textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will build into the region this weekend and prevail through the remainder of the forecast. Heat index values will range from near 100 to 105 Sunday through Friday.

- Low chances for precipitation across northern Missouri (15-25%) tonight into Sunday morning.

- Next chance for storms Wednesday night into Thursday across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri (15-25%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

The main forecast concern this forecast period will be the well above normal temperatures that being to build into the area today and are forecast to continue through next week. These above normal temperatures will come courtesy of a upper level ridge which is centered over the southwestern CONUS and southern Rockies this morning. Today this feature will build eastward into the southern and central Plains providing height rises across the region. This coupled with modest WAA will drive highs into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Tonight, a upper level shortwave will round the ridge and move into northern Missouri as a 45-50kt southwesterly LLJ noses into the area. Despite lacking moisture, a few showers or thunderstorms (15- 25%) will be possible across northern Missouri overnight into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow the upper level ridge axis builds directly over the region. This coupled with strong WAA will push temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal with highs in the mid 90s to near 100. The upper level ridge will remain in control over the area through Tuesday with highs remaining in the mid 90s to near 100. Fortunately, dewpoints in the 60s Sunday through Tuesday will keep heat index values from being much warmer than the air temperatures with heat indicies ranging between 95-104.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a upper level shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies into the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest. This will cause the ridge to flatten over the region as the ridge axis shifts into the southeastern CONUS. This will push a cold front towards the area Wednesday however highs will still remain in the mid 90s to near 100. However, better moisture may pool out ahead of this front driving heat index values into the 100-105 range. Late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the front may reach northern Missouri with a nocturnal LLJ focused on that area. This may allow a few showers and thunderstorms to develop across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri (15-25%). Despite the chance for morning storms, temperatures are still forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s again on Thursday. By the end of the week, the local area will be on the western periphery of the upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS which may allow shower and thunderstorm chances to continue Thursday night into Friday (15-25%).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

High pressure is exiting the area but still providing enough influence to keep skies mostly clear for the first few hours of the overnight. High-level clouds will start to move in Saturday afternoon. Winds will become more southerly through Saturday afternoon with gusts above 20kts possible.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.