textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy and continued below normal today with spotty sprinkles or light showers at times...most of the day dry though.

- A pattern change will result in warming temperatures each day this weekend and into next week, bringing above normal temperatures back to the area by Sunday.

- A potentially more active pattern will take shape next week, but there is uncertainty on how far north or south the main storm track will lay out. Warm summer-like temperatures still seem to be in line for much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Today...Large GRT LKS ridge complex will look to maintain for much of the day, while an upper trof seen on the current water vapor(WV) loop acrs the central Rockies shears out toward the northeast plains. Sfc wave development and frontogenesis will continue to organize acrs the north half of the plains in response, while the ridge to the east holds on enough to maintain easterly boundary layer winds acrs the area today. Associated vort spokes with upstream wave will try to produce spotty light showers or more likely sprinkles as they try and propagate this way, but the dry cool easterly LLVL fetch acrs the local area will keep a lot of this activity at bay and in virga form. With the clouds and east winds at 10-20 MPH, don't see the high temps today making it past the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tonight...Mainly dry, mostly cloudy and still on the cool side with lows in the low to mid 50s. Will have to watch for a sfc wave near the MO Bootheel rolling up acrs northern Indiana to try and spread some rain and lower clouds in from the east as the night progresses. The eastern I-80 corridor may have the best chance of experiencing some of this activity if it can make it this far west.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Saturday...Expect some breaks in the cloud cover and a different BL flow pattern to allow temps to warm back closer to seasonal normals for this time of year in the mid to upper 70s, and sfc DPTs in the mid to upper 50s. But some worry more clouds and less mixing may make the NBM blend too warm again and we may be more in the line of low to mid 70s. Part of the upstream upper trof will look to edge this way, and there may some isolated to wdly sctrd showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm Sat afternoon and early evening. Shear profiles are weak on the fcst soundings, and if we lean toward the cooler scenario there may not be much in the way of shower activity and definitely not much thunder potential. Saturday night into Sunday morning low temps in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday into Monday, a wave will stall out over the south- central CONUS, where the cutoff upper low will remain through the start of the work week. As it sits and gyrates over the south, upper level flow becomes more weak and zonal overhead through Tuesday, with the cutoff low set to move north towards the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will pull some forcing/moisture into the area, resulting in increasing PoPs. Showers and storms may result that night, largely in the form of stratiform rain with some embedded thunderstorms. Although, there remains uncertainty on the track of the low, with the EURO keeping the precipitation shield south and east of the area and the remainder of guidance at least introducing rain to portions of the area. From there, much uncertainty remains on the forecast. For the most part, global models are showing a deepening trof over the Rockies, with ridging east. This would result in a more active pattern, with southerly flow further increasing temperatures and moisture. Thus, precipitation chances will also be on the rise midweek and beyond. Although, specifics on timing and amounts are uncertain now due to widely varying solutions in guidance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue over all local TAF terminals through at least the evening hours tonight. Easterly winds will persist the next several hours near or just above 10 knots before weakening this evening through the overnight hours as high pressure settles in. There may be some MVFR ceilings at both MLI and BRL late tonight into early Saturday morning, but confidence remains too low to add to TAFs for now, but it's something to keep an eye on with subsequent TAF issuances. An isolated light shower or sprinkle is possible this morning, most likely for CID. Impacts to flight conditions are not expected.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.