textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend Thursday into Friday.

- A chance of snow late Saturday.

- Colder Sunday.

AVIATION

Cold advection in the cloud bearing layer between 2.5 and 4.0 kft agl has allowed stratus to persist at KMBS and KFNT this evening. Forecast isentropic analysis highlights well organized midlevel downglide this evening and tonight. Based on satellite trends did push back the timing of the clearing at the northern sites until 09z otherwise, SKC or SCT120 is expected for the remainder of the overnight. Surface high pressure with deep layer dry air will support VFR conditions Thursday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet tonight and Thursday

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

DISCUSSION...

Ongoing post frontal cold air advection within gusty WNW winds will drop sfc temps into the 20s across the rest of the forecast area this evening while 850mb temps plummet into the negative teens. Broad subsidence within the mid levels will lower inversion bases through the night. This will reduce moisture depth, limiting the risk for additional snow showers/flurries overnight. Sfc high pressure will expand into Lower Mi tonight, resulting in a more divergent and anticyclonic low level wind field. This and the reduction in cloud depth will likely support partial to full clearing, especially across the southern portion of the forecast area. Overnight mins in the teens remain warranted given the expected decrease in cloud cover. Low level wind fields will back to the southwest Thursday as sfc high departs to the east. Respectable mid level warm air and moisture advection is forecast to remain confined to the northern Great Lakes Thursday, with dry conditions prevailing across Se Mi. Daytime insolation combined with low level warm air advection will push afternoon highs into the 30s Thursday.

Southwest flow will increase on Friday in advance of a cold front. This front is associated with a deepening sfc low and compact mid level wave forecast to track across northern Ontario Fri/Fri night. Respectable low level wind fields with 30 to 35 knots near the top of the mixed layer will result in breezy and mild conditions Friday. Ensemble means are supportive of highs ranging from the mid 50s near Toledo to the mid/upper 40s across the thumb region. Little available moisture will warrant a dry fropa Friday night. The frontal boundary will stall across the Ohio Valley by Saturday as it becomes oriented parallel to the mid level flow. A weak mid level wave and enhanced mid level frontogenetical forcing is forecast across southern Mi Saturday afternoon into the evening. There is reasonable model agreement in this system producing light precip across the area, with model thermal fields indicating all snow. ECMWF ensemble members support light QPF amounts of just a few tenths, which would only lead to minor snow accums if any. Strong high pressure will then expand across Lower Mi Sunday, resulting in dry and seasonally cold conditions.

MARINE...

Westerly winds begin the process of gradually weakening tonight as upper Midwestern high pressure swings across the southern Great Lakes. Said high is quick to depart daytime Thursday as a weak disturbance slides over the northern Great Lakes shifting winds to the southwest locally. Associated snow showers are confined to northern half of the Lake Huron. Southwesterly winds strengthen daytime Friday in response to strong low pressure tracking over northern Ontario. Despite 40-50kt winds developing aloft during this timeframe, milder airmass should greatly limit overlake mixing capping potential peak wind gusts at 30kts. An arctic cold front quickly follows Friday night ushering in a much colder airmass as well supporting a 4-6hr window for northwest gusts to exceed 34kts over the northern third of Lake Huron (currently 70% probability to reach gales). High pressure then follows for the latter half of the weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for LHZ361- 362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.