textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow chances remaining likely Tuesday evening/night (70-90% north and northeast), with accumulations up to 1-2 inches expected.

- Additional snow showers possible (20-40%) Wednesday afternoon to evening in northern Iowa

- Strong Arctic airmass to surge in later this week, with very cold temperatures around Friday-Saturday. Low temperatures Saturday morning will be well below zero statewide, and may approach -20 degrees in some northern/northeastern areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Very chilly conditions remain over Iowa this afternoon despite the mostly sunny skies today, which is thanks to the remaining breezy northwest flow overhead as surface high pressure centered over eastern Kansas/Oklahoma continues to slide through the region. Temperatures are reading in the single digits north and in the mid teens south, with the breezy winds causing for frigid wind chills around -10 to -20 degrees north and in the -5 to -10 degree range south. Would only expect warming by just a few more degrees yet today given the limited window for warming that remains before sunset. After a brief period of cloud cover moving through later this afternoon to early evening, skies should clear out tonight into Tuesday, which paired with light winds will lead to very cold values in the single digits below zero north and in the single digits above zero south. The aforementioned surface high pressure will continue to quickly slide out of the region later tonight into Tuesday morning, with conditions expected to remain relatively quiet during that time.

By Tuesday, a mid-level trough over the Pacific NW and developing surface low into Montana/Wyoming is still on track to drop southeast into the Central Plains through the day, with a ''warm'' front expected to setup over northern Iowa as this low pressure becomes centered over Iowa later Tuesday afternoon to evening. Relatively weak WAA into the state will allow for an improvement in temperatures during the day, with highs expected to reach the upper teens north and in the low 30s south, leading to a rather notable temperature gradient over the state. In relation to the warm front, favorable forcing for lift, along with higher moisture content over northern Iowa Tuesday evening is expected to result in the development of an band of snow over that area, then translating into eastern Iowa and Wisconsin/Northern Illinois into Wednesday morning per NAM/GFS, with the bulk of CAM guidance also indicating a similar track. The Euro however does indicate a potential for more widespread coverage of potential snow late Tuesday into Wednesday, but with the bulk of better moisture still north/east as earlier trends were indicating, this potential for any notable accumulations mainly south of Highway 20 would be low. A deeper dive into forecast soundings over north/east Iowa indicate deep saturation and lift through much of the profile, including through the DGZ Tuesday evening that would indicate efficient snow production, which keeps higher confidence on accumulating snow in these areas. Confidence decreases further west and south as the more favorable moisture and lift look to generally be out of phase with each other, as the better forcing occurs early on but little saturation to go with it, followed by better moisture return into Wednesday morning but the loss of better lift seems to occur. Though accumulating snow looks much less likely in these locations, cannot rule out some flurries to light snow showers, with little if any accumulations expected at this time. For those traveling in north/east Iowa, expect potential winter weather impacts to travel, especially during the Tuesday evening commute. Of course, any shift in the snow band further south of northern Iowa would lead to a notable forecast change to locations over central Iowa, so will be keeping a close eye on this over the next several hours.

As the trough pivots across the Midwest into Wednesday, the surface low will lift northeast across the Great Lakes, which will allow for a short period of dry conditions across Iowa before a cold front arrives over northwest Iowa into Wednesday afternoon, tracking southeast across the state into the evening. Will warm up ahead of the front's arrival given a brief switch to southwesterly flow, as values peak in the upper 20s northeast and in the upper 30s to low 40s southwest. A look at soundings does show instability setting up with good forcing for lift that would indicate the potential for convective snow showers as the cold front passes through, though the main limiting factor in play at this time would be the lack of near surface saturation, so something to definitely keep an eye on. This potential in terms of coverage looks to be defined mainly over northern into eastern Iowa Wednesday afternoon to evening, with any accumulations looking to be low at this time. Any snow showers would be accompanied by blustery conditions, with shifting northwest winds following the cold front gusting to 20-30 mph, and isolated to 35 mph over northwest Iowa that could blow around any snow that may fall. An area of high pressure drops southeast across the western portion of the Central Plains late Wednesday evening into Thursday, with dry conditions anticipated across Iowa, while overnight lows fall into the single digits north and in the mid teens south.

The primary synoptic feature of interest as we get to the latter portion of the work week will be the area of mid-level low pressure that will slowly descend southward into the Upper Midwest, which is expected to send very cold weather down into much of the CONUS. For Iowa specifically, a frontal boundary is expected to drop south across the state Thursday, bringing this cold air into the area through the latter parts of the day and into Friday morning. With this boundary, there is some indication of moisture return and at least weak forcing that could result in a window of potential light snow showers Thursday afternoon to evening, though confidence is very low given questions on the extent of dry air into Iowa, so have left a dry forecast at this time and will continue to monitor. As mentioned, bitter cold weather will arrive Thursday evening into Friday, which will lead to overnight lows to drop significantly in the -10 to -20 degree range north and in the 0 to -10 degree range south, with lingering breezy winds leading to dangerous wind chill values in the -30 to -40 degree range over northern Iowa and -10 through -20 degrees south by Friday morning. Those planning to be outdoors for any period of time need to dress appropriately, as frostbite can occur very rapidly in these conditions. Outside of the cold, dry conditions should otherwise prevail through for the end of the work week, with a large area of surface high pressure settling overhead into the weekend, which will bring more widespread frigid conditions. Highs Friday and Saturday are only expected in the single digits below zero north/northeast and in the single digits above zero south/west, along with low temperatures well below zero for the greater majority of Iowa Saturday and Sunday mornings.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR clouds have cleared out across northern Iowa and are now across central and southern Iowa. By morning this round of clouds will have shifted out of the area with winds shifting around to southerly. Cloud cover will increase through morning. Light snow will reach KFOD first in the late afternoon, expanding to KMCW/KALO through the evening. This area of snow is expected to brush KDSM and included a prob30 group there. Mainly MVFR conditions are expected in the snow, however periods of IFR conditions are possible.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.