textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front has moved through, with gradually lower humidity arriving.

- High pressure will bring a period of much needed quiet and dry weather through much of Sunday and Monday.

- A shortwave will drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night into early Wednesday, bringing the chance for overnight storms. Some storms may be strong to severe, with severe winds being the main concern.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The excessive humidity if finally dropping this afternoon! Another in a nightly series of eastward moving MCS moved across northern Missouri and far southern Iowa through Noon, and into west central IL through 1 PM. This storm cluster brought a period of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning to our southern most counties, while to the north, a few surface based showers and weak storms fired along the cold front around Noon. Both of these areas are decaying and moving out of the area early this afternoon, while dew point temperatures are finally dropping below 70 in our northwest counties. This less humid, but still summer feeling air will be widespread into our area this evening and Monday, with dew points in the 60s. Normally, we wouldn't call that dry, but after continuous weeks of 75+ dew points, and some periods of lower 80 dew points, this air will feel marvelous.

Tonight, skies will clear out, and northwest winds will continue to blow around 5-7mph. This should reduce the nightly fog potential we have seen, but with wet soils, this will need to be watched for highlighting in our forecast tonight.

Monday, a true quiet weather day is forecast, with high pressure, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, and comfortable humidity is forecast. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s will keep a summer feel to the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 152 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Tuesday will see a temporary return to higher humidity ahead of another cold front arriving Tuesday night. This increased humidity may fuel showers and thunderstorms as early as late morning. This activity would likely be the decaying / remnants of upstream activity overnight. In any case, cloud cover is looking plentiful Tuesday ahead of the front, and highs are only in the upper 70s to low 80s. Afternoon and evening storms remain 50-80% probability, as the cold front moves through, along with a seasonally strong short wave, passing just north of the area. Storms will be supported by deep layer shear around 30-40kts, which supports a wind threat, and line organization. Details such as exact timing, mesoscale details that may enhance or reduce shear will be available in better confidence tomorrow. For now, we will stick with SPC products to advertise this severe storm threat, which is level 2/5.

Pleasant, mainly dry weather is forecast beyond Tuesday, with far drier air in place, and cooler temperatures. This is all in northwest flow aloft. This pattern will also bring cooler air aloft, so some instability showers will be possible at times. The daily fog and relentless humidity should be absent for this extended period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A cold front is moving through our area at the start of the period, and will be east of terminals by 18z. Otherwise, with plenty of moisture around some showers remain possible today, with northwest winds of 10-15 kts expected, and a few gusts to 20 mph this afternoon. Rain will continue just south of BRL for a few hours, but little lightning threat exists at this time.

Drier air will slowly arrive today, with MVFR cigs becoming VFR early this afternoon, and remaining mostly VFR tonight and Monday morning. Still, with wet ground, we will potentially still deal with some shallow fog into early Monday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.