textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather will continue through the start of the week, with near to below normal temperatures through Monday. From there, temperatures will fluctuate up and down through the week, but largely remain above normal.

- Elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday.

- Dry conditions are expected through the first half of the week, with a system passing through the region Wednesday into Thursday. This system will have the potential to bring accumulating snow to the area, which may result in impacts for the Thursday AM commute.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

1047+ mb surface high was centered over the Canadian Prairies with the ridge axis extending southward through the Plains. Meanwhile, a deep surface low nearing 980 mb was located off the Mid-Atlantic coast attendant to a potent Nor'Easter bringing heavy snow and blizzard conditions from the Delmarva up through eastern New England. The northerly pressure gradient between these two continues to usher in cold conditions and brisk winds gusting to around 25 mph at times. These winds combined with temperatures in the single digits and teens was leading to wind chills from around zero to 10 below. Be sure the kids are dressed in layers if waiting for the bus this morning.

Early morning satellite shows a considerable amount of stratus lingering over the region with also some pockets/holes of clearing. Guidance is not handling this stratus well at all. Regional VWP data shows 25-30 kts from NNE in the cloud bearing layer (3-4kft agl), and given the extensive stratus still upstream into WI, I have trended the forecast toward more clouds than sunshine at least for this morning. GOES-East water vapor imagery shows a lobe of vorticity dropping south into the area currently. Feeling is that once this passes, increasing subsidence in concert with the low level flow becoming a bit more anticyclonic by this afternoon into evening should foster a decrease in clouds. As for highs today, as clouds go so go temperatures. With some airmass modification / CAA weakening (925 hPa temps progged to increase to -9c to -12c today, versus -12c to -15c yesterday). This mixed to surface moist adiabatically accounting for more clouds supports highs generally in the upper teens to mid/upper 20s, which also is near blend of NBM10th/25th that verified well yesterday. NW winds will remain brisk this morning with gusts to 25 mph before diminishing this afternoon and turning light/variable this evening, as high pressure quickly traverses the region.

Overnight tonight, clouds will increase once again in a developing warm advection regime ahead of our next system. Lows are expected to be in the single digits and teens, with temperatures rising late as strengthening southerly winds turn gusty late.

Tuesday, a clipper system will dive from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes by evening with an attendant surface low tracking from MN into WI. Guidance continues to support the better precipitation chances to our north/northeast aided by the diffluent/divergent left exit region of a 150+ kt jet streak, and thus expect to be mainly dry. NBM blend though continues with just slight chance (20%) PoPs for far NE Iowa and NW Illinois Tuesday afternoon for rain/snow mix. Despite a fair amount of cloudiness on Tuesday, deep mixing into a low level thermal ridge (925 hPa temps of 0c to 4c) supports highs from the lower 40s to lower 50s, except for some 30s possible northwest of Cedar Rapids to Dubuque as existing snow cover modulates this warming potential. In addition, winds will become breezy to windy on Tuesday with wind profiles atop the mixed layer and RAP/HRRR gust fields supportive of 30 to 40 mph, potentially near advisory in south/east of the Quad Cities. These winds and mild temperatures will support elevated fire weather conditions, mainly along/southeast of Cedar Rapids to Dubuque. Will have to keep an eye on winds if they gust higher, and if MinRH trends below going forecast (30-35%) then there could be some potential for critical fire weather conditions.

Tuesday night, a cold front moves through the region with brisk NW winds gusting 20+ mph. Clearing skies and colder air will lead to lows back down in the teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

We continue to monitor the Wednesday night into Thursday morning timeframe for the potential of some accumulating snow. A shortwave diving from the Northern Rockies bringing along pacific moisture with it while traversing a mid-level baroclinic zone and an accompanying jet streak will all be conducive for an Fgen snow band. There remains considerable uncertainty however with the latitudinal location of this fgen band, varying from across our northern service area to even passing to our south and completely missing us. Thus, all we can say this morning is that there's a chance for some snow for parts of the area Wednesday night into Thursday, but amounts (if any?)/location/impacts are details we just don't know yet. The energy is located near 30N/140W in the Pacific early this morning and won't be sampled well for about another 24 hours, so it could take until sometime Tuesday before these details come into better focus. Of note, with the system coming into the Pacific Northwest and the flow flattening downstream it would seem to favor more digging and a more southerly track with the orientation of the left exit of the 100+ kt 300 hPa jet extending from the Rockies into the Southern Plains. So, could we get missed all-together like some solutions suggest, it certainly seems possible. Stay tuned!

Late week into the weekend, the forecast offers some challenges in particular with temperatures as a cold front stalls out in/near the area in zonal flow aloft. Interquartile ranges from NBM are as much as 10-15 degrees between 25th/75th percentiles and this grows to an astounding 20-25+ degrees on Saturday. Suffice it to say, confidence is low on temperatures during this time, and will be highly dependent upon the location of the front. The low to mid level baroclinicity and influx of Pacific energy will eventually translate to an active period and increased precipitation chances late weekend through early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Stratus with higher MVFR to VFR ceilings (2500-4000ft agl) and a few flurries will decrease throughout the day with some high clouds tonight. Northwest winds around 10-15 kt and localized gusts near 20 kt at KMLI and KBRL will diminish this afternoon becoming light and variable this evening, as high pressure quickly moves through. After 06z winds will increase from the south at around 10-15 kt with some gusts near 20 kt west of the Mississippi River. LLWS is possible toward the end of the TAF period mainly at KCID and KDBQ, but being lower confidence and late timing it has been left out for now.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.