textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong lake breeze today will bring much cooler temperatures near Lake Superior while hot conditions persist inland.

- There is a high risk of rip currents at the beaches of the Twin Ports today.

- Hot and dry conditions will lead to periods of near-critical fire weather concerns today through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Synopsis:

A complex split-flow pattern over the North American continent was evident on GOES-East water vapor imagery early this morning. A cutoff low was found over the CA/NV border and a negatively tilted ridge from the Gulf Coast to the northern Plains and a nearly meridional positively tilted longwave trough over the eastern half of Canada. The ridge will continue to build over the Plains during the remainder of the week while split flow persists over the continent. Of note for today is an area of channelized vorticity near the base of the Canadian trough. That feature will sag southward across the Northland today while the trough axis rotates toward New England. At the surface, an area of surface high pressure over northern Manitoba and far northern Ontario will sag slowly southward over the next several days while surface low pressure over the northern Rockies slowly weakens.

Today and Thursday:

The vort max and associated shortwave over northwest Ontario early this morning will pivot southeastward over the Northland today. As of 08Z a narrow band of scattered showers was found over northern St. Louis, northern Lake, and western Cook counties just ahead of the shortwave. Several lightning strikes were observed with this cluster back around midnight. With generally weak forcing aside from the modest height falls associated with the shortwave trough, I expect the area of showers to persist through late morning and gradually sag southeastward with time.

The surface pressure gradient over the Northland will tighten today as the surface high pressure sags south in contrast with the low pressure over the northern Rockies. Strong northeast winds will develop over western Lake Superior with building waves near the Twin Ports creating a high risk of rip currents. A prominent lake breeze is forecast to push well inland and keep temperatures a little cooler than the past three days. Areas in the Brainerd Lakes and along MN/WI-70 into northwest Wisconsin should be the warmest today as the lake breeze will arrive well after peak heating. Temperatures top out in the low to middle 60s along the immediate shoreline to the low to upper 80s farther inland. Deep mixing ahead of the lake breeze will allow afternoon RH values to drop into the 20-30% range. RH values below 25% from around Leech Lake northeast into northern St. Louis County will create near-critical fire weather conditions. Wind gusts this afternoon over the Northland will increase to 10 to 20 mph. A few spots may see gusts up to 25 mph.

As the shortwave trough continues to propagate southeastward this afternoon, there is a slight chance (10-20%) of isolated showers and storms over northwest Wisconsin.

Thursday will see similar conditions as the surface high pressure sags farther south over Lake Superior and into Wisconsin. With the center of the high pressure closer to the region, winds should lighter. Northeast winds over western Lake Superior should create another lake breeze which will push well inland by late afternoon. The northeast winds and building waves will create a moderate to high risk of rip currents near the Twin Ports.

Friday through next Wednesday:

The weather pattern shifts again on Friday as the surface high pressure system weakens and drifts southward resulting in southerly return flow. Dry conditions will persist with near- critical fire weather conditions due to low RH values in the afternoon. Record to near-record high temperatures are forecast in the low 80s to low 90s.

Another area of surface high pressure will drift southward across Ontario and into the Great Lakes over the weekend. A tighter pressure gradient on Saturday will bring a risk of rip currents and another prominent lake breeze. Diurnally driven instability may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms to develop along/inland from the lake breeze Saturday afternoon/evening.

Temperatures continue the cooler though still near to above normal trend heading into next week. The somewhat stagnant upper-level pattern may begin to give way as the upper-level ridge narrows and amplifies. Several jet streaks are forecast to ride over the ridge and into the trough over eastern Canada and the northeast US early next week. There will be daily chances of isolated diurnal showers and storms. Widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions today. Northeast winds off Lake Superior will lead to gusty winds at DLH. There is a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm at BRD and HYR this afternoon. As of this morning, the chance of impacts is about 10% at both sites.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure sagging southeast from northern Manitoba and far northern Ontario into the Midwest by Friday. Surface pressure gradient will tighten across Lake Superior today causing northeast winds to strengthen. The strongest winds will be in the southwest arm of Lake Superior and near and south of Madeline Island. Look for sustained winds of around 5-8 knots above Taconite Harbor with 12-18 knots near the Twin Ports and Oak Point. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots are forecast and waves will build to 2 to 5 feet where winds are strongest. Winds relax overnight tonight and strengthen again on Thursday, though are not expected to be as strong as today. Friday appears somewhat relaxed also before strong northeast winds return Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

High pressure sagging southeast from northern Manitoba and far northern Ontario will provide mostly sunny skies today. A prominent lake breeze is forecast from Lake Superior into northwest Wisconsin and central Minnesota by late this afternoon. Temperatures trend cooler though minimum RH values of 20-30% are forecast for most of the Northland. Winds will generally be from the east or northeast and will increase to 5 to 15 mph this afternoon with a gusts of 15 to 20 mph. A few gusts as high as 25 mph are possible near the Twin Ports and along the south shore of Lake Superior. Highs today will in the 60s and 70s near Lake Superior and along the Canadian border with low to upper 80s farther inland. Similar conditions are forecast Thursday though winds will turn southeasterly. Friday will see a return to summer-like heat with widespread min RH values below 25% and record to near-record high temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s. Nearby surface high pressure should yield weaker winds than today and Thursday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 356 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Hot, summer-like temperatures return Friday with temperatures nearing daily record highs at several climate sites. As of this morning Hibbing is forecast to break their record by several degrees. Below are the sites where forecast high temperatures are within 3 degrees of their record values.

Friday, May 29: Forecast Record -------- ------ Duluth: 85 ........ 87 in 1986 Hibbing: 91 ........ 88 in 1999 and 2006 I. Falls: 91 ........ 92 in 1919 Brainerd: 91 ........ 94 in 2018

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-144-145-148-150.