textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow squalls are possible this afternoon into early this evening though the threat for these is generally decreasing.

- Saturday afternoon will see critical fire weather conditions with low relative humidity and strong and gusty southwest winds.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will linger into Sunday as relative humidity values continue to be low though wind speeds will be notably lower than on Saturday.

- An active and dynamic weather pattern returns next week. Multiple systems will bring chances for rain, accumulating snow, mixed precipitation, and even a few thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Our primary focus this afternoon and evening is on the potential for snow squalls traversing the Northland. An upper level disturbance pushing into the region will combine with steep low level lapse rates to produce convective snow showers this afternoon into early this evening. The greatest risk for these intense bursts of snow will be across the Arrowhead, down through the Twin Ports, and into northwest Wisconsin. While not everyone will see them, any squalls that do develop could cause rapid drops in visibility to a quarter mile or less and put down a quick coating of snow, making for briefly hazardous travel on untreated roads. Activity will rapidly taper off this evening, leaving us with clearing skies and overnight low temperatures dropping into the single digits in the MN Arrowhead and teens elsewhere. All of that said, the general model trends have lowered this threat.

Saturday afternoon brings a critical fire weather threat. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Saturday afternoon for our Minnesota zones, and Special Weather Statements will cover portions of northwest Wisconsin. An inverted trough will cross the region giving a brief wave of clouds and possibly some light snow in the morning. The clouds are expected to rapidly clear and we will see temperatures warm significantly. A powerful 60 knot low level jet will drive strong southwest surface winds, tapping into a warm and very dry air mass. High resolution model guidance, particularly the HRRR, shows relative humidity values bottoming out into the teens during the afternoon. The combination of these strong winds, highly receptive fuels in snow free areas, and plummeting humidity will create dangerous fire weather conditions where any ignitions could spread rapidly Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday, surface high pressure builds across Ontario, bringing a quieter end to the weekend. While the gusty winds from Saturday will subside, relative humidity values will continue to flirt with the 20s during the afternoon, maintaining at least some localized elevated fire weather concerns. Temperatures will soar well above normal, with highs reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s across our southern forecast zones. However, folks near Lake Superior will experience a classic localized cooling effect, with a sharp temperature gradient keeping coastal communities noticeably chillier on the North Shore.

The pattern becomes highly active and complex as we move into the upcoming work week. A series of upper level troughs will eject out of the Rockies and move across the Northern Plains, bringing multiple rounds of precipitation to the Northland starting as early as Monday afternoon. These initial waves develop into a stronger storm system and will continue to impact the Upper Midwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Because we are in a transitional spring pattern, we can expect a wild mix of precipitation types, including rain, accumulating snow, and potentially some freezing rain. We may even pull enough moisture and instability northward to see a few thunderstorms, depending on the exact track of the surface low.

Looking toward the end of the forecast period on Thursday, the expansive storm system affecting the Great Lakes region will begin to exit, but wrap around moisture and lingering cyclonic flow will keep skies mostly cloudy with persistent slight chances for light snow showers. Temperatures will cool back down to near or slightly below seasonal averages, with highs generally topping out in the 30s and lower 40s. We will continue to monitor the track of the early week system, as its ultimate path will dictate just how quickly we dry out and clear up heading into the late week timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the evening and most of the night. Warm air from the west will lead to a small chance for light snow showers in the morning and early afternoon, but probabilities of occurrence in the vicinity of the terminals are too low to include in the TAF due to dry conditions in the low levels. Winds out of the northwest this evening will switch to the southwest and increase throughout the day tomorrow with gusts up to 30 kts in the mid afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. Northwest winds will gust to 25 knots this afternoon with waves building to 3 to 6 feet over the Outer Apostle Islands before tapering off tonight. Based on the latest model trends, winds have been boosted over the lake for Saturday likely requiring additional Small Craft Advisories. Gale potential is < 30 percent near Grand Portage.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ025-026- 033>038. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140- 141-146-147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148.