textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow tapers off early this afternoon with temperatures climbing into the upper 20s to low 30s.

- Chance of snow showers tonight and Thursday, with additional accumulations up to an inch.

- Dangerously cold conditions Friday into this weekend. Minimum wind chill below -10F expected Friday, Saturday, and Sunday morning.

AVIATION

Final band of snow currently impacting southern portions of the airspace moves into Ontario within the next hour or so. Visibility improves quickly once this batch of snow ends, even as lighter snow showers continue through the afternoon. Southwest flow ushers in drier air across the southern airspace this evening while maintaining a steady stream of low cloud (sub-5.0 kft) north of PTK. Another glancing clipper arrives late tonight (after 04z), drawing a cold front across SE Michigan and reactivating lake effect snow showers as winds become westerly. Snow accumulations range between a dusting to 2 inches depending on if/where any banding sets up. Breezy conditions accompany the frontal passage with peak gusts to 30 knots. High variability to cig/vsby trends between 05z and 09z as the wave comes through, with lake induced stratocu holding on through Thursday morning. The cold airmass will continue to support light snow showers out of the lake plume.

For DTW...widespread snow comes to an end this afternoon followed by a scattering trend this evening. A clipper system brings a cold front through DTW between 05z and 09z Thursday. Current models suggest accumulations of a dusting to an inch, but if the band sets up over DTW this could be closer to 2 inches.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon and evening. High after 05z through Thursday morning.

* High for precip type as snow through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1013 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

UPDATE...

Center of the clipper low pressure currently resides over southern Lake Michigan and will lift northeast across the central portions of lower MI through the early afternoon. This maintains light snow across the bulk of SE MI through the 17-18Z timeframe with additional accumulations up to around an inch possible, focused north of I-94. Areas south have seen the nose of mid-level dry air attempt to push north of the state line, and while this likely won't continue given current radar returns over the Michigan-Indiana area, it will lessen total accumulations. No major updates to the running forecast with the expectation of an on-time expiration of the current advisory (1PM) still looking on track.

System's 'warm' sector expands over the region this afternoon as the low center vacates east with breezy southwest winds (gusting 20- 30mph) allowing temperatures to rise to around 30 with some lower 30s likely south of I-96/696. Hi-res model runs this morning continue to key in on enough residual low level moisture north of M- 59 to support scattered flurries/light snow showers as the primary lobe of vorticity rounds the trough into lower MI. Only minor accumulations possible with any of these snow showers (a couple tenths at most). Main update was to nudge up PoPs to chance (25-40%) across the northern half of the CWA through the evening. Soundings do advertise just enough saturation up into the DGZ to support sufficient ice nuclei to greatly limit/prevent freezing drizzle development.

PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 411 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

DISCUSSION...

A clipper system is arriving from the west early this morning, bringing widespread light snowfall to the area through the morning commute and into the midday period. This occurs as a mid-level trough engages the baroclinic zone draped from the Ohio Valley into the Midwest, inducing a corridor of deep layer isentropic ascent as the surface low forces the warm front northward. The snow will continue blossoming in coverage over the next couple hours, peaking between roughly 6 and 10 AM, then begin to wane early afternoon as the dry slot rides in aloft. Global ensemble data has remained relatively stable with regard to QPF, but have noted a slightly drier and farther north trend in 00z hi-res guidance. Signal is not strong enough to deviate much from the prior messaging of 1 to 3 inches, which still looks like a good range for the bulk of the area. Did nudge accumulations down slightly for areas south of I-94 where potential is greatest for dry air to cut into rates this morning. The higher end of the forecast range, and potentially up to around 4 inches, is still targeted near the M-59 corridor. With travel impacts likely through midday, no changes to the Winter Weather Advisory which will remain in effect until 1 PM.

Warm advection on breezy southwest flow will cause temperatures to rise from the mid teens this morning into a brief period of near 30 degrees, then the cold front passes through to send temps back into the 20s this evening. Low-level moisture lingering after the bulk of the snowfall departs may be sufficient to produce pockets of drizzle or flurries this afternoon, otherwise drier conditions are expected in between waves. A trailing shortwave will then pass overhead late this evening, sending in another cold front with a boost in low- level moisture and forcing to bring a chance for snow showers overnight. Expect the bulk of these showers to focus north of M-59 where there is some signal for a brief but notable flare-up in fgen/omega along the front, as well as slightly better moisture availability. Additional accumulations on the order of 0.5 to 1" will be possible where showers track. Potential is also there for higher amounts if a band becomes briefly stationary, but this carries low predictability.

Fresh cold advection engages the lake effect to carry pockets of snow showers or just flurries across the state on Thursday amidst blustery west flow keeping wind chill in the single digits. An uptick in snow squall parameter highlights an environment supportive of localized squall activity should any more robust showers emerge, but the background rising height field offers little synoptic support for this through the day. Another arctic front arriving in the evening signals slightly better support for snow shower activity.

In the wake of the Thursday night front, temps tumble to the single digits and stay locked there through the day Friday as 850mb temps plunge to near -30C. This value sits below the moving average of daily min in the SPC sounding archive and is within 5 degrees of the all time record low. Another blustery day with a persistent westerly gradient on Friday, keeping wind chill near -10F or below from before dawn into the afternoon. Arctic high pressure then builds in from the west Friday night, reducing the wind chill factor but simultaneously allowing actual temp to crater well below zero early Saturday morning. If the current forecast verifies with highs in the single digits and lows in the negative teens, this will be the coldest period since January 2019. An expansive winter storm impacting the southern CONUS this weekend will lift toward the eastern seaboard on Sunday, with some guidance extending its moisture shield into the southern and eastern Great Lakes. For now, a 30% chance PoP is warranted.

MARINE...

Large-scale troughing becomes reestablished over the central Great Lakes today as an embedded disturbance delivers slightly milder conditions and additional snowfall. While gradient winds will remain elevated, Small Craft Advisories are no longer needed as the nearshore waters have all become ice covered. Isolated gusts to gales are possible Thursday afternoon for portions of central and southern Lake Huron as the next arctic front pushes through. Since persistent gales are not expected, no gale watch was issued at this time. Renewed freezing spray concerns arise for portions of the Lake Huron open waters, thus Heavy Freezing Spray warnings may be needed. Much colder conditions settle in behind the front by Friday (and for much of the weekend) providing additional periods of snowfall and elevated northwest flow.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for Friday, January 23rd.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1883) Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1959) Saginaw: 3 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low min temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.