textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing moisture and a daily freeze/thaw cycle will lead to morning fog and stratus over the next few days.

- A more active pattern arrives heading into the weekend with precipitation chances returning starting Friday. Rain, mixed precipitation and a little snow are all possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Strong high pressure was located off the Eastern Seaboard and extended westward into the central CONUS. A stationary boundary was analyzed across northern Minnesota into North Dakota. Southerly winds around the periphery of the high to the east were leading to warm air advection across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains. This was leading to the development of low stratus across northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Some patchy fog was also developing as well.

This will be the trend for today and tomorrow with fog and/or low stratus developing during the early morning hours and slowly eroding away through the day. Highs will be well above normal in the 40s and 50s which will lead to snowmelt during the day. This will then add low level moisture that will aid in the development of the low fog and stratus. A weak cold front will move into Minnesota today, but it is expected to wash out over the region. This front may help lift any lingering fog and low stratus today, but will not have much of an impact with temperatures as there isn't a strong push of colder air associated with it.

Thursday will see an area of low pressure pass well to our south across Missouri and Illinois. This will turn winds easterly across the Northland and western Lake Superior. Cooler air will spread inland and suppress highs into the 30s and lower 40s over much of the region. Some upper 40s and lower 50s will remain possible across the Brainerd Lakes area into the St. Croix Valley.

A deep trough will build into the Intermountain West Thursday into Friday and lead to surface cyclogenesis across the lee of the Rockies in eastern Colorado. At the same time, a cold front will drop out of Canada into the Red River Valley of the North. Moisture will spread northward along the cold front into the Northland during the day on Friday, spreading rainfall across the region. PWATs with this system are forecast to be above the 90th percentile and in excess of three quarters of an inch and near 1 inch in some spots. This will lead to moderate to heavy rainfall at times, especially if a deformation band develops somewhere across the region. The cold front then moves through Friday night and changes the rain over the snow. Most of the QPF looks to have fallen by that point, so not much in terms of snow accumulation is currently expected. The rainfall and snowmelt may lead to minor rises on area waterways through the weekend.

Temperatures will reach into the upper 30s and 40s on Saturday before warming into the middle 40s to middle 50s on Sunday. Another system will pass to the north on Sunday and may bring chances for precipitation to the Northland, mainly across northern areas. This looks to set up a temperature gradient across the region with upper 30s to the north and lower 50s to the south on Monday as a frontal boundary remains draped across northern Minnesota. Another system will move through in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe with additional precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low stratus is leading to MVFR to IFR conditions across the region. Some fog is seen in spots, but is VFR and is not expected to lead to any visibility reductions. The stratus will be slow to scatter or lift, likely not until mid to late afternoon. Any improvement is expected to be short lived as low stratus and fog is expected to return this evening and remain through the overnight hours. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected after midnight. Winds will be light and variable through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 341 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

No hazardous conditions are expected over the next 48 hours. Winds today and tomorrow will remain under 15 knots. Northeasterly winds Thursday will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots that may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.