textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue Saturday. Elevated fire weather conditions in cropland.

- Rain chances increase slowly from the northwest, cooling temperatures within and to the north of rain.

- Stalled boundary will bring split weather conditions next week: Seasonal temperatures north, warm south. Rain chances remain in the picture.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Showers hung on in northern Iowa this afternoon. Ceiling heights in observations were above 15kft and soundings show a dry sub-cloud layer. Dew points at the surface mixed into the upper 40s where clouds didn't reach and winds gusted between 20 and 30mph. Midlevel moisture will continue to be advected northward as the northern segment of the western CONUS trough ejects northward. The southern piece of the trough will remain closed off and stuck in the southwest US. Meanwhile, high pressure is stuck in the Midwest to our east. This is blocking the cold front of the northern stream wave, stalling it in northwest Iowa through the weekend. Rain chances will be in play in the north and northwest, mainly in the overnight hours. Clouds will be common across the area due to moisture advection.

The southern portion of the trough will start to fill and migrate northeast into the Plains, bringing increased rain and clouds to the area to end the weekend and begin the following week.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

On late Monday, the wave will tilt negatively across southeast South Dakota. Some CAPE is tucked right in the triple point, but the speed of the system keeps the warm sector out of the state until the overnight hours. CAPE will build on the warm sector of the front as it stalls across the middle of the state. Much of next week will have split weather between the north and southern half. The northern half will have more seasonal temperatures whereas 70 degree highs will be common across the south. Rain and some thunderstorms will remain in the picture. This pattern will remain until the east CONUS ridge is broken down by a stronger system from the west.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions and high clouds will prevail this period. Have added a TEMPO group for showers at KMCW, but it will be light and won't affect vsbys. Southeast to southerly winds will prevail, remaining above 10kts for most sites overnight. Gusts will return late in the period, mainly after 15z.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.