textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated Showers/Storms Tonight; Strong to Severe Storm Possible

- Cooler Wednesday, but Warming Back Up Through End of Week

- Strong to Severe Storms Possible Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Short-wave trough and surface cyclone are located over the Upper Midwest as of 20z this afternoon, with trailing cold front positioned from Concordia KS to just southeast of Des Moines IA. Visible satellite imagery is showing cumulus development along the leading edge of this cold front. This will become the focus for convergence through the evening hours, and may be capable of generating scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Moisture has gradually increased throughout the afternoon, but dewpoints are still only in the lower 50s across most of the region. Moisture will be a limiting factor in deep convective initiation through this evening. A narrow corridor of CAPE between 500-700 J/kg may develop along the leading edge of the cold front, with deep layer shear around 40kts. If the moisture can be realized, a few strong to low end severe storms may be possible, especially along a line from the KC metro the Saline County Missouri, and areas southeastward of this. Steep boundary lapse rates may allow for a few stronger wind gusts, along with shear strong enough to support hail up to around the size of quarters with strongest storms. However, CAM cycles through the afternoon remain unexcited about strong storm development, as dry air entrainment will remain a large factor. The primary short-wave with this system looks to remain north of the area as well, leaving the cold front as the only notable forcing to try and get activity going. The cold front should push through the area a few hours after midnight tonight.

Wednesday will be cooler with the passage of the cold front, and stronger dAVA allowing a surface anticyclone move into the region. H5 ridge axis passes through the area later in the afternoon as another short-wave trough moves through the area. By Thursday, this shifts low-level flow southwesterly across the area, which will help boost temperatures back into the mid and upper 80s across much of the area. Moisture return remains in question for Thursday afternoon and evening, depending on how deep any surface cyclone over the Front Range becomes. Current trends suggest Thursday may only see dewpoint temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s, which may limit shower/storm development through much of the afternoon. Although the boundary layer may be able to destabilize, it may also remain very well capped for most of Thursday. Friday will see WAA increase, pushing temperatures into the upper 80s, and depending on moisture transport and cloud cover, there is potential to hit the lower 90s on Friday. Additional shower and storm development is possible as moisture transport should begin to increase, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 70. The main question will be if there will be enough forcing to overcome any capping.

Persistent short-wave perturbations through the weekend will help to maintain southerly flow in the lower troposphere, and greater moisture transport across the Plains and lower Missouri River Valley should lead to a more favorable thermodynamic environment for storm initiation, especially Saturday and Sunday. The 15% slight risk clips far western portions of the forecast area on Saturday, and then covers more of the area on Sunday. Specific mesoscale details are still difficult to point out. But the large scale pattern and moisture transport point to favorable conditions for shower and storm development, and if the kinematics align favorable, could produce severe storms or even foster MCS development in the evening hours. Temperatures through the weekend will remain in the upper 80s, and depending on cloud cover, may continue to see chances to climb into the lower 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Cold front moving through will bring increasing cloud cover, though ceiling bases expected to remain VFR. Isolated storms are possible southeast of the KC Metro later this evening, but current expectation is for them to miss the terminals and therefore not mentioned in the 18z TAFs. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest as the front moves through.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.