textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A low risk (10-20%) risk of isolated rain showers or sprinkles on Sunday with much cooler conditions into Monday.

- Passing systems the second half of next week will bring fluctuating temperatures and shifting winds. While there are rain chances, moisture availability will limit overall coverage.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Warm and windy conditions will continue through late afternoon with winds quickly diminishing around sunset. A few record highs may be achieved before sunset.

Dry conditions will be seen tonight with the cold front moving through the area between midnight and sunrise. Overall a mild overnight with low temperatures well above normal.

Sunday will be markedly colder compared to Saturday with high temperatures 20-25 degrees colder with windy conditions.

Forcing behind the cold front is respectable but moisture is limited. However, instinct tells me the temperature differential across the front and post-frontal forcing should be enough to generate some isolated showers or sprinkles. If showers develop, one may be able to count them on one hand. As such, a 10-20% risk of showers mainly along/east of the Mississippi seems appropriate.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Sunday night through Wednesday night Assessment...A certainty (>95%) of cooler temperatures but still above normal

The model consensus has dry conditions the first half of the work week as cool Canadian high pressure moves through the Midwest. Return flow developing on Tuesday will mark the beginning of a brief warm-up ahead of two additional systems.

The first system moves through the area on Wednesday. The deterministic model runs are dry. However, there are ensemble members, mainly the GEFS and a few members of the EPS and GEPS that have light QPF on during the day on Wednesday. As a result, the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of rain but a vast majority of the area will remain dry.

Thursday through Friday Assessment...High (>80%) confidence of temperatures well above normal Thursday then cooler Friday. Low (<25%) confidence on rain chances.

A warm front will develop across the area on Thursday ahead of an approaching surface low from the Plains. At the same time, the remnants of a low end atmospheric river will be arriving from the Pacific northwest.

The moisture associated with the remnant atmospheric river will be in the mid and high levels. Return flow from the Gulf is not there so the low level moisture is limited. By the time the low level moisture arrives, the cold front associated with the surface low will have swept through the area.

Normally a frontal boundary and a surface low has good prospects of producing rain if the low level moisture is present. In this case, it will be lacking.

As such the model consensus has a 20 percent chance of rain south of Highway 30 Thursday/Thursday night and south of I-80 on Friday. However, the MJO is progged to be in phase 8 during this time which normally corresponds to drier than normal.

Friday will be much cooler along with windy conditions.

Friday night/Saturday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of dry conditions

High pressure will build into the Midwest the first part of the weekend bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will be close to normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Low level mechanical turbulence will be seen through 00z/22 as the inversion breaks allowing wind gusts up to 25 knots. LLWS will be seen after 04z/22 as a LLJ has winds up to 45 knots in the 1-2 kft AGL layer. The LLWS will end with the passage of the surface cold front 6-12z/22 across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. Although the signal is weak, there is a 10-20 percent chance of MVFR CIGS moving into the KDBQ area after 12z/22.

CLIMATE

Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Record Highs:

March 21 Burlington: 88 in 1907 Cedar Rapids: 85 in 1938 and previous Dubuque: 81 in 1938 Moline: 82 in 1938 and previous

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.