textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming Trend This Week

- Isolated Rain Possible Thursday/Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Amplifying ridge over the western CONUS with broad surface anticyclone over the central CONUS continues to drive mild and dry weather conditions across the area. There is a short-wave trough driving a deeper cyclone that is centered over the Canadian Prairie Provinces with surface troughing extending southward into the Front Range. Over the next couple of days, this will force the center of the surface anticyclone eastward toward the Great Lakes Region, and will likely see some surface pressure falls start to advance into the Central Plains. This will will push a H85 thermal ridge axis eastward, providing southerly flow into the lower Missouri River Valley and gradually pushes temperatures back into the upper 70s and lower 80s. By the middle of the week the surface cyclone gets lifted northward back into Canada, which is likely to limit surface pressure falls into the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley. Another round dAVA with ridge axis west of the area builds another strong anticyclone across the area, with mid-level flow generally west-northwesterly. This is lining up to provide downslope adiabatic compression into the High Plains, and strengthening WAA as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. If skies continue to remain mostly clear, stronger mixing if favored to help temperatures back into the mid 80s across much of the area, with upper 70s in zones close to the Iowa state line.

Later Thursday into early Friday, H5 ridge over the western CONUS will start to break down with the potential for a mid-level vort maxima to traverse the central CONUS. Current deterministic guidance develops a surface cyclone east of the Rockies and pushes the anticyclone toward the Ohio River Valley. This could provide convergence for areas north of Interstate 70 during this time, and perhaps could generate light rain activity. The main question will be how much moisture actually returns to the area in the day preceding, whether flow brings in moisture from the Gulf, or if it is more southwesterly and brings in lower dewpoint air. Ensemble suites continue bounce between solutions brining in rain, and stay dry. The current forecast updates places slight chance (15-20 percent POPs) into the forecast late Thursday into Friday. For the weekend, trough deepens and helps drive more southerly flow into the area, which likely keeps temperatures above normal as we progress further into Fall. However, cloud cover may limit temperatures if the system is able to access more moisture and transport it into the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conds with clr skies are expected thru the pd. Winds will be out of the SE around 5kts thru 14Z-15Z when they will incr out of the south to around 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.