textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Frigid wind chills tonight falling in the negative single digits. Low teens wind chills Friday afternoon.

- Below normal temperatures persist this weekend and into next week.

- The next chances for light snow will be Friday night and Sunday. Sunday holds a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch.

AVIATION

Upper level confluence will support cold Canadian high pressure tonight. Strong static stability is advertised between 2.5 and 13.5 kft agl supporting little in the way of cloud. The preference is to carry SKC tonight. Surface winds tonight will be light to variable to calm and will emerge out of the southwest Friday ahead of another cold front. High clouds are expected to push into the region during the morning with an attempt at some top down saturation occurring late Friday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft tonight and Friday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 339 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

DISCUSSION...

A arctic airmass has settled over the Great Lakes with the expected frigid temperatures this afternoon. Temperatures in the teens to low 20s with single digit wind chills are expected to hold through the remainder of the afternoon even under sunny skies. Any isolated lake clouds this afternoon will diminish as light winds back out of the south tonight with mainly high clouds moving in across the north. The mostly clear skies brings opportunity for overnight lows to plummet down into the single digits with some spots towards the southern border falling below zero degrees. The light wind brings wind chills down into the negative single digits.

Surface high pressure slides to the east tomorrow allowing a southwest wind to draw in a slightly warmer airmass. Still expect daytime highs tomorrow to top out around the mid 20s with a 10 to 20 mph wind resulting in wind chills in the teens. Height falls arrive over the Great Lakes Friday night bringing the next chance to see snowfall. Relatively weak lift will reach southeast Michigan with the better forcing to the north of the CWA and moisture depth will be lacking with PWATs to a quarter inch and specific humidity of 2.2 to 2.4 g/kg. A dusting up to around a half inch looks possible and favored across locations north of I-69 through Saturday morning. Model soundings and local probability guidance does point towards a low potential for freezing drizzle towards sunrise Saturday morning as dry air strips any moisture from the DGZ ahead of a cold front. Confidence remains low and will continue to monitor trends for any impactful period of freezing drizzle.

Temperatures may rebound to the low-mid 30s for daytime highs Saturday with drier conditions Saturday evening. The passing cold front will send temperatures back down into the 20s for highs on Sunday for bulk of the area. Another wave tracking across the Great Lakes on Sunday bringing the next chance for accumulating snowfall. The renewed colder airmass will bring high confidence in an all snow p-type. Trends have been increasing for snow accumulation with latest probability guidance for achieving 1 inch over 12 hours up toward 50 percent in parts of southeast Michigan. Overall totals for this event should stay on the light side as moisture depth is still limited. High pressure keeps conditions largely quiet during the early week as below average temperatures persist. Active weather pattern holds into mid-week that brings more accumulating snowfall potential.

MARINE...

High pressure building across the area this afternoon is leading to rapidly improving conditions across the waters as northwesterly winds weaken. There will be a lull in winds this evening into tonight when winds drop to around 20 knots but this will be short lived as there will be another round of increased southwesterly winds starting late tonight into Friday morning ahead of the next system. This system will track through Ontario and will pull a cold front through early Saturday. Another round of Small Craft Advisories for Saginaw Bay have been issued as southwesterly winds again increase to around 30 knots. Could see a few gusts to 35 knot gales over central Lake Huron Friday, but should be isolated enough to avoid mentioning gales in the forecast at this point. Guidance did pretty well with the winds the last two days which lends to increased confidence with this next event.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for Thursday, December 4th.

Detroit: 23 Degrees (Set in 1895) Flint: 23 Degrees (Set in 1935) Saginaw: 22 Degrees (Set in 1991)

The record low min temps for Friday, December 5th.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1974) Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1991) Saginaw: 6 Degrees (Set in 1991)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.