textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulating snow will continue to translate through the area this afternoon into the early evening hours. Slick road conditions are possible, along with blowing snow resulting in reduced visibilities and hazardous travel.

- The active weather pattern will continue Sunday into the work week, with additional clipper systems impacting the area. Another round of light snow is possible during the PM hours Sunday.

- Temperatures will remain cold through Monday before moderating by Tuesday. Sunday night/Monday morning will be bitterly cold, with a Cold Weather Advisory now in effect for much of the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A mid-level shortwave trough continues to sweep eastward over the local area this afternoon, supporting widespread light snow (70 to 100% chances across the area this afternoon). The latest GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery shows this wave very well, with enhanced 850-700 mb layer FGEN banding on the backside of the mid- level low extending from near Dubuque to Ottumwa. While snowfall rates and accumulations are expected to remain relatively light (less than 1/4 inch/hour and between 1 to 2 inches along and north of Highway 30, respectively), a saturated DGZ with depths of 7000- 9000 feet per the NAM and RAP, along with a tight pressure gradient in place, should result in blowing snow on northwest winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph. This has caused reduced visibilities, particularly in open, rural areas. Additionally, cold pavement temperatures in the teens and lower 20s per local RWIS stations should allow snow to stick, and blowing/drifting snow should support at least partial coverage of snow on untreated roadways. With all of this said, we will continue our Special Weather Statement for the Highway 34 corridor and points north through 6 PM this evening. If travel impacts continue into the early evening, the SPS may need to be extended slightly.

A lull in the active pattern is expected tonight, as a surface ridge briefly develops tonight. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy tonight as we remain under northwesterly cyclonic flow aloft under the upper-level trough. The cold air advection should help temperatures fall to the single digits above zero tonight.

Sunday will see yet another mid-level shortwave diving southeastward during the Sunday PM hours, with more chances of light snow (30- 60%). Most guidance once again depicts light snow amounts with this, with the character of the snow remaining dry and fluffy. Some reductions in visibility will be possible once again as winds look to strengthen in the wake of a weak surface low, gusting to around 30 mph in the late afternoon/evening hours. This could result in blowing/drifting snow once again, especially in rural, open areas, and slippery travel.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 255 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Sunday night and Monday morning will be quite cold in the wake of Sunday's system, with strong cold air advection and steep low-level lapse rates to result in strengthening wind gusts to around 35 mph. Overnight lows are expected to plummet to the single digits - both above and below zero. Combined with the winds, wind chill values are expected to fall between -15 to -30 degrees. The latest HREF ensembles are showing a very strong signal for wind chills of 20 below, with exceedance probabilities of these values between 70 to 100% for most of the CWA (along and north of Highway 92). With such high confidence, we have decided to issue a Cold Weather Advisory for this portion of the CWA from 11 PM Sunday to noon Monday. There could still be some adjustments to the advisory, so check back for updates.

Monday through the end of the work week: conditions will remain cold, at least through Monday night, before moderating by Tuesday. Northwest flow persists Monday into Monday night, with highs only increasing to the single digits and teens above zero, with overnight lows near zero to the single digits above zero. Temperatures Tuesday through Friday will be more seasonal, with highs in the 20s to lower 30s. As far as precipitation chances are concerned, the only system we see on the horizon during this time frame is Tuesday night as a mid-level clipper passes by to the north. There are some questions as to the areal coverage of the precipitation, so confidence is low on this scenario, and as such, the NBM has precip chances between 10 to 40 percent - highest over northeast Iowa into northwestern Illinois. Other than that, not seeing any other systems.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Patchy light snow will be accompanied by occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities through early tonight before improvement to VFR late into Sunday AM. Another clipper system will bring periods of low clouds (2500-5000 ft AGL) and a chance for light snow by mid/late Sunday afternoon, highest at DBQ (60%+). CID and MLI will likely be closer to the southern edge of the shield of light snow so mentioned potential in PROB30s at these two sites.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076-077. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for IAZ067- 068-078. IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for ILZ001- 002-007-009-015-016-024. MO...None.