textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers early this morning with more expected this afternoon and evening. Additional minor accumulations are likely, but generally remain below 1 inch.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from tonight through Saturday morning due to dangerously cold conditions. Wind chills well below zero are expected, reaching a minimum of -15 to -25F Friday morning.

- Confidence is increasing for accumulating snowfall on Sunday, with potential for several inches across southeast MI.

AVIATION

Another day with multiple opportunities for snow showers across the area. There is a moderate to heavy lake effect band currently trying to stretch east into the Detroit/PTK taf site but how well it will hold together is in question as much of the activity overnight has scoured out. Will tempo the chance at the start of the forecast. Once westerly flow has a chance to organize for a few hours, could get a wider swath of lake effect working across the state focusing on PTK and FNT. A front will then drop down through the region this evening which would help to organize the afternoon showers and push southward through the area. Will highlight this with a prob30 to start. Otherwise could see light snow or flurries through much of the day not amounting to much or any accumulation. CIGs have been rising to VFR so expect some bouncing around between VFR and MVFR as shower activity picks up. Winds will be gusty to around 25 knots out of the W/SW today.

For DTW...Best shot at light accumulation will be at the start of the forecast as the next lake band tries to reach the site. Think any conditions below MVFR will hold to the west. Scattered afternoon snow showers should perk up and become more widespread as the front starts approaching and westerly flow helps lake bands make it further across the state. Low chance for any accumulations more than a half inch through the day.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet through this forecast. Low Friday.

* High for precip type as snow through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

DISCUSSION...

A weak clipper is passing over the area this morning, ushering in the return of arctic air in its wake later today. The ongoing round of snow showers will continue to focus along and south of M-59 before tapering off by late morning. The ensuing cold advection within blustery WSW wind will activate the lake effect and favor additional periods of scattered snow showers and flurries through the day. These should remain light early within a background rising height field, but will become a bit more organized this afternoon as the boundary layer deepens with increasing lapse rates. The best window for a higher coverage of showers with minor accumulations will be roughly 6 to 10 PM this evening as another arctic front passes through. Hi-res guidance cross sections show a healthy frontal circulation and transient omega/fgen flare-up so one or more bands may bring localized totals around 1 inch. This is most likely to set up between the I-94 and I-69 corridors. Otherwise, up to around a half inch is more likely for most of the area through tonight.

Tonight's front marks the arrival of bitter cold temperatures that will encompass the region Friday into this weekend. 850mb temps are progged to fall from about -13C this morning to near -30C midday Friday. Surface temps drop from the teens this evening to about zero Friday morning before recovering slightly into the single digits in the afternoon. WNW wind around 20 to 25 mph will make it feel much colder, with wind chill falling below zero this evening and bottoming out in the -15 to -25F range Friday morning. This will be the coldest period of the forecast when considering the wind. As the diurnal temperature swing kicks in and wind begins to subside through the afternoon, wind chills will rebound slightly but stay in the -10 to -15F range the rest of the day. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of Southeast Michigan overnight tonight through Saturday morning.

Strong arctic high pressure builds directly into the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday, with grand ensemble mean MSLP of around 1043mb coming in near the max in NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble climatology, or about 2.5 sigma above climo. This will be an extremely cold and dry air mass with clearing skies and dew points near -15F setting us up for overnight lows in the negative teens. This may challenge daily record low mins at all sites. High cloud associated with the southern CONUS winter storm is shown to build in Saturday morning which may mitigate the cold lows to a degree, especially if it arrives earlier than currently anticipated. Very light wind during this period will keep wind chill closer to the actual air temp, still worthy of Cold Weather Advisory coverage.

Probability has continued to increase for SE MI to see some snowfall on Sunday as the expansive southern CONUS system gets pulled up the Ohio Valley and Appalachians. The system will be driven by an upper low currently off the west coast that eventually phases with a negatively tilted trough dropping over the Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend. Model spread is still high with regards to how these waves interact and the subsequent track of the surface low(s), but worth noting the increasing potential for a farther west track that could affect the area with accumulating snow. The latest winter storm outlook from WPC highlights far SE MI with a 10 to 30% chance to see over 7 inches of snow by Monday morning, and have included likely snow chances in the forecast this package.

MARINE...

Departure of low pressure into Ontario and Quebec will push a very strong arctic cold front across the Great Lakes today and Friday which will bring the continuation of active weather and breezy conditions.

The combination of the strengthening pressure gradient and strong over lake instability will support sustained winds around 20 to 25 knots with gust potential around 30 to 35 knots, with gust to gales favored across central and southern Lake Huron. Confidence continues to increase to see a gust to gales favored this morning through tomorrow morning which has prompted the issuance of a Gale Warning. Additionally, a Heavy Freezing Spray warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron given the intrusion of arctic temperatures and sustained elevated winds.

Snow squalls will be likely today and tomorrow, especially across central and northern Lake Huron where surface convergence is enhanced. Expect rapid reductions to visibility within any squall. A very strong high pressure system to then settle across the Great Lakes this weekend which will maintain arctic temperatures but will allow wind speeds to rapidly diminish.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for Friday, January 23rd.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1883) Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1959) Saginaw: 3 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low min temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363- 462>464.

Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ363- 462>464.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.