textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather in southeast Iowa today. Will watch closely for chance for nearby wind and tornado threat.

- Breezy Wednesday with fire weather concerns.

- Next windows for precipitation late Thursday and again over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Troughing to the southwest continued to advect in the EML overnight, setting up midlevel instability for storms later today, seen best in low level water vapor satellite imagery. A surface low was analyzed over northwest Kansas. This low will get picked up by the inbound northern stream wave and advected northeast. Meanwhile, the LLJ is open into the Plains, but veers to the east as it nears Iowa. Low level moisture will be a challenge for precipitation in the next 24- 36 hours. Another surge of low-level moisture will come as the surface low grazes southern Iowa today. Enough theta-e advection may allow for cap erosion by midday today, which would translate to elevated thunderstorms with hail over southern and southeast Iowa. Straight hodographs with effective shear of around 40kts will allow elevated storms to last longer. The warm sector with 60 degree dew points is close by, residing in far southeast Iowa late this afternoon. Will need to monitor frontal placement for places like Davis county this afternoon as initiation of surface-based convection is progged to start near the warm front between 4 and 7pm. All hazards will be possible in the warm sector, with most of this activity contained to our south and east. Snow amounts on the back side of this exiting system continue to remain low (under 1"), owed to the lack of low-level moisture and delay in freezing temperatures until early Wednesday. Wind gusts as they sit on Wednesday may be underdone. Soundings suggest the average PBL winds are close to 30kts and strong subsidence and dry air give high confidence that these winds will transfer down.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Troughing ensues over the Great Lakes region for the remainder of the week, effectively locking Iowa into northwest flow for the remainder of the period. There will be a temperature gradient across the state as the thermal ridge gets pulled into the state from passing waves. The main windows of precipitation come in late Thursday and again late Saturday and Sunday. The second system brings chances for snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Variable winds in southern Iowa have led to IFR to LIFR fog near OTM so have added temporary restrictions through 14z. Moisture will lift into a low cig through the day, becoming SCT with time. A front will sit across the far south with an area of low pressure leading to a period of vrb winds for KDSM.

For KOTM, an early afternoon (around 18z) round of showers and storms are possible, but confidence at this time is under 20%, so it's not mentioned. Hail will be possible in the first round. Thunderstorms will then begin near OTM after 21z, but uncertainty remains in location, so have added a Prob30 group. All modes of severe weather will be possible with this second round of storms.

Rain, some snow, and lowering cigs then arrive from the north after 06z with sites possibly dropping from MVFR to IFR near the end of the TAF period.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.