textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms Saturday late afternoon into the overnight hours. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats with this activity. Heavy rain will also be possible which could lead to localized flooding

- There is potentially an active pattern setting up for next week, with multiple chances for showers and storms leading to potential for heavy rainfall. There is considerable uncertainty in the placement dependent on how strong and upper ridge is to our southeast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure is shifting off the to the east this afternoon and modest WAA has developed. That has allow for temperatures to warm into the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Tonight, a upper level trough will move from the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This will force a trailing cold front into the area tomorrow morning. A few showers and storms may be possible along and ahead of this front across the western CWA tomorrow morning (20-30%). Tomorrow, the overall pattern will feature quasi-zonal flow aloft with a stalled frontal boundary bisecting the area. During the late afternoon/evening hours a upper level shortwave traveling on zonal flow aloft is progged to move into the area which is expected to kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms with the stalled frontal boundary as the focus. These storms are expected to develop in an environment where 2500- 3500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available and 40-45kts of 0-6Km shear. This will provide the potential for storms to be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Tomorrow night, a southwestern LLJ will develop and nose into the area which will continue the chance for stronger storms as well as the potential for heavy rain with PWATs hovering in the 1.75-2.00" range. As such, localized flooding cannot be ruled out. Storm chances will continue into Sunday as quasi-zonal flow persists with several subtle shortwave possible. This will continue the potential for flooding particularly across the northern CWA where storms are more likely. Highs Saturday will be in the 80s. The temperatures on Sunday will have a greater spread with cloud cover and storms keeping highs in the mid 70s over northern Missouri but reaching the upper 80s across the southern CWA.

Sunday night into Monday, upper level ridging will build over the Mississippi River Valley. As a warm front lifts north of the area. This will aid in drying conditions out and allow highs to rise into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Tuesday the upper level ridge axis move east into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. This will leave the local area on the periphery of the ridge. Several shortwaves rounding the ridge into the local area in the Tuesday through Thursday timeframe looks to set up a very wet and unsettled middle part of the next work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Currently, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Confidence in coverage and timing of precipitation is low at this time for individual TAF sites. There is potential for showers and isolated thunder around daybreak, Saturday, greater confidence is for this activity to remain west of TAF sites. A second round of scattered thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Confidence is too low at this time for PROB30 and will reassess at the 06Z and 12Z issuances. Winds will remain light overnight, generally out of the south, shifting more west through daybreak.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.