textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect today with west to northwest winds gusting between 45 to 55 mph.

- Thanksgiving forecast looks to be a quiet and cool day, with temperatures in the 30s and breezy conditions.

- Wintry weather is likely as we head into the weekend, as a storm system passes through the Midwest. Uncertainty remains on the details, but confidence is increasing for a widespread snow event.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today: The forecast remains on track for a very windy day with west to northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph into this afternoon within in a tight pressure gradient on the backside of a strong low over the Great Lakes. Some of the highest gusts so far have been Cedar Rapids (61 mph), Moline (56 mph), Iowa City (54 mph), and Davenport (51 mph). Thinking the 60+ mph gust at Cedar Rapids was brief/isolated so no plans to upgrade to a High Wind Warning for now. Therefore, the Wind Advisory remains in effect, with roughly the western half of counties set to expire at 3 PM and the eastern half at 6 PM. Otherwise, it will be a cold, raw day with highs in the 30s and wind chills in the teens and 20s. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and the wind will gradually decrease to 15 - 25 mph late.

Thanksgiving Day: Breezy and chilly with highs in the 30s. Early morning wind chills in the single digits and teens will improve to the teens and 20s for the afternoon. Dry conditions are expected with no impacts to travel anticipated. High pressure building in from the west along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to drop into the teens for overnight lows.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday: Quiet and cold conditions are expected during the day with a ridge of high pressure overhead.

Friday Night - Saturday Night:

Attention turns to the potential for widespread accumulating snow across the outlook area as a surface low tracks from the Southern Plains to the Lower Great Lakes, pulling ample Gulf moisture northward into the region with PWATs reaching 0.50-0.60"+. An upper jet streak is forecast to dive southeastward across the Intermountain West on the western periphery of a positively tilted mid-level trough. As the jet streak rounds the base of the trough axis, the trough should begin to take on a neutral to slightly negative tilt. This evolution may support a prolonged period (18-24 hrs) of accumulating snow as models are showing an inverted surface trough axis pivoting over eastern Iowa/NW Illinois and points to the ENE. The bulk of the steady precipitation looks to be near and downstream of the surface low in a zone of persistent isentropic lift, upper jet divergence and PVA. Since it's an open wave aloft, models are not developing much of a deformation zone NW of the surface low, although this could change if the system were to strengthen further.

Latest ensemble guidance has continued to increase snowfall probabilities for portions of the area. The NBM 24 hr probabilities for 4" or more range from near 30% across the southern counties to 50-70% along I-80 and 80%+ north of Highway 30. The EC ensemble is a little further south on the low track and is wetter with more QPF than the GFS/CMC ensembles. The more southern track would be a slightly colder outcome with high temperatures likely below the current NBM which has mid/upper 30s I-80 and south. If the southern track verifies, any rain/snow mix would be confined to the southern counties too, well south of I-80. Still plenty of uncertainty and details to sort out with this system 60-72+ hours away.

In terms of timing, models are in good agreement on steady snow starting late Friday night and continuing through the day Saturday into Saturday night. With temperatures in the 20s Friday night the snow will quickly begin to accumulate on untreated surfaces, leading to slippery conditions. Winter weather headlines will likely be needed, possibly within the next 24 hours or so to start messaging the post-Thanksgiving travel impacts.

Sunday On: Well below normal temperatures are expected into early next week with the widespread fresh snowpack across the region. NBM highs are in the teens and 20s with lows in the single digits and teens.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region will lead to strong west to northwest winds across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through today with gusts between 35 to 45 kts. Wrap around low clouds will result in MVFR this morning, before a return to VFR from south to north through the afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease through tonight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ015-024>026- 034-035. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002-007- 009-016>018. MO...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for MOZ009-010.