textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of dense fog are expected this morning, with a gradual improvement in visibilities from south to north through the mid/late morning.

- Widespread rain is expected today with isolated thunderstorms possible before the precipitation changes over to snow from west to east this afternoon and evening.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect area-wide for west to northwest winds gusting between 45 to 55 mph from this afternoon into Monday morning.

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for roughly the northern two tier of counties from this afternoon into Monday morning. Periods of snow and blowing snow, along with the potential for a flash freeze will lead to hazardous travel conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Today: SPC mesoanalysis had a 1000mb surface low across eastern Kansas and a deep upper trough displaced to the northwest across the north-central Rockies and eastern High Plains. This system will evolve quickly through the day as a 140+ kt jet streak expands over the Central Plains to Mid Mississippi Valley region and the upper trough takes on a neutral to slight negative tilt.

A rapid deepening of the surface low is expected, falling from 1000mb early this morning to near 980mb by early Monday AM over Lake Huron. The expected track of the low hasn't changed, going from north- central Missouri toward Chicago and Lake Michigan later tonight. This will bring the warm sector up into the far southeast to east-central fringe of the outlook area (portions of Hancock, McDonough, and Putnam Counties), where dewpoints may reach the the upper 50s to near 60 F leading to an unstable air mass with MUCAPEs reaching 500+ J/kg ahead of the arctic cold front set to blast through later this afternoon. Expect the majority of any thunderstorm activity to stay elevated based on forecast sounding thermal profiles. Therefore, the primary risks are hail and lightning. By this afternoon, CAMs show increasing MLCAPE south of the warm front near and southeast of Macomb. The latest outlook from SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms clipping the southeast portion of McDonough County and near the southern part of Putnam County. Thunderstorms that develop in this area could become surface based and pose a risk for damaging winds or a brief isolated tornado (2% chance within 25 miles of a point). For rainfall amounts, a widespread quarter to half inch is anticipated with higher amounts likely where the heavier downpours pass through.

Very strong west to northwest winds, gusting up to 45 to 55 mph, will develop behind a cold front this afternoon and evening as temperatures quickly fall from the 50s/40s to the 20s/teens! The abrupt drop in temperatures will be accompanied by a changeover from rain to wintry precip, potentially leading to slippery travel conditions (icy roads) for some areas due to a possible flash freeze, most likely to the north of I-80. It's uncertain on how impactful the flash freeze situation will be as roads may dry out from the strong winds.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northern portions of the outlook area for periods of snow, reduced visibility from significant blowing snow, and potentially icy roads leading to hazardous travel conditions. Wrap around light snow will linger into early Monday AM with the strong winds continuing. Slippery travel conditions may also develop south of the current Winter Weather Advisory so we'll have to closely monitor upstream observations and road conditions as a southward expansion of the headline is possible. For snowfall amounts, the NBM continues to show a very tight north to south gradient with probabilities for 1"+ between 50-80+% north of Highway 30 and much lower to the south. Generally anticipate 1-3" across the far north (with a low potential for isolated higher amounts), and 1" or less south of Highway 30. The influx of arctic air combined with the very strong winds will create wind chills in the single digits and teens below zero late tonight into Monday morning which will feel very cold after the prolonged stretch of mild weather.

Monday: Cold and windy will be the main story. Areas of light snow near and northeast of the Quad Cities should quickly dissipate through the mid morning hours. Forecast highs are in the teens/20s and lows Monday night are in the teens and single digits.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Northwest flow aloft is expected through much of the week as a deep upper trough sets up over the eastern U.S. and eastern Canada. This will result in seasonably cold temperatures and occasional chances for light snow. A weak clipper may bring some light snow to the area on New Year's Eve. Late in the period, models are showing a return to zonal flow aloft which may lead to moderating temperatures into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Impactful weather is expected through the period with dense fog this morning and increasing coverage of light to moderate rain with isolated/embedded thunder. The fog and low clouds will lead to IFR/LIFR ceilings at times before slowly improving to IFR/MVFR by this evening into tonight. A strong cold front moving through this afternoon and evening will lead to a changeover to snow for portions of the area along with very windy conditions. Expect west to northwest winds gusting 35-45 kts into Monday morning. Additionally, the combination of falling and blowing snow will result in periods of reduced visibility favored at DBQ/CID this evening into tonight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ001-002. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ILZ025-026-034-035. MO...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ009-010. Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MOZ009-010.