textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain chances return this morning (20-40%). Greater likelihood for rain arrives Thursday evening through Friday morning (40-80%). - Recent trends have helped qualm (but not eliminate) flooding concerns associated with rain chances in the coming days.

* Most river levels continue to recede with a few rivers still yet to crest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Upper air analyses now clearly depict a strengthening mid-level low off of the Northern Rockies. Over the coming hours and days, the upper-level jet will pull this cyclone to the south as it sends a couple of pulses through the Central Plains. The first of this pair is well on its way, having aided in the development of overnight showers along a mid-level moisture gradient extending from north central Kansas into southwestern Iowa. As we continue through the early morning, rain chances will improve ever so slightly across the region with increased saturation aloft. Morning PoPs have been kept on the lower end (20-40% along the MO/KS border with lower probabilities off to the east) given relatively poor forcing. Southwesterly mid/low level flow is expected to ramp up during the day, helping guide showers out of northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas into the area. Thursday evening, a second shortwave ejected through the Plains will supply a CVA maxima while isentropic ascent strengthens, especially south. This could set the stage for an extended period of rainfall beginning late Thursday and lasting through the early half of Friday. Probabilities for PWATs > 1" over the course of the event remain both high (near 100%) and widespread, but a signal for PWATs > 1.5" focuses in on areas south of I-70, particularly along the southern MO/KS border, early Friday morning. Trends have been such that QPF has lessened, now narrowing in on widespread accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5" with locally higher amounts possible. This has reduced flooding concerns, and in turn, resulted in changes to the ERO for Thursday and Friday. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall now exists roughly in the area south of I-670 and along and west of the I-49 corridors, a downgrade from the slight risk previously issued. Outside of this narrow area in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, the CWA is no longer outlooked for excessive rainfall.

Rain chances over the holiday weekend also appear to be on a downward trend as a surface cyclone follows more closely to the southern Missouri border. The greatest opportunity for shower/storm development (10-30% chance) would occur Saturday afternoon overnight into Sunday, mainly south of I-70. Contending with weak forcing, a general lack of instability, and poor shear profiles, anything that manages to develop would likely be the result of WAA/isentropic ascent. As such, expectations remain low for weekend precipitation.

The active weather pattern looks to continue into next week with H5 clusters show a deepening mid-level trough west of the Rockies. Not too dissimilar from this week, several shortwaves are expected to run across the Plains while the mid-level cyclone is bogged down by ridging along the East Coast. Though it is a bit too early to comment on the significance of any rainfall or storms with much certainty, ensembles do indicate the return of wet weather by mid/late week. Otherwise, the positioning of the ridge just to the east will promote southeasterly flow for much of the week, allowing for temperatures to sit in the mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to prevail with low chances for light rain on the front and tail ends of the TAF period at all four terminals. Winds will continue to be light out of the east.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.