textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of accumulating snow tracks through the region this evening. Snow totals ranging from one half to 2 inches, with highest amounts across the Saginaw valley and northern thumb.

- Chance of snow showers Wednesday morning, with minor accumulation possible.

- Seasonable temperatures through the midweek period.

AVIATION

Predominately VFR conditions will prevail today with a few scattered low clouds possibly bringing some brief periods of MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, winds turn out of the southwest while becoming gusty up to 25 knots. Clipper system then arrives this evening bringing a relatively short period of snowfall roughly over a 3 hour period for all terminals starting about 22-23Z across MBS and reaching DTW terminals by 00-01Z. Better potential for MVFR ceilings will be across MBS and FNT. Area of slightly higher snowfall intensity pushes east by 04z. Frontal boundary passing through turning winds out of the west tonight while cold advection brings scattered light lake effect snow showers and MVFR ceilings through tomorrow morning.

For DTW...Best chance of snow arrives at 00-01Z this evening and probably only last about 3 hours. Current forecast is for around a half inch of accumulation.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet through this afternoon. High tonight.

* High for precipitation type as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

DISCUSSION...

Generally benign weather conditions expected through most of the daylight period today. Resident polar thermal profile will steadily vacate within the backdrop of modest height rises and strengthening warm air advection as low level flow emerges from the south within the immediate wake of exiting surface ridging. This will support highs in the upper in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Increase in gust magnitude and frequency into the afternoon affords some gusts into the 30 mph range. Probability for an initial period of light snow this afternoon along the main wing of isentropic ascent remains quite low owing to lack of greater moisture quality or depth. Main focus remains tied to roughly a 3-4 hour window of strong mid level forcing this evening associated with the inbound clipper set to sweep across the lower peninsula. Expectation remains for a linear band of snow to expand from northwest to southeast across the area between 23z and 03z. Slightly greater and longer duration of ascent noted north of I-69, but with all areas capped on snow accumulation potential given the limited timeframe. Outgoing forecast maintains a general distribution from half inch or less M-59 corridor southward to 1-2" north of M-46. Attendant cold front arrives during the early morning hours. The ensuing advective process with possible/brief enhancement from a trailing mid level wave and lake moisture flux will maintain the potential for intervals of light snow shower development into Wednesday morning. Minor additional accumulation possible with this transient activity.

Evolution toward a split flow upper pattern with the main storm track held to the south will leave southeast Michigan generally void of impactful weather concerns through the remainder of the work week. Forecast will continue to highlight temperatures Wed and Thu on the cooler side of average with broad, weak mid level troughing governing conditions. Warming trend noted Friday as southwest flow strengthens ahead of a clipper system projected to track by north of lake Superior. Strength of the advective process looks to push temperatures well into the 40s. No real evidence of meaningful moisture advection ahead of the inbound attendant cold front at this stage for Friday night, so dry conditions maintained throughout the late week period.

Northern stream will increase influence this weekend with general mid level troughing holding firm. Noteworthy downturn in temperatures likely at some point as the local area resides north of the main baroclinic zone and low level flow turns northerly. The underlying pattern suggests some potential for brief interludes of mid level fgen to materialize as the upper jet fluctuates atop the elevated frontal zone. This may yield an opportunity for light snow development during this time with further forecast revision of precip probability likely this period.

MARINE...

Northwest flow early this morning shifts to the south as high pressure drifts east of the Great Lakes. Flow then strengthens as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of the next low pressure system that will track across Lake Superior today and into Ontario tonight. Strong low level jet winds (50-55 knots) will be anchored to the warm advection portion of this system, with majority of models keeping winds elevated this evening and overnight. Frequent gusts look to stay capped around 30 knots, although a few sporadic gusts to gales will be possible mainly for shoreline areas. Higher confidence item with this low is a period of snow this afternoon into tonight. Flow veers to the west early Wednesday morning as a cold front sweeps across the area, with a colder airmass filling in behind it to generate lake effect snow showers for much of the day Wednesday. Winds subside through the day with the return of high pressure Wednesday night, followed by another low pressure system that tracks across the Ohio Valley. The track of the low looks to stay well south of the Great Lakes, although the northern fringe of the precipitation shield may clip Lake Erie late this week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.