textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances of showers (20-40%) and an isolated storm remains in the forecast for this afternoon through the evening, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. Some locally strong wind gusts to around 40 to 45 mph are possible.

- Periodic chances of showers and an isolated storm remains possible Friday and again Saturday night.

- A pleasant Mother's Day is expected, with mostly sunny skies and highs warming to the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Our region will remain under northwesterly cyclonic flow aloft around a large upper-level low centered around Hudson Bay Canada. Within this northwest flow, a compact mid-level shortwave trough will continue to progress eastward this afternoon into the evening hours over our region, keeping a chance of showers (20-40%) and isolated storms for portions of the area, mainly along and south of Interstate 80. A corridor of warm air advection over our southern CWA will help maintain these shower chances into the evening hours. Generally light rainfall (less than a tenth of an inch) is expected from these showers, with isolated areas seeing possibly up to a quarter to a half inch of total rainfall per the 07.12z HREF probability-matched mean value.

There should be a brief lull in the showers overnight once they diminish around/after midnight tonight before another shortwave crosses our southern CWA for Friday. A period of clear skies is expected tonight, but the clearing should be brief as a layer of higher clouds builds in near or just after midnight from the west. This should limit our frost potential tonight.

As the next compact shortwave traverses the area, the bulk of the large-scale forcing will be in the morning, and the latest CAMs suggest precip potential will be its highest south of I-80. There are some differences among the CAMs/global deterministic models on the coverage of precipitation, but it's possible the rain could stay even farther south (south of Highway 34). Rainfall with this should also remain pretty limited (less than a tenth of an inch), although some isolated higher amounts can't be ruled out. Some deep PBL mixing is possible yet again Friday, the wind through the column is expected to be much weaker, so gusts aren't expect to be anywhere near as strong as they were today under the showers. Persistent southwest flow at the surface should also result in highs warming to the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The upcoming Mother's Day weekend looks dry overall, with temperatures warming into the middle to upper 70s Saturday. We will continue to remain under the upper-level troughing, which will bring a few more mid-level shortwave impulses to the area. Saturday night appears to be the most favorable timing for additional showers, but model soundings suggest lots of dry air in the lower levels, which will limit accumulation amounts. Saturday could be a bit gusty as well, as the PBL is progged to deeply mix, with gusts to around 25 to 35 mph possible. Mother's Day Sunday is looking very pleasant, with seasonal temperatures and lots of sunshine!

For Monday through Wednesday next week, the weather pattern looks to remain active, with the primary focus being Monday night into Tuesday for a large upper-level trough to dive southeastward from Saskatchewan Canada towards the Midwest. This appears to be our most likely chances (40-70%) of widespread rainfall over the next seven days. This far out, there is some uncertainty on the timing of the trough and coverage of precipitation, given differences among the LREF cluster analysis and global deterministic guidance. Rainfall amounts from the NBM have steadily increased over the last several runs, so confidence is increasing for a wetting rainfall with this system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Largely VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period. The main focus for this TAF update continues to be on a line of showers, ranging from KGGI eastward toward KVYS (along the I-80 corridor). Although rainfall intensity has been light, resulting in minimal impacts to visibility, some locally strong wind gusts are expected with these showers as boundary layer mixing continues to deepen. This could result in surging air from the cloud bases down towards the surface. Wind gusts around 30 to 35 knots have already been observed today, and this threat of locally strong wind gusts will continue this afternoon/early evening. If mixing increases further, some localized gusts up to 40-45 knots can't be ruled out. Also, an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out either, which could also result in locally strong wind gusts, along with heavier rainfall that could lower visibilities. However, due to the very isolated nature of this storm potential, we have left out this mention in TAFs for now. The showers could linger into the evening hours, mainly near MLI before dissipating late this evening into early Friday morning as a higher level cloud deck builds in from the west.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.