textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly (but still not far from normals) days will continue through Tuesday with cold nights, especially Monday night, depending on clouds, when a freeze is possible.

- There are occasional chances for light rain and snow through Tuesday night (20-50%).

- More significant rainfall and higher coverage still possible by late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tonight...Short wave seen on water vapor imagery acrs eastern ND/northwest MN will clipper it's way down along and north of the DVN CWA tonight. Moisture availability is rather scarce but there appears to be enough along with the incoming lift to produce a few sctrd showers moving down acrs the northeast third of the DVN CWA this evening and moving mainly out of the local area again by 1 AM or so. Enough low to mid level instability and lapse rates to possibly produce isolated thunder and have added that to the grids mainly for northeastern IA. QPF amounts will be light generally under a tenth of an inch. Low temps generally in the low to mid 30s by Monday morning.

Monday...Seasonably strong high pressure builds down acrs the upper MS RVR Valley, while LLVL frontal genesis takes off acrs the central plains in view of some digging short waves in that region. Elevated F-gen forcing and isentropic lift will look to induce banded precip zones from the MO RVR Valley down toward the STL area Monday night. Again more dry air to saturate and overcome, but at least light precip may break out in the far southwestern CWA by late Monday and especially Monday night. Thermal profiles suggest initial rain, then dynamically cooling to mainly all snow as the night progresses and into early Tue morning. This type of scenario could lead to a very narrow swath of accumulating snow of several inches as long as it occurs at night. The concentrated precip band currently looks like it may occur somewhere from the Omaha to Kirksville Mo areas and headline-able snow amounts may fall somewhere along that path. In our area of concern, the far northeast MO counties may get up to an inch on elevated and grassy surfaces. Will have to watch further model runs to finer tune where the higher bands of snow may fall. Back to temps, cool Monday highs in the 40s to low 50s. As for the Monday night freeze, clouds and maybe light precip may keep the more susceptible areas of the south a bit warmer and not bottom out with lows hanging around 30 or low 30s. But partial clouds and dry sfc DPTs may allow areas north of I-80 to dip into the mid or even lower 20s by Tue morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Tuesday...Mid CONUS flow flattens out into near zonal orientation and the neighboring sfc high pulls away off to the east enough to allow for more robust low to mid level warm air advection to take place. This will allow for areas of WAA precip to form more and spread up acrs more of the local area later Tue and into Tue night. Fcst soundings are cold enough aloft for mainly snow even during the day, with a rain-snow mix at times by late day and into Tue night with warming aloft continuing to try and battle it's way northward. Snow will have trouble accumulating during the day Tue, but may do some wet dusting to light accums Tue evening. Tuesday highs held well down in the 40s with clouds and precip, with Tue night lows not much cooler than Tue afternoon values in the upper 30s to around 40.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued warming and with better moisture return off the western Gulf as this mid to late week period progresses. If precip moves out, Wed could be mild as warm sector south winds increase and help boost high temps into the mid to upper 60s. Ensemble upper jet patterns lean toward upper troffiness developing acrs the northern and central plains, while a LLVL boundary organizes and pushes acrs the upper Midwest acting as a precip focal point later Wed into Thu. Then signs of this feature eventually laying out along west-to-east tightening LLVL baroclinicity and flattened westerly steering flow into Fri and even Saturday. This boundary will continue to be a convergent focus for southerly warm moist conveyor to impinge upon and over for more robust precipitation events for the late week timeframe, but where this front lays out is still uncertain with several of the latest run ensemble members more robust with northerly ridging shunting the boundary further to the south of the DVN CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A dry frontal passage will bring northwest winds of 12 to 25 kts the next few hours before dropping down to around 10-12 kts for the early morning hours today. Increasing mid clouds is expected today, but otherwise VFR weather with winds gusting a bit during the daytime hours, then becoming northerly tonight, with clouds thickening up ahead of a snow event, that appears to be falling southwest of all terminals into Tuesday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.