textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills late tonight and Thursday morning drop into the 10 to 15 degrees below zero range, and then between 10 and 20 degrees below zero Friday and Saturday morning.

- Intervals of flurries or light snow showers will develop at times during late week period. Minimal accumulation expected.

AVIATION

Ongoing dry air advection within northwest flow will scour out lingering low clouds and flurries across the metro Detroit terminals prior to TAF issuance. Decreasing winds with occasional VFR based clouds will then hold through Thursday morning. Subtle moisture advection into Se Mi Thurs afternoon in advance of an arctic front will support an expansion of VFR based strato cu.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet Thursday morning. Moderate Thursday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

DISCUSSION...

Overlake convective depth associated with entrenched arctic air proving efficient in maintaining a steady downstream flux of lake moisture in westerly flow. Productive lake cloud toward generating intervals of light snow showers and flurries given a saturated profile with steep lapse rates between -15 and -20c. Ongoing activity remains fixated within the typically prone I-69 to I-94 corridor, with a gradual shift southward with time this evening before ending as flow veers toward the north-northwest with the passage of a weak impulse. Brief period of greater mid level forced ascent tied to the wave may provide a focus for some minor light snow production across mainly the thumb this evening as well. Additional accumulation going forward will remain minor. Attention then shifts to overnight cloud/wind trends and effective projection of low temperature and wind chill Thu morning. Model guidance offers a mixed signal on degree and timing of clearing overnight, with a subset of the solution space maintaining some degree of lake cloud throughout the night. Lower confidence in this scenario, with a tilt in trajectory toward the northwest often proving adequate to allow the dry ambient arctic profile to take greater hold. Forecast will lean into the higher probability for some areas of clearing, with lows reaching zero or slightly below most locations. Given a 5 knot gradient, this will park minimum wind chill in the -10 to -15 degree range.

Another period of high magnitude cold air advection will mark the late week conditions. Governing polar low currently fixated over Hudson Bay will eject southward over the next 36 hours, with the main height fall center and attendant cold core arriving locally Friday morning. Coldest of conditions expected between Thursday night and Saturday morning, with potential for a minimum in morning wind chill below -15F for some/all of locations Fri/Sat mornings. Still some uncertainty yet in the low temperature projection, as cloud cover could prove a limiting factor in the nocturnal cooling response. The periodic increase in moisture depth above 850 mb will maintain some intervals of flurries or light snow showers throughout this period. Limited moisture quality or concerted areas of forced ascent will preclude witnessing greater accumulation potential through Friday. Brief window for greater moisture flux off lake Huron into the eastern thumb may emerge Friday night/early Saturday as flow trajectory becomes north-northeast.

Resident arctic cold moderates only minimally throughout the weekend period as mean thicknesses see some recovery with the exit of the upper trough axis. Sub zero wind chill again projected for Sunday morning, while daylight temperatures peak in the lower 20s Sunday - or still a solid 10 degrees below average. Possible lake Huron moisture flux may again provide some areas of flurries or light snow showers Saturday. Otherwise, low-mid level ridging will offer dry and stable conditions to finish the weekend. Temperatures will remain on the colder side of average into early next week, but not to the extreme noted recently. The next chance for a more organized period of light accumulating snow tied to a clipper system and trailing arctic lobe set to arrive sometime Monday into Monday night.

MARINE...

The Great Lakes remain under broad upper troughing allowing arctic air to hold across the waters. Forecast through the end of the work week is largely a persistence forecast from what we've seen the last couple days. Winds shift to the northwest this evening but maintain strength, 10-20kts with gusts up to 25kts, with this flow holding through Friday. Trough influence keeps lake effect snow showers active though directed at the Canadian waters and southern Ontario. Some areas of freezing spray are possible through this timeframe in the ice-free waters however lack of strong winds prevent any widespread heavy freezing spray from developing. Slowly moderating airmass and slightly lighter winds continue to look to be in store for the weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.