textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Wind Chill values in the upper teens and 20s this morning.

* Above normal temps expected this afternoon through the rest of the week. - Tue-Thur - Highs in the mid 50s to 60s - Fri/Sat - Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s

* Next chance for precipitation late Sunday into Monday... hazardous weather not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Early this morning temperatures are already on the rise as a broken to overcast high cirrus deck has moved into the area and increased WAA has gotten underway. However, although temperatures are already warming, as people head out the door this morning they will be greeted with temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s and that coupled with southerly winds gusting to 20-30 mph that will yield wind chills in the upper teens and 20s. WAA continuing through most of the day will yield highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The WAA in the form of southwesterly winds between 20-25mph will also lead to slightly elevated fire weather concerns today as relative humidity values drop into the mid 30s this afternoon. Late this afternoon into this evening, a weak cold front will move through the area however, a lack of cold air behind the front will keep lows seasonable tonight in the mid to upper 30s. Surface high pressure will build into the area on Wednesday however, despite weak mixing, copious sunshine and height rises will aid in highs rising into the upper 50s (northeast) to upper 60s (southwest). Continued height rise are expected Thursday as upper level ridging builds over the western High Plains in response to a upper level trough approaching the California coast. This will help drive highs into the 60s to near 70 on Thursday. Friday, the upper level ridge axis moves directly over the area driving highs into the low to mid 70s...which is nearly 20 degrees above normal for mid November.

There have been some changes in the model runs over the past 24 hours regarding precipitation chances this weekend. Models had been bringing the aforementioned upper level trough moving into the California coast into the southern Plains, in the form of a closed low, by Saturday allowing precipitation to overspread the area Saturday night. However, recent runs of the GFS and EC have been consistently slowing the progression of this system which is typical of closed upper low systems. Consequently, recent runs of the GFS and EC now keep the closed low system from moving into the central/southern Plains until Sunday night keeping conditions dry for most of the weekend and holding precipitation off until Sunday night/Monday. The NBM is still holding onto previous solutions and has POPs overspreading the area Saturday night into Sunday which now looks to be dry. Saturday is again expected to be well above normal as upper level ridging remains in control with strong WAA...highs are expected to reach the 70s area-wide. Saturday night a upper level shortwave will move through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will flatten the upper level ridge over the region and send a weak cold front through the area Saturday night into Sunday. Consequently, highs on Sunday will not be as warm but still above normal in the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 433 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conds will prevail this TAF cycle with diminishing high clouds expected thru the pd. Winds to begin this TAF pd will be out of the SSW around 15kts with gusts to 20-25kts by 17Z-19Z winds will veer to the WSW and diminish to around 10kts. Aft 23Z-00Z winds will becmg lgt out of the west around 5kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.