textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Wednesday. Very warm temperatures, low humidity, cured/dry vegetation, and strong gusty winds will result in a very high fire danger from the late morning through the evening. Avoid any outdoor burning!

- Isolated to scattered (20-40%) showers tonight with a chance (20%) of thunderstorms; small hail possible in storms.

- Potential for a couple rounds of showers and t-storms Thursday, with any afternoon/early evening round possibly having an early season severe threat, mainly in Illinois.

- As cooler air arrives, potential for some snow late Thursday night into Friday morning; currently looks low impact.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Tonight: An increasing low-level jet with 850mb winds up to 60+ kts will advect warm/moist air into the region leading to increasing elevated instability to several hundred J/kg. CAMs continue to show a lower coverage scenario regarding showers and storms, but given the degree of elevated instability and ample shear, hail is certainly possible with any stronger cores that develop. Temperatures will generally hold in the 50s to upper 40s overnight thanks to the strong S to SW flow (25-30+ mph), which is 10-20 degrees above normal highs for this time of year!

Wednesday: The dry slot of a potent low pressure system will punch through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois early in the day, leading to clearing skies and notable dry air advection into the region with surface dewpoints falling into the 20s/teens (as ambient temps warm into the 60s by the afternoon). This is quite an unusual setup for so early in the season. Forecast soundings show boundary layer mixing up to near 800mb or higher where winds are 45+ kts. Therefore plenty of momentum available for downward momentum transfer and expect widespread gusts 30-40 mph through the day, and potential for near Wind Advisory level gusts (45+ mph) especially north of I-80. However, will hold off on a wind headline for now and let the next shift re- evaluate with plenty of time still before the strong winds develop Wednesday AM. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for tomorrow for the majority of the outlook area with the exception of the far southern tier of counties (see the Fire Weather section for details). Wednesday night should be mainly dry with clouds eventually on the increase as a shortwave ejects from the Rockies and induces cyclogenesis across portions of the Central Plains. Lows will be cooler, particularly north of I-80 on the cool side of the boundary with lows in the 30s while across the south likely staying in the 40s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 439 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The forecast pattern for Thursday shows the last day of significant warmth of this current stretch, with a strong short wave protruding east-northeastward over the area by Thursday evening. Guidance agrees on a deep surface reflection, with a ~992 mb low forecast over/near southeast Iowa by late afternoon. Prior to this, an arc or two of showers and possibly elevated thunderstorms would be supported by strengthening warm air advection aloft and moisture transport and are hinted at by long range CAMs.

Of greater interest would be any renewed development just east of the surface low along what is probable to be a triple point/warm front. A narrow axis of dew points in the 50s are forecast along this, and with temperatures in the 60s that could support boundary layer-rooted convective initiation. The end of CAM runs tease that with 20-40% coverage along the boundary, and such coverage makes sense in this setup. While not the pattern for widespread coverage and there certainly is a scenario where nothing does initiate due to such a narrow low- level moist axis, there would be a conditional threat of supercells with any mid-late afternoon development. Supporting that idea is that the forecast low-level pattern actually resembles the February 27, 2024 setup quite closely, where there were scattered supercells in a similar setup at this time of year (albeit not exactly one-for-one). Combining that with other analog / pattern comparison tools also hinting at some lower-end conditional severe risk, supports a mention of possible severe (risk level 1 of 5) which SPC has done in their Day 3 Outlook.

Cold advection behind the attendant cold front later Thursday night into Friday morning will foster the potential for rain to mix with or change to a few hours of snow with any wrap-around or deformation zone brushing of the area. Marginal temps and warm ground will work to negate any accums, thus minimal if any impacts. It is worth noting that winds concurrent to any snow have increasing potential to be gusting 30-40 mph.

Mainly dry weather and more seasonable conditions are expected for the weekend into early next week with predominantly northwest flow aloft.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A strong area of low pressure tracking from the Central Plains into southern Minnesota will lead to gusty SE to WSW winds locally into Wednesday AM, along with a period of LLWS tonight with 45 kt winds at 2000 ft AGL (out of the SSW). There could be a few isolated showers tonight with instability increasing aloft and possibly a few rumbles of thunder -- overall shower coverage looks to remain low (10-30%). A period of MVFR ceilings are possible at DBQ tonight but have low confidence at this time with a better potential off to the east/northeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The combination of dry antecedent conditions, very warm temperatures, low humidity, dead/dormant vegetation, and gusty WSW winds between 30-40 mph will result in a very high fire danger from the mid/late morning through the evening. The forecast GFDI peaks in the extreme category along and north of Highway 34 and in the very high category to the south. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged as any fires that start would spread rapidly and be very difficult to control.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record warm lows for today, February 17th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years

Record warm lows for February 18th

Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089- 098-099. IL...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026. MO...None.