textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected across central Missouri Tuesday afternoon with southwesterly winds gusting to 30-40 mph and RH values around 30%.

- Above normal temperatures return Tuesday through the end of the week.

- Next precipitation chance (50-60%) arrive Wednesday evening into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Analysis shows a 500-hPa ridge blanketing the western CONUS with a trough situated over the eastern CONUS. At the surface a 1035-mb high is centered over the area while a 972-mb bomb cyclone is working its way up the East Coast dumping 20-30+" of snow throughout New England. With high pressure overhead locally winds are calm beneath clear skies, sans a few high- level cirrus that are expected to float over this afternoon/evening. Temperatures are currently pushing 30F across the area and are expected to climb into the low-to-mid 30s this afternoon.

The high pressure will shift off to the southeast this evening, turning winds southerly and inciting WAA across the region. A Clipper system is expected to move across the Northern Plains and southern Canada tonight, which will generate a tightening pressure gradient across the area and will create strong southwesterly flow tomorrow. While this will bring warmer temperatures back to the area with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s, it will also create elevated fire weather conditions, particularly across the southern portion of the area with winds gusting to 30-40 mph in conjunction with afternoon RH values around 30%. A cold front extending southward from the Clipper will slowly cross the area from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon bringing lighter northwesterly winds behind it and limiting the gustiness of the winds, which will reduce the fire weather concerns over the northern half of the area.

As the Clipper system progresses off to the east, another shortwave is expected to develop and dig into the Northern and Central Plains on Wednesday. This system will bring our next chance (50-60%) for precipitation to the area Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. A this point, models are in pretty good agreement that the system will arrive Wednesday evening with precipitation beginning after sunset. However, uncertainty still remains regarding atmospheric saturation, the longevity of the precipitation, and the precipitation type across northern MO. As the system moves through, low-to-mid level dry air will encroach on the backside of the precipitation and the timing of this dry air intrusion will determine when precipitation will end. The GFS is very aggressive in moving the dry air in with drying through the profile beginning around midnight while the NAM keeps the column saturated through 6am. Despite the GFS being quick to dry the column above 850-hPa, it keeps the near- surface layer saturated with model soundings showing the potential for drizzle to continue through the early morning hours. Regardless of how the event unfolds, precipitation totals will remain low with the NBM 25th percentile showing 0.00" and the 75th percentile showing 0.25".

The other question mark that remains is the primary precipitation type across northern MO. With the system moving through during the overnight hours and low temperatures expected to be in the lower 30s north of I-70. If a solution closer to the NAM's occurs and precipitation can continue through the overnight hours, then it is reasonable that some snow will be able to mix across northern MO. The best chances for this to occur are in northeastern MO where NBM probabilities show a 10-20% chance of measurable snowfall.

After the system exits, above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week before models diverge into the weekend with the GEFS continuing to advertise above normal temperatures and the ECMWF ensemble bringing a much colder regime to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions expected at all four terminals through the TAF period as some scattered high-level clouds float over the region. Light and variable winds this afternoon will become southerly at 5-10 kts overnight. LLWS is expected to develop by 08Z tomorrow morning, lasting through 14Z, with surface winds remaining southerly around 10-15 kts while winds at FL020 will be southwesterly at 45-50 kts. Surface winds will shift to southwesterly through the morning with gusts increasing to 25-30 kts through the end of the TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.