textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal today through Wednesday

- Elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday

- Next chance for precipitation Tuesday evening (20-40%) and Thursday (15-30%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Early this morning, surface high pressure that brought tranquil conditions yesterday afternoon is sliding eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In its wake, WAA Is developing across the area. This, coupled with upper level ridging building over the region in response to a upper level trough digging into the West Coast will bring well above normal temperatures today with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Tonight into tomorrow, the upper level trough over the West Coast will move through the central Rockies into the western Plains weakening as it does. An attendant cold front will develop Tuesday over the western Plains. This will further tighten the pressure gradient across the area increasing WAA and driving highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Well above normal temperatures (20- 25 degrees) and strong southerly winds gusting to 30-40 mph will lead to elevated fire weather concerns although elevated RH values and wet fuels are expected to keep conditions from reaching critical thresholds. Tuesday night, the upper level shortwave will move across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing a Pacific front through the area. Moisture will this front will be limited and the better forcing will be north of the area however, there may be enough forcing along the front to product some light widely scattered showers (20-40% chance). Behind the front on Wednesday, downslope westerly flow will keep temperatures well above normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s. It will also usher in might drier conditions. Relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 15 to 30% range during the afternoon with westerly winds around 10 to 15 mph. This would keep conditions again from reaching critical thresholds however this will need to be monitored the next few days.

Thursday, a upper level shortwave will move from the eastern Rockies into the central Plains forcing another cold front through the area. Again, moisture will be limited however, forcing will be stronger which will bring the chance for additional shower chances (15-30%) on Thursday for areas along and north of the I-70 corridor. Highs Thursday will range from the mid to upper 50s across northwest MO and northeast KS where the front will pass earlier in the day, to near 70 across the southeastern CWA. Much cooler air will be ushered in behind this front Thursday night with lows dropping into the lower 20s to near 30. The NBM produces some light snow Thursday night into Friday however, moisture will continue to be lacking especially with surface high pressure building into the area on Friday. If we do see some flakes no accumulation would be expected. What is expected, is a return to near normal temperatures on Friday with highs in the 40s to near 50. Another upper level trough moves through the central Plains on Saturday, the NBM continues to produce light precipitation chances (25-30%) however, the 00Z runs of the GFS and EC depict a surface ridge entrenched over the forecast area with precipitation shunted south of the CWA. Whether it is clouds or weak mixing, highs Saturday are forecast to stay near normal in the 40s to near 50. Saturday night the upper level trough will move through the region forcing a cold front the forecast area. CAA with make for a cool Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period, with an overall southerly wind direction around 10-15 kts. Currently, winds are gusting around 20-25 kts across the area, with gusts as high as 30 kts observed at area terminals. Have elected to keep wind gusts at around 20-25 kts at terminals, with potential for sustained 30 kt gusts decreasing through the day. The present cloud deck will become scattered by the evening, with a new cloud deck filling in by tomorrow morning. Wind gusts will return around this time as well, with greater confidence in gusts around 30-35 kts after the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.