textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Shower and storm chances return Thursday afternoon, continuing through the weekend and into at least early next week.

* Strong to severe storms are possible late Friday.

* Warmer and humid conditions return by the end of the week, continuing through the 7-day forecast. * Heat index values into the 90s, including mid-upper 90s, possible at times next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

It is a pleasant day across the region with mostly sunny sky cover, though the main feature for today is the lower humidity. Temps have warmed into the upper 70s to low 80s, though sfc dewpoints are mainly in the 50s. We'll likely hit the low 80s region-wide this afternoon. For this evening and into the overnight, dry weather continues as upper ridging overhead and sfc high pressure situated across the Ohio Valley.

The overall pattern begins to switch tomorrow, which will lead us into a prolonged stretch of more active weather over the forecast time range. Beginning tomorrow, the upper ridge will shift off to the southeast, with a mid-level high remaining over the southeast US that will help funnel a stronger fetch of moisture into the central Plains. This begins on Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures, but noticeably more humid air with sfc dewpoints climbing into the 60s. The morning hours are expected to be dry, but a compact mid- level shortwave pivoting across the region will support showers and storms developing tomorrow afternoon. We'll lack any low level trigger mechanism, but broad WAA and the humid airmass will be enough to destabilize by the afternoon, leading at least isolated to scattered coverage after 18z The 12z HREF mean ensemble for SBCAPE is around 1000-1500 J/kg for the afternoon, though deep layer shear will be marginal, which will help keep storms unorganized. The greatest chances for precip activity tomorrow will be across our W/NW in closer proximity to the shortwave. With overall modest flow through the column, expect storm motions to be somewhat slow.

Additional clusters of showers and storms continue mainly north of I- 70 Thursday night and into Friday morning in response to a LLJ/WAA. Deep layer shear could be slightly stronger due to the jet that could result in a bit more organized convection overnight.

Early morning convection will gradually move east and weaken as the LLJ weakens. We'll likely see a lull before more destabilization occurs and steepen low level lapse rates in a warm and humid airmass. Strong instability is expected, along with slightly more favorable shear values to support strong to potentially severe storms later in the day on Friday. As such, SPC includes our area in the D3 Convective Outlook with a Marginal Risk, and the Slight Risk just to our northwest.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 318 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Upper-level ridging will amplify over the eastern half of the CONUS over the weekend in response to a longwave trough moving across the Pacific Northwest. However, a weak mid-level cutoff low will eject out of Texas and support additional shower and storm chances through the weekend. The greater chances will be on Sunday as the mid-level low opens into a shortwave across the Plains during the day. Daily high temps in the 80s, combined with sfc dewpoints creeping into the 70s, will support afternoon destabilization greater than 1500-2000 J/kg. However, overall shear parameters are expected to remain weak, leading to low confidence in any severe storms over the weekend. Numerous to widespread showers and storms are likely for Sunday and Sunday night as the moisture transport axis is strengthened by a weak LLJ/WAA pattern. Additional precip chances linger into Monday.

The forecast turns drier after Monday as broad upper ridging keeps any upper momentum away from the region. This will support increasing temperatures for next week, potentially reaching 90F. The NBM was above the 75th percentile of models, so trimmed back max temps slightly to be more within the 50th percentile. Dewpoints in the 70s combined with these forecast temps will yield heat indices in the upper 90s and approaching triple digits by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours and likely through most of tomorrow. Diurnal CU will dissipate soon after 00Z this evening leaving high clouds moving over the area. Diurnal CU develop again late tomorrow morning and it looks like they'll eventually lead to a broken lower VFR deck by the afternoon. Have also added some thunderstorm mention tomorrow afternoon with various hi-res models showing some potential for that to occur. Winds will back to the southeast overnight and then veer to the south late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. Winds may gust 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.