textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues for most areas today, potentially into Saturday. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for areas generally along and south of the Missouri River today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for area north of the warning through the Highway 36 corridor.

- Thunderstorm chances continue with the most likely corridor from the Missouri River northward to the IA/MO state line.

- Some relief to the heat is likely next week, in the wake of cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Upper-level ridging continues to be the dominant large-scale driver of our weather resulting extreme heat. However, the forecast area remains on the northern periphery of this ridge, which puts mainly northern Missouri, into the path of convection. In the mid-levels there is a plume of 14+C air at 700mb, extending from southern Kansas through northwestern Missouri. Convection is having a difficult time building eastward into that warm mid- level air. At the surface, a boundary extends eastward along the Highway 36 corridor with a pool of low-level moisture in the vicinity of that boundary. This moistures is very shallow and based of the latest aircraft soundings into MCI, there is ample dry air aloft. Given the warm air aloft, the chance for convection to occur along and south roughly a Kansas City to Moberly is unlikely (<25%). For areas north of this, the potential is greater and have generally arranged PoPs with this in mind, with the greatest chances (20-35%) across the northern portions of the forecast area. Instability will again be strong to extreme across much of northern Missouri with 3500 to 4500 J/kg of SBCAPE. Stronger flow further north may also lead to increasing shear with northward extent. Additionally, a fairly robust shortwave/ internal PV anomaly, likely from the deep convection over southern Nebraska and northern Kansas currently, will be moving into this airmass later today. Given this, we may see more robust/ potentially severe convection across northern Missouri this afternoon and evening.

With regards to the heat for today, another day of high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s can be expected south of a St Joseph to Moberly line. A few areas in our south will also have potential to see 100+ readings. In fact, most of Linn County, KS has a greater than 50% chance of seeing 100+ degree temperatures, with chances as high as 10-20% into the KC Metro. With dewpoints ranging from the lower 70s in our south, the upper 70s, across northern Missouri, heat index values will once again be pushing 105-115, generally along and south of the Highway 36 corridor. The current heat headlines look to be in a good place and given the likelihood of seeing another day of heat have extended the Excessive Heat Warning and the Heat Advisory into Saturday. It's possible these will need to be adjusted depending on how the forecast plays out but confidence was high enough to extend the current headlines.

A cold front will move southward through the area Sunday and that should help to finally ease the extreme heat that has been affecting the area. By Monday, temperatures should be about 10 degrees cooler than the highs for Saturday. But dewpoints will also be 5-10 degrees cooler as well. Beyond Monday, temperatures are more likely to be closer to normal than to be well above normal like we saw this week. Ensemble mean 500mb heights show the upper ridge suppressed and centered over the Southwestern US. However, there are some ensemble clusters (about 25-30% of members) that do have a stronger and more Plains oriented ridge axis. So there is some potential for temperatures to trend warmer as the forecast evolves and updates with time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. There are low probabilities for storms this afternoon and evening. For now, the chances a terminal sees a storm is low enough to keep any mention out. North of STJ, the chances in crease as a strong MCV over Nebraska slowly moves east and provides a forcing mechanism for afternoon/evening convection from southeastern Nebraska through Iowa and northern Missouri. Winds will be from the south through the forecast with some gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ011>015-020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057- 060-103>105. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.