textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry today again. Cooler near Lake Superior. Near critical fire weather expected in northern MN.

- More near critical fire weather possible across the Northland Wednesday.

- Chance for showers and thunderstorms pushes across the region late Wednesday into Thursday along a cold front. Some isolated severe storms could be possible.

- Additional areas of rain showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday into Saturday morning, with the best chances further south.

UPDATE

Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Under dominant high pressure today, as the low over the Dakotas temporarily retrogrades further west. This will result in another mostly blue sky, hot, and dry day. High temperatures away from Lake Superior should easily get into the 80s, in the mid to upper 80s in north-central Minnesota. Relative humidity will once again tank this afternoon with afternoon minimum RH of 15-30% expected, lowest in north-central MN to the MN Arrowhead, where near critical fire weather is expected.

Wednesday may have more widespread near critical fire weather concerns. High pressure starts to shift over the East Coast while the low over the Dakotas attempts to push eastward. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient within a still drier airmass. There is some uncertainty in how fast the cold front moves east which will affect how soon our area sees higher dewpoints. For now, have adjusted dewpoints and RH down for Wednesday. Widespread minimum RH of 20-30% is possible, along with southwest winds 10-15mph gusting 15-25 mph. Near critical fire weather may expand across NE MN and NW WI. Trends will need to be watched in wind speeds to determine if any areas of Red Flag Warning criteria might be met.

Precipitation is still on track to move in late Wednesday along a cold front attendant to the low tracking to our north. Timing on that cold front entering the Northland will determine any severe storm risk. A Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) has been expanded across into north-central Minnesota for Wednesday for isolated storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However, that risk is conditional on the cold front making it into our area by early to mid evening, when there will still be enough instability to tap into. Most guidance shows showers and thunderstorms weakening and partially dissipating as the front moves across our area overnight into Thursday.

Another trailing upper level shortwave brings another push of precipitation into the Northland Thursday through Saturday morning, turning into more of a stationary front Friday. This looks to be re- enforced by the high pressure settling over the southeast U.S., keeping a gulf moisture connection flowing into a frontal zone over the Upper Midwest. There is another Marginal Risk for isolated severe storms Thursday afternoon and evening primarily along the I- 35 corridor and across NW WI with a damaging wind and/or large hail risk. This set up Friday-Saturday might prove to be an ample precipitation producer, but it will dependent on where that stationary front sets up. Currently, much of 00Z ensemble guidance other than the GEFS keeps the best accumulations just to our south. However, at least some rainfall is expected for the whole area. Total accumulated precipitation from Wednesday evening through mid- day Saturday should range from 0.1-0.5" in the north to 0.3-1.0" for areas from the Brainerd Lakes to Phillips in our southern row of counties.

Well above normal temperatures return into the weekend with drier conditions at least Sunday into Monday before chances of precipitation return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Band of clouds remains anchored over northwest Minnesota to southeast Wisconsin, similar to the last few days. This is aiding in limiting relative humidity from bottoming out in the Brained Lakes to far western Wisconsin areas this afternoon. Further northward, RHs from 15 to 25% though are being observed in the Arrowhead and Borderlands. The Special Weather Statement for these near-critical fire weather conditions remains in effect for those areas through 8 PM this evening.

Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are creating conditions favorable for a high risk of rip currents at area beaches and hazardous boating conditions. The Beach Hazards Statement for these conditions remains in effect until 10 PM this evening for Lake Superior beaches in the Twin Ports.

Temperatures are forecast to warm 5 to 8 degrees Tuesday compared to today. This places almost all locations in the low-80s to upper-80s range of the maximum temperature Tuesday. Parts of Koochiching County could again scrape 90 F. The even warmer weather and persistently dry airmass creates continued very low relative humidity conditions that are even more widespread tomorrow as the band of clouds is not expected save for daytime cumulus. Another Special Weather Statement for near-critical fire weather conditions is likely to be needed in northern MN again Tuesday, but possibly even south of the Iron Range this time.

The surface high pressure center over the Great Lakes Tuesday shifts southeast into the Ohio River Valley Wednesday as a low pressure deepens and move eastward through the Canadian Prairies. This will draw in a more moist southwesterly flow through the Northland Wednesday afternoon through overnight. So the lowest dewpoints for north-central MN are likely to be in the morning then further increasing into the afternoon, but continued dry conditions for the Arrowhead and much of northwest Wisconsin. As the resulting pressure gradient tightens slightly, there will also now be higher wind speeds accompanying the southerly moisture tap. The combination of the lingering very dry airmass, days of warm temperatures and increased southerly winds on Wednesday lead to possible near-critical fire weather conditions spreading into northwest Wisconsin even Wednesday.

As the cold front moves into northwest Minnesota later Wednesday evening, chances (40-70%) of rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms increase first for north-central Minnesota. These same chances push further eastward into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday night, but especially daylight hours Thursday early morning. For areas along and south of US Hwy 2 there is a 50-60% chance of localized 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rainfall from the stronger non-severe thunderstorms by Thursday mid-day.

This cold front stalls out over central Minnesota to the western U.P. late this week to keep continued scattered rain shower and non-severe thunderstorm mentions in the forecast for Thursday PM into Friday night. Severe weather is still not expected with these late work week chances of rainfall (20-40%).

Another high-amplitude ridge sets up Saturday night into Sunday and creates a mainly dry forecast north of US Hwy 2 once again; widely scattered rain and general thunderstorm mentions south of US Hwy 2 but this is low confidence at this time. This time period is much more likely to be notable for the return to the very warm to hot conditions in the upper-80s by early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light easterly winds become south to southeasterly through today and this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Expect calmer winds, but still with an afternoon lake breeze push, today. Winds switch to come out of the south Wednesday ahead of a passing cold front Wednesday night, which could produce showers and thunderstorms. Some of those southerly winds could gust 10-15knots right along shore for the Twin Ports and South Shore. However, for much of the lake those southerly winds with warmer air should struggle to reach the surface due to the current cold water temperatures. Winds adjust slightly to come out of the southwest Thursday, with gusts up to 15 knots possible across Western Lake Superior. Areas of showers and thunderstorms could continue Thursday, most likely for the South Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Conditions are expected to be dry and hot today. High temperatures away from Lake Superior should easily get into the 80s, in the mid to upper 80s in north-central Minnesota. Relative humidity will once again tank this afternoon with afternoon minimum RH of 15-30% expected, lowest in north-central MN to the MN Arrowhead, where near critical fire weather is expected.

Wednesday may have more widespread near critical fire weather concerns with dry air persisting along with stronger winds. Widespread minimum RH of 20-30% is possible, along with southwest winds 10-15mph gusting 15-25 mph. Near critical fire weather may expand across NE MN and NW WI. Trends will need to be watched in wind speeds to determine if any areas of Red Flag Warning criteria might be met.

Precipitation is still on track to move in late Wednesday and persist, although scattered, through Saturday morning. A couple stronger storms to isolated severe storms are possible late Wednesday evening and again on Thursday afternoon and evening. Total accumulated precipitation from Wednesday evening through mid-day Saturday will range from 0.1-0.5" in the north to 0.3-1" for areas from the Brainerd Lakes to Phillips in our southern row of counties.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.