textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light accumulating snow is expected Sunday through Sunday evening. Most locations are expected to see between a half inch up to 1.5 inches of total snow, with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches possible in east-central and northeast Iowa.

- After a cold Sunday morning, temperatures will gradually warm up next week. In fact, high temperatures above the freezing mark are possible by the latter half of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

A surface high pressure ridge axis will continue to sweep through the area this afternoon and evening, leading to light winds and continued sunny skies until sunset. Northwest winds will become light and variable as the ridge axis moves through. Quiet conditions continue tonight into early Sunday morning, although there will be increasing cloud cover ahead of a system that will bring light accumulating snow to the region Sunday. Winds will turn more southerly in the wake of the ridge axis, with temperatures tonight expected to be slightly warmer compared to this morning thanks to the southerly flow. Lows tonight should fall to the single digits above zero, and wind chills in the negative single digits.

The main focus in the short-term continues to be on widespread light accumulating snow over the area (40 to 60% chances). This is all due to a compact mid-level shortwave clipper expected to eject southeastward out of the Dakotas. Ahead of it, increasing theta-e advection from the southerly flow will help enhance moisture within the column, resulting in ice crystal development aloft. The 31.12z HREF ensemble soundings suggest a fairly brief period of dendritic ice crystal growth aloft, along with generally weak omega, so snowfall rates should be light (up to a quarter inch per hour, more likely less than this). The deterministic NBM QPF appears to be a bit too low for this event in comparison to several of the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles, so favored the WPC QPF over the NBM which appears to have a better handle. Ultimately, this results in a slight boost to QPF for this event from the previous forecast, which agrees with a dProg/dt of the ensembles. With snow being of the dry, fluffy variety, snow totals have increased slightly as well, generally around a half inch to 1.5 inches - highest over northeast and east-central Iowa (isolated amounts up to 2 inches can't be ruled out). Concern for any squalls is pretty low, given weak low-level lapse rates and a lack of a strong isallobaric component. The snow is expected to linger through Sunday evening before drier air filters in from the west.

This is a low potential (<10%), but there could be some freezing drizzle possible on the backside of the snow late Sunday as dry air filters into the DGZ, leaving supercooled liquid water in the low- levels. Dry air near the surface could help to limit the freezing drizzle, but some model soundings support lower ceilings which would help support the freezing drizzle, so something to keep an eye on.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

The long-term period looks mostly dry, despite a few clipper systems passing over the area at times, mainly on Tuesday and again Thursday night. One limiting factor appears to be a lack of moisture, so measurable precip appears more difficult to come by. Indeed, the latest NBM has chances of precip around less than 15 percent for Tuesday, and 10 to 30% for Thursday night.

The bigger story for next week will be a trend towards warming temperatures for the latter portions of the week. Large-scale ridging across the western CONUS looks to support thermal ridging over our region, although to what degree looks uncertain at this time as the ECMWF ensemble 850 mb temperatures are at least a few degrees warmer compared to the GEFS ensembles. The LREF exceedance probabilities of high temperatures at the freezing mark or warmer increases to 60 to 90% for Thursday and Friday. Those that have been looking for some relief from this stretch of cold, the end of next week looks to provide that relief.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1108 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours as a high pressure ridge axis sweeps through the area. Winds will go light and variable along the ridge for a time before turning southerly in its wake. A system will move in on Sunday, bringing chances of light accumulating snow. MVFR conditions are likely, with the snow being more of the dry, fluffy variety.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.