textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues today across the area with temperatures in the mid to high 90s. Temperatures moderate slightly with cooler dewpoints Wednesday - Friday, but Heat Advisories may still be needed.

- Critical fire weather is expected again today for portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota with dry afternoon relative humidity and gusty northwest winds. Areas of smoke are possible for NE MN and NW WI by this evening and overnight into Wednesday.

- Next best chance for precipitation with possible showers and thunderstorms late Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Another hot day is on tap today, as we remain in the clutches of our strong upper level high. 3AM temperatures are beating out the early morning temperatures from yesterday, still in the mid to high 70s for most, and dewpoints have been on the rise. Again, except for on the beach along portions of the North Shore, expect a day of dangerously hot temperatures. High temperatures should be in the mid to high 90s across the Northland. A sinking cold front will push from north to south across the region this afternoon into Wednesday bringing some lower dewpoints, but until that happens dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to low 70s today. An Extreme Heat Warning will continue for the entire area through this evening, except Price County where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. The upper level high should sink south and push east Wednesday - Friday which should push the hottest temperatures into the southern portions of the CWA from the Brainerd Lakes to the I-35 corridor to Price County. While not as hot, a heat advisory may be needed each day through the week. High temperatures into the mid to upper 80s are expected for the region through the week, with temperatures in the 90s possible further south.

As that aforementioned cold front works its way south, there is a very small (10-20%) chance that a few showers and thunderstorms could pop up along it late this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected if storms do form.

Today will be another day of concerning fire weather conditions in northern Minnesota. In this area, the cold front is expected to bring much lower dewpoints in by this afternoon allowing relative humidity to tank, and generate a wind switch bringing winds around to the northwest. Minimum RH of 20-25% is expected along with 10-15 mph winds gusting up to 20 mph in Koochiching, northern St. Louis, and inland Lake and Cook County where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Relative humidity recovery will be poor overnight in northeast MN with maximum RH of maybe 55-60% north of Hwy 2 (should be better for the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI). Another day of very dry relative humidity is possible Wednesday with afternoon RH of 20- 35% across the entire Northland. Northerly winds should be lighter Wednesday.

With that wind switch, smoke from wildfires in northern Minnesota and Ontario may be able to push into NE MN and NW WI. Models which depict smoke dispersion indicate possible near-surface smoke pushing into the area by this afternoon and evening and then following the cold front as it pushes south. MPCA and WI DNR have indicated this could affect air quality, with an Air Quality Alert in effect for the MN Arrowhead for Purple - Unhealthy for Everyone level.

The next best chance for any precipitation still looks like the potential from an upper level shortwave moving across the northern portions of the area sometime Thursday-Friday. While most models bring at least some rain with this disturbance, there are discrepancies on placement and amount. Global model guidance depicts that a heavier band of rain (0.75-1"+) is possible with this event, but it could be somewhere between Lake of the Woods and Thunder Bay and as far north as Dryden, Ontario or as far south as the Twin Ports. So we'll wait and see before proclaiming too much more on that front.

Global guidance suggests that we should stay under northwest to southeast upper level flow with occasional passing shortwaves, which may continue to bring marginal chances of precipitation through the weekend and into next week, but there's nothing significant in the tea leaves at the moment.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Winds turn from southwest to northwest through the TAF period. Smoke from wildfires to our north could begin to impact DLH and HYR late this evening and overnight into Wednesday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Strong southwest winds 10-15kts with gusts to 20 knots are expected to continue across Western Lake Superior for much of today. The strongest gusts are expected in the open waters and we do not anticipate issuing any more Small Craft Advisories for today once the lingering ones expire. Winds switch to the northwest winds this evening into Wednesday morning. Wednesday, expecting fairly light, mostly onshore winds. The chance for any precipitation is low over the next couple of days. With dewpoints remaining fairly high, it would not be out of the question to see some locally dense marine fog form at times today. Additionally, smoke from wildfires in northern Minnesota and Ontario could move over the lake today into Wednesday which may reduce visibility at times.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Today will be another day of concerning fire weather conditions in northern Minnesota. In this area, the cold front is expected to bring much lower dewpoints in by this afternoon allowing relative humidity to tank, and generate a wind switch bringing winds around to the northwest. Minimum RH of 20-25% is expected along with 10-15 mph winds gusting up to 20 mph in Koochiching, northern St. Louis, and inland Lake and Cook County where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. Relative humidity recovery will be poor overnight in northeast MN with maximum RH of maybe 55-60% north of Hwy 2 (should be better for the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI). Another day of very dry relative humidity is possible Wednesday with afternoon RH of 20- 35% across the entire Northland. Northerly winds should be lighter Wednesday.

As that aforementioned cold front works its way south, there is a very small (10-20%) chance that a few showers and thunderstorms could pop up along it late this afternoon and evening. No severe weather is expected if storms do form and rain amounts would be minimal.

With that wind switch, smoke from wildfires in northern Minnesota and Ontario may be able to push into NE MN and NW WI. Models which depict smoke dispersion indicate possible near-surface smoke pushing into the area by this afternoon and evening and then following the cold front as it pushes south. MPCA and WI DNR have indicated this could affect air quality, with an Air Quality Alert in effect for the MN Arrowhead for Purple - Unhealthy for Everyone level.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 305 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Daily high temperatures and daily record warm low temperatures are forecast over the next few days at select Climate sites in the Northland. The current temperature record and year it was observed are in the first column, with the current forecast temperature in the second column.

Site Identifiers and Names KDLH: Duluth Area (measured at Duluth Int'l Airport) KINL: International Falls area (measured at Int'l Falls Airport) KHIB: Hibbing area (measured at Range Regional Airport) KBRD: Brainerd area (measured at Brainerd Regional Airport) KASX: Ashland area (measured at JFK Memorial Airport)

Record High Temperatures:

July 14: Forecast KDLH: 98/1901 96 KBRD: 98/1901 96 KHIB: 95/1983 94 KASX: 94/1980 99

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 14: Forecast KINL: 70/1983 71 KBRD: 72/1901 70 KHIB: 69/1995 69 KASX: 75/1983 72

July 15: KBRD: 72/1931 70

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012. WI...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004-006>008. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ009. MARINE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142.