textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow chances up to 20% over the northern half of Iowa, mainly tonight. A dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation possible.

- Dry conditions Tuesday and beyond with temperatures near to below normal early in the week, then above normal by Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

The overall weather pattern will continue to feature northwesterly flow, which will bring several clippers through the region. These will largely be moisture limited so no significant precipitation is expected through next weekend. While temperatures will be well above where they were early in the weekend, they will be on the cooler side of normal today and tomorrow before rising to above normal by Thursday and then staying near to perhaps a bit above normal through next weekend. Let's discuss more of the details.

Clouds cover the state this morning per GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics RGB imagery. These clouds will be stubborn today, though some breaks will be possible over eastern Iowa. However, upper level water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough/clipper descending the Rockies over Montana this morning, which will race towards Iowa and bring increasing clouds by this afternoon. Models generally agree on some level of light QPF/light snow moving into portions of northern Iowa with varied timing of arrival generally after sunset this evening. The 0z NAM remains the more aggressive model in terms of forcing and QPF with cross sections showing strong lift in the not fully saturated dendritic growth zone, though the 6z NAM is more muted in this signal. Given the signal in multiple model camps, have expanded the PoP area over northern Iowa, which will drift southward overnight and dissipate as lift weakens. Any snow accumulation will be a dusting to maybe a few tenths of an inch.

Surface high pressure will push south over Iowa on Tuesday bringing a cooler day with highs around 20 degrees over northeastern Iowa to the low 30s over southwestern Iowa. As the high moves away, additional weak shortwave energy will pass overhead into Wednesday. While there is low level saturation per cross sections, there is little if any lift so the forecast remains dry. Conditions will be turning milder on Wednesday and more so Thursday when highs in the 40s are likely over the western half of the state. Late in the week, low pressure will dive out of central Canada into the eastern Great Lakes with a surface front pushing through Iowa on Friday. The trend continues to focus this low farther away from Iowa with precipitation chances now relegated to Wisconsin. Breezier winds still look on track for Friday. Beyond the cold front, cooler conditions are expected Friday and Saturday, but the mid-level pattern in the ensemble data points to ridging trying to build into the region late in the weekend or early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR stratus is impacting much of central and southwest Iowa today. While this afternoon a few sites may see ceilings rise near VFR, expect to see MVFR conditions most of the day. KMCW has cleared the stratus deck for now with KALO expected within the next 1-2 hours. Both will see stratus return later in the period. Light snow or flurries are also possible this evening and overnight, mainly at sites KFOD/KDSM, however with dry air in place confidence in occurrence is low so have not included in TAFs at this time.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.