textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A general warming trend still on track through Thursday, then a brief cool down on Friday behind a front. Then another warming trend begins over the weekend.

- There is a chance of showers and storms Thursday afternoon into the evening. Rainfall amounts look moderate at best south.

- A Marginal (Level 1 out of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms remains south of a Fairfield to Moline to Sterling Rock Falls line Thursday afternoon into the evening. There is still some uncertainty in the timing, location, and availible moisture.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Tonight...Amplified upper ridge acrs the west will flatten with robust upper jet energy through Thursday as it tries to press acrs our region. In the process we will still have enough lingering northwest steering flow acrs the region with subtle vort energy embedded to keep rounds of cirrus and higher based AC streaming acrs the area through at least mid week. Such as tonight, as well as a large area of sfc ridging along and east of the area continuing to pull eastward enough to allow for increasing southeasterly to southerly return flow to possibly make for non-diurnal temp trends tonight into Wed morning, as well as support 50% NBM values as opposed to have to undercut lows again with the dry sfc DPTs in place.

Wednesday...Despite more expected cirrus sheild-filtering insolation streaming acrs the region, mixing into the base of a building inversion(looking at fcst soundings) produces plenty of low to mid 70s acrs the CWA for Wed highs, with upper 70s or even an 80 possible southwest.

Wednesday night...Ensembles lay out a tightening LLVL baroclinicity ribbon acrs the northern plains into the western GRT LKS as the steering flow acrs these areas flattens and becomes mid/upper jet occupied. Sfc reflection wave and front also look to take shape acrs these areas, with boundary looking to possibly become quasi- stationary acrs NE and IA until the sfc low can pass along it allowing it to advance/progress southward as a cold front and precip focal point sometime Thu into Thu evening. In the meantime for Wed night, a few solutions are suggesting a convergent 30-40 KT southwesterly LLJ with adequate THTA-E and MUCAPEs aloft to possible produce isolated to a small cluster of elevated showers and storms. A few solutions suggest west central into central IL may be the location for the activity, but may still be a bit too uncertain for mentionable POPs at this time, but will go with 20% slight CHC toward central IL for now Wed evening. Mild overnight lows may range from the upper 40s north, to upper 50s south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Thursday...Still some challenges to figure out in frontal timing and eventual southward push after a sfc wave progresses by and eastward. Still some differences in the ensembles and latest deterministics, but there may be a trend of a more southward push/speed up of the front sweeping south of the DVN CWA by 00z Friday. If this occurs, besides some post-frontal showers and maybe a few storms, the prime along and pre-frontal instability axis and lower level moisture pooling may occur just south and southeast of the DVN CWA, from south of the Kansas City area, acrs central IL and up into northeast IN where the strongest convection may fire Thu evening. Plenty of effective shear from pre-frontal fields to post-frontal zones especially with impressive right entrance fields off mid and upper jet streaks for deep lift. Like previous shifts have been saying, it's all where the shear will interact with the prime CAPE fields and northern instability gradient/deep convective index which again on most of the latest ensembles looks to lay out just to the south and southeast of the DVN CWA. If storms do manage to fire in the southern and southeastern CWA, according to the latest vertical profiles/thermo and kinematic fields suggest large hail the initial threat, evolving into a wind threat as they exit the local area.

High temps a real challenge for Thursday with big bust potential depending on frontal timing and progression. For now will advertise upper 60s acrs the far north, to the mid and upper 80s far south. What happens in the middle will be the trick. It currently still appears there will be an elevated fire danger along and south of I- 80 in the warm sector before the sctrd precip areas develop in the afternoon.

Friday still appearing to be a blustery post-frontal day with temperatures almost 30 degrees cooler than what may occur Thursday.

The re-bounding western upper high and strengthening thermal ridge to our southwest will build northeastward again starting another warming trend across the area Saturday and especially into the end of the longer range. There remains uncertainty in the forecast beyond Sunday as models continue to disagree on the timing of an upper level trough moving into the western US. But some ridge-riding energy is still targeting later Monday night into Tuesday with a chance for some showers and thunderstorms late in the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A VFR TAF cycle through Wednesday with just streams of mid and high level clouds acrs the area. As for sfc winds, went with a happy medium south to southeasterly direction at 7-10 KTs for the period to make for simple TAF fcsts for now, but the speeds may drop off to 4-6 KTs late tonight before gathering steam again by mid Wed morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.