textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Main focus for severe weather and heavy rain today is across southern and central MO with all hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) possible. Non-severe showers and storms are possible across northern MO.

- Tonight, a cold front will bring much cooler across the region.

- Rest of the week, expect below normal temperatures mostly dry conditions. The risk for hazardous weather is very low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Today and Tonight, early afternoon satellite imagery and surface observations showed a cold front passing through the region, with temperatures in the 50s and northwest wind behind this front. Meanwhile, ahead of the cold front, temperatures are near 80F with southwest winds. An outflow boundary from the early morning storms was laid out west-to-east south of I-70. The warm, unstable air ahead of the cold front and south of the outflow boundary will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. We expect that these storms will be severe, but most favored area for storms is south and east of the forecast area, from central Missouri extending toward Illinois. HiRes guidance shows storm develop in this region early this afternoon, with Updraft Helicity swaths supporting the environmental conditions that these storms will indeed be supercells.

One question regarding severe weather is how long these storms will remain discrete before congealing into a line. If this happens more quickly, then the hail and strong tornado threat transitions more to wind and weak tornadoes. Regardless, the majority of the storms develop east of the forecast area, so our severe weather threat is across the southern tiers of counties from now until late afternoon. Later this evening in the wake of the cold front, there could be some scattered showers or thunderstorms, but these will not produce severe weather or heavy rain. Instead, expect northwest winds with cooler and drier air moving across the region.

Tuesday through Monday, no hazardous weather is expected at this time. On Tuesday an upper level wave will bring some rain across the MO/AR line, but this will lack instability, and the heaviest rain will be south of the state border. On Wednesday northwest flow will lead to upper level subsidence and surface high pressure, meaning light winds and sunny skies. Another weak wave will move through Thursday bringing low chances (10 to 20 percent) for rain, but any amounts should be less than a quarter of an inch. Looking ahead, high pressure will remain in control with dry conditions and light northerly winds on Friday and Saturday. As the surface high advances toward the Tennessee River Valley, southerly winds will bring in slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A cold front will move through the region this afternoon and bring northwest winds, along with the potential for scattered showers/thunderstorms, and MVFR ceilings.

This front has already passed through KSTJ, and is on the doorstep of KMCI, KMKC, and KIXD. A few showers have developed behind this front and could impact all TAF sites, but confidence is highest at KSTJ, so have only included a mention there, with 1hr of tempo thunder.

Once the front moves through this evening, forecast guidance continues to show MVFR ceilings, so did bring those in at KMCI, KMKC, and KSTJ. These ceilings should lift and scatter out to VFR late Tuesday morning or early Tuesday afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ011>014-020>025- 028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105.