textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Active weather is expected through Saturday with widespread rain today and then a chance for occasional light snow on Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible late this afternoon into the evening hours, with a low chance of a strong to severe storm.

- Some accumulating snow is possible late Friday night through Saturday, with a 20-60% chance of one inch of accumulation over most of the area, highest probabilities well northeast of the Quad Cities.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

SPC mesoanalysis had a ~994mb low over northeast Kansas with elevated warm air advection to the northeast leading to widespread rain up into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The surface low will continue to track to the northeast through this afternoon into tonight, through south-central to northeast Iowa. This places the outlook area in the warm sector where max temps should reach the mid/upper 50s with similar dewpoints expected which is very unusual for early January. Max temps will be about 20-30 degrees above normal! It will be a little cooler in the far NW with highs in the mid 40s. Most of the area should receive between 0.40 - 0.80" of rainfall with higher amounts possible favored north and northwest of the Quad Cities.

The anomalously high low-level moisture will result in some instability near and slightly downstream of the surface low this afternoon into the evening (the HREF has SBCAPE of a few hundred J/kg); it's a high shear - low CAPE environment with 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kts. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible within the warm sector later this afternoon through the evening, lifting SW to NE through the outlook area. SPC has pulled the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) up into the southeast counties; however, can't rule out a strong storm further to the northwest as well. The primary threats are strong wind gusts and a brief/isolated tornado. Confidence remains low on the coverage of storms and the expectation is for the activity to remain isolated. The potential window for a few strong storms to move through the area is between 3 PM to 8 PM. Once the low passes to the northeast, winds will turn from the S/SE to the W/NW and remain gusty through the night between 20-30 kts. Lows tonight will only be in the 30s and 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

There will be a break between the two systems Friday and Friday evening as mid-level ridging develops over the central Plains. Friday actually looks to have the potential for a pleasant day, with highs warming to the lower to middle 40s, and the latest HREF does suggest some breaks in the cloud cover for some sunshine (we'll see as the models have been struggling with cloud cover lately).

Then, the second system moves in for late Friday night through Saturday, which will be more associated with the primary upper-level trough and a potent mid-level PVA vort max. This system will be colder than the first one thanks to enhanced cold air advection and northerly flow, which will help precipitation transition from a rain/snow mix initially to all snow after sunrise Saturday morning. There still remains a lot of spread in the ensembles on how much snow will fall. Signals from both the NBM and probabilistic WSSI suggest this system to have a lower impact level locally, with the NBM probabilities of one inch of snow or more around 20 to 60%, highest in the northeast near Freeport. Probabilistic WSSI continues to suggest a 10-30% chance of minor impacts to travel. Something to keep an eye on, particularly those that have travel plans Saturday morning.

Eventually, precipitation will diminish late in the day Saturday, but cold air advection and cyclonic flow around the upper trough will help keep things on the cold side, with some brisk winds. Northwest winds could gust around 20 to 30 mph Saturday afternoon through the day Sunday, along with lows Saturday night falling to the middle teens to lower 20s. Coupled with the winds, wind chill values Saturday night could fall to the single digits on either side of zero, so a very cold night is expected. Highs Sunday should warm only to the upper 20s to lower 30s (actually seasonal for this time of the year!).

Monday through Wednesday next week: overall, a drier and more mild pattern develops for this time frame, thanks to longwave ridging developing over the western CONUS. There could be a few mid-level shortwaves passing through the area Tuesday and Wednesday where the NBM introduces some 10-30% chances of precipitation, but there are significant differences among the guidance on the timing and spatial coverage of this precip, so not much confidence at this time. Confidence is higher for temperatures to become milder Monday and Tuesday based on the LREF, with highs returning to the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

An area of low pressure passing through the region today into tonight will lead to periods of rain and IFR ceilings/visibilities at times (and possibly isolated embedded thunder). The steadier rain should lift to the north during the late afternoon and evening, and then we'll be left with scattered showers into tonight. Gusty S to SE winds between 20-30 kts today will turn to the WNW this evening/tonight.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

With unfrozen ground, soils should soak up today's rainfall easily. One thing to watch for is with the rainfall combined with the warmer temperatures, there is the potential for some break up ice jam flooding, especially on the Rock River near Moline, which was over minor flood stage last week due to an ice jam. This ice jamming area was surveyed Wednesday by our office staff, and there appears to be no specific jam causing problems on the lower Rock, but rather a broad piling of ice 2-3" thick in an area upstream of a extent of stationary ice near the mouth of the Rock into the Mississippi River. Thus, our warm temperatures and rain may either shift this ice jammed area, or potentially alleviate the jam in the coming days. Either way, a shift is possible, and those with interests near the lower Rock, need to pay close attention through Sunday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.