textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very windy conditions developing today and lasting into Friday with headlines issued.

- The strong winds and milder temperatures will produce elevated fire danger this afternoon and into the evening.

- Light rain passing across tonight, but a potential stronger storm system looms for late in the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Winds...Vigorous upper wave currently seen on water vapor entering the Pacific NW will be the clipper system that digs down acrs the central GRT LKS by midday Friday. Ensemble projections still have it deepening to around 985 MB as it propagates acrs northern LK MI by Friday morning, with impressive tight cyclonic pressure gradient ringing around it from the sfc and aloft. Thus this feature still in line to be a wind machine acrs the upper MS RVR Valley later to day and through much of Friday. Low to mid level jets wrapping around it also very impressive with fcst soundings showing near 90 KTs at H7 MB and 115 KTs at H5 mb around 12z Friday morning. Withe developing inversions, precip loading, time of day and other parameters varying and making it a challenge for how much momentum can transfer to the sfc. With several soundings showing up to 70 KTs at 2000 FT AGL up to H85 MB late tonight into Friday morning, if these conditions where occurring during the afternoon a High Wind Warning would be the obvious choice. And it still may be necessary for portions of the CWA(north half to third) by Friday morning if post-frontal isallobaric surge and more optimum LLVL lapse rates materialize like some of the CAMs suggest. Also add in possible evaporative precip loading into such a strong LLVL jet, and gravity waves off a deepening low. But other soundings and models show some inversion hindrances as well and are not quite as strong with the LLVL wind fields.

Thus far now have issued a high end Wind Advisory for areas generally acrs the northeast two thirds of the DVN CWA with the caveat that it may need to be upgraded eventually to a High Wind Warning especially late tonight, and a more typical wind headline for the southwest. Have a start time earlier for the western portion by late afternoon to account for a pre-frontal south to southwest sfc wind surge with gusts to 45+ MPH acrs the areas by early evening. The second eastern sector starting later after 9PM for the pre-frontal surge arriving later. Both sector also to take into account the wind switch to the west-northwest and potential post- frontal isallobaric sfc wind surge of up to 55 MPH at least. Again, there may be a few 60 MPH mix downs during this late night for a few hours after the main FROPA mainly north of I-80. Will continue the wind headlines into early to mid Friday afternoon, but they may be able to be dropped a few hours early with gradient relax and quick LLVL cyclone pull out to acrs the southern James Bay region by Friday evening.

Fire Danger...The high winds, milder temps being advected in, and ongoing plentiful dried vegetation will make for an elevated fire danger today and almost near Red Flag Warning criteria if the RH's where lower. But will hold off any fire headline but still message the elevated danger and a day to avoid burning especially this afternoon and evening. With the strong winds continuing to increase into the evening, any fire danger could last well after dark if one were to get established and become wind swept.

Precip...Limited moisture draw up into the strong clipper will make for minor precip amounts with most areas getting a tenth of an inch or less. Thermal profiles suggest mainly light rain tonight, but there could be some evapo-induced rain-snow mix pockets especially after midnight. Interesting that if a more discrete shower where to get going Friday morning in better LLVL lapse rates, they could exhibit squall-like behavior in the strong wind fields. Better chance for this hopefully more off to the northeast acrs WI.

Temperatures...Pre-frontal warming and mixing to help make for a nice diurnal swing in temps with highs making it to the low to mid 50s by late afternoon acrs the southwest half. Post-frontal low temps at 12z Friday morning mainly back down in the 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Friday and Saturday...Cooler under passing sfc ridge lobe during the day. At night, LLVl baroclinicity aligns parallel under broad low amplitude northwest steering flow acrs the mid CONUS. Weak upper vort shuttle in this flow will look to induce occasional bouts of light isentropic lift induced precip late Friday night into Saturday. This may be mainly in the form of light snow until Sat afternoon. Spotty nuisance stuff while out trying to catch a leprechaun. Highs Saturday held down in the 40s to low 50s.

Saturday Night and beyond...plenty of time and additional model runs to come, but the watch will be on for how a larger slug of upper wave energy comes together and phases acrs the mid CONUS for a potential impactful early spring storm system that may impact a lot of real estate acrs the Midwest especially Sunday into Monday. Then resultant high amplitude flow behind whatever storm can form could bring mid winter-like temps back down acrs the region for early to mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Quiet VFR morning for the TAF cycle under passing ridge of high pressure. But then a strong clipper low pressure system is still on track to skirt into the heart of the GRT LKS by midday Friday, bringing strong wind fields wrapping around it acrs the region. South to Southwesterly sfc winds will continue to increase and gust to 30 KTs or higher by late afternoon especially on the IA side, and continue to increase and spread east as the evening progresses. A high mechanical turbulence evening and overnight tonight as southwest LLVl jet winds at 2000 FT AGL increase to 50-65 KTs! One uncertainty is an incoming band of light rain from west to east, possibly mixed with a bit of snow at times from 11 PM to 4 AM. The question is what kind of CIGs it will lower too. It may be down to higher level MVFR at best with the precip with dry lower levels to overcome, but a few solutions drop a band of sub-2000 FT AGL stratocu acrs CID and DBQ toward midnight. Don't expect the light precip to reduce VSBYs much more that 5-6SM especially if the rain hangs on longer with less snow. Wind change to the west with high isallobaric wind surge possible to 50 KTs for 1-2 hours post-frontal from 08-12z at DBQ and CID.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-087-088-098. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Friday for IAZ042-053-054-065>068-078-089-099. IL...Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Friday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for MOZ009. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 PM CDT Friday for MOZ010.