textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of southeast Michigan through the morning as wind chills fall to 15 to 20 degrees below zero.

- Above normal temperatures are possible Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

- Next chance of light snow occurs Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

NW wind still gusts around 30 knots during the night on the heels of the daytime arctic cold front and ahead of high pressure building down from central Canada. The inbound air mass is much colder and also impressively dry which plays into the favorable cloud trends for the rest of tonight. Model soundings also indicate cloud layer wind nudging slightly more toward the north which is a dry/downslope flow from northern Lower Mi into the terminal corridor area. A well- mixed boundary layer also ensures a continued gust component during the late night and morning with the exception of a few hours of lower wind speed around sunrise. Wind diminishes as arctic high pressure builds overhead with just a few shallow cumulus and thin cirrus during the afternoon. Wind direction begins backing toward the west and brings pockets of Lake Michigan clouds into the area Saturday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight and Saturday.

* Moderate for exceeding crosswind threshold late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

Arctic front has started dropping south through the area and should exit to the SE this evening prior to 00Z. Dewpoints still in the mid 20s ahead of the front offer up low level moisture for possible snow showers or squalls this afternoon/evening. Models advertise surface convergence strengthening between MBS and DTW so though there is nothing notable showing up on radar early on, intensity could increase into the early evening. Post frontal winds are on track so far with upstream obs showing gusts of 30-35 knots over land and up around 40 knots near the lakeshore with the onshore flow. These strong gusts may lead to blowing and drifting of any snow that falls along the front, or snow that fell earlier this morning.

These strong winds will also lead to aggressive cold air advection with 850mb temps falling from -7C this morning down to -20C early tonight. Skies will mostly clear with the favorable northerly flow keeping most of the Lake Superior to Lake MI moisture plume to our west. This will lead to rapid cooling with lows dropping to around 0F with negative values likely in the Thumb. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for the whole CWA tonight into Saturday morning for wind chills dropping into the -10 to -20F range.

Temps remain cool on Saturday with continued northerly flow and high Canadian high pressure passing over the region. Only slight moderation to the thermal profile with 850mb temps still in the negative upper teens C so high temperatures likely remain in the teens Saturday. Upper trough then begins to inch eastward through the latter half of the weekend and into next week leading to a slow warming trend into the middle of the week. High will rise to near 30 on Monday before reaching the mid 30s Tuesday and Wednesday. Next change of precipitation will arrive Saturday night into Sunday as a shortwave rounding the ridge shears over the region with an elevated front looking to activate with isentropic ascent along the warm advection arm. Most of the lift and moisture will be elevated but most models and probabilistic guidance supports a chance of snow showers during this time. There is currently a large spread in location of the best forcing from northern Ohio up through about the I69 corridor so look for refinements in placement as we get more into the range of the hires models.

MARINE...

Northwest flow encompasses the central Great Lakes region, with the arctic front now located across Lake Erie. Strong cold advection post-front has led to a quick pop in wind gusts to 45 knots in some spots which will be relatively short-lived as subsidence gradually lowers mixing depths this evening. The dry arctic airmass confines main snow shower activity to the ice-free waters of Lake Huron, with any of these snow showers potentially becoming snow squalls at times. The strongest wind pop is just now reaching Saginaw Bay, and will settle south through the evening before gusts settle to 35-40 knots tonight. Gale Warnings and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect, with the latest update adjusting the end time of the warnings to account for a slower ramp down in gusts. Should see winds drop below headline thresholds around daybreak Saturday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Quieter marine conditions then prevail for the weekend into early next week with a chance for snow on Sunday as a clipper glances across lower Michigan.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for LHZ362-363-421-441>443- 462>464.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ362-363- 462.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.