textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon into early evening. Marginally severe hail will be possible in storms, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. A few funnel clouds will also be possible.

- Dry conditions arrive to end the week with temperatures increasing above normal heading into the weekend.

- Hot and humid conditions Monday with chances for thunderstorms into Tuesday. There are indications of strong to severe storms during this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Low pressure was located over northeastern Minnesota early this afternoon with an occluded/cold front extending into western Wisconsin, far southeastern Minnesota and Iowa. A warm front extended from this occluded/cold front from near Eau Claire to near Sheboygan. Widespread showers and thunderstorms were evident on radar across much of the Northland and were quickly increasing in coverage. Portions of northwestern Wisconsin did see some clearing this morning leading to increasing instability or around 1000-1500 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis. Shear remains rather limited with only around 20-25 knots of effective shear. Low-level lapse rates around 8-9C will help to lead to a marginal hail threat along with the decent instability in place. Given the lack of shear, any stronger storms will be short- lived. Storms across northeastern Minnesota are not expected to be strong or severe, but some small hail will be possible along with a few funnel clouds or a weak tornado given the low overhead and a Non-supercell Tornado Parameter of 1-3. Heavy downpours and slow moving storms may lead to some isolated hydro issues, mainly in urban areas. Storms will diminish this evening with areas of fog developing overnight, especially across northwest Wisconsin in downstream of Lake Superior.

Dry conditions will then take over for Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves through the Upper Midwest. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out along our western and southern borders as a weak shortwave and streamer of vorticity ride around the high. Temperatures will start to warm heading into the weekend as the high shifts southeast and sets up return flow across the Upper Midwest. Highs Friday will be in the 70s before warming into the 70s and 80s for the weekend. Moisture will be on the increase as well with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s away from Lake Superior by Sunday, leading to warm and humid conditions.

An upper ridge moves through this weekend and starts to shift east of the region on Monday. This will reinforce the warmer air and higher dewpoints with highs in the 80s and 90s Monday away from Lake Superior along with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. Heat headlines may be needed. Given the increasing heat and humidity, there will be chances for showers and storms starting Saturday night into Sunday with better chances Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front works through. There are indications that severe storms will be possible in parts of the Upper Midwest during this time period. Additionally, PWATs are forecast to rise into the 1.5-2" range ahead of this front, which would be above the 90th percentile for late June. As such, heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Widely isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen across the Northland early this afternoon as an area of low pressure sits overhead. Conditions range from VFR to IFR under the stronger storms due to rainfall. This activity is expected to persist through the afternoon and into early evening before diminishing overnight. Brief reductions in visibility will be possible should a shower or storm pass over an airfield. Ceilings have been a bit more steady state thus far, but will oscillate between broken and scattered at times. Heading into tonight, areas of fog are expected to develop along with low stratus. The highest chances for this are at DLH, HIB, and HYR. IFR conditions will be possible if fog develops. Visibilities are expected to improve to VFR Thursday morning, but MVFR ceilings may linger in spots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Winds will remain northeasterly at 5 to 15 knots across most of western Lake Superior this afternoon. Some stronger gusts to 20 to 25 knots will be possible along the North Shore from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect into this evening. High pressure builds in for tomorrow with light and variable winds at 10 knots or less. As the low shifts to the southeast on Friday, easterly winds of 10 to 15 knots will develop.

A few showers and storms will be possible this afternoon into this evening, but no strong or severe storms are expected. Brief, heavy downpours may lead to times of reduced visibility. Small hail and cloud-to-water lightning will also be possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Widespread showers and storms will persist this afternoon and early evening before diminishing. Rainfall amounts will vary greatly across the region, but locations that do see a storm pass overhead may receive a quick 0.50-0.75". Most areas will not see a wetting rainfall, however. Drier conditions then take over for Thursday and Friday, but increasing moisture is expected. This will help keep most areas above 40% for afternoon RH values, although localized areas may dip into the 30 to 40% range, mainly in the interior Arrowhead. Winds will remain under 15 mph both days. Warm conditions take hold into the weekend and early next week with increasing chances for showers and storms starting Saturday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140- 141.