textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A fast moving upper level disturbance will bring showers and some isolated storms to the area today. Winds in the convection may gust up to 40 mph. Localized higher gusts are possible.

- Another disturbance will move through the area on Friday bringing another round of showers and a few storms.

- Northwest flow will bring the potential for some rain late weekend and early next week. Temperatures will eventually trend above normal next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

The next upper level disturbance has entered northwest Iowa and will rotate through the area today. The disturbance is progged to become stronger as it moves through the area which adds confidence on isolated to scattered showers occurring. The position of the upper jet is also providing favorable lift for a few thunderstorms to occur.

The overall set up has similarities to last Monday. The BIG difference is that dew points are 10-15 degrees lower; low to mid 30s compared to mid and upper 40s. Severe storms are not likely but I cannot rule out a rogue severe storm occurring.

The very short term models differ slightly on the position of the overall forcing, but, the general area between Highway 30 and north of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line appears favored for the best rain chances.

Inverted V progged soundings show 40 knots of wind in the moist layer. Mix-down would then support gusts of 35-40 mph in the showers and any isolated storms. Some localized higher gusts are possible, especially if precipitation loading can occur in a downdraft.

Today will also be another windy day as relatively deep mixing of the atmosphere occurs. Overall gradient wind gusts of 30 mph are again possible.

Showers and any storms will quickly end late this afternoon/early evening the the disturbance moves into the Ohio Valley. The overnight hours will be quiet.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Friday Assessment...low (20-30%) confidence for some rain

Another upper level disturbance will move through the Midwest on Friday. Currently the various models do not show a very strong disturbance. However, it will be moving toward the longwave trof on the east coast so some strengthening is expected.

Overall, moisture for this disturbance will be roughly the same as the one on Thursday. Like Thursday, the progged soundings are an inverted V so mixing down winds aloft would not be a problem. Interestingly, several models have very light winds atop the mixed layer. If this is correct, then winds Friday may end up being not as strong.

Thus isolated to scattered showers will be seen from late morning through the afternoon with a few thunderstorms. As the disturbance exits the area late in the afternoon, the diurnal convection will quickly dissipate.

Friday night/Saturday Assessment...a certainty (>95%) of above normal temperatures.

Southerly flow that develops Friday night will continue into Saturday which will push temperatures above normal. Deep mixing of the atmosphere will result in windy conditions and drop humidity levels during the afternoon. The combination of wind, warm temperatures and humidity levels of 25-30% could result in problems for any outdoor burning.

Saturday night/Sunday Assessment...low to medium (20-40%) confidence on some rain occurring.

The models show a weak storm system moving through the Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. The trend on the track of this system has been to the south given the northwest flow aloft. The better forcing and thus rain chances are across Missouri, but, slight differences in the track of the system are yielding a 20-40% chance of rain across the south half of the area. The current suite of models have a couple of solutions with a northward jog in the track which is causing the rain chances across the south half.

Interestingly, the ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS are completely dry for Saturday night/Sunday. I suspect the northward jog with the track is an anomaly and subsequent model runs will shift the rain chances south over the next few days.

Sunday night/Monday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of cooler than normal temperatures

The model consensus has dry conditions for the start of the work week as another cool high moves through the Midwest.

Monday night through Wednesday Assessment...low to medium (25-50%) confidence on some rain

The global models have a weak but respectable system moving through the area Monday night into Tuesday. The spread on the track of the system is fairly large but the timing suggests the most likely time for any rain is late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The system will have a surface low to it which will help in the production of precipitation. However, the moisture it has is limited as there is no connection to the Gulf. Thus while there is a chance of rain, areas north of I-80 would have the better chances.

Right now the model consensus has a 30-50% chance for rain late Monday night into Tuesday morning with rain ending Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night into Wednesday will be dry with downward motion in the atmosphere behind the departing system. Rising heights in the atmosphere will help push temperatures sightly above normal in spite of the north winds.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers through early this evening with localized MVFR to IFR visibilities in the strongest showers - Isolated lightning, particularly near KMLI and possibly KBRL - Gusts 20-30 kt today with localized gusts to 45 kt possible in and near showers

Discussion:

A compact, vigorous upper level disturbance will generate scattered showers across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois through this evening (04z/08). The greatest concentration of showers may be roughly near Hwy 30 through I-80 to near Hwy 34. Inverted-V soundings will allow for mix down of gusts today in the range of 20-30 kt from a westerly direction. However, some of the hi-res forecast soundings suggest the potential to tap into 40-45 kt of wind with the strongest showers. There is also potential for storms after 18z with equilibrium levels above -20c to -25c supportive of some lightning, particularly near KMLI and possibly KBRL, but coverage looks to be isolated and have left out mention. Overall, predominantly VFR conditions are anticipated with pockets of MVFR/IFR (visibility) in the strongest showers and isolated storms. Winds look to diminish tonight to 10 kt or less and vary with a boundary draped south of I-80. This will favor eventually a northerly wind settling in at KDBQ and KCID, and more variable to east-southeast at KMLI and KBRL.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068. IL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018. MO...None.