textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog dissipates within a couple hours after sunrise this morning.

- Quiet weather with highs a few degrees above normal today.

- A more active weather pattern for this weekend through Monday with periods of scattered showers and storms.

- Sunday and Monday may be the next chances for strong to severe storms, though the severe weather signals are not significant.

UPDATE

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current Overnight - Friday:

A prime radiational cooling setup is forecast for the current overnight hours through early this morning as high pressure, calm to very light winds, and mostly clear skies lead to areas of fog and dense fog development that will then burn off within an hour or two after sunrise. The dense fog is not currently forecast to be widespread enough for a Dense Fog Advisory, but we will continue to monitor visibility trends and assess whether or not a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed towards early morning. Low temperatures towards sunrise bottom out in the 40s for most of the Northland not immediately near Lake Superior. Some of the typical cold spots in the Iron Range and far northern Minnesota could dip into the upper-30s.

Otherwise, expect another dry day on Friday under mostly sunny skies to start. Expect another warm late-summer day with high temperatures in the 70s to low 80s, warmest in the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin. As the high pressure begins to slide to the east, high-level cloud cover will be on the increase from the west from mid-afternoon onwards.

This Weekend:

A more active weather pattern develops for this weekend. Low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies over the High Plains today will push the nose of a low- level jet into primarily southern portions of the Northland, with weak mid- level shortwave energy and a weak warm/stationary front interacting to produce scattered rain shower and thunderstorm chances beginning late Friday night/early Saturday morning. The 00Z set of high-resolution model guidance still has some uncertainty regarding how far north the precipitation makes it into the Northland with a few models keeping the best precipitation chances in the early morning just to our south as there will be some drier low-level air that precipitation will initially have to deal with. Other models that do bring the Northland rain late tonight into Saturday keep the best precipitation chances mainly in the southern half of the CWA, primarily along and south of US-2. Our official forecast highlights 40-65% rain chances mainly along and south of US-2 through Saturday morning and then shifting into northwest Wisconsin in the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts east. Precipitation chances will be on the decrease from west to east into early evening, ending in northwest Wisconsin in the evening. With generally 30 kts or less of bulk shear and fairly limited instability overnight into Saturday, any thunderstorms that develop are not expected to be strong or severe. As for forecast rainfall amounts through Saturday evening, HREF 24-hour LPMM values show some pockets of 0.5-1" mainly in NW WI where thunderstorms would move overhead. It should be noted that forecast PWAT values of 1.5O-1.85" would allow for more efficient rainfall with any thunderstorms that do form. Otherwise, rain amounts will generally be 0.25" or less on a more scattered basis.

For daytime Sunday, the synoptic pattern is highlighted by flattened ridging aloft with some weak shortwave troughing energy moving through the ridge. At the surface, a low pressure system near the eastern SD/southwestern MN border looks to have a warm front across far southern Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin while a farther north low near the eastern ND/northwest Minnesota border may have a warm front draped across northern Minnesota or just north of the International Border. Depending on exactly where these two frontal features set up, portions of the Northland could see additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. The atmosphere could be conditionally conducive for afternoon/evening strong to severe thunderstorms (hail and wind gust threats) given moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, steep low-level lapse rates, and strong westerly bulk shear values of 35-45 kts. The caveat to this is whether or not the more subtle mid-level synoptic forcing for ascent will be enough to overcome what appears to be a fairly robust 700-800 mb capping inversion (CIN values of 200-300 J/kg). Given the uncertainty, have opted to keep precipitation chances on Sunday/Sunday evening near NBM values of 30-50% or less. Better rain/thunderstorm chances (50-75%) may hold off until Sunday night in far northern Minnesota in association with deeper troughing arriving from the west due to an upper-level low in the Canadian Prairies, as well as interaction with a surface warm front in the Northland vicinity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current Conditions/Friday:

An upper level low continues to churn over the northern Ontario keeping the region in northwest flow. At the surface we have high pressure that expands across Manitoba and through the Midwest. This combination will lead to mostly sunny skies with some diurnal cumulus building in during the afternoon. Overall, quiet weather conditions today with highs climbing into the 70s. Overnight, rapid radiational cooling may lead to areas of dense fog developing. If fog does develop it will quickly burn off after sunrise. Friday is also shaping up to be an inactive day. Surface high pressure begins to depart the region and we will see increasing cloud coverage moving in from the west late in the day. Expect highs to increase a few degrees from the previous day with a few spots getting into the low 80s.

