textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder today. Many places could see 0.5"-1.0" of rain with locally higher amounts possible along/south of US-2 and lesser amounts north.

- Cooler weather through the week, then warming up a bit this weekend into early next week.

- Scattered showers and non-severe storms are possible Thursday and Friday. Mainly dry this weekend, then a few more chances for rain at times Sunday and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today through Thursday: Rain is starting to spread into the region from the west and will continue to do so through the early morning. There are not too many changes in the forecast for today's rain. The low track is looking pretty solid to pass across southern Minnesota at this time, so we will be firmly in the cool sector of this very spring or fall-like system. There is plenty of moisture with PWATs just over an inch roughly south of US-2 with a bit of a gradient to lesser PWATs north of there. We will have at least a slight Gulf moisture connection, but most of that will be to our south. Widespread rainfall amounts are therefore not expected to be too extreme. Some frontogenesis may lead to some locally higher rainfall amounts that could reach as high as 1.5"-2.0". For most in east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, a broad 0.5"-1.0" is still looking to be the most likely range with lesser amounts north.

Thunderstorm potential is really looking paltry at this time. We could have a bit of elevated instability that could produce some embedded rumbles of thunder within the rain, but even where the threat is the highest down towards Price County, we might be only looking at a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This is really looking like it will be a rainy day nearly everywhere and that's the main threat.

Expect breezy east to northeast winds around Lake Superior and breezy southeast winds elsewhere this morning, eventually switching to northeasterly this afternoon everywhere and north to northwesterly later tonight. A Beach Hazards Statement will therefore be issued for gusts in the 20-30 mph range from Canal Park to Wisconsin Point.

No other major changes with this update. Please see the previous forecast discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Rest of Today:

The surface low pressure in NE WI is exiting to our east this afternoon, with lingering scattered shower and non-severe thunderstorm activity mainly in NE WI also exiting to our east by this evening. These storms will remain sub-severe as only a few hundred J/kg of instability and weak shear are present. With that said, the presence of 50-100 J/kg of 0-3 km MLCAPE, steep low-level lapse rates, cooler air aloft, and weak shear may support the development of a few funnel clouds or weak landspout tornadoes in north-central WI through the remainder of the afternoon.

A mix of clouds and sun are present in the Northland this afternoon with high temperatures forecast to top out in the mid 60s to low 70s, though slightly cooler along the North Shore and the Twin Ports immediately near Lake Superior. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph persist through early evening before becoming light towards sunset. Areas outside of NW WI and away from Lake Superior see minimum relative humidity values dip to the upper 20s to 40%, though some pockets of around 25% relative humidity can't be ruled out in spots across north-central MN through early evening. This combination of winds and lower RH could lead to pockets of elevated fire concerns, but widespread elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. RH recovers this evening and tonight.

Tonight - Thursday:

A robust fall-like clipper system will slide through the Upper Midwest tonight through Wednesday night, bringing scattered to widespread rain showers to much of the Northland. Deterministic and ensemble low pressure forecasts show the pressure dipping into the 986-992 mb range, being unusually deep for this time of year as highlighted by the forecast low pressure of less than the 1st percentile in the NAEFS CFSR climatology. Latest precipitation probabilities are 70-100% along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, and drop off to 20-50% north towards the International Border where intrusion of drier low-level air will be more persistent as the system moves through. Moderate to locally heavier precipitation amounts are possible in southern portions of the Northland with this system, with a widespread 0.4-0.8" forecast for the Brainerd Lakes east into Northwest Wisconsin. PWATs in excess of an inch in these areas combined with scattered thunderstorm potential and frontogenetic banding, particularly Wednesday afternoon into early evening, could produce localized pockets upwards of 1-1.5". Rainfall amounts diminish with northward extent towards 0.05-0.25" along and north of the Iron Range, and very limited accumulations around the International Border.

Regarding the storm potential Wednesday afternoon, high- resolution and ensemble low tracks largely keep the surface low track and most of the associated warm sector south of the Northland, and the severe chances along with it. However, as the surface low is tracking just to our south Wednesday afternoon, the surface warm front may work its way as far north as Pine County, MN, into inland NW WI, which could introduce a narrow corridor of 300-700 J/kg of MUCAPE. Model 0- 6 km bulk shear forecasts are fairly weak at this time--10 to 20 kt-- along with weak mid-level lapse rates and limited downdraft CAPE. As such, can't rule out a few strong storms with small hail or locally gusty winds, but the majority of any storms that develop Wednesday afternoon into early evening would be more general pulse storm modes. Precipitation becomes showers again after sunset Wednesday evening and largely comes to an end Wednesday night, though isolated shower chances linger into Thursday morning. Additional isolated, non-severe storms develop Thursday afternoon into early evening in the Arrowhead and NW WI as additional mid/upper- level shortwave trough energy moves through the area.

Otherwise, aside from showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday's weather will be marked by seasonably cooler temperatures and somewhat breezy daytime conditions out of the southeast to northeast on Wednesday and northwest on Thursday. Highs temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s are forecast on Wednesday and mid 60s to low 70s on Thursday. Strong onshore flow and building waves to 3-5 ft for Wednesday afternoon and evening is giving a high confidence signal for high rip current risk to develop for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will very likely be needed on Wednesday.

Friday - This Coming Weekend:

Northwest flow in the mid/upper-levels continues on Friday with shortwave troughing energy moving through forecast to bring additional chances (20-50%) for scattered showers and non-severe storms on Friday, with best potential for storms in the afternoon. Surface high pressure moving in for this weekend should keep the Northland mainly dry, but 10-20% chances for spotty diurnal showers cannot be completely ruled out. The Northland also sees a slight warming trend this weekend with high temperatures back into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the next 5-6 hours, but then expect rapid deterioration of conditions to MVFR and IFR around 12z as low pressure passes by to the south and brings widespread rain and moisture to the area. Ceilings are expected to remain around MVFR/IFR through the day with any improvement not likely until the late afternoon or evening. Visibilities are expected to fall into the MVFR category with rain and fog, and temporary IFR visibilities are possible at times. Thunder is possible mainly at BRD/HYR during Wednesday afternoon. Strong to severe storms are not expected, but some brief gusty and erratic winds may be possible with any storms. Expect breezy east to southeast winds through the day as well, then calming down during the evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

No headline changes with this update. We are still expecting breezy east/northeast winds today with low pressure passing by to the south. Wind gusts to 20-30 kt and wave heights up to 4-5 ft are expected through this afternoon, mainly in the western arm of Lake Superior. Rain will accompany the gusty winds today. A few rumbles of thunder are possible at times, but severe weather is not expected. Winds are expected to switch to northerly tonight and decrease in speed quickly.

Into Thursday, northwest winds become a bit breezy with gusts in the 15-20 kt range, but headlines are not likely to be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Rainy weather is expected today with a widespread wetting rain for most places except along and north of the Iron Range, where amounts up to a tenth of an inch or two may be possible, but also many places may see less than a tenth. Totals up to 1-2" are possible in east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin through tonight. Additional lingering scattered showers and storms are possible Thursday and Friday, so RH is expected to generally remain above 40%. With some drier weather this weekend, RH may fall closer to 30% for some places, but winds should be pretty tame with gusts to 15-20 mph at the highest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143-146. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-150.