textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warming conditions for today into early Saturday.

- Scattered showers and isolated storms arrive Saturday afternoon and evening, with several additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into the first half of next week. With over an inch of rainfall in some areas along with melting snow, minor flooding will be possible.

- There is also some conditional strong to severe thunderstorm potential late Sunday afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and evening, mainly for the I-35 corridor east into northwest Wisconsin.

UPDATE

Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Today - Tonight:

Some low stratus into very early this morning will eventually scatter/clear out from NW to SE as we progress through the morning hours. High pressure centered across the Upper Midwest today will gradually exit east into Saturday morning, keeping conditions dry. Expect mainly sunny skies to develop today along with some diurnal cumulus clouds with high temperatures turning more mild in the low to mid 40s for the Iron Range and areas north as well as locations immediately near Lake Superior, and upper 40s to low/mid 50s south of the Iron Range this afternoon. The freeze-thaw cycle continues today and tonight with above freezing temperatures today and lows in the upper teens to low 20s north and 20s to around 30F south, which will lead to some gradual melt from the remaining snowpack and refreeze overnight again.

Precip Round 1 - Saturday PM through Sunday night:

Ample warm and moist advection begins daytime Saturday as the surface high pressure moves off to the east and a strong fetch of Gulf moisture pushes northwards. Expect daytime high temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s for most locations with lows remaining above freezing for the vast majority of the Northland Saturday night. Saturday should start out initially dry as it will take the the atmospheric column time to saturate. The Northland should see scattered showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms moving in from the south by the afternoon/evening as some low-level frontogenesis/isentropic upglide. We will still see mid and upper-level ridging still in place during Saturday afternoon and evening, so precipitation coverage and heavier intensity should not become more widespread until the deeper synoptic forcing arrives Saturday night into early Sunday. The best coverage of showers/storms Saturday night into Sunday morning should also be across NW WI in the vicinity of the warm front and best frontogenesis. Given forecast PWATs around 1.25", there should be plenty of moisture to work with to aid in precipitation rates for NW WI.

As the surface low tracks east through ND and northern MN daytime Sunday, the attendant warm front will also surge north, leaving a good portion of the Northland in the warm sector of the low pressure system. Isolated to scattered showers and storms may persist along and north of the surface front through much of Sunday. There remains some uncertainty regarding the northward extent of the warm sector as well as the timing of a cold front for Sunday afternoon and evening, which will likely be influenced by how long the warm-advection showers and storms linger over the Northland. Should there be some residence time of clearing/some sunshine in the warm sector daytime Sunday, we could see enough warming of temperatures into the 60s to low/mid 70s away from Lake Superior and erosion of the capping inversion to produce surface- based thunderstorms by late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. As of now the areas of potential to be in the warm sector by the time of potential storm initiation are along and south of the US-2 corridor in MN through the 4-7 PM timeframe depending on how quickly the cold front moves through, with the best potential in the I-35 corridor to NW WI. Should the capping inversion break, we do have a conditional strong to severe thunderstorm environment for supercells along and ahead of the surface cold front, with primarily a strong wind and large hail threats. Confidence is low in exact locations and magnitude of the potential strong to severe storm threats as there is also the possibility that the capping inversion holds and thunderstorms don't develop.

Precip Round 2 - Monday PM through Early Tuesday:

As the surface low exits to our northeast, we should see a lull in precipitation in the wake of the cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. However, another system is poised to develop across the Central Plains and lift another warm front into the southern MN/western WI vicinity by Monday evening into early Tuesday. The latest guidance keeps the surface front just south of NW WI, with the bulk of the heavier showers and storms for the Northland forecast to move through NW WI Monday evening into Tuesday morning in association with the strongest frontogenesis. Should the front track any farther north than currently forecast, we could see the potential for surface-based thunderstorms and additional strong to severe thunderstorms once again Monday evening in the I-35 corridor to NW WI. Should the front remain south of the area, the strong to severe thunderstorm threat should remain shunted to our south. Most model guidance has precipitation with this round ending Tuesday morning. Models have trended even warmer for Monday night to Tuesday, so precipitation for the Northland should remain as rain and largely limit any potential for snow to mix in in far northern MN.

