textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and again on Friday. The severe risk is low today, however a few stronger storms could produce gusty winds, small hail, and pockets of heavy rain. Stronger storms are posisble on Friday.

- Dry with a warming trend Sunday into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Morning storms have pushed east into central and eastern Missouri with clearing skies. Gravity waves in the wake of the storms can be picked out in GOES satellite imagery across the area. Farther west satellite imagery shows daytime cumulus blossoming around outflow boundaries left behind by morning convection and in the vicinity of a diffuse surface low across Kansas. This area has our attention for potential convective initiation later this afternoon and evening. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s already this afternoon with a pool of 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE just south of the I-70 corridor. As the low slides east and encounters better instability storms are expected to develop. With modest forcing widespread activity is not anticipated though isolated storms are expected. These storms would be capable of gusty wind and small hail, with weaker shear limiting more robust development. Pockets of heavy rain are also possible with PWATs near 2" and deep warm cloud layers of 3500+ m. Storms motions are fairly slow at around 15 kts and could further support flood concerns, especially in urban areas.

An embedded shortwave will move across Kansas overnight with convection fueled by the low level jet. That convection is expected to reach western Missouri around sunrise Friday, diminishing as the MCS moves east across the area through the morning. As the associated surface low moves across the area from midday into the evening, restrengthening of storms is anticipated. The degree of strengthening will depend on how much destabilization can occur into the afternoon, though synoptic support should help. Soundings indicate around 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40+ kts of shear to organize storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts are possible along and south of the I-70 corridor. Pockets of heavy rain are once again possible with PWATs exceeding 2" in some places and deep warm cloud layers allowing for efficient rain production.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Ridging builds as the shortwave lifts east. There is uncertainty in how quickly that shortwave may lift east and any lingering boundaries across the area that may allow for isolated convection on Saturday. Placement will depend heavily on evolution Friday, which depends on evolution today, leading to high uncertainty. There is very little available shear for storm organization, so any storms that are able to develop on Saturday may be pulsey with low severe potential.

The ridge continues to build Sunday into next week, keeping the area dry and kicking off a warming trend. Temperatures warm back into the low 90s next week, though dewpoints remain lower in the upper 60s. This will help to keep heat indicies more in check than last week, though area along an south of the I-70 corridor may still approach 100 by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon, though there is uncertainty in where exactly these develop. Given the uncertainty in the placement of storms, have kept as prob30 across all sites. Storms end after 00z with winds becoming light and variable in direction. Additional showers are expected on Friday morning across all sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.