textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold temperatures and wind chills are expected today into Saturday. An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for all of the Northland.

- Light lake effect snow accumulating to an inch or less is expected along portions of the South Shore today into the weekend. Flurries possible elsewhere today with only a dusting expected.

- While there will be a slight warming trend starting late this weekend, temperatures are forecast to remain on the cold side through next week with minimal snow chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Extremely cold temperatures are ongoing this morning across the Northland as an Arctic airmass remains over the Great Lakes and northern Plains regions. As of early this morning, air temperatures are currently around the -20s to -30s. Northwest winds have remained on the breezy side this morning as the pressure gradient remains tight as low pressure located near Hudson Bay lingers and high pressure moves southeast into the north-central CONUS from the Canadian prairies.

With these northwest winds, wind chills this morning will range from the -40s to as cold as -60 degrees. Due to these dangerous temperatures and wind chills, an Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect for all of the CWA through today and into Saturday. High temps this afternoon will only be rising into the negative teens with wind chills remaining in the -20s to around -30. For tonight, winds do ease somewhat as the low pressure near Hudson Bay propagates downstream and high pressure becomes dominant. While winds won't be as strong tonight into Saturday, brutal cold persists with wind chills in the -30s to -40s.

In addition to the brutal cold, there have also been ongoing lake effect snow showers in the lee of Lake Superior along the South Shore overnight. With the Arctic air over western Lake Superior, delta-T between the lake sfc and 850mb is an extreme 30-35 degC with an impressive 800-1000 J/kg of lake induced CAPE. While the thermodynamics are excellent, snow accumulations are much less impressive as temps are well below the DGZ and snow character is expected to predominately expected to be fine columns and small plates rather than heavily accumulating, fluffy dendrites. Lake effect snow is very likely (60+% chance) to continue along much of the South Shore today through Saturday, notably around the Bayfield Peninsula, with total snow amounts around an inch or less.

Away from Lake Superior's South Shore, snow chances over the next few days will be minimal. An influx of low-level moisture associated with the arriving high pressure combined with marginal lift around the 925-850mb layer late this morning into the afternoon could touch off some flurries, especially as the frigid airmass will be quick to saturate and precipitate. CAMs show minimal simulated reflectivity today, which decreases confidence in the placement of potential horizontal convective rolls. Therefore, the forecast update this morning kept the area that could see flurries fairly broad. The expectation is that flurries today will be hit or miss with accumulations only around a dusting.

Starting Sunday, temperatures will begin taking a warming trend, which is forecast to continue through next week. While temperatures won't be quite as dangerous as today and tomorrow, it will still be on the chilly side with highs in the single digits for early next week. With the exception of Tuesday morning, there is also very high 80+% confidence that every single low temp in the forecast period will be sub-zero. Additional cold weather headlines may be needed, particularly on Monday morning as wind chills once again drop in the -20s to around -40 degrees. Weak Clippers will be possible next week, but the overall chance for widespread snow is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Arctic high pressure centered over the Dakotas this afternoon was keeping clouds at bay for now. We still think clouds will develop this afternoon and will be accompanied by light snow showers. Kept the PROB30s with MVFR visibility in the forecast while pushing the start time back a few hours. VFR conditions are expected tonight and Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 347 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Strong and gusty westerly winds are forecast today. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect, with a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning also persisting in the outer Apostle Islands this morning. Winds and waves are expected to subside Friday evening as high pressure builds. A low pressure system will pass through the region Monday night and Tuesday, backing winds southwesterly while speeds and gusts increase on Monday. Conditions will become hazardous for smaller craft due to these increased winds and the potential for building waves along the western shore of the Bayfield Peninsula.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>148-150. Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Saturday for LSZ142. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CST today for LSZ150.