textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal expected through the rest of the week, and into the weekend.

- Dry and pleasant weather also expected through the rest of the week, before a potential return of rain next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Current synoptic patterns of zonal flow to our north have allowed for a return of seasonably warm temperatures into the 80s, along with calm conditions and overall fair weather. A high pressure center located in the upper Great Plains has also given influence to our weather pattern, and will continue to progress to our north into the Great Lakes region. The high will allow for light and variable winds on Thursday, and southerly winds on Friday. We will continue to see seasonable temperatures, fair skies, and overall, pleasant weather for the rest of the workweek, and into the weekend.

Into the weekend, a surface low pressure will begin to develop over the upper Great Plains, and into southern Canada. Additionally, an upper-ridge and an upper-high pressure system will allow for southerly flow and warm-air advection for temperatures to remain in the 80s. The pressure differences over the central part of the CONUS will allow winds to increase this weekend with occasional gusts, especially for areas across Northwestern Missouri. Our other story for this weekend will be the eventual remnants of Tropical Storm Isaias, which as of Wednesday afternoon, is building just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance will progress northward and be to our east by Saturday night, and continue to travel eastward on Sunday as a result of shortwave development with respect to the jet stream beginning to dig southward. Not expecting any impacts from the tropical depression, with the exception of increased cloud cover in our eastern counties.

As the weekend progresses, a deepening troughing feature is expected to begin to come in contact with a cut-off low off the coast of the Pacific. In addition, an upper-low will develop over the California coast. This will result in both temperature and moisture advection into early next week. The trough is expected to come through the region into the middle of next week, which will bring our next chances for more seasonable temperatures and rainfall. There is still uncertainty of exact timing, and amount of rainfall, as ensemble spread is much higher beginning on Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the forecast period. Variable calm to light winds with FEW high clouds overnight to give way to light southeasterly winds and mostly clear conditions by mid-morning on Thursday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.