textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Near average temperatures today with a bit more sun.

- Gradual but steady warm-up commences Friday and persists into the first half of next week. Much above normal high possible by mid next week.

AVIATION

The Lake Michigan moist plume continues to provide intervals of strato cu across Se Mi. Marginal cold air over the central portion of the lake has led to intervals of clearing. However, the persistence of a deep low level inversion continues to hold some low level moisture in place. Recent satellite trends and latest model soundings are indicating some re expansion of the clouds this morning. Given the persistence of the inversion today, a prevailing ceiling will be carried this afternoon. Observations and latest model guidance indicate ceilings likely hovering around the 3000 foot MVFR/VFR threshold. High pressure expanding into the region from the west this afternoon/evening and warm air advection over Lake Mi will reduce the chances for low clouds to persist into tonight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. Low tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

DISCUSSION...

Southern lower MI remains under the western edge of lingering upper troughing as surface high pressure builds in through the day. This high lightens northwesterly winds reducing lake moisture transport as well as increasing subsidence, the combination of which promotes more of a mix of sun and clouds today (rather than mostly cloudy like yesterday). While the overall airmass is unchanged from yesterday, better shot at more sun today does offer an extra degree or two of warming with highs forecast to be near the freezing mark for all but Thumb.

Surface ridge axis shifts to our east by Friday morning setting up weak WAA as S-SW return flow develops. This pattern holds through the weekend as spilt upper level flow maintains low amplitude ridging across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Subsequent high temps steadily warm each day from upper 30s Friday to mid 40s by Sunday. Spilt pattern still expected to keep the then developing southern stream low well south towards the Tennessee Valley with the northern edge of the precip shield only reaching the Ohio Valley at max extent. A weak passing shortwave over the northern Great Lakes late Sunday likewise looks to miss the area to the north supporting dry conditions into the new week.

Long range models continue to advertise a respectable low passing over northern Ontario/James Bay Monday strengthening warm southerly flow into SE MI. This advection persists through the first half of the week as central CONUS upper ridging expands over the Great Lakes. Highs for the early to midweek period favored to be above to much above average with 50s possible by Wednesday, if not Tuesday for some areas.

MARINE...

Moderate northwest flow across the central Great Lakes will ease slightly this morning as high pressure tracks into the western Great Lakes. This high will spread southeast, situating into the Ohio Valley tonight into Friday morning. Wind will shift from the southwest and increase on Friday as a clipper system tracks across the northern Lakes. Gusts to 20 to 25 kt are forecast for a brief period during the afternoon. High pressure then passes over the region Saturday and Sunday with lighter winds. A weak cold front may pass through late Sunday, but mainly dry conditions and light winds are favored into early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.