textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather is expected through tonight as high pressure moves across the area. It will be dry and cooler across the area tonight. Frost is not expected north of Highway 30.

- An active pattern is still on track to develop Sunday through the end of next week resulting in several chances of showers and thunderstorms through the period as well as warmer temperatures. Strong to severe storms are possible Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Late this afternoon, skies are expected to clear from northwest to southeast into the early evening as high pressure builds into the area. High pressure is forecast to move to Lake Michigan by this evening then into Michigan by 00 UTC on Sunday. Cooler temperatures are forecast across the area tonight with low temperatures ranging from the mid 30s along the highway 20 corridor to the lower 40s in far southeast Iowa, far northeast Missouri, and west central Illinois. Frost is not expected north of Highway 30 with NBM probabilities showing around 0% probability of surface temperatures at or below 32 degrees Saturday morning.

The 500 MB ridge axis is forecast to move to the east of the area by 12 UTC on Saturday allowing for southwesterly flow aloft to move into the area for Saturday into Saturday night with warmer temperatures across the area. It will be breezy on Saturday with southerly winds around 10 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH. The ECMWF is the most aggressive with moving POPS into the area on Saturday morning as warm advection slowly spreads into the area. Other models hold off on the chances for showers and storms until late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with the warm front lifting across the area and the strongest warm advection. Despite POPs through the day, think that the best chances are after 21 UTC into Saturday night. Rainfall amounts will be light with less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected. Chances for severe thunderstorms are very low on Saturday night with CAPE less 200 J/KG across the area. .

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 242 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday through the end of next week with several storm systems moving across the area. The storm system for Monday night through Tuesday night has slowed slightly. It will be noticeably warmer next with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. On the current forecast, Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures in the lower to mid 80s.

Sunday...A breezy warm sector day with sctrd showers and thunderstorms developing again especially in the afternoon and into Sunday evening. If they can get sfc rooted, there may be a chance for a few storms to produce gusty winds. If the BL WAA can boost temps into the low to mid 70s with sfc DPTs in the low 60s, enough sfc based CAPE there for the wind cause. Showers and storms will fester into Sunday night, with localized swaths of rainfall ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 by Monday morning. Sustained southerly winds on Sunday are expected to be in the 15 to 25 MPH range with gusts up to 35 MPH.

Monday through Thursday...An active week looks to be on tap if the mass field ideas of the latest ensembles verify with southwest CONUS upper troffing and resultant arching southwesterly steering flow aimed right up acrs the central to upper MS RVR Valley. There will be a chance for storms on Monday, but the latest ensembles suggest upper ridging to amplify right acrs the CWA with LLVL cyclogenesis more toward the northern plains and west-to-east oriented sfc boundary laying out more to the north acrs MN into WI and this is where the Monday night MCS action zone may occur. Will have to assess further model runs and trends of course, and developing severe risk areas as well as heavy rainfall zones. Some of the same trends occur on Tuesday as Monday, but maybe a bit further south placing portions of the local area in a severe weather risk. As a large portion of the upstream trof tries to lift out, there looks to be an almost daily threat of storms and heavy rainfall Wednesday through the end of the week. Some bouts of warm days in this stretch as well, with 80s looking likley for the breezy warm days of Monday and Tuesday, with solid 70s for much of the rest of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions into early Saturday morning, with just increasing mid and high clouds from the southwest as return flow aloft takes hold behind departing high pressure. Light and variable winds overnight to trend to southeasterly 5-10 MPH by mid Sat morning. Cloud cover will continue to increase and try to saturate down to MVFR levels as the day progresses, but it might take until later Saturday afternoon to do so. Sctrd to isolated high based showers will increase and spread acrs the area mainly this afternoon, with a chance for them to produce passing bouts of MVFR if they manage to cross over a TAF site. Later Saturday evening, south to southeasterly sfc winds will continue to increase to 10-15 KTs, and southerly flow at 2K FT AGL may approach 40 t 45 KTs making for marginal LLVL wind shear.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.