textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry for most today with isolated showers across north central MN late this afternoon and evening.

- Temperatures warm above normal through the weekend and into next week with hot and humid conditions expected. Heat headlines may be needed.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms begin Sunday and continue into mid next week. Severe storms will be possible, especially Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Watching high clouds stream into the region this morning, which should prevent significant fog development and improve locations where light fog has already developed. For most of the Northland, quiet weather is on tap for Friday, with surface high pressure centered over Hudson Bay extending southward into the Great Lakes. Winds from the south to southeast will start to advect warmer and more moist air northward. A shortwave will ride through a weak ridge aloft this afternoon and evening. With increasing moisture and low level winds, could see isolated showers as this wave moves through the area, mainly west of a line from INL to BRD. Highs will be in the 70s, with coolest temps near Lake Superior. Temperatures tonight will be in the 50s for most of the area. A few locations at the head of the lake will dip into the upper 40s, as a result of northeasterly winds off the lake.

An upper ridge moves into the Upper Midwest for Saturday with southerly flow persisting. This will bring highs Saturday in the 70s and lower 80s with upper 60s along the North Shore. As the ridge axis shifts overhead on Sunday, a surface warm front will lift through the Northland bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. The airmass across the Northland will become increasingly unstable through the day, with steepening lapse rates and 50kts of bulk shear, while deep moisture advects northward. One concern will be the potential for a low level cap, given the significant warm advection occurring around 800mb that could prevent storm growth. Cannot ignore the dynamic and potentially severe airmass, and will begin messaging a greater potential for strong to severe storms on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Monday looks to be the most interesting day of forecast period. Low pressure across the Plains will move northeastward in association with a mid-level jet streak on the western edge of the ridge shifting into the western Great Lakes. Instability is expected to build ahead of this low pressure system and associated cold front through the day with highs reaching into the 80s and lower 90s. Our forecast is on the high end of guidance due to a warm bias in some of the models, so highs may trend a few degrees cooler. However, with readings still in the 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s and potentially 70s, hot and very muggy conditions are expected and heat headlines may be needed. In regards to storms Monday, they will be possible across much of northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. However, forecast soundings show a stout cap in place across the region. Should that cap break, all modes of severe weather will be possible and the SPC has introduced a 15% risk area across most of the Duluth CWA for this period. The threat for showers and storms will continue into mid-week with continued hot and humid conditions. Heavy rainfall will also be possible during this time with PWATs reaching above the 90th percentile for late June.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions expected for all terminals. Some fog is possible, mainly at sites near bodies of water and HYR, as fog rolls inland off Lake Superior. Given low confidence and probabilities of impacts at this time at any terminals, will carry a VFR forecast. Winds will remain light tonight, and will increase to 5-10 kts out of the southeast Friday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Light and variable winds this morning will increase from the northeast to east this afternoon, at 5 to 15 knots, strongest at the head of the lake. Easterly winds will continue into the weekend and get stronger each day. Gusts to around 25 knots will be possible Saturday afternoon at the head of the lake, and again Sunday for most nearshore zones. Conditions hazardous to small craft are possible. A warm front will lift across western Lake Superior Sunday into Sunday night and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

High pressure over Lake Superior will keep most locations dry on Friday, although some showers are possible across far western areas late this afternoon and evening. Southerly flow on the back side of the high will bring warmer temperatures and more humid air into the region. Most of the Northland will remain above 40% for afternoon RH values, but areas north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead may fall into the 30-40% range with moisture taking longer to reach those areas. Winds will remain under 15 mph. Temperatures will warm through the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Saturday night and Sunday as a warm front lifts northward. RH values will be above 35% on Saturday and above 50% on Sunday. Winds may gust as high as 20-25 mph this weekend. Very warm and humid conditions are expected heading into next week with multiple chances for showers and storms. Strong to severe storms look possible Sunday and again on Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.