textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions for snow free areas through late this afternoon.

- A band of snow will affect southern Minnesota and far northern and northeastern Iowa Saturday morning. The highest accumulations will be over southern Minnesota into extreme northeastern Iowa.

- Wintry precipitation continues to trend southward in the state later Sunday into early Monday.

- Milder into next week with several rounds of precipitation chances possible, mainly in the form of rain accompanied by thunder at times.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

GOES-East upper level water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough spinning into the Quebec province early this afternoon. Attached to this trough is a surface cold front approaching Iowa from the northwest. Ahead of this front, there has been a surface trough that has moved through Iowa and is denoted by the wind shift from southwesterly to more westerly. The inversion that was present earlier today has mixed out, which has allow for gustier winds as well as some drier air to reach the surface in snow free areas. For these areas, temperatures have soared well into the 60s while making a run into the low 70s in parts of southern Iowa. The mixed out, gustier winds has resulted in Red Flag Criteria observations at both Estherville and Algona in the last two hours. Thus, in coordination with Sioux Falls, have expanded the warning into parts of north central and all of northwest Iowa. For southern Iowa, the Red Flag Warning remains on track with lower RHs paired with breezy winds. For the snow pack areas, various GOES-East RGB imagery (e.g. Day Cloud Phase Distinction, Day Snow Fog, Blowing Snow) depict the deeper snowpack over central Iowa east of I-35 into northeastern Iowa. This is causing temperatures to hold largely in the 40s to low 50s.

We quickly transition from red flag conditions as winds ease tonight and RHs recover to winter weather. Shortwave energy moving in the northwesterly flow will reach Iowa towards Saturday morning with an area of QG convergence and low level theta-e advection accompanying this energy. A band of frontogenetical forcing will be dropping through the Dakotas into the Driftless Region, which may skim northern Iowa. The trend has been for the resultant snow band to be near if not just north of Iowa, where surrounding offices have issued Winter Weather Advisories. The snowfall in our far northern Iowa forecast area looks to be around or under an inch. As this scoots away Saturday afternoon, a piece of shortwave energy will break off from a central West Coast shortwave trough and move towards the region. Ahead of this energy, isentropic ascent in the 295-300K layer will try to saturate the atmosphere over Iowa. However, a 1036mb high passing into the Great Lakes Sunday looks to funnel drier air into the low levels. Outside of the Canadian, models are focusing much of the precipitation south of the state. The latest trend in the ECMWF and AIFS is now southward in the latest run compared to last night's run. Thus, not surprising to see the latest forecast powered by the initial National Blend of Models (NBM) has trended PoPs southward with any given location seeing a decrease of 10 to 20%. Still think the PoPs and snowfall is a bit too far north into central and northern Iowa so expect that the northern edge will trend southward over the next 36 hours or so in the forecast data.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 243 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

After Monday, the remainder of the week looks active with multiple precipitation chances as shortwave troughs track into and through the region with conditions turning milder with above normal temperatures. Ahead of these shortwaves, there will be warm air advection and moisture transport such that much of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain. In addition and depending on the track of surface lows, instability will works its way into at least southern and/or eastern parts of the state with sufficient deep layer shear. Therefore, chances for thunderstorms look increasingly likely with machine learning and artificial intelligence guidance pointing to low (<5%) severe probabilities entering portions of Iowa.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1038 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Gusty winds will continue to calm this evening and VFR conditions will prevail at least through the overnight. At all sites, wind direction will shift from northerly to easterly from 6z-14z. Chances for snow remain in the forecast for KMCW and KALO, reaching PROB30 thresholds at KMCW from 12z-18z. A PROB30 group for KALO may be added in future updates as certainty allows. Will continue to monitor likelihood and timing of this snow. Headed into the 22z-6z timeframe at the end of the period, winds shift back to northerly and confidence is increasing for lower ceilings at the northern sites. MVFR or IFR ceilings may be reached, but confidence for inclusion in the TAFs is only large enough at KMCW and KALO at this time.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.