textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of frost will impact sensitive vegetation early this morning across the International Border and Arrowhead regions.

- Rain chances return Thursday afternoon with some storms possible overnight into early Friday. No severe weather is expected at this time.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible today with dry conditions. Very dry and windy conditions possible on Friday, Red Flag Warnings may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Morning clouds will give way to clearing skies and a pleasant but rather dry day across the Northland. North to northwest winds will generally remain light, between 5 to 10 mph. However, dry air moving into the area will cause relative humidity to drop into the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon. With more sunshine expected today, high temperatures will rise into the 60s to low 70s for most, though near Lake Superior temperatures will stay in the 50s. Tonight, high pressure gradually shifts east, keeping skies relatively clear and producing another chilly night. Frost is likely once again for inland areas of the Arrowhead and North Central Minnesota as lows drop into the 30s. Frost Advisories are possible once again tonight.

The vertically stacked low which moves across the Canadian prairies Thursday still looks on track to bring us a warm day. Conditions will be dry for most of Thursday as southerly winds gradually increase through the afternoon, gusting to 25-35 mph, while temperatures climb into the 70s. Moisture moving in with an approaching warm front should keep minimum RH values from getting excessively low. Rain chances move in from the west along with a warm front during the afternoon and evening hours. Weak instability should help generate some thunderstorms which may produce small hail, but not enough for any severe storms. This activity will continue to move across region Thursday night.

Friday presents a complex and potentially concerning fire weather setup. As the initial cold front clears the area, very dry air will wrap into the region on the backside of the departing low. Deep atmospheric mixing will likely tap into strong winds aloft, sending surface gusts to between 30 and 40 mph. Dry air moving into the area from the west will cause relative humidity values to potentially drop into the teens or low 20s. Red Flag Warnings may be required. Temperatures will remain warm, peaking in the 70s to near 80 degrees in Northwest Wisconsin.

Not much has changed with the forecast over the weekend, with a weak front draped across the Northland, producing a large temperature gradient from north to south across the area Saturday. Precipitation chances return to the area for Saturday night through Monday as a low pressure system moving across the plains pushes an inverted trough across the Northland. During the weekend, our upper level pattern shifts to a more active southwesterly flow which continues into early next week. This pattern should keep precipitation chances going through the middle part of the week. The change in pattern should also keep temperatures near to above normal.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

An area of MVFR stratus with a few sprinkles to linger overnight, only slowly easing east across the area through Wednesday morning. Have put in a more pessimistic clearing trend than most guidance, with KDLH not returning to VFR until 10z, and it should not clear KHYR until after sunrise. After sunrise, conditions will be VFR through the end of the TAF period. Fog is possible overnight for the Arrowhead, but do not currently expect any lowered conditions at the terminals. North to northwest winds of less than 11 kts overnight to gradually back to northeast this evening, and then to southeast by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Generally light winds today at less than 15 knots with waves diminishing to 1 to 2 feet. Conditions deteriorate Thursday afternoon and night as east to southeast winds increase to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet along the North Shore overnight Thursday night. Winds veer to southerly Thursday night, then southwest on Friday, with gusts still 20 to 25 knots, and building waves. Small Craft Advisories are likely for all or portions of the lake starting Thursday afternoon continuing through Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Today, high pressure brings sun and low relative humidity values between 21 and 26 percent across our western counties, though the more aggressive models have min RH values in the teens. Winds remain light at 5 to 12 mph. This will lead to a few locations with near critical fire weather conditions given the lack of recent rain. Thursday afternoon brings rain chances, with slightly higher RH values. Winds wil be stronger as southerly winds increase to gust 25 to 30 mph. Friday is the primary day of concern with west winds gusting up to 35 mph and dry RH values in the upper teens and 20s. Red Flag Warnings may be needed Friday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018- 021. WI...None. MARINE...None.