textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms Expected Overnight; Heavy Rainfall Possible

- Conditional Severe Threat Thursday Afternoon; Activity May Push Further Eastward

- Near Triple Digit Heat Index Values Interstate 70 and South Thursday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

H5 short-wave trough is moving out of the eastern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Stronger surface cyclone is present over western Kansas. This will be slow to move as it is largely disconnected from any mid-level steering flow. This has setup a warm front that as of late Wednesday evening is currently stalled over eastern Kansas. Convection over the past several hours has resulted in a differential heating boundary from the Upper Midwest into the Sandhills of Nebraska, and has been able to develop some new convection heading into the overnight hours. Complicating the mesoscale view though are numerous outflow boundaries that have developed under the area upper-level divergence. Broad large-scale ascent should continue to occur as this short-wave trough move overs head, and shower/storm activity should continue overnight and through much of the morning. While there is decent CAPE ahead of these showers/storms moving in, the weaker mid-level flow away from the axis of the short-wave trough, keeping deep layer shear low, has struggled to sustain strong updrafts for an extended period of time, with most storms becoming outflow dominant in fairly short order. A few stronger cores may be possible overnight with any remaining pockets of higher CAPE, and perhaps a few isolated wind gusts around 60 MPH and or quarter-size hail may be possible with a few storms. Most of this activity will push eastward out of the forecast area before 18z. Depending on how organized activity remains, PWAT values near 2.0 inches along with deep warm-cloud processes, efficient rainfall may result in localized rainfall amounts between 1.5 and 2.0 inches, and therefore may present some hydrologic issues, including the KC metro.

Redevelopment east of Interstate 35 is possible later into the afternoon and evening, depending on where the boundary ends up. If outflow boundary production from overnight convection lingers, this may greatly alter the mesoscale environment heading into the afternoon. We may see more mid-level short-wave activity in the afternoon which could increase lift across much of the area again. However, the stronger vort maxima may move further eastward out of the area before there is sufficient time for the boundary layer to destabilize. And depending on where subsequent mid-level short-wave travel, may have localized pockets of deep layer shear to help organize convection. But if cloud-cover lingers into the middle of the afternoon across the area, this may push convection initiation further eastward or may require new activity to travel further before encountering a higher CAPE environment to strengthen.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Friday - Sunday...

Ridging will begin to build over the western Plains on Friday. Remnant troughing to slowly push eastward Friday into Saturday. A stalled frontal boundary will remain parked over the region during this time. Southerly flow south of the front will continue to pump moisture into the region as PWATs will remain in the 1.5-1.75 inches range. This moisture and lifting mechanisms will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast for Friday through most of Sunday. Over the southern half of the forecast area (south of the stalled front), we will see SBCAPE increase, which will allow for a small chance for strong storms. Main hazard with this will be gusty to damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall.

During this time, we will see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s and lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Monday - Mid Next Week...

By next week, impressive ridging will build over the central CONUS and high pressure will strengthen at the surface. These features will allow for conditions to dry out and for temperatures to increase a bit each day. Temperatures are likely to top out in the low to mid 90s mid next week. Though, dew points will remain in the mid 60s, which will keep heat indices in the upper 90s. Winds will remain light through this timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue for the next couple of hours as they work their way east with MVFR ceilings lingering until the rain ends. Winds will remain east-northeast for most of the day before rain returns again for IXD later this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.