textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Some rain will be possible through Monday as the blocking pattern weakens. However, widespread rainfall will not be seen.

- Rain chances will return the second half of next week as the blocking pattern shifts to the east coast. Again, however, widespread rainfall is not expected.

- The lack of rain and the low prospects of rain next week is expected to result in an expansion of the abnormally dry conditions with increased probability of moderate drought developing.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Diurnal convection along a theta e gradient and weak convergence will persist through sunset today south of a Belle Plaine, IA to Galesburg, IL line. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.

A developing weakness in the omega block across the central CONUS will allow low (20-30%) chances for rain tonight through Monday but not all areas will see rain. Persistent deep and dry easterly flow will continue across the area which will keep dew points mainly in the 50s with occasional 40s and infrequent 60s.

As a result, diurnal convection will develop in the Plains each day and move east overnight. The convection will be in a decaying mode as it hits the drier air across eastern Iowa in the pre-dawn hours. Boundaries left over from the convection would provide the focus for new diurnal convection across the area IF sufficient moisture is available.

Temperatures will continue to average above normal through Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Thursday through Saturday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of above normal temperatures

The omega block across the central CONUS will slowly shift to the east coast the second half of the week. The net result is there will finally be southerly flow from the Gulf developing that brings moisture into the area. Thus there will be prospects for rain. However, widespread rainfall will not be seen.

The model consensus has a 20-30% chance of rain for parts of the area as soon as Thursday with 20-40% chances of rain area-wide from Thursday night through Saturday. However, the Gulf moisture is lagging on Thursday so I would not be surprised to see a the rain chances being delayed 12-24 hours until the Gulf moisture arrives.

With the prospects of rain not overly great, the next update to the drought monitor has a 60% probability of putting all of eastern Iowa and northern Illinois into abnormally dry conditions. Some of the already classified abnormally dry conditions have a 20% probability of going into moderate drought.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A lake-enhanced cold front is currently moving across the area and will provide gusty winds up to 30 knots out of the east overnight. A SCT-to-BKN mixed layered cloud deck currently draped across the region with VFR bases is expected to lower and fill out into Sunday morning as mid-level moisture moves in from the southwest. There is the low (20-30%) chance at light thunderstorms developing along a westerly outflow boundary at KCID and KBRL Sunday morning with MVFR conditions briefly possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions to persist through Sunday afternoon with a mid-level OVC cloud deck and winds lightening to 5-10 knots as they turn out of the southeast.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.