textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers make their way into the area, sticking around for the weekend with accumulations around 0.5-1.25 inches.

- Potential for non-severe isolated thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the area.

- Short dry period early next week before another disturbance brings more rain into mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Showers from western KS are continuing to develop as we start off our rainy weekend. Throughout the day, 500mb heights will continue to fall over our area as the shortwave makes its way east and southerly flow at the surface will increase as high pressure moves off to our NE and low pressure develops to our west. Synoptic scale lift could support some isolated thunderstorms while moisture transport could support locally heavy rainfall but storms should remain sub-severe as low-level clouds and weak low-level lapse rates will limit instability. These conditions will stick around for the weekend as a blocking pattern develops at 500mb with high pressure over the Great Lakes is sandwiched between the Nor'easter developing off of the Atlantic coast and the mid-level trough over the Pacific NW and Western Canada. As a result, we could see rain accumulations this weekend of 0.5 inches along I-70 and increasing amounts of up to 1.25 inches for NW MO. Deterministic guidance has showers clearing out Sunday afternoon but how quickly showers clear out will depend on how the blocking pattern develops. An upper-level ridge tries to build back into our area Sunday but it will have to fight the Nor'easter that looks to set up shop over the North Atlantic Coast. As a result, showers could potentially stick around for a little while longer.

As long as the ridge can progress east, as models currently suggest, we should dry out briefly Monday before we see the potential for more rain in the middle of next week. Monday night into Tuesday, there is another 500mb trough that deepens along the California coast and a tropical system moving towards the Baja California Peninsula. Models show these two low pressure systems coming together over the SW US sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday. The systems then continues to progress east, bringing strong moisture transport into our area with strong, moist southerly flow from the Gulf at the surface and the tropical system brings moisture transport aloft, making for a very moist atmospheric profile. As a result, deterministic guidance currently has PWAT values around 2 inches over MO for Wednesday which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year so we will continue to monitor how this system progresses over the next couple of days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Showers continue to move through the area but there is a 30-40% chance ceilings drop to MVFR north of I-70 but it will depend on how far south the heavier showers progress. Showers will shut off this evening but there may still be some lingering isolated showers. Rain will pick back up overnight around 4-6Z but MVFR CIGS will stay contained to north of US-36. Winds will remain light out of the ESE through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.