textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light snow/flurries continue today, lingering longest in northwest Wisconsin into this afternoon. Less than one half of an inch of additional accumulations expected.

- High temperatures in the single digits above and below zero and low temperatures in the single digits to teens below zero for most of the Northland through the rest of the work week. We warm back to climatological averages this weekend.

- Chances for snow remain low (less than 20%) mid to late this week before light snow chances (30-40%) may return Saturday night and Sunday. The exception will be off and on light lake effect snow lingers through the work week for the South Shore.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Current Conditions and Today:

The center of the surface low pressure from the Clipper system is now into eastern Lake Superior as of 130 AM CST this morning. We are still seeing some cold air advection/horizontal convective rolls of light snow in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin behind the departing system during the current overnight hours, with visibility occasionally reduced to 1-3 miles. Expect this activity to continue into the morning hours while gradually decreasing in intensity, but linger mainly as flurries in Wisconsin this afternoon as drier air starts to work in behind the Clipper.

Gusty northwest winds persist throughout today, being strongest this morning at 20-30 mph for most locations, which may lead to patchy areas of blowing snow due to the finer consistency of the recent snowfall. There is also a signal for some enhanced downslope winds along the North Shore this morning that could push gusts up to 35-40 mph there. When combined with low temperatures in the single digits below zero to around -10F this morning, the winds should create wind chills of -20F to -30F in northeast Minnesota and -15F to -25F in northwest Wisconsin. Pockets of wind chills down to -35F are possible in the Arrowhead around and shortly after sunrise this morning, but are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant issuing a Cold Weather Advisory. Temperatures warm into the single digits above zero this afternoon.

Wednesday - Friday:

We stay colder than is typical for late January through the rest of the work week, though not as cold as the recent frigid temperatures. Expect high temperatures in the single digits above and below zero each day and overnight lows in the single digits to teens each night into morning through Friday. Wind gusts generally remain under 20 mph each day for Wednesday through Friday, so minimum wind chills each night/morning will mostly bottom out in the teens to 20s below zero. Can't rule out a few pockets of -30F to -35F in northeast Minnesota, but widespread wind chills of colder than -30F are not expected at this time. We will continue to monitor for if any Cold Weather Advisories may be needed through the rest of the work week.

As for precipitation, snow chances remain at or under 20% for the remainder of the work week. A retrograding upper-level low over Hudson Bay midweek will eventually bring an inverted shortwave trough the Northland late Thursday into Friday morning, but looks to be moisture starved as it moves through (PWATs only ~0.05 inches). Can't rule out some stray, light snow/flurries as this system passes through, but impacts/accumulations should be minimal to nil. Outside of that system, the only snow chances in the Northland through the end of the work week will be off- and- on light lake effect snow showers for the South Shore given northwest to northerly winds throughout.

This Weekend - Early Next Week:

Strong surface high pressure slides south out of Manitoba into the Upper Midwest/High Plains daytime Friday and Saturday, which should keep non-South Shore portions of the Northland snow-free during that timeframe. This high pressure moves off to the south/southeast late Saturday, paving the way for a weak Alberta Clipper to move through the Upper Midwest either Saturday night into Sunday or Sunday into Sunday night. There is still a decent amount of spread on the timing of that system, but it would bring the next decent chance (30-40%) for light snow to the Northland. NBM probabilities of >=1" of snow for that timeframe are also only 15-30%.

A substantial shift to near or even slightly above average temperatures are in store for this weekend into early next week, with highs in the teens to 20s by Saturday and widespread 20s for Sunday into early next week. Lows will also be much warmer in the single digits above zero to around 10F starting Saturday night and continuing each day into early next week/the start of February.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Satellite and radar continue to show scattered to broken MVFR ceilings and intermittent, light MVFR snow showers early this morning for HIB/DLH/HYR. The snow activity should drift off to the southeast of these terminals by mid to late morning. The next round of MVFR stratus moves south into the area beginning around 13-15Z at INL, then expanding south into HIB around 16Z, DLH around 18Z, and into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Medium confidence that BRD may be just on the southern extent of the MVFR ceilings and stay more scattered MVFR cloud bases today. Expect the MVFR ceilings to scatter out later this afternoon/evening, but possibly hang on a bit longer at HYR (40% chance to linger through the end of the TAF period). Some lingering low-level saturation may keep scattered MVFR-level cloud bases persisting through tonight, but the signal for BKN or higher coverage MVFR ceilings has been decreasing for most terminals for this evening and tonight. Gusty northwesterly winds gradually back westerly today, with weakening winds for most terminals this evening and tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 219 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Gusty northwest winds persist today and this evening, maintaining hazardous conditions for small craft. Elevated waves in the Outer Apostle islands of 3-6 ft in ice-free areas will also produce heavy freezing spray into this morning. There remains a signal for near-gale force wind gusts from Silver Bay to Grand Portage this morning (6 AM to around Noon CST timeframe) where periodic gusts to 35 kt will be possible. If this signal increases, a short-fuse Gale Warning may be needed. Northwest wind gusts largely fall below 20 kts tonight and Wednesday and then veer to northerly for Thursday and Friday. At this time, there does not appear to be any coherent widespread signal for conditions hazardous to small craft beginning Wednesday and persisting through this weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>146- 148-150. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ150.