textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 12 PM today, expect visibilities down to a quarter mile or lower at times.

- A strong system to affect the area later in the weekend bringing periods of rain, isolated storms south of I-80, and a transition to snow with rapidly falling temperatures Sunday PM.

- Windy conditions Sunday PM into Monday are expected along with much colder temperatures. West to northwest gusts around 45 mph are anticipated with sub-zero wind chills into Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Today - Tonight: Areas of fog, dense at times, will continue through this morning and could linger north of I-80 into the afternoon. It will be another gloomy day across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois with mild temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Hi-res models have the fog redeveloping this evening into tonight, especially along/north of the counties along I-80. The fog could be dense again tonight and another advisory may be needed. A strong storm system will come together across the Central U.S. late tonight into Sunday, fueled by an incredible northwest to southeast 850mb temperature gradient from western North Dakota to southeastern Kansas (-26 C to +16 C, or ~75 F!). Widespread rain is expected to develop Sunday morning as notable mid-level height falls and corresponding large scale ascent overspread the region, and PWATs reach to near 1" (>99th percentile for this time of year per NAEFS).

Sunday: Cyclogenesis is forecast to occur over northern Missouri into west-central Illinois with the surface low quickly shifting toward southern Lake Michigan into Sunday evening and deepening below 990mb. The current favored track of the low from north-central Missouri toward Chicago would bring the warm sector close to our far southeast to east- central counties, where dewpoints may briefly reach the mid/upper 50s. The enhanced low-level moisture may yield several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and support isolated thunderstorms along/ahead of a strong cold front. SPC has continued to hold the Marginal Risk for severe storms just off to the southeast of the outlook area, focused more into central Illinois and east-central Missouri. Any storms that develop south and east of the Quad Cities could produce gusty winds and small hail. Additionally, isolated elevated storms are possible further to the north up to near the I-80 corridor. For rainfall amounts, a widespread quarter to half inch is anticipated with localized higher pockets where the heavier downpours pass through. Very strong west to northwest winds will develop behind the cold front Sunday PM as temperatures quickly fall from the 50s/40s to the 20s/teens! This abrupt drop in temperatures will be accompanied by a changeover from rain to wintry precip, potentially leading to slippery travel conditions for some areas due to a possible flash freeze scenario (right now favored north I-80).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Sunday Evening - Monday:

Following the strong cold front will be the onset of strong W to NW winds and plummeting temperatures Sunday afternoon and night. Bufkit soundings continue to show around 40 kt atop the mixed layer and with favorable momentum transfer via deep unidirectional flow and cold advection, and a tight pressure gradient surrounding a sub-980 surface low, confidence has increased on gusts reaching 40-50 mph and a Wind Advisory may eventually be needed. The snow chances and potential for some accumulation appear432 to be increasing as well, as a result of the slower/stronger system owing to more moisture lingering in the cold air, especially across the northern service area near the projected track of the mid level low.

NBM probabilities for 1"+ of snowfall are between 30-60% along the Highway 20 corridor and drop off sharply to the south. The strong winds with the falling snow could bring some bouts of lower visibility and as temperatures fall below freezing Sunday night any untreated wet surfaces will freeze and become slick. The brunt of the cold arrives Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures bottom out in the single digits and teens. Combine these with the winds and it will be bitter cold with wind chills lowering into the range of zero to 15 below.

Be sure to stay weather aware this weekend given the multi-faceted system with a potential variety of impacts!

Tuesday - Friday:

Next week, starting to see more consensus toward a northwest flow pattern. This would support staying colder /near normal/ and would favor clipper systems with potentially one for New Year's Eve into New Year's Day with rain/snow depending on the track.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Forecast remains on track with poor aviation conditions expected into tonight with persistent low clouds (LIFR ceilings) and periods of dense fog (LIFR/VLIFR vis.). Visibilities should improve this afternoon at CID/MLI/BRL with lower confidence on the fog completely eroding near DBQ. The fog will redevelop again this evening into tonight, and could be dense at times. Scattered showers will increase in coverage late in this period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ040>042-051>054- 063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ001-002-007-009- 015>018-024>026-034-035. MO...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ009-010.