textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms remains in effect for much of the area through this evening (4-10 PM). Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary threats. Flash flooding is also possible in areas that have received repeated rounds of heavy rain over the last several days.

- Rounds of cold fronts pushing down across the region will make for seasonally cooler air across the area for much of the week ahead with highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in 50s to low 60s.

- There may be a few showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday but the next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms still appears to be on Wednesday as wave energy arrives in northwest flow aloft.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

It appears there may only be isolated to widely sctrd showers and storms acrs the area until the low level jet(LLJ) and approaching short wave trof/MCV acrs far southwest IA/NW MO edges closer. This may produce an uptick in storm development after 7 or 8 PM on the incoming main front as well as lingering outflow boundaries. There still will be some chance for a severe storm producing 60 MPH winds and large hail, but it may be more of a marginal set-up as opposed to the ongoing Slight Risk. Locally heavy downpours will still be a factor and will have to watch for slow or repeated storm movement across recent heavy rainfall hard hit areas. Areas south of I-80 still appear more favorable for stronger storm cells this evening until possibly around midnight/1 AM when they should clear off to the east and south with the short wave passage.

Cold front passage and increasing boundary layer northwesterly flow/cooler advection will result in low temps ranging from the low 60s in the southeast, to the low to mid 50s in the northwest.

Sunday to be a breezy post-frontal day with northwesterly sfc winds gusting up to 30 MPH. With extent of lowered thicknesses advecting into the area, even deep mixing supports highs only in the low to mid 70s. Do expect some ambient cumulus development of scattered to broken coverage which may make for more widespread lower 70s as opposed to some mid 70 values. Seasonably cool night in store for Sunday night into Monday morning with a clear out and sfc wind decouple...lows in the lower 50s to even some upper 40s in the north. May have to keep some valley and ground fog in mind for early Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Monday looks to be dry and below normal temp-wise(mid to upper 70s) as a surface high pressure moves well south of the region. This will occur as a broad, deep upper trof shifts a bit farther southwest into the upper Great Lakes. Eventually this upper trof will bring several short waves through our region, in northwest flow aloft.

While our forecast will remain a cooler than normal, this energy aloft is expected to bring several bouts of showers and storms through the region through mid next week. Strong to severe storms may again be on tap for Wednesday. High amounts of CAPE are certainly not expected, but northwest flow in June can often bring hail threats in storms, due to the cooler air aloft. This will need to be watched as a threat in the extended, but in general, this week offers less heavy rain potential with moisture transport distanced rather far away from the region, and each passing wave will shunt this southeast before it tries to return ahead of the next wave. It does look active, but this moisture transport would certainly favor a more southern track for heavy rains, in Missouri and points south. Highs in the 70s Thursday may moderate into the lower 80s for Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

With a frontal system pushing into the area from the northwest, there will be the chance of isolated to sctrd thunderstorms ahead of it mainly along and south of I-80 through Midnight or so. Further north it will be more post-frontal type lighter showers affecting the CID and DBQ sites this evening. Wind trends will be south to southwest to the south of I-80, and then veering to the northwest at CID and DBQ as the evening progresses and the FROPA occurs. Thus varying bouts of VFR to IFR with these trends and BRL the most likely site to get impacted by stronger storms mid to late evening and bouts of reduced VSBYs and possible varying higher wind gusts. Later tonight into early Sunday morning as the post-frontal regime takes over with northwesterly sfc winds of 10-15 KTs, VSBYs and CIGs will all improve to VFR levels. Sunday will be a mainly VFR day with breezy north to northwest sfc winds of 15 to 25 KTs. Expect ambient CU to form to SCT and BKN coverage levels, but should be at VFR heights by the time they do. Winds to start to drop off toward the end of the TAF fcst period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.