textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is forecast to linger across the area through 6 AM before quickly coming to an end.

- An active weather pattern is forecast to continue through the upcoming week with several disturbances passing near the area bringing potential chances for precipitation.

- Another surge of arctic air will settle into the Midwest for the end of next week and weekend following the passage of the Thursday clipper system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

At 2 AM, the main surface low has shifted to our southeast with winds becoming more northerly across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois allowing precipitation to transition to widespread snow especially south of Interstate 80 after a brief mixing with sleet up to Interstate 80 overnight. Precipitation is forecast to slowly move to the east this morning and exit the area potential by 6 AM. For this reason, will leave the Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM.

Gusty north winds are forecast to continue into early this afternoon with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. The snow appeared to be wetter overnight which may limit the low level drifting that will occur with these wind speeds. It will be cold today with temperatures in the upper teens from Independence to Dubuque to upper 20s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.

Deep northwest flow aloft continues into the upcoming work week and another weak shortwave is forecast to move across the area Sunday night into Monday morning this will mainly bring an increase in cloud cover across the area overnight. CAMs do show diminishing snow spreading into parts of east central Iowa after 9 UTC (3 AM) Monday and added light snow and flurries west of a Cedar Rapids to Manchester Iowa line. Accumulation is not expected. It will be cold Monday morning with low temperatures ranging from near 0 north of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport line to the upper single digits above zero in far southeast Iowa, far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Wind chill values on Monday morning will be as cold as -10 north of Highway 30 or north of Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line.

High presssure is forecast to quickly build into the area on Monday and bring quiet weather to the area. However skies will remain cloudy through the day. High temperatures on Monday will be in the mid to upper 20s once again.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday night/Tuesday Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a clipper system side-swiping parts of the area.

The next clipper system races through the Midwest and Great Lakes Monday night and Tuesday morning. The better forcing and moisture is well north of the area. Thus right now it appears that areas east of a Manchester, IA to Princeton, IL line will get a period of flurries or at worst several hours of light snow. The model consensus currently has 20-25% pops for the area. If the light snow scenario would occur, accumulations would be a dusting at worst.

Tuesday night through Thursday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of two additional systems. Low (20-30%) confidence regarding precipitation type for the first system.

Another clipper system moves through the Midwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Like the previous system the models project the track to be north of the area. However, the track is further south than the previous system.

Such a track would put the area initially on the warm side of the system until the low passes. Being on the warm side of the system raises questions regarding precipitation type. Thermal profiles of the atmosphere suggest the precipitation may initially develop as rain or possibly a rain/snow mix. If the precipitation arrives shortly after sunset (suggested by all models), then rain would be the primary precipitation type until the atmosphere cools and allows a rain/snow mix to develop later in the evening and much of the overnight hours.

Once the low passes, cold advection will quickly change any mix over to all snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but accumulations right now look to be a dusting at best. The cold advection looks impressive with winds of 15-25 mph expected and potential gusts of 30-35 mph. The diurnal recovery of temperatures on Wednesday will be minimal from the overnight lows.

Following almost immediately on the heels of the second clipper system will be a hybrid clipper/colorado low system that arrives Wednesday night into Thursday. The more southern track of this system means there is a high (>80%) probability of seeing another round of accumulating snow.

Given the proximity of this system with the previous clipper system, there will not be much moisture in place ahead of the system. Thus the moisture associated with the system will be what is available for precipitation production.

While there are timing differences, there is loose agreement that the precipitation will be arriving after sunset. Thus with the atmosphere cooling, the precipitation type will be in the form of snow.

While not certain, this snow will have a medium to high (60-80%) probability of being the dry, fluffy type. Thus the rain/snow ratio will be minimally in the 12-15 to 1 range. Given the limited system moisture, snowfall amounts generally look to be light.

Thursday night through Saturday Assessment...A certainty (>98%) of another round of arctic air for the Midwest

Lingering light snow/flurries will end Thursday evening as the system departs the area. Behind the system, another surge of arctic air will move into the Midwest keeping temperatures well below normal for the end of the week and next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

KBRL sits on the southern end of precipitation moving eastward across eastern Iowa TAf sites early this morning. Periods of -FZRA or FZDZ are possible there through 8 UTC this morning before rain or FZRA begins to mix with snow. Conditions are VFR there but expect MVFR Conditions to occur through 12 UTC there before a gradual improvement takes place this morning. At the other TAF sites, MVFR ceilings and IFR to LIFR visibility are possible at KDBQ, KCID, and KMLI. A period of a mix of SN and PL are possible at KMLI through 7 UTC. Conditions will gradually improve from 12 to 18 UTC on Sunday with widespread VFR conditions. Norther winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are possible through 18 UTC before winds begin to diminish.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ040-051>054-066. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ041-042-063>065-067-068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for ILZ007-009. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ILZ001-002-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...None.