textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rainfall resulting in flash flooding is possible early this morning and Sunday afternoon. A Flood Watch is in effect.

- Severe storms (mainly strong winds) possible early this morning.

- Additional severe thunderstorm redevelopment is possible Sunday afternoon from Kansas City south and southeast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Widespread showers and storms have moved from southeastern NE and eastern KS into northwestern MO this evening. How this convection evolves through the morning is the primary concern of this forecast cycle. A well-estabilished MCS in south central KS has pivoted from a southeast motion to an eastward propagation with the development of an MCV on the northern edge. As the LLJ has ramped up over the last couple of hours, a distinct bowing segment has formed. The current forecast track would have the center of this bow moving either just south of the CWA or through southern Linn (KS) and Bates Counties meaning that severe weather, particularly severe winds, is possible across eastern KS and far west-central MO, including the KC Metro. However, given the timing of this system (well after midnight), the expectation is for a weakening trend as it advances eastward, so some uncertainty remains in the true severe weather potential across the southern portion of the CWA. However, given that there is the potential, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the KC Metro and areas south through 6 AM CDT.

A more concerning trend that has developed over the past few hours is the potential for training storms along the I-70 corridor leading to flash flooding. Storms across northern KS and northern MO have been slowly shifting south and have begun to orient themselves in a west-to-east manner along the I-70 corridor in central KS resulting in prolonged periods of heavy precipitation (rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour). This looks poised to continue into eastern KS and western MO, which could result in 2-4 inches of rain in just a couple of hours across northern MO. Current 3-hr flash flood guidance is ~1.5-2 inches, so this is quite concerning. A Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM CDT for all of western MO and eastern KS.

This complex of showers and storms is expected to continue through the morning and exit the area to the east by early afternoon. A remnant outflow boundary/modified warm front will be draped across central MO. This boundary will be focus for renewed convection this afternoon (development around 1-2 PM CDT) before a cold front sweeps through the area with the best chances coming along and south of I-70. Elevated PWATs (in excess of 2") will allow for effective rainfall rates and another chance for flash flooding. Afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg paired with deep layer shear on the order of 40-45 kts will also allow for a severe weather threat. The primary threats are wind and hail, but given the presence of a boundary in the area, certainly cannot rule out a tornado or two. North of the boundary, there is a threat for elevated storms, which creates the potential for hail and perhaps a marginally severe wind gust. This thinking aligns with the SPC as the southern portion of the area is in a Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk and areas north of I-70 are outlined in a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk.

Moving past Sunday, a lull in active weather looks to be on the way. High pressure builds into the area on Monday with upper- level zonal flow. Temperatures will be cooler after the cold frontal passage Sunday afternoon/evening with highs in the mid- to-upper 70s. A gradual warming trend is expected through the first half of the week with temperatures climbing into the low- to-mid 80s. Precipitation chances remain minimal through the majority of the week before the next chance (20-40%) moves in on Friday with a mid-level shortwave, however, a good amount of uncertainty remain that far out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and storms are expected to arrive at the terminals over the first couple hours of the TAF period. KSTJ will likely have storms ongoing at 06Z with storms spreading southward over the next couple of hours. These storms will be accompanied by lowered visibilities and MVFR CIGs. MVFR conditions should persist through the morning with low-end probabilities for IFR CIGs in the late morning. Showers and storms will come to an end through the morning, however, MVFR CIGs should stick around into the afternoon before scattering out. MVFR CIGs may return late this evening, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Winds will begin the period as easterly before shifting to southerly and southwesterly through the morning. Gusts of 20-25 kts are possible through the morning. Winds will flip to northerly this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.