textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Early Morning Storms and Showers

- New Storm Development Possible Friday Afternoon (East of Interstate 35)

- Cooler Temperatures This Weekend With Cold Front

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Positively tilted H5 trough is present across portions of the northern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley with two distinct vort maxima. Both of these have provided enough lift and dCVA to deepen a surface cyclone across much of the Central Plains. Surface pressure falls have extended eastward into the lower Missouri River Valley. Weak thermal boundary has aided in the development of organized convection, along with enough deep layer shear that is present. Instability has been weakening during the overnight hours but there may still be enough to keep storm activity going through 09- 10z timeframe, then should start to see any organized activity break apart. A few sporadic wind gusts to around 60-70 MPH may remain possible before sunrise, as we have seen some organization when the line became oriented perpendicular to the 0-3km bulk shear vector. The first vort maxima and instability axis should exit the forecast area to the east between 15-16z late this morning. Second vort maxima will start moving across the eastern Plains this afternoon, with another shot of dCVA reinforcing surface pressure falls across the region and development of surface cyclone. A stronger cold front will develop with this surface feature and track eastward across the area through this afternoon and evening. Depending on how long convective debris lingers from the morning, we may see further destabilization east of Interstate 35 which may allow for stronger storms to develop, and perhaps isolated severe storms with 60-70 MPH winds and a few hail stones that could be around quarter sized or slightly larger. As the front pushes eastward, this activity should exit the forecast area after 01z if it develops in central Missouri this afternoon and evening. With respect to temperatures today, the cloud cover and morning convective complex adds some uncertainty, but the continued WAA should allow temperatures to easily hit the upper 80s again, with some lower 90s possible especially south of US Highway 50. During the early afternoon, dewpoint temperatures will probably hit the mid 70s for areas south. Our southern zones may see an hour or two of heat index values right around 105F. However, given the current radar and satellite trends, confidence was not high enough to issue a Heat Advisory at this time, but we will continue to monitor temperature and dewpoint trends. If there is rapid clearing on the backside of exiting convection, a heat headline may become needed south of Interstate 70.

The cold front passage will bring relief to the heat and humidity across the area through the weekend, with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s, and dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 60s. That northwesterly flow will end Sunday evening. Amplified mid- level ridge then builds over the western CONUS but pushes H5 height rises into the Central CONUS through the middle of next week. Low- level flow will turn more southerly which will begin to push temperatures back into the lower 90s by the middle of the next week. Forecast will remain mostly dry, with slight chances entering the forecast into Wednesday and Thursday next week as a disturbance attempts to drop southeastward from the Pacific Northwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Early morning showers and storms are continuing to drift off to the east. These areas of precipitation have largely moved away from the corridor of terminals, though did mention -RA at the two southernmost terminals at the beginning of the TAF period. Areas of heavier precipitation will likely drop visibilities to MVFR, potentially IFR in especially heavy downpours, although the latter will become more improbable with time as showers/storms weaken. Winds will kick up to about 10 knots out of the west behind areas of precipitation with gusts up to 20 knots this morning and early afternoon. A cold front will move through the region later this afternoon, shifting winds more out of the northwest and boosting sustained winds to 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots. Expect MVFR CIGs to move in behind the cold front after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.