textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers will be seen through mid-evening with flurries possible through sunrise Sunday. The snow showers late this afternoon and evening have about a 30 percent chance of being snow squalls.

- The weather pattern will remain fairly active next week as northwest flow aloft develops. A warming trend will be seen the first half of next week followed by a cooling trend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

The first of two upper air disturbances will rotate through the area this afternoon and early evening. The brief clearing we had ahead of this disturbance means that snow showers will be the primary mode of precipitation this afternoon/evening.

The very short term models (e.g. HRRR) do show some brief visibility reductions of 1 mile or less with the snow showers which is being verified in some observation sites.

The question is whether or not there will be any snow squalls with the first disturbance. The brief clearing did increase the potential energy for this afternoon and the snow squall parameter values suggest the potential is there for squalls. Based on what has occurred, the probability of a snow squall occurring looks to be 25- 30 percent. The heat absorbed by the brief period of sun today should prevent any rapid freezing on roads.

Once the evening snow showers end, a second upper level disturbance will rotate through the area with the cold core upper low. This disturbance combined with the cyclonic flow aloft should be enough to allow flurries and isolated snow showers to persist past midnight but end prior to sunrise Sunday.

Sunday looks to start out with clouds and chilly temperatures. As the cold core upper low moves into the Ohio Valley the clouds will slowly break up during the day with a fair amount of sun being seen during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 209 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Sunday night through Monday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of temperatures trending above normal

All models show the cold core upper low moving into the eastern Great Lakes as southerly flow develops at the surface. This will allow temperatures to trend above normal the first half of next week before the pattern shifts to northwest flow aloft.

Tuesday through Wednesday Assessment...low to medium (15-35%) risk of precipitation

The change to northwest flow occurs around mid-week with the passage of a clipper system well north of the area. The clipper system will push two separate cold fronts through the area which will bring down temperatures. Tuesday will be the warmer of the two days prior to the passage of the first front.

Moisture is limited with the frontal passages on both days and the overall forcing is weak. Thus while 85-90 percent of the area will remain dry, there is a 10-15 percent chance of some isolated rain showers Tuesday and flurries/snow showers on Wednesday.

Wednesday night Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of temperatures much closer to normal

After the passage of the second cold front on Wednesday, a cold core upper low will move through the western Great Lakes. This upper low will bring overnight lows close to normal. While the current model consensus has dry conditions, I cannot fully rule out some isolated flurries occurring.

Thursday through Friday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of a clipper system. Low (<25%) confidence regarding track and overall impacts.

The global models show another clipper system moving through the Midwest Thursday into Friday. However, there are disagreements regarding track and timing.

The CMC is the furthest south and the fastest with the clipper system having it arrive Thursday afternoon followed by an elongated trof that persists into Friday.

The GFS/UKMET are similar and have the main low going across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. However, both are also hinting at a weaker secondary low that moves through the area.

The ECMWF/ICON models are similar albeit the ECMWF is a bit further south in bringing the low across the area suggesting some snow for the area.

Interestingly, the ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS are polar opposites. The ECMWF-AIFS suggests little of any snow for the area while the AIGFS brings accumulating snow for much of the area.

The ensemble members of the respective models diverge considerably. Most have their low centers passing well north of the area. Only the EPS has a smattering of members with a low moving through the area.

As a result of all these differences, the model consensus only has 20-35 percent chances for snow Thursday into Friday. Once the energy that will develop this clipper comes onshore in the Pacific northwest, the model solutions should begin converging on a track and timing which will result in snow chances increasing.

Friday night and Saturday Assessment...high (70-90%) confidence of colder than normal

Right now the model consensus has lingering light snow east of the Mississippi Friday evening followed by dry conditions late Friday night into Saturday. Given the uncertainty in track/timing of the Thursday/Friday clipper these pops look reasonable right now. The bigger message is the trend toward colder than normal temperatures for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Upper level disturbance will rotate through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this afternoon/evening. SHSN are expected that have a 30 percent probability of being squalls with VSBYS 1SM or less with gusts to 30 knots. After 02z/11 low level mechanical turbulence will be seen with wind gusts up to 30 knots with isolated snow showers or flurries and likely MVFR conditions. After 12z/11 conditions will improve to VFR with slowly decreasing winds.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.