textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including heavy rainfall.

* Quiet weather early next week, then chances for storms return midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High pressure is building in early this morning and will settle over the mid Mississippi Valley later today. Winds will remain light through early afternoon, then shift southeast and increase to 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies and much lower humidity will make today a pleasant one. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s.

Moisture will begin returning tonight as warm air advection strengthens. A complex of storms may develop over western KS this evening, then track east along the moisture gradient to central or southern MO by early Saturday morning. This complex will be in its decaying phase and is not expected to be severe, but the remnant MCV may play a role in renewed development later in the morning. Another round of storms will develop closer to the southward advancing cold front in the afternoon across northeast KS, southern IA, and northern MO. An EML will spread east into eastern KS, with steep mid level lapse rates of 7.5 C/km extending eastward across northern and central MO. Strong destabilization is anticipated during the afternoon with ample CAPE developing in the presence of 40 kts of deep layer shear. Initial development could take the form of supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Eventually this activity will consolidate into a squall line or multiple clusters/complexes later in the afternoon and advance southeast with the cold front. The threat will evolve into predominantly damaging winds after this evolution occurs. Pwats around 2 inches will also bring a threat for torrential rain on already very wet soils and will pose a threat for flash flooding. A Flood Watch may be necessary once confidence in storm evolution increases. The storms will clear to the southeast late Saturday evening with cooler and drier air following in their wake.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The exiting upper level trough, alongside another shortwave digging down from the northern Plains, will provide brief amplified ridging across our area Sunday. Northerly winds will advect dry, cool air into the area, keeping appreciable PoPs further to the south and east and damping down maximum temperatures to the low-to-mid 70s (a very welcome reprieve from our heat and humidity this past week!). Going into early next week, northwesterly flow between an upper level trough near the Hudson Bay and an amplified ridge over the western CONUS will cause multiple shortwaves to traverse the upper- level flow. On Monday, the presence of a low-level ridge and surface high pressure will keep conditions relatively dry. Temperatures will rise once again to the low 80s with progressively southerly flow at the lowest levels, but moisture returns will not be nearly as substantial as they were this past week, possibly owing to a simulated band of precipitation barricading Gulf moisture further south. By Tuesday evening, low-level ridging deamplifies as a shortwave traverses the upper-level flow and an attendant cold front invigorates chance (20-40%) of PoPs through Wednesday. As the shortwave exits, a deep upper level trough and surface low over the northern CONUS will drape a cold front across the forecast area, and increase PoPs (40-60%) once again going into Wednesday evening. After the passage of this upper-level trough, synoptic models show signals of the front stalling and continuing chances (15-30%) of precipitation along/south of the I-70 corridor into Thursday. Continued southerly winds will prompt warm/moist advection through the extended that will bring temperatures back into the mid-high 80s with heat indices approaching the low-mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Clear skies through this evening, then increasing low-mid level clouds overnight. A few storms may develop overnight, but confidence for any TAF site is too low to include in this TAF set. Light and variable winds will become southeast 5-10 kts this afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.