textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend, and likely into early next week.

- Heat advisory in effect area wide through at least Saturday evening.

- Afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with max heat indices in the 100 to 107 degrees range today through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The main concern this forecast period continues to be the prolonged late season heat. This heat will continue come courtesy of an upper level ridge which has been dominating the local weather since this past weekend. This upper level ridge axis has slid east of the local area and is centered over the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys this morning. This will keep temperatures similar to yesterday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Moisture, however, will increase slightly today with dewpoints rising into the mid 60s to low 70s which will yield dewpoints in the 100-107 range. Tonight into tomorrow, the ridge will begin to retrograde back westward. This will provide subtle height rises which may allow temperatures to rise a degree or two with dewpoints remaining in the mid 60s to lower 70s which will again yield heat index values in the 100-107 range. Saturday, the ridge axis will build over the local area driving highs into the mid 90s to over 100. Slightly lower dewpoints will again keep heat indices in the 100-107.

Sunday, a couple stronger upper level shortwaves will round the ridge acting to temporarily flatten it and bring the chance (15-30%) for a few showers and thunderstorms to the northern CWA. This will allow temperatures to "cool" a few degrees across the northern CWA to the lower 90s while over the southern CWA temperatures will still achieve the upper 90s to near 100. Monday and Tuesday the upper level ridge reasserts itself over the area prolonging the heat with highs remaining in the mid to upper 90s. Model differences exist beyond Tuesday that lends uncertainty to the potential for precipitation in the Tuesday night through Wednesday timeframe. The GFS through this period keeps the upper level ridge entrenched over the area as a upper level trough moves through the Canadian Plains keeping precipitation north of the area. The EC is stronger and further south with the upper level trough across the northern tier states flattening the upper ridge over the area and bringing he chance for precipitation.

In regards to the heat advisory that is currently in effect through Saturday evening, it may need to be extended into early next week. And, due to the duration of the heat being greater than for days it may need to be converted into a extreme heat warning with future forecast updates.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Southwest winds are expected to become marginally gusty after 15Z Thursday, and a few cumulus around 4K feet agl may develop south of I-70 after 18Z Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds and fair weather cumulus are expected to subside near sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.