textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend expected through Tuesday.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely for Tuesday night through Thursday night with heavy rainfall possible due to an influx of tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Polo.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a deep closed low (nor'easter) off the coast of New Jersey, with mid/upper ridging across the western CONUS east of another trough making landfall across the West Coast, with weak north northwesterly H5 flow in place across our CWA. At the surface, light and variable winds are present between a surface high over northern Wisconsin and a subtle surface low near the Red River. A relatively saturated boundary layer has yielded persistent low level cloud cover with some patchy drizzle and even a few light showers toward central Missouri. Isolated pop up showers will be possible later this afternoon, but most areas should remain dry. For tonight, mostly cloudy skies should persist, with perhaps some patchy fog and temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s by early Monday morning.

Temperatures should warm a bit Monday and into Tuesday as the western trough digs into southern California and Hurricane Polo approaches Baja California, sending the western ridge axis closer to our CWA. As we head into Wednesday and Thursday, the remnants of Polo's moisture plume is progged to get absorbed by the deepening upper trough as it crosses the Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains and enhanced south southwesterly flow overspreads our CWA. With PWATs on the order of 1.8 to 2 inches and ample forcing for ascent, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely to begin by late Tuesday night across far NW Missouri, expanding in coverage to cover the entire CWA by Wednesday and into Thursday. Some differences remain in where exactly models want to place the heaviest rainfall amounts, and most recent guidance has actually decreased QPF across the CWA. However, current grids still show roughly 2 to 3 inches of rain across the region for Tuesday evening through Thursday evening, with highest amounts across NW Missouri and NE Kansas. Cloud cover and some patchy showers may linger into Friday morning, but at least some sunshine and dry conditions should return by Friday evening and into the weekend, with daily high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 557 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Ceilings bouncing between 2000-4000 feet agl through much of the night with light east winds. If areas are able to cool sufficiently overnight, could also see patchy fog develop. Light easterly winds linger Monday with ceiling lifting ~4000 feet agl.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.