textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusts up to 30-35 mph through the remainder of the afternoon

- Slight cooldown tomorrow, before warming well above normal early next week

- Chances of precipitation (30-40%) begin Tuesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

With the earlier passage of the cold front, temperatures have topped off around the low to mid 50s with blustery winds out of the north/northwest, gusting up to 30-35 mph. As evening approaches, winds will die down and remaining cumulus will clear with the approach of a pronounced low level ridge overnight. Tomorrow, temperatures will be slightly cooler, with some stronger southerly winds still possible as the result of a tightened pressure gradient between an area of high pressure over the lower Great Lakes and low pressure over the Dakotas. However, a threat of strong wind gusts will be minimized due to less pronounced diurnal mixing, with a deck of cirrus gradually building overhead through the day.

Starting Sunday, temperatures will begin to warm with the further establishment of an upper level ridge from the west and greater warm air advection aloft. Monday will see the potential for record breaking highs at some sites across the CWA, with forecast highs skirting the low 70s towards southwestern Missouri. Current 25th-75th percentile values for max temperatures in Kansas City range from 66-70 degrees Fahrenheit, and the current record for Kansas City was set in 1943 at 72 degrees Fahrenheit, so will have to keep an eye out for any notable highs that day!

After Monday, our period of dry weather ends with a pattern of precipitation beginning Tuesday morning. Deterministic models have begun to converge on a line of light rainfall with a passing shortwave disturbance to the south/southeast of our CWA, with ensemble guidance like the LREF hovering around a 15-30% chance for precipitation becoming closer to 40% towards central Missouri. There is still some uncertainty with the placement and timing of the greatest precipitation with this passing disturbance, as different ensemble members within the LREF have varying start/end times for measurable precipitation or do not simulate precipitation at all. However, as it stands in the forecast, a 30-40% chance of precipitation exists beginning Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. As the forecast grows closer, more precise details and better model agreement will make the forecast clearer. By Wednesday, temperatures will fall back to the mid 40s and low 50s for the remainder for the week. Approaching the end of the forecast period, another chance (20-30%) of precipitation exists.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Winds remain light through the overnight then shift through east to SE after sunrise and accelerate through the morning. Some isolated gusts are possible during the afternoon. Winds dissipate after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.