textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather late this afternoon/evening west of a line from Dubuque to Keokuk. Damaging wind will be the primary threat, with a few stripes of heavy rainfall.

- Dry weekend, with a return of active weather early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A breezy mild day continues over eastern Iowa, Missouri and Illinois this afternoon, with dry weather lasting into early afternoon so far. There is a mid level thete-e advection axis just west of our CWA, which has been associated with a few flare-ups of showers and weak thunderstorms since this morning over central Iowa. This is the feature we will follow for afternoon development as it slowly works into our western CWA. While our atmosphere remains weakly capped over the east 1/2 per our 18Z sounding, farther west, this weak capping is expected to give way to scattered storms this afternoon, with coverage remaining low, but in general the highest probability in our western 1/3 of the CWA. CAPE values of 1200 to 2000 are found over eastern Iowa, with 0-3km shear values under 20kts, mid level lapse rates around 7C/km, and PWATs of 1 to 1.25" this afternoon in Iowa. This combination will allow for some scattered strong, to lower end severe storms at times through early evening.

To our west, the front is located near the Missouri river, with the main low pressure found near southern Manitoba, and secondary low pressure along the front found near southwest Kansas. Thunderstorms, some severe, have formed from near Omaha NE northward to southwest Minnesota as of 130 PM. This frontal zone to our west is expected to become the primary convection focus through 8 PM to our west, but after that time, both the front's progression east and cold pool mergers to our west (becoming a line of storms), will help spread storms east into eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri between 8 PM and 10 PM. From 10 PM to 6 AM, this line is expected to move through our entire area, with a weakening in intensity both due to a loss of CAPE, and increasing speed of the line, resulting in tilting of updrafts to the cool side of the boundary, that nearly always causes the line to begin to bubble/fester east rather than remain solid.

As this line arrives later tonight, wind gusts are the primary threat, with a lower end severe weather threat supported by the mature line, but weakening instability, combined with a stabilizing boundary layer. SPC's outlook generally supports this transition as well.

Rainfall this afternoon through tonight, will be heavy, but rather spotty in nature, with some stripes of 1"+ in our west, and mainly amounts under 0.5" in the east 1/2.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

An upper level low over south-central Canada will bring seasonable conditions and additional precipitation chances through next week before moving to the east.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger through Friday morning as the cold front continues to move through the region. Following the frontal passage, Friday afternoon and Saturday will be clear and dry due to subsidence associated with the 500mb jet around the upper level trough. Highs are expected to remain a few degrees above normal at around 70 degrees.

The next chances for precipitation will come Sunday into Monday as an embedded shortwave translates through the upper level flow. At this point, the greatest uncertainty lies in the track of the associated surface low. Current ensemble mean forecasts place the surface low over eastern Iowa, though some members have it as far west as the IA-NE border. Where this low tracks will determine the precipitation footprint and instability. The eastern low scenario, such as seen in the deterministic GFS, has a plume of IVT up to 500 kg m-1 s-1 advecting into northeast MO/west-central IL while the axis of greatest IVT remains southwest along the IL-KY border. This results in lower QPF totals across the region. In a western low scenario, such as seen in the deterministic ECMWF, QPF increases across the area. While the spread in QPF is still quite large with these scenarios, ensemble means suggest that at least 0.5 inches of rain will be likely (70% chance) area-wide. Similar to QPF, instability will depend on the track of the low. With an eastern low, the axis of greatest MUCAPE is pushed east of the area, while a western low allows for MUCAPE to peak along the MO-IA border into eastern Iowa. Together, these give two potential scenarios: an eastern low that has reduced QPF and thunderstorm chances and a western low with enhanced QPF and thunderstorm chances.

After this embedded shortwave passes through Monday night, zonal flow will return along the southern edge of the upper low. The 500mb jet will remain to the north, leading to broad synoptic subsidence Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for another dry and clear period, with temperatures remaining seasonable for late April.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Breezy conditions will continue through early evening, as south winds are found ahead of an approaching cold front, which will pass through our entire area overnight. A few scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in eastern Iowa, and these are included as a Prob30 for CID and DBQ today. Any storm would bring brief IFR in heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. Storms will move northeast around 35 mph this afternoon. Later this evening, as the front moves east, a more widespread line of storms is expected to move through the area between 03Z west to 08Z east. This line of storms remains a high, 75%+ probability as it moves through the region, with brief heavy rain, strong wind gusts over 40 kts, and low clouds expected with them. Behind the first 20 minutes of storms, rain with some thunder can be expected to continue for 2 to 5 hours.

While timing is not too confident, VFR weather is expected to arrive with dry air / northwest winds, Friday morning around 12Z.

CLIMATE

Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 23: KBRL: 84/1960

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.