textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler conditions forecast today through the weekend. Hard freeze expected Saturday morning.

- Temperatures returning to, or slightly above, seasonal normals next week (highs in the mid 50s, lows near freezing).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A longwave trough is positioned over the eastern CONUS, with ridging present over the western CONUS. The local area is sandwiched between these two features with northerly winds and CAA bringing cooler temperatures to the forecast. High temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach 50F across northern MO as a few low-to-mid level clouds float across the area today. Surface high pressure builds into the Northern and Central Plains this afternoon/evening allowing winds to diminish and skies to clear. This will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 20s tonight, bringing the first freeze of the season for most areas across northern MO. High pressure and northerly winds remain present into the weekend with highs only climbing into the mid-to-upper 40s on Friday and Saturday. Saturday morning will be the coldest of the forecast period with lows dropping into the low 20s (some may even see temperatures in the teens), making this the first hard freeze (temperatures below 28F) for most of the CWA.

By Sunday, upper-level ridging is expected to slide east over the Central Plains, bringing height rises to the area. The surface high pressure will also shift to the east and southerly flow and WAA will return, bringing warmer temperatures back into the forecast. Sunday should see high temperatures climb back into the low 50s, with lows right around freezing. Each subsequent day is expected to warm an additional 3-4 degF as the ridge continues to build over the central CONUS.

Previous forecast cycles have noted a shortwave that is progged to move across the Central Plains on Sunday afternoon. Models have continued to shift the path of the shortwave and associated surface system further south. At this point, all precipitation from this system is expected to remain south of the CWA. The next chance (20-30%) for precipitation comes Wednesday into Thursday, but discrepancies between the models makes this a low confidence forecast at this range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Northerly winds are expected to prevail at all four terminals through the TAF period. A few gusts are likely through the afternoon hours. A deck of low clouds has been building over the last few hours across IA and northern MO. Current expectation is for clouds to remain scattered enough at the terminals to avoid prevailing MVFR CIGs, but it would not be surprising to see intermittent periods of MVFR conditions throughout the whole TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.