textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm system passing through today/tonight will bring scattered storms this afternoon/evening. Strong to severe storms will be possible, with a brief tornado or severe wind gust being the main hazards.

- Gusty winds will move in behind the passing system, bringing northeast winds of 20-30 mph late tonight through Saturday. Some higher gusts will be possible.

- Below normal temperatures will be seen through the weekend and into the start of the next work week, with mostly dry conditions anticipated.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Storm system passing through the area today will bring another round of scattered showers/storms this afternoon and evening. Ahead of this round, satellite observations indicate a dry slot working through the area. This dry slot has plenty of gaps in the cloud cover, which will allow for surface heating and further destabilization, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 80. Latest trends in SPC Mesoanalysis indicate increasing instability in these areas, especially in the low levels, with shear also gradually increasing. There will be just enough shear (25-35 KTs in the deep layer) in the environment to support some organized storms. Storm mode will largely be mixed-mode, with some semi discrete cells. If any cells become supercellular, there will be a low-end severe threat. This threat is conditional on surface heating, especially with shear being marginal. As such, the SPC continues to hold much of our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe storms, with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) in our far south. When looking at hazard potential in strong/severe storms, brief tornadoes and severe wind gusts remain the primary threats. The threat for tornadoes will largely be south of Interstate 80, where the best shear/instability is found, especially in the low levels.

Not only will we have the threat for some strong to severe storms, but these storms will also bring heavy rainfall to the area. Guidance favors PWATs between 2.00-2.50", which is near daily max when compared to our sounding climatology. For reference, our 18z sounding shows a 2.20" PWAT. Thus, anomalously high moisture is in place and wouldn't be shocked if some areas see another 1.00-2.00" of rain with the additional showers/storms this afternoon through tonight. Localized areas may see higher totals than that given range, especially if repeated rounds of showers/storms are seen, but much uncertainty exists. While anywhere in our area can see repeated rounds of storms through this evening/tonight, short term guidance has been favoring more coverage of this potential along/north of Interstate 80. Given recently dry conditions and the state of the crops, much of this rainfall should easily infiltrate into the ground, limiting flash flood concerns. Although, areas that saw heavy rainfall this morning, largely in urban areas, will have a low-end flash flood threat as well. Heavy rainfall rates will also lead to concerns in urban areas. WPC has highlighted our area with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall and Flash Flooding.

Saturday, we will continue to see scattered showers decreasing from west to east through the area. Much of the area should be dry by noon, remaining as such for the remainder of the day. Temperatures will be below seasonal norms, sitting in the mid-upper 70s. We will be mostly cloudy through the day, with clouds starting to decrease through the afternoon and evening. Gusty northeasterly winds will result through Saturday, owing to the strong pressure gradient overhead. Early Saturday morning, we will see winds increase throughout. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph can be expected through the day, with gusts upwards to 30 mph or higher. After sunset, we will see these winds decrease.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The upper-level trough that will help bring precipitation across the area today into Saturday will finally depart the region to the east Sunday, leading to a period of dry conditions. Surface high pressure building across the area, along with upper-level ridging over the Intermountain West region protruding from a large upper-level high over the southwestern CONUS, will support more quiescent conditions through Tuesday, with near-seasonal temperatures (highs in the lower 80s) for Sunday through Tuesday.

In terms of active weather, it appears mainly Wednesday/Thursday will be the time to watch as the upper-level ridging breaks down, allowing a mid-level trough to approach the region. An attendant surface cold front is also progged to accompany the trough, although there are significant timing differences among the global models of the front, and thus, timing of precipitation with that boundary. Severe weather potential with this front appears to be pretty low at this time, given modest values of instability and shear (25-35 knots for 0-6 km shear magnitudes). The various machine learning severe weather probability guidance supports the more limited severe weather signal.

Schultz

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Poor flying conditions expected for much of the TAF cycle. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to track northeast ahead of a surface low, with brief IFR/LIFR conditions possible at DBQ/MLI. Low IFR/LIFR cigs to move into the region as the surface low drops southeast through eastern IA and northwest IL. These will remain through at least 12z, with conditions improving to MVFR from northwest to southeast early afternoon. In addition, strong northwest winds will be seen, with gusts near 30kts at times as pressure gradient increases.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.