textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms expected areawide tonight, primary hazards including damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

- Heavy rainfall could create additional flooding concerns, especially for areas along and south of I-70 with previous heavy rainfall.

- Temperatures remain slightly above average through midweek next week, increasing chances of precipitation through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The current environment looks somewhat similar to yesterday, with the surface low situated over eastern KS, the warm front pushing into northern MO, and the cold front slowly progressing into eastern KS. Storms have initiated along the triple point going into the afternoon in southeastern NE, with some isolated showers developing in the warm sector through the northern and eastern half of MO and thunderstorms beginning to develop towards the southwest in KS just ahead of the cold front. SBCAPE along and behind the warm front remains around 2000-2500 J/kg, with SBCIN mostly collocated with the warm frontal boundary. Persistent cloud cover through the day has kept storm development to a minimum across the open warm sector. Although convective initiation is currently being observed in the open warm sector with an eroded cap and decent lapse rates (6-7 degC/km), confidence remains low that stronger storms will develop during the afternoon. However, if storms are able to develop near the warm frontal boundary, they will develop in an area with favorable low-level SRH (200-250 m2/s2) and strong effective shear (50-60 kts). This will favor organized convective cells, with all severe hazards possible (damaging winds, large hail, and a few isolated tornadoes).

The greatest confidence for severe weather will be along the triple point and cold frontal boundary, where convective initiation along the boundary will cross over this favorable warm sector environment and result in a line of thunderstorms moving across eastern KS and western/central MO through the late afternoon and evening. Presently, mesoanalysis shows the cap gradually eroding in western MO ahead of the cold front, which indicates convective initiation becoming increasingly likely within the next few hours. With this line of storms, the primary hazards would be damaging wind and large hail, and locally heavy rainfall with the most intense parts of the line. A tornado or two is possible along the line in the form of embedded mesovortices. There is some concern for excessive rainfall creating flooding impacts in areas that have already received ample rainfall in the past few days, especially for areas south of I-70. However, with the progressive nature of the line, the residency of heavy rainfall will remain brief.

The line of thunderstorms will progress eastward through the night as the cold front and surface low pressure exit the area to the northeast, and conditions will clear out through the night. Surface high pressure will build in through Saturday, with northwesterly winds around 20-25 mph, gusting up to 25-30 mph during the day.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Amplified ridging continues to build into the area through Sunday, with surface high pressure entering and exiting through Monday. A small disturbance will prompt our next chance for precipitation (25-50%) Monday night, before upper level ridging progresses eastward into Tuesday. A low chance (10-30%) for precipitation exists Tuesday in northern MO due to the passage of another shortwave, and remains low through Wednesday. Temperatures for this time period will remain within the 50s and low-mid 60s, keeping it at slightly above seasonally average for April. Sustained southerly winds on the backside of surface high pressure will advect warmer temperatures north, and bring temperatures back into the low to mid 70s across much of the area during the day Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period, models simulate the development of a band of precipitation across north-central MO, increasing precipitation chances (50-70%) Thursday and Friday. Probabilistic guidance like the LREF has similarly high probabilities (50-70%), but deviates in its positioning of the greatest probabilities of precipitation. As the forecast grows closer, will have to monitor this precipitation potential at the end of next week to see if a solution for greatest precipitation potential becomes clearer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR/VFR ceilings areawide, currently impacting terminals. Gusty southerly winds have begun across terminals due to the passage of the warm front, with the front gradually making its way further north in the next few hours. TSRA expected to impact terminals as early as 22z, exiting around 1z with the passage of the cold front. Behind the front, winds will turn northwesterly, and gradually calm through the evening. Ceilings will begin to rise, prompting VFR conditions through the remainder of the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.