textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy and mild today and Tuesday. Near record high temperatures Tuesday.

- Mild conditions continue Wednesday with increasing potential for light rain.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* High in ceilings aob 5000 ft early afternoon and evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

DISCUSSION...

Initial stages of a more significant period of increasing upper heights expected over the next 48 hours will occur today, as shortwave energy overhead this morning vacates the region. Some pockets of very light showers or virga evident on radar associated with this wave and accompanying deeper mid level moisture will also end. Organizing low pressure system as substantial height falls occur across the plains will then draw a warm frontal boundary across the region late today into tonight. Overall, moisture quality remains quite limited despite some increase across the lower levels, suggesting simply a lower end potential again for some spotty light showers/sprinkles as broader ascent occurs along the advancing frontal slope. Otherwise, main story early this week remains the perpetuation of very mild conditions held under this pattern. The elevated mean thickness field combined with a strengthening pattern of warm air advection maintains above average temperatures thru at least Wednesday. Warmest conditions expected Tuesday, with a peak in the advective process within deepening southwest flow ensuring 850 mb temperatures push into the lower teens. This will bring afternoon temperature to near record levels, with highs solidly in the mid 70s. Potential for minimum temperature Tuesday night to hold in the 60s.

Closed upper level circulation will gradually lift into the upper Missisippi valley midweek. This will draw an attendant lead cold front through lower Michigan Wednesday evening. Period of stronger moisture transport as greater height falls edge into the region ahead of the front, along with possible shortwave energy embedded within the flow, will bring increasing potential for light shower production during the daylight period. Frontal passage will provide a secondary focus by late in the day. Outgoing forecast maintains a high likelihood for light rain, but with rainfall totals generally under quarter of an inch as the best forcing holds to the northwest while more meaningful instability holds across the Ohio valley.

Occluding low pressure system centered over lake Superior at 12z Thur morning will continue to weaken as the entire circulation pivots across the region through Friday. Generally milder conditions remain within the immediate post-frontal environment Thursday, before the cooling trend brings a more seasonable thermal profile by Friday and next weekend. General increasing in upward vertical motion as the upper trough pivots through will maintain at least lower chances for light rain development during this time.

MARINE...

Low pressure coming out of the Four Corners region will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes late Tuesday. This will lead to increasing southerly winds over the central Great Lakes, with gusts of 25 to 30 knots expected over the open waters of Lake Huron Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm air (lower teens at 850 MB) should keep mixing depths in check, but brief isolated gusts above 30 knots cab not be ruled. Enough moisture is expected to advect into the Great Lakes region to support widespread showers on Wednesday. Additional scattered showers are possible on Thursday as cold cyclonic flow behind the cold front kicks in. The low pressure looks to weaken as it tracks across Lake Superior and the Upper Peninsula on Thursday. This should result in northwest to north winds staying under 25 knots Thursday night onto Friday. However, with the long northerly fetch and cold air, waves building to 4 feet or greater over the southern lake Huron basin are likely.

CLIMATE...

Record high max temperatures for November 3rd:

Detroit: 76 Degrees (Set in 2015) Flint: 79 Degrees (Set in 2015) Saginaw: 74 Degrees (Set in 2015)

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.