textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of the area through mid/late morning.

- Strong cold front remains on track to sweep through the area late this afternoon into early tonight, bringing much colder temperatures for mid to late week.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the outlook area from late tonight into Wednesday. West to northwest wind gusts between 40 to 50 mph are expected.

- A wintry system is possible late Friday into the weekend, with additional systems beyond that, making for a busy weather pattern. Uncertainty remains with the timing and impacts from the weekend system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Areas of fog, dense at times will continue through this morning across the outlook area. Conditions will be slow to improve with a weak area of low pressure over the region leading to light and variable winds, and little boundary layer mixing.

This Afternoon Through Wednesday:

A potent shortwave will track from the Northern Plains into the Midwest today, leading to a deepening surface low across Wisconsin into the northern Great Lakes region. This system will drag a strong cold front through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois late this afternoon into early tonight, resulting in windy conditions overnight through Wednesday with gusts between 40 to 50 mph. These values are slightly below the NBM 50th percentile max gusts, so some 50+ mph gusts may be possible. Forecast HRRR/RAP soundings show 50+ kts near the top of the mixed layer (~850-900mb) late tonight through Wednesday AM. Continued mixing in the boundary layer, combined with isentropic downglide in strong low-level cold air advection should result in efficient downward momentum transfer to the surface. Thus confidence is high on peak gusts exceeding 45 mph for most of the outlook area, with the highest chances for 50+ mph to the north of I-80. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire outlook area, except for far NE Missouri, for late tonight and through most of Wednesday.

The strong winds will advect a much colder air mass into the region, leading to early Wednesday AM wind chills in the teens. For high temperatures, expect a significant drop from the low/mid 50s today to the mid/upper 30s on Wednesday. There is also potential for some light snow across the north tonight, especially north of I-80 as moisture wraps around to the soutwest of the compact surface low/trough shifting across Wisconsin. QPF amounts will remain light; however, with temperatures falling below freezing, minor accumulations of a dusting to under 1 inch are possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving and Friday: It will continue to be on the chilly side, with low temperatures each morning in the teens to lower 20s. Coupled with the winds, wind chills will fall to the teens area-wide, and even some single digits are possible across our north. However, this period looks to stay dry.

We continue to monitor a wintry system slated to move through the area Friday night through the Thanksgiving weekend, which could bring widespread accumulating snow to the region. There remains a lot of uncertainty on how this system will evolve as there are questions about where the baroclinic zone will set up and on the track and strength of the surface low. For the late Friday night into Saturday night period, the NBM 24-hr probabilities for 1" or more of snow are between 60% - 90%, and for 2"+ between 50% - 70%. Make sure to keep up with the latest forecast if you have travel plans this weekend as we will be able to provide more specifics over the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A system passing through today will continue to blanket the area in low stratus through much of the TAF period. Currently, we are seeing the low morning vis improve, with most areas now seeing vis around 6SM or greater. CID/DBQ may still see some lower vis for a few hours, which has been covered with a TEMPO group until 20z. Otherwise, we will see slight cig increases through the day, but will largely remain MVFR/IFR. We will have a disconnected line of showers pass through between 21-02z from west-east. This will bring a brief rain shower to some terminals, which I have opted to highlight with a PROB30 group. Confidence in coverage is low, as some locations might not see the showers, nor impacts. Overall, aviation impacts should be lower from that, mainly seeing brief reductions in vis/cigs. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast focuses on the strong winds moving in behind the cold front that is progged to pass through this evening. Ahead of it, we will see southwest winds that can gust upwards to 20 KTs. After 00z this evening, we will see the winds pick up out of the west-northwest, behind the front. Sustained winds between 20-30 KTs can be expected by 06z, with gusts upwards to 40KT+.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ015-024>026-034-035. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-016>018. MO...None.