textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected today and tomorrow afternoon, with portions of the region under a Red Flag Warning.

- Cooler temperatures arrive tomorrow evening behind a cold front, with near to below normal temperatures through the weekend and into Monday.

- Low end chances (20% to 30%) for some light snow overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. Little to no accumulation expected at this time.

- Warmer temperatures are likely to return by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

H5 analysis shows a 525 dam closed low spinning over the Twin Cities region with 60+ knot H5 west southwesterly flow stretching all the way from the Desert Southwest, through Kansas and Missouri, and into the eastern US. Meanwhile, an occluded 988 mb surface low is centered over central Minnesota, and is slowly filling. Enhanced surface winds out of the WSW continues this afternoon across far northern MO where the pressure gradient remains tighter closer to the Minnesota surface low. These winds paired temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with relative humidity in the teens to lower 20 percent range has yielded critical fire weather conditions this afternoon across northern Missouri, with a Red Flag Warning in effect through 7 pm. Meanwhile, elevated fire weather conditions remains outside of the Red Flag Warning, and numerous grass/wildland fires have been detected via satellite imagery this afternoon. Winds should become light CWA wide by later this evening, but temperatures remain quite warm (lows in the low to mid 40s for most locations).

A shortwave trough comes across the Rockies later this evening, undergoing lee cyclogenesis and taking on a negative tilt as it approaches the region tomorrow, with an accompanying 996 mb surface low sliding over Manhattan KS by 6 AM tomorrow. This low should enter into far NW Missouri by late morning/early afternoon, pushing through a dryline/Pacific cold front from west to east. RH should plunge behind this boundary, dropping into the teens to twenties once more, and with SW winds increasing with gusts up to 30 mph, this will once again yield elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the region. Accordingly, a Red Flag Warning has been issued from noon to 8 PM tomorrow from Linn County, KS to the northeast into Adair County, MO (as of now, all KC metro counties except for Cass remains out of the RFW). A secondary cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast by late afternoon into the evening hours, bringing in much colder temperatures behind it, with overnight lows returning to the twenties Thursday night into Friday morning and Friday afternoon highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

By Friday night into early Saturday, yet another shortwave trough/open wave comes across the South Central Plains and into the central CONUS. Previous forecast packages had higher PoPs (up to 50% or so) along with snow totals up to around an inch or so, largely driven by the Canadian model. Snow chances and totals have trended downward significantly on this forecast package, with only around a 20 to 30% chance for some light snow late Friday night into early Saturday morning and little to no accumulation. The most recent NBM run gives MCI a 38% probability for snow to meet or exceed 0.1", and only a 20% probability for snow to meet or exceed 0.5". Even if a little bit of snow does manage to accumulate, surface temperatures should return to above freezing by late Saturday morning and would quickly melt any snow. Cold temperatures should persist through the weekend and into Monday as our CWA will remain on the western edge of mid/upper troughing beneath north northwesterly flow, with high surface pressure building in from the north by Sunday and into Monday. Warmer temperatures should arrive by Tuesday as mid/upper ridging begins building in from the west.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the TAF period. Overnight winds will be light out of the east and southeast with scattered high clouds. A dry line is expected to move across the area late Thursday morning, allowing for clear skies at all four terminals into late afternoon. Behind the dry line, a surface low tracking through northwest Missouri will cause winds to shift out of the west by Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds are expected to be between 10-15 kts in the morning and pick up to 15-20 kts come the afternoon hours with gusts up to 25-30 kts anticipated. Wind gusts should begin to relax near the very end of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for MOZ017-024- 025-031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ005>008- 015>017. KS...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CST Thursday for KSZ060.