textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries and light snow chances, primarily across northern Minnesota, this evening and overnight. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Clipper system overnight Wednesday and into Thursday brings snow to wintry mix across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Snow accumulations of 1-2 inches possible in portions of far northeast Minnesota.

- Warmer than normal temperatures for Thursday with highs above freezing for the entire local area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

GOES-19 water vapor imagery and 500mb RAP heights continue to depict our area in northwesterly flow this afternoon with a shortwave positioned in Manitoba, Canada that will push southeastward for tonight. Prior to this wave moving into the region, surface high pressure will remain present throughout the remaining daytime hours keeping our skies relatively clear and winds remaining light with highs generally in the teens for the rest of today. As we head into the overnight, the aforementioned shortwave will move into Northern Minnesota bringing some flurries and light snow with it. However, moisture with the passage of this wave is really not all that impressive in spite of its fairly decent appearance on water vapor imagery. As a result, the 03.12z HREF has fairly respectable probabilities (30-60%) for measurable snowfall in far north-central Minnesota. These probabilities diminish quickly as the wave moves southeast however, as both the shortwave weakens and the resulting moisture feed wanes. Regardless, really not expecting much for snowfall accumulations as the 03.12z HREF has very low probabilities (under 10% chance) for amounts of 1/2" or greater across northern Minnesota.

Additional surface high pressure moves into the area underneath some brief and weak ridging for Wednesday resulting in an increase in temperatures with median high temperatures in the NBM generally staying right around the 20 degree mark for much of the local area. Attention then turns to overnight Wednesday and into Thursday morning as a clipper system progresses out of Manitoba and into northern Minnesota. Currently, model guidance pushes the initial wave with this system fairly quickly through northeast Minnesota and northern Wisconsin during the morning hours on Thursday with a broad shield of light snow. However, as precipitation wanes during the morning and afternoon with the initial wave, a period of drizzle/freezing drizzle or sleet may be possible as both a warm nose works into the region in combination with a loss of saturation aloft during the mid to late morning hours on Thursday. However, confidence for any ice accumulation remains low at this point.

Some ridging works into the area on Thursday afternoon turning flow to southwest and westerly while ushering in much warmer temperatures with highs very likely reaching above freezing for most locations. However, by the overnight and into early Friday morning a surface cold front will begin to push in from the north, bringing both cooler temperatures and another round of precipitation, potentially beginning as a period of drizzle before deeper saturation and cooler temperatures switches p-types to snow. In any case, snow accumulations with this overall system seem light as probabilities in the NBM for one inch of snow or greater remain low (under 30%) aside from in the Minnesota Arrowhead where probabilities increase (30-80% chance).

As we head into the weekend, northwesterly flow gets re-established behind the front keeping temperatures more seasonable with highs generally in the 20s for the weekend. With the northwesterly flow regime in place, could see additional clipper systems move through with the global deterministic models (GFS/EC/Canadian) having some hint of a shortwave that moves through for Saturday. However, position differences on where this system ends up are quite large between various model groups at this point. As we head into next week, a broad upper-level ridge over the western CONUS shifts eastward which will likely usher in much warmer temperatures to start the upcoming week with median high temperatures in the NBM on Monday reaching into the 30s across the entire area, with some potential to reach into the 40s as shown in the higher percentiles of the NBM.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

GOES water vapor depicts a well-formed shortwave trough over Manitoba with surface low pressure also seen. This wave will shift southeast across the area tonight bringing diminishing lift as it weakens and moves southeast across the local area.

VFR ceilings are a high probability (90%) but lower level saturation is still in question with the weakening system tonight and Wed morning. Model guidance would suggest a signal for MVFR CIGS in most locations, but that signal is lower further southeast. In NW WI and for DLH, brought in VFR ceilings with the latest TAFs, but there could be a chance (15-20%) of MVFR in the morning. Prevailing P6SM -SN is continued for the northern area, with a chance for MVFR visibilities (30%). Mainly flurries are expected (60-70%) for areas southeast of an Arrowhead-HIB-BRD line.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 221 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Quiet conditions are expected on Western Lake Superior through Wednesday afternoon with winds remaining under 10 kts and waves less than 1 ft. A clipper system will move through the area on Thursday with winds increasing behind a cold frontal passage on Thursday night and into Friday morning to around 15-25 kts from the northwest with gusts up to 30 kts. As a result, Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this period.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.