textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous heat continues through the weekend, with heat indices around 100-110 degF areawide through Monday.

- Low confidence in showers/storms across northern Missouri, which could impact heat and humidity.

- Heat/humidity eases up through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Fog/mist from the early morning has effectively mixed out under clear, sunny skies with subsidence from an upper-level ridge situated over the western half of the CONUS. Surface high pressure to the south/southeast of the forecast area has aided in the transport of warm, moist air in the low levels, sending heat indices for most of the forecast area into the triple digits. Areas that remain under dense cloud cover from the morning will not see their heat indices rise as dramatically as surrounding areas, but conditions are still expected to remain muggy and uncomfortable. This will be the story through the rest of the weekend, with continued advection of warm/moist air from the south under an amplified shortwave ridge sending heat indices into the 100-110 degF range during the daytime. Overnight lows will not offer much reprieve from the heat, staying above the 70s.

Some uncertainty continues to remain with hazardous heat persisting through the early week. Embedded shortwaves in the upper-level flow will "chip away" at the upper-level ridge, placing us closer to its periphery under northwesterly flow. Under these kinds of setups, we usually see more opportunities for precipitation, with higher uncertainty in its exact timing/placement. However, with any precipitation and subsequent cloud cover, this would aid in cooling temperatures overall, meaning higher heat indices may not be realized. Such is the case Sunday/Monday, with the potential for showers/storms across the northern half of the forecast area. A good portion of CAM guidance indicates that precipitation will remain off towards the north and east of the forecast area during the day Sunday, with a continued strong signal (70-90%) of heat indices around 100-110 degF during the day in probabilistic guidance. However, by Monday, continued disturbances within the upper-level flow increase our potential for seeing either precipitation or cloud cover entering the forecast area. Presently, our PoPs remain around 10-15% across northern Missouri, which reflects the lower confidence in seeing this precise solution in the coming days. Heat headlines remain in effect through Monday evening.

After Monday, extreme heat and humidity will begin to ease up as winds shift out of the north with the passage of an upper level trough and associated surface low towards the northeast. Greater forecast deviations unfold at this point in the period, with poorer resolution of the synoptic environment. However, the general gist of the future forecast is increasing likelihood of shortwave disturbances bringing PoPs back into the forecast through midweek, with the exact timing and placement remaining uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions with southerly flow prevailing through the period. Will have to keep an eye to the north, as some high based showers may try to work into northeast Missouri after 12Z Sunday, though the trend as been closer to the Mississippi River Valley. Forecast soundings suggest potential for cumulus tomorrow will mainly be concentrated east of highway 65 after 17Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>004-011>014- 020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ005>008-015>017-024-025-033. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.