textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions over the next several days, with high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

- Several rounds of rainfall chances through the end of the week, with widespread rain chances peaking at 70-90% Thursday night into Friday. Heavy rainfall and flooding is a concern, with a Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday.

- Temperatures return to the 90s this weekend, with 100+ degree heat indices potentially making a comeback as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning show upper- level ridging across the western US and troughing pushing south through the Great Lakes region and into the upper Ohio River Valley, while a tropical disturbance sits off the Gulf Coast. At the surface, high pressure is building over the Northern Plains in the wake of a cold front that is now south of the Red River Valley. Missouri and Kansas sit within a region of northwest flow, with clear skies early this morning. To the northwest of the region, showers and storms are forming across Nebraska, slowly drifting towards northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas.

Temperatures/Heat Indices:

Much cooler, drier air has settled into the area, and will remain in place through the end of the work week. While there is still some notable spread between NBM members for temperatures on Thursday and Friday due to cloud cover and influence from multiple rounds of potential showers and storms, all guidance points towards much drier air remaining in place with temperatures between upper 70s and mid-80s all three days.

Guidance is in agreement that temperatures go back up this weekend, with a notable upward trend beginning Saturday pushing temperatures back into the mid-to-upper 90s Saturday-Monday. CPC has 70-90% confidence in above normal temperatures continuing through the last week of July, and global ensembles have 55-65% chances for exceeding heat indices of 105 degrees on Sunday and Monday in and around Kansas City as southerly winds advect soupy tropical moisture into the area in the low-levels. Enjoy the cooler, drier weather while it lasts!

Rain Chances Today/Thursday:

The aforementioned showers and storms developing across Nebraska early Wednesday morning are forming along the northern periphery of the 700mb high pressure, with broad isentropic ascent as well as pockets of CVA being advected within the westerly flow on the north side of that circulation. As this activity slowly spreads across eastern Nebraska, there is a low chance (<10%) that far northwestern portions of Missouri and northeast Kansas get clipped by some decaying showers this morning into early this afternoon. Many CAMs depict at least some light showery activity on reflectivity, but sounding analysis shows that there is a deep layer of dry air above the surface that will need to be overcome for precip to reach the ground, so if activity does persist as far south as our area, it would most likely begin as virga showers that don't reach the ground. That being said, the RAP does show a compact vort max/embedded shortwave moving through the flow and pushing into far northern Missouri by this afternoon, so better forcing may allow the dry air to be overcome this afternoon and some scattered showers to reach the ground.

Another shortwave is progged to move through the flow into the Central Plains tonight, with showers and thunderstorms developing in Kansas and Nebraska late and bringing precip chances early Thursday morning. Rain chances begin increasing just before sunrise, with the highest rain chances (30-60%) confined to areas along and west of I-49/I-29 during the morning hours on Thursday. The complex of showers and storms that develop is expected to break apart into the afternoon hours on Thursday, with some areas seeing remnant scattered showers through the afternoon but with overall coverage decreasing with time.

Smoke:

Hazy conditions have set into the area, with the northwest flow aloft continuing to propel smoke into the area before slowly moving it southeast out of the area this afternoon/evening. The nocturnal inversion may trap a marginal amount of smoke near the surface, but significant visibility reductions are not expected in association with this activity, mostly just hazy horizons and potentially a faint smell of smoke early this morning before mixing begins. Any rain that occurs would act to bring the smoke particles down to the surface, maybe leaving your car a little dirty like the pollen does when it rains in the spring, but rain would also help to clear the smoke pollutants out of the atmospheric column and clear the haze out faster.

Heavy Rainfall Possible Thursday and Especially Friday:

While localized areas of efficient/heavy rainfall will be possible on Thursday, Friday appears to be a more conducive day for widespread measurable rainfall and flash flooding. A stronger shortwave moves through the Plains and into Missouri around daybreak on Friday, with the MCS most likely to develop upstream of us along the nose of the LLJ and reach maturity as it moves into our forecast area. NAM and GFS show an increasing plume of IVT moving into the area during the overnight hours, with the best moisture transport potentially occurring during the daytime hours on Friday. Model soundings continue to indicate efficient warm rain processes will dominate with 2+ inches of PW available in the mid- and upper-levels, so despite some continued questions surrounding coverage of storms on Friday and how fast convection may dissipate and/or redevelop, the ingredients for heavy rainfall all have the potential to be present and overlap.

The low-confidence, but potential higher-impact scenario that could unfold on Friday is one where storms are able to train along a pseudo-boundary that sets up somewhere across the state of Missouri. It remains difficult to pin down whether this scenario will occur without more definitive high-res guidance resolving mesoscale features, but we will continue to monitor as Friday approaches to identify potential axes of heaviest rainfall. Rainfall during the day on Thursday may also prime the soils for flooding on Friday. NBM depicts a wide footprint of 25-50% chances of >2" of rainfall across northern Missouri, including the Kansas City metro. Despite the uncertainties that still surround Friday, much of the area has maintained a Slight (Level 2 of 4) Risk of excessive rainfall for Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with high clouds and light northeast winds. Scattered showers are pushing into northwest Missouri to start the TAF period, but a layer of dry air should prevent most to all of these showers from reaching the ground, though virga will likely be visible especially near STJ. Clouds will become more widespread into the overnight hours tonight, with showers and storms expected to move in after 06Z, though confidence in timing is too low to include mention in TAF at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.