textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A pair of clippers this weekend will bring two rounds of light precipitation to the Northland, first tonight and then second late Sunday night through Monday.

- Dry with below normal temperatures through the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

The fairly benign weather pattern persists for the next 7-10 days with an Alaskan Ridge pattern resulting in continued cool Canadian air over the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest, with occasional weak clippers. Temperatures will feel more like early April mid-week with highs in the 40s to 50s, coolest on Tuesday then a gradual warm up late-week before another clipper with a reinforcing round of cooler air arrives next weekend.

Today/tonight/Sunday:

Today/tonight a weakening surface low approaches from the west with a warm front lifting east across Minnesota and Wisconsin resulting in increasing clouds and a round of light rainfall (80-90 percent chance precip amounts are less than 0.05 inches) tonight into Sunday morning. The cold front and associated cooler air aloft is slower to arrive on Sunday, and with clearing skies on Sunday resulting in some surface heating, highs will warm up to near the climatological normal values in the mid 50s to low 60s. Dry both today and Sunday, with the cloud cover/light rain preventing relative humidity values from falling too much below the 25-30 percent range, precluding any fire weather risk. Fairly deep mixing both days as well, with a few gusts approaching 20-25 knots in north-central MN each day.

Sunday Night and Monday:

On Sunday night into Monday a mid-level surface trough diving east across northern Saskatachewan into northern Ontario along a fairly sharp thermal gradient will result in a deepening surface low, over northern Ontario Sunday evening. The associated cold front will move south across northern Minnesota late Sunday night into Monday morning, across northern Wisconsin during the day Monday. The best chance for precipitation associated with this system will be along the international border late Sunday night into Monday morning before a dry slot wedges in aloft, but some light rain showers may persist across the rest of northeast Minnesota as the front moves south. As this front continues to move south, new showers may develop along it on Monday afternoon when it is mainly over east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin, and a bit of instability (on the order of 100-200 j/kg) may result in a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon. As with the Saturday night clipper, overall precip amounts will be very light, with the best odds for more than a few hundredths of an inch being along the international border; elsewhere zero to a few hundredths of an inch of precip total is expected. (The only exception being a few isolated spots where thunderstorms develop, if they do indeed develop.) Given the cool temps, some snow may mix in in far northern Minnesota both Sunday night and again on Monday night, with the best chance for any snow falling over far northern Lake and Cook counties. (No measurable snowfall accumulation.)

Rest of the work week:

Cool and dry Tuesday through Friday with highs in the 40s to mid 50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. Frost/Freeze advisories/warnings will not yet be issued since the growing season has not yet begun... we will probably start closer to mid May given the cool pattern we are in. (Technical details: We typically start once we have hit around 50 Growing Degree Days (GDD Base 50F), which is simply a summation of the degrees the daily average temp is above 50F, with the daily average simply being the high+low divided by two. Based on our current forecast we will barely accumulate more than 5 GDD Base 50F through the next 7 days.)

There may be a very low chance for a light rain shower on a day or two next week, but little in the way of measurable precip. Relative humidty values falling to around 30-35 percent each day will be dry, but near-critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions today at all sites as a clipper approaches from the west today, then light rain showers and MVFR ceilings for some sites in northeast Minnesota late tonight into Sunday morning. For the rest of the afternoon, increasing VFR clouds from west to east with southwest to west winds 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts to 15-20 knots, strongest potential at BRD. Clouds move in and ceilings fall but remain VFR this evening (around 5-8kft ceilings as scattered light rain showers move across all sites, with visibility remaining VFR despite the rain. (No thunderstorms expected.) Late tonight, ceilings gradually fall in wake of the clipper, with MVFR ceilings at DLH, HIB, and INL after 05z/midnight local. Ceilings at INL and HIB as well as across the MN Arrowhead may fall to IFR (500-1000 ft) early Sunday morning for a few hours before clouds erode from west to east late Sunday morning and VFR conditions returning. (Probability for IFR ceilings at DLH is 10-20 percent, greatest 10z- 12z; further north and east probs are closer to 30-40 percent chance.) Winds becoming northwesterly behind the clipper Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A weak clipper tonight into Sunday will result in increasing west wind 5-10 knots Sunday in the wake of the clipper. Late Sunday night into Monday a stronger surface low to the north and associated cold frontal passage will result in stronger southwest to northwest winds Monday, with sustained wind 10-20 knots and a few gusts as high as 25-30 knots at the head of the lake and north of Grand Marais on the north shore. Conditions may be hazardous for small craft Monday, especially at the head of the lake and south shore between Duluth and Port Wing. Gale-force winds are unlikely in the nearshore zone, but there is a brief period of time where a peak gust could reach gale force strength on the north shore (50 percent chance) north of Grand Marais late Sunday night. (Much lower probabilities elsewhere.)

Beyond Monday, high pressure builds in with very weak winds and cooler temperatures through the rest of the work week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Generally dry with near to below normal temperatures through the next 7-10 days, but widespread near critical or critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

Relative humidity values falling to around 30 percent today and Sunday despite a clipper moving through bringing clouds and spotty light rain showers tonight into Sunday morning. Areas of east- central Minnesota and the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin may fall to the 20-25 percent range at their driest. Winds around 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph both today and tomorrow (southwesterly today, northwesterly on Sunday), except in north-central MN (Brainerd Lakes north to the Chippewa National Forest) where a few peak gusts could reach 20-25 mph. Excellent smoke dispersal both days given deep mixing expected and forecast winds. High temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

A stronger cold front arrives late Sunday night into Monday, and while precipitation amounts will again be light (generally less than 0.05"), the airmass following this cold front will bring below normal temperatures and continued dry conditions for the rest of the work week.

For the rest of the week (Tuesday through Friday), relative humidity values fall to around 30-40 percent each day with 5-10 mph northwest winds and good to excellent smoke dispersal anticipated.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.