textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain with isolated thunderstorms will occur tonight.

- Gusty southwest winds are forecast Friday afternoon and evening. A wind advisory is in effect for the southern half of the forecast area.

- A little colder temperatures will occur this weekend with occasional chances for light snow.

AVIATION

A low pressure system lifting northward from central IL to Lake MI is pulling a warm front up through the region this morning bringing some low chances of rain during the latter half of the overnight. With the areas of showers weakening while they approach, will go with a tempo for a few hours to cover it. Still a non-zero chance of a stray lightning strike especially around Detroit but evening the few strikes seen over the last few hours have become few and far between. The rain is bringing an end to the persistent dense fog and most sites are now MVFR and may only dip slightly within the showers. Should be a lull in activity this morning before cold air advection and westerly winds with wrap around moisture bring another round of showers this afternoon. Will lean toward rain at this point but temps will be cold aloft which could mix in some snow flakes, but moisture is lacking in the snow flake production layer so will hold off at this point. Winds will become gusty Friday afternoon from the southwest with gusts approaching 40 knots from FNT southward, and up to 30 knots for MBS. Wind and cooler temps will allow CIGs to mainly stay around 2kft through the afternoon and into the overnight.

For DTW... Rain chances to start the forecast and again this afternoon. A stray lightning strike is possible this morning but coverage and confidence is so low will not include in the taf. Additional rain chances this afternoon with a low chance of snow wet flakes mixing in. Winds will gust to around 40 knots this afternoon from the southwest.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below 1/2SM through the rest of the night.

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight and Friday.

* High for ptype of all rain.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

DISCUSSION...

A weak short wave impulse and localized region of mid level frontogenetical forcing will continue on its northeastward trajectory across the forecast area late this afternoon. Steep mid level lapse rates has provided some scattered thunderstorms with a few reports of small hail. The eastern half of the forecast area remains influenced by the very stable marine layer and has continued to see low stratus and fog. There has been good erosion of this fog layer across the western sections of the forecast area. This may continue to work east during the early evening before nocturnal cooling and persistent easterly flow likely leads to a re expansion of the low stratus and fog. The easterly wind fields will increase during the night, which adds enough uncertainty as to dense fog potential to refrain from an advisory issuance at this time.

Rapid amplification of the mid level wave over NW Kansas into a compact upper low is forecast as it lifts into SE Wisconsin by Fri morning. Respectable deep layer ascent will be driven across srn Mi overnight into Friday morning along a preceding mid level vorticity axis. Broad upper divergence within the exit region of a 150 knot upper jet combined with the mid level height falls will support an axis of widespread showers traversing the region from south to north. Given continued steep mid level lapse rates, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible.

The upper low will track across northern Lower Mi during the day Friday. The mid level dry slot will end the rain chances early-mid Friday morning. Wrap around moisture will arrive during the afternoon within the axis of cold air. The lack of moisture depth will limit the chances of diurnal showers. Aggressive cold air advection from late Fri morning into the afternoon will transition the stable low level profile to unstable, thus fostering better mixing. This will be most notable during the afternoon as the depth of cold air and daytime mixing steepen low level lapse rates. The compact nature of the low to mid level low will result in a strong low level wind field across the southern lakes. Model soundings have a solid region of 40 to 50 knots at the top of the mixed layer from generally Owosso to Flint to Lapeer and points south. There has been a gradual increase amongst the probabilistic guidance for wind gusts around 45 MPH. This and in coordination with sounding offices will justify a wind advisory across the south half of the forecast area Friday. After morning temps in the 40s, temps will drop into the 30s Fri afternoon as cold air filters into the area.

The upper wave is forecast to shear apart as it slides across the eastern lakes Friday night into Saturday. Lingering low level troughing along a low to mid level moisture axis across Central Michigan will open the door to snow shower chances across the north. Marginally cold temps in the 30s will keep accumulations little to none. Although there is some model disagreement with respect to placement of a rapidly deepening low pressure system over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast Sunday, respectable agreement is shown holding some degree of mid and low level troughing across Lower Mi within a region of deep moisture. This will support a good chance for light snow, with some minor accumulations possible.

MARINE...

Drier air is attempting to work in from the west, and has started to mix fog above one mile this afternoon. East flow persists and strengthens tonight as the next low lifts toward the Great Lakes Friday. The low reaches the Lake Michigan basin Friday morning, lifting an occluded front and widespread precipitation across the local waters. Winds in the warm sector veer from the east-southeast to the southwest, with the low/front reaching Saginaw Bay by Friday afternoon. Opportunities for gales exist as this system works through Friday, both north of the warm front and in the warm sector itself. For northern Lake Huron, stability and track of the low keep enough uncertainty in the forecast to keep gale headlines as a watch rather than upgrading to a warning at this time. The low has slowed down in recent model runs, so opted to extend the end time to 00z. Increasing concern exists for gale potential for western Lake Erie and possibly up to Lake St Clair as the warm sector boosts mixing depths in the midst of a 50-55 knot low level jet. The low then weakens Friday night before peeling off into Ontario by Saturday morning. Cyclonic flow holds in place through the weekend, while additional disturbances aloft keep wintry precipitation in play.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening for MIZ060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Watch from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ444.

Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ444.