textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The next best chance for appreciable light snow accumulations is Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a half to two inches possible across the Northland.

- Blustery northwest winds with gusts of 20-35 mph possible Wednesday.

- Colder temperatures continue through the work week with intermittent chances of snow with weak clipper systems. The coldest night is expected to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning with widespread lows well below zero.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Stratus clouds are lingering over the area early this morning as a ridge of high pressure slowly pushes east across the area through today. While this initial mass of clouds is lifting out and allowing a big clear area over central Minnesota, another wave of clouds has developed over western MN and eastern South Dakota which will spread northeast today and bring the stratus back in over the course of the day today. Have made the cloud forecast on the pessimistic side based on the time of year with the low sun angle, making it harder to mix out low stratus. We may get some flurries out of these, but do not expect any significant accumulations.

Our next chance for snow is Tuesday night into Wednesday as a clipper slides across the area. There is not a lot of moisture associated with this wave, as the best PWAT values are still blocked by a large ridge axis over the lower mississippi river valley. This is not a terribly impressive system, with a fairly progressive motion and the forcing does not appear to be very strong. However, it should manage to bring us at least a little snow, with most areas getting between a dusting and an inch or two across the Northland by Wednesday morning. The higher values would be along the south shore where lake effects enhance the totals. Gusty north west winds can be expected behind this system on Wednesday with strong cold air advection behind it, a fairly tight pressure gradient and winds aloft of 30 to 40 knots.

The rest of the work week into next weekend will remain somewhat active, with broad upper level troughing over the Upper Midwest region which will allow a series of shortwaves to pass across the Northland. These will bring periodic chances for snow through the week, though there is poor agreement between models leading to relatively low confidence. None of these systems look terribly impactful at this time, bringing relatively light snowfall accumulations. We are also looking at near to below normal temperatures for all of next week and next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A broad area of MVFR stratus lingering over the Northland this morning along with another area of stratus over central Minnesota will slowly slide northeast through the course of the day today. A few flurries may fall, but no lowered visibilities are expected. The stratus may slowly lift during the day today, but then should lower once again after sunset. Ceilings should begin to lower to IFR after 00z, and perhaps as far as KHIB, KDLH, and KHYR around 06z. Visibilities should stay VFR through the period. Light southwest winds overnight will increase during the daytime, then diminishing again after 02z.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 346 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Southwest winds this morning will gradually increase through today before diminishing once again tonight. These winds should top out in the 25 to 30 knot range, but mainly out in the open waters, but this is still enough to cause hazardous conditions and have maintained the Small Craft Advisories we have out for most of western Lake Superior for today into this evening. Wind speeds increase once again Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a clipper which moves across the area Tuesday night. Behind this clipper, winds will veer into the west and then northwest, and become rather gusty through Wednesday and Wednesday night. We may need Small Craft Advisories beginning Tuesday afternoon and evening, and again Wednesday and Wednesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>143-146>148-150.