textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy, dry and relatively warm conditions will result in an elevated fire risk mainly south and east of a Dubuque to Cedar Rapids, IA line today.

- A quick moving storm system will bring rain changing to snow mainly Wednesday night. While some snow is expected, the time frame and areal coverage is decreasing.

- A split flow pattern that favors northwest flow will be seen across the CONUS the second half of the week and into next week. Weak systems in the flow will bring the prospects of some precipitation over the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 248 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Chilly conditions will continue through sunrise and the first part of the morning with wind chills at or below zero.

Strengthening southerly flow during the day will help boost temperatures. However, there will be a considerable amount of mid and high level clouds which in spite of the stronger late February sun should temper highs today.

Winds at the top of the mixed layer are running 30-35 knots (depending upon the model). A good chunk of this should mix down during the late morning and afternoon ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. This should result in some wind gusts up to 35 mph across mainly the eastern half this afternoon.

The gusty winds combined with the relatively warmer temperatures and very dry conditions will result in an elevated fire risk for areas south and east of a Dubuque to Cedar Rapids, IA line today. Current plan is to issue an SPS regarding the fire risk prior to sunrise.

Tonight winds will diminish with time and skies will clear as high pressure moves through the area ahead of the next system.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 248 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Wednesday through Thursday Assessment...high (>85%) confidence on a storm system. Low (<25%) confidence on placement of precipitation

The trend with all models has been to a more open wave for the system that moves through the Midwest late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Given the flow pattern aloft this makes more sense than the closed system some of the models were showing a few days ago. At the same time, an open wave means a weaker system and thus much less precipitation.

Another trend with the models has been to slowly move the open wave further south with time when it comes out of the Rockies. This in turn raises questions to where the precipitation would lay out across the area. Additionally, a southward trend raises the prospects of the air being much drier across the area which would further reduce the overall precipitation amounts.

Indeed, forecast soundings from the various models show a very deep dry layer across the area. Top down saturation slowly occurs Wednesday night but there is still a layer of dry air at sunrise Thursday in some model solutions.

Given this the current 20-30 percent chances of precipitation across the the western third of the area Wednesday afternoon looks suspect and will likely turn out to be dry.

Based on the forecast soundings, the time frame and areal coverage of precipitation Wednesday night is decreasing. A best estimate right is is a 6 to perhaps 9 hour window for rain changing to snow staring around 9 PM Wednesday night with the snow ending between 3 and 6 AM Thursday.

Since the window for snow is shrinking, the potential for accumulating snow is also decreasing. With a southward shift and narrowing of the snowfall window, areas south of Highway 30 have the potential of seeing very minor accumulations with a narrow band of 1 inch accumulations. North of Highway 30, flurries or a minor dusting may occur.

Right now the model consensus has 20-60% chances for snow with the higher chances south of Highway 30.

There may or may not be some lingering light snow Thursday morning. If there is, any lingering snow would be done by the conclusion of the morning commute.

Thursday night through Friday night Assessment...High (>80%) confidence on dry conditions. Low (<20%) confidence on temperatures.

The model consensus has dry conditions across the area with southerly flow bringing more warm air into the area for Friday. However, there are questions regarding how warm it may get on Friday.

At the surface there is moderately strong southwest flow occurring across the area which will draw warmer air into the area. In the mid- levels of the atmosphere the flow is more northwest. Forecast soundings of the atmosphere show an inversion aloft. This indicates the better warmer air is aloft rather than at the surface. If the inversion remains in place (suggested by some models) then a shallow layer of relatively cool air would remain in place at the surface which would result in cooler than forecast temperatures. Additionally, any cloud cover over the area would also help suppress temperatures Friday.

Right now the model consensus has mid 50s to low 60s across the area for Friday. These temperatures could be 5-7 degrees too warm if there are clouds and the inversion remains in place across the area.

Saturday through Monday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on several weak systems passing through the Midwest.

The global models vary a bit on timing but each suggests two weak systems about 18-24 hours apart moving through the area. The weakest of the systems would be on Saturday bringing a 20-30% chance of a rain/snow mix or snow to areas north of I-80.

The relatively stronger of the two systems arrives on Sunday with precipitation continuing Sunday night into Monday.

Storm track will determine the precipitation type but it appears that snow will be the most likely precipitation type during the day for areas north of I-80 and a rain/snow mix south of I-80. Snow would be seen across the entire area Sunday night.

The model consensus has a 20-40% percent chance of precipitation Sunday with a 30-40% percent chance Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 439 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

The signal for LLWS has become weaker over the past 6 hrs and may not even be 25 knots but will continue to include the potential up through 15z/24. Nocturnal inversion will break 14z-16z/24 with wind gusts ramping up to 30-35 knots ahead of the approaching cold front. Cold frontal passage after 18z/24 will veer winds to the northwest. After 00z/25 winds to slowly diminish but gusts up to 20 knots will still be possible through 12z/25.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.