textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50% coverage) to the area late this afternoon into the evening hours. A few of these storms could be severe with the primary hazards being gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. - An active pattern keeps rain chances on the table through the middle of next week with plenty of dry hours in between, but muggy to oppressive humidity returns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A line of thunderstorms continues to develop across central Iowa early this afternoon. This line of storms is forecast to move south southeastward along a CAPE gradient across central and eastern Iowa this afternoon into this evening. There is a severe thunderstorm watch in effect through 10 PM for area along and west of a line from Manchester to Tipton to Wapello. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats. Storms are forecast to exit the area prior to 6 UTC.

Later tonight, patchy fog is possible overnight as winds becoming light with low abundant level moisture across the area. Low temperatures are expected to be in the 60s. A cold front is forecast to move across the area tonight and turn winds to the west.

Winds are forecast to turn the south on Saturday with increasing moisture during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the 80s across the area.

Another shortwave is forecast to move across the area Saturday and bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to the area mainly after midnight. Severe thunderstorms are possible overnight. There is a Marginal (level 1 out of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday along and west of the Mississippi River.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Sunday-Monday...As the two shortwaves quickly move to the southeast, the deformation zone remain in place Sunday, but PoPs should decrease to 30-50% with the lack of upper-level dynamical support. The low pressure over the Central Plains is also expected to stall out which will be an issue heading into Sunday night as another subtle shortwave zooms across Wyoming into South Dakota and Nebraska. A second LLJ is likely to develop, spawning another round of showers and storms Sunday night into Monday. This shortwave trough will also reinvigorate the deformation zone and pull it northward. The increased southwesterly flow, low-level WAA, and moisture advection could lead to excessive heat developing, especially in our south where clearing skies are more likely. Current LREF guidance has a 20-30% chance of heat indices exceeding 100 degrees south of Interstate 80 Monday afternoon. Regardless though, dew points are going to be in the 70s, possibly in the mid-to-upper 70s (40-60% chance per 06.12z LREF guidance), making it feel muggy to oppressive outside even with potential cloud cover.

Tuesday-Thursday...Multiple shortwaves passages will keep precipitation chances around through the middle of next week, but these repeated passages should slowly push the deformation zone further south as high pressure eventually settles back in over the region. There is general consensus among the ensembles that a return to north-to-northeasterly flow in the low-levels should erode away at the high dew points and temperatures, returning to the area to seasonable conditions by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A weakening line of storms is moving east southeastward and is exiting KCID and KDBQ at this time. This will slowly move into KMLI in the 1 to 2 UTC timeframe with MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible. A brief period of northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots, Conditions will improve to VFR behind the line of storms with ceiling between 4 and 10 kft. MVFR visibilities are possible as fog develops. This fog should dissipate by 14 UTC Saturday. After 12 UTC on Saturday, winds will turn to the northwest around 5 knots and then slowly turn to the south very late in the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.