textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger in northwest Iowa today.

- Enhanced Risk for severe storms Friday, especially over the eastern half of the state.

- Much cooler this weekend with a hard freeze likely in northern Iowa Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 152 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A brief respite from storms is on tap today as short wave ridging moves over Iowa. Main concern for today is elevated fire danger over northwest portions of the area where fuels are drier, less rain fell this week, RH will drop to around 20%, and wind gusts will increase to around 25 mph this afternoon.

For Friday we turn our attention to the severe storm risk. The long wave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will cross the midwest. The associated cold front will cross Iowa during the day Friday. Strong convergence along the surface boundary, coupled with ample instability in the warm sector ahead of the front will support rapid thunderstorm development by afternoon. Current thinking is that storm initiation will occur from midday to early afternoon when the front is across central Iowa. In term of tornado potential, the main variable to keep an eye on is the low level shear. If backing of the wind occurs ahead of the front, the increased shear will increase the tornado potential.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 105 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The cold front will sweep through on Friday night, ushering in considerably cooler weather for the upcoming weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will be about 25-30 degrees lower than on Friday, ranging in the mid-40s to lower 50s across our forecast area. Meanwhile, Friday night/Saturday morning lows will fall below freezing in our northern and western counties, though strong post- frontal winds should prevent any frost formation at that time. By Saturday night/Sunday morning a surface high pressure area will be building into Iowa from the northwest, sending temperatures lower and also diminishing winds. Lows will likely range in the mid/upper 20s north to lower 30s southeast, resulting in a hard freeze in some areas and potential frost across much of our service area, depending on wind speed and cloud cover. A large-scale broad ridging pattern will then set up from later Sunday into the first half of next week, supporting a few days of quieter weather with a gradual warming trend. There are some signs that a more active pattern may return from around the middle of next week onward, but that will be determined in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Patchy, shallow fog at KALO this morning will intermittently impact the airport but should dissipate by 14z. Otherwise VFR conditions are in store this TAF period. Light surface winds will increase from the south today, becoming gusty by afternoon and remaining gusty overnight. Just beyond this TAF period, widespread and potentially severe thunderstorms are expected to impact TAF sites Friday afternoon.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.