textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering light snow to freezing drizzle mainly in east/northeast Iowa, before drying through this evening across central Iowa.

- A chance (<20%) for light snow for northern Iowa Monday night into early Tuesday, with possible accumulations under an inch.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures near to below normal early in the week, then above normal by Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Winter weather in the form of light snow continued to track eastward across Central Iowa through the day, which overall produced accumulations up to an inch, highest in northern Iowa. Specifically, Waterloo and Garner reported 1 inch this afternoon, while at the WFO and DSM airport, values were reported at 0.1'' and 0.2'' respectively. Since then, as the elevated frontal boundary tracks into eastern Iowa, remaining light snow has largely ended west of I- 35, with otherwise limited reports of snow at Ottumwa and Iowa Falls from observations as of this writing. Radar returns though however remain further west over much of the I-80 interstate, but are rather light and not producing any precipitation at the surface. In terms of freezing drizzle today, have only seen a few reports in far southern Minnesota, as well as some reports of fog/mist that could at times have been freezing drizzle over northern Iowa, but have not seen any impacts at the surface regarding any ice accumulations. This is likely due to the already treated roadways that became partially covered over these areas due to the snow earlier in the day. A closer look at surface features shows the lagging surface boundary just arriving into Iowa, noted by the winds shifting northwest over western Iowa, which will pass through the rest of this afternoon to evening. Considering lingering low level saturation over the eastern part of the forecast area into the early evening per model guidance, any remaining potential for light snow and/or freezing drizzle would be more likely in these areas, before dry air overtakes the entire area through the evening hours. Any additional snow accumulations up to a dusting in the east is expected at most, but with already treated roadways as mentioned, should limit any notable impacts. Otherwise, temperatures warmed nicely through the day given the warm air advection into the state, with values as of 2pm through the 30s in the southwest where skies are clear and in the 20s elsewhere. These values may increase a degree or so in some spots, before nightfall drops temperatures down into the low to mid teens northeast and in the upper teens to low 20s southwest.

An area of ridging into Monday morning will lead to the arrival of a brief period of drier air overhead, resulting in a quiet start to the work week, as highs are expected to reach the 30s southwest and in the 20s northeast. While surface high pressure begins to descend into the Upper Midwest, guidance also shows a shortwave within the larger scale flow scooting just southeast into the region by Monday evening into early Tuesday. A look at soundings over this time period does indicate saturation occurring through the column, along with a relatively broad area of lift through the DGZ over northern Iowa that would indicate the potential for snowfall over this area. Therefore, have added in some low PoP mentions (around 15-20%) in northern Iowa for this forecast cycle and will have to adjust as needed based on future trends on guidance over the next few forecast cycles. Snowfall amounts at this time look to generally be below an inch, ending before sunrise as the forcing essentially shuts off. Slick conditions from the snow over this area may lead to hazardous travel through the Tuesday morning commute.

The aforementioned Canadian surface high pressure descending into Iowa then descends over the region through Tuesday, especially into the afternoon/evening with the return of drier air overhead, with temperatures just a bit lower than previous days in the upper teens to mid 20s northeast and in the upper 20s to low 30s southwest. By midweek, a growing thermal ridge and associated large area of surface high pressure is expected to gradually move eastward into the Central Plains, but will be slow to do so as yet another subtle and even weaker feature quickly passing just ahead of it, moves into the region Wednesday. Very limited moisture and forcing with this however keeps confidence quite low on anything reaching the ground, so at this time have kept with a dry forecast and will keep an eye on this. Otherwise, the main story through the mid-late work week will be the gradual arrival of above average temperatures paired with dry conditions over the region as the thermal ridge influences at least the western portions of the Midwest. Temperatures will be comfortable for February, especially Thursday as highs are expected to soar through the 40s for most areas but the northeast, though will reach above freezing in these areas still in the upper 30s. Further north and east, an area of low pressure circulating over southern Canada is suggested to pass across the Great Lakes into Friday, with another period of at least low chances of precipitation well north and east of Iowa, leading to continued dry weather. The larger trough in relation to the surface feature also brings with it an area of much colder air, though generally remaining north and east of Iowa into the weekend. The region will otherwise remain in low level northwest flow, with a broad area of high pressure expected to arrive Saturday that should continue to streak of drier conditions overhead. Temperatures will remain mild in the 30s to low 40s southwest and in the upper 20s to mid 30s northeast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs are across Iowa early this evening. There is also an area of IFR cigs and patchy freezing drizzle over northeast Iowa. That may reach KALO early in the period. While there could be a brief period of VFR cigs as it moves south from Minnesota, additional MVFR cigs remain upstream. Any improvement Monday remains uncertain but given the broad area of stratus and early February stratus climatology, MVFR cigs will likely persist much of the day. The wind will be turning west then northwest tonight and will remain mostly below 12 kts.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.