textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Blustery northwest winds will relax tonight with a return of seasonably chilly temperatures expected through Thursday night.

- An Arctic cold front will pass through the region Friday, bringing breezy northwest winds. There is a 50-80% chance of wind gusts over 30 mph Friday afternoon. There is a low chance (10-20%) of seeing flurries or a brief snow shower across northern Missouri, but no accumulation is expected.

- A brief bitter blast of very chilly air will impact the area on Saturday. There is a 60-100% of high temperatures below 30 degrees and a 40-80% chance of subzero wind chill values Sunday morning.

- Temperatures will slowly moderate back towards normal January values beginning Sunday into the first half of next week, with continued dry weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Following the passage of a cold front early this morning, blustery NW winds will persist through this afternoon, with gusts of 30-35 mph expected. Winds will relax this evening as surface high pressure descends southward from the Upper Midwest and briefly becomes centered over the region. The surface high will shift east of the region Thursday, allowing slightly warmer southerly return flow to commence. Temperatures will be near typical January values on Thursday into Friday.

On Friday, a robust Arctic cold front will begin to pass through the region. While moisture near the ground will be lacking, there may be enough forcing and mid-level moisture present to squeeze flurries or isolated light snow showers Friday afternoon, especially across northern MO. The odds of this occurring are still quite low (around 10-20%) but will be need to watched over the next 24-36 hours. At this time, no snow accumulation or travel impacts are expected. However, if low- level moisture increases, the potential for bursts of heavier snow showers will as well. Gradient winds will be especially breezy as well from the northwest. Latest NBM ensemble guidance shows a 50-80% of wind gusts over 30 mph on Friday, with the greatest values in northeast KS and northwest MO.

Following the passage of the Arctic cold front, a progged 1038mb surface high will accompany a deep H5 troughing into the Central Plains. Temperatures at 850 mb will fall to around the 5th to 10th percentiles. This will yield temperatures well- below freezing and about 10-15 degrees below normal. NBM ensemble guidance shows at 60-100% of high temperatures below 30 degrees and a 50-80% chance of low temperatures Sunday morning below 10 degrees from north to south, respectively. Combined with steady NW winds, there will also be a 40-80% chance of subzero wind chill values on Sunday morning.

The H5 troughing will begin to flatten to more of a zonal NW flow pattern from Sunday into early next week. Temperatures will slowly begin to moderate back towards normal January values. The broadly anti-cyclonic synoptic regime will keep conditions dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Gusty N to NW post-frontal winds, sustained at 15-25 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts, will gradually relax later this afternoon and early this evening to around 5-10 kts. Winds will become light and variable during the 06-15z Thursday window as SW surface flow returns. By 15-17z Thursday, winds will become steady from the SW around 7-10 kts. Other than some isolated CU with bases around 3kft this afternoon, skies will be mostly clear through late tonight, with high cirrus cloud coverage increasing after 06z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.