textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Hazardous heat continues today with forecast heat indices between 105-110F. A Heat Advisory is in effect until 9 PM tonight areawide, continuing through 7 PM Tuesday for portions of east- central Kansas and west-central/central Missouri.

* There is a 30-40% chance of showers and storms in north- central and northeast Missouri late tonight and early Tuesday morning. The strongest storms could produce damaging wind gusts and small hail.

* Cooler temperatures for the remainder of the work week with increasing chances for showers and storms mid/late week. Heavy rainfall looks to be the main hazard at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Recent upper-air and surface analyses depict a mid-latitude cyclone over western Ontario with an attendant cold front draped across the Northern Plains and another surface boundary just west of the Mississippi River. Meanwhile, the upper-level ridge that has engulfed much of the CONUS continues to be suppressed by the cyclone and various shortwave disturbances running through the mean flow.

Though the upper-level ridge is on a weakening trend, it remains influential enough for the continuation of hazardous heat this afternoon. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s have held strong with most sites recording heat indices above 100F (and a few above 105F) before noon today. Unfortunately, dewpoints are expected to remain largely unchanged if not slightly higher than current observations this afternoon given light surface winds and weak mixing. As temperatures increase this afternoon, expect widespread heat indices in the 105-110F range. A Heat Advisory is in effect areawide through 9 PM tonight, with a section of counties in east-central Kansas and west-central/central Missouri staying under a Heat Advisory until 7 PM Tuesday.

As the cyclone advances to the east, it will drag the cold front observed over the Northern Plains through the Midwest overnight and through the early morning hours on Tuesday. Storms are anticipated to develop along and ahead of this front in Wisconsin and Iowa and perhaps as far west as Nebraska later this evening. CAMs aren't particularly excited about the prospect of strong storms closer to home...many now suggest that storm clusters will decay substantially before reaching the northern Missouri border, an area where the pre- existing storms would have to contend with poor shear and limited upper-level support. Storms may be able to sustain themselves for a brief period after moving south have held onto 30-40% PoPs across north-central and northeast Missouri after midnight. The sooner any storms are able to reach these areas, the greater the chance of seeing a strong/severe storm. The primary hazard would be damaging winds, but trends point to weakening storms by the time they reach northern Missouri. Additional storm development along the cold front as it moves through Kansas and Missouri is not expected given a stout layer of dry air in the low/mid levels. For most, the only impact from this frontal passage will be cooler temperatures...though areas under the Heat Advisory through 7 PM Tuesday (generally south of I-70) may not get as much reprieve from the heat until Wednesday. Temperatures will continue to gradually cool as we progress through the remainder of the work week. but a rebuilding ridge looks to heat the region back up over the weekend.

Rain chances will return midweek as a series of shortwave disturbances roll through the Plains, interacting with the remnants of Tropical Depression 2 and resulting in a setup almost reminiscent of a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE). During midweek, high pressure is expected to build across the Southern Plains as TD 2 drifts into the western Gulf. The proximity of these features will allow deep tropical moisture to wrap anticyclonically into the Southwest, Great Plains, and Midwest. Our first chance at precipitation will arrive Thursday morning, likely in the form of a decaying complex of showers/storms out of western/central Kansas...currently, 40-50% PoPs exist in the western portions of the CWA for this reason. Greater chances (60%+) arrive overnight Thursday into Friday morning when the low-level jet intensifies, pulling more tropical moisture into the area. Forecast PWATs currently sit in the 2-2.5" range which is well above the 90th percentile climatology for TOP. Unsurprisingly, WPC has highlighted much of the area in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall on both Thursday and Friday. Though we are still a bit of a ways out, it does appear we are looking at some degree of a heavy rain setup for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals through the forecast period. Some diurnal cu lingers at downtown terminals, but no flight impacts are expected. Primary forecast impacts will be from a passing cold front from the northwest, which will impact terminals between 8-11z. Winds expected to swing from the southwest towards the north with the passage of the front. There is some indication from guidance that isolated showers/storms are possible with the passage of the cold front, but confidence in this solution is low, so have left out mentions of this in current TAF issuance. Otherwise, no other flight impacts are anticipated through the remainder of the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>039. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102>105. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060.