textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool tonight with overnight lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

- A pleasant weekend with highs in the low to mid 60s on Saturday and around 70 degrees on Sunday. A low chance of showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Dry weather continues early next week, with some frost potential early Tuesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for ceiling 5000 ft or less Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

Cool post-frontal northwest flow has rapidly steepened lapse rates through 850mb which with saturated surface conditions have resulted in healthy strato-cu development early this afternoon that has extended in through the Tri-Cities and Thumb. Loss of diurnal heating and anemic moisture in the mid-levels will continue to erode cloud cover through the evening. This will lead to clear skies overnight and will allow temperatures to quickly drop into the upper 30s for portions of the northern Tri- Cities and interior of the Thumb, and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Additionally, north to north-east flow brings a low chance for stratus development by the mid-morning hours given this lake influence, most favorable across the Thumb.

Surface high pressure will be centered over southern Michigan tomorrow morning and will depart into the continental northeast by tomorrow evening. This will bring dry weather with some afternoon cu development along with slightly below normal temperatures to near normal temperatures with highs in the low to mid 60s. Generally benign conditions exist for the remainder of the forecast window. There will be some lower-end rain chances centered Sunday morning as a mid-level wave travels from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. This will bring the chance for brief and light rain showers most favorable north of I-94. High pressure to then fill in behind the wave on Monday and Tuesday, bringing dry conditions under mostly sunny skies. Outside of a very weak signal for a second chance for brief light rain showers late Wednesday into early Thursday morning with the arrival of a second glancing mid-level wave, very limited forcing provides very little chances for any meaningful precipitation chances at least through the middle of next week.

MARINE...

Gusty northwest winds between 15 and 25 kt continue into this evening, then diminish quickly overnight as high pressure builds in. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for parts of the southern Lake Huron nearshore waters into tonight as the heightened wave field gradually dissipates. Light winds then carry through Saturday and Saturday night as the high passes over Lake Huron. The next low pressure system is slated to track across northern Ontario on Sunday. This brings increasing southerly wind during the morning which then veers to northwest by late in the day in the wake of the cold front. Some light showers may accompany the front, but the main marine concern will be increasing gustiness to the post-frontal flow, with potential for gusts to or above 30 kt. Current model guidance advertises less than a 20% probability for gales across northern Lake Huron Sunday night. Gusty northwest flow persists through Monday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LHZ441-442.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.