textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures, low humidity, dead fuels and gusty winds will result in very high fire danger through Wednesday. Avoid any outdoor burning!

- Anomalously warm temperatures will be seen through at least Wednesday.

- Isolated to scattered (20-50%) showers tonight with a low chance (20%) of thunderstorms.

- More precipitation chances Thursday/Friday (30-70%) with rain (and a chance of a few storms Thursday PM/eve?) gradually mixing with or changing to light snow late Thursday night into Friday.

- Temperatures cool closer to seasonal normals by the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Surface front in/near our northern service area will become nearly stationary today, as a bout of upper ridging and increasing heights aloft traverse the region. Nearly a coupled upper jet structure between the right entrance region of a Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic jet and a more robust jet and left exit region protruding from the southern Rockies into the Midwest will foster high cloudiness. In addition, strengthening mid level warm advection will bring some mid cloudiness and potential for virga and a few sprinkles later this afternoon and early evening. Temperatures because of the increased cloud cover will likely be a bit cooler from those record highs of yesterday, albeit still well above average from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. If somehow more solar insolation occurs then some areas could reach the upper 60s. Winds will be breezy with boundary layer mixing into 20-30 kt wind supporting gusts 25-35 mph by this afternoon from the SE. The warm, dry and breezy conditions combined with dead fuels will foster another day of very high fire danger. Outdoor burning should continue to be avoided!

Tonight, there will be a several hour period this evening where winds could ramp up further with gusts 40+ mph and potentially near advisory, particularly near and east of the Mississippi River as BL remains mixed to potentially tap into strengthening winds near 40 kt with a ramping nocturnal LLJ. Thus, a breezy to windy night will foster very mild lows from the mid 40s to lower 50s and these will likely occur very late, as a cool front moves through the region attendant to a system passing across the Upper Midwest. Isentropic ascent and convergence with the LLJ will bring elevated scattered showers by mid evening exiting by early overnight. A couple of storms can't be ruled out with advection of weak instability on the nose of the LLJ.

Wednesday, the dry slot will bring decreasing clouds allowing for deeper mixing and continued anomalously warm temperatures with highs topping out mostly in the 60s. Good momentum transfer aided by nearly aligned low to mid level wind fields mixing stronger winds aloft will lead to gusty westerly winds 25-35 mph, gradually tapering off in the afternoon/early evening as a weak cool front settles into the region. Once again the ingredients (warm temps, dead fuels, low RH and gusty winds) will be in place for very high fire danger.

Wednesday night should be mainly dry with clouds eventually on the increase as a shortwave ejects from the Rockies and induces cyclogenesis across portions of the Central Plains. Lows will be cooler, particularly north of I-80 on the cool side of the boundary with lows in the 30s while across the south likely staying in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

General consensus exists in the deterministic and ensemble guidance of the Plains shortwave strengthening into a closed low across portions of the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes by Friday morning before the system occludes. The attendant surface cyclone is expected to track across the region Thursday night. There still remains uncertainty with the exact track of the low, and this will be critical in determining how far north/west the better low level moisture and instability make it factoring in not only our prospects for storms but also whether any severe weather threat can materialize late Thursday afternoon through evening. Ensemble and Machine learning guidance and SPC SWODY3 convective outlook currently favor areas just to our south/east from central Illinois and far east central Missouri into the Ohio Valley as having the best overlap of ingredients and subsequent severe weather potential. This could change and dprog/dt shows a bit of a northward trend on track, so we'll be monitoring this potential closely over the next couple of days.

Cold advection behind the low and attendant cold front Thursday night into Friday will foster the potential for rain to mix with or change to light snow with any wrap-around or deformation zone brushing of the area. Marginal temps and warm ground will work to negate any accums, thus minimal if any impacts look to come from any flakes.

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable conditons are expected for the weekend into early next week with predominantly northwest flow aloft.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. IFR to lower MVFR stratus is possible Tuesday evening at DBQ, BRL and MLI potentially being advected into the area on strengthening low level SE flow. Probabilities for CIGs <3kft agl however, remain low for the TAFs and appear to be greatest (60-80%) per SREF east of the TAF sites and mainly across central/northern IL. Due to the low confidence I left out mention, but did hint at the possibility with a mention of SCT MVFR bases this evening. Winds will be the primary concern throughout, as E/SE winds look to turn gusty with gusts 20 to 30+ kt by late Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday evening. LLWS will be possible late in the period as a ramping LLJ of 40-50 kt occurs near 2kft agl from the SW. This could mix down a period of wind gusts 35-40 kt this evening at the river terminals. Attendant to this LLJ and elevated warm/moist advection will be a chance (20-50%) for showers and isolated storms (<20%). Aside from a low lightning risk the elevated and fast movement of any showers should limit impacts at the terminals, and have PROB30 mention for MVFR visibility. Prior to that, can't totally rule out a few sprinkles within the strengthening mid level warm advection later this afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record warm lows for February 17th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.