textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning into early afternoon. There is a low risk of severe weather with these storms. - Warm and windy with southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH today.

- Above average temperatures are expected through early next week.

AVIATION

Southwest winds have largely scattered out the persistent low clouds from earlier and will bring a period of VFR conditions for the early morning hours. LLWS concerns remain into tonight with weak surface winds and strong low level jet aloft, though gusty winds will eventually pick up ahead of the inbound cold front. Next round of showers and thunderstorms arrives after 12Z this ahead of said cold front. Line of showers/thunderstorms will move into MBS around 13Z and spread across the remaining terminals throughout the morning bringing likely MVFR conditions with IFR possible at times as the system rolls through. Winds become gusty out of the southwest at 30 to 35 knots by mid-morning as better mixing develops. Line of convection moves east early this afternoon with gusty west winds to around 25 knots through the rest of this afternoon tomorrow as MVFR ceilings look to hold through bulk of the day.

For DTW... Low clouds have mostly cleared out with a few lingering showers over the next couple of hours. Stronger thunderstorm potential will begin around 14-15Z this and clearing east early afternoon.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tonight. High this morning and afternoon.

* Moderate for thunderstorms at DTW mid-morning to early afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026

DISCUSSION...

The cluster of showers/isolated thunderstorms now advancing across the Saginaw Valley are tied to a mid level short wave impulse along the leading edge of a plume of elevated instability. A stronger wave tracking into central Lake Michigan this afternoon will track across nrn Lower Mi this evening. The trailing moist axis combined with the advection of weak elevated inability ongoing across srn Mi will support additional convective development this evening. A strong warm front positioned along the MI/OH border will slowly be drawn northward during the night under increasing southerly flow preceding a surface wave lifting across the western Great Lakes. The warm sector south this boundary is characterized by sfc temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Weak sfc based cape within this warm sector will attempt to push into Lenawee/Washtenaw counties this evening prior to nocturnal cooling, at least increasing the risk of a severe storm given the strong wind fields. Otherwise, evening convection will largely be elevated atop a very stable boundary layer, suggestive of hail as the main severe weather concern. With upper 50/lower 60 degree sfc dewpoints advecting into Se Mi along the warm front, areas of dense fog are likely to persist prior to the arrival of the warm sector, especially within the Lake Erie/St Clair marine layer. The northward advancing warm front will also lead to rising temps during the night.

An approaching upper level trough axis will drive an associated cold front across Se Mi late Saturday afternoon. There is strong agreement among hi res guidance and ensemble members indicating lead short wave features driving another round of convective Saturday morning. The coverage and duration of this will determine severe convective chances and wind gust potential later in the day. Ample warm moist air will remain in place in advance of the cold front, easily supporting highs in the 60s. A strongly sheared environment will remain in place. At this point, it is questionable at to whether there will be enough surface based instability to balance the shear, especially if early day convection becomes a little more widespread. For this reason, most of Se Mi remains in a marginal risk for severe wx. Daytime mixing potential will also support windy conditions. Available probabilistic guidance suggests enough uncertainty as to whether mixing depths adequately reach into the 40- 45 knot low level wind fields to hold off on advisory criteria wind gusts attm.

Respectable yet shallow post frontal cold air advection will drive temps into the 30s Sun night. Rebounding mid level heights and steady warm air advection within west-southwest winds will result in a steady warming trend Sunday into Monday under dry conditions. Highs in the 60s look highly probably on Monday, with some ensemble members still indicating a few locals reaching 70.

MARINE...

Ongoing progression of a warm front across the Great Lakes will continue to advect in higher surface moisture and given ongoing dense fog across Lake Erie and Lake St Clair and factoring in expanding moisture, have opted to expand the marine dense fog advisory across all of Lake Huron and the Saginaw Bay and extend the ongoing advisory for locations south. Some improvement with visibilities will be possible with any rain showers, however, widespread improvement to conditions will be more likely with the passage of a cold front which will move across the Great Lakes through tomorrow afternoon.

Widespread rain showers with a low chance for some embedded thunderstorms will move in this evening across Lake Huron. A lull in activity overnight, with a second round of rain showers and thunderstorms chances expected through tomorrow morning ahead and along the cold front. There will be a low-end chance for gusts to reach gales along and immediately behind the cold front tomorrow afternoon, but given the brevity for gale potential, will preclude and issuance of gale products. Any stronger thunderstorms will have the capability to produce gusts in excess of 34 knots.

Some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible Sunday morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profiles brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the surface. A strong warm front then pushes through Monday morning, which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY...

Probabilities show two time periods with the greatest/more widespread rain potential; this evening and then again Saturday morning. 12-hour rain totals are most likely to fall into the one quarter to three quarters inch range. Some totals up to an inch are possible across the Saginaw Valley and thumb regions. While this will result in rises on area rivers, no flooding is forecast.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-421- 422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ444.