textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening. Severe chances are low.

- Dry and less humid to start the week. Thunderstorms return to the forecast later Wednesday and Thursday along with warmer temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Early morning fog dissipated quickly within a few hours of sunrise. With the fog cleared, the rest of the morning and early afternoon have been mostly sunny with daytime cumulus developing across the area. Conditions have been more pleasant than the last week with highs in the mid 80s and lower humidity. Meanwhile a weak shortwave across Iowa this morning has rotated south into northern Missouri. An associated area of clouds is easy to identify on satellite and identify the location of the wave. There is very little shear in place today, but around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE available. As the weak wave continues to drop across the area it will provide just enough forcing for scattered thunderstorms to develop. These will move south across the area into the evening before dissipating after sunset. With a lack of shear and weak forcing the severe threat is quite low. Patchy fog is possible again overnight with light winds and plenty of low level moisture in place.

Ridging builds back into Missouri Monday and Tuesday, keeping the area dry and nudging temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints are 10+ degrees lower than they were last week, keeping the heat index more manageable in the low 90s to start the week. By Wednesday a developing trough across the western US will deepen and move into the midwest. This is currently set to push across Missouri late Wednesday and on Thursday, bringing the next opportunity for thunderstorms to the state. This will also pull a plume of moisture across the area. The precipitation may put a damper on temperatures, but convection holds off enough for daytime heating through the afternoon the apparent temperatures could again exceed 100 in a few locations. Of course this is still several days out and both temperatures and convection will be refined.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered daytime cumulus is developing across the area this afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon into the early evening, however these are expected to remain east of the TAF sites. Fog may develop again early Sunday, however confidence in occurrence is low at this time and have not included in TAFs.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.