textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather settles in this week and through the weekend.

- Mostly dry through the weekend with rain chances returning early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Upper-level ridging over the western CONUS and surface high pressure over the eastern CONUS remains prominent. These features will encourage warmer temperatures today and into the weekend. Today, temperatures are expected to climb into the low 80s across much of the area. Even warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday, especially in southern portions of the forecast area and into central Missouri where some locations could see high temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. These temperatures would be well above normal--as much as 10-15 degF! The normal high temperature at Sedalia (KDMO) on October 7, for example, is 71 F...tomorrow's forecast high temperature currently sits at 85 F, a 14 degF difference.

A weak surface front will sink south Wednesday afternoon and evening. Areas generally north of the Missouri River can expect to see temperatures in the mid 70s on Thursday, and although this slightly closer to normal, it is still around 5 degF warmer. As for areas along and south of the Missouri River, temperatures are broadly forecast to top out in the upper 70s and lower 80s with isolated locations in our southern fringes reaching the mid 80s. PoPs Thursday night into Friday morning across northern Missouri were further reduced in this forecast cycle, now sitting below 5%. While a brief, isolated shower can't be totally ruled out, the low- level jet axis continues to favor areas in Nebraska and Iowa for shower development.

The subtle effects of the aforementioned boundary won't hang around for long as the ridge expands eastward, bringing a rapid return of southerly surface flow and warm air advection. This will result in building heat over the weekend, with temperatures ranging from the lower 80s in our north to the upper 80s in our southern tier of counties. A more unsettled pattern appears to lie in wait for us next week, most clearly in the form of a deepening upper trough along the West Coast. Another feature to watch will be the evolution of Invest 92L which now has a near 100% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. While substantial uncertainty remains, remnants of Invest 92L may propagate into portions of central and eastern Missouri as early as Sunday. As things stand in the current guidance suite, it does not appear that this would bring any meaningful opportunity of rain to our area. Rather, our next best chance of rain is more likely associated with the upper trough and its associated surface low, possibly bringing a cold front through the area early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions to persist with clear conditions and southwesterly winds generally 5-10 kts. A gradual clockwise wind shift is expected to begin Wednesday morning with winds becoming more westerly/northwesterly by 18Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.