textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The weather pattern will remain fairly active this week as northwest flow aloft develops. A warming trend will be seen the first half of the week followed by a cooling trend.

- There is considerable uncertainty regarding track and potential impacts around a clipper system during the Thursday into Friday time frame.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 152 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Low clouds will slowly clear from west to east late this afternoon and evening. High clouds from the next system may slow down the loss of low clouds for roughly the eastern half until or after sunset.

Clouds will be on the increase again late tonight/Monday morning as a weak upper level disturbance approaches from the Plains.

On Monday once the disturbance passes, clouds will begin to break up again during the afternoon hours. Southerly flow that develops tonight and continues into Monday should help boost temperatures to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 152 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Monday night Assessment...a certainty (>95% confidence) of dry conditions and above normal temperatures

Southerly flow will continue Monday night ahead of the first of two cold fronts. The southerly flow will keep lows well above normal and the lack of a focusing mechanism means that dry conditions will be seen.

Tuesday through Wednesday Assessment...low (10-20%) risk of precipitation

A passing clipper system on Tuesday will push the first of two cold fronts through the area. Ahead of the front Tuesday well above normal temperatures will be seen.

Moisture is lacking and the forcing with the front is also weak. Thus areal coverage of precipitation will be quite isolated. Timing of the front looks to be during the afternoon/evening. The weak forcing and lack of moisture is resulting in a 15-20 percent chance of rain. Although there is a risk of rain showers, 85 percent of the area will remain dry Tuesday afternoon/evening.

On Wednesday the stronger of the two cold fronts will move through the area. Due to the cooler temperatures and the front being stronger, the potential for precipitation is a bit higher. However, like the first front, a large majority of the area will remain dry. Right now the model consensus has a 20-30 percent chance of rain or snow showers.

Winds will be a concern on Wednesday given the strength of the cold advection taking place. Winds may gust up to 35 mph during the late morning and afternoon hours.

Wednesday night Assessment...very high confidence of dry conditions and temperatures close to normal

Downward motion in the atmosphere behind the second cold front will result in dry conditions Wednesday night. The cold air being pulled down behind the front will drop temperatures to around normal for mid January. It will initially be breezy Wednesday evening with winds slowly diminishing overnight.

Thursday through Friday night Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of a clipper system. Low (<20%) confidence regarding track and overall impacts.

All global models continue to advertise a clipper system late in the week. However, since the energy that will produce this system is over the Pacific, there are disagreements regarding track and timing. Once the energy comes onshore Tuesday night and is sampled by the more dense land networks, the global models should start converging on a better sense of timing and track.

During this same time frame, heights aloft are building along the west coast with a trof developing over the eastern half of the CONUS. Such a set-up would suggest a more southern track to the system that what is being suggested by the various global models. The key appears to be how much the west coast upper ridge builds before the energy tops the ridge and dives southeast.

The various ensemble members from the global models show most solutions passing well to the north of the area indicating not much in the way of precipitation. The EPS, however, does have two ensemble members that take a track across the area.

The ECMWF-AIFS shows less than 0.10 QPF for this system while the IAGFS is drier with QPF under 0.05 inches. The NBM 75-25th percentiles have a 24 hr QPF mean at or just under 0.10 inches with a max of 0.15 inches.

From the synoptic large scale picture, the models do agree that the warm advection wing of the system will provide the bulk of the QPF. The cold conveyor belt and system precipitation will be very little of the overall QPF. Interestingly, the deterministic ECMWF lags an inverted trof across the area, which if correct, would allow light snow to persist across the area into Friday night and potentially Saturday.

Given the high uncertainty regarding timing and track, the model consensus has a 20 to 40 percent chance of snow Thursday night into Friday with the better chances along/north of I-80. For Friday evening, the model consensus has a 20 to 30 percent chances of snow mainly along/east of the Mississippi.

Saturday/Saturday night Assessment...low (<20%) confidence on precipitation

The sensible weather for Saturday into Saturday evening is being influenced by the CMC/ECMWF deterministic solutions. As mentioned earlier the ECMWF keeps an inverted trof across the area that continues into Saturday. The CMC is similar to the ECMWF but delays the passage of the inverted trof until Saturday evening.

As a result, the model consensus has a 15 percent chance of snow for areas east of the Mississippi. Even if these model solutions are correct, much of the area will remain dry.

Sunday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on dry and colder than normal temperatures

The model consensus has a modified arctic high that starts building into the area Sunday indicating dry and colder than normal temperatures. Atmospheric profiles across the area are suggesting an inversion aloft. If correct, there may be much more clouds than what the model consensus is currently depicting.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 503 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with main aviation concerns revolving around LLWS. Between 05-10z, we will see a southwesterly shear around 40 KTs. After 10z, we expect these conditions to improve. Otherwise, we will be left with passing mid-high clouds through the forecast period, with southwest winds around 10 KTs.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.