textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak upper level disturbance will bring flurries and possibly patchy light snow late tonight into Monday morning.

- An active weather pattern will be seen this week with several systems passing near or over the area. Each system has the potential to bring some precipitation to the area.

- Another surge of arctic cold will settle into the Midwest for the end of the week and weekend. This arctic cold is be monitored for any potential cold headlines.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 224 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday night/Tuesday Assessment...high to very high (80-90%) confidence of a clipper system side-swiping parts of the area

The first of many systems races from the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday morning. Based on the track being well north of the area, the better forcing and moisture will move from Minnesota into Wisconsin. The forecasted water equivalent remain under 0.02 inches. Thus flurries or possibly a brief period of light snow is possible east of a Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL line. If the light snow scenario is realized, accumulations would only be a dusting.

Breaks developing in the clouds combined with southerly flow will help boost temperatures above normal for Tuesday.

Tuesday night/Wednesday Assessment...high to very high (80-90%) confidence of a second clipper system impacting the area

Right on the heels of the first clipper system, another clipper system will move through the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Like the previous system, the track is north of the area but further south. Unlike the first system, all models have this system stronger (985-990 mb center). Thus with this system being a tad further south, it will transport moisture into the area allowing light precipitation to occur across the area.

With the initial warmer temperatures across the area, the precipitation will start out as rain with a potential rain/snow mix developing late Tuesday night in the Highway 20 corridor before ending Wednesday morning.

Given the differences in the track of this system, the model consensus has expanded the coverage of precipitation to most of the area. Precipitation chances range from 15-50 percent south of an Manchester, IA to Galva, IL line. North and east of this line precipitation chances are 55 to 75 percent.

The strength of this storm system means that windy conditions will develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

Wednesday night through Thursday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on light accumulating snow occurring

All global models show a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday. The Boehmke rule is satisfied, thus the precipitation will be in the form of snow.

In looking at the NBM 10-90th percentiles, the maximum water equivalent would be around 0.10 inches with a higher probability of it being less. With overnight temperatures expected to be in the teens, the snow has a higher probability of being the dry, fluffy type (i.e. rain/snow ratios greater than 12 to 1). In using the mean water equivalent of 0.03 inches, such a ratio would translate into just under an inch of accumulation for the likely max amount. Most areas would thus see a dusting of accumulation.

There are timing differences between the models which translates into on 30-50 percent chances for snow. I fully expect the snow chances to slowly increase as the week progresses.

The bulk of the snow looks to be during the day Thursday with snow beginning late Wednesday night and ending Thursday evening.

Friday through Sunday Assessment...a certainty (>99% confidence) of another arctic surge into the Midwest

The global models show another arctic surge into the Midwest for the end of the week and into the weekend. The trigger will be the passage of an arctic cold front either very late Thursday night or during the day on Friday.

The strength of the arctic surge associated with the front raises a strong potential for flurries or snow showers along with wind gusts of at least 30 mph. Right now the model consensus has Friday dry but I suspect this will change as the week progresses.

After the arctic front passes, well below normal temperatures will be seen Friday night through Sunday. The wind will be slow to diminish Friday night. The situation needs to be watched but the potential is there for cold headlines Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday night into Sunday. Of the two nights, the probability of a cold headline is higher for Friday night than it is for Saturday night.

The Friday night through Sunday time frame will be mainly dry. However, there is a weak upper level disturbance that will move through the area Saturday night that could produce light snow or flurries. This far out the signal is quite weak but the model consensus is generating 15 percent chances for light snow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak storm system moving across the area this evening is forecast to bring VFR clouds to the area tonight as well as the possibility of flurries at KCID and KDBQ overnight with no restrictions in visibility expected. VFR conditions are expected through the day with light winds turning to the south after 12 UTC and increasing to 5 to 10 knots.

Another storm is forecast to pass to the north after 00 UTC Tuesday with widespread MVFR ceilings developing across the area and south around 10 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.