textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Aside from isolated drizzle or light rain on Friday, the end of the work week will feature quiet weather with temperatures below normal.

- Pattern change will result in increasing temperatures each day this weekend, bringing above normal temperatures back to the area on Sunday.

- A more active pattern will take shape next week, especially midweek and beyond. Thus, temperatures and precipitation chances will continue to trend upwards through the next work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

High pressure over the Great Lakes Region will keep us under weak easterly flow tonight, with a mix of clouds and cool temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Otherwise, we will remain largely dry through the night.

Tomorrow, the surface high will slowly start to push east, as two waves push in from the southwest. Our forecast area will fall between the two waves, which may help to keep us largely dry through much of the day. Although, with light southeasterly flow working in aloft, we will see the potential for drizzle to light rain midday and through the afternoon as these shortwaves pass to our northwest and southeast. The best chances to see a drizzle or light shower will be in our east and west, with much of the central CWA staying away from sufficient forcing/moisture. With little forcing over the area, any showery activity should remain isolated to widely scattered, with low accumulation. Otherwise, it will be a quiet end to the work week with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures increasing to around 70.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 223 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

This weekend, upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS, inducing upper level southwesterly flow. Flow in the llvls remains weaker through much of Saturday, with an increase in WAA being more noticeable on Sunday. Thus, Saturday will features temperatures near to slightly above normal, with better WAA Sunday resulting in temperatures around 80 throughout. In such a flow pattern, weak disturbances will pass through the area this weekend, which may result in a brief shower or isolated storm. Overall chances for this remain low (about 20-30% or less), largely later Saturday into Sunday. Any precipitation will be light, <0.10". Otherwise a mild weekend will be in store, with a mix of clouds/sun.

Late Sunday into Monday, a wave will stall out over the south- central CONUS, where the cutoff upper low will remain through the start of the work week. As it sits and gyrates over the south, upper level flow becomes more weak and zonal overhead through Tuesday, with the cutoff low set to move north towards the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will pull some forcing/moisture into the area, resulting in increasing PoPs. Showers and storms may result that night, largely in the form of stratiform rain with some embedded thunderstorms. Although, there remains uncertainty on the track of the low, with the EURO keeping the precipitation shield south and east of the area and the remainder of guidance at least introducing rain to portions of the area. From there, much uncertainty remains on the forecast. For the most part, global models are showing a deepening trof over the Rockies, with ridging east. This would result in a more active pattern, with southerly flow further increasing temperatures and moisture. Thus, precipitation chances will also be on the rise midweek and beyond. Although, specifics on timing and amounts are uncertain now due to widely varying solutions in guidance.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light easterly winds around 10 KTs. Otherwise, a mix of low-mid clouds will remain, but will largely be >3500 ft. No sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.