textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect along/south of I-69 today for southwesterly gusts to 45 mph.

- Seasonably cooler this weekend with light snow likely Saturday night and on Sunday. An inch to localized 2 inches is most likely.

- Cold Monday into Monday night with wind chill in the single digits at times.

- Additional opportunities for snowfall late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION

Low pressure system stalled over northern lower will keep elevated westerly flow across southern MI through the overnight. Gusts have decreased to around 25 knots and should continue to slightly weaken through the rest of the night. Cold airmass will keep a solid MVFR cloud deck through Saturday. MBS is being impacted by a weak band of snow pivoting around the low to the north. Should be light with little to no accumulation over the next few hours.FLurries could persist up there through the rest of the night but we'll see where the band sets up. Lighter westerly winds today with stratus holding through the day.

For DTW...Light snow will work back into the region tonight, mainly after midnight. Will introduce a low end snow mention toward the end of the forecast. Otherwise MVFR CIGs through the forecast.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 5000 feet tonight through Saturday night.

* High for ptype of snow Saturday night.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

DISCUSSION...

Center of low pressure has migrated over northern Lower MI with KDTX VAD wind profile starting to sample 50 kt within its LLJ the past hour. Abundant stratus is limiting mixing depths which has dampened the surface wind response compared to earlier today, but will hold on to the Wind Advisory as the LLJ peaks overhead over the next few hours. Wind magnitude will then ease through the evening as mixing depths shrink and the LLJ departs east. The gradient will remain in place through tonight as the low stalls over Lake Huron, supportive of gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range much of the night. Moisture will continue to wrap around the occluded system to produce pockets of light rain, drizzle, and light snow through this evening. Southern areas should trend dry overnight, but the Thumb and Tri-Cities have a 20 to 30% chance for additional light snow through Saturday morning. Any minor accumulations should be limited to grassy surfaces.

Complex upper air pattern tonight into Saturday with an amplified ridge over Ontario squeezed between troughing over New England and the northern Plains. As today's upper low shears out and departs into New England, the Great Lakes region is left within a relative col which allows inverted sfc-700mb troughing to be orphaned off overhead through the weekend. Cool, cyclonic flow persists across the state with widespread stratus remaining pervasive. Temperatures Saturday will be relatively mild with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s, then Sunday will be a return to typical mid February with lower to mid 30s.

A series of shortwaves will dig from the northern Plains into the Tennessee Valley this weekend, dislodging the resident troughing while inducing localized height falls and cold advection across the state late Saturday night and Sunday. A lobe of the sfc trough is modeled to sink southward Sunday morning and bring a round of light snowfall to much of SE MI. Temperatures in the mid 20s to around 30 will allow for minor accumulations of around an inch before noon. Coverage of snow will decrease during the afternoon but additional lobes of vorticity aloft with offer the potential for more localized intervals of snow showers continuing into Sunday evening. Fresh cold advection behind the morning trough will result in steep low-level lapse rates and weak instability intersecting the DGZ, with models also indicating pockets of 900-800mb omega as well. So some locally heavier snow showers will be possible at times Sunday afternoon and evening, with quick localized accumulations of an additional inch where any occur.

Temperatures trend downward for Monday and Monday night within continued cool cyclonic flow, but chances for snow look slim as height rises commence. The middle of next week looks to be an active period with several windows for additional precip. The first occurs late Tuesday into Tuesday night when a quick hitting warm advection / isentropic ascent snow event is noted in the bulk of guidance. Ensemble members support a general 1 to 3 inch type of event with details to be gleaned in further forecast cycles. Another low pressure system is shown in the vicinity late Wednesday into Thursday with much higher model spread instilling low confidence on specifics, but additional precip and gusty winds will be possible.

MARINE...

Ongoing Gale Warnings for Lake St Clair and western Lake Erie remain unchanged as southwest winds gust to 35-40 knots through the evening. An occluded front remains stationary near Sturgeon Point, steering the surface low into north-central Lake Huron by this evening. Arrival of the low relaxes the pressure gradient enough to to reduce wind speeds and gusts below headline thresholds. Poleward of the front, flow is ENE but will become more northerly with the arrival of the low which should also briefly reduce precipitation chances tonight. By Saturday morning, northwest flow inland and northeast flow over water sets up a convergence axis that utilizes the Lake Superior moisture connection to produce band of lake effect snow that stretches into north-central Lake Huron. As the low weakens and eventually departs into Ontario Sunday, this axis combines with an upper level disturbance to expand snow shower coverage south into the rest of the waterways. Lack of gust potential limits concerns for snow squalls, although intense bursts of snow within the band will still be possible. Winds increase again on Monday as the gradient tightens with a brief shift to high pressure early week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Low Water Advisory until 1 AM EST early this morning for LEZ444.