textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic airmass keeps conditions cold today with wind chills to around 0 degrees this morning for most the area.

- Scattered light lake effect snow showers and flurries continue today.

- Warming trend mid to late week with a couple of chances for light precipitation.

AVIATION

Modest gusts persist today, but continue a declining trend into the 20-25 knot range. Drier conditions expected at the terminals through the morning hours until another round of scattered lake effect snow showers develop off Lake Michigan. Moisture depths are rather shallow, but meager instability will support ascent for convective structure. Intersection with the TAF sites carries low confidence until stabilization arrives this evening. Another round of light snow with a clipper system should hold off overnight, keeping conditions dry until Wednesday morning. MVFR visibilities favored with light snowfall Wednesday morning. Nocturnal winds decrease further, backing from west to south.

For DTW...Westerly gusts hold below 25 knots for most of the day and gradually decrease. Recovery below crosswind exceedence expected. A few light lake effect snow showers are possible this afternoon. Low probability for MVFR or IFR visibility reductions. A clipper brings another round of light MVFR to briefly IFR snowfall Wednesday morning.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium in ceilings at or below 5000 feet this afternoon and Wednesday morning.

* High in precip type as snow today and Wednesday.

* Low in crosswind exceedence this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 411 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

DISCUSSION...

The arctic airmass has settled across southeast Michigan. The winds remain elevated, but have finally come down compared to last evening as the stronger lower level jet winds will continue to move east east through the morning. This combo is resulting in a very chilly start to the morning. Wind chills down to around 0 degrees for most of the area with areas across the Thumb reaching towards -10F wind chills at times. Any residual moisture from snow showers last evening quickly froze on untreated surfaces. Drivers should be cautious of variable driving conditions during the morning commute with patchy slick spots likely still lingering on roadways this morning on any untreated surfaces.

Trough axis will progress across the central Great Lakes today. Surface winds holding out of the W-NW with daytime highs in the 20s will keep the lake effect regime intact through this afternoon. A few flurries will be possible through the morning in the wake of the more robust lake effect streamers from earlier this morning and last evening. Models have weak surface instability with steep low level lapse rates this afternoon. This should bring a slight uptick in scattered lake effect showers. Limited accumulation potential expected across southeast Michigan with this activity. A tenth or two of snowfall accumulation at most will be possible in isolated spots. Shortwave ridge and rising heights will put an end to larger lake effect response by this evening.

Temperatures will begin to moderate middle to late week as warmer temperatures associated with the southwest CONUS mid-upper ridge are drawn into parts of the western/central Great Lakes. A couple of relatively weak systems will ride the northwest flow around this ridge offering a couple chances at light precipitation. Wednesday will see daytime highs reach into the 30s with thermal profiles cool enough for snow as the first system moves through bringing weak isentropic ascent. Accumulation potential looks like it should stay under and inch. Temperatures warm into the 40s and 50s for Thursday and Friday with the second system bringing light rain chances for Thursday given the warmer temperatures brining predominately rain with a brief period of time for some snow to mix in across the north. Lower predictability into the weekend in regards to rainfall and associated temperatures given the model variability at this time.

MARINE...

The northwest gales early this morning will come to an end later this morning as the thermal trough axis continues to exit east and the pressure gradient weakens. The bitter cold airmass will be conducive to heavy freezing spray into Tuesday before winds diminish sufficiently and airmass begins to modify.

High pressure to slide through the Ohio Valley tomorrow, with the pronounced surface ridging extending north by evening. This is provide a lull in winds, under 20 knots. However, moderate southwest winds to return on Wednesday as return flow around the high kicks in, and low pressure tracks through northern Ontario Wednesday night.

Light winds return Thursday-Friday as a weak frontal boundary washes out on Thursday. A warm front will then arrive on Friday, bringing a better chance of precipitation.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LHZ361>363-421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ361>363-421-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.