textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance (30-50%) for some showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-94, with the higher end of this range favored near the MI/OH border.

- The strongest storms that develop could produce localized wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph and small hail

- Dry weather and near-normal temperatures settle in for the weekend.

- High confidence for above normal temperatures (90+) next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low to medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet this morning. Medium by mid morning into the afternoon.

* Low for thunder tomorrow afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

Prior day precipitation with more favorable clearing across the northern half of the cwa has produced a more muddled environment with conditions ranging between periodic stratus and patchy fog. Expansion of low-level stratus will cease and dissipate through the morning with daytime heating. For the afternoon, the stalled frontal boundary extending from near Hillsdale west-northwest through Battle Creek to Holland will be the primary focus for renewed daytime convection, supported by low-level moisture convergence along the boundary. Convective development will be most favorable along and south of I-94, with probabilities increasing towards the Michigan/Ohio border. Where convection develops, 1200-1500 J/kg of SBCAPE combined with sufficient bulk shear may support a few organized storms. The strongest cells could produce localized downburst winds of 40-60 mph and small hail. The limited and uncertain convective coverage should keep these hazards isolated. Shower and thunderstorm chances end by the evening as the convergent boundary moves south of the state.

High pressure builds in through the weekend, supporting dry weather and extended periods of sunshine. Daytime highs and lows hang out around seasonal normal values in the mid 80s to low 60s, respectively. A strong dome of high pressure across the Rockies will lose some amplification early next week as a series of mid-level waves carve through the southern Canadian Provinces. This will fold the elevated temperatures across the Plains into the Great Lakes next week, with 850mb temperatures of 18-22C arriving across SE MI by Monday. Strong mid-level subsidence will help support dry and mostly sunny conditions through at least the early week period which, coupled with the thermal advection, will likely push daytime highs back into the 90s. At present time, Tuesday and Wednesday look to have the most favorable chance to see highs peaking towards the mid 90s, coinciding with the stronger waa. Above normal temperatures have potential to continue into the end of the forecast period (Thu- Fri), however the 500mb height contours become increasingly oriented northwest to southeast, establishing a more direct midlevel flow connection from the High Plains into the Great Lakes. This may allow upstream convection, or at least its associated cloud debris, to progress into the region.

MARINE...

A weak cold front stalls near the Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie vicinity this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible in this area, mainly from late this morning into the early afternoon. Isolated storms may capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 34 kt. Meanwhile, high pressure builds across the northern Great Lakes today which maintains north to northeast wind of 10 to 15 kt for much of the area. Gusts may briefly reach near 20 kt this afternoon across southern Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay due to favorable fetch orientation. The high pressure eases farther south on Saturday and Sunday, maintaining benign marine conditions with light wind that becomes variable as the high passes overhead.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.