textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Hazardous heat threat continues. An Extreme Heat Warning will remain in effect through 9 PM Friday evening.

* Most areas to remain dry throughout the week. There is a chance (15-30%) for precipitation across northern/northwestern Missouri during the week.

* Shower/storm chances (30-50%) return by Saturday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

DISCUSSION:

At present, a 592 dm ridge situated over the Ohio River Valley is contributing to continued dangerous heat areawide, with southerly/southwesterly winds advected warm, moist air through the central CONUS and keeping heat indices within the triple digits. Synoptic guidance is continuing to indicate this ridge being nudged over to the east as a result of a closed low lifting across the northern CONUS, which could aid in lessening the ridge's oppressively hot influence over the northern half of our forecast area. However, as the ridge continues sliding off to the east, a deep trough persisting over the western CONUS will enhance deep south/southwesterly geostrophic flow over our area. This will aid in the continued transport of warm, moist air over our area, which will continue dangerous heat and humidity. As such, with the potential for continued heat indices at/near advisory criteria over an extended period of time, the Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect through Friday evening. However, with the synoptic pattern that is materializing, there may be a need to update headlines for our northern row of counties regarding heat. Probabilistic guidance is continuing to indicate that dewpoints and temperatures will back off across northern Missouri in the next day or two, possibly owing to the simulation of more progressive boundaries in line with surface low pressures developing off of shortwave disturbances in the upper-level flow. With these boundaries/shortwaves, there is an an associated risk for showers/storms across northern/northwestern Missouri on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, and again Thursday evening into Friday morning. However, with continued synoptic-scale subsidence as the ridge's influence persists over our area, the probability of these showers/storms having an appreciable effect on our forecast area is low. Thus, with subsequent forecasts, the exact scale and impact of this trend will need to be evaluated in further detail to determine whether or not headlines will need to be updated accordingly.

Regarding the weekend... By Friday, the upper-level ridge will have slid over towards the East Coast and deamplified under continued assault from shortwaves ejecting off the Rockies. With this, the overall risk for hazardous heat is expected to decrease as atmospheric winds gradually shift out of the west/northwest. However, there is some signal from probabilistic guidance that hazardous heat will continue into Saturday, with the LREF showing 30- 50% probabilities of exceeding triple digit heat indices under ongoing southerly flow at the low-levels. Now, whether this warrants an extension in current heat headlines is still under review, as confidence in this solution is not high at the time. The potential for showers/storms on Saturday also owes to decreased confidence in continued hazardous heat through the weekend. So, as was the case in the previous paragraph, future forecast iterations will need to analyze this trend to determine how it will impact heat headlines. Saturday evening, the greatest chances for precipitation follow along with another disturbance in the upper-level flow. Severe potential still looks to remain marginal with this activity, with poor shear despite ample CAPE and activity looking more elevated through the overnight period. Closing out the forecast period, ridging appears to build over the western third of the CONUS, with some continued opportunity for scattered PoPs with disturbances in the upper flow. However, due to the uncertainty of the forecast that far ahead in time, more precise details will become evident with subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Wind gusts will start to wind down this evening as diurnal heating comes to an end. Wind gusts will pick up again tomorrow morning along the typical diurnal curve. Still some signal in models for some LLWS tonight, but didn't see a strong enough signal for inclusion at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.