textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front passing through the area this morning will bring the threat of isolated to scattered showers and storms to he area this morning.

- Dry and seasonal weather will continue through the remainder of the week.

- Pattern is forecast to become more active late this weekend into early next week, with increasing chances for showers and storms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A shortwave is forecast to dive southeastward from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan early this morning into northern Ohio by 12 UTC Thursday. This storm system will drag a cold front across the area this morning. At 2 AM there is a cluster of thunderstorms moving southeastward across southwestern Wisconsin and if it keeps on its current track it will pass to the north and east of our far northwest Illinois Counties by 12 UTC Wednesday.

Moisture is very limited and there is weak forcing across the area to focus shower and storms development with this storm system but decided to keep 20 percent chances for showers and storms across the area north of Interstate 80 through 15 UTC/10 AM CDT to account for some instability across the area this morning. If showers and storm to occur, rainfall amounts will be very light.

Winds will switch to the west then northwest behind the front by 10 AM. Behind the front on Wednesday, there wind gusts up to 20 knots and think that sustained speeds of 10 to 15 MPH and gusts up to 25 MPH late this morning and afternoon. The gusty northwest will help lower dewpoints this afternoon to the lower to mid 60s.

High pressure builds back into the area this evening with clearing skies. Dry air advection will keep lower dewpoint air across the area with overnight low temperatures dropping into the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Thursday through Friday night, the upper ridge over the Central CONUS is forecast to slowly shift eastward and flatten out due to shortwave energy passing through the flow to our north. This will result in high pressure moving across the area at the surface and aloft through the end pf the week, leading to quiet and seasonal weather. Temperatures will remain in the 80s, with lower humidity and mostly clear skies. Winds will also remain light and variable through this timeframe, bringing quite the pleasant end to the work week.

Saturday and beyond, the upper ridge finally gets pushed east of the area. With high pressure to the east, the flow will turn to the south and draw warm air and moisture northward into the area into early next week. Upper level flow will generally be zonal to southwesterly, which will put us near the main storm track. Thus, if this pattern holds true, it looks like we are heading into a potentially active stretch of weather late this weekend and into next week. Global models are in general agreement on chances for precipitation, with some differences in the timing and track of these individual shortwaves. Thus, some things will need to get ironed out as we get closer. Although, NBM does introduce daily PoPs (20-40%) Sunday into the middle of next week. It is too soon to determine any severe threat with these shortwaves.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A storm system is forecast to move southeastward across the area overnight from northwest to southeast and pull a cold front across the area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front but confidence is low on the placement of these showers and storms. Used a prob30 for MVFR conditions in showers to account for this from 7 to 10 UTC. A brief period of MVFR visibilities is expected along the front with the potential for fog development. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds will turn from the south ahead of the front to the northwest behind the front by 15 UTC.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.