textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous heat continues. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect areawide until 8 PM Saturday. Areas along and south of a line from St. Joseph, MO to Boonville, MO will remain under a Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM Tuesday.

- Low-end chances (20-30%) for rain Sunday into Monday morning, generally across northern Missouri. Next rain chances arrive midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

No significant changes to the forecast were made in this cycle. Deterministic and ensemble guidance alike continue to be locked into a persistent upper-level ridge through about midweek next week. As such, heat has remained the primary forecast concern for the time being. A trough over the Pacific Northwest will be one to watch as the thermal ridge erodes and the trough slides to the east. This may present a few opportunities for rain midweek next week but more on that later...

12Z upper-air observations clearly portray the ridge sprawled over the southern and central CONUS with a largely sedentary low over the Pacific Northwest and another in the vicinity of Newfoundland and Labrador. Our position relative to this Omega-block will allow temperatures to once again soar into the mid/upper 90s areawide, with high temperatures in our far south potentially reaching triple digits and heat index values around 105. With little to no change in the pattern on Saturday, expect similar conditions, just maybe a few degrees warmer than today. Late Saturday night, a backdoor cold front is expected to begin moving into the northeast portion of the CWA and continue sliding south throughout the day on Sunday. It is possible that some showers may be able to develop in the vicinity of this boundary so have bumped PoPs into the 20-30% range across northern Missouri and into the 10-20% range south of US-36 Sunday afternoon and evening. Counties generally along and north of the Grand River will have the Extreme Heat Warning end Saturday night as slightly cooler conditions in the low/mid 90s are expected on Sunday with the passage of the backdoor cold front and associated cloud cover/rain chances. South of this corridor, little reprieve is expected on Sunday as the front is not anticipated to move through the south and western portions of the CWA until after peak heating so the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect along and south of the Missouri River until Tuesday evening. More marginal conditions are expected on Monday behind the backdoor cold front, but several locations are still expected to reach hazardous heat thresholds, especially those around the KC Metro area and in east-central KS and west-central MO.

The deamplifying ridge will be hurried west ahead of the then progressive PNW low sometime midweek. Currently, forecast temperatures and heat index values on Wednesday would qualify for an extension of the Extreme Heat Warning. However, there is substantial uncertainty regarding the timing of the attendant cold front that is set to sweep across the Plains. The most recent guidance suggests that this could occur as early as Tuesday night or as late as Wednesday night. Though an extension was considered during this forecast cycle, uncertainty was far too high for one to be issued. Trends will be monitored closely in the days ahead to make this determination. Rain opportunities may also arrive with this cold front, but again, there is a lack of precision when it comes to timing so have retained about 20-30% 6-hourly PoPs from Wednesday morning into Friday morning to account for precipitation potential from the cold front as well as any shortwaves that ripple through a comparatively more zonal pattern.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions with light south winds through the period. Potential for a few high clouds tonight into Saturday highway 36 and north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ020>022- 028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-023>025-032-033. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.