textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect this afternoon into the evening for the Minnesota Arrowhead due to gusty winds and low humidity.

- Thunderstorm chances have increased for Monday afternoon and evening across the Northland, with periodic rain chances continuing next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Isolated showers lingered across the Northland early this morning as an upper trough rotated through the Upper Midwest. This activity will diminish over the next few hours with dry conditions expected for the bulk of Sunday. The primary forecast concern for today continues to be the fire weather conditions across the Arrowhead. Have lowered RH values slightly with this update to drop areas in the Red Flag Warning to 25% RH values or lower. Winds will gust again to 20 to 30 mph out of the west to northwest today. These conditions could lead to the rapid spread of fires across portions of St. Louis and Lake counties today. Cloud cover may linger across Cook County which would keep RH values there slightly higher. If clouds are able to clear, RH values across Cook County will likely trend lower and the Red Flag Warning may need to be expanded as winds are already there. This is mainly for the lakeshore/south Cook zone as the remainder of Cook is already in due to being combined with Lake County. No significant changes were made to the remainder of the forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the rest of the day, expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with unseasonably cool temperatures only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s. We have bumped up the chances for precipitation this afternoon, utilizing coverage wording to reflect the isolated to scattered rain showers currently moving across the area. While it is raining out there in spots, the actual chances of any one location getting hit remain fairly small. Gusty west winds have also prompted a Small Craft Advisory for western Lake Superior through this afternoon. Showers will gradually taper off tonight as a cooler air mass settles over the region, dropping low temperatures into the 40s - maybe even into the 30s in the typical cool spots.

Sunday will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer temperatures, but the main story will be the critical fire weather conditions. We have dropped relative humidity values below standard guidance for Sunday afternoon, which combined with gusty northwest winds to 30 mph, has necessitated the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the Minnesota Arrowhead region. While lingering cloud cover may initially slow the drying process, clearing skies from the west should put areas like Lake and St. Louis counties solidly in the threat area. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the cloud cover retreat as an upper low spins to our northeast. If we do get the clearing, any fires that develop will spread rapidly, so outdoor burning is highly discouraged. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the Northland.

As we head into the new work week, Monday will begin with sunshine before our next weather system approaches. We have increased the chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening across the area as a quick moving disturbance drops down from Canada. While severe weather is not anticipated at this time, these storms could produce localized heavy downpours and lightning. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate, reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations.

The overall weather pattern through the middle and end of next week will be characterized by continuous northwest flow aloft, resulting in multiple quick moving systems passing through the region. This will bring periodic off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The most widespread precipitation currently looks to target the Wednesday timeframe as a slightly stronger wave moves through the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s.

By late Thursday into Friday, the broad upper level ridging currently stationed over the western United States may begin to drift eastward. This shift would potentially transition our winds to a more southerly direction, introducing a warm air advection pattern. As a result, we could see a return to more typical, warmer summertime weather and drier conditions heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Conditions range from VFR to IFR across the Northland early this morning as the region remains under the influence of an upper low. Spotty showers will continue to decrease in coverage through the early morning hours as drier air moves in. Ceilings are expected to slowly rise to VFR by sunrise and remain VFR through the remainder of the period. Gusty winds will then be the main forecast concern for the daylight hours Sunday with westerly to northwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Breezy westerly winds will again be in place today with gusts to 20 to 25 knots, mainly along the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the Twin Ports and the North Shore. Winds will diminish late this afternoon and early evening before increasing again Monday morning from the southwest. Gusts to 20 knots are expected with isolated higher gusts to 25 knots near Grand Portage and in the Twin Ports. Another round of advisories may be required. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through Monday afternoon into Monday night, but no strong or severe storms are currently expected. Variable winds are then expected for Tuesday at 5 to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Dry and breezy conditions across the Minnesota Arrowhead will lead to critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 20 to 25% range across portions of St. Louis and Lake counties with westerly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these areas. Cloud cover may linger across Cook County, but if skies clear quicker than expected, RH values there will likely trend lower and the warning may need to be expanded. RH values elsewhere will be in the 25 to 30% range with breezy west winds to around 25 mph. Winds look a bit lighter for Monday with chances for showers and thunderstorms for the afternoon and overnight hours. How quick this activity arrives may play a role in how low RH values go during the afternoon. If activity is slower to arrive than currently expected, RH values across northeastern Minnesota will likely trend lower than forecast.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ011-012-019-020. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145.