textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 1 PM Wednesday. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with highest amounts between I-94 and I-69.

- Chance of snow showers tonight and Thursday, with additional accumulations up to an inch.

- Dangerously cold conditions Friday into this weekend. Minimum wind chill below -10F expected Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning.

AVIATION

Active stretch of weather across the region through tonight. Initially we have a warm front lifting into SE MI ahead of a low approaching southern Lake MI. This is resulting in widespread MVFR CIGs with IFR VSBYs in the heavier snow showers. Best moisture exits the area around 15Z with lingering light snow around, mainly across the northern sites. Cold front will sweep through this afternoon providing another window of possible moderate snow showers, especially north of PTK. All the while, dry air is surging into the area from the south which has been pushing VFR CIGs into southern MI. Hires models are picking up on this drier air so will hedge forecast to slightly more optimistic CIGs this afternoon. Yet another cold front will sweep through tonight around 4-9Z which will again present a window for light snow accumulations with higher chances for MBS and FNT. Winds will start off out of the south before turning to the southwest and gusting to 25 knots behind the first front this afternoon. Second front will bring in drier air and turn winds more westerly.

For DTW...Snow has spread across the region with the bulk of the activity and accumulation occuring in the first few hours of the forecast. Trends were for drier air to ease into southern MI which will shift snow totals a bit lower, closer to 2 inches. Possibly less if the trend north continues. Light snow is possible again this afternoon with the cold front pulling lake effect across the state but currently the better snow looks to hold north.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet through today and tonight.

* High for precip type as snow through today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 411 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

DISCUSSION...

A clipper system is arriving from the west early this morning, bringing widespread light snowfall to the area through the morning commute and into the midday period. This occurs as a mid-level trough engages the baroclinic zone draped from the Ohio Valley into the Midwest, inducing a corridor of deep layer isentropic ascent as the surface low forces the warm front northward. The snow will continue blossoming in coverage over the next couple hours, peaking between roughly 6 and 10 AM, then begin to wane early afternoon as the dry slot rides in aloft. Global ensemble data has remained relatively stable with regard to QPF, but have noted a slightly drier and farther north trend in 00z hi-res guidance. Signal is not strong enough to deviate much from the prior messaging of 1 to 3 inches, which still looks like a good range for the bulk of the area. Did nudge accumulations down slightly for areas south of I-94 where potential is greatest for dry air to cut into rates this morning. The higher end of the forecast range, and potentially up to around 4 inches, is still targeted near the M-59 corridor. With travel impacts likely through midday, no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory which will remain in effect until 1 PM.

Warm advection on breezy southwest flow will cause temperatures to rise from the mid teens this morning into a brief period of near 30 degrees, then the cold front passes through to send temps back into the 20s this evening. Low-level moisture lingering after the bulk of the snowfall departs may be sufficient to produce pockets of drizzle or flurries this afternoon, otherwise drier conditions are expected in between waves. A trailing shortwave will then pass overhead late this evening, sending in another cold front with a boost in low- level moisture and forcing to bring a chance for snow showers overnight. Expect the bulk of these showers to focus north of M-59 where there is some signal for a brief but notable flare-up in fgen/omega along the front, as well as slightly better moisture availability. Additional accumulations on the order of 0.5 to 1" will be possible where showers track. Potential is also there for higher amounts if a band becomes briefly stationary, but this carries low predictability.

Fresh cold advection engages the lake effect to carry pockets of snow showers or just flurries across the state on Thursday amidst blustery west flow keeping wind chill in the single digits. An uptick in snow squall parameter highlights an environment supportive of localized squall activity should any more robust showers emerge, but the background rising height field offers little synoptic support for this through the day. Another arctic front arriving in the evening signals slightly better support for snow shower activity.

In the wake of the Thursday night front, temps tumble to the single digits and stay locked there through the day Friday as 850mb temps plunge to near -30C. This value sits below the moving average of daily min in the SPC sounding archive and is within 5 degrees of the all time record low. Another blustery day with a persistent westerly gradient on Friday, keeping wind chill near -10F or below from before dawn into the afternoon. Arctic high pressure then builds in from the west Friday night, reducing the wind chill factor but simultaneously allowing actual temp to crater well below zero early Saturday morning. If the current forecast verifies with highs in the single digits and lows in the negative teens, this will be the coldest period since January 2019. An expansive winter storm impacting the southern CONUS this weekend will lift toward the eastern seaboard on Sunday, with some guidance extending its moisture shield into the southern and eastern Great Lakes. For now, a 30% chance PoP is warranted.

MARINE...

Large-scale troughing becomes reestablished over the central Great Lakes today as an embedded disturbance delivers slightly milder conditions and additional snowfall. While gradient winds will remain elevated, Small Craft Advisories are no longer needed as the nearshore waters have all become ice covered. Isolated gusts to gales are possible Thursday afternoon for portions of central and southern Lake Huron as the next arctic front pushes through. Since persistent gales are not expected, no gale watch was issued at this time. Renewed freezing spray concerns arise for portions of the Lake Huron open waters, thus Heavy Freezing Spray warnings may be needed. Much colder conditions settle in behind the front by Friday (and for much of the weekend) providing additional periods of snowfall and elevated northwest flow.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for Friday, January 23rd.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1883) Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1959) Saginaw: 3 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low min temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.