textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers taper off this morning with mostly cloudy and seasonable conditions the rest of the day.

- Slightly milder and breezy on Sunday.

- Temperatures stay on the warmer side of average through mid week before a cool down arrives late week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling 5000 ft this afternoon becoming low this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 AM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Deep, closed upper low pressure over eastern Lake Erie tracks eastward toward New England through the day with moist cyclonic flow maintained in its wake across Southeast MI. Morning stratus evolves into stratocumulus as daytime mixing commences, with mostly cloudy skies prevailing through the day. Scattered early morning showers will move out leaving dry conditions the rest of the day save for a spotty sprinkle or two. The cold core of the system has already departed and will allow for high temps to rebound slightly compared to yesterday, landing in the lower 50s. A tight corridor of isentropic downglide accompanies the arrival of anticyclonic flow this afternoon, leading to rapid drying and the eventual clearing of remaining clouds this evening. Favorable radiating conditions cause temperatures to quickly drop this evening, settling into the lower 30s and upper 20s overnight.

A Pacific jet streak arriving into the PNW causes the next Canadian shortwave to amplify as it tracks from southern Manitoba into the Great Lakes on Sunday. This wave induces a period of warm air advection on breezy southwesterly wind Sunday morning. Temperatures rebound into the mid 50s while afternoon wind becomes gusty to around 30 mph. The attendant surface low passes northeast of Georgian Bay late Sunday, dragging a cold front across the area. The greater lift tied to upper height falls and PVA will focus over Lake Huron, but a slight chance (20%) of light showers will exist along and behind the front Sunday evening.

Cold air advection behind the Sunday wave is short-lived and temperatures will stay on the mild side into the mid-week. A progressive upper air pattern persists through this period with a shortwave ridge cresting overhead Monday before the next trough arrives on Tuesday. Fropa tied to this wave also looks mostly dry as the bulk of forcing slides north of the local area. By the end of the week, more persistent troughing develops across the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS. This will favor temperatures falling on the cooler side of average. Northerly flow shows potential for lake effect rain and snow showers at times.

MARINE...

Low pressure now located across the eastern Great Lakes will wash out across New England today. This will allow wind speeds to decrease through the late morning and afternoon hours and will bring light winds well into the evening. This window for lighter winds will be short-lived as a second low pressure system pushes from the central Canadian Provinces into southern Ontario and Quebec tomorrow. This will initially support breezy southwest flow with gusts at or below 30 knots, taking into consideration the more stable conditions under the stream of warm air aloft. However, as this low departs, winds will veer to the northwest, ushering in another round of cold air. The boost in instability over the warmer lake waters will help mixing depths tap the stronger winds aloft. This brings increasing confidence for gust to gales tomorrow afternoon through Monday morning across northern Lake Huron. A Gale Watch remains in effect. For locations south, Small Craft Advisories will be likely for the Saginaw Bay and portions of the Lake Huron shoreline as gust potential around 25 knots will be possible, in addition to the elevated wave heights across the Outer Saginaw Bay and Thumb under the initial southwest flow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for LHZ361- 362.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ421- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.