textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms overnight to track northeast across the area through Friday morning, with potential for isolated hail up to the size of quarters.

- Thunderstorms likely areawide Friday evening into the overnight, with a continued level 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms with all hazards possible. There is the potential for some of the storms to produce significant severe weather.

- Fog, some dense, again possible early Friday morning, however lower confidence than this morning.

- Breezy and warm on Friday with near record high temperatures in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

An active first 36 hours of the forecast. First regarding recurrence of fog. The area will be under ridging into this evening with the potential for fog to develop area wide as winds remain light. Given what has occurred on recent nights and the area being north of a developing warm frontal zone, there is that potential and for some dense fog again that could affect the early Friday morning commute. This setup is not as clear as this morning, however.

A 500 mb trough will track from the western US into the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. Over that time span, the surface low is forecast to lift from the western Plains into Michigan. Ahead of the trough, a shortwave is forecast to eject northeastward across the area late tonight/early Friday morning with a developing moderate low level jet. Elevated showers and progressively more storms should form to the southwest of the area around midnight and lift northeast across the area through mid-morning. In general, the window for showers and storms is between 3 AM to 10 AM, with the center of that being the morning commute. Elevated CAPE of 200-600 J/kg tonight, deep layer shear around 30 kt, and freezing levels only around 10kft will make small hail probable and isolated marginal severe hail possible. Overall though, the severe potential is low (level 1 of 5).

The track of the surface low will result in a warm front lifting across the area with several hours in a warm and breezy warm sector resulting in high temperatures along and south of Interstate 80 in the lower 70s with mid to upper 60s north depending on how long rain lingers in our north. See our Climate Discussion below for where this stacks up for March 6.

This low track is a climatologically favored path for possible early season severe weather (if other meteorological variables line up). As the trough and a mid level speed max of 70 to 90 knots lifts into the Plains later Friday, another slug of moisture will lift northward into the area increasing dewpoints into the lower 60s and PWATs nearing 1.30 inches (upper few percentile for time of year). While confidence is low on the exact evolution of storms, there is high certainty in most of the area seeing thunderstorms Friday night, and some may see multiple waves in that Friday night period. With an increasing wind field there is a decent potential for at least isolated severe storms in our area, and coverage may end up being greater depending on degree of storm sustenance and organization and if storms can tap unstable air form the low levels. We think that damaging winds will be the most likely including potentially >70 mph if sustained surges/bows can develop in unstable low-level air. Hail and tornadoes are also possible. The 0 to 3 km shear near 40 knots and its orientation with the expected line or more so quasi- linear structure means that mesovortex generation is possible. The deep layer shear orientation somewhat parallel to the front means that storms may not race out ahead of the front but likely favor upscale growth into some kind of a QLCS and progress across the area again. But again, uncertainty in exact morphology and speed. Overall, storms that could reach severe limits are possible between 5 PM Friday through 3 AM Saturday, with fading thereafter. Showers and storms will quickly come to an end behind the front by 6 A.M. Saturday.

The NBM membership has a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing an inch of rain for areas along and north of Interstate 80 through early Saturday morning. That looks to result in minor mainly nuisance flooding given recent dry conditions, with anything higher on the flooding end having to be due to multiple rounds over a metro.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

This Weekend into Early Next Week...strong northwest winds behind frontal passage Saturday morning will start the period with decreasing clouds. A beautiful stretch of weather is forecast this weekend with dry conditions and comfortable humidity. Timing of the frontal passage friday night into Saturday will cause high temperatures on Saturday to occur early in the day with temperatures during the day ranging from the mid 40s in east central Iowa to the upper 50s in west central Illinois. Highs in the low 60s is forecast Sun, with even warmer temperatures into the lower 70s Monday and Tuesday! The roller coaster temperatures continue as much cooler air arrives later in the week.

A 500 mb trough is forecast to dig into the area Tuesday into Wednesday with showers and storms. Rainfall may be heavy (over 1 inch) in this mid to late week transition.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Conditions will be evolving into MVFR to IFR this evening in stratus with some light fog/haze. Dense fog with LIFR/VLIFR visibility is possible particularly near the river sites toward 06z through 09z, but confidence is low due a more mixed BL as winds gradually increase. Focus shifts to increasing convection potential toward 08z-09z through 13-14z. Have gone with a period of prevailing MVFR/IFR visibility with thunder mention at the TAFs during this timeframe. Instability could also support some hail with the stronger cells. LLWS was being advertised by guidance in this timeframe near KCID, but was omitted as it is implied with the prevailing TSRA mention. There is the potential for scattered SHRA/-TSRA activity lingering through 21z. Anticipate improving ceilings from IFR to higher MVFR and possibly VFR Friday afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 6: KBRL: 73 in 1910 KCID: 73 in 2005 KDBQ: 69 in 2000 KMLI: 73 in 2005

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.