textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Frontal passage tonight will bring some rain and cooler but still above normal temperatures for Thursday.

- A more active weather pattern develops late this week and continues into next week. A significant system next week is still possible but there are questions regarding where it develops and how it evolves.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Warm advection has allowed convection to develop faster than expected today. The main push of rain looks to from 9 PM to 4 AM tonight along and immediately ahead of the cold front in the better moisture transport and slightly steeper lapse rates.

However some sprinkles or event some showers will be possible this afternoon and early evening in the strong waa.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Thursday night through Sunday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on rain occurring Friday

The first of two waves moves through the area Friday into Saturday. This wave has respectable moisture associated with it and thus the rain chances during this time period look reasonably good. The model consensus has 60-80% chances for rain which 'may' be on the high side.

Moisture from the remnants of Vance move through the Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. Compared to yesterday, the bulk of the moisture is now being shunted south of the area. This southward shift raises questions regarding the rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. The model consensus has come down on the overall chances by 10 points and are now at 20-35%. If the southern shift on this moisture plume holds, I would expect rain chances to further decrease Saturday night into Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday Assessment...medium (35-50%) confidence of a significant system occurring in the central CONUS

In the Monday through Wednesday time period, some models are advertising a significant system while others are not. This difference looks to be related to whether or not there is phasing between the northern and southern jets. IF phasing occurs, a more significant and slower system will be seen. IF no phasing occurs, then a weaker and faster system would occur.

The model consensus has slowed down the system by 12 hours and is now suggesting a Monday night into Tuesday night time frame for the best rain chances. Given the two possible scenarios in play, the model consensus has a daily risk of rain from Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Cold front to sweep through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois after 06z/29 with SHRA and a few TSRA along/ahead of the front. Ahead of the front LLWS is forecast in the 1.2 to 1.6 kft AGL layer. Once frontal passage occurs, CIGS will be close to 3 kft AGL so areas of MVFR conditions are expected.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.