textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers across the region will taper off this evening.

- An Alberta Clipper moves through tomorrow bringing widespread 1-2" of snow. Higher amounts for the northern Douglas and Bayfield 2-5"

- Lake effect snow showers ramp up again for the Iron county late Sunday through Monday. Totals keep trending up and may warrant a Winter Weather Headline.

- Arctic air returns Monday morning with Cold Weather Advisories across the region. This cold air linger through the work week with high temps largely remaining in the single digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Current Conditions/this evening:

The low pressure that has been bringing our off and on snow showers for the past couple days has shifted over to eastern Ontario this afternoon. Northerly flow over the North Shore terrain that lead to a gravity wave over the South Shore has since weakened prompting the early cancellation of the Winter Storm Warning. The other snow area of interest is Iron County. Lake effect snow showers from these northerly winds are still impacting the area. As winds turn more westerly this activity will migrate into MI this evening. Overnight our lows drop below zero, but with the persistent wind the temperatures is going to feel closer to -15F to -20F.

Sunday Clipper:

An Alberta Clipper is set to drop southeast through southern MN bringing another shot of snow to the region. Snowfall amounts look to be on the light side with most the region staying less than 3 inches of snow. By the time the system makes it into the Northland it seems to be a bit moisture starved with PWATs around 0.15-0.20 inches. Overall, looks like a low QPF event but there are a few pitfalls when it comes to SLRs. Thermal profiles show a pronounced dry slot Sunday morning that will need to saturate out before snow can hit the surface. Afterwards,the profiles are pretty close to isothermal through the day. The Brainerd Lakes area in particular finds this pairing completely within the DGZ which would lead to very fluffy snow flake generation and higher SLRs. Elsewhere, most locations are just a little on the cool side of the DGZ which would lead to more plates then dendrite production. Snow totals across the board are largely 1-2". The few exceptions to this are northern Douglas and Northern Bayfield as well as Iron County. Northwest flow will once again lead to a favorable gravity wave set up for Douglas and Bayfield and may be able to squeeze out some higher snow totals closer to 2-5" We'll also get another healthy round of lake effect snow showers for the Gogebic range. Especially as we head into the overnight hours. 850 temps fall to -22C and the low level lapse rate of 8C/km stretch all the way up to 750mb. We currently have around 4-6" for Iron County, but latest trends keep increasing for the county. More Winter Weather Headlines may be needed.

Another aspect of this incoming clipper that we will need to monitor will be the impact of the surface winds. The 3hr pressure change with this clipper as it moves across ND is upwards of 7-8mb leading to a strong gradient. With the low pressure moving into southern WI by the evening hours this pressure gradient will enter our west leading to an uptick in northwesterly winds and potentially some blowing snow. The strength of the pressure change does look to weaken through time with our strongest winds likely over the Brainerd Lakes region initially. Blowing snow is top of mind when we get into these windy conditions. But timing of the precipitation looks to arrive well ahead of the windy conditions. We could see some lofted snow from what previously fell, but our heavily forested CWA usually makes that a tough sell. Overnight, the pouring of cold air from the northwest will allow for an enhancement of winds along the North Shore. This forecast package has bumped the winds up higher and a Wind Advisory may be needed Sunday evening into Monday Morning.

Return of Arctic Air:

With the departure of the Alberta Clipper the Northland will find itself enveloped by an arctic air mass to start the work week. With the breezy northwest winds sticking around for Monday morning a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued across the region. NW WI can expect wind chills around -30F with MN colder still around -35F. The Arrowhead looks to be the windiest location and under the coldest portion of the air mass Monday morning, and Extreme Cold Warning may be needed.

This arctic air is expected to remain in place through the week and into the weekend. Highs will remain in the single digits and overnight lows will dip into the -10s. Another cold blast that may warrant headlines moves in Saturday morning. Winds are generally light but when mixed with overnight lows around -20F we could see Wind Chills approaching -35F to -40F across northern MN.

There is potential for another clipper on the horizon late Tuesday into Wednesday. However model consensus remains very poor with little consistency at this time. For now, we will carry 20-30% PoPs for that time range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A slow moving low pressure system is making its way into eastern Ontario with plenty of wrap around moisture still lingering over the Northland. Satellite and surface observations still have widespread MVFR conditions with some embedded snow showers. Gusty winds are also leading to areas of blowing snow reducing visibility at times. Radar also shows a gravity wave impacting northern Douglas and Bayfield with some light to moderate snowfall. There is some clearing in NW MN that should make it into INL leading to VFR conditions for awhile. Less certain on how far this clearing will make it but HIB may also return to VFR after 00Z as well as BRD. Another clipper system is set to move through tomorrow with MVFR ceilings returning in the morning and possibly dropping to IFR by the afternoon. Snow will take a little longer to make it to the surface as there will be some dry air to overcome, but the column looks to saturate by mid morning allowing for snow to accumulate. Current projection is for light snow totals generally less than 3 inches. The exception may be BRD where higher SLRs may lead to very fluffy flakes capable of more rapid accumulations.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Enhanced northerly winds continue to weaken this afternoon and evening with Small Craft Advisories dropping off after 8PM. We are only looking at a brief reprieve in winds as another system dives across the Upper Midwest tomorrow. Northwest winds will increase once again Sunday afternoon with Gales likely across the North Shore. An arctic air mass will also accompany this push of winds leading to freezing spray along the South Shore. Winds and wave action will begin to wane Tuesday morning. However, Gales are only expected through Monday morning before they weaken to Small Craft Advisory criteria.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for WIZ001>004-006>009. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ003- 004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Sunday night for LSZ140>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ141>148-150. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for LSZ142.