textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Very light snow with trace to no accumulations possible in the tip of the Arrowhead through mid-morning.

- Additional chances for a very light snow/rain mix near the International Border and in the tip of the Arrowhead tonight through Saturday morning. Also can't rule out a 10-20% chance for some freezing rain to mix in, too. Up to a couple tenths of an inch of snow and a very thin glaze of ice are possible.

- After a warm weekend and early next week, a pattern shift to colder, winter-like regime will occur starting late Tuesday.

- The potential for widespread precipitation from late Monday into the middle of next week is increasing, but there are still mixed signals regarding when and how much snow will accompany this precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Today - This Weekend:

A weak surface trough/secondary cold front is moving through during the current overnight hours into this morning. Some remnant low-level moisture in the tip of the Arrowhead could be just enough to produce some very light snow/flurries (20-30% chance) in far northeastern St. Louis, northern Lake, and Cook counties during the early to mid morning hours. Most of this precipitation should stay north of the International Border as seen on Canadian radar, but can't rule out a trace of snow accumulations in spots for the aforementioned areas if snow does occur.

Otherwise, mostly dry weather sets up for today into this weekend with high pressure overhead both today and Sunday. Nestled between the two rounds of high pressure will be the passage of a weak cold front approaching from our northwest and some weak shortwave energy aloft accompanying it tonight into Saturday. Moisture is above average with this system but not unusually high, with PWATs of 0.5-0.6" on par with the 80-90th percentile of climatology for late November. The initial dry air in the low-levels--especially in southern portions of the area--and quick window of time for favorable synoptic forcing with this system should keep precipitation chances fairly limited. Generally looking at a 20-40% for a snow/rain mix centered along the Borderlands into Lake and Cook counties later tonight into Saturday morning before exiting east Saturday afternoon, with snow accumulations up to 0.1-0.2". There will also be the presence of a weak warm nose aloft late tonight into early/mid Saturday morning that, if sufficiently deep enough, could cause some light freezing rain to mix in, as well. The potential for any freezing rain is 20% or less, with any accumulations likely a light glaze at best.

Aside from more seasonal high temperatures in the low/mid 30s north to low 40s south today, high temperatures for this weekend should be 5-15 degrees above normal for late November, ranging from around 40F in the tip of the Arrowhead to upper 40s/near 50F in the Brainerd Lakes to northwest Wisconsin.

Next Week:

The main changes to the forecast over the last 24 hours has been an increasing in the potential for widespread precipitation and a shift earlier in the start time for precipitation to Monday afternoon/evening.

Confidence in a stark transition to more winter-like temperatures remains high starting late Tuesday and persisting into early December. Monday into early Tuesday starts out with above normal temperatures as southerly flow on the back side of Sunday's high pressure and underneath a ridge aloft keeps the warm airmass in place to start the week. Highs on Monday in the 40s to around 50F are expected, with lows cooling off into the low to mid 30s by early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be a transition day with highs in the 30s in Minnesota and low/mid 40s in Wisconsin before temperatures drop below normal Wednesday (highs in the 20s to around 30F) and onwards (highs in the 20s) through at least the Thanksgiving weekend and likely into early December.

Global ensemble models have been coming into better agreement on the likelihood of widespread precipitation during the Monday afternoon into mid-week timeframe, with pretty much all individual ensemble members now showing precipitation. With that said, uncertainty remains regarding the track of a trough/low aloft originating in the Pacific Northwest this weekend as it moves east and deepens through the first half of next week. At the same time, a cut off low over Baja California into the Four Corners region Saturday and Sunday is forecast to eject northeast through the Rockies and central Plains and then open up into a trough and track through somewhere in the Great Lakes on Tuesday, possibly as far north as Lake Superior and as far south as the lower Great Lakes. The resulting uncertainty in the upper-level trough/low tracks will also directly influence the surface low pressure systems associated with them. There is likely to be interaction between the two systems, but the track of the southern system in particular will dictate how much moisture can be brought north into the Upper Midwest given some fetch of Gulf moisture. The track of the northern system and how quickly it deepens would moreso influence where deformation snow banding on the northwest side of the surface low pressure would set up: a more northerly track of the surface low would place heavier snow north and west of the Northland, while a surface low track through or just southeast of the Northland would favor a better potential for banded snow to set up somewhere in the area. Still a bit too early to determine exactly how these features will form and move, so confidence in primary precipitation types and amounts remains lower.

With that said, the general pattern and warmer air to start the week would favor precipitation beginning as all rain Monday afternoon into early Tuesday before the push of colder air would lead to a west to east transition to a rain/snow mix Tuesday afternoon and evening, and then all snow for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Still some variance on when precipitation would come to an end on Wednesday or early Thursday. In fact, there are even some deterministic and individual ensemble model solutions with a more northerly surface low track for the northern system that could place the Northland in the dry slot region late Tuesday/early Wednesday which would also affect precip/snowfall amounts if that solution were to occur. Still a lot to sort out on the precipitation side of things for the mid-week Thanksgiving travel timeframe. For context, ensemble probabilities of appreciable snow for the Northland have increased, highlighted by NBM 72-hour snow probabilities from the 06Z 11/21 model suite valid for 6 PM Monday - 6 PM Thursday of:

>= 1": 25-60%, highest in northern Minnesota and Iron Co, WI. >= 4": 10-45%, highest along/north of Iron Range and in Iron Co, WI. >= 6": 5-30%, highest north of the Iron Range and in Iron Co, WI.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period. The potential for MVFR ceilings at INL have decreased this morning, and have lowered down to 30% chance or less for HIB. However, still expect BKN035 at INL to continue into the afternoon as stratus in far northern Minnesota and the Minnesota Arrowhead scatters out this afternoon. Northwest winds today generally stay under 10 knots, backing to southerly this evening and tonight and becoming calm to light. Some light snow potential (20-40%) returns to the International Border and tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead tonight into Saturday morning. Potential for precipitation at INL remains below 20% at this time, so have not included any precipitation there in mention in this TAF update.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Northwesterly winds gusts to 20-25 knots are forecast to continue in the Outer Apostle Islands and from Grand Marais to Grand Portage into mid-morning today, while wave heights of 3-5 feet linger until midday for the Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through this morning for the aforementioned locations. Winds decrease this afternoon and evening before quickly shifting southwesterly late tonight into Saturday, with gusts on Saturday of 15-20 kt turning more WNW on Saturday evening and night. Southwest winds again on Sunday with gusts of 15 kt or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140-150.