textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an elevated fire risk today south of an Ottumwa, IA to Monmouth, IL line.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms today. Hail and damaging winds are the primary risks, mainly between 3 and 10 PM.

- There is a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe storms on Wednesday.

- Moisture surging north from the Gulf the second half of the week with a high (>80%) probability of two moderate to heavy rainfall events.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

An upper level disturbance moving into Iowa and Wisconsin will allow nocturnal convection to persist through sunrise. Very short term models have been hinting at new convection developing south of the current cluster around sunrise. This new convection appears to be tied to a weak upper level disturbance that would move northeast out of Kansas and interact with the residual outflow boundary from the current convection.

The cold front is progged to enter the far northwest late this morning with it nearly out of the area by early evening. Temperatures look to drop a quick 10-15 degrees following frontal passage with a brief jump in wind speeds.

Record high temperatures today are doubtful north of I-80 given the timing of the front. Burlington 'might' have a chance if strong differential heating can occur. Refer to the climate section for specific numbers.

The elevated fire risk is more confined today compared to Monday. Refer to the fire weather section for more information.

The convective allowing models are strangely quiet on new diurnal convection. A deeper dive into the models show very steep lower and upper level lapse rates but mid-level lapse rates are more stable. This points to a cap in the mid-levels that may limit new diurnal convection.

Regardless, there will likely be isolated to low end scattered showers and a few storms that develop as the front moves through the area.

IF severe storms develop this afternoon/evening, hail and damaging winds would be the primary severe risks. The favored area would be south of I-80 and a likely time frame would be 3-10 PM. When the LLJ strengthens tonight, the potential is there for some elevated severe storms producing hail.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Wednesday through Thursday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of another cool down followed by a warm-up and some rain occurring.

All global models have converged on a frontal stall occurring from southern Missouri into the Ohio Valley. This would suggest the northern half if not the northern two thirds of the area could end up being dry Wednesday with scattered showers in the south third. This scenario is supported by the ECMWF-AIFS and AIGFS. This scenario has a 40% probability of occurring.

The other scenario (60% probability of occurring) is the LLJ bringing in Gulf moisture will create widespread upglide over the front as it moves north as a warm front. In this scenario the upglide with create elevated storms north of the front and surface based storms along the warm front. The severe risks would be hail and damaging winds but strong shear near the frontal zone would be capable of producing brief tornadoes.

Currently the model consensus has a risk of rain across the entire area with the better chances south of I-80 in support of the second scenario.

The main event is Wednesday night into Thursday.

The overall signal has been very persistent of a large plume of Gulf moisture moving north as a seasonably strong low moves northeast into the Midwest. The strength of the moisture surge is slightly lower compared to yesterday but IVT values are 800-1000 kg per meter squared per second. Additionally, the models are converging on having the low center passing through central Iowa. This track combined with the high IVT values places the area favorably for a moderate to heavy rain event. The potential is there for a fairly widespread soaking rain of 1-2 inches with narrow bands of higher amounts.

Temperatures will be below normal on Wednesday with windy conditions adding an additional chill to the air. Above normal temperatures will be seen on Thursday with the area in the warm sector of the storm system.

Thursday night rain will end from west to east as the system departs the area.

Friday through Saturday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on another storm system

The global models have another storm system moving through the Midwest in the Friday through Saturday night time frame. There are some timing differences between the models so there is a 50-60% probability that a good chunk of Friday will be dry. Temperatures on Friday will be well above normal.

There is good model consensus that Friday night into Saturday will be prime time for rain. Like the previous system there is a tropical connection with the Gulf but IVT values are a bit lower at 600-800. These values are still supportive of a moderate to heavy rain event.

Saturday night rain will end from west to east following the passage of the attendant cold front.

Sunday through Monday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on another cool down

The model consensus has a strong Canadian high building into the Midwest which will result in temperatures below normal on Sunday.

There is a weak upper level disturbance moving through in the flow aloft on Monday. Moisture availability is in question but an isolated rogue shower cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Low level jet and an upper level disturbance moving northeast through Missouri has initiated scattered SHRA/TSRA across southeast Iowa. Very short term models have this activity continuing across northern Illinois through 18z/31. After 18z/31 cold front sweeps through eastern Iowa and northern Illinois with very little convection associated with it. Given frontal strength potential is still there for some isolated SHRA/TSRA south of I-80 through 02z/01.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Well above normal temperatures and windy conditions will again be seen across the area today. Spotty overnight rainfall has limited the elevated fire risk to areas south of an Ottumwa, Iowa to Galesburg, Illinois line.

CLIMATE

Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record highs for March 31st....

Burlington.........82 in 1986 Cedar Rapids.......81 in 1986 Dubuque............79 in 1986 Moline.............83 in 1986

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.