textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Typical summer day today with highs in the mid 80s before above normal temperatures in the upper 80s return Wednesday into Thursday.

- Next chances for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday. Accompanying humid airmass will support a threat for locally heavy rainfall with any storm.

- Unsettled weather could linger late week with temperatures returning near normal.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Surface high pressure is firmly in place across lower MI today setting a fairly typical summer day locally. Mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies allow temperatures to nudge a couple degrees warmer from yesterday with highs topping out in the mid 80s under only light NNE winds. Center of this high eventually drifts directly over SE MI tonight turning winds calm as diurnal cloud dissipates. With modest near surface moisture still in place (Td in the lower 60s), some areas of fog are possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning before quickly burning off with sunrise.

Warming trend continues Wednesday as central CONUS upper ridging is flattened into the Great Lakes by a trough ejecting out of the northern Rockies. Deeper layer, albeit light, southwest flow draws 16-17C 850mb temps over SE MI supporting highs in the upper 80s. Height falls tied to this trough work into the area by Thursday morning however with slow progression of the attendant cold front over the northern Lake Michigan, rain chances for the bulk of the area (essentially outside the Saginaw Valley/Thumb) don't arrive until afternoon. As such, these southern areas will see longer duration of solar insolation allowing highs to again reach the upper 80s. Earlier arrival of cloud/showers in the north look to cap temps more towards the lower to mid 80s. Scattered thundestorms within the broader shower activity is probable, especially in the south given the PM arrival, with long range models suggesting several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE available. Any severe potential however looking to be hamstrung by mediocre wind profiles with soundings only advertising ~25kts of largely unidirectional shear. Environment will be similar to this past Sunday's wrt to localized heavy rainfall/flooding threats as PW returns to around 1.75" in addition to warm cloud depths in excess of 10kft and storm motions only around 20kts.

Surface cold front eventually crosses the area Friday ending the heaviest rain chances. That said, weak post frontal northerly winds could be slow to clear out humidity allowing persistent light showers to linger for at least part of the day. To what degree drier weather returns later Friday into Saturday also is dependent on a secondary shortwave embedded within the zonal flow across the central CONUS. Still some disagreements in longer range model solutions in the exact track, though a more northerly outcome would keep wetter conditions around into the first part of the weekend.

MARINE...

High pressure to hold across the Great Lakes today which will support light winds. This system will wash out across the Appalachia region during the midweek period, but the overall pressure gradient will remain weak over the Great Lakes, maintaining lighter wind speeds. A low pressure system and cold front will move through The region Thursday, bringing the next chance for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.