textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for showers/storms tonight mainly south of I-70, with sprinkles possible to the north.

- Still looking like another active period of setting up for Thursday into Friday with showers and storms. Flooding is possible with a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms.

- Increasing heat and humidity and mainly dry conditions are anticipated this weekend into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Convective clusters continue generally sliding E/SE through Kansas into Oklahoma traversing along the NW/SE oriented moisture and instability gradients. Will keep some chance PoPs for a bit this evening/tonight mainly south of I-70 with the isentropic ascent/warm advection and a passing mid level shortwave. Confidence is low however, and these precipitation prospects will be largely determined by convective trends to our west as any continued convection could interrupt the moisture feed. Further to the north there could be some sprinkles with some higher based cloud bases and anvil seeding.

On Wednesday, anticipate largely dry conditions during the day despite an increase in moisture as forcing remains fairly nebulous.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

The main focus is with initially an active period of weather setting up for Thursday into Friday, and then this will be followed up by building heat and humidity over the weekend into early next week. The ingredients are in place for high coverage rain chances Thursday into Friday with a shortwave(s) ejecting out across the area in zonal flow aloft and with moisture pooling along a west-east surface boundary draped in or near the service area. There still remains plenty of uncertainty on the track of the shortwave(s) and location of the surface boundary, but with anomalously high moisture (PWATs of nearly 2 inches) the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding will exist. There is too much uncertainty on the location of rainfall and potential amounts right now to go with a Flood Watch, but we may need one once a favored corridor for heavy rain can be better determined, which currently is being suggested mainly south of I-70.

This weekend into early next week the signal continues to increase for building heat and humidity with a pattern change to a ridge building over the central CONUS. Some near daily very isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven convection can't be ruled out, but the main impact will the very warm/hot temperatures. Latest runs of the NBM depict high probabilities (75-90%) for exceeding 90 degrees as we get to Sunday through early next week with mean apparent temperatures around 100+ degrees. Certainly the potential for excessive heat will be something to monitor closely in the coming days, likely further accentuated by the recent cooler weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Currently VFR under generally clear skies with light and variable winds at all terminals. Broken MVFR status may impinge on the KC metro terminals from the southwest between roughly 12z and 18z Wednesday, but for now have kept VFR conditions through the period. A few isolated showers/storms may be possible in the region Wednesday evening, but have kept the TAF precip free. Light and variable winds should persist through the majority of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.