textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are expected to develop early this morning, then dissipate within a couple hours after sunrise.

- Quiet weather with highs a few degrees above normal today.

- A more active weather pattern for this weekend through Monday with periods of scattered showers and storms.

- Sunday and Monday may be the next chances for strong to severe storms, though the severe weather signals are not significant.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current Conditions/Friday:

An upper level low continues to churn over the northern Ontario keeping the region in northwest flow. At the surface we have high pressure that expands across Manitoba and through the Midwest. This combination will lead to mostly sunny skies with some diurnal cumulus building in during the afternoon. Overall, quiet weather conditions today with highs climbing into the 70s. Overnight, rapid radiational cooling may lead to areas of dense fog developing. If fog does develop it will quickly burn off after sunrise. Friday is also shaping up to be an inactive day. Surface high pressure begins to depart the region and we will see increasing cloud coverage moving in from the west late in the day. Expect highs to increase a few degrees from the previous day with a few spots getting into the low 80s.

Weekend:

The weather pattern turns active again for the weekend. Cross barrier flow over the Rockies will lead to a surface low pressure developing in the Northern Plains early Saturday morning. An increasing low level jet out ahead of this system may lead to some rain chances beginning early Saturday morning. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance still shows a high amount of variability in the QPF fields but leveraging the ensembles shows the best chances will be across our southern half of the CWA where the NBM is highlighting PoPs of 40-60%. Both the low pressure and low level jet weaken through the day, precipitation chances will persist but be on the downward trend.

Sunday looks to give us another dose of moisture. The GFS IVT would suggest that we should see an increase in available PWATs with contributions from the southern Pacific and possibly Baja. Early signals in the GEFs indicate this would put us near the 90th percentile of climatology. As this moisture overspreads the Northland we will have a few synoptic players to help generate some precipitation. However, placement and timing of key features remain in flux. The big picture looks to include a pair of surface lows moving over the Central and Northern Plains. The northernmost low may have a warm front draped across northern MN and promote some better rain chances. Strong to severe storm development remains questionable. Mid level flow will be strong enough to support some deep layer shear. There will also be seem steep mid level lapse rates in play leading to some favorable ingredients for large hail.

Early next week:

The weather pattern remains active as we head into the early portions of the work week. An upper level low moving across the Canadian Prairies will promote continued moisture advection across the area. Weather models depict several instances of impulses embedded in the flow aloft pushing through the region. There aren't any strong signals to really hone in on at this juncture but the chances to put more moisture into the soil will be most welcome, especially since portions of the CWA saw an expansion of the extreme drought status.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Calm to very light winds and radiational cooling under high pressure will lead to areas of fog development during the current overnight through early Friday morning, with fog dissipating towards 13-14Z this morning. Some dense fog will be possible, with the highest potential at HYR/HIB/BRD where LIFR visibility has been included with the 06Z TAF update. Visibilities may need to be adjusted further downwards with amendments. The remainder of the TAF period following the fog will be VFR conditions with light winds and increasing high clouds this afternoon and evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Southwesterly winds of 5 to 10 knots today will turn to out of northeast tonight with speeds around 5 knots. Rain chances return on Saturday with intermittent chances lingering into next week. No clear signals for severe storms just yet, but Sunday and Monday may have potential for strong to severe storms. Additionally, easterly winds will increase on Sunday and may prompt a Small Craft Advisory.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 329 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Low fire weather concerns. Surface high pressure expands across the midwest with diurnal cumulus today. Min RHs may drop into some upper 30s in NW WI but minimal winds are expected today. Tomorrow is slightly largely similar. We do start to see an active pattern that begins this weekend and may linger into late next week. Multiple chances for rain and thunderstorms through the period. No clear signals for severe storms just yet, but Sunday and Monday may be the best chances for strong to severe storms based on the latest model trends.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.