textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures possible this afternoon for areas south of the currently stalled out cold front across northern Missouri.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight, with damaging wind gusts and large hail being the primary hazards.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible this evening into Wednesday morning. A Flood Watch has been issued for areas south and southeast of the KC metro, which may be expanded northward depending on trends in guidance today.

- Widespread showers/storms is expected again late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a deep mid/upper level low centered over Nevada with attendant troughing into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front has mostly stalled across northern Missouri into NE Kansas. South of the front, temperatures this early morning range in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is 20 to 25 degrees above normal for October 13th. The aforementioned mid/upper low will move slowly east southeast across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the day today, with a lee surface cyclone moving into the south central High Plains this afternoon and evening downstream of the upper trough. Meanwhile, the pseudo stationary cold front should remain in place across northern MO into eastern Kansas. A southwesterly oriented belt of 35 to 55 knot H5 winds is progged to overspread the CWA by this afternoon and evening, and with afternoon temperatures soaring into the upper 80s to lower 90s for locations south of the cold front (decent chance of breaking the record high in Kansas City today) and rich low level moisture, moderate instability should be in place to the tune of 1500 to 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE. Initially discrete convection is projected to develop by mid to late afternoon across east- central Kansas, likely growing upscale into clusters as storms move eastward toward our CWA by early evening. Given the pairing of sufficient deep layer shear and moderate buoyancy, updrafts should be relatively well organized as they moving into our CWA this evening, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards. However, there will likely be a modest uptick in low level shear/SRH by this evening near the surface front, which has prompted SPC to upgrade portions of our CWA to a 2% tornado risk. Another round of convection is likely to develop across south central KS by this evening behind the first round, with this likely growing upscale into an MCS as it moves into southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. With PWATs on the order of 1.8" to 2" this evening and increasing further to 2" to 2.2" (per the SPC HREF) across southern portions of the CWA late tonight into early Wednesday, locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible, with HREF probability matched means on the order of 2" to 3" across portions of the region, especially for areas south of the KC metro, with locally higher amounts certainly possible. Thus, in collaboration with neighboring offices, have went ahead and hoisted a flood watch from 7 pm this evening through 10 AM Wednesday for areas south and southeast of the KC metro. Depending on how guidance trends this morning and afternoon, it is possible that the watch could be expanded northward (including for the KC metro).

The cold front should finally push south through most (if not all) of the CWA by Wednesday afternoon. While the forecast still shows chance PoPs (around 50 percent or so) throughout the daytime hours of Wednesday, quite a bit of high res guidance suggests we may be by and large dry other than some drizzle or light stratiform rain, with the best chances for any appreciable rainfall (0.25" or more) across our far southern areas closer to the surface cold front. By Wednesday night into early Thursday morning, the western trough is projected to eject across the south central Plains, which should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late Wednesday night into Thursday morning (PoPs are 90 to 100% across much of the CWA from 1 AM to 1 PM Thursday). This should bring another inch or so of rainfall across much of the region. Rain should exit from west to east by Thursday evening as the mid/upper trough scoots off into the Great Lakes region and the cold front races well to the east southeast, with skies mostly clearing from west to east by Friday morning. Colder and much drier air will infiltrate the CWA on Friday, with highs only in the upper 50s to lower 60s and dew points in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Meanwhile, a 1040 mb high centered over the central High Plains and a 1004 mb low centered over the eastern Great Lakes will yield a strong pressure gradient across the area, with northerly winds on the order of 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday morning into early Friday afternoon. The pressure gradient should begin to subside by later Friday afternoon as the surface high slides eastward closer to our CWA. By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island). This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest.

Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday, with deep layer southwesterly flow moving in by late Sunday into Monday downstream of a trough over Baja California. This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with light northerly winds at STJ and light southerly winds at the KC metro terminals. These conditions should generally continue through most of the daytime hours today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to overspread the terminals from the west around 00z this evening and continue through around 8z Wednesday morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall significantly reducing VIS will be possible. Strong storms capable of producing brief wind gusts near 60 mph may be possible, as well. MVFR CIGs should develop by later tonight, with IFR CIGs possible by the end of the TAF period. Patchy drizzle or light rain may linger through the remainder of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for MOZ043>045-053-054. KS...Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday morning for KSZ057-060.