textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A daily freeze and thaw cycle with melting snowpack will lead to the development of overnight and early morning fog through midweek.

- A large system arriving Friday and lingering into the weekend brings the potential for rain, mixed precipitation, and a little snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

For the rest of the day, expect ample sunshine across the Northland as high pressure centered over the lower Great Lakes drifts further east. Strong warm air advection around the periphery of this high will continue to push our temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s this afternoon. Southwest winds will be quite breezy, gusting between 20 and 25 mph, before slowly diminishing this evening as the atmosphere decouples and an inversion sets up.

We are entering a noticeable warming trend that will dominate the weather story through the middle of the week. Widespread 40s and even some lower 50s are expected across the region by Wednesday. With overnight lows consistently falling back below freezing, this diurnal freeze and thaw cycle will lead to a melting snowpack during the day. The introduction of this low level moisture, combined with persistent southerly flow, will set the stage for fog development during the overnight and early morning hours through midweek.

By Thursday, a shortwave and accompanying developing low pressure system will track to our south across the Mid Ohio Valley. This will shift our winds to the east off Lake Superior, keeping temperatures locally cooler near the lake while inland areas still reach the upper 40s. Our attention then turns to a much larger and more complex system developing over the Rockies that will lift into our region by Friday and Saturday.

This late week system will likely spread widespread rainfall across the Northland starting Friday. Given the prolonged southerly flow ahead of this system, there will be plenty of moisture available, meaning rainfall could be moderate at times with total amounts generally 0.25" with some potential for up to 0.5" of rain or more. There will likely be a deformation band in the region which could cause training adding to the potential for higher amounts as the Northland is in an ideal location for a prolonged band of precipitation. This is highlighted by the large spread in model QPF. As a cold front drops down from the Red River Valley late Friday, we expect precipitation to transition from rain to snow heading into Friday night - snowfall amounts should be less than an inch and models highly suggest that most of the QPF should have fallen by the time the cold arrives. Also, wanted to mention that the general trend for this system has been to pull it to the north and west - keeping us warmer and moist. The combination of rain and snowmelt with higher dewpoints could lead to minor rises on area waterways heading into the weekend. While the colder air wraps in late Friday, temperatures over the weekend still look to rebound into the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Stratus will continue to spread northward this evening. Ceilings will start out MVFR and will gradually decrease to IFR or LIFR by sunrise Tuesday. There is a potential for fog to develop, particularly over areas where the stratus arrives later. The clouds should limit cooling once they arrive and therefore limit the fog potential. Expect conditions to slowly improve Tuesday afternoon as a weak cool front slides south- southeast across the terminals. The thickness of the stratus will play a significant role in how quickly the skies scatter out. Some of the high-res forecast models and the NAM suggest low stratus will persist through the afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 155 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Hazardous conditions are ongoing across western Lake Superior this afternoon. Southwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots are producing gales along the North Shore. Winds will diminish this evening, remaining southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday. The next hazardous waves and winds won't be until Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.