textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog expected along shorelines areas of Lake Huron and Lake St Clair through the day.

- Widespread precipitation tonight through Wednesday morning. All rain is expected with a chance of freezing rain north of M 46. Rumble of thunder possible Wednesday morning.

- Mild temperatures persist through Thursday.

- A rain/snow mix moves in by Friday followed by a temperature drop back toward mid/late February normals this weekend.

AVIATION

Visibilities are beginning to decrease this evening on the north side of a developing warm front drifting just north of the state line recently. DET and MBS still being affected by the dense marine fog with 1/4SM so will continue that tempo a bit longer. Nocturnal cooling and moisture advection will lead to widespread fog into the overnight which will have to be monitored as obs jump around. The front will then bring a period of widespread rain into the morning hours before much drier air surges in for the afternoon. The combination of fog and rain will likely drop vsbys and/or cigs into LIFR for several hours til the drier air moves in.

For DTW...Denser fog off Lake Erie still not reaching the airport but recent obs and satellite show fog expanding across the county. This trend should continue as moisture continues to advect in this evening. Rain will move in around midnight and then rain and fog will carry through the morning hours.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 200 ft and/or visibilities below 1/2SM overnight and Wednesday morning.

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Wednesday morning.

* High in precip type as all rain tonight.

* Low in thunderstorms overnight and Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

DISCUSSION...

Foggy conditions have improved for bulk of all inland areas, so have expired the Dense Fog Advisory early. Satellite view still indicates some isolated spots along the lake shores of Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair where patchy dense fog remains possible. The stationary front has settled around the southern MI border this afternoon with a cooler easterly flow and remaining snow pack offering variable afternoon temperatures. Locations with lower snow depth and limited coverage of fog from earlier have managed to reach into the lower/mid 50s. Dry conditions will hold into the early evening with the passage of a mid/upper ridge.

A strong low pressure system becoming organized in the lee of the Rockies with aide of the 170 knot southern stream jet this afternoon. This system will lead to a surge of warm advection within a region of good upper level divergence. Strong moisture transport with the low level jet will occur within this region sending PWATs towards 1.00 inch. The increasing moisture will feed into the frontal slope and result in widespread precipitation moving across southeast Michigan beginning tonight. Precipitation moves in around midnight along with a return to foggy conditions as surface front lifts back north. Rain will continue through much of the morning tomorrow before coming to an end around 11 am. Average rainfall totals reach a half inch to three quarters of an inch mainly north of the I-69 corridor through the event. A few hours of at or a degree or two below freezing temperatures are forecast tonight across northern portions of the CWA in the northern Thumb and Bay/Midland county. Warm advection will be ongoing throughout the morning, so the window for freezing rain appears relatively short and does not appear to rise to Winter Weather Advisory level at this time given lower confidence on any widespread impacts. A light glaze of ice remains possible before temperatures warm up. Isolated slick spots will be possible in the locations that can stay at freezing or slightly below for a longer duration than expected. Temperatures will be monitored for any adjustment to icing potential and more enhanced messaging. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible by mid- late tomorrow morning given the increased SBCAPE and MUCAPE values.

Precipitation comes to an end by early tomorrow afternoon as the frontal zone lifts northward and the dry slot moves in. A solid warm sector builds across the southern MI border while a few hi-res models depict the warm front/occlusion stalling out around the I-69 corridor. This would bring a solid north to south gradient of temperatures tomorrow afternoon with lower 60s up towards the Detroit metro area and possibly upper 30s for far northern portions of the CWA.

Occluded low hangs out over the Upper Midwest into Thursday while the next wave tracking through the southern stream flow generates the next surface low pressure system across the central plains. This low will lift northeast into the central Great Lakes by Friday evening. Lower PoPs enter the forecast during the day Thursday, but bulk of heavier precipitation will arrive towards 6-7 pm on Thursday. This low then occludes over the region bringing a chance for a transition to rain/snow mix later in the day on Friday with any lingering light precipitation. For the weekend, the stretch of warmer temperatures will come crashing back down to more normal values for mid/late February.

MARINE...

Afternoon satellite imagery shows a persistent layer of marine fog over much of the central Great Lakes. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until this evening for the northern half of Lake Huron, and until Wednesday morning for southern Lake Huron and St. Clair. The expectation for northern Huron is that increasing gradient flow should help mix out the marine layer earlier, but if that fails to materialize, an extension of the advisory could be needed this evening.

Winds organize out of the east tonight with an approaching low pressure system. A modest low-level jet moves overhead with time as the mature system tracks northeastward across Minnesota. This supports gusts to gales over the northern half of the Huron basin by Wednesday morning. A Gale Warning remains in place until Wednesday afternoon, before the low-level wind field weakens. This system will also produce a period of rainfall on Wednesday, possibly mixed with snow over the northern waterways. A brief lull in dynamics ensues Thursday, favoring headline-free conditions. Another period of elevated winds arrives Friday with the next low pressure system. Potential exists for gusts to gales over northern Lake Huron Friday morning.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain moves tonight and tomorrow morning. Moderate probabilities for 0.25" to 0.5" of rain are forecast along the M-59 corridor and moderate probabilities for 0.5" to 0.75" are forecast north of I-69. The rain will occur on top of a melting snowpack that had a Snow Water Equivalent analysis ranging between 0.5" to 1". The combination of rain and snow melt on frozen ground may lead to rises on area streams and rivers. Ponding of water on roads is also possible, especially where drains could be blocked by snow and/or winter debris.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ421-422-441>443- 462>464.

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LHZ361>363.

Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.