textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous swimming conditions from high waves and rip currents along the Lake Superior beaches of the Twin Ports through this evening.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for the Borderlands and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon due to dry air and gusty southeast winds.

- Widespread soaking rain will spread across the Northland from southwest to northeast this afternoon and tonight.

- Summer-like heat arrives for Memorial Day and continues through much of next week, with high temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s inland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

For the rest of the day, expect increasing cloud cover as a low pressure system moves across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota. A tight pressure gradient will keep southeast to east winds breezy, with gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph. These gusty winds combined with very dry air dropping relative humidity values into the 20s near the International Border will create near-critical fire weather conditions across far northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Additionally, onshore winds are producing dangerous swimming conditions and high rip current risks for the Lake Superior beaches of the Twin Ports. Rain showers will move into the region this afternoon, gradually spreading north and east into the evening.

During the overnight hours, widespread soaking rain will overtake the rest of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be completely ruled out, but no severe weather is expected. Rain showers will gradually taper off and become much more isolated or scattered in nature by Saturday morning as the main forcing lifts north into Canada. Breezy winds will shift to the south and southwest by Saturday afternoon. High temperatures on Saturday will remain somewhat cool under mostly cloudy skies, topping out in the 50s near Lake Superior and the low 70s inland.

A major pattern shift arrives for the extended forecast, bringing the first true taste of summer-like heat to the Northland. As an upper-level ridge builds over the central United States, Sunday will kick off the warming trend with plenty of sunshine and highs climbing into the 70s to near 80 degrees away from the lake. For Memorial Day on Monday, temperatures will soar even higher, reaching the mid to upper 80s for most inland locations. Winds will generally remain light out of the south to southwest, though a weak lake breeze may keep North Shore shoreline communities a bit cooler.

The unseasonable warmth persists from Tuesday through Thursday of next week, with widespread highs in the 80s and even a few 90 degree readings possible inland. While the vast majority of the time will feature dry and sunny conditions, the combination of heat and daytime instability could spark a few isolated popup showers or non-severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours each day. Winds will shift to the southeast and east by the middle of the week, helping to moderate temperatures slightly along the North Shore and Twin Ports, but inland areas will remain hot. We will monitor for any returning fire weather concerns due to the heat, but thankfully daily wind gusts should stay relatively light.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions will persist for the early afternoon before a frontal system brings widespread rain showers and degrading flight categories. Showers will start at KBRD early this afternoon, spreading to KDLH, KHIB, and KINL by mid afternoon. Expect MVFR to IFR conditions as the heavier rain moves in tonight. Southeast winds will remain gusty at 20 to 25 knots. Low-level wind shear may also be a concern for KBRD, KHYR, and KHIB tonight into early Saturday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Hazardous conditions will continue across western Lake Superior for the rest of the day and into tonight. Gusty east to northeast winds will reach 15 to 25 knots, with localized Gale- force gusts up to 35 knots possible, especially near the Twin Ports and along the North Shore. This will build waves to 4 to 8 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters. Winds and waves will gradually diminish on Saturday as the system pulls away, with calmer conditions expected by Saturday night and Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon due to a very dry air mass and breezy winds for portions of the Northland. Relative humidity values will drop as low as 23 to 33 percent, especially near the International Border and inland northwest Wisconsin. Southeast winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 mph with gusts peaking around 20 to 25 mph. Cloud cover and widespread rain showers will overspread the area late this afternoon and tonight, bringing an end to the immediate threat of fire weather. A wetting rain is likely for Minnesota, but probably not Wisconsin. Minimum relative humidity values will recover to 45 to 55 percent or higher on Saturday. Most of next week MinRH flirts with the 30s.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147- 150.