textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures and generally quiet weather is expected through the upcoming weekend. One exception may be a period of scattered showers and isolated storms late Thursday night into Friday.

- Will have to monitor the northward advance of the remnants of the Gulf tropical system Isaias late in the weekend and early next week, but it should steer mainly clear of the local area.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Tonight...Sfc ridge lobe on track to engulfing the area from the northwest, and besides a few wisps of cirrus we should have a clear night with sfc wind decouple. With drying sfc DPTs, will undercut the loaded NBM low temps by at least a few degrees making for a lot of upper 40s to low 50s. But that may not be cool enough in some locations with several guidance suggesting lows in the mid to upper 40s will be more common. But will bank on some more CI streaming out of the NW high plains and down acrs portions of the CWA late tonight. Won't mention fog but there should be some in the favored valleys.

Thursday...A classic fall high pressure day(big bubble, no trouble) with light sfc wind regime and sunny skies. After cool start to the day, dry air/nice diurnal swing to the low to mid 70s still looks on track. Thursday night...Latest run model solutions continue to suggest that as the LLVL ridge departs off to the east, an embedded short wave in steering northwesterly flow aloft will combine with an increasing LLJ of 25-35 KTs with some THTA-e advection, enough to produce an elevated wing of convergent WAA type showers and even some embedded thunder acrs portions of the MO RVR Valley and into central IA late Thu night into Friday morning. The models have slowed and shifted a bit west with the initiation, as well as how far east it can make it through Friday morning battling lingering ridging acrs the southern GRT LKS/OH RVR Valley. The latest consensus now suggests most of the CWA may be dry through 12z Friday morning, before the development out west drift acrs Through late Friday morning. Will adjust the loaded POPs through 12z Friday accordingly. Low temps will range quite a bit from the northeast to the southwest by Friday morning.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Friday...The continued ongoing convergent LLJ processes will look to continue to be enough to keep some showers festering acrs the area for much of the day until lifting off to the north and east Friday evening. Fcst soundings and profiles suggest a nice plume of 6.5+ C/km lapse rates and mid layer MUCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg to support some thunder. The latest ECMWF runs continue to suggest the Friday activity will occur north of I-80 or even Hwy 30. A LLVL warm frontal retreat and more clouds/precip in the north will make for a challenging temp forecast Friday and there could easily be at least a 10 degree difference from the south to north.

Saturday and Sunday...Digging longer wave upper trof acrs the Pacific Northwest and ridging amplifying up the GRT LKS(aided by northward advancing subsidence fields off approaching Isaias) will result in warming southwesterlies acrs the MID CONUS and toward the GRT LKS. Saturday will be a full blown warm sector day with breezy southerly winds and increasing thicknesses that support highs in the 80s for much of the area, with mid 80s a good possibility. This may be a day of increased cropland fire danger risk depending on humidity trends. Then eyes turn to the tropical system from the Gulf and the path it may take getting drawn northward inland. How close this system can make it to the local area by Sunday is still at question, but the latest trends don't vary too much from older model runs. Still a scenario to watch of course, as the local area sure does not need the precip off such a system.

Monday through Wednesday...Depending on what or how the above system behaves, early next week otherwise may be characterized by warm upper ridging and well above normal temp regime for Monday. Upper ridge retrograde with a passing cyclone pressing into the GRT LKS will look to allow for a decent cold frontal passage and following lower level Canadian high pressure with a cool push dumping down through the area by Tuesday. This mid week cool down will be short lived as the upstream upper trof and associated lower level cyclogenesis blossoming and try too eject out toward the upper midwest. If this unfolds this way, unsettled weather looks on tap late next Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

High confidence VFR weather will continue with light winds as a dry air mass remains in the region, as high pressure becomes centered over top of eastern Iowa/northwest Illinois late tonight. This will result in light winds or calm conditions through the period, with visibilities remaining excellent in the dry air. Any clouds will be high, above 20kft, and not impact aviation in any way.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.