textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Potentially wet week ahead with several chances for rain in the forecast.

- There is a slight chance for a couple periods of freezing rain Tuesday morning and Tuesday night.

- Warming trend this week with temperatures in the 40s on Tuesday and Wednesday before 50s and 60s arrive Thursday through the weekend.

AVIATION

Weak surface ridging maintains VFR overnight while moisture pools along a warm front across the Ohio Valley. This moisture will lift northward Tuesday morning, reaching the Detroit terminals in the 12 to 15z time frame and expanding up to the I-69 corridor and briefly toward the MBS vicinity in the afternoon. Upstream observations and model guidance indicate high probability for MVFR ceilings for most of the area and moderate confidence in IFR across Metro Detroit. Pockets of light drizzle/mist remain a possibility mainly near Detroit as well but are not in the TAFs due to low confidence on occurrence or aviation impact. If any precip occurs with the initial surge of moisture during the morning, freezing drizzle would be possible before temps rise above freezing. Light wind through the day Tuesday with another area of high pressure easing in from the west by the evening. This will introduce drier air, but ceilings may linger across the southeast into early Wednesday morning.

For DTW...Approximately 10% probability for freezing drizzle exists between 11 and 16z. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings become likely by mid morning and persist into Tuesday night. Window for IFR is centered between 18 and 00z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet after 12z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

Western periphery of a strong high pressure system centered over New England has supported cloudless skies across southern Michigan as return flow gradually starts to advect in warmer temperatures derived from the Ohio Valley. This has allowed temperatures to peak in the low to mid-30s which is still below normal, however, this will be the start of progressively warmer temperatures that continue through the week.

For tonight and overnight, mainly dry conditions are expected to persist for most of SE MI given the lack of forcing under zonal flow aloft. The possible exception will be across the MI/OH border up through the northern Metro region as low level moisture gradually fills in across southern Michigan under weak isentropic ascent. Modeled soundings still do not fully saturate the shallow boundary layer thus leading to low confidence for any precipitation, however, there is some concern that south-southeast flow could pull in some shallow moisture off of Lake Erie. If this were to materialize, soundings do highlight freezing mist/freezing drizzle as the main p-type give surface temperatures below freezing and a 4kft wedge of temperatures above freezing aloft with a MaxT of 2.6C, where the bulk of the low-level saturation exists. Given this, will maintain a 15% chance for freezing drizzle through the mid to late morning hours, with trace amounts of ice accumulation possible.

Temperatures rise above freezing by the afternoon, ending all freezing drizzle concerns. Low-end chances (20-30%) for a rain shower or two will hold through the remainder of the day favored I-69 south given continued advancement of the low-level moisture and position of the elevated frontal boundary. Highs peak in the 40s.

Zonal mid-level flow holds through Wednesday as high pressure briefly fills back in across the state. This bring dry conditions through at least the first half of the day while return flow from the quick moving system ushers in warmer temperatures, pushing highs in the mid to upper 40s, possible low 50s through the interior of the cwa. This will also act to push low-level moisture back through southern Michigan, bringing low-end chances for rain showers. Increasing confidence for rain enters Thursday through Friday morning as a slow-moving mid-level wave travels through the Central Plains and into the southern Great Lakes. This wave will induce a weak low pressure system and will drive the surface frontal boundary into southern Michigan, bringing likely rain chances. A more active period of weather continues as a secondary stronger wave from the Four Corners progresses towards the Great Lakes over the weekend, possibly phasing with a secondary northern stream wave. This will work to bring like the warmest temperatures of the week with 850mb temperatures aoa 10C and surface temperatures aoa 60 degrees. Trailing the warmer weather will be the arrival of the wave and low, bringing rain and thunderstorm chances Saturday.

MARINE...

High pressure over the Northeast governs conditions across the central Great Lakes this evening. This provides modest southerly flow over Lake Huron, but weaker easterly winds across the southern waterways. Winds broadly diminish late tonight into Tuesday while an area of troughing extends eastward through the Ohio Valley. Potential exists for a bit of freezing drizzle across parts of Lake St. Clair and western Erie early Tuesday morning before changing over to liquid rain midday. Split-flow eventually arises over the region Tuesday leading to light and variable winds by Tuesday evening and through the overnight hours. Dry weather and light winds return Wednesday morning as high pressure briefly spills across Lower Michigan. Easterly winds rise by Thursday as a rain producing warm low lifts into the south while Canadian high pressure builds into James Bay. The northern half of Lake Huron resides within the strongest pressure gradient with sustained winds in excess of 20 knots, but gust delta is narrow given increasing low-level stability.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.