textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions expanding across Iowa this afternoon and through the evening. Gusts of 20-25 mph expected.

- Temperatures warm Sunday and then peak on Monday when high reach the 50s to low 60s.

- Seasonally mild conditions in the 30s-40s this week. Weak embedded waves may bring light precipitation chances mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

An elongated surface low is in place across the Dakotas to Nebraska this afternoon with associated high clouds streaming into Iowa. The pressure gradient ahead of the low is enhanced with southeast winds gusting 20-25 mph (a few 30+) in western Iowa. The low is expected to weaken as it lifts east, though breezy conditions will still expand across Iowa as this occurs. Model soundings indicate 20-25+ kts through the top of the mixed layer this afternoon until mixing diminishes at sunset and a weak nighttime inversion sets up. Even so, with the enhanced pressure gradient conditions remain breezy with gusts of 20+ mph into tonight.

The western US ridge slides east into the midwest this week with warm air advection pushing into southwest Iowa Sunday afternoon. Temperatures are maximized on Monday with a shortwave passing north of Iowa that will put Iowa firmly in the warm sector with good southwest flow into the state. With low dewpoints in the mid 30s expect deep mixing allowing temperatures to warm to the high side of the guidance envelope. Have blended towards the 75th percentile on temperatures to better account for warming potential. The Euro is further south with the northern shortwave and increased cloud cover in northern Iowa will prevent further warming. Will need to watch this closely and adjust temperatures accordingly depending on the track of that wave.

By Monday evening the trailing cool front from the northern wave drags across Iowa. This will moderate temperatures Tuesday and beyond, cooler than Monday but still mild for this time of year. Iowa remains on the northern edge of the thermal ridge through this week with weak embedded shortwaves passing across the area. Light precipitation is possible with these midweek, though impacts at this time appear low with light QPF. The next more impactful system may arrive next weekend but model guidance is split at this time. Details will be better determined in the next several days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions to prevail with cloud cover increasing, lowest clouds over the northeast. Highest winds focus in the northeast over the next 6 hours, becoming variable to southeast elsewhere by 12z.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.