textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Snowfall associated with a clipper is moving into the Northland from the west now, and will continue spreading eastward this afternoon and evening. Greatest accumulations have shifted southward, with less than 2 inches now expected north of US-2.

- A period of several hours of heavy snow with rates around 1 inch per hour is expected late this afternoon through this evening.

- Cold temperatures and additional chances of precipitation are expected later this week into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

SUMMARY OF HEADLINE CHANGES:

- Winter Weather Advisory for central St.Louis and southern Lake County areas has been cancelled.

- Winter Weather Advisory for Itasca County remains in effect.

- Winter Storm Warning for Carlton/South St. Louis, Douglas, Sawyer, and Price counties was downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. - Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for Cass, Aitkin, Crow Wing, Pine, Burnett, and Washburn counties.

- Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties.

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Snowfall associated with the second clipper of the week has spread across portions of the Northland, with snow falling from the Brainerd Lakes region southeastward to the I-35 corridor. This area will continue to spread eastward this afternoon and evening, with snowfall ending early Wednesday morning with lake effects showers continuing through Wednesday for portions of northwest Wisconsin. The main axis of snowfall has shifted southward with the latest model guidance, leaving little to no accumulation north of US2. Several adjustments were made to headlines to reflect the southward shift in snowfall totals. See those changes above.

The surface low associated with the clipper is now over southeast ND and will continue diving quickly to the southeast, crossing into southern WI tonight. The better forcing will clip our southwest and southern counties through this evening. Steep lapse rates aloft and saturated profiles through the column will allow for moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates of 1-1.5in per hour possible. There will likely be a swath of 5-6 inches somewhere from southern Cass County to Burnett County, and it might be a very narrow axis, with a dropoff northward to the US-2 corridor, where 1-3 inches is expected from Itasca County southeastward to the Twin Ports. Drier low level air behind yesterday's clipper has remained over the Arrowhead this afternoon, and coupled with the shift southward of the better forcing, this will further limit snowfall across the BWCA and Arrowhead.

Winds have been slower to increase across the Northland and western Lake Superior, with the slightly weaker low and pressure gradient, and remain weak this afternoon. An increase in winds is expected as the surface low moves into west central MN this evening, but there will be less time for North Shore lake effect bands near the head of the lake. While it is still possible, winds will quickly turn to the northeast and then north, limiting the potential for enhancement from the Twin Ports up the North Shore. The snowfall totals in those area were adjusted downward this afternoon.

Winds become northerly quickly early Wednesday, as the low is well to our south and mid level winds become northwesterly. Snowfall associated with the clipper will exit to the south and east, but could see lake effect showers on the South Shore linger through the day. A lobe of forcing within the backside of the upper trough will shift over western areas tomorrow, and light snow showers or flurries will remain possible through the day. There might an additional half inch of accumulation across the Brainerd Lakes area during the morning.

Colder air arrives behind this clipper for Wednesday and Thursday, with temperatures 10-12 degrees below normal. Another clipper will bring light snowfall to the area Thursday afternoon into Friday, with light accumulations. More significant impact for the end of the week is the much colder air arriving for the weekend, with temperatures 20-25 degrees below normal. Highs on Saturday will likely remain below 0F, with wind chills in the -25 to -30F range. Cold weather headlines will likely be needed.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

A Clipper is currently bringing snow to the region this evening, with heaviest snowfall occurring from the Brainerd Lakes to Spooner. Within this area of heaviest snowfall, LIFR visibility has been observed with LIFR to IFR cigs. Farther north, conditions have been varying between MVFR to IFR. As this system moves east this evening into tonight, expect conditions to vary between LIFR to MVFR as snow continues. As the system exits, conditions will be improving to VFR for most locations by late Wednesday afternoon. Additional light snow impacting north-central MN tomorrow afternoon will keep MVFR cigs over KBRD through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 242 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back northeasterly and strengthen this evening and will become hazardous for small craft. Gales of 35 to 40 knots are forecast from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where a Gale Warning is in effect. Small Craft Advisories go into effect at 10 pm tonight for the remainder of the waters. Wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected. There is a 30-40% change of Gales spreading southward to the Outer Apostles and South Shore zones after midnight tonight, and the Gale Warning might need to be expanded. Additionally, waves will build to 3 to 7 feet over the southwest arm and along the waters of the South Shore. As the clipper departs on Wednesday winds will back northwesterly and diminish. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for portions of the North Shore from late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Cold air moving over the high terrain will likely lead to katabatic winds from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. Wind and waves will then relax for Thursday before increasing again on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ018- 026. Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ025- 033>036. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ037. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ038. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ001. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ006-007. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for WIZ002>004-008-009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ121-142>148-150. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140-141.