textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous life threatening cold tonight, with wind chills -25 to -40 degrees. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for the entire area for late tonight through Friday morning.

- Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills will continue through the weekend, but not quite as cold as tonight. A Cold Weather Advisory is now in effect for the entire area Friday night through Saturday morning.

- Northward shift of snow chances this weekend, with 40-70% probabilities of 1" or more of snow along and south of I-80.

- Unsettled and cold weather pattern continues next week, with several chances of snow.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 206 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Cold and breezy conditions were observed this morning with mostly sunny skies. This allowed for a nice depiction of the snow cover that remains along and north of Hwy 30 on GOES Day Snow RGB imagery. Surface observations show gusty west winds over 30 mph at times are beginning to develop in the cyclonic flow aloft, as we mix down stronger winds evident on our 18z DVN sounding and VAD profiles. This has resulted in some blowing and drifting snow particularly in rural open areas where snow fell over the past 2 days. DOT road conditions show partially covered roads north of Hwy 30.

Blustery conditions are expected through the remainder of the day with west winds turning to the northwest this afternoon. Winds gusting over 30 mph may result in continued blowing and drifting snow north of Hwy 30 this afternoon/evening primarily in rural areas. A strong 1048 mb high will build into the northern Plains tonight with a tightening pressure gradient locally keeping winds up overnight. These winds combined with strong CAA (850mb temps dropping into -19 to -25 C range or 3.5 standard deviations below normal at that level) will push wind chills into the -25 to -40 degree range tonight and early Friday resulting in dangerous cold conditions. If you need to go outside, limit your time outdoors and cover all exposed skin. Air temps to drop into the single digits to teens below zero, with the lowest values north of Hwy 30 where there is snow cover.

Friday...a strong 1048mb high pressure (2.5 sigma per NAEFS/ENS ESAT tables) will build into the upper Midwest keeping arctic air firmly entrenched over the region. Despite the sunshine, highs will struggle to reach 0 degrees for most locations which hasn't happened since January 14-16th 2024 when we had 8+ inches of snow on the ground. This is also the last time we had wind chills below -30 degrees. Needless to say, this air mass is quite impressive! In fact, a record high may be in jeopardy at DBQ and is listed in climate section below. Wind chills will remain below -15 degrees for most of the day and as a result we have replaced the Extreme Cold Watch with a Cold Weather Advisory beginning at Noon Friday through Noon Saturday.

Friday night...center of surface high is progged to be near La Crosse, WI, with mostly clear skies initially and decreasing winds. Winds are not expected to go completely calm and we may still see a few hours in the Hwy 20 corridor of wind chills close to -30 degrees overnight that will need to monitor. Clouds will increase early Saturday that may help keep temps from completely bottoming out and subsequent wind chills in check above warning criteria.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

This Weekend...all attention in the long term remains on the well- advertised significant winter storm set to impact the south/east CONUS from the Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain Saturday and Sunday. The latest 12z ensemble and deterministic data continues to show more phasing taking place with southern stream wave and digging positively tilted northern stream trof. This has resulted in higher snow amounts compared to 24 hrs ago further north, with NBM probabilities of 1+" now in the 40-70% range along and south of I-80. For 2+" snow, probabilities are highest along and south of a line from Ottumwa to Princeton, IL with 35-60% values. Forecast soundings also show a rather deep DGZ, with strong forcing supporting this northward shift. The 12z LREF has 70% of its members with at least 0.1" of QPF at BRL with this storm and the deterministic NBM has 0.22" QPF. Needless to say, some accumulating snow is likely for areas south of I-80 and a winter weather advisory may be needed if this north trend continues. One thing to also note, is this system will have a sharp gradient of little to no snow on its northern edge which will be somewhere in our CWA. The good thing is that winds should be light as the snow falls and we have high confidence in snow as the ptype.

Next Week...northwest flow to keep the pattern unsettled with several clippers moving through the flow aloft. As typical with clippers it is hard to pinpoint where and when these will occur at this time range but an active and cold pattern is expected. Some more cold weather headlines may also eventually be needed. Winter lovers can rejoice that the cold is here to stay for a while.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

High pressure is forecast to slowly move from the Northern Plains this evening southeastward into Minnesota by 00 UTC Saturday This is forecast to lead to VFR conditions across the area with ceilings between 10kft to 20kft with gradually increasing cloud cover, especially after 12 UTC Friday. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots are forecast to gust to 25 to 30 knots through 6 UTC tonight with winds gradually decreasing with speeds around 10 knots after 18 UTC on Friday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 206 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Record Cold High Temperatures:

January 23: Dubuque: -8 / 1963

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for IAZ098- 099. IL...Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024. Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035. Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for ILZ025- 026-034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory from noon Friday to noon CST Saturday for MOZ009-010. Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Friday for MOZ009- 010.