textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Warm conditions to close out the work week. Brief rain showers possible (15-30% chance) in far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri during the early morning hours on Friday and Saturday.

* Heat and humidity building over the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures in the mid 90s and maximum heat index values around 100F will be possible.

* Nightly rain chances (20-30%) across far northern Missouri beginning Monday night through Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

With high-amplitude ridging encompassing the western CONUS and a trough axis nosing into the Mid-Atlantic, much of the Plains and Midwest sits beneath northwesterly flow aloft. A trough looming over British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest will march the ridge eastward over the coming days. With the ridge nearing, expect warmer but still seasonal temperatures in the mid to upper 80s today and Friday. Early Friday morning, far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri could see some brief rain showers (15-30% chance). Storms are expected to initiate in southern South Dakota and northern Nebraska overnight with an enhancement of the low-level jet. Some guidance has begun to depict an area of isentropic ascent in southeastern Nebraska in the early morning hours. With convection moving generally to the southeast in this northwest flow regime, this localized area of isentropic forcing may be just enough to sustain showers into the northern fringes of the CWA. A similar setup on Saturday morning (just shifted slightly eastward) could lead to additional rain across northern Missouri.

As the PNW trough slides east and compresses the ridge, high pressure will eventually be corralled into Oklahoma and Texas over the weekend. The tight pressure gradient along the ridge apex will lead to strong southerly flow Saturday into early next week with sustained winds around 10-15 MPH and gusts around 20-25 MPH. Daytime cloud cover on Saturday may be able to abate some of the heat, especially along and north of US-36. As such, maximum temperatures in the north are expected to generally remain in the mid/upper 80s again on Saturday. Further south, where confidence in cloud cover is lesser, temperatures could break into the lower 90s. Even with cloud cover, Saturday will feel warmer in comparison to the end of the week with increasing moisture advection which will bring heat index values into the mid 90s west of US-65. Increasing temperatures and dewpoints Sunday through at least midweek will lead to several days of temperatures in the 90s and maximum heat index values around 100F areawide. HeatRisk is expected to reach Major (Level 3 of 4) Sunday and continue for the majority of the area through Wednesday, further signifying the potential for a late summer hazardous heat event. Shower and storm chances will return just about nightly from Monday night through Thursday morning. Showers/storms would likely be focused along the nose of the low-level jet which is expected to remain mostly north of Kansas and Missouri...a slight southerly shift could bring these showers into our northern tier or two of counties, so held onto about 20-30% 6-hourly PoPs during the evening/overnight/early morning periods Monday through Thursday in our far north.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Some fair weather cumulus will persist until evening across the region. Winds should remain light (around 5 knots) and northerly, shifting to southeasterly Friday morning. Have a low chance (15-30%) for brief showers in NW Missouri Friday morning. Some patchy fog may also be possible near the Missouri River Valley early Friday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.