textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few light snow showers still linger across the region in the wake of the Clipper that came through yesterday evening. These snow showers will taper off in the afternoon with additional accumulations expected to be less than half an inch.

- Next chance for some light snow will be Friday as a cold front moves across the region. Minimal accumulations are expected with chances of 1" being around 10-20%.

- Arctic air engulfs the region for the weekend with highs on Saturday struggling to stay above zero. Wind chills overnight will likely lead to cold weather headlines. Temperatures warm back to seasonal average by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

Our quick moving Alberta Clipper is exiting to the southeast this morning with snowfall largely tapering off NW to SE. While the main low pressure system and the majority of the snow is done, the system still has some influence on the region and may produce some additional light snow showers. Radar hasn't shown any convergence bands over Lake Superior just yet but there is still a couple hour window where winds will remain favorable for a band to form. High res guidance has greatly backed off any initiation and winds will be less conducive after 5AM when they are completely northerly. However, some lake effect snow showers for the South Shore will remain possible through the morning. The other area of interest will be from Koochiching down through the Brainerd Lakes region. Convergent winds from the departing system have lead to a light QPF signal in model guidance. Not much forcing to work with as the shortwave aloft is largely NVA but might be able to squeeze out a half inch this morning. All this to say, your snow totals you wake up to this morning will largely remain unchanged aside from some light snow today giving additional accumulations of half an inch. Given the overall departure of the system and lack of additional snow expected we have canceled the remaining winter weather headlines.

Thursday/Friday:

Surface high pressure takes up residency over the region on Thursday helping to deflect another Clipper to our south. While the main low pressure system is projected to dive through NE we still may get a glancing shot (20-30% chance) of light snow through the Brainerd Lake region in the afternoon. The better chances for some widespread precipitation will be on Friday. A weak low pressure system will be passing through Ontario with a cold front draping through the Northland. Based on the 00Z suite of guidance this snow will enter Friday morning and exit to the east in the afternoon and evening. Lack of strong synoptic forcing and low PWATs will keep snowfall on the low side. That being said, the NBM is giving probabilities of greater than an inch of snow around 10-20%. The area with the best chances for some higher amounts would be the South Shore where both Lake effect snow showers and a gravity wave may impact the area.

Weekend/Next Week:

No noticeable signals for precipitation aside from some lingering lake effect snow showers for the South Shore as we stroll through the weekend and into next week. Arctic high pressure will dominate the region pouring cold air across the region for the weekend. Highs on Saturday may stay below zero across the region. Overnight lows will also be frigid between -15F and -20F. But when we factor in wind chill those temperatures are going to feel closer to -20F to -35F. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed. Fast forward to next week and we see a bit of a warm up with highs climbing back into the upper 20s for Tuesday. For context, highs this time of year are typically in the mid 20s, so not too far off from what we normally experience. But after being locked in the fridge for the weekend it will be a welcome relief from the bitter cold.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Snow has largely tapered off across the region with a few pockets of light flurries being observed this morning. Radar does show another sector of snow along the ND and MN border. High res guidance brings this towards BRD later this morning before dissipating. The rest of the region will have to contend with ceilings ranging from MVFR/IFR. Dry air will help to usher these clouds out later this evening when VFR conditions are expected to return.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Northerly winds today with gusts of 25kts expected. Stronger winds will be possible from Grand Marias to Grand Portage but are expected to remain below gale criteria. Winds will gradually taper off through the morning with Small Craft Advisories expiring through the day. An extension may be needed for the Outer Apostle Islands until the afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ121- 142>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-141.