textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Today, Windy Through About Noon

- Accumulating Snowfall Forecast Monday

- Uncertain Where Band of Greatest Snowfall Occurs Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The trough axis and center of the cyclone that brought us the precipitation activity on Saturday has moved into the Great Lakes Region. However we are still in the right entrance region of the H3 jet streak providing some continued lift. And with lingering moisture, is providing continued cloud cover for portions of central Missouri heading into the morning hours of Sunday. The cold front has passed south of the area, and surface anticyclone is spreading across the Central CONUS that has been pushing a cold dry polar airmass into the region. We should see some periodic breaks with sunshine. However we still have quite bit of moisture lingering around at various levels the troposphere resulting in cloud cover that may be difficult to completely eradicate. Strong northwesterly winds will keep temperatures only in the mid to upper 20s this afternoon. Wind gusts between 20 to 30 MPH may continue through the early afternoon hours, with strong pressure gradient and persistent CAA. Eventually the pressure gradient weakens later this evening, and winds should begin to diminish. Temperatures through the evening and overnight will then drop into the teens north of Interstate 70, with areas southward in the lower 20s. Cloud cover will play a role in overnight low temperatures in regulating radiational cooling. Could see cooler temperatures in areas with clear skies and calm winds.

Watching the next PV anomaly over the Pacific Northwest that is developing an H5 trough and strong vort max that will dig toward Rockies through Sunday afternoon and evening. This will push a modest ridge axis east of the area and the center of the surface anticyclone shifts toward the Ohio River Valley. Despite stronger dCVA progged with this system, there is not a signal for an overly robust surface response. Most deterministic guidance does not depict a bona fide mid-lattidue cyclone or low pressure system. Therefore, the Monday activity is going to largely be forced by the mid-level vort max and some convergence above 850mb, really above 700mb. Because of this, no substantial baroclinic zone will be present across eastern Kansas to Central Missouri. The column will remain very cold and below freezing, meaning that snow will be the dominant precipitation type, eliminating challenges associated with mixed precipitation and its transition. Modest H5 height falls starts early Monday morning for the western portions of the forecast area, but the greatest height fall rate and stronger vort maxima likely holds off until the early afternoon hours. The early afternoon is also when the RAP and GFS begin to show an increase in Q-vector convergence on the leading edge of the H5 trough axis. As the convergence increases, will begin to develop snow, moving roughly from west to east, perhaps more west-northwest to east-southeast. This forcing will be enough to produce some amount of snow across the bulk of the forecast area. Areas south of Hwy. 50 may not see nearly as much, depending on the exact track. Both global scale ensemble systems, as well as CAM solutions depict a band of 2 to 4 inches of snowfall developing somewhere between Interstate 70 and the IA-MO state line. The GEFS, NBM and other ensemble systems favor a localized QPF axis max between Interstate 70 and Hwy. 36 that results in this band of 2-4", with 1-2" then north of Hwy. 36 to the Iowa state line. 00z CAMs though, take this 2-4" in band and concentrate between Hwy. 36 and the Iowa state line, with 1-2" then southward toward Interstate 70. The HREF probability matched mean output also has a pocket of 4-6" for our northern counties, which with a colder column and higher snow ratios, is not completely out of the question. But looking at the antecedent moisture setup, am hesitant to buy into the HREF probability matched means. It appears the main reason for this discrepancy between the global scale NWP and the CAM NWP is the positioning of favorable FGEN processes, and also the position of stronger lift through the DGZ. As indicated by the amounts discussed above, the CAMs think these FGEN and DGZ lift enhancements will be forced between Hwy. 36 and the MO-IA state line, while the GEFS and other coarser scale ensemble solutions concentrate this between I-70 and Hwy. 36. Using a threshold of 2.0 or 3.0 inches of 24 hour snowfall accumulations, both the HREF and GEFS show around 60-70 percent probabilities for at least 2.0 inches snow, but one is northward, while other is southward. This has been the main forecast challenge. Secondary challenge is whether or not the models are handling the available moisture content appropriately. The bulk of forcing associated with this H5 wave exits the forecast between 00z-06z Monday night, which will bring an end to the snowfall across the area.

In coordination with western neighbors, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Monday, right now for areas roughly along and west of Interstate 35. Yes, similar snowfall amounts are forecast east of Interstate 35 outside the current advisory issued early this morning. For areas west of I-35 though, the onset time is likely less than 24 hours, especially for northwestern Missouri. Therefore, decided to issue the advisory. An eastward expansion is likely east of I-35 on subsequent forecast updates, but with a later onset time east I-35, will be able to take a deeper dive into 06z and 12z model output, as well as the 12z HREF. The main question will likely be how far south of Hwy. 36 (east of I-35) will be needed based on snowfall amounts. The 11z start time mainly reflects the onset of snow, especially in northwest Missouri. For the immediate KC metro, the morning commute may see some snow floating around. However, morning commuters in the KC metro may not see snow accumulating. The KC metro afternoon commute may be more impacted than the morning commute. But given the uncertainty with the heavier banding, decided not to get overly complex with the timing and segmenting of the advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory may experience changes in the valid time, as well as areal extent later this afternoon, as confidence hopefully increases in the positioning of any FGEN processes and where the best DGZ lift may occur.

After this system passes by Tuesday, modest mid-level ridge axis traverses the central CONUS and will provide some warmer temperatures, back into the 30s across most of the area with lower 40s possible south of Interstate 70. Should be mostly dry through most of the week. Another system moves through toward the end of the week, with ensembles showing low end probabilities for detectable precipitation Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

High pressure is sliding in, however there are few inversion spots that lingering moisture is allowing a cloud deck to hold steady. In the past few hours, western Missouri and eastern Kansas did clear. However, more stratus is noted on satellite imagery that moving into Missouri from eastern Nebraska with MVFR ceilings. Expecting MVFR coverage for most of Sunday. A few breaks may be possible. Winds should diminish by the middle of the afternoon. Snow is expected most of Monday, but the bulk of impacts will be past the current 12z TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-102>105.