textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold this morning with wind chills ranging between -15F to -5F.

- Mostly sunny today with afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 20s with high temperatures in the 20s persisting next week.

- Chance for snow showers Monday with expected snow accumulations under an inch. Better accumulation for an inch or greater at the end of the week.

AVIATION

A surface and mid level ridge axis over Se Mi this evening will move east of the area during the overnight. The large scale subsidence and dry airmass overhead will sustain clear skies while the eastward departing surface ridge maintains a light south wind. Available model guidance suggests a very abrupt arrival of low clouds from west to east between 11Z and 13Z Monday, marking the arrival of a mid level trough axis. Weak ascent within a narrow deep layer moisture axis will warrant light snow into at least early Monday afternoon under MVFR conditions. While the mid level trough will depart to the east Monday afternoon, lingering low level moisture within a surface trough will sustain low clouds and flurries/light snow showers through at least late Monday afternoon.

For DTW...Latest model guidance suggests the onset of light snow occurring around 13Z. Limited forcing indicates just a dusting of accumulation Monday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet Monday and Monday evening.

* High for ptype as snow Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

DISCUSSION...

A ridge axis has maintained dry and stable conditions across the Great Lakes, which has brought a full day of sunshine. This has allowed temperatures to warm up into the low to mid 20s across SE MI. Flow remains quasi-barotropic with only modest/delayed cold advection, the peak which arrives after peak radiational cooling. As a result, overnight lows will still be very cold, but not as cold as this morning, with temperatures ranging between the low to upper single digits.

A shortwave and extended lobe of vorticity now exiting the plains will enter the Great Lakes tomorrow morning which will bring higher end to likely chances (50-60%) for light snow. The antecedent dry environment and weak forcing precludes any meaningful snow accumulation with totals holding under an inch, likely ranging between a dusting up to a half-inch between 12Z to 18Z as the feature progresses from west to east. Low-level flow will veer west in the wake of the shortwave which will introduce some additional lake effect snow chances through tomorrow afternoon and evening.

Both the thermodynamic environment and resulting lake-induced instability off of Lake Michigan appear less supportive than yesterday, which lowers confidence regarding any meaningful accumulation from lake effect snow showers after 18Z. However, increasing subsidence in the mid-levels in the wake of the departing wave can squeeze out flurries through the day. A better response and opportunity for some better snow showers with brief accumulation will be across the Tri-Cities and Thumb Tuesday morning, tied to progression of a secondary shortwave across northern lower and the continued veering of wind direction to the northwest. This will enhance convergence along a weak cold front, which will become more diffuse as it progresses south of I-69. Continued chance for flurries or very light snow will exist through Tuesday but moisture quality through 5kft will be poor which again limits confidence for accumulation. Daytime highs peak in the mid 20s for Tuesday.

High pressure to gradually fill back in Wednesday and Thursday which will bring dry conditions along with a persistence forecast with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits. The next likely (60- 70%) chance for snow enters late Thursday night into Friday as a clipper system drops. Pending the final track of this system, there will be a brief opportunity for milder air across the Plains to advect in ahead of this system, bringing chances to see temperatures near the freezing mark. NBM probabilistic data remains steady for 50-70% chances to see at least 1" of snow with this system. Enhancement of the trough in the wake of this system will bring the return of well below normal temperatures. Lows near zero and highs in the teens are forecasted for the start of the weekend.

MARINE...

Influence of high pressure maintains light (<15kt) winds to close out the weekend. A weak clipper arrives late day Monday but aside for scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts with accompanying winds holding at or below 20kts. Another high dropping out of the upper Midwest then follows for midweek bringing quiet marine weather.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.