textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and windy today.

- Record highs likely on Monday, with gusty southerly winds once again.

- Cold front will move through the region on Tuesday, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible to likely Wednesday through Saturday, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a 586 dam high centered over southern Texas with low amplitude ridging extending northward through much of the west central CONUS. At H85, a 30+ knot southwesterly oriented low level jet has developed out ahead of the H85 and surface low centered over South Dakota, helping keep surface winds around 10 knots this early morning. After a couple days of cooler temperatures, we should warm up into the mid 70s across the region this afternoon, with southerly surface winds increasing by late morning and continuing through the afternoon hours (sustained 15 mph with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph). Moisture return will resume today, allowing for dew points to rise from the mid 20s this morning to the mid to upper 40s by mid to late afternoon, keeping fire weather concerns tempered.

By tonight an upper trough is progged to enter into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, entering into the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon with a surface low deepening over western Nebraska. This will result in a hot and windy day for our CWA, with temperatures forecast to rise into the mid to even upper 80s on Monday afternoon, which would once again break records across the CWA, along with SSW winds gusting up to 30 to 35 mph. Additionally, moisture return should continue, with dew points rising into the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The aforementioned upper trough is progged to continue eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tuesday morning, sending a cold front toward our CWA from the northwest. Guidance still differs a bit with respect to the timing of the front, but the front should enter into NW Missouri sometime late Tuesday morning, making its way through the KC metro sometime mid to late Tuesday afternoon, and completely through the CWA by Tuesday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely along and ahead of the front, especially toward Mid Missouri on Tuesday evening/Tuesday night. The threat for severe weather remains relatively low at this time.

Much cooler temperatures (highs in the 50s) are expected for Wednesday and Thursday, with shower and thunderstorm chances continuing as the front is likely to stall somewhere in the vicinity of northern Arkansas and another upper trough likely moving into the plains on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Recent models suggest a deep, closed mid/upper low and accompanying trough entering the north central Plains on Friday night into early Saturday, ejecting to the northeast on Saturday with a long trailing cold front extending southward from the surface low across northern Minnesota moving west to east through the region. This would bring relatively high chances (70%) for yet another round of showers and thunderstorms for Friday night into Saturday. With the threat for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms from Tuesday into Saturday, current forecast rainfall totals range from around 1.5" across NW Missouri to as high as 4" toward the Ozark Plateau in the southeastern portions of the CWA. Despite the potentially substantial rainfall totals, the rain should fall across a long enough period of time that flash flooding concerns are relatively low at this time (only marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC on Wednesday night into Thursday), however, the ECWMF EFI and SOT does suggest at least the potential for an usual rainfall event on Tuesday night and again on Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with southerly winds around 10 knots. Southerly winds should increase by around 14z this morning, with gusts up to 25 knots continuing through the remainder of the morning and the afternoon hours. Gusts should begin to relax by around 00z this evening, with gusts completely relaxing by around 3z Monday and sustained winds around 10 knots. VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period with only some passing high clouds.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 30: KMCI: 82/1986 KSTJ: 86/1968

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.