textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northeast gale-force wind gusts to 40 mph for western Lake Superior and the adjacent coasts from Two Harbors to Duluth and Superior to Port Wing today.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are forecast today for the beaches of Duluth and Superior due to building waves and a high risk of rip currents.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur nearly every day from today into next week across portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as dry weather continues.

UPDATE

Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Strong northeasterly winds across western Lake Superior are forecast today in a favorable setup with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes with developing low pressure across the Central and Northern Plains. Gales are likely from Two Harbors through Duluth and Superior to Port Wing, with conditions hazardous to small craft elsewhere. With strong northeast winds and building waves, a High Swim Risk is expected today for Wisconsin and Minnesota Point beaches and a Beach Hazard Statement is in effect. With strong northeast winds, temperatures today will be much cooler near Lake Superior with highs only in the upper 50s to the lower 60s immediately along the lake, and upper 60s to the lower 70s a bit further inland by a few miles. The one exception will be a stronger inland push from Lake Superior that may reach into northern portions of Pine county given the strong northeast winds at the head of the lake.

Elsewhere today across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, a warm day is expected with widespread high temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. The warmest locations will be across Koochiching county where deeper mixing will support high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. Near critical fire weather conditions are expected away from Lake Superior, especially across northeast Minnesota, with the warm temperatures, dry fuels, low relative humidity, and southeast winds sustained around 10-12 mph with gusts to 20 mph.

The remainder of the forecast through next week remains on track favoring above normal temperatures and generally dry conditions as the omega blocking pattern breaks downs to quasi-zonal flow aloft, with a re-amplification of the upper level ridge favored by the global ensembles late next week. Widespread high temperatures in the 70s and 80s are forecast away from Lake Superior with a daily likelihood of near critical fire weather conditions across portions of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with a lack of rain and dry fuels. The next best chance for rain showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday into Thursday with the break down of the omega blocking ridge. However, confidence is only modest in the evolution of the Upper Midwest precipitation patterns associated with this weakening of the ridge.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

For the rest of the day, record to near-record high temperatures are expected across the Northland. We are barely nicking Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon, but we held off on an advisory because of the high clouds streaming overhead working against the heating. Despite the clouds, it will feel very hot. Hi-rez models are popping off isolated storms this afternoon as diurnal heating maximizes which may also eat into the heating. Tonight, a backdoor cold front will sweep into the region, which will increase winds significantly, especially over Lake Superior.

Heading into Saturday, that backdoor cold front will continue to push through the area. Hi-rez models are popping off isolated storms again tomorrow along this boundary. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler near Lake Superior, staying in the 60s, while inland areas still reach the 80s. The big story tomorrow will be the winds on the lake. We have upgraded to a Gale Warning for the Twin Ports largely based on the HRRR and HREF and gut models with our general bias to go too low over the waters.

For Sunday and Monday, dry conditions continue with near-critical fire weather expected nearly every day as relative humidity falls below 25 percent. High pressure settles back over the Great Lakes, keeping Sunday dry with highs in the 70s near the lake and 80s further inland. No widespread soaking rainfall is expected. Breezy southeast winds will persist.

The long term forecast for Tuesday through Thursday keeps our temperatures well above normal across the region. The upper level pattern maintains a stubborn ridge, though a few weak ripples could spark scattered showers and storms each afternoon. We are closely monitoring the extended period, as the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted a moderate risk for excessive heat from June 6th through the 8th. The stagnant heat will be the primary story through late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Saturday night. Strong northeast to easterly winds are forecast near Lake Superior on Saturday with gusts of 25-35kts. Away from Lake Superior southeast winds with gusts to 20 kts will develop with daytime heating across northeast Minnesota, with slightly weaker winds with gusts to 15 kts across northwest Wisconsin.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 149 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Strong northeasterly winds across western Lake Superior are forecast today with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes with developing low pressure across the Central and Northern Plains. Gales are likely from Two Harbors through Duluth and Superior to Port Wing and Gale Warnings are in effect until 700 pm this evening. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed thereafter. Wind gusts to 35 kts and waves building 5-7 feet are forecast.

Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the North Shore and much of the South Shore with building waves and strong northeast winds today.

Winds are forecast to decrease on Sunday to around 5 kts, locally higher to near 10 kts around the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions today across portions of northeast Minnesota including the Arrowhead, locations near the International Border, and the Hinckley and Pine City areas west through Lake Mille Lacs and the Brainerd Lakes. For these areas, relative humidity will fall to near 25 percent this afternoon with southeast winds sustained around 10-12 mph and temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elsewhere across northeast Minnesota and also across the South Shore of Wisconsin, a lake breeze from Lake Superior will push inland to prevent relative humidity from falling as far.

For the Siren through Hayward and Phillips areas in northwest Wisconsin today, relative humidity will fall to around 28-31 percent with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s and southeast winds sustained around 7-10 mph, locally higher to around 12 mph for the St. Croix Valley. Warm and dry conditions are favored across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin into next week. The next best chance of rain showers and thunderstorms is Wednesday into Thursday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM CDT this morning through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM CDT this morning through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142-146. Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-150.