textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south southwesterly winds are expected today through Thursday.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday into Thursday night. Damaging wind will be the main threat.

- Several rounds of storms will be possible Thursday through Sunday which may lead to localized flooding.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Today, a upper level trough is pushing into the west coast causing upstream upper level ridging to build over the central Rockies. This is providing modest height rises over the local area. In addition, a surface front extends from the Upper Midwest back to the southwest into the western High Plains. Out ahead of the front, WAA is strengthening over the local area driving highs into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tonight into tomorrow, strong WAA will continue over the area ahead of the front as the upper level ridge moves into the western Plains. Continued height rises couple with the strong WAA will allow temperatures to further warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s. Tomorrow night the cold front will sag towards the area as a upper level shortwave moves through the Great Lakes region. A isolated shower/storm of two will be possible (20%) across north- central and northeastern Missouri. Wednesday, the upper level ridge axis will build over the local area however, WAA will not be as strong as Tuesday. Consequently, high temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the mid 70s to near 80...which is still about 10 degrees above normal for late April.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

By Thursday, the upper level trough that moved into the west coast Monday/Monday night will move into the northern and central Plains pushing a cold front into the area. A moist environment will be in place with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s with modest instability with MUCAPE values between 1500-2000J/Kg and 40-50kts of effective shear. This would support the potential for severe storms with model soundings supporting linear storms capable of damaging winds being the main threat. PWATs are around 1.2"-1.4" which would provide locally heavy rain however, the front is expected to remain progressive enough to limit the flooding potential. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue Friday into Saturday as the upper level flow becomes quasi-zonal across the region with several shortwaves moving through the area. These storms are not expected to be severe however. Sunday, a strong shortwave will move through the area bring additional storm chances. Instability will be limited keeping severe potential low however an additional round of heavy rain is possible which may produce flooding.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR conditions with gusty south winds through the period. Models are hinting at a stratus deck expanding north after 21Z Tuesday, but have not included mention in this forecast cycle.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.