textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat will continue Tuesday for most locations, and potentially into Wednesday for areas south of the Missouri River.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. And again on Wednesday afternoon.

- Cooler/ more seasonal temperatures move into the area for the later half of the week and through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Dangerous heat continues to afflict the area as upper-level ridging remains across the middle of the country. That ridging spreads eastward Tuesday with 594dam 500mb heights centered over Missouri and southwest into Oklahoma. This will lead to dangerous heat spreading back east to encompass most of the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. While the entire forecast area will see highs in the mid to upper 90s Tuesday, our northeastern zones may lag on moisture and thus heat index values don't look as high as areas further to the south and west. With that in mind, have issued a heat advisory to the east of the ongoing heat warning. There is potential that a portion of these headlines will need to be extended into Wednesday afternoon. However that will be heavily dependent on how convection from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning evolves and if any new convection develops Wednesday afternoon. Right now, the most likely area that may need to be extend would be along and south of the Missouri River. After collaborating with our neighbors, decided to hold off given the uncertainty with the convection and potential effects on temperatures. If I had to put a probability to whether the areas I mentioned are extended, I'd put it around 50-60%. So there is a fair amount of uncertainty as a result of the front and potential for new convection along it.

Speaking of fronts, a fairly robust front will be moving into the region late Tuesday afternoon and evening and slowly move south through the overnight hours. Robust CAPE will build through the day ahead of the front across northern MO/ northeastern KS. Shear will be limited and decrease with southward extent as stronger flow aloft remains well north of the area. But the front will provide a focus for convective development, most likely in the 00Z to 03Z time frame in our far northern/ northwestern zones. Initial development will pose a risk for downburst winds and large hail. But this should trend to mainly a wind hazard with time as front slides southward through the overnight hours. Then for Wednesday afternoon, the forecast is dependent on where that front or any outflow boundaries reside. With the latest suite of guidance, the most probable area for renewed convection looks to be in our southern zones. CAPE may potentially be robust with ensemble mean SBCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. But this could be as high 2500 J/kg based on the 90th percentile of ensemble guidance. Shear may also be stronger than Tuesday as the mid/upper level jet has shifted southward.

That cold front will finally bring an end to the extreme heat that has plagued the area for nearly two weeks. High temperatures by Thursday should be closer to seasonal normals, which now are in the lower 80s to near 80 by the end of the week. Dewpoints are also expected to fall into the middle 60s for most Thursday afternoon. Temperatures rebound some for the weekend but we should still see highs in the middle 80s through the end of the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Southeasterly winds around 10kts will persist through the afternoon and into tomorrow morning. Winds will shift to the south or even south- southwest tomorrow morning and remain 10-12 kts with occasional higher gusts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ028-029-037- 043-053. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>005- 011>015-020>023-030>032-038>040-044>046-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ102.