textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant fall-like weather comes to an end as a gloomy weekend is expected.

- Some sprinkles to light showers possible across far MW MO this evening.

- Short dry period early next week, before another disturbance brings more rain into mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Our current synoptic pattern shows an upper ridge with respect to a 500mb high pressure system off of the Texas Gulf Coast. This is what has been responsible for higher temperatures off to the south, along with southerly flow bringing higher moisture to our west. At the surface, a high pressure system centered northeast of the Great Lakes has allowed for easterly flow to bring a more fall-like pattern across the area. Our dry, pleasant fall-like conditions will stick around until tonight, before a shortwave brings a wetter Friday and weekend. Far NW MO will get a small taste this evening as a passing shortwave brings some scattered sprinkles to showers during the evening.

Off the west coast, we have several synoptic features that will have a direct effect on our weather Friday, and into this weekend. An area of low pressure is present across parts of the Pacific Northwest, along with another low feature in the Baja California region. These two systems merge will create as shortwave to develop over the Rocky Mountain region tonight, and will progress into our area tomorrow. This will be our lifting mechanism responsible for a cloudy, cooler, and rainier conditions Friday through the weekend. Additionally, an ongoing temperature gradient is present across Missouri, with temperatures in the 60s to the north, and 80s to the south. This is being caused by several features, such as easterly flow bringing cooler air across the north, and the position of the ridge is expected to open up southerly warm air flow. The combined will bring enough lift for on and off shower activity beginning Thursday evening across far northwestern Missouri, and continue to progress eastward to the rest of the CWA by midday Friday. Highest coverage is expected along and north of Interstate 70 due to greater moisture content across eastern KS and northern. Eastward, more spares coverage of rain and storms are expected. Cloud cover and morning rainfall keeps temperatures lower as well as limit instability; therefore, reducing chances for seeing widespread thunderstorm activity. That said, there looks to be enough forcing to facilitate a few embedded thunderstorms. Main hazards would be localized heavy downpours, isolated minor flooding, and possibly some gusty winds. Rainy and gloomy conditions will persist throughout Friday night, Saturday, and into Sunday with rain looking to vacate by midday Sunday for most of the area. How quickly the precipitation departs will be dependent on how the ongoing blocking pattern builds or breaks down through the day. A current low off of the East Coast is expected to develop into a notable Nor'easter, and upper flow associated with it will influence how the ongoing ridge progresses. If the Nor'easter system and blocking pattern were to linger around longer, it potentially could keep our ridge to the south, keeping shower activity around longer on Sunday, and have a cooler Monday. If the Nor'easter and blocking pattern moves out/breaks down, the ridge would be able to push shower activity northward out of the area, and lead to higher temperatures Monday.

By the end of the weekend into early next week, another upper level disturbance arrives on shore the Pacific coast as the blocking pattern exits the eastern CONUS. Timing will be dependent on when exactly our ongoing patterns move out, but the next disturbance is expected to move in some time Monday night through Wednesday. The system would bring shower and storm activity, along with cooler and more fall-like conditions through the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Showers across eastern KS are expected to weaken as they work east this evening; however, as lift increases on 305-310K surfaces tomorrow expect showers to develop across the area. Showers appear to be most numerous across northern Missouri, but could also see showers farther south though MVFR ceilings should largely be contained to areas of more steadier rain. MVFR ceilings are expected to expand southward tomorrow night into Saturday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.