textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Have seen a little northwest shift to the heavier snowfall axis, with greatest impacts and potential for several inches of snow focusing mostly along/northwest of a Vinton to Manchester line. Amounts look to taper off to the southeast of there with little in the way of accumulation south of a Monmouth to Keosauqua line.

- Gusty winds and reduced visibility in falling snow, along with snow covered roads mainly from the Quad Cities and to the north and west will provide impacts for the morning commute.

- Strong west to northwest winds are expected this morning, gusting to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of west-central and northwestern Illinois as well as far eastern Iowa.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Latest surface analysis places a 992 mb low near Galena, IL at 2 AM. The mid level low /700 mb/ was positioned between Dubuque and Waterloo, IA. Radar and observations show bands of mostly light to moderate snow spreading/developing southeastward from near Dubuque through Iowa City and Ottumwa in the wrap-around behind this mid-level circulation. Further east an initial warm, dry mid level layer is beginning to cool and as this does soundings and obs reveal a loss of saturation through the DGZ and hence the likelihood for supercooled droplets leading to some drizzle. Fortunately, temperatures are primarily above freezing where this potential is greatest near/north of I-80 along and east of the Mississippi River. We'll introduce ice aloft though as the column continues to cool, and this should transition over to predominantly snow as this precipitation attendant to the trailing mid-level deformation axis swings through this morning, tapering off from southwest to northeast mostly mid to late morning. The guidance and obs support a bit of a northwest shift to the heaviest band within the pivot point, and as a result it looks like the greatest potential for several inch amounts owing to greatest travel impacts with snow covered/slick roads will reside across our far northwest service area or northwest of a Vinton to Manchester line. Amounts look to drop off to the southeast of this axis and with the northwest shift we could be looking at a sharp gradient in amounts to the southeast of this line and across Linn and Dubuque counties (more in the northwest, less in the southeast), where still snow covered roads likely result in travel impacts for the morning commute. As such, we have left the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory as is, given the timing of the morning commute and those areas with greatest impact despite some lower confidence on amounts due to the shift northward last evening. As you go further south/east from Dubuque to Cedar Rapids through the QC metro we're expecting mainly an inch or less of accumulation, and with temps dropping below freezing could be some slick spots and accums on untreated roads. Accumulations and impacts look to abate getting south of a Burlington to Monmouth line.

In addition, this morning the pressure gradient will quickly tighten as the low departs. This will produce winds gusting 30 mph to upwards of 45 mph, highest along and east of the Mississippi River where a Wind Advisory Remains in effect through mid morning to midday. These wind gusts with the falling snow will likely produce periods of reduced visibility and while the snow initially will be a wet, heavy snow as temps get colder before the snow ends we could see it become a bit drier/lighter and thus more readily able to blow/drift. All, in all it won't be a nice morning for travel between the strong winds and the accumulating snow, so take it easy if you will be traveling.

High pressure will begin to build in this afternoon through evening bringing a decrease in clouds and also a diminishing of winds. Lows tonight coldest over the snow cover (teens, and perhaps some single digits) with 20s elsewhere combined with just enough wind will lead to cold wind chills bottoming out around zero to 10 above.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable/cooler conditions look still to be on track for the weekend and early next week. With that being said, models are starting to come into more agreement on a low amplitude wave dropping down across the region Saturday night into Sunday. Given the forcing and cold advection can't rule out at least some flurries, and if more moisture then would see a chance for light snow.

Then a warming but low amplitude ridge looks to arrive and bring mild temps with it by mid next week with values into the 40s and maybe 50s. Some potential for a mid to late week system for the next precip chance, but it doesn't look significant at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Snow will continue to rotate through KDBQ, KCID and KMLI mainly through mid-morning before diminishing by midday. Snow will be light to moderate and with gusty winds will bring bouts of predominantly IFR to LIFR visibility with IFR to lower MVFR ceilings. Accumulations of an around an inch or two is likely with rates of around 0.5 inch or more per hour and temperatures dropping below freezing. The snow will be a wet heavy snow to start but as temps drop will become light and may lead to some blowing/drifting persisting for a while after the snowfall, but confidence is low to add mention. KBRL will see some light snow or flurries with little in the way of accumulation and visibility restriction, but conditions will be lower MVFR to possibly IFR due to lower clouds. Winds will gust from the west/northwest at 30 to 45 kt this morning. After the snow comes to an end, gradual improving conditions are expected with winds slowly diminishing by this evening.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ040>042-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ052>054-063>065. Wind Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ054-066-068. IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ001. Wind Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024. Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ026-035. MO...None.