textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably hot today, with afternoon high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- Chance (30%) for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. If there are storms, they may be strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard.

- Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday and especially Sunday.

- Rain chances (30 to 40%) return late Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri remain beneath northwesterly flow aloft situated between a 598 dam H5 high centered over the Four Corners with associated ridging across much of the western CONUS and broad longwave troughing across the northeastern US. At the surface, high pressure has yielded clear skies and nearly calm winds. Some patchy fog may be possible this morning, especially closer to sunrise. Higher mid level heights will move in from the southwest today, helping push afternoon highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s for most locations. A subtle disturbance and vort max embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft toward the northeasterly periphery of the ridge is projected to translate northwest to southeast across Nebraska this afternoon, which may initiate convection across eastern Nebraska by mid afternoon. If this happens, this could potentially grow upscale into an MCS and enter into NE Kansas and NW Missouri by late afternoon/early evening, where CAMs suggest over 2500 J/kg of ML CAPE along with around 35 knots of deep layer bulk shear capable of sustaining robust convection (although convective inhibition may be strong enough to choke out the storms as they move toward/into the region). One interesting thing to note is that the 6z HRRR suggests an MCS developing across SE Nebraska, diving to the south southeast into western portions of the CWA by late afternoon and into the evening hours, with a relatively wide swath of strong winds. This will be something to watch closely as we progress through the remainder of the morning hours and into this afternoon. At this time SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe storms across the entire CWA. Additional convection is possible overnight tonight into early Saturday morning, but higher PoPs should remain west of the CWA across eastern KS.

Higher amplitude troughing is progged to dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Saturday, helping send a cold front north to south through the CWA. This will help cool temperatures a bit, with Saturday afternoon highs forecast to reach the mid 80s for most locations. Even cooler temperatures are likely for Sunday, as well as drier air filtering in from the north, with dew points only in the lower to mid 60s. Rain chances return to the region late Sunday night into Monday morning as a subtle shortwave is projected to translate through the northwesterly flow on the northeastern periphery of the upper ridge. Warmer (but seasonal) temperatures and increased moisture returns for Monday and into the middle of next week

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Light and variable winds at all terminals this morning, with VFR conditions under clear skies at the KC metro terminals but MVFR VIS at STJ due to fog. Fog should mix out by 14z this morning at STJ, returning conditions to VFR. Otherwise, light and variable winds and VFR conditions should continue at the terminals through the vast majority of the period. There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms at the terminals this evening, generally between 00z and 03z, so have introduced a PROB30 for this. If storms do impact the terminals, there may be brief reductions in VIS as well as brief periods of strong wind gusts. Showers may be possible once again overnight tonight into early Saturday morning, but for now confidence is too low to include in the 12z TAF issuance.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.