textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible through sunset. There is a low risk for brief funnel clouds as convection initially develops.

- Humid conditions will persist through the week but will not be oppressive like last week.

- Rain chances return the second half of the week with the relatively better chances late Wednesday night through Thursday evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Satellite trends through mid-afternoon show diurnal convection developing that is being aided mainly by a vort max dropping south from Wisconsin. Said convection will reach its peak coverage between 3 and 530 PM at 10-25%; in essence isolated to widely scattered.

After sunset the humid conditions will continue. Given the high moisture levels in the atmosphere and light winds, some patchy fog is expected late tonight into Monday morning.

Monday will be mainly dry with slightly lower humidity levels. Some models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area that may or may not produce a rogue shower or storm.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Tuesday night and Wednesday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of rising temperatures and humidity levels

The model consensus has dry conditions as high pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes and southerly flow returns. Humidity levels will slowly creep up as moisture is advected north in advance of an approaching storm system.

Temperatures should be near or slightly warmer than normal.

Wednesday night through Thursday night Assessment...low to medium (30-50%) confidence on rain chances

The models show a storm system moving through the upper Midwest that will drag a cool front through the area. There are some timing differences between the various models but the model consensus is highlighting the late Wednesday night through Thursday evening time frame as the relatively better chances for rain. The model consensus currently rain chances at 30 to 60 percent.

However, moisture for the rain is mainly associated with the system. While there is Gulf moisture attempting to get into the area, it is arriving via Mexico and the Western High Plains; plenty of time for it to be intercepted by storm development much further to the south and west. Additionally, the MJO is currently in phase 6 working its way to phase 7 which generally is associated with slightly below normal rainfall chances.

Thus it is possible that rain chances may show a slightly negative delta as the first half of the week progresses.

Friday through Sunday Assessment...very low (10-20%) confidence on rain chances

The global models show that northwest flow aloft will dominate the second half of the week and into the weekend. The global models show several weak disturbances in the flow aloft moving through the area on roughly a daily basis. Thus if there is sufficient moisture available some isolated diurnal convection cannot fully be ruled out.

Right now the model consensus has 20-30 percent chances for rain Friday into Friday evening. This appears to be associated with a disturbance acting upon what remnant moisture from Thursday is still available. Saturday into Sunday the model consensus has mainly dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much, if not all of the of the TAF period. Light northeast winds will remain through the night, becoming near calm at times, increasing to 5-10 KTs by 18z Monday. There will be a low-end chance for patchy fog tonight, especially in river valleys. Although, confidence remains low on the potential (<20%), along with coverage. Opted to leave out of TAFs at this time and will monitor and update if confidence increases. Otherwise, no other sig wx is expected at this time.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Widespread 48-hr rainfall amounts between 3-5 inches were common across central IA northeast towards Waterloo. Some higher amounts in excess of 9 inches were reported particularly in the headwaters of the Skunk River. These amounts fell in a short amount of time resulting in significant runoff in most of the Iowa tributary rivers in eastern IA. Thankfully, most of the points in eastern IA were well below flood stage prior to this rain and within bank rises are forecast. The exceptions are the Iowa River at Marengo, the Wapsi River near De Witt and the North Skunk River near Sigourney. Flood Warnings are in effect with a Major flood forecast for De Witt by Wednesday afternoon. See the latest flood statements for details. No appreciable rainfall is expected through the upcoming week, so routed flow will be forecast.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.