textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy with areas of drizzle through the day.

- Rain chances return Thursday into Friday.

- Windy and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday may lead to elevated fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Today-Wednesday:

Upper level shortwave is pushing east of the region this morning with rain tapering off. Sounding profiles still show very saturated low level moisture with dry air moving aloft in the mid an upper levels. This will lead to widespread stratus lingering through the day and if we can generate some weak forcing we could see some areas of drizzles. Winds will gradually begin to turn to out of the northwest and the strong winds that have been streaming over Lake Superior will also decrease as surface high pressure builds across the Northern Plains. Wednesday, surface high pressure glides across the region with mostly cloudy skies continuing. Highs on both days will be in the 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 30s.

Thursday and Friday:

Two low pressure systems are set to impact the Upper Midwest as we head into the end of the work week. The first is being propelled out of the Central Rockies as a deep trough ejects out of the desert southwest. 00z suite of guidance largely has this system traversing across the Midwest and towards Lake Michigan through Thursday. There still remains some discrepancies on timing and placement but the deep moisture from the Gulf looks to largely stay to the southeast of the Northland. While this low will largely bring rain chances across our southern counties another low advancing out of Saskatchewan will bring rain chances across our northern counties. The latest NBM guidance suggests that rain will being Thursday morning out of the south with chances spreading across the region through Thursday night and tapering off Friday morning. The trajectory of the northern low will bring an onset of cold air with it pouring in from the northwest. If the cold air manages to arrive while we still have moisture to work with we could see some snow mixing in with the rain across northern MN. The GEFs (which has a slightly slow progression of the moisture when compared to the EPS) has about 13% of its members indicating some snow activity. Overall, low impact with mostly just being conversational snow if it manages to develop. Additionally, the area will see a strong pressure gradient setting up leading to strong northwest winds. Depending on how quickly the precipitation exits we could see elevated fire weather concerns as RHs plummet.

Weekend:

The aforementioned pair of lows will merge over the Great Lakes Saturday morning. The pressure gradient will relax a bit over the region for Saturday but we will see quite a chilly morning to begin the weekend. Wind chills will be in the teens and twenties. Temperatures will recover through the day as plenty of sunshine is expected, look for highs to climb back into the 50s and 60s. Conditions will also be quite dry which may prompt some fire weather headlines again. Sunday is shaping up to be beautiful with highs in the 60s and lighter winds out of the west and southwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

A mixed bag of ceiling heights across the Northland this morning as low stratus lingers in the wake of yesterdays rainfall. Most of the region is in engulfed in IFR ceilings and guidance suggests that this stratus will persist through the forecast period. Additionally, patchy drizzle will be possible through the day that could reduce visibility at times.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Gales have subsided across western Lake Superior but we are still seeing reports of gusts to 25 kts. Wind speeds will continue to gradually decrease through the day with gusts of 25 kts likely gone by mid morning. Wave heights however will take additional time to decrease, as such the Small Craft Advisory will continue in the early afternoon. Quieter boating conditions will settle over western Lake Superior through mid week. Strong northwest winds will return late Thursday with gales possible early Friday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns through most of the work week. Min RHs stay in the 50s through Thursday and winds aren't overly strong through this period. Rain chances move through again Thursday and exit Friday morning. Friday could see some very strong winds as the rain system exits which could prompt elevated fire weather concerns if we rapidly dry out. Saturday is looking very dry with Min RHs dropping to 25-30%, gusty winds will still be present but not nearly as strong as Friday. See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>148-150.