textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The next chance for showers and storms will be tonight through Tuesday and again Wednesday.

- Severe storms are possible, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of a cold front.

- Seasonal, dry conditions return for the later part of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Current Conditions/Tonight:

High pressure has exited the region this morning with southerly surface winds streaming back into the Northland. Satellite shows a swath of cloud cover slowly moving in from the west and engulfing the region. The radar does show some weak echoes across the region but model soundings still show and impressive dry slot through the low levels which is likely preventing any precipitation from hitting the ground.

A low pressure system moving across the Canadian Prairies will lead to an active weather pattern beginning tonight and through Wednesday. Current expectations are for an area of showers and storms to initiate over the Northern Plains late this evening and travel east through the overnight hours. The better ingredients for strong to severe weather remain to our west where SPC has a Marginal risk outlined. As these storms move east the the 12Z suite of guidance suggests that they will outrun both the strongest instability and available bulk shear. Some of the latest CAMs are maintaining a few more vigorous cells into the early morning hours across our west, but largely expect this activity to weaken into showers for Tuesday morning.

Tuesday:

Ongoing showers are expected to be scattered across the region through the morning hours from the previous nights activity. Despite the cloud cover and morning precipitation, we still expect ample recovery of moisture in the afternoon. A warm and moist air mass ahead of a cold front sliding in from the west will lead to the development of more widespread showers and storms. Modest instability with dewpoints in the 60s should lead to MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Bulk shear will also be improving through the afternoon as deep layer shear increases due to the upper level low moving along the International Border. Pairing these together should result in an environment capable of producing strong to severe storms. The latest HREF is also depicting a few impressive updraft helicity tracks suggesting some supercell development. Main hazards look to be hail of 1.5" possible with wind gusts of 65 mph. A tornado can't fully be ruled out as well with strong 3CAPE and ample surface vorticity ahead of the frontal boundary. Peak severe weather timing looks to be between 3PM - 10PM. SPC has our region highlighted in a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5).

Wednesday:

The cold front will have moved out of the region on Wednesday with northwesterly winds flowing back across the Northland. The upper level low will still be churning overhead as it scuttles towards the Great Lakes. Residual moisture combined with the cyclonic flow aloft will generate some additional showers with isolated rumbles of thunder. No severe weather is expected though with activity tapering off after sunset.

Into the Weekend:

Another stint of quiet and pleasant weather begins Thursday. Northwest flow continues aloft with surface high pressure over Manitoba expanding into the Upper Midwest. Highs will be back into the 70s with a gradual warm up heading into the weekend. We may see another chance at precipitation to start the weekend as impulses aloft break down the ridge in place. Cross barrier flow through the Northern Rockies may develop a low in the Dakotas that tracks across the Midwest. Still plenty of disagreement in timing amongst models, for now we have 20-30% PoPs for the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions across the Northland. High pressure has departed to the east with southerly surface winds retuning to the region. Cloud cover will be increasing through the period as our next weather system begins to move across the Canadian Prairies. Overnight, we could see some showers and storms move in from the west before weakening as they move towards Lake Superior. Tomorrow morning may also have a scattered to broken MVFR clouds before another round of showers and storms fire off in the afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Light winds across the lake as surface high pressure departs to the east. Tonight winds will increase out of the northeast around 5 to 10 knots. By the early morning hours we could see some showers entering from the west. Better chances for showers and storms will be tomorrow afternoon when a cold front moves across the Lake. Some of these storms may be strong to severe producing large hail and damaging winds. Wednesday will see winds shift to out of the west with some lingering showers through the day. An occasional storm can't be ruled out, but severe weather is not expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Surface high pressure has moved off to the east with light southerly winds across the region. Rain chances could return later tonight as a low pressure over the Canadian Prairies spawns activity across far western MN this evening. These storms are expected to lose steam as the travel west into our region through the early morning hours and may end up with just some light rain. However, tomorrow afternoon we are looking at another round of showers and storms which could be strong to severe. Rain chances linger into Wednesday as the low pressure system slowly migrates into Lake Superior. Winds will also switch to out of the northwest gusting up to 20 mph. Quieter conditions return Thursday and Friday as high pressure expands from Manitoba into the Upper Midwest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.