textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers, perhaps an isolated thunderstorm, linger near Lake Erie this morning. Locally heavy rainfall remains a hazard with any of this activity.

- Otherwise, expanding high pressure brings drier conditions to SE MI through Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s.

- Above normal temperatures in the upper 80s return by midweek.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet through Monday morning. Low Monday afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms in the vicinity this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

Mid level trough axis is in the process of departing for the eastern Ohio Valley this morning. Before this fully occurs, scattered showers will linger across the southeasternmost portions of the area, focused towards the Lake Erie shore. Given these areas still under the fringe of prior humid airmass, weak elevated instability offers some isolated thunder potential. Locally heavy rainfall remains a hazard with any of these showers as the prior day environment (PW just 2", warm cloud layers >10kft, and slow storm motion) is still in play. High res model guidance favors the most frequent activity towards northern OH, aided by the eastward shift in the shortwave, so held off on a Flood Watch for Monroe county. For the rest of SE MI, height rises tied to mid-upper ridging begin to fold in from northwestern Great Lakes as surface high pressure maintains light northeast winds. Drier accompanying airmass erodes the persistent humidity as PWATs fall from ~1.8" this morning to around 1" by evening and eventually sub 1" by Tuesday AM. Cooler flow is partially offset by dry advection promoting north to south clearing allowing temperatures to reach lower 80s for most areas outside the eastern Thumb and far southern MI. Little change for Tuesday as surface high pressure drifts over lower MI, though sunny skies will allow highs a few degrees warmer in the mid 80s.

Above normal temperatures look to return midweek as upper ridging over the Plains is flattened into the Great Lakes by troughing ejecting out of the northern Rockies. While the core of the hottest air (850mb 20C) remains over the central Plains, 850mb temps locally make a run into the upper teens C Wednesday-Thursday supporting highs back in the upper 80s. Aforementioned trough eventually works into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday bringing the area's next chances at seeing showers/storms.

MARINE...

High pressure builds in through today and tomorrow which will greatly mitigate rain chances while supporting lighter winds. The exception will be through the Saginaw Bay, as the favorable northeast flow brings localized stronger winds. Winds are expected to peak around 19 to 22 knots this afternoon which will remain just shy of Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Wind direction veers to the southwest Wednesday and Thursday as high pressure washes out across the Appalachia region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.