textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms, some of which may be severe over northwest Wisconsin, will move east out of the Northland this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats and there is a small chance of a tornado.

- Colder into the weekend with breezy northwest winds. Some snowflakes are possible along the International Border Saturday afternoon.

- Warmer temperatures return next week with near-critical fire weather possible Monday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This afternoon through tonight...

Rain and thunderstorms will advance eastward across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through this evening. The greatest severe weather risk remains over northwest Wisconsin. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the greatest threat. A small risk of a brief tornado remains, though that potential is trending lower with time. Storms have formed several broken lines and will continue to propagate northeastward at 50-60 mph over northwest Wisconsin.

Farther west cold temperatures at the surface and aloft may cause a transition from rain to snow or sleet before precipitation ends. Strong cold air advection develops behind the front tonight leading to strong and gusty northwest winds. Temperatures tonight will drop well below normal with lows in the upper teens north to the upper 20s south.

Gusty northwest winds persist Saturday with well below normal temperatures. There may be enough moisture and cold air advection to generate spotty flurries or convective snow showers over the Iron Range to the Canadian border and over the Arrowhead. Highs will reach the low 30s north to around 40 in central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Sunday through next week...

Temperatures trend warmer Sunday through the week. Southerly winds and deep mixing may lead to near-critical fire weather conditions Monday ahead of a dry cold front. Wednesday may be dry and gusty as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Scattered thunderstorms continue to move east along a cold front and are no longer expected to impact any terminals. Excluding a brief period of VFR conditions in north-central MN over the next couple hours, MVFR cigs with isolated areas of IFR will largely persist into Saturday morning. Ceiling heights are anticipated to improve to VFR on Saturday. Scattered light snow showers may be possible in the Arrowhead and far north-central MN tomorrow afternoon and early evening, but confidence in coverage is too low at this time. Expect northwest winds to remain gusty through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 353 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A low pressure system and cold front will propagate eastward over the waters this afternoon and evening. Rain and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, are forecast ahead of and behind the front. Winds will back northwesterly and strengthen behind the front and remain strong through Saturday night. Gales of 35-40 knots are forecast for portions of the North Shore tonight and Gale Warnings are in effect. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft through Saturday evening. Quieter conditions are forecast Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will pass over the waters Monday night and Tuesday and could pose a risk to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A low pressure system and associated cold front will propagate through the region this afternoon and tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will gradually pass eastward through the afternoon. A few severe storms are possible with large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. The greatest severe weather risk will be over northwest Wisconsin through this evening. Precipitation may turn over to snow before ending over central and north-central Minnesota. Saturday will feature strong and gusty northwest winds. RH values will dip into the 30-35% range. Temperatures begin to trend warmer on Sunday and closer to normal on Monday. The warmer temperatures Monday and again on Wednesday may pose a risk of near-critical fire weather conditions due to low RH values and gusty winds.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ121- 143>148. Gale Warning until 3 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ150.