textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory continues until 9pm for snow squall potential. Snow will continue northeast tonight into Saturday.

- Additional snow chances on Sunday, mainly through the morning.

- Cold temperatures this weekend with highs in the single digits and teens Saturday. Wind chills in the negative 20s north Sunday night and Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Troughing will continue to influence the weather in Iowa through the weekend, beginning with snow squall potential this afternoon. A cold front is advecting in a surge of cold air in the DGZ, however dry air has punched through as well, splitting the frontogenesis band into two main segments. Behind the front is steepening lapse rates and CAPE values up to around 20 J/kg. Air is taking an hour or two to recover post front, but saturation is achieved back where temperatures fall into the teens. Peak mixing will take place between now and sunset with the highest chance of squalls within the Advisory area (no changes made spatially or temporally to the Advisory this issuance). Watching for a potential extension of snow as a PV anomaly swings down from the Dakotas. A vorticity max will pivot around the parent low in northeast Iowa simultaneously. The result will be a tightening fgen band beginning in northeast Iowa. Amounts will be low due to how cold the column will be at this point. Much of the saturation is below the DGZ, lowering the QPF amounts from less moisture content in a cold air mass. Amounts generally up to an inch expected with higher amounts beneath the fgen band. The other note for Saturday is the cooldown. Lows in the morning will be in the single digits with wind chills approaching - 20 degrees in the northwest. Highs will only be in the teens.

Another notable change to the forecast is the increase in precipitation Sunday. Another shortwave will pivot into the region, dragging a cold front with it Sunday morning. There will be some temperature and moisture recovery in the midlevels ahead of the front. Soundings at this range introduce moisture and forcing at differing times, but when saturation is achieved, much of the profile is dendritic. Additional snow showers may develop behind the front as lapse rates steepen. QPF and snow amounts again appear low, but the high SLR potential means dry, powdery, blowable snow could be in play as winds increase Sunday afternoon.

Wind chill headlines will likely be needed Sunday night as an arctic airmass plunges into the state. Wind chill values in the north will be in the -20s. Highs will swing back towards the 20s and 20s above zero by Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Main aviation concern is the impact light snow will have on restrictions at the terminals through Saturday morning. To start, spotty snow showers over southern Iowa have brought and will bring brief, localized IFR or perhaps lower restrictions. This activity should be moving out shortly. Another area of snow is rotating over southern Minnesota into northern Iowa. This will bring MVFR ceilings (high confidence) and MVFR or IFR visibilities (moderate confidence) to most terminals before 12z except OTM. As the snow ends, ceilings will increase and clouds will break from west to east with VFR conditions returning to all but MCW/ALO before the end of the period. Gusty winds will also prevail until Saturday evening.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.