textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures continue warming above average today through midweek

- Enhanced fire weather conditions anticipated Tuesday

- Next chance for precipitation Tuesday evening (30-40%) and Friday evening (20-30%)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Upper level ridging continues to build overhead as clear skies and sunshine will see us through the rest of the afternoon. Winds remain light and variable across much of the forecast area as low pressure continues to propagate west, before becoming predominantly south/southwesterly by the evening as low level ridging amplifies. Tomorrow, mid-high level cloud cover will begin to build in from the east, with enhanced southwesterly flow contributing to greater warm air advection and subsequent temperature increases. There is the potential for some gustier winds going into the afternoon through greater mixing with the warm, dry air advection and some diurnal heating. By Tuesday, the continuation of this regime with greater warm air advection will bring our maximum temperatures into the high 60s and low 70s for much of the area. These temperatures would creep close to record highs for the day, but present guidance indicates that the highest percentile for maximum temperature would still be a handful of degrees lower than current records. However, these temperatures are still well above normal for the time of year, so it is still noteworthy that we're even hitting the 70s in February to begin with. With these abnormally warm temperatures, paired with stronger winds/wind gusts and dry air, there is concern for enhanced fire weather conditions on Tuesday. However, with RH values remaining within the range of 40-50% and recent rainfall, these conditions do not rise into critical thresholds.

Tuesday evening, a shortwave digging southward from the Dakotas and its associated cold front will be cause for our next chance of precipitation. The surface low remains far enough to the north that any probability for precipitation doesn't remain high, or have much residency over our area going into Wednesday. This trend remains consistent to previous forecasts, increasing confidence in timing and precipitation placement for that time period. There are low indications of thunder with this system, with greater instability possible due to increased temperature and moisture transport within the precipitation band. With subsequent forecasts, will have to keep an eye on that potential to hone in on greater details that would aid in placing greater probabilities with thunder into the forecast.

After this period, expecting temperatures to cool to more seasonally average as an active upper level pattern begins to take shape. A passing shortwave trough Thursday evening will invigorate some precipitation chances (10-20%) through the northern half of Missouri, with another shortwave trough passing on Saturday providing another chance at precipitation (20-30%). However, at this point in the forecast, deterministic models diverge in solutions to potential precipitation, so not putting much stock into those solutions this far out. Else, temperatures anticipated to fall with subsequent cold air advection behind these passing shortwaves, cooling temperatures back to seasonally normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all four terminals through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds will become gusty later this morning with gusts around 25kts lasting through the afternoon.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...None. KS...None.