textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased cloud cover to remain around a little longer today northeast of Brainerd as an upper level low pressure system spins over Ontario.

- Scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms are possible today, particularly across the Arrowhead.

- Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through the middle of next week with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

For the rest of today, expect cloud cover to linger, especially northeast of Brainerd, as an upper level low pressure system spins over neighboring Ontario. This system will also drive widely scattered showers across the Northland this afternoon, with the best chances for an isolated thunderstorm focused over the Minnesota Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin where instability is the greatest with just enough CAPE and high enough lapse rates to eek out some lightning. The low freezing levels help in lightning generation and also increase the chances for pea-sized hail. Any storms that do manage to develop will remain below severe limits.

As we move into Sunday, weak high pressure begins to build southward into the Great Lakes region with potential for a few embedded waves to skirt through. This will usher in a much drier and quieter day across the area with mostly sunny skies returning. Temperatures will remain a bit chilly for late June, generally topping out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. North to northeast winds around 5 to 10 mph will keep areas near Lake Superior even cooler. These quiet and dry conditions will persist right into Monday as the high pressure system remains in control of our weather pattern.

Our next notable change arrives Tuesday as a low pressure system approaches the region from the west. Showers will become likely from west to east during the day on Tuesday, and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible by the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not anticipated due to limited atmospheric instability. Lingering moisture and cyclonic flow behind the departing system will keep scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Wednesday.

Looking toward the latter half of the week, northwest flow begins to inch eastward Thursday and Friday. This setup will favor slight daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will gradually warm back closer to our seasonal normals as we approach next weekend, with daytime highs climbing well into the 70s and we begin to build instability back into the region for better chances for thunderstorms and possibly some stronger ones too by the end of the month.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will gradually scatter and lift, bringing widespread VFR conditions to all terminals by this afternoon. Northwest winds around 5 to 10 knots are expected this afternoon with occasional gusts to 15 knots possible. VFR conditions will prevail tonight through Sunday morning as winds become light and gradually shift to the northeast. A small chance for fog though likely not affecting our terminals, but did tempo in some MVFR at the most likely locations.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Southwest winds around 10 knots or less today will shift to the north and northeast for Sunday and Monday, remaining at 10 knots or less. Waves will be 1 foot or less across the nearshore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the North Shore, with widespread rain chances returning on Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few weak storms are expected this afternoon, mainly across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph will occur today with minimum relative humidity values dropping to 40 to 50 percent. For Sunday and Monday, winds shift to the north and northeast at lighter speeds, but minimum relative humidity values will fall further into the 30 to 40 percent range under mostly sunny skies. Moisture and rain chances increase again by Tuesday with a wetting rain possible.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.