textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- While passing systems will bring shifting winds and fluctuating temperatures through next week, above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Early morning analysis places a surface low over the Arrowhead of MN with a warm front draped to the south through central IA where low level warm advection on a SW wind has bumped temps into the 50s in many areas. A weak cold front /wind shift/ extends from the low through portions of SD. Aloft, an anomalous upper ridge /record breaking heat dome/ was located over the Desert SW with our area residing in NW flow. A passing wave through the northern Great Lakes will usher in the weak cold front today with little fanfare aside from a windshift with SSW winds veering to NW and some clouds. Mixing into a lingering low-mid level warm wedge (925 hPa ~13c to 18c N-S) post-frontal will support highs actually warmer than those of Thursday, and ranging from the upper 60s/near 70 north to near 80 south. This is near 75th+ percentile of NBM blend, which seems quite reasonable with NBM cool bias and being slow to catch up to warming potential given rapid snowmelt and a lowering albedo. The result is the potential for a near record high at Burlington, please see the Climate section below.

High pressure builds into the Great Lakes region tonight with winds becoming light while veering to E/NE. Lows are expected to drop into the upper 30s to upper 40s, coolest northeast and warmest southwest with a mix of clouds and stars. There is some potential for lake stratus and fog particularly northeast.

On Saturday, the front stalled to our south will surge back northward as a warm front ahead of low pressure shifting from the Northern Plains to WI by evening. Strong low level WAA (925 hPa temps 18c to 23c) and afternoon mixing will lead to an anomalously warm day likely shy of record highs but could be close at Moline. In general highs look to range from the low/mid 70s northeast to the lower 80s with possibly a few sites near 85 far west/south under a mix of sun and clouds.

As the low continues to shift east Saturday night it will send the cold front into the area, roughly north of I-80 by 12z Sunday. Moisture is limited and thus precipitation chances appear slim for light rain. Ahead of the front it will be a mild night Saturday night with lows mainly in the 50s to near 60 south of I-80, while to the north lows will drop into the 40s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Sunday is a challenge for highs as evidence by the IQRs of 10-20 degrees in 25th and 75th percentiles of NBM blends. Greatest spread is denoted between Hwy 30 and Hwy 34 roughly near the frontal placement during the day on Sunday. With trends seemingly toward a faster frontal passage, I can see highs needing to be lowered north of Hwy 30 (near 50 or upper 40s possible?) and the warm sector pre- frontal 70s narrowing in scope across our south.

Otherwise, semi-zonal to WNW flow aloft is expected early to mid next week. This will likely shuttle some upper level waves down in or near the region at times, but moisture does look to be limited to where the forecast remains mainly dry Monday through Wednesday. The main challenge will remain temperatures with likely swings /roller coaster/ warming ahead of waves and then cooling in the wake.

There remains a signal for precipitation chances returning over the latter half of next week, as we see the Polar jet ramping over the Northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes. Our region looks to reside near the southern flank in diffluent 1000-500 hPa thickness supportive of some precip potential via propagation and or developing aided by jet entrance region support. The question though remains on if there will be sufficient moisture to support this potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Fog along/near portions of the Mississippi River will impact KDBQ at the start of the period with MVFR/IFR visibility and a low chance (<20%) of LIFR. The fog extends down through Savanna (KSFY), with another segment on the Mississippi south of Fort Madison (KFSW). Other river valleys could see patchy fog, particularly along the Rock River near KMLI, though so far this appears to be very patchy and not impacting the terminal. Winds have increased near 2kft agl from W/SW to 40 kt per KDVN VWP and will continue with LLWS mention for the first few hours. This wind just off the surface is also likely aiding in preventing fog from becoming too widespread in addition to high cloudiness.

Any fog should dissipate after sunrise leaving behind VFR conditions. Surface winds will veer from WSW to NW today at around 10-15 kt with sporadic gusts near 20+ kt possible.

High pressure building into Wisconsin tonight will lead to decreasing winds while veering to E/NE. This flow could advect in some lake stratus and fog near KDBQ and possibly KMLI late in the period and just beyond, but confidence is too low for mention as wind speeds look marginal for this too occur at this time.

CLIMATE

Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Record Highs:

March 20 Burlington: 80 in 2012 Cedar Rapids: 77 in 2012 Dubuque: 80 in 2012 Moline: 82 in 2012

March 21 Burlington: 88 in 1907 Cedar Rapids: 85 in 1938 and previous Dubuque: 81 in 1938 Moline: 82 in 1938 and previous

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.