textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- It will become very mild today into Friday; temps in the 50s and possibly low 60s.

- Rain showers move through tonight into Friday morning, with a rumble of thunder not out of the question.

- South-southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph Friday morning ahead of cold front.

- A storm system will bring the potential for additional gusty winds and light accumulating snow showers over weekend.

AVIATION

Wind from the S-SE picked up a Lake Erie component of moisture for an added boost to LIFR fog/stratus, especially from PTK southward across the DTW corridor. Coverage is proving to be less durable farther north where FNT has fluctuated widely leading up to sunrise while the southern fringe also approaches MBS. Further improvement of ceiling and visibility now depend on a continued increase in south wind during the morning as the pressure gradient steepens between larger scale pressure systems. VFR then returns for the afternoon while the next low pressure system approaches from the mid MS valley. This system tracks well west of SE Mi while reinforcing mild air and spreading rain showers across the area tonight. There is a high degree of stability in the low levels, however southerly wind still develops gradient wind gusts around 20 knots during the night. The combination of warm air and rain showers carries flight levels back down to MVFR toward midnight with IFR possible again toward sunrise Friday.

For DTW... The edge of LIFR ceiling and visibility is very nearby to the east of the terminal while still linked to influence from Lake Erie. Mid to late morning improvement leads to VFR this afternoon and into this evening until rain brings a return to MVFR toward midnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning and after 00Z tonight.

* High for ceiling at or below 200 feet and/or visibility 1/2 SM late early this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

DISCUSSION...

As the low clouds cleared out yesterday evening from south to north, enough lingering surface moisture and light winds around to support fog, which has become locally dense. Winds increasing toward sunrise should help dissipate the fog by mid morning. Otherwise, maxes could be impacted a bit and fall short of 50 degrees as mid/high clouds thicken up during the day,

Upper level trough axis along the west coast of North America, with lead shortwave tracking through Texas and making the turn off to the northeast. 500 MB height fall center will move through Wisconsin tonight. Very strong southwest low level jet (70 knots) will transport a very moist and warm airmass into the Great Lakes region, as 850 MB dew pts of 9 C enter the State tonight. With the better forcing/height falls west of the CWA, heaviest rain will miss the area. However, modest instability (showalter index approaching zero and mid level lapse rates of 6+ C/km) does work into the area, so a rumble of thunder and accompanied brief heavy downpour will be possible. Cold ground and stable near surface profile should help limit wind gusts, but local probabilistic guidance suggests gusts around 40 mph possible tonight into Friday morning, with the growing boundary layer on Friday looking to see the better potential ahead of the cold front. If the front is slower on Friday, wind gusts of 45+ mph become likely, as at least half the euro ensemble members indicate this. Right now, looks like the front will track through by early Friday afternoon. None-the-less, with 925 MB temps of 11-12 C, the airmass potential for maxes is lower 60s. However, with the rain showers around in the morning, a more conservative forecast of mid 50s to around 60 degrees seems warranted, which still should set the daily record values. Not a lot of cold air behind this frontal passage, as 850 MB temps progged to bottom out around zero Friday evening.

Strong northern stream upper level wave/500 MB low to track into the northern Plains late Friday and into the Central Great Lakes by Saturday evening. Strong model consensus with the southern low and moisture over the Western Gulf Coast States staying out ahead and reaching the Mid Atlantic Coast on Saturday. Thus, phasing and rapidly deepening low over the Central-Eastern Great Lakes does not look to be in store, with surface pressure likely staying above 1000 MB through Saturday night. None-the-less, the northern stream height fall center is deep and does track through Lower Michigan. With some lake enhancement, snow shower activity late Saturday into Sunday will likely bring a couple inches of snow. The best chance for possibly 3-4 inches looks to be over the Tri-Cities region, closer/underneath the mid level circulation. Deeper mixing on Sunday will lead to a breezy day, with west-northwest gusts around 35 mph expected per euro ensemble mean meteograms.

MARINE...

A strong low pressure system will track from the Central Plains this morning into northern lower Michigan by early tomorrow morning. The pressure gradient will quickly strengthen with the arrival of the low, which will result in sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 knots late tonight into the morning hours. Despite the very stable low level profiles, the strength of the pressure gradient and low level jet will likely produce gusts to gales over much of the open waters of Lake Huron, given the favorable southeast to south fetch. Have issued a gale warning for tonight into Friday.

Small Craft Advisories remain in place across the Lake Huron shoreline and ice free portions of the outer Saginaw Bay as idealized southeast flow will rapidly increase wave heights. With gusts up to 30 knots expected over Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie, small craft advisories have also be issued for those locations.

Widespread rain will accompany the low pressure system tonight, with winds then veering west-northwest as a cold front moves through on Friday. High pressure rapidly builds in behind the front, diminishing stronger winds leading into Saturday.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread showers will move through southeast Michigan Thursday night into Friday morning. Basin average total rainfall of a quarter of inch to half an inch is expected, which should not produce flooding as the snow pack has dissipated.

CLIMATE...

The record high temps for Friday, January 9th.

Detroit: 55 Degrees (Set in 1949) Flint: 54 Degrees (Set in 1939) Saginaw: 54 Degrees (Set in 1939)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM EST Friday for LHZ362- 363-462-463.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Friday for LEZ444.