textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A large storm system will move through the Midwest the first half of the week. Behind the system, spotty rain showers will be possible for the second half of the work week.

- Although cooler by mid/late week, temperatures will continue to average above normal for early November.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Today through Monday: Mild and quiet conditions will continue through the rest of today with highs in the 60s and steady southeast winds of ~10-20 mph. Heading into tonight, a strong area of low pressure developing in the Central Plains will lead to increasing southerly flow aloft across the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region. This will be accompanied by lower tropospheric moisture and warm air advection, which could provide enough lift to kick off isolated showers late tonight into Monday AM, most favored north of Highway 34 (20-50%). The increase in low-level moisture with surface dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s will lead to a northward expansion of low stratus across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tonight into Monday. With ceiling heights likely to be under 1000 ft AGL at times, occasional drizzle is possible Monday AM.

As the surface low strengthens to ~995mb across South Dakota on Monday, the pressure gradient will tighten locally and lead to increasing southeast winds, gusting up to 25-30 mph. It will be another mild day on Monday with highs in the low to upper 60s; dropped forecast temps several degrees below the NBM due to the widespread low clouds expected across the area. Rain will become more likely later Monday afternoon into the evening across the western to northwest sections of the outlook area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Monday Night through Wednesday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on a storm system bringing some rain to the area along with warmer than normal temperatures.

Although there are differences between the global models, they have been consistent in taking the center of the significant system well to the west of the area. The net result will be much warmer than normal temperatures for the area along with windy conditions. Periodic rounds of rain will be seen with the best chances being Monday night into Tuesday.

The overall timing for the best chances for rain also agrees with the surge of moisture from the Pacific along with some from the Gulf. The model PWATs with the moisture surge are 1.5+ inches which would exceed the local sounding climatology. Such moisture also yields a high probability of locally heavy rainfall, especially with any thunderstorms.

Thunderstorms will be possible since we'll be in the warm sector of the storm. The main severe risk on Monday/Monday night looks to hold off to the southwest of our area, but SPC's latest update did push the Marginal Risk (level 1 or 5) northeastward to include portions of far NE Missouri. Isolated damaging winds appear to be the primary threat.

Once the main cold front and a secondary low sweep through the area on Wednesday, spotty showers and sprinkles will be possible the second half of the work week.

Temperatures will cool down by the middle to end of the week but still average above normal for early November.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 514 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Widespread low clouds will remain draped over the forecast area through the TAF period, with VFR/MVFR cigs currently throughout. Between 06-12z tonight, we will start to see IFR cigs overtake the area and remain through much of Monday. Lowest cigs will be seen in areas of light rain on Monday, especially at CID/DBQ where PROB30s are currently included. Some uncertainty remains on timing and coverage, especially for areas south. Otherwise, we will see winds increase out of the southeast through the day Monday. Winds prior to 12z will generally be around 10 KTs, increasing to 10-15 KTs with gusts upwards to 25 KTs by 15-18z.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.