textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool, dry, and breezy conditions are in place all day today.

- Monday will be mild, but chances for light showers creep into northern Iowa by evening.

- Widespread storm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

An MCS is currently diving south from Missouri to Arkansas to Oklahoma ahead of the cold front that passed through the state yesterday. Morning outflow performed well at stabilizing the warm sector and limiting our severe weather yesterday. At the time of writing, a few scattered showers remain in the southeast part of the state at the 850mb wind shift. A stratus deck is advecting in from Minnesota and will arrive in northern Iowa in the next few hours, though this is not handled well by models.

A surface low will continue departing to the east as high pressure fills in this morning. Between the two, the pressure gradient in the low levels will be somewhat tight, and 850mb winds near 30 knots will be in place before sunrise. The enhanced 850mb winds will likely mix out by late morning, but as it does there will be a window this morning shortly after sunrise through the late morning for some wind gusts of 20-25 knots. However, if the cloud deck hangs on until morning, it may limit mixing of higher momentum down to the surface and keep gusts slightly lower. Either way, any remaining stratus will mix out through the early morning and give way to sunny skies across the state for most of the day. Still, strong cold air advection will keep highs seasonably cool in the lower 70s today. The current forecast would put highs across much of the state around 10 degrees below normal.

High pressure and mainly westerly flow dominates on Monday. Highs will be slightly warmer, though it may be partly cloudy across much of the state. A cold front associated with another shortwave embedded in the enhanced 500mb NW flow will be responsible for the next precipitation chances. The front looks to pass Monday evening and CAMs bring a few light showers mainly to the northern half of the state. Thunder is also possible with these showers, as some weak elevated CAPE is present in most model profiles. QPF is expected to be <0.1" in most locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s continue through the first half of the work week, with a steady warming trend through Wednesday. Precipitation chances look to return as soon as Tuesday, although the highest chances will be on Wednesday. Severe weather potential may also return on Wednesday. The storm prediction center has already started to hone in on this threat, with a 15% risk (equivalent to a slight risk, level 2 of 5) for severe weather over the southern half of Iowa for Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 553 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A 6kft stratus deck is waning across northern Iowa, but VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds may gust this morning between 20-25 knots in northern Iowa.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.