textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Clipper moves through this afternoon and evening providing a dusting of snow across the region.

- Above zero temps through the work week. We warm back to climatological averages this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Current Conditions/Tonight:

A very lack luster clipper system is moving in from the NW this afternoon and will slide across the Northland through the overnight hours. The low pressure system is rather weak sitting at 1001mb as it moves into western Ontario. Deterministic guidance also keeps the low on the weak side as it moves towards Lake Superior tonight. The best synoptic forcing is on the front side of the system with a corridor of PVA sliding across the Northland. However, this forcing is in alignment with a large amount of dry air in the low and mid levels of the atmosphere which is preventing much of the snowfall generation. Satellite and webcams show some light snow across the International Border but roadways look to only be partially covered with snow at the moment so snowfall rates are not very impressive. Behind the synoptic forcing we can find some better saturation in the low levels. This paired with some steep low level lapse rates will lead to HCRs which can already be seen in far western MN. Expect these HCRs to stream through the overnight period occasionally leading to localized bursts of snow. Impacts will be minimal and this forecast package has not changed much for snow totals. Largely expecting the region to stay under half an inch.

Tuesday- Friday:

Cold air will filter in behind the exiting clipper system through the week but not nearly as cold as we had to endure late last week and this past weekend. Overnight low temps will be in the negative teens as oppose to thirty or forty below. Our highs will also manage to climb into the single digits. Additionally, we will be looking at predominately some flavor of northwest to west winds through the period leading to off and on snow shower chances for the South Shore. Accumulations through such a long period will be minimal.

Weekend:

As we head into the weekend we finally take some strides towards our temperatures reaching their climatological normals. Highs soar into the 20s with low temps in the single digits. Ensembles have good agreement with keeping high pressure over the Midwest for Saturday leading to quiet weather conditions for the Northland. Surface high pressure moves off to the east on Sunday and may allow for a return of precipitation. Still a lot of model uncertainty at this time so PoPs remain around 20% for Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Satellite and radar continue to show off and on MVFR/IFR visibility in snow associated with horizontal convective roll snow showers behind the departing clipper system and front. Ceilings have been largely VFR to MVFR and are expected to continue that way into Tuesday morning. Snow coverage and potential should diminish later tonight into early Tuesday morning, lingering longest in northwest Wisconsin. Model soundings still favor cloud bases in the MVFR range for much of Tuesday, but confidence is lower regarding whether cloud coverage will be more broken with the lingering cyclonic flow or if coverage will be more scattered. Gusty northwest winds persist through most of the TAF period, then begin to wane Tuesday evening. Expect some patchy blowing snow from the recently fallen snow during the current overnight hours.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 208 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Southwesterly winds are ramping up this afternoon, which will lead to gales the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage, and the Outer Apostle Islands through this evening. Heavy freezing spray is likely for some places as these strong winds interact with the frigid air mass and open water. Winds switch to northwesterly tonight, maintaining hazardous conditions for small craft through Tuesday morning. Of note, there is quite a bit of ice built up along the South Shore at this time. Especially from Sand Bay to Bayfield, thick ice cover, as observed by satellite, may not warrant a need for any headlines. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory was not issued for that area at this time despite gusty winds expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Tuesday night for LSZ140>146-148-150. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ150.