textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant travel impacts expected from a winter storm Sunday night into Monday with very strong winds creating blowing snow leading blizzard conditions impacting the Monday AM commute.

- There is a Marginal (level 1 out 5) and Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe storms on Sunday.

- Colder Monday and Tuesday, before warmer temperatures return by the end of the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Significant storm system continues as forecast for the area tomorrow into Monday. A severe threat tomorrow during the day will transition to very strong winds and a blizzard for most of the area overnight into Monday morning. DO NOT ASSUME IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL BE DIRECTLY TIED TO HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS! This system, with its 50 to 60 mph gusts while snow is falling will lead to whiteout conditions. This paired with freezing temperatures after rain washes away all of the treatment on area roads, will lead to significant impacts even in areas forecast to get as little as 3 inches of snow!

Severe Weather Threat

A High Shear Low CAPE (HSLC) tornado setup looks likely for us tomorrow. The warm sector of the surface low will move into most of the area with temperatures reaching into the 50s and low 60s. Dewpoint temps will increase as well. At the same time, strong low-level shear is expected with some hodographs exhibiting almost a half circle structure. Shear is not going to be the issue tomorrow. The main issue is going to be instability. SBCAPE, and sfc CIN from synoptic models suggests parcels will not be from the sfc, limiting a tornado threat. However, CAMs depict 100 J/kg CAPE in the 0-3km range. This is perfect for HSLC tornadoes. As such, think tomorrow's severe risk, mainly late morning into the early afternoon is mostly a tornado threat. If we can get wind to the surface, we will likely get tornadoes. This will quickly move to the east during the afternoon. However, strong synoptic forcing will continue to bring rain to the area until the CAA brings cooler air into the area.

Blizzard Threat and High Wind

Sub 990 hPa (more like mid- 980s) surface low is forecast to track across the CWA overnight Sunday into Monday as a TROWAL slides in place during the same time. There is about a 25 to 30 hPa surface gradient across Iowa at this time. This gradient is very strong and will result in winds similar if not stronger than yesterday morning across the area. These gusts will frequently be near 60 mph and could reach 70 mph in some instances! As such, a high wind warning was issued for Iowa and northern MO. Winds will be a little lower across IL and subsequent Wind Advisories may be needed.

As the colder air transition the rain to snow from the NW to the SE through the evening tomorrow, air temps are expected to drop below freezing and into the teens and 20s. This will aide to freeze any liquid on area roadways that are not treated. Strong forcing in the DGZ along with strong synoptic forcing from 00z to 09z will result in snow across the area. The HREF only have 1" an hr rates at a 20 to 30% probability across the northern CWA. With the strong winds, we expect fracturing of dendrites and thus lower snowfall amounts overall. Guidance remains all over the place on amounts, however we have high confidence in the highest along the highway 20 corridor. 50 to 60 mph wind gusts with snow falling at 0.5 inches an hour will likely result in whiteout conditions. Disorientation in the whiteout conditions overnight will be dangerous! Do not travel unless you have to!

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the period. Another fast moving storms system will move across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will bring a chance of snow to the area. Snowfall amounts will be light with this storm system.

After a cold start to the week, warm up is forecast to begin across the area on Wednesday with temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s by the end of the week.

There is another subtle shortwave in the flow toward the end of the week but there is disagreement on the timing and location of this wave and its impact on the area. Currently, the forecast is dry with the better forcing and moisture to our north.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

TAFs are VFR to start the period ahead of a powerful storm system that will move across the area on Sunday. Ceilings will gradually lower across the area through 12 UTC Sunday with gusty east winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. These winds will shift to the south by 12 UTC with the potential for gusts up to 30 knots. Rain showers are possible after 12 UTC with conditions deteriorating to MVFR. Placed a prob30 at all TAF sites for tsra with lower confidence on the timing and placement of these storm system.

Rain showers will continue after 15 UTC with conditions lowering to IFR to possibly LIFR during the afternoon. Winds will turn to the west as a cold front moves across the area from west to east between 18 and 24 UTC. Speeds will quickly increase during the afternoon also from the west to east behind this front. Gusts between 30 to 40 knots are possible with the highest gusts by the end of the period at KCID and KDBQ. Cold air moving into the area will cause precipitation to change over to snow between 21 and 24 UTC with the exact timing at each still uncertain at this time.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...High Wind Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. Blizzard Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for IAZ040>042-051>053-063>065-067-076>078-087>089-098-099. Blizzard Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for IAZ054-066-068. IL...Blizzard Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for ILZ001-002-007-009-015-016-024. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for ILZ017-018. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for ILZ025- 026-034-035. MO...High Wind Warning from 1 PM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for MOZ009-010.