textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog possible far northwest this morning.

- Much warmer today and Friday.

- Precipitation chances are in the forecast this weekend but those chances may need to be significantly reduced pending impacts of high pressure approaching the state.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 411 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Precipitation is ending across the area early this morning. Snowfall accumulations were close to as advertised. The drizzle potential did not materialize as the cloud bases remained AOA 2500ft due to the lack of saturation below this level. That likely can be in part be attributed to the lack of low level moisture advection as this system relied on the mid-level Pacific moisture. Areas of fog have been developing over parts of northwest Iowa and far southwest Minnesota. A few areas outside the DMX CWA have become dense. That fog development originally occurred immediately behind the stratus clearing line but there has been separation between the fog and the departing stratus the past few hours. The wind is expected to gradually increase over the next few hours and into the morning, which would be a dense fog deterrent in this case. The wind will turn more southwest this morning which could lead to the fog advecting northeast. Will continue to monitor the evolution of the fog this morning.

Temperatures are going to be a forecast challenge today and tomorrow as warm advection moves across the state. The elephant in the room remains the lingering snow cover and the additional snow that occurred overnight. Southwest wind today will blow right along the snow path which could result in increased impacts the farther northeast along the snow cover line due to extended cooling of the air moving into the area. High temperatures Friday will hinge some on lingering snow cover, wet ground where snow has melted and the the downslope westerly winds that arrive during the day ahead of the main cold front, which will reach northern Iowa mid to late afternoon. There are two things that are not as impacted by snow cover. The first is rising dew points, which forces temperatures higher regardless of snow. The second is westerly downslope flow, which can be a snow eater. Certainly the snow covered areas will be cooler than snow free. Southern Iowa could really warm up to near 70 degrees. That may also lead to an Elevated Fire Danger as relative humidities fall below 30 percent and the wind gusts to near 30 mph.

Bonus weekend precipitation discussion and thoughts. High pressure always wins with disclaimer that it must be properly positioned. Both the Saturday snow potential over northern Iowa and the Sunday system will be impacted in some way by high pressure and the dry air associated with it. Expect the snow potential on Saturday to be minimal. Sunday, expect this system to "drop" south as the timeframe approaches. The deterministic ECMWF is an outlier with a near 1040 mb high moving over the eastern Great Lakes. That allows some moisture to lift north towards Iowa. Still it has easterly flow from that High into Iowa and a surface boundary well south of the state. Nearly all other guidance has that high farther west funneling an exceptional amount of dry air into Iowa.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

An active forecast returns for the weekend with another quick- hitting system bringing more chances for snow to mainly northern into northeastern Iowa on Saturday. Outside of the Euro, most models have come into decent agreement of a glancing blow to northern/northeastern Iowa with this system keeping most dry, but the far north/northeast with a quick inch or less of snow. The more noticeable impact for most will be the cooler temperatures as highs fall back to seasonal if not below normal temperatures by Sunday with temperatures in the 20s to low 30s.

A potentially more impactful system is on the horizon for Sunday into Monday, however there remains considerable uncertainty with this system. As one example, 25-75th probabilities for snowfall accumulations range from 0-8 inches over a good portion of central Iowa. With the exact track and the timing of the system still unknown at this point given the range in possibilities, it remains too early to speculate exact amounts or impacts for any one location. It should be noted that temperature profiles over portions of southern Iowa into northern Missouri may actually favor more of a wintry mix with snow transitioning to freezing rain with the loss of ice introduction or just freezing rain. This period will continue to be watched closely with potential impacts to start the next work week.

Additional systems follow mid-week to certainly later next week with details to come, but an active period continuing through next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The last round of precipitation will move across central Iowa early tonight. A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow will impact the DSM and OTM terminals through about 08-09z before shifting sewd and ending. Expect a period of MVFR VSBYs and CIGs as the precipitaiton moves through. While there will be low stratus clouds in the wake of the system, low confidence on magnitude of CIGs. Decided to include a period of MVFR conditions at the southern terminals through Thursday AM, but its possible conditions will remain VFR, or perhaps IFR conditions could develop, along with patchy fog. Improvement at all terminals will occur after 15Z Thursday, with VFR conditions expected the remainder of the period.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.