textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today with cooler temperatures compared to recent days.

- Mild temperatures return through the rest of the week highlighted by highs around 70 Wednesday and in the lower to mid 70s Thursday.

- There is a chance of showers Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

- Dry and continued mild Friday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

DISCUSSION...

Partly sunny conditions as a result of mixed mid and high clouds characterizes weather across SE Mi today. The clouds are tied to mid levels of the shallow frontal zone stalled in the Ohio valley this morning. The entire frontal zone shifts slightly northward this afternoon, directing the mid level thermal/moisture gradients farther into northern Lower Mi. Temperatures are primarily influenced by surface high pressure centered on the Ontario/Quebec border supplying a steady east boundary layer wind. Cooler air is reinforced initially this morning, however advection weakens considerably this afternoon, which allows slightly above normal high temperatures in the lower 60s south of I-69. Mid and upper 50s are more common toward the Tri Cities and northern Thumb where thicker clouds last longer and the cool air mass is deeper.

The Ohio valley front begins a stronger northward move tonight as broad low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies and central Canada. Now a surface warm front, it reaches the Ohio border near the west end of Lake Erie late tonight extending into SW Lower Mi. HREF and REFS mean surface Td rises to around 50 F toward sunrise with an assist from Lake Erie and St Clair on light SE boundary layer wind. The presence of the warm front and marine moisture augmentation presents higher probability of fog from the Ohio border up through the northern/western Detroit suburbs late tonight and Wednesday morning.

The warm front moves from the Ohio valley today, into southern Lower Mi late tonight, and then into the northern Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon while still not generating any rain over the area. Model mean RH and theta-e projections show the shallowness of the front maintaining more productive isentropic lift over the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. New in the 27/00Z models is a southern stream short wave moving up from the Rio Grande valley that could produce a stray shower on its own as the warm front exits Wednesday morning. Otherwise, the weather highlight is warm sector high temperatures rising back up to around 70 for the entire region. Highs in the mid 70s are also still in reach by Thursday afternoon, near records for the date, as the next cold front approaches from the Midwest.

Limiting factors for temperatures Thursday is clouds and a chance of showers within the moisture axis that builds in ahead of the cold front Thursday afternoon. The front itself is on schedule for passage across SE Mi Thursday evening followed by weak high pressure Friday. NBM guidance high temperatures maintain a minimal temperature drop post front with highs in the 60s Friday through the weekend. The trend to monitor is the strength of an additional southern stream short wave originating from the split flow long wave trough during Friday. Extended range models are in reasonable agreement on the track but vary in strength on a system moving up from the Rio Grande valley while drawing Gulf moisture northward for a chance of showers in the Great Lakes by Sunday.

MARINE...

Winds veer easterly today as high pressure shifts into far western Quebec. Influence of high pressure wanes overnight as low pressure lifts towards the northern Great Lakes resulting in a further shift towards southerly. Gradient strengthens by Thursday as another low/cold front work into the Great Lakes supporting gusts to 20- 25kts. While the wind response may be tempered a bit by the warm air advection across the lakes, the southwest flow may lead to another round of hazardous conditions to small craft on Saginaw Bay. Cold front eventually crosses late Thursday bringing showers with high pressure following to close out the week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.