textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog this morning will erode by mid morning

- Above average temperatures continue today through Saturday with highs in the 60s and 70s. The exception with be along Lake Superior where onshore flow will keep highs in the 50s and 60s.

- Light rain chances return late Friday and linger through Saturday. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible but no severe weather.

- More seasonable temperatures return Sunday and through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Low stratus is spreading across NW WI and south of the the Twin Ports this morning and could leak its way west towards Aitkin. Under this cloud deck there have been reports of fog and a dense fog advisory may be needed later. Expect fog and cloud cover to erode through the latter morning hours giving way to another warm day with highs in the 60s and 70s. The exception to this will be areas along the Lake Superior where onshore flow will keep the temps closer to the mid 50s to low 60s. Another round of fog will be possible tonight.

Friday:

A warm front will be lifting across the region Friday afternoon and evening. Isentropic lift associated with the boundary will lead to some scattered showers populating across our western counties. Overall, light rain expected with the boundary passage with a rumble of thunder possible.

Saturday:

On Saturday, a mature low pressure will be sliding across Manitoba. It's associated cold front will be cruising across the Northland providing another dose of light rain across the region. MUCAPE does increase a bit along the boundary as upper levels cool and mid level lapse rates increase to 7C/km. This could lead to some isolated storms at times but not expecting anything severe. Rain chances will quickly taper off west to east through Saturday night as the boundary moves into Central WI. Additionally, out ahead of this boundary through the day the strong southerly flow will lead to widespread 70s, 15-20F above normal for this time of year.

Sunday into early next week:

A return to more seasonable temperatures as surface high pressure settles in behind the exiting cold front. Highs will be in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows dropping to below freezing. Heading into the work week could see another uptick in activity but confidence remains low at this juncture. The 00Z suite of guidance would suggest that a pair of upper level lows could impact the region as early as Sunday night. The first low of concern is ejecting out of the Central Rockies but will have to fight through the dry and cool air mass over the Northland. The overall trend has been shifting this system further south over the past 4 runs with only the Brainerd Lakes over into NW WI now seeing a 20-40% chance of rain into Monday morning. Better chances may arrive at the mid week point when an upper level trough bring better synoptic forcing. However, location and timing remain highly contested amongst current suite of guidance.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

LIFR/VLIFR stratus has been hugging the South Shore through much of the night but is starting to see some northward expansion that will impact DLH. Areas of fog are also present this morning impacting several terminals. Both fog and the IFR stratus deck are expected to erode by late morning with light southerly winds and sunny skies prevailing through the day. This evening onshore flow looks more prominent leading to another round of low stratus and fog emanating from Lake Superior and likely to impact DLH and possibly HIB.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Northeast winds today around 10 to 15 knots with some strong gusts upwards of 20 knots expected at the head of the Lake. Satellite shows low stratus developing along the South Shore that could end up producing fog. A marine dense fog may be needed. Gusty south winds will are expected to return late Friday and may lead to hazardous conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 258 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

No fire weather concerns at this time. Light winds today with Min RHs staying above 30%. Winds increase out of the south tomorrow as a warm front moves through the region bringing light rain late in the day. Continued chances for rain into Saturday as a cold front sweeps across the region. Conditions will dry out on Sunday behind the cold front but winds at the moment don't look strong enough to warrant fire weather headline concerns.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for LSZ121-147.