textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills of 5 to 15 degrees below zero are forecasted across Southeast Michigan Monday morning.

- A low chance for a brief wintry mix Monday evening north of the I 69 corridor.

- Temperatures are forecasted to reach near 40 on Tuesday with readings right at early February averages Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are sustained tonight by high pressure centered over Lake Huron moving slowly into Ontario and the eastern Great Lakes. The result is clear sky mixed with a few cirrus streamers and a stray patch of stratocu off the mostly frozen Lake Erie as a more persistent SE wind develops. The cirrus component increases Monday morning as the next complex of low pressure systems organize across central Canada and the Plains. A warm front extends from the Midwest into the Ohio valley in the afternoon that is able to generate a band of lower clouds that spread into Lower Mi but still at VFR above 5000 ft toward Monday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly onshore flow has resulted in stratocumulus over Huron County today. Did increase sky cover for the afternoon as surface wind directions slowly veer to the southeast. Upper level confluence leading into 1000-500mb geopotential height rises will support surface high pressure over Southeast Michigan tonight and through the daylight hours Monday. Favorable radiative cooling conditions will lead to another cold night with temperatures expected to fall below zero for many areas. Wind chills Monday morning are expected to range 5 to 15 degrees below zero. Daytime temperatures are projected to moderate into the middle 20s.

An upper level jet streak embedded within a shorter wavelength ridge structure will push into the northern Great Plains throughout the day on Monday. Exit region of the jet streak is shown to phase with deeper potential vorticity anomaly in Canada to drive substantial warm advection wave across Southeast Michigan late Monday night and Tuesday. Best of the warm advection ascent and precipitation appears to be north of the forecast area but enough guidance suggests a shorter duration impacting areas north of I 69 00-06z Tuesday. Current gridded forecast resides in the low to mid chance range for snow or sleet. Current forecast soundings suggest the freezing heights at approximately 4.0 kft agl with minimum temperatures near the surface at a cold -7C. Preference is for colder precipitation types for anything that reaches the ground.

A flatter wave is expected to keep temperatures in check for the middle to end of the week. Tuesday will likely be the mildest day with temperatures in the upper 30s with temperatures Wed through Friday in the 29-32 degree range. Those readings are right at averages for the early to middle February period.

MARINE...

Flow has started organizing out of the southeast as the high pressure center has moved into Ontario. Quiet marine weather persists into Monday, with strengthening southerly flow to 15 to 20 knots sustained. Low pressure then tracks into the Great Lakes Tuesday, drawing a strong cold front through the area with a quick shift to northwest flow in its wake. Local probabilistic guidance supports a chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 knots late Tuesday into Wednesday as post-frontal cold advection ensues. Another bout of high pressure then returns for the late week period, establishing another period of quiet marine weather.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.