textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to extreme fire danger across the region this afternoon and again Saturday afternoon.

- Freeze warning region wide tonight into Saturday morning.

- Record high temperatures possible on Monday, with another strong cold front expected Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

1040+ mb high pressure has built into the western Northern Plains centered across the western Dakotas as of 18Z. The cooler, drier airmass change will lead to breezy conditions with low relative humidity. With 10 hour fuels generally running in the 7-9 percent range, it won't take much for a fire to rapidly spread out of control. As such, have a red flag warning for eastern Kansas through northern Missouri through the afternoon hours where relative humidity values are expected to fall into the 15-25 percent range through the afternoon hours. Conditions are expected to improve through the evening hours as winds decrease and relative humidity values recover as temperatures cool with the dry airmass.

This area of high pressure is expected to slide southeast across the region tonight leading to good radiative conditions. With the dry air mass in place, have hedged the forecast towards the lower side of guidance but there is a relatively small spread amongst the various ensemble members- suggesting high confidence in subfreezing conditions area wide. Given the growing degree days across the region are generally in the 150-250 range, have coordinated a freeze warning area wide with neighbors to the east and south.

Area of high pressure is expected to shift east of the region tomorrow with strong pressure gradient leading to increasing southerly winds on Saturday. With dry airmass in place and Gulf remaining closed, will once again see extreme fire danger across the region Saturday afternoon. Current forecast has relative humidity falling into the 15-20 percent range, but that could be on the high side with limited moisture return and a wealth of dry air mixing down from aloft. Did not include areas of central Missouri into the Red Flag Warning on Saturday as winds look to be light enough closer to the center of the ridge.

Southerly flow continues Saturday night into Sunday leading to more mild conditions and lows Saturday night 10-15 degrees warmer than tonight. Temperatures continue to warm Sunday into Monday, with near record highs possible once again on Monday (record at MCI is 82 in 1986; record is 86 set in 1968 at STJ).

Zonal flow transitions more to southwest to northeast flow aloft as a series of short waves phased with a more substantial trough across southern Canada push east into the plains. This could lead to periodic showers and thunderstorms chances from Tuesday through the remainder of the week as the roller coaster ride continues.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, but along with some breezy/gusty winds once again. Winds overnight will remain on the light side and switch around to the SE by around/after sunrise. Speeds increase through the morning and early afternoon, with sustained winds around 15kts and gusts into the mid 20s kts. Strongest winds may be seen around KSTJ where pressure gradient may be tightest/strongest. Winds remain up Saturday evening/overnight as gradients remain tight, including occasional gusts into the upper teens kts possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30: KMCI: 82/1986 KSTJ: 86/1968

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008- 011>016-020>024-028>031-037-038-043. KS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105.