textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Gales are ongoing over portions of western Lake Superior with elevated wave heights. Mariners should use extreme caution, especially around the Apostle Islands and along the North Shore above Silver Bay.

- Minimal chances for rain through the forecast period. Temperatures will be mostly above the seasonal averages with highs largely in the 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

A little warmer start this morning with morning temperatures in the 30s and 40s due to mid and upper level clouds rolling in from the northwest. A weak cold front will be moving in from the northwest later today with the pressure gradient relaxing behind the boundary. Not expecting any rain with the frontal passage as the vertical profiles remain mostly dry through the atmosphere. Despite the cold front advancing in from the the northwest this afternoon we should still see some fairly nice high temperatures due to the region getting a warm start in the morning. Highs are expected to be in the 60s.

Through the work week:

High pressure becomes the dominant feature through much of the upcoming work week. Unseasonably mild and dry weather will take hold across the area as an upper level ridge anchors over the central part of CONUS, setting up an omega blocking pattern. High temps will fluctuate between 50s and 60s through the week with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Lake breezes at times will keep shoreline locations closer to seasonal norms for mid October.

Late work week into the weekend:

The question of when our next best chance for precipitation will be is highly uncertain. Global models and ensembles suggest the potential for this omega block to break down on Friday into next weekend, with a cutoff low over southern California and the Great Basin propagating northeast towards the Midwest as a shortwave moves through the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. However, confidence in this timing remains very low given how far out in the forecast period this is and the tendency for omega blocks to be slow to break down. Furthered evidenced by the NBM PoPs continuing to be delayed with every update over the past four forecast cycles.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Breezy southwest winds will continue through tonight, then slowly diminish through the day on Sunday. A low-level jet has developed as of 05z, with KDLH radar profiles indicating 40 to 45 knots at 2 kft. The resulting LLWS for all terminals will continue overnight, easing by 15z Sunday morning as the nocturnal LLJ dissipates. Winds diminish during the afternoon hours on Sunday. A trough moving across the area late Sunday afternoon and evening will cause winds to veer to the northwest Sunday night for the MN terminals, but remaining under 10 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Strong southwest winds continue to stream across Lake Superior. Gales are still in effect for portions of the South Shore and Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Gales will weaken this afternoon with gusty winds tapering off tonight. Wave heights remain high, especially along the North Shore where 7-10ft waves are possible. Waves will take extra time to subside but overall expect them to become less than 3ft later tonight. Through the rest of the work week there are no strong signals for conditions hazardous to small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Another dry and gusty day will be on tap for today. However, not as dry or as windy as yesterday so fire weather concerns are not overly high at the moment. A cold front will be moving in from the northwest this afternoon leading to a wind shift from out of the southwest to northwest behind the boundary. This boundary will not be producing any precipitation as it crosses. Min RHs today are expected to be in the 30s-40s and wind gusts around 30-35 mph. Drier conditions may be on tap for Monday with early indications of min RHs in the 30s across northern MN, but an impressive amount of dry air aloft could see these values drop even further. Fortunately, not expecting much in way of wind as high pressure slides across the region.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 141>145-147-148. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140-146-150.