textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The stormy weather pattern continues through Friday night with several rounds of showers and storms to go through, leading to widespread soaking rains of 1-3+ inches.

- Back to back Enhanced Risk/Level 3 days Thursday and Friday with all hazards possible.

- Away from the storms, near advisory criteria winds Thursday afternoon with gusts to 40+ mph from the south.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Tonight...Strong south-southwesterly LLJ of 40 to 50 KTs ahead of a well pronounced(looking at the feature acrs the 4-corners region on WV imagery) upper trof to surge acrs the area tonight. This elevated THTA-E feed to produce another plume of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms spreading northward acrs the area this evening and overnight. Rainfall acrs the area by Thu morning may be close to the PWAT feed of 1.2 to 1.5 inches, or at least some swaths of 1+ inches. This may produce some ponding water in the south where they got some decent rainfall last night. A few of the more robust cells late tonight may produce small hail, but not much more support thermodynamically for larger hail and agree with the SPC removal of the Marginal Risk in our south tonight. Sfc cyclogenesis will look to blossom acrs western KS late tonight to the lee of the ejecting upper wave, possibly to sub-1000 MB levels by 12z Thu. The associated warm front may start to get edgy and want to retreat toward our southern CWA by 12z Thu, otherwise ongoing pre-frontal brisk east sfc winds to continue and the sfc temps may show a steady to slow rise trend through the 40s overnight and into the morning.

Thursday...Using accepted a shorter range type of ensemble feature placement and handling, a sfc low deepening to 997 or even lower will encroach upon the DSM area by 17-18z Thu, pulling the warm front up to at least I-80 or even Hwy 30 by the same time. Ongoing SSW LLJ of 45-50 KTs will continue to stream acrs the area, and with a temporary precip decrease or move off to the north with some southerly mid level dry intrusion, there may be a few elevated storms more capable of producing hail Thu morning than tonight. Then the incoming upper trof taking a Negative tilt acrs and just east of the mid MO RVR Valley, along with a NNE-to-SSW oriented mid and upper jet-let on the eastern flank with some left exit effects, start inducing deeper lift and sfc based convective ignition acrs east IA by mid afternoon. The big thing is where the warm front lays out and how far north it can retreat northward through the afternoon. The bulk of the solutions have it north of the DVN CWA by 20-21z or so, but a few hang it up along the Hwy 20 corridor until sfc wave passage acrs northeast IA after 22z.

The DVN CWA will look to be almost full blown warm sector by early afternoon, with lingering morning showers/storms exiting out. Strong LLVL pressure gradient fields will look to induce strong southerly sfc/BL winds by midday, especially along and south of I-80. Mixing tools on the strong LLVL wind fields shows gusts of 40 to 45 MPH and like the previous shift mentioned, near wind advisory criteria in the ambient flow away from storms. Some worry that even just a shower may mix down 50 mph winds. With so much going on, will hold off a wind advisory for now, but it may be an idea. Sfc temps warming into the low to mid 70s and DPTs in the low to mid 60s making available layer CAPEs of up to 1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. This banking on the strong southerly flow blowing out all the morning and midday convective debris especially in the expected new convection spawning grounds of the western CWA by mid afternoon.

Bulk shear profiles close to being all effective layer as well and range from 40-50 KTs acrs the warm sector, higher on the warm front and along the cold front. Warm sector LCL's may be as low as 1500 FT AGL. Warm front SRH's of 200-300+ m2/s2. All this along with the cyclonic tilted wave aloft with embedded vort max lead to a tornado concern. A potentially strong/significant tornado on the warm front from the Hwy 20 corridor to/acrs southern WI Thu afternoon and evening. Warm sector storms also capable of weaker EF-0/1 tornadoes. But the strong ambient low to mid level wind fields and kinematics suggest damaging wind gusts of 60-70+ MPH may be the primary warm sector storm threat. The storms will be fast moving and timing some CAM speeds in handling echoes suggest motions of 60 to 65 MPH, making for problematic warning sectors. Will probably have 1 to 3 arching bands of broken lines of of lower CAPE/High shear supercells moving acrs the area tomorrow afternoon.

Most storms to exit off to the east by 9 pm and incoming dry slot to take over by Thu late evening. More swaths of a half inch to at least 1 inch of rainfall Thu adding to the Wed night totals.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Friday and Saturday...Friday a similar upper second low, but may be larger and closed off will look to eject out acrs the upper Midwest through Sat morning. Some similar aspects as to the Thursday system, but a later time of day and bit further west mass field placement may have the strongest storm initiation off to the west of the DVN CWA Friday evening. Latest storm analytics suggest the area may be more under the gun of a squall line moving in from the west than supercell development overhead. But there may be that element too(supercell type storms or semi-discrete) ahead of the squall line. In any case, the bookend to Thursday Elevated Risk rides for now for late Friday. The prime warm moist conveyor fueling a swath of heavy rain may look to occur just to the south and southeast of the DVN CWA Friday night into Saturday. Post-frontal cooler day Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Continued cooler and more seasonable this stretch into early next week, with a return flow induced precip event possible some time Tue into next Wed.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Lower MVFR deck remains in place at KMLI, KCID and KDBQ with IFR ceilings at KBRL. A line of rain showers is lifting northward across eastern Iowa this evening and will impact each TAF sites through 3 UTC with mainly MVFR visibility reductions. Placed a tempo group for -TSRA at KBRL for a arcing line of thunderstorms moving northward from Missouri. SHRA will become more widespread and impact all TAF sites after 03 UTC with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities. Placed prob 30s for tsra at KBRL and KMLI through 6 UTC. Showers will come to an end from south to north after 12 UTC Thursday with ceilings continue to be IFR to LIFR across the area. Another round of showers and storms are possible after 18 UTC but confidence is low at this time on the timing so they were left out of the TAFs for now. East winds of 15 to 25 knots will turn to the south after 12 UTC from south to north as a warm front lifts across the area. The winds will then turn to the west by the end of the period. Wind gusting up to 30 knots are possible after 18 UTC>

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.