Weekend:

The weather pattern turns active again for the weekend. Cross barrier flow over the Rockies will lead to a surface low pressure developing in the Northern Plains early Saturday morning. An increasing low level jet out ahead of this system may lead to some rain chances beginning early Saturday morning. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance still shows a high amount of variability in the QPF fields but leveraging the ensembles shows the best chances will be across our southern half of the CWA where the NBM is highlighting PoPs of 40-60%. Both the low pressure and low level jet weaken through the day, precipitation chances will persist but be on the downward trend.

Sunday looks to give us another dose of moisture. The GFS IVT would suggest that we should see an increase in available PWATs with contributions from the southern Pacific and possibly Baja. Early signals in the GEFs indicate this would put us near the 90th percentile of climatology. As this moisture overspreads the Northland we will have a few synoptic players to help generate some precipitation. However, placement and timing of key features remain in flux. The big picture looks to include a pair of surface lows moving over the Central and Northern Plains. The northernmost low may have a warm front draped across northern MN and promote some better rain chances. Strong to severe storm development remains questionable. Mid level flow will be strong enough to support some deep layer shear. There will also be seem steep mid level lapse rates in play leading to some favorable ingredients for large hail.

Early next week:

The weather pattern remains active as we head into the early portions of the work week. An upper level low moving across the Canadian Prairies will promote continued moisture advection across the area. Weather models depict several instances of impulses embedded in the flow aloft pushing through the region. There aren't any strong signals to really hone in on at this juncture but the chances to put more moisture into the soil will be most welcome, especially since portions of the CWA saw an expansion of the extreme drought status.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Patchy fog early this morning dissipates through 13-14Z, mainly affecting the BRD/INL/HIB terminals. Also, some MVFR to IFR stratus has moved in off of Lake Superior into the South Shore and DLH. Expect this to scatter out towards mid-morning. The rest of the TAF period following the fog and low stratus will be VFR conditions with light and variable winds. Increasing high clouds are expected this afternoon and evening. Some showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms move into central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin towards the very end of the current TAF period early Saturday morning. Have included PROB30 mentions during that time at BRD and HYR for now, but precipitation will have some drier low-level air to overcome first before precipitation would be able to reach the ground.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

East to northeast winds around 5-10 kts today and tonight. Will need to watch for potential of areas of dense fog in parts of the southwest arm and South Shore of Lake Superior early this morning. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory may be needed depending on how widespread the fog becomes. Northeast winds of 5-10 kt continue on Saturday, with occasional gusts to 15 kts in parts of the South Shore Saturday afternoon. Periodic rain and chances return on Saturday into Monday. No clear signals for severe storms just yet, but Sunday PM and Monday may have potential for strong to severe storms. Northeast winds increase on Sunday through Sunday evening, which may produce conditions hazardous to small craft and result in a need for a Small Craft Advisory.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Patchy dense fog this morning burns off shortly after sunrise. Surface high pressure through much of the day today will result in mostly sunny skies through early afternoon with increasing clouds late, light and variable winds, and rain-free conditions. Min RH this afternoon dips to 30-45%, lowest in northwest Wisconsin, particularly the Pine Barrens. RH recovers to above 90% tonight. Periodic scattered shower and thunderstorm chances return late Friday night/early Saturday through Monday. Not everyone will see rain, though higher dewpoints and moisture available with these systems could produce localized amounts of 0.5-1"+ where thunderstorms move through. Strong to severe storms signals are still a bit murky, with Sunday afternoon/evening and Monday as the best chances. Min RH values improve for Saturday through Monday with dewpoints in the 60s.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.