textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend well above normal this week, increasing daily throughout. Widespread 50s and 60s can be expected by week's end, with 70s not out of question for some on Friday.

- Daily chances for precipitation will be seen Tuesday and beyond, with probabilities expanding northward each day. Thunderstorm chances also increase through the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Surface high pressure continues to slide east of the Great Lakes, with surface winds shifting southeasterly through the day. Overall, today will be a seasonally pleasant day for most. Low clouds will remain draped over the area today, with locations north of Interstate 80 seeing the best chance for some sun to break through. Today, we will also see increasing warm advection through the day, with temperatures increasing into the 40s throughout. Again, we saw temperatures trend upwards since the last forecast package, with a larger area of mid-upper 40s. Increasing cloud cover may lead to temperature forecast challenges today though. Otherwise, we have a dry forecast ahead of us today.

Tonight, a subtle wave will pass north of the area, bringing along low-end PoPs largely to areas north of Interstate 80. Surface temperatures will cool to near 30 in our north, and remain in the mid 30s south. LLVL thermal profiles will largely support primary precipitation type as drizzle to light rain. Although, areas along Highway 20 will have borderline thermal profiles, with some CAMs supporting freezing drizzle. The consensus points to slightly milder LLVL temperature profiles, keeping it as rain, but there will be a non-zero chance for a brief period of freezing drizzle. The timeframe that would support freezing drizzle would be between midnight and 6AM, with warming temperatures Tuesday morning putting an end to it. While confidence in freezing rain chances is low, it is worth a mention because it may occur near the Tuesday AM commute. Thus, keep this in mind and drive with added caution late tonight into Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 222 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tuesday and beyond, upper level flow transitions from brief zonal flow to southwesterly. This pattern change will allow temperatures to increase throughout the area for the remainder of the week, bringing temperatures well above seasonal norms. We will also see a stark increase in moisture, which will allow for near daily chances for precipitation. The first of these precipitation chances comes in Tuesday, as the first wave in this active pattern moves through. A baroclinic zone will remain draped over/near the area, which will serve as a focal point for the axis of heaviest precipitation. Currently, much of guidance keeps this precipitation axis along and south of the Highway 34 corridor through much of Tuesday, slowly working its way north through the day. One thing to note is that this axis has been trending slightly south over the last couple of forecast packages, hinting that areas north of Interstate 80 might not see much if any precipitation through much of the day Tuesday. Thus, highest precipitation probs remain along/south of Interstate 80 (60-90% PoPs), with lower probs north (40-60% PoPs). In either case, it looks to be a gloomy and cloudy day throughout. Overall, this looks to be a persistent and long duration light rain through Tuesday. Thus, we are not expecting heavy rainfall, nor high totals. Currently, we are looking at about 0.25" or less north of Interstate 80, 0.25-0.50"+ between I-80 and Highway 34, then 0.50"+ south of HWY34 with highest chances for 1.00"+ (20-30%) roughly along and south of a line from Memphis MO to Macomb IL.

A lot of similar weather will be seen through the second half of the week, with temperatures continuing to trend upwards. We will see widespread 50s and 60s by the end of the week. There remains some uncertainty on how high our temperatures get, owing to dense cloud cover and persistent rainfall. Either way, we will still be well above seasonal norms. As we progress through the week, we will see the pattern become more amplified, shunting the baroclinic zone farther north. Thus, we will see precipitation probabilities increase northward each day through the week, favorable for widespread rainfall potential. Through the second half of the week, the more amplified pattern will also allow for some instability to build over the area. Thus, thunderstorm probabilities will increase, with stronger forcing also favoring the potential. With such a pattern, deep layer shear will also increase through the week. Thus, wouldn't be shocked if we start to see some stronger storms as the week progresses. Looking at CSU severe weather probabilities, the overall threat for severe seems low (<15% chances), but non-zero. Thus, will have to keep an eye on the extended, as the SPC is also hinting at severe potential extending northward, bringing the Day 5 15% chance of severe northwards to just near our southern border.

While the week is going to be gloomy with persistent precipitation chances, much of this should fall as light rain. Thus, totals aren't expected to add up quickly. When all is said and done, WPC indicates rainfall totals generally between 1.00-2.00". The upper part of that range is most likely for areas south of Interstate 80, owing to much of that rainfall falling in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. In the end, right now we are not seeing any flooding concerns, owing to below normal soil moisture and thawed grounds. Thus, a much needed soaking rainfall will be seen throughout. This active pattern looks to attempt to breakdown over the weekend, but not completely. Thus, we may have some more dry time between systems. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Model data is greatly underestimating the extent of MVFR stratus this morning, which will cover nearly the entire area as of 12-12Z this morning, with cigs between 1500-3000 ft. While visibilities generally remain good today, I've only included modest improvement in cigs to higher MVFR to low VFR this afternoon, and descending cigs again overnight. Warm advection could also offer a few showers after 06z early Tuesday morning, a little too far out for inclusion in TAFs yet, given probabilities generally under 60%.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.