textproduct: Duluth

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Off and on rain chances this afternoon and evening through Tuesday. The lion's share of the moisture will be focused across NW WI.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the forecast period

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Current Setup:

A deep upper level trough extends down into the four corners this afternoon with plumes of both the Gulf of Mexico and California moisture advecting north. Radar reveals the two main areas of precipitation. The first is through the Corn Belt and into the North Woods the other is over the Red River Valley.

Unfortunately, the Northland falls in between these two sectors leaving our region with the "scraps" of precipitation. Not quite the feast we need to pull us out of the severe drought. The latest morning update has had to trim PoPs significantly, while the moisture is certainly available, the lack of forcing and strong subsidence in the lower levels has lead to less falling precipitation.

This afternoon/evening:

This afternoon the low level jet increases and shifts north which will bring the ongoing rain to our southeast into portions of NW WI. Winds across Lake Superior will also turn more easterly helping to generate some terrain induced lift along the higher elevations of the North Shore for additional rain. Elsewhere across the Northland some scattered to isolated showers will be possible through the evening as several impulses aloft rotate through. Additionally, warm air advection overnight combined with the saturated low levels could lead to some areas of dense fog.

Monday:

The inverted trough over the Northern Plains that was helping to form the second area precipitation today will shift east through the night. A surface low is set to develop as it crosses the Red River Valley increasing low level lift for some additional showers entering from the west. The system will migrate east through Monday. Within the warm sector ahead of the front MUCAPE builds to around 100 J/kg which may lead to a few rumbles of thunder. While there is plenty of bulk shear to work with the rather limited instability will prevent rapid storm growth, so strong to severe storms are not expected.

Tuesday:

The front exits to the east Monday evening. But rain chances quickly return on Tuesday as another low moves across eastern IA with its deformation zone setting up across NW WI for much of Tuesday. There has been some variance in how far north this system could push with the latest GFS wanting to nudge it closer to the Northland. This has helped to spread 20-30% PoPs into portions of northern MN.

Precipitation Totals:

Between today and the end of Tuesday there have been some fine tuning needed for the QPF. The overall trend has been lesser amounts for most of northern MN (0.25" or less). Forecasted amounts increase as you move southeast towards WI. For NW WI totals range from 0.50-1.00" The North Shore should also see a slight boost to around 0.50"

Wednesday-Weekend:

Quieter weather returns on Wednesday. While we maintain southwest flow aloft we will have surface high pressure over the region. The subsidence will diminish precipitation chances. Temperatures will remain 10F above normal with highs in the low 50s carrying us into the weekend. Rain chances return on the weekend as a low moves out of the central Rockies and towards the Upper Midwest.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

With plenty of moisture in place, ceilings are falling and are expected to continue in that trend this evening. Areas of dense fog are expected to develop as well, especially at DLH with upslope southeasterly flow. With this update, dropped visibilities significantly at all terminals. Regardless of visibility, IFR ceilings are expected to develop everywhere. Another round of scattered showers are expected around mid-day Monday, then a cold front Monday afternoon will cause winds to become westerly, and with that, ceilings and visibility are expected to gradually improve, but likely still remaining at least MVFR.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 303 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Enhanced easterly winds across Lake Superior have led to Small Craft Advisories across the North Shore and portions of the South Shore. Winds are expected to taper off tonight with waves heights decreasing later tomorrow morning. A cold front moving through Monday will see winds switch to out of the Northwest.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Monday for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ147- 148-150.


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