textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy and much cooler today, with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most locations.

- Isolated showers/storms possible throughout the daytime hours today.

- Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms expected late tonight into Thursday morning.

- Flood watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry Counties in Missouri through Thursday afternoon.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected for Friday and Saturday, with patchy frost possible early Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Current H5 analysis shows a deep, closed mid/upper low centered over southern Utah/northern Arizona with attendant troughing extending southward into the Gulf of California and southwesterly mid/upper flow downstream across the Plains and into Missouri. At the surface, the cold front is draped from NE Missouri to the southwest through Kansas City and into eastern Kansas. Stratiform rain continues across southern portions of the CWA this morning, with new convection beginning to develop across east central Kansas from Salina to Emporia, moving slowly to the east. With the diminished threat for additional heavy rainfall this morning, the flood watch has been canceled for almost the entire CWA, except for Linn County KS and Bates and Henry County MO (more on this later). The front should continue to slowly push southward through the day today, with low stratus remaining and much cooler temperatures expected (mid to upper 60s for most locations).

Isolated to scattered elevated showers/storms north of the front will be possible by late morning into early afternoon. The aforementioned western trough is projected to move eastward across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains by later today, finally ejecting across the central CONUS overnight tonight into Thursday morning. The associated surface cyclone should lift out of the TX/OK Panhandles and into eastern KS overnight tonight into early Thursday, which will draw the cold front back to the north as a warm front. All of this should help generate widespread showers (with some embedded thunderstorms) across the CWA late tonight into Thursday morning, and with PWATs projected to range from 1.8" to 2", it is possible that far southern portions of the CWA could pick up 1-2" or so of rain with this event, so the aforementioned flood watch for Linn, Bates, and Henry Counties has been extended out through Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday should be warmer as the warm front moves south to north through the CWA, with highs in the mid 70s for most locations, but as the surface low exits to the northeast, the trailing cold front should move through from west to east Thursday afternoon/evening. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the front, with sustained winds on the order of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 to 30 mph, as well as much cooler temperatures and lower dew points. Low temperatures Friday morning should be in the mid 40s across the region, with breezy conditions yielding wind chills in the mid to upper 30s. With strong cold air advection on Friday, afternoon highs should only reach the mid to upper 50s, with breezy northerly winds continuing through mid to late afternoon.

The pressure gradient should begin to subside by Friday evening as a 1036 mb surface high slides eastward out of the central High Plains and toward our CWA. By Friday night, the surface high should be centered directly overhead, yielding calm winds, clear skies, and low dew points. This will make for excellent radiational cooling conditions, and temperatures early Saturday morning should fall into the mid to upper 30s across the region (warmer of course across the KC urban head island). This should yield some patchy frost across the area, especially northern Missouri where temperatures should be the coldest. Saturday should be a beautiful mid October day, with highs in the low to mid 60s, mostly clear skies, and light winds. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the west by Sunday, with deep layer southwesterly flow moving in by late Sunday into Monday downstream of a trough over Baja California. This should bring in warmer temperatures and increased moisture, with highs back into the low to mid 70s across most of the CWA by next Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Variable but generally MVFR conditions expected at the terminals through the end of the forecast period. Light rain showers will continue to move through portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri for the next couple of hours before gradually dissipating before/around dawn. With a moist subcloud layer, BR seems likely before sunrise as well which may occasionally drop VIS to MVFR. CIGs are expected to fall to MVFR overnight as well with southern sites teetering around MVFR/IFR for much of the day. Heading into Wednesday evening, IFR CIGs look to become more prevalent. Otherwise, northerly/northeasterly winds.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060.