textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (<30%) for light snow showers across the Arrowhead tonight into Monday morning.

- Better precipitation chances arrive Monday afternoon and continue into Monday night with rain, snow, and wintry mix all possible, mainly along and south of the Iron Range and across northwest Wisconsin.

- Extended forecast remains devoid of significant precipitation chances, but temperatures warm above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

High pressure was centered over Lake Huron this afternoon and extended across the Great Lakes and into the Southeast CONUS. Various weak lows and fronts were analyzed across the Canadian Prairies into the central CONUS. Mainly cloudy skies were in place across the Northland with light southerly to southeasterly winds. This onshore flow along the North Shore into the Arrowhead may lead to some light snow showers. Dry air near the surface remains a concern, however, with dewpoint depressions still over 10F despite models being much more moist in the low levels. Have backed off on chances for this and pushed it later into this evening to give the low levels more time to saturate, but that may hold off until later Monday when the next system arrives. Any chances tonight into Monday morning will be around 30% or less, highest along the North Shore terrain ridge.

A clipper will pass to our north on Monday with a shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow aloft sliding through the Upper Midwest for Monday afternoon into Monday night. Being in the warm sector of this system, highs will reach into the middle to upper 30s. Models continue to advertise an area of midlevel frontogenesis setting up across central/northern Minnesota oriented east-west starting during the afternoon hours. Timing, placement, and strength are still in question with the NAM being the most bullish in all regards. Have opted for a more balanced approach with rain and snow showers moving in starting around noon from the west and spreading eastward through the afternoon. Most of this activity looks to remain along and south of the Iron Range across Minnesota with the Borderlands possibly remaining dry until Monday night on the backside of the system. Activity during the afternoon will likely start out as rain or a rain/snow mix before transitioning to all snow during the evening hours. There may be some areas of wintry mix and freezing rain in spots during the late afternoon/early evening as temperatures cool below freezing. Latest HREF shows the best chance for any freezing rain across northwest Wisconsin with more of a rain/snow mix across northeastern Minnesota during this transition. Activity will end from west to east overnight as a cold front moves through. There may be some lingering snow showers/flurries overnight across northeastern Minnesota as another area of vorticity rotates around the low to the north. Light snow showers may also linger across Iron County into Tuesday afternoon, but winds look to be more westerly than northwesterly, which will limit lake-effect processes. Any snowfall will be under an inch with a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible across northwest Wisconsin.

Northwest flow will keep a fairly benign pattern in place over the remainder of the week with temperatures running above normal. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler than Monday behind the cold front in the 20s and low 30s before warming back into the 30s for Thursday and Friday. The above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend with no chances for significant precipitation through the extended period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions across the region as of issuance time are expected to continue overnight into Monday morning. A low pressure system over southern Manitoba will slowly slide east into northwest Ontario on Monday. A wave associated with this system will help produce a wave of precipitation which tracks west to east in the late afternoon and overnight hours. It should also bring ceilings down to MVFR and IFR with MVFR visibilities. This wave will see several precipitation type changes, initially being rain but slowly moving to a brief period of freezing rain before going all snow in the overnight period. Accumulations will be low with minimal impacts expected.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 341 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Southerly winds of 5 to 15 knots tonight will become southwesterly on Monday and increase to 10 to 20 knots during the day Monday. There may be a few gusts to near 25 knots from the Grand Portage area eastward from around sunrise through midday. Winds will diminish Monday night and veer westerly behind a cold front before increasing Tuesday to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots along the North Shore from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. This may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft through the day Tuesday as winds continue to veer northwesterly and then weaken Tuesday night. High pressure will then lead to variable winds at 10 knots or less through much of the remainder of the week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.