textproduct: Des Moines

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow possible this afternoon to evening over northern into eastern Iowa and breezy.

- Snow showers or squalls possible Friday as another cold front passes through, along with gusty conditions.

- Cooler into the weekend, with frigid nights expected through early next week before gradually warming.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Quiet conditions prevail early this morning, with chilly conditions across Iowa given remaining light northwest winds as the region sits under the northern fringe of the surface high pressure centered into the Southern Plains. Temperatures currently in the teens across Iowa are expected to drop a bit further into the single digits north and in the mid teens just before sunrise. As the surface high pressure descends further south/east this morning, winds will shift southwesterly across Iowa around and just after sunrise, allowing for warming conditions through the rest of the morning and into the afternoon, with values in the upper 20s east and in the upper 30s over western Iowa. Winds will be breezy with gusts generally expected up to 20-25 mph, and isolated to 30 mph in the north. The warm air advection will be ahead of surface low pressure system tracking east across the far Upper Midwest through today, with a frontal boundary slated to reach far north/west Iowa by late morning/early afternoon. A look at CAM guidance generally indicates light snow developing just ahead of this front, starting out over northern Iowa and extending further south and east through the afternoon, reaching eastern Iowa near the late afternoon to early evening. A look at soundings for today indicate good moisture presence in the mid-levels, though at the lowest 1km near the surface holds plenty of dry air for much of the state, especially across western Iowa into this afternoon, so the confidence on seeing much in the way of snow reaching the ground looks low. At a minimum, flurries have been added in these areas of lowest confidence should any flakes make it to the surface, though better chances are for these areas to remain dry. Soundings do indicate a few hour window over northern Iowa by mid-afternoon for full saturation and similar conditions further east by late afternoon-evening, along with better forcing for lift that would hold the highest potential for light snow showers. Any snow accumulations look to remain minimal today, though may lead to slick conditions where any light accumulations do occur. Winds shift northwesterly behind the initial front through the evening from west to east Iowa, with temperatures gradually decreasing. Can't rule out an isolated shower or two behind the boundary as some models try to simulate, but most areas should dry out into early Friday.

As the aforementioned surface low drops into the Great Lakes into Friday morning, will see temperatures gradually decrease through the day from north to south, leading to the warmest temperatures in the morning. A stronger push of northwest flow behind the front is expected to increase winds after sunrise and spread across Iowa through the afternoon to evening, leading to blustery conditions. Soundings across Iowa indicate average mixed layer gusts across Iowa around 25-30 knots, along with top of the layer values around 35-40 knots, which could mix down to the surface at times given the CAA regime. Therefore have increased winds for Friday across central Iowa, with expected gusts up to 30-40 mph, highest over the north. Besides the increasing winds and falling temperatures from the strong cold front will be additional snow chances, which overall hold an increasing potential for snow squalls. Guidance indicates streaks of relatively strong frontogenesis in relation to the front arriving into northern Iowa after sunrise and tracking south/east across the state through the day, paired with moisture through the mid-levels. There still remains uncertainty on the degree in moisture presence in the low levels, as model soundings generally indicate much of the day remaining fairly dry below 1km. There are however a few suggested brief periods of better saturation through the column, which looks to occur in tandem with the increasing lift and steepening lapse rates (7 to 7.5+ C/km at times), with conditions becoming quite unstable. In terms of specific area of coverage, and when, are still more uncertain given the convective nature of these showers, with CAMS indicating northwest to southeast oriented streaks of snow showers increasing in coverage into central Iowa by late morning through the afternoon. Wherever the favorable ingredients end up aligning will lead to much higher chances for rapidly changing conditions caused by sudden bursts of snowfall, along with breezy winds leading to low visibilities and dangerous travel conditions. Please continue to monitor the forecast and have a plan to react quickly to rapidly changing weather conditions Friday if traveling, or consider altering plans if necessary.

Lingering snow showers may remain into early Saturday, though a drying trend is expected through the day as surface high pressure drops south/east into the region. Overnight lows will be frigid in the single digits, along with wind chills below zero across Iowa, coldest north in the -10 to -20 below zero range. Temperatures won't recover much at all for the day given remaining northwest flow and stratus, with values in the single digits to teens. High pressure quickly departs Sunday, which will lead to an increase in southwest flow into Iowa that will ultimately bring some warmth back into the state to end the weekend, as highs are expected in the 20s to low 30s. There remains the indication of another trough dropping into the upper Midwest Sunday, with its surface low tracking southeast across Ontario, but any precipitation chances look to remain north of Iowa into Wisconsin and Minnesota. Northwesterly return flow will otherwise remain over the region through the early-mid week period, with additional waves looking to skirt near Iowa but any precipitation potential is very low (<10%) at this time. After another shot of cooler air into Monday, temperatures warm back into the 20s to low 30s for highs into midweek.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions remain across the terminals this morning, with upper level clouds passing through before mid-level clouds arrive this afternoon as a boundary passes across Iowa. Light snow is possible over the eastern terminals this afternoon to early evening, with very low chances at KDSM and KFOD due to dry air, therefore have left out. Any snow could lead to brief periods of MVFR conditions. Winds will increase through this morning to afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. A wind shift will occur gradually this evening, with northwest flow common into Friday that will become blustery. Additional snow chances return near the end of the period, with low confidence to include at this time but will be assessed through the upcoming forecast packages today.

DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.