textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow returns for the end of the workweek, with accumulations generally 1-3 inches. The bulk of the snow will fall late Friday morning.

- Temperatures reach or exceed freezing on Friday; however, strong northwest winds at the end of the day (gusting 30-40 MPH) will drive much colder air back into southeast Michigan.

- Wind chills of 10 to 15 degrees below zero are likely Saturday morning before a modest warming trend occurs over the weekend.

AVIATION

High pressure extending from the Midwest into Lower Mi slides into Ontario and the Ohio valley tonight. This results in cloud layer wind backing toward the west which brings MVFR stratus from the Lake Michigan shoreline into SE Mi. There are a few cloud patches already just west of the terminal corridor set to first affect the MBS to FNT area at forecast issuance while the larger cloud mass advances eastward for the late night period. A corridor of dry air along the MS valley could provide some temporary clearing Thursday morning but largely fills in with additional IFR/MVFR clouds from farther west. These clouds precede the next low pressure system that brings a weakening initial round of light snow capable of spotty MVFR visibility accompanied by SW wind increasing to 20 kt gusts Thursday afternoon into the evening.

For DTW... Evening clear sky transitions back to MVFR clouds toward midnight and lasting through Thursday morning. The initial round of light snow shows signs of weakening with approach to DTW Thursday afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening, moderate late tonight, then high Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

DISCUSSION...

Amplified and energetic longwave pattern over the conus will result in notable changes to the forecast though the upcoming week. We'll start off with a continuation of the stretch of below normal temperatures as we remain engulfed within the persistent deep trough before residing near the baroclinic zone as several shortwaves embedded in the northwesterly flow pass over the region the end of the week into the weekend. We'll finally emerging on the warmer side (meaning back to near normal temps) for a change as the strong ridging to the west finally makes it's way east across the Plains over the Great Lakes next week.

The rest of today and tonight we still have high pressure at the surface with shortwave ridge aloft sliding over the region. This has lead to varying degrees of cloud cover as dry air and subsidence has attempted to clear out the clouds across our east while our western counties remain locked under stratus with the lake moisture trapped under the strengthening inversion. Current cloud trends will carry through this evening before winds turn more southwesterly which will push the stratus eastward across the area tonight. These clouds and a generally warming column will keep lows up around 10F tonight.

Thursday and Friday will feature several shortwave features advancing SE through the northwesterly flow for the end of the week. Overall the forecast for this period hasn't changed much with light snow chances beginning Thursday afternoon as the isentropic band arrives along with one or more weakening vort maxes near the left exit region of the approaching 150 knot jet max. Column will be saturating from the top down through the day Thursday with most soundings showing a period of light snow from 18-00Z occuring as ribbon of fgen passes over with the lead arc of vorticity. Thermal profile is not great for snow accumulation with poor lapse rates up through 7kft and an elevated DGZ around 8-11kft. Questions of how long the DGZ can even stay saturated into the evening with models stripping out the moisture in between mid level features so could even see a period of light freezing drizzle if small flakes don't continue. Additional arcs of vorticity could also be poorly resolved which could keep grinding out light snow through the evening and into the overnight. Will keep a higher pop, lower QPF/snowfall forecast for the period with a few tenths of snow possible. More notable wave passes over the region from around 09-15Z which has deeper saturation and better lapse rates in the DGZ with specific humidities over 2 g/kg. Expect the bulk of the accumulation to occur in this window where 1-2 inches is forecast. All in all with the leading light snow and potential for additional mid level energy carrying into the evening with a few more tenths, we could see 1-3 inches across the area. The probability space has held firm for a few runs now with area wide average of 70-90% chance of receiving 1 inch and 20-30% chance of 2 inches supporting the 1-3 inch forecast incorporating the extra tenths on the tails of the event.

The arctic cold front will drop through the area Friday afternoon with a strong northerly winds which could gust to 30 to 40 mph in the afternoon into the evening. This will help usher in the next thermal bubble of 850mb temps of -20 to -25C across the area with the coldest of the airmass holding to the east over southern Ontario. Friday night lows will fall to below zero for many locations with the still elevated winds creating wind chills of -10 to -20F into Saturday morning, which will only improve to around 0F Saturday as highs struggle to get into the mid teens. Cold air lingers through Saturday night with lows again falling to around 0F. Temps then slowly climb Sunday through Wednesday with much of next week having highs back near or above freezing.

MARINE...

Low pressure tracks across Canada into Hudson Bay through the back half of the work week. The lead wave of this system triggers light snow showers across the Great Lakes Thursday, with the more impactful part of this system arriving Friday. This occurs as a strong arctic front drops across Lower Michigan. Additional snow is anticipated, while a constricted gradient and strong cold advection introduce gusty northerly winds to the area centered around Friday night. Well-mixed profiles and low level jet winds of 40-45 knots lead to efficient momentum transport and surface wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots. This has prompted a Gale Watch Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. The strong northerly flow will also generate heavy freezing spray across ice-free portions of Lake Huron, where a Heavy Freezing Spray Watch was also issued. High pressure ridging then builds in for the weekend, alleviating wind and wave concerns.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Heavy Freezing Spray Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LHZ361>363-462.

Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.