textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

-Seasonable temperatures continue through the end of the work week.

-Precipitation chances (30-50%) return Friday but with better chances (50-70%) through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Wednesday looks to be another nice fall day with highs in the 70s across the area and air at 825mb starts to dry out leading to mostly clear skies. Dry conditions will stick around for at least one more day as the 500mb ridge over the south central US builds into our area but temperatures should stay in the mid to upper 70s as clouds build in over our area ahead of the rain in the Central Plains.

By Thursday night into Friday morning the upper-level ridge begins to move east while the surface high over Quebec continues to move east increasing our chances for rain. The falling heights at 500mb supports synoptic scale lift over strong southerly flow at the surface supports moisture advection from the Gulf. However, models keep the strong southerly flow off to our west on Friday so there is only about a 30-50% chance that areas north of I-70 will see rain with the best chances for rain staying NW. By Saturday, the strong southerly flow shifts east into our CWA and the chance of rain increases throughout the day Saturday with areas west of I-35 seeing the best chance (60-70%) for rain and decreasing chances (15-30%) for areas south of a line from Kirksville to Butler.

Rain chances will stick around for the weekend as an omega blocking pattern forms at 500mb with another low digging into the Pacific NW, a ridge over the Great Lakes, and a strong low off of the east coast with our CWA located in the trough portion of the omega block. This upper level setup coupled with the surface low sticking around to our west and the surface high to our NE keeping moist air advecting into our area we will potentially see rain sticking around through Sunday. Models have little to no instability present in our CWA for the weekend so there is little concern for severe weather, and minimal chances for thunder. Models start to bring ridging back into our area by Monday which would bring an end to the rain, however the blocking pattern at 500mb may stick around longer than models suggest which could keep rain around longer.

If the omega block does weaken by Monday, the 500mb ridge over the south central US will move into our area and could bring high temperatures back into the mid 80s with a 45-60% chance that our southern most counties could see highs above 90 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

MVFR CIGS present this morning but clouds should thin out around 15Z lifting CIGS back to VFR for the rest of the forecast period. Could see visibility drop slightly to 5SM at STJ around sunrise but not anticipating any fog this morning. Winds should stay below 10KTS out of the east through the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.