textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will be seen this afternoon and evening as a cold front passes through. Gusts upwards to 25-35 mph will be possible, which may result in localized/brief visibility reductions due to blowing dust.

- Scattered showers and storms will pass through the area this afternoon/evening, where a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday through the remainder of the week, gradually increasing at the end of the week, with low-end chances for light rain showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This afternoon and evening, strong mixing will result in gusty winds throughout the area, with southwesterly winds ahead of the front and north-northwesterly behind. We will generally see gusts between 25-35 mph, but a few higher gusts cannot be ruled out. This will especially be true for areas along the approaching cold front and for a few hours after frontal passage into tonight. This may result in localized areas of blowing dust, as we have seen over the weekend. Although, it should be localized and result in brief visibility reductions if we do see some blowing field dust.

Broad upper trof over the Upper Great Lakes region will slowly sag south through the evening and night, with strong westerly flow set up along the southern edge of this. This westerly flow starts out towards the Rockies, which will help guide weak waves toward the area through the night and tomorrow. Although, this afternoon/evening we will see a cold front pass through the area, associated with the seasonally strong surface low north of the Great Lakes Region. Along this cold front, we will see isolated-scattered showers/storms develop and pass through the area from northwest to southeast. We can see showers/storms develop as early as 4PM north of I-80, but confidence on the start time is lower owing to plenty of dry air present. Coverage will gradually increase along the front between 4-6PM, with better chances/coverage for areas south of I-80, especially after 6PM. A few of these storms may be strong to severe later this afternoon and evening. A look into model soundings would favor wind being the primary threat, owing to plenty of dry air resulting from strong evaporative cooling, with hail being secondary. The better threat to see any hail will be south of I-80, generally along/south of Highway 34. CAM soundings indicate better instability (1500-2000 J/kg CAPE) and decent mid-level lapse rates for hail in those areas.

By around 10PM, we should see the strongest storms move out of our area, leaving us with post-frontal showers and storms through the remainder of the night. The nighttime activity should largely remain along/south of the Highway 34 corridor. Although, these will also be relatively scattered in nature. QPF for the event as a whole will remain low, with the whole area generally seeing <0.10-0.25". Residual cloud cover will help moderate temperatures in the upper 40s tonight, with much of the area remaining dry. As we go into Tuesday, we remain under influence of the large upper trof sitting over the north-central CONUS. With that, weak bouts of energy will continue to pass through the area, brining on/off showers and storms tomorrow for areas along/south of Highway 34. This will not be a washout, with QPF remaining low. Rather, a gloomy day with cooler air and cloudy skies will be seen. For the remainder of the area, we will see quite the change from the previous couple of days temperature-wise, with post-frontal airmass keeping us in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain light and out of the north, with mostly cloudy skies throughout.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Wednesday... A high pressure anchors well to the west, with a surface low north of the Great Lakes Region, advecting in cooler air from the north. Temperatures are forecasted to be 5-10 degrees below average for this time of year with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows in the mid-30s to low 40s. Some clouds will stick around due to cyclonic flow aloft over the region.

Thursday... The longwave trough that has been lingering over the Northern Plains for the first half of the week will finally eject off to the east, pulling a shortwave southeastward with it. A 500 mb vorticity maximum is forecasted to pass across Iowa on Thursday providing some lift for light rain showers as winds shift from northerly to westerly. This will kick off a warming trend as highs climb into the mid-60s.

Friday-Sunday... Northwest flow aloft returns with the potential for a couple shortwave passages, similar to a clipper pattern. A weak front Friday could bring additional showers with southwesterly flow at the surface, bumping highs closer to 70. Saturday will be mostly dry before the ECMWF ensembles and GEFS hint at a mid-level frontogenesis band developing to our south across Missouri ahead of a surface low deepening over the south-central Plains. This could bring some stratiform rain into southern Iowa, but there is general uncertainty in the northern extent of this precipitation and amounts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front is approaching the area from the northwest, bringing clouds back mainly south of I-80. VFR conditions are likely through the entire 24 hour period, but brief MVFR conditions are possible at KCID, KMLI, and KBRL late afternoon into the evening if thunderstorms develop nearby. Brief cig reductions to 4000-5000 ft are possible in heaviest showers, with vis reductions to 4-6 SM. Otherwise, the main focus is on the wind shift with the front as southwesterly flow flips to northerly. Wind gusts up to 25 KTs are possible post-frontal passage before subsiding overnight. Another BKN to OVC cloud deck will move in by Tuesday morning, but cigs will remain above 8000 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Strong daytime heating will result in deep mixing of the atmosphere late this morning and afternoon. Winds gusting up to 30 mph combined with warm temperatures will drop afternoon humidity levels into the 25 to 35 percent range. The rapid green up from the heavier than normal April rainfall will partially mitigate the fire risk. However, if the deep mixing causes humidity levels to drop lower than forecast, then the fire risk would be higher.

Based on the available data, the fire risk from late this morning through the afternoon is elevated but at the low end of elevated. Any outdoor burning should still be postponed.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.