textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly cooler than average temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through Tuesday before a cold front brings increasing chances of showers and storms (30-50%) to the area Wednesday.

- A more active pattern looks to take shape closer to the upcoming weekend, with a few disturbances moving through and increasing humidity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

An area of high pressure will dominate over the Upper Midwest for the rest of today through Tuesday before sliding southeastward Tuesday night. Diurnal cumulus clouds have developed over the area this afternoon, leading to fair weather conditions as temperatures have warmed to the middle 70s, which is slightly cooler than average for this time of the year. There is a weak signal for some showers forming this evening as a weak mid-level shortwave crosses the area, but HRRR, RAP, and RRFS soundings all show a pretty dry layer near the surface, so thinking that if any rainfall were to occur, they would at best be just sprinkles.

A quiet night is expected tonight, as the aforementioned high pressure takes control. Winds should become nearly calm under mostly clear skies, with lows dipping to the lower/middle 50s. Under these conditions, one thing to watch for tonight is the potential for more fog, especially near the Highway 20 corridor. It's not a strong signal by any measure, with both HREF and NBM ensemble probabilities of any visibility reductions only up to 30%, but some models are progging at least some minor fog development.

Tuesday's conditions should be very similar to today, although there might be slightly more cloud cover compared to today ahead of a mid-level shortwave that will push into the area. Dry conditions in the low-levels should keep any daytime precipitation at bay under this shortwave, with high temperatures warming to the upper 70s for most (still slightly below average).

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 149 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Tuesday Night-Wednesday...As the next shortwave shifts into northern Minnesota, a weak surface low and cold front will develop over Minnesota and propagate southeastward towards our CWA. Dewpoints will climb back into the 60s ahead of this front which will act as the main axis for showers and storms to develop Wednesday. The relatively short period of southerly return flow and a weak LLJ should restrict PWAT values to only 1 to 1.5 inches, so rainfall amounts should remain limited. The latest NBM continues to indicate 30-50% chances of measurable rain for much of the CWA. In terms of strong to severe weather potential, the threat is currently low, but daytime heating could allow SBCAPE values to exceed 500 J/kg underneath at least 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear during the afternoon per the latest REFS ensemble. The latest CSU and NSSL machine-learning severe probabilities backs up at least the low potential for a strong to severe storm Wednesday along the front. By late Wednesday evening, PoPs should decrease as the cold front clears the CWA and northerly flow returns.

Thursday-Friday...A weak surface trough on the backside of the low pressure now over the Great Lakes may keep some cloud cover and isolated light showers around on Thursday morning, especially along and east of the Mississippi River. By Thursday afternoon, weak high pressure translates southward into the Northern Plains. The continued northerly flow is forecast to keep temperatures comfortable in the 70s. By Thursday evening, a mid-level shortwave ejects into the Central Plains, deepening a low pressure center over northern Texas. The low amplitude of this trough is expected to limit development of this system on Friday, but a mid-level FGEN band, similar to yesterday's set-up, could produce isolated showers south of Interstate 80 Friday afternoon through Friday night.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure continues to anchor over the Great Lakes region Saturday, keeping conditions quiet. The 22.00z LREF is hinting at a shortwave ridge building over the Upper Mississippi River Valley Saturday night into Sunday as the next longwave trough digs over the Pacific NW. Surface cyclogenesis along the Front Range of the Rockies is growing increasingly likely (50-70%) overnight Saturday into Sunday. Southerly flow ahead of this developing system and ridging could kick off a warming and moistening trend heading into next week noted by the CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook showing a 40-60% chance for above normal temperatures and the 22.00z LREF run having exceedance probabilities of 70-90+% for dew points to climb into the 70s on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies tonight and light/variable winds. Tomorrow, we will see light winds becoming more southerly/southwesterly by 18z. Otherwise, no sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.