textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful heat will continue across the area today and Friday. Heat indices look to be 100 to 110. The heat headlines may need to be extended into Friday (advisory) and Saturday (warning) depending upon how convection develops/evolves over the next 48 hours.

- Isolated severe storms are possible today through Saturday mainly north of I-80. The primary risk is damaging winds with hail a secondary risk.

- There is a daily risk of showers and storms, mainly along and north of I-80. While there is a risk of rain, there will be plenty of dry hours.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 142 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Headlines...

Right now no changes have been made to the current heat headlines. HOWEVER, the current heat advisory north of I-80 could be extended into Friday and possibly Saturday depending upon how convection evolves over the next 48 hours. Similar thoughts on the current warning potentially needing to be extended into Saturday.

Discussion

A small persistent cluster of showers and a few rumbles of thunder formed along a theta e gradient with some wind convergence aloft north of Highway 30. That feature is exiting the area so mainly dry conditions should be seen through sunrise.

New convection has developed along similar theta e gradients in northwest Iowa but the overall wind convergence is weaker. Internally the RAP generally moves those theta e gradients east northeast from their current position which potentially could allow some isolated showers or even a thunderstorm to get into the Highway 20 corridor prior to sunrise.

Impactful heat and humidity remains the key message for Thursday with no rain for 95 percent of the area. The possible exception is the Highway 20 corridor. The quasi-stationary frontal boundary is just north of the area which will likely have some low end convection festering along it all day.

Tonight there may or may not be some isolated convection in the Highway 20 corridor during the evening that dissipates with sunset.

After midnight is where things become interesting. The better rain chances are still across Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, with the upper ridge slowly retrograding into the Plains, a weakness in the heat dome develops which would place areas north and east of a line from Independence, IA to Mt. Carroll, IL in a more favorable set up for nocturnal convection.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Friday through Monday...With the latest medium range run of ensembles continuing to show the brunt of the upper ridge axis shunted back to the west acrs the MO RVR Valley and eastern plains, Saturday may be a more optimum day of having a boundary or two(such as a northeast flow LK MI enhanced front) for storms to pop up on in the heating of the day. There also will be the potentail for another day of 100+ degree heat indices especially acrs the south half of the CWA and the need for heat headlines, especially taking into account the accumulative days of heat into account. Then hopefully the local area will become more under the influence of western GRT LKS sfc ridging for cooler, a bit less humid and mainly storm-free days for the second half of the holiday weekend.

Mid next week...still signs of the thermal ridge temporally getting shunted back up toward the region for an above normal temp surge Tue into early Wed, before a bigger cool front push and pattern change commences by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Morning storms across north central and northeast Iowa will slowly work eastward with a gradual mid-late morning fade. Some outflow influence from these could result in isolated showers or storms in/around DBQ this morning with low confidence in this, although enough for a PROB30 mention. For this afternoon, isolated storms north of I-80 cannot be ruled out, but even lower confidence on that. Otherwise for today, southerly winds will prevail and sporadic gusts in the mid teens kts possible mid-morning through mid-afternoon.

For late tonight, confidence is high in at least scattered storms over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/Iowa border area that should gradually move southeast. How far they track and how much coverage is quite uncertain, but DBQ would have some potential to see storms by 10Z, and a non-zero potential at CID and MLI after daybreak Friday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The Quad Cities (MLI) has had two days to start this month with 95 degree highs. If a third happens today, it would be the longest such stretch in September since September 4-6, 1990.

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

September 3: KDBQ: 73/1939 KMLI: 76/1939

September 4: KDBQ: 71/1912 KMLI: 74/2018

September 5: KDBQ: 76/1881 KMLI: 76/1925

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ040>042- 051>054-066. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for IAZ063>065-067- 068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ001-002-007- 009. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ015>018- 024>026-034-035. MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ009-010.