textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated non-severe storm is possible this evening across far eastern KS into far western Missouri.

- Increasing severe weather threat later in the day on Sunday into Sunday night. All modes of severe weather are possible.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected behind a strong cold front moving through the region mid-day Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Cold front associated with an occluded low pressure center across central Canada will continue to slowly push east this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, a weakly unstable atmosphere exists with increasing low level moisture. There is a fair amount of cloud cover across central and eastern KS, but still could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop in the vicinity of the cold front with 750-1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and weak short wave building east. CAMs suggest a few of these storms may approach eastern Kansas into far western Missouri this evening, though the trend has been to shift timing a bit later in the evening. Severe weather is not expected with this activity with relatively weak instability.

Sunday, a developing low pressure system in the central Rockies is expected to lead to increasing southerly winds. As the warm front noses into the region, increasing shear and instability is expected. 0-6 km bulk shear increases to 30-40 knots west of the warm front and surface based CAPE increases to 1500-2500 J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest there is a bit of a cap near 700 mb, but 25-35 knot low level jet developing Sunday evening across the plains may weaken the cap. Models also suggest a series of short waves moving across KS that could assist in the development of convection, but are largely focused after 06Z Monday. The left exit region of the upper level jet also noses into the region after 06-09Z Monday, potentially assisting in lift developing across the region. This all said. That there are multiple triggers but no clear indication on if/what will get convection going.

Strong cold front is expected to work through the region mid-day Monday, bringing an end to the potential for storms. Cooler and drier conditions are expected through much of the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions are likely through most of the overnight. But MVFR ceilings may build east into the area around sunrise tomorrow and linger for much of the morning hours. Probabilities are higher in KS for low MVFR so have added a prevailing group to IXD for that. Further east, have only scattered low MVFR and prevailing non fuel-alternate MVFR ceilings. As cloud bases gradually raise through the morning, winds will start to increase and have kept some mention of gusts to 25kts going. The most likely period for storms looks like late tomorrow afternoon and then through the overnight hours, mainly along and north of the MO River. With uncertainty still quite high, have only gone with a PROB30 group to account for this with shorter overall times at IXD and longer times further north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.