textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures are forecast in the 70s today, and the 70s and 80s on Thursday. There will be a brief cool down on Friday before another warming trend begins this weekend and continues into next week.

- There is a chance of showers and storms this evening in northwest Illinois along and north of Interstate 80.

- Strong to severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon into the evening. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe storms along and east of a line from Fairfield to Clinton to Freeport Illinois and a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5)east of a Macomb to Geneseo line.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Passing mid to high clouds will continues across the area today but strong warm and moisture advection will nudge high temperatures and dewpoints up across the area from previous days. High temperatures this afternoon are forecast to be in the 70s. Despite some moisture return into the area, there will be elevated fire danger this afternoon across the area as southerly winds increase to 10 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH.

Tonight, a fast moving shortwave is forecast to move across the area late this afternoon and into this evening. Moisture advection into the area during the day will push CAPE values up to 200 J/KG resulting in possible showers and thunderstorms in far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois along and north of Interstate 80. Small hail is likely and there is a low potential for hail up to the size of quarters with 0 to 6 KM shear near 50 knots. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will exit the area by midnight to 1 AM CDT. Rainfall amounts will be light.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

On Thursday, warm and moisture advection will continue ahead of a strong shortwave and cold front that will move across the area Thursday afternoon into the evening. High temperatures ahead of the front will range from the upper 60s along the Highway 20 corridor to the mid 80s in far northeast Missouri, far southeast Iowa and west central Illinois. Dewpoints through the day will increase into the 50s across most of the area with lower 60s in far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Southerly winds will be gusty with speeds of 10 to 20 MPH and gusts up to 30 MPH. Given that the greenup is just beginning, this will lead to elevated fire danger ahead of the front.

The front is forecast to move into the area north of Interstate 80 by 21 UTC (4 PM) and then into far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois by 10 PM Thursday evening. The best chances of precipitation across the area will be tied to forcing along and just behind the front. Ahead of the front, a strong capping inversion will be in place across the area and any thunderstorms that develop in this environment will be capable of producing hail up to the size of quarters as storms will be elevated. As the front nears, storms are more likely to be surface based with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes possible with strongly curved hodographs. It looks like the best potential for any severe storms will be located along and south of Interstate 80 but the best moisture and forcing with this storm system will be just to our east into the evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk of severe storms along and east of a line from Fairfield to Clinton to Freeport Illinois. There is also a SLight (level 2 out of 5) Risk of severe storms along and east of a line from Macomb to Geneseo Illinois. Rainfall amounts will range from up to a tenth of an inch west of the Mississippi River to a quarter of an inch east of the Mississippi River.

Behind the front, cooler air will quickly move into the area with temperatures on Friday noticeable cooler with high temperatures north of Interstate 80 in the mid to upper 40s with the lower 50s to the south.

By Saturday, 500 MB ridging will begin to rebound northeastward into the area and allow for a warming trend across the area once again. High temperatures will be back into the 60s by Sunday and into the 70s Monday through Tuesday. Beyond this weekend, A trough is forecast to move into the western US resulting in a pattern shift to more southwesterly flow aloft across the Plains. This will lead to more shortwaves ejecting into the Plains and 30 to 40 percent chances for showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

TAFs remain VFR during the period. There is an upper level disturbance expected to move across the area 20z/25 to 03z/26. The system will be gaining more moisture particularly as it moves east of the Mississippi River where a few storms are possible. Prior to then, there could be some sprinkles or even scattered high based showers. Confidence on occurrence and impacts appear too low for any mention, but will need to monitor KMLI for any slowing and better proximity to moisture which would warrant some shra and possibly -tsra mention. Otherwise, gusty southerly winds are expected to develop by mid to late morning with gusts up to 25 kt. Winds should diminish to light southerly with sunset.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.