textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog slowly dissipate through the morning hours.

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected starting late Thursday night through Friday night.

- Strong to isolated severe storms are possible Thursday night mainly across far NW MO.

- Higher chances for strong to severe storms is expected starting Friday late afternoon and evening into the overnight. All severe hazards are possible including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the mid/upper trough axis oriented north to south across far eastern Kansas as of midnight, with a 50+ knot H5 jet streak extending from central OK into eastern Missouri. At the surface, the stationary boundary stretches from SE Missouri to the southwest into far NW Arkansas and into SE Oklahoma. Showers and thunderstorms - a few that got a little feisty east of Interstate 49 and south of Interstate 70 - have cleared the CWA to the east, with a few showers near the H5 low across far NW Missouri. With light winds and a saturated boundary layer, dense fog has developed across much of the region, and as such a dense fog advisory has been issued through 7 AM Thursday for areas where visibility is by and large quarter mile or less. Fog should mix out by mid to late morning, with low clouds finally thinning by afternoon (although quite a bit of cloud cover will likely remain). Temperatures should rebound into the mid 60s this afternoon with light and variable winds continuing.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the region once again by late Thursday night into Friday morning out ahead of an approaching longwave trough across the Four Corners region as guidance suggests a 45+ knot south southwesterly oriented low level jet developing over the region and a warm front lifting northward through the CWA. This will also usher in increased moisture, with dew points rising from the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday afternoon to the mid to upper 50s by Friday morning. 06z suite of CAMs suggest convection initiation INVOF Salina and Cottonwood Falls by around 9 pm Thursday, with storms growing upscale into an MCS and entering into far NW MO and northern MO by late Thursday night. A few of these storms could be strong with gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. CAMs also suggest a second area of storms traversing along the I-35 corridor weakening as they approach. This could bring additional showers and thunderstorms into the region after sunrise Friday.

Moving into the afternoon, the aforementioned broad mid/upper trough previously over the Four Corners is progged to split into two distinct impulses, with the leading shortwave trough ejecting into the Central Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, with an accompanying surface low sliding across eastern Nebraska into NW Iowa by Friday afternoon, placing our CWA within the open warm sector (high temps in the 70s with SSW winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30+ mph Friday afternoon). Quite a bit of cloud cover is likely to hang around into Friday afternoon from the morning convective activity which could greatly affect the outlook for storms later in the day. With this convective inhibition present, we may not get enough daytime heating to produce the destabilization needed to initiate storms. However, warm air and moisture advection across the warm sector is likely going to be able to approach if not overtake the convective inhibition.

The broad warm sector ahead of the cold front adds considerable potency and uncertainty to the forecast. Instability ranges from 1000-2000 J/kg depending on model choice which by itself is adequate, but doesn't raise too many flags. However, lapse rates in excess of 7-8 C/km and helicity values of 300-500 m2/s2 do suggest an environment with the potential for supercells containing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. CAMs do suggest the potential for a period of discrete storm development ahead of the larger cold front expected later in the evening on Friday. This setup has higher probabilities for discrete supercells from around 4-9 PM Friday. However, there is one very large and important caveat that was articulated earlier. Warm sector development is highly dependent on cloud debris from the morning convection. If cloud debris inhibits daytime heating, overall chances for discrete storms lowers. That said, any discrete form that does form can present all severe hazards. The variance in models presents a potentially boom or bust scenario.

Confidence is higher in strong convection with the cold front that is expected to move through the region As the trough and surface low progress east northeastward, the accompanying cold front should move through the region from northwest to southeast Friday evening. Strong forcing provided by the front will likely encourage convection to grow upscale resulting in a line of thunderstorms along/slightly out ahead of the front. This will likely develop QLCS characteristics with damaging wind gusts and embedded mesovortices possible given an environment of ~1000 J/kg of ML CAPE, 40-50 knots of deep layer shear, and 35 knots of 0-3 km shear. Again, the question will be what kind of environment precedes this line. Fortunately the comparison is between a worked over environment by discrete supercells or a mildly capped environment from morning cloud debris. Both environment pose interesting scenarios with likely the capped environment being slightly more favorable for a stronger QLCS as it would be able to retain some of the daytime heating and not be worked over by evening convection. The forcing of the front will likely defeat any cap in place ahead of it. The post discrete supercell environment also poses an interesting scenario as while the convective variable would theoretically be weaker (i.e. a weaker line), residual outflow boundaries from discrete convection will likely cause segments of the QLCS to behave erratically. Of course, there is also the third scenario where it busts completely, but confidence is low in that solution. Some form of convection at least isolated strong to severe is likely at some point Friday.

Temps will be cooler behind the front on Saturday, but temperatures are projected to rebound quickly, with highs in the upper 60s on Sunday and into the upper 70s on Monday. Dry conditions are likely Saturday into Monday, as well. The next notable chance for precipitation comes Tuesday as an expansive cutoff low looks to traverse the southern CONUS creating another strong conveyor of warm air and moisture into the region SPC has placed areas in the eastern quadrants of this low into a fairly rare Day 6-7 15% severe weather risk which indicates heightened attention to forecast developments as early next week approaches.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 602 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

VIS impacts are expected to slowly improve over the next few hours eventually getting back to P6 late morning. CIGs remain lowered through the morning and while some models show some optimism during the afternoon, many maintain a 1000-2000ft cloud deck through the period. Lowered CIGS and VIS return after sunset with passing RA & TSRA expected around 06Z (STJ & MCI) and 10-12Z (MCI and south). Winds accelerate becoming southeasterly through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for MOZ002>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CST this morning for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105.