textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog this morning dissipates toward noon. - There is a chance for another round of dense fog each of the daybreak periods Saturday through Monday. Any fog that develops is expected to dissipate by 10 am.

- Mild and dry through the middle of next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* Moderate for cigs/vsby below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM late tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

DISCUSSION...

Ridging aloft and at the surface continue to dominate the region and will provide several more days of quiet weather around the Great Lakes. The rex block will remain mostly intact the next couple days before slowly breaking down as the book end troughs break down in favor of a more zonal pattern by the middle of next week.

The last few night fog has been the main concern in the forecast as is usually the case with ridging and flow off the Great Lakes this time of year. Ample moisture with longer cool nights brings areas of fog across the state, heavily influenced by wind direct deciding which locations get the fog and how dense. As the center of the surface drifts southward from southern Quebec toward the east coast of the conus, the surface flow will change from northeasterly to southeasterly today as we become positioned on the west side of the high. The change in flow will lead to the fog likely shifting from the Thumb and Saginaw Valley down to the state line with the flow coming off Lake Erie. Will keep the entry level patchy fog mention in for now and look more at it this afternoon.

The upper level ridge axis will cross the area Saturday night. This will increase the southwesterly flow into the region allowing for a boost in temps Sunday. After slowly moderating upward through the mid 60s to end the week, Sunday could support highs in the 70s for at least part of the area. Looking into next week, a developing low tracking across Canada looks to send a weak backdoor cold front into the region. The airmass is very dry with ridging across the SW conus blocking any moisture return, the front will offer some cooler temps as 850mb temps fall from the upper single digits C, down to just above 0C behind the front with the next surface ridge.

MARINE...

High pressure centered over Quebec migrates south into New England today. Light easterly winds generally hold AOB 10 knots over the central Great Lakes, veering southeasterly by this afternoon. Winds then turn southerly over the weekend with a slight uptick in speeds as the surface ridge maintains control from the east. The stretch of tranquil and mainly dry conditions largely continues into next week, although an approaching cold front could briefly stall out over The Straits on Sunday. Should the active front make it to the northern waters of Lake Huron, a few showers would be possible. The decaying front then works across the rest of the basin Sunday night into Monday leading to a northerly wind shift, and perhaps a few opportunities for a stray shower.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MIZ048-049- 053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-083.

Lake Huron...None.

Lake St Clair...None.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.