textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather continues today through Thursday.

- Temperatures remain at or slightly above normal today and Tuesday, despite a shallow cold front sagging southward across the region.

- A low chance of fog or low clouds across the Thumb and Tri-Cities tonight and Tuesday morning.

- A renewed warming trend begins Wednesday and Thursday as high temperatures return to the 70s.

- The next chance for measurable rainfall holds off until Thursday night and Friday along the next weak cold front.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM this morning.

* Low for cigs at or below 5000 ft today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

A weakly forced cold front lean on moisture is the weather highlight for SE Mi today. The initial wind shift passes through the Tri Cities and northern Thumb leading up to sunrise while any remaining pockets of rain continue dissipating. The front lacks moisture and is just too far south of the Ontario mid level trough and upper jet to sustain precipitation, however clouds are plentiful along and behind the surface boundary. This helps sharpen an already respectable boundary layer temperature gradient, but which takes nearly the entire day to reach the Ohio border. The weak and slow low level cold advection allows another day of above normal high temperatures south of I-69, and especially from metro Detroit to the Ohio border where highs around 70 are once again in reach. Boundary layer cold advection then gains traction tonight as the surface front settles into the Ohio valley and high pressure slides across northern Ontario to strengthen NE flow into the central Great Lakes. Low to mid level frontal clouds linger overhead with the chance for a stratocu component inland from Lake Huron. Guidance temperatures still only drop to normal lows in the upper 30s Tri Cities and Thumb to mid 40s metro Detroit southward by sunrise.

Tuesday ends up being cooler compared to recent days, however still at or slightly above normal. Mid level clouds hold through the day within the mid levels of the frontal zone stalled overhead while the surface boundary remains located across the Ohio valley. The clouds combine with steady NE wind into Lower Mi to produce high temperatures in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Broad low pressure developing from the central Plains into central Canada then begins a new warming trend across the Midwest which spreads into the Great Lakes Wednesday. There are additional clouds but still not much sign of rain in the warm advection pattern among the 26/00Z models, however guidance temperatures quickly return to around 70 Wednesday afternoon and lower to mid 70s Thursday. Records are in the upper 70s for Thursday/29th as recently as 2024.

The larger scale upper air pattern maintains a split flow in the northern stream jet during the late week which directs surface low tracks from the SW States into central Canada and then eastward. This keeps the associated cold fronts more benign upon reaching Lower Mi with the next one projected for Thursday night into Friday. It presents the next chance of rain but not much of a temperature drop by Friday. NBM guidance high temperatures hold in the mid to upper 60s through the weekend, ahead of these low tracks and in SW flow off high pressure pinned near the mid Atlantic coast.

MARINE...

A dry cold frontal passage will clear into the eastern Great Lakes this morning resulting northerly post-frontal flow. The surface pressure gradient should sufficiently constrict for an uptick in winds and waves heading into the evening hours. A brief period of occasional wave heights above 5 feet may develop for Outer Bay and portions of the southern Lake Huron shoreline, where fetch is maximized. A short-fused Small Craft Advisory may still be needed this evening. High pressure then translates southeastward across Ontario on Tuesday, before settling over New England by Wednesday. In response, local winds will veer easterly. Several additional waves of low pressure are expected to track northeastward from The Plains through the Upper Midwest during the the mid-late week time- frame, but winds and waves largely hold below headline criteria.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.