textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light snow/flurries, even light freezing drizzle, exits eastward tonight/very early Wednesday. - Primarily N/NE Missouri

* Warming temperatures lead to MUCH above normal conditions through the end of the week and into the weekend. - A few records in jeopardy towards the end of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

The dominant driver of the big picture forecast continues to be the very stout (especially for time of the year) ridge building over the SW CONUS. With its current position over Southern California, this places the immediate area stoutly underneath NW flow aloft. A combination of a broad surface/near-surface high over the SE US, a weak shortwave sliding through the NW flow, and an accompanying plume of moisture riding over the upper ridge has resulted in sufficient and deep enough lift (isentropic) to yield periods of light snow. Initially, lift was seen throughout much of the column, resulting in broader light precipitation. But by the time of this writing, the low level support had begun to push eastward, drying out the lowest levels. With isentropic lift remaining in the mid levels, some precipitation remains albeit more scattered in nature. Radar depictions alone would suggest widespread light precipitation reaching the ground, are currently overdone with the drier low levels. This activity winds down over the next few hours, but before that it is possible to see some light icing with a stout warm nose in place above near-freezing to a few degrees below freezing temperatures over areas north of the Missouri River.

Much of the rest of the current 7-day forecast is dominated by the influence of a >590dm 500mb high slowly drifting eastward along the US/Mexican border. Gradually increasing heights/thicknesses through the rest of the week results in temperatures climbing to as much as 25 to 30 degrees above normal by Friday and Saturday. Basically expect Thursday highs 25-30+ degrees warmer than today, then another handful of degrees warmer each day through Saturday when highs peak. Basically 60s to low 70s Wednesday, upper 60s to 70s Thursday, upper 70s to mid 80s Friday, and 80s Saturday. While highs peak on Saturday, records are most likely to fall on Friday with relative "low hanging fruit" within the climate record. During this time frame, little to speak of with regards to precipitation chances as the stout ridge deflects any notable shortwave opportunities northward. By Sunday ridge begins to break down and flatten, aided by stronger northern stream shortwave activity. A cold front will push through the area Sunday, dropping temperatures at least briefly back towards seasonal norms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light southwest winds today becoming southerly Wednesday evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.