textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Potential for severe storms tonight, but there is a high amount of uncertainty in how event might evolve. Any storms that develop would be capable of heavy rainfall, along with the potential for damaging winds.

* Clearing on Tuesday into Wednesday is expected to lead to very warm and muggy conditions. Heat indices in excess of 100 F are likely.

* Severe storms are expected Wednesday into Thursday as front drops southeast across the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The MCs moving through early this morning will continue to track east into a less favorable environment and should gradually weaken with time. This complex has become outflow dominant and is out racing its mid/upper level lift as we speak. That doesn't mean in the short term it wont pack a punch as it advances through the KC Metro area and across portions of central MO. As of now this line has had a history of producing 70 MPH gusts. Regardless of how much this system weakens, heavy rainfall is expected. With how much rain has already fallen over the last couple of days, additional heavy rain fall will likely lead to flash flooding. What adds further concern for flooding at this point is that there is active backbuilding and training as this MCV starts to curl up a bit.

Once this MCs has cleared the EAX forecast area our eye shift to another round of rain and storms further west in central and western KS. Guidance is a bit split on whether or not these storms hold together or even track through eastern KS/northern MO. The HRRR looks to be the most aggressive with this second round of rain/storms. It has a line of storms developing and following almost the exact same path as the current MCs. Hard to know if the environment is worked over enough to keep these storms subsevere/benign or not. A weak shortwave and the presence of the LLJ would be the too things to keep this second line going and give it some more power. If this line makes it to EAX then it should just be a weaker version of what we are already seeing. Can't rule out some stronger winds and maybe even some QLSC activity. Timing of this is going to be generally from 7 AM through roughly noon. The only other meso model in favor of this is the RRFS, almost every other one is favoring little to nothing happening. Given how some of the meso models are handling convection now, we're looking at a solid 30% chance for this to occur.

For the rest of the day, how much temperatures rise will depend on how quickly skies clear. WAA will still play a big roll in the rising temperatures, especially with the breeze almost 30 MPH winds that are expected. Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s and potentially lower 90s F. With dew points well into the 70s, heat indices are expected to warm into the upper 90s to lower 100 F. The faster skies clear the hotter the temperatures and heat indicies will be. There is a Heat Advisory in effect today for all of eastern KS and northern MO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Hot, humid and sticky conditions are expected to continue into Wednesday across the region. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to low 90s again with dewpoints in the vicinity of mid to upper 70s. This will again give us chances for heat indicies near 100 degrees. Additional heat headlines may be needed. Outside of the heat, there is a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms along a passing cold front. The timing with guidance has come into a bit more alignment with storms expected to move through Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. With how primed the environment is expected to be out ahead of this front, its likely all hazards will be on the table. By far the better shear, CAPE and forecast soundings look to be to the north of EAX. Regardless the entire CWA is in a slight risk (2 out of 5) from SPC.

Behind the cold front, temperatures look to be slightly cooler in the lower to upper 80s with dewpoints expected to be in the low to mid 70s. So... still hot and sticky but slightly less uncomfortable (results may vary). Timing that this storms exit late Wednesday into Thursday morning will have a big role to play here. This very convection will also play a role in the storm chances Thursday. Right now its very conditional. If clouds stick around the environment could be more stable then if things clear out by mid morning. Will have to play this by ear, but with a passing shortwave trough, good moisture and the conditional potential for good shear and instability this will be a time to keep an eye on. Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night looks to be the general timing here. Take that with a grain of salt as some models struggle to get anything going in MO.

The next potential chances for storms is Saturday into Saturday night, as shortwave drops into the Northern Plains. At the sfc there looks to be a few frontal boundaries in the area which will impact storm mode and storm strength greatly. As can be expected, guidance is all over the place here, so its too soon to draw any conclusions on timing or severity. One bright side is temperatures and dewpoints look to cool off for the rest of the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR to IFR conditions are expected through the period. The MVFR to IFR conditions are expected with any of the thunderstorms currently moving through this morning (mostly for IXD and south). Otherwise largely VFR conditions through the rest of the period. Clouds will scatter out late morning into the afternoon leading to mostly clear skies.

West to southwest winds are expected with this next round of rain this morning and may linger for a couple hours this morning before turning to southerly by mid to late morning. Southerly wind are expected to become breezy this afternoon. Breezy south to south-southwest winds remain through the rest of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MOZ028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. Heat Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.