textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog has cleared, but is likely to return tonight in the Twin Ports and up the North Shore

- Widespread rain showers are expected Monday through Wednesday, with total accumulations of 1-2 inches expected. Brainerd Lakes and the North Shore will likely have the highest rainfall values.

- Temperatures closer to normal and continued cloudiness will continue into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fog has finally cleared earlier this morning as warm air is advected into the region along a warm front. For the afternoon, the blob of rain over northeast Minnesota this morning will continue its trek northeast through the Arrowhead this afternoon, though any rain will be brief and any accumulations are expected to be little to none. Aside from this passing moisture, expect dry and mild conditions across the Northland for the rest of the afternoon. Strong warm air advection will push temperatures well into the 60s and a few around 70 for inland locations. Clouds will thicken across the area again tonight ahead of the next system.

Rain showers will spread across the region on Monday through Tuesday as a deep upper level trough and subsequent large low pressure system move into the central United States. An anomalous moisture plume forecast to be above the 90th climatological percentile will bring a soaking rainfall to the area. Quick pressure falls ahead of the system will lead to breezy conditions, with southeast winds gusting between 20 and 30 mph by Monday afternoon. The heaviest rainfall rates are anticipated during the Monday afternoon and evening hours. There is still quite a spread of QPF values for this system, This is especially true for the Brainerd Lakes area and within an orographic enhancement band along the North Shore, where accumulations between 1.5-2.5 inches are possible. Initial QPF values for Tuesday seemed to have jumped dramatically compared to previous runs, so we opted to try and tamper them down a bit to get QPF values to better match with other ensemble guidance. Even so, most of the area has a very high chance (80%+) of seeing at least an inch of rain.

Isolated embedded thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday as some weak instability gets added to the mix, though severe weather is not anticipated. Light precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east through Wednesday afternoon as the center of the low pressure system briefly stalls over the Northland and then slowly departs into the Great Lakes, leaving cool and cloudy conditions into Thursday.

High pressure will build into the Northland for late Thursday and Friday, bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail for the end of the week, though mostly cloudy skies will linger. Cooler air filtering in behind the departing system will return our temperatures to seasonal norms. Expect highs back near normal into the 40s with overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s heading into the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 544 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Mid to high level clouds are currently streaming across the area this evening, with southeast winds at 5-8kts. Low levels remain moist, and expect low clouds to spread from Lake Superior inland tonight, with MVFR cigs at all terminals and as low as IFR at terminals closest to the Lake. Fog is also possible, particularly at DLH and HIB, and will need to watch for vis dropping to below 1 mile before sunrise.

Showers will spread into the Northland from the southwest Monday morning, with VCSH at BRD by 10Z. Activity will become more widespread and spread to the north and east through the morning, with rain continuing through the taf period. MVFR to IFR visibilities are possible with the heaviest rainfall. Southeast winds will also increase with the approach of the system Monday morning as gusts up to 25 kts are expected.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Relatively quiet conditions are expected for the rest of the afternoon on Western Lake Superior with variable winds under 10 knots and waves 1 foot or less. Easterly winds will increase significantly on Monday and Monday night as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible in brief periods, particularly near the Twin Ports. However, unless these winds increase further or become more widespread, Small Craft Advisories will likely not be needed. Waves will build to 1 to 3 feet in response. Widespread rain will occur Monday into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain minimal through the entire forecast period as a very wet pattern takes hold and minimum relative humidity values remain elevated. Widespread soaking rain is expected Monday through Wednesday, with most of the area expected to see 1-2 inches of rain throughout the couple days. Winds for the rest of today will generally be out of the south to southeast around 5 to 10 mph. Southeast winds will increase on Monday, gusting 20 to 30 mph, before shifting to the north on Tuesday. Cooler and drier weather arrives late week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.