textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered rain/storms are expected through tonight (70-90% chances at their peak this afternoon/evening).

- Additional chances (20-40%) of showers/storms will continue into Monday.

- Warmer and more humid conditions will return for mid-week next week, with heat indices rising to the 90s to near 100 degrees across the area for at least a few days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The upper level low is slowly moving into Missouri early this morning and with it multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected throughout the day and into tonight. Rain and storms will be isolated to scattered early this morning. At times throughout the day it showers could become more scattered to widespread as mid level WAA surges northward. This isentropic ascent will generate repeated rounds of rain and thunderstorms throughout the day and into Monday morning. There is uncertainty in when each "round" of scattered showers will develop and for many it will likely not feel like individual round with defined breaks and more like heavy to moderate rain with periods of drizzle in between. The main hazards for the day will be lightning and heavy rain. PWATs are between 1.5 to 2 inches across the forecast area, which is high for this time of year. Flooding will continue to be a concern with the heavy rain threat, especially across northern MO where there has already been multiple days of rain. It will take a lot less rain across the north in comparison to central MO which has seen far less rain. Given the uncertainty in exact timing and location of storm development, its hard to say which areas will receive the most rain. Looking at model QPF, central MO seems to have the best potential for 2 inches or more of rain (including the far southern counties in the EAX forecast area). Everywhere generally can expect around a half an inch to 1 inch of rain. Given the uncertainty above this could fluctuation and there could be an axis of heavy rain that over performs giving more rain than forecast. Considering all this, holding off for now on an Flood Watch. Since its difficult to pin down where storms will occur, there's not place to draw a watch without throwing the entire forecast area in which would be overkill in this instance.

Showers and thunderstorms will linger into Monday as the cut off low pulls out to the northeast and a trailing shortwave moves through the larger synoptic flow. Showers and storms in the morning will be largely benign similar to Sunday. By the afternoon there should be a lull in activity with rain chances returning for Monday evening/night(20-40% chc). The potential for storm development with the shortwave in the evening/overnight will be the time to keep an eye on for stronger to severe storms. With the continues WAA there is a potential for the environment to recover and destabilize. This potential for stronger storms is very conditional. If rain is slow to exit in the morning and instability stays low then this will little to no storms are expected.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

For the rest of the week, aloft ridging builds back in across the eastern CONUS and a trough remains over the western CONUS putting KS and MO between these two features. With sustained WAA and south to southwest flow, heat/humidity build into the area. Confidence continues to grow for dew points in the mid to upper 70s across northern MO and eastern KS. Combined with the low 90 degree temperatures heat indices are expected to be in the mid 90s to low 100s. Heat headlines may be needed for next week (roughly from Tuesday through Thursday) if this trend continues.

Much of this time should be largely dry, but there will be some shortwave troughs moving through the larger flow aloft which is throwing some low chances POPS in from time to time (10-20%). Confidence in any rain and the timing is low.

Looking into the latter half of the week, guidance has a low pressure system advancing across the Great Lakes Region and dragging a cold front through the Plains. This should bring some relief to the hot and humid conditions as well as some rain/storms. The exact timing of the passage of the cold front is still yet to be determined as guidance is all over the place. So long and short there is a light and the end of the tunnel when it comes to the heat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A few scattered showers are lingering around northern MO, however, no impacts are being seen at the terminals as of 12 AM CDT. Showers and storms are expected to develop by early morning, spreading northward through sunrise. MVFR CIGs should accompany the showers/storms. CIGs are expected to improve by late morning and early afternoon. Scattered storms are expected in the afternoon, however, uncertainty remains in coverage, so impacts at the terminals are also uncertain. As such, have opted for a PROB30. SHRA and scattered storms may continue through the afternoon, but confidence is not high enough at this time to include in the TAFs.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.