textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, but still above normal, temperatures likely to persist over the course of the week and into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances return late in the week though uncertainty in amounts has increased.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A handful of maximum temperature records were broken today. As of 3PM, KMCI has warmed to 76F, eclipsing Kansas City's previous record of 72F set back in 1943. KSTJ currently sits at 75F, easily surpassing the earlier record of 64F from 1932. Although records were not broken everywhere, all locations in the CWA were able to enjoy temperatures about 20 degrees above normal. Due to temperatures warming slightly quicker than anticipated, breezy conditions induced by greater mixing have been observed across the area with several sites reporting gusts around 25 mph. Winds should decrease around sunset this evening.

Temperatures are expected to remain above average through the end of the week and into the weekend, but not quite as warm as today. Come tonight, a mid/upper-level trough is set to move into the Upper Midwest region. A surface cold front currently draped across southern South Dakota will be dragged southeast into the CWA in the early morning as the upper trough progresses. The front's gradual move through the CWA will begin around midnight Tuesday before passing through the remainder of the area by 6AM. Behind this front, winds will pick up out of the north with gust potential as great as 25-30 mph. The stronger winds and lower dewpoints associated with the cooler, drier airmass moving in overnight may result in the return of elevated fire weather concerns Tuesday afternoon. Zonal flow aloft and a lack of moisture will keep precipitation chances well south of the CWA tomorrow into Wednesday. Through Friday, high temperatures are expected to sit mostly in the 50s with slightly cooler temperatures further north and slightly warmer temperatures in the far south.

The next chance of precipitation could arrive Thursday as an 850-mb low shifts east off of the Rockies. Clouds look likely to build in over the early morning hours, but poor moisture depth quality looks to be a limiting factor in terms of precipitation production. PoPs remain low for this reason (20-30%). Better precipitation chances begin Friday and last into Saturday as an upper-level trough deepens off to our southwest. This system looks to be drawing in an ample amount of moisture, but latest guidance has not done much to reduce uncertainty regarding its evolution. Currently, models have been keeping the track of the upper-level low further south, severely hindering accumulations across the CWA. NBM precipitation accumulations also reinforce the lack of certainty, with a difference of about 1.5" between the 25th and 75th percentile 24- hour precipitation accumulation values.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Winds shift dramatically overnight along with some gusty conditions at times, but otherwise VFR TAFs to prevail across all sites. Current southerly winds around 10kts will quickly give way to winds shifting out of the north overnight. With the frontal passage and existing pressure gradient, sustained winds to largely remain around 10kts through the overnight, including the potential for some lower 20s kt gusts pre-dawn. Strongest wind gust potential will be immediately post frontal and in the few hours (morning) after, with the potential for some mid-20s kts gusts. Sustained winds too will be at their strongest pre- dawn and through the morning hours, with sustained northerly winds to around 15 kts. Sustained and gusts gradually ease through the afternoon and more substantially by and after 00z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.