textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures continue into early next week.

- Chances (50-70%) for rain continue to increase through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The upper-level pattern is currently comprised of broad ridging over the western CONUS and a trough positioned over the eastern CONUS. The tropics are currently fairly active with 2 Pacific storms, Rachel to the north and Simon to the south (more on Simon later in the discussion), and Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf. At the surface, a weak low-pressure system is moving northeast across NE with a surface boundary lifting north through central IA and northeastern MO. On the warm (south) side of the boundary, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is present in conjunction with 30 kts of deep layer shear. Storms have initiated across central IA along this surface boundary and at the nose of a 25-30 kt LLJ and have been producing marginally severe hail over the past couple of hours (roughly 10p-1a). Storm motions are generally southeast, which is parallel to the boundary (and MUCAPE gradient). As storms approach the MO/IA border, they will be moving into a less favorable environment with less support for storm longevity. While the current expectation is for storms to stay north and east of the CWA, the MUCAPE gradient is currently situated through the far northeastern corner of the CWA, so precipitation cannot be fully ruled out, but severe weather is not expected to continue south of the MO/IA border.

The unseasonable warmth that has been present over the past couple of days is expected to continue with temperatures this morning only expected to fall into the low 60s. The aforementioned ridge over the western CONUS will slide east today bringing mid-level height rises to the Central Plains supportive of temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Areas in central MO may even make a run at 90F. These values are 15-20 degrees above what is normal for this time of year (normal is a high of 70F in Kansas City, 68F in Kirksville, and 70F in Sedalia). These temperatures will persist through the weekend and into early next week, thanks to the ridge stalling in its eastward progression as Isaias gets absorbed into the flow. Aside from some high-level clouds across central MO, the impacts of Isaias will stay to the east of the CWA and the forecast remains dry.

Model guidance diverges Tuesday through the end of the week bringing uncertainty to the forecast. Hurricane Simon is forecast to make landfall along the west coast of Mexico (near Guadalajara) Saturday night into Sunday morning. The moisture associated with this system will then continue north and eventually make its way into the Central Plains by mid-week. However, there are discrepancies as to when exactly that plume arrives. The quicker solutions (deterministic GFS and ECMWF and the European ensemble) have the moisture arriving Tuesday with precipitation chances increasing Tuesday afternoon/evening, while the slower solutions (GEFS and Canadian ensemble) bring the moisture into the area on Wednesday. When this remnant moisture actually arrives will dictate temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday with the slower solution yielding less cloud cover and warmer temperatures, while the faster solution points to cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances. LREF guidance currently indicates that there is a 40-60% chance of exceeding 80F on Tuesday and Wednesday with a ~15 degree spread from the 25th to 75th percentiles (73F vs 88F respectively for the KC Metro). To summarize all of this, there is a plume of moisture that is expected to overspread the Central Plains mid- week next week. When it arrives, precipitation chances will increase to 50-70%. Until it does arrive, temperatures will remain 15-20 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the TAF period. Light southerly winds are expected to become gusty out of the SSW through the morning. Gusts should subside this evening.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.