textproduct: Duluth

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Stratus clouds with flurries and light snow showers are present across the Northland this afternoon as northwesterly flow on the backside of yesterday's system brings a couple more hundredths of precipitation to the area. A few tenths of an inch of snow are possible through this evening. Winds become southwest overnight into Wednesday, which should turn any lake effect snow from Lake Superior back over the open waters. Incoming high pressure should assist in diminishing widespread snow showers but a mix of clouds is expected to persist out of which some flurries could persist.

Tonight should see chilly temperatures, but maybe not quite as low as originally anticipated. Models suggest we'll struggle to get rid of all our cloud cover, especially downstream of large inland lakes. With some of that cloud deck hanging around, the lowest temperatures will be relegated to the areas that do see clear skis. Most of the area will have morning low temperatures in the single digits and those areas that do clear out could drop below zero.

Highs in the teens and lows in the single digits above and below zero are expected through Thursday. There is good agreement for Thursday morning to be the coldest of the week with the potential for clearing skies under northwest flow behind a departing system. There is a 20-50% chance that Thursday morning low actual temps will be less than -10F across the Northland away from Lake Superior, which would be the coldest of the season so far.

Through next week, global models are in decent agreement that we'll remain under northwest flow with a low over Hudson Bay. Within this flow shortwaves should move along, bringing a persistent train of Alberta Clipper systems through the week. The first looks to be Monday evening into Tuesday but this system is weak and fairly moisture-starved. PWATs are blocked by a transient high pressure system that blocks northward moving gulf moisture so accumulations would likely be very minimal but it could be enough to keep overcast skies around with some flurries. A better chance for some light snow moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday with a better forced clipper that pulls some moisture with it as it departs the Canadian Rockies. Not a super impressive system by any means with global models suggesting a ~1005mb low and a progressive track, but this is classic Clipper set up and should bring at least a little snow refresher for our winter landscape. Decent agreement for 0.05-0.1" QPF which could mean a dusting to an inch or two across the Northland by Wednesday morning, slightly higher along the South Shore with lake enhancement. Some gusty NNW winds are possible behind this system through the day Wednesday, especially along the North Shore where gusts of 30+ mph could materialize.

Global ensembles highlight more chances for light snow towards the end of the week and into the weekend, but solutions are varied at this point. While most of these systems don't currently look like they would bring warning level amounts of snow, we do look to just keep slowly adding light to moderate amounts every couple of days through the 7 day forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 525 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread MVFR ceilings still engulf most of the Northland this evening. There are still a few snow showers percolating across the region that will dwindle over the next several hours. Ceilings may briefly improve overnight but we still have favorable probabilities of MVFR ceilings returning tomorrow as low level moisture rides southwesterly flow into the region. There is some concern for IFR ceilings to develop in BRD. If we manage to get a breif period of clearing this evening then the rapid falling temperatures could lead to a very low cloud developing in the region tomorrow morning. Additionally, southwesterly winds will increase tomorrow with gusts near 20 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Northwest winds should continue to die down into this evening, becoming southwest overnight into Monday. These southwest winds could gust over 20 knots by midday to early afternoon, with a slight chance for some Small Craft Advisories needed. Over the Apostle Islands and open waters, a hefty lake effect snow band will likely set up that could lead to an area of localized greatly reduced visibility. Winds remain southwest into Tuesday but should weaken Monday evening. Following a weak low pressure system passing Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds become more northwest and could get strong again, especially along the North Shore where there is a 10- 20% chance of gale force gusts Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 140>142-146>148-150.