textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic air will last into Monday.

- A little warmer temperatures are forecast Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

A narrow axis of snow extending from ern Wisconsin to nrn Indiana resulting from amid level fgen band will remain well south-southwest of the forecast area this morning. Mid level confluence and strong sfc high pressure will persist over eastern Lower Mi today supporting a dry forecast. Arctic air remains entrenched across the Great Lakes region. After another frigid morning, afternoon highs today will only rise into the teens to lower 20s. Upstream mid/high clouds will infiltrate the western portions of the forecast at times today, while the east may see a few strato cu off Lake Huron. Mid level ridging will traverse Se Mi tonight, supporting strong mid level subsidence. While the sfc high will slowly drift east tonight, a weak gradient will persist over Se Mi. This will set up the potential for another night of good radiational cooling, limited to a degree by the potential for some lingering mid and high clouds. In light of recent guidance, forecast mins ranging from the low single digits across most of the area to around five below across the thumb look warranted.

The arctic air remains on target to depart to the east Monday while southwest flow expands into the western Great Lakes. Mid level warm air advection across Lower Mi is forecast to generate a lot of clouds Monday. There will also be some residual east-southeasterly component to the sfc winds. These factors will hold high temps Monday mainly in the 20s. Amplification of an upper wave forecast to rotate across nrn Ontario and Lake Superior Monday night into Tuesday will result in increasing low level southwest winds into Lower Mi Mon night in advance of the associated cold front. Model solutions, particularly the hi res suite, indicate a brief surge of good system relative ascent tracing across Se Mi Monday evening, with the ascent possibly lingering across the Saginaw Valley and thumb region into the overnight. The brevity of the forcing supports a low pop/low QPF forecast for mixed precip, with the chances mainly focused north of the I-94 corridor. Latest guidance indicates the warm sector briefly advancing into Se Mi late Mon night/early Tuesday. This will allow temps to make a run toward the 40 degree mark Tuesday depending on how quickly the associated cold front moves across the forecast area.

As the upper low tracks into ern Ontario and Quebec Tues night into Wednesday, colder air will advect back into Lower Mi. This airmass will not be nearly as cold as in recent weeks with 850mb temps forecast to drop toward -8 to -12C. Limited moisture will likely just result in scattered snow showers/flurries off Lake Michigan. The influence of this upper low will hold temps a little below early/mid February averages through the end of the work week, but warmer than the arctic air which has impacted the region for much of the last several weeks.

MARINE

Light and variable winds this morning reorganize out of the south- southeast by tonight as a diffuse high pressure center drifts across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Tightening gradient leads to a strengthening wind field through the day Monday, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 knots over the open waters of Lake Huron. This occurs in advance of the next low and its attendant arctic front which track across the region Tuesday. Gusty northwest flow develops in the post-frontal portion of this low Tuesday into Wednesday. Periods of snow also expected Monday night through mid-week, especially for northern portions of Lake Huron.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

AVIATION...

VFR through the period is maintained by very dry boundary layer air within broad surface high pressure as it slides across Lower Mi. It extends from northern Ontario into the Ohio valley and is in good position to guard against movement of low level lake clouds into the region until afternoon. This is when lake cloud layer wind develops an easterly component as high pressure moves eastward allowing some stratocu coverage to move toward the terminal corridor from PTK northward. Plains low pressure also spreads thickening high clouds across the Great Lakes late tonight and during the day which which may show some virga at times. Otherwise, light snow grazes SW Lower Mi in the morning on the way into the Ohio valley leaving dry weather in Lower Mi through the afternoon and Sunday night.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.