textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost advisory tonight into early Monday morning for portions of NE Missouri.

- Well above normal temperatures expected Monday through Thursday with breezy south southwesterly winds.

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Thursday into Friday. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The short term conditions to look quiet with above normal temperatures. Today, a weak surface front is sinking south into the area. There will not be much of a temperatures gradient north or south of this front just a wind shift. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s. By tonight, this surface boundary will sink into central MIssouri near the CWA southern boundary. This will lead to light winds and mostly clear skies tonight allowing low to drop into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Where temperatures will drop into the mid 30s across the northeastern CWA a frost advisory is effect from midnight through 9AM. Monday the surface boundary will lift back north as a warm front allow modest WAA to get underway. This coupled with height rises over the region will push highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s. WAA will strengthen over the area Monday night into Tuesday as a upper level trough pushes into the west coast causing upstream upper level ridging to build into the eastern Rockies and western High Plains. The local area will be under the lee side of the ridge which will provided additional height rises over the area driving highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Tuesday night, a upper level shortwave will dive southeast in the northwest flow aloft on the lee side of the upper ridge however, the ridge axis will be beginning to build into the local area leaving the better chances for precipitation associated with this feature further to the east. the ridge axis does build directly over the local area Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The pattern gets more active as we move into the extended period. By Thursday, the upper level trough that was digging into the west coast on Tuesday will move into the northern/central Plains. This will force a cold front into the area with showers and thunderstorms developing. The area is currently outlooked in a slight risk however, effective shear is only 30-35kts, MUCAPE values are 1000- 1500J/Kg, which is marginal however mid-level lapse rates are steep. Consequently, this timeframe will need to be monitored for severe potential as we move through the work week. In addition, this round of storms will also have the potential to produce locally heavy rain with PWATs in the 1.25"-1.50" range. Temperatures ahead of the front Thursday will reach the mid to upper 70s. Showers and thunderstorm will will shift east of the area by Friday as surface high pressure moves into the area. Temperatures will be cooler Friday behind the front with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Saturday the region will be under southwesterly flow aloft. A series of shortwave embedded in the flow are expected to bring another round or two of showers to the area Saturday with highs in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with just a ocnl few-sct high clouds. Winds will be shifting thru the pd but will begin the pd out of the WSW/W around 10kts before becmg ENE/NE aft 01z btn 5- 10kts. Aft 10Z winds will shift to the SE btn 7-12kts before becmg southerly btn 10-15kts aft 15Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ007-008. KS...None.