textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Our stretch of cloudy and occasionally rainy/drizzly conditions will end by this evening in the wake of a passing cool front.

- Temperatures will be cooler than average over the next few days, especially Friday night when lows are expected to dip below freezing, before moderating by early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1233 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

We will continue to see cloudy and occasionally rainy/drizzly conditions this afternoon into the evening hours today as a cool front and associated mid-level PVA maxima will gradually translate through the area. Ample low-level moisture per the HRRR/RAP/RRFS soundings up to around 8000 feet AGL should support occasional light drizzle or showers at times.

In the wake of the front, drier air is progged to filter in, but there are some questions on just how quickly the cloud cover will dissipate. We've leaned a bit more pessimistic compared to the NBM which has us gradually clearing out by tonight, but with a stout thermal inversion in place, and plenty of lingering low-level moisture, will keep a cloudy overnight forecast. With northerly flow/cold air advection behind the front, tonight's lows should dip to the middle to upper 30s for most locations.

The dry air looks to finally win out on Friday as an area of high pressure builds into the region. A lobe of enhanced vorticity is progged to move through lower Michigan, but it should remain far enough away that it won't generally any weather impacts for us. If it does shift more westward, we may see a bit more cloud cover than currently expected. It will feel a bit cooler Friday compared to today, with highs warming only to the upper 40s. As the high pressure center settles over the region, light winds and mostly clear skies will result in a chilly night Friday night/Saturday morning with lows dipping to the middle to upper 20s - temperatures we haven't experienced since the morning of October 17th! Bundle up if you're planning to be out and about Friday night!

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

After a chilly Saturday morning, temperatures will gradually warm into early next week, along with dry conditions through mid-week next week. The aforementioned high pressure system will remain anchored over the central CONUS, along with amplified upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West states. This should support a period of quiet, pleasant fall weather. By Monday, high temperatures are forecast to rise to the middle 60s, which would be nearly 10 degrees above average for this time of the year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Largely MVFR to IFR conditions were observed across the area late this morning, as a weak cool front continues to dive southward through the region ahead of an upper-level low. Some occasional drizzle or light rain showers were also observed, with MVFR visibilities. IFR ceilings and visibility reductions appear to be more tied to along and just ahead of the cool front, so thinking the IFR conditions will be more fleeting and MVFR conditions will be more common. Winds are shifting more northerly behind the front and should become breezy for a time, with gusts around 20 knots.

One area of uncertainty tonight is for when the MVFR low clouds will dissipate, given a trend in the REFS ensemble to clear skies out. Thinking that the cloud cover may linger through most/all of tonight, but ceilings are slated to improve to VFR into early Friday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.