textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper is forecast to bring occasional light snow to the area from late this afternoon into Friday morning. Snowfall amounts between a dusting to near 2" are possible.

- Scattered snow showers are likely Friday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region. Isolated heavier snow showers or snow squalls are possible, which could lead to treacherous travel conditions due to sudden and significant reductions in visibility and slippery roads.

- Additional chances for light snow and flurries will continue through Saturday; expect seasonably cold conditions into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A shortwave trough will track through the Upper Mississippi Valley region tonight with the attendant surface low moving toward Lake Superior. This will place eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois in a zone of warm air advection tonight ahead of a cold front. Expect an area of light snow to develop mainly this evening and shift west to east through the area by early tonight. Another round is possible after midnight. Model consensus has trended higher on the QPF for the overnight into Friday AM with a few hundredths to 0.10"+ possible. Counties along and east of the Mississippi River continue to have the higher probabilities for 1"+ of snowfall with WPC's ensemble distribution showing 40-50%+ in this area, and lower chances to the west. The main concerns overnight into Friday AM will be slippery travel conditions and brief visibility reductions to under 1 mile possible in the steadiest snow.

A strong cold front will move through Friday afternoon/evening, leading to a quick drop in temperatures from the 30s to the 20s/teens. Forecast soundings show an unstable boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates, low values of SBCAPE, and the upper portion of the shallow convective cloud layer well within the DGZ. This environment is supportive of scattered snow showers across the area and even the potential for a few snow squalls. The latest RAP has the snow squall parameter reaching 2-4 during the afternoon (highest over the southeast two- thirds of the area), coincident with a west to east oriented band of low- level frontogenesis near and south of the Quad Cities.

As mentioned, temperatures will be near or above freezing into the midday to early afternoon period before quickly falling through the 20s and teens into the evening which could lead to icy roadways where the heavier snow showers pass through. Expect windy and cold conditions Friday night with lows in the single digits/teens and wind chills below zero. With cyclonic flow aloft, and very cold low-level thermal profiles, occasional light snow and flurries are possible through the night into Saturday which could result in additional minor accumulations along with slippery travel conditions.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Saturday through Tuesday: The cold core upper low will set the stage for a below normal cold Saturday and Sunday with occasional snow showers and flurries, especially Saturday. Sunday temps may be helped on the milder side by a passing clipper to the north and northeast. If this system verifies, we may have some snow showers late in the day into Sunday night in the following cold push in the wake of this system. Cold re- enforcing air flowing down across the region behind this system for Monday with below normal values again Long range thermal profiles suggest that if we have any snow cover for Monday night, there may be some below zero temps occurring especially north. Additionally, wind chill values in the single digits and teens below zero are possible especially on Sunday night and Monday night. Low confidence on precip chances into next week with the NBM mainly dry. However, another clipper will move through the Midwest/Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday and could bring some light snow to portions of the outlook area depending on the exact track -- something to watch in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 508 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

An active northwest flow pattern will result in on and off light snow and flurries through Friday. The first round of light snow is expected to begin in the next hour or two, potentially accompanied by brief MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. More widespread MVFR ceilings are anticipated to overspread the area into Friday AM. Gusty S to W winds are expected through the period, between 20 to 30 kts at times. While more isolated in nature and not in our TAF yet, there could be some rather strong snow showers Friday afternoon and evening around the area. These would not last long at any location, but could bring a quick inch of snow, and IFR conditions and gusty winds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.