textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Rain chances return Friday. - 15-25% chance for North KC Metro - 25-40% chance for South KC Metro - 45-60% chance for far southern and eastern portions of the CWA

* Friday PM storms in the southern and eastern portions of the CWA could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being hail.

* Warming trend continues through Saturday with widespread 75+ degree temperatures and a chance (~60%) of reaching 80F.

* Additional rain potential (70%) late Saturday PM/early Sunday AM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Surface high pressure has led to quiet conditions across the region today. Many areas, particularly along the MO/KS border, are on track to see high temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s later this afternoon. Wind gusts around 25 kts have been noted throughout the day as well. Several model soundings depict a well-mixed boundary layer persisting through mid-evening tonight which will allow for continued downward momentum transfer over the next several hours.

Later tonight, a shortwave will ripple through portions of the Plains. For most, this will result in increasing cloud cover that lasts for much of the day on Friday. North and along US-36, a brief pocket of light rain could be possible (15-20%) Friday morning as a surface front stalls along this corridor. This boundary will later move south as a cold front, bringing rain chances to the Kansas City metro by the early afternoon hours on Friday. Whether the metro is able to reap the benefits of rain, however, is uncertain. Although there is consensus on mid-level moisture, the same cannot be said regarding the lower levels, thus raising questions about the quality of the moisture column available tomorrow afternoon. Theta-E advection struggles to spread northward behind surface high pressure to the south, further suggesting that a replenishment of moisture may not be in the cards. Given these concerns, PoPs have been limited to 15-25% in the north metro and 25-40% in the south metro. Up to about 0.1" of rain is possible, though this amount could be higher if instability and moisture is able to surge further northward.

Shifting focus to our southern and eastern periphery of counties, greater rain and storm potential exists. In this vicinity lies an area of greater frontogenetic forcing, moisture availability, CAPE, and shear. Even so, convection that does occur would likely be elevated due to low-level stability. Steeper lapse rates aloft could be conducive for hail development in the strongest of storms. Rainfall totals for this area are expected to be roughly 0.5", with locally higher amounts possible with any isolated convective downpours. Rain and storms should conclude by early/mid Friday evening.

Surface high pressure builds back in rapidly in the wake of the afternoon/evening cold frontal passage, reducing cloud cover and shifting flow back out of the west/southwest, allowing temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s. There is also a notable chance (60%) of reaching 80F, especially along the MO/KS border. Ultimately, much of the day on Saturday will be warm and pleasant.

The warming trend will then take a brief pause as another, stronger cold front is expected to move through the CWA Saturday evening/early Sunday morning. This front will provide another opportunity for rain, primarily after dark, with the greatest chances (>70%) occurring in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. Within this corridor, between 0.25" and 0.5" of rain is possible with only a 10% chance of exceeding half an inch. Further north and south, notable rain chances (>40%) also exist, though confidence is more limited in these regions. Some rumbles of thunder are possible with these showers as they move through, but instability is quite poor with no clear destabilization mechanism heading into the overnight hours. Thus, no severe hazards are currently expected. Showers should clear out early Sunday morning with comparatively cooler temperatures.

Interpretation of 500-mb cluster analysis charts increases confidence in a calmer, warmer pattern beyond the weekend. Looking toward the latter half of next week, while more variation is evident in the clusters, ridging is expected to prevail, whether we continue to sit downwind of the ridge or fall beneath the ridge axis.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the forecast period. Currently seeing some cirrus building in at terminals, with some lingering diurnal cu present at downtown terminals. Seeing some lingering gusts around the area, so have kept gusts persisting at all terminals until sunset when mixing ceases. While notable speed shear is expected in the low-levels at terminals around 9-12z, not seeing a strong signal for significant directional shear, so have left out mentions for LLWS. Expecting clouds ceilings to build in tomorrow at 12z, and for winds to shift out of the north/northwest at terminals near the end of the forecast period. Greater confidence in the potential for SHRA/TSRA lies further south and east of terminals, so have left out mentions of weather.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.