textproduct: Duluth

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Current Conditions/This Morning:

Satellite this morning shows upper level clouds filtering in from the west as a weak surface low moves across southern Saskatchewan. Warm air advection will be ramping up with decent isentropic forcing for ascent already in place over the Northland. The RAP shows some saturation at 290K moving across the region this morning with high res guidance suggesting some snowfall. However, this snowfall will have a difficult time getting to the surface as it has 9000 ft of dry air to filter through, and given the pace of the wave moving through we have limited PoPs to around 20%.

Afternoon:

This afternoon the aforementioned surface low moves into Lake of the Woods bringing a robust low level jet in from the southwest. As the inversion breaks this morning we will see some areas in the Brainerd Lakes region gusting to 35 mph. Winds speeds will remain enhanced through the day but will gradually decrease through the afternoon before a sharp cut off in the evening when another inversion denies further momentum transfer. The flow out of the southwest will promote rapid drying with soundings showing dry air up through the entire column. The tricky part of the forecast is how quickly the clouds crossing this morning will depart. If clouds linger we may not achieve the Min RHs that we currently have forecasted. The HRRR continues to be the most aggressive with Min RHs dropping into the teens for a few locations. There was some consideration for addling Northern Itasca into the Red Flag Warning but, the strongest winds look to move out of the county before the driest conditions occur.

Sunday:

Much quieter Sunday as surface high pressure moves across Ontario. Winds won't be as breezy as Saturday so fire weather concerns are lower but not completely zero. Clouds will be decreasing through the day and highs will soar into the low 60s across our south. It will be a classic cooler by the Lake day with a sharp temperature gradient as you approach Lake Superior.

Next Week:

A few upper level troughs look to move across the Northern Plains which will promote an active weather pattern. Activity could ramp up as soon as Monday afternoon as a baroclinic zone spanning across the Canadian Prairies dips into Northern MN. Better chances may arrive late Monday into Tuesday as a low pressure ejects out of the Rockies. Ensemble low clusters are showing some better agreement with taking the track through either IA or southern MN. Still a bit of a large spread to be able to narrow down specifics, especially when considering we will have to contend with some cool air to the north. Overall, its looking like a typical Spring time pattern where all types of precipitation are on the table and depending on the low track we could get some rumbles of thunder across NW WI.

This first system looks to depart late Tuesday with some lingering northwest flow and cool air flowing across Lake Superior to promote some lake effect showers. High pressure sets up for mid week but the quiet conditions look to be brief. Cluster analysis shows a deeper upper level trough moving across the Rockies for the weekend which will once again prompt more precipitation for the Northland.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Mostly clear skies to start the forecast period. High clouds will start to move in from the west later this morning but we will maintain VFR conditions. High res guidance brings a quick moving wave of snow later this morning, but not confident this will be able to reach the surface with all the dry air currently in place. After this wave exits expect a very windy day with gusty southwest winds. Skies will clear out as we head into the afternoon hours. Once the sunsets we will see winds start to subside.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 153 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Southwest winds will increase around noon today with a gusts around 20 kts. There may be a few gusts to around 25 kts for a few hours but winds quickly start to diminish by 3 PM. Given the short duration of these winds we have opted to not hoist Small Craft Advisories at the moment. If wind trends start increase the head of the Lake and the South Shore would likely be the location with the strongest winds. Light winds overnight will slowly turn to out of the northeast for Sunday. The next hazardous period across the Lake will be Monday when the northeast winds increase to upwards of 25 kts.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ025-026-033>038. WI...None. MARINE...None.