textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures Closer To Normal, Climbing Above Normal Middle to End of the Week

- Light Snow Possible Early Tuesday Morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Modest ridge axis is passing through the region today gradually forcing the surface anticyclone into the western Ohio River Valley. This will keep conditions clear for the remainder of the evening.

There is a short-wave disturbance that is entering Central Nebraska late this afternoon and will continue to push southeastward. Stronger dCVA into the OK/TX panhandle region has been promoting surface cyclogenesis, and surface pressure falls are starting to extend eastward toward the Missouri River Valley. Cloud cover will increase overnight and into Tuesday morning. Weak lift will also occur especially as the mid-level vort maxima moves through, that could be enough to generate light snow activity. Accumulation of snow will be minimal, if anything more than flurries occur. RAP model soundings from runs early this morning were showing primarily light snow activity. A few RAP runs this afternoon have reduced ice introduction while leaving saturation in a zone for supercooled droplets, which could favor light freezing drizzle. However, lift through the supercooled layer though remains fairly weak, and the DGZ is not overly dry, indicating that ice introduction may still occur. For now, have refrained from putting freezing drizzle mentions early Tuesday morning in the official forecast for areas along and north of Interstate 70. We will continue to monitor trends heading into the evening, paying close attention to the moisture profile as this wave moves through Nebraska before arriving in our area. Once the primary forcing passes by, northerly flow and cloud cover will Tuesday high temperatures slightly cooler.

The remainder of the week will feature an amplified ridge over the western third of the CONUS that will provide a prominent dAVA region across the Central CONUS. This should send an 850mb thermal ridge axis eastward to help our temperatures through the middle of the this week reach above normal, potentially seeing highs in the lower to mid 50s, with upper 40s closer to the Iowa State Line. This pattern amplification will be battling a Hudson Bay low that could stall H5 height rises through much of the week, which if that does, may keep temperatures cooler. This feature may play more of a role in temperature uncertainty heading into next weekend, as some solution allow the main H5 ridge axis to slide eastward, while others deamplify the ridge and allow the Hudson Bay low to provide CVA which would keep conditions cooler. However even in the solutions depicting more influence from the closed-low system, signals for precipitation are rather week, with ensemble probabilities less than 10 percent for most of the area for measurable precipitation. Next weekend, amongst NBM members, inner- quartile spread is between the lower 40s and upper 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conds are expected to begin the TAF pd with ovc high clouds fcst thru 13Z-15Z. Aft 13Z-15Z...ovc cigs btn 3-5kft are then fcst for the remainder of the TAF pd. Some models produce the potential for MVFR cigs btn 14Z-18Z...conf is too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time but conds will be monitored for the 12Z TAF issuance. Winds will be out of the NNE/N btn 4-8kts thru the TAF pd.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.