textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and Humid weather continues through Saturday with heat indicies in the 100-105+ range.

- Scattered storms moved ENE across the area this afternoon. Severe potential is low but lightning is a concern for any outdoor activities.

- Additional storms move across northwest into central Missouri overnight and Saturday morning. After a lull in activity during the daytime, redevelopment is expected in the evening roughly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Hail or wind is possible with a low severe risk, along with lightning a concern for any outdoor activities. Pockets of heavy rain are also possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Several mesoscale features are influencing convection across northwest and western Missouri today. Convection across Iowa overnight laid out an outflow boundary across northern Missouri this morning. By late morning convection began to develop along the boundary across northwest Missouri. At the same time, convection across Kansas pushed east. These two areas of convection met and merged in west-central Missouri early this afternoon. Uncapped 3000+ J/kg SBCAPE has allowed storms to persist as the ride along the remnant outflow boundaries across the area, though little shear has prevented more organized convection. The line of storms has remained sub-severe but collapsing updrafts as the convection fades has resulting in a handful of report of 40-50 mph gusts.

Meanwhile, agitated cumulus is developing in the vicinity of a weak surface low across eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. This convection will swing into northwest Iowa late overnight and through Saturday morning. Wind is the primary concern with this convection with good cold pool development and plenty of available instability. The current convection is laying out an outflow boundary along the I- 70 corridor which may provide the an early indication of where this afternoon convection will reinitialize, in tandem with the morning convection and associated outflow. After an expected lull through the day, afternoon convection is anticipated along these remnant outflow boundaries. If the atmosphere is able to recover after the morning convection then a deeply unstable environment will setup with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates. There is little shear available to help organize storms with only around 20kts through 0-6 km. Strong winds with any developing cold pool will be the main severe hazard tomorrow, along with lightning. PWATS approach 2" and storms will likely be efficient rain producers. Overall convective evolution is expected to be progressive, however if storms do train along the boundary pockets of heavier rain could be a concern.

Uncertainty increases Sunday and beyond as the thermal ridge shifts east and flattens with incoming shortwave impulses. This will allow for periodic additional thunderstorms chances Sunday into early next week. As the ridge works to rebuild convection chances come down and heat increases. The good news here is that moisture transport looks less robust this time, so while temperatures may return to the low 90s next week dewpoints will be a few degrees cooler.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next few hours. Eyes are on storms forming across SE NE expected to moved SE into NW MO through the overnight. At the time of issuance TSRA is progged to reach STJ around 05Z and MCI around 06Z. CAMs do show a potential for further development ahead of this line and/or acceleration of storm movements. This may have to potential to move onset timing to around 03-04Z for STJ and MCI respectively.

RA/TSRA is expected to linger until around sunrise. additional rounds of SHRA/TSRA are anticipated; however, uncertainties remain as to where storms may develop with recent forecasts pointing toward this additional development being east and south of the terminals.

Winds through the period are expected to remain generally southerly turning to westerly or northerly behind storms then becoming more light and variable through the afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057- 060-103>105. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ102. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.