textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild today with mostly dry conditions; breezy

- Cooldown tonight into Wednesday, with breezy conditions

- Snow possible at times Thursday thru Saturday, paired with breezy conditions. Highest chance Thursday night. Cold air settles for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mild conditions to start the day this morning as southwesterly flow under partly to mostly clear skies is keeping temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s across Iowa. This is thanks to the thermal ridge remaining across the western half of the CONUS today, leading to continued warm air advection into the region. There is however a mid- level trough sliding down the ridge, with its attendant surface low pressure centered just north of Minnesota early this morning. This feature is trying to generate precipitation into Minnesota and Wisconsin, though is struggling to reach the surface due to the presence of dry air despite light radar returns. The expectation is for this feature to track southeastward across the northern Great Lakes and eventually to the northeastern CONUS through today, with the bulk of better moisture and forcing remaining out of Iowa. However, will see winds shift westerly and gradually northwesterly by late this morning into the afternoon, when a relatively dry cool front drops across Iowa in response to the passing system. Winds will turn breezy through the afternoon, with gusts expected for most areas around 20-30 mph, highest across northern Iowa gusting 35+ mph. Still expecting temperatures today to be on the warmer side in the upper 40s to low 50s, warmest southwest as the WAA remaining overhead should hold on into the early afternoon, before the aforementioned cool front starts to gradually decrease these temps through the afternoon and thicker cloud cover also increases overhead. Into the later afternoon to evening, there remains some indication for precipitation generation in southern Iowa in the form of sprinkles or a few light rain showers, but the bulk of guidance shows drier air in the low levels, which keeps chances very minimal (<20%). After a brief decrease in winds into the evening, the lagging colder air behind the departing system will sink into Iowa from stronger cold air advection, increasing winds again around 30- 40mph, highest over northern/eastern Iowa tonight through much of Wednesday morning. Temperatures will fall overnight tonight into Wednesday as the cold air overspreads the state, with lows expected in the upper teens in the north to upper 20s in the south.

Winds are expected to remain breezy through the afternoon, before decreasing further as surface high pressure in the Upper Midwest drops into the state. The dry and cooler air will remain overhead for the rest of the day and into Thursday morning, with highs expected in the low 20s north and low 30s south. Prime radiational cooling is expected Wednesday night into Thursday as clear skies and light winds set up under the high pressure directly overhead, resulting in expected lows in the upper single digits to mid teens, warmest southwest. The western thermal ridge will continue to be cutoff from the Midwest as another trough at the top of this ridge pivots into the Upper Midwest later Thursday. This deepening wave and developing low pressure over far southern Canada is indicated per deterministic guidance to drop a cold front across Iowa Thursday afternoon to evening following and increase in southwesterly flow and moisture into the area just ahead of it, bringing the next chance for precipitation to the area. A closer look at the setup does feature the best moisture return in north/east Iowa and even more so into Minnesota/Wisconsin, with temperatures below freezing indicating snow. In terms of snow amounts, models tend to have agreement on totals around an inch or less, with higher amounts less likely (<30%). The most important point is that even little snow accumulations can lead to slick, hazardous travel so this will be something to consider for the Thursday evening commute. Will continue to closely monitor this over the next few days.

Additional chances are in the forecast for snow as wrap around snow showers are also indicated on the cool side of this system as it passes down through the Great Lakes Friday and remaining into Saturday. The extent of additional snowfall accumulations looks to be more uncertain at this time given some differences in solutions in evolution/track of the system this far out, so something to certainly discern over the next several days. Winds are expected to be quite gusty as well Friday as increasing northwest flow gradually brings even cooler air into the region, with gusts up to 30-40 mph expected. Therefore, any snow that falls Friday would be blowing around which would lead to lower visibilities. Something to certainly be keeping on eye on through the week for potential impacts. A chilly weekend is then in store following the push of cooler air into the region from the north, with lows in the single digits to teens and highs only in the teens to 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Areas of high clouds are expected to prevail through much of the period, with VFR conditions across the terminals. LLWS will gradually decrease over the next few hours. Lower ceilings arrive late this afternoon to evening, with MVFR conditions looking more likely across the northeast, specifically at KMCW and KALO. However, further south looks to remain VFR though mid- level clouds will be common. Winds will gradually shift west then northwesterly by late morning, increasing through the afternoon as gusts up to 20-30 knots are expected, especially north. A secondary surge in winds late tonight into Wednesday will allow for additional gusty winds, especially across the north with gusts up to 35 knots possible.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.