textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Noticeably warmer today with high temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s. A storm system passing to the north may result in patchy freezing drizzle tonight north of I-80, mainly in northwest Illinois.

- Snow chances increasing Saturday night into Sunday morning, with 50-80% probabilities of 2+" north of Highway 34.

- Active northwest flow aloft is forecast to continue next week with the main storm track near the area. This will bring chances of precipitation to the area every 36 to 48 hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A mid level shortwave is forecast to move across the area this afternoon into tonight sending a cold front across the area. It will be noticeably warmer today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 20s along the Highway 20 corridor to the mid 30s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. Decided to add light snow/flurries along the Highway 20 corridor this afternoon with patchy freezing drizzle across northwest Illinois north of Interstate 80 after 00 UTC on Saturday. Model soundings show a loss of saturation in the -10 to -20C layer indicating limited ice for snowflake production and abundant supercooled water for patchy freezing drizzle. Chances are low in this occurring. If freezing drizzle does occur, it should come to an end by 6 UTC Saturday.

Temperatures will drop quickly behind the front with overnight low temperatures ranging from the lower teens above zero to the mid 20s in far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri and west central Illinois.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 203 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The storm track will remain over the area through the long term period with a slight shifting of the jet stream with each passing clipper system through the long term period. There is a clipper roughly every 36 to 48 hours through the long term period that will produce mainly light precipitation/snow chances as they pass near the area. Ahead of each system, expect high temperatures in the 30s with 20s in the wake of each storm system.

The next of these clippers are forecast to arrive late Saturday afternoon into the evening. Model soundings show fast top down saturation with ample cold air and moisture for snowfall with this storm system. Temperatures during the snowfall will be in 20s with a dry/fluffy snow expected. Winds will be relatively light with east to northeast winds of 5 to 15 MPH through the duration of the snow. In general, a widespread 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible area wide with 2 to 4 inches possible west of an Iowa City to Manchester line with the heavier snowfall from this system falling in central Iowa. Currently, the probability of at least 2 inches of snow is 60 to 80% north of a Fairfield to Galesburg line to 30 to 50% to the south. The probability of at least 4 inches of snow is is 30 to 50% north of a Fairfield to Galesburg line with 20 to 30% to the south. Decided not to issue a Winter Storm Watch with this forecast with 20 to 30% probabilities of reaching Winter Storm Warning criteria of 6+ inches of snow at this time. Please continue to monitor the forecasts with this storm system heading into the weekend. It will be colder on Sunday with high temperatures in the upper teens to upper 20s from north to south across the area. Low temperatures on Sunday will be cold with low temperatures in the single digits above zero and the potential for wind chills approaching -10F.

Warmer air will be drawn northward on Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of another clipper that is forecast to move across the area for the middle of the week. This will result in high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday in the 30s. This system will pass farther to the north than the one on Saturday night and depending on the track may result in more of wintry mix across the area but this will ultimately depend on the track of this system. Colder air will spread back into the area behind this system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A cold front will move through this evening leading to MVFR ceilings into Saturday morning. Moisture is limited with this system, but still the potential for some patchy light snow or freezing drizzle near DBQ this evening into tonight, along with brief IFR. Winds will remain relatively light through the period (under 15 kts).

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.