textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers late this afternoon and evening into early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts will be light.

- A stronger clipper will bring additional light rain showers Sunday night through Monday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

High pressure currently over the region will lose its grip this afternoon as a weak clipper system approaches from the northwest. Expect plenty of sunshine for the first half of the day, with temperatures warming closer to seasonal averages in the upper 50s to low 60s for most, though the North Shore will remain cooler in the upper 40s. Cloud cover increases from the west through the afternoon. Scattered rain showers are expected to develop and move into north-central Minnesota late this afternoon before tracking across the rest of the Northland this evening and early tonight. Rainfall totals will be light, generally under a tenth of an inch.

The rain showers are expected to taper off in coverage early Sunday morning and yield to another day of near- seasonal temperatures in the mid-50s to low 60s. West to northwesterly winds will be breezy, gusting between 20 and 25 mph. A much stronger clipper system is timed to arrive Sunday night and linger through Monday evening. This system has higher precipitation confidence, with chances for rain in the 50 to 60 percent range. While most areas will see light rain, some snow may (20-30% chance) mix in across the higher terrain of the Arrowhead late Monday as colder air filters in behind the departing low. Accumulating snowfall is not expected though.

A cold airmass sets up for the middle of next week. From Tuesday through Thursday, a deep upper-level trough will be anchored over the Great Lakes, keeping the Northland in a persistent northwesterly flow. High temperatures will struggle to leave the 40s and low 50s as overnight lows are expected to drop below freezing areawide. This will result in several nights of widespread frost and freeze concerns. Some diurnal, pop-up showers are possible each afternoon, but they will be light and sporadic.

A pattern shift finally appears likely by next Friday and into the following weekend. Southerly surface winds and rising heights aloft will allow the coldest air to retreat into Canada. This should push high temperatures back toward the 60s for most locations.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail under southwesterly to westerly winds 5 to 10 knots. Expect incoming VFR ceilings 21-00Z today as a clipper approaches and brings scattered rain showers to the region. MVFR ceilings Saturday night possible for terminals in the Iron Range to interior Arrowhead and northward.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Quiet conditions on Western Lake Superior today with winds under 10 knots. A weak clipper brings light and scattered rain showers first late this evening and overnight. Westerly winds Sunday daytime become southwesterly Sunday night and further shift to the northwest on Monday as a stronger system passes. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected late Sunday night through Monday evening with gusts approaching 30 knots and building waves, especially for the Apostle Islands and the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Minimum RH values reach 25-35% and southwest gusts to 20 mph today. The gustiest winds are forecast to remain offset from the lowest RHs though. A weak clipper brings light and scattered rain showers first late this afternoon in north-central Minnesota then through the overnight hours into northwest Wisconsin. Winds turn west to northwest Sunday behind the clipper with gusts to 25 mph and RH values again dipping into the 25-35% range. Better rain chances arrive Monday with slightly higher minimum RH values from 30-45%.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.