textproduct: Quad Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Unseasonably warm conditions through Monday may challenge records. Refer to the climate section for specific numbers. The warm temperatures will also result in an elevated risk for agricultural field fires, especially Monday.
- A cool down the second half of the week with increasing rain chances, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.
- The potential for frost will be on the increase next weekend.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Unseasonably warm conditions will be seen through Monday with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday. Record highs may be challenged, especially on Monday. Refer to the climate section for specific information.
A downside to the unseasonably warm conditions will be the development of an elevated risk for agricultural field fires on Monday.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Tuesday night through Saturday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of a cool down. Medium (40-60%) confidence regarding rain chances.
A developing tropical connection with the Gulf and the remnants of Rachel will bring surges of moisture into the area; the first Tuesday night into Wednesday and the second around Thursday.
Trends with the models are shunting the first surge of moisture to the south and east of the area due to a frontal passage that occurred Monday night. Thus there is a very real possibility that Tuesday night/Wednesday may end up being dry for much of the area.
The moisture surge centered around Thursday is stronger so this may end up being the better chance for rain. The model consensus has a 55-70 percent chance for rain centered around Thursday.
A more significant cold front will sweep through the area Friday night bringing below normal temperatures for next weekend. Although the global models have backed off a little with the colder temperatures, the prospects for the first frost appear to be on the increase especially north of I-80.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Winds to remain 10 knots or less through sunrise Sunday. After 14z/11 the nocturnal inversion will break and allow gusts up to 20 knots to develop. After 00z/12 winds will again be under 10 knots.
CLIMATE
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026
Record highs for October 11th...
Burlington, IA......88 in 1962 Cedar Rapids, IA....88 in 1962 Dubuque, IA.........85 in 1928 and previous years Moline, IL..........88 in 1962
Record Warm Lows for October 12th...
Dubuque, IA.........64 in 1997 Moline, IL..........68 in 1997
Record highs for October 12th...
Burlington, IA......86 in 2024 and previous years Cedar Rapids, IA....88 in 1995 Dubuque, IA.........86 in 1886 Moline, IL..........87 in 1947
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.
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