textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions combined with low humidity levels and dried vegetation will result in elevated fire weather conditions along/west of the Mississippi River today.

- Critical fire conditions are anticipated on Saturday for portions of the area; a Red Flag Warning has been issued to the west/northwest of the Quad Cities.

- Another significant warm-up will commence again this weekend and into the first part of next week.

- A pattern change at the end of the month will create southwest flow aloft along with better prospects for some rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Dry and windy conditions are expected for the next several days which will result in elevated or even critical fire weather conditions. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, messaging the elevated fire weather conditions across the western third or so of the outlook area with a Special Weather Statement. In this area, NW winds are gusting 25-35+ mph and RH has dropped into the ~30 to 40% range. Winds will quickly subside early tonight as high pressure moves overhead, leading to cold conditions with lows in the low/mid 20s area-wide. We held off on any freeze headlines at this time with areas south of our outlook area being further along in the spring green-up.

On Saturday, a very dry air mass and developing gusty S/SSW winds will lead to critical fire weather conditions west/northwest of the Quad Cities and elevated conditions elsewhere. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of eastern Iowa for late Saturday morning through the evening. Please see the Fire Weather section below for more details.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Sunday through Monday

The upper high over the western CONUS will flatten and move east over the weekend and early next week signaling the start of a pattern change. As the upper high moves east, southerly flow will bring warmer than normal temperatures into the area along with higher dew points. Humidity levels slowly climb Sunday through Monday and thus, won't result in an elevated fire risk. However, the situation will need to be watched given the overall drought conditions across the area.

Monday night through Thursday Assessment...Low to medium (25-40%) confidence regarding rain chances.

The model consensus has a daily chance of rain from Monday night through Thursday. Interestingly, the deterministic solutions are drier than the ensemble means of the global models.

The pattern aloft will have shifted to southwest flow so moisture aloft will be able to flow into the area. Low-level moisture will, in time, arrive with the Gulf open.

Warm advection aloft may be able to trigger some isolated to low-end scattered (20-30%) convection each day, but the better rain chances look to be timed to the passage of a cold front Tuesday, and potentially Wednesday night into Thursday, when another system moves through the Midwest.

The model consensus pops (which appear too high) generally have a 25 to 50 percent chance for rain Monday night through Thursday. The exceptions are Tuesday night and Wednesday night where the model consensus has a 50-60% chance of rain.

Tuesday afternoon/evening could be quite interesting. The timing of the cold front will be the critical factor regarding the potential for any severe storms. Some of the machine learning sites are already suggesting a potential for severe storms. Moisture may initially be on the low side, but there is a respectable moisture plume coming from the Gulf to allow storm development.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. The focus will remain on winds, as ongoing gusty northwest flow will gradually weaken this evening. An area of high pressure will keep skies SKC overnight, with light and variable winds. Southerly flow will then develop and strengthen in the wake of the departing high, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots expected area- wide Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Southerly winds will quickly increase Saturday morning through midday, gusting 25-35 mph through the afternoon and evening. The southerly flow will advect a warmer air mass into the region; however, the low-levels will remain very dry with afternoon dewpoints only in the teens to upper single digits (lowest NW of the Quad Cities). These dewpoint values are in the 10th-25th percentile range of the NBM. The dry air mass and ambient temperatures in the 50s will yield min relative humidity values between 15-25%, again lowest west/northwest of the Quad Cities. Forecast GFDI values are in the very high to near extreme category and are very sensitive to slight changes to forecast wind speeds and min RH, so it's important not to focus on the exact values. It's possible the Red Flag Warning may have to be expanded to the east in later updates, but for now have issued it where confidence is the highest. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged on Saturday as any fires that develop would quickly spread out of control.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Saturday for IAZ040- 041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087. IL...None. MO...None.