textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers continue through this evening, with a low chance of a non-severe thunderstorm from Brainerd to the I-35 corridor this afternoon.

- Subfreezing temperatures are expected Sunday night into Monday morning for most of north central MN, the Arrowhead, and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Frost advisories might be needed elsewhere.

- Mostly dry conditions through upcoming the work week, with above normal temperatures from Tuesday on.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

One wave of showers moved through this morning and is currently pushing out of the Arrowhead. Meanwhile, the second wave of showers, and a few thunderstorms, has developed from near Brainerd eastward across the I-35 corridor, just behind a lifting warm front. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms as temps cool aloft, with 250 J/kg of MUCAPE and a 40-50kts of bulk shear. Do not expect any severe storms. Rain showers and those few thunderstorms will continue to lift to the east northeast, as a cold front approaches from the west. Total rainfall amounts will be around 0.25 inch, with slightly higher amounts possible if you are under one of the thunderstorms.

CAM guidance is in pretty good agreement that drier air arrives from the west this evening, with rainfall moving out of the area by 7-10PM from west to east. Gusty south to southwest winds will turn to the northwest as the cold front passes, and remain gusty through tomorrow. Gusts as high as 30mph are possible over the Arrowhead tomorrow. Elsewhere, looking at gusts of 20-25mph. High pressure arrives Sunday evening, with clear skies and diminishing winds. This will allow temperatures to fall below freezing for portions of north central MN, the Arrowhead, and inland northwest WI. Elsewhere, frost is possible, and headlines will be needed for Sunday night into Monday morning.

Southerly winds return on Monday as high pressure shifts to the east. Abundant sunshine and a warming trend will push afternoon high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s for Tuesday. Ripples in northwesterly flow aloft will be of little consequence through the end of the week, as broad upper level ridging across the southern CONUS keeps moisture trapped well to our south. Other than increases to cloud cover at times, a weak trough passing around mid- week will bring slightly cooler (but still above average) air toward the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Scattered showers are moving across most of the Northland this afternoon, with VFR cigs, and breezy southeast winds at most terminals. Winds have already veered to the southwest at BRD, closer to the approaching frontal system. There is better instability across the southwest as well, and cannot rule out thunder within the vicinity of BRD through mid afternoon.

One wave of showers stretching from near INL to HYR is moving to the east, while the next wave is spreading northeastward across BRD eastward to K04W/Hinckley. Expect showers at all terminals through the afternoon, with minimal reductions in vis and cig. Winds will gradually shift to the southwest, with gusts to 20-24kts at times. A period of LLWS is possible at DLH and HYR this evening, as a low level jet increases ahead of approaching cold front. Shower chances decrease at forecast terminals after 03Z, with a period of MVFR cigs possible at DLH and HYR.

Wind shift to the northwest is expected late in the forecast period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

South winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots today will build waves to 1 to 3 feet on Western Lake Superior, with Small Craft Advisories in effect for this afternoon and evening. A cold front moves through tonight, and winds will shift to the west and northwest, remaining gusty up to 30 knots on Sunday with waves of 2 to 4 feet. There could be a period this evening and overnight, where winds diminish slightly before increasing behind the passing cold front. Small Craft Advisories could be needed beyond the current product time, depending on the timing of the cold front. Small Crafts will likely be needed again Sunday morning through Sunday night as winds remain elevated behind the cold front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Light to moderate rain showers continue through this evening, with breezy southeast winds becoming southwesterly. Total rainfall amounts will be less than one quarter of an inch for most locations, with slightly higher amounts along portions of the North Shore. A cold front passing tonight will lead to a dry and blustery Sunday, featuring northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph in the Arrowhead and relative humidity values dropping into the 40 to 50 percent range. Relative humidity remains low on Monday, but lighter surface winds will limit fire potential before warmer temperatures arrive mid-week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-145>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>144.