textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of cold fronts pushing down across the region will make for seasonally cooler air across the area for much of the week ahead with highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in 50s to low 60s.

- There may be a few showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday but the next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms still appears to be on Wednesday as wave energy arrives in northwest flow aloft.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper level trough oriented east-west across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with convection draped along a slow-moving cold front from the Great Lakes through the central Plains. As of 1 AM, this front has passed through the CWA, leaving behind isolated post-frontal showers east of a line from Dubuque to Ottumwa. These showers will continue moving east through the early morning hours as this trough scoops across the Upper midwest, eventually exiting the CWA by 8 AM. Following their passage, northwesterly flow will take hold, leading to a cool and breezy day. Lows this morning are expected in the mid to upper 50s following cold advection behind the front. Highs will reach into the low to mid 70s despite strong mixing, and may be further limited by a band of scattered to broken diurnal cumulus during peak heating. In addition, strong mixing will support northwesterly surface winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 25-30 mph, during the day.

Past this evening, the story turns to multiple upper level shortwaves embedded in the northwesterly flow. The first of these is expected late tonight into early Monday morning, though limited moisture return given the northwesterly regime will keep any rainfall chances at/near zero. This cold reinforcement overnight, coupled with clear skies and weak winds, will allow lows overnight into Monday morning to drop into the low 50s, with some areas dipping into the upper 40s. Otherwise, another cool but pleasant day is expected Monday, with the main difference from Sunday being not as breezy. A second shortwave will pass through Monday afternoon and evening, though once again will be dry given the lack of abundant moisture.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The beginning of the extended period, similar to the end of the short term, is marked by the passage of several shortwaves embedded in the upper level flow, with the next on Tuesday. While moisture will be difficult to come by, with IVT tracks pointing to extended travel from the Hudson Bay or the Gulf, there is a chance for light rainfall, with a 65% chance of being less than 0.25 inches.

Following the low chances of rain on Tuesday, Wednesday brings higher chances for not only rain, but also severe thunderstorms as a stronger shortwave moves through the flow. Ahead of this shortwave, strong southerly flow will advect moisture into the central and northern Plains before moving eastward ahead of the shortwave. With sustained northwesterly flow, some questions remain in how much moisture advection will be possible, though the majority of deterministic models suggest that moisture will not be an issue. This, coupled with favorable mid- and low-level jet dynamics, suggests that if there is enough instability, severe thunderstorms could be possible. Greater clarity over the next several days, especially with regard to moisture and instability, will help establish the potential with this system.

Once this shortwave moves through, a quieter period is in store through the end of the week as low level ridging sets up to the south of the CWA. This will block moisture from the Gulf for a few days before some moisture makes its way northward by Saturday, with this being the next potential period for rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Post frontal, F-Gen related rain showers are ending around 11Z just prior to the next set of forecasts beginning at 12Z today. VFR weather is forecast through Monday morning, though this will be periods of clearing skies early, then a period of VFR 4000-5000 ft cigs arriving from the north mid morning, then quickly thinning out again a few hours later. Some gusty winds will also accompany the mid day hours, all from the northwest.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.