textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Huron county early this morning due to lake effect snow showers. An additional 1-2" possible before bands shift offshore around the morning commute timeframe.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of southeastern Michigan this morning as wind chills fall to 10 to 15 degrees below zero.

- Above normal temperatures are increasingly possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION

Ongoing arctic air advecting into the region amidst north-northwest winds has lead to areas of VFR based lake clouds streaming across Se Mi. Some residual moisture may support scattered VFR based clouds through the day aided by some diurnal mixing. The degree of dry air advection will likely limit daytime cloud coverage to scattered. Some nocturnal cooling will lead to a drop in wind speeds/gusts around and shortly after daybreak. There will some slight uptick in winds later in the morning with the onset of daytime mixing. Wind speeds will then decrease during the afternoon and evening as high pressure expands into the region from the west.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Impressive lake effect response tonight focused into Huron county as -20C 850mb temps and 35-45kt low level flow has allowed short fetch over far eastern Superior to support bands reaching down across most of Huron county. North-northwest winds within the lake aggregate trough over Lake Huron also allowed surface convergence over the limited open waters in the central lake to bend bands into the county's eastern lakeshore further fed by the Lake Superior moisture plume. Based on radar presentation on Caset as well as satellite trends, a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory was opted for. By time of current discussion, winds expected to shortly begin shifting to more pure northwesterly flow shunting primary lake effect bands offshore. Still, an additional 1-2 inches of new snow are possible between now and then. Associated lake cloud has helped to blunt radiative cooling tonight over the northern half of the CWA, particularly the Saginaw Valley and Thumb with these areas holding some 5-8 degrees warmer than they'd otherwise be. While this does temper morning wind chills, SE MI will still see values between 10 to 15 below zero. Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect this morning.

Temperatures only reach into the mid to upper teens today as Canadian high pressure maintains cold northwesterly flow through the day. Surface high shifts over Lake Huron by late tonight as a shearing shortwave riding overtop the central CONUS mid-upper ridge reaches the western Great Lakes. Models have converged on this wave diving southeast across southern Lake Michigan/far southwestern MI Sunday morning. Influence of the high across the central Great Lakes however acts to greatly inhibit snow shower potential this far east. Forecast soundings struggle to reach saturation with areas west of I- 75/US-23 being the only areas that seem to have a shot to marginally saturate enough for a light snow shower rather than just flurries.

Shortwave drops into the Ohio Valley by early Sunday afternoon as the aforementioned central CONUS ridging expands over the state. This deamplifying ridge holds across the central Great Lakes into midweek supporting a steady warming trend early week. Passing clipper over the far northern Great Lakes late Monday-Tuesday strengthens lower level southwesterly flow into southern lower MI with latest model solutions trending warmer (850mb temps potentially reaching the positive mid single digits). This offers an increasing chance for SE MI to see high temps Tuesday in the upper 30s to low 40s. Following the passage of the weak cold front late Tuesday evening, quasi-zonal upper flow looking favored to develop across the central CONUS keeping lower MI closer to average mid-February temperatures.

MARINE...

Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings come to an end this morning as high pressure fills into the area and the pressure gradient begins to relax. Northwest flow remains in tact through the remainder of the day until the high pressure center slides across the Ohio Valley and wind direction takes on a south-southeast direction. The directional shift occurs just prior to a weak disturbance tracking across Lower Michigan early Sunday morning, bringing light snow chances to Saginaw Bay and points south. Otherwise, wind and wave concerns remain limited through the early half of next week, particularly as additional ice cover develops amidst the arctic airmass.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ362-363-421-441>443- 462>464.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.