textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably warm with relatively low humidity today and tomorrow.

- Above normal temperatures arrive on Saturday, with humidity gradually increasing through the weekend and into next week.

- Hot and moderately humid conditions expected for Sunday into the middle of next week, with maximum afternoon heat index values in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a 598 dam H5 high centered over the Desert Southwest with associated high amplitude ridging extending north all the way into northern Alberta and Saskatchewan. To the east of this, a mid/upper trough is in place from Ontario southward into the Ohio Valley. Our CWA remains beneath northwesterly flow aloft between the western ridge and the east/northeastern trough. Meanwhile, at the surface, the weak cold front that moved through the region yesterday has stalled over the Ozarks, with a 1020 mb high sliding into eastern Nebraska. This has resulted in mostly clear skies and calm winds this morning, with temperatures in the 60s. The synoptic scale pattern remains generally the same throughout the day today. High temperatures this afternoon should range from the lower 80s across far NE Missouri where the upper trough will have more influence, to as warm as the upper 80s to 90 degrees for areas south and southwest of the KC metro where H5 heights will be higher closer to the western ridge. Dew points should reside in the upper 50s to lower 60s, keeping conditions comfortable. By tomorrow, an upper trough is progged to come across the northern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, which will help push the upper ridge axis a bit further east, with higher H5 heights creeping in from the west. This should yield temperatures a couple degrees warmer for Friday afternoon, but dew points in the upper 50s should keep conditions relatively comfortable once again.

The upper trough across the PNW continues to push eastward into the Intermountain West on Saturday and into the Northern High Plains by Sunday, with the H5 low deepening and an accompanying surface cyclone developing. This will flatten the upper ridge and push the center of the H5 high over Texas and Oklahoma, sending temperatures into the low to mid 90s on Saturday and mid 90s on Sunday. This will also usher in increased southerly low level flow, with south winds on the order of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph for Saturday and Sunday afternoons, and will yield modest moisture return, with dew points returning to the low to mid 60s. The closed H5 low is progged to move across southern Saskatchewan into central Manitoba on Monday and toward the Manitoba/Ontario border by Tuesday, pushing a cold front across the Upper Midwest. Modest moisture return should continue, with dew points increasing to the mid 60s by Monday afternoon and upper 60s by Tuesday afternoon. With increased moisture and some weak forcing for ascent, chance PoPs returning to the forecast Monday morning (20 to 30%) and again on Tuesday morning (20 to 40%), primarily for areas north of Interstate 70. Otherwise, expect hot and moderately humid conditions to continue for Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the mid 90s and max heat index values in the upper 90s to perhaps low 100s for most locations.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals under clear skies with light northerly winds. Patchy fog at STJ has reduced VIS to 6SM, and there could be brief periods where VIS drops to MVFR or even IFR between now and roughly 13z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period under mostly clear skies, with light (around 5 knot) northerly winds becoming variable by tonight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.