textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe storms this afternoon and evening across most of the outlook area. The Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) has been shifted to the southeast of our area. All severe hazards remain possible with any scattered thunderstorms that redevelop this afternoon and evening.

- Cooler temperatures are forecast across the area Tuesday through Friday with slightly warmer temperatures next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

A large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms that worked through much of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois this morning has now shifted to the east into central/eastern Illinois. This has led to some stabilization across the area with current temperatures in the 60s to near 70 F. SPC mesoanalysis had a broad 998-1000mb surface low extending from southern Minnesota across central/eastern Iowa and into northwest Illinois. The low will track north of the area as it becomes more wound up, resulting in an increase in S/SW low- level flow through the afternoon. Thus increasing low- level warm air and moisture advection, combined with a period of clearing skies/solar insolation should provide a window for the atmosphere to recover.

Latest CAMs suggest potential to build SBCAPE to 1000-2000 J/kg with forecast soundings showing a rather narrow, skinny CAPE profile. Effective deep layer and 0-1 km low-level shear is still quite strong into the evening (60+ kts and 20-30 kts, respectively), so potential is there for a few sustained rotating storms. Overall though, it appears areal coverage will remain on the low side with an isolated to scattered scenario most likely. The southeast section of the outlook area may have the highest chance for a few severe storms (forming along a pre-frontal convergence zone), roughly from Hancock/McDonough Counties northeastward toward Bureau and Putnam Co. All severe hazards are possible with the strongest cells that develop through this evening. Surface winds are expected to veer to the southwest, leading to less low-level curvature which could limit overall tornado threat for most of the outlook area, with again an exception across the far east- central to southeast counties where winds are more southerly.

A cold front will move through early tonight ushering in a much cooler and drier air mass with lows expected in the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

In the wake of today's storm system, a broad trough will be carved across the eastern US with northwesterly flow resulting by midweek and continuing into the weekend. This will result in cooler temperatures through the week with a slight warming trend. There are numerous disturbances in this flow that will bring periods of clouds and potential for showers and isolated storms to the area, with timing of individual waves difficult to narrow down at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Gusty winds will be the main impact through the mid afternoon, initially out of the east/southeast before turning to the southwest. Early afternoon gusts may peak between 35-45 kts, then decrease to 20-30 kts for mid/late afternoon as winds turn more to the southwest. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may redevelop later this afternoon into this evening with low confidence on areal coverage -- have included PROB30s for thunder north of BRL for this period. A band of low clouds may bring periods of MVFR ceilings to CID and DBQ this afternoon; more widespread low clouds are possible this evening/tonight with MVFR possible at all terminals.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.