textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light accumulating snow is still on track to move across the area today and into the evening. Most locations are expected to see between a half inch up to 1.5 inches of total snow, with locally higher amounts up to 2 inches possible in east-central and northeast Iowa.

- Temperatures in the week ahead will gradually warm to near seasonable values. In fact, high temperatures may warm above normal late in the week south of a clipper system dropping down through the Great Lakes.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

The current water vapor(WV) loop was indicating a vigorous upper level wave nicely acrs the eastern ND/SD border region. This is the clipper that will look to dig down southeastward acrs the Upper MS RVR Valley and into the GRT LKS through tonight. But as it does, it will encounter an upper ridge lobe which could dampen the wave quite a bit, thus a weakening trend expected as it move acrs our area. The first warm air advection main band of snow will sweep in acrs the local area from west-to-east this morning, and with quick saturation along with a nice bout of upward omegas/lift, some areas acrs the northwest third of the DVN CWA may get a quick half inch or more from this initial activity. Then clusters to sctrd snow showers to fill in behind the lead band from late morning and through the afternoon, lingering through 8 to 9 PM this evening before scooting off to the east and southeast with the weakening upper wave.

All in all, taking into account the extent of lift, saturation and thermodynamics of the accepted vertical profiles(as well as 14-16:1 LSR's), the previously advertised widespread 0.50 to 1.5 inches still looks on track. The higher values more likley along and north of the Hwy 30 corridor, and would not be surprised to hear of an isolated 2+ inch amount in northeast IA. Lower amounts as you head east and south from the local area. Looking at the fcst soundings and BUFKIT after 06z tonight, the profiles do top down dry into freezing drizzle soundings with the loss of ice nuclei. Will bank on subsidence behind the passing wave to shut off lift into early Monday morning and will not mention in the grids just yet. But there may be a few hour transition period, if we have low enough clouds, we may get in on some spotty light freezing drizzle.

As for temperatures today, increasing south to southwesterly sfc winds and becoming gusty by afternoon will be a warming force ahead of the incoming clipper and despite the snow. We should have widespread high temps in the mid to upper 20s. Tonight, even with a switch to northwest winds, some lag tapping into colder air will allow for a milder night generally in the teens.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 248 AM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Monday looks like a near normal day for early February as long as we get in on some sunshine under a passing high pressure ridge. But some areas will have a fresh inch of snow as well which may temper the warm up potential some. The rest of the week still looks like a broad, almost split northwesterly flow regime acrs the mid and eastern CONUS. Although this flow may be riddled with vort wings and subtle clipper waves, moisture for these features to utilize to produce precip at the sfc will be hard to come by and there just may be occasional light chances for a passing bout of flurries through mid week. Temp fluctuations from near to a bit below normal look to occur through mid week, then there are signs in the medium range ensembles that a more substantial clipper wave out of the Pacific NW riding the western upper ridge, will eventually dig down into the GRT LKS late Thu into Friday. Current ensemble handling propagates this low pressure and it's associated precip fields just to the northeast of the area at week's end. If this occurs, the local area will be the beneficiary of it's breezy warm draw south of it and zoom the temps well above normal Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR until the upstream snow system clipper pushes in from the west bringing in deteriorating conditions with a band of light to moderate snow making for MVFR with pockets of passing IFR conditions from CIGs and VSBYS from mid morning through early evening before the snow moves east of the TAF sites. Even after the snow exits, it appears MVFR clouds will linger for much of Sunday night and will have to watch for lingering flurries or even some spotty light freezing drizzle in spots if the clouds are low enough. The sfc winds will become southwesterly and gusty today ahead of the clipper and may interact with falling snow for passing bouts of more reduced VSBYs than currently fcst.The sfc winds will veer to the west and decrease toward the end of the TAF cycle as a sfc front moves acrs the area from west to east.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.