textproduct: Des Moines
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Lows near freezing this morning as well as Sunday morning, mainly in northern Iowa.
- Wind gusts to 35mph likely this afternoon.
- Temperatures recover into the 60s and 70s starting Monday. Rain and storm chances return Thursday.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
Dry air has continued to chew away at cloud cover early this morning and gusty winds have persisted overnight. That same dryness will lead to efficient mixing today, likely above 800mb. Winds will remain elevated as a result with gusts to around 35mph likely this afternoon. Highs will only make it to around 50 degrees. Elevated fire weather conditions exist today due to the winds and low RHs. Impacts are dampened by the greenness of vegetation and the cooler temperatures. A shortwave will scrape northern Iowa tonight along the northwest flow and bring a chance for showers and perhaps some snow flakes. Moisture content is low enough that little to no accumulation is expected. Sunday morning lows will be near to below freezing in northern and northeast Iowa, but enough dry air will remain that frost is unlikely. Sunday will be slightly warmer with highs in the mid to upper 50s.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
A northern stream trough will move across northern Canada and promote troughing on the lee side of the Rockies. Effects for Iowa will begin as WAA from southwest flow, recovering highs into the 60s and 70s. High pressure will block the Gulf ahead of the trough base passing, so that boundary passage Tuesday appears to be dry. Moisture return picks up on Thursday. Western CONUS troughing will dig into the Four Corners region, eventually ejecting a leading wave into the region. GEFS ML Severe Probabilities are keying in on this being a potential severe weather day. The forecast gets messy beyond Thursday, as the aforementioned shortwave gets caught in a large circulation over southern Canada. Troughing will still hold over the western CONUS and tilt positively back off the California coastline. The regional height falls from the Canadian circulation would favor cooler temperatures, at this range.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026
VFR conditions to prevail. Gusty northwest winds will peak around 30kts before easing after 00z.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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