textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Several waves of isolated to scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms through tonight.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening from the Interstate 35 corridor eastward across northwest Wisconsin.

- Generally speaking, minimal rainfall totals through early next week with 0.10 to 0.40 inch expected with most getting the lower amounts or less.

- Heat dome next week brings high confidence in at least Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat-related impacts to entire region away from Lake Superior shorelines. Areas of Major (Level 3 of 4) impacts north-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A weak cool front moves across the Northland this afternoon, shifting winds to the west across north-central Minnesota. Widely scattered showers and general thunderstorms are already developing along this boundary in far northern Minnesota. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated for the rest of the day, a few stronger thunderstorms may bubble up across the southern tier of the region, particularly around the Brainerd Lakes area and north of the Iron Range. These stronger cells could produce localized wind gusts up to 40 mph and small hail. The convective threat will gradually diminish late tonight, giving way to quiet conditions with localized patchy fog developing around the region toward early Friday morning.

Attention turns to Friday afternoon and evening as a stronger cold front drives south from Ontario into the region. Enhanced moisture and daytime heating will build a moderately unstable environment ahead of the front. Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop, warranting a Level 1 out of 5 (Marginal risk) for severe weather from the Interstate 35 corridor eastward across all of northwest Wisconsin. Deep-layer wind shear will be stronger than previous days, supporting organized storm structures capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. The risk will peak during the late afternoon and evening hours before tracking south and east out of the area Friday night. Total rainfall through the end of the week will remain light and highly variable, generally ranging from one-tenth to four-tenths of an inch, though localized higher amounts can accompany the stronger storms while some areas miss out entirely.

High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest on Saturday, bringing a brief reprieve with clear skies and dry conditions. This quiet interlude will be short-lived as a upper-level ridge begins to amplify over the central United States by Sunday. Southerly to southwesterly low-level winds will tighten, initiating a significant and prolonged warming trend. High temperatures this weekend will quickly climb well above seasonal averages, placing the region firmly into an early summer weather pattern.

A heat dome sets up over the Great Lakes region through next week. Multiple days of consecutive high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s are forecast for interior portions of the Northland. Southerly flow will also draw high Gulf moisture northward, driving up dew points and increasing humidity levels. Due to the extended duration of these hot days and warm overnight lows, we will be monitoring the need for possible heat headlines by the middle of next week. Nearly all of the region will see Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat risk impacts with areas of Major (Level 3 of 4) impacts possible in north-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin. Active southwesterly flow aloft around the periphery of the ridge will maintain daily, isolated chances for showers and thunderstorms from Monday through Wednesday, though no widespread pattern-breaking rainfall is expected to disrupt the heat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Persistent widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through this TAF period. A few of the stronger thunderstorms may produce small hail and wind gusts to 35 knots. Expect MVFR visibilities from any showers, otherwise VFR ceilings prevail through 06Z. Late tonight, fog is forecast at a few terminals so previous MVFR/IFR mentions persist in this latest issuance.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Quiet conditions prevail across the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior through Saturday. Winds remain from the south to southeast at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon with waves 1 to 2 feet or less. Winds turn southwest overnight, then become light and variable around 5 to 10 knots on Friday and Saturday. Waves will drop to 1 foot or less from Friday onward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms move across the lake this evening through Friday night, with locally higher wind gusts and small hail possible near any stronger storms. Expect a wind shift to easterly Saturday late afternoon from 10 to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A weak cold front shifts winds to the west across north-central Minnesota this afternoon. A second front passes tonight, turning winds northwest on Friday. Low-level moisture increases through Friday, keeping minimum relative humidity values above 30 percent Friday and Saturday despite highs warming into the 80s. Wetting rain chances have dwindled, with sparse, scattered amounts under one-quarter of an inch expected. Dry conditions rule Saturday and Sunday, with relative humidity values dropping to 25 to 30 percent north of the Iron Range. Southwest winds increase Sunday with gusts to 25 mph. Especially Sunday will be another day to watch for near-critical fire weather conditions.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.