textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures Today through the weekend. Much above normal early next week.

- Next chance for rain arrives Tuesday and linger through the end of the week as a more active weather pattern sets up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A weak front or surface trough will move east through the area today as upper-level ridging expands eastward. Strong warm advection aloft and westerly surface winds will help temperatures to climb into the middle 50s across eastern KS and western MO. This will be a precursor of things to come for Sunday and into next week, but prior to that, another weak cold front moves southward through the area on Friday. That front will knock a high temperatures down a few degrees for Friday, especially for the areas north of Highway 36 and west I- 35, where highs could be 10 degrees cooler than the previous day. This will all depend on the timing of the front through, but the front seems likely to be moving through the middle of the forecast area early in morning, and through the entire forecast area by late morning to early afternoon. Cooler, but still above normal, temperatures continue Saturday. Temperatures warm to well above normal levels Sunday - Tuesday as the upper ridge spreads eastward, with strong warm advection in the lower and mid-levels. Highs will climb into the 60s across the entire forecast for Monday.

Increasing cloud cover, and the addition of some low chances for rain, will cool temperatures down a few degrees for Tuesday. Rain chances increase for Wednesday and Thursday with now a roughly 30- 50% chance for rain Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The best chances for rain will be south of I-70. This will be a result of the upper ridge weakening as a cold front pushes south into the area and interacts with deeper and richer moisture that had advected northward in the warm advection regime from the previous couple of days. The pattern looks more active later next week as broad southwesterly flow develops ahead of a large trough moving into the southwestern US. This will need to be watched for wintry weather returning to the forecast area. The GFS moves precipitation over the 540dam, 1000-500mb thickness line and has subfreezing temperatures aloft Thursday night into Friday. Ensemble guidance also brings low probabilities for accumulating snow back to northern MO, providing support for the deterministic GFS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1056 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High MVFR conditions dominate the overnight. A BKN to OVC stratus deck is expected to linger through the overnight before opening up after daybreak ahead of the arrival of a cold front. Winds start light then shift out of the SW before daybreak. Some BR/FG VIS impacts are possible at STJ; however, low stratus may limit cooling and BR/FG development. Winds accelerate through the morning hours pivoting to NW after the frontal passage during the afternoon. Gusts are expected both ahead of and behind the front. Winds dissipate and skies clear after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.