textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s.

- Cooldown Tuesday night, highs near 30 Wednesday.

- Accumulating snow with wind possible at times Thursday thru Saturday. Highest chance Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Midlevel clouds moved across western Iowa this afternoon, giving an intermission to the warming seen today. Temperatures had already eclipsed the 50s in some areas, which is about where the southwest half of the state will be for highs this afternoon. Similar temperatures will be seen tomorrow, held back by clouds and west- northwest flow. A moisture starved front will glide south in the afternoon followed by a more thermodynamic boundary Tuesday night. Midlevels are saturated with the first boundary, but that air will have a dry airmass below to contend with, limiting precipitation to sprinkles, at most. The RAP is the outlier at this time, bringing saturation to almost the whole column. A transient round of sprinkles will be possible with the second front as lapse rates steepen with the CAA. The bigger story will be the increase in winds and drop in temperatures.

By Wednesday morning, lows will be in the 20s, and little in the way of recovery will be made during the day. Northerly winds sustained between 20 and 25mph will reinforce cold air through the day. Southwest winds will recover highs some on Thursday in the southwest, but the northwest flow pattern opens us to a couple of windows of precipitation Thursday-Saturday. Available moisture has trended down, making for a high PoP, low qpf scenario. GFS soundings at this range have weak lift in our area, even closest to the forcing in the northeast, but the CAA points to frontogenetical forcing being in the picture somewhere as well as parts of the profile becoming unstable. Winds will increase and blow around whatever snow may fall or accumulate. What can be said with higher certainty is temperatures will tumble this weekend. Highs will only be in the teens and low 20s this weekend with near- zero lows in the mornings.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail into Tuesday afternoon, while winds turn from SSW to WNW and become gusty during the day. LLWS of around 40 KT is still anticipate during the early to mid-morning hours at the terminals. Late in the period, Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, lower stratus clouds will move in from the north resulting in ceilings somewhere between FL020 and FL050. Confidence in prevailing MVFR ceilings is not high enough to advertise that in the 06Z TAFs, but it is a possibility that will be monitored for later TAF issuances Tuesday.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.