textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected Friday afternoon across the area. RH values as low as 15% and wind gusts of 20-30 mph are likely Friday afternoon.

- Impactful wintry weather is possible Sunday into Monday, including freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

- Unsettled weather pattern sets up next week with multiple chances for rainfall. Cumulative rainfall through the end of next week could be measured in inches and there is 35-55% chance for at least 2" of rain for the 72 hour period ending Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across the entire forecast area. Temperatures will soar into the 70s this afternoon with deep mixing leading to extremely dry conditions. Afternoon humidity values may fall as low as 15%. While winds won't be extreme, wide spread wind gusts of 20-30 mph are expected. Given the hot, dry, and windy setup, have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch north of the Missouri River to a Red Flag Warning. Additional, expanded the Red Flag Warning south of the Missouri River to include the entire forecast area.

Impactful wintry weather continues to be a major concern for Sunday into Monday. The Thursday afternoon/evening suite of guidance suggests a bit a northward trend in the mixed precipitation area. This trend has shifted the higher probabilities of at least 1" of snow for the 24 hours ending Monday morning to be mainly north of the Missouri River. Additionally, with northward push, the greatest potential for freezing has shifted north as well. With the latest suite of ensemble guidance, there is about a 30-55% chance for at least an inch of snow north of the river. For freezing rain there is about a 20-40% chance for at least 0.01" north of the river. Though there remains a narrow corridor of similar probabilities along the Highway 50 corridor. This remains a highly variable forecast, as could be expected, with critical temperatures hovering/waffling across the forecast area. Forecast trends will need to be monitored as the critical rain/snow line continues to vary. As mentioned in the previous discussion, while confidence remains low on precipitation type and timing, confidence in impactful wintry weather is fairly high.

Beyond this wintry system, the weather pattern looks very unsettled next week with multiple chances for rain and even potential for thunderstorms. Naturally, there remains considerable uncertainty in timing of the various systems leading to this rainfall. But there is a strong signal that temperatures will be warm enough for all liquid precipitation. And totals through the end of next week could be significant with a 35-55% chance for at least 2" of rain for the 72 hour period ending Saturday morning and a 10-20% chance for at least 3" of rain for the same time frame.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds remains light through the overnight before accelerating through the day. Winds start southwesterly and shift to northerly through the period. Peak gusts are anticipated during the afternoon. Winds dissipate after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.