textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/storms in northwest Wisconsin through the rest of this afternoon. The environment with these storms could favor a few funnel clouds or weak landspout tornadoes to form in north-central Wisconsin.

- Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Wednesday night. Totals from 0.5"-1.0" with locally higher amounts are forecast in the southern half of the Northland, with amounts decreasing with northward extent.

- Temperatures remain on the cool side through the week, then warming up a bit into the weekend. There is a 20-50% chance for additional showers and non-severe storms on Thursday afternoon and Friday, otherwise becoming mostly dry for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Rest of Today:

The surface low pressure in NE WI is exiting to our east this afternoon, with lingering scattered shower and non-severe thunderstorm activity mainly in NE WI also exiting to our east by this evening. These storms will remain sub-severe as only a few hundred J/kg of instability and weak shear are present. With that said, the presence of 50-100 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, cooler air aloft, and weak shear may support the development of a few funnel clouds or weak landspout tornadoes in north-central WI through the remainder of the afternoon.

A mix of clouds and sun are present in the Northland this afternoon with high temperatures forecast to top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, though slightly cooler along the North Shore and the Twin Ports immediately near Lake Superior. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph persist through early evening before becoming light towards sunset. Areas outside of NW WI and away from Lake Superior see minimum relative humidity values dip to the upper 20s to 40%, though some pockets of around 25% relative humidity can't be ruled out in spots across north-central MN through early evening. This combination of winds and lower RH could lead to pockets of elevated fire concerns, but widespread elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. RH recovers this evening and tonight.

Tonight - Thursday:

A robust fall-like clipper system will slide through the Upper Midwest tonight through Wednesday night, bringing scattered to widespread rain showers to much of the Northland. Deterministic and ensemble low pressure forecasts show the pressure dipping into the 986-992 mb range, being unusually deep for this time of year as highlighted by the forecast low pressure of less than the 1st percentile in the NAEFS CFSR climatology. Latest precipitation probabilities are 70-100% along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, and drop off to 20-50% north towards the International Border where intrusion of drier low-level air will be more persistent as the system moves through. Moderate to locally heavier precipitation amounts are possible in southern portions of the Northland with this system, with a widespread 0.4-0.8" forecast for the Brainerd Lakes east into Northwest Wisconsin. PWATs in excess of an inch in these areas combined with scattered thunderstorm potential and frontogenetic banding, particularly Wednesday afternoon into early evening, could produce localized pockets upwards of 1-1.5". Rainfall amounts diminish with northward extent towards 0.05-0.25" along and north of the Iron Range, and very limited accumulations around the International Border.

Regarding the storm potential Wednesday afternoon, high-resolution and ensemble low tracks largely keep the surface low track and most of the associated warm sector south of the Northland, and the severe chances along with it. However, as the surface low is tracking just to our south Wednesday afternoon, the surface warm front may work its way as far north as Pine County, MN, into inland NW WI, which could introduce a narrow corridor of 300-700 J/kg of MUCAPE. Model 0- 6 km bulk shear forecasts are fairly weak at this time--10 to 20 kt-- along with weak mid-level lapse rates and limited downdraft CAPE. As such, can't rule out a few strong storms with small hail or locally gusty winds, but the majority of any storms that develop Wednesday afternoon into early evening would be more general pulse storm modes. Precipitation becomes showers again after sunset Wednesday evening and largely comes to an end Wednesday night, though isolated shower chances linger into Thursday morning. Additional isolated, non-severe storms develop Thursday afternoon into early evening in the Arrowhead and NW WI as additional mid/upper- level shortwave trough energy moves through the area.

Otherwise, aside from showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday's weather will be marked by seasonably cooler temperatures and somewhat breezy daytime conditions out of the southeast to northeast on Wednesday and northwest on Thursday. Highs temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s are forecast on Wednesday and mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Strong onshore flow and building waves to 3-5 ft for Wednesday afternoon and evening is giving a high confidence signal for high rip current risk to develop for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will very likely be needed on Wednesday.

Friday - This Coming Weekend:

Northwest flow in the mid/upper-levels continues on Friday with shortwave troughing energy moving through forecast to bring additional chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and non-severe storms on Friday, with best potential for storms in the afternoon. Surface high pressure moving in for this weekend should keep the Northland mainly dry, but 10-20% chances for spotty diurnal showers cannot be completely ruled out. The Northland also sees a slight warming trend this weekend with high temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Some pockets of MVFR ceilings/visibilities with scattered showers and storms in northwest Wisconsin the rest of this afternoon, but potential is mainly south and east of HYR. VFR conditions expected elsewhere through this evening. A low pressure system passing just south of the area tonight through Wednesday will bring a return of widespread rainfall to the area. INL and BRD look to see rain shower activity first, and high-resolution model guidance even shows a 20-30% chance for isolated storms for a few hours mid to late this evening. Precipitation then spreads across the remainder of the terminals later tonight through Wednesday. Expect mainly VFR to MVFR visibility with the rain later tonight into Wednesday morning, though ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR at INL/HIB and IFR at DLH/BRD/HYR by early to mid-Wednesday morning. Also can't rule out some thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon near or just south of BRD to HYR, but that would primarily be after the end of the current TAF period. Breezy northwest winds to around 15-20 kts this afternoon become light and variable tonight, then increase out of the southeast to east on Wednesday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Primarily light and variable winds for today and tonight. East to northeast winds ramp up and become gusty on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes south of the area. Winds funneling into the head of Lake Superior will increase gusts to 20-30 kt for the afternoon and evening. Also can't rule out a 30% chance for brief gales near the Twin Ports, either. Wave heights also increase to 3-5 ft near the Twin Ports, as well. Given these hazardous conditions, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to the Apostle Islands for late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Showers and may accompany these strong winds at times on Wednesday. Winds become lighter Wednesday night with a wind shift to northwesterly following a cold front. Winds increase to 5-15 kt with gusts to 10-18 kt on Thursday, but hazardous conditions for small craft are not anticipated at this time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Low pressure exiting eastern Wisconsin is continuing to produce scattered showers and non-severe storms through the remainder of this afternoon, as well as some daytime scattered showers in far northern Minnesota. Min RH by late this afternoon dips to the upper 20s to 40% in northeast Minnesota, but can't completely rule out pockets of RH near 25% in north-central Minnesota. Higher RH is forecast for the rest of the afternoon in northwest Wisconsin. North to northwest with gusts to 15-20 mph continue through early evening before becoming light and variable tonight with RH recovering above 80%.

A rainy low pressure system tonight through Wednesday night is likely to bring 0.4"-0.8" of rain to the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin, though some pockets of up to 1-1.5" cannot be ruled out in those locations, either. There may be a fairly sharp gradient roughly along the US-2 corridor in northeast Minnesota where amounts of around 0.25" or less are expected. Areas near the International Border may even only see a couple hundredths to around 0.10" of rain. Severe weather is not expected, though a few strong storms with small hail and locally gusty winds could develop in Pine County to inland northwest Wisconsin Wednesday afternoon. Additional 20-50% chances for scattered, light showers and storms are possible Thursday afternoon and on Friday, but conditions become largely rain-free this weekend as surface high pressure moves into the region.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ143-146. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ147-150.