textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible early this morning, with locally heavy rainfall and small hail possible.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly this afternoon and early evening. A few strong storms are possible. Hail up to ping pong ball size and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats from the strongest storms.

- A more summer-like pattern sets up for the end of the week into early next week with increasing moisture and temperatures before chances for storms return Sunday into the new week.

UPDATE.

Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A broad area of low pressure is centered south of Lake Manitoba this morning, with associated front stretching southward through western MN. A couple areas of showers and storms continue to rotate over the Northland ahead of the slowly approaching surface low and an upper level low. Storms have generally weakened over the last couple hours, and expect that trend to continue through the morning hours.

As the low system drops through the Northland today, additional showers and storms are expected. A few strong to severe storms are possible, especially this afternoon and early evening as lapse rates steepen ahead of and under the upper low, and instabilities strengthen (MLCAPE of 700-1000 J/kg) with daytime heating. Cannot rule out large hail with the stronger storms. The most likely area for any damaging winds will be over portions of northwest Wisconsin, as wind profiles and shear values (around 30kts of bulk shear) will be greater. Coverage will diminish with the loss of daytime heating this evening, as high pressure builds southward from central Canada.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Dry conditions are expected to prevail for Thursday and most of Friday with southerly return flow bringing near normal temperatures in the 70s along with increasing moisture. A weak shortwave may pass through late Friday and could lead to a few showers and thunderstorms.

An upper ridge moves through the Upper Midwest for Saturday into Sunday with warmer temperatures reaching into the 70s and 80s with ever increasing moisture. Models have diverged for the end of the weekend and into early next week. While there will be increased chances for storminess as the upper ridge moves to the east, timing and locations of the waves on the west side of the ridge remain nebulous. Given the heat, increasing moisture, and more of a summer pattern, strong to severe storms will be possible somewhere from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest heading into next week. PWATs look to reach 1.5" plus during this time, which would be above the 90th percentile for late June. This may lead to heavy rainfall at times, which is certainly needed given the increasing drought conditions in the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A couple areas of showers and storms are ongoing tonight, currently impacting only BRD. Isolated to scattered convection is possible overnight, and will carry VCSH at DLH and INL, the most likely terminals to see activity through sunrise. Expect cigs to lower through the night, with a combination of MVFR/IFR heights at all terminals. Cannot rule out fog and MVFR visibilities, mainly at DLH, HYR and BRD.

Some improvement of cigs is expected Wednesday morning. However, MVFR cigs remain likely through morning. Light and variable winds increase from the east to southeast at 5-8kts, with the exception of BRD, where winds will be from the west. As low pressure moves through the area, isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Expect an area from INL to DLH to HYR to be the main focus for development and will rely on VCTS for now to highlight that potential.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Northeasterly winds expected today at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect north of Taconite Harbor, where winds could gust to 25 kts. Winds will diminish to around 5 to 10 knots tonight. High pressure brings variable winds at 10 knots or less for Thursday before turning northeasterly for Friday at 5 to 15 knots, strongest near the Twin Ports. Fog is possible tonight into Thursday morning, with a 30% to 40% chance of visibilities less than one quarter mile.

A few showers or thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early evening. No strong or severe storms are currently expected, but gusty and erratic winds, small hail, and heavy downpours will be possible along with cloud-to-water lightning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, with greatest coverage expected this afternoon and early evening. Rainfall amounts will vary depending on where storms move with amounts in the 0.10 to 0.40 inch range through tonight. Isolated higher amounts to 0.50 to 0.75 inches will be possible in any stronger storms. With abundant cloud cover and periods of rainfall, afternoon RH values will remain well above 50% today. Drier conditions arrive for Thursday and Friday with afternoon RH values falling to around 40 to 45 percent with isolated areas as low as 35 percent, mainly in the Arrowhead. Winds will remain under 20 mph through the rest of the week outside of any storms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141.