textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- A few scattered snow showers on Saturday will pass across Iowa. Very little in the way of snow accumulation will occur. For those that experience a snow shower, a brief period of reduced visibility due to blowing snow is expected.

- Colder Saturday and Sunday, then warming back into the 40s to near 50 Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Mostly clear conditions today with high pressure across the area, between yesterday's departing low and tonight's incoming low. The incoming elongated longwave trough is quickly identified in GOES water vapor imagery, stretching from the upper midwest all the way to the desert southwest. Leading high level clouds out ahead of the trough have reached western Iowa this afternoon and cloud cover will continue to increase across the area this afternoon and evening. This elongated trough contains a northern and southern moisture stream and the latest model data supports a synoptic progression where these phase just east of the area overnight tonight. As the embedded surface low associated with the southern stream lifts across Missouri and into Illinois, the northern precipitation shield will skim across southern and southeast Iowa. This brings a chance for light rain and snow to the area. Moisture is primarily focused south of the area across Missouri and soundings show a substantial dry layer that any precipitation would need to overcome in order to make to the ground. As such, very little to no accumulation is anticipated overnight. Further north weak forcing from the northern wave will skim northern Iowa overnight. This is lacking moisture and may squeeze out flurries, but again nothing notable with this either.

By Saturday morning the stream will have phased east of the area with the consolidated upper level cutoff low northeast of the area. As winds shift to out of the northwest the cold air advection kicks in, along with increasing breezy winds and wrap around moisture. Model soundings have 30-35+ kts at the top of a mixed layer (which is steep in a few cases, standby for more on that). While cold air advection and subsidence is not the strongest we've seen this season and the highest gusts may not be realized, gusts of 25-30+ mph at the surface are expected. As previous mentioned, those soundings do have a few hours of steep low level lapse rates as the secondary cold front moves through, along with shallow saturation through the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). Omega overlaps with the DGZ but is modest at around -5 to -10 ubar/s. All together, expect that as the wrap around moisture and cold air advection pushes across Iowa on Saturday, a few scattered snow showers will likely develop. And while they will not produce much in the way of accumulating snow, some visibility reduction is possible from blowing snow. Right now is does not look like the environment would be supportive of squall development.

Colder conditions stick around through Sunday, but as the trough pushes east southerly flow returns in the afternoon. This will kick start warm air advection back into the area. temperatures Monday and Tuesday return to the 40s to low 50s. A clipper drops out of Canada and into the midwest Wednesday, pulling cold air with it as it digs across the central and eastern US. More seasonable cold air will move into the area, though there is less confidence in the associated precipitation impacts at this range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail much of the period. Overnight, an area of stratus will move across the state with a chance for light snow in southeast Iowa. For stratus appears to remain above MVFR criteria, but is may come close as ceilings come down after 00-03z. Snow will skim southeast Iowa with impacts possible at KOTM. The main area of precipitation is expected south of the area into Missouri, but have included a prob30 group at KOTM to account for the potential. On Saturday isolated snow showers will pass across Iowa from northwest to southeast. These will be quite isolated and short lived, so have not included in TAFs at this time. Diminished ceilings, however, were lowered for the timeframe when these showers might pass through.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.