textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly a dry and seasonable Saturday, with precipitation chances then increasing again late Saturday night into Sunday. Strong to severe storms possible Sunday and Monday in or near the local area.

- An active pattern keeps rain chances going through at least the middle part of next week, but with plenty of dry hours in between. Increasing heat and humidity as well into the early week period with portions of the area potentially in the eventual need for heat headlines Sunday-Monday, depending on clouds and precip.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

With a weak front slipping through the area, will have to keep low CHC POPs for an isolated shower or thunderstorm early in the period but then the rest of the day should be mainly dry and seasonable with highs in the low to mid 80s. With increasing northwest sfc winds and some clouds, hopefully no fog worth mention this morning or just a little patchy occurring where the recent heavy rain fell.

Later tonight, extrapolating an upstream a ridge-riding Pacific NW short wave down toward the area in flattening northwesterlies aloft toward Sunday morning. Elevated WAA ahead of this feature and a 25 KT southwesterly LLJ may fuel sctrd showers and thunderstorms perculating acrs the area after Midnight into Sunday morning. Besides maybe some small hail, current progged thermodynamics and kinematic profiles suggest mainly non-severe elevated storms Sunday morning. Several CAMs don't have that much activity locally until after 10-12z Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Sunday...Could be an interesting day but plenty of uncertainty, with morning elevated precip and debris clouds possibly tempering the heat up potential, as well as the ongoing short wave passage that day and the sfc front trying to retreat back to the north as a warm front. The big question is where the LLVL thermal axis lays out for LLVL convergence to act on for renewed convection initiation to take off Sunday afternoon. With current effective shear progs of 35- 45 KTs helped in part by strengthening mid level jet flow, and potential MUCAPEs of 2-3K J/kg, there looks to be a combo of support for severe storms and damaging winds. But again where this axis of development occurs is still uncertain. Several ensembles suggest this axis could be right acrs the local area say from north central IA into north central IN Sunday evening, while several other models lay it out for most of the action to occur just off to the north and northeast acrs WI. Depending on what occurs late Sat night into Sunday morning will determine what occurs Sunday afternoon and evening(boundary and outflow lay-out), but will have to take into account that at least a portion of the local CWA may be in line for trouble and potentially nasty storms.

The same thinking about boundaries and cloud debris will have to be taken into account if ambient temps can warm up enough to support heat headlines. Right now we are advertising high temps in the upper 80s to around 90 with at least mid 70 DPTs making for heat index readings in the low 100s along and south of I-80. With the uncertainty, will hold off any heat headlines for now.

Monday through Friday...With the flattening ridge transition, the local area may be under the battle zone of the LLVL thermal gradient and upper level short wave propagation path for almost daily chance of showers and storms for much of next week. If not for cloud debris and boundary placement, Monday and Tuesday may be hot enough for heat headlines as well at least for portions of the local area(most likley the south half). A deep summer MCS-track for much of the week from the central plains over to the southern GRT LKS and OH RVR Valley may add up to quite a bit of rainfall by next Thursday or Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A weak cold front was positioned from KCID to near KDBQ early this morning. Weak winds, abundant moisture and radiational cooling has allowed for some patchy fog particularly at KDBQ to start with variable visibilities from MVFR to VLIFR. Expect improvement to VFR early on at KDBQ as the winds shift to the northwest albeit remaining light with a veering to north/northwest winds at all sites by mid morning. Some stratocu and potential for transitory bouts of MVFR ceilings does exist mid to late morning, but too low of confidence to include at this time. Tonight, there is a general consensus signal for chances of shra/tsra developing late this evening and especially overnight (09/06z-09/12z). Forecast probabilities are generally 30-50% and thus handled with PROB30 mention, but can't rule out higher coverage necessitating TEMPO or prevailing mention at some sites.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.