textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mixing of the atmosphere will allow humidity levels to drop significantly again this afternoon. Refer to the fire weather section for more information.

- The probability of frost tonight is 50-60%. If skies clear out this evening then frost headlines would be needed for most areas north of an Ottumwa, IA to Princeton, IL line.

- Daily disturbances in the northwest flow raises the prospects of diurnal showers Thursday and Friday. More substantial systems Saturday night into Sunday and again Monday night into Tuesday may bring some rain to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Another upper level disturbance will move through the area today keeping high level clouds across the area.

Forecast soundings depict the nocturnal inversion will break mid to late morning which will result in another day of breezy conditions. The result of the mixing will be humidity levels dropping during the late morning and afternoon. Refer to the fire weather section for more information.

Tonight winds become light after sunset and temperatures will drop. The question is will there be frost. The key to frost will be if the high level clouds clear. Some solutions say yes while others say no. Will pass on these concerns to the next shift but the probability of frost headlines are 50-60% for tonight.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Thursday through Friday night Assessment...Low confidence (20-30%) on rain chances. A certainty (>95%) of cooler than normal temperatures

Thursday and again on Friday upper level disturbances will move through the area. These disturbances are progged to be stronger so if there is sufficient moisture available, isolated to low end scattered (20-30%) diurnal showers may occur.

The potential negative for both days is the amount of mixing that occurs in the lower atmosphere. Forecast profiles of the atmosphere point to good low level mixing occurring on Thursday and to a lesser extent on Friday. If deep mixing of the lower atmosphere occurs, low level humidity levels would again drop Thursday and potentially result in no showers occurring. With the progged mixing not as great on Friday, showers would be possible. Interestingly, mid-level lapse rates become fairly steep Friday afternoon which raises the potential for isolated thunderstorms.

Right now the model consensus has 15-25% pops for Thursday afternoon. The Friday disturbance is a little stronger and has an associated surface low with it. Thus the model consensus is higher with the rain chances at 25-50% with the better chances east of the Mississippi.

Saturday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of above normal temperatures

Southerly flow that develops Friday night will continue and strengthen on Saturday ahead of the next system. The net result will be a dry day with temperatures well above normal.

Saturday night through Tuesday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of temperatures trending above normal

The first of two systems will move through the area Saturday night/Sunday. Overall moisture is marginal but the addition of a weak surface low should allow at least some showers and storms to develop.

The model consensus has 20-50% pops with the better chances along/east of the Mississippi. The best chances for any rain generally look to be late Saturday night when the low moves through the area with rain ending Sunday morning. Given the limited moisture, expected rainfall will be 0.10 inch or less.

Sunday night/Monday will be the relatively cooler time period as high pressure quickly moves through the Midwest resulting in dry conditions.

Monday night/Tuesday the next system is progged to move through the Midwest. Unlike the previous system, this system is more moisture starved. While the Gulf eventually opens up, its moisture gets shunted into the Ohio Valley after the system moves through the local area. Thus there are questions regarding the potential for rain. This is reflected in the overall pops being just 20% for Monday night and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Frontal boundary moving into Missouri and central Illinois has turned winds to a northernly component and under 10 knots. Mixing of the atmosphere will allow an increase in winds with gusts up to 20 knots after 15z/06. Starting around 00z/07 winds will again drop to under 10 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 203 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A passing upper level disturbance will allow deep mixing of the atmosphere to occur from late morning through the afternoon. As a result, humidity levels are currently forecast to drop into the 25-30% range. If the mixing is more extensive than forecast, humidity levels could drop to 20-25%.

Given the green-up that has occurred across the area, no elevated fire risk is anticipated. However, given the low humidity and winds gusting up to 25 mph today, any outdoor burning should be delayed or postponed.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.