textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries to light snow possible across far northern MO today. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Trending warmer this week, with highs pushing into the 50s Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Low-level water vapor imagery (7.34um / channel 10) shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving into eastern NE and KS as of 08Z Sunday. Ascent ahead of this shortwave, which shows up well from 280K to 290K, is leading to some weak radar returns on the 0.5 regional radar plot. However, local EAX 88D imagery, and area observations show that a deep layer of dry air is inhibiting this activity from reaching the surface. There is more showery looking returns showing up in northeastern KS and far northwestern MO, still within the area of ascent noted earlier. It's possible that some of this activity reaches the surface in the pre-dawn hours. That said, the mid-level shortwave quickly tracks east, with subsidence and drier air behind it, which will quickly erode chances from west to east through the day. Another, stronger shortwave is noted on water vapor imagery moving into eastern ND/SD and western MN early this morning. Ascent ahead of this wave may lead to a few flurries or light snow in northeastern MO this afternoon. Overall, have added some low PoPs across northern MO to account for both features and get some flurry to light snow mention in the forecast. The lack of moisture and short residence time of the ascent, leads to little or no accumulation. Westerly winds behind these waves will help the area warm up into the mid to upper 30s and we may be see near-normal highs today.

For the remainder of the forecast, that trend for warmer temperatures will continue. For Monday, highs may climb into the mid 40s over eastern KS and western MO, with middle 30s in our northeastern zones. This may be end up being a few degrees too warm given there is still several inches of snow to melt. Temperatures cool off slightly for the middle of the week with a storm system that tracks to the south and east of the forecast area. But for the later half of the week, Thursday - Friday, highs should climb into the 50s for eastern KS and western MO as upper-level ridging spreads eastward over the Rockies or even into the Plains. Uncertainty increases heading into the weekend. Ensemble clusters show a tight packing of 500mb heights over the eastern half of North America. This is a result of a deep low over the Hudson Bay and the ridging over the western US. For highs on Saturday, there is 10+ degree difference between the 25th and 75th percentiles and a 20+ degree difference between the 10th and 90th percentiles. If the ridge is stronger and/or further east, we'll be on the warmer side of the model range. A stronger Hudson Bay low, and colder air spills back into the region. Right now, the forecast is close to the mean and in the low to mid 40s for highs.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with ovc mid-lvl clouds btn 6-10kft fcst thru 14Z-15Z. Aft 14Z-15Z sct-bkn high clouds are expected for the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds will be out of the south at 5-10kts to begin the TAF pd but will incr to 10-15kts around 14Z-15Z. Aft 21Z-22Z winds will become W/WNW btn 5-10kts. There is a slight chc for flurries or a brf lgt snow btn 10Z-13Z however, chances are too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.