textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze conditions overnight with cooling temperatures and calm winds. Frost/freeze conditions possible again Monday night and Tuesday morning.

- Clear, cooler, and dry through the weekend, with chances (30-50%) of wintry precipitation returning Monday night through Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern and warmer temperatures beginning by midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Clear conditions are in the forecast through the remainder of the weekend as amplified ridging and surface high pressure builds in. For today, gusty northwesterly winds persist areawide in the wake of the cold front that passed through yesterday, and temperatures remain cooler in the low to mid 50s areawide. Tonight, winds will die down and clouds will clear out in advance of building high pressure from the Central Plains. Radiational cooling will lead to temperatures dropping to around/below freezing across the region overnight, with guidance like the NBM and HREF honing in on high probabilities of falling below 36 degrees overnight (70-90%). These colder temperatures, in combination with lighter winds, will create conditions favorable for widespread frost development. Frost conditions may be limited in northeastern MO as a result of greater sustained winds due to the retreating surface low interacting with the oncoming surface high to generate a tighter pressure gradient over this area tonight into tomorrow morning. Regardless, with freezing temperatures overnight, sensitive vegetation will need to be protected.

Tomorrow, surface high pressure will maintain northwesterly winds and clear skies. Broad-scale subsidence with the surface high will keep mixing potential low, and winds will remain lighter through the day with temperatures climbing into the high 50s and low 60s. By Monday, an upper level trough digging over the northern Great Lakes will drape a cold front across the northern half of MO and northeastern KS, creating a gradient of high temperatures for the day ranging from the high 40s in the north to the mid 60s to the south. High pressure will build back in to the northern Plains/western Great Lakes by Monday evening, and temperatures will fall under sustained cold air advection with calming northerly winds. This will introduce another period of frost conditions across the area. In addition to this concern, our next chance (30-50%) for precipitation begins Monday evening and lasts through Tuesday across northern MO. This signal has been consistent across previous forecasts, and appears to be attributed with a convergent boundary in the low-levels. The predominant precipitation type with this signal is snow in far northern MO with temperatures below freezing, with rain/snow mix along the freezing line. The probability of seeing accumulating snow remains higher with this event (50-70%), but the probability of 1/2 inch of snow is lower (30-50%). A short amplified ridge will lift precipitation chances further north through the day Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A shortwave disturbance will keep low precipitation chances (15-30%) across northern MO and northeastern KS through the night and into Wednesday afternoon. An upper level trough progged to move across the northern CONUS will increase precipitation chances (20-40%) once again Wednesday evening along a cold frontal boundary. Precipitation chances will remain high for the remainder of the forecast period as a result of ample moisture transport from the Gulf with a subtropical high to the southeast and dynamic support from embedded shortwaves off of a closed low over the California Coast. Temperatures will rise into the mid 60s and lower 70s across the area beginning midweek.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Mid to upper-level clouds will be present for a few hours this evening but should clear with high pressure moving in, and winds diminishing after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>006-011>016-020>024-028>032-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.