textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of light snow Wednesday. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Warming conditions during the late week period, with additional chances for light precipitation.

AVIATION

Lake assisted snow showers that dotted the area today are quickly diminishing. Furthermore, the cloud shield will also start to show signs of decay over the next several hours - as convective forcing ends. Though, it will take the balance of the evening to see this process carry out. Meanwhile, mid/high level clouds are already on the western horizon, as the next system darts southeast across the western Lakes region during the forecast period. The main influence from this system will be lowering and thickening clouds Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Probably a few flurries floating about, but the system will be weakening dramatically on its arrival, so not much in the way of sustainable precipitation. Otherwise, the flow will flip around to the south and gather a some fresh gusts during the morning and afternoon hours - reaching the 20-25 kt window.

For DTW... the cloud deck will hover around 5-kft this evening while it thins in coverage. This same layer will gather clouds again through the post-dawn hours on Wednesday, with the greatest opportunity to lower during the midday hours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet early this evening and Wednesday after 12z.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

DISCUSSION...

Arctic airmass entrenched locally this afternoon, solidified by a dip in 850 mb temperature around -18c within the backside of high amplitude upper troughing. Secondary period of cold air advection into daytime heating will maintain steep lapse rates at a deep convective depth through the early evening hours. Supportive environment within the background of ongoing weak lake moisture flux to maintain a scattered coverage of snow shower activity through sunset. Minor accumulation potential within any briefly heavier pockets, but of limited overall duration at any one location. Reduction in moisture depth from west to east early tonight as low level flow backs to southwesterly will then favor a period of dry conditions 03z-10z. Magnitude of cold held within the resident airmass will again support minimum wind chill of single digits to lower teens Wednesday morning.

Energetic northern Pacific upper jet stream will direct a series of lower amplitude mid level waves across the northern conus during the latter half of the week. Lead wave set to shear across the local area Wednesday. Narrow axis of meaningful moist isentropic ascent will emerge out ahead of the wave across the upper midwest tonight. Both the moisture quality and associated forcing remain weak, but sufficient to maintain a moderate potential for light snow production with a focus during the morning period, greatest with southward extent. Any accumulation remains minor. Modest warm air advection will bring temperatures back into the middle and upper 30s Wed afternoon.

Slightly more dynamic mid level impulse will traverse the region Thursday. Higher quality moisture advection under stronger low level southwest flow affords a greater response along the inbound warm frontal boundary. Pace of warming diurnally relative to the precipitation onset Thursday morning will govern both scale and duration of snow or rain/snow mix as precipitation type, before adequate warming ensures all rain the rest of the day. No accumulation currently expected. Outgoing forecast will continue to highlight a peak in temperature of mid 40s to around 50 as the thermal ridge takes brief residence.

Lower amplitude mid level northwest flow will deliver one final wave Friday. Entry level precipitation mention at this stage to account for associated frontal forcing and modest moisture quality. This system may carry greater potential north of the area and further revision likely. Otherwise, generally moderating thermal profile with continued pacific influence lifts temperatures back above average to end the work week. Warmest conditions likely heading into the first half of the weekend as upper heights continue to slowly build atop meaningful southwest flow.

MARINE...

Westerly winds dropping to 15 knots or less tonight as surface ridging extending from high pressure over the Ohio Valley arrives.

Moderate southerly winds return on Wednesday as return flow around the high kicks in, and low pressure tracks through northern Ontario Wednesday night. Gusts at least to 25 knots, with potential to briefly reach 30 knots over the open waters in the afternoon hours.

Light winds return Thursday-Friday as a weak frontal boundary washes out on Thursday. A warm front will then arrive on Friday, bringing a better chance of precipitation.

Warm airmass (7-10 C at 850 MB) in place on Saturday favors winds aob 20 knots with limited mixing/stable low levels. Next cold front on track to move through Saturday evening, with good low level cold advection and gusty northerly winds for Saturday night. None-the- less, bulk of euro ensemble members suggests winds only topping out around 25 knots. Even so, unstable low level profiles and longer fetch will result in large waves building over the southern Lake Huron basin, with waves aoa 4 feet impacting the nearshore waters.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.