textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake-effect snow lingers for the snow belt today, dissipating this evening. Some areas could see up to another 0.5 to 1" in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties.

- Dry, warming conditions are expected for the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the upper 30s to 40s over the weekend and mid 40s to 50s next week.

- A larger low pressure system will bring increasing precipitation chances late next week, with rain being the favored precipitation type given well-above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

TODAY:

As of 115 AM CST, lake-effect snow along the South Shore has briefly paused as thermal profiles show some near-surface drying, further evidenced by observed surface dewpoint depressions of 7-11F. This should be short-lived as increased low-level moisture returns this morning through early evening, bringing back light lake-effect snow to parts of the South Shore (i.e., portions of Bayfield County and Price County, and primarily in Ashland and Iron counties). Much of this low-level moisture remains outside of the dendritic growth zone, just touching it at the top of the layer with much drier air above it. Therefore, snow rates will continue to be light, particularly when combined with warm ground temperatures and above-freezing air temperatures mid- morning through the afternoon today. Expect additional accumulations to largely be less than 0.5", though 0.5" to around 1" are still possible in the higher terrain of the Gogebic Range in Ashland and Iron counties.

Outside of the South Shore lake-effect snow and associated cloud cover into northwest Wisconsin, most of the remainder of the Northland will be dry with a mix of clouds/clear skies early and becoming mostly sunny this afternoon. High temperatures today remain slightly below average, topping out in the mid to upper 30s alongside light north to northeast winds.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:

A several day period of dry weather sets up for this weekend into early next week as upper-level ridging moves over the central CONUS/Upper Midwest. High pressure settles into the region for this weekend, with light and variable winds Saturday and southerly winds on Sunday. Temperatures gradually warm starting this weekend, first with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday and low to mid 40s on Sunday. Overnight lows drop into the mid teens to 20s. Expect mostly sunny skies both days.

Monday and Tuesday will also be dry with even warmer temperatures as the surface high pressure slides east of the region and breezier southerly winds usher in high temperatures in the mid 40s to low/mid 50s.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:

No significant changes to the previous forecast as a larger low pressure system is on track to bring increasing precipitation chances Thursday/Friday of next week as it moves into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Well-above normal temperatures continue through the latter half of next work week with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and lows in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Given these warmer temperatures, the favored precipitation type is rain for the Northland.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

MVFR stratus is ongoing at INL and HIB this morning, with MVFR ceilings at HYR as well do to lake-effect clouds. Ceilings should scatter out to VFR at INL/HIB this afternoon, and improve to VFR around 3500 mid to late afternoon at HYR. VFR conditions then persist for the remainder of the TAF period. Light northerly winds today become light and variable to calm tonight and Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 555 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

UPDATE: The Small Craft Advisory for Grand Marais to Grand Portage expires at 6 AM CST as winds are diminishing and no longer expected to pose a hazard to smaller vessels.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots continue near Grand Portage through early this morning, while elevated waves of 3 to 5 ft continue across portions of the Apostle Islands east to Saxon Harbor. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the waters from Grand Portage to Grand Marais until early this morning and for the Outer Apostle Islands to Saxon Harbor through this morning. The gusty winds will gradually ease today as high pressure builds in, bringing benign and dry weather with light winds for Saturday and most of Sunday. Winds begin to pick up out of the southwest and become strong Sunday night through Tuesday as the high pressure departs, which could lead to hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. Dry weather also continues through early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Light north to northeast winds are in store for today, with light and variable to calm winds on Saturday. Winds turn southerly on Sunday with gusts to 10 to 18 mph Sunday afternoon, strongest in north central Minnesota. Breezier winds set up for next work week, generally gusting to 15 to 25 mph each day, being primarily out of the South for Monday through Wednesday. Minimum relative humidity values will generally range between 40 and 60 percent for today through early next week, then increase for the latter half of the week as low pressure moving into the region brings increasing rain chances.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ148-150.