textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances continue today with a very low risk of strong to severe storms.

- Seasonable conditions expected from midweek through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The upper system responsible for the storms and the severe weather risk on Monday (that fortunately didn't materialize in our forecast area) will be slow to shift to the east today as it becomes more negatively tilted over northeastern Kansas. As the upper low pivots this morning, low-level flow will wrap into the surface low with locally backed surface winds over northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Forecast soundings show modest, albeit somewhat shallow CAPE with little or no inhibition by late this morning/early this afternoon. This may result in low-topped convection and given the very strong shear may lead to low-topped supercells late this morning to early this afternoon. This risk appears greatest just northeast of the apparent triple point from far northeastern Kansas into far northwestern Missouri. There are some caveats with this. 1) This system is almost vertically stacked, which is less favorable than having an offset surface low and triple point of about 100-200 miles. 2) shear is extremely strong and mostly unidirectional, which may just rip apart updrafts.

For the remainder of the week and into the weekend, cooler but more seasonable conditions settle into the area. Normal highs for the area now in the upper 50s and our forecast shows highs within a few degrees of our normals through the weekend. The rest of forecast looks dry with no notable systems moving through the area through Saturday. The GFS continues to show a robust wave diving into the eastern half of the CONUS. This is considerably further east than yesterday and by early next week, upper ridging begins to build into the area, leading to temperatures trending above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A relatively messy TAF period expected. Initially, bands and clusters of showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting and moving through all TAF sites which may dramatically drop visibilities briefly with heavier precipitation. Behind the initial storms, additional lighter precipitation may continue before fully subsiding. Uncertain extent of MVFR cloud cover overnight before cold front approaches with another round of SHRA and a fall to low-MVFR ceilings Monday late morning into the afternoon and remainder of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.