textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A northern-stream system may bring a brief bout of light rain or snow to northeastern Missouri Friday night into Saturday morning (less than 20 percent chance). Little or no meaningful impacts are expected.

- A strong storm system will affect the region Sunday and Sunday night. Very windy conditions are expected Sunday afternoon and night. Showers and thunderstorms may occur Sunday morning (up to a 50 percent chance), with a marginal risk of gusty winds mainly east of highway 65. Wraparound snow may occur with the system Sunday afternoon and evening, but confidence is low on coverage, timing, and intensity. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts as details become clearer.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a potent shortwave trough translating from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, with a 70+ knot H5 jet streak extending all the way from the Pacific Ocean west of British Columbia all the way into South Carolina. At the surface, a 992 mb surface low is centered near the Twin Cities, with a very tight pressure gradient extending from the surface low all the way into the Ozarks. This has resulted in the continuation of very strong southwesterly surface winds - aided by a 70 knot low level jet that has developed over the region - with gusts as high as 45 mph. Winds will turn westerly and eventually northwesterly tonight into early Friday behind a passing cold front associated with surface low over MSP, with winds/gusts finally beginning to come down by around 2-4 AM, and gusts relaxing entirely by mid to late Friday morning. High temps for tomorrow should be a bit cooler compared to today behind the front with cold advection through at least noon Friday before transitioning to a warm advection regime by Friday evening. This warm advection may generate just enough forcing for ascent to help generate some light precipitation across far northern Missouri late Friday night into Saturday morning, with thermal profiles potentially supporting some light snow or flurries. However, higher PoPs should stay north of the Iowa border, and at this time no snow accumulations are anticipated. Relatively strong theta e advection commences on Saturday afternoon, with a warm front progged to lift south to north through the CWA, returning low level flow to southerly and increasing temperatures into the low to mid 70s for areas south of the Missouri River, and increasing dew points from the 20s to lower 30s Saturday morning to the 40s by Saturday afternoon.

By Saturday night, a potent mid/upper trough is progged to dig across the Rockies, entering the High Plains by Sunday morning, with an associated sub 1000 mb surface low developing over the south central Plains. Strong synoptic scale ascent out ahead of the upper trough and surface low should generate widespread precipitation across the region by Sunday morning. Models continue to differ with respect to how they handle the evolution of the system, with the GFS being much slower with the progression (compared to the ECMWF), allowing for thermal profiles to cool behind the deepening surface low and cold front while enough moisture remains in place to support several hours of wraparound snow. NBM guidance continues to trend more favorably for accumulating snowfall, with the most recent NBM run giving MCI roughly a 50% chance for snow to exceed 1", with Maryville and Kirksville at 50% and 70%, respectively. In addition to the potential snow, very strong surface winds associated with the strong pressure gradient created by the passing deepening surface low should yield sustained NW winds on the order of 30 mph with gusts as high as 45 to even 50 mph behind the low/front on Sunday afternoon. Thus, if there is a period in which we have both decent snowfall rates paired with NW winds gusting to 40+ mph, visibilities will tank. Confidence in just how this system will play out remains relatively low at this time, but it has the potential to be a high impact event, so it is recommended that folks pay attention to subsequent forecasts as details come into better focus.

Another potential issue with this system is the chance for showers and storms Sunday morning out ahead of the cold front, with modest to moderate instability (CAPE on the order of 500 to 1500 J/kg) and strong deep layer wind shear, with hail being the primary threat thanks to cold mid level temperatures. That said, the better severe potential should remain south and east of our CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Strong cold front is expected to move through the region Sunday morning as surface low deepens moving from southern Iowa into the western Great Lakes. Temperatures crash behind the front with 925 hpa temperatures falling 20-25 C over 18 hours. As colder air builds into the region and dendritic layer crashes towards the surface, sufficent saturation exists to lead to at least some snowfall across the region. GFS has come in a bit more aggressive with the TROWAL, while the ECMWF leading to a larger spread in possible snow accumulations. LREF ensembles have trended down on accumulations, but the very strong winds (40+ knots at 925 hpa and 45-50 knots at 850 hpa) in combination with strong cold air advection will lead to significant reductions in visibility while snow is falling. Strong winds look to continue past precipitation into Monday morning when wind chill values could fall below zero F, especially across northern Missouri. Once the flow turns westerly, temperatures quickly rebound and by mid-week temperatures are back well above normal Wednesday into next weekend as upper ridge across the west expands east.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 6:03 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026 VFR conditions through the period. Could see a bit of gusty winds between 14-18Z this morning as a cold front sweeps through the region. Wind gusts are expected to decrease this afternoon, becoming light out of the east Friday night into Saturday morning.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.