textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Record to near-record high temperatures today.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions today through early next week with some areas seeing RH values of 20-25% each day.

- 10% chance of northeast gales near the Twin Ports this evening and into Saturday morning.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are forecast Saturday due to building waves and a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of Duluth and Superior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Synopsis:

A complex split-flow pattern over the North American continent was evident on GOES-East water vapor imagery early this morning. A pseudo-Rex block was over the western half of the continent comprised of a cutoff low over the CA/NV border and a negatively tilted ridge axis from the Gulf Coast to the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces. The northern stream flow had the appearance of an Omega Block with troughs over the northeast Pacific and a trough axis over the Canadian Maritimes into the northwest Atlantic. This pattern will generally remain in place while slowly propagating eastward over the weekend and early next week. The upper-level ridge will amplify toward the Arctic by 00Z Sunday. Broad surface high pressure centered over southern Lower Michigan will drift into the Ohio River Valley by early evening. A backdoor cool front is forecast to propagate westward over northeast Minnesota tonight and Saturday. Additional areas of high pressure will drift through the Great Lakes region through middle to late next week.

Today and Saturday:

Record to near-record temperatures are forecast today as the broad area of high pressure over southern Lower Michigan drifts farther southeast this afternoon. Light southerly return flow is forecast over the Northland which should keep the lake breeze tucked close to the Lake Superior shore over northwest Wisconsin into the Twin Ports until late afternoon or early evening. Areas along the North Shore into the Arrowhead will see more of a lake influence due to the southeasterly winds. Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s inland from Lake Superior while middle 70s to middle 80s are forecast closer to the lake.

High clouds streaming northward over western Minnesota will work against the forecast high temps today. Deterministic NBM max temps are a few degrees warmer than our forecast. Day shift will be better positioned to adjust temps up or down based on the thickness of the clouds once the sun rises. A Heat Advisory may be needed for portions of north-central Minnesota later today. Confidence in the combination of Heat Risk and forecast Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures is not high enough at this time to go forward with an advisory.

Diurnal heating will support a 10% chance of a few isolated storms over central and north-central Minnesota this afternoon. A backdoor cool front will move into the Arrowhead this evening and a few storms may develop ahead of that boundary. Instability will be limited to 500-1500 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear will be in the single digits to the teens. Any storms will be short- lived and slow-moving.

By this evening into Saturday morning, this backdoor cold front will sweep across the area. Winds will turn northeasterly with the strongest winds forecast over Lake Superior. Waves will build near the Twin Ports and a high risk of rip currents is forecast Saturday. Temperatures will be cooler with the combination backdoor cool front and a prominent lake breeze in play. Highs will range from the 60s near Lake Superior to the low to upper 80s well inland. There is a 5-10% chance the lake breeze will kick off a few storms over northwest Wisconsin Saturday afternoon.

Both today and Saturday will see widespread RH values of 20-35% which raises the potential for near-critical fire weather conditions despite the light winds.

Sunday through next week:

Sunday will remain dry and mostly sunny as high pressure settles back over the Great Lakes. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s along the immediate Lake Superior shoreline to the lower and middle 80s further inland. Winds will generally be light from the south and southeast, providing a brief break from the stronger gusts seen earlier in the weekend. Dry afternoon RH values will persist Sunday.

The extended forecast for Monday and Tuesday keeps our temperatures well above normal, with highs consistently reaching the 80s across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. We will see a gradual increase in moisture, which will introduce a 20 percent chance of isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on both days. Southeast winds will remain somewhat breezy, gusting to around 15 to 20 mph each afternoon, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Dry RH values will persist despite the increasing dewpoints.

By Wednesday, the general upper-level pattern begins to shift slightly, maintaining our warm trend with highs in the 70s near the lake and 80s inland. South to southwest winds will pick up slightly, gusting toward 20 mph. Precipitation chances will hover around 20 to 30 percent for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as weak disturbances ripple through the region. Unfortunately, no widespread soaking rainfall is expected through the middle of next week, meaning dry conditions will largely persist.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests the stagnant pattern will break down for the second half of next week. Closed upper-level low pressure will persist over the northeast Pacific and the western Atlantic limiting the west-east progression of the flow. The ridge over the center of the continent de-amplifies and permit a few shortwave troughs to pass over the region with continued chances of showers and storms next Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions with light winds expected through the period. There is a 5-10% chance of a shower or storm developing this afternoon through evening near BRD or HIB. Did not include mentions of precip in this forecast. If a shower or storm passes over the terminal, expect a brief period of MVFR/IFR visibility in rain.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

High pressure over southern Lower Michigan this morning support lighter winds over western Lake Superior today. By this evening into Saturday morning, a sharp frontal passage will cause winds to back northeast while speeds and gusts increase. There is a small chance of gales to 35 knots near the Twin Ports Saturday morning. These strong winds will persist into Saturday, building waves and creating hazardous conditions for small craft across the nearshore waters. Wind and waves diminish for Sunday before strong northeast winds return Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Warmer temperatures and dry RH values are forecast today. Highs will climb into the low 80s to low 90s for most locations, except along the North Shore into the Arrowhead and the immediate shoreline areas of northwest Wisconsin. Winds will generally remain below 15 mph today. Afternoon RH values will bottom out in the 20-35% range with the driest conditions over the Brainerd Lakes north to the Canadian border and into the western Boundary Waters. A lake breeze should begin to advance slowly inland over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as southerly winds weaken. The lake breeze will bring a slight increase in wind speeds and will back winds northeasterly in its wake. A cold front will move into the Arrowhead late this afternoon or early evening and push through the remainder of the Northland on Saturday. Winds back northeasterly and gusts increase, particularly for areas downwind of Lake Superior. RH values will continue to be dry despite cooler temperatures. Dry RHs will be a concern each day Sunday through early next week. There is some signal of rain chances returning during the middle to late portions of next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Record to near-record high temperatures return today. Hibbing is forecast to break their record by several degrees. International Falls and Duluth are forecast to be within 1 degree of their record. Below are the sites where forecast high temperatures are within 3 degrees of their record values. High clouds spreading northward may keep temperatures cooler than these values.

Friday, May 29: Forecast Record -------- ------ Duluth: 86 ........ 87 in 1986 Hibbing: 92 ........ 88 in 1999 and 2006 I. Falls: 91 ........ 92 in 1919 Brainerd: 91 ........ 94 in 2018

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.