textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditional risk for strong to severe storms this afternoon for areas generally southwest of Kansas City to Sedalia line. This will depend on how far north a warm front lifts northward.

- Widespread showers and storms expected tonight, mainly south of a Kirksville to Kansas City line. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.5- 3" are likely, with localized areas exceeding 3". A flood watch has been issued for this area from 00Z tonight through 18Z Thursday.

- There is some potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon, mainly east of a Unionville to Boonville line.

- Severe weather continues to look likely Friday afternoon and evening across the entire area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As of 18Z, observations and satellite imagery show the warm front just south of the forecast area, in the vicinity of Chanute to Fort Scott to south of Lebanon, MO. This front should slowly lift northward into Linn Co KS to Clinton, MO by late this afternoon. This should result in about 1500 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE building into our extreme southern zones. As a result, the best potential for any afternoon/ early evening severe weather will be in our far south. The further north one is from the warm front, the lower the chances for severe weather this afternoon. Given the CAPE/shear combination, large hail is the main hazard. But can't rule out some strong winds and a tornado, especially if a storm can anchor to the warm front as storm motions should be nearly parallel to the boundary.

For this evening and overnight, confidence is fairly high that widespread showers and storms will develop as strong ascent develops over much of the forecast area. Increasingly diffluent flow aloft with strong low/mid-level moisture transport into and over the warm front will lead to an increase in coverage of precipitation after 00Z tonight. This looks somewhat similar to the previous night where convection really increased in coverage from about 02Z-04Z and persisted through the overnight. Ensemble guidance from the HREF shows PMM QPF with widespread 1.5-3" amounts south of a Kirksville to Kansas City line. Within this area there are pockets of 3"+ rain amounts. NAEFS shows precipitable water values are at or near the max values in that system's climatology for this time of year over much of the forecast area. With increased confidence in heavy rainfall tonight, with some of the area already seeing heavy rainfall from the previous night, a flood watch has been issued from 00Z Thu / 7 PM tonight through 18Z Thu / 1 PM tomorrow. As mentioned, this includes areas south of a Kirksville to Kansas City line.

For Thursday, the new Day 2 convective outlook from SPC brings a slight risk into our eastern zones. This will be ahead of a cold front that will be quickly tracking east through the forecast area. Ahead of the cold front, modest instability will develop, with SBCAPE values ranging from roughly 1000-1500 J/kg. Favorable deep- layer shear nearly perpendicular to the front will favor some discrete cells. Timing for our eastern zones for this round of potentially severe storms looks like the afternoon hours, ending by 00Z as the front moves east of the area.

For Friday, a very unstable air mass will develop with afternoon SBCAPE values approaching 3000 J/kg. This will occur in a strongly sheared environment with shear vectors nearly perpendicular to the front. This will favor, at least initially, discrete storm development, with all hazard types possible. However, steep mid- level lapse rates may support very large hail. Storms should then quickly congeal into a more linear mode and with 0-3km shear of 30- 40 kts, there may be some embedded mesovortices as the line tracks east that could lead to enhanced wind gusts/damage and/or tornadoes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Showers with a few lightning strikes in the vicinity should begin working their way into the terminals shortly and should by and large continue through around 13z Thursday morning, with reductions in VIS down to 4SM or so within the more moderate periods of rain. The terminals remain north of the warm front at the moment, so winds remain out of the east. However, the front should lift northward overnight, with winds turning southerly and then southwesterly. Wind speeds should increase considerably, with sustained winds on the order of 20 to 25 knots and gusts up to 35 knots from roughly 13z to 21z Thursday. Winds should finally relax entirely by around 00z Friday. IFR CIGs should improve to MVFR by around 13z and to VFR by around 16z Thursday.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Flood Watch through this afternoon for MOZ017-021>025-028>033- 037>040-043>046-053-054. KS...Flood Watch through this afternoon for KSZ057-060-103>105.