textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few rain showers and potentially an isolated non-severe thunderstorm this afternoon in northwest Wisconsin.

- Near-normal temperatures for August are expected through this week.

- There are chances for rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms about every other day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

For the rest of the day, mainly widely scattered rain showers and possibly (10-20% chance only) an isolated non-severe thunderstorm are forecast this afternoon for inland northwest Wisconsin. The main hazard if any non-severe storm could come to be would be a quick burst of localized heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning. Meanwhile, smoke aloft departs slowly to the southeast with some blue skies returning into this afternoon across the Northland. Quiet conditions take over tonight as temperatures dip slightly below normal under light winds. However, the next round of smoke aloft moves in tonight and sets up for Monday.

This incoming smoke layer will be creating sky cover for areas south of US Highway 2 throughout the day on Monday. Aside from the hazy skies, Monday will feature pleasant conditions with near-normal daytime high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area. Humidity levels will drop a bit, creating a comfortable feel for mid-August. Light variable winds in the morning will eventually turn toward the west and northwest during the afternoon hours.

Heading into the rest of the week, a persistent northwest flow aloft continues as a stalled frontal boundary to our south keeps us on the cooler side. This northwest flow continues to create near- normal daytime high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s, and slightly below normal low temperatures each night falling into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Within this northwest flow will be weak and small-scale disturbances helping create the off-and-on mainly rain shower with embedded non-severe thunderstorm chances every 36 to 48 hours. Any showers and storms would likely be very localized and short-lived in nature from this setup of shear, moisture and instability-limited environmental progs in longer-range ensemble guidance.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

A Diurnal cumulus field is building first in far northern Minnesota and is forecast to move southward this afternoon and increase in coverage. Expect a few rain showers and potentially an isolated non-severe this afternoon in northwest Wisconsin. There is very low confidence on impacting any terminals though given the weakly forced diurnal nature of these showers. Have placed a Vicinity Showers mention in the Hayward TAF though with this issuance. Tonight, there are medium confidence signals for IFR to LIFR fog so TEMPOs were used to place even lower categories into the Hayward and Hibbing TAFs. Light winds this TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Winds across western Lake Superior will remain light for the rest of the day and tonight, generally out of the northeast to southwest at 5 to 10 knots. Waves will remain at 1 foot or less through tonight. On Monday, west winds will shift to the southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots, with afternoon gusts up to 25 knots possible, especially north of Taconite Harbor along the far North Shore. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in time for the Grand Marais to Grand Portage zone Monday afternoon and early evening. Winds will diminish again by Monday night, becoming northwest at 5 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Isolated rain showers this afternoon in inland northwest Wisconsin may bring localized rainfall. Otherwise, northwest winds around 5 mph are expected with minimum relative humidity values dropping to between upper-30 to 50 percent range this afternoon. Monday will be slightly drier with relative humidity dropping to between 35 and 45 percent, paired with west to northwest winds around 5 to 10 mph. Periodic non-severe thunderstorm chances return every 36 to 48 hours this week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.