textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory continues for Iron County, WI. Expect an additional 2-5" through midnight tonight.

- Widespread flurries today with some more robust snow showers possible in the afternoon. These snow showers may be accompanied by brief reductions in visibilities and a rush of wind.

- Cooler temperatures persist through Monday. Wind chills ten to twenty below will be possible Monday morning.

- Clipper system for Tuesday will bring widespread snow chances to most of the Northland. The North Shore and Arrowhead will receive the lion's share with a 60-70% for 4"

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Cyclonic flow aloft persists today as an upper level trough digs through Appalachia. Stratus has once again overtaken the region, but the question will be how well does it stick around through the day? Embedded within this cloud deck we can see some anthropogenic plumes spreading out from the Iron Range on both satellite and radar. With even colder air expected to filter in from the north today I expect this activity to continue. To account for this we have drawn in some PoPs with light accumulations of less then half an inch for areas downstream. The rest of the area will see similar conditions as yesterday. The stratus cloud deck resides within the DGZ and will occasionally drop some flurries at times. Today however, we look to have some steeper low level lapse rates in the afternoon with 8C/km up through 800mb. This may lead to some HCRs and some bursts of heavier snow at times. These snow showers would be short-lived but can quickly reduce visibility as well as put out a brief rush of wind.

Ongoing Lake Effect:

Cold air continues to filter in on northwesterly winds with 850 temps around -20C. This cold air streaming across Lake Superior has resulted in delta Ts creating instability on the order of 300 J/kg. Snow showers are already present over the South Shore and will continue through until Monday morning when drier air moves in and shuts down the process. Until then rates will be fairly light around a quarter an inch or less per hour, but with the overall prolonged nature of the event we will keep the Advisory going for Iron County. Expect an additional 2-5" inches before the Advisory concludes at midnight tonight. Additionally, northwest flow over the terrain ridge of the North Shore has lead to a gravity wave set up for the South Shore. Light snow accumulations were increased across northern Douglas and Bayfield, but not enough to warrant any headline issuances.

Next Clipper:

A fairly cold start to the work week with wind chills ten to twenty below zero Monday morning. Temperatures in the afternoon are expected to stall out in the teens and low twenties. Overnight is when we expect our next chance for some widespread snow. A clipper dives out of the Canadian Prairies late Monday and moves across the Northland for Tuesday. Q vector divergence brings the best forcing into the region after midnight which is when we see our PoPs climb to 40-60% across northern MN. The system become occluded as it moves into Ontario with another low developing in the Upper Midwest. This set up will allow for southerly winds to provide some lake enhancement to the North Shore boosting snow totals. This forecast package does have a slight increase in snow but the overall picture is relatively the same. Our southwest areas around Brainerd will not see much with values increasing as you head northeast. An inch or two will be possible for most locations with the highest totals being in the Arrowhead and the North Shore. Probabilities of at least 4" of snow along the North Shore are around 60-70%. One pitfall for this upcoming system will be the trailing cold front. Most of the guidance has this front staying south of our CWA but there are a few models that move it through the Brainerd Lakes region. This band would likely have a decent amount of FGEN forcing to go along with it which would lead to better chances for accumulating snow.

Midweek:

Our clipper system departs Tuesday night with surface high pressure filling in behind for Wednesday. Temperatures will be back around seasonal normals but we will see a steady increase over the next couple days with highs climbing into the 40s by Friday. Precipitation chances have fallen off quite a bit. Down to less then 10% from 30% for most of the area. Looking at the GEFS and EPS there still remains high uncertainty with low pressure placement for Wednesday night. But most solutions are coming in farther south leading to a decrease in us seeing any action for the Northland.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

MVFR stratus over the Northland will likely linger through the day. Occasional flurries will be possible under the cloud but accumulations will be minimal. As we head into the afternoon hours we will see some increasing winds out of the northwest with some HCRs. This will lead to the occasional snow burst that will momentarily plummet visibilities. Activity should wane in the evening hours with potential for VFR conditions to return.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 151 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

North to northwest winds continue gusting to around 25-30 kts for western Lake Superior. Small Craft Advisories are in place through Sunday into Monday morning. This update has added a Freezing Spray Warning for the Outer Apostle Islands as wave heights grow to 3-6 ft in frigid temperatures. Winds and wave start to taper off Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST Monday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for LSZ141>146. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ148-150. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ150.