textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms, specifically Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.

* Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

An active weather week is in store for the Plains and Midwest with Kansas and Missouri being no exception. Deep-layer southwest flow and theta-e advection has allowed temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and low 80s as of early Monday afternoon. A tight surface pressure gradient has also led to breezy conditions with sustained wind speeds ranging from roughly 15-20 MPH with gusts up to 35-40 MPH.

There are two scenarios regarding tonight's activity (or lack thereof). The most likely (>90%) possibility is that no showers or storms are able to develop outside of a rogue elevated, non-severe shower/storm. Recent ACARS soundings from KMCI have continued to show a persistent capping inversion around 800mb, which would largely inhibit the development of strong/severe storms without a lifting mechanism in the vicinity. The second, much less likely possibility (<10%) is that an isolated storm could develop after encountering some forcing, or a storm is able to form further west where inhibition is more limited. With the amount of instability we have available, a storm that is able to overcome the barriers in place could easily become strong/severe. How long a storm would be able to fuel itself in such a heavily capped environment is another question which further reduces confidence in this occurring. Again, this remains a highly unlikely scenario but possible nonetheless.

Warm temperatures will stick around on Tuesday with potential for showers and storms beginning late in the afternoon. A low pressure system currently over the southern California coast is progged to lift northeastward later today. As it does so, a lead shortwave will eject out ahead toward the Rockies. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to ensue with the resultant low moving into north central Kansas by early Tuesday morning. A dryline extending south from the cyclone and into Oklahoma and Texas will be important for storm potential locally. CAMs/Hi-Res guidance indicate convective initiation beginning along this boundary in Oklahoma and Kansas. Storms that develop will initially be discrete/semi-discrete before growing upscale into messy clusters and/or quasi-linear segments. Following mean southwest flow, storms would track northeastward; as such, storms that initiate off of the dryline further south and west would be expected to enter our CWA sometime late Tuesday afternoon or early evening. Locally, we look to possess an environment conducive to strong/severe convection: good instability (CAMs narrowing in on a window of >2000 J/kg of CAPE early tomorrow evening) as well as decent deep-layer shear and SRH. However, what we lack is a clear lifting mechanism nearby, and this will limit our chances for discrete convection tomorrow. If the dryline moves further east than currently forecast, or if a discrete storm from northern OK/southeast KS is able to sustain itself long enough without growing upscale, we would be posed with a greater tornado and hail threat. With no clear route for ascent and indications of at least some degree of a cap, though, we expect wind to be the primary/most widespread hazard with non-discrete convection. CAMs have also picked up on convective initiation in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri late Wednesday evening as the LLJ ramps up; these storms would present a wind threat as well. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the forecast tomorrow, much of it dependent on the placement of the dry line as well as the surface low.

Severe weather potential exists on Wednesday, but the threat looks to be rather conditional, relying upon how the atmosphere is able to recover from the prior day's showers and storms. Model guidance keeps the CWA clouded in over the course of the day with some clearing in eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Overall, there is less instability to work with as well as more capping (at least per model depictions). Regardless, Thursday looks to be calmer, courtesy of mid/upper-level ridging. Strong southwesterly flow will continue to prevail, keeping us warm.

Finally, severe weather chances return again on Friday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft looks to run over a moist, unstable airmass provided by daytime theta-e advection as another surface cyclone with an attendant cold front approaches from the leeside of the Rockies. As the cold front nears, storms could develop along or near it. Guidance suggests moderate instability and shear could be available for storms to tap into, though details should become clearer as we continue through the week. Following the passage of the cold front, high temperatures on Saturday could be 20-25F lower. While we will have to bid adieu to 80 degree temperatures for now, the weekend looks to be dry once remnants of showers and storms move out early Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across the sites for much of the period. Initially, a low VFR/high MVFR stratus deck may clip the metro sites, especially KIXD, as that deck has blossomed in the wake of outflow from storms earlier this evening. Am not confident enough to include prevailing given soundings and strong low level flow, but will monitor. Otherwise, VFR conditions and gusty SW winds prevail across all sites through much of the remainder of the period. After 00z, convection expected to blossom and move up into the area. Given confidence in convection, have included a prevailing TSRA group with a PROB30 for higher intensity/low visibility potential. That activity may carry into the overnight/past the end of this current TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.