textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Heat is expected to build into the region through the weekend and continue into early next week. A heat advisory is in effect Saturday along and south of I-70, and region-wide Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Shortwave across west central MO as of 18Z is expected to work east this afternoon and evening allowing upper level ridge across the southwestern US to expand north and east. Upper level subsidence behind departing shortwave should lead to a reduction in storm potential late this afternoon into this evening, but CAMs have offered a variety of solutions of isolated shower/storm activity, largely focused south of I-70 through the evening hours. Moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft keep instability limited, but partial clearing across eastern KS into west central Missouri may allow for a late afternoon/evening pop up storm. Weak shear should keep anything that develops subsevere.

Weak low level jet is expected build heat and humidity northward tonight strengthening capping inversion across the region and temperatures remaining in the 70s overnight. Heat is expected to build further on Saturday, and have issued a heat advisory along and south of I-70 Saturday. Heat is expected to build further Sunday into Monday, and have issued a heat advisory area wide through Monday evening. Models suggest there may be a few ridge ridging short waves, one that may result in an MCS Sunday night into Monday morning across the Upper Midwest. Through collaboration, have sided with the idea that there will be limiting lingering impacts across the region on Monday.

A cold front may try to build south across the region Monday night into Tuesday. South of the front, there is the potential for the need for additional heat headlines, but the timing of the front is unclear at this point.

Longwave pattern remains late into the week with upper ridge across the western CONUS, with shortwaves continuing along the northern periphery of the ridge. With little agreement on timing of the waves, left the model blend as is with above normal temperatures and periodic low chances of precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Rain showers are expected to push east this afternoon, with IFR ceilings improving into the MVFR range. Should see additional improvement in ceilings this evening, with VFR conditions returning Saturday morning from SW to NE.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-030>033. Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Monday for MOZ028- 029-037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ025- 102. Heat Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Monday for KSZ057- 060-103>105.