textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold air moving over the region will lead to spotty, light rain and snow showers this afternoon into tonight. Snow accumulations will be minimal to none.

- Lake-effect precipitation sets up over the South Shore snow belts later this afternoon through Friday morning, starting as a rain/snow mix and then transitioning to all snow starting Wednesday night. Total snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches are forecast, with localized amounts to 3 inches possible in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties.

- A high pressure moves in for the end of the weekend into early next week, with a gradual warming trend starting late this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Current conditions/Today:

The morning mesoscale banded precipitation has exited the region this afternoon with much cooler northerly winds filtering in from Canada. Steep low level lapse rates are mixing with low level moisture and a lobe of vorticity pivoting across the Northland. Day cloud phase RGB is showing some green hues in the cloud cover advecting in from the north indicative of glaciation and some showery activity. Surface temperatures across the north remain above freezing but the cold air aloft could mix in some snowflakes as these scattered showers continue south through this afternoon and evening.

Tonight:

Isolated showery activity will continue through the early portions of the night across the Northland as a PVA couplet rotates through the cold air advection aloft. Lake effect showers will also ramp up across the South Shore this evening as 850mb temps will be around -9C with the surface of Lake Superior still sitting at a warm 9C. This will lead to lake induced instability of around 200 J/kg supporting the activity. Thermal profiles keep the moist layer out of the DGZ so not expecting large flakes but the instability in play could certainly lead to isolated areas seeing heavier bursts of snow at times. One tricky part of this forecast package is the forecasted overnight lows. The NBM seems to be on the very low side of all available guidance with the South Shore projected to be around 25-28F. Meanwhile, some of the other AI models are suggesting temps closer to 30-33F which would still allow for snow accumulation but not nearly as efficient as what the NBM is suggesting. For now, we have opted to raise Min Ts closer to 29-31F, especially considering the added cloud cover which should keep it slightly on the warmer side.

Thursday/Friday:

Lake effect showers will continue for the South Shore and start to taper off on Friday as winds begin to shift towards out of the northwest and drier air starts to advect in. Warm ground temperatures will help to mitigate the impacts of snow accumulation but the prolonged period could yield and inch or two in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron Counties. The surrounding areas will likely stay with a dusting to half an inch. The remainder of the Northland will remain on the quiet side of things with temperatures noticeably cooler for Thursday and Friday with highs staying in the 30s.

Weekend-Mid Next Week:

Upper level ridging will dominated the weather pattern through the weekend and early next week. This will keep weather uneventful and lead to a very gradual warming trend through the work week. Temperatures begin in the upper 30s and low 40s for Saturday and will climb into the upper 40s and low 50s by Wednesday. Not expecting a pattern change until middle of the week when an upper level trough ejects out of the Four Corners which could lead to precipitation chances returning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

While models are struggling with the timing and placement of cloud cover the general consensus is that MVFR ceilings will become more prevalent as we go through the forecast period. Satellite trends show and expansion of the clouds currently moving in from the north with some embedded showery activity. The cooler air mass will linger through the period with MVFR ceilings likely being a mainstay with occasional rain/snow mix at times. Little to no accumulation expected from the precipitation.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Northerly flow has settled in over Lake Superior with winds of 10 to 15 kts and gusts of 20 to 25 kts. These conditions will persist through tonight. By late tomorrow morning winds will remain out of the north but the strongest corridor will shift slightly east allowing for Small Craft Advisories to end across the head of the Lake. Further weakening is expected through Thursday afternoon with only Grand Marais to Grand Portage holding steady on wind gusts upwards of 25 kts. Additionally, expect intermittent showers through today across Lake Superior. Later this evening this activity will become more confined to the South Shore as lake effect snow/rain showers will ramp up and persist into Friday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

No fire weather concerns. Scattered to isolated showers through the afternoon and evening hours across the region. Accumulations will be negligible for most. Later this evening lake effect rain/snow showers will impact the South Shore and persist into Friday morning. Most the area will see a dusting of snow but the higher elevations could see a couple inches of snow. Quiet weather through the weekend and the early portions of next week with temperatures gradually climbing back into the 40s and low 50s.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-145>147. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Thursday for LSZ141>144. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for LSZ148-150.