textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A very light mix of rain, freezing drizzle and flurries are possible this morning. This may lead to trace amounts of ice accumulation.

- Warmer conditions Friday, with a chance of rain showers.

- Above average temperatures will persist into the weekend.

AVIATION

Weak ascent is producing scattered radar returns that are moving across west central Michigan to lower southeast Michigan. Very brief light precipitation has been observed with temperatures that have been near or at the freezing mark. While bulk of these returns are west of the terminal corridor, some patchy freezing drizzle or mixed wintry precip remains possible through about 12-13Z. VFR conditions will largely prevail aside from a few scattered lower cloud bases this morning associated with light precipitation and associated cloud deck. Increasing influence of high pressure and surface dry air will lead to improving ceilings for this afternoon. Light winds below 10 knots today turn northwesterly this morning flipping out of the east-southeast this evening.

For DTW... There remains a brief window for very light precipitation as temperatures hovering near 32F. A brief observation of light freezing drizzle or light snow will be possible through about 12-13Z before dry conditions prevail the remainder of today.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet through this morning. Low this afternoon.

* Low for ptype this morning being a mixed precipitation.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

DISCUSSION...

Lower amplitude mid level northwest flow will continue to govern conditions to finish the work week period. Minor perturbation embedded within the mean flow will translate across the region today. This occurs atop a stalled elevated frontal zone and associated narrow low level moist plume. Minimal signal to suggest anything outside of a lower probability for light qpf production /if any/ at a very limited scale and duration as weak ascent washes through today. Forecast will continue to highlight simply a low end potential targeting south of I-96. Surface temps flirting near freezing at daybreak may allow for a couple observations of light freezing drizzle or flurries as moisture depth fluctuatues, particularly in the Irish Hills. No meaningful icing concerns given the expected brevity in occurrence, with temperatures then accelerating above freezing post-daybreak. Highs arriving in the 40s most locations, as a window of modest cold air advection atop the boundary layer proves minimally impactful.

Another low amplitude wave set to traverse the northern great lakes Friday. Projected system trajectory ensures the meaningful associated ascent and moisture advection within a broader region of warm air advection holds well to the north. Sounding data offers a generally dry and stable diurnal profile both with the modified early day warm sector and within the immediate post-cold frontal environment. Forecast will continue to highlight a lower probability for the southern expanse of more direct frontal forcing to glance across mainly the thumb region late Thursday night into early Friday. Frontal timing potentially stunting the magnitude of warming across the north, lending to a greater south to north thermal gradient with above average highs ranging from lower 60s to upper 40s.

No significant wx through at least Saturday. SE Michigan will reside south of the governing north pacific upper jet and within a quasi- zonal mid level flow north of a broadening southern conus ridge. Moderating thermal profile across this window maintains certainty for continued above average temperatures with dry conditions under high magnitude stability Saturday. Subtle height falls as the upper jet bends southward will draw an east-west elongated baroclinic zone across the lower peninsula Saturday night into Sunday. Limited residence time for meaningful forced ascent along the advancing elevated frontal slope before drier east flow south of expansive high pressure aggressively takes control. Forecast offers an appropriate chance mention for a mix of light rain and snow centered on Sunday morning, with pace of the cold air advection relative to precip timing carrying some uncertainty yet for ptype. Frontal timing with dictate whether notably colder post-frontal conditions for the latter half of the weekend or hold off until early next week.

MARINE...

Low pressure departing northeastern Ontario leaves a weak frontal boundary draped across the Great Lakes today with light, disorganized flow in place. Southerly winds then increase to around 15 to 20 kt Friday morning as a clipper system arrives over the northern lakes. Light snow is possible across northern Lake Huron, otherwise mainly light rain is favored as milder air works into the region. Wind shifts to northwest at around 15 kt as the system quickly departs late Friday, then a weaker pressure pattern maintains relatively light and disorganized wind on Saturday. A strong cold front sinks across the region on Sunday with gusty northeast wind of 20 to 30 kt. Probability for gales is low at this time, but Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed across southern Lake Huron due to wave heights around or above 4 feet. Expansive high pressure builds in behind the front on Monday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.