textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light rain expected today into Monday most concentrated along and west of highway 65.

* A strong cold front is expected Wednesday. Could see showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, though severe weather potential looks low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Water vapor imagery indicated an elongated trough extending from northwest South Dakota into northeast Nebraska. Lift ahead of this disturbance is leading to light to moderate showers across eastern Kansas into far western Missouri, though easterly flow emanating from surface ridge in the Great Lakes region is eating away at precipitation potential farther east.

For today, looking at additional waves of light rain across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. The clouds and periodic precipitation will keep diurnal temperatures well below seasonal norms. Instability will be very limited so only expect a sporadic lightning strike or two throughout the day. While showers will be relatively slow moving, precipitable water values will only be slightly elevated ~1.5 inches so am not expecting any hydrology concerns with rainfall amounts near 1 inch (~60 percent HREF ensemble probability) in eastern Kansas through Tuesday with lesser amounts farther east.

As upper level wave builds southeast isentropic lift increases towards 06Z-12Z Monday south of highway 36 and mainly west of highway 65. Both the NAM and GFS show deeper saturation developing, though the NAM keeps the saturation closer to the surface layer while the GFS is closer to the 800-600 mb layer. Regardless of which solution you believe, instability looks to be limited but could see a increased precipitation potential Monday morning. Lift wanes as upper level wave approaches and moves south of the region on Monday. Atmospheric column dries out from aloft bringing an end to meaningful precipitation, but still could see the potential for drizzle lingering into Tuesday with low lying stratus lingering.

Models are still continuing to suggest a strong cold front diving south across the Midwest mid-week, but models have trended a bit slower suggesting the cooler air would arrive Wednesday night. This will keep temperatures unseasonably cool on Thursday, before temperatures moderate into the weekend. Along and ahead of the front, there is the chance for additional shower and thunderstorms. While speed shear increases in the column, low level moisture and resulting instability remain limited keeping the severe weather potential to a minimum.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025

Scattered showers are expected through the period weakening as they move east, with less coverage east of highway 65. The showers may result in a temporary visibility restriction, but in general, expect VFR conditions to prevail. Light east-southeast winds through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.