textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong clipper system is set to move in from the west this afternoon bringing heavy snow and strong winds. Dangerous travel conditions Thursday late afternoon through midnight across most of the region.

- Another storm system for the weekend may bring some accumulating snow to portions of NW WI.

- Colder temperatures return Monday with highs struggling to get out of the teens. Lake effect snow showers wil be possible for the South Shore.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Current Conditions:

Surface high pressure is currently over the region this morning but will be departing through the day. Our once clear skies will slowly see clouds increase as a potent system advances out of the west. Out ahead of this system we will see southerly winds steadily increasing with time and highs will top out in the 30s.

Winter Storm Thursday Afternoon Through Friday Morning:

Synoptic Set Up:

Surface low pressure is taking form over the Rockies in southern Alberta this morning. Ample moisture is being siphoned from an atmospheric river in the Pacific Northwest with advected precipitable water values clocking in near the 99th percentile of climatology. The low pressure is expected to take a traditional clipper path through the Northland at a fairly quick pace. However, this low will be riding on the nose of a strong upper level jet within the left exit region getting a great boost in divergence aloft allowing for the low to quickly strengthen. Both the GEFS and the NAEFS has this lows strength falling in the minimum of all initialized reforecasts. To better contextualize the strength of this low the return interval is one in every ten years. As this low moves across the Northern Plains it will help drag a bubble of warmer air along its southern edge that will nose into our southern portions of the CWA. As previously mentioned, this system will be fast moving. High impacts in a very short window beginning this afternoon and quickly tapering off overnight.

Impacts:

Snow:

This robust system will be carrying pacific northwest moisture to deposit across the Northland. The exact low track still carries some variance that will likely set up quite the snowfall gradient thanks to the inclusion of some warm air along the southern portions of the low track. QPF plumes reflect this variance as well with clusters still showing variations. However, most are showing values near 0.50" with higher totals over the North Shore. The strongest forcing moves in the late afternoon and evening hours as q vector divergence is at it's peak and lift is maximized within the DGZ. Snowfall rates of 1" per hour will be common place within the warning areas. The North Shore in particular could see 2" per hour rates. Our Warning areas snow characteristic will be more typical around 10:1 to 15:1. However, our areas in the advisories will see some rain mixing in at times which will lower SLR to less then 10:1 leading to wet heavy snow. Overall speed of the system remains impressive with most of the CAMS having activity quickly ramping down after midnight. High impacts for a short window.

Winter Weather Headline Updates:

We opted to let the Winter Weather Watch go for southern Cass into Burnett as we are expecting a little more rain to mix in limiting snow totals. New Winter Weather Advisories were added for northern Cass into northern Aitkin and southern Itasca as well as Washburn and Sawyer. Price was also added to the Winter Storm Warning. The rest of the warnings to include the Blizzard Warnings remain on track.

Wind:

With such an anomalously strong low pressure set to cruise through the Northland you can bet there will be some impressive wind to accompany it. Winds will initially be out of the south and southeast. These winds will initially be on the breezy side with gusts around 30 mph. But the real wind begins in the overnight hours as the low crosses into the Twin Ports. Easterly winds will be enhanced along the North Shore and northwesterly winds will begin to fill in behind the low for the Brainerd Lakes Region. Sounding profiles show 70 mph at just 3000 ft with favorable lapse rates for mixing overnight. As mentioned previously the low track still has a little variance on it so a more southerly track would keep these winds farther south. But the latest trends in EFI continue to trend up so we have opted to upgrade the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for southern Cass and Crow Wing. Areas east have also been added to a wind Advisory as the tight pressure gradient moves across the region.

Friday:

The surface low pressure will have moved into Lake Michigan but the trailing moisture field into the region will still allow for snow chances through the day. Synoptic forcing will be much more limited with snowfall rates largely less then 0.5" per hour. Winds will also be decreasing through the day as the pressure gradient weakens. Northwest flow mixed with the remnant moisture may lead to a gravity wave set up for the South Shore and promote some locally higher snowfall rates until drier air arrives in the evening.

Weekend:

A low out of the Central Rockies is expected to develop and track through the Midwest. Ensemble low tracks are in high agreement with taking this low east into northern IN. This track would lead to a deformation band setting up across southern MN and into central WI. Our area will still see some of this snow action but we are on the northern periphery and not expected to take the brunt of this storm system. As the low tracks north the band will also follow suite leading to NW WI having the best chances of seeing some accumulating snow. Highest snow totals will be along our southern tier counties with a 40-60% chance of seeing 2". The latest NBM path of the system does have Price making into the banded snow for a period leading to better snow chances of 40-60% chance of 4". Timing wise, snow chances are best late Saturday through Sunday.

Early Next Week:

As the weekend low pressure system tracks through to Quebec we will see cold air seep back into the region. 850mb temps of -24C will be back in place by Monday morning leading to some wind chills of -20F. Highs on Monday will also struggle to break into the twenties with widespread teens expected. Lingering moisture combined with cyclonic flow aloft may lead to some light snow or flurries at times. Additionally, with the return of cold air moving over Lake Superior, lake effect snow showers will likely impact the South Shore once again.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions through 21-22Z Thursday afternoon. Winds overnight will be from the northwest to north, at 5-8kts. Winds turn to the southeast Thursday morning, and increase with gusts of 15-18kts possible. Winds continue to increase into the afternoon ahead of an approaching, strong clipper system. Expect conditions to deteriorate rapidly as snow moves in mid to late afternoon into early evening from west to east, with rates becoming moderate to heavy fairly quickly after snow onset. Some rain could mix in for Thursday evening for southern terminals, with the best potential at BRD, though cannot completely rule it out at HYR and DLH either.

The system will bring very strong winds, with surface wind gusts of 30-35kts by Thursday evening and overnight. Blowing snow will be possible, and when combined with heavy snowfall, vis reductions to less than 1/2SM are expected. In addition, there is potential for LLWS at BRD, given strong low level winds.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Active weather inbound for Lake Superior. A clipper will rush through the region tonight providing a boost in winds. Gales are expected across the North Shore and with the low pressure expected to move directly over the Twin Ports expect quite a variation in wind direction depending on your location. Wave heights with these stronger winds are expected to be 9-14 ft on the North Shore with some occasional wave upwards of 19 ft.

Winds briefly taper off across the Lake Friday night. But another system out of the Rockies is expected to move through the Great Lakes region this weekend. Gales out of the North look possible again starting late Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ020-021. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ010>012-018-019-037. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ025-026-035. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ033-034. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ036-038. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ001>004. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for WIZ006. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ007-008. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140>142. Blizzard Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143-144. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ145>148. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Friday for LSZ150. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ150.