textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm system continues to move to the southeast, producing scattered to widespread shower and storms (50-80%) through this afternoon.

- Gusty northeasterly winds up to 25-35 mph are moving in behind the passing system and are expected to last through early this evening. Some higher gusts will be possible.

- Below normal temperatures will be seen through the weekend before returning to seasonable values as a cold front slowly moves through the area middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A nearly closed heights shortwave trough and occluded low pressure system continues to slide to the southeast as northerly surface flow returns areawide today. A positive mid-level F-gen band and surface convergence on backside of the low pressure should keep scattered to widespread showers and storms (50-80% coverage) around through this afternoon before dry air advection and ageostrophic convergence aloft slowly tamper down PoPs. Overcast skies in the morning are expected to keep highs below average again in the 70s before the skies clear out, opening the door for radiational cooling and lows to drop into low 60s. Winds will also be gusty around 25-35 mph this morning through the late afternoon before conditions subside later into the evening.

Sunday looks to be the fun day with the dry, mild conditions to end the first weekend in August. An elongated high pressure system on the backside of Saturday's low pressure should keep winds out of the northeast around 10-15 mph as CAA allow highs to only climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows once again will dip into the upper 50s to low 60s Sunday night heading into Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Monday...Shortwave ridging builds in ahead of the next trough zooming across the Northern Plains, keeping conditions quiet and mild on Monday as the elongated high pressure camps over our area. This will not last long though as the next cold front over the Dakotas and Minnesota inches towards Iowa.

Tuesday-Thursday...Despite the shortwave trough over the Northern Plain lifting into south-central Canada on Tuesday, a longwave trough remains in place which supports the continued propagation of the cold front into Iowa. PoPs return mostly supported by diffluent flow aloft and the front, but dry air in the mid-levels should limit coverage (10-20%) and precipitation amounts. As the longwave slowly shifts eastward on Wednesday, a deepening low pressure over the South Plains will support some mid-level F-gen over Iowa north of the slowing cold front, keeping PoPs (30-50%) and cloud cover around. By Thursday, the longwave trough finally reaches the Upper and Middle Mississippi River Valley, pushing the cold front completely through the area and bumping down PoPs (20-30%). Temperatures during this period are likely (60-90%) to be seasonable with highs in the low-to-mid 80s and lows in the low-to-mid 60s.

Friday...There is a lot of uncertainty on rain chances on Friday as the longwave trough still sits over the area with shortwaves likely embedded. The presence of a stationary front south of the CWA could also act as a lifting mechanism, but pockets of dry air aloft due to the northwesterly flow should hopefully keep PoPs and precipitation amounts on the lower side.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A low pressure passing through the area is forecasted to keep a BKN to OVC stratus deck around through at least early Saturday afternoon for all TAF sites. Ceilings are currently sitting between 500 to 1500 feet (MVFR to IFR conditions) and will continue to lower to 300 to 800 feet (IFR to LIFR conditions) for all TAF sites by 9 UTC. This low pressure will also bring scattered to widespread SHRA areawide which could reduce visibility below 5SM and occasionally below 2SM. These showers are expected to slowly move out of the area from northwest to southeast, clearing all TAF sites by 21 UTC. On the backside of this low pressure, wind are also forecasted to pick up out of the north to around 15-20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots possible through Saturday evening. In better news, the cloud deck should begin to scatter out by early Saturday evening, paving the way for VFR conditions to return.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.