textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Relatively mild today with highs from the mid 30s to lower 40s.

- A little colder Wednesday through Friday but continued dry.

AVIATION

Mid cloud continues to work across southern lower MI today as low pressure tracks over the northern Great Lakes. While S-SW winds hold around 10kts, strengthening pre-frontal flow aloft will support low level wind shear focused over PTK-south this morning. Cold front eventually sweeps across SE MI this afternoon flipping winds to the NW and increasing gusts toward 20kts. Model soundings have trended a bit slower in low cloud filling in post front so opted to for SCT low VFR mention this afternoon with MVFR ceilings arriving this evening. Region remains under colder, moderate northwest flow into Wednesday with ceilings favored to hold within MVFR territory.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning, high by evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

Regional radar and surface observations overnight have indicated precip largely falling north of the forecast area, associated with a region of deep layer moist isentropic ascent. While some of this ascent may support a brief interval of snow/sleet across the northern thumb, ceilings across the northern portions of the forecast area remain quite high. This suggests low level dry air is still a limiting factor for precip. Exit region jet dynamics focused across the northern Great Lakes this morning will drive a 925 to 850mb theta e plume across Se Mi in the 09Z to 15Z time frame. While there is indication of some additional rounds of isentropic ascent with this feature, model cross sections indicate the ascent to be fairly shallow within a relatively stable profile. Given this and the bulk of ensemble guidance, a dry forecast will be maintained today.

The ongoing precip across the northern lakes will be driven east by a lead short wave impulse. This lead wave will be followed by a more amplified wave tracking across Lake Superior and nrn Ontario this afternoon and will force a weak cold front across the forecast area late morning/early afternoon. A respectable elevated warm layer is now being advected into Se Mi within a 50+ knot 925mb southwest jet. The residence time of this warm layer will be brief, as cold air advection will already be underway this afternoon. There will however be an opportunity for relatively mild air to infiltrate Se Mi through both advection processes and diurnal mixing. In light the snow pack across the region, there is a high variability within the 00Z model suite and ensemble members as to how effectively mixing will boost daytime highs. In light of current temps upstream well into the 30s, highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s seem warranted across most of the forecast area, generally in line with the latest ECMWF ensemble members.

A more notable push of cold air will arrive tonight as the upper wave tracks into ern Ontario/srn Quebec within strengthening northwest winds across Lower Mi. Model soundings indicate low level lapse rates steepening within the cold air advection (as 850mb temps drop toward -11C overnight). Moisture depth remains limited on model soundings. This will warrant just slight chance pops for light snow showers or flurries tonight into Wednesday. The airmass will not be nearly cold as in recent weeks and with a boost from diurnal mixing will warrant forecast highs from the upper 20s to lower 30s Wednesday. A period of dry weather remains forecast Thursday into Saturday as high pressure dominates the Great Lakes region and the upper jet remains positioned south of the state.

MARINE...

Ongoing passage of a warm front will continue to produce widespread snow across the greater portion of the northern Great Lakes, including north and central Lake Huron. Snow exits this afternoon as the associated low pressure system progress from northern Lake Superior into Lake Ontario through early Wednesday morning.

Passage of this system will push a cold front over the Great Lakes late tonight into Wednesday morning. Close proximity to the low pressure system strengthens the pressure gradient over Lake Huron while intrusion of cold air reinforces steeper mixing depths. This will bring the likely chance to see wind gusts that range between 30 to 35 knots across north and north-central Lake Huron from 00Z Wed to 12Z Wed. Opted to issue a Gale Warning as model trends have held steady regarding gale potential. Gales will be most probably across north-central Lake Huron given the west flow that veer west- northwest during the event.

High pressure to then build in over the region tomorrow into Thursday, which will bring lighter winds to the area through the midweek period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.