textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong/Severe storms continue in northern MO through the evening.

- Windy conditions continue through the evening, with wind gusts as high as 35-40 mph areawide.

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon into Friday evening, with all severe hazards possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Presently, the surface low is situated over northern MO, and continues to lift towards the northeast. Its associated warm front continues to push northward, while the cold front moves through northwestern MO. Thunderstorms have initiated along the boundary, with additional showers/storms developing within the warm sector in northern MO. The warm sector environment remains favorable for discrete, strong cells in the short term, with effective shear around 30-35 kts and adequate MUCAPE of around 1500 J/kg. The primary concern with these storms is damaging wind and hail, but a tornado can't be ruled out, as low level rotation remains favorable with 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. However, greater potential for a tornado remains further east/northeast. Thunderstorm potential will remain for northwestern and northern MO through sunset, before decreasing going into the overnight. Beyond the severe threat, winds remain strong, with gusts up to 40-45 mph being reported at sites across the forecast area. Gusts will begin to die down around sunset, and winds will gradually calm through the night as the pressure gradient eases with the departure of the surface low.

Tomorrow prompts the greatest concern for the short term forecast period, with the potential for severe weather during the afternoon and into the evening. An upper level trough is progged to dig across the northern Plains, with a coincident surface low developing off the lee of the Rockies during the early hours of Friday. As this trough progresses eastward through the day, the surface low will maintain a similar track as the low today, lifting across northwestern MO with its attendant warm front surging northward. Also similar to today, there is the potential for development of discrete cells in the warm sector, especially across north/north-central MO out ahead of the cold front. The severe threat in this area remains conditional, as greater cloud cover forecasted across the central US at this time decreases confidence in cap erosion and building instability. However, if storms are able to initiate, they will form in an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8.5 C/km), strong low-level SRH (150-300 m2/s2), and ample effective shear (40-50 kts). CAMs currently have forecast CAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg for northern MO, with some CAMs like the NAM forecasting CAPE as high as 3000 J/kg. Going into the afternoon tomorrow, will have to keep an eye out on the mesoscale environment to monitor any storm development, as primary hazards with these discrete storm modes would be damaging wind, severe hail, and tornadoes. The primary threat for severe weather will occur around sunset, as the cold front invigorates the development of a line of thunderstorms that will push eastward from eastern KS through MO into the evening. The passage of this line will remain brief enough that widespread heavy rainfall is not a concern. However, thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall could create some localized flash flooding, especially in areas that saw significant rainfall yesterday and urban areas. With this line, the primary hazard will be damaging winds, with additional concerns for severe hail and some tornadoes embedded within the primary line.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

The upper level trough and coincident surface low will lift towards the Great Lakes as surface high pressure builds in going into Saturday. Temperatures will cool into the mid to upper 50s with northwesterly winds that will persist through Sunday. Conditions will remain clear until Monday evening, where low end chances for precipitation (20-40%) pop up with weak forcing from an upper level trough. Amplified ridging will follow on Tuesday, before the next chances for precipitation increase Wednesday evening through Thursday with an oncoming shortwave trough (30-60%). Temperatures will remain around seasonally normal through the long term, warming through midweek.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Westerly winds are expected to gradually diminish this evening, becoming variable and light overnight before shifting to southeasterly by early morning. The timing of the wind speed increase should diminish any fog concerns at the four terminals, however, it is possible that fog could be of concern around KIRK early tomorrow morning (10Z-13Z timeframe). Low CIGs should build into the area tomorrow morning resulting in IFR conditions at all four terminals through the day. Winds are also expected to become southerly through the morning and increase in magnitude with gusts up to 30 kts possible through the afternoon.

Showers and storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon across southeastern NE, northwestern MO, and northeastern KS before advancing east/southeastward across the area. They will impact the terminals late tomorrow afternoon creating heavy rainfall and reduced visibility concerns. The exact timing is still a little uncertain, thus have opted for a PROB30 group rather than a TEMPO. As the event gets closer, a TEMPO will almost certainly be needed. A cold front will pass through the area with the storms resulting in a wind shift to northwesterly, but confidence in this occurring by 00Z is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ008-016-017- 024-025-032-033. KS...None.