textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry weather today.

- Light rain and lake-effect snow chances return Tuesday night through early Friday morning. A few inches of snow will likely fall for parts of the South Shore, with most accumulations on Wednesday night.

- Cooler weather to end the week, then warming up over the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 209 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

CURRENT OVERNIGHT INTO TODAY:

Skies are clearing across the Northland early this morning as a high pressure center moves through to our south. Expect low temperatures this morning to bottom out in the upper 20s to upper 30s, warmest near Lake Superior.

Most of today remains dry as the high pressure gradually slides east towards the lower Great Lakes. Cloud cover will be on the increase late this morning and afternoon ahead of an approaching quick clipper system. Expect generally light westerly winds and mild high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s north to mid 50s south.

THIS EVENING - WEDNESDAY MORNING:

A quick clipper system and mesoscale frontogenetic rain band passes through the area this evening through early Wednesday morning. Temperatures should remain warm enough as this precipitation moves through for it to remain as all rain. Areas that see measurable rain should largely be for the Iron Range and areas south in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, though amounts should be around one tenth of an inch or less.

WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY AND BEYOND:

No substantial changes occurred in the period from Wednesday through early next week. After the early Wednesday morning rain exits, a lobe of vorticity aloft and northerly winds will usher in colder air into the Northland. CAMs show some more widely scattered shower activity in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon and evening on Wednesday, starting out mainly in the form of rain during the day, and transitioning to a rain/snow mix Wednesday evening before ending. Accumulations look minimal. Then, 850 mb to Lake Superior surface temperature differences of around 15-20 degC develop for Wednesday evening into Friday morning, kicking off lake- effect precipitation in northwest Wisconsin, mainly for the South Shore snow belts. This lake- effect precipitation starts out as a wintry mix Wednesday evening, then turns to mainly snow Wednesday night through early Friday morning before ending as drier air moves in. See the "Discussion" section below for additional details regarding the mid to late week lake-effect precipitation and drier, gradual warming pattern for this coming weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The sun is out this afternoon for most places except the tip of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin who are still dealing with remnant cloud cover from the warm air advection ahead of a passing cold front. A drier air mass will follow tonight into Tuesday with high pressure passing by to our south. Expect quiet weather and another mild day on Tuesday with highs in the 50s.

A quick clipper with a mesoscale rain band is still looking likely to pass through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Not expecting much for impacts from this as temperatures should be warm enough to keep this all rain. There is a possibility that the exact track of the rain could change a little north or south, but right now it's roughly targeting areas along the US-2 corridor.

Following this rain band, another cold front will pass through, and this one will pack a bit more of a punch. This will bring some 850 hPa temperatures down to around -10C, and with the lake still 15-20C warmer than that, lake-effect snow is expected along the South Shore Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds will be north to north-northeasterly, so in addition to the usual Iron County suspects, parts of Ashland and eastern Bayfield counties might be seeing some snow accumulations as well. SLRs probably won't be too high with this, which may negate accumulations some, but lake-effect can often overachieve. The most likely period for accumulating snow will be Wednesday evening through Thursday morning when temperatures will fall below freezing. GFS/ECMWF ensembles are variable in QPF amounts, but many around 0.2-0.3". Depending on what SLRs end up being, at minimum we could see 1-2" of snow, but can't rule out some locally higher amounts around 3". Most likely locations will be in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties. Once temperatures rise above freezing later Thursday morning, lingering light snow or rain showers will be possible, but it should start to melt on contact at that point. Lingering light snow is possible Thursday night, mainly for Iron county, and a passing trough aloft could enhance that slightly. Drier air will also be moving in with flow becoming a bit closer to north- northwesterly, so accumulations should be very minimal.

Elsewhere, look for dry/quiet weather with highs in the 30s Thursday/Friday. As we go into the weekend, ridging over the western CONUS will move east with southerly flow developing. As of now, conditions are looking quiet with dry weather expected. Temperatures will start warming up with highs in the 40s by Sunday. We may remain in a pretty quiet dry weather pattern until sometime next week after the upper ridge passes by and we get into a pattern more favorable for Colorado lows on the back side.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Clear skies and calm to light westerly winds for this morning. VFR ceilings begin to push in from the west this afternoon, with overcast mid-level clouds this evening. Winds continue to remain generally light through today and then turn calm to light and variable tonight. A quick-moving, weakly forced area of light rain moves through from west to east from north-central Minnesota through northwest Wisconsin this evening through early Wednesday morning, with any one location only seeing about 3 to 6 hours of light rainfall. The rain potential is generally for HIB/Iron Range and areas to the south.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 358 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

UPDATE: Wind gusts along the North shore have dropped to 20 knots or less. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect through very early this morning as northwest wind gusts to around 25 knots along the North Shore gradually decrease into this morning and today. Winds back to westerly/southwesterly today, light out of the west this evening, and then light out of the northwest tonight. Winds veer to northerly Wednesday through Friday, with increased gusts to 20-25 knots Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, with elevated waves lingering into Thursday afternoon for the Outer Apostle Islands. Wind gusts continue at around 20-25 knots near Grand Portage through early Friday morning, as well. Some hazardous conditions for small craft look likely during this timeframe.

Light rain is expected Tuesday night, then light lake-effect rain and snow mix Wednesday evening, with a transition to all light lake-effect snow for portions of the South Shore from Wednesday night through early Friday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 209 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Fire weather concerns generally remain low the rest of this week into weekend as minimum relative humidity values generally in the 40 to 60% range most days, and 50 to 70% on Wednesday and Sunday. There is also potential for a few pockets of min RH down to 35% in east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.

Northwest winds of 20-25 mph linger into very early this morning for portions of the North Shore. Generally westerly winds with gusts of 10-15 mph are forecast for today, calm tonight, then turn northerly Wednesday and Thursday with gusts of 10 to 18 mph.

Rain-free conditions persist through daytime today. Then, tonight into early Wednesday morning, light rain moves through for areas mainly along and south of the Iron Range, with accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch or less. Colder air working into the area for late Wednesday through early Friday will also lead to light lake-effect precipitation for the South Shore. This looks to be a rain/snow mix Wednesday evening before transitioning to all snow Wednesday night through early Friday morning. Snow accumulation potential still looks light, mostly 0.5-2" for the South Shore snowbelts, though portions of the higher terrain in Ashland and Iron counties could see pockets of snow to around 3 inches. Liquid-equivalent precipitation from this looks to largely be in the 0.2-0.3" range. Rain-free and gradually warming conditions return for this coming weekend into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.