textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory today, with gusts between 45-60 mph. Difficult travel expected for high-profile vehicles, especially on north-south oriented roads.

- Light snow late Friday night-early Saturday north of Hwy 30, with minimal impacts.

- Significant winter storm Sunday night-Monday with very strong winds and blowing snow creating near-blizzard conditions. Travel impacts are likely during the Monday AM commute. A winter storm watch has been issued for areas along and north of I-80.

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather on Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Surface observations and RAP mesoanalysis depict a strong 987mb low across east central MN with 10mb 3-hr pressure falls out ahead of it in central WI. Radar mosaics show WAA showers moving through eastern IA ahead of a cold front that is currently near a ALO to DSM line. These showers took some time overnight to finally saturate the column enough to reach the surface, and have also brought some enhanced 50kt wind gusts to our northern CWA (DBQ) just before 06z. Behind the cold front, max wind gusts upstream between 55-65 mph were observed over eastern SD, southwest MN, and northern IA.

Very strong winds and blustery conditions are expected through most of the daylight hours today. The aforementioned cold front will track through the CWA prior to 9am, with WNW/NW winds really beginning to increase in the 3-6 hours behind the fropa with isallobaric surge. The 06z RAP 3-hr pressure change and surface pressure gradient progs have been verifying well overnight and would have the highest probabilities of 50-60mph winds north of I-80. As a result, no spatial changes were made to the current wind headlines with an end time of 3pm this afternoon. Strong CAA and cloud cover to make for a challenging temperature forecast today and have lowered highs only reaching the lower 40s across the north where clouds to linger the longest.

Friday Night-Saturday...models continue to show a narrow fgen band of snow that will spread across portions of Iowa late Friday night into Saturday. Forecast soundings show a rather dry sub cloud layer that could eat into total snowfall amounts. However, there is enough lift/moisture in the DGZ that I wouldn't be surprised to see a very narrow band of 1-2 inches. Have maintained chance PoPs for this occurrence and general consenus in solutions generally favor along and north of Hwy 30. Warm ground and marginal pavement temps will preclude little if any accumulation on roads thus minimal impacts expected.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

An impactful significant winter storm is set to bring strong winds, heavy snow, and blizzard conditions to much of the upper Midwest early next week. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will be possible on the warm side of the system. It just so happens that our CWA gets to experience both types of weather with this system!

A positively tilted trof is forecast to drop into the central Plains and pivot over IA into a closed low over southern WI at 12z Monday. At the same time, a surface low to track over IA and quickly deepen east of the CWA to a sub 984mb over the Great Lakes. This track will place a least of portion of the area (likely south of I80) in the warm sector Sunday and thereby increasing the likelihood of showers and storms. Strong daytime heating, moisture advection, and sufficient deep layer shear has resulted in SPC introducing a Day 3 Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather south of an Ottumwa IA to Freeport IL line. Warm front placement much like the previous week's storms will be key to where the risk will be and will be further refined in later forecasts.

Attention then turns to the cold side of the system and where its subsequent deformation band of snow sets up. Current model solutions suggest this band will pivot somewhere over the CWA and where this happens very strong forcing in the DGZ will result in 1-2"/hr snowfall rates. This results in warning criteria snowfall amounts across a good portion of the forecast area. In addition, the probability of wind gusts over 41 kts from the NBM is already in the 20-40% range which is concerning as the NBM tends to play catch up with regards to wind forecasts in the extended. All this said, blowing snow and reduced visibilities will quickly become a problem along with temperatures falling sharply into the teens before the Monday AM commute. After collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices, a winter storm watch has been issued for this system for areas along and north of I-80 for near-blizzard conditions. Further details and updates will be done in the coming days as this system begins to come onshore in the next 24 hours.

Beyond this system, colder air will advect into the region bringing below normal temperatures through mid-week and another chance of snow Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions expected at all sites except DBQ through the period, with winds the main aviation concern. A strong cold front just to the west of CID at 05z, will push through all the terminals prior to 12z. SSW winds will switch to the WNW/NW behind fropa with frequent gusts over 40kts and even some over 50kts especially at CID/DBQ. Have delayed the strongest winds by 2-3 hrs as the strongest isallobaric surge to arrive in the 11-16z timeframe. Winds to finally subside around 23-01z from west to east as surface low pushes further east.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...High Wind Warning until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068. Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ076-077-087- 088-098. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ078-089-099. IL...High Wind Warning until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015>018-024. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for ILZ025-026-034- 035. MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ009. Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ010.