textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight warmup is forecast as this week progresses, with high temperatures increasing by 1-2 degrees each day, reaching the mid- to upper 90s by the weekend.

- Daily peak heat index values near or just above 100 degrees are forecast Friday through Sunday.

- Significant rainfall is not expected over the next seven days, but there is small chance (15-25%) of showers during the heat of the day Wednesday and Thursday south of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Little has changed from previous forecast cycles.

Highs today in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, with partly cloudy skies and light easterly winds. Dew points in the mid-60s are allowing for heat indices near the measured temperature. Lows tonight in the mid- to upper 60s, with some patchy fog along and north of the US Highway 36 corridor overnight and early Tuesday morning.

Each day this week will be 1-2 degrees warmer than the previous day, gradually warming into the mid- to upper 90s by Friday, with Saturday currently forecast to be the warmest day of this week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Friday-Sunday suggests moderate to high confidence in anomalously warm temperatures, with the low accompanying Shift of Tails values (0, actually) suggesting an extreme event is not likely at this time. The ENS members are the warmest of the three global ensembles as well, which increases confidence that the warmest potential outcome is still within a normal seasonal range for mid-July.

As high pressure slides east Wednesday and Thursday, we return to southerly flow and advect a slightly more moist air mass into the region. Dew points will push into the low 70s south of Interstate 70 Wednesday-Saturday, and this is where heat indices will be highest, near/just above 100 degrees on Friday/Saturday. The increase in moisture on Wednesday and Thursday will bring an associated 15-25% PoP as well to areas along and south of Interstate 70 as the area sits along the northern periphery of some enhanced upper-level energy. Any showers or scattered thunderstorms would be limited in coverage and would not be severe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR TAFs through the period. High pressure remains NE of the area with generally easterly winds 4-8 kts through the period. Some fair weather cu with cloud bases 3-5kft continue this afternoon, dissipating a few hours after sunset. Cloud coverage may occasionally increase from SCT to BKN with the most dense development, but should overall remain transient enough to avoid ceilings.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.