textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, with the best chance for the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead.

- Fairly dry and sunny weekend on tap with lower dewpoints, fairly average temperatures, and a northwest breeze. Sunday morning could be chilly with morning lows in the 40s.

- Next chance of precipitation early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A low pressure system to our north continues to influence our weather today. A second cold front is expected to drop down into the Northland from western Ontario this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. While there is a little bubble of instability ahead and along with this front, shear is somewhat limited around 20-30knots. No severe storms are expected, but a couple stronger storms capable of producing up to penny size hail are possible, especially for the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. Any precipitation activity should come to an end through the evening and overnight.

Into the weekend, an upper level trough is expected to morph into an elongated cut off upper level low over the eastern Great Lakes and eastern Ontario. This will bring northwesterly flow and drier air back into our region. Temperatures should largely be around normal during the day. Lower dewpoints in the 40s and clearing skies could lead to a chilly night Saturday into Sunday morning with overnight lows in the 40s possible - a couple overachieving localized cold spots might see some high 30s again.

Global models continue to point towards another upper level trough with a preceding shortwave wandering across the Canadian Plains and into our neck of the woods early next week. This could bring scattered rain chances back to the Northland Monday night into Wednesday. Depending on how these chances play out, areas of the Northland will likely continue to deal with the ongoing drought rigmarole as the best rainfall amounts could be hit or miss. Temperatures stay around average through the extended forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions should become predominant this afternoon and continue through the TAF period. There is a slight chance for some rain showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, most likely for INL and HIB. A little fog could impact DLH early Saturday morning. Gusty northwesterly winds should largely calm down overnight, picking back up again through the morning Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Light westerly winds are expected today and Saturday, with some afternoon gusts of 10-15knots possible. Sunday, expect north to northeasterly winds overnight, becoming an onshore lake breeze in the afternoon. There could be some scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening, but no severe weather is expected. Patchy dense fog is possible overnight tonight into Saturday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

A secondary cold front is expected to push through the area this afternoon and evening. This could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms as it arrives, most likely for northern MN and the Borderlands. No severe weather is expected, but a couple stronger storms are possible. As that front passes, northwesterly flow and drier air return. Expect afternoon RH on Saturday and Sunday to fall into the 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible, driest on Sunday. Some gustier post-frontal northwest winds are possible on Saturday with afternoon sustained winds of 8-12mph and gusts of 15-20mph. Winds should be fairly light on Sunday. Moisture should return into Monday/Tuesday as our next chance of rain arrives early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.