textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will remain through the forecast period, with widespread temperatures in the 40s this week and 50s possible this weekend.

- Precipitation chances will remain limited, with low-end precipitation chances Thursday and again this weekend.

- Extended forecasts continue to favor above normal temperatures and precipitation for the next work week, with 60s not out of question for some at the start.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Post-Frontal airmass is in place now, with high pressure working into the area tonight through Wednesday. This stretch of the forecast will feature quiet weather, with unseasonably mild temperatures. For reference, temperatures reached the mid-upper 40s through much of the area today, with some in our south in the 50s! To put this in perspective, normal high temperatures for this time of the year are in the low-mid 30s. High pressure overhead with little moisture in place will allow for mostly clear sky conditions as well, with light winds tonight through Wednesday. Cold advection will kick in tonight, with radiational cooling helping us drop into the mid 20s. Tomorrow, temperatures will increase into the mid-upper 40s once again, setting the stage for another seasonally-pleasant day.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 118 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

On Thursday, a shortwave trough/clipper system is progged to dive southeastward from parts of ND/MN through the region in the afternoon and early evening. There is general agreement on this system shearing/weakening as it encounters confluent flow downstream. However, still a sufficient mid level fgen response in conjunction with the entrance region of an upper level jet may result in a rather narrow band of light precipitation shifting across the area on Thursday. Thermal profiles and top down saturation would appear to support a mix of rain and snow (AM). NBM probabilities continue to decrease for 0.1" of QPF, now being <20% chances north of Interstate 80. As a result, this should be a very light precipitation event, possibly only bring flurries/drizzle. This is reflected well through the model suite, especially amongst guidance that came in aggressively with QPF potential over the last few days. Little to no travel impacts are expected with warm pavement temps aided by solar absorption and milder air, along with light precip rates all leading to mainly wet roadways.

Beyond, confidence is high on above normal temperatures this weekend into much of next week. In fact, we are likely to see our warmest temperatures of this mild stretch next week as the medium range guidance is in good agreement on amplifying an upper ridge through the central CONUS early in the week, followed by west/southwest flow aloft ahead of a western trough. The peak of the warmth is looking like Monday and Tuesday where 2m temperature anomalies of +15 to +25F are being depicted. This would support highs in the 50s for many, with some 60s possible!

While confidence is high on temperatures this weekend into early next week, confidence on precipitation potential is low. The ECMWF and GFS continue to offer little phasing of the northern and southern streams, which results in a system crossing southern California late week passing well south of the area this weekend, leading to a dry forecast. The ensemble means of both the GFS and ECMWF as well as their AI runs however show a little more interaction of the two streams. This results in a bit further northward track of the southern system leading to some precipitation potential swiping the area, particularly south. A closer look at the ensembles of GFS and ECMWF show that a majority of the membership is well south on the track and dry for our region. The NBM continues to decrease PoPs for the weekend from previous runs, but still appears quite generous (20-40%) and likely being influenced by the more northerly GEM/GEPS. But, looking further into the NBM precipitation accums really reinforces the uncertainty, with a difference of zero accumulation with the 25th and 50th percentiles to 0.4 inches with the 75th percentile in our south. Thus, uncertainty remains, but we continue to see a downward trend in the precipitation chances. If we do see any precipitation, temperature profiles would largely favor rain as the primary precipitation type. A dry forecast is not out of question for this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1106 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Aside from some brief cig reductions to MVFR at CID/DBQ for the next few hours, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be the main concern, with northwesterly gusts upwards to 25 KTs today. After 00z, we will see these winds decrease to about 10KT for the remainder of the night. No sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.