textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend progresses through the 50s today, 60s Monday, and into the lower 70s Tuesday.

- Dry weather also continues today through Monday and then showers become likely Monday night and Tuesday with a chance of thunderstorms. An isolated storm could approach severe intensity Monday night.

- Temperatures drop back to normal or slightly below normal for Wednesday through late week.

AVIATION

SE MI holds on the far western fringe of mid-Atlantic high pressure today. Cloud cover is confined to mid/high cloud streaming in from the upper Midwest through tonight. Southwest winds hold around 10kts with afternoon gusts peaking between 15-20kts.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

DISCUSSION...

After a chilly day Saturday, despite plentiful late March sun, the warming trend gets underway today and continues through the early week across SE Mi. There is a greater component of mid and high clouds today, however dry weather and SW wind with 20 kt gusts are supportive for temperatures rising into the mid 50s, a few degrees above late March normals. Wind decouples tonight but gradient flow hovers around 10 kts, enough to counter the radiational cooling influence of mostly clear sky. A few of the more sheltered locations could drop into the upper 30s while most locations hold lower to mid 40s by Monday morning.

Southern Lower Mi remains between Atlantic coast high pressure and broad central Plains low pressure that becomes the forecast focus for the early week period. The warm sector solidifies between these systems during Monday, at least for southern portions of the Great Lakes that remain south of the frontal zone hovering across Ontario, northern Lower Mi, and extending to the Plains low pressure system. There is some evidence in the new 00Z models that suggests we monitor the position of this front that could leak into the Tri Cities and northern Thumb during the afternoon under mostly zonal flow aloft. Prospects are much more certain on the next stage of the warming trend for the rest of SE Mi where guidance brings high temperatures up into the mid and upper 60s, despite increasing clouds during the afternoon.

Plains low pressure migrates into the Midwest and northern Great Lakes while becoming the focus for increasing coverage of showers and potential for thunderstorms approaching severe intensity Monday night and Tuesday. An elevated convective character Monday night is supported by increasing mid level moisture transport into Lower Mi within a plume of 700-500mb lapse rate of 7-8 C/km yielding LREF mean MUCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. This is plenty sufficient for numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms, especially after midnight into Tuesday morning. The Day 2 Marginal Risk is tied to elevated updraft organization supporting hail production within this instability profile accompanied by westerly bulk shear near 40 kts.

Monday night activity shifts into the northern Great Lakes Tuesday morning as the surface based warm sector builds north of the Ohio border. The warm sector builds into southern Lower Mi ahead of a surface low and frontal pattern still showing some solution spread on timing and location details across the northern Great Lakes. Solutions trending slower/farther north and west just allow more time for instability to increase within an initially cloudy warm sector early in the day. Temperature projections reaching the lower to mid 70s lift mean surface based CAPE back to near 1000 J/kg, especially toward the Ohio border. The accompanying wind profile is unidirectional with 30-40 kts of westerly bulk shear, plenty sufficient for organized surface based convection by mid Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.

The trailing cold front is through the Great Lakes by Wednesday morning and sends temperatures back down into the 40s through Thursday. A light rain/snow mix is likely early Thursday as the front stalls nearby to the south and then moves northward with the next low pressure system Friday and Saturday.

MARINE...

Southwest flow is in place this morning, while surface pressure gradually falls as the high pressure center drifts into the mid- Atlantic. Dry conditions are expected most of today into Monday while winds and waves hold well below headline thresholds. A more active period begins Monday night as a warm front moves into northern Lake Huron, backing flow to the east north of the front. The approaching low triggers widespread shower development by Tuesday morning near the warm front, with the system's cold front sweeping through later Tuesday. The front provides a more focused opportunity for thunderstorms, followed by a quick shift in winds to the northwest. Widespread wind gusts are not expected to exceed 30 knots during this timeframe, but could do so on an isolated basis in thunderstorm activity. High pressure then fills in for the mid-week period.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.