textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms (15-30%) are forecast this afternoon and early tonight. Another chance (20-40%) of storms is forecast Sunday afternoon for locations near and south of I-70.

- Elevated heat and humidity levels are forecast today through Monday. Peak heat index values of 95-105 are forecast today and Sunday, followed by 100-110 values on Monday.

- Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday night into Thursday morning (15-30% chance) and Thursday night into Friday morning (30-50% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Across the CONUS early this afternoon, expansive H5 ridging exists across the Intermountain West and Four Corners region, while troughing extends NW to SE across the northeast CONUS. The local area is between these two features in a weak baroclinic zone.

Isolated to widely scattered (15-30%) pulse convection will continue to bubble up and down this afternoon. As a cold front attempts to move into the area from the NE, slightly more organized, gusty storms could develop this evening around the Kirksville area, but shear values are very limited even here. Sunday will see more of the same as the frontal boundary sags further into NE MO, but convection will be greatest near and south of I-70. With PWAT values still around 1.9-2.1", locally heavy rain and flooding issues will be a concern.

Elevated temperature and humidity levels will continue through early next week. High temperatures today and Sunday will reach the lower 90s, but humidity levels will increase a bit on Sunday as moisture pools ahead of the frontal boundary. Peak heat index values will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s this afternoon, but more widespread lower 100 values are expected Sunday.

The worst of the heat will be Monday as the ridge to our west briefly builds east over the region. This will bring high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s and peak heat index values of 100-110 degrees are forecast. Will likely need a Heat Advisory for the western half of the forecast area on Monday, but will hold off for now due to uncertainty with the eastern extent of the heat. The ridge will begin to retreat west from the region on Tuesday. High temperatures will still range from the mid/upper 90s to upper 80s/lower 90s from SW to NE respectively. Dew point values will be drawing down on Tuesday, so the need for additional heat headlines remains uncertain.

The middle to latter half of next week look to be a bit more active as the region will still be under NW baroclinic flow. With increasing LLJ activity over the Central Plains, extended range model guidance is hinting at the potential for multiple MCS's to move through the area, first Wednesday PM/Thursday AM and then again Thursday PM/Friday AM. There is still time for a lot of adjustments to what is essentially a mesoscale event, so the best thing to do is stay tuned for updates to the forecasts in the coming days. Temperatures will be near typical late July values in the middle to upper 80s for highs and the middle 60s to lower 60s for lows.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 558 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 18Z/Sunday. Isolated showers across the region are expected to weaken and dissipate in the next hour or so. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected after 18Z Sunday. Included prob 30 storm mention late tomorrow for KC Metro sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.