textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Isolated to scattered storms possibly this afternoon into the evening hours. Best chances for storms are along and north of highway 36, though evolution remains somewhat unclear.

* Patchy fog possible tonight in areas that see rainfall this evening.

* Near seasonal temperatures expected late this week into the weekend, but could see periodic chances of storms as waves pass through in northwest flow aloft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Complicated near term forecast with a cluster of storms across eastern Nebraska diving southeast. These storms have developed an MCV, which may keep the trajectory southeast; however, 850-300 mb mean wind is more west to east, and complex may try to develop farther east with time. Have started to see signs of development along outflow- convergence boundary in the vicinity of highway 34. This activity should largely move west to east following the mean flow and the CAP gradient/ but may try to build south with time as the boundary moves south. Along the boundary, there is the potential for a funnel cloud or two, especially if storms are able to root along the slow moving boundary.

Abundant cloud cover has limited instability across much of Missouri today, but partial clearing after 1730Z may lead to increasing instability along and north of highway 36. Elevated CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 40-45 knots may still create a severe weather threat with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats across northern Missouri through the 20-02Z time frame. Storm movement should be sufficient (25-35 knots) that flash flooding threat should be fairly limited with the exception of slow moving storms that are tied to the outflow boundary.

With all the said, if storms are able to develop in what looks to be a weakly capped environment across eastern Kansas, storms may try to build farther south and east though instability may be fairly limited.

Weak surface ridge across southern Minnesota is expected to build south towards southern Iowa overnight. This will lead to light northeast winds and the potential for fog to develop in areas that see rain this evening. Greatest likelihood will be across northern Missouri.

Weak flow may limit mixing tomorrow morning and patchy fog may linger a bit longer than one might think. Surface ridge is gradually expected to shift east tomorrow and with more clearing, expect temperatures to warm closer to seasonal norms for this time of year.

Shortwave dropping down in northwest flow could lead to additional thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest on Friday. Upper level ridge across the western US strengthens this weekend, though periodic ridge riders lead to periodic pops through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A boundary from storms to the north is progressing through the terminals which may bring some northerly gusts through over the next couple of hours. Winds then become light and variable through the overnight as MVFR CIGs settle in. BR/FG is expected to develop during the overnight with relatively minor VIS impacts across the area although CIGs are expected to sink to IFR levels. Should CIGs not lower or sky coverage remain less dense, VIS impacts may be more significant. VIS impacts across STJ where more RA/TSRA occurred is expected to be lower. CIGs and VIS improve after sunrise tomorrow with SCT MVFR CIGs expected after mid morning. Winds remain light and variable through most of the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.