textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The next round of rain and storms arrive Friday PM. This is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

- A second round of rainfall chances begins Sunday afternoon and goes through Monday, but with mainly light to moderate rainfall and possibly embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

- A pattern change to noticeably cooler temperatures is favored this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

High pressure is moving into the area this morning, with light winds across the Northland. With clear skies, localized fog has developed at a few of the more typical foggy locations. Any fog will lift quickly with sunrise this morning. Current temperatures are in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and expect locations across the Arrowhead to drop into the lower 40s over the next few hours.

Winds turn to the southwest today, with weak warm advection occurring. With sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the 70s. Temperatures tonight will remain on the warm side, with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Warm temperatures continue Friday, ahead of an approaching storm system, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

By Friday early afternoon, severe weather chances begin to first increase for north-central Minnesota as an advancing cold front stemming from a low pressure over central Manitoba shifts into the Upper Midwest. Global ensemble guidance is progging a moist airmass around 1.5 inches of precipitable water lining up with favorable mid-level lapse rates and instability profiles. This supports an uptick in thunderstorm development likely early to mid-afternoon, first in the Brainerd Lakes to Leech Lakes region. By later afternoon as better shear moves into the region and CAPE values continue to indicate a growing availability of energy for storm growth, the more likely time period for severe weather sets up into northeast Minnesota for late afternoon to the early to mid evening hours. The stateline counties of northwest Wisconsin right along the Minnesota and Wisconsin border would also be included in this greatest severe weather threat for Friday evening when damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected under this environmental setup and we will have to watch for possible minor flooding Friday evening. Severe weather chances will taper late Friday evening to early overnight as the cold front and troughing move through the region. Expect a downturn in shower activity from west-northwest to east-southeast Friday night.

Gusty northwest winds return for Saturday daytime under cooler temperatures as high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front. For Saturday late night into Sunday early morning, far northern Minnesota likely sees temperatures dipping into the upper 30s. We will have to monitor for any mid 30s potential as well in the usual cold spots near the Iron Range and into the Arrowhead up into Koochiching County.

Sunday afternoon into Monday, a warm front sets up south of the region into southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin to create gusty easterly onshore winds for all lakeshore areas. This pattern also favors a more fall-like cloudy and longer duration light to moderate rainfall with embedded general thunderstorm potential for Monday daytime. While the rainfall ends by Tuesday daytime, fall-like near-normal to cooler temperatures and more breezy conditions will persist into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Mostly clear skies tonight as high pressure builds across the area. Winds are generally light and variable, with slightly higher northwesterly breezes at DLH. Cannot rule out very localized fog overnight, in the typical trouble spots, but will hold off on vis reductions for now.

Thursday, southwest winds at 7-10kts are expected through the day, with VFR cigs. Winds turn to the south late in the forecast period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

High pressure is moving into the area tonight, with winds now less than 10kts. While light, winds will become southwesterly Thursday morning, then southerly through the afternoon. There is a brief period Thursday afternoon of a few gusts near Grand Portage of 22-24kts. Otherwise expect gusts below 20 kt. Gusty southwest winds are expected again Friday, and Small Crafts will likely be needed along portions of the North Shore, especially from Grand Marais northward. Showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms capable of strong winds to around 40 kt and large hail are possible.

Gusty winds persist through Saturday with a wind shift to west- northwesterly through the day. Monday and Tuesday will pose a threat for hazardous marine conditions. Gales are possible (40-60% chance), especially along the North Shore, on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Dry weather is expected today with high pressure over the region. Winds will be fairly light from the southwest with gusts to around 12-18 mph. RH may fall to around 35 percent, especially for usually dry places like the Pine Barrens in northwest Wisconsin. Friday morning through midday, expect some breezy southwest to south winds and some locally dry conditions in northwest Wisconsin ahead of expected rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. A wetting rain is likely for most places, and heavy rainfall amounts around one inch are possible for some areas. While there's some uncertainty in exact location, northeast Minnesota currently has the best chance for seeing heavy rainfall amounts.

Dry weather is likely Saturday, and RH may fall to around 40 percent for many places. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph are likely as well. Rainfall from Friday may lessen any fire weather concerns.

An active weather pattern continues with more widespread rain and thunderstorms likely Sunday into Monday. Wetting rains are possible for most places.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.