textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- The active pattern looks to continue for much of the upcoming week with the local area in the battle ground between the heat dome and northern flanking storm track. This will make for storm chances in or near the local area every day of the upcoming week. Marginal to Slight Risk areas ride across the region through at least Wednesday.

- Depending on storms and cloud cover, much of the area will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria through mid week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Today...Besides some festering elevated showers and a few storms from the current northwest MO activity drifting acrs the southern third to half of the DVN CWA this morning to midday, upper level short wave ridging pressing acrs the area may allow for the DVN CWA to be in-between the main action zones. That being said, ongoing 30- 40 KT effective shear profiles and another day of very high CAPEs building by late afternoon suggests an isolated strong to severe storm will still be possible today into this evening, especially with lingering quasi-stationary weak west-to-east oriented sfc front undulating acrs IA into northern IL. If something goes near the front, all modes of severe possible including tornadoes. But again an overall lower POP day in between the better forcing and mid level jet streaks.

Temps will be challenging today taking into account convective debris, weak sfc flow, and boundaries acrs the area. In general will go with a lot of mid to upper 80s, and sfc DPTs in the mid to upper 70s. This will make for heat index readings from the mid 90s to near 100 degrees, with isolated pockets over 100. For now this a bit too marginal for a widespread Heat Advisory issuance now, but if we get more sun for longer than expected helping ambient temps to warm 1-3 degrees more, a short fuse Heat Advisory may still be needed especially along and south of I-80.

Tonight...Much of the evening may be capped, quiet, and storm free, but eyes will be on the next upstream short wave and several MCS generation parameters coming together out acrs the northern plains and MO RVR Valley. Timing and propagation path of the resultant storm complex still uncertain, but there could be a feature rolling into the western or northwestern DVN CWA just before dawn Tue morning. A few slower model solutions are a bit slower with the MCS arriving more mid Tue morning or so. But in any case even with the morning timing this feature may be capable of severe weather and heavy rainfall. An earlier arrival and exit may have the feature really going severe later Tue morning and into the day off to the east and southeast of the local area. A later arrival Tue morning will mean more trouble for the home team and damaging winds here. Will have to watch further runs in handling the parent wave of this feature for more confidence/certainty.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Tuesday...May initially be active if the Monday night-Tue morning shortwave and MCS verifies, but after that feature exits the rest of Tue and Tue night may be mainly dry or at risk for only an isolated storm. Current NBM loaded temps and DPTs are hot and very humid for Tuesday and easily supportive of heat headlines. But again there is much uncertainty on convective trends, and cloud debris/storm outflow interfering with the ambient temps and how much afternoon time there would be for recovery. Will still message the potential but make heat headline issuance a day by day process for now.

Wednesday through Sunday...Medium range ensembles and upper jet patterns show the main upper ridge bulge trying to press it's way eastward acrs the southern plains and low to mid MS RVR Valley mid to late week. This process may try to shunt the main storm track more off just to the north of the local area, or if it stalls some keep us in the bullseye of continued daily ring of fire late week and even into the weekend. The temperature battle will continue as well with LLVL baroclinicity and thermal ribbon wavering acrs the region for high heat or not so bad depending on the daily flux. Will keep the idea if this pattern holds, there could be quite a bit of rainfall build up over the week from the west central plains, acrs IA/IL and over to the eastern OH RVR Valley. It's still early, but currently Thu night looks like a potentail heavy rainfall MCS night in the area especially south of I-80.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Brief MVFR conditions due to patchy fog is possible at CID/DBQ prior to 13z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at least through 19z at all terminals. A weak surface front oriented west-to-east across eastern IA and northwest IL will be a focus for shower/storm development this afternoon/evening. Confidence in placement of this activity remains quite low given the recent poor performance of hi-res model guidance. Nonetheless, added PROB30 wording with this issuance at MLI/CID/DBQ to account for 20-30% chance of thunder today. Some of the stronger storms may produce some gusty erratic winds near severe limits and heavy downpours. Winds away from any storms, will be light and variable under 10kts for much of the day.

Another shortwave over the Plains to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern IA/southern MN late in the period and track east southeast towards eastern IA, likely leading to deteriorating conditions late and just beyond this TAF cycle.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.