textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A break from the recent rainy pattern still looks on track for the second half of the week but some isolated showers cannot be ruled out. There are indications another rainy pattern may return early to mid next week influenced by tropical moisture.

- The cooler than normal trend, especially with daytime temperatures, will continue with some moderation by the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Complex blocked upper air pattern continues to reign acrs much of the CONUS for the mid week. Both sfc and upper level ridge lobing will make for a fair weather day today, but east to northeasterly flow under a sharp H85 to H7 MB inversion will try to advect rounds of stratocu decks in acrs the local area from the east(large decks currently acrs the northeast half of IL and IN). Also if some breaks are able to maintain, Cu Rule parameters suggest that ambient cumulus may form into a heavy broken sky coverage in the diurnal heating of the day. So partly to mostly cloudy skies seem more likley than large amounts of sunshine. Also several CAMs want to break out isolated to sctrd light showers or sprinkles acrs the heart of the DVN CWA in the afternoon heating. Am not confident in this ATTM and will just raise non-mentionable POPs acrs the area for now.

With the clouds in mind, the advertised mid 60s to near 70 seem okay as long as we get a few breaks in the clouds at times. Otherwise there may be more low to mid 60s. Tonight with a few patches of lingering clouds and northeast sfc winds maintaining around 5 KTs, will keep overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s for much of the area but some worry that a few cool air drainage locations could push the mid 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Thursday and Friday...Several of the latest models try to propagate the upstream upper trof seen currently on water vapor imagery acrs eastern ID, toward the upper MS RVR Valley by Thu evening battling ridge complex along the way. This wave will try to sweep in a band of showers from the west Thu and into Thu night, but lingering ridge effects and dry air in place should erode most of the precip as it tries to enter the western CWA. We may just have debris clouds spilling in from the west off this process ruining a mostly sunny forecast for the day. If the clouds arn't too thick, Thu highs may be a degree or two milder than Wednesday. Low temps Thu night generally in the 50s with a few upper 40s possible. Friday will look to be similar to Thursday or maybe continuing to trend a bit warmer if we get the cloud breaks and some insolation. But the next salvo of upper trof energy from the southwestern U.S. will pummel it's way northeastward and take aim at the ridging in place. Moisture advecting processes although not great, are there a little bit more for the synoptic scale forcing to try and bring in at least a few light showers from the west either late Friday night or Saturday, especially along and west of the MS RVR.

Saturday through Tuesday...Part of the incoming trof overhead may translate to more clouds and a few showers acrs the area Saturday putting a damper on high temp potential and they may be held well down in the 60s. The latest medium range ensembles then suggest the upper system to erode/fill in enough for less impact and more sunshine/drier conditions to allow for a warming Sunday with more areas in the 70s. Lingering ridging and some LLVL return flow should keep the dry and warming trends going into Monday, while an inland striding longer wave trof drawing western Gulf moisture looms off to the west. Thus another wet system may be eventually on tap acrs the mid CONUS by early to mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions (ceilings) are expected during the TAF period.

Early morning satellite shows a large expanse of VFR stratus over Illinois moving westward toward the Mississippi River. In advance a band of lower VFR to at times MVFR ceilings has developed in vicinity of DBQ down through CID to FFL. In general, the expectation is for the stratus to lower to MVFR while continuing to slowly advance toward the river terminals. Surface heating ahead of this advancing cloud deck this morning should promote a broken coverage of CU/SC with initial bouts of MVFR ceilings. The ceilings should then lift to VFR this afternoon with scattered to broken VFR clouds into tonight. In addition to the clouds there may also be some sprinkles and isolated light showers today. If they occur there should be little in the way of impacts and will continue to leave out any mention. East to northeast winds will generally range from 5-15 kt throughout the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.