textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperature trend slightly above normal Monday, then well above normal through the weekend.

- Dry conditions expected through the week with low probabilities returning for the weekend for far NW Missouri.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Broad upper-level ridging, with a surface high to our east, will allow for temperatures to climb to slightly above normal values Monday. Upper-level ridging becomes more amplified by the middle of the week with increasing southerly flow helping temperatures warm back to well above normal levels for this time of year. For reference, normal highs are generally in the middle 60s to start the week, and fall into the lower to middle 60s by the weekend. With highs expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s Monday, we'll be a few degrees above normal. But as the upper ridging amplifies mid-late week, we'll see highs climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. So we should easily be 10-15 degrees above normal and approaching 20 degrees above normal by late this week and into the weekend.

With the upper-level ridging prevailing through the middle of the country, the forecast remains dry through the week. It's not until the weekend, when the ridge axis may shift sufficiently far enough east that some precipitation chances start to encroach on the area. Models show a front pushing into northwestern MO and northeastern KS late Saturday into Sunday. That front will provide a forcing mechanism for showers before washing out and lifting northward again. There is some uncertainty in this though. About 45% of 500mb clusters show the ridge axis roughly splitting Missouri. The remaining clusters are either further east or weaker overall with the ridging by late in the week to the weekend. Stronger ridging that is further west would inhibit precipitation chances. Weaker ridging or further east ridging would allow precipitation chances to shift further east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions expected for the duration of the forecast period. Winds remain generally southerly becoming light through the tail end of the overnight. Winds pick up again after sunrise to late morning Monday. Sky coverage fills in during the afternoon, but CIGs remain VFR.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.