textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain expected throughout the day today...heaviest rain forecast south of the Missouri River where 1 to 2 inches will be possible.

- Temperatures climb 20 to 25 degrees above normal early next week.

- Next chance for precipitation come Thursday (20-40%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Early this morning, a upper level shortwave trough is moving from the eastern Rockies into the western High Plains. Out ahead of this feature, a south-southwesterly LLJ is nosing into the area providing for good moisture transport into the region. This LLJ is expected to be persistent today nosing into the area which will continue rain chances as the upper level shortwave moves across the central and southern Plains. Rain will then come to an end tonight as the upper level shortwave move through the local area. PWATs in the 1.00"- 1.20" range is in the 99th percentile for mid-February consequently, healthy rainfall totals are anticipated with areas south of the Missouri River forecast to pick up 1 to 2 inches. North of the Missouri River, rainfall totals will drop off quickly off from around an inch to just a few hundredths of an inch near the MO/IA border. Cloud cover and rain will hold highs in the low to mid 50s today. Sunday, the upper level system will slide east into the Tennessee River Valley. In its wake, broad upper level ridging will build in across much of the central CONUS in response to a upper level trough digging into the west coast. Surface high pressure will be in control over the forecast providing weak mixing however, height rise will still aid in highs rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday, the surface ridge will slide east allow WAA to develop. This will drive highs some 20 to 25 degrees above normal with highs in the mid to upper 60s.

The warmest day of the forecast period currently looks to be Tuesday as the aforementioned upper level trough over the west coast moves to the eastern Rockies developing a cold front across the western Plains. This will cause WAA to strengthen across the area allowing highs to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday night, the upper level trough ejects out into the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will force a Pacific front through the area with downsloping westerly flow behind it on Wednesday. This will drive highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. The next chance for precipitation (20-40%) arrives Thursday as a upper level shortwave moves out into he central Plains forcing a cold front though the area. Moisture at this time looks limited, and the 00Z run of GFS weakens the upper level shortwave as it moves towards the region so precipitation chances and amounts are low confidence at this time. The associated cold front with this system should however return temperatures closer to normal. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 50s to the northwest, where the front will pass earlier in the day to near 70 across the southeast. However, by Friday highs will return to the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Presently seeing IFR/LIFR conditions at all terminals with an ongoing rain system traversing the area. Low ceilings upstream increase confidence that IFR/LIFR conditions will persist through the duration of the event, though there may be some wobbling between categories as a result of heavier rainfall and adjusting visibilities/ceilings. Additionally, noting some potential for thunder further south of terminals, but not anticipating those conditions to reach terminals within the forecast period. Otherwise, expecting the system to begin clearing out around midnight, with ceilings gradually improving and winds shifting out of the north by tomorrow morning. Model guidance indicates the potential for lowered visibilities in the wake of the system due to possible fog development. For now, have elected to keep in mentions of BR with visibilities less than P6SM to allude to this potential.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.