textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of smoky conditions continue though the weekend, along with near-critical fire weather due dry air and the threat for lightning. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for Monday with much stronger winds.

- Additional rain showers and thunderstorms are possible late Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A cold front had cleared the Northland early this morning with showers and thunderstorms pushing well to the south across central Wisconsin and southeastern Minnesota. High pressure was located over the Northern Plains and will start to spread eastward into the western Great Lakes through the day Saturday resulting in light northerly winds. This could bring some smoke back into the Arrowhead, the North Shore, the Twin Ports and northwest Wisconsin. No significant changes were made to the forecast with isolated severe storms remaining possible Sunday night and near-critical to critical fire weather conditions returning for Monday and Tuesday with gusty northwesterly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A warm front from a low weak low pressure center moving along the International Border has pushed over the area this morning, prompting shower and thunderstorm development over far north and northeast Minnesota. Temperatures and dewpoints in the warm sector are high and a Heat Advisory remains in effect. As the cold front from the aforementioned low pressure system pushes over the area, additional thunderstorm development is expected. With ample instability and shear, some isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. Southwesterly flow has started to improve air quality, pushing the smoke back north. It is expected that a wind switch back to the northwest behind the front could drag another round of smoke back into the area for Saturday, with the worst conditions expected in the MN Arrowhead where an Air Quality Alert remains in effect.

Saturday should be a fairly dry day with lower dewpoints and slightly lower temperatures as well. With those drier conditions however, near-critical fire weather concerns return. Dry afternoon and RH and breezy northwest winds could cause fires to spread quickly, especially if there were any new starts from today's lightning activity. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Saturday, and another may be needed for Sunday, due to the threat of both dry afternoon relative humidity, gusty southwest winds, and additional storms that could make for more cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty erratic winds.

Those storms Sunday are expected to arrive fairly late, overnight into Monday with shower and thunderstorm activity continuing Monday as a shortwave pushes east over our area. sufficient instability and shear could once again lead to some isolated to severe storms in this time period.

Along with and behind that disturbance Monday into Tuesday, very strong gusty wind from the west to northwest are expected Monday and Tuesday. This, combined with dropping dewpoints behind the system could lead to dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for critical fire weather concerns in this time period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period. Some MVFR smoke may move back in Saturday with highest confidence at INL and HYR, although DLH and HIB may see some VSBY reductions as well. Winds will be generally light through much of the period with some gusty winds at DLH and HIB through the day Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Northwesterly winds this morning of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots along the North Shore will become light and variable this afternoon and tonight. Sunday will see southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots becoming possible near the Twin Ports Sunday night. Some smoke will remain possible this morning but with winds having a more southwesterly component outside of the western arm, this should help push smoke further out of western Lake Superior. However, northerly winds tonight over the Arrowhead may bring more smoke back over the lake. It doesn't look as concentrated as before, but may still lead to some visibility reductions.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Dry conditions are expected for Saturday with highs in the 80s. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 35 to 45% range with northerly to northwesterly winds at 5 to 10 mph. Some gusts to 15 to 20 mph will be possible along the North Shore and across northwest Wisconsin. The gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions and a Special Weather Statement has been issued. Mainly dry conditions will continue for Sunday with highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Afternoon RH values will again be in the 35 to 45% range with southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph across north-central Minnesota. Near-critical fire weather conditions will again be in place and another Special Weather System may be needed. Showers and thunderstorms will move through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. A few storms may be strong to severe and bring gusty and erratic winds.

Breezy winds will return for Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front. Northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 to 30 mph will be possible Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Dry air behind the front will also lead to dropping dewpoints leading to critical fire weather concerns both days. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 5 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ121-140>148-150.