textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering Marginal Risk for a few severe storms especially east through this evening.

- There is a another Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms in the southwest for Wednesday night.

- Moisture surging north from the Gulf the second half of the week with a high (>80%) probability of two moderate to heavy rainfall events. Another round of severe storms possible on Thursday as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Tonight...Several sources including RADAR imagery showing the main cold front currently slipping southeastward acrs the southeast third of the DVN CWA and still allowing for storms to fester in lingering pre-frontal higher CAPE fields along the I-80 corridor and possibly into west central IL. Some of these storms may still flare up to severe levels over the next few hours in our far east and southeast. Other post-frontal banded convection scraping the far northeastern CWA over the next 1-2 hours and have some near term POPS for both processes. North to northeast sfc winds/BL flow to increase and take over the entire area this evening and overnight, with cool advection nature cooling low temps down into the mid 40s south to the mid 30s north. Then broad southwesterlies to shuttle another vort max aloft toward the southern CWA by late tonight, helping induce an overrunning showers and possibly some embedded thunder up acrs the far southern CWA toward midnight, and continued a northward creep toward I-80 through Wed morning. Suppose small hail would be possible with any stronger cell tonight, with rainfall amounts generally 0.25 to a half inch acrs the southern third of the CWA by 12z Wed.

Wednesday...The showers may wane in the south as the day progresses, but fcst soundings show a very pronounced inversion at H85 to H8 MB and may trap in low clouds and keep temps on the cool side in the 40s to low 50s. Brisk east sfc winds of 15 to 25 MPH will put an edge to the feel of the day as well. Then on Wednesday night a more defined upper wave will propagate out of the southwest CONUS and shear it's way toward the MO RVR Valley by Thu morning. Strong southwesterly LLJ feed of 40-50 KTs with THTA-E advection will bring about another round of elevated WAA type showers and storms spreading up acrs the local area from the southwest. There will be somewhat better vertical thermodynamic and shear profiles to support some elevated hailers especially late and west to southwest, lingering into early Thu morning. With the boundary trying to retreat back northward through the region as a warm front, a non- diurnal sfc temp trend should unfold with rising temps overnight and 12 hour lows occurring Wed evening just after 00z.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An unsettled pattern continues through the remainder of this week. Multiple rounds of precipitation are expected Thursday through Saturday before a drier period returns Sunday into Monday.

A seasonably strong system will be moving through the area on Thursday, bringing widespread moderate to heavy rain. This system has notable moisture available, with IVT values of 800-1000 J kg m-1 s-1 and mean PWATs of 1.3-1.4 inches. Synoptic lift in the warm sector of the low will allow for much of this moisture to be precipitated as rain all day Thursday. The axis of heaviest precipitation has continued to shift northwest as the models reach consensus on the track of the low. If this axis continues to shift northwestward, the current expectations of 1-2 inches of rain across the area may decrease. An SPC Level 1 of 5 (Marginal) covers much of the area on Thursday due to instability and slight low level shear.

Once this system leaves the region late Thursday night, a brief respite of drier weather will be in place Friday before a second system associated with an upper level trough pushes through Friday night into Saturday. While the moisture available for precipitation is less than the Thursday system with an IVT of 600-800 J kg m-1 s-1 and mean PWATs of 1.2-1.3 inches, it is expected to bring additional rainfall to the area. This rainfall will be lighter, with 48hr-QPF not expected to exceed 1 inch across the area (50% and lower chance of exceedance) through Saturday. Models suggest that moisture and instability capable of supporting thunderstorms, including some severe, may be present across the area on Friday, though uncertainty in where these ingredients may set up across the area remains. If thunderstorms do develop, there will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Following the cold frontal passage, Sunday looks to be cool and dry as a high settles in the central Plains. On Monday, an embedded shortwave may bring some active weather, though uncertainty at this time lies in how much moisture will be available.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Thunderstorms hanging on and being a nuisance in the VCNTY of MLI through 19-21z or so as a cold front squeezes acrs the area from the northwest. Clouds will vary from low VFR to MVFR on either side of the front, but more MVFR post-frontal as the sfc winds veer northwest to north and become gusty. Then most of the area to be dry this evening and post-frontal with MVFR to VFR CIGS and continued veering of the sfc winds to the northeast and remaining gusty. For the overnight, will have to watch the BRL site for overrunning showers and embedded thunderstorms spreading up from the south and producing MVFR to IFR conditions after 1 AM CDT Wed morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.