textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Outside of a low risk of rain around Wednesday, mainly dry with near normal temperatures for the work week.

- De-amplification of the flow pattern aloft by the weekend raises the prospects of more systems potentially moving through the area. Rain is possible for part of the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The weak upper level disturbance that produced some rain from central into southeast Iowa will exit the area by sunset. The overnight hours will be quiet as southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching system.

On Tuesday another weak disturbance will move through the area. The current suite of models have dry conditions which will likely be correct for 90-95% of the area. However, I would not be surprised if it generates some isolated showers or sprinkles.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Tuesday night through Friday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of near normal temperatures

Low level flow will become more southerly during the week which will slowly raise humidity levels.

A weak system is progged to move through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday but the moisture is lacking. The trend with rain chances has been a slow decrease and I would not be surprised to see an additional 5-10% decrease from the current 20-30% chance. The relatively 'better' forcing is north of I-80 which is closer to the low track.

Saturday through Monday Assessment...low (20-30%) chances for any rain

By the weekend de-amplification of the flow pattern aloft will occur across the CONUS. During this change a flat ridge will be centered from the southern Plains into the upper Midwest. Thus while more systems will potentially be moving through the area, they will be topping the ridge axis and would thus be at their weakest.

Any Gulf moisture for the systems has to come up through west Texas before turning northeast into the Plains.

Right now the model consensus has mainly 15-30% chances for rain Saturday through Monday with the better rain chances north of I-80. In looking at the AIGFS and AIFS, rain chances are not as good which would support a further reduction in rain chances as the week progresses.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Winds to remain 6 knots or less but will slowly become more southerly through 00z/25. After 00z/25 winds of 5 knots or less from the south or southeast through sunrise. After 12z/25 winds will be 5-10 knots from the southeast or east southeast.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.