textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills in the twenties below zero continue through the morning. Cold temperatures last through the day today, before warming into Monday.

- Breezy winds overnight tonight may lead to isolated blowing/drifting snow, especially in northwest and north central Iowa.

- Turning milder and dry to start the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 231 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Temperatures continue to fall over the area this morning, with lows generally in the single digits below zero everywhere. Light to breezy winds around 10 to 15 mph are resulting in wind chills in the minus 20s to near minus 30 over much of northern into central and eastern Iowa. With clear skies overhead, temperatures will continue to cool through sunrise. Fortunately, the high pressure center is starting to make it's way into western Iowa and will continue eastward through the next few hours. This should help to diminish winds as the tighter pressure gradients move east. Therefore, while temperatures will continue to cool this morning, wind chills should remain steady as the winds diminish through that same time. The Cold Weather Advisory remains unchanged and in effect until 10 am this morning.

Little change in pattern is expected under the high pressure during most of the morning, keeping skies clear and temperatures cold, especially in areas with the deepest snowpack. Later this afternoon and into the evening the high pressure will begin to depart east, bringing warmer return flow from the west. This will cause temperatures to actually increase through the night and into Monday morning. Accompanying the warmer air will be increasing winds out of the south. With the recent fluffy snow on the ground, we may see some snow drifting across roadways tonight into Monday morning, especially in the northwest portions of the state. Fortunately, sustained winds should only be around 20 mph at their strongest, with gusts up to about 30 mph. The blowing snow model indicates a low probability (< 10%) of seeing significant blowing snow/visibility reductions with 20 mph sustained winds and the warming temperatures. That said, not ruling out at least brief periods of minor blowing/drifting snow occurring with some of the stronger wind gusts. Winds then diminish through the day on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

As the high pressure slides off to the southeast through Sunday, surface flow will become from the south and strong low level warm air advection will spread over the northern Plains. While the forcing is rather impressive, forecast soundings show a lot of dry air thanks to the departing Arctic high so forecast will remain dry. With ridging pushing the jet stream north of the state, milder air will arrive. The first part of next week will therefore be dry and have above normal temperatures likely by Tuesday and certainly Wednesday with varying degrees of melting of the existing snowpack. A shortwave trough moving over the southern Canadian prairies Tuesday into Wednesday will send a cold front into the state. While there is appreciable forcing, forecast soundings still indicate an overall dry column unsupportive of widespread precipitation. A more amplified shortwave trough will push east from the Pacific Northwest Wednesday into the upper Mississippi River Valley on Thursday with an associated 985mb-ish surface low pressure somewhere north of Iowa. While timing and placement of the synoptic features remains in flux this far out, a window of precipitation is possible for some portions of Iowa.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the terminals through the period. Outside of some high clouds, mostly clear skies are generally expected. Winds will gradually shift southwesterly into the afternoon, becoming breezy by the evening with gusts up to 15-20 knots. LLWS is possible across the state, starting after 00z at KFOD and KMCW and around or just after the end of the current period at KALO, KDSM and KOTM.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-045>050-059>062-073>075- 084>086-095>097.