textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A significant warm-up will continue today through Saturday, with a return of near-average temperatures by Monday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A quiet morning was seen across the area, under partly to mostly clear skies. The precipitation associated with the overnight clipper we've been advertising continues to be farther away from our region to the northeast as drier than expected air remains in place. A dProg/dt of the HREF ensemble soundings over the last three runs shows a stronger signal for drier air below 700 mb, which bodes well for a dry forecast for this morning. With that said, we have pulled all probabilities of precip in our forecast area. One thing to watch for early this morning is a low chance (10-30% per the NBM) of fog. Pretty significant melting of the snowpack occurred yesterday, and a stout low-level inversion remains in place, so this could provide enough moisture needed to generate some fog across our northern CWA, especially if we can clear out. It's not a strong signal, and more likely than not to not materialize, but we'll continue to monitor.

Longwave upper ridge over the western half of the CONUS will continue through the end of the week before breaking down by Saturday night/Sunday. Before that occurs, the next few days will be dry, with a significant warm-up. A strong thermal ridge will continue to build over the central US, peaking on Saturday. For today, even warmer temperatures are expected as the HREF ensemble exceedance probabilities of 50 degree F or warmer temperatures are 60 to 100% (over 90% along and south of Highway 30). The NAEFS ensemble suggests 850 mb temperatures to warm over 90 percent of climatology, so an anomalously warm air mass is on the way. Additionally, dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will aid to further melt the existing snowpack, so expect even more of the snow to go bye-bye today. The above average temperatures will continue tonight, with lows expected in the lower to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The significant warm-up continues Friday, and especially Saturday, as 850 mb temperatures increase even more. Signals for the building thermal ridge by Saturday are rather impressive, with the NAEFS 850 mb climatological percentiles increasing to near the maximum of the climatology for this time of the year. Both the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures for Saturday have values between 16 to 19 degrees C, which is impressively warm for mid-March. High temperatures Saturday look to warm to the upper 60s over northwest Illinois to the upper 70s over southeast IA/northeast MO/west- central IL (isolated spots could reach the 80 degree F mark!).

As we head into Sunday, the synoptic pattern is progged to become more zonal aloft as the upper-level western ridge breaks down. This would be more favorable for systems to pass through our area, and indeed, there is a signal among the global models and LREF ensemble for a cold front to pass through the area. There doesn't appear to be a lot of moisture associated with the front, so the signal for dry conditions is looking pretty favorable. However, there are suggestions for Sunday to be a breezy day, with the ECMWF ensemble probabilities of wind gusts over 30 mph around 40-70%. Not too concerned with relative humidities at this time due to our ongoing snow melt, so not thinking Sunday to be an active fire weather day.

Temperatures will cool to more seasonal values by Monday post-fropa, with highs likely to warm to the middle 40s to lower 50s. There is a signal for temperatures to warm up again for Tuesday and Wednesday, but the models diverge during this period as additional systems could move through the area during this time. However, model timing and coverage is quite spread out among the global models, so uncertainty remains pretty high this far out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle. Winds will remain light and variable, with morning fog risk remaining over northern and northeast Iowa. Winds aloft will increase late in the period in response to passing surface low over the upper Midwest. This may bring a risk of LLWS early Friday, but left mention out of TAF at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.