textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant early Fall weather is forecast through next week, with mainly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A mid-level shortwave and attendant surface front is serving as the focus for showers across parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest, with even a few storms occurring across parts of MN/WI. Much of the forcing and deeper moisture looks to pass to our north tonight, but a glancing brush of ascent could result in some sprinkles or brief very light rain for some of the far northern counties late this evening and early overnight. Otherwise, we'll see a bout of mid/high cloudiness followed by perhaps some spotty lower clouds late tonight and Sunday morning along the cold front traversing the area. Lows will be a bit of challenge tonight with initially clear skies, light winds and dry air allowing for a quick drop before clouds and a southerly wind likely bring a halt or even rise in temperatures before dropping back again late. Overall, anticipate lows in the 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Much of next week looks to remain fairly quiet with northwesterly flow aloft, but high 500 hPa heights, as we reside in-between a broad expanse of high pressure out west and troughing over eastern NOAM. Given the prevailing northwest flow, moisture via the Gulf or eastern Pacific will be limited, thus we're expecting mainly dry conditions into at least Thursday. This is great news for our farmers who are wanting fields to dry to resume harvest. Plenty of solar insolation and at times gusty winds will be favorable to accelerate soil drying. Temperatures will be influenced by the passage of a couple of weak fronts, but overall look to be near to above normal with highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s. Given 850 hPa temperature anomalies at or above 75th percentile and generally ranging from +2C to +8C, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple of days (Tuesday/Wednesday) being warmer with a westerly and gusty component to the winds owing to favorable downsloping off the High Plains.

Late in the week there is the potential for rain chances to return, as the flow aloft turns more zonal allowing for an influx of shortwave energy and eastern Pacific moisture. Confidence on timing and rain chances is low, however the good news is should any rain occur it looks to be light with CMC/GFS ensembles probabilities at 20% or less for >0.10".

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period. A system will pass mainly to our north bringing mostly a transitory bout of mid/high cloudiness. There is a low chance for sprinkles or a brief light shower at KDBQ 04z-07z, but probabilities are too low for mention. Should any rain occur it is not expected to be impactful. Otherwise, perhaps the primary challenge is winds. They have been occasionally gusty from the SSE this afternoon at 12-20 kt, particularly west of the Mississippi River. These will subside to light/variable this evening, then turn predominantly from the SW at 5-10 kt overnight ahead of a cold front. The front looks to pass 10z-15z Sunday with winds shifting from the NW and increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Gustiness (to around 20 kt) could be more prevalent on Sunday, and later shifts may need to add. In addition, there could be some pockets of lower clouds with the front Sunday AM, which could be MVFR bases but currently not anticipating any lower CIGs with probabilities <20% for MVFR.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.