textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon, consequently, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for east central Kansas into Central Missouri. Elevated fire weather concern are expected elsewhere.

- Cooler temperatures arrive this evening behind a cold front, with near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into Monday.

- Low end chances (20% to 30%) for some light snow overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Little to no accumulation expected at this time.

- Warmer temperatures are likely to return by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

As of 06Z Thursday, a shortwave over the Texas/Oklahoma panhandle is expected to shift northeast this morning. This shortwave will help push a surface low off the leeside of the Rockies further eastward into the CWA. Around 12Z, the surface low's attendant dryline/Polar cold front will begin pushing through eastern KS/western MO. Along this boundary, we could see some rain showers develop. Near surface environment remains very dry, but steep lapse rates from 800-450 mb could lead to some weak conditional instability as mid-level moisture increases. If there is ample mid level moisture, could see a few showers develop towards sunrise along and south of the I-70 corridor racing northeast in the rapid mid level flow. Any precipitation that develops would struggle to reach the surface with very dry air in the sub-cloud layer (7-8K feet agl).

Surface flow will become increasingly westerly/northwesterly over the course of the day as the surface low gradually progresses across northern MO. Sustained winds between 10-15 kts are expected by early afternoon, with gusts up to 25-30 kts possible in our southernmost counties. Following the dryline, relative humidities will fall to <25% across southern and eastern portions of the CWA. Hence, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 12PM to 8PM Thursday, stretching from Linn County, KS up to Randolph County, MO further northeast. Cass County, MO remains the only county in the KC Metro to be included in this Red Flag Warning.

A second shortwave is expected to move across KS this afternoon and into northern Missouri early in the evening. Wrap around moisture may interact with this wave and the left exit region of the 150 kt+ jet streak that is building into the area. This interaction may produce rain showers along the MO/IA border. Rain may transition to snow as the near surface layer cools behind the cold front pivoting through the region; however, any snow accumulations would remain light with generally a few tenths of an inch or less across northern Missouri. HREF probabilities are less than 10 percent for an inch or more of accumulation. Widespread CAA behind the cold frontal passage will lead to cooler temperatures persisting through the course of the weekend.

Friday, the upper level shortwave will shift east into the Great Lakes and surface high pressure will build into the area from the northern Plains. This will provide weak mixing which will keep conditions seasonably cool in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Friday night into Saturday another upper level shortwave will move through the area. Conditions will be very dry however, there may be enough forcing to produce a light rain/snow mix however, little to no accumulation is expected. Another surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area late Saturday which will continue to hold temperatures on the cool side with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Surface high pressure will then continue to dominate the area through Monday keeping temperatures below normal with highs in the low 30s to low 40s each day with lows in the teen to lower 20s. A warming trend will begin in earnest on Tuesday as upper level ridging building over the Rockies will provide height rises locally in addition, surface high pressure will slide east of the area and WAA will get underway. This will dive highs back into the 50s to near 60. Wednesday additional height rises will aid in temperatures warming into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conds are expected to begin the TAF pd with bkn mid-lvl clouds thru 16Z. Btn 16Z-00Z...incr high clouds are fcst however, bkn 00Z-01Z a ovc deck btn 3-5kft is fcst for MCI/MKC/IXD with MVFR cig expected at STJ with the chc for a few lgt VCSH. By 07Z-09Z...status is fcst to sct out with ovc high clouds abv. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of E/NE btn 10-15kts (with gusts to 20kts at STJ). Btn 16Z-19Z winds will veer from the E to the WNW/NW and incr aft 19Z to 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Winds will wkn a bit late in the pd dmshg to 10-15kts with gusts to around 20kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ060.