textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm conditions through Monday, with near record warmth Monday. The risk for agricultural field fires has decreased slightly for the rest of the weekend.

- Rain chances Wednesday and Thursday, with highest chances (50-70%) south of I-80 for measurable rain.

- Cooler and more seasonable late week and into next weekend, with increasing frost/freeze potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A beautiful albeit warm October day is occurring outside today, with just some cirrus clouds from the remnants of Isaias moving north over western and northwest IL. Temperatures have quickly risen into the low 80s area-wide as of 1pm, much faster than most models had today. Our 18z DVN sounding sampled 16.6C at 850mb, which was 1.4 degrees warmer than yesterday.

Rest of Today/Tonight

Breezy south winds to occasionally gust around 20 mph this afternoon and combined with plentiful sunshine to result in highs reaching the mid 80s for some. This is not that far off from record highs at MLI/BRL and have included these in the climate section below for reference. South winds and little change in WAA to keep temps from dropping too much overnight, with lows only low to mid 50s.

Sunday-Monday

Post tropical Isaias to push east over the Ohio river valley, with a broad ridge setting up shop over the central CONUS. A weak surface low to track from NE into southeast MN with the CWA fully engulfed in the warm sector ahead of it. 850mb temps are progged similar to today for Sunday, increasing to an impressive 22C on Monday; a record daily max value and very close to the warmest 850mb temp for October! The warmest value was 22.2C on the 12z Oct 10th 2021 sounding per SPC climatology. Near record temps are forecast. See climate section for details. The NBM and frankly most models have been too cold lately likely attributed to model Tds too high. Something to watch in later forecast is just how high Tds get for Monday which could adversely affect the temperature forecast. We will either be noticeably humid and fall short of record highs Monday or less humid and tie/break record record highs. I'm ready for true Fall weather with no mosquitos, not record highs.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 144 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Main focus after Columbus Day will be on rain chances mid-week and a transition to more seasonable temps next weekend and perhaps some frost/freeze potential.

Monday-Tuesday Night...a weak cold front to move through early Tuesday, with the NBM showing some slight chance PoPs across northwest IL. However, moisture availability will be limited and it may end up being just a dry fropa. A 1023 mb sfc high to build into the upper Midwest in the wake of the front bringing dry and pleasant conditions for the rest of Tuesday and at least part of Wednesday. Despite chance PoPs in the forecast, I wouldn't be surprised if easterly low level flow keeps the daylight hours Wednesday dry for much of the CWA. There is also some model discrepancies in availible moisture, strength of WAA, and forcing along an 850mb theta-e gradient.

Wednesday night-Thursday...a weak upper level wave is progged to lift northeast out of the Plains ahead of western CONUS low and perhaps including some remnant moisture from Hurricane Simon. Where this wave goes will largely be dependent on strength of the upper high centered over the lower Mississippi River valley. In any case, this period to bring high chance/low likely PoPs (40-60%) for scattered showers and isolated storms. While NBM/ENS/GEFS 24hr probabilities for >0.10" QPF ending 00z Fri have decreased, they are still in the 55-80% range (highest values on the GEFS and south of I-80). Thursday highs will be dependent on cloud cover/precip but are expected to be closer to seasonable numbers, with highs in the mid 60s/low 70s.

Friday-Next Weekend...cooler and more seasonable conditions are forecast as a cold front moves through the area. As expected at this time range, there is considerable differences in deterministic and ensemble solutions with regards to evolution of upper level features. The GFS/GEFS want to eject the western CONUS upper low faster than the ECMWF/ENS and phase it with another stronger upper low moving east over Canada. The result would bring a colder airmass into the upper Midwest leading to a frost/freeze potential over the weekend. The AIGEFS and ECMWF AFIS solutions are not as cold, but would be closer to the GFS/GEFS and will be something to watch in later runs. The 00z LREF 100 member ensemble has 56% of its members, with a low temp of 40 degrees or lower for DBQ on Saturday.

Looking further ahead, ensemble data suggests largely a dry pattern taking shape for the middle of October with very low probabilities of QPF >0.10". The latest CPC Day 8-14 day precipitation outlook shows greater than 75% combined probability of near/below normal precipitation for the Oct 17th-23rd time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the period with high level clouds on the periphery of the remnants of Isaias brushing the area tonight, followed by mainly clear skies on Sunday. More high level cloudiness arrives from the west late in the period and just beyond, attendant to an upper level jet shifting from the Plains into the Upper Midwest. SSE winds will diminish to around 10 kt with sunset. LLWS potential is low/marginal at KCID and KDBQ tonight (01z-09z) with a ramping LLJ of 30-35 kt in 1-2kft agl layer, and therefore I have left out mention. Will continue to monitor VWP and obs though and amend if needed for KDBQ, while KCID will continue with AMD NOT SKED due to transmission line issues. Winds on Sunday will increase from the SSW at 10-15 kt with sporadic gusts around 20 kt possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Record High Temperatures:

October 10: KMLI: 88/1938 KBRL: 88/1963

October 12: KBRL: 86/2024 KCID: 88/1995 KDBQ: 85/1886 KMLI: 87/1947

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

October 12: KDBQ: 64/1997 KMLI: 68/1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.