textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Very conditional storm threat tomorrow with a strong cap in place. If we manage to break the cap storms will have an environment that could foster damaging winds and large hail. 20% that storms develop in the afternoon.

- Hot and humid Sunday through the next work week. Heat indicies climb into the triple digits with minimal relief overnight. Extreme Heat Warnings will likely be needed.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Surface low pressure is sliding across northern MO this afternoon. Wrap around moisture around the system has scattered rain showers over the region. Activity is largely starting to diminish west to east as the low pulls east. Some reinvigoration of storms will be possible along a line of convergence. Current guidance leans towards having this zone just south of our southern CWA counties. Therefore, SPC has pulled the severe risk out of our CWA for today.

Saturday marks the start of our warming trend. Easterly winds in the morning will be replaced with winds out of the south as a warm front lifts north. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty with precipitation chances for the day, which is fairly common place when we get into these warm air advection regimes. Most of the deterministic models are a bit more bullish on the precipitation chances with the CAMs much more tapered back. Model soundings indicate that there will be a cap in place as warm air aloft filters into the region. Storm development will be quite conditional as to whether or not the cap can be broken. Additional forcing from some synoptic drivers will have to be in play to overcome the cap. Which, we in fact do have for Saturday by way of a warm front and a weak shortwave aloft. That being said, timing and placement of these features would need to align with peak heating to stand a chance at developing any storms. The latest guidance still shows high variance in solutions so we have limited the PoPs to 20%. Any storms that do manage to develop could be severe with a high amount of instability to work with, but bulk shear looks to be a tad on the low side with speeds of 30-35 kts. For now, SPC has us in a marginal risk (1/5) for the conditional threat tomorrow afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

An omega blocking pattern emerges on Sunday and looks to hold firm through most of next week. A deepening trough over western CONUS with a strong ridge over the Midwest will lead to a heat dome engulfing the region. Strong surface heating will regularly lead to max temperatures in the 90s. The added impact of southerly winds driving dewpoints up will lead to heat indicies in the triple digits. Poor overnight recovery with temperatures only dropping into the mid and upper 70s. Heat risk will routinely be in the major risk category for the region on Monday with a few areas in the extreme risk category by Tuesday. This prolonged heat wave will likely see an extreme heat warning issued in later forecast packages.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

A weak cool front south of the terminals will stall overnight into Saturday morning before starting to lift back north as a warm front Saturday afternoon into evening. Will continue to see conditions lowering into IFR and areas of LIFR overnight into Saturday morning in low clouds. Some fog is also possible, especially near the MO/KS border (KSTJ) with soundings at the other sites more favoring of stratus. Ceilings should improve to MVFR and VFR Saturday afternoon/evening as winds shift to southeast 10-15 kt with a warm front lifting through. Can't rule out a shower or storm at some point Saturday morning into early afternoon, but confidence is too low for mention right now.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.