textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly sunny today with very dry conditions expected again. Lighter winds will be on tap but with the lack of recent rains will lead to near-critical fire weather conditions again.

- Rain and storm chances (50-70%) Monday night and Tuesday and again on Thursday (20-30%). - Cooler conditions continue with a warming trend coming later in the week with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s by Friday.

UPDATE

Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Today will be the driest of the week as surface high pressure moves toward the Great Lakes. Winds are expected to be 15 mph or less with the high pressure nearby. However, some gusts up to 20 mph is not out of the question from mixing. High temperatures will recover nicely into the 50s and 60s with southerly winds.

Chances for showers and storms increase tonight into Tuesday as a warm front lifts into the area. A cap in place will prevent storms from becoming surface based, but elevated storms will have high enough mid level lapse rates to produce small hail. This cap will remain in place into Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves through the area, keeping storms elevated with the chance for small hail. Confidence has increased in timing of the system as models

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet Pattern This Weekend and Monday:

Surface high pressure is nudging in from the Canadian Prairies today with northwest winds still streaming across the surface. Cyclonic flow aloft mixed with below freezing 850 temperatures managed to generate some isolated snow showers across far northern MN this morning with some lingering light rain and sprinkles possible through the afternoon. Overall, most of the region can expect another relatively cool and dry day with diurnally driven cumulus populating in the afternoon. Overnight, the high pressure will move directly overhead leading to calm winds and clear skies. Rapid radiational cooling is expected with low temperatures for Monday morning expected to be in the 20s.

Monday surface high pressure transitions over towards the Great Lakes which will allow southerly winds to return to the Northland. A warm front will start to advance in from the west but current guidance doesn't have the boundary moving into our CWA until late Monday. Still, the southerly winds will help to warm the region back into the 50s and 60s. Model soundings still show quite a bit of dry air up through the mid levels with high clouds starting to roll in ahead of the next weather system. Min RHs may drop as low as 15% in areas that remain cloud free. Fortunately enhanced winds are not expected to coincide with these very dry conditions.

Next chance for Rain Tuesday:

Early Tuesday morning an upper level trough digs across southern Manitoba with a pair of surface lows expected to move across the Upper Midwest. A warm front propelled by a strong low level jet will cross through the Northland bringing rain chances of 50-70% across the region. Weak MUCAPE will accompany these showers which may induce some embedded thunderstorms. Pockets of steep mid level lapse rates could lead to small hail with any more robust cells that develop.

Both the Euro and GFS are starting to lean towards strengthening the surface low moving over central MN and having it in the vicinity of NW WI by Tuesday afternoon. This could introduce some surface based instability for NW WI as a cold front swings through increasing the chances for stronger storms. However, low track and placement remain inconsistent between models runs so confidence remains low at this time.

Midweek-End of the Work Week:

Cool high pressure briefly sets up for Wednesday leading to a quiet day with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upper level ridge axis will push past the region for the latter part of the work week which will allow for warmer temperatures to return. Highs will climb into the 70s with some areas seeing 80s by Friday. The influx of warmer air and southwest flow will also prompt some increased rain and thunderstorm potential. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is suggesting a return of a low level jet as a low pressure system moves out of the Northern Plains late Thursday. For now, we are carrying a 20-30% chance for showers and to round out the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. Rain showers and storms are possible tonight with a warm front moving through. Confidence is not high enough whether these showers and storms will lower conditions, but MVFR visibilities and brief MVFR/IFR ceilings are not out of the question. At the same time, a LLJ will set up with the precipitation and will last into early morning before dissipating once precipitation passes. Calm winds this morning will increase out of the south to southeast throughout the day, but will remain below 15 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Light variable winds today will become southerly and eventually easterly by tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected over western Lake Superior late tonight through Tuesday. Easterly winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and waves to 2 to 4 feet on Tuesday, which may require a Small Craft Advisory along the far North Shore. Winds shift to the northwest Tuesday night and remain gusty.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Today will be the driest of the week with minimum relative humidity values falling into the low 20s with isolated upper teens. Winds will generally be out of the south at 15 mph or less, but daytime mixing could bring localized gusts up to 20 mph. Rain chances increase tonight into Tuesday. Only light accumulations are expected, but a few spots could see a couple tenths of an inch from moderate rain under storms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.