textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong storms possible this afternoon/early evening mainly along and south of I-80.

- Thunderstorm timing this evening has been delayed until after 8pm this evening through the overnight hours. A level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms remains, with the primary hazards damaging winds and hail. - Dry and cool conditions Saturday, with another warming trend returning Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 156 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Much of the area received beneficial rain this morning, with totals generally between 0.30" and 1.50". The last time we saw rain amounts this high was back on Jan 9th! A Spring-like feel to the air was seen today, as a warm front lifted north. As of Noon, surface observations have a surface low near Estherville, IA, with a warm frontal zone extending southeast towards Marshalltown and then along the Hwy 30 corridor into Illinois. A strong cold front was observed from the surface low near KEST southwest towards KOMA. Radar mosaics show a few thunderstorms over northwest IL developing along a MUCAPE and 700mb moisture gradient with more isolated storms forming just east of Des Moines.

An active 18-24 hours is in store for the region, as the aforementioned surface low tracks northeast into northern WI by 09z Saturday. Differential heating due to breaks in the clouds late this morning has allowed some areas to warm quicker than forecast today. This has resulted in a very low risk of strong storms developing this afternoon and early evening roughly along and south of a line from Ottumwa, to the Quad Cities, to Sterling. Storm coverage will be quite isolated if any more develop with the lack of an apparent trigger until late evening. Our 18z DVN sounding had a capping inversion around 940mb which may keep any surface based and subsequent tornadic threat near zero this afternoon.

Attention then turns to the progression of the strong cold front that is progged to move through late this evening. Very strong kinematics and a very moist environment (deep layer shear over 55kts, steep lapse rates, and PWs around 1.3") will be in place ahead of the front. The question mark remains is how much instability will still be available as the storms near the CWA late in the evening. At this time, latest CAMs show scattered discrete storms developing over central IA after 4pm growing upscale into one or two dominant segments or lines. The primary hazards will be strong wind gusts of 60+ mph, isolated large hail, and possibly a few spin up tornadoes associated with any northeastward surging segments. After midnight, the convection should quickly become less organized with the severe threat quickly diminishing. Heavy rain and sub-severe winds will remain through the rest of the overnight hours as the cold front pushes east.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 156 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This Weekend...the aforementioned cold front will be just east of MS RVR at 12z Saturday, with breezy northwest winds ushering in cooler temperatures. Some wrap-around clouds may linger into the late morning/early afternoon keeping temps noticeably cooler and reminding us that it is still early March. Calendar day highs will occur before sunrise, with afternoon temps only reaching the mid to upper 40s. Return flow commences Sunday, with highs reaching the 60s with plentiful sunshine. Deep mixing and a strong pressure gradient develops in the afternoon to support breezy southwest winds gusting over 30 mph at times. We may have to watch for some fire wx concerns as afternoon min RH values drop below 35%.

Next Week...roller coaster temperatures are expected once again with well above normal temps close to record highs Monday/Tuesday and then falling temps closer to more seasonable values behind a cold front Tuesday night. This front will offer our next chance of precip but doesn't look to bring widespread QPF, with the NBM only showing 50-70% probs of greater than 0.25" south of a Rockford, IL to Fairfield, IA line ending 12z Wed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

First round of showers and storms will move into southern Wisconsin by 20z/06 allowing conditions to improve to VFR. Isolated to low end scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop 20z/06 to 01z/07 across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Main push of SHRA/TSRA to occur after 02z/07 as a squall line moves through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with potential for wind gusts up to 45 knots and VSBYS briefly under 1SM in IFR/LIFR conditions. After frontal passage conditions will improve to MVFR/VFR with gusts up to 25 knots.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1239 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 6: KBRL: 73 in 1910 KCID: 73 in 2005 KDBQ: 69 in 2000 KMLI: 73 in 2005

March 9: KBRL: 74 in 1986 KCID: 68 in 2021 KDBQ: 65 in 1977 KMLI: 71 in 2021

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.