textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous cold this morning, and is likely again this evening into the overnight for parts of the area.

- Areas of drifting snow and patchy blowing snow are possible late tonight and Monday in areas that received accumulating snow of at least 1-2" recently. Concerns are mainly for drifting of snow on east too west oriented roads in open/rural areas.

- Quieter conditions with a warm up expected early to mid-week, with the fresh snow cover and extent of melting playing a pivotal role in the magnitude of the warmup.

- Chance for precipitation is trending upward for Wednesday night into Thursday. Most of the precipitation is likely to fall as rain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Clear skies, snow cover and an arctic airmass is leading to very cold temperatures ranging from around zero to 5 below currently. At these temperatures it doesn't take a lot of wind to get dangerous wind chills, and given northwest winds averaging around 10 kts with localized higher gusts 13-19 kts we're seeing wind chills as cold as 15 below to 25 below zero. This can lead to frostbite in minutes, not hours, so please be sure to bundle up in layers if you are outside and try to limit time spent outdoors, particularly this morning.

We'll see abundant sunshine today, but unfortunately temperatures will struggle to warm much as arctic high pressure builds toward the Mississippi River Valley. Highs are likely to only rebound into the single digits to around 12 degrees. Winds will diminish as well this afternoon, which should allow for wind chills to warm above criteria for most locations albeit still remaining bitter cold and mostly sub-zero.

After sunset as the high remains overhead, the strong radiational cooling setup will foster a rapid drop in temperatures. Most areas are likely to bottom out in the range of around zero to 10 below. While the winds will be light, any little puff could lead to wind chills approaching 15 below to 20 below. As a result, we've coordinated with ILX to extend the Cold Weather Advisory for west central Illinois counties until 09z Monday where criteria is lower at -15 and confidence is high on occurrence (HREF probabilities of apparent temps less than -15 at 50-70%). Have opted to hold off extending the advisory into Iowa and northern Illinois where criteria is -20, and while it's certainly possible some extension may be needed for parts of these areas this evening into the early overnight, there is uncertainty on the spatial extent and duration as winds diminish and HREF probabilities of apparent temps less than -20 at generally 20-40% depict this lower confidence.

Overnight tonight the high will shift east allowing southerly return flow/waa to develop and strengthen by morning. This should foster steady to rising temperatures toward daybreak. The winds could gust 20-25 mph and could lead to some blowing/drifting of the recent powdery snow with drifting more the concern on east-west oriented roads in open/rural areas.

Milder air surges into the area on Monday on the continued strengthening low level waa on gusty winds. Drifting snow will remain possible during the day, particularly in the open/rural areas. While much of the warmth is likely to not be realized at the surface due to the recent fresh snow cover, temperatures should still recover nicely and into the 20s and even some 30s with NBM 10th percentile for highs (9 in 10 chance of being higher) ranging from the lower 20s far northeast to the lower 30s far southwest.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 325 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

We'll continue to see a decent warm-up through mid-week as upper ridging builds in with temperatures anticipated to climb near or even a bit above climatological normals assuming we've lost a decent amount of snow cover. In the thawing process we will have to keep an eye on fog potential, particularly Tuesday night with weak low level convergence ahead of an approaching surface trough. Soundings show considerable dry air above any low level saturation, too limit any measurable rain but the setup could support drizzle.

Our next chance of precipitation is Wednesday night into Thursday as a vigorous shortwave trough and attendant cutoff low traverse the northern CONUS. Still some questions on exact timing/track and moisture availability, but trends are toward increasing precipitation chances. With a more northerly track allowing for warmer air the bulk of any precipitation that falls should be rain. Behind the cold frontal passage on Thursday we look to have a quick shot of cold air accompanied by brisk winds with EPS probabilities for winds greater than 40 mph at 30-50% midday to 6 PM on Thursday, so we'll need to monitor that in the coming days for any potential need for wind headlines.

After the quick shot of colder air post-frontal, we appear to return toward milder air next weekend as the semi-zonal flow pattern aloft ushers in another MP airmass.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 450 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Main concern is with winds as conditions look to remain VFR throughout the period. NW winds near 10 kt with localized higher gusts will diminish to light and variable this afternoon, as arctic high pressure builds into the region. As the high moves off tonight winds will increase from a southerly direction by late evening and overnight with gusts 15-25 kt by 12z Monday. This could lead to patchy blowing snow and brief visibility reductions at CID, MLI and BRL late in the period, but too much uncertainty for mention. A strengthening SW low level jet after 06z with winds of 45+ kt near 2kft agl will bring the potential of LLWS.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ040>042- 051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099. IL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024. Cold Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Monday for ILZ025-026-034-035. MO...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ009-010.