textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow possible on Thursday.

- Snow showers or squalls possible Friday as another cold front arrives. Windy at times.

- Cold this week and light snow chances may persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

The morning strato-cumulus is eroding early this afternoon as the available moisture continues to thin across Iowa much drier air filters into the state today. Recall, this is the dry air that was near the International border yesterday afternoon. Gusty winds remain across the state as well though they are diminishing from north to south as the mixed layer winds subside. Expect much of the gusts to subside by early this evening with parts of southern Iowa not loosing mixing until a few hours after sunset.

A ridge of high pressure will move across Iowa from west to east tonight with the main high pressure center shifting to the south over Oklahoma and Texas. Upper level theta-e advection will be overtopping the surface feature by 06z with the lower level theta-e advection lagging a bit and arriving late tonight into Thursday morning. The initial clouds should be overtopping the light and variable area along the ridge which is separating the northwest winds to the return flow to the west and should minimize the low temperature drop overnight. Steady to rising temperatures will then follow over the west as that return flow arrives. Light snow is expected to develop Thursday morning as kinematic forcing from an approaching short wave moves over the region of strong theta-e advection. There remains some moisture discontinuity with this system which is leading to various solutions amongst the deterministic solutions and just blending these together isn't necessarily a good solution either. Overall, there will be light snow but it may be more in showery form as compared to a broad area. The moisture discontinuity is also leading to temporal differences but overall the will be the initial round in the morning/afternoon followed by mid-level drying followed by another round Thursday night as the next short wave arrives. At this time, any accumulations should be an inch or less.

We continue to monitor the snow shower/squall potenitial late Thursday night into Friday. A trough of low pressure moving through Thursday night will lower dew point values over the area ahead of the main cold front that is on track to arrive Friday afternoon. These dew points are a bit lower than expected 24 hrs ago and may have some impact on the snow shower/squall potential, especially over southern Iowa. The snow squall parameter utilizing the original 0-2 km layer, is still showing unstable surface based CAPE and low level shear as the frontogenesis arrives with the more Arctic like airmass in the afternoon. This should result in the development snow showers and if enough moisture depth is achieved, snow squalls. More shallow horizontal convective rolls may follow into the evening. Travel impacts remain possible on Friday and worst case scenario, could have significant impacts. At the very least, gusty winds are expected and may require headlines as well.

The NBM continues to play catchup with high temperatures Saturday as -20C to -25C 850 mb temperatures move over central Iowa. The overnight NBM run dropped temperatures another 4 degrees from the previous NBM run utilized in grids yesterday. For reference, CONSRaw is running 2 to 4 degrees colder than the NBM, which has bias corrected input. CONSRaw will be closer to reality. Periods of light snow may also persist as the cloud layer will fall into the dendritic growth zone. The next surge of cold advection arrives Sunday and Sunday night and will bring another period of light snow and gusty wind potenitial.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Breezy winds are beginning to diminish in northern and eastern Iowa but gusts of 20-25+ kts will persist into the night at sites KALO/KDSM/KOTM before tapering off overnight. Winds on Thursday morning shift to out of the south with increasing cloud cover. Light snow is possible, mainly at northern sites KFOD/KMCW/KALO, however with dry air in place confidence is low and any ocarinas should be light. As such, have retained the prob30 group mention.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.