textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A fast moving storm system is forecast to bring snow as well as mixed precipitation to the area Saturday night into Sunday morning. The winter weather advisory has been expanded to the south and east.

- Active northwest flow aloft is forecast to continue next week with the main storm track near the area. This will bring chances of precipitation every 36 to 48 hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

There are significant changes to the track of the upcoming fast moving shortwave for tonight into Sunday morning resulting in changes to the forecast for Saturday night. The GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian have maintained a similar track to previous runs while the NAM and CAMS have tracked farther to the north. The farther north solutions are leading to precipitation type issues and changes in amounts as the northward shift in the track allows warmer air to be pulled into the area. Overall this reduces forecast confidence in amounts and precipitation types across the area especially for area south of Interstate 80.

The GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian have snow falling areawide with a wintry mix along and south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line as the shortwave and surface low track across northern Missouri. This results in a widespread 2 to 4 inches of snow north of this line with 1 to 2 to the south along with the possibility of a glaze of ice. If this solution looks more likely, further changes to the headlines are possible along the Highway 20 corridor.

The NAM and CAMS have the shortwave and attendant surface low tracking across southern Iowa now. This system is potentially more intense with a band of higher snowfall totals. This pushes the mixed precipitation northward to along the Interstate 80 counties during the evening hours with 1 to 3 inches of snow and 3 to 5 inches farther to to the north. There is a chance of over 5 inches of snow along the Highway 20 corridor. A glaze of ice is possible along and south of Interstate 80. After 06 UTC as the surface low moves to the east of the area, cold air being drawn into the system changes precipitation over to all snow quickly from north to south.

All models have precipitation beginning around 00 UTC west of the Mississippi River and expanding east of the river by 3 UTC. Precipitation intensity areawide increase after 3 UTC or 9 PM as large scale ascent increase and overspread the area. For these reasons, made the decision to expand the winter weather advisory to the south and east and across the area. SREF probabilities show snowfall rates approaching 1 inch per hour so snow may accumulate quickly for a time overnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 246 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Overview: The storm track will remain over the area through the long term period with the storm track (jet stream) meandering back and forth with each passing clipper system. There is a clipper forecast roughly every 36 to 48 hours that will produce mainly light precipitation/snow chances as they pass near or across the area.

Sunday On:

Snow is forecast to come to an end from west to east after 12 UTC Sunday. NW winds will increase behind the departing low and could reach 20-30 mph, leading to some blowing and drifting snow in open and rural areas. The gusty winds will advect a colder air mass into the region with highs in the teens and 20s, and overnight lows in the single digits above and below zero.

Warmer air will be drawn northward on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of another clipper that is forecast to move across the area for the middle of the week. This will result in high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 30s with warmer temperatures lingering into Tuesday night before the front moves across the area. This system will pass farther to the north than the one on Saturday night and depending on the track may result in more of wintry mix across the area but this will ultimately depend on the track of this system. Colder air will spread back into the area behind this system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

MVFR cigs will turn to IFR as snow overspreads the area after 00z Sunday. The next 6 hours will see low MVFR cigs with VFR vsbys. A snow overspreads the area, high snowfall rates with vsbys under 1 mile are possible, especially at CID/DBQ and MLI. Will hold off on going any lower on vsbys at this time due to low confidence.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-099. IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ015-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018. MO...None.