textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There remains an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe storms after 4 pm today across the southeast half of the DVN CWA for large hail greater than 2" and tornadoes with the initial development, transitioning to a wind threat late evening/overnight.

- The flash flood risk continues to decrease with the Slight Risk move mainly out of our area, but some localized flooding may still be possible with any repeated rounds of storms tonight mainly on the IL side.

- Turning colder and more seasonable by late week and into the weekend, with additional precipitation chances, some of which could be snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Severe Threat...Several CAM/deterministic model runs and plethora of solutions, boundary/LLVL thermal gyrations from run to run just make for confusion and wonder, but will use ensemble blends and associated conceptional ideas to try and hammer out a general idea. Looking at current sfc analysis, the sfc low culprit is currently out in west central KS, with an associated quasi-staionary boundary draped northeastward from it from southwest IA into south central WI ATTM. Have added some patchy fog in the grids along the light convergent flow along this feature for the sunrise period this morning. Broad digging upstream upper wave energy acrs the plains(and especially an embedded mid and upper jet max) will help this weak wave propagate along tightening LLVL baroclinicity toward the southwestern DVN CWA by late afternoon, and toward the southern tip of LK MI by Wed morning. Several models even slightly weaken this 1000+ MB sfc low as it traverses somewhere acrs the local fcst area. This path and the general LLVL boundary it is rippling along is vital for severe storm development and placement.

Again going back to an ensemble idea, am favoring a sfc low path from near Fairfield IA at 00z Wed, to southeast of Muscatine IA/Aledo IL location at 03-05z, and to south of Princeton IL at 06- 07z or so. Fcst soundings show strong LLVl capping/EML/CIN values right through this evening, but if the accepted low to mid 60 sfc DPTs wrapping into the warm sector in view of the low pressure are valid and ambient heating can produce MLCAPES 0f 1000-3000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, a few buoyant bubbles utilizing strong shear may break free to convect. Low to mid level shear profiles are very high, with effective shear 50-60 KTs, and close to the boundary and the triple point, fcst soundings show 0-3KM SRH's of 500+ m2/s2 and 0-1KM values of 390+ m2/s2! This with LCL's under 3K FT AGL spell tornado.

Have defined a general ensemble boundary initiation just ahead of the approaching LLVL wave from near MT Pleasant IA, to Aledo IL, and to Princeton IL from 5-7 PM CDT. Some potential for a few isolated cells elevated in nature taking off north of I-80 in extreme east central to northeast IA at the same time as the southern convection ignites, which would of course mainly be a hail threat for those storms. Aloft some nice support from a southwest plains sub upper jet streaking up this way and inducing some right entrance lift effect on the southern CWA. The boundary and warm sector storms initiate as discrete supercells growing upscale quickly with large hail(possibly to golf ball or 2"), and of course the cells on or near the boundary an eventual tornado threat. Bunker cell movement progs still suggest a northeast storm surge movement which may limit residence time for a storm on the front, but any boundary-rider right turner may have the ability to produce a rather strong tornado of EF2+ strength. The prime tornado corridor may be from Aledo in Mercer Co IL, to southern Henry Co Il and over to southeast of Princeton IL, "IF" the prime boundary placement idea is near correct. As I type this, some CAMs are trending further north again of this axis, but will side with east-northeast LLVL flow with cooling Lake MI enhancement to battle the warm front retreat and keep it further south. The weakness of the approaching sfc low and upper trof may also support a further south solution. RFD's and FFD's may produce sporadic wind damage until the cells morph more into linear clusters as they exit out of the local area after 3 or 4z.

Rainfall...Still some swaths of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall possible in areas that get repeated activity or some training(mainly on the IL side) if the 1 t 1.2" PWAT feed is correct, but the overall heavy rain threat seems to be shifting east and south of the local area and will not hoist a Flood Watch at this time.

Temperatures...Huge crap shoot and large temp bust potential from north to south depending on boundary migration and undulation. Cloud cover in spots may also be a limiter, especially post-frontal stratocu north of I-80. We may have a very tight temp/thermal gradient from north-to-south with mid 50s in the far north/Hwy 20, to near 80 in the far south. In the middle is where there could be huge descrepancies from guidance and have just tried to hammer out a 50% blend of the potential temps along I-80. Record high at Burlington?

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Quick look at longer range. Wednesday...a blustery raw day with gusty northwest wind and a cold post-frontal rain regime, possibly mixing or changing over to wet snow acrs the northwestern CWA before exiting out of the area Wed evening. Mid CONUS steering pattern change to northwest flow will look to usher down a clipper into the GRT LKS, possibly bring rain and snow to the area Thu night. Daily up and down temp trends through the weekend, and will have to watch for phasing trends of a stronger clipper that could translate into a more significant storm system Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 558 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Patchy fog has developed along the VCNTY of a boundary wavering generally along from northwest IL, to the Sigourney IA area. A low chance for some of this to get into the VCNTY of the MLI site. Otherwise a VFR TAF cycle this morning until post- frontal MVFR stratocu arrive by this afternoon, especially north of I-80. The other big factor will be for the potential for sctrd thunderstorms developing late this afternoon and evening around and south of the same boundary. These storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds along and south of the boundary which would be the MLI and BRL sites from after 4 PM through 10 PM or so. DBQ and maybe CID north of the front would be suspect to isolated storms more capable of hail, and CID may be west of all the activity and miss out. Increasing north to northeast sfc winds to 10+ KTs north of the front along and north of I80 will bring in lower MVFR stratocu acrs the areas to the north, and last well into the night. Back to the winds, from now through late this afternoon they will be variable around the wavering frontal boundary that should generally lay out along the I-80 corridor. Northeast to north winds will gather steam at CID, DBQ, and eventually MLI as the evening progresses.

CLIMATE

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures for Today:

March 10: KBRL: 76 in 1955 KMLI: 74 in 1955

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.