textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow chances (up to 20%) across Iowa tonight into Tuesday morning. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation possible.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures warming into the 40s by Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Cloud cover has been persistent across much of the central to southwest portions of Iowa today, due to low stratus associated with an incoming shortwave and high cloud streaming in from a surface low to the southwest. The embedded shortwave has our attention as it rotates south across the area this evening through Tuesday morning. This currently sits across South Dakota into Minnesota where radar notes light precipitation occurring. As the wave sinks south into Iowa it loses strength with very modest lift and will battle dry air. Model cross sections and soundings indicate a shallow layer of saturation through the dendritic growth zone with a substantial wedge of dry air below. This will limit accumulations and have kept this to around a tenth or so across the area. With dry air in place there are periods where the DGZ de-saturates, resulting in a loss of ice introduction. There are scenarios where this would result in light freezing drizzle, however with dry air in place through the rest of the column the more likely scenario is that precipitation would end completely rather than transition from snow to freezing drizzle. This wave will progress to southern Iowa by Tuesday morning, sinking south of the area by mid morning.

High pressure keeps the area dry and cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 20s across the area. Another weak embedded shortwave rotates across the area on Wednesday, though at this time precipitation looks to remain east of the area. The western US thermal ridge then begins to shift into the central US for the middle of the week, kicking off a warming trend with 850 mb temperatures in the +5 to +7 C range. Temperatures this week peak Thursday with 40s across much of the state as southwest Iowa makes a run at 50 degrees. A cold front pushes across Iowa Friday, sending highs back to the 30s. Temperatures begin a slow rebound back through the 30s to 40s this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1042 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The band of snow that moved through KMCW and KALO is departing the area to the east, although very light snow/flurries are still drifting over northwestern into western Iowa. These should generally avoid TAF sites, but can't rule out a flurry or two at KMCW or KFOD overnight. A cloud deck around 2k to 3k ft is tracking southward with these flurries, but also should avoid TAF sites. Finally, there is some hint in guidance for an MVFR fog to develop at KMCW and KALO, potentially due to recent snowfall, but confidence is far too low to include at this issuance.

Therefore, TAFs are VFR through the end of the period with light winds and broken to scattered cloud cover expected through most of Tuesday.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.