textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog, locally dense, is occurring this morning along with drizzle and scattered rain showers. Expect fog to gradually dissipate by the afternoon, with rain also tapering off later today.

- A large area of low pressure is expected to impact the Upper Midwest early this upcoming week. Widespread significant rainfall amounts of at least 1" are forecast over a period from Monday through Wednesday.

- A drier pattern with cooler temperatures is favored to develop in the latter half of the week into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Patchy fog, drizzle, and scattered showers are occurring early this morning as a warm front continues to lift north into the CWA. As diurnal heating begins today and the warm front continues to move north, fog is anticipated to slowly clear late this morning into the early afternoon. Once fog clears, a few breaks in the clouds will be occurring this afternoon as drier air filters in. Expect warm high temps this afternoon in the low to mid 60s for most of the region.

Widespread rain remains in the forecast on Monday through Wednesday as a deep trough moves through the Intermountain West today and propagates a large low pressure system into the central CONUS early this upcoming week. Anomalous amounts of moisture remain the highlight with this early week system, as deep Gulf moisture advection into the CWA occurs in conjunction with a brief Pineapple Express atmospheric river. The ECMWF EFI table continues to show that QPF is forecast to be in the 90th percentile of climatology.

In terms of QPF amounts, the latest NBM run still has a 80% or greater chance for 1" of rain from Monday morning through Tuesday night. Higher amounts are trending similar since the previous update, with higher QPF amounts of 2" or greater most likely (50-75% chance) to occur in north-central MN. Higher amounts of QPF are also forecast along the terrain ridge of the North Shore as southeast winds on Monday result in orographic enhancement. Expect rain to continue on Wednesday, although the heaviest rainfall rates are expected to be on Monday afternoon and evening.

Beyond the early week system, the forecast remains on track with a drier pattern moving in for the latter half of the week into next weekend. Please see the previous discussion for more details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers are currently moving north throughout the Northland, though they are still fighting some dry air. Scattered showers will continue into this evening and tonight as Trick or Treaters head out. While there may be a shower here and there, Trick or Treaters will not have to worry about freezing temperatures, as warm air advection will keep temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s with lower 40s near Lake Superior. Overall rainfall amounts for the rest of the day and overnight will stay light at a tenth of an inch or less, though patchy fog will likely develop across the area late tonight where rain falls. Fog is most likely to form where rain falls throughout the day today.

On Sunday, any lingering morning drizzle and patchy fog will burn off as a warm front lifts north into Ontario. A brief period of partial clearing will allow mild air to spread over our region, sending afternoon highs into the lower to middle 60s for many inland locations. Skies will turn mostly cloudy again late Sunday night as the next storm system gathers over the Plains.

Widespread rain showers are still expected Monday into Tuesday. A strong plume of moisture from the Gulf and an atmospheric river will bring a soaking rainfall across the area, as precipitable water values are near the climatological maximum for this time of year across the Northland. Quick changes in pressure ahead of the system will lead to windy conditions with the rain, leading to winds of 20-30 mph Monday daytime. Isolated embedded storms are possible Tuesday as instability is added to the mix. Severe weather is not anticipated, but also cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Showers will remain likely Tuesday night into Wednesday as an upper low dropping out of the Canadian Prairies interacts with the system over the Upper Midwest. Rain will gradually taper off from west to east through Wednesday afternoon as the center of low pressure slowly departs into the Great Lakes, leaving damp and cloudy conditions across the region. Most of the area has at least an 80% chance for an inch or more of rain. However, chances for 2 inches or higher have decreased slightly, and expected totals have decreased slightly as well. These probabilities will be monitored of how they adjust as the event nears.

High pressure will build into the Northland for Thursday and Friday, bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail for the end of the week, though mostly cloudy skies will linger. Cooler air filtering in behind the departing system will return temperatures to seasonal norms, with highs retreating into the 40s and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fog is finally lifting for this afternoon, but low stratus off Lake Superior tonight is expected to cause the fog to redevelop at DLH with lower confidence that it could reach HIB as well. Ceilings are expected to lower again tonight as the system that will bring moderate rain showers moves into the area. MVFR to IFR visibilities are possible with the heaviest rainfall. Southeast winds will also increase with the approach of the system Monday morning as gusts up to 25 kts are expected.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Generally quiet marine conditions will persist across Western Lake Superior through tonight with waves of 1 foot or less and winds generally under 10 knots. While winds and waves will be relatively benign, patchy fog may reduce visibility this evening into tonight, especially along the North Shore. Winds will increase early this upcoming week as a large area of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Breezy northeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots are briefly in the forecast on Monday afternoon and evening, especially around the Twin Ports. This may necessitate a Small Craft Advisory, although there is some uncertainty at this time on the degree of stable conditions that could be in place on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 339 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will be minimal today through at least Wednesday as a wet pattern settles over the area and min RH remains elevated. Widespread rain is expected to occur Monday through Wednesday, with 1" or greater of total rainfall being extremely likely (80-97% chance), with the lowest potential being in far north- central MN near the International Border. Rainfall amounts of 2" or greater are likely (50-75% chance) around the Brainerd Lakes as well as in the higher elevations of the North Shore terrain ridge. Winds today through Monday night will generally be from the south to southeast, shifting to the north-northwest on Tuesday as low pressure moves downstream and a cold front sweeps through.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142>145.