textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An Arctic front is slated to sweep through the area this afternoon into the evening, bringing a period of strong west winds and scattered snow showers, resulting in blowing snow. Travel impacts from drifting snow and significantly reduced visibility are likely, including during the evening commute, particularly along and north of Highway 30 in/near areas that received an inch or more of snow last night. Given this existing snowpack for portions of our northern forecast area, we have decided on a Blizzard Warning for Buchanan, Delaware, Benton, Linn, and Jones counties, with a Winter Weather Advisory to the east.

- Very strong winds will accompany the Arctic front, with a High Wind Warning now in effect for portions of eastern Iowa where there is little, if any, snowpack. Wind gusts up to 60 mph are possible in these areas. A Wind Advisory remains in effect elsewhere across the region, where wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

- Bitterly cold conditions are forecast late Thursday night through Saturday morning. An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect area-wide for wind chills between -20 to -40 degrees F.

- A winter storm will pass through the southern CONUS Friday through the weekend but is trending northward and could spread light snow across parts of the area. Probabilities for an inch of snow are 20- 40% along and south of a Freeport to Cedar Rapids line.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Hazardous, even dangerous, travel is expected for portions of the area later this afternoon as a potent Arctic front sweeps through the area. The front, currently positioned over central Iowa, will bring very strong wind gusts with it, thanks to steepening low-level lapse rates and a very strong isallobaric component, with strong pressure rises in the wake of the boundary. Measured wind gusts along the Missouri River as of 2 PM this afternoon were reported around 50 to 60+ mph. Comparing these magnitudes to the 21.12z HREF ensemble, these values are near the maximum value of the ensemble, which would translate to wind gusts up to 60 mph over eastern Iowa late this afternoon into the evening hours. Additionally, an enhanced 925-850 mb layer FGEN band along the Arctic front will lead to scattered snow showers along the boundary. The snow showers, coupled with the strong west-northwest winds, will result in dangerous travel conditions for the evening commute. Considering that light snow accumulations occurred last night (generally 1-4"), mainly for our northwest and north-central forecast area, the dry, fluffy snowpack should easily be lofted in these winds, which gives us concern for significantly reduced visibility, even whiteout conditions at times, due to blowing snow! With all this said, we have upgraded a portion of our headlines (on the Iowa side) to a Blizzard Warning for Buchanan, Delaware, Benton, Linn, and Jones counties, with a Winter Weather Advisory maintained to the east. Additionally, we also upgraded a portion of the Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning, where winds could also gust up to 60 mph, but without an existing snowpack, reduced visibilties aren't expected to be as bad. These hazardous travel conditions are expected through most of the evening hours, with improving conditions after midnight tonight.

As far as temperatures are concerned, a very cold night is expected tonight, although not quite cold enough to warrant a cold weather headline. Still, overnight lows behind the Arctic front will fall to the single digits above zero along and north of Highway 30, with lower/middle teens to the south. Wind chills will fall to around -10 to -20 degrees F along and north of Highway 30, steadily warming as you go south.

While we're not expecting much for precipitation on Thursday, the very cold air mass and cyclonic flow lingering aloft will result in some very light snow or flurries for the late morning through the afternoon, mainly along and north of Interstate 80. Temperatures will warm to the upper teens along the Highway 20 corridor, to the lower 30s along and south of Highway 92. MUCH colder conditions will then be on the way for late Thursday night through Saturday. More on that in the Long Term discussion below.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

For Thursday night through the early part of next week, the focus will be on a frigid air mass building over the area, likely leading to the coldest temperatures/wind chills we've experienced yet this season. An arctic front sweeps through the area Thursday night/Friday morning, leading to 850 mb temperatures dipping to 22 to 27 degrees C below zero over much of the area by 12z/6 AM Friday per the GEFS/ECWMF ensembles. Values from these ensembles around -23 to -25 degrees C over the Quad Cities would reach the daily minimum for DVN on January 23 per the SPC sounding climatology, so we're talking bitterly cold conditions. The latest LREF ensemble exceedance probabilities of wind chills -20 degrees F (threshold for Cold Weather Advisory over most of our CWA) is around 70-90+% area- wide, along with chances of -30 degrees F (threshold for Extreme Cold Warning over most of our CWA) is around 50-80+%! We continue to carry the Extreme Cold Watch across the CWA, with the expectation that we will very likely need an Extreme Cold Warning over our northern CWA. The question remains just how far south will it need to extend. It should be more than cold enough to need at least a Cold Weather Advisory area-wide. Expect a dangerously cold Friday morning, so stay tuned to the forecast! It does appear that these very cold conditions will continue into the upcoming weekend, but to what degree remains uncertain as these exceedance probabilities from the LREF do lower a good bit, so uncertainty exists. It's possible that more cold weather headlines will be needed Saturday morning, too.

As far as precipitation chances are concerned, we're seeing some northward trend in some of the deterministic and ensembles to the strong southern states winter storm slated for Friday through the weekend. LREF and NBM have jumped to 20-40% probabilities for an inch or more of snow for areas roughly south of a Freeport to Cedar Rapids line, as some indications of more phasing of the northern and southern streams could bring the system and its expansive precip shield farther north. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days!

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions with some periodic transitory bouts of MVFR ceilings and flurries possible along and behind a passing Arctic front Thursday afternoon into early evening. NW winds gusting 15-25 kt will diminish to around 10 kt or less and back to W/SW overnight into Thursday morning ahead of the front. With the frontal passage in the afternoon winds will become gusty at 20-30+ kt from WNW and remain gusty through the rest of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ042- 054. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ066-068- 087>089-098-099. IL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ001- 002-007. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ009-015>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for MOZ009-010. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ009-010.