textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures today.

- Dry conditions are very likely (>85%) through the week with above normal temperatures expected. There is a low chance (~15%) Thursday night across northern Missouri.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

High pressure is building southward across the central US this morning. Through the day, this high will settle into the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes area. This will shift our winds from light and variable, to the east, and eventually to the southeast late this afternoon and evening. Temperatures overperformed my forecast by a few degrees on Sunday and with clear skies and light winds shifting to the southeast, we should once again see temperatures climb into the middle to upper 70s.

For Tuesday onward, high pressure shifts to the eastern US, with low- level flow becoming southerly to southwesterly. In the upper-levels, broad upper ridging builds over the western US. This will lead to warm advection through the middle of the country and as a result, we'll see our highs climb into the low to mid 80s for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area, and the upper 70s for northern Missouri to the Iowa state line. This places highs about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. This pattern is also very likely to keep the area dry through most of the forecast. The exception continues to look like Thursday night. Ensemble guidance depicts a broad low chance, about 15-20% for at least 0.01" of rain, across northern Missouri. Overnight, models show an area of ascent, noted from 300k to 305K as the low-level jet develops. This also feeds into an area of diffluence aloft with strong upper-level jet energy moving across Iowa. Moisture still seems fairly limited though, with GFS forecast soundings for northern Missouri and southern Iowa showing the lowest 10,000 feet being dry, with some elevated instability above this dry layer. For now, slight chance PoPs are reasonable given the offsetting parameters of modest ascent but relatively poor low-level moisture profiles.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Patchy river valley fog this morning will dissipate soon after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with light and variable winds becoming light from the southeast this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.