textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through the rest of the week and beyond, with highs in the 40s and 50s through the weekend, and 50s to low 60s by early next week.

- Precipitation chances remain limited through early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

High pressure over the Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley region will lead to quiet conditions into tonight as temps fall back into the 20s to lower 30s. A weak mid-level impulse will track across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois on Thursday, but with dry air in place most areas will not receive measurable precip. There is a low chance (~20%) for a narrow band of light rain/sprinkles Thursday AM (possibly mixed with snow or flurries) tied to a zone of mid- level WAA and Fgen. The wettest models have trace to a few hundredths of QPF (EC/NAMnest/HRRR) mainly to the west and southwest of the Quad Cities, with many other models mostly dry (RAP/HREF/CMC). Then for the rest of the day, expect well above normal temperatures once again with highs in the 40s to lower 50.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The next chance for precipitation looks to be Saturday and Saturday night (across the southern outlook area), as a southern stream wave is progged to produce a compact trough that will translate across the southern US. The question will be how far north will the precipitation shield make it as the bulk of the moisture looks to remain to the south. The NBM suggests 10-30% PoPs, mainly south of I-80. If any precipitation does manage to reach into our southern counties, temperatures will be warm enough for all rain.

As for temperatures, confidence remains high for a gradual warming trend this week into mid-week next week. A large northern stream upper ridge is progged to develop over the central CONUS for the end of the week. Prevailing southerly flow will help enhance a thermal ridge, increasing our temperatures over the next several days. A time series of the ECMWF EFI and Shift of Tails indicates values for high temperatures steadily increasing into Tuesday next week, with values increasing to 0.7 to 0.9 in our area, which indicates pretty good consensus among the EC ensembles of warmer than average temperatures. The exact extent of the warm up for early next week remains uncertain as 850 mb temperatures from the GEFS and EC ensembles differ by at least a few degrees, but there is a strong enough signal to say with confidence that temperatures will be well above average, with 850 temperatures roughly between 9 to 12 degrees C, which would be near the daily maximum for 00z/6 PM on Tuesday. Could this mean that 60+ degree F high temperatures are in play next week? The short answer is yes, but how early will we see them remains uncertain. It's possible we could see them over our south as early as Monday across our south, but at the moment, confidence remains higher for Tuesday into mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR will prevail through the period with light winds mainly under 10 kts. There is a low chance (<20%) for a few isolated showers or occasional sprinkles Thursday AM but did not include in the TAFs due to low confidence.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.