textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of snow will affect southern Minnesota and far northern and northeastern Iowa today. Light snow accumulations are forecast in our far northern counties, but significant travel impacts are likely to remain just to the north in Minnesota.

- Wintry precipitation continues to trend southward later Sunday into early Monday, with only light snow amounts expected in southern Iowa during this time.

- Milder into next week with several rounds of precipitation chances possible, mainly in the form of rain accompanied by thunder at times.

UPDATE

Issued at 213 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

The snow band currently developing over South Dakota early this morning is still expected to translate across southern Minnesota and into Wisconsin and far northeastern Iowa later today, just scraping the far northern and northeastern fringes of our service area this morning into the early afternoon. Little change has been made to the ongoing forecast in this regard, with potential remaining for a quick 1-2 inches of accumulation near the Minnesota border, or roughly north of a line from around Estherville to Mason City. Minor travel impacts may occur in this area, but more significant impacts will remain farther north in Minnesota.

On Sunday into Monday a large region of isentropic lift and associated precipitation is slated to affect the lower Midwest, spreading primarily across eastern Kansas, through Missouri, and into the Ohio River valley. Over the last several days to a week there has been a high degree of variability in solutions for the northward extent of the precipitation shield, which in Iowa will be fighting against undercutting dry air entrainment from a large surface high pressure area sliding by to our northeast. Over the last 24 hours or so, however, the guidance envelope has come into better consensus in accounting for this northern intrusion and shunting most of the precipitation to our south across Missouri. Even the ECMWF, which had been the most stalwart holdout in a more northern solution, has with the latest 00Z run now shifted southward and only paints light snow across far southern Iowa. Have continued the trend of reducing POPs southward in the official forecast, which now advertises only very light snow amounts south of Interstate 80 in Iowa, up to around an inch near the Missouri border. Impacts should again be minimal, given the light nature of the snow and without substantial wind/blowing anticipated.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough spinning into the Quebec province early this afternoon. Attached to this trough is a surface cold front approaching Iowa from the northwest. Ahead of this front, there has been a surface trough that has moved through Iowa and is denoted by the wind shift from southwesterly to more westerly. The inversion that was present earlier today has mixed out, which has allow for gustier winds as well as some drier air to reach the surface in snow free areas. For these areas, temperatures have soared well into the 60s while making a run into the low 70s in parts of southern Iowa. The mixed out, gustier winds has resulted in Red Flag Criteria observations at both Estherville and Algona in the last two hours. Thus, in coordination with Sioux Falls, have expanded the warning into parts of north central and all of northwest Iowa. For southern Iowa, the Red Flag Warning remains on track with lower RHs paired with breezy winds. For the snow pack areas, various GOES-East RGB imagery (e.g. Day Cloud Phase Distinction, Day Snow Fog, Blowing Snow) depict the deeper snowpack over central Iowa east of I-35 into northeastern Iowa. This is causing temperatures to hold largely in the 40s to low 50s.

We quickly transition from red flag conditions as winds ease tonight and RHs recover to winter weather. Shortwave energy moving in the northwesterly flow will reach Iowa towards Saturday morning with an area of QG convergence and low level theta-e advection accompanying this energy. A band of frontogenetical forcing will be dropping through the Dakotas into the Driftless Region, which may skim northern Iowa. The trend has been for the resultant snow band to be near if not just north of Iowa, where surrounding offices have issued Winter Weather Advisories. The snowfall in our far northern Iowa forecast area looks to be around or under an inch. As this scoots away Saturday afternoon, a piece of shortwave energy will break off from a central West Coast shortwave trough and move towards the region. Ahead of this energy, isentropic ascent in the 295-300K layer will try to saturate the atmosphere over Iowa. However, a 1036mb high passing into the Great Lakes Sunday looks to funnel drier air into the low levels. Outside of the Canadian, models are focusing much of the precipitation south of the state. The latest trend in the ECMWF and AIFS is now southward in the latest run compared to last night's run. Thus, not surprising to see the latest forecast powered by the initial National Blend of Models (NBM) has trended PoPs southward with any given location seeing a decrease of 10 to 20%. Still think the PoPs and snowfall is a bit too far north into central and northern Iowa so expect that the northern edge will trend southward over the next 36 hours or so in the forecast data.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

After Monday, the remainder of the week looks active with multiple precipitation chances as shortwave troughs track into and through the region with conditions turning milder with above normal temperatures. Ahead of these shortwaves, there will be warm air advection and moisture transport such that much of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain. In addition and depending on the track of surface lows, instability will works its way into at least southern and/or eastern parts of the state with sufficient deep layer shear. Therefore, chances for thunderstorms look increasingly likely with machine learning and artificial intelligence guidance pointing to low (<5%) severe probabilities entering portions of Iowa.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Low clouds have spread over portions of northern Iowa as a band of snow over southern Minnesota passes through, which has lead to some periods of snow mainly at KMCW and MVFR conditions given low ceilings. Low ceilings remain possible mainly at KMCW through this evening, with low clouds at/near KFOD and KALO into the evening as well leading to potential periods of MVFR conditions, though lower confidence at this time and will monitor trends. Otherwise expecting VFR conditions to return for all areas later tonight and through Sunday, though mid-level cloud coverage increases through the day. Winds will remain east/northeasterly through the period, with speeds generally up to 10-15 knots.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.