textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy Fog Tonight and Friday Morning

- Light Wintry Mix Possible Northwestern and Northern Missouri Friday Evening

- Seasonable Temperatures This Weekend, Above Normal Next Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Upper-level ridge axis from the southern Plains into Colorado continue to provide a northwesterly flow regime for the middle and upper portions of the troposphere this afternoon. Surface anticyclone continues to push southward. Moisture has been trapped in a stronger inversion layer around 900mb through most of the afternoon, which has allowed the stratiform cloud cover to linger. As of 21z, satellite trends showed some subsidence mixing out the southern end of this cloud cover. We may see some breaks in cloud cover through the early part of the evening. However after sunset, expecting more stratiform cloud cover. Have increased sky cover for this evening leaning more into a RAP solution, as this was the solution this morning that was handling it best. Other solutions cleared out conditions much faster than what was actually being observed. There are two H5 short-wave perturbations with notable vort maxima over the Intermountain West and are moving toward the southeast. This has allowed a surface cyclone to develop and will push toward the southern Plains. The strongest forcing will miss most of the area, but this will allow a warm frontal boundary to stall across portions of central Kansas. In the lower Missouri River Valley , surface flow will remain east-northeast through most of the evening. This may favor the development of patchy fog late tonight through early Friday morning, especially for areas south of Hwy. 36. Depending on where the current stratus clears out this evening, efficient cooling at the surface could foster the development of this fog. After sunset, even areas that remain in the 900mb stratus deck could also see fog, as any type of mixing ends and may allow the boundary layer to re-saturate. At this time, uncertain as to how dense fog may become by early Friday morning.

Friday evening, stronger dAVA will continue in the northern Plains and upper Midwest that will reinforce the development of a surface anticyclone in the Upper Midwest. The stalled boundary over central or eastern Kansas will be pushed southward as a cold front, with another thermal gradient dropping southward. The stronger dAVA and surface anticyclone will be northeast of the forecast area. Another H5 perturbation, though not as strong as the vort maxima moving into the Gulf region, will move across eastern Nebraska / western Iowa into northern Missouri. The past few days, synoptic scale models depicted two dry layers that kept all of our forecast area dry, with any light wintry mixes in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. 12z CAMs this morning have been more favorable for a saturated boundary layer, or some kind of favorable seeder-feeder mechanism to produce a light wintry mix across northwestern and northern Missouri Friday evening. There will be dry air to contend with, but the current status clouds from today is the first indication that there may be more moisture to work with then what the coarser resolution model solutions had been advertising over the past couple of days as this short-wave disturbances ripples through the northwesterly flow. HREF mean QPF is very low for this area. A light wintry mix has been added to the forecast for Friday evening in northwest and northern Missouri, but currently no accumulations are in the forecast. There are a few models that are hinting at freezing drizzle potential due to a lack of ice introduction. However, most surface temperatures are around 34-35F when this occurs, and by the time the final CAA push occurs that would lower surface temperatures below freezing, there is some ice introduction that would allow for dendrites. Current expectation would be for any freezing drizzle to occur only on elevated surfaces that cool rapidly, and therefore may not present travel impacts with the current expected temperatures and pavement temperatures. This wave should exit by early Saturday morning.

For the end of the weekend and most of the next work week, these short-wave disturbances move away from the area. Troughing over the eastern Pacific allows a mid-level ridge axis to amplify across the Central CONUS, which will promote strong WAA for the start of the next work week pushing temperatures well above normal relative to the first of January. NBM members are suggesting potential for lower 60s along and south of Interstate 70, with mid 50s toward the Iowa state line. Little in the way of forcing expected, which will keep conditions dry. There is an increasing signal for stronger trough to move through the end of the next work week, introducing rainfall potential.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Sub IFR ceilings with fog are expected to build southwest across the region tonight in light northeast wind in the near surface layer. Conditions will be very slow to improve on Friday with low sun angle, weak flow, and mid level disturbance building into the area.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.