textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remain well below average through the remainder of the weekend. Minimum wind chill Sunday and Monday mornings ranging between -5 and 5 degrees.

- Warming trend expected early next week with temperatures climbing above average Tuesday.

AVIATION

High pressure extending from northern Ontario to the mid MS valley moves over Lower Mi tonight and then slowly eastward during Sunday. VFR through the period is maintained by very dry boundary layer air while the position of high pressure also guards against movement of lake clouds into the region. Plains low pressure does spread thickening high clouds across the Great Lakes tonight which may show some virga Sunday morning. Otherwise, light snow holds well to the west and south of Lower Mi Sunday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Another bout of high magnitude cold entrenched locally will continue to mark conditions thru the rest of the weekend. Broad area of high pressure will govern conditions tonight, as a weak mid level wave embedded within prevailing mid level northwest flow tracks by to the southwest. Favorable underlying environment for radiational cooling with a weak gradient capitalizing on some periods of open sky. Low temperatures projected to dip into the single digits once again, netting sub-zero wind chill in the coldest areas. A deep layer of dry air within general subsidence ensures dry conditions hold to finish the weekend. Modest diurnal temperature recovery expected Sunday as upper heights build, but with low level easterly flow capping the response. Highs again mid teens to lower 20s. One final night for lows of single digits by Monday morning with surface ridging maintaining influence, assuming coverage of cloud cover remains low.

A transition in the large scale pattern toward more zonal flow of pacific origin will effectively dislodge the arctic profile early next week. Initial stages of a more meaningful warming trend will commence Monday, although still capped by a slightly backed, south- southeast gradient and prospects for higher cloud coverage as the mid level warm frontal zone works through. Highs back into the mid- upper 20s. Weak shortwave energy rolling across the inbound elevated warm frontal zone may offer a very low probability for light snow shower/flurry production Monday or Monday night, but limited moisture depth or tangible upward vertical motion outside of the advective process precludes any defined mention at this stage. A more pronounced window for warm air advection as southwest flow increases depth occurs Monday night into Tuesday. This will bring temperatures to above average levels, with readings peaking in the 35 to 40 degree range.

Weak moisture starved cold front arrives late Tuesday, effectively edging temperatures back closer to normal for the latter half of the week. Extended model guidance suggests southeast Michigan will remain north of an active upper jet stream originating out of southern Pacific. This will leave the region void of meaningful system dynamics with a storm track across the southern conus favored. As a result, outgoing forecast carries generally dry conditions through the end of the forecast period, with temperatures edged slightly on the colder side of mid February norms.

MARINE...

High pressure settles into the Ohio Valley for the weekend. Northwest flow relaxes today as the gradient weakens, with a gradual shift to southeast flow by Sunday evening. Winds and waves remain comfortably below headline thresholds through Tuesday until the next low tracks across Ontario Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another strong arctic front settles across lower Michigan during this timeframe, increasing winds and gust potential to 30 knots or greater. Otherwise, periods of snow will be possible Monday through Wednesday especially across northern portions of Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.