textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable Temperatures to Slightly Above Average This Week

- Periodic Showers/Storm Chances, No Notable Severe Threat

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

This morning a weak upper level shortwave extending from the western High Plains into the southern Plains is slowly lifting northeast towards the area. Early this morning, showers associated with this feature are falling from southern Missouri into central Kansas. These showers are expected to diminish this morning as they lift towards the area however a few showers may reach the extreme southwestern CWA. As we move into the afternoon and the upper level system continues to slowly lift northeast, instability will increase to 500-1000J/Kg as highs rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop and become more scattered (40-60%) in nature across the southern and eastern CWA. The upper level disturbance will move over the forecast area tonight and remain anchored over the area through early Saturday. This will allow scattered shower and thunderstorm chances to continue tonight through Friday and into Saturday until the feature weakens over the area. Fortunately, shear will be weak through the period and PWATs will be modest limiting any severe or flood threat. Highs Friday and Saturday will range from the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Saturday night through Monday upper level ridging attempts to build over the central CONUS however, a upper level trough moving from the Pacific Northwest into the central Rockies will several lead shortwave towards the area. This shortwave will round the upper level ridge building into the region and continue to bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms through this period. The highs will range from the low to mid 80s Sunday and Monday. Model solutions differ as we move into the middle of next week. Some models suggest the upper level ridge builds over he region keeping conditions warmer and drier through the middle of next week. Other model solutions keep a train of upper shortwaves rounding the ridge into the area keeping the pattern active. The current NBM package favors the latter solution with dry conditions forecast however, we may see changes in future forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conds are expected to begin the TAF pd with bkn high clouds fcst thru 15Z-19Z. 15Z-21Z...mid-lvl clouds btn 7-10kft are fcst aft which ovc clouds around 4kft are fcst with the chc for lgt shra. Aft 03Z-05Z cigs are expected to drop into low MVFR/IFR with lgt-mod shra reducing vis to 4SM-5SM. Winds thru the pd will be out of the east btn 7-12kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.