textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Bands of moderate to heavy lake effect snow continue to affect the South Shore this morning. Total accumulations of up to 6 inches is possible, and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect.

- Colder temperatures are expected for the much of the work week with additional passing chances of snow with weak clipper systems.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Lake effect snow in combination with the low pressure system as it moves into southern lower Michigan this morning. The bands are bringing enhanced snowfall rates to most of the South Shore this morning, with northeast low level winds and lake surface temperatures in the low 40s. I expect the bands to persist through sunrise this morning, even as the winds back more northerly to shift the bands farther east along the South Shore. We currently have a Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM for all four South Shore counties, and depending on where those bands are will have to make a decision about which counties to extend and how far into Sunday morning. The lake effect bands should be east of Iron county no later than noon, though. Returning to the low pressure system to our southeast, it is adding to the snowfall over northwest Wisconsin and east-central Minnesota early this morning. This too should shift east out of the forecast area during the morning hours. For now the 12z expiration time of the advisory for Price county still seems appropriate, but will have to see how things look over the next couple hours. Elsewhere, we remain in cyclonic flow at the low levels most of today, that together with the steep low level lapse rates induced by the pool of cold air moving into the area at the mid levels, should get some convective-y snow showers going from mid morning through most of the afternoon. It does not appear we have a significant risk of snow squalls at this time. Overall, it will be rather chilly today as compared to last week, with highs only in the upper teens to mid 20s. Tonight there are some good indications we should get some clearing of the cloud cover, that together with the fresh snow, will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits to around zero tonight into Monday morning. A ridge of high pressure will also slide across the area, which will help with some lighter wind speeds overnight.

This upcoming work week will have some rather active weather, with broad upper level troughing over the Upper Midwest region which will allow a series of shortwaves to pass across the Northland. These will bring periodic chances for snow through the week, but none of these systems look terribly impactful, bringing light snowfall accumulations. There is low confidence in timing for these, so pops remain relatively low for now. We are also looking at near to below normal temperatures for all of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

MVFR ceilings with flurries are expected to continue through this afternoon. Some heavier snow showers are possible at times at HIB and INL which could produce IFR visibilities. Ceilings should generally improve to VFR through this evening and overnight. Northwest winds calm overnight and then become southwesterly into Monday morning. Some gusts of 15-20 knots are possible by late morning Monday.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 330 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

North-northeast winds early this morning are expected to back into the northwest through Sunday morning. Observed gusts this morning have been approaching 30 kts, but should diminish through the course of the day today. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through today before both winds and waves diminish later today and tonight. Winds to back into the southwest Monday morning and increase again before diminishing once again Monday night. The winds may be strong enough to cause building waves and hazardous conditions for Small Craft once again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 140>142-146>148-150.