textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool conditions expected through Friday (highs in the 60s), with overall prospects for rain late this week decreasing.

- A pattern change is expected this weekend into next week leading to above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Today: Another nice day is expected with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s on average and low humidity. Expect a steady breeze out of the east gusting a little over 20 mph through the day. The easterly low-level flow will continue to advect a dry air mass into the region as noted on model time-height sections showing very dry conditions in the sub-cloud layer with RH under 20% at times. We will see an increase in low/mid clouds from the southwest with ceilings mainly staying above 5000 ft AGL. But aside from a chance for occasional sprinkles or very spotty/brief light rain, most of the area should remain dry through the day.

Friday: The forecast is trending much drier as the surface low is expected to track more to the east through the Ohio Valley, which will maintain the dry easterly low-level flow over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. QPF amounts now look minimal with parts of the area potentially staying dry all together. For the Friday morning - Friday night 24 hr period, the EC ensemble only has 10-25% probabilities for 0.10" of rainfall across the outlook area, highest across the far south.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Sunday through Wednesday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of warmer than normal temperatures

The holiday weekend still looks to be mainly dry although a rogue diurnal shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

The flow pattern changes with southwest flow aloft developing as an upper level ridge develops on the east coast. The net result is temperatures climbing above normal starting Sunday and continuing through next week.

Starting Tuesday humidity levels will be much more noticeable and uncomfortable as dew points climb into the mid 60s. The increased moisture combined with the very warm temperatures and passing upper level disturbances is expected to result in mainly diurnal convection both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon and evening. Right now the model consensus has rain chances at 20 to 40 percent.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

VFR expected to prevail through the period with steady easterly winds continuing, gusting near 20 kts at times on Thursday. Increasing clouds in the 5000-10000 ft AGL layer are anticipated heading into Thursday, but a dry sub-cloud layer should prevent measurable rain at the terminals.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.