textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of showers and storms are expected (>95% chance for accumulating rainfall) across the forecast area today through Thursday night. Heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The main concern this forecast period will revolve around the potential for several rounds of rain today through Thursday night possibly leading to flooding. Today, an upper level ridge that has built over the region will flatten out as a upper level shortwave moves through the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a warm front will lift northward from the Red River Valley into southeastern Kansas. While the surface feature will remain south of the area a weak LLJ will over run the front and nose into the area today bringing the chance (30-50%) of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the western CWA. Highs today will range from the upper 70s to mid 80s. Tonight, rain changes will increase across the forecast area as the LLJ intensifies and becomes more focused over the area. Best chances will be across the northwestern CWA where PoPs will be in the 70-90+% range whereas precipitation chances south of Highway 50 are less than 15%. PWATs across the northern CWA will range between 1.80"-2.20" which is around the 100th percentile for early October. As such, heavy rain will possible, and consequently a flood watch will go into effect after midnight across northwest Missouri and extreme northeastern Kansas.

Wednesday into Thursday, a closed upper level trough over the desert southwest will slowly move out into the Plains. Several lead shortwave will eject out of the feature bringing the chance for continued round of storms into the area. A persistent LLJ nosing into the area will continue to provided added lift and moisture as PWAT will remain between 1.80"-2.20" during this period. Late Thursday into Thursday night the closed upper trough over the central Plains will become an open wave and finally becomes more progressive. The upper level trough will move through the area Thursday night pushing a cold front through the area bringing one last round of heavy rain to the area. All told, current forecast precipitation amounts for this three day event range from 2-4+ inches for areas along and north of the Highway 36 corridor with 1-3 inches south. Antecedent conditions across northern Missouri after this past weekend weather are wetter with 1-3" having had fallen and with the heavier precipitation expected to be focused there the flood watch that is out through Thursday night appears warranted. Not as much precipitation fell further south over the weekend and with lesser amounts forecast we will hold off on expanding the watch although it may be necessary with further updates. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with unsettled conditions keeping highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s Thursday.

Conditions are expected to be mainly dry in the extended period although a few left over showers will be possible across the southern CWA on Friday. Much cooler conditions are expected Friday as well with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Surface high pressure then looks to build into the area for the weekend into early next week. This will aid in keeping highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conds are expected to begin the TAF pd with a few-sct clouds around 6kft and a ovc deck of hi clouds abv. By 17Z-19Z a ovc mid-lvl cloud deck around 10kft is expected to mov into the TAF sites. Aft 23Z-00Z...lgt rain is expected to impact the TAF sites which may reduce vis to 5SM-6SM under a ovc deck btn 4-5kft. Lgt rain is expected thru 08Z-10Z aft which ovc cigs btn 4-5kft are fcst (except at STJ which may experience MVFR cigs aft 06Z). Winds are expected to be out of the south btn 7-12kts (with a few gusts to 20kts poss at IXD btn 16Z-19Z) thru 08Z-10Z when they are fcst to back to the SE/SSE and diminish to btn 4-8kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for MOZ001>005-011-012. KS...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for KSZ102.