textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Weather Conditions To Start the Week

- Low Rain Chances East of Hwy. 63 Midweek

- Cooler Next Weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Mid and upper-level synoptic pattern is fairly progressive for the northern third of the CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces. This is currently resulting in modest mid-level ridging across the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley this afternoon, continuing the development of the surface anticyclone, but is starting to push southeastward. This will continue to keep skies mostly clear this evening. We will need to monitor fog trends this evening and overnight, but if winds hold between 3 and 5 kts, its development may be inhibited. Low-lying areas sheltered from the wind and river valleys may still fog in this evening. Tuesday into Wednesday morning, H5 short-wave and associated vort maxima travels out of the Rockies and de-amplifies the mid-level ridge, with dCVA developing a surface cyclone in the northern High Plains. Ahead of this lower-level flow turns more southwesterly, with increased WAA from the Central Plains toward the lower Missouri River Valley. This will send temperatures into the mid 60s for most of the forecast area, with areas further south of Interstate 70 potentially hitting the lower 70s. As the attendant cyclone continues to deepen, strong cold front will trail this system, and increase convergence heading into Wednesday.

The rate of H5 height falls will continue to increase as the stronger vort maxima moves overhead, along with surface pressure falls. While convergence will be increasing, current guidance focuses the moisture transport from the Ozarks into eastern Missouri, while in central and western Missouri, the air remains drier that may be the result of the dry conveyor belt wrapping around the low. Because of this, rain chances continue to remain east of Hwy. 63 Wednesday into Thursday, and mostly just outside of the forecast area. Current ensemble probabilities maintain less than 10 percent chance for measurable rain for our eastern zones, with higher probabilities into eastern Missouri. There may be enough lift to generate some light sprinkle activity, but overall forcing and moisture are aligning better further east.

The trailing cold front is progged to move through late Wednesday Night and early Thursday morning, which will push temperatures back down into the lower and mid 50s heading into the weekend. A strong 500mb ridge is expected to amplify over the western CONUS during the weekend, reinforcing northwesterly flow into the Central CONUS which will keep temperatures generally in the 50s. This may start deamplify late Saturday, bringing mid-level height falls back across the forecast area on Sunday, where light rain activity may be possible.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR and light variable winds prevail through the forecast period. Patchy fog is possible (particularly at KSTJ) overnight, but not expecting widespread dense fog so didn't introduce fog in the TAFs. Southeasterly winds pick back up to 5-10 kt tomorrow afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.