textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures for mid July are forecast through the period with gradually warming of high temperatures into the mid 90s by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. Limited humidity with dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices below 100 through the period.

- The forecast is large dry through the period with low chances of precipitation late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

A MCV and 500 MB trough continue to slowly exit southeastward into Illinois with precipitation coming to an end in far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and west central Illinois by 12 UTC.

In the wake of this system, high pressure is forecast to build into the region at the surface and aloft bringing quiet weather to the area through the weekend. Winds will be east to northeasterly through the period with speeds of 5 to 10 knots through the day then becoming light overnight. These winds will draw lower dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s into the area. Temperatures will be warm in the mid to upper 80s. Sunday is forecast to be 1 to 2 degrees warmer than today.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Deterministic and Ensembles are in good agreement in building ridging at the surface and aloft across the Plains Sunday night through midweek. A closed low in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and a closed 500 MB 600 DM contour in the northern Plains form a Rex Block across the central US through the middle of next week. The position of the high through Wednesday would keep dewpoints in the 60s through midweek. Temperatures will gradually modify through the week with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures warming from the mid 60s to the lower 70s after Wednesday. Dewpoints in the 60s will limit heat indices to the mid to upper 90s next week.

Beyond Wednesday, models begin to disagree as the GFS shifts the high pressure to the east of the area while other models and the GFS Ensemble Mean retrograde the Rex Block to the west. This is bringing low chances of showers to the area Thursday and Friday for different reasons. The operational GFS solution allows for a storm system to approach the area from the west while the retrograde of the Rex Block brings the storm track closer to the area allowing a shortwave digging into the eastern Great Lakes to bring a cold front into the area and produce light chances of showers ands storms. The retrograding Rex Block solution appears to be favored by models and the NBM and think that this is the more likely scenario given the tendencies for blocking to retrograde with time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Patchy MVFR fog can't be totally ruled out at the start of the period and again late tonight, but this potential at the TAF sites looks quite low and non-mentionable with HREF and NBM probabilities for visibility <5SM at less than 20%. Soundings show northeast winds should increase to around 10 to 15 kt by mid morning through afternoon, with winds then becoming light and variable tonight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.