textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected through Tuesday before the next storm system brings scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50% coverage) to the area on Wednesday.

- Weak disturbance and high pressure to keep temperatures comfortable and precipitation chances low (10-30%) for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Today...The shortwave trough that gave use a cool, rainy Father's Day finally clears the area as subsidence sets in and a high pressure anchors to our north. Besides some lingering low-level clouds and drizzle across west-central Illinois, skies are expected to thin out by this afternoon with highs rebounding to the 70s. Surface winds will be out of the northeast around 5-15 mph before subsiding after sunset, but confluence on the southern flank of the high pressure and a lake breeze brings back scattered clouds and light showers across northwest Illinois and east-central Iowa Monday evening. This is forecasted to hamper radiational cooling despite the light and variable winds with lows only dropping into upper 50s and low 60s.

Tuesday...The high pressure to our north shifts eastward as a trough digs into the Northern Plains, turning our winds back out of the south. Cirrus outflow and mid-level clouds start to roll in from the northwest, and the skies gradually become broken to overcast during the day on Tuesday. This will keep highs in the mid-to-upper 70s, but luckily, dry low levels should restrict precipitation chances during the daytime.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Tuesday Night-Wednesday...As the next shortwave shifts into northern Minnesota, a weak surface low and cold front will develop over Minnesota and propagate southeastward towards our CWA. Dewpoints will climb back into the 60s ahead of this front which will act as the main axis for showers and storms to develop Wednesday. The relatively short period of southerly return flow and a weak LLJ should restrict PWAT values to only 1 to 1.5 inches, so excessive rainfall does not appear likely. Regardless, according to the 22.01z NBM run, there is a low-to- medium chance (30-50%) for much of the CWA to receive measurable rainfall. In terms of severe weather, the threat is currently low, but daytime heating could allow SBCAPE values to exceed 500 J/kg underneath at least 30 knots of sfc-to-500mb bulk shear (50-70% chance) during the afternoon. By late Wednesday evening, PoPs should decrease as the cold front clears the CWA and northerly flow returns in the low levels.

Thursday-Friday...A weak surface trough on the backside of the low pressure now over the Great Lakes may keep some cloud cover and isolated light showers around on Thursday morning, especially along and east of the Mississippi River. By Thursday afternoon, a weak high pressure translate southward into the Northern Plains. The continued northerly flow is forecasted to keep temperatures comfortable in the 70s (70-90% chance). By Thursday evening, a mid-level shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, deepening a low pressure center over northern Texas. The low amplitude of this trough is expected to limit development of this system on Friday, but a mid-level F-gen band, similar to yesterday's set-up, could produce isolated showers south of Interstate 80 Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure continues to anchor over the Great Lakes region on Saturday, keeping conditions quiet. The 21.12z LREF run is hinting at a shortwave ridge building in over the Upper Mississippi River Valley Saturday night into Sunday as the next longwave trough digs into the western CONUS. Surface cyclogenesis along the Front Range of the Rockies is growing increasingly likely (50-70%) overnight Saturday into Sunday. Southerly flow ahead of this developing system and ridging could kick off a warming and moistening trend heading into next week noted by the CPC's 6- 10-Day Temperature Outlook showing a 40-60% chance for above normal temperatures and the 21.12z LREF run having exceedance probabilities of 70-90% for dew points to climb into the 70s on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

A MVFR to IFR stratus cloud deck is moving to the southwest and is currently impacting KMLI and KBRL. Conditions will improve to VFR conditions as this cloud deck clear KMLI in the next couple hours and KBRL around daybreak. Towards the north, areas of fog are developing near KALO (Waterloo, Iowa) and could spread southeastward towards KDBQ and KCID. There is growing confidence (currently 30-50%) that this LIFR fog reaches KDBQ with lower confidence (20-30%) of it reaching KCID. This is why a TEMPO group for fog was added to KDBQ and not KCID, but amendments will be made if conditions deteriorate quicker than expected or confidence increases. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for all sites starting mid-morning through rest of the TAF period with northeasterly flow at around 5-10 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.