textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated - Scattered showers and storms this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually decreasing overnight. Strongest storms may produce small hail.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% near Missouri River), overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread). - Temperatures remain above normal for the next week, but trend back closer to normal with multiple chances for precipitation Friday - Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Low pressure over central Manitoba is expected to deepen as system continues to push east towards the Great Lakes. Cold front associated with this system has pushed into eastern South Dakota into central Nebraska by 18Z. Expect this boundary to continue to work south and east, approaching northwest Missouri early this evening. Increasing moisture in the vicinity of 850 mb may be sufficient for a few showers and storms to develop along the boundary this evening. Instability is fairly limited (generally 500- 1000 J/KG), but increasing speed shear aloft may lead to stronger updrafts capable of producing small hail. Low level convergence along the front weakens through the evening as flow turns more west to east south of the boundary, which should lead to convection becoming increasingly sparse through the overnight.

Orphaned boundary lingers across the forecast area tomorrow. North of the boundary, expect northeast winds while southerly flow remains south of the boundary. Cooler airmass to the north will keep temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s, while south of the boundary temperatures are expected to approach 80 F. There could be enough convergence along the front to potentially lead to an isolated late day shower/storm along the boundary, but lapse rates are near moist adiabatic aloft limiting any severe potential.

Leading shortwave building east across Kansas tomorrow could lead to more scattered shower activity developing across northwestern Missouri. A much larger and broad wave lifts north from Texas into the Central Plains later on Friday leading to more widespread shower/thunderstorm activity Friday night into Saturday. Halloween looks to be fairly gloomy and cooler with scattered showers. Precipitable water values 1.1-1.2" (near daily max) should lead to fairly efficient rain processes.

A series of phased waves are expected to build eastward late this weekend potentially developing into a cutoff low across the central US through at least the firs half of next week. This could lead to cooler more seasonal temperatures and potentially wet conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A few spotty showers across north central Missouri will continue to lift northeast clearing the Iowa/Missouri border by 19Z. Thereafter, will need to keep an eye on a weakening boundary approaching the region from the north. Expect a wind shift from the northeast north of the boundary. Spotty showers are possible along the boundary through the evening hours, potentially impacting the KSTJ terminal.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.