textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for portions of the area through mid/late morning.

- Strong cold front remains on track to sweep through the area this evening into early Wednesday, bringing much colder temperatures for mid to late week.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of the outlook area from late tonight into Wednesday. West to northwest wind gusts between 40 to 50 mph are expected.

- A wintry system is possible late Friday into the weekend, with additional systems beyond that, making for a busy weather pattern. Uncertainty remains with the timing and impacts from the weekend system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

This Morning: Areas of fog, dense at times will continue through this morning across the outlook area. Conditions will be slow to improve with a weak area of low pressure over the region leading to light and variable winds, and little boundary layer mixing.

This Afternoon Trough Wednesday:

A potent shortwave will track from the Northern Plains into the Midwest today, leading to a deepening surface low across Wisconsin into the northern Great Lakes region. This system will drag a strong cold front through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois late this afternoon into early tonight, resulting in windy conditions overnight through Wednesday with gusts between 40 to 50 mph. These values are slightly below the NBM 50th percentile max gusts, so some 50+ mph gusts may be possible. Forecast HRRR/RAP soundings show 50+ kts near the top of the mixed layer (~850-900mb) late tonight through Wednesday AM. Continued mixing in the boundary layer, combined with isentropic downglide in strong low-level cold air advection should result in efficient downward momentum transfer to the surface. Thus confidence is high on peak gusts exceeding 45 mph for most of the outlook area, with the highest chances for 50+ mph to the north of I-80. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire outlook area, except for far NE Missouri, for late tonight and through most of Wednesday.

The strong winds will advect a much colder air mass into the region, leading to early Wednesday AM wind chills in the teens. For high temperatures, expect a significant drop from the low/mid 50s today to the mid/upper 30s on Wednesday. There is also potential for some light snow across the north tonight, especially north of I-80 as moisture wraps around to the soutwest of the compact surface low/trough shifting across Wisconsin. QPF amounts will remain light; however, with temperatures falling below freezing, minor accumulations of a dusting to under 1 inch are possible.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving and Friday: It will continue to be on the chilly side, with low temperatures each morning in the teens to lower 20s. Coupled with the winds, wind chills will fall to the teens area- wide, and even some single digits are possible across our north. However, this period looks to stay dry.

We continue to monitor a wintry system slated to move through the area Friday night through the Thanksgiving weekend, which could bring widespread accumulating snow to the region. There remains a lot of uncertainty on how this system will evolve as there are questions about where the baroclinic zone will set up and on the track and strength of the surface low. For the late Friday night into Saturday night period, the NBM 24-hr probabilities for 1" or more of snow are between 60% - 90%, and for 2"+ between 50% - 70%. Make sure to keep up with the latest forecast if you have travel plans this weekend as we will be able to provide more specifics over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CST Tue Nov 24 2025

Poor aviation conditions expected tonight into Tuesday with low overcast and areas of fog, dense at times. The low ceilings and dense fog will lead to periods of LIFR/VLIFR. Occasional drizzle or patchy light rain is expected overnight. Minimal low- level mixing will result in a slow improvement in ceilings and visibilities through mid/late Tuesday AM into the afternoon, with an eventual return to MVFR anticipated. DBQ may be the exception, holding on to IFR through the afternoon. A cold front set to move through in the late afternoon and evening will bring strong W/NW wind gusts into Tuesday night (30-35+ kts).

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>067-076>078-087-088-098. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ILZ001-002- 007. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ015-024>026-034-035. Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-016>018. MO...None.