textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds to continue through sunset tonight, with cooler/drier weather through early next week.

- Next chances (40-60%) for precipitation increasing by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across northern Missouri.

- Temperatures rising by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Earlier showers have subsided this afternoon with the gradual exit of a surface cyclone off to the east, with high pressure building in from the west. The vertical profile of this surface cyclone has remained stacked through the morning and early afternoon, with marginal dCVA shifting the primary upper-level trough off towards the east at a snail's pace. As a result, cloud cover has persisted over much of central/eastern MO, with sustained north/northwesterly advection providing cooler and drier air to the forecast area. This synoptic setup is helping to dampen temperatures for today across central/eastern MO, where cloud cover is preventing substantial surface heating through the day. However, for areas further north/west where the sun has emerged through the clouds, temperatures have risen more near the 80s. This synoptic setup has also prompted a strong pressure gradient to develop between the slowly retreating upper-level trough and approaching upper-level ridge. Gusts of 35-40 mph have been observed across the area as low- level winds mix down to the surface alongside ambient winds around 15-20 mph, keeping the day pleasant albeit a little windy.

As the surface cyclone and upper-level trough continue their slow retreat off towards the east, the aforementioned upper-level ridge will continue pushing into the central CONUS from the west. As this occurs, skies will clear out and winds will slow under a lessening pressure gradient force. There is some potential for fog development across northern MO tonight with these conditions setting up, especially for areas that saw rainfall earlier today. However, with sustained winds still remaining higher overnight, this potential would remain patchy at best. The remainder of the weekend will remain pleasant with continued advection of cooler, drier air under a northerly wind pattern, before surface winds shift out of the south by the beginning of the week. The forecast remains dry through early midweek, with temperatures slowly climbing into the mid/high 80s across much of the forecast area.

By Tuesday, the upper-level ridge will continue getting pushed off towards the east by shortwave disturbances at the base of an upper-level trough near the Hudson Bay, placing the forecast area under quasi-zonal flow. Under this flow pattern, PoPs increase by midweek from several low-level shortwaves traversing the flow between the upper-level trough to the north and a building ridge over the southwestern CONUS. Deterministic and probabilistic guidance continue highlighting northern MO for the greatest potential for precipitation during this period (40-60%) by Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. However, some finer details of the forecast still remain uncertain at this time, making it difficult to ascertain exact hazards. With this consistent signal, future forecasts will need to monitor this system for greater confidence in evolving threats. Beyond this, greater deviation in synoptic guidance continues to decrease confidence in the evolution of the forecast through the end of next week regarding future PoPs. Under consistent southerly flow in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, temperatures by the end of the forecast look to rise into the high 80s and low 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Isolated to scattered cumulus will persist through around sunset, after which sky conditions are expected to improve to SKC. Breezy and gusty northerly winds will also continue through sunset before calming to 5-10 kts sustained overnight. Some fog may be able to develop across north-central/northeastern Missouri late tonight, though winds may not be light enough to permit development. With the surface low moving away, winds will become increasingly northeasterly by tomorrow afternoon while surface high pressure builds in up north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.