textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost possible again tonight, though likely more patchy and favored across south/east sections of the service area as well as any poor drainage areas.

- A warm-up next week will send temperatures back above normal for late October, with dry conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

It was a chilly start this morning with many areas in the lower to mid 30s. The coldest readings (just below freezing/32F) were found north of I-80 and especially north of Hwy 30 where frost was widespread. We are most likely done with frost/freeze headlines along/north of Hwy 30 given the sub-freezing temperatures and being a week past average date of first freeze, while headlines may continue elsewhere although we'll continue to evaluate and make an official determination by Monday. The dry air has warmed up nicely with the full sunshine and temperatures have recovered into the mid 50s at mid afternoon.

High pressure over eastern Illinois will continue to move off with southerly winds resulting in lows tonight being not quite as cold as this morning for many. Still, across our south/east portions of the service area and poor drainage locations elsewhere, the combination of dry air and lighter winds will be favorable for lows in the mid/upper 30s and patchy to perhaps some areas of frost. Meanwhile, across the western portions of the service area with the more prevalent surface pressure gradient and slightly stronger SSW flow lows look to be around 40. Going into Sunday a more substantial southwesterly pressure gradient sets up across our area ushering in warmer air with highs topping out largely in the mid 60s with a few upper 60s possible. SSW winds will be breezy at 15-30 mph. If dew points and RH trend lower then we can't rule out some fire weather concerns, particularly west of the Mississippi River in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Following warmer temperatures on Sunday, the week ahead looks pleasant, with above normal temperatures increasing through the week. High pressure will reign through Friday as the center of the high migrates from the central US to over the Great Lakes. Midlevel flow will remain southwesterly, providing WAA that will lead to above normal temperatures through the week. A few shortwaves are expected to move through and bring some cloud cover to the region, though dry low levels will keep us free from any precipitation through much of the week. Couple of things to watch for are 1) temperatures being a few degrees warmer than forecast during the day and cooler at night given the amount of dry air favorable for burgeoning diurnal ranges, and 2) potential for some fire weather concerns given the dry weather and warming temperatures during any windier periods. Right now though, it appears being more under the influence of the surface ridging that the stronger pressure gradient and winds will be favored to our west, until late week.

Beyond 7 days...

Recurving typhoons in western Pacific often portend a central/eastern CONUS trough in about 6-14 days (buckling of jet orientation over the north Pacific which can pump up the ridge into Alaska and the western CONUS in turning fostering an eastern trough), and probably closer to 14 days in this case with Typhoon Champi recurving further west towards China. Something to monitor for a pattern change to colder and potentially a period of unsettled/wet weather. Latest CPC 8-14 day outlooks Oct 24-30 lean above normal on precipitation and likely above normal temperatures though again toward the end of the period is when we may see the evolution toward more troughing and colder conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Consistently VFR weather will continue through 24 hours and beyond as high pressure slowly moves east of the region, but continues to bring dry conditions and mainly clear skies. Winds will be a bit gusty from mid morning through late afternoon Sunday, especially northwest of the Quad Cities, where south/southwest winds of 15 to 20 kts are possible, with gusts to 25 kts. Farther southeast, winds will be a bit weaker, with gusts around 20 kts expected around MLI and BRL.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.