textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Smoky conditions continue throughout this week.

- Dangerous swim conditions today for the Twin Ports beaches along Lake Superior from a high rip current risk.

- Level 1 of 5 storm risk Thursday night into Friday for isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Another round possible Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Another round of dangerous heat is possible Friday for the Brainerd Lakes to WI/MN Stateline area.

- Potential early week fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

The smoky conditions will continue today and into Friday for much of the region. Visibility guidance is pointing towards a brief break in the thickest smoke late morning to mid-afternoon today before another round quickly moves across the Northland again late afternoon to tonight. Air Quality Alerts remain in effect for both Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Easterly winds today are forecast from 3 to 7 mph, except along the South Shore and Twin Ports where afternoon and evening gusts to 20 mph are likely from a strong lake breeze. This lake breeze strengthens wind gust speeds to 15 mph from east to west as it moves inland over northeast Minnesota late this afternoon and into this evening.

Those strong lake breeze winds creating a high risk for rip currents in the Twin Ports this afternoon and evening were the driver behind the Beach Hazards Statement issued this morning. This covers mainly Minnesota Point and Wisconsin Point beaches along Lake Superior in the Twin Ports.

Scattered rain showers are forecast today along and north of the Iron Range where localized pockets of rainfall from one- tenth to one-quarter inch could fall under the strong showers. The more likely scenario though is evident in much lower rainfall amounts. Modeled moisture profiles for the low to mid- levels though show a similar signature as what occurred yesterday in this similar area. Stripes of mid-level moisture produce a Trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rainfall, but the dry low-levels and little to no forcing for ascent limits any meaningful rainfall amounts. For this case, the Chances of rainfall early this morning and during the daytime today were capped at 30% in the forecast.

Isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Thursday night into Friday early morning. The most likely area for any strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are far north- central MN Thursday night, then spanning eastward into the Arrowhead early Friday morning. Large hail and damaging wind gusts to 60 mph are most likely from any strong thunderstorms in this time. Friday daytime seems multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms still behind the morning strong to marginally severe thunderstorm risk (Level 1 of 5). A secondary round of a few strong thunderstorms are again possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin late Friday afternoon into the evening hours depending how much environmental recovery can occur behind the morning convection. The mesoscale forcing for Friday afternoon is progged in guidance to be stronger than the morning round, which could aid in that secondary round of Level 1 of 5 strong to marginally severe thunderstorms depending on that recovery.

For locations to the south, the combination of dewpoints back into the upper-60s and mid-90s for the Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor and far western inland Wisconsin districts has concerns for Extreme Heat potential Friday afternoon. Heat Advisories are likely to be needed in time, but potentially limited-coverage Extreme Heat Warnings too.

The incoming cold front for the Friday convection passes over the region Friday night to result in a wind shift on Saturday back to north-northwesterly. This could aid in keeping smoke from regional wildfires over the Northland even this weekend.

On Sunday, warm temperatures setup with lower MinRHs back into the low-30% range. An incoming strong cold front drops southward Sunday night. Keep an eye out on the forecast for this Sunday night into Monday morning time period too for a low-end Severe Weather potential time period. The post-cold frontal period on Monday creates a wind shift with an uptick in northwesterly wind speeds. Monday would be a day to watch for near-critical fire weather conditions due to those strong northwest winds even as MinRHs may recover into the upper-30 percent range.

Seasonable temperatures and a mainly rain-free forecast sets up for Tuesday onward next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the rest of the day, a stalled frontal boundary remains stretched across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Dewpoints are gradually dropping from north to south behind this boundary. Thick wildfire smoke advecting southwestward is keeping temperatures cooler than previously expected. Consequently, the Heat Advisory has been cancelled for several central areas, but a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM this evening along our southern tier of counties. With very dry air in place, near- critical fire weather is possible this afternoon and evening from the Iron Range northward. Tonight, skies will be mostly cloudy with smoke thickening, while a few isolated showers could clip the far northern borderlands after midnight.

On Thursday, wildfire smoke will continue to linger across the Northland due to persistent northwesterly flow and very poor atmospheric mixing. Highs will remain unseasonably warm in the 80s for most inland locations. However, a lake breeze developing over Lake Superior will keep coastal areas cooler, in the 70s and lower 80s. This onshore wind will also increase the risk of dangerous rip currents at Twin Ports beaches. Rain chances will slowly rise through the day, with scattered light showers and perhaps a few isolated, non-severe thunderstorms developing by Thursday afternoon, particularly across northern Minnesota and near the international border.

