textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected starting late Thursday night through Friday night.

- Strong to isolated severe storms are possible Thursday night mainly across far NW MO.

- Higher chances for strong to severe storms is expected starting Friday late afternoon and evening into the overnight. All severe hazards are possible including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The latest surface analysis depicts a warm from draped across the southern half of Missouri. Over the next several hours, this boundary will shift northward as a low-level jet is expected to intensify ahead of mid/upper-level longwave. A broad area of ascent will encourage convective initiation late tonight across portions of northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri. Storms that develop are forecast to quickly grow upscale with the resultant MCS tracking northeastward into Iowa. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and small hail are possible hazards with these storms.

Before sunrise Friday, the weakening remnants of storms from Texas and Oklahoma will attempt to move into the region. CAMs have struggled to latch on to a consensus regarding whether or not these decaying storms will make it to the CWA and, if they do manage to survive the journey, how long they will last. These storms are unlikely to be impactful on their own, however, they carry great implications for Friday afternoon and evening's severe threat. A longer duration morning precipitation event could significantly hinder the atmosphere's ability to recover for late afternoon/early evening convection. Although instability and shear parameters in the warm sector continue to be worrisome, confidence is decreasing that the environment will be able to successfully overcome the widespread cloud cover earlier in the day in order to produce discrete convection late Friday afternoon and early evening. CAMs also appear to struggle with how the event will play out; some still attempt to initiate discrete cells while others do not. Ultimately, the Friday afternoon/evening threat is highly conditional on how the morning plays out tomorrow. If we see an early end to precipitation and are able to break through layered cloud cover, the potential for discrete supercells capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will increase. Unfortunately, this situation continues to be one that could easily over or underperform depending on the circumstances tomorrow morning.

Confidence is higher regarding a nocturnal push of convection associated with the cold front, however, the intensity of this line would be dependent on how the early portions of the day play out. Widespread ascent is expected along the frontal boundary and will allow for rapid upscale growth into a QLCS. This line could have upwards of 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, 50 knots of deep layer shear, over 800 J/kg of DCAPE, 350 m2/s2 of 0-1 km helicity at its dispersal, which could allow for widespread damaging winds and embedded mesovorticies within the line. Should there be discrete convection in the hours preceding the cold front, the QLCS would likely be on the weaker side (barring any outflow boundaries left by supercells that the QLCS could interact with). Should no discrete convection occur ahead of the line, the QLCS should be able to tap into a more supportive environment overall.

By Saturday morning, storms are expected to exit the area. Cooler air advecting in behind the front will lead to a more seasonable day with highs in the low to mid 50s. Surface high pressure will build into the area Saturday night dropping lows back into the 30s. The surface ridge of high pressure will slide south and east of the area on Sunday with WAA developing in its wake. This will return high temperatures well above normal in the mid to upper 60s. Strong WAA will continue Sunday night into Monday with highs rising into the 70s on Monday. Monday into Monday night a upper level shortwave trough will move through the Upper Midwest into northern Great Lakes. This will push a weak backdoor cold front into the area Monday night. This front will be the focus for nocturnal convection Monday night into Tuesday morning as a lead upper level shortwave ejects out from a upper level closed low trough over the Desert Southwest. As it does, a LLJ develops and noses into the area providing the chance for elevated convection. The LLJ remains focused on the area as the upper level trough moves into the southern Plains on Tuesday. This is expected to continue storm chances across the CWA Tuesday. With the area in the warm sector there is the chance for strong to severe storms particularly for areas south of the Missouri River however, the better potential for severe weather looks to be south of the forecast area where the better forcing resides. Models continue to slow the eastward progression of the closed low upper trough on Wednesday as it slowly moves through the Red River Valley. This will continue storm chances on Wednesday with the best chance for storms again across the southern CWA. Highs Tuesday in the warm sector will be in the mid to upper 70s. With storms around on Wednesday, highs will be cooler in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 559 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently MVFR conditions with SE winds around 10 knots at the terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop by late this evening and move into far NE KS and NW Missouri, likely impacting STJ between roughly 4z and 7z, with impacts to the KC metro terminals more uncertain as they may be too far south. Another round of showers and storms may impact the terminals between 11z and 15z Friday morning. Winds turn southerly and increase by around 11z Friday, with gusts up to 30 knots beginning by 15z and continuing through Friday afternoon. Another round of storms will be possible toward the very end of the TAF period, but may hold off until after 00z Saturday. MVFR CIGs are anticipated to generally continue through the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.