textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog across the central MO is expected to be replaced by rain through the morning.

- Rain lingers through much of the day. Showers are expected to start relatively isolated steadily expanding through the morning. A few heavy downpours are possible.

- More fog is expected to develop behind the showers Monday night into Tuesday.

- The holiday week continues to look dry before another storm system looks to enter for the post Thanksgiving weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 418 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A pronounced cyclone is working its way off the eastern Rockies into western KS. Just ahead of it is a compressed ridge stabilizes much of the vertical column over eastern KS ans western MO. A jet streak to the southwest is shoveling low level moisture into the region. This saturated layer has been trapped under a warmer, drier upper atmosphere which has resulted in a compressed, thick cloud deck. For those east of the KC metro, this cloud deck is more or less on the ground resulting in dense fog across the region. Satellite imagery shows the train of moisture being advected into central MO; however, the relative stability of the present air mass has discouraged the development of showers keeping rain to the south across the Ozark Plateau at the moment.

This has been evolving through the night as the cyclone advances northeastward. Upper level air becomes more saturated increasing the depth of the moist layer. Cyclonic vorticity advection aloft as the low pressure center approached encouraging lift and developing showers. Originally starting to the south and west of the area, these showers are expected to move in closer to sunrise. The good news is that rainfall will displace the dense fog; so instead of driving into a thick wall of cloud, it will be a thick wall of rain.

Through the night, we have seen the more robust saturated air struggle against the antecedent dry air across MO. Showers have been progressing into the region only to be dissipated by the less favorable air mass. Over the course of the next few hours, showers are expected to slowly filter into the region. The lift from the CVA mentioned earlier eventually wins out with showers migrating into the region starting across the I-29/I-35, and I-49 corridors during the morning commute. Isolated pockets of heavy rainfall are possible as PWATs ascend to around 1 inch and more shortwave eject from the parent cyclone. That said, the showers have been somewhat under performing through the night, so it might take a bit for an organized shield of showers to form. Rain eventually makes its way across the area by midday. The general lack of instability keeps expectations tampered to gentle rain showers with embedded heavier downpours, but it would not be all the surprising to hear a couple rumbles of thunder. Chances for more robust precipitation come particularly along the US-65 corridor Monday evening as a elevated front sweeps through the region.

Behind this front, once again the column dries with the exception of the lowest layers. This presents another opportunity for fog development particularly if sky coverage is able to break up a bit. Another shortwave and accompanying boundary sweep through the area on Tuesday which could develop some sparse sprinkles and showers across central MO. Much cooler and drier air works into the area Wednesday. High temperatures subside just below seasonal normals settling in the low to mid 40s. These temperatures continue through the Thanksgiving holiday into the forthcoming weekend.

Speaking of the forthcoming weekend, we have been keeping an eye on a potential developing system which could slightly disrupt the post holiday travel period. It still remains fairly difficult to ascertain what might happen as the primary wave associated with this system is still over the western Aleutians, if it has even ejected from the polar flow. Deterministic guidance suggests a midlevel wave which could be informally described as an Alberta clipper tapping into an established warm air and moisture conveyor across the eastern Rockies. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the potential for precipitation next weekend keeping wintry precipitation chances mainly concentrated across far NE MO (around 30-40% chances). Many of the impacts from this system continue to remain north and east of the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rain has moved into north-central Missouri between 17-18z producing visibility around 2SM with lower ceilings. A few hours off from rain, some drizzle possible. Next push of rain comes in after 19z, and will bring IFR ceilings, and will also reduce visibility to between 2-4SM. This will last through much of the evening. Most of the activity exits to eastern Missouri during the overnight hours. IFR ceilings may continue into Tuesday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.