textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers today, with the best coverage and potential for a few isolated, non-severe storms this afternoon in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

- Temperatures generally slightly below normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and low temperatures in the 40s to around 50F most nights through the middle of next week. For comparison, normal highs are mid to upper 70s and normal lows are upper 40s to mid 50s.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Early - Mid Next Week:

Ensemble and deterministic mid-range model guidance continues to have good agreement in the pattern aloft for early to mid next week as a mid/upper-level trough currently near the coast of British Columbia slides east/southeast through southern Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and the Upper Midwest through the first half of next week. An associated low pressure system also moves through during the same timeframe, with a cold front extending south through the High Plains on Monday, to western MN by Tuesday, and through our region along with the surface low pressure late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this system, northeast surface winds remain likely on Monday before becoming southerly on Tuesday. Temperatures remain pretty consistent in this timeframe in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with slightly cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Warm advection/isentropic ascent ahead of this front should bring in widespread showers and embedded storms from west to east on Tuesday, then along and ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Still early regarding assessment of strong or severe storm potential, including potential, hazards, and favored locations, but more general guidance during this timeframe does paint fairly weak 0-6 km bulk shear and marginal instability late Tuesday, so for now expect mainly weaker storms, but further assessment will be needed as we get closer to early next week. Cyclonic flow behind the departing low/front on Wednesday would also support lingering scattered shower and storm chances.

Late Next Week and Weekend:

Models have come into some loose agreement on a northwest flow pattern aloft for late next week, and then some variation of shortwave mid-level ridging over the Upper Midwest sometime next weekend. This would favor slightly low-end diurnal shower and storm chances for the second half of next week and a gradual warming trend back towards normal temperatures towards next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Low stratus and fog cover most of the Northland this morning, with only sct cigs at BRD. A mix of cig heights, varying from 300ft to around 1kft, will gradually improve over the next 2-3hrs. Cigs will scatter and lift, with VFR conditions at all forecast terminals by mid to late morning. Winds from the northwest at 5-8kts expected through the day, with a gust to 16-18kts possible.

Another round of diurnal scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible for far northeast Minnesota and potentially the South Shore tomorrow afternoon. Given uncertainty in the areal coverage, will not include showers at any forecast terminal at this time.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon as a secondary weak cold front moves through the region. A brief period of moderate rainfall can be expected with stronger showers. Cannot rule out a non- severe thunderstorm or two, mainly along portions of the North Shore, north of Silver Bay.

Southwest winds today around 10 kts or less turn to the northeast on Sunday, remaining at 10 kts or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 408 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Isolated to widely scattered daytime showers are expected today for the Iron Range to Twin Ports and areas across northeast Minnesota, and also in northwest Wisconsin. Can't rule out a few stray, non-severe storms in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin this afternoon to early evening, either. Rainfall amounts will be less than 0.10 inch, but very localized higher amounts are possible if a stronger showers occurs.

Temperatures will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s today then warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s for Sunday into next week for areas away from the immediate Lake Superior vicinity. Minimum RH values will dip to 40-50% across the area today. Winds will also be lighter at 5 to 15 mph out of the northwest today and north to northeast on Sunday, with daytime winds strongest in the afternoon both days. Lower min RH of 30-40% is forecast for Sunday and Monday before increasing Tuesday into mid-week as another round of showers and storms moves into the Upper Midwest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.