textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick moving system will bring mainly an inch or less of snow to the area tonight. There is a 10-20% probability for freezing drizzle to develop south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line as the snow beings to taper off after midnight.

- Windy, very warm and dry conditions on Friday will result in an elevated fire weather risk mainly south and east of a line from Dubuque, IA to Williamsburg, IA.

- Split flow over the CONUS that favors northwest flow will be seen through the weekend. Weak systems in the flow will bring the prospects of some precipitation to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Quiet conditions will be seen through sunrise as skies continue to slowly clear. The quiet conditions will continue through the morning hours with clouds starting to increase ahead of the next system.

Wednesday afternoon and night continue to be interesting. First, forecast soundings of the atmosphere show a very deep dry layer so it will take time for a top-down saturation to occur before precipitation reaches the surface. However, the models suggest a rapid top-down saturation occurring over a period of 3-4 hours after 4 PM this afternoon. Radar returns will likely show considerable echoes aloft for a good chunk of the afternoon before precipitation is realized at the surface. Overall, this event looks to occur over a 6 to 8 hour time period with all precipitation ending prior to sunrise Thursday.

Based on the rate of top-down saturation, light snow will quickly develop during the second half of the evening commute. With a continued slow trend to the south, areas south of Highway 30 are favored to see snow tonight.

Since the system is an open wave and has trended a bit further south, snowfall amounts will be light. Most areas will see amounts of one half inch or less. The exception will be a narrow band around 1 inch of snow (possibly up to 1.5 inches in spots). The location of this band may shift further south, but, it currently looks to run from near Galesburg, IL west northwest to near Grinnell, IA.

Starting around midnight, the models are indicating a loss of ice nuclei occurring as the snow begins to end. Indeed, the HREF is pegging areas south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line with a signal for freezing precipitation. Given this signal, some freezing drizzle has been added to the winter mix across our far south.

Right now we will hold off on any headlines for the freezing drizzle potential but will pass on concerns to the incoming shift.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Thursday through Friday night Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of a significant warm up

The model consensus has dry conditions Thursday through Friday night with a significant warm-up for the area.

Thursday could be interesting. There is respectable isentropic upglide with plenty of clouds across the area during the morning. IF that upglide is into low clouds then there would be a potential for another round of freezing drizzle. This overall weak signal will need to be watched carefully over the next 36 hours.

Once clouds break up Thursday afternoon temperatures will soar with the brisk southwest winds across the area. Highs currently look to be 5-10 degrees above normal. However, if clouds remain across the area then temperatures would be cooler by at least 5 degrees.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week as southwest winds gust up to 30 mph ahead of an approaching front. High temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal but will remain below the records for February 27th.

The downside to the warm temperatures will be the elevated fire risk across much of the area. Like this past Tuesday, the elevated fire weather risk is generally south and east of a line from Dubuque, IA to Williamsburg, IA.

Saturday/Saturday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on a weak system moving through the northern part of the area

All models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through the Midwest in the northern stream Saturday. Moisture will be the key but the models have generally been pointing to areas north of Highway 30 as having the better chances for any precipitation.

Indeed the model consensus has 35-50% chances for light snow in this area. The consensus also has 20-30% chances for light snow or a rain/snow mix south of the I-80 corridor. While there are ensemble members showing this potential, the big picture indicates the better forcing is across the northern third of the area. I would not be surprised to see precipitation chances south of I-80 to slowly decrease over the next several days.

Saturday night will be dry with seasonably cold temperatures as another high pressure moves through the area.

Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on two weather systems. Low to medium (20-35%) confidence on precipitation chances

The models agree that there will be two systems moving through the Midwest. However, the split flow pattern across the CONUS raises questions regarding regarding the track of each system.

There appears to be reasonable agreement that the first system will impact the area Sunday into Sunday night. The model consensus has a 30-50% chance of snow for the area with a possible mix across the extreme south. The track of the eventual system will be important but from the larger synoptic scale, the south half of the area is favored with the higher snow chances.

After Sunday night, the models diverge with the second system. The differences appear to be traceable to the strength and position of Canadian high pressures dropping south into the northern Plains and the Great Lakes. If the highs are stronger and move further south than indicated then the potential for dry conditions will increase.

Right now the model consensus has 30-50% chances for snow Sunday and Sunday night that drop down to 20-35% chances for snow or a rain/snow mix Monday through Tuesday. The continuous precipitation chances appear to be tied to the much wetter GFS/GEFS solutions. The other models and their ensembles are somewhat drier and suggest potential breaks in the precipitation.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 454 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Quick moving system to impact parts of eastern Iowa and west central Illinois after 22z/25 with a band of light snow with IFR conditions. After 08z/26 loss of ice nuclei in the clouds increases the prospects of FZDZ south of a KOTM to KGBG line with potential impacts at KBRL. A weak signal is now developing suggesting the potential for another round of FZDZ north of I-80 starting around 12z/26.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.