textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers gradually move in southwest to northeast tonight, becoming more widespread rain during the day Thursday. Rain gradually ends in the west Thursday night with wrap-around showers possible through Friday afternoon in the north and east. - Becoming windy and much cooler by Thursday night into Friday. Winds out of the north gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times.

- Frost is likely early Saturday with morning lows in the low to mid 30s.

- Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Surface high pressure continues to nudge into the region this afternoon, moving off to the northeast tonight. Cloud cover remains in much of the state and has kept temperatures down in the 50s to low 60s as expected. A few sites with a bit more clearing have climbed into the mid 60s in eastern Iowa. Dry conditions continue for a couple more hours before light rain showers begin to kick off late this afternoon into evening as theta-e advection increases ahead of the approaching upper trough/low. This upper low was analyzed just north of the Four Corners region around midday today and is expected to cross through the Central Plains during the day Thursday. A strong upper trough coming out of Canada will also move southward during the day Thursday ultimately absorbing the other upper low and becoming a strong, deepening upper trough that crosses through much of the central U.S. from later Thursday through Friday. Moisture gradually builds tonight through Thursday and although the deepest moisture remains to the south of our area, pwats will be around 1.25-1.75 during the daytime Thursday as the lee side surface low moves through the region changing our showery activity that gradually moves southwest to northeast from this evening/tonight to more widespread rain from early Thursday morning through the afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible at times, especially in southern Iowa. Rain gradually ends Thursday night into Friday morning from the initial system but some wrap around precipitation from the 2nd system to the north may bring some additional rain showers to especially northern/northeast/east central Iowa on Friday morning. Have slowed down the PoP departure (or reintroduced in some cases) to account for these additional rain chances on Friday morning. Rain totals through the entire event are not wild, largely below to around 1" with more localized areas of 1-2". The rainy and cloudy conditions Thursday will be paired with temperatures held down largely in the 50s for most locations and in the 60s for areas far south/southeast.

Strong cold air advection will be brought into the area as the system to the north passes sending temperatures falling into the 30s to 40s by Friday morning. Conditions will feel even colder as winds out of the north also increase from Thursday night through Friday morning with gusts peaking at least in the 35-45 mph range, some higher gusts are certainly possible prior to winds gradually decreasing through the afternoon and evening Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes. High temperatures in the 50s will feel even colder with the strong, gusty winds. Time to find those jackets!

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Surface high pressure returns later Friday night into Saturday morning leading to light winds, clear skies and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be in the low to mid 30s with frost conditions likely so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! With the surface high and an upper ridge in place, dry conditions are expected for the weekend. Temperatures begin to rebound again by later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns. This translates to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s Saturday, mid to upper 60s Sunday and then Monday, and in the low to mid 70s Tuesday-Wednsday.

The GFS brings a small system near to through the region on Monday but the going forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Stratus continues across much of the area except for a small strip in portions of central Iowa. Many locations remain at MVFR early this afternoon with only minimal improvement expected later this afternoon before clouds thicken into this evening as rain moves into and through the area southwest to northeast with showers starting later this evening before becoming more widespread rain on Thursday and gradually tapering off into Thursday evening/early Friday morning. Ceilings will degrade into Thursday becoming IFR to even LIFR at times with visibilities also falling at times during periods of more persistent rain and any fog. Timing and related impacts may still need some fine-tuning in subsequent issuances. Confidence in thunder was too low to include at KOTM but could be needed in a subsequent issuance as well. Winds out of the northeast will remain lighter today into tonight but much stronger winds are expected later Thursday into Friday, beyond the end of this TAF period.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.