textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of light rain moves through the Northland today before ending early Sunday morning in the Arrowhead and north- central Wisconsin. The highest rain amounts up to half of an inch are expected in north-central Minnesota.

- A more widespread soaking rainfall is forecast Monday night through Tuesday.

- Next frost and freeze potential is next next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Early this morning, a broad upper-level ridge sits over the region while a short-wave trough approaches from the west. Moisture is advecting into north-central Minnesota this morning ahead of that incoming short-wave. The combination of the frontal forcing and sufficient moisture in place later this morning creates a day of light to moderate rainfall amounts for north-central Minnesota. As this system pushes eastward, it will provide light rainfall for northeast Minnesota this evening and early overnight. Meanwhile, very little rainfall is expected for the eastern Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, with all precipitation ending last Sunday morning. Gusty southeast winds will mix down today to create gusts of 25 mph for the Brainerd Lakes to Koochiching County region. Expect high temperatures today to only peak around 60 F for the Brainerd Lakes given that earlier onset of precipitation, meanwhile eastward highs will range from the lower 60s in the west to the low 70s in northwest Wisconsin. Northeast winds over Lake Superior will funnel into the Twin Ports, bringing dangerous rip currents to area beaches by this afternoon. Another Beach Hazards Statement is in effect today for the Lake Superior beaches in the Twin Ports.

Early Sunday morning, the rain will depart the eastern Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as the short-wave trough lifts into Ontario. The rest of the Northland will see skies gradually clear from west to east. Temperatures will generally range from the middle 60s to near 70 degrees. Areas in the east may remain a bit cooler due to the lingering morning clouds and earlier rain showers. Winds will weaken and shift to the south and southwest throughout the day.

The next round of even more widespready moderate rainfall is forecast late Monday into Tuesday. An upper-level deep Western CONUS trough will aid in moisture advection from the eastern Pacific into the Upper Midwest and interact with a shortwave moving through the southern Canadian Plains. This will set the stage for a widespread, soaking rainfall across the Northland starting late Monday night and continuing through much of Tuesday. Heaviest rainfall amounts are currently forecast for mainly northern Minnesota for this early next week rainfall, but northwest Wisconsin still has a 60-80% chance for a light to moderate rainfall event. Rumbles of thunder within the widespread wetting rainfall cannot be ruled out either, but discrete strong thunderstorms are not expected.

On Wednesday, the deepened Canadian shortwave will move eastward and place more zonal flow over the Upper Midwest. This will create a short-lived increase in high temperatures on warmer air advection back over northern Minnesota, still cooler in northwest Wisconsin, for Wednesday daytime. By Thursday, a cold front moves through the Upper Midwest to Manitoba/northwest Ontario region. Expect gusty westerly winds Thursday and a quick return to more fall-like temperatures in the lower-60s to end the upcoming work week. The next frost and freeze potential returns next weekend as the cooler, but more normal for the season, airmass sets up under strong high pressure.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Morning dense fog in the Twin Ports and parts of northwest Wisconsin dissipates 13-15Z today. A band of rainfall moves into north-central Minnesota later this morning after 14Z and slowly lifts northeastward. Terminals in northeast Minesota see VFR at least through 21Z today...much later towards 03Z Sunday into northwest Wisconsin. Expect breezy southeast winds 8-15 knots today gusting 15-25 knots and remaining mixed out for parts of the region even post-sunset this evening. After the rain ends tonight and where the winds become calm to less than 5 knots and fog sets up in the areas with the most rainfall observed today....especially northern Minnesota.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 332 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Light northeast winds early this morning will strengthen to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots by this afternoon at the head of the lake, lesser wind speeds elsewhere. These conditions in the southwest arm are forecast to build waves to 2 to 3 feet near the Twin Ports. Winds will veer to the south and southwest tonight into Sunday, remaining at 10 knots or less with waves subsiding to 1 foot or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Gusty southeast winds are expected today, ranging from 8 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph, especially over central and north-central Minnesota. A wetting rainfall will spread across north-cental Minnesota today and then eastward, but with only light and non-wetting amounts, this evening and overnight. Expect a stark gradient in relative humidity today where northwest Wisconsin may dip into the upper-30% and the Brainerd Lakes are closer to the 80-90% range. Winds will diminish and shift to the south and southwest for Sunday with afternoon relative humidity values areawide becoming 50 to 70 percent. Most districts could see a wetting rainfall Monday night into Tuesday, but still highest amounts for north-central Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for MNZ037. Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...None.