textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Still looking like another active period setting up for Thursday into Friday with showers and storms. Flooding is possible with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

- Increasing heat and humidity with little to no rain chances (20% or less) this weekend into next week. Heat indices rise to 100 to 110 Sunday through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Pattern early this morning looks similar to 24 hours ago, with storms over western NE/KS slowly building eastward. Difference today is there is a pool of moisture now across eastern KS and SW MO. GOES Sounder data samples this airmass has a precipitable water of 1.5- 1.6 inches. Surface air is muggier too, with dewpoints in the mid 60s in our southwest forecast area. In this muggier airmass we expect a more widespread layer of low stratus to develop by daybreak and this could linger well into the day.

We also cannot rule out some sprinkles/light rain showers developing in our muggy airmass, as RAP/NAM time heights show some lift to about 700 mb through the morning hours. For the afternoon, those same models show some elevated instability which may spark off isolated to widely scattered storms as well along and south of the I- 70 corridor.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 137 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Model evidence continues to mount in a wet solution across the region as a potent shortwave crosses over a juicy airmass Thursday afternoon to Friday morning. Given those high pwat's mentioned above, we would see some high rain rates with the storms as they cross. As we get into Thursday night, several hi-res model solutions show east-west training going on with the storms as they cross MO, increasing the threat for flooding. Euro Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) signal is similar in strength to what we saw with the past weekend event, but farther south, basically south of the I-70 corridor instead of north. Long range ensemble members (LREF) have the axis of highest rainfall right along the I-70 corridor, and that's similar to what NBM has as well, though the latter has 50th percentile rainfall much higher than the LREF. Flood watches likely will be posted later today for this event.

In addition, storms will have some shear to work with so we cannot rule out some severe weather. Even as we work into the Thursday evening hours, the south side of that east-west band of precip will have some low-level shear and instability to work with. Model guidance pegs a warm front in the region as well to enhance that low- level shear. An active pattern to watch for as we close out the work week.

Friday and Friday night there could still be some lingering rains/storms with any residual outflow boundaries...as it will not take much lift in the remaining juicy airmass over the region. The forcing aloft will make for less organization though.

Saturday marks a transition day as we see a ridge building across the middle of the country. Winds will pick up from the south and low- level thicknesses will rise quickly, bringing temperatures above normal. Sunday through Tuesday that ridge aloft will strengthen and get locked in over the Ohio Valley, maintaining hot temperatures. EFI is not marking this as extreme warmth, but given the prolonged cool period we've had, those doing outdoor activities certainly will not the sudden change. Heat indices will get into the 100-110 degree range those three days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Stratus deck has been a bit finicky this morning...going solid for a few hours but now more isolated in coverage. Seeing a bloom expanding over NE KS this hour...so will keep in a chance for a broken 2500-3000 ft deck at each of the sites for a few hours this morning. Otherwise...we may see a few showers and storms south of I-70 this afternoon but coverage not big enough to note in this set of TAF's. Winds generally will be light much of the period, with a westerly direction this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.