textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return for the remainder of the week and through the weekend.

- Mainly dry through the weekend, rain chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Strengthening upper ridging over the western US, coupled with a broad surface high pressure over the eastern US, will lead to a return of above normal temperatures for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. This will support highs climbing into the 80s for many locations today. Tomorrow, a weak front will move into the area and settle just south of the area tomorrow night. Ahead of this boundary, temperatures will surge in the mid to potentially upper 80s, especially in our southern zones. This boundary settles just to the south of the area as high pressure moves into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night into Thursday. That boundary lifts northward Thursday and by the evening and overnight, it still looks like there is some low potential for showers to develop along the nose of the low- level jet nosing into that boundary. The best forcing and ascent looks shifted northwest into Nebraska though, so our potential has decreased. PoPs look low enough now to not carry any mention of corresponding weather but there is still a 5-10% chance for precipitation across northern Missouri.

For later in the week and into the weekend, broad ridging spreads eastward with very warm mid-level temperatures moving east out of the higher terrain of the West. With persistent warm advection, we should see highs in the 80s be maintained. Our normal highs for the end of the week are near 70 so we will likely be at least 10 degrees above normal and potentially 15+ degrees above normal by late in the weekend. We'll also need to monitor the track a potential tropical system. Models move a system onshore along the Gulf coast and take it to the east of the area Sunday into Monday. So for now, it looks dry for our forecast area. Additionally, with the upper ridge shifting east into the middle of the country, deep troughing develops over the western US/ eastern Pacific. This system may bring some unsettled weather into the middle of the US next week, generally at the tail end of this forecast or beyond it.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Light winds initially, will become southerly around 10kts between 14-15Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.