textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with plentiful sunshine continues through mid week.

- Near normal temperatures early week become warmer and more humid Thursday and Friday. - The next chance of rain develops Friday into next weekend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM EDT Sun May 31 2026

DISCUSSION...

Except for a fringe of cirrus, another cloudless day is unfolding across Lower Mi with low humidity and temperatures right around normal to finish off the weekend and the month of May. Temperatures rising into the mid 70s, combined with broad and flat surface high pressure, is promoting a typical lake breeze pattern to keep readings cooler near the shorelines.

Afternoon satellite observations indicate an energetic mid level short wave still moving down from the James Bay region on a meridional track over the eastern Great Lakes tonight and early Monday. This system carves some height falls into the eastern flank of the larger scale blocking ridge while pulling a weak surface trough/backdoor front through southern Ontario. The pressure feature washes out quickly but is effective at reinforcing the dry air mass without much change expected to high temperatures during the early week period.

Consensus of 12Z deterministic models shows the 500 mb ridge rebuilding over the western Great Lakes by Wednesday and maintains good timing consistency from over the last few model cycles. This is the first stage of omega block unraveling as the upper jet picks up strength across both the north Pacific and north Atlantic. There can often be some predictability issues during the transition, however the timing and shape of the 500 mb structure look good compared to ensemble means over the last few forecast cycles. A warming trend is the associated weather highlight in the Great Lakes tied to the increasing height field while humidity remains in check through Thursday.

The current Rockies closed low component of the blocking pattern becomes the focus of rain potential returning by Friday. The circulation is kicked eastward during the larger scale zonal flow transition while interacting with broad lee side surface troughing across the Plains. Increasing POPs in blended guidance looks reasonable across the Great Lakes as pent up Gulf moisture returns northward into the region ahead of the low pressure system.

MARINE...

Light and variable winds observed this afternoon across the Great Lakes as high pressure weakens overhead. A weak backdoor cold front drops through the area tonight, causing winds to flip to the northeast as high pressure expands in from Ontario. Northeast flow along Saginaw Bay leads to breezy conditions Monday afternoon, prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory for Inner Saginaw Bay. Elsewhere, gusts are capped below 20 knots. Extended stretch of dry and overall favorable marine weather persists through much of the work week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.