textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain/showers continue to generally wind down N to S over the area remainder of today.

- Additional light rain/showers may be possible over night into early Wednesday. Mainly western areas between Highway 36 and Highway 50

* Cool through Wednesday before warmer temperatures begin their return Thursday onward.

* Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. Chances for any strong to severe appear low in coming days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A wet and soggy day for a good chunk of the forecast area today. Surface boundary has and continues to gradually sag southward, currently residing over far southern Missouri. Isentropic analysis nicely shows air mass/moisture overriding the surface front and wrapping into the larger low level system. This and some very weak instability have resulted in the persistent and slowly southward sagging showers. All of the above has also prevented appreciable warming for many, with temperatures still in the upper 40s to low 50s in areas of precipitation. Counter intuitively, Northern Missouri will be warmest locations of the day as they have been rain free much of the day. Overall precipitation activity to continue to ease and drift southward with the low level boundaries and advection of deeper dry air mass.

However, there will be another chance at some light rain/showers late overnight into Wednesday morning. An area of elevated (~700mb) convergence concurrent with ongoing isentropic lift below will attempt to nose into the area. May be aided by some shortwave impulse, but larger wave appears ill timed (slow/later). It is possible for some very weak instability within this elevated area with borderline lapse rates above and would be the most likely scenario for anything appreciable reaching the ground. Otherwise, soundings and lift depictions suggest it would be difficult to appreciably precipitate. Best chances over western forecast area, largely between Highways 36 and 50. Larger northern stream shortwave trough drops through the flow later Wednesday, with bulk of lift/any additional precipitation chances anticipated to just pass SW. Trailing surface high ushers in reinforcing dry air to the larger area. The lack of WAA keeps temperatures below normal Wednesday, predominantly forecast in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Warming trend returns Thursday into the weekend SS/S surface flow prevailing much of the time. This tends to push temperatures a handful of degrees warmer each day Thursday/Friday/Saturday and topping out in the low 80s by Saturday. Some tempered expectations may be warranted Friday though, as deterministic and ensemble guidance in fair agreement on a shortwave within the mid-upper level may provide a few showers/thunder opportunities. Another, more robust, shortwave is also well depicted within broad guidance Sunday and too would provide another opportunity for some showers/storms and temperatures easing back a few degrees. Currently, Gulf moisture return is ill timed/not open, so this too appears as more of a shower/non-severe thunder situation. Warming then picks back up into at least early work week as we see broader mid level height rises and warmer 850mb temps building into portions of the Central Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Post frontal cloud cover and drizzle will remain possible through the remainder of the evening, but most cloud bases will remain at VFR with light winds. Another round of rain showers is possible Wednesday morning, but VFR conditions are still expected.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.