textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather conditions in north- central Minnesota this afternoon into early evening due to low relative humidity.

- Cooler weather over the weekend with a chance for light rain Saturday evening into early Sunday morning.

- A larger system is likely to bring widespread rain, some thunderstorms, and perhaps a few flurries early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rest of Today:

Plenty of clear skies for most of the area this afternoon as high pressure sits over the region, with the exception being some cloud cover development in north-central Minnesota starting this afternoon/evening in association with shortwave energy aloft on the periphery of a closed low churning over southern Saskatchewan. Temperatures top out in the 50s for most, but some low 60s may be found in the I-35 corridor into inland NW WI. westerly to northwesterly wind gusts are still gusting to 15-20 mph at times, but will weaken later this afternoon/evening and become light tonight. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected the remainder of this afternoon through early evening for north-central Minnesota due to relative humidity values falling to 20-30 percent.

Tonight - This Weekend:

Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight into Saturday as weak shortwave energy aloft continues. A weak cool front in conjunction with more weak shortwave energy will bring light rain potential for Saturday evening into early Sunday morning (20-40% chance) to NE MN and NW WI. There will likely be some returns on radar aloft during the day on Saturday, but it will be difficult for this precipitation to reach the ground before evaporating due to drier air in the lowest 4000-6000 feet of the atmosphere. The Brainerd Lakes would be the area with the best potential for light rain to reach the ground Saturday afternoon. Instability is low to nil with this precipitation, so only a few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts should be on the lighter side, generally 0.1-0.25" or less, with highest amounts from the Brainerd Lakes into the MN Arrowhead.

Expect mild temperatures for most locations away from Lake Superior this weekend, with highs in the 50s to low 60s Saturday and upper 50s to upper 60s Sunday, warmest in northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures near Lake Superior should be cooler in the upper 40s to low/mid-50s. East winds on Sunday should also bring in a lake breeze.

We will need to watch far northern/north-central MN for possible near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon as afternoon relative humidity values dip into the 25-30% range, particularly for areas that did not see much for rainfall with this recent round of rain/storms.

Late Sunday Night - Tuesday:

Lee cyclogenesis is expected with a developing Colorado Low late Sunday that will then eject northeast and strengthen, tracking northeast through the Minnesota/Wisconsin late Monday through Monday night before exiting into Ontario by Tuesday PM. This system will bring a surge of moisture with origins in the western Gulf and modified moisture from Baja California. Latest NAEFS PWAT percentiles reach the 90th percentile (~0.75-1" of PWATs) for Monday through Monday night for much of the Northland. Broad support for parcel ascent with good synoptic forcing should aid in development of widespread rain with some thunderstorm potential with this system as it moves through the region starting Sunday night, peaking in coverage on Monday PM into Monday night, and ending daytime Tuesday as the low pressure system exits. There is still some uncertainty in the ensemble model members' low pressure tracks Monday into Monday night, with the EPS members clustered more northwest into a southern MN/western IA to NE MN/NW WI track while the GEFS members are clustered as a whole about 50-100 miles farther east/southeast. Our current forecast currently splits the difference between the two global ensemble systems. At the moment, the warm sector of this low pressure is favored to remain southeast of the Northland, but if the system takes a more northwesterly track then some low-end strong to severe thunderstorm potential could make a nudge north into NW WI for Monday afternoon and evening. There is also a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for all of the Northland on Monday into Monday night given the broad, widespread rainfall signal. Low pressure track an mesoscale features will influence where the heaviest rainfall and possibly minor flooding potential sets up, and these features will come into clearer focus as this system approaches.

Mid - Late Next Week:

We transition into a general northwest flow pattern aloft mid to late next week across the region with periodic, low confidence timing and placement of shortwave energy and associated lighter precipitation keeps chances in the forecast lower (20% or less). This timeframe will also be on the slightly cooler side relative to earlier in the week, with daily highs in the upper 40s to 50s and lows around or just below freezing. Depending on the timing of any precipitation chances mid to late week, a few snow flurries could mix in with rain at times.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Clouds will increase and lower through the day Saturday, but are not expected to lead to restrictions. Light showers will be possible in the afternoon, but there will be a lot of dry air at the surface to overcome. Winds will be light and variable overnight then southerly under 10 knots for Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Breezy northerly winds to 20 to 25 kt and waves of 2-5 ft winds are expected through mid afternoon but drop off this evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage until 4 PM CDT.

There is a 20-40% chance for wind gusts up to 20-25 kt on Sunday afternoon and evening at the head of Lake Superior due to east- northeast winds funneling into the southwest Arm.

The next major marine concerns are expected Monday and Tuesday when a broad low pressure system moves through the region and brings gusty winds and elevated waves. Widespread hazardous conditions for small vessels are likely. There is also a 10-40% chance for gale-force northwest wind gusts on Tuesday morning to afternoon, highest along the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon and early evening for north-central Minnesota as relative humidity bottoms out in the 20 to 30 percent range, despite east to northeast winds generally gusting to 15 mph or less. RH is forecast to recover above 60% tonight in north-central MN and 70-80%+ elsewhere.

On Saturday, there may be some pockets of low RH down to around 25% for parts of northeast Minnesota, mainly in counties bordering the international border. Clouds will be on the increase during the day, particularly during the afternoon for these northern areas. Southerly winds/gusts will be light throughout the day at 10 mph or less. Expect a chance for light rain to start mainly Saturday evening and night and lingering into early Sunday morning, which may bring a few hundredths up to one-quarter inch of rain. Can't rule out some light rain reaching the ground in the Brainerd Lakes as early midday/afternoon on Saturday, but low-level dry air may keep it from reaching the ground that early. A mix of clouds and sun and slightly higher dewpoints on Sunday should keep min RH largely above 30%, especially for areas near Lake Superior as easterly winds bring in a lake breeze.

A broad low pressure system will bring more widespread soaking rain chances to the region for Sunday night through early Tuesday. Still some uncertainties in the exact track of the system, so areas of highest rainfall are difficult to pinpoint at the moment. Expect some thunderstorms along with the rain Monday into Monday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.