textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures come to an end on Wednesday as a cold front pushes into our region.

- Winds 15-20 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts Wednesday afternoon.

- Chances for a widespread freeze possible Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Current synoptic features, along with a surface high pressure center to our south will promote for one more day of above normal temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s, with light winds on Tuesday. This is going to change as the jet stream to our north begins to dig southward into our region Tuesday night into Wednesday. The jet digging to the south will promote the development of a much more meridional pattern, with the trough strengthening, and a ridge building to our west. As a result, the warm airmass that we have been seeing, along with cold air advection in the Upper Plains will allow for the development of a low pressure center to begin developing to our north. The center of the low will continue to deepen across portions of Iowa, and eventually move into Northern Illinois by mid-day Wednesday. Temperatures Wednesday will rise close to 60 degrees, with warmer temperatures for our southern counties by midday, but will change as a cold front from the north plows through in the afternoon hours. In addition, the tight pressure gradient across Missouri will result in higher winds of 15- 20 kts, with localized gusts approaching 30 kts. Because of our pressure gradient, we elected to include the NBM 90th percentile in our forecast to account for higher wind chances. In terms of precipitation, a low chance for a stray shower is possible, especially for our far northeast counties. However, forcing and moisture totals needed are aligned much better to our east. Winds diminish during the late evening and overnight hours Wednesday into Thursday, as the low continues to progress east.

Winds Thursday will continue to come from the north, and as a result, cooler temperatures in the 40s and low 50s be the reality during the day. Overnight Thursday, skies will be mostly clear, in which the NBM models are giving high probabilities of temperatures below 32 degrees, especially in areas north of Interstate 70, and outside of Kansas City proper. Cold air advection will remain on Friday, which will help promote higher probabilities of a widespread freeze for Saturday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail today under light southwest winds. Patchy fog may try to develop tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Best chances for fog development would be across central Missouri, mainly east of TAF sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.