textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Light wintry mix possible late afternoon and evening, mainly west of I-35. Little to no accumulation expected.

- Dry with a warming trend this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A weak embedded upper level shortwave is passing across Nebraska and into western Iowa this afternoon, accompanied by surface theta-e advection. Across Nebraska this has resulted in a wintry mix of freezing rain/drizzle and snow, creating slick spots on roads. As this shifts into western Iowa this afternoon and evening it will encounter drier air from the high pressure that has been situated across the state. Soundings and cross sections show this well with a notable midlevel dry layer, which will translate to a messy precipitation type forecast. A continuation of the light freezing drizzle from Nebraska into Iowa is expected, though there could be additional snow, especially as the column continues to cool and a seeder-feeder scenario sets up and allows for more flurries/snow. Better lift shifts southeast of the area with the shortwave passage, and when combined with the dry air the wave will battle, accumulations are expected to be quite light. This should help to mitigate widespread impacts, but a few slick spots are certainly possible this evening.

Stratus, and perhaps a few flurries, will linger through Saturday. Then, a surface low will pass north of the area on Sunday, increasing warm air advection across the area and kicking off a warming trend lasting into next week. Precipitation with the low is expected to remain north of the area, however it may skim parts of northern Iowa. Ridging through at least the middle of the upcoming week will help to keep temperatures mild. How mild? There remains some uncertainty here. As the previous discussion mentioned, a similar setup over around Christmas resulted in forecast temperatures much too warm with days of fog and stratus. This go around looks a little drier and there is significantly less snowpack in place, which may help to mitigate all the fog and stratus. However, this time of year stratus is quite persistent and suspect that the higher end temperatures forecast into the middle of next week may need to come down. A pattern change looks to arrive by late next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A prolonged period of MVFR ceilings is forecast through the period as winds remain below 10 knots. While MCW and ALO are VFR to start the period, they will trend into MVFR tonight along with the rest of the sites that already have restrictions. Confidence is high in these restrictions through Saturday morning with some uncertainty in cloud extent over southern Iowa. This forecast sides more pessimistically given stratus tends to linger longer this time of year. Also have maintained the P6SM -SN for flurries/very light snow at FOD and DSM, but mid-level dry air may win out and will look at removing at 6z issuance if trends support.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.