textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread measurable rainfall expected late tonight into Friday, with accumulations up to 1-2" areawide. Localized corridors up to 2-4" will be possible, which would increase flash flood concerns.

- Temperatures rise going into the weekend, with triple digit heat indices likely (60-80%) by late weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Remnant activity from this morning continues to dissipate as it moves into eastern Kansas/western Missouri. A persistent layer of dry air in the low-levels has prevented any appreciable accumulations of rainfall through the day, but some automated weather sites have reported light rain through the late morning and early afternoon. Otherwise, a persistent shield of clouds from the decaying complex of showers will prevent temperatures from rising considerably through the afternoon, keeping them within the 70s for much of the area. There is the potential for areas outside of the cloud shield to heat up more than their surroundings by a few degrees.

Current RAP analyses show the beginnings of a shortwave developing off the lee of the Rockies, which will be the focal point of our next opportunity for rain tonight. As the shortwave traverses eastward, a complex of showers/thunderstorms is forecast to form in central KS out ahead of the shortwave along an axis of dCVA/WAA. With this area of broad synoptic scale lift, stratiform rainfall is expected to overtake eastern KS/western MO a little after midnight tonight, with amounts of 1-2" expected areawide through the duration of the event. However, a sticking point with this forecast is an anomalously moist environment (PWATS 2-2.5") amidst deep warm cloud depths (>10 kft), with the potential for greater shear alongside the LLJ promoting organized thunderstorm development. If thunderstorms are able to develop, they would be highly efficient precipitation producers, which could locally exacerbate rainfall amounts. There is some hint of this in probabilistic guidance, with higher pockets of 1-hour accumulations in the NBM and swaths of up to 5" in the 24- hour HREF LPMM. With any higher rainfall amounts, localized hydrologic issues/flooding would become a greater concern. However, with less confidence in the exact placement of the heaviest axis of precipitation, this will be something that will need to be monitored as the event evolves. Additionally, rain is expected to persist through the day tomorrow as the shortwave continues progressing eastward, which will contribute to higher totals overall for the duration of the event.

As the shortwave progresses out of the area through Saturday, the greater axis of precipitation will shift off towards the southeast as we enter the lee side of the shortwave. Upper-level ridging is forecasted to build back in through the weekend as surface high pressure slides off to the southeast, bringing back warm, humid conditions across the area and drying the forecast out. Heat indices are forecast to reach the triple digits once again, with probabilities of exceeding heat advisory criteria (105 degF) increasing to 60-80% by Sunday/Monday. With this continued threat of excessive heat, heat headlines will need to be considered within the next few shift cycles. Beyond the renewed heat concerns, there is some potential for precipitation as we ride along the outer fringes of the upper-level ridge past the weekend. Presently, any threat of appreciable weather appears to remain off towards the north/northeast. However, with some deviation in deterministic guidance in the synoptic solution of the ridge's position, this trend will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder of the day today. Presently, some -SHRA persists to the west of terminals from this morning. Have left in a PROB30 group through 20z to account for remnant showers as they gradually dissipate through the day. Else, expecting the next significant impact to terminals overnight into tomorrow morning with a weather system entering from the west around 9z. Guidance has been variable with the onset of weather with this system, but confidence is still present in weather impacting all terminals through the remainder of the forecast period. Guidance also indicates lowering ceilings/visibilities with the system, so have included a line of approximate timing for MVFR ceilings and lowering visibilities with heavier rainfall.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.