textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief shot of Arctic air this weekend will result in colder temperatures. Sunday morning will see the coldest temperatures in the forecast period, with lows in the negative single digits to negative teens.

- A dry pattern develops for this upcoming week with temperatures following a gradual warming trend. High temperatures by mid to late week will be in the upper 30s to upper 40s with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s.

- The next best chance for widespread precipitation comes late Thursday into Friday, with a wintry mix possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Conditions have been fairly quiet this morning as northwest winds have eased following a strong cold frontal passage yesterday. Lingering low stratus with occasional flurries continues early this morning in the Arrowhead as cyclonic flow aloft occurs. In the snow belt of the Penokee Range in northern Iron County, lake effect stratus is being observed early this morning. However, webcams and surface observations show no snowfall occurring at the surface. While flurries are certainly possible over the next several hours due to elevated delta-Ts between the lake sfc and 850mb of around 14-16 degC, dry air advection occurring later this morning will be bringing any lingering flurries to an end across the CWA.

A band of snow developing around a strong baroclinic zone is expected to move through central/southern MN into southern WI today. For our neck of the woods, impacts from this passing band of snow are expected to be confined to far southern portions of the CWA. Total snowfall today through this evening will only be a trace to a couple tenths of an inch for areas south of MN-210 and WI-70. For much of the CWA, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with much cooler high temps in the single digits to upper teens.

The brief shot of Arctic air impacting the CWA this weekend will bring the coldest temperatures late tonight into early Sunday morning, with lows on Sunday morning in the negative single digits to negative teens. While high pressure centered over the CWA will keep winds relatively light, there is a 60+% chance for wind chills less than -20 degrees in the MN Arrowhead east of US-53. While a Cold Weather Advisory is not expected to be needed at this time, it will still be a chilly start to Sunday!

A mostly dry pattern develops heading into this upcoming week with temperatures following a gradual warming trend. Split mid to upper level flow is very likely (85% chance) to keep the majority of precipitation both north and south of the CWA through Wednesday afternoon. A better chance for more widespread precipitation arrives late Thursday into Friday as a Colorado Low potentially develops and propagates into the Upper Midwest. Confidence in timing and precipitation type is very low at this time for this late week system, with the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean sea level pressure centers showing little clustering and very wide spatial variation. This high uncertainty is reflected in the forecast update this morning, with the chance for precipitation remaining in the 20 to 40% range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

With dry air winning out, we have removed any mention of VCSH/VCSN from mainly BRD/HYR as the band of snow has ended up south of even MSP. Mid level VFR CIGS are expected for the first 6-9 hours of the TAF, becoming SCT and eventually FEW250/SKC after 10z. Winds initially 330-360 at 7-10kts will dwindle to 03-05kts and trend towards 350-020 with no gusting. VFR expected for all sites for the entire period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Northwest winds have been easing this morning following the passage of a strong cold front yesterday. Expect northwest winds to persist today through tonight, with wind gusts of 20 knots or less. Winds shift to the southwest on Sunday, with speeds and gusts remaining at 15 knots or less. The next period of concern, where Small Craft Advisories may be needed, will be on Monday as low pressure moving into northern Ontario increases the pressure gradient across western Lake Superior with wind gusts up to 25-30 knots possible from Grand Marais to Grand Portage.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.