textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the area Monday, as a quick-hitting system brings light snow to the area. Impacts during the PM commute are expected for some.

- Below normal temperatures are forecast for the whole week, with some well below normal temperatures working in. Overnight temperatures for the second half of the week may be some of the coldest temperatures seen yet this season.

- Active pattern remains through the upcoming work week and weekend, with precipitation chances midweek and then late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Quite the chilly night ahead of us, as high pressure briefly passes through. Fortunately, increasing cloud cover should help prevent temperatures from dropping much further than forecast. Although, we will still be very cold, with single digits in our north to the teens in our south. Winds will be light and variable, keeping wind chills from dropping too low from the actual air temp. We will remain dry through the night as well, with increasing clouds ahead of the next system approaching the area.

An active start to the work week is expected, as we see a wave eject off of the central Rockies and trek through the Midwest. Early in the day, it should remain quiet and dry, with the cold temperatures remaining the main concern. Mid-Morning and into the afternoon hours, we will see the system move in from west to east. Sufficient moisture flow ahead of the system will favor precipitation chances, with cold temperature profiles making the precipitation type snow. We will see PoPs increase from west-east through the morning and afternoon, with light-moderate snow falling throughout the area by the Monday evening commute.

Fortunately, this will be a quick-hitting system, with largely lighter accumulation when compared to the previous storm. Much of the area will see accumulation from this system, but areas in our north should largely remain near or less than an inch. Best chances for at least an inch of snow will largely be along/south of a line from Cedar Rapids through Dubuque. Overall, accumulations should be less than 4" for most, with best chances for 4" (40-60% chances) along/south of a line from Burlington IA to Princeton IL. So, the area as a whole has the potential to see an additional 1-4" of snow Monday afternoon and into the night, where a couple higher amounts cannot be ruled out. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas roughly along/south of a line from Sigourney IA through the Quad Cities, where we are generally showing the potential for 2-4" of snow, especially during the Monday PM commute.

As was mentioned, this will be a quick-hitting system and should be out of much of the area by midnight local time. From there, we will remain socked in clouds, with temperatures dropping into the teens throughout. Fortunately, winds will remain light and prevent much colder wind chills.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 144 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The upper level pattern will largely remain northwest flow as we continue through this upcoming work week. Although, embedded in that flow will be several shortwaves, most of which should remain relatively weak and bring nothing but a change in airmass. Although, there will be a couple that gain access to better moisture south of the area, bringing along the chance for precipitation. On the back end of these waves, we will see more plunges of cold air, with a particularly strong surface high pressure moving in for the second half of the week. This may bring widespread single digit temperatures overnight, with possibly even some below zero readings. Uncertainty remains on how low the temperatures will get, but it will be cold nonetheless, with below normal temperatures forecast all week.

The first wave to bring potential precipitation will be on Wednesday, when we have a wave pass through midday. This wave is depicted well amongst guidance, with main differences being on moisture availability. It would seem like we will get sufficient llvl moisture flow ahead of this system, albeit still lower on moisture. In either case, light precipitation is expected to move through the area along the cold front that will push through the area. Model soundings would favor the primary precipitation type as snow, with QPF less than a tenth. Thus, overall snow accumulation should be low with this system, if there is much of any. Will continue to monitor for trends with this system, but overall seems to be a low impact and light precip event.

The next and more interesting wave comes through late in the week. This is a stronger wave, but there is much uncertainty when it comes to the track and phasing of the northern/southern jet streams. Guidance has been back and forth, bringing precipitation to the area, while then coming in dry on updated models runs. Thus, we will have to continue to monitor this for the potential of any impacts. At this time, guidance this morning has come in dry, but some ensemble systems do favor at least the potential in our southeast. Opted to leave Slight-Chance NBM PoPs. Otherwise, we remain in an active pattern going into next weekend, which may bring the potential for more precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Latest observations as of TAF issuance shows MVFR ceilings under a stratus cloud deck for areas along and south of Interstate 80, with higher clouds to the north. Some guidance suggests some visibility reductions due to fog early this morning, but with the clouds in place, my confidence is lower for this to become widespread or very thick, so will cap any fog mention at MVFR for now.

Attention then turns to a quick burst of accumulating snow expected to move through the area, mainly during the PM hours Monday. Confidence is quite high that this snow will be the dry, fluffy variety, with the latest HREF ensemble suggesting snowfall rates between 0.25 to 0.5 inches per hour will be common, perhaps exceeding 0.5 inches per hour at times. This should lead to IFR conditions (ceilings and visibilities), with LIFR conditions possible in the heavier snowfall (probabilities of 1/2SM visibilities between 50-70% per the HREF for BRL and MLI). Winds will generally be light and variable, so blowing snow doesn't appear to be an issue.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to midnight CST Monday night for IAZ067-068. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Winter Weather Advisory from noon Monday to midnight CST Monday night for ILZ009-015>018-024>026-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for ILZ034. MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to midnight CST Monday night for MOZ009-010.