By Friday, a brief reprieve from the thickest smoke may occur as low-level winds shift to the southwest ahead of a cold front. This front is forecast to trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms starting late Thursday night and continuing through Friday. Rainfall of a quarter-inch to a half-inch is generally expected, with localized amounts up to an three quarters of an inch. While this rain is highly beneficial for the wildfires up north, the potential for lightning in the dry Arrowhead raises concerns for new wildfire starts. A few severe storms are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as well, with damaging winds and large hail possible. High temperatures will vary widely on Friday, ranging from the humid upper 80s to cooler 70s along the North Shore within the lake breeze.

As the cold front exits to the east, dry and sunny conditions will return for Saturday. High temperatures will generally rise into the 80s. However, the post-frontal northwesterly flow will likely pull thick wildfire smoke back into the region. Places that get the thick smoke will likely have lower high temperatures than forecast. Sunday will start mostly sunny and warm, with highs once again reaching the 80s to near 90 degrees. A weak shortwave passing through could trigger a few isolated showers or storms by late Sunday afternoon, but most areas will remain dry.

A stronger weather system is forecast to cross the region Sunday night into Monday as an upper-level low tracks to our north. This system will bring another round of much-needed precipitation to the area. Once this system exits, dry and smoky conditions are expected to resume for much of next week. A cooler, more seasonal air mass will filter in behind this second front, bringing relief from the recent heat as daytime highs trend back into the comfortable 70s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions continue with periodic LIFR visibilities as wildfire smoke persists this TAF period. Expect some rain showers and potentially isolated non-severe thunderstorms along and north of the Iron Range today and tonight. Easterly winds gust to 20 knots today for the Twin Ports and South Shore.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 134 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots today gust to 25 knots in the Twin Ports and a period of hazardous conditions are expected this afternoon and evening in the southwest arm. A Small Craft Advisory was issued due to those expected conditions from Two Harbors to Duluth to Port Wing through sunset this evening. Northeast winds remain overnight and into Friday, but are forecast to be lighter than today near the Twin Ports so right now a Small Craft Advisory does not seem needed for Friday in the southwestern arm.

The ongoing dense smoke over all of the western waters will persist through today, but could be slight periods of improvement to a few nautical miles this afternoon before settling back in again below 1 nm by this evening. That Dense Marine Smoke Advisory was extended in time for all waters to now expire at 10 AM Friday morning. If future forecasts indicate continued trends of this marine smoke lingering, another extension in time maybe needed for that Advisory.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity today ranges from 38-48 percent across all districts today. Easterly 20 foot winds today are forecast from 3 to 7 mph, except along the South Shore and Twin Ports where afternoon gusts to 20 mph are likely from the ongoing lake breeze. This lake breeze strengthens wind gust speeds to 15 mph from east to west in northern Minnesota as it moves inland late this afternoon and into this evening.

Scattered rain showers are forecast today along and north of the Iron Range where localized pockets of rainfall from one- tenth to one-quarter inch could fall under the strong showers. Isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out even Thursday night into Friday early morning. The most likely area for any strong thunderstorms are far north-central MN Thursday night to the Arrowhead early Friday morning. Marginally large hail and gusty, erratic wind gusts are most likely from any strong thunderstorms in this time. A wind shift to southeasterly is forecast Friday morning as a warm front moves into the Upper Midwest. Another shift in winds to southwesterly by the afternoon also brings a warm up in temperatures. The combination of dewpoints back into the upper-60s and mid-90s for the Brainerd Lakes to I-35 corridor and far western inland Wisconsin districts has concerns for Extreme Heat potential Friday afternoon. Wind speeds increase to 10 mph gusting to 20 mph by Friday late afternoon and evening, but MinRHs are only forecast from 40-60% Friday daytime. Friday daytime seems multiple rounds of scattered thunderstorms still. A secondary round of a few strong thunderstorms are again possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin late Friday afternoon into the evening hours.

On Sunday, warm temperatures setup with lower MinRHs back into the low-30% range. An incoming strong cold front drops southward into Monday and creates a wind shift to northwesterly when gusty northwest winds are forecast Monday. Monday would be a day to watch for near-critical fire weather conditions due to those strong northwest winds even as MinRHs may recover into the upper-30 percent range.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Dense Smoke Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144-145.