textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder and breezy today with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Light rain and snow chances (40 to 50%) return Thursday, mainly over northern and northeastern Iowa. Minimal snowfall accumulations expected at this time.

- Mild temperatures with highs generally in the 40s to near 50 at times persist through the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Our surface cold front that will bring milder temperatures to the area today is all but through the forecast area. Winds have generally under-performed behind the front, with gusts being far more sporadic than was being indicated yesterday. Still, occasional bursts are breaking through the weak inversion, resulting in 20 to 25 mph gusts. Just to the north, a stratus deck pinched under the surface high is hurtling southward, expected to arrive in northern Iowa later this morning before dissipating from west to east through the day. This, in conjunction with a west to east stream of upper level clouds will result in a cloudy start to the day today, before eventually giving way to clearer skies later this afternoon and evening. Despite the cloudy skies early in the day, winds will become breezy again after sunrise as the weak surface inversion gives way and we tap into the mixed layer aloft. However, pressure gradients will be weakening as the surface low departs and surface high fills in, diminishing the potential for stronger gusts later today. Wind gusts generally around 20 to 25 mph are expected, with slightly higher gusts possible around mid-morning and over southern Iowa.

Surface high pressure will dictate the weather through Wednesday, keeping conditions dry. The roughly zonal 500 mb flow pattern over the central U.S. will slowly transition to a more northwesterly flow as ridging builds over the rockies. Our next precipitation chances arrive on Thursday in the form of a subtle wave dropping through the northwesterly flow pattern. This wave will shove the surface high off to the east, bringing southerly return flow and warm air advection up into the state. Modest isentropic lift and moisture will be present in the mid-levels as this occurs, with lift maximizing over northern and northeastern Iowa. However, a stout low level dry layer will be in place on the backside of the high, as well as little-to-no moisture transport to help moisten said dry layer. Therefore, the layer will need to saturate from the top-down before precipitation can begin. This will greatly limit precipitation for areas not located under the strongest lift over northern and northeastern Iowa. Even within this area, model soundings and cross sections show a fairly shallow dendritic growth zone (DGZ) and a warm layer at the surface, suggesting a less efficient, wet snow or even just a light rain. All this considered, significant snow accumulations don't look likely on Thursday, especially with guidance trending warmer. NBM probabilities for over an inch of snow in 24 hours is highest over northeastern Iowa, and yet still less than 20% chance of occurrence. Probabilities improve when looking at the chance for measurable snow (0.1") in over 24 hrs, but still only peak 40-50% in far northeastern Iowa with values approaching zero into north central Iowa where rain is more favored. High resolution models are just starting to capture the arrival of precipitation on Thursday, so a better picture of precipitation types, coverage and amounts should develop in the coming days. For now, plan for a band of light rain/snow mix passing through northern and north central Iowa on Thursday.

The forecast looks mostly dry for most of the area Friday through the weekend. NBM continues to come in too far north with the southern stream system passing to the south of the state Saturday into Sunday, likely being contaminated by the more northerly Canadian model solutions. However, the Canadian suite is an outlier compared to the rest of guidance, so have reduced precipitation chances on Thursday for much of the area. With this being 5 days out, it is still possible the track shifts northward and southern Iowa gets clipped, so haven't gone with a completely dry forecast and kept low precipitation chances over the southern half of the state. Will continue to monitor through the coming days. Otherwise, high temperatures remain seasonably warm in the 40s to near 50 at times through the entirety of this 7 day period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A large area of stratus clouds around 2k to 2.5k ft are spreading southward into northern Iowa early this morning, arriving at KMCW, KFOD, and KALO within the next few hours. Southward extent and longevity of this MVFR cloud deck remains tricky today as model guidance struggles to handle the evolution of the stratus. The current consensus is for stratus to only impact the aforementioned sites this morning before dissipating through the afternoon. However, a few more pessimistic models have stratus reaching as far south as KDSM by mid-day, with impacts lasting into the late afternoon/early evening for most sites. For now, have found a middle ground between these solutions for the TAFs, and will allow real time trends to dictate any further expansion southward and later in time.

In addition to clouds, expectation is for northerly winds to pick up again after sunrise today, with sustained winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts possible, especially at sites farther east in the area.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.