textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold weather to continue through the earlier periods with a gradual warm up next week. Wind chills at night through the first half of the weekend will be very cold and well below zero.

- Flurries possible across much of the area today, and light snow trying to move in from the east may affect the IL side of the DVN CWA with a dusting.

- After today, the next snow chances will be on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Today...Looking at the latest water vapor(WV) imagery and upper air analysis, a rather vigorous vort lobe was seen acrs northeast MN and up into Manitoba. This wave complex slated to drop south acrs the local area this afternoon. This process will look to drag the upstream stratocu cloud decks acrs MN and WI down acrs the area today, as well as generate more clouds in any heating in clear patches as the day progresses. An H85 MB -20 to -23C cold pool dropping down acrs much of IA by this afternoon will also help with the diurnal cloud development. With the upper low digging down overhead, it should be able to generate some flurries out of any more substantial stratocu deck. Also, veering low to mid level flow profiles to the northeast should advect some lower stratocu toward the area off LK MI, also even some lake enhanced light snow may stream into the far east central to southeastern DVN CWA this afternoon and early evening. But the majority of latest deterministic and CAM runs suggest that this snow may have trouble making it this far or just effect Bureau and Putnam Counties. Will still keep at least low POPs from Freeport Il to just southeast of the Quad Cities area(QCA). If the snow makes it, just a dusting to few tenths of snow accum expected.

Taking into account the clouds and lower level cold pool dropping acrs the area, wonder if the loaded blend of high temps in the low to mid teens may be a bit optimistic but mixing profiles are decent and will let it ride for now. The mixing and tightening sfc pressure gradient will make for blustery north to northeast sfc winds by this afternoon.

Tonight...with the upper level system digging south and east of the local area, strong subsidence fields filling in behind it should make for clearing from north-to-south as the night progresses. This will set the stage for another cold night, but with the low to mid level flow actually warm air advecting from the northeast overnight is won't be as cold as it could be if the same vertical thermal profiles that occur today were to occur late tonight. Lower single digits above zero, with a few sub-zero readings in the northwest seem in line. But ongoing winds of 10-15 MPH will still make biting wind chills in the 10-15 below zero range by Sat morning...and a few areas pushing 20 below from Cedar Rapids on northwestward possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Saturday and Sunday...Saturday not a bad day with sfc ridge pressing acrs the area for lighter winds and some sunshine helping many area temps make it into the upper teens to lower 20s. Not quite as cold Sat night, and increasing south to southwesterly flow could boost Sunday highs into the mid to upper 20s. This ahead of an incoming clipper system dropping down southeastward acrs the upper MS RVR Valley and western GRT LKS through Monday morning. This feature will look to induce a pre-system warm air advection(WAA)wing of light snow down acrs the area Sunday and Sunday evening before moving off to the east by late Sunday night. With dry air to erode and overcome taking up a lot of the system's original lift to do so/saturate, the idea of this wing weakening some as it comes through looks on target. But the duration of lift and light snow, as well as PWAT's of 0.20 to 0.40 of an inch suggest a few spots could get a couple inches. The latest ECMWF has widespread 1 to 1.5 inches acrs the northeast half of the DVN CWA, with a few pockets of 2+ inches from Dubuque on up into western WI. The southwestern half of the CWA tails off to a half inch or less. Will continue to watch trends in the model runs of course, over the next few days but it currently looks like a standard light snow event of not much consequence.

Monday through Thursday...Looking at medium range ensembles and upper jet patterns for this period, it appears that while the west coast upper ridging maintains, the broad northwesterly steering flow acrs the central into eastern CONUS becomes split and not so ferocious with cold dumps down acrs the upper midwest. Thus the temperature regime looks more seasonable through this stretch. As for precip chances, with the local area possibly getting aligned under the split, most of the clipper and wave systems may miss the local area or just clip it. Will have to watch wave energy by mid week for inter-stream phasing which could lead to a more substantial system for portions of the local fcst area, but current runs phase it late enough that the bulk of it misses us late Tue into Wed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with some brief MVFR cigs/vsbys this afternoon. Winds will pick up later today and mainly be out of the north through the period. Gusts will lessen towards midnight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.