textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather is expected over the next several days with unseasonably warm high temps. Patchy fog will be the primary concern this morning and again tonight.

- An impactful system will be moving into the Upper Midwest late Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. This system will be bringing a wintry mix and the potential for moderate to heavy wet snowfall.

- An active pattern persists late this upcoming week with additional chances for snowfall as temperatures return to more seasonable levels.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Quiet weather is occurring early this morning across the Northland with mostly clear skies as high pressure remains over the Upper Midwest. Patchy fog has been occurring overnight, especially in the southern CWA where winds are comparatively lighter than locations farther north. As diurnal cooling continues early this morning and dewpoint depressions continue to decrease, additional areas of patchy fog will develop across the CWA. However, widespread dense fog is not expected this morning as the low-levels remain on the drier side following yesterday's abnormally warm temperatures.

Another warm day is anticipated today, with the mode of model guidance showing high temps this afternoon solidly around to slightly above the 75th percentile of the NBM. In the forecast update this morning, temperatures were lowered by a few degrees compared to yesterday, mainly due to increased cloud cover expected today as low to mid level moisture increases ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Despite this increased cloud cover, high temps today will be warm in the 40s to near 50 across much of the CWA.

With the increased moisture coming into the area associated with the approaching shortwave, widespread fog is likely (70% chance). The pattern remains fairly benign on Sunday through Tuesday morning as the storm track of Clippers remains well to the north of the CWA in northern Ontario and Manitoba. High temps remain on the warm side with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s and overnight lows in the teens to 20s.

Attention turns to a much more active pattern that will be developing late Tuesday and continuing through the remainder of the workweek. A deep trough is expected to develop over the western CONUS on Monday into Tuesday, with a negatively-tilted trough being ejected from this deep trough into the Upper Midwest. 00z runs of the ECMWF ensemble and GEFS came into better agreement between the two global ensembles, with MSLP centers indicating low pressure moving through the Upper Mississippi River valley by early Wednesday morning. A large deformation zone associated with this low is currently on track to be setting up over much of the CWA, bringing widespread precipitation Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

One of the main questions at this time is how far north the warm front will lift into the CWA, which will have large implications on the amount of rain versus snow from this system. While the global ensembles are coming into better agreement for low pressure moving into the Upper Midwest around midweek, small spatial differences will have large implications on precip type. At this time, the dominant precip type for most of the CWA during the duration of this midweek system is forecast to be snow.

While a rain/snow mix is likely initially, especially in the southern CWA on Tuesday afternoon and evening, this will be transitioning to all snow by Wednesday afternoon as the cold sector engulfs the area. The latest run of the NBM has a widespread 40% chance or higher for at least 4" of snow. There is also a 40% chance or higher for 8" of snow along the North Shore as easterly winds are likely to lead to lake and orographic enhancement of snowfall. If trends continue to hold, a Winter Storm Watch may be needed.

As the deep trough over the western CONUS propagates east through this upcoming week, this will eject additional shortwaves into the Upper Midwest. This keeps an active pattern over the CWA on Thursday into Friday with additional chances for snowfall as more seasonable temperatures return. While the near term will feel more springlike, this upcoming week will be a reminder that winter isn't quite over yet!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

While most terminals are seeing VFR conditions early this morning there are areas of patchy fog, most notably around the Twin Ports and Brainerd Lakes area. This MVFR to IFR fog is expected to dissipate shortly after sunrise. While this morning's fog will be quick to dissipate, a second round of fog will potentially move into far north-central MN this afternoon. More widespread fog development is likely (60% chance) tonight into early Sunday morning as additional moisture moves into the area. Light southerly winds this morning shift to the northwest late this evening into tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 401 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light winds and minimal wave action are forecast over the next 48 hours. There is a 50-60 percent chance of gale force easterly winds Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM as a strong winter storm moves into the Upper Midwest. Pending this forecast track continuing, a Gale Watch is likely to be needed over the next few days for mid next week. There is also a low 15% chance for storm force gusts along the North Shore Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.