textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty southwest winds up to around 40mph will occur at times Thursday afternoon.

- Red Flag Warning in effect from noon to 9PM Thursday for portions of far northeast Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

- Shower and thunderstorms chances return on Sunday, with light snow possible Sunday evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The rain has moved out of the area this afternoon, but cloudy skies remain in place across much of the area. The clouds will clear from the northwest to the southeast across the area this afternoon with clear skies this evening and tonight. Surface high pressure is moving south across the Plains this afternoon. The pressure gradient remains tight across the area this afternoon east of the high, resulting in breezy conditions as wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will continue to occur the rest of this afternoon. As the surface high continue to move southeast over the region winds will become light this evening into tonight. A cooler air mass will also move into the area tonight as lows cool into the middle 20s to near 30 tonight into Thursday morning.

The area of surface high pressure will move off to the southeast on Thursday as surface low pressure moves across the northern Plains. Southwesterly winds will return across the area on Thursday and will be windy as gusts of 35 to 45 mph occur at times with the strongest winds occurring across the northwestern portions of the area. Temperatures will range from the lower to middle 60s across the western portions of the area to the middle 50s across central and north central Missouri. A drier air mass will also be over the area especially northwestern Missouri which saw the least amount of rain with the system yesterday into this morning. Have issued a Red Flag Warning for portions of far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri from noon to 9PM Thursday where RH values will be around 25% and winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 45 mph occur at times. These dry conditions and gusty winds will lead to rapid fire spread on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front will move southeast through the area on Friday. A dry air mass will be in place and moisture return will be limited so the front will pass through the area dry. Southerly winds will shift to the north behind the front. Highs will range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s from north of south across the area on Friday.

Southerly winds will return on Saturday ahead of an upper level trough the will move east into the Plains. Highs will range from the middle 50s across north central Missouri to the lower 70s across extreme east central Kansas and west central Missouri Saturday afternoon.

A cold front will move east through the area on Sunday as the trough moves to the east across the region. Showers will develop along and behind the front, there may be just enough instability for a few embedded non severe storms on Sunday. A colder air mass will advect into the area behind this air mass. Highs will warm into the 50s on Sunday ahead of the front. Some of the ensemble model members show light precipitation lingering into the evening hours, ending from west to east on Sunday. As the colder temperatures move in some light snow will be possible. Not expecting much impact with the warm temperatures in place but could see a light dusting of snow mainly on elevated surfaces if/where any precipitation can linger into the evening hours. Lows will drop into the teens to the 20s both Sunday and Monday nights.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

MVFR ceilings around 1500 to 2000ft will continue across the area early this afternoon and will clear from northwest to southeast late this afternoon. Gusty northwesterly wind will continue into early this evening with gusts of 25 to 30kt at times. Winds will become light this evening then become southwesterly and gusty again late Thursday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ001>004- 011>013-020. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ025-102.