textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Occasional light snow through the morning, with total accumulations of an inch or two. A chance for freezing drizzle exists tonight but no significant impacts are anticipated.

- A few snow squalls are possible between Noon and 5pm Friday, as northwest winds ramp up and gust 30-40 MPH. Temperatures reaching or slightly exceeding freezing Friday afternoon will plummet Friday evening and night, bottoming out in the -5 to +5 F range Saturday morning.

- Dangerous wind chills of around 15 to 20 degrees below zero are likely Saturday morning before a modest warming trend occurs over the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

AVIATION

Late evening observations indicate IFR ceiling slightly ahead of schedule in a moisture laden boundary layer over Lower Mi. The mid evening band of snow showers leaves behind a few hours of fog or light freezing drizzle which quickly transitions back to snow during the late night. Coverage increases with enough intensity for IFR visibility restriction mainly south of FNT toward sunrise through mid morning. A component of more intense/LIFR snow continues to show signs of sliding south toward the Ohio border early to mid morning. The associated wave of low pressure then carries a frontal occlusion west to east through Lower Mi followed closely by an arctic front north to south expected to bring at least scattered coverage of heavier snow showers/squalls. Bursts of IFR visibility along the front are followed by conditions quickly improving into VFR, but at the cost of northerly wind gusting in the 30-40 kt range through the afternoon and into Friday evening.

For DTW... Rounds of light snow are the weather highlights for the DTW area late tonight through mid afternoon, punctuated by the passage of an arctic front. Flight conditions trend from MVFR to IFR ceiling late tonight, IFR in the morning, and a quick improvement to VFR in the afternoon as NW wind reaches gusts in the 30-40 kt range.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight through Friday.

* High for wind exceeding crosswind threshold (320-340) Friday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 953 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

UPDATE...

An impressive mid evening flare-up of snow showers is followed by brief and patchy freezing drizzle toward and shortly after midnight. DGZ disruption is short-lived this far south and east as mid level moisture is already catching up out ahead of the upper Midwest short wave that is on schedule to bring the next round of snow into Lower Mi during the late night. Most locations around SE Mi received about a half inch of snow on top of which the patchy and brief freezing drizzle has little additional effect before flurries or light snow resumes. Snow coverage then increases out ahead of the mid level wave and will be ongoing during the morning commute but sub advisory intensity otherwise. An early look at incoming 00Z guidance continues the trend of heavier snow showers associated with the short wave grazing the Ohio border region during early to mid morning with a few pockets of heavier snow showers also developing along the frontal occlusion as it sweeps west to east through Lower Mi by noon.

PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A fairly messy forecast for the next 30 hours with as many as three shortwave maxima and associated cyclonic circulations digging southward in vicinity of Lower Michigan. Adding to the complexity are forecasted moisture profiles that are residing closer at the margins with regards to depth of saturation into the dendritic growth zone. Trajectories and therefore incoming angle/approach of the shortwaves and associate midlevel cyclonic circulations will matter in the timing and duration of saturation. Low confidence exists in the precipitation forecast and uncertainty cascades from there regarding potential impacts.

Satellite imagery shows with broad initialization support that differential cyclonic vorticity advection is occurring through all of the area between 18-00z. No steep frontal feature to key in on, rather shallowly sloped isentropic ascent between 10.0 and 15.0 kft agl through 00z. Surface temperatures creep upward into the lower 20s offering a better than normal accumulation efficiency. Snow accumulations of a dusting for most areas and up to a half inch in the Tri Cities will be possible.

Early tonight...500-400mb low pressure circulation will track near the southern basin of Lake Huron between 00-03z this evening effectively shunting deeper moisture to the east. Forecast soundings show midlevel dry air building downward to around 7.0 kft agl or to approximately the -8C isotherm. Questions arise to whether or not ice nucleation will be able to persist during the early evening and about the potential for freezing drizzle. Lower column mean saturation remains very high tonight, between 80-90%. Did introduce a chance for freezing drizzle in the forecast. Little to no confidence exists for any significant impacts if the freezing drizzle does develop.

Late tonight...The next vorticity maximum is progged to track from Minneapolis to Northeast Illinois by 12Z Friday morning but with a midlevel low pressure circulation quite removed to the northeast over Lower Michigan. This displacement of the low and the vort max is causing all sorts of uncertainty within the model guidance. Plan view progs of moisture on isentropic surfaces supports an additional period of midlevel moisture advection spilling to the northeast, tracking with the midlevel low center through the northern cwa and the Thumb between 05-12z tonight. While model signal is not overwhelmingly convincing, did increase 6 hourly forecasted snow to around a few tenths to a half inch prior to 12z. Confidence is low in any widespread impacts to the Friday morning commute. For context, NBM 5.0 24 hour snow accumulations ending at 18Z Friday has the 25th percentile at near 0.0 inches and the 75th percentile at around 1.0 inch.

Friday...Lift from true differential vorticity advection will largely remain to the south and west of Lower Michigan. Will likely see some light snow lingering from seeder feeder processes from the I 96 corridor southward 12-14z. A lull is quite possible during the midday period as some active subsidence works to dry the column between 7.0-12.0 kft agl. The big forecast issue for the late Friday period will be the arrival/passage of arctic front north to south between 17-22z. Quite normal to wonder on potential snow squall development with weak instability developing due to the shallow cold front. At this time, the signal is not overly strong for a large coverage. The reasoning is that convective depths and saturation will be a struggle to extend upward into the Dendritic Growth Zone. Additionally, northwest flow trajectories takes any moisture fluxing off of a iced Saginaw Bay or Lake Huron off of the table. With all of that stated, expecting wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph which may cause a blowing and drifting component to freshly falling snow so impacts to travel and the evening commute may arise. Given the lower coverage, the thinking is short fused products may best handle the messaging.

Saturday morning...A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for the morning hours with current forecasted winds holding 15 to 20 mph. Forecasted wind chills are ranging 15 to 20 degrees below zero which would result in dangerous conditions.

A slow warmup is anticipated to close out the weekend with a better moderation of temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures in the midweek timeframe could reach approximately 5 degrees above normal.

MARINE...

Low pressure tracking toward Hudson Bay leads to active marine conditions through early Saturday morning. Current conditions are governed by a leading upper level wave, which has generated light snow across most of Lake Huron. Organized southwest flow generally between 15 to 20 knots is also ongoing. This low begins to occlude Friday morning, sending an arctic front across the Great Lakes region mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds become northwesterly and quickly ramp up as mixing depths rapidly increase in the wake of strong cold advection and an elevated low level jet. Upgraded the existing Gale and Heavy Freezing Spray Watch to Warnings with this update. Main question going forward is whether to add in the far northern Lake Huron zone and outer Saginaw Bay, where there is a mixed signal for stability due to the existing ice cover. Local probabilistic guidance is trending upward, so an expansion of the warning may be necessary in subsequent updates. Quieter conditions arrive this weekend as high pressure fills in.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM EST Friday for LHZ361.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363-462.

Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ362-363- 421-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.