textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost is possible again this morning, though likely more patchy and favored across south/east sections of the service area as well as any poor drainage areas.

- Temperatures this week will warm to above normal for late October. Dry conditions are expected.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Yet another cold yet seasonable morning is occurring across the forecast area this morning. While much of the area is warmer than it was at 1 AM yesterday by 4-8 degrees, patchy frost will still be possible early this morning, primarily in the southern and eastern parts of the forecast area where winds will be light. However, this will be the last touch of cold air we have this week as a roundabout connection to the Gulf becomes established and allows warm, moist air to advect into the area. In fact, this warm advection will be noticeable as early as this afternoon as highs jump into the mid 60s.

In addition to these warm temperatures, it will be quite breezy due to a pressure gradient west of the high pressure center. Gusts up to 25-30 mph will be possible, especially in parts of eastern Iowa north of Interstate 80. This will also support substantial mixing within the boundary layer and lower dewpoints a few degrees across the area, counteracting the ongoing moisture advection. Today will have the most conducive conditions for fire weather concerns this week but is marginal due to RH values around 35-45%.

Following a cool night with lows in the low 40s, Monday will be a near mimicry of today at a couple degrees warmer, a few clouds, and not as breezy due to a weaker pressure gradient. Fire weather concerns are low for Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Tuesday and beyond are expected to feel quite pleasant for late October. Upper level ridging will remain over the central US with some amplification midweek, which will further enhance its encroachment over the forecast area. Gradual warm advection along the western flank of this ridge will provide a gradual but steady stream of increasing temperatures and seasonable moisture, as seen in the beginning of the week. Together, these will support daily temperatures near 7-10+ degrees above normal.

Dry conditions are expected in conjunction with this warming trend, which brings some concern for fire weather potential. However, there are two factors at play that should help limit the potential: a gradual increase in low-level moisture and a broad pressure gradient inducing weak surface winds. As such, while the threat appears low at this time, this remains an area to watch as we progress through the week.

Towards the end of the week, a pattern change appears possible as a midlevel trough plows into the ridge. This may be our next chance for measurable precipitation, though a sizable amount of dry air to overcome keeps confidence low at this time.

Beyond 7 days...

Recurving typhoons in western Pacific often portend a central/eastern CONUS trough in about 6-14 days (buckling of jet orientation over the north Pacific which can pump up the ridge into Alaska and the western CONUS in turning fostering an eastern trough), and probably closer to 14 days in this case with Typhoon Champi recurving further west towards China. Something to monitor for a pattern change to colder and potentially a period of unsettled/wet weather. Latest CPC 8-14 day outlooks Oct 25-31 lean above normal on precipitation and likely above normal temperatures though again toward the end of the period is when we may see the evolution toward more troughing and colder conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. With high pressure to the east and a tightening pressure gradient over the region, the greatest concern during the TAF period is gusty southwest winds from 18/15-22Z. CID/DBQ are most likely to see the strongest gusts to 22-25 kts, while BRL/MLI are most likely to see gusts at or below 20 kts. Otherwise, clear skies and dry conditions are expected.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.