textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions today followed by critical fire weather conditions Thursday. Both days featuring gusty winds and dry conditions.

- Windy conditions continue--and worsen--Thursday night into early Friday, especially across northern Iowa. Wind gusts over 50mph likely.

- Monitoring a wintry system this weekend that will bring travel impacts to the region.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As rain and storms pushed to the east overnight, a broad band of snow from a northern stream synoptic shortwave began to enter Iowa from the northwest. This round of snow is primarily fueled by Pacific moisture and will yield low-end snowfall amounts for this reason. Places like Estherville could see amounts over an inch, but most of the area will remain under that value, owed also to the soil temperatures being near 40 degrees. Subsidence, CAA, and a tight pressure gradient will lead to a breezy and cool Wednesday. 30mph gusts will be common throughout the day. Elevated fire weather concerns exist in the west due in part by a surface high advecting in dry air.

An upper-level jet will traverse the northwest flow across the northern CONUS and make the region susceptible to more waves through this weekend. The next of note will deepen quickly and approach the state later Thursday. Southwest flow ahead of the wave will boost highs, and drop relative humidity values. The pressure gradient will tighten across western Iowa and, but momentum transfer of wind will be countered by WAA and lift. Still, the average wind speed in the PBL is 40kts and will result in gusts over 25mph. A Red Flag Warning may be needed in southwest Iowa due to these winds and RH values dropping into the mid 20s. Winds will become increasingly impactful Thursday night, especially in northern Iowa. A cold front will pass after sunset in tandem with a PV anomaly, allowing for mixing up to around 850mb to ensue overnight. Winds at that layer will be over 50kts, and strong subsidence will aid in transferring these winds to the surface. The northern-most two rows of counties in the area will see the highest, most prolonged winds as the 850mb wind max settles over southern MN after 1 AM. Advisory-level winds will persist through much of Friday morning. There will likely be a Wind Advisory needed for this timeframe, and a High Wind Warning will be considered for Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As the jet max moves off, a northern stream jet will continue to favor activity into the extended. Another feature is progged to eject from the PNW and into the upper Rockies, deepening a surface low across the Plains and Midwest. While there are location discrepancies in model camps, the intensification of the system as it passes points to another period of gusty winds as well as cooling temperatures for Iowa. The likely chances of precipitation in northern Iowa reflect the band of snow that will set up on the northern flank of the system. Wherever that snow band sets up, it will most likely be accompanied by winds strong enough to blow the snow around, exacerbating travel impacts in the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Additional rain showers are expected to move into southern Iowa after 09z and through much of the morning, though the overall potential for storms is low. Otherwise, will see a larger band of rain switching to snow arriving into northwest Iowa after 09z and track east/southeast across the state. Could see a period of lower vsbys from more efficient snowfall over northern Iowa, with otherwise largely rain at KDSM and KOTM, though cannot rule out a brief transition to snow. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings are expected across the terminals until around 18z, before improving through the afternoon. Winds will become northwesterly over the next several hours, increasing as gusts up to 25-30 knots are expected.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.