textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions this morning gradually subside through the day, with cold air settling overhead.

- Light snow possible (20-40%) Thursday, with highest potential northeast. Little accumulations expected.

- Snow squall potential by Friday, followed by another push of colder temperatures into the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A change in sensible weather conditions is underway over Iowa early this morning, with increasing northwest flow across Iowa leading to gusty winds, along with falling temperatures from north to south as a cold front slowly continues to descend across northern Iowa and cold air advection gradually overspreads the region. As of 3am, temperatures range in the low 30s north and in the upper 30s south, along with reported gusts generally around 30-35 mph across Iowa, though portions of northern Iowa have seen isolated gusts to 40-45+ mph so far, particularly over Mason City and Estherville. Looking at the synoptic setup this morning shows the feature responsible for these conditions as a deepening low pressure system at the surface currently centered just east of Lake Superior, with its western fringe into Iowa as a tightened pressure gradient overhead and increasing cold air advection given the northwesterly winds. The expectation is that the cold air will continue to drop temperatures further through the morning, with values just after sunrise expected in the upper teens north and in the upper 20s south, along with winds remaining gusty with values up to 30-40 mph, highest across north/west Iowa where isolated values up to 45mph remain possible. With mostly clear skies expected today, the sunshine should allow for temperatures to improve at least a little, as afternoon values top out in the low 20s north to low 30s south. Winds however will remain blustery through the morning, with a slow decrease into the afternoon and especially the evening from west to east as the system further departs east and high pressure descends across the Dakotas and into Iowa by tonight. Skies remaining clear with light winds tonight into Thursday will lead to chilly low temperatures in the low to mid teens.

High pressure departs southeast into early Thursday, with the next feature of interest being the mid-level trough riding the larger- scale ridge over the western CONUS as an area of surface low pressure skirts the Upper Midwest. A cold front attached to this feature will extend into the region, arriving into western Iowa just after sunrise and tracking eastward through the day. With the majority of any notable forcing and moisture north of Iowa through the morning into the early afternoon, not expecting much if anything in the way of snow initially. There are a few CAM members however that do indicate better moisture further south and west later Thursday morning, which soundings do indicate at least some potential for better low level saturation. Therefore have added low Pops further south/west slightly to account for this potential. Winds will also be breezy just ahead of the front's arrival as southwest winds increase into the state, with expected values up to 20-25 mph. This warm air advection will lead to an improvement in temperatures, with highs expected in the mid to upper 30s west and in the low 30s east. By the later afternoon to evening, better moisture return into Iowa, with at least weak forcing continues to depict the potential for snow to develop generally over east/northeast Iowa, with this potential remaining into the early morning Friday before the front exits the state. Minimal accumulations are expected of a dusting to few tenths, with the highest chances northeast (30-40%).

Northwest winds increase behind the initial front into Friday morning, with the surface low becoming more dynamic as it strengthens over the Great Lakes. Then a secondary front within this system arrives later Friday morning and especially into the afternoon which will gradually send in much colder air and even stronger winds across Iowa through the remainder of the day. Northwest winds up to 35-40+ mph are expected, with highest gusts over north/west Iowa. Temperatures will descend through the 20s to teens, with values by Friday night expected to bottom out in the single digits to low teens across Iowa, coldest north. Of additional importance with the cold front through Friday will be the signal that remains for additional snow chances, particularly over northern Iowa in the morning and descending across Central Iowa through the afternoon to evening. A look at sounding data continues to show deep saturation in the mid to low levels, despite some near surface dryness, along with steep lapse rates and impressive instability values around 75-100 J/kg over Central Iowa, which would suggest snow squall potential. Besides the drier air just mentioned, another limiting factor would be the weaker forcing that looks to accompany this, so will have to see how things trend in the coming days. Full saturation with weaker forcing can still lead to the chance for bursts of quickly falling snow, which along with the expected gusty conditions would result in low visibilities and therefore hazardous travel conditions. Please stay tuned for updates over the next few days as details continue to become more clear. Preparedness for potential impacts can start now by planning ahead and monitoring the forecast.

Lingering flurries to light snow showers may remain possible into Saturday morning as low level moisture tries to hold on with thick cloud cover, but should generally dry out through the day as high pressure sinks across the region. Highs will struggle to recover very much with remaining northwest flow and clouds overhead, with highs expected in the upper single digits north and in the upper teens south. Winds switching southwesterly by Sunday will work to warm temperatures, with values slightly improved for highs in the upper teens northeast and in the low 30s southwest. There does remain the signal for additional chances for snow as another wave looks to affect Iowa, with further details expected to be known in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The morning MVFR stratus is eroding across the state and that will lead to VFR conditions for the remainder of the today. Gusty northwest wind will persist today though gradually diminishing through the afternoon. The wind will diminish further overnight and eventually become southerly late tonight into Thursday morning. Clouds will increase tonight and lower through Thursday morning and there is a chance of snow developing towards the end of the period, especially over northern Iowa. Cigs may approach MVFR at times Thursday morning.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.