textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Temperatures fall into the teens and lingering gusty winds results in wind chill values bottoming out near zero late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

- Stronger, more focused areas of lake effect snow showers may bring periods of reduced visibility though this evening.

- Tuesday remains unseasonable cold with highs in the 20s. Temperatures moderate through the end of the week, along with additional low chances for precipitation.

AVIATION

Mixing depths support gradually decreasing, but still gusty, westerly winds tonight into Tuesday morning as prior low pressure system's wake maintains robust low-level winds. Lake effect snow showers extending from Lake Michigan will decrease in coverage and intensity as the night progresses and upper level support wanes. A lull in snowfall is then expected Tuesday morning, but renewed lake effect shower development is possible midday Tuesday as low-level lapse rates steepen and weak instability arises. Expect less coverage, lower intensity, and weaker winds, compared to Monday.

For DTW...Westerly gusts over 25 knots persist tonight, but decrease into Tuesday morning, eventually recovering below crosswind exceedence. A few additional light lake effect snow showers are possible tonight. Low probability for IFR visibility reductions.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet tonight.

* High in precip type as snow tonight and Tuesday.

* Medium in crosswind exceedence early tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

UPDATE...

Brief update to extend the Wind Advisory a few more hours until 4 am. We remain in a favorable spot with the low level jet winds and the arctic air is still supporting strong wind gusts. A few spots have been reporting gusts over 40 mph. Expect gusty winds gradually ease throughout the early morning hours as low level jet winds continue to weaken.

PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 332 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast concern through this evening resides with widely scattered snow showers, continued gusty winds, and falling temperatures. Wind gusts of 35-45 mph will linger through this evening so opted to leave the Wind Advisory going. As southwest winds become more westerly and northwesterly through tonight, cold air advection continues to stream into the area. This incoming colder air has already allowed for widely scattered snow showers to develop this afternoon. Expect these trends to continue into the evening hours. It is not out of the question that more robust snow showers may be capable of significantly reducing visibilities. We should start to see the coverage of snow showers wane as we lose daytime heating. As the colder air moves in, temperatures fall into the teens and wind chill values bottom out around zero degrees. A few spots across the Thumb may see wind chill values fall below zero, where gustier northwest winds linger overnight.

Overnight into Tuesday morning, the main surface low departs the region. With lingering lake effect snow downwind of Lake Michigan, we may have to deal with a few areas of lingering snow showers into Tuesday morning. While the longwave trough departs the region, the lingering pocket of cold air aloft will keep daytime heights in the 20s on Tuesday with high-based flurries or very light snow showers possible.

The middle/end of the week temperatures will moderate as the pocket of cold air exits to the northeast. Daytime highs will steadily warm from mid/upper 30s on Wednesday to 40s/50s Thursday and Friday. We will be keeping an eye on a few shortwaves that dig southeast across the Great Lakes region during this stretch. Guidance is not in good agreement with the strength and or timing of these shortwaves (and no surprise) this lack of agreement worsens through the weekend and into early next week. Thus, we have low-end PoPs in the forecast almost every day.

MARINE...

Strong low pressure (988 MB) now exiting northern Lake Huron/Georgian Bay this afternoon. Strong southwest gales (40+ knots) have been observed across central and southern Lake Huron, as well as Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. The gale warning remains in great shape, as winds shift northwest in the wake of the low. Very cold airmass for Mid March standards to move over the Lake Huron this evening/tonight, as 850 MB temps lower into the negative low to mid 20s. This will assure deep mixing to support the gale force wind gusts overnight. The thermal through axis to exit east after midnight. This bitter cold airmass will be conducive to heavy freezing spray into Tuesday before winds diminish sufficiently and airmass begins to modify.

High pressure to slide through the Ohio Valley tomorrow, with the pronounced surface ridging extending north by evening. This is provide a lull in winds, under 20 knots. However, moderate southwest winds to return on Wednesday as return flow around the high kicks in, and low pressure tracks through northern Ontario Wednesday night.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ361>363-421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.