textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Friday.

- A chance of snow Saturday.

- Colder Sunday.

AVIATION

Stretch of dry and stable low level conditions as high pressure builds across the region will maintain VFR with clear skies across the lowest 5000 ft through tonight. Upstream satellite trends show some intervals of mid level cloud funnel toward the area, offering interludes of scattered to broken cigs invof 10k ft. Early day winds from the northwest, shifting to southwesterly this afternoon and remaining below 10 knots.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

Surface high rolling through the state this morning has allowed bulk of cloud cover to scatter offering a cold start to the day with surface observations showing temperatures down into the teens and single digits. Lighter winds under the surface high by daybreak will offer minimum wind chills in the lower single digits. Cold thermal trough still influencing the region, though the coldest air will start to move out throughout the day as winds turn out of the southwest with the departing high. Look for highs today in the low 30s across the Thumb to mid-upper 30s elsewhere. A weak shortwave trough swings through the northern Great Lakes this afternoon and tonight. The best moisture and forcing will be north across the UP and northern Lower Michigan, but there some evidence that far northern portions of the CWA may get clipped by weak snow showers/flurries tonight. Otherwise, mostly dry weather is expected.

Greater warm air advection expected for Friday associated with a strengthening low pressure system across central/northern Ontario. Temperatures at 850mb climb several degrees above freezing ahead of the systems cold front. Expecting temperatures to reach into the 50s for much of southeast Michigan with portions of the Thumb reaching the mid-upper 40s. Low level jet winds of 40-50 knots move over the area Friday. The warm advection helps lower mixing depths to some degree, which should limit higher gust potential. Gusts to around 35 mph will be possible, especially north of I-69. Cold front passes through Friday night. Lack of any moisture will result in a dry frontal passage.

Frontal boundary settles south of the state with cold advection drawing daytime temperatures for Saturday down into the low 30s to low 40s. The stalled boundary will become parallel to the mean mid level flow that will be carrying a mid level wave over the area. This will trigger a FGEN response and result in a chance of light snow Saturday afternoon into the evening. Light QPF amounts bring a chance to see snowfall accumulations of a half inch up to around an inch possible that are currently focused along and south of I-69. The southern periphery of an arctic airmass moves in Saturday night sending Sunday afternoon temperatures back down into the 20s. Strong high pressure should keep conditions dry Sunday into early next week while a gradually rebound in temperatures occur.

MARINE...

Lighter winds start the day as Midwestern high pressure slides across the southern Great Lakes. Winds shift to the southwest by early afternoon as the high begins to depart and a weak disturbance reaches the northern Great Lakes. Associated snow showers are confined to northern half of the Lake Huron. Southwesterly winds strengthen daytime Friday in response to strong low pressure tracking over northern Ontario. Despite 40-50kt winds developing aloft during this timeframe, milder airmass should greatly limit overlake mixing capping potential peak wind gusts at 30kts. An arctic cold front quickly follows Friday night ushering in a much colder airmass as well supporting a 5-8hr window for northwest gusts to exceed 34kts over the northern third of Lake Huron (currently 75% probability to reach gales) with lower potential (~40%) to near 40kts for a few hours. A Gale Watch is in effect north of Sturgeon Point Friday night through early Saturday morning. High pressure then follows for the latter half of the weekend.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for LHZ361- 362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.