textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms with a cold/occluded front today, with the best thunderstorm coverage along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor.

- There is a 5 to 15% chance of strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening, with the best potential along and south of a Walker, MN, to Hayward, WI, line. Main hazard would be hail up to 1 inch in diameter, with a secondary hazard of damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Additional widely scattered showers on Saturday, with the best coverage and potential for a few isolated, non-severe storms Saturday afternoon in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

- Temperatures generally slightly below normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and low temperatures in the 40s to around 50F most nights through the middle of next week. For comparison, normal highs are mid to upper 70s and normal lows are upper 40s to mid 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Rest of Today into Tonight:

Regional radar imagery and surface observations show scattered showers across much of north-central and NE MN early this afternoon that is slowly expanding east into the MN Arrowhead and NW WI. Some clearing developed across west-central MN behind this initial round of rain/cloud cover and along/ahead of the surface cold/occluded front near the eastern ND/western MN border. This has allowed an area of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop and initiate scattered storm development in western/west-central MN. Scattered showers and storms will move east into much of the Northland within the next 1-2 hours this afternoon and gradually move southeast through the evening. Best coverage of thunderstorms would be along and south of US Hwy 2. In conjunction with forcing for ascent associated with the mid/upper-level trough moving into the area, the aforementioned instability moving into the Brainerd Lakes east into inland NW WI, steepening low and mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear of 20 to locally 30 kt will favor the development of some isolated strong to severe storm potential mainly along and south of a Walker, MN, to Hayward, WI, line. The hazards with the strongest storms would be wind gusts up to 50 mph, hail up to 1" in size, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. Thunderstorm intensity wanes towards sunset, so the window of strong to severe storm potential is mainly in the 2 PM - 8 PM timeframe, with storms exiting NW WI late this evening. Precipitation then ends west to east in the evening to overnight hours tonight, with some potential for fog development tonight as and after the rainfall departs. Additional rainfall amounts between 0.2-0.5" are expected for most of the Northland, though slightly less in the Arrowhead. Any locations that see one or several storms move overhead could see localized rainfall amounts of 0.5-1".

High temperatures generally top out in the 60s to around 70F this afternoon due to the rain and cloud cover, and then fall into the 40s to around 50F tonight.

This Weekend:

The surface low pushes through northwestern Ontario on Saturday, but does bring a weak secondary cold front through the Northland on Saturday with it. This front, combined with steep low-level lapse rates and cold advection should lead to additional widely scattered diurnal shower development for much of Saturday into Saturday evening. Some small instability of 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE could also support a few isolated, non-severe storms Saturday afternoon into early evening mainly along and northeast of the Iron Range to Twin Ports and in NW WI. A drier air mass and surface high pressure move in for Sunday, keeping conditions rain-free.

Temperatures warm a few degrees for this weekend with highs into the mid 60s to mid 70s with a mix of clouds and sun on Saturday and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies on Sunday. Northeast winds on Sunday should produce slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior and the Twin Ports.

Early - Mid Next Week:

Ensemble and deterministic mid-range model guidance continues to have good agreement in the pattern aloft for early to mid next week as a mid/upper-level trough currently near the coast of British Columbia slides east/southeast through southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Upper Midwest through the first half of next week. An associated low pressure system also moves through during the same timeframe, with a cold front extending south through the High Plains on Monday, to western MN by Tuesday, and through our region along with the surface low pressure late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this system, northeast surface winds remain likely on Monday before becoming southerly on Tuesday. Temperatures remain pretty consistent in this timeframe in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Warm advection/isentropic ascent ahead of this front should bring in widespread showers and embedded storms from west to east on Tuesday, then along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Still early regarding assessment of strong or severe storm potential, including potential, hazards, and favored locations, but more general guidance during this timeframe does paint fairly weak 0-6 km bulk shear and marginal instability late Tuesday, so for now expect mainly weaker storms, but further assessment will be needed as we get closer to early next week. Cyclonic flow behind the departing low/front on Wednesday would also support lingering scattered shower and storm chances.

Late Next Week and Weekend:

Models have come into some loose agreement on a northwest flow pattern aloft for late next week, and then some variation of shortwave mid-level ridging over the Upper Midwest sometime next weekend. This would favor slightly low-end diurnal shower and storm chances for the second half of next week and a gradual warming trend back towards normal temperatures towards next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered showers are moving through the Northland as of early this afternoon, with mainly VFR conditions but occasional MVFR visibilities in the showers. There has been some partial clearing in cloud cover across western Minnesota where scattered storms are now developing. This additional area of scattered showers and storms will slide east into northeast Minnesota and expand in coverage this afternoon into early evening and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon through mid-evening. Some of these storms could become strong to severe, particularly at BRD east to HYR with hail up to the size of quarters (1 inch), erratic wind gusts up to 40-50 kt, locally heavy downpours, and frequent lightning as the hazards. Amendments will likely be needed to account for storm arrival and specific hazards as they approach the various terminals. Also expect MVFR to IFR conditions with any thunderstorms that move directly over a terminal. Wind gusts will be south to southwest ahead of the approaching cold front at around 10 kts, then veer westerly to northwesterly behind the front starting later this afternoon and continuing out of the northwest through Saturday.

Expect some fog and MVFR to IFR ceilings tonight at DLH, HIB, and HYR behind the exiting rain, though fog also can't be ruled out at BRD and INL either (20-30% chance). Otherwise, a return to VFR conditions are expected Saturday morning, with additional widely scattered diurnal showers for much of northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Southwesterly winds today at 5 to 15 kts, with some gusts of 15 to 20 kts from Grand Marais to Grand Portage this afternoon. Winds become westerly at 5 to 10 kts tonight. Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms will be possible again during the afternoon and evening hours in the western arm of Lake Superior and the South Shore, with the best chance for any thunderstorms near the Twin Ports where small hail and gusts to 30-40 kts would be possible in the strongest storms. Southwest winds develop again for Saturday at around 10 kts or less and then turn northeast on Sunday at around 10 kts or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Scattered to widespread showers and storms continue this afternoon and evening along and ahead of an approaching cold/occluded front. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.2-0.5" expected, though slightly less in the Arrowhead. Areas that see storms could see localized amounts between 0.5-1". Hail up to 1", wind gusts to 50-60 mph, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours are the hazards with the strongest storms, with best potential along and south of a Walker, MN, to Hayward, WI, line. Min RH is once again expected to be at or above 40% this afternoon, being lowest in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin before the rain moves in.

The trend for has been to likely seeing isolated to widely scattered daytime showers develop for the Iron Range to Twin Ports and areas north in northeast Minnesota, and also in northwest Wisconsin. Can't rule out a few stray, non-severe storms in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon to early evening, either. Saturday, with chances (20-40%) of a shower or storm limited to the tip of the Arrowhead. RH values are currently forecast to dip to 40-50% across the area on Saturday. Winds will also be lighter into the weekend at 5 to 15 mph out of the northwest on Saturday and north to northeast on Sunday, with daytime winds strongest in the afternoon both days. Temperatures will be in the 60s and lower 70s through Saturday then warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Sunday into next week for areas away from the immediate Lake Superior vicinity. Lower min RH of 30-40% is forecast for Sunday and Monday before increasing Tuesday into mid-week as another round of showers and storms moves into the Upper Midwest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.