textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Besides a few nuisance light shower chances this evening and Friday evening, generally cooler and benign weather through Saturday before storm chances increase again by Sunday.

- The cooler than normal temperature regime still looks to continue for much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Tonight...Looking at water vapor imagery(WV), a few channeled looking short waves were notice embedded in low amplitude northwesterlies acrs SD into western IA ATTM. These waves may combine with late afternoon heating to produce isolated to wdly sctrd high based showers and possibly even a thunderstorm through mid evening from southwest MN down acrs central into eastern IA, and will include low POPs for this potential. Then a bout of short wave upper ridging to bring about clearing and calm conditions late night into Friday morning. Low temps tonight to cool below normal again down in the 50s.

Friday...With a passing bout of ridging, much of the day to be decent with less CU than today(Thu) and warming profiles for highs in the mid 70s to around 80 for much of the area. Then ongoing northwesterly steering flow aloft will usher another clipper-like wave down out of the northern plains and acrs MN/WI(western GRT LKS) through Friday evening. Moisture return remains limited, but appearing to be a little more substantial wave on the ensembles, it should still kick up sctrd showers and some thunderstorms acrs MN into WI late Friday afternoon and into the evening. Some of this activity may get down into at least the north half of the DVN CWA Friday evening, but QPF amounts look light(tenth of an inch or less) and besides maybe some small hail, the storm support is not severe looking.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The weekend will bring our next measurable chance for rain Late Saturday night through Sunday as a shortwave moves through the region. Late Saturday into early Sunday, a shortwave will translate through the central Plains, accompanied by a surface low off the lee of the Rockies. Low level moisture advection will provide a steady stream of moisture as PWATs of 1-2 inches flood northward. Widespread rainfall is expected throughout Sunday, with NBM probabilities showing a 50-70% chance of 24-hour rainfall exceeding 1 inch by Monday morning. In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall, current guidance suggests that there will be some instability with these showers, which would allow for some thunderstorms. At this time, the track of the low and uncertainty in timing make severe potential unclear, but is something to monitor in the coming days.

Past Sunday, ridging behind the shortwave will keep us in northwest flow as high pressure builds into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will continue the trend of cool temperatures for mid-June as it lingers in place for a day or two until midweek. By midweek, guidance suggests that another system may be possible, though a wide range of solutions, including some that keep high pressure rooted over us, keep the most likely scenarios unclear at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Mainly a VFR TAF cycle through midday Friday. After the ambient cumulus has lifted to VFR heights, the only exception may be if isolated to widely sctrd showers and even a thunderstorm get into the VCNTY of CID late this afternoon and through mid evening as an upper level short wave drops down acrs the area. Otherwise, the sfc pressure gradient trends support northwest winds this afternoon of 10-15 KTs then trending light and variable by sunset as sfc ridging builds down out of the northwestern high plains.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.