textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for snow squalls tomorrow afternoon across the Minnesota Arrowhead, Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin areas.

- Freeze-thaw cycle continues next week with periodic low chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The remnants of a weak frontal boundary were draped across northern Wisconsin into central Minnesota this afternoon. Light radar returns were evident in the vicinity of this boundary, but surface observations did not show much reaching the ground. High pressure was building across the Canadian Prairies as the jet stream was dropping southward across the Upper Midwest.

For tonight into Friday morning, a shortwave trough will dive out of Canada into the region ahead of the area of high pressure. Low level lapse rates of 8-10C/km are forecast to move through in association with this shortwave. Models are generating low levels of MUCAPE as well with peak values of 60-70 J/kg across the Arrowhead and into Iron County during the afternoon. CAMs are now starting to hint at the presence of HCRs (horizontal convective rolls) during the afternoon hours. Snow showers are expected and with these ingredients in place, snow squalls will be possible across much of the Northland during the afternoon with the best chances across the Arrowhead into the Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin. The snow squall parameter is also lighting up during the mid to late morning hours from the Twin Ports into northwest Wisconsin, so this threat may be in place through much of the day. Highs Friday will be in the middle 20s to middle 30s with breezy northwest winds.

High pressure will slide south of the region Friday night into Saturday when a warm front sets up in the area. Moisture will be extremely limited so have kept a dry forecast for now. Breezy southwest winds and afternoon RH values falling below 30% may lead to increased fire weather conditions in the Brainerd Lakes area. The highest winds are in the far southern reaches of Cass and Crow Wing counties, leading to lower confidence in any fire weather headlines with this update. Temperatures will also warm through the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s Saturday with 50s and some lower 60s away from Lake Superior Sunday.

Temperatures will slowly cool each day next week as periodic chances of precipitation move through the Upper Midwest. Confidence on when these waves will move through is low, but there is a chance for some mix and rumbles of thunder in southern areas on Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is high on daytime temperatures warming above freezing and then falling below freezing overnight each day. With this increased low level moisture from snow melt, fog and low stratus may be a concern during the mornings.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 647 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Trending to VFR conditions for tonight, then expect some increasing clouds and snow shower chances mainly for INL but possibly briefly HIB around 12Z Friday morning. Temporary MVFR visibilities and ceilings are possible. A brief break from snow showers late morning to early afternoon is possible, then breezy northwest winds, some lingering moisture, and a passing upper- level trough may promote more scattered snow shower development for the afternoon. There is a 10% chance for snow squalls from INL to HYR that could briefly reduce visibility to around a quarter mile. Otherwise, expect intermittent snow showers with brief MVFR visibility and ceiling restrictions (20-30% chance).

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Update to issue Small Craft Advisories from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage and for the Outer Apostle Islands Friday afternoon and evening. No other changes from the previous discussion.

Previous Discussion: Northerly winds of 5 to 15 knots tonight will become northwesterly Friday at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots. A period of conditions hazardous to small craft will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours along the North Shore and outer Apostle Islands. Southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots will then be in place for Saturday. The next chance for hazardous conditions will arrive on Monday with strong easterly winds expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140- 141-150.