textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures this weekend will turn cooler, yet remain near/above normal for most. We will see temperatures trending above normal once again next work week, with 50s returning for mid-late week.

- Active weather pattern through the next week will result in several chances for precipitation, ranging from snow this weekend to rain next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Conditions favorable for rapid fire spread will continue through sunset this evening, thanks to westerly winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph. A Red Flag Warning continues through 6 PM. For more details on the fire weather conditions, please see the Fire Weather section.

Winds will weaken after sunset this evening, leading to a quiet night under increasing cloud cover from the west as our next system moves in for Saturday. A cool night is expected, with lows dipping to the lower 20s along Highway 20 to the lower 30s across our far south.

A northern jet stream aloft will build across the Midwest, ushering in a mid-level shortwave that will cross the Upper Midwest during the daylight hours Saturday. An attendant low-level FGEN band along 850-700 mb layer warm air advection is progged to just graze our northern forecast area, with the potential of some light accumulations from snow. The 27.12z HREF ensemble soundings show a dry air wedge below the WAA layer, which would help limit accumulations as the ice crystals sublimate. Also, relatively warmer pavement temperatures are expected, which are expected to also contribute to light accumulations. Total snowfall will likely be only up to a half inch for most locations along the Highway 20 corridor. Some spots may exceed a half inch, but totals closer to one inch appears unlikely, with the WPC ensemble suggesting 10-30% chances of one inch of snow for locations along Highway 20. High temperatures Saturday will range quite a bit, with the baroclinic zone right on top of the area, with temperatures around the freezing mark along Highway 20 up to around the lower 50s south of Highway 34.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 203 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through the long term. Northwesterly flow will allow for multiple systems over the next several days, with highlights of increasing temperatures and multiple chances for precipitation.

A weak surface low will pass south of the region Sunday night. Precipitation, likely snow based on the thermal profile, is expected with this system, but uncertainty remains in the northern extent as high pressure sits to our northeast. Models have trended southward with the track, with most keeping any accumulations south of Interstate 80. Close to the Interstate could see up to an inch, while farther south up to 2 inches could be possible (30-40% chance of accum. greater than 2 in). Based on these light accumulations and the timing, the probability of WSSI minor impacts is low (20-40%).

Following Sunday's snow chances, Monday will be dry and mild with slightly warmer temperatures into the low 40s. Ensembles indicate chances for precipitation (pops 40-70%) Monday night, though the deterministic models keep this precipitation south of the CWA. Any precipitation is expected to be rain due to the warmer temperatures.

More chances for rain continue Tuesday as a system develops off the Rockies. Temperatures will increase ahead of this system as southerly winds advect warmer air into the region. Further development of this system is expected as it moves through the region Wednesday and Thursday as a ridge builds across the eastern US. The shortwave progresses at different rates across ensemble members, highlighting uncertainty in the timing and track of the system. Despite this uncertainty, signals for precipitation are present in most members, with a 30-60% chance of 3-day totals exceeding 1 inch.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1114 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will start the TAF period northwesterly around 10-15 KTs, but will continue to decrease and shift easterly through the morning. By 15z, we will see northeast winds around 10 KTs. We will have a system pass north of the area today, bringing a low-end chance for light snow in our north. DBQ currently seems to be the only location that may see impacts from the snow, but confidence remains low. Thus, opted to stick with the PROB30 group at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

West to southwest winds gusting between 25 to 35 mph, combined with very dry fuels and low humidity levels dropping to 20 to 30 percent and anomalously warm temperatures will support elevated to critical fire weather conditions through sunset this evening. The area most susceptible to these conditions will be over southeastern Iowa, northeast Missouri, and west-central Illinois, where winds will be their strongest. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for these areas. A Special Weather Statement has also been issued for locations north of the Red Flag Warning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.