textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant warm afternoons with dry air in place will continue for many days ahead.

- Drought conditions likely developing in the coming weeks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Water vapor satellite shows a weak shortwave diving south over southern MN. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen not that far away from the forecast area across northern IA, with an outflow boundary dropping just south of the Hwy 20 corridor in central IA. Unfortunately, this activity is running into a lot of dry air and has begun to weaken. Closer to home, mild temperatures were observed with 1am temps in the 60s.

Showers will continue to dissipate through 5am as upper level divergence decreases and they run into drier air across the CWA. Some sprinkles or an isolated shower may still reach the far northwest corners of Buchanan county, but will likely just be virga. High pressure and a dry airmass will remain in place today leading to similar highs compared to yesterday in the upper 80s. Plentiful sunshine, deep mixing up to 700mb, and slightly warmer 850mb temps may boost a few sites (MLI) to our 1st 90 degree day of the season. The last time we hit 90 in the Quad Cities was back on Oct 3rd.

Tonight...a backdoor cool front will arrive overnight, as high pressure moves into the upper Great Lakes. Even drier air will advect into the region with dewpoints quickly dropping into the 40s. This should allow temperatures to drop into the mid 50s northeast to lower 60s southwest as winds shift to the northeast at 5 to 15 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 120 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Continued dry and warm for the rest of May and into the 1st week of June. Rain chances will be minimal to non-existent through the period. WPC 7 day QPF continues to show zero precipitation for the CWA.

A 1024mb surface high drops south over the Great Lakes through Friday, reinforcing our dry air mass overhead. As the previous shift mentioned, this will yield humidity values below 30% for most afternoons in the days ahead. With the higher sun angle for this time of year, this will also increase our daily diurnal temperature ranges with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 50s. At least with dewpoints only in the 40s/50s it will make it feel quite pleasant outside!

The question then becomes when does this Omega block begin to break down? Latest ensembles have this pattern becoming firmly established this weekend and persisting it through at least June 2nd. Then the solutions begin to transition the upper flow to a broad ridge across the CONUS, which is not ideal for any beneficial rain. Drought conditions are likely to develop/expand over the coming weeks. In addition, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day precip outlooks for the Climate Prediction Center have 70-80% combined probabilities of near/below normal precipitation going through the 1st week of June. Needless to say, it will be a while before liquid gold (rain) comes back.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. Ideal flying conditions today as light and variable winds pick up only ever so slightly this afternoon from the northeast, remaining around 5 knots. Some daytime cumulus clouds will also be possible near CID, DBQ, and MLI, with ceilings around 5kft.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.