textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with near average temperatures through tomorrow.

- Slight warm-up Friday through this weekend.

AVIATION

Layer of moisture trapped between 2500 and 3500 ft will hold firm tonight as cold northwest flow maintains a steady moisture flux off the upstream lakes. Prevailing VFR late this evening will trend toward high MVFR with a nocturnal reduction of inversion heights favoring slight lower of cloud base. Little variation of conditions noted through early Thursday, but with cloud base easing upward with time as daytime heating takes hold. Gradual warming and drying of the existing moist layer late Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure builds in will support scattering and eventually clearing of low stratus.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less through Thursday morning. Medium by mid-day Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

An upper trough resides across eastern Canada extending into the northeast CONUS while a shortwave ridge and surface high pressure move across the Midwest. This setup will allow northwest winds to persist into tonight, which will maintain a steady stream of lake effect clouds. A few isolated flurries remain possible into early evening with the cloud layer hovering around -12C. A few 9-10SM snow observations have been noted this afternoon. Lower level winds decrease into the evening and less favorable mixing will ease any gust potential over the course of the evening.

Surface high pressure centers over the central Great Lakes tomorrow, though the back side of the thermal trough still lingers. This will keep daytime highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s. The high pressure will bring dry conditions with greater breaks in the clouds. Friday will see the high pressure ridge pass to the east and greater S-SW lower level flow ushering in a slightly warmer airmass. This should boost daytime highs to around 40 degrees for Friday.

Split flow will be over the region heading into the weekend with weak mid-level height rises. Chances remain low to see precipitation over the weekend as a northern stream wave and southern stream wave maintain enough separation for only minor phasing, if any, that would occur over Michigan. The southern stream low pressure center will be moving across the southern Gulf states with the northern edge of associated precipitation up through the Ohio Valley. Broader QPF solutions bring less than 20% chance of rain to the southern border Sunday morning while activity with northern stream wave stays focused north of Lake Huron. Thus, it looks like the entire area is more likely to stay dry for the weekend. Only subtle changes to the airmass will keep daily highs around 40 degrees and morning lows in the 20s.

Stronger surface high pressure moves back into the region as the central CONUS ridge begins to drift over the Midwest early next week. This will keep the ongoing dry and above normal temperatures into Monday and Tuesday. Daytime highs by Tuesday may be up to mid 40s. Best ensemble support for next chance of precipitation arrives mid next week.

MARINE...

Cold northwest flow persists across the central Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, gradually decreasing in magnitude overnight into Thursday. High pressure passes across the western Great Lakes Thursday before shifting into the Ohio Valley on Friday as a clipper system tracks near northern Lake Huron. This system will bring an uptick of southwest winds on Friday with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. High pressure then passes over the region Saturday and Sunday with lighter winds. A weak cold front may pass through late Sunday, but mainly dry conditions are favored into early next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.