textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer today with seasonal temperatures.

- A slow moving cold front brings the next chance of rain starting tomorrow morning. Additional chances for rain on Friday.

- Cooler but still near normal temperatures occur behind the front Friday and Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft Thursday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

DISCUSSION...

Return flow from a departing high pressure that is moving into New England and approaching low pressure across the northern Plains will support a moderate pressure gradient across the Great Lakes that will aid in ushering in warmer temperatures across the plains into the region. This will bring temperature highs in the 50s today along with slightly breezy conditions with southwest gusts around 25 mph. Dry conditions prevail today outside of a very low brief chance for a rain shower in the afternoon across the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb along an elevated warm front.

Progression of the low pressure system across the northern Plains into the northern Great Lakes will drive a cold front across Michigan through Thursday morning. Frontogenetic forcing along the front weakens as the front passes SE MI as it traverses an environment no instability. This will produce a line of rain showers that will move across SE MI from roughly 08Z Thu - 18Z Thu. The best coverage will be across the Tri-Cities where convergence along the front is maximized, with decreasing coverage leading into the afternoon. High pressure briefly fills in in the wake of the front, bringing afternoon sunshine with daytime highs pushing into the 60s. Behind the front and prior to the arrival of high pressure, improved mixing depths will mix down gusts to 30-35 mph during daylight hours.

Additional chances for rain arrive Friday morning and afternoon along a slow moving frontal boundary that will accelerate out of the southern Great Lakes by the second half of the day once a strong high pressure fills in across the Midwest and Great Lakes. Some enhanced low-level convergence along the leading edge of a strengthening nocturnal jet could brings some embedded thunderstorm activity with some brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Thermal profiles across the Tri-Cities and northern Thumb could support a period of melting snowflakes before a transition to rain. Please see the hydrology section for additional details. High pressure fills in late Friday into Saturday, leading to dry conditions.

Sunday into the early week period will have multiple chances for rain showers with potential for embedded thunderstorms as a closed low system over the continental southwest gradually moves in across the Four Corners region through the early week period. The amplified troughing over the west will allow Gulf moisture so stream in into the Plains and Great Lakes. Passage of a warm front and trailing shortwave Sunday-Monday and cold front on Tuesday brings increasing chances for unsettled weather.

MARINE...

High pressure centers over the Great Lakes today, leading to drier and less windy conditions. Northwest flow weakens this evening and flips southerly overnight as the center of the ridge translates into the eastern Great Lakes, while low pressure over the central US/Canada border tracks toward Ontario. Pressure gradient constriction occurs as the low approaches, with southerly flow increasing to 25 knots late Wednesday evening. A 60 knot low level jet moves overhead Wednesday night, but low-level stability should prevent comparable gusts from mixing to the surface. Most areas should see gusts capped below 35 knots, with elevated wave heights being the main marine concern. A few gusts to gales cannot be ruled out, but should be infrequent enough to preclude an gale headlines. However, Small Craft Advisories are in effect across the Saginaw Bay and into Port Huron. The low will also slowly draw a cold front across the region late this week, resulting in several rounds of showers with potential for a few rounds of thunderstorms. High pressure then returns to start the weekend with weaker winds and lower wave heights.

HYDROLOGY...

A cold front brings the chance for rain showers through tomorrow morning. Rain totals to range from trace amounts up to .2" inches, pending integrity of coverage along the front. Widespread rain is then expected on Friday. Around a half-inch of accumulation is expected, with localized higher amounts up to around 1" possible with any embedded thunderstorms. Localized flooding in low-lying or flood prone areas remain low with thunderstorm activity but overall flooding concerns remain low.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.