textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity concerns increase Sunday into Monday with heat indices expected to reach near or above 100 degrees.

- Thunderstorm chances return to the area Sunday night into Monday. Some storms could be strong to severe.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

High remains in place at the surface with south to southeasterly flow. Mid level moisture to move toward the area along with a weak shortwave dropping through the region in northwest flow pattern aloft late tonight into Friday. Still looking at some shower chances into the south and west of the area with this wave very late tonight and Friday morning. Little instability, therefore the threat for thunder is limited.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The northwest flow pattern remains in place aloft into the weekend and next week, with a larger upper level ridge building across the Plains and intermountain west this weekend. This allows heat to build beneath the ridge with the thermal ridge building eastward toward Sunday into Monday. Return flow off the gulf into the region sends dewpoints back into the 70s along with ensembles showing a trend of higher than average moisture and temperatures across the area for this time period, matching the trend the past few days of heat and humidity concerns increasing for the Sunday and Monday time period. Latest heat index values near and above 100 for Sunday and Monday.

Some dampening of the ridge across the area later Sunday into next week, with ripples in the ridge, and increasing chance for thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday night with waves topping and traveling southeastward through the upper ridge. This pattern sets up a ring of fire situation with ensembles trying to bring a storm complex through the area late Sunday night and Monday morning. The area is outlooked for severe possibilities in Day 4 and 5 for this possibility. The upper ridge then amplifies a bit more across the west into the latter portion of the week, with more troughing toward the MS Valley region into the Great Lakes suggesting additional precipitation chances or storm chances into the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are likely at all TAF sites through the next 24 hours as the stratocumulus deck over the area diminishes this evening. A SCT to BKN mid-to-upper-level cloud deck will move in from the west overnight and slowly lower throughout the day on Friday to around 5-7 kft. BRL could see some brief periods of -SHRA in the afternoon, prompting a PROB30 for lower ceilings and visibility close to MVFR conditions. Winds are forecasted to be light and variable overnight before becoming south- southeasterly around 5-10 knots Friday afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.