textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures combined with slowly rising humidity levels will allow an elevated fire risk to persist across parts of the area through Tuesday.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms late Monday night north of I-80. Hail looks to be the primary risk.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening for the area.

- Southwest flow aloft will bring moisture into the Midwest and increase the prospects for rain this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Windy and warmer conditions will be seen across the area today. The nocturnal inversion will break late morning which will allow gusts up to 25-30 mph. Sunset will allow the boundary layer to decouple and allow wind to diminish to around 10 mph.

Refer to the fire weather section for the overall fire risk for Sunday through Tuesday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Monday Assessment...a certainty (>99%) of well above normal temperatures. Record highs may be challenged.

Windy and very warm conditions will be seen across the area on Monday. Moisture surging into the area will temper the diurnal temperature swings, but, diurnal swings of 25-30 degrees appear likely.

The dryness of the atmosphere will allow temperatures to surge into the upper 70s and 80s across the area. Record highs will be challenged. Refer to the climate section for specific information.

Monday night through Tuesday night Assessment...Very high (>90%) confidence of well above normal temperatures. Low to medium (20-30%) confidence on rain

After sunset Monday, the low level jet will kick in and transport additional moisture into the area. The LLJ combined with a weak upper level disturbance will provide the necessary lift to initiate showers and thunderstorms shortly before midnight.

Based on atmospheric profiles, this nocturnal convection is expected to be elevated. Indeed there is evidence of an elevated mixed layer but very large surface based inhibition. The initiation area looks to be north of I-80 and could easily be north of Highway 30.

The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms north of I-80. With elevated storms, hail would be the primary risk. If discrete individual storms develop and persist, this would be the likely scenario for severe hail. However, if storms become multicellular then the severe hail risk would decrease in favor of considerable sub-severe hail.

Tuesday into Tuesday night has the potential to be interesting.

More showers and storms are expected to occur Tuesday into Tuesday night. Given the strength of the front there will be a severe risk in the warm airmass ahead of the front. The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms during the afternoon and evening.

If the frontal movement is as quick as last Thursday then the severe risk would be limited to the far southern areas. The ECMWF/ICON models support this scenario. The difference between last Thursday and Tuesday is that the wind direction was more northeast which helped push the front down the lakes faster. On Tuesday the wind direction is more northwest which potentially could result in a slower frontal movement. Right now the ECMWF/ICON solutions have a 30% probability of occurring.

The GFS/CMC/UKMET models show a slower frontal movement but only the UKMET develops a line of storms. The GFS/CMC have a few storms with more post-frontal rain. Thus IF severe storms occur on Tuesday, the most likely time frame would be 4-11 PM and the location would generally south of I-80.

Wednesday through Saturday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a cool down followed by another warm-up for the weekend. Medium (40-60%) confidence on rain chances.

On Wednesday the cold front will stall south of the area. How far south of the area will be key as to whether Wednesday is dry. With the Gulf open, return moisture will be flowing north in broad lift over the surface and upper level fronts. At the same time an upper level disturbance moves east from the Plains.

Right now the model consensus has Wednesday morning dry with rain showers developing in the afternoon. If this scenario is correct, there will be dry periods and locations in the afternoon.

Wednesday night through Thursday night all global models agree a low will move out of the Rockies into the Plains and eventually move northeast along the front, However, some solutions have the low moving into the Ohio Valley while other move it into the Great Lakes.

The differences in storm track affects the sensible weather for the area. The model consensus has precipitation starting out as rain Wednesday evening with a rain/snow mix developing north of I-80 late Wednesday night into Thursday.

There may or may not be a respite from the rain Thursday night. Whether or not Thursday night is dry depends on the storm track. A further east track would support rain ending Thursday evening with most of the overnight dry. A further west track would allow rain to persist Thursday night. Right now the model consensus has a further west track.

Friday through Saturday, a seasonably strong upper low with upper jet support ejects out the longwave trof over the western CONUS. These features combined with moisture flowing north from the Gulf will initiate another round of rain for the Midwest, especially Friday night into Saturday.

Timing differences between the global models have the model consensus introducing a 20-30% chance of rain Friday afternoon. If the slower solutions verify, then Friday has the potential to be dry. The model consensus agrees that Friday night into Saturday is the better chances for rain which are currently at 50-60%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Southerly flow will continue over the next 36 hours. The nocturnal inversion will break 15-16z/29 resulting in wind gusts up to 25 knots and low level mechanical turbulence. The boundary layer will decouple after sunset with winds dropping to 10 knots or less.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Sunday...

Strong southerly flow will continue Sunday with winds of 15 to 25 mph once the inversion breaks in the late morning. These strong winds will create deep mixing that will drop humidity levels in spite of moisture flowing north into the area. Minimum humidity levels of 30-35 percent are expected this afternoon. These humidities combined with the wind and temperatures in the 60s will create an elevated fire risk from late morning through sunset.

Monday...

A more widespread GFDI "very high" forecast will be seen for the area as highs climb mainly into the 80s with 15 to 25 mph southerly winds. Deep mixing will again drop humidity levels into the 30s creating another day of an elevated fire risk. However, given the dried vegetation across the area, parts of the area could be borderline red flag if humidity levels drop further than forecast.

Tuesday...

Windy conditions will again be seen on Tuesday and looks to be another day of an elevated fire risk with temperatures in the 70s to around 80. Unlike Monday, more moisture will be flowing into the area which will temper how much humidity levels drop. Additionally, there will be a chance of rain during the afternoon and into the evening hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record highs for March 30th....

Burlington.........84 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......82 in 1943 Dubuque............81 in 1943 Moline.............82 in 1986 and previous years

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.