textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake-effect snow lingers for the snow belt today, dissipating this evening.

- Dry, warming conditions are expected for the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s over the weekend and mid 40s to 50s next week.

- A larger low pressure system will bring increasing precipitation chances late next week, with rain being the favored precipitation type given well-above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Current conditions/Tonight:

Surface high pressure has set up residency over the Northland and will be a mainstay through the weekend and early next week. Satellite shows the morning stratus burning off across northern MN with ongoing lake effect snow showers continuing across the UP and advecting west. Our 850 mb temps still remain around -8C which leads to lake induced instability of around 200 J/kg. Current surface dewpoint depressions over the South Shore are around 8-10F which is too dry for precipitation. But upstream where some greenish hues can be depicted in the day cloud phase RGB show dewpoint depressions are on the order of 1-3F with ongoing snow. This activity should cross over into Iron and Ashland late this afternoon before dry synoptic air and a wind shift shuts the process down this evening. Minimal accumulation expected.

Weekend - Mid Week:

Quiet weather period as upper level ridge sets up over the Upper Midwest through an extended period. Temperatures will gradually be on the upwards trend with highs ascending into the 50s by Wednesday. For context, normal highs for this time of the year are in the upper 30s. Current NBM guidance even has some record breaking warm lows for Thursday with values in the low 40s.

End of next work week:

Weather pattern shift does not look to arrive until late Wednesday into Thursday as troughing in the west finally pushes the upper level ridge out of the region. Forecast trends continue to slow the advancement of these synoptic features as well as push the associated surface low farther north. As such, NBM PoPs continue to be delayed with 30% chances returning late Wednesday into Thursday. Given the strong dry air in place and the inconsistency of model to model runs confidence remains low in the timing and placement of rain returning to the Northland.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Surface high pressure has taken up residency over the Northland with light and variable winds expected through the period. Satellite shows pockets of MVFR status that is beginning to erode over northern MN. Cold air flowing over Lake Superior will likely keep the status going a little longer for NW WI. A slight wind shift over Lake Superior tonight could bring some lower clouds over DLH but guidance would suggest there is a 40% chance for MVFR ceilings to return before departing after sunrise.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Surface high pressure has taken up residency over the Upper Midwest. Light winds are expected to persist over Lake Superior for an extended period. Enhanced winds that could prove troublesome for some vessels aren't expected to return until Sunday night. Very light lake effect snow showers will continue to impact Saxon Harbor before clearing out later this evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

No fire weather concerns. Extended quiet weather through the weekend and much of next week as high pressure and upper level ridging reign over the region. Above normal temperatures are expected but Min RHs will remain in the 50s and 60s. Gusty winds are not anticipated until Monday. Rain chances don't return until late next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.