textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20 - 30 percent chances of showers and isolated storms towards morning. Widespread rainfall is not expected.

- The blocking across the CONUS is forecast to break down late this week with a return of low chances of showers and storms. Once again, widespread rainfall is not expected. - The lack of rain and overall low chances of rain during the coming week is expected to result in an expansion of the abnormally dry conditions with increased probability of moderate drought developing.

UPDATE

Issued at 646 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The latest CAMs and observational trends continue to show little in the way of activity forming in our area tonight, after the northern showers exit later this evening. Some southern storms remain possible in MO tonight, and that could lead to a low chance ( 20-30%) of stratiform rain with thunder in the south towards morning. I've collaborated with neighboring offices to lower chances for storms overnight, and nudged our messaging to fit that change as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Convection will persist along another theta e gradient running from northeast Iowa into central Illinois through sunset. Slightly higher low level moisture combined with differential heating will allow isolated to low end scattered (15-25%) diurnal convection to develop across the remainder of the area. Once sunset occurs the diurnal convection will quickly dissipate as the support for it moves into Wisconsin.

The very short term models differ on the prospects of seeing late night nocturnal convection. The better signal for this is in central and southern Missouri. However, there is a weak disturbance coming out of Nebraska that has a low (20%) probability of developing nocturnal convection that moves through the area well after midnight and into the morning commute.

If this scenario does occur, the convection would be in a decaying phase as it reaches eastern Iowa as it outruns the better moisture across western Iowa.

Any nocturnal convection across the area after sunrise Monday will quickly dissipate during the morning commute. Weak boundaries left over from the nocturnal convection would provide the focus for diurnal convection to develop Monday afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Thursday through Sunday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of above normal temperatures

The new model runs quickly break down the omega block the second half of the week leaving a relatively flat ridge over the central CONUS. The net result will be a continuation of the above normal temperatures.

As expected the model consensus is slowing down the arrival of precipitation. Thursday is now dry and there is a negative delta on pops for Thursday night given the dryness of the atmosphere. Several deterministic runs suggest a dry Thursday night. Given the lack of moisture I expect pops for Thursday night to continue dropping as the week progresses.

Integrated Vapor Transport really does not begin increasing until Friday and especially Friday night. The best chances for rain look to be Friday night when the IVT is progged to be maximized. The model consensus concurs with a 40-60% chance for rain Friday night. Outside of Friday night, the model consensus has 20-40% chances for rain from Thursday night through Sunday. HOWEVER, not everyone will see rainfall. Convection would have a diurnal trend to it with the higher pops occurring during the afternoon into early evening hours.

Although there are chances for rain late this week, the abnormally dry conditions have a high (>80%) probability of continuing with a low (15-30%) probability of moderate drought conditions developing over the next 10-14 days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Light east flow will trend northeast overnight, but remain under 10 kts. Scattered to broken mid and high clouds will continue, with a very low (10-20%) chance of an isolated shower this evening, overnight and again Monday. There does appear to be enough signal for showers/storms over Missouri late tonight, that BRL could be brushed by some showers 09z to 13Z.

Otherwise, the dry air should again win out over rainfall the next 24 hours in general, and TAFs will be VFR predominantly.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.