textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous heat continues today. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect until 9 PM for areas generally along and south of the Missouri River.

- Additional thunderstorm chances Saturday night into Sunday, generally along and north of the Missouri River, with strong winds and locally heavy rainfall being the primary threats.

- Some relief from the heat is expected heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Broad 500-hPa ridging remains across across the majority of the CONUS, although the ridge has flattened out just a bit over the previous 24 hours or so. Several shortwaves can be noted moving through the upper-level flow, with the most notable ripple being located over eastern NE, northeastern KS, northwestern MO, and western IA. This shortwave is providing enough synoptic level forcing to produce some light showers across northern MO early this afternoon. While not super impactful, the showers, and associated cloud cover, are working to keep temperatures from climbing towards the previously forecasted mid-to-upper 90s. As such, have capped afternoon high temperatures to the upper 80s and low-90s north of the Missouri River. While dew points are in the low-to-mid 70s, heat indices north of the Missouri River are only expected to climb into the upper 90s and low-100s this afternoon, so the Heat Advisory has been cancelled. South of the showers and cloud cover, temperatures are still on track to reach the mid-to-upper 90s with heat indices around and above 105F, so the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 9 PM this evening.

At the surface, a stationary front remain positioned across northeastern KS and northern MO. This will be the focus point for any potential convection this evening and overnight. In a similar fashion to previous nights, most CAMs depict convection blossoming across eastern KS and northern MO as the LLJ interacts with the boundary. Expectation is for storms to develop between 02Z and 05Z and last through much of the overnight. Assuming storms are able to form(50-70% chance along and north of the Missouri River), they will have 2500-3500 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with. However, deep layer shear values are only expected to be on the order of 15-20 kts, so organized convection may be a bit more difficult to come by. This does not mean severe weather is impossible as storms may still be able to produce downbursts as they pulse up and down, so strong to damaging winds are possible tonight. PWATs also remain on the order of 2-2.5", which will allow storms to be very efficient rainfall producers and may lead to locally heavy rainfall beneath the strongest cores. This presents a flash flooding threat, particularly if storms are able to train over the same areas.

The front will begin to slide south overnight tonight, pushing through the KC Metro early tomorrow morning. Most of the hi-res guidance suggests that the front will exit the southern portion of the CWA by mid-to-late morning tomorrow bringing much needed relief from the heat and humidity. However, with the front progressing through the area, there will likely be a gradient in high temperatures, with low-90s possible across the southern portion of the CWA to low-80s further north. A few elevated showers and storms are possible (25-35% chance) across the area Sunday afternoon, but no severe weather is anticipated.

Monday will see the coolest temperatures in quite some time with highs topping out in the mid-80s. Precipitation chances are also near zero on Monday for the first time in a while with the cold front having fully exited the area. However, this brief benign pattern will be short lived as another shortwave moves across the Northern and Central Plains on Tuesday with an associated surface front dropping south towards the area. Differences in timing, placement, and intensity of the shortwave still exist between model suites (both deterministic and ensemble). However, a general consensus seems to be present regarding the environment ahead of the system, with 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE and 25-35 kts of deep layer shear ahead of the surface front. This parameter space points to a potential for organized convection and the chance for severe weather. This thinking is reflected in the SPC Day 4 outlook, which has the northern third of the area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather.

Model guidance diverges through the remainder of next week, however, it seems as though most point towards a northwest flow pattern setting up across the northern and central Plains, which may lead to a more active stretch of weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the TAF period, although some low end chances for showers/storms may bring brief periods of deteriorated conditions. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop late this evening along and north of the Missouri River, but timing and exact placement is still uncertain, so have opted to carry a PROB30 group in TAFs at KMCI, KMKC, and KSTJ. Storms should remain north of KIXD. Winds will be light and variable overnight with a stalled frontal boundary across the region. Winds will then shift to northerly early tomorrow morning as the front moves south and should remain fairly light (5-10 kts) throughout the day tomorrow.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025- 057-060-103>105.