textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated-to-scattered showers and storms (20-40% coverage) are expected this afternoon through Friday night, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. Heavy downpours, lightning, and wind gusts up to 40 mph are the primary hazards with any strong storms.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions becoming more likely (50-80%) Sunday through the middle of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A mixture of residual outflow boundaries, a weak cold front, and subtle mid-level troughing is keeping the clouds around this afternoon as noted by visible satellite imagery. Isolated-to- scattered storm development (20-40% coverage) is possible this afternoon where breaks in the clouds will enable modest destabilization in the form of 1500-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE, but with only 10-20 knots of 0-6-km effective bulk shear, these storms will likely (95+%) be sub-severe. Highs are forecasted to be in the 80s areawide with light westerly winds shifting to northwesterly. By the evening, a weak 20-knot LLJ to the south of a confluence boundary is forecasted support additional storms (20-40% coverage) and cloud cover along and south of the I-80 corridor through 3AM before conditions begin to dry out on the backside of a low pressure moving from Missouri into southern Illinois.

On Friday, lingering mid-level troughing over the CWA should keep PoPs around 20-40% in the afternoon south of I-80 as high pressure begins to build in to our northwest. Cloud cover will also stick around as a diurnal cumulus deck develops in northeasterly flow at the surface as cirrus outflow from convection over the Central Plains creeps in. Luckily, the cloud cover and weak CAA will once again keep highs in the 80s, seasonable for July. Heading into the overnight hours, conditions will once again dry out as the high pressure to our northwest shifts eastward into Minnesota and Wisconsin, advecting in some drier air. With the clearing skies for areas north of Highway 34, lows should drop into mid- to-upper 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Saturday through Wednesday will be mostly dry (90% chance) as upper- level ridging builds in across the Northern Plains on the backside of the trough currently over us and the high pressure over Wisconsin drifts southward into our CWA. Large-scale subsidence and weak upper-level winds will also suppress cloud cover, setting up the potential for above normal temperatures next week. Current LREF guidance has highs Sunday through Wednesday in the upper 80s to low 90s (50-80% chance) with dew points in the 70s (50-70% chance). This is corroborated by the CPC 6-10-Day Temperature Outlook having a 40-60% of above normal temperatures. While it is too early to say for certain if heat headlines will be needed, it is growing more likely, especially for areas south of I-80.

In more positive news, the upper-level ridge over us is not expected to last long as a retrograding, cut-off low heights center along the Gulf Coast could weaken the ridge late next week, potentially splitting it in two as noted by the ECMWF ensembles. This could enable troughing again over the Midwest, introducing PoPs and seasonable temperatures back into the forecast by the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to start the period. Model trends have backed off some on fog potential, but still enough of signal to maintain MVFR vsbys at all sites through 12z. Due to recent rain and calm wind, BRL may see some IFR vsbys as well before sunrise. Any fog will lift by 13z, with northeast winds under 10kts and some scattered Cu around 4kft in the afternoon once the convective temp is reached. In addition, a storm system over the Plains to track east southeast today, with scattered showers/storms possible along and south of Hwy 34. With 1-hr thunder probs from the 00z REFS in the 30-40% range, opted to include PROB30 wording for some thunder at BRL.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.