textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect until Wednesday evening for far east-central Kansas into central Missouri.

* Low chances (10-30%) of overnight showers and storms through midweek, primarily across northeastern Kansas and northern Missouri.

* Rain chances increase late week (50-70%), generally north of US-36.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Upper-level ridging continues over the southern CONUS with a stationary surface boundary draping across southern Iowa and the High Plains. Overnight showers and storms that developed along this boundary as the low-level jet ramped up were carried to the southeast, resulting in areas of light rain and widespread cloud cover continuing after sunrise this morning. Cloud cover may once again mitigate some of the heat today, primarily north of the I-70 corridor. This afternoon, a shortwave is expected to roll across northern Missouri. Confidence in adequate moisture advection into the area is lower, however, so thinking a rather low-end probability of seeing any shower or storm during this timeframe. Even so, this combined with the cloud cover possibility, was not confident in issuing a heat product north of the existing Extreme Heat Warning today. Expecting peak heat indices in the 105-110F range in the Extreme Heat Warning area with heat indices around 100-105F possible further north.

Little changes to the synoptic pattern are expected over the coming days with the upper-level ridge remaining while several shortwaves traverse the mean flow. Moreover, the surface boundary looks to take the "stationary" part of its name to heart with only slight bobs to the north and south through midweek. The corridor surrounding this boundary will be one to watch over the coming evenings with nearing shortwaves and the nightly uptick of the low-level jet. Generally speaking, models have struggled to latch on to overnight and early morning shower/storm potential as during earlier forecasts. We have seen this film before, though, and rather recently at that. In fact, the next several overnight/early morning periods appear to be reruns of the past two mornings where shower/storm development was poorly resolved by CAMs but occurred nonetheless. Consequently, opted to once again include 10-30% PoPs in our north during the early morning hours through midweek...should CAMs better resolve this potential, would consider increasing PoPs in the north as well as possibly bringing some PoPs closer to the KC metro. A marginal (level 1 of 5) severe risk will also exist with elevated overnight storms in the form of damaging wind gusts. Due to potential convective debris bleeding into the the solar heating period, no additional heat headlines were issued this forecast cycle, and the issuance of such products will continue to be taken day-by-day (or forecast cycle by forecast cycle, if you will). That said, even though confidence in reaching Heat Advisory criteria is low, it will still be hot and vulnerable populations should continue to exercise heat precautions.

The stationary boundary will eventually crawl south as cold front, most likely sometime between late Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday morning. The passage of this front could reduce daily high temperatures by as much as 5-10F along and north of the US-36 corridor. Further south, it may not be until the weekend before there is some reprieve from the heat. More rain chances arrive as the front moves southward as well, although the US-36 corridor and north look to be the main beneficiaries.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period under mostly clear skies. South southwesterly gusts from earlier this afternoon have relaxed, but gusts up to 20 to 25 knots should resume by around 4z tonight before relaxing again by late Tuesday morning, with SSW winds around 10-12 knots continuing. Terminals should remain dry, but cannot completely rule out isolated showers Tuesday morning, especially in the STJ area.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.