textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Westerly winds 25-35 mph, occasionally gusting 45-60 mph late tonight through early Monday evening. High Wind Warning in effect with power outages expected.

- Snow showers/snow squalls are also expected Monday, producing 1 to 2 inches of accumulation. Travel will be difficult with the strong winds, poor visibility in squalls, and snow covered roads.

- Seasonably cold conditions with wind chills in the single digits and teens will occur Monday through the end of the week.

AVIATION

A powerful cold front has swept east of the terminal corridor as of midnight, and is nearly through all of SE Mi. The parent low pressure center deepens further while crossing northern Lower Mi and northern Lake Huron to drive damaging wind gusts over the entire Great Lakes late tonight and during the day. SW gusts quickly ramped up into the 30 kt range with frequent peak gusts around 40 kts while inbound colder air lifted ceiling into the MVFR range during late evening. These conditions continue until lake effect snow showers activate toward sunrise and move in during the morning with generous coverage of accumulation in model projections. Accumulation potential suggests scattered to numerous coverage of IFR snow showers with a burst of LIFR intensity included along and behind a reinforcing arctic cold front that sweeps past MBS shortly after sunrise and reaching DTW around noon. Wind shifts NW behind the arctic front and gusts peak in the mid to upper 40 kt range. MVFR ceiling develops some breaks late in the day and snow showers decrease coverage and intensity toward Monday evening. Wind gusts drop off peak but still hold in the 30 kt range after sunset.

For DTW... Very windy conditions ramp up across the terminal area now that a powerful cold front has passed east of the area. Initial gusts in the 30 kt range frequently reach 40 kts during the late night and then 45+ knots during the day. Snow showers increase coverage and intensity during the morning with some organization added by a reinforcing arctic front. Wind blown snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches is likely until snow showers diminish toward Monday evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling below 5000 feet late tonight and Monday.

* High for crosswind threshold exceedence late tonight and Monday.

* High for precipitation type as snow late tonight through Monday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

DISCUSSION...

Strong PV anomaly tracking through the northern Plains, helping to direct record setting moisture/low level warmth for late December standards into southeast Michigan this evening (highs of the day after 00z). 12z DTX sounding already indicated an 925 MB temp and dew pt of 9 C. Western Ohio Valley and Eastern Missouri had 925 MB temps of 17-18 C, so seems reasonable for 14 C temps at 925 MB to surge in early this evening south of M-59. With locations along and south of the I-94 corridor getting into the warm sector, there is a chance of wind gusts to 60 mph with any convection ahead/along the cold front passing through during the evening hours. Near surface profiles still look slightly stable however, which may be enough to prevent the strong wind gusts, in addition to the meager instability.

Frontal passage around or just after midnight, as deepening surface low tracks into Lake Huron tonight. Strong high res model consensus (RAP/3k NAM/ARW/ARW2/HRRR/Euro) with the low deepening to around 975 MB by Monday morning near Georgian Bay. With at least 55-60 knots of flow at the 850 MB level, confidence is high in occasional wind gusts of 45-55 MPH throughout Monday, with a surface trough passage around mid day also likely providing a focus. Steepening low level lapse rates and inversion heights aoa 7 kft, along with much of the cloud depth/minimal cape in the dgz will be conducive to snow showers/squalls, and isolated wind gusts to 60 MPH seem likely in the convective rolls. With the soaked ground from today's rainfall, weakened tree limbs from the ice storm, and long duration of strong wind gusts tonight through early tomorrow evening, have elected to go with high wind warning for all of southeast Michigan. Expecting to see a significant number of power outages. 6z Euro ensemble meteograms indicating close to the half members supporting 55-60 MPH peak wind gusts as well.

The strong winds and snow squalls will make for tough travel conditions on Monday, despite just an inch or two of snow accumulation as 700 MB cold pool (-20 C)/trough axis tracks through. Any leftover standing water will also freeze for the Monday morning commute as temps fall into the upper 20s.

Slow evolving upper level pattern the rest of the week, as massive 500 MB low (sub 500 DAM) meanders/retrogrades west over Eastern Canada/Hudson Bay. Fast northwest flow with tight baroclinic zone in place over the Great Lakes region will lead to a chance of light snow with various upper level disturbances tracking through. A gradual moderation of the airmass and height rises to end the work week into the Weekend, as temperatures likely approach the freezing mark over the Weekend.

MARINE...

A rapidly deepening low over southern Lake Michigan tracks northeast and reaches northern Lake Huron by Monday morning. The bulk of model guidance produces a central pressure of 976 to 979mb, offering high confidence for a high-end wind event overnight and through the day Monday. Widespread rain continues through this evening with a few thunderstorms - some of which may become severe, mainly near Lake Erie. The system will be surrounded by a 50 to 60 kt wind field just off the deck, with much of this magnitude brought downward by a series of cold fronts. The first sweeps east across the southern Lakes late this evening with strong WSW wind ensuing through the morning. Widespread strong gales are expected with a few gusts to storm force possible as well. Arctic air then surges in from the northwest Monday morning to bring NW gales and storms across Lake Huron. In coordination with neighboring offices including ECCC, opted to upgrade the Gale Warning for Lake Huron to a Storm Warning for the event duration, with the peak of the event winding down late Monday evening. Meanwhile, snow squalls increase in coverage and freezing spray becomes heavy as the arctic air surges in. Gales look to taper off by noon on Tuesday with a persistent northwest flow pattern through the week bringing additional snow showers and occasional freezing spray.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and a few thunderstorms will impact Southeast Michigan into this evening. Total rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range, with the highest amounts along and north of M-59. Localized minor flooding of urban and low lying areas will be possible, but 6 hour flash flood guidance is above 2 inches across most areas, and even 2.5 to 3 inches over the Tri-Cities region.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...High Wind Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for MIZ047>049- 053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Storm Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 11 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ361-362.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ361>363.

Storm Warning until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ363-421-422-441>443- 462>464.

Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ444.

Low Water Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ444.