textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Some chance for an isolated to widely scattered high based shower or storm through tonight, but dryness battling this process.

- Strong to severe storms still posssible Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of the area with risk areas expanding back westward.

- Blustery cooler Friday, then warming again over the weekend with next main rain chances Monday night into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Tonight...Elevated fire danger continues into this evening especially on the IL side. The latest water vapor imagery showing a broad upper ridge with Pacific feed mid and upper level moisture ringing around it with IA and northern IL under the right flank northwesterly flow. This flow embedded by passing upper waves/vorts, with one such wave dropping toward the area currently. Some mid deck clouds and mainly elevated RADAR returns being induced by this feature currently acrs central into southeast IA. But as the late afternoon and early to mid evening progress, increasing LLJ of 25 to 35 KTs may look to fire isolated to wdly sctrd high based showers or even a thunderstorm in THTA-E convergent zones acrs the southern into eastern portions of the DVN CWA, favoring the IL side especially the I-80 corridor east of the Quad Cities. If we do manage to get some elevated convection going, they may be able to produce hail looking at cold profiles aloft. But probably not severe size however, with marginal mid layer MUCAPEs. Low temps ranging from the 40s north to the mid and upper 50s south as a quasi-stationary sfc boundary undulates acrs the area making for a nocturnal light and variable sfc wind regime. The front will look to sharpen up and take on warm front characteristics late tonight and Thu morning.

Thursday and storm scenarios...LLVL Baroclinicity really tightens from the central plains over to the southwestern GRT LKS, while the next short wave aloft digs toward the region. Some LLVL cyclogenesis to continue to evolve on the LLVL temp gradient and sfc wave propagates eastward along the thermal ribbon. The initial weaker wave will look to pass eastward quick during the morning, with a stronger sfc low developing upstream acrs NE/KS, and sinking southeastward acrs MO through Thu evening. This scenario will allow the boundary to switch over to a cool front quicker with northeast sfc winds becoming gusty and LK Michigan cool enhanced for southward punch power as the day progresses. Prefer the models such as the latest ECMWF that has the main sfc cold front south of the DVN CWA by late afternoon and evening. This will make sfc temp and boundary layer thermal trends very challenging, with 12 hour high temps occurring in the morning north of I80, and temps crashing south of I-80 by mid to late afternoon. Will be interesting to see if we get a record high at Burlington IA(84 in 1991) before FROPA.

As for storm development, fcst soundings continue to show quite a strong capping EML acrs much of the area and we will initially have just some precursor elevated showers earlier in the day before better lift from the incoming wave and right entrance mid/upper jet streak deep lifts northern edge/gradient of optimum deep convective index parameters that will still be acrs the southern to east central portions of the DVN CWA by late afternoon(as long as the low 60 sfc DPTs pooled along the front occur in those areas). Thus we may(can we break the cap?) have storm initiation after 3 PM from acrs far southeast IA and up toward the I-80 corridor east of the Quad Cities, with the IL activity probably going first. The far southeast IA/northeast MO convection may zipper west and fire after 00z Friday. With strong effective shear profiles and if most convection takes off supercell in nature and along and post- frontally, large hail will be the primary threat. The fcst kinematics and thermodynamics suggest hail to golf balls or even 2 inches possible especially with the initial storms acrs IL, but some big hailers may also occur along and just south of the DVN CWA by mid evening(8-11 PM). If the front is a bit slower than accepted progression, may be a better chance for a warm sector storm where all modes of severe will be possible. But see that taking place more off to the east and southeast of the DVN CWA. As for rainfall amounts, not a drought buster but 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch of rainfall possible on the IL side into far southeast IA and northeast MO.

Robust LLVL cold advection into Friday morning for lows well down in the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Friday still appearing to be a blustery post-frontal day with temperatures in the 40s and the areas south of I-80 lucky to breach 50 degrees.

Then a re-bounding western upper high and strengthening thermal ridge to our southwest will build northeastward again starting another warming trend across the area Saturday and especially into the end of the longer range. Ensembles continue to bring a piece of ridge-riding wave energy with some moisture return to produce the next round of showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Along with this chance their may be the potential for stronger storms again. Then even longer range guidance continues to show an active pattern evolving if the western CONUS upper trof can get established.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at all TAF sites through at least 18 UTC Thursday. A cold front is forecast to move across the area from 12 to 21 UTC from KDBQ to KBRL. Winds will turn to the north behind the front with gusty winds developing area wide with speed around 10 knots and gusts up to 20 and then sustained winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots between 21 and 03 UTC. MVFR ceilings are possible at KDBQ and KCID behind the front but the highest confidence is for them to develop at KDBQ after 18 UTC and continue through the remainder of the period. Thunderstorms are possible at KMLI and KBRL mainly between 21 and 03 UTC with MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Showers are possible behind the front at all TAF sites.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.