textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers expected to continue through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. Activity remaining nonsevere, with a chance of some rumbles of thunder.

- Brief lull in activity, before showers/storms return tomorrow morning and again tomorrow overnight/Sunday morning.

- Temperatures remain seasonable through the forecast period. Brief dry period to close out the weekend, before wet pattern continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

At the synoptic scale, broad ridging remains in place at the upper- levels across much of the central CONUS. To the east, a closed upper- level trough has remained mostly stationary over the East Coast, while another upper-level trough over the PNW flanks the ridge. With the ridge in place over the central CONUS, flow has effectively remained blocked over the forecast area, keeping us within a relative stagnant pattern for the past few days. However, continued impulses within the low-level flow have served to displace us within the periphery of the ridge. This has opened us to on-and-off precipitation chances with enhanced synoptic ascent from greater influence with passing shortwaves, as well as sustained warm/moist advection from the south/southwest. This blocking will allow our forcing and rain chances to linger until at least Sunday afternoon.

Shower activity has remained nebulous throughout the day today, driven primarily by weak synoptic ascent from embedded shortwaves in the atmospheric flow alongside sustained WAA in the low-levels. This activity is expected to continue through the remainder of the day today while warm/moist advection persists. Activity has remained mostly isolated/scattered and subsevere in nature; this is expected to continue being the trend with minimal instability and poor effective shear for any organized convection. The presence of marginal MUCAPE (~100-200 J/kg) suggests there is low-end potential for some rumbles of thunder through the remainder of the afternoon. However, these probabilities remain on the lower end (~10-15%). Greater intrusion of dry air in the low-levels looks to decrease precipitation chances through this evening, before returning overnight as shortwave and associated intensifying LLJ traverse to the west/northwest of the forecast area. The greatest potential for precipitation overnight resides across northwestern MO and far northeastern KS (70-90%), with isolated/scattered showers further towards central MO. Similar to today, severe chances remain on the lower end with poor environmental parameters for any robust activity.

As the shortwave retreats towards the north/northeast with a diminishing LLJ, precipitation chances will lower across the forecast area through Saturday. Surface high pressure will gradually slide off towards the north and east as the upper-level ridge axis is displaced by the upper-level trough lifting across the northern CONUS. This will shift precipitation chances back over the forecast area by late Saturday evening with the passage of another impulse in the atmospheric flow. Severe chances continue to remain low with meager instability and shear effectively capped off during this timeframe, but lightning remains a risk with these storms (15-30%) with marginally better MUCAPE than previous days.

While the upper-level trough continues to lift off towards the north, and the closed low over the East Coast persists, ridging will build back over the central CONUS and serve to dry conditions out through the remainder of the weekend into early next week. The northward and eastward progression of the ridge (and ultimate evolution of the blocking pattern) will determine temperature trends for Monday onward, with appreciable spread in the 25th-75th percentile temperatures noted in probabilistic guidance. The influence of an energetic trough over the West Coast will help to break down the ridge going into midweek, and keep the remainder of the forecast wetter as the jet interacts with a remnant tropical system near southern California. This interaction with the remnant tropical system will further enhance atmospheric moisture content, leading to impressive PWAT values for this time of year. With these anomalously high PWAT values, trends will need to be monitored for the threat of flooding into next week. Temperatures will remain seasonable through the duration of the forecast period, with high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s during much of the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Light rain is coming to an end across the region from west to east; but the break is temporary with additional rain returning to the region after 06Z Saturday morning. Rain looks to try and scatter out in the 16-20Z Saturday time frame. MVFR ceilings look to remain near the Iowa/Missouri boarder (north of highway 36).

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.