textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The chance of patchy to areas of fog and/or stratus decreased and may develop later than expected, if at all, starting around the 3 to 6 am timeframe in central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Conditions would improve by late morning.

- Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday, bringing well above normal temperatures and with little to no chance of precipitation.

- Increasing southwest winds this afternoon and tonight will build waves and may create hazardous conditions for small craft on western Lake Superior.

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday night through Thursday will bring the potential for light lake-effect snow to portions of northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A ridge of high pressure is sliding southeast across the region this afternoon, which has brought light winds and sunshine for a large part of the area. Temperatures have risen nicely into the 40s for most, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 40s. This is a few degrees warmer than guidance, serving as an excellent illustration of the power of even early November sunshine on dark ground. As we head into tonight, the main forecast concern is the development of fog and stratus. There is a layer of stratus lingering over eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon. The warming temperatures and mixing of the boundary layer are quickly eating away at the edges of that stratus, but it is a rather large area for it to completely clear this afternoon before we lose the sunshine.

Soundings from this morning at Aberdeen and Bismarck put moisture associated with this stratus predominantly below 925mb. Wherever it ends up by late this afternoon, it is expected to expand once again after sunset, even as it advects northeast in the low-level flow. The heavy rainfall from earlier this week has also contributed a lot of moisture to the boundary layer, helping keep dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s over our area. The big question is whether the stratus from the west will expand into the area before or after fog forms, and what the intensity of either will be. Model guidance is struggling with the very shallow nature of the moisture, with some models going straight to stratus, and others giving us fog. For now I have favored keeping the stratus farther west with more fog development and colder temperatures. If that stratus layer expands and spreads east more quickly than anticipated, it will keep temperatures from dropping off as much as we have currently forecast and there will be less fog.

Whatever fog and stratus materializes tonight will gradually mix out Saturday morning, making way for another mostly sunny and mild day. Southwest winds will increase through the afternoon, bringing breezy conditions with gusts pushing toward 20 to 25 mph. This will help drive temperatures warmer than today, with upper 40s and lower 50s expected. A weak and moisture-starved cold front will cross the area late Saturday night into Sunday, shifting our winds to the west and northwest for Sunday. Despite this frontal passage, temperatures will remain above normal to close out the weekend.

A remarkably dry and quiet pattern will remain locked in place across the region for Monday through Thursday. Global models are keeping the primary storm track well north of the International Border. While a few weak shortwaves may pass near the area early in the week, precipitation chances remain low as the better dynamics and moisture will be confined to Ontario and Manitoba. High temperatures will consistently reach the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is notably above our normal late autumn averages. Overnight lows will still drop below freezing for most locations, but the overall weather pattern will feel exceptionally mild and tranquil.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR stratus over the terminals early this morning will slide farther east by mid-morning. The potential for low stratus and fog decreased through the evening and most terminals should stay VFR through the period. BRD and HIB have the greatest potential for MVFR/IFR conditions. The development of fog and stratus would be delayed by several hours compared to earlier forecasts. Think conditions will deteriorate in the 10-12Z timeframe and improve by late morning. Winds will veer southwesterly to westerly by tonight in the wake of a cool front. LLWS will make a return as westerly to northwesterly winds aloft overspread the area behind the front.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Quiet conditions remain over western Lake Superior for this afternoon and evening with winds largely under 10 knots and waves of 1 foot or less. However, southwest winds will increase significantly beginning late tonight through Saturday, gusting to 25 to 30 knots. This will build waves, mainly for the open waters towards Isle Royale, of 6 to 8 feet. The highest waves in the nearshore waters should be in the 3 to 5 foot range north of Grand Marais along the North Shore. Winds turn gradually to the northwest for Sunday and remain gusty. Hazardous conditions for smaller vessels are expected, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all of the western nearshore waters for Saturday into Sunday. Winds and waves gradually diminish through Sunday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A return to a drier weather pattern is expected to settle over the area through early next week with little to no chance for precipitation. Despite the lack of forecast rainfall, the record setting rainfall from earlier this week should help keep minimum relative humidity values somewhat elevated, generally hovering between 40 and 60 percent through the weekend and into early next week. Light and variable winds this afternoon will shift to the southwest tonight and increase for Saturday, gusting to 15 to 20 mph. Winds will then shift to the west and northwest for Sunday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-141>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140.