textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog for areas near Lake Superior this afternoon and evening.

- A light wintry mix is likely (50-80%) for far northern MN this evening and overnight. There is also a slight chance (15%) for some light rain to move across NW WI tonight.

- An impactful winter storm will move across the Upper Midwest late Tuesday through early Thursday. This system will be bringing an initial wintry mix and then the potential for heavy, wet snowfall along with strong winds. Near-blizzard conditions are possible along the North Shore. Hazardous travel impacts are expected.

- The active weather pattern continues late this week with additional chances for snowfall and a return to seasonal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Rest of Today - Tonight:

Plenty of sunshine and warm temperatures being seen across most of the Northland this afternoon as widespread highs in the 40s to low 50s are being observed, though cooler temperatures in the 30s to low 40s remain immediately near Lake Superior. Several daily high temperatures are again in jeopardy of being broken this afternoon.

Visible satellite and traffic cameras show a broad expanse of fog expanding southwestward across western Lake Superior. Some question remains as to how far southwest it gets and how long it hangs around given southerly to southwesterly winds for this evening and tonight. For now we have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the North Shore through this evening, that may need to be expanded.

Cloud cover will be on the increase from the west this afternoon into tonight as a low pressure system moves into northern Ontario and a weak low pressure moves through central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. There is some dry air in the lower parts of the atmosphere for southern portions of the area, but expect to see light precipitation move across areas along and north of the Iron Range this evening into tonight. With warm temperatures to start, rain should be the main precipitation type. However, from late evening into tonight, cooling surface temperatures combined with a warm nose aloft should introduce some very light snow and potentially even some very light freezing rain/drizzle. Accumulations of snow and ice will be minimal at a trace to a couple tenths of an inch of snow and up to a very light glaze of ice. The best potential for ice to mix in will be in the tip of the Arrowhead tonight.

Monday - Early Tuesday:

Surface high pressure in the region should keep weather dry to start the work week. Very mild temperatures continue Monday daytime Tuesday, with widespread highs in the upper 30s to 40s on Monday and 30s to low 40s on Tuesday. Already increased temperatures a few degrees for Monday, but given trends the last few days they may need to be increased further.

Impactful Winter Storm Late Tuesday - Thursday:

A deep trough over the Pacific Coast early this week will eject a potent, negatively-tilted shortwave trough across the northern Rockies daytime Tuesday and into the Upper Midwest Tuesday evening through early Thursday. This system will have access to plenty of moisture feeding in from the Pacific near Baja California and western Gulf. ECMWF EFI/SOT highlight the Northland for a signal of both unusually high QPF and snow potential, particularly north of the surface low tracks. Forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.75" are possible, being near or above the maximum of sounding climatology. Surface low pressure will also be deep, forecast to be near or at the CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of year. The signal for strong synoptic forcing for ascent with a large deformation band associated with the northern and northeastern sides of the surface lows should bring notable widespread precipitation to the Northland with this system from Tuesday evening through early Thursday.

Today's 12Z runs of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble have started to show a more elongated area and/or two distinct surface low pressure centers by Wednesday; one in west-central/central Minnesota and the other in central/east-central Wisconsin as can be seen in the WPC surface fronts forecast. The general trend in the surface low track clustering was once again every so slightly northward, introducing the potential for a wintry mix even farther north than previous forecasts.

Still some north-south wiggle room in the forecasts of the exact track of the surface low pressures, so precipitation type will play a big factor for the predominant types and amounts of precipitation in southern portions of the Northland. The latest forecast still favors snow as the primary precipitation type for most of the Northland, but the potential for a wintry mix (snow/rain and light freezing rain/sleet) is about 20-60% for the Iron Range south into the South Shore). Inland northwest Wisconsin in most likely to primarily see rain Tuesday evening and night before switching over to a rain/snow mix daytime Wednesday and then all snow by wednesday night. Moderate to high precipitation rates are expected with this system, with the highest precipitation rates currently forecast for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Additionally, very strong east- northeasterly winds off of Lake Superior late Tuesday and Wednesday will aid in terrain and lake enhancement to precipitation rates and snow totals for the North Shore. Once the surface low passes through late Wednesday/Wednesday night, the precipitation type should transition to all snow as we get into the cold sector of the low, with precipitation gradually coming to an end sometime on Thursday.

Despite some uncertainty remaining regarding the northward extent of the mixed precipitation, confidence has increased enough regarding heavy snowfall potential to issue a Winter Storm Watch for most of north-central and northeast Minnesota, and Douglas and Bayfield Counties in Wisconsin. The latest run of the NBM shows 40-95% probabilities from Tuesday evening through Thursday of >6" of snow for all but southern Cass to Pine County in northeast Minnesota and the northern half of Douglas and Bayfield County in Wisconsin. Given these higher probabilities, a Winter Storm Watch was issued for these areas from Tuesday evening through midday Thursday. Inland northwest Wisconsin. Shovelable snow probabilities (with >2" as a proxy) are only below 50% in northwest Wisconsin due to a better potential for primarily rain there when precipitation rates will be highest. There is also concern for much higher snow totals along the North Shore due to terrain and lake enhancement. Probabilities of 12" or more of snow are 50-90% along the North Shore, highest near Silver Bay.

Strong easterly winds will also be present late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, which could produce pockets of visibility to 1/4 mile or less at times in much of northeast Minnesota and parts of the South Shore. Near-blizzard conditions are also possible during that timeframe for the North Shore, particularly MN-61, due to wind gusts up to 40-50 mph screaming in off of Lake Superior. Hazardous travel conditions are expected for much of the Northland Tuesday evening into Thursday morning, with the worst impacts for the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes due to a combination of wet, heavy snow, strong winds, and low visibility.

Additional Snow Potential Late This Week:

The main deep trough over the western CONUS is then progged to move east into the Rockies late Thursday/early Friday and then into the central CONUS Friday into Saturday. Ensemble spread remains wider regarding surface low tracks with this late week system, but there has been a slight northwestward shift in the surface low tracks over the past few model runs. Therefore, the probability of another round of snow for the Northland late Thursday through Friday has increased. However, confidence remains low regarding snowfall amounts with this second low pressure system, though several inches of additional accumulating snow can't be ruled out if the Northland becomes situated in the northwestern precipitation shield of the surface low. As for temperatures, there is high confidence we will see temperatures cool off to near-normal values for mid-February late this week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Clouds are moving in from the west as an upper level trough and weak low pass through. An area of rain initially will mix with snow at INL this evening. Expect MVFR ceilings and visibility at times over the next 4 to perhaps 5 hours as this mixed precipitation passes through. This mixed precipitation probably won't affect other terminals too much, but models suggest that some fog may develop later tonight. MVFR visibilities are possible. There is a 60 to 80 percent chance for visibilities less than 6 SM after midnight through mid-morning at all terminals and MVFR to IFR visibilities may be possible at times, especially at INL where precipitation fell. Expect any fog to lift around mid to late morning, leading to VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 356 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The fog bank continues to expand southwestward in Lake Superior, so the Marine Dense Fog Advisory was expanded to include all nearshore areas through 10 PM CST. Expansions to the advisory may be needed into tonight if the fog holds on longer than currently forecast, possibly into Monday.

Light winds and minimal waves through Monday. Northeast winds will ramp up Tuesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Gales are very likely across the Near Shore waters starting late Tuesday afternoon/evening through Wednesday night with potential for storm force winds along the North Shore Tuesday evening into daytime Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for MNZ020-021. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037. WI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for WIZ001-002. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>146- 148-150. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LSZ140>144. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ142. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for LSZ142. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ145-146-148-150.