textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy today (30-40 mph gusts) with periods of rain and isolated thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and early evening.

- Warm and seasonably humid air mass Monday through Wednesday will support periods of rain and thunderstorms, with some likely being organized posing occasional severe threats.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Windy and warmer today as a surface low tracks NW of the area through the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. Southerly flow downstream of the low will advect a warm and moist air mass into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with highs reaching the low/mid 70s on average. A tight pressure gradient and good boundary layer mixing sub-850mb will result in strong winds, sustained between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35-40 mph. A subtle shortwave currently over the Southern Plains with an associated cluster of showers and storms will ride the southwesterly flow aloft and reach eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois by the afternoon. Forcing from the shortwave and deep layer warm air advection will lead to scattered to numerous showers with embedded/isolated storms this afternoon into the early evening. There is potential for a few isolated showers and storms to develop through the mid/late morning, out ahead of the main batch of rain. Rain chances today are highest across the southeast two-thirds of the outlook area (60-80%+) and drop off to 40-60% across the northwest. Limited instability should prevent a severe risk, but with that said locally enhanced 40+ mph gusts are certainly possible with any stronger cells that develop.

Widespread cloud cover with ceiling heights decreasing through the afternoon coupled with ongoing rain, may result in a gradual drop off in temps through mid to late afternoon. Tonight looks relatively quiet as the aforementioned shortwave shifts to the NE. It will remain breezy and mild with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. Latest NBM and HREF guidance suggests rainfall amounts between 0.25 - 0.50"+ in a swath roughly in the counties along/east of the Mississippi River.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A broader western CONUS trough on Monday will gradually move east-northeast and over the Midwest by Wednesday, potentially acquiring a negative tilt as it does so. With a surface front in the vicinity, likely oscillating some due to mesoscale effects, this presents an active pattern in the region.

Monday...Confidence is high in the surface warm front lifting north of the area by or during Monday morning. An elevated mixed layer (EML) is forecast to move over, and deterministic guidance generally is void of any short waves in that time. So those two together currently indicate much of if not the entire daytime could be quiet in our forecast area, and a warm and increasingly humid one with high temperatures 75 to 80 favored and dew points increasing into the mid 60s. Convective development is most favored ahead of the low which currently is in the southern Minnesota region later Monday. The right entrance region of the jet is forecast to move a little more north of east, while thickness diffluence would support organized convection potentially tracking a little more south of east and being more problematic for our area with a severe wind threat Monday night.

SPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms along the Highway 20 corridor with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk down to I-80. Confidence remains low on storm coverage for Monday night and whether or not storms developing north of the area Monday afternoon and evening will congeal into a line and drop to the southeast into portions of the outlook area. The NBM has 20-50% PoPs (highest across the north) which seems reasonable given the uncertainty. If storms do manage to drop in from the north later Monday night, it appears the primary threat would be strong wind gusts.

Tuesday and Wednesday...The first low pressure weakens while a second, stronger one deepens in the western to central Plains Tuesday. This type of setup is common with a slow-moving western CONUS upper trough. The surface boundary on most guidance is forecast to be slightly north to over the area and likely reacquiring warm frontal characteristic Tuesday P.M., although that may depend on any mesoscale convective influences that are simply too difficult to pinpoint at this distance. If no convective effects, temperatures should be able to top 80 areawide with 15-17C under a southwesterly low-level jet and a very warm starting point to the day (60s -- potential daily record warm lows for April 14). Obviously with a warm front in the area during mid-spring, that will be a time period to watch, including possible heavy rainfall Tuesday night. As that low approaches the area, possibly the best kinematics of the few days spread over the area Wednesday, although timing differences become much more evident in ensemble memberships and deterministic guidance at this point. All in all, this presents a 48 hour period or so from Monday night through Wednesday evening with some severe weather threat, with specific magnitudes and timing being more resolved as we draw closer.

Beyond...Pattern looks to stay active but possibly more progressive during the latter half of next week. With no significant cool air behind it, temperatures should remain above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

An active period is expected with rounds of showers and isolated storms, MVFR/IFR ceilings, windy conditions, and LLWS tonight into early Sunday AM. Showers/rain will be most widespread Sunday afternoon into the early evening, with isolated/low coverage activity possible Sunday morning. The best thunder chances Sunday PM are at MLI and BRL so have mentioned in PROB30s at these two sites. Ceilings will deteriorate through the day on Sunday with IFR possible late in the period. As mentioned, strong winds are expected (from the SSW) with gusts between 30-35 kts from mid morning Sunday into the early evening before decreasing to 20-25 kts.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.