textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- No precipitation expected through the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

AVIATION

High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley will maintain favorable aviation conditions across the terminals today and most of tonight. A low pressure system crossing the northern Great Lakes offers a slightly higher cloud fraction for MBS, and possibly FNT, but VFR conditions are still expected to persist. Winds (generally) AOB 10 knots veer from SW to W this evening, before trending toward calm by Saturday morning. Some evidence of weak low-level moisture advection could increase low clouds based from 3-4 kft AGL, but still expect more SCT than BKN conditions overnight. Should low clouds underachieve, morning MVFR fog would be possible given dew points and nocturnal cooling potential. Opted to introduce a 6SM VFR visibility reduction for Saturday morning. High clouds fill in later in the day as a low pressure system moves across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Winds remain light and variable on Saturday with diffuse surface high pressure over Lower Michigan. Light flow organizes southeasterly.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies have favored efficient radiational cooling supporting current temperatures in the single digits to low teens across SE MI. This setup has taken place under high pressure that has drifted southeast, which will track into the Carolinas by this afternoon. A compact shortwave translating southeast across western Ontario will quickly pass over Lake Huron this afternoon and evening. This wave remains far enough removed from the cwa, holding organized snow activity north of the region. The only local exception will be the northern Thumb, where a low-end chance (10%) to get clipped remains on the southern fringe of the mid-level forcing.

The weekend and into early next week favors continued quiet weather with above normal temperatures as quasi-zonal flow across the Great Lakes allows milder Plains air to translate east. Farther south, guidance remains consistent in a southern stream wave that lifts from the southern Plains into the Southeast this weekend. Associated isentropic ascent and deeper moisture is projected to hold south of the Michigan state line, favoring a dry outcome locally.

Increasing potential for active weather by the early to midweek period, first from a northern stream wave that amplifies south across the central Canadian Provinces, which in turn will push a cold front across northern lower Michigan Monday into Tuesday. The overall forcing along the front looks modest at this time, but very low- end chances for snow showers will be possible if the frontal boundary reaches south into southern Michigan. The more significant potential will be associated with a Pacific wave that will come onshore across the continental Northwest early next week. This wave is projected to drive into southern California before rounding across the Rockies. Cyclogenesis and development of an associated low pressure system will then bring increasing chances for active weather through the midweek period as the low targets the Ohio Valley or Great Lakes region.

Confidence in active weather is moderate, noting the strong convergence within the NAEFS/EPS ensemble means regarding a storm track that targets the Great Lakes or within the vicinity. P-type will be highly sensitive to the final track of the low. This will be dictated by the magnitude of amplification of the longwave pattern across the Plains, which is where most of the variance is observed within the cluster phase space analysis (EOF1). A more amplified trough over the Plains would fave a less progressive pattern with stronger warm air advection, favoring rain, while a flatter/more progressive pattern will result in a south favored trajectory of the low and would mute the warm sector influence. This would increased probabilities for a snow and/or freezing rain event. Confidence is very low regarding any p-type forecasting this far out, but the aforementioned ensemble mean output and additional support from deterministic/AI models makes this an item to monitor in subsequent forecast cycles.

MARINE...

An area of high pressure will affect most of the central Great Lakes through the weekend. A clipper system is expected to cross the northern Lakes today bringing slightly stronger winds and a bit of snowfall to northern Huron. Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will prevail with gusts AOB 25 knots. The gradient relaxes tonight, after the system exits eastward, then trajectories veer WNW Saturday morning. A secondary surface high passes over Lower Michigan on Saturday leading to weak and variable winds. Winds then back southerly with time. Lighter flow continues Sunday while a weak frontal boundary turns weak prevailing flow westerly Sunday evening. A split-flow configuration keeps winds AOB 15 knots early next week with minimal opportunities for precipitation.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.