textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Intervals of light accumulating snow continue into tonight ending by around daybreak tomorrow.

- Colder temperatures return Monday and Monday night. Single digit low Tuesday morning and minimum wind chills down to around 0 degrees possible.

- Widespread accumulating snow late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with a broad swath of 1-3 inches possible.

AVIATION

Cold cyclonic flow will continue to reside over the region with a residual surface trough draped through mid MI. Pattern will change little through Monday as a strong low lifting up the east coast is stalling eastward progress of the overall pattern. High pressure will try to inch eastward into the region bringing drier air into the region but subsidence may end up concentrating the low level moisture under the inversion this afternoon keeping a low stratus deck in place. Steep low level lapse rates may end up grinding out flurries through at least the first half of the day as well. Looks like the best chance of MVFR VSBYs with snow will be the next few hours with VFR snow the remainder of the early morning. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest this morning and afternoon before tapering off Monday night.

For DTW...Periods of light snow will persist through the early morning. Mainly VFR snow at this point with a low chance of pockets of passing MVFR showers. MVFR CIGS hold into the day before possibly lifting to VFR late in the day.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceiling at or below 5000 feet today and low for tonight.

* High for precipitation type as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

DISCUSSION...

Weakly forced environment within broad cyclonic vorticity advection across the Great Lakes will continue to support intervals of light to briefly moderate snowfall this afternoon into tonight. The surface low pressure residing over Lake Huron will continue to supply a steady lake enhanced moisture environment in the lower levels under northwest flow. Forecast soundings continue to point towards saturation with respect to ice within the DGZ and periods of vertical motion around this layer. That surface low will gradually begin to breakdown as it shifts southeast towards the mid Atlantic through tonight. As it does this, it will provide another opportunity for locally enhanced convergence resulting in brief periods of higher intensity over parts of southeast Michigan through about 8-9 pm. Temperatures cooling temperatures post sunset will also bring slightly better accumulating snow conditions. Flow becomes more northerly tonight with progression of the low and trough, which will then focus best snowfall towards the Thumb with a modest lake response while best forcing towards the Detroit Metro region weakens. Snow ratios so far have been to around 15:1 and expect similar ratios into tonight with the higher intensity snow. QPF forecast through 7am tomorrow on the order of a few hundredths up to a tenth of an inch brings an additional half inch to possibly 2 inches. The higher end of the spectrum will be focused across the Thumb and the higher elevations of the Irish Hills. Any locations that can experience multiple rounds the brief and higher intensity snow or some overachievement on ratios may be able to exceed 3 inches in total by the end of this event tomorrow morning. Cold advection will also be supporting some of these snow showers through tonight and bring a noticeable drop in temperatures for tomorrow. Chilly start to the morning tomorrow with temperatures in the teens and low 20s with wind chills down into the single digits and afternoon highs look to hold in the 20s, possibly upper teens. The northerly flow holds through much of the day while clouds try to scatter out from west to east towards during the afternoon into evening from the inbound height rises. The cloud layer within forecast soundings is advertised to be in the DGZ, so a few scattered/isolated light snow showers/flurries will be possible with any clouds that hold on through the day. Little, if any, snow accumulation expected. Monday night/Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest morning of the week, though will ultimately depend on the cloud trends. Forecast is for lows in the single digits to lower teens and minimum wind chills in some spots to around 0 degrees.

The next system will arrive later in the day Tuesday and Tuesday night providing the next round of accumulating snowfall. A broad swath of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with this system. The higher amounts remain favored across the northern half of the CWA where the better QPF resides in the model space. Some models still pointing towards very little QPF towards the souther MI border, thus a slight trend down to around a half inch or less is forecast for the southern MI border. There remains some variability in QPF amounts, but look to be on the order of 0.1-0.2". Upcoming hi-res cycles will help hone the QPF details.

Flow becomes northwest behind the Tuesday system bringing potential for lake enhanced scattered snow showers to linger at least through Wednesday morning. Pattern remains active with another chance at accumulating snowfall early Thursday morning to Thursday night. However, this system has a lot of variability with the placement and eventual track of the surface low, so overall confidence remains very low in terms of snow potential. Will need to start seeing more agreement before speaking to any snow amounts or lack thereof.

MARINE...

The low pressure circulation over Lake Huron has transitioned into an inverted trough axis as low pressure rapidly strengthens over the Atlantic Coast. Remnants of this trough axis will travel south across Lake Huron this evening, reaching Lake Erie by Monday morning and leading to a final uptick in snow shower potential along the convergence axis. Flow fully transitions to the northwest Monday as the pressure gradient fills in between the coastal low and building high pressure across the Plains and Ontario. Sustained northerly flow of 25 to 30 knots amidst the colder airmass aloft leads to heavy freezing spray north of Sturgeon Point Monday. Ice cover south of this region however precludes the issuance of any nearshore headlines, even as gusts approach 30 knots. High pressure leads to a brief reprieve in marine conditions and shift to southwest winds Monday night-Tuesday before a clipper system approaches Tuesday night. Strong low level jet ranging from 40 knots near Mackinac to 60 knots over Lake Erie ramps up wind gusts Tuesday night. Stability will be the main factor controlling gust potential, and at this point looks to cap gusts below 35 knots.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.