textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and isolated storms will move through the area this afternoon, with the potential for isolated strong- severe storms east of the Mississippi River.

- Gusty winds will be seen through the day today, with a few gusts upwards to 45 mph possible this afternoon.

- Strong warm advection will result in above normal temperatures this weekend and beyond, with increasing chances for storms. The SPC currently outlooked our area in a 15% chance for severe weather, or level 2/5 risk, Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Modest warm advection was seen today ahead of an approaching cold front, resulting in mild and windy conditions this afternoon. Temperatures are currently in the low-mid 70s for many, with some approaching the low 80s. Winds are largely out of the south/southwest ahead of the cold front, with deep mixing resulting in some higher gusts. Overall, we will see gusts between 30-40 mph, but a few localized gusts around 45mph cannot be ruled out. Although, winds through the morning have been lower than forecast, which may continue into late afternoon/evening.

As mentioned above, a surface low north of the area will drag a cold front through the region today, bringing scattered showers/storms to the area this afternoon into the evening. There remains some uncertainty on how much of the area will see rain today, owing to plenty of dry air in the llvls. This dry layer is quite apparent in model soundings and our 18z RAOB, indicating more of a light rain or even drizzle for some. Best chances for rain will be along/north of Interstate 80, as dry air to the south should decrease coverage in storms as they progress through. There remains a low-end severe threat for these storms, but largely for areas east of the Mississippi River. Confidence remains low on the potential, but an isolated severe gust resulting from strong evaporative cooling cannot be ruled out. SPC has those areas under a Marginal Risk, level 1/5, for severe weather.

Post-Frontal airmass will kick in tonight, with surface high pressure moving through the area on Wednesday. We are not expecting temperatures to drop too much tonight, with much of the area remaining in the 50s. With that, dry air and clear skies will work into the area and remain overhead through much of Wednesday. Some passing clouds may be seen in the afternoon, but more sun than clouds will be seen. Temperatures will be cooler than seen on Tuesday, but still mild with much of the area in the low-mid 70s. Cooler temps will be seen in northwest Illinois, owing to some passing clouds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 210 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper ridging will pass through the region Thursday into Friday, with a weak shortwave pushing this out of the area Friday and flow becoming more zonal midday Friday through Saturday. Through this timeframe, we will see llvl winds become southerly, with flow moving in from the Gulf. This will result in increasing temperatures and moisture throughout the area, with the more substantial warmup being seen Friday and beyond. With the shortwave passing through Thursday night into Friday, there will be a chance for showers/storms. Best chances will be overnight (40-70% chance) into early Friday AM, with the wave moving out by midday. Then, we will be left with mostly clear skies Friday afternoon, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Saturday into Sunday, the pattern becomes more active throughout the region. A trof will dig in from the Pacific Northwest, deepening over the Rockies. This will induce strong southwesterly flow over the region Saturday through the start of the next work week. Temperatures above seasonal norms can be expected, with increasing moisture throughout. There remains some uncertainty on how high the temperatures will get through this timeframe, owing to cloud cover due to increased moisture, along with the NBM running hot. In either case, with increasing temperatures and moisture, instability will build throughout. Thus, all that is needed is some forcing for showers and storms to develop. Forcing will arrive to the area as early as Saturday evening/night, as a bout of vorticity pushes north through the area with a passing warm front. This will set the stage for storms Saturday night, some of which may be strong to severe. A brief look at available guidance would indicate the primary threat being elevated thunderstorms posing a hail threat into Sunday morning. Otherwise, lighting and brief heavy rain will also be a hazard that night, especially for anyone outside camping. More chances for showers/storms will remain through the day on Sunday, especially the afternoon and evening.

Sunday and beyond, the pattern remains the same, with more bouts of vorticity set to pass through the area. Thus, chances for precipitation will remain. SPC has highlighted much of our area in a Day 6 15% chance for severe weather, which equates to a Slight Risk for severe weather. This will be something to monitor over the coming days, especially as more hi-res guidance comes in. Overall, this just indicates that some storms that develop Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening, will have the chance to be strong/severe. There remains some uncertainty on where the aforementioned warm front will stall out. This will be important to watch, as wherever this sets up can be a focal point for heavier precipitation. In all, heavy precipitation will still be on the table due to rounds of showers/storms with each wave passing through. One thing to note is that this isn't looking like a complete washout at this time, with some dry time forecast between rounds of storms. Current locations that may see the best chances for rounds of precipitation will be along/north of Interstate 80. WPC has a broad area of 1.00-2.00" of rain forecast over the area, where much of that will fall Saturday night through Monday. Keep in mind that much can still change with this forecast. Otherwise, this will be a warm stretch of weather with widespread 80s possible. There remains much uncertainty on how high temperatures will get, as NBM continues to come in much warmer than the remainder of guidance (between the 90-99th percentile of guidance). The bulk of guidance generally keeps us around 80 during this timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Impacts: - Strong northwest winds gusting 35-40 kts this evening - Areas of blowing dust will likely accompany the northwest winds with localized MVFR visibility possible.

Discussion:

Deep mixing in the wake of a passing cold front will lead to northwest winds gusting 35-40 kt this evening. Geocolor satellite imagery shows a long fetch of blowing dust accompanying these winds through northern Iowa. Blowing dust will impact KDBQ and KCID terminals this evening, and is possible at KMLI and KBRL though confidence is lower being toward sunset and winds possibly diminishing some. Visibility in the blowing dust will be generally 6-8SM, but some localized MVFR visibility 4-5SM and VFR ceilings are possible with the thicker concentration of blowing dust. The blowing dust should diminish later this evening as the winds begin to slowly subside, but W/NW winds will remain gusty to 25 kt throughout. Some diurnally driven cumulus is possible on Wednesday with VFR bases 3500-5000 ft agl.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.