textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential exists for dense fog development each of the daybreak periods through Monday. Any patchy/dense fog is expected to dissipate by around 10 am each morning.

- Mild and dry through the middle of next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 349 PM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

Persistence forecast as ridging aloft with surface high pressure maintains influence over the Great Lakes. Expecting the blocking pattern to hold through this weekend. Models pointing toward this mid-upper level pattern breaking down into zonal flow early-mid week, but surface high pressure will continue to influence the regional weather.

Fog will again be the main concern tonight as it has been the last few nights within this pattern. Flow remains easterly tonight with Lake Erie supplying the lower level moisture with clear skies providing the favorable radiational cooling for fog development. There is some indication on some model soundings that there is a little more dry air at the surface compared to last night, at least for eastern portions of the CWA. However, patchy fog will be possible across most of the forecast area tonight. Fog potential will be in the forecast for each night and the following morning through the weekend with the typical lifting of fog by around mid or late morning.

Thermal profiles moderate a little bit through the weekend. Temperatures generally around the mid 60s today and tomorrow will climb to around 70 degrees for Sunday. The low that flattens the ridge aloft will send a backdoor cold front through the region early next week and bring cooler temperatures. The front will have very little moisture to work with, so expecting a dry frontal passage. Temperatures at 850mb drop into the single digit C range during the early week. Tuesday offering mid 50s to low 60s high for Tuesday. Gulf/southeast US ridge directs any precipitations chances to our west and north during the mid-week period as well.

MARINE...

Controlling high pressure continues to migrate south over Quebec, moving into New England by tonight. Light southeasterly winds trend lower overnight, followed by a minor southerly shift into Saturday. Speeds gradually tick upwards over the weekend as the surface ridge maintains control from the east and the surface pressure gradient constricts. An approaching cold front could briefly stall out over The Straits on Sunday, which would conclude a prolonged streak of dry weather. Confidence remains low for rainfall with this boundary, before it weakens and traverses the rest of the basin Sunday night into Monday. A post-frontal northerly wind shift ensues, followed by a few additional opportunities for some stray showers next week. Several waves of low pressure are expected to track northeast from The Plains through the Upper Midwest Monday through Wednesday. Winds and waves should remain below headline criteria through this period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.