textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms possible (40-70% chance) Thursday night into Friday across portions of northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.

- Additional showers and storms Friday evening through Saturday morning (30-50% chance south of I-70, 50-70% chance north of I-70). Rain chances generally decrease to about 20-30% by evening.

- Rainy start to next week areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

What has been generally zonal flow aloft will become increasingly meridional over the coming days, leading to a more active period for weather. A cold front has slipped southward throughout the morning. Latest surface observations indicate this boundary now sits near the Missouri River with temperatures roughly 3-5 degF cooler on the north side of front. As for high temperatures today, we could see about a 10 degF temperature difference between our northern and southern tiers of counties. The front is expected to continue sinking south throughout the afternoon and evening, becoming more diffuse in the process. Isolated shower or storm development south of the boundary this afternoon remains possible under WAA conditions, but it seems such development would be quite the uphill battle given poor shear and lackluster lapse rates. The arrival of the cold front could inspire a brief shower or storm. Even so, I would not expect anything remotely robust given the lack of upper- level support. Shower and storm activity appears to be more likely (40-70%) across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri beginning later this evening and then continuing through the early portions of the day on Friday. Continued low-level WAA will promote a region of elevated instability (as much as 800 J/kg) in these areas by late evening. Lift looks to be provided by an approaching shortwave with several members of the guidance resolving a localized vort max north of the Missouri River around 06Z; roughly around this time is when CAMs also begin to resolve scattered showers and storms. CAMs also present a backbuilding scenario across far northeast Kansas into northwest Missouri...with PWATs between 1.25-1.5", isolated flooding may occur where showers/storms continuously move over the same area.

Scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of northern Kansas and Missouri for much of the day on Friday. Further south, the cold front currently crawling through our CWA will lift back north as a warm front in the afternoon/evening. This with an approaching mid-level trough will reinvigorate rain chances for much of the region Friday PM into Saturday AM (hourly PoPs about 40-70%). Low-end rain chances will continue for the remainder of the day as the mid-level trough continues its journey through the Plains/Midwest. Generally along and west of the I-35 and I-49 corridors, these chances are closer to 20-30% given a low-level dry layer and little upper-level support from the vacating mid-level trough. Further into central Missouri, these rain chances are slightly higher at 30-50% where the mid-level trough may still retain some influence.

Sunday continues to look dry with temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s. A deepening upper trough over the western CONUS will slide to eastward over the weekend with its accompanying surface cyclone moving into the Great Plains on Monday. This system will result in a more active weather pattern than what we have become accustomed to in recent days and even some weeks. Indeed, the first half of the week looks rather soggy (Monday and Tuesday especially). Unsurprisingly, the entire CWA as well as a large chunk of the Central Plains are included in a Day 5 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Monday, Nov. 2. We will need to monitor potential instability corridors ahead of the surface low's attendant cold front as these areas would have an inherently higher risk for flooding due to convectively-driven high rainfall rates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Main concern for the next 24 hours is storm chances. Currently appears the best chances for showers/storms near the TAF sites is 09z to 15z on Friday and again after 22z. Coverage of any SHRA/TSRA will be scattered at best, so a PROB30 mention in the TAFs is retained with this update. Outside of potential brief sub-VFR in any convection, mainly VFR conditions are expected. East-northeast winds 5 to 10 kt overnight will veer slowly to a southeast direction on Friday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.