textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Drying conditions for most of today, along with decreasing winds

- Snow showers will be possible late tonight and Saturday over portions of eastern and southern Iowa, then across the north/northeast Saturday afternoon. Becoming breezy.

- Dry and gradually warming into early next week, with highs reaching through the 40s by Monday and Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 414 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Lingering light rain showers cover a few isolated parts of southern and eastern Iowa early this morning as the boundary tracks eastward out of the state, while further west and north, conditions have quickly dried out given the push of drier and cooler air. Earlier last night, there was a period of snowflakes mixing in with the rain as the cooler air filled in over northwest to west central Iowa, though this was very limited in extent, which led to little accumulations but some areas of slushy conditions leading to slick travel. Though dry conditions have now returned over these areas, road temperatures in the low 30s, along with wet roads may lead to lingering slick conditions this morning, so please take it slow during the morning commute. Temperatures further east and south are expected to remain just above freezing early this morning, which should limit any freezing of the recently fallen rain. Otherwise, analysis of the surface map depicts a tightened pressure gradient across the eastern two thirds of Iowa in relation to the surface low pressure responsible for the precipitation, which as of 3am is centered over Lake Michigan. Northwest winds as a result remain quite breezy, with gusts up to 25-30 mph and isolated to 35 mph at times. As the system continues to depart eastward, winds will gradually trend lower, turning light into the afternoon but remain generally northwesterly in direction.

Clouds increase across Iowa this evening, ahead of two mid-level waves per guidance that look to meet up into the Central Plains. The first feature comes from the south as a less defined shortwave lifting northeast out of Oklahoma/Texas, and the second feature from the north as a deepening shortwave trough and associated surface low dropping southeast into Minnesota/Wisconsin. Overall trends in the guidance indicate that the weaker southerly wave will merge with the stronger northerly wave late Friday evening into Saturday morning, with a net result being further strengthening of the northern trough as the system drops into Iowa Saturday morning. There seems to be good moisture content with these features, but as the systems merge, the coverage becomes more isolated, with the favorable moisture moving over southern and eastern Iowa, along with at least some forcing that indicates the potential for light snow showers into early Saturday morning. The area of most interest would be over southeast Iowa, as sounding data indicates notable lift in a saturated DGZ, along with the profile remaining below freezing through the column that would indicate efficient snow production, though the window is relatively short of an hour or two. Overall, snow accumulations under an inch are expected but will continue to closely monitor. Even minimal accumulations would cause for slick conditions, so extra caution in travel is always a good idea in these scenarios. Notable cold air advection then overspreads Iowa from northwest to southeast on the backside of this departing low pressure, bring falling temperatures through the afternoon, with gusts expected up to 25 to 30 mph, isolated to 35 mph at times across northwest Iowa. There does remain a signal for wrap-around snow showers as the colder air moves across the region into Saturday afternoon over northern to eastern Iowa, with minimal accumulations expected as well. With breezy winds though, blowing snow potential remains, which could lead to periods of limited visibility. Gusty winds are expected to slowly decrease into the night, with temperatures expected to be quite chilly with values in the teens to low 20s, warmest southeast.

Large scale ridging across the western CONUS will allow for conditions to become dry and generally quiet to end the weekend and begin the next work week, with temperatures expected to rebound relatively quickly Sunday as highs will reach back into the 30s across the state. Temperatures warm even further Monday with values expected to reach through the 40s under partly to mostly clear skies. By Tuesday, the thermal ridge intensifies as high pressure overtakes the western CONUS, with the GFS indicating a weak trough riding the larger scale feature dropping into the upper Midwest, with a boundary suggested to drop into north/east Iowa, while the developing surface low tracks across the Great Lakes, leading to the return for possible (<30%) rain showers. Winds out of the northwest will increase Tuesday, with breezy conditions anticipated. As the system departs through Wednesday as high pressure gradually drops in from the north, additional low chances (<20%) for precipitation are indicated. There are some differences between long range solutions this far out in terms of how quickly the high pressure moves in by midweek, so expect details to gradually come into better focus in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail much of the period. Overnight, an area of stratus will move across the state with a chance for light snow in southeast Iowa. For stratus appears to remain above MVFR criteria, but is may come close as ceilings come down after 00-03z. Snow will skim southeast Iowa with impacts possible at KOTM. The main area of precipitation is expected south of the area into Missouri, but have included a prob30 group at KOTM to account for the potential. On Saturday isolated snow showers will pass across Iowa from northwest to southeast. These will be quite isolated and short lived, so have not included in TAFs at this time. Diminished ceilings, however, were lowered for the timeframe when these showers might pass through.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.