textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet, cooler weather to close out an active week.

- Next opportunity for active weather overnight Saturday through Sunday, with increasing concerns for severe/hydro impacts.

- Around seasonally normal temperatures through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

In the wake of the cold front that pushed through late yesterday, conditions across the area will remain cooler and drier through the day today. There is some chance (15-30%) for light rain showers across the area, with adequate mid-level moisture invigorated by a shortwave impulse. However, with relatively dry low-levels post- frontal passage, not overly confident that rain showers will be vigorous enough to have much of an impact at the surface. Have included mentions of sprinkles in the forecast with this thought in mind, as well as light rain showers to account for anything that's able to reach through the drier low layers of the atmosphere. Persistent CAA and northerly flow, coupled with cloud cover through most of the day areawide, will contribute to lower highs tomorrow in the mid-upper 70s. As clouds clear out from the north later in the day, there's the potential for temperatures to rise some as surface heating takes effect in those areas. However, generally low confidence (10-15%) in breaking the 80s tomorrow. Friday looks much the same, with a small disturbance increasing PoPs (30-50%) generally south of I-70 through Saturday.

Going into Saturday, the focal point of any severe concerns has effectively shifted westward with subsequent forecasts. As high pressure slides off towards the east, a shortwave trough will eject off the Rockies. As this disturbance traverses eastward through the day, a surge of instability out ahead of the disturbance will prompt thunderstorm development that gradually evolves upscale into an MCS, which is expected to impact our forecast area overnight into Sunday. Conditions remain relatively favorable for continued storm sustenance as it moves into eastern KS/western MO, with strong effective bulk shear along the surging LLJ and ample MLCAPE despite marginal SBCAPE, alongside sufficient mid-level lapse rates. As storms progress further eastward through the night, primary concerns would be damaging winds across our area, with an isolated tornado along the leading edge possible from enhanced low-level SRH through the LLJ. The primary concern for Saturday night/Sunday morning, though, is excessive rainfall/flash flooding. As the MCS progresses eastward and continued storm development on the surging front is favored, the complex will tap into an environment characterized by anomalously high PWATs at/around 2" with surging south/southwesterly flow out ahead of it, indicating very efficient rainfall. Deterministic guidance has already started painting 2-3" of rainfall across the area as the complex pushes through, with probabilistic guidance indicating as high as a 10-25% chance of exceeding 2 inches over 6 hours in northwestern MO/northeastern KS. This approaches current 6-hourly flash flood guidance across those northwestern tiers of counties. Coupled with antecedent dry conditions across this area over the previous few days, this could lead to more water resistant soil, which could exacerbate flashiness under excessive rainfall. On the opposite end of the spectrum, excessive rainfall in areas that may see rainfall on Friday will have to contend with saturated soils creating enhanced runoff with more robust rainfall, which will also contribute to enhanced flashiness. With these factors in mind, future forecasts will need to continue to monitor the trend to evaluate its severity and persistence, especially as more CAM forecasts enter that time period.

The complex will push across our forecast area through the day Sunday, gradually shifting concerns of excessive rainfall towards the east through the day before clearing out of our area by Sunday night. Temperatures are expected to climb back into the 80s by Saturday, before cooling back down to the 70s Sunday into Monday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

As the shortwave trough and associated storm complex moves off towards the east, PoPs will clear behind amplified ridging Monday through Tuesday. By Wednesday, an upper-level trough will dig down from the Central Plains, with an associated cold frontal boundary draping across the area and increasing PoPs through the end of the forecast period. At the synoptic scale, there is some variation in forecast solutions over our area by deterministic guidance. This isn't atypical to see in the extended forecast, especially under the zonal/northwest flow regime we appear to find ourselves under with ridging over the southwest CONUS and general troughing out to the north and east. Future forecast iterations will need to see greater consistency in solutions realized before any definitive statements can be made about weather in the extended period. Otherwise, high temperatures are expected to generally remain around the 80s, with pleasant overnight lows in the high 50s/low 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals. Watching some elevated rain showers off in northern Missouri, not confident that these will produce prevailing light rain at terminals due to dry low- levels, so have elected for a PROB30 mention during the early morning into the afternoon. If light showers do occur at terminals, not expected any impacts to visibility or ceilings. Otherwise, expecting cloud ceilings to clear out around 20-22z, with generally northwesterly winds becoming variable around 3-4z tonight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.