textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire conditions will be seen today across much of the area. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas along/west of the Mississippi. East of the Red Flag Warning an elevated fire risk exists.

- A significant warm-up into early next week will result in temperatures going well above normal.

- Southwest flow aloft developing by the end of the month will create better prospects for some rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include more of the area. Refer to the fire weather section for more information.

Windy conditions will develop by late morning across the area and continue through the afternoon. The combination of wind and near full sun will allow deep mixing of the atmosphere and cause humidity levels to plummet. The low humidity levels will allow temperatures to climb rapidly into the 50s this afternoon.

Winds will be slow to diminish after sunset with it taking most of the evening hours to lose the gusts. Southerly flow overnight will keep temperatures above freezing.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Sunday through Monday Assessment...a certainty (>99%) of well above normal temperatures

The western upper level high will de-amplify and move into the eastern CONUS as the pattern change commences. The persistent southerly flow will slowly bring more moisture into the area along with temperatures well above normal.

At a minimum, an elevated fire risk exists for both Sunday and Monday.

By Monday temperatures will be well into the 70s with 80s expected over much of the area. Record highs may be challenged. Refer to the climate section for specific information.

Monday night through Friday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of another cool-down

Warm advection aloft Monday night will be seen with a weak upper level disturbance moving through the area. The influx of moisture aloft may result in some isolated nocturnal showers or even a thunderstorm to develop. The deterministic runs of the models are essentially dry but several ensemble members are depicting the potential for precipitation.

The model consensus has 30-50% chances for rain which look high given the initially dry atmosphere. The higher pops are traceable to the moist bias in the GEFS. The better chances for showers and potential thunderstorms look to be across Wisconsin.

After Monday night, the model consensus has a daily chance of rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms. However, these daily chances are related to timing differences of the larger scale features and the better rain chances look to be broken down into two difference time periods.

The first is with the passage of the cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night. Here the models differ in the timing of the front. The frontal passage will also determine the overall potential for strong to severe storms. Ahead of the front very warm temperatures will again be seen which will result in another elevated fire risk.

If the frontal passage occurs during the afternoon (suggested by some solutions), then the potential for strong to severe storms is there. As mentioned yesterday, some of the machine learning sites are suggesting the potential for severe storms. If severe storms occur, the most likely time frame would be 3-11 PM Tuesday.

It is interesting to note that some of the deterministic model runs have backed off on the overall amount of QPF being generated. This decrease appears to be traceable to the amounts of moisture available.

The other favorable time frame for rain looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday when another system is progged to move through the Midwest. However, the model solutions vary considerably in timing and evolution of this system. As a result, the potential for rain may linger into Thursday night and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the TAF cycle. Winds will start out light and variable, but they will shift to southerly this morning and increase with gusts 15-25 kt this afternoon into early evening, highest gusts favored at KCID and KDBQ. Southerly winds will diminish some tonight, but enough pressure gradient to support around 10 kt sustained with occasional gusts into the mid/upper teens possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong southerly winds will develop by late morning with gusts of 25-35 mph during the afternoon. The highest wind gusts look to be west of a line from Dubuque, IA to Fairfield, IA.

The combination of strong winds and near full sun will allow deep mixing of the atmosphere causing afternoon dew points to drop into the 10 to 15 range with the potential for high single digits. These values are around the 10th percentile for the NBM or slightly lower. Yesterday, afternoon dew points were close to the NBM 10th percentile.

Temperatures in the 50s with such low dew points will drop humidity levels into the teens for most areas west of the Mississippi with humidity levels of 20-25% east of the Mississippi. Forecast GFDI values are in the very high to extreme category so any small changes to temperature, wind or humidity levels could result in higher/lower GFDI values.

A check of the RAWS sites indicate fuel moisture levels are currently 7-8 and have the potential to drop further today. The rain that occurred last Thursday night was spotty in nature and the area has had over 24 hours of strong winds to help dry out the ground.

CLIMATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record highs for March 30th....

Burlington.........84 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......82 in 1943 Dubuque............81 in 1943 Moline.............82 in 1986 and previous years

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. IL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-015-024-025-034. MO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ009-010.