textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures continue into early next week. - 15 to 20+ degrees above normal at times

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

In most cases across the area, not a cloud in the sky. Or at the very least, hardly a cloud in the sky. As broad mid-level ridging is building into Central CONUS today, not too much surprise there. This also lends to the ongoing seasonally warm to hot conditions. Temperatures early this afternoon are predominantly in the low to mid 80s, on their way to mid to upper 80s in most cases. A few spots near to south of Interstate 70 may touch the low 90s. This potential too is already evident with sites like Clinton MO already to 87 degrees.

The large scale pattern will begin to see significant changes through the weekend, to include... Hurricane Isaias makes landfall late tonight and gradually drifts northward through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Hurricane Simon makes landfall along the NW Mexican Coast late Saturday night. A trough/cutoff low begins to dig into the PNW and down the West Coast, and eventually brings Simon remnants into the fold. The general evolution is well corroborated among the deterministic synoptic models and their ensembles through the weekend. While Isaias drifts northward post-landfall, the west coast features will progress the pattern such that mid-level ridging builds into the central CONUs and helps deflect Isaias eastward, preventing any sensible effects to the forecast area. With the mid- level ridging though, well above normal temperatures will continue. Expect highs through the weekend similar to today, mid to upper 80s and some spots south of Interstate 70 possibly hitting the low 90s.

The work-week will start off similar to the weekend, if not a couple to few degrees warmer in spots as the thermal ridge axis gets pushed over the area. With depictions of low 20s deg C, high temperatures a couple to few degrees higher than the weekend are anticipated. This may bring some record highs into consideration, including the KC Metro where the existing record Monday is 91 (1899) and the current forecast is 90. Moving toward the middle portions of the week, a sizable amount of uncertainty remains in the forecast. Namely around precipitation onset and temperatures. This includes high temperatures spreads of 10 deg F or greater both Tuesday and Wednesday. That said, there appears there may be a gradually growing consensus around a faster and not as deep (latitudinally) western trough. Within the 12z LREF cluster analysis, this is suggested with ~41% of total members clustering around this prevailing solution and an additional ~19% around a similar, albeit slightly slower and weaker, solution. Should that prevail, it would tend to push the warm front further north, which in turn would favor warmer temperatures and best precipitation chances further north on Tuesday. At this time, the NBM and WPC guidance looks to still favor a cooler and more southerly solution, in part as they would have primarily used the previous couple runs of the LREF. For now, have not deviated from NBM/WPC guidance, with desire to see more run-run confidence and/or continued trend. Regardless, it will rain within the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame, just a matter of being able to narrow that window some. Of additional note, as the western trough kicks out into the Plains, so too will an attendant surface low and a possible window for strong to severe storms somewhere in the region Wednesday evening / night. This is most evident with the strong wind fields and forcing vs CAPE ... high-shear, low- CAPE. This too is reflected in the current SPC Day 5 15 percent risk area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the entire TAF period. Throughout Friday afternoon, winds will be out of the SW at around 10kts, with occasional gusts, before diminishing in the evening to around 5-10kts. Additionally this evening, winds will shift from SW to S. Skies will remain clear, before high based clouds from the east approach late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.