textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms possible south of I-70.

- Better chances for showers and storms later this week with above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A weak upper level disturbance is lifting north into the area from southern Missouri this morning. This feature will washout across the area today however, a slight chance (15-25) for a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the southern CWA. Otherwise this feature will bring additional cloud cover to the southern half of the forecast area holding highs in the lower 80s and ranging to the mid 80s further north where mostly sunny skies are forecast. Tomorrow another slow-moving upper level disturbance will move northeast towards the area from the southern High Plains. this feature will remain parked over the area through Friday. This will provide the chance for showers and thunderstorms both days with the greatest coverage being diurnally driven occurring in the afternoon/evening. The bast chance for precipitation both day will be across the south CWA where PoPs range between 50-70%. Thursday looks to stay mainly dry across the northern CWA whereas Friday precipitation chances will increase to 20-40%. Despite thunderstorm chances Thursday and Friday, the severe threat is low due to weak shear and modest instability. Highs Thursday will range from the lower 80s south to the mid 80s north. With more widespread cloud cover on Friday highs will be uniformly in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Low end PoP chances (20-40%) continue into Saturday and Sunday as a upper level ridge begins to build across the central CONUS. As it does, weak shortwave are progged to round to ridge and bring the potential for those showers and a few storms to the area over the weekend. Despite the height rises provided by the upper ridge building across the region, cloud cover will hold highs in the low to mid 80s. Monday, a upper level trough dropping through the Great Lakes region will shunt the upper level ridge axis back to the west over the western High Plains as a surface ridge of high pressure begins to build into the area from the Upper Midwest. This will dry conditions out Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s. Tuesday, the surface ridge axis will move directly over the forecast area providing comfortable conditions with highs again in the low to mid 80s with low humidity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the pd with sct-bkn high clouds expected thru the pd. A pd of sct cigs around 5kft is fcst btn 16Z-22Z. Winds thru the pd will be out of the east btn 5- 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.