textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures for mid July are forecast through the period with gradually warming of daytime highs potentially (40-60% chance) into the low-to-mid 90s by Wednesday of next week. Limited humidity with dew points likely (60-90% chance) in the mid-60s to low 70s should keep heat indices below 100 degrees. - The forecast is mostly dry through the period with low chances of precipitation late next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

High pressure is moving in steadily today, with northeast winds and decreasing humidity. Thus, we're are seeing mainly clear to partly cloudy skies and no rain on the radar today. Dew point values are now in the lower to mid 60s, with northeast winds at 5 to 15 mph. Certainly a more pleasant day than recent humid times is found area- wide.

With dry air and clear skies in place tonight, lows in the lower 60s are expected in all locations. The light winds will continue Sunday, as we begin an extended period of time with both surface and upper level high pressure in place. This regime will feature a gradually warming air mass, light winds, and plenty of sunshine. While there is no gulf moisture advection into the region, we are at peak season for crop ET, so dew points are expected to gradually increase to the upper 60s to low 70s the next several days. For Sunday, highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected, followed by lows Sunday night, under high pressure in the lower to mid 60s. &&

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Both Monday and Tuesday will feature sunshine and highs rising to the upper 80s to lower 90s, with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This short term weather will linger well into the extended, as both deterministic and Ensembles are in good agreement in building ridging at the surface and aloft across the Plains Sunday night through midweek. A closed low in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and a closed 500 MB 600 dam contour in the northern Plains form a Rex Block across the central US through the middle of next week. The position of the high through Wednesday would keep dewpoints in the 60s through midweek. Temperatures will gradually modify through the week with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and low temperatures warming from the mid 60s to the lower 70s after Wednesday. Dewpoints in the 60s/low 70s will limit heat indices to the mid to upper 90s next week.

Beyond Wednesday, models begin to disagree as the GFS shifts the high pressure to the east of the area while other models and the GFS Ensemble Mean retrograde the Rex Block to the west. This is bringing low chances of showers to the area Thursday and Friday for different reasons. The operational GFS solution allows for a storm system to approach the area from the west while the retrograde of the Rex Block brings the storm track closer to the area allowing a shortwave digging into the eastern Great Lakes to bring a cold front into the area and produce light chances of showers ands storms. The retrograding Rex Block solution appears to be favored by models and the NBM and think that this is the more likely scenario given the tendencies for blocking to retrograde with time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

High pressure is forecast to remain draped across the region through this TAF period. This will bring VFR conditions to the area. Diurnally driven cumulus are expected at mainly KMLI amd KBRL on Sunday with lower possibility at KDBQ. MVFR visibility is possible (10 to 20%)in fog between 9 and 14 UTC but confidence is low in this occurring so it was once again left out of the TAFs for this issuance. Light and variable winds can be expected overnight with easterly winds of 4 to 7 knots during the late morning through the afternoon before becoming light and variable again.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.