textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool but still slightly above normal temperatures again today.

- Low chance for a isolated light showers late today towards central MI.

- Mild early to middle next week.

DISCUSSION

Center of high pressure shifts into the eastern Great Lakes/Appalachians today allowing light southeasterly winds to develop locally. While this doesn't draw in much warm advection, it does shunt the coolest air out of the region supporting more uniform upper 50-lower 60 highs across SE MI. Cloudier skies today are the result of a warm front lifting out of the Mississippi valley into Great Lakes/upper Midwest. Primary theta-e axis is directed west of Lake Michigan leading to the majority of associated showers holding well to our west. That said, lower MI holds on the periphery of elevated moisture transport this afternoon into tonight allowing isolated to scattered light showers to work across the state. These will struggle to survive into our CWA owing to the dry resident airmass with main chances (and low end at that) confined towards the central portion of the state and near the Ohio border. Any shower that does get into the area will be brief and light.

Broad Pacific Northwest trough slowly traverses the central CONUS next week eventually bringing a return to active weather locally. Timing details remain nebulous given a good spread in the speed of the longwave and if a northern stream Canadian shortwave can phase with the trough. While rain could reach the southern lower MI as early as Monday, the mid week period remains the favored window for wider spread showers with milder/humid air (by fall standards) in place. The attendant cold front eventually crosses latter half of the week bringing at least a brief return towards more average late fall temperatures though still likely several degrees above normal.

MARINE

High pressure builds in this morning which will maintain light winds through the weekend. High pressure exits into New England late tonight, reinforcing south flow into early next week. Mostly dry conditions are expected, outside of isolated spotty showers. More active conditions then enter late Monday and through the Midweek period as low pressure develops over the Plains. Southerly winds increase Tuesday and Wednesday as low pressure tracks towards the northern Great Lakes. Rain showers and a low chance for a thunderstorm also become more likely as the low approaches.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 954 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

AVIATION...

Light and variable winds persist overnight as high pressure expands into the region and eventually drifts overhead. This causes winds to organize out of the southeast by mid Saturday morning, but remain light. Otherwise, VFR expected through the TAF period although there will be a steady stream of mid cloud based between 7.0 and 10.0 kft agl.

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.