textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, breezy weather will be expected area-wide today.

- Elevated storms are possible Thursday night and again Friday night, with a marginal, level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms forecast by the SPC.

- Strong warm advection will result in above normal temperatures this weekend and beyond, with increasing chances for storms. The SPC currently outlooked our area in a 15% chance for severe weather, or level 2/5 risk, Saturday/Sunday/Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Much of the area will confidently see sunny skies today, along with breezy northwest winds of 10-15 mph, gusting to 20 to 30 mph. Cyclonic flow aloft, is drawing some moisture southward over Wisconsin this morning, and there is good support that this will brush through our northeastern counties (east of Dubuque to Sterling IL) with partly to mostly cloudy skies there today, potentially into the afternoon hours. This has me going towards cooler guidance in the east, and near the NBM mean in the central and western CWA, were sun is forecast. This more or less works out to mid 60s east to lower 70s central and west today. With winds generally under 15 mph early today, I don't expect any lofted dust to impact our area and this breezy day ahead should not reach levels to create another event upstream.

Tonight, near calm conditions are forecast with lows near 40 east to mid 40s central and west.

Thursday will see the high pressure move off to the east, and a notable increase in southerly winds will spread in from west to east during the day. For most, this will still be a very pleasant day, with highs in the lower 70s east to upper 70s west. Any threat for showers/storms will remain west of our area through early evening.

Thursday night into early Friday, strong WAA is forecast to spread over the region, with increasing moisture transport into Iowa and Missouri during the mid to late evening hours, likely resulting in a strong area of storms to our west/southwest. This activity will spread east, potentially into southern sections of the CWA overnight, with moderate instability over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and PWAT values over 1.25 (up to 1.65" is forecast by some model data). Pops are 60 to 80% over the southern 1/2 of the area, (highest south), which is supported by a thunderstorm track of the main storms over northern Missouri towards central Illinois. Rainfall could be over 0.5 in that event alone given the moisture, but the potential also exists that much of that event falls south of the southern counties too.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Morning showers and storms will move east and out of the area Friday morning, then we will be left with mostly clear skies Friday afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the lower to mid 80s. Additional showers and storms are possible Friday night into Saturday, as mainly supported by the deterministic EC consistently, as well enter a busy several days of the forecast into the weekend.

Saturday into Sunday, the pattern becomes more active throughout the region. A trof will dig in from the Pacific Northwest, deepening over the Rockies. This will induce strong southwesterly flow over the region Saturday through the start of the next work week. Temperatures above seasonal norms can be expected, with increasing moisture throughout. There remains some uncertainty on how high the temperatures will get through this timeframe, owing to cloud cover due to increased moisture, along with the NBM running hot. In either case, with increasing temperatures and moisture, instability will build throughout. Thus, all that is needed is some forcing for showers and storms to develop. Forcing will arrive to the area as early as Saturday evening/night, as a bout of vorticity pushes north through the area with a passing warm front. This will set the stage for storms Saturday night, some of which may be strong to severe. A brief look at available guidance would indicate the primary threat being elevated thunderstorms posing a hail threat into Sunday morning. Otherwise, lighting and brief heavy rain will also be a hazard that night, especially for anyone outside camping. More chances for showers/storms will remain through the day on Sunday, especially the afternoon and evening.

Sunday and beyond, the pattern remains the same, with more bouts of vorticity set to pass through the area. Thus, chances for precipitation will remain. SPC has highlighted much of our area in a Day 6 15% chance for severe weather, which equates to a Slight Risk for severe weather. This will be something to monitor over the coming days, especially as more hi-res guidance comes in. Overall, this just indicates that some storms that develop Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening, will have the chance to be strong/severe. There remains some uncertainty on where the aforementioned warm front will stall out. This will be important to watch, as wherever this sets up can be a focal point for heavier precipitation. In all, heavy precipitation will still be on the table due to rounds of showers/storms with each wave passing through. One thing to note is that this isn't looking like a complete washout at this time, with some dry time forecast between rounds of storms. Current locations that may see the best chances for rounds of precipitation will be along/north of Interstate 80. WPC has a broad area of 1.00-2.00" of rain forecast over the area, where much of that will fall Saturday night through Monday. Keep in mind that much can still change with this forecast. Otherwise, this will be a warm stretch of weather with widespread 80s possible. There remains much uncertainty on how high temperatures will get, as NBM continues to come in much warmer than the remainder of guidance (between the 90-99th percentile of guidance). The bulk of guidance generally keeps us around 80 during this timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

High pressure will bring another day of northwest winds to the area today with a pleasant VFR weather. Winds will gust through the mid day hours again, but then will back off to light north winds Wednesday evening. A few cumulus between 3000 and 4000 ft may approach DBQ in the next hour, before clear skies are in place there.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.