textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances continue this afternoon, with strong/severe storms remaining possible tonight/overnight. Continued hydrological/flash flooding concerns through the overnight into tomorrow morning.

- Strong/severe storm chances return tomorrow evening, primarily along/north of US-36. General PoPs continue through early next week.

- Heat and moisture return through the forecast period, with heat indices rising to the 90s across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The upper-level ridge and surface high pressure continue shifting off to the east as a shortwave traverses the upper-level flow towards our area. This shortwave has invigorated showers/storms over central KS, and will be the focus point of our greatest convective activity later tonight. With deep, sustained south/southwesterly winds, warm/moist air advection coupled with daytime heating and steep low-level lapse rates will create favorable conditions for vigorous convection, especially for storms that are able to initiate this afternoon/early evening. However, with marginal shear profiles/ mid-level lapse rates, the probability of organized, persistent convection is not high. Primary hazards with these afternoon storms would be heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and subsevere hail. As the shortwave progresses over our area into the late evening/overnight, the intensification of the LLJ will provide better deep shear profiles for more organized convection. With better organized convection, the risk of damaging winds and severe hail increases with any robust storms, as well as the risk for an isolated tornado with increased low-level helicity. Storms will progressively become more elevated overnight as the nighttime boundary layer establishes itself and SBCAPE diminishes, with severe hazards (mainly severe winds via downbursts) persisting through the morning until the LLJ deintensifies. With this activity, another concern will be localized heavy rainfall. PWAT values currently reside around/above the 90th percentile of climatology for this period with deep warm cloud depths indicated by forecast soundings and the 18z sounding out of TOP. Thus, any showers/storms that develop during the period will be very precip efficient. This, coupled with increased runoff due to dry soils from our previous quiet/dry weather, will enhance concerns for flash flooding. Forecast QPF consistently remains around 1-3" across a swath of northwest MO/northeast KS where a Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect, with probabilistic guidance showing low chances (~20-40%) of 24 hour QPF exceeding 3" through tomorrow morning.

As the shortwave trough exits across the upper-level flow, a brief lull in activity is expected through the morning tomorrow. Continued southerly winds and subsequent warm/moist advection will allow our environment to recover instability, and will enhance opportunities for showers/storms tomorrow evening over northern MO, generally along/north of the US-36 corridor. Shear profiles will be marginally improved relative to today over northern MO, with improved mid-level lapse rates contributing to a greater risk for severe activity. Guidance has been increasingly favoring the bulk of activity occurring north of our area in southern/central IA, but there are still some runs of convective models that place activity within our forecast area (alongside a Level 2/5 Slight Risk from SPC) so have kept increased PoPs in northern MO with this in mind. Forecast PWAT values continue to remain around/above the 90th percentile for this time period, which continues concerns for efficient rainfall and subsequent hydrological issues for areas that see rainfall, especially for areas with increased imperviousness to water due to rainfall from today. As this activity exits on Saturday, brief amplified ridging will provide another lull in activity. With increased temperature/moisture advection, heat indices are expected to continue to rise through the short term, reaching the low/mid 90s by Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Amplified ridging will exit to the east early Sunday while a closed low traverses the upper-level flow and lifts to the northeast. This disturbance will increase PoPs to close out the weekend, with overall severe chances remaining low due to minimal CAPE and marginal shear/lapse rates. As the shortwave continues to lift towards the northeast, PoPs will gradually shift towards the east through Monday before amplified ridging/high pressure is forecast to build back in by midweek. With continued heat/moisture advection, heat indices are forecast to continue rising, enhancing heat risk concerns through the remainder of the forecast period. With this, though, some uncertainty remains in just how much moisture will actually be advected into our area to cause heat indices to rise as high as some guidance indicates. There is some spread in model solutions regarding forecasted dewpoints that will have to be monitored in subsequent forecasts to see if there is better convergence before midweek next week, as this will dictate just how high heat indices rise.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Gusty southerly winds are expected to continue through the evening and overnight periods. The primary concern is the chance for storms this evening and overnight. Some uncertainty remains in the areal extent of the storms, particularly further south. Have opted for a TEMPO group at all four terminals with confidence in occurrence being highest at KSTJ, KMCI, and KMKC. MVFR conditions will accompany any storms that do impact the terminals.

Prevailing MVFR CIGs are expected by early tomorrow morning and should persist through the morning hours. This cloud deck should scatter out by around midday with a few mid-to-high level clouds hanging around through the afternoon. Southerly winds will continue through the day tomorrow with gusts subsiding in the afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Friday morning for MOZ001>005-011>013-020. KS...Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ025-102.