textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm up to seasonally normal, then above normal temperatures possible later this week.

- Some passing snow flurries possible Tuesday morning. No accumulations expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Passing clouds and snow flurries (across far northern MO) this morning signaled the start of a warming trend across the region. Clouds slowly vacated the area allowing solar heating and southerly warm air advection to elevate temperatures back toward seasonal normals; however, some late cloud building this afternoon, might keep us just short of initial high temperature expectations. Large scale ridging begins to dominate the mid- CONUS weather pattern which works both to keep skies relatively calm and temperatures on a relative upward trend. Northwesterly flow aloft regulates the warming trend as cooler air drags down from interior Canada. This keeps highs from trending much above normal through midweek. However, temperatures settling in the upper 30s to 40s is much nicer than the Arctic blast we have been experiencing for the past several days. Low clouds look to build back in overnight below the nocturnal inversion which might trap enough moisture near the surface to create some patchy fog tomorrow morning, especially in low lying areas.

A shortwave trough migrates through the flow late Monday into Tuesday bringing with it just enough CVA to generate some ascent which may encourage some snow flurries along the MO/KS border during the morning hours of Tuesday. Little to no accumulations are expected as dry air continuously intrudes behind this wave resulting in lessening moisture potentially fizzling out any precipitation that develops.

Later in the week, a stronger shortwave rounds the synoptic trough across eastern Canada. This shortwave is expected to transit through the central Plains Thursday which looks to shift the pattern ever so slightly, but slightly enough to open up a rather unique setup for warm air advection from the leeward side of the Rockies. This wave looks to effectively shift the axis of NW flow from interior Canada to just east of the Rockies where air off the Cascades is orographically descended, warmed, and dried before getting ushered into the central CONUS by upper level winds. Tag team that with southwesterly surface flow sourcing warm dry air from west TX and you have a potential for warming 5 to 10 degrees above normal by the end of the week. Now some uncertainty continues as NBM ensemble spreads are about 10 to 15 degrees with low end guidance suggesting hours in the 40s and upper bound guidance suggesting the potential for near 60 degree highs. Much of this uncertainty is tied to the depth of the late week shortwave combined with the strength of the ridge which builds in from the west behind the wave. One other aspect we will have to keep an eye on is the potential for precipitation as this wave flows through. The kinematic presentation of low level convergence, upper level CVA, and somewhat saturated vertical profiles paint a potential for precipitation; however, the converging 500mb winds aloft and expected relatively dry air masses moving in from the north and west keep the prevailing thoughts of a dry forecast at this time.

Extended guidance looks to shift the main flow of the northerly jet north of the KC region which generally creates opportunities for normal to warmer than normal conditions echoed by the CPC outlook. However, extended deterministic guidance does maintain the general NW to SE orientation of flow across the eastern CONUS through the forecast period; so some dips back toward winter thermal expectations remain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR cigs are expected with incr high clouds expected thru the TAF pd. The main concern for aviators will be the potential for fog development btn 10Z-16Z which is fcst to reduce vis to 3SM-5SM (2SM with ocnl vis dropping to 1/4SM at STJ). Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 15Z-16Z. Aft 15-16Z winds will incr out of the ESE/SE btn 5-10kts before becmg lgt and vrb again aft 23Z-00Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.