textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick dusting of light snow, mainly in the Highway 20 corridor, Saturday morning with minimal impacts.

- A significant winter storm Sunday night into Monday with extremely strong winds creating blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions. Significant travel impacts during the Monday AM commute. A winter storm watch remains in affect for areas along/north of I-80.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out 5) and slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Winds will slowly diminish the remainder of the afternoon and overnight. However, breezy conditions will be seen both tonight and into Saturday.

On Saturday, an elevated band of forcing and moisture will move across the northern half of the area. There is plenty of dry air in the low levels so the overall band of saturation looks to be quite narrow and confined to the Highway 20 corridor. The potential is there for a quick dusting of snow, mainly from Dubuque east Saturday morning with dry conditions during the afternoon. Attention then turns to the next system.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Saturday night through Monday Assessment...A certainty (>98%) of a significant storm system

All models have a significant storm system moving through the Midwest Saturday night through Monday. New data indicates the storm will be strengthening as it moves through the area. When this situation occurs, the models play catch-up as they generally lag behind on all sensible weather parameters.

Saturday night strong southerly winds will transport moisture north from the Gulf. Widespread lift aloft from the approaching system will allow precipitation to break out across the area. The precipitation may initially start out as a rain/snow mix north of Interstate 80 but will quickly change over to all rain as the warmer air arrives. Although low, there is the potential for a few rumbles of thunder south of I-80 before sunrise Sunday.

On Sunday, the storm center will move through the area. Rain will be seen across the area Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the cold front and along the track of the passing low. During the passage of the main low and front, there is a risk of severe storms. The primary risk looks to be damaging winds and the most likely time frame looks to be a 6 hour time frame from 12 PM to 6 PM.

Once the cold front passes any one location, temperatures will rapidly fall in the strengthening cold advection. Areas west of a Dubuque, IA to Ottumwa, IA line will see the rain change over to snow between 3 and 7 PM. During the change over there may be a brief period of sleet.

Very windy conditions will be seen Sunday, especially east of the Mississippi. Winds could gust up to 45 mph.

Sunday night into Monday is prime time for the storm system.

The change over to snow along/east of the Mississippi will occur early Sunday evening with the entire area seeing all snow by 9-10 PM. Snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour will be possible, especially late Sunday night to around sunrise Monday.

As the system strengthens Sunday night winds will continue to increase. By sunrise Monday the models are suggesting a 12 mb gradient across the forecast area which supports wind gusts of at least 50 mph Sunday night into Monday morning. Winds of this strength will fracture the usually large dendrite snowflakes associated with the heavier snowfall rates into much smaller ones. The downside of smaller flakes is there will be more of them resulting in a more widespread blowing snow. Thus there is a high probability of near white-out conditions in rural and open areas.

Regardless, there will be significant travel impacts on Monday, especially for the Monday morning commute. The travel impacts potentially could go into the Monday evening commute.

The current watch headlines look good and will likely transition to a winter storm warning in the next 24 hours. Given the data available this far out, there is roughly a 33-40% probability of going beyond a winter storm warning to a blizzard warning.

Additional headlines south of the current watch may be needed as the overall track and strength of the storm becomes more certain.

Snowfall amounts are more tricky given the fractured nature of the snowflakes. Right now amounts in the current watch area look to range from 3 to 7 inches of snow. South of I-80, amounts look to range from 1 to 3 inches.

Although snow amounts are lower than the generally accepted criteria for a winter storm, the high winds will make up the difference and help create the higher level of impacts to the area.

Monday night through Friday Assessment...High (>80%) confidence of a warm-up the second half of the week. Medium (40-60%) confidence of snow Tuesday night.

Northwest flow aloft will persist through the week but a building upper level high will allow temperatures to moderate. After an initial cold start, a rapid warm-up will be seen the second half of the week.

Tuesday morning will be very cold with windy conditions creating wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero.

Outside of a dry week, the models have an upper level disturbance moving through the area Tuesday night. Although moisture is not overly great, the previous cold temperatures combined with the forcing looks to be enough to generate some accumulating snow.

As for amounts, an educated guess is an inch or less for the area. The lower amounts would be south of I-80 with the higher amounts north of I-80.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Considerable low level mechanical turbulence from wind gusts will be seen through 00z/14 with brief periods of MVFR CIGS north of I-80. After 00z/14 winds will diminish further and shift around to the east northeast by sunrise Saturday. Potential for a brief period of light snow north of Highway 30 12z-18z/14 but CIGS expected to remain VFR across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068. IL...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018. MO...None.