textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will build into the region this weekend and prevail through the remainder of the forecast. Heat index values will range from near 100 to 105 Sunday through Friday next week, with the hottest time frame coming Sunday and Monday when highs will approach 100.

- Low chances for precipitation (10-25%), almost nightly/early morning, across far northern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights plotted shows a strong upper ridge centered over the western Plains. This ridging will spread to the east this weekend and when combined with increasing southerly low-level flow, will result in temperatures climbing into the 90s over the southwestern half of the forecast area tomorrow, then the entire forecast area Sunday through the remainder of the forecast. Our current forecast has highs in the upper 90s Sunday and Monday across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. But there is some potential for temperatures to reach or exceed 100 degrees. The model certainty tool shows roughly a 10-20% chance of this occurring both Sunday and Monday. For this to be achieved, deeper mixing would need to occur, resulting in a drier airmass, similar to the deterministic GFS. This seems to be an outlier and what appears more likely to occur is a bit shallower mixing and not quite as dry an airmass. Regardless, the result is heat index values as high as 105 degrees from Sunday onward. We'll need to closely monitor this balance between forecast temperatures and dewpoints since slightly better moisture, like the deterministic NAM, would lead to more widespread heat index values closer to 105. Looking at ensemble probabilities for heat index values reaching 105 or greater, each day next week shows fairly low probabilities of exceedance, generally less than 10-20%. So while we may not hit our heat advisory criteria, this will still be a long stretch of time with unseasonably hot weather with highs 10-15 degrees above normal and overnight lows, particularly in urban areas, barely dropping below 80 degrees. Will continue to make the heat the primary message in our DSS packet as result.

The other thing to mention with this forecast is the low potential for precipitation to move into northern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas, on nearly a nightly/early morning basis. PoPs across the norther portions of the forecast area range generally from 10% to as high as 25%. For tonight, this is mainly due to isentropic ascent with a strong low-level jet focusing better chances further north of the forecast area. Chances diminish Sunday and Monday night/morning as the ridge axis is moving through. Beyond this, the ridge shifts east into the Southeast and that allows shortwaves to influence the area as well as the low-level jet to potentially focus across northern portions of the forecast area. This pattern may also support stronger moisture transport into the area, helping lead to better chances for precipitation if that can be focused.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds will begin to pick up and start gusting to 21-23kts after sunrise tomorrow morning as high pressure moves east and a tighter pressure gradient forms.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.