textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold this morning and then temperatures moderate and warm through this weekend with a daily freeze/thaw.

- Light rain, snow, and patchy freezing rain possible Wednesday with minor wintry accumulations possible.

- Areas of rain expected late this weekend into next week. Some areas may see over an inch of rain and there is a chance this could lead to some minor flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

High pressure has brought a clear and calm night to the Northland early this morning, along with continued cold air advection behind yesterday's system. This has allowed temperatures to tank with morning lows expected to be in the single digits above and below zero by the time we reach sunrise. The chill shouldn't last for long though, with afternoon highs returning above freezing for much of the Northland today with sunny to partly cloudy skies.

An upper level cut off low and attending vort max are still on track to wander off of the Canadian Rockies and just north of the International Border Wednesday, joining forces with a weak shortwave pulling gulf moisture up the Central Plains. This will bring our next chance of precipitation beginning late Tuesday night. There will be a lot of dry air to work through initially, which has caused a trimming back of PoPs for Tuesday evening. Once the system starts, it has three phases to it:

A) A warm frontal wintry mix should start to reach the surface after midnight Wednesday bringing some light precipitation to NW WI and the MN Arrowhead. With a warm nose aloft, this could be a bit of a freezing rain/snow mix and some folks in the aforementioned areas could wake up to a dusting of snow and a glaze of ice Wednesday morning.

B) The attending cold front then pushes from west to east through the day Wednesday, bringing a quick shot of rain or snow. Recent trends have pushed this whole system just a touch further north and brought afternoon highs into the 40s Wednesday, trending our daytime precipitation types more and more towards rain across the area. Now, its really only along the border that has the best chance to hold a rain/snow mix through the day.

C) As that front passes, some colder air advects in on the backside and brings some light snow Wednesday evening into very early Thursday morning. This portion of the system could have some decent low level lapse rates and pockets of instability which may lend itself to more of a convective snow shower behavior. Mid level dry air starts to wrap into this system late Wednesday evening which may assist in shutting off precipitation.

Overall, not expecting too much in the way of accumulations with this midweek system. A glaze of ice to several hundredths is possible Wednesday morning, should freezing rain develop. With pretty warm surface temperatures through the day, any ice impacts should be short lived. The best chance for snow accumulations are along the Borderlands and the MN Arrowhead where a couple tenths up to an inch of snow are possible. Rain may end up being the predominant precipitation type, and accumulations of 0.05-0.25" are possible, greatest north of Hwy 2 in NE MN and east of Hwy 53 in NW WI.

We will see a warming trend into the weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows below freezing. Friday and early Saturday may also feature laudable amounts of sunshine. This should kick off another round of thawing and snowmelt across the Northland (and maybe nudge the leaf-out line a little closer). Sunday into early Tuesday, a corridor of significant moisture should set up from Texas to the Great Lakes. This will bring even warmer temperatures pushing both lows and highs above freezing. This set up should bring a rainy period to the Northland Sunday morning into Tuesday. It's a little too early to get too cute with the details, but a couple rounds of more moderate rainfall could be possible, with much of the Northland now seeing a 20-60% chance of receiving 1"+ rainfall over two days. Should thunderstorms be able to get this far north, locally higher amounts are definitely possible. This rain could enhance area streamflow and river levels, especially if combined with snowmelt (most likely for MN Arrowhead and portions of the South Shore) and there is a non-zero chance that this could cause some areal and river flooding. Hydrologic ensemble output does show the potential (10-60% chance) for some rivers along the South Shore to rise above minor flood stage early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. South to southeast winds start to pick up through the day Tuesday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Fairly light southerly winds over the lake today pick up overnight into Wednesday. With the warm air coming in from this southerly flow, there is some uncertainty on just how much of the breeze will get down to the surface of the lake Wednesday, but some areas could see gusts 20-25 knots and waves of 1-4 ft. The most likely places for this are in the Outer Apostle Islands and along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage where Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Some mixed precipitation is possible through the day Wednesday. Into Thursday, winds turn to become southwesterly and strengthen. Widespread 20 knot winds with gusts of 25-30 knots are expected and we'll need Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore zones. Winds should quiet late Thursday into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.