textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will persist through the end of the upcoming week.

- Very warm temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday, with record highs in jeopardy.

- Forecast uncertainty increases markedly Friday and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Very little change to forecast thinking for the next several days, as broad, high-amplitude ridging develops across the CONUS and brings the region a stout warm-up for the upcoming week. The coolest day through the Christmas holiday will be today, and we will still be about 6-12 degrees above seasonal averages. Bias- corrected guidance has been struggling in recent days with the mixing out of the boundary layer during the afternoon, with forecast highs too low, forecast dew points too high, and forecast winds too weak. Incorporated some raw guidance into today's forecast based on verification the past several days, which resulted in bumping temperatures up a few degrees and relative humidity down to 30 percent or lower during the afternoon. Winds will be modest today (probably 10 to 15 mph this afternoon, with occasional gusts to 20 mph or so), so fire- weather concerns are merely elevated versus alarming. Nevertheless, any fires may spread somewhat rapidly today given the forecast conditions.

With steady south winds developing this afternoon and continuing with muted nocturnal weakening at best tonight, dew points will be on the rise...and so will temperatures. Tonight's lows will be several degrees warmer than those seen this morning, and Monday's highs will follow suit, with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. It only goes up from there for Tuesday through Thursday, with upper 60s to lower 70s expected on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. This puts records on both days in jeopardy, especially Christmas Day. With such warm temperatures, we will need to watch for days in which steadier southwest winds develop, as these could be more-elevated fire-weather days for the region. At this point, Thursday looks like the biggest concern.

Model trends the past 24 hours have taken an interesting turn for the perturbations ejecting from a deep trough near the Pacific Coast late this week into early the following week. Most deterministic solutions have trended south with the ejection of a vorticity maximum from California into the northern Plains Thursday and Thursday night. This dampens the ridge strength much more strongly by Thursday night, and actually lowers confidence somewhat in 70s being attained in the KC area Thursday afternoon. Perhaps the more important implication is that forecast highs on Friday and Saturday have dropped substantially. Previous forecasts for highs in the 60s have dropped into the 50s. Of course, this would still be around 10-20 degrees above average for this time of year, but it is a more noticeable drop from previous forecasts.

Perhaps even more interestingly, it provides a lot more uncertainty into how subsequent perturbations eject eastward from the western U.S. trough, with deterministic solutions remaining highly variable overall. However, a discernible trend amidst the model noise is development of a potent storm system in the central/eastern U.S. by the following weekend or early the following week (as depicted by 00z GFS/CMC) and another around the new year (as hinted at by the GFS and several AI models). Ensemble consensus is poor by this time frame, owing to large variations in system timing/evolution, but the general gist of this is that the pattern looks to be considerably more active the week of New Year's Day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

A few passing clouds expected this afternoon but bases will be VFR. Surface winds will gradually veer through the evening hours. Wind gusts above 20kts possible Monday afternoon, but mainly after 18z, thus not in the current TAFs.

CLIMATE

Issued at 220 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24: KMCI: 72/2021 KSTJ: 69/2021

December 25: KMCI: 67/1922 KSTJ: 65/2019

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 25: KMCI: 53/1936 KSTJ: 51/1936

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.