textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog and drizzle may again impact the area at times through Friday morning.

- Above normal temperatures continue through Sunday.

- A strong cold front is forecast to move across the area on Sunday with noticeably colder temperatures Sunday night into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 926 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Webcams and observations show dense fog becoming more widespread across SE Iowa, NE Missouri and portions of WC Illinois this morning. In some cases webcams show less than a few hundred feet of visibility in spots. I have issued a Dense Fog Advisory roughly from Washington to Burlington and south/southwest and ran it until 18z/Noon. Admittedly confidence is low on the extent, if any, improvement will occur today with the flow just off the surface turning more from the ESE per VWP data from DVN and ILX and thus may be needing to extend beyond 18z. Will continue to assess trends.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Widespread dense fog has spread over the entire area as of late evening on Christmas Eve. Like kids waiting up all night for Santa, we've been patiently anticipating the arrival of slightly drier northeast winds overnight. As of 2 AM, north winds are blowing, but still generally under 10 kts (except DBQ at 14kts!), and only just beginning to mix out the fog. However, models remain consistent that the backdoor cold front/increase in northeast winds is set to spread in before sunrise today, resulting in mixing out the boundary layer saturation, and increasing visibilities. This is most confident in our northeast counties, with western areas potentially not seeing this improvement until mid morning. As conditions improve, we'll clear out counties from the advisory, and should the west remain socked in, extend that towards the 5-6 AM time frame.

Today, once the fog breaks up, we're still going to be dealing with extensive low stratus over the entire area. NBM highs today are quite mild, generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Given the extensive clouds, I've knocked that back just a bit, but still expect a very mild, albeit gloomy Christmas Day.

By afternoon today, another wave of low pressure will begin bringing lift to our area, resulting in the stratus deck producing more drizzle. Initially, this should be patchy, but by evening, as stronger lift arrives, areas of drizzle can be expected through the evening and overnight. Like yesterday, QPF will be very low, generally T-0.05", but wetting surfaces should be widespread, and I've gone ahead with 50-75% pops for this event. With the drizzle, the light convergent winds with the wave of low pressure appear ripe for fog formation, and dense fog is again a good bet.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 207 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

This mild, and dreary pattern will continue through Sunday morning, in advance of the cold fropa Sunday. The NBM has followed other guidance in showing more a of passing low pressure along the cold front Sunday. This is resulting in a wetter, cloudy, and milder forecast into Sunday. While fog potential is not highly confident this far out, it's the same low level air mass in the Midwest then, that's here now, and I'd expect similar issues with overnight fog and any areas of convergence during the day as well.

Sunday's temperatures have been greatly increased from earlier forecasts given the slower solution now preferred. While far from confident, this slower low/cold front passage Sunday offers a slight chance for some thunder, mainly in the far south, as an MUCAPE axis nears our south, with the low pressure Sunday morning. Rainfall still appears to favor low amounts in our area, but will need to be watched for any further slowing of the timing, which could allow for more moisture entrainment into our area, before we see strong CAA Sunday afternoon through Monday. For now, our pops do show rain changing to snow as it ends Sunday afternoon, but for the moment, this does not look to be an impactful transition.

Sunday night through Tuesday morning continue to appear rather cold, with a potent shot of Canadian high pressure arriving, associated with 925mb temperatures below -12 reaching into our CWA. The main impact for us, given our lack of snow cover, with this cold windy pattern would be to freeze our muddy lawns again.

This cold looks to transition back to slightly above normal temperatures by mid-week, and first days of the New Year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Ceilings:

Widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings largely anticipated to persist through the period. Obs show some MVFR ceilings over NW Illinois and some transitory lifting to MVFR is anticipated at MLI and possibly DBQ (lower confidence) this afternoon on strengthening E/NE flow before lowering again with sunset.

Visibility:

Currently seeing predominantly IFR to MVFR visibilities in fog. Anticipate further modest improvement to mainly MVFR to VFR this afternoon. However, expect with sunset that visibility restrictions in fog will drop back down into IFR/LIFR and possibly more widespread VLIFR later tonight into Friday morning.

Precipitation:

Patchy drizzle will be possible at times this afternoon. Tonight, as lift increases I expect more widespread drizzle and even some areas of low measurable (few hundredths of an inch) light rain develop tapering off Friday morning.

Winds:

Winds will be mainly from E/SE into tonight with speeds 5-15 kt and localized higher gusts this afternoon. Late tonight as low pressure moves in winds are expected to become light before shifting from the northwest at 5-15 kt Friday morning, as the low departs.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ076>078-087>089- 098-099. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ025-034. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ009-010.