textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to heavy snow, gusty winds, and some blizzard conditions are expected through Sunday for parts of the Northland, as strong low pressure moves through the region.

- This will be an exceptionally rare and impactful storm for parts of interior northwest Wisconsin where snow totals around two feet and blizzard conditions at times are expected.

- Cold temperatures Monday morning with wind chills of -20F, especially near and north of the Iron Range. - Warmer temperatures on Wednesday and through the end of the work week with off and on precipitation chances.

UPDATE

Issued at 956 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We are starting the process of trimming some headlines to our west where snow is greatly decreasing in intensity and observed amounts so far have not topped 3 inches around the Brainerd Lakes. We will hang on to advisories for now as we anticipate some blowing snow and lower visibilities as winds pick up a bit today.

On the broad scale, this storm has really taken a southward shift and has been of lesser intensity than it looked like it would be at this time yesterday. There have been some impressive snow amounts approaching 20 inches from roughly Wabasha, MN to Wausau, WI, where snow bands have been more intense. At this hour, we are at the peak of the storm in places like Price/Sawyer counties where we are still expecting to see the heaviest amounts, though totals in the realm of two feet are definitely not looking likely anymore. We are still seeing visibilities less than one mile with the moderate to heavy snow there, and we may retain or see some lower visibility into the early afternoon as winds pick up there as well. For the moment, we will hold on to the Blizzard Warnings through the morning, but if we do not see any significant and widespread reductions in visibility over the next couple hours, additional headline downgrades will be necessary.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The surface low is rotating slowly over Central Kansas this morning, with an expensive circulation extending as far north as Lake Superior. This low will start to move to the northeast over the next several hours, tracking through northern IL and across southern Lake Michigan. Locally, a heavy snowband extends west to east across southern MN and into central WI. Further north, light to moderate snow is falling from the Brainerd Lakes region eastward across northwest Wisconsin. Snow has been falling here at the forecast office since about 1245AM, having finally overcome low level drier air.

Through sunrise, expect northeast to east winds to strengthen response to a tightening pressure gradient and increasing low level jet. Coupled with better divergence aloft and Fgen banding over the area, expect moderate to heavy snowfall to continue from the I-35 corridor eastward across northwest Wisconsin. Further north to the US-2 corridor, light to moderate snowfall can be expected. Through Sunday morning, snowfall rates will increase as forcing and lift aloft strengthens as the upper level trough amplifies. The heavy snowband will pivot to the northeast stretching from the Twin Cities northeastward through interior Northwest Wisconsin. The heaviest snowfall period for those interior counties continues to be this morning through mid afternoon, where 20-24 inches of snow is possible.

Convergence of strong northeast winds off western Lake Superior will lead to snowbands or "streamers" off the lake this morning into the early afternoon, as which point winds turn to the north and those bands will shift over the South Shore. Under these bands, several inches of snow is possible in short time, in a very localized area. The most likely locations this morning is along the North Shore and at the head of the lake. It is hard to reflect such localized accumulations, where one neighborhood could see 4-5 inches more than the next neighborhood. Once these bands shift over the South Shore, accumulations of6-8 inches more than the surrounding areas are possible. We have tried to reflect this in the latest snow accumulations totals, but exact accumulations will depend on mesoscale effects of convergence off the lake.

As the system begins to pull off to the east, light snowfall will continue outside of any enhanced snow areas from the lake through tonight. Activity across Ashland and Iron counties will likely linger through Monday afternoon. The Northland will dip back down into the deep freeze as cold arctic air advects southward. Lows tonight will fall below zero along and north of the Iron Range, with single digits and low teens elsewhere. Strong northerly winds continue through Monday, and this will pull wind chills down to -15F to -20F across north central and northeast MN. The Northland remains below freezing through Wednesday morning.

A weak clipper drops southward into the region Tuesday into Tuesday night, with another chance for a couple inches of snow. There is some question on track of the clipper and whether drier air wins out, keeping most of the precipitation to our west and southwest. Behind the clipper, warm air returns, and expect a quick rebound starting Wednesday, with highs back in the 40s and pushing 50 degrees by Friday for the Brainerd Lakes region. Overnight lows will be below freezing, so look for the thaw/freeze cycle to occur. There will be a couple more opportunities for light precipitation through the next weekend, with light accumulations.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A strong low pressure system is moving south of the Northland this morning, and is bringing light to moderate snow from BRD to DLH and all of northwest Wisconsin. Light to moderate snow will continue through much of today, generally south of the Iron Range. With periods of heavy snowfall near DLH as lake effect enhanced bands impact the North Shore and areas around the Twin Ports. This heavier activity might be very localized. More widespread heavier snow is expected across northwest Wisconsin, as a band of heavier snow currently across central Wisconsin pivots to the northeast. Light snow will restrict vis to IFR/LIFR while cigs remain within the MVFR category.

As the surface low moves toward northern IL and strengthens, northeast winds will increase and back to the north this morning. Wind gusts of 30-35kts are possible through today. These strong winds will further reduce vis due to blowing snow.

Conditions begin to improve at BRD this afternoon as snow ends, but MVFR cigs and strong winds will persist through the end of the period. Moderate snowfall could persist at DLH into the early afternoon given northeast winds over lake providing some enhancement along the North Shore and head of the lake. Vis at HYR will remain at 1 mile or less through this evening as snowfall continues across Northwest Wisconsin Sunday evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A major winter storm is expected through Monday over western Lake Superior. Expect moderate to heavy snow, blowing snow, increased wave heights, and heavy freezing spray through Monday. Gales are expected to develop this morning with northeast winds and some storm force winds are expected around Grand Marais to Grand Portage. A Storm Warning has been issued for tonight through Monday. Winds shift to northerly going into Monday with gales starting to lessen through the day Monday. Winds are still expected to be gusty into Monday night, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

Winds become light for Tuesday. A brief period of increased winds is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday, as winds increase from the southwest.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MNZ025- 033>036. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for MNZ038. WI...Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-006-007. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ002-008-009. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>142-147-148-150. Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142. Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142-147-148-150. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142. Gale Warning until noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146.