textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A few snow squalls are possible through about 5 pm with the passage of an arctic cold front. Northwest winds ramp up and gust 30- 40 MPH with the front through early tonight.

- Temperatures reaching the lower to mid 30s early this afternoon will plummet through the evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 F range by early Saturday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of southeastern Michigan late this evening through Saturday morning as wind chills fall to 15 to 20 degrees below zero.

- Above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

- Next chance of light snow occurs Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Arctic front has started dropping south through the area and should exit to the SE this evening prior to 00Z. Dewpoints still in the mid 20s ahead of the front offer up low level moisture for possible snow showers or squalls this afternoon/evening. Models advertise surface convergence strengthening between MBS and DTW so though there is nothing notable showing up on radar early on, intensity could increase into the early evening. Post frontal winds are on track so far with upstream obs showing gusts of 30-35 knots over land and up around 40 knots near the lakeshore with the onshore flow. These strong gusts may lead to blowing and drifting of any snow that falls along the front, or snow that fell earlier this morning.

These strong winds will also lead to aggressive cold air advection with 850mb temps falling from -7C this morning down to -20C early tonight. Skies will mostly clear with the favorable northerly flow keeping most of the Lake Superior to Lake MI moisture plume to our west. This will lead to rapid cooling with lows dropping to around 0F with negative values likely in the Thumb. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the whole CWA tonight into Saturday morning for wind chills dropping into the -10 to -20F range.

Temps remain cool on Saturday with continued northerly flow and high Canadian high pressure passing over the region. Only slight moderation to the thermal profile with 850mb temps still in the negative upper teens C so high temperatures likely remain in the teens Saturday. Upper trough then begins to inch eastward through the latter half of the weekend and into next week leading to a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. High will rise to near 30 on Monday before reaching the mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Next change of precipitation will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a shortwave rounding the ridge shears over the region with an elevated front looking to activate with isentropic ascent along the warm advection arm. Most of the lift and moisture will be elevated but most models and probabilistic guidance supports a chance of snow showers during this time. There is currently a large spread in location of the best forcing from northern Ohio up through about the I69 corridor so look for refinements in placement as we get more into the range of the hires models.

MARINE

Northwest flow encompasses the central Great Lakes region, with the arctic front now located across Lake Erie. Strong cold advection post-front has led to a quick pop in wind gusts to 45 knots in some spots which will be relatively short-lived as subsidence gradually lowers mixing depths this evening. The dry arctic airmass confines main snow shower activity to the ice-free waters of Lake Huron, with any of these snow showers potentially becoming snow squalls at times. The strongest wind pop is just now reaching Saginaw Bay, and will settle south through the evening before gusts settle to 35-40 knots tonight. Gale Warnings and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect, with the latest update adjusting the end time of the warnings to account for a slower ramp down in gusts. Should see winds drop below headline thresholds around daybreak Saturday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Quieter marine conditions then prevail for the weekend into early next week with a chance for snow on Sunday as a clipper glances across lower Michigan.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

AVIATION...

Arctic front on pace to sweep across southeast Michigan from north to south during the late aftenoon and early evening hours. This will maintain potential for brief higher intensity snow showers to develop, with accompanying reduction of visbility into MVFR/IFR and some lower of ceiling height. Outside of snow shower activity, prevailing MVFR cigs will continue to mark conditions as much colder air surges in. Notable increase in gust magnitude and frequency from the northwest during the evening hours, peaking in excess of 30 knots. Gusty conditions persist overnight as much drier air supports a clearing trend. VFR conditions with mostly clear skies expected through Saturday morning.

For DTW...Chance of snow showers with an increase in wind from the northwest between 20z and 23z with the passage of an arctic front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through this evening. Low tonight.

* Moderate for crosswind thresholds to be exceeded this afternoon.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070.

Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday for MIZ075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ361.

Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ362-363-421-441>443- 462>464.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ362-363- 462.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.