textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze conditions are expected tonight in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead.

- Rain is expected Saturday into Saturday evening, especially along the International Border.

- Another cold night with subfreezing temperatures expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Frost and sub-freezing temperatures down into the lower 30s will wrap up around 7 AM this morning across portions of Northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead. A cloudy day is in store today as an upper-level trough and surface low move across the upper Mississippi Valley. Initial rain showers moving over the International Border and Iron Range will encounter dry low-level air, with much of the early radar echoes falling as virga before the atmosphere saturates. Scattered rain showers will continue on and off throughout the morning and afternoon. Weak elevated instability along with precipitable water values hovering around an inch may generate a few more robust convective showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder. Severe weather is not anticipated. Rainfall totals will generally stay under a quarter of an inch, with many places seeing less than a tenth of an inch. Southerly winds will pick up today, gusting between 20 and 30 mph at times.

Precipitation will taper off tonight as the cold front moves through, yielding clearing skies from west to east. Cool and blustery post-frontal conditions take over on Sunday. Northwest winds will be gusty, particularly across the Arrowhead region where gusts of 20 to 30 mph are forecast. While some wraparound cloudiness and isolated sprinkles are possible early in the day, the region will stay predominantly dry with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s.

High pressure will build into the region Sunday night, setting up strong radiational cooling. Inland locations will see temperatures drop into the 28 to 32 degree range, bringing another widespread frost and freeze to the Northland. Areas immediately adjacent to Lake Superior and parts of the Brainerd Lakes area may remain slightly warmer. Southerly winds return on Monday with abundant sunshine, and a warming trend will push afternoon high temperatures into the upper 60s and lower 70s by Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak trough passing around mid-week will bring minimal rain chances before slightly cooler air settles in toward the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period, with chances for lowering conditions with rain showers this afternoon decreasing. Scattered showers will lead to showers either in the vicinity or over the terminal off and on throughout the day. So, opted for TEMPOs and PROB30s when rain is most likely to reach the terminals. Winds will increase while the rain passes, with southerly winds with gusts up to 20 kts throughout the afternoon. Winds will decrease briefly as they switch to the northwest after the front moves through.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

South winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots today will build waves to 1 to 3 feet on Western Lake Superior, requiring Small Craft Advisories for parts of the South Shore, Outer Apostle Islands, and Grand Marais. As a cold front moves through tonight, winds will shift to the west and northwest, remaining gusty up to 30 knots on Sunday with waves of 2 to 4 feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most nearshore waters through Sunday afternoon before high pressure brings lighter winds Sunday night into Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Light rain showers today will keep fire weather concerns low despite breezy southerly winds. A cold front passing tonight will lead to a dry and blustery Sunday, featuring northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph in the Arrowhead and relative humidity values dropping into the 35 to 50 percent range. Relative humidity remains low on Monday, but lighter surface winds will limit fire potential before warmer temperatures arrive mid-week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-021. WI...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ002-008-009. Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-140-141-145>148-150.