textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to isolated storms this morning with continuing locally heavy rainfall threat, then potentially a more widespread storm cluster or MCS moving acrs the area late afternoon and tonight with a Slight Risk for severe weather.

- Active weather pattern to continue through the weekend, with greatest storm coverage at night into the morning. Due to successive rainfall events, additional totals of 2 to 4 inches by Saturday morning are favored with localized higher values likely(70%), continuing the flash flood threat.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

LLJ fed lingering bands of mainly elevated sctrd storms will continue into mid morning before diurnal processes allow them to wane. Will have to watch the banded storms in southwest to central IA for trends trying to zipper more east or northeast and meet up with the current activity in the local CWA over the next few hours for a flooding axis. With the main boundary shunted for now to the south of the CWA, again these storms should mainly elevated with locally heavy rainfall(PWAT pool of 2 inches in place) and only an isolated lower end severe potential through late morning. Then expect a convective lull from late morning through mid afternoon with just maybe a few rounds of passing debris or light high bases showers. This will keep most temps in the 70s to low 80s except maybe the far south heating up into the upper 80s if the boundary can retreat some as a warm front into those areas...this front may have better north push further to the west acrs western IA and the MO RVR Valley by late afternoon to the lee of the next short wave.

Then attention turns to the next main upstream short wave/MCV now seen on W/V imagery acrs far northeastern CO. This feature projected to roll acrs central IA by midnight tonight, and with leeside LLVL jet feed and shear will probably form another robust cluster of storms/MCS. This is the main reason for SPC's upgrade to a Slight Risk again, a daily occurrence. Still some uncertainty on how far north or south the main storm complex will propagate acrs IA and the local area, but many of the latest CAMs and 00z GFS suggest along and north of I-80 from mid evening into the overnight.There may be some precursor banded elevated WAA wings of showers/storms from late afternoon and early evening, but the MCS will be the main show. As has been all week, all types of severe modes possible with the prime risk being bowing segments with damaging winds again. That and heavy rainfall compounding the flash flooding and river/creek flooding threat into Sat morning. Will of course keep the Flood Watch going with storm chances CWA-wide tonight.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Saturday...Current ensemble handling the ridge periphery and short wave timing suggest that most of Sat may be a lull window in the convective onslaught. This may allow for a full on warm front retreat back north bathing most of the cWA in a steamy warm sector with highs in the upper 80s or near 90 with high sfc DPTs well up in the 70s. If this scenario holds, Saturday may be a candidate for the need of a heat headline. Then the nocturnal processes kick in for more storm chances Sat night.

Sunday through Thursday...Medium range ensembles suggest an upper pattern flux with brunt of the upper ridge retrograde and some flattening and trending of the mid CONUS steering flow to a northwesterly regime by early next week. This process may come at the risk of shunting a cool font down through the area late Saturday night or Sunday with an associated storm risk, but eventually lead to a cooler and more settled weather regime for at least Monday into Tuesday. But even west-northwesterlies usher acrs short waves and MCV's and we may be due again for some convection by mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A Mesoscale Convective System is lifting northeastward across the area and will impact KCID, KMLI, and KDBQ through 15 UTC this morning with IFR to potentially LIFR ceilings and visibilities. Scattered showers and storms may impact KBRL over that period as well. A lull in the weather is expected through 00 UTC Saturday with MVFR ceilings across the area. There is low confidence in the timing of convection during the late afternoon into the early evening with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping in the 2 to 06 UTC window and continuing overnight with MVFR to IFR conditions possible. Winds are forecast to remain easterly through the period at 5 to 10 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ILZ007-009-015>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ009-010.