textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry weather today with cooler temperatures.

- Several chances of rain through the week, and maybe a bit of snow mixing in far north Tuesday morning.

- Cool temperatures Monday, then a warming trend for mid-to-late week.

UPDATE

Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A line of scattered showers is sticking around in northwest Wisconsin this morning associated with a cold front. Further northwest, clouds are more scattered and high-level. A surface high is located to the west with drier air advecting into our area with northwest flow.

Today, we'll have some competing air masses with dry air north and a short wave passing by to our south with rain showers mainly in southern Minnesota, but possibly extending far enough north to bring some sprinkles/light showers to parts of northwest Wisconsin/east-central Minnesota. This could largely end up being virga though with a dry day expected. Relative humidity will likely fall to around 25% in the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon. Cold air advection continues into tonight, and we'll see below freezing temperatures in northern Minnesota.

On Monday, winds switch around to east-northeasterly ahead of a Colorado low that will bring rain into the region late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Total amounts aren't looking too impressive overall, but many places could pick up a quarter to half inch and perhaps locally higher. Snow still remains a possibility mainly for the Iron Range and north Tuesday morning, but if it does happen, this would mainly be conversational snow. With warm air advection expected, there would be a very narrow window at precipitation onset where temperatures may be cold enough for snow, and if snow does fall, it either won't accumulate at all or just a bit of slush on grassy surfaces before melting quickly as it changes back to rain Tuesday morning.

For more details beyond Tuesday, please see the previous discussion below.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Low pressure was located over northern Manitoba early this afternoon with a cold front extending into northwestern Ontario, central Minnesota and western Iowa. A line of showers was observed on radar ahead of this cold front from northeastern Minnesota into central Minnesota. A large area of high pressure was centered over the northeastern CONUS with another area in the northern High Plains. As the cold front moves to the east into tonight, showers will end from west to east. An isolated lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with this activity, but instability is very limited and lightning activity has ceased after being present earlier this morning. Breezy southerly slow ahead of the cold front has resulted in temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s from the Minnesota Arrowhead into the I-35 corridor and across northwest Wisconsin.

A much more seasonable airmass arrives tonight behind the cold front as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs tomorrow will only be in the upper 40s and 50s with mainly dry conditions. The cold front may linger across northern Wisconsin into southern Minnesota and bring a stray shower or two to our southern row of counties in northwest Wisconsin. With the drier air moving in and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph across northeastern Minnesota, RH values may fall into the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon. Much of northern Minnesota away from Lake Superior will fall below freezing tomorrow night with mid-20s possible in north-central Minnesota.

High pressure will be to our north on Monday before shifting to the east Monday night into Tuesday. Surface low pressure will move from the Central Plains to the Red River Valley of the North Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers to the region starting Monday night. Another upper low will emerge from the Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday with another area of surface low pressure developing across the Northern Plains. This will keep chances for showers in place across the Northland into Wednesday afternoon. Additional rainfall chances will then be seen for the end of the week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s before warming into the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the week. With lows Monday night into Tuesday morning falling below freezing across northern Minnesota, so snow may mix with the rain or possibly change over to all snow for a brief period before temperatures trend warmer after sunrise Tuesday morning. No accumulations are expected, but don't be surprised to see some white stuff in the air in spots early Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Fairly quiet weather with light winds this morning. A little fog has developed at BRD, but I don't expect this to last much more than an hour. Showers are affecting HYR and will for another few hours, but the intensity is light and VFR conditions are expected. For the rest of the day and into tonight, west winds will gradually become northerly. Speeds below 10 kt. VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Winds will be northwest today with gusts less than 20 kt. Winds gradually shift to northeasterly on Monday. Wind speeds will gradually pick up during the afternoon with gusts around 20 kt. As early as late afternoon, gusts in the 20-25 kt range may develop around the head of the lake. Low pressure will pass through into Tuesday with rain possible. Wind speeds Monday night into Tuesday will be strong, around 20-30 kt. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most nearshore waters Monday night into Tuesday. Winds become southwesterly going into Wednesday, and more breezy conditions that could be hazardous for small craft will be likely Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A dry day is expected today. Clouds will be around for much of the day, though mid to high level clouds will be most prevalent. Stray showers can't be ruled out for parts of northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota, but dry air may prevent any showers from developing at all. RH is expected to fall to around 25% in the Wisconsin Pine Barrens this afternoon, perhaps slightly lower. Elsewhere, widespread 25-30% RH. Winds will be pretty light in northwest Wisconsin today though, slightly stronger with gusts up to 20 mph in northeast Minnesota, especially the Arrowhead. Slightly elevated fire weather conditions are expected today due to the low RH values expected.

Rain moves in late Monday through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts will be somewhat variable, but many places in north-central Minnesota could see a quarter to half an inch (perhaps locally higher) with lesser amounts elsewhere. More light rain is possible Wednesday. Temperatures warm a bit mid to late week. With plenty of moisture from passing systems, min RH will hover around 50% or higher for the rest of the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.