textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely overnight into early Wednesday afternoon.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are likely late Thursday night into Friday morning. A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon into late Friday night, with all severe hazards possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current H5 analysis shows the center of the mid/upper low over central Colorado and the attendant shortwave trough extending southward into New Mexico, with 40 to 50 knot west southwesterly mid/upper flow downstream across eastern KS into Missouri. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows the warm front that lifted northward from Arkansas has stalled out, becoming a stationary boundary toward the northern edge of the Ozark Plateau. Increased ascent has yielded scattered showers north of the stalled boundary as of midnight Wednesday morning. SPC mesoanalysis shows 500+ J/kg of MU CAPE along with 40+ knots of effective bulk shear roughly along and south of a Olathe to Moberly line, however as of now there remains enough MU CIN to prohibit elevated thunderstorm initiation. If the MU CIN is able to be overcome, then a few storms could be capable of producing severe hail. Otherwise, scattered showers, patchy fog and low stratus will continue through the overnight hours with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

By later this morning, the aforementioned shortwave trough travels further eastward into the south central High Plains, providing continued forcing for ascent. CAMs suggest that this should help develop a large area of showers and thunderstorms across southeastern Kansas by mid Wednesday morning, with this crossing the state line into Missouri by late Wednesday morning and traversing eastward through southern portions of the CWA into early Wednesday afternoon (generally south of Interstate 70). A few isolated showers may linger into Wednesday afternoon and evening. By late Wednesday night, the mid/upper trough axis and surface boundary finally shifts east of the region, bringing an end to rain chances for Thursday morning and afternoon. Meanwhile, mid/upper ridging builds in behind the passing shortwave and downstream of a highly amplified trough moving into the western CONUS, allowing for temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s Thursday afternoon.

Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the region once again by late Thursday night into Friday morning out ahead of the approaching longwave trough across the Four Corners region as guidance suggests a 50+ knot south southwesterly oriented low level jet developing over the region. This will also usher in increased moisture, with dew points rising from the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday afternoon to the mid to upper 50s by Friday morning. A few storms could be strong to severe, especially across far eastern Kansas and into NW Missouri.

As we head into Friday, the aforementioned mid/upper trough previously over the Four Corners is progged to take on a negative tilt as it pivots into the Central Plains, with an accompanying surface low entering into eastern Nebraska by Friday afternoon, placing our CWA within the open warm sector (high temps in the 70s with SSW winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph Friday afternoon). While at least some convective inhibition will be present, if this inhibition is able to be overcome, any storm that does initiate will be able to tap into moderate instability, steep lapse rates, and 45 to 50 knots of deep layer shear within the open warm sector, which would be supportive of supercells capable of all severe hazards. As the trough and surface low progress east northeastward, the accompanying cold front should move through the region from northwest to southeast late Friday night into early Saturday morning. Due to strong forcing, it seems probable that convection would grow upscale into a line of thunderstorms along/slightly out ahead of the front, with damaging wind gusts and mesovortices possible given an environment of ~1000 J/kg of ML CAPE, 50 knots of deep layer shear, and 35 knots of 0-3 km shear.

Temps will be cooler behind the front on Saturday, but temperatures are projected to rebound quickly, with highs in the upper 60s on Sunday and into the upper 70s on Monday. Dry conditions are likely Saturday into Monday, as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

IFR conditions are likely to continue through the period. DZ and reduced VIS persists with multiple rounds of RA expected. Isolated TSRA is possible for MKC and points south. There is a small window between rounds of SHRA to lift CIGs towards 1000FT and/or P6 VIS. Winds remain light generally out of the north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.