textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather conditions in Koochiching / North Itasca counties this afternoon.

- Showers today, then widespread rain tonight through Monday night. Rainfall amounts around 1-1.5 inches and localized minor flooding is possible.

- Thunderstorms are possible with the rain on Monday. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible mainly in northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures trend cooler for the rest of the week, then warmer next weekend with generally quiet weather.

UPDATE

Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

It is raining this morning. This quasi-stationary front rain has been falling with intensity and locations pretty much as forecast. Rainfall observations in southwest Minnesota have ranges from about 2 to 5 tenths of an inch, and that's approximately what we can expect here from Brainerd to the Arrowhead by midday today. We will lose frontogenesis today, and thus showers will become pretty scattered.

Expect plenty of clouds out there today with the exception of far north-central Minnesota. RH could fall to around 25% there, leading to near-critical fire weather conditions.

Tonight, a Colorado low is expected to move northeast and pass through the northern Midwest and over Lake Superior Monday night. The forecast is still on track for a pretty widespread rainmaker with ensembles still in good agreement for widespread ~1-1.5" amounts for pretty much all of the region. There could be some locally higher or lower amounts. Convection isn't expected to play a huge role with this system, but there could be a brief window Monday afternoon and evening where just enough instability could sneak its way into northwest Wisconsin to produce a stray strong to severe thunderstorm or two. At this point, we're only looking at a ~5% chance at seeing any severe weather, and quarter size hail will be the threat if anything. Elsewhere, there could be some embedded thunder with the rain, but overall we're looking at a pretty steady moderate, soaking rain with perhaps some brief heavier bursts.

As we've had some minor flooding with the rain over the past few days, we'll have similar concerns with this next round. Fortunately, most of the snow up in the Arrowhead looks to have melted by now (though there could still be a little bit in the woods). So this will be less of a rain-on-snow issue than the previous event, possibly with some exception in the very tip of the Arrowhead. But with that said, the previous rain event and rain ongoing right now will precondition the soils such that there could be some runoff with the next round of rain. We are also not looking at very impressive rainfall rates with Monday's rain. They should be, for the most part, well less than a quarter inch per hour, so flash flooding isn't expected. While most of the "flashy" rivers/streams in the Arrowhead are seeing falling stream levels, the South Kawishiwi River near Ely is slowly going up slowly as rain water slowly makes its way downstream. Right now, the RFC forecast keeps it in action stage, but it wouldn't be surprising if it could just barely make it to minor flood stage for a while following Monday's rain. So in general, we're looking at another localized minor flooding possibility, and the Arrowhead (North Shore and over into the Rainy River Basin) will have the best chances for seeing any impacts. Confidence isn't high enough at this point to issue any flood watches, but a few hazards could eventually be needed.

As low pressure moves northeast Monday night, winds will become breezy from the northwest and rain is expected to end from southwest to northeast Tuesday morning, leading to some clearing skies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Rest of Today - Sunday:

A weak cold front has moved into NE MN with cloud cover gradually increasing across the area. Model soundings and surface observations show stubborn low-level dry air across much of the Northland, which is resulting in much of the precipitation appearing on radar evaporating before it reaches the ground. The exception is central MN and locations back into SW MN which is in the better ribbon of moisture at the moment. As we progress into this evening and tonight, shortwave energy will interact with the cold front that will become a stationary boundary and bring light rain/pockets of moderate rain to the Northland, lingering into Sunday morning, though patchy rain shower chances may linger at times through daytime Sunday. Instability remains very low to zero with this rain, so while a few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out tonight, they should be few and far between at best. Rain amounts have trended slightly upwards, with 0.25-0.5" forecast for the Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and into the MN Arrowhead. Amounts taper off to 0.1" or less in far north-central MN and east of the St. Croix River valley in NW WI outside of the main rain band.

Far northern St. Louis County down into the I-35 corridor has seen drier relative humidities develop this afternoon before the more prominent cloud cover moves in, with relative humidity as low as the 23-30% range. Other locations in the Northland have remained slightly less dry. With wind gusts generally 15 mph or less in these drier areas, near-critical fire weather conditions remain limited in scope.

Easterly winds and a lake breeze off of Lake Superior and lingering cloud cover many portions of the Northland on Sunday should tamper down high temperatures to the mid/upper-40s near Lake Superior to low/mid-50s farther inland. Only portions of inland NW WI and Koochiching County appear to have high temperatures touch 60 to the lower 60s where cloud cover will be less and the lake breeze doesn't reach. Portions of far north- central Minnesota could see afternoon relative humidity dip down to around 25-30%, so we will need to watch that area for near- critical fire weather potential despite lighter winds.

