textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s for most locations.

- Record warmth possible on Monday, with forecast highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

- Cooler, but still above normal for Tuesday into late week.

- Rain chances return by Thursday morning and continue into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Current H5 analysis overlaid with water vapor imagery shows a closed mid/upper low centered just off the coast of Baja California, with ascent downstream of this extending from Mexico northeastward into Kansas. At the surface, a loosely defined warm front is analyzed from southeastern South Dakota southward into far eastern Kansas, which will continue to move east northeastward through the CWA this morning. As of 3 AM, temperatures primarily reside in the mid 30s, with scattered high clouds and 5 to 10 mph winds out of the southeast. High temperatures today should climb into the low to even mid 60s for areas along and south of the Interstate 70 corridor within our CWA, with 50s north of Interstate 70, along with some modest moisture return.

By Monday, mid/upper ridging out ahead of the aforementioned closed upper low centered over Baja California and another shortwave trough translating west to east across the Northern/Canadian Plains shifts further eastward, bringing higher mid level heights and warmer 850 mb temperatures over the CWA. At the surface, a surface low is progged to move into NW Iowa by Monday afternoon, with south southwesterly surface winds increasing a bit in response. All of this will help yield very warm temperatures for Monday afternoon, with highs forecast to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across eastern Kansas and western MO. The NBM has trended warmer over the past 24 to 36 hours for Monday, and now the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles for Max T at MCI are 68 and 72 degrees, respectively. Note that the record high for Monday at MCI is 72 degrees set back in 1943.

By Monday night into Tuesday morning, the aforementioned mid/upper trough is projected to deepen/become more amplified as it moves east southeastward into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes. Models are now in better agreement that this will help push a cold front through the region from northwest to southeast late Monday night into early Tuesday, bringing cooler temperatures behind it (although still considerably above normal). This quicker FROPA would also help keep precipitation pushed further to the southeast, with only slight chance PoPs across our far east/southeastern counties toward Mid Missouri and the Ozarks for Tuesday evening/night. Dry conditions are likely on Wednesday with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Models diverge as we head into late week and the weekend, with roughly 10 degree spreads between the NBM 25th and 75th percentile for Max T for Thursday through Saturday. Quite a bit of cloud cover may linger over the region through this time period, with slight to chance PoPs (20 to 40 percent) for Thursday and Friday. By Friday night into Saturday, both the GFS and the ECMWF suggest a mid/upper trough traversing across the Desert Southwest/NW Mexico and into the far southern Plains, although they differ on the exact placement and evolution of these features. Regardless, this will yield increased chances for precipitation and more widespread QPF, with the NBM showing a 41% probability of precip exceeding 0.5" at MCI and a 33% probability of precip exceeding 1". The NBM currently gives at least a slight chance for mixed or wintry precipitation on Saturday morning, namely across NE Missouri, but obviously confidence is quite low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Currently VFR at the terminals with light southerly winds. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with some passing high clouds. Winds should turn WNW by late morning, remaining light, and finally becoming light and variable by this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.