textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions through Monday, and likely remaining dry through Thursday.

- Temperatures briefly drop below normal today, followed by a gradual warming trend for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Model consensus continues to support dry conditions through Monday and likely through Thursday. Temperatures briefly drop below normal today, followed by a gradual warming trend for the latter half of next week with highs rising +1 sigma above normal.

The well advertised Omega Block remains intact today as the shortwave feature within the eastern trough exits into the Atlantic. Meanwhile, a low-level anticyclone moves in from the north, reinforcing the post-frontal cool and stable airmass associated with ENE flow. In addition to veered winds, surface dewpoints have dropped significantly in the wake of the front, from the upper 40s to upper 20s/lower 30s. Gustiness should wane during the course of the morning, with just a slight uptick again this afternoon downwind of Lake Huron where lower column flow will be slightly more elevated, along with steeper low-level lapse rates. Active subsidence aids in the development of 1025 mb surface high pressure centering over The Straits with influence extending across most of the state into Sunday. Thermodynamically, the lake-modified airmass limits highs to a few degrees below normal, mainly in the low 70s.

The longwave ridge will take precedence over Southeast Michigan on Sunday as a split-flow configuration emerges aloft. The surface ridge will drift slightly south and become more diffuse during the afternoon, as reflected in the relaxation surface pressure gradient. Temperatures return to near-normal with strong insolation potential. The next embedded speed max within the eastern trough drops in from Hudson Bay late Sunday into Monday. As discussed previously, insignificant moisture advection precludes precipitation concerns once the arc of CVA crosses through. Increasing confluence aloft and the redevelopment/amplification of the longwave ridge axis through the first half of the week should maintain rain-free conditions with a steady warming trend. Highs could break into the 80s again by the latter half of the week.

MARINE

Post-frontal northeast flow has led to a breezy overnight period, but winds will gradually subside through the morning. This allows winds and waves to subside below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by mid-morning. Wind gusts may briefly touch 25 knots again this afternoon over Inner Saginaw Bay where water temperatures are warmer and flow aligns with the long axis of the bay. Otherwise, high pressure builds in from Canada affording an extended stretch of quiet and dry marine weather well into next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 PM EDT Fri May 29 2026

AVIATION...

By TAF issuance, the cold front will have moved across the terminals, with post frontal northeast winds lasting through the night. The strength of the post frontal winds will contribute to wind gusts around or over 20 knots through daybreak as cold air advection inhibits the development of a nocturnal stable layer. East- northeast winds will persist through Saturday. The low level winds will undergo some slight decrease during the day as another high pressure systems expands into the area from the north. Persistent low level dry air will inhibit low cloud development, even within the post frontal colder air.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421-422-441- 442.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.