textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through Saturday.

- Next chance of rain (20-40%) is Friday afternoon into Saturday.

- Near-normal temperatures return Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Low pressure is moving across northern Ontario this morning with a cold front trailing into northern MN. Radar returns show some weak echoes across northern MN but with the dry air in the low levels we don't anticipate any of this activity to make it to the surface. The frontal boundary will march slowly across the Northland today with winds turning from southerly to northerly with its passage. High pressure will build in behind the boundary with cloud cover largely clearing out by mid day. This will allow ample time for temperatures to recover with another warm day expected as afternoon high temperatures climb into the 60s and low 70s. Overnight, radiational cooling paired with lightly mixed winds and low level moisture could lead to areas of fog developing (30-50% chance).

Tomorrow:

Transient surface high pressure will drift eastward across the region Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. Temperatures will remain well above normal as winds turn southerly. Lows Thursday morning will range from the low 30s to around 40 degrees. Look for highs in the low 60s to low 70s, about 10-20 degrees above normal. Temps will be cooler for portions of the North Shore and Arrowhead due to on-shore flow. Those readings will be 5-10 degrees above normal with highs in the middle 50s to low 60s.

Friday through Sunday Night:

The Pacific cutoff low will get a slight nudge eastward and is expected to move into the Intermountain West by Friday morning. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop in the Rockies and lift northeastward into Saskatchewan and Manitoba by Saturday morning. A warm front is forecast to lift northward across the Northland for the end of the work week. Isentropic ascent in the warm sector will support a chance of rain showers Friday morning over central and north-central Minnesota and spreading eastward across the Northland through Saturday morning. The highest rain chances will be found near and north of the warm front, mainly over the Iron Range and Borderlands Friday evening. Rain amounts will be meager, less than a tenth of an inch for most areas. A few locations may pick up 0.1- 0.2". Lingering precipitation chances will be possible Sunday night as upper level impulses surge northeast along the trailing boundary across the Midwest. Low confidence in the Sunday precipitation as this forecast package reintroduced the 20-30% chances after being absent from the last 2 packages. Temperatures Saturday remain around 15-25 degrees above normal as the Northland stays in the warm sector most of the day. Rain chance end from west to east Saturday and Saturday night.

Next Week:

Split flow aloft will persist into early next week. The northern stream will transition toward northwest flow as high pressure drifts eastward across the region. The northwesterly flow will bring cooler air aloft into the region. Cooler, near- normal, temperatures are expected Sunday through next Tuesday. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. The high pressure over the region will keep precipitation chances low to zero.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

A weak cold front is advancing in from the northwest this morning. Radar is showing some weak echoes associated with this boundary but not expecting any precipitation at the surface. Mid and upper level clouds will clear out through the morning hours as high pressure builds in behind the boundary. Expect winds to be light and out of the north as the behind the front. Additionally, northern MN still has a few more hours under the influence of a low level wind shear at the start of the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Southwest winds through the day around 5 to 10 knots. A front will pass over the Lake switching winds to out of the northeast tonight. Winds will continue to be on the light side until late Friday when southerly winds ramp up and could lead to hazardous boating conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

No fire weather concerns at this time. A cold front will move across the Northland this morning with southerly winds switching to out of the north behind the boundary. High pressure building in behind the exiting front will clear skies out and keep winds light. Min RHs may dry out to around 30% across northern MN. Light rain chances (20- 40%) return Friday afternoon and linger into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.