textproduct: Quad Cities
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A widespread rain will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder. No severe storms are expected.
- A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing very windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible.
- Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 30 are now 50-60 percent.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Dry easterly flow is delaying the onset of rain. The lift is strong so once rain begins developing the areal coverage will increase quickly.
The strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight turning winds around to the northwest. All models show a trop fold moving through the area late Thursday night and Friday. Said feature will result in very windy conditions from midnight through early Friday afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph will be common with localized gusts to 45 mph. The probabilities of wind headlines are currently at 25-30 percent.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
Friday night through Wednesday Assessment...a certainty of frost late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Clearing skies and light winds will result in frost occurring Friday night into Saturday morning. Overall probabilities of a light freeze continue to increase north of Highway 30. Freeze probabilities for those areas are now 50-60 percent.
Frost headlines will be needed in the next 36 hours for the Friday night into Saturday morning time frame. Trends will continue to be watched regarding the possibility of freeze headlines.
Frost will also be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning east of the Mississippi. Unlike Friday night, it is expected to be more isolated.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026
A broad storm system will tighten to a low pressure over northeast Illinois by this evening. This will occur, while a strong high pressure builds southeast into the Plains. The result will be widespread IFR to MVFR conditions in low cigs between 400 and 1000 ft, and visibility variable 1 to 5 miles in rain and fog this afternoon and early evening. As the low moves to northeast Illinois around 00z, winds will switch to northwest and greatly increase to sustained 15 to 20 kts, gusting to 30 to 35 kts, lasting through Friday morning. These cold, stronger winds will be accompanied by mainly MVFR cigs, and possibly some light showers at times. Towards the end of the period, dry air arriving into the region should begin to break up the cloud cover, or at least allow cigs to lift above MVFR levels.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.
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