textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds this afternoon may continue to result in localized blowing dust. Erratic fire behavior may also occur with any fires that start given the gusty and dry conditions. Winds gradually diminish tonight.

- Pleasant conditions on Wednesday with lighter winds and highs in the 70s.

- Warming temperatures expected Friday into the weekend with highs in the 80s to near 90.

- Active weather returns from late Thursday into Friday and then again over the weekend with several chances for rain and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper trough and the attendant surface low have moved out of Minnesota and into the Great Lakes region today. The trailing surface front continues to cross through the state northwest to southeast changing winds from out of the southwest ahead of the front to out of the northwest behind. These winds will continue to be gusty through this afternoon with sustained winds 20-30 mph and gusts to near 40 mph, though Estherville has reached as high as a 51 mph gust early this afternoon. Opted for a SPS to cover these gusty winds with a few sites touching Wind Advisory criteria mainly on the sustained winds but isolated gusts as occurred in Estherville. Have heard a few reports of blowing dust in portions of southern Minnesota where a Blowing Dust Advisory was issued, but only isolated reports and nothing nearly as widespread in portions mainly northern Iowa. Localized visibility reductions to near or under 1 mile will certainly remain a possibility where any localized blowing dust occurs with areas near open fields that were recently plowed the most susceptible. Additionally, the gusty conditions may lead to erratic fire behavior, as noted in the previous discussion, given the good mixing today has resulted in relative humidity values falling into the teens to 20s percent range in especially northern and western Iowa. Despite the low relative humidity and gusty winds, the greenness precludes any fire headlines, but burning is still discouraged in these conditions. On the precipitation front, after a few showers and thunderstorms occurred this morning, amounts only reached to a trace to 0.01" which was not enough to wet soils/reduce the blowing dust just discussed. The last of the showers continues to push eastward this afternoon with drier conditions arriving for the evening and into Wednesday as a high pressure moves into the region tonight. This will help winds drop off tonight and lead to a beautiful day Wednesday with lighter winds and high temperatures in the 70s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

The high pressure moves off to the east on Thursday with the upper ridge moving overhead before a series of waves pass through the region to end the week and into the weekend. On the backside of the high pressure, winds return to out of the south and increase with the thermal ridge resulting in much warmer temperatures in the 80s to touching 90 Friday into the weekend. These warmer temperatures will be accompanied by the return of ample moisture off the Gulf as dew points surge into the 50s in at least southern Iowa and potentially into the 60s by Sunday. As one may be able to guess, increasing temperatures and moisture also result in thunderstorms returning to the forecast first later Thursday into Friday and again Saturday and Sunday. Instability climbs into Friday afternoon, though storms may be off to the east where the better forcing is, as also seen with good agreement in the global models. More widespread storm chances look to occur later Saturday into Sunday and again later Sunday into Monday though there remains a fair bit of model spread. Will continue to assess the severe threat over the next few days, but some stronger storms are certainly possible and SPC in particular has outlined much of the area in a 15% for Day 5/Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Wind gusts from earlier today have come down with a few sporadic gusts up to 25kts lingering throughout the state. Winds will remain out of the northwest through much of the TAF period with OTM gusting again tomorrow to around 20kts. After 00z, a high pressure system will begin to move into Iowa, causing winds to become light and variable across all sites. Just beyond this TAF period, winds will become from the southeast.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.