textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold this morning with wind chills ranging mostly between -15F to -5F.

- Mostly sunny today with afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 20s with high temperatures in the 20s persisting through early-mid week.

- Chance for snow showers Monday with expected snow accumulations under an inch. Better accumulation for an inch or greater at the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Dry air has allowed for great radiational cooling conditions this morning resulting in a very cold start to the day. Observations have all of the area down into the single digit low temperatures with several locations outside of the Detroit metro region below zero. The lighter winds are bringing wind chills in the -5 to -15 degree range with some localized spots dropping below -15 degrees at times. A ridge will then cross over the Great Lakes throughout the day centering over Michigan this afternoon. High pressure with the dry air will bring mostly clear skies today for most of southeast Michigan. The exception will be along the Lake Huron shoreline where north- northwest flow will maintain some lower level moisture for scattered clouds. The sunny skies and a boost of a few degrees at 850mb temperatures with the ridge should help increase afternoon high temperatures today into the low-mid 20s. Another chilly night is expected tonight into Monday morning, though increasing clouds late will keep temperatures from falling further. Lows tonight should reach the single digits with minimum winds chills few degrees below zero.

The increasing clouds will be associated with the arrival of a weak shortwave trough that will swing through the Great Lakes Monday. Light snowfall will spread west to east from about 6 am and into the afternoon. Forcing with this trough will be weak. Add in the lack of strong moisture advection (specific humidity less than 2 g/kg and QPF of maybe a hundredth or two) with the dry resident airmass and overall accumulation potential should be pretty limited. Most of the area will have potential to see a dusting to a tenth or two of accumulation with a low probability to achieve accumulation of a half inch by the evening. The passing of the trough will bring a west to northwest lower level wind shift Monday evening into early Tuesday morning offers a period of light lake effects showers/flurries. A shortwave clips the Great Lakes on Tuesday offering another chance at lake effect. Forecast soundings do point toward saturation with respect to ice in the lower part of the DGZ within the cloud bearing layer, which would allow for at least flurry potential. Will keep mention out of the forecast for now given the lower confidence as dry air in the region will persist. Daytime highs through the early to mid week holding mostly in the low to mid 20s with some spots maybe hitting the upper 20s.

A deeper trough will move in late Thursday into Friday presenting the better accumulating snowfall potential for this upcoming week. Some differences in placement of the low pressure exists, which will ultimately impact the snowfall totals. Westerly winds kick in on Thursday afternoon which will bring some potential for lake effect snow showers into parts of southeast Michigan before the better forcing with Pacific moisture arrives Thursday evening into Friday. NBM probability to achieve 1 inch or more has trended higher with the latest run to 70% or greater for much of southeast Michigan. Another arctic airmass will follow this system and likely bring another stretch of lake effect snow later in the day Friday and into the weekend as 850 mb temperatures plunge to -20C or below. This would bring daytime high temperatures over the weekend in the high single digits to the teens with wind chills to -10 degrees or below.

MARINE

Influence of high pressure maintains light (<15kt) winds to close out the weekend. A weak clipper arrives late day Monday but aside for scattered light snow showers, brings minimal marine impacts with accompanying winds holding at or below 20kts. Another high dropping out of the upper Midwest then follows for midweek bringing quiet marine weather.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1127 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

AVIATION...

A residual moisture plume off southern Lake Huron has sustained intervals of MVFR based clouds into portions of metro Detroit. Recent satellite data is indicating these low clouds are rapidly diminishing, with perhaps the ice cover over the southern Lake Huron basin offering some limiting factors in the moisture flux off the lake. These trends are suggesting residual clouds may not last much into the new TAF period if at all. Surface riding and dry air will take hold across Se Mi on Sunday, supporting clear skies and light winds.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.