textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures will remain through midweek, with a pattern change introducing warming temperatures and increasing humidity late in the week and through the weekend.

- A more active pattern takes shape during the second half of the work week, introducing more chances for showers and storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Upper ridge continues to slowly shift east towards the Great Lakes Region, with a surface high pressure passing through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will bring tranquil conditions to the area for the remainder of the day, with a mix of clouds/sun and light northeasterly winds. Mostly clear skies and light winds tonight will allow us to cool into the mid-upper 50s for most. With high pressure overhead and moist soils from previous rainfall, wouldn't be shocked to see some fog develop, especially in river valleys. Guidance remains divided on the fog potential, but ensemble guidance is indicating about a 30-50% chance, with the higher end of that range along river valley locations. Thus, will be something to monitor through the evening and night.

Tomorrow will be another beautiful day, essentially a copy of today's weather, with temperatures a few degrees warmer and less cloud cover. Dry conditions are expected, with winds becoming more southeasterly ahead of a midweek system. Enjoy the nice start to the work week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Tuesday through Wednesday, upper wave moves into the north-central CONUS, digging southeast towards the Upper Midwest. This will help push the aforementioned ridge east of the area, inducing llvl southwesterly flow over the area through this timeframe. This will help increase temperatures, especially on Tuesday, along with moisture. A weak bout of energy ahead of the the main shortwave will pass through Tuesday afternoon and into the night. Moisture and forcing will be marginal at that time, limiting precipitation until later in the evening and Tuesday night. Best moisture will be in our northwest near the approaching surface boundary, where we will start to see showers/storms move into the area. Best chances for precipitation will be after midnight Tuesday and through Wednesday, when the stronger shortwave will move through the area with the slow moving boundary passing through. Thus, surface and upper level forcing will favor showers/storms Wednesday, especially for areas along/south of Interstate 80. Much uncertainty exists regarding moisture availability and timing of frontal passage. Thus, this will be something to keep an eye on for updates over the coming days. Overall, the severe threat seems low/limited. Best chances for any stronger storms will be Wednesday afternoon along/south of Interstate 80, where we will be able to build some instability. Overall instability/shear balance seems meager at this time though.

After the midweek system passes, we will remain on the southern end of a broad upper trof over the central CONUS, placing us under the path of shortwaves passing along the flow. Thus, we will continue to see near-daily Slight-Chance PoPs late week through the weekend, especially with a baroclinic zone remaining draped over the region. At this time, there seems to be plenty of dry time between waves. Thus, a complete washout is not expected at this time. Guidance favors stronger southwest flow in the llvls under this pattern, which will allow for temperatures and humidity to increase during this timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to largely dominate the TAF period. However, there is the potential for fog overnight into early Monday morning with a weak surface ridge providing ideal radiational cooling (mainly clear skies and near calm to light winds) to go along with a moist ground from recent rainfall. I have opted to add MVFR visibility at the terminals given the favorable setup and also likelihood of dew point depressions below 10 degrees around sunset which tends to support 2-5SM BR. Can't rule out some lower visibility of IFR to LIFR and patchy CIGs 500 ft or less, and will have to continue to evaluate obs/ trends for any adjustments for the 06z TAFs. Light NE winds will turn variable to calm tonight then shift from S/SE 5-12 kt by Monday afternoon with the surface ridge departing.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.