textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and maybe a tornado are potential hazards.

- Temperatures trend slightly warmer into the weekend and early next week.

- Mainly dry weather Thursday-Saturday, then more rain chances Sunday and into next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Clouds and fog abound this morning, and that will continue through the morning and potentially into the afternoon with warm air advection ongoing and plenty of moisture already in place. The main forecast update this morning is a developing and conditional severe weather threat for this afternoon and evening. An upper level trough and a cold front will pass through this afternoon and evening, and as of now, the timing of that front is such that it will be passing through during peak diurnal heating today. Strong warm air advection will allow high temperatures to get potentially pretty warm in northwest Wisconsin if we can see some clearing this afternoon. Upper 60s are expected, and a few places could crack 70. If this clearing takes place, we will have some instability to work for thunderstorms. This could around or slightly higher than 1000 J/kg. A potent low-level jet will be in place, and with south to southeast flow at the surface and southwesterlies aloft, there would be an ideal amount of streamwise vorticity available for ingestion into updrafts ahead of the cold front. This therefore introduces a threat for tornadoes. If we get that degree of surface-based instability, large hail slightly larger than quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible as well. Most model soundings show an inversion sticking around through the afternoon within that ideal veering wind profile just below the low-level jet. Thus, the situation described above will happen only if all the ingredients can come into place, most notably getting rid of most or all of the stratus in northwest Wisconsin to allow for good diurnal heating.

As far as storm organization goes, the threat for any supercells will probably be pretty limited to northwest Wisconsin where that potential for clearing out stratus is greatest. Elsewhere, showers and storms will develop in the vicinity of the cold front and likely organize to a quasi-linear structure. If we end up with a case where stratus sticks around into the afternoon, we will simply lose the surface-based potential of these storms and get rid of the tornado and wind threat for the most part, and the hail threat will be reduced but non-zero.

The timing of severe weather will be somewhat limited because the sun goes down early this time of year. Storms may develop mid-afternoon, giving a ~3-4 hour window at most for the most intense storms. After that, their intensity should decrease as they move east, and they should clear out of the area before midnight.

The rest of the forecast is largely unchanged. Please see the previous discussion with more details on that.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

For the rest of the day, the widespread rainfall from early this morning has largely moved through the area. However, scattered showers are still expected to linger into this afternoon for far northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, which will squeeze out a few more hundredths of an inch of precipitation. As the rain showers depart, patchy fog is expected to linger in their wake. This will be particularly noticeable around the Brainerd Lakes area into the evening. Cloud cover will remain in place tonight with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s across the Northland.

Our active weather pattern continues right into Wednesday as another low pressure system and mid-level wave approach from the Dakotas. This will spread another round of widespread showers across the region. Instability that will accompany these showers tomorrow will lead to embedded thunderstorms during the Wednesday afternoon and evening hours. Though the overall chances for severe weather remain low, some communities could see small, pea-sized hail for a brief period sometime in the late afternoon. South to southwest winds will also be quite breezy ahead of this system, bringing warm air into the region from the south and temperatures will be into the upper 50s and mid 60s for most locations.

The rain comes to an end late Wednesday night as a cold front sweeps through, leading to a quiet end to the work week. High pressure will build in for Thursday and Friday, bringing a return to plentiful sunshine across the region. With northwest winds expected behind the departing system, temperatures will be a bit cooler on Thursday, with highs topping out in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Pleasant conditions will hold through Friday, with high temperatures moderating back into the mid 50s to lower 60s under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

Heading into the weekend, the pattern becomes active once again. Global models point to a deepening upper-level trough moving into the central United States, bringing broad chances for precipitation to the Northland from Saturday through Monday. While the exact timing and placement of these weekend showers remain a bit uncertain, multiple rounds of rain are possible. Despite the clouds and rain, temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the weekend. Highs will consistently reach the mid 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will comfortably stay above freezing, generally resting in the upper 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 648 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail this morning. There may be some brief improvement this afternoon at HYR. Visibility will occasionally fall into MVFR with areas of fog. This afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and pass through from west to east. Some strong to severe storms may be possible, especially at BRD/HYR. Following the thunderstorms, expect a wind shift as a cold front passes through. Winds will switch to westerly, and will become breezy overnight tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Expect south to southeast winds to develop this morning, then shift to easterly during the afternoon ahead of a cold front. Expect some gusts to 15 kt. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through this evening. A few storms could contain small hail. Winds will switch to westerly later this evening behind the cold front, and winds remain westerly through Thursday. Expect speeds to strengthen Wednesday night and gusts to around 25 kt will be prevalent later tonight through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore zones. Winds decrease and become northwesterly Thursday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain and thunderstorms are expected today. Totals around a half inch are expected for most, but higher totals perhaps slightly in excess of an inch will be possible in thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected Thursday with some breezy northwest winds. Min RH may fall to around 40 percent for some places. Even drier weather is expected Friday with Min RH approaching 30 percent in northwest Wisconsin, but winds will be lighter. Another dry weather day for the most part on Saturday, then rain chances return around Sunday. Overall, fire weather conditions should be minimal through the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121- 140>148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ150.