textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth to persist into the middle of next week. Record highs are possible Monday (2/16).

- Aside from a chance of rain well south of I-80 on Saturday, largely dry weather is in store through early next week fueling increasing precipitation deficits and worsening drought conditions.

- Precipitation chances return to the forecast toward mid-week and persist through late next week as the pattern turns more active.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Today will be another fantastic day to get outdoors. It will start out chilly and in the 20s for many with patchy, shallow fog possible with small dew point depressions and light winds. However, the dry ground and strengthening, gradually higher-angled abundant February sunshine will work in tandem to foster a nice rebound on temperatures. Based on these factors and trends of deterministic NBM verifying a bit cool for highs of late, I have nudged up toward a blend of NBM75/90th which leads to highs of 52-60F. This range is generally supported by soundings which suggest mixing to around 925-900 hPa into temperatures of around 5-7c dry adiabatically to the surface while tacking on a couple degrees. In addition, this range is also close to observed highs from yesterday further west along the Missouri River Valley in a similar synoptic setup. Winds also look to be light (around 10 mph or less) while veering to SW/W - a favorable warming vector.

Tonight, we'll see an increase in mid and especially high clouds, mainly overnight ahead of a progressive southern stream shortwave shifting from the Four Corners region toward the southern Great Plains. An earlier influx of clouds across our south should lead to warmer lows in the lower to mid 30s, while further north/east with mainly clear skies and light winds for much of the night we should see lows drop below freezing and into the 20s for some. Patchy, shallow fog is possible yet again across parts of northeast Iowa and far northwest Illinois.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The progressive southern stream shortwave is progged to shift east into the Lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning along with the resulting surface cyclone. Given this easterly trajectory and the residual dry airmass over the region, most of the precipitation with this system should remain well to our south. There is also likely to be a sharp northern edge to the rain shield, which could reside south of I-80 and particularly south of Hwy 34 in close proximity to cyclonic surface col and elevated isentropic ascent. Any rain amounts look to be light with NBM probabilities for >0.20 at 30-50% south of Hwy 34, but LREF probabilities are less than 15% and HREF are less than 10% and both of these probabilities seem more reasonable given the dry air and further south track of the system. The cloudiness on Saturday may limit the extent of the warm-up just a bit. Nonetheless, highs are still expected to be mild reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Sunday will bring a return of sunshine as a ridge of high pressure builds in. This should get highs back well into the 50s with a few sites possibly touching 60 degrees west/southwest.

Monday, high level cloudiness will overspread the region ahead of a longwave trough digging into the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow will usher in anomalously warm air (NAEFS and GEFS 1-2 standard deviations on 850 hPa temperatures). This could allow for the potential for near record warmth for a few spots, with Dubuque and Moline most susceptible (See Climate section for detail). However, there is some uncertainty as deterministic and ensemble guidance waffles with the movement of a weak cold front, which is leading to a bit of spread in NBM and LREF ensemble highs of 5 to nearly 10 degrees Monday/Tuesday that grows to around 15 degrees on Wednesday. Deterministic NBM continues to remain near the warmer side of the guidance envelop painting 60s for parts of the area Monday through Wednesday, but even if temperatures lower during this period the bottom for max temperatures looks to be in the 50s which is still unseasonably mild but not near records. So, this will be worth monitoring in the coming days. As far as precipitation is concerned, we'll see a chance of rain Tuesday night/early Wednesday attendant to a lifting shortwave and strengthening fgen beneath the left exit region of a 140+ kt 300 hPa jet. Beyond, there is some signal in deterministic and ensemble guidance of developing a cyclone across parts of the central CONUS toward Thursday. Plenty of uncertainty on the track/strength of this system and any potential impacts, but broad scale depiction of a strong baroclinic zone and forcing could support wind, and moderate/locally heavy precipitation potential of which we could use given our ongoing and worsening drought conditions. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period with light winds out of the south/southwest during the daytime with calm and/or light variable winds overnight. There is a potential for patchy, shallow fog in low-lying areas tonight where winds become calm, but there is low confidence of this occurring at the terminals as high clouds build in from the southwest.

CLIMATE

Issued at 108 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Record High Temperatures for February 16th

Dubuque: 60 (1921) Moline : 60 (2022)

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.