textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A heavy band or two of lake effect snow are expected to impact areas around the head of the lake and across the South Shore this evening and overnight. Accumulations of 1 to 6 inches are expected and a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Southern St. Louis, Carlton, Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron Counties.

- Light to moderate snow is expected elsewhere across the Northland this evening and overnight. A dusting to a couple inches is possible, highest amounts in NW WI. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Price County.

- Colder temperatures into the work week with additional passing chances of snow with weak clipper systems.

UPDATE

Issued at 332 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

With webcam visibilities dropping to < 0.5 miles in the seeder- feeder lake effect enhancements, opted to include Southern St. Louis and Carlton in a Winter Weather Advisory. With the current snowfall rates under these blobs, could see localized amounts in excess of 3 inches. These heavier snow bands should slowly shift south of the Twin Ports after 9 PM.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

As expected, lake effect snow bands pushed out into Western Lake Superior overnight, to then turn and start to pushing onshore through today, with an additional synoptic boost of moisture from the larger low pressure system to our south. However, not quite expected was just how far north this band managed to get, with a convergence zone band affecting areas along the North Shore near Silver Bay/Little Marais through this morning. A secondary area of lake effect snow (LES) has developed towards the head of the lake early this afternoon with winds turning northeast from Two Harbors to Port Wing and southwest, along with synoptic moisture possibly leading to a bit of a seeder-feeder situation amplifying the firehose of snow into the Twin Ports and down the St. Louis River valley.

We're finally seeing some of the winds further out in western Lake Superior turn ENE early this afternoon, which as those pick up and push onshore, should help the more northern LES convergence band sweep down to the Twin Ports and then onto the South Shore. Especially as this band overlaps with the best northeast winds and synoptic moisture/support it should be able to produce some heftier snowfall rates for the South Shore from Douglas to Iron County as the winds go from northeast to northwest. Hi-res models are still varying run to run on exactly where along the South Shore the heaviest bands of accumulation end up setting up, but I have generally good confidence in the higher terrain seeing 2-5", with localized amounts in excess of 6" possible. As winds turn northwest and the lake effect bullseye focuses back on northern Iron County, there is about a 20-25% chance for 8"+ for areas from Upson to Hurley along Hwy 77. A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect for the South Shore beginning at 6pm tonight through the overnight hours.

Elsewhere, light to moderate synoptic snow has blossomed early this afternoon as the low pressure system moves over Iowa/Illinois and has pushed enough moisture into the Northland for saturation. Areas of possible light accumulation of a couple tenths of a inch have expanded across much of the Northland, with amounts of an inch or more expected along the I-35 corridor and east, with the highest amounts outside of the South Shore being 2-5" in Price County, where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Some light lake effect snow is possible again into Sunday morning coming off of the large inland lakes as well.

Even colder air is expected to be pulled into the Northland behind this system bringing highs in the teens and lows below zero for the beginning of the work week. Through next week, global models are in decent agreement that we'll remain under northwest flow with a low over Hudson Bay. This could spit off some little shortwaves that have the potential to bring some clipper type systems to the Northland with additional light snow accumulations. The first looks to be Monday evening into Tuesday but this system is fairly moisture- starved so accumulations would likely be minimal. Global models highlight more chances for light snow Tuesday night- Wednesday and then something towards the end of the week as well. While most of these systems don't currently look like they would bring warning level amounts of snow, we do look to just keep slowly adding light to moderate amounts every couple of days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Flying conditions across our TAF sites will be poor due to light to moderate snow and heavy lake effect snow bands. Visibility will drop to IFR or lower at times and ceilings will likely fall to IFR in the heavy snow bands. The snow and lowest visibilities are expected to pass through most terminals tonight (except KINL which may be too far north though may encounter some inland lake effect) and taper off as winds become more northwesterly on Sunday. Winds gust to 25 knots early Sunday morning. Expect conditions to gradually improve to VFR by Sunday afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 248 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Northeast winds become dominant across Western Lake Superior through the rest of this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds of 15-20 knots and gusts up to 25 knots forcing waves of 2 to 6 feet are expected, especially for the South Shore to Saxon Harbor. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds become northwest overnight into Sunday which are likely to remain strong at least through midday Sunday. Gusts in excess of 25 knots are expected and extensions of Small Craft Advisories are possible. There is a 10-40% chance for some gales along the North Shore Sunday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ037. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-140>142- 146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ143>145.