textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather remains through the week, with highs generally in the 80s.

- Chance (30-40%) for strong/severe thunderstorms tomorrow evening and overnight. Primary hazards include damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall, and lightning.

- Temperatures warming by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Rain from the early morning has gradually progressed east and exited the forecast area, leaving behind ample sunshine and warming temperatures under clear skies. This has allowed temperatures to climb into the 80s through the afternoon, with only those areas that remain under dense cloud cover struggling to breach the low/mid 70s. As high pressure continues sliding off towards the east, winds remain out of the east/southeast, with occasional gusts up to 20 kts as daytime heating promotes mixing in the low-levels. Pleasant weather will persist through the overnight hours, where temperatures will drop to the 60s as winds grow light.

Shortwave disturbances are forecast to continue propagating along the periphery of the upper-level ridge into tomorrow, continuing opportunities for precipitation into late tomorrow. At present, CAMs have been less enthusiastic about the potential for robust activity reaching eastern Kansas/western Missouri. Instead, CAMs have consistently simulated a bulk of activity further west, with storm complexes simulated developing off of these disturbances in an environment with adequate shear ~30-35 kts and MLCAPE ~2500-3000 J/kg coupled with steep low/mid-level lapse rates. If activity does reach eastern Kansas and western Missouri, it appears to be more disorganized and weaker in nature. However, with adequate MLCAPE and mid-level lapse rates ~7 degC/km, strong/severe elevated thunderstorms with robust updrafts are not out of the question in the evening/overnight. With this activity, the primary hazards would be damaging winds/large hail, focused across northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas closer to the shortwave disturbance.

The forecast looks to dry out after this activity going into Wednesday, with temperatures remaining seasonable under retreating cloud cover and low relative humidity. The upper-level trough currently situated over the northern Plains is forecast to dig towards the Great Lakes through midweek, draping a cold front across the forecast area and bringing maximum temperatures down by a few degrees by Thursday. There is an additional opportunity for precipitation to develop along the leading edge of the front, but guidance favors later development along the front during the day Thursday, which would place it further east and south of the forecast area. The upper-level ridge situated over the southwestern CONUS will push further into the central CONUS, and will place the forecast area beyond the periphery of the upper- level ridge, keeping weather dry through the weekend. However, greater model divergence at this time leaves some uncertainty on when precipitation will be reintroduced to the forecast with the potential deamplification of the upper-level ridge over the central CONUS. Winds shifting southerly by the end of the forecast period with surface high pressure situated over the eastern CONUS will lead to increasing temperatures into the low/mid 90s.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.