textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds are expected today, coming in several rounds. Round 1 this morning and Round 2 mainly this afternoon. Wind gusts of 40-45 mph are likely. It's still very possible we see a few wind gusts of 50+ mph to near High Wind Warning Criteria.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon from eastern KS and parts of western MO due to a combination high winds and low humidity values.

- Snow showers are possible across northern MO as cold air spills into the region and the strong upper-level storm system moves overhead. There is a signal for snow squalls as well given the strength of the system.

- Very cold air move into the area Thursday night - Friday, with lows in the teens and 20s and wind chill values in the single digits and teens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Strong Winds Today:

Water vapor imagery shows a powerful storm system moving into the middle country early this morning, with strong drying noted across northeastern CO, northwestern KS, and southwestern NE. Strong southerly flow ahead of this storm system, is leading to wind gusts near or just above 45 mph across eastern KS and western MO. Given that, moved the start time of the western segment of the wind advisory up to start at 2 AM and the eastern segment to start at 6 AM. There will be a relative lull from mid to late morning, as the initial front is moving through the area and winds weaken. But behind that front, lapse rates steepen and mix into 40-50 kt winds between 1 and 1.5 KM. The secondary front will move through the area during the afternoon hours with similar steep lapse rates and mixing into more widespread 45-55 kt winds aloft. This continues past 00Z this evening and have extended the advisory through 03Z. It's possible this will need to be extended even later, especially for our northeastern zones. When looking at cross sections through the PV anomaly, as the system is moving over eastern KS and western MO, it appears there is some stratospheric/ PV intrusion and we see high PV air down to nearly 850mb. This is indicative of a very strong storm system and it's quite possible, even with going on the high end of model guidance for winds, that we see even stronger wind gusts. It's still possible we see gust near High Wind Warning criteria (58+mph) as the system is moving overhead.

Critical Fire Weather Conditions This Afternoon:

Afternoon humidity values will drop off quickly behind the initial front. And with winds increasing at the same time, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop. A red flag warning has been issued for our eastern KS counties, the KC metro and southward, including Johnson and Henry counties. While some of the areas in the Red Flag Warning may not see humidity values drop into the 20s, given the strength of the system, seeing fires breakout to our west overnight, as well some concerns from area emergency managers, have brought Red Flag Warning northward into areas that are forecast to see humidity values only fall into the mid 30% range, which includes the KC metro area. As the secondary front moves south, with strong cold and dry advection behind it, humidity values increase. But winds will continue to be strong and gusty after the expiration time of the warning.

Snow Showers This Afternoon:

With the upper-level PV anomaly moving overhead this afternoon, and strong cold advection occurring, there will likely be some snow showers and/or snow flurries across northern and northeastern MO. Forecast soundings show some shallow instability at the base of very low dendritic growth zone. Saturation is fairly shallow, though still around 5K ft. I went back and looked at the aircraft sounding for the February 14, 2010 snow squall event here, and that event had greater instability with it, as well as a more distinct, cutoff PV anomaly. This event has shallower instability and an attached PV anomaly that may actually extend deeper into the troposphere given the PV intrusion noted on cross sections. Regardless, have added some mention of snow to the forecast for northern and northeastern MO. It's possible, given the weak instability/ steep lapse rates, low DGZ, and saturation in that DGZ, that brief drops in visibility in snow occur. The NAM even shows positive values of the snow squall parameter this afternoon.

Cold Air Dropping Into the Area Tonight - Friday AM:

Strong cold advection behind the secondary front will drop temperatures quickly Thursday evening and overnight into Friday morning. This will result in low temperatures falling into the teens and 20s by Friday morning with wind chill values in the single digits to teens above zero. This isn't extreme cold for the area but it is slightly below normal for lows this time of year. And it's quite a contrast to the relatively balmy conditions currently across the area. The cold will also be short-lived as high pressure to our southeast quickly allows the surface flow to return to the south, leading to highs Friday climbing back into the upper 30s, in our northeast, to near 50 degrees, in our southwestern zones.

Rest of the Forecast:

The rest of the forecast continues to look relatively quiet. Upper ridging expands over almost the entire CONUS, with the ridge axis through the middle of the country. Our forecast shows highs climbing into the 60s across the southern half to two-thirds of the forecast for next week, which, given the strength of the ridging, makes sense.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Cold front has passed with clearing skies. Winds have remained gusty around 25 to 30kts out of the northwest. Additional VFR clouds may move in. Winds remain breezy through Friday afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ001>006- 011>015-020>023-028>031-037>040-043>046-053-054. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ020-028- 029-037-043-044-053-054. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ007-008-016- 017-024-025-032-033. KS...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057-060- 102>105. Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ025-057- 060-102>105.