textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return Thursday into Friday across the Northland, highest in Northwest Wisconsin. A few snowflakes could mix in with rain early Friday morning.

- Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph develop Thursday night into Friday, especially for the Twin Ports to the North Shore.

- Possible near-critical fire weather conditions on Saturday due to very dry air and gusty southwest winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An area of stratus clouds across the Northland will slowly scatter and move out of the area today, with a fairly calm, nondescript day on tap.

Thursday, an upper level cut off low over the 4 Corners region will be pulled up into an upper level trough coming down from the Canadian Prairies. This is expected to generate a couple different areas of rainfall across the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. The first drops of rain should start to arrive through Thursday morning for the Northland, along a frontogenesis band. Through Thursday afternoon and evening, we should see the attending surface low pressure system move from southwest to northeast across Wisconsin and into the Great Lakes. This is expected to primarily bring rain to portions of NW WI in our CWA, with some light rain creeping into Minnesota. The general track of this system has trended back north in recent model runs, increasing the potential for a tenth to a quarter inch of rain or more in our Wisconsin counties. Into Friday morning, wrap-around precipitation following the aforementioned frontal area will push across the region from the more northern upper level disturbance. This will come with a good push of cold air and strong winds. Portions of the Arrowhead could see some snowflakes mix in, and wind gusts of 25-35mph are possible across the region. 850mb temperatures below 0C will lead to a large temperature gradient between Lake Superior water and near-surface air, likely leading to some lake enhanced precipitation Friday morning and afternoon on the South Shore as the system pushes east. Some of this lake effect could also have a couple snowflakes mix in.

Those northwest winds should diminish through the day Friday, with increasing high pressure pushing out any precipitation chances for the weekend. Saturday, that high pressure should bring in plentiful dry air, along with some gusty southwest winds. A combination of afternoon relative humidity dropping to near 25% and wind gusts of 20-30mph could lead to some near-critical to critical fire weather conditions.

An upper level shortwave passes to our north Sunday, but looks to mainly be a dry cold front for our area. Ridging appears to be the predominant pattern driver for next week, but a couple shortwaves might be able to sneak us some rainfall at times, though none are certain at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A MVFR to IFR cloud deck will continue to affect all terminal through this morning, expected to rise and scatter out through midday and into the afternoon. Conditions should then go to VFR. Light winds are expected through the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Northwesterly winds should continue to diminish through the day today. Overnight and into Thursday, winds become southwesterly and could get a bit breezy in the afternoon with gusts of 15-20 knots possible. A cold front passing across the region Thursday night into Friday will lead to a wind switch bringing a short, but strong period of northwesterly winds Friday morning. A Gale Watch has been issued Friday for all nearshore zones, with up to 40 knot gusts possible from 09-18Z. Those winds should steadily diminish through Friday afternoon and evening. Another period of strong southwesterly winds are possible across the lake Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Fairly moist and calm conditions are expected today and Thursday. Some areas of rain showers are possible through the day Thursday and Thursday night, most likely in Northwest Wisconsin. As that disturbance passes, some very strong northwest winds are expected Friday morning, peaking in the late morning to around noon, and then slowly weakening through the afternoon and evening. As drier air moves in Friday, we could see some areas of 30-40% minimum afternoon relative humidity overlapping with some gusts of 15-20 mph. Saturday will be another day to watch for fire weather concerns, as very dry air meets some gusty southwest winds. Minimum afternoon relative humidity could drop near 25% along with southwest winds gusting 20- 30 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for LSZ121-140>148-150.