textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain continues this morning. Below normal temperatures this afternoon.

- Chance for rain showers and an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon.

- Warming trend through the early week period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceilings at or below 5000ft today and tonight.

* Low for ceilings and visibilities to fall to 200ft or 1/2SM today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

Low pressure now centered over the lower Ohio Valley will continue to progress into far southeast Michigan and western Lake Erie before washing out across Ontario and Quebec. This will continue to support widespread rain showers across SE MI through the morning hours. Locally higher rainfall totals are expected generally along or south of a line from Port Huron to Adrian. This will be tied to the enhanced rainfall rates from the 850-750 mb frontogenetic response northeast of the surface low, where this low-level jet and isentropic ascent is maximized. Elevated rates will be possible now through 10AM EDT which will bring the potential to achieve rainfall totals aoa 1". Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder with any better forcing, but lack of instability favors rain showers for most locations.

The associated mid-level wave brings lighter rain showers up through the Flint area and Tri-Cities to Thumb. Shallow moisture depths up through 5kft will then support drizzle to periodic light rain showers through the afternoon hours. Have trended temperatures down given prolonged period of rain potential and extensive early day cloud cover, capping highs in the 50s for most locations. The exception will be closer to the MI/OH border up through the Metro region, where there will be some potential to briefly push in the warm sector as the low exits northeast. This could quickly push temperatures well into the 60s.

A lull in activity is expected late this evening and overnight before a mid-level wave brings renewed rain chances in the afternoon hours tomorrow. Modest instability of several hundred J/kg will bring the chance for embedded thunderstorms. Temperatures will return to seasonal normals with highs in the 70s. The remainder of the forecast period will be influenced by an expansive Canadian high pressure that will gradually increase in proximity and intensity leading into the late week period. Forcing will be nebulous and greatly limits rain chances outside of some low-end potential under the early week zonal flow with embedded glancing shortwaves, or a backdoor cold front along the expanding high pressure during the mid to late week period. But otherwise, warmer Mon - Wed with highs in the 80s. Slightly cooler temperatures build in to end the week in the wake of the aforementioned front.

MARINE...

Small craft advisories continue for all nearshore waters with strong onshore flow. Easterly winds gusting 25 to 30 knots will persist much of the day as surface low slow tracks north from the northern Ohio Valley. Widespread rain showers and a very low chance of thunderstorms will also continue to expand north through the day as low. The low will weaken and dissipate late Saturday into Saturday night over Lake Huron, leading to lighter winds for the second half of the weekend. However, another upper-level disturbance will bring a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair on Sunday.

High pressure returns Monday and slips east into the Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday, maintaining generally light winds.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall continues through the morning hours with totals ranging between a quarter inch to three quarter inch for most locations. Localized higher rainfall rates will be possible roughly along and southeast of a line from Port Huron to Adrian which brings potential for totals to an inch or slightly higher. Moderate rainfall rates will be most likely between 4AM - 10AM. Overall dry conditions for much of the area over the past 30 days suggests the potential for flooding is low, aside from typical isolated flood prone locations in the urban areas.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ048-049-055-063.

Beach Hazards Statement until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ070- 076.

Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ083.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ422.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ444.