textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant travel impacts expected late this afternoon into Monday with very strong winds, falling snow, and blowing snow leading to blizzard conditions. This will impact the Monday AM commute.

- Much colder on Monday and Tuesday with a warming trend beginning midweek.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The severe threat has ended across the area with surface low lifting to east of Galesburg and a warm front stretching northeastward toward Kenosha Wisconsin. This places Bureau and Putnam Counties on the cold side of the warm front with no severe thunderstorms expected. Small hail is likely with stronger storms.

The surface low has trended farther to the south than originally forecast and is expected to deepen further as large scale ascent increases with the arrival of the 500 MB trough late this afternoon and into this evening. The cold front is also surging quickly eastward across the area early this afternoon. The temperatures have fallen into the 30s behind the front. The forecast net effect has been to move up the arrival of the cold front and quicken the falling temperatures across the area into this evening. This will also slightly increase the snowfall totals across the area, along with potentially some convective- type snowfall rates early-mid evening.

Very strong winds will make the snowfall very difficult to measure, although it is important to remember total snowfall is one of and probably not the main message with this (winds and blowing snow are). Snowfall totals of 6 to 10 inches are possible over the northeast third of the CWA with 5 to 9 north of a Iowa City to Geneseo line, with 2 to 4 inches south of that line. A Blizzard Warning will go into effect for much of this area by early evening. The lowest totals are expected across far northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for this area.

This system will continue to intensify as the surface low lifts into the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient will become tighter across the region as this occurs leading to wind speeds rapidly increasing to 25 to 35 MPH with gusts between 50 to 60 MPH late this afternoon through daybreak Monday. While there is some uncertainty on snow ratios, these speeds are far and away enough to lead to widespread blowing and drifting snow. When snow is falling too, this should result in areas of near zero visibility, especially in open locations. Additionally, continuing falling temperatures will cause untreated surfaces to freeze quickly adding to additional travel hazards making it dangerous to impossible to travel. Temperatures will fall into the teens areawide by Monday morning, with wind chill values on Monday morning at 10 to 15 below zero for a few hours through mid morning. This looks to fall short of a Cold Weather Advisory.

There is uncertainty on how bad visibility will be in blowing snow Monday after daybreak because the falling snow in the deformation area will have likely ended. While confidence is high that there will be at least hazardous travel, the "dangerous" aspect will be regularly evaluated. If they were not to be as bad in some areas, we would consider transitioning to another winter headline. Confidence is highest in the blizzard conditions across eastern Iowa from I-80 northward with climatological support for that area.

Monday will be much colder with high temperatures ranging from 15 degrees above zero northwest of Cedar rapids to the mid 20s in far southeast Iowa, northeast Missouri, northwest Illinois south of Interstate 80. Winds will very slowly decrease through the day with gusts up to 35 MPH possible during the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Little change in the long term period forecast. Northwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the period. Another fast moving storms system will move across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will bring a chance of snow to the area. Snowfall amounts will be light with this storm system.

After a cold start to the week, warm up is forecast to begin across the area on Wednesday with temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s by the end of the week.

There is another subtle shortwave in the flow toward the end of the week but there is disagreement on the timing and location of this wave and its impact on the area. Currently, the forecast is dry with the better forcing and moisture to our north.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate to below minimums at all TAF sites through the overnight. When snow finally ends, blowing sn will lead to IFR/MVFR conditions and possibly zero visibility right above the ground. So there could remain an issue with seeing runways into Monday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>053- 063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099. High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ054-066-068. IL...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ015-024>026. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024>026. High Wind Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 016>018. Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ034-035. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for ILZ034-035. MO...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010.