textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Anomalous warmth to persist into the middle of next week. Record highs are possible Monday (2/16).

- Aside from a chance of rain well south of I-80 on Saturday, largely dry weather is in store through early next week fueling increasing precipitation deficits and worsening drought conditions. - Precipitation chances return to the forecast toward mid-week and persist through late next week as the pattern turns more active.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

It's another tranquil and frosty early morning across the area with a strong, shallow low level inversion, mainly clear skies, dry low level air and light to near calm winds providing an excellent radiational cooling setup. This is leading to a vast array of temperatures ranging from the low to mid 20s in favored drainage and valleys to the mid 30s.

High level cloud cover was beginning to increase in our southern service area, as a low pressure system emerges from the Southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains with the associated precipitation shield in the WAA and upper diffluence spreading as far north as near the I-70 corridor in eastern KS and western MO. This system will slide eastward into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next 24 hours keeping the bulk of the precipitation to our south. Much of the CAMs and hi-res ensembles have trended a bit southward on QPF with a rather sharp cutoff on measurable rain on the north side given the reservoir of dry air reinforced by developing easterly mid level flow. Latest HREF LPMM keeps measurable rain mostly near a Memphis, MO to Macomb, IL line on southward. Will continue with rain chances mainly south of Hwy 34 this afternoon through evening with theta-e advection on 315k surface. Increasing cloud cover today for much of the area may limit solar insolation fostering a bit of uncertainty with high temperatures. 925 hPa temperatures progged at 7c to 9c support at least low to mid 50s, with the potential for upper 50s to around 60 in areas that see sufficient/filtered solar insolation and more mixing dry adiabatically.

Overnight into Sunday morning as high pressure begins to build in this should lead to a decrease in cloud cover. This could lead to patchy fog with lowering dewpoint depressions and minimum temperatures breaching crossover temperatures. Lows look to be mainly in the 30s, but timing and extent of the decrease in clouds will be pivotal to lows (slower = higher side of 30s and possibly around 40 in some areas, faster = lower side of 30s with some upper 20s possible).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Models remain consistent on building in a mid level ridge over most of the central CONUS through early next week. At the surface, high pressure will build in Sunday before shifting east on Monday with strengthening southerly return flow/warm advection commencing. 2m temperature anomalies continue to support highs 15-25+ degrees above normal within anomalously warm air (NAEFS and GEFS 1-2 standard deviations on 850 hPa temperatures). This supports highs well into the 50s with some 60s on Sunday and then more widespread readings around 60 to near 65 on Monday that will challenge record highs for some (see climate section below).

Tuesday through Thursday represents a period of greater uncertainty both in regards to temperatures and precipitation chances, as the pattern is set to turn active. The first of two shortwaves during the period will likely form an upper low into the Upper Midwest while developing a surface cyclone that tracks from the Dakotas to WI late Tuesday into Wednesday. Strengthening fgen beneath the left exit region of a 140+ kt upper jet will foster precip chances (20-50%) Tuesday night into early Wednesday particularly north of I-80. However, with a ramping 50+ kt nocturnal LLJ Tuesday night will have to keep tabs on moisture return for some potential of convection, but right now general consensus is too dry or slow moistening of low levels to preclude higher PoPs and further southward expansion. This advection is atop a backdoor surface front that is shown to bisect the region on Tuesday, which could make for a bit of tricky temperature forecast and gradient - coolest north /albeit still unseasonably mild in the 50s/ to warmest south in the 60s. On Wednesday we could see another somewhat challenging temperature forecast initially warm sectored with the front returning north as a warm front before a cold front moves into north/west portions of the area. Once again we could see another temperature gradient of 10-15+ degrees from the 50s to well in the 60s. NBM quartiles depict the challenge and uncertainty on temperatures with spreads of 10-15+ degrees in 25th to 75th percentiles on highs Tuesday and Wednesday, greatest north of I-80 generally. Despite this uncertainty the message remains largely the same with still well above normal temperatures through mid-week.

A second shortwave is expected to arrive around Thursday bringing another chance of precipitation, as energy ejects out from a broad western CONUS trough and ripples along a tight mid level baroclinic zone. This could foster a stronger/deeper low sub 990 hPa per several ensemble members of GFS and ECMWF. Potentially another convective signal with this system although moisture and instability profiles are not very impressive, but this could change and will need monitoring in the days ahead given the potential negative tilt wave and strength of the baroclinic zone fostering possibly a stronger system, which would support increased moisture and instability potential. As this system passes late week it will drag down cooler air and could result in a chance of snow with any residual moisture in the wrap-around before temperatures trend back toward more seasonable levels heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Southward trend with the next system suggests -RA/sprinkles may only get as far north as the IA/MO border. Overall winds to remain under 8 knots through 00z/16. The more moist boundary layer and light winds supports fog potential developing after 06z/15 and continuing through 15z/15. The area favored looks to be south of Interstate 80 where the HREF has 40-70% probabilities for visibilities in the MVFR range.

CLIMATE

Issued at 108 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Record High Temperatures for February 16th

Dubuque: 60 (1921) Moline : 60 (2022)

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.