textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog develops again tonight into Monday morning with locally dense fog possible.

- Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

- Next chance for precipitation comes Tuesday night and Wednesday. All rain is expected with decreasing potential for wintry mix across the north.

AVIATION

Element of haze exists this evening which will continue to offer some intervals of MVFR visibility restrictions, mainly across the Detroit airspace. Attention overnight again on fog potential, as underlying conditions again remain favorable for some degree of development during the early-mid morning hours. Forecast will continue to highlight widespread MVFR vsby restrictions, with a window for possible IFR closer to daybreak. Dense fog development carries a higher probability at FNT/MBS based on recent hi res model guidance, but confidence in occurrance remains low as high cloud thickens with time. Some lingering pockets of haze may persist into early Sunday. Wind out of the southwest Monday ahead of an inbound cold front. Brief increase in lower VFR cloud plausible with the cold frontal passage late Monday. Otherwise, simply some thickening high based cloud for the daylight period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2SM Monday morning.

* Low for cigs aob 5000 ft Monday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

DISCUSSION...

Stretch of mild and benign weekend weather continues through the evening, with current temperature readings approaching 50 degrees across much of the state. Mid-level wave crossing the state at issuance has little moisture to work with, capable of only pockets of transient mid/high cloud that will exit this evening. Nocturnal fog potential then returns overnight as clearing skies, relaxed gradient wind, and a strong persistent inversion set up highly efficient radiative cooling conditions. Upper level cloud then moves in after midnight or so ahead of the next low to impact the Great Lakes Monday. Timing of this high cloud however is likely too late to prevent radiation fog from developing. Similar to today, locally dense fog will be possible.

The aforementioned low glances across northern Lower Michigan Monday afternoon, on the nose of a 120 knot jet streak aloft. The better dynamics are along the trough axis itself and in the left exit region of the jet, both focused over northern lower Michigan. Just a narrow corridor of moisture develops at the cusp of a 40-45 knot low level jet Monday afternoon to support low PoPs across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions. Temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s again Monday ensure all rain if precipitation does occur. A more widespread effect of this system will be breezy southwest flow (gusts to 30 mph) as the low level jet works through.

Trend toward a warmer and more active pattern is expected for the mid-week period. This all begins over the next 24 hours as two west coast systems attempt to phase over California. Messy interference pattern emerges, establishing strong diffluence aloft within the mid and upper level geopotential height fields. ~140 knot upper level jet expands from the Desert Southwest into the Ohio Valley by mid- week, with low pressure attempting to surge along with it before getting anchored over the upper Midwest by the diffluent flow field. This ultimately leads to quick occlusion of the low as return flow advects moisture into the elongated deformation axis that sets up across the northern tier of CONUS. SE Michigan finds itself in the warm sector portion of this system, on the southern edge of the elongated precipitation shield. Latest guidance continues to favor the all rain scenario for most of SE Michigan, with any brief wintry mix potential holding north of M-46 where temperatures flirt with 32 degrees Tuesday evening.

Heaviest QPF potential exists invof a secondary surface circulation that slides across central Lower Mi mid-day Wednesday, clipping the Saginaw Valley and Thumb. Ensemble members reflect this with larger variance in the upper quartile of 24-hour QPF at MBS (0.5" to 1" rain), tapering to below a half inch around the Ohio border. The lower amounts to the south are influenced by the arrival of an elevated mixed layer (EML) that quickly dries out the column. Timing of this feature along with warm front progress will have major implications on the temperature forecast as well. Strong subsidence from the EML and northward progress of the warm front could mix out an otherwise strong inversion to boost temperatures into the low 60s (just shy of upper 60s records). If this inversion is unable to mix out, looking at another day with temps in the upper 40s.

MARINE...

Light wind persists through tonight within a weak pressure pattern across the Great Lakes. A weak trough settles into the area on Monday, causing S to SW wind to increase to around 10 to 15 kt before diminishing and veering to NW Monday night. This system will bring a slight chance of rain mainly to Lake Huron. High pressure on Tuesday maintains dry and benign conditions as a frontal boundary sets up just south of the Great Lakes. This boundary will serve as a focus for a stronger low pressure system that moves in from the northern Plains on Wednesday, bringing rain, snow, wintry mix, and gusty easterly winds. A Gale Watch may be needed for northern Lake Huron where ensembles currently highlight the highest potential for gusts to 35 kt from around daybreak Wednesday to early afternoon. A second low pressure system is likely to track into the Great Lakes from the Midwest on Friday with another round of widespread precip and gusty easterly wind.

HYDROLOGY...

Low pressure brings widespread rain to the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with rainfall totals projected to range between a quarter inch to locally one inch. The highest amounts are forecast across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions, closest to the track of the surface low. Rain will fall on top of a melting snowpack, with latest Snow Water Equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". The combination of rain and snowmelt may lead to rises on area rivers and ponding.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.