textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Risk for a wintry mix Sunday remains under 15%.

- Above normal temperatures likely for much of next week, with highs in the 50s.

- Active/wet period to develop late next week, with a possible pattern change after that.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

With what seems like a broken record we have yet another cloudy day with a upper level clipper moving north and east of the area. At the surface, high pressure kept drier air in place. This meant no precip was reported in the area today. As the wave moves off to the east, a weaker wave will move across Iowa this evening, re-inforcing the clouds that are in place. These clouds will remain in place, especially across Iowa tonight.

Tomorrow, upper level ridging builds into the area as another wave moves just north of the area. The main slug of moisture with this wave moves through the area later in the period and into Sunday afternoon and evening. As with the system today, dry low levels will limit any precip potential. CAMs keep all of the model reflectivity north of the area, supporting the spectral model output of drier low levels. Low-level RH increases into Sunday evening, but this is on the back on of the forcing. Overall, keeping sub 15% pops for this. If it were to occur we could see some freezing drizzle or rain, but with low RH, think this would be isolated in nature and thus not that impactful.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Overall zonal flow is expected through much of the beginning of next week. There are waves that move through this flow, leading to short bouts of ridging and southwest flow. There are also a series of waves that move through this flow. Most of them appear to be dry as they move through, suggesting more clouds and possibly some wind as well through at least midweek.

At the same time, temperatures will moderate and we see H85 temps reaching 10C by 18z Monday which will be near the daily max for the day per SPC climatology. NBM probabilities for high temperatures greater than 45 degrees are now in the 50-100% range along and south of Hwy 30 Monday through Thursday! While not quite record high territory yet (low-mid 50s are records at CID/DBQ), any more warming in future forecasts with no snow on the ground will get us closer. As usual with this time of year, clouds will throw a wrench in the temperature forecast as well.

Later in the week, guidance is consistent with a stronger system to end the week. The western US trof starts to dig south, turning the flow SW. A leading wave is expected to move through the flow before an even stronger system moves into from the four corners region to the area to end the week. This could lead to cyclogenesis just to the south and east of the area. Regardless of what happens, we do look to see a decent chance for precip returning to the area. We will need to keep an eye on this system to see if guidance comes into better agreement as any shift in the route could lead to more/less rain and even some rumbles of thunder.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected during the TAF cycle. MVFR should be largely dominant with some VFR periods possible especially later this evening and overnight, and again developing Sunday afternoon into evening from south to north with a lifting warm front. There is also a very low chance (20%) for a period of IFR ceilings on Sunday at KCID and KDBQ. Winds will be from the N/NW at less than 10 kt this evening before shifting to light E/SE Sunday morning. Then, with the passing warm front Sunday afternoon winds are expected to turn gusty from the S/SW at 10-20+ kt.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.