textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures are expected through Tuesday, bringing well above normal temperatures and with little to no chance of precipitation.

- Breezy southwest winds this afternoon and tonight will build waves, creating hazardous conditions for small craft on western Lake Superior.

- Colder temperatures Tuesday night through Thursday will bring the potential for lake-effect snow to portions of northwest Wisconsin. Light snow accumulations may be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT The stratus and fog that developed rapidly around sunrise this morning has finally dissipated for most of the area this afternoon. Had some initial concerns for high temperatures areas around the Iron Range where the stratus has lingered the longest. Where the cloud lingered, temperatures were still in the 30s as of noon, but as soon as the cloud dissipates, temperatures jump quickly into the 40s. There is a more persistent patch of clouds around Grand Marais extending north to Isle Royale, which may be at least partially driven by lake effects, and will be more persistent today. Winds are also picking up, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Tonight, a weak and dry cold front will sweep across the region from northwest to southeast. This frontal passage will shift our winds to the west and northwest, remaining breezy overnight. Due to a lack of deep moisture, no precipitation is expected with this front, though the winds and extra cloud cover will keep low temperatures tonight in the mid to upper 30s.

SUNDAY Sunday will feature another warmer than normal day, despite the overnight cold front. Highs will once again reach the mid 40s to lower 50s. Breezy northwest winds will persist through much of the day. Along the North Shore there may be a few gusts to over 30 mph during the morning and early afternoon hours. While conditions will remain mostly dry, a quick passing disturbance to the north could trigger a few isolated sprinkles in the tip of the Arrowhead during the morning, but no measurable precipitation is expected. Sunday night will be colder with overnight lows dropping into the 20s to low 30s once the winds drop off as a ridge of high pressure builds in.

MONDAY and TUESDAY Another shortwave will move across Canada during this time frame, leaving the area with warmer than normal temperatures and generally dry weather. Highs should climb into the mid 40s to mid 50s both days, with overnight lows ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s. A dry front pushes across the area on Monday, but with the main forcing to our north and little moisture to work with, I only expect some increased cloud cover.

TUESDAY NIGHT through THURSDAY A potent upper level disturbance slides southeast across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, ushering in a much colder airmass to the region. This will cause high temperatures to drop into the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday. Also, the cold pool of 850mb temperatures of -5 to -10C will trigger lake effects with the relatively warm Lake Superior, which is running about 5 to 10 C. We expect lake-effect precipitation will develop for the South Shore snowbelt region of northwest Wisconsin. While this will be a rain and snow mixture during the day on Wednesday, continued cooling will turn the precipitation to mostly snow for Wednesday night into Thursday. While moisture is generally limited with this system, evaporation off the lake can contribute a lot of moisture this time of year, and we may see precipitation amounts higher than currently forecast, which may yield some light snowfall accumulations.

FRIDAY A ridge of high pressure builds into the area for Friday, producing quiet and dry weather which should persist into Saturday. Temperatures to warm back above normal by Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

An area of low stratus that is lingering along the Iron Range as of noon is expected to continue to slowly dissipate, at all of the terminals should be VFR by 20z this afternoon, if not earlier. Southwesterly winds today increase by late this morning with gusts of 15-20 kt through the afternoon. Winds veer westerly to west-northwesterly tonight and remain elevated behind a cold front. LLWS arrives this evening and tonight for most terminals behind the front with westerly to northwesterly winds around 40 knots aloft. The shear will dissipate as surface winds increase Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Southwest winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon will continue to strengthen tonight, turning west tonight and gusting up to 30 knots as a cold front moves across the lake. Waves of 3 to 6 feet this afternoon along the North Shore will shift to the Outer Apostle Island and parts of the South Shore late tonight and Sunday. Winds shift to the northwest on Sunday, remaining gusty through the afternoon before finally weakening Sunday evening. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through Sunday afternoon for all nearshore waters. Conditions will improve significantly overnight Sunday night and Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the weekend and early next week. Minimum relative humidity values will generally range from 40 to over 60 percent, dropping to their lowest points on Tuesday. Southwest winds will gust to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon. Winds will shift to the west tonight and northwest on Sunday behind a cold front. Gusty winds are expected again on Sunday especially along the North Shore where gusts could reach 25 to 35 mph. Dry conditions persist until Tuesday night, when light precipitation chances return to the area.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-141>143- 146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ144-145.