textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures persist through Thursday.

- Renewed chance for rain late Thursday into Friday morning, with snow shower chances by Friday afternoon or evening.

- Southwest winds of 35 to 40 mph may be possible Friday afternoon across portions of Southeast Michigan.

- Light snow chances for Southeast Michigan late Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION

Occluded front remains draped across lower MI from Big Rapids to Owosso to Detroit and has moved little through the last several hours. Dense fog has spread across all taf sites this evening and should persist through morning. There is a little fluctuation down to 1/8SM and up to 1/2SM but will go with 1/4SM until a stronger signal one way or another appears. Chance for improvements to VSBYs and CIGs arrives Thursday early afternoon in advance the next rain chances. Low pressure lifting NE out of IA will give a few chances of showers through the day as bands of rain emanate up the frontal slope. The first comes in the afternoon with more widespread rain expected later in the evening. Will include a prob30 for the afternoon activity and prevailing overnight with the nigher confidence in coverage. IFR VSBYs and CIGs are possible again with the overnight activity.

For DTW...Dense fog will carry through the night into the morning before improvements will be seen. Winds will hold out of the SE with a couple chances of rain in the afternoon and again overnight.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling aob 200 ft and/or visibility below 1/2SM tonight. Low for Thursday.

* Moderate for ceilings aob 5000 feet Thursday and Thursday night.

* High for ptype of all rain.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 955 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

UPDATE...

Frontal boundary remains stalled across lower MI from about Ludington to Lansing to Monroe this evening and looks to hold there through most of the night. Fog has been persistent on the north side of the boundary through most of the day and should continue through Thursday morning inversion traps boundary layer moisture from continued snow melt, morning rain and evening thunderstorms for some. Observations have fallen to around 1/4SM across most of the CWA excluding Lenawee and Monroe counties so will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for the remaining 15 counties. If dense fog spreads further south we can add them in later as needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

DISCUSSION...

The warm sector to the 998mb surface low near Minneapolis MN has been in place today across Southeast Michigan. Stubborn near surface stratus below 1.0 kft agl has provided mixed results on the surface temperature response thus far. An impulse tied to another embedded 500 mb vorticity maximum is expected to push across all of the cwa between 21-00z leading to a total occlusion. Forecast soundings and plan view perspective of moisture suggests that a reintroduction of moisture at or around 4.0 kft agl could result in some additional MUCAPE (upwards of 500 J/kg) and a subsequent convective shower or thunder potential in the 23-01z timeframe. Confidence is very low as this moisture/saturation is suggested within a layer that will be very dry from active subsidence in the midlevels. There are indications that capping and CIN will persist outside of deeper sustained lift. Introduced a low chance Pop 30% for areas north of Metro Detroit around 00Z this evening. If a deeper convective cell is able to develop lightning and small hail would be a possibility. High relative humidity late tonight supports a mention of fog in the forecast.

Consensus of forecast data shows the next surface low tracking through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin late Thursday with very strong shortwave/absolute vorticity deepening over southern Lower Michigan Friday. Orientation of the occluded front with trajectory of the inbound vort max suggests that best thermal advections and thetae support will occur across the northern cwa and to points eastward. Periods of Warm/thetae advection with frontogenesis is set for midday Thursday into Thursday night. Latest NBM 5.0 QMD shows relatively modest QPF amounts with higher variance for the Thu/Fri system with the 25th percentile between 0.1 to 0.3 inch and the 75th percentile at an 0.8 to 0.4 of inch. With better frontal forcing, the Tri Cities region may observe the highest precipitation amounts. The forecasted trajectory of the vorticity maximum and mean flow brings strong southwest winds to Southeast Michigan during the daytime Friday. Current data suggests frequent winds gusts of 35 to 40 mph will be possible late morning through the late afternoon Friday over the southern Forecast area.

Latest indications are the last of any occlusion and weak low pressure circulation will be swept out of the area on Sunday. return of colder air increases the potential for ice nucleation and light snow. The current forecast has daytime temperatures Sunday in the lower to middle 30s. Model data suggests that southwesterly flow will return to the region by the end of the period Tuesday. Given the ice covered lakes wind direction will make all of the difference on the temperature recovery.

MARINE...

Areas of locally dense marine fog will persist through this evening and portions of the overnight hours as drier air struggles to become established over the central Great Lakes. Winds decrease a bit tonight, veering southeasterly with slower speeds over Lake St. Clair and western Erie, compared to the Huron basin. The current Gale Warning north of Sturgeon Point will expire on time as the low- level jet axis lifts into the northern Great Lakes. A brief lull in dynamics ensues Thursday as competing systems interface between the eastern Plains and Upper Midwest. This favors a brief period of headline-free conditions. However, an accelerated low-level jet (+40 knots) is expected to return for the northern half of Lake Huron on Friday as the eastern Plains wave deepens and ejects across Lower Michigan. High enough confidence exists in an additional round of gusts to gales, therefore a Gale Watch has been issued for LHZ361 and LHZ362. Additionally, this system will produce more rounds of rain, and even some snow for the northern waterways.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ047>049-053>055- 060>063-068>070-075-076.

Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.