textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and mild today. Slightly cooler with less wind on Monday.

- Mostly dry with a warming trend through this week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 209 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Large area of high pressure extends from the New England region to Texas this morning and this system will continue to be reinforced throughout most of this week and remain in a similar position. This pattern shuts off any Gulf moisture transport. Weak ridging is ongoing into the region in the mid-levels and this will transition to west/southwest flow as an upper low to the southwest of California moves eastward. This transition will lead to some passing cirrus high level clouds as modest Pacific monsoonal flow moisture reaches the area. For today, breezy to gust south wind with temperatures again exceeding NBM values. The low level thermal ridge will be over the state today and that combined with the dry air still in place and good mixing, will result in the warmer than guidance temperatures in the 60s today. The 850 mb temperatures do cool into Monday as the weak ridging is flattened briefly ahead of the transition to the west/southwest flow. The lower level temperatures are less impacted but highs will be slightly cooler than today. The wind will be less as well on Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes along with weaker mixed layer winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

By Tuesday morning, a broad 500 MB high pressure ridge will be located over most of the central and eastern U.S. However, a weak shortwave will be moving off the Rockies and over the High Plains. This feature will pass slowly near Iowa on Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing some mid/high level clouds across the region during that time. A few model solutions even attempt to spit out light rainfall, however, forecast soundings indicate substantial dry air in the lower/near-surface levels with flow out of the Great Lakes ridge, which should preclude any meaningful chances of precipitation. Meanwhile, despite some increase in cloud cover, airmass modification should allow for continuation of a slow warming trend with temperatures peaking in the lower 70s or so on Wednesday afternoon.

From late Wednesday into Friday a more pronounced 500 MB ridge will build over the central U.S., including Iowa, supporting continued dry weather and slow warming. Highs in the 70s are forecast both Thursday and Friday. Eventually, by the end of the week, a deep 500 MB trough will move into the western U.S. Rockies and bring a return of more changeable weather and some rain chances by next weekend. Any details of timing/location of rain chances and other sensible weather fields are still in flux at this range, but will steadily come into better focus as this week progresses.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Southerly wind increasing and becoming breezy by mid morning then diminishing towards sunset represents the main focus for this forecast period. Widespread VFR conditions are expected.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.