textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out.

- On and off chances of storms are expected through the weekend and into next week.

- Warm to hot conditions will persist at times into next week.

- Independence Day Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are possible during the day and evening. Severe weather is not expected. Expect highs around 80 inland and 60s to 70s near Lake Superior. Gusty easterly winds in the Twin Ports may create dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous conditions for small craft.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Tonight and Friday Storm Potential: A broad thunderstorm complex over southeast MN and western WI has some higher clouds into east- central MN and northwest WI. There have also been remnants of an earlier MCS out in the Dakotas that have now translated to new storms firing up approximately along a quasi-stationary warm front from the Dakotas and now into central Minnesota. The environment supporting these thunderstorms is actually quite healthy. There's a surface-based CAPE gradient (1-2 kJ/kg) where these thunderstorms are developing, ~1 kJ/kg of DCAPE, and low- level lapse rates as high as 7-8 C/km. Upper-level synoptic forcing looks rather weak and so too is shear (so that may limit storm's growth potential and sustainability), but with these parameters and a front in place, we could sure see a few storms this afternoon. Main hazards will be hail and wind, and while not expected to be widespread, isolated strong to severe storms are possible with this initial round of storms this afternoon and early evening. We're also watching convection over South Dakota that is likely to lift northeast through the night. The most likely scenario with these is that they will reach their maximum intensity this afternoon and early evening, then weaken as they move into our region later tonight. A stray strong to severe storm can't be ruled out after midnight, but most likely, these will be non- severe. There's still some uncertainty on how these later storms may behave, as it depends in part on whatever storms pop out ahead of it.

Friday looks almost like a rinse and repeat with instability redeveloping through the day. We'll likely have some remnant showers and storms somewhere during the morning, then building instability that will likely result in some more scattered showers and storms. In a very similar area of east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, instability may be enough to support isolate strong to severe storms. This threat could persist a bit into the evening before instability decreases.

Tonight through Friday night - Other hazards: We will return to onshore flow from Lake Superior Friday with high pressure settling in to the north. A backdoor cold front of sorts will cause slightly cooler temperatures next to Lake Superior, and some breezy winds could result in dangerous swimming conditions at Twin Ports beaches. Temperatures will be warm elsewhere with highs largely in the mid 80s, but heat headlines don't appear to be needed at this time.

Independence Day Outlook: We're watching the potential for an upper-level low to develop over the western Dakotas that could potentially trigger and work in-tandem with an MCS. If this happens, remnants of that could make it to the Northland sometime during the day and/or evening and bring showers and thunderstorms. There is low predictability about this at this time, so definitely stay tuned to the forecast. For now, plan on at least a chance for rain. Temperatures are likely to be pretty pleasant out there with highs around 80 inland and 60s and 70s by Lake Superior. An almost certainty at this point is blustery east to northeast winds streaming off Lake Superior, and with gusts 20-30 mph possible, this will likely create dangerous swimming conditions for Twin Ports beaches. This will be during the day Saturday and into the early evening until winds lighten up a bit. Conditions will also likely be hazardous for small craft that may be out on the water in the same period.

Sunday into next week: It's possible we might end up with brief surface high pressure on Sunday following the potential low on Saturday. Following that, it's looking like a continuation of warm and active weather into next week. We will likely have some warm spells with intermittent shots at showers and storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A few storms this evening are moving east across north central MN, from DLH back to north of BRD. Will keep VCTS at HIB, DLH, and BRD for a couple hours to start the forecast period. Given the proximity of lightning and outflow boundaries to DLH, will include a tempo for TSRA and northwest wind gusts of 24kts at DLH. This activity will gradually diminish this evening, but cannot rule out isolated to scattered convection overnight, but chances of impacts at any terminal are too low to include at this time.

Outside of this convection, VFR conditions are expected this evening. Light fog is possible late tonight, with MVFR to briefly IFR visibility, thru sunrise.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Gusty southwest winds will persist for a few more hours this evening. The Small Craft Advisory has been expanded down to Taconite Harbor and through 7 PM as some stronger gusts may last a little longer into the afternoon. After that, expect winds to lighten up and become northeasterly on Friday. I have made the wind forecast just about to the highest end of guidance as we often max out our wind potential with northeast flow. With that, winds are not likely to be strong enough to warrant Small Craft Advisories on Friday, though they will be close with gusts to around 20 kt. On Saturday, expect stronger winds with widespread gusts to 25 kt and wave heights 2-3 ft, perhaps locally to 4 ft. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Lighter onshore flow is expected on Sunday as well. Expect intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms through the next few days, with a few stronger storms capable of some hail or gusty winds not out of the question.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

No major fire weather concerns upcoming. We will see warm weather with intermittent chances for showers and thunderstorms. Widespread soaking rains are not expected, but with plentiful chances in the next week, it is likely that most places will see some sort of rain to keep some moisture in the soils. RH is not expected to fall much below 35% on any particular day, so no concerns there either. The driest days may be Sunday and Monday when storm chances decrease. Expect east to northeasterly winds through the weekend, then becoming more south to southwesterly next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ033-034-036- 038. WI...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...None.