textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong storm system will continue to bring very windy conditions across the area this afternoon and evening, along with falling temperatures. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire area through midnight tonight.

- Scattered snow showers are expected to continue into this evening. Some of the snow showers could generate visibilities near zero at times, with accumulations up to 1.0 inch possible in the most intense showers. Additionally, falling temperatures are expected to create icy road conditions for the evening commute, especially in places that see snow accumulations. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for parts of eastern Iowa and Rock Island County until 10 PM.

- A very cold morning is expected Friday morning, with wind chill values expected to fall to the single digits and teens below zero, especially for areas along and north of Interstate 80.

- Mainly dry conditions are expected through the first half of next week, with large temperature swings over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 625 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

An FGEN band at 925 MB is forecast to move southeastward across eastern Iowa this evening and gradual weakening as it approaches the Mississippi River. This will allow narrow bands of intense snow showers to continue through the evening hours. The 00 UTC DVN sounding shows an inversion at 850 MB with wind speeds at the base of the inversion near 45 knots. Any snow showers moving across the area will have the potential for winds to gust to 45 to 55 MPH and cause blowing snow and the potential for visibilities to be near zero for brief periods of time. There will also be rapid changes in visibility over short distances. Additionally, the elongated nature of these convective snow showers will allow snow to occur for up to 1 hour leading to accumulations of up to 1 inch. Temperatures have fallen into the teens across the area increasing the potential for a flash freeze with any precipitation that has melted on untreated roadways. For these reasons, a Winter Storm Warning was been issued until 10 PM CST for areas along and north of Interstate 80 in eastern Iowa plus Rock Island County in Illinois. The wind advisory remains in effect until Midnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

After a rainy morning/early afternoon across the area, attention then turns to the west and northwest as a secondary, more potent cold front is on its way. This front should bring increasing chances (20 to 50%) of snow showers between 4 PM and 10 PM today. As of 2 PM this afternoon, we are seeing wind gusts increasing ahead of the boundary to around 35 to 45 mph over eastern Iowa. These wind gusts will only expand further across the area this afternoon, and the Wind Advisory remains in effect area-wide through midnight tonight.

Back to the snow showers: one concern we have is that the snow showers will be moving through during the evening commute time frame, and combined with the strong wind gusts, this should lead to reduced visibilities under the showers. Upstream over northwest Iowa, we're seeing visibility reductions less than a mile in some spots, but the latest RAP/NAM guidance suggests that the better FGEN forcing should remain north of our area. This, along with limited surface-based instability, should keep our threat for snow squalls low. While visibilities here may not be as bad as they are in northwest Iowa, there could still be some reduced visibilities, and with plummeting temperatures (as fast as 3 degrees cooling per hour!), any remaining wet and untreated roadways could become icy. In short, travel conditions for the evening commute could be treacherous, so use extra caution if out traveling tonight. As far as snow accumulations are concerned, they likely won't be much due to the brief nature of the snow showers, but some locations could see up to a half inch as the soundings suggest ample saturation within the dendritic growth zone aloft that could generate a light, fluffy snow accumulation but enough to make things slick!

Eventually, the snow showers will come to an end late this evening, along with the winds gradually tapering off through the overnight into Friday morning. Temperatures and wind chills will be quite cold in the morning, with lows dipping to the single digits north and the teens south, with wind chills in the single digits and teens below zero (coldest along and north of Interstate 80). These values aren't low enough to warrant a cold headline, but it will still feel quite cold so make sure to bundle up!

The rest of the day Friday will feel seasonably cool, with dry conditions, thanks to a surface high pressure ridge axis progged to sweep through the area mid-day Friday. Southerly return flow will help temperatures rebound nicely from the morning lows, with highs in the lower 20s northeast to the lower/middle 30s southwest.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 217 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Friday night through the rest of the weekend: we will see a few systems pass near or over the local area, but a lack of moisture will keep precipitation chances at bay. The first system will remain north of the area where the better moisture will stay. For us, this will only result in some cloudy skies overnight. The other system is progged in the form of a weak cold front, which looks to sweep through the area during the day Saturday. Again, higher moisture should remain north of the area, so only some cloudy skies are most likely to result from the fropa. Temperatures will warm up to the mid/upper 30s north to the mid 40s south for highs Saturday. Another cold night looks possible Saturday night in the wake of the front, with lows dipping to the lower teens north with some isolated single digit lows, to the lower 20s south.

Monday through Wednesday: model solutions differ quite a bit regarding precipitation chances for the early part of next week, so not much confidence in this. However, confidence is much higher for a warming trend, with the LREF ensemble probabilities of daytime highs above freezing around 70-90+ percent for Monday through Wednesday. Given the significant snow melt over the area these last few days and no major winter systems expected from now through mid- week next week, prospects look very good for a Brown Christmas this year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

An intense storm system continues to track across the Upper Midwest to start the TAF period. There are widespread MVFR ceilings to start the period. West to northwest winds sustained near 25 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 to 45 knots are possible through 06 UTC. Snow showers, especially at KCID and KDBQ, will result in possible IFR visibilities with blsn and gusts up to 45 to 50 knots through 4 UTC. Northwest winds are forecast to begin to diminish from west to east after 06 UTC with gusts up to 30 knots. Ceilings are forecast to lift to MVFR by 06 UTC and then to VFR after 09 UTC. Wind gusts further diminish below 20 knots after 12 UTC. Winds will further drop below 10 knots after 18 UTC.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068. IL...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for ILZ015. MO...Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ009-010.