textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Aside from a quick hitting system bringing the chance for scattered showers on Wednesday, mostly dry conditions will remain through the forecast period.

- Temperatures trend down through Saturday, prior to increasing above seasonal normals Sunday and beyond.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A shortwave trough and attendant surface low currently over the eastern Dakotas into western Minnesota will drop southeastward overnight into Wednesday morning. This system will track through the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region with the surface low passing through central to southeast Iowa and then into central Illinois by Wednesday afternoon. Large-scale ascent downstream of the compact mid-level trough, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates yielding MUCAPE values between 300-600 J/kg, will likely lead to the development of scattered showers across portions of eastern Iowa into northwest Illinois already by early Wednesday morning. PoPs have been increased with 30-60% now along and north of the I-80 corridor.

The main limiting factor for more widespread rainfall is a lack of low-level moisture, with dewpoints forecast to only be in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Around a tenth or less of rainfall is expected for most locations, with areas that get hit by a few of the stronger showers potentially picking up near a quarter inch. For timing, the most likely period for scattered shower activity and possibly a few isolated thunderstorms, is during the morning hours. With that said, isolated shower activity could linger into the afternoon. Cooler northerly winds (gusting 15-25 mph, highest south of I-80) are expected on the back side of the departing surface low Wednesday PM.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Thursday-Monday, another shortwave to drop south in the northwest flow aloft on Thursday. Guidance continues to show largely dry conditions through the day Thursday, but areas east of the Mississippi River will have the potential for brief light precip. Looking at the environment, we are generally looking at isolated to widely scattered showers passing through the cyclonic flow overhead. Although, this is low confidence and PoPs remain <15%. Our higher confidence is with the cooler air that will advect in through Thursday, keeping temperatures near to slightly below normal through Saturday. High temperatures are expected to drop into the low- mid 40s, with nights in the 20s to around 30. A large area of high pressure builds over the region through the weekend, slowly tracking east into next week. While overhead, temperatures will remain near seasonal normals with light winds and dry conditions. As this tracks east into next week, temperatures will return to above seasonal normals, roughly in the 50s early next week. Dry conditions are currently expected to remain through the start of next week, owing to lacking moisture return.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1155 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Aviation forecast remains on track into Wednesday. High pressure will slide off to the east overnight as a compact area of low pressure tracks through Iowa into Illinois late into Wednesday AM. This system may bring some scattered showers (20-50%), and possible a isolated thunder, to areas north of BRL with low confidence on coverage due to a dry air mass in place. As the low quickly shifts to the east into the afternoon, northerly winds will increase and gust 15-20 kts. Ceilings are generally expected to remain at VFR through the period (as low as 3500-6000 ft AGL on Wednesday).

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.