textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and mainly dry for the weekend. A few showers are possible this afternoon along the North Shore. - Better rain chances arrive Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday morning. A few storms could be strong to severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Tonight and Sunday:

High pressure is moving southward into the region this afternoon, with light winds across northeast MN. Northerly winds are a bit breezier over northwest Wisconsin, where the pressure gradient is a bit tighter. The lake breeze along the North Shore coupled with a weak wave aloft has allowed for a few showers to develop. Although development might extend southwestward toward the head of the lake, better chances for a quick rain shower this afternoon are over the Arrowhead and north of Silver Bay. With loss of daytime heating, any activity will quickly diminish.

Tonight, with continued northeast winds off the lake, there is a 20-40% chance dense fog could spread inland, mainly along the South Shore and up the St. Louis River valley. Visibilities could drop below 0.5 mile through early Sunday morning.

Sunday, quiet conditions expected as surface high pressure shifts southward over the Northland. Winds will start to turn to the south but highs will remain close to seasonal averages or a few degrees below. Most of the area will start out in the 50s tomorrow morning, with a few upper 40s over the Arrowhead. Afternoon temps warm into the 70s to mid 80s. Lows Sunday night will reflect the warmer airmass arriving ahead of the next front, with lows ranging from the lower 60s across the west to upper 40s over the Arrowhead.

Monday/Tuesday:

Southerly flow increases Monday, allowing highs to climb into the 80s. Dew points will also climb back into the mid and upper 60s across out west. A shortwave, moving out of the northern Rockies, will pivot around the base of a trough associated with a Canadian closed low, and push a cold front into the Northland Monday evening. Ahead of the front, Monday afternoon, scattered showers will be possible, mainly north of the Brainerd Lakes, as moisture and lift increases ahead of the approaching cold front. Most of the area will remain dry through early evening.

Better forcing arrives with the front, and a line of strong to severe storms, pushing west to east through the Northland Monday night into Tuesday morning. With the loss of daytime heating, instabilities will drop off quickly as the front arrives. However, lapse rates remain high into the overnight period with a strengthening LLJ ahead of the front and bulk shear values increasing to 50-60kts along the front. The severe risk looks marginal with a 15% chance of severe in our NW. Will need to watch the parameter space Tuesday morning as the front moves through northwest WI, but right now, do now expect a severe threat in that area.

A secondary front arrives Tuesday from the northwest, bringing drier air with it, and a return to more mild temperatures.

Mid week:

High pressure over the region for Wednesday with temperatures staying in the 70s. Temperatures will slowly increase through the end of the work week with intermittent rain chances possible as the upper level pattern turns more zonal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Some smoke aloft is seen on satellite, but is not expected to lead to any restrictions. Fog is expected to develop at HYR during the early morning hours with fog spreading inland from Lake Superior. There is low chances for some fog at DLH as well, but confidence was too low to include at this time.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Breezy east to northeast winds are forecast to develop this afternoon and evening as a notable lake breeze moves onshore and well- inland. A few gusts approach the 25 knots into the southwest arm and near Saxon Harbor regions of western waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these conditions as the waves also build to 2 to 3 feet. Early Sunday morning, dense fog is possible along portions of the South Shore, with a 20-40% chance of visibilities below one quarter mile late tonight through Sunday morning.

Northeast winds increase again Sunday afternoon, but are expected to remain below advisory criteria.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Low fire weather concerns continue for the weekend. Light northerly winds today with Min RHs dropping into the 40s. Areas that get abundant sunshine today could drop to around 35%. Isolated showers will be possible over the North Shore and the Arrowhead this afternoon. Favorable onshore flow from Lake Superior will be in play this afternoon and overnight. Winds will turn back out of the south across northeast MN by Sunday and remain northeasterly over northwest WI. Next best chance for rain will be Monday evening through Tuesday as a cold front marches in from the west.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.