textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along a cold front moving southeastward through the region. The best chances for storms are south of a line from Kansas City to Kirksville. Large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all potential hazards from these storms.

- Heat indices approaching/exceeding 100 degrees are forecast this afternoon, especially south of I-70.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast again across west- central and central Missouri on Thursday. Severe weather is not expected.

- A strong storm system will move through the region this weekend, bringing another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Current:

A strong low level jet is transitioning east this afternoon with our gusty winds slowly decreasing. That being said, we are still seeing wind gusts of 30-40 mph. This jet has also supplied the region with ample amount of heat and moisture. Across the area we have temperatures in the 90s with dew points in the 70s. This has led to some areas seeing heat indicies in the triple digits.

This afternoon:

The focus of the afternoon will be our severe weather threat. With the latest update from SPC we have an enhanced risk (level 3/5) for our central and eastern counties with the metro and northwest MO lowering to slight (2/5) and marginal (1/5). Convection is expected to initiate off of a cold front moving across the region. As of 1 PM the current surface observations would indicated that the boundary is draped through Holt and up through Worth. Areas northwest of this boundary are not expected to receive showers and storms. Ahead of this boundary we can expect a few supercells to develop initially as mean wind flow runs orthogonal to the boundary. As mentioned previously we have a very warm and moist air mass out ahead of this boundary that can be characterized as high instability (MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg) and strongly sheared (bulk shear greater than 45 kts. Within this environment supercells will be capable of producing large hail (>2") and damaging winds (>75 mph). Veering winds ahead of the boundary may also produce some streamwise vorticity for a few tornadoes to develop. Later into the evening the cold pools are expected to congeal with storm mode switching to more linear. Threats will shift to damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Best timing for severe storms still looks to be this afternoon with CAMs showing a consistent signal for around 3-4PM. The cold front will then sag south through the evening exiting the region after 8PM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Thursday/Friday:

The cold front will stall out over the Ozarks leading to a largely quiet and pleasant day across most the region. Lingering mid level moisture may interact with a weak impulse aloft to produce some light rain and sprinkles through the day. The additional cloud cover paired with the passage of the front the previous day will keep the area cooler with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Surface high pressure will be shifting east through the day allowing for southerly return flow. Temperatures will warm back into the mid 80s. Rain and a few storm chances (40-50%) will return overnight, but the better chances for more widespread impacts arrive this weekend.

Weekend:

Cross barrier flow sets up over the Central Rockies leading to lee cyclogenesis on Saturday. This low deepens over eastern CO through the day with surface high pressure being shunted off to the east. This set up will allow for a strong gulf connection to develop surging moisture back into the Midwest. Our PWATs increase to 2" which would put us over the 99th percentile of climatology. The bountiful moisture will lead to heavy rain and flooding concerns through the weekend and into Monday morning. NBM is carrying PoPs of 20-40% through Saturday with chances increasing to 50-80% overnight as the surface low encroaches from the west. The systems warm front is expected to pivot in from the west in the afternoon and evening hours increasing instability. Pending placement of a shortwave crossing the midwest we would see a boost in our bulk shear values sending increasing severe potential.

Perhaps the bigger concern for the weekend will be the heavy rainfall potential. WPC has the region highlighted in a slight risk for excessive rainfall (2/3). Taking a stroll through the ensemble plumes of both the GEFS and the Euro shows a high amount of spread with the heaviest rainfall period targeted to be Sunday. The Euro still favors heavier rain across IA and northern MO. The deterministic GFS seems to be the outlier amongst even the GEFS family showing upwards of 4". The rest of the members have better clustering around the 1" mark. Given our antecedent conditions we could see many of our rivers reach Minor to Moderate flood stage by Monday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Thunderstorms will continue to exit west central Missouri this evening, with the cold front exiting the area to the south after sunset. VFR conditions are then expected to prevail area wide through tomorrow afternoon. Widely scattered showers are possible through early tomorrow afternoon, though should provide little impact outside of brief locally low-end VFR visibilities.

Winds remain gusty from the northwest through sunset, before weakening overnight. Northwest winds then prevail through tomorrow afternoon, at 5 to 10kts.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.