textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog with pockets of light rain and drizzle tonight and this morning.

- Showers increase coverage this afternoon and evening. Elevated thunderstorms possible mainly south of I-94.

- A chance of showers and elevated thunderstorms late Friday as a warm front draws milder temperatures into the area.

- Warmer conditions Friday night and Saturday with periods of showers and a chance of thunderstorms.

AVIATION

Inbound warm front will continue to advect lower level moisture through the state through early this morning. Expecting widespread IFR to LIFR stratus eventually lifts to FNT during the early morning hours. The abundant low level moisture brings rain showers with greater coverage of fog arriving through 08Z. It still appears that MVFR cigs/vsbys will be favored farther north towards FNT/MBS to start the night, but will eventually see IFR/LIFR ceilings by around 08-09Z. Expecting a brief break in rain around mid morning while IFR/LIFR VSBYs hold on. An area of heavier rain showers returns early this afternoon with perhaps slight improvement in visibility towards the late afternoon and evening while low stratus continues. Fog looks likely to return after 00Z later this evening.

For DTW...IFR/LIFR stratus will continue to fill in across DTW as visibility drops to IFR/LIFR towards 08-09Z. IFR/LIFR stratus continues through today with possible improvement in cigs/vsbys towards the late afternoon before a return to foggy conditions again this evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 ft through today and tonight.

* Moderate for ceilings and visibilities below 200 ft and 1/2SM through this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

DISCUSSION...

Moist low level easterly flow within the backdrop of expansive high pressure will maintain control through the evening hours. Extensive early day dense fog and low cloud across eastern/southern sections largely eradicated for the moment under daytime heating. Strong signal remains for aggressive low level saturation to commence again after sunset as mixing fades, prompting renewed expansion of a combination of low stratus and fog. A general persistence forecast suggests southern/eastern areas will again be most prone to an earlier and more dense response tonight. Mid level wave lifting across the baroclinic zone stalled over the Ohio valley will initiate a modest window of moist isentropic ascent as the 850 mb front eases into the region. This brings the potential for a chaotic coverage of light shower production overnight and Thursday morning. Forecast will continue to highlight greater potential from I-69 southward, while areas to the north favor dry conditions as influence of easterly flow outweighs the meager moisture transport this far up the frontal slope. This largely mitigates concern for precipitation to arrive as freezing rain where temperatures still hover near freezing Thursday morning across the northern Saginaw valley and thumb region.

Expansive region of low stratus and fog with some pockets of light rain to mark the early day conditions Thursday under pervasive, moist low level easterly flow. Another inbound, more dynamic southern stream wave projected to lift across the quasi-stationary frontal zone during the afternoon and evening. A more notable increase in both moisture quality/depth and mid level forcing as the elevated frontal zone enters the region will support a higher coverage of rainfall across this window. A late day rumble of thunder plausible south of I-94 as mid level stability briefly declines. Limited recovery in daylight temperature given the wet profile. Highs parked within a range from upper 30s north to mid 40s south.

Moderating thermal profile within the background of building large scale upper heights Friday. Possibility for some lingering lower stratus as low level flow remains backed slightly toward the southeast gives pause to the degree of this warmup initially, noting some solutions maintain a more conservative approach relative to the outgoing forecast of low to mid 60s. Brief increase in theta-e late Friday with the warm frontal passage will provide a chance of showers/elevated thunder development, but with better potential holding to the west into the evening. Higher probability of rainfall and accompanying thunder potential will await the arrival of better cold frontal dynamics and moisture transport late Friday night into Saturday. Milder resident thermal profile now entrenched will afford temperatures of roughly 20 to 25 degrees above average Saturday - highs in the 60s. Drier conditions with temperatures firmly still above average Sunday into the start of next week.

MARINE...

Milder airmass in place across the region supports the redevelopment and expansion of fog over the southern Great Lakes and at least the southern half of Lake Huron tonight. Another marine dense fog advisory will likely be needed for at least a portion of the area as a result. Low pressure lifts along the stalled front over the Ohio Valley into the far southern Great Lakes Thursday. Locally, winds shift to the east-northeast with gusts peaking between 20-25kts. Widespread showers, focused over the southern half of the region accompany the system with a low chance for a thunderstorm or two towards Lake Erie late day Thursday.

Brief dry period sets up early Friday before another low lifts out of the Plains and over the northern Great Lakes. Attendant warm front crosses Friday night shifting winds from the southeast to southwest by early Saturday. While flow aloft strengthens post- front, much above normal airmass will maintain strong thermal stability over the lakes which should cap gusts below 30kts, save for immediately along the lakeshores. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are possible with the warm front though better coverage arrives daytime Saturday as the system's cold front crosses the central Great Lakes. There is a brief window along/immediately following the front where west/west-northwest gusts could near entry- level gales. Otherwise, southwesterly flow and milder air return by Sunday in response to low pressure tracking across northern Ontario.

HYDROLOGY...

Rounds of showers are expected Thursday, with embedded thunderstorms possible south of I-94 Thursday afternoon. Storm total rainfall amounts are generally expected to range between 0.25" to 0.75", although locally higher amounts are possible if any thunderstorms develop. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday into this weekend. Rises on area rivers and ponding of water on roads is possible.

CLIMATE...

The record highest minimum temps for Saturday, March 7th.

Detroit: 47 Degrees (Set in 2012) Flint: 49 Degrees (Set in 2012) Saginaw: 49 Degrees (Set in 2012)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LHZ421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.