textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with mostly cloudy skies today.

- Forecast trending drier through the weekend, with a warming trend Sunday into next week. Above normal temperatures likely for much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive and persistent stratus deck across much of IA and northwest IL, with a small pocket of clearing over southeast IA, northeast MO, and west central IL. These clouds are trapped underneath an inversion shown around 900mb on our 00z DVN sounding last evening. DVN VAD wind profile at 1 am shows north northwest winds 15-20 kts in this cloud bearing layer. Temperatures at 2am, were in the lower to mid 20s.

All model guidance has struggled with the evolution of these clouds overnight and given the time of year, I have trended to a more pessimistic cloud cover forecast for at least this morning. Some breaks/filtered sun will still be possible late morning/early afternoon, with the back edge of the stratus in northwest WI progged to reach our northern border around 15z per AWIPS time of arrival tool. The far south may start off the day with some sun, but additional mid-high level clouds will move in from the west ahead of a weak shortwave. Temperatures will not rise much from morning values, only topping out in the mid to upper 20s or similar to yesterday's highs.

The aforementioned shortwave to pass to our southwest tonight, keeping the better forcing/moisture out of the CWA. Dry conditions are maintained in the forecast, with cloud cover once again the main factor on how cold we get overnight. Raised lows a few degrees into the upper teens/low 20s with the expected cloud cover.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 201 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Western CONUS upper ridge to slide east to start the period and flatten to a more zonal flow early next week. This will bring dry and seasonable conditions through Sunday, with a warming trend next week. Periodic bouts of cloudiness could make for somewhat challenging temperature forecasts.

Several shortwaves will move through the flow aloft topping the ridge and largely remaining to our north. The latest 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance keeps the better lift/moisture across MN/WI for both the Sunday night and Tuesday systems. As a result, only a slight chance PoP (<20%) in Stephenson county remains. WPC also lowered its measurable QPF (>0.01") footprint Sunday night, which is now almost all in WI. This also aligns with the latest NBM 24 hour QPF probability for greater than 0.01" less than 20% for all periods through Wednesday. Still, will have to keep an eye on the potential for light warm advection precip Sunday night in northern IL, where thermal profiles suggest a brief wintry mix would be possible.

Regarding temperatures, a warming trend is forecast beginning Sunday and lasting through most if not all of next week. 850mb temps will rise above 0C Sunday afternoon and will remain above freezing through Friday night. Above normal temperatures are likely and is highlighted well in CPC's 6-10 day temp outlook through Jan 11th (75% probability of above normal temps). Normal highs Jan 6-11th are in the upper 20s/lower 30s and normal lows are near 10/teens. Latest NBM probabilities for high temperatures greater than 50 degrees are 40-80% along and south of I-80 Monday through Wednesday. Will have to keep tabs on the warmup for any additional break-up ice jam potential on some of our area tributary rivers.

The next chance of any appreciable precipitation looks to occur late next week and through next weekend, as several pieces of energy eject northeast from digging western trof. Unfortunately, the timing, location, and evolution of these systems and how they interact with any northern stream energy remains to be seen this far out. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Visible satellite imagery shows the MVFR stratus with ceilings 1500-2500ft agl clearing at KDBQ and near KCID at the start of the TAF period. Anticipate a continued gradual decrease/ clearing of the MVFR stratus at KMLI and KBRL, as northerly winds in the cloud bearing layer (0.5km) veer northeast and continue to usher in slight dry advection with the main challenge being on the timing. Otherwise, a system passing to our south/west will produced VFR mid/high cloudiness during the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.