textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional showers and thunderstorms today with heaviest rainfall south of I-70.

- Lighter shower activity continues tonight.

- Warmer conditions return to the region, but periodic disturbances will lead to additional scattered chances of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Severe weather threat quickly decreased this morning as outflow boundary and cold front built south of I-70. Short waves wrapping cyclonically around the upper level trough centered over Ontario will lead to periodic chances of showers across the region over the next few days. Expect rain showers to become more numerous this morning towards day break as subtle shortwave across north central KS pushes east providing lift. Elevated instability remains along and south of I-70 through much of the day today with steep lapse rates from 650-500 mb. This increased instability could lead to enhanced rainfall rates and a few lightning strikes, though should be relatively short lived. Could see rainfall amounts of 1-1.5" in spots south of I-70, but this remains below flash flood guidance so am not anticipating any hydrology issues. Rain should keep temperatures from rising much throughout the day. Areas across northern Missouri may see a slight temperature recovery today with low level dry air trying to feed into the region from the north, but with 850 hpa temperatures hovering near 2-3 C, will be a struggle to warm much beyond 60 F today.

Additional short waves wrapping into the area tonight will lead to additional showers, though precipitation efficiency will continue to decrease as low level dry air continues to build south.

With the drier air in the near surface layer, should see a better temperature recovery Wednesday after a cool start, though cloud cover and cool airmass lingering across the region will keep forecast high temperatures in the upper 50s.

More substantial warming is expected late week into the weekend, but periodic shortwaves wrapping around the trough remaining over the Hudson Bay will create additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected to prevail across the sites. Exceptions potentially within the next couple/few hours as pockets of heavier SHRA pass near or over the trio of KC Metro TAF sites. This would yield short-duration MVFR visibilities. Otherwise, ceilings broadly >7-8kft will continue through the period with winds eventually settling out of the northerly direction. Another chance at a few showers late in the overnight into morning, and have opted for a PROB30 in response to limited confidence in impacts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.