textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures into the weekend, then warmer to end weekend and to start next week

- Periodic showers/storm chances continue with limited opportunity for any stronger storms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Generally what you saw when you (presumably) went to bed last night, continued overnight and will continue through the day today. That is to say light rain, showers, and occasional lightning continue to stream into and across the area from the S/SE to the NW. This activity will generally continue throughout the day today thanks to the existing large scale Omega Block pattern set across CONUS. A shortwave rounding the base of the western CONUS cutoff low gradually pushes the responsible weak mid-level trough to the NE. Very gradually. Any light/measurable rainfall across NE portions of the CWA and state may not be realized until this evening, post- sunset, as its progression becomes hindered drier easterly winds from the Great Lakes surface high. Given all this, expect a dreary, moist day across much of the CWA proper with temperatures struggling to do much more than the mid-70s in areas that see the most persistent light rain and showers. Upper 70s to low 80s will be most achievable NE toward Kirksville and beyond given the dreadfully slow NE progression of PoPs.

Deterministic guidance hints at the Omega Block beginning to break down, but the large scale pattern looks to remain quite messy with little appreciable progression/change over the next handful of days. The western CONUS cutoff begins to fill as it moves inland, but pieces of shortwave energy continue to round its base and move into/across the Plains. This includes later today/tonight and again later Saturday into Sunday, the latter of which appears the most robust. In both cases, renewed shower/storm activity can be expected. Limited opportunity to destabilize today limits additional activity to more generic non-severe thunderstorm activity. The latter shortwave looks to push Colorado Front Range surface low out into the Plains and generate at least a moderately unstable environment over portions of Kansas and Nebraska. Better parameter space looks to remain displaced westward into central Kansas and parts of south-central Nebraska, but a more eastward progression of the surface low might begin to place western portions of the CWA at risk of a few potential strong/severe storms. For now, the depiction and expectation remains for weakening storms/MCS to move into/across the area Saturday evening and into the overnight.

Ending the weekend and into next week, the degradation/evolution of the block continues as the western CONUS trough/cutoff low drifts back northward along/near the Rockies. This places the local area within weak mid-upper level ridging regime. Shower/storm chances will be most dictated by this ridge axis location and the surface high dropping out of Canada and into the western Great Lakes. Suffice it to say, a lot of uncertainty here given the messy setup, with the result being prolonged periods of PoPs. Mixed in with this is the potential for temps to creep back around 90, including heat index values into the mid 90s Sunday and Monday. Of course, again given the messy setup and uncertainty in precipitation, take temperatures with a grain of salt as well. Deterministic guidance continues to point at more progressive pattern mid-late week but with additional chances for showers/storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A fairly messy TAF period anticipated across the sites. Scattered showers and isolated thunder continue to stream into/through the area. While confidence is high in periods of light rain to showers and occasional thunder, confidence is limited in specific timings. Have opted for a pair of TEMPO periods to highlight when showers and thunder respectively may be most likely. Ceilings too continue to gradually lower/deteriorate, with expectation for MVFR to settle into all sites this morning. Afternoon mixing should lift back to VFR, but only temporarily with re-lowering later this evening and into overnight. Throughout this time, winds fairly stead out of the SE up to around 10kts during daytime.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.