textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather with typical July heat and humidity levels are expected today through early next week.

- Temperatures will heat up towards the middle to latter half of next week, with a 65-95% chance of high temperatures in the 90s Wednesday through Friday.

- Small daily rain chances (10-15%) return to the forecast Tuesday for areas south of I-70 and east of I-49.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

After an active period of weather, dry and seasonably warm temperatures are expected today through Tuesday. At the synoptic level, the pesky upper low that has brought the recent daily thunderstorm chances will translate south and east of the region. In its place, H5 ridging will increase to the west, as an omega block become entrenched across the CONUS. The center of the ridge will be displaced north and west of the forecast area, resulting in H5 and H8 temperatures pretty close to average values for the middle of July.

By Tuesday and Wednesday, the upper low will be suppressed by the ridge all the way to the Gulf Coast. This will allow some moisture to advect north into the Lower MO River Valley, potentially kicking off isolated showers or storms (10-15% chance) during the heat of the day. Right now, this activity looks to be confined to areas south of I-70 and east of I-49, with the slightly greater chances being in the far southeast parts of the forecast area.

As the stronger H5 ridging builds south and east into the region by the latter half of next week, temperatures will heat up. Latest LREF mean shows H5 and H8 temperatures warming to the 70-90th percentiles during this time. This will yield high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s by Thursday and Friday. Humidity values will be close to average, so heat index values look to stay in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Locally dense patchy fog is impacting IXD and STJ early this morning, while lingering light fog and FEW-SCT low cloud decks are impacting MCI and MKC. With increasing dry N-NE surface flow, expecting this activity to dissipate by 13-14z. Afterwards, mostly clear skies and light N to NE winds are expected through this evening, then becoming E to NE overnight into Sunday morning. Predominant speeds will be around 4-7 kts. Will need to watch for more fog tonight, but currently think impactful restrictions will develop south of the terminals.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.