textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (20-30%) of light rain possible overnight through early Wednesday morning, across our southern counties. A few hundredths of an inch of rain expected.

- Warm and humid conditions return Thursday into the weekend with on and off chances for showers and storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A stalled front remains well to our south, with better rain and storm chances across southern MN into west central WI overnight. As a shortwave lifts northeastward over the front, light rain showers could spread into portions of the Northland, mainly across our southern counties. A dry layer below 700mb remains, which will make it difficult for heavier rainfall rates to reach the ground. A few hundredths of an inch can be expected from roughly Brainerd to Phillips through Wednesday morning. Cannot rule out patchy fog through sunrise north of the Iron Range, as temperatures are a bit cooler and cloud cover less dense. Dense fog is not expected.

The forecast through the rest of the week remains on track, with warm and humid conditions persisting with occasional rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Current Conditions:

Surface high pressure resides over the region this afternoon with a stalled out frontal boundary south of the Northland draped through southern MN and central WI. Despite the increasing clouds aloft the westerly winds across the region have helped temperatures climb into the upper 70s and mid 80s this afternoon. Winds are also slightly breezy with sensors reporting gusts in excess of 20 mph. After sunset we can expect winds to taper off and our overnight lows to cool into the 50s.

Wednesday:

Tonight and into Wednesday morning there will be a shortwave moving across the Upper Midwest. However, rain chances don't look overly impressive for our neck of the woods. The better chances will be further south closer to the stationary boundary. Some rain may be able to migrate into our southern counties. But looking at sounding profiles there is a significant dry layer below 700 mb that will drastically cut down on rain totals if not completely keep the surface dry. Any activity that does form will quickly move off and out of the region by late morning. Cloud coverage will decrease through the remainder of the day with highs in the 70s and 80s once again.

Late Week:

An upper level ridge builds over the Upper Midwest later this week. Despite the typical suppression that accompanies this feature, our weather pattern looks to turn slightly active. An upper level low over the southern Canadian Prairies will once again have an arching occluded front with an accompanying warm front through the Northland on Thursday. This will lead to continued warmth across the region with highs well above normal for this time of year reaching into the mid 80s. A resurgence of humidity will also stream back into the region with dewpoints climbing back into the 60s and 70s.

With the warm and moist air mass lingering across the region we will be keeping an eye on possible triggers for convection. The upper level ridge overhead will likely mitigate our typical air mass thunderstorms, but the aforementioned frontal boundary could provide enough forcing for storms to get going. There will also be several impulses aloft rounding the ridge that would aide in storm development. Placement and timing of said features still remains uncertain this far out but we will maintain some PoPs of 40-60% for the Thursday and Friday periods. Additionally, it is worth noting that the NCAR family of NWP convective hazards all depict a small chance of severe from the northwest corner of MN to SE near the Brainerd Lakes Region, which coincides pretty closely to where the deterministic guidance is painting the warm sector of the approaching weather system Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Mid and high level clouds are increasing across the Northland tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave. Heights remain VFR. Winds are currently light and variable at most sites, and will remain at less than 5kts through the forecast period.

Scattered light showers will spread northward overnight, remaining south of a line from BRD to HYR, and exiting to the east Wednesday morning. Most of this activity will stay south of forecast terminals, but there is a 15% chance of a shower at BRD and a 20% chance at HYR. Cigs will remain at VFR with this shower activity.

There is a low chance of fog around sunrise, mainly at INL and HIB, with MVFR vis possible.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Winds will continue to diminish overnight, with winds becoming light and variable Wednesday. Strong northeast winds return Thursday and will likely prompt another round of Small Craft Advisories. Additionally, the weather pattern turns slightly more active in the latter part of the week into the weekend with off and on showers and storm chances.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A shortwave will push northeast into the Northland overnight into Wednesday morning. Better rain chances will remain to our south along a stalled frontal boundary, but can't rule out some light rain across our southern counties through early Wednesday morning. Only a few hundredths of an inch of rain is expected. Light and variable winds will become northwesterly through Wednesday morning, but remain below 5mph.

Thereafter, fire weather concerns remain low, as we build back some higher dewpoints through the week with off and on rain/storm chances starting Thursday and lingering through the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.