textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light snow/rain showers taper off this evening.

- Colder than average temperatures expected again today and Thursday, and again this weekend. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s and low 30s through the week.

- There is a 20-40 percent chance of rain showers Thursday and again Friday night into Saturday, with a 30-50 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Severe weather is not expected. A few snowflakes may mix in Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1043 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cool start to May will continue to be the story across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin the remainder of this week. Under cyclonic flow aloft associated with a longwave trough and an unseasonably cool airmass with 850mb temperature percentiles near the bottom of the climatology, high temperatures today will only climb into the 40s across the Northland. A few rain and snow showers are expected within the low cloud cover as well. For tonight, widespread low temperatures in the 20s are forecast with weak surface high pressure. Depending on what low level cloud cover remains, a few locations could (20-30% chance) drop into the lower 20s and upper teens across northeast Minnesota for low temperatures by Thursday morning.

For Thursday, a stronger impulse embedded in the cyclonic flow will propagate across the region, supporting a 20-30 percent chance for rain showers during the day on Thursday. A few snowflakes may mix in during the morning given the cool start to the day.

Temperatures warm back to near normal on Friday as cyclonic flow eases some aloft and the coldest low level airmass moves into Canada. Friday could have near critical fire weather conditions given dry conditions and low relative humidity and westerly winds around 10-15 mph. Will coordinate with fire partners on fuel conditions and potential fire behavior.

The next shortwave and return of a chilly May airmass arrives this weekend to continue much of the same pattern that we have seen so far this month across the Northland. There is a 20-30 percent chance of rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning as impulses in cyclonic flow move across the region.

Looking ahead to next week, the cool pattern looks to relent some as the upper level flow pattern becomes more zonal. This would support a warm up to more normal temperatures next week. The next best chance for precipitation (30-50% chance) is Monday night into Tuesday with the arrival of a shortwave and Pacific moisture. A few thunderstorms are expected with some buoyancy. However, severe weather is not expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR ceilings with cloud bases between 4 and 6 kft are forecast tonight and Thursday as cold air aloft remains over the region. Diurnal heating will generate scattered rain and snow showers again Thursday. Given the scattered coverage, confidence in timing visibility reductions is less than 20%. Opted for VCSH for now. HYR and DLH have the best chance of brief MVFR visibility in snow showers Thursday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

West to southwest winds of 5-10 kts this afternoon, locally higher with gusts of 15-20 kts near the Twin Ports and from Grand Portage to Grand Marais. Waves of 2-3 ft are expected from Grand Portage to Grand Marais this afternoon and evening.

For Thursday, west to southwest winds of 5-10 kts for most zones, the exception being southwest at 15-20 kts from Taconite Harbor to Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Waves are expected to build to 2-4 feet from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Partly sunny on Thursday with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Winds will be from the west-northwest around 8-10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph. Afternoon minimum relative humidity is expected to fall into the 25-30 percent range for most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Scattered rain showers across much of the area on Thursday.

Friday will be warmer, with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s under mostly sunny skies. Afternoon minimum relative humidity is expected to fall into the 25-30 percent range for most of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be from the west-northwest around 8-10 mph with gusts of 15-20 mph. Near- critical fire weather conditions may develop over portions of northeast Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.