textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with temperatures near average through Thursday, then a slight warm-up Friday through this weekend.

AVIATION

Cold air advection within northwest flow has been generating a healthy strato cu field off Lake Michigan. The deepening of the low level cold air has pushed ceiling height just above 3000 feet over much of the area. The Lake Mi moist plume will reside across Se Mi through the day. There are indications in the model solutions that diurnal mixing will expand the depth of the cloud layer, making MVFR based ceilings more probable late this morning/afternoon. The depth of the mixing layer will sustain frequent WNW wind gusts around 20 knots through the afternoon. While MVFR probabilities decrease this evening, the moisture plume off Lake Mi hold lower end VFR based clouds across the area under the persistence of the NNW flow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

DISCUSSION...

Remnant upper troughing over the Great Lakes maintains cooler northwest flow into lower MI which likewise maintains a stream of lake effect stratocu through the day. Colder airmass (850mb temps around -13C) is marginal for a lake response resulting in more muted development off Lake Michigan and offering only scattered flurry potential for SE MI at best this afternoon. Main impact instead is thermally with cloud cover limiting insolation, combined with modest CAA, keeping highs below freezing (around 30) for the vast majority. Similar forecast for Thursday as the western edge of upper troughing lingers over the central Great Lakes offering no change in airmass. Midwest surface high pressure begins to expand over southern lower MI through the day however supporting light NW winds as well as a few more breaks in continuing lake effect cloud cover.

Surface ridge axis crosses SE MI by Friday morning as low amplitude upper ridging within spilt flow builds in from the Plains. While longer range models suggest some phasing of the northern/southern streams, this flow pattern favors the then developing southern stream shortwave tracking well to our south. Probabilities of precip tied to this system have steadily fallen with chances now under 20%. Instead, weekend is more likely characterized by weak surface high pressure and dry conditions. Upper pattern also keeps colder air confined to northern Ontario/eastern Canada with local 850mb temps holding around 0C through the weekend supporting above normal highs around 40F. Amplifying central CONUS upper ridging next work week favors a continuation of above average temps going into mid-February.

MARINE...

Low pressure will continue to progress from eastern Lake Ontario into New England through the morning, which will maintain colder northwest flow across the Great Lakes. The increased proximity to low pressure and reinforcement of cold air has sustained a moderate pressure gradient with elevated mixing depths. Gusts to gales remain possible across northern and north-central Lake Huron, where a Gale Warning remains in effect.

High pressure to gradually build in late in the day today through Thursday which will end gale potential and will promote lighter winds through the remainder of the midweek period. A clipper system may encroach upon Lake Huron on Friday which has potential to bring wind gusts aoa 20 knots, but otherwise high pressure builds back in over the weekend, maintaining lighter winds.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ361-362.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.