textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of widespread fog with dense fog possible tomorrow morning. The most favorable areas for dense fog seem to be east of I- 35, north of HWY-36.

- Near-record warmth expected today and Saturday. Cloud cover and fog continues to lower confidence in the temperature forecast.

- Chances (20-70%) for scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast Saturday night and Sunday. No severe anticipated. Rainfall amounts will generally be under a half an inch.

- Brief snow showers or even sleet may occur Sunday afternoon/evening (mainly north of HWY-36) after a strong cold front moves through the area, but no impactful accumulations are expected.

- Windy conditions (25-35 mph wind gusts) are expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Wind chills on Sunday night and Monday morning will be near zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Another day of very warm conditions with highs ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. A few spotty areas of fog may linger (mainly for northeastern MO) through the afternoon hours, however impacts are expected to be fairly minimal. Mid to low-level clouds will gradually clear out this afternoon from southwest to northeast while some upper level clouds (seen on a visible Geocolor satellite shot) move in from the Great Plains Region this afternoon/evening. A few records may be in trouble this afternoon as the southwestern half of our CWA has clear skies.

The synoptic pattern is defined by broad mid to upper level ridging across the U.S. At the surface, the system that brought a weak cold front through the area tracks east/northeast into the Great Lakes Region. As we transition into the late evening, a surface high will track to the southeast towards IL reorienting our winds to the south. As our temperatures cool to the crossover temperature and winds weaken, this will set the stage for fog yet again. Widespread fog is expected with dense fog possible across the area. The HREF gives a 40-60% chance for visibilities less than a quarter-mile extending as far south as Clinton (southern fringes of our CWA). Models suggest the fog begins to burn off during the late morning hours into the early afternoon, similar to the past few days. Saturday will be the last day for widespread warm conditions as highs range from the low 60s to low 70s. There is some uncertainty concerning temperatures as a leading H700 shortwave, collocated with a swathe of moisture, could result in fairly extensive cloud coverage hindering the effects of daytime heating. This could keep high temperatures just below record temperatures for tomorrow.

Our attention then shifts to late Saturday into Sunday with a stout mid to upper level trough, moving east along the western U.S./Canadian border, dipping into the lower 48. As it begins to track south, it will deepen and push a robust surface cold front towards/and through the area. There will be multiple hazards to note in association with this front.

Showers and thunderstorms:

Late Saturday evening into the overnight hours southwesterly winds out ahead of the boundary will result in a chance (20-40%) for light rain showers. Isentropic ascent seen on the 300K surface suggests widespread showers and storms across the area. Extended hi-res models keep showers lingering through early Sunday morning. Into the afternoon as the front moves through the area, it will then provide lift for additional showers through the afternoon. There may also be a few isolated thunderstorms as well given the ample shear and bits of instability. No severe is anticipated as instability still remains on the order of a few hundred (up to 400 J/kg) joules per kilogram of MUCAPE. The most favorable areas for thunderstorms seem to be east of I-35 with better chances to the east/southeast of our area. Rainfall accumulations for Sunday stay under a half of an inch.

Wind gusts:

As the front moves through the area Sunday morning into the afternoon, fairly windy conditions can be expected. Wind gusts ranging from 25-35 mph can be expected as sounding show anywhere from 30-40 kts at the top of the mixed layer. The LREF only gives a 20-40% chance of a few areas along the MO/KS border of reaching wind gusts greater than 40 mph. When increased to wind gusts greater than advisory level (45 mph), chances become virtually nonexistent. For now, the need for headlines does not seem necessary, but it will be fairly windy.

Light snow showers:

With the cold front ushering in a much colder air mass into Sunday evening, there is a potential for a few brief, light snow showers primarily for areas north of HWY-36. A few model soundings indicate the potential for a transition to sleet or ice pellets just before the snow. Given the recently warm surface temperatures, any wintry precip that falls on the backside of this front will most likely not accumulate.

Cold temperatures:

Late Sunday into Monday morning on the backside of the cold front, expect much colder temperatures. Early Monday lows will range in the preteens to upper teens with single digit wind chills above and below zero. Highs for Monday rebound to the low 20s to just below freezing. This will be a remarkable ~30-40 degree difference in two days.

For most of next week, expect roller coaster temperatures as they fluctuate above and below seasonal averages. Tuesday highs warm up much closer to seasonal averages. By Thursday, another mid to upper level trough, moving through the Great Lakes Region, pushes a cold front through the area returning us below seasonal averages. Additionally, a high-amplitude mid to upper level ridge over the western U.S. slowly tracks east, which suggests the potential for a warm up heading into the weekend/early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are present across the area to start the TAF period. A few locations still reporting conditions as low as LIFR are anticipated to improve heading into the afternoon hours. A few upper level clouds may approach from the west this afternoon/evening. Winds will become light and variable as we lose daytime heating and reorient to a more southerly direction. Another round of fog is anticipated during the overnight hours into Saturday morning which could bring pockets of very low visbilities and IFR- LIFR ceilings. There is low confidence in where the dense fog will be so, I did not completely tank conditions. Similar to the past few days, conditions seem to improve by the late morning into early afternoon hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.