textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain Friday Morning

- Conditional Severe Storm Threat Friday Afternoon

- Hot and Dry Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Tonight Through Friday Night:

The H5 short-wave that brought isolated thunderstorms to areas southeast of Kansas City on Thursday evening has pushed into the Ozarks, with subtle H5 height rises occurring behind it that have managed to clear skies in some parts of the area and suppress any new storm development. With the cloud cover that developed Thursday afternoon and multiple attempts at convection initiation, differential heating reinforced a boundary that is roughly situated as of 04z from Ottawa Kansas to Sedalia MO. This will be a feature of interest heading into the overnight hours, as well as Friday afternoon with respect to the convective complex moving eastward across Kansas, and redevelopment potential from western to central Missouri in the afternoon on Friday.

A surface low has been present over the Front Range and High Plains the last few days, and Thursday evening kicked off convection in western Kansas. That is steadily moving eastward and will do so through the overnight hours, tied to a more notable H5 short-wave and vorticity maxima. Stronger dCVA will spread across central and eastern Kansas, and surface pressure falls should extend into the eastern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. How this impacts the thermal boundaries that are currently in play south of the KC metro remains in question. Current CAM guidance appears to want to keep this boundary where it is currently at, forcing a surface trough axis south of Interstate 70. While deep layer shear is stronger, between 30-40 kts associated with the approaching mid-level short- wave, most CAM guidance indicates the convection complex will become outflow dominant as it moves eastward out of the Kansas Flint Hills. Will need to watch cold pool characteristics closely to assess the longevity. Broadscale lift though will continue to the early morning hours of Friday, and will still bring the potential for heavier rainfall to the western portions of the forecast area, including the KC metro during the morning rush hour. PWAT values are still nearing 2.0 inches across the region. 00z HREF PMMs are hinting at the potential for near 2" of precipitation in parts of eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Current Flash Flood Guidance suggests most of this area can handle 2.0 to 2.5 inches over a 3 hour period, however do have some concerns for the KC metro especially after Thursday morning's heavy rainfall. But with the current CAMs trend of weakening convection, have held off from issuing a flood watch at this time for our western zones. As for severe potential with this complex, if it does not decay as quickly as CAMs currently suggest, main threat will be 60 MPH wind gusts, and perhaps not all too different from what occurred on Thursday morning.

As this complex decays through the morning, attention turns to redevelopment potential Friday afternoon from western Missouri to central Missouri. The positioning of the current thermal boundary and how it responds to the overnight convective complex will play large role in potential surface convergence, as well as heating and boundary layer mixing for what CAPE looks like across the area. We may still have enhanced mid-level vorticity present, which could provide additional lift along with a surface trough and increasing surface pressure falls through the afternoon. If there is any clearing and rapid destabilization, strong storms may be able to develop with peak heating Friday afternoon. The 00z HRRR developed a very robust storm just north of the Kansas City Metro and moved this eastward along the surface trough axis and thermal boundary. The background shear environment as indicated by HRRR soundings could be supportive a supercell mode. The low-level hodograph shape remains uncertain though, as vorticity may be more crosswise. Therefore, it is difficult to talk about any kind of tornado threat. However if surface winds back along an area of surface pressure falls and close to a boundary, this could end up presenting all potential hazards including large hail and damaging winds. The RRFS on the other hand is slower with destabilization as it holds onto cloud cover longer, and does not attempt DCI until it gets around Hwy. 63 and then moves eastward. In addition to severe storm potential, a very moist environment with deep warm cloud processes will once again present the opportunity for efficient rainfall production. However, we are still seeing inconsistency with where the heavier QPF axis could setup amongst the HREF members. Areas north of the Kansas City Metro may be able to handle heavier rainfall, but if afternoon redevelopment is further south, flooding may once again become a concern. The short-wave that could provide a trigger for initiation Friday afternoon then moves eastward, and should push any activity out of the forecast area between 03z-06z Friday Night into Saturday morning. Lingering activity may be possible though, as another H5 short-wave may move from the Central Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley.

Saturday and Beyond:

Shower activity remains possible Saturday morning and afternoon particularly for our southeastern zones with another mid-level vort max providing lift across the area. The stronger instability and shear though is currently progged along the Interstate 44 corridor and into the Ozarks Region, which limits severe potential with anything that may develop. This should push southeastward by late Saturday evening.

Sunday and the remainder of the forecast period will feature a prominent mid-level ridge across much of the CONUS. Strong WAA will send temperatures back into the 90s by the the middle of week. As of right now, dewpoints are progged to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which would help keep heat index values notably lower, just a few degrees above the air temperatures. Without any notable forcing or lift, most of the extended forecast is dry across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For the 06z TAF package, uncertainty remains regarding potential periods of shower and convective activity. A decaying MCS across central KS, will move into the region between roughly 09-14z this morning. Given the uncertainty with precipitation coverage, have maintained VCSH or PROB30 groups for light rain. Additional thunderstorm activity looks to develop near or just east of the I-35 corridor in the 18-21z period, but confidence of exact placement of this activity remains low.

Have maintained PROB30 TSRA groups for the 18-24z period for now. Cloud bases should remain VFR, around 8-12kft. Winds will be variable at times, but will gradually shift from E-ESE to NE this evening around 4-6 kts. Some MVFR is possible at STJ around daybreak as well, but increasing cloud cover should limit the fog intensity.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.