textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today into tomorrow.

- Next chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow into Tuesday. Tuesday carries a heavy rainfall threat.

- Hot and humid Wednesday and Thursday along with additional thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Post frontal anticylonic flow has developed in the wake of the frontal passage pushing instability out of the area and bringing broad subsidence. The upper ridging and surface high drifting across the Great Lakes will maintain the dry and stable conditions today with mostly clear skies aside from a few possible lake clouds around the Thumb. Northerly winds today will make for a more noticeable temperature change compared to yesterday across the Thumb lakeshore areas where afternoon lake influenced highs will be in the 70s. Low to mid 80s can be expected for inland areas under full insolation.

Dry weather will continue through at least the first half of tomorrow as the ridge slides east. A southern stream shortwave will lift northward into the Midwest quickly following the passing of the ridge. A sharp moisture gradient that had been suppressed to the west will be released across southeast Michigan late tomorrow into Tuesday. Precipitation chances creep into central Michigan with lower end chances reaching western portions of the CWA towards the late afternoon, but will more than likely hold off until tomorrow night into Tuesday.

The southern stream wave and deep southerly flow will draw even better Gulf moisture into southeast Michigan on Tuesday bringing the next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The moisture rich environment will result in a heavy rainfall threat supported by PWATs approaching or achieving 2.00 inches, surface dewpoints in the low 70s, tall skinny CAPE profiles, and weak cloud layer winds. The overall severe weather threat looks low given the weak shear and lack of instability/moist adiabatic lapse rates, but water loaded downdrafts could still generate some gusty downburst winds. The limited severe threat leans toward a heavy rainfall threat that is more isolated and location dependent within the urban areas. Most ensembles put QPF amounts at 0.25" to 0.75". A few ensemble members along with local probabilistic guidance point to amounts that could reach 1.00" to 1.50" or greater during the day Tuesday.

Return flow becomes established Wednesday downstream of troughing extending across the northern US Rockies into the upper Midwest. This will bring a chance for warmer temperatures mid to late week into the lower 90s as 850 mb temperatures reach around 20C. Unsettled flow will persist with chances for showers and thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday, so being able to reach the 90s will be dependent on what the cloud cover and coverage of convection ends up verifying. Higher coverage of precipitation and clouds likely brings these highs back into the 80s, while a drier outcome makes low 90s more achievable then in turn would also push heat indices towards 100 degrees and the potential heat headlines. Will continue to monitor the heat potential.

MARINE

High pressure will fill in across the eastern Great Lakes today which will continue to decrease winds across Lake Huron this morning. Winds will veer north to northeast today and will then continue to veer east-southeast by tomorrow morning. Low pressure enters Tuesday into Wednesday which will bring some unsettled weather including periodic rain showers with embedded thunderstorms. Winds still generally remain light through this time frame as gusts hold aob 20 knots, outside of any thunderstorm activity.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

AVIATION...

Expanding surface high pressure across the Great Lakes region tonight through Sunday will ensure dry conditions with light northeasterly winds through the TAF period. Limited low level moisture will likely only support FEW diurnal cu Sunday afternoon. D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms will impact the airspace through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.