textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with temperatures near average through Thursday, then a slight warm-up Friday through this weekend.

AVIATION

An increase in moisture under prevailing northwest flow in the wake of a cold frontal passage yielding an expanding coverage of stratus this evening. Extensive MVFR stratus expected to persist overnight. Any pockets of morning clearing will prove short-lived, as daytime heating in combination with some degree of lake moisture flux solidifies a higher coverage of stratus throughout Wednesday. Prevailing northwest wind turning modestly gusty Wednesday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

DISCUSSION...

An upper jet streak sinking south across the central Great Lakes is driving a weak low pressure system and dry cold front through the region this afternoon. This is part of an elongated frontal zone stretching from north of Lake Superior down to the southern Plains. Brief residence within the warm sector brought temperatures to the lower 40s for much of the area for the first time since mid January, but a return to more typical conditions is expected for the next few days as 850mb temps dip to around -13C behind this system.

For tonight, low-level moisture rides in on the cold advection which will maintain stratus overnight into Wednesday. A few deterministic models continue to show a brief period of deep enough moisture to produce light snow showers or flurries before dawn. Ensemble guidance advertises less than 10% chance for measurable precipitation, so will maintain a dry forecast tonight. Lows settle into the 20s with northwest gradient wind of around 15 mph bringing wind chill into the teens.

Cool cyclonic flow into Wednesday maintains a high coverage of lake stratus across the region with potential for a flurry or two. The upper air pattern becomes increasingly confluent late Wednesday into Thursday which then allows a surface high to build into the area from the Midwest to favor continued dry weather. Thermal troughing will initially be slow to depart within prevailing northwest trajectories, keeping highs in the 30s Wednesday and Thursday, then there is high confidence in a slight warm-up late week. This occurs as the high pressure shifts southeastward and return flow advects higher temperatures into the Great Lakes. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s are likely Friday through the weekend.

A southern stream wave will send a low pressure system across the southern CONUS this weekend, with low amplitude ridging favoring mainly dry conditions across the Great Lakes. There is a subset of ensemble guidance, mainly the Canadian/GEPS suite, that brushes the northern extent of this system into the southern Great Lakes. Even among the GEPS members, solutions vary considerably with regard to QPF amount and precip type. Outcomes range from over 1 inch of liquid rain, to several inches of snow, to dry. With respect to the most recent ensemble guidance (including the majority of GEFS and ENS members that are dry), will maintain just a 20 to 25% chance of rain and snow with room for adjustment later this week. Temperatures are favored to stay on the warm side of normal into next week.

MARINE...

Progression of a low pressure system from northern Lake Superior to Lake Ontario today into tomorrow morning will push a cold front across the Great Lakes starting tonight. Wind direction will continue to back from west-southwest to northwest in the wake of the cold front as wind speeds increase in response to the strengthening pressure gradient and improved mixing depths. The latest model trends have trended later for gale potential with some lower confidence of frequent gale potential. However, some occasional gust to gales will be possible, favored between 05Z to 15Z Wed.

High pressure to gradually build in late in the day Wednesday through Thursday which will end gale potential and will promote lighter winds through the remainder of the midweek period. A clipper system may encroach upon Lake Huron on Friday which has potential to bring wind gusts aoa 20 knots, but otherwise high pressure builds back in over the weekend, maintaining lighter winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.