textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe Weather Risks continue for the area this afternoon though tonight, with the strongest storms more likely in our south.

- Besides a few light showers/sprinkles Saturday afternoon, it will be cooler and drying out this weekend, with sub freezing lows expected Monday night.

- Another widespread rainfall event is gaining confidence for mid to late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Storms...Water vapor imagery indicating upper low rolling acrs the northern plains, with signs of mid and upper jet energy rounding it and sprawling out acrs the MO RVR Valley. Vort max embedded in southwesterly cyclonic flow also approaching, and with southwesterly 40-50 KT LLJ flow already in place, the deep lift machine is increasing. Sfc boundary and tight instability gradient seen on sfc Obs and Visible satellite imagery(with increasing CU fields) undulating acrs northern MO and into central IL/IN. Expect strong to severe storms to develop along this feature over the next few hours as well as severe watches. There will be tornadic potential, large hail and damaging downdraft winds for cells propagating on or along the front as it tries to retreat north. As cells get farther north and become elevated still feeding on the strong LLJ, they will become primarily hailers. Several CAM runs and the WoFS runs continue to suggest convective initiation acrs the far southern tier of counties of the DVN CWA or just south of there, with storm motion northeastward to the boundary where they may then grind out large hail and a possible tornado. More coverage may occur acrs west central IL and then spread northward toward I-80 through 7-8 PM, evolving into hailers as the move north of the boundary. This while a larger line of NNE-to-SSW oriented storms organize and push acrs central IA into the southern plains.

After the evening sctrd to isolated storms, will then have to deal with the above mentioned incoming linear convective system moving into the western CWA after 8 PM or so. The warm front may be held to quiasi-stationary status along or just north of the Hwy 34 corridor in our south, thus bulk of the line may be elevated in nature and have trouble doing true severe weather as it moves acrs. But again will have to watch where this line T-bones the boundary and points south for enhanced LLVL shear in those areas for damaging winds and overnight tornadoes.

A PWAT feed of 1.2 to near 1.5 inches will support heavy rainfall at high rates, but like the previous shift noted the storms will be moving quick(especially the elevated ones in strong low to mid level wind fields) and thus shorter residence time. But there may be some repeated activity acrs certain areas, or if the overnight squall line slows, there will be the potentail for localized flooding especially in urban areas. The true heavier rainfall/flooding threats may occur just off to the northwest, and east-southeast of the DVN CWA through Sat morning. Post-frontal lows by Sat morning ranging from the upper 30s west, to the mid and upper 40s far east/southeast.

Saturday...A cooler, blustery post-frontal day with west-northwest sfc winds gusting up to 30 MPH and highs in the mid 40s to low 50s. With cool pool aloft, instability clouds should grow conditions to mostly clouds as the day progresses, and there may be some support for sctrd light showers and sprinkles zipping acrs the area by afternoon. Saturday night lows in the 30s if we clear out.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Sunday-Tuesday...Generally continued cooler and more seasonable through mid next week, with a return flow and ridge-rider wave induced precip event possible some time late Tue into next Wed. There also remains the concern for frost/freeze potential especially Mon night/Tue AM due to recent green-up that will need to be evaluated in later forecasts.

The signal for southwest flow aloft, and yet another broad moist warm advection rain event is gaining support in all extended guidance and ensemble data for the Thursday into Friday time period. Once again, QPF may be support of an above normal period in the next 7 days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A storm system is forecast to lift from northwest Missouri northeastward into Lake Michigan by 12 UTC on Saturday. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area through 06 UTC. This will bring periods of MVFR to IFR conditions to the area. Placed prob30s at KCID, KDBQ, and KMLI through 3 UTC to account for lower confidence in location of scattered storms and used a tempo at KBRL through 4 UTC. A line of thunderstorms is forecast to move across the area from west to east from about 3 UTC to 8 UTC with periods of LIFR conditions in the strongest storms. Rain showers will end by 09 UTC. MVFR conditions are forecast to linger through 18 UTC Saturday. Gusty east winds will turn to the west behind a cold front in the 12 to 15 UTC window with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.