textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and possibly a storm or two out there this afternoon.

- A round of thunderstorms will likely affect Pine towards Price Counties tonight. A few strong thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small hail.

- Expect cooler weather on Saturday and slightly warmer (but still a bit below average) weather Sunday into next week.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday due to low relative humidity and gusty winds.

- Occasional rain and thunderstorms are possible next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight: We are now pretty firmly entrenched in cyclonic flow aloft today, and that will continue to be the case through the weekend. There is a healthy cumulus field out there across the region with some embedded showers mainly in northeast Minnesota and over Lake Superior. We're not seeing any lightning strikes at the moment, but with a little added instability this afternoon, there could be some thunder/lightning embedded in these scattered showers. All-in-all, these should be nuisance showers/storms with minimal impacts other than brief heavy rain and thunder/lightning.

As we go into tonight, we're continuing to watch for the potential for a low-level jet to develop in-tandem with some passing short waves aloft. An area of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop for our southern tier counties and southward, mainly Pine to Price counties. Given that this will be happening overnight and the synoptic environment in general will feature marginally favorable mid-level lapse rates (~6.5-7 C/km), we're not expecting many intense thunderstorms. Overall MUCAPE should be less than 1000 J/kg, and storms likely will not be surface-based with an inversion setting up. With that said, low-level shear will be supportive for some maintenance and strengthening of any thunderstorms despite aformenentioned negating factors. A few strong thunderstorms capable of producing some sub-severe gusty winds and hail will be possible and a stray low-end severe thunderstorm can't be totally ruled out, though chances for that are less than 5%. Expect these storms to pass through later this evening and through tonight.

Saturday and Sunday: A cold front will pass through Saturday morning, and with that, we will be left with some unseasonably cooler air, especially in northern Minnesota with highs only expected to rise into the 50s. We'll have blustery northwest winds as well, making it feel like a late spring or early fall day. Wraparound showers and clouds will round out that vibe for the day. Northwest Wisconsin will likely see some highs in the low 70s and more sunshine, so more of a cool summer feel to the day there.

Going into Sunday, cyclonic northwest flow continues, but any lingering moisture will be limited to Ontario and possibly into the tip of the Arrowhead. Elsewhere, expect a dry air mass to pass through coming from Manitoba and the Dakotas. We will see plenty of sunshine and some relatively warmer temperatures, but also blustery winds. RH may fall into the 25-30% range with winds gusting to around 20-25 mph. Near-critical fire weather may be possible for several areas in these conditions.

Next Week: Expect a somewhat similar day to Sunday on Monday, except that there may be slightly more moisture in the air. A quick-moving upper-level trough could introduce a ~30% chance for a few showers for some places. Places that don't see much rain could see RH falling into the ~30% range.

The overall pattern through Thursday and maybe Friday looks to be one of continuous west/northwest flow aloft with several troughs passing through. We should have pretty steady off-and-on chances for rain and thunderstorms along with sunshine. It is looking like favorable environments for any strong/severe storms should remain south of us at this time.

Come Friday, broad ridging to the west that will be responsible for our northwest flow may start to drift east. We may return to more of a southerly flow and warm air advection pattern, potentially bringing us back into warmer temperatures and more typical summertime weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the afternoon. There is a slight chance of showers at several terminals, so a brief shower could bring very temporary MVFR conditions to HYR/DLH/HIB, but chances are about 10%. Gusty west winds are expected today (gusts in the 20-30 kt range), lessening a bit after sunset but still remaining breezy. Another cluster of showers and storms is expected to pass through northwest Wisconsin overnight, and these may just barely clip HYR tonight, but confidence is low that there will be much for impacts there. At INL, low clouds are expected to move in later tonight through Saturday morning behind a cold front, and MVFR ceilings are likely there along the the possibility for some light showers or fog. These low clouds and showers may affect HIB as well.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Expect gusty winds to persist through the early evening, and Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all zones through 03z this evening. Winds will remain southwesterly into Saturday. After decreasing in speed overnight, expect increasing winds once again with fairly widespread gusts in the 20-25 kt range. More Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed through the day. After another dip in wind speeds Saturday night, expect winds to become northwesterly Sunday behind a passing cold front. Some breezy conditions are possible mainly along the North Shore, and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Scattered showers mainly in the Arrowhead today may result in a few hundredths of an inch of rain. A bit of thunder is possible this afternoon. An area of showers and storms from Pine County to Price County tonight may bring a few tenths of an inch of rain to those areas. Some gusty winds and small hail may accompany some of the storms.

A cold front Saturday morning will bring northwest winds through Saturday and Sunday with gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range. Some lingering showers on Saturday should keep fire weather conditions minimized, but drier weather on Sunday may result in RH falling into the 25-30 percent range. Some near-critical weather conditions are possible. A little more moisture Monday may boost RH slightly, and winds will be a little less compared to Sunday, but Monday's weather is otherwise looking rather similar to Sunday.

Next week, expect sporadic chances for rain. Fire weather conditions are expected to be largely minimal.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148-150.