textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures, dry conditions, and hazy skies likely through Thursday.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms likely (60-90%) Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Yet another seasonable late July day is in store today, Early morning satellite shows areas of high clouds over southeast Iowa and west central Illinois, which will move off around sunrise. Northerly to northeasterly winds will continue throughout the day as we sit on the southern fringes of high pressure over Wisconsin. This will help keep temperatures and dewpoints subdued to the low to upper 80s and upper 60s to mid 70s. Another factor that will help limit temperatures is wildfire smoke aloft, which is expected to remain in high concentrations over the next several days.

Thursday will be quite similar. As the 500 mb ridge retrogrades westward, the high over Wisconsin will slide southward and settle just to our east over northeast Illinois. As winds shift from northeasterly to southeasterly, temperatures will be slightly warmer in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Thursday Night through Saturday...

Thursday night marks a slight change in the pattern from the previous couple days as a shortwave trough becomes rooted in the upstream flow. Ahead of the wave, moisture advection will amplify overnight, bringing in PWATs of 1.7-2.0 inches by midday Friday. This, along with broad lift along the warm conveyor belt, will support a widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday morning through Saturday morning. The environment remains unfavorable for severe storms due to the lack of instability, but this event will provide much-needed rainfall. 24-hour accumulations of at least 1 inch are possible, ranging from a 30% chance in northeast Missouri to a 70% chance north of Interstate 80. As is common at this length prior to the event, there remains uncertainty in where the axis of heaviest rainfall will be due to uncertainty in the track. Guidance falls into two scenarios: one with the track across northern Iowa into northwest Illinois and the other across central Missouri. With the northern track, the highest accumulations are across the northern half of the CWA, while with the southern track, the highest accumulations are across the central to southern CWA.

With widespread rainfall, temperatures on Friday will fall into the 70s. These below normal temperatures will continue on Saturday, though slightly warmer as clouds and rainfall clear out around midday. The bigger story for Saturday is the potential for gusty winds behind the departing system. A tight pressure gradient will induce gusty northwesterly winds up to 30 mph across the area, with the strongest gusts in southeast Iowa. Synoptically-driven gusty winds like this are unusual for early August, as is noted by EFI values of 0.6-0.85 from north to south. These winds will taper off as the low progresses further east through Saturday evening.

Sunday through Tuesday...

Once again, high pressure will settle over the Great Lakes. This will support a series of pleasant and dry early August days with temperatures slowly rising into the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Current satellite imagery shows an area of SCT to BKN high clouds moving southeast across eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Once these clear out around 29/12Z, skies will be clear, save a FEW to SCT deck of clouds at 4000 ft making their way into areas near DBQ by 29/18Z. Despite the lack of clouds through much of the day, the sky will appear hazy due to smoke aloft. Winds will be light and variable to easterly through the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.