textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather will continue through the start of the week, with near to below normal temperatures through Monday. From there, temperatures will fluctuate up and down through the week, but largely remain above normal.

- Dry conditions are expected through the first half of the week, with a system passing through the region Wednesday into Thursday. This system will have the potential to bring accumulating snow to the area, which may result in impacts for the Thursday AM commute.

- Long range guidance favors the continuation of above normal temperatures into the start of March, with slight favorability (30- 40% chance) for above normal precipitation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Tonight, we will see the last bout of energy push south and east of the area, as the broad trof over the eastern CONUS slowly starts to wrap up and trek east. This will allow surface high pressure in the north to traverse south towards our area, settling overhead through the day Monday. Although, with the upper level energy moving out and dry air continuing to advect in, we will see skies gradually clear through tonight. Clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop off again, especially in areas that started the night with little/no cloud cover. Temperatures will drop into the single digits in our western half of the forecast area, with those in the east in the low teens. Some in our far west may approach near zero! Thus, another night with unseasonably cold air in place. Winds will decrease through the night, but still largely remain 10-20 mph. Thus, very cold wind chills will result, generally ranging from the teens below zero in our west to single digits below zero in the east. Tomorrow, high pressure overhead will lead to mostly clear skies and lighter winds, with temperatures ranging from the teens in our northwest to near 30 in our south. Otherwise, we are just expecting a cool and calm start to the work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Tuesday, high pressure will push south and east of the area, where we will see increasing southerly flow in the LLVLs. A weak shortwave will pass north of the area on Tuesday, with another stronger wave moving towards the region from the northwest. Southwesterly LLVL flow will result from this pattern, increasing moisture and cloud cover. Clouds should largely remain mid-high, but thick enough mask the sun through much of the day. Temperatures will also increase quite a bit on Tuesday due to stark southerly flow, with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in our north to near 50 in our south. Thus, we are going right back to unseasonably mild temperatures throughout the area. Moisture in the LLVLs still seems to be low, limiting precipitation chances. We will hold onto the <20% PoPs in our northeast for now, but much if not all of the area will remain dry through Tuesday.

Northwest flow remains the main upper level pattern through the remainder of the week. This will result in a more active pattern, with a stronger wave progged to come through the region Wednesday into Thursday, where the overall system is depicted throughout guidance. Although, much uncertainty remains, owing to some differences amongst guidance. Not much has changed since the last forecast package, with the GFS remaining the notably stronger and more amplified solution with the upper wave, resulting in a colder thermal profile and snow as the more dominant precipitation type. This solution also has the greatest potential for accumulating snow, with the possibility of several inches for parts of the area, but is also an outlier. Also, the axis of heaviest snow continues to wobble north/south with each run. Thus, confidence is low in that solution. The ECMWF however, is not as amplified and subsequently would support more of a mix with some snow accumulations possible but generally light. Bottom line, confidence remains low at this distance in the details due to considerable uncertainty with the strength/track/moisture of this system. Ensemble means of GFS/ECMWF/CMC depict the uncertainty with very loose clustering of the surface low track from Wisconsin, to over parts of the area, to even south of the service area. This track will be critical to the temperatures and precipitation chances, along with precipitation type. Stay tuned over the next few days, as we continue to evaluate the potential for some accumulating snow and travel impacts Wednesday night and Thursday.

Going into the weekend, the pattern will shift from a more northwesterly flow regime to zonal flow over the area, with the jet core north of the area. Thus, we will see the potential for some weak waves to eject off of the Rockies, but the pattern has become less active than previously suggested in past forecast cycles. Guidance differs greatly on temperatures, owing to different LLVL flow patterns. Although, CPC continues to favor above normal temperatures through this timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Northwest winds may peak as high as 30-34 kt this afternoon and early evening before gradually easing late tonight into Monday morning. These winds have resulted in patchy blowing snow in north central Iowa and may with MVFR visibility at CID this afternoon. MVFR stratocumulus will continue through this evening as well before dissipating by or shortly after daybreak Monday morning. Scattered non-impactful flurries will be seen this afternoon and possibly this evening.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.