textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through the rest of the week and beyond, with widespread temperatures in the 40s today and Thursday, with 50s possible by Friday into the weekend.

- Precipitation chances have decreased further for Thursday, with only low chances (10-30%) for Thursday and the weekend system.

- Extended forecast continues to favor above normal temperatures for next week, with 60+ degree high temperatures not out of the question for some.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A pleasant day is on tap for today, with abundant sunshine and unseasonably mild temperatures continuing as an area of high pressure translates through the area later today. With the surface high currently over southeastern Nebraska, we're seeing northwesterly winds this morning, but they will become more light and variable as the high pressure ridge axis passes through this evening. Winds will turn more southerly in the wake of the high pressure tonight. High temperatures will once again warm to the 40s across the area, with low temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s for most tonight. We will see increasing clouds tonight ahead of a system approaching the area for Thursday. More about that in the Long Term section.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 306 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Models are still in good agreement with bringing a mid-level shortwave/clipper to ride up top the upper-level ridging into our region for late tonight through the day Thursday. What has changed over the last 24 hours is a pretty noteworthy drop in QPF, with both the NBM and LREF exceedance probabilities of measurable precipitation showing a pronounced decrease using a dProg/dt method. It appears more likely now for very little, if any, precipitation for the Thursday system. While the NBM is now giving spotty slight chance (less than 20%) PoPs, there is still some guidance that hints at light precip, so in coordination with neighboring offices, decided to boost PoPs over the NBM slightly, in favor of 10-30% PoPs along and north of Interstate 80. This matches better with what the 11.00z HREF exceedance probabilities of measurable precip gives, along with the signal from the deterministic ECMWF/GFS and their respective AI counterparts. The thermal profile still supports a rain/snow mixture, but with limited snowfall rates, it appears unlikely for anything to really stick onto the relatively warm pavement, so travel impacts aren't expected. With saturation within the dendritic growth zone aloft, it's possible some people may see some snow falling, but again, it will be a wet snow and very likely to melt on contact with the ground.

The only other opportunity for precipitation looks to be Saturday and Saturday night this weekend, as a southern stream wave is progged to produce a compact trough that will translate across the southern US. The question will be how far north will the precipitation shield make it as the bulk of the moisture looks to remain to the south. The NBM suggests 10-30% PoPs, mainly along and south of Highway 30. There's not much consensus among the global models as to how far north the precipitation gets, due to spatial differences among them and the ECMWF AIFS and AIGEFS ensembles. One thing that appears more certain is that if we do receive precipitation from this larger system, rain appears to be the most likely precip type.

As for temperatures, confidence remains high for a gradual warming trend this week into mid-week next week. A large northern stream upper ridge is progged to develop over the central CONUS for the end of the week. Prevailing southerly flow will help enhance a thermal ridge, increasing our temperatures over the next several days. A time series of the ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails indicates values for high temperatures steadily increasing into Tuesday next week, with values increasing to 0.7 to 0.9 in our area, which indicates pretty good consensus among the EC ensembles of warmer than average temperatures. The exact extent of the warm up for early next week remains uncertain as 850 mb temperatures from the GEFS and EC ensembles differ by at least a few degrees, but there is a strong enough signal to say with confidence that temperatures will be well above average, with 850 temperatures roughly between 9 to 12 degrees C, which would be near the daily maximum for 00z/6 PM on Tuesday. Could this mean that 60+ degree F high temperatures are in play next week? The short answer is yes, but how early will we see them remains uncertain. It's possible we could see them over our south as early as Monday across our south, but at the moment, confidence remains higher for Tuesday into mid-week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 945 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A ridge of high pressure will continue to slide southward down the plains and maintain a northwesterly sfc wind pressure gradient overnight through Wednesday, before relaxing and backing later Wed afternoon/early evening. Otherwise a quiet VFR TAF cycle looks in store through Wed evening with just passing rounds of high clouds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.