textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- An active weather pattern will prevail this week with multiple chances for showers and storms through the end of the week.

- Heavy rain and flooding are the most likely hazards, though strong to severe storms can't be ruled out late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Satellite imagery and surface observations show the cold front that moved through the area yesterday has stalled across Oklahoma and Arkansas. Persistent easterly surface-low-level flow is helping to keep a low stratus deck over the region and a lack of deeper forcing has helped to erode the light precipitation that was present overnight and this morning. However, tonight, another wave will begin to move east through the Rockies, allowing low to mid-level flow to become southerly. This will help advect deeper moisture back northward and as deeper ascent develops, notable from ~285K through 305K, widespread rain will develop, with the focus mainly over the southeastern half to two-thirds of the forecast area. During the day Tuesday, the warm front lifts northward to be in the vicinity of the US54 to US50 corridor. Just how far north the warm front lifts before stalling will determine how much instability may develop. Further north, and areas south of Highway 50 are able to build more instability and would have a greater potential for strong storms. A more southerly stall of the front and we'll see weaker instability, with less of chance for strong storms. Forecast soundings across the southern portions of the forecast area show that any instability will be elevated and inhibition may not erode enough until the evening hours. Given the elevated nature of the storms, hail would be the main concern with any storms that develop Tuesday evening/overnight.

The shortwave responsible for this round of precipitation will slowly track to the east through the day Wednesday and into Thursday. Rainfall looks more widespread Wednesday-Wednesday night as the surface boundary will be in the vicinity of our southeastern zones. This front will be the focus of precipitation and as a result, the best precipitation chances will be across the southeastern half of the forecast area, from roughly Butler, MO to Moberly, MO. Thursday, with the shortwave now east of the area, most areas should remain dry.

Focus then shifts to Friday, where we currently have a Slight Risk for severe storms from the SPC. A deep upper-level trough will develop over the western US. With broad upper ridging over the eastern US, southerly low-level flow will develop and help transport ample moisture northward into the area. This will also allow temperatures to climb to well above normal values with highs 70s expected across the region. With the area expected to be in the open warm sector during the day, modest instability will develop, though will be inhibited by a weak cap. Thus, during the afternoon hours, the best chance for severe storms will likely be to our west along/ahead of the dryline and cold front. As that forcing tracks eastward during the evening hours, our thunderstorm chance will increase. Instability weakens significantly after 06Z so would anticipate any storms present to weaken as they track eastward with time Friday night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Currently a mixture of IFR and LIFR conditions at the terminals, with VIS ranging from 3SM to 6SM and CIGs ranging from 400 to 900 feet. All terminals are likely to become LIFR by late tonight, primarily driven by CIGs, but also could have some periods of fog reducing VIS to 1SM or less. Isolated showers will be possible in the 6z to 10z time frame Tuesday morning, with better chances for rain after 18z Tuesday. Winds should remain out of the east between 5 and 10 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.