textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Record high temperatures expected today. The daily maximum for the Kansas City area will easily be broken. The warmest March temperature for KC is also in play.

- Southwesterly wind gusts of 40+ mph are expected today ahead of strong cold front. Then, winds become northerly/northeasterly behind the front with additional wind gusts to 40 mph possible through the late evening and overnight hour. This will also lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the area today.

- A strong cold front will move through the area this evening, with showers and storms developing along and behind the front. A strong storm with marginal hail and wind gusts can't be ruled out.

- From the furnace on Thursday, to the freezer on Saturday morning. Low temperatures bottom out in the 20s to low 30s. Folks with agricultural/horticultural interest will need to protect sensitive vegetation that has emerged early this spring.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Daily record high temperatures will be smashed today for MCI and STJ. Compressional warming ahead of a cold front will result in temperatures surging into the lower to middle 90s for both sites. The all-time warmest March high is also at risk with this heat for the Kansas City area. Deep mixing is expected to occur ahead of the front, with winds at the top of the mixed-layer near 40kts. Given this, we should winds and particularly gusts increase quickly this morning, between 14Z and 15Z. Wind gusts around 40 to possibly 45 mph look possible ahead of the front. After the front moves through, winds shift to north and northeast. While mixing behind the front won't be as deep, winds at the top of the mixed-layer look similar and thus we should see wind gusts around 40 to possibly 45 mph this evening/overnight behind the front. The strongest winds should diminish in the 03Z to 06Z time frame as the core of winds aloft shift to the southwest into KS western OK. All of this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions today. Though the combination of winds and low humidity values don't sync up to really lead to critical fire weather conditions, burning is strongly discouraged. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are possible again Friday due to the extremely dry air mass settling into the area. If winds trend stronger Friday afternoon, Red Flag conditions may be met.

The threat of strong storms with this frontal passage can't be ruled out entirely, especially along and just behind the front, where there may be enough instability to lead to stronger updrafts with a marginal hail and wind threat. Otherwise, it looks like the bulk of precipitation continues to be well behind the front, with any instability being very elevated and weakening with time as colder and drier air build southward. Given we'll already be seeing wind gusts of 40+ mph, some additional downward momentum from a thunderstorm downdraft may support a window of some severe wind gusts. But the overall severe threat looks low given the anticipated timing of convection being post-frontal and the resulting lack of instability for storms to work with.

Much colder and drier air moves in behind this cold front moving through today. High temperatures drop 30-40 degrees for Friday, though we just trend closer to normal conditions. And with the surface high moving over the area near/just before sunrise, we should see lows dip into the 20s and low 30s across the area. It's still early in the spring, but anyone with sensitive vegetation that has already emerged will need to take precautions to prevent damage from occurring.

Temperatures warm back into the 80s next week as broad ridging reestablishes itself across the the central and western CONUS. We will see steady southerly to southwesterly low-level flow, with the fetch coming from the Gulf. This will allow for better moisture to return to the area and may also lead to better chances for precipitation for mainly the middle part of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail for most of the TAF period, but not without some concerns. Winds quickly increase after 12z, becoming quite gusty out of the SW with potential gusts into the lower 30s kts. Strongest guests expected around the trio of KC Metro sites, KIXD/KMKC/KMCI. A cold front moving through around 23Z - 01z, will quickly shift winds out of the NW and another round of strong wind gusts. NW wind gusts have the potential to gust into the mid 30s and occasionally into the upper 30s if not touching 40 kts based on various model soundings this evening. Additionally with the frontal passage, chances for showers/thunderstorms will be present. Best chances remain either east or southeast of the sites, so have opted for PROB30 around the KC Metro sites and no mentions at KSTJ. MVFR ceilings then expected to move in very late in the TAF period or just after.

CLIMATE

Issued at 258 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 26: KMCI: 85/1991 KSTJ: 89/1991

March 30: KMCI: 82/1986 KSTJ: 86/1968

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.