textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front will move slowly through the region from northwest to southeast through the daytime hours tomorrow.

- Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be possible tomorrow night.

- Best chance for severe weather looks to be Friday into Friday night...conditions will need to be monitored.

- Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday evening through Saturday.

- Best chance for showers and storms (90 to 100%) will be Wednesday morning into Thursday morning.

- Widespread rainfall totals of 2-5" is likely, with locally higher amounts possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This afternoon, record highs are being recorded with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s. Strong WAA is expected to continue tonight ahead of a cold front which is currently extends from northeastern Nebraska back into western Kansas. This will allow lows tonight to only fall back into the upper 50s to mid 60s which is about 5 degrees warmer than the normal high for the end of March. There is a slight chance (15-25%) of a few showers and perhaps thunderstorm across northern Missouri ahead of the front late tonight. Tonight into tomorrow a upper level shortwave will dig from the Canadian Rockies through the extreme northern Plains and into the far Upper Midwest. This will sag the slow moving cold front into the area tomorrow. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms (30%- 50%) will be possible along the front during the day tomorrow although convergence along the front will be weak. Highs ahead of the front will reach the low to mid 80s with northwest Missouri, where the front will pass earlier the day the "cool spot" with highs in the low to mid 70s. Thunderstorm chances will increase tomorrow night as a southwesterly LLJ develops and noses into the area. The LLJ will override the surface front which will bisect the CWA by tomorrow night. This will increase thunderstorm coverage and a few storms may be strong enough to produce marginally severe hail as modest instability of 1500-2000J/Kg will be available. In addition, storms should be very efficient rainfall producers with PWATs in the 1.2"-1.4" range which is near the 90th percentile for late March.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Storm chances will continue tomorrow night into Wednesday as the LLJ weakens a bit but never stops nosing into the area. The surface boundary will continue to bisect the area and will be the focus for storm development. Highs will ridge from the 50s north of the boundary (near Highway 36) to the lower 60s to lower 70s south. Wednesday into Wednesday night a upper level shortwave trough will move from the central Rockies into the central Plains. This will force a cold front into the area with widespread showers and thunderstorm expected. A few storms may be strong to isolated severe as modest instability of 1000-1500J/Kg along with 30-40Kts of effective shear will be available. Perhaps of more concern will be the potential for additional heavy rain as PWATs will range from 1.4"-1.6" which is in the 99th percentile for early April. Shower chances will the continue into Thursday morning as the upper level shortwave moves through the area before we final dry out Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with surface high pressure building into the area. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s to lower 70s.

Dry conditions will be short-lived however as Friday, a strong upper level trough will move out of the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains. This will force a strong cold front into the area Friday/Friday night with another round of thunderstorms capable of yet another chance of heavy rain. In addition, severe storms may be possible as the latest output for the GFS produce MUCAPE of 2000-2500J/Kg and effective shear of 40-50Kts. This will need to monitored as the week progresses. With several rounds of storms capable of heavy rain possible this weak rainfall totals for through Saturday range between 2 to up to 5 inches around the forecast area. This may lead to minor flooding and minor to moderate river flooding.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Main concern for aviators will be the gusty winds. Winds thru most of the TAF pd will be out of the SSW btn 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Aft 14Z-15Z winds will become SW around 15kts with gusts around 25kts. Otrw...VFR conds will prevail with sct-bkn high clouds expected thru 14Z-15Z aft which bkn mid-lvl clouds are fcst.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.