textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential exists for snow showers to develop through early tonight. The highest coverage with greatest accumulation potential will exist along and between the I-94 and I-69 corridors. Additional accumulation from a dusting to one inch with only localized areas over an inch.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from tonight through Saturday morning due to dangerously cold conditions. Wind chills well below zero are expected, reaching a minimum of -15 to -25F Friday morning.

- Confidence is increasing for accumulating snowfall on Sunday, with potential for several inches across southeast MI, particularly in the south.

AVIATION

Lake Michigan moisture flux within a westerly flow regime is sending MVFR ceilings and scattered lake effect snow showers into southeast Michigan. Greatest concentration is focused from MBS to PTK to start the TAF period. An inbound arctic front will maintain convergence within this zone and carry strong lake effect bands into southeast Michigan over the next several hours. More intense bands look have better chance to impact the PTK and FNT corridor with a lesser chance to impact the Detroit metro terminal corridor. A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will exists in and around ongoing snow showers into tonight. The potential for VFR flurries will then exist through much of the night after 06Z. Winds are expected to turn northwesterly tonight as well with the passage of the arctic front while remaining gusty to 20-25 knots. Drier air emerges in the wake of the front, which may allow for some scattering out of lower ceilings tomorrow by around sunrise tomorrow morning. It does appear at least a SCT/BKN lake effect cloud deck will redevelop by the afternoon.

For DTW...Greatest potential for scattered snow shower development from 00Z through 07z tonight. A dusting up to an inch possible if heavier band manages to impact DTW. Probability remains low for the higher accumulation outcome.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings aob 5000 feet through through tonight. Low Friday morning.

* High for precip type as snow through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

DISCUSSION...

Clipper moving into the northern Great Lakes being weaker than previously modeled allowed westerly low level winds to hold across the region today. This has maintained lake effect streamers, some heavy- particularly this morning, into the M-59/I-69 corridors. Little expectation for change for late afternoon-evening timeframe with westerly winds keeping scattered snow showers streaming across the bulk of SE MI capable of a quick dusting to a half inch in heavier activity. Clipper system eventually drives an arctic cold front through lower MI late evening-tonight with models trending a bit slower, arriving between 7-11PM. Polar continental origin keeps accompanying moisture anemic with this frontal boundary instead augmenting/enhancing ongoing lake effect. Given lead-in flow favoring lake effect snow showers primarily focused from the I-69 to I-94 corridors, this stretch would be favored to see bursts of higher intensity cells/bands supporting a quick half to one inch accumulation with localized amounts in excess of an inch. Shift to northwesterly flow and significantly drier airmass post front cuts off activity into SE MI with only flurries at best going into Friday.

Coldest air of the season thus far settles over the Great Lakes Friday as 850mb temps crater to near -30C. A midnight high is likely as temperatures fall from the teens tonight to around 0F (give or take a couple degrees on either side) by Friday morning with diurnal heating only nudging temps back to positive single digits- near daily record low max highs. Strong cold advection promotes blustery WNW winds throughout tonight/daytime Friday with gusts ranging 25- 35mph overnight/Friday AM weakening towards 20-25mph Friday PM. Resultant wind chills bottom out between -15 to -25F by Friday morning and only recover to negative teens/single digits later day. Strong arctic high pressure then builds in Friday night bringing light winds by Saturday morning however also promoting clearing skies for the night. This allows actual temperatures to fall towards -10F if not negative teens threatening the daily record low min temps. Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect for both Friday morning and Friday night-Saturday morning as a result.

Attention then turns to the broad southern CONUS winter storm system for the weekend. Aside from the GFS, which has trended north to an degree as well, ECMWF/Canadian model families (and now the NAM) remain firm on the northerly track clipping southern lower MI with little run-to-run variation lending confidence for impactful accumulating snowfall Sunday, particularly over the southern half of the CWA where these solutions are consistent wanting a 0.25-0.45" QPF range. Lead snow could reach the southern areas by midnight Saturday night though the main accumulating snowfall looking to fall roughly between 12Z Sun-06Z Mon. Mid-range model soundings are advertising DGZ saturation from 950-500mb for at least a portion of the event which does offer some concern for ample available dendrites increasing snow ratios above the average 10-12:1. However within ensemble guidance, little change in probabilities of exceedence of 6" with really only Monroe county seeing noteworthy chances of 20-30%. With this current limited footprint for potential warning criteria snowfall and only now just getting into both the mid-range model and watch window, no headline decisions were considered for this forecast package.

MARINE...

An arctic airmass will continue to expand across the Great Lakes with the coldest air arriving overnight. The expansion of arctic air will maintain strong overlake instability and a deep mixing layer which will retain breezy conditions. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots are expected through tomorrow morning with gust to gales most likely across central and southern Lake Huron, where a Gale Warning remains in effect. For locations north, some isolated gust to gales remain possible, especially through tomorrow morning. Otherwise, a heavy freezing spray warning remains in effect for all of Lake Huron given the cold temperatures and breezy conditions. Last, low-level convergence will support the development of snow squalls which become more likely tonight and overnight, favored across central and northern Lake Huron. Rapid reductions in visibilities are likely under any snow squall.

Arctic air holds over the weekend but a reduction in wind speeds will commence late Friday into Saturday as a strong high pressure system expands over the Great Lakes. An expansive low pressure system over the eastern US will clip the southern Great Lakes Sunday, bringing widespread light snow through the day.

CLIMATE...

The record low max temps for Friday, January 23rd.

Detroit: 6 Degrees (Set in 1883) Flint: 6 Degrees (Set in 1959) Saginaw: 3 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low min temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: -13 Degrees (Set in 1963)

The record low max temps for Saturday, January 24th.

Detroit: 4 Degrees (Set in 1963) Flint: 5 Degrees (Set in 1963) Saginaw: 8 Degrees (Set in 1961)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for LHZ361>363- 462>464.

Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Friday for LHZ363-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ444.