textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong, gusty winds this afternoon and into the overnight hours.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon - Thursday. For Wednesday, the greatest risk area will north of Highway 136 for north central to northeastern MO.

- Wintry weather possible this weekend. There is ~30-35% for at least 0.5" of snow along and south of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A storm system is ejecting into the Central Plains this afternoon, with a strong surface low noted in northern NE and southern SD. In contrast, a strong high pressures area was evident near the Gulf coast/ southwestern LA. This has setup a tight pressure gradient across eastern KS and northwestern MO, resulting in sustained winds of 20-30 mph and some gusts to 40 mph. This evening and into the overnight, a strong LLJ will develop, with potential for 60+ kt winds 1-2KM AGL. This may keep wind gusts going after sunset, and potentially increase them from the daytime gusts. It's also possible that the boundary layer stabilizes enough that gusts diminish, while sustained winds linger. Regardless, it's going to remain windy into the first part of the overnight hours ahead of a cold front. It's just going to depend on if and how quickly the boundary layer cools. For now, think the strong flow leads to a higher potential for continued gusts after sunset. The cold front will move through the forecast area between 03Z (in our far northwestern zones) and 09Z (in our far eastern zones). Winds will diminish behind the cold front with notably drier air streaming into the area.

Additionally, can't rule out a passing shower, or even an isolated thunderstorm with the frontal passage. There is considerable dry air to overcome and the instability that is there is elevated above a strengthening cap/EML. That could keep anything from developing this evening anyway.

The dry air behind that cold front will lead to relative humidity values dropping into the 10 to 20% range for tomorrow afternoon. While winds won't be nearly as strong as today/this evening, we could still see wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range. This will lead to elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions north of Highway 136 in north central to northeastern MO. Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions continue into Thursday, with the greatest risk area shifted south of I-70.

Looking ahead to Saturday, models have trended towards slightly higher probabilities for wintry weather and minor snow accumulation. This is mostly being driven by the Canadian ensembles, where about two-thirds of its members produce accumulating snowfall. In contrast, most of the GFS and about half of the ECMWF ensemble members produce no accumulating snow. This leads to roughly a 30-35% chance for at least half an inch of snow along and south of I-70. Ensemble mean 500mb heights and vorticity show a progressive open wave as the system responsible for this chance for minor snow accumulations. The deterministic Canadian shows a much more robust shortwave moving out of Kansas, which explains its more robust QPF and snowfall forecast. It's possible this more robust wave is represented in its ensemble members as well, leading to its high bias in this event compared to the GFS and ECMWF guidance.

Beyond the system on Saturday, conditions look dry with temperatures near or bit below normal through Monday. Broad upper-level ridging returns by the middle of the next week with a trend for above normal temperatures as a result.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The main concern through the next 12+ hours is the strong and gusty winds affecting the area. For this afternoon, southerly wind gusts to between 30-35 kts will occur over eastern KS and western MO, affecting all TAF sites. This evening and into the overnight, very strong winds aloft, between 50-60kts, at 1500 to 2000 ft AGL, will develop. This is nearly unidirectional with the surface flow, so LLWS is not anticipated. These winds will occur ahead of a strong cold front that will move through the terminals between 03Z and 06Z. Winds will shift to the southwest and west behind this front and weaken considerably. Can't rule out some shower activity in the vicinity of the front but probability still looks too low to carry a mention at this time. Other than the strong winds, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.