textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter storm begins late this evening into early Saturday morning and lasts into Sunday morning. Latest forecast trends continue to push the heaviest snowfall to the south with 2 to 5 inches north of I-70 and 4 to 8 inches to the south.

- Dangerous cold persists during the winter storm as well with dangerous wind chills in the teens and single digits below zero through Monday

- Below normal temperatures with a generally dry pattern expected for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

High pressure stretched from the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon. This Arctic airmass was leading to temperatures in the low teens and single digits above zero across much of northern Missouri and northeastern Kansas with temperatures below zero in Iowa. Winds were slowly diminishing across the region, but were still gusting to 15 to 20 mph in spots leading to wind chills in the teens below zero. Heading into tonight, snow will spread across the region after 9-10PM from southwest to northeast as the first wave of the system arrives. This is in association with the arrival of a shortwave flung off an upper low located off the southwestern California coast. Snow will be slow to start with very dry air near the surface to contend with. The column will eventually saturate and snow will reach the surface late this evening into the early morning hours of Saturday. There may be a lull in the snowfall through the day on Saturday as models were previously advertising this, but the 23.12 suite of models show more continuous light snow through the day. This is helped by favorable jet dynamics aloft as we remain in the right entrance region of a 160-190 knot jet over the Ohio Valley. This will be further enhanced with the development of another jet streak over the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning placing us in the left exit region for even more lift. Given the very cold air mass in place, this system will be all snow with no concerns about mixed precipitation. Additionally, a very deep dendritic growth zone will be in place from the surface to almost 500mb resulting in efficient snow growth and snow ratios around 18:1 through the event. This will be a drier snow than normal across the region. Light snowfall will continue for Saturday and Saturday night before ending through the day Sunday.

Models have trended a bit southward with the latest runs and our forecast reflects that trend. Snowfall totals of around 2 to 5 inches are expected north of the I-70 corridor with totals of 4 to 8 inches along and to the south with isolated higher amounts across our southern counties. For the KC metro area specifically, totals of 3 to 7 inches are expected with lower amounts to the north and higher amounts to the south. With the lowering of snowfall totals in the north, have downgraded the northern row of counties in the Winter Storm Warning to an Advisory.

Temperatures will remain very cold through the weekend and into Monday with highs in the single digits above zero Saturday and teens above zero on Sunday. Overnight lows will fall into the single digits above and below zero tonight through Sunday night with wind chills in the teens and single digits below zero. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for tonight through Saturday morning with additional cold headlines likely needed, especially for Sunday night/Monday morning. While we have adjusted temperatures cooler for overnight lows, the fresh snowpack and clearing skies Sunday night may allow lows to trend even cooler perhaps putting some records at risk.

Westerly to northwesterly flow will then set up across the central CONUS for next week with generally dry conditions expected. A weak system may bring a few flurries in the Wednesday night into Thursday time period, but most areas look to remain dry. Temperatures will warm into the 20s and lower 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday before another shot of cooler air arrives for the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon and into this evening. Snow will arrive by late evening and will likely persist through the remainder of the period, although there may be a lull late Saturday morning. These snow showers will bring MVFR visibilities starting early Saturday morning with IFR visibilities starting around sunrise. Ceilings will slowly lower early Saturday morning with MVFR ceilings arriving by mid- morning. Gusty northerly winds will diminish over the next few hours, and continue to slowly subside to 10 knots or less for tonight and tomorrow morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-031>033. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for MOZ028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-032-033. KS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for KSZ025-102. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-103>105. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ102.