textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued severe storms during the afternoon/evening. Primary hazards include damaging winds, hail, and heavy rainfall.

- Flood Watch in effect tonight through tomorrow morning with heavy rainfall overnight. Some uncertainty remains owing to current activity influencing later potential.

- Drier, hotter weather through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Presently, a complex of storms is ongoing across northern MO. Very efficient rainfall rates (up to 2-3 inches an hour) have been occurring with this line of storms, and short-fuse hydrologic products have been put out for the potential for flooding/flash flooding along this line of storms. Overall progression of the complex has remained slow during the late morning/early afternoon, possibly owing to parallel upwind vectors/steering winds. However, as the afternoon has progressed, the complex has become more progressive with greater cold pooling within the stratiform precipitation region towards the northwest. With ample instability and sufficient effective shear, organized convection will continue with an associated risk for severe weather. Already there has been a downburst observed with the complex, and with stronger, organized updrafts alongside efficient precip rates, the potential for damaging winds/hail in association with precip loading is greater.

An outflow boundary has ejected out ahead of this complex of storms, and is currently progressing to the southeast. Current meso-a shows that the capping inversion has been effectively eroded off this way, with high effective shear (40-45 kts) and no shortage of instability (2000-2500 J/kg MUCAPE) as a result of quick clearing behind this morning's activity. Further destabilization is still possible out ahead of this activity, with satellite imagery showing a slot of clear air extending up towards Putnam/Schuyler counties. The greatest confidence in a severe threat exists along this outflow boundary as it provides lift within an unstable environment and continues organized convective development through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening. However, if the outflow outruns primary storms, their ability to remain surface based and continue tapping into instability out towards the southeast will be limited. Primary hazards with this activity will continue to be damaging winds/hail and heavy rainfall. There is additionally still some potential for discrete storm development within the warm sector ahead of storms, but confidence in timing/placement is not as high as with the ongoing activity.

Within the primary complex of storms, predominant storm motion appears to be following environmental steering winds off towards the east/northeast, with a tendril of higher reflectivity cores developing outward along a nose of low-level WAA. As storms begin following the environmental flow, the potential for training convection lessens, but efficient rainfall rates will still lead to heavy rainfall/localized hydrologic impacts. The ambient environment still remains favorable for continued severe development (good effective bulk shear/instability), which increases confidence in this line continuing to impact northern Missouri through the remainder of the day as convection remains organized. Primary hazards remain damaging wind/hail with this complex.

Going into the evening/overnight, a signal for the development of a band of storms across central Missouri still appears plausible. There will be some influence from the residual outflow boundaries from today's activity that will dictate where convergence sets up and prompts training convection overnight. With the environment looking to continue remaining favorable for efficient precipitation (PWATS 1.5-2", long skinny CAPE), have elected to go with a Flood Watch for counties in central Missouri, with the thought that this headline will need to be adjusted going into the evening with latest guidance/better grasp on the evolution of the environment in the short term. Deterministic guidance has been painting amounts of 1.5- 2" along this axis of precipitation, with low end chances (15-30%) of exceeding 2 inches of total rainfall along this corridor.

Overnight activity looks to persist along the vort max of the retreating upper-level trough. High PWATs near 2 inches, deep warm cloud layers, and a vertical profile characterized by long, skinny CAPE will continue to promote heavy rainfall with any remnant activity, as well as lightning with residual MUCAPE. Despite greater instability and better shear profiles residing further to the south through the day tomorrow, residual instability could prompt stronger updrafts in any organized convection, which could bring an associated hazard of strong winds with any precip loading in thunderstorms. The upper-level ridge situated over the western half of the CONUS will build in behind the retreating trough, and provide us with a drier forecast as activity is effectively blocked off towards the south. Due to the position of the upper-level ridge over the Plains as opposed to the southeast, we will not see the same deep, sustained southerly flow as we did with our most recent heat wave, limiting our humidity and keeping our heat indices lower. However, even with lower heat indices, our high temperatures reaching into the 90s through the early week will keep things uncomfortable. The upper-level ridge looks to persist through late in the week before it is gradually chipped away by embedded shortwaves. However, late in the week, synoptic guidance has greater deviation in their solutions of this breakdown in the upper-level trough.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd with sct-bkn clouds btn 3-4kft expected thru 03Z-04Z...aft which sct cigs around 10kft are expected thru 08Z-09Z. Aft 09Z...sct-bkn high clouds are fcst. Winds will be out of the N/NNE between 3-8kts thru the pd.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ044>046-054. KS...None.