textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- No precipitation expected through the weekend.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

AVIATION

A dry and stable low level environment maintained within departing high pressure will support VFR throughout most of the night. Some passing mid level cloud for the evening period within modest southwest wind, before the gradient veers with time to west/northwest overnight as low pressure tracks by to the north. Weak frontal passage associated with this system will draw slightly cooler air into the region late tonight and early Saturday. Mixed signal on degree of possible lower cloud expansion into portions of southeast Michigan during this time. Forecast will continue to highlight simply a scattered mention with an accompanying component of shallow fog as winds become northeasterly as far south as PTK by mid morning. Light southeast flow Saturday afternoon with VFR favored as daytime heating effectively lifts/mixes out any prospective pockets of lower cloud.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Dry and warm weather will carry us through the weekend as wave after wave within the southern stream of the jet continues to build stronger ridging through the central Plains gaining more of a stronghold over the Great Lakes. This shift in the southern stream is forcing the colder air back up into Canada while also pushing the northern stream wave train north of the region. This combined with a southern stream cutoff low drifting east across Texas holding associated active weather to our south, will leave SE MI in a void between the two more active weather regions.

For this evening into tonight there is a trough draped across northern Lake Huron that will continue weakening while the mid level shortwave dives to the southeast away from the region. While there is a chance of seeing a few snowflakes or rain/snow mix this evening over the northern Thumb, but the dry resident airmass will make it tough for much other than clouds from occuring. Temps have risen into the upper 30s to 40F this afternoon across much of the area but the northern Thumb is holding around freezing. Dewpoints down in the teens and low 20s will set the bar for low temps potential tonight. Continued warm air advection will likely add a degree or two to these values though.

Northern and southern streams continue to jockey for control over the region through the rest of the weekend leading to a slowly moderating airmass with low 40s Saturday and low-mid 40s Sunday. Early week northward surge with the jet will bring a little warmer air for Monday with max temps of 50 possible. Some fluctuation through mid week but temps should remain above 40 through Thursday.

Next chance of precipitation look arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday as isentropic ascent above a baroclinic zone that should hold just to our south. This leads to a long duration precip event where a mixed precip scenario may setup over lower MI. Early on the deterministic GFS and ECMWF are far apart in outcomes with GFS setting up mixed precip over northern lower and UP whereas the ECMWF is across southern MI. GFS would lead to warmer rain setup for SE MI whereas the ECMWF would keep us cooler with mixed precip possible. We'll advertise high POPs at this point with models agreeing on the general setup, and monitor trends for ptype through the next few days.

MARINE...

A clipper system over Lake Huron will exit to the east later this evening with snow coming to an end and wind shifting to NW at around 10 to 15 kt. High pressure becomes dominant on Saturday with light and variable winds. Relatively benign marine weather persists into early next week with the prevailing storm track situated south of the Great Lakes. The next weak clipper/trough moves through the northern Great Lakes on Sunday with just a slight uptick in S to SSW wind to around 10 to 15 kt expected. A period of more active weather is possible by the middle of next week with multiple low pressure systems tracking through the region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.