textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire conditions could be seen this afternoon/evening across Iowa and extreme western Illinois. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas along and west of the Mississippi River.

- A significant warm-up into early next week will result in temperatures well above normal.

- An active pattern remains forecast in the week ahead, with both showers/storms possible, as well as cold rain or mixed snow at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Initially clear skies today have now seen areas of mid and high clouds spread over the area. While not greatly changing the forecast, this is combining with winds generally not reaching the levels earlier forecast today to keep fire weather variables like GFDI below critical levels through early afternoon. The humidity has fallen to levels below 25% in western areas, and this is enough to keep our message consistent from earlier forecasts. No change is expected to the ongoing Red Flag Warning timing and placement. Please see fire weather section for more details.

Tonight will be far milder than last night's "winter" night where many fell to the mid teens. Tonight, lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s are expected, leading us into a mild Sunday in the mid to upper 60s. Increasing dew points Sunday should keep our fire weather threat a bit lower on a broad scale, but still worthy of mentioning an elevated threat in our products.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

There remains a consistent signal for well above normal temperatures, along with increased dew point levels in the Monday and Tuesday period. This warm and moisture will also bring the threat for showers and storms, mainly in our north Monday night and more area-wide Tuesday. Coverage in both periods should be scattered in nature, as there's not a strong signal for convergence aloft, in a broad warm advection pattern. However, by Tuesday afternoon and evening, a passing cold front is expected to increase coverage of showers/storms, especially in Illinois. This all said, there is a wide distribution on frontal timing Tuesday, and this should not bring much of a significant rainfall amount to our area, with amounts likely 0.25 or less.

Looking at Monday night, if storms can form this far south in the WAA pattern aloft, hail could be a threat with any stronger storm. This is more pattern recognition vs keying off of exact placement of any boundary. In the end, a few storms on the nose of the LLJ Monday night offer up a threat well addressed by SPC's Day 3 outlook.

Much cooler air will settle back into the area Tuesday night through Thursday, with highs in the 40s to low 50s and lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Some light over-running precipitation is possible in the WSW flow aloft in this period with is most likely a cold rain, but may mix with some snow at times at night. This light precipitation does not look impactful.

The upper flow continues to look active towards late week, with the boundary lifting north towards the area again, and with that, milder temperatures into the mid 50s to mid 60s returns with lows in the 40s. Rainfall chances of 40-60% are already showing in the NBM for this WAA pattern, however, deterministic models continue to show a wide position of QPF and frontal boundaries in this outer period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Dry and breezy conditions can be expected through tomorrow with prevailing VFR. Southerly winds will decrease into the 10-15 kt range for the overnight before increasing again on Sunday with gusts near 25 kts at times.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Passing opaque clouds are combining with winds generally not reaching the levels earlier forecast today to keep fire weather variables like GFDI below critical levels through early afternoon. The humidity has fallen to levels below 25% in western areas, and this is enough to keep our message consistent from earlier forecasts. No change is expected to the ongoing Red Flag Warning timing and placement. Though more marginal than a classic RFW day, the dry antecedent conditions, plentiful dry fuels/grasses leave us in our most vulnerable state of the year right now, and the potential for a fire to get out of hand this afternoon and evening remains possible.

Sunday, winds will be a similar to today, the 15 to 25 mph range, and temperatures will be milder, in the 60s. However, increasing dew point values in this southerly flow are expected to keep RH values from dropping much below 38% in the afternoon, which is much higher than this afternoon's RH in the 20-30% range. GFDI values in the very high range are patchy in nature over our area during the afternoon, indicating that this should not be a headlined fire weather day, but rather more typical messaging can be used for that threat.

Monday, a more widespread GFDI forecast of "very high" is expected as highs reach the 80s with breezy southwest winds. It's a bit early, but this could be a period we need to watch for another fire weather headline/ RFW.

Tuesday appears windy and could offer a threat as well, but with rainfall possible, and cold front moving through, there is far less confidence in that period representing a fire weather day of concern.

CLIMATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record highs for March 30th....

Burlington.........84 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......82 in 1943 Dubuque............81 in 1943 Moline.............82 in 1986 and previous years

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-015- 024-025-034. MO...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.