textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A heightened risk (levels 3/4 of 5) for severe storms from mid-afternoon through mid-evening, especially east and southeast of the Quad Cities. Large hail greater than golf ball size is the hazard that is most probable, and tornadoes will materialize with any sustained supercells near the front. Stay weather aware and plan ahead.

- A transition to a localized damaging wind and flash flood risk with any repeated rounds of storms should happen later this evening into early overnight, mainly on the IL side.

- Turning colder and more seasonable by late week and into the weekend, with additional precipitation chances, some of which could be snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Observational trends and honing of the forecast in space, time, and magnitude will be the rule this afternoon into evening. The warm front, which will be the focus for potential sustained, surface-based supercells, is pronounced and stretches from just south of the Quad Cities eastward almost exactly along I-80. This has a 15 to 20 gradient along it. This front is basically stationary in Illinois on satellite imagery. The gustier south winds, which are often something we look for right up to a front for good tornado potential, are still a little ways south (approaching Peoria and and Macomb). Also in northern Missouri and in spots in central Illinois are billow patchwork clouds, indicative of high values of helicity in the lowest part of the atmosphere (i.e. spin potential).

These observational trends are concerning for tornadoes later today with sustained supercells that can ingest that moist, unstable air south of the front. In terms of significant tornadoes, this threat could be quite localized, and will depend on if supercell storms can stay latched on the front, or if the rain-cooled air each produces (RFD) is quite cold and shimmies the front a little south and individual updrafts cannot ingest that moist and unstable air for a long enough duration. That can happen if those gusty south winds are not right up to the front. Nonetheless, rotating storms are almost a given later today in/near this Moderate Risk, with large hail a noteworthy threat and a tornado threat with any supercells along the warm front or in that northern portion of the warm sector. Stay weather aware!

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Satellite shows the frontal boundary well with it running just south of I-80 before turning and going into southeast Iowa. A secondary lake induced boundary is moving southwest out the Chicago metro area.

Surface observations show an unstable boundary layer across Missouri into southern Illinois with observation sites showing gusts. Sustained winds are also 10-15 knots indicating respectable inflow for any developing storms. 18z DVN sounding has a very moist boundary layer but still a cap above it. Said cap is the key as HRRR trends are not consistent with storm initiation time.

Thus through mid-afternoon the potential is there for isolated to low end scattered showers to develop along the front until the arrival of the weak low.

That being said the HRRR has been very consistent in showing rapid storm development once the cap is overcome. Initial development would be discrete cells that rapidly grow upscale into multi-cellular lines.

Data indicates rapid storm movement of 40-45 knots to the northeast with hail/winds being the primary severe risks. If storms turn more to the east, they will slow down to about 30 knots with a more sheared inflow and thus being a tornado/hail risk.

The time frame between 4 and 10 PM still looks to be prime time for any severe storms. The area most at risk is along/south of I-80 and generally east of the Mississippi. All severe weather modes will be possible in this area.

North of I-80 and generally west of the Mississippi the severe risk is much lower. Storms would be elevated with hail being the primary risk. An exception would be in far southeast Iowa and far northeast Missouri right along the Mississippi where surface based storms would be possible, indicating a hail/damaging wind as the primary risks but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

After 10 PM a brief break in storm and rain activity looks to occur before the next surge of moisture comes up from the south. A broad swath of rain with some embedded thunderstorms looks to develop after midnight generally east of a Dubuque, IA to Ottumwa, IA line and continue through sunrise Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Quick look at longer range. Wednesday...a blustery raw day with gusty northwest wind and a cold post-frontal rain regime, possibly mixing or changing over to wet snow acrs the northwestern CWA before exiting out of the area Wed evening. Mid CONUS steering pattern change to northwest flow will look to usher down a clipper into the GRT LKS, possibly bring rain and snow to the area Thu night. Daily up and down temp trends through the weekend, and will have to watch for phasing trends of a stronger clipper that could translate into a more significant storm system Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Ongoing storms at 11.00Z TAF issuance have formed farther northwest than previously expected and therefore have included VCTS at KCID and KDBQ TAF sites. Otherwise, severe storms sitting between KBRL and KMLI, primarily moving east with low level winds, initially shifted north after initiation along the frontal boundary. Therefore, have included TSRA at KMLI while storms appear to be split around the 5SM and 10SM rings at TAF issuance.

Eventually the frontal boundary shifts stronger storms east through the forecast area through the overnight. Subsequent RA/SN mix possible through Wednesday morning primarily for the northern half of the forecast area.

CLIMATE

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record High Temperatures for March 10:

KBRL: 76 in 1955

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.