textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quiet and cold Thanksgiving Day is expected.

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect area-wide for Friday night through Saturday night. There are moderate to high probabilities (60-90%) for 6 or more inches of snow across the outlook area as a large storm system passes through the Midwest into the Great Lakes. Expect widespread and prolonged impacts to travel due to slippery conditions and reduced visibility.

- Well below normal temperatures are expected early next week with highs only in the teens and 20s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Today through Friday: It will be a chilly and breezy Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 30s and early morning wind chills in the teens. Aside from a few flurries possible, dry conditions are expected with no impacts to travel. High pressure building in from the west along with gradually clearing skies late should allow temperatures to drop into the 20s and teens tonight. The quiet weather will continue on Friday with highs in the low/mid 30s and expect increasing clouds through the day ahead of the approaching winter storm.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Friday Night - Saturday Night:

Confidence continues to increase on a winter storm impacting a large portion of the Midwest, mainly Friday night into early Sunday morning, leading to widespread hazardous travel. The favored track of the low, or model consensus is from eastern Kansas toward the southern portion of Lake Michigan. This system will pull ample Gulf moisture northward into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with PWATs reaching 0.50-0.60"+. This looks to be a long duration event as an elongated, neutrally tilted mid-level trough and several embedded vorticity maxima traverse the area over the course of a 24-30 hour period. At the surface, an inverted trough is forecast to shift into the region from the southwest Friday night and then pivot over the area as the surface low tracks across northern Missouri/far SE Iowa and heads toward Chicago or points just to the southeast. The bulk of the steady precipitation looks to be near and downstream of the surface low in a zone of persistent isentropic lift, upper jet divergence and PVA. Since it's an open wave aloft, models are not developing much of a deformation zone NW of the surface low, although this could change if the system were to strengthen further.

Latest ensemble guidance has continued to increase snowfall probabilities. The NBM 24 hr probabilities for 6" or more range between 60-90%+, even the 8" probs are quite high at 40-80%, lowest in the far south and highest along and north of the I-80 corridor. Therefore had enough confidence on this shift to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the entire outlook area. While it's too early to get into exact snowfall amounts, if the wetter models verify, like the EC deterministic and ensemble mean (QPF between 0.70 - 1.00") amounts of 8-10"+ are possible for parts of the area. With that said, it's still early and there is plenty of time for the details to change.

The model consensus track from eastern Kansas toward the far southern tip of Lake Michigan would keep most of the outlook area on the cold side of this system and the p-type as all snow. The exception may be across the far southern counties as the broad surface low could track across this region and pull slightly warmer air northward (temps reaching the mid 30s) by Saturday PM, leading to a rain/snow mix. But this would be after a period of moderate to heavy snow Friday PM into Saturday AM.

For timing, models are in good agreement on steady snow starting Friday night and continuing through the day Saturday into Saturday night. With temperatures in the 20s Friday night the snow will quickly begin to accumulate, leading to slippery conditions. The initial round of WAA and 850-700mb frontogenesis could result in a quick increase in the intensity of the snow Friday night into early Saturday morning. So we'll have to watch this period for some heavier snow rates, potentially up to 1"/hr over portions of the area.

Sunday On: Well below normal temperatures are expected into early next week with the widespread fresh snowpack across the region. NBM highs are in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits above/below zero.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A large area of MVFR stratus clouds across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois will continue to break up through the early/mid morning, with ceilings returning to VFR. Additional patches of low clouds could drop in from the N/NW and potentially reach CID/DBQ later today. Breezy NW winds are expected into this evening.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078- 087>089-098-099. IL...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034- 035. MO...Winter Storm Watch from late Friday night through late Saturday night for MOZ009-010.