textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers end later today.

- Warming trend mid week with dry conditions expected Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

- The best chance of rain and possible thunderstorms arrives Thursday into Thursday evening.

- Temperatures cool back down below normal on Friday before warming back to more normal values over the course of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Northwest winds will hold through the remainder of the afternoon while ridging aloft and surface high pressure gain greater influence into this evening. Scattered snow showers will gradually decrease in coverage as dry air erodes the lower level lake moisture and the diurnal heating supporting these snow showers ends. Model data suggest that any mention of snow showers will be mostly done by around 8 pm this evening, so will continue to leave mention out beyond this time. The center of the surface high pressure will slide over Lower Michigan tonight bringing clearing skies. This should set up a favorable radiational cooling environment. While there will be some subtle warm air advection with the passing of the ridge axis, low temperatures tonight should still be able to achieve lower to mid 20s for most of the area.

Tomorrow will see the surface high pressure move to the southeast as a trailing low amplitude trough moves across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes. This system will have minimal impact locally with better forcing tied closer to the mid level wave. The warm air advection will counter the increased clouds from the wave to help lift temperatures up compared to today. Forecast afternoon temperatures for tomorrow should reach into the 40s as 850mb temperatures climb towards 0C.

Wednesday and Thursday will see greater warm advection ramp up each day as stretch of zonal flow carries portions of the thermal ridge, tied to the southwest CONUS high pressure ridge, into Michigan. This will help push temperatures up into the 50s for most areas with some 60s near the southern border for Wednesday. For Thursday, another jump in daytime high temperatures with upper 50s into the 60s for bulk of southeast Michigan and some 70s achievable across the south. Meanwhile, a lower level baroclinic zone sets up across the northern CONUS stretching across the central Great Lakes. Embedded waves riding the mid-upper jet within the zonal flow look to generate a surface reflection Wednesday night into Thursday. The result will be increasing rain chances mainly Thursday and Thursday evening along with the prospects for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening ahead of an advancing cold front. Cold air will offer a small chance for some snow to mix in with the rain on the tail end of the event late Thursday night and Friday morning. Temperatures fall back below normal for Friday before a warming trend builds temperatures back up over the weekend.

MARINE

Moderate northwest winds continue into the evening as Midwestern high pressure is slow to fully establish overhead. As a result, Small Craft Advisories have been extended through the evening before waves begin to lessen overnight when winds finally weaken. Said high is quick to depart Tuesday morning as a cold front tied to northern Ontario low pressure glances Lake Huron. The central Great Lakes reside along the fringe of strong upper jet over the upper Midwest/Superior through midweek offering periodic rain or rain-snow showers and generally modest winds as low pressure systems pass just to our north. A strong cold front is looking probable Friday ushering in a renewed shot of strong cold advection and a chance to reach gales for a few hours (~35% currently).

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026

AVIATION...

Widespread flurries to light snow showers will continue through the afternoon hours mainly across KPTK through the Metro terminals under the cooler northwest flow. While most of the activity is very light, there will be the continued low chance for an embedded moderate snow shower which can quickly reduce visibilities down to 5SM or less for a brief 10-20 minute window. Dry air will diminish light snow coverage through the early evening. Loss of daytime heating and high pressure will then diminish cloud coverage late tonight, leading to clear skies overnight.

For DTW...Flurries to light snow showers this afternoon. There will be a chance for an isolated moderate snow shower which can bring a bring a quick 10-20 minutes of elevated snowfall rates, leading to brief visibility reductions to 5SM or less. Snow accumulation not expected given current temperatures in the upper 30s.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through afternoon; medium through the early evening.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421- 441>443.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.