textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including heavy rainfall.

* Quiet weather early next week, then chances for storms return midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The short term is in for quiet a change with the most recent round of guidance having a more aggressive push northward with storm chances tonight. Moisture will return tonight as WAA strengthen across the region. The NAM, HRRR,& RRFS are by far the most aggressive models with the moisture gradient and storms that are expected to fire along it. With this more aggressive push of WAA storms are expected to fire along and north of the warm front. As we get the isentropic upglide for storms they should all largely be elevated. Forecast soundings are showing some good mid level lapse rates around 7C/km. So this will give areas roughly along a line from Kansas City to Sedalia and south a chance for some strong to severe storms overnight into early Saturday morning. The main concerns will be hail. Can't rule out severe level winds if storms congeal a bit or become top heavy and collapse (downbursts). Rain should become scattered and weaken heading into the morning commute.

There should a be a lull in activity for much of the EAX forecast area late morning into the early afternoon with WAA remaining in the mid to low levels. This should aid in environmental destabilization for additional storms in the late afternoon and evening. This second round of storms is expected across all of MO and eastern KS as a line of storms develops along an incoming cold front. There should be some PVA aloft to further aid in strong to severe storms with a shortwave trough moving through the upper level flow. The combination of the WAA and cold front should provide enough low level forcing to get some good updrafts along the line. It will be possible for a few storms to develop out ahead of the cold front so storm mode is expected to be super cellular to linear. With that all hazards will be possible across eastern KS and MO.

Looking at the flooding potential specifically, there is a flash flood watch out for the Kansas City Metro and generally for counties along and south of a line from US-50. The flooding threat is expected to start with tonight's round of storms and continues into Sunday morning. PWATs are high around 1.5 up to 1.9 inches across the area. The current flash flood watch highlights the areas most likely to receive heavy rain tonight into Saturday morning. There is expected to be an axis of 2-4 inches of rain within this area tonight. Additional showers and storms in the evening are expected to be much more progressive and have a lower chance for producing flash flooding. This will especially be true for areas that did not get rainfall overnight. For those locations that do get heavy rain tonight, any additional rain will exacerbate any ongoing flooding.

High pressure and slightly cooler conditions are expected to settle in behind the cold front for late Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a relief both from the heat and humidly and from precipitation until roughly mid next week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

As the shortwave trough pulls east southeast out of the Central Plains there will be a brief period of near zonal flow before the next trough swings through mid-week. This trough will be apart of a stronger low that is rotating around the Hudson Bay. This strong low to the north is expected to remain anchored in northern Canada throughout much of the extended. As the mid week trough moves east, a ridge is expected to build into the western CONUS and puts KS and MO on the edge of rising heights heading into the weekend.

More comfortable temperatures are expected to settle across the region Sunday and Monday with north to northwest flow at the sfc. Warming conditions are expected to return Tuesday as sfc high pressure moves east of the central Plains and southwesterly winds return. WAA will return out of the gulf and should bring temperatures back into the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints in the low 60s Tuesday are expected to gradually warm into the low to mid 70s ahead of the approaching upper level trough and sfc cold front. A sfc low pressure system is expected to move east from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes Region and drag a cold front across the Plains. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in timing of the frontal passage and how much the environment will destabilize out ahead of it.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are ongoing across the region this evening, but beginning to see cloud coverage increase. This will continue for the overnight, with winds generally from the SSE. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow morning, but confidence remains low so will continue with PROB30 mention. Dry weather resumes for the middle of the day, but there is growing confidence on a cluster of strong to severe storms pushing through all terminal sites after 20-21z tomorrow, impacting flight categories with reduced vis and lower cigs during TSRA.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for MOZ028-029-037-038-043>045-053-054. KS...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Saturday through Sunday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.