textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms continue this morning mainly east of I-35. Pockets of heavy rain remain possible and could lead to renewed flooding, especially in areas that have already received heavy rain in the last few days.

- An active week ahead with a larger system bringing strong to severe storms to the area Tuesday through Thursday. Strongest storms are expected on Wednesday.

- Warm and humid conditions through the first half of the week with many areas reaching 90 degrees, then cooling back to the low 80s to finish the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 334 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Upper level trough continues to lift across Iowa and surrounding area early this morning as it heads for the Great Lakes region this afternoon into tonight. Scattered showers and a few occasional thunderstorms, which are mainly in eastern Iowa early this morning, continue to rotate through portions of the area with the bulk of the rain expected to remain near to east of I-35 with the highest totals over southeast into east central Iowa. Since midnight, rain totals in our southeast have been around 0.15-0.75 with higher amounts to the east of our area. Although storm motions are fairly progressive, with pwats near 2" and many areas in southern Iowa saturated from recent rainfall, we'll be keeping a close eye on any potential flooding. A Flood Watch is in place for portions of our southeast which is portions of south central into east central Iowa. The rain will linger in our eastern counties longest this morning with most rain ending by early afternoon. Cloud cover will be slow to erode west to east today but where clearing begins to occur in the west temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 80s while areas to the east remain cooler with the rain and cloud cover holding on longer, keeping temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. It will feel even hotter, though, with high dew points sending feel-like temperatures into the 90s in the west and mid to upper 80s most everywhere else.

Once the rain ends in the east late this morning/early afternoon, largely dry conditions follow through the rest of the day. At this time yesterday, models were in somewhat decent agreement of a decaying MCS reaching some portion of the area late tonight into Tuesday morning. This agreement no longer exists. Many models no longer have a MCS, and those that do vary in location from dropping south out of NE into northern MO and completely missing us or rapidly decaying but still clipping portions of the west. The overall trend is certainly lower in a MCS impacting some portion of the area into Tuesday morning which is reflected in the mostly dry PoPs tonight into Tuesday. If the dry forecast holds, temperatures Tuesday will surge into the 90s as the heat builds in our return to southwest flow. Gulf moisture also returns in abundance resulting in a deeply unstable environment by Tuesday afternoon. Shear remains on the weaker side until Wednesday and most CAMs hold off on storm development until the jet arrives Tuesday evening, as discussed below, but there is little agreement in when, where, and how strong but some hint at another MCS decaying into Wednesday morning. At this point details on convective development Tuesday remain low and likely dependent on mesoscale details with the stronger environment and greatest storm chances of the week on Wednesday, as discussed further below. Will have to continue to watch the hydro threat with any storms this week, especially over southern Iowa, as discussed the last several days, given the highly saturated soils.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The low level jet strengthens Tuesday evening, nosing into western Iowa. This may allow for renewed convection along a lingering outflow from and morning MCS remnants that pass across Iowa earlier in the day. The overall severe threat Tuesday night appears low, however an elevated hailer or gusty wind is possible.

By Wednesday and upper level trough that has been building across the western US will swing into the midwest. With it, a return of deep layer shear that has been lacking in the current flow regime. That will help to organize storms and increase severe storm potential on Wednesday. Right now the associated surface low is set to track across central Minnesota with trailing cold front passing across Iowa on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The environment is deeply unstable ahead of the boundary with 3500-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Better shear lags the front, though 35-40 kts of 0-6 km shear will still be available and sufficient for severe storms. With good shear, deep instability, and well curved hodographs, all modes of severe weather appear possible on Wednesday. Details will be further refined as it approaches.

The boundary reaches far eastern Iowa with lingering severe chances there on Thursday. Temperatures cool behind the front with highs back to the low 80s to finish out the week. Another cool front with additional precipitation chances looks on track for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

MVFR and isolated IFR ceilings persist across much of the area this afternoon, though should improve within a few hours or so across the west and closer to early evening further east as ceilings lift. Isolated showers were near KALO, and are otherwise spotty in nature over portions of the area but should decrease in coverage over the next few hours as well. Winds will remain light and generally variable in nature into tonight, before switching southeasterly after sunrise and turning breezy. There is a signal for fog development, especially northeast early Tuesday morning, so have included at least at KALO and KMCW at this issuance and will continue to monitor trends.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.