textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet, dry weather remains today through tomorrow.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday, and remains active through the forecast period.

- Humidity returns by the end of the week and persists through the remainder of the forecast period, with heat indices reaching the 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Quiet, dry weather remains for the rest of this afternoon through tomorrow. Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure has contributed to synoptic scale subsidence and the advection of drier air over our area. Greater chances for precipitation today and tomorrow reside to the west, with disturbances traversing the upper-level flow. However, with the overall strength of the upper-level ridge and presence of drier air at the low levels, chances for precipitation in our area will remain low/zero, with any low-end chances residing in our far western zones. Otherwise, with drier conditions, the reprieve from hot and humid conditions will remain in the immediate term.

As the upper-level ridge deamplifies and the surface high progresses east/southeast, southerly winds will shift our pattern back to warm and moist to end the week. A shortwave trough ejects off the Rockies, and reinvigorates chances for precipitation Thursday evening/overnight as the low-level jet ramps up to the west. While instability remains adequate, shear remains on the weaker side and lapse rates are not sufficient enough to create a strong concern for organized, severe thunderstorms. Thus, general showers/storms are the anticipated mode. This pattern of shortwave disturbances is expected to be the primary driver for continued precipitation chances through the remainder of the week, as a similar setup appears Friday as the ridge and surface pressure further vacate to the east. Convective parameters are slightly improved relative to Thursday, with greater instability, stronger effective shear, and higher lapse rates signaling better chances for organized, severe storms. However, as is typical with these setups, the influence of convection from the previous day and its persistence over the forecast area will determine the potency of Friday's setup during the afternoon/evening.

A closed low over Baja California will keep precipitation chances increased going into the weekend, with an amplified upper-level ridge situated over the Great Lakes keeping this disturbance situated over the central US and continuing precipitation chances through the end of the forecast period. Sustained southerly flow through the forecast period will maintain warm, moist conditions over the forecast area, bringing concerns for heat back for a majority of the forecast period. Heat indices will maintain themselves in the 90s beginning this weekend, bringing back concerns for heat through a majority of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions to prevail at all terminals. Residual cloud cover from morning convection will persist at terminals through the day, with winds remaining easterly at 5-10 kts. Denser cloud cover is expected to remain through the forecast period, with winds shifting out of the southeast tomorrow morning between 12-14z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.