textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong storm system will impact the area Friday afternoon and evening. An Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) of severe weather has been highlighted across the area by SPC.

- Much cooler conditions are expected this weekend. Unseasonably cool temperatures in the 30s overnight will bring the potential for frost/freeze, especially in our north.

- Area rivers are on the rise from the recent rounds of heavy rain. Another round of heavy rain is forecast Friday night which may push river levels higher. Refer to the hydro section for more information.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Tonight

Southerly return flow to set back up across the area with mainly clear skies. Some isolated fog may still be possible late tonight in valleys due to the rain the last few nights, however with southerly to southeasterly winds increasing late tonight toward daybreak the potential will be limited.

Friday

Another strong storm system is set to impact the area Friday into Friday night as an upper trough moves through the central US. A warm front will lift northward across the area early in the day, with a cold front to sweep through the area later in the evening. Another round of thunderstorms and severe storms will be possible by early Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Temperatures will warm into the 70s to low 80s, with increasing humidity as dewpoints climb back into the mid 60s.

Two rounds of activity are still expected with the first earlier in the afternoon possible along the pre-frontal trough as instability increases to around 3000 J/kg of CAPE and deep layer shear of around 45 kts. This round is when more of the discrete activity could be expected along with clusters of storms with a greater threat of QLCS/squall line development expected into evening as the cold front moves through the area. While all modes of severe weather will be possible with both rounds of storms, a greater threat of the stronger tornadoes will occur with any of the storms that remain more discrete and isolated through Friday afternoon into the evening, and a transition to a significant wind threat, with more brief tornadoes will be possible into the evening with the squall line type storms.

Additionally, with already wet conditions in place, and the high amounts of moisture to stream into the area with this system bringing a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding due to the repeated rounds of rainfall, and heavy rainfall potential with the storms as well.

The latest severe outlook by SPC for Friday has an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) area-wide and WPC has a Slight Risk for flash flooding (level 2 of 4). Continue to keep up with the forecast for Friday as we will be able to provide more details on timing, location, and specific hazards.

Saturday

Much colder air moves into the area in northwest flow pattern aloft Saturday. With an area of high pressure across the area at the surface, overnight temperatures will fall much lower into Saturday night. Temperatures into the 30s can be expected overnight Saturday night into Sunday with some frost/freeze potential across the northern half of the area by Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Cooler conditions continue into Sunday with a moderating trend into Monday and the remainder of the week. Overall a quieter pattern expected with a broad upper ridge in place through the central US into early/mid week. A larger trough begins to take shape across the western US into the latter portion of the week. Therefore some warming and move toward some smaller precipitation chances start to return to the area by Thursday with a larger storm system potentially nearing the region just beyond the current forecast period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Main low clouds and fog has dissipated from earlier, with some lingering low cu/CIGs at KMLI into the afternoon. Northerly winds to begin backing to the west/south into the evening and be southeast by Friday morning. Some uncertainty in fog development late tonight, so have mainly left out for now. Did highlight more in the north at KDBQ where greater potential at this time with a MVFR VSBY. Otherwise increasing high clouds and some gustiness in the southeasterly winds late in the period Friday morning.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1136 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

What has changed...

River flood warnings have been issued for the Rock River from Como down to the mouth.

River flood warnings have been issued for the lower Iowa River at Wapello and Oakville along with the Cedar River near Conesville.

River flood warnings are now in effect for the Mississippi River from Muscatine down through Burlington and for Gregory Landing.

A river flood watch has been issued for the Mississippi River at Dubuque.

Discussion...

Over the past five days multiple rounds of heavy rain have impacted eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts have run from 2 to 5 inches of rain; much of this rain has been north of Highway 30.

Another round of heavy rain is forecast Friday afternoon and night with amounts running from 1 to 2 plus inches. With area soils running from moist to near saturation, this additional rainfall will quickly run off into area waterways resulting in new or increased river flooding along with the potential for flash flooding.

Much of this rain is forecast to fall across southeast Iowa, west central Illinois and into northern Illinois. River basins impacted would be the Rock, lower Iowa, Skunk, Des Moines and La Moine.

Rock River...

Based on overall river forecasts and another round of heavy rain expected Friday night, confidence is high (>80%) that the entire length of the Rock River will reach flood stage by the weekend and remain above flood stage into much of next week.

Mississippi River...

Routed flow from coming down from the upper Mississippi, Wisconsin, Rock, Iowa and other tributary rivers will cause general rises along the length of the Mississippi. Based on the current routed flow and another round of heavy rain, confidence is high (>80%) that the Mississippi will reach flood stage from Muscatine down through Keithsburg and at Gregory Landing. Gladstone and Burlington are already above flood stage and will see additional rises as the additional routed flow arrives over the weekend and into next week.

Iowa Tributary Rivers...

Rivers in eastern Iowa are running high from the rounds of heavy rain. Flood warnings continue for the lower Wapsipinicon River near DeWitt and the Iowa River above Coralville near Marengo. Based on routed flow, the lower Cedar River near Conesville will go above flood stage over the weekend.

The North Skunk River near Sigourney is forecast to go above flood stage tonight into Friday with general rises expected further downstream and on the Skunk River.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.