textproduct: Quad Cities

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Snow has rapidly diminished over the past couple of hours, with still some flurries and potential for narrow transitory bouts of light snow north of Hwy 30 and near/east of the Mississippi River through 5-6 AM. We've received a few reports of 1.6 inches to just over 3 inches from around Dubuque to Freeport.

While we'll enter a period of quiet weather this morning, we're expecting more snow showers to return by mid afternoon into this evening attendant to an intensifying/sharpening shortwave trough currently over ND, as it sweeps through the region. This will be accompanied by a strong Arctic front. A transitory bout of deep saturation and robust low level Fgen forcing should foster snow showers with bursts of snow and accums up to an inch, particularly near/ north of I-80 where more prevalent coverage is currently anticipated. Coincident with and following the snow showers is likely to be a period of strong winds. Latest runs of the HRRR and RAP remain most aggressive in depicting 40-45+ kt winds atop the mixed layer residing above 900 hPa, while the 4km NAM, ARW and NMM are not as deeply mixed (925 hPa) and strong with winds only around 30-35 kt. RAP is verifying pretty well at 09z with the strong winds into parts of MT and western ND (gusts already 32-38+ kt). Given this and fairly uniform westerly flow along with warmer temps for deeper mixing, strong CAA with steepening low level lapse rates post frontal I feel RAP and HRRR may be more realistic. This leads to some concerns for snow squalls, but have noted a weakening trend on near surface instability and a shift of low level Fgen tied more closely to the boundary of which both offer lower confidence at this time. The bigger concern is looking at the potential for significant blowing and drifting of the fresh powdery snow (1+ inch) that fell overnight in areas north of Hwy 30 and any additional snow this afternoon into evening up to an inch. The Baggaley Blowing Snow model for snow age of 12-24 hours and a constant temperature in the upper 20s with wind speeds of 30 to 35 kt lists probabilities at 30-50% for the crust breaking, and that goes up to 50-70% for winds of 35-40 kt. Current forecast highs are in the mid/upper 20s for much of the area north of Hwy 30. As a result, we've opted for a Winter Weather Advisory near/ north of Hwy 30 to cover the strong crosswinds and potential for significant visibility reduction at times in blowing snow along with some drifting snow. To the south of the Winter Weather Advisory, a Wind Advisory was issued where little snow cover is observed and minimal accums only possible lending to strong winds being the primary hazard. Temperatures will surge above freezing and likely reach near 40 across parts of the far south ahead of the front, but may have to watch for some refreeze of any moisture this evening as temps crash behind the passing Arctic front.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 253 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The next Arctic front ushering in a multi-day deep freeze will arrive by Thursday afternoon accompanied by another chance for snow showers, albeit only 20% right now due to limited moisture and weaker forcing currently being progged.

The focus then for Thursday night through the weekend will be largely with a frigid airmass settling over the area, likely leading to the coldest temperatures/wind chills we've experienced yet this season. 850 hPa temperatures dip to 23 to 28 degrees C below zero over much of the area by 12z/6 AM Friday per the GEFS/ECWMF ensembles. Values from these ensembles around -24 to -25 degrees C over the Quad Cities would reach the daily minimum for DVN on January 23 per the SPC sounding climatology, so we're talking bitterly cold conditions. The latest LREF ensemble exceedance probabilities of wind chills -20 degrees F (threshold for Cold Weather Advisory over most of our CWA) is around 60-90%, along with chances of -30 degrees F (threshold for Extreme Cold Warning over most of our CWA) is around 35-95%, particularly Thursday night and Friday morning. Exceedance values this high gives more than enough confidence for us to issue an Extreme Cold Watch for the entire area. We have issued the watch from Thursday night through Saturday morning, as the potential exists for conditions to be colder than currently forecast for Friday night given the anomalously strong high pressure although exceedance probabilities from the LREF do reduce a good bit so it's not certain.

As far as precipitation chances are concerned, we're seeing some northward trend in some of the deterministic and ensembles to the strong southern states winter storm slated for Friday through the weekend. LREF and NBM have jumped to 20-40% probabilities for an inch or more of snow for areas roughly south of a Rockford to Iowa City line, as some indications of more phasing of the northern and southern streams could bring the system and it's expansive precip shield further north. Something to keep an eye on in the coming days!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A fast moving storm system will move across the area this afternoon into this evening. This will lead to increasing west winds across the area with gusts initially up to 25 knots. As the front moves through, winds will turn to the west northwest and increase to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 to 45 knots but gusts as high as 50 knots at KCID, and KDBQ 21 to 6 UTC. This will lead to BLSN at KCID and KDBQ along with snow showers possible at all TAF sites with the highest confidence of snow showers at KCID and KDBQ. LIFR conditions are possible at KCID with the potential for visibility below 1/2sm in the most intense snow showers with visibility below 3/4sm at KDBQ. There is lower confidence at KMLI. Snow showers are forecast to exit the area after 00 UTC. Outside of snow showers MVFR to IFR visibility are possible with BLSN at KCID and KDBQ until the winds diminish. The strongest winds quickly diminish after 6 UTC Thursday but winds will remain near 10 knots through the end of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ040-041- 051>053. Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for IAZ042-054. High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ063>065- 067-076>078. Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for IAZ066-068. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ087>089-098- 099. IL...Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for ILZ001-002-007. Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to midnight CST tonight for ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Extreme Cold Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning for MOZ009-010. Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MOZ009-010.