textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance of severe storms this afternoon/evening mainly east of the Mississippi where there is a slight, level 2 out of 5, risk of severe storms. The primary risk is damaging winds. Brief tornadoes are a secondary risk.

- A QLCS, likely severe, will impact areas along/north of I-80 Tuesday morning. Damaging wind is the primary risk with a secondary risk of brief spin-up tornadoes. Much of the area is in a slight to enhanced, levels 2 and 3 out of 5, risk for Tuesday.

- A heat advisory has been issued for areas along/south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line. Depending upon storm evolution Tuesday, this headline may need to be extended further north.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A convectively induced vort max continues to move east across Iowa and will generate diurnal showers and storms along/east of the Mississippi through the evening. With a boundary present and high CAPE values building in the atmosphere, isolated to scattered severe storms will be possible with the primary risk being damaging winds. Brief spin-up tornadoes are a secondary risk.

Once storms dissipate this evening a period of quiet but very muggy conditions will be seen until an approaching storm complex arrives around sunrise Tuesday.

Tuesday morning will be interesting.

Data so far indicates that the Tuesday morning storm complex will likely be a QLCS. Damaging winds, potentially over 70 mph, will be the primary risk. A secondary risk will be brief spin-up tornadoes. Right now areas along/north of I-80 appear to have the higher risk of severe storms.

A fairly significant cold pool should be generated from the storm complex which may bring some relief to the very humid conditions across the northern half of the area Tuesday. However, the cold pool and associated outflow boundary will then provide the focus for potential diurnal storm development Tuesday afternoon.

Further south, hot and humid conditions will be seen. A heat advisory has been issued for areas along/south of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line. Depending upon how the Tuesday morning storms develop/evolve, the heat headline may or may not need to be extended further north.

If diurnal storms develop Tuesday afternoon they will dissipate shortly after sunset leaving another muggy night for the area.

There are questions regarding late Tuesday night as another disturbance moves around the edge of the heat dome. This disturbance could initiate another storm complex that arrives in the area around sunrise Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tuesday...May initially be active if the Monday night-Tue morning shortwave and MCS verifies, but after that feature exits the rest of Tue and Tue night may be mainly dry or at risk for only an isolated storm. Current NBM loaded temps and DPTs are hot and very humid for Tuesday and easily supportive of heat headlines. But again there is much uncertainty on convective trends, and cloud debris/storm outflow interfering with the ambient temps and how much afternoon time there would be for recovery. Will still message the potential but make heat headline issuance a day by day process for now.

Wednesday through Sunday...Medium range ensembles and upper jet patterns show the main upper ridge bulge trying to press it's way eastward acrs the southern plains and low to mid MS RVR Valley mid to late week. This process may try to shunt the main storm track more off just to the north of the local area, or if it stalls some keep us in the bullseye of continued daily ring of fire late week and even into the weekend. The temperature battle will continue as well with LLVL baroclinicity and thermal ribbon wavering acrs the region for high heat or not so bad depending on the daily flux. Will keep the idea if this pattern holds, there could be quite a bit of rainfall build up over the week from the west central plains, acrs IA/IL and over to the eastern OH RVR Valley. It's still early, but currently Thu night looks like a potentail heavy rainfall MCS night in the area especially south of I-80.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Mostly VFR conditions were observed over the area early this evening, with some isolated MVFR ceilings seen near DBQ. Speaking of DBQ, there may be some isolated storms this evening there, but confidence is pretty low on them occurring, given the spread among the models, so used a PROB30 group there.

The main focus for this TAF set remains on a thunderstorm complex that's expected to move through the northern portions of the area near/after sunrise Tuesday morning. DBQ and CID are likely to be impacted by this complex, and the storms could be pretty strong, possibly packing winds to around 40 to 50 knots. With this said, we've opted for TEMPO groups to highlight the most likely timing of the storms. If this storm moves overhead, expect IFR to possibly LIFR conditions (mainly from visibility reductions) for a time. Once the storms move out, the remainder of the TAF period should be dry, with southerly flow around 5 to 10 knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ087>089-098- 099. IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ025-026-034- 035. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ009-010.