textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms late this evening. Main hazard will be damaging wind.

- Additional storms Thursday and Friday, with isolated severe possible and heavy downpours.

- Above normal temperatures next week, with a prolonged period of heat becoming more likely.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Morning satellite and radar imagery show an MCS over MN/SD that recent loops have begun to show signs of weakening, especially its eastward extent. Closer to home, weak high pressure was overhead with very light south winds. Temperatures were 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, with readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Another warm and humid day is in store for the region, with slightly warmer 850mb temps (18-19C), similar mixing depths, and plentiful sunshine yielding afternoon highs near 90 degrees and heat indices in the lower 90s. Attention then turns to the evolution of storms initiating to our northwest this afternoon/evening. The latest 00z HREF and 00z REFS neighborhood and paintball progs show two main areas to watch this evening for storm development; over west central WI/southeast MN and another over western IA. Sufficient instability (CAPE 1500-2000 J/Kg) and moisture will be in place as storms fire along a cool front. However, marginal deep layer shear, weak mid-level lapse rates, and not ideal time of arrival become the limiting factors and lead to lower confidence in severe storms reaching our area. Nonetheless, will need to watch the activity out west this evening for any developing cold pools. If they can maintain their strength and reach the northwest portions of the CWA, a few strong to severe storms will be possible. The SPC has introduced a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe storms north of a line from Belle Plaine to Dyersville. The primary hazard will be damaging wind with any bowing segments and with slow storm motions, heavy rain will also be possible. A general timing of severe storms would be between 7pm and midnight. There will also be sub-severe activity in the area during this period and overnight. Thursday morning low temperatures will only drop into the upper 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thursday...the aforementioned cold front to drop south and stall over northern MO, with another shortwave progged to move along it during the afternoon/evening. A strengthening mid-level jet and low level convergence may allow for widely scattered showers/storms to develop during the afternoon and evening as suggested by the 00z REFS. Whether this activity will bring a severe risk is still uncertain. Cloud debris from any morning storms may limit atmosphere recovery and thereby keep the severe risk further to our south and east. In any case, a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms remains for northeast MO and west central IL.

Friday-Saturday...frontal boundary to continue to drop well to the south of the area, taking with it any lingering precipitation. Some 00z model solutions (NAM/GFS) show yet another shortwave tracking east out of the central Plains Friday, bringing with it scattered showers/storms along an elevated theta-e boundary. As a result, the forecast has 30-50% chances for storms primarily south of I-80 during the afternoon and evening. Severe potential is a little uncertain, with marginal deep layer shear. However, if a convectively augmented MCV were to take place upstream enhancing the wind field, then some severe storms would be possible. Looking into Saturday, high pressure to build into the area behind departing system resulting in dry conditions and seasonable temperatures in the middle 80s.

Early next week...model guidance continues to show a large anomalous upper ridge (12z NAEFS/ENS 2.5 to 3 sigma from their ensemble mean) building into the central CONUS. In fact, the 12z GEFS/ENS/GEPS has this ridge encompassing most of the lower 48 by 12z Tuesday with its center not that far away from the local area. As a result, a prolonged period of dry conditions, above normal temps, and building heat is likely. Factoring in evapotranspiration of maturing crops, I wouldn't be surprised to see more heat headlines needed for at least a portion of the area. Apparent T probabilities of 95 degrees or higher off the LREF (100 member ensemble of the GEFS/ENS/GEPS) are in the 40-60% range Tuesday-Thursday. If that were not enough, the latest CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook has a Moderate (40-60%) risk of extreme heat for most of the CWA July 15th-17th. Summer heat lovers rejoice, but for all the rest of us, we will need to wait until later in the month for some relief perhaps from storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies and light winds. We will start the day with light and variable winds, becoming more southwesterly by 15-18z throughout. No sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.