textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with the best chances south and east of the I-35 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats, though isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

- Another round of severe weather is anticipated on Friday afternoon and evening, with all severe hazards possible. Confidence is higher than average that widespread coverage of storms is expected. Confidence is lower on convective mode, which will have significant influence on what severe weather hazards will occur with the storms. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

- Much cooler weather is expected this weekend. Low temperatures on Saturday night may approach the freezing mark in northern Missouri.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Primary concern in the short term is severe-weather potential this afternoon/evening. A weak surface low in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa with an attendant cold front extending southward through eastern Kansas will shift eastward/northeastward this evening. Prompted by large-scale lift from an approaching perturbation this afternoon, convection is expected to initiate rapidly through late this afternoon (storms already developing in southeast Kansas as of 2 pm). Convection-allowing models (CAMs) have been consistently developing initially discrete convection along the front roughly near the I-35 corridor, growing quickly upscale into clusters/lines as the storms progress quickly eastward/northeastward through early evening.

Large hail will be the primary threat with discrete storms, with wind damage becoming more possible with time as storms grow upscale. Wind profiles are generally favorable for splitting supercells (confirming the large hail threat), but mean mid/upper flow is largely parallel to the approaching front. Storm interactions should be frequent as more and more cells develop, so the process of congealing may be quite fast. This would likely mute the tornado threat, but the risk is not negligible. Low-level shear is more than adequate for tornadoes, and LCLs lower from west-to-east across the forecast area (and are sufficiently low everywhere).

The good news is that the storms will be progressive, so the flooding risk is low today. The storms should generally be out of the forecast area by 9 or 10 pm, with the rest of the night expected to be dry. With the Pacific origins of today's weather system, Thursday should continue the streak of warm days (highs mainly in the 80s), with shortwave ridging keeping things dry (continuing through Thursday night).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 204 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Primary concern is the severe-weather episode expected on Friday afternoon/evening.

A deepening longwave trough in the western U.S. will slowly approach the northern/central Plains Friday. A predecessor vorticity maximum will eject northeastward into the Missouri and Mississippi Valley regions Friday afternoon/evening, in advance of a strong cold front moving southeastward from the northern into the central Plains. Substantial large-scale lift will be present (via warm advection and differential cyclonic vorticity advection) as the cold front approaches north/west portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Storms will rapidly develop during the afternoon along the front. Thermodynamic and kinematic profiles will be very favorable for severe storms, but the extensive nature of the large-scale lift and the largely parallel upper flow to the surging front suggests storm interactions will be rapid, resulting in quick upscale growth into an extensive line of storms with time. Damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes are possible as the line develops/matures, with large hail and isolated tornadoes the main threats during the initial stages of convective development Friday afternoon. Confidence is rather high that the entire region will see storms, with potentially numerous reports of severe weather, but given the rapid upscale growth expected...the messy resultant nature of the convection poses uncertainty with the magnitude of the severe risk. If storms can maintain a discrete nature for a sufficiently long period of time, an isolated strong tornado could occur given the highly favorable environment.

Flash flooding is also more of a concern on Friday, as multiple rounds of storms may develop during the afternoon/evening, especially if storms end up training on the south side of the developing mesoscale convective system (favoring southern portions of the forecast area). With recent rains across the area, we remain rather vulnerable for instances of flooding, particularly with small streams/creeks and in urban areas. Precipitable water values Friday afternoon will be unseasonably high (generally 1.3-1.6 inches), and training convection will be possible during the evening as the low-level jet increases, impinging on the southeastward-progressing cold front.

As the cold upper trough moves into the central Plains by Saturday, strong cold advection upstream of the front will bring much colder temperatures to the region by Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be 20-30 degrees colder than Friday, with lows Saturday night approaching the freezing mark in northern portions of the forecast area as a strong surface high approaches. Not out of the question we have to issue a few frost/freeze headlines for that period.

Warmer temperatures will commence quickly, with Sunday warming a good ten degrees with subsequent warming on Monday and Tuesday to temperatures a good 10-15+ degrees above average. The next chance for precipitation comes by the middle of next week, as long-range models are showing another active period developing for the close of April.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Main aviation concern this afternoon is convection, with storms expected to develop near the KC terminals around/after 20z. Think best timing for storms at MCI/MKC/IXD will be in the 20-22z time frame, but it still remains possible (around 50 percent chance) that storms develop mostly east of the TAF sites with no impacts at the terminals. On the other hand, if a storm develops and affects a terminal, impacts could be significant, with IFR/LIFR VSBYs and strong/erratic wind gusts in torrential rain and frequent lightning. Storms should move east of the terminals by 23z, with VFR thereafter. Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts 25 to 30 kt are expected this afternoon, gradually veering to west and northwest this evening, before diminishing and becoming light/variable after 06z. A steady south breeze should develop after 15z Thursday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.