textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Brief warm up today ahead of much cooler conditions returning to the region this weekend.

* Light snowfall events possible Thursday and then again on Sunday morning.

* More significant precipitation event possible Tuesday night into Wednesday next week. Warmest temperatures appear to be concentrated in the near surface layer, so precipitation type looks to be rain or snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A brief warm up is expected today as northwest flow becomes more westerly and 925 hpa temperatures warm 5-7 C throughout the day. With snow observations across the region starting to hint as some signs or compaction and curing, started with the 50th percentile for model output for highs, but hedged temperatures slightly warmer in the west where warming aloft will be more pronounced under mostly clear skies.

Clouds will quickly be on the increase tonight as short wave over northern California this morning pushes east into the Central Rockies and leeside troughing occurs over eastern Colorado. As this system deepens, weak flow in the near surface layer is expected to become easterly this evening becoming more northeasterly as the trough approaches the region. Some mid level moisture in the vicinity of 600 mb is expected to interact with mid level frontogenesis creating a light band of snow that will extend from eastern Nebraska through southwest Iowa and potentially into northern Missouri. Both the NAM and ECMWF have light snow accumulations in a band from Grant City to Macon, while the GFS is a bit drier. Have added mentionable pops across far northern Missouri along this band, but kept pops confined to areas north of highway 36 as dry air near the surface looks to be more pronounced the further south one gets. With the cold air advection across the region Thursday, temperatures look to return to around 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Arctic high pressure builds into the Northern Plains on Friday pushing south into Texas by Saturday evening. With the high remaining to the west, near surface northerly flow remains keeping temperatures unseasonably cool. With the ridge passing by Friday night, light winds and mostly clear skies may allow temperatures to fall back below zero overnight. If temperatures are able to fall below zero overnight, LREF ensemble is suggesting 30-50% of windchills eclipsing -15 F Saturday morning- creating the potential for another cold weather advisory.

Short wave over the Pacific NW Friday night is expected to plunge south east Saturday potentially leading to a light snow event across the region Sunday morning. Greatest potential for accumulations continues to be focused across northern Missouri, though this is expected to be a more widespread affair than Thursday.

Warmer conditions are expected early next week as upper level ridge across the west shifts east allowing temperatures to return to normal levels Monday and Tuesday next week. We'll need to keep an eye on a series of phased waves that may bring precipitation to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Right now, forecast soundings suggest the warmest temperatures in the troposphere will be in the near surface layer, favoring either rain or snow as a precipitation type vs a wintry mix.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions with light westerly winds. Flow becomes easterly this evening as low pressure develops in eastern Colorado and builds southeast tonight into Thursday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.