textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through the region late tonight into early Saturday morning.

- Straight line winds up to 70 mph will be the primary hazard, with a few brief tornadoes possible.

- Cooler tomorrow behind the front.

- Warmer temperatures return by Sunday, with highs in the 70s expected on Monday and Tuesday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible again on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the mid/upper trough ejecting across the central plains, with a 70+ knot H5 jet steak from west central KS into NW Iowa. At the surface, the cold front is making its way through the region right now, with a line of showers and thunderstorms along the front moving into the KC metro as of 1130 pm Friday. Straight line winds are the primary threat, with the potential for a few QLCS mesovortices/tornadoes, especially if the 0-3 km bulk shear vector can become oriented more perpendicular to the convective line. The front should completely clear the CWA by around 3 to 4 AM, with winds turning northwesterly behind the front (sustained winds around 15 mph and gusts up to 25 mph). Cooler, drier air will filter into the region behind the front, with morning lows in the mid 30s to the lower 40s for most locations. High temperatures for Saturday should reach the low to mid 50s, with skies clearing from west to east in the afternoon and breezy NW winds continuing into early afternoon. High pressure builds in from the west by mid to late afternoon, relaxing surface winds, and with light winds and clear skies, radiational cooling will allow temps to drop into the mid 30s CWA wide Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Zonal mid level flow returns on Sunday with higher mid level heights building in and low level flow turning southwesterly and increasing with gusts up to 25 mph. This will yield theta e advection and help temperatures return to the mid to upper 60s Sunday afternoon along with increasing dew points 5 to 8 degrees. A deep closed H5 low centered over Baja California and another subtle shortwave trough translating across the plains helps to increase theta e advection on Monday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s and breezy southwesterly winds for Monday afternoon.

As we head into Tuesday, the closed H5 low over Baja California finally looks to become more of an open wave and eject across the Trans Pecos and into the Southern High Plains. Meanwhile, a cold front is progged to sag southward into the region along the southern periphery of broad low amplitude troughing across the north central Plains and into the Upper Midwest, with 40 to 50 knot WSW H5 flow taking hold over eastern KS and MO. Theta e advection will continue, allowing dew points to rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s by Tuesday afternoon, along with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorms are quite likely Tuesday afternoon, evening, and into late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning (70 to 90 percent), and with sufficient forcing, moisture, instability, and wind shear, a few storms could be strong to severe, with SPC placing much of the CWA within a 15% risk area for severe storms. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible. Storms should clear out from north northwest to south southeast as the front pushes through the region Wednesday morning. Temperatures should be much cooler on Wednesday, with current model guidance suggesting highs in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The line of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front is moving through the KC metro terminals at 530z, with it likely to clear to the east of the terminals by around 7z. Heavy rain reducing VIS and gusty westerly winds will come with the main convective line. After FROPA, winds will turn northwesterly, with sustained winds around 12 knots and gusts up to 22 knots. MVFR CIGs are likely overnight tonight into Saturday morning before improving to VFR by around 18z Saturday. Skies should clear from west to east by mid afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable by 00z Sunday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.