textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- A 1-2", with localized higher amounts, band of snow this afternoon into evening from northwest into portions of central Iowa (around Hwy 30). Less than 1 inch further south near to south of I-80. Little to no snow in the northeast.

- Freezing drizzle may develop over parts of central and south central Iowa late this evening and overnight.

- Dry with temperatures warming again Thursday and Friday.

- More precipitation possible through the weekend and into next week with potential for more accumulating snow Sunday, but details remain uncertain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Challenging forecast remains in place for this afternoon into tonight. Surface high pressure drifting southeastward through the region has resulted in single digit dew points over portions of northern into northeast Iowa early this afternoon. Dew point depressions further south and west are still 10+ degrees as well. With this dry air in place, radar returns before midday were likely not reaching the ground. However, conditions have begun to saturate from the top down with snow beginning to be reported in northwest Iowa as of 18Z. Guidance from last night into this morning has continued to be all over the place with models having a difficult time resolving the location, timing, QPF and resultant snow amounts within the snow band expected this afternoon into tonight. Some have moved the band to southern Iowa, others a little further north than the previous forecast, as well as some have trended up on amounts while others down. Based on the parameter space (forcing, moisture) and where snow has started to develop, largely kept previous forecast in place refining the band location slightly further north from portions of northwest through central Iowa, centering around the highway 30 corridor in central Iowa. This tightened up snow amounts further south to be less than 1 inch along the I-80 corridor, while the snow band itself has snowfall amounts of 1-2", quickly diminishing outside of the band. Can't rule out some isolated higher totals within the snow band itself with snow rates reaching up to 0.5"/hour. While not expecting much in the way of winds, some localized visibility reductions remain possible within the heavier band/during the higher rates of snow. The system will be a quick-hitter meaning that the snow itself will only last for a few hours which is certainly helping to reduce the snow totals in any one location. However, with the quick loss of ice introduction but lingering low-level saturation, a change to freezing rain or freezing drizzle on the backside remains. The main question is will forcing still be present after ice introduction is lost, but while moisture remains. Forecast soundings and cross sections are mixed in particular locations with time, but overall trends are in portions of west central to southern Iowa where this freezing rain/drizzle scenario are most likely. Road temperatures as of midday in the locations most likely to see the freezing rain/drizzle were in the 40s to even 60s which may help limit impacts to more elevated surfaces. As such, confidence remains too low in impacts to warrant a winter weather headline but conditions will be watched closely. Some slick travel is certainly possible for anyone with travel plans late this afternoon through evening for the snow, and extending into the overnight hours south for the freezing drizzle.

Behind the departing system, dry and warmer days are on tap to end the work week. Each day (Thursday, then Friday) will be increasingly warmer with warm air advection really ramping up into Friday. As noted in previous discussions, temperatures over the lingering snowpack in the NBM have been too high, so continued with previous forecasts in dropping highs over the northeast back into parts of central Iowa. Although the snowpack will limit the extent of high temperatures for those with snowpack, the warmer temperatures will help melt the existing snowpack. Meanwhile, those without snowpack will be able to make a run at the upper 50s to even 60s again on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 238 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

An active forecast returns for the weekend with another quick- hitting system bringing more chances for snow to mainly northern into northeastern Iowa on Saturday. Outside of the Euro, most models have come into decent agreement of a glancing blow to northern/northeastern Iowa with this system keeping most dry, but the far north/northeast with a quick inch or less of snow. The more noticeable impact for most will be the cooler temperatures as highs fall back to seasonal if not below normal temperatures by Sunday with temperatures in the 20s to low 30s.

A potentially more impactful system is on the horizon for Sunday into Monday, however there remains considerable uncertainty with this system. As one example, 25-75th probabilities for snowfall accumulations range from 0-8 inches over a good portion of central Iowa. With the exact track and the timing of the system still unknown at this point given the range in possibilities, it remains too early to speculate exact amounts or impacts for any one location. It should be noted that temperature profiles over portions of southern Iowa into northern Missouri may actually favor more of a wintry mix with snow transitioning to freezing rain with the loss of ice introduction or just freezing rain. This period will continue to be watched closely with potential impacts to start the next work week.

Additional systems follow mid-week to certainly later next week with details to come, but an active period continuing through next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The last round of precipitation will move across central Iowa early tonight. A wintry mix of freezing rain and snow will impact the DSM and OTM terminals through about 08-09z before shifting sewd and ending. Expect a period of MVFR VSBYs and CIGs as the precipitaiton moves through. While there will be low stratus clouds in the wake of the system, low confidence on magnitude of CIGs. Decided to include a period of MVFR conditions at the southern terminals through Thursday AM, but its possible conditions will remain VFR, or perhaps IFR conditions could develop, along with patchy fog. Improvement at all terminals will occur after 15Z Thursday, with VFR conditions expected the remainder of the period.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.