textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures are showing up in some of the guidance for Sunday and Monday, which could require heat headlines across the region. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in guidance though.

- A severe thunderstorm threat exists for Friday afternoon and evening, and again on Sunday, with large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

- Rainfall will be here and there, but not really a good soaking in sight aside from if you get lucky from a thunderstorm.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

For the rest of today and tonight across the Northland, generally quiet and seasonable conditions will prevail. High pressure keeps our skies mostly sunny with afternoon temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s. A stray shower or isolated storm might pop up near the International Border this afternoon, but most locations will remain completely dry. Overnight lows will comfortably drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s under mostly clear skies.

Friday will feature a noticeable increase in heat and humidity ahead of an approaching cold front. As this front pushes into the region, we are monitoring a severe threat for Friday afternoon and evening across north-central Minnesota. The primary hazards with these elevated storms will be large hail up to ping pong ball size and damaging wind gusts. This particular impulse is leftover convection that should be dying or on the downhill as it moves from the Dakotas into Minnesota. Some storms may hold together to pose a threat especially if they stay in a line.

Behind the front on Saturday, conditions dry out, but the heat quickly builds back in as an upper-level ridge amplifies over the region. Hot temperatures are showing up in some of the guidance for Sunday and Monday, which could push heat temperatures well into the 90s and possibly the low 100s. In addition to the sweltering conditions, another severe threat exists again on Sunday as a mid-level boundary sets up across the area. The range in guidance for max t's likely exists as the convective threat would likely steal the energy for storms rather than heat. That is probably the likely scenario, so not hitting the heat headlines too hard. There is a small cap which also suggests convection may win out. It will be interesting to see how the higher rez convective allowing models pan out for this.

The unseasonably hot and humid pattern will persist into early next week, with Monday remaining quite hot across the Northland. A few lingering, isolated showers or storms are possible Monday into Tuesday, but the strong upper ridge will suppress most widespread activity. By the middle of next week, temperatures may moderate slightly back into the 80s, but the overall pattern remains largely dry across the region. Although we will see scattered showers and storms, rainfall will be here and there, but not really a good soaking one is in sight aside from if you get lucky from a thunderstorm.

The 6-10 day CPC outlook for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region favors a strong probability of above normal temperatures as an upper level ridge dominates the central United States. Precipitation across our area leans toward below normal probabilities.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals through the next 24 hours. Some gusty southwest winds to 15 to 20 knots will continue this afternoon at KDLH, KHIB, and KINL before subsiding this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will persist across Western Lake Superior this afternoon, leading to waves building up to 3 to 5 feet along the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect today and into this evening for these nearshore waters. Another round of strong southwest winds is expected on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front, bringing additional hazards and scattered thunderstorms late Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible today as minimum relative humidity values drop to 30 to 40 percent alongside southwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph. Winds will remain breezy on Friday and into the weekend as hot temperatures build across the region. With afternoon relative humidity values hovering between 35 and 45 percent and only isolated chances for wetting rain, the general trend will feature drying fuels and near- critical conditions through early next week. Friday gives the best chance for wetting rain over the wildfire areas near the Intl Border. Hot and dry with periodic gusty winds to 25 mph through the forecast. Several wind switches too, but Friday looks to be the gustiest day.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140- 141. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142- 143-146-147-150.