textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms move through portions of the Northland through Friday evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible Friday afternoon/evening across northwest Wisconsin.

- Low chances for precipitation through the weekend and into next week.

- Temperatures remain above normal into next week with highs in the 70s and 80s.

UPDATE

Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The cold front leading to showers and storms has once again sped up in most recent model runs, which is supported by observations this early morning. Storms have also been cut off from a cap aloft, which is leading to a gravity in northwest Minnesota. As the cold front advances through the Northland today, storms will redevelop as early as the late morning towards up the I-35 corridor and North Shore. Strong to severe storms are possible with these storms as they move southeast into northwest Wisconsin, with hail up to an inch and damaging winds up to 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

High pressure stretched from the Central Plaints into the Great Lakes early this afternoon. An area of low pressure was located to the northwest of Lake Winnipeg with a cold front trailing into southern Saskatchewan and far northern Montana. A trough of low pressure was analyzed from another low on the southwestern shore of Hudson Bay southwestward into far northwestern Ontario, southeastern Manitoba and into the central Dakotas. A strengthening pressure gradient between the low to the north and high pressure to the south was creating gusty southwesterly winds across the Northland this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 mph recorded. Heading into tonight, the cold front will drop to the south and begin moving into northern Minnesota by around daybreak Friday. There may be a few isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight with the pre-frontal trough, but with dry air near the surface, not much is expected to reach the ground.

The front will work from northwest to southeast across the Northland during the day Friday, reaching the North Shore and Twin Ports by around midday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the front during the morning as it works across northeastern Minnesota. Meanwhile, increasing moisture and mainly clear skies across northwest Wisconsin will lead to CAPE around 2500 J/kg ahead of the front for the afternoon hours. Strong to a few possible severe storms will be possible during the afternoon across northwest Wisconsin as the front moves through. Shear looks to be less than 20 knots, so any severe threat will be low end with mainly pulse- type storms. Decent 700-500 mb lapse rates above 7C/km and DCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg will result in a low end threat for marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Chances for storms across northwest Wisconsin will linger through the evening before the front clears the region. Highs Friday will be in the 70s and lower 80s.

Weak surface high pressure will be in place for Saturday with northwest flow aloft. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will be seen Saturday night into Sunday morning with a weak frontal boundary developing across the Upper Midwest as a mid- level impulse moves through. Given the expected current timing, strong or severe storms are not expected. High pressure will then build in to start the week with chances for precipitation returning midweek as another impulse in the quasi-zonal flow aloft moves through the Upper Midwest. Temperatures for the weekend into next week will remain above normal with highs in the 70s and 80s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A line of storms are moving through NE Minnesota. The storms will reach HIB within the next hour, and in a couple hours will reach DLH if it manages to hold together. HYR will also see storms later this afternoon as the cold front moves through with a better environment. Damaging winds and large hail are possible. After the storms and cold front pass, winds will shift to the northwest and will reach 15-20 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Strong southwest winds continue to occasionally mix down along the North Shore in the early morning hours as the cold front moves through today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 7AM. Winds shift to the northwest overnight before returning to the southwest Saturday. Winds will increase once again and more Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A cold front continues to move through the Northland this morning. Behind the front, dewpoints will continue to decrease and winds will switch to the northwest at 10-15 mph throughout the afternoon. With decreasing dewpoints, a lot of northeast Minnesota will see minimum RH values as low as 40%, while northwest Wisconsin will likely stay in the 60s. The pattern from the last few days will continue Saturday and after with minimum RHs 30-50%. Winds will be stronger out of the west on Saturday with gusts up to 20 mph, but will decrease into next week as a high pressure moves into the area.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140.