textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds diminish this evening with dry conditions overnight into Wednesday.

- A large winter system will impact the region Wednesday evening through Thursday night with heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, and mixed precipitation all possible. Strong northeasterly winds off Lake Superior will lead to blowing snow and gales on the lake.

- A second storm will impact the region for Friday into Saturday with another round of heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, and mixed precipitation all possible. Travel impacts are likely with both systems.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Low pressure was located over southern Lake Michigan this afternoon with a trough of low pressure extending back to the northwest into northern Wisconsin, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and into southwestern Manitoba. Snow showers were observed on radar north of the International Border. High pressure was located across the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains and was building eastward. Drier air associated with the high was eroding away at cloud cover across the Northland. A few light snow showers may still move across the Arrowhead this afternoon, but no accumulations are expected from this activity. Lows tonight will fall into the teens and 20s. Dry conditions are expected through at least midday Wednesday with highs in the 30s and lower 40s.

A trough will move through the Intermountain West on Wednesday leading to surface cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado during the afternoon. Precipitation from this low will start to spread across the Northland during the afternoon hours Wednesday with heavier precipitation arriving Wednesday evening. While starting out as snow, warmer air aloft will arrive overnight leading to sleet and freezing rain mixing with snow starting in southern areas after midnight with the mix spreading across all of northwest Wisconsin and from the Brainerd area to the Twin Ports by daybreak Thursday. As the day progresses Thursday, mixed precipitation will continue across northwest Wisconsin as the mix pivots across eastern/northeastern Minnesota through the afternoon. As temperatures cool Thursday evening, a changeover to all snow is likely as precipitation tapers off. There are a few caveats with this system in regards to how much snow and ice accumulation will occur and where the highest amounts will be. Forecast trends have continued to be slightly more to the north with the track of the low. This mirrors trends we've seen all winter only to have the track end up more southerly at the last minute. Very strong easterly winds off Lake Superior are also expected for much of the event leading to both lake and terrain enhancement in the Twin Ports area and up the North Shore. Also working against snow accumulation will be early April sun angles and the heavy, wet consistency. Our snowfall amounts don't really take into consideration these last two caveats, so observed snowfall amounts will likely be lower given melting and compaction. A large swath of 6 to 9 inches is expected across northeastern Minnesota into the South Shore area of northwest Wisconsin with enhanced amounts to 10 to 12 inches along the North Shore. Icing of a few hundredths of an inch will be possible along the North and South Shores with higher ice accumulations from Washburn County eastward into Sawyer, southern Ashland, southern Iron and Price counties where a tenth to a quarter of an inch of ice will be possible. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the entire Northland to account for the uncertainty, especially along the northwestern edge of the system.

After a brief lull on Friday, another trough/upper low will emerge from the Rockies with surface low pressure moving from the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday. This will bring another round of heavy, wet snow and mixed precipitation to the Northland starting as early as Friday afternoon and continuing into Sunday night. This system looks to be mainly snow across northeastern Minnesota with more in the way of mix across northwest Wisconsin. Details on this system are less clear at this time as we have to get through the first system, but this is also looking to be very impactful with heavy snow and icy roadways possible as we head into the holiday travel period. Check back for future updates on this next system as it may be a repeat of the Wednesday-Thursday system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MVFR conditions prevail across the region as a trough of low pressure remains overhead. Precipitation has moved off to the east and is not expected to return through the TAF period. Ceilings will improve to VFR this evening and will remain there through at least Wednesday morning. Some MVFR ceilings may return at DLH around daybreak, however. Northwest winds will gust to 15 to 25 knots through early evening before becoming light and variable overnight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Northwesterly winds this evening will turn northeasterly overnight and increase ahead of a system that will bring widespread rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix to the region starting Wednesday evening. Northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots will be in place this evening with waves subsiding. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 10pm due to waves. The east-northeasterly winds increase on Wednesday to 15 to 25 knots with gales to 30 to 35 knots Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The strongest winds are expected at the head of Lake Superior. Winds further increase to 20 to 30 knots Thursday with gales to 35 to 45 knots into Thursday evening. As the low passes to the south, winds will become northerly Thursday night and diminish to 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots by Friday morning. Another period of easterly gales is then expected for Friday night into Saturday morning as another low moves through the region. In addition to the wind and waves Wednesday into Thursday, snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain, and wintry mix will all be possible at times leading to reduced visibilities and possible icing.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>143-146-147-150. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for LSZ140. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for LSZ141>147-150. Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday evening through late Thursday night for LSZ142.