textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant and comfortably cool weekend, followed by a modest warming trend next week.

- Dry conditions through at least Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

12z DTX sounding revealed an extremely dry airmass in place, as the PW value came in a quarter of an inch, with a 700 MB dew pt depression near 50 C.

A dry pattern will remain locked in for an extended period as highly amplified upper level pattern persists. Through the weekend, Southeast Michigan will be caught in between upper level ridge over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and upper level trough over Eastern Canada/New England. pronounced surface high over Hudson Bay, with ridging extending south into the Central Great Lakes, will allow for cooler air to advect in; the Euro indicates 850 MB temperatures lowering to 6-8 C on Saturday. This sets the stage for a cool Saturday night, allowing mins to fall into the 40s. Otherwise, a slow warming trend develops next week as upper level ridge axis is forecast to move overhead, albeit in a weakened state. Euro ensemble meteograms suggest highs mainly in the lower 80s by mid-week.

MARINE

Surface pressure has fallen through the day in advance of a cold front that drops south across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Winds veer to the NE with the frontal passage, causing a brief uptick in winds/waves to Small Craft Advisory criteria overnight. Highest gusts may briefly touch gale force over Inner Saginaw Bay where northeast flow aligns with the fetch of the bay. Otherwise, gusts are capped below 30 knots. Wind and wave concerns ease by Saturday morning, although localized gusts to 25 knots may redevelop Saturday afternoon for the bay. High pressure fills in quickly behind the front, leading to an extended stretch of dry and favorable marine conditions this weekend into next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

AVIATION...

Surface high pressure in place over Lower Mi this afternoon gives way to a reinforcing cold front tonight, although with minimal weather impact. The front moves down from northern Ontario with a boost from Lake Huron in backdoor fashion into SE Mi and across the terminal corridor from about 02Z to 06Z tonight. It brings a sharp wind shift from W to NE gusting near 20 knots as the weather highlight given the preceding high pressure is dry enough for just a band of mid level clouds and near zero rain potential. Wind remains from the NE during Saturday with continued gusts near 20 knots until settling lower mid to late afternoon.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms over the next several days.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ421-422-441-442.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.