textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy today, with a slight chance (15-20%) of light snow/ flurries and sprinkles this morning. No accumulation is expected.

- Significant travel impacts expected from a winter storm Sunday night into Monday with very strong winds creating blowing snow and near-blizzard conditions impacting the Monday AM commute.

- There is a Marginal (level 1 out 5) and Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms on Sunday.

- Colder Monday and Tuesday, before warmer temperatures return by the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Morning radar mosaics show several echoes across IA and west central IL, due to increase in fgen in the 700mb layer. However surface observations have yet to report any precip reaching the ground thanks in part to a dry 700-500mb RH layer as seen on our 00z DVN sounding. Temperatures were in the low to mid 30s.

An fgen band will move across IA this morning, but with ceilings still above 6kft the current thinking is we will just see flurries/sprinkles with this activity. The exception may be across our far south where the RAP model suggest enough saturation around BRL for precip to reach the surface. In any case, no accumulation is expected due to warm ground and pavement temps. Winds will turn southeast this afternoon/evening with occasional gusts as we mix to 900mb per forecast soundings. Highs to top out in the low 40s in the Hwy 20 corridor to the mid 50s in northeast MO. Strong warm advection will commence tonight, with a warm front lifting north. This will bring rising temps into the upper 40s/low 50s and breezy south winds ahead of the next storm system.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Water vapor this morning shows well advertised storm system is now making its way onshore in the Pacific Northwest. This storm will bring significant impacts to much of the Midwest Sunday through Monday with gusty winds/warm temperatures/thunderstorms on its warm side, to heavy snow, very strong NW winds, and near whiteout/blizzard conditions on the cold side of the system.

New data this morning has shifted the surface low and its warm front placement further north compared to previous runs. The general consensus now has the low tracking from west central IA at 12z Sunday and strengthening to 982 mb over southern WI by 00z Monday. This puts most if not all the CWA in the warm sector and has resulted in a warmer and noticeably more humid forecast for the CWA during the daylight hours Sunday. Strong theta-e and moisture advection will take place through the day (PWs over 1" and dewpoints rising into the low 50s) coupled with increasing low level convergence will support elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms developing in the morning hours primarily over central and northern IL. No severe weather is anticipated with these storms at this time. This all changes when a strong cold front tracks through the area in the afternoon. Building instability/CAPE through the day and 0-6km shear values in excess of 50kts will bring a risk of severe storms primarily in the Noon to 7pm timeframe. SPC has maintained its Marginal/Slight risk areas for the CWA with the bulk of the area in 5% wind/hail aside from Putnam/McDonough counties. Any severe risk should be east and south of the area after 7pm Sunday.

Attention then turns to the strengthening CAA and how quickly cold air moves in changing precipitation over to snow. This should occur in quick order from west to east in the 7-10pm timeframe as intense forcing in the TROWAL/DGZ arrives. Snowfall rates between 1-2" per hour are likely in deformation zone quickly overwhelming the warm ground and accumulating fast on all surfaces. Latest snowfall amounts from the 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance have increased slightly and farther to the south. As a result, I have expanded the Winter Storm Watch 2 tiers of counties south. Amounts over 4" are likely over most of the CWA, with the highest totals of 6-9" in the watch area. However, this snow will be very difficult to measure due to the expected strong NW winds. In fact, the probabilities for wind gusts over 55 mph on the REFS/NAM/00z HREF have increased resulting in a High Wind Watch issuance for our IA/MO counties. Sustained winds between 25 and 35 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph will be possible. There is an expected 24mb gradient across IA at the peak of the winds supporting these conditions. These winds will be occurring while snow is falling creating dangerous travel conditions with near zero visibility at times.

Regarding headlines, have decided to hold off on upgrading with this issuance as confidence in achieving blizzard criteria remains just low enough to warrant another look by the day shift. While you do not need 6" of snow to achieve blizzard conditions, the 3+ hr duration of <1/4 mi vsby is something that is still uncertain. You also do not need snow on the ground for a blizzard as seen by the Jan 29 2008 and March 9th 2002 blizzards where there was <1" snow depth.

Monday night through Friday Assessment...High (>80%) confidence of a warm-up the second half of the week. Medium (40-60%) confidence of snow Tuesday night.

Northwest flow aloft will persist through the week but a building upper level high will allow temperatures to moderate. After an initial cold start, a rapid warm-up will be seen the second half of the week. Tuesday morning will be very cold with windy conditions creating wind chills of 10 to 20 below zero. Outside of a dry week, the models have an upper level disturbance moving through the area Tuesday night. Although moisture is not overly great, the previous cold temperatures combined with the forcing looks to be enough to generate some accumulating snow.

As for amounts, an educated guess is an inch or less for the area. The lower amounts would be south of I-80 with the higher amounts north of I-80.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A band of light to moderate precipitation has developed along the Highway 34 corridor early this morning. The band is just to the north of the BRL TAF terminal. Observations and upstream radar trends suggest that BRL will stay out of the precipitation and MVFR ceilings, but we will hint at these conditions with a SCT015. We may need to adjust if conditions warrant. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the evening hours tonight, with southeasterly flow.

There is some uncertainty this evening into tonight on the potential for low-level wind shear, but several models suggest gusty winds overnight, leading to more mechanical turbulence than LLWS. This will need to be monitored for the addition of LLWS. Late in the period, ceilings do look to lower ahead of an approaching system that will bring a plethora of weather impacts for Sunday through Monday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089. IL...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024. MO...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for MOZ009-010.