textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures to start the work week

- Highs trend warmer each day Tuesday through Friday

- Low chance (15-30%) for isolated showers Wednesday evening

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A somewhat complex pattern is in place to start off the week as a negatively tilted 500mb trough over the north-central Plains forces surface low pressure SE across the Red River valley toward the Gulf. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging extends from MO north through MN, with surface high pressure centered over eastern MO. This high pressure will keep us dry and will help lift highs into the low-mid 50s today, which is seasonable for mid-November. In fact, the forecast high today in Kansas City is 54F, which happens to be the normal high temperature for this date. Cloud cover will be limited this afternoon due to subsidence associated with the high pressure, and clear skies tonight will allow for efficient radiational cooling overnight. Most locations will fall into the low 30s; however, a few isolated sheltered areas may get down into the mid-upper 20s.

High pressure and southerly surface flow continue to dictate our sensible weather heading into the workweek, with highs Monday once again in the mid-upper 50s. Lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will be 5-8 degrees warmer than the previous night. By Tuesday morning, an upper-level shortwave will have come ashore on the West Coast. As this system begins to cross the Intermountain West on Tuesday afternoon, the pressure gradient will tighten across the Plains. This will drive sustained southerly surface winds up into the 10-15mph range, which will only further increase high temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. By Wednesday, most locations will hit 60F, with some spots in SW MO approaching 70F.

The aforementioned lead shortwave ejects into the northern Plains Wednesday evening, but questions remain concerning confidence in rainfall across the region. The strongest forcing with this system will be confined to the upper-Midwest, and southwesterly surface flow will allow for dry air to permeate the lower levels across the area. That being said, if lower levels are able to saturate, isolated to scattered showers will be possible Wednesday evening into the overnight for areas along and north of the MO River, where PoPs range from 15-30%. Where rain does fall, accumulations will be light, with the 75th percentile for accumulated precipitation between .05-.1".

By the end of the week, highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, which is well above normal for this time of year. Attention then turns to yet another trough that will impact the Midwest heading into the next weekend. Long-range guidance shows a strong sub-1000mb low and attendant cold front translating across the upper-midwest Friday evening through Saturday. This is our best chance for widespread rainfall in the next seven days, with PoPs of 40-60% in place for much of the region. We are still too far out at this point to resolve the finer details of the system, but instability and forcing currently look limited across our area, which would decrease thunderstorm potential. If this system ejects further south than currently forecast, then thunderstorm potential would increase. Will continue to monitor forecast trends as we get closer in time to the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1052 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions will last through the forecast period. Currently have a few upper-level cirrus across western MO, though visible satellite shows that this layer is beginning to dissipate. Winds are generally light and southeasterly, but tomorrow late- morning will turn south-southwesterly and increase to 7-10kt ahead of a tightening surface pressure gradient.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.