textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight.

- Precipitation chances linger into Tuesday.

- Seasonable temperatures mid week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

This is a very complex forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours as a deepening trough moves out of the Intermountain West into the Plains. Water vapor imagery early this morning shows this system centered roughly over Utah and somewhat disorganized still. A subtropical jet is surging across the Southwest into eastern New Mexico and the northwest Texas Panhandle, with convection already noted in that region. The polar jet is rounding the base of the trough currently and remains discrete from the subtropical jet initially. Broad and deep ascent will increase later this morning and this afternoon, associated with the subtropical jet moving into the area. This forcing may get an initial round of showers and storms to develop in the noon-3pm time frame. CAPE is going to be limited for this entire event and that will be the running theme throughout the next 24-36 hours. But if sufficient surface based CAPE can develop during the day, and it isn't constantly eroded from the strong forcing overspreading the area, these initial cells could become severe. This seems unlikely though. What seems more likely is storm development along the front through central-eastern Kansas during the afternoon, where instability is maximized just ahead of the boundary. These storms will likely quickly become linear or semi-discrete clusters as the whole area moves east from the late afternoon into the evening hours. As this is occurring, the low- level jet strengthens, enhancing the curvature of the low-level hodograph and lengthening it overall across eastern Kansas and into far western Missouri, increasing the potential for embedded tornados within the line. Ensemble mean MUCAPE peaks around 500 J/kg in far eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Again, very limited but may be sufficient given the shear. With this line of storms moving into our western zones as early as 02-04Z and continuing east through 06-08Z, we may be dealing with a damaging wind and QLCS tornado risk well into the overnight hours before the system loses steam in the pre- dawn hours.

Tuesday continues to look unsettled and may pose a sneaky severe risk with some instability ahead of the slow moving front late in the morning to early afternoon. The NAM still shows a local max of instability through the forecast area just ahead of what may be a triple point in west-central Missouri. Shear is extremely strong though and so strong it could rip apart updrafts that do try to develop. So it's something to keep an eye on but seems lower probability at this point with the greater risk for any additional severe weather well southeast of the forecast area.

The forecast for the later half of the week and through the weekend will feature cooler, closer to normal temperatures. Early next week, in the Sunday to Monday time frame, deterministic models show a strong shortwave moving through the middle of the country. The GFS, in particular, moves very cold air aloft over the region with this shortwave. With 925mb temperatures near 0C, this could support some wintry precipitation. Only about 15-20% of ensemble clusters show anything close to a robust closed system early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Generally MVFR CIGs are expected to prevail across the region with breezy southerly winds and gusts around 20-25 kts. Isolated showers and storms may impact some of the terminals early/mid afternoon...confidence is higher at southern terminals. Later this evening, a line of showers and storms is expected to move through eastern Kansas and into Missouri...went with prevailing -SHRA with TEMPOs for -TSRA when confidence in TS is highest. Lingering showers for the majority of the TAF period with MVFR CIGs.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.