textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably warm temperatures and humidity levels along with dry weather are expected today and Monday.

- A warmup is forecast to begin Tuesday and continue through the end of the week.

- Dry conditions are expected the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today: An upper vort max pushes southwest along the periphery of a building high pressure across the Midwest this afternoon, providing a source of lift for some fair weather cumulus clouds amidst an otherwise subsident pattern. With this northeast flow, slightly cooler and drier air has moved into the area, with a pleasant day unfolding. Highs will reach into the upper 80s this afternoon, with lows tonight in the mid- to upper 60s.

Temperatures: Dry and seasonable weather continues Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the mid- to upper 60s as ridging continues to push east across the central CONUS. NBM temperature spreads begin increasing after Tuesday, especially between the 50th and 75th percentiles. Warming will be gradual earlier in the week and ramp up late week into the weekend, with a return to southerly low-level flow WednNE Kansas/NW Missouri National Weather Service Kansas Ciesday bringing highs back into the mid-90s by Thursday. Southerly flow will also mean some additional moisture will return to the area, with dew points starting to increase into the weekend as well. Dew point temperature spreads are highest on Wednesday this week with some questions about northward extent of moisture return linger, but areas along and south of the Missouri River will start to see heat indices near or above 100 degrees again on Thursday and into the weekend.

Precip Chances: Overall precip chances are low (<10%) this week with ridging centered over the Central Plains suppressing widespread convection. Low pressure at 250mb will become cut off from broader troughing over the East Coast by midweek, getting stuck over Texas and Oklahoma in a quasi-rex block pattern amidst what would otherwise be a textbook Omega Block formation. This low will bring precip chances to portions of the South this week, but overall models trends continue to suggest a maximum PoP for the week of 10% along the southern CWA line on Wednesday and Thursday. The upper low loses its steam and fizzles out after that, just in time for the ridge to begin breaking down as another trough pushes east into the Midwest into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR through the TAF period at all TAF sites besides KSTJ, which may see another period of MVFR fog on Monday morning. Light 5-10kt east-northeasterly winds through the period, with some afternoon fair weather cumulus streets this afternoon before skies clear again tonight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.