textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and more humid today.

- 10-20% chance for showers and storms late tonight into Wednesday morning and again on Wednesday afternoon.

- Hot and humid conditions are likely this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft continues as the CWA resides on the northeastern edge of the western upper ridge, with longwave troughing to the east northeast across New England and south of a shortwave trough moving across southern Manitoba into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a 1020 mb high is centered over the Chicagoland area, yielding light easterly winds across the CWA. Pleasant conditions abound across the area once again this morning, with temperatures as of 3 AM ranging form the mid 60s to upper 60s. After a couple days of cooler temperatures, afternoon highs today should rebound back into the upper 80s to even the lower 90s (mid 80s across NE Missouri), with moisture also recovering as dewpoints should increase considerably throughout the day today. By later this afternoon, strengthening northwesterly flow is expected across the Central Plains, while a front progresses southeastward across the Central High Plains, intercepting a moist and moderately unstable boundary later. This should help initiate convection across southwestern Nebraska by around 4 pm today, with this convection likely growing upscale into clusters or an MCS capable of producing severe winds as it moves to the southeast through the evening hours. However, CAMs have trended further west with the convective activity, and it now seems rather unlikely that severe storms could reach our CWA tonight. However, SPC for now has maintained a marginal risk across NW Kansas into far NW Missouri, and we will continue to monitor CAM trends. Convection may reignite overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning across central and east central Kansas, slowly drifting to the east southeast but likely dissipating before entering into our CWA. The aforementioned cold front that should help ignite storms today across the Central High Plains should move north to south through the region on Wednesday afternoon as the shortwave trough across the Upper Midwest makes its way eastward toward the Great Lakes. Convection may fire along the front by mid afternoon toward the Ozarks Plateau, and SPC has placed Butler to Moberly and points east into a marginal risk for severe storms.

Temperatures should be a bit cooler on Thursday afternoon behind the front, with highs in the mid 80s for most locations. Also, drier air will filter in behind the front, with dew points likely dropping into the lower 60s by mid Thursday afternoon. Temperatures may increase a couple degrees on Friday, but humidity should remain relatively comfortable. By this weekend, the upper ridge axis is progged to drift further east as an upper trough comes ashore across the Pacific Northwest (and will also flatten out the ridge). This should lead to increased mid level heights and warmer 850 temps, translating to surface high temperatures into the lower to mid 90s for Saturday and into the mid to perhaps even the upper 90s for Sunday. Moisture return will also increase dew points, and accordingly, heat indices, with heat index values approaching or even exceeding 100 F by Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Light winds out of the east this morning and afternoon will become light and variable by tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the period with increasing high level clouds moving in by later this morning. There will be a slight chance for showers/storms late tonight into early Wednesday morning, but for now confidence is too low to justify even a PROB30.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.