textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning Today NW Missouri and NE Kansas

- Gusty Winds Across The Entire Area Today

- Rain Sunday, Possible Rain-Snow Mix Late Sunday Night

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Surface anticyclone will be pushed southward as a compact H5 short-wave trough and strong vort maxima move across the northern Plains, with attendant surface cyclone moving the toward the southeast. While the center of the cyclone is tracking to miss our area to the northeast, surface pressure falls are expected through out the day and will see a rapid increase in the pressure fall rate through the afternoon. Meanwhile, 850mb flow will be more westerly promoting adiabatic compression warming, with WAA extending into the lower Missouri River Valley. With clear skies this afternoon allowing for robust boundary layer mixing and strengthening pressure gradient, very gusty southwest to south-southwest winds are expected this afternoon. The past 24 hours, model soundings have been persistent with 35 kts winds at the top of the mixed layer. In the past few RAP runs this morning, there has been a slight upward trend above 40 kts, which may present potential to cross above 45 MPH for wind gusts. However, guidance for this right now is only suggesting this would be for an hour or two. Therefore, have held off from issuing a Wind Advisory at this point. But, if we continue to see an upward trend in possible wind gusts or a signal it may occur over a longer duration, a Wind Advisory may become necessary for this afternoon and through the evening. In addition to gusty winds, the mixing will also rapidly reduce relative humidity values this afternoon, and in northwest MO and northeast KS, expected to see values drop below 30 percent for several hours. Although some areas saw some rainfall, there are still expansive areas with dry fuels. With these conditions, have maintained the Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and evening that was issued yesterday. Any fires that develop will the ability to spread rapidly if not properly contained. Strong pressure gradient remains in place through the late evening hours as surface cyclone deepens over the Great Lakes Region. The cold front that trails this system will attempt to push through, but another weak disturbance over the Rockies helps to prevent flow from turning northwesterly, limiting any strong CAA potential.

Pattern will be fairly zonal for Friday with modest surface high pressure over the area, leading to another day of temperatures in the upper 50s. A few locations south of Hwy. 50 may hit the lower 60s on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Saturday morning, next mid-level disturbances works eastward from the Intermountain West region and will promote dCVA over the Front Range and surface cyclogenesis. In response, low-level flow turns southerly across much of the Central CONUS, pushing a warm front into the lower Missouri River Valley, an increasing moisture transport. This should send temperatures Saturday afternoon into the upper 60s across much of the area, with 70s south of Hwy. 50. Our far northeastern zones may struggle to reach above the upper 50s. Winds may become breezy depending on the rate of cyclone deepening over the High Plains through Saturday afternoon. Late Saturday night the H5 trough digs and drastically increases dCVA across the Plains allowing the surface cyclone to deepen, with height falls expanding eastward into our area. Expecting strong isentropic ascent to increase cloud cover through much of Sunday, and as the nose of the mid- level jet arrives will provide the lift needed for shower and thunderstorm activity. Instability will be fairly limited and capped Sunday afternoon. So even though though deep layer wind shear values are high, current setup would not allow storms to utilize it. Better thermodynamics will be present over the Ozarks regions of Missouri. A strong cold front moves in behind this system late on Sunday. If precipitation is still ongoing late in the evening, or into the overnight hours, a rain-snow mix is likely to be observed, and far northern Missouri may see some snow. There are a few models depicting few tenths of an inch of snowfall production on the back side of this system. However, with the warm afternoon temperatures of Saturday and Sunday, most surfaces will not efficiently accumulate snow. We would need very robust hourly snowfall rates to see this happen. This should help limit impacts if any occur at all. By Monday morning, we could see temperatures in teens in northern and northeastern Missouri.

For the start of the next work week, a highly amplified H5 ridge is expected to develop over the western CONUS with a deep trough axis moving across the Great Lakes. This results in strong, persistent northwesterly flow for our area, which will keep temperatures below normal for the middle March for a few days. By the middle of the week, this ridge axis slides eastward and will provide another push of WAA to bump temperatures back toward normal. A few ensembles show a weak disturbance riding through the ridge that may bring precipitation chances next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals under clear skies with light and variable winds. Winds should become southwesterly by Thursday morning, increasing to 12 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots by around 16z. Winds should increase further, with sustained winds on the order of 20 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 to 35 knots by around 21z Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through the period under generally clear skies.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102-103.