textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure overhead will result in a beautiful start to the work week, with mostly clear skies and mild temperatures.

- Another active weather pattern will set up mid-late week, bringing the potential for rounds of showers and storms. Heavy rainfall may accompany these storms.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal norms through the next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 125 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

High pressure will remain overhead today, slowly shifting east tonight. As such, we will see a beautiful start to the work week. Dry conditions will be seen throughout, with light and variable winds. While some residual cloud cover will be seen in the AM hours, mostly clear conditions will prevail through the afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the low-mid 70s throughout, dropping into the 50s tonight. Enjoy the beautiful start to the work week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 125 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Trough over the eastern CONUS continues to break down through Tuesday/Wednesday, with the ridge that has been locked in place overhead tracking easterly. Upper level flow will then increase out of the southwest as a deep trof digs into the Desert Southwest. A strong fetch of moisture in connection with the Eastern Pacific will set up, directing an unseasonably moist airmass into the central CONUS. This increase in moisture is aided by tropical systems that will get caught in the flow from the Eastern Pacific, serving as a moisture conveyor into the region, with plenty of forcing to favor precipitation chances. Not only will this help supply moisture to the region, but llvl southerly/southwesterly flow will usher Gulf moisture in as well. Thus, an anomalously moist airmass will be in place through mid week, with PWATS between 1.50-2.00" or higher moving in. As such, the WPC has highlighted our area in a Slight Risk, level 2 of 4, for Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flooding through mid week.

The wave digging into the Desert Southwest will slowly traverse over the Rockies, guiding bouts of energy towards the Upper Mississippi River Valley, with a baroclinic zone setting up nearby. This baroclinic zone will serve as a focus for the potential for rounds of showers/storms, with heavy rainfall possible. There remains uncertainty on where this zone of heavier precipitation will set up, but we have noted a northwesterly trend in this rainfall axis over the last 24 hours. This trend has shifted the axis of heaviest precipitation out of our area at this time, but keeps it close to our northwest. Along with the shift in the heavy rainfall axis, the timing for us has also trended later over recent forecast runs. We were initially looking at the potential first round of showers/storms moving in Tuesday night, but we are now looking at potential onset closer to the Wednesday AM timeframe. These precipitation chances will largely remain roughly along and north of a line from Sigourney to Dubuque, Iowa, with the better and more widespread rainfall chances moving in Wednesday night through Thursday (60-80% chances). Through this two-day stretch, WPC continues to favor a widespread 1.00-2.00" of rain for our area, with locally higher amounts possible in eastern Iowa. There remains uncertainty in these amounts, as ensemble guidance generally favors 1.00" or more of rain with about 30-50% probabilities. Probabilities are higher with the Euro suite, but they remain an outlier at this time. We will continue to monitor trends in the forecast, especially as more hi-res guidance comes in.

Late this week and into the weekend, zonal to northwest flow will set up over the region. We might see some weak waves work through the flow, but much uncertainty remains on moisture availability. Guidance has trended drier through the weekend than in previous runs, with chances between 15-30% at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much, if not all, of the TAF period. High pressure overhead will lead to light and variable winds through Monday, with decreasing cloud cover after 12z. Between 06-12z, we will see some lower clouds and mist move into CID/DBQ. We may see some brief reductions in vis around 5 SM, but currently expect cigs to remain >3000 ft. Although, there will be the chance for lower cigs to work in, but confidence is low. Will monitor and amend if necessary. Otherwise, sig wx is not expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.