textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer like temperatures this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon due to gusty winds of 25-35 mph, dry air, and very warm temperatures. - Closer to seasonal temperatures next week with light rain chances returning late Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Quite the transition for today with summer like temperatures making a return. An expansive upper level ridge sets up to our east as a surface low pressure deepens over the Canadian Prairies. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient over the region leading to breezy southwest winds and broad warm air advection surging across the Northland. Wind gusts will be around 35 mph and our high temperatures will be nearing record breaking values in the 80s. Some of the CAMs are painting some weak returns in model reflecitivty this afternoon across the International Border. However, we are keeping PoPs below 10% as soundings show and immense dry layer in the low levels that rain would evaporate upon entering. This pattern will persist through the evening hours with winds weakening a bit but our record warm low temperatures will likely be broken as current guidance points towards overnight lows in the 60s.

Sunday:

A cold front will move slowly from northwest to southeast across our region Sunday into Sunday night. The pacing of the front will be incredibly slow and near stationary at times. Due to this slow progression high temperatures will remain very warm across most of the region. Areas behind the front, namely far northern MN will see cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. As the boundary sags south we will see rain chances slowly increase. Sounding profiles still show a large amount of dry air that will need to be worked over before rain can reach the surface.

Monday:

The better chances for light rain arrives on Monday as a secondary upper level trough crosses the Upper Midwest. Lack of a deep moisture source is keeping PWATs around 1.25" and minimal instability will also keep thunderstorm chances at bay. Overall rain totals will be on the low side around 0.05-0.15" With the passage of the cold front we will see more seasonable temperatures return to the region with highs back in the 50 and 60s.

Tuesday into Midweek:

High pressure builds into the region for Tuesday and starts to depart on Wednesday. Quiet weather conditions during this period with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s. Heading into Thursday and beyond there is a high degree of uncertainty among the 00Z suite of guidance. Cluster analysis shows a deep trough that digs into the desert southwest early in the week. But its progression into the midwest remains uncertain with a GEFS dominate clusters suggesting an active stretch of weather as the troughing slings through the Upper Midwest. But the EPS family highlights a strong ridge over the Northland that would shunt the activity to our south. Will have to monitor to see if a better consensus emerges.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions persist through tonight. A few sprinkles are possible at INL this afternoon. An area of showers and virga developed over NW MN and NW Ontario over the past few hours. The showers are vigorous enough to produce occasional lightning. Will monitor trends over the next hour and may need to introduce VCTS to INL. South-southwest winds will be gusty this afternoon into this evening. The low- level jet over the Northland will remain in place this afternoon although wind shear in the lowest 2kft will be less than 30 knots. Low- level wind shear returns tonight as temperatures cool and the boundary layer decouples from the stronger winds aloft. The potential for IFR ceilings creeps into the forecast Sunday morning. Confidence in IFR ceilings is highest at INL. HIB, BRD, DLH, and HYR all have a 20-30% chance of seeing IFR ceilings Sunday morning, so have left IFR conditions out of the forecast for now. LLWS will end as the low-level jet axis advances eastward Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast over the South Shore waters this afternoon and tonight. The cool water temperatures compared to the well above normal air temperatures over NW WI and portions of east-central MN will create a stable layer over the lake away from the shore. The strongest winds will be found along the immediate shoreline areas. Small Craft Advisories may need to be expanded to include portions of the North Shore from Duluth to Silver Bay if wind gusts of 20-25 knots can materialize there. Wind gusts will subside Sunday morning. A cool front is forecast to stall over the Northland for Monday. Winds will turn northeasterly and strengthen making conditions hazardous for smaller vessels. There is a 40% chance of gales of 35-40 knots over the Outer Apostle Islands and portions of the southwest arm of Lake Superior. Waves wil build to 3 to 11 feet with the highest wave heights over the Outer Apostle Islands and from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. Wind gusts gradually weaken Monday night into Tuesday morning. Rain chances will increase during that time. The combination of rain and cool water temperatures may lead to dense fog development Tuesday morning. Another period of hazardous wind and waves is possible late next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Expect south-southwest winds to remain gusty into this evening while RH values recover to 65-95% overnight. A cold front will slowly advance eastward Sunday and will bring cloudy skies, cooler temperatures, and a chance of showers for far northern Minnesota. Areas of central Minnesota east into northwest Wisconsin will see warm temperatures and dry conditions once again, although winds will be less gusty. Afternoon RH values will range from around 30 percent over portions of the St. Croix Valley in NW WI to the middle 60s in north-central Minnesota. Winds will gradually veer westerly and northwesterly through the day as the cold front progresses east. The front is expected to stall over the Northland which will provide well above normal temperatures Monday south of a line from Hinckley to Mercer where highs will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Cloudy skies and rain chances will keep conditions less favorable for fire north of that line. Light rain showers should expand over all of the Northland Monday night into Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures and warm low temperatures are shown below for today and Sunday, October 10th and 11th, where the forecast temperature is within three degrees of approaching the record temperature.

High Temperatures:

10/10: Record Forecast KDLH: 82/1938 82 KINL: 80/1955 79 KBRD: 85/1928 84 KHIB: 81/1938 81 KASX: 86/1938 86

10/11: Record Forecast KASX: 86/2015 85

Warm Minimum Temperatures:

10/11: Record Forecast KDLH: 58/1938 60 KBRD: 58/1997 63 KHIB: 55/1938 60 KASX: 58/2015 64

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-145>148- 150.