textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions continue this afternoon with gusts of 40-45+ mph. A cold front passes across Iowa today with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across Iowa this afternoon and evening.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances later Thursday into early Friday. A few stronger storms are possible over southern Iowa.

- Active pattern continues this weekend into early next week with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Monitor for any severe weather or heavy rainfall concerns.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A surface low sits north of Iowa with attendant surface cold front pushing across northwest into central Iowa. This will pass across the state through the afternoon and tonight. Southwest winds ahead of the front have been strong with gusts of 40-45 mph recorded across much of Iowa. A handful of sites have even gusted 50+ mph today. At the same time, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop with the cold front into this afternoon, continuing through tonight. Instability and shear are fairly weak with the cold front and severe storms are not expected. The cold front sinks south of the area late tonight and then hangs up across northern Missouri.

By Thursday a surge of theta-e advection will help to push this boundary back north into Iowa. This will result in renewed convective development across the southern half of Iowa through Thursday and into early Friday morning. A plume of 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE reach southern Iowa with plenty of available shear may help to organize convection in far southern Iowa. Even so, model soundings are deeply saturated with a surface inversion, a feature also noted in the previous discussion. This should limit much in the way of severe into Iowa, but a stronger cell may develop hail. Of greater confidence is the widespread rain across southern and central Iowa Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. There is a plume of deep moisture transport into the area with PWATs of 1-1.5" across the Iowa-Missouri border. A widespread 0.5-1" is expected across central to southern Iowa with parts of southern Iowa seeing a potential 1-2+" by Friday morning. Given the dry conditions in southern Iowa this week, only limited hydro concerns with this round of precipitation.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

High pressure builds Friday, shoving the boundary back south and keeping the area dry for much of the day. Meanwhile a large trough will deepen across the western US with a weak embedded wave out ahead. This will lift across Iowa on Saturday with a surge of theta- e advection into the area. Deep moisture transport increases into the area at the same time with PWATs of 1.5" areawide. Soundings are again deeply saturated and severe threat Saturday is low. An additional widespread 1" of QPF with pockets of 2" is expected Saturday into Sunday. By early next week the western US trough will have made it to the central US, bringing rounds of severe weather. Timing and placement of severe potential is still uncertain given shifts in the track of the system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A cold front will move across central Iowa this afternoon into the evening. Ahead of this front, very strong southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 kts will continue. A few rain showers are expected along the cold front. However, with dry air in place, many of the rain showers will not reach the ground and will rather instead be in the form of virga. Winds will turn to the west and then the northwest behind the cold front late this afternoon and into the evening.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Rainfall up to 1-2" is expected in southern Iowa with the boundary hung up across central and southern Iowa Thursday into early Friday morning. Southern Iowa has capacity for moisture given earlier precipitation that largely missed that part of the state, but it will set the stage for possible impacts from later rounds of rain. By Saturday and Sunday another widespread 1+" will fall across the state with higher 2+" pockets possible. The first half of next week remains active with additional rain possible. HEFS 10 day probability of exceedance notes that many sites have 50% chances for reaching action. Going up to the 10% chance of exceedance brings a handful of sites reaching minor flood. Exact QPF amounts and placement will have notable differences to impact and the forecast will continue to be fine tuned over the next several days.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for IAZ004>007- 015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062.