textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy Sunday, with an elevated fire danger risk in the afternoon.

- Near record highs Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the 70s most locations.

- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather Tuesday south of I-80.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

The storms that rolled through late evening and early this morning brought more beneficial rain to the region. The highest totals for this round of storms were along the Hwy 20 corridor in IA and along and south of the Hwy 34 corridor in IL. Both areas received 1.50-2.25" of rain, which should help improve at least some of the drought conditions in these areas. A return back to more seasonable conditions for early March occurred this morning behind the fropa. Noon temperatures were only in the mid 30s/low 40s, which is 20-25 degrees colder than this time yesterday. Breezy northwest winds gusting over 30 mph at times added insult to injury dropping wind chills around or just below freezing this morning. Temperatures have been nearly steady today thanks in part to strong CAA and extensive low stratus that has remained due to a strong inversion around 915mb per our 18z DVN sounding.

Rest of Today/Tonight...surface ridge to slide east across IA with breezy winds subsiding around sunset. Clouds will also begin to diminish from west to east a few hours after sunset. Winds will turn southwesterly remaining over 7kts, limiting any fog formation tonight. Lows to drop into the lower 30s.

Sunday...return flow quickly develops, with breezy southwest winds at the surface and westerly winds at 850mb ushering in warmer air (850mb temps warming to near 10C by 00z Monday) Plentiful sunshine and daytime mixing to around 875mb per forecast soundings to boost afternoon temps into the mid to upper 60s along with winds gusting around 30mph primarily in the afternoon. These conditions will quickly dry out the BL leading to an elevated risk of fire danger. Despite the recent rain, afternoon GFDI values increase into the Very High range south of I-80. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Monday-Tuesday...zonal flow aloft to turn southwesterly as a southern stream closed low moves east and another shortwave moves across the northern Rockies. Very warm temperatures aloft (850mb temps 12-13C or near the daily Max per SPC climatology) and deep mixing support near record highs in the upper 60s to low 70s during the period. See climate section for specific numbers. A weak surface low and associated boundary will form across IA on Monday, but with forecast soundings and 1000-700mb RH progs showing a very dry atmosphere I am not expecting any precipitation until Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Severe Potential

A lead southern stream shortwave ejecting out in the diffluent flow aloft will aid in moisture transport advecting into the area. A surface low to track along a boundary from northern KS across IA on Tuesday, which will be a focus for storm development. At this time, the highest joint probabilities (30-50%) of available CAPE and shear are south of I-80 and SPC has a slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe weather in this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday and into early Wednesday and more details on severe risk will be made available in the coming days.

Wednesday-Friday...breezy and colder Wednesday behind departing system will bring us once again back closer to seasonable temperatures in the upper 40s/mid 50s. Mostly dry and cooler conditions are forecast ahead of the next clipper type system diving southeast out of Canada Thursday night-Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. The main concern will be winds. Initially, LLWS will be the concern after 08z through 14z, as winds increase to 40-45+ kt near 2kft agl from the WSW. SSW surface winds will be gradually increasing, but generally around 10-12 kt by 12z with some sporadic gusts to 20+ kt. The LLWS will abate by 14z-15z as surface winds gust more consistently from the SW at 20-30 kt throughout the rest of the day Sunday, and after a brief decrease/lull around sunset expect gustiness to ensue with the nocturnal LLJ ramping.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 9: KBRL: 74 in 1986 KCID: 68 in 2021 KDBQ: 65 in 1977 KMLI: 71 in 2021

March 10: KBRL: 76 in 1955 KMLI: 74 in 1955

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.