textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-freezing and below-freezing temperatures expected Sunday night. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect.

- Warmer weather starting Tuesday.

- Sparse rain chances this week, but a few sprinkles or showers at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Dry air is working its way in from the west, quickly eroding most of the clouds that brought us rain earlier today. Some low clouds north of the Canadian border may make their way into the Arrowhead for Sunday morning. Otherwise, look for mostly sunny skies out there today with highs in the 50s to a few degrees over 60. Post-cold frontal gusty winds are expected today too, with the strongest gusts expected in the Arrowhead where the pressure gradient will be the tightest.

Tonight, high pressure settles in and it will bring mostly clear skies and light winds. It should be a pretty good radiational cooling night. Of course, it's another night where expected lows are hovering around freezing, so delineating who gets a Frost Advisory versus who gets a Freeze Warning is the challenge. Much of northeast Minnesota away from Lake Superior and north of US-2 has the best chance for seeing some around or just below freezing temperatures (~30-80% chance with the highest chances in the typical low spots). I was generous with Freeze Warnings there. In Northwest Wisconsin, the best chances for a freeze are in interior Iron/Ashland counties and a bit into northern Price county (30-70% chance), maybe sneaking into parts of Douglas/Bayfield/Sawyer/Burnett counties a bit (30-50% chance). I think there is some potential for very slightly colder temperatures than most models suggest, but on the other hand, if winds remain even a little higher than currently forecast (which they could), that could negate cooling a bit. All said, I issued a Freeze Warning for Ashland/Iron counties, but left all others as a Frost Advisory. There could be some minor headline changes today depending on how things look with the next forecast update early this afternoon.

Temperatures should warm up nicely Monday morning with southerly flow developing through the day with warm advection. For now, the forecast is dry, but we'll have to keep an eye on the potential for some showers to develop Monday afternoon and evening. There may be a little instability associated with the warm air advection that could promote a little rain. Otherwise, a low pressure system is looking to pass across/just north of the Canadian Border going into Tuesday, and most of the rain associated with that should be well into Ontario. We should see temperatures warm up into the upper 60s and 70s with a warmer air mass moving in.

A weak cold front Wednesday should drop temperatures just a smidge, but they'll still be pretty warm for this time of year. There could be some stray wraparound showers, but confidence isn't really high at this time. Expect northwest flow Thursday with slightly cooler temperatures, then another warmup with southerly flow again going into the weekend and possibly a little rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for all terminals. Winds are expected to increase out of the west to northwest this morning and persist through the afternoon before decreasing again this evening. Gusts up to 20 kts are expected.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Small Craft Advisories have been expanded into early this evening for most nearshore waters as breezy northwest winds gusting to around 20-30 kt are expected. Expect winds to decrease from west to east gradually today as high pressure moves in. Winds will become lighter Sunday night and eventually switch to southerly Monday afternoon. Breezy south to southeast winds are possible late Monday night into Tuesday, and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Breezy northwest winds are expected to develop today along with dry weather. Min RH is expected to fall to around 35 to 45 percent. Fire weather conditions should be minimal with recent rainfall. A slightly drier day is in the forecast for Monday with RH falling towards 30 percent for parts of northwest Wisconsin. However, winds will be pretty light that day. For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to warm up early in the week, then decrease very slightly by Thursday/Friday. Rain chances will be sparse, and RH is looking pretty low on Wednesday along with gusty northwest winds. Fire weather conditions may be a bit elevated Wednesday and possibly lingering into Thursday and Friday (though wind speeds less a bit late-week).

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021-025- 026-033>038. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018- 019. WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-002- 006>009. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ141- 142-146>148-150. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ143. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ144- 145.