textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures today.

- Cold front moves through tomorrow morning, bringing in cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday. A region wide freeze is likely both Thursday night and Friday night.

- Dry conditions are expected to persist through at least Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Current H5 analysis shows west northwesterly flow in place over the region, with a shortwave trough traversing east southeast out of the northern High Plains. At the surface, a subtle pseudo stationary front is draped west to east near the Interstate 70 corridor, with a 1022 mb high centered over Iowa. This has resulted in clear skies, light and variable winds, and temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s as of 2 PM. Some patchy fog may be possible early Wednesday morning, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

The aforementioned mid/upper shortwave trough across the northern High Plains will quickly move eastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday morning and dig further south into the Central CONUS by Wednesday afternoon, with the accompanying surface low moving eastward across Iowa and into north central Illinois. This will send a cold front through the CWA tomorrow morning, with winds turning westerly and eventually northwesterly. Winds will increase by late Wednesday morning, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph through mid afternoon. Cold air advection behind the front will yield cooler temperatures for tomorrow, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should begin to relax by tomorrow evening as the pressure gradient slackens, and light winds and mostly clear skies Wednesday night into Thursday morning should allow for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A reinforcing shot of even colder and drier air should move north to south through the region Thursday morning, yielding highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Thursday afternoon. With light winds and mostly clear skies again Thursday night, the entire CWA is forecast to dip below freezing early Friday morning. Due to the growing season being over, we will not be issuing any frost/freeze products for portions of the CWA that have not received a freeze yet. Surface high pressure builds in directly overhead on Friday, with the region still under the influence of the deep closed mid/upper low over the Great Lakes and northerly flow aloft. Highs for Friday should only reach the mid 40s to lower 50s, with another freeze expected CWA wide Friday night into Saturday morning.

At least marginally warmer temperatures are probable this weekend into early next week, but just how much warmer is unknown at this time. NBM MaxT 25th and 75th percentiles for MCI on Sunday is 48 degrees and 59 degrees, respectively, with 49 and 61 degrees, respectively, for Monday. Some guidance wants to bring a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Sunday, which will bring in some chance PoPs (20% to 30%).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals under clear skies with light and variable winds. These conditions should continue through today and into tonight. By early Wednesday morning, a cold front will move through the region, turning winds westerly, and eventually northwesterly with wind gusts increasing up to 25 knots by around 15z/16z Wednesday morning. VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.