textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm temperatures are expected across the region through Saturday, with record highs in jeopardy later this week. Dry conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend.

- Fog, locally dense, is expected to develop this morning (mainly for areas near/south of I-70) and again tonight (best chances south and west of KC).

- A strong cold front will move through the area this weekend, bringing sharply colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance for wind gusts exceeding 30 mph and a 10 to 30 percent chance for wind gusts exceeding 45 mph on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Despite the rather stagnant pattern across the central U.S. the past few days, this has been a rather fascinating period in terms of forecast predictability. With broad ridging in much of the CONUS expected to persist through the week, there are still some rather challenging aspects to the forecast, owing in large part to small-scale perturbations ejecting from a deep trough near/off the Pacific Coast and very poor run-to-run model continuity exhibited with these perturbations for the past 48-72 hours. The main forecast challenges this morning appear to be bouts of fog and/or low stratus through Thursday, decreasing confidence in high temperatures through the weekend, and a strong system affecting the area during the weekend.

The ridge will be building in the central U.S. in earnest today, and I expect temperatures to warm nicely in this pattern, despite potential for some persistent fog this morning in portions of the area. Another issue preventing stronger warming will be a lack of stronger surface winds today, which will not only act to keep any fog that develops in place for longer this morning, but it will reduce effective mixing and potential warm advection. Any trend upward in warmth today will likely be in large part due to insolation (which should be more abundant than yesterday). Despite several limiting factors, I raised temperatures a little bit above consensus today owing to the pronounced amplification of upstream ridging and the increased sunshine expected. Highs should be in the mid to upper 50s in north-central/northeast Missouri to the upper 60s south of KC.

There is fog potential once again tonight as a weak perturbation approaches the area from the west, and return flow begins to creep into the region, supplying warm/moist advection. Winds will still be fairly light, but given the increased lift just above the surface, this may play out as more of a low-stratus scenario than a fog scenario. Nevertheless, HREF probabilities for visibilities less than a half mile approach 50% again to the south and west of KC. Definitely cannot rule out fog, but low clouds are a safe bet. Lows tonight are expected to be a few degrees above average highs for this time of year.

It only gets warmer on Wednesday and Thursday, but model trends have raised some concerns about just how high temperatures will go for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. With multiple perturbations moving through the area in this period, low-level lift via warm advection will provide widespread cloudiness for large chunks of these two days. As discussed a couple of days ago, these perturbations have also trended farther south in their track, which would act to dampen the large-scale ridging in the central U.S. Although the pattern obviously favors anomalously warm temperatures, even with persistent cloud cover, the probability for 70+ degree highs has sharply decreased over the last 24 hours near/north of I-70 (and is basically near-zero percent north of U.S. Highway 36). Current highs are in the mid 60s for the KC area this period, which would be well below the record on Dec 24 and near the record on Dec 25. This will all be dependent on cloud cover, and with the trend being more pessimistic, confidence has lowered with record temperatures being reached.

Another interesting trend is the continued warmth on Friday and Saturday. After about four days of windshield wiper action in model land, model consensus is trending toward warmer for this period. This occurs because the Thursday perturbation tracks east quickly on Friday and strengthens quickly, leading to a period of transient amplified ridging in the central U.S. As a result, highs on Friday and Saturday are in the 60s. And with large-scale descent on Friday, cloud cover may be considerably less prevalent than on Thursday. So Friday could end up being the warmest day of the period now, with record highs on this day in jeopardy!

The final trend of note in the forecast period is the very strong system developing in the northern-stream flow in southern Canada, with a trough digging rapidly southeastward Saturday afternoon/evening into the northern Plains. The attendant cold front will likely blast through the area late in the day into Saturday night, with a very strong pressure gradient developing as an intense polar high shifts southeastward upstream of the system. This suggests a windy period is in store for the area Saturday night and Sunday, and I suspect our forecast winds will increase markedly as the event draws nearer (and confidence increases). This will be a very rude awakening temperature-wise, with a 30+ degree drop in highs possible from Saturday to Sunday. With such a strong surface high developing, it will take a couple of days for the region to recover, with much cooler conditions lasting through at least early next week. Models are beginning to hint at a very similar type of system affecting the area around New Year's Day as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Fog is moving in from the south this morning and is on the doorstep of IXD currently, where occasional dense fog may occur (50% chance). Lower visibilities may reach MKC and MCI (MVFR/IFR), but the densest fog is expected to stay mainly to the south of these terminals. STJ will likely experience dense fog for at least a couple of hours this morning as well (90% chance). Improvement is expected after 16z, with VFR prevailing this afternoon and evening. However, restrictions are anticipated after overnight as either or both a low stratus deck and fog develop and move in from the southwest again. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming northeast around 5 to 10 kt this afternoon, veering to an easterly direction tonight. Confidence is average for the evolution of fog this morning, and above average for restrictions returning late tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 24: KMCI: 72/2021 KSTJ: 69/2021

December 25: KMCI: 67/1922 KSTJ: 65/2019

December 26: KMCI: 66/2008 KSTJ: 65/2008

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 25: KMCI: 53/1936 KSTJ: 51/1936

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MOZ043-053- 054. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ057-060.