textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning Until 10pm Saturday Night

- Cooler, Gusty Winds on Sunday

- Temperatures Rebound Through The Week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

There is still a 588dam H5 high located over the southwestern CONUS but the overall mid-level ridge axis has de-amplified with a few short-wave perturbations over the Northern Rockies. H5 flow across the northern third of the CONUS is now more zonal. The dAVA regime has gradually diminished today but skies have remained clear as the nearest forcing is still well north of the area. Clear skies allowed for plenty of insolation and started robust mixing this afternoon. Relative humidity values have dropped below 30 percent across much of the area, and below 20 percent in the northwest forecast zones. Winds in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas have been around 20 MPH so far, but there is still potential for a few gusts above 25 MPH through the latter part of the afternoon into the early evening. Therefore no changes have been made to the Red Flag Warning, this will still be in place until 10pm this evening. Areas east of the current Red Flag Warning will see lower RHs through early evening, but wind gusts further east should be capped at around 20 MPH. Heading into the evening, a few enhanced areas of dCVA over the Northern Rockies will promote surface pressure falls in the northern High Plains and northwestern Sand Hills Region of Nebraska. Another area of surface pressure falls will take place in the western Great Lakes Region. Our far northern zones may see decreasing surface trends heading into the evening, as well as a stronger pressure gradient which will maintain breezy conditions past sunset.

The surface cyclone will continue to deepen and move southeastward across the Central Plains on Sunday, with a strong cold front trailing it. Strengthening pressure gradient will eventually lead to wind gusts above 30 MPH for much of Sunday, with several pockets of gusts between 35-40 MPH possible. Cloud cover will start to increase as well, with upper-level moisture moving in, but a dry boundary layer is expected to prevent any precipitation from reaching the surface on Sunday. Overall propagation speed of the cyclone and trailing cold front remains faster compared to model solutions from days prior. There is still decent inner-quartile spread amongst various ensemble suites for high temperatures on Sunday, but will trend the official highs somewhere between the 25th and 50th percentiles. The front is likely to push through the northwest forecast area zones prior to peak heating. Areas between Hwy. 36 and I-70 may see the boundary pass through during peak isolation hours. South of Hwy. 50 may not see the boundary pass until after much of the peak heating, which could allow temperatures south of Hwy. 50 to hit the upper 70s or even lower 80s. Cloud cover thickness may also play a role in this. The front pushes into the Ozarks Region by late Sunday evening. Strong pressure gradient along with notable CAA will keep winds breezy post FROPA into the late evening hours.

Monday will feature the H5 high over the southwest CONUS attempting to push a ridge axis back northward while amplifying, providing dAVA into the Central CONUS and developing a broad surface anticyclone from the eastern Plains into the Great Lakes Region. Flow will remain northerly during this time, keeping Monday's high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across much of the area. Tuesday into Wednesday, ridge axis shifts eastward and will push an 850mb thermal ridge into the eastern Plains, introducing another round of WAA. A few vort maxima across the northern CONUS looks to inhibit rapid H5 height raises through the middle of the week though. Temperatures should push back into the mid and upper 60s Tuesday, and guidance is suggesting lower 80s possible for Wednesday. Low level moisture return remains questionable as we head into the middle of the week for our region. We may see some upper- level cloud cover if there is minimal modification to Pacific moisture (primarily above 500mb). Some solutions keep our low-level flow due south, allowing transport from the Gulf. Other solutions evolve the H5 pattern over the southwestern CONUS differently that present more southwesterly or even west-southwesterly flow into the lower Missouri River Valley. A few ensemble members are starting to hint at slightly increased probabilities for a few hundredths of an inch of rain from Tuesday into Wednesday, but it may have to overcome a dry boundary layer. The NBM has kept probabilities under 15 percent, so for now the official forecast will keep conditions dry through the middle of the week. Persistent WAA continues into Thursday, but Friday and Saturday of next week are showing increasing probabilities for rainfall as a series of mid-level short- wave promote notable H5 height falls across much of the central CONUS that should provide enough lift with preceding moisture transport. This will then lead to cooler temperatures for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail thru the pd with a few high clouds expected thru 10Z aft which high clouds will become bkn. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south btn 7-12kts with a few gusts to 20-25kts poss btn 05Z-10Z. The cold front is fcst to mov thru the TAF sites btn 12Z-14Z shifting winds to the north btn 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts. Winds will further incr out of the north aft 17Z to 20-25kts with gusts to 30-35kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>005- 011>014-020-021-028. KS...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102- 103.