textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms expected this morning. The best chances for storms (50-70%) are north of the Missouri River and in the vicinity of the US-36 corridor. Heavy rainfall and downburst winds are the primary hazards.

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon (15-30% chance).

- Some relief from the heat is expected heading into the upcoming week, with additional rain and storm chances next arriving Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The latest upper-air observations showcase the weakening of the broad upper-level ridge that has dictated much of the region's weather as of late. As this ridge slides toward the Eastern Seaboard, it is projected to continue weakening with zonal upper- level flow being established in its wake. A vortmax near the Manitoba/Ontario border leads a cyclone between the Northwest Territories and Nunavut that is expected to deepen over the coming days.

Further south and closer to home, a stationary boundary lingers across northern Missouri, extending southwestward into south-central Kansas. A shortwave trough helped kick off convection in southwestern and west-central Kansas earlier Saturday evening. CAMs have struggled to determine whether or not additional initiation will occur in the vicinity of the boundary in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri during the overnight hours. It does appear that initiation would once again be largely driven by the low-level jet. However, in comparison to previous nights, less intensification of the low-level jet is expected, peaking at around 25 kts. Some updrafts have developed along the I-70 corridor in west-central Kansas, perhaps on the nose of a weak low-level jet in the vicinity of the stationary boundary. In addition to northern Missouri, this will be an area to watch heading into the overnight. MLCAPE across the region is roughly between 1000-1500 J/kg, but this is accompanied by only 20-25 kts of deep layer shear. As such, the severe threat for any overnight convection is mainly limited to downburst winds caused by collapsing updrafts. Heavy rainfall is another concern, with PWATs between 2.0" and 2.2". CAMs have hinted at training storms in the vicinity of the US-36 corridor...if this comes to fruition, flooding may become a concern.

The aforementioned shortwave which supported convection in southwestern and west-central Kansas is expected to move to the east- northeast overnight. There are questions about whether associated convection will be able to sustain itself this through the early morning hours. Previously, CAMs wanted to bring a mature MCS into northern Kansas and Missouri but are beginning to stray from this solution, likely due to the poor shear locally. Current thinking is that these areas may see some decaying remnants as opposed to a strong complex of storms.

Cooler temperatures return to the region Sunday and Monday behind a cold front progged to move through Sunday morning. The pace of this front will determine how warm or "cool" certain portions of the CWA will be. Confidence is high that maximum temperatures north of the Missouri River will be in the low/mid 80s...it is south from here that there is greater uncertainty. Current thinking is that the far southern fringes of the CWA could range anywhere from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. While certainly not as hot as it has been, these areas may need to wait until Monday to feel the same amount of relief when temperatures areawide are expected to sit in the 80s. Some isolated showers and non-severe storms are possible (~15-30% chance) during the afternoon hours.

Active weather makes a return Tuesday evening as a shortwave and rolls through the Plains. Though there is considerable uncertainty at this stage, a signal for ~1500 J/kg of MUCAPE and 25-30 kts of deep layer shear suggests some potential for organized convection ahead of the cold front. As the upper trough deepens this upcoming week, northwesterly flow looks to enshroud the Central Plains, potentially introducing additional rain and storm chances through mid/late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Light showers continue to persist across northern MO early this afternoon, but are expected to remain north of the terminals. There is a low-end chance for convection to develop around KSTJ, KMCI and KMKC this afternoon, but confidence in impacts at the terminals is quite low at this time, so have opted for a PROB30 group rather than a TEMPO. Northerly winds will remain light through the TAF period, which opens the door to some fog potential early tomorrow morning. Fog impacts appear to be most likely at KSTJ, but cannot rule out reduced visibilities at KMCI and KMKC around sunrise tomorrow.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.