textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Breezy conditions today and tomorrow. Today wind gusts will range from 20-30 mph. Wednesday morning wind gusts will range from 40-50 mph. The strongest winds are anticipated for northern MO immediately behind the cold front Wednesday morning. A wind advisory is in effect for areas north of HWY-36.

* Increasing confidence in much cooler temperatures late this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Ongoing widespread near-freezing temperatures will linger through the morning hours. However, temperatures will rebound quite nicely to above-normal this afternoon. A mid to upper level trough, tracking to the southeast out of the northern Great Plains, will push a surface low (and associated fronts) through southern MN towards WI resulting in a strengthened pressure gradient. With mostly clear skies across the area and just enough diurnal mixing, a few winds gusts to 20-30 mph will be possible late this morning into the afternoon. This increased southwesterly windflow, out ahead of the cold front, will be the catalyst for our warm-up today above seasonal averages. Highs for today will range mostly in the 50s. Locations east of I-35 and north of I-70 may see highs in the 40s as cloud coverage (associated with a ribbon of moisture and a lead H700 shortwave) could impede the effects of daytime heating.

Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, the mid to upper level trough will make it into WI pushing the surface low and cold front through the area. As a result, our winds will reorient out of the northwest. As the pressure gradient strengthens with the low passing to our north/northeast, winds at H925 increase to near 50 kts. As the cold front passes and low-level lapse rates steepen immediately behind the cold front, surface wind gusts will rapidly accelerate to 40-50 mph. Confidence for the strongest winds remains in areas north of HWY-36. The HREF strongly agrees, giving areas north of a line from St. Joseph to Macon probabilities of 60%-100% of winds greater than 45 mph early Wednesday morning. A wind advisory has been issued for areas north of a line from Holt to Adair counties from 9Z-14Z. There is a chance that this advisory could be expanded if higher wind gusts are expected farther south. The strongest winds taper off late Wednesday morning as the gradient begins to relax. Concerning precipitation with this front, there are very low-end chances (below 10%) for a few, brief snow flurries given how close the saturated layer is to the dendritic growth zone. The best chance would be for areas near northeast MO. Confidence is not high enough at this time to increase PoPs as better moisture and forcing remain to our north. Therefore, the forecast remains dry for Wednesday morning for our area. Highs for Wednesday on the backside of the cold front range in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Some locations near west- central MO may reach the upper 40s.

For the second half of this week, a stout mid to upper level ridge shifts eastward over the western U.S. As we remain on the eastern periphery of the ridge, it seems to keep us mostly dry even with shortwaves, within the circulation of a robust closed low over Manitoba/Ontario, pushing through the area. The LREF hints at a chance for snow flurries on Thursday morning, however confidence in timing and location remains too low at this time add a mention to the forecast. At the surface, an anomalous high pressure (1 to 2 standard deviations above normal) descends into the Northern Great Plains this weekend possibly ushering in the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this year. Highs for this weekend range from the teens to just above freezing with lows just below zero to the upper teens. Early next week, heights rise with the eastward shift of the upper level ridge suggesting temperatures return closer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will begin to gust to 20-28 kts out of the south/southwest later this morning into the afternoon. Winds weaken this evening before a surface cold front reorients our winds out of the northwest/north. Wind gusts will increase to around 35-45 kts just behind the front towards the end of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ001>008- 011-015>017. KS...None.