textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy on Monday. Highs in the 50s north and east with mid to upper 60s central and southwest. Southerly winds may gust 25+ mph.

- Seasonally mild conditions in the 30s-40s this week. Rain and snow chances (30-40%) return Wednesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A dry airmass across Iowa has allowed for abundant sunshine this afternoon with weak southeast flow into Iowa. Clear skies overnight will allow temperatures to drop off into the 20s. With dry air in place radiational fog is not expected, with one exception. Parts of far southeast Iowa have marginally higher available moisture and soundings indicate shallow saturation beneath the inversion for a few hours early Monday morning. This may allow for patchy fog development. Confidence in fog development is low and should it develop, expect it would be patchy and mainly confined to low lying areas. Similarly, with warm temperatures today allowing for some ground thaw, it is possible that patchy road frost may develop on Monday morning. Again, this would be more likely in southeast Iowa where there is better moisture. Road frost can result in unexpected slick spots on roads and care should be used when travel on Monday morning in the event that road frost does develop.

By Monday the thermal ridge will shift further east, along with a shortwave passing north of the area, pulling warm air advection into the area. There are a few important considerations for Monday's temperature and wind forecast. First, with the dry airmass in place expect to see deep mixing across the area. Model soundings indicate 25-30 kts at the top of the mixed layer, making for a breezy day on Monday. As such, have increased winds and gusts on Monday. Especially in southwest Iowa, there is the potential for deeper mixing where temperatures and winds over perform compared to the current forecast and will need to monitor for adjustments. If this happens the current upper 60s forecast in southwest Iowa could make a run at 70. At the same time, CAMs indicate a more southerly track for the shortwave expected to move across Minnesota on Monday. The HRRR, RAP, NSSL-WRF, and NAM all pull very light precipitation across northern Iowa. Expect this is overdone with dry profiles and have maintained a dry forecast, however this could result in slightly more widespread cloud cover. If so, that may limit the extent of the warmer temperatures and deeper mixing. For now expect higher cloud cover north of highway 20.

The cool front sinks across Iowa overnight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures through the upcoming week remain seasonably mild in the 30s to 40s as Iowa remains on the northern periphery of the thermal ridge. By late Wednesday into Thursday a shortwave passes across the, bringing the next chance for precipitation to the state. Uncertainty in details remains at this time with differences in model guidance, however it does appear that rain (south) and accumulating snow (north) will be possible. Another, more robust, system passes across the central US this weekend, however model guidance has been inconsistent run-to-run with the track and confidence is low on impacts to Iowa at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail. Fog signal remains for KOTM, but is expected to be shallow and short lived. Added MIFG to reflect this and due to consistency of fog over the last 24 hours of model runs. Winds will be out of the southeast and take on a more southerly component after 12z, gusting over 20kts area-wide for much of the day. A wind shift will take place right at the end of the TAF period where northwest winds will begin to prevail.

CLIMATE

Issued at 232 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Forecast and Record High Temperatures for Select Central Iowa Cities on Monday...

============================================= | Monday | Period | Forecast Record/ | of City | High Year | Record ============================================= Mason City 49 58/1976 1903- Waterloo 50 57/1976 1895- Des Moines 64 61/1976 1878- Ottumwa 60 68/1943 1923- =============================================

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.