textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A substantial trough is moving through the region keeping scattered showers through the night. The most substantial convection is expected across eastern MO. Widespread ascent combined with a saturated environment and persistent moisture transport leading to widespread showers some including heavy rainfall. This has kept chances for flooding around, especially near creeks and streams across central MO.

This first wave continues to push off to the northeast dragging the showers with it. However, another lee trough is developing across eastern CO. As this trough deepens it focuses the nocturnal LLJ across OK dumping into SW MO. This reinvigorates showers and thunderstorms across the I-44 corridor potentially extending northward into Linn (KS) and Bates counties. During the daytime hours a combination of upper level shortwave ridging and surface divergence due to the interactions of Sunday night's trough to the east and the shortwave ridge result in the daytime hours being mostly dry with shower activity being rather limited. The advection of warm air and moisture continues into the region keeping warm and generally uncomfortable conditions around. Heat indicies south of the MO River reach the mid to upper 90s with 100F heat indices possible near the HWY 18 corridor. Meanwhile NW flow aloft keeps heat indices a little cooler across the NE portions of the area. That said, dew points in the 70s will make the air feel quite thick and unpleasant.

Cyclogenesis continues across southern KS. The warm air and moisture advection mentioned previously feeds unstable air across the region. Multiple shortwave aloft are expected to break the cap initiating convection later this evening across central KS. Surface divergence thanks to the interactions of a trough to the east and the low to the west keeps activity in our area fairly benign with only isolated to scattered showers and storms through the day. The eastern trough and complimentary ridge are expected to slide eastward towards sunset. This facilitates fairly rapid warm frontogenesis across the area during the evening. This will try to act as a focus for convective development; however, CAM guidance does show some residual capping present that will resist the development of showers and storms. Upper level high pressure building up from the south also acts as a limiter for convection as it looks to divert passing upper level shortwave CVA to the north and east. There is some notable uncertainty as most model guidance does try to produce an MCS which is expected to move along the I-80 corridor overnight Monday into Tuesday. CAMs favor this MCS staying north of our CWA; however, legacy deterministic models pose the potential for the storm complex to extend into northern MO bringing even more rainfall to the region. The main causes being the location of the exit region of the expected nocturnal LLJ as well as the northward push of the upper level ridge. If either of these underperform expectations, it opens up the door for more potentially heavy rainfall.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The cut off low will be pulling away to the northeast toward the Great Lakes Tuesday and high pressure will be re-established across the region. The riding aloft will slowly slide east as a trough descends into the Northern Plains then swings northeast back through the Great Lakes. What this means for KS and MO is that, we will be trapped between the ridge in the east and a trough to the northwest. Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move through the flow, which could bring some PVA aloft. Wednesday evening into Thursday looks to be best potential chance for rain (60-70% at it peak Wednesday evening). With some PVA aloft (shortwave) and a mid level low develop to the west of the Rockies, there is still some uncertainty in timing. This is especially true when you look at the sfc cold front timing. Given the high temperatures, dewpoints and ongoing WAA there will be a potential for some strong to severe storms.

As the cold front moves through, the strong WAA should win out stall the frontal boundary and move it back northward as a warm front which could bring additional rain/storm chances through Friday into Saturday. This timing with the sfc frontal boundaries does line up with another shortwave aloft. There is still a lot of variability in the strength of the shortwave and timing of the sfc features so will have to keep an eye on this moving forward.

Otherwise the main message becomes the hot and humid conditions expected from roughly Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Now if the cold front passes late Wednesday, then temperatures and dewpoints will be cooler Thursday. For Tuesday specifically, heat indicies are expected to climb to around 105 degrees for the Metro and counties south of the Missouri River. With high confidence in hitting those heat indicies a heat advisory has been issued for those areas Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A few showers remain around the terminals for the first couple hours of the TAF period. Showers will push off to the east through the early morning, however, MVFR CIGs are expected through the morning. Intermittent IFR CIGs are possible. Low- level clouds should scatter out through the late morning resulting in VFR conditions through the afternoon. There is a chance for storms through the evening, however, uncertainty remains in timing in and location, so have opted for a PROB30.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ006>008- 015>017-023>025-030>033-038>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ057-060- 103>105. Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ060.