textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow late tonight into Sunday with highest chances of 80 to 90% over northern to northeastern Iowa. Accumulations up to 1 to near 1.5 inches are possible in northern to northeastern Iowa with a dusting or less over southern Iowa. The snow may mix with or change over to freezing drizzle at times early Sunday.

- Forecast is trending drier this upcoming week with temperatures milder than recent days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Surface high pressure to our west which helped start our day off chilly with feel-like temperatures all below zero, continues to push southward today into tonight. It will remain the primary influence of our weather through the afternoon though keeping conditions dry and mostly sunny. Temperatures will also be warmer this afternoon than this time yesterday as warm air advection increases ahead of the approaching shortwave trough that will bring clouds and then precipitation chances back to the area tonight into Sunday.

Moisture gradually increases through the column west to east this evening through the overnight hours but with dry air at the surface to overcome, it will take some time for precipitation to start as saturation occurs from the top down. CAMs and forecast soundings have some level of agreement with precipitation starting around to after 06Z far northwest to west as the column fully saturates bringing light snow largely through the overnight hours there with precipitation lingering in portions of central to eastern Iowa Sunday morning into afternoon respectively as the wave pushes eastward through the day Sunday. The best moisture remains in northern to northeastern Iowa corresponding to the locations most likely to see the highest accumulations with this event around 1 inch, localized 1.5" to perhaps as much as 2" in an isolated location northeast. Ensemble guidance would suggest these probabilities are around 30-40% for 1" of snow far north/northwest (near Estherville/surrounding) and higher, closer to 50-60% in the northeast (near Mason City/surrounding). Although light snow is expected through much of the area, less saturation further south means less accumulations with little to none in the far southwest, to maybe a dusting south of I-80, and to around 0.5" (less than 1") elsewhere for locations outside of the northeast as previously noted. As has been mentioned in the last several discussions, the timing of loss of saturation is the difference between precipitation ending as the light snow stops, or transitioning to freezing drizzle. Dry air cuts off the ice introduction west to east early Sunday morning with some soundings suggesting more than 1km of saturation remaining before subsidence starts to occur in the low levels. In other cases, ice introduction is lost for only a short time leading to potentially more of a mix of snow and some freezing drizzle. Did increase the mentions of freezing drizzle spatially to increase awareness in the potential though the specific locations and timing of the hazard remain more nuanced and uncertain with adjustments likely into tomorrow morning. The main take home point in all of this is the combination of light snow and/or freezing drizzle at times could lead to some slick travel into and through Sunday morning and caution is advised.

Winds will also be on the increase into tonight with south/southwest winds gusting to around 15-30 mph before switching to be out of the northwest and increasing again, especially north, after a small lull into tomorrow night as a cold front moves in from the north. This front will drop temperatures again, mainly north, on Monday with reinforcing colder air arriving into Tuesday as a high pressure from the north settles in through midweek. A few systems move nearby and may provide glancing opportunities for precipitation early Tuesday or later in the week but the going forecast at this point is mainly dry. After a few near to slightly below normal days early this week, temperatures warm towards the 40s/above normal near the end of the week with the warmest day looking like Thursday. This warm up will be accompanied by increasing winds as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions through this evening followed by deteriorating conditions later tonight from northwest to southeast as lowering cigs and snow chances increase. Periods of IFR vsbys and possibly cigs may occur at times, especially over northern Iowa. The precipitation may persist into the afternoon at most locations and there remains a chance a period of freezing drizzle occurs at all sites. The confidence at any location remains low enough to only mention snow at this time. The wind will become more southerly this evening before turning more westerly Sunday afternoon.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.