textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry into the week. Low RHs today will slowly begin to recover after today.

- Next chance of rain is still Friday night into Saturday.

- Dry pattern returns at the end of next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

For the rest of the day, broad surface high pressure building across the Upper Midwest will maintain quiet, sunny, and unseasonably mild conditions across the Northland. Current RH values are already dipping into the low 30s and upper 20s percent, further supporting the lowering of minimum RH each day for the past few days as very dry air aloft continues to mix down toward the surface, keeping daytime humidity exceptionally low. Clear skies and light winds tonight will promote efficient radiational cooling, bringing a chilly night across the area, though not as cold as last night.

On Tuesday, a stable omega blocking pattern becomes firmly established across the central United States, keeping our region under the control of an upper-level ridge. Kept the trend for slightly increased daily maximum temperatures going each day through Thursday. Plentiful sunshine will prevail alongside light southerly breezes. Meanwhile, local lake breezes will develop along the Lake Superior shoreline during the afternoon, keeping coastal areas noticeably cooler and closer to seasonal norms along the North Shore, while interior communities continue to experience unseasonable autumn warmth. The lake breeze is expected to move the most inland on Tuesday and Thursday.

Changes begin on Friday as the persistent omega ridge starts to break down. A closed upper-level low over the Great Basin will eject northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. Cloud cover will steadily increase throughout the day. Rain chances are still on track to arrive Friday night into Saturday, and confidence is higher that precipitation will occur over that time period even if scattered as models are becoming more constant with that timing. Because temperatures ahead of the system remain unseasonably mild, all precipitation will fall strictly as liquid rain.

Scattered light rain showers will linger across the area through Saturday as the trough axis and associated cold front push across the Upper Great Lakes. By Sunday, dry conditions return as high pressure rebuilds behind the departing system, accompanied by clearing skies. A significant air mass change behind the cold front will drop temperatures back toward seasonal values for late October.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions for the TAF period. Skies will be clear except for high clouds, and winds will remain out of the east to southeast.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Surface high pressure will keep winds light across western Lake Superior, with northeast winds becoming dominant this afternoon and evening. Gusts up to around 20 knots are expected at the head of the lake, producing waves of 1 to 2 feet, while remaining waters see waves of 1 foot or less. A similar setup continues Tuesday with light morning winds increasing slightly in the afternoon, followed by a shift to southwest winds on Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Surface high pressure overhead maintains very dry conditions today, with minimum relative humidity dipping into the upper 20s and low 30s percent, and localized values near 25 percent in northern Minnesota and 35 percent in northwest Wisconsin. Deeper atmospheric mixing could briefly drop values into the lower 20s. However, winds will remain very light out of the north and east, preventing critical fire weather conditions. The dry air mass exits east on Tuesday, allowing relative humidity values to begin recovering as light southerly winds return. A quiet midweek with light winds will persist before the next chance of rain arrives Friday night into Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.