textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong low pressure system will bring heavy snow, gusty winds, and some blizzard conditions to parts of the Northland late this afternoon into Sunday night with some lingering snow into Monday.

- This will be an exceptionally rare and impactful storm for parts of interior northwest Wisconsin where snow totals around two feet and blizzard conditions at times are expected.

- Cold temperatures Monday morning with wind chills of -20F.

- Warmer temperatures on Wednesday and through the end of the work week with off and on precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current Conditions and Tonight's Weather: Mostly sunny skies are found across the region, except to our south where higher clouds are starting to stream in from the west associated with the incoming snowstorm. The main fgen snow band is expected to expand into the region from southwest to northeast tonight.

The Storm - Changes to the Setup: There have generally been minimal changes to this forecast; just minor tweaks to snowfall amounts and winds here and there. There are still some things in question, though. The exact location of the heaviest of the heavy snow from the deformation band is not completely certain, but will be most likely to hit Price County and those surrounding it the hardest with 2-3"/hr rates come Sunday morning. Low pressure is still expected to take a northeasterly deviation from its otherwise nearly due easterly path on Sunday as the upper level trough causing it to deepen becomes negatively tilted somewhere over the Quad Cities of IA/IL Sunday evening. As such, the deformation band will orient from West-to-East to Southwest-to-Northeast, leading to prolonged heavy snowfall over northern Wisconsin. There will be a fairly sharp cutoff to snowfall amounts to the north, but probably not as tight as previous storms that approach this magnitude since we won't have a high pressure center to our north funneling in very dry air.

The Storm - Changes to Expected Conditions: There are some forecast caveats for the northern extent of this storm. In the Twin Ports and northern Douglas County, we will have east to northeast winds for much of Sunday before they turn north to northwest as the low moves off Sunday afternoon/evening. CAMs continue to hint at a convergence band of snow streaming in off Lake Superior and affecting parts of the North Shore from Silver Bay and south into the Twin Ports and Douglas County. We will also have the potential for some lingering gravity wave snow over the usual places in Douglas/Bayfield counties into Sunday night as winds turn northwesterly and we hang on to some residual moisture and snow showers. The convergence band that should affect the Twin Ports should be fairly transient, so enhancement from this should be noticeable, but not extreme. Overall, we might see some snowfall rates to around an inch per hour at times, but not for the entire storm. We will therefore hang on to the Winter Storm Warning since snowfall rates are generally not expected to be extreme.

Elsewhere into northwest Wisconsin, we have decided to upgrade Winter Storm Warnings to Blizzard Warnings. This is exceptionally rare for interior northwest Wisconsin. For historical context, Burnett and Washburn counties have never been warned for blizzard conditions and Sawyer and Price counties have only been warned once for blizzard conditions in the past ~20 years. What triggered the upgrade is the expected combination of very heavy snowfall rates that may meet or exceed 2-3" per hour at times Sunday morning combined with widespread wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range. There is some uncertainty on where exactly the heaviest of those snowfall rates will be, but most likely this will land in Price County and into Sawyer/southern Ashland/Iron counties. This may extend west into Price county. There is expected to be a little displacement in the heaviest snow and winds such that the heaviest snowfall rates are expected later tonight into Sunday morning, then as winds switch to more northerly, wind speeds will pick up and lead to plenty of blowing snow as the snowfall rates start to taper off. With that said, there should be several hours where blizzard conditions will be met for many places that have been upgraded. Some places may not see true blizzard conditions or just see them briefly, but we expect conditions to be close enough for most folks to refer to this storm as a blizzard. While snowfall rates are generally not expected to be as intense in Bayfield/Douglas counties for most of this storm, lingering gravity wave and convergence snow banding would correspond better with the strong winds midday Sunday into the afternoon there, so blizzard conditions are quite possible.

Total snowfall amounts from this storm are expected to be very high, with totals around two feet in Price County and surrounding areas. It's definitely possible that some higher amounts could be observed approaching 30 inches.

No major changes have been made for the forecast for the rest of Minnesota. Headlines will remain as they were from the last update.

Late Sunday night into Monday - Wrapping up the Storm: Wraparound snow and some lake-enhancement along the South Shore are expected to persist through Monday morning. Northwest winds will still be gusty, but should start to lessen gradually through the day. A few inches of additional snow accumulation are expected especially Monday morning before it wraps up going into the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday through Friday: Expect some cold northwesterly flow for this time of year, keeping temperatures below freezing and definitely feeling like winter Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing Monday night with wind chills down into the teens and 20s below zero, especially north. At this time, it looks like we may be just warm enough not to need cold weather headlines, but it's possible that could change.

A quick-hitting clipper could bring some light snow (probably an inch or two) around Tuesday evening. Warm air advection and broad ridging behind this is looking promising to bring spring weather back to the Northland by the end of the week. We should see highs in the 40s and possibly approaching 50 by Thursday and Friday. With the fresh snow and quick transition back to warmer weather, some minor hydro concerns may develop with ponding of water and some rises in rivers and streams. We will also go back to the diurnal freeze-thaw cycle, which should result in slick spots overnight and during the mornings as snow and ice melt and refreeze.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon before condition begin to deteriorate this evening and overnight as a strong low pressure system moves across the region. Winds less than 10kts as of issuance time will turn to the east/southeast today ahead of the next storm system. That system arrives this evening, with winds increasing with gusts of 30kts or more beginning around 12z and continuing through the end of the TAF period. Light snow spreads from west to east across central MN into WI with MVFR ceilings, beginning around 15/00z. Conditions deteriorate after 15/06Z, with moderate to heavy snow, strong winds, and LIFR visibilities for BRD, DLH and HYR, with MVFR/IFR to the north. Ceiling forecast is currently for MVFR, but IFR is certainly possible.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A strong low pressure system will be moving across the Midwest late Saturday through Sunday and will lead to a prolonged period of gales across Lake Superior. There is a 30% chances of seeing storm force winds up near Grand Portage early Monday morning as the winds turn more northerly. Gales will eventually subside west to east late Monday but Small Craft Advisories will likely need to follow them for a time as both winds and waves subside.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ020. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ025-035. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ033-034-036. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ037. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for MNZ038. WI...Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-006-007. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ002-008-009. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140. Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ142. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142- 147-148-150. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146.