textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is increasing in a strong, quick-hitting clipper system impacting the Northland Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Expect accumulating snow, strong winds, and blowing snow.

- Another strong storm may affect parts of the Northland Saturday and Sunday, with the highest snowfall totals over portions of northwest Wisconsin

- A diurnal freeze/thaw will likely occur through late week and then temperatures remain below freezing for several days early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

TODAY-TONIGHT: This morning, a band of light snow stretches northeast to southwest through the Northland this morning, with snowfall along the immediate North Shore back to the Mille Lacs region, and eastward through northwest Wisconsin. Based on snowfall rates and enhanced banding, Pine County was added to the Winter Weather Advisory, as totals around 3 inches are possible slightly further west than previously expected. With the back edge of the snow band moving slowly eastward, there could still be light snow falling at the start of the morning commute along the I-35 corridor. Snow continues to pull eastward through the morning, with precipitation ending across northwest WI by mid day.

This afternoon starts a 18-24hr period of drier conditions, as the upper level trough axis shifts east of the area and a surface ridge stretches southward into the Red River Valley from Hudson Bay. This ridge brings drier air and light winds tonight. Will see low temperatures tonight fall into the single digits north of the Iron Range and teens elsewhere.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A potent, quick-hitting clipper system will pass through the region Thursday into Friday, bringing significant snowfall to most of the Northland. There remains slight track and timing differences amongst model solutions, but generally, the center of the surface low will track from near Grand Forks to the Brainerd Lakes region to Hayward Thursday night through Friday morning. Upper level dynamics and forcing are not in question with this system. With the arrival of steep lapse rates under the upper trough, strong fgen, and deep moisture around the east and north sides of the system, a heavy snowband is expected to impact the area. We continue to show the greatest snow amounts near and north of the US-2 corridor in MN and west of US-53 in WI. Additionally, strong southeast to east winds across western Lake Superior will allow for significant lake enhanced snowfall along the North Shore. Strong pressure gradient winds could lead to blowing snow, especially Thursday night. Wind/visibility probabilities suggest there is a non- zero chance of meeting blizzard criteria, on a local-scale, Thursday evening as strong wind gusts and heavy snowfall reduce visibilities.

Where are we looking for uncertainty and what could impact precipitation types and amounts? The dry air that arrives today will remain over the area through Thursday morning, and expect profiles to moisten downward through the day. Forecast soundings suggest a dry layer around 850mb hanging on into the afternoon that will need to erode before precipitation makes it to the ground. Would not rule out light precipitation beginning as early as midday across the west, spreading eastward through the afternoon, and intensifying as the column saturates.

Any slight change in low track could greatly affect impacts for the Northland. Given the strength of the surface low, southerly winds will push a warm sector northward into central MN, which could lead to a rain/snow mix across the southern extent of the forecast area Thursday afternoon. This system could be moving so quickly that the warm nose does not have a chance to advect further northward, but any slight northward change in the track could pull that warm sector further into the Northland. This would curb snow totals across the southern portion of the forecast area. For now will carry a rain/snow mix in an area from Brainerd to Phillips, with a change to all snow Thursday evening from west to east.

Overall confidence has increased in the need for Winter Storm Advisories and Warnings beginning Thursday afternoon. With current headlines running through mid day, will hold off on additional and overlapping products. Expect new headlines to come out later this morning.

WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK: Not much change in the weekend system this morning, as models continue to struggle with where the system tracks out of the Central Plains. A more northern track would bring snowfall back to the Northland late Saturday into Sunday. A more southern track, and drier air remaining over the area, could mean no meaningful precipitation at all. Guidance does agree that cold air will advect southward behind the Sunday system, pulling the region back into the deep freeze. High temperatures are likely to remain below freezing for several days to begin next week, with lows in the single digits below zero to the single digits above zero Monday and Tuesday mornings. Wind chills could be as low as -10F to -20F Monday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A wave of snowfall continues to move across the north central MN into NW WI this morning providing light to moderate snowfall rates. Ceilings range from MVFR/IFR with lower visibilities at times embedded with the falling snow. Conditions will improve west to east through the morning as the system departs. VFR conditions with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Winds will also shift to out of the northwest as the system departs.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 428 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for lingering wave heights greater than 4 ft, for the Outer Apostle Islands and towards Saxon Harbor. Winds become lighter through Thursday afternoon when another clipper system moves in. Strong winds are expected with this clipper. Conditions are expected to be hazardous for small craft for all nearshore waters into Friday morning, with a 40 to 50 percent chance of gales for parts of the North Shore Thursday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ038. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001-002-006>008. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ003- 004-009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150.