textproduct: Detroit/Pontiac

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated shower is possible Thursday afternoon, then drier and less humid conditions are expected through Friday and Saturday.

- A warming trend brings above normal temperatures early next week.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

DISCUSSION...

A couple of thunderstorm clusters have developed over western Lower Michigan this afternoon along a continuous line of agitated cumulus that stretches from northern MI back toward central Illinois. The trend so far has been for cells to be short-lived as they move off the boundary and away from the instability axis, which is anchored closely to the cold front itself. Local cloud trends are quite stable still, reflecting remnants of the 850-600mb stable layer that was sampled in the 12z KDTX sounding.

Expectations for the afternoon-evening are still largely on track where coverage increases to become a broken line of showers and storms. Any deeper convective growth is likely confined to a window of about 4pm-9pm as moisture convergence sweeps through ahead of the front and overlaps with weakening shear profiles. The lack of deep layer shear favors a pulsey/multicellular nature rather than strong cold pool organization, meaning isolated downburst and hail potential as cores collapse. Given the environment, higher confidence in a strong-severe storm exists near the Ohio border where instability is greatest although all of SE MI is in at least a Marginal Risk for severe weather. Veered south/southwest flow is generally less favorable for the streamwise vorticity needed for tornadoes with a west-east mean wind. That said, there has been weak mid-level rotation noted upstream so cannot rule out supercellular structures, mainly early on as shear is at its peak.

The cold front sweeps through late this evening, bringing an end to thunderstorm chances overnight. A quieter pattern then develops Thursday into the weekend as surface high pressure fills in post cold front. Northwest flow and return of thermal troughing take advantage of warmer lake temperatures to generate partial coverage of stratocumulus Thursday, which could squeeze out low-topped shower activity. Moisture availability then wanes Friday into the weekend as the high drifts overhead, with winds then shifting to the southwest by Saturday in response. Dry conditions thus expected. Coolest high temperatures of the period expected Thursday-Friday as h8 temperatures drop into the lower teens across Lower MI, equating to highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 50s.

The emergence of SW flow Saturday then kicks off a warming trend that peaks early next week. GFS and Euro MOS guidance are in line with the extended NBM, projecting high temperatures near 90 degrees Monday-Tuesday. This pairs with a gulf connection where moisture transport is accelerated Sunday through Tuesday as low level jet winds increase to 30-35 knots. This establishes breezy southwest flow (~25 to 30 mph) during peak heating each day, as well as an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances across the Great Lakes.

MARINE...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms work across the area this evening in advance of an approaching cold front. An isolated strong wind gust is possible particularly towards the southern Great Lakes. Cold front eventually crosses the region late evening-tonight flipping around winds to the NW for Thursday. Moderate cool advection follows with peak gusts between 20-25kts over the northern portions of Lake Huron daytime Thursday before high pressure begins to build in. Said high then drifts overhead Friday and Saturday.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.