textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Slow moving cold front brings scattered showers tonight through early Tuesday, with rainfall totals of 0.10-0.40 inch.

- Closer to seasonal temperatures through the week, with light precipitation returning Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

A cold front stretches from near Crane Lake southwestward to near Brainerd this afternoon. Ahead of the front, warm southwesterly flow is breezy at times with a mix of mid and high level cloudiness. Behind the front, low stratus and scattered rain showers are moving southwest to northeast, with occasionally breezy north winds. This front will slowly move to the southeast, with winds gradually turning to the northeast overnight. Winds will be breezy, with the strongest winds near the shoreline. Cannot rule out scattered showers overnight, mainly near the border and over the Arrowhead, but for most of the area, cloudy skies are expected. Cooler air arrives behind the front, with lows ranging from the upper 30s near the border to around 60F from Siren eastward to Park Falls.

Monday:

Tomorrow morning, the front should stretch across northwest WI, draped underneath somewhat zonal flow aloft. There could be some scattered showers around through the morning and early afternoon, but more widespread coverage is possible tomorrow evening as a stronger shortwave craves out the ridge sitting to our south. The shortwave will bring better dynamics and lapse rates as temps cool aloft. However, warm advection keeps the airmass capped. While shear values are 40-50kts, MUCAPE values are meager at around 300 J/kg or less. There is a non- zero chance of thunder from Brainerd to Duluth southward by late afternoon and evening, with a few non-severe elevated storms possible.

Tuesday into the end of the work week:

High pressure builds into the region for mid week, with more seasonal temperatures expected each day. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s. The next system arrives Thursday, as a southern stream upper low opens up as it lifts across the Plains and merges with a northern stream trough dropping through central Canada. Deterministic models have come into better agreement today with each other and ensemble guidance, showing a double surface low set up, with moisture streaming northward into the Midwest. There remains timing differences, with the moisture advection spreading more toward the southern Great Lakes. This would limit precipitation chances for the Northland. Drier conditions return for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

A cold front will be stalling over the region tonight, leading to variable conditions. North of this front, MVFR to IFR cigs have been observed with scattered showers. These conditions are anticipated to continue through the period for terminals such as KINL and KHIB. KDLH will also likely see deteriorating conditions tonight into tomorrow, with conditions as low as LIFR forecast as onshore flow from Lake Superior occurs. For terminals south of the front such as KBRD and KHYR, conditions will be more VFR to MVFR with the potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday afternoon. Expect winds to be north to northeast following the cold front, strongest around the Twin Ports in the lee of Lake Superior.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Winds become northeasterly tonight and increase in speeds through the early morning hours Monday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for this evening. Gales will be possible late tonight, on both the North Shore and South Shore. High res guidance would suggest the areas most likely to see gales are from the Silver Bay down through the Twin Ports and around to the Outer Apostle islands, but cannot rule out gales along other portions of the North Shore. Gales are likely to diminish Monday afternoon but wind speeds and wave heights would still remain hazardous for small vessels through Tuesday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Slow moving cold front is moving into the region this afternoon, with light rain showers near the Canadian border through the evening. Further south across interior northwest WI, with mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures, RHs could fall into the mid 30s for an hour or two. Winds for most of the area are out of the southwest, with gusts to 20mph through this afternoon.

With the slow nature of the cold front, winds will gradually turn to the northeast overnight, with the strongest winds near the shores of western Lake Superior through the day tomorrow. Scattered showers will become more widespread, by Monday evening, with totals between 0.10-0.30". Drier conditions expected Tuesday night through Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LSZ121- 148. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140-150. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>147-150. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ141- 142. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ143>147.