textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cool conditions will prevail Saturday with plenty of sunshine.

- A significant warming trend begins Sunday and persists through much of the work week. This pattern will bring breezy conditions and periodic chances of showers and strong thundestorms.

DISCUSSION

A cold front transitioned south of the border around midday, displacing the bulk of the antecedent precipitation. An upper-level shortwave trough is currently tracking through the Central Great Lakes; weak inverted surface troughing and modest CAPE, coupled with steepening low-level lapse rates under cold air advection, may be sufficient to initiate isolated light showers/sprinkles over northern areas through the early evening. Thereafter, a strong surface high-pressure center arrives by Saturday morning. Strong subsidence and drying are indicated, which should ensure clearing skies late tonight. While a weak signal for shallow ground fog exists, confidence is too low to include in the zones.

Following a seasonably cool Saturday, warm spring temperatures in the 70s look to persist for an extended period, as 850 mb temperatures rise into the 10-13C range. Prolonged southwesterly flow over the central/southern Plains will advect a warm, moist airmass into the region. Dew points are expected to reach the lower 60s by early next week as the primary warm front lifts north on Sunday. If the warm front cleanly clears southeast Michigan Sunday afternoon, wind gusts near 40 mph will be possible in the warm sector, aided by deepening mixing layers tapping into the 45+ kt low- level jet.

Sufficient instability will exist to support unsettled weather, with periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the forecast period. Convective timing will influence maximum temperatures and potential severe weather risk, as enhanced mid- level flow (0-6 km bulk shear of 35-60 kt) remains established over the Great Lakes. A series of low-pressure systems tracking through the western Great Lakes will provide the focus for lift; however, exact timing and placement remain subject to revision due to high variability within the ECMWF (Euro) ensemble guidance.

A high-amplitude upper-level trough originating in the Gulf of Alaska is projected to arrive toward the end of the work week, ushering in a cooler, more stable airmass by the weekend.

MARINE

Weaker north-northwesterly gradient flow has become established over the central Great Lakes this afternoon as a deep-layer trough axis moves across the northern waterways. Associated downstream surface pressure falls have already cleared the eastern Great Lakes, which has allowed high pressure to build into the region from the west. This ensures more tranquil conditions tonight and Saturday as the ridge centers over Lower Michigan. The stable system migrates east by Saturday evening, and return flow eventually flips weak winds south-southeasterly. Active weather returns Sunday morning, with intervals through Wednesday, due to several passing disturbances. Potential still exists for gusts to gales, mainly late Sunday into Monday. Main concern will be for portions of southern Lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

AVIATION...

A frontal boundary has settled just south of Michigan with an IFR cloud deck and northerly winds to start the TAF period across southeast Michigan. Should experience a gradually ceiling improvement to MVFR into the evening and overnight. A low pressure system to the north will try and generate some shower activity across MBS and possibly FNT. Coverage looks isolated enough to leave out of TAFs for now, but may need amendment if confidence increases for the light shower activity. Drier air scatters out the low clouds from north to south towards sunrise tomorrow bringing VFR skies by mid morning tomorrow. Winds will also shift more northeasterly tonight into tomorrow morning.

For DTW...IFR to MVFR ceilings this afternoon through this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft this afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.