textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, warming conditions are expected for the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s over the weekend and mid 40s to 50s next week.

- A larger low pressure system will bring increasing precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday next week, with rain being the favored precipitation type given well-above normal temperatures.

- Another potential system could move through the region next weekend bringing a mix of rain and snow.

UPDATE

Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

High pressure has moved into the area and has cut off lake effect snow and thinned stratus cloud cover during the day. What stratus is present, mostly in Iron and Price counties, will linger throughout the night before dissipating as well throughout the day Saturday. Otherwise, still expecting dry weather throughout the weekend and into next week with the warm up into the 50s early next week. The low pressure system that is expected to bring precipitation chances to the Northland Wednesday night and Thursday has shifted north within the global models, which is in line with the uncertainty mentioned in the full discussion this afternoon.

We're also tracking a potentially impactful system next weekend. Ensembles feature precipitation chances next Saturday and Sunday over the Upper Midwest. Temperatures appear to start out above normal, though there is sufficient cool air over the Canadian Prairies during that time to support a rain/snow mix. As of this morning there appears to be a small potential for measurable snow somewhere in the Northland, though model guidance varies between no snow to a focus in north-central Minnesota, to portions of central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Current conditions/Tonight:

Surface high pressure has set up residency over the Northland and will be a mainstay through the weekend and early next week. Satellite shows the morning stratus burning off across northern MN with ongoing lake effect snow showers continuing across the UP and advecting west. Our 850 mb temps still remain around -8C which leads to lake induced instability of around 200 J/kg. Current surface dewpoint depressions over the South Shore are around 8-10F which is too dry for precipitation. But upstream where some greenish hues can be depicted in the day cloud phase RGB show dewpoint depressions are on the order of 1-3F with ongoing snow. This activity should cross over into Iron and Ashland late this afternoon before dry synoptic air and a wind shift shuts the process down this evening. Minimal accumulation expected.

Weekend - Mid Week:

Quiet weather period as upper level ridge sets up over the Upper Midwest through an extended period. Temperatures will gradually be on the upwards trend with highs ascending into the 50s by Wednesday. For context, normal highs for this time of the year are in the upper 30s. Current NBM guidance even has some record breaking warm lows for Thursday with values in the low 40s.

End of next work week:

Weather pattern shift does not look to arrive until late Wednesday into Thursday as troughing in the west finally pushes the upper level ridge out of the region. Forecast trends continue to slow the advancement of these synoptic features as well as push the associated surface low farther north. As such, NBM PoPs continue to be delayed with 30% chances returning late Wednesday into Thursday. Given the strong dry air in place and the inconsistency of model to model runs confidence remains low in the timing and placement of rain returning to the Northland.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions and light winds are forecast for the period. LAMP guidance hints at a small chance of low stratus or fog development at HIB, INL, and DLH early this morning. Probabilities are generally less than 10 percent.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Surface high pressure will remain in place for the weekend, leading to north to northwest winds less than 15 kts for Saturday and most of Sunday. On the back side of the high pressure Sunday night, winds switch to the southwest and increase to around 25 knots across much of western Lake Superior and waves increase to greater than 4 ft along the North Shore early Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds diminish Wednesday before potentially strengthening again Thursday. Another period of hazardous conditions may develop next weekend as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

No fire weather concerns. High pressure will remain over the region for the weekend and into next week. Temperatures increase early next week with high temperatures in the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RHs will remain above 45% for this weekend into next week as well. Winds will increase out of the southwest late Sunday and into Monday, with gusts reaching 20-25 mph Monday afternoon.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.