textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above average temperatures through at least mid-week with highs mainly in the 50s-60s though highs in southwest Iowa could reach into the 70s on Tuesday. Some temperature records may also be challenged today. See climate section. - Elevated fire weather conditions may develop in the south this afternoon, but more so Tuesday with stronger winds forecast, though also more cloud cover.

- Scattered showers (25-45% chance) Tuesday night. A few thunderstorms are possible.

- Cooling temperatures with additional precipitation chances Thursday into Friday. Details to come.

UPDATE

Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Warm air advection and an increase in high clouds has kept temperatures from falling as much or as quickly early this morning than in past nights. Temperatures around 3 AM were in the upper 30s to 40s which is actually near to above our normal high temperatures for mid February! With some clear patches noted on satellite, temperatures in some locations may still be able to drop off a fair amount into daybreak, but some high minimum temperature records could be challenged this morning. A few patches of fog have started to develop in mainly northeast Iowa where skies are clear but stronger surface flow should really preclude widespread fog development in areas where clearing occurs in portions of central Iowa. In saying this, some patchy fog remains possible into sunrise, especially north, and trends will continue to be monitored. Although clouds are expected to increase into Tuesday, temperatures will still be quite warm with a run at some record high temperatures today. See the climate section for details. Warm temperatures will continue into midweek with a run at even the low 70s in the west/southwest Tuesday. Record temperatures Tuesday/17th are all higher than today/16th and thus are not likely to be challenged despite the very warm temperatures in the 60s to even 70!

Besides the warmth, increased mixing will lead to some breezy winds by this afternoon, especially south, which may result in elevated fire danger. Cloud cover could limit a bit, but some clearing/thinning of the clouds into this afternoon paired with the dry fuels and dry conditions could easily promote fire spread should a fire start. This is even more true on Tuesday when stronger winds are expected as gusts reach towards 25-35 mph+. More moisture should keep minimum relative humidity values higher Tuesday but caution is certainly advised.

Precipitation chances return Tuesday evening with scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms possible, as detailed below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Mostly sunny skies and light winds made for a pleasant Sunday across the state. Satellite imagery shows an area of stratus/fog in north- central Kansas. This represents where our moisture plume is, and it will be advected in on the LLJ tonight. The surface warm front will bring in a blanket of stratus and accompanying fog, stalling somewhere across the central or north Monday into Tuesday. Both fog and clouds could be a feature throughout the day. In the warm sector, the LLJ wind max continues through the day in Missouri, primed for an additional push of moisture and stratus in the evening and overnight. The most noticeable change is to the high temperatures, especially in the north with the warm front. Similar adjustments may be needed on Tuesday depending on where the warm front lies then.

Eventually, the warm front will be picked up by a surface low associated with a negatively-tilted shortwave trough ejecting from the northern Rockies. Winds will increase as the pressure gradient increases, leading to gusty winds, especially across the south. Dew points in the NBM are likely running too high in the south Tuesday, where some clearing may allow for better mixing and decreasing dew points. This is when and where the chances for elevated fire weather conditions are greatest. The EML will reach into Iowa, steepening midlevel lapse rates. A trend this forecast issuance was a delay in the occlusion mentioned yesterday, leading to an uptick in precipitation for portions of central Iowa. Thunderstorms will be possible given the midlevel lapse rates ranging from 7 to 8 C/km. Depending on available boundary layer moisture, there could be more CAPE available, increasing the chance of thunderstorms. The SPC has a general thunder outlook for most all of Iowa.

A pattern change arrives behind Tuesday night's system. Broad troughing in the western CONUS will usher in cooler air in the Plains, dropping temperatures closer to normal for mid February. Lee- side troughing is favored in this pattern, indicating an active pattern. Precipitation will be possible to end the work week (30-40% chance on Thursday and Friday).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period at all the terminals. There are just a few streaks of high clouds early this afternoon, but will see an increase in cloud cover tonight with ceilings lower through the end of the period. There is high confidence these will remain VFR through the valid period with any chance of MVFR ceilings over northern Iowa after this period. Breezy winds over southern Iowa this afternoon will diminish into tonight, but will increase from the southeast up to 15 to 25 knots with gusts of 20 to around 30 knots by midday Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Forecast and Record High Temperatures for Select Central Iowa cities on Monday, February 16...

=========================================== | Monday | Period | Fcst Record/ | of City | High Year | Record =========================================== Mason City 57 63/1981 1903-Present Waterloo 61 62/1981 1895-Present Des Moines 65 66/1981 1878-Present Ottumwa 66 65/2017 1923-Present ===========================================

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.