textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain and snow showers along the South Shore through tonight as northerly/northeasterly flow off Lake Superior continues. Precip will trend toward snow this evening. Accumulations will be very light.

- Dry conditions take over for the weekend and into next week with mild temperatures.

- Next chance for widespread precipitation will be mid next week as a cold air mass makes its way south from Canada. Amounts appear light as of this evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Clouds are becoming more scattered this afternoon as the low pressure departs to the east and high pressure moves in. Northeasterly flow over Lake Superior is leading to some light radar returns that could be dropping rain and snow at the surface along the South Shore. This activity will slowly continue east as the low moves away from the area, with any accumulations remaining very light. Heading into tonight, stratus is expected to fill back in across the Northland due to lingering low level moisture and decreasing temperatures.

Warm air advection returns to the region on Friday on the back side of the departing high pressure system. Low level stability leftover from Thursday will linger into Friday. Depending on how well the cloud cover can clear and mix out throughout the day, we may see mixing into very dry air aloft. This will bring relative humidity values down throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will also trend warmer than normal to close out the work week.

Moving into the weekend, a dry system will move through the area on Friday night. Moisture associated with this shortwave is fairly minimal, mainly resulting in increased cloud cover as opposed to any rainfall. A cold front will then sweep through the region early Saturday morning, keeping temperatures cooler. Despite the frontal passage, conditions will remain completely dry across the region.

The slightly cooler air will be short-lived, as a mild and warm air mass quickly returns to the area by early next week. The pattern remains largely dry through the middle of the week with no significant precipitation chances on the horizon. Global models keep the primary storm track situated well to our north or focused on the coasts, allowing our local area to enjoy quiet weather and above normal temperatures through the extended period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Subsidence associated with high pressure over northern Minnesota and northwest Ontario was able to erode the thin cloud layer over northeast Minnesota this afternoon. HYR and much of northwest Wisconsin remain under stratus with light rain/snow showers. The showers will continue through this evening and will trend toward all snow with time. Expect clear skies through tonight over northeast Minnesota. Diurnal cumulus should develop Friday in response to daytime heating beneath a cool airmass. Expect MVFR cloud bases once Cu develop.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Strong northerly to northeasterly winds continue across western Lake Superior this afternoon, supporting a Gale Warning along the North Shore and Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. Waves of 4 to 8 feet remain possible before winds begin to ease tonight as high pressure builds in. The Small Craft Advisories will drop off sequentially through early Friday morning. Light and variable winds on Friday will eventually become southwesterly heading into the weekend. More conditions hazardous to small craft will return later on Saturday as those southwest winds increase and waves build on the far North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

North winds gusting 20 to 25 mph will gradually diminish tonight and stratus clouds are expected to fill back in. For Friday, depending on efficiency of mixing throughout the day, we could see clearing skies that may allow mixing down of very dry air aloft towards the surface. This could bring relative humidity values down throughout the day, though minimums are expected to remain at or above 35 percent. If mixing does not become as efficient as expected, RH is likely to remain above 50%. Southwest winds will develop Friday afternoon around 5 to 10 mph. A dry cold front crosses Saturday evening, keeping conditions dry into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 141>145. Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ146>148-150.