textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy but dry today and Tuesday, with somewhat warmer temperatures in the upper single digits to low 20s, warmest southwest

- Colder weather returns late work week into the weekend, with frigid overnight temperatures below zero Friday and Saturday morning and even colder wind chills

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

The synoptic setup for today features a large mid-level thermal ridge across the western CONUS, while further east over the Great Lakes, the deepening trough that brought the frigid conditions over Iowa last night into today continues to move east out of the region. Dangerously cold temperatures started the day in the -10 to -15 range north and in the -5 to -10 range in southern Iowa, which were accompanied by even colder wind chills around -20 to -30 degrees north and -10 to -20 degrees south. Temperatures since this morning have increased quite nicely across the state though in the teens across the forecast area. This warming is thanks to southwesterly surface slow becoming widespread over the region, with increasing warm air advection resulting in breezy conditions across Iowa. So far, gusts have reported in the 20-30 mph range as expected over much of the area, though overperforming at times along and west of I-35 where a handful of 35 mph gusts have been reported, with an isolated 40mph report at Carroll. These winds will continue to be breezy into the evening generally in the 20-30 mph range, then decreasing slightly before shifting northwesterly into Tuesday morning. Overnight lows are expected to fall into the low single digits north and in the low teens south.

Further north, a trough passing across Ontario through the rest of today into Tuesday. Any precipitation with this clipper system riding the larger scale flow continues to trend further north/east away from Iowa, with plenty of dry air overhead keeping conditions dry. Surface high pressure will slide down across the Central Plains through the day, with highs expected in the single digits to low teens northeast and in the upper teens to low 20s southwest. By Wednesday, the western thermal ridge will move closer to Iowa that will result in even warmer conditions overhead, with afternoon high temperatures slated to peak in the mid to upper 20s in the southwest half of Iowa. Further north and east though, the large gyre of low pressure slowly circulating over the Upper Midwest/Southern Canada and its associated cold airmass will keep more chilly temperatures extending into north/east Iowa in the teens. A weak shortwave within the large ridge passing southeast across the western plains is hinted Wednesday, with a return of Pacific mid-level moisture into Iowa per NAM guidance, which places a narrow ribbon light snow over northern into eastern Iowa. A closer look at model soundings from the NAM show a deep isothermal layer in the low levels in northeast Iowa, along with notable lift, however the remainder of deterministic model solutions keep the forecast dry due to plentiful dry air in the low levels, so have favored the dry solution at this time and will continue to monitor.

Another area of surface high pressure sinks down into the region towards Thursday as Iowa generally remains between the two larger aforementioned large-scale features. The deepening trough and associated cold airmass over the Great Lakes as indicated from GFS/Euro guidance then sinks south across the region, cutting Iowa off from the warmer thermal ridge to the west through the start of the weekend and bringing chilly conditions overhead. Temperatures as a result will trend colder once again Thursday and especially into Friday as morning lows bottom out below zero across Iowa, along with wind chills well below zero in the -15 to -25 range, coldest north. Could see a cold weather headline issued in northern Iowa later this week if expected temperatures continue to lower at least in northern Iowa. Dry conditions look to hold otherwise as any weak shortwaves attached to the larger ridge generally stay west of Iowa.

A weak boundary passing through Iowa by Saturday from west to east per guidance may bring some low chances for snow west, but the moisture availability remains more questionable as this seems very limited given the larger presence of dry air that looks to remain over the Midwest. Then, a pattern change looks to be on the way by Sunday into next week as the western thermal ridge finally arrives over the Midwest, which will gradually bring above normal temperatures into the region to start the month of February around or just above freezing, which will be a welcome change for those who prefer the warmer conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1028 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail as winds continue to be the main feature in this forecast period. A boundary dropping into the area through the morning will flip southwesterly winds to a westerly then northwesterly component. Winds will be breezy with gusts up to 25 kts possible behind the boundary, especially in the north and east at KMCW, KALO, and KOTM. Breezy winds then pick up across the area after sunrise today, with 20 to 25 kts gusts likely at all sites and gusts nearing 30 kts possible at KMCW and KALO during the day.

Cloud cover remains mostly scattered and VFR through Tuesday. However, a brief period of MVFR cloud cover is possible behind the boundary this morning at KMCW and KALO. Tempos have been included for the expected time of MVFR conditions but amendments may be needed.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.