textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures are expected to increase through the weekend and into Monday.

- Heat indices above 100 degrees are probable for Sunday and Monday afternoon.

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. A few strong storms may be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Broad mid/upper troughing remains in place over the north central CONUS, with the stationary surface boundary draped from NE Missouri into central MO and turning westward south of the KC metro. Showers and storms have finally exited the CWA to the east, but overcast skies remain, keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 70s for most locations as of 3 PM this afternoon. Robust convection has blossomed across SW Missouri in the vicinity of Springfield. Can't completely rule out some convective development in the far southern or southeastern portions of the CWA later this afternoon/evening along/ahead of the stalled boundary, and SPC has these areas within a marginal risk for severe weather. However, CAM guidance suggests convective activity should remain south and southeast of our CWA. Low level jet induced convection is likely to develop across east central Kansas late tonight, but this should by and large remain west of our CWA.

Temperatures should heat up tomorrow as we become more under the influence of the 597 dam H5 high over the Four Corners region. Another shortwave trough is progged to descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest tomorrow, bringing a cold front north to south with it, which is likely to trigger convection across southern Minnesota into northern Iowa by late morning and early afternoon. It is possible that this convection could grow upscale into an MCS and could potentially stay together and reach northern Missouri by tomorrow evening, although CAM guidance varies significantly at this time. That being said, SPC is concerned enough about this possibility that is has included northern MO (along and north of US Highway 36) within a marginal risk for severe storms for tomorrow.

As we head into the weekend and early next week, the western ridge continues to exert increased influence over our region, with temperatures and heat indices on the rise. Heat indices should approach 100 degrees for southern portions of the CWA on Saturday, with heat indices flirting with heat advisory criteria on Sunday and Monday (and perhaps even into Tuesday). Given our position toward the eastern edge of the primary ridge and within west northwesterly flow aloft, MCS activity will be possible, especially on Saturday night/Sunday morning and again on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the TAF period. Light and variable winds will hang around for much of the overnight period. Given light winds and decreasing cloud cover overnight, some fog may be able to develop, primarily across northern Missouri. Further south and closer to the MO/KS borer, CIGs may fall to MVFR and even IFR early Friday morning as showers and storms in Kansas decay while moving east. At this time, categorical reductions look too sporadic and brief to be mentioned in the TAF but will continue to monitor trends. Regardless, CIGs will lift late morning/early afternoon with winds settling out of the southwest.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.