Precip Round 3 - Late Tuesday - Wednesday:

More spread in ensemble guidance for this timeframe as another surface low tracks from the Central Plains through the Upper Great Lakes. The trend with this system has also been warmer, so most precipitation is favored to fall as rain with some thunderstorm activity, though some light wintry mix is possible in the MN Arrowhead Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as surface temperatures fall to near freezing. The warm sector of this system and strong to severe storm potential late Tuesday/Tuesday night is favored to remain south of our area at this time, but could change if the low tracks farther north. Some of the slower model solutions for this low pressure system would also have precipitation lingering into late Wednesday, as well.

Overall, rainfall amounts with these several rounds of precipitation have not changed substantially, with areas having an inch or more of rainfall being from the Lake Mille Lacs area to the North Shore and areas east into NW WI. Probabilities are highest in NW WI where the several rounds of storms and heavier rainfall are more favored to repeatedly move through. Probabilities for 2" of rain or greater are 30-60% in Sawyer and Price Counties, though locally higher amounts will be possible due to thunderstorms in much of NW WI and are hard to pinpoint at this time. Look for lesser rainfall amounts with northwestward extent into north-central and far northern MN. With temperatures largely remaining above freezing from Saturday straight through at least Tuesday, snowmelt along with large rainfall amounts on remaining snowpack create concern for minor areal and river/stream flooding, especially for basins along the South Shore in NW WI.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

High pressure was centered across the Northern Plains this afternoon and extended into the Upper Midwest. Low pressure was located over eastern James Bay with a cold front trailing back into the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Winds were diminishing across the Northland as the high continued to build in. Light radar returns were evident across central Minnesota, but nothing was reaching the ground with dry air moving into the region. This was associated with an upper level shortwave propagating eastward. Kept minimal chances along our southern border into this evening as the main wave passes through, but anything more than a few sprinkles is unlikely. Dry conditions will then prevail for Friday into Saturday morning as high pressure works through the Upper Midwest. Highs Friday will reach into the 40s to middle 50s with lows mainly in the 20s.

As the high slides into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday, return flow on the backside will increase across the central CONUS. This features a Gulf connection bringing ample moisture northward along with warmer temperatures. Highs Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows remaining above freezing for most Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin pushing in from the south Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will be working against dry air at the surface and lingering ridging aloft, so precipitation may not begin until overnight. Periods of showers will continue through Sunday and into Sunday evening before this first system departs to the northeast. A warm front will move north across Wisconsin during the day Sunday. Where this front ends up will be a main factor in determining the northward extent of any strong to severe storms. Right now this looks like it will set up somewhere across northern Wisconsin, perhaps along the I-94 corridor. Most of the strong to severe storms should remain to our south based on current trends, but our far southern Wisconsin zones may be on the northern periphery. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to middle 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.

After a break during the day on Monday, another system will develop across the Central Plains and lift a warm front into the Minnesota/Wisconsin area Monday night into Tuesday. The 09.12z suite of models have shifted this second system a bit further south, keeping the heaviest rainfall across northwest Wisconsin. Models have also trended warmer for the Monday into Tuesday time frame, which will limit the snowfall potential across northeastern Minnesota Monday night into Wednesday to more of a rain/snow mix with perhaps some periods of freezing rain along the higher elevations of the North Shore. Models vary in moving this second system out of the area, but precipitation may linger into Wednesday night if the slower solutions verify. Combining the two systems results in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches from the Lake Mille Lacs area to the North Shore and eastward across northwest Wisconsin, including the Twin Ports. The highest amounts will likely be in the Sawyer and Price county areas. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to an inch will be possible across the remainder of northeastern Minnesota. With the above freezing temperatures and large rainfall amounts on top of the snowpack, minor flooding will be possible, mainly across some of the more susceptible basins across northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will start to trend a bit cooler starting Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s and then 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings in stratus during the current overnight hours, but ceilings return to VFR and even see some scattering out of clouds from NW to SE into this morning. Can't rule out some brief SCT to BKN MVFR cloud bases/ceilings at INL in the 14-18Z timeframe, however. Additionally, there is a 20% chance for brief fog development near BRD around sunrise after the stratus pushes east of the terminal, but did not include in the TAF at this time due to low potential. Some SCT VFR diurnal cumulus develops this afternoon and dissipates towards sunset. Winds will be light and variable through the current overnight, become west to northwesterly at 5-8 kt during the daytime hours with occasional gusts to 12-16 kt during daytime mixing, and then become light to calm again this evening and tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

