textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The better rain chances are Friday night into Saturday with the arrival of better moisture. Any rain prior to the weekend looks to be spotty at best.

- The global models point to a possible pattern change next week along with what may be a significant system in the Midwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Mainly dry conditions through Wednesday as moisture below 10kft AGL will be very limited. At best some spotty sprinkles or isolated showers may be seen late Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Wednesday night through Thursday night Assessment...low (<25%) confidence on rain chances

Moisture transport into the area is very weak to non-existent in the low levels. Thus mainly dry conditions will be seen with the potential for some isolated sprinkles or showers. The current model consensus of higher rain chances is likely overdone.

Friday through Tuesday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on late week rain potential. Medium to high (60-80%) confidence on the chances of a significant system next week.

Friday into Saturday a respectable surge of moisture will be transported into the area. This moisture is a combination of the remnants from Vance and the Gulf opening up. Just going on the progged arrival of the moisture, Friday night into Saturday would have the better chances for rain. The model consensus shows this with rain chances running 40-60% depending upon the location.

Several ensemble members show different timing for this moisture. Thus the model consensus has a 20-40% chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday. The various model solutions and their ensembles should begin to converge to a better timing over the next few days.

Next week has the potential to be interesting.

The various global models show a weakening of the 10 hPa mean zonal winds at 60 N suggesting the potential for a pattern change. So far the global models only show a temporary pattern change which is the result of all models developing a significant mid-latitude cyclone.

The models agree on the development of a large mid-latitude cyclone early next week. However, there are differences on where the system develops/evolves. These differences determine on how strong the system could become and where it eventually tracks.

The initial surge of moisture comes from a plume off the Pacific which helps develop the system. As the system develops, the Gulf opens up supplying even more moisture. The development area for the system ranges from the central to southern Plains.

Once developed, there is loose agreement between the global models that a sub 1000mb system develops, especially if phasing of the northern stream occurs. If phasing occurs, the system deepens and eventually occluding as it slowly moves east or east northeast. Thus the potential exists for a widespread rain if the system passes near or just south of the area. Such a track would also create windy conditions as the system strengthens.

Right now the model consensus is targeting the Monday/Tuesday time frame for the best rain chances. I would not be surprised if the better rain chances are delayed 12-24 hours depending upon when/where the system develops.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. South winds to increase ahead of a cold front Wednesday afternoon, with occasional gusts over 20kts. In addition, some light VFR showers/sprinkles may occur just beyond the TAF cycle Wednesday evening along with some lower VFR cigs.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.