textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick round of light snow will be seen mainly this afternoon. Accumulations will range from a trace to around 1.5 inches in the Highway 20 corridor. Winds gusting up to 40 mph will be seen tonight that may result in patchy drifting snow.

- Dangerous cold will be seen tonight into Monday with cold weather headlines in effect for the entire area.

- The active weather pattern will continue the rest of the week with additional systems capable of producing light snow and windy conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Quiet but cold conditions will be seen through mid-morning as the next clipper system approaches.

Starting late morning and continuing into early evening the clipper system will bring another round of snow to a good chunk of areas along/north of I-80.

Like yesterday this will be a quick hitting system with snow occurring 3-7 hours with the heaviest snowfall rates occurring for about 3 hours. Also like yesterday the snow will be the dry fluffy type.

Areas in the Highway 20 corridor have the best chances of seeing 1 to 1.5 inches of snow with 0.5 to 1 inch down to I-80. South of I-80 amounts ranging from a trace to a dusting are expected.

About the time the snow ends early this evening the arctic front arrives. The models are progged a very respectable pressure rise so the arrival of the front will be accompanied by a jump in wind speeds.

The mid-evening and overnight hours will be brutal. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be seen as the cold air rushes into the area. Wind chills will be 20 to 25 below zero north of a Sigourney, IA to Aledo, IL line with 15 to 20 below zero south of that line. As a result, the cold weather advisory has been expanded to the entire area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Monday through Tuesday Assessment...a certainty (>98%) confidence of temperatures moderating Tuesday

Cold best describes Monday. Dangerously cold wind chills will be seen during the morning with wind chills likely remaining at or below zero for the afternoon hours. Monday night will see winds diminish and become southerly after midnight. So low temperatures may occur during the evening with steady or slowly rising temperatures after midnight.

Right now the model consensus has dry conditions Monday through Tuesday. However, there is a subtle weak disturbance moving through in the flow aloft Monday afternoon and potentially into the evening. If there are any low clouds present then the atmosphere would be capable of sneezing flurries.

Southerly flow on Tuesday ahead of another clipper system will boost temperatures higher but keep them below normal.

Tuesday night and Wednesday Assessment...high (>70%) confidence of light snow accumulation

The next clipper system moves through the area very late Tuesday afternoon and night. The trend the past few days has been southward with the track and tonight the tracks are either the same or a subtle shift south. What has changed is that several deterministic runs now have a weak low moving across the area. This was not the case 24 hours ago.

The model consensus only has 20-30 percent snow chances Tuesday night which is due to many ensemble members from the various models remaining dry. What is interesting is the ECMWF-AIFS continues to tick upward with is 6 hour QPF and the projected QPF favors the areas along/north of I-80.

The forcing associated with the clipper system is quite strong so I suspect that snow chances will move upward over the next 36 hours for areas along/north of I-80. Given that this would be another dry fluffy snow event, a rough estimate this far out is for snow amounts to range from a dusting to potentially an inch or two.

The bigger message Tuesday night looks to be the winds. Another potent arctic front will be associated with the clipper system which should result in another night of windy conditions. The model consensus does not yet show this but it usually lags on the wind ramp up, especially in strong cold advection situations.

On Wednesday the models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through in the flow aloft. The cold temperatures place any clouds in the favorable growth zone for snow so yet another round of light snow or flurries is expected. Indeed, the model consensus is now starting to catch on to this scenario and has a 20 percent chance of snow for the northern part of the area.

Wednesday night/Thusday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of below normal temperatures

Another surge of modified arctic air will settle across the area Wednesday night into Thursday that will produce below normal temperatures. The model consensus has dry conditions but there may be some lingering light snow or flurries Wednesday evening associated with the arctic front moving out of the area. Breezy conditions will be seen Wednesday evening but winds will slowly diminish as the high builds further east into the area.

Thursday night through Friday night Assessment...low (<30%) confidence regarding precipitation chances

The models diverge with their respective solutions late week in regards to the sensible weather. The UKMET/GFS bring a system through the area Thursday night into Friday producing precipitation. The ECMWF/CMC have no system while the ICON model suggests a weak upper level system.

The differences appear to be related as to how quickly the arctic high from Canada builds south into the Midwest. The ECMWF/CMC are the quickest which pushes the active baroclinic zone south of the area. Interestingly, the ECMWF-AIFS has dry conditions while the AIGFS suggests there could be some precipitation Thursday night into Friday in Wisconsin.

As a result of the differences between the models, the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of precipitation mainly Friday into Friday night for parts of the area. The consensus appears to be biased toward the GFS/GEFS.

Saturday Assessment...low (<30%) confidence on precipitation chances

The key to Saturday and into Saturday night will be the strength and position of the arctic high. The various global models do agree that a 1040+ high will eventually build down into the Plains but differ on the timing. The deterministic runs of the global models have Saturday as dry. However, there are members of the various ensemble runs that have the arctic high weaker and further north which allows a weak system to move through the area.

As a result of the weaker ensemble members, the model consensus has a 20-30 percent chance of snow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1102 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Another quick moving band of snow and strong winds will arrive later this afternoon in all of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This snow will be most widespread and affect the north portion of the area most through early evening, but even in the south, some short term periods of IFR vis/cigs in light snow is possible this afternoon. Initially, southwest winds of 10-15kts are expected, but by early evening, an Arctic front will arrive bringing strong northwest winds up to 38kts, and some blowing snow, mainly north of Highway 30 where some snow depth may allow for blowing snow in this wind. To the south, a lack of snow should keep blowing snow limited or no impact. Very cold conditions are expected to spread into the area again tonight on this strong wind flow. This cold dry air is expected to bring a dry, Monday, with stratocumulus gradually breaking up to VFR.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076-077. Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for IAZ067- 068-078-087>089-098-099. IL...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for ILZ001- 002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for MOZ009- 010.