textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow will gradually overspread areas south of M-59 late tonight, with any accumulations by day break less than 1 inch.

- Winter weather advisory in effect for locations along and south of M-59 tomorrow and tomorrow evening, with a winter storm warning for Monroe county.

- Very cold conditions continue next week with wind chills occasionally dipping to 10 to 15 below zero.

AVIATION

Conditions will gradually deteriorate as snowfall spreads further north with time through the morning reaching MBS by mid-late morning. Low VFR ceilings with light snowfall precedes the arrival of MVFR CIGs and VSBYs before the main event unfolds across southeast Michigan terminals between 11Z and 23Z. Heavier snowfall has been trending earlier bringing solid IFR to LIFR conditions to the Detroit terminals by at least 16Z, if not slightly earlier, that then last through the afternoon. IFR conditions also expected to reach up to FNT for a period by this afternoon as well. The higher snow accumulation will reside across DTW airspace with up to 4 to 6 inches of accumulation and 1 to 3 inches up to FNT. Winds to around 10 knots will slow back from the east to the north as the low pressure system passes south of the state. Heavier snow will begin to taper off towards 00Z and after with improvements in visibility while low ceilings linger.

For DTW...Main window for accumulating snowfall will be focused between 11Z Sunday morning to 23Z Sunday evening with peak snowfall rates of a quarter to a half inch per hour between 16Z and 23Z. IFR conditions are expected with periods of LIFR during the peak of snowfall rates. Snow accumulations most likely in the 4 to 6 inch range with lower probability to exceed 6 inches.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 through Sunday.

* High in precipitation type of snow.

* Medium in ceilings of 200 ft or visibilities of 1/2SM in falling snow after 16z Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures climbed out of the deep cold hole this morning and have risen into the single numbers this afternoon. With very light winds, very low dew pts, and lingering surface ridging, radiational cooling could allow for a brief dip below back below zero this evening (across the normally colder sites) before clouds thicken up sufficiently.

The 12z Euro came in reasonably close to its 00z run; thus, the previous updated discussion and thoughts remain intact, and no adjustments to headlines/amounts will be made. To recap: total forecasted snowfall amounts, 5-8 inch for Monroe, 4-7 inches for Lenawee, Washtenaw, and Wayne counties, and 2-4 inches (with isolated 5-inch amounts) along the M-59 corridor counties.

The southern wave is just now moving into Mexico, and does not reach western Ohio until late Sunday. This forcing will support our best snowfall rates Sunday afternoon, as specific humidity in the 850-700 MB layer peaks just above 2 g/kg over Monroe county and far southern Wayne/Washtenaw counties. With the 850-700 MB circulation tracking through Northwest Ohio into western Lake Erie and forecast soundings indicating saturation/forcing hanging around in the -10 to -12 C layer, snow to liquid ratios will average less than 20:1. Also, with the long-duration light snow developing late tonight and continuing Sunday morning, some modest compaction/snow settling needs to be accounted for, unlike most model total snowfall forecasts.

The good news is this wave is fast moving and snowfall should diminish fairly fast Sunday evening. Although, some Lake Huron enhancement may prolong activity snow showers into Sunday night across eastern areas, extensive ice over southern Lake Huron and low level winds backing quickly should help limit intensity and duration of bands potentially impacting the eastern Thumb region.

Continued cold next week, as the next clipper system/re-enforcing shot of cold air (850 MB temps in the negative lower 20s) arrives on Tuesday. Snow showers associated with the arctic front brings the potential of a dusting to 2 inches of snow accumulation.

Another shortwave and even colder shot is progged to arrive Wednesday night, per 12z Euro. Wind chills Thursday morning have a good chance to reach -15 F as 850 MB temps drop to around -25 C and sustained winds hang around 15 mph. Otherwise, Friday night could see advisory type wind chills as winds look to stay up.

MARINE...

Lighter winds persist through the day as a strong high pressure system over the Great Lakes departs into the continental northeast and into Quebec. Light snow to then expand from Lake Erie up through southern Lake Huron overnight as an expansive low pressure winter storm system moves through the Appalachia region. Embedded lake effect snow bands will likely through central and southern Lake Huron Sunday into Monday. Cold air is reinforced within the wake of this low across the Great Lakes early next week, which will bring the return of elevated wind gusts through the midweek period.

CLIMATE...

Flint set a record low today (-24 degrees), and was just 1 degree away from tying the all time record low temp of 25 degrees (set in JAN 18 1976 AND Feb 20 2015).

The record low min temps for today, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: -24 Degrees (Set in 2026) Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for today, January 24th (Flint and Saginaw still have not risen above these values today, as of 3 PM).

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for MIZ063-068>070.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to midnight EST tonight for MIZ075-076-082.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to midnight EST tonight for MIZ083.

Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.