textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Hazardous heat threat continues. An Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect through 9 PM Friday evening.

* Most areas to remain dry throughout the week. Northwestern Missouri has a low chance (15-25%) of seeing rain/storms midweek. Otherwise, the best chances for showers and storms arrives late Saturday into Sunday morning (currently 30-50% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

In the near term, the forecast remains largely unchanged. Domineering high pressure over the eastern CONUS and our position beneath the ridge will allow for at least several more days of dangerous heat across the region. Strong southerly flow and moisture advection has resulted in dewpoints surpassing the forecast values by 3+ degrees in some areas both Sunday and Monday. Thus, the primary heat-related forecast update involved a bump in forecast dewpoints, but even with this change, heat indices are still widely on track to fall near or within the 105-110F range today. An Extreme (Level 4 of 4) HeatRisk "bullseye" still sits over central Missouri and extends slightly westward toward US-65, with Major (Level 3 of 4) HeatRisk elsewhere.

With the ridge expected to hold firm, the Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect through Friday evening. During this stretch, most will stay dry. A surface cyclone which has brought severe weather to the Northern Plains is expected to continue lifting north into Canada while a trough amplifies near the California coast. In the coming days, this trough is expected to eject a series of shortwave impulses through the flow, allowing for additional storm chances across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Some convection may be able to dip into far northwestern Missouri late Wednesday/early Thursday and again late Thursday/early Friday, but probabilities remain low with both opportunities (only a 15-25% chance). The best chance for any widespread rain or convection does not arrive until Saturday when a shortwave rushes towards the Mid-Missouri Valley. Mid/long-range guidance does indicate some degree of frontogenetic forcing Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, but disparities remain (positioning, strength, timing, etc.). Likewise, there are questions about the quality of instability and deep-layer shear in this timeframe. Regardless, this still appears to be the greatest shot we have at meaningful precipitation this week, coming in at a 30-50% chance areawide. Additional details should be ironed out in future forecast iterations.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue into the weekend and the early portions of next week as ridging rebuilds over the central CONUS. While this timeframe does not look quite as concerning as the present heat event, it will warrant the close monitoring of trends in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions expected to persist at all terminals through the period. Not much adjustment from the previous forecast, with the inclusion of gusts between 25-30 kts at all terminals through the afternoon with diurnal cu barely beginning to present themselves at downtown terminals on satellite. Have gusts falling off around sunset tonight, before returning tomorrow between 15-17z across terminals. Guidance appears to be right on the cusp of LLWS impacts at terminals tonight with the passage of a LLJ, but have elected to keep mentions out of this TAF issuance until confidence is greater in definitive LLWS impacts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.