textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of rain showers over parts of NW WI and the MN Arrowhead to finally move east this evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunder possible, mainly for the Arrowhead on Sunday.

- Summer-like heat arrives for Memorial Day and continues through much of next week, with high temperatures in the 80s for most inland locations. Some locations could see low 90s on Tuesday.

- Much of next week will be primarily on the drier and sunnier side, though there will be isolated shower/storm chances at times. Potential for near-critical fire weather conditions will need to be monitored closely each afternoon into early evening next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A low pressure system has moved from the MN/ND border north into southern Manitoba this afternoon. This system produced the widespread, beneficial light rain which fell for much of the area overnight and today. It has also left behind cloudy skies, which has kept our high temperatures on the cool side so far today, with most of Minnesota still in the 50s. Parts of northwest Wisconsin have risen into the 60s. Northeast to east winds on Lake Superior have put truth to the saying about it being "cooler by the lake", where temperatures are still in the 40s. These northeast winds have also produced dangerous rip currents at Twin Ports beaches this afternoon, though these should gradually improve through the afternoon. Showers will exit to the east this evening, with clouds then clearing from west to east overnight. Lingering moisture and calming winds should support at least some patchy fog during the early morning hours on Sunday.

A dramatic shift begins on Sunday as breezy southwest winds bring a rapid warming trend and plenty of sunshine to the region. Inland temperatures will climb dramatically into the 70s to around 80, while locations near Lake Superior stay slightly cooler. With today's low pressure system still in our general vicinity, lake breeze boundaries along with other weak boundaries could trigger some afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms, mainly for the Arrowhead, though I cannot rule it out of northwest Wisconsin. Southern and central Minnesota build up some significant instability during the daytime, and with a warm front draped across southern Minnesota, there may be convection that develops somewhere in that vicinity Sunday night. Some models are bringing shower and storm chances into the forecast area counties Sunday night into Monday morning. I have included the central Minnesota precipitation chances, but we are just going to have to wait and see on anything farther north.

Summer-like heat takes hold for Monday, Memorial Day as warm temperatures surge into the area on southerly winds with deep warm air advection aloft across the area. Expect mostly sunny skies and hot temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s inland, with south to southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph. The heat peaks on Tuesday, which is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week. Inland areas will see temperatures soar into the upper 80s and lower 90s. These forecast high temperatures approach record highs for both days for at least parts of the area, and we are anticipating that much of the area will be in the "Moderate Heat Risk" criteria on Tuesday. Lake Superior will provide localized relief along the shoreline. There is a slight chance of showers and storms mainly for northwest Wisconsin, Monday.

An upper level ridge axis builds over the region for the latter half of the work week into next weekend, with generally southeast surface flow. Temperatures will remain on the warm side and above normal during the week, though they gradually moderate back towards normal. Precipitation chances are generally dry through much of the work week, though there may be some small chances for mostly diurnally driven showers and storms on Wednesday and perhaps later in the week as well.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A few showers linger around KHYR as of 1730z, and these will continue to slide east out of the terminals this afternoon. Additional showers are possible for KINL and KHIB this afternoon. Ceilings are generally MVFR as of issuance time, but should slowly rise through the afternoon hours. We are expecting a clearing line to push in from the southwest after 00z this evening, though confidence in timing is low at this time. After we lose the stratus, the lingering low level moisture may cause fog to develop for several hours overnight before dissipating Sunday morning. Southeast winds in the 5 to 15 kt range will diminish after 21z and become light and variable overnight. Sunday morning southwest winds to pick back up to 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 338 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

East to northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots today are slowly diminishing, allowing waves to also subside. Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the Duluth to Silver Bay zones as of 330 PM this afternoon. Winds and waves to continue to diminish this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Calmer conditions are expected on Sunday and into early next week as a stable marine layer develops, with winds remaining under 15 knots and waves dropping to 1 to 2 feet or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Rainfall from overnight and today along with lingering moisture to keep fire weather concnerns minimal for the rest of today. Sunday will start a rapid warming trend which may bring near- critical fire weather conditions to parts of the area through much of the upcoming work wee. Minimum relative humidity will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range on Sunday over a large portion of the area, along with southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts under 20 mph. Minimum RH values should dip into the 30s for much of next week, with winds generally lighter than Sunday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...None.