textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system will bring a prolonged period of snow to the Northland today into Saturday. Snow squalls may develop this morning, and again this evening through Friday morning as colder air and gusty winds arrive.

- There is a 10-20% chance of several hours of freezing drizzle or sleet this morning and early afternoon over central and north-central Minnesota. - Below normal temperatures return this weekend into next week. Highs in the single digits above and below zero with overnight lows in the teens below zero are forecast. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero are forecast Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Currently over the Northland, a surface ridge axis extends northeastward through the region, with low stratus off western Lake Superior spreading over portions of northwest WI with light snow/flurries falling. To our west, mid to high level clouds are moving into north central MN, ahead of the next clipper. A surface low is centered well to our north over northern Manitoba, with warm front extending southward into the Central Plains. The ridge axis quickly shifts to the east this morning as a shortwave advances across the Canadian Rockies and into the Plains. This will push the warm front into the Northland, ahead of the southeastward moving surface low.

Recent CAMs show a band of snow showers developing up stream and moving SSE into the Northland later this morning, associated with significant pressure falls and a band of frontogenesis ahead of the trough, and steep lapse rates and saturated columns aloft. This could lead to locally heavy snow showers, with snowfall rates of 0.5-1.0 inch per hour, and sudden reductions in visibility. There is still dry air at the surface that we need to overcome, and uncertainty amongst model guidance on if, and where, these heavier snow showers are most likely. Will likely cover the potential impacts with a SPS this morning, and assess trends once activity develops upstream.

There is a low chance of freezing rain/sleet mixing in at times, particularly across the Brainerd Lakes area, as a warmer nose nudges in from the southwest behind the warm front while a pocket of drier air pushes across the Red River Valley ahead of the shortwave. Other than a very light glaze, no ice accumulations are expected. The warm nose and drier air is not as pronounced further northeast, and expect all snow east of the US 53 corridor. Along the North Shore, with increasing southwest winds, there could be some enhanced snowfall from Tofte northward this afternoon.

As the shortwave and cold front arrive tonight, lapse rates steepen again and could see another round of heavier snow showers this evening that could quickly reduce visibilities with a 20-30% chance of snowfall rates of 0.5-1.0 inch per hour. Another SPS or advisory might be needed. Otherwise, as the shortwave closes off over the Great Lakes, light snowfall will persist over the Northland into Saturday. Totals though Saturday morning will approach 3-6 inches for locations north of US-2. Locally higher amounts are expected over northwest WI, due to lake effect showers.

The first of two cold air surges arrives Friday night. Weekend highs will be 10 to 20 degrees below normal with readings in the single digits either side of zero. Dangerous wind chills are forecast Sunday night into Monday morning as another cold front dives southward across the region. Colder than normal temps will persist for much of the upcoming week and may drop well below normal again next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Outside of the South Shore snowbelt in north-central Wisconsin, where low clouds persist, mid and high clouds stream across the area ahead of the next weather system. An incoming clipper system brings snowfall chances beginning this morning, through the forecast period. A few heavier snow showers today could bring sudden drops in vis with snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inch per hour. Cannot rule out a period of SN/FZDZ that could lead to a light glaze of ice on untreated surfaces. South to southwest winds increase through the morning, with gusts up to 22kts, before veering to the west tonight. Cigs fall to MVFR heights this morning, with IFR heights possible this afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 258 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds increase from the southwest this morning ahead of an approaching clipper. Conditions will become hazardous with gusty winds and building waves. Gusts of 25-30kts are possible in all nearshore zones. Heavier snow showers are possible mid morning into the afternoon, causing quick reductions in visibility. A cold front will pass eastward across the water tonight and Friday morning which will veer winds northwesterly. By late Friday afternoon and early Friday evening wind and waves will become hazardous once again and there is a 30-40% chance of gales to 35 knots near Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Winds gradually relax Saturday afternoon and evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140- 141. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ142>148-150.