textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for dangerous fire weather conditions today. Do not burn!

- Warming through the weekend, reaching the 70s and into the 80s by Monday.

- Cold front Tuesday brings rain chances back to the area. Active week ahead with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

High pressure has settled across Iowa overnight, creating a cloud free, light wind environment. This has allowed temperature to drop off overnight with much of the area already in the 20s and a few sites reporting upper teens. Temperatures will continue to fall through sunrise with a good radiational cooling setup. Thereafter, conditions change quickly. High pressure departs as a broad surface low to the west continues to deepen. This will help to enhance the pressure gradient across Iowa, resulting in increasingly strong southerly winds. Very dry conditions are forecast for today with dewpoints in the teens across the area with relative humidity around 15-20%. These dry conditions will also aid in deep mixing, further increasing wind potential today. Winds will be strongest across northwest Iowa where the pressure gradient is strongest. Expect gusts of 40-45+ mph in this area. Central to southern Iowa can expect gusts of 25-35+ mph. This setup will result in dangerous fire weather conditions across the state. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today. Do not burn.

As the western surface low moves east on Sunday it will help tap into deeper moisture transport out of the Gulf and into Iowa. This will help to mitigate fire concerns on Sunday and push temperatures into the upper 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

As the surface low moves north of the area with a developing and deepening trough to the northwest, Iowa will be firmly in the warm sector on Monday. This will send temperatures through the upper 70s to low 80s, which could near record values in a few locations. Nocturnal convection is expected to develop on the warm front overnight Monday. There remains uncertainty as to the placement of this convection with the warm front wobbling run to run and model to model. By Tuesday the cold front will push across Iowa. Convection is expected to develop along the front and with plenty of instability and deep shear available, stronger storms are possible. The exact placement of these storms is still to be determined in the coming days. Current model data suggests that the synoptic evolution will be such that more robust convective development would occur south and east of the area.

The week remains active with a pair of large systems moving across the central US by Thursday and Friday. Uncertainty remains in the storm tracks and thus possible impacts to Iowa. At the very least, expect continued chances for showers and thunderstorms. Any severe potential will be better evaluated in the days to come.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Variable winds winds will become southwesterly after 10z, then increasing in gustiness through the morning. Gusts over 35kts will be common for northern terminals. Gusts to around 20kts will remain after sunset.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062- 070>075-081>086-092>097.