textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Active weather pattern continues with multiple chances for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon, tomorrow and again Friday night.

* Warm temperatures (upper 70s to low/mid 80s) are expected to persist through the work week, with cooler and drier conditions expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Residual cloud cover has mostly mixed out this afternoon with strong surface heating sending temperatures into the low to mid 80s. Strong/deep mixing is starting and dewpoints are starting to drop at Topeka and into east central Kansas. This for now is leading to a fairly diffuse dryline and poor low level convergence. Although high clouds streaming in over Kansas and Oklahoma show at least some signal for an increase in modest large scale ascent in a few hours. ACARS soundings show a modest inversion and modified RAP soundings with ACARS input show a convective temp around 85 to 87 F. Most high resolution guidance sets the strongest part of the dryline up from about Ottawa, KS to St. Joseph, MO by 3 to 5 pm but it looks too diffuse to be a slam-dunk zone for convective initiation.

Most CAM guidance initiates convection along the leading edge of an upper level ripple (likely shown by the high clouds in KS/OK) in southeast Kansas by 4 to 5 pm and sends it northeastward into the forecast area in the late afternoon and evening - and that appears to be the most likely scenario. By that time T/Td spreads will be about 25 to 30 degrees with lower level flow at 20 to 30 kts out of the southwest. CAM guidance (again probably reasonably) favors multi-cell clusters that try to organized into a few isolated bowing segments as they move northeastward. This would pose a threat for damaging wind with deeper cores producing a large hail threat given the fairly steep mid level lapse rates and available deep layer shear. Hodographs are favorable enough for some tornado threat, particularly if any cells maintain discrete elements. Rain chances then look to decrease through the overnight.

Wednesday the shortwave trough axis currently over the Rockies pushes through the region and sends the cold front currently lagging back over the high Plains towards the area. This looks to create much better shower/storm coverage, as well as sparking things off earlier in the day, with showers and storms becoming more likely by early to mid afternoon. Some severe threat (wind/hail) looks to accompany this activity as well. Although instability/diurnal heating will be more limited by cloud cover and the time of day which may mitigate the threat.

The cold front clears the area Wednesday night but we get back into return flow almost immediately on Thursday with dewpoints reloading into the mid 60s. Light low level warm air advection may spark a shower or two in this period but the main focus will be on Friday night into Saturday. A strong/sharp shortwave trough interacts with the exit region of a 120kt or so southwesterly jet maxima moving out of the southern Plains, creating strong ascent and spinning up a 991mb or so surface low in the lee of the Rockies that quickly moves northeastward into the western Great Lakes. There appears to be yet another severe weather threat with this period (SPC maintains a 30% Day 4 risk). Convective mode may be messy however due to strong large scale ascent and low-level kinematics. What does appear likely to be in place is strong deep layer and low-level shear (850 mb winds 50-55kts) with sufficient instability. This period will need to continue to be monitored for the potential for all-modes of severe weather before a strong cold front finally sends the region back to a cooler and more stable pattern through most of the rest of the forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Residual scattered cloud deck at 2500-3000 ft should mix out in the next hour or so. VFR conditions are then expected until an area of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the southwest in the late afternoon/early evening. IFR visibility and strong gusty winds (40-50 kt) can be expected with any storms that impact airfields. Light rain showers likely persist behind any thunderstorms amid prevailing VFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow until showers and thunderstorms redevelop in the early to late afternoon, after the end of the current TAF period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.