textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder conditions still on track for the weekend along with mainly dry conditions.

- Trending a bit milder mid-week with a clipper type low pressure system bringing the next chances for precip in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Tonight...Cloud cover a bit of a challenge tonight with post-system subsidence and drying trying to erode them into the evening period. May try to trend this way, but then steering flow in the cloud layer will then try to advect more lower clouds out of MN back acrs portions of the DVN CWA later tonight after midnight and into early Sat morning. This may have a bit of an impact on overnight low temps acrs the northern half and new snow cover areas, keeping temps up in the teens to near 20. If they don't make it, currently advertised low temps especially in the northwest, won't be cold enough. Enough LLVL pressure gradient to keep west to northwest sfc winds going 8-12 KTs overnight, and wind chills toward dawn may range from the lower teens southeast to low single digits in the northwest.

Saturday...Water vapor imagery was indicating a nice little vort max just east of the 4-Corners area, and steering patterns will advect this wave right acrs the CWA Sat morning. There will be the lift, but moisture for light snow or flurries marginal at best. For now will keep unmentionable POPs, but if we have the morning stratocu there could be some flurries acrs portions of the fcst area. Otherwise there will be a mix of clouds and sun helping temps up into the lower 30s where there is little to no snow cover, and the 20s in the snow cover areas of the northwest.

Sat night...Another wave of bigger size will dig into a deepening upper trof base acrs the western GRT LKS and OH RVR Valley this period. Again marginal at best moisture associated with this system, but it may have a better shot of producing light snow or flurries in the eastern CWA later Sat night into Sunday morning. Have trended in the grids by over-ruling the dry NBM and putting at least some slight CHC POPs in the far eastern CWA for now.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Sunday...Another re-enforcing sfc ridge gradient will make for a blustery chilly day with northwest winds of 15 to 25 MPH and temperatures in the 20s. If we have some lower clouds, the action upstairs on the western flank of the longer wave trof may wring out some flurries in spots.

Monday through Thursday...Latest medium range ensembles show less amplitude with the mid week steering flow acrs the central CONUS, but still some northwest tilt that may allow for a clipper type low to ripple along similarly oriented LLVL baroclinicity for the next more organized precip chances by midweek/Wed into Thu time frame. Plenty of time to assess, but there may be some precip type issues, especially at night if this system can make it acrs portions of the local fcst area. There still looks to be some thickness increase for sfc temp improvement or moderation into the mid week, with 40s and even some 50s having a chance to occur.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR stratus is lurking near KDBQ at the start of the TAF period, and extends into far NE Iowa and SW Wisconsin. VWP data at KARX in the cloud bearing layer reveals a northerly wind at 20 kt, which supports the latest southerly propagation in Nighttime Microphysics and thus warrants a prevailing mention of MVFR (1500-2500 ft agl) at KDBQ for at least the first several hours of the TAF. Confidence lowers on lower CIG trends at KDBQ by Saturday morning, and it's possible a period of VFR / scattering out / occurs but the CU rule supports potential for redevelopment of lower clouds and perhaps transitory bouts of MVFR ceilings by mid morning Saturday through midday. In addition to the lower clouds, some light flurries are possible but not expecting any impacts to visibility and therefore left out mention. The northerly flow in the cloud bearing layer could bring these MVFR clouds close to KCID and KMLI toward 12z and throughout Saturday morning, but lower confidence exists with the extent of the cloud deck and precludes any lower CIG mentions at these sites for now though will monitor trends for any changes. Winds will be from W/NW around 10 kt and occasionally gust 15-20 kt Saturday, with more frequent gusts developing late Saturday through Saturday evening to around 25 kt with a weak front and well mixed BL tapping into 20-25 kt winds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.