textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with near-normal, pleasant temperatures returns for Thursday and Friday.

- Mainly dry weather continues through the weekend, accompanied by slightly above-normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Quiet weather expected through the weekend as high pressure settles over the region. Upper level long wave flow will be low amplitude and progressive with the bulk of the flow locked over southern Canada as the southern conus ridge continues to hold. Main surface baroclinic zone remains draped along the Ohio Valley north of the ridge which will keep the bulk of the precip south of the region. incoming mid level shortwave will be positively tilted which will delay forcing the remnant thermal trough out of the region so expect a slowly modifying airmass today through Saturday. Once the mid level trough axis passes east Saturday, warmer southerly flow will return to the region providing a return to the lower 80s briefly ahead of a cold front.

The front will sweep through the region late Saturday evening and looks to be free of precip as the model sounding show a great deal of dry air through the column to contend with and the forcing will be well to the north over Ontario. The one thing to watch for will be a plume of moisture overriding the boundary to the south Saturday which will try to reach into far southern MI. Most likely, this will be held to the south as the front compresses the ridging and pushes it east making that region unfavorable to northward advancements of the moisture plume, but a slower front may allow some moisture to reach a little farther north. Next chance of showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday night as a more amplified trough passes over the region.

MARINE

Moderate northwesterly flow in place today following yesterday's cold front. Gusts across the northern portions of Lake Huron expected to peak firmly below 30kts, likely closer to 25kts, as the core of cool advection holds over northern Ontario. Winds steadily being weakening this evening as high pressure builds over the central Great Lakes. Said high then drifts overhead through Friday night leading to benign marine conditions to close the work week. Active pattern returns late this weekend as low pressure lifting through the northern Great Lakes drags a cold front into the area before it looks to stall over Lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 PM EDT Wed Sep 9 2026

AVIATION...

Elevated near surface moisture exists ahead of a weak frontal boundary early this morning. This environment may support some degree of fog and/or very low stratus through daybreak, with seemingly slightly greater potential at FNT/PTK. Forecast will continue to acknowledge this potential, with further downward revision possible locally /into IFR or LIFR/ should observational trends lend greater confidence in occurrence. Any lower restriction will quickly mix out mid morning with daytime heating, leaving prevailing VFR for Thursday as some thicker high cloud works into the region. Modest winds from the west to southwest overnight ahead of the front, shifting to northwest and remain weak with the frontal passage Thursday morning.

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through Thursday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through Thursday morning.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.