textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (15-25%) for storms Tuesday. Some of these may be strong to severe Tuesday afternoon-evening.

- Warming temperatures through the rest of the week with 90 degree highs possible Friday - Sunday.

- Unsettled weather this weekend into next week with multiple chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A strong shortwave trough, currently moving through North Dakota and into Minnesota, will dive southeastward through the western Great Lakes later today. This wave will push a cold front southward into/through the forecast area this afternoon and this evening. Southerly to southwesterly surface and low-level flow ahead of the front will advect moisture northward such that by this afternoon we may see dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 50 degree range. This will help lead to modest instability with mean MUCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 1500 J/kg in our western zones with lower values further northeast, removed from the slightly better lower-level moisture availability. Strong mid and upper-level winds, associated with the shortwave trough, will help lead to fairly strong deep-layer shear, with with 40-50kts of 0-6km shear available. If we had better moisture available, this would be a potentially volatile northwest flow supercell setup. But as it is, there's some uncertainty over whether we can get storms to even develop. With strongly veered surface winds, convergence along the front is limited, particularly during peak heating. This decreases confidence that anything will even initiate. Given all this, have limited PoPs to just slight/isolated mention along the southward advancing front this afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates with inverted-V like appearance. This suggest potential for some strong downdrafts in the strongest storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates may also lead to severe hail in the strongest storms as well. This is all conditional on if storms can develop in this fairly marginal setup.

Temperatures cool slightly for Wednesday as a cooler and drier airmass moves into the region. But for the later half of the week, a warming trend continues to look likely with highs climbing into the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s for Friday and through the weekend. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with these temperatures as it also looks unsettled with multiple chances for precipitation that could inhibit temperatures from reaching their potential. The region should see persistent southerly flow with moisture streaming northward from a wide- open Gulf. The moisture will help lead to better/ stronger instability Friday-Sunday. At the same time, the region will be in between the polar jet to the north and the subtropical jet to our south, leading to fairly weak mid/upper level flow and limiting available shear. This essentially looks like a summer- time pattern with potential for afternoon storms and possibly an MCS rolling through. From a probabilistic perspective, for the 72 hours ending 12Z Monday, there is generally a 25-40% chance for at least an inch of rain. There is also roughly a 10-15% chance for at least 2". These aren't high probabilities by any means, but it points to the potential at least, for a wet weekend. It isn't until late in the forecast/early next work week, that a stronger upper-level system moves through and pushes a cooler and drier airmass into the area that the precipitation chances diminish.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Southwesterly winds will increase several hours after sunrise with between 25 and 30kts. A cold front will move through the area this afternoon and evening, with a small chance for showers and storms for mainly the KC terminals and southward. Chances continue to look small enough to keep any mention out of the forecast. Rather, continued mention of a mid-level cloud deck moving through associated with the front. Winds become northwesterly this evening behind the front with winds generally 10kts and less from 00Z onward through the overnight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.