textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snow continues today, heaviest across NE MN, particularly the North Shore where blizzard conditions with snowfall rates of 1"/hour or greater and winds up to 55mph are expected. Snow should depart the area by Thursday morning.

- Rain, non-severe thunderstorms, and light mixed precipitation expected across Northwest Wisconsin, with minimal impacts.

- Fairly benign weather expected through much of the 7 day period, with a couple light passing showers possible Friday into Saturday. Temperatures warm up into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A strong 990mb low pressure system pushing across the Driftless Area of Iowa/MN/WI early this afternoon continues to bring precipitation to the Northland. As moisture aloft filled in this morning we saw a resurgence of better snowfall rates return to the area, mostly in NE MN, as the DGZ became saturated. Since then, we've seen a nice lake/terrain boost occur along the North Shore bringing rapidly deteriorating conditions with quick snowfall accumulations. Across NW WI, a rain/snow line has begun to set up with snow/drizzle/rain mixing across the area.

A secondary push of moisture is expected to come across the area through the afternoon and early evening hours bringing another round of accumulations associated with good synoptic support from the occluded front of this low. HREF probabilities of 1"/hour or more are best over NE MN, especially the North Shore from about 2 to 7pm, after which the heaviest snowfall rates quickly push north and accumulations taper off. This could bring a widespread additional 2 to 8 inches of snow to the area with the greatest amounts along the higher terrain of the North Shore. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect, except where the warning has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning along the North Shore. Localized to widespread blizzard conditions are expected along the North Shore with winds of 35 to 50 mph screaming off of Lake Superior. Those worst blizzard conditions are likely this afternoon through mid evening.

Across the I-35 corridor and Northwest Wisconsin through this afternoon and evening a rain snow line will likely set up somewhere, with snow to the north and rain and freezing drizzle to the south. The best chance for a couple more inches of snow are across Pine, Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland counties, with a better chance for rain and a a possible light glaze of ice for Washburn, Sawyer, Price, and Iron Counties. Winter Weather Advisories have been extended for portions of the area. Some non-severe thunderstorms are also possible in NW WI, and could contain some pea-sized hail and a brief downpour.

As this system exits the region overnight, snow accumulations should become minimal into Thursday morning. Some light showers could stick around under northwesterly flow through about midday. Then, we get pretty quiet weather wise with just a couple passing chances for some snow/rain showers with some weak shortwaves.

Looking ahead into next week, ensemble guidance continues to show strong signs of a pattern shift into warmer and drier conditions. Widespread high temperatures in the 40s and 50s look to return early to mid next week which could lead to some fire weather concerns as we dry out in the afternoons.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

As the low begins to exit the region, the northwest quadrant of the low affecting the Minnesota terminals is still producing light to moderate snow. IFR conditions are expected to continue while snow persists. HYR is at MVFR for now as it is under the dry slot, but will see reductions in visibility as more light snow drifts east tonight. As we head towards morning, conditions will begin to slowly lift as moisture from the system dissipates. Winds will increase out of the northwest throughout the day, with gusts up to 20 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Strong east to northeast wind continue into this evening with gales for much of western Lake Superior occurring. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all the near shore waters in western Lake Superior except from Bayfield to Saxon Harbor, where Small Craft Advisories in effect. With the expected tight pressure gradient force developing this afternoon and evening, Storm Force wind gusts up to 50 knots are expected along the North Shore from Silver Bay to Grand Portage and a Storm Warning remains in effect for these nearshore waters. Expect very high waves to occur across much of the western arm of Lake Superior with highest waves of 8 to 13 feet along the North Shore above Silver Bay. Winds and waves decrease tonight into Thursday morning as the low pressure moves east and high pressure begins to build. Fairly quiet conditions the rest of the week into the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>037. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 140>148-150.