textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance of snow showers/flurries through this morning and afternoon.

- Seasonable temperatures today and tomorrow. Warmer Friday.

- Trending colder over the weekend with increasing chance for snowfall.

AVIATION

Initial pocket of lower stratus tied to modest cold air advection will lift to the east this morning. This may offer a brief window for limited cloud coverage with a period of VFR. Trailing cold front arrives late morning and early afternoon. Renewed expansion of lower stratus at high MVFR to low VFR ceiling height expected during this time. This may also provide a favorable environment for light snow shower or flurry development. Greater probability exists from PTK northward, where a heavier snow shower could offer brief IFR visibility restrictions. Prevailing westerly winds turning gusty, peaking near 25 knots at times through the afternoon. Lower stratus likely lingers into the evening, before clearing potential increase with time tonight. Wind gust frequency and magnitude steadily diminishes with the loss of daytime heating.

For DTW...A few intervals of very light snow showers or flurries possible today.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning. High this afternoon and evening, then low again tonight.

* High for precipitation type as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

DISCUSSION...

Cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes as cold air advection increases throughout the morning while 850 mb temperatures of -10C to -16C are drawn into into southeast Michigan by this afternoon. Sufficient delta Ts over Lake Michigan and the arrival of a trailing mid-level wave will be enough to produce lake snow showers/flurries through this morning and through the afternoon. Steeper low level lapse rates under the greater mid level support will bring potential for better banding of snow showers focused mainly north of I-69 where best lake moisture flux will reside. Light lake effect snow showers and flurries expected across the rest of southeast Michigan with better snow shower activity holding off until the afternoon across the metro region when 850mb temperatures push to around -12C in the cloud layer. The convective snow showers north of I-69 will have potential to produce snowfall accumulations to around a half inch with lower probability for localized amounts achieving an inch or more. Most areas south of I-69 will see a dusting of accumulation to possibly a tenth or two for any overachieving snow showers. Lower level lapse rates will also support gusty west winds of 30-35 mph during the day that result in wind chills in the teens. Should get some scattering of clouds out tonight that will help overnight lows dip into the high single digits and teens. Lighter winds allow wind chills to only approach 0 degrees for tomorrow morning.

The upper level pattern will exhibit split flow and direct a developing system well to our south and keep Michigan largely free of any precipitation for Thursday while a high pressure moves through. Highs Thursday will be just on the cool side of normal with low-mid 30s for most areas and upper 20s in the Thumb. High pressure slides east Thursday night as a low pressure system pivots across central Ontario Friday. This brings warm advection with the increasing southwest flow and a decent shot at temperatures across southern portions of the CWA achieving the 50 degree mark. The attendant cold front with the low passes through the state Friday night/Saturday morning, but lack of meaningful moisture should keep conditions dry.

Mid level troughing and associated cold advection will then gain greater influence on the region over the weekend leading to a notable drop in temperatures. The next chance for precipitation will be on Saturday in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone and any mid level fgen that is able to materialize over the area. Still some variability in where the better QPF axis sets up. Temperatures should be cold enough by the time precipitation chances arrive for p-type of snow.

MARINE...

Passage of a cold front this morning has shifted winds to the west, with a much colder airmass spilling into the region. Combination of colder air and moisture flux off the lakes leads to lake effect snow showers across Lake Huron through most of the day. High pressure then builds in tonight and Thursday with light winds gradually veering to the southwest by afternoon. The next low pressure system moves into Ontario Thursday night, sending another chance of snow through the northern Great Lakes along elevated portions of its warm front. Increasingly organized southwest flow then develops Friday as the low deepens and progresses east, dragging a cold front across the region early Saturday morning. The frontal passage is the next opportunity for wind and waves impacts across the Great Lakes.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.