textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers in the southeast continue to move out/dissipate this afternoon. A few low (<25%) chances for showers in move back into far southern Iowa tonight.

- Patchy fog is possible overnight, especially in portions of northern Iowa.

- More seasonal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s continue on Thursday. Slight warm up Friday, another push of heat looks to move in for Monday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances late Friday into Saturday, Saturday into Sunday, with more widespread chances Sunday into Monday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

The cold front which had mostly cleared the area except for the southeast this morning has actually drifted back northward and stalled out southwest to northeast through central Iowa. To the northwest of this front, much drier air is noted with dew points in the 50s, but temperatures have started to warm into the low 80s under mostly clear skies. To the southeast of this front, dew points remain in the the 70s with cloud cover holding temperatures in the 70s. A few showers also remain over far southern Iowa. Although these are expected to continue to move out/dissipate through this afternoon, there may be a window for a few additional showers nudging into far southern Iowa from activity developing further south tonight into the overnight. These chances are generally low, less than 25% with the better chances to the south of the IA/MO border.

A surface high pressure crosses through the area tonight before moving off to the east by later Thursday. This will create another opportunity for patchy fog to develop overnight into early Thursday with the light winds and clearing skies. There does look to be another push of high clouds tonight/early overnight, but they look to clear at least portions of northern into central Iowa by early Thursday.

Despite a shortwave moving through the upper trough/northwest flow, the forecast remains dry Thursday through much of Friday with the high pressure and drier conditions previously mentioned. Temperatures will be pleasant Thursday and in the upper 70s to low 80s with conditions feeling much less humid with the lower dew points.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 254 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Behind the high pressure departure Thursday night, winds return to out of the south to southwest in the low to mid levels. This will lead to another surge of moisture raising dew points again and pushing temperatures slightly warmer and conditions more humid again for Friday. Winds will also be on the increase as the pressure gradient tightens creating breezy conditions on Friday with the highest winds/gusts in northern to northwest Iowa where gusts may reach up to around 35 mph.

Theta-e advection then ramps up late Friday night into Saturday morning as the mid-level trough deepens and a surface low moves through the region dragging a cold front with it. This will bring our next chance for showers and storms, mainly overnight Friday night into early Saturday morning. SPC maintained the day 3 (Friday) Marginal to Slight (Level 1 to 2 out of 5) in northwest Iowa for these storm chances as they reach the area late into early Saturday morning.

The weekend then looks to remain active with several additional chances for showers and storms from later Saturday into Sunday, and then again with more widespread chances Sunday through Monday. Although temperatures remain in the 70s to 80s through the weekend (though with the higher dew points), we'll get one more bigger push of heat into Monday before cooling back into the 70s early next week behind another cold front. Will continue to evaluate the potential for severe storms and heavy rain with these subsequent rounds over the coming days but conditions at first glance to remain more favorable for heavy rain with pwats over 1.5" through much of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

In the short term, added a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at KOTM for lingering stratus across southern Iowa. Thinking the current 4/5sm ob at KOOA is false, so vsbys are VFR. Stratus is eroding and will become SCT early in the period. KOTM remains AMD NOT SKED.

Planning period changes included trending more aggressive for fog at KMCW and KFOD given two factors: 1) Clearing of high clouds happens here first and 2) Fog occurred at both sites last night. Added in KFOD as a TEMPO due to the main contributor being river fog, which may be more transient. Trends will be monitored overnight.

VFR prevails after fog burns off and the chance of low cigs from lifting fog is low in the morning.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.