textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisories are in effect tonight into Tuesday for a wintry mix of snow and up to a tenth of an inch of ice which will make the Tuesday morning commute slippery across the Northland.

- There is a 20% chance for snow squalls late Tuesday afternoon into early evening for areas along and north of the Iron Range.

- Confidence is increasing for a large winter system to impact the Northland with significant snowfall on Thursday. The snow will be paired with a 24-hour period of northeast gales on Lake Superior and will likely cause blowing and drifting snow too.

- A second large system arrives this weekend with a warmer thermal profile, resulting in a messy wintry mix rather than pure snow. Both systems have the potential to be disruptive.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Clouds will continue to thicken this afternoon. Easterly flow increases off Lake Superior ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Dry air in the lower levels will gradually saturate, setting the stage for a messy period of precipitation starting tonight. Confidence has increased regarding freezing rain potential tonight, prompting the issuance of Winter Weather Advisories across the region. We are expecting a west to east band of up to a tenth of an inch of ice, with the most likely belt centered just to the south of Duluth. However, a slight shift north or south in the precipitation band with this system could impact the Borderlands, where a southward drift means more snow, and a northward drift means more ice.

This wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will continue through the overnight hours, which will make for a very slippery Tuesday morning commute. Precipitation will gradually taper off to scattered snow showers by Tuesday afternoon as the departs though expect some isolated to scattered wrap-around light snow showers Tuesday afternoon into early evening, primarily along and north of the Iron Range. Given steep low- level lapse rates and breezy northwest winds, there is a low (20% chance) that a few snow squalls could develop from these snow showers, though confidence is low at the moment. Winds will shift out of the northwest and remain breezy through Tuesday evening.

Wednesday provides a brief, dry window with seasonable temperatures and mostly sunny skies, though low minimum relative humidities again, before a very active late-week pattern takes hold.

Two prominent Colorado low pressure systems are poised to impact the Upper Midwest. For the first system arriving on Thursday, confidence continues to increase for a more northerly track. Thermal profiles are colder for this system, which means it will be a mainly snow event for the Northland. We expect accumulating snow throughout the day on Thursday. However, given the late March sun angle, it is historically difficult to accumulate impactful snow on paved surfaces during the daylight hours without heavy snowfall rates in early April. We will be closely monitoring the intensity and timing of this system as it approaches. In addition to the snow, the tightening pressure gradient will produce a prolonged 24-hour period of northeast gales on Lake Superior spanning Thursday into Friday. Still a little too early to issue any watch for this system as its track yesterday was still well to our south highlighting the lack of confidence in its track and thus impacts. While individual ensemble members from the two ensemble camps are well aligned, the camps differ by a fair amount in the handling of this system.

The active pattern refuses to quit, with the second Colorado low progged to arrive as early as Friday night and persists through the weekend. Unlike the Thursday system, the weekend storm features a much warmer thermal profile. This will result in a very messy wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and snow that will straddle the Northland with snow to the north and rain to the south. Exact precipitation types and amounts will depend heavily on the eventual track of this weekend storm, but we expect continued travel disruptions for the Easter weekend travel.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 701 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions expected for several hours this evening, then trending to MVFR ceilings and visibility after midnight as a clipper system approaches from the west. Expect some mixed freezing rain and snow at INL/HIB and likely just freezing rain at DLH/HYR. BRD may see only rain showers. Precipitation type and intensity is still in question a bit with some banded precipitation expected, leading to some locally lower visibilities that may pass over or just miss some terminals anywhere from DLH to INL. As of now, DLH has the highest chance of seeing these bands of mostly freezing rain pass through late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Brief IFR visibilities and ceilings can't be ruled out. Winds are expected to switch from easterly to northwesterly behind a cold front late morning into the afternoon Tuesday, with drier air moving in and leading to clearing skies and VFR conditions. Wind speeds are expected to decrease tonight, then increase behind the cold front with gusts in the 15-20 kt range Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 927 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

For this update, I downgraded Gale Warnings to Small Craft Advisories a few hours early. Observed wind gusts are below gale criteria, though we can expect gusts to 30 kt through tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore zones tonight and expire gradually through Tuesday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ018>020-025-026-034>038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ010-011. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ012-021. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ001>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>143- 146-147. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ150.