textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will cross the area this afternoon.

- Summer-like temperatures Memorial Day through Wednesday, with low chances for precipitation. This warm up will be followed by a cool down, with seasonable temperature late week and through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As mid-level troughing continues to sweep through the region today, the ongoing cluster/line of showers and embedded storms will continue to move east across the area. Low level moisture looks to hang around into the overnight hours, but we should start to see these pesky, lingering low clouds scatter out tomorrow morning.

Another weak trough is progged to move east across the Upper Great Lakes Monday through Tuesday. Ahead of and south of this next shortwave, we will see strengthening warm air advection and a significant warm up compared to the weekend. Models are fairly consistent with 925mb temperatures around 18C advecting into the area on Monday, and then further increasing to 20-22C by Tuesday. With good mixing processes at play each day, this warm air advection will help support temperatures warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Memorial Day and then mid to upper 80s for Tuesday. The warmest conditions over the next two days are expected up across the Tri-Cities and portions of the Thumb. There is a very low chance (<15%) that showers or storms develop during the afternoon hours on Memorial Day up across the Tri-Cities and Thumb region. Moisture transport and forcing are more impressive further north.

By Tuesday, a weak cold front extending off of low pressure well northeast of the region slowly drops south across northern Michigan. Mid-level flow is fairly unidirectional along the frontal boundary, so don't expect it to move north/south much during the day. Thus, have maintained a dry forecast. By Wednesday, this front will get start to feel the influence of another shortwave digging south across Ontario into Quebec, and will finally drop south across the area. This will bring the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area. Ahead of the front, temperature on Wednesday likely climb into the 80s for much of the area, but some areas may not warm as much depending on the timing of the backdoor cold front.

High pressure builds in behind the cold front ushering in drier and more seasonable conditions through the end of the week and into next weekend. Daytime highs in the 70s and overnight lows dropping down into the 40s/50s are expected.

MARINE

Light winds continue to prevail across the region. High pressure builds into the area tonight and remains in place through Tuesday, favoring the development of southwest flow across the central Great Lakes. Southwest winds may increase across the Saginaw Bay area on Tuesday, with southwest winds increasing to around 20 knots. By Wednesday, high pressure becomes quite elongated, stretching across the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. A cold front then drops south across the area late Wednesday, with the next chance for showers and thunderstorms. The mid-week cold front is not expected to be particularly strong, so currently not anticipating any significant ramp up of winds behind the front. Another area of high pressure builds into the region behind the front and will lead to varying winds throughout the end of the week. There may be periods with enhanced onshore northeast winds, which may elevate wave activity in nearshore zones at times.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

AVIATION...

Showers and scattered thunderstorms have gradually been approaching the Se Mi terminals from the west. Associated with an upper level short wave forecast to cross Se Mi late this afternoon and evening, the forcing has been a little faster than suggested by earlier model solutions, causing the showers to outpace the elevated instability axis a bit. This has resulted in a slight decrease in the lightning activity upstream. There is still a potential for some instability influx into the far southern portions of southern Michigan in the 21Z to 00Z time frame. This will continue to warrant a chance for thunderstorms across metro Detroit late today. IFR and low end MVFR based stratus has been very prevalent across Se Mi this morning, trapped under a deep low level inversion. The higher instability forecast to lift into the south later today will be driving by a northward advancing warm front. With metro Detroit possibly getting impacted by the warm sector, more variability in ceiling heights are possible this evening. Farther north, MVFR based stratus is likely to hold until late evening when a push of drier air arrives from the west.

D21/DTW Convection...An area of showers will move across the airspace between 20Z and 00Z. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to be embedded within the broader area of showers.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet today.

* Low for thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.