textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent rain to finally dissipate late this afternoon/evening from northwest to southeast. Ponding of water remains possible in urban areas and in poor drainage areas.

- Rises on area creeks, streams, tributary rivers, and within bank rises on the Mississippi is likely through the weekend. - Pleasant early Fall weather this weekend into early next week, with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Another damp and gloomy day was seen across much of the forecast area to begin the month of October. Our 18z DVN sounding showed another completely saturated sounding (2.02" PW, 2nd highest for October). As of 1 pm, an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain fell across portions of eastern IA, west central IL, and northwest IL thanks to a lead shortwave lifting northeast out of northern MO ahead of the upper low. Some locally higher amounts close to 3 inches fell in the past 12 hrs from a line from eastern Scotland county to western Mercer/Rock Island counties. This rain on top of the recent rainfall Wednesday brought flooding issues to some of the hardest hit counties with numerous creeks out of their banks, closed roads, and widespread field flooding. After talking with emergency management, decided to convert the flood watch to an areal flood warning until late Friday morning for Washington, Louisa, and Muscatine counties. Elsewhere, in coordination with neighboring offices, I have cancelled the flood watch for all areas west of the QCA.

Rest of the Afternoon/Evening

Upper level wave to lift northeast across the area, allowing scattered showers to continue moving eastward. The precip-free line is finally arriving in our northwest counties and will continue to push east southeast. Current radar estimates and CAM solutions suggest rain rates will be lighter than earlier today, with 0.1"-0.3"/hr possible. Can't completely rule out some ponding issues in urban and poor drainage areas, but not anticipating widespread issues. With such a saturated ground, rises on area creeks/streams is likely over the next 12-24 hours before they begin to recede. See hydrology section for additional details.

Looking upstream, a drier airmass is beginning to make its way into northern IA and will push through the CWA around midnight tonight. This airmass, light north wind, and cloud cover should keep any fog formation at bay. Overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s/low 50s.

Friday, any lingering rain will be east of the area prior to sunrise. High pressure to build into the area and we will finally see some wall-to-wall sunshine! Afternoon highs to top out in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Friday Night Through Sunday...

Dry, pleasant conditions are on the forecast for the weekend. Upper- levels will be mainly zonal with a shortwave trough overnight Saturday connecting to a surface low north of the Great Lakes. This will sweep a weak boundary through our area Sunday morning bringing a shift in the winds from southerly to northerly. Due to low moisture content, we are expecting dry frontal passage with some passing high clouds. Mostly clear skies, with relatively light winds, and low moisture means the weekend should be very nice for any outdoor activities. Highs will sit comfortably in the 60s to 70s. With the northerly winds, we should see lows go from 50s Saturday evening, to 40s Sunday night.

Next Week...

High pressure will set up over the area for the start of the week, which will continue the pleasant weather. Another weak shortwave trough could bring a slight chance for rain along a cold front Wednesday, but probs are very low (<15%) due to lacking moisture return. A wind shift and some passing clouds will be the main sign of a passing system, with dry frontal passage seeming more likely at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions to continue through the rest of the afternoon/early evening, with conditions improving to VFR from northwest to southeast after 00z behind fropa. Sub 1kft cigs and reductions in vsbys in rain is likely at MLI/BRL this afternoon and have included a TEMPO for the worst conditions. No thunder is anticipated. Winds to remain northerly through the period.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Now that we've seen where most of the rain has fallen and how rivers are beginning to respond, many of the river forecasts have been adjusted downward since yesterday. While all rivers and creeks are responding to the rainfall, we are no longer expecting flooding along the Rock River nor along the Mississippi River. Some of the rivers that do flood may remain above flood stage for several days before receding due to the widespread stratiform nature of this rainfall.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098. IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ007-009-015>018-024. MO...None.