textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably cool temperatures will continue this weekend before warming up through mid-week this week.

- Temperatures falling to the upper 20s to lower 30s tonight into Monday morning will bring widespread frost/freeze conditions over the area, and a Freeze Warning is now in effect over nearly the entire outlook area.

- Area rivers remain on the rise from recent heavy rainfall. Refer to the hydro section below for more details.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today and tonight as an upper-level longwave trough continues to translate eastward over the western Great Lakes. One particular lobe of positive vorticity advection is progged to sweep across our northeastern CWA after sunrise this morning, bringing low chances (20-40%) of light precipitation along Highway 20. Soundings show a brief period of moistening within the boundary layer, even up to the dendritic growth zone, which should allow some snow to mix in with any rain that develops. While some folks could see some of the white stuff, near-surface temperatures should be above freezing during that time, so impacts to travel are slim to none. In the wake of the precipitation, low-level lapse rates are expected to steepen, which should enhanced momentum transport to the surface and make for another breezy day today. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph should keep conditions feeling cool once again. Highs are forecast to warm to the upper 40s along Highway 20 to the upper 50s along and south of Highway 34.

Attention then turns to tonight, when widespread freezing conditions are expected. A ~1030 mb high pressure is progged to dive southward from Canada tonight into Monday morning and settle across the Midwest, leading to lightening winds and clearing skies. These conditions should be ideal for temperatures to plummet to near or below the freezing mark. The latest NBM and HREF ensembles still show impressively high exceedance probabilities of freezing temperatures tonight, with values of 80-100% along and north of Highway 34 from Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL. With this said, we have issued a Freeze Warning (our first of the growing season) across eastern Iowa into northwest/west-central Illinois with temperatures expected to fall to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Scotland and Clark counties in northeast Missouri are the only two counties in a Frost Advisory as there are a bit more questions for a hard freeze there, but lows in the lower/middle 30s should still support some frosty conditions there.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The quiet weather pattern looks to continue through at least mid- week this week, with large upper-level ridging progged to build over the Intermountain West region. Ensembles and deterministic global models suggest at least a small chance (20% or less) of showers/isolated storms late Tuesday as a warm front builds across the area. However, this chance of precipitation appears pretty fleeting, so not much impact expected from this. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm up Monday through Wednesday, increasing to the middle to upper 70s by Wednesday.

Farther out in time, the weather pattern appears to become more active by Thursday and Friday as a longwave upper trough develops over the western CONUS and approaches the area. There is a signal for widespread showers and thunderstorms along a surface cold front that's progged to sweep through the area sometime late Thursday into early Friday. However, exact timing of the front and coverage of showers/storms remains uncertain. While it's a ways out, there is at least a signal for this period to bring our next chance of strong to severe storms, so something to keep an eye on as we approach the end of the work week. SPC's latest update for the Days 4-8 severe outlooks shows an expansion of the Day 5 15% severe probabilities northward towards south-central Iowa, but just barely outside of our forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through much of the period. A shortwave currently over western MN will drop southeast leading to an increase in clouds through late morning. There remains a low chance (20-30%) of light precipitation at DBQ, with a cold enough thermal profile to support some rain-snow showers. No vsby reductions are anticipated, but a brief MVFR cig is possible and have added a TEMPO group for this occurrence. In addition, deep mixing this afternoon will result in occasional gusts over 20 kts this afternoon. These winds will quickly subside around sunset, with clouds also diminishing from west to east becoming clear this evening/overnight.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Area rivers continue to rise, especially in the Mississippi, Wapsipinicon, Iowa, Rock, and Cedar river basins. Several spots have already reached minor flood stage, with several forecast to go to moderate flood, especially on the Rock and the mainstem Mississippi downstream of Rock Island LD 15. Additional rainfall should remain limited over the next several days, but any additional rain may exacerbate these river flooding conditions.

Many area rivers are forecast to continue rising over the next several days, so make sure to be aware of impacts from the flooding, including water on roadways or affected local infrastructure and buildings. Motorists should obey barricades and not drive around them. Also, if you encounter a flooded roadway, turn around and find another route to your destination.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010.