textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Pleasant Spring-like Mother's Day is in store today.

- A clipper-like system late Monday night into Tuesday morning is forecast to bring scattered (30-60%) showers and thunderstorms to the region.

- Warm up expected late week with temperatures reaching into the 80s by Friday as the next storm system approaches.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Weak cold advection in a rather loose pressure gradient continues this morning, as high pressure pushes south over the Plains. While our pressure gradient is expected to be weak today, winds aloft remain brisk, especially in our north 1/2, and that will result in some gusty mid day winds again.

Sun will be expected to start the day in all areas, but by late morning, model soundings all show decent high based cumulus formation, leading to at least a scattered deck of CU, possibly broken at times. This 7-9kft mixing depth will also tap stronger mid level winds, and result in gusts into the 20 to 25 mph range this afternoon. Thus, highs in the mid 60s north to upper 60s south will feel a touch cool in the afternoon when clouds are overhead.

By this evening, lingering flattened cumulus, or AC will thin and linger a bit past sunset, before clearing is expected. Lows tonight will be cool, generally upper 30s north to mid to upper 40s south. I don't believe the frost potential is very high tonight, but did retain patchy frost in Iowa, in our extreme northern counties where lows of 36-37 are more possible.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Monday... As the longwave trough over the Great Lakes and high pressure over Wisconsin slide to the east, ridging builds in over the CWA. Large-scale subsidence on Monday will provide mostly sunny skies with highs in the 60s north of I-80 and 70s south. This is not expected to last long as a developing 850-700 mb f-gen band will push clouds in from north Monday night.

Tuesday... A clipper-like system over northern Minnesota is forecasted to propagate into Wisconsin as the next shortwave trough in south-central Canada dives into the Northern Plains. A band of light stratiform rain will develop across northeast Iowa and northern Illinois associated with the f-gen previously mentioned. Dry air in the low levels should limit QPF values to a few hundredths of an inch north of I-80 and up to a trace south. Regardless of precipitation though, winds will be gusty Tuesday afternoon as the cold front moves through the region with gusts up to 35 mph possible as southerly flow flips to northwesterly. Skies should clear out Tuesday night as CAA and ageostrophic convergence aloft on the backside of the passing trough sets in.

Wednesday-Thursday afternoon... A repeat of Monday as another longwave ridge builds in from the west Wednesday and a high pressure anchors to our north. Highs will be seasonable in the mid-60s to mid- 70s with light northerly winds. Things start to shake up on Thursday when the next trough over the northern Rockies kicks the high pressure to the east, shifting the winds to southerly once again.

Thursday night-Saturday... The trough over the northern Rockies moves into the Northern Plains, deepening a low pressure center over Dakotas Thursday night. This strengthens the 1000-700 mb mean flow to 20-30 knots out of the south-southwest which advects in much needed moisture into the region with PWATs increasing over 0.5 inch overnight Thursday. The approaching cold front will be the focal point of convection Friday. While it is too far out to determine the severity of these storms, the latest ENS run shows a 20-50% of MUCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg across the CWA.

The cold front swings through Friday night into Saturday morning as the shortwave becomes negatively tilted over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Dry and cold air advection will clear things out of precipitation from west to east, but the exact timing is uncertain as there is disagreement among the GEFS and ENS members on the propagation speed and track of this low pressure system. Nevertheless, highs in 80s on Friday are becoming increasingly likely while Saturday will be dependent on the timing of the front.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecasted for the next 24-hour period. Mostly clear skies will persist through Sunday afternoon when a SCT to BKN diurnal cumulus deck develops along and north of I-80. Lack of low-level moisture should keep ceilings above 7 kft. Due to boundary layer mixing, wind gusts up to 25 kts are possible after 17z Sunday. These gust will subside after sunset as northwesterly flow backs to northerly.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.