textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive Tuesday into Wednesday, but an anticipated slower frontal progression will decrease the daytime severe weather threat. The best potential for any isolated strong to severe storms would be in central and north-central Minnesota.

- Additional showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorm potential continues on Wednesday and Thursday, with the best storm potential (10-40%) during peak daytime heating in the afternoon to early evening.

- A more active pattern with rising moisture and instability brings another shot for rain and storms Sunday through next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

For the rest of the day, expect pleasant conditions across the Northland as high pressure remains in control. However, the cumulus field developing this afternoon has significantly higher coverage than models originally predicted, leading to partly to mostly cloudy skies for many areas. Temperatures will remain seasonably comfortable in the low to mid 70s. As we head into the overnight hours, skies will continue to see some clouds with lows dipping into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Winds will be light and shift to the east and southeast.

A slow-moving low pressure system and its associated fronts will push into the region on Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms from west to east. Because of the slower timing of tomorrow's front, we will see weaker instability and less of a chance to rebuild that instability during the daytime hours, thus decreasing our severe weather threat for Tuesday afternoon. Showers will still be widespread, but the lack of daytime destabilization keeps the severe risk quite low.

Steeper lapse rates do finally move in overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, but MUCAPE will generally remain under 1000 J/kg along with very little shear. This means that while thunderstorms will continue through the night and into Wednesday, they are not expected to be severe. Widespread rainfall amounts of a half inch to an inch are likely, especially from the Brainerd Lakes toward the I-35 corridor, providing a good soaking for the area before the system departs.

Cyclonic flow aloft keeps rain shower chances lingering into early Thursday, primarily across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, before drier air finally wins out. By Friday and Saturday, a brief lull in the active weather arrives as a ridge builds over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will provide a dry start to the weekend with seasonable temperatures in the 70s and comfortable humidity levels.

Looking ahead to the end of the weekend and early next week, ensembles show a decent shot for more rain and storms in the Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday timeframe. A plume of rich precipitable water moves north into the region, followed by a large boost in CAPE and shear on Monday. With southwest flow aloft and the main storm track setting up just to our west, there could easily be strong storms, making this a period to monitor closely for potential hazards.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 648 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

VFR conditions prevail through at least Tuesday morning. Coverage of diurnal cumulus dissipates this evening with winds becoming light and variable to calm overnight under some scattered high cloud cover. Clouds will thicken and lower tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system on Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will begin to spread into northeast Minnesota by late afternoon into early evening for much of northwest Wisconsin. MVFR to locally IFR conditions are possible with the rain, particularly any thunderstorms that can move over a terminal. Most terminals have a 20% chance for a few hours of thunderstorms potential as early as the late afternoon, though potential is a bit better (30-50%) in north-central Minnesota at INL and particularly BRD, so have included PROB30 mention at INL and VCTS at BRD for the late afternoon to early evening hours Tuesday at the end of the current 00Z TAF period. Winds will become southeasterly around 10 knots on Tuesday with occasional daytime gusts to 15-20 kt, strongest in north-central Minnesota Tuesday afternoon. Some sporadic stronger, erratic gusts and hail could be possible at BRD and at INL to a lesser extent if strong to severe storms develop and move over a terminal Tuesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

High pressure over Lake Superior will maintain relatively quiet conditions for the rest of the day with variable winds around 10 knots or less and waves of 1 foot or less. Dense fog from this morning has largely dissipated. On Tuesday, a low pressure system approaches, shifting winds to the northeast and east at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots possible by Tuesday afternoon and evening along the North Shore. Widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, though the severe threat is low.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 30 to 40 percent range for the rest of the day with light and variable winds generally under 10 mph. High pressure will keep conditions dry through tonight. On Tuesday, a low pressure system moves into the area bringing widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms through Wednesday, pushing minimum relative humidity values into the 45 to 70 percent range. Winds will shift to the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts. A drier pattern returns for Thursday and Friday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.