textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Drying conditions expected today, with quiet and mild weather anticipated through the start of the work week as high temperatures increase into the 40s to 50s.

- Low chances (<20%) for precipitation into midweek, then slightly cooler temperatures through the rest of the week.

- Snow possible (20-40%) Thursday evening into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Isolated areas of flurries to light snow showers remain mainly east of I-35 in Iowa early this morning, which have slowly begun to diminish over the last hour or two with dry air trying to spread into the state. Winds have remained quite breezy as well, with gusts out of the northwest largely between 20-30 mph and isolated to 35mph over portions of eastern Iowa. These conditions are all thanks to the surface low now centered over the eastern Great Lakes, with its western influence still affecting Iowa as seen from the lingering tightened pressure gradient. Trends all indicate that any remaining flurries to light snow showers will fade in the next hour or so as dry air overtakes the region, though stratus will likely remain stubborn to exit the state, especially across the northeast today. Models have not been handling how quickly these clouds depart, with the greater majority clearing out much of this cloud cover by sunrise, but observations would indicate otherwise, with satellite data showing thick stratus slowly descending across Minnesota into the eastern half of Iowa yet. Would anticipate conditions becoming mostly clear into mid-late morning and especially the afternoon as the aforementioned system departs further east, along with the gradual decrease in northwest winds. Surface high pressure responsible for improving conditions will drop south across the Central Plains through the latter parts of the morning and into the afternoon today, which will lead to shifting surface winds becoming west/southwesterly and turning breezy. However, winds won't be as strong as this morning's values, with expected gusts up to 20 mph at times. Highs will increase into the mid to upper 30s across the state, coolest northeast where clouds hold on the longest.

Larger scale ridging over the western CONUS, with a large area of high pressure developing will generally lead to relatively quiet and dry conditions for Iowa over the next few days, with warming conditions as the thermal ridge moves eastward Monday and especially Tuesday as highs increase into the 40s and even through the 50s, warmest over southwest Iowa. Of note however will be a shortwave and associated surface low pressure over southern Canada dropping into the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, as models have been showing this over the last several forecast cycles. Trends do indicate this low pressure deepening as it drops southeast into the Ohio Valley through the day, with the bulk of better forcing and moisture north and east of Iowa. That said, there is a some indication from the GFS of better moisture return into Iowa, with rain showers developing along a boundary as mid-level frontogenesis peaks over southern Iowa by the evening. However, the Euro generally keeps Central Iowa dry, with any precipitation south and east of the state. Considering the differences, have kept a dry forecast for the morning update, but will continue to monitor trends. Impacts either way look minimal.

Winds increase and shift northwesterly Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, bringing cooler air into the region from increasing cold air advection. As the low pressure gradually moves out of the region, there is some signal for additional isolated low chances (<20%) for precipitation over northeast Iowa, with temperatures below freezing suggesting snow. However, the overall forcing and moisture presence is even less notable at this point, so there is little concern for any sort of accumulations to come of this if any flakes were to reach the ground. Following the departing wave, a Canadian high pressure system sinks southward into the Midwest Wednesday afternoon to evening, with the cooler and drier airmass resulting in temperatures to be about 15-20 degrees cooler than Tuesday's highs, as values are expected in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest south. Efficient radiational cooling Wednesday night into Thursday given clear skies and light winds will result in very cold temperatures in the teens. By Thursday, the high pressure slides further south out of the region, with a shortwave over the Dakotas indicated per long range guidance to drop a frontal boundary into Iowa by the evening and into Friday. This system looks to come with more notable moisture and forcing than the previously mentioned waves earlier in the week, leading to the chance for snow during this time. This is still several days out though, so any specific details are not known at this time and will be available in the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Low stratus remains across all terminals this morning, with MVFR conditions. However, the stratus is slowly decreasing as the system responsible for it moves eastward, so the expectation is for conditions to improve from west to east through the morning. Returning VFR conditions are expected for all sites by 18z-21z. Winds out of the northwest will continue to decrease as well this morning, then shifting west/southwest and increasing again, though not as strong with gusts up to 15-20 knots into the evening. There is the potential for LLWS to develop between 00-06z across the terminals. High clouds move in over northern Iowa late tonight into Monday morning, with VFR conditions expected to otherwise remain.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.