textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries are expected today for areas seeing overcast skies, bringing a dusting of snowfall today through tonight.

- Cooler temperatures arrive this weekend into early next week. Sub- zero wind chills are expected, especially on Monday morning.

- A Clipper arriving Monday night and continuing into Wednesday will bring a chance for widespread accumulating snow, especially in the Arrowhead.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A large portion of the CWA this morning is seeing low stratus occurs within an area of low-level saturation. Flurries have been observed underneath this low stratus this morning as the cloud deck is sitting right within the DGZ. For areas that continue to see stratus today, these flurries are expected to continue on and off. Latest nighttime microphysics imagery from GOES early this morning show clearing occurring in north-central MN into the St. Croix River valley, which is a result of northward dry air advection in the low to mid levels. While this will lead to an improvement in overcast skies this morning, especially in the western CWA, additional moisture arriving this afternoon is expected to redevelop the stratus and sporadic flurries. Snow accumulations from these flurries is expected to only be a dusting with a 10% chance for 0.1" or greater of snow accumulation today through tonight.

Temperatures this weekend will become cooler as a shortwave trough dives into southern MN on Sunday. Widespread snowfall from this shortwave will be fairly minimal, with only additional chances for flurries as horizontal convective rolls develop. While snowfall won't be anything to write home about, this shortwave will bring cold air advection into the CWA with much cooler temps, especially on Sunday night into Monday morning. Low temps early Monday morning will range from the single digits above zero in north-central WI to the negative tens in the Arrowhead and Borderlands. Wind chills early Monday morning are forecast to be below zero across the region, coldest in the tip of the Arrowhead in the -20s.

One thing to note this weekend will be the likelihood of lake effect snow in the snow belts of northern Iron County as this cold air surge occurs. Northerly winds this weekend will allow for favorable fetch over Lake Superior, which shows decreased solid ice cover following last week's blizzard. While latest analysis shows areas of 70% concentration, there will still likely be enough open water to develop lake effect snow. Light lake effect snow will begin later this morning, persisting into Sunday night. Snowfall rates will initially be light as the depth of convection remains shallow. However, as colder air filters in on Sunday, lake induced instability will be increasing to 200-400 J/kg with a deeper convective layer. Total snowfall around the Penokee Range will be in the 3-6" range from this afternoon through Sunday night. Opted against a Winter Weather Advisory for Iron County at this time given the light snowfall rates.

Heading into this upcoming week, focus is on a Clipper that will be arriving Monday night and persisting into Wednesday. Recent runs of global ensembles indicate that there is still a decent amount of spatial variation when it comes to storm track. However, the general trend is that the low center will be moving through the CWA and keep heaviest snowfall rates in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Latest NBM snowfall probabilities show a 50+% chance for 2" or greater along and east of US-53 in both MN and WI. Best chances for higher amounts exceeding 4" will be along and near the North Shore above Silver Bay, with a 50-65% chance. Current expectations are that the Brainerd Lakes area will be seeing the least amount of snow, with only a 40-45% chance for 1" or more of snowfall from this mid-week Clipper.

Following the departure of the mid-week Clipper late Wednesday, warmer temps are favored for the latter half of the workweek as a ridge briefly builds over the central CONUS. High temps on Thursday increase into the upper 20s to mid 30s, with even warmer high temps on Friday in the mid 30s to mid 40s. This warm spell is likely to be short-lived though as another Clipper potentially arrives on Friday, accompanied by a surge of colder air heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR ceilings and flurries continue in the tip of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon, with VFR elsewhere as some dry air has moved in in the lower portions of the atmosphere. However, additional low-level moisture returns later this afternoon into tonight should bring a return of MVFR stratus along with sporadic flurry potential. Flurry potential will be highest this evening and tonight. Some BKN MVFR horizontal convective roll clouds look to develop late Sunday morning into evening, which could lead to additional scattered flurries. Winds remain northwest through the period, becoming gusty at times with wind strength gradually increasing late this afternoon into Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 351 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Winds remain northwest to northerly this weekend, strengthening this evening and remaining elevated for much of western Lake Superior into early Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect this evening into early Monday morning, as wind gusts increase to 25-30 knots. Waves will also be building up to 5 feet in the outer Apostle Islands in ice-free areas by Sunday afternoon. Expect winds to ease on Monday morning as winds become variable and eventually shift to the southeast by Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Monday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight CST Sunday night for LSZ141>146. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ148-150.