textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A blocked pattern will maintain a general northwest flow across the region for the first half of the period, with embedded waves and fronts combining with diurnal instability/heating to produce almost daily chances of precip in or near the forecast area.

- Warm up for Sunday into Monday, before cooling back down into mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Clouds have been stubborn and slow to dissipate along/south of I-80, and are holding temps up around 40 to near 45 degrees in many areas while to the north temperatures have quickly dropped into the 30s with even some favored cool drainage sites nearing 32 degrees. Anticipate increasing subsidence will foster a gradual decrease in clouds through daybreak, and with the light winds temperatures will have an opportunity to quickly drop from the 40s into the 30s south. As a result, I have left the Frost Advisory in effect until 8 AM for much of the area though confidence on frost will be highest near and north of I-80.

Otherwise, today is looking like a dry day with a mix of sun and clouds, and temperatures moderating slightly to near 60 or in the lower 60s as winds turn west/southwest by later this afternoon accompanied by a gradual increase in mid-level warm advection.

Tonight, a disturbance currently moving through Saskatchewan and Manitoba Provinces will dive southward and bring increasing clouds along with a chance for showers (20-40%) overnight into Sunday AM. The southwest winds and increase in clouds should lead to lows not as cold and mostly in the 40s. The attendant surface trough or weak cold front looks to be exiting Sunday afternoon. This will keep the focus for potentially any late day Sunday and nocturnal convection Sunday night, with an isolated marginal severe storm risk, to our south into parts of Missouri and south-central Illinois. A push of warmer air aloft and breezy westerly winds on Sunday will lead to highs well into the 60s to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

An unsettled pattern will remain largely in place for much of next week, as an Omega block builds into the western CONUS keeping our region predominantly under the influence of northwest flow aloft on the western flank of Great Lakes upper troughing. We'll look to stay rather active with near daily chances for precipitation between the multiple shortwaves being shuttled down across the region and the prevailing pocket of cold air aloft also fostering instability showers at times. Monday is anticipated to be a day with a higher coverage of showers with even a few storms as a cold front moves through. Modest CAPE (1000+ j/kg of MLCAPE) and 30+ kt of effective bulk shear could even support a couple of stronger storms with a hail and gusty wind threat south of I-80 by late afternoon and early evening on Monday. Temperatures throughout the week go from above normal in the 70s to near 80 on Monday to back below normal Tuesday through Thursday with highs mainly in the 50s to near 60 and nighttime lows in the 30s for some frost concerns, before a gradual warm-up occurs heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be light (10 kt or less) and become variable through early Saturday AM as a weak surface ridge moves in. Winds may become more prevailing from W/NW by mid to late Saturday AM then should back to S/SW by Saturday evening ahead of an approaching trough.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087-088-098. IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024. MO...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MOZ009.