textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly cooler today with light to occasionally breezy winds out of the south. Breeziest conditions over western Iowa.

- Notably warmer Sunday and especially Monday, when temperatures will climb into the 60s across central and southwestern Iowa.

- Relatively cooler in the latter half of next week with daily highs in the 30s/40s, and persistent but low (20-30%) precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

From Saturday through Monday modest thermal ridging will attempt to build overhead, being briefly interrupted by a weak mid-level shortwave moving through late Saturday night into Sunday. Despite this, a gradual and steady warm advection trend aloft will also translate to the surface each day. On Monday the axis of the ridge will be overhead, skies will be sunny, and low-level flow will be moderate from the south southwest. Meanwhile, a broad low pressure trough will be present over the High Plains, with an affective warm front stretching eastward from the trough somewhere near the Iowa/Minnesota border. This setup is very conducive to warming, with the only limiting factor seeming to be the modest near-surface flow and mixing depth. Nevertheless, temperatures should soar into the lower 60s in our central and southwestern counties, and into the 50s across most of the remainder of our forecast area. The daily record high of 61 will be threatened at Des Moines, but at most other sites the records appear to be safe unless temperatures significantly overachieve the current forecast. Regardless, Monday will be the most pleasant day in quite some time for most outdoor interests and, dare we say it, provide just a little taste of the Spring weather that will eventually come.

From Tuesday onward a more or less zonal flow regime will set up at 500 MB, with multiple perturbations moving through the flow. The first of these will push the aforementioned High Plains trough eastward across Iowa around late Monday night/Tuesday and end the warm weather, but even thereafter temperatures will remain moderate for much of next week with daily highs generally in the upper 30s to 40s from Wednesday through next Friday. Low (20-30%) precipitation chances are also forecast during this time frame, but overall given the relatively weak and transient nature of the forcing mechanisms in play, the temporal coverage and magnitude of precipitation potential is relatively low. The most likely impacts, if any, would be from any light snow or freezing precipitation affecting roads but even that threat seems limited for now. Obviously the predictability of such features in zonal flow at this forecast range is not high, so stay tuned for forecast updates in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Clear skies and VFR conditions prevail over much of central Iowa this morning. An area of MVFR stratus is lingering over northwestern Iowa, but it's unlikely this will reach any TAF sites before dissipating later this morning. Otherwise, main impact to terminals will be winds increasing and becoming more southerly through mid-day. Gusts around 20 to 22 kts are possible in the afternoon. Wind gusts diminish after sunset, but winds remain light around 10 to 12 kts this evening.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1140 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The forecast warm-up over the next week has led to questions about ice jam potential especially in light of the flood watch related to ice jams issued by NWS Omaha. Below are some key points.

* Bottom line up front: the current weather forecast as well as our service area ice jam climatology suggest a MINIMAL risk of river flooding from break-up ice jams over the next week or so.

* According to USGS field crew measurements, river ice thicknesses on many of our service areas streams are around 0.5 to 1 ft. Those values are around or above normal for this time of year.

* Unlike eastern Nebraska, we typically need seasonally moderate to heavy rainfall in conjunction with a warm-up to have flooding issues from ice jams. (Eastern Nebraska can see flooding from break-up ice jams from warm-ups alone, hence the flood watch there.)

* Our climatological peak of river flooding from break-up ice jams is early to mid-March. We have seen flooding from break- up jams in January and February, however the majority of it has occurred in March.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.