textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A pronounced warm-up begins today, lasting through Tuesday before temperatures moderate by mid- to late-week.

- Dry conditions are expected through mid-week before becoming more active towards the end of the week. However, uncertainty remains for precipitation chances and impacts.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 221 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Our well-advertised warm-up is expected to kick into gear today as a low-level thermal ridge develops along mid-level ridging. 850 mb temperatures will steadily warm today and Monday, with the warmest 850 temperatues expected to occur around 00z/6 PM Monday per the 08.00z GEFS and ECMWF ensembles with 850 mb temperatures warming around 9 to 12 degrees C. These values are quite warm for this time of the year, as values approaching 10 degrees C would be near the daily maximum for DVN for 00z Tuesday per the SPC sounding climatology. Confidence is high for warmer than average temperatures today and Monday, but temperatures may be tempered if cloud cover persists longer than what some of the models are indicating. Models have struggled with cloud cover early this morning as a thicker stratus deck has developed over the western half of the CWA, so how things will evolve in terms of cloud cover remains uncertain. A dProg/dt of the latest NBM ensemble for high temperatures has shown a cooling trend for today and Monday, so temps could be cooler than currently forecast. Still, high temperatures today should warm to at least above freezing area-wide, with over 40 degrees likely across portions of northeast Missouri into southeastern Iowa.

Exceedance probabilities of temperatures warmer than 40 degrees increases for Monday, with the 08.00z HREF probabilities of temperatures over 40 degrees around 70-100% for areas along and south of an Independence, IA to Princeton, IL line. It's possible some locations over our southwestern CWA could reach 50 degrees or warmer, with HREF probs of 50-70%!

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 221 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Temperatures through Tuesday should remain above average, although uncertainty remains on just how warm things will get as LREF temperature probabilities of 50 degree F or warmer continues to decrease over the last few runs. Guidance agrees on a weak fropa late Monday, which will turn winds more northwesterly. Additionally, the global models are in good agreement with a broad longwave trough over the Upper Midwest, which should support at least partly cloudy skies in our area. In terms of precipitation, it's noteworthy that the NBM has dialed back precip chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday, now going with a dry forecast compared to slight chances (~20%) for the last few runs. Soundings do suggest quite a bit of dry air in place, so clouds might be the only consequence of the northern trough. As for temperatures Tuesday, the NBM still suggests highs in the lower 40s along Highway 20, with lower 50s south of Interstate 80. Similar to the high temperatures today and Monday, the trend has been to decrease these temperatures, so readings could still be lower than what the current NBM has.

For Thursday through Saturday, the pattern looks to become more active as a longwave trough develops over the western CONUS, with a couple of embedded shortwaves ejecting within the mid-level northwesterly flow, although there are differences in timing and coverage between the models. The latest NBM suggests chances of precipitation around 20-40%, which seems reasonable given the model differences. At this time, some light snow is possible, although the thermal profiles differ quite a bit among the models, and if we're warm at the surface like many models indicate, this would temper snow accumulations. Indeed, the probabilistic WSSI for minor impacts (think winter road impacts) is less than 20% for the latter part of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A VFR stratus deck has developed across most of the area under a stout low-level inversion early this morning. Models have struggled greatly to capture the development and evolution of this stratus, so confidence remains low on when the stratus deck will diminish. The most likely timing for the stratus to dissipate appears to be the late morning/early afternoon hours today. We will continue to see southeasterly winds through the TAF period, with occasional gusts around 20 knots this morning before steadily weakening this afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.