textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues this afternoon and tomorrow with highs in the 90s and low 100s.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist this afternoon and again tomorrow across northern areas with afternoon RH values of 25% or less and breezy winds.

- Minimal precipitation chances expected through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A large dome of high pressure was located from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic. Southerly flow on the west side of the high was pumping warm air northward into the Upper Midwest along with low level moisture. This was resulting in well above normal temperatures across the Northland along with very humid conditions. Highs this afternoon will reach into the 90s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Heat indicies will rise into the mid 90s to low 100s. Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect across almost all of the Northland this afternoon. Some areas along the North Shore may trend a bit cooler as the result of upwelling yesterday bringing much colder water to the surface.

Dangerous fire weather conditions are also in place across the region this afternoon, especially north of the Iron Range. Dewpoints in the 50s will lead to RH values bottoming out in the 25 to 30% range with pockets of sub-25% values. Winds will be quite gusty out of the southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 to 35 mph, highest north of the Iron Range. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for areas along and north of the Iron Range due to these conditions.

Temperatures remain quite warm tonight with lows in the upper 60s to upper 70s before warming again Tuesday into the 90s. With dewpoints again in the 60s over much of the Northland, heat indicies will be in the upper 90s to mid-100s south of the Iron Range where the Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. Areas along and to the north of the Iron Range may need a Heat Advisory. A dry "cold" front will push from north to south Tuesday into Tuesday night. Cold is in quotes as there isn't much in terms of cooler temperatures behind the front. It will bring drier air into the region however. This drier air will lead to critical fire weather conditions across northern areas as afternoon RH values fall into the 20-30% range with northwesterly winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph. Another Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas for Tuesday. There is a very low chance (<10%) of an isolated shower or thunderstorm to develop ahead of the front, but weak forcing and dry air in the low levels limit this potential. There is the potential for dry lightning, which could further exacerbate fire weather concerns.

Mainly dry conditions will prevail for Wednesday and Thursday aside from very low chances for an isolated shower or thunderstorm in northern areas under northwest flow aloft. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 80s to mid 90s, but with much less humidity than the last few days. Areas near Lake Superior will likely trend cooler, especially Thursday, as a lake breeze is expected to push inland.

Late Thursday into Friday will see a shortwave move through the upper level flow through the region. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of the Northland. Given the timing of this system, severe storms are not currently expected with models keeping more robust instability away from possible precipitation areas. Low chances for precipitation will linger into the weekend as northwest flow remains in place. Temperatures will trend near normal for the weekend in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty southwesterly winds this afternoon will subside overnight. A dry front will start to work from north to south Tuesday morning with winds turning northerly to northwesterly behind it. Front will likely move through INL shortly after daybreak, but may not reach HIB until after 18z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Southwesterly winds will slowly diminish for tonight into tomorrow morning. Gusts to 20 to 25 knots will linger tonight from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostles. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Winds will remain out of the southwest on Tuesday at 5 to 15 knots before turning northwesterly during the late afternoon and evening as a front moves through. Wednesday will see light onshore winds at 10 knots or less. Minimal precipitation chances are expected over the next 48 hours.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Critical fire weather conditions continue for portions of the area this afternoon, with very hot temperatures, minimum relative humidity of 20-40%, and a strong southwest wind. The worst conditions are expected in north-central and northeast Minnesota where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Gusts of 15-30mph are expected this afternoon, and its possible that some areas along the Canadian Border could see occasional localized gusts up to 35mph. In that same area, we could see afternoon temperatures exceed 100F and relative humidity drop to near 20%. A mostly dry cold front is expected Tuesday, which will minimally reduce some of the very hot temperatures and lead to a wind switch from southwest to northwest through the day. That wind switch is expected to translate from north to south Tuesday, with some gusts of 15-20 mph possible along the front. Again, afternoon relative humidity of 20-40% possible Tuesday. Another Red Flag Warning is in effect for far northern portions of the area Tuesday.

At this time, little to no precipitation is expected with that cold front Tuesday. There is a small (<10%) chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms, which may lead to some small pockets of potential dry lightning. The next best chance of any precipitation is not until the end of this week, and exact timing, placement, and rainfall amounts are still uncertain.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 255 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Daily high temperatures and daily record warm low temperatures are forecast over the next few days at select Climate sites in the Northland. The current temperature record and year it was observed are in the first column, with the current forecast temperature in the second column.

Site Identifiers and Names KDLH: Duluth Area (measured at Duluth Int'l Airport) KINL: International Falls area (measured at Int'l Falls Airport) KHIB: Hibbing area (measured at Range Regional Airport) KBRD: Brainerd area (measured at Brainerd Regional Airport) KASX: Ashland area (measured at JFK Memorial Airport)

Record High Temperatures:

July 13 Forecast KINL: 93/1983 99 KHIB: 92/1983 95

July 14: KDLH: 98/1901 96 KBRD: 98/1901 96 KHIB: 95/1983 95 KASX: 94/1980 99

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 14: Forecast KINL: 70/1983 70 KBRD: 72/1901 70 KHIB: 69/1995 70

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-018>021-026. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-037. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ010>012. Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ025-033>038. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ001>004- 006>008. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ009. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>143. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-150. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>143-146-147. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144- 145.