textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Briefly drier to start today before scattered showers return late today and persist into Friday.

- Temperatures will feel much cooler as highs return to average for early November.

- Drier weather and above normal temperatures favored for the first part of next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

DISCUSSION...

SE MI resides under the dry slot of northern Great Lakes low pressure to start the day limiting any precip to isolated pockets of drizzle. This gradually begins to change through the latter half of the morning mainly towards the Saginaw Valley/Thumb as southwesterly winds draw in moisture off Lake Michigan supporting widely scattered light showers. Chances expand over the southern portions of the CWA late this afternoon as a lobe of vorticity rounds the trough over the area providing a bit more lift to squeeze out scattered light showers which then persist into early tonight. System's secondary cold front sweeps across the region early Friday morning offering a window for better coverage before ushering in a true late fall airmass to close the week out.

850mb temps fall sub 0C behind the front as troughing sinks over the central Great Lakes capping highs slightly below average in the 40s to 50 Friday. The now closed low likewise sinks southeast over lower MI Friday generating a generally unsettled day with periodic showers and breezy northwesterly winds making it feel even cooler than the highs would suggest. Greatest shower coverage/intensity likely focused over the Thumb as the low center tracks nearby wrapping in additional lake moisture. Rain chances gradually winds down over the course of Friday night as troughing shifts towards the eastern Great Lakes.

Temperatures remain around early November averages Saturday though will feel cool given the fall thus far. Cloud cover slowly erodes through the day as surface high pressure/drier air slowly expands over the region. Ridging then expected to govern conditions through the first half of the new week promoting another drier stretch and moderation back above normal temperature-wise.

MARINE...

The occluded low pressure system continues to stretch and drift northeast into Ontario and Quebec this morning. The initial cold front has pulled through the region but the lingering stacked upper level and surface troughs will remain draped across the region today. This will keep a southwesterly gradient across the area and continued gusty winds. Deeper mixing in the wake of the cold front brings southwest wind gusts to around 25 kt across Saginaw Bay Thursday so a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening. A stronger cold front then tracks southward across the region on Friday. This brings gusty north and northeast wind that shifts northwest and weakens by Saturday. Additional light rain will accompany this frontal passage.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ421-422.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.