textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning continues through this evening. While the entire area is in critical weather conditions, areas north of I-80 have an even higher risk for extreme fire behavior. Avoid outdoor burning!

- Potential for a couple rounds of showers and t-storms Thursday, with any afternoon/early evening round possibly having an early season severe threat, mainly in Illinois.

- As cooler air arrives, potential for some snow late Thursday night into Friday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Through Tonight: The area-wide Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening due to critical fire weather conditions across the region. Warm temperatures and very low humidity under 20%, combined with strong west-southwest winds gusting 35-45+ mph will continue to result in the fire weather concerns this afternoon and evening. Outdoor burning should be avoided as any fires that develop would quickly spread out of control. Winds will quickly subside tonight as the surface low across Minnesota and Wisconsin begins to fill and the pressure gradient weakens. Temperatures will fall back into the 20s and 30s tonight for lows.

Thursday: Another strong area of low pressure will develop over the Plains and move across the Midwest, taking a much more southerly track compared to the first wave that is up near Lake Superior. The favored track of the secondary low is across eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois northeastward into eastern Wisconsin by Thursday night. Mild SE/E flow out ahead of the low will advect warm air into the region with highs in the 50s/60s central and south, but a little cooler in the NW with forecast highs in the 40s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon with increasing coverage into the evening hours, spreading south to north through the outlook area. The air mass will be very dry initially with dewpoints in the 20s; however, moisture advection in the column will bring higher PWATs (0.50"+) and better low- level moisture into the area by the afternoon/evening. The HREF has surface dewpoints reaching to around 40 F in the Quad Cities and into the mid 40s to near 50 F to the east within in a very narrow theta-e ridge ahead of a dryline feature punching in from the southwest. This could result in a brief period of surfaced-based instability mainly east of the Quad Cities during the mid afternoon through late evening period with a risk for a few strong/severe thunderstorms (SPC has maintained the Marginal Risk -- level 1 of 5 -- in this area). The primary threats are isolated damaging winds, hail, and a low risk for a brief tornado. Severe weather probabilities continue to be higher off to the east into portions of central Illinois and into Indiana.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Cold advection behind the attendant cold front later Thursday night into Friday morning will foster the potential for rain to change to snow with any wrap-around or deformation zone precip pivoting on the northwest side of the surface low. WPC's ensemble distribution has a 30-70% chance for 1"+ of accumulation north of a line from Dubuque to northern Linn Co. The highest values are north of Independence. Amounts for 2"+ drop off to 30-40% near and north of Independence. With that said, there is potential for a narrow band of heavy snow to develop which could result in higher amounts. The greatest uncertainty is on the placement which is currently favored more into north-central Iowa. However, have low confidence on the exact placement at this time and will have to continue to monitor closely for any shifts to the east. While the pavement will be warm initially, temperatures are expected to drop below freezing so it won't take much to get wet snow accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces. Accumulation on pavement will be more difficult given the warm antecedent conditions, but is possible in any moderate/briefly heavy bands of snow. It is also worth noting that winds concurrent with any snow may be gusting at 30+ mph.

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable conditions are expected this weekend through Monday with highs in the 20s/30s and lows in the 20s/teens.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 433 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty W/SW winds will begin to subside over the next 1-3 hrs, as the sun sets and the boundary layer decouples. High level clouds will increase early Thursday ahead of next approaching wave over the central Plains. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm may occur late in the period near the terminals, but confidence too low to mention in the TAF at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

One of the most favorable fire weather setups for our area is expected today. SPC is messaging a 'high-end' critical fire weather day across our area. Before we get into the specifics, any fire that starts today will catch and spread rapidly exhibiting extreme fire behavior. Outdoor burning should not be attempted today! Be careful with discarded cigarettes and if a fire develops follow local officials guidance!

A 'cold' front is expected to move through the area this morning. While the front won't bring in much cooler air, it does bring in much drier air along with strong winds. These strong winds will help to mix down drier air and warm temperatures even more. RH values this afternoon in the mid teens are forecast. This is very low for our area. That combined with winds, sometimes gusting to 50 mph, especially north of I-80 will set the stage an explosive environment if any fire would start. GFDI values approaching 100, are forecast. These are some of the highest values I have ever seen forecast for the area, demonstrating just how bad any fire would be today. With strong winds across the north, power outages could occur and sparks could lead to fires as well. Be very weather aware today and if a fire starts, follow any evacuation orders.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-010.