textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northland through the day Saturday, with the best chance across northern Minnesota and the International Border.

- Next chance for precipitation Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A few stronger storms could be possible.

- Near normal temperatures persist.

UPDATE

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

High pressure was centered just northeast of Lake Superior early this morning with weak low pressure over western North Dakota. This area of low pressure will lift northeast today and bring a cold front across Minnesota. Light shower activity will remain possible through the early morning hours with better chances for showers arriving after daybreak ahead of a warm front moving into central Minnesota. Showers look to clear out most of the area by early afternoon with isolated thunderstorms being possible for the late afternoon and evening hours ahead of the cold front/occluded front. CAMs have trended slightly higher in terms of QPF this evening, so have adjusted rainfall amounts slightly upward. Much of northeastern Minnesota may see a quarter to half on inch of rainfall with isolated higher amounts north and west of the Iron Range. Still, with widespread drought conditions across the region and convection to the south possibly robbing moisture, confidence is lower than average on getting this much rainfall. The rest of the forecast looks good with minimal changes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

While conditions are fairly mundane this afternoon, increasing clouds and chances for precipitation are expected overnight and through the day Saturday. As the tip of an upper level ridge propagates over our area, a return of moisture along with some 500mb vort maxes should be enough to spur the development of areas of scattered rain showers with a weak surface low pressure system. All together, the forcing is weak and ongoing convection to the south could limit the amount of available moisture. Most rainfall amounts will probably be 0.1-0.25" or less. A narrow swath of instability could spur some thunderstorm development but no severe storms are expected. Precipitation activity will likely come in the form of on and off light to moderate rain showers beginning late tonight into early Saturday morning and continuing through most of the day and possibly into the evening. Most precipitation should dissipate overnight into Sunday. However, warm late summer water temperatures on Lake Superior will be met with cool overnight temperatures sweeping in from the northwest Saturday night. This could lead to some light lake effect rain along the South Shore Sunday morning before air temperatures warm up.

Beyond the morning lake effect, Sunday should be a mostly dry day with dropping dew points. That drier airmass sticks around through Monday midday before the next area of increased PWATs starts to push in from the Dakotas. That moisture should converge along a cold front stemming from a shortwave disturbance to our north and sweep over the Northland late Monday into Tuesday. Pockets of instability mixed with 40-50 knots bulk shear may be able to develop some stronger to isolated severe storms, but time of day (overnight) could limit the severe threat.

As we remain on the north side of the ridge through the 7 day period, expect temperatures to stay largely right around normal with high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions currently in place will deteriorate this morning as lower ceilings and showers push into the region. Ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR with times of IFR with MVFR visibilities in showers and drizzle. Showers will taper off during the afternoon with some thunderstorms developing for the late afternoon and evening hours. The best chance for any storms will be at BRD and HYR, but overall confidence is low on this occurring. Fog is then expected to develop at DLH, HIB, and INL during the evening with MVFR to IFR or lower conditions. Winds will remain at around 10 knots or less through the period starting out southeasterly then becoming northwesterly late in the period as a cold front passes.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Winds will be easterly at 5 to 15 knots today with gusts to 20 knots possible in the western arm of the lake. Periods of showers will be seen through the day with perhaps a few thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. No strong or severe storms are expected. A weak cold front moves through tonight with winds becoming northwesterly for Sunday at 5 to 15 knots. The strongest gusts Sunday will be along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Winds will then slowly shift out of the southwest by Monday afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Mainly cloudy skies with periods of showers will keep RH values above 50% today. Models have trended upward in terms of rainfall amounts with much of northeastern Minnesota possibly seeing a quarter to a half an inch of accumulation with isolated higher amounts to the northwest of the Iron Range. A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, but are not expected to be strong or severe. Sunday will be drier with northwest flow in place. Afternoon RH values will likely fall into the 40 to 50% range, but may trend lower if rainfall amounts Saturday are less than expected. Continued dry for Monday before the next chance of rainfall arrives for Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.