textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures expected to continue through the end of the week, likely through early next week.

- Heat advisory expanded to the entire area through Friday - Will likely need to be extended into or through the weekend - Temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 - Heat index values as high as 105

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

With an expansive upper ridge occupying the southeastern third of the country, well above normal temperatures continue to be the primary concern through the entire forecast. The core of this upper ridge will shift east over the next couple of days, which may lead to a degree or two cooler high temperatures. This is still 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. So overall, little, if any, relief to the heat is expected through the end of the week, and quite possibly through the start of next week as well. The heat advisory will likely need to be extended in time but there is some uncertainty about the locations. Given that is still day 5 of the forecast, will hold off for now and continue to message the heat through the DSS packet. Looking at ensemble guidance and 500mb clusters, the pattern is overall little changed as the upper ridge builds back into and expands across the middle of the country. By days 6 and 7 (Sunday and Monday), a few of the ensembles (generally 5-10%) are showing some easing of the ridging in the middle of the country with some negative differences appearing between those clusters relative to the ensemble mean. This is still very unlikely to occur but what's a prolonged heat wave without some hope that it will end... eventually.

Regarding precipitation chances, it's unlikely we'll see much of anything through the end of the week. By Sunday, there is at least a small chance in our northeastern zones as the ridge is in the process of expanding across the middle of the country again. That said, the prevailing theme remains hot with little, if any, precipitation through the entire forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Southerly winds will pick up Tuesday morning to around 10-13kts with gusts around 20-22 kts. Scattered cumulus will move up towards the MO River Tuesday mid-morning but should remain above 6000ft.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ001>008-011>017- 020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054. Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028>030- 037-043. Air Quality Alert from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MOZ028>030-037-043. KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060-102>105. Air Quality Alert until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057- 103>105. Air Quality Alert from 9 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ057- 103>105.