textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably warm and dry conditions persist into next week.

- Well-above normal temperatures (15-30 degrees F) are possible next week. Increasing confidence in record-breaking temperatures around Christmas Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

A quiet, seasonably warm day is ongoing as we have reached normal high temperatures since 9 AM this morning. Highs today will range in the low 40s (for areas near the MO/IA border) to the low 50s (for areas near central MO). Zonal flow aloft remains over the area with a closed low making its way through Ontario. A few mid to upper level shortwaves on the southern periphery, collocated with a ribbon of moisture, has resulted in partly cloudy skies which is anticipated to linger through the day. At the surface, a dry, weak cold front, extending from a low over Ontario, has pushed through the area reorienting our winds out of the north. A progressive surface high will descend through MN towards IL, ushering a brief shot of cold temperatures for Sunday morning. Early morning lows are expected to range in the 20s across the area, making for a chilly start to Sunday. As the high quickly slides to the northeast/east by the late morning/early afternoon, southerly windflow will return across the area. This, coupled with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to rebound nicely with highs tomorrow ranging in the low 40s to low 50s.

As we get into Monday, a stout, broad upper ridge will continue its track to the east over the Great Plains Region. This is when we can expect our warming trend to begin with highs for Monday ranging from the low 50s to low 60s. This upper ridge will continue its eastward track allowing temperatures to warm into mid-next week. The warmest days for next week are anticipated to be Wednesday and Thursday (Christmas and the day before) as a dynamic closed low off the Pacific Coast pushes generous amounts of warm air into the upper ridge causing it to amplify. Real-time GFS Maps standardized anomalies suggest H500 geopotential heights reach 2-3 standard deviations above normal relative to mid-December. Ensemble guidance has trended a few degrees warmer bringing the highs around the mid 60s farther north, north of I-70. For Thursday, the LREF gives roughly a 50% chance for areas south of a line from St. Joseph to Kirksville to reach highs greater than 65 degrees F. That being said, highs across the area Wednesday and Thursday are anticipated to range from the 60s to low 70s. We will be closely monitoring records as highs are forecast to be 20-30 degrees above seasonal averages. For Friday, a dry cold front will move through the area lowering temperatures heading into the weekend (upper 40s to low 60s). Due to the influence of the ridge, precip chances remain non- existent for all of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1118 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Dry and VFR conditions are expected through the end of the period. North to northeasterly winds around 10 knots early in the period will turn light and veer out of the southeast by mid morning Sunday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.