textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Tri Cities and northern Thumb until 11 am this morning.

- Strong winds develop again this afternoon with a Wind Advisory beginning at 11 AM for areas along and south of I-69, including metro Detroit to the Ohio border.

- A line of showers and thunderstorms moves through Lower Michigan tonight, with some strong to severe storms possible. A Marginal Risk is in place for all of southeast Michigan with damaging winds as the main threat.

- Windy Monday with gusts to 45 mph possible as arctic air sends temperatures fall from the 50s Monday morning into the 20s by Monday evening. Arctic air also brings increasing chances for lake effect snow showers and possible snow squalls.

- Wind chills bottom out around zero Tuesday morning with highs only in the mid to upper 20s.

AVIATION

An elevated warm front lifts across the terminals from south to north today, leading to a transition from light snow/flurries, to brief freezing rain/drizzle, to a few (liquid) rain showers, and then becoming dry and gusty for the afternoon. Latest radar trends and model data suggest that the Metro Detroit terminals should remain too warm for much frozen precipitation the rest of the morning before being the first to dry out. Further north, especially MBS, should continue to experience MVFR/IFR snowfall until the hydrometeor transition gets underway. It will also exhibit a longer period of MVFR, while the other terminals mostly hold at VFR. Strong warm advection with intense low-level winds allows gusts to exceed 30 knots by this afternoon. A low pressure system crosses Lower Michigan tonight, driving a cold front across the terminals overnight. Very gusty showers with some embedded thunderstorms are possible, and localized gusts near 50 knots possibly affecting some of the terminals.

For DTW...A few morning flurries followed by a light shower or two, then trending dry and windy for the afternoon then into the early evening. A line of gusty showers and some thunderstorms work through from the west late tonight. Convective gusts possibly approach 50 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 this morning.

* Moderate for snow as the precip type early this morning, then high for rain after 12Z before drying out.

* Low in thunder late tonight into Monday

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 542 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

DISCUSSION...

Snow is ongoing across the northern half of the forecast early this morning after a decent period of virga showers earlier in the night. The warm nose will make greater inroads into Michigan through the morning in response to the dynamic low pressure system drawing closer, which will continue to push main area isentropic ascent further north. Forecast snow amounts remain mostly on track with latest guidance pushing total snowfall amounts up slightly. Isolated locations across northern Midland and Bay County reaching near 4 inches of snowfall accumulation and to around an inch possible down towards the I-69 corridor. There remains a 2 to 3 hour window for wintry mix, including light freezing rain, possible through about 8 am for areas north of I-69 where surface temperatures are at or just below freezing. Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 11 am this morning.

Precipitation should be coming to an end between 11 am and 2 pm with maybe a few stray showers possible during this time. Southeast Michigan will then transition to warm advection through the day while a strong SSW low level jet of 50-60+ knot jet at 850mb arrives east of the low moving through IL/WI and southern Lake Michigan this afternoon/evening. East-southeasterly winds at the surface will become more south to south-southwest this afternoon and open the door for better mixing potential that will tap into these very strong lower level wind fields. Forecast soundings present a period of mixing up to 5kft or greater through the afternoon, which should easily bring down wind gusts to 45 mph or greater. Greatest confidence for this resides in the warm sector, which through the afternoon, looks to reach up to around the I-69 corridor before eventually being draw further north. Forecast soundings showing slightly better stability north of I-69 until the later part of the night when the cold front slides through and cold advection bring better mixing here. Will hold off on expanding the Wind Advisory north with this forecast cycle given that if better potential arrives earlier, it would be towards the late afternoon early evening hours. But, it does appear there will probably be an expansion of the Wind Advisory to some extent and possible extension in time for the current Advisory into Monday as cold front sweeps through and cold advection is established.

Temperatures within the warm sector will be rising into the 60s up through the I-69 and near 70 degrees along the southern border. Winds will also usher in dewpoints to around 50 degrees by this evening. This moisture will support a line of thunderstorms that will be ongoing along the advancing cold front and push through southeast Michigan between 2 am and 8 am tonight/Monday morning. The environment the linear system will be moving into across southeast Michigan will be one of high shear, but will be lacking in instability as best lower level moisture gets pinched off and some degree of nocturnal stability sets in. The less impressive environment has prompted a removal of the Slight Risk, but has left the Marginal Risk in place for all of southeast Michigan. Given the wind fields alone and strong forcing with the front, any convection that can manage to get surface based will have the potential to produce damaging winds. The lack of surface instability also lowers the tornado threat as well.

An impressive longwave trough will be over the region Monday with an associated S-N oriented 160 knot upper jet streaking over the central Great Lakes. Arctic air will quickly drive into southeast Michigan during the day resulting in temperatures falling from the 50s in the morning to below freezing in the afternoon and into the low 20s and teens by Monday evening. Combination of the cold air and kinematics will likely result in a strong lake effect response. The result will be snow showers and possible squalls as a little surface instability begins to develop with daytime heating in the afternoon. As mentioned earlier, the possible extension of the Wind Advisory into Monday will also play into the snow squall potential during the afternoon.

Arctic air will send wind chills down into the low single digits to several degrees below freezing Monday night/Tuesday morning. A chance for lake effect snow showers may carry into Tuesday morning as cold air lingers over the region. A clipper system will swing through Michigan on Wednesday presenting a another period of more widespread snow. Accumulations look to be limited given the shorter duration and warmer temperatures. Warmer weather is expected to return for the second half of the week.

MARINE...

An anomalously strong low pressure system will travel from southern Lake Michigan late this evening, strengthening as it moves in across northern Lake Huron by Monday morning and afternoon. This will bring a wide array of unsettled conditions, including extended windows for gust to gales, rain showers, snow showers, and highly localized freezing rain/sleet chances.

For this morning... A warm front and associated strong low-level jet will push from south to north across the Great Lakes, stalling over north-central Lake Huron by this afternoon and evening. Some gusts to near gales or a brief period of gales will be possible with the warm front in the morning and early afternoon, however, the increasing over lake stability with the surge of warmer temperatures precludes any early start to the ongoing Gale Warnings. The exception will be across north and north central Lake Huron, where the Gale Warning beings at 8AM EDT due to the frontal boundary stalling out, leading to neutral thermal profiles and high chances to mix down stronger winds aloft. A period of snow is also expected along the warm front.

For the afternoon and evening, the southern Great Lakes will be fully entrenched in the warm sector, supporting a strong stable environment. The strength of the low pressure alone will likely still support elevated gusts around 25 to 30 knots at times. For locations north across north-central and northern Lake Huron, a lull in gust to gales will be possible favored in the late evening and early morning hours Monday as the center of the low arrives overhead. In this window, freezing rain to sleet will be possible across northern Lake Huron, with rain chances holding for locations south.

As the low departs the region late Monday into Tuesday morning, a strong cold front delivering arctic air arrives over the Great Lakes. This will produce a well mixed environment and will bring the better chances for gust to gales for all locations, down through Lake St. Clair and Lake Erie. The intrusion of cold air will also convert any rain showers back over to snow showers. Isolated squalls will be possible Monday afternoon and evening, favored across the southern Lake Huron basin, Lake St. Clair, and Lake Erie. Gale potential lasts through at least Tuesday morning before a brief ridge of high pressure fills in by Tuesday afternoon, ending gales. Gale Warnings are in effect for all marine zones.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MIZ047>049- 053>055.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ361-362.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ363- 441>443-462>464.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-422.

Gale Warning from 8 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Gale Warning from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.

Gale Warning from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.