textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- One more afternoon of near normal temperatures, then Arctic air

- Further Northward Trend for Snowfall This Weekend, Northern Edge Still Uncertain

- Bitter Cold Wind Chills Most of the Weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 423 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Surface anticyclone is over the area this morning, and will be pushed southeastward with brisk north-northwestelry mid-level flow. Should see plenty of sunshine today, with only a few passing clouds. With surface high moving southeastward, and first shot of dCVA into the southwestern CONUS, expecting southwesterly flow by this afternoon that will then gradually veer through the evening. This should boost temperatures back into the lower 40s for most of the forecast area, with upper 30s toward the Kirksville region. Strong surface anticyclone over western Canada pushes the Arctic Airmass southeastward as a mid-level vort max from the Canadian closed-low system pushes stronger northwesterly flow into the Central CONUS. The PV anomaly over the Pacific shifts eastward, promoting more troughing over the southwest CONUS where multiple short-wave perturbations will start to emanate from.

Friday afternoon, the strong surface anticyclone continues its push into the Central CONUS as well as pushing the strong Arctic Cold Front through the area. Several lobes of mid-level vort maxima start ejecting eastward toward the southern Plains and lower Mississippi River Valley and will promote surface pressure falls in the southwestern CONUS. This will eventually develop a stronger surface cyclone, but will stay several hundred miles south of the forecast area. The open wave between 850mb to 700 MB should result in southerly flow late Friday that starts to increase moisture in this layer. However, the approaching surface anticyclone from the northwest and the Arctic airmass will starve the boundary layer of most of its moisture. From here, is where the divergence in deterministic model solutions begins. The 00z GFS is now struggling to phase the H5 trough axis from the northern wave with the axis from the southern trough axis, which is creating multiple periods of enhanced dCVA across the Central CONUS. Based on subjective analysis, there are three notable axes at H5 with enhanced vorticity, meaning three areas of distinct lift. The southern most trough axis in the GFS solution though is not digging as far south into Mexico as the 00z cycles form the previous night had it. This actually tracks the surface cyclone closer the coast through the Gulf. The ECMWF on the other hand only has two H5 trough axes, making the northern one slightly deeper and slightly wider in its influence with its dCVA, though perhaps not as strong. The ECMWF also tracks its cyclone center directly along the Gulf Coast from Texas into Louisiana. This has access to a bit more moisture, and continues to advect better moisture northward and at a faster speed. The change in the ECMWF is that it brings the surface anticyclone a bit further south, and slightly stronger, closer to what the GFS has been trying to do it with. As a result, this provides a slight delay to increased boundary layer moisture, but, this is still faster than the GFS. This is why the ECMWF likely had a subtle decrease it is progged snowfall totals. Then there is the NAM, which is handling the H5 pattern differently than the GFS and ECMWF, and that vort max quickly gets absorbed northward into the northern trough axis. But the surface features track more closely with that of the ECMWF, and this too brings in boundary layer moisture and starts snowfall earlier than the GFS. This is the first source of uncertainty, is how quickly snowfall starts. Current forecast has snow starting late Friday Night and overnight. However, if a GFS boundary layer moisture profile (that is lack of moisture) holds, accumulating snow may hold off until early Saturday morning. Holding off on snow by 6 hours would result in the lower end of expected snowfall ranges being realized. The second source of uncertainty, is how far north does sufficient moisture actually reach. Looking at postage stamp plots of all ensemble members, there are some that take QPF all the way to Interstate 80 in Iowa, and there are some that have the northern suburbs of KC dry while the southern suburbs get high QPF. Most of the forcing for our snow will be driven from 850mb and upward from the passing vort maxima, which means it has to be enough to overcome the surface anticyclone. There is some signal in both GFS and NAM that areas from Linn County KS to Henry County MO may see some lower EPV and weak FGEN processes, tied closed to where the strongest Q-vector convergence is at 700mb and 500mb. It is not a slam dunk though for CSI release. The DGZ will be fairly deep though. Although the raw lift values are not as impressive as they are over the Ozarks region, the lift will still be there to result in snow ratios of 17:1 or even 18:1. But lack of any strong baroclinic gradient will largely prevent these typical dendrite enhancements from being realized. Taking a dive in to ensemble output, GEFS mean is between 2-3 inches for I-70 to Hwy. 36, and 4-6 inches southward. The GEFS remains more moist than its deterministic counterpart. Other ensemble suite means still try to depict 3-5 inches right around Interstate 70, and then higher as you move toward the Ozarks. However, these solutions with higher end amounts are starting the snowfall fairly early, and at times when we may still have a very dry boundary layer. Overall ensemble probabilities for exceeding 3 inches of snowfall are high, about 60 percent as far north as Hwy. 36, and with a threshold of 5 inches just a tad under 50 percent. Note these percentages are much higher for areas well south of Hwy. 50. For some individual ensemble members and their associated probability of exceedance maps, have just under a 50 percent chance for 5 inches of snowfall (criteria for winter storm warning in our area). But, these all assume a 10:1 ratio, so with higher ratios, their probabilities for 5 inches of snow given the same QPF is actually above 50 percent. There are some outliers that continue to skew the distribution quite a bit, as some locations have even their 75th percentile snow values near 10 inches south of Interstate 70. While that is not out of the realm, that is going to take a lot to overcome the dry air that will be in place. But, describes the high degree of uncertainty we are still facing with this snowfall forecast. Given that probabilities for 5 inches of snowfall are starting to sneak above 50 percent for areas around Interstate 70, have expanded the Winter Storm Watch northward. The lower end amounts are below winter storm criteria, but the upper end potential is solidly in it. Given the potential impacts with the single digit air temperatures, along with neighboring offices have pulled that watch northward. Some of these counties may only end up with advisory level snow, but for now the watch will help describe the upper end potential if that moisture surge is able to occur. The final push of CVA exits the area late Sunday, but most of the forcing for snow should be well eastward by Sunday afternoon. A fresh snow pack may lead to very cold temperatures, and bitter wind chills that continue into Monday of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

A few passing high clouds expected throughout the afternoon but surface high pressure will keep conditions VFR today. Winds will shift to be west-southwesterly for part of the day, then veer to be from the north as a front moves late this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for MOZ001-011>014-020>025-031>033. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for MOZ028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for MOZ028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for MOZ002>008-015>017. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday for MOZ002>008-015>017. KS...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Saturday for KSZ025-102. Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for KSZ025-057-060-103>105. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to noon CST Saturday for KSZ057-060-103>105.