textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible overnight into Friday morning. A few storms could produce hail approaching quarter size.

- Conditional threat for supercells capable of producing all severe hazards Friday afternoon and evening.

- A line of showers and thunderstorms are likely late Friday night out ahead of an approaching cold front, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

- Cooler behind the front on Saturday, but temperatures quickly rebound to above normal by Sunday and into Monday.

- Another chance for strong to severe storms on Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 245 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Updated to include mesoscale details based on 00z HREF and 06z CAMs.

Overall synoptic scale pattern description from 03/05/2026 1125pm update still holds with respect to the 00z HREF run and incoming 06z HRRR and other CAMs. As the main H5 trough ejects eastward along with deepening surface low and cold front, kinematic parameters with the strong jet streak will be supportive of severe storms. For the discrete storm potential in the open warm-sector through the afternoon and early evening hours, still largely unsure about boundary layer's ability to destabilize. A few of the 06z CAMs continue to produce shower activity as late at 18z across portions of the forecast area. HREF members that quickly clear out morning activity achieve MUCAPE by the middle of afternoon around 1750 J/kg, while those keeping cloud cover struggle to get above 1000 J/kg. Perhaps some type of disturbance ahead of the main vort maxima could promote an hour or two of H5 height rises with weak subsidence that provides a few pockets of insolation and initiates a storm, or perhaps provide some kind of differential heating boundary. However, model sounding analysis is not showing favorable lapse rates in any particular vertical level, a hindrance to updraft strength. The shear environment in the open warm sector is fairly healthy, with deep layer bulk shear values generally around 30-40 kts. And as the surface low deepens over the Plains, surface winds across the forecast area back which drastically increases low-level SRH (0-1km potentially hitting above 200 m^2/s^2). Low-level hodographs are curved sufficiently for initial mean wind moving storm to develop a low-level meso, and drastically increase streamwise vorticity with anything that takes a right hand turn, which would drive the tornado potential. The kinematics are there for a strong storms this afternoon across the warm sector, but mesoscale influences on the thermodynamics are not. CAPE through the hail growth zone is not looking great based on CAM soundings currently available for this afternoon. The large hail threat will largely be tied to storm-scale processes, and may need the H5 jet to kick in to reshape the hodograph a bit to get the extra lift needed. The wind will be tied to any precipitation loading, or RFD action with anything discrete. All of this potential is tied to how the thermodynamic environment pans out today. And the last few runs of CAMs, are not favoring this.

A line of storms is still expected to form along the cold front later Friday evening. Large scale lift should spread most of the lower Missouri River Valley from the H5 vort maxima moving through, along strongest jet streak axis moving through. 0-3km CAPE along the leading edge is fairly high, with increasing deep layer shear along the initiating front. This should help generate a stronger cold pool as the system evolves, resulting in severe wind gusts of 60-70 MPH. The 0-3km shear vector is currently progged to align parallel the line of storms, which largely limiting mesovort generation along the leading edge. As with most linear events with strong forcing though, will need to monitor for local surges that could alter the orientation of the shear vector. This line moves west to east, and should move into eastern Missouri between 06-08z overnight into Saturday morning. Pockets of heavier rainfall are possible, but system should remain progressive enough to avoid any substantial hydro issues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a longwave trough over the Four Corners into the Desert Southwest with southwesterly mid/upper flow in place across the Plains and into the mid and upper Mississippi Valleys. The H850 low is centered over eastern Colorado, with a south southwesterly oriented low level jet in the process of developing, with 50 knots analyzed across eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, at the surface, a 998 mb surface low spins over southeastern Colorado, with a warm front lifting north toward our CWA. This helped blossom relatively robust convection across northeastern Kansas by Thursday evening, with these storms moving across NE Kansas into NW Missouri at present time. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe, with hail being the primary hazard. Moisture advection will continue tonight thanks to the low level jet and as the warm front progresses northward through the region, with dew points rising into the mid to upper 50s by 6 AM. Another cluster of showers and storms currently across northern Oklahoma near the Kansas line should eventually make their way into the region, potentially impacting the KC metro in the 2 to 5 am time frame, with yet round of showers and storms potentially impacting the region by mid to late morning per the most recent HRRR runs. It will be very interesting to see how these potential rounds of convection impact or alter the environment heading into Friday afternoon and evening.

By mid Friday afternoon, the aforementioned broad mid/upper trough currently over the Four Corners/Desert Southwest is progged to split into two distinct impulses, with the leading shortwave trough ejecting into the Central Plains, with a 60+ knot cyclonic jet streak rounding the base of the trough from New Mexico into far SE Nebraska. At the surface, one surface low will slide eastward over the SD/NE/IA tri state border while another moves into west central KS, with an accompanying cold front bridging the two surface lows and approaching the region from the northwest. This will place our CWA within the open warm sector, with high temps reaching the the low to mid 70s, SSW winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph, and dew points into the upper 50s to lower 60s. By 4 pm Friday, SPC HREF SB CAPE ensemble mean is around 750 to 1000 J/kg, with around 40 knots of deep layer shear. However, a fair amount of convective inhibition looks to be present due to a cap at the 750 to 850 mb layer, and could be hard to overcome, especially with quite a bit of cloud cover likely remaining into Friday afternoon. If storms are able to initiate and take root, supercells capable of all severe hazards will be possible. Most recent CAM guidance is not particularly excited about robust convection Friday afternoon and early evening, only suggesting strong to severe storms as the cold front pushes through late Friday night, which would likely be in the form of a line of thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few mesovortices given 30 knots of 0-3 km bulk shear. Severe threat should decrease as the line progresses further east, with the front likely to completely exit the CWA to the east by around 5 AM Saturday.

Temps will be cooler behind the front on Saturday, but temperatures are projected to rebound quickly, with highs in the upper 60s on Sunday and into the upper 70s on Monday. Dry conditions are likely Saturday into Monday, as well. By Tuesday, a closed H5 low centered over NW Mexico is projected to become an open wave and eject out across the Southern Plains, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms, with strong to severe storms possible yet again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A messy TAF period on deck across the sites given ongoing and subsequent potential showers and storms. Have attempted to hone in on windows of greatest confidence as well as signaling that worst conditions will be more transient/temporary via the use of TEMPO groups this afternoon and then this evening/tonight. Gusty SW winds prevail ahead of the front, then shift gusty out of the NW, in both cases gusting in to the 20s kts. Some lower 30s kt gusts are possible/likely daytime today. Additional restrictions are likely via ceilings with plethora of guidance zeroing in on MVFR ceilings pre and post frontal. Given the messy situation, expect there to be multiple amendments through 06z, aside from the routine issuance times.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.