textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a 20-50% chance of rain along and south of Hwy 34 this afternoon through tonight, with rain amounts under a quarter inch. A rumble or two of thunder is possible.

- A warming trend remains forecast through the rest of the week, with near record highs in the upper 60s/70s Friday.

- Active weather through Wednesday night, with light rain amounts throughout.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather Friday afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Early afternoon surface analysis depicts a strong warm front extending from east central KS across Missouri to just south of St. Louis at 19z. North of this front, an extensive area of low clouds were seen on visible satellite, with some occasional sprinkles/light rain falling today. Our 18z DVN sounding showed a nice inversion around 950mb that has kept these clouds around and thus kept our temperatures in the upper 30s/low 40s for much of the day.

Some thinning of clouds may occur this evening/overnight, especially across our north. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will be seen. Forcing from an elevated warm front in the 850-925mb layer to bring scattered showers and perhaps a rumble or two of thunder across northeast MO and west central IL late this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected. Any rain that falls in this area will be very much welcomed with ongoing drought conditions.

Wednesday...a strong shortwave will slide east across the central Plains, with a surface low lifting northeast over MO. Clouds will increase through the day, with the bulk of the precip staying to our south once again. The 12z HREF LPMM 24-hr QPF progs have unfortunately decreased with amounts only in the 0.1"-0.25" range in our far southern tier of counties. There is a 15-30% chance of showers along and south of I-80, but I have some concern that these may be too far north for later shifts to consider. Afternoon highs should be a few degrees warmer than today topping out in the lower 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Wednesday night-Thursday...The aforementioned surface low to lift northeast towards Chicago Wednesday night/early Thursday, bringing some fog/drizzle potential as it moves through. Otherwise, weak ridging to bring decreasing clouds, dry conditions, and a rather pleasant day to the region with afternoon highs reaching the upper 50s/low 60s.

Thursday night-Friday night...a shortwave will eject into the Plains with strong diffluent flow aloft coupled with a 75kt mid-level jet. Ahead of this, a very warm anomalous air mass (indicative of EFI > 0.8 and 850mb temps rising into the 12-14C range) and increasing PWs over 1" will advect into the region with the entire CWA in the warm sector by 18z Friday. The questions become where will storms initiate, will there be enough instability, and does the wave slow down at all thereby decreasing our overall risk? Latest 12z guidance has the NAM/GFS the slower solutions whereas the 12z ECMWF is the fastest with storms ongoing over western IA early Friday moving east towards eastern IA as the day progresses. In any case, this will be the period to watch as SPC has the entire area in a level 2 of 5 risk for severe weather. More details will be made available in the coming days.

In addition, strong southerly winds, plentiful sunshine, and dry antecedent conditions will help boost temps up into the 70s on Friday, which will be approaching record territory. See climate section below for details.

This Weekend-Early Next Week...strong northwest winds behind fropa will start the period with decreasing clouds. A beautiful stretch of weather is forecast this weekend with dry conditions and comfortable humidity. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s is forecast Sat/Sun, with even warmer temperatures back closer to 70 degrees on Monday! The roller coaster temperatures continue.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR/MVFR conditions will gradually improve from north to south this afternoon/early evening at all terminals except BRL. A warm front across MO will keep low clouds and subsequent rain chances along the IA/MO border through the evening before lifting slightly north overnight. IFR conditions will quickly return at BRL, with the bulk of the rain remaining to the south of the terminal. Still enough of a signal to maintain PROB30 wording overnight with this issuance. A midlevel shortwave will track east across the central Plains late in the period, bringing more low clouds and rain chances primarily south of I-80.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 6: KBRL: 73 in 1910 KCID: 73 in 2005 KDBQ: 69 in 2000 KMLI: 73 in 2005

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.