textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures today and Tuesday.

- A clipper system will bring light mixed precipitation and snow tonight through Tuesday and South Shore lake-effect snow through Wednesday.

- Another potent clipper may bring a few inches of snow Thursday into Friday.

- Colder weather with more snow chances possible this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Pretty quiet weather out there as we sit between clipper systems. Expect some warm weather and sunshine today due to broad ridging to our west and westerly flow bringing in a stream of mild temperatures. Forecast highs are in the mid 30s generally. It wouldn't be entirely surprising to see some upper 30s or possibly even a few places reaching 40 with sunshine likely remaining prevalent through the day.

Tonight, in comes another clipper. With the mild air mass in place, expect some ptype issues. A warm nose aloft may bring a bit of freezing rain later tonight into early Tuesday morning. There's some uncertainty on amounts for a few reasons. One is the potential for some periods of dry air entrainment aloft, which could limit precip rates for some places (though we might see light freezing drizzle at the surface) early Tuesday morning. The other factor is surface temperatures themselves, and we can expect warm air advection before sunrise Tuesday morning and many places may rise above freezing before the morning commute, limiting impacts from any minor ice accumulations that may happen overnight. So with that said, there isn't high enough confidence to issue any Winter Weather Advisories at this time, but some places could have a bit of a slippery Tuesday morning commute (most likely in the Arrowhead where temperatures may be slowest to warm up).

As we go into Tuesday afternoon, we may see a bit of a dry slot in precipitation before some wraparound snow showers work their way in from the northwest as a cold front passes through following the clipper's departure. Temperatures should start to cool off pretty quickly during the afternoon and evening. There's a small chance (~10%) that there could be some snow squalls to deal with as the front passes through, but for the most part, snowfall rates may not be intense enough to reach that criteria. For most places, there shouldn't be too much for snow accumulation as lingering moisture Tuesday afternoon and evening moves out of here pretty quickly. Blustery winds gusting up to 30 mph could cause a bit of blowing snow and reduced visibility though.

The lake-effect machine is expected to turn on Tuesday night along the South Shore. Several inches of accumulating snow may pile up mainly in northern Iron County through Wednesday morning before dry air generally ends snow there as well Wednesday afternoon.

There will be a pretty noticeable temperature change from highs in the 30s Tuesday to highs in the teens Wednesday. Blustery winds will be decreasing, but still gusting to 20 mph to keep wind chills in the single digits through the afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather as high pressure moves through Wednesday night.

Thursday should bring us a potent low pressure system with a strong cold front passing through around Friday. Accumulating snow, potentially advisory-level for several places, is looking likely. Expect some blustery winds at times too, especially on Friday, which should help blow the snow around a bit.

Much colder air moves in for the weekend, bringing us weather that will certainly make it feel like January with highs in the single digits above zero and lows below zero. This won't be a typical cold snap though, as it's looking like we will retain our active clipper pattern. We may see more snow chances at times through the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A little bit of LLWS at HYR for the next hour or two, then expect VFR conditions through today and into this evening. Breezy conditions today at DLH with downsloping northwest flow, but generally light winds elsewhere. A clipper system will arrive tonight, bringing mixed precipitation and some LLWS to all terminals around or just after midnight. Precipitation may start as some light snow mixed with freezing rain, then gradually trending towards rain by sunrise as temperatures warm up. Expect ceilings to trend towards MVFR/IFR as this clipper moves in as well.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 252 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Wind speeds are expected to decrease slightly through today with gusts eventually falling below 20 kt. As a clipper system approaches going into Tuesday, wind speeds are expected to increase again from the southwest. Wind gusts will start to approach 25 kt on Tuesday, and there's a 30-60% chance for gales Tuesday night through Wednesday morning as well. A Gale Watch has been issued for that period. As winds switch to northerly Tuesday night into Wednesday, heavy freezing spray will be possible particularly along the South Shore as well. Wave heights to around 4 to 8 ft, locally up to 12 ft, are possible along the South Shore through Wednesday morning. Expect gradual improvement of winds and waves Wednesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for LSZ121-140>148-150.