textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Fair, mild weather for the rest of Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 60s.

- Clouds increasing Monday and Tuesday, but with temperatures still well above average. Highs in the southwest Iowa could reach 70 degrees Tuesday.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Tuesday night, mainly north.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mostly sunny skies and light winds made for a pleasant Sunday across the state. Satellite imagery shows an area of stratus/fog in north- central Kansas. This represents where our moisture plume is, and it will be advected in on the LLJ tonight. The surface warm front will bring in a blanket of stratus and accompanying fog, stalling somewhere across the central or north Monday into Tuesday. Both fog and clouds could be a feature throughout the day. In the warm sector, the LLJ wind max continues through the day in Missouri, primed for an additional push of moisture and stratus in the evening and overnight. The most noticeable change is to the high temperatures, especially in the north with the warm front. Similar adjustments may be needed on Tuesday depending on where the warm front lies then.

Eventually, the warm front will be picked up by a surface low associated with a negatively-tilted shortwave trough ejecting from the northern Rockies. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient increases, leading to gusty winds, especially across the south. Dew points in the NBM are likely running too high in the south Tuesday, where some clearing may allow for better mixing and decreasing dew points. This is when and where the chances for elevated fire weather conditions are greatest. The EML will reach into Iowa, steepening midlevel lapse rates. A trend this forecast issuance was a delay in the occlusion mentioned yesterday, leading to an uptick in precipitation for portions of central Iowa. Thunderstorms will be possible given the midlevel lapse rates ranging from 7 to 8 C/km. Depending on available boundary layer moisture, there could be more CAPE available, increasing the chance of thunderstorms. The SPC has a general thunder outlook for most all of Iowa.

A pattern change arrives behind Tuesday night's system. Broad troughing in the western CONUS will usher in cooler air in the Plains, dropping temperatures closer to normal for mid February. Lee- side troughing is favored in this pattern, indicating an active pattern. Precipitation will be possible to end the work week (30-40% chance on Thursday and Friday).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. There is a low probability (20-30%) of light fog in northern Iowa between about 12Z and 15Z Monday. Have maintained 6SM BR at MCW where probability is relatively highest, but removed it from FOD/ALO where fog appears less likely. A period of 4-6 hours of LLWS 35-40 KT is still expected overnight into early Monday morning, then will abate as winds aloft gradually diminish.

CLIMATE

Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Forecast and Record High Temperatures for Select Central Iowa cities on Monday, February 16...

=========================================== | Monday | Period | Fcst Record/ | of City | High Year | Record =========================================== Mason City 57 63/1981 1903-Present Waterloo 61 62/1981 1895-Present Des Moines 65 66/1981 1878-Present Ottumwa 66 65/2017 1923-Present ===========================================

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.