textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another unseasonably mild day today, before temps trend much cooler for the second half of the work week.

- A quick-hitting low pressure system will bring rain shower chances to portions of the area by Wednesday, otherwise generally dry conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Today...Broad scale LLVL troffiness/sfc front continues to slip along and southeast through the area ATTM, with upstream ridge acrs the upper MO RVR Valley ready to slide in it's wake and make for another fair wx day with well above normal temperatures and plenty of sunshine. Will undercut loaded sf DPTs, and even with marginal mixing high temps today will be worthy of going above the 50 percentile again, supporting values in the low to mid 60s. Sfc winds generally to go from post-frontal northwest to north 5-10 MPH to light and variable during the afternoon and early evening.

Tonight... With dry airmass in place and low sfc DPTs, expect a quick temp drop-off after sunset in light sfc wind regime. Then eyes turn to a clipper-like low pressure system(seen now on water vapor imagery acrs northern ID) that will look to skirt down acrs the eastern DVN CWA by sunrise Wed morning. Elevated WAA processes out ahead of it as well as inducing some sfc wind return flow may make for a non-diurnal temp trend after midnight into early Wed morning with steady to slow rise trends. Will keep POPs at non-mentioanble precip levels through 12z Wed with dry air to overcome and top-down saturation concerns, but the aggressive ECMWF has rain moving into the western CWA before dawn.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Wednesday...Dealing with the passing clipper, most models suggest it to be a rather vigorous one aided by some mid to upper jet support rounding it's base as it digs down right acrs the area. But several models including the available CAMs just skirt the north and then eastern CWA with a sctrd lighter showers, and then out of the local CWA by late afternoon. The latest RRFS barely has anything or just a few light showers and sprinkles skirting the northern CWA, probably taking into account the dry airmass to overcome despite some good lift. All this in contrast to the aggressive and further south ECMWF which streaks light to moderate showers acrs most of the CWA, with rainfall amounts of 0.10 to 0.30 acrs the southern 3/4's of the DVN fcst area. This includes a few streaks of higher QPF of 0.40 to over a half inch of rainfall along and south of I-80 by Wed evening. With the uncertainty, will expand the 20-30 chance POPs acrs much of the area. With the vigorous wave and signs of mid level lapse rates reaching toward 7 C/km, there may even be a chance for an isolated thunderstorm especially if the ECMWF thermodynamic profiles pan out.

Temps a challenge for Wednesday with cloud cover and precip/evapo- cooling processes and may lean toward the cooler side of guidance for temps in the 50s. Post sfc wave LLVL pressure gradient and in- wrapping cold conveyor should make for blustery northwesterly sfc winds Wed afternoon and evening of 15 to 25 MPH and higher gusts. Cold advection to bring about Wed night lows well down in the 30s.

Thursday and Friday...Upper jet pattern and mass field evolution on the latest medium range ensembles suggest a high amplitude pattern acrs the CONUS this period, with a large deep upper trof acrs the GRT LKS and eastern CONUS, while a stout upper ridge edges up the Intermountain West and Rockies. A near meridional fetch between these two regimes down the Upper to Mid MS RVR Valley regions will allow colder Canadian air to spill down the western GRT LKS for a chilly end to the week for the local area. Highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s through Saturday morning. A few models want to wrap some stratocu with embedded light precip down along and just east of the DVN CWA on Thursday with thicknesses low enough to bring about precip type concerns, but those are the outliers for now and will keep it dry.

Saturday through Monday...Will keep it dry and cool for Saturday into Sunday with a messy blocked pattern engulfing much of the CONUS. May have to watch for an under-cutting wave ejecting out of the southwestern CWA and trying to whirl some precip up this way by Sunday night, but again dry air in place and limited moisture feed make this solution questionable. Longer range mass field signs of a strong thermal ridge then trying to build back from the west and acrs the upper Midwest could mean a return to a dry and well above normal temp regime for the first half of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Another VFR TAF cycle through Wednesday morning as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Generally a light sfc wind regime with the winds continuing to veer to the northwest or north this morning, then trending light and variable by late afternoon. Just streaks of cirrus for any type of cloud cover in the ongoing dry air mass.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.