textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A clipper system will bring a prolonged period of light snow to the Northland Thursday and Friday. Snow squalls may develop Thursday evening through Friday morning as colder air and gusty winds arrive.

- There is a 30% chance of several hours of freezing drizzle or sleet Thursday morning and early Thursday afternoon over central and north-central Minnesota. - Below normal temperatures return this weekend into next week. Highs in the single digits above and below zero with overnight lows in the teens below zero are forecast. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero are forecast Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Main concern for this forecast is accumulating snow, gusty winds, and colder temperatures starting Thursday morning and continuing through the weekend.

Surface high pressure will propagate eastward today and tonight. Skies were mostly sunny and winds will weaken again for a time tonight. An area of low pressure currently over Yukon Territory will rapidly move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies and into the Great Lakes by Friday morning. A warm front will move eastward across the Northland Thursday, although temperatures won't be drastically warmer. Ascent along and east of the warm front will support an area of snow developing Thursday morning. Deep moisture and lift should result in efficient snow production. While there is dry air ahead of the system to overcome, sublimation should provide sufficient saturation for snow to reach the ground by around 6 AM in north- central Minnesota. Visibility will quickly drop to a mile or less. The initial area of snow will propagate east-southeast during the morning and move into northwest Wisconsin by late morning. A layer of drier air aloft will advect into central and north-central Minnesota late Thursday morning into the afternoon and may cause a changeover to freezing drizzle or sleet.

The main trough axis associated with the shortwave trough and low pressure system will move into the region Thursday evening. Another round of widespread snow is forecast. Strong surface pressure falls are forecast along with strong cold air advection aloft. NAM and GFS snow squall parameters are maximized over the Dakotas tomorrow night and Friday morning with a narrow timeframe of snow squall potential over the Northland. The greatest snow squall potential will be mainly along and west of US-53 in Minnesota between 00Z and 09Z. This is a bit later in the day than typical snow squall situations in our area, which usually require some amount of diurnal heating to generate enough instability for intense snow showers. The strength of the low-level frontogenesis, steep low-level lapse rates, and sharp pressure falls may be sufficient to overcome the limited instability.

Snow showers will persist Thursday night through Friday as cyclonic flow aloft and cold air advection continue. Lake-effect snow will persist over northwest Wisconsin through Friday night into Saturday. Total snow accumulation over the 48-hour period will generally be in the 2 to 4 inch range with higher totals in the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt.

Much colder temperatures are expected for the weekend with highs 10 to 20 degrees below normal and readings in the single digits either side of zero. Dangerous wind chills are forecast Monday morning as another cold front dives southward across the region. Colder than normal temps will persist for much of the upcoming week and may drop well below normal again next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Outside of the South Shore snowbelt in north-central Wisconsin, VFR conditions and light winds are expected through 12Z. An incoming clipper system brings increasing snowfall chances from 12 to 18Z tomorrow to all terminals. Periods of freezing drizzle are also possible to end this TAF period, which creates the slightest potential for a glaze of ice on untreated surfaces. Southwest winds then veer westerly right at the end of this TAF period under lingering MVFR sky cover.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 242 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Northwest winds will gradually weaken this evening. Small Craft Advisories are in effect along the North Shore and the Outer Apostle Islands and from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor, WI. Winds back southwesterly Thursday ahead of an approaching clipper. Conditions will become hazardous once again with gusty winds and building waves. A cold front will pass eastward across the water Thursday night and Friday morning which will veer winds northwesterly. By late Friday afternoon and early Friday evening wind and waves will become hazardous once again and there is a 20% chance of gales to 35 knots near Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Winds gradually relax Saturday afternoon and evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>144-148-150.