textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A Flood Watch remains in effect for Linn County in Kansas and Bates and Henry counties in Missouri through midday Thursday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop late tonight into Thursday morning with additional rainfall of 1 to 1.25 across the far southern KEAX CWA.

- Much cooler weather is on tap for the end of the week with the potential for frost by early Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

18z/1pm surface analysis shows a 1025mb high centered over the Dakotas...while a stationary frontal boundary remains draped from central Ohio southwestward to the Texas panhandle. Several weak waves have been tracking along the front today, resulting in scattered light showers across the southern half of the KEAX CWA.

As a vigorous upper low evident on the latest water vapor imagery over western Colorado pivots northeastward, surface cyclogenesis will occur across northern Texas tonight...with the low tracking into northern Indiana by Thursday evening. Rich deep-layer moisture is currently in place as evidenced by NAM precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches. As stronger forcing approaches from the west, showers will become more numerous later tonight into Thursday morning. CAMs have trended slower with the precip with general consensus suggesting only scattered showers until after 09z/4am. Based on the juxtaposition of strongest lift and deepest moisture, the most widespread rainfall will focus between 09z/4am and 15z/10am. While the strongest instability will remain further south in closer proximity to the front, NAM MUCAPE values increase to 200-400J/kg...supporting a few rumbles of thunder. Once the initial forcing lifts N/NE of the area, the rain will diminish to scattered showers by late Thursday morning. Additional rainfall through Thursday will range from around 0.50 near the Iowa border to 1 to 1.25 across the far southern counties in the Flood Watch.

Once the surface low tracks into the Great Lakes, it will pull a strong cold front through the area Thursday afternoon...resulting in an end to the showers and introducing a much cooler airmass for the end of the week. As Canadian high pressure builds southward, strong/gusty northwesterly winds will develop behind the departing front Thursday night into Friday. Friday morning will be the windiest period with the 13z NBM indicating a 40-70% chance of gusts greater than 30mph. After high temperatures only in the 50s, clear skies and diminishing winds will allow lows to dip into the lower to middle 30s Friday night. While there is still some uncertainty concerning wind speeds, confidence continues to grow for widespread frost by early Saturday morning. After that, the cool fall weather will continue through the weekend...followed by a return to above normal temps in the lower to middle 70s by next Tuesday/Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail at most of the terminals early this afternoon...with IFR lingering further south at KIXD. Based on satellite trends and the latest HRRR/RAP output, it appears these conditions will remain in place until later tonight when low pressure tracks from Texas into the Ozarks...spreading lower clouds and precip northward across the entire area. CAMs have been trending slower with precip onset with most guidance suggesting widespread showers holding off until after 09z. Forecast soundings show ceilings lowering to IFR at all sites between 07z and 09z, followed by a period of rain with a few embedded thunderstorms through about 14z. After that, the showers will diminish...but IFR is expected to persist through 18z Thu.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MOZ053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ060.