textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries or light freezing drizzle possible over western Iowa this morning.

- Milder with above normal conditions arriving Thursday and staying into early next week with mainly dry conditions.

- Brisk breezes on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Early morning GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery paired with RAP analysis shows the back edge of the broader trough dropping through northern Minnesota and the Dakotas early this morning. Ahead of it, there has been weak mid-level energy over the state that resulted in a band of light radar returns with stratus clouds expansive over the western half of the state. Outside of maybe a few flurries on a Lake View camera, the dry air in the low levels has been winning out. However, as the shortwave energy with the back edge arrives later this morning, there appears to be enough depth of moisture and lift for light snow or light freezing drizzle per surface observations and chatting with Twin Cities and Sioux Falls NWS offices. Looking at soundings, it does look like the depth of saturation remains while ice introduction is lost. Therefore, have added low PoPs and combined a freezing drizzle/light snow/flurry mix over our far northwestern and western counties. Any accumulation will be a dusting/glaze at most with this activity expecting to end by midday today. Otherwise, sunshine will be limited with highs starting their climb reaching the mid-20s to upper 30s from northeast to southwest over the state.

The northwesterly flow that has persisted this week will continue into this weekend while a mid-level ridge establishes itself over the western US. Its associated thermal ridge will start to grace Iowa with some of its warmer conditions Thursday, especially over western Iowa, as clouds depart from west to east through the day. Highs will accordingly range from the 50s over far western Iowa to the middle 30s over northeastern Iowa, where there is lingering snow depths of a few to several inches. A trough will drop into the Great Lakes region with a cold front moving through Iowa late Thursday night and Friday. GFS is lagging behind other models by 6 to 9 hours in its passage, but the message is the same of pressure height rise coupled with some degree of low level cold air advection and a tightening pressure gradient leading to brisk breezes. BUFKIT soundings show a shallow mixed layer with top of layer winds between 30 and 35 knots so have bumped winds above initial National Blend of Models guidance. NAM and GFS soundings also show that the low level lapse rates steepen and a small degree of instability forms within a shallow saturated layer Friday, which may be enough to generate some showery precipitation per NAM and CMC QPF fields. As the mid-level and thermal ridge slides eastward this weekend into next week, conditions will remain above normal with highs well into the 40s and 50s along with mainly dry conditions early next week. However, as flow starts to turn more southwesterly toward midweek, this may open the door to the next precipitation chance, perhaps as soon as Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1034 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Low clouds will slowly spread into the area later tonight into Wednesday, however, confidence in ceiling heights is low. Currently a broken band of MVFR ceilings, with localized IFR, stretches roughly along the SD/MN border and down the IA/NE border. It has made little eastward progress in the last several hours, but may eventually creep eastward toward the terminals on Wednesday morning. Have maintained a period of MVFR at FOD and MCW and an expectation that heights will slowly rise to VFR during the day and at the other terminals. However, this will be reassessed overnight based on short-term trends, and amendments may be necessary.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.