textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures Memorial Day through Wednesday, with low chances for precipitation.

- More seasonably average temperatures return late week into the weekend as well as a continuation of drier weather.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet this morning.

* Low for visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings at less than 300 ft this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

DISCUSSION...

While expansion of high pressure overnight initially supported areas of fog development, this has subsequently lifted into a low stratus deck across nearly all of SE MI early this morning. This low cloud and patchier fog gradually scatters through the remainder of the morning as diurnal mixing beings to ramp up eventually resulting in a mostly sunny second half of the day. Center of surface high pressure shifts east out over Lake Erie by afternoon establishing light southwesterly flow locally. Core of warm advection is focused over central Michigan supporting highs across the Saginaw Valley in the lower 80s with the rest of SE MI favored to see temps in the upper 70s to around 80. Ongoing warm advection aloft also looks sufficient to keep the region capped today confining any isolated pop-up thunderstorms (tied to a weak passing shortwave over the northern Great Lakes) over northern lower MI instead. Region remains under the same high Tuesday as it stalls over the eastern Great Lakes. Similar to today, main mid-level warm advection is focused over central MI likely leading the Saginaw Valley to see the hottest temperatures for our area with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Rest of the region can expect to see temps top out in the low to mid 80s.

A backdoor cold front is then set to sag south out of the upper Great Lakes and through southern lower MI over the course of the day Wednesday. A compact shortwave riding along this frontal boundary is progged to track over southern Lake Michigan/SW lower MI Wednesday evening offering chances for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm late day mainly west of I-75 and south of I-69. Broad high pressure dropping out of northern Ontario is quick to follow with its influence holding for the rest of the week.

MARINE...

High pressure built into the area overnight and remains in place today. Flow has become southwesterly across the central Great Lakes as a result. Southwest winds may increase across the Saginaw Bay area today, with speeds increasing to around 20 knots. By Wednesday, high pressure becomes quite elongated, stretching across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. A cold front then drops south across the area late Wednesday, with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The mid-week cold front is not expected to be particularly strong, so currently not anticipating any significant ramp up of winds behind the front. Another area of high pressure builds into the region behind the front and will lead to varying winds throughout the end of the week. There may be periods with enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave activity in nearshore zones at times.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.