textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- The temperature roller coaster continues, with a quick warm- up through Thursday, followed by another sharp cooldown on Friday. Record temperatures are probable on Thursday (at least a 50 percent chance).

- A strong cold front will move through the region Thursday and Thursday night, bringing a chance (30 to 70 percent) of thunderstorms. Severe storms are possible (at least a 15 percent chance).

- Fire-weather concerns may become elevated again after the cold-frontal passage, especially in areas that receive little precipitation from the system on Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The forecast weather this week requires some marveling, as we are truly in swing season. The relatively cool temperatures we are experiencing today will be replaced quickly by warmer and warmer temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. Forecast highs jump a good 10 to 15 degrees daily through Wednesday and up to record levels by Thursday (upper 80s to lower 90s). The reason for this roller coaster is the presence of a highly anomalous ridge to our southwest and our location on its northeastern periphery, allowing us to be glanced occasionally by southeastward-surging continental polar air via northwest-flow perturbations. The ridge axis will progress eastward into the Plains on Thursday in advance of the next stronger vorticity maximum ejecting from the Rockies, bringing an exceptionally warm day to much of the central U.S. in advance of a southward- translating cold front from the northern Plains eastward to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Before then (i.e., through Wednesday), the pattern simply loads up via southerly return flow with highly stunted moisture return.

Most guidance keeps the front storm-free through Thursday afternoon as it approaches the CWA, with stout capping via the elevated mixed layer and ridge-related subsidence effects. However, as large-scale ascent via the aforementioned vort max reaches the central Plains Thursday evening, storms appear to erupt quickly along the front. The pre-convective environment will feature marginal to modest CAPE (500-1000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear (35-45 kt) for organized convection. The SPC Day-4 outlook includes a 15% risk area from northeastern Missouri eastward, and recent machine-learning convective forecasts outline much of our region in low probabilities of severe weather given this setup. Think the main question will be timing, with the strong capping likely precluding convective initiation for much of the day. This could allow the front to pass through much of the area dry (especially if the faster model solutions verify). Of note, models have been trending somewhat more aggressively with storm coverage in our county warning area for this event (in part owing to slightly slower frontal timing), with ensemble consensus today featuring PoPs greater than 50% in much of our area. Nevertheless, confidence is still low given several limiting factors in place.

The other weather impact of note this period will be the marginal fire-weather concerns during this warm-up, with daily minimum relative humidity commonly nearing 30 percent or lower, especially west of U.S. 65. Winds will be generally modest through Thursday, but as the southerlies commence on Tuesday, occasional gusts of 20 to 25 mph will certainly bring fire- weather concerns upward, especially given our prolonged dryness the past several months. Though green-up is occurring in much of the forecast area, residual dry fuels and recent fire behavior suggest conditions are still favorable for rapid fire spread if more critical fire-weather conditions occur. The most concerning day for fire weather in the short term is on Thursday, when temperatures will soar into the 80s and 90s with wind speeds approaching 20 mph (with higher gusts) in the afternoon. Even with gradual moisture return, minimum relative humidity may still reach 30 percent or lower.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

The main long-term concern is post-frontal fire-weather concerns on Friday.

As the cold front passes through the region Thursday night, storms are likely to shift southeastward from the area by Friday. With much colder temperatures via strong north winds, highs on Friday could be as much as 40 degrees colder than on Thursday. However, dew points will crash upstream of the front as well, leading to relative humidity below 30 percent in much of the area by Friday afternoon. This will be most likely in areas where precipitation is least likely in our region via the front (far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri), so another day of near-critical fire weather may end up occurring Friday afternoon in these areas.

Meanwhile, the upper pattern reloads into its very familiar western-U.S. ridge/eastern-U.S. trough configuration next weekend. As the central Plains will remain in the northwest flow between the two, we face the sharp cooldown at the close of the work week, followed by a quick warm-up during the weekend, with temperatures in the 70s again by Sunday. Long-range models suggest a considerably more active pattern the following week. Perhaps we can shake this seemingly unshakable pattern as March comes to a close.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A weak system will be moving through the region this afternoon and tonight, bringing mid-to-high cloudiness and maybe a few sprinkles. However, no impacts at the TAF sites are expected, and predominant VFR is forecast through the period. East winds around 10 kt this afternoon will become southeast tonight. A primarily southerly wind will develop late Tuesday morning, with a few gusts to 20 kt or so possible by midday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.