textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of freezing drizzle and areas of fog expected today through Friday.

- Rain chances highest Friday night when a tenth to three quarters of an inch of rainfall are expected with wide variations in amounts from west to east.

- Warm temperatures (15F above normal) this weekend before dropping back to normal early to middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Patchy to Areas of fog and possibly some freezing drizzle this morning. Drizzle is most likely in north-central Minnesota as a weak shortwave moves along a mid-level ridge centered over the north-central U.S. Drizzle chances will shift eastward into northeast Minnesota by Thursday morning. Increasing southerly winds should preclude any dense fog formation. However, persistent stratus should continue until deeper moisture arrives with the next warm system.

Tonight into Friday morning, southeasterly onshore winds may bring freezing drizzle along the North Shore and parts of inland northwest Wisconsin. These conditions are expected ahead of a low-pressure system moving through central and eastern Wisconsin Friday afternoon. As deeper moisture and stronger frontal forcing arrive later Friday, more widespread rainfall is anticipated, with totals ranging from 0.1 to 0.75 inches with the smaller amounts west of N-S line near Aitkin and the larger totals near Lake Superior. Cooler air wrapping around the system may lead to a mix of rain and snow in northern Minnesota early Saturday and in northwest Wisconsin later in the day.

This brief cooling period will give way to southwesterly flow by Saturday night, as all rain and light snow shower chances diminish. Temperatures, currently in the upper 20s, are expected to rise into the mid-30s later this week and remain near freezing through Sunday. Cooler air from Canada will wrap around a low-pressure system deepening in southern Canada, bringing a colder airmass to the region by Monday. A dry cold front will drop southward, returning temperatures to seasonal norms by mid- next week. Favorable northwest winds should start up the lake effect snow machine on the South Shore by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Expect low cigs to persist with fog and freezing fog reducing vis to 2 miles or less for most forecast terminals. There may be brief improvements here and there, but generallly poor flight cats. Expect another decrease in flight cats this evening as more moisture moves northward and drizzle becomes more likely.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 208 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

South-southwesterly winds funneling between Isle Royale and the tip of the Arrowhead are expected to produce gusts of up to 25 knots from late tonight through midday Thursday. Due to these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Elsewhere on the lake, winds are expected to stay at or below 20 knots through Friday morning. By Friday, winds are forecast to shift to an easterly direction.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140.