textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few strong to severe storms tonight, with lightning and hail being the primary threats.

- Widespread rainfall is expected Wednesday night through Thursday. The threat for severe weather and flash flooding is low at this time.

- Seasonally strong cold front to come through late this week, bringing windy conditions and cool nights. There will be the chance for frost as we head into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Surface front that brought showers/storms to parts of the area this morning has stalled out over our south. This will continue to slowly track south of the area this evening and through tonight. In the upper levels, we will continue to see the weak upper ridge pass east of the area, inducing southwesterly flow into the area tonight. Weak bouts of energy will pass overhead, with a 25-30 KT LLJ pumping into the area, providing the necessary forcing for showers/storms. Best chances will be along and south of the Interstate 80 corridor (60-80%), but 20-40% PoPs will remain towards to the Highway 30 corridor and lower chances north. Timing for this will be after sunset, lasting until the morning commute, especially for the Highway 34 corridor and areas south. A look at model soundings would indicate an environment favorable for some storm organization this evening and into tonight, with deep layer shear around 40-50 KTs and CAPE upwards to 1000-1500 J/kg. Although, confidence is lower on the overall severe threat and coverage. Compared to recent model runs, coverage and storm chances have trended down and south in our area, owing to the stalled/slow- moving boundary pushing south of the area. Overall, the threat for strong/severe storms remains lower, with SPC highlighting much of our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather. Better chances to see an isolated strong/severe storm will be south of Interstate 80. The main threat with any strong/severe storms will be hail and frequent lightning. Rainfall amounts will largely be <0.50" for most, with some isolated pockets >0.50" possible.

After the Wednesday morning commute, much of this activity will be out of our area. There will be a 20-30% chance for any remaining showers and isolated storms prior to noon for areas along/south of Highway 34. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will remain with dry conditions and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Wednesday night through Monday Assessment...a certainty (>98%) of much cooler conditions for the first part of the weekend. Probability of frost Friday night remains around 60-70%.

The next round of rain with embedded thunderstorms will occur Wednesday night into Thursday evening. A tropical connection with the Gulf and moisture coming off of Simon will increase PWATs into the 1.5 to 2 inch range. These PWAT values have the potential of meeting or exceeding the climatological max for October 15th. Thus heavier and efficient rainfall will be possible. The areas currently favored for heavier rainfall are south of I-80, where better moisture and forcing can be found. Overall rainfall accumulation should largely remain <1.00", with ensemble guidance highlighting areas south of Interstate 80 in a 30-50% chance of seeing an inch or more of rainfall.

Windy conditions will be seen late Thursday night and Friday behind the cold front. Winds atop of the mixed layer are 30-35 knots, which would give wind gusts to at least 35 mph on Friday. We will continue to watch this for potential headlines. The strongest winds will be seen overnight Thursday through Friday AM, with gradual decreases in speeds through the afternoon.

Cold Canadian high pressure will settle over the area Friday night bringing light winds and very chilly temperatures. Given the negative delta on temperatures, the probability of frost has increased to 60-70 percent. Headlines for frost are possible later in the week.

A gradual warm-up commences late this weekend into early next week with temperatures trending to and then above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Occasional rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms are possible overnight into early Wed. AM, mainly south of DBQ and CID. Confidence remains low on the areal coverage of rain but do expect some showers/isolated storm activity near BRL and MLI overnight. Then heading into early Wednesday morning MVFR ceilings are probable at MLI and BRL, developing on the cool side of a surface front that will be draped across Missouri into southern Illinois.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.