textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant, near normal temperatures through next week with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

- Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night, with sporadic precipitation chances this weekend into next week.

- The risk for severe weather is low over the next week, but cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon over northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Dry surface high pressure will be in place across northeast Minnesota the rest of today and into Thursday. A cold front will enter northeast Minnesota late Thursday evening and slowly move east across northwest Wisconsin through the day on Friday. Initially, low level moisture is expected to mix out through the afternoon ahead of the front to favor a dry forecast prior to 00Z. Thereafter, as low level moisture recovers, the low level jet modestly increases and a series of mid level impulses propagate along the International Border south of the main wave, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night across northeast Minnesota with the passage of the front. With limited buoyancy, severe weather is not expected.

Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Friday with daytime heating and bit better buoyancy building as the front slowly moves across the area. A few stronger storms with small hail and wind gusts over 40 mph are expected across northwest Wisconsin. However, the overall threat for severe weather is low.

For the rest of the forecast for this weekend and into next week, near zonal flow is favored across the lower 48. This overall large scale flow pattern favors near normal temperatures with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. The main storm track is favored to remain south of the Northland, however, low predictability impulses embedded in the faster flow aloft and daytime heating would present a near daily, sporadic coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms (isolated to scattered coverage). Overall, with limited buoyancy, severe weather is not likely.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period. Winds largely become light and variable this evening and tonight with some passing high clouds at times. Expect LLWS tonight into early Thursday morning at KINL, and possibly KHIB towards sunrise before wind gusts pick up. Winds pick back up from the southwest on Thursday, with gusts beginning around 14-15Z and peaking around 18-25 kt, strongest at KBRD and KHIB Thursday afternoon. Look at scattered mid and high level cloud cover on Thursday, particularly in northeast Minnesota. Also can't rule out some smoke aloft in northeast Minnesota Thursday afternoon from wildfires in the western United States and Canada. A low chance for isolated showers/storms near KINL Thursday afternoon, but confidence is too low at this time to include mention in the TAF.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Updated at 428 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the breezy southwest winds expected Thursday over the southwest Arm and along the North Shore. Most zones end Thursday evening and at this point, but the continued gusty winds and elevated wave heights forecast into Friday daytime keep the Grand Marais to Grand Portage zones in place through Friday afternoon.

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Locally higher winds this afternoon near Grand Portage with gusts to near 20 kts and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Otherwise, light winds this afternoon will become southwest around 10 kts tonight across western Lake Superior. Southwest winds will increase through the day on Thursday sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts to near 20 kts. Higher gusts to near 25 kts near the Twin Ports are possible (50-70 percent chance) and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Thursday will be warm and dry across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will range from 30-40 percent across northwest Wisconsin the I-35 corridor, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota, to 40-50 percent further west into north central Minnesota. There is a drier scenario where relative humidity would fall in the upper 20 percent range for northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Thursday. While not likely, if deeper mixing occurs Thursday afternoon, lower relative humidity would result. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s across the region with southwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-23 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ141>146.