textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm to hot summertime temperatures will persist into next week.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for several places through mid-week due to hot and dry weather conditions.

- Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two possible around the Brainerd Lakes area into parts of northwest Wisconsin tonight into Monday.

- Widespread chances for rain increase after Wednesday this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Current Weather through Monday: As has been the trend for several days, the weather is pretty dry and quiet out there. Relative humidity has fallen below 25 percent for much of northeast Minnesota where skies are mostly clear. Winds are pretty light out there, so fire weather conditions are not to red flag criteria, but near-critical fire weather conditions will persist through the afternoon and early evening.

Around the Brainerd Lakes, a ribbon of vorticity has been producing clouds and a few showers. This feature will very slowly move northeast tonight and into Monday, so scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes and east-southeast into parts of northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts from all this should be pretty light, but localized amounts around or a bit above a tenth of an inch will be possible.

Near-Critical Fire Weather and Heat: We will still be largely under the influence of high pressure to the east through about Tuesday night. With continued southerly flow, most places will see a similar weather pattern of warm to hot high temperatures with dry conditions. We can expect relative humidity to fall below 25 percent for many areas once again Monday and Tuesday, resulting in near-critical fire weather conditions. Winds will be a bit more blustery on Monday, but the strongest winds will be around Lake Superior and thus displaced from where the lowest humidity is expected. Therefore, red flag conditions are not expected in the next few days.

Pattern Change Wednesday: A closed low that's expected to park approximately over Saskatchewan Monday and Tuesday will eventually move east and bring with it a cold front that will bring some more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Northland. At this point, it doesn't look like instability will support severe weather, but some general thunderstorms will be possible. Most ensembles suggest rainfall amounts in the quarter to half inch range, but there will probably be some variability in amounts due to convection.

Dominant ridging will likely return Friday into Saturday, but there could be some warm-frontal showers and storms as southerly flow returns. Overall, it looks like a bit of a "dirty ridge" through the weekend and into early next week with chances for weak disturbances to pass through that could keep scattered rain chances going.

Temperature-wise, we are pretty firmly situated into a summertime pattern, so highs in the 80s are likely to be common for at least the next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the period with light east to southeasterly winds. The lone exception is at BRD where an upper-level disturbance is bringing some clouds with showers in the vicinity to the south. A few showers could affect the terminal through the afternoon, but will be most likely after sunset and through tonight. With dry air near the surface, rainfall in general is expected to be pretty light with visibility restrictions not expected. It is possible that there could be a period of MVFR ceilings during Monday morning as the disturbance moves further northeast.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Fairly light onshore winds are in place this afternoon, resulting in some choppy waters around the Twin Ports, but wave heights are expected to general remain around a foot through the early evening. Winds are expected to remain northeasterly through Monday and Tuesday. A tightening pressure gradient on Monday is expected to produce some stronger gusts along the North Shore and down into the Twin Ports. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for several hours Monday afternoon and early evening. Winds will be lighter Tuesday, and Small Craft Advisories are not anticipated at this time. Winds will shift more southerly on Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Expect a similar weather pattern of warm to hot temperatures with dry conditions to persist through at least Tuesday. High pressure and light southeast winds Monday and southerly winds Tuesday will keep conditions from becoming critical, but with fairly widespread RH below 25 percent expected, conditions will be near-critical for many places.

Some scattered showers and possibly a storm or two are possible around the Brainerd Lakes and into northwest Wisconsin through Monday. Not much rain is expected, but a few places could pick up around a tenth of an inch.

Going into Wednesday, a bit of a pattern change is looking likely with a cold front that may bring some showers and storms to most places into Thursday. Rainfall amounts will likely be variable, but most models suggest around a quarter to half an inch for several places. There may be additional scattered rain chances going into next weekend as well. With a more moist weather pattern, RH in general is likely to be higher, reducing near-critical fire weather chances.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.