textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- One to two-hour period of accumulating snow and resulting slippery travel likely (>60%) late this evening for parts of the area north of U.S. Highway 30.

- Temperatures will hover around seasonal values, with a few fluctuations, through mid week. Then high temperatures may warm above normal by late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 815 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Confidence has increased based on observational trends and conceptual model application in a short-lasting but accumulating snow event for the northern CWA, primarily north of U.S. Highway 30, through midnight or 1 A.M.

Satellite water vapor imagery and diagnostic model analysis of an upper level potential vorticity (PV) anomaly indicate a sheared but modestly strong wave across southern Minnesota into far northern Iowa. On its leading edge is a zone of forcing for ascent near to within the DGZ layer aloft resulting in a narrow (county to county and a half wide) band of snow that is propagating east-southeast into the northern CWA. Upstream observations have indicated temporary one half mile visibilities, and even one (Charles City, IA) indicating a brief one quarter mile dip. Webcams from near and just east of I-35 earlier this evening confirmed such a visibility drop and showed a quick coating of snow having occurred on the on/off ramps. This is not surprising with surface temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s. Behind this wave, there will still be broad but weak lift and more saturation depth than what is seen currently, and that probably will yield patchy flurries in the CWA.

Updated forecast messaging and grids have been pushed, and will watch to see if a short SPS will be needed. The limited duration (30-90 mins in an area) and time of occurrence not overlapping typical busy travel times should help to limit impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

After an afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures warming to the middle 20s along the Highway 20 corridor to the lower 30s across our far south. Attention will quickly turn to increasing chances of light snow (20-40%) along and north of Interstate 80 this evening into the early overnight hours as a clipper system crosses the area. Models have been pretty consistent in the potential for a banded precipitation signature, likely due to 925-850 mb layer FGEN forcing. The 02.12z HREF ensemble soundings suggests a good bit of dry air in the low-levels, which should limit snow amounts despite a saturated dendritic growth zone (DGZ) aloft. Confidence remains pretty high that amounts should remain limited (up to a half inch of snow is possible), but with the snow coming during the overnight hours, some of the snow may stick on roadways, so just something to be cognizant about for slick spots and reduced visibilities tonight. Even after we lose ice crystals aloft, the dry air in place appears likely to limit any freezing drizzle issues tonight in the wake of the snow. Overnight lows should dip to the lower teens along Highway 20 to near 20 degrees along and south of Highway 34.

Tuesday will be similar to today in terms of temperatures, with highs likely in the lower 20s along Highway 20, with lower 30s south of Interstate 80. With continued northerly cyclonic flow aloft, we'll have to see how quickly the clouds dissipate as we will have the low-level thermal inversion lingering. Models appear to diminish cloud cover pretty quickly after sunrise, but similar to this morning, the stratocu could linger longer than guidance suggests. Confidence is at least high for dry conditions either way for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Looking to a dry middle of the week as the longwave trough over our CWA continues to drift towards the southeast and ridging builds in over the western CONUS. This will provide large-scale subsidence across Iowa through Thursday. A surface high to the northwest will keep winds light and out of the north, keeping temperatures slightly below average as radiational cooling can maximize Tuesday night.

Thursday through Friday... A strong NW-SE oriented jet streak will advect down across the northern Great Plains allowing for a deepening of the Hudson Bay low. Surface winds will shift out of the south ahead of the approaching cold front, and according to the LREF, there is a 90% chance that temperatures will reach above freezing either Thursday afternoon or Friday morning across the entire CWA. This trend comes to an end on Friday afternoon as the cold front pushes south, returning the CWA to northwesterly flow. There is disagreement among ensemble models on the southward extent of precipitation with this event due to mid-level dry air advection and the amplitude of the 500 mb trough. Therefore, PoPs are currently restricted to 10% across the northeastern CWA.

Saturday through Sunday... There is uncertainty in the timing of the next clipper system, but there appears to be agreement among ensemble models of a surface high anchoring to our north and east. This will introduce a southerly component to the wind, allowing for the warming trend to continue through Sunday with highs potentially reaching the low-to-mid 40s across the southwestern CWA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

An MVFR stratocu cloud deck continues to linger over our southern portions of the area, including the BRL TAF terminal. These MVFR ceilings are expected to persist at least through the evening hours to late tonight. To the north, a high cirrus deck has expanded across the area ahead of an incoming clipper system that is expected to move over our northern areas this evening into late tonight. Due to limited moisture, any precipitation that occurs will be very light snow. We will continue to include a PROB30 group for DBQ as chances remain very low south of there. MVFR conditions may materialize with this snow. There may be some patchy freezing drizzle in the wake of the clipper, but confidence remains quite low in this occurring.

Eventually, VFR conditions should return Tuesday morning, although how quickly the cloud cover diminishes remains uncertain as models have struggled resolving cloud cover in the morning hours lately.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.