textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms Wednesday night and Thursday.

- Building heat this weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Quiet weather is expected into tonight and Wednesday with high pressure gradually shifting to our southeast into the Ohio Valley. Lows tonight will be in the 60s and given the humid conditions there could be some patchy shallow fog in favored low-lying locations. For Wednesday, expect another very warm July day with highs generally in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees, with peak afternoon heat indices in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Upper level pattern to transition to a more zonal flow, with several shortwaves moving through by the end of the work week. During the day on Wednesday, the active storm track will remain north of the area over MN and WI, as a cool front drops south into IA. While forcing along and behind the front is not overly impressive, scattered showers/storms are still forecast to develop aided by 30-40kt mid-level flow, dropping southeast closer to the northwest portions of the CWA Wednesday night/early Thursday. The question becomes will they actually reach our area before dissipating and CAM guidance is mixed. Better synoptic lift will be displaced to the north and to the west of the CWA, but if storms do reach the northern CWA they will occur in a high PW+sufficient thermodynamic environment to support a few isolated strong to severe storms. RAP forecast soundings also support this idea and still has DCAPE values around 600 J/Kg at 03z near the Hwy 20 corridor. Not all areas will see rain however and there will be many dry hours during the day Thursday.

The aforementioned cool front to drop south and stall out somewhere over the southern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon while another stronger shortwave shown by several deterministic and ensemble solutions moves across Iowa. A more favorable kinematic parameter space is also being suggested with this wave leading to a chance of stong/severe storms. As a result, the SPC now has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk for areas along and south of line from Washington IA to Sterling IL. In addition, a very moist environment will be in place leading to a heavy rain threat.

Beyond Friday, all deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large anomalous 598 dam 500mb ridge building into the central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are likely and with the maturing crops adding additional moisture into the atmosphere, we could see more heat headlines by early next week. The latest CPC 6-10 day outlook (encompassing the majority of next week) strongly favors above normal temperatures across the Midwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR is expected to continue into Wednesday AM with high pressure in control, resulting in dry conditions and light winds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.