textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold front moves across the region today leading to widespread rainfall.

* Low pressure is expected to develop in central - southern Missouri tonight into Wednesday morning. This will lead to strong gusty winds to near 40-45 mph developing across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. Winds are expected to gradually decrease Wednesday afternoon.

* Frost likely across the region Thursday- Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Cold front associated with a parent low pressure system in northeast Saskatchewan is expected to move across the region today. As of 08Z, the surface front was located from Yankton, SD to Russell KS, with fairly widespread showers along and behind the front. Expect the showers to become more numerous as system builds east into increasingly moist airmass. Airmass ahead of the front is unseasonably moist with precipitable water values around 1 inch (80- 90th percentile for this time of year. The abundant moisture has lead to the development of stratus, which could create patchy drizzle immediately ahead of the cold front. As the front comes through, low level lapse rates steepen enough to support the production of rain. Winds increase behind the front, but increase in earnest late this afternoon as cold air advection increases just above the surface. BUFKIT soundings suggest winds of ~35 knots are at the top of the mixed layer along the Kansas/Missouri border late this afternoon as stronger cold air advection kicks in. Shower activity, which is still expected to be occurring, may be enough to enhance wind gusts potentially leading to near wind advisory criteria mainly far eastern Kansas; however, pressure rises at this point are fairly meager (0.5-1 mb/3 hrs) so unless we have deeper mixing than anticipated or the showers can effectively draw stronger momentum down from aloft, expect wind gusts to largely remain below wind advisory criteria. Strongest cold air advection looks to largely be focused in the 22Z Tuesday- 15Z Wednesday time frame.

This is also the same time frame a 150 knot upper level jet streak on the west side of the upper level trough leads to rapid cyclogenesis across central into southern Missouri. As this newly developed low pressure system builds east on Wednesday, rain and wind should gradually decrease from northwest to southeast.

The cooler drier airmass will lead to clearing skies across the region, but temperatures Thursday - Sunday morning are expected to be supportive of frost. LREF ensemble even suggests ~10 percent chance of subfreezing conditions along and north of highway 36 on Sunday morning.

Trough deepening across western Canada flattens a ridge developing across the western US pushing the mild air east, potentially leading to a late weekend - early the following week warm up.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025

Areas of drizzle will transition to rain as cold front moves from west to east. Ceilings are expected to remain IFR or less through much of the day, but some marginal improvement is expected after 21Z as strong north-northwest winds develop. Precipitation is expected to gradually come to an end from NW to SE, mainly after 12Z Wednesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.