textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers increase in coverage this morning and into the afternoon, then ending for most areas through the evening. Wrap-around showers possible Friday morning in the north and east. - Becoming windy and much cooler by Thursday night into Friday. Winds out of the north gusting to at least 35-40 mph at times, isolated to 45 mph in north/northwest Iowa.

- Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s.

- Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Rain shower activity early this morning has more recently begun a slow increase in coverage, with spotty showers occurring generally over northern and eastern Iowa. Isolated areas further south and west show very light returns on radar, with some very light rain to drizzle observed at the office at the time of this writing. This activity is within an area of warm air advection ahead of an upper level trough that remains over northern Utah/Colorado, with more widespread rain shower activity occurring over Kansas/Nebraska where deeper saturation through the atmosphere and better upper level support is noted. The expectation is that the more widespread activity will make it into Iowa just before or around sunrise, spreading northeastward through the afternoon before gradually tapering off through the evening. The aforementioned upper level trough lifting northeastward over the next several hours is still expected to merge with another trough over the Dakotas by late morning/early afternoon, resulting in a strengthening system that will support stronger dynamics to result in moderate rainfall activity. Very limited instability overhead will keep concerns for thunderstorms minimal, though isolated thunder is possible on occasion. Rain showers will gradually decrease in coverage from southwest to northeast through the evening, with event total rainfall amounts generally expected around 0.5-1 inch, though a few spots up to 1.5 inches cannot be completely ruled out. Highs today will range in the 50s to 60s, coolest north and west and warmest south/southeast.

While dry conditions are expected to return for much of the state through the evening, strong cold air advection arriving on the backside of the deepening surface low pressure system over the Great Lakes will lead to a widespread drop in temperatures and a very noteworthy increase in north/northwest winds, especially into Friday morning. Sustained winds around 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph are likely, isolated even to 45 mph and possibly even higher over north/northwest Iowa. This is supported by the potential for mixing of higher gusts aloft, which can be more efficient in a cold air advection regime, but low stratus may hang around and limit better mixing from occurring. Given this, the latest forecast calls for winds to remain below but close to advisory criteria in north/northwest Iowa, but any increase in confidence could mean a further boost in winds and resulting headline, so stay tuned for updates. The potential for wrap around light rain showers remains per the greater majority of model guidance, mainly for portions of northern and eastern Iowa during the morning, with only minimal additional rainfall before ending. The strong push of cooler air and limited sunshine will allow for otherwise chilly conditions, as highs are only expected to reach the low 50s across Central Iowa. Winds will follow a decreasing trend through the afternoon and especially evening, as the system responsible pushes further east and high pressure makes it's way into the region.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Surface high pressure returns later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to light winds, clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with frost conditions likely so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! With the surface high and an upper ridge in place, dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures begin to rebound again by later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns. This translates to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, mid to upper 60s Sunday and then Monday, and in the low to mid 70s Tuesday-Wednsday.

The GFS brings a small system near to through the region on Monday but the going forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions are ongoing across the area early this afternoon with low stratus and rain causing visibilities to drop into IFR at times. Have adjusted timing and impacts of rain with the latest guidance, though additional adjustments may still be needed depending on how fast the rain is able to taper off this evening. Only a small break is expected this evening before wrap-around rain moves through portions of northern to northeastern/eastern Iowa overnight into Friday morning. Confidence in timing/impacts remains lower than 30% at KMCW/KALO so no preciptation mentions were included for this second round of rain. Clouds will lift some this evening before falling again overnight. Winds will turn gusty from later this afternoon through Friday morning with gusts of up to around 25-35 knots. Improvement in the winds and ceilings are expected on Friday afternoon.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.