textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms possible this morning across eastern KS and far western Missouri.

- Cooler temperatures expected this weekend.

- 30 to 40% chance for showers/storms Sunday evening into Sunday night.

- Temperatures should gradually warm through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft remains entrenched over the region between high amplitude ridging across the Rockies and western CONUS and troughing across the Great Lakes and into Appalachia. At the surface, a very weak boundary is analyzed near the northern edge of the Ozarks, with high pressure yielding mostly clear skies with light and variable winds. Convection is ongoing this morning across portions of central Nebraska, and this will slowly drift to the southeast with the mean cloud layer flow, likely weakening as it moves into eastern and northeastern Kansas. It is possible that this convection (albeit in a relatively weak form) could make its way into our CWA in far eastern KS toward the MO border by around 9 AM or so, moving off to the south (into the SGF CWA) by late morning/early afternoon, with clouds clearing behind it. With the CWA positioned between ridging to the west and troughing to the east northeast, a decent high temperature gradient is expected this afternoon, with highs across NE Missouri forecast to reach the lower 80s, with highs in the upper 80s south and southwest of the KC metro (mid 80s likely in the KC metro).

On Sunday morning, an H5 50+ knot jet is progged to dig from NE Minnesota into southern Illinois on the western side of the trough across the NE CONUS. Meanwhile, a mid level vort max is projected to translate across NE/KS and into Missouri. This will help send a subtle reinforcing shot of marginally cooler and drier air, along with mid to high level cloud cover, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s (down from the mid to upper 80s) and dewpoints lowering a couple degrees. It will also bring a chance (20 to 30%) for some showers/storms to western portions of the CWA.

As we head into early next week, the center of the H5 high that is currently near the Four Corners area migrates slightly to the southeast over SE New Mexico and into west Texas, with northwesterly flow aloft remaining in place over the CWA as troughing remains over the NE CONUS. This will result in gradually warming temperatures through the week and occasional low end (20 to 30%) chances for showers/storms as disturbances and vort maxes translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the mid/upper ridge.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A complex of showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across SE Nebraska into NE Kansas as of 11z this morning. The eastern edge of this may clip the terminals this morning, so have maintained a PROB30 for showers at the terminals between 12z and 15z this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the period with light winds somewhat variable but generally out of the northeast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.