textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storms return Monday. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for north central MN. Some storms will be possible in the morning but the better chances will be in the late afternoon and overnight period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Onshore flow from overnight has lead to some areas of fog at the head of the Lake and into portions of the NW WI. This fog will quickly erode after sunrise. Surface high pressure will be moving across the region today providing us with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Winds will also be shifting from out of the east to out of the south, the exception will be areas close to Lake Superior where onshore flow will continue and keep things cooler.

Monday/Tuesday:

High pressure gets shunted off to the southeast on Monday allowing for broad southerly winds and warm air advection to take hold of the region. During the morning hours a strong low level jet is expected to develop across the Northern Plains which will increase the chances of some elevated storms to develop in the Red River Valley. A couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE with a bulk shear of 40-50kts could lead to severe storms that generate large hail. The current suite of high res guidance favors this being farther west outside of our CWA where the HREF is highlighting some swaths of higher updraft helicity. There is a fair amount of uncertainty on whether this onset of morning storms can hold together as they march into NE MN. However, if they do hold together the convective parameter space looks less favorable for strong storms in our CWA and may end up being light showers.

Activity is expected to ramp back up in the afternoon and evening. Despite the morning storm activity, the region will see ample recovery with southerly flow promoting warm advection and pushing MLCAPE upwards of 1000-2000 J/kg. A cold front will move east through the late afternoon and evening period triggering convection. Bulk shear will still be bountiful with an upper level jet rounding and upper level low moving into Manitoba. Supercells will be possible capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A tornado can't be ruled out at this time, but the better streamwise vorticity looks to be over the Red River Valley, which then fades as the storm mode becomes more linear as it tracks into our CWA. Showers and storms will continue to move across the region through the overnight period with the severe risk fading in the early morning hours. Thereafter, showers and a few weaker storms will continue through the region Tuesday as the cold front pushes west to east.

Mid week:

High pressure over the region for Wednesday temperatures staying in the 70s. Temperatures will slowly increase through the end of the work week with intermittent rain chances possible as the upper level pattern turns more zonal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Satellite shows onshore flow from Lake Superior this morning across NW WI and the low lying areas at the head of the Lake. Both DLH/HYR could see a brief stint of LIFR ceilings this at the start of the forecast period. Conditions will improve back to VFR quickly this morning shortly after sunrise. Quiet conditions through the rest of the forecast period with winds turning from out of the east to out of the south through the day, with DLH being the exception.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Northeast winds will increase again today in the afternoon but are expected to remain less than 25 kts. Waves will build to 2-3ft at the head of the Lake. Monday winds will turn to out of the east around 5-10 kts. Monday night showers and storms will enter from the west with winds changing to out of the southwest around 10-15 kts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

High pressure over the region today with low fire weather concerns. Winds will be shifting from out of the east to out of the north with the exception being near Lake Superior where winds will remain out of the east. Min RHs will largely be in the 40s, but can't rule out some spots that get abundant sunshine dropping to around 35%. Rain and storm chances return Monday. Looking at potentially two different rounds. The first one in the morning will likely be the weakest in the batch. Late afternoon and overnight we could see strong to severe storms with a cold front marching west to east.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-148.