textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog early this morning will reduce visibility across parts of the region before dissipating by mid morning.

- Isolated showers and storms may develop today and tonight. If they do form, a few could be strong with small hail and gusty winds.

- Dry and comfortable weather for the late week before chances for widespread precipitation arrives late Friday into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

A cluster of storms over southeastern North Dakota are pushing east into Minnesota early this morning. While there are not a lot of great indications either way that these storms will decay, the high res CAM models are doing just that with them over the next few hours. They are riding along the northern gradient of instability which extends east across central Minnesota, within a zone of 40+knots of bulk shear. Forcing is much stronger for the convective complex over eastern Nebraska, but a lobe of that shortwave may be helping to generate this little cluster. As long as it maintains strength over the next hour or so, it may push into the Brainerd Lakes region around sunrise. Otherwise, patchy fog has developed across mostly northeast Minnesota this morning, and may also develop over northwest Wisconsin over the next few hours. Some of this fog may become locally dense with visibilities dropping to a quarter mile or less. Expect the fog to gradually dissipate by mid morning as daytime heating kicks in. High temperatures today will reach into the upper 70s to mid 80s.

As we head into this afternoon and tonight, there is a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop, particularly along and south of Highway 2 in Minnesota. While instability will be somewhat limited by dry air in the lower levels, bulk shear values may aid in a few stronger storms. The risk of severe storms has been reduced with the lower instability levels in more recent model runs. These scattered shower and storm chances will linger into the overnight hours before tapering off.

By Thursday morning, high pressure will build across the Upper Midwest, ushering in clearing skies and comfortable conditions for Thursday, Thursday night and Friday daytime. High temperatures for both Thursday and Friday will generally sit in the comfortable mid 70s to low 80s across the area.

Precipitation chances Friday night into Saturday remain likely as an upper level shortwave pushes across the region, drawing moisture into the area. Cloud cover will thicken during the afternoon and evening, setting the stage for a widespread precipitation event overnight into Saturday. At this time, widespread severe weather is not anticipated with this weekend system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Pleasant conditions will prevail across the Northland for the rest of today, though elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead will maintain hazy skies. Weather conditions remain mostly quiet through the evening, but atmospheric moisture and light winds will allow patchy fog to develop after midnight. Fog will be concentrated mainly across portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, where some patches of dense fog with visibilities under one mile are possible during the early morning hours.

Early morning fog will slowly dissipate on Wednesday, giving way to partly sunny skies. Guidance shows potential for isolated thunderstorm development, particularly along Highway 2 and southward. Low level lapse rates will be high, but this layer is also shallow overall. This will lead to little instability overall for the storms to tap into. Lingering dry air will also prevent some precipitation from reaching the ground. Finally, high- resolution forecast models vary on convective coverage, but of storms that do materialize, a few could become strong to severe. The main threats with the strongest storms will be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter.

Any lingering convection will taper off early Thursday morning, giving way to high pressure building across the Upper Midwest. This surface ridge will deliver quiet weather once again along with drier air, resulting in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies across the region. These conditions will linger into Friday daytime under partly sunny skies.

Weather patterns will transition Friday night as an upper-level trough moves over the region, tapping into moisture drawn from the south. Cloud cover will steadily increase, setting the stage for widespread precipitation across the Northland. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread into the area late Friday night and continue through Saturday as dynamic low pressure moves directly across the region. Storms are not expected to be severe at this time.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east Saturday night as the storm system departs to the east. High pressure will build back into the Upper Midwest on Sunday, leading to decreasing cloud cover and a return to partly sunny skies. Dry and comfortable weather will persist across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for the new work week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

VFR conditions with calm to light winds as of issuance time. Once again, fog is the main concern for the overnight time frame. Fog potential is highest in the 08-13Z timeframe at KDLH/KHIB/KHYR/KINL/KBRD where IFR visibility and potentially LIFR conditions are expected. Fog should dissipate and visibilities to improve by 13z for all sites. Once the fog dissipates, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Smoke aloft will continue to create hazy skies throughout the TAF period. There are some small chances for evening shower/storm chances mainly for KBRD which have been included with VCTS/VCSH groups.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light winds under 10 knots and waves of 1 foot or less will persist across the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior through Thursday night. Somewhat variable winds today will gradually shift to the northeast on Thursday, then gradually increase for Friday. Winds may increase enough to cause building waves into the southwest arm of the lake and may produce hazardous conditions for Small Craft. Rain shower and storm chances will return to the lake late Friday into Saturday.For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light northerly winds under 10 mph will continue today, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to between 40 and 50 percent this afternoon under hazy skies. Overnight humidity recoveries will continue to be excellent as temperatures drop into the 50s. A slight chance of showers and storms exists later today and tonight. Thursday will be similar to today, but slightly drier with lower precipitation chances. Friday more moisture moves into the region with RH values remaining above 40 percent, and winds increasing out of the east to northeast. The next widespread wetting rain chance will arrive Friday night and continue into Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.