textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures recover into the lower 60s this afternoon.

- Turning warmer tomorrow with a Marginal Risk for severe weather roughly along and south of the I-69 corridor.

- Below normal temperatures return Sunday and likely persist through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

A moderating south-southwest lower level flow develops today helping draw 850mb temperatures above 0C this afternoon. This along with greater insolation has helped the highs this afternoon reach into the 60s. Mixing depths today climb to 5kft or above, but weak flow through the column will keep gust potential minimal. A boundary is draped across the southern Michigan border and west through northern IN and IL. Low level convergence along this boundary beneath a weak shortwave is supporting a boost in clouds and scattered showers in this corridor. Thus, will maintain the low end PoPs into tonight given the weak surface reflection and weakly supportive thetae. The better PoPs are focused south of the state. The warmer airmass will bring overnight lows up into the 40s tonight.

Higher likelihood for a widespread coverage of showers tomorrow morning and afternoon as a cold front will be pushed through the area by a stronger shortwave trough diving out of central Canada. Favorable diurnal timing will see around 500 j/kg of MLCAPE/MUCAPE develop across southeast Michigan ahead of the front with steepening lapse rates. This will support a chance for isolated thunderstorms capable of hail and gusty winds. Greater instability may develop in the afternoon, making the afternoon the better isolated thunderstorm threat. Some machine learning probabilities are highlighting this slightly higher thunderstorm potential. Wind fields with the low level jet ahead of the front will have 40-45 kts of flow at 850mb. An isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will be in the realm of possibilities tomorrow afternoon. Overall instability will the question if earlier day clouds/rain become a limiting factor. Enough is in place for a Marginal Risk of severe weather to be hoisted for roughly along and south of the I-69 corridor for the afternoon thunderstorm potential.

Typical post-frontal northwest wind shift will occur bringing drier conditions and a cooler airmass into the region for Sunday. After the upper 60s on average for Saturday, afternoon temperatures will be down into the upper 50s and low 60s for Sunday. Dry weather carries into Monday and Tuesday morning. Minimum temperatures Monday morning and Tuesday morning will dip into the mid 30s, which may bring some frost concerns. Confidence is too low this far out with respect to cloud cover and dewpoints to highlight any impact. Long range models point to a PacNW wave moving along the north end of the southwest US ridge that will arrive over the central Great Lakes Tuesday evening. Ahead of this wave will bring the next chance at widespread rainfall with increasing chances Tuesday afternoon. Thunderstorm potential looks low at this time given the limited instability upon arrival during the later part of the day into Tuesday night.

MARINE

Stalled front along the southern Great Lakes will keep rain chances around fro Lake Erie the rest of the day, but pretty quiet across the rest of the area as high pressure holds through the day. A low pressure system is starting to develop over northern MN which will track across Lake Superior tonight drawing a warm front through the local area. Winds will become southerly tonight into Saturday with gusts to around 20 knots. There remains a small window where we could see some gusts reach 25 knots, mainly for Saginaw Bay, immediately ahead of, and behind the cold front which will pass through around 22-01Z Saturday evening. The cold front could also result in showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Another weak cold front may clip northern Lake Huron Sunday, otherwise a bit quieter as high pressure builds back in with westerly or northwesterly flow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Pockets of mid cloud are currently clipping southern portions of the airspace, while broader coverage of diurnal cu has developed. Light winds organize out of the southwest tonight ahead of low pressure that drags a cold front across the area Saturday afternoon. Pre-frontal moisture surge early Saturday morning will be anchored to a ~40 knot low level jet, favoring low stratus development rather than fog due to the turbulent boundary layer. The stratus deck then erodes mid-morning, in time for the onset of diurnal mixing and destabilization. Higher confidence item is the development of breezy southwest winds gusting to 30 knots. Lower confidence item is the potential for thunderstorm development as the boundary layer destabilizes late morning-early afternoon. Any morning shower activity carries a low chance for a rumble of thunder due to steepening mid level lapse rates, although the better chance for thunderstorms will be after 16z.

D21/DTW Convection...A cold front will track across SE Michigan Saturday afternoon. There is a low chance for a broken cluster/line of thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon, most likely between 16z and 21z. Isolated severe weather is possible

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Saturday morning.

* Low for thunderstorms between 16z and 21z Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.