textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy, low-lying frost for a few hours 3 to 7 am this morning. - Several chances for showers and thunderstorms through early next week. No apparent signal for significant severe weather or heavy rainfall with any storm chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A look at the current pattern features the continuation of mid-level troughing across the Great Lakes into Canada, while over the western CONUS, ridging is building. An embedded shortwave currently over the Dakotas is slated to track southeastward, passing over Iowa later today. Weak forcing and mid level moisture ahead of this feature though has led to areas of clouds in the mid-levels over southern Minnesota down through at least the northern half of Iowa. Localized returns per recent radar scans is indicated mainly over southern Minnesota into far northern Iowa, though the presence of notable low level dry air is keeping surface conditions dry. The expectation is that this activity will continue to move southeastward across northern into eastern Iowa this morning, with dry air remaining overhead keeping conditions dry. Regarding temperatures, values are currently reading in the mid 30s to mid 40s, lowest over far northern Iowa and portions of western Iowa, paired with light and variable winds. Despite the cloud cover moving over the state, continued cooling is expected before sunrise, with lows falling largely in the mid to upper 30s. While the clouds are limiting widespread frost formation, isolated frost is possible still this morning, mainly over portions of northern and western Iowa.

Low level southwest flow increasing into Iowa for today will lead to warming conditions, as forecast highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s. This afternoon into the early evening, boundary layer mixing and elevated instability aloft mainly over central to southern Iowa will lead to breezy conditions and cumulus development, with CAM guidance continuing to also suggest rain shower development. However, low level dry air per soundings looks to stay put, while forcing looks to be more pronounced, maximized further east towards Illinois. Cannot rule out the potential (<20%) for virga or sprinkles during this time, along with the possibility of localized evaporative cooling that would result in occasional gusty winds possibly reaching up to 35-40 mph. Any activity diminishes later in the evening, with temperatures dropping off in the upper 30s through mid 40s by tonight, warmest south and southwest.

Another shortwave and attendant surface low moving into the region late tonight into early Friday will bring the next chance for rain into Iowa. Deeper moisture profiles in the mid-levels, along with slightly stronger forcing due to an increasing low level jet maximized over northern Missouri may be able to overcome the low level dry air that is still indicated over southern to portions of central Iowa, as the system itself passes just to the south of the state. At most given the current guidance, light rain is possible (20-30%) over these areas through the morning. Dry conditions are expected to return through the afternoon as the feature departs eastward. Dry air overtakes the area, especially over northern and western Iowa as PBL mixing maximizes, where gusts up to 20-30 mph are possible through the afternoon. The push of warm air continues to end the work week as the aforementioned western ridge approaches the region. Highs are expected to reach into the upper 60s to low 70s into the afternoon, warmest over western Iowa.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 128 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Additional shortwaves will move through the region late this week into perhaps early next week. The rough timeframes and possible areas for scattered showers and storms are as follows: 1) late Thursday night into Friday morning, primarily southern Iowa, 2) late Saturday into Sunday morning with chances highest over southern Iowa, and 3) late Monday into Tuesday over the state. In all instances, there is no apparent signal for significant severe weather or heavy rainfall concerns from a pattern recognition and diagnostic standpoint. Examining the ML/AI guidance generally supports this idea with EC forced data pointing to up to 15% chance on Monday/Monday night while the GFS/GEFS is lower or none. Temperatures in this period will largely be around if not above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period. Clouds continues to linger over portions of northwest Iowa with additional clouds streaming into southern into portions of central Iowa overnight into Thursday morning. Dry air continues to look to limit sprinkle/light rain chances near KDSM/KOTM Thursday as seen in many CAMs, so kept forecast dry. After some clearing Thursday evening, additional clouds move in overnight into Friday. Winds may be a bit breezy at times in especially southern Iowa Thursday after remaining light and variable through the overnight hours.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.