textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog and drizzle possible again this evening / tonight and into Tuesday morning. Best chances as you work north of Missouri River.

- Fall-like temperatures through the week.

- Rain chances begin to return late week, best chances western Missouri into Kansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Predominantly overcast skies prevailed across the area thus far today, including pockets of lingering fog and drizzle to light rain. By early afternoon, visibilities have improved to greater than 6 miles in most locations and stratus has begun to go more cellular in nature. This is especially so in areas where higher level cloud cover has understandably been non-existent or clearing out. Of casual note, areas where mixing has been more robust, tending to be south of I-70, have noted the potential within CAM soundings for weak instability underneath the inversion to develop which could lead to some very weakly convective light rain / showers. This potential has most recently begun to be seen on KEAX radar along to just on the SGF side of the CWA border, including around and east of Clinton and south of Sedalia. Given that, do expect to see some additional activity south of I-70 where more robust cellular action is noted on visible satellite. Would not do much more than getting the ground wet or ticking off up to a couple or few hundredths of an inch of rain.

Deterministic and ensemble synoptic scale guidance have shown little notable changes with recent runs. There remains fair to good agreement on the general evolution of the synoptic pattern through late week. This includes a weakly closed to open mid-level wave drifting eastward across the Northern Plains today and Tuesday, gradually developing into a messy Rex Block-like pattern, and finally a closed low over and off the East Coast by late week into next weekend. And on its heels will be ridging working back into the central CONUS, but looks to struggle to make too much direct progress over the area given the East Coast blockages. All the while, a large surface high centered over the northern Great Lakes into southern Ontario.

What does that all mean for the immediate area? Temperature wise, it results in pretty persistent fall-like temperatures as NE to E surface/near-surface flow prevails throughout the week. This results in highs in the 60s/70s and lows generally in the upper 40s to 50s. Coolest lows tending to be mid-week when cloud cover should be least prevalent. Cloud cover and precipitation wise, yields lingering periods of stratus and drizzle to light rain chances through Tuesday with best chances over northern areas closer to the passing mid- level wave. Followed by a dry mid-week as mid-level height rises, the aforementioned ridging, slides into the central CONUS. Late week is where the most uncertainty resides as the degree and position of the blocking pattern over the East Coast will dictate how far east precipitation chances creep and how quickly the area may see warming temperatures. For now, not much change from previous forecast cycle with the prevailing consensus keeping the mid-level ridge axis just to the west of the area and embedded shortwaves rounding the ridge into Nebraska/Iowa. Within the gridded forecast, this yields 20 to 40 percent PoPs beginning to creep into NW/W Missouri and NE Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening and creeping eastward through Friday. Takeaway being chances increase as you work toward W/NW Missouri and into Kansas. Similar may occur into the weekend with deterministic guidance showing additional shortwaves within the flow, possibly attempting to flatten the ridge some. Understandably, aside from PoPs, this also results in the most uncertainty in temperatures with NBM spreads increasing to the 8 to 12 deg F range Saturday.

Regardless of all of the above, hope most are able to enjoy a stretch of cooler temperatures after the stretch of late summer/early fall heat.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Deteriorating conditions expected continuing into the overnight hours. MVFR CIGs to gradually fall to IFR after dark with MVFR VIS resulting from patchy BR/DZ. CIGs/VIS could approach LIFR before sunrise, but this threat looks isolated and mostly confined to northern Missouri. Conditions are expected to improve by 15Z, with P6SM VIS and MVFR CIGs returning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.