textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat is expected today area wide. Heat index values of 105-115 anticipated. Hazardous heat is likely to continue into Monday. Heat indices ease slightly averaging around 100-105.

- There is an opportunity for air temperatures today and Monday to reach 100F.

- Low confidence in showers/storms across northern Missouri, which could impact heat and humidity.

- Temperatures and heat index values lower through the week; however, heat indices settle around 100F.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Ridging and northwest flow continue to dominate the weather pattern. Satellite imagery shows an expansive high across the eastern foothills of the Rockies while lower level analysis shows ridging across the Gulf Coast. This has created an environment favorable for dangerous heat across the area. This environment is boosted by antecedent saturated air which become readily apparent the moment you step outside. Dew point values Saturday reach or exceeded 80 degrees making it feel quite unpleasant outside. This launched heat index values well past 105-110 with some areas reaching 115 to even 120 degrees. Heat index values approaching these values is once again a possibility today.

The high over the eastern Rockies has not moved much in the past 24 hours placing us in the eastern quadrant of the system. This orient upper level flow northwest to southeast which typically tampers heat expectation; however, the already hot and humid environment mentioned earlier combined with steady warm air and moisture advection has more than sufficiently counteracted any potential upper level cold air advection. It also does not help that there has been additional pushes of warm air across the front range from the SW CONUS combined with orographically warmed air across the mountains. This results in few areas for cooler conditions to come from. However, what is NW upper level flow is able to tap into is slightly drier air. This ironically may cause temperatures to rise even higher than anticipated with an actual air temperatures of 100F not out of reach. Short term ensemble guidance paints high probabilities of this if the upper level drier air is able to mix downward through the afternoon. This potential rise into the triple digits is not expected to affect the heat index forecast that much as the rise in air temperature will likely be accompanied by a drop in dew point which balances out yielding a similar heat index value.

Monday continues to have some uncertainties. Shortwaves through the upper level flow gradually eat away at the lower level ridging presenting a potential for overnight convection. Any overnight storms are expected to be relatively isolated; however, them plus any residual cloud cover will significantly impact heat outlooks for Monday. Latest guidance continues to be confident in another day of hazardous heat Monday; however, there is a potential for temperatures and heat indices to rise above Extreme Heat thresholds. We will have to see how the observations and forecasts pan out today and tonight.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

After Monday, extreme heat and humidity will begin to ease up as winds shift out of the north with the passage of an upper level trough and associated surface low towards the northeast. Greater forecast deviations unfold at this point in the period, with poorer resolution of the synoptic environment. However, the general gist of the future forecast is increasing likelihood of shortwave disturbances bringing PoPs back into the forecast through midweek, with the exact timing and placement remaining uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Some BR impacts continue at STJ dissipating after sunrise; otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Sky coverage this morning is expected to open up leaving SCT high clouds during the daytime hours. Winds remain generally SW through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025- 057-060-102>105.