textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather Thursday. Damaging wind and heavy rain are the primary threats.

- Beautiful weekend weather, with a return to a more active weather pattern early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

An upper-level ridge over the central Plains and Upper Midwest continues to impact the region. Winds this morning are weak, with a slight wind shift just north of the area along a weak boundary. To the west, a surface low continues to develop. Southwesterly flow along the warm conveyor belt can be seen on satellite imagery, with a stratus deck across the central Plains moving to the northeast.

Today will be another warm and dry day, with temperatures reaching into the upper 70s/low 80s. Deep mixing to 830mb will allow for the PBL to dry considerably, which will reduce any chances for precipitation to near zero. Despite this deep mixing, winds will remain southwesterly and weak (<10mph) due to weak flow aloft. Towards the afternoon, clouds will begin to move into eastern Iowa, with additional development over northwest Illinois. These clouds will then move out of the region overnight, allowing for overnight lows to cool into the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Thursday-Friday...a strong negatively tilted trough will track along the US-Canada border, with 5-15 dam 12-hr height falls across the northern Plains at 18z Thursday. 850mb theta-e moisture transport increases through the day ahead of a cold front progged to reach northwest IA and eastern NE by 00z Friday. Locally, the CWA will be fully entrenched in the warm sector with afternoon dewpoints rising into the upper 50s/low 60s. Aloft, an EML plume will effectively keep us capped for most of the day and with the lack of a trigger, a dry Thursday is forecast. Attention then turns to potential storms firing along a pre-frontal trough out ahead of approaching cold front Thursday night/early Friday. Taking a look at ensemble CAM 40 dbZ paintballs and CAPE/Shear combined probabilities, there is agreement that CI should take place just to our west for the pre- frontal activity after 6pm. Marginal deep layer shear to keep severe threat limited initially before storms out in western and central IA grow upscale into a line or two and moves in late. Have some concerns that instability will quickly wane before storms arrive thereby limiting the overall severe threat. However, a strengthening LLJ may keep storms going into our area with the main concern damaging winds. In addition, 0-3 km shear vectors over 35kts do begin to align orthogonal with the orientation of the storms after 23z, which may allow for a very low QLCS tornado threat as well. As a result, SPC has added a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk for severe weather for areas along and west of a line from Dubuque to Quincy, IL. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger into Friday AM, before diminishing mid-day.

Friday Night-Sunday...a beautiful weekend is in store as we transition from semi-zonal to southwest flow aloft. High pressure will slide east across the upper Midwest, with a dry easterly low level flow keeping dewpoints in the 30s/40s. Afternoon highs to top out in the upper 60s/low 70s! Perfect weather for any outdoor activities.

Sunday Night-Tuesday...a breezy, cooler, and rainy start to next week is looking likely as a strong shortwave ejects into the central Plains inducing cyclogensis on the lee side of the Rockies. 00z ensemble means take the low from western KS across IA into southern WI by 00z Tuesday. The GEFS may be a tad faster than other solutions but still has the general consenus track. Strong 850mb moisture transport ahead of low combined with large scale forcing will allow showers/storms to blossom and overspread into the region Monday. The latest NBM 48-hr QPF >1.00" ending 12z Tuesday has increased into the 40-50% range. Taking a look at severe potential this far out, better overlap of instability/shear should remain further to our south and is also supported by most ML/SPC outlooks. All in all, a prolonged nice soaking rain is forecast.

Looking just beyond the 7 day forecast, the CPC is highlighting a 70% combined probability of below/near normal temperatures in its 8 to 14 Day outlook (Apr 29th-May 5). Ensemble meteograms at MLI would suggest min temps in the low 40s may be possible to begin the month of May!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Largely VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The only exception will be later this morning as an MVFR stratus deck that has developed over north-central Missouri will continue to expand northeastward towards BRL. Models have struggled with the coverage of this stratus, but latest GOES- East satellite has it progressing faster than a lot of the models, so confidence has increased in it moving through BRL later this morning. Eventually, the stratus will dissipate by late morning. Southerly winds will be in place today, generally around 5 to 10+ knots.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.