textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning remains in effect for all of Southeast Michigan until midnight for continued gusts of 50 to 65 mph.

- Another round of light accumulating snowfall arrives Saturday night (mainly north of M-59), changing over to rain showers Sunday morning with a brief period of sleet or light icing possible during the transition.

- Embedded strong thunderstorms possible Sunday evening/night.

- Windy and turning colder on Monday with wind gusts of 45+ mph possible.

- Wind chills down around zero Tuesday morning with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 20s.

UPDATE

The 00Z DTX sounding has indicated that a little bit of low level drying has boosted mixing depths and increased the sub cloud layer lapse rates. The result has been a secondary uptick in wind gusts this evening. This includes the northern portions of the forecast area, where gusts over the last hour have been higher than they have all day. It is also noted that convective downbursts from some of the showers have resulted in localized strong wind gusts (66 MPH at Lansing at the 8 PM ob). Mixing depth and low level wind fields will drop during the night. In light of the 00Z DTX sounding and current observations, the high wind warning has been extended to midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 647 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

AVIATION...

A compact low pressure system over Lake Huron will depart to the east tonight. There remains a strong low level wind field across srn Lower Mi within the tight pressure gradient. There are indications in model soundings and probabilistic guidance suggesting a slight uptick in wind gust potential between 00Z and 03Z before the gradient relaxes. This will then lead to a steady drop in wind speeds/gusts during the night into Saturday morning. Subtle low level dry air advection will lift cloud bases, leading to mainly VFR based clouds this evening. Low level cyclonic flow will relax during the night while continued dry air filters into the area from the west. These factors support a light night clearing trend.

For DTW... Upstream observations and most recent model soundings indicate a slight veering of the winds to more westerly this evening. Mixing profiles on model soundings indicate the potential for continued gusts around 40 knots through the remainder of the evening, with a more notable drop in wind speeds/gusts expected after 08Z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight.

* High for exceeding crosswind threshold this evening, moderate overnight, low after 08Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 323 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Strong showers along the cold front passage earlier in the day allowed winds to gust 60-70 MPH across Washtenaw/Wayne/Lenawee/Monroe counties, as temps reached into the upper 40s to lower 50s, allowing for better mixing. Tight pressure gradient and solid low level cold advection will keep strong westerly winds going into the evening hours, and no changes to ongoing high wind warning. Atlhough, the northern third of the CWA may come up short for wind gust criteria. Closer proximity to the low and enough cold air moving back in this evening to support snow showers across the Thumb region before ending. Accumulations around 1 inch seem reasonable, otherwise minor/if any accumulations elsewhere.

Shortwave ridging aloft and at the surface in place for Saturday will allow for a much quieter weather day. The center of the high (1028-1030 MB) will quickly be moving east Saturday evening, reaching southern New York around Midnight. Thus, the marginal cold airmass in place over southern Lower Michigan will not be able to hold for an extended period. Strong Pacific shortwave/jet diving southeast through the Rockies and reaching the southern Plains Sunday morning, as northern stream trough over Central Canada begins to phase. Stout warm advection pattern and 700 MB FGEN Sunday night looks to support a period of snow, with the main focus along and north of I-69. Bulk of current Euro ensembles suggest 1-4 inch type snowfall before sufficient warming and the forcing lifts north.

Further warming and moisture advection (PW values aoa 1 inch) progged to stream through the Plains and move into Lower Michigan on Sunday. Much of the CWA should be able to get into the dry warm sector. The issue for Sunday night - Monday is the low pressure system is undergoing rapid intensification, and may hover over the western Great Lakes, delaying the rain shield and possible convection with the cold front. Exact timing and positioning will be critical, as we do get some modest instability developing with strong wind fields/low level jet (50-60 knots). Still, right now the favored time looks to be late Sunday night, which minimizes the severe threat. Post frontal cold advection and steepening low level lapse rates on Monday will once again support windy conditions, but bulk of euro ensembles only indicated low end wind advisory as this point. Good late March arctic shot of cold behind this low will likely hold Maxes in the mid to upper 20s on Tuesday as 850 MB temps reside in the negative mid to upper teens. Warm advection pattern quickly kicks back in for the mid week period however.

MARINE...

A unseasonably strong low pressure system now over northern lower Michigan will continue to progress into central Michigan tonight before exiting into southern Quebec early tomorrow morning. The strongest gusts of this event has been and will continue to be south of the lie, tied to where a strong low-level jet resides in conjunction with periodic rain showers which have brought some of these stronger wind gusts to high-end gales. High-end gales with an isolated gust to storm force will remain possible across Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair through tonight until low pressure departs. Will hold off on any upgrade to a storm warning for these locations given the brevity of the storm force gales, however, will continue to monitor surface observations for any potential regarding a short- fused upgrade. A lull in gales is expected directly underneath the center of the low across central Lake Huron, before gales fill back in as cold air advection increases in the wake of the low. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all locations until tomorrow morning.

A ridge of high pressure fills in over the Great Lakes Saturday, reducing wind speeds and maintaining a brief period of lighter winds. This will be short-lived as a second anomalously strong low pressure system moves from the southern Great Lakes into Lake Huron Sunday into Monday. This initially brings a surge of warm air on Sunday which will produce stable over-lake conditions, which will act to help keep wind gusts below gales at least for the southern Great Lakes. As this low departs, arctic air fills in, which will mix out the marine layer, likely producing gust to to gales.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...High Wind Warning until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443- 462>464.

Low Water Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ444.