textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend across the region through Saturday.

- Gusty southwest winds today in the daylight hours.

- A few isolated showers/storms are possible along a cold front dropping through the region during the day on Friday. Outside chance of a strong storm capable of producing large hail late tomorrow afternoon across central Missouri.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Broad surface high pressure extending from Colorado into the Ohio River Valley is expected to shift south and east today blocking any Gulf moisture from returning to the region in the near term. As the surface ridge shifts southeast, near surface flow is expected to develop from the southwest increasing during peak heating today. With little in the way of moisture return today, relative humidity values are expected to fall to 25-35% north of the Missouri River this afternoon. With recent rainfall, ten hour fuel moisture is running in the 15-20 percent range- above criteria for fire weather headlines.

Shortwave over central Montana this morning is expected to build southeast and move across the region tonight into Friday morning. This will lead to increased cloud cover in the upper portions of the atmosphere, but limited amounts of moisture is expected below 10K feet in the atmosphere. The net result may be a few sprinkles overnight across northern into central Missouri as the wave passes through. With the increased cloud cover and warmer air building into the region, have warmed forecast lows for Friday morning.

Cold front is expected to drop through the region on Friday. Though very limited amounts of surface moisture is available, steep mid- level lapse rates in the 700-500 mb layer could lead to some elevated instability developing ahead of the front in the mid-late afternoon hours on Friday; however, mid and upper level cloud cover will reduce low level heating. With strong mid- level flow/shear, a late afternoon strong storm or two is possible across central Missouri before the threat shifts southeast towards the I-44 corridor.

Temperatures warm behind the front Friday night into Saturday leading to a mild Saturday across the region. A second cold front is expected to drop across the region Saturday night, though limited amounts of low level moisture will limit potential instability, and therefore, area is not even currently outlooked in day 3 general thunder.

Cooler conditions are expected on Sunday behind the cold front, but don't last for long as southerly winds develop ahead trough developing low in the Northern Plains on Monday and pushing east into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Additional precipitation is possible with the cold front associated with this system, though timing is a bit uncertain. It looks like we briefly cool down behind the front, before much warmer air builds into the region late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop after 15Z, and continue through 23Z. Could also see few-scattered cumulus develop across central Missouri, mainly east of the terminals. After 23Z/7th, the gusts will decrease, but upper level cloud cover will increase.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.