textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable conditions will exist today.

- Warming trend tomorrow with dry conditions during the day.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow night into Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low in ceilings below 5000 ft through 17z today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

High degree of stability expected today as surface high pressure and mid/upper ridge move across the central Great Lakes. The surface high pressure sliding across Ontario will veer the early morning northeast winds towards the east this afternoon. This will usher in more dry lower level air that should gradually break up the lingering low clouds across much of southeast Michigan this morning. The east winds will work against the therm ridge and limit a greater warm air advection response this afternoon, but some airmass moderation should occur with the anticipation of more sunshine. Expecting highs today for inland areas to be in the low to mid 60s. Lakeshore zones will be notably cooler given that east flow.

Dry and stable conditions expected to hold through tomorrow. Lower level flow turns south to southeast downstream of a Midwest trough and surface low moving across Iowa tomorrow afternoon. This will allow for better warm air advection into Michigan and bring daytime high temperatures mostly in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s with a few mid 70s possible towards the southern border. There will be increasing coverage of clouds through the afternoon downstream of the low pressure system.

Aforementioned low pressure system will progress northeastward and move over Lake Superior by early Tuesday morning. This system will drive a cold front through Michigan Monday night with corridor of deeper moisture and higher thetae ahead of it. Severe weather likely will develop upstream across the mid Mississippi Valley into IL and portions of IN. Frontal forcing with available moisture will likely sustain some convective activity into southeast Michigan late Monday night into Tuesday. Given the arrival at the diurnal minimum, models solution are limited with the amount of instability available when activity arrives locally. As of now, still anticipating a high chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, but probability for severe weather remains low. Latest guidance has trended down slightly for the QPF with most of the area sitting in the 0.25-0.50" range for the overnight period supported by PWATs that increase to 1.25 inches or more.

Upper level troughing carrying a couple embedded shortwaves will swing across the Great Lakes during the mid to late week period. At the surface will be a high pressure that creeps out of south central Canada and into the Great Lakes that will draw in drier air into the region with a persistent north-northwest flow. Thus, the overall pattern only offers low chances (<20%) of precipitation during this period with mostly dry conditions expected. This northerly flow will also lead to a stretch of cooler temperatures that will see daily high temperatures in the 50s and a couple nights late in the week down to around the mid 30s.

MARINE...

High pressure holds over the region through early Monday maintaining benign marine conditions. Southeasterly winds strength latter half of Monday as the next low lifts out of the central Plains towards the northern Great Lakes. While a 45-60kt LLJ develops over the central Great Lakes Monday night, accompanying warm advection should promote a stable overlake thermal profile limiting mixing potential. Currently local probabilistic guidance is advertising a ~30% chance to reach 34kts. Arrival of showers and storms late night-early Tuesday does offer potential for profiles to turn more neutral, however this set-up would warrant short-fused special marine warnings over gale headlines. System's cold front crosses daytime Tuesday ending storm chances as well as flipping winds to the northwest. Rapidly weakening pressure gradient on the backedge of the low keeps these winds under 30kts.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.