textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalously warm temperatures will be seen through at least Wednesday. Record highs are possible Monday (2/16) along with the potential for record warm lows Monday through Wednesday (2/16-2/18). Refer to the climate section for further information.

- A changing flow pattern across the hemisphere will create favorable conditions for seasonably strong (990-1000 mb) and strong (980-989 mb) systems over the CONUS for the next ten days.

- While there are precipitation chances in the forecast for the second half of next week, they will be spotty in nature which will increase precipitation deficits, worsen drought conditions and fuel the potential for grass fire development.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The dry lower atmosphere has shunted the precip from central Missouri into southern Illinois. There is still a potential for sprinkles or some very light rain south of a line from Macomb, IL west to the IA/MO border from late afternoon through the evening. However, given the continued southward trend with the track of the system, there is a 60-70% probability of dry conditions in the far south.

Winds become light overnight as a weak wind shift line moves east through Iowa. HRRR trends has been favoring areas south of I-80 for some fog development overnight and HREF has 40-70% probabilities of some light fog occurring.

On Sunday, clearing skies will allow an anomalously warm day for the area. While no where close to record highs, max temperatures look to be 10-15 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Sunday night through Tuesday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence for anomalously warm temperatures. Record temperatures possible.

The late weekend and first part of the new work week will be a period of anomalously warm temperatures and dry conditions. The position of the developing warm front and cloud cover will dictate how warm it gets during the day.

Model solutions vary with the position of the warm front with it anywhere from the WI/IL border to south of I-80. Given the Great Lakes are a large cold sink, the warm front will probably stall at the south edge of Lake Michigan. The front will most likely then lay out in a WNW to ESE line from the south edge of Lake Michigan which would place the front in the vicinity of Highway 30 across our area.

HREF has 500 mb heights above the 85th percentile at 6 AM Monday morning. Taking this into account along with cloud cover and climate records, Monday has the best potential to see some record highs across the area.

Cloud cover and sustained southerly flow south will help keep overnight temperatures elevated. The ECMWF EFI is 0.5-0.6 on anomalously warm min temperatures Monday suggesting the potential for record warm lows.

The potential for more cloud cover on Tuesday will suppress high temperatures somewhat but they will be well below record highs for February 17th.

Tuesday night/Wednesday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of anomalously warm conditions. Low (25%) confidence on rain chances.

The anomalously warm conditions will continue into mid-week. While no record highs are forecast, the continued southerly flow raises the potential for record warm lows to occur. The ECMWF EFI increases to 0.7 for anomalously warm low temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday.

While the model consensus does have a 20-40% chance for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday north of I-80 with a passing upper level disturbance, the moisture source is from the southern Plains which are in drought conditions. Thus there are questions regarding moisture availability for precipitation. Interestingly, the ECMWF- AIFS is much more robust in precipitation generation than the AIGFS. The overall trend of the model consensus has been to slowly lower precipitation chances and I would not be surprised if this continues over the next several model cycles.

Wednesday night/Thursday Assessment...low (<25%) confidence on precipitation

Wednesday night into Thursday is a transition period. A cold front will slowly move through the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Although it will be warmer than normal, the well above normal temperatures will be seen over the southeast half of the area.

The passage of the front combined with an upper level disturbance has the model consensus generating a 20-30% chance of precipitation. However, like 24 hours earlier, the moisture source is the southern Plains, not the Gulf which raises questions regarding precipitation potential.

The overall trend with the model consensus has been to slowly lower pops which will likely continue over the next several model cycles. However, the difference between Wed night/Thurs and Tues night/Wed is that there will be a weak low moving along the advancing cold front. This additional forcing may be just enough to give a slightly better chance for precipitation Wed night into Thursday. Again, however, any precipitation has a high probability of being spotty in nature.

Thursday night through Saturday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on cooler temperatures. Low (20-30%) confidence on precipitation

With the flow pattern aloft in flux, the model solutions diverge regarding the sensible weather for late next week and into the first part of the weekend.

The models agree in two areas; 1) cooler temperatures will be seen across the area albeit still warmer than normal, and 2) there will be a storm system moving through the Midwest.

The ECMWF is the most aggressive bringing a sub 990 mb double barreled low across the area. Such a solution indicates high temperatures mid-morning Friday followed by falling temperatures, very windy conditions and snow showers. The other solutions have either a seasonably strong low or no low present. Additionally, the tracks are either north/west of the area, over the area or to the south/east of the area.

Given the track, strength and timing differences, the model consensus has 20-30% precipitation chances Thursday night and then 20% precipitation chances Friday through Saturday.

The model consensus trend has been downward on the precipitation chances Thursday night with not much change Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions expected at the terminals with light winds. That being said, patchy fog is possible overnight into mid-morning Sunday, however we are seeing mid/high cloudiness lingering over the region so this potential will be dependent upon the extent/location of any clearing. In addition, there is a low signal for some lower stratus over Missouri, which could advect/develop northward toward BRL Sunday morning. Will limit any mention of fog and scattered lower clouds to BRL and keep just MVFR visibility restrictions for now, which is where confidence is highest with NBM and HREF probabilities at 50-60%. Certainly can't rule out pockets of fog and patchy MVFR visibility at the other terminals, and lower conditions (IFR/LIFR) at BRL, but just not enough confidence at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Record high temperatures for February 16th

Burlington, IA.......68 in 1921 Cedar Rapids, IA.....67 in 1921 Dubuque, IA..........60 in 1921 and previous years Moline, IL...........60 in 1921

Record warm lows for February 16th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1882 Moline, IL...........38 in 1998 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 17th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.