textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Mild week ahead with record highs possible on Monday.

* Rain chances return to the region late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Shortwave over northern Montana today is on the leading edge of the northern branch of the upper level jet which looks to dominate through much of the week and largely remain north of the region- keeping temperatures on the warm side of seasonal norms. Lower level reflection of this wave is expected to intensify tonight leading to winds becoming southerly. This will lead to low level temperatures warming and by tomorrow afternoon 850 hpa temperatures are expected to warm to 13-15 C. While mixing will be relatively weak with elevated inversion, clear skies, dry airmass and southwest flow will lead to unseasonably mild conditions. Have raised forecast highs for Monday to near record levels at MCI and above record levels for STJ. HREF ensemble suggests a 20-30 percent of records being broken at MCI and a 60% chance of a new record at STJ.

Cold front associated with the wave to the north looks to build south through the region on Tuesday morning, and while the front looks to work through the region with little fanfare, temperatures aloft cool ~10 C resulting in cooler conditions Tuesday amd much of the remainder of the week. Despite the cooler conditions, temperatures largely remain at or above freezing south of highway 36.

Trough currently off the coast of the baja of California is expected to make its way across the southern US into eastern TX/gulf coast region Tuesday night into Wednesday. This wave looks to remain far enough to the south that any precipitation will mainly be contained to the I-44 corridor and south.

First piece of energy that is part of a developing trough off the west coast is expected to get sheared and propelled east by 150+ knot jet. The remnants are expected to arrive into the region Thursday into Friday creating a chance of rain across the region. The second piece of energy is expected to move across the southern US late week, potentially bringing a renewed threat of rain to the region next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions through the period. Light northwesterly winds shifting from the south this evening and increasing in speed after 15Z Monday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.