textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoky conditions continue, but will thin for some of Friday. This will allow for hot temperatures once again in our southern areas.

- Two rounds of showers and storms are expected Friday. Severe weather most likely in the afternoon/evening. A quarter to half inch of rain possible where rain falls

- Smoky conditions return over the weekend and another system will move through early next week with more chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

For the rest of the day, unseasonably warm and smoky conditions will persist across the Northland. Thick wildfire smoke will continue to limit visibilities. While previous forecasts highlighted gusty winds over Lake Superior, observations show winds have remained under ten knots. As a result, the active Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory have been cancelled. As we head into tonight, skies will remain mostly cloudy with smoke lingering.

During the early morning on Friday, warm and moist air moving into the region will trigger an initial round of showers and storms. This convective activity will feature modest instability of 1000 to 1500 J/kg and wind shear of 25 to 30 knots. Dry low- level air will restrict rainfall totals to a tenth or two of an inch. These morning storms will likely weaken, allowing southwest winds to develop and push the thickest smoke northeastward, bringing clearer skies to southern counties. This will lead hot temperatures to build across the south, where heat headlines may be needed as heat index values climb into the 90s and approach 100. By late afternoon, a cold front moving southeastward will erode the capping inversion aloft. This will trigger a second, more potent round of severe thunderstorms. Powered by substantial instability of 1500 to 2500 J/kg and intense deep-layer shear of 40 to 50 knots, these storms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. More moisture will be available, yielding rainfall totals of a few tenths of an inch. Unfortunately, these beneficial rains will track south and east of the active wildfires in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness Friday evening.

Following the cold fronts departure, high pressure builds in, bringing dry and sunny conditions for Saturday. However, post-frontal northwesterly winds will likely pull thick wildfire smoke back into the Northland, which may keep high temperatures cooler than currently forecast. Sunday will start warm and mostly sunny, with temperatures rising into the 80s to near 90 degrees as winds shift back to the southwest. Relative humidity levels will drop into the lower 30 percent range, elevating fire weather concerns. By Sunday evening, cloud cover will increase ahead of our next major weather system.

A strong cold front is projected to sweep through the region late Sunday night into Monday, bringing a threat of severe storms and much-needed precipitation. The primary concern with this system will be a sharp wind shift from southwest to northwest on Monday, with winds increasing to 30 miles per hour and potentially higher as the event nears. These strong, gusty winds could create near-critical fire weather conditions as they sweep across the Northland. High temperatures will drop back into the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing comfortable, seasonable weather and a welcome reprieve from the heat. Dry and clear conditions are expected to round out the middle of the week as high pressure takes control once again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Smoke, smoke, and more smoke. IFR to LIFR visibilities will continue where smoke lingers for the majority of the TAF period. An area of showers and storms will move through tonight into Friday across INL and possibly HIB, where visibilities could improve with rainfall for a period. Friday morning flow will shift out of the southwest and clearing of smoke is possible, especially at BRD and HYR, but smoke may still linger at DLH, HIB, and INL according to latest smoke trajectory models.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Winds over western Lake Superior have remained under 10 knots this afternoon. Due to these light winds, the active Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement have been cancelled. However, a Dense Smoke Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore waters until 10 AM Friday, as widespread wildfire smoke continues to reduce visibilities to 1 to 3 nautical miles. Northeast winds tonight will shift to the southwest on Friday, and smoke may thin for a good portions of the day. Showers and storms are possible over Lake Superior Friday morning and again in the afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong to severe with gale force winds and large hail.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Dry conditions will continue this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values of 35 to 50 percent. Stronger lake breeze winds of 15 to 20 miles per hour will shift inland late this afternoon, strengthening easterly winds. Wildfire smoke will continue to linger through tonight. On Friday, warm temperatures and southwest winds will build, but minimum relative humidity will recover to 40 to 60 percent as moist air moves in from the southwest. Scattered showers and storms are expected on Friday, with a severe threat possible, especially in the afternoon. On Sunday, relative humidity will drop back into the low 30 percent range with southwest winds up to 15 mph. A strong cold front on Monday will shift winds to the northwest and increase wind speeds to 30 miles per hour with relative humidity once again ranging 35 to 25 percent, creating near- critical fire weather.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144- 145.