textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Relative humidity will drop to 15 to 20 percent near the Brainerd Lakes this afternoon, but light winds will limit fire weather threat.

- Freezing rain is expected Tuesday morning with up to 0.10 inches of ice across northern Minnesota and 2 inches of snow at the border.

- Thunderstorms are possible in northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon ahead of a messy wintry mix of precipitation that will impact the region.

- One large storm should miss us to the southeast on Thursday though a second large storm with a Gulf and Pacific moisture tap will target the region by Friday/Saturday, bringing the potential for significant snowfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

For the rest of the day, expect mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures to persist across the Northland away from the influence of Lake Superior. Highs will easily climb into the 50s and 60s for most inland locations. The latest high resolution guidance from the HRRR shows very dry relative humidity values dropping to 15 to 20 percent near the Brainerd Lakes this afternoon. Thankfully, wind speeds will remain fairly light across this area, which will help mitigate any widespread critical fire weather conditions. Tonight will see increasing cloud cover as our next weather maker approaches from the Plains, keeping overnight lows mild in the 20s and lower 30s.

As we move into Monday, a low pressure system will track into the region and bring an increase in atmospheric moisture. Snow showers will gradually spread into the area from the south and west during the day. In the warm sector of this system, there is a chance for thunderstorms across northwest Wisconsin on Monday afternoon as elevated instability interacts with a strengthening low level jet. High temperatures will remain quite mild south of the developing frontal boundary, reaching the 50s and 60s, while northern areas stay stuck in the 30s and 40s.

The forecast becomes much more complex Monday night into Tuesday as colder air in place undercuts the advancing moisture from the northwest. This setup will be good for freezing rain on Tuesday morning as suggested by the thermal profile. We are forecasting up to 0.10 inches of ice accumulation across northern Minnesota. Further north, colder thermal profiles will better support accumulating snow, with near 2 inches of snow forecast for the International Border. Precipitation will taper off by Tuesday afternoon as the system pulls away, leaving brisk northwest winds in its wake.

High pressure will briefly build into the Upper Midwest for the middle of the week. This will provide a dry Wednesday afternoon that will also be a bit breezy as northwest flow persists aloft. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal averages, with afternoon highs topping out in the upper 30s and 40s across our region. This quiet window will be short-lived as our attention turns to an active pattern developing across the continental United States for the late week period.

We are tracking back to back large storms that will roll through the Great Lakes region to close out the week. The Thursday storm should mostly miss us to the southeast, keeping the bulk of the heavy precipitation away from the Northland while we remain under partly cloudy and chilly skies. However, the Friday/Saturday storm should track further north with a deep Gulf and Pacific moisture tap. This weekend system could be very interesting and possibly snowy for us depending on the exact track and thermal profiles, so we will be monitoring this closely over the coming days. One thing to note for sure is that ensemble guidance has been trending upward with snow amounts for this storm

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of the period. MVFR conditions are possible for DLH early Monday morning from stratus off Lake Superior, but the majority should remain to the east and confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. Light snow showers are also possible at INL throughout tomorrow morning through early afternoon, and may bring MVFR conditions with the heaviest showers.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Northeast winds around 10 to 15 with gusts to 20 knots will continue across western Lake Superior for the rest of the day. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching low pressure system will cause northeast winds to increase significantly Monday into Tuesday. Expect wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots and wave heights building to 4 to 8 feet, necessitating a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will shift to the northwest by late Tuesday as the system departs.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 11 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>148-150.