textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat will continue to build across the region into the coming week. High temperatures in the 90s F with heat index values in the 100s F are expected Sunday through Tuesday. Given influence from potential precipitation and storm chances, no changes to heat headlines will be made at this time. An Extreme Heat Watch will remain in effect for areas south of U.S. HWY 50 Sunday through Wednesday morning.

- There remains slight chances for storms (generally less than 30 percent) this evening and overnight into early Sunday. A Marginal Risk for one or two severe thunderstorms remains for northwestern Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas Tonight. Damaging winds would be the main hazard.

- Seasonable, cooler, temperatures and frequent chances for showers and thunderstorms will return later in the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Through 130 PM, a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has maintained across central into eastern Nebraska. This activity has been fairly steady state for the past few hours on IR and focused along a supportive instability axis and persisting mid- level southerly flow. CAMs have continued to try and dissipate this cluster, but so far it's been holding on with modest MCS maintenance conditions; it had decent shear/cold pool balance, but latest radar scans have an outflow well ahead now. Timing- wise, whatever can hold on could make northwest Missouri by 3 to 4 PM CDT and potentially persisting through sunset.

Elsewhere, for the remainder of the afternoon temperatures have slowly climbed into the mid 80s F, with upper 80s to 90 F expected for high temperatures this afternoon. The region remains on the eastern periphery of the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners. This pattern will persist through Tuesday with slight amplification of the ridge axis by midweek. In response, our region will remain under upper level northwest flow, with periodic passes of short wave troughs bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Overnight, as boundary layer return flow shifts more south- southeast, a short wave trough traversing Iowa may provide focus for scattered thunderstorms across northern Missouri through daybreak. Cannot rule out a few strong to severe thunderstorms given sufficient instability and modest shear. Damaging thunderstorm winds would be the primary hazard. The more widespread focus for Sunday will be the warmer temperatures as southwesterly flow increases through the afternoon and highs reach the mid to upper 90s F across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. With dew points in the 70s, heat index values will easily breach the century mark, with potential for 105 to potentially 110 F HI values. At this time, no changes were made to the previously issued Extreme Heat Watch for locations south of US HWY 50. There remains uncertainty in how any morning precipitation and cloud cover may impact temperatures, specifically if any outflow boundaries develop and how far south they travel. At this time, will defer to later shifts to upgrade or transition the watch.

Heat will continue to be an issue Monday as warm southwesterly low level flow persists, amplified by a rather stout H850 trough developing over the central plains. However, again, an upper level open short wave trough crossing off the Northern Plains will bring another chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to northern Missouri and could influence temperatures. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Monday. Damaging wind would be the primary hazard with any strong storms that develop in the afternoon. A similar pattern will persist Tuesday and again on Wednesday. The Extreme Heat Watch will continue through Wednesday and will be modified as needed over the coming days.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

The western trough will begin to amplify over the Rockies Wednesday into Thursday, shifting the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity farther south across the lower Missouri Valley. This will also bring more seasonable temperatures to the region and a respite from the hotter temperatures early in the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances ill exist near daily Thursday and through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Light southeasterly winds will persist this afternoon, with a slow progression to more southerly flow by this evening. Overnight, ceilings will increase in coverage and winds will gradually increase, with a more southerly component. There remains a signal for some isolated shower and thunderstorm development Sunday morning, but confidence in timing and coverage remains such that no mention in the TAFs is appropriate at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for KSZ057-060.