textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A slow moving cold front brings and band of light rain showers with broken coverage this morning.

- Another round of rain showers with wider coverage and greater intensity develops early tomorrow morning.

- Dry weather and cooler but still near normal temperatures follow behind the front Friday afternoon and Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures move in Sunday and Monday but also with an active rainfall pattern early next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for ceilings at or below 5000 ft today. Medium late tonight into Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

DISCUSSION...

The line of rain showers now moving in across the Tri-Cities will continue to progress across Southeast Michigan through the morning hours with an advancing cold front. Better coverage is expected across the Tri- Cities and Thumb, aligned with the stronger forcing. Frontolytic tendencies increase as the front progresses towards the Metro region and into the MI/OH border later this morning and into the early afternoon hours. Expectation is for the line of rain showers to hold up reasonable well this morning with some waning coverage possible late this morning before the frontal boundary stalls out around the state line in the afternoon. The stalled boundary will support the low chance for lingering rain showers through the afternoon and evening across Monroe and Lenawee counties. High pressure briefly fills in in the wake of the cold front, promoting clearing trends and sunshine across most of the cwa. The exception will again be near or south of I-94 where the stalled boundary will maintain the chances for more persistent cloud cover. Steep low level lapse rates during daylight hours will efficiently mix into the stronger winds aloft, bringing breezy conditions with gusts peaking around 35 mph.

Aforementioned front will will lift back north tomorrow morning as a nocturnal jet expands across southern Michigan. Forcing along the front and strong unbalanced flow on the nose of the jet will generate widespread rain showers across SE MI through the morning. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out where the forcing is maximized but overall the environment remains stable, promoting mainly rain showers. A strong high pressure system builds in late Friday into Saturday. Building subsidence ends rain chances through Friday afternoon, leading to partly sunny/mostly cloudy conditions as lingering boundary layer moisture holds under an established inversion. High pressure centers over the Great Lakes Saturday. Strong subsidence with daytime mixing will scour out clouds, leading to sunny skies and seasonal temperatures.

Departure of high pressure into New England and western Atlantic with development and passage of low pressure over the northern Plains will set up a moderate pressure gradient over the Great Lakes and will usher in much warmer temperatures from the Plains into the region along with along with an uptick in moisture. This will bring a period of above normal temperature, likely with highs in the 60s to low 70s at times, along with unsettled weather. Passage of the warm front and trailing short wave brings the chance for rain showers on Sunday and Monday. Additional chances for precipitation will exist Tuesday with glancing shortwaves, and again through the midweek period with the passage of a cold front. Overall, above average temperatures with multiple rain and thunderstorm chances are expected through the early to mid week period.

MARINE...

Southerly flow gradually decreases this morning and veers toward the west throughout the day, behind an Ontario low pressure system and its associated cold front. Strong low level flow tied to the passing low also departs which ensues peak morning gusts stay below gales, particularly for central Lake Huron where there was prior concern. The wave response becomes less prominent as the day continues, but still exceed Small Craft Advisory criteria for the southern Huron nearshore zones, therefore an advisory remains in effect. Rounds of showers decrease from northwest to southeast today, with low potential for thunder. A wave lifting out of The Plains leads to additional opportunities for showers and perhaps a thunderstorm tonight and Friday, while some light snowfall is more likely for the north/central Huron basin. High pressure then builds out of the Upper Midwest to start the weekend with drier and weaker northwest flow. Active weather will be possible again Sunday through Tuesday due to several passing disturbances. Potential exists for gusts to gales, mainly late Sunday into Monday.

HYDROLOGY...

A cold front brings a band of rain showers first into the Tri Cities this morning morning which then moves to the south and east across the rest of SE Michigan during the day. Broken coverage of showers produces rainfall totals generally less than 0.2 inch as the band weakens while moving through the region and then exits by late afternoon. A second round of showers develops mainly after midnight Thursday night and lasts through Friday morning. This system brings higher rainfall amounts over a wider area averaging about 0.5 inch in a 6 to 12 hour time window. There is a chance for localized totals near 1 inch where embedded thunderstorms occur before this pattern also exits southward and eastward Friday afternoon. Flooding potential remains low with this event, although the new rainfall could slightly delay drainage from river and stream systems after the heavy rain that occurred last weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.