textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Through Saturday

- Lower Relative Humidity Next Few Afternoons

- Most Models Keep Precipitation out 7 Day Forecast

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Strong dAVA has reinforced a surface anticyclone across the area that has skies clear this afternoon, with strong insolation and boundary layer mixing helping temperatures reach the upper 70s and lower 80s today. This will continue to be the story through Saturday, as a well amplified H5 ridge axis slowly shifts eastward, with 850mb thermal ridge axis sliding eastward. The next few afternoons will feature lower relative humidity values with afternoon mixing, and in far northwest Missouri and far northeastern Kansas. However, no notable pressure gradient will be present the next few days which will greatly limit wind gusts in our area. The stronger winds will be further west into Central Kansas. Therefore, have not issued any fire weather headlines for our counties with this forecast update. Temperature wise, Friday and Saturday are fairly locked into highs in the 80s.

Sunday, a mid-level short-wave will slightly deamplify the strong ridge and develop a surface cyclone in the Northern Rockies that will move east-southeast across the Central CONUS. Eventually this will bring a cold front at some point Sunday into Monday and lower temperatures. While there will be some lift and cloud cover development, overall moisture profile is weak, resulting in a dry forecast with respect to precipitation. Temperatures on Monday may only reach the upper 50s with the passage of this system. After this short-wave moves through, mid-level ridge axis re-amplifies with some deterministic model solutions depicting a 590dam high, which will switch the lower Missouri River Valley back to a strong WAA regime. Over the Prairie Provinces of Canada, mid-level flow may be more unsettled, and it will be battle of how far southward that can propagate with the strong H5 ridge. Even in ensemble solutions that bring the forcing far enough south, keep the moisture content low resulting in very low probabilities for any precipitation toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Quiet, VFR conditions continue to prevail across all sites. BKN/OVC200 skies will gradually clear out. Winds prevail out of the S/SW overnight, shifting CW through the day before prevailing out of the NNW/N by the afternoon before going light and variably after 00z Saturday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.