textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm will bring a mix of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow to the Northland tonight and Saturday.

- An area of heavy snow will be located across north-central Minnesota tonight through noon Saturday.

- A quarter to a half inch of ice accumulation is expected across northwest Wisconsin tonight into Saturday morning.

- Snow squalls are possible with the next clipper Sunday into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Initial band of precipitation was located from near Remer in northeast Cass County to Duluth to Mercer. KDLH WSR-88D dual-pol products and surface observations reveal sleet to be the primary precip type with this initial wave. The band was moving east- northeast at about 35 mph and precipitation should not last more than an hour as the band passes.

Still expect precipitation to become more widespread later tonight. Surface low was centered south of Des Moines along the Missouri border as of 6 PM. Regional radar mosaic and GOES-East imagery reveal a broad area of convection over southern Minnesota, southern and central Wisconsin, into portions of Iowa and Illinois while an area of snow was noted over the eastern Dakotas. The 03.12Z and 03.18Z models seem to be handling the relative lack of moisture between the precipitation areas relatively well. Water vapor imagery reveals rapid northward mass transport over eastern South Dakota. It appears isentropic ascent and large scale omega will lead to additional cloud and precipitation development over western and central Minnesota before 04.03Z. Forecast remains largely on track though we will be keeping an eye on trends in case the thunderstorms over the Mississippi River Valley displace the poleward moisture stream and latent heat release shunts the low pressure system farther east instead of north.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

For the rest of the day, the first wave of precipitation along a warm front is moving northeast across Minnesota. However, radar trends and surface observations show that not much is hitting the ground, with only a few stations reporting drizzle. Little precipitation is expected to reach the ground from this initial wave this afternoon. The onset of precipitation has slowed slightly for northeast Minnesota, so all winter weather headlines have been delayed to 7 PM this evening. Soundings from the high resolution models show that a warm nose from southerly flow aloft will lead to mixed precipitation later this evening, especially to our southeast. The Twin Ports will primarily see ice pellets mixed with snow as the warm nose is not quite as prominent there, leaving plenty of subfreezing air below it to refreeze any melted precipitation. The warm nose will be much stronger over northwest Wisconsin with less subfreezing air below it, which will lead to more freezing rain and significant ice accumulation. A quarter to a half inch of ice is expected to fall across northwest Wisconsin tonight into Saturday.

A short time after the wintry mix starts this evening, we are expecting snow across northeast Minnesota. A TROWAL in north central Minnesota will have strong upper level forcing, strong lift through the dendritic growth zone, and plenty of moisture to support heavy snow. This will be particularly intense overnight tonight through noon Saturday. The TROWAL will begin to move off to the northeast into Canada by Saturday afternoon, but light snow will linger across the region through the rest of the day and into the evening hours.

As the low pressure system exits the region Saturday night, cold air wrapping in from the northwest and moving over Lake Superior will lead to lake enhanced snow showers across northern Iron and Ashland counties. For the rest of the Northland, snow will come to an end from west to east Saturday night, leaving a brief window of dry and quiet weather for the first half of Sunday. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s to middle 40s.

This break will be short lived as a clipper system dives southeast across the area from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. This will bring additional light snow to the region, generally totaling around two inches or less. Breezy northwest winds and steep low level lapse rates could support isolated snow squalls Sunday afternoon and again Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler in the wake of the clipper, with highs struggling to reach the middle 30s and overnight lows flirting with zero Monday night.

High pressure builds into the area for Tuesday, offering mostly sunny skies and a dry day. After the chilly morning, temperatures will quickly warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s. The active pattern resumes Tuesday night into Wednesday as another system approaches from the north. This will bring chances for rain and snow showers through Thursday. Highs will warm into the 40s and 50s by Wednesday as winds shift to the south and east, before cooling slightly on Thursday as precipitation chances continue.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 711 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Initial band of sleet will move northward and affect KDLH and HIB before 04.02Z. Precip should last about an hour at each site. Still expect to see widespread snow develop over the Minnesota terminals later this evening and a freezing rain/sleet (PL) mix over northwest Wisconsin. Ice accumulation near HYR overnight of a quarter to four tenths of an inch are expected with higher icing amounts at PBH. Additional light ice accumulation is forecast after 12Z in those areas. Heavy snow is forecast over much of northeast MN overnight through Saturday morning. The latest high-resolution forecast models appear to bring a dry slot into the DLH area late Saturday morning or early Saturday afternoon while precipitation lingers at BRD, HIB, and INL into the evening. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected as precipitation intensity and stronger lift lowers CIGS and VSBY. Conditions gradually improve through Saturday afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 107 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Northeast winds will rapidly increase this evening as a strong low pressure system approaches the region. A Gale Warning goes into effect late this evening for western Lake Superior and continues through Saturday afternoon, with wind gusts up to 40 knots and waves building to 7 to 12 feet. Winds will weaken and shift to the west on Sunday before increasing out of the northwest on Monday as a clipper system passes through the region, leading to conditions likely hazardous for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Ice Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>144. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>144. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ145>147- 150. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ145>147- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ148.