textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms possible Thursday morning. These will be non-severe. A better chance for strong to severe storms will exist late Thursday evening into the overnight.

- Much warmer and more humid conditions Friday and through the weekend.

- Multiple chances for strong to severe storms Friday and into weekend. Friday, particularly, could feature large hail and damaging winds with storms that develop during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Quiet weather today with a cooler and drier airmass, associated with a surface high pressure area moving into the region behind a cold front that moved through Tuesday evening. That high pressure area will shift to the Mid-Mississippi Valley by tomorrow morning, with southerly flow increasing to our west. Isentropic ascent, notable from 305K to 310K will develop over eastern KS before sunrise Thursday and shift east through the morning hours. Forecast soundings show some elevated instability is present, based on parcels lifting from around 7500 ft and higher. This ascent and weak, elevated instability may lead to isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday morning. No severe weather is expected given the elevated nature and weak overall instability.

More widespread storms, with better chances for strong to severe storms, will develop late Thursday evening and overnight. A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Central Plains during the day and track east through the day. Warm/ moist advection ahead of the shortwave will help dewpoint climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s. This will lead to moderate to strong instability across central to eastern KS during the day. Storms should develop in central KS along a boundary as the mid-level wave moves into the area. These storms may then congeal into a convective system as the shortwave progresses eastward with time during the evening and overnight hours. Instability weakens with eastward extent so overall, the storms should be trending weaker. But there may still be a threat of strong to severe storms, with mainly a damaging wind threat, as the system moves east.

Friday and through the weekend continue to look warm and humid. Have continued to pull the throttle back on high temperatures Friday and think that upper 80s to near 90 degree values look more reasonable given low-level thickness values. The increasingly warm and more humid conditions will lead to stronger instability building each day though. Looking through forecast soundings, especially Friday, there is minimal to no inhibition during peak heating. Given the potential for strong to extreme instability to build, with minimal inhibition, and modest 0-6km shear, severe storms look possible. Large hail and damaging winds look possible. Severe weather potential continues to look possible, mainly to the west of the area Saturday and especially Sunday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, if storms can organize into a convective system, there may be a risk of severe weather Saturday and Sunday night. There's so much uncertainty though given the small-scale details that are not resolvable at this point. But given it's over the weekend, being weather aware and keeping track of the latest forecast will be crucial.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast today as high pressure moves through the region. This will also lead northerly winds initially, with a period of variable winds this afternoon and evening, before winds become southeasterly tonight. Winds will generally be less than 10kts through the forecast.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.