textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous snow showers this morning. Accumulation from a dusting to half inch in some locations.

- Drier with seasonable temperatures this afternoon as northwest winds gust 30 to 35 mph.

- Warming trend early next week, with temperatures peaking in the 40s Tuesday. A good chance of rain Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Next chance of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night as arctic air moves into the region. Much colder conditions persist through the end of the week.

AVIATION

Most impactful conditions to the TAF period occur between now and 18z as a trough axis drops north to south across the airspace. A sharp wind shift marks the trough axis, which will also be associated with a pop in wind gusts upwards of 30 knots. Cigs/vsbys will be greatly influenced by the presence of snow showers generated along/ahead of the convergence zone. Plenty of dry air observed across the airspace suggests MVFR restrictions are most likely in the snow showers with some potential for low VFR in drier spots. Minor accumulations of a half inch or less expected. Departure of the trough axis affords a potential period of scattering low cloud this afternoon, while the upstream moisture plume currently over Wisconsin/Minnesota moves into southwest Lower Michigan. Models are variable on if this moist plume can stay in tact by the time it advects over SE Michigan overnight. So while there is potential for lowering ceilings again late tonight, confidence is low.

For DTW...Light snow impacts DTW between 14z and 17z, with MVFR to IFR restrictions possible during snow showers. Strong prevailing winds approaching 30 knots possible from 310 degrees midday Sunday and through the afternoon hours, presenting crosswind concerns.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High this morning, low this afternoon, medium this evening through Monday morning.

* High for precipitation type as snow this morning.

* Medium for 310 degree crosswind threshold being met late morning through the afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

Closed mid level circulation centered over central lake Huron early this morning will wobble northeast over the next 24 hours. This process will draw the low-mid level trough extension across southeast Michigan throughout the morning. Burst of accumulating snow associated with a lead wing of meaningful height falls and dcva will fade, as attention shifts to expected improvement in moisture depth and low level lapse rates going forward this morning as convergence consolidates along the southward propagating wind shift axis. This will continue to translate into some intervals of snow showers throughout the mid-late morning period, with pockets of higher intensity rates possible given a weakly unstable profile. Residence time likely caps accumulation potential overall. Forecast will continue to highlight a general dusting to half inch of additional accumulation this morning.

Drier conditions emerge as northwest flow increases depth and magnitude early this afternoon, effectively reducing moisture quality and ending snowfall chances. Moisture depth may eventually prove shallow enough to afford some peaks of sun late in the day. Resident thermal profile remains seasonable for mid January, with highs peaking in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Period of warm air advection develops tonight as low level flow turns southwesterly with passing surface ridging. This offers simply a limited drop in nocturnal temperatures. Weak clipper system glancing across the great lakes late tonight/Monday morning lacks in both available moisture and associated forcing. Perhaps a few flurries or brief inconsequential light snow showers mainly across the thumb during this time.

Stretch of above average warmth will mark the early week period under sustained low level southwest flow. Temperatures peak this forecast period Tuesday, as readings push into the 40s most locations. Another clipper projected to arrive during the daylight period. Better moisture quality with this system overall, leading to a good chance of light rain/drizzle lasting into the evening period.

Pronounced period of cold air advection will encapsulate the region midweek, as a stronger lobe of vorticity of arctic origin breaks off the parent Hudson Bay low and digs southward. Inbound arctic front anchoring the lead edge of pronounced height falls will arrive Wednesday. High probability of snow across the Wed and Wed night periods as governing forcing and the thermal advective process facilitate a favorable environment. Arctic air then entrenched through the end of the week as high amplitude longwave troughing engulfs much of the conus. Single digit minimum wind chill currently projected Thu/Fri mornings. Additional mid level energy working through the mean trough may leave conditions unsettled Friday into next weekend, depending on system trajectory, pace and magnitude. NBM highlights both the prospects for more unsettled conditions but with general uncertainty in offering a broad chance mention for snow throughout this period. Temperatures will definitively remain below average into next weekend.

MARINE...

A surge of colder air has filled in in the wake of a cold front as low pressure continues to exit through Quebec. The advect of colder air has enhanced over lake instability where favorable northwest fetch brings likely gust to gales across central to southern Lake Huron into the evening. Gale Warnings remain in place for the aforementioned locations. Continued backing of winds to the northwest will rapidly increase wave heights within the Saginaw Bay and across the Lake Huron shoreline, where Small Craft Advisories are in place. A brief ridge of high pressure will fill in tonight and tomorrow morning, ending gale chances. Conditions remain breezy through they day tomorrow as the colder air holds. A second low pressure system enters during the midweek period, bringing renewed chances for unsettled weather and elevated winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ363-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LHZ421-441.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ442-443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.