textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the low to mid 60s central and north this afternoon.

- Above average temperatures highly likely this week (90% confidence) but highs will be challenged by cloud cover in parts of the state.

- Rain chances move in, mainly north, on Tuesday night into Wednesday (40% chance). A few thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Dry air has won the fight against precipitation thus far today and most of the cloud cover has focused over the southeast. Beneath the thicker clouds, dew point depressions are around 20 degrees. The dryness and solar insolation have pushed highs into the mid to upper 50s, even beneath the clouds. Central and northern Iowa have ascended into the 60s where clear skies have prevailed longest. The 850 ridge axis will expand in southern and eastern Iowa tonight, leading to patchy fog. Confidence in dense fog is low at this time due to the dry conditions, but localized reduction to visibility are possible, especially in the south. Flow will be benign Sunday and skies will be mostly clear, meaning that 60 degree highs will be probable (75%+ confidence) area-wide. Southwest flow increases late Sunday once the ridge exits. The low-level jet begins to move into Iowa and hold lows in the 40s for much of central Iowa. Theta-e advection will increase low-level moisture Monday, followed by a lifting warm front later that night. Both features point to increasing cloud cover starting in the south and moving north and east. The main impact will be to temperatures, likely causing them to underperform on Monday and Tuesday, mainly east and north. Southwest Iowa may still reach 70 degrees on Tuesday as 850mb temperatures reach low teens overhead.

Meanwhile aloft, the EML reaches Iowa on Tuesday, steepening midlevel lapse rates. A negatively tilted segment of the parent trough in the western CONUS will mature a cyclone in the northern Plains, affecting Iowa late Tuesday. Right now, consensus in that occlusion may take place before the warm conveyor belt reaches Iowa, delaying saturation until the boundary is east of our area. This is why models are struggling to produce precipitation in Iowa along the cold front. Cloudy skies will increase CIN, hedging confidence in elevated showers and thunderstorms, mainly tied to the midlevel saturation with the parent low in southern MN and far northern IA. CAPE at this point is below 300 J/kg.

Another shortwave trough will follow on the heels of Tuesday night's, but its strength depends on the ensemble camp, also leading to uncertainty in temperatures for the second half of the week. The 20% PoPs in the extended reflect the EC ensemble, which presents a more active solution for the state by the end of the week. Solutions diverge on how they handle the western CONUS troughing by this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1023 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the TAFs. The exception is at OTM, where some low clouds and fog will approach from northern Missouri and may affect the terminal for a period around sunrise Sunday. Probability of some impact has reached 50% and have added a TEMPO group for intermittent MVFR ceiling/visibility, however amendments may be needed if the fog and stratus materialize later tonight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Forecast and Record High Temperatures for Select Central Iowa cities on Sunday and Monday...

=========================================================== | Sunday | Monday | Period | Fcst Record/ | Fcst Record/ | of City | High Year | High Year | Record =========================================================== Mason City 56 53/1981 58 63/1981 1903-Present Waterloo 56 71/1921 61 62/1981 1895-Present Des Moines 61 75/1921 64 66/1981 1878-Present Ottumwa 61 63/1984 65 65/2017 1923-Present ===========================================================

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.