textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures trend well above normal this week, increasing daily throughout. Widespread 50s and 60s can be expected by week's end, with 70s not out of question for some on Friday.

- Daily chances for precipitation will be seen Tuesday and beyond, with the highest chances holding off until late in the week. Thunderstorm chances also increase through the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

GOES satellite imagery shows widespread stratus across Iowa and Illinois, gradually working to the north/northeast. The clouds have not made it to portions of NW Illinois as of the early afternoon, but should continue to overspread the entire area later this afternoon into this evening. The 18Z DVN sounding showed low-level moisture trapped beneath a sharp temperature inversion around ~950mb, and with little boundary layer mixing the low clouds are expected to remain over the area into Tuesday. A weak mid-level impulse, embedded within zonal flow aloft, is forecast to traverse the area tonight. This could help to generate a few light rain showers or some patchy light rain or drizzle with the highest chances south of I-80 (50-80%). Overall though, rainfall amounts are expected to be light with most locations picking up a trace to only a few hundredths. South of Highway 34, some areas could receive near a tenth of an inch. The stratus tonight will act to hold up temperatures mainly above freezing with mid 30s most common for lows. Areas north of Highway 20 could briefly drop to near freezing so there is a slight chance (<20%) for patchy/light freezing drizzle in this area late tonight into early Tuesday morning (after midnight through 6 AM). Overall this is a low confidence scenario and little to no impacts are anticipated at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Tuesday and beyond, upper level flow transitions from brief zonal flow to southwesterly. This pattern change will allow temperatures to increase throughout the area for the remainder of the week, bringing temperatures well above seasonal norms. We will also see a stark increase in moisture, which will allow for near daily chances for precipitation. The first of these precipitation chances comes in Tuesday/Tuesday night, as the first wave in this active pattern moves through. A baroclinic zone will remain draped over/near the area, which will serve as a focal point for the axis of heaviest precipitation. Models are now less aggressive on the northward extent of the steadier rain through Tuesday night, keeping most of it south of I-80. Highest precipitation probs are well south of Interstate 80 (60-80% PoPs), with lower probs north (10-30% PoPs). Rainfall amounts through Wednesday have trended lower with the NBM showing a 40-60% chance for 0.50"+ along and south of Highway 34 and much lower probs for I-80 and north (10-30%).

A lot of similar weather will be seen through the second half of the week, with temperatures continuing to trend upwards. We will see widespread 50s and 60s by the end of the week. There remains some uncertainty on how high our temperatures get, owing to dense cloud cover and persistent rainfall. Either way, we will still be well above seasonal norms. As we progress through the week, we will see the pattern become more amplified, shunting the baroclinic zone farther north. Thus, we will see precipitation probabilities increase northward each day through the week, favorable for widespread rainfall potential. Through the second half of the week, the more amplified pattern will also allow for some instability to build over the area. Thus, thunderstorm probabilities will increase, with stronger forcing also favoring the potential. With such a pattern, deep layer shear will also increase through the week. Thus, wouldn't be shocked if we start to see some stronger storms as the week progresses. Looking at CSU severe weather probabilities, the overall threat for severe seems low (<15% chances), but non- zero. Thus, will have to keep an eye on the extended, as the SPC is also hinting at severe potential extending northward, bringing the Day 5 15% chance of severe northwards to just near our southern border.

While the week is going to be gloomy with persistent precipitation chances, the rain will not fall all at once. Thus, totals aren't expected to add up quickly. In the end, right now we are not seeing any flooding concerns, owing to below normal soil moisture and thawed grounds. This active pattern looks to attempt to breakdown into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A rather challenging TAF period especially late tonight into Tue morning with respect to changing categories due to lowering clouds and precip trying to move north acrs the TAF sites. Even this evening there is some varying MVFR to VFR CIGs, and then top-down saturation and moisture from the south tries to build north reducing CIGs and producing at least light rain and drizzle after midnight and especially toward sunrise Tue morning. The precip may have trouble spreading north of I-80, but a secondary band may close in on CID and DBQ by mid Tue morning. Early Tue morning with light/variable winds, the increased saturation and even a few breaks from the east, may also foster at least some MVFR fog in areas especially south of I-80. Could see a scenario of fog and drizzle through at least mid Tue morning, along with patchy light rain here and there. MVFR clouds could linger all day through the end of the TAF cycle. Sfc winds will be generally light with some type of easterly component for much of the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.