No marine concerns are expected over the next 48 hours with high pressure moving across western Lake Superior. Winds will be variable at 5 to 15 knots into Saturday morning. Winds then become easterly at 5 to 15 knots Saturday into Sunday with a few gusts to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Rain-free conditions for today with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light out of the west to west-northwest, but we should see afternoon gusts 10-15 mph with peak daytime heating. High temperatures will top out in the 40s to mid 50s, warmest from the Brainerd Lakes east into the I-35 corridor and inland NW WI. Given a signal for deeper mixing heights up to 4800-6000 ft this afternoon, min RH values have been nudged down slightly to 25-40%, and being 25-35% from the Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports and into inland NW WI. Pockets down to the low 20s percent cannot be ruled out, particularly for the WI Pine Barrens and snow-free areas. Scattered showers and storms arrive Saturday afternoon and evening, with several rounds of additional showers and thunderstorms for Saturday night through the first half of next week. Many locations should see 1 or more inches of rainfall from eastern Minnesota into the Arrowhead and in NW WI. Portions of NW WI could see up to around or slightly exceeding 2" as well given repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 451 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Another day of well-above freezing temperatures are in store today with highs in the low/mid 40s in the Arrowhead and far northern MN and upper 40s to mid 50s elsewhere. This should continue the snow transformation and melt process. The snowpack across much of north-central MN, the Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and southern tier of WI counties in our CWA is fairly minimal (less than 5" in depth and 0.5-1.5" of SWE or less) and is likely to melt down to bare or near-bare ground by Saturday. Temperatures dropping below freezing again tonight should help to make for a steady, controlled melt through Saturday morning across the entire area. River and stream responses so far have been none to very limited.

Starting Saturday, a longer period of above normal temperatures with highs and lows above freezing is expected to begin and continue through at least Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday and Thursday for most of the Northland. This should accelerate 24/7 snowmelt processes, particularly Sunday and Monday with widespread high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 70s away from the immediate vicinity of Lake Superior. Starting Saturday afternoon and evening, several rounds of rain and thunderstorms move across portions of the Northland through mid-next week. Latest ensemble guidance shows most of the area along a line from Aitkin to the North Shore and areas southeast with a 40-90% chance of receiving an inch or more of rain in this period. There is a 30-60% chance for locally higher amounts of 2"+ possible in NW WI, highest in Sawyer and Price counties. Rates themselves are unlikely to lead to typical overland flooding or flash flooding outside of training thunderstorms. Where this rain is combined with snowmelt there are areal and river flooding concerns. By Saturday, it appears that the areas with appreciable remaining snowpack will be along the North and South Shores where snow depth is still 8-24" with 2-8" of SWE. Some of that SWE is expected to melt out over the next 24-36 hours, but there will still be plenty left by the time rain begins Saturday afternoon/evening. Current probabilistic guidance shows the potential for several river forecast points to exceed their action or minor flood stages on the Nemadji and Bad Rivers. There is an increasing chance (40-70%) that the Tyler Forks River may crest into its moderate flood stage which leads to impacts along Highway 169 northeast of Mellen. Along the North Shore onshore winds could lead to enhanced precipitation totals and the South Shore will be closer to the higher synoptic rainfall amounts as well as repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms - so both areas of remaining snowpack could also be under the higher amounts of rain. Interests along the North and South Shore should heed latest forecasts and be prepared for possible minor flooding for the first half of next week.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.