textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected this morning, with a second round likely along a cold front between 3pm and 7pm. There is a marginal (1/5) risk of wind gusts to 60 mph with the afternoon activity. - Warm and windy with southwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph today.

- Above average temperatures and breezy conditions are expected Sunday and Monday.

- Widespread precipitation late Tuesday through Wednesday. Potential exists for a wintry mix for parts of the area during this period.

AVIATION

MVFR ceilings are expected to fill in after taf issuance from north to south with moisture transport axis directed at Southeast Michigan. Thin axis of deep thetae with steep lapse rates between 7.0-15.0 kft agl will potentially lead to a 3 hour period for showers and thunderstorm activity late this morning. Well mixed southwest flow will bring gusty southwest winds of 25 to 35 knots in the wake of the morning convection. Cold front then pushes through Southeast Michigan between 21-24z with a low topped convective environment bringing low confidence in coverage. Prevailing MVFR conditions tonight clearing out after 14Z Sunday.

For DTW...Potential exists for thunderstorms between 14-17z. More uncertainty with occurrence of showers and thunderstorm between 21- 24z.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft today and tonight.

* Moderate for thunderstorms at DTW mid-morning to early afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 AM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

A positively tilted trough is tracking into the western Great Lakes with strong southwest flow ahead of it - upstream VWP data shows 50+ kt wind below 5 kft AGL set to work in this morning. Very mild air has entrenched SE MI with temps already in the mid to upper 50s, and model soundings maintain a stable near-surface layer which should hold most of the momentum aloft. A pocket of dense fog has re- emerged off western Lake Erie as dew points in the 50s advect over the frigid water. The local southeast wind is forecast to shift to southwest over the next few hours which should mitigate prolonged dense fog concerns. An area of pre-frontal showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread into the local area between 7am and 1pm, driven by a plume of deeper moisture accompanying a shortwave aloft. Model soundings suggest these will remain elevated as low-level lapse rates and DCAPE remain weak, but there remains the potential for some 40+ mph gusts to be dragged down with this activity.

A brief gap in showers is expected early this afternoon, but with increasing gustiness as low-level lapse rates increase. This causes temps to rise into the mid to upper 60s. Latest data favors background gusts peaking in the 30 to 40 mph range. As dew points increase into the upper 50s, weak instability will develop which will fuel a line of additional showers along the cold front this afternoon 3pm to 7pm. Overall SBCAPE is lean - below 500 J/kg - which may limit lightning, but 0-6km bulk shear of 40 kt is supportive of organized convection. If the CAPE can balance this shear, convection will have the ability to drag the higher momentum to the surface and gusts of up to 60 mph will be possible. SE MI is highlighted in a marginal (1/5) risk in the SPC day 1 outlook, driven by the 5% probability for damaging wind. A few hi-res runs bring in dew points over 60F which seem aggressive but if this were to happen confidence would be slightly higher in more vigorous convection with SBCAPE over 500 J/kg.

Cooler and drier air settles in behind the front, causing temps to fall to the 30s overnight into Sunday morning. A series of troughs will track across northern Ontario Sunday into Monday which induce a period of warm advection over the Great Lakes. Dry air and a lack of forced ascent offer a precip-free forecast with potential for lots of sunshine. A stout gradient will however produce breezy southwest winds to around 30-35 mph each day. The warming trend sees highs in the 50s on Sunday and well into the 60s on Monday.

Tuesday into Wednesday remains a period to monitor as a northern stream trough amplifies over the northern Rockies and phases with a cutoff Four Corners low. Broad synoptic scale ascent develops over the Midwest with a warm front developing somewhere in the vicinity of the Great Lakes to northern Ohio Valley. This front may be a focus for convection on Tuesday and its placement will be determined by the strength of northern Ontario high pressure during this period. Low pressure then organizes along the baroclinic zone extending westward into the Midwest, tracking into the Great Lakes to produce widespread precip on Wednesday. The 07.00z guidance favors warm solutions for much of SE MI but with very close proximity of a shallow cold surface layer maintaining potential for a stripe of wintry mix in the north. Colder air will follow this system with a changeover to snow possible Wednesday night.

MARINE...

Areas of dense fog continues, especially across Lake Huron where a warm front resides, with elevated near surface moisture producing limited visibility to 1 nm or less. A marine dense fog advisory remains in effect across Lake Huron and into the Saginaw Bay until 4PM EST. Passage of a cold front this morning will produce widespread rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms. There will be a low chance for an isolated strong to severe storm, capable of producing wind gusts aoa 34 knots. Additionally, non t-storm wind gusts associated with the cold front will be capable of producing some isolated gusts near 34 knots. Given the brevity for gale potential, will preclude the issuance of any gale products.

Some additional low end chances for gust to gales will be possible tomorrow morning and afternoon, but a near neutral thermal profile brings low confidence if stronger winds aloft will make it to the surface. A strong warm front then pushes through Monday morning, which will bring breezy southwest flow with gusts around 30 knots.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms track through the area this morning with a second round of showers and storms likely along a cold front later this afternoon. Rainfall totals are most likely to be a half inch or less but there is a 40% chance for localized areas to receive an inch of rain today. This is in addition to the 0.50 to 1.50 inches most areas received in the past 24 hours. Rises on area rivers are occurring but the potential for flooding remains low.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ361>363-421- 422-441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ444.