textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- 15-20% chances of showers and general thunderstorms through the morning.

- Better chances (35-60%) of showers and isolated storms arrive this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% S of Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread). - Above to well above normal temperatures continue through the forecast period, with the warmest conditions today through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Current conditions remain on the quiet side of the spectrum across the area, but may not remain so in some cases as we work through the remainder of the overnight and through the morning. A plume of increasing WAA/moisture advection/isentropic lift has been well noted on deterministic guidance for the last coupe of days. This has been most notable on around the 305-310k surfaces or around the 850- 750mb layers. Improving, but still fairly marginal lapse rates and lack of supportive effective wind shear among guidance will limit the opportunity to some scattered showers and general thunderstorms across the CWA. Chances will spread northeastward from now through the morning hours before more general subsidence and drying within the previously mentioned layer occurs by the afternoon. All said, chances remain on the lower end of the spectrum, around 20 percent or less. This general activity/potential can currently be seen on GOES imagery, including the Nighttime Microphysics composite among others, via bubbling cloud cover and regional mosaic radar with some showers already over the SGF CWA. Otherwise, a breezy day with low pressure building over the Colorado Front Range today. Expect southerly winds 15-20+ mph and gusts pushing 30+ mph. Temperatures also rebound on the heels of the stronger southerly flow, back into the upper 70s and low 80s.

The pattern remains on track to become increasingly more active through the remainder of the work week and move into the weekend. A northern stream shortwave trough and attendant surface low over southern Canada will push a cold frontal boundary across the Northern Plains today. Building surface high behind this wave will push said boundary into portions of Kansas and Missouri this evening and overnight and introduce precipitation chances to NE Kansas and NW/N Missouri. This will be best chance for appreciable precipitation in a number of days. Lapse rates and wind profiles are not supportive of much more than showers and a few rumbles of general thunder.

Boundary drifts southward Thursday, likely stalling out in an east- west fashion over Central Missouri by the afternoon. This will bisect the area temperature wise with northern areas toward the lower 70s and areas south of the Missouri River closer to the low 80s. Some question to the extent/coverage of precipitation as the area too looks to be in the 'saddle points' between a couple areas of surface high pressure (to the N and SE) and broad lower pressure over the western High Plains. Basically, how much convergence and lift is achieved is a bit questionable. Best chances may be westward into Kansas where southerly flow into the boundary may be stronger. Any precipitation development will again be in an environment of poor to moderate lapse rates and weak wind shear profiles, yielding a showers to general thunder threat primarily for areas near and south of the Missouri River and I-70 during the afternoon to early evening hours. By the evening and overnight, additional opportunities for precipitation begin to blossom over W to NW/N areas of the CWA has boundary lifts northward in response to boundary lifting back northward as a warm front. This activity may linger well into Friday over northern Missouri, especially as you push eastward where the boundary is expected to struggle to push northward. Again, nothing more than showers to general thunder potential there as well.

Late Friday into the weekend a mid-level shortwave trough is expected to lift into the area, but some uncertain lingers in its exact path and ultimately precipitation chances and timing. The 00z run of the major deterministic models range from widespread showers (GFS) to largely overcast but on the dry side (Euro/Canadian) for Saturday/Halloween. This too is reflected within their respective ensembles and ultimately yields widespread PoPs of 30-60 percent within NBM guidance. Temperatures remain on the warm side of seasonal norms, but cooling some from the mid-upper 70s for many on Friday into the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend. Some of that will be dependent on precipitation coverage as well with noted 25th/75th MaxT spreads of 5-8 deg F.

Peeking into next week, sizable western CONUS trough and southern stream cutoff low look to merge and work inland. This potentially sets up an active/wet period through the first half of the new work week. Much to iron out there with vastly different progressions depicted among the Euro/GFS/Canadian deterministic runs, but all currently yield a yet/active look and tends to be reflected as well within their ensemble output.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the sites. The caveat being a frontal boundary that will begin to drop into the area toward the latter portions of the TAF period, which may allow for showers/thunderstorms to develop in and around KSTJ/KMCI. Have opted for a PROB30 at both sites to account for this. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds today 15 to 20 kts and gusts as high as 25 to 30 kts then gradually easing through the evening and overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.