textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, humid conditions to persist through the weekend into early next week, with heat indices in the 90s across much of the area.

- Line of showers/storms overnight, then another chance for showers/storms tomorrow afternoon. - Primary hazards include heavy rainfall, with a limited potential for severe hazards including damaging wind and hail.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Earlier showers and storms have moved off further to the east, with greater convective activity developing further south/southwest of our area as the afternoon progresses. An earlier complex of thunderstorms that developed over eastern KS has downtrended significantly as its moved into an area of more unfavorable shear for organized updrafts. However, with ample instability available, could still see some stronger pulses of showers/storms with primary hazards being heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. Our primary concern for widespread convection will be later tonight, when a complex of thunderstorms set to develop over central KS will develop along a dryline and progress eastward. CAMs have had a poor grasp of overall convective mode and extent for our area tonight, and subsequent forecasts have continued to vary. However, they have been relatively consistent temporally, and thus confidence is greater in their impacting the forecast area during the late evening/overnight period. Additionally, the overall environment that will prime these storms has remained relatively consistent through subsequent forecast cycles, with adequate instability present amidst weaker effective shear creating a marginal setup for strong/severe storms overnight. PWAT values have remained consistently high with this system, with current PWAT values on the MCI ACARS showing 1.6 inches and a forecast range up to 1.8 inches through the overnight. As such, the primary hazard with these showers/storms would be locally heavy rainfall, with additional concerns for strong wind/marginally severe hail with any particularly robust storms. Storms appear to be progressive enough to limit concerns for widespread flash flooding, but localized heavy rainfall will lead to flashier conditions, especially for areas that saw rainfall earlier today and urban areas.

Tomorrow, conditions similar to today will be present once again, as the upper trough will eject another shortwave across our area and reintroduce the opportunity for strong/severe storms. Conditions will remain hot and humid with persistent southerly/southwesterly flow, generating ample instability amidst improved effective shear. The primary limiter tomorrow will be the presence of a capping inversion and no strong, appreciable synoptic forcing to initiate storms, aside from outflow boundaries from earlier convection further northwest. If storms are able to develop and tap into the environment, primary hazards would be damaging winds/severe hail. Another risk going into tomorrow and Monday will be heat, as higher temperatures and increased humidity will lead to heat indices soaring into the 90s for much of the forecast area. So, there are multiple hazards to be aware of as we progress further into the weekend and begin looking ahead to next week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

By Monday, as the previous day's activity exits, amplified ridging will clear things out, keeping the forecast relatively dry through much of the extended. With high pressure and the advection of drier air from the east, will see decreased concerns related to heat as temperatures remain in the 80s through the forecast period. As the ridge de-amplifies and high pressure retreats southeast, could see some chances (30-50%) for precipitation return by the end of the forecast period with disturbances embedded in the upper-level flow.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold in place at all four terminals over the next several hours. Between 06Z and 09Z, a band of storms moving ENE out of central Kansas is expected to move through the corridor of terminals. Guidance has fluctuated in terms of both storm coverage and timing, but the highest probability window continues to exist within the 06-09Z timeframe. Behind showers/storms, CIGs are expected to fall to MVFR for much of the morning with VFR CIGs returning early Sunday afternoon. Winds are to remain east/southeasterly at ~10 kts through the end of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.