textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warm during the early week with temperatures peaking in the 40s Tuesday. A good chance of rain Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- Next chance of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night as arctic air moves into the region. Much colder conditions persist through the end of the week.

AVIATION

Area of MVFR stratus to the west has been slowing inching eastward through the evening as winds continue to turn from the northwest to more westerly. This should provide the final push needed to get the stratus over all the taf sites over the next hour or so. With drier air west of Lake MI, and guidance supporting a clearing trend late tonight, will hedge the forecast to mostly high clouds overnight toward morning. MBS and FNT look to hold stratus through part or most of Monday as the rest of the sites attempt to clear out. Winds will become gusty during the day out of the southwest.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for cigs aob 5000 feet through this evening, low tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

Northwest flow with a shortwave ridge has arrived in the wake of the progressive trough this morning. Gusty winds this afternoon begin to ease into this evening as mixing depths shrink and lower level wind speeds decrease. Flow will also usher in a drier airmass offering a glimpse of the sun this afternoon. Clouds look to fill back in as winds back to the west and southwest this evening sending Lake Michigan moisture into the area. This change in lower level flow will mark the beginning of a warm advection stretch. A clipper system will be trailing the passing ridge tonight/tomorrow morning. Forcing with this system will be weak and tied closer to the wave as it passes over the north/central Great Lakes while overall moisture depth will lacking too. Nothing more than a low chance for a few flurries or brief light snow showers should result over northern portions of the Thumb. No appreciable accumulation is expected with this activity tomorrow morning.

The warm advection into the early week will increase temperatures Monday afternoon up into the mid-upper 30s. Monday afternoon and Monday night should be free of precipitation with overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s. Tuesday will see the warmest day of the week as 850mb temperatures reach 1-3C resulting in highs topping 40 degrees for much of southeast Michigan. Another shortwave/clipper system will dive into the Great Lakes during the day Tuesday. This system will have a little better moisture to work with, but the warmer daytime temperatures should bring predominately rain p-type after a short window of rain/melting snow chances in the morning at the onset. Expect at least low chances for rain to last into Tuesday night.

A stronger wave will dive out of Hudson Bay deepening the trough over the region Wednesday and setting up a stretch of below average temperatures that will last late week into the weekend. The reinforcing wave will send an arctic front through the region during the day Wednesday bringing a transition to snowfall Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Expect moderate to high probability for snowfall throughout the day Wednesday into Wednesday night along the advancing arctic front. Accumulations to around an inch look possible. Arctic air takes hold of the region with temperatures at 850mb plunging to below -10C Wednesday night. Current forecast for Thursday morning has wind chills dipping to zero or below to start the day. Temperatures late week into the weekend will top out in the 20s for daytime highs with overnight lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits most nights. Troughing and advertised active shortwave energy within that flow results in a broad brush of chance PoPs in the form of snow in the extended given uncertainty in timing and strength of shortwave features.

MARINE...

Active pattern continues over the next several days, albeit with slightly weaker gradient winds tonight once surface ridging briefly fills in behind the latest departing low pressure system. Gale Warnings drop-off according to schedule given declining gusts, but a short-fuse Low Water Advisory is in effect for western Lake Erie. Northwest flow is then expected to temporarily drop below 20 knots and back toward the WSW overnight. The next trough traverses the northern Great Lakes Monday morning leading to an uptick in prevailing winds to 25+ knots for much of the Huron basin by sunrise. Waves will likely remain elevated for the nearshore waters along the tip of The Thumb, thus Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Monday. Elevated flow persists Tuesday and turns southerly ahead of the next clipper. This could lead to extensions and/or expansions of Small Craft Advisories for portions of the southern Lake Huron nearshores, but gusts should hold below gales across the central Great Lakes. The low then slowly pivots through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, eventually forcing a cold front through. Post-frontal gales are possible late Wednesday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Low Water Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.