textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A light wintry mix expected this morning, mainly north of the Iron Range, with up to 1 inch of snowfall and a light glaze possible.

- After a brief break in precipitation, more widespread rainfall returns tonight into Thursday morning, with a wintry mix expected for the Arrowhead and North Shore.

- Warm and drier trend for the weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Warm front is lifting through the area tonight, and seeing weak precipitation returns along and north of that boundary as the low level jet increases and a weak disturbance aloft moves along the boundary. With a dry layer at the surface, precipitation is having a hard time making it to the surface, and only see a couple ob sites/area web cams picking up precipitation. That low level jet is advecting warmer air into the area, with a warm nose strengthening on forecast soundings. This will allow for some melting and possible wintry mixes. The best chance of any snow accumulations will be at the tip of the Arrowhead and along the North Shore, where southeast to easterly flow off the lake will help with uplift. Amounts will be low, with less than 1 inch of snow. With that warm nose, cannot rule out a light glaze in a spots in the Arrowhead where surface temps are below freezing.

There will be a break in precipitation for much of today, as this wave moves to the east. Temperatures continue to moderate with highs in the mid 60s from the Brainerd Lakes region eastward into northwest WI this afternoon, decreasing to the lower 40s at the tip of the Arrowhead. Tonight, the next wave arrives with a weak surface low moving eastward from the Plains toward the Midwest. This will pull a cold front southward as high pressure expands southward through central Canada. Light precipitation spreads west to east across the Northland late tonight, starting out as rain for most of the area, with a possible brief period of snow on the back side as precipitation ends Thursday morning. For the Arrowhead and the North Shore, there is a better chance of a wintry mix, including freezing rain. Will carry a light glaze and ice accumulations up to 0.10 inch for portions of the Arrowhead. The potential for any ice accumulations is fairly low confidence at this time, given the uncertainties in how quickly the warm nose erodes with the column cooling as low level winds become northwesterly. Will hold off on any headlines for now.

High pressure slides southeastward through the Upper Midwest for the end of the week, leading to dry conditions into early next week. Cooler temperatures expected through Saturday morning, before temperatures moderate through early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A passing weather system will bring a low chance of light precipitation (a wintry mix) to the Arrowhead this morning, with little to no impacts at forecast terminals. VFR cigs for all terminals through much of today, with southeast winds at 5-10kts this morning become southwest this afternoon, with gusts up to 20kts.

With increasing low level winds, LLWS is also possible this morning at DLH, and again tonight as winds remain elevated.

As the next system approaches the area, MVFR cigs spread into this area tonight, with chances for light precipitation arriving late in the forecast period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 148 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Winds become northeast to northerly today, but remain at 15 knots or less. Stronger northerly winds are expected for late tonight into early Thursday, with gusts to around 20kts. There is a small chance (20-30%) of winds reaching advisory criteria Thursday along parts of the North Shore. Otherwise, no hazardous marine conditions are expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.