textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain chances to increase (40-60%) throughout the morning and early afternoon, mainly west of US-65.

* Saturday afternoon, showers and storms may develop along a cold front. The best chances (30-60%) for showers and storms look to reside across the southeastern portions of the CWA. Severe storms are not expected at this time.

* Warmer and drier for the remainder of the holiday weekend before rain chances return next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Early overnight showers struggled to overcome low-level dry air, leaving the vast majority of us dry so far early this morning. Just a few hours ago, MRMS RALA imagery depicted collapsing elevated showers in our southern Missouri counties with increasing shower development across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma in an area of low-level frontogenic forcing. CAMs continue to show a resident layer of dry air near the surface, though a moistening trend is noted as we move through the morning hours. As such, CAMs keep most of the CWA dry until sunrise, around which point showers will begin to cross into the southern fringes of the area ahead of the surface warm front. WAA driven showers are expected to increase in areal coverage through the remainder of the morning and early afternoon hours, primarily west of the US-65 corridor. With the surface front anticipated to come to a near halt early Friday afternoon, the northern and eastward extent of showers will likely be limited. Instability is by and large weak across the region, which will reduce storm potential to the occasional rumble of thunder. Further north in eastern Nebraska, modest instability develops by the late afternoon hours, which may be sufficiently conducive for storm development. CAMs indicate that these storms would move off to the east during the evening and overnight hours but ultimately losing steam with time. Consequently, storm concerns remain low, but far northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri could see a brief shower or storm late this evening (20-40% chance). In terms of rainfall accumulations, ensemble probabilities of > 0.25" range from 50-80% south of I-70 and 30-40% north of I-70. East of US-65, the likelihood of receiving accumulations in excess of 0.25" is less than 10%. Generally speaking, higher rainfall accumulations are greatest further south where isentropic ascent is strongest and where PWATs approach/exceed 1.5".

Overnight Friday into Saturday morning, the weakening warm front is expected to finally pass through the area. Not long thereafter comes the cold front, however, which will keep low-end chances for showers in the forecast for much of the day on Saturday. The greatest probabilities for shower and storm develop reside in the southeastern portions of the CWA where some weak to modest instability may be able materialize during the afternoon. Organized convection is unlikely with poor shear profiles, thus keeping strong to severe storm concerns at bay. Moreover, storm potential will also be dependent on the location of the cold front, as it could very well be off to the southeast by the time adequate instability arrives. Needless to say, Saturday continues to look like a very conditional, sub-severe threat.

As high pressure begins to settle in on Sunday, the remainder of the holiday weekend is expected to be calm. This brief reprieve will allow for ample sunshine and warmer temperatures in the low/mid 80s area wide.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

An interesting synoptic scale pattern is in store for the extended forecast period. Early next week, upper-level ridging is expected to intensify over the Plains while a trough deepens along the West Coast and another low-pressure system slows over New England. Medium range guidance depicts the trough further west ejecting a series of shortwaves into the Southern Rockies, inducing lee cyclogenesis midweek. This lee cyclone, detached from upper-level flow reminiscent of omega blocking, could hover over the Southern Plains for several days mid/late week before degrading. It is expected that this unusual setup will lead to a wet and unsettled weather pattern for much of next week, though uncertainty is prolific this far out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to hold just a bit longer this morning as showers attempt to creep north. Shower coverage is anticipated to increase by mid-morning, dropping CIGs below IFR. The likelihood of showers declines considerably as we progress through the afternoon hours, though some lingering rain is possible. CIGs should improve to MVFR early this afternoon with VFR CIGs expected late afternoon. TSRA is possible across northwestern Missouri late this evening, but with low confidence in coverage and timing, a PROB30 was not included in the TAF for KSTJ at this time. In the last few hours of the TAF period, CIGs are expected to fall once again, leading to MVFR and IFR conditions.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.