textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Potential for severe storms tonight, but there is a high amount of uncertainty in how event might evolve. Any storms that develop would be capable of heavy rainfall, along with the potential for damaging winds.

* Clearing on Tuesday into Wednesday is expected to lead to very warm and muggy conditions. Heat indices in excess of 100 F are likely.

* Severe storms are expected Wednesday into Thursday as front drops southeast across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Very active weather pattern expected to continue this week. Broad low level warm air advection exists east of surface low across south central KS. Fairly weakly capped environment across the region this afternoon, and could see an isolated storm or two through the late afternoon/early evening. Steep lapse rates in the 600-525 mb range aiding in destabilization this afternoon with ~2000 J/kg of CAPE across the region. While wind shear is relatively weak around 25 knots, could possibly get a brief strong storm through ample surface heating late this afternoon into the evening hours, though there is not much in the way of a lot of upper level support. Stratus across eastern KS into central MO has led to

Weak short wave across north central KS as of 20Z is expected to lead to the development of supercells across south central Nebraska. These storms could grow upscale into an MCS and build southeast along the thermal ridge. HRRR and RRFS have been been fairly consistent with this ideal since the 12Z runs, while the deterministic runs have really struggled coming up with a consistent solution. The 18Z HRRR has since pivoted to developing supercells across eastern KS this evening, and brings in remnants of a complex on Tuesday morning. The low level jet is initially focused across Oklahoma, but builds north in time across eastern KS into western MO after 06Z Tuesday. 18Z sounding from TOP is moist with 1.7" of precipitable water, and warm cloud depths are in the 13-14K foot range. Point is, there is a quite a bit of uncertainty on how things might evolve tonight, but potential for damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall exists.

This uncertainty continues into Tuesday with the potential for low clouds and lingering storms transitioning to very warm and muggy conditions as upper level ridge . Depending on how quickly clouds clear through the day, surface temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s and potentially lower 90s F. With dew points well into the 70s, heat indices are expected to warm into the upper 90s to lower 100 F. Tried to concentrate the heat advisory in areas that should see clearing earlier in the day allowing for better insolation.

Air you can wear continues into Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. With increasing confidence, there may be a need for heat headlines, especially with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching front. Models have been inconsistent in the timing of the front, but could see additional storms with the front and are outlooked for severe potential Wednesday into Thursday.

Additional storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night as shortwave drops into the Northern Plains this weekend, with a potential deepening surface reflection. As can be expected and with models not handling the near term well, there is a wide variety of solutions for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Largely VFR conditions were seen across the area early this evening, with MVFR ceilings around the KC metro. The main focus for tonight will be on a thunderstorm complex expected to move through the western portions of the area around 06-10z. Uncertainty exists on just how far north this complex will extend, but confidence is pretty high for flight impacts around the KC metro and points south. IFR conditions are likely under heavy rainfall, with strong wind gusts around 40 knots, possibly higher. There could be more thunderstorms behind this first round, but that remains much more uncertain. Looking towards Tuesday, dry conditions are expected, with strengthening south-soutwesterly flow, gusting around 20 to 25 knots.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MOZ028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ001>005- 011>014-020>022-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ025-057-060-103>105. Heat Advisory from noon to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105.