textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant warm afternoons and cool mornings will continue into next week, with little to no chance of any rain.

- Drought conditions likely developing and persisting through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

As expected, showers and thunderstorms last evening over WI fizzled out by 930pm as the storms lost their support and moved into drier air. 06z RAP analysis depicted a large 1025mb surface high centered over Ontario encompassing the northern Great Lakes. A backdoor cool front was just beginning to enter our eastern CWA over northwest IL, with dewpoints in the 40s reported behind it over northeast IL. Temperatures at 1am, were in the upper 60s/low 70s.

Another beautiful day with comfortable humidity is in store for the region, as the aforementioned cool front makes its way west through the CWA. With a very dry airmass in place, passing high clouds, and mixing down similar 850mb temps/winds as we had yesterday, temperatures should rebound quickly into the 70s this morning and top out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon.

Tonight...high pressure builds into the region as a weak wave remains well to our west over the central Plains. Dewpoints to drop into the 40s area-wide and with mostly clear skies, will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s. Time to give the AC a break and open those windows!

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 124 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Little to no change in the extended, with continued dry and warm conditions through the period. Highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 40s/50s can be expected each day with comfortable humidity levels.

A weak shortwave will track across the central Plains on Friday and lift into western IA, leading to an increase in clouds. Most model solutions have less than 15% PoPs, with the exception of the 00z deterministic ECMWF. With such a dry airmass in place, thinking this solution is an outlier and that the dry easterly flow from the 1023mb high over the Great Lakes will win out and keep any precip to our west through at least Saturday. Also of note, the NBM has minRH values below 40% and dewpoints under 60 degrees each day through the extended.

Ensemble and deterministic guidance continue to support the Omega block to remain through the middle of next week. The west coast upper low will eventually lift northeast over MT and southwest Canada early next week and progress eastward allowing for the ridge to start to break down (height falls). A semi-zonal flow will result with a few waves tracking over the northern Plains and upper Midwest that could bring us some rain albeit not likely beneficial. As a result, drought conditions are likely to worsen/expand over the coming weeks. In addition, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day precip outlooks for the Climate Prediction Center have 70-80% combined probabilities of near/below normal precipitation going through the 1st week of June. Unfortunately, it will be a while before liquid gold (rain) comes back into the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. East to east-northeast winds will be common today, generally around 10 knots, under continued high clouds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.