textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- One more warm day Wednesday before temperatures fall below normal starting Thursday.

- Generally dry conditions persist into Friday.

- Large system for the weekend may bring measurable snow to the region, but uncertainty remains high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

High pressure was centered over the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon and extended into the Mississippi Valley and Lower Missouri Valley. Weak low pressure was located over southwestern South Dakota with a warm front extending into Nebraska and northern Missouri. Skies were mainly clear across the region with some cloud cover along and north of the front. Southerly winds were bringing warmer air into the area with temperatures warming into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

A weak cold front will work through the Lower Missouri Valley region tonight. While most of the moisture will remain to the north across Iowa, some isolated flurries or sprinkles cannot be ruled out as it moves through. No accumulations are expected. There isn't a push of cold air behind this front, so highs Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 30s to 40s. A secondary cold front/trough will push through late Wednesday and bring some slightly cooler air in resulting in highs in the 30s with a few lower 40s far south. Cold, arctic air starts to push southward Thursday night and continue Friday. This will likely result in Thursday's highs occurring during the early morning hours as temperatures will not recover much during the day. Afternoon temps will only reach the teens and single digits above zero.

Much uncertainty remains for the system that may impact the area in the Friday night into Saturday time frame. Strong high pressure will be centered over the Midwest with a tight baroclinic zone setting up across the southern CONUS. Multiple shortwaves will track along this baroclinic zone and eventually lead to the development of an area of low pressure later in the weekend over the southeast. Most of the impacts during this time period will likely remain to our south, but deterministic guidance continues to differ. The GFS continues to keep the CWA dry with limited Gulf moisture reaching this far northward and the high to the north remaining in control. The ECMWF has trended a bit downward with its impacts, but continues to bring some accumulating snow to the area, mainly along and south of I-70. NBM probabilities for at least an inch of snowfall is around 50-60% for Henry, Bates, and Cass counties with around 40-45% for the metro area and 25% along the Missouri-Iowa border. One aspect that is not uncertain is that anything that falls will be in the form of snow with temperatures in the teens and single digits above zero with no ice or mixed precipitation expected. There is expected to be a sharp gradient on the north side of the system, so slight shifts north or south will likely have quite an impact for the area. High pressure then looks to take over heading into the new week with slowly warming temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Clouds will increase tonight into Wednesday, but will not lead to any restrictions. Winds will be southerly this afternoon and slowly turn more westerly tonight at around 10 knots or less. A low level jet will move over the region tonight, but looks to remain to the east of the terminals, except for KIXD, which should be close to the edge.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.