textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated sprinkles/drizzle for much of the second half of the work week. The wet pattern looks to re-establish itself starting this weekend and into next week with moisture from tropical systems.

- Temperatures will continue the cooler than normal trend to end the month and start October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Persistent low level easterly flow combined with the nor'easter on the east coast will push moisture westward into the area through Thursday night. Progged soundings of the atmosphere show this moisture to be fairly shallow so not much in the way of precipitation is expected.

However a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area this afternoon has managed to produce some sprinkles/drizzle. Another weak disturbance approaching from the Plains Thursday afternoon and night looks to provide the same set-up; scattered sprinkles and patchy drizzle.

Otherwise, it will be a mix of clouds and sun the next 42 hours with cooler than normal temperatures. The CU rule does have a diurnal trend to the clouds but with steep low level lapse rates even at night, some cloud cover will persist after sunset.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Friday through Wednesday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on cooler than normal temperatures.

A slightly stronger upper level disturbance will arrive in the Friday/Saturday time frame bringing a risk for rain. However, the system will be fighting relatively dry easterly flow ahead of it. Add to this a surface based rex block from the strong Canadian high and the nor'easter on the east coast should result in a slower arrival of the system.

Indeed trends with the global models do appear to suggest a slightly negative delta on the rain chances for Friday. Thus the Friday daylight hours and potentially evening hours may end up being mainly dry for most of the area. The better timing for any rain appears to be Saturday into Saturday night as the Canadian high moves further east and the better forcing from the system arrives. Unlike last week, rainfall amounts for this event will be on the light side.

The next chance for rain is starting to center around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. During this time frame the models are showing a strong tropical connection to the systems in the eastern Pacific up into the Midwest. The model consensus already has a medium to high (50-70%) probability of rain occurring during this time frame. PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches are already being progged by the global models indicating a high (>80%) probability of heavy rain occurring.

Although beyond the scope of the 7 day forecast, the high PWATs look to reload again late next week for the next system. This signal would be consistent the with MJO vacillating between phases 8 and 1 which correlates to above normal precipitation for the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A stratocumulus deck continues to plague the area with mostly BKN skies. Ceilings are currently/expected to remain VFR around 4 to 6 kft throughout the next 24 hours outside brief moments of MVFR conditions with lower ceilings of 2 to 3 kft. The greatest chance of this occurring is at BRL (50%), so a TEMPO group has been included between 11 UTC and 14 UTC tomorrow morning. Otherwise, winds will stay easterly around 3-8 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.