textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of smoky conditions continue though the weekend, along with near-critical fire weather due dry air and the threat for lightning. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for Monday with much stronger winds.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. An isolated storm may become severe with all hazards possible.

- Additional rain showers and thunderstorms are possible late Sunday into Monday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A warm front from a low weak low pressure center moving along the International Border has pushed over the area this morning, prompting shower and thunderstorm development over far north and northeast Minnesota. Temperatures and dewpoints in the warm sector are high and a Heat Advisory remains in effect. As the cold front from the aforementioned low pressure system pushes over the area, additional thunderstorm development is expected. With ample instability and shear, some isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening with all hazards possible. Southwesterly flow has started to improve air quality, pushing the smoke back north. It is expected that a wind switch back to the northwest behind the front could drag another round of smoke back into the area for Saturday, with the worst conditions expected in the MN Arrowhead where an Air Quality Alert remains in effect.

Saturday should be a fairly dry day with lower dewpoints and slightly lower temperatures as well. With those drier conditions however, near-critical fire weather concerns return. Dry afternoon and RH and breezy northwest winds could cause fires to spread quickly, especially if there were any new starts from today's lightning activity. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Saturday, and another may be needed for Sunday, due to the threat of both dry afternoon relative humidity, gusty southwest winds, and additional storms that could make for more cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty erratic winds.

Those storms Sunday are expected to arrive fairly late, overnight into Monday with shower and thunderstorm activity continuing Monday as a shortwave pushes east over our area. sufficient instability and shear could once again lead to some isolated to severe storms in this time period.

Along with and behind that disturbance Monday into Tuesday, very strong gusty wind from the west to northwest are expected Monday and Tuesday. This, combined with dropping dewpoints behind the system could lead to dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for critical fire weather concerns in this time period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the period as smoke briefly clears out. Storms moving across northwest Wisconsin will bring MVFR to IFR conditions at HYR over the next 1-2 hours along with gusty and erratic winds. Breezy northwest winds behind the cold front may weaken a bit overnight before picking back up again Saturday morning. Some smoke may filter back in across mainly INL and HYR Saturday, but confidence is low on how thick it will be and where it will be.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Stronger westerly winds push across the lake overnight into Saturday, becoming more northwest in the early morning hours. Through the day Saturday, expected winds to be fairly light and onshore. Smoke is expected to start to disperse over Lake Superior Saturday morning, and the Dense Smoke Advisory has been extended through 5am. Some strong southwest winds are possible Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Today, expected gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front, and then gusty northwest to north winds behind the front. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, and some isolated storms could become severe.

Saturday should be a fairly dry day with lower dewpoints and slightly lower temperatures as well. With those drier conditions however, near-critical fire weather concerns return. Dry afternoon and RH and breezy northwest winds could cause fires to spread quickly, especially if there were any new starts from today's lightning activity. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for Saturday, and another may be needed for Sunday, due to the threat of both dry afternoon relative humidity, gusty southwest winds, and additional storms that could make for more cloud-to-ground lightning and brief gusty erratic winds. Those storms Sunday are expected to arrive fairly late, overnight into Monday with shower and thunderstorm activity continuing Monday as a shortwave pushes east over our area. sufficient instability and shear could once again lead to some isolated to severe storms in this time period.

Along with and behind that disturbance Monday into Tuesday, very strong gusty wind from the west to northwest are expected Monday and Tuesday. This, combined with dropping dewpoints behind the system could lead to dry conditions. A Fire Weather Watch may be needed for critical fire weather concerns in this time period.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ018-025-026- 033>038. WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 5 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ121- 140>148-150.