textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- After a dry sunny day today, low clouds and moisture will stream up across the area late tonight and especially Monday making for increasing rain chances into Monday night.

- A pattern change is still on track by mid-week, with much colder and more blustery conditions for Wednesday through the end of the week. Still some longer range signs that a wintry system may occur across the region by weeks end.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Today...Dense fog issues in the southern CWA until mid morning and an Advisory has been hoisted. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure will slide eastward acrs the area today, while a Rex block low rolls into the southwestern plains through tonight. Fcst soundings show shallow but substantial inversions today limiting mixing depth and producing lighter winds today than Saturday. But still enough there to produce similar high temps in the low to mid 50s.

Tonight...925-850 MB layer flow pattern goes south to southwest an taps into the LLVL moisture and low cloud fields seen now from TX to the south half of MO. Thus see these low clouds and fog advecting up acrs the western CWA as the night progresses, and spread acrs most the rest of the CWA into Monday morning. Low confidence if any of the fog will be dense, and may be more 1-4SM ambient type fog. Ongoing southerly winds and the incoming cloud cover may produce non diurnal temp curves overnight, with 12 hour lows occurring before the low deck streams up acrs the area and then slow rise into dawn- Monday morning. Thus coolest in northwest IL in areas last to get in on the stratus.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 225 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Monday and Tuesday...Ridge-undercutting low to roll up acrs the area/mid and upper MS RVR Valley Monday into Monday night, opening up and weakening as it does. Pre-system warm moist conveyor will stream northward ahead of this feature, fueling the low clouds, light fog and eventual rain acrs the area Monday into Monday night. Some models are still advertising a high PWAT feed of 0.70 to 0.90 of an inch up acrs the area by Monday night. This but the ensemble QPF blends have come down from previous runs, more with a widespread 0.05 of and inch in the far northwest, to a swath of 0.20" acrs IL. Forcing looks not as convergent as before, but still leery if we do get those higher PWATs that there could be some swaths of higher amounts than currently expected by Tuesday morning. NBM blend high temps for Mon in the mid 50s may be optimistic is we get prevailing low clouds and light rain. First part of Tuesday a lull period after the rain exits, with lingering mild airmass in place. But then a digging short wave in the northern stream will look to shunt a strong cold front through the region by Tuesday evening. There may be some light rain or sprinkles getting wrung out along the FROPA and isallobaric surge, but that process may get swept off to the east before temps crash enough to produce a precip change over to a wintry mix. Then a blustery cold air advection(CAA) night in store with dropping temps into the 30s and 20s by Wed morning.

Wednesday through Saturday...Colder and blustery Wednesday with wrap around flurries possible in the north, highs only in the 30s to low 40s. A cold Wed night well down in the 20s or even upper teens, leading to highs in the 30s for Thanksgiving under robust northwesterly steering flow. The Cold will then look to last into Friday. Latest ensemble lower level baroclinicity tracks and mid to upper jet patterns align west-northwest to east-southeast right acrs the area. Several models and the ensemble blend shunt a clipper type system down along this storm track and spreads precip acrs the area late Friday and especially Friday night. Still early but there are signs of snow amounts worthy of headlines or wintry mix mess to start off the weekend with.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue this afternoon as high pressure moves through the area. However, low-level moisture will increase this evening into Monday morning from south to north, leading to lowering ceilings and a period of fog. Most models suggest IFR conditions tonight, while others are going more aggressive to LIFR. Confidence isn't quite high enough at this time to go LIFR, but if this signal persists, we may need to introduce LIFR visibility and ceilings. Southerly winds will remain with us through the day Monday, generally around 5 to 10 knots.

Looking ahead after 18z Monday, chances of generally light rain showers will increase, lasting into Monday night.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.