textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Active pattern continues through Friday night with several rounds of showers and storms leading to widespread soaking rains of 1-3+ inches.

- Increasing severe weather potential Thursday and Friday with all hazards possible.

- Near advisory criteria winds Thursday PM with gusts to 40+ mph from the south.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A stationary boundary extends from a weak low on the KS/OK border to near the I-70 corridor in MO then into central OH early this morning. A passing mid level shortwave and ramping elevated theta-e advection atop the front is leading to widespread showers and some storms south of I-80. Meanwhile, a lake enhanced boundary is moving through northern IL. This is accompanied by some stratus and potentially also a bit of drizzle with lower ceilings along with gusty northeast winds. We do expect the precipitation to diminish by mid morning as the shortwave exits and theta-e advection abates. Otherwise, the lake enhanced boundary will move through with clouds and brisk/gusty northeast winds. Lake MI temps are still only in the mid 30s and so this will have an impact on our temps and have lowered most locations highs into the 40s today. Any areas that see some filtered sunshine, particularly favored across our northwest will likely get into the 50s. Where the low clouds hang in temps may not budge much beyond the mid 40s (brisk winds making it feel more like the 30s) and there could be some patches of drizzle, just a really raw day.

By mid to late afternoon we should see showers re-develop, initially south with burgeoning coverage of showers and some storms into the evening, as a renewed round of elevated theta-e advection occurs ahead of another mid level wave ejecting out ahead of a robust Rockies shortwave trough. This will be accompanied by an anomalously high moisture fetch/IVT with PWATs climbing to 1.3 to 1.5". This will support then a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall tonight into Thursday morning with areas of 1-2" of rain generally welcomed and beneficial with the ongoing drought and below normal soil moisture. Thus, do not anticipate much flooding concerns with any isolated flash flooding mostly driven by high rainfall rates in urban areas should that occur.

During the day on Thursday we'll see ingredients coming together to support the threat for severe weather mainly in the afternoon and evening, as the Rockies trough ejects toward the Upper Midwest while taking on a negative tilt. Correspondingly, the surface low will follow with the general consensus of deterministic and ensemble guidance tracking the surface low from southwest/south central Iowa into southwest Wisconsin by Thursday evening. This is a synoptic setup that is favorable for severe weather. The upper jet while not curved is more meridional, but still in tandem with a 50-60 kt LLJ will foster favorable kinematics to support severe weather. The uncertainty with this setup lies with the morning precipitation and how long does that persist, but given the magnitude of the LLJ we can quickly recover and so I'm not overly concerned. Even if instability is limited like some solutions suggest with MLCAPE < 1000 j/kg, still strong shear and robust low level wind profiles to support HSLC potential with QLCS and mesovorts for a damaging wind/tornado threat. Something to watch for is the strength of the surface low. If it were to deepen more than current consensus shows then big ramifications with tornado threat increasing due to more backing of low level flow and SRH, with also potential for discrete cells. The threat could develop earlier too around midday or so. Outside of any convection, the combination of an increasing pressure gradient and mix down of strong winds just off the deck support the potential for near wind advisory criteria gusts from the south at 40-45 mph during the day on Thursday.

Convection should be quickly exiting by early Thursday evening, with dry conditions returning Thursday night as a weak bout of surface ridging builds in.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 355 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Little rest from the active weather, as yet another vigorous western CONUS trough is set to move across the Midwest by Friday night. This shortwave will take on more of a positive tilt, but will be undergoing deepening with 150-200m+ 500 hPa height falls. We'll see another surface low develop and track similarly to the Thursday system, passing in or near our western service area by Friday evening. We'll see the warm front lifting northward into the area advecting in dew points of 60+ degrees. This moisture in concert with increasing kinematics will foster another day of increased severe weather potential. All hazards are in play here with the main concerns for discrete supercells with very large hail and tornadoes, particularly along the warm front and near the surface low track. As such, SPC has already upgraded southwest portions of the area in a Level 3 or Enhanced Risk for severe weather, with a Level 2 or Slight Risk over the rest of the area.

All told by Saturday morning, between the 3 events we are looking at widespread 1-3 inch rainfall totals with higher amounts to 5+ inches possible. While we can't rule out some river flooding, mainly where the heaviest rains 3-5+ inches occur, for most rivers we can expect within bank rises albeit potentially substantial. After this system passes Saturday morning, we should dry out for the rest of Easter weekend and turn cooler/seasonable.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Predominantly MVFR conditions expected during the period, with also some IFR and VFR areas as well.

Stratiform rain at KBRL and KMLI will diminish by 15z. Stratus with IFR to lower MVFR ceilings will linger. Some decrease in the low ceilings and improvement to VFR is suggested in the recent guidance, mainly north of I-80 or at all sites but KBRL mid morning and afternoon. Tonight, expect the stratus and lower MVFR to IFR ceilings to overspread the rest of the terminals and will be accompanied by showers. A few storms are possible, but too low of confidence to include. Winds will be easterly and become gusty at 15-30 kt throughout. There may be periods of sustained winds 20-25 kt and gusts 35+ kt this evening/tonight, mainly after 03z.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.