textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- No hazards are expected in the week ahead, with a gradual warming trend into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

A large area of high pressure centered overhead brought another quiet mid-November day with plentiful sunshine and dry conditions. Dewpoints this morning have been lower than originally forecast resulting in Noon temperatures already in the mid 40s, which is 4-6 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. With this mind, raised highs a few degrees near the higher end of guidance into the lower 50s.

Tonight, surface high to slide east into the Ohio River Valley. Overnight lows to be not as cold as this morning only to drop in the upper 20s/lower 30s.

A building upper level ridge across the central CONUS is forecast to bring continued dry conditions to start the work week, along with a return of above normal temperatures. This strong anomalous ridge (near 99th percentile on the LREF) to strengthen, with 500mb heights rising around 580 dam 12z Tuesday. This would be near the daily max for DVN on Nov 17th per SPC sounding climatology. Through Tuesday night, expect to see continued large diurnal temperature ranges, with highs warming a few degrees each day to near 60 degrees Tuesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

The aforementioned strong ridge to slide east into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday, allowing a fast moving shortwave and associated surface low to lift northeast from the Great Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will drag a cool front through the CWA on Thursday. Ahead of the front, strong return flow evident by 850mb winds increasing around 50kts, to allow for breezy south winds to advect in warmer temps. Well above normal temperatures in the upper 50s/lower 60s Tuesday through Saturday are forecast! With the NBM dewpoints verifying too high as of late, we may need to watch for any fire wx concerns given our dry antecedent conditions and gusty southwest winds Wednesday/Thursday.

Regarding precipitation chances, ensemble forecast soundings and layer RH progs suggest there will be plenty of dry air to overcome resulting in mainly sprinkles/virga Wednesday night aside from what the NBM shows (10-20% PoPs and zero QPF). These PoPs may end up lowering further in later forecasts. The western CONUS upper low to then eject a shortwave into the Plains, resulting in 15-60% PoPs Friday afternoon through Saturday. Taking a look at a dprog/dt of the NBM QPF, there is a downward trend in >0.1" probabilities ending 12z Sat with highest values (40-50%) northwest of Cedar Rapids. There remains considerable differences with the evolution of this wave in the deterministic and ensemble runs of the GFS/ECMWF. Something to watch will be whether there will be any phasing of a northern stream wave Saturday as the 00z ECMWF suggests, which could bring a slower system and higher PoPs along a cold front.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1054 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Ideal flying conditions are expected with no restrictions to visibility, near calm wind, and thin cirrus.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.