textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler today with temperatures closer to, or just below normal for this time of year.

- A few sprinkles or even light rain showers possible this evening and overnight.

- Additional showers and few storms return Thursday evening - Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A much cooler air mass will settle through the middle of the country today with high temperatures 30-40 degrees cooler than on Sunday. That actually gets the us close to, or just below normal, with highs in the middle 50s expected across the area. This evening and into the overnight hours, a weak shortwave trough will track across the region. The lowest 7,000 to 10,000 of the atmosphere remain very dry, even with models producing some QPF. But there is enough lift above this, notable from 300K to 310K, that some sprinkles, or even a light rain shower is possible this evening into the overnight hours. The best chance for any precipitation with this activity is mainly across north central/northeastern MO and into central MO. The emphasis here is that most folks won't see anything and even folks that do, may only see a few drops with a trace precipitation amounts possible.

As the cooler high pressure center moves east into the Eastern Great Lakes region, low-level flow will increase from the south, commencing a warming trend for the region. Highs Tuesday look to be 10-15 degrees warmer than Monday, with unseasonably hot conditions building back into the area Wednesday and Thursday. By Thursday, we could be 30+ degrees above normal again. The record high for Wednesday, March 25th, is 90, set in 1907. For Thursday, March 26th, the record is 85, set in 1991. Wednesday's high is forecast to be 83, so breaking that record is unlikely, with a 12% chance of a high of 90 or more. The record for March 26th is very likely to be broken, with the current forecast showing a high of 89. Though this will depend on the timing of a cold front moving into the area.

The next chance for any meaningful precipitation comes late Thursday through Friday as a cold front pushes through the area. Models show some weak to modest instability in our southern zones Thursday afternoon/evening. But there is also a fairly strong cap in place, which may be too much for the available forcing to overcome. And when forecast soundings do show the cap weakening, instability is significantly weaker and very elevated, with any precipitation being post-frontal. Temperatures cool down substantially for the weekend with highs in the 50s for Friday, near 60s for Saturday, and the 60s to near 70 for Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR conds are fcst thru the pd with increasing high clouds expected thru 18Z-20Z when bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds are expected to mov into the TAF sites. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the north btn 7-12kts however, by 13Z-15Z winds will veer to the NE around 10kts. Aft 18Z-20Z winds will become easterly around 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.