textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Gusty NW winds and coldest air of season settle in as winter storm system exits eastward this evening. - NW winds and gusts into the 20s and 30s mph respectively this evening and overnight - Highs fall into 20s for Sun/Mon

* Another round of snowfall likely for Monday - Currently best chances along/north of I-70 - All snow, a couple to few inches possible - Could affect morning and evening commutes

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The mid-upper level wave responsible for the ongoing winter storm system continues to move across the Plains this afternoon. It has pivoted to take on a negative tilt, while its surface low reflection has glided NE out of SE Kansas and currently resides across north- central Missouri. This too has pushed bulk of notable precipitation eastward toward IL/WI. Remaining precipitation within the CWA and state in general is primarily light in nature and continues to range from rain (S of US-36) and snow (N of US-36) ahead of the cold front and then some brief light snow accompanying the post-cold frontal passage back over portions of western Missouri.

Now as for what transpired through the day... for the most part, the forecast carried out as anticipated. There was a tight rain/snow line that gradually lifted northward with the surface low and warm front, yielding majority of accumulating snow around/north of Maryville to Chillicothe to Moberly. This was generally a county or so further south than initially forecast, which too led to some heavy accumulations >6" into the Winter Weather Advisory areas of Grundy/Linn/Macon/Randolph counties. Fortunately, the lifting warm front significantly limited travel hazards and accumulating snowfall outside of the Advisory area. By early this afternoon, cold front too had entered W/NW portions of the CWA. And coupled with a building surface high over the Northern Plains, yielded quick introduction of strong and gusty NW winds with sites already reporting sustained winds into the mid 20s mph and wind gusts into the mid and upper 30s mph. As the mid-upper level wave and surface continue to exit the area to the NE, the cold front and strong NW winds will overspread the wider area and allow these gusty conditions to continue through much of the overnight before any notable easing. Expect gusts at least into the low-mid 30s mph throughout. This too will help usher in the coldest air mass of the season, yielding highs only into the 20s deg F for Sun/Mon. Fortunately some cloud cover will help limit the bottom from falling out overnight tonight and Sunday night, but too will be cold in the lower 10s to teens in most cases.

Looking forward, cold start to the week, which too will see another opportunity for widespread wintry precipitation. The 12z synoptic (GFS/Canadian/Euro) guidance runs and ensembles are in remarkably good agreement on the timing and location of this next mid-upper level wave affecting the area on Monday. Fortunately, lack of any low-mid level support off the Rockies prevents any surface reflection development as the wave traverses the Rockies late this weekend and Monday. Deterministic Euro/GFS suggest potential for widespread light accumulations and a corridor of potentially moderate accumulations. This too is reflected within individual ensemble depictions, though with the typical variability in location and magnitude. Looking at cross sections Monday, there is notable FGen forcing in/around the 700mb level, including the potential for some at least transient slant wise instability as seen in EPV* and Theta-E contours. As noted, no doubt it will be all snow given the Arctic airmass that will be in place. And higher end amounts may be limited with initial dry airmass to overcome (top down saturation) and depicted limited DGZ depth. However, soundings do denote that if conditions end up a degree or two colder, much of the column and especially the region of greatest lift, may reside in the DGZ. Near- surface winds too appear poised to be on the lighter side, limiting fracturing. As with any banding, the area of greatest snowfall will likely be fairly narrow, on the order of the width of a county or two. At this point in time, ensembles and NBM probabilities do show greatest (significant actually) confidence in areas N of I-70. This includes probabilities of 1" or greater of >90% in GFS/Canadian/ECMWF ensembles and >80% in the NBM (which is heavily influenced by that trio at that time point). While banding likely washed out in the coarser ECMWF/Canadian at that time, GFS does paint a stripe of >40-50% probability for 3" or greater N of I-70 as well. Main takeaway here is for at least light accumulations appearing likely for central to northern Missouri, and the potential for moderate to borderline heavy accumulations where mid-level banding does occur. Timing currently suggest potential to impact one or both of the morning and evening commutes as well. Fortunately, the time over which this snowfall may occur may help quell robust impacts to travel but may conversely yield prolonged at least nuisance impacts.

Some limited moderation of temperatures through the work week as the large scale flow goes more zonal, but lack of strong surface flow will prevent too much more than 30s highs in most cases. And even less moderation over snowpack areas. After the Monday snow potential, next opportunity may be late week as a mid-upper level wave drifts out of the SW CONUS and into the Southern/Central Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

MVFR cigs are expected to prevail thru 22Z-00Z when they are forecast to become bkn and lift to 3-4kft. Winds will be out of the NW btn 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts thru 15Z-16Z aft which winds will relax and become NW/NNW btn 10-15kts. Aft 23Z winds will become northerly and diminish to 5-10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.