textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue on and off throughout the day Saturday, increasing in coverage by tonight into early Sunday morning. - 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across the area but they should be non-severe.

- Dry out briefly Monday with slightly warmer temperatures before rain chances return for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

At 500mb, broad ridging across the central CONUS remains in place with the Nor'easter off of the east coast and another trough over the Pacific NW. Shortwaves off of the PNW trough however have helped to disturb the ridge over the Midwest, providing lift for the showers we have seen. Near the surface, continuing moist, WAA advection from the south from the surface low over central KS interacts with the shortwaves aloft, supporting rain showers. Showers will be on and off throughout the day Saturday but will increase in coverage by Saturday night into Sunday morning as southerly flow increases along with another upper-level shortwave moving through the region. Instability also increases throughout the day Saturday supporting a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across the area. However CAPE values remain low (300-600 J/kg) and shear is limited (20-25kts) so severe potential remains low.

Models have been consistent run-to-run with the ridge moving back into MO Sunday afternoon and the 25th-75th ensemble spread for 500mb heights is minimal so there is increasing confidence rain will start to move out Sunday afternoon and we should have a dry start to the work week. With the ridge moving back in Monday high temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain chances return for the middle of next week. Another mid-level trough moves in from the Pacific NW towards the SW CONUS where it may combine with the tropical system as it moves into the SW CONUS. This system would bring a large influx of moisture to the area, resulting in anomalously high PWAT values for this time of year. With such high PWAT values we will need to monitor the potential for flooding next week. However, there is still uncertainty whether the tropical system will cross the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, which would result in a slightly drier setup for next week so we will continue to watch how this system progresses.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Shortwave building east into eastern KS is expected to lead to an increase in shower activity across the region early Saturday morning. A secondary wave is expected to bring additional rain showers and/or isolated thunder to the region near 12Z along the KS/MO border - spreading east with time. Showers are expected to be high based resulting in VFR ceilings- except for far northern Missouri north of highway 36 where showers are expected to be most numerous. Shower activity is expected to decrease from west to east later Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Winds remain out of the southeast through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.