textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and possibly a few storms this morning Tuesday morning. No severe weather is expected.

- Strong non-thunderstorm winds are likely Wednesday morning and early afternoon with gusts possibly exceeding 50 mph for a short time.

- There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening for central and northeast MO. Risk levels drop off to the northwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers are beginning to develop over southeast NE and northeast KS. A 35 kt LLJ has developed over north central KS and moisture advection is increasing. The jet will strengthen to 40-45 kts while veering into northeast KS during the next few hours. This will focus development along the KS/MO border through mid morning. Some CAMs are quite bullish with around a half inch of QPF centered near the KC metro. PoPs have been increased to 60-70 percent in that area with chance farther east away from the better moisture and the LLJ. A few thunderstorms are also possible given modest instability, but severe weather is not expected. Showers will slide southeast with the jet mid morning and dry weather expected for the rest of the day.

A trough will dig into the northern Plains tonight. Jet confluence at the base of the trough will increase speeds not usually seen in June. Also, a very strong 55-65 kt LLJ will develop overhead tonight. The boundary layer will be stable for much of the overnight which should keep gusts more sporadic, but following sunrise low level lapse rates increase and gusts should really ramp up as strong winds aloft are tapped into. By mid morning Wednesday, 40-50 kt winds will reside within the mixed layer. There very well may be gusts that reach these speeds through midday. The LLJ jet streak will slide east by afternoon as mixing maximizes. It will remain gusty through the day, but the intensity will gradually wane. A Wind Advisory may eventually be needed for Wednesday morning.

A cold front will begin approaching northeastern KS and far northwestern MO early afternoon, passing through the KC metro mid afternoon. This is a bit earlier than previous forecasts. Thermal ridging ahead of the front will bring hot and humid air northeast into northwest MO, but the front may be just fast enough to clear most of the KC metro before the cap breaks and convective initiation occurs around 21Z to the east. Convection will zipper southwest along the cold front into the evening. The parameter space remains very favorable for severe thunderstorms and supercells are still possible with all hazards. The greatest risk is across eastern and central MO where a level 3/5 severe risk resides. Coverage will be lower farther west, but the storms that do form may still produce 75 mph wind gusts and 2 inch hail. Heat indices ahead of the front may reach 100 with highs in the low to mid 90s and dew points near 70.

The front will clear to the southeast Wednesday evening but will stall across southern MO which may keep storm chances going across central MO into Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The front will remain across central MO through Thursday before resuming its push south Thursday night. High pressure will build into the MO/MS Valley Thursday night into Friday night before shifting east to the OH Valley Saturday. Low pressure will develop over Colorado Saturday and track east across the central Plains Saturday night. Rich moisture streaming north with pwats possibly greater than 2 inches will advect north on a strong LLJ which should result in widespread thunderstorms along the warm front Saturday night and Sunday. The evolution of this system still shows a lot of spread in the ensemble guidance, but the overall scenario is favorable for heavy rainfall totals and potential flooding.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorms across northern MO and northeast KS will continue southeast this morning. TAF locations will have a chance of TS through 14 or 15Z. Scattered mid level clouds follow for the rest of the period. Winds will be light until late tonight when very strong winds aloft begin to move in. That will result in an uptick with southwest winds after 07Z which will strengthen further just beyond the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.