textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Friday evening. Overnight lows in the mid and upper 70s will not provide much relief from daytime heat.

- The forecast is largely dry for the week with only a low chance (15-25%) for rain in northwest Missouri. A higher and more widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms (30-50% chance) arrives for Independence Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Daytime cumulus has developed across the area with plenty of low level moisture present. A surface low sits off the to northwest across Nebraska and the Dakotas and the enhanced pressure gradient across the area has resulted in breezy south winds gusting 25-35+ mph today. Temperatures this afternoon have already warmed through the upper 80s and are expected to rise into the low 90s later this afternoon. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are making for a humid afternoon and the hot and humid conditions will result in heat indicies in the 105-110 range.

There is strong moisture transport into the area beneath the thermal ridge and in the warm sector of the surface low. Hot and humid conditions extend from the central plains through the midwest and towards the Great Lakes region. The pattern will not shift much through the next several days and afternoon heat indicies of 100- 110+ are expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will remain warm in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees and will provide little in the way of relief. As such, the Extreme Heat Warning remains in place through Friday evening.

Convection will occur around the edge of the ridge, often called a ring of fire, through northern and western Missouri and eastern Kansas remain firmly beneath the ridge through the first half of the week and the forecast is dry. Convection may skim far northwest Missouri overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning as the ridge slow shifts east. A more robust shortwave rides over the ridge and passes across the area Saturday. This brings the next round of notable convection to the area and will likely impact the Independence Day holiday. This is still several days out and better detail regarding timing and placement will be better determined over the next several days. Looking further ahead, the ridge looks to quickly rebuild with hot and humid conditions extending into the weekend and early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Southerly winds will continue overnight, but expect the surface wind will fall off a little after sunset while the low level jet increases. The low level jet is expected to increase to around 55 kts at around 2000 ft agl around or a little after midnight resulting in strong low level wind shear during the late night hours. The low level jet will die down after sunrise bringing an end to the strong low level wind shear. VFR ceilings should prevail throughout the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.