textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with plentiful sunshine continues through mid week.

- Near normal temperatures early week become warmer and much more humid into next weekend. - The next chance of rain develops Friday and continues through the weekend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

DISCUSSION...

Significant mid to upper level trough axis along the eastern flank of the Omega block will dig/pivot across Lake Huron and Lower Michigan today. A weak kinematic impulse or very modest jetlet feature from an atypical northeast direction will result in very deep isentropic downglide/subsidence event and drive a dewpoint front first through the Thumb by 18z and through the remainder of the forecast area by 00z this evening. Gusty northeast winds are again expected behind the front with 15 to 30 mph possible (greatest winds over the water). Weak height falls associated with the trough and a thermal low response will likely pool some modest surface based thetae ahead of the dry front. Quite possible that some high based boundary layer cloud will be observed over portions of Lower Michigan particularly west of US 23 this afternoon. Loss of daytime heating and dry air advection will choke off any cloud and cause it to dissipate after 23z.

Greater upper level jet energy to the east of the blocking pattern is expected to result in a tugging or morphing of the geopotential heights into a more Rex like configuration for Tuesday and Wednesday. There has been consistency amongst the models that greatest ridging aloft will fold and build directly over Southeast Michigan for Tuesday and Wednesday. Again the NAEFS dataset supports 99.5th percentile or climatological maximum for geopotential heights for a deep portion of the column from 1000mb up to 500mb. The increased height thickness leads to warming with highs near 80 degrees Tuesday with lower 80s possible on Wednesday.

A consensus of Global Deterministic guidance suggests that moisture collected along the upstream edge of the blocking will finally release into the Great Lakes region and Michigan by Friday and Saturday. Very low confidence exists on the most favored time period for precipitation onset at the end of the week. The main reason for the low confidence is because of likely MCS and/or latent heating dynamics. Do not have any confidence the models have the impact of the latent heating correct. Lots of uncertainty also exists on duration of precipitation chances as the latest ECMWF solutions suggests the possibility of a stalling baroclinic zone developing right through next weekend. The main narrative is much warmer and much more humid next weekend.

MARINE...

Flow has started organizing out of the northeast this morning as a weak backdoor cold front drops across the area. Generally relaxed gradient caps wind gusts around 20 knots for most of the waters, although gusts to 25 knots are expected for Inner Saginaw Bay where flow aligns with the fetch of the bay. Favorable marine conditions and dry weather expected through most of the week as high pressure builds overhead. Extended stretch of dry weather comes to an end Friday-this weekend as the high pressure pattern breaks down.