textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures expected to continue through the end of the week, likely through early next week.

- Heat advisory expanded to the entire area through Friday - Will likely need to be extended into or through the weekend - Temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 - Heat index values as high as 105

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The main concern this forecast period will continue to be the well above normal temperatures. Today, the upper level ridge axis that was over the area over the course of the past 2-3 days will slide eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley's. This will provide slight height falls which may drop temperatures a degree or two with highs still rising into the mid to upper 90s. While temperatures may "cool" a degree or two, moisture will begin to increase slightly with dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s allowing heat index values to rise into the 100-105 range. Thursday the upper level pattern will remain unchanged keeping highs in the mid to upper 90s however, dewpoints will continue to increase slightly into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will yield heat index values in the 100-105 range with some locations south of the Missouri River rising above 105. Friday, the upper level ridge axis will retrograde back to the west with the ridge axis again centered over the local area. This will keep highs in the mid to upper 90s despite weaker WAA, in addition, heat index values will also remain in the 100-105 range with some locations south of the Missouri River again rising above 105.

Saturday, the upper level ridge continues to retrograde back to the west into the Plains states. However, the local area remains under its influence with highs still in the mid 90s to near 100 and heat index values remaining in the 100-105 range for most for the area. Model differences beyond Saturday as to how they treat the upper level ridge leads to some uncertainty in the extended timeframe (Sunday through Tuesday). The current NBM features periodic slight chance PoPs (15-25%)in the forecast during this period. If the GFS solution verifies the upper level ridge would retrograde further back to the west across the western Plains. This would leave the local area on the eastern periphery of the ridge with shortwaves rounding the ridge bringing even greater precipitation chances to the area. The EC reintensifies the ridge over the local area keeping conditions dry. Both solutions do continue keeping temperatures above normal with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with few-sct mid-lvl clouds expected thru 15Z-16Z when sct cu around 6kft is expected to develop. Aft 22Z-23Z...just a few high clouds are fcst. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south btn 5-10kts before incrg to 10-15kts with gusts to 20kts out of the SSW aft 15Z-16Z. Aft 22Z-23Z winds will back to the south and diminish to 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028>030- 037-043. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057- 103>105.