textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight, level 2 out of 5, risk of severe storms for much of the area Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind and hail are the primary severe risks but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

- If storms could repeat over the same areas Saturday afternoon and evening, a flash flood risk is possible due to recent rainfall.

- More active weather is expected around the middle of next week when two separate storm systems are forecast to move through the Midwest.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Less humid and cooler conditions will be seen across the area today and tonight. Attention then turns to Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Saturday/Saturday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on storms. Some may be severe.

The first half of the weekend will be interesting.

The morning hours on Saturday should be mainly dry. During the afternoon a cold front approaches the area. An upper level disturbance moving out of the Plains will initiate storms around mid- day across northern Iowa back into eastern Nebraska. Some of the extended CAMs show the storms growing upscale into one or more lines across central Iowa that race east southeast in bowing segments. These lines would pass through the area during the very late afternoon and evening hours.

The current Slight, level 2 out of 5, risk from the Storm Prediction Center looks reasonable. Mid-level lapse rates are progged to be quite steep and thus supportive of large to very large hail. If the bowing segments currently suggested by the CAMs are correct, then damaging winds would be a concern. Where conditions are favorable in the bowing segments, a brief spin up tornado cannot be ruled out.

A rough estimate on timing for the storms looks to be 4 to 10 PM but could be delayed by 2 hours.

An additional concern would be the potential for heavy rain across the area. The ground over much of the area ranges from quite wet to saturated. Storm scale interactions occurring late Saturday afternoon and evening may allow storms to repeat over the same areas which would create a flash flood risk.

Tuesday through Wednesday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on rain chances

All global models prog two separate systems moving through the Midwest around the middle of the week. The various solutions are putting more emphasis on the second, stronger system.

The first system is progged to move through the area Tuesday afternoon and night. However, there are questions regarding moisture availability for the first system.

Interestingly, the model trend has been to get slowly wetter with time. This may be in response to the Integrated Vapor Transport slowly getting stronger. IF this is correct then rain chances may slowly increase from the current 20-30 percent for the area Tuesday afternoon and night. A closer look at the larger synoptic scale suggests the return flow from the Gulf is taking the long track through Mexico and west Texas due to high pressure in the deep south. Thus this uptick in pops may be a result of the moist bias in the models.

The better chances for rain look to be Wednesday/Wednesday night when the stronger clipper-type system moves through the Midwest. The high over the deep south has moved east allowing the Gulf to open up. A respectable LLJ develops helping to transport moisture north.

However, timing now comes into play regarding when the deeper moisture arrives for the system. That appears to be Wednesday night, which if correct, would indicate the better rain chances are east of the Mississippi. Indeed, the model consensus has the better rain chances east of the Mississippi Wednesday night at 50-70 percent. The 50-60 percent rain chances during the day Wednesday appear to be on the high side given the larger synoptic scale picture.

Beyond Wednesday night, the global models have weak disturbances in the flow aloft passing through the area Thursday and Friday. However, with northwest flow aloft across the area, moisture would be very limited suggesting a very high probability of dry conditions each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR is expected through the period with winds generally out of the W to SSW. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible beyond the end of this TAF cycle (into Saturday afternoon and evening).

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.