textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Quiet weather with mild temperatures through Monday.

* Chances for thunderstorms return midweek. There is a level 3 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Strong non- thunderstorm winds are also likely Wednesday with gusts possibly exceeding 45 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have exited well to the southeast early this morning. A few light showers and sprinkles have redeveloped across northwest MO but are of little consequence. Drier air will work southeast during the next few hours and clouds will clear. The rest of the day will feature ample sunshine as high pressure builds in and much cooler temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

High pressure will settle overhead tonight, then shift to the southeast Monday and Monday night. Clear skies, dry air, and light or calm winds will bring lows into the low to mid 50s tonight. Temperatures begin to rebound Monday as return flow begins. Highs will climb close to 80. Moisture increases Monday night as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There may be a few showers that develop late, but meager instability will limit any thunder threat until Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The cold front from Monday night will stall Tuesday then wash out as a trough swings east into the Great Lakes. Scattered showers may build into a few thunderstorms during peak heating, but forecast soundings indicate capping lingering for much of the day and forcing along the front is lost as it washes out. Therefore, PoPs remain low and impacts should be minimal.

By Tuesday night, another trough will start digging into the northern Plains. Low pressure will develop over the Dakotas by early Wednesday morning, then track east to Iowa or southern Minnesota Wednesday evening, then lower Michigan early Thursday morning. Moisture advection will ramp up late Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Scattered showers and elevated thunderstorms should begin developing across Missouri Tuesday night on the nose of a 50 kt LLJ over KS. Strong capping will remain in place through most of Wednesday morning as an EML overspreads the area. This should keep coverage limited until late morning or afternoon. Strong low level mechanical mixing, an easing of the EML, and increasing surface moisture will help reduce capping through the day. CAPE will increase to greater than 3000 J/kg in the presence of 45+ kts of shear. The parameter space suggests supercells are possible initially with all severe weather threats possible. With time, storms may organize into a strong MCS capable of widespread wind damage given the strength of the 500 and 850 mb jet streaks, 80-90 kts and 40-50 kts, respectively, across northern MO. In addition, forecast soundings indicate 40-50 kt gradient winds within the mixed layer. Wind gusts may exceed 45 mph outside of any thunderstorms, so it wouldn't take much for storms to produce severe gusts given the background wind field.

The cold front will advance south behind the storms Wednesday, but will slow or stall across southern MO Wednesday night and Thursday. Storms may linger south of I-70 into Thursday before high pressure building in gives the front an extra boost to push it farther away. The rest of the week looks quiet again with near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Mid level clouds are clearing from northwest to southeast early this morning. FEW-SCT diurnal CU around 5kft will develop this afternoon. Northwest winds 10-15 kts will become light and variable this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.