textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms arrive on Thursday, with a few severe storms possible in portions of eastern MN and northwest WI on Thursday afternoon and evening. The primary hazard is large hail up to 1.5 inch in diameter.

- Scattered showers on Friday afternoon and evening in far northern Minnesota.

- Nice weekend gives way to an additional round of strong thunderstorms possible Monday PM in north-central Minnesota and again Tuesday for much of the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

For the rest of the day, expect quiet, dry, and pleasant conditions across the Northland with seasonal temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. A shortwave will move into the area tonight, bringing increasing cloud cover west to east tonight. The minimum temperatures tonight for the Arrowhead and inland northwest Wisconsin remain expected to be on the chilly side dipping towards 40 F again...further warmer in the north-central Minnesota counties though into the 50s.

A warm front lifts through the Upper Midwest late tonight into Thursday morning and brings about increasing rain shower chances will early Thursday morning. Isolated general thunderstorms develop Thursday daytime hour, first in the Brainerd Lakes area. By Thursday late afternoon, sufficient bulk shear approaching 50 knots and 1000 to 1500 J/kg of CAPE within an progged 1.5 to 1.7 inches of precipitable water favor a few severe thunderstorms first possible in the late Thursday afternoon hours, but mainly during the evening hours, lasting into the early overnight hours. Large hail to 1.5 inches in diameter is the most likely hazard, with damaging wind gusts being the secondary hazard. The area of most potential is south of the Iron Range towards the Twin Ports in the early evening and then areas further southward along the Interstate 35 and US Hwy 53 corridors in the mid to late evening hours. Localized rainfall up to 1.5 inches is possible from the strongest thunderstorms late Thursday evening, but most areas are more likely to receive 0.25 to 0.5 inches. While the most favored timing window for severe weather Thursday is 4-9 PM strong thunderstorms past 9PM to Midnight cannot be ruled out.

A cold front will drop through the area late Thursday night into Friday morning and bring a return to northwest flow across our region. A weak pool of instability will arrive by Friday afternoon and combine with ongoing daytime showers to produce some general thunderstorms, primarily focused from the Minnesota Borderlands into the Minnesota Arrowhead region.

Behind the cold front, high pressure will build into the Northland and provide a very nice and pleasant weekend. Abundant sunshine and comfortable temperatures in the 70s are expected for both Saturday and Sunday. The progressive pattern continues into early next week as the next round of more widespread thunderstorms is forecast for Monday afternoon and evening. Strong thunderstorms are again possible Monday afternoon and evening for north-central Minnesota. For Tuesday a primed environment may have finally setup over the Northland for another round of strong to potentially severe weather chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail under light northwest to west winds through this evening. High-based rain showers move in late tonight into early Thursday morning. A few non-severe thunderstorms are also forecast for northern Minnesota Thursday after 09Z, increasing in likelihood though during the daytime hours. MVFR visibility is forecast under the strongest rain showers or general thunderstorms Thursday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots will continue across the far North Shore near Grand Portage. A weather system will approach tonight, bringing chances for rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. A few strong storms capable of producing small hail are possible Thursday afternoon and evening for the Twin Ports into the South Shore. Winds will become west to northwesterly by the weekend behind a cold front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Dry conditions will persist for the rest of the day with minimum relative humidity values dropping as low as 25 percent, especially over northwest Wisconsin. However, west to northwest winds being limited to around 5 to 10 mph will keep the overall fire weather threat minimal. A wetting rain is possible for many areas Thursday into Thursday night as showers and thunderstorms cross the region. Thursday evening a few severe thunderstorms are possible for the Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports and southeastward across much of northwest Wisconsin. Additional shower chances are expected Friday for the region, but wetting rainfall is not expected; a few general thunderstorms are possible Friday in far northern Minnesota. A wind shift from south to north will occur Thursday night into Friday behind a passing cold front.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.