textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will be seen this afternoon and evening as a cold front passes through. Gusts upwards to 25-35 mph will be possible, which may result in localized/brief visibility reductions due to blowing dust.

- Scattered showers and storms will pass through the area this afternoon/evening, where a few strong to severe storms will be possible.

- Below normal temperatures are expected Tuesday through the remainder of the week, gradually increasing at the end of the week, with low-end chances for light rain showers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This afternoon and evening, strong mixing will result in gusty winds throughout the area, with southwesterly winds ahead of the front and north-northwesterly behind. We will generally see gusts between 25-35 mph, but a few higher gusts cannot be ruled out. This will especially be true for areas along the approaching cold front and for a few hours after frontal passage into tonight. This may result in localized areas of blowing dust, as we have seen over the weekend. Although, it should be localized and result in brief visibility reductions if we do see some blowing field dust.

Broad upper trof over the Upper Great Lakes region will slowly sag south through the evening and night, with strong westerly flow set up along the southern edge of this. This westerly flow starts out towards the Rockies, which will help guide weak waves toward the area through the night and tomorrow. Although, this afternoon/evening we will see a cold front pass through the area, associated with the seasonally strong surface low north of the Great Lakes Region. Along this cold front, we will see isolated-scattered showers/storms develop and pass through the area from northwest to southeast. We can see showers/storms develop as early as 4PM north of I-80, but confidence on the start time is lower owing to plenty of dry air present. Coverage will gradually increase along the front between 4-6PM, with better chances/coverage for areas south of I-80, especially after 6PM. A few of these storms may be strong to severe later this afternoon and evening. A look into model soundings would favor wind being the primary threat, owing to plenty of dry air resulting from strong evaporative cooling, with hail being secondary. The better threat to see any hail will be south of I-80, generally along/south of Highway 34. CAM soundings indicate better instability (1500-2000 J/kg CAPE) and decent mid-level lapse rates for hail in those areas.

By around 10PM, we should see the strongest storms move out of our area, leaving us with post-frontal showers and storms through the remainder of the night. The nighttime activity should largely remain along/south of the Highway 34 corridor. Although, these will also be relatively scattered in nature. QPF for the event as a whole will remain low, with the whole area generally seeing <0.10-0.25". Residual cloud cover will help moderate temperatures in the upper 40s tonight, with much of the area remaining dry. As we go into Tuesday, we remain under influence of the large upper trof sitting over the north-central CONUS. With that, weak bouts of energy will continue to pass through the area, brining on/off showers and storms tomorrow for areas along/south of Highway 34. This will not be a washout, with QPF remaining low. Rather, a gloomy day with cooler air and cloudy skies will be seen. For the remainder of the area, we will see quite the change from the previous couple of days temperature-wise, with post-frontal airmass keeping us in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain light and out of the north, with mostly cloudy skies throughout.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Wednesday... A high pressure anchors well to the west, with a surface low north of the Great Lakes Region, advecting in cooler air from the north. Temperatures are forecasted to be 5-10 degrees below average for this time of year with highs in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows in the mid-30s to low 40s. Some clouds will stick around due to cyclonic flow aloft over the region.

Thursday... The longwave trough that has been lingering over the Northern Plains for the first half of the week will finally eject off to the east, pulling a shortwave southeastward with it. A 500 mb vorticity maximum is forecasted to pass across Iowa on Thursday providing some lift for light rain showers as winds shift from northerly to westerly. This will kick off a warming trend as highs climb into the mid-60s.

Friday-Sunday... Northwest flow aloft returns with the potential for a couple shortwave passages, similar to a clipper pattern. A weak front Friday could bring additional showers with southwesterly flow at the surface, bumping highs closer to 70. Saturday will be mostly dry before the ECMWF ensembles and GEFS hint at a mid-level frontogenesis band developing to our south across Missouri ahead of a surface low deepening over the south-central Plains. This could bring some stratiform rain into southern Iowa, but there is general uncertainty in the northern extent of this precipitation and amounts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

The sctrd line of thunderstorms are south of almost all the TAF sites except BRL and will have to use TEMPO through 9 PM at BRL for passing thunderstorms with gusty winds and at least small hail. Otherwise a cold front producing the storms will continue to sag southeastward through the area with sfc winds veering to the northwest and becoming gusty for 1-3 hours after FROPA before diminishing some by mid to late evening. We will also have a temporary cloud clear out through midnight, before a post- frontal mid deck slides back in from the west. Some light rain may try to spread in from the west late tonight and into Tuesday morning especially south of I-80 and mainly effecting the BRL site. Overall it may be mainly VFR late tonight and Tuesday, with the BRL site having the potential for flirting with MVFR VSBYs from rain Tue morning. Northwesterly sfc winds of 10-15 KTs re-establishing by Tue afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.