textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and Windy Tuesday; Elevated Fire Weather Concerns

- Temperatures Above Normal This Week

- Rain Expected Wednesday Night through Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Tuesday through Late Friday Night:

Present high pressure will continue propagating off towards the southeast, with a clipper over the northern Plains beginning to dig southward towards the Great Lakes. The subsequent tightening of the pressure gradient at the surface will increase sustained southwesterly winds, which will aid in the transport of warm, dry air in conjunction with a developing surface low over the OK panhandle. Combined with wind gusts around 30-40 mph, there is an elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday, especially towards central MO. As the clipper progresses into the Great Lakes, a cold front will gradually work its way through the area going into the evening, introducing increased cloud cover and calming winds going into the evening. Wednesday will see a slight cooldown in temperatures with increased CAA behind a building surface high and increasingly northerly winds. Wednesday evening, a shortwave ejecting off the Rockies will dig down towards the Plains, bringing with it our next opportunity (50-60%) for precipitation.

Questions still remain regarding the potential for mixed precipitation/snow with the system, as well as the overall timing and placement of precipitation. Deterministic models are still somewhat varied in their placement of precipitation, but are increasingly favoring areas in northeastern MO and beyond for the greatest precipitation potential. Probabilistic guidance like the LREF also place greater QPF amounts further northeast in their mean 6-hourly precipitation. Anticipating primarily rainfall with the event with warmer temperatures out ahead of the shortwave, but as the shortwave passes through and cold air filters in behind it, there is the potential for rain/snow mix to occur in northern MO. The NBM indicates a low chance for snow with the event, but any snowfall will be brief and is not expected to accumulate if it does occur. The latest run of the GFS still scours out precipitation behind the shortwave a lot faster than models like the ECWMF, leaving some uncertainty regarding when precipitation will end, which could additionally impact the potential for mixed precipitation through the night. With this uncertainty still remaining, will need to look at subsequent forecast runs to see if there is better agreement between models to increase confidence and clarity with these remaining questions.

After the passage of this shortwave, temperatures will remain slightly cooler, though still above average through Thursday as surface high pressure gradually builds in from the southwest. By Friday, strong southwesterly winds at the low levels will increase temperatures to the mid 60s and low 70s to end out the week, before surface high pressure over the northern Plains brings temperatures back down through Saturday. As of now, high uncertainty exists with this temperature trend. The NBM 25th and 75th percentiles range from a max temperature of 52 degF to 60 degF across north-central MO by the afternoon on Saturday, with a sharp gradient of temperature forecasted across north-central MO by deterministic models.

Saturday Through Next Week Tuesday:

Saturday afternoon through the start of the next work week will feature a stronger surface anticyclone that moves southward from Canada into the northern CONUS, pushing a strong cold front southward. Current available model guidance in the extended is greatly varied in the propagation speed of the anticyclone, as well as the placement of the cold front. This is resulting in a large spread of temperature outcomes for Saturday afternoon, with 25th- 75th percentile spread of around 13F. By Sunday Night, the boundary should shift completely south of the forecast area, resulting in temperatures that are closer to normal for the end of February and the first week of March. Unsure at this time of the moisture content that will be left, but as the surface anticyclone pushes a cold front southward, convergence will be fairly strong, which may produce some precipitation, and potentially a rain-snow mix depending on the how the front develops. Ensemble probabilities are holding onto a 30-40 percent chance for measurable precipitation Sunday and into Monday of next week. Mid-level flow during this time may be zonal, meaning kinematic support above the surface thermal boundary may be lacking.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Strong low-level jet is expected during the overnight hours resulting in LLWS for few hours prior to sunrise. Tuesday morning and afternoon will feature a strong pressure gradient bringing southwest wind gusts between 25 to 30kts across the area for most of the afternoon. The winds should diminish late Tuesday evening. Passing cloud cover is expected but ceilings are forecast to remain VFR through the 06z TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.