textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather generally expected today through much of Tuesday, with highs in the 80s.

- The next chance for showers and storms arrives late Tuesday/early Wednesday.

- Warmer temperatures by late week, along with periods of storm chances

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Dry and relatively quiet conditions are noted across Central Iowa early this morning, with temperatures currently sitting in the mid 60s to low 70s under clear skies. Several sites are reporting calm winds, which paired with clear skies and residual moisture overhead will likely lead to areas of patchy fog development. Seeing only minor visibility reductions over northern and western Iowa so far around 6-8 statute miles, though the expectation is for patchy fog to develop over the next few hours across much of the forecast area and remain until just after sunrise, before dissipating. This could lead to some minor travel delays, so planning ahead and taking it slow is recommended. Surface analysis this morning is an area of surface high pressure that is centered over the upper Great Lakes. Little movement of this feature through today will result in rather pleasant summer weather conditions, as winds will remain light as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80s with diurnal cumulus development. Through the evening, a weak surface boundary descending across central to southern Minnesota per model guidance may try to carry weakening showers and storms near the MN/IA border, though trends indicate this activity dissipating before making it to Iowa, given drier near surface air and limited forcing. Therefore have left a dry forecast for this evening into tonight. Overnight lows into Tuesday are expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s under partly to mostly clear skies.

The aforementioned surface high pressure will only track slightly southeastward Tuesday, still influencing Iowa that will ultimately aid in keeping conditions on the dry side. A gradual shift to southerly/southeasterly flow and partly to mostly clear skies will likely lead to a slight increase in highs, with values expected to top out in the mid to upper 80s. Within the larger upper level ridge moving across the western CONUS, a shortwave over North Dakota tracking eastward across the Upper Midwest will push the surface boundary further south into northern Iowa late Tuesday/early Wednesday, with better forcing for lift and moisture that will lead to returning chances for showers and storms. The long term discussion below expands a bit more on this storm potential.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The next short wave pattern is expected to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing another round of showers and storms to northern Iowa. A strengthening LLJ accompanied with steeping lapse rates and dew points returning to the lower 70's could lead to a few storms being on the strong to severe side. Though exact details and timing still need to be worked out in the coming days.

Looking beyond Wednesday morning,things look to quiet back down before another ridge looks to impact the Central plains of the US. It's unsure how far east the ridge will push but something to also watch in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Primarily VFR conditions prevail today, although scattered to occasionally broken cumulus clouds around 3k to 4k feet have developed at all sites today, which may lead to occasional MVFR conditions. Winds will be light and variable today through tonight. Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight will promote fog development again Tuesday morning, mainly over the eastern portions of the area. Density of fog is still uncertain, but have captured the most likely period with 6SM BR at KALO, KDSM, and KOTM.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.