textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm conditions continue through the weekend. Temperatures fluctuate next week trending cooler toward the end of next week.

- Precipitation chances next Monday into Tuesday are trending lower. Additional chances for rain arrive late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

If you quickly looked at the 500mb analysis between yesterday and this morning, it might seem like little has changed. That is somewhat accurate across the central CONUS and eastern Rockies. The axis of the ridge that dominates the center part of the country has shifted a little south and east as the trough across the western CONUS moves a bit east northeastward. These subtle movements are the beginning of an overall pattern shift that is expected next week.

For the next few days, above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s with a few spots touching 80 degrees. Winds will probably be the most interesting weather variable of the day as diurnal mixing will mix swifter flowing 850 flow down to the surface; however, the peak of the 850mb flow resides over central KS extending into eastern NE and western IA; therefore, gusts (around 20-25 MPH) will likely be concentrated to areas along and west of the I-35 to I-49 corridors.

As Friday becomes Saturday, a trough continues to progress eastward across the western CONUS. Simultaneously a low to midlevel high across the eastern seaboard expands westward toward the MO/KS border. The end result is a cutoff of midlevel flow yielding a warm and dry weekend with less gusty winds.

Deterministic model guidance suggests the southern part of the western trough developing into a cut off low over the four corners region Sunday. This could further the ongoing storms across that region and play a significant role in the weather picture for later next week. There is some skepticism as its imminent formation is not fully clear on water vapor satellite imagery, but it is more likely to manifest itself towards sunrise Saturday. The primary influence this system would have is enabling development of showers and storms along a synoptic front anticipated to develop from west Texas through the northern Great Lakes. This front will be competing against the large high across the eastern CONUS mentioned earlier. Previous model iterations were more optimistic about precipitation making its was eastward late Monday into Tuesday; however, recent runs have been trending drier with precipitation chances around 10- 25 percent and those chances only making it to the St Joseph area and points northwest. Dry and stable air ahead of the front look to win out lowering the chances of rain across the region. However, this does not mean the colder air would be held off. Another upper level wave pushes a lower level high pressure from interior Canada into the central CONUS which will deliver the cooler air. High temperatures decrease to the lower 70s before rebounding again thanks to some sinusoidal action in the 500mb flow; however, another tag team of upper level waves and Canadian air masses look to lower temperatures back down toward the upper 60s.

Looking at the extended forecast, guidance suggest further waves moving across the region with a slow moving synoptic scale cold front expected to drape across the central part of the country toward the end of next week. Many models have been using this as a focus for shower and storm development; however, at this time scale models usually broad brush precipitation potential. Therefore, uncertainties linger with precipitation probabilities currently sitting around 10-20 percent Thursday and 20-40 percent Friday with more fluctuations expected as the forecast updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. South winds around 10-12 knots with gusts up to 15-20 knots possible mainly north of and including STJ. Gusts curtail after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.