textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will remain through the week, with much of the area remaining in the 40s through the days and mid 20s to low 30s at night.

- Precipitation chances will remain limited through the first half of the week, with increasing chances the second half of the week and beyond.

- Extended forecasts continue to favor above normal temperatures and precipitation into the next work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Weak upper level wave passes through the Great Lakes region today, where we saw modest LLVL southwesterly flow ahead of it through the day as the thermal ridge builds overhead. Warm advection has resulted, with temperatures ranging from the low 40s in our northeast to 50s in our southwest. These temperatures are well above normal, which will continue again tomorrow. By noon today, many in the area were already near/over 40. Moisture remains limited in the LLVLs, with better forcing well north of the area. Thus, we will remain dry as this wave/front passes. Although, we will see passing clouds through the day, which should largely remain in the mid-upper levels. We will continue to see southerly surface winds through the evening and into the night, with a cold front passing through the area after midnight, shifting winds northwesterly. With that, along with some cloud cover, temperatures are not expected to drop off too much tonight. Temperatures will largely remain in the mid 30s tonight, which is well above normal. To put this into perspective, the minimum temperatures forecast tonight are actually near/above our normal maximum temperatures for this time of the year!

Cool and dry advection will kick in behind the system and last through Tuesday, allowing the thermal ridging to weaken and resulting in slightly cooler temperatures. With that said, we are still forecasting temperatures well above normal, with much of the area in the mid-upper 40s. Main difference will be with the increased surface winds out of the northwest, keeping a little chill in the air. We will continue to see some passing clouds through the day on Tuesday, but will decrease in coverage through the day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wednesday is forecast to be a quiet weather day, as high pressure moves through the area. We will remain mostly clear through the day, with increasing clouds late in the evening hours and beyond. Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild, with mid 40s remaining on forecast and light northwesterly winds. Nighttime temperatures will remain in the mid-upper 20s. Some in our south will be around 30, which is unseasonably mild for a mid-February night.

Thursday and through the weekend, our upper level pattern becomes more active. Embedded in the flow will be bouts of vorticity that will pass through the region, which is highlighted well amongst guidance. These waves will hold the potential to bring precipitation to the area if we manage to get some moisture ahead of them. The first wave to pass through the area will be on Thursday. This wave will bring a clipper system through the area, where we see our first chances for precipitation. Moisture remains questionable, limiting confidence on QPF. Although, much of guidance at least brings in light precipitation, especially for areas along/north of Interstate 80. The 12z NAM has come in with more QPF than the global models, which leads to a forecast challenge. Temperatures will be borderline, making precipitation type a question. Although, model soundings for areas along/north of Interstate 80 indicate temperature profiles favorable for snow, with those south of that area potentially seeing a mix or rain (if they saturate). Latest NBM comes in with the higher PoPs pulled farther north than the previous forecast package, which generally follows our train of thought. Otherwise, with uncertainty on moisture availability, will refrain from further details regarding accumulation potential. As of right now, it is best to know that we will have the chance for precipitation that day, with snowfall potential in the north, but uncertainty remains on further details.

Our next chance will be with a strong wave this weekend, which is currently forecast to eject off of the southern Rockies and trek east-northeast towards the Ohio Valley. This system has been shown by long term guidance for a few days now, but alter greatly from run to run. With that said, this system still exists in guidance, but deterministic runs keep this system south of the area (dry forecast locally). Ensemble guidance does pull the system farther north, introducing precipitation chances to the area Saturday into Sunday. This is currently reflected with the NBM PoPs, which we will hold onto at this point until confidence increases on an outcome (wet or dry). Stay tuned on the forecast for this weekend, as a northerly trend in this system would introduce more PoPs to the area, which could be in the form of wintry weather. Otherwise, temperatures will largely remain in the low-mid 40s this weekend and beyond, with CPC continuing to favor above normal temperatures into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Generally a VFR TAF cycle with sfc to LLVL winds being the main fcst factors. South to southwesterly sfc winds will be in the 10-15 KT range until they weaken some and start to veer toward morning time with a frontal passage sweeping in acrs the area. Will keep the LLVL wind shear going for much of this evening and into the overnight as southwesterly winds at 2K FT AGL range from 35-45+ KTS. Behind the FROPA, northwest sfc winds will gust up to 28 KTs on Tuesday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.