textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms likely overnight (>60%) for the western half of the area. Chances decrease east.

- Low chance (<40%) of showers and storms in the far east Saturday afternoon.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Weather in northwest Iowa Sunday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Sunshine has emerged in local areas this afternoon, but temperatures will have underperformed today. Highs will be near 70 for all but northwest Iowa. A negatively-tilted shortwave trough is ejecting across the Northern Plains this afternoon, dragging a cold front along with it. This front will arrive after midnight in the mid state, brining a quick window of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder early on. Saturation is lost as it moves east and precipitation will fizzle. The boundary will reignite Saturday afternoon during peak heating. This activity has trended just east of the DMX CWA.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A Marginal Risk for Severe Weather was added in for Sunday. This reflects the returning moisture axis as the upper-level ridge builds in. Storms will ignite Sunday night with the LLJ, but will have weaker deep-layer shear to work with. Since storms are nocturnal, they'll be elevated with hail being the primary threat. The remnant moisture from the overnight will stall somewhere in northern Iowa and reignite at peak heating.

A blocking pattern will form for the week and has continued to trend west with each issuance. What this means is Iowa may see increased influence from the eastern trough in the form of height rises and subsidence. A Great Lakes high will reinforce dry air. The upper-level ridge will push temperatures into the 80s. It will be an overall summertime pattern with warm temperatures and diurnally-driven thunderstorms where the moisture axis will reach. Right now, this is most likely in southwest Iowa.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Line of storms associated with a weak front crossing the state will weaken as it continues east overnight. KFOD may see thunderstorms early in the TAF period. Otherwise main impacts to airports will be MVFR ceilings and showers overnight with the advancing line. Will also keep an eye out in southeast Iowa for potential fog development due to light winds and clearish skies ahead of the front. Surface winds will shift from southeast to northwest during the TAF period as the front passes.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.