textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for much of the Northland. A powerful and messy winter system is expected to bring heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, mixed precipitation, and strong winds to the Northland.

- Storm and Gale Watches are posted for western Lake Superior starting Tuesday. Northeast winds will rapidly increase, creating hazardous waves and potential storm-force gusts along the North Shore.

- Patchy dense fog remains possible near Lake Superior until the storm moves in Tuesday evening.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue today, with highs reaching the upper 40s. This warmth will precede the sharp transition to winter weather mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Lingering fog persists near Lake Superior this morning and probably will float around until Tuesday evening when the next system mixes it out.

A little instability is causing a small cluster of thunderstorms that is zooming across NW WI. Brightbanding on radar make them appear more menacing than they actually are. There is potential for a light wintry mix across the far northern Arrowhead and International Border regions as a weak disturbance moves through. This may trigger spotty freezing drizzle or light snow showers through the morning hours. Travelers in the far north should remain alert for potential slick spots.

Elsewhere, unseasonably mild air remains in place. Today will feature mostly dry conditions with temperatures running well above normal; expect highs to climb into the upper 40s for most locations, while some spots in the south could reach the low 50s.

Attention shifts to a potent winter storm organizing to our west. This system is projected to impact the region starting late Tuesday, persisting through Thursday and potentially into Friday. Precipitation will likely begin as rain Tuesday afternoon due to the warm pre-existing airmass. As the system deepens and dynamic cooling takes over Tuesday night into Wednesday, a transition to a wintry mix is expected from north to south for several hours before becoming wet, heavy snow. The track of the low-pressure center remains critical, as a slight shift north or south will determine the exact rain-snow line.

Heavy Snowfall: Current indications favor the heaviest totals across north-central and northeast Minnesota. Along the North Shore, terrain enhancement and lake moisture (despite 50% ice cover) will boost totals to around one foot. While the snow will be wet and heavy initially, it will become drier further north, leading to significant blowing snow and reduced visibility. The heavy nature of the snow will likely cause it to stick to trees and may cause power outages.

Icing: The signal for freezing rain has increased which will cut into snow totals in the south with the line likely straddling the Twin Ports area. Model soundings vary quite a bit from flavor to flavor on how they handle this.

Travel: Conditions will deteriorate rapidly Tuesday night, making the Wednesday morning and evening commutes difficult.

Wind & Visibility: Strong east-to-northeast winds will gust to 50 mph or higher along the North Shore likely causing blizzard conditions and power outages along the North Shore.

The system will gradually wind down Thursday as colder, more seasonal air filters in for late February. However, the active pattern continues; another low-pressure system crossing to our south bears watching for the end of the week. There is a possibility this system clips Northwest Wisconsin, where QPF amounts in the deformation band currently exceed 0.3". We will monitor this closely for additional snow potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 An area of IFR stratus is sliding south from Canada. Believe this will dissipate by late morning or early afternoon and eventually, VFR conditions are expected this afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected through the period. Some LLWS may occur here and there. Models are struggling with fog near Lake Superior though believe it will stay away from KDLH.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 233 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Patchy fog lingers over the Lake Superior through Tuesday evening. The main marine concern is a developing storm and gale event. Strong northeast winds will develop Tuesday afternoon and persist through Wednesday night. Storm and Gale Watches are in effect for all nearshore zones. Storm-force gusts are possible along the North Shore due to the favorable fetch. Waves will build significantly where ice is not present, creating hazardous conditions for all vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ037. WI...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for WIZ001-002. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for WIZ001. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140>145. Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for LSZ140-141. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for LSZ142>144. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for LSZ142. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ145-146-148-150.