textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rainfall expected for southern portions of the Northland beginning this evening and continuing overnight into Wednesday. Areas of flash flooding and isolated severe storms are possible.

- Hot and humid today, then a brief cooldown on Wednesday with a break in the humidity until late this week.

- Minimal precipitation in the extended forecast with potentially impressive heat this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This morning's passing cold front is still expected to lead the way for a stationary front to set up from west to east today, which is expected to drive shower and thunderstorm development late this evening and into Wednesday. Along this front, expect generally pretty slow storm motions, robust PWATs, and training storms so areas of heavy rainfall are likely. A band of 1-3" of rainfall is expected, with some locally higher totals of 4-6" possible. Model agreement on the location of the front has been slowly improving, with the most likely placement looking to be along our southern tier of counties, from the Brainerd Lakes to the I-35 corridor and into NW WI. However, there are still some solutions that put the heavy band directly over the Twin Ports or as far south as the Twin Cities, and run-to-run placement is still variable, so confidence is medium at this time. Where that heavy rain does fall, some localized flash flooding seems likely. Once the area for the heaviest rain gains some forecast confidence, a Flood Watch will likely be needed. Some isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are also possible along the southern and eastern edge of convection. Expect most of this precipitation to move out of the area by Thursday morning, and possibly as early as Wednesday evening.

Expect a fairly warm day today with highs in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s further south. Following the stationary front precipitation, a cooler day should be on tap for Wednesday with highs in the 70s and notably lower dew points in the 50s. Those lower dewpoints should stay with us for a couple days before they begin to increase into the weekend. As we stay in upper level zonal flow through Saturday, any shortwaves that move through that flow could lead to some light rain or thunderstorms but nothing significant is currently expected.

Sunday and into next week, models are in very good agreement that a robust upper level high will move into the central CONUS which will probably drive the temperatures up across the Northland. Model guidance is suggesting widespread temperatures in the 80s across the Northland with several days of widespread 90s possible Sunday and Monday. Heat headlines may be needed.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Expect light northerly winds through the day today with VFR conditions until the evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms return overnight into Wednesday morning for all terminals except INL, possibly affecting BRD by this evening, otherwise all other sites will have the best chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms after 06z Wednesday.Expect ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR or IFR levels with these showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain, damaging winds, and large hail are possible.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A fairly calm day on Lake Superior is expected today with an afternoon light southerly wind, except near shore from the Twin Ports to Saxon Harbor where light onshore winds are expected. Winds turn back to the northeast Wednesday. Expect potentially widespread rain showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday with the best chance from the Twin Ports and east along the South Shore. An isolated storm could be severe.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light northerly winds are expected today, with no precipitation expected until late this evening. This evening into Wednesday afternoon, expect areas of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain, most likely along and south of Hwy 2 in MN and across NW WI. In that area, 1-3" of rain are possible, with locally higher amounts of 4"+. It is possible that areas closer to the International Border receive little to no rain. Afternoon RH of 35-40% is possible today and tomorrow in the MN Arrowhead and along the Canadian Border. Light northerly winds continue (outside of any thunderstorms) through Wednesday. Little rain in the extended forecast with a warm- up expected this weekend into next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.