textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through Memorial Day and into early next week.

- Increasing humidity levels and rain chances middle of next week, followed by dry conditions late week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Early morning surface observations and RAP mesoanalysis depicts a surface low over eastern SD, with a cold front extending south towards Sioux Falls and Omaha. Area radar mosaics show scattered showers slowly moving east over western IA ahead of the front. Earlier last evening, two tornado warnings were issued in western IA with this activity. Closer to home, an expansive area of low clouds and weak low level flow has kept temperatures mild overnight with readings only in the upper 50s/low 60s.

Forecast focus in the short term is on precip chances this afternoon/evening. The aforementioned cold front will slowly track east over IA today, with increasing low level moisture expected ahead of it. Building low level instability, steep low level lapse rates, and a forcing mechanism (front) eroding any CIN will allow for scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms to occur after 18z today. Most 00z CAMs support this with some of the most aggressive solutions having scattered coverage (NAMNest,FV3,RRFS) likely due to slightly higher Tds today. Very weak low level flow and deep layer shear displaced to our northwest should prevent any severe storms. In addition, 0-1 km SRH values on the 00z HREF are progged an order of magnitude lower than those that occurred in western IA last evening, so not anticipating any low level stretching/tornado threat at this time. Those that do see any thunderstorm today, could see a nice 0.50" rain and the 00z HREF 3-hr QPF PMM would favor south of I-80 for this to occur. Most areas will receive much less than this. Highs today will be largely dependent on cloud cover and have lowered them slighly into the upper 70s area-wide. Overnight lows to drop into the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Zonal flow aloft early in the week to bring dry conditions and a warming trend going into Memorial Day, with above normal temperatures likely. Widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s are forecast for the holiday. Great weather for any outdoor activities!

Tuesday onward, a cutoff upper low over the southern Plains will slowly lift northward in response to a building upper ridge over the upper Midwest. This will bring us the next best chance of widespread precipitation, however there remains quite the model spread on amount of available moisture, timing, and the location of strongest forcing. In any case, the latest NBM 72-hr QPF probs for >0.25" is now in the 50-70% range along and south of I-80 which is 10-20% higher than its previous 06z run. Hopefully this trend will continue as we could use more rain. Once this system eventually dissipates, an Omega block will form over the northern CONUS late in the work week leading to another dry period and continued above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Low VFR/MVFR conditions are expected through the period. MVFR cigs just south of BRL to spread north over the next 3-6 hours, with low VFR cigs elsewhere. A cold front will track east across IA today, with most guidance now showing scattered convection developing ahead of the front late morning through the afternoon hours. Have delayed PROB30 wording for shower activity and can't completely rule out thunder mention, but confidence still not high enough to include at this time. Pockets of MVFR to localized IFR visibility are also possible with any showers and isolated storms. Winds to remain under 10kts and veer westerly with the fropa late afternoon/evening.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.