textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM for areas north of I-96, as actual temperatures start out 5 to 20 below zero across most areas.

- Lake effect snow showers from Lake Huron impact the Eastern Thumb region tonight into Saturday morning with localized 1-3" accumulations.

- Sunshine on Sunday leads to temps climbing into the lower 20s, with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

AVIATION

VFR stratus lingers near the southern metro terminals with clearing across FNT and MBS to start the day. Light and variable winds in parts of southeast Michigan will organize out of the northwest this afternoon while holding below 10 knots. There will be some moisture that remains under an inversion and may result in scattered VFR based cloud development this afternoon. A good amount of dry arctic airmass will likely limit coverage. Low chance for light snow showers/flurries to develop tonight after 00Z that will drift southward with time. Will introduce a PROB30 for -SHSN for now to highlight this low potential.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5000 feet today. Moderate tonight.

* High for p-type of snow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and calm winds north of M-59 have allowed/will allow temperatures to fall to 5 to 20 below zero. Clouds have been slowly eroding along and south of M-59 as well, which should allow for temps to continue to lower through sunrise. Although winds are basically calm, we will continue the cold weather advisory, as some light winds begin to develop shortly after sunrise.

Upper level trough/shear axis centered over the Western Great Lakes will continue to drop south-southeast into tonight. Subsidence behind the shear axis will kick in late tonight into Saturday, allowing for warming at the 850 MB layer, as 850 MB temps rise above -10 C by Saturday evening. However, before this warming occurs, there does look to be a period of lake effect activity over the Thumb region with the prolong northeast winds developing late this evening and persisting through Saturday. NAM soundings look favorable with pretty good 925 MB lift and supersaturation with respect to ice in the DGZ. Planning on calling for localized 1-3" inches of lake effect snow over the eastern Thumb region. Expect ice cover to limit the moisture flux, lowering inversion heights Saturday morning, and movement of the bands to keep accumulations in check. Otherwise, at least some flurries/light snow showers are probable elsewhere as surface trough/low level convergence tracks through southern lower Michigan tonight. Counting on clouds to hold min temps mainly above zero. However, the early evening may start out clear south of M-59, which probably will allow temps to crater at or below zero briefly, before rising slightly when clouds arrive. Even so, do not see wind chills reaching 15 below zero due to light winds, thus no cold weather advisory plan.

Upper level and surface ridging to finish out the weekend will allow for sunshine and warmer temps, as guidance temps suggest maxes in the low to possibly mid 20s for Sunday.

Weakening shortwave trough will bring a good chance of light snow on Monday, as a narrow moisture axis of 850-700 MB specific humidity up to 2 g/kg (per 00z euro) moves through. Lack of surface reflection and modest forcing suggests an inch or less, as bulk of the model solutions produce 5 hundreths or less of qpf.

Modest warming trend for the work week, supporting highs in the 20s. Depending on the strength of the low tracking into the western Great Lakes, could even make a run toward freezing on Friday.

MARINE...

The Great Lakes remain under broad upper troughing allowing arctic air to hold across the waters. Winds hold from the northwest at 10- 20kts with gusts up to 25kts through this evening. Trough influence keeps lake effect snow showers active though directed at the Canadian waters and southern Ontario. Some areas of freezing spray are possible in the ice-free waters however lack of strong winds prevent any widespread heavy freezing spray from developing. Slowly moderating airmass and the northern edge of Plains high pressure allows for gradually weakening winds falling at or below 20kts for the weekend. A weak clipper arrives late Monday but aside for scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts. Another high dropping out of the upper Midwest then follows for midweek.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063-068>070.

Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.