textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog expected over parts of northern Iowa until sunrise this morning.

- Showers and weak storms over southern/southwestern Iowa this morning, then the potential for pop up showers and storms into the afternoon to early evening. Severe weather is not expected.

- High pressure is expected to set up over the central U.S. this weekend into next week, bringing much warmer temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Radar imagery early this morning continues to show a decreasing trend in showers and storms across Iowa, with very light showers over eastern Iowa and an additional area of showers and weak storms over southwest Iowa. As forcing for lift continues to diminish with the eastern activity, rain showers will likely end within the next hour or so. With the southwestern Iowa activity, which extends into eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, there is much stronger forcing for ascent, paired with support from the low level jet that is nosing into eastern Kansas/western Missouri, as well as moisture convergence to continue producing thunderstorms over this area. Overall trends indicate that while showers and weak storms are expected to continue through the morning over southwest/southern Iowa, the developing MCS will generally remain further south into Missouri through the morning, where any severe weather concern would be located. With any additional rainfall expected to be located in southwest/southern Iowa this morning yet, the Flood Watch over northern/northeastern Iowa has therefore been cancelled. Of note as well is the introduction of patchy fog in the forecast across northern Iowa this morning, as residual moisture from recent rainfall and a period of clear skies with light winds will lead so some areas of patchy fog development. Observations in far northwestern Iowa and southern Minnesota are already showing this, as well as satellite imagery, which should fade before or just after sunrise, especially as cloud cover further west makes its way into the state.

For the rest of today, outside of the aforementioned showers and storms grazing southern Iowa, the mid-level shortwave over the region will continue its slow passage eastward through the day, with an area of weak low pressure tracking across Missouri towards the Ohio Valley and a larger area of surface high pressure sinking into the Upper Midwest. As a result, north/northeasterly winds will be common over Iowa, leading to temperatures only a touch cooler as highs are expected in the low to mid 80s. These temperatures paired with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will allow for instability values around 2000 J/kg overhead by the afternoon, with at least weak shear that could develop pop up showers and storms generally into the afternoon to evening before drying. The weak shear forcing will greatly limit any severe potential with any storms that can develop overhead, with CAM solutions quite varied on coverage and location. Any storms would likely come up and go down quickly, with lightning and gusty winds from collapsing storms the main concerns, as well as brief heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts are expected to be spotty, with amounts generally under and inch if any showers/storms can develop. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for another MCS developing over northern Missouri as CAMS and deterministic model members suggest in the vicinity of the surface low, and the increasing jet into that area as well into Friday morning. Not expecting this to impact Iowa, outside of a low potential for rain showers in the south, but will keep an eye on trends.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Another 500mb shortwave is progged to pass over Iowa Friday before a high sets up this weekend pancakes much of the central U.S. Monday. Once the high sets up, an increase in temperatures is expected with highs making a run for the 90s through the early part of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Thunderstorms continue to move across portions of central Iowa early in the period. Gusty winds are possible in vicinity of storms along with MVFR cigs. MVFR to potentially IFR cigs are expected to develop over northern Iowa overnight and that may expand south to KDSM. Fog could occur near KMCW but at this time, expect stratus to prevail over fog. Conditions will gradually improve with cigs rising with diurnal heating and eventual clearing. KOTM could have a few showers and storms on Thu but potential is low enough to not include at this time. Mainly light wind except for any potential outflow induced winds near storms.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.