textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Diminishing showers and a few storms this afternoon/ early evening.

- Better chances for showers and storms return tomorrow morning into the afternoon.

- There is a small chance for strong storms in far northeastern KS and northwestern MO Thursday night as a complex of thunderstorms moves southeastward.

- Cooler and less humid conditions are expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

For this afternoon, a weakening MCV, evident in the diminishing radar returns, is slowly tracking to the southeast. This may bring spotty showers and storms to eastern KS and western MO for the remainder of the afternoon, but it seems likely that the diminishing trend will continue with most areas staying dry to only seeing a trace of precipitation. Otherwise, overnight and into tomorrow morning, another area of showers and storms looks possible as the overall setup is similar. In a very moist atmosphere, with PWAT values near/just above 2" in eastern KS and western MO, at the interface of the surface high to the east, and weak mid-level flow aloft, an area of weak isentropic ascent sets up. This should provide just enough ascent to lead to precipitation development. This may be aided by any upstream convection and potential MCV that isn't readily apparent in any model depiction yet, or even generated yet. The RAP does hint at some of this potential with some internal PV noted from 600-400mb. Such is forecasting on the east side of the upper ridge within weak/modest northwesterly flow.

A stronger shortwave trough will track across the northern edges of the upper ridge Thursday evening and overnight. Forcing associated with this shortwave should lead to an area of storms developing to our northwest, that then tracks southeastward with time, affecting the forecast area Thursday night to Friday morning. Models show modest instability and shear into the area through the overnight hours. Given this, and the propensity for northwest flow convective systems to track further southeast than anticipated, a few strong to marginally severe storms look possible for northeastern KS and northwestern MO, in this pattern.

In the wake of this system cooler and much drier air will settle into the area. Dewpoints in the low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday will be a welcomed relief compared to the low to mid 80 degree dewpoints we experienced last weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A decaying MCV is tracking slowly through extreme SE Neb/ NE KS/ NW MO. This has led to a persistent area of showers and occasional storms that have been on downward trend over the last few hours. This should continue but there may be another few hours so have added some -RA for the initial several hours of the forecast. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the evening and overnight hours. Tomorrow morning, another area of showers/storms may develop, perhaps a little farther east than this morning's convection, affecting the terminals. With confidence in timing and location still uncertain, and it being in the last 6 hours of the forecast, have not mentioned any precipitation yet.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.