textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool (50s) and breezy today with west-northwest wind gusts of 30- 35 mph.

- A warming trend beginning Thursday lifts temperatures into the upper 70s to mid 80s this weekend with additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

* Low for NW crosswind exceedence today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed May 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

A seasonally strong low pressure (1002 MB) system is slowly tracking through the Central Great Lakes this morning. The cold front clears the state around sunrise with good cold advection during the day, as 850 MB temperatures drop below zero. This will support good boundary- layer mixing throughout the day; northwest wind gusts of 30-35 mph should be expected, making it feel raw as highs remain stuck in the 50s. Low-level lapse rates are steep enough, coupled with moisture flux off Saginaw Bay, to support scattered light showers over the Thumb region into tonight. Clouds and winds staying up overnight should keep minimum temperatures well above freezing, closer to 40 degrees.

A warmup commences on Thursday as the upper-level ridge axis builds and arrives Thursday night. As it stands now, both the Euro and Canadian models indicate that southeast Michigan will be caught between two shortwaves Friday morning as the ridge flattens out. Even so, NBM POPs for Thursday night and Friday seem too low. Fast pseudo-zonal flow for the weekend will make for a challenging forecast, with embedded shortwaves potentially triggering convection. The airmass streaming into southern Lower Michigan is warm; the bulk of Euro ensemble members indicate 850 MB temperatures reaching 15 C on Saturday and more or less holding into Sunday. These values certainly support surface highs in the 80s, but uncertainty regarding cloud cover and possible convection could "short-circuit" those high temperatures.

The end of the weekend into early next week features a return to an amplified upper-level pattern. A strong storm system will develop over the Plains as a trough digs over the Rockies and a ridge builds along the East Coast. Strengthening deep southwest flow on Monday potentially leads to our first 90-degree day, but confidence remains low as prolonged showers are possible with the main moisture surge and warm front lifting north.

MARINE...

Low pressure and its associated cold front depart into Ontario this morning. This leads to a gradual drying trend, especially south of Saginaw Bay, along with organized northwest flow. Wind speeds decrease gradually through the day as the gradient relaxes and high pressure attempts to build in from the west. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Thursday as elevated wave heights clip the shoreline in the northwest flow regime. High pressure briefly builds in Thursday-Friday before the next system arrives this weekend. The weekend system brings breezy southerly flow and rain chances to the Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.