textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder conditions today and tonight. Minimum wind chill early Tuesday morning ranging from 0 to 5 degrees.

- Accumulating snow late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Snow totals ranging from one half to 2 inches, with highest amounts across the Saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- Seasonable temperatures through the midweek period, with the next chance of snow late Wednesday night into Thursday.

AVIATION

Improvements expected across the terminals today as stubborn low pressure to the east fully dislodges, allowing high pressure from The Plains to eventually build in. Snowfall continues to taper off this morning, generally holding just east of the TAF sites, thus snowfall mentions have been changed to VFR showers to account for lingering flurries. Main forecast consideration is focused on ceiling trends which are currently stalled in the MVFR range. Eventually, drier air fills in this evening behind a passing arctic front which paves the way for cloud bases to rise and potentially scatter out which translates to VFR conditions overnight. Modest winds hold from NNW near 15 knots today with gusts around 25 knots. Winds trend lower overnight, backing westerly, and eventually southwest into Tuesday morning.

For DTW...Flurries through the morning hours, turning drier by midday. MVFR ceilings expected to hold until late evening with modest winds from 320 degrees, gusting to 25 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this morning, then moderate through this evening.

* High for precipitation type as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

Broad mid level circulation and associated large scale forced ascent finally vacates toward the east coast today. Some lingering pockets of light snow showers will exist yet this morning as this process unfolds and within the background of increasing cold air advection as flow deepens out of the north. Additional accumulation remains minor and focused primarily across the thumb region as weak lake moisture flux continues to contribute to better moisture quality. Otherwise, expansive stratus still featuring a narrowing moist layer saturated with respect to ice and parked within the dgz will maintain intermittent flurries today. The inbound polar airmass yields the coldest daylight conditions this work week. Highs broadly distributed in the 20s, with wind chill ranging from 5 to 15 degrees. Forecast will highlight a window for some pockets of open sky tonight, as increasing subsidence works to lower the inversion. Regardless, expectation for low temperatures to bottom out in the single digits to lower teens most locations Tuesday morning.

Clipper system set to arrive late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Building upper heights in conjunction within emerging low level southerly flow elicits a solid pattern of warm air advection Tuesday. This effectively lifts most locations back toward the freezing mark by late in the day. Narrow axis of greater moist isentropic ascent flanking the lead edge of inbound wave will sweep through Tuesday afternoon. Mixed signal yet on whether moisture quality proves adequate to generate a meaningful response in terms of snow production or if the ambient profile is too dry. Forecast simply outlines a chance for snow prior to 00z, greater probability with northward extent. Notably stronger ascent then arrives 00z-06z early Tuesday night as the southern extent of the main height fall center anchors along the left exit region of a 150 knot upper jet. Greater forcing again edged higher with northward extent, lending to a general gradient in projected qpf from .10" north to under .05" south. This translates into accumulation potential ranging from a couple inches north of M-46 to half inch or less for parts of Metro Detroit on southward. Chance of light snow showers into Wednesday as cold air advection briefly grips the region.

Energetic central Pacific upper jet stream will direct another progressive, mid level wave across the central conus during the midweek period. High variability remains across the collective ensemble model solution space in terms of trajectory and strength of this system. Assessment of the EPS/GEPS solutions point to a predominant trend toward a flatter and more southerly solution, leaving Southeast Michigan positioned along the northern fringe of associated mid level dynamics /if anything at all/. The interquartile range in qpf captures this in showing a spread from nothing to around 0.15" up through roughly the M-59 corridor for Thursday. GEFS holding a more bullish scenario at this stage. Outgoing forecast maintains simply a chance mention for snow across the Thursday period. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures entrenched Wed-Thu, with a warming trend outlooked for Friday ahead of another clipper expected to shear across the northern great lakes early next weekend.

MARINE...

Expansive pressure gradient extends from the Atlantic Coast into the Great Lakes region as a strong low lifts into New England. This gradient is responsible for northerly flow sustained around 25-30 knots. The enhanced flow and thermal trough in place generate heavy freezing spray through much of the day, prompting a warning north of Sturgeon Point. High pressure then briefly fills in tonight-Tuesday to back winds to the southwest and relax sustained winds below 10 knots by Tuesday morning. This quieter marine period will be short- lived as a clipper system quickly arrives Tuesday afternoon. A strong low level jet (45-50 knots) accompanies this clipper, but will struggle to mix gusts to the surface amidst cold water temperatures and stable conditions. A brief period for gale force gusts does exist Tuesday night, but confidence is too low for a watch at this time given the aforementioned stability and progressive nature of the jet. This clipper also brings another round of snow to the region. High pressure then returns mid-week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.