textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet weather continues with mild temperatures today.

* Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non- thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts possibly exceeding 45 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

High pressure has settled across the lower MO Valley and central Plains. Mostly clear skies, dry air, and light or calm winds have brought temperatures down into the 50s early this morning. Temperatures will start to rebound today as return flow begins on the backside of the high this afternoon. Highs will climb close to 80.

Moisture further increases tonight as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers will develop late tonight. There may be enough instability for a few thunderstorms as well. The cold front will stall Tuesday across central or southern MO then wash out as a trough swings east into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers may build into a few thunderstorms midday across central MO, but forecast soundings indicate capping lingering and forcing along the front is lost as it washes out. Therefore, PoPs remain low and become unmentionable by mid to late afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 337 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

By Tuesday night, a more impressive trough will start digging into the northern Plains. Low pressure will develop over the Dakotas by early Wednesday morning, then track east to Iowa or southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon/evening, then lower Michigan Wednesday night. Moisture advection will ramp up late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Widespread showers and elevated thunderstorms should begin developing across Iowa and perhaps far northern Missouri late Tuesday night on the nose of a 60 kt LLJ over KS into southwest IA. That activity will head east away from the area Wednesday morning.

Strong capping will remain in place into early Wednesday afternoon as an EML overspreads the area behind the morning convection. This should keep coverage from developing until afternoon when the trailing cold front begins to push southeast into northwest MO and northeast KS. Strong low level mechanical mixing, an easing of the EML, and surface heating with continued moisture advection will help reduce capping through the day, especially across MO. Some capping may linger farther west across KS, which will likely limit storm coverage to some extent. CAPE will increase to greater than potentially 4000 J/kg in the presence of 45+ kts of shear. The parameter space suggests supercells are possible initially with all severe weather hazards possible. With time, storms may organize into a squall line capable of widespread wind damage given the strength of the 500 and 850 mb jet streaks, 60-70 kts and 45-50 kts, respectively, across northern MO. In addition, forecast soundings indicate 40-50 kt gradient winds toward the top of the mixed layer. Wind gusts may exceed 45 mph outside of any thunderstorms, so it wouldn't take much for storms to produce severe gusts given the background wind field.

The cold front will advance south behind the storms Wednesday, but will slow or stall across southern MO Wednesday night and Thursday. Storms may linger south of I-70 into Thursday before high pressure building in gives the front an extra boost to push it farther away.

Another system to watch will emerge over the Plains by the weekend. The evolution of this system is still of low confidence, but ample moisture will advect north ahead of it and various model systems advertise swaths of very heavy rain totals along the warm front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Clear skies today with west winds 5-10 kts, shifting south this evening. Increasing mid level clouds this evening with scattered showers possible along a cold front early Tuesday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.