textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with below normal temperatures expected through the rest of the workweek.

- Next chance for showers/storms arrives late Saturday night into Sunday while temperatures climb into the mid-upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

An upper level jet streak will eject through the basal subgeostrophic portion of Eastern North America troughing today causing significant filling of geopotential heights over the central Great Lakes for the end of the week. Low to midlevel temperatures will steadily moderate over the coming days with 850mb temperatures now at +7C to +8C rising +12C to +13C by Friday evening. High temperatures today are expected to be in the upper 70s with low to middle 80s by Saturday. Strong upper level low pressure system over Hudson Bay will help facilitate well organized northwest flow and troughing over the Great by late Saturday and Sunday.

Models have been adamant in forecasting an abundance of shortwave energy digging through Lower Michigan in northwest flow the latter half of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. From this vantage point, precipitation chances appear to be scattered during the late weekend period with the strongest synoptic support for low pressure arriving sometime late Monday or Tuesday. Conditions project to be very warm and humid Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s.

MARINE

Slowly warming airmass over the next couple of days, as 850 MB temps reach around 12 C on Friday. With the center of the surface ridge over the southern Great Lakes today into Friday, the lightest winds will be over Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. Even over Lake Huron, wind speeds should remain predominately under 20 knots. A surface trough slowly passing through during the weekend will bring a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms, though winds are expected to remain light.

The next notable storm system arrives on Monday, as low pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes. Strong thunderstorms are possible as the cold front works through the Central Great Lakes during the evening hours. Northerly winds behind this system Monday night into Tuesday have the potential to reach and exceed 20 knots for a period of time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

AVIATION...

Ideal VFR aviation weather is provided by a broad area of Midwest high pressure as it builds into southern Lower Mi and the Ohio valley late tonight and Thursday. After clear sky and light wind during the night, a fair weather cumulus field returns in the afternoon but with less coverage compared to Wednesday. These clouds dissipate in favor of clear sky again Thursday night.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms forecast.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.