textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions expected through Tuesday morning with comfortable humidity levels.

- A more active pattern takes shape during the middle of the work week, introducing chances (50-80%) for scattered showers and storms, as temperatures and humidity slowly increase.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Sandwiched between a ridge over the Northern Plains and a trough over the Ohio River Valley, much of the area will be dry and partly cloudy today with the winds dying down after a windy Saturday as an elongated high pressure shifts into Iowa. Highs are forecasted to be a few degrees below normal for the beginning of August, in the upper 70s to low 80s. Subsiding winds heading into Sunday night should support radiational cooling, with lows dropping into the mid-50s to low 60s.

Monday appears to be a rinse-and-repeat of Sunday with temperatures 1-2 degrees on the warmer side. The ridge shifts over the CWA as the next shortwave trough swings across the Northern Rockies. A developing low pressure system over Manitoba and its associated cold front moving across the Northern Plains is expected to nudge the high pressure eastward over the area and shift our winds back to southerly. This will set the stage for PoPs and muggy humidity to return to the area by the middle of next week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Tuesday-Thursday...Despite the shortwave trough lifting into Canada, another shortwave rotates into the base of the longwave trough over the Northern Plains and Rockies, keeping the cold front propagating into Iowa. Diffluent flow aloft and surface convergence will support scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-80% coverage) along the front where the main axis of moisture will be present. Severe threat with these storms should be limited due to the displacement of the trough to the northwest. There is only a 20-30% chance of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg and at least 25 knots of sfc-to-500 mb bulk shear per the 02.12z LREF run. By Wednesday, the cold front is forecasted to clear most of the CWA with it stalling south of Highway 34. A new low pressure system near the Oklahoma-Kansas border could provide some low- level isentropic upglide and mid-level F-gen just north of this baroclinic zone. PoPs will remain elevated on Wednesday around 50-70%. The longwave trough finally reaches Upper Mississippi River Valley on Thursday, pulling the low pressure over the Southern Plains northeastward through Illinois. PoPs (30-50%) should be limited to along and east of the Mississippi River as a high pressure sits over northern Iowa.

Friday-Saturday...The high pressure over northern Iowa shifts over our CWA on Friday, likely keeping the area dry (70-90%). As northwesterly flow returns aloft, the door is open for quick shortwave trough passages which could bring bursts of precipitation into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Largely VFR conditions were seen over the area early this morning, with MVFR visibility reductions due to fog in isolated spots. As the fog improves over the next hour or so, an MVFR/IFR stratus deck is sinking southwestward from Wisconsin towards the local terminals, likely to impact DBQ and MLI (lower confidence for CID). In time, this stratus deck should dissipate, leading to a period of daytime cumulus clouds area- wide this afternoon and early evening. North-northeast winds will remain in place today, increasing to around 10 knots near mid-day, before becoming calm overnight as high pressure builds over the area.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.