textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures this week will warm to above normal for late October. Dry conditions are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Gusty southwest winds, due to mixing of stronger winds aloft and a strengthened surface pressure gradient, will diminish with sunset. Light winds, dry air and clear skies will then provide an excellent radiational cooling setup tonight. As a result, I have leaned toward the 10th percentile of NBM for lows with generally upper 30s and lower 40s. Can't rule out some very patchy frost in those poor drainage and low lying spots.

Monday will be simply gorgeous as surface high pressure remains in control, with the core of the high extending from the Great Lakes through the Ohio Valley. This will lead to more abundant sunshine, along with light south/southeast winds around 10 mph and slightly warmer highs from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

More great fall weather is in store for the rest of the week! Upper level ridging will remain over the central U.S. with some amplification mid to late week leading to above normal temperatures and dry conditions. As the heights aloft increase and 1000-500 hPa thickness expands, expect temperatures to gain a few degrees each day. Friday and Saturday look to be the warmest days with widespread mid/upper 70s and the potential for some areas to hit 80 degrees, as h85 temperature anomalies peak at +4 to +6C.

Dry conditions are expected in conjunction with this warming trend, which brings some concern for fire weather potential. However, there are two factors at play that should help limit the potential: a gradual increase in low-level moisture and a broad pressure gradient inducing weak surface winds. As such, while the threat appears low at this time, this remains an area to watch as we progress through the week.

Heading through next weekend, a pattern change appears possible as a midlevel trough plows into the ridge. This may be our next chance for measurable precipitation, though a sizable amount of dry air to overcome along with timing/strength/track differences with the ejecting trough keeps confidence low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Southerly winds gusting 20-28kts will decrease toward sunset remaining under 10kts the rest of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.