textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and warmer Thursday daytime with elevated fire danger.

- Strong winds Thursday night into Friday morning. Gusts to 60 mph possible in northeast and east central Iowa.

- Spring storm system this weekend brings half to one inch of rainfall areawide and potentially a few inches of wet snowfall to northeast IA and northwest IL.

- Behind the storm system is seasonably very cold temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A band of snowfall is slowly exiting the area this afternoon with a changeover being observed on some surface observation sites of rain mixing in northwest Illinois. After the precip band exits the region, expect dry conditions tonight. Observed winds are breezy from the northwest this afternoon and will stay that way into the early evening hours today. As the pressure gradient lessens this evening under an eastward moving high pressure, expect a decrease in the surface wind speeds tonight to 5-10 mph.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

By Thursday morning that high pressure ridge axis will be centered over the Lower Michigan placing the Mississippi River corridor region under a warm(er) air advection regime. Temperatures tomorrow daytime are only expected to reach right near normal though. Low pressure over the Northern Plains will be moving eastward along the International Border at this time. An associated warm front lifts through the forecast area Thursday mid-day to create quickly increasing gusty southwesterly winds lasting into the evening hours.

The primary moisture pool Thursday daytime will be located well north into southern Minnesota so this keeps an elevated fire weather concern over our area. This will be due to that combination of gusty southwesterly winds and minimum relative humidity dropping to near-30% for parts of eastern Iowa.

As the cold front approaches the region, a few hour time period of rain showers brushes through the east-half of Iowa and northwest Illinois. This will create a quick few hour window for some light to moderate rain showers over the forecast area, but rapidly decreasing south of a lien from Warren through Jefferson counties.

The low pressure entering northwest Wisconsin overnight Thursday will create an enhance pressure gradient over the Midwest. This synoptic setup will create gusty winds further aided by strong cold air advection into the region from the Northern Plains. Areawide wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph are forecast Thursday night, with higher gusts to 60 mph possible for northeast IA and parts of east-central IA. These conditions last into Friday morning and may affect that morning's commute. For the potential of downed tree limbs and sporadic power outages, a High Wind Watch was issued for those counties that have the highest 60 mph wind chance (60-70% chance) Thursday night into Friday morning. Other counties may also need future Wind headlines (more likely towards Advisories) in future forecast packages.

As the low pressure center exits the region Friday late morning, the strongest winds are forecast to slowly decrease through the daytime hours...while remaining gusty from the northwest. Dry weather is very likely Friday afternoon and evening.

By late Friday into early Saturday though, the active weather pattern may (30-40% chance) return. An approaching warm front from a rapidly deepening Central Plains low pressure system begins to create a band of precipitation stretching from western Illinois into the Northern Plains. This system passes through the Lower Midwest Saturday afternoon through Sunday. This spring storm system is very likely (70-80% chance) to bring at least a 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rainfall to the entire forecast area this weekend. Ensemble global model guidance even indicates a 50-60% chance of 1-1.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation north of I-80 by Sunday evening.

This being a spring storm system and the cold air mass that will be located just to the north of the forecast area keeps a chance of accumulating snowfall for northeast IA and northwest IL from late Saturday night into Sunday night. In this time period, there is a 60-70% chance of at least 2 inches of new snowfall north of I-80 and 20-40% south of I-80. Looking at the 4" threshold gives a still 60-70% chance for seeing this moderate snowfall along the US Hwy 20 corridor, including the city of Dubuque. If there is any trend even slightly southward with this storm center location, snowfall amounts could further push even more southward and/or increase.

By Sunday morning and afternoon, expect another shift of winds from the east to northerly and gusting at least 30 to 40 mph again. These winds may coincide with some of the snowfall Sunday afternoon and evening so will have to be watched for any visibility impacts from falling snow within these strong winds.

After the spring storm system moves out of the area, early next week looks to start seasonably very cold...high temperatures in the 20s (90% chance) and lows in the single digits.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Stratus deck continues to exit the area, leaving us with mostly clear skies going into the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Main concerns will revolve around winds between 00-03z this evening, as we continue to see gusty northwest winds with gusts upwards to 25 KTs. After 03z, we will be left with northwest winds around 10 KTs through much of the night, gradually shifting westerly around 12z. No sig wx is expected at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for IAZ040>042-051-052. IL...None. MO...None.