textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- An Alberta Clipper moves through today bringing widespread 1-2" of snow. Higher amounts for the northern Douglas and Bayfield 2-4".

- Lake effect snow showers ramp up again for the Iron county late today into Monday. Totals of 3-7" are forecast for northern Iron County.

- Strong northwest winds arrive this afternoon into early Monday, with gusts up to 35 mph for most locations and up to 45 mph along the North Shore. Expect areas of blowing snow, especially in the Brainerd Lakes and for the South Shore of Lake Superior.

- Arctic air returns this evening into Monday morning with Cold Weather Advisories across the region. Cold air lingers through the work week with another bitter cold arctic surge of air for Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Clipper System and Lake Effect Snow Today into Monday:

The next 24 to 36 hours will be an active period with several weather hazards including accumulating snow and blowing snow, gusty northwest winds, and very cold arctic air.

Conditions are currently quiet in the Northland as of very early this morning with light south to southwest winds and mostly cloudy skies. That will change as we progress through this morning and today with an approaching Clipper system in southern Manitoba quickly sliding through the Northland today. There isn't a lot of moisture with this system with PWATs only around 0.15 to 0.2 inches, but we are looking at good synoptic support for lift as widespread snow moves in. Snow is already being reported in northwestern/western Minnesota, though there is a bit of dry low/mid-level air in the Northland that will need to saturate early this morning before snow can start reaching the ground.

Forecast atmospheric temperature profiles show some portion of the profiles in the dendritic growth zone for the first few hours of snow this morning for northeast Minnesota and until around midday in northwest Wisconsin that should help initial snowfall consistency be a bit fluffier and support snow rates to around 0.25"/hr. However, as the day progresses, snow consistency should become a bit finer/lighter and less fluffy, which should dampen snowfall rates a bit going into the later morning to early evening hours. Snow should come to an end for most locations by Sunday evening outside of the Arrowhead, and then end in the Arrowhead and inland northwest Wisconsin by the end of this evening. Snow lingers in the South Shore into Monday due to gravity wave and ramping up lake effect snow.

Widespread snow accumulations should largely be 1-2" for most of the Northland. The exceptions to this will be: 1) higher totals due to gravity wave effects this afternoon into tonight for northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties (2 to locally 4") and 2) northern Iron County in the Gogebic range (3-7" in the northern half of the County) due to lake effect snow and terrain enhancement. For Iron County this evening and tonight, very cold 850 mb temperatures of -22 to -26 degC and steep low- level lapse rates could produce lake-induced instability values of 800-950 J/kg. This could aid in moderate to locally heavy snowfall rates up to 0.5-0.75"/hr, though South Shore snow rates drop off considerably on Monday morning as the Clipper system shifts east. Lake effect snow in Iron County should linger through much of Monday, but come to an end later Monday evening and night as surface winds turn more westerly.

Strong, gusty northwest winds follow the ending of the clipper snow this afternoon into early Monday morning. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected for most of the Northland, strongest in the Brainerd Lakes. Winds along the North Shore could gust up to 45 mph given a strong pressure gradient coupled with the surge of arctic cold air this evening and tonight, where a Wind Advisory has been issued. Given the strong wind threat, there is also concern for blowing snow from the freshly fallen snowfall that could reduce visibilities and cause some difficult travel conditions, particularly in open areas around the Brainerd Lakes. Because of the blowing snow concern, we have issued Winter Weather Advisories for Cass, Crow Wing, and Aitkin Counties today into this evening, though the main blowing snow threat will be in the afternoon and evening. A Winter Weather Advisory has also been issued for Iron County due to a combination of the higher snow accumulations in northern portions of the County and areas of blowing snow concerns. If snow amounts trend higher than the current forecast with the gravity in northern Douglas and Bayfield Counties, then expansions to the Winter Weather Advisory for more of the South Shore may be needed.

Cold Arctic Air This Week and Next Weekend:

As cold arctic air ushers in behind the Clipper this evening into Monday morning, the combination of breezy winds and low temperatures in the teens below zero will lead to wind chill values of -25F to -32F in northwest Wisconsin and -30F to -40F in northeast Minnesota. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for mid- evening through Monday morning across the Northland. High temperatures on Monday will also struggle to reach 0F, with daytime wind chills staying in the teens to 20s below zero.

A similarly cold night is expected on Monday night into Tuesday morning with lows in the teens below zero and wind chills of 20 to 30 below zero as winds will be weaker. However, any uptick in winds here could push wind chills colder and possibly additional Cold Weather headlines.

Arctic air remains in place throughout the work week through at least next weekend, but does moderate slightly midweek with highs in the single digits to low teens above zero. An even colder shot of arctic air arrives late this week through at least next weekend, with generally lighter winds but highs below zero by next weekend, overnight/morning lows in the teens to 20s below zero, and wind chills approaching -30F to -45F, coldest in northern Minnesota. This timeframe will likely need additional cold weather headlines.

As for precipitation next week, another clipper late Tuesday into Wednesday could bring additional light snowfall to the Northland, though probabilities are only about 20-30% for an inch or two of snow for the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin and even lower probabilities with northward extent. Additional shortwave energy could bring some light snow late Thursday into Friday, but confidence is low given model spread and limited moisture to work with, so precipitation chances are only 10-30%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1110 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Predominately MVFR ceilings in stratus continue to hang on for the Minnesota Arrowhead into east-central Minnesota and across northwest Wisconsin. There is some clearing just west of HIB and VFR conditions at BRD and INL. While some of this clearing will work east into HIB,DLH, and HYR briefly tonight, conditions are expected to rapidly worsen later tonight into Sunday as a clipper system brings another round of snow. Expect MVFR ceilings and several hours of IFR visibilities in the snow beginning at INL and BRD around 12Z, HIB around 13Z, DLH around 14Z, and HYR around 17Z. Visibility with the snow improves from west to east during the afternoon, with snow coming to an end by Sunday evening for most northeast Minnesota terminals and mid evening for HYR. MVFR ceilings will hang around for most, if not all of the 06Z TAF period. Immediately following the snow, very gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 kt move into the area, which may lead to areas of blowing snow, particularly in more open terminals with few trees or buildings in the vicinity.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 334 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Northwest winds will increase rapidly this afternoon into tonight with gales expected for the North Shore this evening and tonight on the backside of a Clipper low pressure system. Wind gusts up to around 30 kt are forecast for the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin, but occasional, brief gale-force winds can't be ruled out there this evening and tonight. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin and a Gale Warning has been issued for the North Shore. A cold, arctic air mass will also arrive with these strong winds leading to heavy freezing spray along the South Shore this evening into Monday morning. Winds remain breezy through much of Monday into Monday night, but below Gale Warning Criteria after Monday morning. Therefore, hazardous conditions to small craft should linger until late Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ025-033>036. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for WIZ001>004-006>009. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 9 AM CST Monday for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST Monday for LSZ121. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>144. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ140>142. Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for LSZ142. Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ142. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Monday for LSZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight CST Monday night for LSZ145>148-150. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for LSZ145>147-150.