textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm Saturday, otherwise a quiet weekend, accompanied by normal temperatures.

- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

Western periphery of high pressure centered over the eastern Great Lakes will continue to support dry weather under mostly clear skies for the remainder of the day. Return flow from the departing high pressure will allow the nose of enhanced low-level theta-e air to lift into southern Michigan. Increasing moisture advection and weak convergence aloft will provide a focus for elevated ascent, supporting a chance for showers mainly around or south of I-94. Timing for this potential will be from the mid morning hours into the early afternoon. A weak elongated shortwave will move through in the afternoon providing an additional chance for a stray weak shower, followed by a cold front late tomorrow night into early Sunday morning. Overall forcing looks to remain weak for afternoon and evening activity which will cap PoP chances aob 15%. So while mostly quiet, a light shower or stray activity cannot be ruled out.

A secondary cold front will enter Sunday evening into early Monday morning which will be the focal point for showers/storm activity pending where better forcing aligns along the front. NBM holds chances (30%) across the Tri-Cities and Thumb with a subset of global models pushing this potential south across the southern half of the cwa. In either case, PoP values remain low with minimal qpf potential. High pressure quickly builds in on Monday supporting dry weather. More active conditions will build in Tuesday through the midweek period. There is increasing convergence between models highlighting a frontal boundary setting up across lower Michigan. Longer residence time of this front will provide multiple chances for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms, pending the final position of the boundary. Otherwise, temperatures hold around seasonal normal values today and through the weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures building in briefly by Monday after the passage of the cold front.

MARINE...

High pressure will continue to bring benign marine conditions to the region through Saturday before unsettled weather comes back in. An active pattern returns late Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure lifts thought northern Ontario drags a cold front across the area in the morning. Overnight/early day arrival and detachment from the parent low greatly limit any shower/storm chances. Moderate trailing northwest flow develops over northern Lake Huron daytime Sunday with peak gusts between 25-30kts. This front looks to stall somewhere near southern Lake Huron offering an isolated shower chance into Monday. A more dynamic system then lifts out of the Plains and over the northern Great Lakes Monday night-Tuesday. Preceding warm, humid airmass will fuel better scattered storm chances.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.