textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances today into tonight. Locally heavy rain/isolated flash flooding is the main concern, along with lightning. Gusty winds are also possible.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions becoming more likely (50-80%) Sunday through the middle of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Subtle impulse noted in water vapor imagery over E Iowa early this morning. Attendant upper level divergence atop a weak mid level boundary and the presence of a weak surface moisture convergence axis is fostering isolated to scattered pockets of convection near to north of Hwy 30 early this morning, with additional isolated convection along the SE Iowa/NE Missouri border. Very weak flow (10 kt or less of wind through 700 mb on KDVN VWP) is lending to very slow movement and areas of locally heavy rain, with estimates of over 1 to 2 inches of rain in northern portions of Jones County, Iowa where convection has been repetitive in some locations. Will likely see some convection persist through daybreak (scattered coverage north of I-80 to Hwy 20, and isolated further south) before this wave passes. Wouldn't rule out at least some isolated activity lingering beyond deeper through the morning, but what we're monitoring is the MCS over Kansas as it shifts eastward. Seeing more consensus in the guidance for a convectively augmented vort max or MCV emanating from this MCS and propagating in the vicinity of S Iowa and N Missouri later this afternoon into evening. NBM hourly PoPs appear to be too low and so we have bumped up PoPs more in line with CONSshort guidance to give more scattered (30-50%) coverage south of I-80 by mid afternoon into this evening. Wouldn't be surprised to see some higher coverage (60%+) in some southern areas. Tapered PoPs to 15-25% north of I-80 with any residual boundaries and an uncapped environment. Locally heavy rain and isolated instances of flash flooding will be the primary concern with very weak surface to 700 mb flow owing to slow cell movement amidst a moist atmosphere with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 to 1.75 inches (highest south). Could easily see 1-2 inch rain amounts in an hour, and with any persistence or repetitive convection the potential is there for isolated pockets of 3+ inches as suggested in the 00z HREF 24 hr QPF ensemble localized probability matched mean (LPMM). Given the weak low to mid level flow, the severe threat appears to be very low, but still non-zero. Gusty winds (30-40+ mph) would be the main concern especially with any precip loading, but will also have to keep an eye out for any augmentation of the vertical wind shear from the MCV which if occurs could increase the severe threat some for at least an isolated threat (wind) south. In addition, can't rule out some funnel clouds once again this afternoon into early evening along any boundaries where surface vorticity can be maximized within sufficient 0-3km MLCAPE.

Convection should gradually diminish in coverage later this evening and overnight, while focusing primarily south, but we may not see a quiet radar until late tonight or possibly early Saturday AM after the wave has passed.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Much of the period Saturday through the middle of next week looks to be dry with warming temperatures. In fact, some of the deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest an upper ridge building into the Northern Plains potentially strengthening to incredibly over 600 dam! This will likely result in some historic heat for the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains this weekend into next week. We will be warming this weekend into early next week, but the much more impressive low level airmass (925 mb temps +25 to +35C) will remain entrenched well to our west from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains. We should warm well into the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs by Sunday through the middle of next week. The hottest days look to be Tuesday/Wednesday when the upper ridge builds in (595+ dam 500 mb heights) and more widespread highs in the 90s appear likely. However, at the surface we are likely to have high pressure in/near the area which should keep the dew points and subsequent humidity levels more in check compared to our previous bout of heat in late June/early July. Nonetheless, it will be hot with highs in the 90s and heat index readings well in the 90s to possibly nearing 100 in a few spots Tuesday/Wednesday.

Heading into the latter half of next week, there are signs for a return of precipitation chances via either 1) the flattening of the upper ridge and restrengthening out west due to passage of canadian shortwave(s), and/or 2) upper level energy cutoff and undercutting the ridge while retrograding westward into the Midwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

For the next few hours we'll see some patchy fog, particularly near BRL which recently received rainfall. The fog may drop visibilities from MVFR to LIFR before improving to VFR by 14z. There is a very low chance for a stray shower this morning north of Hwy 30 near CID and DBQ, but the potential is too low for mention. Later this afternoon into evening we will likely see better chances for showers and storms particularly south of I-80, as a disturbance over Kansas moves eastward. Have added PROB30 mention at both MLI and BRL for now (20z-02z), but wouldn't rule out needing to increase this mention especially at BRL. Conditions will likely be MVFR to IFR in any showers and storms with heavy downpours and gusty winds possible. Coverage is looking to be more isolated north of Highway 30 and thus have opted to leave out any precipitation mention at CID and DBQ at this time. Fog and MVFR to locally IFR/LIFR visibilities may re-develop late tonight/early Saturday morning especially at any sites that receive rainfall today.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.