textproduct: Des Moines
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Flurries possible northeast this afternoon.
- Chance of snow northeast Wednesday afternoon. Snowfall totals under an inch.
- Cold beginning to the new year with morning lows in the teens and single digits.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
Stratus and high level clouds started to invade from the north this morning. A thermal ridge established a warm layer over the state with highs this afternoon reaching the freezing mark in the southwest half. Warmth won't advance much more than that as a series of clippers will get in the way. The first clipper will bring weak saturation to northeast Iowa, resulting mostly in flurries this evening for places like Mason City and Waverly.
For Wednesday, dry air from an incoming Canadian high raises questions on saturation for Iowa. The main QPF axis is tucked close to the wave itself, affecting northeast Iowa with light snow accumulations. Trends are worth watching for the rest of the state as there will be another weak feature in play just to the west in Nebraska. Low-level Q vectors converge as the thermal ridge temperature gradient compacts with the waves, creating a boundary across Iowa. The RAP has offered a more stagnant progression of the boundary, with most of the sub-DGZ layer saturated for a few hours (freezing drizzle). The NAM and GFS are quick to advect this boundary away due to the high and are also dry as a result. Continuing to side with the dry solutions at this range. CAA drops lows into the teens and single digits to begin 2026.
Temperatures level back out to near average marks for the rest of the week with the warmest temperatures in the southwest. The ridge will eventually win out sometime early next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 514 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025
VFR conditions with light southwest winds expected through the day with MVFR cigs approaching from the north after 00z. Have left a SCT deck for KDSM and KOTM since there's uncertainty as to how far south MVFR cigs will move this period.
DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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