textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Low confidence forecast tonight with scattered showers and thunderstorms across central into eastern Kansas. Stronger storms would be capable of producing damaging winds and possibly large hail.

* Cooler and drier conditions Saturday into Sunday, with periodic storm chances returning as early as Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

18Z sounding from OAX shows steep mid level lapse rates from 700-500 mb leading to elevated instability. Dry layer below 600 mb leading to reservoir of downdraft CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Cluster of storms that developed in north central Nebraska has somewhat maintained their strength working to the southeast toward the I-80 corridor. Low confidence forecast for tonight as back door cold front associated with low pressure center near the Great Lakes slides south. Instability is largely controlled by the lifting level, but if we are able to get a near surface based storm, there would be enough instability (3000-3500 J/kg) to create the potential for large hail especially with 40-45 knots of effective shear. If storms remain more elevated, the greatest severe threat would be damaging winds owing to the dry air below 600 mb.

Models offer a variety of solutions with these storms this evening. It appears the atmosphere is at least weakly capped (cin 50-100 J/kg) across northwest Missouri, with an increasing cap farther south. It is unclear have long the storms would be able to maintain themselves, but some solutions suggest storms trying to build southeast through the evening hours along and west of the Missouri River Valley.

Lee troughing across eastern Colorado is expected to become better organized tonight into a weak low pressure center that develops in western Kansas. A weak low level jet extending from central Oklahoma through central KS into western Nebraska is expected to lead to strong theate-e advection and additional thunderstorm development tonight. These storms are expected to move southeast overnight in northwest flow aloft building into central and eastern KS overnight. It appears these storms may primarily remain west of the forecast area, but eastern KS into far western Missouri may get brushed by any activity with the potential of large hail and damaging winds with any storm that is able to sustain itself this far east.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected to build south across the region Saturday and continue into Sunday as Canadian high pressure noses into the region. Long standing ridge across the western US has periodic ridge riders that may lead to periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. The first wave moves through the region Sunday night, with additional storms possible Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Have gone with VFR conditions across the sites, but not without a small asterisk. Before that though, conditions should largely see light to variable winds this evening and into the overnight before gradually settling out of the NE. Even so, winds to remain on the lighter side under 10 mph. Periods cloud cover through much of the period, but should reside around / above 15 kft. Now for the asterisk... there should be convective activity west of the area through central into eastern Kansas late overnight tonight and Saturday morning. Guidance keeps majority of activity west of the terminals, but a few do suggest scattered shower/storm potential. Confidence was not great enough to put any mentions in at this time, but trends will continue to be monitored for any needed amendments or addition to 06z issuance.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.