textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions today. Strongest winds will occur during the morning hours, with gusts up to 40 mph possible.

- Brief period of light snow/flurries possible into mid-day. No accumulations or significant impacts expected.

- Quiet weekend weather, with warming temperatures peaking on Monday when lower the 60s may be reached in parts of Iowa.

UPDATE

Issued at 319 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Winds are starting to pick up over far northern and northwestern Iowa early this morning, as low-level flow flips to a more northerly direction behind the approaching cold front. Winds aloft look quite healthy directly behind this front, with a 40 to 50 kt 925 mb jet arriving with the strong cold air advection. However, the jet is also arriving prior to sunrise and prior to the more significant height rises, which will hinder the transfer of these winds down to the surface. Because of this, there may only be a short period where we actually mix deep enough to mix down some of those stronger winds, if we do at all. Model soundings echo this, with the layer not fully mixing out to 925 mb until later this morning and after the jet is most of the way through the area. Also working against the deeper mixing is a broad area of stratus quickly spreading southward into Iowa, which will further limit thermal mixing after sunrise. Long story short, the strongest cold air advection and winds aloft appear to be out of phase with the more significant height falls and the deeper mixing potential, keeping the potential for more significant winds at bay. Conditions will still be breezy this morning, with gusts of 30 to 40 likely, but the confidence isn't there for 45+ mph winds given the set- up and therefore have decided to hold off on a Wind Advisory.

The strongest winds will be in the morning as the front initially moves through, but the steep lapse rates behind the boundary will persist most of the day keeping conditions breezy into the afternoon. Through the morning and into early afternoon, model soundings do indicate a shallow layer of instability and saturation developing at the top of the mixed layer, suggesting some convectively driven elements are possible into early afternoon. Horizontal convective rolls have been mentioned in previous discussions, and some model output (particularly visibilites) do imply this potential. Similarly, soundings show modest lift through the mixed layer, as well as some supersaturation with respect to ice within the unstable layer. All of these things point toward some potential for flurries and/or snow showers today. The main features working against snow showers is how warm and dry the mixed layer is. The entire layer exists outside of the dendritic growth zone, which will inhibit efficient crystal growth. Likewise, dry low levels will work to evaporate or sublimate any precipitation falling through it. That all said, strong enough convective elements can overcome the environments they exist within. Therefore, expecting that we will see some form of HCRs/cumulus develop through the day, mainly over northern Iowa, but the profile they're occurring in should keep precipitation light. If precipitation falls as liquid, it will likely evaporate before reaching the surface. If it falls as snow, crystals will be inefficient and likely more flurry-like. Therefore, have kept only low precipitation chances (15% or less) with mention of sprinkles/flurries.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The weather for the upcoming weekend appears overall quiet and pleasant. A surface high pressure ridge will slide across the region Friday night into Saturday, supporting cooler weather with lows in the teens to single digits northeast Saturday morning followed by highs only in the upper 20s northeast to near 40 southwest that afternoon. This will be succeeded by a couple days of nebulous surface flow and modest thermal ridging aloft, supporting a warming trend Sunday and Monday. Highs will climb into the upper 30s northeast to near 50 southwest on Sunday, then on Monday surge into the 50s or even 60s in our forecast area. NBM continues to be near the top of the guidance envelope for Monday high temperatures, however, it has been consistent over the last several runs and is sensible given the synoptic set-up and the recent underperformance of guidance in similar events earlier this winter. At any rate, Monday will be warmest day in some time, providing a brief respite for those who are tired of our recent cooler weather.

From Monday night into the middle of next week the 500 MB flow overhead will become more zonal, with a modest cool front pushing through Iowa around Tuesday or so. Even behind this boundary, Wednesday and Thursday highs will likely still range around the upper 30s to 40s. Low (20-30%) rain chances return during this time, but support for this precipitation is nebulous and of low predictability at this range. A southern stream 500 MB trough will spread higher precipitation chances/amounts across the central U.S., particularly from late Tuesday into Wednesday, but recent model trends support a likelihood of that precipitation staying south of Iowa.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

A broken deck of low stratus clouds has produced prevailing MVFR ceilings between FL017 and FL028 this morning. These clouds will gradually rise and break up this afternoon, bringing prevailing VFR conditions by this evening and thereafter. Gusty NNW winds this afternoon will also diminish by sunset and become variable overnight.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.