textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for a few showers to develop this afternoon.

- A cooler air mass settles over the area tonight through Monday night. Tonight will feature to coolest night, with overnight lows falling into the 40s.

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and lingers into late week. Tuesday will feature a warmer more humid day helping to set the stage for thundestorms chances as a slow moving front arrives.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 431 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

DISCUSSION...

A cold front continues to drop south across the area early this morning. This will help gradually diminish the warmer/muggy air mass across the region, with breezy west to northwest winds ushering in lower dewpoints this afternoon. As the front moves through it is not out of the question that a few spotty showers develop. However, better lift and upper-level forcing arrives later this afternoon when the main upper-level wave tracks through the region. Maintained chance PoPs for this afternoon and evening as an area of frontogenesis between roughly 800-700 mb sharpens upon the arrival of the upper level wave and increasing dCVA. Not expecting any significant rainfall with any shower activity that develops this afternoon.

Tonight through Monday night, high pressure takes over across the region and upper-level ridging builds back into the region. This pattern will bring a taste of fall to the region. As a much drier air mass moves overhead tonight, the combination of clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop well into the 40s. Given the crisp, cool night expected, we will likely see some patchy fog develop in/around lakes and rivers. Highs on Monday are likely to top out around 70 with light winds and mostly clear skies. Cloud cover increases Monday night as high pressure departs to our east and the leading edge of warm air advection begins to move in from the west ahead of the next system expected to impact the region.

This system, while the strong surface low is progged to remain well north of the region, will bring impacts starting on Tuesday as strong warm air and moisture advection return to the region. Highs are forecast to climb back up into the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70. This round of muggy conditions will be brief as a slow moving cold front drops south across the area late Tuesday. Flow along this frontal boundary becomes increasingly unidirectional and zonal, which will slow the southward progression of the front through mid to late week. The question remains where the front is when it stalls out. Is it over southeast Michigan or south of the state line. Models are also trying to bring another shortwave in from the west, which would bring another focus for showers and thunderstorms late next week. There are plenty of details that will be refined as we get closer, but Tuesday through late next week currently feature numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms, including the potential for training precipitation.

MARINE...

A backdoor cold front is currently dropping south across the area this morning, resulting in a brief uptick in north-northeast winds to around 15-20 knots. This uptick in the winds is expected to be shortlived this morning. However, as the day progresses cooler air works into the region from the northwest, favoring an uptick in west to northwest winds. West winds increase to 25-30 knots this afternoon, gradually becoming northwest through the evening. Across the northern-third of Lake Huron, probabilistic data do not show much of a signal for gales this afternoon and into tonight. Thus, have kept forecast winds capped at around 30 knots. Small craft advisories have been issued for all nearshore waters later this afternoon through tonight for a combination of wind gusts in excess of 25 knots and/or 3+ foot waves.

High pressure quickly builds into the region Monday, allowing northwest winds to relax in/around daybreak. Attention then turns to a robust surface low progged to track across the Canadian Prairies Monday into Tuesday, and eventually reaching the Hudson Bay region by Tuesday night/Wednesday. Surface wind fields respond to both the pressure falls north of the region and the increasing surface pressure gradient arriving late Monday through Tuesday. Will need to keep a close eye on the forecast for Monday night through Tuesday as south to southwest gales are looking more likely. There remains some disagreement amongst the guidance regarding what the high-end potential of wind speeds look like. However, blended ensemble guidance show a strong signal for 35-40 kt gales peaking Tuesday morning over the open water of Lake Huron. These strong south winds will also usher back in better fuel for thunderstorm activity and heavy rain.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday morning for MIZ049.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Monday for LHZ441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Monday for LEZ444.