textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally quiet weather is expected today through Wednesday night with minimal chances for precipitation.

- After a cold start this morning, there will be a gradual warming trend this upcoming week. Temperatures are expected to become unseasonably warm, with high temps increasing well above freezing.

- A more active pattern develops late in the week, with the potential for widespread precipitation. Depending on storm track, this could include a wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

March will be coming in like a lamb this year as high pressure moves into the area today. Skies have gradually been clearing early this morning as this sfc high pressure continues to propagate east- southeast into the Borderlands from southern Manitoba. As skies have cleared, temperatures have been plummeting with recent observations showing temps dropping into the single digits down to the teens to 20 below zero. Low temps this morning are forecast to be lowest in far north-central MN into the Arrowhead, where radiational cooling under clear skies has been persisting the longest. Low temps this morning will the coldest in the forecast period, ranging from around 0 degrees in the southern CWA to around -20 in far north-central MN into the Arrowhead. Since winds are light under the approaching high pressure, wind chills are expected to be within a few degrees of this morning's low temp.

An overall quiet pattern is expected to settle over the Northland today through much of the upcoming week. High pressure, which will bring mostly sunny to sunny conditions today, will move downstream this evening into tonight as a shortwave moves north of the CWA through Canada. The low pressure associated with this shortwave is expected to remain well to the north, but could still produce flurries in the far northern CWA late tonight into Monday morning. Only a trace of accumulation is expected.

For most of the upcoming workweek, split mid to upper level flow will largely keep low pressure systems both north and south of the CWA. The result of this synoptic lull will be little to no chances for precipitation into early Thursday. Zonal flow aloft is anticipated to provide gradual warm air advection into the CWA this week as a weak ridge builds over the Intermountain West. High temps Monday through Thursday will be on the warm side, with high temps increasing into the 40s to even some low 50s on Wednesday and Thursday. While daytime temps will be increasing above freezing, expect overnight lows to drop below freezing as diurnal cooling occurs.

Looking ahead to late in the week from Thursday into early Saturday, global ensembles continue to hint at the potential for a Colorado Low type track system moving into MN/WI. Uncertainty associated with this late week low pressure remains very high given very large spatial and temporal differences between the various ensemble members of the GEFS and ECMWF. Early indications show this system will be tapping into deep Gulf moisture, allowing for potentially heavy precipitation. It's worth noting that a non- negligible amount of ensemble members show this late week system missing our area entirely, so it's certainly not a slam dunk for widespread precipitation at this time. Regardless, this will be something to keep an eye on this upcoming week as all precipitation types, including rain, accumulating snow, and/or wintry mix, are potentially on the table.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

High pressure over the region will keep conditions VFR with light and variable winds today. An increase in moisture associated with low pressure moving through Canada tonight into early Monday morning will lead to increased cloud cover. This passing low pressure is also forecast to produce LLWS early Monday morning in the MN Arrowhead. This passing low pressure is also expected to produce gusty southwest winds in north-central MN towards the Iron Range early Monday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Fairly calm conditions are expected today under high pressure with generally northwest winds shifting to the southwest this afternoon. Southwest winds continue into Monday and are likely to increase as warm air surges into the area. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Monday for North Shore waters north of Taconite Harbor due to these increased southwest winds. There is also a 50-60% chance for gales in excess of 34 knots from Hovland to Grand Portage on Monday. A Gale Watch was issued from Grand Marais to Grand Portage due to the potential for gales on Monday. Expect winds to ease on Monday evening with calmer conditions returning on Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for LSZ140.