textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Friday looks especially warm with highs in the 70s.

- Elevated to possibly near-critical fire weather conditions possible on Friday. RH values may fall into the 20-30% range with winds potential gusting 20-30 mph.

- Wintry precipitation possible Sunday into Monday. This includes a 25-45% chance for at least 0.01" of freezing rain, and a 20-55% chance for at least 1" of snow, with the latest suite of ensemble guidance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Warm but dry conditions will prevail Thursday as the system that moved through Wednesday evening scoured moisture well south of the area. Highs should be able to climb into the lower 60s over eastern KS and western MO, with highs in the mid to upper 50s further east. Those warm and dry conditions will prevail Friday as well. Southwesterly low-level flow will develop and that will allow temperatures to soar into the middle 70s for much of the forecast area. Elevated to possibly near-critical fire weather conditions still are expected as those well above normal temperatures will drop humidity values into the 20-30% range. The main uncertainty lies with how low dewpoints may fall in this flow regime. Several models show dewpoints in the mid to upper 30 degree range. Other models, which have a more westerly component to the surface flow drop dewpoints into the upper 20s to low 30s. This makes a big difference in how low the relative humidity falls. That said, looking at the GEFS HDWI for Friday, most members are above the 90th percentile and northern portions of the forecast have many members above the 95th percentile. Given this ensemble output, will continue to message elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon.

A cold front will move into the area Friday night into Saturday, and depending on where the front settles by Saturday afternoon, highs could remain well above normal, or trend back to more seasonal levels. Ensemble guidance continues to show high variability with temperatures Saturday. And looking over deterministic guidance shows the front anywhere from the southern tier of the forecast area to between I-70 and Highway 36. Our current forecast shows a nearly 30 degree spread in highs for Saturday between northern Missouri and the southern tier of counties in our forecast area. So the forecast high of 66 for the KC area could vary significantly.

For Sunday into Monday, the potential for wintry weather remains, with a wintry mix still possible through the middle to southern half of the forecast. It seems models have trended colder, pushing the mixed precipitation area southward slightly. That said, the probability for seeing any freezing has increased from northeastern KS into west-central MO, with probabilities of 25-45% for at least 0.01". Ensemble guidance still depicts 5-10% for at least 0.25" of freezing rain through this area. Further north, deeper into the cold air, the probability for snowfall has increased, with a 20-55% chance for at least 1" of snow. The highest probabilities are naturally across the northern portions of the forecast area where the deeper cold air will reside. But even across the Kansas City area, probabilities have increased and in addition the potential for freezing rain, there is roughly 35-45% for at least 1" of snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions to prevail throughout the period with clear skies and predominantly light winds. Initially light and variable winds will give way to westerly winds, under 10 kts, by the late morning and afternoon. Through the evening and overnight, winds will shift out of the SW and remain on the lighter side, but will begin to increase in magnitude late in the period and beyond.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.