textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak system brings light rain this evening, with some snowflakes mixing in tonight over northern Minnesota.

- Cooler, near normal, temperatures return for the rest of the work week. Temperatures dip below normal this weekend.

- Cold air surges southward for the weekend, with chances of rain/snow Saturday and Sunday. At this time snow amounts appear negligible, less than a few tenths of an inch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A compact and fast-moving low pressure system will transit the region tonight and Wednesday. Considerable dry air aloft ahead of this system was noted on regional RAOBs this morning. Radar returns over the Northland are virga at the moment. Farther west in central North Dakota precipitation was reaching the ground. Expect the column to saturate from west to east this evening with light rain expected over the northern half of the area. A few snowflakes may mix in over portions of the Arrowhead where temperatures will be coldest. Rainfall amounts of a few hundredths to a few tenths are forecast. Areas generally south of a line from Hayward to Duluth to Cass Lake may stay dry. Winds will become gusty early Wednesday morning in the immediate wake of the surface low as cold air advection sets in and keeps the boundary layer mixed.

A surface ridge crosses the area Wednesday, with cold advection continuing under northwesterly upper level flow. This will bring temperatures down to seasonal norms, with highs in the 40s and lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday, and overnight lows in the 20s Wednesday night.

Upper level pattern remains active for the end of the week and the weekend. There will be a chance of rain and snow showers with the first clipper Thursday and Friday morning. That low pressure system will track near the Canadian border and most of the precipitation will fall in Ontario. Isentropic lift ahead of the surface low may produce some light rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening over northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Another upper-level trough will pass over the Northland Saturday and Sunday. Much colder air will push southward behind this system with weekend temperatures dropping to 8 to 12 degrees below normal. Highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 30s, with much of north central and northeast Minnesota remaining at or below freezing. Overnight lows will be in the teens and lower 20s. The colder temperatures will allow a potential for rain and snow Saturday, with a small chance of accumulating snow (around 10% of at least a tenth of an inch). Northwest winds and cold air advection will continue Sunday and Monday. Lake Superior surface water temperatures are in the 40s F (5 to 8 C). Temperatures at 850 mb will be around -13 C. Favorable upstream moisture will set the stage for lake effect snow showers over northwest Wisconsin early next week. There is about a 20 to 40 percent chance of an inch or more of accumulation over Ashland and Iron counties with lower probabilities farther west and south.

Yet another weak system may affect the area Tuesday and Wednesday next with with additional light precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A blanket of overcast skies engulf the region this evening with radar showing widespread light echo returns across ND into Northern MN. Conditions are currently VFR but as a low pressure system moves across the Midwest tonight expect ceilings to drop to MVFR and possibly IFR (40-60% chance) with light rain gradually mixing its way down to the surface. As the system passes we will see winds increase out of the northwest and become breezy through the early morning hours. Ceiling will begin to improve northwest to southeast through tomorrow morning with widespread VFR conditions expected by mid morning.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 326 PM CST Tue Nov 4 2025

A fast-moving clipper will bring gusty winds to western Lake Superior tonight and Wednesday. Winds will back northwesterly and wind speeds will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories were issued this afternoon for the nearshore waters starting with the North Shore, Outer Apostles, and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor at 4 AM and adding the remainder of the waters at 10 AM. Waves along the South Shore and Outer Apostle Islands will build to 2 to 6 feet. Wind and waves subside Wednesday evening as high pressure builds into the region. Another clipper will pass along the Canadian Border Thursday and Friday. Winds may become gusty both ahead of the low pressure system and in its wake. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed late this week. Much colder air will pour into the region Saturday and Sunday. Strong winds and building waves are expected in addition to lake effect snow showers. The strongest winds will be Sunday and Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-145>147. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>144-148-150.