textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire risk today, especially south of I-80 with northerly winds gusting 25-35 mph.

- Much cooler conditions into Monday.

- Passing systems the second half of next week will bring fluctuating temperatures and shifting winds. While there are rain chances, moisture availability will limit overall coverage.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

2 AM surface analysis places a cold front extending from just north of Milwaukee to a weak low west of Dubuque then southwestward to near Des Moines and Omaha. The frontal wave will exit to the east prior to daybreak, which will allow the front to surge southward exiting our far southern counties by mid to late morning. This will be accompanied by N/NE winds gusting generally 25-35 mph, with the potential for a few transitory higher gusts around 45 mph this morning near and just behind the frontal passage with strong subsidence from incoming colder air aiding momentum transfer of around 40 kt of wind near 1kft agl. These winds and attendant cold advection will sweep away our early summer preview and bring back a much cooler and more seasonable airmass. Ramping mid level Fgen 850-700 hPa post-frontal will bring an increase in radar returns, but time-height RH plots and model soundings show considerable amount of dry air between roughly 750 hPa and 900 hPa. Therefore, precipitation should struggle and this should result in mostly virga although can't rule out some sprinkles or possibly even a few light rain showers (10-20%) mid morning through mid afternoon. Temperatures are likely to fall immediately post-frontal, but then could level off or even rise a little before falling off again with a main surge of cold advection this afternoon and also assist of evaporational cooling and clouds. Suffice to say highs for the day for many are occurring early this morning. Despite the much cooler conditions, temperatures will be seasonable to mild and when combined with the dry conditions and gusty winds will support another day of elevated fire risk especially south of I-80. Quite a few hotspots were detected yesterday on satellite, and saw some reports of fire departments being busy having to respond. Please, hold off on any outdoor burning until tomorrow when winds will be much lighter.

High pressure will build in tonight and Monday bringing lighter winds and a continuation of much cooler and more seasonable conditions. Lows tonight under mainly clear to partly cloudy skies look to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Monday with increasing high cloudiness look to top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Another warming trend with above normal temperatures is anticipated Tuesday into Thursday, as a mid-level thermal ridge expands and builds into the region. 850 hPa temperatures warming to 14c to 20c by Thursday will support highs warming through the 60s with more 70s expected in the south half of the service area Wednesday into Thursday. Depending on the timing of the next front Thursday, some areas south could even see the 80s return. These warmer temperatures Tuesday into Thursday and the dry conditions could result in fire weather concerns, particularly if any days manage to bring gusty winds. The warm advection on Wednesday and cold frontal passage on Thursday could be accompanied by some rain chances, but there's plenty of uncertainty on the amount of moisture available thus these chances look low at this time (20-30%). In the wake of the cold front, temperatures will turn cooler and more seasonable (near to slightly below normal) late week into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

A cold front will continue to push across the terminals early on in the period. Winds turn northerly with the frontal passage and look to gust 20-30 kt today. There is a very low chance (10- 20%) for light showers, mainly east of the terminals but precipitation will struggle with considerable dry air sub-cloud and it may be mostly virga and some sprinkles with no impacts. There is the potential for some lower clouds with MVFR bases, but probabilities for ceilings <3kft agl remain at 20-30% per NBM and thus have continued with VFR conditions, although will continue to monitor upstream trends for any changes. KDBQ and KCID would be the sites to monitor for a transitory bout of MVFR ceilings later this morning into afternoon. Tonight, then NNE low level flow over Lake Michigan should keep the bulk of any stratus east of the terminals. Otherwise, winds should begin to slowly diminish late this afternoon through evening as the pressure gradient weakens.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.