textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/Storms linger through the afternoon. Additional chances (15-30%) return overnight, with greater probabilities over NW MO (50-70%).

- Showers/Storms possible again (30-50%) over southern/central MO on Saturday, before a brief lull in activity Sunday/Monday.

- Active period of weather begins anew by midweek, with temperatures climbing to the low/mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Through the morning and early afternoon, spotty showers have persisted across the forecast area. Models have been relatively poor at resolving today's precipitation pattern, with showers appearing to be forced by low-level divergence/weak synoptic- scale ascent within a moist vertical profile. Confidence is higher in showers gradually dissipating through the late afternoon as drier air is gradually introduced through the lower atmosphere with subsidence behind the exiting shortwave trough. Presently, a surface cyclone over South Dakota and its associated cold front are invigorating the development of showers/storms over central KS/southern NE, which will gradually progress eastward towards our area by the late evening/overnight. Forecast models have increased our amount of available instability, which has allowed for activity to persist farther into eastern KS/western MO overnight. However, these storms will still have to contend with drier air pushing in from the east, alongside poor effective shear for any organization and synoptic scale subsidence on the backside of the exiting shortwave trough. With these factors in mind, it's expected that any showers/storms that occur tonight are expected to remain shallow and non- severe, with strong wind, heavy rainfall, and lightning being the primary hazards. Overnight, residual moisture from showers/storms and progressively light/variable winds with high pressure building from the north will result in an opportunity for patchy fog development through tomorrow morning. However, with greater cloud cover expected overnight, radiational cooling will be inhibited and prevent a stout nighttime inversion from setting up. Thus the potential for dense fog does not appear to be high at this time. Additionally, forecast lows will remain relatively warm for the same reason mentioned previously.

Saturday, the weak cold front continues its progression off towards the southeast as its parent cyclone and upper level trough shift off towards the northeast. Additional opportunities for showers/storms will present themselves in central/southern MO as southerly flow pools instability out ahead of a subtle shortwave and associated surface low. Overall instability appears better on this day for any showers/storms, although effective shear still remains marginal. With relatively weak forcing and lower convective parameters, the severe potential for Saturday remains lower, with likelier hazards continuing to be heavy rainfall and lightning. This activity is expected to gradually push off towards the east with the progression of the shortwave trough, with lingering activity persisting in central/eastern MO overnight into Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

By Sunday, the forecast is expected to gradually clear out. Yet another shortwave embedded in the upper-level pattern is expected to invigorate more opportunities for precipitation going into the weekend, but these greater chances will remain further northwest along the primary shortwave. Amplified ridging will keep the area relatively dry going into Monday, before disturbances embedded in the upper-level flow increase precipitation chances going into midweek next week. These disturbances appear along a blocking pattern reminiscent of an omega block at the upper levels, which has become increasingly more resolved by deterministic models as the forecast grows closer. By the end of the forecast period, the persistence of this blocking pattern appears consistent between LREF ensemble members, but the degradation of energy within the blocked upper level trough over the western CONUS remains variable at this time. As it stands presently, multiple rounds of continuing precipitation appear likelier midweek through the end of the forecast period, with some uncertainty remaining in how the blocked flow will evolve late in the forecast period (and how that impacts continued precipitation chances by late next week). Temperatures are expected to continue warming through the period, with forecast highs in the low/mid 80s by next week under consistent southerly flow and subsequent WAA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Multiple rounds of showers expected through the 00z TAF period. First round will be around 10-12z in eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with more development possible in the afternoon. VFR conditions will give way to MVFR ceilings through the overnight hours, with IFR ceilings expected Saturday morning. IFR conditions expected to improve to MVFR by Saturday afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.