textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A pronounced warm-up with well above normal temperatures will commence Sunday and continue into early next week before cooling down again.

- After a dry weekend, there is low (<25%) confidence on precipitation occurring next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The low cloud cover that moved into the area this morning has prevented deep mixing of the atmosphere. As a result, winds and peak gusts have been lower that initially thought.

Clouds will clear from north to south through sunset leaving mostly clear skies overnight as high pressure moves into the western Great Lakes.

On Saturday the high will begin moving into the Ohio Valley allowing winds to slowly become more southerly in the afternoon.

Temperatures over the next 36 hours will be seasonable but highs should average above normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Saturday night through Monday night Assessment...a certainty of above normal temperatures

After a seasonably cool Saturday night, the well advertised warm-up commences Sunday and continues into the first half of the work week. Temperatures are progged to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal Monday as the thermal ridge builds north into the eastern half of the CONUS. How warm it gets the first part of next week is highly dependent upon when a frontal passage occurs.

There is a 30-40 percent probability of temperatures reaching or exceeding 60s degrees in far northeast Missouri Monday.

Tuesday through Friday Assessment...high (>70%) confidence of above normal temperatures. Low (<25%) confidence on precipitation chances.

The thermal ridge building into the eastern CONUS is part of a broader pattern change across the northern hemisphere. The global models continue to show the 10 hPa mean winds at 60 N latitude decreasing with stratospheric temperatures rising. While not a classic SSW (sudden stratospheric warming), it does point to further pattern changes starting late in the week and into next weekend. Indeed all global models are showing 500 hPa anomalies de-amplifying the thermal ridge over the eastern CONUS with negative anomalies slowly developing along the west coast.

At the lower latitudes there is high pressure over the eastern Gulf. While return flow is occurring across the western Gulf into the southern states, the overall flow pattern eventually advects the bulk of the moisture into the Ohio Valley. This raises questions on the viability of any system being able to produce precipitation across the area.

Several deterministic runs of the global models along with the ECMWF- AIFS and AIGFS are essentially dry through the week. The only exception is Wednesday night into Thursday when a system moves through the area but there are timing differences. The CMC global is the most aggressive in developing precipitation with the GFS the least. The UKMET/ECMWF are in between, generating a little precipitation but not much. The CMC global being the most aggressive in precipitation generation also is colder with the precipitation being mainly snow.

Given the pattern change occurring, the models (especially the ensembles) are vacillating regarding the sensible weather and precipitation chances.

For Tuesday, the model consensus has turned dry for Tuesday morning with 20-30 percent chances for rain in the afternoon and 30-40 percent chances Tuesday night.

Wednesday through Friday shows the differences in how the models are handling the return flow coming off the Gulf. The GFS/CMC deterministic runs are dry but have some ensemble members bring precipitation into the area. The Wednesday through Friday time frame is being influenced more by the the ECMWF and ICON models. Both deterministic runs are slower by 12-18 hours with the mid-week system (which is also progged to have snow) but more of their respective ensemble members have precipitation.

As a result, the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of precipitation in each period from Wednesday through Friday with some of it potentially being snow. Now while there is a risk of precipitation during this time frame, there is a higher probability of dry weather occurring than wet weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Considerable low level mechanical turbulence will be seen through 00z/07 with wind gusts up to 30 knots across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. After 00z/07 winds will slowly drop below 10 knots as high pressure moves from the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.