textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly through Monday with morning wind chills as low as 5 to 15 below zero.

- Gusty winds, flurries possible tonight into Sunday.

- Turning milder Tuesday through the end of the week, but tempered in snow pack areas.

- Precipitation chances return Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Early afternoon Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB shows streaks and patches of mid and high level clouds over the state. There have been a few passing low clouds also as seen in the same RGB imagery and confirmed by ASOS ceilings around 1500 to 2000 feet. Winds from the northwest are breezy this afternoon, but expect another boost to winds overnight into Sunday as a shortwave trough drops down over Iowa. Forecast soundings show top of mixed layer winds of 30 to 35 mph such that wind and gusts were increased a bit over the initial National Blend of Models (NBM). This will accentuate the chill Sunday morning with wind chills in the single digits below zero to around 10 below zero. The other forecast feature we are watching tonight into Sunday are stratus clouds. Current satellite upstream of Iowa does not look all that concerning with low cloud patches along the North Dakota/South Dakota line with more recent development over eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. Certainly not as expansive like the HREF would suggest at this hour, but it is somewhat in line with the LAMP guidance. Our current expectation is that the stratus will expand this afternoon and into Iowa tonight, especially the northeastern third to half of the state. Cross sections and forecast soundings show low level saturation streaming in from the north/northwest, which will be near if not a bit above the dendritic growth zone. The lift does look minimal, but stratus often outperforms expectations so have included flurries over northern into eastern Iowa tonight into Sunday. The stratus clouds are forecast to push off to the northeast through the day as surface high pressure noses down from the northwest. With the sky clearing Sunday night into Monday morning, it will be a chilly start to the week with morning lows around zero degrees. Winds will be diminishing, but wind chills will be 5 to 15 degrees below zero.

The mid-level pattern will try to push a western CONUS ridge towards the central US from early to midweek, but the ridge will be flattened and kept largely west of Iowa as shortwave troughs ride through the flow. While Monday will still be cold with highs in the 20s as high pressure departs, the remainder of the week will see warmer conditions, albeit tempered in snow areas. The NBM does show the snow footprint in its temperature field, but is also likely overdoing the warm up in these areas. On the other hand, snow free areas, especially in southern Iowa, are likely handled well if not perhaps a touch low. As we head into a warmer pattern with snow on the ground, the thought of fog creeps into the mind and discussion. However, moisture return is limited with the warm up with dewpoints and wetbulbs remaining below freezing limiting the snow melt So, any widespread, dense fog signal is not present at this time. Beyond temperatures, a shortwave ribbon will pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday with a cold front pushing through the state. While Wednesday will be a breezier day, there is not a big push of cold air and moisture is limited and fleeting. A more organized shortwave will push through the region later Wednesday into Thursday. 0z cluster analysis and latest deterministic and ensemble data point to precipitation over some portions if not all of central Iowa sometime later Wednesday to Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

There are plenty of mid and high level clouds over the state at midday with breezy winds from the northwest. There is also a small, patchy area of MVFR ceilings near FOD, but have prevailed VFR until this evening at all sites. Stratus clouds are still forecast to drop into the state tonight and expect MVFR ceilings at MCW, ALO, and FOD. There remains uncertainty in their southwestward and southern extent so have continued SCT FL025-030 bases at DSM and OTM late tonight into Sunday morning. The stratus should begin to push to the northeast toward the end of the period, but kept pessimistic forecast at ALO and MCW. Winds will also become gustier later tonight into Sunday with gust of 25 to 30 knots common.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.