textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today with highs in the upper teens to lower 20s.

- Chance for some flurries and/or light snow tonight into Sunday morning. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Warmer temperatures expected for Sunday and Monday afternoons.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Current H5 analysis overlaid with water vapor imagery shows a closed mid level low centered over southern Appalachia with ridging over the western CONUS, leading to enhanced mid level north northwesterly flow over our region in between the two features. At the surface, a 1042 mb surface high is centered over the Kansas/Oklahoma border north of Tulsa, resulting in light and variable winds, mostly clear skies (albeit with increasing high clouds from the west), and temperatures in the mid teens to lower 20s as of 2 pm.

By later tonight into the overnight hours, a subtle shortwave trough embedded within the northwesterly flow aloft descends out of the north central Plains and approaches our CWA. This will yield some modest ascent and theta e advection, which could be just enough to produce some flurries or even some light snow across the region late tonight into the overnight and morning hours of Sunday. Generally speaking, no accumulation is expected outside of perhaps a dusting to half and inch (0.5") across northern Missouri where the moisture and ascent will be a bit more supportive for better snow. By tomorrow afternoon, the ridge over the western CONUS nudges further east just enough to bring in some higher H5 heights and 850 mb temps, which should allow for afternoon highs to reach the upper 30s for eastern KS and western MO, with sub freezing temps holding on toward central and northeastern Missouri. The warming trend continues into Monday as higher mid level heights build in from the west as the pattern become more zonal. Monday highs are forecast to reach the mid 40s for most locations, with even NE Missouri reaching the mid to upper 30s.

Overnight Monday into Tuesday, another shortwave trough is progged to descend out of northern Plains and into the central CONUS. This will usher in colder air for Tuesday, but the region should remain dry as the better moisture surge remains east of the CWA. By late week, upper ridging looks to build in yet again, and this time it is likely to bring high temperatures into the upper 40s to even the 50s for Thursday and Friday afternoons.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 557 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with bkn-ovc high clouds expected thru 04Z-05Z before ovc mid-lvl clouds btn 6-10kft are fcst to mov into the TAF sites. Aft 14Z-15Z clouds are expected to sct around 10kft. Winds will be out of the south around 5kts to begin the TAF pd but will incr to 7-12kts aft 04Z-05Z. Aft 14Z-15Z winds will become SW around 10kts. There is a slight chc for lgt snow btn 07Z-11Z however, chances are too low for inclusion in the TAF at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.