textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end from southwest to northeast by late morning. Rainfall totals this morning between a quarter to a half an inch are possible with isolated amounts up to 1 inch.

- A dry and unseasonably mild weekend is ahead of us.

- Precipitation chances return Monday night through the remainder of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

An area of showers and thunderstorms stretches from southeast South Dakota southeastward into northwest Illinois early this morning. This activity is associated with a low level jet impinging on a elevated warm front draped across the area. The low level jet will veer into eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through 12 UTC Friday with POPs continuing through late morning on Friday. Chances for showers and storms were extended southward this morning from southeast Iowa into northeast Missouri and west central Illinois to account for a more southerly shift based on radar trends.

Showers and storms are expected to shift to the northeast of the area by 18 UTC Friday with lingering clouds across the area as the surface warm fronts lifts northward through Friday night. The position of the warm front will impact high temperatures today with areas south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line warming into the lower to mid 80s and high temperatures in the lower 70s in far northwest Illinois. Low temperatures Friday night will be warmer due to warm southerly flow across the area, with widespread low temperatures in the upper 50s in far northwest Illinois and lower 60s across eastern Iowa, northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

There has been little change in the forecast for this weekend into next week from the previous forecast. Please see the previous forecast discussion below.

This Weekend...

A beautiful weekend is ahead of us. Warm front will have fully moved northeast and out of the area, leaving us under decent warm advection through the weekend. As such, temperatures are expected to increase well above seasonal normals, especially Saturday with the strongest warm advection. However cloud cover from the remnants of Isaias will help keep temperatures from reaching through full potential on Saturday. Widespread temperatures in the low 80s are expected Saturday, with mid- upper 70s Sunday. Mostly clear conditions will prevail on Sunday as clouds associated with the remnants of Isaias shift to the east.

Next Week...

Zonal flow will start the new work week, with llvl flow increasing out of the southwest ahead of a passing weak shortwave. Monday will remain dry and unseasonably mild, with the wave and associated cold front passing through Monday night into Tuesday. Moisture will remain limited ahead of the front, which should limit precipitation chances for most (<15% chances). Thus, a largely dry forecast. After that wave, we will see brief ridging prior to a strong wave deepening over the Rockies. As this deepens, southwest flow will set up over the Central CONUS, shunting the ridge east Wednesday. Warm advection will increase overhead through midweek, with shortwaves passing through ahead of this deep wave. Thus, a more active pattern will take shape and chances for showers/storms will be on the rise midweek and beyond. It is too soon to determine the threat of strong/severe storms, along with heavy rain potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms were seen over much of the area early this morning along a warm front that will lift northeastward into the early afternoon. Confidence on the timing of impacts to flight conditions are moderate at best since visibilities appear to be hovering around the VFR/MVFR threshold in light to moderate rainfall, so TEMPO groups were used to convey these changing conditions. This activity appears to be higher-based, so ceilings should remain VFR. As we go through the morning, this activity should wane from west to east, with clearing skies in its wake. A period of weak low- level wind shear is likely to develop at DBQ overnight as 35 knot southwesterly flow aloft is expected. Otherwise, southeasterly winds today will gradually turn more southerly tonight into Saturday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.