textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread rain showers will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder in the south. No severe storms are expected.

- A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts over 40 mph are possible.

- Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 34 are now 40-60 percent.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The storms system in the Midwest, at least through Noon, has been noted by both areas of significant rainfall, and by locations where rains have been very light and showery. Our CWA is on the lighter end of that scale, largely due to dry mid level air, which is quickly filling in early this afternoon. Low pressure has been elongated from Oklahoma through northeast Iowa, resulting in a a challenging placement of the rain showers, despite rather moist low levels and warm advection over a broad area. Those moist low levels, have created extensive low cloud cover, as well a poor visibilities in our region, and that has helped keep the warm sector from working northward, and with that, the strong thunderstorm chances today, are going to be south of our CWA, into central MO, and southern IL. I have added fog to our forecast grids in the hours of the low passing by this afternoon. This could result in a SPS being issued for low visibility.

Light to moderate showers will continue to fill in and stream northeast over the CWA this afternoon and early evening, as low pressure intensifies from the "double barreled" low in it's current state, to one surface low over northern Illinois, while the strong high pressure heads southeast creating a very tight pressure gradient in cold advection over our area from this evening through Friday afternoon. The strongest winds aloft, at the top of the CWA mixed layer are forecast from 06z through 15Z Friday, with some models showing 40 kts about 3kft aloft. At a typical 80% surface verification of the top of the mixed layer, we should expect most winds gusts tonight in the 30 to 40 mph range, with a few isolated gusts up to 45 mph possible at it's peak. I think the best way forward is to keep the forecast below advisory levels, while also supporting messaging on the northwest wind as a hazard tonight.

Following a blustery, windy Friday, largely under clouds and spotty showers, the next question is whether we freeze or frost Friday night. Clouds are expected to thin out during the evening, and if winds can decrease under 5 mph, we could see some near 32 degree temperatures in the north half, however, that possibility remains around 50-60%, outside of the Highway 20 corridor, with most spots seeing values more typical for a Frost Advisory. At this stage of the game, offices are collaborating Freeze Watches which may be converted to freeze warnings or frost advisories. Our office will be going with a Freeze Watch for areas northwest of Keokuk County through Carroll County.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The cool Canadian high pressure will be moving to the south and east of the region starting Sunday. This large synoptic movement will bring in a prolonged period of south to southwest winds to the region, and with that, temperatures rising back above normal through most of the week ahead.

This rather high confidence warmer than normal has been supported by CPC outlooks for several days, and might appear to some as another wave of heat, but in this case, we're looking at pleasant weather, with highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s and 50s.

Any cloud cover or precipitation chances remain silent in the week ahead, as an upper ridge builds aloft mid week. Once that pattern breaks down, which may not be until the weekend or beyond, dry weather should be the dominant feature of the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A broad storm system will tighten to a low pressure over northeast Illinois by this evening. This will occur, while a strong high pressure builds southeast into the Plains. The result will be widespread IFR to MVFR conditions in low cigs between 400 and 1000 ft, and visibility variable 1 to 5 miles in rain and fog this afternoon and early evening. As the low moves to northeast Illinois around 00z, winds will switch to northwest and greatly increase to sustained 15 to 20 kts, gusting to 30 to 35 kts, lasting through Friday morning. These cold, stronger winds will be accompanied by mainly MVFR cigs, and possibly some light showers at times. Towards the end of the period, dry air arriving into the region should begin to break up the cloud cover, or at least allow cigs to lift above MVFR levels.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076. IL...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for ILZ001-002-007. MO...None.