textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm front lifts into the Brainerd Lakes region and NW WI tonight bringing light snow and a brief window of freezing rain.

- More light snow for northern MN Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

- Significant shake up in the latest forecast guidance for Thursday and Friday with increasing precipitation chances. There still remains a lot of uncertainty but worth monitoring over the coming days if you have holiday travel plans.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Current Conditions/Tonight:

Surface high pressure is working it's way across the Midwest this morning leading to fairly quiet weather day across the Northland. A mixture of clouds and sun today will see temperatures warm into the teens and twenties. While that isn't too different from yesterday, the lack of wind will make it much more pleasant for any who need to venture outside today. Additionally, while winds will be light and variable in the morning, the high pressure drifts to the southeast in the afternoon allowing for some warmer southerly winds to stream back into the region.

Overnight, a warm front will lift in from the south and bring some light precipitation with it. There still remains some uncertainty when it comes to precipitation type with this frontal passage. The NAM and several of the high res guidance would suggest a warm layer aloft that would prevent dendrites from growing. Leading to some freezing rain chances from the Brainerd Lakes region down towards Pine. That being said, the signal is not very strong and is limited to between 3AM and 6AM. Small window, but could see a light glaze of ice for the morning commute. Farther east where there is more cold air aloft we will see all snow for NW WI. Lack of a moisture source will keep QPF on the low side with snow totals staying less then an inch. The best chance for at least an inch of snow is southern Price county, but even that is only a 50% chance.

Monday:

The warm front will be exiting the region through the morning hours with snow tapering off by noon. Fairly quiet for the most of the day with highs climbing to above freezing across our south. A weak clipper moving across Manitoba and into Ontario late Monday will bring some snow across our north. The current track of the system looks to be far enough north that precipitation type won't be a concern despite some of the unusually warm air in the region. Snow looks to enter from the west in the late afternoon and exits Tuesday morning. The fast moving nature and lack of a moisture source will keep overall totals low. The Borderlands can expect around a half an inch with the rest of northern MN likely just seeing a dusting of snow.

Tuesday / Wednesday:

Benign weather for Tuesday and Wednesday after the weak clipper exits the region Tuesday morning. There will be a cool push of air Tuesday behind the clipper with a wide range of highs for the day. The coldest will be in the teens in our northwest and warm into the low 30s as you head southeast. Surface high pressure sliding across Canada Wednesday will allow for temperatures to climb into the 20s across our north and low 30s for our south.

Christmas / Friday:

The 00Z suite of guidance has shown quite a noticeable shift in the weather pattern for the Thursday and Friday timeframe. Both the Euro and the GEFS are now showing hints of a low moving out of the northern Rockies and across the Midwest. The GEFS has the system spinning through on Christmas while the Euro is close to a day later on Friday. The origin and the track of this low would suggest a boost in QPF. Looking at the ensemble tables compared against climatology shows that PWATs have increased from the 90th percentile to over the 99th percentile with this last update. This amount of QPF paired with the synoptic forcing of this low pressure could impact holiday travel plans. Given the large differences in timing and location confidence is on the low side at the moment as to how things will play out. It is noteworthy that the NBM increased PoPs by 20-30% across the region for Christmas and also brought the temperatures down that were previously trending towards 40. For now, we need to see if the next model runs sustain this recent trend. Since this is the first significant shift we've seen, the goal is to see better agreement between the Euro and GFS regarding the system's arrival, which appears likely to coincide with holiday travel.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

VFR stratus clouds are moving across the Northland this morning. Clouds will slowly diminish through the day as surface high pressure migrates from NW WI towards IN. Light winds today will gradually turn to out of the south this afternoon. Overnight, a warm front lifts into the BRD region and NW WI. This has the potential to produce some light freezing rain over BRD. Not expecting much as far as accumulations go, but could get a light glaze. Later tomorrow morning HYR may deal with light snow and visibility reductions.

MARINE

Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

The never ending gusty winds across Lake Superior have finally settled down with northwest winds of around 5 to 10 knots this morning. These winds will shift to out of the southwest this afternoon. By Monday winds will start to stream in from the east but remain in the 5 to 10 knot range. Speeds are not expected to pick up again until Tuesday when northwesterlies may lead to hazardous conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.