textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry with highs around 90 through Wednesday.

- Hotter air and storm chances return Wednesday night through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overall a fairly nice summer day today with a few chance for some isolated showers or storms in Missouri south of I-70. The entire airmass is uncapped and well mixed which favors air mass thunderstorms, but moisture is limited. North of I-70 saturation is less than it is farther south which will keep this area dry. South of I-70 we more moisture and have seen some isolated showers and storms this afternoon and this will continue into the evening ending once peak heating has passed. Weak winds through much of atmosphere will keep winds light even with the good mixing. This also means little shear and little chance for strong storms even where CI occurs. Overall similar setup tomorrow (maybe a little drier), with just a little warmer temperatures with more locations approaching 90.

Wednesday will see a continuation of the slow warming trend with widespread temperatures reaching into the lower 90s. The upper high over the southwest CONUS looks to move out allowing for a more unsettled pattern to move in Wednesday night and stay with us for to the end of the week. This shows multiple chances for shortwaves until a new ridge looks to build in next weekend. Rain chances look best to the north across Nebraska and Iowa Wednesday night into Thursday, but this differs among ensemble systems. The ENS brings more of the QPF south over Kansas and Missouri with the GEFS keeping it more to the north. Thursday night into Friday has more widespread agreement in QPF between the ensemble systems and their members. This is all reflected fairly well in NBM PoPs with lower PoPs focused north on Thursday morning and more widespread PoPs later Thursday into Friday. The CSU ML probabilities still show some low chances for severe weather across Kansas and Missouri Thursday and Friday. We look to have many of the ingredients for storms Thursday and Friday, but the shear profile still looks uncertain and until that is has more agreement it will be hard to have confidence in strong to severe storms.

A ridge looks to build into the central CONUS next weekend into next week. This will bring the active period to an end. In addition this could also be the return of another longer duration period of extreme heat. This is also reflected in the CPC day 8-14 hazard outlook where extreme heat is shown across Kansas and Missouri.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A very quiet TAF period remains anticipated across the area. Clear skies and light to calm winds currently prevail across the area and will continue through the overnight. Daytime winds may waffle between NE to SE, but remain on the light side around 5kts. Diurnal/daytime CU anticipated again Tuesday, but based around / above 5kft.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.