textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures expected through the next 7 days.

- Predominantly dry conditions expected for most locations. Only small precipitation chances for extreme NW MO this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The prevailing pattern over the middle of the country for the next week will be characterized by varying magnitudes/placement of upper-level ridging. Initially, that ridging is somewhat suppressed with the ridge axis shifted east of the area. This is allowing a weak upper- level shortwave to spread cloud cover over the area as that wave tracks to the east through the region. There have been some returns show up on regional composite reflectivity but with a deep layer of dry air through at least the lowest 12000 ft of the atmosphere, there is only a small chance for anything hitting the ground. A similar scenario will play out tomorrow with the ridge suppressed to the southeast of the area. A weak upper-level shortwave trough will move across the Central Plains, leading to mainly just increasing cloud cover. With a slightly better moisture profile though, can't rule out a brief shower or sprinkle, mainly over eastern KS and adjacent areas of Missouri. Still, PoPs are 10-15% or less through the area.

By the middle of the week, upper-level ridging strengthens through the Plains states, leading to well above normal temperatures across the area and suppressing any chance for precipitation. That persists through the end of the week before the ridge axis again shifts to the east and then flattens out by early next week. As this occurs, it will allow for low chances for precipitation to return to the area. But even this looks confined to far northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas. The rest of the area is still very likely (>90%) to stay dry through the entire forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. BKN CIGs with some virga continue until sunset. Sky coverage is expected to open up a bit through the overnight before refilling after sunrise tomorrow. Intermittent virga is expected through the day tomorrow with limited chances of that precipitation reaching the surface. Winds remain southeasterly through the night becoming southwesterly tomorrow afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.