textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall is expected to continue today through Wednesday. Additional rainfall of at least 0.75-2" is forecast for most locations today through Wednesday night.

- Rain will begin to taper off from west to east on Wednesday night into Thursday.

- A drier pattern with cooler temperatures will be arriving for the end of the week into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread rain and drizzle is occurring early this morning as sfc low pressure currently sits around the middle of the CWA. Within the trowal region of this low pressure, located mainly north of the Iron Range, light to moderate rain is continuing to fall and will be propagating to the northeast later this morning. South of the low pressure center, mainly in the St. Croix River Valley into northwest WI, precip is much more isolated with areas of drizzle due to dry air advecting into the CWA via the dry conveyor belt.

Minimal forecast changes have been made early this morning when compared to the previous major update yesterday afternoon. Guidance is still in agreement that a second low pressure will propagate into the Upper Midwest this afternoon, redeveloping widespread rainfall across the CWA. After rain tapers off from west to east on Wednesday night into Thursday, expect cooler and drier air to advect into the CWA for Friday into the weekend. Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain showers are in full swing this afternoon, and will continue tonight through Tuesday and Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is still expected this afternoon and evening with this initial wave of moisture pushing through our region ahead of a deepening low pressure system. A few embedded rumbles of thunder remain possible across parts of the Northland through this evening. Strong southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph before easing later tonight. As a dry conveyor belt works into the area overnight, widespread rain will transition to more scattered showers. This will lead to a lull in rain intensity tonight before a second round follows with another shortwave on Tuesday. Given ongoing D1 to D4 drought conditions across the Northland, this soaking rain brings welcome relief.

Widespread soaking rain will redevelop across the area on Tuesday as a shortwave dives south from northern Manitoba and reinforces the trough over the Upper Great Lakes, drawing an influx of Gulf moisture into the region. Rainfall will expand in coverage by Tuesday afternoon and turn heavy at times heading into Tuesday night. Orographic enhancement over the North Shore will likely lead to an additional 1.5-2 inches after this evening, while most others will only see an inch to inch and a half. Rain showers will continue through Tuesday night across the entire Northland, with elevated instability supporting an isolated thunderstorm risk in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The low pressure system will briefly slow over the area throughout Wednesday, causing showers to continue through Wednesday. Rain will remain persistent and widespread across our region before gradually tapering from west to east late Wednesday night as the center of the system begins a sluggish shift downstream. Multi-day storm total rainfall will broadly reach 1 to 2 inches across the Northland, with localized totals exceeding 2 to 3 inches in north-central Minnesota and along the higher terrain of the North Shore. Winds will veer northwesterly Wednesday afternoon as a cooler airmass begins filtering into western areas.

On the back end of the second system, northwest flow of cooler air over Lake Superior will lead to a few light showers over Ashland and Iron counties into Thursday. For the rest of the Northland, rain will taper off early Thursday morning as the low departs. A noticeably cooler airmass will overspread the region on gusty northwest winds, causing daytime temperatures to struggle in the lower to mid 40s. High pressure begins building into the Upper Midwest late Thursday and maintains control through Friday. This brings an end to the active wet pattern and allows some sunshine to break through mostly cloudy skies.

Drier and quiet conditions will persist into the weekend as high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will remain largely precipitation-free with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. A weak upper-level disturbance will introduce a slight 20 percent chance of light rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, though no significant accumulation is anticipated. Quiet weather returns Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool air maintaining overnight lows down into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to be persistent through the period as one low pressure system exits to the northeast this morning and a second low pressure arrives this afternoon. Widespread rain is expected to redevelop by this afternoon, continuing through tonight with occasional moderate to heavy rainfall rates. An isolated embedded thunderstorm may occur this evening into tonight. However, confidence in location or timing is very low given that any thunderstorms will be very hit or miss.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Winds have eased early this morning as the center of low pressure moves through northern Minnesota. As this low pressure departs to the northeast this morning, a second low pressure system will be arriving into the Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. The resulting northeast winds from this arriving low pressure are expected to increase gusts to 25 knots this evening into Wednesday morning. Waves are also anticipated to build in excess of 4 feet around the Twin Ports and in the outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories have been issued due these expected gusty winds and elevated wave heights. Expect widespread rain to redevelop this afternoon and continue through Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 306 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns continue today into Wednesday as widespread rain continues. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.75 to 2" are forecast for most locations over a time period of today through Wednesday night. Terrain enhancement along the North Shore in southern Lake and Cook Counties is anticipated to result in additional rainfall closer to around 2". Wind direction today will be variable as the center of low pressure moves through, becoming northeast tonight into Wednesday. Rain begins to taper off from west to east late Wednesday into Thursday with a cooler and drier pattern moving in for the end of the week into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>147. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ150.