textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northeasterly winds Monday bring a threat of rip currents to Twin Port beaches.

- Tropical moisture will lead to widespread rainfall across the Northland for Monday night into Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend cooler over the latter half of the week with frost potential returning heading into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Low pressure was located over Hudson Bay early this afternoon with a cold front extending southward into far western northwest Ontario, northern and western Minnesota and back into South Dakota. Little rainfall activity is seen ahead of this front, but there is a large area of low stratus ahead of the front with a sharp clearing line behind the front, although some high clouds are seen behind the front. Some drizzle or sprinkles cannot be ruled out under the low stratus, but overall dry conditions are expected as drier air works into the region. Highs this afternoon will be in the 60s with a few lower 70s, highest in areas that break out of the clouds.

Deep troughing will dig into the Intermountain West on Monday with a southwesterly to northeasterly jet ahead of it stretching from the southern Rockies into the northern Plains. This will advect tropical moisture northward from the systems off Baja California. High pressure over the Upper Midwest will keep dry conditions in place for Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s. As the deep trough over the Rockies approaches the Plains Monday night, a warm front will set up across the northern Plains into northern Minnesota. This will bring a first round of shower activity to the Northland with additional rounds of rainfall for Tuesday into Tuesday night. The highest rainfall amounts look to occur across Koochiching County into western Itasca and far northwestern St. Louis counties where a half inch to an inch plus will be possible. Another surge of moisture Tuesday will then shift the heavier rain threat into parts of northwest Wisconsin. Portions of Burnett, Washburn, and Sawyer counties may receive around a half an inch by the time rainfall ends Wednesday. There may be some rumbles of thunder at times during the rainfall, but storms are not expected to be overly numerous and will be embedded in the rainfall if they occur. Lesser rainfall amounts will be seen between the two areas of higher amounts. Temperatures will only reach the 60s on Tuesday with copious cloud cover and rainfall in place. Showers linger for Wednesday and slowly taper off through the day with highs reaching into the 60s and lower 70s.

A cold front will then move through the Upper Midwest for Wednesday night into Thursday. This looks to be a mainly dry frontal passage at this time with most of the rainfall associated with it occurring north of the International Border. A much cooler airmass will arrive behind this front with highs for Thursday into the weekend in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows in the 30s and 40s will bring renewed concerns for frost, but a widespread freeze is not currently expected. Minimal rainfall chances are seen for late next week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions have been restored to all terminals, but some fog is expected to develop tonight, especially in areas that had recent precipitation and clear skies overnight. Stratus is continuing to dissipate, so is not expected to be a big factor in inhibiting fog development. Confidence is highest at BRD, HIB, DLH, and HYR. IFR/LIFR visibilities and similar ceilings are expected towards the early morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Southwesterly winds this evening will become northeasterly overnight and increase on Monday to 5 to 15 knots. The strongest winds will be in the western arm of the lake during the afternoon and evening hours. Winds then turn southwesterly for Monday night into Tuesday at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 24 knots. The strongest gusts Tuesday are expected from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and along the South Shore east of Chequamegon Bay. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected into midweek with afternoon RH values remaining above 50 percent. Rainfall is expected for Monday night through Tuesday that will likely bring at least at tenth of an inch of precipitation to most areas. Higher amounts of 0.50-1" will be possible across portions of Koochiching, western Itasca, northwestern St. Louis, southern Burnett, southern Washburn, and southwestern Sawyer counties. Winds will remain under 15 mph this afternoon and tomorrow before increasing for Tuesday with gusts to around 20 to 25 mph from the south.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.