textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snowfall and flurries at times this evening and into Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures persist through Thursday with the coldest wind chills dropping a few degrees below zero Wednesday morning; similarly cold Thursday morning.

- Next chance for accumulating snowfall arrives Thursday night through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Flanking axis of CVA ahead of a cold front has exited this afternoon which has lightened snowfall rates. KDTX reflectivity returns are also a bit weaker, compared to late morning and midday snowfall rates. These increasingly light and scattered snow showers should linger into the evening hours as the shallow boundary layer remains sufficiently moist and weakly forced ahead of the passage of a cold front. Areas of mesoscale convergence offer localized enhancements to snow production this evening, but new accumulations should remain AOB a quarter inch. An elevated warm front attempts to lift north of the Michigan/Ohio state line tonight, while surface winds remain in west flow. Additional light snow/flurry potential exists. A canopy of cloud should improve nocturnal insulation, and keep overnight lows between 10F and 15F.

Snow chances drop throughout the day Tuesday as high pressure builds southeastward into the Upper Midwest. Low-level anticyclonic flow limits the productivity of northwest flow across Lake Michigan, in spite of ice coverage only hovering around 40 percent. Forecast soundings and moisture progs indicate the influx of drier air from north to south, generally between 12Z and 21Z Tuesday, with an eroding omega signal through the drying shallow stratocumulus layer. This does leave the southern half of the forecast area more susceptible to pockets of light snow showers, but only through the midday hours. Tweaked PoPs to include mentions of isolated light snow showers. Some clearing expected Tuesday night, enough to get lows to drop back into single digit territory.

850 mb temperatures persist in the minus double-digit (Celsius) range on Wednesday which ensures cold conditions continue. Morning wind chills could minimize as low as -5F. The upstream ridge axis starts to shear out as it crosses over the Great Lakes, and the surface circulation becomes more diffuse, lending a weakening WNW gradient wind trend. Highest confidence of the week in a snowless forecast Wednesday based on the lack of ascent and lowest PWATs. The arctic airmass dislodges Thursday with lower column flow backing WSW ahead of the next system. Lead isentropic ascent develops by Thursday evening as light snowfall spreads southeastward. Meanwhile, a seasonably strong jet axis will move overhead and become quasi- stationary through the weekend with various jet enhancements and geopotential height perturbations. Several rounds of snow are possible Thursday night through Friday with accumulations. The most intense low-level jet offers the gustiest winds on Friday, possibly in excess of 35 mph.

MARINE

Weak clipper begins to depart the region this evening tapering off lingering light snow showers save for a few lake effect snow showers over mainly eastern Lake Huron. Northwesterly winds develop as this occurs tonight with strongest winds occuring over the northern and central portions of Lake Huron given the fetch. Over these waters, winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the 20-25kt range are possible over the north-central waters; which also would support some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. High pressure dropping out of Canada then expands over the region through midweek promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. Another clipper swinging out of northern Ontario is expected to draw an arctic cold front over the central Great Lakes late Friday-Saturday. Strong trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales and heavy freezing spray for Lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026

AVIATION...

Cyclonic vorticity and moisture advection has resulted in weak lift and light snow across Southeast Michigan today. Radar and surface observation trends support another hour or two of IFR visibility restrictions in light snow before prevailing precipitation ends. Low level moisture and saturation is progged to settle in after precipitation ends with widespread surface observations upstream supporting IFR ceilings. Preference was to err more optimistic and included a TEMPO or prevailing ceiling this afternoon at low MVFR. MVFR or VFR stratus is anticipated tonight.

For DTW...Light snow is expected to end around 19z with some visibility restrictions in BR possible this afternoon. Did include low MVFR ceilings in TEMPO this afternoon. Very low confidence in snow flurries Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet tonight.

* High for ptype as snow.

* Low in visibility restrictions of 1/2SM SN or ceilings heights of 200 ft.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.