textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A return to below normal temperatures starts today and lasts through early to mid week.

- There is a chance for patchy frost in sheltered areas late tonight into Monday morning. - Frost is much more likely Monday night.

- The next chance of rain arrives late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

Yesterday's cold front has reset temperatures back below normal for today and sets the stage for cooler conditions lasting through the early week period. Afternoon highs average 10 to 15 degrees below normal each day followed by another round of near advisory frost potential at night until Tuesday.

NW wind at 10 to 20 mph maintains steady low level cold advection today requiring every bit of available May 10 sunshine for readings to climb back into the 50s. The updated forecast leans high temperatures toward the lower end of the guidance range before leveling out as high based cumulus expands coverage. These daytime heating dependent clouds decrease after sunset as surface high pressure approaches lower Mi from the Midwest. Consensus of deterministic models and HREF mean maintain gradient wind veering toward the north and holding around 5 knots. This gradient wind is not ideal for widespread frost, although min temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are reachable given the clear sky and reinforcement of colder air.

The low level thermal trough is not fully established across the Great Lake until mid day Monday judging by model 850 mb temperature forecasts that drop into the 0 to -5 C range. This occurs as surface high pressure becomes centered overhead under confluent NW flow aloft to solidify both cool temperatures and dry weather. Monday night is then set up to be the coldest in this stretch with the greatest potential for frost. Wind is light and variable to calm for most of the night under clear sky which brings late night min temperatures down to near freezing in the Thumb to mid 30s across the rest of SE Mi outside of metro Detroit.

High pressure already shifts eastward from Lower Mi by Tuesday morning as the next low pressure system moves into the Midwest from central Canada. This system quickly brings the next pattern of showers into the Great Lakes with moisture supplied by a Gulf modified continental return flow across the Plains. Near categorical shower coverage keeps temperatures in check despite increasing SW wind, and then the associated cold front quickly moves through the region Tuesday night. The frontal passage leaves temperatures to wallow below normal again by Wednesday as highs are projected only in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The latest extended model runs show Thursday and Friday becoming a transition period in the larger scale mid to upper level pattern. There is good agreement among the ensemble systems that indicate the mean flow shifting from a high amplitude long wave trough over the Great Lakes and NE States to more of a zonal configuration from coast to coast. This adds confidence to a meaningful warming trend during the late week and next weekend while lowering the predictability on precipitation systems tied to fast moving short waves within the larger scale flow.

MARINE...

Eastern edge of high pressure over the central CONUS holds across the region today into Monday maintaining light to modest NW winds (aob 20kts). Isolated to scattered rain showers will be possible this afternoon and evening across Lake Huron, but otherwise drier conditions hold through Monday. Next low is set to sweep across the Great Lakes late Tuesday bringing widespread showers and a few chances for thunderstorms mainly south of Port Austin. In advance of the system, southerly winds strengthen though with ongoing warm advection, thermal stability over the waters is expected to cap peak gusts around 30kts. Moderate NNW winds follow Wednesday as cooler air filters back in behind the low however a diminishing gradient should generally keep winds under 30kts. High pressure briefly follows to close out the work week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.