textproduct: Quad Cities

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- There are chances for light rain/drizzle Wednesday and Wednesday night and again Thursday night.

- A pattern change to colder conditions is possible by late in the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A surface trough will move through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tonight turning winds around to the NW. Moist southerly flow ahead of the front will continue to support low clouds across the region and a chance for some patchy drizzle favored north of I-80 (20-50%). Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows in the 30s. Seasonably mild conditions are expected on Tuesday with highs generally in the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

We remain on track for a mostly quiet and unseasonably mild stretch of weather for the remainder of the week. A broad upper ridge will set up over the Central CONUS, with us situated along the top of it. This will keep us under largely zonal flow, with little/no movement in the ridge axis through midweek, keeping the weather relatively similar from day to day. Deep wave will also remain situated over the Western CONUS during this timeframe, which will continue to push weak bouts of energy over the Rockies and track along the ridge. This will allow low-amplitude short waves to pass through the area, but precipitation chances remain low, with main chances on Wednesday along/east of the Mississippi River. Global models continue to favor the chance for light precipitation that day, largely in the form of light rain/drizzle. Overall, accumulations should be <0.10" for anyone that sees rain. With the increase in low-level moisture, periods of fog will be possible beginning Tuesday night and lasting through late in the week.

Temperatures are forecast to increase daily through midweek, bringing us well above seasonal norms. For Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, the NBM and GFS ensemble have now trended colder toward the EC ensemble. This translates to highs in the upper 30s/low 40s to lower/mid 50s from north to south through the outlook area. Latest indications are for a backdoor cold front to come through Christmas Eve night, turning winds around to the NE/E, thereby increasing confidence on the cooler (yet still above normal) scenario through Christmas Day.

After Thursday, guidance would favor the breakdown of the wave sitting over the west, allowing our ridge overhead to flatten a bit. With this breakdown, stronger waves will now be able to work their way farther south into the region. As deeper waves start to push in from the northwest, we will start to see cooler air work into the area by late in the weekend, but with mild conditions continuing through Saturday. The NBM has increased precip chances (20-50%) for Thursday night as a period of WAA rolls across the region. With the mild temperatures in place, this looks to be a light rain event with the highest chances across the east. A relatively dry pattern is anticipated to continue into early next week with temperatures closer to normal by that time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR stratocu deck will look to seep east of the TAF sites this evening and through midnight and tried to time the clearing with a blend of several CAMs. Of course at this time of year, there is the potential for a slowed to stalled clearing trend after sunset but hope the LLVL southwesterlies continue to have their effect. Otherwise rather light south sfc winds will veer more southwest and west by late Tuesday morning with a passing weak sfc front. Will bank on any cloud cover on Tuesday occurring at VFR levels, but there is some uncertainty especially if any of the lower stuff gets trapped acrs the area tonight. Post- frontal ridge may allow for northwest to north winds toward the end of the TAF period.

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IA...None. IL...None. MO...None.