textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures, low humidity, and gusty winds will result in an Elevated-Critical fire danger today. Thus, a Red Flag Warning has been issued this afternoon for areas along/south of a line from the Quad Cities to Fairfield IA.

- Temperatures this weekend will remain cooler, yet still near/above normal for most. Going into the next work week, we will see temperatures trend above normal once again, with 50s working in mid-late week.

- Active weather pattern through the next week will result in several chances for precipitation, ranging from snow this weekend to rain next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Weak upper wave will pass through the area today, with a much stronger wave well north of the area. This will drag a cold front through the area, with largely gusty winds and a wind shift being the sign of frontal passage. Local enhancements in the pressure gradient will be seen this afternoon as the wave passes, coupled with deep boundary layer mixing. Gusty winds will result throughout the area, with strongest gusts expected in our southeast. The afternoon is when we expect the strongest gusts. Looking at model soundings, deep mixing can be expected today, with soundings indicating mixing to 800-700 hPa. Within this mixing layer, we are seeing wind speeds largely between 30-35 KTs, with some higher magnitudes at times. Thus, there will be the chance for sporadic gusts upwards to 40 mph this afternoon, largely in our southeast. Strong warm advection will be seen today ahead of the approaching cold front, allowing temperatures to soar well above seasonal norms. Currently, we are forecasting temperatures in the mid-upper 60s, with some in our south approaching 70! Temperatures in our northwest may be a little lower than the remainder of the area, owing to some passing clouds and earlier frontal passage.

Gusty winds will couple with the dry and unseasonably mild air this afternoon, with humidity between 20-30%, to create an Elevated- Critical Fire Danger today. Again, the afternoon hours currently seem to be the best timing for any fire danger. With such conditions in place, have opted to upgrade our Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, roughly along and south a line from the Quad Cities to Fairfield IA. As we approach the evening, temperatures will cool, winds will die down, and RH will increase. Thus, the fire danger will cease for the day.

Wave will pass east of the area this evening and through tonight, leaving us largely under weak cold advection. Temperatures will cool into the 20s to low 30s, with increasing cloud cover through the night. The increase in cloud cover can be attributed to the next wave progged to pass through the area on Saturday. Ahead of the approaching wave, we will see a brief period of return flow. Moisture will increase throughout, resulting in increasing PoPs. Best moisture and forcing will be in our north, largely along and north of Interstate 80. This will be where our best chance to see light precipitation is, with model soundings favoring precip type as snow. Thus, snow can be expected through our north, with the potential for a light mix in areas south of the interstate. Confidence on precipitation coverage remains low, as moisture will still be limited. Current PoPs are about 30-50% in our north, with <20% PoPs south of Interstate 80. Overall, impacts are expected to be minimal at this time, with accumulations remaining less than an inch and generally focused along the Highway 20 corridor. Some members of the HREF indicate higher amounts, with a few members showing anywhere between 1-4". At this time, confidence in those higher amounts is low. Will continue to monitor. There will be quite the range in temperatures on Saturday, owing to a stalled-out baroclinic zone near the area. Thus, we will range from near 30 in our north to near 50 in our south.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Northwest flow will remain overhead through the remainder of the weekend and into the start of next week, prior to flow going zonal into midweek. Then, through the second half of next week, ridge builds over the eastern CONUS, resulting in southwest flow taking over. Through this whole timeframe, we will remain active as several waves pass through the region. Near-daily chances for precipitation will be seen through the long term period, with Monday currently geared to be the day with lesser chances.

Sunday, another shortwave will pass through the area, with a surface low tracking just south of our forecast area. With this system tracking south of our area, highest PoPs will be along/south of Interstate 80. We will be on the cold side of this system, with model soundings favoring the precipitation type as snow. Our southern tier of counties will see the best chance for some rain to mix in, but confidence remains low. Accumulation will be possible, but should remain lighter on amounts. Areas along and south of Interstate 80 will generally have a 50-60% chance of seeing at least an inch of snow, with about a 40-50% chance for 2" or more south of the interstate. The snow will largely fall mid-late afternoon Sunday and through the evening hours, with temperatures hovering near/above freezing. Thus, impacts currently seem to be minor, but will continue to monitor for trends in amounts.

Monday will largely be a transitional period between systems, with the next progged to come through that night and through Tuesday. Weak LLVL southerly flow will be in place on Monday, which will allow temperatures to increase a little. Much of the area will hover around 40. Although, this will be the start of another warm-up expected next week. Tuesday, we will have another wave pass south of the area, with some discrepancies in track amongst guidance. Currently, favored areas for precipitation will largely be south of Interstate 80. This system will pass south of the area again, with borderline temperatures early in the day leading to some wintry mix potential. Otherwise, this should transition to rain as the day progresses and temperatures warm. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly midweek and beyond, which will result in modest warm advection into the region. With this, we will see temperatures increase well above seasonal norms, along with a stark increase in moisture. As was mentioned, this will be an active stretch, with shortwaves ejecting off of the Rockies and moving into the Upper Midwest. Moisture in place will allow for persistent precipitation chances, which is realized well amongst guidance. Although, there remains some differences in overall track/timing of systems. Thus, it is best to know that we will have near daily chances for precipitation Tuesday and beyond, with unseasonably mild temperature profiles favoring primary precipitation type as rain. Temperature wise, Wednesday and beyond should feature much of the area near/within the 50s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

South to southwest winds will increase to 15 to 30 kts this morning, as warm winds spread over the region ahead of a cold front. These warm winds winds will create dangerous fire weather conditions, so any activities near airports need to consider this threat of fast spreading fires until 00z tonight, when winds will decrease. Visibility will be good through the period, with only a slight chance for early morning fog/haze and any smoke during the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Southwest winds gusting between 30 to 40 mph, combined with very dry fuels and low humidity levels dropping to 20 to 35 percent will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. The area most susceptible to these conditions will be over southeastern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west- central Illinois, where winds will be their strongest, especially this afternoon.

In addition to the winds, an anomalously warm air mass will be in place, with high temperatures warming to the middle/upper 60s and approaching 70 across our southeastern forecast area. Forecast relative humidity values continue to trend down due to a very dry air mass in place, with minimum RH values expected to dip to the 20 to 35 percent range. These conditions have resulted in GFDI values reaching the critical level, and we have issued a Red Flag Warning from Noon through 6 PM today for portions of our area. A Special Weather Statement may be needed for areas north of the warning this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Record highs for February 27th

Burlington, IA.......77 in 2024 Cedar Rapids, IA.....72 in 2024 Dubuque, IA..........72 in 2024 Moline, Il...........79 in 2024

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for IAZ067-068-078-087>089-098-099. IL...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-010.