textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Air Through Tuesday Morning

- Closer to Normal Temperatures Tuesday Afternoon and Wednesday

- Another Cold Air Push End of Week, With Some Snow Potential

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Strong cyclone is still sitting over the Great Lakes Region along with mid-level trough axis. The strongest jet stream activity has moved east of our area, though mid-level flow is still quite brisk with notable height gradient at both H5 and H3. Strong surface anticyclone is pushing southeastward through the Northern Plains, and has pushed the cold front into the Ozarks Region, pushing the Arctic Airmass into the forecast area. Stronger pressure gradient remains in place across the lower Missouri River Valley through the afternoon, until the center of the surface anticyclone is able to arrive. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the entire forecast area today. Overnight, modest dAVA pushes southeastward and will force the center of the surface anticyclone in that direction as well. This will reinforce cold air advection and send air temperatures into the teens, with single digit air temps possible in our northeastern zones near the Kirksville area.

For Tuesday, portions of the Sierra Nevada range will experience the the arrival a mid-level ridge axis, while a PV anomaly over western Canada sends a short-wave trough axis along the Rockies. Modest dCVA into the Front Range will kick off Lee Cyclogenesis, and will also push the Monday's surface anticyclone further south and east. By the afternoon hours on Tuesday, this will turn low-level flow southerly and push a warmer airmass back into the lower Missouri River Valley, brining temperatures closer to normal. The far northeast zones of the forecast area on Tuesday may still struggle to reach above freezing. Wednesday this short-wave trough passes over the area and forces the weak surface cyclone across Missouri, and the warmer air should push across the entire forecast area. Southwest portions may see upper 40s, while northeast Missouri climbs into the upper 30s and lower 40s. While there will be some lift, current guidance does not depict robust moisture transport, therefore limiting precipitation chances even though there will be a few sources for lift. The better moisture transport will be east of the Mississippi River Valley and then eventually wraps around back into Iowa. Current ensemble probabilities keep precipitation southeast of the area, and then another region across Iowa.

For the end of the work week, another short-wave is progged to move southward, but the bulk of the forcing moves through the Upper Midwest and toward the Great Lakes Region, considerably northeast of the forecast area. Most of Missouri will remain on the anticyclonic side of the jet, which will allow a surface high to begin to push through the area, bringing a cooler airmass once again. Heading into the weekend, model guidance spread is quite large, but overall pattern depicts a strong cold front moving through the Central CONUS brining sub freezing temperatures again into the weekend, with potential for a few mid-level vort maxima to advect from troughing over the southwestern CONUS. This may lead to the potential for snow or some kind or wintry precipitation over the weekend. Overall probabilities are fairly low for precipitation, but this is largely due to timing differences amongst individual ensemble members. While the cold front appears to quite impressive, the solutions that are suggesting precipitation are relatively low with QPF, thus not showing anything overly impressive for our forecast area. This will largely be tied to how strong the mid-level forcing is for our area, and, what the moisture return will look like.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. A cold front is moving through eastern KS and western MO currently, with winds increasing markedly behind the front. These strong winds are short-lived and decrease within 1-2 hours, though remaining gusty through the remainder of the overnight hours. Winds decrease through the day Monday, losing their gusts and backing to the south to southwest by late tomorrow afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MOZ007- 008-017. KS...None.