textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday: - Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Sunday late morning - early afternoon, mainly east of line from Linn CO, KS to Putnam CO, MO. Strong to potentially damaging wind gust look possible if storms can develop.

- High winds are likely Sunday morning through Monday morning, with wind gusts of 50-55 mph likely. Portions of northeastern KS, northwestern to northeastern MO will likely see wind gusts near 60. A high wind warning has been issued for areas along and north of a Leavenworth CO, KS through Adair CO, MO.

- Wintry precipitation expected as cold air surges into the area. Overall, accumulations will be minor. But snow will be occurring with very strong/gusty winds, leading to brief periods of blizzard conditions. Snow squalls seem more probable given the surge of cold air and transient nature to heavier snow bands that move through.

- Bitterly cold wind chill values expected Monday morning with values below zero for much of the region. A cold weather advisory may be needed for areas north of Highway 36, where wind chill values of -15 to -20 are forecast.

* Warmer conditions build into the region for the later half of next week.

- High temperatures surge into the 70s for Wednesday, then climb into the 80s for the later half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A potent storm system will affect the region Sunday into Monday, bringing a multitude of hazards to the area.

Strong - Severe Storm Potential:

There is a relatively brief window from late Sunday morning, roughly 15Z, through 19-20Z, when there is any potential for severe storms. A modest ribbon of instability builds along and ahead of the surface front. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg look possible in this strip of instability. MLCAPE values are much lower, and potentially on a few hundred J/kg. But with impressive kinematics, shear values in excess of 45kts will exist. If more robust updrafts are able to develop, damaging winds will be possible.

High Winds Expected Behind the Front Sunday Morning - Monday AM:

The most confident aspect of this forecast are the winds. It's going to be windy across the entire area. The main concern is just how far do the strongest winds make it southward into Missouri and eastern Kansas. Confidence is highest in areas from Leavenworth CO, KS to Adair CO, MO will see wind gusts pushing 60 mph. So have upgraded the existing High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning and added a row of counties south. South of this, fairly high- end advisory level winds will be realized with gusts pushing 50-55 mph. It's possible a further expansion southward of the High Wind Warning will be needed, given steep lapse rates through 1.5 km and winds in that layer near 50 kts. But the tighter pressure gradient will be across northern MO with slightly less steep lapse rates but stronger winds through that layer. Winds will increase behind the strong cold front that will move through the area from mid-Sunday AM through early Sunday afternoon. There may be brief lag before the strongest winds move in though, but once they do, Wind Warning level winds will linger into the overnight hours. Winds begin to diminish early Monday morning with winds falling below advisory criteria late Monday morning or early Monday afternoon.

Wintry Precipitation Behind the Front as Cold Air Surges South:

This aspect is potentially the hardest to message. There will be periods of snow coincident with the strongest winds. But it's uncertain how continuous the snow will be. Rather, with the strong upper-level PV anomaly moving overhead, could see burst of snow with brief significant reductions in visibility during each burst. Of note, the NAM, GFS and even the RAP show the snow squall parameter approaching 4 to 6 units. This is higher than the levels forecast from the mid-January snow squall event. Additionally, with fracturing of snow crystals, snow ratios will be lower, cutting into snow amounts. So overall, snow amounts will be less than an inch for most locations. For northeastern MO, amounts may be on the order 1- 3". It's important to note that, while overall snow amounts will not be impressive, the snow coming in burst may cause problems on area roadways.

Bitterly Cold Temperatures Monday Morning:

With strong cold advection behind the front, temperatures will plummet into the single digits and teens by early Monday morning. Winds will continue to remain elevated as the storm system exits the region and this combination will lead to bitterly cold wind chill values. Values are forecast to range from near zero south of Highway 50, to near -20 along the IA state line/ far northwestern MO against Nebraska. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for portions of far northern MO for Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Later Half of Next Week:

Temperatures will warm up quickly Wednesday into the weekend as strong upper ridging builds over the western half of North America. Highs Wednesday will climb into the 70s with 80s forecast for Thursday - Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

The main concern for this set of forecasts will be the winds, both at the surface and aloft. Southeasterly winds this afternoon, with occasional gusts of 20-25kts will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. However, strong winds aloft will develop after 00Z as a powerful storm system approaches the area. This may result in a period of LLWS before enough mixing develops overnight to lead to winds gusting again. Then tomorrow morning, a strong cold front will move through the area. Winds will increase substantially behind the front from the northwest. Wind gusts of 40-45 kts look possible for MCI and STJ. Wind gusts to 40 kts look reasonable at this time for MKC and IXD.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011-012-020-028. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ001-002-011- 012-020-028. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for MOZ025- 029>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. High Wind Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for MOZ003>008-013>017-021>024. Wind Advisory from 4 AM to noon CDT Monday for MOZ003>008- 013>017-021>024. KS...High Wind Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to noon CDT Monday for KSZ025-102-103. Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for KSZ057- 060-104-105.