textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Persistent showers will remain through much of Thursday, with the potential for heavier rainfall through the morning hours. We will start to see rainfall decrease from northwest- southeast through the afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch remains in effect.

- Pleasant early Fall weather this weekend into early next week, with dry conditions and seasonable temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The prolonged period of wet weather continues through Thursday, as we continue to see bouts of energy push into the region ahead of the wave currently ejecting off of the Rockies. Strong moisture advection into the area will continue through the remainder of tonight into Thursday morning. Thus, we expect persistent showers, some heavy, to continue through at least Thursday morning. A baroclinic zone will generally set up near the Highway 20 corridor through this morning as well, which will be the focal point for heavier precipitation, slowly tracking southeast through the day. Some of the heaviest rainfall will be seen along this boundary, as there will be better chances for more convective structures and embedded thunderstorms. These storms will favor local enhancements in rainfall rates, resulting in quick and efficient accumulation. At this time, areas north of Highway 30 are favored to have the best chances for heavier rainfall through Thursday morning, with light-moderate rainfall south. We will start to see this larger wave weaken through today as it tracks northeast into the Central Plains. Over the next 12 hours, we will start to see the LLJ shift east of the area as well. So, with the decaying wave and the bulk of moisture transport moving out of our area, we will finally see this system and front start to slowly move out of the area later today. By mid-evening, most of the area should be clear of the persistent rainfall. Best chances for precipitation will be in far southeast Iowa and west-central Illinois this evening, with most areas becoming dry by midnight tonight.

With the rounds of rainfall that moved through the area on Wednesday, we generally saw 1-3" of rain, with heaviest amounts roughly along the Interstate 80 corridor. From now through the remainder of Thursday, an additional 1-2" of rainfall can be expected throughout the area, with areas along Highway 20 potentially seeing upwards to an additional 3" due to heavier rainfall. As such, the Flood Watch will continue through Thursday, as we will see the potential for further rises along area rivers, along with the potential for areal flooding. WPC continues to advertise a Slight Risk, level 2/4, for Excessive Rainfall. Thus, there will be a low-end threat for flash flooding, but best chances will be north of Highway 30 this morning. Although, confidence is low at this time.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 148 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Friday Through Sunday...

Dry, pleasant conditions are on the forecast for the weekend. Upper- levels will be mainly zonal with a shortwave trough overnight Saturday connecting to a surface low north of the Great Lakes. This will sweep a weak boundary through our area Sunday morning bringing a shift in the winds from southerly to northerly. Due to low moisture content, we are expecting dry frontal passage with some passing high clouds. Mostly clear skies, with relatively light winds, and low moisture means the weekend should be very nice for any outdoor activities. Highs will sit comfortably in the 60s to 70s. With the northerly winds, we should see lows go from 50s Saturday evening, to 40s Sunday night.

Next Week...

High pressure will set up over the area for the start of the week, which will continue the pleasant weather. Another weak shortwave trough could bring a slight chance for rain along a cold front Wednesday, but probs are very low (<15%) due to lacking moisture return. A wind shift and some passing clouds will be the main sign of a passing system, with dry frontal passage seeming more likely at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Widespread rain and variable low cigs/visibility are found over the area early this morning, as moisture continues to surge northeast along and ahead of a cold front, which will pass through the area today, reaching northern areas this morning, and southeast Iowa this afternoon. Showers and some isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue through the day, and in a scattered nature, this afternoon and early evening, before dry air begins to arrive behind the front. Thus, the variable low IFR/MVFR cigs/vis in rain will give way to a VFR sky by late afternoon northwest to late evening southeast. Winds will be generally under 10 kts, but be southerly ahead of the front this morning, and northerly behind the front.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Many of the area rivers have not fully returned to normal streamflows after the last rainfall event in mid-September. That leaves them primed for additional flooding where the higher rainfall totals end up over the next couple days, especially along the Iowa and Skunk rivers. Several river watches and warnings have been issued where flooding is most likely to occur. There will also likely be rises along the Mississippi River especially south of New Boston. These river forecasts are largely based on rain that hasn't fallen yet, so the forecasts will likely be adjusted once we see how much rain falls and where the highest amounts are across the area leading to a higher confidence in flood category. Please keep an eye on forecast and updates to flood products in the coming days.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Flood Watch through late tonight for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098. IL...Flood Watch through late tonight for ILZ007-009-015-016-024. MO...None.