textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme Heat Warning continues through this evening for the south, the other areas cloud debris and lingering precip should keep heat index readings below headline criteria. Still very humid and uncomfortable. Not as hot early next week with more seasonable temps.

- Messy storm pattern through the weekend with several rounds of storms possible. But many dry hours embedded in with the storm chances as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A challenging convective/storm timing and coverage fcst, with CAM guidance all over the place as well as weak sfc flow riddled with outflow boundaries. The short wave/MCV seen on water vapor imagery moving out of southwest IA driving the current activity acrs central into northeast IA will move into WI by mid morning. Until it does, will have to account for it moving acrs the northwest third to half of the CWA through 13-14z before moving off and experiencing diurnal decay. But then some of the activity currently occurring acrs far northeast NE into northwestern IA may try to move in behind that convection for the mid to late morning period, if even in a weakening fashion itself. It should weaken moving into recently worked over air and the LLJ getting diurnally disrupted. Both these scenarios will move rainfall over the already rainfall hard hit northwestern DVN CWA and will leave the Flood Watch ongoing for now. It may have to be extended if the precip doesn't decay by mid morning. Then following weak short wave ridging will hopefully bring a lull in the widespread convection for the afternoon into early evening, but can't rule out an isolated storm anywhere during that period. An isolated stronger cell in the afternoon would be able to produce downburst winds and hail.

Tonight...Here comes another shortwave(currently over WY) to drive sctrd storm clusters and/or MCS's from the MO RVR Valley and acrs IA. Current timing has the bulk of this activity moving in acrs the local area from the west after midnight, but there will likely be some precursor isolated cells popping up locally in increasing LLJ WAA earlier in the evening. Will have to adjust general POPs for these trends. Damaging winds and localized very heavy rainfall at 1- 2 inch per hour rates for flash flooding again remain the primary threats for any overnight convection.

Back to temps today, will bank on convective debris lingering long enough to inhibit most of the area's ambient temps from getting warm enough to combine with mid 70 DPTs to produce headline-able heat. All but the southern third where expect more recovery/ insolation and will leave the heat headline that was extended there ride for now. But there could be the chance for even those southern areas to not quite make it. Lows tonight may be a category cooler than the past several nights more in the way of upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Saturday...After whatever convective system can effect the area late Friday night and how it or it's outflow lingers into Saturday will be a player for the rest of the day. If the system is progressive and exits Sat morning, the rest of the day may be mainly precip-free or just with isolated hit and miss storms. But then there are signs of short wave energy and mid level jet flux to start to angle the steering flow acrs the upper Midwest more northwesterly. this process may form nocturnal thunderstorms right overhead, just off to the southwest, or north to northeast of the local CWA into Sunday morning. Several models and ensembles support all three of these scenarios and makes for high uncertainty at this juncture in time. Will have to cover these chances with decent POPs from later Sat afternoon and into the night and await further runs as we close in more on the Holiday. Another hot muggy day but current DPT and temp values make for heat index readings in the 90s and below headline criteria.

Sunday...Not as hot and with a northwest flow upper wave overhead, there will be the chance for isolated to widely sctrd showers and storms popping up in the afternoon heating. High CAPE-low shear type of scenario.

Quick look at next week, appears to be large/broad ridging regime developing acrs much of the upper mid CONUS, meaning mainly dry and seasonable for the home team through at least mid week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 722 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Predominant VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Included just PROB30 from 15z-19z at KCID/KDBQ/KMLI for potential for shra/tsra, but convection to the west of the sites is struggling to move east. If convection holds together, MVFR conditions are possible with any tsra. Convection again possible at the same sites late in the TAF period, and included PROB30 for this potential. Winds will be mostly from the southat 4-8kts, decreasing to 5kts or less after 00z.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042- 051>053-063>065. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ087>089-098-099. IL...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for ILZ025- 026-034-035. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009- 010.