textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will be seen mainly this afternoon in northern areas. Accumulations will range from a trace to around 1.5 inches in the Highway 20 corridor. Winds gusting up to 40 mph will be seen tonight that could result in patchy drifting snow.

- Dangerous cold will be seen tonight into Monday with cold weather headlines in effect for the entire area.

- The active weather pattern will continue the rest of the week with additional systems capable of producing light snow and windy conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 209 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The active upper air pattern will continue to bring disturbances through our region this week, with the next chance for snow coming in Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This clipper is currently forecast to bring the best chance for accumulating snow to locations north of I-80 once again, but these always need to be watched for a slight change in path. Given that this would be another dry fluffy snow event, a rough estimate this far out is for snow amounts to range from a dusting to potentially an inch or two.

On Wednesday the models show a weak upper level disturbance moving exiting the area in the morning, and another arriving in the late PM. The cold temperatures place any clouds in the favorable growth zone for snow some additional light snow or flurries is expected. Indeed, the model consensus is now starting to catch on to this scenario and has a 20 percent chance of snow for the northern part of the area.

Wednesday night/Thusday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of below normal temperatures

Another surge of modified arctic air will settle across the area Wednesday night into Thursday that will produce below normal temperatures. The model consensus has dry conditions but there may be some lingering light snow or flurries Wednesday evening associated with the arctic front moving out of the area. Breezy conditions will be seen Wednesday evening but winds will slowly diminish as the high builds further east into the area.

Thursday night through Friday night Assessment...low (<30%) confidence regarding precipitation chances

The models diverge with their respective solutions late week in regards to the sensible weather. The UKMET/GFS bring a system through the area Thursday night into Friday producing precipitation. The ECMWF/CMC have no system while the ICON model suggests a weak upper level system.

The differences appear to be related as to how quickly the arctic high from Canada builds south into the Midwest. The ECMWF/CMC are the quickest which pushes the active baroclinic zone south of the area. Interestingly, the ECMWF-AIFS has dry conditions while the AIGFS suggests there could be some precipitation Thursday night into Friday in Wisconsin.

As a result of the differences between the models, the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of precipitation mainly Friday into Friday night for parts of the area. The consensus appears to be biased toward the GFS/GEFS.

Saturday Assessment...low (<30%) confidence on precipitation chances

The key to Saturday and into Saturday night will be the strength and position of the arctic high. The various global models do agree that a 1040+ high will eventually build down into the Plains but differ on the timing. The deterministic runs of the global models have Saturday as dry. However, there are members of the various ensemble runs that have the arctic high weaker and further north which allows a weak system to move through the area.

As a result of the weaker ensemble members, the model consensus has a 20-30 percent chance of snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1102 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Another quick moving band of snow and strong winds will arrive later this afternoon in all of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This snow will be most widespread and affect the north portion of the area most through early evening, but even in the south, some short term periods of IFR vis/cigs in light snow is possible this afternoon. Initially, southwest winds of 10-15kts are expected, but by early evening, an Arctic front will arrive bringing strong northwest winds up to 38kts, and some blowing snow, mainly north of Highway 30 where some snow depth may allow for blowing snow in this wind. To the south, a lack of snow should keep blowing snow limited or no impact. Very cold conditions are expected to spread into the area again tonight on this strong wind flow. This cold dry air is expected to bring a dry, Monday, with stratocumulus gradually breaking up to VFR.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076-077. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for IAZ067- 068-078-087>089-098-099. IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for ILZ001- 002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for MOZ009- 010.