textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures Climb Above Normal Through End of Week

- Windy Thursday into Friday

- Dry Forecast Next 5-6 Days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Short-wave trough axis is moving through the area this afternoon which has brought cloud cover this afternoon. Strong surface anticyclone is moving southward from the western Great Lakes Region. Amplifying ridge axis will help to reinforce a strong jet streak over the Rockies, with stronger dCVA into the TX/OK Panhandle region allowing a stronger cyclone to develop. Surface pressure falls continue to expand eastward into the portions of the Mississippi River Valley. The surface anticyclone will continue to move southward overnight. Most of the kinematic features present across the CONUS will be far removed from our area. Going into Wednesday, northerly flow will keep temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for one more day. Some lift will be present over the Central Plains tied to the stronger jet stream and H5 height gradient that is downstream from the amplified ridge axis over the west coast. Most of the ensemble probabilities keep this west of the forecast area, and therefore will keep the forecast dry here, while central Kansas may see precipitation activity. A few CAM runs are depicting some light precipitation in far northwest Missouri but very low QPF.

Through the remainder of the week, the amplified ridge axis will gradually move west, and force a thermal ridge into the eastern Plains and lower Missouri River Valley. WAA at 850mb ramps up as stronger adiabatic compression warming off the Rockies occurs and flows into the Plains. Along with stronger mixing, this will push temperatures above normal through the remainder of the week, with several locations likely to see 50F at some point. With the lack of forcing, precipitation chances remain less than 10 percent through most of the weekend. Strong mixing and stronger pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds late Thursday and through much of Friday. The above normal temperatures may continue into early next week, though there still is larger spread amongst ensemble members. This is still a battle between the closed-low system over Hudson Bay attempting to force lower H5 heights southward, against the rises from the approaching ridge axis. Deterministic solutions through the start of the next work week suggest the ridge axis will be more dominant, which would lead to a warmer outcome. Ensemble suites are painting increasing probabilities by the middle of next week for precipitation, with a series of short-wave that will eventually break down the ridge regime.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Generally MVFR CIGs are expected through the period. Winds become light remaining out of the NW through the period. CIGs look to lift after sunrise (with some SCT low clouds persisting) before sinking back to high MVFR during the afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.