textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the forecast and a chance for thunderstorms Friday into Saturday.

- Warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION

Light south flow has slowly advected low-level moisture across southern Michigan with continued progression expected through the remaining afternoon hours. mvfr cigs are expected to make it close to the KNFT terminal, with some uncertainty regarding if it will make it across the terminal or stay just shy of it to the south. Latest model trends bring it to this area between 19-21Z. Regardless, low-level flow to then flip north-northwest, which will advect cloud cover back to the south while scouring out coverage tonight. Generally clear skies will then lead to fog concerns with radiational cooling. Some localized denser fog will be possible closer to the Metro terminals, tied to the marine layer.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today through the early evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

Today kicks off the stretch of warm and potentially wet weather which will carry through the weekend. Nearly zonal flow is now in place aloft while the western periphery of a strong surface ridge just off the east coast still reaches back over the Great Lakes. This has lead to a stalled warm front setting up across Ohio with dry, cool easterly flow across lower MI overnight. Early morning temps are largely in the lower to mid 20s but dewpoints are still down in the teens due to the dry air in the ridge. Attention has been on the period of moisture advection this morning possibly leading to a few hours of freezing rain before temps warm into the 40s allowing a changeover to all rain. For the last 36 hours models have been continuing to come in drier with local probs now down to around a 10 percent chance of precip even occuring before 15Z. This is due to less impact from the northern edge of the low tracking through Ohio. Better chance of precip remains in the 15-21Z window when a mid level shortwave currently exiting the Central Plains passes over the region. Still, model soundings look quite dry, never really saturating the dry air between 4-15kft between the low level moisture and mid level wave. So there is a slight chance of some rain showers today, but leaning more toward a grungy day with possible haze and drizzle or mist due to the low level moisture, proximity to the warm front, and upstream obs showing vsby restrictions. So chances are decreasing but still not zero to see a short period of patchy freezing drizzle/mist before the warm up but don't think there will be enough, is any, to warrant much more than a mention.

Dry tonight into Wednesday as confluent flow aloft and a shortwave ridge pass over the area. Southern stream cut off low drifting across the Plains will cause some downstream amplification to the zonal flow pattern with weak ridging trying to form. The increasing height and further northward push of the warm airmass will lead to continued warming trend with temps touching low 50s for some interior locations. Dry most of the day but eventually mid level vorticity will drift into the area and the low level fgen will drift northward with the front which will bring rain chances back to southern portion of the CWA. Surface low looks to remain to the south which will lead to little to no instability, thus just warm advective rain through the day Thursday. The next stronger mid level wave will get picked up by the northern stream front and will track through northern MI Friday night into Saturday. This will much warmer air into the region with highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday and also a more unstable airmass resulting in showers and thunderstorms. Temps will remain warm heading into next week as the jet remains active to our north keeping us in the warmer airmass.

MARINE...

High pressure influence wanes early today as the gradient relaxes, causing winds to weaken. An area of troughing extends eastward through the Ohio Valley this morning offering potential for a bit of freezing drizzle across portions of Lake St. Clair and western Erie, before changing over to non-freezing showers midday. Additionally, split-flow develops later today leading to light and variable winds by this evening, and through the overnight hours. Dry weather returns Wednesday morning as high pressure briefly spills across Lower Michigan, maintaining light winds. Winds organize out of the east with increasing speeds on Thursday as a rain-producing low with an associated warm front lift in from the south, while Canadian high pressure builds over James Bay. The northern half of Lake Huron should reside within the strongest pressure gradient where sustained winds in excess of 20 knots are possible. The gust delta appears quite narrow due to increasing low-level stability and limited mixing, therefore gusts should only peak around 25 knots.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.