textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather on Saturday. All severe hazards are possible, including heavy rainfall.

* Quiet weather early next week, then chances for storms return midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Remnant storms from this morning continue to work their way across northern MO. These storms may still be capable of producing severe weather, however, they should continue to weaken with eastward extent.

A 500-hPa analysis shows zonal flow across the central CONUS with a closed low in northern Ontario. At the surface, a cold front extends through northwestern IA and eastern NE. Southerly flow has allowed a relatively soupy airmass to return to the area with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s and dew points in the low 70s. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-80s this afternoon, which, along with the plentiful moisture, will allow MLCAPE values to soar to around 2000-3000 J/kg. Several outflow boundaries are present near or in northwestern MO and northeastern KS. The most notable of these is situated just south of St. Joseph. The latest model guidance has seemed to peg this area as the most likely location for convective initiation this afternoon with storms initially taking a discrete mode. Given deep layer shear values of 40+ kts, this supports an initially supercellular storm mode with the primary hazards of large hail and damaging winds. LCLs appear unfavorable to tornado development, but certainly cannot rule it out. As the cold front drops south into northern MO late this afternoon and intersects these storms, convection is expected to congeal into a more linear storm mode, which will pose a main threat of damaging winds. As the evening progresses, the environment will become more favorable for brief spin up tornadoes along the line as the low-level shear increases with the LLJ. Storms should be mostly out of the area by the time this happens, but it is worth keeping an eye on. This thinking aligns with the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, which has all of western MO in an Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) Risk with damaging winds and large hail being the primary concerns.

Timing wise, the most favorable timeframe for initial CI looks to be around 3-4 PM CDT. As of 1 PM, attempts at CI are being noted on satellite with showers forming along the aforementioned outflow boundary. A weak cap is currently in place around 900-hPa, which will need to be eroded before storms can really take off. The front is expected to move into northern MO around 5-6 PM CDT with a linear storm mode taking over by 7 PM CDT. Storms should exit the southern portion of the area by 1 AM CDT. However, a lot of uncertainty remains in this forecast. The CAMs have not handled morning convection well today and thus brings into question their output for this afternoon and evening. But given the environment and current convective evolutions, the picture painted above seems like the most likely at this point.

The other important factor with the convection this afternoon/evening will be the potential for flooding. Storms should be fairly progressive, but given the amount of precipitation that has fallen across the area over the past week or so, it will not take a whole lot of additional precipitation for flash flooding to occur. The current forecast calls for 1-2" of new precipitation along and south of the Missouri River with storms this afternoon/evening. Thus a flood watch remain in effect for this area through 12Z on Sunday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Temperatures are expected to lower behind the cold front, with highs in the low/mid 70s. The upper-level trough is expected to cycle around the Hudson Bay, and generally place much of the forecast area under zonal flow on Monday before several shortwave disturbances will traverse the upper-level flow and place the forecast area under multiple rounds for precipitation. The first of these rounds appears Tuesday afternoon/evening, with a weak boundary invigorating scattered chances (15-30%) for precipitation. By Wednesday afternoon, another upper-level trough and associated surface low will increase chances (40-60%) of precipitation through the evening and overnight along another boundary. Temperatures this day will climb ahead of strong surface-based southerly flow, with forecast highs reaching the mid/high 80s. The boundary may slow/stall through Thursday, prompting precipitation chances to continue mostly along/south of the I-70 corridor. By the end of the forecast period, brief amplified ridging to the west keeps remaining PoPs lower.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A line of TSRA will continue to develop and push to the southeast through around 6z this evening. TSRA will bring very heavy rain, hail to 2 inches, and a risk of winds in excess of 50kts. TSRA will be near KSTJ around 1z, KMCI around 2z, KMKC between 2 and 3z, and IXD between 3 and 5z. After, skies will gradually clear, but some IFR to MVFR ceilings will linger through 12z at KIXD where some mist is possible as well. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail area wide after 12z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ028-029-037-038- 043>045-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ057-060-103>105.