textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Intermittent showers and thunderstorms continue through the day. A few scattered strong to isolated severe storms are possible. Hail and wind being the primary threats.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected mid and late week. There is some potential for strong to severe storms (particularly on Friday). Heavy rainfall, hail, and damaging winds are the primary concerns. Tornado potential looks rather limited at this juncture.

- An additional 1-2 inches of rain is expected through Saturday. Some locally higher amounts are possible introducing concerns for potential river and flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a shortwave trough across the Great Basin with 40+ knot zonal westerly flow aloft over our CWA downstream. At the 850 level, increased southwesterly flow has continued to yield moisture flux into the region, with saturation up to 850 mb per model soundings. At the surface, an east-west oriented warm front is analyzed from southern Oklahoma through central Arkansas. A large swath of fog reducing visibilities from 1 to 5 miles as well as widespread very low stratus (200 to 600 feet) continues across the region late this evening. Increased isentropic ascent should help generate areas of light rain across the region (primarily southern half) overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. The warm front currently analyzed across OK and AR will lift northward throughout the morning and afternoon hours of Tuesday, with it progged to get as far north as the northern edge of the Ozark Plateau by mid Tuesday afternoon. Continued fog and low stratus should continue north of the lifting warm front through much of Tuesday, with high temps in the low to mid 50s for most locations (highs into the 60s for far southern areas of the CWA assuming the warm front is able to lift that far north). Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough across the Great Basin ejects into the central High Plains by mid to late Tuesday afternoon, with increased westerly mid level flow overspreading the CWA, providing sufficient deep layer wind shear. The SPC HREF suggests only modest instability, with 500 to 750 J/kg of MU CAPE generally along and south of Interstate 70 late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. With increased ascent by Tuesday evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms are probable to likely (60% to 80%) Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, with the potential for an updraft or two to become well organized enough to produce some marginally severe hail. As such, SPC has a marginal risk for severe hail for the southern half of our CWA for this time period.

The shortwave continues it slow eastward progression into Wednesday, with the center of the associated H5 low progged to be over SE Nebraska by late Wednesday afternoon, with the surface boundary likely to be draped from roughly St Louis into SW Missouri. Showers and thunderstorms will once again be very likely (70% to 90%) through the daytime hours of Wednesday into Wednesday night toward this boundary across the southern and southeastern counties within our CWA. Dry conditions, warmer temperatures (into the mid to upper 60s), and finally at least some sunshine should return by Thursday as the the shortwave and associated surface boundary finally clear to the east of the region.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms return Thursday night into Friday. A digging trough across the western CONUS traverses the Rockies and enters the Central Plains late Thursday night. An accelerating LLJ increases warm air and moisture advection across the central CONUS maintaining nocturnal instability. As the exit region of the upper level trough enters the leeward side of the Rockies a midlevel and surface lee trough develops. Quick frontogenesis abruptly taps into this unstable air mass encouraging the development of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night continuing into Friday. Early projections suggest a nocturnal MCS moving through the region early Thursday morning. PWAT values approaching 1.5 inches and broad ascent paint the potential for widespread long duration heavy rainfall. The axis of southerly flow then sets up along the I-35 corridor maintaining the flow of moisture and instability which could set up the potential for stronger to severe storms Friday afternoon. However, this potential will be heavily influenced by Friday morning's activity. A strong cold front looks to move through Friday afternoon and evening which will spark up deeper convection. There are some uncertainties for portions of far eastern KS and western MO as the environment post morning MCS would be unknown at this time. The air could become more stabilized from the overnight storms (although the continued warm air and moisture advection through the day will likely overcome this). What is more likely is cloud debris from Friday morning's activity curtailing solar heating just enough to hamper development. The biggest impact this would have is limiting convective development as the cold front moves through which delays the deeper more robust convection to central and southern MO and points east. This far out, there is confidence in potential flooding across the region with the expected multi-day accumulation of rainfall over the next week. Both river and flash flooding are possible. For Friday afternoon specifically, lapse rates suggest the potential for large hail. Damaging winds are also possible as non-storm winds around 25-30 MPH with 40+ MPH gusts plausible means that storms would not have far to intensify to reach severe wind criteria. Shear numbers are a little less than stellar for anything more than limited tornado potential at this time. Of course, any long term forecast is dependent on the events leading up to it; therefore, much can change between what we forecast today vs midweek.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR and lower conditions prevail for the duration of the forecast period. DZ with intermittent RA is expected to linger through much of the forecast period. Some isolated TSRA is possible past midday, but those chances are more likely east of the terminals. CIGs look to remain under 1000ft with many hovering around alternate minimums. Visibility also looks to remain reduced; however, there have been some peeks >5SM. Winds remain generally easterly slowly shifting to northeasterly after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.