textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers continue on and off throughout the day Saturday, increasing in coverage by tonight into early Sunday morning. - 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across the area but they should be non-severe.

- Dry out briefly Monday with slightly warmer temperatures before rain chances return for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

At 500mb, broad ridging across the central CONUS remains in place with the Nor'easter off of the east coast and another trough over the Pacific NW. Shortwaves off of the PNW trough however have helped to disturb the ridge over the Midwest, providing lift for the showers we have seen. Near the surface, continuing moist, WAA advection from the south from the surface low over central KS interacts with the shortwaves aloft, supporting rain showers. Showers will be on and off throughout the day Saturday but will increase in coverage by Saturday night into Sunday morning as southerly flow increases along with another upper-level shortwave moving through the region. Instability also increases throughout the day Saturday supporting a 20-30% chance for thunderstorms across the area. However CAPE values remain low (300-600 J/kg) and shear is limited (20-25kts) so severe potential remains low.

Models have been consistent run-to-run with the ridge moving back into MO Sunday afternoon and the 25th-75th ensemble spread for 500mb heights is minimal so there is increasing confidence rain will start to move out Sunday afternoon and we should have a dry start to the work week. With the ridge moving back in Monday high temperatures will be back in the mid to upper 70s.

Rain chances return for the middle of next week. Another mid-level trough moves in from the Pacific NW towards the SW CONUS where it may combine with the tropical system as it moves into the SW CONUS. This system would bring a large influx of moisture to the area, resulting in anomalously high PWAT values for this time of year. With such high PWAT values we will need to monitor the potential for flooding next week. However, there is still uncertainty whether the tropical system will cross the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, which would result in a slightly drier setup for next week so we will continue to watch how this system progresses.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A pretty messy TAF period with regards to precipitation. Generally speaking, chances linger through a majority of the current TAF period, but will be far from persistent. As such, have attempted to target select windows within the period. The best chances for any thunder may be this afternoon and again overnight as the LLJ increases. Winds may be briefly gusty at times, especially in/around any showers. Ceilings should remain VFR throughout, with best chance for any MVFR ceilings in/around KSTJ and especially northward. Will monitor trends and make adjustments as necessary.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.