textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into tomorrow. Severe weather in the form of damaging straight line winds, large hail, and possibly a brief tornado or two can be expected tonight. The multiple round of rain could also lead to flash and river flooding.

- Drier and cooler conditions are expected Tuesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Cluster of storms that developed near Hays KS this morning has continued to evolve into a bow echo racing across eastern KS. Meso- analysis from SPC suggests storms are building into increasingly unstable environment with 1500-2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE with ~40 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. As mid level winds increase through the late afternoon hours, expect bulk shear to increase closer to 50 knots. With storms becoming increasingly surface based as they build into the area, expect increased wind threat. Warn on forecast has increased the 1"+ hail threat across Linn KS ~21Z this afternoon with southern end of the line, and a more widespread wind threat increasing after 21Z ahead of the line. Precipitable water is running in the neighborhood of 1.3", well above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

After the initial line pushes east across the area, could see additional development behind the line as additional mid level short waves build east and 30-40 knot low level jet develops. Inflow into the region could be shifted a bit by potential outflow from initial line of storms. HRRR has hinted at this potential over the last few hours, leading to additional development and training of storms along the I-70 to highway 50 corridors. Given this potential and antecedent wet conditions, have expanded the flood watch to include much of the forecast area tonight. Additional storms tonight could be strong given the steep lapse rates from 800-700 mb (potentially exceeding 8 degrees C/km) in combination strongly sheared environment. Upper level divergence increases after 06Z tonight and continues Monday morning as left exit region of upper level jet noses into the area. Overall, you can see trends in the models of multiple rounds of storms overnight, but specific timing is difficult to ascertain at this point.

Strongly sheared and unstable environment continues tomorrow morning as warm front races north across the area. As such, could see a brief recovery in temperatures through the morning hours with surface temperatures climbing into the 70s, but environment doesn't appear to be all that strongly capped so could be looking at potential for additional storms until cold front shifts through the region in the late morning/early afternoon hours.

Cooler and drier conditions are expected much of the remainder of the week, which are well needed.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Low confidence forecast with weakly capped and unstable atmosphere remaining across the area through the overnight. Used the 22Z HRRR to try to concentrate thunderstorm mention at the individual TAF sites, as forecast soundings indicate a storm is possible at nearly any point throughout the night. Expect MVFR ceilings through much of the night into Monday morning, potentially seeing some partial clearing behind cold front after 16Z Monday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Monday evening for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046. KS...Flood Watch through Monday evening for KSZ025-057-102>105.