textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly well above temperatures throughout the 7 day forecast.

- Light rain and snow chances (30 to 50%) return Wednesday night and Thursday morning, mainly over northern Iowa. Minor snowfall accumulations are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Large area of high pressure is moving into the South Dakota and Nebraska this afternoon and this has led to the thinning of the stratus cloud layer over northern Iowa. Much of this stratus has become more cellular as mixing and subsequent layer drying has occurred. Mostly static weather the next 30-36 hours as the high pressure moves across Iowa tonight and Wednesday before passing to the east Wednesday night. The lack of snow cover and dry conditions over Iowa will again result in temperatures well above normal on Wednesday despite the lack of any warm advection. Ample sunshine will provide good insolation for heating prior to high level clouds arriving late in the day over the west. Expect high temperatures in the 40s to low 50s Wednesday.

Modest moisture/theta-e advection will begin to stream back north on the backside of the departing high Wednesday night and in advance of an approaching short wave dropping through the northwest flow. Precipitation chances and type are the primary challenge here from 06z-18z Thursday. First saturation of the departing very dry airmass will be an initial challenge. At this time, sufficient forcing from kinematic and thermal dynamic processes within a moistening layer looks sufficient for a vast amount of hydrometeorgenesis. Assuming this does occur, hydrometeor loading of the dry layer below the 5-6 kft cloud bases, should be sufficient saturation for the precipitation to reach the surface. Therefore, increase precipitation chances over NBM, which was much less. Precipitation type is dependent on a near surface warm layer and this case, due to a spread in the temperature and dew points near surface which maybe artificially inducing melting in some solutions. Assuming the hydrometeor loading of sub cloud base, this will lead to cooling and temperatures and dew points converging on the near to below freezing wetbulb temperatures. In that scenario, this also would produce more snow than rain which could result in the light accumulations over northern Iowa. Given the forcing parameterizations, the precipitation may be more showery as opposed to stratiform so local one inch amounts are possible.

Beyond Thursday, the upper flow will transition to more westerly/zonal flow, which is mild this time of year, again especially with no snow cover. A closed low is still expected to move across the Southern Plains this weekend while a short wave passes north of the state. That northern short wave will limit the northward extent the southern system can lift and is leading to the diminishing precipitation chances. Ridging will occur by Monday followed by strong southwest flow, which should be even warmer flow provided that a mass stratus shield doesn't develop. The current day 7 has a return to 60 degrees for parts of central and southern Iowa while there will be lots of 50s Thu-Mon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period. Continue to monitor upstream stratus over northern MN/eastern ND which has begun to fill in again however, guidance largely has this staying north of Iowa/TAF sites. Thus, kept forecast with mostly clear skies through the night and daytime Wednesday before clouds start to stream in again from the west by evening. Light and variable winds overnight settle out of the west to northwest during the daytime Wednesday but remain light.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.