textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Decreasing coverage of isolated showers into tonight with mostly dry and cooler conditions tomorrow.

- Dry with temperatures a few degrees above normal by Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Closed low pressure system swirls across the central and eastern Great Lakes today. Cold advection on the back side of this system with the help of the relatively warmer lakes continues to maintain a high degree of lake clouds and scattered rain showers/drizzle across SE MI this afternoon. Iso-Sct rain showers existed across much of SE MI earlier this afternoon with surface temperatures in the lower-mid 40s. The melting layer was and remains a little too elevated above the surface across the forecast area to confidently put any chance of snow into this evening/tonight, so rain p-type will be prevailing in this forecast package. Chance of precipitation will become focused more across the Thumb and east/central portions of the CWA heading into tonight with high degree of cloud cover remaining. Cold advection supports low temperatures tonight down to around freezing.

Low pressure will draw further to the east bringing an end to precipitation chances for most of southeast Michigan tomorrow morning. Though some precipitation chances may hang around across far eastern portions towards the late morning hours. Moist cyclonic flow maintains a fair amount of clouds into tomorrow afternoon. A shortwave ridge quickly moves over the area tomorrow night bringing a period of warm advection with W-SW flow. The next Canadian trough will be rather progressive as it swings through behind the ridge. The greatest height falls and lift remain far enough to the north that best associated precipitation chances will hold mainly over Lake Huron that potential clip the northern Thumb. As it passes by, westerly winds will become well mixed and offer a gusty winds of 25 to 30 mph on Sunday.

The milder conditions moving into the Great Lakes on Sunday will carry into early next week. Daytime highs into the mid-upper 50s for Monday with a slight increase into Tuesday with highs forecast to eclipse 60 degrees. Passing ridge on Monday will keep conditions dry for the day. Another wave Monday night into early Tuesday may offer another glancing chance at rain across the north, but otherwise mainly dry. Long range models depict greater amplitude troughing mid to late next week bringing better chances for precipitation and a return to cooler/near to slightly below average temperatures.

MARINE

A trough of low pressure continues to carve south across Lake Huron which in turn has resulted in strengthening northwest flow both in response to the well mixed boundary layer from cold air advection and from the overall strength of the pressure gradient. Gusts around 25 to 30 knots and rain showers will be likely across Lake Huron through the evening, along with some isolated gust potential to gales across central Lake Huron and closer the the Thumb. Given the lower confidence for gale potential, will continue to preclude any gale headlines. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for both elevated wind gusts and waves.

Wind speeds will decrease through tomorrow as the aforementioned trough of low pressure exits into New England. Lighter winds will be short-lived as a second low pressure system then pushes from the central Canadian Provinces into southern Ontario and Quebec on Sunday. This will initially support breezy southwest flow with gusts aob 30 knots given the more stable conditions under the warmer air aloft. However, as this low departs, winds will veer to the northwest, ushering in another round of cold air. The boost in instability over the warmer lake waters will help mixing depths tap the stronger winds aloft, bringing increasing confidence for gust to gales Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. As a result, a Gale Watch is now in effect for north and north-central Lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

AVIATION...

A sharp upper level wave continues to sweep over the terminals with system ascent sustaining scattered shallow convective showers as pockets of light rainfall. Most of this precipitation has evaporated before reaching the surface but a few of these showers could still offer a brief MVFR visibility reduction. Some ceilings have lifted this afternoon, generally holding at low-end VFR, while additional lower cloud could preserve MVFR conditions from PTK north into the evening hours. Light showers should continue with higher coverage further north, including some additional drops to MVFR conditions. Showers then taper overnight while ceilings fill in and descend with time. Longer period of MVFR becomes likely late tonight into Saturday morning with perhaps some low-end IFR potential. Modest winds linger between 270 and 330 degrees, but the on-going gusts near 20 knots drop-off nocturnally. Drier conditions arrive Saturday in the wake of the wave with low-level drying eventually scattering out lower column ceilings during the afternoon hours for eventual prevailing VFR.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Saturday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for LHZ361- 362.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for LHZ421-441>443.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.