textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and unseasonably mild conditions will be seen across the area on Tuesday. Temperatures will be turning colder the second half of the week with sharply colder temperatues for the weekend.

- Very windy conditions will be seen across the area on Wednesday. There is a 30 to 35 percent probability that winds may gust up to 40 mph.

- A clipper system will move through the Midwest late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. There is still considerably uncertainty regarding the track. However, right now there is a 20 to 40 percent probability of seeing an inch of snow accumulation.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 207 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Quiet and unseasonably mild conditions will be seen late this afternoon and tonight as southerly flow continues across the area.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with temperatures climbing well into the 40s along with windy conditions. Areas south of I-80 have a good chance of seeing temperatures in the 50s.

The frontal passage that occurs on Tuesday has extremely weak forcing associated with it and limited moisture. Outside of some sprinkles and possibly a couple of isolated rain showers, 90 percent of the area looks to remain dry. Attention then turns to the second half of the week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 207 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Tuesday night through Wednesday night Assessment...high (60-80%) confidence of very windy conditions and turning colder Wednesday. Low (<20%) confidence on precipitation chances.

The second and stronger front sweeps through the area late Tuesday night. While the front is stronger than the daytime Tuesday front, moisture is still quite limited. Thus while some isolated rain and eventually snow showers may be seen Tuesday night into Wednesday, the more probable scenario is sprinkles/flurries.

The more important message for Wednesday will be the wind. Winds will slowly increase late Tuesday night and hit their peak during the day Wednesday. NBM probabilities put a 30 to 35 percent chance of seeing wind gusts up to 40 mph during the day Wednesday. At this time the probability of wind headlines for Wednesday is 10 percent at best.

Some flurries may linger into Wednesday evening as the cold advection continues across the area. Windy conditions will continue during the evening hours with winds diminishing late. Attention then turns to the clipper system.

Thursday through Saturday Assessment...high (70-90%) confidence on a clipper system. Low (<25%) confidence on track and overall impacts.

As was mentioned yesterday, considerable uncertainty exists in the track and impacts of this clipper system until the energy that develops the storm comes onshore Tuesday night and is sampled by the more dense land networks.

Nearly all ensemble members of the EPS/GEPS have the track of the low from Minnesota into Wisconsin. There are only 3-4 ensemble members that take the track across the area. All GEFS members have a Minnesota to Wisconsin track. The deterministic runs favor a northern track as well with the exception of the CMC which favors its 3 southern tracks across the area.

Where the models do agree is that a majority of any snow will come with the lead warm advection wing of the system. The ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS have moistened slightly but still have liquid QPF of 0.10 inches or less.

NBM probabilities for a dusting of accumulation are high (>70%) so minimally a dusting will be seen. The probabilities for an inch or more of snow are low to medium (20-40%). Thus the overall impacts from this event look to be minor.

Light snow may begin as early as mid to late Tuesday afternoon west of the Mississippi. Right now the model consensus has a 20-30 percent chance of this occurring.

The more likely time frame for snow will be Thursday night into Friday during the passage of the warm advection precipitation. Here the model consensus has chances ranging from 20-30 percent across the southern third of the area to 40 to 60 percent for areas north of I-80.

Friday night into Saturday will be interesting. There will be cold advection occurring with cyclonic flow aloft and the presence of a nearby cold core upper low. Thus snow showers and flurries are expected to occur that would produce localized dusting of accumulation. Right now the model consensus has a 20-30 percent chance.

Saturday night through Monday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of much colder conditions. Low (<20%) confidence on precipitation chances.

The cold core upper low will slowly exit the area Saturday night through Sunday night. While the model consensus has dry conditions, I cannot fully rule out the possibility of seeing flurries or isolated snow showers. Monday generally looks to be dry.

Given the cyclonic flow aloft there is a medium to high (60-80%) probability that there will be a considerable amount of clouds across the area Saturday night through Sunday. The model consensus is not yet showing this but that will probably change as the week progresses.

Interestingly, the 12z ECMWF deterministic run has a new clipper system for Sunday that was not there on previous runs. The GFS/CMC/ICON models show only high pressure for the area. The UKMET model does have a clipper system but has it passing well south of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Southerly flow will continue through 15z/13 as the next clipper system approaches from the Plains. A strong LLJ will develop after 06z/13 which has a 50 percent probability of developing LLWS around 1 kft AGL across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois 10z/13 to 15z/13.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.