textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary concerns, but can't rule out the possibility of tornadoes.

* Enhanced Risk for severe weather again Thursday afternoon and early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes are possible.

* Another round of precipitation this weekend, then much cooler next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The complex of thunderstorms tracking east across KS late last evening has dissipated. Additional scattered showers across NE associated with a weak shortwave trough may build southeast this morning to northwest MO before growing into another thunderstorm complex across southern IA. No severe weather is expected with that round. The main concern today will be as a surface cold front sinks south into northern MO and northeast KS. Steep mid level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will overspread a hot and very moist airmass characterized by pwats around 2 inches this afternoon. Any capping will break by mid afternoon (3-4 PM) and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop along and just ahead of the cold front. SBCAPE in excess of 3500 J/kg and deep layer shear of 35-40 kts will be supportive large hail and damaging winds. Very large hail is possible if storms can remain somewhat discrete. Most of the CAMs tend to develop a broken line of storms within an hour or two of initiation which would limit the high end hail potential. Another concern is heavy rainfall. MBE velocities are southeast 20-30 kts and CAMs remain progressive. However, 1- and 3-hour flash flood guidance are 1 and 1.5 inches, respectively. Given the moisture-laden airmass in place and the efficient rain producing storms, considered a Flood Watch. Decided to hold off for now given the progressive nature of the activity, but if there are increasing signs of renewed development along the stalling front this evening and tonight then it will need to be reconsidered. This is a possibility given the development of a 50 kt LLJ across eastern KS. The limiting factor will be a stabilizing atmosphere below 10 kft. Highs today will reach the mid 80s to lower 90s with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. Should fall short of Heat Advisory criteria of 105+ heat indices.

An area of low pressure over central KS early Thursday morning will track northeast across IA to southern WI by afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early morning across IA and possibly northern MO. The passage of the low will accelerate the cold front's southern progression throughout the day. Thunderstorms will redevelop along it Thursday afternoon from eastern KS through northern MO. Similar to today's threats, large hail and damaging winds are most probable, with a tornado or two also possible. Activity should be exiting to the southeast by Thursday evening.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 337 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

High pressure will build south Thursday night and Friday. A much cooler and drier airmass will advance in, but will be short-lived. Return flow begins Friday night and by Saturday dew points return to the 70s. PoPs increase through the day Saturday as a warm front approaches from the west, then maximizes Saturday night as another cold front sags south. Pwats north of 1.75 inches and widespread showers and storms will keep soils saturated. There is a risk of flash flooding, especially if repeated thunderstorms impact a particular area.

Cooler air will return for the rest of the period with low chances for showers and storms thanks to the passage of several short waves into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Scattered TS near the TAF sites early this morning will continue to develop through mid morning before a short lull into early afternoon. By mid to late afternoon, additional scattered to numerous TS will develop and will continue into early evening. VFR through the period outside of any TS. South southwest winds will increase this morning with gusts of 30-35 kts this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.