textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler weather continues through the weekend, with highs in the upper 30s to 40s and lows in the upper teens to 20s, while remaining dry.

- Gradual warming with dry conditions are expected through the first half of the upcoming work week through the 50s, followed with returning chances for precipitation late Wednesday or Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

The latest surface analysis shows high pressure centered between Hudson Bay and the northern Great Lakes, which has kept skies mostly clear across the region today. Current temperatures range from the upper 30s across northern Iowa to the mid 40s in southeastern Iowa.

Through the remainder of the afternoon and much of the forecast period, surface high pressure will remain dominant. However, lingering upper-level troughing and mid-level moisture just east of the forecast area will maintain cold northerly flow and encourage stratocumulus cloud development this afternoon. Overnight into Saturday, upper-level ridging and associated height rises will build into the region, shifting 850 and 700 mb winds to a more favorable trajectory. Even as brisk 500 and 300 mb flow persists overhead, developing low-level WAA will initiate a gradual warming trend on Saturday that continues through the weekend. Despite this rebound, temperatures will remain seasonally cool, with highs reaching the lower 40s today and mid 40s on Saturday before climbing into the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trajectory, dipping into the low to mid 20s through Sunday morning before moderating into the upper 20s to lower 30s Sunday night into Monday morning.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

The extended forecast will begin as a continuation of the short-term pattern, as deterministic models keep the region under persistent upper-level ridging. This synoptic setup will allow temperatures to warm into the low to mid 60s by Thursday and Friday. Meanwhile, beginning Tuesday, an upper-level Pacific trough will move onshore and traverse the western CONUS, with leeside cyclogenesis east of the Rockies by late Wednesday afternoon. As this developing low- pressure system ejects northeastward out of the Plains, rain showers will overspread the area from the southwest starting Thursday morning as the region enters the system's advancing precipitation shield.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Clear skies and light winds (5kts or lower) are expected as Iowa is under the influence of high pressure. Winds will gradually shift from being out of the north to out of the south through the TAF period, though with the shift taking several hours and winds remaining light, minimal impacts are expected. Guidance hints at the potential for fog across central Iowa which could impact KDSM tonight, however, low confidence has led to no mention in the TAF and will be reassessed with the 06z issuance.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.