textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning continues late tonight through 9 AM Saturday. A Frost Advisory is in effect for the remainder of the area tonight. Frost is possible again Saturday night but not as widespread.

- A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A strong positively tilted upper wave is moving through the Upper Midwest, and positioned over our CWA as of Noon, and this is progressing quickly to the south and east. Cold air aloft has allowed for showers to be scattered through the area since early this morning, and the last of these moving through this afternoon are a bit stronger, with over 40 DBZ indicating downpours, and even possibly a bit of really small hail possible. However, the footprint of those heavy showers remains very very small. After 4 PM, this wave should be east of the region, with downward motion behind it helping scour out the cloud cover as we head into early evening.

Frost and Freezing temperatures are both possible tonight, and no changes are anticipated to the ongoing headlines. Our forecast lows of 30 to 35 remain in the middle of a very tight ensemble distribution, and I see little potential to vary greatly from that. Sadly, this is not expected to kill the bugs, but could damage sensitive plants.

With the loss of cloud cover, Saturday should be a much more pleasant day, though still dealing with a rather cold air mass. Highs in the mid to upper 50s are closer to the upper end of guidance values, but with the dry air in place, we should see the warmer end of guidance verify. Saturday night, light south winds will increase through the night, helping keep lows from getting too cold. Lows in the mid 30s support patchy frost in valley locations, but most spots will not see any impact.

Sunday, the high pressure center will be near the Ohio Valley, with southwest/south winds and sunshine over our area. Lower 60s north, to upper 60s south are forecast, again supported by close guidance clustering. Winds do not appear much above 15 mph in the afternoon, so fire danger does not appear too high. Thankfully, in the days ahead, winds are forecast to remain lighter than Sunday, keeping fire danger at low end values.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Sunday night through Thursday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on temperatures trending above normal.

Sunday night and continuing through the week a general warm- up will be seen with temperatures trending above normal for late October. Quiet weather is expected, with winds remaining below 15 mph most days, and highs remaining in the 70s, with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR will prevail through the period. The gusty north-northwest winds will subside early tonight as high pressure builds in and skies gradually clear out. Expect light and variable winds late tonight into the mid morning on Saturday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076-077-087. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ078-088- 089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ016>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009-010.