textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon - overnight. - SPC Slight and Enhanced Risks over portions of the area. - WPC Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall

- Drier with more seasonal temperatures Wednesday through Friday. Next chance for precipitation arrives late Saturday/ Sunday AM, with some potential for light snow across northern MO

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Strong to severe storms are likely from Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Very warm and humid conditions will develop tomorrow afternoon as a surface low tracks across the area. Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s (which will be close to records for the KC area), dewpoints in the middle 60s, and steep 700mb to 500mb lapse rates will combine to lead to a very unstable air mass with MLCAPE values pushing 2000-2500 J/kg. With modest to strong mid to upper level flow streaming overhead, deep-layer shear will be quite favorable organized convection. Storms that develop within this environment will be supercells capable of large/very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. This looks most favorable over the northeastern quadrant of the forecast area, in an around the enhanced risk area. Looking over various forecast soundings from various models over that area, many of the analogs show very large hail. The main uncertainty remains if storms will be able to develop during the late afternoon as there is still some inhibition left. Given that storms should be tied to the front where there would be enough forcing to overcome the inhibition. As storms evolve and grow upscale, the main threat will trend to damaging winds. This looks more likely with the storms that may move into the area from the west along and just head of the front. Additionally, heavy rain with a flash flood threat remains possible. Though there is still considerable variability in the where the heaviest swath of rainfall will reside and a slight trend southward. It seems most likely corridor for heavy rain and potential flash flooding will be from east central KS (Leavenworth to Miami Counties) east-northeastward to Macon down Pettis Counties. This includes the KC Metro.

Beyond Tuesday/Tuesday night, cooler and drier conditions are expected with highs generally in the 50s to lower 60s Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures warm up into the 60s and 70s Saturday, ahead of the next trough moving into the Central and Northern Plains. As that system dives into the Mid and Lower Missouri Valley, a strong cold front will move through the region. This system will also bring the next chance for precipitation to the area on Sunday with some potential for light snow across northern MO. This will greatly depend on just how much cold air is able to spill into the area. In the wake of this system, chilly conditions will prevail for the first part of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Strong low pressure and cold front move toward the area this afternoon, and will move through late in the evening. Strong pressure gradient and boundary layer mixing present another day of southwesterly wind gusts around 25 kts through the middle of the afternoon. Ceilings may develop for a little bit depending on the degree of moisture transport but conditions should remain VFR. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front later this evening, and periods of downpours may result in a few minutes of IFR visibility at the some of the terminals. Unsure at this time if any storms form during the mid to late afternoon. Front should clear the area after 09z Wednesday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.