textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue into early next week.

- Chances (60-75%) for shower and storms continue to increase through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Mid-level ridging is in place over the central CONUS with a trough digging into the western CONUS. Hurricane Isaias has made landfall along the Gulf Coast and will be absorbed into the pattern as a shortwave trough over the next couple of days. While the remnants of Isaias will stay to the east of the area, the absorption into the pattern will keep the mid-level ridging centered over the lower Missouri River Valley over the next several days. At the surface, a low pressure system is moving east along the Canadian border. The pressure fields surrounding the low have induced southerly flow across much of the Plains. This southerly flow, in conjunction with the upper-level ridge, will continue to support well above normal temperatures for early-to-mid October by 15-20 degrees. Highs will largely be in the mid-to-upper 80s today through Monday with areas along and south of I-70 potentially pushing above 90F. This forecast brings record high temperatures into play on Sunday and Monday at KMCI (89F in 1962 and 91F in 1899 respectively) and KSTJ (89F in 1989 and 2024 and 92F in 1975 respectively).

As has been well advertised in previous forecast cycles, a good deal of uncertainty enters the forecast on Tuesday regarding precipitation and temperatures. Model guidance continues to be split on how quickly moisture associated with the remnants of Hurricane Simon reaches the Central Plains. Faster solutions (GFS and GEFS) present lower high temperatures and higher chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon, while slower solutions (ECMWF and ENS) favor a continuation of well above normal highs and a dry forecast. LREF quartile spreads have narrowed slightly from this time yesterday and are now on the order of 10 degrees between the 25th and 75th percentiles (76F and 87F respectively in the KC Metro).

Regardless of faster or slower solution, precipitation chances increase on Wednesday to 60-75%. This is due to a trough over the western CONUS ejecting eastward and inciting lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO. A warm front will lift north on Wednesday bringing a source of lift to the area in conjunction with upper-level support from the shortwave. How far north the warm front makes it on Wednesday will be dictated by how far south the upper-level tough digs before ejecting eastward, which will drive the location of lee cyclogenesis. Areas south of the warm front will see 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE build by Wednesday afternoon with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear creating a classic high shear, low CAPE setup for potential strong to severe storms Wednesday evening/night. Though we will have to wait a couple more hours for the next SPC outlook (around 09Z), there is currently a Day 6 Slight (Level 2 of 5) Risk across the southern portion of the CWA (including the KC Metro) for Wednesday.

As the trough and low pressure system advance east, a cold front will push through the area on Thursday, which should bring Fall temperatures back into the forecast by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the TAF period. SSW winds should become gusty through the morning hours. The highest gusts are expected to be across northwestern MO and into NE and KS. Gusts should diminish around sunset with winds turning more SSE overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.