textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Brief warm up today into Wednesday, though temperatures remain below normal. Small snow chances return late week with the return of arctic air.

* Temperatures return closer to normal next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Temperatures have steadied if not warmed through the night with brisk southwest flow warming temperatures at 925 Hpa to within a few degrees of freezing. A cold front associated with a low centered across the western Great Lakes region is expected to slide south across the region this morning. 925 hpa temperatures tumble about 8 degrees C at 925 hpa this afternoon behind the front limiting warming potential. Mid and upper level cloud cover will also be on the increase behind the front. This will also limit late day warming, but also reduce radiative cooling this evening, before gradually clearing from north to south overnight. Light winds and dry near surface airmass will lead to good radiative conditions tonight with surface high pressure passing overhead allowing temperatures to fall back into the single digits.

As the surface high builds south of the area on Wednesday, low level flow turns west-southwest once again leading to nice substantial warming. This warming doesn't last however as weak flow Wednesday evening becomes easterly as area of low pressure develops in eastern Colorado building southeast through western KS into central Oklahoma. As the trough passes to the south, east to northeast flow increases in the near surface layer drawing cooler air into the region from the north. As the arctic air builds south on Thursday, there is the potential for a few flurries. LREF ensemble suggest the potential for 20-35% of accumulating snow along and north of highway 36. This may be a bit overdone as air in the lowest 5000 feet below the cloud base is very dry. Cold air continues to build into the region on Friday under northerly flow, pushing wind chill values back below zero with the potential for wind chills to approach cold weather advisory criteria north of Kirksville MO early Friday morning.

A disorganized mid level wave tops the upper level ridge across the western US on Friday and builds southeast into the Northern Plains on Saturday and into the Central US on Sunday. While this wave also appears to be moisture starved, LREF ensemble continues to indicate small chances (10-30%) of minor snow accumulation across the region Sunday morning. Once this wave passes east, upper level ridge across the west expands east allowing the area to break out of the deep freeze of the last few weeks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with clr skies giving way to incr high clouds aft 15Z. Aft 00Z bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst. Winds will be out of the SW btn 8-15kts thru 08Z-10Z before winds become lgt and vrb. Aft 15Z-16Z...winds will become NW/NNW btn 5-10kts before again becmg lgt and vrb aft 00Z-01Z

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.