textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain to end through the evening tonight, potential for patchy fog tomorrow morning

- Temperatures warm tomorrow, continue to warm through the first half of next week

- Next chance for precipitation late next week (10-20%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Current radar shows precipitation beginning to move off towards the east, with residual showers on the back end of the system over the KS/MO stateline in Kansas City. As we go into the evening, our chances for additional precipitation will go down from the northwest to the southeast with the intrusion of drier air from the north as the shortwave trough continues to propagate towards the east. As the shortwave exits, low level ridging will begin to build in behind it. There is the potential for some patchy fog overnight into tomorrow morning with residual moisture from the rainfall today, clearing skies, and calming winds fostering a favorable environment. However, with the intrusion of drier and colder air from the north, the potential for denser, more widespread fog is limited.

Tomorrow will begin an overall warming trend that will persist through midweek next week. The exact magnitude of temperature increase tomorrow remains slightly uncertain, as there is some spread in potential solutions for overall temperature. Referencing the HREF, the spread of 75th-25th percentile 2m temperatures tomorrow is ~4-6 degF, with some blends of guidance either running warmer or colder than a single deterministic value by a few degrees. This could be in part due to differences of forecasted sky cover providing more/less insolation, or the strength of incoming cold air advection aloft paired with mixing during the day bringing temperatures down a bit. With this in mind, have split the difference with forecasted temperatures for tomorrow to rise into the low to mid 60s for much of the area. Upper level ridging will continue to build in through the period, enhancing the transport of warm air into the region which will assist in increasing temperatures to well above normal starting Monday. An upper level trough lifting off the Rockies into the Dakotas will serve to enhance southwesterly flow by Tuesday, bringing temperatures up to the low to mid 70s for much of the region. Wednesday will remain warm, with continued west/southwesterly flow as the upper level trough progs into the western Great Lakes region.

The precipitation chances beginning late next week Thursday have decreased through subsequent forecasts, with any appreciable forcing from synoptic scale lifting remaining north of our area with the surface low pressure and upper level trough. As the forecast continues to evolve, specific details regarding the precipitation placement with this system will become more evident, so the shift of probabilities through the forecast time period will probably continue to happen. Otherwise, still anticipating a drop in temperatures closer to seasonally normal with the gradual introduction of a cold front during the day on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Ceilings have risen over the past few hours allowing all TAF sites to reach MVFR conditions. Sky coverage will begin to scatter out over the next couple of hours which may allow a period of VFR conditions to be observed early this morning. However, fog is expected to develop across northwestern MO and northeastern KS early this morning, which will reduce visibility at KSTJ likely resulting in VLIFR conditions. However, the southward extent of the fog is still uncertain, so confidence is not high enough to include FG at KMCI and KMKC at this point. KIXD should not see any fog impacts. Once the fog concerns dissipate, VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period with light winds shifting from northerly to southwesterly.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.