textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and possibly a little freezing drizzle this afternoon and evening will lead to slick roads and reduced visibility for the evening commute and possibly lingering into the early Wednesday morning commute.

- Another clipper on Wednesday afternoon and evening brings rain or a rain-snow mix; some light freezing rain is possible at the tail end of the system Wednesday night.

- Warming conditions begin Wednesday with daytime highs rising above freezing into the 40s and 50s through the rest of the week, leading to steady melting of the existing snowpack.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Clouds are increasing in coverage this afternoon as a clipper approaches from the west. We do have some light snow already falling in northwest Minnesota, and that is heading our way. Snowfall will likely begin after a period of low-level saturation (air is currently pretty dry in the low levels). The most persistent snow will occur between late afternoon and midnight or 1 AM from west to east. Total accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected for most, though 3 inches may be possible along the higher terrain of the North Shore due to modest lake and terrain enhancement as well as around the Brainerd Lakes, where the main axis of synoptic precipitation should pass through. Snowfall rates will generally be light, but some briefly moderate rates approaching a quarter to half inch per hour will probably happen at times.

As the main snow band exits later tonight, a loss of ice crystals in the middle parts of the atmosphere may transition snow to a few hours of light freezing drizzle. While confidence in the coverage of this icing is not high, a light glaze of ice may fall on top of the snow. This situation may be a bit better than freezing drizzle on its own since the ice may not accumulate directly on most surfaces, but rather on top of fallen snow. But with that said, there could be some patchy slick spots lingering into early Wednesday morning.

With warm air advection and southwesterly flow on Wednesday following the precipitation, temperatures are expected to warm above freezing by around midday. We should see some melting of whatever light ice and snow falls tonight. Expect at least a little sunshine for some areas on Wednesday as well, though well have another quick-hitting clipper to follow late Wednesday afternoon into the evening.

The second clipper will bring primarily rain to the Northland, with some convective elements possible due to some weak instability and some slightly steep mid-level lapse rates. Rainfall amounts could reach a quarter of an inch or so for many areas, as several short-range CAMs suggest. A brief transition to snow or freezing rain is possible on the back side of this system Wednesday night before precipitation ends, mainly across the International Border. Any accumulations are expected to be minimal.

Looking ahead, the region will enter a prolonged warming trend through at least the early weekend, with daytime highs consistently above freezing and overnight lows dipping back into the 20s. This cycle will allow for refreezing of any standing water overnight and creating some slick surfaces. Weather-wise, we will be in a fairly continuous clipper pattern with occasional light rain/snow chances. The next opportunity may be Thursday night into Friday morning, then more chances Saturday into Sunday with potential for a stronger cold front that may bring our temperatures back towards normal for this time of year. Some light snow accumulations may be possible with that weekend clipper.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Light snow with a quick Clipper system is moving through the Northland this evening into early tonight, bringing IFR visibility and MVFR ceilings with the snow for a couple hours before visibility improves to MVFR. Any one location should see 4 to 6 hours of snow, then be followed by a several hour potential for light freezing drizzle with MVFR visibility tonight into early Wednesday morning. Expect MVFR to near IFR ceilings Wednesday morning, with MVFR ceilings holding on for most terminals through the remainder of the TAF period as a warm front moves through. Expect warmer air to move in for Wednesday, with another round of precipitation for the region starting towards the very end of the current 00Z TAF period or just after it Wednesday evening. With warmer air in place, most of this precipitation will be in the form of light rain, though some light snow or even brief light freezing rain could mix in for northern Minnesota Wednesday evening and night depending on how much near-ground temperatures cool.

Gusty southerly winds to 15-20 kt develop for this evening and tonight before weakening and veering westerly behind the Clipper Wednesday morning. Expect westerly to southwesterly winds Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 15 kt once again.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 202 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A clipper system is expected to move through tonight, and gusty south to southwest winds are expected. The North Shore from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage should see the brunt of the strong wind gusts to around 25 kt, with the highest winds at Grand Portage. Wave heights to around 5 ft are expected there as well. Gusty winds are expected to last longest, into the afternoon Wednesday, there. Towards Taconite Harbor, gusty winds are expected to wane by early morning. Some gusts to 25 kt are expected in the Outer Apostle Islands tonight as well. Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Expect light snow to accompany the clipper system tonight as well. Winds are expected to drop below 15 kt late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ141-150.