textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s today and around 70 degrees on Sunday. A low chance of showers late tonight into Sunday, mainly north of M-59.

- Dry weather continues early next week, with potential for frost early Tuesday morning as temperatures look to drop into the mid 30s.

DISCUSSION

Good subsidence and dry mid levels (a 48 C dew pt depression at 700 MB per the 00z RAOB) are in place this morning over southeast Michigan, with expansive high pressure in control of the Great Lakes region. Transient low clouds seen traversing through southeast Michigan, as northerly flow off Lake Huron moistens the low levels. Slow return easterly flow around the departing high on Saturday will likely facilitate at least scattered Cu field, helping to hold temps in the mid 60s, as 925 MB temps progged to reach 11 C.

A shortwave entering the Northern Plains early this morning is on track to move through southeast Michigan 12-16z Sunday. Moisture is lacking, as the 850 MB moisture gradient/theta-e remains along the Ohio River. The front will have a narrowing/weakening moisture axis coming out of the Central Plains/Midwest; however, it remains supportive of low chance/scattered pops. Chances will be highest over northern half of the CWA, closer to the mid level cold pool (- 18 C at 500 MB), with several hires solutions indicating light showers in the 8-15z window with the wave of isentropic ascent. The actual cold front/trough does not move through until late in the day, where local probabilistic guidance also suggests a low chance of showers around Saginaw Bay.

Model guidance (Euro/CMC) trends to close out the weekend into early next week are for a more with amplified northern-stream trough to swing through the Great Lakes region into New England on Monday, with the parent 500 MB closed low over Quebec. This leads to 850 MB temps temps progged to reach 0 to 2 C Monday morning, setting us up for a cold/frost night Monday night with center of high pressure arriving over southeast Michigan around midnight. Warm advection high clouds with the strong warm front over the western Great Lakes looks to be the only potential hindrance to temps falling into the mid 30s.

MARINE

Transient high pressure passes over the central Great Lakes this morning, promoting light wind and waves that persist into this evening. The high departs to the east tonight, then a low pressure system will track just north of Lake Superior through Sunday. This brings an uptick in southerly flow after midnight with a chance of light showers across Lake Huron through Sunday. Wind then veers to northwest by late in the day as the cold front passes through, with increasing gustiness expected Sunday night. Gusts to around 30 kt will be likely across northern Lake Huron while gusts hold in the 20 to 25 kt range farther south. This post-frontal gustiness continues through the day Monday with model guidance indicating less than a 20% probability for gales across northern Lake Huron. Wind magnitude subsides by Tuesday morning as the next area of high pressure passes through.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

AVIATION...

The persistent flow off the lake has allowed for pockets of stratocu to persist during the overnight hours. While mostly clear skies exists across much of the state with good radiational cooling conditions, not anticipating much fog to develop tonight as there is limited support for it in the models with a dry airmass is in place. If a broader patchy fog were to develop, it would be focused along higher terrain affecting FNT/PTK. Otherwise, conditions expected to remain VFR. Winds become northeast after sunrise and eventually east to southeast this afternoon with the progression of the high pressure as VFR skies prevail.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight or Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less this morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.