textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalously warm temperatures will be seen through at least Wednesday. Record highs are possible today along with the potential for record warm lows tonight through Wednesday. Refer to the climate section for further information.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will result in very high fire danger today through Wednesday. Avoid outdoor burning if possible!

- Scattered showers (30-50%) Tuesday night with a low chance (20%) of thunderstorms.

- Additional precipitation chances (30-60%) Thursday into Friday, with rain possibly mixing with or changing to snow as temperatures trend cooler and closer to more seasonable levels.

UPDATE

Issued at 523 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Webcams, observations and GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery all reveal an expansion of dense fog across parts Whiteside, Henry, Bureau and Putnam counties in IL and have issued a Dense Fog Advisory until 15z for these areas.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A surface high pressure ridge is shifting eastward toward the Ohio Valley early this morning, with southerly return flow/warm advection commencing ahead of an approaching weak cool front extending from MN through SD. The onset of low level WAA and increase in high cloudiness has promoted rising temperatures through the 30s and lower 40s, which is above our normal highs this time of year and a sure sign of yet another anomalously warm day ahead. Obs reveal some patchy fog occurring near/south of a Burlington, Iowa to Princeton, Illinois line within a plume of higher surface dew points (40F+).

High cloudiness should thin/decrease as the day progresses allowing for more in the way of solar insolation, as a 125+ kt h250 jet lifts just to our north. This increasing sunshine will be coincident with peak heating and the arrival of a h925 thermal ridge (10c to 12c). This all supports another day of early Spring-like temperatures and likely record breaking warmth with highs in the low to mid 60s. As the case this time of year anomalous warmth will be paired with gusty winds, which are likely to gust 20-30+ mph at times later this morning and afternoon from the S/SW - a very favorable vector for warming. These gusty winds will combine with the very dry fuels and warm temperatures to create elevated fire weather conditions with a very high fire danger. These conditions will be favorable for fire spread, so please avoid outdoor burning if at all possible. Tonight into Tuesday, general consensus of deterministic and ensemble guidance supports the weak cool front sliding down into our northern service area (roughly north of Hwy 30) before stalling. Limited forcing and moisture precludes any precipitation during this time. This boundary could serve as the focus for fog development late tonight/Tuesday morning across our northern counties, but confidence is low. Confidence is higher that above normal warmth will persist south of the boundary in residual southerly flow along with another uptick in high clouds, with some near record warm lows possible in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Cooler readings in the lower to mid 30s, albeit still above normal will be found north of Hwy 30 in closer proximity to the boundary. On Tuesday, thermally not much change expected south of the front owing to more widespread lower to mid 60s. Across our far north near the front, temperatures may remain in the 50s again still well above normal. Records are mostly in the lower 70s except for Dubuque in the mid 60s, and thus while still anomalously warm it's unlikely we'll see record highs. Once again another breezy and warm day will bring a renewed concern for elevated fire weather conditions and a very high fire danger.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

An upper level wave and attendant surface low pressure system will shift from the Northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes by Wednesday morning. Mid level moist advection and ascent aided by the terminus of a 50-55+ kt LLJ will likely foster scattered elevated showers Tuesday evening/night. Best chances favor north of Hwy 30 along/north of an advancing warm front. Can't rule out isolated rumbles of thunder with steepening mid level lapse rates. This round of WAA precip will likely shift to our north by late Tuesday evening. Then, we may have to keep tabs on a cold front that will make inroads late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for the potential of a few more thunderstorms. However, there is plenty of uncertainty as forcing looks rather nebulous with weak low level convergence, and there is also plenty of uncertainty on the extent of moisture in the pre-frontal warm sector. Some of the more aggressive CAMs with convection are notably higher on moisture with FV3 depicting PWATs over 1 inch, while HRRR shows surface dew points in the lower to mid 50s. The surface parcel trajectories are from the southern Rockies and southern Plains, which are largely in drought and thus concerns both may be overdone. Will need to keep an eye on this as HRRR/NAM soundings show possibly 35-50 kt of wind near the top of the ML, which if were to verify could support marginal severe gusts. Confidence is low though on this potential. Where confidence is high is with another night of anomalously warm lows Tuesday night, with the potential for record warm lows well into the 40s and lower 50s as the area largely basks in the warm sector.

Wednesday will be another breezy day, and also another unseasonably mild day due to weak cool advection and deeper mixing with abundant sunshine. This should propel highs back into the 60s nearly areawide, especially given the anomalously warm launch point with temps in the 40s to around 50.

Heading into late week the deterministic and ensembles generally favor another storm system moving across the region Thursday into Friday. This will bring another chance of precipitation. However, there continues to be a lot of variance in both the track and strength of the system. Nonetheless, this system may have a better chance at producing more widespread precipitation with the general consensus favoring the track near the area. Will hope this continues as we really need the moisture. With the track near the area, we would likely see rain to start with the potential to mix with or change to snow on the backside as cooler air moves in. Still a ways off and plenty of uncertainty on the exact track and strength, which will be critical in determining these finer details of the sensible weather. Confidence is high though that we'll be trending cooler and more closer to seasonal averages for temperatures next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Nocturnal inversion should break no later than 19z/16 allowing higher momentum air to create gusts up to 25 knots through sunset. Boundary layer restablizes after sunset with winds dropping to under 10 knots with the potential for patchy MVFR VSBYS. Inversion breaks again 16-18z/17 with the potential for gusts to 30 knots. Looking further ahead there are signals suggesting LLWS developing after 00z/18 across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois.

CLIMATE

Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Record high temperatures for February 16th

Burlington, IA.......68 in 1921 Cedar Rapids, IA.....67 in 1921 Dubuque, IA..........60 in 1921 and previous years Moline, IL...........60 in 1921

Record warm lows for February 16th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1882 Moline, IL...........38 in 1998 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 17th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.