textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions on Sunday with warmer, drier conditions and breezy southwesterly winds. Gusts over 30 mph possible at times.

- Warm temperatures continue into Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Precipitation returns to the state late Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain and thunderstorms possible south with wintry precipitation possible farther north and west.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Remnant post-frontal stratus clouds continue to produce overcast skies over much of Iowa early this afternoon, but are steadily eroding from west to east. As is often the case with stratus, these clouds have hung on longer than the models progged them to, which has kept temperatures a bit cooler than forecast. That said, skies have begun to clear out over western into central Iowa and sunshine should return before sunset for most of central Iowa. Mostly clear skies should persist through the night, with just a few mid- to upper- level clouds grazing the state, especially across northern Iowa. These clouds will accompany a quick-moving wave passing to our north tonight, which will bring a subtle boundary through the area, resulting in light to breezy winds and a flip to more southwesterly flow overnight.

Quickly looking at the upper levels, a lobe of energy fragmented from the overall troughing that passed through last night has begun to close off and will park itself over the southwest CONUS through the beginning of the work week. This will shut off most of the southern stream through that same period, keeping Iowa under an upper level zonal flow pattern. A few shortwaves will pass through this zonal flow pattern (including tonight's wave mentioned above), but these generally remain north of the state. As a result, conditions Sunday through Monday remain fairly consistent, with warm, dry westerly flow aloft and generally a southwesterly flow at the surface. This setup, in conjunction with mostly clear skies, will be favorable for warm temperatures and efficient mixing. Highs on Sunday look to reach the mid to upper 60s over all of central Iowa. Then, highs on Monday will make a run into the 70s over the southern half of Iowa and 60s in the northern half. With this warm, dry airmass overhead, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop, especially on Sunday afternoon when winds of 15 to 25 mph are expected and gusts over 30 mph are possible. Fire weather concerns will be greatest in areas where less rain fell yesterday, but fuels will still dry out quickly in wetter areas with ample sun and breezy conditions. Forecast minimum relative humidity values stay in the 30 to 40% range, so fire weather headlines don't appear likely at this time, but caution should still be used if burning. THe warm and dry conditions continue on Monday, but winds won't be as strong as on Sunday, which should help to mitigate significant fire weather concerns to start the work week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Our zonal flow pattern begins to break down Tuesday into Wednesday when a more prominent long-wave trough develops over the northwest CONUS. This trough will disrupt the closed low over the southwest CONUS, causing it to eject out ahead of it. These two upper waves will meet and merge over the central US, opening up the spigot as gulf moisture streams northward and takes advantage of the synoptic forcing accompanying the two system. Models are in remarkable agreement on the progression of these two waves and precipitation returning to the state late Tuesday into Wednesday. NBM reflects this confidence, putting a 70 to 80% chance of precipitation over southern and eastern Iowa on Wednesday morning and roughly a 40 to 50% chance over the rest of the state. Based on the current progression in guidance (which is also in fairly good agreement right now), the low passes over the southeastern corner of the state. This will keep southern Iowa in the warm, moist air, favoring rain and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe as indicated by the day 4 15% severe weather probability from the Storm Prediction Center that is now clipping southeastern Iowa. Areas to the north of the surface low will be in the cooler, drier air, favoring a cold rain and/or wintry precipitation. This colder, drier side is where guidance generally diverges in QPF and extent of precipitation, hence the differences in NBM probabilities farther north and west compared to probabilities near the low in southern and eastern Iowa. The path of this surface low and the interaction between the two upper waves will greatly dictate the precipitation type and weather that occurs across the state, and with 3 to 4 days out still, the progression can, and likely will, change. Therefore not going to dive too much more into specifics at this time, but confidence is fairly high for more precipitation returning to the state Tuesday into Wednesday. Cooler air fills in behind the system Wednesday into Thursday, bringing milder temperatures to the area. Another clipper-like system then drops through the Great Lakes region to end the week, potentially bringing more precipitation to at least the northern portions of the area Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds have shifted this evening to out of the south - southwest. Overnight LLWS is anticipated across all sites with a strong low level jet increasing over the state. This will diminish in the morning, giving way to breezy winds at the surface. Afternoon winds will gust 20-25+ kts across all sites on Sunday.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.