfall from thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is considerable concern for widespread 2-4+ inches of rainfall within the Flood Watch, and the possibility of isolated 6+ inches of rain generally along HWY 36 and northward. Per the 12z HREF LPMM, there is a growing concern for flash flooding across northern MO through the overnight. The Flood Watch runs until 12z Thursday.

===== Enhanced Risk for Severe Storms Thursday =====

The cold front is not expected to pass through our area tonight, and will again be a focus area for strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon and evening. CAMs have consistently shown the cold front lighting up with a line of convection tomorrow afternoon, likely not until after 18z. Hi-res soundings continue to show very strong CAPE profiles for tomorrow, possibly exceeding SBCAPE exceeding 4000 J/kg. PWATs will still be quite saturated ahead of the front, possibly north of 1.8", which will again lead to very heavy rainfall. Damaging winds and large hail are the main concerns for tomorrow, but cannot rule out another tornado risk for later tomorrow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 309 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

===== Friday and Saturday =====

Dry weather returns for Friday as low-amplitude mid-level ridging and sfc high pressure move across the region. Cool air advection will support temps to peak in the low 80s Friday afternoon. Dewpoints will also be slightly more pleasant than in recent days, with max dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Multiple rounds of shower and storm chances return on Saturday as a sfc low moves across the central Plains. The primary upper low will be situated across Ontario, with the belt of westerlies over the northern Plains through the Great Lakes. With moisture transport increasing across the area, and temps expected to warm into the mid to upper 80s, CAPE profiles are expected to become quite unstable. With favorable lapse rates and deep layer shear, the environment on Saturday appears favorable for strong to severe storms. Multiple models showcase soundings with impressive dry air in place to increase forecast DCAPE values, possibly exceeding 1400 J/kg Saturday afternoon. This would pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes possible. SPC has highlighted the region with an area of focus for Saturday.

===== Sunday into Early Next Week =====

The cold front will likely linger across the south on Sunday, leading to lingering precip chances south of I-70. Overall, a slightly drier trend is expected on Sunday as the upper wave moves east. While there are some isolated chances into next week, the greater confidence is in the pleasant temperatures. Highs for Sun- Tue are mostly in the 70s, with lower dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Main concern with TAFs for the next 24 hours is the chances for storms late this afternoon and evening. Storms are expected to develop quickly in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri between 18z and 21z, slowly propagating southeastward for the rest of the afternoon into the evening. STJ will likely be affected by storms during the late afternoon, with torrential rainfall and potential for severe weather. Things become more uncertain for MCI, with most models keeping convection just to the north before dissipating it during the evening. However, given the proximity of the storms to the northern KC metro and the favorable environment, do expect at least a period in which thunderstorms affect the terminal, most likely from 23z to 03z. Kept a TEMPO group at MCI for now. At MKC and IXD, chances for storms are lower, so PROB30 groups were included here for now. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are expected with south to southwest winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt this afternoon and evening and once again by late Thursday morning. Winds should diminish to around 10 kt overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ002>008-011>017- 020>025. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ025-102.