textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures today through Tuesday

- Widespread fog (some localized dense fog) likely Monday morning

- Light rain/drizzle possible in Central MO Wednesday & Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions (5-10 degrees above normal) usher in the week as surface high pressure sprawls across the lower Mississippi River Valley with northwesterly flow aloft. Light diurnally-driven winds will go calm overnight, and clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling. Consequently, widespread fog (with some localized dense fog) is likely in west-central MO and eastern KS, with REFS probabilities for visibility below 2 miles between 50-70% by 12Z Monday morning. A 500mb low begins to trek into Texas on Monday while 500mb ridging builds across the SE CONUS, which will strengthen our southerly flow and WAA. Highs Monday and Tuesday will range from the mid 60s in northern MO to the low 70s south of the Missouri River.

The streak of non-November like temperatures comes to an end Wednesday and Thursday. An upper-level trough will deepen across the upper-Midwest and Great-Lakes region Wednesday while a secondary wave translates the southern Rockies. An attendant surface-low develops in the SD/IA region Wednesday, sliding into eastern MO/western IL during the day. Given the timing and position of both waves in relation to one another and to the surface low, the strongest forcing and lift will stay east of our CWA, limiting rain potential Wednesday and Thursday. The highest POPs (~10%) are confined along and east of the US63 corridor in MO. Accumulations will be light - the LREF 90th percentile for accumulated precipitation is generally around .1" (mean is around .05") in central MO.

Strong NW flow in the wake of the midweek system will bring highs down into the upper 40s to low 50s to finish out the work week. Patchy frost will also be possible Saturday morning, with light winds and lows ranging from the upper 20s in northern MO to low 30s in central MO. A familiar pattern takes shape next weekend, with upper-level low pressure across the Desert SW and surface high pressure in place over the Mississippi River Valley. Southerly flow will increase as a result, bringing temperatures back into the 60s by Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1147 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR and light westerly to northwesterly winds will persist through the afternoon at all terminals. Monday morning, calm winds and clear skies will be ideal for widespread radiational FG. Expect VIS to begin deteriorating after 5-6Z, bottoming out in IFR after 12Z, then improving after sunrise. It's possible that VIS falls below 2SM (50- 70% chance < 2SM), but opted to hold off for now on lower VIS due to some uncertainty regarding low temperatures, which will affect FG density. Southerly winds pick back up Monday after sunrise as surface temperatures warm.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.