textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northerly to northwesterly winds will lead to near- critical fire weather conditions in northeastern Minnesota through early this evening.

- Cooler today with lingering sprinkles and isolated rain showers this afternoon. Very little to no accumulation expected.

- Drier with more seasonable temperatures on Wednesday, then gradually warming up again and becoming hot next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High pressure builds into the Northland early this morning, bringing fair and dry conditions across the region for today. Southwesterly flow develops on Thursday, initiating a warming trend and bringing a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms to far northern areas late in the afternoon and evening. High pressure slips to the east, allowing increased moisture into northern areas.

An upper level disturbance and trailing cold front push across the Upper Midwest on Friday into Friday night. This system will tap into increasing warmth and humidity, generating a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Friday night, mainly focused across northern Minnesota. Heavy rain, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be the primary concerns with storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Today - Tonight:

A secondary cold front is moving southward through the Northland this afternoon with weak cyclonic flow behind it. There is just enough low-level moisture in this pattern to produce intermittent sprinkles and a couple very light rain showers this afternoon in portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, but very little to no rain accumulations are expected. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies continue through early evening alongside northerly to north-northwesterly winds gusting to 20-30 mph and substantially cooler high temperatures in the mid-60s north to mid-70s south relative to what we have been seeing recently. Despite relatively higher minimum relative humidity values of 40-50% this afternoon, the stronger winds set the stage for near-critical fire weather conditions in much of northeastern Minnesota through early evening.

Much more comfortable low temperatures in the mid-40s to around 50 degrees settle in tonight alongside calm to light and variable winds and clear to mostly clear skies.

Wednesday - Early Thursday:

High pressure sliding through the region on Wednesday into early Thursday will keep the weather during this timeframe dry with mild conditions continuing. Some scattered diurnal cumulus develops mid/late Wednesday morning into early evening, otherwise conditions will be mostly clear. High temperatures on Wednesday will be seasonal in the low to upper 70s, with Wednesday night lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s.

Late this Week - Weekend:

The upper-level pattern becomes amplified late this week into weekend with broad mid- and upper-level ridging over the western U.S. and a trough over eastern Canada/eastern U.S. This will set up northwest flow over the Upper Midwest in which a few shortwave troughs could move through the region while temperature trends will be on the rise. The first round of precipitation potential would be a 10-40% chance for in far northern Minnesota--mainly north of the Iron Range--late Thursday and Thursday evening. The better chances (30-80%, highest across northern Minnesota) would be with another shortwave trough and attendant surface front Friday evening into Saturday morning. There are additional, low-end shower and storm chances (20-40% chances) on Saturday and Sunday, but confidence is lower as to the timing and southward extent of any shortwave troughs rounding the top of the ridge into the Northland due to the closer proximity of the mid/upper-level ridge axis by that time. Depending on how quickly the cold front clears the Northland on Saturday, there could be a brief window of time late Saturday where an instability/shear combination could support strong to severe storms. There is also a weak signal for strong to severe storm potential on Sunday, but confidence in potential and locations is low at this time. Regardless, there is not a strong signal for widespread precipitation amounts over the next 7 days, with probabilities of >0.25" through the weekend ranging from 50-60% in the Iron Range and north to 30-40% in much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin and 20% in central Minnesota.

High temperatures gradually warm from the low to mid 80s on Thursday to mid-80s to low 90s on Saturday and Sunday, though onshore flow/lake breeze on Sunday would likely keep the hottest conditions away from Lake Superior. Still, this heat would likely lead to Heat Advisory for portions of the Northland this weekend. These hotter conditions combined with fairly low relative humidity and breezy conditions at times could lead to a return of elevated fire conditions for Friday into this weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. HIB may see some fog in and out throughout the overnight hours, as other airports nearby have reported. However, fog isn't expected to linger long especially as winds increase in the early morning. Diurnal cumulus is expected to develop this afternoon, with bases ranging 4-6 kft. Skies are expected to clear again after sunset.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM today for nearshore waters from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage, where southwest wind gusts up to 25 knots and waves of 1 to 3 feet are expected. Otherwise, southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots will persist through Thursday. Waves across western Lake Superior will generally range from 1 to 3 feet, building to 2 to 4 feet near Grand Portage Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

High pressure over the region will keep weather rain-free today and Thursday. Relative humidity values will drop into the 30 to 40 percent range both afternoons. Light winds today will turn southwesterly at 5 to 10 mph on Thursday with afternoon gusts up to 20 mph. Heat and humidity will build Friday into the weekend, with breezy conditions returning Friday and Saturday, with winds up to 25 mph. The next chance for significant rainfall will be Friday night into Saturday along the Canadian Border into the Arrowhead with rainfall between 0.25-0.5".

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141.