textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak systems moving through late tonight through Friday will provide chances for light snow or flurries across the northern, northeast and eastern areas.

- A brief warm-up is expected ahead of the system on Thursday but a more pronounced warm-up to above normal temperatures commences this weekend and into next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Today: High pressure over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region will lead to partly to mostly clear skies, light winds and seasonable temperatures in the 20s to lower 30s. A clipper system will begin dropping in from the north late tonight, with the 500mb vort. max tracking across the western Great Lakes region. Warm air advection aloft will overspread the area, but models are in agreement on dry conditions persisting through the overnight period with light snow falling well to the north over portions of central/northern Wisconsin. Lows tonight will be in the teens.

Thursday: The majority of models are dry during the morning with the EC being a notable exception, painting light QPF along/east of the Mississippi River (between 0.01 - 0.05"). For now, the current forecast is weighted more toward a drier scenario but something we'll have to monitor as patchy light snow/flurries could brush the eastern third or so of the outlook area. There is also a low potential for patchy freezing drizzle on the western edge of the precip with forecast soundings showing a loss of in-cloud ice late morning/early afternoon. Southwest to westerly low-level flow will allow temperatures to quickly warm up into the afternoon with highs expected to reach the mid 30s northeast to low/mid 40s central and south.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A second system will pass to the north of the area late Thursday night into Friday. However, there is a wing of waa that will side- swipe the area late Thursday night. The EMCWF-AIFS shows this quite nicely by painting northwest Illinois with some low QPF. Based on this we have gone with 15-30 percent pops for areas east of a Dubuque, IA to Princeton, IL line. The passage of a cold front Friday afternoon combined with diurnal heating may be enough to generate some very isolated convective cells. The signal for this is quite weak this far out and if it does occur, areas east of the Mississippi would be favored.

Friday night through Monday night Assessment...high (70-90%) confidence of a pronounced warm-up

The overall flow pattern across the CONUS will be undergoing a change this weekend and into early next week. The MJO is forecast to begin constructive interference with equatorial Rossby waves across the eastern hemisphere which should favor a warm-up over the eastern two thirds of the CONUS. However, the degree of warm-up has uncertainty tied to it due to variability in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

The model consensus is indicating a sustained warm-up with a building thermal ridge across the central CONUS. A building thermal ridge should push the active storm track well north of the area. However, there still appears to be a signal indicating a split flow across the CONUS. Thus while the Friday night through Monday period currently looks dry, further into next week is in question.

Tuesday Assessment...low confidence on precipitation. High (70-90%) confidence on above normal temperatures

With the upper flow pattern in flux over the weekend, the global models vary considerably regarding the sensible weather and potential impacts for Tuesday and through the end of next week. The GFS/CMC are mainly dry through mid-week and the EC has a system affecting portions of the Midwest Wed. night through Thursday. NBM PoPs are in the 20-40% range with low confidence on exact timing and placement of precip this far out. Where the models do agree is that temperatures will be well above normal for mid-February.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 545 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

High pressure in control will lead to prevailing VFR, light winds and good low-level visibility through the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.