textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and breezy weather today. Partly to mostly cloudy skies.

- Warming up Friday and Saturday. Hot weather with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s expected on Saturday.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely Saturday with gusty south winds up to 45 mph and dry air.

- Much cooler temperatures next week with rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

A few showers have been slow to disintegrate over the evening, and there are a few pockets of fog around the Iron Range where rain has fallen during the afternoon. Otherwise, there are plenty of clear skies and quiet conditions out there, which will persist through the early morning.

Today, surface high pressure moves in from the west, and we will have some weak shortwaves passing by aloft that should keep plenty of clouds in place. The air should be pretty dry, so rain isn't expected, but if there were a few spotty sprinkles in the Arrowhead during the afternoon, it wouldn't be shocking. Light to calm winds tonight will lead to partially ideal radiational cooling conditions, though clouds will stick around. Areas of frost will be likely.

The surface high will move east tonight and we'll get southerly/southeasterly return flow developing on Friday. Temperatures will start to warm up as a result. Other than that, pretty quiet weather aside from some clouds associated with warm air advection.

A broad upper-level ridge axis will settle over the Northland Saturday night with a low-level jet developing with strong warm air advection. The air is expected to be pretty dry, and skies will likely start to clear out from south to north. Winds are expected to be breezy all night, steadily increasing in speed.

On Saturday, a low pressure system to the west with the upper-level ridge moving east just slightly, but still pretty much overhead, will lead to a very tight pressure gradient with strong warm and dry air advection through the day. Put simply, Saturday is looking hot, dry, and windy with the majority of GEFS members in the 90th percentile or higher of climatology for the HDW Index. Highs will likely reach into the 80s for many places and wind gusts in the 30- 40 mph range will be common, perhaps with some gusts approaching 45 mph, especially along the South Shore. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely, and if conditions trend drier, critical fire weather conditions can't be ruled out.

We'll keep within the warm sector Saturday night, and low temperatures in the 50s and 60s will be right about where normal highs are this time of year. On Sunday, we'll get a cold front moving in from northwest to southeast. We could get some rain in north-central Minnesota as early as Sunday late afternoon/evening with the cold front. A secondary trough aloft may bring a more widespread area of rain on Monday. Much cooler temperatures will follow with northwest flow Monday night. Expect some temperatures to fall below freezing up north.

Models differ on how late rain may exit Monday night, and it's possible there could be lingering light showers of rain or mixed precipitation into Tuesday, but most likely we will dry out with high pressure moving in. Temperatures will be seasonably cool, and expect more below-freezing temperatures Tuesday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Some fog has been present at the Iron Range, and could return in the early hours of the morning. This prompted a TEMPO for the latter half of the night. Northwest winds will increase throughout the morning, reaching up to 20 kts in the afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish again in the evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Westerly winds with gusts to 20 kt are expected today with otherwise quiet conditions. High pressure will pass through Thursday night, so winds will become light and variable. As high pressure departs on Friday, easterly winds are expected. Some blustery conditions with gusts 15 to 25 kt are possible. Winds shift more southerly Friday night, and while most places will see gusts topping out at 20 kt, areas from Grand Marais to Grand Portage could see some of those 25 kt gusts persist.

Strong south to southwest winds are expected on Saturday, especially along the South Shore. Gales may be possible there (40-60% chance). Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed everywhere else, except possibly parts of the North Shore near Grand Marais. Winds will remain strong Saturday night, decreasing a bit Sunday ahead of a cold front. Winds then turn northwest to northerly Sunday night and become blustery again. Rain will be possible Sunday evening into Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Expect dry conditions with RH falling to around 30-45% today with west winds gusting 10 to 20 mph. Rain that fell yesterday may keep fire weather conditions low despite some dry and breezy conditions, in addition to some cloud cover today.

Winds shift to south/southeasterly on Friday after high pressure moves through. Some dry conditions with RH as low as 30-35% possible in northwest Wisconsin. Wind gusts are expected to top out at around 20 mph there.

On Saturday, temperatures will warm up substantially with strong south to southwest winds and dry air. There are approximately 2/3 of GEFs members favoring 90th percentile of climatology or higher for the HDW Index on Saturday. Conditions favoring this include dry and hot air moving in. RH is likely to fall below 40 percent in northwest Wisconsin and high temperatures will likely rise into the low to perhaps mid 80s. Winds will be quite strong with 25 to 40 mph gusts likely, and some 45 mph gusts can't be ruled out along the South Shore. Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely as a result, and if conditions trend drier, critical fire weather conditions can't be ruled out.

RH should recover nicely into Saturday night, though breezy conditions will persist into Sunday before they gradually lessen. RH may fall to around 40% Sunday in northwest Wisconsin, then a cold front will pass through Sunday night bringing a wind shift to northwest and north by Monday along with cooler temperatures and higher humidity. Rain will be possible as early as late afternoon Sunday in north-central Minnesota, spreading southeast on Monday. Rainfall amounts do not look substantial at this time, but certainly several places could see a wetting rain of a quarter inch or more.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.