textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer tomorrow and Friday with highs rising into the to mid-upper 80s.

- Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms expected Friday evening through Saturday.

- Dry weather returns early next week with warming temperatures approaching 90 degrees by mid week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

DISCUSSION...

A dry airmass remains in place this afternoon, as indicated by surface dew pts mainly in the upper 40s to to mid-50s. Scattered- broken flat cu field over the southern half of the CWA should quickly fade early this evening. Sprawling high pressure over the western Great Lakes will slowly slide through the Central Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow as an upper-level ridge axis moves overhead Thursday night. Modest return flow late in the day will allow temperatures and dew points to be 2-5 degrees higher compared than today.

There is a bit more clarity for Friday and the weekend, as model trends and ensemble members have converged toward deeper and faster amplification. Thus, a deepening 500 MB trough/low developing over Iowa on Friday dives southeast Friday night. Even so, there is a separate 850-700 MB Theta-E ridge in place over lower Michigan on Friday with enough mid/upper level troughing/height falls arriving Friday evening/night to support showers. NBM PoPs have subsequently increased into the likely category for Friday night and Saturday. Total QPF remains uncertain, as the amount of weak instability still needs to be sorted out. Euro ensembles suggest the probability of 0.5 inch or more in a 24 hour period is still under 50 percent. The second half of the weekend looks drier now, based on the northern stream trough and next round of height falls mainly tracking through Lake Huron, with main push of cold advection directed into the eastern Great Lakes. None-the-less, with a weak frontal boundary/inverted surface trough lingering through the day over southeast Michigan, slight chance PoPs for showers/thunderstorms seems warranted, though instability looks to be low with weak mid level lapse rates indicated.

A pronounced upper-level ridge returns for early next week, supporting dry weather and warming temperatures that could potentially reach 90 degrees by mid week, depending on timing of a cold front as the upper-level flow over the northern CONUS trends pseudo-zonal.

MARINE...

North flow weakens through into this evening as high pressure drops south across the area. Will allow small craft headlines to expire later this evening, as winds and waves will gradually relax as we head towards dusk. Winds tomorrow become easterly during the day tomorrow and then southerly by tomorrow night. Overall, winds are expected to remain below 15 knots tomorrow and through the end of the week. There remains a chance for scattered showers and storms late Friday and Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ049-055- 063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.