textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Clouds and a few sprinkles today. Areas of locally dense fog tonight.

- Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday into Monday night. A few strong storms and a stray severe storm may be possible, mainly in the Brainerd Lakes area. - Quiet, dry, and seasonable weather Tuesday-Thursday with highs in the 70s to around 80.

- Another chance for rain and storms arrives around Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Plenty of clouds with a few embedded sprinkles is the story of this Sunday. Drier air is filtering in from the northwest with a surface high moving in from the west. Therefore, expect gradually clearing skies this afternoon and mostly clear skies overnight. We will probably get some fog to develop with good radiational cooling conditions. Models are pretty solid on having fog in the usual low-lying inland areas. The probability for visibilities less than 1 mile are generally 20% or less, so we will probably see some patchy dense fog, but perhaps not enough coverage to warrant any Dense Fog Advisories. Expect fog to lift/mix out just after sunrise Monday morning.

Monday afternoon into Monday night, another cold front is expected to make its way through from northwest to southeast. We'll have sufficient moisture for some thunderstorms with PWATs in the 1-1.5" range. Good synoptic support for lift with the front itself and an upper-level trough aloft. Convective parameters are so-so for any strong/severe storms. The timing of this has trended earlier such that we may catch the peak diurnal heating Monday afternoon and end up with ~1000 J/kg or so of MUCAPE, at least in northeast Minnesota. Not much for low-level directional shear with southwest flow expected ahead of the front. Some drier air aloft ahead of the front could produce a small risk for strong wind gusts. All said, we'll be looking at widespread showers and storms likely Monday afternoon and night, generally weakening a bit as they move into northwest Wisconsin. A few storms could be on the strong side with some small hail and gusty winds, and a stray severe storm can't be ruled out with low-end strong winds or quarter size hail being the main threats.

Expect the front to be out of here Tuesday morning, leaving us with northwest flow and some slightly cooler temperatures (highs in the 70s). Tuesday night might be on the chilly side with lows in the 40s likely and perhaps some stray upper 30s not out of the question for the usual cold spots. High pressure sticks around into Wednesday, keeping the weather quiet. Southerly return flow will likely develop Thursday, and we'll be watching for another cold front to be making its way here by around Friday. We could see another round of showers and storms with this. At this time, convective parameters look rather dull for anything strong/severe, but that could change.

The pattern is looking very pre-fall next weekend with northwest flow following the cold front. Some lingering instability showers can't be ruled out Saturday, but otherwise the weather looks pretty quiet. One might be tempted to call this fall-like weather, but with temperatures still looking to be in the 70s to around 80 for highs, it should still be feeling more like late-summer weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Lingering MVFR broken ceilings are expected to gradually mix out over the next 1-3 hours, leading to VFR conditions. Blustery northwest winds with gusts around or just over 15 kt persist through this afternoon as well. High pressure will cause winds to become calm overnight with skies becoming mostly clear. There are consistent model signals for fog to develop, especially at HYR/HIB. Other terminals could see some as well, though confidence isn't quite high enough to mention it in the TAFs. MVFR and possibly occasional IFR conditions are likely tonight due to fog. Expect fog to mix out around sunrise with VFR conditions after that.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Winds blustery at times this afternoon from the northwest, but still expecting gusts to remain around 15 kt or less. Winds become light and switch to southwesterly tonight. Winds become a bit blustery Monday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Gusts to around 25 kt are expected from Grand Marais to Grand Portage, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. It's possible that similar gusts may be found further southwest towards Silver Bay, but with probabilities less than 20% for 25 kt gusts, I will hold off on a Small Craft Advisory from Grand Marais to Silver Bay for this update. Showers and storms will likely pass through Monday afternoon and night as the cold front passes through. Severe weather is not expected. Winds will shift to northwesterly into Tuesday with gusts generally to 15 kt. With high pressure moving in through Wednesday, winds will become more light and variable.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Plenty of clouds and even a few sprinkles this afternoon, so RH isn't expected to fall much below 50%, even with northwest flow. On Monday, ahead of a cold front, we may see some drier conditions with RH in the ~30-45% range for some places, mainly in northwest Wisconsin where rain isn't expected until after sunset. Winds will be southwesterly with gusts up to 15-20 mph. Expect showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night as the cold front passes through. Rainfall amounts will likely be variable and some places may not see much, but several places could pick up around 0.1-0.3" with some locally higher amounts. Dry conditions with northwest flow Tuesday and Wednesday. RH in the 30-45% range is likely with wind gusts around 10-20 mph. Similarly dry and breezy Thursday, but with winds becoming southwesterly. Another cold front is possible Friday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.