textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon/Thursday night. Damaging wind and heavy rain are the primary threats.

- The next threat for more active weather is early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A pleasantly mild evening is in store tonight, with winds becoming southerly and mainly in the 5 to 15 mph range, with the strong winds in our western counties. Cloud cover is expected to be thin, and allow for temperatures to cool to the upper 50s to around 60 in nearly all locations. Dew points readings will continue to gradually increase, with near 60 degrees dew points values arriving by morning Thursday.

Much of Thursday will be breezy and dry, warming back to the upper 70s to lower 80s, with winds of 15 to 25 mph. Some 30 mph gusts are certainly possible, especially northwest.

By afternoon, there is a low chance that a impulse from the southwest CONUS may trigger some showers and thunderstorms in our southwest counties. That seems to be a low predictability chance, as this wave is not yet sampled well by upper air, and is only there in a handful of the 12Z CAMs. That said, if thunderstorms do spread into our western counties in the afternoon, there is expected to be sufficient CAPE/Shear for some severe threat, again, maybe a 20-30 percent chance of this activity occurring.

The main front, and upper forcing will spread into central Iowa by early evening, resulting in the main convective event from northeast Kansas through Central Iowa and into Wisconsin in the early to mid evening hours. This activity will spread east, with an expected mature linear mode, along an established cold pool. That cold pool could arrive into our western counties with strong/severe storms, and bring 50-65 mph gusts, until the balance of MUCAPE and shear becomes tilted toward the shear, when the cold pool out-races the updrafts. This typically results in the line "gusting out" or becoming fragmented as it quickly moves east into counties near the east of the Mississippi River or as CAPE values wane. Convergence from the southerly LLJ overnight should favor updrafts in the southern flank of the line near Missouri, and near the northern bookend mesolow portion, expected to be moving north of our area, thus some good potential is there we see this split much of the area. Measurable rain does look rather high probability, so pops will be maintained rather high.

After midnight through sunrise Friday, decaying convection is expected to be over the area, with only scattered QPF over 0.10 possible. In total on this event, amounts over 0.5 appear most favored in our northwest 1/3, with lowering amounts over the southeast 2/3rds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Friday... Some lingering showers and rumbles of thunder are possible Friday morning as the cold front from Thursday night pushes through the area from northwest to southeast. Conditions will dry out Friday afternoon as dry and cold air advection sets in, leading to a clearing skies through Friday night and lows to drop into the 40s again.

Saturday... A weak shortwave rotates around the longwave trough over the Canadian Rockies into the northern Plains where a surface low could develop across central Iowa. Limited moisture return in the low and mid-levels will support cloud cover and some spotty showers (10-20% coverage) Saturday afternoon into the evening before clearing out overnight.

Sunday-Monday night... A trough in the subtropical jet stream will be pulled northeastward into the central Plains and becomes negatively tilted. Surface cyclogenesis is likely across western KS with a warm front developing to our south over MO. This will set up a prolonged rain event for the region Sunday night into Monday as mid-level moisture advection from the Pacific and low-level moisture return from the Gulf will enable PWATs to climb to over 1.25 inches. Current LREF guidance has a 30-40% chance of rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch Sunday night through Monday night which has been trending upward over the last couple runs. Currently, risk for severe weather is low as there is uncertainty in the exact track of this low pressure system with the ECMWF ensembles tracking the low anywhere between northern MO and southern MN. This will have a great influence on the location of the warm sector and instability across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and can be seen in the spread of MUCAPE values over 1000 J/kg in the ECMWF ensembles. Regardless, the additional rainfall from this event could impact local rivers that are already in flood stage or will be close to flood stage early next week.

Tuesday-Wednesday... Conditions dries out again on Tuesday and Wednesday after another cold frontal passage Monday night, and zonal flow returns across the CONUS. Seasonable highs and lows are forecasted before the next potential storm system develops across the Southern Plains later next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions to persist through the 24-hour period. There is currently a mid-level cloud desk and light rain showers moving in from the west-northwest and could impact KCID and KDBQ. Otherwise, mostly clear conditions are expected through tonight. As the next front approaches tomorrow morning, there is some uncertainty in the cloud coverage near KCID, but the ceilings are forecasted to be above 3000 feet.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.