textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for northeastern KS and northern MO from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle which may impact travel.

- Very active weather pattern continues throughout the week with several shower and thunderstorm chances of rain. The severe weather threat looks low at this time but flooding may be possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Abbreviated discussion today with active weather building into the region. As of 17Z, broken line of thunderstorms have developed in central into eastern KS on leading edge of warm air advection in the low levels. This increasing warm air has lead to steepening mid level lapse rates, and have added mention of thunderstorms to the forecast this afternoon south of a line from Kansas City to Boonville. Instability is limited to 250- 500 J/kg of CAPE, but has been enough to support some small hail with the stronger storms. With the dry air in the near surface layer wouldn't be surprised to see a marginally strong wind gust of 40-50 mph with strongest updrafts as well.

As precipitation shield builds into the area, expect atmosphere to evaporatively cool down to the wet bulb. South of highway 50, expect temperatures in the near surface layer to largely support rain, but farther north, the warm nose between 800-900 is less pronounced and expect the favored precipitation type to evaporatively cool down to snow. Pavement temperatures around the KC metro are current in the upper 40s-lower 50s F, so as precipitation transitions to snow, expect surfaces to cool but snow to largely melt on contact with the surface (unless the intensity briefly overwhelms the melting process). Given the warm conditions as of late, the ground should insulate sufficiently minimizing winter weather impacts across the region.

Precipitation intensity wanes towards 06Z Monday as atmosphere dries out from aloft, though deep saturated layer remains in the near surface. Weak lift remains in the near surface layer through the saturated layer, so could see periods of drizzle on Monday morning. With the low level warm air advection, expect surface temperatures to bottom out this evening, and then inch up a degree or two throughout the night. With surface temperatures expected to be at or above freezing across much of the area tonight at midnight, freezing drizzle impacts will likely be confined largely north of the Missouri River and be confined to untreated surfaces that can rapidly cool like bridges and overpasses. Lift through the saturated layer continues to decrease throughout the day Monday, and may see the drizzle temporarily pause through the afternoon hours; however, a renewed rain threat is expected Monday evening as isentropic lift increases ahead of another short wave zipping across in zonal flow.

With focus on active short term, have not made any changes to the extended forecast, but will include the previous extended forecast discussion below.

Active weather will be the name of the game through next week with recurring rain and thunderstorm chances. Tuesday morning, a weak shortwave ahead of will progress eastward through the CWA. Around the same time, a stationary boundary parked to our south will begin to push north as a warm front. This is expected to bring warm temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s to areas south of I-70 before the front retreats back to the south. Light rain across the area will be supported by widespread weak isentropic ascent.

Late Tuesday evening into Wednesday, a larger, positively-tilted mid- level wave will begin to move through the region. This wave is expected to introduce a long band of vorticity reaching from northern Iowa into Texas. It is this system that may bring the potential for severe weather to parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Currently, there is very little to suggest anything of the sort in our area; I wouldn't rule out the possibility of thunder associated with some elevated convection, particularly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but the severe threat remains limited at this time as we look pretty firmly capped. This should be monitored closely over the coming days, as should other additional late-week precipitation chances that will be brought through by yet unmentioned mid-level waves. Between Tuesday morning and Saturday night, we could exceed Kansas City's monthly precipitation normal for March in just a matter of days, so definitely an extended forecast to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Currently VFR conditions at the terminals with 15 knot ENE winds gusting occasionally to 25 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing southwest of the KC metro terminals across eastern Kansas, and should make their way over the terminals by around 19z to 20z this afternoon, with MVFR CIGs and VIS coming with it. Transition to a rain/snow mix is possible by late afternoon/early evening. Precipitation should move out by around 5z tonight, with some drizzle potentially lingering. IFR CIGs should set in around 5z, and will likely continue through the overnight period into Monday morning. Winds should remain out of the ENE, becoming lighter by later this evening (~ 8 to 10 knots).

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-032-033. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.