textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued very cold this evening into early Friday morning with wind chills in the single digits and teens below zero!

- Snow chances increasing Saturday night into Sunday morning, with 40-70% probabilities of 2+" north of Highway 34.

- Active northwest flow next week, with several clippers tracking near the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

After record low temperatures for some locations this morning, we'll be a little "warmer" tonight due to steady southerly winds limiting decoupling near the surface. Temperatures will likely fall quickly this evening into early tonight, then slowly rise late as the southerly flow becomes established. Latest forecast has lows in the single digits above and below zero, coldest in the eastern counties. Wind chills again will be quite cold with min values in the single digits and teens below zero...brrr!

A mid-level shortwave will track across the Midwest on Friday with an attendant surface trough expected to move through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois during the late evening to overnight period. This system is moisture starved, but could result in patchy light snow/flurries across the northern to northeast counties, or even a little freezing drizzle due to a loss of in-cloud ice (precip chances: 10-20%). Overall, it looks like a low probability and little to no impact event.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Saturday-Sunday: A clipper system is expected to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. NBM probabilities for accumulating snow have continued to trend higher, now between 40-70% for 2"+ (roughly north of Highway 34). And the probabilities for 4"+ are between 20-40% near and W/NW of the Quad Cities. The EC ensemble has been consistent in showing a band of 0.20-0.30"+ of QPF and other model guidance as been trending toward the wetter and slightly stronger EC scenario. Saturday's forecast highs are in the mid/upper 20s, with colder values in the teens/20s expected Sunday behind the clipper.

Early Next Week: Cold start to the work week Sunday night, with another 1034mb surface high overhead. These temperatures will not be as cold as the current air mass this morning, with 850mb temps 4C warmer. Still could see a few locations with sub- zero lows Monday morning. Two more clippers to track over the upper Midwest (one Monday night-Tuesday and another 24hrs later) with a general consensus keeping any appreciable snow potential north across MN/WI. We would instead see a warm draw of above freezing temps move into the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, with a rain/snow mix possible. LREF (100 member ensemble) is showing 40-70% probabilities of 850mb temps above 0C Tuesday and Wednesday supporting above freezing highs. Continue to monitor the forecast for any updates and trends with these passing systems.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A weak disturbance passing to our north is spreading clouds across KCID, KMLI, and KDBQ with ceilings between 3 and 4 kft tonight. KDBQ is expect to drop to at least 3 kft and remain MVFR overnight. LLWS is forecast to develop at KCID and KDBQ after 09 UTC and come to an end by 14 UTC as low level winds increase. A cold front is forecast to move across the area late this afternoon and into this evening with winds switching to the west. MVFR ceilings are possible once again at KCID, DBQ, and KMLI after 21 UTC Friday. FZDZ is possible at KDBQ and KMLI for a brief period in the evening but confidence was low on the timing and location so it was left out of the TAFs for this issuance.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.