textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The threat for fast-moving, severe storms this continues this afternoon. A tornado watch is in effect across much of the area until 9PM.

- Heavy rain and flooding is also a threat for those areas that saw the heaviest rain earlier today. A Flood Watch is in effect until 7PM.

- Cooler and drier weather will settle in Friday, but a chance for storms returns Saturday. A few storms could be strong to severe.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Severe thunderstorm likelihood continues for this afternoon but some muddiness exists in the forecast details. The imprint on the atmosphere from the morning MCS is markedly present with stable low-level air signatures on radar and satellite, and this extends across much of our area. Offsetting this to some degree is the 1000 mb low pressure near Des Moines tracking northeast, resulting in some synoptic scale air mass recovery from the south. While southeast winds are gusting across eastern Iowa now, the amount of recovery in that is still limited due to lingering widespread cloud cover. The post MCS air mass is looking more likely to be enough to prevent a full recovery to northwest portions of the CWA, at least of a notable tornado threat and significant severe wind threat. It may even prevent it for many locations north of I-80 as well, but synoptically there is still strong forcing for ascent spreading over the area so not able to say that for certain.

In summary, the area we are particularly concerned for surface- based supercell/multicells capable of longer-lived mesocyclones is along and east of the Mississippi River and along and south of I-80 during the mid to late afternoon. Given more oblique shear orientation with respect to the incoming cold front, and just how cold frontal convection tends to evolve, it might not take long (1-3 hours after initiation) for developing storms across the CWA to become more clusters or segments, with a good bet of severe winds in any that do, some significant in any mature bowing segments (75+ mph).

Storms should be east of the area this evening as a cold front moves through. This cold front will bring northwest winds in its wake. Forecast soundings have trended down a bit, but could still see gusts in excess of 35 mph for a couple of hours after the front passes through. These winds will taper off overnight and become more westerly, and temperatures will fall into the mid 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday through Saturday...On Friday, a brief area of high pressure will build in, leading to mostly sunny skies. This will exit eastward Friday night, and southerly return flow will develop. By Saturday afternoon forecast soundings show 1000 to 2000 J/kg, with ample deep layer speed shear. A weak boundary will be the focus for scattered thunderstorms, and a few could produce severe weather. Right now large hail looks like the primary threat.

Sunday through Thursday...Ensemble guidance shows lower height anomalies spreading across the central US next week, which supports cooler temperatures. A few weak disturbances embedded in northwest flow will bring small chances for showers and thunderstorms, but overall the first half of next week appears mostly dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Main concern through 00Z this evening is scattered thunderstorms. A few storms could produce damaging wind and hail, but given the lower predictability did remove hail from the TAFs. A cold front will follow once storms exit the region this evening, bringing VFR conditions, and a brief period of gusty northwest winds. These winds will decrease later this evening and overnight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.