textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Some areas of fog this morning. Better chance for some widespread fog across the region tonight into tomorrow morning.

- Very warm and mainly dry weather pattern through Monday.

- There is potential for a more robust system to move in late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a mix of freezing rain and/or rain as well as snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Current Conditions/Tonight:

A weak low pressure is sliding across Ontario this morning with ridging and surface high pressure filling in behind. Low level warm advection is ramping up with above freezing 850mb temps being ushered in from the west on 20 kt winds. The combination of warm air advection over the snow pack is leading to fog developing in the Red River Valley. Model guidance suggests that this fog may move into northern MN later this morning as well as have several other pockets develop. This seems reasonable given the current satellite trends. If fog does manage to work its way into our region it will likely linger through 10AM before dry air mixes it out.

Under mostly sunny skies and high pressure we will see temperatures soar into the upper 30s and low 40s today. Tonight looks to be a better set up for more widespread fog potential. The added moisture from melting of the snowpack will get trapped under a steep inversion as the sunsets. This fog blanket may take a little longer to erode on Saturday then what we will experience today.

Weekend through early next week:

Weather conditions remain quiet and warm through the period with highs in the low 40s and overnight lows in the 20s. A low pressure system cruising across Manitoba into Ontario late Sunday into Monday could brush the International Border with some light snow. However, the low currently looks far enough north that the chances of seeing much with it are low. Probability of seeing snow is less then 20%.

Mid Week Storm:

Late Tuesday into Wednesday we see a break in the mundane pattern with a potential low ejecting out of the Northern Rockies. Both the GEFS and the EPS have a cluster of lows leading into greater confidence of a system developing. However, timing and placement remain in disagreement between the two ensemble families. GEFS has fairly good clustering with taking the low through southern MN but the Euro has a slower solution with a more bimodal distribution through either the Northern Plains or the Central Plains. Placement will be absolutely crucial to the forecast as we will still be contending with some warm air aloft associated with the systems warm front. This delineation will make a break the precipitation types and impactful snow potential. Regardless of the track the system should have a large pool of moisture to work with. Integrated water vapor transport from the GFS suggests that it may tap into both the Gulf and an atmospheric river impacting Baja. The GEFS PWATs are currently near the max of climatology. Snow character will largely be determined by the aforementioned warm front but if we are dealing with any temperatures around freezing then we will be leaning towards the wet and heavy type of snow. Probabilities with this forecast package have trended slightly up for snowfall generation given some of the colder solutions. Chances for 4" have increase to 50%, up from 20% 24 hours ago. The spread in solutions however still remain high at this time with the difference between the 25th and 75th percentile amounts ranging from 5-10". A fair bit of uncertainty to wade through in the coming days, but keep an eye on the forecast as low pressure systems firing out of the Rockies usually mean someones in for some impactful weather in the Midwest.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Difficult forecast this morning. Largely VFR conditions across the region to start things off. However, a slowly growing fog bank from the Red River Valley continues its slow march east with impacts already being seen at INL and likely to impact BRD as well. I'm not confident the fog will make it all the way to HIB/DLH but may still see some low clouds moving overhead. Fog will be slow to leave INL/BRD and there is an IFR stratus deck surging south across Canada that is not being picked up on model guidance. Placing a tracker on this cloud deck has it reaching INL around 17Z and should it hold together, 21Z for HIB. However, I don't currently anticipate it making it to HIB. Later this evening, more widespread fog conditions seem likely given the melting snowpack and cooling temperatures.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

West winds of 5 to 10 kts today with some gusty winds upwards of 20 kts along the North Shore through the late afternoon. Afterwards benign conditions will persist over the next 48 hours as high pressure moves through.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MNZ010. WI...None. MARINE...None.