textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm system number 1 is arriving from the south this morning and brings a mix of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet to the Northland through tonight. Strong winds off Lake Superior will lead to blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

- Storm system number 2 arrives Friday and will impact the region into Saturday with rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Widespread travel impacts are expected with both systems.

- The pattern remains active with a clipper moving in from the north late Sunday and potential for snow squalls on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Winter Storm Today:

We are in the early stages of our 1st round of winter storms. An upper level wave is moving off of the Rockies this morning spawning a surface Low in the Central Plains. Despite still being quite a fair distance away we are already seeing its influence on the Northland. A broad area of isentropic ascent out ahead of this system is leading to snowfall across southern and central MN. Radar shows this activity slowly migrating north and will rotate through the Northland through the day. The latest forecasted low track is slightly further southeast which will slightly delay the onset time for the main snowfall and also reduce the freezing rain amounts. But overall the current headlines still look to be in good shape. As most of the snowfall is expected to fall during the day time hours we still expect this to be a sloppy mess. Our high sun angle for April will help to eat away at the overall snow totals. One pitfall for the forecast is trying to nail down the high temperatures for today. With the slight shift in the low track temperatures are expected to trend cooler but still be flirting with around freezing temperatures. Because of this, our 25th-75th ranges are now slightly broader then the previous forecast package, which is a little unusual since we are at the event horizon now. But, a few degrees on either side can really tip the scales for precipitation type and accumulations. Still would lean towards the lower end amounts due to the aforementioned reasons above. Fortunately, the synoptic forcing associated with this system looks a little more diffuse leading to snowfall rates struggling to get to 0.5" per hour. The only exception to this may be the North Shore and the Twin Ports where gales across the Lake will lead to a slight boost thanks to terrain enhancement. The low pressure will drift off towards the eastern UP early Friday morning with precipitation ending south to north.

2nd Winter Storm:

Our first system departs Friday morning with a brief reprieve in the action before the 2nd system starts to bring another round of precipitation Friday afternoon. Not quite a rinse and repeat of the first system, but there are quite a lot similarities once again. With snow being favored for MN and a warm nose impacting most of NW WI. One of the major differences is that this second system looks to be a stronger upper level low as opposed to an open wave which is leading to increased synoptic forcing. These better dynamics look to arrive in the overnight hours and persist through the morning hours of Saturday which will favor better snowfall generation as surface temperatures will be below freezing. This set up also looks to have a TROWAL which may lead to some banded snow developing across the Red River Valley and into northern MN. Still looking at high probability of 4" across our northwest with a transition zone of a wintry mix through the Twin Ports and the Brainerd Lakes Region. Over in NW WI warm air aloft with freezing overnight temperatures are looking more favorable for ice accumulations greater than 0.10" By the afternoon NW WI will largely be above freezing with rain being favored for a time. As we head into the evening hours some steeper mid level lapse rates will result in some MUCAPE building in over NW WI. This could lead to some embedded thunderstorms and increased precipitation rates. Will need to closely monitor this threat as this may lead to rapid accumulation of freezing rain depending on the timing. By Saturday afternoon the low will have moved into the UP once again with cold air overtaking the region and snow becoming the dominate precipitation type. Look for the storm to fully exit and snow to taper off Saturday night.

Sunday - Monday:

Another brief lull in the action for Sunday with highs recovering back into the 40s. But the fun doesn't stop there. A clipper system is set to drop in from the north late Sunday with impacts lingering through Monday. Snow totals have gone up with this forecast package but still remain on the low side around 1-2". One thing to monitor will be the potential for snow squalls Monday afternoon. Looks like another classic set up in northwest cyclonic flow aloft and some steep low level lapse rates. At the very minimum it looks like an environment that could produce some snow showers with heavy burst potential.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A mess of mixed precipitation will continue throughout the day. Temperatures are starting to warm near HYR, lessening the threat for FZRA this afternoon as a mix of rain/snow will be favored. BRD will continue to hang in between FZRA and SN throughout the afternoon before switching back to all snow this evening when temperatures decrease. Snow will continue for INL, HIB, and DLH leading to IFR to LIFR conditions into late tonight. Strong northeasterly winds will decrease and switch to the north overnight tonight. Once precipitation is done, IFR ceilings are expected to stick around for the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 237 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Quite an active pattern going forward with northeast winds increasing. Small Craft Advisories are already in effect and Gales have been slightly delayed to start around noon. Widespread snowfall will impact the Lake through the day as well as a large system makes its way through the Upper Midwest. Gales only briefly diminish Friday morning, but another large system is right on the heels of the first brining more messy weather to Lake Superior. This will also induce more gales Friday evening, primarily on the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ020-021. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ010>012- 018-019-026-037-038. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ025- 033>036. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for WIZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for WIZ006>008. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for WIZ001>004-006>009. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ009. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for LSZ141>147-150. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ148.