textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Challenging forecast continues through Friday night with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Friday night.

- There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday night. There are two rounds possible; One on Friday morning and a second Friday night.

- Near record high temperatures possible on Friday. Above normal temperatures continue into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 112 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Currently, an MCS is passing well to our south across the Interstate 70 corridor with trailing precipitation moving into Hancock and McDonough Counties. A rumble of thunder is possible this afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be light with some mist or drizzle to the west in far northeast Missouri and southeast Iowa. Confidence is low on precipitation to the west of the MCS reaching the ground, with drier air on east to northeast winds across the area.

In the near term, water vapor shows a strong shortwave trough at 500 mb moving into the central Plains. The model consensus has this neutrally tilted shortwave moving across the area tonight with the best lift arriving by midnight and continuing overnight as a weak low level jet develops. Showers and a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but have still lowered chances slightly due to lower coverage on the CAMs overnight.

In the wake of the morning convection, shortwave ridging is forecast to build back into the area and bring quiet weather during the day on Thursday. Like this morning, patchy dense fog is possible through the mid morning hours especially if rain is light overnight. High temperatures on Thursday will be noticeably warmer and range from the lower 50s along the Highway 20 corridor to lower 60s in Scotland County MO and Van Buren County IA.

Late Thursday into Friday, the flow aloft will become more amplified as a deeper trough moves into the Intermountain West with a stronger shortwave ejecting northeastward into Nebraska and Kansas by 00 UTC Saturday. Shortwave energy ahead of this wave is forecast to bring increasing chances of showers and storms late Thursday night into Friday morning. A stronger low level jet Friday morning may lead to greater shower and thunderstorm coverage than tonight. The best window for showers and storms is 4 AM to 10 AM Friday. Hail will be the main concern with any of these storms with elevated CAPE across the area.

Confidence in precipitation timing is lower for the second round of storms late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning across the area with differences in the location of the warm front Friday as well as the timing of the cold front and best lift Friday night with it being possibly as late as Saturday morning. The cold front will be nearly parallel to the the winds aloft allowing for a slower frontal evolution. This will cause warm temperatures and higher dewpoints to linger across the area Friday night with temperatures in the 60s as late as midnight or 06 UTC.

A potentially slower cold front will offset the storms from the better thermodynamics with model forecasts showing 500 J/KG of MUCAPE. Deep layer shear is strong at 60 to 70 knots Friday night as the better kinematics overspread the area. However the shear vector will be oriented along the front meaning that storms will tend to stay closer to the front and lift along it. CAPE profiles in the NAM and GFS are tall and skinny meaning that damaging winds will be the main threat as a QLCS moves across the area. The 0 to 3 KM shear vector is also oriented parallel to the front so mesovortex and tornado potential will depend on any storms that accelerate toward the northeast. Even if thermodynamics are weak, the synoptic environment will still result in winds near severe limits with winds near 60 knots just above 850 mb.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 112 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

This Weekend-Early Next Week...strong northwest winds behind frontal passage will start the period with decreasing clouds. A beautiful stretch of weather is forecast this weekend with dry conditions and comfortable humidity. Timing of the frontal passage friday night into Saturday will cause high temperatures on Saturday to occur early in the day with temperatures during the day ranging from the upper 40s in east central Iowa to the mid 40s in west central Illinois. Highs in the upper 50s and low 60s is forecast Sun, with even warmer temperatures back closer to 70 degrees on Monday! The roller coaster temperatures continue.

Split flow is forecast to develop across the CONUS by midweek as a trough is forecast to dig from southern Canada into the Upper Midwest and bring chances of precipitation to the area by the end of the period with temperatures dropping into the 40s by midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Trapping inversion has a high (>70%) probability of keeping CIGS AOB 1 kft AGL with pockets of MVFR/IFR through 18z/05. VSBYS will slowly improve to IFR/MVFR with pockets of VFR. After 06z/05 isolated to scattered SHRA will develop across northeast Missouri and spread into southeast Iowa and west central Illinois. Cannot fully rule out an isolated TSRA but based on instability, the probability of a TSRA looks to be 10% at best.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1222 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Record High Temperatures:

March 6: KBRL: 73 in 1910 KCID: 73 in 2005 KDBQ: 69 in 2000 KMLI: 73 in 2005

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.