textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through early next week.

- Chance for rain showers tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

High pressure centered over the Ontario/Quebec border will progress east/southeast into New England as a shortwave trough moves in from the central Plains into the Great Lakes. This combination will drive a warm front across Michigan tomorrow with low-level flow veering from southeast to southwest in the wake of the front. This will usher in warmer temperatures tomorrow and Thursday with forecasted highs peaking in the 70s. For this evening, stable conditions maintain dry weather under broken mid to high level cloud cover. Overnight, there is a weak to moderate signal for shallow fog or very low-lying stratus focused on a convergent boundary as the aforementioned winds start veering. Any fog/stratus would be most prominent around or near Ann Arbor and into the urban Metro and north Metro region, factoring in shallow moisture advection from Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. The one caveat for fog development will be the arrival and thickening of mid-level cloud cover ahead of the approaching shortwave. Some sprinkles or a weak rain shower cannot be ruled out with the arrival of this wave. Some secondary fog chances will be possible across the Tri-Cities, coinciding with a brief period of more effective radiational cooling as the trailing edge of the mid- level cloud shield exits, but this will trend very close to daybreak. Any fog or shallow stratus will rapidly erode after daybreak under the established southwest flow.

The next chance for rain showers will enter Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front progresses across SE MI. There will be a ribbon of enhanced theta-e ahead of the front bringing precipitation chance for all locations. The better moisture is confined to 925 to 750mb and overall forcing remains weak. This will limit coverage and will produce weak qpf output for any showers observed, with totals ranging between trace amounts up to several hundredths of an inch with any rain observed. Otherwise, breezy conditions just ahead and in the wake of the front with gusts around 25 to 30 mph expected. Passage of the front will moderate temperatures slightly to end the week but above normal conditions are still expected with highs in the low to mid 60s. Above normal temperatures continue through the weekend and into early next week.

MARINE

East winds to veer southeast to southwest tonight and overnight after the passage of a warm front. Winds generally remain light in the wake of the front with some localized higher gust found within the north-central portion of Lake Huron, where fetch is more favorable. A cold front is then on track to progress over the Great Lakes on Thursday which will continue to veer winds from southwest to northwest. Prior to the arrival of the cold front, breezy southwest flow with gusts around 25 knots will be likely on Thursday, especially through central Lake Huron. The better gust potential will then transition towards northern Lake Huron late Thursday into Friday morning as flow veers to the northwest. High pressure then builds in this weekend, leading to a period of light winds into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2026

AVIATION...

Quiet conditions expected across the Southeast Michigan airspace through forecast period. The light easterly flow is introducing moisture into the near surface layer immediately downstream of Lakes Erie and St Clair - dewpoints in the lower 50s versus low to mid 40s). There was a short window of MVFR cloud development in the marine plume around midday - which is mixing up and decaying. Expecting some fog formation overnight, with the best chances within this marine influenced region that encompasses the Detroit and vicinity terminals. The presence of mid/high clouds overhead should temper fog and low cloud formation some. Will offer a reduction to MVFR visilibilites as a first step. Otherwise, the flow will clock around to light southerly on Wednesday.

D21/DTW Convection... Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft through tonight.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.