textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms this evening

- Temperatures return closer to late May normals tomorrow through next weekend.

- No rain is currently expected during the late week through next weekend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for thunderstorms this evening, roughly 23-03Z.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

DISCUSSION...

Passage of a backdoor cold front will be ongoing through the morning hours with the frontal boundary expected to slow or briefly stall out across southern Michigan through the afternoon. Initial passage of the front will have minor impacts on temperature trends outside of communities around the Lake Huron/Saginaw Bay shoreline. Daytime highs return into the 80s for most locations, low 70s closer to the Lake. Isolated or scattered showers with some embedded thunderstorms become possible in the late afternoon and evening as a mid-level wave arrives over northern lower Michigan. Better coverage and the potential for an isolated thunderstorm would be most favorable along or south of M59, aligned where a CAPE gradient will reside. Secondary chances, mainly rain showers, will reside through the Tri-Cities given some very weak low-level convergence with some lake enhancement behind the front.

Passage of the wave and arrival of high pressure that builds in from western Ontario into northern Michigan will deepen the western periphery of the trough and will bring a better push of cooler air tomorrow. Strong subsidence under high pressure supports dry conditions with temperature highs holding in the low to mid 70s, cooler closer to the lakeshore. An upper-level wave will drop from Quebec into New England Friday into Saturday and will slowly release into the western Atlantic early next week while an upper low across the Four Corners opens up across the Rockies through this same time frame. This setup will strengthen a longwave ridge across the central US and will enhance high pressure over the Great Lakes into the weekend and early next week. This will bring mostly dry conditions through the remaining forecast period. Temperatures likely return into the low 80s tomorrow, but a secondary backdoor cold front holds highs in the 70s this weekend into early next week.

MARINE...

A cold front has been moving south through the region and will reach southern Lake Huron this morning. The front will continue southward today, eventually passing through Lake Erie later this afternoon or evening. Winds have flipped around to the north-northwest behind the front overnight and will hold mainly out of the north through Thursday. An area of high pressure builds into the region behind the front and will slowly pass south and east through the end of the week. This will result in winds backing to the west Thursday night into Friday. Winds will largely remain below 20 knots through the end of the week with the exception of Wednesday night when winds turn more northeasterly and may gust over 20 knots. The onshore flow will lead to briefly higher wave action as well.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.