textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for northeastern KS and northern MO from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing drizzle which may impact travel.

- Very active weather pattern continues throughout the week with several shower and thunderstorm chances of rain. The severe weather threat looks low at this time but flooding may be possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Early this morning, a cold front has sunk through the forecast area. This front will stall across central Oklahoma into northern Arkansas today. This afternoon a 30-35kt southerly LLJ will develop, and override the stationary boundary to the south. This will allow precipitation to develop over the area. Also, this afternoon, a 700mb shortwave trough will move into the region providing additional lift. As precipitation moves into the area temperatures will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s so precipitation at the onset is expected to be rain. However, as we move into tonight diurnal sinking of the temperatures coupled with wet bulb effect will allow P-type to transition. Model soundings suggest areas south of the Missouri River will remain at or above freezing at the surface which should keep the p-type rain perhaps mixed with sleet. Across northern Missouri (along and north of highway 36) surface temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 20s to near 30. Here model sounding temperature profiles remain below freezing which would suggest snow. The area in between Highway 36 and the Missouri River will be much more tricky as surface temperatures will be right around freezing. Temperatures profile show a weak warm nose which suggests that all modes of precipitation are possible so it is in this area a wintry mix is forecast. As we move into Monday morning, surface temperatures become even more of a concern as we lose ice crystals in the snow growth zone and drizzle and freezing drizzle become more of a concern. Temperatures look to remain below freezing across northern Missouri along and north of Highway 36 and it is here where we may see some light glazing from freezing drizzle. Fortunately, slick conditions should be fairly shortlived as temperatures move above freezing across the entire CWA by late Monday morning. This system will shift east of the area by Monday afternoon and temperatures will warm into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday evening into Monday night a southwesterly LLJ will overrun the stalled stationary boundary south of the area allowing another round of precipitation to move into the area. Fortunately, overnight Monday temperatures will remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s keeping precipitation all rain.

Active weather will be the name of the game through next week with recurring rain and thunderstorm chances. Tuesday morning, a weak shortwave ahead of will progress eastward through the CWA. Around the same time, a stationary boundary parked to our south will begin to push north as a warm front. This is expected to bring warm temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s to areas south of I-70 before the front retreats back to the south. Light rain across the area will be supported by widespread weak isentropic ascent.

Late Tuesday evening into Wednesday, a larger, positively-tilted mid- level wave will begin to move through the region. This wave is expected to introduce a long band of vorticity reaching from northern Iowa into Texas. It is this system that may bring the potential for severe weather to parts of Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Currently, there is very little to suggest anything of the sort in our area; I wouldn't rule out the possibility of thunder associated with some elevated convection, particularly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, but the severe threat remains limited at this time as we look pretty firmly capped. This should be monitored closely over the coming days, as should other additional late-week precipitation chances that will be brought through by yet unmentioned mid-level waves. Between Tuesday morning and Saturday night, we could exceed Kansas City's monthly precipitation normal for March in just a matter of days, so definitely an extended forecast to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Conditions will deteriorate through the afternoon likely leading to IFR and LIFR conditions this evening through the overnight.

A storm system moves into the region enveloping the terminals with RA through the afternoon hours. RA is expected to transition to RASN/SN for terminals north of the MO River with some FZRA possibly mixed in. Later in the period precipitation lightens to DZ and FZDZ. CIGs gradually lower as precipitation envelopes settling to likely sub 1500ft after 06Z Monday and sub 1000ft after 10Z Monday.

Wind remain generally of the the east starting gusty around 20-25 knots, especially after sunrise. Gusts dissipate as precipitation envelopes the area during the afternoon and evening. Sustained winds around 10 knots continue through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-032-033. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for KSZ025-102.