textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- More clouds than sun with spotty light precipitation chances into the weekend. There remains the chance for a larger and much wetter system toward the middle of next week.

- Temperatures will continue the cooler than normal trend into the weekend, but then moderate back to seasonable or even slightly above normal levels next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

LLVL easterly flow under a H85-H75 MB inversion will continue to try and advect portions of a substantial stratocu deck(associated with an upper low portion of a GRT LKS/OH RVR Valley Rex Block) out of IL and IN acrs the local area for much of the day. But that low is supposed to roll southeast allowing for more ridging bulging this way from the west. Would think this would allow for some cloud breaks today, but again CU Rule parameters are supportive of diurnal CU forming to broken coverage levels. With a trapping inversion in mind, it appears that all in all another mostly cloudy day. Similar high temps as yesterday with values ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. Persistent east to northeasterly sfc wind of 8-15 MPH. Will keep the forecast dry for today although there cold be some spits/spotty sprinkles at times especially on the IL side.

Tonight...short wave upper trof currently noted on water vapor imagery acrs the western Dakotas, will look to ridge-ride and then dig down acrs the upper MS RVR Valley and GRT LKS through early Friday morning. This feature will try to bring in some light showers in from the northwest, but also be battling dry air especially in the sub-H5 MB layer to saturate and try to get some precip arrival at the sfc. But fcst soundings and lowering Cond P-defs do show that some light rain to eventually materialize into Friday morning especially on the IA/MO side of things...most areas that get measurable rain to receive a tenth of an inch or less by early Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Friday...Back to the discussion above, will probably have some light showers in portions of the area Friday morning into early afternoon, before the wave weakens and drops south allowing omega block to re-erect up the mid and upper MS RVR Valley for a precip lull probably into early Sat morning. Similar temp regime to end the week with highs in the 60s to near 70 and lows generally in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday...The latest trends on the medium range ensembles suggest another short wave trof with a little more punch and moisture feed from the south will have a better chance of spreading showers acrs the area Saturday and into Saturday night, possibly lingering into Sunday morning. Some light to moderate rainfall amounts possible in spots this weekend, with clouds and the precip keeping high temps mainly in the 60s with overnight lows in the 50s.

The next main chance for rain continues to center around Tuesday/Wednesday of next week. During this time frame the models are showing a strong tropical connection to the systems in the eastern Pacific up into the Midwest. The model consensus already has a medium to high (50-70%) probability of rain occurring during this time frame. PWATS of 1.5 to 2 inches are being progged by the global models indicating a high (>80%) probability of heavy rain occurring. This in thanks to a longer range indication that high PWATs will look to reload again next week for that system. This signal would be consistent the with MJO vacillating between phases 8 and 1 which correlates to above normal precipitation for the area. But there is some variance between the solutions between a large progressive longer wave trof sweeping acrs the mid CONUS, or a slower cut-off low with multiple rounds of rains mid to late week which would be the more troublesome scenario for flooding if it can occur along the Lat/Lon of the local CWA. Much will change in the modeling, but a window to watch for next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

LLVL easterly flow in a blocked weather pattern will continue to advect a substantial stratocu deck in from the east overnight and into Thursday. Most of this deck held under a H85-H75 MB inversion and should be mainly at VFR levels, but there may be base lowering at times below 3K FT AGL especially south of I-80 through early Thu afternoon. Sfc winds remain a constant generally east to northeast at 7-12 KTs through the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.