textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold high pressure will bring chilly weather through Tuesday with a freeze expected tonight.

- An accumulating snow is expected to graze our southwestern counties late tonight.

- There are occasional chances for light rain and snow/mix through Tuesday night (20-50%).

- More significant rainfall and higher coverage still possible by late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Cold, seasonally strong high pressure is moving into the area this morning as a cold front reached the Quad Cities around 1 AM. Very little moisture has allowed this to be mainly a dry FROPA, though a couple weak showers did pass through the north 1/2 of the area late last evening, and due to cold air aloft, a lightning strike was recorded in far northern Dubuque County.

Northwest winds will continue today, with an increase in mid clouds expected through the day as Frontogenetic processes begin to develop on the southwest flank of the high pressure area, mainly over the Missouri Valley through tonight. This F-gen is forecast to intensity, with saturation increasing aloft tonight. It will interact with the cold high pressure to bring a narrow swath of accumulating snow to portions of Iowa and Missouri/western Illinois, with the question being exactly where does this narrow band reach the ground. There are around half the guidance which show this band impacting our southern counties while the other half show it remaining south of the CWA. This mainly comes down to how models are handling a dry layer, about the lowest 5000 ft, shown in model soundings. This dry wedge and dry advection in that layer will continue to be a resistance to saturation through Tuesday. This is typical for F-gen bands, and one major reason they're often very narrow, as saturation is not complete either side of the band. I do think it will at least temporarily saturate in our southwest corner, with pops peaking around 80% late tonight, and accumulations around 1 inch expected. The NBM 1 inch probabilities remain in the 20-40, while WPC guidance for over 1 inch is found in the 75-90th percentile, with nearly dry in the lowest 50%. Thus, there is statistical support showing this event being on the lower end for our area, despite some deterministic models dropping 3+" of snow in our southwest.

Temperatures tonight continue to be coldest in the north 1/2, where cloud cover will be thin at times, with lows in the lower 20s. South of I-80, under thick cloud cover, temperatures will be near freezing, possibly a little below at times. Though areas along and south of a line from Keokuk County to Louisa County are "on" for frost/freeze headlines, I'm unable to coordinate a headline at this time with surrounding WFOs, which correctly address low confidence due to the marginal nature of the low temps near freezing, cloud cover, and precipitation falling (mainly as snow). Today's day shift will have some time to still get a freeze warning out if needed.

Tuesday, a cold start to the day, cloud cover, and some light rain/snow will keep the day rather cold, in the lower to mid 40s, though winds do not appear strong that day, generally southeast at 8 to 15 mph.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 203 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Wednesday through Friday...Continued warming and with better moisture return off the western Gulf as this mid to late week period progresses. If precip moves out, Wed could be mild as warm sector south winds increase and help boost high temps into the mid to upper 60s. Ensemble upper jet patterns lean toward upper troffiness developing acrs the northern and central plains, while a LLVL boundary organizes and pushes acrs the upper Midwest acting as a precip focal point later Wed into Thu. Then signs of this feature eventually laying out along west-to-east tightening LLVL baroclinicity and flattened westerly steering flow into Fri and even Saturday. This boundary will continue to be a convergent focus for southerly warm moist conveyor to impinge upon and over for more robust precipitation events for the late week timeframe, but where this front lays out is still uncertain with several of the latest run ensemble members more robust with northerly ridging shunting the boundary further to the south of the DVN CWA.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. We will see increasing cloud cover through the day, but should largely remain in the mid levels. Northwest winds will increase this morning to about 10-15 KTs, with gusts upwards to 20-25 KTs through the afternoon. After 00z, we will see the winds decrease once again. No sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.