textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for isolated severe storms Tuesday night, with the main hazards heavy downpours and large hail.

- A strong cold front to sweep through Friday will bring much cooler temps for the weekend and the risk for frost, especially Friday night.

- Above normal temps return Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Unseasonably warm conditions with temperatures approaching records for the day was seen early this afternoon. As of 1pm, temperatures were in the 80s area-wide, with dewpoints in the low 60s. It feels more like mid-July outside than mid-October and the current calendar day lows were already above the normal highs for the day. Breezy south winds were developing, as our 18z DVN sounding showed 20kts at the top of the mixed layer around 930mb.

Rest of Today, temperatures to climb close to records for Oct 12th and wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 deg reading somewhere in the CWA before the day is over! Dewpoints in the lower 60s have kept afternoon min RH values above 40% and GFDIAg values and subsequent fire danger low.

Tonight, winds to decrease around sunset as boundary layer decouples. A cold front will slide east across IA bringing a wind shift and an increase in high clouds. Overnight lows will be dependent on location of the front, with readings in the upper 50s near Waterloo, to the lower 70s near Peoria.

Tuesday, another upper level wave to lift northeast east of the Colorado Rockies inducing cyclogenesis of a surface low. Ahead of this feature, a strengthening 850mb theta-e gradient with an integrated WV transport connection to Hurricane Simon southwest of Mexico will be found. PWs to rise through the day into the 1.5 to 1.7" range in our far south (near 99th percentile for this time of year). In addition, a sharp Td gradient is expected during the afternoon as much as 20 degrees across the CWA from north to south. If you want more summer humidity, head south of I-80 and if you want Fall humidity, go north of I-80. Taking a look at the severe parameter space, convective initiation is anticipated over the central Plains overs KS and towards Kansas City between 21-22z, with activity tracking east northeast. While some 12z CAM solutions have some storms developing over southwest IA/northwest MO early afternoon, the bulk of the storms to occur after 00z Wed clipping our far southeast IA, northeast MO, and west central IL counties late evening/overnight. With instability quickly decreasing after sunset, I feel that the severe risk will be quite limited with heavy downpours and an isolated hailer the main threats south of Hwy 34. In any case, SPC has a Day 2 Marginal risk for severe across the entire CWA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the overnight hours and through the AM commute, with QPF totals less than a half inch for most locations.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Wednesday through Saturday

We should see a break in the rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. However, continued high moisture across the area with another weak wave means there will be another bout of showers and storms during the day Thursday with a 70-90% chance areawide. No severe weather is anticipated. Then as the upper- level trough moves east, the surface low north of the Great Lakes will bring a strong cold front through the area late Thursday evening. This will bring some below-normal temperatures as well as gusty winds. These increased winds, despite the cooler temps, will bring an enhanced risk for agricultural fires.

There is quite the spread in LREF 850mb temperatures associated with the cold front, with the 75th-25th percentile range being 5C to -2C. This means there is some uncertainty about the extent of the frost potential Friday night into Saturday morning. Areas north of Highway 30 have the highest potential of seeing temperatures get below 36F Friday evening, especially with clear skies and a calm wind forecast.

Saturday night through Sunday

Winds will shift back to the southwest as high pressure drifts east, bringing slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a shortwave moving through Monday morning in the southwest flow aloft, which could bring chances for rain, but that potential will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Well defined cold front in satellite and radar imagery across western Iowa from near KFOD to KAIO will continue to move eastward, and based on current speed should progress through the terminals roughly in the 07z to 13z timeframe. Although some slowing is anticipated as a surface low along the front pulls away and the post-frontal pressure rises weaken in time. Ahead of the front, winds will likely remain occasionally gusty at 10-20 kt from the S/SW, but LLWS was maintained for a while this evening into the overnight before the front nears, as winds aloft increase to 40-45+ kt in the 1-2kft agl layer from the SW. In the wake of the frontal passage winds will turn from the W/NW at around 10 kt and may gust at times near 20 kt Tuesday morning before winds diminish in the afternoon. I have kept sky cover VFR with few-sct MVFR bases post-frontal on Tuesday and some mid level clouds. HRRR guidance has been trending toward more in the way of lower clouds and MVFR ceilings tomorrow morning, particularly at KCID and KDBQ. It is more of an outlier though, but given the time of year this potential for a period of MVFR ceilings will need monitoring. A few spotty showers can't be ruled out in the 09z-16z timeframe mainly near KBRL and possibly KMLI with elevated theta-e advection attendant to a weak passing disturbance. There is quite a bit of uncertainty however, with much of the CAM guidance not showing this potential. Given the uncertainty I have opted to leave out mention, but this will need to be monitored with later shifts. The signal for precipitation begins to increase by later Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday evening/night, but with it being late in the TAF period and mainly just beyond, I have kept out any mention for now.

CLIMATE

Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Record Highs for October 12th...

Burlington, IA......86 in 2024 and previous years Cedar Rapids, IA....88 in 1995 Dubuque, IA.........86 in 1886 Moline, IL..........87 in 1947

Record Warm Lows for October 13th...

Dubuque, IA.........65 in 1920 Moline, IL..........68 in 1975

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.