textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few snow flurries are possible this morning across parts of northwestern MO and northeastern KS. No accumulation is expected.

- A bit cooler today and Wednesday, but warm air returns for later in the week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into far northwestern MO as of 08Z Tuesday. Models show some saturation increasing and deepening this morning to potentially a 5000 ft thick cloud deck. But ascent through this saturated layer is weak at best. Given the weak ascent and relatively shallow saturated layer, it seems that at best we get a few flurries across northwestern MO and northeastern KS this morning. Any chances decrease quickly with the passage of the shortwave and resulting shift to stronger descent. Temperatures look to be 5-10 degrees cooler today compared to Monday, with light northerly flow ushering in cooler air behind a weak cold front. That cooler air lingers over the region Wednesday as broad upper troughing and cyclonic flow prevail.

A warming trend commences late in the week as the upper-level high portion of the Rex block over the western US shifts eastward. This ridging builds east through the later half of the week and as a result we should see highs climb from the 30s and lower 40s on Wednesday, to the middle 40s and middle 50s on Thursday - Saturday. Our southwestern zones may push for 60 degree temperatures Friday and Saturday as well. In fact, the southwestern half of the forecast area, from roughly Sedalia to St. Joseph, has at least 10% to as much as 50% chance for seeing 60 degree highs on Friday with a 25- 55% chance on Saturday. A shortwave trough may knock temperatures down a few degrees on Sunday, but the ridge builds back Monday with similar probabilities for 60 degree highs to Saturday. Late in the forecast, our next chance for precipitation arrives as strong moisture transport northward into the area commences ahead of the next shortwave trough.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Watching an MVFR cloud deck move into northwest Missouri this afternoon. Current trends suggest this will miss STJ and the KC Metro terminals, but may see scattered deck below 3kft for a few hours today. Winds remain generally out of the north.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.