textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Clearer skies this afternoon with patchy fog developing overnight.

- Above-average temperatures to start the week before a cooling trend mid-week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A surface high-pressure center currently sitting over the Missouri/Illinois border is yielding southwesterly winds gusting to 15-20 mph alongside clear skies over much of the CWA. A stratus deck, which has now mostly dissipated, is keeping temperatures limited to the mid 40s for portions of central and south-central Iowa, meanwhile areas outside that region have climbed into the 50s. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight again especially within the Iowa river valleys; surface winds of 5-10 mph should limit the fog from becoming widespread. Chances for fog developing nightly look to persist through the short term period.

An upper-level shortwave trough advecting over northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will bring a cold front to the area late tonight. Ensemble guidance is confident that mid-level saturation associated with the frontal passage will be enough for high-based clouds to briefly blanket the region through late morning tomorrow.

Above-average temperatures (mid-60s) will be seen on Monday as surface high-pressure continues to dominate the central and south- central US. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) sits in the 50- 60% range, signaling a moderate departure from normal temperatures for this time of year. The warm-air advection associated with this warming trend will allow for breezy conditions on Monday as well.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Warmer temperatures only look to last through Tuesday as ensemble guidance signals a longwave trough expanding over the eastern US later this week. Surface low-pressure associated with this trough will shift winds to become northerly, and with that, ample cold-air advection. Nocturnal radiative cooling and relatively clear skies could allow overnight low temperatures for the second half of the week to fall below freezing. Much of the area is expected to remain dry through the week, but shortwaves associated with the changing weather pattern may induce periods of additional cloud cover and low chances for precipitation (10-20%).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A stratus deck situated over and south of KDSM will slowly dissipate over the next few hours. Winds this afternoon will be out of the southwest at 10-15 kts and relaxing through 0z. A frontal boundary advecting from the northwest early tomorrow morning will result in winds become westerly/northwesterly. Additional high-based cloud cover may be associated with this passing front, but despite this, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.