textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph diminish with sunset this evening.

- Dry weather and mild temperatures hold firm through the week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026

DISCUSSION...

Another outstanding mid October day is in progress across the Great Lakes courtesy of Ohio valley high pressure and a dry cold front entering the upper Midwest. SW wind gusting 20 to 30 mph between these systems, with a full sun assist, is lifting temperatures toward mid 60s highs, a few degrees above normal for Oct 18. Mild and dry air remain inbound this evening until gusts decouple around sunset. A little more wind toward the Ohio border and a little less toward the Tri Cities, compared to last night, create a more uniform field of low temperatures mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. There is a chance for patchy frost in wind sheltered areas through sunrise Monday.

More of the same pleasant fall weather is on tap during Monday through mid week as a maturing split flow upper air configuration favors a ridge centered on the Midwest and Great Lakes. The northern stream Hudson Bay low also leaves the Midwest cold front to dissipate in the northern Lakes in favor of reinforced high pressure through Tuesday. Extension of the warming trend is the weather highlight with strong support across model guidance. Highs in the mid to upper 60s are only held in check by weaker SW flow/warm advection Monday shifting to light easterly Tuesday.

The warming trend peaks Wednesday as highs near 70 are reachable in a low level wind field that returns SW ahead of the next northern stream cold front. This front approaches the northern Great Lakes Wednesday night and has a chance to settle into southern Lower Mi Thursday. Model consensus illustrates a moisture-starved boundary capable of a cloud increase but minimal potential for rain before the front dissipates in favor of slightly cooler high pressure heading into next weekend.

MARINE...

Gusty southwest wind continues through this evening as we sit between high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and deep low pressure over Hudson Bay. Observations across the area align with latest forecast information showing gusts of 20 to 30 kt over Lake Huron. A slight uptick in wind magnitude is expected through the rest of the afternoon as mixing depths reach their peak, but low-level stability is still expected to hold the highest momentum aloft. 50% probability exists for gusts to reach 35 kt gales at times in the longer fetch from Outer Saginaw Bay to central Lake Huron through midnight. Any gales are not expected to be continuous enough to warrant a Gale Warning. Wind then begins to subside overnight as the gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. This ridge stalls across the area bringing tranquil marine weather at least through the middle of the week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.