textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures again today.

- Significantly above normal temperatures expected tomorrow, with near record highs possible on Monday.

- Cooler temperatures and rain chances arrive by mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Current H5 analysis overlaid with water vapor imagery shows longwave and relatively high amplitude troughing across the eastern CONUS with ridging across the western Plains downstream of a closed mid level low centered off the coast of Baja California. Meanwhile, our CWA remains sandwiched between the troughing to the east and the ridging to the west, with northwesterly flow in place aloft. At the surface, 1030+ mb surface high pressure has settled in over Wisconsin, with high pressure extending southward into our CWA, resulting in clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30 degrees as of 3 AM. The mid/upper pattern becomes more zonal this afternoon, with some decent warm air advection at 850 mb, along with surface winds turning south southeasterly. Temperatures overperformed model guidance yesterday, and think there is a decent chance they overperform again today. Thus, have bumped temps up just a bit above NBM guidance. There should be a pretty sizable temperatures across the CWA today, with highs only reaching around 40 degrees across NE Missouri, but temperatures as warm as the mid 50s south/southwest of the KC metro. Even warmer temperatures are expected on Sunday, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s for most locations along with some modest moisture return out ahead of a subtle shortwave trough translating across the Plains.

The warming trend continues and intensifies into Monday as the previously mostly stationary closed mid level low centered over Baja California finally starts to make some eastward progress into NW Mexico, yielding higher amplified ridging into the central CONUS with the ridge axis over the CWA. The current forecast calls for Monday Max Ts in the mid to upper 60s for most locations (NBM 25th and 75th percentile for MaxT at MCI is 67 and 70 degrees, respectively), with the potential for some locations (primarily south and southwest of Kansas City) to reach the lower 70s. The record high at MCI for Monday is 72, which remains above the current NBM 75th percentile.

By Monday night into Tuesday morning, a mid/upper trough is projected to traverse across the Canadian Plains and into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region. This will send a cold front toward our CWA, and models continue to diverge a bit on when this front will enter and travel through the CWA. This uncertainty is reflected in the NBM 25th and 75th percentile for Tuesday MaxT at MCI, which is currently 54 and 66 degrees, respectively. It will also bring a chance for some rain to the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. For now, the forecast shows chance PoPs (30 to 50 percent) for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, with a high likelihood that any accumulated rainfall remains below 0.25". This front should be completely through the region by no later than Tuesday evening/night, and cooler temperatures are likely for Wednesday through Friday (although there exists quite a bit of spread among the 25th and 75th percentile for temps for Thursday and Friday). As of now, it seems like there may be quite a bit of cloud cover lingering over the region from Wednesday into Friday, with chance PoPs (30 percent) for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period. Winds remain light through the overnight then shift through east to SE after sunrise and accelerate through the morning. Some isolated gusts are possible during the afternoon. Winds dissipate after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.