textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost Advisory remains in effect for late tonight through daybreak Saturday for much of the area besides the southeast third of the DVN CWA where there may be more clouds hanging on. Steps should be taken to protect any sensitive outdoor vegetation.

- The latest model ensembles still suggest a blocked pattern will maintain a general northwest flow across the region for the first half of the period, with embedded waves and fronts combining with diurnal instability/heating to produce almost daily chances of precip in or near the forecast area.

- Warm up for Sunday into Monday, before cooling back down into mid next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight...Several types of satellite imagery were showing the vort complex aloft stretching from Ontario, acrs the northeastern plains and back toward the OH RVR Valley. A max was noted acrs the central Dakotas, with a secondary wave acrs IA rolling toward the DVN CWA ATTM. The upstream vort spoke will drop to the west of the local area of concern and not be a factor, while the one almost overhead will continue to combine with diurnal heating to produce sctrd instability showers and possibly some flashes of lightning through early evening before fading after sunset. Then with cool airmass in place and low sfc DPTs, a later night clear out acrs much of the area to combine with light sfc winds under a sharp inversion for frost formation. Will leave the ongoing headlines as is(unless last minute change to expand occurs), banking on lingering mid and high clouds off departing upper wave acrs the southeast to keep low temp potential acrs those areas more in the mid 30s and marginal. Otherwise a lot of low to mid 30s tonight, and agree with the previous shift that some cold air drainage locations in the north may get into the upper 20s. But not widespread enough for a freeze warning.

Saturday...a passing sfc high along with some upper ridging to make for a decent day with sunshine and fair wx cumulus. Fcst soundings mix out produces widespread upper 50s to low 60s with a continued light sfc wind regime. Saturday night, a sfc front will organize acrs the northeastern plains and drop toward the upper MS RVR Valley through Sunday morning as the sfc ridge migrates off to the east. This will allow for increasing southwesterly return flow and probably non-diurnal temp trends as Sat night progresses. Depending on adequate moisture return by then, some chance for WAA type showers or even a thunderstorm in portions of or near the DVN CWA late Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Sunday...A breezy warm sector day changing to a FROPA day as it progresses allowing for high temps in the 60s and 70s and some chance for a shower or storm during the day but a EML may be at play capping more widespread development. The latest ensemble trends suggest a better thunderstorm scenario developing along and south of the DVN CWA acrs MO into south central IL Sunday night as a nocturnal LLVL jet focuses on the front laying out from west-to-east acrs those areas.

Monday through Thursday...The latest ensembles suggest a pattern reload of the Sunday scenario on Monday, but a stronger cool front and pre- frontal warming to make Monday the warmest day of the fcst period. This may also be a window for more substantial shower and thunderstorm development later Monday afternoon and evening, depending on moisture return into the incoming FROPA process. Latest medium range ensembles suggest the blocked pattern to evolve into a long wave trof from acrs the southwestern Rockies to the GRT LKS as the week progresses. The lower level baroclinic convective action zone may then lay out just to the lee of this feature acrs the southern plains and up the OH RVR Valley for much of next week. The local fcst area and western GRT LKS region would lay out under the cool side of this pattern for below normal temps mid to late week and generally drier conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Another upper level wave inducing sctrd mainly light showers this afternoon and early evening, before moving on for a clear out later tonight and into Saturday morning. An isolated thunderstorm also possible especially south of I-80. Mainly a VFR fcst, unless a passing shower manages to move right over a TAF site and temporarily produce at least MVFR VSBYs and possible MVFR CIGs. Generally light west to northwest sfc winds or variable through most of the period. There is a chance for a passing shower to produce a variable wind gust up to 25 KTs through this evening. Saturday generally a VFR day through 00z Sunday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087-088-098. IL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for ILZ001-002- 007-009-015. MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ009.