textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An elevated fire risk continues during the daylight hours today and Tuesday for the area.

- Scattered thunderstorms tonight mainly along and north of I-80, with a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Southwest flow aloft will bring moisture into the Midwest with a high (>80%) probability of moderate to heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Windy and very warm conditions will be seen across the area today. Record highs will be challenged today. Refer to the climate section for specific information.

An elevated fire risk will again be seen in spite of humidity levels slowly climbing. Refer to the fire weather section for more information.

Tonight continues to look interesting.

Initially, dry conditions will be seen across the area. However, as the evening progresses convection will slowly break out as a weak upper level disturbance moves into the area. This disturbance combined with the strengthening low level jet will initiate nocturnal convection.

Coverage of the convection will be isolated to scattered (15-35%) in nature with areas along and north of I-80 being favored. Timing looks to be the late evening and overnight hours. Forecast profiles of the atmosphere indicate a capping inversion in place so the storms that develop will be elevated in nature.

The better severe risk looks to be in Wisconsin which is where SPC has placed the bulk of the new slight risk. However, areas north of I-80 do have a severe risk.

Since the storms will be elevated, hail is the primary risk. IF storms remain discrete, then fairly significant severe hail will be possible. If storm are more multicellular in nature, then the severe hail would be marginal but there would be copious amounts of sub- severe hail.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tuesday/Tuesday night Assessment...high (>90%) confidence of another strong cold front. Medium (40-60%) confidence on storms

Tuesday morning there should be lingering nocturnal convection across the area that will dissipate as the LLJ weakens.

Windy conditions will be seen Tuesday with very warm temperatures ahead of the strong cold front. There are models suggesting a 15 to near 20 degree temperature drop in the first two hours following the frontal passage.

The timing of the front and how long the nocturnal convection lasts into the morning will dictate the overall severe risk for the area. Some solutions have the front to essentially the I-80 corridor by mid-day and south of the area by sunset. This scenario is similar to last Thursday. Other solutions have the front north of I-80 by mid- day Tuesday. Another factor that needs to be considered is the potential cap in place on the warm side of the front. Such a cap would delay convective initiation Tuesday afternoon.

Taking all this into consideration, the most plausible scenario is nocturnal convection along and north of the front persisting into late morning and then ending. Partial clearing in the afternoon increasing the differential heating as the frontal boundary moves south. Diurnal convection starts developing in the late afternoon but grows upscale during the evening.

If the above scenario occurs, then the severe risk would be marginal severe hail and wind immediately ahead and behind the front. The most likely time frame would be 4-11 PM with areas south of I-80 being favored for any severe storms.

Convection that develops in the late afternoon/evening would them persist into the overnight hours.

Wednesday through Saturday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of another cool down followed by a warm-up. Medium to high (50-70%) confidence of at least two rounds of rain occurring.

Much cooler conditions will be seen across the area on Wednesday with high temperatures mainly in the 40s.

The question Wednesday is where does the cold front stall out. The model solutions agree that it will be south of the area. However, the solutions show a bimodal distribution. About 40% of the global models stall the front across central Missouri into southern Illinois. The other 60% stall the front out across northern Missouri into central Illinois.

The more southern stall would increase the prospects that most of Wednesday would be dry across the area. The northern stall would suggest the prospects of post frontal showers across the southern half of the area.

From the large synoptic scale, the Gulf is progged to be wide open with a LLJ of 35-40 knots streaming moisture into the area. Upglide across the frontal zone would allow elevated showers to occur well north of the front.

So while there is a bimodal distribution to the model solutions, the actual stall will probably occur somewhere in between but favoring the northern stall. As such the south half of the area will see scattered showers through much of the day.

Wednesday night through Thursday night the models agree there will be a seasonably strong low that will move along the stalled front. The track will be important as cooling of the atmosphere will determine where the rain/snow mix occurs Wednesday night.

Right now it appears the initial upper air disturbance will pass along or just east of the Mississippi. Such a track would allow a rain/snow mix to occur north of Highway 30 Wednesday night with thunderstorms across the south third of the area.

The main low for the system will move through the area Thursday afternoon/evening with a potential track through eastern Iowa.

What is interesting with the Wednesday night through Thursday night system is the strength of the vapor transport. The integrated vapor transport has values over 1000 kg per meter squared per second; values that we have not seen in quite some time. Such values correlate nicely with heavy rain. Indeed the consensus QPF has 1 to 2 inches of rain which, given the synoptic scenario, has a high probability (>70%) of being a widespread soaking rain.

There may be a brief intermission with the rain on Friday before another system moves through the Midwest Friday night through Saturday night. Like the previous system, there will be a tropical connection with the Gulf. However the IVT values are only 600-800 suggesting the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall. While this rain may not be as widespread as the previous system, it holds the prospect of bringing another round of much needed rain to the area.

Sunday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of dry conditions with temperatures near normal.

The model consensus has a Canadian high moving through the Midwest on Sunday. The recently departing system will result in breezy conditions which will add an additional chill to the air.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Winds are forecast to remain from the southwest through today, with gusts up to 25 kts. Stronger gusts up to 30kts are possible late this afternoon as stronger winds mix down from aloft. Tonight, a LLJ will lead to increased LLWS and support thunderstorms. Confidence in thunderstorm coverage and MVFR conditions by 03Z is highest at KCID, leading to a TEMPO there. These thunderstorms will have the potential for hail as they move through the area. Uncertainty remains in the north-south extent of these thunderstorms as they move eastward, leading to PROB30 for thunderstorms and MVFR conditions at KDBQ, KMLI, and KBRL into the early morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Monday...

GFDI values are forecast to be very high across the area resulting in an elevated fire risk. Humidity levels will slowly increase during the day but deep mixing will drop humidity levels into the 30-40 percent range. Although the humidity levels are marginally low, the wind combined with the dried vegetation could push parts of the area to borderline red flag conditions.

Tuesday...

Additional moisture arriving on Tuesday will temper the drop in humidity levels. However, windy conditions along with warm temperatures ahead of the cold front will create an elevated fire risk.

CLIMATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record highs for March 30th....

Burlington.........84 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......82 in 1943 Dubuque............81 in 1943 Moline.............82 in 1986 and previous years

Record highs for March 31st....

Burlington.........82 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......81 in 1986 Dubuque............79 in 1986 Moline.............83 in 1986

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.