textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Brief warm up today into Wednesday, though temperatures remain below normal. Small snow chances return late week with the return of arctic air.

* Temperatures return closer to normal next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Presently, temperatures have risen closer to freezing with ample sunshine and high level clouds providing some "warming" through the afternoon. However, with gradual cloud clearing under a surface high pressure regime and cold air transport under north/northwesterly flow, temperatures will dip back into the single digits overnight. By tomorrow, temperatures will warm to closer-to-normal as winds shift out of the southwest and ample sunshine continues under clearer skies.

A developing shortwave off of the lee of the Rockies will dig southward through Thursday, presenting the potential for flurries with broad scale ascent ahead of the trough. The general moisture profile in this area of ascent remains dry enough that confidence in appreciable snowfall accumulation is low, but the potential for flurries still exists with some moisture ingest into the shortwave as it exits Thursday night. So, have elected to include mentions of flurries for the forecast on Thursday alongside the passage of this shortwave, with greater areal coverage by Thursday night. Building high pressure behind the exiting shortwave will turn winds back out of the north, and lower temperatures once again through the remainder of the week alongside cold air transport aloft. Overnight lows will continue to linger in the single digits, with the potential for lows to drop below zero through Friday night.

Our next potential for notable weather presents itself Sunday, with the passage of a dynamic trough through the day. Presently, the NBM loadout draws a chance of snow across north central Missouri, but QPF for the day remains low. Even the 90th percentile of the NBM only projects ~1 inch of snowfall over a period of 6 hours at noon on Sunday. With the forecast far enough in advance, will continue to monitor the potential for snowfall on this day and analyze snowfall trends in advance. After this potential, temperatures will warm early next week with a ridge building behind the retreating trough.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 502 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conds with bkn mid-lvl clouds are expected thru 05Z-06Z aft which oncl few-sct high clouds are fcst for the remainder of the TAF pd. Winds will be lgt and vrb thru 05Z-06Z aft which winds will become SW btn 3-7kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.