textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

* Cold week ahead with sub-freezing temperatures throughout the week.

* A few late week disturbances may bring very light chances of snow to the region, but otherwise, dry conditions are expected to prevail.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Fairly stagnant upper level pattern throughout the upcoming week with the Hudson Bay trough gradually shifting south throughout the week and western US ridging cycling throughout the week keeping the central US in northerly flow resulting in below normal temperatures. Broad surface high pressure across the central US this morning leading to nearly ideal radiative conditions. As a result, have seen temperatures fall below zero F in most locations with the coldest in the Missouri Valley at the STJ airport. With these frigid conditions, a slight winds will create wind chills around -20 F and will keep the cold weather advisory this morning as is. For today, expect to see a nice recovery in temperatures as near surface flow turns westerly as the ridge across the central US shifts south. 925 hpa temperatures warm nearly 7 C throughout the day as westerly flow increases to near 40 knots by late day. This increased flow just above the surface will keep the atmosphere quasi-mixed limiting how much temperatures fall overnight. Temperatures continue to warm through the night at 925 hpa ahead of a weak trough passing through the region, potentially leading to warming through the night. Behind the trough, temperatures fall which could limit the amount of warming Tuesday afternoon.

Westerly flow returns on Wednesday leading to a nice warm up, but flow once again shifts back out of the north as a lee side trough develops in the west central plains and builds south towards the Gulf Coast by Friday. Arctic surface high is expected to build back into the Central US as a series of midlevel waves pass through the region. The first is a lobe that begins as a spoke around the upper level trough over the Hudson Bay but rotates counterclockwise to the west passing over the region mid-day Friday. Models indicate there may be enough near surface moisture for light snow ahead of the arctic front building south. LREF ensemble suggests 5-10% chance of a tenth of an inch of snow, but those probabilities drop to near 0 with slight increases in accumulation (greater than 0.5").

A shortwave is expected to top the upper ridge across the Western US on Friday, building into the Northern Plains on Saturday and potentially sliding southeast into the region next Saturday night- Sunday. Moisture looks to be very limited with arctic airmass in place, but LREF ensemble suggests a 10-20 percent chance of light snow (less than 1 inch of snow) across northern Missouri.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with sct-bkn clouds btn 3-4kft fcst thru 11Z-12Z...aft which clr skies are fcst. Winds will begin the pd out of the WNW and will gradually back to the SW btn 5-10kts thru 16Z-17Z. Aft 16Z-17Z winds will incr out of the SW to 10-15kts with gusts btn 20-25kts aft 20Z-21Z.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053- 054. KS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KSZ025- 057-060-102>105.