textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Seasonably warm temperatures and humidity levels along with dry weather are expected today and Monday.
- A major warmup is forecast to begin Tuesday and continue through the end of the week.
- Dry conditions are expected the next seven days.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Dry and increasingly hot temperatures are expected through the forecast period. The region will come under the influence of an omega block that will result in H5 ridging over the area, which will keep precipitation chances very low to nil. Today and Monday will see quiet weather with temperatures near typical mid-July values.
On Tuesday, the ridge associated with the omega block will become more centered over the region. As H5 heights rise to 594-597 dm (around the 95th percentile per the LREF), a significant warming trend will begin. The latest NBM ensembles show a 60-80% chance of high temperatures of 90F or greater Tuesday and 80-100% chances Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday and Saturday, the peak of the heat is expected, with 30-60% and 50-75% chance of high temperatures exceeding 95F on Friday and Saturday, respectively.
With the ridging trending in stronger direction in the most recent ensemble guidance, precipitation chances have trended below mentionable values for the next seven days. With drying soils and suppressed Gulf moisture, dew point temperatures look to say in the middle to upper 60s for most spots during the worst of the heat, so peak index values look to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s late in the week, which would be below heat headline levels.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 554 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026
Quiet weather will continue with the 12z TAF package. High pressure centered north of the region will bring light E-NE winds around 5-10 kts. Skies will be mostly clear, with only a few passing CU with cloud bases around 5kft. Confidence in fog impacts developing at STJ was high enough to introduce a TEMPO MVFR group for early Monday morning.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...None. KS...None.
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