textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds are expected to accelerate through the afternoon and evening. Gusts across the I-70 corridor around 25-35 MPH are anticipated with 30-40 MPH gusts possible across far northern MO.

- Dangerously cold air moves in through the end of the week. Single digit highs and wind chills in the -10s could pose significant cold weather hazards across the region, especially Saturday into Sunday.

- Snow is expected this weekend starting late Friday night through Saturday night. Model guidance is signaling a potential shift northward in the storm track opening up possibilities for high snow totals across the region.

UPDATE

Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Dominant northwesterly flow and high pressure across the central CONUS keeps skies dry and sunny for the next 24-48 hours. A strong push of dry cold air associated with a 500mb jet streak moves in from the Dakotas through the afternoon which starts an overall decreasing temperature trend which continues through the next several days. This pulse of cold air entered far northern MO earlier the afternoon increasing wind gusts to 30-35 MPH with a few sites recording 45+ MPH winds. A Wind Advisory continues through this evening along and north of the US-36 corridor.

Confidence remains high in the onset of colder temperatures as the week progresses. Temperatures are expected to dive sharply Thursday into Friday dropping from around 40 to around 10 respectively. This cold air mass looks to dive into southern CONUS nearly reaching the Gulf coast. Conditions across far northern MO look particularly hazardous with portions of far NE MO reaching a maximum wind chill of -15F with overnight wind chills between -25 and -30. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for portions of far northern and NE MO which encompasses Friday and Saturday. Hazardous wind chills are expected across the region primarily Saturday morning with wind chills ranging from -10 to -20 degrees.

The primary weather focus continues to be the upcoming system which is expected to bring snow to the region primarily on Saturday. The continued push of cold air from the north combined with wrap around moisture transport provides a suitable setup for accumulating snowfall to accompany the dangerously cold temperatures. There remains several uncertainties as the deep push of cold dry air looks to potentially reach the Gulf Coast while competing northward moisture transport, upper level lift, and subtle warm frontogenesis all work to create an environment favorable for the development of widespread accumulating snowfall.

Over the past 12-18 hours, ensemble guidance has come into better agreement shifting the track of the storm northward and opening up the opportunity for higher snowfall totals across the region. Probabilities show a 70% chance of greater than 3" of snow along and south of US-50 with a 50% chance of greater than 5". A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this area. Northward expansion of the watch may be necessary over future forecast cycles if the northward trend continues. The deterministic ECMWF also continues to be more aggressive on snow totals (although it is now joined by the NAM) than the GFS likely owing to the slower northward moisture transport in the GFS. However, given how cold it will be, snow ratios will be quite high (Kuchera ratios suggesting 20:1), so it will not take a whole lot of moisture to get a few inches of snow. Climatologically, it is difficult to achieve snow ratios much higher than 15:1; however, the deep intrusion of dry cold air might be enough to exceed these normals. Consensus across all guidance maintains a sharp gradient along the northern boundary of accumulating snowfall which depending on where that gradient positions itself could result in a significant differential in snow totals. At the moment, most guidance paints this gradient between the I-70 corridor and the US- 36 corridor with the majority suggesting it setting up more towards the north side of the I-70 corridor. This could result in large disparity in accumulations, for example 5 inches in Overland Park versus 2 inches in Kearney.

The timing of snowfall is still evolving as well with models trending later for an arrival time. Current guidance suggests that snow could begin late Friday afternoon across far east central KS and west central MO continuing to envelop the area through Saturday evening. Snow persists through the day Saturday with the greatest snowfall rates expected during the morning hours. Snow tapers off in the Saturday evening into the overnight. Following the exit of this system, cold temperatures will persist through early next week with highs in the teens and low 20s on Sunday and Monday and lows below zero Sunday night and single digits Monday night. Wind chills will be well below zero (-5 to -15) both nights. Extended guidance continues to maintain a cold and active weather pattern through the next week with multiple passing shortwaves bringing more potential opportunities for precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

For the 06z TAF package, winds will become light and variable as high pressure briefly become centered over the area. As the high translates east, winds will pick up from the W-NW during the afternoon around 5-10 kts. After 00z Friday, an Arctic cold front will being to move through the region, and winds will shift to the N and increase, with sustained wind around 8-12 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for MOZ043>046-053-054. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for MOZ005>008-015>017. KS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through late Saturday night for KSZ057-060.