textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers possible as a cold front passes through the Northland today, with the greatest probability for measurable precipitation along and north of the Iron Range this morning.

- Strong northwest winds expected today with gusts as strong as 30 to 35 mph.

- For the rest of the work week beyond Monday, generally dry with temperatures below normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A surface low is centered over southwest Ontario early this morning, with a strong cold front stretching from near INL to near Fargo, and pushing southeast through the Northland. Scattered light rain showers ahead of the front are moving across the Brainerd Lakes region and across the Arrowhead. In addition, a broken line of showers behind the front will continue to push into the area. The best shower coverage will be along and north of the Iron Range, with rainfall accumulations of 0.10-0.20inches. Elsewhere, a few hundredths or less are possible.

Ahead of the front, a 50kt low level jet is mixing down to the surface, and southwesterly gusts of 30-35mph are possible. As the front passes, winds shift to the northwest, and remain strong. Expect continued gusts of 30-35mph through much of today. There is a 20-40% chance of stronger gusts this morning. Those percentages increase along the North Shore as downsloping enhances winds.

Cold air behind the front arrives quickly, and expect high temperatures today to range from the lower 40s across far north central MN to upper 50s across near and south of the Gogebic Range in northwest WI. Cannot rule out a few showers this afternoon as low level lapse rates are strong and there is some lingering low level moisture. Coverage will be low and do not expect much additional accumulation, if any.

Lows tonight will fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds remain elevated overnight, dropping wind chill values down into the teens across the Arrowhead Tuesday morning and 20s elsewhere.

Rest of the work week:

Not many changes needed to the long term forecast this morning, expect to bump precipitation chances up Thursday afternoon to 20-30%, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. However, meaningful accumulations are unlikely.

Previous Discussion:

Persistent northwest flow at mid to upper levels with 850mb temps around -5C to -10C, values which are more typical of late March and early April rather than early May. Generally dry conditions, but weak disturbances in the northwest flow will still bring cloud cover and a very low chance for precip, greatest on Thursday with probabilities for precip rising to 10-20 percent for some spots, but little to no measurable precip is expected generally through the week. Relative humidity values falling to around 30-40 percent each day, with cloud cover and lack of surface winds precluding any kind of near-critical fire weather conditions. Tuesday will be the coolest day with highs in the 40s to near 50, which is unlikely to set any record low (cold) max temp records, but will be 15-20 degrees below normal for early May.

Next weekend temperatures warm back up to near normal as a mid/upper level ridge over the northwest builds eastward into the Great Plains, but there are signs that another round of reinforcing cooler Canadian air could return late weekend into next week. No significant precipitation or thunderstorm chances on the horizon through next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A strong cold front is moving through the area this morning, with wind shifts to the northwest having occurred at all forecast terminals except HYR. The wind shift should pass through HYR around 13Z. Winds as the front passes are gusting up to 40kts. Strong northwest winds will persist through the day, with gusts of 30-35kts. There is an area of rain behind the front that is moving eastward, and do not expect it to impact any additional forecast terminals, as it moves over the Arrowhead and portions of the North Shore. There is a low chance of a shower through the rest of the day, but chances are too low to include at this time.

MVFR cigs across north central MN, including over INL, could spread southward this morning. The general trend will be for increasing heights with VFR cigs through the forecast period, except for INL.

Winds diminish some this evening, but gusts of 20kts will remain possible tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A strong cold frontal passage this morning will lead to strong southwest to west winds, with gusts of 30 knots possible and peak wind gusts approaching gale- force conditions this morning into the afternoon, strongest in the Twin Ports, along the north shore, and over the Outer Apostles. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday for much of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters.

Beyond Monday, high pressure builds in with very weak winds and cooler temperatures through the rest of the work week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A strong cold frontal passage this morning will result in shifting wind directions and very strong northwest winds through today, with gusts of 30-35mph. There is a 20-40% chance of stronger gusts, particularly along the North Shore, where downsloping enhances winds. Cooler and drier air arrives behind the front, with cloud cover could lingering through the day. This afternoon's minimum RH values will drop into a 28-35% range from the Brainerd Lakes region eastward into northwest Wisconsin, where northwest winds could still be gusting up to 30mph. Elsewhere, minimum RH values will remain above 35% as cooler temperatures arrive.

Winds remain west to northwesterly Tuesday through the rest of the week, as a seasonably cold airmass sets up through Friday, with very little precipitation forecast in this time period.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145.