textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday for north central and northeast Minnesota. Critical fire weather conditions possible for the Brainerd Lakes region.

- Showers are possible Friday night (30-50% chance) and rain and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday (30-50% chance).

- The cool and quiet weather pattern will continue through the weekend, then temperatures warm up next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The Northland remains under a persistent northwest flow pattern, keeping conditions unseasonably cool for early May. For the rest of today, a weak surface low pressure system will track from northwest Minnesota this morning into north-central Minnesota this afternoon. While this system brings some cloud cover, a very dry profile aloft will mix down to the surface by late morning. West winds will increase to 12 to 17 mph with gusts reaching 20 to 25 mph...strongest late afternoon to mid-evening on the backside of the surface low with a shift to northwesterly winds. Combined with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 15 to 25 percent range, near-critical fire weather conditions will develop across North-Central Minnesota, the Iron Range, and the I-35 corridor. Specifically for Southern Cass County and Crow Wing County, that late afternoon to early evening hours time period will have to be monitored for possible Critical Fire Weather Conditions with the maximized winds expected and a day of critically low relative humidity. High temperatures today will be warmer, reaching around 60 to the upper 60s.

A period of weak rain showers is forecast this afternoon and evening for the Arrowhead and South Shore with the passing weak low pressure warm air advection regime. Any rainfall would be sprinkles to a few hundredths of an inch.

Tonight, a weak band of precipitation is forecast to move through central Minnesota. This may scrape our southern tier, particularly the southern areas of the Brainerd Lakes and east- central Minnesota, early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts will be minimal, very likely less than a tenth of an inch, with a sharp cutoff expected near the regional border. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s except near that precip closer to 40 F. Saturday remains breezy with northwest winds gusting to 25 mph and highs staying in the 50s as a cold air advection regime sets in for this weekend behind a passing cold front.

Another round of widely scattered rain showers (currently a 10-15% chance) will have to be monitored for the Arrowhead region Saturday afternoon if the pool of low to mid-level instability can push a bit further southward from north of Superior in Ontario.

Cooler and quiet weather persists through the remainder of the weekend. High pressure nudges in for Sunday, but the dry airmass remains in place. Another round of near-critical fire weather conditions is possible Sunday afternoon as relative humidity bottoms out, though wind gusts look slightly weaker than today. Monday starts dry and sunny with highs rebounding into the 60s, though very low humidity remains a concern before moisture increases ahead of the next system.

A shift in the pattern arrives Monday night as a low pressure system in the Southern Manitoba Plains lifts a warm front into the region. This will trigger a period of much-needed rain showers and potentially some general thunderstorms through Tuesday. Confidence is increasing for a wetting rain, though severe weather is not currently anticipated. Drier conditions return for Wednesday with high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Looking toward the end of next week, that upper-level ridging will allow temperatures to climb well above normal. Many inland areas likely reaching the mid 70s by Thursday. A trend in the forecast over the last 24 hours has also been introducing a period of rainfall (30-40% chance) Thursday which could help moderate those temperatures a bit as a notable Northern US Plains low-level southerly jet sets up.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail this TAF period even as daytime rain showers are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Westerly winds 10-15 knots will gust 18-25 knots after 16Z Saturday and last into sunset. A wind shift to northwesterly is expected Friday after 21Z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Winds will remain southwest at 10 to 15 knots today before shifting northwest late Friday behind a cold front. Northwest winds Saturday afternoon may gust to 20 knots, creating conditions occasionally hazardous for small craft. Waves will generally remain 2 feet or less through the next few days. No headlines are currently in effect, but small craft should monitor Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for North-Central Minnesota to the I-35 corridor and the Iron Range. West winds of 12-17 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will overlap with minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. A few hours of Critical Fire Weather Conditions are possible late afternoon to early evening today in southern Cass and Crow Wing Counties. While northwest Wisconsin will also see critically low RHs today, the strongest winds are expected to not arrive until the evening after the nocturnal inversion begins to set up. A band of light rainfall is mostly expected to stay south of Northland districts, but less than a tenth of an inch cannot be ruled out for the southern Brainerd Lakes to east-central MN districts late tonight into Saturday morning. A wind shift to northwesterly will occur first late afternoon to day in far north-central Minnesota then through the evening and overnight hours southeastward. Gusty northwest winds 10 to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots occur Saturday. Another round of near- critical concerns is possible Sunday and Monday due to persistent low humidity.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.