textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing winter storm continues to bring heavy snow, strong winds, and blowing snow to the Northland this morning. Snowfall will end from west to east this morning, with lingering light snow possible across the Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin into the afternoon.

- Confidence is increasing in a strong Colorado low bringing another round of moderate to heavy snowfall across our south late Saturday into Sunday.

- Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will remain below freezing, with wind chills in the -20F to -10F range both Monday and Tuesday mornings. - Another, weaker system is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, then a warm up late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The surface low is now moving into northwest Wisconsin, with moderate to heavy snowfall wrapping around the north and east sides of the system. Heaviest snowfall is expected through the morning hours, particularly along the North Shore and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Through 7 AM, an additional 5-8 inches is possible along the North Shore and an additional 3-5 inches along the South Shore snowbelt. Lighter snowfall extends back to the Red River Valley, with an additional 1-2 inches possible across the western extent of the Northland. Given the tightened pressure gradient around the quick-moving surface low, surface wind gusts are gusting to 30-40mph. Latest guidance suggests an increase in gusts remains possible across the Brainerd Lakes region before sunrise.

With northwesterly flow through the afternoon, snow showers will linger across portions of northwest Wisconsin through the afternoon, with an additional snowfall 1-3 inches of snowfall possible. The only headline changes this morning is to extend the Winter Storm Warning for Ashland and Iron counties through 7PM Today.

Winds will gradually diminish through the day and skies clear from west to east, as slightly colder air arrives behind the exiting system. Weak high pressure moves across the area tonight, with light winds and lows falling into the single digits and lower teens. The Northland will see only a brief break in this otherwise active weather pattern, as the next system arrives Saturday afternoon.

A large Colorado low moves through the Midwest Saturday night and Sunday, with recent model guidance suggesting a slight northern shift in the low track. Moisture content is high with this system with significant forcing on the north side of the surface low. A significant snowband is expected from central Minnesota across Wisconsin, that will pivot northwestward into portions of the Northland Saturday night and Sunday. Given the changes in latest model guidance, expected snowfall totals for the southern extent of the forecast area, generally south of a line from Brainerd to Duluth, have increased. Snow probabilities for portions of northwest Wisconsin suggest there is a 50-80% chance of more than 12 inches of snow across central Sawyer County northeastward to southern Iron County. A Winter Weather Watch will be required for our southern tier of counties, possibly as far west as southern Cass County, and as far north as southern St. Louis County. These headlines will be addressed later this morning once most of the area is clear of the ongoing storm.

Colder air arrives behind the weekend system with wind chills dropping to 10 to 20 degrees below zero for both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Global models continue to hint at a weaker clipper moving through Tuesday into Wednesday followed by a warm up as a warm air mass moves over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the late week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Strong, but quick-moving, low pressure is moving through the region tonight, with widespread accumulating snow continuing across the Northland through early Friday morning. Heaviest snowfall rates occurring from HIB to DLH to HYR to begin this forecast period, reducing visibility to LIFR at times. Strong winds, in excess of 35kts, will further reduce vis due to blowing snow. Light snowfall will continue for a few hours as the system exits to the east, and already seeing lighter snow rates and improving vis at BRD.

The surface low is currently centered just to the southwest of BRD, and will track to the east through the morning. This will allow winds, initially from the east and northeast to back to the north and northwest overnight. Winds remain strong at 15-20kts, with gusts up to 40-45kts.

Cigs will generally be around or below 1kft, with cigs falling to 500ft at times. Cigs improve after sunrise to MVFR heights, and then VFR through Friday afternoon. Winds ease slightly through the afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Dangerous conditions continue early this morning on Western Lake Superior. Strong easterly flow will produce gales up to 45 knots with isolated storm force gusts possible. Waves will build to 9 to 14 feet, peaking around 16 feet on the North Shore before sunrise. Heavy snow will continue along the North Shore through this morning, along with these easterly gusts. Winds shift to the northeast over the next few hours, then to the north and northwest through the day. These northwest winds will maintain lake- effect snow for the South Shore through this afternoon. Winds will then decrease by Friday night below 20 kts.

Another strong system this weekend will bring another round of northeast winds with gales possible across western Lake Superior throughout the day Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020-021- 037. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ010>012-018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ025- 026-035. High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ033-034. Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ036-038. WI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001- 002-009. Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ006. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ007-008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>144-150. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ145>148.