textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and near-normal temperatures this weekend.

- High confidence for above normal temperatures (90+) next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet through late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

An extended period of dry weather along with increasing temperature trends will lead to above normal temperature with highs in the 90s by next week. A strong heat dome located across the continental west and centered over the Rockies will fold over into the Midwest/ Great Lakes through the weekend and into next week as multiple mid-level waves carve through the southern and central Canadian provinces. For this weekend, mid-level heights increase as diffuse high pressure settles across the Great Lakes, with the elongated pressure axis of around 1022mb pivoting over southern Michigan Sunday into Monday. There is just enough low-level moisture to likely support some afternoon cu this afternoon which will lead to mostly sunny skies tomorrow. Seasonal normal temperatures expected this weekend characterized by highs in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

Upper-level ridge axis will fold into the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, greatly enhancing mid-level subsidence as 850 mb temperatures of 20-22C arrives overhead. This will promote extended periods of sunshine, while the arrival of the thermal ridge brings likely chances to see highs aoa 90 as early as Monday, but most favorable by Tuesday. Temperatures reaching into the mid 90s will be most plausible across the urban Metro region with an additional signal located across the Tri-Cities. The latter of which coincides with the core of the low-level thermal ridge, where deep mixing may be augmented locally by weak downslope flow into the Saginaw Valley. Continuation of above normal temperatures will be possible Thursday and Friday but high uncertainty to achieve 90+ given better northwest to southeast orientation of 500mb height contours. This increases probabilities for upstream convection and/or cloud debris to progress into SE MI, modifying temperatures, especially with any precipitation.

MARINE...

High pressure situated over the northern Great Lakes region will gradually strengthen and shift southward Saturday into Sunday. This will lead to quieter marine conditions through the entire weekend. Lighter northeast winds today will become variable as the high passes overhead.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.