textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and mostly dry conditions through the weekend. Light snow/flurry possible along the Iowa/Missouri border tonight. No accumulations are expected.

- Breezy on Sunday followed by overnight temperatures near zero and wind chills in the single digits below zero into Monday morning.

- Warmer air begins to work in from the west through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Skies are beginning to clear out over the area early this afternoon, revealing the swath of snowfall left in wake of yesterday's system. Amounts across the area were quite robust, with anywhere from 5 to 8 inches from western into central Iowa, then generally 8 to 12 inches from Interstate 35/Des Moines and northeast through Waterloo. Far northwestern Iowa between Waterloo and Mason City then up towards Decorah were the real winners though, with snowfall reports of ranging from 13 to 16 inches in a narrow swath. Satellite imagery this afternoon also shows the sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the band separating bare ground near Forest City and Algona, from the 6 to 12" of snow in Fort Dodge to Hampton.

Winds have diminished quite a bit from last night, but remain light to breezy out of the west northwest this afternoon. Skies will be clear through the afternoon and early evening, and winds will continue to diminish, which will be favorable for a few hours of efficient cooling after sunset. This is especially true over the snow pack, where air temperatures will cool quicker than those with bare ground. However, mid- and upper- level cloud cover from a second, weaker shortwave to our south will work in from the southwest tonight, as will a broad area of stratus dropping into northeastern Iowa. Both of these cloud decks will work to insulate the ground, preventing temperatures from completely plummeting in southwestern and northeastern Iowa. That said, there will still be areas that remain clear through most of the night. Clear skies, in combination with the fresh snowpack and the recent warmth swaying the NBM bias-correction, overnight lows are likely too warm. Therefore, have dropped the populated NBM temperatures tonight, primarily over the snow pack.

The aforementioned shortwave passing to our south does find enough moisture to produce some light snow over Kansas and Missouri tonight, but will experience drier low-level air in Iowa from the high pressure overhead. Depending on the model you look at, a brief snow shower does creep into southern Iowa, but these solutions appear to be outliers. If a shower were to make it into southern Iowa, it would likely be light with minimal impacts. Therefore, have left the forecast dry for this evening and will continue to monitor for any more robust snow showers.

Aside from the wave to our south overnight tonight, the forecast remains cold and dry through the weekend. Have maintained the trend of lowering temperatures a few degrees over the snowpack through the weekend while the NBM begins to get a better handle on temperatures in this colder regime. With the northerly surface flow persisting through Saturday and Sunday, highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits to teens will be common. The coldest night looks to Sunday night into Monday, as another push of surface high pressure fills in behind another upper level wave on Sunday, which will also bring breezy conditions during the day on Sunday. Assuming skies remain clear of any stratus Sunday night into Monday morning, the reinforcing push of cold air, clear skies and diminishing winds by early Monday will allow temperatures to approach zero and wind chills to fall below zero.

Temperatures remain cool on Monday, but relief looks to be on the way through the middle of next week, as 500 mb ridging develops overhead bringing warmer air into the state. The snowpack will limit how warm high temperatures can get during the day, but advecting warmer southerly air into the area will at least start to chip away at snow on the ground. The longevity of this warm air will be dependent on the path of a few waves showing up in the pattern through the middle of next week, which guidance is far from any agreement on at this range. For now, the main takeaway is cold temperatures continuing through the weekend with some potential melting into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 531 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

MVFR ceilings remain over KMCW and KALO early this evening, though conditions may improve at KALO shortly and remain until sunrise before the stratus descends southeastward, while KMCW likely keeps the low clouds. These clouds, along with additional clouds lifting north into Iowa through the morning hours will lead to midlevel clouds at KDSM, KOTM, and KFOD, though hovering near MVFR by late morning to afternoon. Winds will increase Saturday out of the northwest, with gusts up to 15-20 knots, highest north and east.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.