textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures through Thursday, culminating in likely record highs for the day.

- Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Thursday evening as a strong cold front moves through the area.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday and Friday, especially for areas west of I-35.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Broad and expansive upper ridging will build back over the western CONUS and spill into the middle of the country as well. At the surface, high pressure over the East Coast and weak lee troughing in the High Plains, will lead to persistent southerly flow, especially by Wednesday into Thursday. This will help temperatures warm back above normal through Thursday. For today, highs should be able to climb into the middle to upper 60s, about 10 degrees above normal. As southerly to southwesterly low-level becomes better established Wednesday and Thursday, leading to strong warm advection, highs will surge into the middle to upper 80s for Wednesday and upper 80s to lower 90s for Thursday. The record high daily max temperature of 90, set in 1907, is in play for Wednesday. Though it's unlikely, with just a 10% of seeing highs 90 or higher. For Thursday, when the daily max record is 85, set in 1991, breaking it is very likely with a 90% chance of seeing at least 85. Our current forecast for MCI on Thursday is 88, so confidence is high this record will be broken.

While it will be hot on Thursday, a strong cold front will be moving southward through the area during the late afternoon and evening hours. The persistent southerly/southwesterly low-level flow will also help advect moisture into the area. Though it still looks somewhat limited, we should be able to see dewpoints climb into the lower 60s ahead of the front. This should help build modest instability of 1000 to perhaps as much as 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE along and ahead of the front. Strong upper-level flow will lead to deep- layer shear of 40-50 kts. These parameters seem at least somewhat favorable for strong to severe storms. However, there will be considerable convective inhibition to overcome due to a very strong cap from a strong EML. By the time this erodes, the surface front has pushed through and instability becomes elevated. If this plays out, storms could still be strong to severe, most likely for areas south of I-70 and after 03Z Friday, before the entire system pushes south of the forecast area by 06Z.

In addition to the strong/severe storm potential Thursday, elevated fire weather conditions look possible for areas west of I-35 during the afternoon. With the best moisture advection occurring east of I- 35, humidity values may fall into the 20-30 percent range during the afternoon. Additionally, with the cold front moving through our northwestern zones during the afternoon hours, drier air will be moving into that area with increasing northerly winds. For Friday, while temperatures will be much cooler, very dry air will be moving into the area with dewpoints falling into the low to mid teens. This will lead to humidity values possibly as low as 15% for parts of northwest MO and northeast KS. Couple that with modest wind gusts of 20-25 mph, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will exist for that portion of the forecast area.

Much cooler air settles into the region Friday and Saturday, with temperatures trending to more seasonal levels. Low-level flow becomes southerly again by Sunday and the next warming trend commences as a result. Highs Sunday look to be in the low 70s with low 80s likely early next work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with sct mid-lvl to start the TAF pd before bkn-ovc clouds mov into the TAF site btn 10Z-14Z. Bkn-ovc mid-lvl clouds around 10kft are fcst aft 19Z-23Z. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the ESE/SE btn 5-10kts thru 14Z when they will shift to the SSE/SE btn 7-12kts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 25: KSTJ: 83/1991

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.