textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Aside from some decaying showers this morning, high pressure will settle in and bring a period of quiet and dry weather through Monday.

- Another active weather pattern will set up in the middle of the upcoming work week, bringing the potential for rounds of showers and storms. Heavy rainfall may accompany these storms.

- Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal norms through the next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Weak wave passing through our area early this morning will continue to bring light showers to areas south and west of the Quad Cities. Although, showers will end and leave most dry by noon today, owing to upper level confluence helping to decay the passing wave. This will slowly push the wave south of the area through the day, with remnant cloud cover being the main sign of a passing system.

Upper ridge will start to break down through the day as well, as energy associated with the deep trof over the eastern CONUS pushes farther inland. This will not only weaken the ridge overhead, but allow the surface high pressure over the Great Lakes Region to build westward towards our area. As a result, drier air will work in from the east, resulting in more breaks in the cloud cover as we get later in the day. Areas east of the Mississippi River will have the greatest decrease in cloud coverage, allowing temperatures to warm into the low 70s. Areas that continue to see more clouds than sun will remain in the mid 60s. Although, we are looking at a nice fall day for the most part, especially through the afternoon. As we go into the overnight hours, more areas will start to lose cloud cover by Monday AM, resulting in temperatures a few degrees cooler than the previous nights.

Going into Monday, we will remain under the influence of high pressure with dry air continuing to advect in. As a result, mostly clear skies will be seen as we approach the afternoon hours. This will allow temperatures to increase into the low-mid 70s throughout, with a light breeze.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

The persistent trof over the eastern CONUS will start to break down through the first half of the work week, with the ridge that has been locked in place overhead finally starting to track easterly. As this shifts east, upper level flow becomes southwesterly as a trof digs into the southwestern CONUS. This long fetch of southwesterly flow will have a connection to the Eastern Pacific, where we have tropical systems in place. This pattern will help guide these systems northeast into the central CONUS, serving as a moisture conveyor into the region. Not only will this help supply moisture to the region, but llvl southerly/southwesterly flow will usher Gulf moisture in as well. Thus, an anomalously moist airmass will be in place through mid week, with PWATS between 1.50-2.00" moving in.

The wave over the Rockies will also guide bouts of energy into the Upper Mississippi River Valley, with a baroclinic zone setting up nearby and serving as a focal point for precipitation chances. Thus, with plenty of moisture and forcing moving into the area, precipitation chances will be on the rise again. The first round of showers and storms may work into parts of the area as early as Tuesday night, with persistent PoPs remaining through Wednesday and Thursday. There remains much uncertainty with the individual storm tracks and timing though, with the location of the baroclinic zone also uncertain. Thus, will largely message that we will see chances for showers/storms through at least the middle of next week, with the potential for heavy rainfall as well. As such, the WPC has highlighted our area in a Day 4/5 Slight Risk, level 2 of 4, for Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flooding. Stay tuned on upcoming forecasts for updates on timing and potential amounts as confidence increases. Late week and into the weekend, guidance favors a continuation of the active weather, with PoPs persisting.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A slow moving, weak mid/upper level disturbance will bring widespread rain showers to east central and southeast Iowa through 15Z today. This area of rain, and largely VFR cigs with MVFR visibilities in rain will brush the CID and BRL areas through mid morning before ending, and returning to consistently VFR conditions. Otherwise, MLI and DBQ will be quiet, and VFR through the entire period with light to variable east winds under 10 kts.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.