textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple days.

- Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

DISCUSSION...

High pressure currently over Wisconsin will govern local conditions over the next several days, ensuring a dry and seasonable period for SE Michigan. Northerly flow maintains H8 temperatures in the low teens atop lake temperatures of 20+ C, which will be enough to keep lake moisture flux active over Lake Huron and generate pockets of diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Outside of this, mostly sunny skies are expected. Lingering cyclonic influence from the New England low keeps an elevated wind field aloft that the boundary layer will tap into this afternoon. Breezy conditions with gusts up to 25 mph are possible. A very similar day is in store for Thursday as the surface high makes little eastward progress, although less breezy as the more relaxed high pressure gradient gains influence.

Next wave to impact the Great Lakes will be en route today and Thursday as it rounds the crest of the 595 dam ridge over central CONUS. This will accelerate eastern progress of the ridge while also attempting to dislodge the thermal trough. The warm tongue will gradually lose strength though as it encounters deep troughing over eastern CONUS, meaning a less aggressive warm up than what we saw earlier this month--into the upper 80s for Friday.

The wave then brings the next opportunity for showers and thunder to SE Michigan Friday night. Model consistency then breaks down for the weekend, differing in if the wave stays progressive or cuts off over the Ohio Valley. Either way, SE Michigan looks to spend time under the deformation axis to keep cloud cover and rain chances in the forecast for at least part of the weekend. Only a handful of dry members exist for Saturday in the 00z ensemble suite, although that number increases Sunday. Ensemble members also largely favor temperatures to hold aob normal (mid-80s) for the weekend before a warm up is expected early next week.

MARINE...

Northerly flow persists today as we sit within the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Great Lakes and low pressure stalled over New England. Wind speed of 15 to 20 kt will be common with gusts to 25 kt possible at times across southern Lake Huron. The long fetch keeps wave heights elevated and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore waters. Dry conditions persist today into Thursday with wind and waves gradually subsiding on Thursday as the high pressure builds overhead. A chance of scattered showers and storms then arrives late Friday and Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.