textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms likely overnight (>60%) for the western half of the area. Chances decrease east.

- Low chance (<40%) of showers and storms in the far east Saturday afternoon.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Weather in northwest Iowa Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Sunshine has emerged in local areas this afternoon, but temperatures will have underperformed today. Highs will be near 70 for all but northwest Iowa. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough is ejecting across the Northern Plains this afternoon, dragging a cold front along with it. This front will arrive after midnight in the mid state, brining a quick window of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder early on. Saturation is lost as it moves east and precipitation will fizzle. The boundary will reignite Saturday afternoon during peak heating. This activity has trended just east of the DMX CWA.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A Marginal Risk for Severe Weather was added in for Sunday. This reflects the returning moisture axis as the upper-level ridge builds in. Storms will ignite Sunday night with the LLJ, but will have weaker deep-layer shear to work with. Since storms are nocturnal, they'll be elevated with hail being the primary threat. The remnant moisture from the overnight will stall somewhere in northern Iowa and reignite at peak heating.

A blocking pattern will form for the week and has continued to trend west with each issuance. What this means is Iowa may see increased influence from the eastern trough in the form of height rises and subsidence. A Great Lakes high will reinforce dry air. The upper-level ridge will push temperatures into the 80s. It will be an overall summertime pattern with warm temperatures and diurnally-driven thunderstorms where the moisture axis will reach. Right now, this is most likely in southwest Iowa.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR CIGs spread across the state this evening with a line of thunderstorms ongoing across western Iowa. These thunderstorms will move east and transition to showers through the evening, though for now confidence is low that any thunderstorms will make it to the terminals. MVFR CIGs are expected with the line, with 30% probabilities for IFR present overnight at KMCW/KFOD. Winds will be calm but shifting from SE to NW during the morning. Additionally, while unlikely at this time, potential for patchy fog is being monitored in southeast Iowa tomorrow morning.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.