textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Blustery colder post-frontal day today with light rain and snow.

- Breezy and warmer Thursday with elevated fire danger.

- Next rain chance Thursday night with some possible snow mix in the north.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Today...As the troublesome low pressure and frontal system sweep eastward through the GRT LKS, our area will experience a blustery, cooler post frontal day bathed in incoming high pressure gradient. BUFKIT mixing layer suggests northwesterly sfc winds gusting 25 to 35 MPH today. There will still be some elevated showers and a few embedded thunderstorms moving acrs the southeast third to quarter of the DVN CWA through mid morning, while an upstream isentropic lift band of precip currently acrs southwestern NE up through northwest WI, sweeps in from the west-northwest by mid morning. This band may be initially mainly light rain, but top-down and dynamical cooling will transition most of it into light snow as the morning progresses. Occurring during the daylight and mild ground surfaces should limit any wet snow accumulations to grassy and elevated surfaces, with most areas getting a half inch or less. The precip will look to shrivel up and move out off to the east as the afternoon progresses. With cold advection and clouds/light precip for much of the day, see 12 Hour high temps struggling to get into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Tonight...Passing sfc high and ridge lobe aloft will try to scour clouds out from west to east during the late afternoon and evening. With clear skies and decreasing sfc winds, the freshly arrived lower thickness boundary layer temps will cool off into the mid to upper 20s at the sfc for overnight lows. Will bank on enough sfc wind maintenance of at least 5 KTs to limit fog development acrs the recent heavy rainfall swaths, but it may still have to be kept in mind.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Thursday and Friday...The latest suite of ensembles are in good agreement of suggesting the sfc ridge moving off early, allowing tightening cyclonic LLVL pressure gradient and strengthening southerly sfc winds acrs the area as the day progresses. This process southeast of a vigorous clipper system targeting northwest MN by Thu evening. Early look at mixing profiles suggest wind gusts could range from 35 to over 40 MPH by Thu afternoon, especially acrs eastern IA into far NW IL. This with dry down mixing sfc DPTs and humidity will make for an elevated fire danger by Thu afternoon again mainly in IA and far NW IL. Mixing and WAA will translate into Thu highs in the upper 40s northeast, to the mid 50s southwest.

The strong clipper low possibly deepening to sub-985 MB levels acrs northern LK MI by Friday morning will continue to be a wind machine acrs the western GRT LKS into Friday. Besides a breezy night, this feature will sweep a band of mainly light rain acrs much of the area into Friday morning, with a possible mix of wet snow in the northeast third by late night. Most precip amounts Thu night should be 0.15 of an inch or less, with the higher amounts north of Hwy 30. Temps held up overnight until the FROPA which leads to temps in the 30s again by sunrise Friday. Blustery and colder FRiday on another post-frontal day with highs mainly in the 40s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Longer range ensembles and upper jet trends suggest the potential for a stronger low pressure system to develop acrs the Midwest somewhere, with a classic early March cyclone scenario of severe storms on the system's southern flank and winter storm conditions on it's north and northwestern side. Will be a system to watch for phasing and timing on Sunday into Monday. Whatever system that can evolve and effect the region, as it exits there are signs of a nice cold dump out of Canada for early to mid next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Generally a post-frontal weather regime overnight and Wednesday, with increasing northerly to northwest sfc winds and lingering low MVFR to IFR CIGs acrs much of the area. The increasing sfc winds should eventually mix out any lingering fog, but there may be some MVFR VSBYs through 4AM. Sctrd showers and even a thunderstorm will still be a possibility overrunning the front and getting into the VCNTY of BRL and maybe MLI. Then on Wed a post-frontal band of light rain will sweep acrs the area, becoming mixed with snow or changing over to all snow at CID and DBQ for a few hours before ending. North to northwest sfc winds will gust up to 30 KTS much of the day. Then expect some clearing and category improvement from the west late in the afternoon and during Wed evening.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.