textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitter cold this morning with wind chills of -15 to -30. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9 am.

- Cold and dry through the week.

UPDATE

Issued at 155 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Clear skies overnight have allowed temperatures to fall below zero across Iowa and expect they will continue to drop through sunrise. Winds remain at around 10-15 mph at most sites thanks to the upper level shortwave passing across Iowa (viewable in GOES-East water vapor imagery). Early this morning wind chills across Iowa range from -15 to -30. These will begin to improve by late morning as temperatures warm. The Cold Weather Advisory remains unchanged and runs through 9am. A compact shortwave moving north of the area today will pull a warm sector (warm used loosely here) across Iowa. Soundings indicate winds out of the southwest at 25-35 kts through the mixed layer this afternoon. While a WAA regime is not overly supportive of bringing those higher end gusts to the surface, do expect breezy conditions this afternoon and evening with gusts of 25-30 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Fairly quiet conditions across central Iowa this afternoon, with satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies for much of the area, outside of a few areas of broken mid to low level cloud cover into north/west Iowa that has been gradually dissipating as it tracks southeast through the day so far. Under some of this cloud cover mainly over southwest Minnesota and eastern South Dakota, periods of light flurries to snow showers have been on and off, with all forecast guidance keeping any of these flurries/showers out of Iowa as a look at soundings show dry air in the low levels really limiting this potential. Cannot completely rule out a few flurries in far northwest Iowa, but with such isolated coverage and limited potential, have left the forecast dry. At the surface, a large area of high pressure is currently centered over the Dakotas, which will continue its southerly descent across the Plains into tonight. Surface winds out of the north/northwest have increased slightly this afternoon, with occasional gusts mainly east of I-35, with values up to 20 mph. Temperatures have warmed up despite this northwest flow, which is thanks to the majority of areas seeing sunlight reach the surface, as 2pm temperatures range in the single digits north and in the low teens south. A look further up in the atmosphere, particularly at the mid-levels, indicates more active conditions in the form of a potent trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest, with a lobe of energy expected to pass across Iowa later this evening, bringing with it the next shot of bitter cold air that will remain into early Monday morning. While dry weather is expected to hold, temperatures will plummet this evening and especially overnight, with morning lows bottoming out in the -10 to -15 range north and in the -5 to -10 range south. Northwest winds will be a bit breezy as well with occasional gusts up to 15-20mph, especially north, which will result in even colder nighttime wind chills in the -20 to -30 range north and in the -15 to -20 range south. Therefore, the Cold Weather Advisory across the entire forecast area remains in effect, starting at midnight tonight until 9am Monday. For the start of the work week, the larger scale pattern will feature broad mid-level ridging across the western CONUS, which will put Iowa in northwesterly flow, along with generally drier air overhead. Near the surface, this will result in warming temperatures thanks to surface flow out of the southwest into Iowa, with breezy winds gusting up to 20-30 mph by late morning through the afternoon, highest in the northwest. Temperatures will remain below freezing but will be noticeably warmer than previous days, with forecast highs in the low to mid teens east/northeast and in the upper teens to low 20s west Monday. There remains the indication per guidance of an area of low pressure riding the larger scale ridge into the Great Lakes late Monday into Tuesday morning, which looks to bring precipitation chances into those areas, but remaining well north and east of Iowa. Though remaining dry into Iowa, this clipper will extend some cold air into north/east Iowa Tuesday, leading to colder highs in upper single digits to mid teens, while the rest of the state remains more mild in the upper teens to low 20s, with breezy conditions. High pressure settles overhead briefly Tuesday evening, departing into Wednesday.

Little change in the overall pattern through the mid-late week period, as the western thermal ridge continues to build, resulting in the continued period of ''milder'' temperatures across the southwest half of the state in the teens to 20s. Further north/east, the gyre of mid-level low pressure circulating over southern Canada into the Great Lakes will keep a colder airmass extending into northeast Iowa, resulting in generally colder conditions there through the rest of the work week as highs generally remain in the single digits to low teens. With dry air generally over much of Iowa as a few waves of surface high pressure glide through, guidance indicates very little chance for precipitation. Worth mentioning though is a weak signal for some moisture return paired with a passing shortwave down across the Dakotas, indicating very low chances (<15%) for snow into far western Iowa later Thursday/Friday per GFS/Euro, though low confidence given this is several days out. Something to keep an eye on through the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Patchy MVFR stratus is passing south of FOD and will pass largely west of DSM. Confidence is too low to include, but there could be a brief window of MVFR ceilings at DSM around the start of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the period as winds become from the southwest and turn gusty by Monday afternoon. While surface winds remain elevated into the evening and low level winds increase, the threshold for low level wind shear does not look to be met at this time.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097.