textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures will be experience again tonight, especially north, but with far less wind, resulting in wind chills generally remaining above -20F.

- Snow Tuesday night, especially north of I-80, with light accumulations at cold enough temperatures to create slippery road conditions.

- Even colder temperatures, including some highs only around zero, becoming probable Friday and Saturday behind a reinforcing cold front on Thursday night. Teens below zero are possible!

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Prior to Noon, windy conditions remained over the entire area, with temperatures struggling to reach zero, meanwhile, suspended ice crystals were passing through in narrow stripes of low clouds, likely the remaining horizontal convective rolls from the upstream blizzard yesterday. After Noon so far, winds are very slowly decreasing, with temperatures rising to the single digits to lower teens. A weak surface high pressure is forecast to move into eastern Iowa this evening, resulting in quickly dropping winds and with any clear skies, we'll drop back near zero. There is a very good chance of Aurora, but looking upstream, mid clouds are already developing in the Dakotas, and should arrive not long after sunset, thus, beyond the cold temperatures, these may keep us from having a viewing of the potential aurora, at least until late tonight, when the clouds clear out again.

Winds will be generally under 10 mph tonight, and at most hours, under 6 mph, thus wind chills should only be -20 or colder in the north on a patchy level, with the more widespread values of zero to -10.

Tuesday, initial sunshine and light winds will provide decent heating of the cold air in place, and highs should rebound nicely to the low 30s south to lower 20s north. The main difference is having no snow cover south, while the north has 1-3 inches.

An approaching zonal track clipper is anticipated Tuesday evening and overnight, with another band of snow expected to move through Iowa, northern Illinois, and Wisconsin. The track of this clipper has shifted north in nearly all CAMs, while remaining south on the EC and to the lesser degree, the GFS. The NBM is remaining in the chance to lower end likely (30-60% range), while the forcing suggesting 80%+ in the north. I've increased pops north of Highway 30 for this reason, while keeping the lower %s near I-80 and south. In all, the far north could be 1-3 inches on this event, while south of that, much lower amounts are expected as saturation is less likely to be consistent through the event, and amounts of a trace to 1 inch is most likely. As mentioned last night, much of the saturated lift in models that do have snow, show it in the DGZ, thus, this snow should be rather fluffy in nature, and accumulate easily.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Zooming out big picture, the hemispheric satellite and analysis maps paint a clear picture of entrenched below normal temperatures for the region, with reinforcing cold shots. The long wave upper trough currently extends almost the width of the continent and as far equatorward as the Mid South. Last night's 00Z soundings had northerly flow from 850 mb upward from our sounding through northern Canada's soundings. What all this means is that this will be a tough pattern to shake in the next two weeks, if not longer, and the region is susceptible to colder air shots. The active zone of substantial precipitation- making systems of note will tend to be south of the area, however lower amplitude light snow makers, enough to cause problems with cold and winds, will traverse the Midwest. Timing of these and specific tracks are low confidence three plus days out.

Beyond that, details in any clippers are more muddy, however the temperature details have become clearer (and colder!). First for precipitation, the trend over the last 48 hours has actually been less of a signal of clippers of note, or for any overrunning precipitation concerns (that has shifted well south). To express that, the NBM probabilities of >0.1 inch of liquid equivalent for a 24 hour period from Wednesday-Sunday are lower than 20 percent. Now for temperatures, as already noted the background pattern supports cold reinforcement and that is exactly what happens. A pronounced 500 mb low is forecast to carve into the trough with heights forecast 3-4 sigma below normal over central Canada into the northern Great Lakes (impressive for the coldest time of year). That will result in an arctic front sometime on or around Thursday night it appears. Tough to tell if it would come with as much wind fanfare as last night's arctic front, but right now it looks like it would not due to less baroclinicity. However, the cold air behind it will be more pronounced and an arctic high pressure of a stout 1040+ mb settles in nearby early in the weekend. With 850 mb temperatures forecast to be -25C to -30C (bottom few percentile for January), it is becoming more likely based on NBM probability trends that nighttime lows Friday and potentially Saturday nights will be in the negative double digits, and highs both days likely to struggle to get much above if even above zero, especially north where some snow cover should exist. On the snow cover note, some model membership in the NBM can struggle with that, and some modification of the arctic air is probable. But even if temperatures do not end up as cold as deterministically forecast now, the high confidence in well below normal temperatures at the coldest time of the year is a key message.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR will continue through the period with relatively light winds and good low-level visibility.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

On the Rock River just downstream of Joslin, or more proper, near the railroad bridge immediately downstream of the I-80 bridge, continues to have a ice formation related ice jam being reported. This jam has brought elevated stages at Joslin, and a report of just out of bank flooding near Cleveland IL. At this time, we're considering a Flood Watch for this area of the Rock River.

The signal has strengthened for the forecast area to remain mostly below freezing the next ten days, including a couple substantial cold bouts of subzero air -- the current one and late this week into the weekend. Ice has rapidly developed on some area rivers in the last 48 hours, including the Lower Rock River. More ice development and at an even quicker rate will be favored during the coldest stretches, and could support some freeze up jams especially in favored locations such as the Lower Rock. Streamflows are currently near the 50th percentile for January (i.e. near the long term normal). If they were higher, that would really raise concerns right now. Keep an eye out for more honed in messaging and Flood Warnings if we receive specific reports of developing impactful ice jams.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.