textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of light to moderate snow showers will continue this afternoon, particular across north-central Missouri. Brief reductions in visibility are possible, but no significant travel impacts are anticipated.

- After a brief warmup on Sunday, a reinforcing shot of Arctic air will arrive Sunday night. Wind chill values Monday morning will range from -5 to -15 degrees.

- Temperatures will moderate back to typical values for the remainder of the work week, with a small chance of precipitation returning to the forecast Friday night into next Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

The much-awaited deep troughing has set up over the central and northern Great Plains. A vertically-stacked H5/H3 disturbance in central IA continues to aid in generating areas of light to moderate snow showers, especially across northern Missouri. So far, impacts have been limited to brief drops in visibility, but there is a nonzero risk that repeated rounds of light snow could cause a few slippery spots to develop. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for north-central MO to highlight this potential through 6 PM.

Tonight, the snow showers and flurries will taper off as H5 height briefly rise over the region. This will also allow the influence of a broad surface high across the southern Great Plains and Mid-South to push high temperatures back to near normal values on Sunday. However, it will be a chilly start to the day, with low temperatures in the single digits and teens and wind chill values of zero to -10 degrees.

The reprieve from the cold will be short-lived, as a secondary Arctic cold front will push through the region Sunday late afternoon into the evening. Like with the previous system on Friday, isolated to scattered snow showers or flurries will be possible again, particularly in northwest and north-central MO. However, low- level dry air will be particularly robust, with dew point depressions of 15-20 degrees across the area. This should limit greatly any potential accumulations to nothing or a very light dusting.

Bitter cold is again forecast for MLK Jr. Day on Monday, as a progged 1038 mb surface high descends upon the area from the Alberta/Saskatchewan region. Morning lows on Monday will again fall into the single digits and lower 10s. However, winds will be blustery from the northwest, sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. This will yield apparent temperatures of -5 to -15 degrees, with the coldest values in far north and northeast MO. Depending on trends over the next 24 hours, a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed for this area. High temperatures on Monday will climb into the upper 10s and lower 20s under mostly sunny skies.

From Tuesday through Thursday, temperatures will moderate back towards normal values as the synoptic flow pattern transitions to a NW baroclinic zone. Cannot rule out needing periods of small precipitation chances during this period as small vorticity maxima pass over the region, but PoPs will remain silent at this time. Friday into next weekend, a transition to a more zonal H5 flow regime will commence. The next chance of mentionable PoPs will arrive Friday night into Saturday, as model guidance has come in to better agreement regarding a southern-stream disturbance developing in the Mid-South and moving into the Ohio Valley. This will bring a return of chances of rain or a rain/snow mixing, with the best chances at this time being across southwest MO and Mid-MO.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 506 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds may be slow to lose their gusts this evening so have kept gusts going through 01Z. Overnight, winds trend westerly and then southwesterly by late tomorrow morning. Winds increase and become gusty again late tomorrow morning through the remainder of the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.