textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and Thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- A conditional marginal severe weather threat exists for Wednesday evening into Wednesday night with damaging winds and large hail the main threats.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue Thursday and Friday...severe weather not anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Benign weather with warming conditions will continue this afternoon through tomorrow. This afternoon a surface ridge that was parked over the local area the past 24 hours is sliding east of the CWA and modest WAA has developed in its wake. This will allow highs to top out in the mid to upper 80s today. Tonight a upper level trough will dig through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest forcing an attendant surface front toward the CWA which will be located along a line from central Iowa to southeast Missouri to central Kansas by tomorrow morning. This front will very slowly progress south and east tomorrow the area during the day tomorrow. Continued modest WAA out ahead of the front will continue the warming trend for tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. A reinforcing upper level shortwave rounding the base of the trough over the northern Plains will force the cold front into the northern CWA Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance of thunderstorms to northern Missouri on Tuesday night for areas north of the Missouri River (15%-30% from the Missouri River to Highway 36 to 30-50% for areas from Highway 36 to the MO/IA border). Shower and storms and residual cloud cover may linger through the morning on Wednesday however, current thinking is conditions will clear out for the late morning and afternoon particularly along and south of the front. This will create a wide temperature spread across the area on Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s across northern Missouri behind the front but will rise into the mid 80s to lower 90s south of the front. This will create a conditional marginal severe threat Wednesday evening into Wednesday night south of the front where MUCAPE values are expected to reach 1500-2500J/Kg with effective shear of 45-55kts, damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. Storms are expected to continue through the overnight before the front exits the area Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday the upper level flow will feature weak upper level troughing across the Great Lakes with amplified upper level ridging over much of the western CONUS. This will leave the local area on the lee side of the ridge. Weak shortwave round the ridge Thursday and Friday will continue storms chances each day (20-40%) with greater chance across the southern CWA. Saturday the upper level ridge over the western CONUS begins to build eastward with the local area coming under its periphery will will allow for drier and warmer conditions for the weekend. Highs Thursday and Friday will be in he 80s but will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday and into the low to mid 90s by Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with few cu around 5kft expected thru 00Z-01Z aft which clr skies will prevail. Sct-bkn high clouds will mov back into the TAF site aft 13Z-15Z. Winds will be out of SE/SSE btn 5-10kts before veering to the south btn 5-10kts aft 13Z-15Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.