textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant Memorial Day, with dry conditions and highs in the 80s.

- Rain chances decreasing further mid-week, with most areas remaining dry through at least Thursday.

- Above normal temperatures likely for the rest of May, with highs in the 80s each day.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Early morning satellite imagery and radar mosaics showed the remnants of severe thunderstorms that occurred over southeast SD last evening, now over northwest IA on the nose of a 50kt LLJ observed from FSD VWP data. These storms also had some upper jet support, moisture convergence, and steep mid- level lapse rates per SPC mesoanalysis. Recent radar trends have seen these storms weakening as they move east into a less supportive environment over central IA. Closer to home, our 00z DVN sounding showed a dry and deeply mixed profile below 750mb aiding in higher confidence in mostly dry conditions today. Mild overnight temperatures were once again seen area-wide with 1am readings in the upper 50s/low 60s.

The aforementioned showers/storms to push east over IA and continue to decay/decrease in coverage through sunrise. Have kept slight chance (<20%) PoPs across Buchanan and Delaware counties prior to 15z for some sprinkles/light showers. Otherwise, a beautiful Memorial Day is forecast as high pressure slides to the east with passing high clouds to the north giving way to sunny skies and increasing southerly winds. Afternoon highs to top out in the middle 80s area-wide.

Tonight...winds to decrease under 10kts with mostly clear skies locally. Another weak shortwave may bring some WAA showers well to our west after midnight. Overnight lows to only drop into the upper 50s/low 60s.

Tuesday...surface high pressure and weak flow aloft to bring another dry and warm day to the area with plentiful sunshine. Afternoon highs to reach the mid to upper 80s for most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Main change in the extended is decreasing rain chances mid-week, with most of the forecast area remaining dry through at least Thursday.

A weak upper low will lift NNW over MO Tuesday night and Wednesday in response to Omega block becoming more established across the northern CONUS. Latest deterministic and ensemble model runs continue to show moisture lifting northward with this low. However, 1000-500mb RH progs show better moisture depths to be displaced to our south over MO. This results in lower QPF probabilities (NBM now less than 15% for >0.1" QPF) and higher confidence in mostly dry conditions for the CWA. If this trend continues, the entire area may be dry for most of the week. The only caveat is prospects of a backdoor cold front Wednesday night that 'may' bring some sprinkles/light showers but a very dry BL could keep this as an increase in clouds.

Thursday onward...persistent Omega block to become further entrenched as the strengthening upper ridge (584 dam per LREF) becomes established near the US-Canada border. This unseasonably strong ridge (2.5 sigma or near 99th percentile per climo) to bring continued warm and dry conditions for the rest of May. For now, will keep the NBM output of 15-40% PoPs but I have my suspicions that these will be lowered even more in future forecasts. This doesn't bode well for the ag community as we could sure use the rain for the recently planted crops. All of eastern IA, northwest IL, and northeast MO has received less than 60% of normal rainfall in the past 30 days. In fact, Rockford, IL and Milwaukee, WI will see a Top 3 driest May if they receive no more rain for the month which is looking very probable.

Going into the weekend, high pressure settles into the region. This should bring a continuation to the quiet weather, with above normal temperatures through the end of the week/weekend and mostly dry conditions. This pattern will be favorable for more backdoor cold fronts, but some uncertainty remains due to widely varying solutions in guidance.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Scattered showers over northern IA will continue to dissipate over the next 3-4 hours due to diminishing and veering LLJ. Not anticipating this activity to reach the terminals and even if it did, VFR vsbys would be seen. Bulk of passing high clouds to also remain north of the terminals this morning, giving way to mostly sunny skies. Southerly winds will increase slightly through the day, with deep mixing up to 800mb allowing for an occasional gust over 20kts this afternoon primarily at CID/DBQ.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.