textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions continue today with mostly cloudy skies.

- Warming trend expected into Saturday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible late on Friday and then again on Saturday. Severe weather is not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Broad Canadian high pressure is expected to build south today into the Northern Plains. Dry air emanating from the surface ridge will continue to build south across the region today eating away at early morning precipitation potential across the area. Frontogenetic forcing near 650 mb is leading to the development of snow aloft, but as snow falls towards the surface it melts and sublimates leading to little precipitation accumulation along and south of I-70. Frontogenetic forcing is expected to weaken this morning and subsidence from the building ridge into the area will bring precipitation to an end across the region this morning, and potentially allow for some scattering of cloud cover through the afternoon hours today. Despite the efforts of the filtered sunshine, temperatures will remain quite cool for this time of year with 850 hpa temperatures hovering just a degree or two above freezing.

With surface ridge building into the region tonight, winds will go light; however, mid and high clouds look to remain across the region through much of the night limiting radiative cooling and the potential for fog.

As the surface ridge builds east, expect flow to turn out of the southwest though temperatures only warm a few degrees on Thursday keeping temperatures about 5 degrees below seasonal norms. Warmer air continues to build into the region Thursday night into Friday as upper ridge across the west expands east.

A series of shortwaves dropping southeast in northwest flow aloft could lead to periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. The first of these disturbances is focused on Friday afternoon/evening, but limited instability with a significant lack of near surface moisture will limit storm coverage and severity.

A surface cold front looks to move through the region Saturday night into early Sunday morning creating another chance for showers and thunderstorms, though low level moisture and instability look to be in relatively short supply. Winds on the backside of the front look relatively strong with 35-40 knots in the 925-850 mb layer.

Upper level ridge strengthens across the western US this weekend and builds east next week leading to more substantial warming. Periodic short waves continue leading to scattered thunderstorm chances continuing into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light northwest winds today as surface high across Northern Plains builds towards the region. Winds will shift more out of the southwest this evening as surface high shifts east.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.