textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* An active weather pattern is expected this evening through the weekend and into early next week.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

* Although several rounds of storms area expected Friday through the weekend, the severe threat looks low at this time.

* The next threat for severe storms will come Monday night into Tuesday, but uncertainty remains high.

* Several consecutive days of rain could lead to minor river/areal flood concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Current 500-hPa analysis shows largely zonal flow across the central CONUS with a closed low digging down the Pacific Coast and a trough lifting into eastern Canada. At the surface, a stationary front has settled across northern MO with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s south of the front. A 25-35 kt LLJ has been persistent through the day thus far and in conjunction with the front, has forced a few showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS. As the afternoon progresses, moisture return will result in 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE developing along and north of the front. The LLJ will intensify this evening resulting in shear values of 40-50 kts creating a setup for possible severe weather as a shortwave moves through the pattern. Storms will begin to develop in southeastern NE and northeastern KS late this afternoon and will move into northwestern MO between 6-7pm this evening. Storms will primarily be elevated in nature resulting in the main threat being large hail, however, a damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out, particularly in any storms that are able to move off the front and become surface based. The front will slowly shift southward tonight allowing showers and storms to build through the area overnight. The primary severe threat will be north of I-70 and west of I-35 with MUCAPE values diminishing as storms move southward through the night.

The front will again stall out tomorrow morning, this time across southern MO. The front will continue to be a focal point for showers and storms on Friday as several more quick moving shortwaves progress through the pattern, so the southern portion of the CWA will likely (70-80%) remain wet into the afternoon. However, the best instability will be concentrated south of the area, so the severe threat in our area is low. With the front passing through tonight, temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with highs in the low-to-mid 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

By Friday night, the closed low that is currently over the Pacific Coast will open into a shortwave and lift northeast across the Rockies. This will create southwesterly flow across the Central Plains as ridging develops over the Mississippi River Valley. The front will once again cross the area, this time lifting northward as a warm front and will again bring widespread shower and storm chances (60-70%) on Saturday. WAA induced showers and storms will be prevalent again on Sunday with 60-80% chances areawide through the day, however the severe threat will remain low through the weekend.

Another trough is expected to dig down the West Coast through the weekend and begin to eject inland by Monday bringing our next chance for severe weather to the area Monday night. A lot of uncertainty remains in the timing of the system, however, 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE are expected to develop Monday afternoon with deep layer shear values increasing through the evening as a mid-level jet streak begins to nose into the area. As of now, the timing seems to be more of a late evening to overnight threat, however, that may be subject to change as more details iron themselves out over the coming days. The severe threat continues on Tuesday as the trough progresses across the central CONUS, with a cold front finally bringing an end to this round of storms by Wednesday.

Given the multiple rounds of showers and storms expected through midweek next week, flooding may be of concern. Most areas will see 1-3" of rainfall spread across several days, so the threat remains fairly low at this time, however, it is something to keep an eye on over the coming days.

Temperatures through the extended will continue to be warm. Highs will return to the mid-to-upper 70s this weekend as the front lifts north through the area. Monday and Tuesday look to be the warmest days with highs in the low 80s before a return to the mid-to-upper 70s by midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Rain showers expected to persist through early morning at all four terminals with low-end potential for thunder/lightning through 08Z. CIGs are expected to fall to IFR behind lingering rain showers. KSTJ and KMCI should return to MVFR CIGs by the late morning and afternoon respectively, but KIXD and KMKC will likely hover right at IFR CIGs through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds to become increasingly north/northeasterly over the course of the day.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.