textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of fog will be possible late tonight into Monday morning. HREF has 20-40% probabilities for fog across west central Illinois, far southeast Iowa and far northeast Missouri.

- Anomalously warm temperatures will be seen through at least Wednesday. Record highs are possible Monday (2/16) along with the potential for record warm lows Monday through Wednesday (2/16-2/18). Refer to the climate section for further information.

- While there are precipitation chances in the forecast for the second half of next week, they will be spotty in nature which will increase precipitation deficits, worsen drought conditions and result in an elevated fire risk.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Dry conditions and anomalously warm conditions will be seen through Monday. The developing warm front will result in an increase in cloud cover late tonight into Monday morning, especially along and north of the warm front. HREF again has 20-40% probabilities across west central Illinois, far southeast Iowa and far northeast Missouri for a fog risk late tonight into Monday morning. The HRRR is starting to trend that way but the trend has not been consistent. Given rising dew points overnight with a developing warm front, prudence dictates adding at least a patchy fog mention for that area. The potential for a fog headline is there but the probability currently looks to be 10-20%. Overnight trends will need to be watched for a potential fog headline.

Skies are expected to clear late Monday morning and afternoon which will help boost temperatures to or near record highs for February 16th.

Winds will be on the increase as southerly flow increases late Monday morning and into the afternoon. The combination of dry fuels, wind and very warm temperatures will create an elevated fire risk for Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Monday night/Tuesday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence for anomalously warm temperatures.

The anomalously warm temperatures and dry conditions will continue Monday night into Tuesday. While no record highs will be seen on Tuesday, record warm lows are possible based on where the warm front is located. The ECMWF EFI now has values of 0.65 to 0.8 across the area for low temperatures Monday night.

As mentioned yesterday, the Great Lakes are a large cold sink which will initially inhibit the northward advance of the warm front. Indeed, today closer examination of the various model solutions show the warm front stalling at the southern edge of Lake Michigan with an inferred WNW extension up to roughly Highway 30 across eastern Iowa.

Tuesday night/Wednesday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of anomalously warm conditions. Low (<25%) confidence on rain chances.

The anomalously warm conditions continues. The ECMWF EFI has values running from 0.6 to 0.7 for anomalously warm low temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday.

The model consensus has increased the rain chances for Tuesday night to 30-60% while drying out Wednesday. The increase is attributed to the much wetter deterministic GFS solution and more of the GEFS members turning wetter. Interestingly, the deterministic runs of the other global models are much drier as are many of their ensemble members.

The moisture source for this rain is coming from a plume over the eastern Pacific. However, this plume will go across the southern Rockies and southern Plains so there are legitimate questions as to how much moisture will be available for rain. If rain occurs, the better chances would be along/north of the progged warm front over the northern third of the area. South of the front I suspect rain chances will be very spotty if they occur at all.

Wednesday night/Thursday Assessment...low (<25%) confidence on precipitation

As expected yesterday, Wednesday night has now trended dry. All models show no lift occurring across the area to help generate precipitation. The probability of a record warm low for February 18th is a near certainty with the ECMWF EFI at 0.8 to 0.9.

Thursday is another matter. The global models have a seasonably strong system moving through the area, but, there are track differences and slight timing differences.

The ECMWF takes the low center through central Iowa while the CMC moves through Illinois. The GFS takes the low track directly across the area. The question is the rain potential. The better moisture plume is in the Ohio Valley so any moisture for the system will be transported by the surface low.

Right now the model consensus has a 30% chance for rain Thursday. The trend is slightly lower (around 5%) from the previous forecast. Given the lack of a better moisture source associated with the low, rain chances may drop further over the coming days.

Thursday night through Sunday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on cooler temperatures. Low (20-30%) confidence on precipitation

The model solutions are starting to converge regarding the track and timing of the next system Thursday night into Friday. Beyond Friday, the eventual track of the system becomes important regarding the sensible weather Friday night through Sunday.

The key messages for late week and next weekend are 1) cooler temperatures will be seen across the area albeit still warmer than normal, and 2) there is a potential for some snow.

The ECMWF has backed off on having a strong system. Instead it has two seasonably strong systems; one Thursday night into Friday and another Saturday into Saturday night. The first system would initially bring rain and then rain changing to snow as the cold advection takes over on Friday. The second system would be either a rain/snow mix or snow.

The CMC/UKMET are similar to the ECMWF; an initial shot of rain Thursday night with rain changing to snow on Friday. Unlike the ECMWF, the CMC/UKMET does not have a second system over the weekend.

The ICON model deterministic solution is more disturbing. It has an initial round of rain Thursday night but the rain quickly changes to snow late Thursday night into Friday with potential accumulations. However, like the CMC/UKMET there is no second system over the weekend.

Synoptically, there will be a respectable surge of moisture moving north from the Gulf Thursday night into Friday to supply moisture to the system. However, the strongest moisture surge is targeting the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.

So, giving the track differences and whether or not there is one or two systems, the model consensus is pegging Thursday night as the best chances for precipitation at 20-50%. Friday through Saturday night have widespread 20% precipitation chances with Sunday being dry.

The prospects for a rain/snow mix increase late Thursday night into Friday with a better prospect for some snow Friday night into Saturday as temperatures turn even colder.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1049 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be the primary concern. Initially with a nocturnal LLJ we'll see a period of LLWS at CID and DBQ 06z-14z with winds increasing to around 40 kt from the SW near 2kft agl while remaining around 10 kt or less from the S/SE. With mixing into some of these stronger winds aloft on Monday, surface winds will become gusty from the W/SW with gusts 20-30 kt diminishing in the afternoon particularly near CID and DBQ as a weak cool front approaches. The boundary will likely stall Monday night near DBQ resulting in light and variable winds there, while light S/SE winds up to 10 kt are expected at the rest of the TAF sites.

CLIMATE

Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Record high temperatures for February 16th

Burlington, IA.......68 in 1921 Cedar Rapids, IA.....67 in 1921 Dubuque, IA..........60 in 1921 and previous years Moline, IL...........60 in 1921

Record warm lows for February 16th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1882 Moline, IL...........38 in 1998 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 17th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.