textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with below normal temperatures this weekend.

- Warming after Monday with a few chances for precipitation around the mid-week timeframe.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Forecast is somewhat quiet through the weekend while staying cold.

GOES Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows stratus extending from western/southern WI into portions of northeast IA and northern IL, with the leading edge roughly near a Manchester to Sterling-Rock Falls line as of 07z. A satellite loop shows this expanding some while dropping nearly due south in line with KARX VWP data showing 20 kts of wind from the north in the cloud bearing layer ~500 m. Guidance is not really handling this cloud deck all that well which leads to lower confidence on the evolution. But, that's actually a bit of a moot point, as looking to our southwest early this morning reveals a large blanket of cloud cover approaching from KS, NE, western MO and southwest IA ahead of an upper level wave. Between both processes we should be looking at skies becoming mainly cloudy today. Soundings show that the stratus across northeast IA and northern IL is mostly just outside of the DGZ, but close enough to where a few stray flurries can't be totally ruled out early this morning. Otherwise, some fairly decent ascent attendant to the southern wave is progged to lift up across the area from northeast MO into northern IL roughly 12z-18z. Saturation is marginal in the DGZ and combined with dry sub-cloud layer will likely keep measurable snow probabilities <15%, but did add mention of flurries for areas mainly south of a Cedar Rapids to Savanna line through midday.

Progged 925 hPa temperatures of around -6c south to -10c north this afternoon mixed moist adiabatically to the surface, when accounting for the increase in clouds, would support highs generally from the lower 20s (favored over the deeper snow covered areas across the north/west service area) to around 30 or the lower 30s south.

Tonight, cloud cover is a bit of a challenge as we may see some decrease after the passage of the wave, but then an increase with strengthening cold advection/cyclonic flow. Due to the uncertainty I opted to side near 50th percentile of NBM, which is generally in the range of around 10 to 20 degrees. I also added flurries mention to parts of northeast IA and especially northwest IL late evening and overnight with sounding showing any stratus would extend into the DGZ with also potential for a brushing of rather weak ascent with an upper trough passing through the Great Lakes.

A tightening pressure gradient a southern Great Lakes low and Northern Plains high will foster brisk/blustery winds with gusts 20-30 mph tonight. This will drive wind chills down to around zero to 10 below, so you'll want to make sure you are bundled up if heading out later tonight and Sunday morning.

Sunday will remain rather brisk/blustery with gusts up to around 35 mph. Temperatures won't recover all that much and the magnitude of the recovery will depend on cloud cover. Currently it looks like more in the way of cloudiness or partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies with the continued cyclonic flow/cold advection. As a result, I tweaked highs down closer to NBM25th percentile with teens to mid 20s in general, which is well below normal by around 15-20 degrees.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Sunday night we're expecting a decrease in cloud cover as high pressure builds in. This will set the stage for a rather cold night with lows in the single digits and teens, and chills in the single digits and lower teens below zero overnight into Monday morning.

Monday through Thursday, the latest ensembles and deterministic guidance show less amplitude with the mid-week steering flow throughout the central CONUS, but still some northwest tilt that may allow for a couple of clipper type lows to ripple southeastward from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes along a low level baroclinic zone for some precipitation chances Tuesday night and again Wednesday night through Thursday. Current indications suggest the bulk of the lift and better saturation along and on the cold side of the system will favor best precipitation potential sliding from MN to WI and MI, but we could see some spotty light precipitation of which could be a mix particularly at night. There still looks to be some thickness increase for surface temperature moderation into mid-week, with 40s and even some 50s having a chance to occur.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions (ceilings) expected through the period.

MVFR stratus and 1500-2500 ft agl ceilings will likely impact KDBQ and KMLI this morning. KDBQ has temporarily improved to VFR at the start, but more MVFR stratus and ceilings are lurking upstream into far NE Iowa and W Wisconsin and northerly winds in the stratus bearing layer will likely advect these back into KDBQ and/or further develop in cyclonic flow and surface heating. MVFR stratus and ceilings are approaching KMLI at the start of the period, and the northerly flow just off the deck will bring it into KMLI this morning. Guidance overall is not handling these low clouds well and so lower confidence exists on evolution/improvement to VFR but feeling with mixing into drier air aloft these should scatter out later this morning and early afternoon. There is a chance that these MVFR ceilings get to KBRL, but confidence is low with sunrise and mixing of drier air though will monitor for any changes. A few flurries are also possible today, but not expecting any impacts and thus have left out mention. Winds for much of today are likely to increase to 10-15 kt from NW with occasional gusts near 20 kt possible. As the pressure gradient increases tonight the N/NW gusts should become more prevalent and increase to 20-30 kt. Later tonight, mainly after 03-06z, with more robust cold advection there is a signal for more stratus and MVFR ceilings developing and/or propagating down into the region. Have added mention at KDBQ for now where the confidence is 50-60% in SREF for ceilings <3kft agl. Can't rule out lower MVFR ceilings at KCID, KMLI and KBRL, but too low of confidence and with it being late in the period precludes any mention.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.