textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The next clipper system will move through the area late tonight into Friday morning. There is a risk of a wintry mix or even freezing precipitation along/east of a Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL line.

- Very windy conditions will develop after sunrise Friday. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph are likely with gusts potentially up to 40 mph, especially across eastern Iowa.

- The pronounced warm-up is still on tap for late this weekend and into next week. There is still uncertainty to how warm it will get.

UPDATE

Issued at 715 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

While no significant update is expected this evening, it's worth noting the HRRR, current radar, and 00z upper air observed soundings show that this event appears to be headed a bit farther east than the 12Z data/forecast showed. This largely means we could be dry in all but extreme northeast Stephenson County tonight and tomorrow morning. I'll await additional 00z data, but this may require lowering POPs in our northeast 1/2 by 20-30% by a mid evening update. Again, this will be supported by radar trends along with 00z model support if an update of that magnitude roles out. This AFD update is being sent to show an apparent trend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Quiet conditions will be seen the remainder of the afternoon and through the evening as the area is in between the two clipper systems.

After midnight the next clipper system begins to impact the area. There are subtle differences in position and track of the low center. Strong forcing will be associated with the low passage to help generate precipitation. A big concern is that dew points will be 25 to 30 degrees which is in the favorable zone for freezing precipitation. Model output does indicate freezing precipitation potential and trends from the HRRR have backed off from the more aggressive freezing rain solutions early this morning.

The HREF and NBM look to be underdone regarding the overall precipitation potential but there are 20-25% of their members indicate a potential for freezing precipitation.

The interesting time frame looks to be 1 to 9 AM Friday for areas along/east of a line from Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL. At any one location east of this line there is a risk of freezing precipitation for a 2-4 hour time frame. Ice accumulations would be a few hundreths of an inch so any untreated roads/sidewalks/parking lots would become quite slick.

This then raises the question of headlines. Given the low number of members from the HREF/NBM indicating freezing precipitation, we're sitting around a 30 percent confidence for a headline. Thus for now we will hold off on a headline and go with enhanced wording via an SPS. While the potential is there for a headline, it may be more of a tactical issuance later this evening or overnight based on how the system evolves.

The next problem will be the winds on Friday.

The cold front will sweep through the area from pre-dawn to the end of the morning commute. Strong cold advection behind the front will increase wind speeds the second half of the morning and into the afternoon. Winds of 35-40 knots at the top of the mixed layer will be able to mix down and produce windy conditions. The strongest wind gusts look to be across eastern Iowa where gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Friday night through Monday night Assessment...a certainty of warmer than normal temperatures

Dry conditions are expected through the period as the thermal ridge slowly builds north into the central CONUS.

The Friday clipper system and subsequent Canadian high will delay the start of the well advertised warm-up until Sunday. Once Sunday arrives temperatures will slowly become warmer each day. The split flow across the CONUS also means dry conditions will be seen. The models do show weak upper level disturbances moving through the area but their passage will only be marked by an increase in clouds.

Tuesday through Thursday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of above normal temperatures. Low (15-25%) confidence on precipitation

The deterministic runs of the global models have the mid-week time frame dry as does the ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS. As for the ensembles, the number of members from each global model indicating precipitation have come down which was expected given moisture from the Gulf is either cut off or being routed into the Ohio Valley based on low level flow. I fully expected a further reduction of the individual ensemble members showing precipitation the remainder of the week and over the weekend.

This trend of fewer ensemble members showing precipitation is now being reflected in the forecast. Tuesday is almost precipitation free with only a 20 percent chance of precipitation south of I-80. Timing differences in how the global models are handling two potential systems around mid-week have resulted in a 20-30 percent chance of precipitation Tuesday night through Thursday. These pops are 5-10 percent lower than what they were yesterday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light west winds and VFR conditions will last much of the overnight hours. Though VFR we will see a cold front rapidly approaching the area towards morning, noted by increasing winds aloft between 09z and 12Z. In this frontal passage time frame, Low level wind shear is possible, as northwest winds of 35 to 45 kts increase around 1000 ft AGL prior to surface winds increasing from the northwest around 12Z Friday. Friday, strong surface northwest winds of 18 to 30 kts will continue through the day, and though somewhat turbulent, this will alleviate any LLWS from continuing.

MVFR stratus is expected towards morning with this front, and that may continue much of the day Friday. There could be some improvement towards lower VFR by evening, as dry air moves into the region. The latest trends now keep freezing rain and drizzle east of DBQ and well east of other terminals. We'll keep watch on that, but for now, DBQ is no longer expecting a 30% or higher threat of freezing rain, rather a chance around 10 to 15%, below TAF mention in this case.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.