textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Today, thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable of producing heavy rain, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes, especially areas east of I-35. Please remain weather aware, and never drive through flood waters.

- This weekend, drying out with additional rain chances Tuesday and Wendesday.

- Late next week, cooler temperatures arrive for Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

TODAY...Thunderstorms capable of heavy rain, damaging wind, and event a few tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening. Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery shows storms across much of the region as of 2PM. For the rest of today, multiple rounds of storms could lead to heavy rain and flooding. There is also a severe weather threat with these storms, with damaging wind and a few tornadoes being the primary threat.

A weak surface low was centered across southern Iowa, with southeast winds ahead of it.Temperautres were in the mid 80s, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. This warm and unstable airmass will be the main driver for thunderstorms today, while upstream an upper level wave along the IA/NE border will provide the forcing for ascent.

The main question will be how long storms will be discrete in the warm sector, vs how quickly they will grow upscale into a line. This is one of the key factors for whether or not tornadoes or damaging wind will be the primary threat. Even if storms do develop into a line, the low level shear could support QLCS tornadoes, so have a Tornado Watch in effect for mainly the Southeast part of Iowa, including the Des Moines metro. North of this, a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect, where confidence is higher in a wind and/or hail threat.

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rain is also a concern given the PWAT values near or above 2 inches. Training storms along an ill-defined warm front could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches, with a few pockets close to 4 inches based on the local probability matched mean of the HREF.

SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Storms will move east tonight, and the weather will dry out over the weekend and into early next week. The next chance for storms will be Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. A few storms could be strong to severe, but as of now there isn't a signal that this will be anything noteworthy. Looking ahead, if the cold front is able to push through, temperatures will cool off toward the end of week, with highs closer to 80s. If it hangs up across the region, then expect continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Challenging period with near term concerns around dying showers and storms, which could impact FOD and MCW at the start of the period. Thereafter, low ceiling and visibility restrictions are likely at ALO and OTM with just low ceilings at MCW and DSM to around or shortly after sunrise. Thereafter, expecting diurnal cumulus in lower end VFR to develop mid to late morning, which dissipates around sunset.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.