textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries are expected the rest of today into Sunday for areas with mostly cloudy to overcast skies. A dusting of snowfall is expected.

- Winter Weather Advisory issued for Iron County, WI due to moderate lake-effect snow rates from late this evening through Sunday evening. 3 to 7 inches of snow are possible in northern Iron County and 1 to 3 inches of snow in southern Iron County.

- Cooler temperatures persist through Monday. Sub-zero wind chills are expected each night and morning, coldest Sunday night into Monday morning.

- A series of two low pressure systems move through the Midwest early to mid-week. The first system will be Monday night through Tuesday and bring widespread snow chances to most of the Northland, especially the Arrowhead. The second system on Wednesday into early Thursday could brush southern southern portions of the area or miss us entirely to the south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Today - Sunday Flurries:

Plenty of sunshine to be seen across most of the Northland this afternoon as some drier low and mid-level air has hung around. The exception has been low stratus with flurries being observed in northwest Wisconsin. However, with additional low-level moisture returning this evening and tonight, expect lower stratus and off-and-on flurries to return.

A shortwave diving southeast across western and southern Minnesota on Sunday combined with gusty northwest winds and steep low-level lapse rates should create horizontal convective roll clouds on Sunday, bringing sporadic flurries to very light snow showers under those clouds. Any snowfall amounts should be minimal, generally a dusting as the chance for greater than 0.1" of snow sits at 20%.

South Shore Lake-Effect Snow through Sunday Night:

Confidence has increased in the expectation for minor travel impacts for late this evening into Sunday night in the northern Iron County snow belts due to lake-effect snow given cold 850 mb temperatures of -15C to -20C and a favorable fetch of northwest winds across a mostly open Lake Superior due to a noticeable decrease in ice concentrations as a result of the recent blizzard/winter storm. Light lake-effect snow is currently ongoing, but should pick up to a more moderate intensity later this evening through Sunday evening before easing in intensity Sunday night as drier air overspreads the area from the north into early Monday. Model soundings show lake-induced instability of 300-500 J/kg with saturation in the dendritic growth zone (DGZ) from 700-900 mb this evening and tonight, producing a fluffier snow consistency. While we lose some of this DGZ saturation depth on Sunday due to some cooling above 875 mb, steep lapse rates will be present and aid in a more showery/convective nature to the Sunday snowfall. 12Z HREF probabilities also suggest prolonged snowfall rates around 1/4-1/3 inches per hour during this timeframe with medium to high probabilities of visibility of around 1 mile or less. All told, this will likely produce some slick travel conditions for tonight to Sunday night before snowfall rates drop off. Total snowfall amounts of 3-7" are forecast for northern Iron County in the Penokee range, with lighter accumulations of 1-3" in the southern half of Iron County. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for late this evening through Sunday evening.

Cooler Temperatures through Monday:

A cooler airmass persists over the Northland through Monday, with the coldest portion being Sunday night into Monday morning. Expect high temperatures in the teens to low 20s through Monday. Low temperatures will be in the single digits above and below zero tonight and single digits to teens below zero for most of the Northland Sunday night/Monday morning. The coldest areas will be the Arrowhead and Borderlands, where Sunday night/Monday morning wind chills could dip into the 20s below zero due to gusty northwest winds.

Early to Mid-week Low Pressure Systems:

Our next more widespread potential for accumulating snow arrives with an Alberta Clipper Monday night through Tuesday. Moisture with this system doesn't look to be too much out of the ordinary for late February (PWATs around 0.2-0.35"). GEFS and ECMWF ensemble low tracks are in good agreement on the timing of this system, but still show a non-trivial amount of spread in how far north or south the surface low pressure center tracks (as far south as south-central Minnesota to just north of the International Border). Right now the majority of these tracks would take the low pressure center west to east across the Northland, favoring the highest snowfall and rates through the Arrowhead and South Shore. Latest NBM snowfall probabilities with a 50%+ chance for 2" or more of snow are along and north of US Hwy 2 in northeast Minnesota and east of US Hwy 53 in northwest Wisconsin. Meanwhile, 4"+ probabilities of 40-55% are mainly for the North Shore along and north of Silver Bay, with a 15-30% chance for 4"+ in northwest and north-central Wisconsin. The least amount of snow is favored in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley where probabilities of 1+" are only 25-45%.

Snow with this first clipper ends from west to east late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, another clipper-type system coming out of the northern U.S. Rockies will dive southeast through the Plains on Wednesday, into Iowa/Missouri vicinity Wednesday night and then into the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. While ensemble low tracks still show quite a bit of spread/lower confidence, there has been a notable southward trend in the surface low tracks over the last several model runs. We are only carrying 20-30% precipitation chances for Wednesday into early Thursday--highest in the southern half of the forecast area--as there is a fairly good potential that the Northland could completely miss out on the snowband on the northern side of this second system if the southward trend in surface low tracks holds.

Active Weather Pattern Late This Week and Weekend:

In the wake of the mid-week low pressure systems, the Northland stays in a general northwest flow pattern, though a weak ridge moves over the central CONUS for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures increase to the upper 20s to mid 40s on Thursday and even into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Friday before another Clipper system potentially impacts the Upper Midwest late Friday/Saturday. Behind this late-week system should be a return of cooler temperatures once again for next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 524 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the Northland early this evening. MVFR stratus is expected to fill back in this evening and persist through the remainder of the period. Light flurries will be possible at times under this stratus deck, but is not expected to lead to any visibility restrictions. Winds will remain gusty out of the northwest with gusts to 15 to 25 knots, highest during the daytime hours on Sunday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 238 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Northwest winds today into early Sunday veer to northerly for the second half of Sunday through early Monday. Winds will strengthen this evening and remain strong into Sunday evening before gradually weakening Sunday night into Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect this evening into early Monday morning, as wind gusts increase to 25-30 knots. Waves will also be building up to 3-6 feet in the Outer Apostle Islands and parts of the South Shore in ice-free areas tonight through Sunday evening. This combination of strong winds, elevated waves, and cooler temperatures Sunday evening could lead to some patchy freezing spray in the Outer Apostle Islands. However, coverage seems limited and the potential fairly brief, so decided against heavy freezing spray headlines with this forecast update. Light and variable winds on Monday become southeasterly Monday night and increase once again, particularly for the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST Sunday night for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Sunday night for LSZ141>146. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ148-150.