textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Below normal temperatures expected through Monday.

* Chance of minor snow accumulations across eastern Kansas Saturday morning. Chance of accumulating snow decreases further east into central Missouri.

* Above normal temperatures return Tuesday and continue through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A broad longwave 500-hPa trough is situated over the central CONUS with several shortwaves embedded within the pattern. The nearest shortwave to the area is positioned over the Rocky Mountains and is expected to advance eastward this afternoon and evening. At the surface, high pressure has spread over the Central and Northern Plains bringing lighter winds to the area. Sunny skies have allowed temperatures to rebound into the mid-30s with highs expected to reach the upper 30s and lower 40s this afternoon.

As the shortwave ejects across the Plains this evening, it will bring a chance (25-35%) of light snow to northwestern MO and northeastern KS early tomorrow morning. Saturation through the DGZ will occur around sunset this evening as a bank of low-to- mid level clouds spreads over the area. However, a layer of dry air beneath the cloud base will make it difficult for any snow to reach the ground. As snow falls into the layer of dry air, saturation will slowly occur and some light snow may reach the ground after midnight tonight through sunrise tomorrow morning. If any accumulations occur, they will be light with HREF probabilities showing a 30-50% chance for measurable snowfall (>0.1") west of I-29/I-49 by tomorrow morning.

Behind this shortwave, northerly and northwesterly surface and upper-level flow will continue to hold high temperatures in the 30s and lower 40s and low temperatures in the teens and lower 20s through Monday. Areas in northern MO may even see low temperatures dip into the single digits Monday morning beneath clear skies.

On Tuesday, upper-level ridging will build into the Central Plains bringing height rises and a return to unseasonably warm temperatures to the area. Highs are expected to climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday before pushing towards 70F on Wednesday. Model guidance is in decent agreement that another shortwave will cross the Northern Plains around midweek next week, although there are discrepancies in the track and timing of the system. There will likely be precipitation with this system, however, the track will play a big role in determining if any falls in the area. The good news is that the system does not look to bring much cold air with it, so any precipitation that does fall across the area, will be rain. The lack of cold air with the system will also allow the above normal temperatures to continue through the end of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Overnight, the forecast remains on track for lowering cloud ceilings preceding a chance for light snowfall at all terminals. Cloud ceilings anticipated to lower near MVFR, but not expected to drop below VFR. With continued low confidence in light snowfall potential, have elected to keep the PROB30 group. Expecting cloud ceilings to lift and clear out near the end of forecast period, with winds out of the north/northwest around 5-10 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.