textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week, with Friday afternoon highs in the 70s.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected Friday afternoon and evening. RH values may drop below 25% with winds from the southwest gusting to 25-30 mph.

- Impactful wintry weather is possible Sunday into Monday, including freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Conditions are pleasant and dry this afternoon, with sfc temperatures warming through the 50s. Highs this afternoon are expected to top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Current winds are 5-10 kt from the W/NW this afternoon. A broad, weak sfc high stretches ENE from the central Plains to the eastern Great Lakes. Winds will diminish after sunset, with mainly clear skies continuing overnight.

On Friday, a potent mid-level trough and deepening sfc low will rotate east across Ontario, dragging a cold front southeast through the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. This cold front is forecast to reach the KC Metro Friday evening. Out ahead of the front, increasing W/SW low-level flow will bring warm, breezy conditions to the region. Forecast soundings reveal 25-30 kt winds in the lowest 1 km, with good afternoon mixing. The pattern suggests temperatures could overachieve slightly, so decided to trend the forecast warmer (and drier) with MaxT (Td). With plenty of sunshine, temps will have no trouble reaching the low to mid 70s Friday afternoon. Confidence has increased in afternoon RH values dipping below 30%, and RH values below 25% look fairly likely across a significant portion of the forecast area. And with sustained winds of 15-20 mph (gusting to 25-30 mph), critical fire weather conditions are possible. In coordination with surrounding offices, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for areas north of the Missouri River to highlight the elevated fire danger.

The sfc cold front should push most of the way through MO and eastern KS Friday night, but may end up stalling over the southern half of the area on Saturday. There appears to be a very small chance for light rain in the vicinity of the frontal boundary on Saturday, but moisture is limited. The larger sensible weather impact will be the large north to south temperature gradient across the region. High temperatures on Saturday could range from the low 50s in northern MO to the 70s in southern portions of the area.

Impactful wintry weather remains a significant concern Sunday and Sunday night, with impacts perhaps lingering into Monday. Mid-level shortwave energy is forecast to stream eastward across the central Plains on Sunday. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure is forecast to slowly develop ENE across the southern Plains. Increasing SW flow aloft will advect warmer, moist air northward into the region, while sfc flow may remain out of the E or NE. With the arrival of deep moisture and a warm nose aloft, this setup appears favorable for a variety of precipitation types from south to north across MO and eastern KS. In general, snow probabilities are highest across northern MO with the highest rain probabilities in southern MO. Somewhat narrower transition zones of freezing rain and sleet will be possible somewhere in between for multiple hours, however. Forecast confidence at this time range is low on the exact location and timing of p-type changeovers.

While confidence remains low on detailed p-type timing and amounts, forecast confidence is fairly high on the area seeing at least minor impacts due to wintry accumulations of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Temperatures are forecast to drop well below freezing late Sunday night and early Monday, so slick conditions may impact the Monday morning commute. Another storm system moving across the Rockies will likely bring additional rainfall chances into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with nary a cloud in the sky. Light winds overnight will increase late in the morning/early in the afternoon. Winds will become southwesterly at 10-15kts with gusts of 20-25kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033. KS...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for KSZ025-102>104.