textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for today. While the entire is in critical weather conditions, areas north of I-80 have an even higher risk for extreme fire behavior. Avoid outdoor burning!

- Potential for a couple rounds of showers and t-storms Thursday, with any afternoon/early evening round possibly having an early season severe threat, mainly in Illinois.

- As cooler air arrives, potential for some snow late Thursday night into Friday morning; currently looks low impact.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

One of the more significant critical fire weather day is expected today! Avoid outdoor burning, be careful with discarded cigarettes and if a fire develops follow local officials guidance!

A cold front moving through the area today will bring mostly drier air to the area. Temperatures in the 50s and 60s are still expected, but with much drier air. All guidance suggests afternoon dewpoints in the teens and some CAMs suggest single digits. These single digits are lower than the NBM10, which is what was used for Td today, suggesting the floor today for RH and Tds is even lower. This means that an even more significant fire weather setup could still be possible.

As far as winds go today, spectral models suggests gusts in the mid 30kts, however looking at the CAMs, wind gusts in the 40 to 45 kt range look likely along and north of I-80. This is also where the lowest Td is forecast. While the entire area is in a Red Flag warning the more significant fire weather environment overlaps with the wind advisory area.

Tonight should mainly dry with clouds eventually on the increase as a shortwave ejects from the Rockies and induces cyclogenesis across portions of the Central Plains. Lows will be cooler, particularly north of I-80 on the cool side of the boundary with lows in the 30s while across the south likely staying in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Focus on long term turns to Thursday when the next system is expected to affect the area. A closed upper stuck just north of the area will interact with the next wave approaching the area from the SW. Even at this time, the overall H5 flow differs between guidance leading to lower confidence in impacts for our area.

Latest guidance suggests that strong to severe storms will be east of the area. Some CAMs keep the warm sector a smidge west which would suggest a potential severe weather threat. What is clear is that the low level flow is conducive to rotating updrafts if we get storms. Most of the directional shear is in the 1 to 3 km layer, before the shear becomes more speed based. CAPE, will be the main limiting factor, even in the low levels. With the uncertainty in the overall H5 flow, we cannot rule out strong to severe storms. SPC has pulled the severe risk south and east of the area. If guidance starts to come into better agreement and slows down, the severe threat may be reintroduced. The environment is supportive of severe winds and even tornadoes if we can get the better Tds into our area.

Cold advection behind the attendant cold front later Thursday night into Friday morning will foster the potential for rain to mix with or change to a few hours of snow with any wrap-around or deformation zone brushing of the area. Marginal temps and warm ground will work to negate any accums, thus minimal if any impacts. It is worth noting that winds concurrent to any snow have increasing potential to be gusting 30-40 mph.

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable conditions are expected for the weekend into early next week with predominantly northwest flow aloft.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with strong westerly winds with gusts of 40 to 45 kts possible later this morning and into the afternoon. East/west runways will be best for the next 12 hours or so. Winds will slacken after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

One of the most favorable fire weather setups for our area is expected today. SPC is messaging a 'high-end' critical fire weather day across our area. Before we get into the specifics, any fire that starts today will catch and spread rapidly exhibiting extreme fire behavior. Outdoor burning should not be attempted today! Be careful with discarded cigarettes and if a fire develops follow local officials guidance!

A 'cold' front is expected to move through the area this morning. While the front won't bring in much cooler air, it does bring in much drier air along with strong winds. These strong winds will help to mix down drier air and warm temperatures even more. RH values this afternoon in the mid teens are forecast. This is very low for our area. That combined with winds, sometimes gusting to 50 mph, especially north of I-80 will set the stage an explosive environment if any fire would start. GFDI values approaching 100, are forecast. These are some of the highest values I have ever seen forecast for the area, demonstrating just how bad any fire would be today. With strong winds across the north, power outages could occur and sparks could lead to fires as well. Be very weather aware today and if a fire starts, follow any evacuation orders.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for IAZ040>042-051>054. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. IL...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this afternoon for ILZ001-002-007. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for MOZ009-010.