textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/isolated storms possible this afternoon/early evening. There is also a low risk for funnel clouds primarily along and east of the Mississippi River.

- Drying out and more seasonable conditions expected Monday and Tuesday to start the work week.

- Rain chances return mid-week along with increasing humidity levels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

After an active and wet start to the month, much quieter conditions were seen early Sunday albeit still quite humid outside. Water vapor imagery shows three weak shortwaves across the Midwest, with the strongest over northwest IA. This wave combined with strong upper level divergence along a 700-850mb moisture gradient is supporting scattered showers/storms. Recent radar trends have this activity already weakening over northwest IA. Closer to home, high clouds were overspreading the area keeping any fog formation at bay for the moment. An isolated rogue shower has also developed near Cedar Rapids.

A few isolated showers can't be ruled out this morning. Otherwise, a much welcomed period of dry weather begins for most today, with mostly cloudy skies. A shortwave over MO will slowly lift northeast resulting in increasing clouds and isolated to scattered rain chances this afternoon/early evening. Taking a deeper dive into precip chances, weak deep layer shear atop building low level instability and lapse rates this afternoon may bring a low risk for funnel clouds. A similar environment was in place over northern IA yesterday where a few funnel cloud reports were received. The 05z RAP NST parameter maximizes around 3 right over eastern IA near the MS RVR extending eastward into north central IL. If any were to occur, they would be short-lived but something we will monitor today. Isolated showers to quickly decrease around sunset, with overnight lows dropping into the lower to middle 60s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Monday-Tuesday...broad ridging aloft over the central CONUS to bring drier and more seasonable conditions to start the work week. High pressure to push a lake breeze into at least northwest IL providing more comfortable dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s on Monday. Afternoon highs to top out in the lower 80s Monday and Tuesday with overnight lows in the lower 60s.

Tuesday Night-Friday...latest model ensembles show 594 dam upper high retrograding westward over AZ and southern CA resulting in a flattening ridge. Several shortwaves to track along the edge of the ridge into the upper Midwest supporting scattered showers/storm potential that could eventually reach the northern CWA. Temperatures to remain seasonable, with humidity levels on the increase once again. A cool front Wednesday night to bring our next best chances (40-70%) of widespread precip that will be further fine tuned in later forecasts.

Friday Night-Sunday...the 00z GEFS/GEPS/ENS all show the western ridge building/strengthening over the Rockies leading to northwest flow aloft. 850mb temps also are cooler this weekend that could result in a rather pleasant weekend with seasonable temps and comfortable humidity.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Diurnal cumulus will develop this afternoon due to the high moisture levels. Isolated SHRA/TSRA cannot be ruled out but the probability of a TAF site being impacted is around 10 percent. Boundary layer moisture remains high after 00z/06 so there is a 40-60% probability of seeing MVFR conditions develop prior to sunrise Monday. While not included in this set of TAFs, localized IFR/LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Widespread 48-hr rainfall amounts between 3-5 inches were common across central IA northeast towards Waterloo. Some higher amounts in excess of 9 inches were reported particularly in the headwaters of the Skunk River. These amounts fell in a short amount of time resulting in significant runoff in most of the Iowa tributary rivers in eastern IA. Thankfully, most of the points in eastern IA were well below flood stage prior to this rain and within bank rises are forecast. The exception will be the Iowa River at Marengo and the Wapsi River near De Witt. Flood Warnings are in effect with a Major flood forecast for De Witt by Wednesday afternoon. See the latest flood statements for details. No appreciable rainfall is expected through the upcoming week, so routed flow will be forecast.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.