textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures are possible this afternoon with highs likely reaching the lower 70s across eastern Kansas and far western Missouri.

- A cold front moves through the region overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, reducing temperatures for tomorrow afternoon (although remaining above normal).

- Cooler, but still above normal temperatures likely for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Rain chances (20% to 50%) return Thursday into Friday.

- Rain chances increase further (50% to 60%) Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Broad mid/upper level ridging and above normal temperatures remains in place across the vast majority of the western half of the CONUS this morning, with our CWA situated along the eastern edge of this ridging beneath northwesterly flow aloft. By this afternoon, mid/upper ridging out ahead of a mostly stationary closed upper low centered near Baja California and a northern trough translating west to east across the Northern/Canadian Plains toward the Upper Midwest shifts further eastward, bringing the ridge axis over our CWA, yielding more zonal flow, higher mid level heights and warmer 850 mb temperatures. Meanwhile, a surface low is progged to deepen slightly over the SD/IA/NE tri state area, yielding increased south southwesterly surface winds and theta e advection in response. All of this will help yield very warm temperatures this afternoon, with highs forecast to reach the lower 70s across eastern Kansas and far western MO (mid to upper 60s further east). Model guidance has continued to trend slightly warmer with each successive run, and the NBM now gives roughly a 50% probability for MaxT at MCI to meet or exceed 72 degrees, which is the record high for Feb 9th (set in 1943). Despite the modest dewpoint increases this afternoon, relative humidity by early to mid afternoon will likely drop to around 30 percent across portions of eastern KS and western MO, and with the abnormally warm temperatures and breezy SSW winds, this could yield a brief window of elevated fire weather conditions.

By tonight, the aforementioned northern mid/upper trough is projected to deepen/become more amplified as it moves east southeastward into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region. This will help push a cold front through the region from northwest to southeast, with the latest HRRR bringing the front into far NW Missouri by around 2 AM Tuesday, through the KC metro by around 5 AM, and completely through the remainder of the CWA by 8 AM Tuesday. Cooler and drier air will come behind the front, although temperatures will still remain well above normal with highs in the mid 50s for most locations Tuesday afternoon. For Wednesday, WNW flow should be in place aloft over our CWA as we will be situated between troughing to the east and ridging to the west, with surface high pressure settling overhead. This should result in dry conditions with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 40s across far NE Missouri to the mid 50s toward KC and areas south.

Models diverge a bit as we head into late week and the weekend, with roughly 8 to 10 degree spreads between the NBM 25th and 75th percentile for Max T for Thursday through Saturday. Quite a bit of cloud cover may linger over the region through this time period, with slight chance to chance PoPs (20 to 50 percent) for Thursday and Friday. By Friday night into Saturday, both the GFS and the ECMWF depict a mid/upper trough traversing across the Desert Southwest/NW Mexico and into the far southern Plains and eventually into the lower Mississippi Valley, although they differ on the exact placement and evolution of this trough and attendant features. Regardless, this will yield increased chances for precipitation (up to 60% PoPs) and more widespread QPF, with the most recent NBM showing around a 40% probability of rain exceeding 1" at MCI from late Friday night into Saturday evening. That being said, quite a bit of uncertainty remains with this system as the NBM shows roughly a 35 to 40% probability of less than 0.1" of rain at MCI, as well. Some very low end (roughly 10%) chances remain for some wintry precip across portions of the region for Saturday, although at this time little to no winter weather impacts are anticipated.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the sites. Light/variable winds overnight will give way to prevailing southerly winds throughout the daytime hours, including sustained winds to around or a bit above 10 kts and gusts to around 20 kts by the afternoon/after 18z. Sustained winds remain after 00z to near 10kts, including the potential for occasional gusts into the teens kts. At the end/just after the current TAF period, a cold front will be approaching the region from the N/NW, which will quickly turn winds back out of the the north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.