textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight chance of some freezing drizzle/mist this morning near the Ohio border.

- Potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the forecast and a chance for thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

- Warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION

Low stratus deck is lifting north this morning, leading to a gradual reduction in ceilings to IFR by mid-morning for the Detroit area terminals. Still a narrow window to see some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle out of this cloud deck across southern portions of the airspace between roughly 13z and 16z, although dry air greatly limits coverage. The stratus shield stalls invof PTK/FNT this afternoon as low level winds shift from ESE to N, drawing dry air back south across the airspace. This leads to clearing from north to south tonight, although remnant shallow moisture is likely to get trapped to support radiation fog development Wednesday morning. Crossover temperatures in the low 30s should be very achievable so long as the stratus deck can fully clear out, so opted to be more aggressive with vsby restrictions (IFR) especially as winds shift east and tap into the marine layer.

For DTW...Very low chance for patchy freezing drizzle this morning (13z to 16z). Otherwise, IFR restrictions expected as a low stratus deck lifts into the airspace along an elevated warm front. Clearing skies tonight leads to radiation fog potential Wednesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today and this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

Today kicks off the stretch of warm and potentially wet weather which will carry through the weekend. Nearly zonal flow is now in place aloft while the western periphery of a strong surface ridge just off the east coast still reaches back over the Great Lakes. This has lead to a stalled warm front setting up across Ohio with dry, cool easterly flow across lower MI overnight. Early morning temps are largely in the lower to mid 20s but dewpoints are still down in the teens due to the dry air in the ridge. Attention has been on the period of moisture advection this morning possibly leading to a few hours of freezing rain before temps warm into the 40s allowing a changeover to all rain. For the last 36 hours models have been continuing to come in drier with local probs now down to around a 10 percent chance of precip even occuring before 15Z. This is due to less impact from the northern edge of the low tracking through Ohio. Better chance of precip remains in the 15-21Z window when a mid level shortwave currently exiting the Central Plains passes over the region. Still, model soundings look quite dry, never really saturating the dry air between 4-15kft between the low level moisture and mid level wave. So there is a slight chance of some rain showers today, but leaning more toward a grungy day with possible haze and drizzle or mist due to the low level moisture, proximity to the warm front, and upstream obs showing vsby restrictions. So chances are decreasing but still not zero to see a short period of patchy freezing drizzle/mist before the warm up but don't think there will be enough, is any, to warrant much more than a mention.

Dry tonight into Wednesday as confluent flow aloft and a shortwave ridge pass over the area. Southern stream cut off low drifting across the Plains will cause some downstream amplification to the zonal flow pattern with weak ridging trying to form. The increasing height and further northward push of the warm airmass will lead to continued warming trend with temps touching low 50s for some interior locations. Dry most of the day but eventually mid level vorticity will drift into the area and the low level fgen will drift northward with the front which will bring rain chances back to southern portion of the CWA. Surface low looks to remain to the south which will lead to little to no instability, thus just warm advective rain through the day Thursday. The next stronger mid level wave will get picked up by the northern stream front and will track through northern MI Friday night into Saturday. This will much warmer air into the region with highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday and also a more unstable airmass resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Temps will remain warm heading into next week as the jet remains active to our north keeping us in the warmer airmass.

MARINE...

High pressure influence wanes early today as the gradient relaxes, causing winds to weaken. An area of troughing extends eastward through the Ohio Valley this morning offering potential for a bit of freezing drizzle across portions of Lake St. Clair and western Erie, before changing over to non-freezing showers midday. Additionally, split-flow develops later today leading to light and variable winds by this evening, and through the overnight hours. Dry weather returns Wednesday morning as high pressure briefly spills across Lower Michigan, maintaining light winds. Winds organize out of the east with increasing speeds on Thursday as a rain-producing low with an associated warm front lift in from the south, while Canadian high pressure builds over James Bay. The northern half of Lake Huron should reside within the strongest pressure gradient where sustained winds in excess of 20 knots are possible. The gust delta appears quite narrow due to increasing low-level stability and limited mixing, therefore gusts should only peak around 25 knots.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.