textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential exists for a brief period of light wintry mix north of the M 46 corridor late tonight.

- Temperatures are forecasted to reach near 40 on Tuesday with daytime readings near early February averages Wednesday through Friday.

- Widespread precipitation may return for the end of next weekend.

- No arctic air mass expected through next Sunday.

AVIATION

Mid level moisture transport is about at peak over Lower Mi leading up to midnight as low pressure from northern Ontario into the Midwest increases influence on conditions across the Great Lakes. SW flow ahead of the Midwest frontal zone brings milder air into the region that is also relatively dry in the low levels leading to a large virga footprint on radar. The exception being a light wintry mix grazing MBS before shifting eastward during the late night. The character of the air mass also keeps the Great Lakes deactivated from cloud production leaving VFR under a mix of mid and high clouds along the SE Mi terminal corridor through the morning. Low level jet induced wind shear precedes the Midwest frontal zone as it occludes across the Great Lakes from primary northern Ontario low pressure moving to near Georgian Bay. The front moves through SE Mi during the afternoon followed by NW wind gusting around 20 knots and MVFR ceiling that drops briefly toward IFR Tuesday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less in the morning, high Tuesday afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure will retreat to upstate New York this evening as exit region dynamics of the next upper level jet streak expands across all of the central Great Lakes. Steady erosion of static stability in the 6.0 to 20.0 kft agl layer will occur opening the door for a brief chance of precipitation between 3z-7z mainly along and north of the M 46 corridor. Survey of isentropic surfaces in the plan view shows no great upright frontal structure, therefore synoptic lift will be modest and gradual. Model consensus for a warm layer of +2 to +3 C between 3.0 to 5.0 kft agl noses into the far north which has triggered many of the algorithms to suggest a wintry mix including freezing rain. Cold and dry air resides in the lowest 2.0 kft agl so sleet is preferred with the expectation that some of the liquid drops will be working to saturate the column. With regards to the QPF potential for the event this evening, many datasets support negligible liquid equivalent amounts with the 50th percentile of NBM 5.0 at 0.0 inch and the 75th percentile now only showing 0.01 at the tip of the Thumb. In-house time lagged ensemble output has shown a substantial decreasing trend in hourly QPF probabilities for Bad Axe with hourly QPF of 0.01 inch now at less than 5 percent. Both the AIGFS and the EC-AIFS are dry for our cwa tonight. Not expecting any widespread impacts with precipitation tonight and will refrain from any Winter Weather headlines.

Phasing of stronger shortwave and deeper midlevel trough in central Canada will cause surface low pressure to gather north of Lake Superior Tuesday. Latest data supports the passage of a cold front through Southeast Michigan between 18-00z. Warmer temperatures will occur ahead of the frontal passage with 40 degrees likely in Metro Detroit Tuesday afternoon. Cold advection in the surface through 5.0 kft agl layer will then steepen lapse rates bringing at least some low potential for snow showers. Forecast soundings are very shallow with saturation and casts doubt on ice nucleation. For forecast continuity will maintain a dry forecast Tuesday afternoon.

A dominant southern stream looks to take shape over the Southwest United States for the middle to end of the week with fairly low amplitude flow over the upper Midwest. The main weather influence appears to be a slow moving surface anticyclone as it largely remains parked overhead. Daytime temperatures are expected to be near February averages with lows dropping into the teens. Active pattern could then be in store for the end of next weekend as guidance shows upper level troughing ejecting to the northeast. Plenty of uncertainly with the forecasted thermal profiles at this juncture.

MARINE...

Passage of a warm front is now ongoing across the Great Lakes which has and will continue to produce widespread snow across the greater portion of the northern Great Lakes, including north and central Lake Huron. The associated low pressure system with this warm front will progress from northern Lake Superior into Lake Ontario late Tonight into early Wednesday morning. Passage of this system will then draw a cold front over the Great Lakes late tomorrow night through Wednesday morning. Close proximity to the low pressure system strengthens the pressure gradient over Lake Huron while intrusion of cold air reinforces steeper mixing depths. This will bring the likely chance to see wind gusts that range between 30 to 35 knots across north and north-central Lake Huron from 00Z Wed to 12Z Wed. Confidence is still only low to moderate to see persistent gust to gales, so will continue to preclude any Gale products. However, the trend has been upwards for gale potential, so a short fused Gale Warning may be needed prior to the event.

High pressure to then build in over the region Wednesday into Thursday, which will bring lighter winds to the area during the midweek period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning from 7 PM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.