textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Significantly above normal temperatures expected through Tuesday, with near record highs possible on Monday.

- Cooler temperatures and rain chances arrive by mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Broad upper-level troughing continues to persist over the eastern CONUS with a ridge over the western CONUS. A cutoff low has been nearly stationary off the Baja Peninsula over the past day or so. Upper-level cirrus are spilling into the area over the peak of the ridge. The cirrus shield is expected to thicken through the afternoon, limiting high temperatures to the mid- to-high 40s. Northeastern MO will be a little cooler only reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s, while the far southern reaches of the CWA may tick 50F this afternoon. Surface high pressure has settled into the Great Lakes region and has brought light southeasterly winds to the area. The ridge axis will shift further east tomorrow allowing temperatures to warm into the mid-to-high 50s.

Temperatures will continue to warm on Monday as the cutoff low pushes inland and creates a more amplified ridge over the central CONUS. Light southerly winds and clear skies will allow temperatures to climb into the mid-to-high 60s with the southern portion of the area reaching 70F. The daily high temperature record at MCI on Monday is 72F, so we will be nearing that reading. NBM probabilities show a 15-20% chance of exceeding the record with the 75th percentile sitting at 70F. The daily high record at STJ is 64F, which is in larger jeopardy than MCI. The NBM 25th percentile is 66F and ensemble probabilities show a 80-85% chance of exceeding the record.

The unseasonable warmth will continue through the week, but will be tempered by the passage of a cold front Monday night into Tuesday morning. The associated shortwave and better forcing for precipitation will track across southern Canada and the northern Plains, however, there is a chance (30-45%) for showers Tuesday afternoon/evening across the southern portion of the CWA. Dry low- and mid-level air behind the front is expected to blanket the northern portion of the area, significantly lowering rain chances.

Model guidance begins to diverge following the frontal passage on Tuesday. Temperatures will remain above normal for this time of year, although ensemble guidance has a lot of spread in the 25th and 75th percentiles. Daily precipitation chances return to the forecast starting Thursday, though the chances remain low (15-30%). A few overnight snow showers may even mix in across northern MO as low temperatures fall into the 20s and low 30s, but at this range, this is anything but certain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1121 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the TAF sites through the period. Winds will continue to shift clockwise through the night and Sunday morning hours, settling out of the NW by mid-late morning. Winds will remain on the lighter side, generally to around 10kts or less through the daytime hours, then going more light and variable after 00z Monday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.