textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- High swim risk this afternoon and evening for Twin Ports beaches due to strong northeast winds and building waves.

- Elevated fire weather danger Sunday for areas north of the Iron Range in far northern MN.

- Hot and muggy conditions beset the region Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat headlines may be needed.

- Rain chances Sunday night through Monday. Severe storms chances return Tuesday and Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Locally dense fog has developed near the Twin Ports and inland into Carlton County per latest satellite imagery and observations. Visibilities range from 1/4 to 3 miles. A Special Weather Statement has been issued. Expect visibilities to improve within the few hours following sunrise.

Have also issued a Beach Hazard Statement for Twin Ports beaches this afternoon and evening as strong northeast winds and waves building to 3-4 ft will lead to a high risk of rip currents.

UPDATE

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

High pressure shifts east of the region tonight with winds turning southerly to southeasterly for Sunday. The strongest winds will remain west of the Northland, but gusts to 20 to 25 mph will be possible in our far western areas. These winds should help advect some low level moisture northward leading to some minor improvement in afternoon RH values. Given these factors, will replace the Fire Weather Watch with an SPS and give future shifts time to re-evaluate trends. Breezy easterly winds today on western Lake Superior will likely lead to hazardous swimming conditions at the head of the lake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level ridge combined with surface high pressure is leading to a sunny and a quiet day across the region. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid and upper 80s by this afternoon. Dry conditions are also on tap with Min RHs dropping into the 30s and mid 20s. Minimal wind today will keep fire weather danger in check. Overnight, some fog may advect in from Lake Superior with most guidance keeping it confined along the shoreline with some spillage at the head of the Lake into the St. Louis River and surrounding low lying areas.

Sunday:

The upper level trough shifts east with southwest flow aloft promoting further warming temperatures for the day. High temps are expected to climb into the the 90s and upper 80s with cooler temperatures remaining near Lake Superior. An emerging low pressure in the High Plains will lead to a strengthening pressure gradient over the region with southerly winds increasing. This increase in winds paired with dry conditions will prompt increased fire weather danger, particularly across our northwest counties near the Borderlands.

Monday:

Sunday night into Monday morning will see increased chances of shower and storm activity once again. The Northland will find itself firmly within a warm sector, the persistent southeast flow will have led to PWATs increasing to over 1.75". Isentropic ascent paired with an upper level trough moving in from the south will help to brew some showers. Some storms can't be ruled out as some weak MUCAPE will be in play, but bulk shear will be absent lending itself to non severe storms expected. Model soundings do show some deep saturation through the column which as currently depicted in the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance may lead to a nice soaking rain for a the Northland. One thing that will need to be monitored is the cold front advancing across the Northern Plains on Monday. Current guidance does not have it breaching our borders before becoming washed out and overtaken by strong warm air advection. But if it manages to maintain, it will have better deep layer shear and could introduce some severe storms across our west. Currently SPC has the threat outside of our region, but worth watching.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

The region then becomes beset with a warm and moist air mass for Tuesday and Wednesday. High temps will climb into the 90s and our dew points will float around the 60s and 70s with Wednesday expected to be the hottest and muggiest day of the week. Heat indices will go from 90F to some triple digits from the Brainerd lakes region into NW WI. Heat headlines may be needed.

As expected with a warm and moist air mass, severe potential cannot be ruled out for Tuesday and Wednesday. MLCAPE will frequently be in excess of 2000 J/kg. With the upper level pattern remaining meridional we will have multiple chances for impulses to roll through the region, if these can admix with diurnal heating we could see strong to severe storms. We are still a little ways out to get into the specifics but confidence is high enough with decent ensemble agreement that SPC has us highlighted in a slight risk for Wednesday, but would not fully rule out Tuesday's severe potential as well.

Late week into the weekend:

Cluster analysis shows an upper level low or wave ushering the warm and moist air mass off to the east. However, exact timing still remains in flux with CMCE and the GEFS being more progressive than the ECMWF. But if we take the overall blend from all the families we get relief from the heat starting Thursday and Friday. Precipitation activity also has low predictability at this time range with the Euro favoring a stalled out upper level low over the Canadian Prairies which would increase precipitation chances. The other families are a little less excited with a more progressive upper level pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail until tonight. Some fog and low stratus streaming off of Lake Superior into DYT and SUW is remaining southeast of DLH. Skies will be clear to start, with clouds increasing later this afternoon into tonight ahead of showers and storms with a warm front spreading north and east into the Northland tonight into Monday. Earliest arrival of shower and storm potential will be at BRD, with MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility possible with the showers and storms. Meanwhile, later arrival of showers and storms at other terminals means MVFR conditions with convection will also be later to arrive tonight.

Increasing southeast winds today with gusts to around 20 knots to locally 25 knots will be possible through the day before diminishing after sunset. Can't rule out some LLWS at BRD/DLH/HIB/INL late this evening and tonight, but it is borderline at best with some uncertainty as to how strong the surface winds will be overnight. For now, have left LLWS mention out of the TAFs.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Update: Opted to issue Small Craft Advisories for this afternoon and evening in the SW arm of Lake Superior and from Taconite Harbor north to Grand Portage as northeast winds of 20-25 kt will develop along with waves building to as high as 3-4 feet.

Previous Forecast: Main forecast concern in the short term will be areas of dense fog across the western arm of the lake through mid to late morning. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the North Shore and from the Twin Ports to Sand Island. Winds will increase later this morning into this afternoon from the east with gusts to around 20 knots, highest near the Twin Ports. A few higher gusts to 25 knots will be possible as well. This will generate waves of 2 to 4 feet at the head of the lake as well and may lead to hazardous conditions to small craft. Winds will remain easterly for Monday, but will top out at around 15 knots. Chances for showers and thunderstorms then return for Monday and Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 115 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Highs today will be in the 80s and lower 90s for most with 60s and 70s near Lake Superior. Winds will be southerly to southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 to perhaps 25 mph, strongest in far western areas. These southerly winds should start to bring in a bit more low level moisture leading to slightly better afternoon RH values with values remaining above 30%. Some areas may dip into the 25 to 30% range in Koochiching, northern Itasca, and northern St. Louis counties, but is not expected to be widespread. A more active weather period arrives Monday and lasts through the week with multiple chances for wetting rainfalls.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>146. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>146.