textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Very light snow/flurries possible in western to southern Iowa late tonight into Thursday. Probability of measurable snow is 20% or less and impacts will be negligible.

- Colder Friday and Friday night. Saturday morning lows will be near or below zero, with wind chill values of 10 to 20 below zero.

- Snow chances return Sunday and Sunday night, with approximately a 60% chance of measurable snow during that time, but more precise details of timing and placement unclear at this range. It is likely any accumulations will be light.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A few flurries are moving across the area this afternoon, but they are very spotty and light as dewpoint depressions remain in the 15-20 degree range and no impacts are being observed or expected. A surface high pressure ridge is gradually building down the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota, and will extend across the northeastern half or so of Iowa tonight into Thursday. Meanwhile, a 500 MB shortwave impulse will sink over the High Plains tonight and Thursday, with a band of modest frontogenetical forcing and warm air advection aloft producing a swath of light snow within that region. Model consensus takes most of the resulting QPF, which is generally light, southwest of our area over Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri. However, some solutions do brush it into our western and southern counties late tonight into Thursday. Working against this potential is the continuing influence of near-surface dry air streaming out of the aforementioned ridge. Forecast soundings and cross- sections show that this admittedly shallow layer at and just above the surface will stubbornly persist through the day, with the result being flurries in our west and south, with perhaps a dusting of snow in a few areas but little to no impact. Have nudged POPs up in those areas just a bit on Thursday, to around 20%, and also introduced flurries in areas where POPs are 10% consistent with the approach taken for today.

On Friday and Friday night a 500 MB trough will sink southward over Iowa and the region, which will pull the large surface ridge currently well to our northwest down through our area and bring cooler and dry weather to end the week. With the center of the high moving through Friday and Friday night the coldest temperatures will be felt during this time, as Friday afternoon highs are forecast only in the upper single digits to mid teens, with Saturday morning lows near or below zero across the area. Fortunately winds will be light enough to mitigate the threat of extreme cold, but even so wind chill values will likely range from 10 to 20 below zero late Friday night/early Saturday making for a cold end to January.

In the latter half of the weekend a discombobulated 500 MB trough will move across the region, with most solutions depicting 2-3 distinct but closely intertwined shortwaves comprising the broader trough. With the large surface ridge gradually moving away from Saturday night onward, our low level winds will come around to south to southwest Sunday and Sunday night, resulting in moderating temperatures. However, concurrently, areas of forcing for ascent and a moistening profile will support the generation of light snow at times. The overall chance for measurable snow in our area during the 24 hours from late Saturday night through late Sunday night is relatively high (around 60%), the complicated interrelation of the shortwaves within the 500 MB trough leads to very low confidence in the timing and area of the highest POPs and these details will need to be sorted out in the coming days. Regardless of how the specifics pan out, indications are that any snow that does fall in our area will generally be of light accumulation and without strong winds, helping to minimize travel impacts.

A brief period of weak ridging will move through early next week, but then another 500 MB trough/low will be nearby around late Tuesday or Wednesday, which may bring a return of precipitation chances. This pattern will also support moderate temperatures to start February, with current forecast highs in the 20s to 30s in the first half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with modest northwest to north breezes. A few flurries are possible at FOD/DSM/OTM today, but the probability is low (less than 20%) and visibility restriction is not anticipated.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.