textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through tonight. A few areas of fog/drizzle possible over central and northern Iowa.

- Numerous chances for thunderstorms through much of next week. Severe weather will be possible at times.

- Very mild through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

High pressure across the central Great Lakes and a broad area of low pressure along the Lee side of the Rockies has led to southerly flow across a large part of the central and south central CONUS. A steady stream of deep layer moisture is streaming north from the Gulf with PWAT values approaching 1.5 inches, which climatologically for April, is quite high. In the near term, a warm front is lifting north through central Kansas and will lift north across Iowa overnight. A few surface based thunderstorms are possible over southern Nebraska and northern Missouri as the boundary moves into that area later this afternoon. There remains a low chance that a strong storm or two reaches southwest Iowa into the evening. Otherwise for the rest of today, a few storms will move across southern to central Iowa this afternoon then there will likely be a lull until later tonight as some mid-level drying occurs. A few areas of drizzle and perhaps fog may develop ahead of the warm front. Otherwise, limited thunderstorm activity this evening with chances increasing again after midnight as the next wave of theta-e advection and an increasing low level jet arrive.

Temperatures will slowly rise most of the night in response to the warm front as increasing surface dewpoints rising into the 50s to near 60 arriving. Gusty winds with a few gusts to near 40 mph are possible Sunday morning. There is a chance the wind may approach advisory criteria and will continue to monitor.

Several periods with thunderstorms remain possible Sunday and Monday though areas of focus are becoming better defined. Drier air along with and increasing elevated mixed layer (EML) will move into the northwest Iowa on Sunday. Deeper saturation and instability is expected from central to southeast Iowa. A few strong storms are possible with quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds possible. Another surge of strong theta-e advection lifts north Sunday night though by this time, the EML will be quite stout and while there is some chance for elevated convection above the EML to form, the moisture availability within that layer is marginal at best for convective development. The EML will keep much of the area dry early Monday. Strong to severe storms will be possible mid to late afternoon and into the evening in vicinity of the warm front which may be well into Minnesota at that time and along a cold front moving into western Iowa. Will give higher resolution details on severe weather chances as these events near. At this point, each successive potential round of storms becomes more difficult to predict due to environmental implications from previous convection and boundary placement. High temperatures Sunday will be in the 60s and 70s and in the 70s and 80s for Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Mild conditions with numerous chances for thunderstorms expected through the period. Southwest flow aloft will persist Tuesday and Wednesday with the warm front and instability axis meandering across the region. Timing and position of the upper level short wave on Wednesday in particular could lead to severe weather and tornadic potential. Perhaps a break in the thunderstorm chances early Thursday before the southwest flow becomes re-established as a long wave trough carves out across the western CONUS. This system may bring another round of strong storms by around Friday. It will feel very much like late spring much of this week with highs in the 70s and 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Cooler weather is expected by Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

IFR cigs are affecting northern terminals in the short term. Have adjusted precipitation groups overnight to account for when thunderstorm complex in Nebraska reaches the state, main trend being an earlier arrival time. Monitoring closely for fog development early in the period for KFOD, but confidence was more in drizzle and IFR stratus. Will amend as necessary. LLWS expected at all sites overnight, lasting beyond sunrise. Gusty southerly winds will follow with 30kt gusts common in the north. Rain chances <30% linger between 12 and 20z with thunderstorm chances increasing after that time period, mainly in the east. A break from vsby restrictions will be achieved for a time for southern terminals before MVFR and local IFR return through the morning hours. Widespread MVFR and localized IFR return with the afternoon rain chances.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.