textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Any lingering snow showers and winds will dissipate throughout the afternoon and evening.

- A weak clipper will bring up to 2 inches of additional snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Warm temperatures during the day will lead to a daily freeze- thaw cycle for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The powerful winter storm that brought heavy snow to the region is now departing to the east. While the primary snowfall has ended for almost everyone, light lake effect snow and light convective snow showers are possible throughout the afternoon wherever there is cloud cover. Additionally, gusty north winds are expected to subside this evening and overnight as a brief ridge of high pressure moves into the area.

Very cold air will settle over the Northland tonight. As clouds clear and winds decrease, temperatures will drop well below zero across much of the region. This cold snap will be brief, however, as a fast-moving clipper system arrives from the northwest on Tuesday. This system will bring a mix of rain and snow across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will start out with all snow overnight. Total snow accumulations will be light, ranging from a trace in the Arrowhead to around two inches in the Brainerd Lakes area. There is a slight chance for some freezing drizzle/fog on the back end of the system with lingering low level moisture and loss of moisture and ice aloft.

Warm air advection behind the system will bring any frozen precipitation to an end, and could also lead to a second round of precipitation overnight Wednesday in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. However, the probability of this second round occurring is low (<30%).

A transition to a spring-like pattern begins on Wednesday and lasts through the weekend. Warm air moving in behind the clipper will push daytime temperatures into the 40s and 50s. Nighttime lows will continue to drop below freezing, resulting in a freeze-thaw cycle. This may lead to some ponding on roads and messy melting conditions as the snowpack begins to melt.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions are being observed across all terminals early this morning as high pressure occurs. An arriving Clipper will be increasing cloud cover later this morning into the afternoon. This Clipper will be bringing widespread light accumulating snow Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with visibility likely decreasing to at least IFR. A layer of dry air is expected to be present prior to snowfall beginning early this afternoon. Once this dry air becomes saturated, a brief period of LIFR visibility will be possible due to moderate snowfall rates up to 0.5" per hour.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 959 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

The Gale Warnings have been downgraded to Small Craft Advisories for the remainder of this evening into tonight as the threat for wind gusts in excess of 30 kt has diminished. Still looking at heavy freezing spray until shortly after midnight for portions of the South Shore due to elevated waves, breezy winds, and cold temperatures. Winds and waves continue to weaken tonight in western Lake Superior. No changes to the forecast for Tuesday night with this update.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Gale Warnings and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect for much of Western Lake Superior through late this afternoon. North winds will gust up to 45 knots with waves as high as 10 to 14 feet along the South Shore. Conditions will improve tonight, but south winds will increase again Tuesday night as the next clipper system approaches. Increased winds along the North Shore may lead to hazardous conditions for small craft during this time period.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ140-141-147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ142>146. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 1 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ146>148-150.