textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy, very warm and dry conditions Friday will result in an high end elevated fire weather risk mainly south and east of a line from Manchester, IA to Vinton, IA. If temperatures are warmer than forecast and humidity levels drop further, the probability of critical fire weather conditions would increase.

- Split flow over the CONUS that favors northwest flow will be seen through the weekend. Weak systems in the flow will bring the prospects of some precipitation to the area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Observational trends indicate the snow has essentially ended across the area with some lingering flurries possible until sunrise. Although low clouds have formed, ceilings are generally 3 kft AGL or higher with some pockets around 2 kft AGL. Thus it appears the risk for freezing drizzle, while not zero, is around 10 percent and dropping.

Clouds will persist into the morning hours and slowly break up during the afternoon. With southerly flow developing high temperatures will climb to around 5 degrees above normal.

Continued southerly flow tonight along with some passing clouds will help keep overnight temperatures warmer than normal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Friday/Friday night Assessment...A certainty (>98%) of elevated fire weather conditions

Windy and very warm conditions will be seen across the area which will boost high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal. Record highs are all in the 70s and have a 70% chance of remaining untouched. Refer to the climate section for more specific information.

The model trends on temperatures has been a positive delta the past few days. The NBM has a 10-20% probability of temperatures exceeding 70 from I-80 down to an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line. South of this line the probability of exceeding 70 degrees is a 25-45%.

With winds potentially gusting up to 35 mph across most of the area and low humidity levels, there is a fire weather risk for much of the area. Refer to the fire weather section for more information.

Winds will quickly diminish around sunset Friday as a dry cool front moves through the area. Attention then turns to the first of several systems moving through the Midwest.

Saturday/Saturday night Assessment...high (>80%) of a system. Low to medium (20-40%) confidence on placement of precipitation

All models agree on a weak system moving rapidly through the Midwest during the day Saturday with Saturday night being dry. The question is how far south will the precipitation be across the area.

From a large scale perspective, the best forcing and moisture convergence is along the IA/MN border east southeast into southern Wisconsin. Right now the model consensus (due to the more southern track of the GFS/GEFS) has 20-50% chances for mainly snow across the area with the highest pops north of Highway 30.

However, isentropic data combined with the forcing and forecast soundings indicate a very sharp cutoff to the precipitation on the southern edge. Thus the southern edge may be close to Highway 30 with areas south of I-80 remaining dry.

Snowfall amounts look to be under an inch with an inch or two just north of the Highway 20 corridor. All of this snow looks to occur in a 6-8 hour time frame.

Saturday night will be dry with temperatures at or slightly below normal.

Sunday/Sunday night Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of another system in the Midwest. Low (<25%) confidence on storm track.

The second of several systems will move through the Midwest Sunday into Sunday night. However, the track of the system is uncertain.

Dprog/dt of the system has been showing a slow but steady southward trend of the track the past several days. The southward trend appears attributed to two features; 1) the strength/position of the Canadian high from the Great Lakes into the upper Midwest and 2) the confluent flow aloft due to the split flow pattern across the CONUS.

Right now the model consensus has 25-60% chances for snow Sunday into Sunday night. These pops are supported by the mean of the QPF solutions of the ensemble members of the models. Interestingly, the ECMWF-AIFS has areas essentially north of an Ottumwa, IA to Galesburg, IL line dry. The AIGFS is a bit further north but has areas along/north of I-80 dry.

Given this I suspect a trend toward dry conditions across the northern half of the area over the coming days with the pops across the southern half slowly being shunted southward.

Monday through Wednesday Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on additional systems. Low (<20%) confidence regarding track and potential impacts.

After a dry Monday the model consensus brings two additional systems through the Midwest; the first Monday night into Tuesday and the second on Wednesday.

The Great Lakes high will have weakened and moved to New England by Monday night but there is still some confluent flow aloft across the area. Thus the overall track of the Monday night/Tuesday system is in question.

Dprog/dt of the models shows a gradual southward trend with several models. With a high probability of the system passing south of the area, there should be a fairly sharp cutoff to the precipitation on the northern side of the system.

Interestingly the mean of the ECMWF ensembles is more aggressive than the GFS ensemble mean. However, both are favoring Missouri into southern Illinois for the better QPF.

The model consensus has 20-30% chances for mainly snow or a rain/snow mix across the area. I suspect these pops will slowly decrease with time over the next 3 days.

The second system for Wednesday may be more interesting.

The models show a respectable shortwave ejecting from an upper low over the southwest CONUS and moving toward the area. Unlike the Monday night/Tuesday system, the mid-week system has two favorable aspects for precipitation; 1) diffluence aloft and 2) a good fetch of moisture flow from the Gulf.

While the track is somewhat uncertain, the model consensus has 20- 30% chances for mainly rain Wednesday that increase to 30-50% Wednesday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 447 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Areas of MVFR CIGS will persist across eastern Iowa through 18z/26 before lifting. After 18z/26 southerly flow of 5 to 10 knots will persist through sunrise Friday. Once the inversion breaks after 15z/27, low level mechanical turbulence will be seen as winds gust 30-35 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph combined with very dry conditions and humidity levels dropping to near 30 percent will result in an elevated to near critical fire weather risk for Friday.

The area at risk is south and east of a line from Manchester, IA to Vinton, IA.

The overall delta trends for temperatures/humidity levels have been positive/negative over the past 2 days. If temperatures are warmer than forecast or humidity levels drop further then GFDI values would be in the critical level and necessitate fire weather headlines.

CLIMATE

Issued at 248 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Record highs for February 27th

Burlington, IA.......77 in 2024 Cedar Rapids, IA.....72 in 2024 Dubuque, IA..........72 in 2024 Moline, Il...........79 in 2024

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.