textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms possible late Sunday into Monday morning.

- Additional storms possible Monday night.

- Temperatures remain seasonable through most of this weekend, with highs mainly in the 80s.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Low for ceiling aob 5000 ft through Sunday afternoon.

* Low for thunderstorms Sunday evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2026

DISCUSSION...

The cold front was able to pass through with just a few showers in the northern Thumb and gusty westerly winds across the rest of the area. Subsidence from high pressure building into the region in the wake of the front this evening will quickly scour out the remaining cloud field and allow for a cool night with lows dropping into the 50s for most locations.

Main longwave trough flattens a bit tonight into tomorrow as heights attempt to rise slightly from the south. Surface high and shortwave ridge will be over the region the first half of Sunday keeping the area dry, but chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase once again in the late afternoon and evening as upstream convection attempts to drift into SE MI north of a developing warm front. A surface low will deepen over the Plains which then turns the stalled cold front draped along the Ohio Valley into a warm front and draws it back northward. Strong low level jet up through Iowa tonight will attempt to fire off a round of convection that will track along the elevated warm front across Lake MI and into SW lower MI early Sunday before potentially running out of instability and scouring out. Chance pops will begin west of I75 Sunday evening to account for the potential eastward shift of the convective complex. SPC Day 2 outlook highlights southern MI along the border with a Marginal Risk of severe weather for the potential for this, and or any other convection, riding along the warm front.

Additional storm chances Sunday night into Monday as the trough pushes the system eastward resulting in the low level jet intersecting the warm front near Chicago. This round of convection is then expected to track along the front and near the state line and into SE MI early Monday morning. SPC Day 3 outlook has an area of Slight Risk up through Detroit with Marginal Risk extending further north to Saginaw. Very moist airmass with surface dewpoints near 70F and PWATs in excess of 1.75 inches will lead to very efficient rainfall with the storms so in addition to severe weather threats, heavy rainfall will be a threat as well. Especially if multiple round of storms pass through the area through the day.

We remain in the active northwest flow pattern through midweek with potential for periodic rain chances. Slightly cooler pattern expected late in the week with highs only topping out in the upper 70s.

MARINE...

High pressure slides east across the region tonight into Sunday, with west-northwest winds becoming south and southwest by Sunday morning. South winds increase Sunday across northern Lake Huron, to around 20-25 knots. The uptick in winds on Sunday over the Saginaw Bay will bring 2-3 feet waves, but conditions look to fall just short of small craft advisory criteria at this time. Much of Sunday remains dry, but Sunday evening through early next week an active pattern will bring back chances for organized thunderstorms.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.