textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours.

- Unsettled weather lingers into Tuesday with temperatures closer to normal through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Precipitation chances will decrease through the morning hours today as shortwave ridging builds eastward into the area. However, moisture will be trapped in the lower portions of the atmosphere so we'll continue to see cloud cover. This should keep highs in the 60s across the area.

Focus shifts to Monday afternoon through the overnight hours as a strong shortwave trough moves east into the central US. A surface low will deepen across Nebraska with a front trailing southward through Kansas. Very strong southerly low-level flow will lead to anomalously high precipitable water values, supporting potential for heavy rainfall. In the upper-levels, a leading jet max may help initiate storms in the warm sector. But's a trailing, stronger jet max will move across the area later in the day and into the overnight hours. And that seems to be the more likely time frame for severe storms across eastern Kansas into western Missouri. Storms seem likely to initiate along the cold front in central Kansas and Oklahoma during the afternoon. These may be supercells initially but these should develop into a line as they move east late in the afternoon and evening, with damaging winds being the most likely hazard. Favorable 0-3KM shear of 30-40kts may also support embedded circulations within the line of storms. With 0-.5km helicity values pushing 200 m2/s2 can't rule out a tornado or two over eastern Kansas and adjacent areas of Missouri as the line of storms moves east during the evening and overnight hours. The Slight Risk area was expanded northeastward on the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook, with much of western Missouri and eastern Kansas in a Marginal Risk.

Unsettled weather will linger into Tuesday, though how unsettled it may be is a little uncertain. The deterministic NAM is considerably slower with the upper wave and and actually has some potential for severe weather Tuesday morning. The GFS is further east with potential storms east of our forecast area. With the upper low moving over Kansas into Missouri through the day, we should still see some potential for precipitation through the day Tuesday.

Temperatures through the remainder of the forecast look cooler, though still slightly above normal for this time of year, with highs generally in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 509 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Conditions are likely (>75% chance) to become MVFR to low MVFR, with lower chance (<25% chance) for IFR ceilings. Once low MVFR conditions settle into the area, we'll see them prevail through the day and into the overnight hours. Conditions may improve to MVFR late in the forecast. Winds will be light from the southeast initially but will increase and become gusty from the southeast late in the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.