textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions through the weekend with highs near to above normal for this time of year.

- Warmest Sunday/Monday, including possible heat index values into 90s for portions of the area.

- Periodic showers and storms continue through the weekend. Limited potential for strong to severe storms. - SPC Day 1 (Saturday) and Day 2 (Sunday) Marginal Risks for portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The existing Omega Block pattern across CONUS will continue to slowly evolve over the next few days, and may not fully break down/progress until mid work week. Given that, the forecast through the weekend and into early portions of the work week remains fairly messy with multiple shortwaves and weak mid-upper level flow limiting confidence in some details. So, with that said, let us try and take a look at some of the forecast and items to keep in mind.

Currently, a shortwave can be seen nicely on GOES water vapor imagery moving through central and eastern Kansas. Ahead of this shortwave, wings of warm air advection/isentropic lift have kicked of elevated non-severe thunderstorms. SPC mesoanalysis and point soundings suggest MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg across far western Missouri, decreasing as you move eastward across the state. Given the very weak deep shear environment and moist profile (little DCAPE), risk for near-severe to severe storms is very low. The strongest of updrafts may be able to briefly produce marginal hail or a precip loaded down draft, but unlikely. HRRR runs overnight have significantly backed off on the convection associated with the core shortwave passage (currently eastern Kansas convection), but it is of note that most recent runs appear to be under doing current convection. Whereas the 00z HRRR and surrounding hours appears to be handling current better. This would suggest clusters of thunderstorm activity carrying into the KC Metro by around 12z. Again, non-severe in nature by may be a wet and noisy start to Saturday.

Through the day, scattered non-severe storms may continue, namely over eastern areas, but attention should actually turn back westward as another (stronger) shortwave rounds the base of the trough. This too will induce deeper Lee Cyclogenesis over the Front Range, helping produce a highly unstable airmass from south-central Nebraska through Kansas and into Oklahoma. While the immediate area is not at risk of initial convection, hi-res guidance has shown various depictions of this activity congealing and drifting eastward into the area by Saturday evening and overnight. The severe risk will remain quite limited with unsupportive shear profiles and less instability. But with PWats >1.75 inches and weak mean winds (potentially slow storm motions), some flooding/water issues may be possible. This is also bolstered to a degree with extended hi-res runs (HRRR/RRFS/NAMnest) depicting areas of >2-4 inches of QPF. Unfortunately, no real consistency in area depicted at this time. Suffice it to say it is something to casually keep an eye on. SPC New Day 1 does have western areas in a Marginal Risk, which will mainly be dependent on evolution of Kansas convection.

Sunday remains a bit interesting, including the potential for additional storms. The environment will be more supportive of strong/severe storm potential with moderate to strong instability and increasing/supportive deep layer shear, but synoptic models continue to depict some weak mid-level height rises (general subsidence) and capping around the 750mb. Previous runs have remained largely convection free within QPF depictions, but do note that recent 00z runs of the Euro/NAM/Canadian now suggest convective initiation after 00z within their QPF output, possibly latching onto a subtle shortwave or modest dryline just to the NW of the area. Otherwise may hinge also on cloud cover and/or any remnant boundaries. Certainly conditional at this point in time. SPC currently has a Day 2 Marginal Risk over the area and a Slight Risk just NW into Nebraska. Heat may be of note by this point as well, with increasing confidence in temperatures climbing toward the upper 80s for western and southern areas of the CWA. Coupled with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat index values may pus the mid-upper 90s. This is most notable for areas near and south of the Missouri River.

Into the work week, mid-upper level ridging tends to prevail across central to southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi and Missouri Valley areas. Drier easterly winds remain forecast by Tuesday and into the week, pushing bulk of shower/storm potential westward into Kansas. Temperature conditions Monday potentially very similar to Sunday, with highs into the mid-upper 80s and heat index values into the 90s for areas primarily near and south of the Missouri River. After Monday, relief in humidity as easterly winds advect in lower dew points.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A messy TAF period for the sites, especially the early and latter portions of. Currently, waves of showers/storms are lifting E/NE through the area. An initial wave has already moved through the sites, with a second wave currently on their doorstep. Given the scattered nature, have opted for TEMPO -TSRA vs prevailing, but may be splitting hairs in that regard. Some lingering additional scattered storms behind this second line may affect all TAF sites, but have tried to capture that too with the aforementioned TEMPO. Quieter/dry period through much of the daytime before expectation for convection to move out of Kansas tonight. Greatest confidence is north of the KC Metro sites, yielding PROB30 for the trio in the metro and TEMPO for KSTJ. During periods of SHRA/TSRA ceilings may drop into MVFR even IFR.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.