textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms move through late tonight through Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening across northwest Wisconsin.

- Low chances for precipitation through the weekend and into next week.

- Temperatures remain above normal into next week with highs in the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

High pressure stretched from the Central Plaints into the Great Lakes early this afternoon. An area of low pressure was located to the northwest of Lake Winnipeg with a cold front trailing into southern Saskatchewan and far northern Montana. A trough of low pressure was analyzed from another low on the southwestern shore of Hudson Bay southwestward into far northwestern Ontario, southeastern Manitoba and into the central Dakotas. A strengthening pressure gradient between the low to the north and high pressure to the south was creating gusty southwesterly winds across the Northland this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph recorded. Heading into tonight, the cold front will drop to the south and begin moving into northern Minnesota by around daybreak Friday. There may be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight with the pre-frontal trough, but with dry air near the surface, not much is expected to reach the ground.

The front will work from northwest to southeast across the Northland during the day Friday, reaching the North Shore and Twin Ports by around midday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front during the morning as it works across northeastern Minnesota. Meanwhile, increasing moisture and mainly clear skies across northwest Wisconsin will lead to CAPE around 2500 J/kg ahead of the front for the afternoon hours. Strong to a few possible severe storms will be possible during the afternoon across northwest Wisconsin as the front moves through. Shear looks to be less than 20 knots, so any severe threat will be low end with mainly pulse- type storms. Decent 700-500 mb lapse rates above 7C/km and DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg will result in a low end threat for marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Chances for storms across northwest Wisconsin will linger through the evening before the front clears the region. Highs Friday will be in the 70s and lower 80s.

Weak surface high pressure will be in place for Saturday with northwest flow aloft. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will be seen Saturday night into Sunday morning with a weak frontal boundary developing across the Upper Midwest as a mid- level impulse moves through. Given the expected current timing, strong or severe storms are not expected. High pressure will then build in to start the week with chances for precipitation returning midweek as another impulse in the quasi-zonal flow aloft moves through the Upper Midwest. Temperatures for the weekend into next week will remain above normal with highs in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Largely VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A couple thunderstorms could impact INL this evening and early tomorrow morning. A cold front pushes across the area through Friday, brining a shower and thunderstorm chance to all terminals except BRD. Winds will switch from the southwest ahead of the front to the northwest behind the front with some afternoon gusts of 15-20mph possible.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Breezy southwesterly winds will continue to gust to 20 to 30 knots into this evening before diminishing overnight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the North Shore, the Twin Ports area, and the northern Bayfield Peninsula. A cold front will move through for late tonight into Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front with gusts to 15 to 20 knots Friday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Grand Marais to Grand Portage into Friday afternoon for lingering waves. Southwesterly winds Saturday may gust to 20 to 25 knots and may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft along parts of the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue to gust to 20 to 30 mph into this evening before slowly weakening. A cold front will begin to move through the region from northwest to southeast tonight with chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. The best chance for any rainfall will be from the I-35 corridor eastward across northwest Wisconsin Friday afternoon. However, unless a storm passes overhead, rainfall is expected to be minimal. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front with gusts to 20 to 25 mph Friday. Highs Friday will reach into the 70s and lower 80s with afternoon RH values in the 40 to 55% range. Lower RH values of 35 to 40% will be possible in the Brainerd Lakes area. Most locations will remain dry through the weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s. Westerly winds may gust to 20 to 25 mph across the Arrowhead Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>146.