textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm and breezy day expected today.

- Additional storms are expected tonight, some of which could produce large hail and straight line winds.

- Cooler, showery weather expected Tuesday - Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Weak band of shower has developed along the highway 36 corridor north of a weak surface boundary that stalled out in the I-70 corridor. These showers are in response to a series of short waves dropping southeast from central into southeast Nebraska. These disturbances have very limited amounts of instability to work with (<100 J/kg of elevated CAPE), but showers are stronger than one would expect with limited instability due to strong shear in the mid- levels of the atmosphere. Showers are expected to shift east in the pre dawn hours today as short waves continue to work east.

With relatively dry atmosphere across the region today, skies are expected to be relatively clear through much of the day allowing temperatures to warm quickly into the upper 70s and lower 80s. With the heating today, will see gusty southwest winds develop once again as momentum is transferred from aloft. VAD winds show 50+ knots within the lowest few thousand feet of the troposphere, and could see gusts approach 35-40 mph for a few hours this morning as surface mixing grows into the low level jet before the layer fully moderates. Mid level clouds are expected to be more prevalent across central Missouri mainly south of highway 50, and there may be a few late day cumulus that develop as deeper near surface moisture starts to arrive from the south. Currently, surface dew points in the 40s extend as far south as north Texas, so it will take the better part of today before we see substantial increases in moisture across the region. 00Z sounding from KTOP shows precipitable water is around 0.75" (fairly seasonal for this time of year), but moisture is expected to increase closer to 1" by late today (~75 percentile).

Cold front across the Dakotas this morning is expected to work south today and become the focus for thunderstorm development this evening. ML CAPE ahead of the front is expected to increase to 2000- 2500 J/kg, with the NAM suggesting locations between I-70 and highway 36 may approach values closer to 3000 J/kg. With bulk sear values of 30-35 knots, there is ample shear to allow storms to organize and become severe. Capping inversion at 800-700 mb is expected to hold strong throughout much of the day, but as additional short waves move across the region within the zonal flow aloft and low level jet increases the low level moisture, expect storms to develop in the 00-03Z time frame. Expect some of the stronger storms to be capable of large hail or damaging winds, with hail being the primary threat upon initiation. Expect storms over time to organize into clusters and bowing segments later in the evening taking on more of a wind than hail threat.

Instability dwindles early on Tuesday morning as surface cold front is expected to continue to work south; however, jet dynamics improve as additional shortwaves continue to move across the area. As such, expect the threat for showers to continue across the region on Tuesday and Wednesday keeping temperatures unseasonably cool for this time of year.

Warmer conditions return late week, but models still continue to suggest the potential of shortwaves dropping through the region leading to periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. The first of these appears to be focused on Friday afternoon, though low level moisture appears to be limited. A second short wave drops through the region on Saturday as a surface cold front builds south, potentially leading to more widespread thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Currently seeing clouds clearing out across all terminals, with cloud cover persisting further south. Expecting gusts to fall off around sunset at terminals, with winds shifting towards the north through the night as a cold front passes beginning at 1z at northernmost terminals and passing through all terminals around 5-6z. Included a TEMPO group for convective activity that is expected to fire up along this frontal boundary, with a PROB30 further north at KSTJ for less confidence in -TSRA potential. After the passage of TSRA, expecting -SHRA behind the cold front. Less confidence in the persistence of -SHRA going into the morning and afternoon, so have left out a PROB30 for this issuance.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.