textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Far above normal temperatures are expected today with highs across the region ranging from near 60 to the mid 60s.

- Colder air starts moving its way in this afternoon and into Wednesday. A few light showers are possible.

- Cooler air pushes in Wednesday. Gusty winds are possible with gusts around 25-30 MPH.

- Cold conditions continue into the weekend with a passing system bringing chances for light snow Thursday night and Friday in far NE MO with additional precipitation possible into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Northwesterly flow aloft has kept the skies pretty much quiet with only some high clouds moving into the area. Steady southerly flow at the surface has sustained warm air advection pushing temperatures higher with most areas looking to reach the low to mid 60s. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of a cooler air mass to the north provides enhancement to the low level flow which helps us reach these above normal highs.

As this colder air mass approaches the region, upper level CVA combined with some weak lift from the leading edge of this air mass look to be enough to develop some isolated to scattered showers through the afternoon hours. The better setup for showers does not arrive until after sunset as the 500mb trough continues to dig into the region. This favors the development of showers south of I-70 which the greatest chances being in the Lake of the Ozarks region. Coverage of showers is expected to be isolated to scattered.

Behind these showers, cooler Canadian air settles in trending temperatures down starting at 12:00:01 AM Wednesday. Highs Wednesday will record as the 40s, but the steady flow of cold air will keep temperatures falling through the day. Decreasing clouds and sunshine will enable temperatures to rebound slightly, but they will not be able to overcome the strong cold air advection behind the front. Winds are expected to be fairly gusty; however, expectation have been tampered slightly as the axis of strongest flow has shifted north and east. Still though, gusts of 20-30 MPH are expected.

A secondary push of cold air enters the region Wednesday afternoon further lowering temperatures. Overnight lows Wednesday into Thursday bottom out around 15-20 degrees which is nearly 35-50 degrees lower than today's highs. A compressed upper level ridge rolls through Thursday ahead of another Canadian trough the progresses southward into the CONUS Thursday night. This system mainly moves through the Great Lakes only clipping portions of far NE MO with some light snowfall. There is the potential for this snowfall to expand westward with further ensemble member updates, but that appears to be heavily reliant on the track of the system as well as the post frontal environment of Tuesday/Wednesday's front (i.e will the air be too dry). So far none of these scenarios point at chances for any significant snowfall across the region towards the end of the week at this point. Further forecast updates combined with the resolution of passing systems midweek will add much more clarity to the weather picture and refine expectations.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the forecast period. High clouds linger through much of the day as winds gradually shift from SW to NW this afternoon. Some isolated gusts are possible ahead of a boundary that moves through during the evening hours. Confidence has slightly increased in isolated to scattered -RA after sunset most likely south of the MO River. Winds look to become gusty behind the showers; however, gusts will not arrive at all terminals before the end of the period. See the 12Z STJ TAF for a preview.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.