textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- More seasonable temperatures and lower humidity are slated to return today through Monday.

- Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM EDT Sat Sep 5 2026

DISCUSSION...

The front lit up with convection overnight along the MI/IN border and with the help of a remnant convectively forced meso-low looks like it will continue its upscale growth as it tracks south and west of SE MI toward morning. There's still a chance Lenawee and Monroe can get clipped by northern reaches of the convective cluster as the low tried to track eastward just south of the border, but this current convection will force the more potent instability axis southwest of the area, making it harder to sustain itself into the CWA. Will keep a chance of thunderstorms mainly south of I94 through the early morning to account for this potential, whether we get clipped by the strong storms or more of elevated convection further up the frontal slope utilizing the 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Other area to watch will be closer to the I69 corridor where there is another convergence axis on the north edge of the shear with elevated cape in the area as well. CAMs have been trying to generate some scattered showers for the several cycles and current regional radar shows a few showers trying to get going so will carry a low end pop through the late morning to account for potential activity carrying on until drier air under the sinking high pressure system can end the showers for the rest of the weekend. Severe weather is not anticipated due to elevated nature of any storms that develop.

Heights then build through the day as the amplified ridge over the Plains drifts eastward over the Great Lakes. At the same time, a retrograding upper low over the east coast of Canada will force a surface high south and west over the Great Lakes bringing a less humid and cooler airmass. Dewpoints will hover in the upper 50s to low 60s with highs in the upper 70s Saturday though Monday. Next chance of precip arrives Wednesday as a strong Pacific wave flattens the longwave ridge after pushing the ridge axis across the state. The associated surface low well to the north over Ontario sends a cold front down through the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of the front Tuesday will raise max temps back into the low 80s with mid to upper 80s on Wednesday before the fropa. This front will again bring a cooler airmass with highs dropping into the mid 70s for Thursday.

MARINE...

High pressure anchored over Ontario will increase influence through this weekend. This will bring drier and more stable conditions. Prevailing wind from the northeast may bring a modest increase in wave action along portions of the Lake Huron nearshore waters, but these are expected to remain below advisory levels at this time.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.