textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Light snow is expected to continue through much of the day. Snowfall rates are expected to maximize this afternoon, and wane this evening into Sunday morning.

* Well below normal temperatures are expected for the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

1045 mb arctic high has built into central MN early this morning. This high is expected to slide east today towards the western Great Lakes. Incredibly dry air originating from this arctic airmass is advecting into northern and eastern Missouri, fighting saturation from aloft as shortwave originating from parent upper low now off the baja of California build into eastern NM/west Texas. We are starting to see the dynamics win out, and as such, snow is beginning to be observed along and west of highway 65 as of 08Z. Expect the snow to gradually expand eastward this morning, but will be a gradual process.

For pops today, followed isentropic lift on the 295-300K surfaces. Weak lift across the area this morning is expected to increase into the day light hours, maximizing mid day before weakening this evening. This lift is enhanced by the right entrance region to a jet streak centered across the Ohio Valley, and late in the day the left exit region to a secondary jet streak developing across the southern plains. With shortwave trending a bit slower than expected over the last few days, dynamics now peak during the daylight hours and expect the best snow accumulations to occur through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Recent runs of the HRRR and 03 & 06Z runs of the RAP show a deformation band of more intense snow developing across eastern KS this afternoon spreading into northwest Missouri where the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) depth is maximized from the surface to nearly 550 mb. With this idealized scenario for snow production, the potential is there to see enhanced snowfall production. Areas further to the south warm slightly aloft this afternoon, limiting the depth of the DGZ.

Lift decreases across the region this evening as the shortwave to the south shifts east of the Mississippi Valley and atmospheric column dries out from northwest to southeast. This should bring an end to the snow across the region as secondary arctic push builds into the Northern Plains. A second shortwave building into Texas tonight threatens to bring a second surge of precipitation to the region, but moisture return between the two waves is focused much further south across central Arkansas into the Tennessee Valley and south, so am not expecting significant amounts of precipitation/snow accumulation tonight into Sunday morning.

With the main focus being the slower moving first wave, have refined snow amounts a bit across the area. Snow amounts near the Iowa Missouri border generally look to be in the 1-3 range, but could see enhancements with the deformation band developing in the afternoon hours today. Farther south, am expecting closer to 4-5" in the Missouri River Valley/I-70 corridor, and amounts closer to 6-7 inches.

Snow is expected to come to an end Sunday morning across the region. Given those expectations, current headlines may run a bit long, but don't have high enough confidence at this point to shorten ending times.

Frigid conditions continue into Sunday night and Monday as arctic high across the Northern Plains drops south towards northern Texas by Monday morning. Flow turns more westerly Monday into Tuesday as high settles in the northern Gulf leading to a brief warm up before another shot of arctic air cools us down through the remainder of the week. This will keep temperatures well below normal and mainly below freezing through much of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conds are expect thru 07Z when lgt snow is expected to begin at the TAF sites with vis reduced to 2-3SM with MVFR cigs. Lgt snow with MVFR cigs and vis reduced to 1-3SM are expected thru 22Z...aft which IFR cigs with lgt snow reducing vis to 1-2SM are fcst. Winds thru the TAF pd will be out of the NE btn 7-12kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ028>031- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-032-033. KS...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ102.