textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow Saturday: A quick-moving system brings widespread light snow to the region tomorrow morning, with accumulations generally remaining around an inch or less.

- Sunday winter system: A more potent disturbance arrives Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, bringing a threat for a narrow band of heavy snow followed by a transition to freezing drizzle or a wintry mix.

- Icing may be a concern Sunday afternoon near Brainerd

- A significant warm up is in store for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

The first of two weather systems approaches late tonight into Saturday morning. This is a classic clipper that will spread a quick shot of light snow across the area, and should be very similar to the last one day before yesterday. Moisture is somewhat limited, so we are expecting a high-probability but low-impact event. Most locations should see a dusting up to perhaps an inch of fluffy accumulation. The snow will taper off from west to east during Saturday afternoon, leaving just some lingering lake-effect flurries along the South Shore.

Sunday presents a more complex and potentially impactful scenario. Forecast guidance suggests a stronger low pressure system will move in from the Northern Plains by the afternoon. This system has access to better moisture and stronger lift, which raises the potential for a burst of moderate to heavy snow Sunday evening. There is a signal for a narrow band of 4 to 6 inches of snow, though exactly where that band sets up remains uncertain. The WPC highlights a 50-70% probability of 4+ inches of snow from near Duluth eastward through the U.P. (including the MN Arrowhead) Sunday night. The speed of this system which would tend to lower snowfall amounts might be offset by intense snowfall rates due to strong forcing. The clipper should be ingesting a strong shot of WAA on an 850 mb jet minimizing the dendritic growth zone; therefore, lowering snow ratios more towards 10:1. To complicate matters, that warm air advection aloft may introduce a wintry mix or freezing drizzle as the system exits early Monday morning giving us another round of that pesky ice before we get toasty.

Looking ahead to next week, a significant warming trend is on the way. We expect high temperatures to climb above freezing, reaching the 30s for much of the week. This thaw will likely melt some of the fresh snowpack. While the weather looks quieter for mid-week, we are monitoring another potential system toward next weekend that could bring rain or snow depending on the track.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions currently in place over the Northland with high clouds starting to stream in from the west. Tomorrow morning light snow is expected to dip in from northwest and spread southeast. This looks to be fairly similar to what we saw on Thursday. A fast moving system with very high snow ratios leading to very fluffy snow. Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR with this system. Snow will taper off in the afternoon with ceilings gradually improving. Snow totals are expected to be less than an inch across the region.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 121 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters from Taconite Harbor northeast to Grand Portage, and along the South Shore from Port Wing to the Apostle Islands. West to northwest winds will gust to 25 knots today before diminishing this evening. Winds shift to the southeast and increase again on Sunday ahead of the next system.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LSZ140- 141-146-150.