textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Gales at the head of the Lake today with high risk of rip currents in the Twin Ports

- Above normal temperatures for the next several days with near- critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon due to low RHs

- Better rain chances don't return until Wednesday when we swing back to a more active weather pattern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Backdoor cold front has stalled out over western MN this afternoon with some breezy northeast winds streaming across Lake Superior. Still looking at a warm and dry day across the region, especially away from Lake. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s before a Lake breeze sweeps in later this afternoon. This breeze will quickly reduce those temperatures into the 50s and 60s through the evening hours.

Sunday-Tuesday:

Not a lot of changes on the horizon through the early portions of next week. An omega block contorts itself a bit over the time period with the Northland remaining on the outskirts of activity with upper level ridging lingering over the region. A fairly classic set up for the Northland albeit slightly warmer than normal with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s before a Lake Breeze comes plowing through in the afternoon and evening hours. There will be continued concern for some near critical fire weather conditions as we dry out in the afternoon hours, but wind speeds are not expected to be high enough to warrant any Red Flag Warnings. Sunday evening into Monday there is some low chance (15-30%) PoPs across the Brainerd Lakes as a shortwave pivots in from the southwest. Not a consistent signal at this time but some of the CAMs want to form a line of showers.

Midweek:

Cluster analysis has the omega blocking pattern breaking on Wednesday with upper level ridging shifting to the east. This will allow for southwest flow aloft and a return to a more active weather pattern. PWATs will increase to over 1" with southerly surface winds boosting dewpoints to above 60F. Instability will build back with this influx of moisture increasing the chances (40-60%) for showers and storms to develop. Upper level flow becomes more zonal with several impulses moving across the region allowing for continued precipitation chances through the end of the work week. A bit too soon to really narrow down the potential for severe weather. At this time there is some agreement amongst the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance of bringing an upper level jet into northern MN on Wednesday. Paired with the instability could bring about some stronger storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Expect breezy southeasterly winds through the afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 20 kt, especially at DLH with onshore flow. Winds are expected to become more due easterly at DLH through the afternoon and evening before becoming southeasterly again later tonight. High clouds will be prevalent through the period, but VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

In the wake of a backdoor cold front Lake Superior is seeing some very gusty northeast winds. Gale warning for the Twin Ports will continue until this evening with Small Craft Advisories across the rest of the near shore waters. Winds will start to weaken tonight with waves following suit. Variable winds between 5-10 knots will linger across the Lake until Monday afternoon when northeasterly winds increase once again. Small Craft Advisories may be needed once again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Blocking pattern over the region will keep the same weather pattern going through the weekend and early next week. Near-Critical fire weather conditions will be on tap each afternoon along with above normal temperatures in play across the region. Min RHs will drop to below 25% across portions of the Northland but wind speeds are not expected to be high enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning. Precipitation chances return Wednesday with an active pattern persisting through the end of the work week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142-146>148-150. Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>145.