textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- An active pattern develops this afternoon, lasting through Saturday, bringing two rounds of precipitation to the area. Some thunderstorms are also possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours, with an outside chance of a strong to severe storm east of the Mississippi River.

- Some accumulating snow is possible Friday night through Saturday, with a 20-60% chance of one inch of accumulations over most of the area

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 333 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Our well-advertised active pattern begins today as our first of two systems that will bring precipitation over the next few days to our region moves in later today. The main driver for these two systems is a longwave upper-level trough that has developed over the western CONUS early this morning, per the GOES-East mid-level water vapor imagery. A surface low currently developing around the OK Panhandle region will quickly lift northeastward today, translating over our region by this evening. Confidence remains high that the precipitation types should be largely rain with this system as impressive theta-e advection will accompany this low, meaning well above average heat and moisture for early January. Pwat values in excess of an inch are still progged by the HREF ensemble, which is above the daily maximum per the SPC sounding climatology for DVN, so some decent rainfall is expected with this system. HREF probability- matched mean QPF values show most locations to see between 0.5" to 1.5" - highest for areas northwest of a Dubuque, IA to Williamsburg, IA line. This could pose some ice jam flooding issues, as well. Please see the Hydrology section for details on river impacts.

One thing that has changed with this forecast is a more widespread potential of thunderstorms. SPC's latest Day 1 convective outlook continues to have a general thunderstorm risk CWA-wide, with a sliver of Hancock and McDonough counties in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5 severe risk). Convective parameter space continues to show meager instability (<500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but shear profiles appear to be quite strong, especially with a 50-60+ kt southerly LLJ ahead of the surface low, and dew points in the lower to middle 50s along and east of the Mississippi River (very high for this time of the year!). Latest CAMs show higher potential for severe weather to our south and east, but if the surface low track continues to shift northwest like the last several runs of the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles have suggested, this strong to severe threat could be shifted farther north. The main hazards with any strong storms that form would be locally strong winds, and a tornado can't be ruled out entirely, although this potential is quite low.

The severe threat will linger into the early portions of the evening hours before a dry slot builds across the area, which will expand northeastward into the early morning hours Friday. There could still be some lingering showers here and there, but they won't be as widespread as expected this afternoon. We can't rule out some light snow mixing in with the rain on the back side of the surface low closer to the cold conveyor of system sometime after midnight tonight, but as the precipitation should be in its weakening phase, we're not expecting any accumulations/impacts from the snow.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 333 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

There will be a break between the two systems Friday and Friday evening as mid-level ridging develops over the central Plains. Friday actually looks to have the potential for a pleasant day, with highs warming to the lower to middle 40s, and the latest HREF does suggest some breaks in the cloud cover for some sunshine (we'll see as the models have been struggling with cloud cover lately).

Then, the second system moves in for late Friday night through Saturday, which will be more associated with the primary upper-level trough and a potent mid-level PVA vort max. This system will be colder than the first one thanks to enhanced cold air advection and northerly flow, which will help precipitation transition from a rain/snow mix initially to all snow after sunrise Saturday morning. There still remains a lot of spread in the ensembles on how much snow will fall. Signals from both the NBM and probabilistic WSSI suggest this system to have a lower impact level locally, with the NBM probabilities of one inch of snow or more around 20 to 60%, with the highest values now being outlined over northwest Illinois. Probabilistic WSSI continues to suggest a 10-30% chance of minor impacts to travel. Something to keep an eye on, particularly those that have travel plans Saturday morning.

Eventually, precipitation will diminish late in the day Saturday, but cold air advection and cyclonic flow around the upper trough will help keep things on the cold side, with some brisk winds. Northwest winds could gust around 20 to 30 mph Saturday afternoon through the day Sunday, along with lows Saturday night falling to the middle teens to lower 20s. Coupled with the winds, wind chill values Saturday night could fall to the single digits on either side of zero, so a very cold night is expected. Highs Sunday should warm only to the upper 20s to lower 30s (actually seasonal for this time of the year!).

Monday through Wednesday next week: overall, a drier and more mild pattern develops for this time frame, thanks to longwave ridging developing over the western CONUS. There could be a few mid-level shortwaves passing through the area Tuesday and Wednesday where the NBM introduces some 10-30% chances of precipitation, but there are significant differences among the guidance on the timing and spatial coverage of this precip, so not much confidence at this time. Confidence is higher for temperatures to become milder Monday and Tuesday based on the LREF, with highs returning to the 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

An area of low pressure passing through the region today into tonight will lead to periods of rain and IFR ceilings/visibilities at times (and possibly isolated embedded thunder). The steadier rain should lift to the north during the late afternoon and evening, and then we'll be left with scattered showers into tonight. Gusty S to SE winds between 20-30 kts today will turn to the WNW this evening/tonight.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 335 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

With unfrozen ground, soils should soak up today's rainfall easily. One thing to watch for is with the rainfall combined with the warmer temperatures, there is the potential for some break up ice jam flooding, especially on the Rock River near Moline, which was over minor flood stage last week due to an ice jam. This ice jamming area was surveyed Wednesday by our office staff, and there appears to be no specific jam causing problems on the lower Rock, but rather a broad piling of ice 2-3" thick in an area upstream of a extent of stationary ice near the mouth of the Rock into the Mississippi River. Thus, our warm temperatures and rain may either shift this ice jammed area, or potentially alleviate the jam in the coming days. Either way, a shift is possible, and those with interests near the lower Rock, need to pay close attention through Sunday.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.