textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- One More Cooler Day Monday

- Rapid Warm Up Starts Tuesday

- Rain Forecast Late Wednesday into Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Large scale synoptic pattern through the overnight features a long- wave trough over the eastern third of the CONUS with amplified ridge axis moving across the northern Rockies. Strong H3 and H5 height gradient is present across the Central CONUS resulting in a strong jet stream that then feeds into the base of the deep trough along the east coast. Over the past several hours, the strong flow from the ridge upstream has provided strong dAVA developing a strong surface anticyclone centered over the Canadian Prairie provinces but ridge of surface pressure ridge extending all the way into the far southern Plains, and has kept conditions in our region clear. This will continue to keep sky conditions mostly clear for most of the day on Monday. Overall flow will still remain northerly, which will keep temperatures in the upper 30s across most of the area on Monday, but the winds are not expected to be as blustery with surface pressure gradient decreasing.

Late Monday into early Tuesday, two mid-level short-waves are progged to ride through the ridge pattern emanating from a PV anomaly over the Pacific. The strong lower-level WAA over the desert southwest should help to keep the ridge amplified, but enough dCVA should start early Tuesday into the Front Range and another area in the Northern High Plains. This shifts the 850mb thermal ridge axis eastward, with lift promoting lee cyclogenesis. By the late morning morning on Tuesday, surface pressure falls should expand eastward across the Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley, resulting in strong southwesterly flow and WAA across the region. This will provide a drastic boost to afternoon temperatures on Tuesday, with lower 60s in eastern KS and western MO (NBM members favoring at a 70 percent chance of hitting 60F or higher), with upper 50s in central and northern Missouri. Also expecting gusty southwesterly winds for most of the afternoon on Tuesday, along strong boundary layer mixing through the afternoon could produce wind gusts between 25-30 MPH. Wednesday, PV anomaly off the Pacific Northwest Coast shifts eastward and sends a a stronger shot of vorticity that will begin to de-amplifiy the ridging pattern. This forces the Front Range surface cyclone into the far southern Plains, and is expected to stall any warm front propagation toward our forecast area through Wednesday. Meanwhile, dCVA drastically increases into the Northern Plains and will force another surface cyclone eastward into the Upper Midwest. This overall low-level synoptic pattern cuts-off prominent WAA through Wednesday, and eventually a trailing cold front from the northern system moves southward to around the Interstate 70 corridor. For Wednesday this will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area. If the cold front is delayed prior to peak heating, there is some potential we could see lower 60s around Interstate 70 and southward, and amongst NBM members probabilities for exceeding 60F on Wednesday afternoon is around 40 percent. Late Wednesday evening and that cold front is progged stall between Interstate 70 and the Ozarks Region of Missouri. If there is enough moisture, weak convergence along the boundary may result in light rain activity.

During the overnight hours into early Thursday, another mid-level short-wave ejects from the Pacific Northwest and will provide reinforcing height falls and dCVA over the southern and central Plains, with flow providing stronger steering the southern Plains surface cyclone by moving northeastward, with a secondary area of lift occurring over the eastern Plains. Surface pressure falls will continue through most of the morning and afternoon on Thursday, and enhancing convergence along the previously stalled boundary. Most of the WAA is currently progged to remain south of Interstate 44, but previous 850mb moisture transport from Wednesday should lead the way for rain shower activity to increase in coverage through most of Thursday. Ensemble guidance continues to trend upward in probabilities for precipitation on Thursday, with the GEFS specifically coming in over 70 percent. Other ensemble suites are still holding closer to 50 percent, and this appears to be tied to where the final stalled position of the cold front occurs. While in agreement of increasing potential for precipitation occurrence, we are still seeing large spread in how the evolution of the surface cyclone deepens and propagates through Thursday, which is leading to the larger spread in QPF outcomes for the event. The GFS and GEFS is the most robust with QPF through Thursday, painting between 0.20- 0.25 inches, while ECMWF and NAM are considerably less. Some individual ensemble members struggle to produce more than just a few hundredths, but, have a a large areal coverage of that few hundredths. Temperatures remain warm enough for this to remain rain, the freezing temperatures and wintry mixes are still forecast much further north of the forecast area. A quick peak at convection parameters shows very little in the way of instability, given that the bulk of the warm sector with this system likely remains well south of Interstate 70.

Friday and Saturday of next week likely to be marked by a strong surface anticyclone that moves in behind the exiting system that should clear conditions. H5 ridge over the southern CONUS propagates slightly eastward, enough to promote adiabatic compression warming over the Rockies with 850mb and 700mb flow providing WAA into the lower Missouri River Valley that should help to boost temperatures back upward. Inner-quartile spread for temperatures though is quite large toward the end of the forecast period, and this may be attributed to increased cloud-cover potential by lingering moisture from the exiting system. Some ensembles then hint at more precipitation activity heading into Sunday next weekend but overall consensus is low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions to prevail across TAF sites through the period and beyond. Winds remain out of the NW overnight with a gradual shift more northerly. By around and after 12z, surface high pressure slides through the region, allowing winds to go light and variable for much of the daytime. By around 00z, prevailing southerly winds settle into the TAF sites. Peeking into subsequent periods, southerly winds increase and become gusty by Tuesday daytime.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.