textproduct: Des Moines

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The latest surface analysis shows a surface wave moving out of the western High Plains with a warm front skirting the local area. This warm frontal boundary is the primary driving force for ongoing showers and thunderstorms. While the severe thunderstorm threat has largely waned, occasional embedded thunder remains possible through the remainder of the overnight period. Outside of the convective activity, temperatures remain mild across the region. Areas northeast of the ongoing showers and storms sit in the low to mid- 50s, whereas locations along and southwest of the rain have warmed into the low to mid-60s.

An upper-level trough centered over southwestern Canada, along with its associated surface low, will gradually pivot eastward toward the Rockies. As this system approaches, the warm front currently oriented northwest-to-southeast across the CWA will lift northeastward through the region. Showers will taper off as the boundary pushes north, yielding a strong warm air advection regime. Post-warm frontal high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper- 80s across the southwest and into the upper-70s across the northeast. While most climatological high temperature records appear secure today, the record of 85 degrees set at Lamoni in 1938 may be threatened. Otherwise, conditions will turn dry and warm today, accompanied by increasing southerly winds this afternoon.

Saturday will bring another warm and dry day; however, the combination of dry air and a tightening pressure gradient will lead to elevated fire weather concerns, particularly across western and northern Iowa where recent precipitation deficits persist. To account for dry boundary-layer mixing biases, afternoon dewpoints were lowered for Saturday, and the 90th percentile NBM was incorporated for wind gusts to reflect a strengthening low-level jet during the afternoon.

A warm front lifting across the region will end overnight showers and bring unseasonably warm, dry conditions today, with near-record highs possible around Lamoni. Elevated fire weather risks will develop on Saturday as dry air, gusty southerly winds, and low dewpoints combine across western and northern Iowa.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

On Sunday, temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with winds lessening as the surface low pressure system moves off toward the Great Lakes. Going into Monday, the upper level flow will once again turn zonal as the remnants of tropical cyclone Isaias pushes off into the Atlantic.

There will be slight chances for light precipitation on Monday in the far northern counties as a shortwave moves across Manitoba/Ontario; however, being so far disconnected from the greatest lift has led precipitation chances to be less than 20%. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should be pleasant and fall-like with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s before southwesterly flow aloft returns mid-week and a large trough digs over the western US. Effects from this trough are uncertain at this time due to model differences, but will be something to monitor over the weekend into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail across all TAF sites; however, as showers with embedded thunderstorms slowly exit the area, eastern terminals (KOTM and KALO) could still see categorical MVFR for a couple more hours. Once showers exit the area, decreasing clouds are expected leading to VFR TAFs through the period. Winds will start to pick up behind the departing warm front, first out of the southeast and backing to the south toward 00Z. Sustained winds around 10 knots with gusts to 18 knots is expected through the period. LLWS will try to work into the far northwestern terminals; however, since winds are forecast to be breezy, opted to stick with turbulent mixing versus LLWS.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.