textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and comfortable weather is forecast through Sunday.

- Chances for thunderstorms return Sunday night into Monday night. Severe weather is possible mainly Monday PM with a level 3 of 5 risk for the entire outlook area.

- Flooding continues on area rivers.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Mid-level ridging and surface high pressure over the Mid Mississippi Valley to Western Great Lakes region will lead to quiet conditions through Saturday night. Cool temperatures in the 40s are expected tonight, with plenty of sun on Saturday pushing highs into the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

On Sunday, models are in good agreement that the closed low to our northwest will gradually lift northeastward during the day as ridging centered over Indiana builds and expands across the region in response to a shortwave moving across the Great Basin and into the Plains on Monday. This will lead to increasing chances of precipitation Sunday night through Monday night as 500 MB trough and it's attendant surface low lift from Colorado/Kansas into the central Great Lakes by 12 UTC Tuesday. Current operational model runs depict this trough as negatively tilted as it arrives into the Plains with the current timing across the area during peak heating on Monday.

Monday: Deterministic models show at least moderate instability developing Monday afternoon/evening across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois (which will depend on the extent of temperature/moisture return across the region), along with strong deep layer shear as an upper jet overspreads the warm sector ahead of a surface low. Machine learning guidance (NCAR/NSSL/CSU) has the highest severe weather probabilities across the southern half or so of the outlook area. With that said, SPC has a level 3 of 5 risk across the entire outlook area for Monday. While the details are unclear this far out, all severe weather hazards will be possible with favored timing of the strongest storms during the afternoon and evening. Stay tuned to the forecast through the weekend!

Tuesday On: The mid-level shortwave trough will absorbed into a deep trough and closed low that shifts southward into the northern U.S. Tuesday through the end of the week with the area on the southern edge of broad cyclonic flow. The current forecast is dry for Tuesday and Wednesday with a subtle shortwave in the flow present in model ensemble forecasts bringing a return to chances of precipitation to end the period while deterministic models remain dry. Temperatures during this period will be near normal for the end of April with high temperatures in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure moves across the region. Gusty NW winds to 20 kt will become light northerly tonight, veering to NE late. This NE flow may advect some stratus and fog off Lake Michigan into NW Illinois late tonight and early Saturday morning, but consensus keeps this east of the terminals and this appears reasonable given rather marginal speeds (10-15 kt) in the cloud bearing layer for propagation into the terminals. It may not be too far to the east and will still need to be monitored. Otherwise, winds on Saturday will turn easterly and increase to around 10+ kt.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.