textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance for snow (20-30%) through the morning, remaining cool and dry over the weekend

- Blustery conditions anticipated Sunday

- Temperatures on the rise beginning Tuesday, next chance for precipitation Wednesday evening (20-30%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A low-level disturbance over Kansas will bring our next chances for measurable precipitation through the night. Although there is low to mid-level moisture present out ahead of the shortwave, the low levels remain dry, with earlier radar returns showing decaying reflectivity as snow encountered the dry layer. Deterministic hi-res guidance has a swath of snowfall entering the CWA at around 9-12z, with maximum 3-hourly accumulations around a tenth of an inch. Probabilistic guidance like the HREF and NBM hone in around 20-30% chances of measurable 1-hourly snowfall with the passing shortwave. However, model soundings show no appreciable saturation of the vertical profile near the surface as the DGZ saturates and the potential for snowfall increases. Considering the present dry layer of air with the oncoming shortwave, and some indication of this air persisting as the shortwave passes, it will remain difficult for appreciable snow to make it to the surface. With these factors in mind, have kept PoPs around 20-30% overnight, with the thought that it will have to overcome that dry air and any accumulations will remain low. Despite the low end risk with falling snow, some slick spots on the road may still develop.

In the wake of the shortwave passage, strong CAA on the back end of the retreating upper level trough will cool temperatures down going into the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient due to surface high pressure over the Plains and surface low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will ramp up winds going into Sunday, with the potential for wind gusts of 25-30 mph through the afternoon as daytime heating enhances mixing. An upper level ridge will continue building into the area through Monday, with continued low level CAA keeping temperatures cool into the start of the week.

Mid-level ridge axis continues to move eastward Tuesday and through the middle of the week, eventually turning lower tropospheric flow southerly and will send temperatures back into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A brief cool down into the lower 50s may occur as short- wave trough moves around ridge axis and traverses the central CONUS. This may bring rain potential on Thursday. Recent ensemble suites have shown an upward trend in probabilities for measurable precipitation, generally between 20 and 30 percent. Friday and through the remainder of the weekend, deterministic guidance has been breaking down the ridge pattern but still allowing plenty of warm air advection that should help temperatures climb back into the 60s. A few members are pointing the possibility of lower 70s. However, if any of these small short-wave disturbances produce more precipitation or cloud cover, temperatures may end up just hovering in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Currently observing the onset of snowfall off to the west, with cloud ceilings presently lowering at all terminals. Confidence still remains low in light snowfall at terminals, but have adjusted the PROB30 group ahead one hour in advance of the developing snowfall on radar. Cloud ceilings have the potential to reach low-end VFR/high-end MVFR at the onset of the snowfall, and will persist through 18z tomorrow, when cloud ceilings will begin to clear out. 5-10 kt winds will remain out of the north/northwest through the remainder of the forecast period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.