textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly cooler today with light to occasionally breezy winds out of the south. Breeziest conditions over western Iowa.

- Notably warmer Sunday and especially Monday, when temperatures will climb into the 60s across central and southwestern Iowa.

- Relatively cooler in the latter half of next week with daily highs in the 30s/40s, and persistent but low (20-30%) precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

From Saturday through Monday modest thermal ridging will attempt to build overhead, being briefly interrupted by a weak mid-level shortwave moving through late Saturday night into Sunday. Despite this, a gradual and steady warm advection trend aloft will also translate to the surface each day. On Monday the axis of the ridge will be overhead, skies will be sunny, and low-level flow will be moderate from the south southwest. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure trough will be present over the High Plains, with an affective warm front stretching eastward from the trough somewhere near the Iowa/Minnesota border. This setup is very conducive to warming, with the only limiting factor seeming to be the modest near-surface flow and mixing depth. Nevertheless, temperatures should soar into the lower 60s in our central and southwestern counties, and into the 50s across most of the remainder of our forecast area. The daily record high of 61 will be threatened at Des Moines, but at most other sites the records appear to be safe unless temperatures significantly overachieve the current forecast. Regardless, Monday will be the most pleasant day in quite some time for most outdoor interests and, dare we say it, provide just a little taste of the Spring weather that will eventually come.

From Tuesday onward a more or less zonal flow regime will set up at 500 MB, with multiple perturbations moving through the flow. The first of these will push the aforementioned High Plains trough eastward across Iowa around late Monday night/Tuesday and end the warm weather, but even thereafter temperatures will remain moderate for much of next week with daily highs generally in the upper 30s to 40s from Wednesday through next Friday. Low (20-30%) precipitation chances are also forecast during this time frame, but overall given the relatively weak and transient nature of the forcing mechanisms in play, the temporal coverage and magnitude of precipitation potential is relatively low. The most likely impacts, if any, would be from any light snow or freezing precipitation affecting roads but even that threat seems limited for now. Obviously the predictability of such features in zonal flow at this forecast range is not high, so stay tuned for forecast updates in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1149 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will increase this afternoon and evening from west to east with gusts of 20-25 kts expected. Cloud cover will also increase with VFR stratus across all sites. In eastern Iowa light scattered showers are expected, remaining east of TAF sites.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.