textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday, but lesser confidence than over the last few days.

- A very chilly night and widespread freeze tonight, then a gradual warming trend into and through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Satellite and radar imagery show quickly decrease coverage of light and widely scattered rain showers over north-cental Wisconsin this afternoon. For the rest of the day, northerly winds will quickly decrease from west to east as high pressure moves overhead tonight under a passing mid-level ridge.

Expect a wind shift to the southwest overnight, with winds actually increasing in speed as a southwesterly low-level jet builds over northern Minnesota early Saturday morning. This setup creates the lowest temperatures tonight in north-central Minnesota shortly after midnight, then stabilizing or actually increasing towards the dawn hours Saturday morning. Meanwhile, calm winds under strong radiational cooling for northwest Wisconsin will allow temperatures to continue to drop out into the mid to upper 20s tonight. Expect a hard freeze tonight, but the Duluth office has ended the frost and freeze headlines for the season given earlier widespread freeze conditions, so no headlines are in effect for this hard freeze.

Saturday will feature breezy southwest winds as drier air mixes down to the surface. The forecast continues to resemble about a 20 to 30th percentile of guidance for relative humidity tomorrow, which puts minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent in the forecast. These values are just above near-critical conditions and have actually trended upwards in recent forecasts, so no Special Weather Statements are in effect covering Saturday. However, folks should still be aware of an elevated fire weather risk Saturday mid-day to early evening due to the combination of this semi-dry air and breezy winds.

The pattern shifts to feature no precipitation and warming Sunday onward. Continued breezy southwest winds Sunday morning areawide will decrease in speed from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. High temperatures will continue their upward climb, and we will be back into the mid 60s for the next work week with predominantly dry weather dominating the Northland. The exception will be a couple of days of lake breezes keeping shoreline areas right at normal for mid-October.

Heading deeper into the next work week, the predominantly quiet and unseasonably mild weather remains locked in as an upper- level ridge anchors itself over the central portion of the Continent and two coastal low pressure systems remain over the Mid-Atlantic and California/Baja region. There are very low- end, 10 to 20 percent, chances of light rain late next work week as a ripple moving through the broad and warm upper- level ridge may occur. However, there is very low confidence on this scenario at this time, and dry conditions remain heavily favored.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Broken MVFR ceilings lift to VFR and slowly scour out in coverage late afternoon to early evening today. Expect the last few rain showers as well through 20Z today for inland north- central Wisconsin. The strong and gusty northerly winds early this afternoon decrease quickly from 20Z - 23Z today before mainly light and variable winds setup tonight. For those areas that do remain under 10 knots after 06Z tonight, a few hour period of low-level wind shear is forecast into sunrise hours Saturday morning as a southwest jet moves overhead. Winds begin to mix out from that southwest jet Saturday daytime for another breezy day, but from the southwest tomorrow.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 122 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Hazardous marine conditions are expected for small crafts from now through Sunday afternoon, the exception being a possible short winds tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening as gusts near 30 knots and elevated waves continue. Winds will subside briefly tonight before shifting to the southwest and increasing across Western Lake Superior again early Saturday morning. A few hour period of low- end Gale-force winds are possible off the Bayfield Peninsula so this will be monitored for any localized and short-duration Gale Warning needs Saturday morning....otherwise Small Craft Advisories are expected to be needed in time for Saturday. There is higher confidence on even stronger and more widespread southwest gusts of 25 to 35 knots are expected Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, very likely also necessitating additional Small Craft Advisories or Gale Warnings.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Strong northerly winds weaken this afternoon as high pressure centered over the Lower Midwest takes hold into the Upper Midwest. Drier air mixing down on Saturday will bring minimum relative humidity values of 30 to 38 percent. When combined with breezy southwest winds gusting to 22 to 28 mph, an elevated fire weather risk is possible Saturday mid-day into early evening. Minimum relative humidity recovers slightly to the 35 to 45 percent range on Sunday while gusty southwest winds continue. No rain chances and warming temperatures are expected to persist well into next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148- 150.