textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures continue this week.

- Precipitation chances (30-50%) return to the forecast Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The first day of Fall comes in with classic Fall weather. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the area with mostly cloudy skies and a few peeks of sun through the afternoon. The 500-hPa pattern has taken an interesting evolution over the past few hours. Mid-level troughing has dug into the West Coast while ridging from Texas to the central Rockies has shifted slightly east and ridging over the Great Lakes has remained fairly stagnant. This has created a ridge over ridge setup, however, there is a shortwave embedded between them with an associated weak jet maxima placed over the MO River Valley. At the surface, a broad surface high has been gradually shifting east across Ontario and Quebec, decreasing its influence across the lower MO River Valley. An inversion around 850-hPa has trapped a layer of moisture near the surface and resulted in the cloud cover that has been persistent over the past couple of days. Model soundings depict weak instability beneath the inversion, which has provided enough support to induce some pockets of drizzle/light rain. This will continue through the afternoon, gradually shifting east with time.

The ridge over the Great Lakes and the shortwave will move to the east over the next day or so allowing the southern ridge to take hold over the area. With the shortwave out of the area, drier mid-level air will advect into the area and skies will be able to clear through the day tomorrow. Temperatures will remain in the low-to-mid 70s, with dew points in the upper 50s, creating a pleasant Fall day. This pattern remains through the end of the week.

Several shortwaves are expected to move through the flow inducing showers, however, precipitation should remain to the north and west of the area through Thursday. On Friday, a more vigorous shortwave is progged to move through the flow and shift the ridge to the east, allowing showers to move into the area from northwest to southeast through the day on Friday. Several more impulses bring shower chances (30-50%) to the area through the weekend. Instability looks to be minimal with these systems, so even as much as thunder may be hard to come by.

Long range deterministic and ensemble models are in fairly good agreement for mid-level ridging to build back into the Central CONUS by early next week. This would likely allow temperatures to climb back into the low-to-mid 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

An area of MVFR ceilings is moving westward across northern MO and will very likely (>80%) affect all terminals through the first quarter of the forecast. There is also a lower potential for IFR ceilings (around 50%) for the first few hours. The leading edge of this cloud deck is variable with erosion and regeneration ongoing, so timing precisely is uncertain. But the trend is likely to be to MVFR for a period of time, then improving tomorrow morning to VFR, and then remain VFR for the remainder of the forecast. Winds will be light from the east, generally 10kts and less.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.