textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for some freezing fog development tonight into Sunday morning.

- Above normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

- Next chance of precipitation comes Tuesday night through Wednesday and currently looks like an all rain event.

DISCUSSION

Mid February warm up well underway with a second 40 degree day in a row for many locations. DTW already hit 46 this afternoon with 40s as far north as PHN (41) and OZW (43) by 2pm. North of M59, which is roughly where a stalled surface boundary is washing out, slight northerly component to the wind is holding temps down in the low to mid 30s. Dewpoints are also on the rise due to warm air advection and snow melt releasing moisture into the boundary layer. We saw a short period of dense fog up around MBS this morning and indications are for another round of fog developing tonight with similar conditions again tonight. Previous forecast included period of possible freezing fog as temps drop into the mid-upper 20s tonight. See no reason to deviate from this forecast and will handle any denser areas of fog as it develops.

Warm air will stick around through the middle of the work week as the polar jet remains displaced well to the north and a flattened ridge over the Plains keeps a zonal feed of mild air into the Great Lakes. Steady wave train through the northern stream of the jet over Canada will be the force keeping the ridge flattened over the Plains early in the week. It will also result in a dry front or two dropping through the area as southern extensions of the trough pass over. This will mainly help keep temps from steadily climbing through the early week but will also bring some periods of high cloud at times. 850mb temps will be steady in the 2 to 4C range Sunday through Tuesday so expecting highs around 45 to 50F through this period.

Next chance of precipitation still looks to arrive Tuesday night as warm advection and isentropic ascent along a developing warm front moves into lower MI. The parent surface low and better forcing is well to the west over the Dakotas Tuesday night so initially just dealing with light precip most likely. Left exit region of the southern stream jet max and leading area of deformation then moves in around 12Z Wednesday with some hints of a secondary low developing ahead of the parent low and lifting through the region during the day leading to steadier and more widespread precipitation. Isentropic bands like this can result in mix precip events this time of year due to colder air locked in at the surface under the frontal slope, but a trend the last few runs has been farther north with the front and thus warmer air in SE MI. Temps Tuesday night are now mainly all above freezing with highs Wednesday in the upper 50s to low 60s near the Ohio border. This scenario would lead to an all rain event locally, with mixed precip pushed north of the CWA. There will be additional chances for precipitation including some wintry weather Thursday night into Friday night as a another strong wave and surface low moves through the region.

MARINE

A weak pressure pattern persists through Sunday with light and variable wind this afternoon organizing out of the south/southeast by Sunday morning as a weak trough moves into the region. A second slightly stronger trough arrives on Monday with south wind increasing to around 10 to 15 kt. A ridge of high pressure maintains benign conditions through Tuesday before an active pattern sets up for the middle and late week. A frontal boundary will stall in the vicinity of the Great Lakes with multiple low pressure systems bringing rain, snow, wintry mix, and potential for gusty winds from Wednesday into next weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

AVIATION...

Weak and variable flow regime is in place over Southeast Michigan today and tonight as weak surface ridge axis will transition into a weak surface col. Have seen a slow lifting of ceilings and visibility improvements at KMBS early today. After the first hour of the taf period , VFR conditions are expected at all sites this afternoon and evening. Weak easterly flow tonight with boundary layer moisture from snow melt brings the potential for fog Sunday morning. Split southern stream jet axis in vicinity of far southern Lower Michigan does complicate the setup with the potential for high cloud cirrus. Per NAM, condensation pressure deficits, greatest signal for LIFR fog appears it may be at KMBS again tonight, however, signal out of the RGEM suggests areas downwind of a very cold and ice covered Lake Erie could observe dense fog at daybreak.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceiling at or below 5000 feet late tonight into Sunday morning.

* Low for cig/vsby below 200ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight and Sunday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.