textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A pronounced warm-up is on the way for the early part of next week before cooling down for mid- to late-week. Chances of high temperatures reaching 50 degrees on Monday are 20 to 50 percent for the southwestern portions of our area.

- Dry conditions are expected through Monday before becoming more active for Tuesday through the end of next week. However, uncertainty remains for precipitation chances for the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

A sunny start to the day is expected today as an area of high pressure slides eastward over the western Great Lakes. Winds will become light and variable this morning before turning more southeasterly in the wake of the high pressure ridge axis. This will result in low-level warm air advection (WAA), with high temperatures forecast to warm to the upper 20s over northwest Illinois to the middle/upper 30s south of Interstate 80.

There will be some increasing clouds this afternoon into this evening as a mid-level shortwave dives southeastward from the northern Great Plains. Increasing low-level WAA should also support a narrow band of light snow developing over southern Wisconsin into north-central Illinois, but the vast majority of the individual GEFS/ECMWF ensemble members keep this band of snow just outside of our CWA. If we did receive snow tonight, it would be very light in nature, with minimal impacts. With mostly cloudy skies and continued southeast winds, tonight's lows should actually be warmer than average, in the lower to middle 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

The main story for Sunday through Tuesday will be on a warming trend as a thermal ridge develops over the central CONUS. The peak of this thermal ridge looks to come late in the day Monday (around 00z/6 PM), with 850 mb temperatures warming around 9 to 12 degrees C per the latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean values. These values are quite warm for this time of the year, as values near 10 degrees C would be near the daily maximum for DVN for 00z Monday per the SPC sounding climatology. While record high temperatures aren't expected for this stretch, it will feel noticeably warmer. Tuesday's temperatures are a bit more uncertain as a frontal boundary is progged to sweep through the early morning hours Tuesday. Cloud cover and cool air advection, with a low chance (10-30%) of precipitation, could keep temperatures cooler on Tuesday in comparison to Monday. Interestingly, the 07.00z LREF ensemble exceedance probabilities of 50 degree or warmer temperatures Tuesday has gone down quite a bit from the previous run (was 20-70% area- wide from the 12z run, now it's 10-40% chances along and south of Interstate 80). This large shift for probs on Tuesday gives us more uncertainty for the high temps. It's possible the NBM is too warm for high temperatures on Tuesday, given the aforementioned reasons. In the wake of the frontal passage on Tuesday, temperatures are expected to relatively cool down, with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Wednesday through Friday, and lows dipping to the middle to upper 20s. While it will be cooler compared to Monday and Tuesday, these values are still above average for this time of the year.

As far as precipitation is concerned, the overall synoptic pattern does appear to become more active as there are a few mid-level shortwave impulses progged to cross the area for the latter part of next week, which could support some precipitation over the area. However, timing and coverage remains uncertain due to differences among the global models, and the NBM accordingly has lower chances of precipitation (20 to 40%) for Wednesday night through Friday. I don't expect it will precipitation this whole period in any one location, but it's something for us to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions expected to last through the period with winds around 10kts. Winds will gust into the 20kt range tonight. MVFR cigs could return late in the period, especially at CID where we added a few025 to start trending that way.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.