textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms will persist through the morning across eastern KS and western MO, with some impact on later storm development further west.

- Strong/severe storms anticipated to develop further east during the afternoon and into the evening, with all severe hazards possible.

- Mostly quiet forecast period ahead, with some isolated chances (20- 40%) for showers/storms through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Continued convective activity is expected through the overnight hours into the morning today. From a mesoanalysis perspective, elevated storm modes have been able to persist through the night with adequate MLCAPE values (around 1000-1500 J/kg) and ample environmental shear (50-60 kts) along the left exit region of the LLJ. An elevated dry layer persists to the southeast of the main line, with upscale growth occurring more towards the northeast through time. These storms have a history of producing large hail and damaging winds further west, which will continue to be the concern through the overnight period. Current CAM guidance shows this cluster of storms congealing into a line that will push towards the southeast during the early morning hours, with consistency between subsequent iterations of the HRRR through the night and reflected by the 6z run of the RAP. However, continued mesoanalysis will be the greater influence on subsequent updates to the forecast as the event progresses. With this line of storms, there is concern for flash flooding along a line through the KC Metro. Present PWAT values over our immediate forecast area reside around 1-1.5 inches, but our threshold for meeting flash flood guidance for hourly precipitation is around 1.5 inches, which will easily be met/exceeded in convective storms. Thus, will be continuing to monitor the potential for flooding/flash flooding tonight and into this morning, especially for areas where training precipitation could occur over the next few hours.

Regarding the remainder of the day today, any lingering shower/storm activity should gradually exit the area through the afternoon as the cold front begins to push in with a deepening surface cyclone lifting from the OK Panhandle towards the northeast. There is some uncertainty on how current weather will impact storms developing further west, as current storms would aid in further stabilizing the atmosphere. Greater confidence in severe activity exists further towards the east around Kirksville/Macon area, with greater instability generation during the day and more significant synoptic forcing along an eroding capping inversion. With any storms that initiate along the cold frontal boundary, the threat for all severe hazards exists, with moderate mid- level lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8 degC/km and effective shear around 50-60 kts supporting organized storm development. Some CAMs try to force activity behind the passing cold front, but the threat of these storms scaling upward into severe storms remains lower, as the cold front will effectively wipe out any favorable storm environment as it passes through.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

The upper level trough north of the Great Lakes will generate shortwaves that will invigorate some chance of precipitation through the remainder of this week, with the chance (30-50%) for showers/storms south of the US-50 corridor Tuesday afternoon/evening. Otherwise, weather will remain generally quiet as we reside under northwest flow with the upper level trough digging towards the Great Lakes through the period. There is some chance for additional precipitation chances (10-30%) late Thursday/early Friday, but general model deviance at this point does not place high confidence in this outcome. Highs will remain much cooler than in previous days, with highs forecasted in the low-mid 60s through much of the forecast period before warming back up near the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Very messy TAF period, with lots of variables to consider. Current storms progressing through terminals, with storms clear of northern terminals at this time. Weather is expected to clear from terminals at around 13z, with lingering showers/storms possible at southern terminals through 15z with development on the back edge of current storm line. Around early/mid afternoon, expecting gusts to pick up as winds shift from southeasterly towards the north/northwest through the period. Also expecting ceilings to gradually lift and clear through the afternoon. Confidence is not high enough in a weather mention for this afternoon, so have elected to leave it out of this TAF issuance to evaluate forecast confidence at the next issuance.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.