textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms still possible through this evening with a chance for strong/severe storms mainly in Illinois.

- Snow on the backside of the passing low pressure system looking more ramped up and have expanded and upgraded the ongoing winter headlines.

- Strong west to northwest winds are expected late tonight through Friday morning, gusting to 45 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for portions of west-central and northwestern Illinois as well as far eastern Iowa.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Thunderstorms...994 MB sfc low just east-southeast of the Kansas City area, will look to propagate towards the Milwaukee WI area by Friday morning deepening to sub 990 MB levels along the way. Latest CAM and current mesoanalysis(such as sfc DPTs) suggest prime parameters for severe storms this evening especially sfc based, will continue to be just off to the east and southeast of the DVN CWA. But strong storm layer shear as the LLVL low arrives along with some elevated CAPEs of 100-200 J/kg and mid level lapse rates near 7 C/km still support some elevated storms or even a few supercells capable of hail especially on the IL side through 9 PM. Some elevated TROWAL moisture feed may allow for a few swaths of rainfall of up to a quarter inch. But taking into account DEF zone precip combined with precursor showers/storms, there could be a swath of a half inch to three quarters of an inch by Friday morning acrs the northern the northwestern half of the DVN CWA.

Snow...Looking at moderate to strong upward omegas combined with adequate layer RH and in-wrapping cold conveyor, the snow potentail on the back side of this system continues to go up and be south enough to impact the northwest third to half of the DVN CWA from mid evening and especially after midnight into early Friday morning. Several of the latest CAM runs as well as deterministics are still varying quite a bit on the placement of where the relatively narrow band of heavier snow will fall, as well as amount potential. But taking into account a type of ensemble F-gen forcing swath to the left of the H85-H7 MB low path, it looks like a DSM to central WI axis looks on target for now. This is where a swath of 6 to 8 inches of snow may lay out, including the northwestern corner of the DVN CWA. Some solutions are even embedding a few pockets of 10 inches or more in this swath along the stretch.

There may be a transition of a half hour of sleet from rain to snow to as the change over occurs from west-to-east after 9 PM taking a bit away from snow totals, as well as initial mild sfc temps, but some good accumulations will still occur thanks to rates of over an inch an hour from midnight into the early morning hours, especially in northeast IA. Have upgraded the Winter Wx Advisory to a warning for 4 of our northwest counties/Hwy 20 DBQ and west/ of concern for the potential of 4-8+ inches and strong gusty late night winds acrs portions of the counties. Have also expanded the Advisory south and east a bit for 1-4 inches and the strong winds/reduced visibility creeping into the Friday AM commute time. Drifting and winds in falling snow a concern. Areas along and south of I-80 generally less than an inch or nothing as you get to the far southern CWA. Have also adjusted the start and end times back a few hours with the latest timing thoughts and lingering wind/drifting and falling snow Friday morning through 9 AM.

Winds...While wind will ramp up 25-30 KTs acrs much of the area until the low center arrival produces a temporary lull, the first strong surge will occur on the southeastern flank from northeast MO into northeastern IL from midnight through friday morning. These areas could be wind advisory levels with gusts to 45+ MPH and may scrape the southeast and eastern CWA late tonight. For now with everything going on will hold off of any wind headlines for the IL side for now, but it may be needed if even at short notice. The rest of the CWA including the winter headline areas will have gusts of 35 to 40 MPH which will compound in the snowfall areas adding punch for the need of the headlines especially in marginal snowfall areas of 1- 3 inches.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 258 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable/cooler conditions look still to be on track for the weekend and early next week. Then a warming but low amplitude ridge looks to arrive and bring mild temps with it by mid next week with values into the 40s and maybe 50s. Some potential for a mid to late week system for the next precip chance, but it doesn't look significant at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Active conditions are expected to continue through Friday morning as a potent low pressure system passes through the area over the next several hours. This evening, rain showers will be possible, with MVFR ceilings and visibilities developing as low- level moisture increases. Then, after midnight tonight, the surface low will lift northeastward, leading to strengthening west to northwest winds, gusting in excess of 30 knots for a time across the area. Colder air will also filter in on the western side of the system, leading to a transition to a rain/snow mix, eventually to all snow in its wake. A period of moderate snow is possible for CID and DBQ where visibilities to around 1 SM or less will be possible for a time overnight. Eventually, snow will come to an end after sunrise Friday morning, with improving conditions late morning into the afternoon hours.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for IAZ040>042-051. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for IAZ052>054- 063>065. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Friday for IAZ054-066-068. IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for ILZ001. Wind Advisory from 6 AM to noon CST Friday for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Friday for ILZ016>018-024-026-035. MO...None.