textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Thunderstorms and potential for severe storms returns to the area Tuesday PM into the evening and overnight. - SPC Slight and Enhanced Risks and WPC Excessive Rainfall (Flooding) Risk for portions of the area

* Cooler and broadly quiet Wednesday into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Overall quiet conditions prevailed across the area today with clear skies on persistent southwesterly flow from the surface into the mid- levels. This has resulted in another day of warming temperatures, including flirting with (but looking to be just shy) of record warmth, with highs on track to top out in the 70s across the area. Western portions of the CWA (eastern KS and western MO) have seen low end elevated fire weather conditions develop, which will continue until nocturnal cooling and easing of winds settle in. There have been a few noted fires on the TOP radar this afternoon, where fire weather conditions are more favorable. Additionally, increasing near-surface moisture is noted on visible satellite (diurnal CU lifting into/through southern Missouri) and in-situ observations.

The most eventful/impactful portion of the forecast remains Tuesday PM through the overnight hours. The synoptic setup remains well corroborated among deterministic solutions and their fellow ensembles. Existing zonal flow across much of CONUS will shift more southwesterly through central CONUS in response to a northern stream deepening shortwave trough and a cutoff low drifting NE out of NW Mexico which will gradually fill and merge with the northern stream wave. This progression will increase southwesterly flow through the Plains, yielding continued and deeper moisture advection into the area. As has been noted by the previous couple/few discussions, expected PWats toward and above 1.50 inches push into/above the 99th percentile of Euro and NAEFS Situational Awareness Tables, but more on that in just a second. Concurrently, surface low development moves out into the Plains and drifts NE across NE Kansas and NW Missouri, lifting a warm front through the state, likely settling into Southeast Iowa and Northern Illinois. The path and orientation of the surface low pushes the best moisture and thermodynamic environment around and to the South and East of the KC Metro area. With supportive mid-level lapse rates, guidance has seen an uptick in SB/MU CAPE values toward and above 2500 J/kg within the open warm sector. Convective potential within the open warm sector remains in question with a sizable CAP in place and some uncertainty in cloud cover expanse. Should any storms achieve initiation in the warm sector, they would carry the potential for all modes of severe weather. Large hail (up to an greater than 2 inches) and damaging winds would be the main risks, especially initially. Storms that achieve organization and motion more along the right mover estimate, could see increased tornadic potential as soundings suggest that would yield mostly streamwise vorticity ingest in the low levels. But... this risk is conditional given the uncertainty in convective initiation potential within this open warm sector. Most prevalent window here would be after 3-4pm and toward/a bit after sunset.

More certain, convection wise, is activity nearer the cold front in the evening hours, which too will be concurrent with approaching/overspread deeper lift with the mid-upper level waves and jet streak. Thermodynamic profiles suggest wind and hail chances, but are certainly less robust than the open warm sector profiles mentioned above. With the more expansive and deeper lift, upscale growth is expected, turning primary concern toward damaging winds. Surface front SW to NE orientation aligns largely with low level shear vectors and the mean flow, limiting QLCS tor potential and giving concern to training storms and a flooding threat with an initially lethargic frontal position. Synoptic and available higher res models have signaled a fairly narrow area near the front with >2 inch QPF. Given the tendency to under do higher end precipitation, a swatch of 2 to 4 inch rainfall or greater is certainly possible. Eventually, building large area of high pressure over the western Northern Plains will begin to push the cold front across the area and become more progressive in general. All in all, continue to see no reason to disagree with the current SPC Day 2 Convective and the WPC Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks.

Aforementioned surface high clears conditions out through the day Wednesday and allows more seasonable temperatures to filter down into the area. Expect highs in the 50s Wednesday and then some moderation back into the 50s/60s through the end of the work week. Overall conditions remain quiet through this time as well with any notable disturbances to the flow displaced northward. The next opportunity for any appreciable precipitation may move through the region late Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are likely (>75%) through the forecast. There is a small chance for some MVFR to IFR ceilings to build north into tomorrow morning as moisture surges northward. For now, have just added a TEMPO group of scattered low clouds to account for this. The thicker cloud cover looks more likely to the east and southeast. Winds increase late in the morning from the southwest, with gusts of 25-30kts possible. The chance for convection look low enough through 00Z that I have kept it out of the forecast for now. But thunderstorm chances increase significantly in east-central KS and west-central MO after 00Z Wed.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.