textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers gradually end southwest to northeast this evening though additional wrap-around showers are possible in the north and east overnight into Friday morning. - Becoming windy and much cooler tonight into Friday. Winds out of the northwest gusting to at least 35-45 mph at times, with some higher gusts possible in the north/northwest Friday morning.

- A Freeze Watch was issued for much of the area Saturday morning with lows in the low the upper 20s to low 30s.

- Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions expected this weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Near widespread rain this morning has begun to decrease in coverage this afternoon and this trend is expected to gradually continue southwest to northeast through the rest of the afternoon into evening. Temperatures today have been held down by the clouds and rain with locations north in the upper 40s to low 50s, central in the 50s, and further south to southeast where winds still remain out of the south to southeast, in the 60s to even low 70s.

The strong upper trough remains to our west this afternoon but will continue to deepen as it swings through the central U.S. tonight through Friday. The pressure gradient will continue to strengthen tonight and strong cold air advection will be brought into the area tonight into Friday morning leading to increasing winds and decreasing temperatures. Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to 40s but will be kept from falling off too much with more minimal clearing expected between clouds starting to depart following the rain this evening and additional cloud cover moving in from the north as the system wraps around into Friday morning. Additional rain showers are also expected as we get the wrap-around precipitation overnight into Friday morning, mainly in the north and east. Along with the cloudy, and in some cases light rain, tonight into Friday will generally not be pleasant as the strong winds out of the northwest continue to increase. These winds look to peak on Friday morning sustained around 20-30 mph with gusts of 35-40 mph common, and some gusts near to in excess of 45 mph, especially in northern to northwestern Iowa. Cloud cover may help limit the amount of mixing and thus the strongest wind gusts, but forecast soundings do reveal many locations in northwest Iowa with top of the mixed- layer winds (which is only like 15-25kft early Friday) in the 40-50 knot range so certainly don't want to discount the potential for some 45-55 mph gusts and thus a wind headline. Overall wind gusts look to remain largely below wind advisory criteria and at this time plan to address with a SPS. Feel-like temperatures to start the day Friday will be in the 30s and only warming into the 40s to low 50s as highs themselves down't make it much past the low to mid 50s. Some patchy fog may also be possible tonight into Friday morning especially south or southeast where any clearing may linger longest.

Winds then gradually decrease through the afternoon to evening Friday northwest to southeast but temperatures remain chilly for any Friday evening activities.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 254 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Surface high pressure gradually moves into the region Friday night into Saturday morning allowing winds to drop off, skies to clear, and good radiational cooling. Temperatures by Saturday morning fall into the upper 20s to low 30s. A Freeze Watch has been issued for Saturday morning to account for these low temperatures so make plans now to protect any sensitive vegetation! The pressure gradient tightens again Saturday behind the departing high pressure leading to breezy winds, especially north, Saturday into Sunday. Conditions otherwise remain dry with the surface high and an upper ridge in place. Temperatures begin to rebound later Saturday into Sunday as southwest flow returns translating to gradually increasing highs this weekend into early next week. Highs in the 50s Saturday become 60s Sunday-Monday and 70s again by Tuesday. There are a few hints of a small system near the region around Monday night but our forecast remains dry until mid to later next week when there is a bit more consensus for returning precipitation chances though details will continue to be refined in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR cigs have been extended in time in the short term, but vsbys from rain have trended better, so have removed those restrictions. VFR cigs will provide some intermission ahead of MVFR stratus in Minnesota. This cloud deck will re-cover all terminals eventually, giving another chance of rain in the early morning and keeping MVFR chances through at least the mid afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will increase with time, peaking in the morning hours tomorrow. 40kt gusts are most possible at KMCW and KFOD before 18z.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>085-092>096.