textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued unseasonably warm through Tuesday. Refer to the climate section for specific numbers.

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for isolated severe storms Tuesday night, with the main hazards heavy downpours and large hail.

- A strong cold front to sweep through Friday will bring much cooler temps for the weekend and the risk for frost, especially Friday night.

- Above normal temps return Sunday and Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Unseasonably warm conditions with temperatures approaching records for the day was seen early this afternoon. As of 1pm, temperatures were in the 80s area-wide, with dewpoints in the low 60s. It feels more like mid-July outside than mid-October and the current calendar day lows were already above the normal highs for the day. Breezy south winds were developing, as our 18z DVN sounding showed 20kts at the top of the mixed layer around 930mb.

Rest of Today, temperatures to climb close to records for Oct 12th and wouldn't be surprised to see a 90 deg reading somewhere in the CWA before the day is over! Dewpoints in the lower 60s have kept afternoon min RH values above 40% and GFDIAg values and subsequent fire danger low.

Tonight, winds to decrease around sunset as boundary layer decouples. A cold front will slide east across IA bringing a wind shift and an increase in high clouds. Overnight lows will be dependent on location of the front, with readings in the upper 50s near Waterloo, to the lower 70s near Peoria.

Tuesday, another upper level wave to lift northeast east of the Colorado Rockies inducing cyclogenesis of a surface low. Ahead of this feature, a strengthening 850mb theta-e gradient with an integrated WV transport connection to Hurricane Simon southwest of Mexico will be found. PWs to rise through the day into the 1.5 to 1.7" range in our far south (near 99th percentile for this time of year). In addition, a sharp Td gradient is expected during the afternoon as much as 20 degrees across the CWA from north to south. If you want more summer humidity, head south of I-80 and if you want Fall humidity, go north of I-80. Taking a look at the severe parameter space, convective initiation is anticipated over the central Plains overs KS and towards Kansas City between 21-22z, with activity tracking east northeast. While some 12z CAM solutions have some storms developing over southwest IA/northwest MO early afternoon, the bulk of the storms to occur after 00z Wed clipping our far southeast IA, northeast MO, and west central IL counties late evening/overnight. With instability quickly decreasing after sunset, I feel that the severe risk will be quite limited with heavy downpours and an isolated hailer the main threats south of Hwy 34. In any case, SPC has a Day 2 Marginal risk for severe across the entire CWA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the overnight hours and through the AM commute, with QPF totals less than a half inch for most locations.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 150 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Wednesday through Saturday

We should see a break in the rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. However, continued high moisture across the area with another weak wave means there will be another bout of showers and storms during the day Thursday with a 70-90% chance areawide. No severe weather is anticipated. Then as the upper- level trough moves east, the surface low north of the Great Lakes will bring a strong cold front through the area late Thursday evening. This will bring some below-normal temperatures as well as gusty winds. These increased winds, despite the cooler temps, will bring an enhanced risk for agricultural fires.

There is quite the spread in LREF 850mb temperatures associated with the cold front, with the 75th-25th percentile range being 5C to -2C. This means there is some uncertainty about the extent of the frost potential Friday night into Saturday morning. Areas north of Highway 30 have the highest potential of seeing temperatures get below 36F Friday evening, especially with clear skies and a calm wind forecast.

Saturday night through Sunday

Winds will shift back to the southwest as high pressure drifts east, bringing slightly warmer temperatures for Sunday and Monday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a shortwave moving through Monday morning in the southwest flow aloft, which could bring chances for rain, but that potential will need to be monitored.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty SSW winds of 20-25 kts are expected to continue through sunset as strong winds aloft are mixed down to the surface. Past sunset, strong winds aloft atop a developing nocturnal inversion will support LLWS of 40 kts at 1500 ft. This threat will decrease at CID/DBQ first as a cold front moves into the region. The associated wind shift will turn surface winds from southwesterly to northwesterly by the end of the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Record Warm Lows for October 12th...

Dubuque, IA.........64 in 1997 Moline, IL..........68 in 1997

Record Highs for October 12th...

Burlington, IA......86 in 2024 and previous years Cedar Rapids, IA....88 in 1995 Dubuque, IA.........86 in 1886 Moline, IL..........87 in 1947

Record Warm Lows for October 13th...

Dubuque, IA.........65 in 1920 Moline, IL..........68 in 1975

Record Highs for October 13th...

Burlington, IA......95 in 1899 Cedar Rapids, IA....89 in 1975 Dubuque, IA.........85 in 1975 Moline, IL..........90 in 1975

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.