textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Cooler and drier conditions Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures in the 60s.

* Rainfall chances return Thursday, with the greatest chances (70- 80%) overnight Thursday into Friday. Strong and severe storms are not currently expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A cold front which helped usher in a line of severe thunderstorms late Monday will continue to work its way through the region this morning. Stratiform precipitation has continued ahead of the cold front with the occasional lightning strike and rumble of thunder, though this should all come to an end later this morning with the front exiting our southern and eastern peripheries no later than 15Z. Temperatures will indeed be cooler behind the front, with today's high temperatures expected to only reach the mid 60s. Surface high pressure building off to our west will aid in keeping conditions on the calm end of the spectrum for the next 48 or so hours. The next "weather-maker", a positively-tilted upper-level trough, currently sits west of the Rockies.

Low-level moisture will keep overcast conditions around during the daylight hours today with some gradual clearing beginning across northwest Missouri late this afternoon. The clearing trend is expected to continue into the overnight hours, resulting in scattered mid/high clouds for most on Wednesday. This period of lessened cloud cover will be shortlived, however, as clouds build back in later Wednesday evening during a period of increased low- level theta-e advection. The aforementioned upper-level trough will eject a subtle shortwave through the Central Plains, increasing vorticity overhead and producing lift. This shortwave will provide the forecast's first opportunity for rainfall beginning early Thursday morning. A second shortwave will traverse the region early Friday with a slightly stronger vort max, continuing rain chances generally through late morning and early afternoon in the western and eastern portions of the CWA, respectively. PoPs are currently greatest (70-80%) overnight Thursday into Friday when lift seems to be greatest, but PoPs >50% are persistent and widespread from 12Z Thursday through 12Z Friday. Low-level inversions and shallow lapse rates will help prevent convection, but some very weak elevated instability could permit some rumbles of thunder amidst otherwise stratiform rain. Median rainfall accumulations from this event currently range 0.75" to 1" in our western counties, with accumulations closer to 0.5" further east.

A surface low will attempt to move towards the southern MO/KS border early this weekend. However, confidence in the impact of this system remains limited due to a lack of upper-level support, so weekend precipitation chances remain low (<20%) and largely confined to our southern border of counties. Otherwise, expect warmer temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift east and away from the TAF sites through the night. Stratiform rain along with isolated thunderstorm activity will continue overnight behind this line of severe thunderstorms before coming to an end. CIGS are expected to lower to IFR and MVFR overnight as rain tapers off, and then gradually rise through the morning and afternoon on Tuesday, becoming VFR in the afternoon. Winds will be shifting tonight to west and northwest, then out of the north during the day on Tuesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ020>022- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>007-011>016- 023-024. KS...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.