textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Few isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon

- Dry weather returns to start the new work week.

- Another chance for showers and storms Tuesday night

- Warmer temperatures by late week

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Satellite imagery has started to pick up diurnal cumulus bubbling up over eastern Iowa. A progressive 700mb shortwave trough is currently tracking through central Iowa. Ahead of the trough axis, strong daytime heating is pushing highs into the mid 80's maximizing local instability. This heat combined with deep-level moisture will be enough for a few isolated showers and storms in Eastern Iowa. Though decent instability is present (1000-1500 J/kg MLcape), relative weak flow and modest lapse rates will lead to little concern for severe storms. As storms develop we expect them to be short lived. As they collapse, gusty winds could be possible due to some dry air here at the surface. As we head into the evening hours, and we lose daytime heating storms will begin to dissipate leading to dry conditions overnight.

Higher pressure will being to build in, clearing skies into the overnight hours. Winds will become light and variable leading to possible areas of patchy fog in a few spots tonight. Lows will fall into the lower 60's. The persistent patten will likely continue into the afternoon hours as highs return into the mid 80s with a few rain free cumulus clouds developing in the afternoon. This quiet pattern is likely to continue through Tuesday until our next upper level disturbance arrives Tuesday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The next short wave pattern is expected to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing another round of showers and storms to nothern Iowa. A strengthening LLJ accompanied with steeping lapse rates and dew points returning to the lower 70's could lead to a few storms being on the strong to severe side. Though exact details and timing still need to be worked out in the coming days.

Looking beyond Wednesday morning,things look to quiet back down before another ridge looks to impact the Central plains of the US. It's unsure how far east the ridge will push but something to also watch in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Development of cumulus clouds has started to form over eastern Iowa this afternoon leading to a few sites nearing MVFR restrictions. KALO has been bouncing between VFR and MVFR restrictions and confidence is higher that this will continue until sunset tonight. Clouds will begin to clear overnight leading to widespread VFR conditions with winds remaining light under 12 kts. A few areas of patchy fog will be possible.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.