textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak systems moving through in the Wednesday night through Friday time period will provide chances for light snow or flurries over roughly the northeast half of the area. The Thursday night into Friday morning time frame will need to be watched for the potential of some freezing drizzle to occur.

- A pronounced warm-up to above normal temperatures commences this weekend and continues into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Quiet conditions will be seen late this afternoon and evening as clouds increase ahead for the first of two systems.

After midnight southerly flow will increase across the area ahead of the first system. The waa will be moving over the more dense cold air aloft. This moisture flow combined with a seeder/feeder mechanism further aloft is expected to result in flurries or areas of light snow to develop in the pre-dawn hours mainly north of I-80.

On Thursday the first of what is being suggested as several bands of stronger forcing will move through the area shortly after sunrise. The slightly further south and west track of the system indicates at least flurries should be seen as far south as a Belle Plaine, IA to Galesburg, IL line. Light snow is expected east of a Manchester, IA to Kewanee, IL line.

The best chances for snow and accumulation is east of a Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL line. Accumulations in this area will be somewhat spotty with the maximum amount likely being a dusting.

The last of the forcing and lift moves out of the area Thursday afternoon. However, clouds will persist and help suppress temperatures. The good news is that much of the area should see temperatures above freezing.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 123 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Thursday night/Friday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of seeing precipitation

The second clipper system moves through the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. The models prog this system to track a bit further to the north and east so precipitation will impact less of the area.

Unlike the previous system, there are internal signals from the models that suggest the potential for some freezing drizzle at times late Thursday night into Friday. The signal is still weak but slightly stronger than 24 hours ago. As a result the model consensus has a 20-30 percent chance of light snow that may be interspersed with freezing drizzle as the stronger forcing moves out of the area and ice aloft in the clouds is lost.

The precipitation ends with the passage of the cold front Friday. Cold advection behind the front will boost winds and result in a windy and cold day even though temperatures climb above freezing prior to the frontal passage.

Friday night through Monday night Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a pronounced warm-up

All global models build a thermal ridge into the central CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. This feature nearly guarantees temperatures trending above normal. The amount above normal, sadly, is uncertain due to how the flow pattern evolves in the higher latitudes.

While there are some very weak disturbances aloft progged to move through the area, moisture is very limited due to a progged split flow across the CONUS. Thus only an increase in clouds should mark the passage of each disturbance.

Tuesday through Wednesday Assessment...low (10-20%) confidence on precipitation. High (70-80%) confidence on above normal temperatures

The global models continue to forecast a split flow across the CONUS which raises questions as to the amount of moisture available for precipitation.

All models show a weak low and associated front moving through the Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A new low develops in the southern Plains Tuesday night and moves along the front into the Great Lakes on Wednesday.

All deterministic runs of the global models are essentially dry Tuesday into Wednesday with both systems. A majority of the ensemble runs of the global models are also dry as is the ECMWF-AIFS. Interestingly, the AIGFS, several members of the GEFS and a few members of the EPS depict light QPF across the area with the AIGFS being the heaviest.

Given these differences, the model consensus continues to only have a 20 percent chance of rain for the area. With an upper level high over the Gulf, the return flow is weak and the moisture flow is being shunted into the Ohio Valley. If the position of these features remains fairly consistent over the rest of the week, the rain chances have a high probability of decreasing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Winds under 10 knots through 12z/05 as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. Approaching clipper system will bring light snow or flurries after 10z/05 as the warm advection wing begins rotating through northeast Iowa and northern Illinois. There is a 20-30 percent probability that KDBQ may experience a brief period of MVFR conditions with light snow a few hours either side of sunrise Thursday. The probability of MVFR/IFR conditions are much higher east of the Mississippi after 12z/05.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.