textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions today with well above normal normal temperatures and gusty south winds to 30-40 mph. Elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday with relative humidity values in the teens.

- Chances for precipitation a few showers or isolated thunderstorm tonight (20-40%), additional precipitation chances Thursday (20-40%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Main concerns for today will revolve around gusty winds and related elevated fire weather danger. Today an upper level shortwave will move into the central Plains. An associated cold front will develop over the western Plains this morning and move into the central Plains today. This will act to tighten the pressure gradient across the area. This enhanced WAA in the form of gusty southerly winds to 30-40 MPH will drive highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s. While these above normal temperatures and gusty winds will lead to elevated fire weather concerns, relative humidity will only fall into the 40 to 50 percent range this afternoon which will keep fire danger from reaching critical thresholds. Tonight, the upper level shortwave will move from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest dragging an attendant front through the area. Moisture will be very meager with this front but forcing may be strong enough to produce a few showers or isolated thunderstorm as some weak elevated instability will be available. Behind the front on Wednesday, downslope westerly flow will again aid in driving highs into the mid 60s to lower 70s. It will also usher in much lower dewpoints dropping into the 20s Wednesday afternoon. This will yield RH values in the teens. However, unlike today winds will not be gusty and are forecast to remain between 10-15 mph so again, fire weather concerns will be elevated but will remain below critical thresholds. Thursday another upper shortwave will move into the central Plains forcing another cold front into the area. Moisture will again be meager with this frontal passage however, the NBM does produce a 20-40% of showers along and north of the Missouri River. However, it is of note that 00Z runs of the GFS and NAM produce very little to no precipitation with this system. What this front will do is usher in much cooler temperatures behind the front. Thursday however will still remain warm with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s across northwestern Missouri, where the front will pass earlier in the day, to near 70 across the southeastern CWA.

Cold air advection behind the front Thursday into Thursday night will bring a return to near normal temperatures with highs in the 40s Friday. Surface high pressure is progged to build into the area Friday night. A upper level trough is forecast to move into the central Plains Saturday. The GFS produced light precipitation with this feature along the I-70 corridor and south. The EC is stronger with the surface ridge of high pressure over the forecast area and shunts precipitation south of the CWA. Consequently, the NBM is holding a 20-30% chance for precipitation over the area Saturday. Regardless, temperatures will remain seasonable with highs again in the 40s. A strong surface ridge builds into the area Sunday behind the system on Saturday. Weak mixing will hold highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s. The surface ridge is expected to reside over the area through Monday providing yet another cool day with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Windy VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period. Steady south winds persist through the night. A few low clouds may develop towards daybreak. Southerly winds accelerate tomorrow morning remaining gusty through much of the day. Gusts of 25-35 knots with isolated higher gusts are possible. Gusts dissipate after sunset, but sustained winds look to remain above 10-15 knots. Precipitation potential has decreased with around 10-15 percent probabilities from 02-06Z Wednesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.