textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and quiet weather through Tuesday.

- Light rain and lake-effect snow chances return Tuesday night through Thursday. A few inches of snow will likely fall for parts of the South Shore Wednesday night.

- Cooler weather to end the week, then warming up over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The sun is out this afternoon for most places except the tip of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin who are still dealing with remnant cloud cover from the warm air advection ahead of a passing cold front. A drier air mass will follow tonight into Tuesday with high pressure passing by to our south. Expect quiet weather and another mild day on Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

A quick clipper with a mesoscale rain band is still looking likely to pass through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Not expecting much for impacts from this as temperatures should be warm enough to keep this all rain. There is a possibility that the exact track of the rain could change a little north or south, but right now it's roughly targeting areas along the US-2 corridor.

Following this rain band, another cold front will pass through, and this one will pack a bit more of a punch. This will bring some 850 hPa temperatures down to around -10C, and with the lake still 15-20C warmer than that, lake-effect snow is expected along the South Shore Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will be north to north-northeasterly, so in addition to the usual Iron County suspects, parts of Ashland and eastern Bayfield counties might be seeing some snow accumulations as well. SLRs probably won't be too high with this, which may negate accumulations some, but lake-effect can often overachieve. The most likely period for accumulating snow will be Wednesday evening through Thursday morning when temperatures will fall below freezing. GFS/ECMWF ensembles are variable in QPF amounts, but many around 0.2-0.3". Depending on what SLRs end up being, at minimum we could see 1-2" of snow, but can't rule out some locally higher amounts around 3". Most likely locations will be in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties. Once temperatures rise above freezing later Thursday morning, lingering light snow or rain showers will be possible, but it should start to melt on contact at that point. Lingering light snow is possible Thursday night, mainly for Iron county, and a passing trough aloft could enhance that slightly. Drier air will also be moving in with flow becoming a bit closer to north- northwesterly, so accumulations should be very minimal.

Elsewhere, look for dry/quiet weather with highs in the 30s Thursday/Friday. As we go into the weekend, ridging over the western CONUS will move east with southerly flow developing. As of now, conditions are looking quiet with dry weather expected. Temperatures will start warming up with highs in the 40s by Sunday. We may remain in a pretty quiet dry weather pattern until sometime next week after the upper ridge passes by and we get into a pattern more favorable for Colorado lows on the back side.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A cold front is passing through this afternoon. Clouds aloft will continue moving to the east with clearing skies expected into tonight. Breezy west winds will continue through the afternoon, then decrease and become light tonight and into Tuesday. High pressure will pass by to the south on Tuesday, keeping the weather quiet and sunny with light west winds through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 142 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Winds are expected to become more breezy out of the northwest tonight following the passage of a cold front today. Some downsloping winds along the North Shore are likely to hit around 20-30 kt (~90% chance, per REFS). A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through tonight. Winds will decrease on Tuesday, becoming southwesterly by afternoon. Winds will remain relatively light, gradually switching to northwest and then north into Wednesday. Light rain is possible Tuesday night, then lake-effect rain and snow going into Thursday. Winds become a bit more breezy with some gusts around or slightly over 20 kt Wednesday night from the north to northeast. Some hazardous conditions for small craft may be possible, especially around the Outer Apostle Islands.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A cold front is passing through today with high pressure expected to pass by to our south through Tuesday. Expect dry weather, but with RH not expected to fall below 45% on Tuesday, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. A quick burst of rain is expected for some places Tuesday night into early Wednesday, perhaps bringing up to a tenth of an inch of rain roughly along US-2 corridor. Lake-effect rain and snow is expected along the South Shore Wednesday night into Thursday. A few inches of snow and a few tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent precipitation are possible. Lingering light lake- effect snow showers are possible mainly for Iron County Thursday night. Elsewhere, it will be dry, but with RH around or greater than 50%. A similar story is expected this weekend with winds becoming more southerly and temperatures warming up, but RH staying around 50% or greater.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140>143.