textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of storms are still expected through this weekend and into early next week. Strong to severe storms are possible each day through Tuesday in or near the local forecast area, with low confidence on areal coverage through Sunday.

- After warm and more humid conditions continue into early next week, a strong cold front sweeping through the region sometime Tuesday to bring cooler conditions by mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Ongoing thunderstorm clusters and associated MCV will roll out of most of the local area after 12z this morning. Then the convective debris will look to clear allowing temps to warm into the 80s, while a weak quasi-stationary boundary undulates generally from west- southwest to easst-northeast acrs the area. Storms could fester acrs portions of central IL this morning into early afternoon. Then the wait will be on for the next short wave or MCV to roll toward the area in broad west-southwesterly steering flow acrs the central CONUS.

One such vort max looks to approach out of the central plains by this evening, sparking at least isolated storm development in or near the DVN CWA by late afternoon and early evening especially near the boundary with local MLCAPEs of 1500 to near 3000 J/Kg with highs in the 80s and DPTs in the 60s. More optimum storm development or MCS initiation area will look to occur just to the lee of the approaching wave acrs southwest into central IA this evening, according to mass feature placement by most models except the 00z ECMWF which places the active convection development region a half state to the south from northeast KS to acrs central and northern MO. The further north case would allow for storm activity to zipper eastward into our area of concern, with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall the main threats with a PWAT feed of 1.4 to 1.8 inches(large hail a secondary and more uncertain concern). The southern development scenario of the Euro would still have some secondary showers and storms drift up our way overnight, but be less significant in both severe and heavy rainfall potential.

Whatever activity occurs will look to move northeastward out of the area(probably accompanied with another MCV) Sunday morning. Saturday night low temps in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Sunday...After the morning convective debris clears, breezy south winds and sunshine to make for a warm day with temps well up in the 80s and mid 60 DPTs. Much of the rest of the day to be dry and capped by an EML into the evening. The MCS generation grounds look to take place out acrs the MO RVR Valley and western MN Sunday evening. Will then have to watch for a resultant MCS to propagate east- southeastward toward the local area late Sunday night into Monday morning possibly still with a damaging wind threat if it is maintaining cold pool mechanics.

Monday through Friday...A stronger cold front will look to organize upstream acrs the plains and Upper MO RVR Valley on Monday. We may still be dealing with morning convection or lingering MCS out of late Sunday night, and this will impact what happens for the rest of the day. The stronger storm regeneration may focus out along that feature Monday and Monday night, with lingering remnants sweeping this way with the front by Tuesday morning. Uncertainty is still there with regards to any severe threat Tuesday, which is largely dependent upon the frontal timing and may be a larger risk just off to the southeast of the local area. Then post-frontal cooler and more seasonable conditions look to settle in mid next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Besides the showers and thunderstorms, mainly VFR conditions will continue for much of the TAF cycle. There may be some MVFR fog in spots before dawn where the winds go light convergent, and the overnight convective clusters should be moving east of the TAF sites after 12z. Rather light south winds on Saturday with VFR skies, and then there will be the chance for isolated thunderstorms developing late Saturday afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.