textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue this week and a 55% chance of continuing through the end of October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

A shortwave is visible in water vapor imagery just to our south, which has left a few lingering mid to high clouds over the area. However, these clouds have had little impact on radiational cooling, with much of the area already dropping into the low to mid 40s, though cooler temperatures may be possible in poor drainage areas. Despite the cool start to the day, today will be yet another day basking under the influence of high pressure. Winds will be weak but could support deep mixing, as was observed yesterday. If this happens, temperatures could be a degree or two warmer than the current forecast, which is in the low 70s.

Another shortwave will make its way along the edge of the ridge Wednesday, though any impacts will be limited once more to an increase in cloud cover due to weakening forcing and dry low levels. Otherwise, the forecast remains quite similar to today, if not a couple degrees warmer, as we continue in this pattern of pleasant fall weather.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

By Thursday, ridge amplification will be underway. The high pressure center will shift southward over the Great Lakes. As a result, highs in the mid 60s to low 70s are expected. Occasional cloud chances each day may help temper the gradual 1-2 degree increase each day. However, while above normal temperatures are expected to continue through the weekend, a warm and dry but dreary day may be in store for at least part of the weekend as warm conveyor belt processes ahead of an approaching shortwave trough may lead to increased cloud cover.

However, there is sizable uncertainty regarding whether this shortwave trough will impact the CWA and if so, when that would occur. Guidance continues to be divided on the track and timing of this trough, with the majority of models and ensembles favoring a slower track with any impacts arriving Monday or later. The exception to this is the GEFS and GFS, which favor a quicker progression with the trough reaching the forecast area by Sunday. As a result, while it appears likely that above normal temperatures will continue, there is low confidence on whether we receive measurable precipitation or continue with this stretch of dry weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A midlevel cloud deck around 20-25 kft is dissipating, which will result in clear skies by 20/13Z. Winds remain light at less than 10 kts and primarily from the south-southeast.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.