textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional weak systems through Friday will provide chances for patchy light snow or flurries over roughly the northeast half of the area. The Thursday night into Friday morning time frame will need to be watched for the potential of some freezing drizzle north and northeast of the Quad Cities.

- A pronounced warm-up to above normal temperatures commences on Sunday and continues into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Today: Patchy light snow or flurries are possible mainly north and east of the Quad Cities this morning as a weak clipper system tracks across Wisconsin toward the Lower Great Lakes region. All-in-all it will be a quiet day across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with "mild" conditions as highs reach the mid 30s northeast to near 40 F along I-80 and low/mid 40s to the southwest.

Tonight through Friday: Another clipper will dive down from the north late tonight, taking a similar track to today's system. This will keep our eastern outlook area on the western fringe of the steadier precip. The highest chances (20-40%) for some light QPF are east of a Dubuque to Princeton, IL line between midnight to 6 AM. Forecast soundings show marginal saturation at or colder than -10 C, so there is potential for a mix of light snow/freezing drizzle or brief light freezing rain, which could lead to a thin glaze of ice on elevated or untreated surfaces. Most of the outlook area will get missed by this system with the higher QPF (0.05-0.10"+) expected across portions of Wisconsin into northeast Illinois.

Forecast lows are in the upper 20s to around 30 F tonight, with temperatures expected to hold near freezing through the early to mid morning hours on Friday across the E/NE outlook area. It will warm up into the mid 30s to lower 40s (south) by early Friday afternoon, but gusty NW winds up to 30 mph will make it feel quite a bit colder. Chilly temps are expected Friday night with lows in the teens to upper single digits.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Saturday through Monday night Assessment...high confidence of a pronounced warm- up for Sunday/Monday

All global models build a thermal ridge into the central CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. This feature nearly guarantees temperatures trending above normal. The latest NBM has 20s/30s on Saturday, 30s/40s Sunday, and 40s/50s on Monday.

While there are some very weak disturbances aloft progged to move through the area, moisture is very limited due to a progged split flow across the CONUS. Thus only an increase in clouds should mark the passage of each disturbance.

Tuesday through Wednesday Assessment...low (10-20%) confidence on precipitation. High confidence on above normal temperatures

The global models continue to forecast a split flow across the CONUS which raises questions as to the amount of moisture available for precipitation. All models show a weak low and associated front moving through the Midwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. A new low develops in the southern Plains Tuesday night and moves along the front into the Great Lakes on Wednesday.

Deterministic models have been very inconsistent on timing and placement of precipitation in the extended period. The NBM has precip chances between 20-40% from Tuesday through Thursday, which is reasonable given the uncertainty. The EC ensemble 24 hr probabilities for 0.10"+ of QPF highlights the Wednesday night into Thursday night period as a potential window for a storm system to move through the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. There remains a lot of uncertainty on the evolution of the mid/upper level pattern through the middle to end of next week. It does look to be a more active pattern across the Central U.S. as a longwave trough becomes established over the West, leading to southwest flow aloft downstream and the potential for Gulf moisture to get pulled northward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A large area of stratus will overspread eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois leading to periods of MVFR ceilings overnight into Thursday AM. Improvement to VFR is anticipated by mid/late Thursday morning at CID/MLI/BRL, and there is a low probability for brief light snow or flurries at DBQ which was mentioned in a PROB30.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.