textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonally mild conditions in the 30s-40s this week.

- Rain and snow chances (40-50%) return Thursday across northern into central Iowa.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Warm southerly flow into the area has pushed temperatures into the mid to upper 60s in southwest Iowa with low 60s stretching into central Iowa. The warmest temperature in Iowa so far has been Clarinda in the OAX CWA reaching 70 degrees. So far today Des Moines has broken the record high of 61, reaching 64 with a few hours of daytime heating yet to go this afternoon. Meanwhile, cloud cover has been rather persistent across northern Iowa, becoming scattered in central to southern Iowa. This cloud cover has but a damper on temperatures north with many areas remaining in the low to mid 40s this afternoon. In fact, at 1pm Waterloo was still 39 degrees. Overall, the temperatures range across Iowa is on track with the forecast, though the gradient is tighter than expected with the cooler air in the north. Cloud cover has also limited winds across the area today. While a handful of locations have gusted 20-25 kts, the lack of deeper mixing has prevented stronger gusts.

Overnight tonight the cold front will sink south across the area with winds shifting to out of the northwest. Strong cold air advection and subsidence behind the front will help to pull stronger winds to the surface. Expect that, after a lull from this afternoon's breezy southerly winds, north west winds will then increase overnight. Soundings indicate 25-30 kts at the top of the mixed layer overnight and continuing through the day on Tuesday before the inversion sets up Tuesday evening. Breeziest conditions are anticipated central and south on Tuesday. Tuesday will also be cooler behind the front with highs in the 40s.

On Thursday an embedded shortwave passes across Iowa, bringing the next chance for precipitation. Models have become more consistent with placing the track across northern into central Iowa. NBM guidance has been slower to account for this shift and suspect that the low precip chances south of the I-80 corridor are likely overdone based on recent trends. Temperatures are near freezing and expect a rain snow mix to set up with some light snow accumulation possible in northern Iowa. The more robust system remains likely across the central US for the weekend and the GFS/Euro suites have maintained the southerly track with most recent model runs. These solutions would keep Iowa dry if they persist.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and largely expected to continue through the TAF period. A period of LLWS is still expected ahead of a cold front that will move through later this evening into the overnight hours. Kept with LLWS mentions at KDSM/KALO/KOTM for the next several hours until surface gusts return. These gusts, which switch to be out of the northwest with the cold front passage, remain gusty through Tuesday morning before decreasing again later in the day. Still monitoring the potential for MVFR ceilings near especially KMCW, but potentially KALO, overnight into early Tuesday morning but confidence in timing and occurrence not yet high enough to include explicit mentions.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.