textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An elevated fire risk on Tuesday for the area with the greenup still slowly occurring.

- Scattered thunderstorms are forecast tonight mainly along and north of I-80, with a slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Southwest flow aloft will bring moisture into the Midwest with a high (>80%) probability of moderate to heavy rainfall Wednesday through Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A southwesterly low level jet is forecast to develop this evening across the area after 00 UTC (7 PM) with the best 850 MB convergence north of Interstate 80. Initially, model soundings show lots of dry air in the sub cloud layer with higher based storms. If storms can form between 7 and 10 MPH, this dry air in the subcloud layer will increase the chances of damaging winds gusts with any thunderstorms. The wind gusts threat will continue overnight as model soundings have inverted-V soundings and CAMs show wind gust potentail with any storms especially the HRRR. After 03 UTC (9 PM) some model soundings show the potential for storms to be elevated increasing the chance for large hail up to the size of a golfball especially if most unstable CAPE over 2000 J/KG is realized. There is lower confidence that storms will move southeastward or expand south of Interstate 80 tonight. Temperatures will remain mild overnight and be in the lower 60s The Slight Risk or level (2 out of 5) was expanded southward across the area and is now generally along and north of Interstate 80 with the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) expanded southward to the Iowa/Missouri border and eastward across parts of west central Illinois.

In the zonal flow aloft, models show a shortwave trough moving along the US/Canadian border and driving a cold front southeastward across the area on Tuesday afternoon. Convergence along the front will lead to showers and thunderstorms developing and moving southeastward across the area. Ahead of the front warm air and moisture will be in place with as much as 2000 J/KG of CAPE across the area with 30 knots of 0 to 6 km shear. In general, the severe threat will be lower on Tuesday than tonight. A marginal risk for severe storms is in place across the entire area on Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026 Wednesday through Sunday

An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of this week. Current ensemble forecasts indicate above-normal moisture transport from the Gulf into the region, with PWAT values ranging from the 75th to 99th percentiles Wednesday through Saturday. Total QPF Wednesday through Saturday is greatest south of I-80, with up to 75% chance of exceeding 2 inches of QPF. Given this is still 3-6 days out in the forecast, this area can shift/expand.

Multiple mechanisms will support rainfall associated with a central Plains low Wednesday through Thursday. Initially, a stalled cold front along northern Missouri to central Illinois will provide lift across at least the southern CWA, leading to showers on Wednesday. As the low continues to develop Wednesday night and move into southwestern Iowa, a LLJ will provide additional lift, leading to increased rainfall. The axis of greatest QPF has been trending northward into our area, with all of the area at 75% or higher chance of 1 inch or more.

Friday currently looks to be drier during the day, with rain chances returning Friday night into Saturday as an upper level trough moves through the area. QPF with this system is currently projected to be lighter than with the Wednesday-Thursday system, as moisture supply will not be as high. A cold front Saturday night will sweep away the remaining moisture plume, leading to a cool and dry Sunday, which may be welcome after such a wet week.

Antecedent dry conditions may prevent any flooding from successive days of rainfall, but we will have to watch if any areas receive multiple days of thunderstorms. The moisture-laden pattern does not favor a widespread severe weather threat at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Small cluster of convection in eastern Iowa will move into northern Illinois through 12z/31. Very short range models suggest the potential of convection firing on an outflow boundary into southeast Iowa and west central Illinois through 14z/31. LLWS concern continues through sunrise before ending. Cold front to sweep through after 17z/31 which should see a brief jump in wind speeds during the wind shift. Isolated to scattered convection to be mainly east of the Mississippi through 02z/01.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tuesday...

Additional moisture arriving on Tuesday will temper the drop in humidity levels. However, windy conditions along with warm temperatures ahead of the cold front will create an elevated fire risk.

CLIMATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record highs for March 31st....

Burlington.........82 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......81 in 1986 Dubuque............79 in 1986 Moline.............83 in 1986

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.