textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front is progged to pass through the area through the evening, with strong gradient winds expected on the backside. A Wind Advisory remains in effect into Wednesday.

- Thanksgiving forecast looks to be a quiet and cool day, with temperatures in the 30s and seasonal breeziness.

- Wintry weather is likely as we head into the weekend, as a seasonally strong storm system passes through the Midwest. Uncertainty remains on timing and overall impacts, but the trend continues to trend snowy.

UPDATE

Issued at 810 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

I have updated wind headlines to start now in the western portion over Iowa and far western Illinois, and starting at midnight farther east. Winds initially gusted with the narrow shower activity with the front, but we're now seeing wind gusts over 40 mph spreading into western counties as of 8 PM. This is earlier than our advisory timing, so I've sped up the timing quite a bit for this. So far, it looks like the wind speeds will be near 50 mph on peak gusts, so at not expecting to upgrade to a warning at this time.

Snow showers are as far south as Highway 20 in western Iowa, and we'll keep an eye on that. So far, visibilities in that latitude have not been too low, only around 6 miles in -SN.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Relatively active forecast through this evening and into tomorrow. A potent wave will continue to work into our area this evening and through tonight, with an accompanying seasonally strong cold front. As the cold front passes through this evening, we will see the chance for light rain showers along the front, but overall accumulations will be low/limited. The next chance for precipitation will come along on the backside of the system, late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With this round of precipitation, cold temperatures will be in place, allowing for this to fall as light snow. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to low 30 tonight, behind the cold front. Cool grounds may allow for light accumulation (generally <1") for those in our far north, generally along the Highway 20 corridor. Confidence remains low on accumulation at this time though.

Otherwise, our next weather concern revolves around the strong winds that will result from this system. Tonight, we will see winds quickly pick up along/behind frontal passage this evening. Winds will gradually increase overnight, with strongest winds expected by sunrise Wednesday, lasting through the morning. This is owing to a strong pressure gradient induced over the area from the passing wave. Strongest gradient winds will be seen over our northern half of the area, where gusts upwards to 45-50 mph are expected. Some areas may see locally higher gusts, with 55 mph not out of question in our far north. Aside from the winds, tomorrow will feature a post- frontal airmass. Windy conditions will persist through the day, with temperatures in the 30s and clouds slowly decreasing from the south. The combination of stronger winds and cold temperatures will make it feel quite unpleasant out there. Thus, we may have wind chills in the teens to low 20s for much of the day. Don't forget your coat tomorrow!

Wednesday night, we don't quite lose the winds. Fortunately, they will be lighter than seen earlier in the day, but gusts upwards to 20-25 mph will still be possible going into the night. Temperatures will be in the low-mid 20s throughout as well, with mostly clear skies. Thus, a brisk night is expected.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving will be a nice transitional day from one active stretch of weather to the next, with high pressure passing through the region. Thus, we will continue to see mostly clear skies throughout, but seasonal breeziness and cool temperatures remain. So, while we are looking at quiet weather, it will be a little cooler than normal. Thus, a dry and breezy holiday is expected, with temperatures in the mid 30s.

Late on Friday and through the holiday weekend, we are in for an active stretch of weather. As we have discussed over the last few forecast packages, there is a system out there that we have our eyes on. This system will likely bring the potential for widespread wintry weather, which may result in impacts to post-holiday travel. There remains some uncertainty still. Although, guidance continues to trend on the colder side of things, which would favor the potential for snow throughout the area. This is a new trend, only becoming more snowy over the last 24 hours, but we continue to see this trend continue in daytime updates. Thus, the cooler trend seems to be the main scenario to mention at this time. Although, as was mentioned, uncertainty exists. There is still plenty of time for the track to change, which will impact timing and precipitation type. So, we will have to continue to monitor. At this time, guidance does seem to agree on a southerly track, bringing snow to much, if not all, of the area. The best chance for rain to mix in is currently favored south of Interstate 80, generally focused around the Highway 34 corridor. Rather than this being a quick-hitting system, this does seem to be a longer duration event. Thus, this would seem to be light-moderate snow over a span of hours, rather than a 6-hour intense period of snow. This can also change as more guidance comes in through the week, but figured this would give an idea for what we may dealing with at this time, aiding in planning for travel.

As was mentioned, the NBM continues to favor accumulating slow, with an 80%+ chance for at least 2" along/north of Interstate 80 over the span of the weekend. South of the interstate has about a 30-50% chance. These probabilities line up quite well with ensemble guidance at this point. The potential (30-70% chance) does exist for several inches of snow accumulation. So, it will be best to start holiday travel planning in advance, in case travel becomes dangerous this weekend.

Sunday, we will largely be in the wake of this system, where we should start to see most/all precipitation taper off through the morning. From there, a northwest flow regime will set up, ushering even cooler air into the area. Thus, daytime temperatures might very well be in the 20s early next week. This will allow any new snow from the weekend to stick around a little bit. We are also seeing the potential for this active pattern to continue. So, precipitation chances will also be on the table for next week. Thus, buckle/bundle up, as the quiet weather that we have largely had for a couple months is coming to a close.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A strong cold frontal passage is occurring at the top of the hour, right at the onset of the 00z TAF cycle. With the the front, DBQ, MLI, and BRL will be experiencing a IFR windy 30 minutes to 1 hour, with rain, drizzle, and brief, very gusty winds up to 38kts from the west. This is a temporary condition, and may be already over at 00z in some locations, but I've included it in these sites since it may linger past 00z. After that first, rather ugly hour, west winds of 15 to 25 kts are expected with conditions potentially improving to VFR in the wake of the front. CID is already seeing this on the horizon as of 23Z. This VFR period is difficult to time in for any site, but may last up to 3 hours, before a prolonged period of MVFR conditions and high winds spread in, for the rest of period. Wind gusts up to 40 kts are possible, but most hours we'll be looking at northwest winds of 20-25 kts, gusting to 35 to 38 kts.

Late in the period, some clearing may take place, but given low confidence on timing that in, I've opted to leave the MVFR cigs around 1500 ft going through the end of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ015-024>026-034- 035. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002-007-009-016>018. MO...None.