textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning, mainly for areas near and south of Interstate 70. Locally heavy rainfall and cloud-to-ground lightning will be the main threats. The severe-weather potential is quite low. Conditions are expected to dry out by the afternoon.

- Cooler temperatures are expected for the next week, with several chances for storms this weekend into much of next week.

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms on Saturday afternoon into the overnight hours. Damaging winds are the primary threat from storms during this period.

- There are some indications that the pattern developing next week will be favorable for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Confidence is low with the geographical placement of this heavy rainfall potential at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Main concerns for the short-term forecast period are lingering storms this morning and fog potential tonight.

Radar at 2 am indicates numerous storms have developed in a roughly west-to-east corridor from central and east-central Kansas into central and southwestern Missouri, with locally heavy rainfall rates (1-3 inches per hour) with the strongest convective cores. Though antecedent conditions have been quite dry across the area, multiple rounds of storms appear likely to occur in a narrow corridor in our far southern CWA early this morning. A precipitation accumulation axis of 3-6 inches of total rainfall seems likely from portions of Linn County KS to Bates County MO and potentially into Henry County MO as well. Localized flooding may occur in this corridor early this morning, though rainfall may accumulate over a long-enough period to mitigate a more substantial threat. Otherwise, for areas just to the north of this corridor, scattered showers/storms will continue through to just after the morning rush, with benign rainfall totals and little threat of severe weather (given the very stable conditions near the surface north of the cold front, which is now south of the forecast area). These storms should gradually shift east out of the region by this afternoon, with skies clearing from northwest to southeast to close out the day.

This leads to a setup appearing quite favorable for some fog tonight. As the attendant vorticity maximum shifts southeastward from the region this evening, a surface high should shift southeastward immediately upstream (though displaced to our northeast). Winds should be light with clear skies. Given recent rainfall, fog should readily develop Thursday night. HREF probabilities of visibilities less than a half mile are 40-70 percent in much of the area after 2 am Friday. Have added mention of fog across the region to tonight's forecast, with at least some potential (up to 30 percent) for dense (< 0.25-mile visibilities) fog by daybreak Friday.

The good news is that temperatures will be much more comfortable during this time frame, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 60s across the region through Friday night. Friday should be a sensational day overall, but storm chances may increase as the next system approaches the central Plains late Friday night. Uncertainty is rather high regarding this potential, however, given the rather nebulous forcing present in our region relative to areas farther north and west. Model output (including that from CAMs) is quite variable Friday night, so some modifications to the forecast seem quite likely leading up to Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

The main concerns for the medium-range forecast include severe- weather potential on Saturday evening/night, and additional chances for storms for much of the following week.

Quasi-zonal midlevel flow will exist in the northern/central U.S. this weekend into next week, with faster flow confined to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, especially this weekend. Weak perturbations will migrate eastward in this flow regime, but forcing/lift will be considerably stronger well north of the area. This leads to lower predictability with the convective forecast this weekend in the lower Missouri Valley, with highly variable output with the convection-allowing models and the coarser deterministic/ensemble guidance as well. Most guidance depicts a weak perturbation ejecting eastward through the central Plains on Saturday night, leading to convection developing in the central Plains (likely to our west) Saturday afternoon/evening and progressing eastward into the Missouri Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning. A weak cold front will be present from the Upper Midwest into the central Plains on Saturday, with surface convergence possibly sufficient to initiate storms during the afternoon to our west/northwest. However, large-scale lift will increase Saturday night via the low-level jet and improved warm advection as a lee surface low develops in the high plains. Given the uncertainties with afternoon convection, it is still unclear how storms will evolve in our immediate forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. However, the pattern is certainly conducive for storms at some point during the weekend, and the overall environment is at least marginally supportive of severe weather (modest shear and decent instability, with damaging winds the primary threat). The damaging wind potential may increase if storms Saturday evening can organize/congeal into a mesoscale convective system and develop a progressive cold pool. The SPC has placed the area in a marginal risk for Saturday evening/night, which seems reasonable at this stage.

Showers/storms may linger into Sunday across portions of the area. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough will eject northeastward from the central Rockies Sunday afternoon/evening into the central Plains. However, downstream ridging will be intensifying during this period, so the lift attendant to this perturbation may be shunted farther to the north (relative to Saturday night). Nevertheless, at least some potential exists for additional storms Sunday night into Monday in proximity to this system. For now, have kept PoPs during this period mostly north of U.S. Highway 36, though confidence is lower than average. Meanwhile, farther to the south, temperatures will be noticeably warmer by Sunday (mid 80s to lower 90s).

The large-scale pattern remains similar on Monday (likely leading to slightly warmer temperatures overall), but additional shortwave troughs will eject northeastward into the northern/central Plains during this period. With associated rounds of convection attendant to these vorticity maxima, heavy rainfall becomes an increasing concern with time. At this time, this potential looks highest just to our north (Nebraska and Iowa); however, with time, this potential will sag southward as convective outflow eventually impinges on the ridging. A particularly potent trough may affect the northern/central U.S. by mid to late week, further enhancing the southward trend of the shortwave trough tracks. Pattern recognition suggests that heavy rainfall is likely in a favored corridor on the southern/southeastern fringe of stronger midlevel flow and the northwestern periphery of the downstream ridging. This may include some or most of our forecast area, though confidence is on the low side given the considerable variability apparent in ensemble output by this portion of the forecast. Nevertheless, the pattern looks increasingly unsettled next week, with temperatures eventually cooling as the stronger midlevel flow and associated surface systems/fronts approach the region with time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered showers/storms will be moving near/through the KC terminals through 13z before shifting to the east. Some MVFR or even occasional IFR CIGs may linger after the showers exit, but improvement is expected by/after 15z to mainly VFR. Light and variable winds are expected to become northeast to east around 5-10 kt by late morning. Winds will slowly veer to a southeast direction tonight before becoming mostly light and variable around daybreak Friday. Some fog is anticipated after 06z Friday, but confidence is low regarding specific categories. Do think sub-VFR is probable (>50% chance) by daybreak Friday, at least occasionally, so have included mention of this for all the TAF sites.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.