textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures and generally quiet weather is expected through the upcoming weekend. One exception may be a period of scattered showers and isolated storms late Thursday night into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Quiet and warm weather will continue through Thursday as another area of high pressure builds into the Plains and Midwest. Expect highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s (north to south) today and then a touch cooler on Thursday with a range between the upper 60s to mid 70s. 850mb temps start relatively warm early today with mid/upper teens (C) along the I-80 corridor before cold air advection via northwest flow aloft drops values to around 10 C by Thursday. All-in-all beautiful weather is expected over the next few days, especially for early October. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Thursday Night and Friday...Several solutions continue to suggest that as the LLVL ridge departs off to the east, an embedded short wave in steering northwesterly flow aloft will combine with an increasing LLJ with some THTA-e advection to produce an elevated wing of convergent WAA type showers and even some embedded thunder acrs portions of the MO RVR Valley and into central IA Thu night into Friday morning. The models are still varying on the placement and how far north or south this wing develops, and how far east it can make it through Friday morning battling lingering ridging acrs the southern GRT LKS/OH RVR Valley. The consensus is that some showers and mid deck of clouds will get into the local area from the west if even in a decaying fashion. But they also show ongoing convergent LLJ processes enough to keep some showers festering acrs the area for much of the day Friday until lifting off to the north and east Friday evening. The NBM has 15-40% chances for 24-hr QPF of 0.10"+ focused north of Highway 34, highest in far west- central counties.

Saturday and Sunday...Digging long wave upper trof acrs the Pacific Northwest and ridging amplifying up the GRT LKS will result in warming southwesterlies acrs the MID CONUS and toward the GRT LKS. Saturday will be a full blown warm sector day with breezy southerly winds and increasing thicknesses that support highs in the 80s for much of the area. This may be a day of increased cropland fire danger risk depending on humidity trends. Then eyes turn to the tropical system in the Gulf and the path it may take getting drawn northward inland. A more western track of the weakening system this weekend could bring a little light rain into far eastern sections of the outlook area. While a slightly more eastward track would result in dry conditions for our area. The NBM currently has slight chances for rain on Sunday mainly east of a Princeton to Macomb line.

Monday and Tuesday...A significant drop in temperatures is possible early next week as a seasonably strong cold front moves through the Midwest. Based on latest model guidance, the drop in temperatures may hold off until Tuesday or Wednesday. Beyond Monday, the NBM is showing a large spread in max temps, with the current mean forecast in the 60s across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. However, these values could trend lower with 50s possible for highs across portions of the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

A large ridge of high pressure nudging down acrs the region out of the northern plains will ensure a VFR TAF cycle through midday Thursday. Northwesterly sfc winds of 10-15 KTs with a few higher gusts will trend light westerly this evening and into Thu morning. No fog concerns for tonight with dry airmass in place in the VCNTY of the TAF sites anyway.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.