textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) Risk for severe storms has shifted to south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line with a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) north. All modes of severe weather are possible.

- Cooler temperatures are forecast across the area Tuesday through Friday with slightly warmer temperatures next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Convection continues to develop across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri early this morning associated with a disturbance and 300 MB jet max spreading into the region. The HRRR and NamNest continue to show this convection moving across the area from west to east between 10 and 16 UTC with the potential for strong to severe storms moving across the area along/south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. There is the potential for isolated damaging wind gusts in the 12 to 16 UTC timeframe, or from 7 AM to 11 AM. Rainfall amounts of a quarter to half an inch are possible this morning with isolated amounts up to 1 inch. A brief window of quiet weather is then expected into the early afternoon. This morning convection is expected to impact the convective potential across the area this afternoon into the evening hours. Outside of any precipitation, expect cloudy skies with a gusty winds up to 25 MPH through the afternoon.

Models continue to show a 500 MB trough lifting northeast from the Plains this morning into the Upper Midwest by tonight. The surface low is expected to follow a more southerly path from previous forecasts across Iowa. This will help to shift the better moisture and instability slightly to the southeast across the area, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River and south of Interstate 80. Deep layer shear is expected to be strong through the day (60+ knots) and surface based CAPE of 1000 to as much as 2000 J/KG within the warm sector. This will be sufficient for severe storms. Model soundings show large CAPE profiles with damaging wind gusts, large hail, and curved hodographs favoring tornadoes. If rain lingers longer across northwest Illinois into the afternoon, it may shift the severe weather threat farther to the east today. The Storm Prediction Center has shifted the threat for severe weather southward for today. The Enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) Risk for severe storms has shifted to south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line with a Slight (Level 2 out of 5) north. All modes of severe weather are possible.

A cold front is forecast to quickly move across the area late this afternoon into the evening, quickly bringing precipitation chances to an end. Winds will turn to the west behind the front with gusts up to 25 MPH possible, slowly diminishing overnight. Low temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 40s with lower 40s possible northwest of Cedar Rapids.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

In the wake of Mondays storm system, a broad trough will be carved across the eastern US with northwesterly flow resulting by midweek and continuing into the weekend. This will result in cooler temperatures through the week with a slight warming trend. There are numerous disturbances in this flow that will bring periods of clouds and potential for showers and isolated storms to the area, with timing of individual waves difficult to narrow down at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A squall line with trailing stratiform rain is forecast to move across eastern Iowa TAF sites this morning between 12 and 17 UTC from west to east across the area. MVFR to periods of IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible at all TAF sites in rain and possible thunderstorms this morning with the IFR conditions possible in the strongest showers and storms. Another round of storms with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities is possible this afternoon into the early evening at all TAF sites but confidence is lower on the exact timing and placement of these storms. Winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots through the day with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will turn from southeasterly this morning to southerly by early afternoon and then to the west after 00 UTC Tuesday as a cold front moves across the area. MVFR ceilings will linger behind the front through the remainder of the TAF period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.