textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Blustery and cold today, wind chills in the single digits overnight

- Warming up Tuesday, lasting through the end of the week

- Next chance for precipitation Wednesday evening through Thursday (30-50%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Building surface high pressure over the northern Plains, in conjunction with surface low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, is in the process of creating a tight surface pressure gradient over our area that will increase winds through the morning. With strong CAA aloft and clear skies contributing to ample daytime heating, wind gusts up to 25-30 mph are anticipated across the area as the boundary layer mixes out. Overnight, winds will begin to calm as high pressure builds in from the west, with wind chills dipping into the single digits as skies remain clear. Northerly winds on Monday will continue the trend of colder weather to start the week, before shifting out of the south/southwest as the surface high moves off towards the Gulf. These winds will be further reinforced by an associated surface low that develops over the southern Plains, generating low level WAA that will raise temperatures to above seasonally average once again beginning Tuesday.

By Wednesday, temperatures will remain about the same to Tuesday, with low level ridging amplifying out ahead of a shortwave ejecting off the Rockies. While there is still decent agreement in the passage of this shortwave between deterministic models like the GFS and ECMWF, the timing and placement of the greatest precipitation still varies, which could be attributed to continued geographic deviation of the placement and passage of the shortwave and its coincident surface low. For now, will have to continue to monitor forecasts in advance of the event to see if a greater consensus forms between models. The primary mode of precipitation for this event should remain as rain, with temperatures remaining above freezing out ahead of the system. After the passage of this shortwave, surface high pressure will build behind it and propagate eastward through Friday, bringing south/southwesterly winds and bringing temperatures back to higher than normal. By the end of the forecast period, temperatures will begin to lower with gradually building high pressure over the northern Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period. Currently observing some wind gusts beginning in the surrounding region, but still anticipating prevailing gusty conditions to begin around 12z. Northwest winds around 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts expected at all terminals through the afternoon, with gusts falling off around 0z as daytime mixing ceases. Skies will remain clear through the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.