textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer-like temperatures expected through Wednesday. These conditions will bring a low chance of showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday.

- A return to more seasonable temperatures Thursday through next weekend. No rain currently expected during this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

* Moderate for visibilities of 1/2sm or ceilings at less than 300 ft between 9Z-11Z.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM EDT Tue May 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

Light southeasterly flow off Lake Erie late tonight has been enough to pool moisture across Monroe and southern Metro Detroit to generate areas of dense fog. This fog will hold through daybreak before diurnal heating dissipates it latter half of the morning.

Similar setup today as yesterday as the region remains under the influence of high pressure centered near Lake Erie. Continuing warm advection nudges 850mb temps up a few degrees compared to Memorial Day supporting widespread low to mid 80 highs. Mid-level flow around the high keeps the main advection directed toward central MI allowing temps across the Saginaw Valley into the western Thumb to make a run into the upper 80s.

A front sagging out of the northern Great Lakes eventually begins to drop through the northern CWA (north of I-69) as a shallow backdoor cold front late Tuesday night-early Wednesday. The weak, shallow nature of the initial boundary brings little fanfare with its arrival, with only a shift to light north-northeasterly winds being the main change. This looks to change by late afternoon-evening as a compact shortwave drops through the western/central Great Lakes driving the primary frontal slope into the area. Timing window favors areas south of M-59 to see at least a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE by fropa offering a shot at widely scattered showers/isolated thunder. For areas north, earlier arrival lends to lesser diurnal instability availability and more isolated rain chances.

Frontal passage ushers in a cooler, albeit more seasonably average airmass to close out the week. Broad northern Ontario high pressure builds across the central Great Lakes daytime Thursday and slowly sinks towards the Ohio Valley by the weekend. Resultant late week conditions will be characterized by highs in the 70s, lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, and dry conditions.

MARINE...

High pressure over the region is drifting southward and will settle across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today. A cold front will be dropping southward through Lake Superior early in the day before reaching central Lake Huron this evening when it could touch off a few showers and thunderstorms. It will continue southward tonight into Wednesday passing through Lake Erie Wednesday afternoon. Another area of high pressure builds into the region behind the front and will lead to varying winds throughout the end of the week. There may be periods with enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave activity in nearshore zones at times.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.