textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold weather tonight with temperatures falling as low as 25 degrees below zero in northeast Minnesota.

- A quick-moving clipper arrives Saturday evening, bringing a light dusting of snow for most area and the potential for a thin glaze of ice from freezing drizzle in central Minnesota and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Up to an inch or two of snow may fall in the Arrowhead.

- Another round of light wintry precipitation is possible Sunday night, especially in the Arrowhead.

- Warmer temperatures next week with periodic chances for light snow or mixed precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

The Northland is currently seeing clearing skies this afternoon as high pressure begins to settle in from the west. While north to northwest winds remain gusty for the next few hours, they will diminish quickly around sunset. This will set the stage for an exceptionally cold night under mostly clear skies. Temperatures are expected to plummet, especially in typically colder spots like the Iron Range and the interior Arrowhead, where lows will bottom out around 20 and 25 below zero. This forecast is around the 10th percentile of model guidance, which seems appropriate for the ideal radiational cooling night expected. Even with that, we are still not expected to get cold enough to warrant any cold weather headlines as very light to calm winds should keep wind chills minimal.

The cold snap tonight will be short-lived as a warming trend begins to take hold on Saturday after high pressure departs to the west. We will get into a southerly flow and warm air advection regime, allowing Saturday afternoon temperatures to recover quickly into the teens above zero. Clouds will increase throughout the day as a fast-moving clipper approaches from the northwest. This system is expected to bring a light dusting of snow to much of the area Saturday evening, with the Arrowhead potentially seeing one to two inches. There is a concern for light freezing drizzle to mix in with the snow, particularly for areas along roughly west of the Highway 53 corridor as warmer temperatures and also drier air aloft may allow for loss of ice (favoring the potential for some freezing drizzle or light rain at times). This could result in a light glaze of ice on untreated surfaces Saturday evening. All-in-all, it looks like a low-impact system, and in general the models have been trending the main axis of frontogenetical precipitation a little further to the northwest. Still, we will keep an eye on the potential for light freezing drizzle, which would be more likely further west and would probably pose the bigger (though still minor) impact versus snow if it happens.

Looking ahead to Sunday and the early part of next week, the region will enter a much milder pattern with temperatures rising above seasonal normals. However, this transition remains active. Another quick-hitting clipper on Sunday night could bring another chance for light snow, perhaps mixed with light freezing drizzle, mainly across the Arrowhead. By Monday and Tuesday, many locations could see afternoon highs climbing into the 30s or possibly even low 40s, leading to a bit of a mid- winter thaw. A wavy westerly flow pattern may keep the clippers coming next week at times, but major storm systems are looking unlikely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Surface high pressure over Manitoba and northwest Ontario will drift southeastward through the western Great Lakes during the forecast period. Radiational cooling overnight will create a small chance of lower visibilities between 06Z and 15Z. The vast majority of the model guidance keeps conditions VFR. GLAMP visibilities introduce a less than 20% chance of IFR or LIFR visibility at HIB, INL, and HYR. The more likely outcome seems to be direct deposition onto the existing snowpack rather than fog development. Dewpoints are quite low already and upstream dry air with the approaching surface high pressure should contribute to keeping visibilities VFR. Will monitor trends this evening in case of increased probability of lower visibility values. There is also a small chance of VFR flurries at INL and HIB between 09Z and 16Z as a weak band of ascent over central Manitoba slides southeast toward northern Minnesota. After 08.00Z forecast guidance is mixed regarding a weak clipper passing over the region. There is a small chance of light snow or mixed precipitation between 08.00Z and 08.12Z. The highest chances of reduced visibility and precipitation are northeast of the terminals and include KELO, KCKC, KTWM, KASX, and KPBH.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the portions of the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior through this evening. Northwest winds gusting up to 25 knots will create choppy conditions, particularly for the North Shore and the Apostle Islands. Winds and waves will subside tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Winds become south to southeasterly on Saturday with gusts up to 10 to 15 knots. Some light snow or mixed precipitation is possible Saturday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140- 141-148-150.