textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/Storms moving in late tonight into Friday AM, bringing light rainfall for many. There will be a low-end threat for strong/severe storms, with hail being the primary threat.

- A dry and unseasonably mild weekend is ahead of us, featuring mostly clear skies and light winds.

- Precipitation chances will be on the rise mid-late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Surface high pressure will track east of the area through this evening, which will lead to a continuation of quiet and dry weather prior to midnight. We will largely see an increase in clouds as this moves out and the next system approaches the area, with llvl winds becoming more southwesterly. Upper level northwest flow will remain overhead through the end of the work week, with a subtle shortwave passing through the area tonight into Friday AM. Best forcing will move in tonight after midnight, with the LLJ increasing out of the southwest around the same time. We will continue to see the LLJ increase through Friday morning, supplying the necessary moisture to see scattered showers and storms. Overnight precipitation chances will be around 20-40%, focused near the Interstate 80 corridor prior to sunrise. Although, there remains some uncertainty on precipitation timing. Some CAMs don't initiate any showers/storms until the Friday AM commute, while some initiate closer to midnight tonight. This uncertainty stems from moisture availability and how quickly the atmosphere saturates. A look at model soundings indicates quite a bit of llvl dry air, which will take some time to overcome. Thus, the current thought is that better chances for precipitation will be later tonight and through Friday morning, but isolated convection cannot be ruled out as early as midnight. Overall, the best combination for forcing/moisture will be north of the Highway 34 corridor, with Interstate 80 and north seeing the best precipitation chances through Friday AM (30-60% chances).

SPC has highlighted our far west, areas west of Cedar Rapids, in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather tonight. Overall, the main environmental parameters that would favor stronger to severe storms would be deep layer shear and midlevel lapse rates, which would support some organized convection. Although, much of guidance keeps instability around 500 CAPE or less, with some of the more aggressive CAMs having between 500-1000 J/kg (lower confidence). If we manage to get a strong/severe storm, main hazard will be hail. Precipitation accumulation should be lower, roughly between 0.10- 0.25" for areas north of Highway 34, with the best chance to see rainfall upwards to 0.50" (30-50% probability) closer to the Interstate 80 corridor and areas north. Although, there remains much uncertainty due to the aforementioned dry air, leaving those higher amounts quite localized. The NAM is the most aggressive with precipitation chances tonight, but also has much higher moisture than most other guidance. Thus, our confidence in that solution is low.

By mid-late afternoon on Friday, shower/storm activity should have largely moved off northeast of our area, leaving us dry for the remainder of the day and overnight. We will also see cloud cover decrease quickly through the afternoon as well, leaving us mostly clear. Temperatures tomorrow will increase into the mid-upper 70s for many, especially along/south of Interstate 80. Areas along/south of Highway 34 are expected to reach the low 80s! Thus, unseasonably mild conditions will close the week, with temperatures dropping into the low 60s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

This Weekend...

A beautiful weekend is ahead of us. Warm front will have fully moved northeast and out of the area, leaving us under decent warm advection through the weekend. As such, temperatures are expected to increase well above seasonal normals, especially Saturday with the strongest warm advection. Widespread temperatures in the low 80s are expected Saturday, with mid-upper 70s Sunday. Mostly clear conditions will also prevail, with some passing high clouds on Sunday associated with cirrus from Isaias post-landfall.

Next Week...

Zonal flow will start the new work week, with llvl flow increasing out of the southwest ahead of a passing weak shortwave. Monday will remain dry and unseasonably mild, with the wave and associated cold front passing through Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture will remain limited ahead of the front, which should limit precipitation chances for most (<15% chances). Thus, a largely dry forecast. After that wave, we will see brief ridging prior to a strong wave deepening over the Rockies. As this deepens, southwest flow will set up over the Central CONUS, shunting the ridge east Wednesday. Warm advection will increase overhead through midweek, with shortwaves passing through ahead of this deep wave. Thus, a more active pattern will take shape and chances for showers/storms will be on the rise midweek and beyond. It is too soon to determine the threat of strong/severe storms, along with heavy rain potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A weak disturbance is moving across the area late tonight into Friday morning. A warm front draped across the area will focus showers and thunderstorms near KCID and KBRL into Friday morning with lower confidence in showers and storms at KMLI and KDBQ where prob30 groups were used. Used tempo groups at KCID and KBRL for showers. MVFR visibilities are possible in the strongest showers and storms. Confidence is lower that thunderstorms will directly impact TAF sites tonight. Conditions are forecast to improve after 15 UTC Friday with southeasterly winds around 5 to 10 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.