textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures for most areas again Sunday. Highs in the middle and upper 60s in Koochiching County to the middle 80s in the St. Croix Valley.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon due to gusty winds of 25-35 mph, dry air, and very warm temperatures. - Closer to seasonal temperatures next week with light rain chances returning late Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

SYNOPSIS:

Split flow aloft over the CONUS featured a trough over the Pacific Northwest into British Columbia with a ridge axis over the Great Lakes in the northern stream. The southern stream included a trough over the Lower Mississippi River Valley to the west of the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. An southerly low- level jet was located over Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and northwest Ontario. Surface low pressure was centered over eastern North Dakota. A warm front extended eastward from the low pressure across northern Minnesota while a cool front arced southwestward over northwest South Dakota into northern Wyoming. An area of showers, with occasional lightning, stretched from northwest Minnesota into northwest Ontario along the northern periphery of the 850 mb low-level jet.

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:

Despite a deep layer of dry air between cloud bases and the ground, sprinkles were reaching the ground in spots. Expect that trend to continue in response to strong isentropic ascent in the 700-500 mb layer. Showers with brief lightning flashes will persist through tonight and will gradually depart northern Minnesota to the north. Gusty southerly winds will gradually weaken tonight with the loss of daytime heating and decoupling of the boundary layer. The low-level jet will strengthen this evening as it propagates farther eastward as the surface low lifts into northwest Ontario and the cold front moves into western Minnesota overnight. The front will very slowly progress eastward on Sunday and is expected to stall out over Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Scattered showers will develop in the warm sector near the Canadian Border. Another very warm day is forecast Sunday ahead of the cold front. Look for highs in the middle 60s in north-central Minnesota where clouds and showers are expected to the low and middle 80s from central Minnesota to the Twin Ports and over northwest Wisconsin.

The cold front will push a little farther south Sunday night. Rain chances extend as far south as the US-2 corridor by 7 AM Monday.

MONDAY:

Monday is shaping up as a transition day. The cold front is expected to push farther south during the day. Both the GFS and ECMWF feature southwesterly flow near the surface over east- central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin during the morning before the front passes over those areas. Rain chances will persist over northern Minnesota. Highs will range from the low 50s along the Canadian Border to the low to upper 70s south of a line from Hinckley to Mercer. Strong northeast winds are expected along the Lake Superior shore in response to the favorable pressure gradient over western Lake Superior. Rain chances increase Monday night as several lobes of vorticity propagate eastward across the Northland.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK:

Showers taper off Tuesday and temperatures will be a few degrees either side of normal. Surface high pressure is forecast to drift eastward through the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Low confidence in forecast details Thursday and beyond persists. The 12Z suite of guidance continues to feature two distinct evolutions. The GFS/GEFS features an upper-level trough moving across the Midwest Thursday and Friday with widespread precipitation. The ECMWF/EPS generates a cutoff low over the Intermountain West leaving high pressure in place over the western Great Lakes. Cluster analysis seems to lean toward the ECMWF/EPS solutions as of this morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Breezy southerly flow, which resulting in record breaking warmth today, will continue into tonight. A strong low-level jet is expected to continue LLWS for all terminals tonight into Sunday morning. VFR conditions will be occurring for most terminals through the period. The exception will be KINL, where there is a 40-60% chance for IFR cigs on Sunday morning as a series of upper level disturbances move through the Borderlands and bring a chance for scattered rain showers. Expect winds to ease tonight into Sunday as the center of a low pressure system moves through the area.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast over the South Shore waters this afternoon and tonight. The cool water temperatures compared to the well above normal air temperatures over NW WI and portions of east-central MN will create a stable layer over the lake away from the shore. The strongest winds will be found along the immediate shoreline areas. Small Craft Advisories may need to be expanded to include portions of the North Shore from Duluth to Silver Bay if wind gusts of 20-25 knots can materialize there. Wind gusts will subside Sunday morning. A cool front is forecast to stall over the Northland for Monday. Winds will turn northeasterly and strengthen making conditions hazardous for smaller vessels. There is a 40% chance of gales of 35-40 knots over the Outer Apostle Islands and portions of the southwest arm of Lake Superior. Waves wil build to 3 to 11 feet with the highest wave heights over the Outer Apostle Islands and from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. Wind gusts gradually weaken Monday night into Tuesday morning. Rain chances will increase during that time. The combination of rain and cool water temperatures may lead to dense fog development Tuesday morning. Another period of hazardous wind and waves is possible late next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Expect south-southwest winds to remain gusty into this evening while RH values recover to 65-95% overnight. A cold front will slowly advance eastward Sunday and will bring cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and a chance of showers for far northern Minnesota. Areas of central Minnesota east into northwest Wisconsin will see warm temperatures and dry conditions once again, although winds will be less gusty. Afternoon RH values will range from around 30 percent over portions of the St. Croix Valley in NW WI to the middle 60s in north-central Minnesota. Winds will gradually veer westerly and northwesterly through the day as the cold front progresses east. The front is expected to stall over the Northland which will provide well above normal temperatures Monday south of a line from Hinckley to Mercer where highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloudy skies and rain chances will keep conditions less favorable for fire north of that line. Light rain showers should expand over all of the Northland Monday night into Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures and warm low temperatures are shown below for today and Sunday, October 10th and 11th, where the forecast temperature is within three degrees of approaching the record temperature.

High Temperatures:

10/10: Record Forecast KDLH: 82/1938 82 KINL: 80/1955 79 KBRD: 85/1928 84 KHIB: 81/1938 81 KASX: 86/1938 86

10/11: Record Forecast KASX: 86/2015 85

Warm Minimum Temperatures:

10/11: Record Forecast KDLH: 58/1938 60 KBRD: 58/1997 63 KHIB: 55/1938 60 KASX: 58/2015 64

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-145>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ140.