textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with lots of sunshine through the middle of next week.

- Cool tonight, then seasonable temperatures prevail. Warmer weather is likely late in the week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

DISCUSSION...

The upper air pattern remains dominated by an omega block over central North America. The ridge stretching from northern Manitoba to the lower Ohio Valley maintains clear skies and light winds over SE MI through the rest of the weekend. Onshore flow and an 850mb thermal trough in the wake of last night's cold front has held temperatures on the cooler side today with current readings mainly in the 60s and lowers 70s - the exception being Port Hope in the northern Thumb which remains a brisk 50F. With dew points a few degrees on either side of 40F, favorable radiating conditions will bring tonight's lows into the 40s for most of the area outside of the Metro Detroit urban heat island that should hold closer to 50. Temps rebound tomorrow as the air mass begins to modify and light wind emerges from the west. Mid 70s are attainable by the afternoon with another day of abundant late May sunshine.

The next lobe of vorticity within the longwave trough over eastern North America plunges southward across the eastern Great Lakes on Monday, sending the next back door cold front across the area. May see an uptick in boundary layer cloud with this feature, otherwise a dearth of moisture offers another mostly sunny day with highs in the 70s. Onshore flow behind the front holds lakeshore communities mainly in the 60s.

The omega block begins to break down Tuesday into Wednesday as the closed upper low over the interior northwest CONUS gets nudged by a Pacific jet and begins to migrate toward Manitoba. This dislodges the upper ridge which then crests over the Great Lakes by Wednesday, promoting highly stable and sunny conditions through midweek. As the surface high progresses into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday, deeper layer southwest flow will favor a warming trend for the late week. Medium range guidance begins to differ with handling the upper wave as it tracks across the northern Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday, with notable run-to-run inconsistencies as well as between modeling systems. The grand ensemble space does support an uptick in instability and chances for convection during this period.

MARINE...

High pressure governs marine conditions through the weekend into next week. Northeast flow subsides this evening as the high pressure center approaches, leading to light and variable winds Sunday. Another cold front drops across the region Monday morning, with light northeast winds developing in its wake. Gusts approach 25 knots Monday afternoon over Inner Saginaw Bay where flow aligns with fetch of the bay. Elsewhere gusts stay capped below 20 knots. Dry weather is expected through the forecast period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.