textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy, dry, but otherwise cloudy conditions are leading to marginally elevated fire risks near the east of the Mississippi River this afternoon.

- A quick moving storm system could brush out southern CWA with some wet snow, light freezing rain and mixed precipitation Wednesday evening through early Thursday. This system is trending weaker and south.

- Warm conditions continue to be forecast Friday, with southwest winds. Fire weather may be a concern Friday.

- A split flow pattern that favors northwest flow will be seen across the CONUS the second half of the week and into next week. Weak systems in the flow will bring the prospects of some precipitation over the weekend and early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

High/mid cloud cover has remained dense over the entire area, as well as the upper Midwest through early afternoon, resulting in temperatures well under guidance today. Our overnight shift issued a forecast high today, using the coolest guidance, and that appears to have been a great call, as we are still dealing with near freezing temperatures in the north as of Noon, with lower 40s in the south. Temperatures will slowly rise this afternoon, as we experience a brief "warm sector" ahead of the approaching weak cold front, currently moving through northwest Iowa and southeast MN. Winds are strong today, especially in the eastern CWA, with sustained winds around 15-20 mph, and gusts to 30 mph. This combination still warrants some fire weather risk, but given the cloud cover and RH values only dropping to 35-45%, this does not appear to be too concerning today.

This evening and overnight, the dense mid and high clouds are expected to drop south slowly, with clearing forecast to move through the area after midnight. This clearing and decreasing winds behind the weak cold front should allow for decent radiational cooling, to the mid teens northwest to lower 20s over much of the rest of the area. These light winds will make for a more pleasant Wednesday, despite seasonal temperatures in the upper 20s north to mid 40s south and increasing cloud cover.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Beginning late wednesday afternoon and early evening, a low amplitude wave in northwest flow aloft will begin moving into our region. This will most certainly increase cloud cover as several bands of F-gen set up over the Midwest. Two main bands of F-gen are noted in deterministic guidance. The farthest north band is shown from near Sioux City IA, to near Burlington, to central Illinois, while another more southerly F-gen band is found from near Topeka KS to near St Louis in this period. Moisture remains inconsistently forecast by all models for this system, and looking at the Midwest, we're currently very dry over the entire region. Looking at trends, the bulk of guidance has shown more dry air, and with that, a farther south position of saturation in the F-gen banded position. The GFS operational runs continue farther north, but NBM/WPC guidance now agrees on a southern trend, and very light QPF, under 0.10 in most locations in our south, and dry farther north. Snowfall has been lowered in the NBM/WPC to under 1 inch in the band, and shifted well south of earlier forecasts. For now, a band of trace to 1 inch is forecast south of I-80 in Iowa, and south of Aledo to Galesburg in Illinois. Little if any snow is expected north of I-80 in Iowa and Illinois.

With this dry solution trend, our forecast will now include some mention light freezing rain in our south, as ice is not consistently available in the latest data, while the surface remains in the upper 20s. A light glaze is possible, mainly along and south of Highway 34 in southeast Iowa, and far west central Illinois. I'll make mention of this in the HWO, but not issue any headline, given our low confidence in this event.

Quickly on the heals of what ever falls (or doesn't), Thursday will see well above freezing temperatures by mid to late morning, resulting in a quick melt to snow free conditions.

Friday stands out as single mild/warm day in this week's forecast. with the warm sector fully over the region and any remaining snow cover found only in the northwestern CWA, we're set up well to see a day in the mid 50s to mid 60s, with southwest winds and at least sunny or passing high clouds. While that's going to provide a nice breezy day, the time of year will once again lead to this being a likely fire weather day with dry fuels found throughout the region. Though this is currently falling well short of Red-Flag type forecasts, we'll have to keep an eye on it, and probably will message this similar to past days of fire weather potential.

Looking farther out, a messy zonal flow pattern remains forecast by extended guidance. This could bring snow and rain to the region, and by that time, some more notable gulf moist appears possible within a more

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Widespread VFR weather will continue through tonight, with southwest winds shifting to west around 00z tonight. Wind speeds will remain breezy with 10-15 kts sustained, gusting to 24 kts through sunset, then gusting to 20 kts overnight. By later tonight, a gradual shift to northwest will spread in with a weak cold front. Winds will be less gusty Wednesday after sunrise, but remain around 10 kts. High level overcast skies are expected through the period, with good visibility continuing through Wednesday morning.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.