textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow likely (>70-90%) late Monday night into early Tuesday along the Missouri/Iowa border. Up to 2" of snow is expected, with a narrow band of higher accumulations possible. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for several counties in the northern portion of the CWA.

- Active weather pattern as we head into mid/late week with several opportunities for rain Wednesday and beyond. Severe threat remains low, but flooding is possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Although it is April, snow is expected to make a forecast comeback late tonight and into Tuesday in the northern portion of the CWA. After dark, a frontogenesis maxima looks to intensify over Omaha and extend southeastward into northeastern Missouri. This will support the development of a narrow band of snow in the same vicinity. While the best signal for impactful snowfall remains confined to eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa, potential for up to about 2" of wet snow does exist in several of our counties along the MO/IA border. However, with warm road/surface temperatures, it is unclear how much snow would be able to successfully accumulate and produce impacts. Around 1:30PM, road temperature sensors in southern Iowa reported road surface temperatures in the mid/upper 70s. Along I-70 in Missouri, road surface temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer, so roads in our northern MO counties are likely somewhere in between. Now, from diurnal cooling alone, we would expect road surface temperatures to drop overnight. The question I pose here is "just how cool" surfaces will become. This is of particular note due to this event simultaneously being a borderline freeze event. Overnight cloud cover and winds could easily prevent temperatures from reaching freezing when frontogenic forcing is greatest, thus limiting snowfall accumulations. Another factor that could affect snow totals is the precise placement of the Fgen maxima and subsequent snowfall band. Should this band intensify further south than currently anticipated, we could see higher snowfall totals in our northernmost counties. Still, probabilities of more than 2" of snow along the border remain low (<20%).

Tuesday, snow will gradually come to an end after sunrise. Temperatures will be largely similar to Monday, with an exception for areas along and north of Highway 36 which may be about 5-10 degrees cooler. Cloud cover will be ample across the region with a warm front expected to lift north late Tuesday evening and into the overnight hours on Wednesday, ushering in region-wide low/mid 70 degree temperatures and breezy southerly winds, particularly in northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Rain chances will build in from the northwest late Wednesday ahead of a cold front, marking the beginning of a rain-filled extended forecast. After Wednesday, the cold front is expected to stall along the US-50 corridor, prolonging shower and storm chances through Friday and Saturday. At this time, ensemble guidance is not particularly excited about severe potential mid/late week with the greatest instability staying off to the west. Instead, the focus seems to be on river and areal flooding concerns with PWATs well above climatology (>90th percentile from Thursday through at least Sunday). By Saturday morning, up to 2" of accumulated rainfall is possible.

The aforementioned stationary boundary will likely travel northward as a warm front sometime on Saturday, leading to a resurgence of moisture and warmth. Combined with shortwaves ejecting out ahead of a deeper low pressure system along the California coast, this will continue to fuel rain and storm chances through the weekend and beginning of next week. Ensembles hint at greater instability/shear environments Sunday PM and again on Monday PM, but at this range, little more can be said other than there is at least some potential for stronger convection in the long term.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions anticipated to prevail across the TAF sites through this period. Winds remain primarily out of the NE through this time, with sustained around 10kts. Some gusts into the upper teens kts will be possible this evening and overnight. Winds eventually settle more southeasterly late in the period. Cloud coverage increases during the period, but well within VFR across the KC Metro sites. KSTJ may see the potential for MVFR conditions, but given it should be on the edge of that potential and its being later in the current period, have kept this TAF VFR throughout.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ003-005>007-016. KS...None.