textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, becoming sunny today as high pressure moves across the state

- Widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms return for Saturday through Sunday morning

- The active pattern continues into early next week with severe thunderstorm chances returning for Monday and especially Tuesday

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The springtime roller coast continues as Iowa is perfectly positioned to be influenced by a warm front that has retreated south (today), will surge into the state (Saturday) bringing widespread rain, and lift north of the state (Sunday and beyond) bringing an air mass of much above normal temperatures along with much higher than normal moisture content. This will also ripen ingredients necessary for severe weather potential early next week. More on that in the Long Term section.

Showers have mostly exited the CWA early this morning as the surface high and associated subsidence moves in. A thick cloud shield remains, however, but this too will slowly erode NW-SE this morning, resulting in generally mostly sunny skies by this afternoon. Temperatures today will be seasonally cool (up to 5 degrees below normal). The surface high pressure pushes into the Great Lakes tonight, turning winds easterly and eventually southeasterly by Saturday morning as the warm front begins to march back northward into Iowa. South of the warm front, good theta-e advection will occur Saturday as reservoir of gulf moisture to the south is accessed. This set-up will be favorable for a period of widespread light-moderate rain showers, along with a few embedded thunderstorms for Saturday and Saturday night. Compared to what fell across central IA yesterday, rainfall amounts looks less. Even so, some locations may pick up to 1-1.5 inches. Rates aren't expected to be high enough to create a significant flooding issue (mostly within bank rises). Instability parameters are meager Saturday as well, so don't anticipate severe concerns.

Timing difference begin to emerge for Sunday leading to less confidence in specific details. Depending on whether or how long showers linger Sunday morning, will likely be the key factor in coverage and strength of any afternoon/evening convection. If recovery happens quicker or showers don't linger as long in the morning, would expect the potential for a few strong storms mainly west and north - aligned with latest SPC Day 3 Outlook. Warm air advection will boost highs into the 70s Sunday. It will also be breezy with gusts of 30-40 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Sunday night should offer a brief reprieve in rainfall chances, although strong moisture and temperature advection will persist. Surface dew points climb into the 60s early in the week. This will put a few record warm low-temperatures in jeopardy - indicative of the anomalously high-moisture content of the air mass. This is supported by PWAT values of 1.25-1.5; which is near the max of climatology for the time of year. These high dew points combine with temperatures in the low-mid 80s; along with an approaching jet steak and associated trough to set the stage for several days of severe weather potential for Monday, and especially on Tuesday (which is the most likely time when trough and associated kinematics moves through). It will be important to pay attention to this period early next week as forecast details become more clear.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Pesky IFR/MVFR ceilings are still holding on this morning at all terminals with the exception of KFOD. Latest satellite pix depict slow erosion from the north and west, but expect them to persist at least for the next several hours. Still expect them to lift and decrease by 15-18z; returning to VFR and eventually SKC. Next slug of moisture & widespread shows associated with the next system arrives just beyond this TAF cycle on Saturday.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Swath of yesterday's rainfall fell along a west to east corridor generally one county north and two counties south of Interstate 80; where amounts of 1 to 2 inches were common per MRMS QPE. As expected, rivers have responded, but all have been within bank rises as of this morning. Some of the rises have already began to slow or turn. The active pattern continues into early next week, which when considering cumulative effects daily may elevate flood potential. Location and timing of QPF still remains uncertain and will drive where any potential high water sets up. Bottom line - those with sensitivities to river flooding will want to stay on top of the forecast through the first half of next week.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.