textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- No precipitation expected through the weekend.

- Chance for some freezing fog development overnight.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

AVIATION

A weak pressure trough dissipated during the night while leaving low clouds and fog across northern Lower Mi. The clouds settle into the MBS area and toward FNT during the morning while clear sky holds across the DTW corridor. Diffuse high pressure builds just enough to nudge the clouds northward with some daytime dissipation also expected. Patchy shallow cumulus are accompanied by increasing high clouds off the Gulf states low pressure system this afternoon. Light wind with an easterly component primes the boundary layer with moisture off the mostly frozen lakes and melting snow on land for a fog setup tonight. Wind drops off after sunset to promote fog development and IFR visibility after midnight subdued slightly by lingering coverage of broken cirrus toward DTW into sunrise Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into Sunday morning.

* Low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight and Sunday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

A diffuse area of high pressure has settled across the Great Lakes which has brought about clear conditions this morning and will lead to another round of dry weather through the day. For the afternoon, the temperature high forecast is nuanced and will be predicated on the degree of inland advancement of the stratus deck now over Lake Huron and northern lower Michigan. Low level flow will veer through the morning which will accelerate the expansion of the status towards the Tri- Cities and northern Thumb where it will likely stall out and eventually scour and deflect back into Lake Huron as flow begins to back southwest through the afternoon. Influence of both the northerly flow and overcast conditions for part of the peak diurnal cycle will have the ability to cap highs in the 30s. For locations south of the stratus deck, especially closer to the MI/OH border and Metro region, the stronger insolation through a building translucent cirrus deck and mixing out of the nocturnal inversion with inversion heights peaking around 7C will push temperatures highs in the 40s, with highs in the mid to upper 40s not out of the question.

Overnight, calm to light winds at the surface and clear skies will bring the chance for fog development overnight. With temperatures dropping below the freezing mark, some periodic freezing fog will be possible. Statistical MOS guidance lends support for fog development overnight, possibly dense at times, however, confidence on coverage is low at this time. Will introduce patchy freezing fog to this forecast package noting the conducive environment for potential development.

The trend of above normal temperatures and quieter weather will continue through the early week period. The next probable window for precipitation will enter between late Tuesday night to Wednesday as a Pacific wave arrives onshore, inducing low pressure as it traverse across the Rockies, with the low pressure system forecasted to enter the Midwest. Ensemble QPF means between the CMCE/GEFS/EPS ensemble set and respective deterministic output brings high confidence that the Great Lakes region will see precipitation, owing to the large footprint of isentropic ascent along the elongated baroclinic zone.

The higher uncertainty will surround around precipitation type as cluster phase space analysis continues to highlight the degree of troughing across the Plains as the main point of uncertainty. This will have impacts on the final track of the low pressure system and thus degree of warm sector influence across SE MI. Latest trends highly a less progressive and thus warmer environment for SE MI, favoring rain as the p-type for a greater portion of the cwa. This can be seen in the warmer temperatures and shrinking of interquartile spread within the EPS through the Metro region, but overall would need better sampling of the wave to increase confidence on these early trends. Any progressive/cooler solutions will favor chances for rain/snow or freezing rain. There will be additional chances for precipitation including some wintry weather Thursday into Friday as a secondary wave and low pressure system moves in through the Midwest/Great Lakes.

MARINE...

A weak pressure pattern holds across the region this weekend into early next week as the dominant storm tracks remain directed to the north and south. This maintains overall benign and mild conditions. A weak clipper/trough moves into the northern Great Lakes on Sunday with a slight uptick in S to SSW wind to around 10 to 15 kt. A similar weak system moves through on Monday as well. A period of more active weather is then likely by the middle of next week with multiple low pressure systems tracking through the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.