textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record/record high temperatures today with an elevated fire risk.

- Chances (20-30%) for light rain late tonight and Sunday with the passage of a cold front.

- Much cooler Sunday and Monday, albeit highs still near to above normal.

- Passing systems will bring shifting winds and fluctuating temperatures mid-week into next weekend along with periodic precipitation chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A warm front will lift through the region today, aided by a broad low pressure system moving from the Northern Plains to the northern Great Lakes. Strengthening warm advection with winds shifting from east/southeast to southwest and turning gusty at 20-30 mph by afternoon will advect in an anomalously warm airmass (850 hPa temperatures 2-3 standard deviations above normal). 925 hPa temperatures progged at 20c to 24c would be near to above the warmest for a DVN RAOB in March since records began in 1995 per SPC sounding climatology. The warmest was 22c on 3/14/2025, which correlated to a high of 83 at MLI, 82 at DVN on that day. So, we should expect a day of widespread 80s, which will challenge daily record highs (see climate section below). Wouldn't rule out a few locations west of an Iowa City to Macomb line coming close to 90 degrees based on surface parcel trajectories from northwest Missouri where Kansas City yesterday hit 90 degrees making it the earliest 90 degree day on record since 1888! From a blizzard to potentially needing air conditioning in a span of 6 days with early summer-like (mid/late June) warmth/heat today! How wild is that... you gotta love it!!

The very warm and breezy conditions and eventual abundant sunshine will be favorable for rapid drying of fuels and topsoil leading to an elevated fire risk today. Of greatest concern will be areas south of I-80 where soil moisture rankings as of March 19th were mainly in the 10th-25th percentile. Despite the recent precipitation, the rapid nature of the snowmelt, strengthening solar insolation and warmth with wind all combine for quick drying. There were reports of a few field fires yesterday in McDonough county, IL. Please avoid burning if at all possible. A cold front will move southward into the region late tonight. The general consensus of the guidance places the front near Hwy 30 to north of I-80 by 12z Sunday, fairly typical placement this time of year with still a chilly Lake Michigan and a veering post-frontal wind flow more from the north/northeast. This will lead to a decent temperature gradient tonight, coolest in the north (40s) and mild to the south (50s/near 60) with continued southerly winds. The front will then continue to sag southward through the rest of the area on Sunday morning. This faster frontal timing has lend to a downward trend on highs Sunday, and a larger range (40s north to 60s south). Going highs were trended down toward the median of the NBM guidance, but still concerns they are too warm and need further lowering particularly north of Hwy 34 with the likelihood of post-frontal lower clouds, gusty northerly winds and also a chance for light rain (aided by jet dynamics and a low to mid level Fgen response that sags east/southeast). It's going to be quite the change going from an early summer-like day today to a brisk, fall-like day Sunday, especially near/north of I-80 as areas further south squeak out early highs in the 60s to lower 70s before temps drop.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Sunday night will feature much cooler conditions with lows more seasonable and generally in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

The more seasonable airmass will hang around on Monday, with dry conditions as high pressure builds in.

Heading into mid-week the flow pattern aloft will feature a large ridge from the southwest into south-central CONUS, with northwest flow across our region. Airmass modification and expansion of mid level warming to our south will lead to near to above normal temperatures. Northwest flow will shuttle several waves down across the region, which will eventually foster fluctuating temperatures heading beyond mid-week into next weekend along with periodic precipitation chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. Winds will remain light through early Saturday morning, and then increase from the southwest during the late morning and afternoon with gusts 20-25+ kts. A cold front will sag southward into areas north of I-80 Saturday evening with winds becoming northerly at KDBQ and KCID, while remaining southerly at KMLI and KBRL through 06z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Record Highs:

March 21 Burlington: 88 in 1907 Cedar Rapids: 85 in 1938 and previous Dubuque: 81 in 1938 Moline: 82 in 1938 and previous

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.