textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather with highs a few degrees above normal today.

- A more active weather pattern for this weekend through Tuesday with periods of scattered showers and storms.

- Sunday and Monday may be the next chances for strong to severe storms, though the severe weather signals are not significant.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current Conditions:

Another quiet day across the region with surface high pressure slowly departing through the day. Satellite already shows increasing cloud cover spilling over from the west as the upper level ridge begins to flatten. The late arrival of the clouds plus the return of southerly winds will see temperatures a couple degrees higher today than yesterday with highs in the 70s and a few spots climbing into the low 80s.

Weekend:

Friday night cross barrier flow over the Rockies leads to the development of a surface low pressure over the Northern Plains. This system is projected to slide across SD and into southern MN with a strong low level jet ramping up through the early morning hours. The Northland should find itself on the tip of the nose of the jet which will promote some scattered showers and storms across our southern counties. The better forcing and dynamics for more robust activity stays to our south with the REFS keeping our precipitation totals fairly minimal and generally less than 0.10" If a storm does manage to develop expect some locally higher amounts. The orientation of the low level jet will ween itself out of the area through the day Saturday with the overall strength decreasing as well. We will still maintain some low end PoPs of 20-30% to account for the isentropic lift across the area but overall expect coverage and activity to decrease as it shifts to the west through the afternoon.

Models still remain in flux for Sunday's synoptic set up with the latest showing quite the decrease in PoPs. The warm front that was originally forecasted to be draped across northern MN has drifted much farther north leaving the Northland in the gap between systems. The GFS IVT also highlights the southern Pacific moisture tracking to our south and being wrapped up with the southern low moving across the Midwest. Overall, the PoPs have been decreased down to 20- 30% and based on the latest CAMs and soundings it wouldn't be too surprising if that downward trend continues in subsequent forecast packages.

Early next week:

An upper level low matures over the Canadian Prairies late Sunday into early next week and will likely bring out next round of precipitation to the Northland. With the deepening low to the north and a secondary low moving across central MN we will see an occluded front draped over the region and pushing east through Monday. A strengthening upper level jet will increase deep layer shear. The area will also sport some MUCAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg. Pairing these two we could see some strong storms develop. Will wait for more consistent model runs before diving into more details of threats and timing.

Tuesday's forecast is highly dependent on the progression of the frontal boundary on Monday. The GFS would suggest that it stalls out over NW WI while the Euro sags it further south out of our CWA. Both models do highlight a shortwave trough that will be entering from the west that day, so depending on where the front lies there will be additional rain and storm chances along the boundary.

Wednesday looks like a brief pause in the rain chances as high pressure moves over the region. This is fairly short lived as ensembles highlight another shortwave moving across the Northern Plains for Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Surface high pressure is departing the region today with high clouds beginning to filter in from the west. Overnight precipitation chances will increase west to east with the best chances for our southern terminals. Additionally few embedded storms will be possible in the early morning hours, but severe weather is not expected. Ceilings will drop to MVFR with this passing system.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Light easterly winds today as high pressure departs the region. these winds will turn northeasterly tonight but remain light. The head of the Lake and the South Shore waters may see some rain and thunderstorms early tomorrow morning and into the afternoon. No severe weather expected. Sunday afternoon northeasterly winds increase and will likely lead to a Small Craft Advisory being needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Low fire weather concerns continue. High pressure departs to day with increasing cloud coverage from the west. Rain chances return late tonight across the southern half of the CWA. A few storms will be possible through the early morning hours but not expecting any severe weather at this time. The active weather pattern holds through the weekend and into Tuesday as multiple systems bring rain chances. The best chances look to be late Sunday into Monday as a frontal boundary moves in from the west. Despite the active pattern, rain totals will be spotty in nature and largely less than 0.25". Areas that see thunderstorms will have locally higher totals.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.