textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms (25-50%) are forecast this afternoon and early this evening, mainly south of I-70. While severe weather is not expected, the storms could produce brief gusty winds and heavy rainfall. - Temperature and humidity levels will continue to gradually climb, reaching the lower 90s today and Friday, the lower to middle 90s this weekend, and peaking in the middle to upper 90s on Monday.

- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to lower 100s today through this weekend, peaking around 100 to 110 degrees on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

We did get a few isolated showers this afternoon/evening, but all convective activity ceased after sunset leaving us with clear skies this evening. As of 10PM, temperatures are still hovering in the mid 70s to low 80s across the area. We remain mostly under the influence of broad ridging across the Central US, though a cut-off Low has migrated westward, centered over north Texas, advecting moisture back into mostly just the southern half of Missouri for now. This is what drove shower and storm activity mostly to our south, though a couple of showers and storms did spill north into our far south and southeastern counties.

As we go through today, the moisture plume from the southeast will migrate north, bringing this moisture surge farther north into our area. This will lead to isolated to scattered shower and storms generally as far north as I-70, but wouldn't be surprised if a couple spilled north of I-70 as well. While we will have a sufficient amount of diurnally driven instability, very limited vertical wind shear is evident in soundings which should inhibit organization of updrafts. This will keep storms "garden- variety", pulsy (short-lived), and fairly week. The primary hazard possible will be locally heavy rainfall as PWAT values will be around 2-2.25", in excess of the 90th percentile in sounding climatology for this time of year. This combined with slow storm motion could lead to pockets of heavy rain leading to isolated flash flood concerns. A secondary, lesser potential hazard will be for locally gusty winds from collapsing storms. Shower and storm activity should diminish fairly quickly after sunset, similar to today for storms to our south.

Going into the weekend we see ridging build back up out of the Deep South leading to additional moisture advection as well as increasing surface temperatures. With this, we'll see a bump in heat indices over the weekend, into the 100 to 105 range. Could potentially need a Heat Advisory for at least a portion of our area Saturday or Sunday.

The redevelopment of the LLJ oriented north-northeast out of Texas pushes north into western Missouri starting Friday night. With this, we may see the return of nocturnal MCS development. starting Friday night through the weekend. Due to much uncertainty in where storms may develop or track, precip chances remain low to below mentionable through the weekend. The ECMWF continues to show this potential scenario over our area, while the GFS keeps precipitation chances mostly to our north and east.

Going into next week we see the cut-off Low over Texas break down leading to the re-establishment of a prominent ridge over the Central US. Guidance however amplifies the ridge over the Rockies allowing northwesterly flow to push down into the Northern Plains which could lead to some relief in temperatures, especially toward the latter half of next week. Monday looks like it could be our hottest day through this stretch with actual temperatures warming into the upper 90s, near 100 degrees in many locations. With dew points staying in the low 70s, heat indices may get to 100-110 on Monday, likely necessitating heat headlines if the current forecast pans out. As we go through the week, though, temperatures trend back down due to the increasing influence of northwesterly flow aloft. We may see precip chances return as well later in the week due to the active nature of northwesterly flow across the Central Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Shallow fog will continue to impact STJ through 13z before diminishing. This afternoon (mainly between 19-01z) isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will develop south of the Missouri River and move north, possibly impacting IXD, MKC, and MCI this afternoon and early evening before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating.

Storm coverage still looks sparse enough to prevent more than a PROB30 mention at this time, but that could chance with the next TAF package. Cloud bases will be SCT-BKN between 2500-5000ft through evening before scattering and lifting. Winds will be light from the S to SSW around 3-6 kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.