textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak systems moving through in the Wednesday night through Friday time period will provide chances for light snow or flurries across the northern, northeast and eastern areas.

- A brief warm-up will be seen ahead of the system on Thursday but a more pronounced warm-up to above normal temperatures commences this weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Clouds will continue slowly clear through sunset across the southern parts of the area. A quiet and chilly night is in store as high pressure builds into the upper Midwest.

Wednesday should start out with sun before high level clouds create more of a filtered sun across eastern Iowa. Although temperatures will continue to average below normal, they will be closer to normal across much of the area.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Wednesday night/Thursday Assessment...low to medium (20-30%) confidence on precipitation chances

All models show waa occurring aloft Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture aloft will be transported into the area to produce clouds. The unknown is whether or not low clouds will be present so that precipitation can be generated via a seeder/feeder mechanism. If the current low clouds across the Plains are a clue, then low clouds would be present to generate precipitation. The more probable precipitation type would be light snow or flurries, but, if ice aloft is lost then the probability of freezing drizzle would increase.

The better signal for precipitation looks to be across far northeast Iowa and into Wisconsin. However, ECMWF-AIFS does show some very light QPF overspreading into far northern Illinois after sunrise Thursday.

The southerly flow ahead of the second system will help boost temperatures above normal on Thursday, and, compared to the past few weeks will seem quite warm.

Thursday night/Friday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of seeing precipitation

The second system passes to the north of the area late Thursday night into Friday. However, there is a wing of waa that will side- swipe the area late Thursday night. The EMCWF-AIFS shows this quite nicely by painting northwest Illinois with some low QPF. Based on this we have gone with 20-30 percent pops for areas east of a Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL line.

The passage of the cold front Friday afternoon combined with diurnal heating may be enough to generate some very isolated convective cells. The signal for this is quite weak this far out and if it does occur, areas east of the Mississippi would be favored.

Friday night through Monday night Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a pronounced warm-up

The overall flow pattern across the CONUS will be undergoing a change this weekend and into early next week. The MJO is forecast to begin constructive interference with equatorial Rossby waves across the eastern hemisphere which should favor a warm-up over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. However, the degree of warm-up has uncertainty tied to it due to variability in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

The model consensus is indicating a sustained warm-up with a building thermal ridge across the central CONUS. A building thermal ridge should push the active storm track well north of the area. However, there still appears to be a signal indicating a split flow across the CONUS. Thus while the Friday night through Monday period currently looks dry, further into next week is in question.

Tuesday Assessment...low (10-20%) confidence on precipitation. High (70-80%) confidence on above normal temperatures

With the upper flow pattern in flux over the weekend, the global models vary considerably regarding the sensible weather and potential impacts for Tuesday. The global models generally agree there will be a surface low moving through the Midwest either Tuesday or Wednesday. Given differences in timing and potential track, the model consensus has 20 percent chances for rain across the area.

Where the models do agree is that temperatures will be well above normal for mid-February.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Consistently quiet, cool, VFR weather is expected through Wednesday afternoon, as a broad area of high pressure remains over the upper Midwest. Some passing high clouds can be expected, but many hours of mostly clear skies are forecast through sunset Wednesday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.