textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A large storm system will continue to move through the region today and Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall and breezy southerly winds.

- Isolated severe storms, with a low but non-zero chance of a brief tornado, are possible this afternoon, mainly over portions of southeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois and all of northeast Missouri.

- As the system departs, cooler conditions are expected, and spotty rain showers will be possible at times through Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our rainy and windy storm system continues to translate eastward early this morning, which will continue to support chance of showers (80-100% coverage) and isolated thunderstorms and gusty south- southeast winds today. An amplified upper-level trough, which can be seen very well on the latest GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery over the southern Plains, will lift a PVA maxima/shortwave impulse towards our region today, providing the large-scale forcing for more showers and isolated storms. We can see a complex of showers and isolated storms along the Missouri/Kansas border, which will slowly lift northeastward along with the shortwave. As we've mentioned over the last several days, moisture content with this system is very high for this time of the year, with 1.66" Pwats off the DVN 03.00z sounding. This is well over the daily max value per the SPC sounding climatology for this time of the year, so any showers/storms that develop today will be efficient rainfall producers.

Rain today looks to come in two primary rounds: 1) around sunrise this morning with the ongoing activity near the Kansas City metro, and 2) this afternoon as a surface low currently over central Kansas approaches the area. Some thunderstorms will be possible at times with each round, with a bit more attention given to the afternoon activity as this could generate some strong to severe storms ahead of the surface low. The convective parameter space shows some decent 0-3 km CAPE values around 100-150 J/kg per some guidance, with some decent shear profiles due to both a mid- and low-level jet in place. Both the HRRR and RRFS suggest sufficient low-level curved hodographs, so enough low-level shear exists to support a tornado threat. With this said, SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk, level 1 of 5, of severe storms for portions of southeast Iowa, west-central Illinois, and all of northeast Missouri. In addition to the showers and storms, it should also be a breezy day, thanks to a tight surface pressure gradient in place ahead of the approaching surface low. South-southeast winds will be gusting around 25 to 35 mph in most locations. Forecast highs are in the middle to upper 60s today, thanks to the persistent southerly winds.

Showers and isolated storms will likely continue (60-90% coverage) into the evening hours tonight before the main shortwave lifts out of the area after midnight tonight. As it does an upper-level closed low will develop within the primary trough, meaning the trough progression will slow down. We will continue to see cloudy skies Wednesday, along with some occasional showers (20-50% chances) as we remain under the general cyclonic flow around the closed upper low. Subtle cold air advection will also support some continued wind gusts, although not as strong as today, with gusts around 20 to 25 knots. High temperatures are forecast to dip into the middle to upper 50s for Wednesday, thanks to the cloud cover and occasional showers.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 155 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The latter half of the work week will start off on a cloudy note Wednesday night through Thursday, due to the continued cyclonic flow over the region. Some guidance suggests we could even see some sunshine Thursday, but with the upper-level system/cyclonic flow still in place, I've leaned towards a mostly cloudy forecast. Some occasional showers also remain possible. Things look to finally dry out by Friday as an area of high pressure and upper-level ridging develops. We appear more likely to see some peeks of sunshine by then.

As we look ahead towards the upcoming weekend into early next week, there's not much of note, thanks to an amplified upper-level ridge that's progged to develop over the Intermountain West states. This will help block any shortwaves from translating over our region, resulting in a dry forecast. Average to slightly above average temperatures will be common during this time frame, with highs in the middle to upper 50s and lows in the upper 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

There is an initial round of showers and thunderstorms lifting across the area this morning and impacting all TAF sites with MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Isolated thunderstorms are possible at all TAF sites through 15 UTC with higher confidence in TSRA at KCID, KBRL, and KMLI where tempo groups were used. Ceilings across the area are generally 1 to 2 kft and are expected to remain MVFR through the period with occasional IFR in the strongest showers and thunderstorms. Another round of thunderstorms is possible this afternoon especially at KMLI and KBRL. There will be south winds of 10 to 20 knots and gusts up to 28 knots especially through this morning with gusts up to 25 knots possible the remainder of the day. Showers are forecast to slowly exit the area from west to east after 03 UTC Wednesday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.