textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower activity comes to an end across the area by this evening.

- An initial cold front moves through the area this afternoon, followed by a more significant push of cold air later tonight, quickly dropping temperatures below seasonal norms.

- Near to below freezing temperatures possible over northern areas late Friday night into Saturday morning.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of NE Kansas, NW and N Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Pattern evolution will be the name of the game today and to end the work-week, which in turn will result in a significant cool down.

The mid-upper level large scale pattern across CONUS is generally ridge-trough-ridge, including a pair of troughs moving across portions of the central CONUS. The southern stream trough continues to come off the Colorado Front Range and has more recently become an open wave. This has pushed a surface low over the CWA early this afternoon, too aiding in pushing majority of shower activity out of the CWA. Its associated cold front has begun to move into NW Missouri and NE Kansas, and will begin to cool down the area. Unfortunately though, a good amount of low-level moisture remains behind the front, and will allow dreary and overcast conditions to continue through much or all of the remaining day-time period. Scattered showers to isolated general thunder will remain possible near and ahead of this frontal passage as well.

More significant changes come to the area as the northern stream mid- level trough digs out of the Canadian Plains and into the Northern Plains. Along with its associated surface low, a secondary cold front will drop through the area this evening and overnight. It will include a strong push of drier air and CAA, rapidly plunging the area back below seasonal norms for mid-October. Hi-res guidance, such as HRRR/RAP, have noted a period of enhanced wind gusts with this push (strong subsidence), including run-to-run depictions of gusts into the low-40s mph between 01z-06z this evening. NBM did come in notably lighter during this window, have blended in HRRR/RAP solutions to signal the increasingly likely period of enhanced wind gusts. By Friday morning, the much cooler conditions will have settled across the area with expected lows in the lower 40s for most. Skies may initially be on the clear side, but an area of stratus may drop through as the core of the northern stream mid- level trough passes through the region. Breezy conditions will continue through the day Friday as well with NW to N winds around 20 mph and gusts 25 to 35 mph. Ongoing CAA will also limit warming through the day, with most forecast in the low 50s. Of note, did drop Friday highs a couple degrees below initial NBM, in conjunction with neighbors, to blend in ongoing colder hi-res guidance. Cloud cover extent and duration will ultimately be the determinant there. Friday night into Saturday morning, potential for the first freeze for NW/N portions of the CWA as skies clear and winds go light to calm across the area. Given the cooler trend in guidance, have coordinated a Freeze Watch for portions of the area with western and northern neighbors.

Through the weekend, eastward departure of the mid-level trough will allow height rises and ridging to begin to spread across the central CONUS. This keeps the sensible weather abundantly quiet and on the seasonably cool to seasonable, but warming side. Expect temperatures to rise each day, yielding mid-upper 50s Saturday and mid-upper 60s Sunday.

The start of the work week will see the weekend warming trend persist with continued southerly surface flow and gradually warming 850mb temps. While mid-level flow will be more southwesterly in nature and a Baja California mid-level cutoff low gets absorbed into the flow, precipitation chances remain minimal through at least mid- week among the majority of members within ensemble guidance. Prevailing consensus remains for temperatures to rise back toward the mid to upper 70s through mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Showers are clearing out ahead of a cold front that will push through the forecast area this afternoon, with CIGS lifting to MVFR and eventually VFR after sunset as dry air rushes into western MO. Winds will rapidly shift to northwesterly at 12 to 18 kts, gusting to 25 to 30+ kts, this afternoon through the overnight hours as the front passes. Could see some borderline MVFR tomorrow after 15Z as clouds wrap back around into central Missouri.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for MOZ001>007-011>016-020. KS...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ025-102.