textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued lake effect snow showers and flurries this morning bringing light accumulations.

- Below normal temperatures persist through most of the week.

- Next likely chance for accumulating snow arrives Thursday night through Friday.

- Arctic air returns this weekend.

AVIATION

Sufficient moisture (dew pts in the lower 20s) and light westerly flow still allowing for flurries across southeast Michigan. Secondary cold front dropping south from northern Lower Michigan early this morning will help focus flurry/light snow shower activity, resulting in cigs and visibilities dropping into MVFR/borderline IFR. The front should clear the state by early this afternoon, with light northwest winds following the passage leading to drier air moving in. This is expected to produce clearing late today into this evening, with clear/mostly clear skies lasting through the night.

For DTW...The secondary cold front will pass across metro around 15Z. Pooling of low level moisture along the boundary will warrant some flurries or light snow showers through early to mid afternoon before the push of drier air arrives.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings below 5000 feet into the afternoon, then low.

* High for ptype as snow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026

DISCUSSION...

Robust lake effect response has maintained low level moisture and light snow/flurries this morning along a lead cold front that will continue through the remainder of the early morning hours. The progression of the shortwave across the northern Great Lakes will send a trailing a secondary cold front through southeast Michigan through the mid-late morning hours bringing another chance for an uptick in light snow showers and flurries. Given the poor handling of ongoing lake effect activity, will add back in PoPs (10-20%) for scattered light snow showers and flurries into the early afternoon. Highest PoPs around 12Z will be focused north of I-69 near the front and then focus south of I-69 from 14- 15Z into the early afternoon. Model soundings continue to highlight saturation within the DGZ within a weakly forced environment along the front. Dry air is expected to follow behind the front, which will help lower moisture depth as omega also erodes with time today. Any overachievement in ratios/QPF through the morning could result in a few tenths of snow accumulation.

The dry air and arrival of the eastern extension of surface high over the Upper Midwest should result in some clearing into tonight. Hi-res forecast soundings keep some lingering saturation with respect to ice within the DGZ this evening. Thus, isolated flurry activity could linger into the evening with any clouds. Confidence is too low to add mention in the forecast past 21Z. If it did occur, would only expect a dusting if any accumulation at all. Any clearing should aide in dropping low temperatures tonight into Wednesday morning down into the single digits with wind chills of around zero to few degrees below.

Surface high pressure slides through the state on Wednesday bringing a break in precipitation given no real ascent over the area along with a very dry airmass. Temperatures around -10C at 850mb highlight the continued below normal stretch of temperatures into mid-week. Daytime highs for Wednesday are forecast to be around 20 degrees. Dry conditions hold into Wednesday night and Thursday morning as surface flow backs to the west and eventually southwest by late Thursday morning. Another cold start to Thursday morning with low temperatures into the single digits.

A clipper system will round the western CONUS ridge ahead of a deeper low pressure emerging off Hudson Bay Thursday night/Friday morning. Improving moisture quality (850-700mb specific humidity of 2+ g/kg) supplied by the increasing southwest flow will feed the lead isentropic ascent resulting in widespread light snowfall spreading across southeast Michigan from the northwest. Better accumulation potential currently lands after 06Z Friday morning and through the rest of the morning. Ensemble space continues to support a good shot of at least an inch for much of southeast Michigan. The warm advection does bring potential to see daytime highs towards into the low 30s for Friday before arctic air again plunges into the region behind the wave. Over the weekend, expect forecast lows each morning down towards zero with sub zero wind chills and daytime highs topping out in the teens.

MARINE...

Moderate northwesterly winds continue through today as colder air follows yesterday's clipper. Strongest winds remain over the northern and central portions of Lake Huron, given the fetch, where winds of 15-20kts are most likely though gusts in the 20-25kt range are possible over the north-central waters- which also would support some areas of freezing spray in ice-free waters. High pressure dropping out of Canada then expands over the region through midweek promoting drier weather and lighter (<15kt) winds. Another clipper swinging out of northern Ontario is expected to draw an arctic cold front over the central Great Lakes late Friday-Saturday. Strong trailing cold advection looks to offer the next shot at gales and heavy freezing spray (for whatever ice-free waters are still there by that point) over Lake Huron.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.