textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions Friday and Saturday. Perhaps some early morning storms Saturday.

- Summer starts with rains Saturday Night and Sunday as a strong storm system approaches from the northwest. Heavy rains and stronger wind gusts are the main threats with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Broad area of high pressure roughly centered over MO early this morning. Above the surface, a northwesterly flow pattern has developed, and this will be an issue for the second half of the weekend. Till then, expect quiet weather for today with highs in the mid 80s.

Tonight, moisture will start to increase across the region, especially just west over KS. This increase is in response to a deeper southerly flow developing ahead of a surface low forming just east of the Rockies. A precipitable water gradient forms from near the central NE/KS border southeast into SW MO. We could see some isolated showers/storms develop in eastern KS/western MO along this gradient Saturday afternoon. Chances for severe weather are pretty low with this first wave Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Saturday night that plume of moisture more fully works its way into our forecast area. In addition, we should see a shortwave trough travel within that northwest flow aloft to bring a complex of showers and storms through the area late Saturday night and into Sunday. Precipitable waters rise above 1.75", above the 90th percentile for this time of year. In addition, we could see some back building of storms along the southern edge of the complex, as a low-level jet of 30 knots maintains itself for much of the day Sunday. The combination of those two elements means a better chance for heavy rain rates and flood potential. The Extreme Forecast Index pegs a highly anomalous rain forecast along with a high shift of tails, indicative of higher end potential in the Euro ensembles (12Z). It's area of concern is east to west across northern MO, with a fairly tight gradient to the I-70 corridor. Thus we've coordinated a Flood Watch for roughly that corridor north for Saturday Night and Sunday.

Rain chances linger a little into Sunday night before high pressure builds in again from the north and allows us to dry out to start the next work week. Blended model solution holds off on additional rains until a similar looking system develops Thursday. Temps cool a little below normal behind the Sunday system and we edge closer to normal through the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Expect light and variable winds most of the day with high pressure right overhead. This afternoon we should see a general south to southeasterly wind at each site before winds become more variable again. Expecting VFR conditions...but early Saturday morning could have some showers and storms at the terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040. KS...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for KSZ025-102>105.