textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm today and Tuesday with highs through the 40s and into the 50s southwest.

- Cooler and windy Wednesday, though generally remaining dry.

- Chances (40-60%) for snow Thursday and Friday, followed by a cold weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Quiet weather conditions prevail this morning to start the work week, with high pressure covering much of the CONUS, though one weak shortwave is indicated over the Great Lakes generating some light precipitation in that area. Southwest flow continues to cover much of Iowa, along with high clouds overhead leading to relatively mild overnight temperatures in the mid 20s to low 30s. The building thermal ridge over the large area of circulating high pressure in the western CONUS will be responsible for keeping conditions dry and warmer for the start of the work week. Southwesterly winds under mostly clear skies today will allow for highs to increase through the mid 40s to low 50s, warmest southwest.

Into Tuesday morning, an area of surface low pressure remains signaled per guidance to drop southeast into the Upper Midwest and pass across the region through the day. Trends continue to show the greater majority of forcing for lift and moisture present further east and north in relation to the proximity of this system, so overall precipitation chances for Iowa are low at this time. A weak boundary passing through during the morning will shift winds from southwest to west, with warm air remaining overhead given the influence of the thermal ridge, which will allow for highs to reach through the 40s and even 50s further south and west. There is a non- zero chance per guidance for weak surface convergence to set up over far southern Iowa/northern Missouri in the evening that may try and generate some light rain showers, though some indication of dry air in the low levels looks to limit any potential. Otherwise, winds do gradually turn breezy through the day with gusts up to 25-30 mph, isolated to 35 mph in northern Iowa. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the elevated cold front arrives into Iowa where the cold air advection is expected to sink down and increase winds on the backside of the departing low pressure tracking into the northeastern CONUS. North/northwest winds gusting up to 25-35+ mph are expected, with highest gusts Wednesday morning. The presence of dry air gradually sinking across the state and subsidence should keep any precipitation chances very low. The push of cooler and drier air will result in temperatures to be about 20 degrees colder with highs in the low 20s to low 30s, warmest south. Surface high pressure dropping in from Canada behind the departing system late Wednesday afternoon to evening will allow for the winds to decrease and dry conditions to prevail at least into Thursday.

The pattern remains disturbed as yet another wave to the north tries to descend into the Upper Midwest Thursday, with long range models still showing a cold front in relation to an area of low pressure in Canada extending down into Iowa Thursday afternoon/evening. This is then followed by the arrival of the deformation zone into Friday that continues to hold the highest potential (40-60%) for snow into Iowa through the current forecast period given much better moisture presence, though better forcing looks to be further north and east out of Iowa. Will certainly be monitoring this system through the week, with details becoming clearer over the next several forecast cycles. Much cooler air follows into the weekend, with forecast highs in the teens to 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to remain across the terminals through the period. High clouds are expected to pass overhead, with winds out of the west to southwest gradually increasing into this evening and Tuesday, gusting up to 15-20 knots. LLWS is also expected across all sites from 06z through the rest of the period.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.