textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance (20-40%) of scattered showers and isolated storms today and Friday. Heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph will be the primary hazards.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions likely for much of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Scattered showers and storms that brought gusty winds between 30-50 mph generally north and west of the I-380 corridor and heavy rain across Benton county last evening, has since dissipated to very light showers. Water vapor imagery shows subtle shortwaves aiding in additional showers developing over central IA and southwest WI at the moment. Finally, a strong LLJ is supporting a large area of storms just west of the KC metro over northeast KS this morning.

A cooler and cloudier day is expected with scattered off-and-on showers this morning. In addition, residual outflow boundaries from last night's convection and any breaks in the cloud cover will allow for more scattered storm potential this afternoon/early evening. Trying to pin down where and when these may occur is difficult in this pattern and given the wide array of model solutions decided to go with area- wide 20-40% PoPs. However, not all areas should expect rain today. Forecast soundings show a largely un-capped environment but a rather marginal CAPE/Shear overlap for severe potential locally. Thunder may also be hard to come by with weak mid-level lapse rates and the 00z REFS 1-hr thunder progs (40%) mostly confined to our southeast over central IL. Nonetheless, if a few storms do occur brief heavy downpours and gusty winds up to 40 mph would be possible in the strongest cells. Any activity to diminish quickly after sunset. Temperatures will also be a challenge today, with cloud breaks and precip duration possibly throwing a wrench in the forecast. Highs to top out in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows, to drop into the mid to upper 60s.

Friday will see another shortwave move across the central Plains and bring more precipitation chances to the region. However, the timing, strength, and location of this wave is still quite uncertain. Some scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible but the severe weather risk appears minimal at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

This Weekend...building heights aloft and high pressure overhead to bring largely dry and seasonable temperatures. Latest NBM loaded some lingering slight/chance PoPs across west central IL on Saturday that is likely a result of the 00z NAM outlier solution. I expect these to decrease further with future forecasts. Humidity levels should also be more tolerable with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

Next Week...latest deterministic and ensemble solutions still continue to show a large anomalous upper ridge building into the central CONUS. The center of this high to be over the central Plains and if it gets to 599dam as suggested by the 00z GFS, it could become a top 10 sounding for 500mb heights at OAX or ABR! Locally, this will bring a high confidence forecast of dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and building heat. Factoring in the maturing crops, heat indices in the mid 90s to low 100s appear very plausible for several days. More heat headlines may be needed for at least a portion of the area next week. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. Taking a look at the WPC experimental heat risk product, moderate impacts are possible Tuesday and Wednesday next week. This would include those who are the most sensitive to the heat. The latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook also maintains a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 16th-18th.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much, if not all, of the TAF period. MVFR stratus will work south towards DBQ by 15z this morning, but there remains uncertainty on if the 1500-2500 ft cigs will make their way that far south. Opted to cap cigs at 3000 ft at this time, but will continue to monitor and amend as necessary. There will be the chance for isolated-scattered showers/storms through the day today, with best chances after 18z. Uncertainty remains on timing and coverage. Thus, opted for PROB30 groups at this time for terminals with the better chances of seeing storms. Otherwise, with a boundary draped over the area today, light and variable winds will be seen. Along and north of the boundary, light west to northwesterly winds will be found, with southwesterly winds being seen south of the boundry.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.