textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- 30-50% rain chances this morning along and west of I-49/I-29 as the decaying remnants of showers in the Central Plains push into eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

- Widespread measurable rainfall expected late tonight into Friday, with accumulations up to an inch in most locations. Localized corridors up to 2-4" will be possible, which would increase flash flood concerns for these locations.

- Temperatures return to the upper 90s this weekend, with 100+ degree heat indices making a comeback as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Current Conditions & Synoptic Overview:

At the surface, high pressure has built across the Midwest, with ridging aloft across the western US and troughing along the East Coast. The northeast quadrant of the ridge aloft is being suppressed by a shortwave trough ejecting across the High Plains, and this shortwave is the forcing mechanism for a cluster of showers across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas early this morning, as well as a narrow line of weak radar echoes ahead of the shortwave across southeast Nebraska and into northwest Missouri.

Rain Chances Today and Tonight:

As the high pressure slides east, surface and low-level winds turn southeasterly across our area today. The shortwave is progged to continue slowly moving across Kansas and Nebraska through the day today. A leading vort max ahead of the shortwave moves across west-central Missouri this morning, bringing 15-50% chances of showers with it as activity moves from Kansas into western Missouri. Coverage appears to become increasingly scattered with this activity as it progresses further east and south, so many areas will likely stay dry, especially the northeast portions of the forecast area.

850mb dew points increase gradually through the day, but sounding analysis indicates that much of the area will still have a fairly deep layer of dry air to overcome before precip reaches the ground. This decreases confidence that areas with showers visible on radar will see rain down at the surface this morning into this afternoon, with virga potentially dominating for most of the day. There is little to no instability available to help deepen the convection, so precip is expected to fall as light showers today, with an isolated rumble of thunder possible in the far southern portion of the CWA. HREF/REFS mean QPF aligns with these expectations, with a very light QPF footprint confined to areas generally along and west of I-49/I-29.

Sounding profiles begin to moisten by this evening, when isentropic ascent begins increasing and another leading vort max pushes into the area ahead of the shortwave. Showery activity is expected to develop in northern Missouri along the narrow dCVA axis this evening due to the enhanced forcing, but the main show for rainfall won't begin until late tonight into Friday morning.

Heavy Rainfall Potential Late Tonight Into Friday:

Lee cyclogenesis in the Plains intensifies tonight, lifting a warm front north along the 30kt nocturnal LLJ into southern Missouri by Friday morning. Moisture advection intensifies with the LLJ as well, exceeding 2.25" PW values by daybreak on Friday. The main precip shield/MCS develops in eastern Kansas after midnight, with most guidance suggesting the complex reaches the western edge of the forecast area between 3AM-6AM Friday. Initially, the complex should move more of a west-east direction as rain develops along the nose of the LLJ, but movement is expected to pivot to move more northwest-southeast through the morning and into the afternoon as the shortwave sags southeast through the day. The isentropic ascent is strongest around and just after 12Z Friday, when convection is expected to be strongest and most widespread.

There are varying signals for how Friday may evolve. High-res guidance suggests the system will generally be progressive, but may see redevelopment behind the initial rain shield. Generally, rain will be primarily driven by isentropic ascent rather than pure convective processes, so stratiform rain processes will likely dominate for much of the event. Instability is meager (<500 J/kg), so there will likely be a few embedded rumbles of thunder and corridors of deeper towers with more efficient convective rain rates at times, but overall heavy rainfall and flooding threats are expected to remain localized to the narrow corridors of deep convection where rates can exceed 1.5-2" per hour. It may not be a complete all-day washout in all areas, but most should expect rain through the morning hours and then at least on-and-off through the afternoon and into the evening.

High-res ensembles also suggest that widespread accumulations will be measurable but not overly impressive or concerning, with most areas getting less than an inch of rain. However, HREF and REFS LPMMs do show a few highly localized swaths of accumulations up to 5" where that deep convection occurs, which would be reasonable to expect within such a moist environment.

Temperatures Climb This Weekend:

Rain and the associated cloud cover will help to limit temperatures today and tomorrow, so highs have been dropped a few degrees accordingly, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The ridge aloft recovers from the shortwave intrusion and re-strengthens, with southwesterly low-level flow once again advecting hot air back into the region. Hot and humid conditions settle back into the area Saturday-Monday, with temperatures in the upper 90s and dew points in the low to mid-70s. This brings us back to heat indices in the 100-110 degree range, which means a Heat Advisory may become necessary before too much longer.

Next Round of Rain Chances Sunday/Monday:

While there is still considerable uncertainty in the location and details of features beyond Saturday, guidance does indicate that a favorable setup for severe weather to our north in Iowa on Sunday, when another shortwave may impinge on the northeast quadrant of the ridge and increase rain chances. Current NBM PoPs do not tell this story well, and the current SPC Day 4 15% Risk remains confined to the Upper Midwest, but machine learning guidance pulls an area of 15-30% severe weather probabilities as far south as northern Missouri on Sunday, so it's possible we get clipped in our north by the MCS remnants from areas further north. Considering the hot and humid air mass that will be in place, if forcing shifts slightly further south, the environment would certainly support thunderstorms, so we will continue to monitor future guidance suites for potential southward shifts. The other thing this system could do is increase cloud cover on Monday, which would be beneficial in reducing temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are likely through the forecast. An area of light rain currently over NE KS will diminish as it tracks east this evening/overnight. Another area of precipitation will develop overnight/tomorrow morning over central to eastern KS and slowly track to the east. Adjust the timing back a few hours and also change the prevailing -SHRA to VCSH. Coverage and intensity of this round of precipitation has trended less/weaker.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.