textproduct: Quad Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for isolated severe storms tonight. Primary risks are hail and heavy downpours.
- A strong cold front will sweep through the area Thursday night bringing very windy conditions Thursday night and Friday and below normal temperatures. The probability of frost Friday night continues to increase and is now at 60-70%.
- A warm-up commences late this weekend into early next week with temperatures trending to and then above normal.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
A storm system will move through the area tonight and Wednesday bringing rain with embedded thunderstorms. While there is a marginal risk of severe storms tonight, hail and heavy downpours are the primary risks.
Rain will taper off on Wednesday with periods of dry weather Wednesday afternoon.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 141 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Wednesday night through Monday Assessment...a certainty (>98%) of much cooler conditions for the first part of the weekend. Probability of frost Friday night has increased to 60-70%.
The next round of rain with embedded thunderstorms will occur Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A tropical connection with the Gulf and moisture coming off of Simon will increase PWATs into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. These PWAT values have the potential of meeting or exceeding the climatological max for October 15th. Thus heavy rainfall is a given. The area currently favored for the heavy rain is south of I-80.
Very windy conditions will be seen late Thursday night and Friday behind the cold front. Winds atop of the mixed layer are 30-35 knots which would give wind gusts to at least 35 mph on Friday. We will continue to watch this for potential headlines.
Cold Canadian high pressure will settle over the area Friday night bringing light winds and very chilly temperatures. Given the negative delta on temperatures, the probability of frost has increased to 60-70 percent. Headlines for frost are expected later in the week.
A warm-up commences late this weekend into early next week with temperatures trending to and then above normal.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026
Cool front will sweep through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois through 12z/13 ending the LLWS risk but may induce pockets of MVFR CIGS. Potential is there for a narrow band of convection through 19z/13 producing brief MVFR conditions. After 00z/14 moisture over- running the stalled frontal boundary will allow rain to develop with embedded TSRA with CIGS slowly lowering and becoming MVFR.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.
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