textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend begins today and continues into Thursday with a brief cool day on Friday before another warming trend begins this weekend.

- There is a chance of showers and storms Thursday afternoon into the evening. Rainfall amounts will be light.

- There is a Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms south of a Fairfield to Moline to Sterling Rock Falls line Thursday afternoon into the evening. There is still some uncertainty in the timing, location, and availible moisture.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Winds will turn to the south on today as high pressure slips farther to the east. This will lead to warmer temperatures and some moisture return into the area with widespread high temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s in far northeast Missouri, Clouds will increase once again during the afternoon as another disturbance moves across the area from the Northern Plains. Low levels remain dry so no precipitation is expected with this wave. Clouds will linger into Tuesday night before slowly clearing from west to east. Low temperatures Wednesday morning are forecast to range from the upper 30s north of Highway 30 to the mid 40s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri are forecast to sit between ridging over the Southwest US and low pressure over southeastern Canada. Models are in good agreement that the heat dome associated with this ridging will expand northeastward into the area through Thursday. This will lead to high temperatures warming into the 70s to mid 80s by Thursday.

A shortwave moving southeastward from the Pacific Northwest into the southern Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night. This will drive a strong cold front southeastward across the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There are timing differences between the synoptic models on the timing of this front. The differences in the timing of the front also create differences in available instability across the area. The GFS has slowed the timing of the front until the evening hours but its forecast soundings continue to show a brief window for surface based storms along the front as the strong prefrontal inversion erodes despite its later timing. If storms form ahead of the front large hail is possible but if storms form along the front, damaging winds will be the main threat with tall, thin cape profiles and strong winds through the layer. The Storm Prediction Center has moved the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) to the south and east of our area. They have placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) south and east of a line from Fairfield to Moline to Sterling Rock Falls line. Additionally, rainfall amounts with this storm system are mainly south of Interstate 80 with model QPF of a tenth to two tenths of inch.

Noticeably cooler air will spread into the Friday with temperatures almost 30 degrees cooler than Thursday with high temperatures ranging from 45 to 50 degrees from north to south.

500 MB ridging and the heat dome to our southwest will build northeastward again starting another warming trend across the area Saturday through the end of the period. There is considerable uncertainty in the forecast beyond Saturday as models disagree on the timing of a trough moving into the western US. However, ensembles are faster with this trough resulting in chances of showers on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Disturbances moving across the area will result in periods of mid and high level clouds through the period. Winds will become southerly by 15 UTC and then turn back to the southeast after 00 UTC. Wind speeds will be 5 to 10 knots through the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.