textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming up through the weekend into early next week, with highs in the 90s and heat indices in the 100s likely (greater than 60 percent chance) Saturday through at Tuesday.

- Slight chances for storms (mostly less than 30 percent) through Sunday (with best chances north of U.S. Highway 36). If storms occur, an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, with damaging winds the main threat.

- Chances for storms increase in the middle to latter portions of next week, with temperatures cooling down as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Mid/upper troughing remains across the Upper Midwest with a 45+ knot H5 jet extending from southern Saskatchewan into northwestern Iowa. This is pushing a cold front southeastward into southern Minnesota, NW Iowa, and NE Nebraska, and has helped initiate convection across northern Iowa this afternoon. Convection may continue to develop along the southwest flank of the current convection, and move south southeastward toward NE Missouri. Most CAMs dissipate storms before they reach the Missouri border, but some (namely the NAM Nest) want to bring a cluster of storms or even an MCS into our CWA across northern and NE Missouri after 10 pm tonight. SPC brings a slight risk for severe storms all the way to the Missouri/Iowa border, with the marginal risk extending southward to roughly the US Highway 36 corridor.

By tomorrow, a 598 dam H5 high sets up over the Four Corners, with increasing mid levels heights creeping in over our CWA from the west. High temperatures tomorrow should be a couple/few degrees warmer, with afternoon heat indices reaching or exceeding 100 degrees for areas long and south of the Interstate 70 corridor. While our PoPs for tomorrow afternoon at this time are below 10%, cannot completely rule out a small complex of showers/storms developing over eastern Nebraska and moving into NW Missouri. There will be a chance for an MCS to develop over Iowa late Saturday night as the southerly low level jet ramps up, with this potentially moving into northern Missouri. Both of these potential scenarios have prompted SPC to maintain a marginal risk for severe storms for most of the CWA for tomorrow and tomorrow night. The gradual warming trend is expected to continue into Sunday and into early next week, with afternoon highs forecast to reach the mid 90s and afternoon heat indices approaching the mid 100s (potentially prompting the issuance of a heat advisory, stay tuned for that!). Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather are probable for the middle to end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

There is some uncertainty within the TAF period, but more so during the latter half vs the first half. For the overnight, light and variable winds and clear skies likely to prevail over the sites. It is possible prone areas see some shallow fog, but this would primarily affect KSTJ among the TAF sites. Otherwise, moisture profiles tend not to be terribly conducive. By around 18z, winds increase and prevail out of the SE, to around 10 kts. At the same time, some guidance has suggested the potential for an MCS or decaying MCS to be moving SE out of Nebraska around the early to mid-afternoon time frame, however this is far from consistent among CAM guidance and tends to lack run to run consistency, so have left out any mentions at this point in time. This potential hinges on any initial development in/around the western Nebraska / South Dakota border area late in the overnight tonight, so keep an eye there if desired.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.