textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Another frost/freeze likely for northern Missouri tonight into Tuesday morning

* Chances (>70%-90%) for rain turning to snow Monday night into early Tuesday morning over northern Missouri and into Iowa. - A narrow band of heavier accumulating snow possible

* Active pattern with warmer temperatures and multiple opportunities for precipitation...Wednesday night through the weekend. The severe threat is low but flooding may be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Early this morning, a backdoor cold front has just begun sinking into the forecast area. This front will slowly sink south through the forecast area this morning stalling near the southern CWA. This will create a large temperature spread across the area today with highs in the mid 50s across the northern CWA to the mid to upper 60s across the southern CWA. A tricky forecast awaits for tonight as a narrow but strong frontogenetically forced band of showers will enter the northern CWA. Showers will originally begin as rain however, wetbulbing is expected to occur allowing rain to transition to snow. The main questions are: how much are warm surface temperatures and air temperatures going to limit accumulations? And, will snow rates be strong enough to overcome warm surface temperatures? The best chance to see 1 to 2" of snow will be along and north of a line from Grant City to Kirksville with a sharp delineation of lesser amounts just south of that line. Lows tonight will range is the 30s with freeze conditions possible north of Highway 36. This band of precipitation will weaken by tomorrow afternoon. A warm front will begin to lift north across the area Tuesday providing another day of a large temperatures spread across the area. Temperatures north of the warm front across northern Missouri, where clouds and perhaps snow cover will hold highs in the mid to upper 40s. However, highs across the southwestern CWA, where WAA will be occurring, will rise into the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 336 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Tuesday night into Wednesday, quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop with strong WAA allowing highs to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s on Wednesday. Wednesday into Wednesday night a closed upper level trough will dig from the southern Canadian Plains into the northern Plains. This will force an attendant cold front into the area Wednesday night. This will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop across the forecast area. Thursday the upper level trough will shift northeast into southeastern Canadian. This will leave the surface front stalled across the area. Several weak upper level shortwaves on quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue thunderstorm chances in the area Thursday into Friday with the surface boundary as the focus. Friday night into Saturday a upper level trough will move into the California coast and dig into the southwestern CONUS. In response, southwesterly flow aloft will build over the region. Several lead shortwave ejecting out ahead of the main trough over the southwesterly CONUS will keep the pattern active next weekend with the potential for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While the severe potential for severe weather during this timeframe appears low at this time, total rainfall amounts of 2 to locally 4 inches of precipitation may cause minor areal and river flooding. Highs Wednesday through Friday will generally be in the mid 60s to mid 70s range with highs rising into the 70s next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 654 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the pd with clr skies fcst thru 22Z-00Z when ovc clouds btn 5-8kft with impact the TAF site. Winds to begin the pd will be out of the NE btn 5-10kts and incr to 10-15kts aft 22Z-00Z. Aft 04Z...winds will become NE/ENE and incr to around 15kts with gusts to 25kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.