textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for a couple rounds of showers and t-storms today, with any afternoon/early evening round possibly having an early season severe threat, mainly in Illinois with large hail being the main threat.

- Winter weather advisory in effect for tonight into Friday morning with a narrow band of 3 to 6 inches of snow. Exact location of this band could shift so be prepared for changes to the forecast

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SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Multi-faceted short-term period with a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon and then advisory level, maybe narrow warning, level snow across our NW CWA tonight into Friday morning.

Compared to this time last night, the large scale models have come into better agreement in the overall flow for the next wave. A negatively tilted/closed low will swing through the area today with an attendant surface low moving just to the south and east of the QCA. Guidance does tuck some low level moisture back towards the low this afternoon towards the Quad Cities. That said, no guidance has the magic 55 degree Tds move into our area. Model soundings depict more of an elevated storm threat. While there is sufficient shear for updraft organization and rotation, the instability suggests any storms would be rooted above the BL. As such, cannot rule out a small hail threat from these storms. As the warm sector pulls east of the area, the trowal of this system starts to form to our north and west. Scattered showers with some rumbles of thunder are possible early this evening, especially north of I-80. Towards 00z, much colder air starts to more into the area, transitioning the precipitation to snow.

Guidance has shifted and is good agreement for a band of moderate to heavy snow at times from approximately Marshalltown to Boscobel, WI. Went with a consall for QPF, which brings more snow to the area than the NBM and WPC. This makes sense as guidance has really started to ramp up QPF. To ensure that possibility, a quick glance of the omegas in the DGZ, shows that we could see a decent period of moderate to heavy snow in a narrow band. In fact, seeing over 6 inches of snow in this band is not out of the question and may require a tactical last minute upgrade to a warning. The last runs of the largescale and RAP model all have a band of 6+ in the advisory area. Latest probabilistic data has low probabilities for this occurring, however with guidance showing it, the probability data is catching up to this shift in guidance. HREF probs of 1 inch an hr rate is 30-40%, so will want to see what the 12z run shows and think the rates could overcome warm roads. That said, current road temps in advisory area range from 33 to 38, and with cloud cover today and some wind, would not be surprised to accumulation on roadways. Speaking of wind, we could see gusts reaching 30 mph in the snow. So we will see some blowing and possibly drifting of snow. This could make for slick commute Friday morning in the advisory area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable conditions are expected this weekend through Monday with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the 20s/teens. After this, we see a warm up in temperatures again into the 40s and 50s. Precipitation returns to the period late.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 6 to 8 hours before CIGs start to lower a low pressure system moves into the area. Rain this afternoon will eventually give way to accumulating snow at CID and DBQ overnight. Minimums may be possible at DBQ and CID especially between 04z and 09z at those sites due to +SN.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for IAZ040>042-051>053. IL...None. MO...None.