textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and humid conditions are expected the first half of the week. Greatest confidence for persistent dangerous heat is across central Missouri, where a extreme heat warning has been issued through Wednesday evening. Farther north, there is less confidence in high temperatures, and as such, have taken a day by day approach to headlines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Broad upper level ridge across the southern US is going to lead to heat building into the region for at least the first half of the week; however, a series of disturbances will challenge the potential of reaching advisory level heat Monday - Wednesday. A strong low level jet has developed across the Central Plains extending from the panhandle of TX into southwest Iowa. This has lead to the development of elevated storms rooted somewhere near 700 mb. These storms are largely expected to remain sub severe through the morning hours, pushing southeast in time. Rainfall amounts are expected to be generally fairly light, less than a quarter of an inch, but in areas where there is some training, could see rainfall amounts approach an inch. Storms should largely push southeast into the morning hours and weaken after sunrise leading to gradual clearing.

00Z soundings from both SGF and LZK displayed abundant moisture in the near surface layer. Elevated showers this morning should also provide additional fuel leading to muggy conditions with solar heating today. With expected high temperatures in the 90s and dewpoints in the 70s, expect heat indices to warm towards 105 F this afternoon. Have coordinated a heat advisory regionwide for today, with the exception of central Missouri where limited relief from the heat is expected until mid-week. As a result, have an excessive heat warning beginning today and continuing into Wednesday evening.

Shortwave building east along the northern periphery of the upper ridge may interact with the low level jet again tonight leading to more elevated showers and storms across the region. Residual cloud cover/elevated showers on Monday leads to uncertainty of high temperatures across northern Missouri, and as a result, don't have heat headlines across northern Missouri beyond today- despite the potential.

An additional wave on Tuesday leads to the potential for additional thunderstorms across northern Missouri. Where the convection does not develop, hot and humid conditions are expected to persist (most likely across central MO). Northern Missouri remains outlooked Tuesday and Wednesday for the potential of a strong storm or two.

A stationary boundary to the north is expected to push south on Wednesday leading to more temperate and seasonal conditions through the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Currently VFR at all terminals with southeasterly winds around 10 knots. Robust convection has developed across SW Iowa late this evening, and some of this activity may make it south of the Iowa line into NW Missouri. However, this should weaken as it slowly moves south. Isolated to scattered showers may develop in the STJ area by around 8z, with these moving south southeastward toward the KC metro terminal by around 11z. Showers should dissipate and/or move out by 15z. VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds should become southerly by later Sunday morning, with gusts up to 20 to 22 knots during the afternoon hours.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037-038. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ039-040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-102>105. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057-060.