textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms continue this morning and afternoon. Better coverage of showers and storms possible late tomorrow into Monday.

- Temperatures remain seasonable through this weekend, with highs mainly in the 80s.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High for ceiling aob 5000 ft this morning. Low this afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms today.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front will progress across SE MI this afternoon and provide the primary focus for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm development. Around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE will be available ahead and along of the boundary although deep-layer shear remains on the weaker side at 20 knots or less. This will favor pulse-type convection with limited organization. Some better coverage will be possible within the Thumb, aided by localized convergence near the land/lake interface. The severe weather threat remains very low, but steep-low level lapse rates and elevated DCAPE values will support the low-end risk for a localized strong wet microburst with any robust development. Shower and thunderstorm chances end after the passage of the front this evening.

Forecast confidence decreases considerably tomorrow into Monday as attention turns to convective development upstream across the Upper Midwest. Strengthening low-level south flow will bring enhanced moisture transport across Iowa and Minnesota, supporting thunderstorms along the nose of the LLJ. Propagation of the forecasted MCS east or southeast will place the Great Lakes region at risk for shower and thunderstorm potential by later in the day on Sunday. Surface-based instability in this setup looks limited locally, especially by the later evening hours, although building elevated instability will be capable of sustaining thunderstorm potential. Elevated activity would also bring potential for locally heavy rainfall and hail.

Evolution of storms leading into Monday will then be highly dependent on Sunday activity as outflow boundaries will have substantial influence on Monday instability and subsequent storm development. Should any outflow settle south of the state line, higher stability over Michigan affords much higher probabilities for more limited storm development. Where conversely a lingering boundary across the cwa could be a focal point for multiple rounds of renewed thunderstorm development, potentially strong given the better shear, along with localized heavy rainfall with any thunderstorm training.

MARINE...

Most marine areas will remain dry with only a slight chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm going through the day as a cold front pushes across the region. Winds will generally remain on the lighter side outside of any thunderstorm activity that does occur. Southerly flow will turn northwest going through the day on Saturday behind the departing cold front and may briefly top at or above 20 knots over northern Lake Huron. High pressure then builds back in late Saturday into Sunday before switching back to the south ahead of another system set to impact the region Monday. Rain and thunderstorm activity will remain low through the weekend, with better chances for unsettled weather coming in at the start of next week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.