textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms are expected to move in from the west this afternoon. Some storms could be strong to severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail.

- These showers and storms will also be capable of producing heavy rain. Flash flooding will be possible. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday morning.

- Hot and humid weather engulfs the region starting Sunday and lingers into early next week. Heat indicies increase to 100-110. An Extreme Heat Warning may be needed.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A stalled out boundary is draped across west to east across the metro this afternoon. Satellite and radar trends have pointed to some destabilization along this boundary with some more aggravated cu development. Coverage remains spotty but the environment can be categorized as a moderate instability with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg with some weak bulk shear around 30 kts. Some stronger storms could develop in these conditions and may produce some gusty winds and small hail. Chances for storms increase later this afternoon and through the evening hours as a shortwave advances in from the west with a surface low lock in step with it. Presently, this shortwave is tied to an MCS out in central KS. High res guidance has this complex sliding across our southern counties this afternoon. However, there may be additional development along the stalled boundary. The shortwaves arrival will also bring with it some better synoptic forcing and an increase to our bulk shear values. This combination may lead to strong to severe storms developing with the main threat being damaging winds and large hail. One pitfall for this forecast is the large area of cirrus blow off from the MCS out west. This could act to help stabilize the environment and lead to more of a stratiform rain event with some embedded lighting, as opposed to some of the severe weather that has been mentioned.

This evening, fueled by a enhancing low level jet with speeds up to 50 kts these storms are expected to persist through the overnight hours as the low slowly tracks across MO. The current forecasted path of the low would lead to the heaviest rainfall axis being across our southern half of our counties where our Flood Watch is still in effect. The latest HREF also supports some local flooding remains possible with the LPMM highlighting a few swaths in excess of 2".

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Friday morning the low pressure is projected to be over northeast MO leading to some lingering showers and storms. By mid day this system will have shifted out of the region with cooler northwesterly winds streaming across the area. The relief will be brief as upper level riding nudges in from the west bringing some warmer temperatures. But dewpoints should be lower leading to less muggy conditions then the previous day.

Temperatures really ramp up as we head into the weekend. A deepening trough entering the west coast leads to strong ridging over central CONUS. A surface low developing out of the Northern Plains will further enhance the southerly flow across the region leading to a hot and muggy period. Heat indicies are expected to climb into the triple digits by Sunday and linger into next week. The long nature of the heat coupled with poor recovery at night may warrant a Extreme Heat Warning.

Rain chances through the weekend are not overly favorable. The best chance looks to be initially on Saturday afternoon as a warm front lifts north. But poor agreement amongst guidance is keeping chances low around 20-30%. The rest of the period has to contend with strong warm air aloft keeping the atmosphere capped.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A stalled out boundary over the KC metro is leading to a few pop up showers to start the forecast period. Confidence is low for these showers to produce lightning initially. But as we head into the afternoon hours, probabilities increase with a shortwave and low pressure advancing out of KS. This pairing will cross the the metro leading to heavy rain and some strong to severe storms possible. The latest high res guidance would suggest that activity will start to taper off tomorrow morning with some lingering showers until late morning. Ceilings are expected to fall to MVFR with the initial onset of showers and storms and continue to descend into IFR conditions by tomorrow morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ028>032-037>040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.