textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and drizzle over the Arrowhead, I-35 corridor, and northwest Wisconsin will taper off from west to east this morning. Additional rainfall amounts of less than 0.25 inches are forecast.

- Depending on temperatures, some very light lake-effect snow could make an appearance along parts of the South Shore Thursday evening and Thursday night.

- Looking ahead, cooler weather expected for Friday and Saturday, but then warming next week. The precipitation chances are trending dry through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The impressive mid-latitude cyclone that brought widespread rain across the region will exit the region on Thursday, bringing an end to the precipitation. After that, expect dry conditions this weekend and most of next week.

CURRENT TODAY - THURSDAY NIGHT

Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery showed a beautiful occluded system across the Upper Midwest, with the center of the upper level circulation along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border. A band of showers stretched from eastern South Dakota up through Ontario. Low clouds blanketed the region along with additional pockets of showers and drizzle.

Overnight, the deformation band of precipitation will get sheared out as an upper level wave moves down from central Canada, and kick our system to the east on Thursday. This upper level wave will drive a large area of cold air across the Great Lakes region, with H850 temps of -5 to -7C leading to banded lake effect precipitation Thursday evening and overnight. Did continue with chances for rain and snow across northern Wisconsin, with accumulation of less than a half inch. The 18Z HRRR is more aggressive with this precipitation, so if that solution holds we could see perhaps an inch or two on grassy and elevated surfaces. On Thursday night, low temperatures will fall into the 20s, with a few teens across northern Minnesota.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

High pressure will follow on Friday. For the weekend and into next week, the storm track will be to the north of the International Border. The forecast is trending drier, as only a few passing cold front will bring a wind shift and some mid level clouds. Temperatures will be on the cool side Friday and Saturday, but should moderate next week with highs back in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A wedge of clearing was located over portions of north-central Minnesota tonight. Low stratus over most of central MN and the Arrowhead and across northwest Wisconsin will be replaced overnight by another band of stratus moving into northwest MN as of 0540Z. Expect IFR/MVFR conditions to persist through Thursday and gradually improve from west to east Thursday night. Light rain and drizzle will end from west to east this morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 205 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Rain, drizzle, and patchy fog will continue today and overnight. There is a marine dense fog advisory until 6 pm for areas along the Wisconsin near-shore, but this may be cancelled early if clearing trends continue.

The main concern is increasing northerly trends after midnight, and wave above 4 feet along the north shore, and the Wisconsin near-shore areas. Did issue a small craft advisory for this time frame, with the highest waves expected near the Grand Marais and Grand Portage area, and also along and east of the Apostle Islands.

Winds will decrease Thursday night, so expect waves to fall below 4 ft on Friday. Winds will remain light this weekend and into next week.

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For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Low fire weather concerns into next week. The slow moving storm system has brought widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain across much of the region. An additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches are expected today into tonight.

On Thursday, northerly winds will increase, with gusts of 20 to 35 mph at times. The highest winds will be along the North Short. Min afternoon humidity values should remain above 50 percent.

Looking ahead, dry conditions will settle in on Friday, and the forecast is trending dry through most of next week. Winds will be light, and humidity values should remain above 40 percent every day next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ145. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ146>148-150.