textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for morning thunderstorms across northern Missouri. If the storms are able to develop, strong storms would be capable of producing damaging winds and possibly hail.

- Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue late this week into the weekend. An excessive heat warning is in effect along and south of the Missouri River, with a heat advisory highway 36 and south. The heat advisory is in effect through Thursday evening and the Excessive Heat Warning runs through Friday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

MCS across north central Nebraska as of 08Z is expected to build east with an ever so slight south drift as the 850-300 mb mean wind is largely west to east. Atmosphere ahead of this complex is primed with nearly 4000 J/kg of MU CAPE and 35 -45 knots of effective shear. The focus of the MCS is largely expected to remain north across Iowa; however, storms developing along the outflow could build into northern Missouri this morning. Forecast soundings across northern Missouri show a dry sub cloud layer leading to 1500- 1700 J/kg of downdraft CAPE suggesting damaging wind potential with anything that is able to develop this far south.

Behind the departing MCS, expect atmosphere to recover with southwest flow feeding into the region from Texas. With that said, some hi-res CAMs suggest that outflow may linger across the region potentially leading to cooler high temperatures than in the forecast if this becomes reality. For now, have forecast highs returning into the 90s with dew points in the 70s leading to heat indices of 105- 110 F across much the area. At this point, heat headlines look reasonable.

Low pressure across western KS is expected to promote easterly winds across Nebraska. The upslope along with short wave ejecting from the desert southwest is expected to lead to lat afternoon thunderstorm development across the western High Plains. Models are offering a variety of solutions on how these storms evolve, but northern Missouri could get clipped by any complex that develops. The severity would be dependent on how well the atmosphere is able to recover throughout the day today. The convection may also push stationary boundary across central Iowa southward, potentially as far as northern Missouri.

Low level jet is expected to develop again from eastern Texas to western/ central Missouri. While the dry air just above the surface would limit convective potential, the low level jet will keep the atmosphere quasi-mixed keeping overnight lows mild once again. This will set the stage for another mild day Thursday into Friday south of the boundary as the long standing low pressure across the western High Plains slowly drifts north. As the low builds north, it is expected to strengthen, and the associated cold front could be the focus of showers and thunderstorms with the potential for more seasonal temperatures returning to the region early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Generally VFR thru the period with low potential for MVFR CIGs across northern MO early Thursday morning. Winds KMKC and northward expected to fluctuate late afternoon/early evening...opted for few hours of VRB as winds move from SW to N to E before settling back out of the SSE later tonight.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ011>017-020>025. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-057-060- 103>105. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ102.