textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Slight (Level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms is in effect for much of the area this afternoon and evening (2-8 PM). Large hail and damaging winds are the primary threats. Flash flooding is also possible in areas that have received repeated rounds of heavy rain over the last several days..

- Seasonally cooler air will be in place much of the week ahead with highs in the 70s to low 80s, and lows in 50s to low 60s.

- The next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms will center on Wednesday as energy arrives in northwest flow aloft.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A dry airmass remains in place this morning as an upper level disturbance and surface low ejects into the central Plains. Ahead of this disturbance, southerly flow is expected to advect moisture into the region, though some questions remain on how much moisture will make it into the area. One limitation is the progression of an MCS across the central Plains that is expected to progress through Missouri, as this may interrupt the moisture feed as it passes to our south. If moisture advection is not interrupted, PWATs of 1.5- 1.75 inches are possible across the area.

As moisture returns, there are increasing chances for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. SPC has expanded the Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe thunderstorms northwards along a line from Marengo IA towards Elizabeth IL, with a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk to the north. This expansion is primarily motivated by the risk for large hail, as midlevel lapse rates are quite high (7.5-8 degC/km). Additionally, environmental shear of 40-50 kts will support organized storms. While CAMs continue to vary on the timing of convection, the primary window for storms looks to be from 2-8 PM, with storms moving in from the west and northwest along a frontal boundary. Initial storm coverage will be scattered before upscale growth into a line of storms.

Behind the initial line of storms, additional showers and storms are likely through late evening as the front slowly progresses through the area. A Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of flash flooding is in effect for the entire area, with the greatest risk being in those areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain, especially where heavy rain has occurred over the last several days.

Following frontal passage, Sunday looks to be quite pleasant, with highs in the low 70s and light winds as a drier airmass takes hold over the region.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 217 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Sunday night through Monday are confidently dry as surface high pressure moves well south of the region. This will occur as a broad, deep upper trof shifts a bit farther southwest into the upper Great Lakes. Eventually this upper trof will bring several short waves through our region, in northwest flow aloft.

While our forecast will remain a cooler than normal, this energy aloft is expected to bring several bouts of showers and storms through the region. High amounts of CAPE are certainly not expected, but northwest flow in June can often bring hail threats in storms, due to the cooler air aloft. This will need to be watched as a threat in the extended, but in general, this week offers less heavy rain potential with moisture transport distanced rather far away from the region, and each passing wave will shunt this southeast before it tries to return ahead of the next wave. It does look active, but this moisture transport would certainly favor a more southern track for heavy rains, in Missouri and points south.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions with increasing southwest winds will be found this morning into the early afternoon, with only some mid and high clouds arriving from the west. This afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop in a scattered line along a cold front, which will move east across our area this evening. This front will bring a line of scattered to broken storms through all sites, with highest confidence at BRL where storm coverage is most likely this evening. Some showers may linger beyond the cold frontal passage into late evening tonight along with some threat for MVFR cigs around 2000-2500 ft.

Within any storm this afternoon and evening,LIFR heavy rain, hail, and gusty west/northwest winds can be expected.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.