textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers are possible mainly towards the evening and early overnight hours tonight across Lower Michigan.

- Temperatures recover into the 60s tomorrow with mostly dry conditions.

- Warmer Saturday with showers and thunderstorms increasingly likely during the afternoon and evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Cool Canadian troughing/cyclonic flow over the region through the afternoon has maintained the cooler temperatures today that have held in the 50s. Though, the coldest air has held well to the north towards Hudson Bay with the parent low. The troughing is carrying an embedded wave over Michigan and a boost in lapse rates that has brought a healthy diurnal cumulus field. It will also be supporting isolated shower activity as the main shortwave features tracks overhead. The better activity will be towards the evening and early part of the night and focused across Lower Michigan. Deep mixed layer today will continue to support a few brief gusts to around 25-30 mph before increasing stability this evening brings an end to these gusts.

For tonight, temps cool down towards the mid-upper 30s on average. Cooler spots across Midland and Bay County may creep closer towards the lower 30s if better duration of clearing occurs. This area would be the more favorable spot for any frost headlines. As it stands, it looks like it would only be for northern portions of the each county and there still may enough of a dewpoint spread to prevent much frost formation. Thus, will hold off on any frost headlines up against our neighbor offices.

Sustained troughing through the plains and Midwest will promote some moderation to the airmass tomorrow as lower level south to southwest flow develops. Temperatures at 850mb will climb above 0C for tomorrow afternoon and lead to a bump in daytime highs into the 60s for most of the area. A trailing weak shortwave will promote a weak surface reflection that will push a plume of better theta-e towards Lower Michigan. Will again see low end PoPs along the southern border as system moves across IN/OH while most of the area remains dry tomorrow.

A stronger shortwave diving out of central Canada wild drive a cold front through Michigan on Saturday resulting in likely rainfall with a chance of thunderstorms for the afternoon. Meager instability ahead of this front with only a few hundred j/kg of MLCAPE and MUCAPE available building in ahead of the front will preclude mention of any severe weather. It looks like temperatures will be able to reach super 60s in spots to maybe 70 degrees across the metro before colder air behind the front arrives. Post frontal northwesterly wind and a cooler/drier airmass will take over for Sunday. Long range models depict a PacNW wave driving through the north end of the southwest US ridge arriving locally Tuesday leading to the next better chance at a rain and possible thunderstorms.

MARINE...

High pressure at the surface will result in a weak pressure gradient and thus light winds through Friday. Mid levels remain active though with broad troughing over the region directing a series of weak systems aloft across the area. First one comes this evening and will result in mainly cloud cover with a few light showers possible. Stronger system will pull a cold front through on Saturday bringing increased winds up to around 25 knots and thunderstorm chances.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.