textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold temperatures expected tonight and Friday morning, with dangerously cold wind chills of 25 below to around 40 below zero. An Extreme Cold Warning is now in effect for the entire area for late tonight through Friday morning.

- Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills will linger through the weekend, but may not be quite as cold as tonight/Friday morning. As a result, an Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect from Friday afternoon until Saturday afternoon.

- A winter storm will pass through the southern CONUS Friday through the weekend, but is trending northward. Snow chances have increased to 30-60% with the highest chances across our far south/east, however GEFS/ECS/NBM probabilities for measurable precipitation (>.01) would support a further increase in snow chances particularly south of I-80. Accumulation potential of a few inches appears possible, particularly across our southern counties.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Much more tranquil conditions greet us early this morning in the wake of an Arctic front, which has pushed through the St Louis area. Some stratus lingers about in the cyclonic flow into parts of E Iowa. Upstream another Arctic boundary extends from MN into ND, which will sweep across the area this afternoon into evening. This will foster additional stratus and overall skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy. Forecast soundings show much of the stratus in the DGZ and thus will be capable of a little flakage. Meanwhile, sufficient low level instability/steep lapse rates and moisture are present for some scattered light snow shower potential along the leading edge of the Arctic front - although soundings have trended slightly drier and thus not expecting these to be anywhere near the magnitude of what was observed last evening. Winds may occasionally gust from the west/southwest ahead of the front and combined with some sunshine may get high temperatures back at or even a bit above freezing across the south. High temperatures will drop off to the north with highs only in the teens to around 20 due to snow cover, more clouds initially and an earlier frontal passage.

As the Arctic air invades this afternoon and evening it will be accompanied by brisk winds with BUFR soundings and wind gust forecasts from HRRR and RAP supportive of a period of 30 kt to perhaps around 35 kt on gusts for a few hour period before settling into more of a range of 20-25+ kt through the rest of tonight. Can't rule out some transient blowing/drifting of snow during the period of strongest winds this afternoon into early evening along and just behind the front, mainly north of Hwy 30 where residual snow cover exists. Expect rapidly falling temperatures well below zero tonight with negative teens below zero near/north of I-80. These temperatures combined with the gusty winds will lead to dangerously cold wind chills in the range of -25F to around -40F overnight (coldest near the Hwy 20 corridor) through midday on Friday. As a result, the watch was upgraded to an Extreme Cold Warning areawide 06z-09z through 18z on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The wind will be decreasing Friday afternoon into Saturday morning, as high pressure moves into the region, so wind chills may remain above warning criteria (-25F to -30F) and so the Extreme Cold Watch could be converted to a Cold Weather Advisory during this time. There is some uncertainty pertaining to cloud cover from the winter storm developing across the southern U.S. with potential impacts on temperatures. If more cloudiness occurs (jet dynamics and moisture aloft favorable for mid/high clouds impacting radiational cooling) then temperatures will likely not be quite as cold and potentially could stay above advisory levels (-15F to -25F far south, -20F to -29F elsewhere). However, if the system tracks further south resulting in less cloud cover, or if winds trend a bit stronger then it could end up colder and potentially near warning criteria for some areas. Due to the uncertainty we didn't want to commit to upgrading during this timeframe just yet and have kept the Extreme Cold Watch in effect from Friday PM through Saturday PM. Otherwise, nearly all of the attention this weekend will be with what is looking to be a significant winter storm set to impact the south/east CONUS from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain. What remains from 24 hours ago is that several models continue to support more phasing of the energy within the 500 mb trough, and thus swipe the area with the northern edge of what looks to be a fairly large expansive precipitation shield given favorable jet dynamics and broad isentropic ascent. It will be plenty cold to where any precipitation would be snow, with chances having nudged upward to now 30-60% with the highest chances south of I-80 for Saturday PM and Saturday night before diminishing on Sunday. NBM/LREF/GEFS/ECS probabilities for measurable precipitation (>.01) however are largely much higher 50-90% north to south and so we may continue to see our PoP forecast increase over the next day or two. Preliminarily it looks like minor impacts from this system for our region with not much in the way of wind, and any accumulations being light (few inches possible south). But, given the northward shift still being suggested by some guidance it certaintly bears monitoring for any changes. Next week the pattern looks to remain unsettled with the area largely residing on the cold side of northwest to southeast low-mid level baroclinic zone, with cyclonic flow aloft potentially shuttling in periodic disturbances. Far too early to be resolved, but perhaps more ebbs and flows on temperatures with some moderation at times (although likely no better than near normal) and some bitter cold at times too along with periodic precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 455 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR and patchy MVFR ceilings are expected during the period. A few flurries are also possible at times, with a very low probability (<20%) for a brief snow shower and visibility reduction along a passing Arctic front this afternoon through early evening. Winds this morning will be generally from the W/SW and could occasionally gust 15-18 kt. Winds will turn gusty from the W/NW 18z-23z with gusts of 25-35+ kt, and remain gusty 18-25+ kt through the rest of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089. Extreme Cold Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for IAZ098- 099. IL...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024. Extreme Cold Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for ILZ025- 026-034-035. MO...Extreme Cold Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for MOZ009-010. Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for MOZ009- 010.