textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous heat continues through the day, with isolated/scattered showers/storms across northern Missouri.

- Additional chances for precipitation through the next two days (15-30%), with some remaining uncertainty on timing/placement of activity tomorrow.

- Continued signal for storm system impacting overnight Thursday into Friday. Forecast remains dry through remainder of period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Hazardous heat remains a concern through the rest of today and tonight. Clearing skies in the wake of sparse cloud cover from remnant overnight activity has once again allowed ambient air temperatures to climb near the triple digits during the afternoon, with dewpoints remaining in the low/mid 70s across much of the forecast area. Heat indices have similarly climbed past the triple digits through the afternoon, with some observation sites reporting heat indices at/above 110 degF as the afternoon progresses. Ambient air temperatures will continue to climb for much of the area through the remainder of the afternoon with greater daytime heating under clear skies.

The only area that has the opportunity to stay below extreme heat warning criteria for the remainder of the day would be far northern MO, as showers/thunderstorms over south-central IA have generated a plume of cloud cover across much of that area. Overall storm motion with these storms has remained slow and southeasterly, with much of the activity weakening as it reaches the IA/MO border. Much of this has to do with the less favorable environment for continued thunderstorm development, with greater capping and less synoptic scale ascent separated from the boundary currently present over central IA. However, with favorable effective bulk shear ~30 kts and plenty of instability to tap into (~4500-5000 J/kg), elevated showers/storms still have the potential to produce strong winds and up to severe hail with the strongest storms. However, this potential remains low, with greater confidence in storms continuing to weaken as they traverse southeast away from better synoptic scale ascent.

Going into tonight, a weak boundary extending off a surface low presently situated over the western Great Lakes will push down from the north. As this boundary pushes through, advection of (relatively) cooler, drier air will take temperatures/dewpoints down by a few degrees, taking us out of our triple digit heat indices. Relative to the previous forecast, guidance has increasingly converged on the strongest push of the boundary occurring further east. Thus, the boundary's entrance into our forecast area looks to be closer to tomorrow morning. As it pushes downward, there is some opportunity for precipitation to develop along its leading edge. However, the greater opportunity for precipitation will come along a weak shortwave trough riding the periphery of the receding upper- level ridge. There is some disagreement on timing with recent CAM runs, with some guidance indicating storms will enter by the morning while others hold it off through early afternoon. Regardless, there is increasing confidence in the potential for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon. The greatest corridor for stronger activity remains out ahead of the boundary with greater MUCAPE as it sags southward, but marginal shear profiles and poor lapse rates lowers confidence in the potential for stronger thunderstorms with activity tomorrow. With this increasing precipitation potential, and considering building cloud cover along with the presence of the boundary, have held off on further issuance of heat headlines across central MO. However, there is still an opportunity for areas in the southern part of the CWA to see heat indices climb near advisory criteria during the day (20-40%) in advance of any clouds/rain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 401 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

For the remainder of the week, as the upper-level ridge continues receding eastward with amplified ridging setting up over the Great Lakes area and a shortwave ridge centered over the Mississippi River Valley, the forecast area will remain along the periphery of the atmospheric flow and see impacts from shortwave disturbances riding that flow. These impacts look to primarily be overnight, with Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning looking to be the onset of this "ridge rider" activity (30-50% PoPs). Wednesday evening into Thursday looks to be much the same, before a deepening upper-level trough digs down from the northern Plains Thursday night into Friday. For those who have been following along at home, this feature has been consistent through several forecast cycles. However, unlike previous cycles, there is greater agreement between synoptic guidance on the placement of this upper-level trough. The implication for our forecast area would be greater confidence in a boundary draped through the central CONUS invigorating chances for precipitation (50-70%) Thursday evening into Friday morning. Although specific details this far out are still not certain enough for a definitive statement on impacts, subsequent forecast cycles will have to monitor trends to evaluate if there is an associated severe/hydro threat with this activity. At present, there is a consistent, strong signal for this system to impact us by the end of the week. After the passage of this trough, upper-level ridging looks to build back in relatively quick, drying out the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Boundary is expected to shift north to south across the region leading to showers and thunderstorms. This activity is expected to be fairly high based, so visibility reduction should be very limited. VFR conditions are expected to continue.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025- 057-060-102>105.