textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A very chilly morning with wind chills in the twenties and teens.

- Gusty winds today leading to potentially elevated fire weather concerns. - Gradual warming trend into and through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Very chilly start to the weekend as high pressure dominates the Midwest. Clear skies and a breezy southwest winds will see wind chills in the twenties and teens. An abundances of sunshine combined with some weak warm air advection will see these temperatures quickly recover back into the 50s with a few spots jumping back into the 60s. Fire weather concerns continue to remain questionable, the gusty winds will definitely be in place across the region but how much the Northland dries out is the main dilemma. Model soundings highlight a warm nose aloft with quite a bit of dry air above this inversion. If we manage to warm up drastically this afternoon we could see some deeper mixing and drier conditions that would warrant some elevate fire weather concerns.

The pattern shifts to feature no precipitation and warming Sunday onward. Continued breezy southwest winds Sunday morning areawide will decrease in speed from northwest to southeast during the afternoon. High temperatures will continue their upward climb, and we will be back into the mid 60s for the next work week with predominantly dry weather dominating the Northland. The exception will be a couple of days of lake breezes keeping shoreline areas right at normal for mid-October.

Heading deeper into the next work week, the predominantly quiet and unseasonably mild weather remains locked in as an upper-level ridge anchors itself over the central portion of the Continent and two coastal low pressure systems remain over the Mid-Atlantic and California/Baja region setting up a omega blocking pattern. There are very low- end, 10 to 20 percent, chances of light rain late next work week as a ripple moving through the broad and warm upper- level ridge may occur. However, there is very low confidence on this scenario at this time, and dry conditions remain heavily favored.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Satellite shows a few mid and upper level clouds crossing this morning from the northwest, skies are expected to clear out later this morning. Aloft there is a corridor of strong winds moving in from the north. These winds will induce some low level wind shear through the morning hours before we mix out and gusty winds spread across the surface. As the inversion sets up again this evening expect another dose or low level wind shear.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

A period of strong southwest winds will settle over the Lake this morning and persist through the weekend. Largely expecting speeds to be around 20 to 25 kts with gusts around 35 kts at times. A few gales are possible later this morning over portions of the Outer Apostle Islands, the stronger winds look to reside over the Open Waters. Given the limited spacial and time extent we will not issue a Gale Warning. There is potential for winds to increase tonight across portions of the South Shore and Grand Marais to Grand Portage, a Gale Warning may be needed from the overnight hours into Sunday afternoon. Additionally, expect wave heights to be highest along the North Shore measuring at 6 to 9 ft for today and increasing to 8-11 ft and occasionally upwards of 14 ft tonight.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Gusty southwest winds of 25-30 mph will encompass the region today. The main questions is how dry will the area get. Most of the guidance suggests that we will stay above 35-40%. However, model soundings show quite a bit of dry air aloft capped by a warm nose. With the abundance of sunshine today it seems reasonable that we would get some deeper mixing than what some of the guidance is suggesting. We have opted to lower Min Rhs down to 30-35%. I don't think it would be unreasonable to see some pockets of 25%. especially over the Brainerd Lakes area. For now, no fire weather headlines.

Minimal fire weather concerns through the remainder of the forecast. No strong signals for precipitation but winds and RHs are below the fire weather thresholds.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-141>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140.