textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances today into tonight. Locally heavy rain and isolated flash flooding are the main concerns, along with lightning. Gusty winds are also possible.

- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions becoming more likely (50-80%) Sunday through the middle of next week, with increasing heat and humidity levels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A messy environment is in store for this afternoon as a series of boundaries and an uncapped environment allows for showers and storms to develop. Convection earlier this morning was focused along a broad lake boundary stretching from Anamosa IA to McNabb IL, which has largely weakened as of early afternoon. Any remaining outflow boundaries from this morning's storms will support additional showers and storms. Weak forcing and shear of only 20-25kts will help limit longevity, favoring instead pulse-type storms. While storms may be short-lived, heavy rain, isolated lightning, and a funnel cloud or two will be possible with the strongest storms.

Of greater note this afternoon and evening is an MCV, currently located over northwest Missouri. Widespread showers and scattered storms along and south of Interstate 80 will be likely as this progress eastward across northern Missouri. While shear profiles are weak, environmental modification with the MCV could strengthen shear on the local scale, leading to a localized severe threat. This threat, if it materializes, would be limited to the very southern tier of the CWA across northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois, closest to the MCV. While the severe threat remains quite localized, a more widespread risk of heavy rain and flash flooding exists south of I-80, especially from the Highway 34 corridor south. This is due to weak flow aloft and forecast storm motions of only 10-20 kts, combined with high PWATS of 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Areas that see repeated rounds of heavy rain or are under nearly stationary storms will be especially at risk for flash flooding.

Late tonight, showers and storms will gradually dissipate and move east. Low level northeasterly flow may allow for another lake boundary to reach the area by early morning Saturday, which would allow for low clouds to linger through midday. Otherwise, Saturday will be a pleasant and seasonable summer day as a ridge builds in from the west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Much of the period Saturday night through the middle of next week looks to be dry with warming temperatures. In fact, some of the deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest an upper ridge building into the Northern Plains potentially strengthening to incredibly over 600 dam! This will likely result in some historic heat for the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains this weekend into next week. We will be warming this weekend into early next week, but the much more impressive low level airmass (925 mb temps +25 to +35C) will remain entrenched well to our west from the Intermountain West into the Northern Plains. We should warm well into the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs by Sunday through the middle of next week. The hottest days look to be Tuesday/Wednesday when the upper ridge builds in (595+ dam 500 mb heights) and more widespread highs in the 90s appear likely. However, at the surface we are likely to have high pressure in/near the area which should keep the dew points and subsequent humidity levels more in check compared to our previous bout of heat in late June/early July. Nonetheless, it will be hot with highs in the 90s and heat index readings well in the 90s to possibly nearing 100 in a few spots Tuesday/Wednesday.

Heading into the latter half of next week, there are signs for a return of precipitation chances via either 1) the flattening of the upper ridge and restrengthening out west due to passage of canadian shortwave(s), and/or 2) upper level energy cutoff and undercutting the ridge while retrograding westward into the Midwest.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A mixed bag of flight conditions is expected over the period. Current conditions show a lingering deck of lake-boundary stratus over DBQ, which will keep BKN MVFR cigs through 10/19Z. A NW-SE oriented band of slow-moving isolated showers and storms will continue to bring MVFR conditions to MLI as well. Weak forcing and limited suppression means that additional isolated showers and storms will be possible at all terminals through 11/03Z, with MVFR to IFR/LIFR conditions possible if a shower/storm passes over the terminal. Low confidence in location of storms has limited any PROB30/TEMPO mention to MLI/BRL. The highest confidence in shower and storm potential is at BRL due to a disturbance passing south of the terminal during the period. This will modify the environment and potential for stronger storms, with heavy rain and gusty winds. A TEMPO group is in effect from 10/21Z to 11/01Z. Past 11/06Z, guidance suggest the potential for cigs and vsbys to drop to MVFR, but have held off on any mention as shower and storm placement will influence later conditions.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.