textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid conditions Monday through Friday with wind chills occasionally reaching 15 below zero or colder. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect this evening through Tuesday morning for the first episode of dangerous cold wind chills.

- Snow showers around on Tuesday are expected to produce a dusting to an inch of accumulation, with a low chance for isolated snow squalls.

- A chance of light snow showers exists on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Sunny morning skies have given way to increasing cloud streaming in off Lake Michigan. Afternoon wind shift from northwesterly to westerly allows lake effect snow showers that had been largely confined to the west MI shore to release east over SE MI. With winds continuing to rotate to southwesterly by evening, lake moisture is quickly cutoff confining main snow shower potential today to this afternoon release. Overall the scattered, transient nature will keep accumulations minor with most areas seeing only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch of new snow with half inch amounts confined to heaviest snow showers.

Southwesterly wind strengthen this evening into tonight in response to another clipper sliding over the northern Great Lakes. This in combination with lows falling into the single digits, including negative single digits towards the Ohio border where clearer skies are favored for the first half of the night, drop wind chills into the 10 to 20 below zero overnight into Tuesday morning. Midland and far northern Bay counties still expected to see the 'warmest' wind chills, holding in the negative single digits instead, due to southwesterly flow drawing in the Lake Michigan plume. Pre-frontal trough works across southern lower MI between 08-12Z bringing a widespread area of light snow. Models continue to struggle to generate QPF with this feature owing to a general lack of available moisture, both residual and advected, and subsequent shallow column saturation. Running forecast will continue to favor the higher PoP- lower QPF setup with accumulations up to around a half inch. The actual arctic frontal boundary then drops through SE MI between 14- 18Z offering another window for more organized snow shower activity. While high-res models suggest some degree of lake moisture augmentation, soundings still show rather lackluster moisture/saturation keeping coverage rather narrow along the frontal boundary itself. Can't rule out an embedded snow squall or two with modeled snow squall parameter values at or above 2 and column wind fields still holding 30-40kts around fropa. Additional accumulations during this timeframe also forecast to only be up to around a half inch at most. Trailing lake effect potential looks to be brief and limited, only really persisting through the evening, as winds quickly weaken and turn west-southwest by night.

Airmass following the front sees 850mb temps fall to -22C by Tuesday night setting up another round of low temps near 0F. Weakening of winds under 10mph however keeps feels-like temps more borderline for cold weather advisory criteria (ie wind chills aob -15F) with the current forecast ranging -10 to -15. Given the advisory still in effect for tonight and the current borderline forecast, no headlines were considered with this package as further refinements are likely as we get closer.

A better surge of arctic air is set to arrive Thursday-Friday as the governing James Bay upper low pivots into northern Ontario drawing the airmass due south over the Great Lakes. 850mb temps around -25C expand over the central Great Lakes daytime Thursday capping highs for it and Friday in the lower teens. Thursday night likely will be the coldest night of the week as actual temps fall 5 to 10 below zero. With temperatures this cold, any amount of wind will bring feels-like temps towards the 15 to 20 below zero range with another cold weather advisory looking likely into Friday morning.

MARINE

Another arctic front will track through the Central Great Lakes tomorrow. Winds become southwest tonight ahead of the front, with gusts around 30 knots expected. A few brief gusts to marginal gales over the open waters of Central Lake Huron are also in play. Snow showers will accompany the front, transitioning to localized lake effect activity Tuesday evening and night over Lake Huron with northwest winds leading to a Lake Superior-norther Lake Huron connection. Low level winds back to the west by Wednesday morning and look to be around 20 knots or less through the day, as yet another arctic front and cold airmass arrives. Very cold airmass (negative mid 20s at 850 MB) will lead to lake induced trough on Thursday, with northerly winds kicking in to finish the work week. Wind speeds look to remain under 30 knots.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

AVIATION...

VFR conditions for several hours today until a possible round of lake effect makes it across the state this evening. Will keep a MVFR tempo going for a few hours until some better signal in radar images starts coming in. Skies will attempt to clear out, at least in the low levels, tonight for a bit as ridging slides across the state but the next trough is already approaching which will bring a period of lower clouds and light snow from about 08-12Z. Light snow may persist through the day as the front will follow a few hours later and additional lake bands will look to develop in the evening again. Westerly flow today will back to the southwest this evening through much of the rest of the forecast. Gusts will reach 20 knots this afternoon and near 25 knots tonight.

For DTW...Light snow showers this evening are possible which could result in a period of MVFR. Steadier snowfall arrives early Tuesday around 09-12Z with lower ceilings and visibilities likely. At this point MVFR looks most likely but could get some brief IFR visibilities within the snow showers. Additional snow showers possible through the afternoon and evening with as a front passes through and then lake effect begins.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon. High later tonight into Tuesday.

* High in precipitation type as snow.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ048-049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.