textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated/high fire weather conditions from late this morning through Thursday. Today, the greatest risk area will be across north-central and northeast MO where a Red Flag Warning is in effect.

- Wintry weather possible this weekend. There is a ~30-45% chance of light snow with accumulations an inch or less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Elevated/high fire weather danger continues to be the main concern in the short term. A strong pacific front is moving through the area overnight. Behind this system much dryer air will move into area with dewpoint dropping into the upper teens and 20s this afternoon. The dewpoints coupled with downslope westerly flow driving highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s, will yield afternoon RH values in the 15 to 25 percent range. While wind will not be nearly as strong as yesterday winds will range in the 10-15 knot range for most of the area leading to elevated fire weather danger. However, across north central and northeastern Missouri winds will be a bit stronger with westerly gusty up to 25 to 30 knots which will push conditions into the critical fire danger and as such a red flag warning has been issued for this area. The elevated fire weather danger will continue into Thursday as a mid-level shortwave moves into the central Plains. This will force another cold front through the area Thursday. This front may bring a few light showers across the northern CWA (20-40% chance) nearer the stronger forcing however conditions should remain mostly dry particularly across the southern CWA. Behind the front dewpoint will again fall into the 20-30 percent range during the afternoon and evening with westerly to northwesterly winds gusting to 20-30 mp. Consequently, red flag conditions may be reached across the southern CWA where RH values dip into the 20-25% range...this will need to be monitored over the next 24 hours. CAA behind the front Thursday night into Friday will bring a return to near seasonal normal temperatures with lows Thursday night in the 20s and highs Friday in the 40s.

Friday into Friday night a surface ridge of high pressure will look to build into the area. Late Friday night into Saturday a series of mid-level shortwaves will move through the region. The 01Z NBM looks to produce light snow (30-45% chance) with these features with minor accumulations generally an inch or less. However, The 00Z GFS and EC now keep conditions dry with these features as the surface ridge over the area provides enough dry air that cannot be overcome. In addition, most members of the 00Z GEFS also keep conditions dry. consequently, the snow produced by the NBM for Saturday may be overdone. Dry air is then expected to prevail Saturday through Monday as a series of surface ridges keep conditions dry but also provide weak mixing which will keep temperatures seasonably cool with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Tuesday a upper level shortwave will move from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, this will provide height rises across the area in concert with WAA which will push highs back above normal into the upper 40s to upper 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conds are fcst to prevail thru the TAF pd as clr skies gives way incr high clouds aft 22Z. Winds will be out of the WSW around 10kts to begin the TAF pd. A few gusts to 20kts will be poss at MCI and STJ btn 18Z-22Z. Aft 22Z-23Z winds will become lgt and vrb before becmg SE/E aft 02Z-04Z btn 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ005>008-015>017. KS...None.