textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant travel impacts expected tonight into Monday with very strong winds and blowing snow leading to blizzard conditions. This will likely impact the Monday AM commute. - There remains a Marginal (level 1 of 5) and Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms today.

- Colder Monday and Tuesday, before warmer temperatures return by the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Headline Updates:

Delayed start time of Blizzard Warning in western counties, added several counties to the High Wind Warning, and expanded eastern segment of the Blizzard Warning further south and east.

Very complex and dynamic system on track to bring showers and storms this morning through mid-afternoon followed by sharply falling temperatures and strengthening winds tonight/early Monday. Blizzard conditions (at least 3hr duration of >35mph winds, falling/blowing snow, and 1/4mi vsby) are expected for most of the forecast area creating hazardous travel lasting through the Monday AM commute. This combined with freezing temperatures after rain washes away all of the treatment on roads, will lead to significant impacts even in areas forecast to get as little as 2 inches of snow! Consider delaying travel if at all possible!

Severe Risk

A very strong LLJ (60-70kts) ahead of an 850mb low in southwest IA combined with MUCAPEs around 1000 J/Kg and steep mid-level lapse rates, will support a WAA wing of elevated showers and isolated storms this morning through 10am. These will bring a marginal severe hail risk with the stronger cores.

Attention then turns to the HSLC setup for early afternoon ahead of a cold front. Surface dewpoints to increase into the low to mid 50s south of I-80, with model SBCAPEs progged in the 400-600 J/Kg range across west central and north central IL. With soundings showing nicely curved hodographs in the low levels, a tornado or two is not out of the question. It will definitely be a day to watch the evolution of the instability surging north. This threat will quickly move to the east during the afternoon, where STP progs are highest after 21z across central IL.

High Wind and Blizzard Risk

New 00z guidance continues to come in with a stronger and deeper surface low tonight, as the open wave becomes negatively tilted into a closed low right overhead around 06z Monday. The pressure gradient between the 983mb surface low and 1035mb surface high in the Plains will yield a very impressive wind field and forecast soundings show 60kts at top of mixed layer tonight. For these reasons, I have expanded the High Wind Warning across northwest IL and slightly further south where the 00z HREF/REFS probs of 50-60 mph winds are the highest. Can't rule out an upgrade in our far southern IL counties either today.

Behind the fropa today, temperatures will quickly fall below freezing with strong dynamical cooling in the TROWAL changing all precipitation over to snow. 00z HREF combined probabilities of at least a half mile vsby and 30mph winds are well over 60% for this event. In addition, strong omegas in the DGZ particularly 02-09z tonight to support snowfall rates between 0.5"-1.5"/hr possible. With the strong winds, these dendrites will become fractured and thereby reducing total snowfall amounts. SLRs will start out low in the 13:1 to 14:1 and further increase through the event into the 16 to 17:1 range yielding 3-6 inch snowfall amounts. Again, these lower totals do not mean that impacts will be lessened at all and should not be messaged as such. Lastly, NBM/REFS/HREF probs for <0.5 mi vsby have increased over much of the CWA and for this reason after much collaboration with neighboring offices, I have expanded the Blizzard warning further south and east. Further refinements in time and area may still be needed today and we will continue to look at observational and model trends to determine this. Even if you don't see true blizzard conditions, this storm will create dangerous travel conditions and should be taken seriously.

Snow will end from west to east mid-morning Monday, with gusty winds decreasing a few hours later. However, blowing/drifting snow may still be an issue going into the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the period. Another fast moving storms system will move across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will bring a chance of snow to the area. Snowfall amounts will be light with this storm system.

After a cold start to the week, warm up is forecast to begin across the area on Wednesday with temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s by the end of the week.

There is another subtle shortwave in the flow toward the end of the week but there is disagreement on the timing and location of this wave and its impact on the area. Currently, the forecast is dry with the better forcing and moisture to our north.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 709 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very active 24-30 hours are expected over our area, as a potent area of low pressure over northeastern Kansas lifts over our region later today. Largely VFR conditions as of TAF issuance will give way to MVFR as some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop this morning. CID and DBQ are more likely to see thunderstorms than MLI and BRL, although some isolated storms have developed over southeastern Iowa. Another round of showers and storms are possible this afternoon, with MVFR to IFR conditions. As the area of low pressure moves through late this morning into the early afternoon, expect a dramatic wind direction shift from the south and east currently, turning from the northwest after it passes.

Late this afternoon through Monday morning, the northerly winds will greatly intensify, with forecast wind gusts of 40 to 50+ knots, along with a transition from rain to snow. Snowfall rates could reach up to 1"/hour, and initially start out as a wet snow but become more of a dry, fluffy snow. Once it does, BLSN should increase, producing visibilities of a 1/2SM or less in blizzard conditions.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Blizzard Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>053-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098- 099. High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ054-066-068. IL...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ015-024>026. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>017-024>026. High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ILZ017-018. Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Monday afternoon for ILZ018. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ034-035. MO...High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010.