textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Our stretch of dry weather comes to an end late tonight into early tomorrow morning and this wetter pattern will continue into the weekend.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible with strong winds and heavy rainfall as the primary risks.

- Hot and dry weather returns next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Tonight into Tomorrow... The upper level pattern looks to become more active as multiple shortwaves moves through the central CONUS. After one last day of quieter summer weather today the first round of weather looks to arrive late tonight into tomorrow morning. Storms are expected to initiate across the Upper Midwest and High Plains this evening near the cold front and track east this evening into tonight. The primary severe environment is where SPC has their highest risks are well to our west. Upscale growth into a MCS is very possible and this occurrence is what could give us a severe risk. Many of the CAMs show some amount of upscale growth, so it does seem like the more likely solution. If a MCS can develop with the aid of a robust LLJ we could see the MCS maintain itself well into eastern Kansas and Missouri. The primary threat with this will be strong winds and heavy rainfall. As the LLJ decouples, the storm would start to fall apart. How far east this gets before falling apart will play a key role in the rest of the day on Thursday. If it gets deep into Missouri before falling apart this will keep us cloudier and cooler keeping heat risks much lower. The forecast has clearly trended more in this direction over the past day. More of the spread now between the modeling systems is how far south to take this cooler solution. North of I-70 seems most likely, but some take it even farther. For later in the day the better environment does seem to be to the east and south, but storms could well initiate over western Missouri. Recent trends have started to favor farther east and SPC has updated their slight risk for tomorrow farther east to account for this. Once again how the morning plays out will be key as if we see an MCS a it may leave behind a MCV and that would be a favored area for additional CI. The more organized convection with the larger wind threat likely seems east where more destabilization will occur or farther south closer to the warm front.

Friday into the Weekend... Thursday's warm front will continue north and likely stall out over us Friday and Saturday before finally moving out on Sunday. This will provide more lift for additional rain chances. Looking towards the global ensembles there is signal for rain all the way through Sunday evening when spread starts to increase with more dry members starting to show up. This does not look like it will be a rain all the time kind of setup, but more of an intermittent rain. Timing when this will start and stop at this range is not something that can be done with much accuracy. Instability will be sufficient for thunderstorms, but the shear profile does not look as favorable for severe storms. However anytime you get instability with steep lapse rates some stronger storms are possible and with this SPC does have a marginal risk south of I-70 on Friday.

Next Week... There is strong agreement between the global deterministic models that a large ridge will develop over the central CONUS early next week. There is more variability in how this evolves over the rest of the week. This favors a return to hotter and dry weather for the next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Cloud will slowly increase through the evening with system approaching. Cloud bases and ceilings should remain VFR for most of the evening. Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected during the overnight hours, and this may result in a few hours of MVFR conditions as these move through. By mid afternoon, shower activity should push southeastward. More activity is possible late Thursday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.