textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and more seasonable conditions expected to start the work week.

- Rain chances (40-70%) return Wednesday night through Thursday evening along with increasing humidity levels.

- Building heat this weekend and into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Mostly clear skies and mild temperatures were seen early Monday, with readings still in the upper 60s/low 70s. Dewpoint depressions were generally in the 2-4 degree range and with light northeasterly wind has kept any fog development at bay for now. Water vapor satellite has a compact upper low slowly dropping south near the KS/MO border that will keep any shower/storm activity to our southeast today.

Mostly sunny skies and slightly lower humidity levels to make for a rather pleasant summer day today. A large area of high pressure over the Great Lakes to keep a dry easterly flow over the region advecting in some drier air off of Lake Michigan today, with dewpoints only in the mid 60s for most this afternoon. Some fair weather cumulus is also expected once convective temperature is achieved, with the 00z RRFS/00z HREF keeping any shower/isolated storm activity southeast over central IL. Afternoon highs look to top out in the mid 80s.

Tonight...decreasing clouds and near calm wind is forecast allowing temperatures to drop into the lower 60s for the 1st time since June 27th. With these lows just below crossover temps, some patchy fog is possible, primarily in river valleys and low lying areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Little change noted to the forecast in the extended. A persistent compact upper low to remain over the lower MS RVR valley through Wednesday before making its way eastward Thursday, with the local area transitioning to a zonal flow aloft. Several shortwaves to move through the flow primarily over the northern Plains and upper Midwest resulting in dry conditions for the CWA through at least Wednesday. In fact, the cool front Wednesday night has slowed down resulting in NBM PoPs decreasing through 06z Thu compared to our previous forecast. Forcing along and behind the front is also more favorable north and west of us which leads to lower confidence rain forecast Thursday. One thing that is becoming certain is the return of 70+ degree dewpoints Thursday onward with NBM probabilities now over 60% area-wide. Heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will be possible.

Another stronger shortwave shown by the ENS/GEFS ensemble means is progged Thursday night to move over the central Plains bringing likely PoPs into the forecast to end the work week. A frontal boundary over northern MO/southern IA may provide a focus for storms Thursday night/Friday. With another high PW/moist environment in place, heavy rain will be possible. As expected this far out, CSU/Machine learning guidance for severe is very low and inconsistent but something to monitor in the coming days.

Beyond Friday, all deterministic and ensemble guidance show a large anomalous 598 dam 500mb ridge building into the central CONUS. Above normal temperatures are likely and with the maturing crops adding additional moisture into the atmosphere, we could see more heat headlines by early next week. The latest CPC Day 6-10 day temperature outlook has 85% combined probabilities of near- above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Patchy fog with IFR to MVFR visibilities will be most prevalent in river valleys and low-lying areas, and should dissipate by 13z-14z with predominantly VFR conditions thereafter. Southern Lake Michigan stratus has been drifting southwestward into north central Illinois. Winds in the cloud-bearing layer are from the northeast, which should keep these lower MVFR ceilings east of the terminals. That being said I can't rule out a transitory bout of MVFR ceilings mid to late morning near BRL and MLI with surface heating and initial stratocu development on the western fringe of the more prominent cloud shield. Patchy valley fog will be possible once again late tonight.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.