textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less through 9AM for most of the forecast area except west central Missouri, most of the KC Metro, and east central Kansas.

- Well above normal conditions expected one last day today.

- Chance (30-80%) for scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday. No severe weather anticipated. Rainfall amounts will generally be under a half an inch.

- Brief snow showers or even sleet may occur Sunday afternoon/evening (mainly north of HWY-36) after a strong cold front moves through the area, but no impactful accumulations are expected.

- Windy conditions (30-40 mph wind gusts) are expected Sunday into Sunday night. Wind chills on Sunday night and Monday will range from 5 above zero to ten below zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Early this morning, a warm front is evident just south and west of the forecast area. With the CWA north of this front, fog has been advecting into much of the area. Consequently, a dense fog advisory is in effect for all but extreme west central Missouri and east central Kansas thru 15Z for areas of fog reducing visibility to a 1/4 mile or less. This warm front will lift northeast thru the CWA today again allowing temperatures to rise well above normal. Highs will range from the upper 50s across the northeastern CWA where morning fog may persist and the warm front will be later to pass to the mid 60s to lower 70s along and south of the Missouri River. Tonight a mid-level trough will move into the Plains forcing a cold front towards the area. Showers will develop out ahead of this front with a few thunderstorms also possible as elevated instability on the order of 300-500J/Kg of CAPE will be available. The cold front will move through the area on Sunday packing some very strong CAA behind the front with NW winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. This will usher in much colder conditions. Highs Sunday will occur in the morning in the 50s and 60s but temperatures by late afternoon will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Showers will continue into Sunday associated with he cold front and there may be a brief transition over to snow as the system exits however, accumulations of a dusting across northern Missouri are the most that is forecast. Strong CAA is expected to continue into Sunday night allowing temperatures to fall into the teens with wind chill values ranging from 5 above zero to ten below zero. Cold air advection will weaken on Monday as surface high pressure approaches the area from the northern/central Plains. However, a cold day is expected Monday with highs in the 20s.

The extended forecast looks dry with generally seasonable temperatures. Surface high pressure will quickly traverse the area Monday night with radiational cooling allowing lows to again drop back into the low to mid teens. However, by Tuesday, the surface ridge will shift south of the area allowing modest WAA to develop returning highs to near seasonal normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Wednesday, weak surface high pressure will be in control under weakening northwest flow aloft. This will aid in high rising into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Wednesday night a quick moving trough will move through the Great Lakes. This will force a dry cold frontal passage through the CWA dropping highs back into the mid 20s (north) to upper 30s (south) for Thursday. Surface high pressure will build back into the area Thursday night into Friday holding highs generally in the 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

LIFR cig/vis is expected at the TAF sites, except IXD, thru 15Z-16Z with low stratus and fog restricting vis to 1/2SM-2SM. Fog is expected to burn off improve by 15Z-16Z with VFR conds prevailing thru the remainder of the TAF pd with bkn-ovc high clouds expected thru 02Z-04Z when a ovc deck btn 5-8kft is fcst. Winds to begin the TAF pd will be out of the E-SE btn 5-10kts but will shift to the south aft 16Z-18Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008- 011>017-020>025-029>033-038>040-044>046. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ102.