textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures and generally quiet weather is expected through the upcoming weekend.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible late Thursday night into Friday (20-60%). Rainfall amounts will remain light for most areas. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Today: Beautiful weather is expected with high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley region. Highs will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s (north to south) with clear skies and light winds expected (<10 mph).

Tonight - Friday: A southwesterly low-level jet (25+ kts at 850mb) will lead to an increase in moisture and warm air advection aloft. Mid-level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7 C/km will support elevated instability with forecast MUCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg based on the latest HREF. Hi-res models are in agreement on the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along a convergent axis tied to the nose of the aforementioned LLJ. This activity should hold off until mainly after midnight with increasing coverage into early Friday morning. Some of the strongest cells could produce small hail.

Rainfall amounts will remain fairly light with most locations picking up around 0.10" or less. There may be a few narrow corridors of 0.25"+ amounts, where waves of heavier showers/storms move through. The NBM and EC ensemble both have the highest probabilities for 0.10"+ of QPF west and northwest of the Quad Cities (40-60%), with lower values to the south and east. The showers and isolated storms will be slow to move out on Friday, lingering through the early/mid afternoon across the eastern counties in northwest Illinois. In the wake of the departing showers, southerly winds will increase, helping to boost temps into the ~lower 80s south of Highway 30. It will remain a bit cooler across the north with highs in the mid/upper 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Saturday and Sunday...Digging long wave upper trof acrs the Pacific Northwest and ridging amplifying up the GRT LKS will result in warming southwesterlies acrs the MID CONUS and toward the GRT LKS. Saturday will be a full blown warm sector day with breezy southerly winds and increasing thicknesses that support highs in the 80s for much of the area. This may be a day of increased cropland fire danger risk depending on humidity trends. Then eyes turn to the tropical system in the Gulf and the path it may take getting drawn northward inland. Models are generally in agreement on a more southeastward track that keeps measurable rain east of our outlook area.

Monday On...A significant drop in temperatures is expected next week as a seasonably strong cold front moves through the Midwest. Based on latest model guidance, the cold front is forecast to move through Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond Monday, the NBM is showing a large spread in max temps, with the current mean forecast in the 60s across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. However, these values could trend lower with 50s possible for highs across portions of the area. This mid week cool down will be short-lived as the upstream upper trough and associated surface low ejects out toward the Upper Midwest. If the pattern unfolds this way, unsettled weather looks on tap for the middle/end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

High pressure is expected to move southeastward across the area through 00 UTC Friday resulting in light and variable winds across the area. VFR conditions will prevail through the day. A low level jet is forecast to develop after 6 UTC Friday with ceilings between 5 to 12 kft initially. Placed at prob30 group at all TAF sites to account for scattered showers between 8 and 12 UTC with MVFR visibilities. Isolated thunderstorms are possible but confidence is low on the exact timing and placement so they were left out of the TAFs for this issuance.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.