textproduct: Kansas City/Pleasant Hill

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continuing through the end of the week and into the weekend for some areas. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect along and south of the Missouri River. A Heat Advisory is in effect south of US-136 along and west of US-65. - Chances for showers and storms continue in the vicinity of a stationary front fluctuating between southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Lingering cloud cover could mitigate high temperatures over the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Heat concerns continue under a mostly unchanged synoptic pattern with an upper-level ridge overhead and the same stationary boundary lingering in southern Iowa and northern Missouri. Showers and storms this morning and afternoon have mitigated much of the heat across northern and northeastern Missouri. As such, the Heat Advisory was cancelled for Sullivan, Adair, Linn, and Macon counties. The Heat Advisory was retained just to the west of these counties due to greater recovery during the solar heating period. The Extreme Heat Warning for the KC Metro will remain in effect through Friday evening whereas the Extreme Heat Warning further south has been extended through Saturday evening.

An east/west band of showers and storms has developed in the vicinity of either the stationary boundary or a residual outflow boundary from convection earlier in the morning. Despite roughly 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE, poor shear should prevent adequate organization and severe potential. CAMs continue to struggle, but some more recent runs suggest we could see this band of showers and embedded storms continue through parts of the evening before dissipating.

Not too dissimilar from previous nights, scattered storm development is expected to kick off over the Central/High Plains, growing upscale over time leading to an MCS rolling through much of Nebraska and Iowa. Depending on the southern extent of this development, we could once again see storms crossing into northern Kansas and Missouri Thursday morning. Currently have 15-30% PoPs in our northern fringes tomorrow morning but wouldn't be surprised if these need to be increased in later forecast cycles. If storms are able to tap into a locally conducive environment, we may be able to see some small hail and damaging wind gusts. Unfortunately, the most likely area for any severe weather to occur would be across northern and northeastern Missouri, an area that has faced the brunt of severe weather these last few days. SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather in north/northeastern Missouri tonight into tomorrow morning.

Shower and storm chances do not end tomorrow morning, however, an additional shortwave is expected to take advantage of the nocturnal low-level jet tomorrow evening into Friday morning, once again renewing storm chances late Thursday night into Friday morning and potentially into the afternoon hours, though that is much lower confidence at this time. If storms continue into the afternoon or redevelopment occurs, we could see overnight storms once again as the low-level jet ramps up. SPC has issued a Marginal Risk for both Thursday and Friday encompassing the potential for damaging winds and hail. Generally, PoPs are between 15-30% over this timeframe, peaking during the overnight and early morning hours but bottoming out in the afternoon due to uncertainty.

A more widespread "cooldown" looks probable Sunday into Monday with a cold front expected to move through the region sometime during this timeframe. The exact timing of the frontal passage may result in a north/south gradient of temperatures on Sunday with temperatures 10-15 degrees cooler in our far north compared to our far south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions continue to prevail across the sites are expected to remain so through the period. Winds currently a bit more chaotic in direction across the sites, but will gradually settle out of the SE to S through the evening and overnight hours. By the daytime Thursday, sustained winds around 10 kts with occasional gusts to around 20 kts possible, especially for the KC Metro sites. Cloud cover ranges from mostly clear to cloudy currently, but well within VFR ranges. This will tend to continue overnight, then more general clearing during latter portions.

EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for MOZ028>033-037- 038. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ039-040- 043>046-053-054. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ011>015-020>023. KS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ025-103>105. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ057-060. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ102.