textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather through the start of the week, with temperatures below normal for the first time in at least a week. Temperatures trend upwards and above normal Tuesday and beyond, with fluctuations expected due to passing systems.

- We will remain dry through the start of the week, with increasing PoPs Wednesday and beyond.

- Long range guidance favors the continuation of above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation into the start of March.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Active upper level pattern will remain in place tonight and through Sunday, as a broad trof sets up over the eastern CONUS and bouts of energy continue to funnel in from the northwest. LLVL flow remains out of the northwest, ushering colder and dry air into the area. Thus, we are not expecting much in the form of precipitation as these waves continue to pass through. Any precipitation would be confined to flurries, but confidence is low on that (<15% chance), as model soundings would indicate quite a bit of dry air to overcome. Rather, we will be left with mostly cloudy skies through the weekend for much of the area, with slightly less coverage on Sunday. As each of these waves pass through, the pressure gradient overhead will remain modest, allowing for breezy conditions through the remainder of the weekend. We will start to see these gradient winds increase through tonight, with the strongest winds expected tomorrow. Winds tonight are forecast to gust upwards to 20-25 mph, with temperatures dropping into the upper single digits to teens throughout. Thus, very cold conditions will be in place tonight, with wind chill values between zero and ten below zero. Quite the change from last weekend! Tomorrow, we will see winds increase, with gusts upwards to 30-35 mph, especially in the afternoon. Temperatures will increase into the upper teens to mid 20s during the day tomorrow, with gusty winds keeping wind chills in the single digits through the day. Otherwise, we are in for largely quiet weather. Bundle up if out and about!

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 119 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Broad trof over the eastern CONUS moves out of the area, leaving us under upper level northwesterly flow. Surface high pressure will pass through the area slowly Monday through much of Tuesday, prior to be getting kicked out by the next approaching shortwave. With high pressure largely overhead on Monday, we will be left with a quiet weather day, along with much lighter winds than seen over the weekend. Temperatures Monday will largely be in the 20s, with those in our southeast approaching 30. Otherwise, mostly clear skies can be expected for the start of the new work week.

Tuesday, we will see the surface high pressure push east of the area, resulting in increasing southerly flow in the LLVLs. A weak shortwave will pass north of the area on Tuesday, with another wave moving towards the region from the northwest. LLVL flow will also shift west-southwest to westerly. This will be enough to increase moisture through part of the column, resulting in cloud cover. Clouds should largely remain mid-high, but thick enough to mask the sun through the day. Although, the increased southerly flow will allow for an increase in temperatures. Currently, we are forecasting temperatures returning to the upper 30s in our north to near 50 in our south. Thus, we are going right back to unseasonably mild temperatures throughout the area. Moisture in the LLVLs seems to be low, limiting precipitation chances. We will hold onto the <20% PoPs in our northeast for now.

Northwest flow remains the main upper level pattern through the remainder of next week and possibly into the weekend. This would result in a more active pattern, with a few shortwaves ejecting off of the northern Rockies and heading towards the region. The first of these waves is currently progged to come through the area Wednesday into Thursday, where the track is realized well through guidance, with largely timing/moisture differences. We will see some LLVL moisture return ahead of this wave, which will lead to precipitation chances. Although, this is also an area in which guidance differs slightly, with the GFS suite having the most moisture and thus highest QPF for this event while the remainder of global models remain lighter. In either case, this will bring through the potential for all forms of precipitation, with rain or wintry mix to start and possibly snow on the backside. There is much time for this to change though, but just keep an eye on this day for potential impacts. Otherwise, we will continue to see a train of weak waves passing through behind it, which will introduce PoPs to the area with each. Too soon to dive into more details, as there remains plenty of unknowns. Rather, just be prepared for a more active pattern that will introduce more precipitation chances, along with fluctuating temperatures through the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Main challenge this TAF cycle remains when or if another MVFR stratocu deck can make it's way down acrs the TAF sites out of SD and MN tonight into Sunday. Many CAMs do bring a MVFR deck down from the north late tonight, and will time this deck into most of the TAFs using a short range blend. Later Sunday afternoon this deck may rise to VFR levels or experience some breaks. Brisk northwesterly sfc winds of 15 to 25 KTs will continue for most of the period, with some higher gusts in the Sunday diurnal heating even if a blanketing stratocu deck is in place. There is a chance for a few flurries to get wrung out of any lower MVFR deck, but don't expect any VSBY restrictions enough for TAF mention.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.