textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall is expected on Thursday. The threat for severe weather and flash flooding is low at this time.

- Seasonally strong cold front to come through late this week, bringing windy conditions and cool nights. There will be the chance for frost as we head into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A quiet evening is ahead of us, with seasonal temperatures and mostly cloudy conditions. Although, the quiet will be short-lived, as we see weak ridging move east of the area and llvl southwesterly flow increases over the area. This pattern change is resulting from a wave digging in from the north-central CONUS, phasing with a wave ejecting off of the central Rockies. Not only will this induce southwesterly flow ahead of the stronger wave, but bouts of energy will also pass overhead tonight through Thursday. As such, plenty of forcing will provide favorable conditions for widespread rainfall and some embedded thunderstorms. Unseasonably high moisture content will also be in place throughout the area. This is due to the tropical connection with the Gulf and moisture coming from Simon in the eastern Pacific. PWATs will increase into the 1.50-2.00" range, placing us near/above the climatological max for the day. Widespread light to moderate rain will pass through, with some brief heavier bouts of rain possible, especially with thunderstorms. Overall, accumulations are expected to remain lower, as this seems to be more of a stratiform/showery rainfall event rather than convectively driven. Thus, we are generally forecasting <1.00" of rain for the whole area, with some possibly only seeing around 0.50". There remains some uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall will fall, as guidance continues to vary greatly between areas north/south of Interstate 80. Latest guidance has been favoring areas north of the interstate for seeing upwards to an inch of rain, with those south seeing around 0.50". Although, confidence is lower on that right now.

Cold front associated with the system will pass southeast of the area Thursday night, leaving us in the post-frontal airmass. This airmass will be quite different than we have seen in some time, with windy and cooler conditions moving in. We are looking at gusty northwest winds Thursday night, owing to moderate cold advection behind the front, with gusts upwards to 20-30+ mph. Temperatures will also cool into the mid 40s overnight throughout the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Friday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty of windy conditions through Friday with frost Friday night. The probability of a freeze is at 20-30 percent.

A strong cold front will sweep through the area Thursday night bringing windy conditions late Thursday night through mid-day Friday. All models show a trop fold moving through the area during this time frame which will increase winds. The models generally agree the trop fold will be down to 400-500 mb but some solutions have the trop fold as sub 500 mb. Overall, we are looking at sustained winds between 15-25 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. Confidence is lower on the higher end of the wind gust range, but cannot be ruled out. Headlines are not expected at this time.

Cold Canadian high pressure bringing the frost potential to much of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Cloud cover will be the key to how cold it will get. The potential for freezing temperatures is also there, especially north of Highway 30. Right now the probability of freezing temperatures is at 20-30 percent. Late this weekend and into next week, guidance continues to favor above normal temperatures returning to the area, along with mostly dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Conditions will deteriorate late tonight into Thursday as a large storm system approaches the area bringing with it periods of rain. Expect MVFR ceilings through much of tonight, quickly decreasing to IFR (500-900 ft AGL) early Thursday AM. Scattered light showers or patchy drizzle is possible tonight; however, it appears the more numerous showers and even widespread light/moderate rain will hold off until later into Thursday morning to midday. The rain will likely last through the afternoon as well, becoming more showery in nature with potential for some heavier downpours. A cold front is expected to reach CID late Thursday afternoon, abruptly turning winds around to the northwest.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.