textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy skies today will clear later tonight.

- Dry weather expected area-wide Monday through Thursday with a steady warming trend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling at or below 5,000 feet this afternoon and evening. Moderate late tonight and low Monday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 554 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

DISCUSSION...

Cold troughing will fade today as one final lobe of 500mb absolute vorticity pivots out of Southeast Michigan this morning and 1000- 500mb geopotential heights rise. Both the plan view perspective of moisture on isentropic surfaces and forecast soundings support stratus/stratocumulus staying in place over the forecast area for the daylight hours today with saturation at the base of the midlevel subsidence inversion. Classic representation of stratocumulus downwind of the lake aggregate here in Lower Michigan. The cloud will limit highs today in the middle 40s, some 5 degrees or so below normal.

Midlevel shortwave ridge feature is forecasted to build through the state tonight before a much larger omega block then expands in wavelength through eastern North America for much of the week. Center of mid to upper level high pressure tracks through Southeast Michigan tonight setting the stage for a long duration of southwest flow and subsequent warming. Forecast soundings support dry weather this week with a sub saturated air mass in the lowest 20.0 kft agl. High temperatures this week are expected to top out in the middle 50s by Tuesday (5-8 degrees above normal) and lower 60s by Friday and Saturday (10-15 degrees above normal). Southwest winds will remain seasonally modest throughout much of the week with gradient possibly supporting 20 to 30 mph by the end of the week.

MARINE...

Cool northwesterly flow will persist tonight which maintains the breezy conditions across Lake Huron. Gusts ranging between 20 to 30 knots will be likely through Midnight. Lingering rain showers will also be possible across the southern Lake Huron basin. High pressure will then begin spreading across the Great Lakes tomorrow morning, which will result in rapidly decreasing wind speeds in the morning hours. By the late afternoon and evening hours, light winds will have settled in as high pressure situates over the Great Lakes. Southwest flow will become established by Monday once this high pressure progresses east. This will bring some localized stronger winds through the Saginaw Bay into central Lake Huron, but overall dry weather and lighter wind speeds are expected into the midweek period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.