textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather will persist through the afternoon and then we turn our attention to storms moving in from the northwest this evening, mainly north of Kansas City.

- Severe storms (mainly strong winds) possible late tonight into early Sunday morning. Heavy rain with flood potential is forecast. A Flood Watch is in effect.

- Additional severe thunderstorm redevelopment is possible Sunday afternoon from Kansas City south and southeast.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

This afternoon and evening...

Am closely watching ongoing severe thunderstorms across central and southeastern Nebraska associated with upper level shortwave trough that is tracking across the central plains. Latest 12Z models show a wide variety of possible convective evolution scenarios. The HRRR model runs consistently weaken and track the Nebraska convection in a more easterly direction with the mean upper flow keeping it north of the Kansas City metro area this evening with showers and weakening thunderstorms mainly north of St Joseph. In this scenario the Kansas City metro area would remain dry until around or after midnight.

The 12Z RRFS and several REFS members better maintain the Nebraska convection and dive this stronger convection more towards the southeast until it eventually weakens. These solutions could threaten the Kansas City metro area with thunderstorms during the evening hours 8-midnight. However, these are generally outliers and the most likely storm track will be somewhere between the more northern HRRR runs and the more southern RRFS/REFS.

Radar trends at 2:15 PM over Nebraska already indicate a weakening trend with the strongest cells. The strong cells have been moving southeast, but once they weaken they should start to be more influenced by the mean upper flow and track more east. The rain shield out ahead of the last strong storm near Hebron will result in a less favorable storm environment and continued overall weakening of this storm complex is expected. Therefore, the remaining showers and decaying thunderstorms should track more easterly and mainly impact areas north of Saint Joseph this evening.

The thunderstorms that are most likely to impact the KC area and points further south will not develop until 4-5 PM across far northwestern Kansas and are not likely to arrive until after midnight. Can not rule out a few isolated storms developing just ahead of this late evening Kansas convection that could impact KC prior to midnight, but just a small chance 20-30%. The high chances (>80%) for the KC and areas to the south and east will be after midnight and especially a few hours either side of sunrise Sunday morning.

The northern thunderstorms (north of KC) this evening do not have much instability to work with and should be elevated greatly limiting the severe weather threat.

Late Night/Early Sunday Morning... The overnight/early Sunday morning thunderstorms will likely be in the form of a MCS/QLCS with the main threat by the time they reach our area being heavy rain (localized flash flooding) and strong to severe wind gusts. Can not rule out a weak QLCS tornado within the line of stronger winds given backed low level winds (strong shear) but that is a small chance given fairly stable low level environment. Precipitable water values remain impressive (90-99th percentile) with readings over 2 inches possible. Therefore, we have that flood watch out for the possibility of flash flooding.

Sunday Afternoon... Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop early Sunday afternoon (1-2 PM) along the cold front around the KC area and then track southeast through the remainder of the afternoon. We are under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with the main threats being severe hail and winds. The surface winds veer Sunday afternoon along the cold front becoming more southwesterly, which will limit any tornado threat across our area. Heavy rain will continue to be a primary concern especially if we see training storms along and just ahead of the cold front.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

The big story will be the cooler temperatures across the area behind the cold front with highs only in the 70s on Monday and Tuesday. Even Wednesday through Friday should remain rather nice with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s until we start to warm up next weekend. The pattern also turns drier with no rain to maybe 20 percent chances through much of the week (Monday - Thursday). The next storms system could arrive around Friday/Saturday, but only 20-40 percent rain chances at this point in time with a lot of uncertainty that far out. Most of my time today has been focused on our more active short term period through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Not many changes with this TAF package. Most model guidance continues to bring the initial threat for thunderstorms into our TAF sites after 03Z and then increasing chances through the late evening and especially after midnight. Am also watching the convection currently over central Nebraska which is more vigorous than some of the models indicated. This convection could begin to dive more to the southeast and might lead to an earlier impact time (1-3 hours earlier) at our TAF sites. Right now that chance is still fairly low, but being monitored. Will continue to hold off on the mention of prevailing thunder until the late night hours. There will likely be a lull later Sunday morning after the storms move through and then we could see thunderstorm redevelopment Sunday afternoon around Kansas City and more likely to the south.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046- 053-054. KS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.