Sunday Evening - Tuesday:

Lee cyclogenesis will develop a Colorado Low late Sunday will quickly move northeast and strengthen, tracking northeast through Iowa/southern MN by midday Monday, north-central/NW WI by Monday evening, and exiting into Ontario daytime Tuesday. This track has trended slightly farther southeast over the past 24 hours. This system will bring a surge of moisture with origins in the western Gulf and modified moisture from Baja California. Latest NAEFS PWAT percentiles still reach the 90th percentile (around 0.8-1.2" of PWATs) for Monday through Monday night for much of the Northland, highest near the surface low center track in NW WI. Broad support for parcel ascent with good synoptic forcing should aid in development of rain with this system as it moves through the region starting Sunday evening in north-central MN, becoming more widespread Sunday night into Monday, and ending SW to NE Tuesday morning as the low pressure system exits. Some non-severe thunderstorm activity is also possible Monday afternoon and evening from the Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports and areas southeast. The southeast trend in the surface low pressure track should keep the primary warm sector of this system and attendant severe storm threat south of the area, with most of the Northland seeing this rainfall as more stratiform in nature for much of the event.

While rain rates could be higher for a time Monday afternoon and evening with any thunderstorms, mostly stratiform rain should keep rates on the more moderate side. However, given the prolonged timeframe of rainfall, saturated soils, and elevated river/streamflows from previous rainfall and snowmelt in the eastern Rainy River Basin and the North Shore/South Shore rivers, additional rainfall from this system could produce some minor areal and stream/river flooding. Rainfall probabilities are 60-90% across the Northland for at least 1" with this system, with probabilities of >2" at 10-30% in the Brainerd Lakes, St. Croix River Valley, and North Shore, and less elsewhere. Overall, a more widespread soaking rain for many locations.

Mid - Late Next Week:

A slightly cooler and generally drier northwest flow pattern aloft sets up mid to late next week. While there will be periodic shortwave energy aloft in this pattern, moisture availability is generally lacking. Therefore, we have kept periodic precipitation chances at 20% or less for Wednesday through next Saturday. The Tuesday through Friday timeframe will also be slightly below average with daily highs in the upper 40s to 50s (warmest south) and lows around or just below freezing. Surface temperatures do appear to trend up a bit starting next Saturday as the pool of colder 850 mb temperatures exits east of our area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Lingering rain this morning is expected to decrease in coverage and intensity through the morning. Ceilings have largely been more VFR than expected, and that may mean that VFR ceilings will be predominant with just temporary periods of MVFR ceilings this morning. DLH is an exception, where onshore and upslope flow will keep MVFR and temporarily IFR conditions through today. There is potential for a bit of convection which could perk up some showers this afternoon, with the best potential at BRD/HIB and possibly DLH. Confidence is not high on exact timing or placement, but these showers could result in temporary MVFR visibility. Later tonight, low pressure approaches from the southwest and widespread rain along with breezy east winds are expected to develop. Expect a gradual decline to MVFR and IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities. LLWS is likely for many terminals as well, mainly after 06z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Winds will eventually become northeasterly today and slowly increase in speed ahead of approaching low pressure. Wind gusts rising to around 25 kt are expected for the North Shore, Twin Ports, Bayfield Peninsula, and Outer Apostle Islands starting Sunday night and through Monday evening with gusty northeast winds. Waves will rise into the 3-6 ft range as well. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for those areas. Winds may very briefly slow down as low pressure passes through Monday night, followed by gusty northwest winds going into Tuesday. Additional Small Craft Advisories will be needed into Tuesday, and there is a ~30-50% chance that there could be a brief period of gales along the North Shore Tuesday morning. Winds gradually slow down Tuesday night. Through all of this, expect widespread rain and perhaps some thunderstorms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Most of the region will see clouds and showers today, keeping RH above 40 percent. In Koochiching and inching into northern Itasca county, sunshine is expected for the majority of the day, and RH is expected to fall into the 20-30% range, leading to near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon and early evening. Winds will be on the light side. Widespread rain is expected tonight through Monday night, so there will not be any fire weather concerns aside from the possibility of some thunder and lightning at times. As skies clear behind the rain on Tuesday, RH may fall in the 30-40% range with blustery northwest winds. Min RH is looking similar through the rest of the week with mainly quiet weather. We may see subtle drying through the week, but with rain expected, there are no major fire weather hazards anticipated.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>145. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ146- 150.