textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light to moderate snowfall gradually end west to east this evening. - Widespread final amounts generally 1"-4" remain on track - Pockets of >4" roughly between US-36 and I-70

* Below normal temperatures continue throughout the week, especially by Thursday as a (brief) reinforcing cold blast moves through. - Thurs AM lows below zero possible over N Missouri

* Limited or transient opportunities for any measurable precipitation (rain, snow, or otherwise) over the next 5-7+ days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

As the mid-shift noted, Happy Meteorological Winter! It certainly greeted the area as such...

The well advertised/forecast mid-upper level PV anomaly/wave moved out into the Plains today and allowed a fairly expansive area of light to moderate snow. The parent wave is depicted nicely on GOES WV imagery, centered back over the TX Panhandle and angle northeastward from there. Generally only minor deviations from previous forecasts were seen through the day. Most notably, onset was an hr or two earlier originally advertised, yielding a messy morning commute as snow began accumulating throughout the KC Metro and eastern KS/western MO in general. Much of that may have been attributed to jet level support that was not well modeled previously. Additionally, FGEN forcing around 700mb was notably more modest to transient, helping yield the more widespread 2"-4" forecast area. As heavier bands did move into/through the area, conditions quickly degraded, as often noted by prolonged periods of less then 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibilities noted by various ASOS/AWOS sites. This too in an environment with effectively no wind, just falling snow. It was also noteworthy with 18z observations that measured SLRs were coming in closer to 10:1, likely attributed to a combination of lack of a deep DGZ and some fracturing in snow generation levels where stronger winds/turbulence resided. So by early-mid afternoon, widespread reports of 2" to 3.5" across the KC metro and amounts to 2.5" or so in central Missouri from around I-70 northward to north of US-36. For the remainder of the afternoon, radar depicts the back end of snowfall currently angled SW to NE from near Falls City, NE down through Manhattan, KS and on ward NE and SW from each respective city. Timing this out, suggests an end time around 6-7pm for the KC Metro and continuing eastward into the evening. Continue to use caution when traveling across the region, it does not take much to cause issues, as seen via KDOT and MODOT travel maps and accident reports.

As this system exits, the area will find itself largely on the cool side of zonal to NW flow. Currently synoptic guidance depicts little opportunity for significant surface features (highs/lows) or favorable positioning to allow for a significant warm up. In fact, on the contrary there is a good signal for a brief burst of colder conditions by Thursday as a surface high drops down and introduces a reinforcing Arctic airmass. This may drop Thursday AM lows into below zero territory for parts of northern Missouri. Fortunately, that depiction is short lived with some moderation in temperatures quickly afterwards. Either way, expect temperatures to generally remain below normal for this time of the year throughout the bulk or all of the going 7 day forecast. Predominantly in the 20s/30s for highs and 10s/20s for lows. For reference, normal highs are around the mid 40s and lows the mid 20s.

Precipitation wise, there is little notable opportunity for appreciable precipitation after today. While the pattern does lend itself toward being on the more active side for this time of the year (NW flow...), synoptic guidance suggests only transient weaker waves moving through the flow and mostly dry frontal passage opportunities. This is reinforced by ensemble guidance with only a smattering of light QPF depicted among individual members at various times through the forecast. Suffice it to say, there may be some light rain/snow opportunities over the next 7+ days, but do not look to be of any significance. Certainly nothing to the tune of Saturday or today. The "best" opportunity may be with the cold frontal passage Wednesday night and then possibly Saturday night into Sunday depending on the path of a depicted compact shortwave. Tis the season...

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 519 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Will need to monitor for fog tonight as the MVFR stratus shifts to the east. Fog is possible on the western flanks of that stratus. HREF shows low probabilities of this and some newer guidance suggest it's possible as well. Otherwise, low MVFR ceilings will prevail through the first quarter of the forecast with ceilings trending upward after midnight. VFR conditions become more likely tomorrow morning. Light winds through the forecast but will trend to the southwest and southeast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043-053. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-038>040-044>046-054. KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025- 057-060-102>105.