textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Tuesday with near record high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

- Breezy Tuesday with gusts to around 30 mph possible.

- Mild conditions continue Wednesday with increasing potential for light rain.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings 5000 ft or less tonight. Moderate Tuesday morning becoming low Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

A large upper level trough will move into the Plains today and will be the focus of the weather locally for the next several days. It slows it's eastward progress today as additional shortwave energy both from the southern stream and diving southward down the backside of the trough helps try to close off the base of the trough tonight. The system will first present us with a few very warm days with near record highs on Tuesday ahead of the trough. The stacked trough then cuts off and slowly drifts over the area through the latter half of the week present a few chances for rain heading into the weekend and cooler temps, albeit near normal for early November.

The upper level ridge axis crossed the area last night opening the door for southerly flow to kick up and begin the warm advection process. Combine this with heights building aloft and even with the wealth of cloud cover, temps will climb into the 60s today and low to mid 70s on Tuesday as the low level jet really ramps up. 850mb temps will rise into the low teens after being around 9C today. Record highs in the mid to upper 70s look to be possible. Winds will be another issue on Tuesday as the low level jet around 35 knots down to 1500ft could be mixed to the surface. Soundings and probabilistic guidance supports gusts to around 30 knots.

We could see some light rain showers as the warm front lifts through the area tonight. We've seen some blips on radar through the day which is all virga, but the front will offer better support but location of the frontal showers this afternoon lines up pretty well with hires models so best chance for any precip would be over the Saginaw Valley and Thumb with lesser chances to the SE. Slight chance to Chance POPs will continue to cover this portion of the event. Chances go down on Tuesday as we get solidly in the warm sector while the warm front lights up and expands across the U.P. and northern Great Lakes.

Closed and occluding upper low then lifts into the upper MS Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday which will push the moisture axis through lower MI bringing widespread rain to the area through the day. Cold front pushes through early Wednesday night bringing another line of showers through the area before we dry out some the rest of the night. Dewpoints will rise to around 60F and PWATs climb to around 1.3 inches so there will be some moisture to work with. QPF looks lean though without greater forcing as the instability gets held southeast of us and the low tracks to the north. Looking for generally around a quarter inch.

Dry slotting in between short wave troughs rotating around the broader low, will lead to a drier day Thursday. Thermal trough will be over the area with 850mb temps down to 4-6C which will knock highs back to around 60F during the day, which is still above normal. The longwave trough itself then drifts over the region on Friday with residual moisture axis bringing another round of light rain or drizzle through the day.

MARINE...

Broad low pressure over the Plains will consolidate over the western Great Lakes late Tuesday. A warm front passes northward across the region tonight with southerly wind speed increasing through early Tuesday. The inbound warm air will promote increasing low-level stability over the lakes and prevent higher winds from mixing down, but by early afternoon gusts as high as 25 to 30 kt are expected over the open waters of Lake Huron. Given limited fetch, the nearshore waters are forecast to peak around 20 kt. Similar conditions persist into Wednesday with slight backing to wind direction over southern Lake Huron which may necessitate a Small Craft Advisory along the Thumb shoreline. A cold front brings high coverage of light showers across the area late in the day and into Wednesday night with wind veering to southwest behind the front. The weakening low slowly meanders across the western Great Lakes on Thursday before a stronger cold front tracks southward across the region on Friday. This brings moderate north and northeast winds that shift northwest by Saturday.

CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for November 3rd:

Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015) Flint: 79 Degrees (Set in 2015) Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.