textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* An active weather pattern is expected today through the weekend and into early next week.

* A few strong to severe storms are possible tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats.

* Although several rounds of storms area expected Friday through the the severe threat looks low at this time.

* The next threat for severe storms will come Monday night into Tuesday, but uncertainty remains high.

* Several consecutive days of rain could lead to minor river/areal flood concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Early this morning, a weak cold front has sagged into northern Missouri. This front will be the focus for active weather the next few days. A few showers have developed along this front as a weak LLJ is overriding the front this morning. This weak LLJ remains persistent throughout the day today so a few showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible across northern Missouri where the front remains stationary. Highs today will range from the mid 70s to near 80 south of the front with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s nearer the front. Tonight, the LLJ will intensify and nose into the area as a upper level shortwave moves into the area on quasi-zonal flow. This will allow thunderstorms to develop, some of which may be strong to severe as 1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE will be available with 50-60kts of effective shear. The main threat with these storms will be elevated hail producer north of the front however, an isolated storm capable of damaging winds cannot be ruled out. The area that will see the best potential for severe storms will be north of I-70 and west of I-35. Storms will continue through the overnight as the frontal boundary slowly sinks south across the CWA and will weaken during the morning hours as the LLJ diminishes. Where the front stalls on Friday will be where the focus for storms and the potential for any storm to severe storms will reside. Current model guidance keeps the front just south of the area limiting severe potential however, several weak shortwaves moving through the area on continued quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue shower and thunderstorm chances through the day on Friday and into Friday night with the highest PoPs (70-90%) across the southern CWA nearest the front. With the area residing north of the front under cloudy skies highs on Friday will cool into the upper 50s to upper 60s.

Friday night into Saturday, the pattern begins to change however, conditions will remain active. During this period a upper level trough will move into California coast and shift into the eastern Rockies. This will allow downstream upper level ridging to build in over the region. The surface front south of the area will begin to lift back north across the area. With several lead shortwave ejecting out ahead of the upper level trough into the area, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be expected Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night through Sunday this, upper level trough weakens into a shortwave as it move from the eastern Rockies into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. This will leave a an attendant cold front to move slowly across the Plains States. Additional round of WAA advection showers and storms out ahead of the front will continue through the period aided by the LLJ and weak shortwave in southwesterly flow aloft. The best bet for a brief break in precipitation looks like it may come in Monday as the upper flow become less active and the persistent LLJ become focused north and east of the forecast area. However, by Monday night into Tuesday another upper level trough will move from the eastern Rockies into western Plains forcing the stalled cold front across the Plains into the area. This system would need to be monitored for potential severe weather. This trough moves through the area Tuesday night with the chance for dry conditions to return Wednesday.

Highs on Saturday, with upper level ridging building into the area and the warm front lifting north, will be in the 70s to lower 80s. Sunday temperatures will again be in the 70s. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the forecast period with less chance for showers during the day, and strong WAA highs will rise into the low to mid 80s. High Tuesday, ahead of the front will rise into the mid to upper 70s before returning to near normal in the mid 60s to lower 70s behind the front Wednesday

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR conds are expected to prevail til late in the forecast pd. Sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds are expected thru the TAF pd. However, btn 02Z-04Z thunderstorms with cigs btn 3-5kft are fcst. Vis may be reduced to 3-5SM in showers. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the south btn 5-10kts but will incr to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts aft 17Z-18Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.