textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly (but still not far from normals) days will continue through Tuesday with cold nights, especially Monday night when a freeze is expected.

- A few passing rain or snow showers are possible through mid-week, with low amounts of rain if they occur.

- Another widespread rainfall event is gaining confidence late this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Strong winds have been mixing down on occasion late this past evening and early this morning, as strong cold advection continues to bring unstable low levels mixing down those gusts to 40-45 mph, and even creating a few light showers in the northeast 1/2 of the area. Some of those have wetted pavement in a few locations, but measurable rain should be extremely limited the past 12 hours.

After yesterday's highs in the 40s, today's at least mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will seem much more pleasant, though the breeze of 10 to 15 mph will continue to gust to 25 mph this morning, adding some chill to the air. Yesterday's guidance verified below the 10th percentile NBM, but given the sun available today, I'll lean close to the 50th percentile NBM, which has most locations reaching 52-53 today, and some urban areas reaching 54.

An evening lull in the winds and will quickly give way to another push of stronger northwest winds towards late evening and overnight as a push of much colder air spreads south into the Corn-Belt associated with a surface 1035mb+ high pressure. A few showers much like this past evening are possible in this transition, resulted in light qpf and some passing cloud cover. If stratus does fill in behind the front, Monday will be much cooler than our forecast, but for now, we're seeing highs in the mid 40s north to lower 50s south in cold advection.

The coldest air will be over the area Monday night and Tuesday. Clearing north appears likely Monday night, and with light winds, we're looking at lows in the lower 20s confidently north of I-80, and upper 20s to low 30s south where cloud cover could linger through the night, as F-gen begins to set up for Tuesday's light rain/snow chances in the south. This will bring us to a challenging headline decision for Monday night probably later today on the day shift, as we have coordinated with counties to "turn on" Frost/Freeze products for counties from Louisa IL, to Keokuk County IA, and south. Farther north, we are not as susceptible, but will certainly be very cold Monday night.

Cloud cover, southeast winds and some low end chances for light rain/light snow showers will exist Tuesday, resulting in a strong potential for a cold day, similar to yesterday, as highs reach the low 40s north to mid 40s south. While F-gen will bring plenty of clouds to the area Tuesday, the dry southeast winds will bring questionable saturation to the surface, thus, pops are relatively low in this period, as most of the activity will be in central Iowa and westward.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

An active, and warmer pattern remains expected Wednesday through the weekend ahead as southwest to zonal flow aloft, brings a sustained period of rain/thunderstorm chances to the region. A warm front is expected to set up in the area, with an open gulf moisture feed resulting in a prolonged period of wet weather and chances for significant rainfall again. Severe weather will not be something easily resolved this far out given the lack of consistent signal in synoptic forcing, beyond the active warm front in place. WPC continues to show wide swath of QPF in the outer periods of the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with gusty northwest winds through the day. We can expect gusts between 20-25 KTs through the afternoon, becoming light and westerly around 00z this evening. Otherwise, no sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.