textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Blustery and bitterly cold morning with subzero temperatures over much of the area and the lowest wind chills of the season so far (15 to 30 below zero); Cold Weather Advisory in effect.

- Snow Tuesday night, especially north of I-80, with light accumulations at cold enough temperatures to create slippery road conditions.

- Even colder temperatures, including some highs only around zero, becoming probable Friday and Saturday behind a reinforcing cold front on Thursday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A frigid start to this Martin Luther King Jr Day with strong (and loud) northwest winds last night having ushered in subzero temperatures and -15 to -30 wind chills (coldest north). As is common in these wintertime strong cold advection scenarios, the low temperatures are likely not to occur until 8 to 10 AM with then a slow climb after. Some morning wind chills along the U.S. Highway 20 corridor may dip to below -30F, but feel the Advisory headline captures this situation well. Wind gusts after daybreak should be more commonly peaking at 35 mph analyzing upstream VWP data and top of the mixed layer data on forecast soundings. These will slowly ease through the day and then more sharply late afternoon into evening. With 925 mb temperatures forecast to be around -25C today (bottom 5th percentile for January using our sounding climatology), highs should only rebound to 5 to 15 for much of the area. They would rebound far less than that if we had several inches or more of fresh snow cover!

Tonight will be 'milder' as high pressure ridging quickly moves over with a consistent signal of a mid-level cloud deck from a sheared, weak impulse. Would not be surprised to see some virga out of that deck. Otherwise, lows a smidge below zero in the north are expected with single digits above central and south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Zooming out big picture, the hemispheric satellite and analysis maps paint a clear picture of entrenched below normal temperatures for the region, with reinforcing cold shots. The long wave upper trough currently extends almost the width of the continent and as far equatorward as the Mid South. Last night's 00Z soundings had northerly flow from 850 mb upward from our sounding through northern Canada's soundings. What all this means is that this will be a tough pattern to shake in the next two weeks, if not longer, and the region is susceptible to colder air shots. The active zone of substantial precipitation- making systems of note will tend to be south of the area, however lower amplitude light snow makers, enough to cause problems with cold and winds, will traverse the Midwest. Timing of these and specific tracks are low confidence three plus days out.

Building on that last point, the next system of note is close enough in the forecast being Tuesday night to decipher some details. Trends in guidance have honed the system center track to be over our central CWA headed east-southeast. As is common with clippers in northwest flow aloft, the precipitation chances and its longer duration are better north of the system center track, so our northern CWA is most favored in this case. At least a sizable portion of the forcing for ascent depth is collocated with the dendritic growth zone (DGZ), and there also appears to be at least transient f-gen along the 850-700 mb temperature gradient which deterministic models have over/near the far northern CWA. This all indicates temporary moderate snowfall rates and potential scattered 2+ inch amounts near U.S. Highway 20 during Tuesday night. Given the timing currently looking to be 8 PM to 4 AM or so, that generally falls in a less impactful time, which is good news.

Beyond that, details in any clippers are more muddy, however the temperature details have become clearer (and colder!). First for precipitation, the trend over the last 48 hours has actually been less of a signal of clippers of note, or for any overrunning precipitation concerns (that has shifted well south). To express that, the NBM probabilities of >0.1 inch of liquid equivalent for a 24 hour period from Wednesday-Sunday are lower than 20 percent. Now for temperatures, as already noted the background pattern supports cold reinforcement and that is exactly what happens. A pronounced 500 mb low is forecast to carve into the trough with heights forecast 3-4 sigma below normal over central Canada into the northern Great Lakes (impressive for the coldest time of year). That will result in an arctic front sometime on or around Thursday night it appears. Tough to tell if it would come with as much wind fanfare as last night's arctic front, but right now it looks like it would not due to less baroclinicity. However, the cold air behind it will be more pronounced and an arctic high pressure of a stout 1040+ mb settles in nearby early in the weekend. With 850 mb temperatures forecast to be -25C to -30C (bottom few percentile for January), it is becoming more likely based on NBM probability trends that nighttime lows Friday and potentially Saturday nights will be in the negative double digits, and highs both days likely to struggle to get much above if even above zero, especially north where some snow cover should exist. On the snow cover note, some model membership in the NBM can struggle with that, and some modification of the arctic air is probable. But even if temperatures do not end up as cold as deterministically forecast now, the high confidence in well below normal temperatures at the coldest time of the year is a key message.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

The main concern with aviation is winds, with secondary concerns of blowing snow and MVFR ceilings.

Strong northwest winds area-wide will persist through daybreak before gradually easing during the day Monday. Occasional gusts of 40 kt will occur at eastern Iowa airports through 09Z or so. There is lingering snow shower activity that should fade by daybreak. Shallow blowing snow at rural airfields, especially those north of I-80, might linger after daybreak but with little inherent snow on the ground to be blown, visibilities have largely been MVFR where this has been occurring. MVFR ceilings associated with thin cold air stratocumulus will hold on through the morning before fading. These types of clouds in strong cold air like this tend to be so thin that they are almost translucent in the daytime. Winds will drop off sharply late Monday afternoon into the evening.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The signal has strengthened for the forecast area to remain mostly below freezing the next ten days, including a couple substantial cold bouts of subzero air -- the current one and late this week into the weekend. Ice has rapidly developed on some area rivers in the last 48 hours, including the Lower Rock River. More ice development and at an even quicker rate will be favored during the coldest stretches, and could support some freeze up jams especially in favored locations such as the Lower Rock. Streamflows are currently near the 50th percentile for January (i.e. near the long term normal). If they were higher, that would really raise concerns right now. Keep an eye out for more honed in messaging and Flood Warnings if we receive specific reports of developing impactful ice jams.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>066-076-077. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ067-068-078- 087>089-098-099. IL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ009-010.