textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant warm afternoons and cool mornings will continue into next week, with chances for rain remaining low and confined to western counties for the most part.

- Drought conditions continuing to develop and persisting through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Today's surface map and satellite/radar look just about identical to yesterday afternoon. High clouds continue to drift over our CWA while low level easterly flow brings in a steady stream of dry air. The cool morning temperature in the upper 40s to mid 50s has warmed to the lower 80s as of 1 PM. Meanwhile, west of the upper high over our area, is a plume of moisture streaming through the Missouri River valley. Widespread showers and some thunderstorms, are found in that area. For our CWA, clouds and some virga are being seen, with otherwise pleasant sensible weather outdoors.

Models are now offering less confidence on the Sun/Mon time frame regarding the upper high position, and any precipitation chance. Some models have shifted east with the upper high, allowing the moisture plume to spread over our western 1/2 of the CWA along with showers and thunderstorms, while many other deterministic do not move this upper high, and keep our CWA essentially dry through most of the week ahead.

This has model spread has resulted in chance pops spreading east into our western counties, especially Saturday night, Sunday night and Monday, as the NBM blend incorporates some of that data. I have trimmed the pops west initially, given the easterly flow holding instability very low, but later periods of Sunday and beyond are not touched. QPF remains very low in the forecast through Monday, with amounts generally under 0.10 in any 12 hour period in the west, and a trace to 0.01 farther east.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance continues the show the Omega block remaining through Tuesday next week becoming more northwest to southeast oriented across the CONUS. Beyond this, the MT/southern Saskatchewan upper low to progress eastward transitioning the pattern to semi-zonal over the northern CONUS. While there are varying solutions of just how many waves (00z deterministic GFS has several), this pattern should bring rain chances back, albeit not likely beneficial rain. Primary storm track and higher chances for rain mid to late week will be across the upper Midwest in MN/WI. Latest NBM Total QPF amounts (through 12z Fri 6/5) are quite concerning with areas south of a line from Pella to Mt Pleasant line only receiving 0.10" or less rainfall with lesser amounts north of this line. As a result, the recently released D0 (abnormally dry) drought conditions over Iowa and Illinois will likely expand/worsen in the coming weeks.

Looking beyond Friday, another building upper ridge will move into the Midwest next weekend bringing the potential for extreme heat to the upper Midwest. CPC Day 8-14 Hazard Outlook has a Moderate Risk (40-60%) for extreme heat June 6th-8th along and north of I-80. The latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day temperature outlooks have 85-90% combined probabilities of near/above normal temperatures in the June 5th-11th timeframe. Humidity levels will be on the rise as well with NBM Td probs >60 degrees in the 60-80% range Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Confidently VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light easterly winds through the day around 5-10 KTs. Aside from some passing mid-high clouds, no sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.