textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with plentiful sunshine continues through mid week.

- Near normal temperatures early week become warmer and much more humid into next weekend. - The next chance of rain develops Friday and continues through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Near normal temperatures today to start meteorological summer as ample solar insolation is partially offset by cooler northeasterly winds off Lake Huron. Omega block pattern remains in place across the central/eastern CONUS with surface high pressure slowly drifting over the Great Lakes through midweek. As such, largely a persistence forecast into Thursday with continuing active subsidence and dry resident airmass promoting sunny or mostly sunny skies each day and only a modest afternoon breeze. The ridge axis gradually crossing the central Great Lakes leads to a steady couple degree warming trend each day with upper 70s early this week increasing to mid 80s by Thursday.

Blocking pattern fully breaks down by Friday as breezier southwesterly return flow develops. The richer theta-e airmass currently confined to the Plains is eventually folded, at least partially, into southern lower MI with the eastward release of the Rockies closed low. While rain chances increase during the day Friday with the arrival of upper 50 dewpoints, better potential is favored Friday night-Saturday when the Midwestern baroclinic zone shifts over the region. Exactly how progressive this feature is still unclear this far out however. There is a subset long range model solutions beginning to advertise the development of a closed low somewhere over the Midwest/Great Lakes stalling the baroclinic zone near or over SE MI.

MARINE

Northeast flow has emerged across the Great Lakes today, with locally enhanced flow along the fetch of Saginaw Bay where gusts will peak around 25 knots this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Inner Saginaw Bay. High pressure then builds south from Ontario, ensuring a stretch of dry and quiet marine weather through most of the week. The high eventually breaks down Friday into this weekend bringing the next chance for showers and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

AVIATION...

High pressure strengthening over the northern Great Lakes is causing a surge of dense marine air to spread south and west off the Great Lakes. The result will be an uptick in onshore wind this afternoon, especially at KMBS where northeast flow will funnel down Saginaw Bay and produce gusts to 25 kt. Wind magnitude will be markedly lower elsewhere. Wind direction at KDTW will primarily hold an easterly component, but with fluctuations owing to competing influence from Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair the rest of the day. Enough moisture pooling ahead of this marine air should be sufficient to produce SCT to BKN high based cumulus mainly south of KFNT for a several hours before sunset. Wind speed then relaxes this evening and remains light from the northeast overnight with SKC expected. These conditions prevail into early Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the north.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms through Tuesday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ422.

Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.