textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms are expected off and on today into Monday morning. Pockets of heavy rain are possible and may lead to renewed flooding, especially in areas that have already received heavy rain in the last few days.

- An active week ahead with a larger system bringing strong to severe storms to the area Tuesday through Thursday. Strongest storms are expected on Wednesday.

- Warm and humid conditions through the first half of the week with many areas reaching 90 degrees, then cooling back to the low 80s to finish the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An elongated surface low sits along the western edge of the central and northern plains, allowing for deep moisture transport and waves of theta e advection into the area today. This has resulted in scattered showers with a few thunderstorms off and on today. Convection has struggled to organize with very little available shear and deeply saturated sounding profiles. Daytime heating is expected to help enhance convection late this afternoon with increasing coverage in precipitation, including lightning. Severe chances remain quite low. The final push of convection will occur overnight through Monday morning with convection tapering off from west to east by midday as the low lifts east. In addition to lightning, heavy rain will be the primary concern with convection. The environment remains supportive of efficient rainfall owing to PWATs near 2" and warm cloud layers over 4000 m. The scattered and progressing nature of the convection should help to mitigate most risk, especially in northern Iowa which has missed out on most rain the past few days. In southern Iowa flash flood guidance is closer to 1" with soils more saturated from rain the past several days. Should a pocket of heavier rain set up across southern Iowa, flash flooding will need close monitoring.

Temperatures warm up on Monday behind the precipitation with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. That heat builds into Tuesday with low 90s expected across most of the area. While Tuesday should be mostly dry, we are watching the potential for a nocturnal MCS tracking across Nebraska to reach western Iowa by Tuesday morning. It will be diminishing in strength by around sunrise, though CAMs indicate weak remnants could pass across Iowa into midday. If this does happen the cloud cover may put a damper on the heat expected. It is also worth noting that the environment on Tuesday becomes deeply unstable due to increasing heat and humidity. If MCS is able to maintain strength into Iowa that would help to fuel it, however at this time that scenario looks unlikely.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

The low level jet strengthens Tuesday evening, nosing into western Iowa. This may allow for renewed convection along a lingering outflow from and morning MCS remnants that pass across Iowa earlier in the day. The overall severe threat Tuesday night appears low, however an elevated hailer or gusty wind is possible.

By Wednesday and upper level trough that has been building across the western US will swing into the midwest. With it, a return of deep layer shear that has been lacking in the current flow regime. That will help to organize storms and increase severe storm potential on Wednesday. Right now the associated surface low is set to track across central Minnesota with trailing cold front passing across Iowa on Wednesday afternoon and evening. The environment is deeply unstable ahead of the boundary with 3500-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE in place. Better shear lags the front, though 35-40 kts of 0-6 km shear will still be available and sufficient for severe storms. With good shear, deep instability, and well curved hodographs, all modes of severe weather appear possible on Wednesday. Details will be further refined as it approaches.

The boundary reaches far eastern Iowa with lingering severe chances there on Thursday. Temperatures cool behind the front with highs back to the low 80s to finish out the week. Another cool front with additional precipitation chances looks on track for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Cigs continue to lower across the area this evening with MVFR to IFR cigs developing over parts of northeast Iowa. Expect these cigs to continue to expand overnight. Areas of showers and thunderstorms remain possible overnight, especially east of Interstate 35 including KOTM and KALO. This activity will linger into the mid morning hours. Cigs are expected to improve Monday afternoon with VFR returning late afternoon or evening. Generally light wind through the period, becoming variable at times on Monday.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT Monday for IAZ075-085-086-095>097.