textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A few light showers possible late tonight into early Saturday morning.

- Much warmer Saturday with temperatures in the upper 70s.

- Next significant chance of rain arrives Sunday, focused over the southeasternmost areas, tied to the remnants of Isaias.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

DISCUSSION...

Mid clouds have been expanding across the area today as a mid level wave rides east along a warm front across IN/OH later this afternoon. The wave was boosted this afternoon by a low level jet lifting north into the area which will continue northward while the wave pulls away to the east. Over the last few days, models have continually highlighted the potential for weak showers to accompany the warm front as it lifts through southern MI after 00Z tonight. Though there will be separation between two of the main features, there is still a tight theta e gradient that will lift through the area tonight on the front that could touch off some showers. PWATs have been increasing over the last few runs as well with a narrow window of close to 1 inch lifting through. A slight chance of showers was added in the last forecast cycle which will be only slightly adjusted this go around, mainly broadening it due to discrepancies in timing of the likely narrow band of showers. Even within 12 hours the CAMs differ by 3-4 hours with timing of the feature. Any precip will lift north likely exiting the forecast area by 12Z Saturday.

Warmer temps still likely on Saturday as southerly flow ramps up behind the warm front positioned over northern MI. Thermal ridge folding into the area has settled around 17C at 850mb by the time it gets here with the warmest part of the airmass lifting north and west of the area through MN. Thus chances of hitting 80F for highs have gone down in favor of mid to upper 70s.

Extensive dry spell looks to come to an end Sunday as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias lifts northward toward the Ohio Valley. Recent trends keep the low center more to the south over KY before whisking it off to the east but the expansive precip shield will still work up through most or all of SE MI Saturday night into Sunday. PWATs continue to climb with the system and we're now up to around 1.5 inches across most of the area but the western part of lower MI will be fighting drier air and ridging building into the area so will probably see a good cutoff of rain across western lower. Currently QPF totals are around a quarter to half inch across the area.

Periodic rain chances continue through the end of the upcoming week as a deep upper level trough sets up over the western conus ejecting several waves which look to phase with northern stream troughs working across southern Canada. First chances look to be with a cold front Monday night into Tuesday with another front Friday.

MARINE...

High pressure located across the eastern Great Lakes will travel into New England tomorrow while remnants from Hurricane Isaias works from the Gulf states into the Ohio Valley. This will work to produce a moderate strength pressure gradient over the Great Lakes and will bring breezy southeast flow through tomorrow. Gusts ranging between 25 to 30 knots will be possible through south and central Lake Huron, sporadically peaking around 34 knots over north-central Lake Huron where the fetch is more favorable. However, confidence in achieving gust to gales will be very low given the high stability over the lakes which will greatly hamper or nullify any mixing of stronger winds aloft. Breezy conditions will subside through Sunday as a ridge of high pressure briefly fills in. Remnant moisture from the tropical system will also bring the chance for rain showers Sunday. Otherwise, on and off rain showers and some low-end storm chances will be possible through next week as a couple of systems moves through.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.