textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- 20-30% chance of light rain or snow mix tonight into the first few hours of daylight Thursday. Little if any snow accumulation, but isolated slick spots could result with freezing on surfaces.

- Above normal temperatures persist into next week.

- Minimal precipitation chances late this week into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Early afternoon upper level analysis shows a low amplitude ridge upstream of Iowa with a strong shortwave off of Baja California. There is a plume of Pacific moisture being streamed out of this trough into the central US with this best reflected as high clouds that are seen in the Day Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery from GOES-East. At the surface, the center of high pressure is just southwest of Iowa and will pass over northern Missouri this afternoon. As Iowa gets into the southerly flow, low level theta-e advection will begin while at the same time a northern stream shortwave trough drops into the state tonight into Thursday. Cross sections and forecast soundings show saturation slowly working its way down from the top of the atmosphere, but the dry low levels remain fairly stout. The question becomes whether the low level forcing paired with departing kinematics will be enough to precipitate through the dry low levels. QPF fields continue to show a streak or area of QPF in the NAM, GFS, and RAP, but many other models are zero. If it does precipitate, the next question is the type. Soundings show the low level warm layer, which is warmer in the data today compared to yesterday at this time, that would allow for melting of hydrometeors. However, the dry subcloud layer results in large dewpoint depressions and opens the door for wetbulbing effects if the precipitation rate is high enough. As has been done in previous forecasts, will continue with rain/snow mix for weather type with any snow accumulation little if any. The only thing that raises concern for more impact is surface and subsurface conditions. Road temperatures, not surprisingly, are well into 50s and 60s this afternoon, but these should cool down toward freezing later tonight. 4 inch soil temperatures are near or just below freezing as well. The light precipitation falling on near freezing surface could result in slick spots, especially on elevated surfaces such as bridges. This is all dependent on precipitation falling and temperatures of surfaces being supportive of freezing on contact - not a slam dunk forecast by any means. All of the precipitation activity moves out a few hours after sunrise Thursday.

The upstream low amplitude ridge will push over Iowa to end the week and with more westerly flow into next week will result in temperatures well above normal for mid-February. At the same time late this week, the shortwave off of Baja will push over northern Mexico and then into the southern states this weekend. Ensemble means continue to spread light QPF over southern Iowa with the latest NAM and ECMWF also reaching Iowa with QPF, but with other global deterministic and AI models keeping the QPF south of the state. Fortunately if precipitation were to reach the state this weekend, it would be in the form of light rain. The next chance of precipitation will come toward the middle of next week as a lead shortwave trough ejects ahead of a more amplified trough over the West.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1029 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Mid level cloud cover will continue to expand eastward into Thursday morning as a system passes across the state. Light rain/snow potential continues to remain low (below 30%) due to dry air in the low levels, so have kept a dry forecast across the terminals but will continue to keep a close eye on conditions through the morning. However, if any precipitation where to make it to the surface, overall impacts would be minimal. Otherwise, clouds will slowly depart through the afternoon to evening hours, with VFR conditions. Winds will remain light out of the south/southeast.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.