textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a 15-30% chance of light rain tonight, with the best chances south of Interstate 70. Rainfall amounts will be very light, generally a trace to 0.05 of an inch.

- A return to typical January temperatures and mainly dry weather is forecast Wednesday through Friday. Blustery north to northwest winds will gust up to 30-35 mph on Wednesday.

- An Arctic cold front will pass Friday night, bringing a short- lived blast of cold temperatures Saturday and Saturday night. Temperatures will fall to 10-15 degrees below normal. There is a 50-100% chance of wind chill values falling into the single digits during this time.

- Temperatures will begin to moderate towards normal values beginning Sunday into early next week along with continued dry weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

One last mild day is underway across the area before a cold front passes through the region tonight. Have lowered forecast high temperatures a few degrees due to plentiful high-level cloud cover, but most locations should still see high temperatures in the middle to upper 50s (15-20 degrees above normal).

Isolated to widely scattered areas of light rain will develop this evening ahead of the cold front's passage. PoPs remain generally in the 15-30% range, with the greatest values south of Interstate 70. Even in locations that do see rain, amounts will be very light, only a few hundredths at most. Temperatures will tumble Wednesday morning after the cold front's passage. Gradient winds will become blustery as well from the N to NW through much of the day Wednesday, with widespread gusts of 30-35 mph expected.

Temperatures will return to typical mid-January values Wednesday through Friday as H5 troughing digs southward from eastern Canada into the eastern CONUS. A secondary surface front will pass Thursday night into Friday morning. Moisture will again be lacking, but there will be a bit better moisture and forcing to our northeast, which will allow for a slight chance (10-20%) of light snow showers in far north and northeast MO. No accumulation is expected at this time. Northwest winds will again be blustery on Friday, with NBM ensemble guidance showing a 40-70% chance of wind gusts over 35 mph, with the greatest values across northwest MO and northeast KS.

An potent cold front is still on track to pass through the region Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing a colder lobe of very chilly and dry Arctic air. The forecast has trended drier, with no mentionable PoPs forecast with the frontal passage at this stage. However, the short- lived blast of very chilly Arctic air will impact the region Saturday into Sunday.

Current ensemble guidance shows 850 mb temperatures falling to around the 5-10th percentiles. This will result in below-normal (by 10-15 degrees) high temperatures Saturday in the lower 20s to lower 30s from northeast to southwest, respectively. Overnight lows on Sunday morning will range from the middle single digits to middle teens on Sunday morning with accompanying wind chills in the +5F to -10F range, with the coldest values again over far northern and northeastern Missouri.

As the overall synoptic pattern remains fairly progressive, the very chilly temperatures will not last very long. As H5 ridging increases to our west, the coldest of the air will be shunted northeast of the forecast area. Temperatures will respond by moderating back towards normal mid- January values on Sunday and Monday, but will still be around five degrees below average. Dry conditions will also persist during this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Isolated to widely scattered rain will develop between 00-06z Wednesday as a cold front passes through the region. Have maintained PROB30 groups for light rain at MCI, MKC, and IXD for this period. Low-level dry air will keep cloud bases mainly between 5 and 10kft during this period, followed by rising cloud bases and clearing skies thereafter. Winds through 00z will be steady from the W-SW around 10 kts. Following the frontal passage, winds will become NW and eventually N and increase, sustained at 12-16 kts with gusts to 25-30 kts after 12z Wednesday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.