textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and less humid to finish out the work week. Heat and humidity to return for the weekend and next week.

- Mainly dry conditions through the end of the month.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Below normal temperatures with low humidity will be seen through tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday through Sunday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of warming temperatures and higher humidity for the weekend.

The late week and weekend will see rising temperatures and humidity levels, especially over the weekend. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s on Saturday making the humidity noticeable.

Sunday dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s should be common. The possibility does exist that pockets of mid 70s dew points could form. When combined with probable highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, heat indices of 95 to 100 would be widespread.

The model consensus continues to advertise rain late Thursday night and mainly Friday morning. The rain chances are 15 to 50 percent for areas south of I-80. The overall consensus is biased toward the wetter GFS and many of its ensemble members.

The other global models are mainly dry with their respective deterministic runs. HOWEVER, there are ensemble members from each global model (much fewer than the GFS) that bring rain into the area. The vacillating of how far north the rain gets with each model cycle appears to be tied to the strength of the high over the western Great Lakes. With building heights aloft in the Plains, the entire system and rain should be further south across Missouri.

Sunday night through Tuesday Assessment...medium (50-70%) confidence on above normal temperatures

Heights aloft will continue building north in the Plains the first part of next week. The question is will the area be in the active zone for organized nocturnal storm complexes. Thermal and flow profiles currently suggest the organized storm complexes would be Minnesota/Wisconsin and into Michigan.

With the summer monsoon season ongoing in the desert southwest there will be numerous disturbances moving around the edge of the heat dome to produce organized storm complexes. The model consensus does have 20-30 percent rain chances with two separate disturbances Sunday night/Monday and again Monday night. I suspect those chances will slowly drop the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Northerly winds of 10 knots or less will be seen through 00z/23. Diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus of a sct-bkn nature is expected anytime after 16z/22 that will dissipate with sunset. After 00z/23 winds will drop to 5 knots or less overnight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.