textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures persist through most of the week.

- The next window for accumulating snow arrives Thursday night through Friday.

- Arctic air returns this weekend.

AVIATION

NW surface wind and northerly cloud layer wind occurs as a weak extension of Midwest high pressure builds into Lower Mi tonight. Upstream observations indicate MVFR ceiling still having considerable coverage with northward extent across the central Great Lakes. There are also larger breaks in and around the SE Mi terminal corridor that will be managed in the forecast with short term updates within a prevailing MVFR ceiling forecast. Cloud layer wind remains from the N-NW during Wednesday which keeps Lake Michigan involved in the cloud supply while the presence of surface high pressure adds some uncertainty on the eastward extent of ceiling coverage. There is potential for larger breaks to occur or at least improvement of ceiling into the lower range of VFR during the afternoon into Wednesday evening.

For DTW... A couple hours of clear sky during mid evening is replaced by clouds increasing from the north with ceiling around the VFR/MVFR threshold. These clouds are expected to hold through Wednesday morning until building higher into VFR with some breaks developing Wednesday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

The passage of the early day arctic cold front will result in a quieter pattern in terms of precipitation as drier air fills in across the area. The last of the light snow showers come to an end this afternoon as thinning of the cloud field with the northwesterly flow persists. Flurries may hang on a bit longer into the early evening as last of the moisture is squeezed out of the low levels. Dewpoints have already fallen into the single digits behind the front at the surface while subsidence from high pressure building into the area will help dry out the air above. The clearing of the skies with the cold pool sliding overhead (-13C at 850mb) with the healthy snow pack across the area will all lead to another night of effective cooling with lows forecast to drop into the low single digits above zero. With winds on the lighter side, wind chill values will be limited to between -5 to 5F.

Little relief in temperatures on Wednesday as the high centered to our west keeps a cool northerly flow over southern MI. A shortwave ridge aloft will only act to neutralize any larger scale height falls due to the broader long wave trough dropping over the region. Highs will remain below normal around 20F with lows falling into the mid-upper single digits.

Next chance of snow comes Thursday into Friday as the next shortwave clipper races through the Great Lakes on the nose of a 150 knot jet max. Compact mid level vort max will barrel into the middle of the trough as the parent mid level low will be over far northern Ontario. Precip chances start late in the day Thursday as weak isentropic ascent arrives ahead of the developing warm front with southwesterly flow improving moisture quality. Top down saturation may result in some flurries later in the day with best chances across our northern counties. Chances for accumulating snow come overnight into Friday mainly from 06-18Z as first the mid level wave and upper level forcing arrives, followed by the cold front Friday morning. Best chances and rates are more in the 09-15Z range tied to the low level circulation developing along the frontal boundary. Current probabilistic guidance centers around 0.1 inch of QPF and broad area of 1 to 2 inches of snow and a potential band of around 3 inches tied closer to the low center wherever it tracks. With the strength of the wave and proximity to the baroclinic zone, models are showing temps on Friday increasing to around 32F in the warm sector before the cold front sweeps through. This would be the first time in a few weeks some locations saw temps at or above freezing. DTW hit 33 on Jan 21st with FNT and MBS hitting 33 on Jan 17th.

Yet another round of arctic air is expected this weekend with 850mb temps falling back to around -20C locally with -30C just east of Lake Huron. So expect another round of lows down to around zero Friday night with wind chills below zero. Highs will only rise into the teens Saturday and 20s on Sunday.

MARINE...

Moderate northwesterly winds and colder air will continue as the clipper system pushes off towards the east. Strongest winds remain over the northern and central portions of Lake Huron, given the fetch, where winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the 20-25kt range are possible over the north-central waters- which also would support some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. High pressure dropping out of Canada then expands over the region on Wednesday promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. Another clipper swinging out of northern Ontario is expected to draw an arctic cold front over the central Great Lakes late Friday-Saturday. Strong trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales and heavy freezing spray (for whatever ice-free waters are still there by that point) over Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.