textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms remain possible (30 to 60% chance) east of a Trenton to Sedalia line this afternoon and early evening, with an isolated severe thunderstorm not out of the question (10-15% chance).

- Breezy conditions are expected tonight and Saturday across the area, with the strongest wind gusts (30 to 40 mph) forecast in north-central and northeast Missouri. Much cooler temperatures and lower humidity levels are expected on Saturday as well.

- Temperatures gradually warm back to the 90s next week. The next significant chance for precipitation (30 to 60% chance) is on Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

After this morning's round of storms, forecast focus is on any redevelopment along the quickly moving cold front this afternoon. The front should be well east of the KC metro this afternoon, with storm chances generally confined to east of U.S. Highway 65 (and likely closer to U.S. Highway 63 and eastward). The CAPE/shear parameter space remains favorable for severe weather with any storms that develop, but the progressive nature of the front would suggest that the best potential for severe weather is to our forecast area's east. Nevertheless, a rogue severe gust may occur with the strongest storms in our area, with timing confined to the 2 pm to 7 pm window before the front sweeps eastward of the CWA.

That said, showery precipitation is expected in close proximity to the surface low and TROWAL feature in Iowa spilling into northern Missouri tonight into Saturday. No severe weather is expected with this convection, but a few lightning strikes and brief downpours may occur with any stronger convective cores that develop. Showers should move out of the forecast area by late in the day on Saturday.

An unusual feature of this system for this time of year is the strength of the northwest winds on the upstream side. Model soundings suggest decent mixing of 25-40 kt low-level winds to the surface from this afternoon through Saturday night, indicating potential for some 25-35+ mph gusts at times, particularly early this evening and again during the morning hours Saturday. Best chances for the strongest gusts are immediately to the west of the southward-drifting surface low in southeastern Iowa and eastern Missouri. These winds will be advecting cooler/drier air into the region through this period, with lows tonight in the 60s and highs on Saturday near or just above 80. Temperatures will only be slightly warmer on Sunday (low to mid 80s), with Saturday and Sunday nights seeing pleasant and perhaps even cool temperatures in the low to mid 60s (maybe even some upper 50s near the Kirksville area).

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Main concerns in the medium range are the warm temperatures expected much of next week as well as precipitation chances midweek onward.

A positively-tilted high-amplitude ridge will nose into the Upper Midwest and central Plains early next week, allowing for a warm-up of temperatures back to the upper 80s to the mid 90s from Monday onward in much of the area. The good news is that it will take some time for dew points to increase into the 70s across the area (staying mainly in the 60s through at least Tuesday), so heat indices will remain in the 80s to low 90s at worst through the early week. However, continued northward transport of warm/moist air from the Gulf will gradually allow temperatures to creep into the mid 90s and dew points back to the 70s by the mid to latter portions of next week. As a result, heat indices may approach the triple digits again by late week.

However, the overall pattern will be changing during the Wednesday-to-Friday time frame as well. A strong vorticity maximum will progress eastward near or just north of the U.S./Canada border on Tuesday, leading to more zonal flow in the mid/upper levels in its wake. This should temper the building heights in the western/central U.S. to some degree and will also bring us into closer proximity to the series of perturbations moving generally eastward in the faster upper flow. One such system will move into the northern/central Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, leading to multiple rounds of convection in the broader region during this period. Models are showing decent agreement (especially at this time range) for such convection to affect the Missouri Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. Reinforcing systems are likely later in the week and beyond as the flow becomes subtlely more northwesterly. As a result, though the region will remain on the southern periphery of the faster upper flow, some occasional bouts of convection may temper the warm-up that might otherwise occur in such a pattern.

Of course, this pattern is also one of fairly low predictability, owing to its dependence on developing/evolving convection. So the forecast beyond Tuesday becomes one of considerably lower confidence with time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

With the arrival and passage of the cold front, CIGs have dropped to MVFR and are expected to prevail through the afternoon hours, though some temporary breaks in cloud cover will also be possible during this period. Cloud cover looks to diminish late this afternoon/early this evening before the western edge of a cloud shield associated with showers/storms off to the north and east is expected to brush against the KS/MO border, marking a return to MVFR CIGs for the remainder of the overnight period. Conditions should improve to VFR around sunrise on Saturday morning. Throughout the duration of the TAF period, expect breezy northwesterly surface winds (~10-15 knot sustained and ~20-25 knot gusts) courtesy of the surface low.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.