textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than average temperatures will continue this week through the upcoming weekend, with the warmest conditions expected today and Tuesday before moderating slightly by mid- week.

- Dry conditions are expected through Wednesday night before becoming more active towards Thursday and afterwards. However, uncertainty remains for precipitation chances and impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 234 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The warm-up persists today and Tuesday, with high temperatures well above average for this time of the year. Zonal flow aloft, along with south to southwesterly flow from the surface up to 850 mb will lead to a strengthening thermal ridge over the region. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble 850 mb temperature values continue to indicate the warmest part of the thermal ridge to come later today around 00z/6 PM this evening, with 850 mb temperatures around 11 to 14 degrees C. These values would be above the daily maximum for DVN for 850 temperatures per the SPC sounding climatology. With that said, today should feel even warmer compared to yesterday, as highs warm to the lower 40s over northwest Illinois to the 50s over portions of southeastern Iowa into northeast Missouri. If you loved yesterday's warmer temperatures, you're going to love today! Southerly winds could be a little breezy this afternoon, with gusts to around 20 to 25 mph possible, so wind chills should be slightly cooler than air temps.

Temperatures will continue to be warmer than average tonight and Tuesday, even despite the passage of a frontal boundary expected to occur tonight, turning winds more northwesterly in its wake. A broad mid-level longwave trough is progged to build just north of the local area, but with dry air remaining settled, we're not expecting any precipitation to form along the frontal boundary or the mid- level trough. Instead, some cloud cover will be more likely to develop. The thermal ridge should weaken a bit for Tuesday, so we're not expecting highs to be quite as warm as today. For the forecast, we're leaning towards lows tonight in the lower 30s north to the middle 30s south, and highs Tuesday in the lower 40s north to near 50 along and south of Highway 34.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 234 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Temperatures will moderate slightly for the long-term forecast period, with the NBM suggesting high temperatures in the lower/middle 40s, and lows in the middle/upper 20s. Although not as warm as expected to be for today and Tuesday, these values are still above average for mid-February.

As for precipitation chances, the NBM appears to have latched on to a consistent signal, maintaining 20-50% chances of precipitation on Thursday, while keeping conditions dry through Wednesday. The culprit for Thursday's precip potential is a mid-level shortwave with an attendant wing of 850-700 mb layer warm air advection in the wake of an area of high pressure that is progged to move through the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. The thermal profile from various ensembles suggest a mixture of rain and snow is most likely, with a low chance (less than 20%) of a wintry mix. In terms of snowfall, the latest NBM exceedance probabilities of one inch of snow or more is only around 20-50% (highest along the Highway 20 corridor) on Thursday, with around 10-30% for two inches (again highest along Highway 20), so it appears likely for snow amounts to remain light. Depending on how warm it gets, some of the snow may melt on contact during the daylight hours, limiting impacts. Indeed, the probabilistic WSSI for minor impacts (think winter road impacts) is less than 20% for this snow. The NBM continues to maintain lower chances of precipitation (10-30%) through next weekend as differences in the latest models begin to amplify for Thursday night through the weekend, so confidence in the forecast remains low for this time frame.

Our more weather-savy followers may have seen a larger system possible for our region from both the 09.00z ECMWF and GEM global models for Saturday night into Sunday. Before anyone gets concerned about snow, the thermal profiles of both models appears to strongly suggest more rain than snow at this time. Even so, the GFS is indicating dry conditions at the same time, so confidence remains quite low in the forecast this far out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 456 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions continue throughout the TAF period. The main focus will be on winds, both at the surface and aloft, as a period of gusty southerly winds are expected this afternoon, gusting to around 20 knots for CID and DBQ. Then, this evening into tonight, a strong 40 to 50 knot WSW low-level jet is expected to develop aloft, leading to a period of low-level wind shear. Confidence is quite high for LLWS to develop tonight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.