textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances continue early this morning. Hydrological/flash flooding concerns persist until the rain exits to the east later this morning.

- Strong/severe storm chances return tomorrow evening, primarily along/north of US-36. General PoPs continue through early next week.

- Heat and moisture return through the forecast period, with heat indices rising to the 90s across the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Ongoing rain and convection this morning will gradually pull eastward with time. The rain is generally expected to end from west to east from around 5-10am. Eastern portions of the CWA could see this linger a bit further into the late morning, but any rain that lingers this long should be fairly light. The main risks for the rest of the morning will be lightning and flooding. The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through 7 AM for northwestern MO and northeast KS.

As the shortwave trough exits, we will lose the needed lift and the rain/storms will end. This should cause a lull in activity for the late morning and afternoon. Southerly flow and WAA will continue in the low and mid level which should allow for the environment to recover nicely. ie: raising temperatures and dewpoints despite some linger cloud cover. Skies are expected to eventually clear later this afternoon into the early evening which should just further aid in the destabilization. The best chances for rain and storms to develop are expected to be mainly along and north of the US-36 corridor. This will be in the closest proximity to the track of the sfc low pressure system that is expected to pass to our north through IA. Shear looks to be better around that 30 kt threshold needed for some better storm organization. Guidance currently supports a more linear storm progression with storms developing to our west and north then unzipping down the cold front. The better chances for any supercellular development looks to stay to our north with the better shear and instability. The main hazards are going to be winds and hail. Can't rule out the potential for tornadic activity especially with the SRH around 100 m^2s^2. This leaves most of the tor concerns to be along the lines of a QLSC with any bowing segment. This storm activity is expected to develop this evening and linger into the overnight hours Friday. Similar to this morning, it should transition to more of a hydro concern.

Speaking of hydro, PWAT values remain high around or just above the 90th percentile for this time of year. With rain expected over the same areas that are already seeing issues this morning, its likely that any additional rainfall could lead to subsequent hydro issues.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Upper level ridging will amplify across the central CONUS this weekend while a trough deepens across the Pacific Northwest. This amplified ridge will move east with time into the eastern CONUS for early next week. All the while, a cut off low will eject out of the TX toward KS/MO late Saturday and Sunday. POPs will build across the region from the southwest to the northeast early Sunday as this cut off low builds in. Ahead of this incoming cut off low, mid and low level WAA will be well underway with the sustained south to southwest winds. Dewpoints will climb throughout the day Saturday and are expected to reach the low 70s. As temps and dewpoints climb, there should be good afternoon destabilization for rain and storms. The one variable holding us back here will be our wind shear. This should limit the potential for any stronger storms across the CWA, which will leave lightning and thunder as the main concern. With multiple rounds of rain across northern MO prior to the weekend, we will need to keep an eye on the expected rain fall and how saturated our soils are. PWATs generally range from around 1.5 to 2 inches at this time across MO/KS. So could see some prolonged rain and potentially heavy rain at times for Sunday and Monday.

Precipitation chances will linger into early next week with POPs around 40-70% Monday morning. Precip chances will decrease from west to east with time with more drier air working in. As the cut off low pulls away to the northeast, the larger scale ridging will take over as the dominant pattern Tuesday. With largely southerly to southwesterly flow, WAA will remain across the region. That combined with the ridging will lead to some warm and sticky conditions for EAX. Again, the average among guidance did jump a bit in regards to temps and dewpoints from roughly Tuesday through Thursday. Highs generally are in the low 90s, but dewpoints range from the lower to upper 70s. The combination of high temps and dewpoints due lead to some heat index concerns, however, there is lower confidence in dewpoints reaching the upper 70s. Its going to take some serious WAA out of the gulf to actualize those higher dewpoints. Long and short is if you are susceptible to high heat keep an eye on Tuesday through Thursday, but dont be shocked if there is a trend downward away from those higher dewpoints.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 705 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

MVFR ceilings will linger through this morning as the last of the rain moves northeast out of Missouri. This cloud desk should scatter out late morning into the afternoon leading to partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions. MVFR ceilings are expected to return across northern MO this evening into tonight as additional showers and thunderstorms develop. This should only impact terminals along and north of US-36 (including STJ). Ceilings around 3.5 kft and visibilities around 4 SM will be possible with the developing rain/thunderstorms. Storms will linger through the overnight hours into Saturday morning.

Breezy south winds this morning will diminish this afternoon as the skies begin to clear. South to southwest winds are expected through the period.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.