textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter weather advisory remains in affect for parts of the area with a widespread 1 to 3 inches. Snow will end from west to east this evening.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast through the remainder of the forecast period. Wednesday night into Thursday will be the coldest night of the season to date with a 60 to 80% chance of low temperatures below zero on Thursday morning.

- An active pattern continues with low chances for snow on Wednesday and again late week into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A positively tilted trough continues to lift across the area early this afternoon with light to moderate snowfall across the area. The better moisture and forcing continues to be to our south along Interstate 80. Current visibilities across the area ranges from 1/2 to 1 1/2 miles but some of the visibility restriction is due to moisture in the column and not snowfall intensity. Due to these reasons, have reduced the snow ratio used in the forecast for this afternoon resulting in overall lower snowfall totals with widespread 1 to 3 inches across the area with the highest totals generally in far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. This will continue to impact the area through the evening rush hour and will leave the winter weather advisory in effect for this reason. This wave is forecast to exit the area prior to 06 UTC. Low temperatures overnight will continue to be cold with lows from around +10 to +14*F across the area.

Weak high pressure is forecast to pass to our south tonight into Tuesday with clouds lingering across the area. Winds will be southwesterly through the period. Due to the cloud cover, high temperatues are forecast to be in the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Overall, only minor changes have occurred into the forecast beyond Tuesday. Please see the previous long term forecast discussion.

The main theme of the long term period will be below normal temperatures (very cold temperatures and wind chills at times), along with a few bouts of precipitation. First, let's talk temperatures. Wednesday high temperatures will generally be in the 20s to lower 30s, so seasonably cold for this time of the year. This is all thanks to a high pressure ridge axis that will sweep through the area, leading to southerly return flow and enhanced warm air advection.

Temperatures actually look to be their coldest of the week on Wednesday and Thursday nights as a cold front is progged to sweep through the area during the daylight hours Wednesday. Post-frontal, an arctic air mass looks to build into the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures near -11 to -14 degrees C per the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles. This is quite cold for early December, and the ECMWF EFI shows a strong signal for consensus in the ECMWF ensembles for very cold conditions, with values of -0.8 to -0.99. In short, Wednesday night/Thursday morning is likely to be the coldest night of the season so far. NBM probabilities of low temperatures below zero Thursday morning are around 60-80% for most locations (highest over areas west of a Iowa City to Dubuque line), and even values of 20-50% for morning lows of 10 below zero or colder! Northwesterly winds post- frontal could also result in bitterly cold wind chills of less than 20 below zero, so keep an eye on the forecast as we approach Wednesday night. Thursday during the day will be cold with high temperatures near 10 degrees to 13 degrees above zero. Thursday night could also be quite cold, although early indications suggesting not as cold as Thursday morning. Temperatures do look to moderate some next week.

Back to the precipitation potential on Wednesday with the cold front: overall, the front appears to be moisture-starved, so there doesn't appear to be much in terms of snow accumulations with it. There is a signal for a larger system to move through the area next weekend Saturday night, but there isn't as much model consensus on the timing, coverage, and intensity of the precipitation, so confidence remains low on this potential system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Pockets of clearing skies behind system that brought light snow to the region is resulting in visibilities beginning to lower ahead of a MVFR stratus deck in central IA. Models are really struggling with evolution of clouds and have leaned on nowcast tools for this TAF issuance. These IFR/LIFR vsby reductions will be possible primarily at CID/DBQ prior to the MVFR stratus deck arriving this morning. Have timed these clouds clearing all the terminals by mid afternoon, with conditions returning to VFR. Winds to turn from westerly to southwesterly and remain under 10 kts through the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ066>068. IL...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ007- 009-015>018-024>026-035. MO...None.