textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures through Friday (upper 70s to lower 80s)

- The upcoming weekend will see more heat and temperatures flipping to above normal (upper 80s and lower 90s)

- Rain chances return Tuesday afternoon and more so Tuesday night (20-60%). The highest rain chances for the period are currently Thursday evening - Friday morning (50-80%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This evening will remain dry and unseasonably cool (upper 60s to lower 70s) with light winds making for a very pleasant evening. Many locations will see overnight lows in the 50s.

Tuesday into Tuesday Night Rain Chances... Cool northwesterly flow pattern will continue through at least mid week with high temperatures well below normal. We are watching a weak/subtle shortwave that is expected to track through the forecast area Tuesday evening. Several forecast models indicate a possible area of showers/thunderstorms tracking across central Nebraska into northern Kansas Tuesday morning into the afternoon hours. Most models and ensemble members dive this convection more to the northwest and west of our forecast area with the precipitation dieing out Tuesday afternoon to our west. The 12Z and now 18Z HRRR have been the furthest east with this Tuesday afternoon showers/thunderstorms and would impact our northeast and eastern forecast area. There is still a lot of uncertainty, but decided to introduce at least 20-30% rain chances for Tuesday afternoon across our eastern zones. Currently the better chance for precipitation across our area based on the NBM and plurality of the models would be later Tuesday night (30-60%) and favor our southeastern zones.

Wednesday... The Tuesday evening shortwave will depart, but we could still see come linger showers/thunderstorms mainly across our south Wednesday morning with decreasing precipitation chances from north to south through the day. We will start to warm up but only back to around 80 which is still below normal for this time of year.

Thursday Through Friday... The overall pattern becomes zonal and a more pronounced shortwave is expected to track across Kansas and Missouri. Exact timing is still fairly questionable, but rain chances will be on the increase peaking Thursday evening/night into Friday morning (50-80%). Will hopefully be better able to nail down the timing of rain chances as we get closer.

Saturday through Monday... Zonal flow should transition into upper level ridging which should bring warmer (90s) and generally drier conditions back to the region. Heat index values could climb into the 100-110 range by Sunday and Monday if this pattern transpires. The model spread is currently rather tight for this period indicating good confidence in this expected warmup.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Surface high pressure resides over the region this evening with cloud cover decreasing. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High pressure gets shunted off to the east tomorrow with southeast winds streaming back into the terminals. An approaching shortwave in the late afternoon may produce some thunderstorms near the end of the forecast period. No severe weather is expected at this time but a few strong storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.