textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Seasonal to seasonally cool conditions through the work week and to start the weekend - Normal highs predominantly in the upper 60s

* Periodic rain chances though the weekend - Current best near-term chances tomorrow/Thursday

* Some warming temperatures and more widespread rain chances into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Everyone take a deep breath... inhale ... exhale. Much welcome, after the series of stormy days, cooler and quieter conditions tend to prevail over the next handful of days.

Currently, surface high pressure continues to gradually work into the area from the W/NW. This will allow existing northerly winds to lighten/ease and go more variable in nature tonight before establishing SW/W tomorrow morning as it drifts E/SE out of Missouri. Underneath ideal/efficient nocturnal cooling conditions, overnight lows should be bottom out on the chilly side with many areas into the low 40s if not upper 30s. Would not be shocked if a few rural low lying/cold air pooling prone areas even see a bit of frost.

Within the more NW to N mid-upper level flow currently established over the central CONUS, we will see a series of shortwaves drift through that may aide in providing some opportunities of light rain or light rain showers over the next handful of days. The first of which will come tomorrow/Thursday with a leading surface cool front. Various synoptic and hi-res guidance continue to show lighter QPF within an environment that yields just a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. As this frontal boundary and shortwave drop through, expectation is for some AM light rain/shower potential with a general uptick in coverage as we work past the lunch hour and into peak heating/mixing. A few rumbles of thunder and brief heavier showers will certainly be possible as well.

Low confidence, but also low impact, chances for additional rain/showers are seen depicted in various synoptic scale guidance Friday evening and again Sunday into Monday. Both instances are not wholly different than the opportunity Thursday in that weak/reinforcing cool frontal boundaries dropping out of Iowa/Nebraska concurrent with mid-upper level shortwaves. Limited overall moisture and the cooler/less substantial thermal profiles keep conditions such that showers to a few rumbles of thunder are the current expectations. Underscoring this another way, current NBM guidance shows nary a PoPs response Friday evening and predominantly only slight chances Sunday into Monday. The latter time period would carry a more supportive environment for thunderstorms with more notable moisture return beginning ahead of a sizable SW CONUS cutoff low. Throughout much of this time temperatures remain seasonable to seasonably cool, in the upper 50s to 60s. Warming into the 70s begins to return Sunday into Monday with more substantial southwesterly flow becoming established over the southern and central Plains.

More notable storm chances and generally unsettled weather are seen after Monday as the SW CONUS cutoff low and more notable northern stream trough approach the region. This points to our next opportunity for appreciable rain and thunderstorms coming in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Plenty of variability in the timing and specifics, so suffice it to say showers/thunderstorms possible as the southern stream shortwave and surface low lift into the area and then along an approaching cold frontal boundary with the northern stream wave and surface low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conds will prevail thru the TAF pd with just a few high clouds expected thru 14Z. Aft 15Z...bkn-ovc clouds btn 5-7kft are expected thru the remainder of the pd. There is the chc for a few lgt tsra at the TAF sites (except STJ) btn 22Z-01Z so have included a prob30 in the TAF durg that pd. Winds thru 14Z will be lgt and vrb...before picking up out of the SW/WSW around 10kts aft 14Z. A cold front will drop thru the TAF sites btn 17Z-21Z shifting winds to the NW around 10kts (with poss gusts to 20kts at STJ). Aft 22Z-01Z winds will become northerly and diminish to 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.