textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory in Emmet County for impacts from freezing rain overnight. Black ice possible on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses.

- Breezy and cooler Saturday followed by breezy and warmer on Sunday. Elevated fire weather concerns may develop on Sunday as well given the warm, breezy, and drier airmass.

- Next chance for rain and storms is later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 327 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Temperatures have dropped below freezing in northwest Iowa this morning and fog has begun to develop from remnant moisture. The deformation axis has largely stayed west of the area this morning, but low-level moisture and weak lift has led to freezing drizzle as far east as Algona. Have elected to keep the Winter Weather Advisory where it is as the precipitation axis continues to focus into southern Minnesota. Additionally, road temperatures have remained above freezing elsewhere in the area, mitigating impacts. Still, slick spots are possible this morning on elevated surfaces.

A thermal minimum remains over the state only temporarily. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s with clearing skies. Southwest flow ensues on Sunday and recovers highs back into the 60s. Fuels will start to dry out with the lower Tds and warmer temperatures, with fire weather concerns on Sunday due to wind gusts. While Monday will be warmer and more dry, winds begin to decrease.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Winds will be not as strong on Monday and may mitigate fire weather concerns with similar conditions otherwise as low pressure tracking over southern Canada sends a cold front into the state with uncertainty in its placement. Initial National Blend of Models (NBM) shows this uncertainty in its temperature forecast with 25th-75th spreads of 20 degrees and run to run inconsistency in its deterministic forecast. While it is still confident to say that temperatures will be above normal, how much will be the question on Monday and Tuesday. As the Baja closed low opens up into the southern Plains late Tuesday, the northern stream trough will begin to push southward towards Iowa. There does look to be theta-e advection ahead of these features that will lift the stalled front back into some portion of the state and bring a chance for showers and storm. Depending on the location of the boundary, there may be appreciable instability and shear for stronger storms in southern or southeastern Iowa with this supported by the AI/ML convective hazard forecasts as well. As the northern stream trough pushes this all out of Iowa Wednesday, should see cooler, but still above normal temperatures somewhere in or around the 50s through the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Mist is being reported in northern Iowa, which is likely freezing drizzle given the air and ground temperatures dropping below freezing. Have added a TEMPO for FZDZ for MCW and FOD for the next 2 hours and will evaluate if it will last longer. Ice accumulations around a glaze possible. Further south for DSM, temperatures are expected to remain above freezing, so have left as -DZ in a TEMPO group. Some temporary MVFR vsby restrictions can be seen just to the west.

IFR conditions are common area-wide and the end to the stratus is entering western Iowa. VFR conditions will arrive around midday. LLWS expected for all terminals after a wind shift after 00z.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for IAZ004>006-015-016-023-024.