textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers are expected through the late evening, a few of which could be on the heavier side. Gusty NW winds between 30 to 40 mph will blow around any snow that falls resulting in further reductions in visibility.

- An area of light snow will move in from the north late tonight into Saturday morning leading to minor accumulations.

- An active pattern will be seen through the weekend with clipper systems bringing occasional light snow and flurries to the area. Very cold conditions are expected Sunday into Monday with wind chills in the teens and 20s below zero late Sunday night into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

SPC mesoanalysis had a 996mb low centered over the U.P. of Michigan with a cold front draped to the southwest into eastern Iowa. Warm air advection via WSW winds ahead of the front have pushed early afternoon temperatures into the mid 30s to lower 40s across much of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The mild conditions will be short lived as the cold front punches through this afternoon and temperatures quickly fall into the 20s and teens into the evening. We are still looking at the potential for scattered snow showers this afternoon into early tonight; however, with the scattered nature some areas will likely get missed. The HRRR has been consistently developing an organized, albeit narrow, band of snow (a horizontal convective roll) over central Iowa during the mid/late afternoon and then advecting it downstream into our west-central/NW counties. The most likely area to be impacted by this heavier narrow band of snow is west and northwest of the Quad Cities, roughly along and south of Highway 30 and down toward the I-80 corridor. Depending on the intensity of the band, brief/sudden visibility reductions to under a half mile are possible and adding to the impacts will be gusty winds of 30-40 mph! Confidence remains low on whether the few narrow bands of heavier snow will reach snow squall intensity largely due to marginal low-level instability, but it's something we will continue to monitor closely. As mentioned, temperatures will quickly fall through the 20s and teens this evening into tonight so there is some potential for icy roadways.

Expect windy and cold conditions tonight with lows in the single digits/teens and wind chills below zero. With cyclonic flow aloft, and very cold low-level thermal profiles, occasional light snow is likely with increasing chances across the north late tonight leading to minor accumulations and slippery travel.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Saturday: Occasional light snow is likely across portions of the area, with the highest chances in the counties along and north of I-80 Saturday AM into the afternoon as another 500mb vorticity max rotates across the area. Models have come into better agreement on widespread light QPF between a few hundredths to up to ~0.07" and with SLRs between 13-17:1, additional snowfall amounts from midnight Friday night through Saturday afternoon could range between 0.5 to ~1.5 inches, highest north of I-80. The snow will be falling with air temperatures in the teens, likely resulting in slick pavement/slippery travel conditions.

Sunday through Monday Assessment...A certainty (>95%) of seeing wind chills below zero at night and during the morning.

Sunday has more uncertainty. The model consensus again has a 20-30 percent chance of seeing flurries or light snow north of Highway 30. However, the ECMWF, CMC, ICON and UKMET deterministic runs have a snow potential over more of the area. The ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS are also hinting at more areal coverage of snow on Sunday.

The mean of the ensembles from the EPS, GEPS and ICON-EPS suggest more areal coverage as well. The GEFS has a majority of its members showing dry or mainly dry conditions. Thus the model consensus right now is being biased to the drier GEFS. It usually takes several runs of the model consensus to catch on to a changing trend.

The more significant message Sunday into Monday will be the cold temperatures and sub-zero wind chills. Saturday night into Sunday morning looks to see wind chills of zero to 10 below. The larger concern is Sunday night into Monday where wind chills may exceed 20 below zero along/north of Highway 30 and 10 to 20 below south of highway 30. While a bit early this far out, the probability does exist for the need of cold weather headlines Sunday night into Monday morning. Right now the probability looks to be 30-40 percent.

Monday night through Thursday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on mainly dry conditions. High (60-80%) confidence on moderating temperatures

The model consensus has dry conditions through the period with moderating temperatures as the flow pattern aloft becomes more zonal. The trend on moderating temperatures looks good. However, there are questions regarding the dry conditions.

There is at least one weak disturbance progged to move through the area in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. However, the timing varies greatly among the deterministic models. A majority of the respective ensemble members are also dry so the weak signal for snow is being lost by the background error noise. So while the model consensus is dry, I cannot fully rule out a potential for light snow during the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame with the northern half of the area being favored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 514 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Breezy conditions with frequent flurries and a few brief snow showers with MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected through this evening. Overnight, a dry period with less flurries is expected to transition to another period of MVFR with light snow, mainly north of Highway 30. Some light accumulations are expected, with potential IFR visibility in light fluffy snow and continuous winds of 14 to 25 kts. The stratocumulus is expected to gradually thin and lift in the late morning and afternoon hours Saturday, with higher MVFR to VFR cigs after 18Z in most of the region.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.