textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance for light freezing rain and sleet tonight, mainly north of the Interstate 69 corridor.

- Temperatures will warm to near 40 Tuesday, then colder temperatures and dry weather will prevail through the end of the week.

AVIATION

Mid level cloud has begun to stream into SE MI early this morning associated with developing low pressure over the upper Midwest. This cloud increases in thickness over the course of the day with lower level clouds (5-6kft) beginning to reach the area mid to late morning. This lower cloud is tied to a developing warm front that gradually lifts through the terminal corridor over the course of the afternoon. Lingering influence of the surface high now over the eastern Great Lakes helps to keeps southeasterly winds light through the day- holding below 10kts.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

DISCUSSION...

It will be yet another cold start to the day as early morning temps will primarily be in the single digits across Se Mi. The eastward departure of a low level anticyclone to the east will open the door to southerly flow today, which will begin a period of warm air advection into Se Mi. Increasing mid/high clouds during the course of the afternoon and a residual southeasterly component to the surface winds will hold high temps in the 20s across the forecast area.

A fast moving mid level short wave impulse tracking across the northern plains and into the western Great Lakes tonight and the ageostrophic response within the exit region of an inbound upper jet streak will drive a broad region of good system relative isentropic ascent across Lower Mi tonight. The stronger and more persistent ascent is forecast across northern Michigan. Limited moisture depth and a shorter period of ascent will support a dry forecast across the southern half of the forecast tonight. Ensemble members diverge as to whether or not the ascent will be enough to generate precip across the northern half of the forecast area. While the 00Z NAM and Canadian are suggestive of high pops and relatively low QPF, several hi res solution remain dry. In light of the strength of the mid level warm air advection, chance type pops remain justified. Probabilistic guidance is a bit higher across the thumb, warranting high chance to likely pops in this area. The nose of a 50-60 knot 925mb jet will lift into Srn Lower MI tonight, driving a respectable elevated warm layer across the forecast area. Given the sub freezing boundary layer, any precip that falls will be sleet or freezing rain. Given the uncertainty in precip chances, there is not enough confidence to warrant any headline issuance at this time.

The aforementioned short wave feature is forecast to eventually phase with a developing closed mid level low rotating from northern Ontario into eastern Ontario/Quebec Tuesday into Tuesday night. Associated sfc low will track north of Georgian Bay Tuesday, driving a cold front across Se Mi Tuesday morning. With the stronger push of post frontal cold air lagging the sfc front, diurnal mixing will help boost Tuesday highs into the upper 30s to possibly low 40s. Cold air advection will then increase markedly late Tues afternoon/evening within increasing northwest flow. This will bring seasonally cold conditions back to the forecast area with 850mb temps falling to -10 to -11c Wed morning. While conditions will not be as cold as in recent weeks, high temps through the rest of the work week will fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s with nighttime lows mainly in the teens. Sfc high pressure expanding into the area by Thursday will sustain dry conditions through the end of the week.

MARINE...

Southerly gradient strengthens today in advance of the next low to impact the Great Lakes early this week. The system's warm front draws an initial wave of snow across Lake Huron tonight through mid day Tuesday. This is quickly followed by a cold front that sweeps west to east across the region Tuesday afternoon. Immediate wind shift to the northwest is expected with the fropa, followed by a ramp up in wind gusts as cold advection ensues. Wind gusts generally expected to be in the 30-35 knot range Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning across northern Lake Huron, although confidence falls just short of Gale Watch thresholds (40-50%). With upstream portions of Lake Superior remaining largely ice-free, lake effect snow bands bring periods of snow to Lake Huron through the mid-week period. High pressure then fills in late week to support drier conditions and relaxing wind/wave trends.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.