textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cold night tonight with air temps below zero and wind chill values in the -15 to -30 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until Noon Saturday.

- There is a 50-80% probability of 2" or more of snow Saturday afternoon-Sunday along and south of a line from Ottumwa to Galesburg. Highest probabilities are in northeast MO and west central IL where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued. A sharp cutoff of snow amounts is expected on the northern edge of this system.

- Below normal temperatures continue next week, with cold weather headlines possible Sunday night and Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Brrr, it's cold outside with arctic air firmly in place across the Midwest. Our 18z sounding this AM had an 850mb temp of minus 25.3C which is our 7th coldest for the month of January per SPC sounding climatology! Strong CAA kept air temps below zero for most of the day area-wide. Wind chills have "improved" above -30 degrees as of Noon and have let the Extreme Cold Warning expire. A Cold Weather Advisory is now in place until Noon Saturday. If you have to go outside, cover all exposed skin and take frequent breaks inside.

Very strong arctic high (1045mb) will slide east this evening and overnight centered over the northern CWA at 09z/3am. This will set the stage for ideal radiational cooling and another very cold night, with lighter winds. With such a cold and dry airmass in place, went a little colder tonight near the lower end of guidance. Coldest values below -10 degrees to occur north of Hwy 30 where snow remains. Some mid level high clouds will move in from the southwest after midnight that may keep the southwest a tad warmer.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 207 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

After a cold start to the day, high temperatures should reach the single digits Saturday. Attention then turns to the approaching winter storm set to impact much of the southern US towards the Ohio River valley. The northern edge of this system is progged to brush our far south with a long duration snow event. A dprog/dt of the NBM 1+" probabilities in the past 24 hrs has shown consistent 60-80% values across northeast MO and west central IL with a sharpening gradient of lesser values on the northern edge. This is also supported by the 12z CAMs (HRRR, RRFS, and HREF output). The uncertainty remains on how long the dry northeasterly flow will win out over top down saturation and thus lowering total amounts. For this reason, have only issued a winter weather advisory for the far southern tier of counties beginning 3pm Saturday afternoon. This is where the highest confidence in some accumulating snow on a very cold ground is expected creating slick travel. Total QPF in the advisory is forecast in the 0.10-0.15" range and with 18 to 20:1 SLRs to result in 2-4 inch amounts over a 18-24hr period. A very sharp gradient in snow amounts is expected with this system which will be emphasized in our messaging. There is still a possible expansion north that may be needed for later shifts.

Beyond Sunday night, next week remains low confidence on the timing, strength, and placement of any snow chances. If there was one day that models were starting to come into better agreement on, it would be Wednesday as a shortwave drops south in the near-meridianal flow aloft. Of more concern, will be the return of colder temps and bitter wind chills likely necessitating some cold weather headlines Sunday night and possibly Wednesday night when another re-inforcing shot of arctic air arrives. Though not currently suggested to be as potent of Arctic air as of now, this pattern will continue to show highs and lows below normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

High pressure is forecast to sit across northern Iowa through the TAF period with a developing storm system to the south. This storm system will spread clouds northward across the area through the period. Cloud ceilings will slowly lower through the period but remain VFR. Winds will also slowly diminish with current northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots turning to the northeast at around 5 knots after 9 UTC.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 PM CST Sunday for ILZ034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for MOZ009-010. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 PM CST Sunday for MOZ009-010.