textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms are expected this morning into this afternoon. Small hail cannot be completely ruled out but severe weather is not expected.

- Brief snow showers is possible this afternoon (mainly north of HWY-36) after a strong cold front moves through the area, but no more than a dusting is expected.

- Windy conditions (35-45 mph wind gusts) are expected today into Monday morning. Wind chill values ranging from near zero to ten below zero are expected tonight into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Early this morning, showers have moved into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. A few thunderstorms may also be possible this morning as MUCAPE values of 500-1000J/Kg are evident over areas south of Highway 36. Severe weather is not anticipated but a storm capable of small hail cannot be ruled out this morning. The sharp cold front will move through the area this morning into early afternoon with highs for today in the 50s and 60s happening this morning with temperatures dropping through the afternoon into the mid 20s to mid 30s by late afternoon. This drastic temperature drop will come courtesy of very strong CAA in the form of northwest winds gusting to 40-45 mph. As such, a wind advisory has been issued for the area today into tonight. This quick temperature drop may allow precipitation to transition to snow before it comes to an end this evening. However, no more than a dusting is expected across extreme northern Missouri. With strong CAA continuing into tonight, temperatures will fall into the teens with wind chill values dropping to between zero and ten below. CAA will continue into the day Monday before surface high pressure moves into the area from the northern/central Plains tomorrow evening. This will continue to keep temperatures well below normal with highs in the mid 20s to lower 30s. A surface ridge of high pressure will build over the area tomorrow night providing a good radiational cooling setup allowing temperatures to drop into the low to mid teens. By Tuesday, the surface ridge shift south of the area allowing modest WAA to develop over the area. This will aid in temperatures rebounding to seasonal normal with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

The rest of the forecast package from Wednesday into next weekend continues to look dry with temperatures near to above normal. Wednesday, a surface ridge of high pressure will build over the area with subtle height rises aloft as northwest flow relaxes. this will allow highs to rise into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Wednesday night, a mid-level trough digging through the Great Lakes will force a back door cold front through the area dropping highs a few degrees in the low 30s to upper 40s. Friday another surface ridge will build over the region as northwest flow aloft again relaxes aiding in highs rising into the 40s to lower 50s. Similar conditions are expected Saturday with subtle height rise pushing highs into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Areas of fog across northern Missouri are expected to dissipate as a strong cold front swings into the area after 08Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front. A few of the stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing gusty winds. Strong gusty winds are expected behind the front as much cooler air builds into the region. The gust winds are expected to continue into Sunday night/Monday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ028-029-037>040-043>046-053-054. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033. KS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060-103>105. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 AM CST Monday for KSZ102.