textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers along and south of the Iron Range continue through early to mid morning today. Light accumulations expected of less than one tenth of an inch. - Cold air moving over the region will lead to spotty, light rain and snow showers this afternoon into tonight. Snow accumulations will be minimal to none.

- Lake-effect precipitation sets up over the South Shore snow belts later this afternoon through Friday morning, starting as a rain/snow mix and then transitioning to all snow starting Wednesday night. Total snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches are forecast, with localized amounts to 3 inches possible in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties.

- A high pressure moves in for the end of the weekend into early next week, with a gradual warming trend starting late this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

CURRENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING:

Narrow frontogenesis and a mid-level trough grazing our southern areas is currently leading to light rain showers along and south of the Iron Range, with more moderate rainfall staying just south of the Northland. This precipitation will continue to slide southeast through early to mid-morning today before exiting southeast of northwest Wisconsin. Total precipitation amounts of less than one tenth of an inch are expected.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY:

Shortwave troughing/vorticity pushing south of northwest Ontario and across the Northland late this morning into early tonight will likely lead to scattered, light popcorn showers. These look to start as light rain/sprinkles in northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead late this morning and early afternoon, then transition to a rain/snow/flurry mix late afternoon into early tonight for much of the Northland as colder air works into the region. Expect very little in the way of QPF (trace to a few hundredths of an inch) and snow (none to localized 0.2-0.3", mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces) through early tonight. Highs today only reach the upper 30s to around 40 degrees in the Iron Range and areas north, while in the low to mid 40s for the rest of northeast Minnesota and mid to upper 40s in northwest Wisconsin.

Along and behind the mid-level shortwave troughing vorticity, much cooler air will be working into the area from the north for the latter half of the work week, leading to 850 mb temperatures in the -6 to -10 degC range this evening into Friday. Meanwhile, Lake Superior water temperatures remain at 6 to 9 degC above zero, so the combination of low-level moisture and this lake surface to 850 mb temperature difference will drive light lake-effect snow showers into the South Shore. This precipitation starts out as rain late this afternoon/early evening then transitions to a rain/snow mix this evening into early tonight before largely turning to all snow for later tonight into daytime Friday. The highest liquid water equivalent and vast majority of the snow accumulations are expected to fall Wednesday evening/night given the synoptic boost. Model thermal profiles show 200-300 J/kg of lake-induced instability, however the atmosphere will only be saturated in the surface to 750 mb layer throughout the event, barely reaching into the dendritic growth zone with drier air above it. This, combined with fairly warm ground temperatures and even above freezing air temperatures much of daytime Thursday, should limit the snow- to-liquid ratio of developing snowflakes and subsequent snowfall rates relative to a more typical winter lake-effect snow event. Most accumulations should be on elevated or grassy surfaces during the daytime hours Thursday, with accumulations on roadways/sidewalks primarily occurring Wednesday night and to a lesser extent Thursday night. Expect snow accumulations of a dusting to around 2" for the South Shore snow belt, with the highest of these accumulations in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties where some localized 3" amounts are also possible.

While lake-effect snow largely ends Friday morning, some lingering flurries could persist for parts of the Ashland/Iron County snowbelts Friday PM into Saturday morning. Drier conditions are expected elsewhere across the Northland for Thursday and Friday with daytime high temperatures in the low to upper 30s.

THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK:

High pressure moves into the Great Lakes region for this weekend into early next week, leading to drier conditions and a slow warming trend. Highs in the mid 30s to low 40s on Saturday reach widespread 40s by Monday and Tuesday, with the potential for some low 50s in spots by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Global deterministic and ensemble models show good agreement on mid/upper-level troughing sliding into the western CONUS on Tuesday, with a trough/closed low eventually moving northeast into the Upper Midwest sometime late Wednesday into the latter half of next work week. At the surface, this could develop a Colorado Low and eject that system somewhere into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest during a similar timeframe, bringing increasing precipitation chances to the region. Given the current forecast for warmer temperatures in the region, global ensembles keep the favored precipitation type as rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Most of the area is seeing VFR ceilings, with BRD, DLH, and HYR having some light VFR rain showers in their vicinity. Much of the shower activity on radar is evaporating before hitting the ground, however. These showers will exit to the southeast of the area towards mid- morning, around 15-16Z. MVFR ceilings expanding southward out of northwest Ontario move south through the area this morning, though ceilings may improve at times to VFR this afternoon, especially at HYR. However, MVFR ceilings return this evening. Scattered popcorn showers also spread southward into the area this afternoon and evening, starting out as light rain, then changing over to light snow later in the afternoon and evening as air temperatures cool. Lake-effect precipitation in the South Shore of northwest Wisconsin also ramps up this evening and tonight, starting as a rain/snow mix then transitioning to all snow later tonight and Thursday. There is some question how far inland this snow will persist, so it could be most of the night at HYR or potentially linger off and on through much of the day Thursday. Any snow showers that do develop could briefly produce MVFR to IFR visibilities if moving directly over a terminal. Winds start out light, then gust out of the north at 15-20 knots late this morning through early evening, being strongest at BRD.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Light west winds are currently ongoing as of 230 AM CST. A cold front will pass through early this morning, bringing spotty light rain and a wind shift to the north for today and Thursday. Winds will become strong starting later this afternoon near Grand Portage, and then gust to 25 to 30 knots for much of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters this evening through early Thursday morning. This will also build waves to 3 to 7 feet along the South Shore, highest in the Outer Apostle Islands to Saxon Harbor. A Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Northerly wind gusts drop below 20 knots for all locations starting late Thursday morning, except near Grand Portage where 20-25 knot gusts linger through mid-Friday morning. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory lingers longer near Grand Portage. Northerly winds persist on Friday into early Saturday, but will be lighter with gusts of 15 knots or less. Cold air being transported over Lake Superior will lead to some light rain to rain/snow mix to snow Wednesday into Friday morning as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A quick round of rain is expected is moving through areas along and south of the Iron Range during the current overnight through mid-morning, before exiting southeast of the Northland. Rainfall amounts of less than one tenth of an inch are expected. Minimum relative humidity values will be between 50 to 70 percent today and 45-65% on Thursday. We see colder air move into the region today through Friday, with northerly wind gusts of 10 to 20 mph today and Thursday, and 15 mph or less on Friday. Some popcorn showers spread north to south across much of the Northland late this morning into early tonight, starting out as light rain before transitioning to a light rain/snow/flurry mix later this afternoon into early tonight. Liquid equivalent amounts of a trace to a few hundredths of an inch and snow amounts of none to 0.2-0.3" on grassy and elevated surfaces are possible.

Lake effect rain/mix/snow will impact the South Shore this evening into Friday morning, with the highest accumulations in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties. Forecast snowfall accumulations range from a dusting to around 2", with some localized pockets of 2-3" in those higher terrain portions of Ashland and Iron counties. Meanwhile, the rest of the Northland remains precipitation-free for late this week through early next week with minimum relative humidity values largely between 40-60%. We also see a gradual warming trend to above normal temperatures starting late this weekend into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-145>147. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ141>144. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for LSZ148-150.