textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain showers this morning with an isolated thunderstorm.

- Mild temperatures persist through Thursday.

- Renewed chance for rain late Thursday into Friday morning, with snow shower chances by Friday afternoon or evening.

AVIATION

A warm front moving northward from the Ohio border dictates aviation conditions this morning. A wide range of ceiling and visibility observed as of 12Z will fill in to IFR with borderline LIFR as a band of showers catches up from the west. A rumble of thunder is also possible but with predictability on the low side for any one terminal location. Rapid improvement then occurs this afternoon as the system dry slot and occlusion sweep west to east across Lower Mi. The exception is in the MBS area where the warm front/occlusion is slow to move north and may even stall overhead. Farther south, wind becomes SW with gusts around 25 knots until closer to sunset. A clearing trend this evening brings another round of fog as surface frontal remnants linger across the region through sunrise Thursday.

For DTW... IFR ceiling and visibility solidify this morning as a band of rain showers moves in from the west while the front moves northward from the Ohio border. A rumble of thunder is possible followed by rapid ceiling and visibility improvement this afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below 1/2SM this morning.

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet this morning through early afternoon.

* High for precip type as all rain this morning.

* Low for thunderstorms this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 458 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

DISCUSSION...

Slow progression of an occluded low pressure system across MN has brought multiple ribbons of precipitation to SE MI tied to enhanced system relative isentropic ascent in the mid-levels. These initial bands will continue to progress northeastward through the mid-morning hours, which will eventually give way to a more dynamically enhanced second round, leading to some enhanced rainfall rates particularly for the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Elongation of the jet stream into the northern Ohio River Valley will help induce a stronger ageostrophic response under enhanced upper-level divergence while a trialing vorticity maximum rounds the base of the trough and pivots into SE MI, leading to the enhancement of rainfall rates. Instability looks to be mostly disjointed from precipitation, leading to lower end chances for thunderstorms. However, cannot rule out some isolated activity with mid-level lapse rates holding around 7C/km.

All rain to abruptly end through the late morning to early afternoon as a prominent mid-level dry slot rapidly moves across the Great Lakes with surface flow backing to the southwest in the wake of a warm front. This front is projected to stall out across the cwa, likely somewhere across the Tri-Cities and greater portion of the Thumb, and possibly stalling farther west across portions of Tuscola/Lapeer/St. Clair. Temperature contrast will be stark on either side of the stalled front, with highs making a push towards 60 (closer to the MI/OH border, where temperatures fail to push out of the 40s north of the front. Brief window for some late day mixing also brings potential for gusts around 20-25 mph within the warm sector this afternoon.

Dry overnight and through tomorrow for most locations, with low-end rain shower chances across southern Michigan as a weak shortwave clips the region. Attention will then turn to a second low pressure system which will develop on the lee of the central Rockies Thursday morning before steering into Lake Huron and northern lower Michigan by Friday, occluding over the Great Lakes. Projected path of this low will keep SE MI within the warm sector, bringing renewed chances for rain showers through the morning. Cyclonic flow will wrap cold air from the Plains around the southern quadrant of this system, which pending timing of this caa, could bring decreasing temperatures through the afternoon, along with windy conditions as stronger mixing depths interact with the llj aloft, bringing the chance to see gusts 35-40 mph. Additionally, wrap around moisture with the cooler temperatures will bring some chances for snow showers by the afternoon or evening.

Colder temperatures take hold to start the early week period along with some chances for snow showers derived from lake enhancement under the greater trough structure.

MARINE...

A marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until later this morning for southern Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair, in the absence of meaningful drying mechanisms. Winds mainly persist out of the east with an approaching low pressure system, although the southern waterways could flip southwesterly given other surface pressure adjustments. An energetic low-level jet (+45 knots at 925 mb) is moving overhead as the mature system tracks northeastward across Minnesota. This supports gusts to gales over the northern half of the Huron basin today. A Gale Warning remains in place until late this afternoon, before the low-level jet axis lifts into the northern Great Lakes. This system will also produce periods of rainfall, possibly mixed with snow over the northern waterways. Can't completely rule out a rumble of thunder further south. A brief lull in dynamics ensues Thursday, favoring headline-free conditions. Another period of elevated winds arrives Friday with the next low pressure system. Potential continues to increase for an additional round of gusts to gales across northern Lake Huron Friday morning.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain this morning, the heaviest which will fall across the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Rain to abruptly end by the late morning to early afternoon, with rainfall totals ranging between a half-inch up to below 1" north of I-69. For locations south, rainfall totals hold to a half-inch or less, with amounts of a quarter- inch or less closer to the MI/OH border. The rain will occur on top of a melting snowpack that had a Snow Water Equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". The combination of rain and snow melt on frozen ground may lead to rises on area streams and rivers. Ponding of water on roads is also possible, especially where drains could be blocked by snow and/or winter debris.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.