textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and warm conditions are expected for the area this weekend, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. A few light rain showers/sprinkles move through tonight, but no accumulations are expected. - Additional light shower chances are possible south Saturday night into early Sunday along the Iowa/Missouri border. A few rumbles of thunder possible, but severe weather is unlikely.

- Warmer temperatures through next week, with the potential for mores showers and thunderstorms late Monday into Tuesday. Severe weather threat will be better determined in the coming days.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Quite pleasant conditions are in place over much of central and northern Iowa today, with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s early this afternoon. Deep boundary layer mixing has allowed for light to breezy winds and dry conditions this afternoon, especially over northern and north central Iowa where gusts near 20 to 30 mph are expected this afternoon. Farther south in southern Iowa, radar and satellite imagery showed light returns within cloud cover through mid-day. Dry sub-cloud air limited most of this precipitation, but light rain was occasionally reported on surface observations. Regardless, this are of light rain and clouds has all but moved out of the area this afternoon, giving way to clearer skies and warmer temperatures.

Our northwest flow pattern continues today as the Hudson Bay low continues to churn. This will generally keep conditions status quo through the weekend, with occasional light rain chances as weak waves pass through the flow pattern. The first of these chances will move through later today and tonight, as high resolution guidance generates scattered light showers along a weak trough. With the very dry low level air, it seems unlikely much, if any, of this will reach the ground, but have maintained a 10 to 15% chance of rain as it passes through.

A second wave moving through the plains to our west will bring some better moisture advection northward ahead of a surface boundary, resulting in light rain chances over southern Iowa Saturday night into early Sunday. This precipitation will still need to fight through the dry layer below, but will have slightly better moisture depth aloft to help saturate down through the layer. Likewise, some weak instability will develop right along the Iowa/Missouri border, helping to provide lift needed for hydrometeor production. Much of this activity seems to stay along and south of the Iowa/Missouri border, so have kept a 20 to 25% chance for rain focused in those areas. Some high resolution guidance also has light rain as far north as the Interstate 80 corridor, but moisture availability decreases farther north and chances of saturating through the layer are lower. With 500 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE present along and south of the border, a few rumbles of thunder are possible, but the severe weather threat is low.

Outside of the aforementioned light rain chances, most of the area will experience warm and dry conditions through the weekend. Temperatures will generally be in the 60s and 70s, with a few locations pushing 80 in southern Iowa on Saturday before the front arrives. Saturday will be a bit breezy as northerly winds bring cold air advection and sinking air into Iowa. Lighter winds and partly sunny skies develop on Sunday as surface high pressure moves in, making for a pleasant Mother's Day in Iowa.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The Hudson Bay low breaks up and departs east into the overall flow through the beginning of next week, releasing the western CONUS ridging eastward into the midwest. This will boost temperatures into the 70s and 80s through the first part of the work week, while also opening the state up to a better gulf moisture stream. Another wave will pass through the upper mississippi valley region late Monday into Tuesday, meeting with this moisture stream and bringing shower and thunderstorm chances back to the area. The progression of the system has slowed down a bit more into Tuesday, which could open up the potential for better instability as the front passes Tuesday afternoon. However, current deterministic guidance still keeps most of the QPF tied to the main wave north and east of the state, with little occurring over Iowa where the better instability resides. A deeper dive into model soundings shows a warm nose that is likely inhibiting parcels being lifted into the unstable layer. Therefore, capping, magnitude of instability, and frontal passage timing will all be something to watch as more guidance comes in through the weekend, especially with the healthy LLJ and wind fields associated with this system. GEFS AI/ML guidance isn't sold on severe weather potential on Tuesday, likely due to the questionable instability within guidance pulling probabilities down. Regardless, the takeaway is that shower and thunderstorm potential returns to begin next week, with a potential for at least a few stronger storms, depending on the mentioned factors. The stronger winds ahead and behind the system will also lead to breezy conditions on Tuesday as the front passes. Temperatures moderate some into Wednesday behind the front, but warm considerably through the second half of the week as thermal ridging builds back eastward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1023 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions expected at all terminals through the end of this TAF period. Skies will continue to clear over the next few hours for terminal sites. Clouds will then begin to move in from the north around 14z lowering ceiling heights between 10,000 and 8,000Ft. A few showers could pass over OTM and FOD during this time but due to dry air, it will limit rain reaching the ground. Winds at all terminal sites will begin to increase late morning and early afternoon to 12-17kts with gusts reaching 20-25 kts for all terminals. As we near the end of this TAF period, ceilings are expected to improve with winds decreasing.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.