textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Blizzard conditions are expected today along the North Shore and around the Twin Ports

- A combination of heavy snow, wintry mix, and gusty winds will lead to hazardous traveling conditions throughout the day today.

- A second storm may bring impactful snowfall to northwest Wisconsin and portions of the Arrowhead quickly following this system late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A powerful and complex winter storm remains centered over central Minnesota this morning, continuing to lash the Northland with a variety of dangerous hazards. Strong mid- to- upper level atmospheric forcing and frontogenesis are maintaining high precipitation rates. In addition, this has lead to showers that are convective, leading to thundersnow this morning. Heavy snow is the primary concern for most of northeast Minnesota, while a transition from rain and freezing rain to snow will occur across northwest Wisconsin later this morning and afternoon as the cold front moves through.

The most extreme conditions are focused along the North Shore of Lake Superior. Strong easterly winds have already gusted up to 65 mph this morning. These winds are interacting with the local terrain and picking up moisture from the lake, significantly boosting snowfall rates to nearly an inch per hour at times. While most of the region will see an additional 4 inches of snow today, the North Shore ridge could see an additional 12 to 18 inches. Visibility in these blizzard and storm warned areas will frequently drop to zero due to the combination of heavy falling snow and significant blowing snow. As the low pressure system tracks toward the northeast today, winds will slowly decrease and veer to the northwest, but hazardous conditions will linger well into Thursday. Snow that falls today will also be wet and heavy particularly in areas south of the Iron Range, with snow to liquid ratios below 10. Caution should be taken when shoveling snow. Travel remains treacherous across the entire region this morning and throughout today from the differing conditions across the region. In the Brainerd Lakes area and throughout much of northwest Wisconsin, an initial glaze of ice from freezing rain and sleet is being covered by fresh snow, hiding very slippery surfaces. In the Twin Ports, a mix of heavy snow and high winds will continue to make the morning and evening commutes very difficult.

We are watching a second Colorado low expected to develop quickly behind this current system. This second storm will take a more southerly and easterly track, moving through northern Iowa/Illinois into Wisconsin and Michigan. While the core of the strongest weather will stay to our east, the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see locally heavy snowfall and an additional up to 5 inches of snow early Friday morning. Following this second system, cold air moving in from the northwest will keep light snow showers in the forecast through Sunday evening. An active weather pattern appears likely to persist through late next week, but confidence is low of any one solution of when/where precipitation will occur through next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A strong winter system is leading to widespread reductions in ceilings and visibilities from wintry precipitation. This is expected to continue through the morning morning, with some terminals lifting to MVFR/VFR by late Wednesday afternoon. Slow, steady improvements in conditions will be seen throughout the afternoon as the system passes through the Northland and snow becomes lighter. Confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF, but light snow showers could persist into tonight with MVFR ceilings and visibility to accompany it. LLWS is included as well with up to 55 kts of shear through the early morning. Winds will slowly decrease out of the east and veer to the southwest throughout the TAF period. Gusts up to 40 kts for all and up to 55 kts for DLH are expected through the night.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A Storm Warning is in effect for the North Shore and Twin Ports waters through this afternoon, with a Gale Warning for the South Shore. Expect easterly winds gusting to 50 knots and waves building to 8 to 11 feet, with occasional heights up to 14 feet along the North Shore. Wind gusts up to 45 kts are expected along the South Shore, though waves will be small along the shoreline as winds will be offshore for most of today. Apostle Islands, however, could see waves of 8 to 11 ft as well. Conditions will remain hazardous for small craft into Thursday as waves slowly subside.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning until noon CST Thursday for MNZ020-021-037. Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MNZ010-011- 018. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for MNZ012-019. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ025- 026-033>036. WI...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for WIZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>144. Blizzard Warning until noon CST Thursday for LSZ142. Gale Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ145-146-148- 150.