textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today behind the front, with breezy northwesterly winds continuing through mid to late afternoon.

- Patchy frost possible overnight tonight into Sunday morning.

- Warming trend begins on Sunday and continues into Wed/Thurs.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Thursday into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a 513 dam closed low centered over the Manitoba/Ontario border with accompanying troughing extending southward all the way into the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, at the surface, the cold front continues to push east, draped from Chicago to St. Louis and into Ozarks. Any trailing stratiform rain associated with last nights MCS has completely exited the CWA to the east, with skies expected to clear from west to east within the next few hours. Much cooler temperatures are expected today behind the cold front and with the region being firmly beneath the longwave mid/upper trough, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 50s to perhaps as warm as 60 degrees. Breezy northwesterly winds should continue this morning and afternoon, and with relative humidity dropping to below 30 percent across NW Missouri, this could yield elevated fire weather conditions. However, recent rains and continued green-up should temper the fire weather concerns. Model guidance suggests the chance for some high based showers translating northwest to southeast across the region later this afternoon, but with very dry low levels, think the vast majority of rain from these potential showers would evaporate before reaching the ground. However, cannot rule out a few sprinkles.

Winds will relax this evening as surface high pressure builds in from the west. With light winds and clear skies tonight, strong radiational cooling should help temperatures fall into the mid to upper 30s for most locations overnight tonight into Sunday morning. There could be some frost potential for cooler locations across the CWA. Temperatures should be warmer on Sunday thanks to downsloping westerly flow, with highs likely reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s. Any frost potential for Sunday night into Monday morning should be relegated to far NE Missouri, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s elsewhere.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

On Monday, troughing off the west coast should lead to increased ridging downstream of this trough across the western CONUS. Meanwhile, a warm front is progged to lift northward through the region Monday morning, returning low level flow to southerly and ushering in increased warm air and moisture advection, with temperatures likely rising into the mid 70s and dew points increasing from the mid 30s into the mid 40s by Monday afternoon. A subtle mid level shortwave embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft is projected to translate from the Upper Midwest into the Southern Great Lakes region on Tuesday, and may bring a slight chance for some showers to NE Missouri Tuesday evening/night. Otherwise, the warming and moistening trend is expected to continue on Tuesday and into Wednesday as the western mid/upper trough is projected to enter into the western CONUS by Wednesday afternoon, leading to increased ridging over Missouri and Kansas downstream.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes on Thursday and into Friday as the aforementioned western mid/upper trough and an accompanying surface low is projected to advance eastward into the Plains. SPC has highlighted areas just west of our CWA within a 15% probability for severe thunderstorms from 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with clear skies through the majority of the period (broken mid level clouds possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours). Northwesterly winds up to 10 to 12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots should continue through late afternoon, after which winds should turn westerly and become light.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.