textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick-moving system will bring mainly an inch or less of snow to the southern portions of the area tonight. There is a low chance (less than 20%) of drizzle/freezing drizzle to develop along and south of Highway 34 after the snow tapers off tonight.

- Windy, very warm, and dry conditions Friday will result in an elevated fire weather risk, mainly south and east of a line from Dubuque, IA to Williamsburg, IA.

- Split flow over the CONUS that favors northwest flow will be seen through the weekend. Weak systems in the flow will bring the prospects of some precipitation to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

After a dry afternoon, with temperatures warming to the upper 20s north to middle 40s south, a quick-moving system is expected to sweep across the southern outlook area beginning this evening, lasting through much of the overnight hours. The culprit is a mid- level open-wave trough, along with enhanced 850-700 mb layer warm air advection (WAA). FGEN forcing will be associated with the WAA, which should produce a fairly narrow band of light snow. The area most likely to see accumulating snow is along and south of Interstate 80. The onset timing of the snow remains uncertain as plenty of dry air is currently in place, so this will need to be eroded by top-down saturation. The 25.12z HREF ensemble soundings do suggest that this will occur, with snowfall rates generally less than a quarter inch per hour (rates in excess of this is possible at times between 10 PM and 4 AM tonight). One thing to watch for tonight, mainly for areas along and south of Highway 34, is the potential for a loss of saturation in the ice-bearing layer aloft with lingering moisture below the dendritic growth zone, so there is the potential for some drizzle or even freezing drizzle in the wake of the snow. This could cause a light glaze of ice, especially on untreated surfaces. As for snow, amounts should generally be an inch or less for most, given the signal in the latest ensembles (HREF exceedance probabilities of 1" of total snow is around 20-50% - highest from Williamsburg, IA southeast towards Macomb, IL). For now, we'll hold off on any headlines for snow and icing. Overnight lows should fall to the upper teens along the Highway 20 corridor to the upper 20s south of Highway 34.

Overnight precipitation should be ended by sunrise Thursday morning, although any lingering snow or ice on the roads could generate some slick spots for the commute, so make sure to use extra caution on the roadways Thursday morning. Additionally, there are some signals for lingering saturation in the low-levels farther north after the wave moves off to the east, so there is potential for the drizzle/freezing drizzle to linger a little longer than 6 AM. However, there's very little lift in the saturated layer, and ensemble probabilities of this drizzle occurring goes even lower (less than 10%), so will keep out of the forecast for now. Otherwise, Thursday will see decreasing cloud cover as drier air filters in from the west. Southwesterly flow will develop, leading to temperatures warming to the lower 40s to lower 50s for most spots.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Subsidence associated with the upper level jet will keep skies clear Thursday night through Friday, allowing temperatures to warm into the high 50s to mid 60s by Friday afternoon. Combined with gusty SW winds and relative humidity in the 30-40% range, elevated fire weather risk will be likely across the southeastern half of the CWA. Friday night remains dry as a cold front brings seasonable temperatures back once again.

Two precipitation chances are possible this weekend. The first comes on Saturday as a weak upper level disturbance passes to the north. The greatest chance for a band of light snow is expected north of Interstate 80, as PoPs in this region increase up to 60% in the ensembles.

The second of these chances is Sunday midday into overnight. An embedded shortwave supported with rising motion from the low level jet will allow for potentially widespread precipitation, with PoPs 30-60% chance, highest in the southern half of the CWA.

Monday into Tuesday will remain seasonably cool, with chances for another system into Tuesday. However, a wide spread of ensemble members and models brings into question the track and potential for precipitation this system may bring.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions were observed across the area as high pressure builds. Some higher level clouds will filter in this afternoon ahead of a weak clipper system that will sweep through the southern portions of the area this evening into the overnight hours. Light accumulating snow is expected, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 80. Snow should be more of the wet, heavy variety, with a brief period of snowfall rates between a quarter to a half inch per hour (mainly between 04-08z tonight). BRL looks to be most likely to be impacted by this system, which could also generate some FZDZ in the wake of the snow. MVFR/IFR conditions are expected, mainly for BRL and possibly CID and MLI. DBQ appears to miss the precipitation and sub-VFR conditions entirely where drier air will prevail.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.