textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions gradually winding down by this evening.

- Dry conditions are expected to remain over the next several days, with a slow warming trend through the upcoming work week.

- A few periods with overnight/early morning fog are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Weather conditions are rather pleasant for the start of the weekend, with sunny skies over much of Iowa and temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s, values which are a touch higher than originally forecast likely due to notable warm air advection and the clear skies. A snapshot of synoptic features overhead shows a large area of high pressure that is centered over the eastern Great Lakes, with its western fringe extending across much of Iowa. Further west, a mid-level shortwave and weak surface low is noted over North Dakota, with a trailing boundary extending down through eastern South Dakota that is producing rain showers. Radar returns show very light activity ahead of this boundary over northern Iowa, but surface dewpoint depressions around 25-30 degrees are keeping conditions dry, and should remain so through the remainder of the afternoon. A tightened pressure gradient in relation to the proximity of the aforementioned features, and diurnally-driven mixing of the PBL has led to breezy winds into Iowa, especially over the northern/western portions of the state where recorded gusts around 30-35 mph have occurred. The expectation is for similar wind gusts across the north and west through the afternoon yet, with values otherwise around 20-30 mph over the remainder of the forecast area, before decreasing this evening with the gradual loss of sunlight. Into the early evening, the aforementioned boundary will move eastward further, extending into northern Iowa. This activity per some CAM guidance and a few deterministic model members suggest an increase in forcing over northern Iowa as the weak boundary moves overhead, though moisture as noted per soundings and current surface trends is much less favorable. Therefore have kept rain chances very minimal (<10%) over northern Iowa this evening. If better saturation can occur though, any rain amounts that would occur would be very minimal, but should otherwise remain further north into Minnesota/Wisconsin where more favorable moisture presence and forcing is located.

Tonight, clear skies are generally expected, with winds turning light, especially over southern Iowa. Some model members indicate a low potential for patchy fog formation into Sunday morning, particularly in low valley areas, but any fog should dissipate by sunrise if development can occur. Otherwise, overnight lows in the low to mid 50s are expected. The remainder of the weekend will be characterized by continued dry and pleasant conditions, as another large area of surface high pressure slowly descends across the Midwest region. While winds will be more north/northwesterly, broad coverage of sunshine should allow for temperatures to reach into the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 221 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Into the beginning of the upcoming work week, the forecast will remain dry, with a large area of high pressure over the Upper Midwest that will slowly depart the region, especially into Tuesday. Outside of an embedded shortwave passing over Winnipeg/Ontario, with any rain chances staying well north of Iowa into midweek, quasi- zonal upper level flow is expected to persist, keeping conditions dry. The main story otherwise will be a gradual increase in temperatures, with values into the low to mid 70s becoming common Tue/Wed. The late work week will see an intensifying area of ridging over the western CONUS where a heat dome will dominate, which will put Iowa into a northwest flow pattern aloft. This will likely introduce at least some potential for passing weak shortwave energy at times from the north, where long range guidance is starting to show by late Thursday/early Friday, which could bring the first chance for a return of rain chances back into the state. Given low confidence on specific track and evolution of features at this time though, have left conditions dry, but this will be something to keep a casual eye on in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period. Mid to upper level clouds are moving through much of the area northwest to southeast early this evening with clearing conditions expected. Additional mid to high level clouds then graze the area on Sunday. A few showers have been reported in southern Minnesota or northwest Iowa early this evening but confidence in impacts at the surface within 5SM of a terminal is lower than 30% so no mentions were included. Should any site see a sprinkle, the most likely would be KMCW. Breezy winds from this afternoon will continue to diminish in the next hour or so with light winds out of the south to southwest initially turning out of the west late tonight through the overnight and then becoming out of the northwest and increasing slightly on Sunday morning. Will continue to monitor for any potential fog development overnight but confidence in development in general remains low, and is also mainly outside of TAF sites.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.