textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions through the weekend with highs near to slightly above normal for this time of year.

- Periodic showers and storms continue through the weekend. Limited potential for any strong to severe storms until potential Sunday evening or overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Water vapor imagery with 500mb heights overlaid shows an Omega Block- like pattern over the CONUS, with one low centered near Ontario/Quebec and the other moving into the Great Basin. Locally, upper-level ridging is occurring with another weak disturbance noted over Arkansas and southern Missouri. This feature is helping to lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms from eastern Kansas into southeastern Missouri, with the greatest coverage of activity to the southeast of the KC area. Additionally, subtle shortwaves are noted rounding the base of the Great Basin low, and that is aiding the development of new showers and storms. Overall, we may see this activity linger into the late afternoon and evening, before some decrease in coverage occurs from diurnal effects but also the area moving into some subsidence behind one of the aforementioned shortwaves. This decrease may be shortlived as another shortwave moves into the Central Plains overnight and into tomorrow morning. With the moist atmosphere in place, forcing associated with this shortwave will get additional showers and storms going across central and eastern Kansas that then propagate eastward late tonight/ early tomorrow morning. The potential for any of this activity to be severe is fairly low as instability looks weak with weak shear. A stronger wave moves into the Central Plains Saturday night to Sunday morning, and the process above repeats itself with more showers and storms looking possible Sunday morning. How all this unfolds will play a large role in the potential for strong to potentially severe storms Sunday afternoon/ evening. Models show the potential for strong instability to build across the region by Sunday afternoon with increased flow aloft leading to stronger shear profiles. If a storm can develop in this atmosphere, it will have to potential to become severe. Otherwise, it looks warm and humid with temperatures about 5 degrees above normal for Sunday.

Temperatures look to trend warmer next week as upper-level ridging becomes more pronounced across the center of the CONUS. This looks most pronounced for the early part of next work week when highs may approach 90 with continued humid conditions. This combination should lead to heat index values in the mid to upper 90s and some areas in our south approaching 100.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 552 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Spotty showers across the area should undergo diurnal weakening with sunset approaching. Could see some MVFR ceilings develop towards 10Z Saturday morning, along with a renewed threat for isolated showers. Any shower activity looks to weaken after 15Z, and remain fairly isolated through the remainder of the day. With coverage expected to remain fairly spotty, have maintained dry forecast at the terminals with the exception of showers near KSTJ over the next few hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.