textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances increasing today and tonight for scattered showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm.

- An active pattern is still on track to develop Sunday and remain through the end of next week, resulting in several chances of showers and thunderstorms through the period. Strong to severe storms are possible Monday through Wednesday. Warmer temperatures will also be in line through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Today...An increasing warm air advection(WAA) regime day behind departing ridge complex off to the east. The warming will be more realized aloft initially and fcst soundings show developing inversions, especially a well pronounced lower based one at H9 to H8 MB. Cloud cover also to be on the increase today, initially in the mid to high layers but then lower stuff trapped under the inversion. This will also keep a lid on high temperature potential today with values held down in the 50s. Although upper ridging will look to build acrs the area today, a ridge-riding vort max will combine with the WAA to produce increasing elevated showers acrs the area as the day progresses and lasting into tonight. The coverage sctrd in nature and higher on the IA side, but getting into northwest IL by this evening as well. Some marginal mid layer lapse rates and MUCAPEs of 400-800 J/kg to support some thunder acrs the northwestern DVN CWA, but better storm support appears to be west and north from west of the DSM area up through north central WI. Some of the stronger elevated cells may be able to produce some hail. Rainfall amounts look to be a quarter inch or less by late tonight.

Tonight...Fcst soundings and profilers suggest a southwesterly LLJ to really crank up tonight to 45-55 KTs, and the convergent axis shifts acrs eastern MN into WI where an elevated type MCS may occur tonight. A few lingering elevated showers will continue locally overnight, with southerly sfc winds of 10-20 MPH producing a steady to slow rise non-diurnal temp trend into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Sunday...A few isolated showers may skirt by quickly in the fast flow in the morning, with a more optimum warm moist conveyor occurring by afternoon to shuttle more showers and thunderstorms up acrs the area for afternoon and well into the evening. If the showers/storms can get sfc rooted, there may be a chance for a few storms to produce gusty winds in robust low to mid level wind fields. If the BL WAA can boost temps into the low to mid 70s with sfc DPTs in the low 60s, enough sfc based CAPE could be there for the wind cause. Showers and storms will fester into Sunday night, with localized swaths of rainfall ranging from 0.25 to 0.75 by Monday morning. Away from the storms, mixing profiles suggest ambient sfc wind gusts of 35 to 40 MPH.

Monday through Friday...Latest ensemble trends continue to show a rather deep southwest CONUS upper trof establishing and resulting in a troublesome arching southwesterly steering flow aimed right up acrs the central to upper MS RVR Valley. There will be a chance for warm sector storms on Monday, but another round of solutions suggesting the upper ridging to re-amplify and nudge it's way right up acrs the CWA with LLVL cyclogenesis more toward the northern plains and west-to-east oriented sfc boundary laying out more to the north acrs southern MN into WI. This is where the Monday night MCS action zone/convective spawning grounds may occur. The local area may get impacted by an EML cap, but still some chance for a portion of the convective system just to the north to bleed down into the norther CWA and be a threat later Monday night into Tue morning. Will have to assess further model runs and trends of course for the rest of the week, but this may be a scenario where we have to take it day by day as convective evolution will depend on what occurs the previous day and night, with lingering boundary and outflow into the following day affecting the next round of convective initiation. This as pieces of the upstream trof eject out in the mid CONUS southwesterlies and up acrs the Midwest, utilizing bouts of warm moist conveyor up off the western Gulf for much of next week. Some rounds of warm days in this stretch as well, with 80s looking likley for the breezy warm days of Monday and Tuesday, with solid 70s for much of the rest of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions hanging on for awhile through late morning with increasing mid and high clouds from the southwest as return flow aloft takes hold behind departing high pressure. Light and variable winds early will trend to southeasterly 5-10 MPH by late morning. Cloud cover will continue to increase and try to saturate down to MVFR levels as the day progresses, but it might take until later this afternoon to do so. Sctrd to isolated high based showers will increase and spread acrs the area mainly this afternoon, with a chance for them to produce passing bouts of MVFR if they manage to cross over a TAF site. A low chance for an isolated thunderstorm at DBQ and CID this afternoon and evening. Later during the evening, south to southeasterly sfc winds will continue to increase to 10-15 KTs, and southerly flow at 2K FT AGL may approach 40 to 45 KTs making for marginal LLVL wind shear into early Sunday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.