textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A system will bring light mixed precipitation tonight into Wednesday, with a glaze of ice and light snow accumulations possible across portions of the area.

- A warmup for the weekend is expected with highs reaching into the 50s and 60s.

- Melting snow and possible heavy rainfall may lead to localized flooding early next week in northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

For the rest of the day, expect sunny skies and temperatures into the upper 30s and 40s across the Northland. High pressure is providing a brief respite before our next system approaches from the west. Clouds will begin to thicken tonight as a warm front lifts into the region. Precipitation will develop after midnight, initially fighting dry air at the surface. As the column saturates, a wintry mix is expected to overspread the area. A warm nose aloft will create the potential for freezing rain, and a glaze of ice remains possible by Wednesday morning, primarily across our eastern zones in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead. Additionally, the North Shore could see some enhanced snowfall Wednesday morning from lake and terrain effects, totaling up to 2 inches by noon. Other Borderland locations will generally see less than an inch.

Also throughout Wednesday, an advancing cold front will sweep across the area. With high temperatures pushing into the 40s and mid 50s, morning mixed precipitation will largely transition to scattered rain showers for the afternoon. Most will see precipitation end by late afternoon, but a second round of precipitation including snow, rain, and ice pellets is possible tomorrow evening across the northern Iron Range and Borderlands. This activity will be driven by a backdoor cold front sliding south, and there is even enough instability that a rumble of thunder or two and convective, heavy precipitation cannot be ruled out.

Moving into Thursday, continued cold air advection on northwest flow will bring additional light snow showers, particularly lingering over the Arrowhead region. Further south, a trough dipping into the central plains will push an associated front across the Midwest. This feature could reach far enough north to bring some light mixed precipitation to central Minnesota and Wisconsin, though very little accumulation, if any, is expected from this southern stream system.

A major pattern shift arrives for the weekend as broad ridging builds across the central United States. This will kick off a significant warming trend, with high temperatures soaring into the 50s and 60s across the Northland. While the warmer weather will be welcome, it will initiate a rapid melting of the remaining snowpack. Simultaneously, a deep conveyor belt of moisture will surge northward from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, setting the stage for a very wet period.

This efficient rainfall setup will target our region from Sunday into early next week, with the heaviest axis currently appearing to favor northwest Wisconsin. Rain totals over an inch are certainly possible. Given the combination of this incoming heavy rainfall and the ongoing snowmelt, there is an increasing risk for localized flooding and rapid river rises. We will be monitoring hydrologic conditions closely throughout the week. Finally, this rainy period will come to an end with the passage of a clipper system across the Northern Plains next week. This will usher in colder air and bring more snow on the backside of the system, though exact amounts remain highly uncertain at this range.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 614 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR flight conditions for the moment with gusty southerly winds. Winds will only increase through the night with a little bit of low level wind shear to contend with. Eventually a system will cross tonight brushing International Falls. With the vast amount of dry air in the low levels, don't think that any precipitation will be realized until later tonight. The warm front for the system crosses overnight and the cold front will follow on Wednesday afternoon. Probably will see a wintry mix of conditions in the early morning hours of Wednesday, before the cold front crosses. Expect a transition to IFR conditions by Wednesday morning and then back to MVFR in the afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

South to southeast winds will begin to increase tonight ahead of an approaching system. On Wednesday, gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected, particularly along the North Shore and the Outer Apostle Islands where Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds shift to the southwest on Thursday and increase again, with gusts approaching 30 knots across all nearshore waters.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

South to southwest winds will remain light through the rest of the afternoon before increasing on Wednesday to 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40% with this next system on Wednesday and Thursday. Friday will be our next relatively dry day with minimum relative humidity values in the 30s and 40s, with the potential of lowering further with future forecasts. This weekend, incoming precipitation will limit any near term fire weather concerns across the region for the weekend into next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140-148.