textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and breezier conditions expected today.

- A few isolated storms are possible tonight. One of two of these storms may become strong capable of producing large hail or damaging winds.

- More widespread storms are expected Monday afternoon into Monday night, some of which could be severe producing mainly large hail and damaging wind.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface ridge has retreated to southeastern Missouri leading to increasing southerly winds. This has kept temperatures overnight 5- 10 degrees over last night's temperatures. Temperatures are expected to rapidly warm this morning in relatively dry atmosphere. Surface dew points are currently in the 30s, but will gradually climb today as moisture gradually increases. With that said, 50 degree dew points are still in central into eastern Texas as of 08Z this morning, so will take much of the day to get ample moisture north. Have cut any mention of precipitation to late this afternoon at the earliest, but could be delayed later in the evening as 30-45 knot low level jet centered over Oklahoma assists in drawing moisture north. With that said, true Gulf moisture doesn't open up till late today, so deeper moisture really doesn't arrive this far north till later in the day on Monday. Cold front across southeast SD into northwest Iowa this morning is expected to work south throughout the day, and may be the focus for isolated shower and thunderstorm development as low level moisture arrives. While moisture is limited, shear is plentiful with strong flow above 650 mb. As a result, could see a strong storm or two capable of producing large hail or gusty winds aided by evaporative cooling with the dry air in the near surface layer. Could see additional showers develop throughout the night as weak embedded shortwave drops southeast, though this wave looks ill timed mainly after 06Z Monday.

Mid level flow reorients to a more zonal pattern on Monday as additional short waves train across the region. Deeper moisture arrives later in the day as a stronger cold front pushes south across the area. Upper level jet also becomes increasingly favorable as left exit region of the upper level jet lifts into the area. With ample warming, could see instability grow towards 2000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear looks to remain moderately strong with 30-40 knots of bulk shear. With more plentiful moisture, expect this to be a more widespread event in the afternoon and overnight hours on Monday.

Cooler conditions are expected midweek as northerly flow drops near surface temperatures nearly 10C. Additional shortwaves continue to track across the area Tuesday into Wednesday leading to additional showers and non-severe thunderstorms. As the upper trough passes over the region on Wednesday, a warmer pattern begins to set up for the remainder of the week. Models still suggest the potential for additional mid level waves passing through the region, though there is little consistency amongst solutions at this point. Thus, the NBM has slight chance-chace pops sprinkled through the extended forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Tracking a cold front that will drop southward through the afternoon with increasing cloud cover. Ceilings will remain VFR through the 18z TAF period. Gusty winds expected through this afternoon that should diminish during the overnight hours into Monday morning. Scattered shower/storm activity is expected later this evening but confidence in impacts at the KC Metro and STJ terminals is low. Therefore, no precipitation mentions will be placed into those TAFs at this time.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.