textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue through Tuesday, with highs generally in the 60s.

- Low potential for precipitation (15-25%) and gusty winds Wednesday.

- A cooling trend with sub-freezing morning lows possible Thursday through end of the week, along with dry conditions.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A rather pleasant November day is occurring across Central Iowa, given widespread mostly sunny skies and warm conditions as temperatures though the 60s are noted, and even low 70s in southwest Iowa, exceeding warming expectations. Breezy conditions are also ongoing this afternoon given notable mixing of the PBL as WAA brings in warm air out of the southwest across the region. Gusts have rose above earlier forecast expectations, with values reaching 25-30 mph, highest over northern Iowa this afternoon. A closer look at surface features across the region shows a surface trough over the Upper Midwest, with a weak boundary currently over central Minnesota down through northwest Iowa, noted by a wind shift from southwest to northwest. This weak boundary will pass southeastward across Iowa through the rest of the afternoon to early evening, resulting in a shift to more widespread northwesterly winds, which at the same time will turn lighter, while dry conditions remain. Skies should remain mostly clear into the evening before increasing in coverage for a portion of the night, leading to slightly warmer low temperatures in the upper 30s to 40s in the southern half of the state, while the northern half will be a bit chillier in the mid to upper 30s. Surface high pressure sinking down from the Northern Plains will arrive tonight into Tuesday, with fairly light winds leading to at least some potential for areas of patchy fog, mostly in river valley areas if development can occur. Most models keep any fog development south and west of the state, though a few are more optimistic on some coverage into central Iowa, so something that will indeed be monitored in the short term.

Tuesday will feature continued dry and mild conditions as northwesterly surface winds gradually shift southeasterly into late morning and especially afternoon, but will remain light as the region will be more directly under the aforementioned high pressure system. Weaker WAA will be in place for a short period, though cloud cover will be present over much of the state. Conditions are expected to remain more on the mild side as highs are anticipated to top out in the upper 50s to the north and in the mid 60s south.

Into Tuesday evening, guidance continues to indicate a more defined trough and associated developing surface low passing through the Dakotas, which is signaled to descend across Iowa through Wednesday morning. Latest member runs are indicating moisture return covering parts of northern and more so eastern Iowa as the system slides through, with weak forcing overhead suggesting light rain chances generally after sunrise through the rest of the morning. Drier air and any lift then departs southeastward of the state into the afternoon. Therefore, PoPs have been shifted further east to account for this change during the morning, with probabilities now around 15- 25% east of I-35. Will continue to monitor trends regarding the track and strength of this system, but regardless, minimal rainfall amounts are indicated, leading to overall very minimal impact. Otherwise, of more widespread coverage will be breezy winds as cold air advection increases through the day given northwesterly flow across the state. While winds looks strongest west of the forecast area, gusts up to 20-25 mph are anticipated, but may need to be increased in future forecast updates given the potential for better mixing as skies look to clear out in most places while CAA is ongoing. Temperatures as a result will be around 5-10 degrees cooler for most areas, as highs are expected to reach into the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The large scale pattern towards the end of the work week features a building upper-level ridge over the northwestern CONUS, while the trough departing Iowa enters the Ohio Valley region and becomes one with a larger and rather potent trough sweeping across the upper Great Lakes region. The net result will be upper level northwest flow becoming dominant over Iowa, leading to a general cooler and quiet pattern. Highs will range only in the 40s, with overnight lows in the 20s to 30s through Friday. A few models suggests a low potential for light rain showers into eastern Iowa as wrap around precipitation may extend its influence westwards into Iowa as the low pressure deepens over the Ohio Valley region Thursday, though this would be battling a strong push of dry air as surface high pressure descends from Canada into the Midwest. Just worth a casual mention at this time, but something to keep an eye on for possible inclusion if the drier air is slower to arrive. While the aforementioned upper ridge nears the central US into the weekend, northwest flow with its dry and cooler air will generally hold. Highs over the weekend as a result will remain more towards seasonal norms in the 40s to 50s, with lows in the 20s to 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail this period. FEW to SCT midlevel clouds will be common. A wind shift will move through KDSM and KOTM in the next 6 hours, shifting winds from a southwesterly to northwesterly direction.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.