textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Continued quiet and dry weather conditions with near-normal temperatures through Monday
- Trending warmer/ above normal from Tuesday onward.
- Very small chances (10-15%) for rain in northern Missouri Thursday- Thursday night
DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Water vapor imagery early this morning shows a shortwave trough moving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes/ Southern Ontario region. This shortwave will help push a weak front southward through the area this morning. This will help reinforce the seasonable temperatures and dry airmass over the region. High pressure will settle over the region tonight into Monday, resulting continued cool overnight lows with widespread middle 40s forecast for Monday morning. With light winds, sheltered/ cold air drainage areas will see cooler temperatures, in the lower 40s.
That high pressure will shift to over the East Coast by Tuesday, with southerly flow returning for Tuesday. This warm advection is aided by increasing 500mb heights and 1000-500mb thicknesses as upper ridging builds over the western US. Given this, we'll see highs climb back above normal Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s expected. Highs return to the 80s for mid to late week, which is between 10 and 15 degrees above normal by the end of next week.
There is one timeframe when precipitation potential is trending upward. Thursday, a warm front starts to lift northward through the area. This may provide just enough lift during the day to get a few showers going. Otherwise, the better chances arrive overnight when the low-level jet kicks in and enhances lift on the nose of that jet from eastern Nebraska through northeastern Missouri. Chances still look fairly low (around 15% currently), though they are trending higher.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
River valley fog is occurring at STJ, reducing visibility to 1/4mile. This will dissipate by 14-15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with winds becoming light from the north behind a weak front moving through the area this morning.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None. KS...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.