textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures through Saturday with mainly dry conditions.

- A warming trend lifts temperatures above normal Sunday through the middle of next week with increasing chances for showers and storms.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

DISCUSSION...

Height rises are underway this afternoon as a departing shortwave flattens and gets absorbed downstream into the longwave trough/upper low parked over Hudson Bay. Meanwhile, the next embedded speed max carves through Northern Michigan this evening and overnight, reversing geopotential height trends. Weak CVA is evident in mid level progs which could provide sufficient ascent atop shallow boundary-layer saturation. This might spur a few light showers/sprinkles into the early overnight hours, mainly over The Thumb where moisture parameters are more favorable. Prior to 20Z a lone meso-gamma scale shower (or virga) was noted per KDTX reflectivity data.

Surface high pressure centers over the Upper Midwest and Mid- Mississippi Valley converge on Lower Michigan Friday with weakening northerly flow in the wake of a secondary cold front. This helps offset high temperatures by a couple of degrees, near or slightly below 80F as 850 mb temperatures briefly dip into single digit territory (Celsius). High pressure quickly exits across the eastern Great Lakes Friday night with return flow resulting in gradient winds flipping southwesterly. A shorter wavelength southern stream ridge moves across The Plains on Saturday. Dry conditions continue another day, while a warming trend also gets underway Saturday which should last into the first half of next week. Warm advection and isentropic ascent-driven showers could develop as early as Sunday morning with higher confidence in occurrence for areas north of I- 96. The ridge axis amplifies and centers over the state on Monday. Precipitation chances will then be governed by MCS activity until mid-week as a muggy and unstable air mass situates in the vicinity.

MARINE...

A weak secondary cold front is in the process of sinking south through the central Great Lakes this evening. Frontal passage brings no real changes to current conditions aside from shifting winds to a more northerly component. High pressure becomes established over the region late this evening resulting in diminishing winds and waves. Said high then drifts overhead Friday into early Saturday maintaining lighter winds and quiet weather.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.