textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather today, with above normal temperatures and mostly clear skies.

- Above normal temperatures will remain through the remainder of the week, with precipitation chances limited. Areas along Highway 20 may see a chance for sprinkles/light showers tonight through Wednesday night.

- Drought conditions likely developing in the coming weeks.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave in Nebraska rounding the edge of an upper level ridge. Another LLJ around 40kts and upper level divergence per SPC mesoanalysis has maintained scattered showers/thunderstorms over northern NE and northwest IA. Closer to home, mostly clear skies were seen with 1am temperatures mainly in the lower 60s.

Another early morning of watching showers/storms weaken as they track east over IA is forecast as the LLJ weakens and storms move into a more stable and dry environment. 00z HREF 4-hr max reflectivity progs have this idea and I have kept a dry forecast through sunrise this morning. Otherwise, another pleasant day is in store for eastern IA, northwest IL, and northeast MO with high pressure in control and dewpoints only in the low 50s. Forecast soundings show us mixing similar to our 00z sounding last evening (up to 800mb), yielding highs in the upper 80s. Weak low level flow will keep surface winds under 10 mph for much of the day today.

Tonight...surface high and dry low levels to bring continued mild and dry conditions. A weak shortwave over MN combined with increasing low level convergence and theta-e temperatures to allow for showers/storms to form to our northwest over southern MN and track southeast. However, most 00z CAMs and instability progs show this activity to dissipate just before reaching our northern border. Overnight lows to drop into the upper 50s/low 60s.

Wednesday...aside from lingering clouds in the morning, another quiet weather day is expected. Slightly higher dewpoints in the upper 50s may make it feel a tad more humid outside. Afternoon highs to reach the upper 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are likely to continue for the rest of May and possibly into the 1st week of June. The only caveat is prospects of a backdoor cold front Wednesday night that 'may' bring some sprinkles, but a very dry BL will likely keep this just an increase in clouds.

Persistent blocking pattern (Omega block) with an unseasonably strong ridge (2.5 sigma or close to the Max percentile per NAEFS/ENS) near the US-Canada border to support a high confidence dry forecast. NBM output has now removed mentionable PoPs (>15%) from the entire period and WPC 7 day QPF has dropped to zero for the CWA. Ensemble 50th percentile Total QPF solutions also have come down further and now all show less than 0.10" QPF through June 4th! Given the dry ground (less than 60% of normal rainfall in past 30 days) this will likely contribute to drought conditions developing/worsening over the next 2 weeks. Time to start watering your May flowers.

Going into the weekend, high pressure to drop south out of the Great Lakes, with continued dry conditions and above normal temperatures, albeit a little cooler than the current work week. Quite the nice end to the month of May!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. An area of high pressure remains in control over the area, leading to light southerly winds around 5 to 10 knots today. High clouds slowly build in from the southeast.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.