textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunny and cold today. Some solar assisted snow melt could lead to refreezing overnight.

- Slight chance for freezing drizzle across areas north of US-36 Wednesday morning. Flurries to light snow showers are possible Wednesday late morning through afternoon. Snow accumulations expected to be less than 0.25 inches.

- Much colder temperatures arrive Thursday with highs in the 10s to 20s. Overnight lows in the single digits to below zero.

- Potential for more snow this weekend as well as a noticeable warm up next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Midlevel ridging has cleared out skies across the region. Northwest flow combined with solar reflection off the snow pack keeps temperatures near to just above freezing today. Sunshine will likely melt some of the snow; however, temperatures will look to dip back below freezing shortly after sunset. This may lead to some patches of refreezing overnight of treated roadways where some snow has melted as well as some bridges and elevated surfaces.

Flow turns more southerly Wednesday as the ridge axis passes by the previous overnight. Some CVA aloft combined with a southward moving surface front may produce some light precipitation Wednesday. Just ahead of the front, saturated low levels combined with just enough lift could bring some freezing drizzle across areas north of US-36 to the MO/IA border. While no ice accumulations are anticipated, this could make travel hazardous. As the front progresses, the temperature profile quickly sinks to below freezing transitioning precipitation to scattered post frontal snow flurries/showers. This should affect most of the region as it progresses through the area from late morning through the afternoon. Any snowfall is expected to be fairly minimal with accumulations around a trace to 0.25 inches possible. The stout Canadian high pressure system that follows behind the front sinks temperatures further with highs on Thursday only expected to reach the mid to upper 20s. Overnight lows range from -5F to 10F with the potential of wind chills ranging from -15F to 0F. Mid to upper level flow turns more zonal to end the week with southerly flow at the surface. This will start a relative warming trend allowing highs to climb back above freezing as the weekend approaches.

Speaking of the weekend, extended guidance shows late Saturday into early Sunday being our next chance for substantial precipitation. A deep upper level shortwave is progged to swiftly move through the region Sunday. As it does so, a midlevel lee trough develops sparking another opportunity for snowfall across the region. However, like most systems, the placement of the warm and cold side will significantly affect who sees snow versus rain and how much of each will fall. Early presentations of this upper level wave creates some uncertainties as rather than being a cut off low or a deep digging trough, this looks to be a strong embedded wave. This complicates various forecast variables including storm strength and track. There is also a chance for nothing to happen if this wave does not materialize.

Long term guidance into next week shows an interesting scenario where temperatures could bounce back above 50 degrees. Low level warm air advection, solar heating, and ridging preceding the arrival of these temperatures certainly pose the potential for a warming trend. However, swift upper level NW flow through the vertical profile with the potential for gusts seems disconnected from the meteorological conceptual model leading to diminished confidence in that outcome. That said extended ensemble guidance does put a 40-50 percent probability of temperatures exceeding 50F; so, there is a chance.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period. SSW winds continue through the afternoon. A isolated gust is possible. Winds dissipate slightly after sunset. A front moves into the region toward the tail end of the period. Winds start shifting through west toward north and CIGs lower ahead of the front's arrival.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.