textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Wednesday will be another day of at or above normal temperatures for the area.

- A strong storm system will bring very windy conditions to the area Thursday. There is a 20-50% probability that wind gusts may exceed 40 mph Thursday afternoon and evening.

- Mainly dry conditions over the weekend with large swings in temperatures. A persistent trend of above normal temperatures will be seen next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The cold front will clear the area by sunrise. Post-frontal temperatures are still in the 30s so we will see a continued melt of the snow pack.

The question then becomes how warm will it get today. Satellite trends suggest a period of partly cloudy or clear skies but high level clouds in the Plains are racing east. Thus cloud cover should be on the increase late morning/afternoon which may hold down temperatures somewhat.

Wednesday evening will be dry across the area as the storm system approaches the area. Winds, however, will be on the increase and should be in the 15-25 mph range for much of the night with gusts approaching 35 mph at times.

Moisture racing north from the Gulf will interact with the cold front and allow rain to develop across the area. The better signal for rain is along/east of the Mississippi with rain being more scattered across eastern Iowa.

While it cannot be ruled out, the signal for thunder is very weak. Right now no thunder is being forecast but I cannot rule out a couple of rogue cells developing.

Attention then turns to Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 229 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Thursday/Thursday night Assessment...a certainty (>99%) of very windy conditions and temperatures turning sharply colder

The strong cold front looks to clear the area around mid-day Thursday as the upper level dry punch arrives. This will allow several hours of dry conditions before wrap around precipitation develops in the afternoon. Ahead of the front windy conditions will be seen with gusts up to 35 mph.

The passage of the front should be marked by a 5-10 degree temperature drop and a decrease in winds for a few hours.

Strong cold advection takes hold Thursday afternoon resulting in steadily falling temperatures. At the same time, winds will increase significantly. Winds atop of the mixed layer continue to be at least 40 knots which should easily mix down in the cold advection during the afternoon and evening. The probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph ranges from 20 to 50 percent with the higher probabilities west of the Mississippi.

Thus the potential is there for wind headlines Thursday afternoon and evening.

The wrap around moisture arrives mid-afternoon with temperatures aloft dropping below freezing followed by near surface temperatures. Thus the stage is set for snow showers from mid-afternoon Thursday that will continue into Thursday evening before ending. Internal signals from the models are suggesting the potential for some fairly robust snow showers in the 3-9 PM time frame Thursday afternoon/evening which may impact the evening commute.

Lingering snow showers will dissipate by midnight but windy conditions will continue through sunrise. While I cannot fully rule it out, isolated to scattered flurries are possible late Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on mainly dry conditions

Modified arctic air associated with a fast moving high will pour into the Midwest Friday behind the departing storm system. Temperatures look to be around or slightly below normal. Return flow developing Friday night signals a return to above normal temperatures for Saturday.

While the model consensus is dry for Friday night, the strength of the warm advection aloft raises the prospects of some sprinkles or very isolated showers. Right now the signal is weak but it is there is some of the model solutions.

On Saturday another Canadian front will sweep through the area in the late morning or afternoon. Atmospheric profiles are quite dry so the frontal passage looks to be marked with an increase in clouds.

Saturday night and Sunday will be dry as another fast moving high moves through the Midwest. Temperatures look to average below normal.

Sunday night return flow develops again across the area. Overnight low will likely occur during the evening with steady or slowly rising temperatures the remainder of the night. Atmospheric profiles are even drier than Friday night so dry conditions should be seen.

Monday through Tuesday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on dry conditions

Most models have a passing upper level disturbance and associated weak cold front moving through the area Monday afternoon/night. The model consensus has dry conditions so this front should only be marked with an increase in clouds.

As the storm track continues to shift further north, the intrusions of colder air will be come less intense which will allow temperatures to average above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 448 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

The cold front is now east of the Mississippi and winds will continue to decrease through 18z/17 and then become southerly. After 00z/18 the LLJ will strengthen and create LLWS around 1 kft AGL. After 06z/18 SHRA will rapidly develop across eastern Iowa ahead of the strong cold front with CIGS rapidly dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR by 12z/18.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1204 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

A broad and anomalous 500mb ridge (588 dm or 99th percentile per climatology for late December) will be across the central CONUS next week. The 8-14 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center shows 85-90% combined probabilities of near/above normal temperatures for the December 23rd-29th time frame. Normal highs for this period are in the lower 30s and normal lows are in the middle teens. Should see some substantial melting take place before and during Christmas across the forecast area.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.