textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly hot and dry today through at least mid day Wednesday. Cooler near Lake Superior. Near critical fire weather in northern MN through this evening.

- More widespread near critical fire weather Wednesday possible for both far northern MN and northwest Wisconsin.

- Gusty northeast winds at the head of Lake Superior today lead to a high risk of rip currents for Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches.

- Rain and non-severe thunderstorm chances build late Wednesday and last into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Band of clouds remains anchored over northwest Minnesota to southeast Wisconsin, similar to the last few days. This is aiding in limiting relative humidity from bottoming out in the Brained Lakes to far western Wisconsin areas this afternoon. Further northward, RHs from 15 to 25% though are being observed in the Arrowhead and Borderlands. The Special Weather Statement for these near-critical fire weather conditions remains in effect for those areas through 8 PM this evening.

Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are creating conditions favorable for a high risk of rip currents at area beaches and hazardous boating conditions. The Beach Hazards Statement for these conditions remains in effect until 10 PM this evening for Lake Superior beaches in the Twin Ports.

Temperatures are forecast to warm 5 to 8 degrees Tuesday compared to today. This places almost all locations in the low-80s to upper-80s range of the maximum temperature Tuesday. Parts of Koochiching County could again scrape 90 F. The even warmer weather and persistently dry airmass creates continued very low relative humidity conditions that are even more widespread tomorrow as the band of clouds is not expected save for daytime cumulus. Another Special Weather Statement for near-critical fire weather conditions is likely to be needed in northern MN again Tuesday, but possibly even south of the Iron Range this time.

The surface high pressure center over the Great Lakes Tuesday shifts southeast into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday as a low pressure deepens and move eastward through the Canadian Prairies. This will draw in a more moist southwesterly flow through the Northland Wednesday afternoon through overnight. So the lowest dewpoints for north-central MN are likely to be in the morning then further increasing into the afternoon, but continued dry conditions for the Arrowhead and much of northwest Wisconsin. As the resulting pressure gradient tightens slightly, there will also now be higher wind speeds accompanying the southerly moisture tap. The combination of the lingering very dry airmass, days of warm temperatures and increased southerly winds on Wednesday lead to possible near-critical fire weather conditions spreading into northwest Wisconsin even Wednesday.

As the cold front moves into northwest Minnesota later Wednesday evening, chances (40-70%) of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms increase first for north-central Minnesota. These same chances push further eastward into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday night, but especially daylight hours Thursday early morning. For areas along and south of US Hwy 2 there is a 50-60% chance of localized 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rainfall from the stronger non-severe thunderstorms by Thursday mid-day.

This cold front stalls out over central Minnesota to the western U.P. late this week to keep continued scattered rain shower and non-severe thunderstorm mentions in the forecast for Thursday PM into Friday night. Severe weather is still not expected with these late work week chances of rainfall (20-40%).

Another high-amplitude ridge sets up Saturday night into Sunday and creates a mainly dry forecast north of US Hwy 2 once again; widely scattered rain and general thunderstorm mentions south of US Hwy 2 but this is low confidence at this time. This time period is much more likely to be notable for the return to the very warm to hot conditions in the upper-80s by early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Primarily VFR conditions prevail this TAF period outside of a few scattered MVFR rain showers in Brainerd Lakes to Leech Lake region early this afternoon. Expect light east to southeasterly winds around or under 10 knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 202 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots are moving down the southwest arm of western Lake Superior presently, with gusts of 15 to 25 knots recently beginning at Port Wing. These conditions are expected into the Twin Ports in the next couple of hours and aid in building wave heights to 2 to 4 feet; Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 PM this evening. There is also a jet of strong northeast winds offshore of the far North Shore where a Small Craft Advisory is also in effect. Winds and waves will relax overnight and remain at or less than 15 knots into mid- week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A band of clouds remains anchored over northwest Minnesota to southeast Wisconsin, similar to the last few days. This is aiding in limiting relative humidity from bottoming out in the Brained Lakes to far western Wisconsin areas this afternoon. Further northward, RHs from 15 to 25% though are being observed in the Arrowhead and Borderlands. The Special Weather Statement for these near-critical fire weather conditions remains in effect for those areas through 8 PM this evening.

Temperatures are forecast to warm 5 to 8 degrees Tuesday compared to today. The even warmer weather and persistently dry airmass creates continued very low relative humidity conditions that are even more widespread tomorrow as the band of clouds is not expected save for daytime cumulus. Another Special Weather Statement for near-critical fire weather conditions is likely to be needed in northern MN again Tuesday, but possibly even south of the Iron Range this time.

The surface high pressure center over the Great Lakes Tuesday shifts southeast into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday as a low pressure deepens and move eastward through the Canadian Prairies. This will draw in a more moist southwesterly flow through the Northland Wednesday afternoon through overnight. So the lowest dewpoints for north-central MN are likely to be in the morning then further increasing into the afternoon, but continued dry conditions for the Arrowhead and much of northwest Wisconsin. There will also be higher wind speeds accompanying the southerly moisture tap. The combination of the lingering very dry airmass, days of warm temperatures and increased southerly winds on Wednesday lead to possible near-critical fire weather conditions spreading into northwest Wisconsin Wednesday.

As the cold front moves into northwest Minnesota later Wednesday evening, chances (40-70%) of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms increase first for north-central Minnesota. These same chances push further eastward into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday night, but especially daylight hours Thursday early morning. For areas along and south of US Hwy 2 there is a 50-60% chance of localized 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rainfall from the stronger non-severe thunderstorms by Thursday mid-day. Scattered rain shower and non-severe thunderstorm chances last into Friday night...especially for districts south of US Hwy 2.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140- 141-144-145.