textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- System passing south of our area this evening/tonight will bring low-end chances for light snow to areas south of Highway 34. Accumulations will largely remain less than an inch.

- Temperatures will trend well above normal through the week, increasing daily throughout. By the end of the week, widespread 50s and 60s can be expected.

- After Monday, widespread daily chances for rain will be seen, with thunderstorms also possible. While there will be some dry moments seen each day, we will remain gloomy and damp through most of the week. Have umbrellas handy!

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

As high pressure slides into the eastern Great Lakes tonight, a shortwave trough embedded within west-northwest flow aloft will track through the Central Plains into Missouri and southern Illinois. This path will keep most of the steady precipitation to the south of our outlook area. The exception will be for areas south of Highway 34 where light precipitation, generally under a tenth of an inch (liquid equivalent) is possible. Thermal profiles support snow as the dominant p-type overnight and with surface air temps falling to around freezing, minor accumulations of a dusting to less than 1 inch are possible mainly across the southern tier of counties and even more so favored near our southern border area. Warm antecedent conditions should result in mainly wet pavement with limited impacts anticipated. The latest HREF mean snowfall accumulations show the 1"+ contour remaining slightly south of the outlook area, which is a shift to the south from the previous run; and NBM probs for 1"+ are <20% near the southern border of the outlook area. For Monday, temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 40s and dry conditions are expected.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A transition to southwesterly flow midweek will support an active weather pattern. Multiple chances for precipitation are possible, with a warm thermal profile favoring rain as the primary precipitation type.

A band of low level warm advection will support increasing temperatures and light precipitation Monday night into much of the day Tuesday. Temps are expected to rise into the mid 40s north to low 50s south with the southerly flow and WAA. Light precipitation is expected across much of the region, with the greatest PoPs along and south of Interstate 80 (70-90%). North of Interstate 80, PoPs lower to 40-70% as uncertainty remains in how far north the system will push. There is a chance for non-severe thunderstorms as well.

Additional precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday as an upper level wave and associated surface low pass through the midwest. While uncertainty remains in the forecast track of the low, ensemble and deterministic guidance suggests that much of our area will see additional precipitation with this system. Potential of up to 0.5 inches of rain or more are possible, with 48-hour exceedance probabilities ranging from 50-70% north to south. Looking towards the end of the week, precipitation chances will continue as another system moves through the region Friday. Models are in agreement that precipitation will cover much of our CWA, with PoPs ranging from 70- 80%. With southerly flow present for much of the week, temperatures will continue to rise into the 50s in the north and 60s in the south Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures on Friday could potentially reach into the 60s to low 70s, though the persistent cloud cover could temper highs.

After multiple precipitation chances, Saturday looks to be drier as Friday's system moves out of the region, bringing slightly cooler but still above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR to prevail through the period with steady easterly winds between 5 to 15 kts. Low cloud cover will increase tonight into Monday morning at BRL with some potential (30-50%) for MVFR ceilings late in the period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.