textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Next round of snowfall moves in Monday morning and through the day. - Area of 2"-4"+ possible, mainly N of I-70 - Amounts gradually taper off southward from I-70 - All snow + light winds

* Cold temperatures continue - Mon lows: 10s to teens - Mon AM wind chills: single digits to low teens - Mon highs: 20s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Largely a quiet day across the area once the gusty NW winds died down this morning. There was a couple/few hours of flurries for areas around the KC metro and northward along the Missouri river as an area of stratus dropped into the area. Temperatures within that cloud layer were pretty squarely in the DGZ, allowing for some dendrite production that was able to reach the ground. Nothing substantial with high end being some very light accumulations in parts of E/NE Kansas. Otherwise, by early this afternoon, large surface high has developed and moved into the Plains, dominating from the Canadian border and down toward the Gulf Coast. The system responsible for the unpleasant weather Saturday now squarely over the Great Lakes and into the New England areas. With the core of the surface high in place, cold temperatures will continue, but overnight lows will fortunately be limited with increasing cloud cover helping insulate the area. Regardless, still cold with overnight lows in the 10s to teens expected. Light winds mitigate any real wind chill issues, only being a couple/few degrees colder than air temps.

The next weather maker moves in overnight tonight and will bring with it a fairly widespread area of snowfall. At this point in time, the mid-upper level wave and PV anomaly are dropping down towards the 4-Corners region and will begin to swing into the Plains tonight. Model guidance remain unanimous in lack of any surface reflection as this wave exits the Rockies, hampered by the expansive surface/low level high pressure mentioned above. This leaves forcing and moisture advection around and above 800mb with at least initial snowfall areas ahead of the parent wave/PV anomaly. Hi-res guidance too remains in good consensus of greatest snowfall areas predominantly N of I-70 and towards the US-36 corridor and up to/through the Iowa border. Much of this initial forcing will be driving by ~700mb FGEN forcing, depicted well on various plan and cross sections. Unlike some previous runs, there is little indication of CSI potential, fortunately limiting risk for intense and narrow banding. As the event progresses, deeper lift associated with the wave/PV anomaly will approach the area and continue (even expand areally to some degree) snowfall through the afternoon and into the evening hours. There is some jet level support noted, potentially even a weakly paired jet structure, but is difficult to define how that may add to the situation, and will come back to this in a minute.Temperature profiles continue to suggest much of area of greatest lift will either be within the DGZ or within a couple degrees, lending to efficient dendrite (higher SLR) production. Though, some turbulence in that region (stronger winds) likely yields at least some fracturing, mitigating higher/highest end SLR scenarios. So... maybe 13-16:1 ratios prevail (which were used with this package) vs something closer to 18-20:1. Either way, a generally fluffy and easily movable snowfall. Fortunately light surface winds limit issues in that regard as well.

Timing wise, recent hi-res runs have suggested a bit slower onset for accumulating snowfall, more so after 13z-14z for KC Metro. That tends to make sense given the ample dry air and top down saturating that will have to occur prior. As forcing increases through the morning, light to moderate snowfall should easily overspread far eastern KS and western MO through the remainder of the morning and reaching more easter areas by the early afternoon. Snowfall is likely to be ongoing for at least the beginning of the evening commute in the KC area, and especially so eastward across the northern third to half of Missouri.

As for total amounts, not much change in expectation from previous forecast package or two. A relatively broad area of 2"-4"+ remains forecast from around I-70 northward through the Iowa border. Greatest amounts remain largely depicted as you approach the US-36 corridor as well where widespread 3"-4"+ may prevail. Given limited moisture (and moisture advection) probabilities remain quite tight as well, with probabilities of 6" or greater <15%-20% on the most recent Probabilistic Precipitation Portal output (which includes this forecast package output). Will note though, the 18z HRRR run has interestingly depicted a "double banded" look with a secondary area of higher snowfall right down I-70. Difficult to discern exactly what it is latching onto here, aside from jet streak support or the weakly paired jet streaks noted above. But, something to monitor given what has been advertised of late and current headline locations. About headlines... have expanded advisory eastward through the CWA, gradually angling ENE with the pivoting wave as well as adding a row of counties on the southern end to account for some uncertainty and the first accumulating snowfall in some cases. Timing is also stepped across the area from west to east, as well as ending. Impacts, by and large, should not be substantial with this snowfall given the light winds, light and movable nature (less melting/ice formation concern), and falling over a number of hours vs very intense bands. Expect moderate visibility reductions, especially snow kicked up from vehicles, and slick conditions where snow does accumulate/stay on roadways. Give some extra time while traveling, especially evening commutes around the area.

Quick peek into the week... chilly conditions generally linger with lack of any substantial mid-level ridging and southerly surface flow. A little moderation in temps, but not much more than the mid to upper 30s or low 40s over southern areas and areas with little or no snow. Snowpack areas will struggle to do much more than freezing. Mid-week, cold front anticipated to drop through the area, plunging temperatures colder at least briefly. Current depictions are a mostly dry frontal passage, but with a notable Arctic air mass trailing. Current forecast lows Thursday morning include single digits below zero over northern Missouri to 10s above zero toward KC metro and south and highs from the 10s to 20s. Fortunately short lived as southerly winds return to end the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR conditions currently will deteriorate Monday morning as snow moves into the area. Snow looks more likely to spread east into the STJ terminal then build southward with time tomorrow morning. Expect IFR conditions with both visibility and ceiling restrictions. Winds will be light through the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CST Monday for MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025-031>033-038-039. KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ025-057-102>105.