textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- More sunshine tomorrow with highs in the 80s.

- The next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Wednesday afternoon (north of M-59). Better coverage is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather is expected to start the weekend.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

A much drier airmass is in place over southeast Michigan today, as the 12z DTX sounding checked in with a PW value of 0.72 inches and 28 C dew point depression at 700 MB. The 850-700 MB Theta-E trough will mostly hold in place through Wednesday morning, as southeast Michigan lies in between the moisture axis from the advancing cold front to the west and the large upper-level low/Atlantic moisture over southeastern United States. Ultimately, the moisture axis with the cold front will swing through Wednesday night into Thursday as broad trough axis over the Northern Plains swings through the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday. Timing, of course, plays a key role in how much instability/CAPE will be in place to support possible thunderstorms. At this point, CAPE/bulk shear profiles are not overly impressive and remain on the lower side, so expecting mainly non-severe storms with perhaps a marginal risk at best if optimal timing works out. Regardless, euro ensembles still show high probability (~70 percent) of a tenth of an inch of more of qpf in the Wednesday evening through Thursday evening time frame as the front slowly tracks from northwest to southeast. Even if the surface front slips just south of the Michigan border by Friday morning, a stronger shortwave lagging behind could still be sufficient to trigger additional showers on Friday south of M-59. Both 12z Canadian and Euro are showing similar solutions with this shortwave.

Not much to note with respect to temperatures, as highs reach into the 80s each day through the weekend, with mins mainly in the upper 50s to mid 60s (outside of tonight when mins fall into the 50s).

MARINE...

High pressure is firmly established across the central Great Lakes today offering dry weather and light winds. Winds decrease further tonight while backing south-southwesterly by Tuesday as the center of the surface ridge slides across Lake Erie into Appalachia. A weak cold front will move in from the west and briefly stall out over Lake Huron Wednesday. This provides the first opportunity for showers and a few thunderstorms for the latter half of the week. Several disturbances are expected to ripple through atop the boundary, preserving rain/storm chances through Thursday as the front resumes forward progress toward the southern waterways. The pressure gradient response appears minor through this period, ensuring no long-fused headlines before the end of the week. Drier weather may briefly return Friday and/or Saturday, but the front will stall out again in the vicinity, keeping low chances for thunder nearby.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.