textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant weather Today into Monday, with mild temperatures and dry conditions.

- Scattered shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (10 to 20%) pass northwest to southeast through Iowa late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Severe threat is low.

- Thunderstorms likely (80 to 90%) to return early Wednesday morning and again Wednesday afternoon. Severe thunderstorms are possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

After a busy week in Iowa, we round out the weekend and kick off this week with pleasant conditions across Iowa today. Temperatures are cool and comfortable, thanks to dewpoints in the 40s and 50s across the state. Highs are only forecast to reach the mid 70s today, with current temperatures in the upper 60s. Scattered to broken diurnal cumulus riddle the skies this afternoon, indicative of the mixed out boundary layer. Also a sign of a deepening boundary layer are the breezy northwesterly winds that have developed. Gusts of 25 to 30 mph are being reported over Iowa, with some sites (including Des Moines and Estherville) gusting over 35 mph around mid-day. Fortunately, while mixing will continue through the evening, the tighter pressure gradients and winds aloft will be slowly moving off to the east as higher pressure continues to build in. This will at least prevent winds from increasing further, if not slightly decrease through the afternoon. As the high fills in, the scattered cumulus will diminish from northwest to southeast, then fully diminishing after sunset.

With clear skies and a cooler air mass overhead, temperatures will cool off nicely overnight. Lows before sunrise early Monday morning will be in the upper 40s to low 50s, before warming back into the 70s on Monday. Dry conditions continue through the daytime hours on Monday with light to occasionally breezy winds, mainly in northern Iowa.

By Monday evening and into Tuesday, an upper level wave will begin to dig into the northwest flow pattern over the central CONUS, bringing back low precipitation chances Monday night into early Tuesday. With surface high pressure directly to our south on Monday our access to low level moisture ahead of this wave will be somewhat limited, at least initially. Likewise, model soundings indicate a robust dry sub-cloud layer in place in the low levels Monday night, thanks to the dry antecedent conditions. This will initially limit precipitation chances as the wave and coincident boundary drop southeastward Monday night. However, persistent convergence along the boundary, increasing mid- and low- level moisture, and weak instability aloft (~300 to 500 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE) should allow for at least scattered light rain early Tuesday morning, especially as the front arrives in southeastern Iowa. Severe chances are low given the lower instability, but a few storms could certainly develop as well. Fortunately, this wave will be fairly progressive and any rainfall that develops will depart the state by mid-day Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Our Tuesday wave eventually pushes the surface high pressure off to the east, allowing broad surface low pressure to develop over the plains. At the same time, another upper level wave develops over Canada and drops southeastward through the northwest flow and into Iowa during the day Wednesday. This will first bring a surge of warm, moist air up into Iowa Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a 50+ kt 850 mb low level jet (LLJ) developing overnight. The combination of this increasing moisture and the LLJ will likely lead to some thunderstorm development over the region late Tuesday night and mainly into Wednesday morning for Iowa. These storms will have access to a juicy environment Wednesday morning, with models bringing 60 to 70+ dewpoints back into Iowa. Assuming this plays out as the models imply, instability and shear values will be conducive for organized convection and severe weather Wednesday.

Confidence is high in Wednesday morning storms at this time, again assuming the environment pans out the way it's suggesting (strong LLJ nosed into Iowa, high dewpoint air, plenty of shear and instability). Additional storms Wednesday afternoon are a bit less certain. Current model trends indicate storms firing along a boundary connected to the wave Wednesday afternoon, generally over southern Iowa and eastern Iowa. However, the extent of morning convection could very well muddy up the environment over Iowa for Wednesday afternoon; a scenario we've seen often lately. Therefore, while severe weather is possible again in the afternoon, the progression of the wave/boundary and the left-over mesoscale environment will play a role in how Wednesday afternoon plays out in Iowa.

The storm prediction center maintains a broad 15% severe thunderstorm risk over Iowa for Wednesday. This is comparable to a Day 1 through 3 slight risk for severe weather (level 2 of 5). Machine learning guidance is also emphasizing this Wednesday severe risk, with rather high probabilities centered over north central Missouri, putting southern Iowa just outside the highest risk area. These ML probabilities are often heavily CAPE driven and this is a high CAPE environment. Regardless, it looks likely we see a return of storms to the state on Wednesday and the details will continue to be hashed out over the coming days. Beyond Wednesday, northwest flow continues through the second half of the week, with periodic low confidence chances for rain into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail today with breezy northwesterly winds around 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts to 30 kts. Skies have become filled with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus clouds around 3500 to 6000 ft. These will likely persist through the afternoon, steadily diminishing from northwest to southeast and after sunset. Winds go light to calm overnight, with a variable wind direction.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.