textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/Storm chances (20-50%) tonight along and south of I- 70 corridor.

- The highest rain chances for the period are currently Thursday afternoon to Friday morning (50-80%). Flooding is possible with these rains.

- The upcoming weekend will see more heat and temperatures flipping to above normal (upper 80s and lower 90s).

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Question mark for the near term is will we get some of the storms currently over eastern CO western NE/KS will eventually survive/flow into our area. The shortwave aloft driving them will cross the KS/MO border area around 00Z tonight. Currently there is a pool of deeper moisture over central OK, per GOES Sounder data. The shortwave as well as stronger low-level southerly flow should be enough to pull some of that moisture into KS, which would allow for some development during peak heating this afternoon. Then the northwest flow aloft could bring some of those rains into our area late this afternoon and tonight. Could also see new development tonight along that precipitable water gradient.

Have used a blend of the hi-res models for PoPs today and tonight. That keeps us in the slight chance range, mainly along the KS/MO border later this afternoon and then increases our chances in the late night, again where that gradient sets up...with peak PoPs in the 30-40 percent range roughly along and south of the I-70 corridor.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Moist airmass will be more solidly in place Wednesday, but without a shortwave trigger, we will be limited to more isolated coverage. Thursday however a more significant shortwave moves out of the Rockies. Background flow will move oriented west to east and most guidance places some kind of frontal boundary in a similar orientation during the day Thursday. This raises the potential for flooding somewhere in the vicinity. 22.12Z Euro Extreme Forecast Index signals at this as well, but with 3 consecutive days highlighted Thu-early Saturday. Will continue to highlight this potential in messaging to close out the work week.

For the weekend, ridging will develop across the region, bringing a return to above normal temperatures. That ridging also should limit coverage of showers/storms, though we will have some humidity in place. By Sunday, we are seeing heat indices rise above 100 and continuing that way Monday.

Beyond Monday...it is worth noting CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks show continued warmth. 00Z GFS, 22.12Z CMC, and 22.12Z ECMWF all show a large ridge dominating most of the U.S. giving some confidence in that warm solution as a stark contrast to the cooler week we've enjoyed so far.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected into tonight before the potential for at least MVFR conditions (mainly ceilings) develops late tonight and Wednesday morning. Clusters of convection currently traversing southward along the Lee of the Rockies should remain west of the terminals into tonight following the moisture and instability gradients. There is a chance for some higher based sprinkles toward 00z, with no impacts expected. Late tonight there is a chance for a shower with the arrival of deeper low level moisture, and have maintained PROB30 mention for all sites but KSTJ. This moisture could result in some MVFR ceilings as well, with NBM probabilities for ceilings <3kft agl at 40-50% which continues trending upward. There is also very low probabilities (20% or less) for IFR ceilings. Current satellite imagery shows an area of lower MVFR stratus north of KSGF to KCNU in SW Missouri to SE Kansas. Trajectories in the cloud bearing layer turn more southerly in time tonight, which would advect this northward but some concerns exist with additional convection passing to our south/west to impeded the advection.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.