textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms move through the remainder of the region early this morning with only a few isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder lingering through the day.

- Temperatures around 80 F for inland areas Friday and areawide this weekend.

- Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, Sunday PM when heavy rainfall is possible. Widespread rainfall is forecast into Monday night ending Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Low pressure was located near the North Dakota/South Dakota/Minnesota triple point early this morning with a warm/stationary boundary extending eastward across south-central Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. A line of showers and thunderstorms was observed on radar stretching from northern St. Louis County back into the Brainerd Lakes area. The southern end of this line has a history of being severe as it moved across central Minnesota. This line is expected to push east through the remainder of the early morning hours and exit the Northland shortly after sunrise. There may still be some embedded hail this morning and gusty winds, but the overall severe threat is diminishing. Areas of fog and low stratus are expected to develop following the rain and trends will need to be monitored for a potential Dense Fog Advisory. A few showers may linger through the day today, but no additional significant rainfall is expected once the current area moves out. No changes were made to the remainder of the forecast period with isolated chances for showers and storms through the weekend before a stronger system potentially moves across the Upper Midwest for Labor Day Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

For the rest of the day and into tonight, our primary focus shifts to an advancing mass of strong to severe thunderstorms currently organizing in the Red River Valley. This complex has moved up in time for impacts to the Northland this evening compared to earlier forecasts and is now timed to enter our north-central Minnesota zones around 5 PM this evening. The storms will ride a sharp instability gradient, driving southeastward primarily south of the Iron Range. The main hazards with this line will be damaging wind gusts and large hail up to the size of ping-pong balls, with the potential for wind-driven hail. As the system tracks eastward, the severe threat is expected to drop off rapidly an hour or two after sunset as it approaches the western Iron Range and the Twin Ports region, with the highest damaging wind threat remaining further south along the Interstate 35 corridor. Expect this activity to clear the Minnesota/Wisconsin stateline late this evening into the early overnight hours.

In the wake of the evening convection, lingering low-level moisture and cooling temperatures could produce dense fog tonight. Of particular note is a bank of very low stratus over the North Shore terrain ridge, which could significantly reduce visibilities for the Friday morning commute. Conditions will gradually improve by late Friday morning as ceilings lift and skies slowly clear out into the midday hours. Along the shores of western Lake Superior, strong and persistent northeast winds will continue to generate dangerous rip currents, keeping swimming conditions hazardous. Another Beach Hazards Statement may again by needed for Friday after the current one today expires late this evening.

Heading into the weekend, temperatures will gradually warm back into the upper-70s to low-80s under the influence of transient upper-level ridging. The break in active weather will be relatively short- lived, however, as the next surge of instability builds into the region by Sunday. We will be monitoring the potential for strong thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through overnight. While severe weather is not currently forecast for Sunday late PM, the environment will be characterized by an incredibly moist airmass, raising concerns for heavy rainfall that then lasts in Monday.

This moist, unsettled pattern will linger into Labor Day. Areawide rainfall chances peak on Monday with a 60 to 80 percent probability of precipitation as a low-pressure system lifts from the northern U.S. Plains into southern Manitoba. The precipitation is forecast to slowly clear out of the Northland by Tuesday morning. Looking further ahead, as the precipitation departs and broad troughing re-establishes itself, temperatures are expected to slowly cool to near normal through the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across much of the Northland early this morning as an area of showers and thunderstorms works across the region. Fog and low stratus are expected to develop in the wake of the rainfall, with conditions deteriorating to IFR or lower. VSBYs will improve after sunrise returning to VFR, but the low stratus will likely stick around, especially at DLH. Some areas will improve to MVFR for a time this afternoon before another round of low stratus and fog develops later this evening. Winds will remain under 10 knots across most of the area with stronger easterly winds gusting to 15 to 25 knots at DLH through mid-morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Easterly winds will persist for today and Saturday with gusts to 20 to 30 knots in the western arm and along the North Shore today. With the persistent easterly winds, waves of 2 to 5 feet will will continue in the western arm and along the Outer Apostle Islands into Saturday. Winds diminish a bit for Saturday with gusts up to 15 to 20 knots in the western arm. The current round of Small Craft Advisories lasts into this evening, but may need to be extended with waves likely staying elevated into Saturday. Winds remain easterly for Sunday, but will be lighter with gusts to 10 to 15 knots, highest in the western arm. Stronger winds are expected on Monday, again from the east, ahead of the next system. There is the potential for some gales Monday into Monday night with this system.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Moisture will remain in place through the weekend keeping afternoon RH values above 50%. After this morning's rainfall ends, the next real chance for rainfall arrives Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. This activity may be strong to severe. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Labor Day Monday into Tuesday as a large system moves through the region. This system may bring some hefty rainfall amounts. Winds will remain under 15 mph through the weekend before increasing heading into next week with gusts to 20 to 30 mph possible Monday into Monday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ148-150.