textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler conditions expected today through this weekend. Hard freeze Saturday morning.

- Temperatures returning at or slightly above seasonal norms next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Surges of arctic air continue to plunge southward across the central US behind area of low pressure over eastern Ohio. The next push of arctic air is anticipated to arrive this morning, and 925 hpa temperatures are expected to fall to near 0 C. Despite unidirectional winds leading to mixing to near 850 hpa, the cooling temperatures aloft will only lead to a five to seven degree diurnal curve across northern Missouri, and closer to 10 degrees of warming across central Missouri today. Lingering moisture will lead to cumulostratus development east of highway 65 which is expected to rapidly dissipate with the loss of solar heating tonight.

The clearing skies tonight will lead to the coolest night of the season thus far across the region with lows in the upper 20s in most locations. A light north breeze through the night will push wind chill values into the lower 20s, perhaps the upper teens in isolated locations.

Canadian high pressure will continue to build into the region on Friday keeping temperatures below seasonal norms for this time of year. Clear skies and light winds Friday night into Saturday morning will once again lead to the coolest temperatures of the season, and a hard freeze region-wide (50-90% chance of temperatures less than 25 degrees F, greatest east of I-35).

Shortwave building east from the west coast will bring a chance of rain to the southern plains on Sunday, but dry airmass in place will likely keep the region dry through the weekend and keep any precipitation chances south.

Temperatures return closer to seasonal norms early next week with omega block developing across the central US keeping the region dry through the first half of the week. West coast trough eventually weakens and lifts northeast, potentially creating a chance of light rain late next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail; however, there may be an hour or two east of highway 65 where cumulostratus develops ~15-16Z that is on the higher end of MVFR. Marginally gusty north winds will prevail throughout the day today, decreasing rapidly near sunset. RAP model suggests the potential for MVFR stratus after 09Z Friday morning, but is not supported by other models, so for now, left mention at few or less.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.