textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous heat returns to the area. Heat index values of 100-110 degrees are anticipated with the higher values being south of the MO River today. 105-110 Heat index values are expected for Sunday.

- The hot and humid weather pattern remains consistent through Monday; however, some small chances for overnight convection early Monday and Tuesday add a bit of uncertainty.

- Slightly less hot conditions are expected later this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Friday's feature presentation was widespread light rainfall with embedded heavy downpours. That changes for Saturday as ridging builds across the Rocky Mountains returning hazardous heat to the region. Satellite imagery shows this expansive high pressure building across the eastern Rockies. This high dominate the weather pattern for much of the coming week.

Eastern Kansas and western MO find itself in the eastern quadrant of the high. This yield upper level northwesterly flow which one would traditionally think would tamper heat expectations. Unfortunately, low level flow remains southerly continuing to advect warm air and moisture into the region. This advection over the previous few days have established a warm and muggy environment to base Saturday's heat. As of midnight, the dew point at MCI sits at 73 degrees which yields a fairly soupy overnight. Low clouds continue to reside over the region; however, upper air analysis shows ridging building across the 850mb level which is expected to clear clouds out, especially once solar heating begins after sunrise. Heat is boosted by SSW flow lifting temperatures into mid to upper 90s. With base dew points averaging in the low to mid 70s, heat index values look to quickly increase into the triple digits. Ensemble guidance suggests a 30-50 percent chance of dew points exceeding 80 degrees across southern and central MO. Heat index values of 105-110 degrees are likely with isolated spots of 115 degrees possible in that region with most other seeing values in excess of 100 degrees. Sunday, the hazardous heat becomes more widespread as the axis of low level warm air advection expands. Much of the region is expected to see heat index values of 105-110 degrees. Dew points once again look to reach near 80 degrees across much of the region making it feel oppressively muggy. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s bring little relief from the daytime heat. Hazardous heat continues Monday were once again heat index values of 100-110 are possible.

There are some uncertainties with heat index values Sunday through Tuesday. Ridging across the CONUS during the summer oftentimes results in thunderstorm complexes running around the periphery of the ridge (mainly during the overnight) which can play havoc on daily temperature forecasts. Some models are suggesting the potential for a few of these thunderstorm complexes moving through the area which could affect the temperature outlook. However, general consensus across model members maintains the hazardous heat through the period. Higher confidence lies within the consensus as the placement of the high across the Rockies with generally NW flow is less suitable for moisture transport. The most likely facilitator of moisture in this synoptic configuration is the west coast which most of the water would be orographically squeezed out as it transits the Rockies.

Long range guidance suggest that some embedded upper level shortwaves may encourage the development of mid to low level lee troughs which look to disrupt the low level flow tipping the scales in favor of drier air working its way into the region. Highs tamper slightly back to the low 90s, but dew points fall significantly to around 70 degrees; although, it will still feel quite unpleasant. This will lower heat index expectations to around 100 which will feel relatively better than the 110 from earlier in the week. Precipitation chances remain present, especially late week, but model solutions remain quite divergent in timing and probabilities.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

BR/FG caused some impacts through the night; however, most terminals saw minor VIS impacts. More dense BR/FG lingers across far northern MO; however, BR/FG is expected to dissipate over the next couple of hours. Otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated with FEW to SCT low clouds. Winds remain generally out of the SSW through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>004-011>014-020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053- 054. Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ005>008-015>017-024-025-033. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.