textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures expected through the entire forecast. High and low temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above normal next week with heat index values ranging from 100 to 105.

- Low chances for precipitation across northern Missouri early tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Broad upper-level ridging is spreading east into the middle of the country. In the lower-levels, southerly to southwesterly level winds will prevail and this combination will lead to temperatures climbing to well above normal values, which are now in the mid 80s. Highs on Sunday will climb into the middle to upper 90s for most locations, with nearly even chances for 100 degree temperatures in our far southern and southwestern zones. While it will be very hot, the combination of temperatures and humidity will keep most areas from seeing heat index values climbing near or exceeding 105. So don't anticipate the need for a heat advisory at this time. 500mb heights increase into Monday with the greatest heights just south of the area across Arkansas and into southern Missouri. This will support even warmer temperatures and a greater probability of more areas seeing 100+ degree temperatures, including the Kansas City area. Persistent southerly flow should lead to an uptick in moisture such that when combined with the well above normal temperatures, the area is more likely to see heat index values near or exceeding 105. This trend continues through late next week and anticipate some kind of heat headline needed for at least a portion of the forecast area. Right now this looks more probable in southeastern zones and potentially areas along and south of the Missouri River.

Switching to precipitation potential, chances look very low to non- existent for the next week. However, for tomorrow morning, a similar setup to this morning will play out. The main focus for precipitation will be along the nose of the low-level jet, generally north of the forecast area. However, there is still some mid-level ascent noted moving into northern/northwestern Missouri. And also some potential for an outflow boundary to move into the area, aiding any subtle broader-scale ascent. Have added PoPs generally around 20% for tomorrow morning to account for this lower confidence/lower probability potential. For the remainder of the forecast, there is limited potential overall. But on Wednesday night into Thursday, as the upper ridging weakens slightly, and a weak boundary moves into the area, that some slight chances move into northern Missouri. Right now, chances look less than 20% so more likely to remain dry than to see any precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The main issue will be winds. Winds will be steady from the south through the period, with occasional gusts of 20-25kts this afternoon, diminishing overnight, and increasing again late tomorrow morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.