textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Heat advisory/ excessive heat warning in effect today along and south of highway 36.

* Low chances continue for morning showers and thunderstorms across the region, with best chances across northern Missouri.

* There is the potential for more organized thunderstorms late week that pose a damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Another day, more heat and humidity to contend with along with the potential of morning storms.

A shortwave across southern Nebraska is fueling clusters of storms across central into eastern Nebraska into northern KS. This activity is expected to shift east, approaching northwestern Missouri towards 10-11Z. This activity is building east towards the core of the low level jet which extends from the panhandle of Texas to northern Missouri. Forecast soundings continue to show a dearth of moisture below 600 mb, so if showers are able to push east, heat bursts would once again be possible. In addition, showers would have the potential to assist in surfacing the 30-40 knot low level jet. The showers are expected to weaken through the morning. Southerly flow will once again assist in allowing the atmosphere to rapidly warm with ample surface heating. Have continued the excessive heat warning across central Missouri and have issued a heat advisory roughly highway 36 and south with afternoon/evening heat indices expected to climb to 105-110 F. Left far northern Missouri out of the heat advisory as lingering cloud cover/ convective debris/outflow boundaries associated with convection to the north may make it a bit harder to warm to advisory levels.

Long standing trough across eastern Colorado into western KS is expected to remain in place much of the week. This trough is expected to lead isolated late day convection today, and more widespread activity on Wednesday as yet another shortwave pushes east across the Northern Plains. This could result in the potential for an MCS Wednesday night into Thursday morning, though guidance is very murky on this potential. There are still enough solutions suggesting this as a possibility to prompt SPC to outlook northern Missouri in a marginal risk for Thursday morning.

Temperature forecast in the extended depends heavily on how effective MCS would be on dragging stationary boundary in the vicinity of I-80 southward. Until then, the heat and humidity will continue with the potential of extending heat headlines in time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Spotty showers are possible this morning across northern Missouri, but these showers are expected to remain elevated with little/ no visibility reduction at the surface. Gusty southwest winds are expected to develop during the daylight hours, decreasing towards sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ012>017-020>025-028>033-037-038. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040- 043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102>105. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.