textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for roughly the area along and north of an Iowa City to Mount Carroll line into Monday morning. Periods of snow and blowing snow, along with re-freeze of moisture on untreated roadways will lead to hazardous travel conditions tonight into Monday morning.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect area-wide for west to northwest winds gusting between 45 to 55 mph into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Latest surface analysis places a 995 mb surface low over northeast Illinois with a cold front extending southward from the low into central Illinois. Preceding the front is a strengthening QLCS E/SE of a KVYS (Peru, IL) to KSPI (Springfield, IL) carrying a damaging wind and brief tornado threat next few hours from eastern Illinois into Indiana. The front was just exiting our far eastern counties with strong isallobaric max and cold advection fostering strong northwest winds gusting 35 to 50+ mph, with temperatures plummeting through the 30s and 20s.

The first wave of precipitation attendant to a passing trough and low/mid level frontogenesis was shifting along the Mississippi River near/north of I-80 moving eastward. The back edge of this precipitation is starting to outrun the cold air, but still close enough to where a wintry mix is possible. Once this moves out soon there will be a little bit of a lull in the precipitation. However, a round of snow currently shifting through central Iowa will move across the region this evening in response to PVA ahead of the approaching upper low. This may bring light accumulations of snow to much of the area. Then, more periodic bouts of snow will rotate down across the area overnight, especially the north 1/3-1/2 of the service area on the backside of the intensifying system as it develops toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight, aided by a strengthening mid/upper level jet of 100-120+ kt. This will foster rapid significant deepening of the surface low below 980 mb tonight as it moves across Michigan.

The Winter Weather Advisory was expanded a tier of counties southward and now includes areas from Iowa City to Mount Carroll and northward through Monday morning. These areas are favored for accumulating snow over 1 inch within a potential tight north-south gradient that could see far northern areas near Hwy 20 with up to around 3 inches (probability for 2" or greater being >60%). Will add though the concerns for the strong winds and fracturing of the snowflakes, which could lower SLRs and impact amounts (lower) leading to uncertainty with the snowfall forecast. These areas will also be favored for bouts of potentially significant visibility reductions in the falling snow and blowing snow in areas >0.5 to 1 inch of snow on the ground, with icy untreated roads leading to hazardous travel conditions. We'll have to keep an eye on road conditions and observations for any need to expand or adjust the winter weather headlines. If we do see the higher amounts of near 2-3+ inches occur then with these strong winds couldn't rule out blizzard conditions for some of our northern counties. But again, uncertainty with amounts and concerns of these potentially being too high lend to confidence not being high enough to upgrade to a blizzard warning.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect areawide for winds that will gust 45 to 55 mph at times into Monday morning. Peak winds will likely be tonight, as the storm system deepens further. Will likely see some wind gusts exceed 58 mph as we tap even stronger winds aloft, just not confident at this time on how widespread these stronger winds will be. So will let the evening crew monitor obs and trends and upgrade if necessary.

These strong winds will combine with temperatures dropping into the single digits and teens tonight to produce bitter wind chills around zero to 15 below later tonight and Monday morning.

On Monday, any lingering light snow should quickly come to an end by mid morning. This may be followed by a decrease in clouds for the afternoon into evening as subsidence increases in the wake of the system. It will remain quite chilly though with highs only recovering into the teens and 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 325 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Northwest flow aloft is expected through much of the week as a deep upper trough sets up over the eastern U.S. and eastern Canada. This will result in seasonably cold temperatures and occasional chances for light snow. A weak clipper may bring some light snow to the area on New Year's Eve. Late in the period, models are showing a return to zonal flow aloft which may lead to moderating temperatures into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong west/northwest winds will continue to impact the TAF sites tonight into Monday morning before slowly beginning to diminish Monday afternoon. Winds will be sustained between 25-35 kt and gust 35-45kt with sporadic higher gusts of 50+ kt possible.

A round of snow will move through the terminals this evening with a period of LIFR to MVFR visibilities and a dusting to less than an inch of accumulation. This will be followed by periods of snow overnight rotating down largely impacting DBQ, but also potentially impacting CID and eventually MLI before diminishing after 12z Monday. Conditions in the snow will drop to MVFR to IFR, with potential for sporadic lower visibilities of LIFR/VLIFR at CID and especially DBQ in blowing snow should accumulations of more than an inch or two occur.

Conditions are expected to improve to MVFR and possibly VFR on Monday as the storm system departs.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>066. IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024>026-034-035. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for ILZ001-002- 007. MO...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for MOZ009-010.