textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds, light snow and blowing/drifting snow will cause reduced visibilities through this afternoon and evening, especially over central and northern Iowa.

- Frigid wind chills develop tonight, with values dropping to the teens below zero south to twenties below zero north through Monday morning.

- Cooler temperatures continue Monday, then warm back towards normal by Tuesday. Snow chances (40-50%) return to northern and northwestern Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Our cold front and snowfall has begun to make it's way through the area early this afternoon. Winds are steadily flipping to northwesterly and increasing over the western half of the state, with gusts up to 40 mph already being observed in the northwest. An area of light snow is accompanying this front, leading to visibilities generally around 1 to 2 miles. With the winds slightly lagging the snowfall, significant visibility reductions have been avoided thus far and snow has been light enough to keep road conditions from worsening. Farther upstream, satellite and radar imagery in Minnesota and the Dakotas indicate streaks of HCRs accompanying the increasing winds and cold air advection. While not persistent, the combination of falling snow from the HCRs and strong winds have dropped visibilities under a mile, with occasional 1/4 mile visibilities in southwest Minnesota. This will be the next hazard to watch for, as these snow showers are beginning to make their way into northwest Iowa. Sudden visibility reductions may occur while driving in northern Iowa this afternoon and evening. Likewise, gusty winds over a cold, fluffy snowpack will likely stir up some drifting snow through the afternoon and evening. For these reasons, the Winter Weather Advisory remains unchanged and in effect until 9 pm this evening.

Temperatures will plummet and winds will diminish but remain breezy behind the cold front tonight. Wind chills overnight will fall into the twenties below zero north to teens below zero south through Monday morning, making for a frigid start to the work week. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in place for much of northern, central and southeastern Iowa through noon on Monday. Winds will be light to breezy through the day on Monday, steadily becoming more westerly. Temperatures will warm some during the day, but highs still only reach the single digits above zero north and mid teens south with wind chills on either side of zero, depending where you are in the state.

A weak shortwave will pass through the state later Monday into early Tuesday, bringing increased cloud cover aloft but remaining dry at the surface. Surface high pressure will fill in by Tuesday morning, with a more southerly return flow developing through mid-day. The southwesterly flow will help to boost temperatures back into the 20s and 30s on Tuesday.

Our next chance for precipitation returns to Iowa on Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak shortwave follows quickly behind the previous. This wave will have a bit more moisture with it as the surface low passes directly overhead, generating a band of light snowfall from west to east through northern Iowa and/or southern Minnesota. There are still some discrepancies in guidance on how this low pressure will evolve as it tracks eastward, although there is fairly good agreement that snow will occur with this wave. The main sticking point will be where the main band sets up and how intense it will be, with deterministic models placing the heaviest band on either side of the Iowa/Minnesota border. Ensemble solutions have started to narrow in on this as well, with the grand ensemble probabilities for 0.05" of QPF in 24 hrs around 60 to 70% in northern and northwest Iowa, then values tapering off farther south. Exact snow amounts are still uncertain, but a higher-than-climo snow to liquid ratio (climo for Iowa is around 13:1) likely with the cold profiles, so it will be worth watching how the QPF trends shake out. Regardless, this is still a few days out, so will continue to refine the details through the coming days and as more data becomes available. Breezy conditions then develop again on Wednesday behind the system.

Yet another wave looks to move through toward the second half of this week, which will bring another plume of colder air down into the state, bringing another bout of very cold temperatures through the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1010 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Narrow bands of shallow clouds often containing snow showers continue to move over northern Iowa late this evening. These will continue to have intermittent impacts at FOD, MCW, and ALO and have opted to prevail VFR with TEMPO restrictions as these move over and away from a terminal. Otherwise, blowing snow may continue pver these sites as gusty winds slowly subside overnight and through the day Monday. These shallow clouds will slowly erode overnight into Monday with ceilings generally expected to improve into VFR with moderate to high confidence.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-048>050. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-045>050-061-062. Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to noon CST Monday for IAZ058>060-072>075-083>086-095>097.