textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures likely for much of next week, with highs in the 40s/50s.

- Active pattern returns late week, with several chances of precipitation. Turning colder over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

This afternoon a shortwave was moving north of the area with the better CVA across northern MN and WI. Decent height falls led to H85 LLJ of 55 to 60 knots moving across our northern CWA. The terminus of this jet was north of the CWA, suggesting the best ascent for precip will stay north of the area. While moisture increases across our north with this WAA, our 18z sounding shows a rather shallow saturated area. Otherwise, dry air will also limit any chance for precip across our north. Have continued to go with a dry forecast with some wind as the wave moves to our north.

Tonight, we look to be a smidge warmer with the WAA across the area and high clouds. This means most of the area will remain at or above freezing. Some guidance has fog developing, however the NAM models, seem to be overdone. Think some reduced visibilties in the 4 to 5sm range are possible. Unless we get dense fog, which doesn't seem likely, any fog in temperatures below zero will likely not amount to freezing fog. As a result, have removed mention of this from the forecast and HWO.

Tomorrow in the wake of the shortwave, low level flow turns SW and even warmer H85 temps move into the area. WAA brings temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s across the CWA. The main question is do we see sun. Guidance suggests yes, but with this pattern repeating itself, I think we will end up being mostly cloudy again tomorrow.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

The pattern remains active through the long term period as yet another wave moves through the flow Monday night into Tuesday. With unsettled flow through Tuesday and a closing wave Tuesday night. The flow then turns to the SW as warmer, more moist air, starts to advect north from the Gulf. At this point, guidance differs on the momentum fields and thus forecast confidence decreases. That said, the pattern does support cyclogenesis across the region bringing chance of precip to the area. After this, cooler more January like air moves into the area.

Looking to the first system, temperatures tomorrow will remain above freezing. The shortwave moving through appears to be just ahead of increasing moisture at the surface. While the height falls and vort advection look robust enough for ascent, a mismatch in moisture likely limits our overall precip chances until the wave moves closer to the effective boundary to our NE. This is why schc pops are in the forecast for NW IL. This will likely be all rain if it does occur. Low clouds look to move into the area again on Tuesday suggesting another cloudy day. Weak ripples through the flow continue into Tuesday evening. The final wave pushes through and we have zonal flow for Wednesday. This may be the best day this week to actually see the sun again.

To end the week a robust system looks to be on the horizon. There looks to be two waves, one across the far SW US and another one that starts to dig south into the trof across the western CONUS. A third wave is quick on the heels of the northern wave digging south into the northern Plains. How these waves interact will drive the weather the end of this week. Solutions include faster more open waves and some that are more closed with cyclogensis near us. A lot to hammer out, but this one looks like its not a clipper and could lead to go precipitation across the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions to start the period, with LLWS impacting the terminals until 09z. Attention then turns to the evolution of low level stratus out of southern MN and possible fog after daybreak. NBM probabilities for vsbys <3 miles have continued to trend upwards as well as some hi-res guidance this evening and have kept IFR fog in the TAFs at CID/DBQ after 14z. The main question is how far south the IFR stratus will reach and current thinking it will impact CID/DBQ for much of the day today. A persistent inversion on forecast soundings support this notion and I am hesitant to improve conditions given recent track record of model guidance in previous days. Westerly winds to turn southeasterly this afternoon.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.