textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. The Extreme Heat Warning was extended through Saturday for counties along and south of the Missouri River, with a Heat Advisory on Saturday for northern Missouri.

- Chance of storms (50-70%) overnight tonight. Severe chances are low, but should storms strengthen then hail and wind are the main hazards.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon/evening and into the overnight. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, along with pockets of heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 507 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Presently, the upper-level ridge that has been the driver of our dangerous heat this past week continues sliding off to the east. Impulses traversing the upper-level flow continue to dampen its effects over our area, and will leave us open for several opportunities for showers/storms in the coming days. Overnight, a complex of storms over central Iowa has slowly pushed southward, but has effectively remained stationary due to weak northerly upwind propagation contesting with opposing flow out of the south/southwest. As these storms have remained mostly stationary, our area has remained rain-free through the night. The latest CAM guidance pushes a bulk of this activity off towards the north and east through the remainder of the overnight into the morning as activity weakens and begins to follow southwesterly flow around the upper-level ridge. However, some low chances (15-30%) exist for precipitation to reach far northern Missouri through the morning hours along outflow boundaries. These storms are expected to remain nonsevere, as activity remains elevated and overall organization of storms remains poor with lower effective shear.

Dangerous heat will continue to be a concern through the day today, with heat indices between 100-110 degF owing to continued warm, moist flow out of the south/southwest as the ridge takes its time meandering off to the east. However, unlike the previous few days of oppressive heat with no precipitation, chances for precipitation (50- 70%) return this evening/overnight. A shortwave ejecting off the Rockies will prompt the development of an MCS that will traverse the central Plains. However, confidence in the exact timing and placement of this activity is not high. CAMs are scattered with their resolutions of convective activity, and recent runs have not made this picture any clearer with a lack of consistency with earlier simulations. As it stands, a bulk of this forecast will rely on real-time environmental analysis, consideration of which models initialize the environment the best ahead of activity, and watching for eventual convergence on solutions. What is known regarding this event is that there will be a potent amount of instability in place, with ~3000-4000 J/kg of MUCAPE to work with, and steep low/mid-level lapse rates that will prompt a threat for severe wind/hail. Adequate bulk shear around 30-40 kts will help promote organized convection, which increases concerns for severe potential. Confidence is still highest in the greatest potential for activity remaining in the late evening/overnight period, with CAMs isolating activity to around/after midnight. With high PWAT values and deep warm cloud layer depths, excessive rainfall and hydrological issues are a concern with activity alongside severe potential, especially if any activity stalls out through the night and prolongs rainfall over a specific area.

Previous convective activity will help dictate where "cooler" temperatures Saturday will reside. Northern Missouri will see lower apparent temperatures relative to previous days, while much of central/southern Missouri will still be under oppressive heat indices in the triple digits. As such, heat headlines split to represent this difference between advisory and extreme heat criteria. Saturday will still have opportunity for convective activity through the day, with high MUCAPE ~4000-5000 J/kg building during the day. The focal point of forcing for this day appears to be off of a boundary draping down from the previous day's shortwave as it traverses off towards the Great Lakes. Like the previous day, greater potential for precipitation appears during the late evening/overnight along a stronger trough axis, with scattered activity during the afternoon. With this activity, effective bulk shear around 25-30 kts implies that activity, while having the potential to organize, may not be as robust as the previous day's activity. However, with adequate mid-level lapse rates, any robust storms that are able to develop will carry a risk for wind/hail. As the forecast continues to evolve going into the weekend, remain weather aware, especially if you are planning any activities...

Residual activity on Sunday is expected to clear out through the day as amplified ridging builds over the area going into next week. Under semi-zonal flow, some uncertainty exists with the exact details regarding the overall evolution of the synoptic profile through the week. Perturbations in the upper-level flow could lead to a wetter pattern, while stronger ridging could keep us within our hot pattern for the forseeable future. At present, more synoptic guidance is hinting at a drier, warmer forecast through the first half of the week... Future forecast iterations will have to observe this trend to see if it holds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A line of convection from northwest Missouri into east central Kansas has moved slowly east this morning and reach KSTJ around midday. The line is expected to continue east through the early afternoon with -TSRA at KMCI/KMKC. The line is slowly moving ENE and at this time expect impacts to remain north of KIXD. After a lull in activity additional thunderstorms will move from NW to SE across Missouri overnight and early Saturday morning with thunderstorm impacts likely across all sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057- 060-103>105. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ102. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.