textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool, gray, blustery weather today into tonight with spotty light showers.

- Cooler, more seasonal temperatures will set in later this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The latest surface analysis across the CONUS remains active with multiple synoptic-scale features in place. The primary feature is a 997mb surface low currently centered over the Chequamegon National Forest region of northern Wisconsin. Additionally, broad areas of surface high pressure are centered across the northern and southern CONUS, while a secondary surface low develops off the Rocky Mountain Piedmont and tracks toward the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Locally, the area remains under the cyclonic circulation of the departing surface low, which continues to promote widespread stratus cloud cover, cooler temperatures, areas of drizzle or light rain, and brisk north-northwest surface winds.

For the remainder of the day, the surface low will continue to track eastward; however, Iowa will remain positioned beneath the mid-level deformation zone through much of the day and into Thursday morning. As the low pivots eastward, frontogenetical forcing within the deformation axis will drop southward through the area over the next couple of hours, producing isolated to scattered showers this afternoon that will persist into Thursday morning. Persistent low- level moisture and cyclonic wrap-around will keep periods of drizzle and light rain showers ongoing throughout the daytime hours. Breezy westerly winds will veer to the north-northwest, allowing CAA to reinforce late-autumn temperatures. Afternoon highs today will reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will exhibit a small diurnal drop of only a few degrees, as extensive, lingering cloud cover limits nocturnal radiational cooling. As the low departs eastward and surface high pressure builds across the Upper Midwest, a more representative November air mass will settle into the region. Highs will top out in the upper 40s, while nighttime lows fall into the 30s, with even colder conditions expected Friday night into Saturday morning.

A departing low-pressure system, presently over northern Wisconsin, will keep Iowa cool, cloudy, and damp through Thursday morning with scattered showers and drizzle. Persistent cloud cover will limit the diurnal temperature range today, while subsequent north- northwesterly cold air advection and incoming high pressure will usher in noticeably colder, seasonal conditions with lows dipping into the 30s by the end of the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Surface high pressure will largely dominate the synoptic regime through the extended forecast period. While several shortwave disturbances are projected to track across the CONUS, persistent large-scale subsidence will keep the area dry, yielding only intermittent passing mid- to upper-level clouds associated with these features. Temperatures will rebound to above-normal levels, as daytime highs climb into the 60s while overnight lows dip into the lower to mid-40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

IFR ceilings and light showers span much of northern Iowa, with MVFR ceilings and drizzle central and south. The light showers/drizzle will continue drifting south and eastward through the morning, tapering off by early Thursday morning. As showers move through KFOD, KMCW and KALO, ceiling & visibility may improve temporarily, then worsen again after they move out. Winds will remain breezy around 10 to 15 kts out of the west northwest with sporadic gusts around 20 kts possible through the morning. Winds become more northerly through Thursday, but remain breezy through the day with gusts of 20 to 25 kts possible. Ceilings and visibilities improve some through Thursday, but MVFR conditions persist through the day.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.