textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief, but intense, snow showers today will lead to minor accumulations and potentially slick roads.

- Strong northwest winds gusting 40 mph will cause blowing snow through Saturday.

- Dangerous wind chills of 20 to 35 degrees below zero will develop tonight and persist through Sunday morning.

- A significant warm-up is expected next week with temperatures climbing well above freezing Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

A cold front is currently moving across the Northland, bringing a round of light snow showers to the region. While snowfall amounts will generally remain under one inch, the timing may impact travel with slick spots on untreated surfaces and brief, but intense visibility reductions. As the front passes, the wind will shift to the northwest and increase significantly. Forecast guidance suggests gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be common across the area this afternoon and tonight, with stronger gusts up to 45 mph possible along the North Shore due to terrain effects. These winds may cause areas of blowing snow in open country, reducing visibility even after the falling snow ends.

The primary concern for the weekend is the arrival of arctic air behind this system. Temperatures will tumble through the afternoon and bottom out in the teens to twenties below zero tonight. When combined with the strong winds, wind chill values will drop into the 25 to 40 below zero range. Frostbite can occur on exposed skin in as little as 10 to 30 minutes in these conditions.

Bitterly cold conditions will persist through Saturday, with high temperatures struggling to reach zero degrees for many locations. Winds will remain elevated, resulting in dangerous wind chills. By Sunday, high pressure will begin to build in, allowing winds to ease slightly, though a very cold start to the day is still expected.

Looking ahead to next week, the pattern shifts dramatically. Warmer air will surge back into the region on southerly winds. We expect high temperatures to rebound into the 20s by Monday and likely climb above freezing into the 30s for Tuesday and Wednesday. This warming trend looks to persist through much of the week, offering a reprieve from the weekend deep freeze.

May see an organized system with more of a southern connection late next week though guidance is still waffling with its existence.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Some MVFR ceilings persist this evening, but should become VFR over the next few hours. There is some uncertainty about ceilings for INL - a lot of guidance points to IFR ceilings moving in through this evening, but there are no upstream observations that support that. Have opted to keep a MVFR ceiling on it and amend if needed over the next couple hours should those lower values materialize. Gusty west to northwest winds persist through the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 129 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Conditions will deteriorate rapidly on Western Lake Superior this afternoon. Northwest winds will increase significantly behind the cold front. A Gale Warning is in effect for the North Shore zones where gusts up to 40 knots are expected tonight. Heavy Freezing Spray is also a major concern along the South Shore and Apostle Islands due to the combination of strong winds, waves, and very cold air. Winds temporarily decrease on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-144>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>143. Gale Warning until 8 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140>143. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.