textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Current H5 analysis shows relatively high amplitude mid/upper level ridging over the Plains between upper troughing off the West Coast and off the East Coast. At the surface, high pressure remains in place, resulting in mostly clear skies, light and variable winds, and temperatures in the mid 70s as of 2 PM. Clear skies and light winds will continue through the remainder of the afternoon hours and into tonight, with overnight lows in the lower 50s across most of the CWA. The upper ridge axis shifts further east closer to our region tomorrow as the western trough makes landfall across Southern California, with surface high pressure remaining overhead. This should increase temperatures a few degrees for tomorrow afternoon, with clear skies and nearly calm winds continuing.
As we head into Friday and into the weekend, mid/upper ridging in remains in place overhead, but the western trough should move toward the Four Corners region by Saturday night. This should help generate some increased cloud cover moving in from the west by Saturday and especially Sunday. Afternoon high temps should remain in the mid to upper 70s for Friday through Sunday, although the increased cloud cover overnight should keep overnight lows a few degrees warmer.
Most guidance wants to bring the aforementioned western trough and the associated cold front through the area Monday into Tuesday, bringing in cooler temperatures and slight chance PoPs (15% to 20%). The main question at this time is just how much colder will temperatures be, as the most recent NBM run shows the 25th and 75th percentiles for MaxT on Monday at MCI as 63 and 73 degrees, respectively, and 58 and 73 degrees, respectively, for Tuesday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Light and variable winds along with VFR conditions under generally clear skies are expected through the period.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None. KS...None.
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