textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Trending warmer this week. Highs approaching 90 look possible late in the week.

- Chance (15-30%) for storms Tuesday. Some of these may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon-evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Broad upper ridging over the western US, with broad troughing over eastern North America, is leading to northwesterly upper-level flow over the region currently. At the surface, high pressure passed through earlier and is no centered roughly from western OK into southern MO. That high will continue to shift to the southeast today, allowing for winds to become southwesterly, starting a general warming trend for the week. Highs today look to be about 5- 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with the warmest temperatures across far northwestern MO and northeastern KS.

The western ridging becomes more amplified by Tuesday, with a strong shortwave trough tracking southeast from Northern Plains into the Lower Ohio Valley. This will push a cold front southward through the area Tuesday, bringing the area a chance for showers and storms, with a low potential for strong to severe storms. Ahead of this front, southwesterly flow will prevail, helping temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s. Modest moisture advection into the area will lead to dew points climbing into the mid to upper 50 degree range ahead of the front. This allows for modest instability to build during the day. Ensemble mean SBCAPE generally ranges from about 800 J/kg to 1200 J/kg along and ahead of the front. This could be as high around 2000 J/KG in eastern KS and far western MO. With a jetstreak rounding the base of the upper-level shortwave, 0-6km shear will be fairly strong at 40 to as high as 50 kts. Low-level lapse rates will also become steep ahead of the front, with an inverted-V look to forecast soundings. All this will support the potential for damaging wind with the strongest storms. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates may also support some large hail in the strongest storms that develop. There are some negatives to mention with this setup. First, the strongest forcing aloft stays to our north and east with the shortwave. Second, surface winds are strongly veered, limiting convergence along the southward advancing front. It's uncertain we'll actually see storms develop given the weak convergence. Given this, the relatively low PoPs are reasonable, until confidence increases that storms may actually develop.

Temperatures cool slightly for Wednesday as high pressure moves over the region. Then for the later half of the week, temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to potentially the lower 90s. Shortwave upper-ridging will spread east into the middle of the country Thursday and Friday with strong southerly flow and warm/ moist advection. The strong warm/ moist advection may also lead to increasing precipitation chances with several opportunities. Friday morning, a mid-level wave will move across KS and may provide enough forcing to get some showers and storms going. A more notable shortwave will move into the region from the west bringing additional chances Friday night into the day Saturday. It should also be noted that the NBM continues to be much too warm for late in the week, forecasting well above record high temperatures for Friday. The current forecast, while potentially still too warm, is more representative of the anticipated warmer conditions for later in the week and has highs touching 90 degrees for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with light southwesterly winds through the day. Winds then increase after 00Z to 10-12kts from the south and should stay from south through the remainder of the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.