textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warming conditions continue into the work week. Several days with high temperatures in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows above freezing are possible mid-week.

- Chances for rain return Wednesday evening into Thursday.

- Another system next weekend could bring chances for rain and/or snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY:

Forecast remains generally on track. Warm air advection aloft continued early this morning which will have an impact on forecast high temperatures today. Readings will top out in the low to upper 40s. A few spots may hit 50 degrees, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. These values are 8 to 15 degrees above normal for mid-November. Winds will turn southerly at 5 to 10 mph as surface high pressure drifts off to the east. Cloud cover will increase tonight which may help buoy low temps in the middle 20s to middle 30s. A tightening surface pressure gradient will work to keep winds in the 3 to 8 mph range overnight, which will in turn keep the boundary layer mixed. If clouds and light, but not calm, winds do not arrive, the current forecast lows will end up around 10-15 degrees too warm.

Temperatures nudge a little warmer on Monday with highs in the middle 40s to low 50s, around 10-20 degrees above normal. The warmer than normal trend will continue through the rest of the week.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY:

A pronounced pattern change will begin Wednesday. A longwave trough over the western US will propagate eastward into the Plains. Poleward moisture transport will increase over the Mississippi River Valley to around the 90th percentile of climatology with values ranging from 0.5-0.9 inches by early Wednesday evening. Surface low pressure will develop over the northern Plains and propagate northeastward into northwest Ontario during that time. Precipitation chances across the Northland will tick upward slightly. There is expected to be considerable dry air in the lower 1/3 of the atmosphere which will evaporate light precipitation. Forcing for ascent will be maximized near and north of the low track with areas north of US-2 seeing the greatest chance for measurable rain. With the warm air, clouds, and precipitation, both Wednesday and Thursday have a potential to set new warm low temperature records at a few of our climate sites. See the Climate section below for more details.

That system scoots northeastward out of our area Thursday night with ridging building over the region briefly. Friday will remain above normal temperaturewise. A potentially more substantive storm system will take shape over the Plains Friday and move toward our region for Friday night and Saturday, possibly lingering into next Sunday.

The overall confidence in a more active and progressive pattern is high. However, details regarding precipitation timing, amounts, and other aspects encompass a wide range of possibilities. Some of the ensemble members are painting a swath of accumulating snow over portions of the Northland from that system. The locations are quite diverse among the membership, so confidence is low overall. That being said, there will be ample cold air upstream over the Canadian Prairies and a few of the members of each family yielded a stripe of snow with yesterday morning's run, too. Definitely a situation which bears monitoring over the next few days to see if some consistency takes shape. Temperatures are expected to trend closer to normal by next Sunday with highs in the low 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Mainly light south winds occur as well, with some gusts to 20 knots in the central Minnesota region Sunday midday and afternoon. LLWS is expected to develop at INL after 16.03Z and should spread farther south and east after 16.06Z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 234 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Surface high pressure will gradually slide eastward starting today. Winds will remain on the lighter side around 5-15 knots. Tonight southwesterly winds will strengthen and increase to around 25 knots across much of western Lake Superior. Wave heights will also increase to greater than 4 ft along the North Shore by early Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories will eventually be needed. Warm air advection Monday and Tuesday will eventually lead to less mixing over the waters and a trend toward lower wind speeds and gusts. Winds diminish Wednesday before potentially strengthening again Thursday. Another period of hazardous conditions may develop next weekend as a stronger low pressure system moves through the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

No fire weather concerns. Quiet weather conditions continue today. Southwest winds will increase on Monday with a few gusts around 25 kts. However, our min RHs are expected to remain above 45% through the period. Rain chances return late Wednesday and Thursday, although widespread wetting rain appears unlikely. A better chance for widespread precipitation will arrive next weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 234 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Record warm low temperatures are possible at several sites later this week. The table below includes current record warm low temperatures and forecast 24-hour minimum temperatures as of Sunday AM forecast:

Wed, November 18: ----------------- KINL: 34/2015 Forecast:35 KBRD: 43/2012 Forecast:42

Thu, November 19: ----------------- KDLH: 39/1982 Forecast:36 KBRD: 37/2007 Forecast:37 KASX: 41/2024 Forecast:39

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.