textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will fluctuate through the remainder of the week, but will generally remain above normal. Friday continues to be forecast as the mildest day of the week, with temperatures in the 50s to 60s.

- Elevated fire threat tomorrow for southeast portions of our forecast area.

- Active pattern sets up Wednesday and beyond, as northwesterly flow ushers in some systems. The first is set to come through Wednesday night, bringing the potential for light accumulating snow. Precipitation chances then return this weekend and beyond.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Surface high pressure will work it's way east of the area tonight, with LLVL winds shifting southerly. Increasing southerly flow will result in increasing cloud cover tonight, largely mid-high clouds. Early in the night, mostly clear skies will allow for temperatures to rapidly decrease, especially in our northwest prior to clouds moving in and moderating. Much of the area will remain in the teens, with light winds. Thus, wind chills won't be as cold as we have seen over the last few nights. Increasing southerly flow through the night and into Tuesday morning will not only result in further cloud cover, but will also lead to a notable increase in temperatures. Temperatures are forecast to be milder than we saw over the weekend, with above normal readings expected. Currently, we are looking at temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in our far north to the low 50s in the south. Thus, a seasonally pleasant day is ahead of us. Although, LLVL dry air and gusty surface winds will result in an elevated fire danger, especially in our southeast. Main threat seems to be focused through the early afternoon hours tomorrow, but a widespread fire danger is not expected at this time. Dry conditions will prevail through the day, with <20% PoPs in our northeast, owing to the wave passing north of the area. Confidence is highest on a dry day throughout, but a light snow/rain shower cannot be ruled out in northwest IL.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 126 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Wednesday into Thursday, we are watching our next storm system approach and possibly impact the area. This system will eject off of the northern Rockies, currently forecast to bring more clipper-like weather to the area, rather than the stronger and more amplified low that was initially being shown by guidance. This decreasing trend in intensity has been noted throughout guidance and has been consistent over the last 24-36 hours. Although, while we are looking at a weaker system, we are still expecting the potential for accumulating snow. Not only has the intensity of the system trended down, but the track of the system continues to hold true to a more southerly track, which currently shows impacts being confined to Interstate 80 and locations south. The main outlier in the track forecast remains with the NAM, which shows a farther north solution with more coverage in QPF. With the remainder of guidance keeping the best chances south, will follow suit with that and keep the higher PoPs for areas south of Interstate 80. Also, with this southerly/colder track, temperature profiles would favor the main precipitation type being snow. The better chances for rain to mix in will be along/south of Highway 34. Although, confidence remains low, especially when it comes to accumulation amounts. NBM currently shows a 20-40% chance for 2" or more of snow wherever the band of snow sets up. Thus, opting to refrain from further details until guidance comes into a better consensus.

Midday Thursday and into Friday, high pressure will move through the region, with southerly flow kicking in behind it on Friday. We will see modest southwesterly flow over the area, which will result in quite the increase in temperatures. Currently, we are looking at widespread temperatures in the 50s to 60s. Temperatures have actually been trending upwards over the last couple forecast packages, pushing us even higher above normal. If we see accumulating snow Wednesday into Thursday, these forecast temperatures for Friday will be plenty warm to melt the new snowpack.

Upper level flow will remain northwesterly, which will keep us largely in cold advection and also help guide some low-amplitude waves through the region. The first wave will come through Friday night into Saturday, which will unfortunately put an end to those very mild February temperatures. Moisture remains limited, which should keep PoPs lower throughout. Although, some guidance hints at light precipitation moving through. Will opt to hold onto <20% chance PoPs in our north. Otherwise, most will remain dry. Temperatures Saturday will be cooler than the previous day, but still well above normal for some, ranging from the mid 30s in the north to near 50 in our south. Another weak wave will come through Sunday into Monday, with better return flow ahead of it. This should increase moisture enough to give more widespread Chance PoPs. Temperatures will be cooler than Saturday, with highs forecast in the 30s throughout. If we see precipitation Sunday into Monday, it should largely be in the form of light snow, with rain mixing in in our south.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Generally a VFR TAF cycle with just sfc wind direction change and speed increase the main factors. Generally going to a light and variable sfc wind regime until late tonight when a passing sfc ridge moves off and allows southerly return flow to increase into the morning. South to southwesterly sfc winds may then gust up to 30 KTs by late Tuesday morning. Before the sfc winds start to gust from downward momentum transfer mid to late Tuesday morning, there may be a period of LLVL wind shear late tonight into Tuesday morning as southwesterly LLJ flow at 2K FT AGL reaches at least 40 KTs. High clouds will thicken in from the west overnight into Tuesday, with a thick mid deck established in the afternoon from top-down saturation. A low chance for light precip, either rain or wintry mix to skirt along the DBQ VCNTY by late Tue afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.