textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunny, mild and breezy today.

- Dry with mild daytime temperatures will persist through the week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

DISCUSSION...

A surface ridge axis located across the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians will sustain a south-southwest gradient across Se Mi today. This will result in breezy afternoon conditions, especially across the Saginaw Valley and thumb where 25 to 30 knots are shown in the mixed layer on model soundings. This will in turn drive afternoon temperatures in the low 60s.

Low to mid level anticyclonic flow will remain dominate across much of the eastern US for the next several days. The corresponding region of subsidence will sustain abundant dry air across much of the eastern US, including the Great Lakes, through at least the middle of the week. This along with a weakening sfc gradient will support a relatively high diurnal temperature response through next week, with persistent highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the 30s and 40s. Rising geopotential heights across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday will cause sfc pressure rises across northeast Ontario and nrn Quebec, leading to the center of sfc high pressure becoming reoriented northeast of the Great Lakes region. This will result in light east-norheasterly winds off the lakes mid to late in the week, possibly setting the stage for some episodes of fog. Overall, the extensive dry airmass across the eastern US and thermal profiles which will inhibit lake clouds will lead to continued clear skies into at least Wednesday.

MARINE...

Gusty west-southwest wind persists through the day as we sit within the tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the Ohio Valley and deep low pressure moving into Hudson Bay. A 40 to 50 kt low-level jet passes over northern Lake Huron today, but the arrival of mild air will produce increasing stability over the water that will prevent the bulk of higher momentum from mixing down to the surface. Gusts across Lake Huron are forecast to range mainly between 20 and 30 kt. Latest model ensemble data indicate a 40 to 60% probability for gusts to reach 35 kt gales at times within longer fetch areas near the Straits and from Saginaw Bay into central Lake Huron. Confidence remains too low in longevity of any marginal gales to hoist a Gale Warning. The peak in wind magnitude is expected between 2pm and 10pm with a coincident uptick in wave heights. Wind then begins to subside overnight as the jet departs and high pressure builds northward into the Great Lakes. This ridge stalls across the area bringing tranquil marine weather at least through the middle of the week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ055-062-063- 068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.