textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick shot of light snow will be seen into the morning commute. Accumulations will range from a dusting up to 1 inch.

- Snow showers will be seen this afternoon/evening with the most likely time period from 1 to 8 PM. There is a 30 percent probability of snow squalls that will have brief greatly reduced visibility and wind gusts up to 35 mph that would impact the evening commute.

- An active pattern will be seen through the weekend with clipper systems side-swiping at least the northern half of the area. Very cold conditions are expected Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The next quick shot of light snow will move through the area by 8 AM with areas along/north of I-80 being favored. Accumulations look to range from a dusting up to an inch.

From mid-morning through mid-day quiet conditions are expected with possibly some isolated flurries. The interesting time period will be afternoon through early evening with the snow showers.

Breaks in the sun will build up energy potential for the vort max to generate snow showers during the afternoon. What is not fully known yet will be the potential for snow squalls. The signal is there for strong snow showers that could turn into snow squalls; negative lapse rates along with a respectable theta e gradient. Interestingly, the 0-2 km winds briefly drop off to 20 knots but then increase to 30 knots. I would like to see stronger winds in the 0-2 km layer to increase confidence for snow squalls but the theta e gradient and negative theta e lapse rates may be enough to offset the lower winds. Right now the probability of snow squalls is around 30 percent.

The prime time period for snow showers looks to be 1 to 8 PM; snow squalls if they occur would be favored in the 3 to 7 pm time frame which would impact the evening commute. The snow showers that do occur this afternoon/evening will have brief visibility reductions to around a mile (possibly less) and winds gusting up to 35 mph. These conditions should last about 10 minutes at any one location.

After the snow showers dissipate this evening, cold advection combined with yet another upper level disturbance should be enough to allow isolated to scattered flurries to persist much of the night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Saturday through Monday Assessment...A certainty (>95%) of seeing wind chills below zero at night and during the morning. Low (<25%) confidence on snow chances.

The active northwest flow pattern continues through the weekend with either a clipper system or an upper level disturbance moving through every 12-18 hours. Model guidance is in reasonable agreement that areas generally north of Highway 30 will see some flurries or light snow during the day on Saturday. The remainder of the area looks to be dry and the entire area looks dry Saturday night.

Sunday has more uncertainty. The model consensus again has a 20-30 percent chance of seeing flurries or light snow north of Highway 30. However, the ECMWF, CMC, ICON and UKMET deterministic runs have a snow potential over more of the area. The ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS are also hinting at more areal coverage of snow on Sunday.

The mean of the ensembles from the EPS, GEPS and ICON-EPS suggest more areal coverage as well. The GEFS has a majority of its members showing dry or mainly dry conditions. Thus the model consensus right now is being biased to the drier GEFS. It usually takes several runs of the model consensus to catch on to a changing trend.

The more significant message Sunday into Monday will be the cold temperatures and sub-zero wind chills. Saturday night into Sunday morning looks to see wind chills of zero to 10 below. The larger concern is Sunday night into Monday where wind chills may exceed 20 below zero along/north of Highway 30 and 10 to 20 below south of highway 30. While a bit early this far out, the probability does exist for the need of cold weather headlines Sunday night into Monday morning. Right now the probability looks to be 30-40 percent.

Monday night through Thursday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on mainly dry conditions. High (60-80%) confidence on moderating temperatures

The model consensus has dry conditions through the period with moderating temperatures as the flow pattern aloft becomes more zonal. The trend on moderating temperatures looks good. However, there are questions regarding the dry conditions.

There is at least one weak disturbance progged to move through the area in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. However, the timing varies greatly among the deterministic models. A majority of the respective ensemble members are also dry so the weak signal for snow is being lost by the background error noise. So while the model consensus is dry, I cannot fully rule out a potential for light snow during the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame with the northern half of the area being favored.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

First round of -SN from the clipper system is moving across northern Illinois. Second round of -SN/SHSN is progged to move across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois through 17z/16 with a moderate probability (40-60%) of MVFR conditions. After 17z/16 gusty winds up to 26 knots will be seen. Although areal coverage will be 20-35 percent, SHSN are expected 19z/16 through 03z/17 that have a high probability (>80%) of brief IFR conditions.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.