textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Big warmup ahead: High temperatures expected to climb into the upper 70s to possibly lower 80s this weekend. Even warmer early next week.

- Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms this weekend through early next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

DISCUSSION...

The forecast through the early part of next week will be characterized by a significant pattern shift, marked by a robust spring warmup and an increasingly active convective regime as the Great Lakes region becomes positioned on the periphery of an amplifying subtropical ridge. For the short term, clouds are still holding strong currently, as 00z DTX sounding revealed rather deep cloud layer/saturation depths. Still, with clear skies observed over far western lower Michigan and heights quickly rebounding this morning, conditions will allow for a quick west-to-east clearing trend. Low-level winds remain northwest today, but subsidence will allow for moderation of the airmass. With 850 mb temps progged to reach 3.5 to 4 C, maxes should lift into the low to mid-60s across most locations. A strong upper-level wave over the northern Rockies will move into Central Canada tonight, but a significant shortwave/attached upper-level PV filament is expected to track through Lake Superior Friday morning. Lack of forcing over southeast Michigan and remnant dry air in place is expected to keep us dry tonight and Friday as warm air then surges into the state. Although, I would not totally rule out a few sprinkles Friday morning (especially in the Tri-Cities region), as seen in RRFS and ARW.

The trend for Saturday is now for an MCV to come out of the Midwest Friday night. PoPs have been ramped up, which will of course impact the maxes. I am not confident in reaching 80+ degrees anymore, despite the NBM advertising lower 80s (which is possible if convection fails to materialize and convective debris is limited) based on 850 mb temps of 14+ C. If timing of the MCV corresponds with peak heating, MLCAPE reaching AOA 1000 J/kg would pose a marginal severe threat with the stronger wind fields noted.

The end of the weekend into early next week features further amplification of the upper-level pattern. A strong storm system will develop over the Plains as a trough digs over the Rockies and a ridge builds along the East Coast. Strengthening deep southwest flow on Monday potentially leads to our first 90-degree day, but the warm front lifting through Sunday night will have to clear the CWA cleanly and we will have to remain capped during the day. The main moisture surge and warm front lifting through late Sunday and Sunday night looks to become active with sufficient forcing and instability to support showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE...

Low pressure gradually drifts into the Atlantic Coast today in favor of high pressure moving in from the west. Northwest flow subsides as the local gradient relaxes, allowing the remaining Small Craft Advisories to expire this afternoon. High pressure then drifts overhead this evening through Friday, causing winds to back from northwest to southerly ahead of the next low pressure center to move across Ontario this weekend. Dry conditions expected during this period. Surface troughing that extends south from this low then reaches the Great Lakes Saturday, bringing the next opportunity for showers and thunderstorms as well as breezy southerly flow. Unsettled conditions carry into early next week as additional disturbances impact the Great Lakes region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.