textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic air arrives tonight with most locations seeing calendar day highs at midnight.

- Another slight shift northward in weekend system, but little overall change in snowfall amounts.

- Arctic air linger for the weekend before warming slightly into the new week, albeit still below normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 944 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Expansive high pressure stretched from the Northern Plains into the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon. Low pressure was located just south of James Bay with a cold front trailing into eastern Lake Superior, the UP of Michigan, northern Wisconsin, and southern Minnesota. A very cold Arctic air mass was located behind this front and will be arriving into the Lower Missouri Valley tonight. Before then, fair skies will prevail this afternoon with highs in the 30s and 40s along with southerly winds. Winds then veer northerly tonight in the wake of the front with much colder air pouring into the region. Temperatures at midnight will be in the 20s and 30s before falling through the early morning hours and through much of the day Friday with a few hours of temperatures warming slightly or holding steady before continuing to fall after sunset. This will result in calendar day high temperatures occurring shortly after midnight. Afternoon temperatures Friday will be in the teens and single digits above zero. Breezy northerly winds will bring wind chills in the teens and 20s below zero along and north of the Missouri River with single digits above and below zero to the south. Cold headlines are in effect for this and will persist through the weekend.

Attention then turns to the winter storm that will affect the Southern Plains into the Deep South to the Northeast this weekend. A deep trough will move into the Intermountain West Friday night and begin sending multiple lobes of vorticity into the Southern and Central Plains. This will lead to snow developing in those areas Friday afternoon and spreading into the Lower Missouri Valley Friday evening. Dry air from the high pressure to our north will likely delay the onset of snowfall across the region until later Friday night into early Saturday morning. Models have come into better agreement for at least the start of this event, but differences increase over the latter part. The NAM and GFS are advertising two distinct periods of snowfall while the ECMWF keeps snow ongoing through the event. If a break were to occur, it would likely be during the Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening timeframe. Snowfall then ends through the day Sunday as low pressure deepens across the Southeast and lifts to the northeast. However, the NAM is suggesting that the snowfall lingers across the area into Sunday night with a deformation band setting up. Snowfall amounts have increased from our previous package with 6-9" expected from the KC Metro area to St. Joseph eastward with isolated higher amounts to 7 to 10 inches in our far southern counties. Snowfall ratios will likely be above climatology with this system given the Arctic airmass in place resulting in values of 15:1 to 18:1. Snowfall probabilities have increased with the 12z NBM resulting in the probability of at least 6" at 70 to 80% for areas along the US36 corridor southward and then rapidly falling off to the north of US36. Given the increase in these probabilities and with the onset of snow about 36 hours out, will be upgrading our watch to a warning with this forecast package.

The Arctic air will remain in place for Saturday and Sunday and have lowered temperatures a bit given the snowpack that will be forming. Saturday will be the coldest with high temperatures in the single digits above zero before warming into the teens for Sunday. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s below zero during the overnights, so cold weather headlines may need to be expanded. A warming trend is then expected heading into the new week with highs Monday in the 20s and then 30s for Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail during this period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 944 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Breezy NE winds will continue overnight through Friday afternoon following the passage of an Arctic cold front, sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. After 00z Saturday, steady NE winds will persist, but the gusts will relax. Mid- and upper-level VFR cloud decks are forecast through the entire period. At this time, the newest model guidance indicates that any impactful snowfall with the incoming winter storm will not arrive at the terminals until after 06z Saturday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MOZ001- 011>014-020>025-031>033. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for MOZ028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Friday for MOZ002>008- 015>017. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday for MOZ002>008-015>017. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ004-011>017-024-025-033. KS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for KSZ025-102. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105.