textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple rounds of rain expected this workweek, the first round today into Tuesday and another round Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- There is the potential for some very light snow to mix in tonight into Tuesday morning from north-central MN into far northern Arrowhead. Accumulations are expected to be around 0.1" to none on grassy surfaces.

- Near-normal temperatures through Tuesday before warming back above normal into the 50s and 60s for most locations for the remainder of this week and upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Scattered light rain showers are continuing early this morning as an area of weak isentropic ascent occurs across the southern CWA. These rain showers have largely remained confined along and south of a line from Brainerd to Moose Lake and farther east to Mellen. To the north of these showers, dry air remains in place as high pressure continues to build over the northern Plains. CAMs continue to suggest that these southern CWA rain showers will continue through tonight, ending around sunrise.

There were no major forecast changes made early this morning. Low pressure is still expected to arrive late this evening and move through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday as a negatively-tilted shortwave trough propagates north-northeast from the Four Corners region into the Midwest. Maintained a trace of snow accumulation in the forecast on Tuesday morning, as the precipitation associated with the warm front and deformation zone will be arriving around peak diurnal cooling. Confidence in a rain/snow mix to light snow showers on early Tuesday morning is highest in north-central MN and the far northern Arrowhead where low temps will likely be the coldest in the upper 20s. Expect any snow that falls to quickly melt as high temps on Tuesday increasing into the upper 40s in the northern half of the CWA and to around 60 in portions of northwest WI.

The forecast beyond the precipitation chances tonight into Tuesday remains relatively unchanged with this update. Please see the previous discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Low pressure over Hudson Bay trailed a cold front into the eastern UP of Michigan and northeastern to southwestern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Some showers were lingering along and behind the front across northern Wisconsin, but most of this activity had cleared the Northland with dry conditions expected for most for the balance of the afternoon and evening. High pressure was building in from the Northern Plains with drier air. A pressure gradient remained over the Minnesota Arrowhead between the Hudson Bay low and the high moving in from the west leading to some breezier winds from northern into northeastern Minnesota. Heading into tonight, a stationary boundary will set up across northern Wisconsin into central Minnesota as a trough starts to emerge from the Rockies. This may lead to some light shower activity across our far southern zones tonight into tomorrow morning as moisture advects into the Upper Midwest along this boundary and with isentropic lift. Otherwise, most of the Northland will see a dry and fairly normal fall day with highs running near normal in the 40s.

High pressure will shift to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure lifts northward across the Plains as a mid-level trough moves into the central CONUS. As the low moves into Minnesota early Tuesday, it will lift a warm front northward and spread showers across the Northland. With lows Monday night falling below freezing along and north of the Iron Range, some light snow or pockets of all snow will be possible as precipitation moves in. Temperatures will quickly warm after sunrise and change any snow over to rain with little to no accumulation expected. Showers will taper off from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon before another chance for showers arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in association with a weak cold front. This front will then stall out across the region on Wednesday with warm southerly flow to the south of it. This will bring highs in the 60s across northwest Wisconsin and from around Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports area with 50s to the north and east. Another chance for showers will be seen along and ahead of this front for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as this system moves out of the region and high pressure builds in. While rainfall amounts for Wednesday don't look too impressive, there has been an upward trend in totals for the Monday night into Tuesday round with 0.5-0.75" possible from the Brainerd Lakes area into southern Pine and Burnett counties with amounts tailing off to the north and east.

Low chances for precipitation will then linger for late week and into the weekend, although guidance is less optimistic on this occurring than yesterday. Confidence in the warmer temperatures sticking around is higher, however, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected for late week and into the weekend with no hints of a 1991-style Halloween.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

MVFR stratus near INL is scattering out early this afternoon. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions through the remainder of today with gradually increasing cloud cover from the south. As a low pressure system approaches and moves into the Northland, expect rain in far southern portions of the area to spread from south to north this evening and tonight, and then exit from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect ceilings to deteriorate to MVFR and IFR with mainly MVFR visibility as the rain moves in and through Tuesday morning. DLH also has a 20-30% chance of seeing LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility on Tuesday morning. Winds remain mainly light from the east today and then increase from the east to southeast tonight into Tuesday with gusts of 15 kt to around 20 kt, strongest at DLH.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Minimal changes to the marine forecast with this update. Northeast winds around 5 to 15 knots today increase tonight as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest, while wind directions will veer from northeast to east-southeast. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the North Shore to Twin Ports to Apostle Islands late tonight into Tuesday as winds gust up to around 25 kt and waves build along portions of the North Shore up to 5 feet. Winds weaken on Tuesday evening into Wednesday and become south to southwesterly as the low pressure system exits northeast of the region.

Expect light to moderate rain tonight into Tuesday with some visibility reduction, but visibilities will remain above 1 NM.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Multiple chances for precipitation are expected this upcoming week as a fairly active weather pattern settles over the area. Increased cloud cover ahead of an approaching warm front is anticipated to trend RH higher today compared to yesterday, with min RH this afternoon lowering to around 40% on the low end. Widespread rain showers arrive tonight and continue into Tuesday as low pressure moves through the area, with the potential for light snow and minimal accumulation in far northern MN. Anticipate breezy east to southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph on Tuesday as the low pressure moves through. Temperatures today will be near to slightly below normal, trending unseasonably warm for the remainder of the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141- 142. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146- 147-150.