textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The trend continues with generally fair weather and temperatures above normal rest of this week and through the weekend with little to no precipitation expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Tonight...Upstream sfc trof/front seen extending from the northwestern GRT LKS into the west central plains, will continue to sag rather slowly through the area tonight into Wed morning. Dry airmass in place and no moisture feed seen on water vapor imagery should make for a dry FROPA. Slowness of the front will make most of the night pre-frontal like and low temps should not dip much below the low to mid 50s...the south may even stay upper 50s. One thing to keep in mind is that several CAMs want to break out at least patchy fog in the light convergent sfc flow in the vicinity of the boundary north of I-80 late tonight. With the ongoing boundary layer drying of the past several days, this process is uncertain and will keep out mention in the grids for now.

Wednesday...After walking out the boundary in the morning, in comes a round of high pressure out of the northern plains. With not much of a cooler air mass advecting in, dry sfc DPTs and light sfc wind regime, this airmass and lingering mild thicknesses should warm up nicely in full insolation and will side with the the warmer of guidance with high temps in the mid 70s to around 80. As for Wed night, undercut the NBM by a degree or two but that may still not be enough with incoming ridge and lingering light sfc wind/low DPT regime.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Thursday and Friday...The latest suite of models generally agree on a not quite as mild a day on Thursday with a 1020+ MB sfc ridge sliding acrs the area from the northwest and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Several solutions continue to suggest that as the LLVL ridge departs off to the east, an embedded short wave in steering northwesterly flow aloft will combine with an increasing LLJ with some THTA-e advection to produce an elevated wing of convergent WAA type showers and even some embedded thunder acrs portions of the MO RVR Valley and into central IA Thu night into Friday morning. The models are still varying on the placement and how far north or south this wing develops, and how far east it can make it through Friday morning battling lingering ridging acrs the southern GRT LKS/OH RVR Valley. The consensus is that some showers and mid deck of clouds will get into the local area from the west Friday if even in a decaying fashion. But they also show ongoing convergent LLJ processes enough to keep some showers festering acrs the area for much of the day until lifting off to the north and east Friday evening. The latest ECMWF runs continue to suggest the Friday activity will occur north of I-80 or even Hwy 30. Of course more expected cloud cover and possible precip will keep temps down a bit Friday despite an increasing southeast to southerly return flow.

Saturday and Sunday...Digging longer wave upper trof acrs the Pacific Northwest and ridging amplifying up the GRT LKS will result in warming southwesterlies acrs the MID CONUS and toward the GRT LKS. Saturday will be a full blown warm sector day with breezy southerly winds and increasing thicknesses that support highs in the 80s for much of the area. This may be a day of increased cropland fire danger risk depending on humidity trends. Then eyes turn to the tropical system in the Gulf and the path it may take getting drawn northward inland. How close this system can make it to the local area from late Sunday and into early next week is still very much in question. But definitely something to watch, as the local area sure does not need the precip off such a system.

Monday and Tuesday...Depending on what or how the above system behaves, early next week otherwise may be characterized by warm upper ridging and continued above normal temp regime.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The primary challenges are with winds and the potential for fog late tonight/early Wednesday AM. Overall, predominantly VFR conditions are expected.

Gusty S/SW winds will diminish some with sunset, but should remain in the range of 6-12 kt with the potential for sporadic higher gusts as a LLJ develops this evening. LLWS however, appears to be marginal with winds of 35-40 kts around 2kft agl and have left out mention in the TAFs for now. Will continue to watch obs and update to include if the winds aloft come in higher or surface winds abate more than anticipated. The timing of the fleeting few hour period of marginal LLWS would be from 03z-09z from north to south ahead of an approaching dry surface cold front, which will follow shortly thereafter between 09z-15z accompanied by a wind shift to northerly.

Weak low level convergence could lead to patchy fog development right ahead and immediately behind the cold front 09z-14z. Confidence is low on the occurrence of fog with large temperature and dew point spreads of 20+ degrees currently heading to sunset, and with forecast soundings showing 20-25+ kt of wind around 500 feet that veers and diminishes to around 15 kt while turning northerly. This wind just off the deck will work toward keeping the BL sufficiently mixed and against fog formation. Given this I have opted to leave out fog mention.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.