textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder and drier on Sunday, followed by an extended warming trend during the upcoming workweek.

- The next opportunity for widespread precipitation occurs Tuesday with a wintry mix possible.

- Several additional opportunities for rain the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

MVFR stratus deck exits south of the state line over the next several hours in favor of a drier airmass moving in from the north. Northeast wind direction shifts to the north-northwest through the morning to keep Lake Huron moisture flux generally east of the terminals. Lake Michigan moisture, however, will be redirected toward the Saginaw Valley and may lead to VFR cu development this afternoon. The governing feature during this TAF period is Canadian high pressure, with the center of the high drifting overhead this evening. Winds will shift to the southeast as the high departs, which will draw marine moisture inland under favorable radiative cooling conditions tonight. Patchy radiation fog is therefore possible invof the DTW corridor Monday morning, although with low confidence as the inbound airmass is very dry.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings aob 5000 feet before 12z. Low for the rest of the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

DISCUSSION...

Low amplitude trough will continue to pull off to the east today through Monday eventually giving way to a nearly zonal longwave pattern through much of the week. Strong flow will be held to the north over Canada with a weaker southern stream lingering through the Central Plains and Ohio Valley in the vicinity of a stalled front that will become very active especially later in the forecast. The pattern will lead to a notable warming trend this week with steadily building heights and highs reaching 50 by Wednesday and even 60+ on Friday.

For today we'll be on the backside of the exiting trough with northerly flow across the area bringing in feed of cool Canadian air under a thermal trough in the negative teens at 850mb. Highs will mainly be in the 20 to 30F range (N to S). Could have some lingering flurries into the morning as batch of low level moisture under the strengthening inversion works across the area. Satellite shows multiple snow bands over Lake Huron which we've been watching to get shunted southward into the eastern Thumb this morning. Exeter radar is not too impressive nor is the satellite at this time so could get brushed with light snow this morning but hires isn't supporting any stronger bands and soundings are very slim on moisture depth so won't be highlighting snow chances today at this point.

High pressure will build over the region becoming centered by this afternoon. Could see a pop of cu this afternoon but skies should generally be clearing beyond that with the dry air associated with the high. It should drift far enough east to allow the beginning of the southerly return flow and building heights by Monday pushing highs above freezing for all locations. The front will be well to the south which will direct the next shortwave across KY keeping MI dry.

The next wave will lift further north sending elevated moisture over the stalled front early Tuesday morning. There is a narrow window in the morning where temps will be below freezing when light precip could begin. Warm air advection aloft will produce temps above 0C just a few hundred feet off the ground through the first few thousand feet of the profile. This could result in light freezing drizzle. Soundings are not impressive at all right now in terms of moisture in the column during this window, really not supportive of precip in general at this time. Continued warm advective and better moisture will quickly warm the profile to result in all rain for Tuesday. Forecast will carry mention of RN/FZRA for now but if the current slower trend continues pushing the start of the rain deeper into Tuesday morning, we will see probs for FZRA continue to decrease.

Latter half of the forecast will remain wet as several wave eject out of the developing west coast trough and through the region. Min temps will be above freezing through the end of the week and weekend with aforementioned highs in the 50s and even 60s so ptype will be rain.

MARINE...

Low level cold advection continues this tomorrow morning as strong high pressure builds over the Central Great Lakes this afternoon. Subsequently, northwest winds around 20 knots will decrease under 15 knots this afternoon and aob 10 knots by evening. As the large high pressure moves off the East Coast early next week, strengthening southwest flow will bring milder air into the Great Lakes region. With the increase in low level stability, it appears winds will just top out in the 25 to 30 knot range. A weak low tracking through the northern Ohio Valley mostly rain over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie, with dry weather and light winds returning Wednesday morning, as high pressure briefly returns. Another warm low producing rain looks to be arriving on Thursday. Could be a period of stronger easterly winds (20-30 knots) over the north half of Lake Huron preceding the low.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.