textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures are expected for the rest of the week, with above freezing temperatures during the day and below freezing overnight.

- Quiet weather continues through the weekend, with a more active pattern expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A secondary trough associated with a clipper system in Ontario is currently moving out of the Northland. This brought some light snow to the Arrowhead and parts of northwest Wisconsin overnight. Any lingering flurries will likely end by late morning as dry air moves in from the west, and breezy winds will decrease as well. Behind this system, a broad ridge of high pressure will build across the region starting this afternoon. This will lead to a period of very quiet and pleasant weather for the remainder of the work week with plenty of sunshine and light winds.

The primary story for the next several days will be the significant warming trend. We expect high temperatures to consistently reach the 30s and 40s, which is well above the mid- February average for northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. In fact, some locations in east-central Minnesota or northwest Wisconsin could approach 50 degrees. While this will feel like a welcome break from winter, it introduces a daily freeze-thaw cycle. With daytime highs above freezing and overnight lows dropping back into the teens and 20s, any melting snow will refreeze on untreated surfaces like sidewalks, driveways, and decks. This will create slick spots each morning even if the main roads remain mostly dry.

Looking toward the weekend, a dry shortwave will cross the area Saturday and Sunday. While this will bring an increase in cloud cover, no precipitation is expected to reach the ground.

The weather pattern is slated to become much more active by Monday and Tuesday of next week. An upper level low moving across the Rockies will likely spin up a Colorado low pressure system. This system will tap into Gulf moisture, which is something we have not seen with the recent train of drier clippers. While there is still uncertainty regarding the exact track, this has the potential to be a sizable and impactful storm system for the region towards the late week. With the current model data, a surge of warm air ahead of the low may lead precipitation to start as rain before transitioning to a wintry mix and eventually heavy snow as the system moves east.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds expected this afternoon due to high surface pressure over the region. Look for IFR stratus to return from the southwest tonight. Warm temps are expected to moisten the air over central Minnesota. Weak isentropic lift over central Minnesota this evening will generate clouds near BRD and will spread north to INL and HIB overnight. Did not include IFR ceilings in the forecast at this time. Will keep an eye on trends this afternoon and may introduce them later or with the 00Z update. DLH may see IFR ceilings, too, although chances are less than 30%. HYR will also see IFR ceilings overnight into Thursday morning although those clouds will develop over NW WI as opposed to spreading north.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 300 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will ease to 5 to 10 knots by late afternoon. Waves will remain 1 foot or less through Thursday night with no significant marine hazards expected for the next 48 hours under a high pressure that will last the rest of the work week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.