textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and non-severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening. Expect widespread fog to develop overnight, especially near Lake Superior.

- A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms very late Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous severe storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widespread rainfall in excess of at least 0.5" is likely with localized heavy rain possible.

- Hot temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday when afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Heat Advisories may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great Lakes has brought areas of rain showers and thunderstorms which should gradually move out of the area through the afternoon and evening. No severe storms are expected with this disturbance, and the area should see anywhere from 0.1-0.8" of rain, highest amounts towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest in the MN Arrowhead. A few lucky folks might even get to measure over an inch on Tuesday morning. This evening, we might see a stronger thunderstorm or two redevelop in the Brainerd Lake and Iron Range area along a weak cold front pushing east. All precipitation activity should fizzle overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect widespread fog to develop from Lake Superior and push inland overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect beginning this evening around the lake, and may need to be expanded based on latest visibility trends. Fog should largely improve through Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north- central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and shear, and a strong mid level jet. These storms are expected to be discrete at first in the Dakotas, morphing into a linear structure and accelerating into the Northland sometime between 1-5am Wednesday morning. There is the potential that this line could still be severe as it gets into our area, but the threat is conditional, due to the timing of the front coming in overnight, which will make for a battle between that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition. Main threats would be large hail and damaging winds.

Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area, buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all hazards as storms unzip along the cold front midday to early afternoon and then push east. There is some uncertainty with this setup, as the front continues to trend faster and lingering precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could make things messy. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a widespread 0.5"+. There could be some locally higher amounts of 1-2"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat Advisories will likely Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler temperatures. We stay in a zonal flow pattern into the weekend, stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at time, but nothing significant is expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 657 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region early this evening with pockets of IFR to LIFR conditions near the head of Lake Superior and in parts of northwest Wisconsin where rain is ongoing. Fog and low stratus is expected to develop tonight with visibilities and ceilings falling to IFR to LIFR during the early morning hours. Improvement to MVFR or better will occur by mid-day Tuesday. Fog is most likely at DLH, HIB, and HYR where the lowest conditions are expected. Have kept BRD and INL at MVFR due to lower confidence. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop across/near the Brainerd Lakes region this evening, but confidence is low on coverage and location. Have removed mention from the TAF with this update, but will have to monitor. Winds will remain light at 10 knots or less through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Northeast winds continue over the next couple of days. Some afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots, but no additional small craft advisories are expected at this time in the nearterm. Patchy to widespread areas of dense fog are likely through the next day or two. A Marine Dense Fog has been issued for this afternoon and evening through midday Tuesday. There is a chance that some dense fog lingers all the way through Wednesday morning and the advisories would need to be extended. Expect showers and thunderstorms through this evening, but no severe weather is expected. Scattered severe storms are possible Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Areas of rain showers and thunderstorms shift east and out of the area through the evening. There could be a couple isolated thunderstorms in the Brainerd Lake and Iron Range this evening. By Tuesday morning, expected rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8", with some locally higher values up to 1" for those areas that see the most robust thunderstorms, most likely in the Brainerd Lakes area. More thunderstorms return late Tuesday evening into Wednesday along a cold front moving from west to east. Scattered to numerous severe storms may be possible with this, especially on Wednesday. This should be an even more robust rain producer however, with widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.5-0.75"+ likely. Scattered showers Thursday, and then slowly drying out into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for MNZ012-019>021- 037. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for WIZ001>003. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-146>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>145. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142.