textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing drizzle may be possible through early this morning for areas north of the Missouri River. A few slick spot may be possible on elevated surfaces.

- Very active weather pattern continues throughout the week with several shower and thunderstorm chances. The severe weather threat looks low at this time however, a few strong storms may be possible Tuesday night.

- With several rounds of showers and thunderstorms this week, flooding may become a concern later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Drizzle is expected to come to an end by mid-morning and any slick spots should improve quickly as temperatures rise into the 40s by noon with highs topping out in the mid 40s to near 50. Tonight, a stationary surface front will extend from central Arkansas back into central Oklahoma. A southwesterly 40-50kt LLJ will override this surface front and nose into the area providing lift for showers to develop across the southwestern CWA which will lift northeast overnight. With 500-800J/Kg of MUCAPE available it is possible isolated to widely scattered storms may be possible. The LLJ remains focus over the area Tuesday as the stationary front south of the area begins to lift northward towards and into the southern CWA as a warm front. This will continue shower chances through the day Tuesday (60%-90%). The warm front lifting into the area will also create a wide temperature spread across the CWA with high temperatures in the 50s north of the Missouri River but in the 60s to lower 70s south of the River. Tuesday night, an upper level trough will move from the eastern Rockies into the western Plains. This associated will the reintensification of the LLJ nosing into the area will provide the forcing and lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front across the area. There is the potential for a few storms to be strong across the southern CWA with MUCAPE values around 500J/Kg and effective shear of 35-45kts. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threats.

Extended Discussion

By midweek, a strong, negatively tilted low-pressure system will sweep across the Southern Great Plains and into the Midwest. Early Wednesday morning, the surface low-pressure center will find itself hovering over Kansas City. An attendant cold front draping south from the low is expected to extend into Oklahoma and Texas. This boundary is expected to interact with a warmer, more unstable airmass to the south. As noted in yesterday's extended forecast discussion, the environment looks to be pretty substantially capped throughout the day. GFS forecast soundings do exhibit steep mid- level lapse rates Wednesday morning and early afternoon, but a significant amount of forcing would be necessary to overcome the inversions beneath. NAM forecast soundings, on the other hand, are a bit more generous with steeper low-level lapse rates that could allow for shallower convection. Needless to say, not sold on Wednesday's daytime/evening convective threat this far north, but still a forecast to monitor the evolution of. That said, we could still see some light precipitation during the day Wednesday overnight into early Thursday morning.

Better signals for convection exist Thursday evening through Friday night/early Saturday morning. A strong low-level jet sets up Thursday evening, persisting through the overnight hours and over the course of the day on Friday. This LLJ looks to increase instability and low-level saturation, particularly Friday afternoon. Based on early assessments, the potential for strong/severe convection looks best Friday afternoon and evening. There is still an appreciable amount of uncertainty regarding this event, however. Beyond acknowledging the potential for convection late week, little more can be said with confidence at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

IFR conditions persist through the period. CIGs near to below 1000ft are anticipated through the period. Some windows of low MVFR are possible. Some light DZ is possible for the next couple of hours along the MO/KS border, but is likely to be west of the terminals.

Winds remain generally easterly through the period. Another wave of showers is expected to move into the region at the tail end of this TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-032-033. KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ025- 102.