textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record highs Friday and Saturday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in the southwest Saturday.

- Brief cooldown Sunday and Monday before temperatures recover to above average.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Continuing to chase high temperatures this afternoon with the 90th percentile of guidance closer to expectations this afternoon. Temperatures at noon in far southern Iowa were already in the 80s. Have adjusted towards NBM 90th for highs today and Saturday. Record highs both this afternoon and tomorrow will be challenged. Have continued to lower Tds as they have underperformed in the well-mixed environment. Tds this afternoon dropped into the mid to upper 30s, a precursor to the dryness expected tomorrow. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected tomorrow as RHs drop into the teens in the southwest. The low-level wind field is weak enough to keep gusts under 30mph, hence the refrain from a Red Flag Warning for now.

A front will arrive Sunday morning and has trended more dry, so confidence remains low (<10%) for any precipitation. Cloudiness and CAA will accompany the front with temperatures dropping during the day Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Mild temperatures continue on Monday before thermal ridging begins to build in from the west again through the middle of next week. A zonal flow pattern aloft will have multiple waves of energy passing through it during the week. Should enough moisture be available to any of these, we could see some chances at precipitation develop through the week. That said, there is little agreement among guidance on any of these waves, so the forecast remains primarily dry through the first half of the week. A more prominent trough then passes through the northern US during the second half of next week toward the end of this forecast cycle, which models seem to be in better agreement on. That said, what this system means for our area still remains uncertain, so will continue to monitor through the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 611 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

There is high confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Winds will become light and turn clockwise becoming from a southerly direction by sunrise Saturday. Winds will increase to around or above 12 knots by late morning into the afternoon hours before diminishing by sunset.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Forecast and Record Highs for Select Central Iowa Cities...

==================================================================== | Today | Saturday | Period | Forecast Record/ | Forecast Record/ | of City | High Year | High Year | Record ==================================================================== Des Moines 80 79/1938 88 86/1938 1878- Mason City 67 73/1934 79 81/1938 1903- Ottumwa 77 78/1938 86 86/1938 1923- Waterloo 72 75/1918 81 83/1938 1895- ====================================================================

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.