textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures remain forecast through the period with high temperatures peaking in the lower to mid 90s Tuesday through the end of the week. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of heat indices over 100 Tuesday through Thursday.

- Forecast remains dry through Thursday with low chances of rain Friday and Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

High pressure will continue to sit across the area through Tuesday with a gradual moderation in temperatures each day. Think that the NBM is warming temperatures too quickly so decided to slow the warming trend slightly through Tuesday. Looking at 925 mb temperatures in the 22 to 24*C range during this period and mixing that adiabatically yields surface temperatures of 87 to 91 degrees across the area. Adjusted temperatures from that upward by 1 to 2 degrees for Tuesday. Peak heat indices on Monday will be in the mid 90s with mid to upper 90s possible on Tuesday with the dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

There is little change in the forecast from yesterday and decided to use the previous long term discussion from Sunday afternoon which is below with some minor edits.

The upper pattern will remain in place, with increasing high pressure strength through Wednesday. However, beyond Wednesday, there is some growing support for a shift to the west of the upper high, leading to a potential back door cold front as early as Wednesday night, but more likely Thursday. Given that potential, some very very low pops around 15-20% are forecast in those outer periods.

While broad support exists for highs in the lower 90s, with nearly 95% of NBM going over 90 through Wednesday, the 50th percentile remains in the 92-96F range in the period, and given our light flow beneath the high, currently under-performing temperatures, I'm inclined to cap highs at 94/95 through mid week, as the NBM has hot spots in the 96+ most days this week. Dew point values will increase through evapotranspiration, which is nearing seasonal peaks. However, that is the primary moisture source for this high pressure, and we will lack other typical moisture sources near the center of high pressure. The moisture levels will be an important feature in the week ahead, as it is certainly the deciding factor in heat headlines. For now, widespread mid 60s to low 70 dew points remain forecast, resulting in afternoon heat index of 93 to 100 for many days this week, but most confidently on Tuesday and Wednesday. LREF probabilities of heat indices exceeding 100 remain in the 10 to 20 percent range during this period.

Beyond Wednesday, the greater spread in model data is showing up with highs as cool as the mid 80s in the lower 25% of NBM guidance late in the week into the upcoming weekend, but the NBM 50% remaining in the lower to mid 90s. No matter what, we're still very much in a warm pattern through the week ahead, and heat headlines remain a possibility.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Broad high pressure continues to bring quiet weather and VFR conditions to eastern Iowa TAF sites. High pressure is forecast to remain in place through the period with dry air in place resulting in clear skies through the period. With high pressure overhead wind directions will vary across the area Forecast wind directions after 15 UTC at KCID and KDBQ will be from the west around 5 knots with northwest winds at KMLI and easterly winds at KBRL. Winds will once again become light and variable after 00 UTC Tuesday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.