textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures return Sunday, with highs in the 70s expected on Monday and Tuesday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Tuesday along with a potential for flooding.

UPDATE

Issued at 449 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A few local details on the SWODY3 issuance.

Deterministic model solutions are coming into decent agreement on the propagation of a strong H5 trough ejecting from the southwestern CONUS that will promote strong dCVA into the Front Range Monday, with resultant surface cyclone deepening and pushing across the Plains into the western Great Lakes Region through Tuesday. Strong jet streak should be associated with this system leading to abundant deep layer shear Tuesday afternoon and evening across the lower Missouri River Valley. Convergence drastically increases along the cold front Tuesday evening. The overall kinematic environment can be supportive of taking updrafts and turning them severe, with plenty of lift and forcing. Similar to the previous event Friday into early Saturday, is the question of where will the warm front position itself early Tuesday and how the overall warm sector evolves. Strong isentropic upglide is expected Tuesday, favorable for dense cloud cover that could limit insolation, relying heavily a strong theta-e transport for instability. What is uncertain at this time is the strength of a potential EML as this system develops, and its implications for capping on Tuesday and moderating mid-level lapse rates. If we end up in a setup with deep layer moisture transport, lapse rates may be underwhelming, resulting in meager updrafts especially during the late afternoon and early evening. If a stronger updraft is able to break through any cap or some feature provides robust lapse rates, kinematic support for a supercell storm mode is possible, presenting all hazard types during the afternoon. Activity may have to hold off though until later in the evening on Tuesday along the main cold front, and also wait for the stronger dCVA and broadscale lift to provide enough forcing, which at that time may lead more to an MCS. The Level 3 enhanced risk in the SPC SWODY3 look for our far eastern counties in central Missouri and northeastern Missouri appears to the favored corridor based on current guidance for diurnal heating to provide the best lapse rates in this setup, with the level 2 slight risk having plenty of forcing and moisture, but may not be as thermodynamically robust. In addition to severe thunderstorm potential, probabilities for PWATs increasing beyond 1.50 inches on Tuesday have been trending upward. And with strong forcing through the evening, is providing a setup for heavy rainfall. Depending on how the 850-300mb mean wind vector aligns, storm training could lead to heavy rainfall and flooding issues across the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current 500-hPa analysis shows a shortwave moving across the eastern portion of the CONUS with a cutoff low spinning just off of Baja California. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is situated in the Southern and Central Plains, which has brought light winds to the area beneath clear skies. This combination will allow temperatures to drop into the mid-30s by early Sunday morning. By sunrise, the high pressure will have shifted to the southeast of the area, which will incite southwesterly surface flow and strong WAA causing temperatures to rise into the upper 60s areawide on Sunday (some locations may even push into the low 70s). Strong WAA will continue into Monday with temperatures climbing to near record values with the MCI record high for Monday at 77F set in 2021. NBM probabilities show a 50-60% chance of topping this record. To the north, a system will move across the northern Great Lakes, leaving behind a cold/stationary front oriented northeast to southwest across central IA, potentially clipping the far northern extent of the area, which will be important for future pattern evolution. However, the warm temperatures will continue into Tuesday with highs potentially soaring into the 80s for the first time this year (the record of 84F at MCI from 1967 should be safe).

Tuesday also brings the next chance for precipitation and storms to the area. The cutoff low that is currently spinning in the Pacific off the Mexican coast will begin to propagate eastward Tuesday morning and transition to an open wave. Mid-level southerly flow ahead of the wave will initiate moisture return from the Gulf through the day on Tuesday allowing 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE to build along and south of the previously mentioned frontal boundary in central IA. As the wave moves across the Southern Plains, deep layer shear values will climb to 40-50 kts beneath the left exit region of an upper jet streak. What remains to be seen is how the timing of the wave will impact the severe weather potential. If the wave slows a bit and the upper-level jet streak does not arrive until overnight, instability values would be decreased before deep layer shear increases and the potential for severe storms would be diminished a bit. However, if storms are able to initiate before sunset, they will be aided by the nose a 50-60 kt nocturnal LLJ working its way into the area. At this point, the setup looks to have the potential to produce strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening, thus the SPC has the southeastern half of the area in a Day 4 Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Tuesday.

Regardless of whether severe storms are able to occur with this system, precipitation will occur Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday, which brings up another note of concern with this particular pattern. PWAT values will be quite elevated (1.2"-1.4") and in the 99th percentile for this time of year. This combined with the trough being positively tilted and shear vectors being oriented parallel to the stationary/slow moving cold front poses a threat for training storms and the risk of flooding Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

By Wednesday morning, the cold front will sweep across the area, bringing an end to the precipitation and dropping high temperatures into the low-to-mid 50s. However, these relatively cooler temperatures will not last long as southerly surface flow and WAA returns by Thursday allowing temperatures to rebound into the 60s through the end of the week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with clear to mostly clear skies. Light winds overnight will become southwesterly mid to late tomorrow morning and increase with gusts of 20 to possibly as high as 25kts through the afternoon. Winds diminish near sunset and back slightly to south to south- southwest.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.