textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Clouds will continue tonight into Wednesday morning, along with areas of dense fog possible over portions of eastern Iowa, west- central Illinois, and far northeastern Missouri

- An active second half of the week with two storm systems impacting the area. The first system will bring rain to the area Thursday and Thursday night with the potential for some rumbles of thunder mainly east of the Mississippi.

- The second system has a medium to high (60-80%) probability of seeing accumulating snow Friday night into Saturday along with much colder conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The regime of clouds trapped under the elevated inversion continues today and has a high (>80%) probability of continuing tonight into Wednesday morning. HRRR has been the primary model holding onto the clouds into the evening. Interesting, the NAM keeps clouds going late tonight and into Wednesday but then rapidly dissipates them Wednesday afternoon.

What no model has been handling well is the fog. Given the visibilities early this afternoon, there is a medium to high (60- 80%) probability of at least light fog continuing tonight into Wednesday morning. The potential for fog headlines is there so trends late this afternoon and evening will determine whether or not any fog headlines will be needed.

The low clouds will also play into patchy drizzle late this afternoon and potentially into the evening.

Temperatures Wednesday will be dependent upon whether or not the clouds break up. If clouds remain in place all day then high temperatures will need to be lowered by 5-10 degrees depending upon the location. However, it does appear that the far south and southwest areas have the better potential to see some sun Wednesday afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Wednesday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on dry conditions

Dry but increasing cloud cover will be seen Wednesday night ahead of the approaching storm system. Overnight lows will be well above normal and just below record warm mins.

Thursday/Thursday night Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of a storm system impacting the area

The well advertised first system the second half of the week is still on track to impact the area with rain. There are some disagreements on the overall track (generally plus/minus 50 miles either side of the Mississippi) but the main message of the precipitation being all rain has not changed. Rain will overspread the area on Thursday and gradually end from southwest to northeast Thursday night. What is currently not in the forecast is the potential for any rumbles of thunder. The large scale synoptic signal supports the potential for isolated thunder mainly east of the Mississippi. However, the differences in track between the models and their respective ensemble members is dropping the signal for thunder below the background noise error.

The track of the system, however, will dictate where the the band of heavier rain will fall. Interestingly, the 6 hour QPF from the ECMWF- AIFS and AIGFS are fairly similar and suggest the heavier QPF along/immediately east of the Mississippi (which has been the trend with past systems). NBM probabilities of 0.50 inches of rain are 75+ percent for most of the area. The 1+ inch QPF amounts, are along and just east of the Mississippi but the probabilities are only around 60 percent.

Interestingly, there are many ensemble members from the various models that peg the higher QPF amounts west of the Mississippi. This is much further to the north and west than previous forecasts.

Also interesting is the trend of slowly lowering rainfall amounts. So, it appears that general rainfall amounts of 0.3 to 0.5 inches have the higher probability of occurring over most of the area. The heaviest amounts look to be 0.6 to 0.9 inches in a band probably 50 miles either side of the Mississippi.

Friday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on precipitation potential

Friday will be a day in between the departing system and the next system. The atmosphere will be saturated so any lift being supplied will be enough to generate precipitation. While not widespread, the model consensus does have a 15-20 percent chance for patchy rain. Attention then turns to the next system.

Friday night through Saturday night Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on a colder system impacting the area

The global models vary considerably on the details of the weekend system. Some have an upper level disturbance while others have a low center. There is one model that has an occluded low passing near the area with the main low over the Ohio Valley.

Where the models do agree is that much colder air will get pulled into the next system. Thus while the precipitation will initially start out as rain or a rain/snow mix, it will change over to all snow late Friday night into Saturday.

The trend with the models has been to slowly push the eventual snow band further to the north and west toward the colder incoming air. This would place the better probabilities for accumulating snow west of the Mississippi or at the very least north of a line from Ottumwa, IA to Rockford, IL. Regardless of which location scenario is correct, there will be accumulating snow that occurs late Friday night into Saturday.

The question is whether or not there will be a need for any headlines. Given the timing of the system (Fri night into Saturday) the potential impacts are lower than normal. At the same time, however, it has been many weeks since accumulating snow occurred across the area. This far out the probability for a 'possible' headline is in the 15-25 percent range. Regardless, this is a system that will need to be watched over the coming days.

Sunday through Tuesday Assessment...low (20-30%) confidence on the entire time period being dry

The signal from the global models has the cold core upper low rotating across the area Sunday/Sunday night and exiting the area on Monday. The cold core aloft combined with cyclonic flow should be enough to generate flurries or snow showers during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. Right now the model consensus has dry conditions during this time period which may not be entirely correct.

Monday into Tuesday high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. The question is what will be the cloud cover. The models show return flow developing indicating relatively warmer flowing into the area. If this warmer air flows over the colder surface air then the probability is high that this will develop clouds trapped under an inversion. The model consensus does show increasing clouds occurring Monday night into Tuesday which may temper the forecasted above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Messy aviation conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday morning as low stratus and fog will be common tonight. Current GOES-East satellite imagery shows an expansive stratus deck extending from OLZ southeast towards MQB due to a stout low-level inversion at around 1500 ft AGL. Where skies have cleared to the southwest, an expanding area of fog has developed, which is only expected to expand further over the area. Widespread IFR to VLIFR as of TAF issuance should become entirely LIFR/VLIFR overnight. With little boundary layer mixing into mid-morning Wednesday, the fog and low stratus will be slow to dissipate. Once it does, conditions should quickly improve to VFR late Wednesday morning into the afternoon as steady southerly flow mixes the lower atmosphere.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.