textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An unseasonably mild and breezy day ahead with a cold front bringing scattered showers and isolated storms to portions of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tonight.

- Rain chances increase further heading into the weekend as slightly cooler air moves in.

- A pattern change early next week could bring a significant system and more rain to the Midwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Shortwave troughing over south-central Canada will help deepen a low pressure over Minnesota today as it treks into Ontario. The tightening pressure gradient across the CWA and 30-knot LLJ is forecasted to produce southerly wind gusts between 15-25 mph this afternoon and evening. Highs are likely to climb into the mid-to-upper 70s, the warmest of the week. By tonight, a cold front moves into central Iowa, supporting scattered showers (40-60%) and isolated storms across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. Rainfall amounts should be light (a trace to a tenth of an inch). Conditions dry back out by Thursday afternoon with the cold front moving into central Missouri and southern Illinois. A weak high pressure slides into Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday night, and northeasterly flow advects in some cooler air as lows fall into the 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Friday-Sunday...A longwave trough over the West Coast will lift a weak trough in the subtropical jet northward into the Southern Plains on Friday. Pressure falls across the Central Plains and southwesterly flow aloft is expected to transition the boundary over central Missouri into a warm front. Isentropic upglide within the 295-305 K layer is likely to support additional showers and storms (50-70% coverage) Friday into Saturday. As the subtropical trough approaches Saturday night, another round of scattered showers (20-40% coverage) could form and persist into Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, shortwave ridging sets back in, providing the area a brief period of dryness before heading into a more active pattern early next week. By the end of the weekend, there is decent chance (60-90%) for most of the CWA to see rainfall amounts ranging between 0.25-0.75 of an inch.

Monday-Tuesday...The longwave trough over the western CONUS finally ejects eastward into the Rockies as surface cyclogenesis occurs again across the south-central Plains on Monday. Beyond this point, there are two possible scenarios: (1) the subtropical jet becomes out of phase with the polar jet leading a more southern track or (2) the jets stay in phase and the low moves into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This will have major implications on our precipitation amounts, temperatures, and winds early next week. The only certainty among the ensembles is the precipitation type being rain as temperatures are likely (70-90%) to stay above 40 degrees through the middle of next week. In terms of rainfall amounts, latest NBM guidance has a 50-70% of 1+ inches of rainfall between Monday and Wednesday morning, but again, these probabilities are susceptible to shift as confidence improves on the track of the system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Isolated ground fog is around eastern Iowa this morning, and is not expected to impact forecast terminals, but may affect Iowa City airport nearby through 13Z.

Otherwise, a VFR day is highly confident today, with some passing morning altocumulus clouds and with those a sprinkle can't be ruled out, followed by breezy weather from late morning to early evening. South winds of 10 to 20 kts are expected, with a few gusts around 25 possible this afternoon in eastern Iowa.

Tonight, a period of LLWS is expected as strong winds 2kft aloft blow from the southwest, at 40 to 50 kts, while surface winds are 10 kts from the south. This wind period is ahead of a cold front arriving between 08z and 12Z. Scattered showers and a few storms are possible with that frontal passage late tonight, with brief MVFR conditions in rain/thunder.

Following the frontal passage, there may be some MVFR cigs to follow during the morning hours Thursday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.