textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A large storm system will continue to impact the upper Midwest through Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms, winds, and temperature fluxes on either side of the complex. A risk for an isolated severe storm remains through early evening for much of the DVN CWA.

- As the system departs, cooler/closer to normal conditions will flow into the region for the mid to late week period. After this evening, spotty rain showers will be possible at times through Thursday under the upper trof axis.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 142 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Tonight...The latest water vapor imagery was telling the tale of warm moist conveyor feed off the western Gulf to the lee of the cyclone complex, and alternating dry feed/slots and cool conveyor processes wrapping around it's northwestern flank. Impressive wind fields though the columns around this feature, including a 100+ KT upper jet streak darting up northward acrs central into eastern IA ATTM. Latest mesoanalysis showing a field of 300+ m2/s2 0-1 KM SRH building into the local CWA from the south, while some cloud breaks and resultant MUCAPE fields of at least 500 J/kg acrs north central MO into south central into southeast IA occur. Although most CAMs suggest these CAPEs to wane as they try to develop further to the northeast and LLVL lapse rates are less than 6 C/km locally, the watch will still have to be on for high shear-produced storm cells that will probably rotate. Will they maintain and eventually produce the potential for a brief tornado occurrence, or just get sheared apart from lack of better CAPE and instability? There remains the potentail for at least 1 or 2 fleeting twisters produced by a broken line of small low-topped cells from 3 PM to 8 PM (although it gets dark after 5 PM now limiting the second half of the forcing window). Expect a bit of a flare up on the nose of in-wrapping dry slot, negatively tilting upper low, and upper jet right entrance max forcing/deep lift effects over the next few hours. Thus agreed with the SPC Day 1 Marginal expansion covering much of the DVN CWA now.

After the evening chances, dry slot to make for a mainly dry overnight until toward morning when the chance for sctrd light showers and sprinkles increases again in the wrap-around especially north of Hwy 30. Some cool advection in the northwest/west conveyor feed for 12 hour low temps in the upper 40s to low 50s by 12z Wed.

Wednesday...This day to be a breezy dry slot period with closer to normal high temps in the mid to upper 50s. A few isolated to sctrd light showers possible with southwest sfc winds of 15 to 25 MPH, but feel most of the day will be characterized as dry. Model ensembles agree on pivoting the upper trof axis from the upper MS RVR Valley/MN down toward eastern IA toward Thu morning, which may bring in some showers into the northwestern CWA before 12z Thu. Cooler lows well down in the 40s by Thu morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 142 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The latter half of the work week may start off on a cloudy note Thursday, due to the continued cyclonic flow over the region and upper trof effects. Some guidance suggests we could even see some sunshine Thursday, but with the upper-level system/cyclonic flow still in place, have leaned towards a mostly cloudy forecast. Some sctrd showers continue to look to occur Thursday and into Thursday evening under the passing upper trof axis. Things look to fully dry out by Friday as an area of high pressure and upper-level ridging develop and build acrs the region. If skies can clear out along with a sfc wind decouple, Friday night into Saturday morning should have low temps well down in the 30s.

As we look ahead towards the upcoming weekend into early next week, there's not much of note, thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge that's progged to develop over the Intermountain West states. This will help block any shortwaves from translating over our region, resulting in a dry forecast. Average to slightly above average temperatures will be common during this time frame, with highs in the middle to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s. Return flow warming may help produce another round of well above temps back into the 60s for Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rather turbulent aviation period in store for this afternoon and evening in strong vertical wind fields ahead of a large low pressure storm system lifting up from northwest MO toward northwest WI through Midnight tonight. Sctrd showers and thunderstorms will move quickly north acrs the area through this evening, producing passing bouts of enhanced winds, and MVFR to IFR reduced VSBY's from rain downpours. CIGs have been a challenge and will remain so through this evening with varying bouts of IFR ranging to VFR levels, and then expect mainly MVFR values tonight into Wed morning. With the main sfc cyclone passage by late tonight, a front will sweep in from the west veering the sfc winds to the southwest Wed morning and becoming west-southwest and gusty at the end of the TAF period. Besides an isolated light shower possible, expect mainly dry conditions from 06z-18z Wed.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.