textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered chance for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. A few strong storms may be possible, with the main hazards being gusty to damaging winds and hail.

- Hot and humid weather engulfs the region starting Sunday and remains through at least mid next week. Heat indicies increase to 100-110 and overnight temperatures will not provide much relief. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Patchy dense fog and low stratus have spread over most of the region this morning. An SPS is out till 13Z this morning.

Ridging will start to build aloft beginning today. As a result, heights will increase and temperatures will increase. Looking to see highs in the 80s this afternoon, with the low 80s in over northern Missouri and upper 80s in the southern forecast area. Southern areas will begin to see heat indices in the 100-104F range this afternoon.

Shortwave energy currently over central Kansas will push east into the forecast area this afternoon. At the same time, the stalled surface frontal boundary will lift north as a warm front. This will increase CAPE and moisture into the region. These features will be enough to bring a chance for isolated to scattered showers and storms to the region. Environmental parameters include: 0-6km bulk shear around 25-30kts, SBCAPE 1800-2000J/kg, and DCAPE around 800- 900J/kg. This will allow some storms to become strong to severe, with the main threats being gusty to damaging winds and hail. Current timing is a window from 18-3Z this afternoon and evening.

As the shortwave pushes off to the east, showers and storms will dissipate. High pressure over the northern Gulf will strengthen and a low pressure over the Rockies will strengthen, which will increase southerly flow into the region. This will keep conditions dry, but temperatures warmer overnight. Expecting to see lows in the low to mid 70s Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

On Sunday and through most of next week, impressive ridging will continue to build over the central and eastern CONUS. Higher heights will increase temperatures each day. High pressure at the surface, will help to keep conditions dry. Enhanced southwesterly flow will increase dew points, leading to hot and muggy conditions. NBM and LREF ensemble probabilities show 60-90% chance of exceeding 95F most of next week. Additionally, we will not see much recovery overnight, as low temperatures are expected to be in the mid-to-upper 70s. Currently, NBM and LREF ensemble probabilities show a 70-90% chance of exceeding 75F and a 50-70% chance of exceeding 77F for minimum temperatures Sunday through Tuesday morning.

Due to the duration of this heat wave, heat indices forecasted, low temperatures forecasted, and Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk forecasted, have opted to go with an Excessive Heat Watch at this time. Likelihood of issuing a Warning at this time is high. Forecast confidence for this next week remains high given strong ensemble signals.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

A few showers are moving across the metro at the start of the forecast period. These showers have been shallow and are not expected to grow upscale leading to a low lightning threat. After these showers clear the area we will see VFR conditions, additional development for this afternoon is unclear, but confidence is not high enough to include a mention in the TAFs, especially given the latest trends with the high res guidance. Early tomorrow morning we will have a band of stronger winds in the low levels leading to wind shear concerns. Winds will begin to mix after sunrise leading to gusty south winds through Sunday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday night for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning from 1 PM Sunday to midnight CDT Thursday night for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.