textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions continue through the weekend. The Extreme Heat Warning was extended through Saturday for counties along and south of the Missouri River, with a Heat Advisory on Saturday for northern Missouri.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to move across northern Missouri Friday morning and again overnight into Saturday morning. Severe chances are low, but should storms strengthen then hail and wind are the main hazards.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday evening and into the overnight. Hail and wind are the primary concerns, along with pockets of heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The thermal ridge remains the primary influence across the area with hot and humid conditions persisting. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s and the heat index is already into the upper 90s to low 100s. Expect conditions to warm further the next few hours this afternoon through sunset. Hot and humid conditions will continue on Friday with the Extreme Heat Warning continuing through 9 pm.

The break down of the thermal ridge begins Friday morning as an MCS moves across Iowa with convection trailing across northern Missouri through the morning. Convection will be fading as it reaches Missouri with less available instability, organizing shear, and diminishing low level jet. As such, the primary concern with morning convection is wind and hail. By afternoon isolated convection is possible, developing on outflow boundaries put down by morning convection. These storms will have little shear to help organize and will likely be very pulsey in nature if they develop.

Late Friday night another MCS will move across Nebraska and Kansas, moving into Missouri overnight Friday through Saturday morning. Gusty winds are the primary concern as the MCS decays across Missouri though small hail is possible in stronger cores. The warm and humid conditions will also put a damper on better hail growth. After morning convection much of the daytime Saturday will be dry, though hot and humid. Heat indicies will again reach near 100 in northern Missouri to 105-110 into central MO. By late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely to develop on outflow boundaries from the morning convection. This time storms have better upper level support as a more robust short wave flattens the ridge. The atmosphere remains deeply unstable with 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE while 40+ kts of 0-6km shear will help to organize storms on Saturday evening. This could be impactful to those with outdoor plans for the Independence Day holiday weekend. Monitor for the latest forecast and be ready to receive warnings if they are issues. Storms look to continue overnight and into Sunday morning. Hail and damaging wind are the primary concern with storms on Saturday evening. Additionally, with high PWATs around 2", deep moisture transport into the area, and deep warm cloud layers of 4000+ m, these storms will be efficient rain producers.

Uncertainty increases Sunday into early next week with shortwave ridging across the ridge as it continues to attempt to rebuild. Quicker rebuild would lead to warmer temperatures while slower rebuild would result in continued chances for scattered thunderstorms through early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy south southwest winds will gust around 20 kts this afternoon, diminishing after sunset.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025. Heat Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057- 060-103>105. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ102. Heat Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.