textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Very low chance (<15%) of precipitation in the northeast Thursday morning.

- Breezy conditions Friday morning with gusts up to 40mph possible, especially in the north.

- Above average temperatures in much of the forecast, peaking on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Overcast skies covered much of the state today, its stagnation caused by a surface high centered overhead. A weak wave will take its place later tonight and yield breezy southwest flow Thursday morning. This will also be the catalyst for more WAA. Highs will be in the 40s and even 50s for the southern and western parts of Iowa. The wave will be accompanied by Pacific moisture, but its phasing with low-level moisture is better to the northeast. CAMs simulate reflectivity along the base of the surface pressure trough, but their soundings have enough low-level dry air that confidence in accumulations are low. The best chance will be for places like Mason City and Waterloo.

A frontal passage will arrive sometime late Thursday night/Friday morning and increase wind speed. Winds at the top of the mixed layer reach 40kts in NAM profiles, which presents better mixing than the GFS at this time. Still siding with more efficient mixing and using NBM 90th percentile winds for much of Friday, the highest winds occurring in the morning. Post-frontal profiles remain mixed and unstable on Friday, meaning there could be some HCR showers, mainly in the north where CAA is the most pronounced. Southern Iowa will still recover into the 40s by the afternoon.

As the upper level ridge continues to build in the western CONUS this weekend, Iowa will see less activity from the northwest flow and more influence from the thermal ridge. We'll need to watch a clipper system that arrives late Saturday, noting though that its moisture axis is to the northeast of the area. In the extended, a Rex Block sets up beneath the ridge. Temperatures in the 50s (even approaching 60!) will be possible early next week, but will then be eroded by the southerly flow once the blocking pattern starts to break down. This is why broad low PoPs (<=30%) cover the area Tuesday and onward.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR stratus covering much of the north and west and will gradually move east through the afternoon and evening hours. A window of IFR will be possible for KMCW in the next 4-6 hours so left a SCT008 to reflect this possibility. A wind shift will occur close to 06z, becoming southwesterly. They'll increase and gradually shift back to the northwest from 12z-18z area-wide, prevailing right at the end of the TAF period. Monitoring the potential for precipitation for KMCW and KALO from 08z-13z, but confidence is low (<15%) for now.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.