textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible early this morning, mainly for northwest Wisconsin.

- For this weekend and into next week, temperatures will be near to below normal across the Northland with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with sporadic, near daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms.

- Widespread severe weather is not expected through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk, level 2 out of 5 risk, for much of northwest Wisconsin for this afternoon and into the early evening. A Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5 risk, extends into the I-35 corridor in Minnesota. The biggest question is how much heating will occur across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon with a combination of both low level cloud cover beneath the cap, and anvil spreading across from storms further south in Minnesota. The longer this cloud cover holds, the less buoyancy will build which will limit the severe thunderstorm threat. If clouds are able to dissipate some, MLCAPE values on the order of 1500-2000 j/kg could materialize across northwest Wisconsin with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s ahead of the cold front. Effective deep layer shear of 25-30kts will be sufficient for some organized convective structures. However, this modest shear will place somewhat of a limit on storm organization, intensity and the hazards. Primary threats include large hail to ping pong ball size, damaging winds to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. The time of the peak threat in northwest Wisconsin looks to be between 21Z and 00Z (4pm-7 pm CDT).

For the rest of the forecast for this weekend and into next week, quasi zonal flow is favored across the lower 48. This overall large scale flow pattern favors near normal temperatures with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. The main storm track is favored to remain south of the Northland, however, low predictability impulses embedded in the faster flow aloft and daytime heating would present a near daily, sporadic coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms (isolated to scattered coverage). Overall, with limited buoyancy, severe weather is not likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Patchy fog has developed across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin early this morning with light winds and high relative humidity due to rainfall on Friday. Several locations have been getting intermittent fog with visibilities of a mile or less, but only KHYR and KHIB have been included. This fog should linger for another couple hours, then burning off to VFR conditions by mid morning today. VFR conditions are forecast on Saturday with a cumulus field developing with cloud bases above 5kft. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop after 00z Saturday over northern Minnesota. These should gradually shift east-southeast overnight. For now I have included a -SHRA group for KHIB and KDLH where precipitation is most likely. Have added a VCSH group to KINL and KBRD as they should be the next most likely sites.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Patchy fog early this morning will dissipate by mid-morning. Southwest winds will increase today, reaching 10 to 15 knots with afternoon gusts 20 to 25 knots along the North Shore. This may necessitate Small Craft Advisories north of Taconite Harbor as waves build to 2 to 4 feet. Winds become lighter and shift to the northeast and east for Sunday. Scattered showers and storms are possible tonight through Monday, but widespread severe storms are not expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Sunny and dry conditions are expected today with minimum relative humidity values dropping to 35 to 45 percent, with the lowest values over the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. West winds will remain modest at 5 to 10 mph. Humidity recoveries improve tonight and Sunday as moisture increases. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and then slide slowly east-southeast overnight into Sunday morning. Minimum relative humidity will rise to 45 to 55 percent on Sunday with northwest winds up to 10 mph. Rain chances to persist into Sunday into Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.