textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An active pattern continues this week with several storm systems passing near or over the area with some chances for precipitation. However, the overall precipitations will be light.

- If surface temperatures don't recover as forecast on Tuesday into Tuesday night, light freezing rain is possible across the area.

- Windy conditions are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- Another surge of arctic cold will settle into the Midwest for the end of the week and weekend. This arctic cold is be monitored for any potential cold headlines.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A weak shortwave trough continues to move across the area early this morning and producing clouds and a few flurries as it moves eastward across the area. Temperatures at 2 AM remain in the single digits above and below zero with light winds. Wind chills have been as low as -15.

This shortwave is forecast to exit to the east early this morning with winds turning to the south through the day. Today will not be as cold as yesterday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 20s.

Cloud cover will increase Monday night as another shortwave passes to our north and grazes are far northwest Illinois counties with light snow or flurries. Additionally, winds are forecast to strengthen tonights with gusts up to 20 knots and not much change in temperatures from today with lows in the upper teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 201 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Northwest flow aloft is forecast to continue across the region through the remainder of the long term period with several shortwaves/clippers passing through the area or nearby.

The shortwave from Monday night is forecast to shift to the east on Tuesday. There is some uncertainty with the forecast on Tuesday as winds turn to the south with speeds of 10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 20 MPH through the day. Models show considerable warming across the area on Tuesday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 30s along the Highway 20 corridor to the mid 40s in far northeast Missouri, far southeast Iowa, and west central Illinois. The NBM has 50 to 90 percent probabilities across the area over 40 degrees with the highest probabilities across the south. However, snow cover across the region may limit this warming with some models limiting high temperatures area wide to the 30s. There will also likely be a very shallow inversion across the area as well which may limit winds.

Another shortwave trough is forecast to move across the area Tuesday night and bring a cold front across the area by 12 UTC on Wednesday. Model soundings show another strong inversion across the area with very strong winds within the inversion. Model soundings do show this inversion mixing out behind the front with very deep mixing occurring across the area and the potential to access 50 to 65 knots in a 5000 to 7000ft layer if this mixing does occur. Increased winds Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the NBM 90th percentile winds with winds gusting to near 40 MPH especially Tuesday night.

Due to the temperature forecast, models have precipitation beginning as a mix before quickly changing over to all rain. Forecast rainfall amounts are light with most locations receiving a tenth of an inch or less. However, areas with snowpack will behave like the surface temperature is at freezing with some accumulation of ice possible. This will be something to keep an eye over the next couple of days.

Wednesday night through Thursday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on light accumulating snow occurring

All global models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. The Boehmke rule is satisfied, thus the precipitation will be in the form of snow.

In looking at the NBM 10-90th percentiles, the maximum water equivalent would be around 0.10 inches with a higher probability of it being less. With overnight temperatures expected to be in the teens, the snow has a higher probability of being the dry, fluffy type (i.e. rain/snow ratios greater than 12 to 1). In using the mean water equivalent of 0.03 inches, such a ratio would translate into just under an inch of accumulation for the likely max amount. Most areas would thus see a dusting of accumulation.

There are timing differences between the models which translates into on 30-50 percent chances for snow. I fully expect the snow chances to slowly increase as the week progresses.

The bulk of the snow looks to be during the day Thursday with snow beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday evening.

Friday through Sunday Assessment...a certainty (>99% confidence) of another arctic surge into the Midwest

The global models show another arctic surge into the Midwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. The trigger will be the passage of an arctic cold front either very late Thursday night or during the day on Friday.

The strength of the arctic surge associated with the front raises a strong potential for flurries or snow showers along with wind gusts of at least 30 mph. Right now the model consensus has Friday dry but I suspect this will change as the week progresses.

After the arctic front passes, well below normal temperatures will be seen Friday night through Sunday. The wind will be slow to diminish Friday night. The situation needs to be watched but the potential is there for cold headlines Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday. Of the two nights, the probability of a cold headline is higher for Friday night than it is for Saturday night.

The Friday night through Sunday time frame will be mainly dry. However, there is a weak upper level disturbance that will move through the area Saturday night that could produce light snow or flurries. This far out the signal is quite weak but the model consensus is generating 15 percent chances for light snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR cigs with the exception of DBQ are expected to last through 00z Tuesday. Expect cigs to lower into MVFR and possibly IFR late in the period. Winds tonight will be gusty in the mid 20 kt range, before a brief respite tomorrow. After 18z Tuesday, winds will increase again. DBQ could see some snow around 06z tonight, but confidence is low in occurring show has been left out at the current time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.