textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow moving upper low will maintain cloudy and cool weather today with some showers.

- Pattern break could mean a drier Wednesday into Friday with high temps in the 60s to near 70. Rain chances may increase again by Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Slow moving upper low pressure currently almost overhead will look to drift toward northern IN through Wed morning becoming part of a GRT LKS Rex Block. As it does, it will maintain mostly cloudy skies today locally and probably most of tonight now, looking at moisture layer trends. Sctrd shower regime will also continue, but maybe look to wane this afternoon and into tonight according to the CAMs, but wonder if they are trying to settle things down a bit quick. Some very localized pockets of moderate rainfall possible through late morning over a half inch, but most areas should receive an additional tenth of an inch or less. Northeasterly sfc winds of 10- 15 MPH to maintain with diurnal gusts to 25 MPH, and high temps again held in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

With more clouds hanging on or trapped under shallow inversion and northeast winds of 5-10 MPH, am less concerned for fog development but still keep it in mind in case of sudden clear out with sfc wind decouple. Cool overnight lows in the low 50s down into the 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Wednesday... A blocked rather messy upper air pattern continues to unfold acrs much of the CONUS, with both upper and sfc ridging off that complex taking over the local area by mid week. This should make for a mainly dry day for Wed, but several models are sloshing clouds and moisture back westward acrs the DVN CWA in easterly low to mid level flow under H75 MB inversion. Thus there may be more clouds than earlier expected for a mostly cloudy day, and a few solutions break out isolated diurnal light showers Wed afternoon. Will keep it dry for now but increase the cloud cover from the loaded blend. If the clouds materialize, the loaded mid to high 60s for high temps may be a bit optimistic.

Thursday and Friday...The latest Ensembles and upper jet trends continue to suggest that some upper wave/trof energy to try and undercut mid CONUS omega bloc and spill some showers into the area from the west Thursday or Thursday evening. Will bank on upper ridge axis having it's precip corrosive effect and erode it before it get's into the area, but we may have to deal with at least some debris clouds moving in from the west making for not the most sunniest of days. High temps may gain be hindered some by this from their potentail of upper 60s to near 70. Upper trof battle with ongoing omega bloc ridge will make for a showery northern plains and MO RVR Valley Friday, but again will bank on the ridge placement indicated by the latest medium range ensembles to keep this action at bay off to the west of the local fcst area through Friday night.

Saturday through Monday...Some signs in the longer range of the omega ridge breaking down enough to allow the upper trof to sweep in and produce some showers in the area later Saturday or Saturday night if even in a decaying fashion. But again associated cloud cover may keep temps down Saturday, before re-amplifying upper ridge allows for drying and rebounding thicknesses for a warm up to a bit above normal Sunday and especially by next Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Upper low spiraling overhead continue to generate MVFR to low VFR CIGs acrs the area, as well as sctrd light to moderate showers. Some lingering drizzle and MVFR fog where CIGs are low enough into Tue morning. The upper low will continue to weaken and drift off to the eats producing a general decline in spotty precip as Tue progresses, but they might not move off as fast as several models suggest they will. If clouds hang on Tue night longer than expected, hopefully they will be mainly at VFR levels. SFC winds showing little variance through the TAF period from the northeast at 10-15 KTs with diurnal gusts up to 20 KTs.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.