textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern across the region through the weekend and into early next week

* Severe storm threat through the weekend continues to appear low

* Better chances for strong to severe storms may be seen early into middle of next week, but uncertainty remains on the higher end

* With numerous chances for rain into/through early-middle of next week, river and areal flooding may be realized across portions of the area. - Highly dependent on where areas of heavier rainfall occur/overlap over the coming days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A few storms Thursday evening/night were able to tap into a semi- favorable wind environment and yielded a handful of measured wind gusts in the upper 50s to mid 60s mph. These were mainly seen across the N/NW metro and areas to the W/NW from there before weakening as they continued into/across the KC Metro area. Remainder of the overnight and through current saw more generic thunder and showers track across the area in conjunction with the sagging low level boundaries and angling LLJ.

The overall pattern across the Central CONUS tends to continue to be more zonal in nature, with a low amplitude shortwave trough working into the Great Lakes Region (seen nicely on WV imagery among other products). Associated building high pressure on its heels pushed the surface and low level boundaries responsible for yesterday evening/overnight storm and shower activity. For today, lingering weak convection/showers push south toward southern Missouri, but may continue in far southern portions of the CWA. Expect showers and non- severe thunder today for southern areas that do see this activity. Temperatures notably cooler as well with highs largely in the upper 50s to 60s. As the surface/low-level highs depart eastward, resurgence in WAA/isentropic lift will overspread additional shower/storm activity, primarily in the overnight hours tonight into Saturday morning. With little support for organized storms and the broad/slab lift, general thunderstorms are the expectation here. A stronger gust of wind on occasion may be possible with strongest of storms/cores. This activity exits northward through the morning Saturday, but skies tend to remain overcast. Highs do rebound though with southerly winds, back into the 70s. While a couple/few rounds of showers/storms by this point, overall flood risk remains low with the expected progressive nature of the showers/storms.

By Sunday the mid-upper level pattern sees more noticeable shift, becoming southwesterly across the central CONUS as a leading shortwave trough exits the western CONUS and a secondary cutoff low digs toward and onto the mid-California coast. Plume of strong moisture advection and broad isentropic lift will allow another round of showers/general thunder Sunday morning and into the afternoon before departing eastward. Similar to previous rounds at this point, severe threat quite low given depicted profiles and general setup. Flooding threat likely remains limited/localized with general progressive nature. Highs remain predominantly in the 70s.

As we work into the new work week, aside from the additional chances for rain, there too appears to be better chances for some stronger to severe storms. This is largely attributed to better mid-upper level support (temp and wind profiles) and opportunities for storm organization. Opportunities here continue to be signaled within guidance in the Monday night/overnight time frame and again Tuesday evening. Frequent readers unlikely to be surprised by the following... that details are difficult to be confident in at this time frame and given the preceding days/rounds of showers of storms. But, to dangle a carrot so to speak, deterministic soundings certainly suggest the potential for strong/severe storms with looping low level hodographs and supportive mid level lapse rates for at least moderate CAPE. But again, much to transpire ahead of this. Touching again on the flooding threat, even with round 3 or 4+ by this point, the overall threat appears to yet remain on the lower end with predominantly progressive depictions or waves of activity without a boundary to anchor on. This low threat tendency appears bolstered by NBM 24hr 2"+ QPF probabilities tending to be <20% for any time frame between now and middle of next week. Rises in rivers and priming of soils will certainly be in place though, should an opportunity for heavier rain or training storms emerge.

Lastly, temperatures within this southerly flow/WAA regime remain on the warm side of normal in the in the 70s to mid 80s, but tempered by the periods of cloud cover and rounds of rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A messy TAF period is expected across the sites. Majority of SHRA/TSRA activity has wound down, with some lingering -RA in/around KMKC/KIXD primarily. Said activity may linger around those sites for a couple hours before activity pushes further south for much of the remainder of the period. Otherwise, surface front and IFR ceilings already through all but KIXD, and should do so near or shortly after 12z/start of this period. Some uncertainty in how expansive and persistent the IFR to low MVFR deck will be, so have edge a little more optimistic in most cases. Even more uncertainty in evolution of BR/FG visibility restrictions, so too have opted a bit more optimistic in that regard for the time being. Late in the period SHRA/TSRA activity lifts back northward and will affect all sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.