textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold weather to continue through the period with a gradual warm up next week. Wind chills tonight and tomorrow will flirt with Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

- Light snow (<30% chance) tomorrow afternoon east of the Mississippi River with accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch of snow possible.

- Majority of the system for Sunday should pass just north of us.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

As the shortwave trough to our south continues to propagate towards the southeast, dry air advection in the low-to-mid-levels will allow for a decrease in cloud coverage this evening. The clearing will allow for temperatures to drop tonight into the low single digits for much of the CWA with wind chills 10 to 15 degrees below zero. Winds will remain light out of the north overnight before increasing to 10-15 mph tomorrow afternoon as a weak surface trough propagates through the area.

Another shortwave is expected to move into the area from the north tonight bringing a surface trough across the area tomorrow. Behind this trough, low-level moisture return from Lake Michigan will allow for an increase in cloud cover and the development of light snow showers. With upper level dynamic support still in the region, snow showers will develop across north-central Illinois and skirt into far eastern Iowa during the early afternoon. These snow showers will be brief, 1-2 hours, with accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch. With the increased CAA behind the surface trough, highs will only reach the low to mid-teens across much of the CWA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Overall not much change to the long term forecast. PoP values are fluctuating oh so lightly for the system on Sunday, but overall message is unchanged from previous forecast and discussion below.

Not much change to the extended forecast since the last package, as we continue to advertise a more active pattern setting up and a warming trend. Although, more active doesn't necessarily mean a lot of precipitation, but we do have a couple opportunities at this time, which guidance has been consistent with. We will have a couple waves move through the area, which will introduce low- end PoPs to the area (20-40% chances). Weak ridging will be seen ahead of these waves, especially early next week. With that, we will see some warm advection work into the area. While we will see some moisture increase, we will still be relatively low on moisture throughout. Thus, any precipitation with these passing systems should be light and scattered in coverage, rather than widespread. This is highlighted through WPC QPF, generally highlighting the area for 0.10" or less of QPF. Looking at guidance, temperature profiles would favor the precipitation type as snow. Thus, light snow will be possible. Timing of these systems hasn't changed much, with the first system coming through Sunday, then the other Tuesday into Wednesday. One change that was noted for the second system is a southerly shift of the track in some long range models, which would keep the better forcing/moisture south of the area. If that is the case, PoPs may trend downward for the midweek system.

Temperatures will also increase as a result of this pattern, bringing us back towards seasonal norms. For reference, we will start to see temperatures 10-20 degrees warmer than they were over the last week. The very cold air that was in place was well below normal. Now, much of the area will see temperatures at/above freezing by the middle of next week. Prior to that, we will see a gradual increase in high temperatures each day. This will be a welcomed relief to the bitter cold that we have seen lately, especially with nighttime temperatures forecast in the teens! The upper level pattern looks to remain active through next week, as a rex block-like feature sets up over the west coast mid-late next week. If this block were to set up, we will generally stay in a northwest flow regime, leaving us near the path of potential clipper systems during the second half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Mainly clear overnight until Friday morning when a stratocu deck drops down out of MN and WI. These should be mainly VFR levels, but will have to watch fro an increasing northeasterly fetch drawing in MVFR clouds off LK MI and inland all this way to at least the MLI site and potentially BRL as well. There may be some flurries or light snow embedded in this lower deck, but will leave out mention for now. Otherwise, light northerly sfc winds overnight will veer a bit to the north and northeast on Friday, and become gusty to 20+ KTs by late morning and into the afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.