textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for central MO and southeastern KS through 8 AM CDT.

* Warm on Saturday before a chance (30-50%) of showers and storms in the evening and overnight into Sunday; severe weather is not expected.

* Cooler temperatures Sunday before a warming trend heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A 500-hPa analysis depicts high amplitude ridging across the western CONUS with broad troughing over the eastern CONUS, leaving the Central Plains in northwesterly upper-level flow. The shortwave responsible for yesterday's showers and storms can be found just to the east of the area. Large scale subsidence on the backside of the shortwave has allowed skies to become clear. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient has led to light winds across the region, which combined with the clear skies and remnant moisture from the showers and storms has allowed for areas of dense fog to develop across central MO and southeastern KS. As such, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas along and south of a line from Macon MO to Paola KS until 8 AM CDT.

High pressure is expected to build to the south of the area this morning, leading to west-southwesterly winds. Temperatures will be fairly steady in the low 50s early this morning before climbing into the low-to-mid 80s this afternoon. Despite a lack of low-level moisture (dew points in the mid-40s), up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected to develop across northeastern MO this afternoon. A cold front associated with a low-pressure system over southern Ontario is expected to push south through IA and into northern MO by 22Z this afternoon. This cold front should provide enough lift to overcome the dry low-levels and produce isolated showers and storms this afternoon. The CAMs align with this thinking and depict spotty showers across northern MO. They remain pretty pessimistic about organized convection forming this afternoon, however, a rumble of thunder or two certainly cannot be ruled out.

As the cold front advances southward through the CWA Saturday evening and encounters slightly better moisture (dew points in the low-to-mid 50s), it will bring chances (30-50%) of showers and storms with it. However, given the timing being in the late evening, a lack of instability will mitigate any potential for strong to severe storms. The best chances for organized convection will be to our west where a mid-level shortwave will provide better timed upper-level support. The decaying remnants of these storms may make it into the western reaches of the CWA, but no severe weather is anticipated at this time.

Scattered showers will continue through Saturday night and into Sunday morning, with the cold front and precipitation moving out of the area by daybreak on Sunday. Northerly flow behind the cold front will push lows into the low-to-mid 50s Saturday night and keep temperatures to a seasonable range on Sunday with highs expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The seasonable temperatures will be short-lived, however, with the western CONUS ridge expected to flatten out and expand eastward by Monday producing mid-level height rises over the Central Plains. Surface high pressure and large scale subsidence will bring clear skies as temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Monday and the mid-to-upper 80s on Tuesday. A shortwave will bring a cold front and low-end precipitation chances (15-20%) to the area Tuesday evening. Wednesday will be slightly cooler (low-to-mid 80s) due to northerly flow behind the cold front before winds turn southerly once again and temperatures make a run at 90F by the end of the work week and into the weekend. The NBM currently shows a 40-50% chance of exceeding 90F on both Friday and Saturday, with even higher probabilities to the west of the CWA.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all four terminals through the TAF period. Patchy fog has been observed across the area this morning, however, it has been dissipating over the past couple of hours. With a continued improving trend expected, opted to not include any mention in the TAFs. Westerly winds will slowly strengthen for around 10 kts through the morning with 20 kt gusts expected at KSTJ this afternoon. A cold front will cross the area this afternoon, shifting winds to northerly. A mid- level cloud deck should also build in late this afternoon, persisting through the overnight. Low end chances (15-30%) for showers and storms exist this evening (as early as 00Z at KSTJ, 01Z at KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD) and into the overnight hours, however, confidence in coverage continues to remain too low for a PROB30 group at this point.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.