textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Continuing light snow with a few snow squalls possible today, along with moderate to heavy lake-effect snow along the South Shore through Saturday.

- Another clipper system on Sunday may bring an inch or two of snow along with blustery winds.

- Bitterly cold air moves in this weekend, and a very cold morning with wind chills approaching 30 to 40 below is expected Monday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 623 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A somewhat narrow and persistent area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow is ongoing, stretching across St. Louis County into Douglas, Bayfield, and Washburn counties this morning. Models have been struggling to keep up with this until the most recent runs. Snow totals already this morning within the snow have ranged from around 3 to 6 inches, and we could conceivably see locally 1 to 3 inches in addition. Central St. Louis and eastern parts of southern St. Louis County, over into lakeshore Lake County, and then into Douglas/Bayfield counties will be most likely to see some continuing moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall rates this morning for several more hours. Therefore, Winter Weather Advisories have been extended into parts of St. Louis and Lake counties through noon this morning. Additional snow showers are expected to develop both within and outside of counties with headlines this morning, but they should be a bit less organized than this current area of snow is.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A somewhat organized area of light to moderate snow is affecting a good portion of the region this morning. This is associated with broad synoptic lift as an upper-level trough passes through along with steep (~7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates that have been supporting some quasi-convective-looking radar echoes. Expect this main area of snow to drift southeast through the morning, dropping generally an inch or two of additional snow.

Another more organized area of snow may impact the region through today as a strong cold front passes through, which right now is located over northwest Minnesota. Gusty winds will accompany strong frontogenesis, and thus the threat for snow squalls that could briefly drop visibilities to or below a quarter mile with the combination of falling and blowing snow will be possible today (about 20% chance). There will be plenty of light snow ongoing at times as well, so the nature of any snow squalls that could cause major impacts (i.e. going from completely clear conditions to heavy snow) will probably be rather limited. Nevertheless, there is at least a small chance for those conditions.

Otherwise, for most of the region, expect occasional light snow or snow showers. Additional accumulations through tonight up to an inch or two are expected.

Lake-effect snow on the South Shore is expected to gradually ramp up through this afternoon as winds become northwesterly and cold air starts to move in with the cold front. The heaviest snow there is expected tonight through Saturday morning. No changes to headlines with this. There is a bit of a trick that could change the forecast a bit, and that's wind direction and localized convergence. If winds retain a more westerly component tonight, heavier accumulations may end up more across the border in the UP. Winds will probably waffle around a bit though so that northern Iron County gets some heavier bands at times. Therefore, the Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect. Further west, a combination of light lake- effect and gravity wave enhancement could drop up to 4-5 inches locally, so the Winter Weather Advisories will remain in effect there through Saturday morning.

Cold air moves its way in on Saturday and temperatures fall below zero Saturday night. There is pretty good agreement on another clipper system passing through on Sunday. Models are consistent on a widespread ~inch of snow with locally higher amounts along the South Shore. We'll see how that pans out with such a cold air mass in place. An inch of snow may be on the high end of potential with this one.

Bitterly cold air moves in Monday night, and we'll be left with a tight pressure gradient behind the clipper as it departs. So, we'll be looking at the combination of 20-30 mph wind gusts along with temperatures falling into the teens below zero (at least on the Minnesota side). Downsloping winds along the North Shore could be higher than 30 mph. With that, we should see wind chills falling as low as -30 to -35 for most places, and perhaps to around -40 for parts of northeast Minnesota (especially the Arrowhead). Cold weather headlines will likely be needed.

We should have another cold Tuesday morning, but at least with lighter winds as high pressure passes by to the south. We could still see wind chills down to -20 to -30 though.

Our clipper pattern looks to remain through the rest of the week with potential for one to pass through around Wednesday, potentially bringing a little break from the bitter cold, but also maybe a little light snow. Temperatures are looking to remain on the cold side in general going into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions are occurring across most of the region late this morning into the early afternoon as a cold front sweeps through. Strong northwest winds behind this front may lead to blowing snow, especially as the snow that fell earlier today was fairly light in snow character. Additional snow showers are expected to continue through tonight into Saturday. Snowfall rates will generally be light, the exception being near the South Shore of Lake Superior. Lake effect snowfall will be moderate to heavy along the South Shore through the period, mostly anticipated to remain north of KHYR. MVFR to IFR conditions are likely to linger through Saturday morning, especially for terminals farther east.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

As a cold front passes through today, winds are expected to become northwesterly and gusty. Gusts to around 25 kt are expected to develop and persist today through most of Saturday. Waves will build to around 4 to 6 feet along the South Shore as well. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all nearshore zones (except Chequamegon Bay) with this update.

Winds briefly lessen Saturday night ahead of another clipper system. A stronger cold front should bring more strong winds and probably also gales Sunday night through Monday morning. While gales may subside Monday morning, breezy conditions may prevail through Monday night, keeping conditions hazardous for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ019-020- 037. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for WIZ002-003. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Saturday for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CST Saturday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Saturday for LSZ141>148- 150. Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.