textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Northwest breezes diminishing this evening, with cooler temperatures forecast tonight into Saturday.

- Notably warmer Sunday and especially Monday, when temperatures will climb into the 60s across central and southwestern Iowa.

- Relatively cooler in the latter half of next week with daily highs in the 30s/40s, and persistent but low (20-30%) precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

In wake of the cool front that surged across Iowa early this morning, a large high pressure area is currently building into the northern Great Plains and Upper Midwest, and will slide by to our northeast across Minnesota and Wisconsin tonight and Saturday. As a result, the gusty northwest winds currently affecting our area will gradually diminish this evening and tonight, then become variable and turn to south southeast by Saturday. In this scenario the temperature forecast overnight is problematic. Cold air advection will shut off as the winds diminish, and the center of the high pressure area will remain far enough to our northeast that winds may not go calm. Concurrently, the stratus deck currently eroding across Iowa should continue to break up this evening as our flow weakens, but some solutions attempt to redevelop the clouds to some extent overnight, and forecast soundings do show the persistence of a very shallow but persistent near-saturated layer. Nevertheless, recent satellite imagery trends favor continuing erosion and mostly clear skies overnight, so if winds do manage to go calm later then radiative cooling will cause temperatures to fall quickly overnight. For now have only nudged the low temperature forecast downward a bit as it is more likely that winds stay just organized enough to mitigate the radiational cooling, however adjustments may be needed based on near-term observational trends tonight.

From Saturday through Monday modest thermal ridging will attempt to build overhead, being briefly interrupted by a weak mid-level shortwave moving through late Saturday night into Sunday. Despite this, a gradual and steady warm advection trend aloft will also translate to the surface each day. On Monday the axis of the ridge will be overhead, skies will be sunny, and low-level flow will be moderate from the south southwest. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure trough will be present over the High Plains, with an affective warm front stretching eastward from the trough somewhere near the Iowa/Minnesota border. This setup is very conducive to warming, with the only limiting factor seeming to be the modest near-surface flow and mixing depth. Nevertheless, temperatures should soar into the lower 60s in our central and southwestern counties, and into the 50s across most of the remainder of our forecast area. The daily record high of 61 will be threatened at Des Moines, but at most other sites the records appear to be safe unless temperatures significantly overachieve the current forecast. Regardless, Monday will be the most pleasant day in quite some time for most outdoor interests and, dare we say it, provide just a little taste of the Spring weather that will eventually come.

From Tuesday onward a more or less zonal flow regime will set up at 500 MB, with multiple perturbations moving through the flow. The first of these will push the aforementioned High Plains trough eastward across Iowa around late Monday night/Tuesday and end the warm weather, but even thereafter temperatures will remain moderate for much of next week with daily highs generally in the upper 30s to 40s from Wednesday through next Friday. Low (20-30%) precipitation chances are also forecast during this time frame, but overall given the relatively weak and transient nature of the forcing mechanisms in play, the temporal coverage and magnitude of precipitation potential is relatively low. The most likely impacts, if any, would be from any light snow or freezing precipitation affecting roads but even that threat seems limited for now. Obviously the predictability of such features in zonal flow at this forecast range is not high, so stay tuned for forecast updates in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions to prevail with winds becoming southerly after 12z. Gusts up to 20kts will be common across the north after 18z, tapering after 00z.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The forecast warm-up over the next week has led to questions about ice jam potential especially in light of the flood watch related to ice jams issued by NWS Omaha. Below are some key points.

* Bottom line up front: the current weather forecast as well as our service area ice jam climatology suggest a MINIMAL risk of river flooding from break-up ice jams over the next week or so.

* According to USGS field crew measurements, river ice thicknesses on many of our service areas streams are around 0.5 to 1 ft. Those values are around or above normal for this time of year.

* Unlike eastern Nebraska, we typically need seasonally moderate to heavy rainfall in conjunction with a warm-up to have flooding issues from ice jams. (Eastern Nebraska can see flooding from break-up ice jams from warm-ups alone, hence the flood watch there.)

* Our climatological peak of river flooding from break-up ice jams is early to mid-March. We have seen flooding from break- up jams in January and February, however the majority of it has occurred in March.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.