textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue this week and have a greater than 70% chance of continuing through the end of October.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Morning UA plots and analysis reveals a couple of embedded shortwaves within broad SW flow from the Desert SW through the Plains. The one wave over KS is aiding some returns on radar over north central parts of KS, but not much if any precipitation appears to be reaching the ground given the dry air in regional RAOBs. As this waves move through over the next 12-18+ hrs it will weaken/dampen, as the upper ridge undergoes amplification. Given this and the dry air in place little impact is expected aside from mid/high cloudiness. Lows tonight are anticipated to be mainly in the range of 40 to 45F. However, given the dry air and light winds any areas that manage to see fewer clouds will likely drop back into the 30s with patchy frost once again.

Tuesday should see a return of sunny skies with the increasing subsidence with the amplifying ridge in the wake of the departing wave. However, light winds from the ESE will keep temperatures fairly similar to just a degree or two warmer than those of today, with highs around 70 or in the lower 70s. Absolutely gorgeous!

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

The dry and above normal fall weather will continue through the beginning of the weekend. By Wednesday, a trough moving into the Intermountain West will amplify the upper ridge, which in turn will increase 1000-500 hPa thickness. As a result, we're expecting a continued warming trend with highs in the 70s through at least the beginning of the weekend. Friday and Saturday we'll see the surface pressure gradient increase between the encroaching trough from the Intermountain West and the departing Great Lakes ridge. This will induce gusty southerly winds across the region. Will have to keep an eye on the potential for deeper mixing and warmer highs possibly in the upper 70s/near 80 in some locations during this time, but for now indications are we may have cloud cover to contend with making this lower confidence. In addition, increasing low level moisture and RH values should mitigate any fire weather concerns. However, if the winds were to stay slightly backed from SSE with some component of dry advection off the departing high then this could change, so it's worth keeping an eye on as well.

Over the weekend, precipitation chances may return, though there is considerable uncertainty in when, where, and to what degree based on model spread of strength/tracking/timing. Most guidance suggests any system would not reach the area until late in the weekend or early next week at the earliest.

Lastly, an additional look ahead suggests that while this late weekend system may only drop temperatures back to near normal, it will not end our stretch of above normal temperatures. CPC highlights a very high combined probabilities (97%) for near normal to above normal temperatures through the end of October, as seen in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.