textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record warmth continues today with breezy conditions through the afternoon.

- Low chances (<20%) for rain far south/southwest overnight. Greater chances (40-50+%) central and south late Tuesday/Tuesday night/early overnight Wednesday. A strong storm with hail, gusty winds, or pockets of heavy rain may occur.

- More widespread precipitation expected Wednesday night and Thursday.

- Seasonal temperatures through mid week and then turning much cooler to end the week and start next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today in our southwest flow regime. The thermal ridge nudging into the area has resulted in another very warm day with temperatures well into the 80s with some low 90s still likely before peak heating subsides this afternoon. Some relief is in sight. A weak cold front remains draped across northwest Iowa with temperatures behind in the the 60s to 70s closest to the front/Iowa, and temperatures in the 40s to 50s further upstream. The passage of this front will be slow to progress through the rest of the area tonight into the overnight and will stall out in the southeast/far south through much of Tuesday. The timing of this front keeps record warm low temperatures in play at most sites and potentially Ottumwa and Mason City for record high temperatures themselves. See the climate section below for the list of record warm and record warm minimum temperatures today. Breezy winds have been the other common feature with winds out of the southwest gusting to 20-30 mph. These winds may hang on a bit longer in the north tonight, but will otherwise decrease around sunset. As the front passes, mostly dry conditions are still expected with limited forcing and soundings indicating very dry profiles overall. May start to see some radar returns the later half of the overnight/early Tuesday morning in southwest Iowa where a few sprinkles may be possible but the higher rain chances hold off until Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

The aforementioned stalled boundary will be a foci for storm development especially as the low level jet ramps up Tuesday night. Although the overall parameter space and jet orientation is better/more favorable into MO and KS, there is a possibility for some late evening to mid overnight strong to marginally severe storms with hail and gusty winds as well as a few pockets of heavy rain in southern to portions of central Iowa. Shower/storm chances do increase from around midday through the afternoon Tuesday so some non-severe storms are possible before this later night/early overnight round, and then some storms may linger after into Wednesday morning, but 03-09Z (10p-4AM) looks to be our main window for stronger storms.

The cold front passage will bring cooler temperatures in the 60s to 70s north of the front while areas in the far south/southeast in the warm sector have another day of temperatures in the 80s pending cloud cover timing.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A dry period is then expected some of Wednesday daytime as surface high pressure returns to the area briefly. By evening, theta-e advection increases ahead of the approaching upper low off the Rockies and the lee surface low moves through the region on Thursday followed by the upper trough with a strong system also coming out of Canada later Thursday into Friday. This will bring more widespread precipitation chances from Wednesday night through Thursday. Temperatures will be closer to normal and in the 60s to low 70s through midweek. Then, behind the departing system, stronger cold air advection will arrive sending temperatures into the 50s to low 60s for Friday and Saturday and low temperatures in the 30s Friday night/Saturday morning. Will need to watch for frost potential to start the weekend with a surface high swinging through. With this high and an upper ridge, conditions are looking drier Friday through the weekend. Friday does look to be breezy to windy which could make it feel even cooler and will have to monitor for any fire weather conditions should there be enough time for fuels to dry after the rain on Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period with just some higher clouds around. Breezy winds out of the southwest continue through the afternoon with gusts to around 20-25 knots. Winds will then gradually shift to be out of the west to northwest tonight and will decrease into and through the evening with winds staying a little higher longer in the north. May have some LLWS develop again towards KOTM late tonight though conditions are borderline/not larger than a 30 knot difference but will continue to monitor trends. Clouds will then increase on Tuesday.

Record Max & Max Minimum Temperatures for Select Central Iowa Cities

================================================================== | 10/12 Previous | 10/12 Previous | Period | High Record/ | Max T Record/ | of City | Min Temp Year | Year | Record =================================================================== Des Moines | 66/1879 | 91/1899 | 1878- Mason City | 61/2008 | 89/1975 | 1903- Ottumwa | 68/1928 | 88/1975 | 1923- Waterloo | 64/1899 | 95/1930 | 1895- ===================================================================

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.