textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate snow comes to an end this morning, with strong west winds expected through this afternoon. Gusts of 30 to 45 mph are possible which could lead to widespread blowing snow. Chilly temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Next chance for precipitation arrives early Monday morning into Tuesday with mixed precipitation possible. Any accumulations look to be fairly light.

- Temperatures warm through the week with widespread high temperatures above freezing likely Wednesday and Thursday. Some precipitation is possible mid to late week but uncertainty remains very high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

A triple barreled low stretching from southwestern Ontario to the Oklahoma panhandle is responsible for our sensible weather early this morning, with light snow across central MN and into the MN Arrowhead and NW WI. This snow should continue to shift eastward fairly quickly and fully depart the area by mid morning. Some southwesterly flow over Lake Superior is leading to lake/terrain enhanced snowfall for portions of the North Shore and a Winter Weather Advisory will remain in effect for southern Cook County through 6AM. On the backside of the northernmost low pressure (currently sitting ~992mb), a tight pressure gradient will bring another blast of westerly winds across the Northland through this morning, with peak wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph by early afternoon. There is some suggestion that wind gusts of over 45 mph are possible (50-70% chance) for the Twin Ports and North Shore and a Wind Advisory may be needed should that signal continue. All this wind will combine with the light snow that has recently fallen and could lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow through early this evening.

Those westerly winds should manage to usher in some more cold air across the area, with overnight lows falling back below zero for most of the region into Sunday morning. Outside of being a bit on the chilly side, Sunday should be a fairly pleasant day with chances for sun and minimal wind as high pressure sits over the area for more than 6 hours.

We get back on the weather roller coaster into the week, however. Large scale ridging over much of the central CONUS will allow for WAA and a push of moisture as a low squeezes out of the mid Rockies through the day Monday. Most models are in agreement that this should push a warm frontal feature into the Upper Midwest Monday morning which could bring a quick little burst of snow of an inch or so, but there are still some disagreements on where this might be. At this point, it looks to be a south-of-Highway-2 event but some models keep it south of our CWA almost entirely. Through the day Monday a clipper skirting along the Int. Border picks up some of that synoptic support and moisture, pulling chances for precipitation across northern MN Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Models are still trying to work out just how much atmospheric support this portion of the system might have and where the column will be fully saturated. Most solutions are fairly weak with light QPF of a trace to 0.1". With the WAA there is some concern for a mix of precipitation that could include freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow.

Through the rest of the week our jet stream continues to arc further into Canada bringing an additional push of warm air into the Northland just in time for the Christmas holiday mid to late week. This will likely result in above freezing high temperatures Wednesday/Thursday but there is some uncertainty on just how warm it could get. Global model solutions for late week system tracks are all over the place, which will influence where on the temperature gradient we fall. Some of the warmest solutions show possible highs over 40F , but on the cooler side we're looking at highs only a couple degrees over 32F. There is some suggestion of a chance of precipitation in the Thursday-Friday time period but the ensemble tracks on this system absolutely shotgun across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest leaving us with very low confidence on any particular solution.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Mix of conditions out there early this morning, but predominantly MVFR at all terminals except BRD. HIB, DLH, and HYR should see some scattered VFR conditions through the day. Some light snow is possible for HYR through sunrise which could drop visibility at times. Some snow could sneak across the International Border affecting INL through this morning. Currently, guidance suggests that cloud decks remain MVFR for a large portion of the area through Saturday but start to scatter out. Strong southwesterly winds become westerly through the morning and gust 25-30 knots through the afternoon before starting to weaken. These winds could lead to areas of blowing snow at times.

MARINE

Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Strong southerly winds early this morning will continue to turn to the southwest and then the west through the day today. Wind speeds and gusts will likely rapidly pick up through this morning into early afternoon with the westerly winds and widespread gales are expected. A couple storm force gusts could be possible in the Outer Apostle Islands. Along with cooler temperatures, heavy freezing spray is also likely especially for the South Shore and Apostle Islands. Winds and waves should taper off through this evening and into Sunday morning. After this event, there are no expected gales for at least a couple days.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for MNZ021. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LSZ121-141>148-150. Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-141>148- 150. Gale Warning until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from noon today to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from noon today to 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ145>148-150.