textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick-moving weather system will bring a quick round of rain this afternoon, mixing with freezing rain and snow into this evening. Minimal accumulations are expected.

- Above normal temperatures are expected this week into next weekend.

- No major weather systems are expected in the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Cloudy skies abound across the region this afternoon. This is all in-tandem with a clipper with a low center just north of the Canadian border and a baroclinic zone just aloft, which will be the focus for a bit of mixed precipitation this afternoon into this evening. Initially, we're dealing with some pretty dry air around the Northland with temp and dew point depressions around 10 degrees. Some radar echoes to our west do not appear to be producing any precipitation at the surface yet, though there are higher dew points to our west that suggest that some rain may make it to the surface within a few hours.

The latest model trends have been downward for precipitation this evening a little bit, but we're still looking at the same general Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin area having the best chances at seeing some minor impacts. In the Brainerd Lakes, and most of east-central Minnesota, above-freezing temperatures this afternoon will probably cause p-type to be mostly rain. Around or after sunset as the precip moves east, expect a gradual changeover to light snow. There is a non-zero chance for some light freezing rain or sleet for parts of northwest Wisconsin as temperatures start to cool off a bit after sunset. Overall though, due to the quick-moving nature of this and not a lot of QPF in general, the light precipitation should result in minor impacts at worst. Some places may have a bit of a slick evening commute, but nothing unheard of for this time of year.

A cold front will pass through tonight and bring in a slightly cooler air mass. We could end up with some residual post-frontal snow flurries, so I kept that in the forecast region-wide tonight. A secondary upper-level wave associated with the same clipper in Canada may bring a little light snow (accumulations less than half an inch) to northeast Minnesota Tuesday morning to midday or so. We'll also see some breezy northwest winds through the day and highs below freezing.

Ridging builds in on Wednesday from the west, and it's looking like we'll settle into a pretty quiet and warm weather pattern for the rest of the week, into the weekend, and possibly into early next week. Very little precipitation chances, but we will have a diurnal freeze/thaw cycle going on, which could lead to some slippery untreated surfaces (sidewalks/decks) and perhaps some fog at times due to added moisture from snow melt.

There are some hints at a broader troughing pattern out west starting sometime next week, which could set us up for a more active weather pattern. It is too soon to say for sure though.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Radar this evening shows a lot of returns across north central MN into NW WI but dry air in the low levels is mitigating most of this precipitation making it to the surface. The column will continue to saturate through the evening with ceilings lowering to MVFR and some light precipitation expected at the surface. A cold front will also move through the region with leading to an increase of northwest winds overnight and through tomorrow. Wrap around moisture from the departing system will see clouds lingering through Tuesday with some spotty flurries possible.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 238 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Southwest winds this afternoon may be a bit breezy between Grand Marais and Grand Portage for a couple hours before sunset, but then briefly decreasing winds tonight as a cold front passes through. Winds become gusty again following the frontal passage Tuesday morning, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most nearshore waters with northwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 kt expected into Tuesday night. Winds remain northwest to west on Wednesday, but speed lightens up quite a bit. Winds are looking generally light several days out as well. With the front this evening, some light mixed precipitation is possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ145- 146-148-150.