textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong wind gusts continue today as arctic air sends temperatures from the 50s into the 20s and teens by later this evening. Wind Advisory remains in effect through this evening.

- Arctic air also brings increasing chances for lake effect snow showers and possible snow squalls this afternoon and evening.

- Wind chills bottom out around zero tomorrow morning with afternoon high temperatures in the mid to upper 20s.

AVIATION

A low pressure system crosses Lower Michigan today, driving a secondary boundary across the terminals. A brief lull in precipitation coverage and rates takes place until midday, then lake effect snow shower chances increase, along with the potential for a snow squall. If a squall occurs and intercepts one of the terminals, it could lead to brief conditions below minimums. Ceilings will vary between LIFR and VFR today. Visibilities drop to IFR in any snow shower. A strong wind field also remains in place today with gusts in the 30-40 knot range. Winds veer westerly with time and gradually decrease overnight. Gusts to exceed 40 knots possible should evening squalls develop.

For DTW...Strong southerly winds veer westerly with time, especially by this evening with crosswind exceedence likely. Some lake effect snow showers are possible, including potential for a brief snow squall.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet..

* High in precip type as snow this afternoon.

* High in crosswind exceedence this evening and early tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 424 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

DISCUSSION...

Linear system has mostly rolled through southeast Michigan early this morning with no thunder being observed. The linger showers on the tail end of the lead moisture axis will push east of the state over the next hour or so. Winds managed to stay under control with these showers aside from a single rogue high wind gust pop ahead of the main line at YIP. Stark temperature gradient across southeast Michigan this morning around the warm front. Just above freezing temperatures in the low to mid 30s to the north and now predominately 50s to the south now that the rain has cooled things down from 60s in the warm sector. Winds on the cool side of the boundary have remained tame so far early this morning, but that is expected to change throughout the morning. Lower level thermal profiles will begin to cool with the northeast progression of the low removing the inversion over time across the north. This will bring a more conducive mixing profile for gusty winds to ramp up while the strong low level jet winds remain overhead.

Today will see a return to winter weather locally as a cold front pushes through southeast Michigan and drives the remaining warm air out. The strong cold air advection throughout the day will send temperatures down into the low 20s and teens by late this evening. The Wind Advisory will remain in effect through this evening as 40 to 50 mph wind gusts will remain possible with the immediate frontal passage and the deepening mixing profiles associated with the post frontal cold advection that will extend well above 6kft this afternoon. The high end potential for today should be more limited than last evening as lower level jet winds will transition from 60+ knots to the 40-50 knots range for today.

An impressive longwave trough axis moves over the region today with an associated meridonally-oriented 160 knot jet streak directly aloft. The aforementioned arctic air filtering in throughout the day will increase overlake deltaT's with support from the parent low will lead to increasing coverage of lake effect snow showers this afternoon into tonight. Models indicating increasing surface instability with daytime heating that will result in steep low level lapse rates with the already strong wind fields. Elevated snow squall parameter across southeast Michigan highlight the favorable conditions for said snow squalls between 12 pm this afternoon to 12 am tonight. Have reintroduced greater chances for widespread snow showers this afternoon into tonight along with some light accumulations as populated NBM was too low. Given the favorable conditions, a localized quick inch of snow accumulation will be possible for any locations that can see repeated rounds of lake effect snow showers or experience a longer duration under any stronger lake effect snow band. Some areas of blowing snow will be possible given the expected gusty winds.

Arctic air settling into the region with 850 mb temperatures plummeting to -20C tonight will support low temperatures between 10 to 20 degrees. Wind chills will be down to around zero degrees for tomorrow morning. A few lingering lake effect snow showers may be possible on Tuesday with daytime highs topping out in the 20s for most of the forecast area. A weak system mid-week offers a chance for some light snow before a warming trend kicks in for the late week period with a return to 40s and 50s daytime highs.

MARINE...

An anomalously strong low pressure system will continue to travel travel from southern Michigan to northern Lake Huron this morning and afternoon. A lull in gust to gales will be possible through the morning hours over north and north-central Lake Huron as the center of the low arrives overhead. Freezing rain and sleet remains likely north of the low pressure system, across northern Lake Huron until the late morning hours as the low begins to exit.

Departure of the low pressure system tonight ushers in a strong cold front, with arctic air filling in over the Great Lakes. This will produce a well mixed environment and will bring the most favorable conditions to see gust to gales for all locations, down through Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. The intrusion of cold air will also convert any lingering rain showers back over to snow showers and will bring the likely chance for heavy freezing spray. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect across Lake Huron and outer Saginaw Bay today. Additionally, isolated squalls will be possible this afternoon and evening, favored across the southern Lake Huron basin, Lake St. Clair, and Lake Erie. Gale potential lasts through tomorrow morning before a brief ridge of high pressure fills in by the afternoon. A Gale Warning remains in effect through tomorrow morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361>363-441>443-462>464.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ421-422.

Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422.

Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.