textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Falling temperatures and wind chills tonight with a low chance for spotty light precipitation, with any impacts from precipitation likely to be minor at best.

- The overall weather pattern looks to remain active into next week. However, the main storm track is well north of the area which indicates the potential for precipitation, especially widespread, is low.

- A slow warming trend will commence late this weekend and into next week with temperatures trending above normal.

UPDATE

Issued at 800 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

The cold front is near the U.S. Highway 30 corridor as of 8 PM and working its way south. Over the last two hours there have not been any ASOS/AWOS observations (weather or visibility) or mPINGs indicating drizzle behind the front. While the saturated depth in the post-frontal zone is sufficient, low-level omega looks weak and temperature profiles quickly cool to the point where any precipitation would likely be flurries 2-3 hours after the front. In addition, pavement temperatures are lagging the fall of air temperatures by a couple degrees per obs across the northern CWA. So even if patchy drizzle were to materialize, any impacts should be on the minor end at best.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Dry air initially over the area has delayed the start of precipitation from the approaching clipper system. This will change through late afternoon and evening as top-down saturation rapidly occurs.

The south edge of the precipitation (based on upstream observations) is essentially a rain/snow mix with pockets of all snow. A similar scenario should be seen late this afternoon and early evening across our northern areas.

The favored area for precipitation late this afternoon and early evening is generally north and east of an Independence, IA to Peru, IL line. Any snow accumulation looks to be under an inch and mainly east of a line from Dubuque, IA to Mt. Carroll, IL.

A concern developing this evening is the projected loss of cloud ice. This is an area the models struggle with, but, if correct then we have the potential to see some freezing drizzle as the colder air gets pulled south into the area. This same scenario occurred last evening along the back edge of the precipitation.

It will take time for the atmospheric column to cool before the freezing drizzle would be realized. Patchy freezing drizzle looks to roughly start in or near the Highway 30 corridor during the second half of the evening commute and move south during the evening. Areas south of I-80 appear to have a better chance of seeing freezing drizzle due to more time for the atmospheric column to cool. This situation will need to be watched for a potential winter weather advisory.

Late tonight into Thursday morning mainly dry conditions should be seen across the area before the next clipper system arrives.

The timing of the Thursday clipper system looks to be similar to the Wednesday system; precipitation arriving in the early afternoon and ending by early evening. This system is a tad further north so only areas east of a Dubuque, IA to Mt. Carroll, IL line have any potential for light snow. Any accumulations would range from flurries to a very light dusting.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Thursday night through Wednesday Assessment...low to medium (30-50%) confidence on mainly dry conditions. Medium to high (60-80%) confidence on a warming trend.

The model consensus continues the dry conditions into the middle of next week. The trend of above normal temperatures starting late this weekend and into next week continues as well. However, cloud cover may impact how warm it gets during the daylight hours.

As mentioned yesterday, there are several weak disturbances progged to move through in the flow aloft; the first on Saturday, the second Sunday night into Monday and a potential third on Wednesday.

The Saturday disturbance has a high probability of being dry given the weakness of the system and no low level return flow. Thus Saturday should only see an increase in clouds.

Sunday night into Monday the second disturbance does have southerly return flow associated with it. All deterministic model runs and AIFS runs are dry as are nearly all of the respective ensemble members. Unlike yesterday, there are now a couple of ensemble members wanting to develop some very weak precipitation. This in turn has resulted in an increase in pops for Sunday night. The net result is still dry conditions but the pop chances are no longer zero.

The signal, albeit a bit stronger, is essentially being swallowed by the background error noise. However, if the trend of the signal strengthening continues over the next 72-96 hours then the dry conditions Sunday night into Monday would be in question.

The disturbance on Wednesday currently gives the appearance of being the weakest of the three. However, the large scale synoptic signal suggests there may be a subtle boundary associated with the disturbance. If correct then the additional lift provided by the boundary may be enough to generate very light precipitation if sufficient moisture is available.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Concerns for aviators are low clouds and patchy drizzle / freezing drizzle tonight.

A cold front will shift south through the area this evening, turning winds more out of the due north. Weak forcing along and behind this front will support patchy drizzle and observations have confirmed that. In the few hours immediately behind the cold front, there may be a window for freezing drizzle, though runway and other surfaces may stay above freezing in that few hour window, so any impacts are trending to be pretty minor. MVFR clouds with patchy IFR will scatter overnight with VFR conditions favored on New Year's Day along with light winds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.