textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy, very warm, and dry conditions are expected Friday, leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the southeastern portions of the area.

- Split flow over the CONUS that favors northwest flow will be seen through the weekend. Weak systems in the flow will bring the prospects of some precipitation to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The remainder of the day will see more sunshine as clouds gradually diminish this afternoon from west to east as drier air filters in. Despite mostly clear skies tonight, persistent west to southwest flow will help keep temperatures from cooling off too much, with overnight lows expected in the upper 20s to lower 30s - warmest south of Highway 92.

Attention then turns to Friday, where a windy and dry day is in store. A potent area of low pressure progged to develop over southern Canada should help maintain southwesterly winds Friday, with an impressive warm-up expected. 850 mb temperatures are progged by the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles to increase to around 5 to 8 degrees C Friday afternoon, which is near the 90th percentile per the ECMWF 850 mb temperature climatological percentiles for this time of the year. This will result in high temperatures warming to 60 degrees or warmer for most locations, mainly along and south of a Marengo, IA to Freeport, IL. Temperatures should be cooler over northeastern Iowa, especially for locations nearer to the existing snowpack. There could also be some isolated areas reaching 70 degrees for highs across our southern tier of counties. At this time, no record highs are expected. See our Climate section for the record high values for February 27th.

Southwesterly winds are expected to increase with abundant sunshine and deepening boundary layer mixing. How deeply we mix remains uncertain, but plenty strong flow aloft should be able to mix down to the surface. We have boosted wind gusts for Friday, with the potential for 40 mph gusts in play over west-central Illinois. With this all said, there is concern for elevated to even critical fire weather conditions for our southeastern portions of the area. Please see our Fire Weather section for more details.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A northwesterly flow pattern continues to bring an active weather period to the region. Friday night will be quiet as temperatures drop to below freezing behind a dry cold front. As we head into the weekend, precipitation chances return.

Saturday brings the first of these chances to areas north of Highway 30. The greatest uncertainty for this event is the southern extent of the precipitation, as forcings indicate that a sharp gradient in amounts will be present. Up to an inch of snow is expected, with all accumulation occurring during the day.

Following a dry Saturday night, Sunday holds the second chance for precipitation, associated with an embedded shortwave. Snow is expected with this system as temperatures remain near freezing. However, where the snow will impact is still uncertain. The models show a southward trend in the precipitation area, with the highest pops (40-60%) south of Interstate 80. If these trends continue, the impacted area with our CWA will continue to shrink as impacts shift southward.

Looking forward, model guidance suggests another system is likely by midweek as a defined shortwave moves to our southwest. Precipitation is likely (pops 30-50%), with the highest pops in the southern half of the CWA. However, a wide spread of ensemble members and models brings into question the track and potential for precipitation with this system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

TAFs are forecast to be VFR through the period. Dry air in place will cause clear skies with only a few high clouds. West winds around 5 knots this evening will turn to the south after 6 UTC with winds increasing after 15 UTC and speeds increasing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots. The highest wind gusts are expected at KBRL and KMLI.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Southwest winds gusting between 30 to 40 mph, combined with very dry fuels and low humidity levels dropping to 25 to 35 percent will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions Friday. The area most susceptible to these conditions will be over southeastern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west- central Illinois, where winds will be their strongest.

In addition to the winds, an anomalously warm air mass will be in place, with high temperatures warming to the middle/upper 60s to lower 70s across our southeastern forecast area. Forecast relative humidity values continue to trend down due to a very dry air mass in place, with minimum RH values expected to dip to the 25 to 35 percent range. These conditions have resulted in GFDI values reaching the critical level, and we have issued a Fire Weather Watch now in effect from Noon through 6 PM Friday. An upgrade to a Red Flag Warning is likely for at least a portion of these areas, with a Special Weather Statement for elevated fire weather conditions likely needed.

CLIMATE

Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Record highs for February 27th

Burlington, IA.......77 in 2024 Cedar Rapids, IA.....72 in 2024 Dubuque, IA..........72 in 2024 Moline, Il...........79 in 2024

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for IAZ067-068-078-087>089- 098-099. IL...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for ILZ009-015>018-024>026- 034-035. MO...Fire Weather Watch Friday afternoon for MOZ009-010.