textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Wintry precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon through Monday. All precipitation types are possible with this event.

- An unsettled weather pattern sets up next week with multiple rounds of rain, and even thunderstorms, possible. The severe weather threat remains low, though there is concern for flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A few showers can't be ruled out Saturday, mainly south of the Missouri River. This will be associated with the surface front that will be draped across the middle of the forecast and a weak mid- level shortwave trough moving across the area.

Focus then shifts to the main system coming in Sunday afternoon, affecting the area through Monday. This forecast remains extremely challenging with regards to precipitation type. But this forecast is similar to the previous forecast, showing a wintry mix continues to look most likely along the along the I-70/ Missouri River corridor to possibly as far north as the Highway 36 corridor. North of this area, confidence is high in minor accumulating snow. And south of the aforementioned area, confidence is high in mainly just rainfall. Across the middle sections of the forecast area, critical temperatures remain in the range to lead to sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain. It's just the definition of a wintry mix. Fortunately, with temperatures being so warm in this area Friday, and a gain on Saturday, the potential for accumulating freezing rain is lessened due to the latent heat of the ground. Bridges, overpasses, and elevated surfaces will be the main things impacted by any freeing rain. Additionally, the mixed precipitation cuts down on any snow accumulations through this area and with temperatures only down to near freezing by Monday morning, accumulations may be limited to grassy surfaces.

For next week, it looks wet and rainy, with potential for a few rounds of thunderstorms. While the pattern favors multiple chances for precipitation, there is a lot of variability in the timing of each system. This tends to spread out temporally the chances for precipitation, resulting in at least a chance for rain during every period of the forecast from Tuesday onward. However, there are several periods where precipitation looks more likely. First, Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models show a good potential for showers and possibly thunderstorms. The GFS shows a vigorous shortwave moving across the middle of the country and is the most aggressive with precipitation through this time frame. The GEM and the ECMWF show a different setup though still produce QPF in the area. The second better chance arrives later next week with another more robust system moving across the middle of the country. Despite the timing/placement differences in the models, there continues to be robust probabilities for heavy rain through the week. The NBM continues to show 30-50% chances for at least 2 inches of rain for the 72-hour period ending Saturday morning, and continues to show 10- 20% chances for at least 3" of rain for the same time frame. There's even low probabilities for at least 4" of rain. Given this, there is potential for flooding next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated for the duration of the period. Winds circumnavigate the compass rose today starting out of the NE shifting to SE by the daytime hours. A front moves through the region during the afternoon swapping winds from SE to NW. A small pocket of intermittent gusts are expected between sunrise and the front's arrival during the afternoon. Winds become northerly and slow after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.