textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Overnight and Sunday morning fog again expected - Mainly central/southern Missouri and eastern/southeast Kansas

* Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue into early evening before subsiding - Mainly near and south of a line from Butler, MO to Kirksville, MO

* Dry and warmer Sunday and Memorial day before more unsettled conditions return Tuesday and on through the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

After morning fog burned off, conditions were largely quiet through the morning hours as a weak cool front meandered through central and northern Missouri. Regardless of which side of the weak front one resided, temperatures rose into the 70s through the morning and early afternoon. Said front was able to drift a bit more southward than much of the early morning and morning hi-res guidance, pushing right along the CWA border and just into the SGF CWA. Given the angling of the front, this placed it roughly near a line from Kirksville to Moberly to Sedalia and on back to the SW. Storms too were able to blossom along the front just a bit sooner than morning HRRR runs, but generally much ado about nothing given the larger environment... While MLCAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg, little opportunity for stronger storms with middling lapse rates through the profile and <20 kts deep shear to work with. If anything, some localized water issues may be in play with very slow storm motions and training along the weak front/boundary. Main risk for anyone outdoors will be lightning. This activity will subside with the loss of peak heating and as the accompanying mid-level wave slides eastward.

Into Sunday and Memorial day, surface high remains expected to largely drive sensible weather. Initially, additional fog development likely tonight into Sunday morning with ideal surface ridge positioning and clearing skies. Most likely areas to be largely S and E of the KC Metro proper, including much of central to southern Missouri and eastern to southeast Kansas. Clear skies and light winds highlight the remainder of Sunday, including the gradual return of southerly winds. Expect highs Sunday a few/handful of degrees warmer than today, into the lower 80s. Monday/Memorial day will see quiet overall conditions continue, but with gradually weakening surface high influence as it gets ushered E/NE. Warming trend continues with highs a couple/few degrees warmer than Sunday, into the mid 80s for most.

Tuesday onward remains on the unsettled side among the various synoptic scale guidance with numerous, if not prolonged, chances for showers and storms. General large scale pattern progression suggests an Omega Block structure with a messy high over low (Rex like) sub- setup over central CONUS. This tends to setup a stagnant pattern by Tuesday and on through the rest of the work week. A weak mid-upper level low will lift out of Texas/Southern Plains and into the Mid- Mississippi Valley, which will present the first opportunity at showers/storms. Environment appears not unlike today with middling lapse rates and unsupportive shear yielding slow moving scattered showers and non-severe thunder. This tends to continue off/on through much of the rest of the work week, though confidence gradually wanes as you move through the rest of the week given varied deterministic depictions of the evolution and strength of the mid-upper level low/trough.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Cloud cover dissipates through the evening as SHRA continues to move eastward across central MO. Winds become light and variable through the overnight before turning southerly tomorrow morning. CAMs do hint at some patchy fog development around sunrise; however, fog is more likely across central MO (KVER, KDMO, KMBY, etc.) tomorrow morning in the wake of recent rainfall.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.