textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- A rainy morning as showers and storms overspread the area. Coverage will be highest this morning, turning more isolated to scattered this afternoon and tonight. Although conditional, a few storms could become strong later, containing hail tonight.

- Additional shower and thunderstorm chances for Sunday - best chance from Ames-Des Moines and areas to south and east. A few storms could be strong during the afternoon once again (conditional upon recovery).

- Much above normal temperatures early in the week will surge temperatures into the 80s; which along with moisture and an approaching storm system will set the stage for elevated severe weather potential.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A messy period with multiple days of thunderstorm chances, many of which hinge on how the previous day pans out and subsequent recovery, timing, etc. Unfortunately this lends itself to below average certainty in forecast specifics for this forecast cycle.

Regional radars are returning showers expanding into far western Iowa early this morning as an air mass with anomalously high moisture content begins advecting in. A few embedded lightning strikes have been also noted across N Kansas and SE Nebraska within the past hour. These are forming in an area of saturated isentropic ascent along the 295-300K layer, which will be the beginning of a prolonged multiday period of warm air advection. Latest HiRes guidance tracks this initial slug of moisture through central Iowa this morning and early this afternoon, becoming more isolated to scattered this afternoon/evening owing to broad, non-focused lift. Although conditional, MUCAPE's are progd to increase to around 1000 j/kg mainly west and north tonight. So if an elevated storm is able to develop it would be capable of producing marginally severe hail. See SPC's Day 1 Outlook. Rainfall amounts have trended downward for this period - depicted by the the latest HREF showing 40-50% chance for 0.5", for areas south of Highway 30. River rises are anticipated to be nominal and within bank today. Winds will begin ramping up tonight with HREF depicting an 80% likelihood of wind gusts of greater than 40 mph by daybreak Sunday. These winds will continue through the day on Sunday. If trends continue a wind advisory may be necessary.

By Sunday, southwest flow ensues translating a shortwave trough into Iowa around midday. Associated lift with this feature will set the stage for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Depending upon timing of the shortwave passage and whether or not the air mass can recover, there is another conditional chance for an isolated strong-severe thunderstorm or two. Sunday will be the transition day temperature-wise, returning to the 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The active period continues early next week as southwest flow prevails ahead of the approaching longwave trough. Reservoir of low-level moisture coupled with surface temperatures that warm into the low to mid 80s Monday & Tuesday will provide a good chance for a more organized severe weather set-up. Additionally, increasing mid/upper-level flow with the approach of the associated jet will boost deep-layer shear. Capping looks like it may be an issue in the warm sector for Monday - best chance north. See SPCs latest SWODY3. That should be less of an issue for Tuesday. Details will become more clear for severe potential in this period over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the terminals today resulting in degrading aviation conditions for airports. All terminals will begin the period VFR, however upstream observations reveal MVFR CIGS currently. These will move into the region depending on location between 14-18z. Further aviation condition deterioration is expected as moisture values continue to increase through the afternoon, likely dropping ceilings to IFR for a period later today and especially overnight. Winds will be from the southeast at 5-15 knots today. Wind gusts will increase through the period with gusts of 25-30 knots, which is expected to contribute to low- level wind shear.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Attention turns to potential impacts from additional rainfall this weekend and into next week. Although QPF location and timing remains uncertain and will drive where any potential high water sets up, the overall signal is that renewed or additional moderate or significant within-bank rises are likely across the eastern half of the state especially the eastern third, with some isolated to scattered minor river flooding and a couple locations possibly seeing moderate river flooding. Those with sensitivities to river flooding will want to stay on top of the forecast through at least the first half of next week.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.