textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain with a few thunderstorms continue this morning. A few stronger storms could produce small hail up to quarter sized. Mixed precipitation over northern Iowa will lead to continued concerns for light icing this morning.

- A strong cold front passes across Iowa northwest to southeast through the day on Sunday. A full transition to snow will occur late this morning to afternoon that will last through Sunday night and taper off Monday morning. By Monday morning temperatures will be near 0 with wind chills in the -10s to -20s.

- Strong winds will gust 55-65+ mph, resulting in significant blowing and drifting of snow. White-out conditions are expected at times. Travel will become very dangerous.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A variety of weather conditions have begun across the Midwest region this morning as a deepening low pressure system, centered over eastern Kansas slowly tracks eastward. On the northern fringe of this system, a large band of precipitation has developed as a result of strong frontogenetical forcing occurring, which is maximized over southern Minnesota into Wisconsin where heavy snowfall is ongoing. Further south into northern Iowa, precipitation has been variable in type, with reports of rain, freezing rain and sleet over this area, which is also paired with road temperatures in the low 30s. Have received reports of icing over parts of northwest Iowa, but is likely occurring over much of the northern portions of the state given similar conditions over these areas. Given the cooler temperatures and an increasing signal in light ice accumulations over northern Iowa, have increased icing amounts slightly in these areas. The ice alone will lead to hazardous conditions, so extreme caution should occur if outdoors. Also, weak thunderstorms have accompanied the mixed forms of precipitation in the same areas, which have produced notable lightning strikes but have otherwise struggled to really maintain updrafts, being very pulsey in nature and should continue as the precipitation lifts northeast with this initial wave. Cannot rule out the potential for hail production, with a low potential for isolated severe hail this morning if any storms can maintain a stronger updraft in this cold regime.

Outside of northern Iowa, seeing additional rain showers and isolated storms across western Iowa developing as an elevated boundary arrives into the state, which is expected to lift east/northeastward across central Iowa through much of the morning. Given temperatures generally expected to remain above freezing through the rest of the morning, this precipitation should remain as rain before the colder air arrives into the afternoon, where a switch over to snow is then expected. There is some concern that colder air could move in a bit faster than expected, given the quicker arrival of below freezing temperatures over northern Iowa, so will have to watch trends. An earlier arrival could mean a quicker transition to snow, though initial snowfall would likely struggle to accumulate given already wet surfaces and road temperatures a bit slower to cool down.

By this afternoon through the evening, will see widespread switchover to snow as strong northwest flow overspreads the area, bringing falling temperatures through the remainder of the day. Lingering instability over much of Iowa during this timeframe as snow falls per model soundings indicates the potential for convective elements such as thundersnow. Winds given the strong cold air advection remain likely to bring High Wind Warning criteria gusts up to 60-65+ mph over Iowa, especially across the western portions this afternoon to evening with the falling snow, with the expectation for blizzard conditions remaining likely through the remainder of the day and even into Monday morning even after the snow has tapered off. The current headlines continue to match expectations, so changes were not needed on this shift. Trends in latest guidance indicate higher end snow totals occurring over northern Iowa and areas east of I-35, where ensemble probabilities indicate probabilities of more than 4 inches in far northern/northeast Iowa, while probabilities of 2 inches are over 50% over the majority of central Iowa outside of the far southern parts.

Will see very cold temperatures settle over the state tonight into Monday morning, with forecast temperatures in the single digits, with even colder wind chills expected in the teens to 20s below zero, coldest west and north Monday morning. Significant impacts are expected as a whole over the next 24-36 hours due to these weather conditions, so it is strongly advised to avoid any kind of travel.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A shortwave will move across the midwest on Tuesday, grazing northern Iowa. This will bring another opportunity for light snow accumulation to northern Iowa. Thereafter, western US ridging shifts into the central US with high pressure keeping the area quiet and strong warm air advection into the area. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday could be slightly overdone depending on how much snow needs to be melted, but by the end of the week and next weekend, temperatures are expected to warm through the 60s and make a run at low 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Although VFR conditions are mainly in place to start the period, aviation conditions will degrade considerably through the night into Sunday morning. Rain showers begin north early overnight, transitioning to a wintry mix, and then becoming all snow Sunday morning. A similar transition will happen in central to southern Iowa, but is delayed until closer to Sunday midday (early afternoon for KOTM). Some thunderstorms will be possible early Sunday morning but confidence in impacts at at TAF site remains too low for inclusion. A light glaze of ice remains possible in mainly northern Iowa with the wintry mix. As the precipitation changes, visibilities will degrade to MVFR, becoming IFR to LIFR/VLIFR as the snow arrives with significant blowing/drifting of snow expected by around 18Z. Ceilings will similarly degrade with IFR or lower expected through much of the area through Sunday afternoon. Winds are the other main hazard with winds out of the southeast tonight gusting to 20-30 knots. The winds will switch to be out of the northwest as a strong cold front passes through Sunday morning with gusts of 40-50+ knots common Sunday afternoon and evening causing blizzard conditions with the falling and blowing snow.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ004>007-015>017- 023>028-033>039. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Monday for IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097. Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097.