textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy with well above normal warmth today.

- Scattered showers tonight into tomorrow south of I-69.

- Turning more seasonable tomorrow into Thursday with additional rainfall Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Strong cold front brings more windy conditions Friday as conditions becomes chillier Friday night into Saturday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for thunderstorms tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

Lingering elevated shower and thunderstorms are moving across central/northern lower Michigan and Lake Huron early this morning. This activity has been forced by moist isentropic ascent with the increasing nocturnal jet atop a west to east frontal zone. Elevated instability brought embedded thunder as this activity rolled through. Bulk of activity has pushed east of the forecast area with a few lingering showers and thunderstorms expected to be out of the area by 8 am.

Still good agreement that a period of drying will occur in the wake of this mornings precipitation as surface low pressure tracks across and east of northern Lower Michigan. With skies clearing across much of the area for bulk of the peak heating period, high temperatures will again make a run into the 80s as S-SW winds maintain warm advection for one more day. The sagging cold front will hold off long enough across the south for high temperatures to make a run at the record high temperature for October 13th at DTW (see climate section). Mixing ahead of the cold front and tightened pressure gradient will bring wind gusts this afternoon up to 25-30 mph. Cold front settles along the southern MI border this evening allowing overnight lows to fall into the 50s.

This cold front is forecast to stall out around the southern MI border tonight into Wednesday while the gulf ridge holds in place. This will maintain a west-southwest flow regime allowing for additional gulf moisture to stream into the Ohio Valley. Shortwave energy is forecast to eject out of the Rockies east of a closed mid level low along this frontal zone developing additional focused south of I-69 starting by or shortly after midnight and continuing through morning with greater focus along MI/OH border with time. Limited instability north of the frontal boundary brings a low chance for a rumble of thunder mainly during the overnight period. Post frontal airmass will offer afternoon temperatures in the 60s for most of the forecast area. It looks like dry conditions will prevail for Wednesday afternoon as surface high pressure moves across the upper midwest bringing northerly flow that will drive the nearby boundary further south.

More typical fall temperatures expected to hold into Thursday. A merging split flow pattern with a strong Canadian trough and a wave lifting out of the central plains will yield an influx of more gulf moisture as the short term pattern becomes increasingly more dynamic over the Great Lakes. A surge of likely widespread rainfall will push into southeast Michigan Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with a cold front sweeping through Friday morning. In addition to the strong cold advection behind the front and the potential for lingering lake enhanced rain showers, expect a windy Friday as gusts may reach 30-40 mph. Temperatures towards -8C at 850 mb arrive Friday night offering temperatures down into the low 30s to start Saturday morning. Drier conditions develop Saturday with temperatures still about 10 degrees below normal for Saturday afternoon. Inbound high amplitude ridge does allow for a rather quick recovery back towards more normal temperatures for Sunday.

MARINE...

Low pressure will travel through northern lower Michigan this morning. This approaching system will strengthen the pressure gradient, increasing the magnitude of southwest flow across southern Lake Huron, Lake St. Clair, and Lake Erie. More tempered northerly flow will be found across northern Lake Huron through the morning. Conditions remain very stable under southwest flow as air temperatures remain very warm for this time of year, so any elevated gusts will likely be infrequent to start. There will be a window in the later afternoon and evening hours where winds back to the west as low pressure departs the region. This window of backed flow is where elevated mixing depths just will be high enough to where gusts around 20 to 25 knots are possible. Small Craft Advisories are in effect from the Saginaw Bay to Port Huron for this potential. Any elevated winds will then quickly diminish in the later evening hours as the pressure gradient rapidly weakens.

A cold front will then push through the Great Lakes Wednesday, stalling across southern Michigan by the afternoon. The favorable northwest fetch will produce wind gusts 20 to 30 knots across northern Lake Huron. High pressure to then build in through Thursday which will bring a period of light winds for the day. Confidence is increasing for a strong cold front to pass Friday into Saturday. Instability will increase over the lakes in the wake of the front as cold air flows over the warmer waters. Coupled with longer duration northwest flow, a high-end gale event is looking increasingly likely to end the week.

CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for October 13th:

Detroit: 83 Degrees (Set in 1975) Flint: 83 Degrees (Set in 1975) Saginaw: 86 Degrees (Set in 1930)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.