textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold conditions continue today with wind chills below zero.

- Potential remains for light snow showers to develop with localized accumulations of a dusting to a quarter inch possible.

- Wind chills late tonight and Thursday morning drop into the 10 to 15 degrees below zero range, and then 15 to 20 degree below zero range Friday and Saturday morning.

AVIATION

Cloud bearing layer between 2.5 and 4.0 kft agl has been good for flurries or light snow this morning since the stratocumulus has pushed into the area. Supersaturation with respect to ice has occurred in temperatures of -15 to -20C. With the moisture ducted below the inversion and continued cyclonic flow, preference is to carry prevailing -SN throughout much of the day. There could be a larger coverage of activity between 23-03z as Lake Michigan moisture may advect across the state ahead of an approaching cold front. No significant snow accumulation is anticipated today. Model signal supports scattered ceilings tonight or clearing.

For DTW...Flurries or light is expected at DTW throughout much of the day. Snowfall rates are expected to remain very light with no significant snow accumulation.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet Wednesday.

* High in snow as precipitation type

* Low in ceilings of 200 ft or visibility restrictions to 1/2SM.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

DISCUSSION...

A very cold pattern continues today and into the weekend as an arctic airmass remains entrenched over the Great Lakes, featuring 850 mb temperatures in the minus 20C range.

Lake Michigan stratocumulus spreads eastward early this morning as low-level flow backs westerly. This should hold initial wind chills at (or above) current values into the mid-morning hours of around minus 10F. The next shortwave feature within the amplified eastern NOAM trough axis will facilitate a period of CVA. A lean, but sufficiently moist, ThetaE plume spreads across Lower Michigan during the latter half of the day. This aids in the development of scattered lake-augmented snow showers. Weak convergence enhancement remains possible across the middle third of the CWA, corresponding with the higher PoPs (between I-94 and I-69). Overall accumulations should be light and variable, conditional on areas that experience the most frequent intersection of lake bands. Low confidence in any accumulations above a fluffy quarter inch. Additional forcing marked by a quick glancing surface trough over The Thumb noted in several deterministic solutions, supporting a lagged light snow response for this evening. Partial clearing then leads to nocturnal cooling with reduced westerly gradient wind and lows dropping AOB 0F. This sets up marginal Cold Weather Advisory conditions late tonight into Thursday morning with minimum apparent temperatures near, or slightly warmer than, minus 15F.

Governing 505 dam 500 mb low interfaces with a 150 knot jet streak extending across the Upper Midwest on Thursday after a retrograding polar wave descends southwestward over Hudson Bay. The low-level wind field weakens and veers NNW throughout the day which decreases the efficiency and longevity of lake effect. Still, weak ascent within a well-mixed cold lower troposphere environment will maintain low-end chances for flurry generation. The upper low eventually broadens and shears zonally as the cold reservoir spills southward with time on Thursday. This eventually ushers in a reinforcing blast of modified arctic air, attributed to the still partially unfrozen Great Lakes. Higher confidence exists in the Cold Weather Advisory conditions for the northern half of the CWA given an earlier arrival of the next round of cold advection, and slightly higher wind speeds. Some portion of the forecast area will require cold weather headlines.

The inverted mid-level circulation carves through The Plains on Friday with a highly ageostrophic base, but less consequential dynamics locally precludes any forced precipitation aside from additional flurries. Highs will struggle to get out of the single digits amidst northerly flow trajectories arcing back into the Canadian Prairies with similar overnight/morning wind chill concerns and additional opportunities for flurries and/or light occasional snow showers. Impressive central surface high pressure near 1050 mb tracks due south Friday night into Saturday keeping arctic air flowing across the Great Lakes. Minus double digit wind chills again Friday night into Saturday morning.

MARINE...

Brisk westerly winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots this morning continue today as yet another arctic front and frigid airmass arrives this evening. Snow showers will accompany the front over Lake Huron as it drops from north to south Wednesday night. Very cold airmass (negative mid 20s at 850 MB) will lead to lake induced trough and continued snow showers on Thursday, with northerly winds kicking in to finish the work week. Wind speeds look to remain under 30 knots. Slowly moderating airmass and mostly light winds look to be in store for the weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.