textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warmup Saturday with highs 15-25 degrees above normal.

- Winds from the south on Saturday gusting to 45 mph along the South Shore of northwest Wisconsin.

- Rain chances return Sunday night and persist through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

This afternoon and into the evening, widely scattered rain showers are expected to move across far northern Minnesota. These will be high-based showers, likely only producing sprinkles or a few hundredths of an inch of new rainfall. In addition to the light precipitation, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will persist into this evening across the area. By late this evening, the winds will diminish as the showers fade.

Thursday will bring less wind, dry weather, and mild conditions to the Northland. High temperatures will still remain slightly above normal for this time of year. A warming trend will then begin on Friday, as dry conditions persist across the region and flow shifts southerly ahead of an approaching system.

For this time of year, an extremely warm period sets up for Saturday. High temperatures are forecast to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal, reaching into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the region. A few spots in northwest Wisconsin cannot be ruled out to hit the mid 80s. These forecast temperatures place a few climate data spots within a few degrees of reaching daily maximum high temperatures for October 10. Saturday southerly winds will gust 25 to 35 mph areawide. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the South Shore where gusts to 45 mph are possible (50-70 percent chance) due to the tightest pressure gradient in-place there and areas eastward. Winds will be lighter further west into north-central Minnesota.

A lingering very warm sector will remain over east-central Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and across the entirety of northwest Wisconsin on Sunday. Meanwhile, a cooler airmass will push into north-central Minnesota Sunday, setting up a tight temperature gradient and a decrease in high temperatures. Meaningful rain showers are forecast to begin later Sunday night, primarily for far northern Minnesota, ahead of a more significant rainfall chance Monday.

Rain showers will become much more widespread on Monday afternoon. A gusty and seasonably cool airmass will work into the area on northwest wrap-around flow as high pressure sets up over the southern Canadian prairies. By Tuesday, cold air advection rain showers remain possible during the daytime as the much cooler airmass lingers across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Gusty northwest winds decrease in speed this evening as a few rain showers may move through far northern Minnesota where KHIB and KINL TAFs now have a vicinity shower mention for a few hours. Very low confidence on direct impacts to those terminals though at this point. West winds around 10 knots Thursday daytime with increasing high VFR sky cover in the midday to afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 143 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Gusty west to northwest winds of 20 to 25 knots will persist over Western Lake Superior through this evening, resulting in waves building up to 3 feet, and up to 4 feet for the outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening. Winds and waves will subside by Thursday morning and remain light into Friday. Easterly winds on Friday approach 20 knots at the head of the lake. A significant increase in southerly winds is expected Saturday through Monday, bringing hazardous conditions for small craft and the potential for gale force gusts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Gusty northwest winds between 25 and 35 mph along with dropping relative humidity values into the 30 to 45 percent range will create elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Minimum relative humidity values will remain between 30 and 50 percent for Thursday and Friday with lighter winds. Hot, dry, and very windy conditions are expected on Saturday, which may lead to widespread near critical fire weather conditions before rain chances return late Sunday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ150.