textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple days.

- Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Upper-level northwest confluent flow will support subsidence and a drying trend through tomorrow. Low clouds should dissipate by early evening, and it appears that surface dew pts will lower enough to help mitigate fog potential tonight. An upper-level ridge axis extending north into central Canada will fold over and arrive over the central Great Lakes Thursday evening into Thursday night.

The forecast then gets complicated Friday and into the Weekend. There is a series over upper-level disturbances that will consolidate over the Northern Plains. How much amplification takes place varies amongst the medium-range models. Deeper and faster amplification would support a deepening 500 MB trough/low developing over Iowa/southern Minnesota on Friday and diving southeast Friday night, shifting the bulk of showers into the Western Ohio Valley. Southeast Michigan has better shot at precipitation with the weak cold front dropping south from the northern Great Lakes during the second half of the weekend. Either way, NBM pops are currently running around 30-50 percent. Modest instability supports, at best, just a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Temperatures through forecast period look to remain around normal, not deviating much more than +/- 5 degrees. Friday looks to feature the warmest max temperatures, per Euro ensembles, reaching the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

MARINE

There will be continued gusty conditions for the rest of the evening into Wednesday, which will maintain the issued Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazard Statements across Lake Huron. Winds of up to 25 kt are expected. These winds will calm down by Thursday into the end of the week as high pressure enters the region. Dry conditions are expected until we see our next chance of showers heading into this weekend as a cold front moves into the Great Lakes.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

AVIATION...

Post frontal MVFR cloud shield - with some embedded drizzle and sprinkles - is slowly showing signs of thinning. However, upstream near surface drying is lagging some - thus slowing the dissipation process. Along the southern periphery over the Detroit airspace, continued cumulus formation within the moisture rich boundary layer will supplement the pre-existing clouds. The presence of the clouds has discouraged mixing north of Detroit, and gusts to 20-kts are now just emerging along the cloud edge. Looking for the main cloud field to continue shrinking from the edges, then eventually within the developing leads - but still has several hours to go. The rest of the forecast period will be rather quiet. A modest north flow with daytime gusts to 20-kts is expected again on Wednesday.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms through Wednesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings 5000 feet or less this afternoon. Low by this evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ049-055- 063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.