textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Chance of storms building into the region Friday afternoon/evening from the north/northwest.

* Cooler and drier conditions through the weekend.

* Unsettled weather next week leading to periodic storm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Broad high pressure across the Upper Midwest centered near the Quad Cities as of 18Z is expected to slowly shift towards the Tennessee Valley. Weak return flow is expected to develop overnight, and could see a few elevated storms develop in eastern Kansas/ southern Nebraska overnight. This activity is expected to remain largely west and north of the forecast area tonight, but may try to build south during the day Friday within the northwest flow aloft. With that said, the cap increases in strength the further south you go, making it increasingly difficult to get convection. Models are highly variable in the potential for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening, and therefore SPC has expanded the day two marginal across much of the area.

Shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft located in northern Minnesota is expected to build southeast tonight into tomorrow towards the western Great Lakes region. This could lead to late day storm developing across eastern Iowa along cold front building south. If this activity is able to develop south and west a, there is the low potential for thunderstorms across north central Missouri.

Light flow is expected tomorrow night into Saturday morning. With lack of large scale forcing across the region, it will likely be difficult to get storms to form directly in eastern KS into northern- central Missouri, but weak low level warm air advection across central Nebraska into central Kansas may lead to additional storms that may try to work into the region under the northwest flow aloft.

Upper ridge across the western US strengthens with long standing trough across the eastern US through the weekend. Canadian high pressure attempts to squeeze south across the central US keeping the forecast dry and cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend. Ridge across the west expands east but northwest flow aloft remains leading to periodic chances of precipitation next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Concerns for BR/FG development remain as dew point depressions compress. High cloud cover enveloping the region looks to discourage BR/FG development at the terminals sans STJ which is likely to fog in the river valley. BR/FG is more likely across portions of central MO where cloud cover is less. BR/FG vacates after sunrise where VFR conditions return. Winds remain light and variable through the period generally out of the SW through the morning becoming more northerly by the evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.