textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures expected through the rest of the week and into next week.

- Precipitation chances remain limited through early next week, leading to higher precip deficits and worsening drought conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave tracking southeast across northwest South Dakota early this morning, with another subtle wave just downstream in northern Nebraska. Mostly virga has been seen ahead of the latter wave, due to a dry sub-cloud layer per OAX 00z sounding last evening. Closer to home, an increase in mid-high level clouds was seen with temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Precip chances remain very low today (<20%) as the aforementioned waves move through this morning. PoPs are now only confined to the southwest third of the CWA resulting in most areas remaining dry today. A very narrow fgen band in the 850-700mb layer is suggested by the RAP and may overcome the dry sub cloud layer noted on forecast soundings prior to 18z. If this occurs, some sprinkles/flurries or a very isolated shower will be possible mainly along a line from Ames, IA to Peoria, IL. An interesting note is that the 00z LREF still has 40-70% probs of measurable QPF (0.01") whereas the hi-res solutions are closer to 10%. In any case, cloudy skies will keep temperatures at or just below yesterday's highs in the upper 40s/low 50s.

Decreasing clouds and quiet conditions are expected overnight tonight, with lows dropping into the upper 20s/low 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The extended forecast remains on track for unseasonably mild temperatures and very limited precip chances. A strong southern stream wave will track across the southern CONUS this weekend, with its main precip shield becoming more likely to remain to our south. The NBM continues to show 10-30% PoPs mainly south of I-80, however if the 00z global model 850mb theta-e progs verify this is probably too far north and would be lowered in future forecasts. The latest WPC 7 Day QPF forecast would agree with that solution as it only has a few hundredths of an inch across northeast MO and west central IL. We definitely could use the rain though as we have only seen 10-25% of normal precip in the last 30 days per MRCC and as a result could see drought conditions worsen.

On the plus side, unseasonably warm conditions are forecast to continue into next week as a broad upper level ridge sets up early next week across the central CONUS. 850mb temps are progged to rise into the 7 to 11C range early next week, which would be near the daily max per SPC climatology. Some raw model outputs are also not that far off of record highs for Monday 2/16! Our 1st 60+ degree day is likely, especially for areas along and south of I-80 Monday and Tuesday giving us a taste of Spring weather!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 435 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. An upper level shortwave will bring an increase in mid-high level clouds today. However, a dry sub cloud layer to bring mostly virga to the terminals despite an increase in radar returns this morning. That all said, a few flurries/sprinkles may still be possible as this wave moves through prior to 18z primarily at BRL. Winds to remain predominantly southerly through the period under 7kts.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.