textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple days.

- Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

DISCUSSION...

Upper-level northwest confluent flow will support subsidence and a drying trend through tomorrow. Low clouds should dissipate by early evening, and it appears that surface dew pts will lower enough to help mitigate fog potential tonight. An upper-level ridge axis extending north into central Canada will fold over and arrive over the central Great Lakes Thursday evening into Thursday night.

The forecast then gets complicated Friday and into the Weekend. There is a series over upper-level disturbances that will consolidate over the Northern Plains. How much amplification takes place varies amongst the medium-range models. Deeper and faster amplification would support a deepening 500 MB trough/low developing over Iowa/southern Minnesota on Friday and diving southeast Friday night, shifting the bulk of showers into the Western Ohio Valley. Southeast Michigan has better shot at precipitation with the weak cold front dropping south from the northern Great Lakes during the second half of the weekend. Either way, NBM pops are currently running around 30-50 percent. Modest instability supports, at best, just a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Temperatures through forecast period look to remain around normal, not deviating much more than +/- 5 degrees. Friday looks to feature the warmest max temperatures, per Euro ensembles, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

MARINE...

There will be continued gusty conditions for the rest of the evening into Wednesday, which will maintain the issued Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements across Lake Huron. Winds of up to 25 kt are expected. These winds will calm down by Thursday into the end of the week as high pressure enters the region. Dry conditions are expected until we see our next chance of showers heading into this weekend as a cold front moves into the Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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