textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A powerful and messy winter system is expected to bring heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, mixed precipitation, and strong winds to the Northland Tuesday evening to Thursday morning. Blizzard conditions are expected along the North Shore.

- Storm and Gale Watches are posted for western Lake Superior starting Tuesday late afternoon from very strong easterly winds gusting to 55 knots.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The very warm and mainly dry weather pattern comes to an end today with an approaching storm entering the Upper Midwest Tuesday afternoon. Precipitation will begin Tuesday late afternoon as rain or freezing rain in central Minnesota before expanding across the region Tuesday evening.

As the storm intensifies Tuesday night, a transition from rain to heavy, wet snow will occur from north to south. The most severe impacts are expected along the North Shore with snow totals between 10 and 15 inches. These snowfall amounts are expected to be heaviest late Tuesday night through Wednesday early afternoon when snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely at times, possibly even 3 inches per hour. There are also notable signals in ensemble guidance that southern Lake County into far southwest Cook County high terrain areas could see 18 to 24 inches of snowfall from localized terrain enhancement. Combined with easterly winds gusting to 60 mph, blizzard conditions could make travel nearly impossible, particularly along Highway 61. These very strong winds lasting from 6 to 12 hours in time late Tuesday night into Wednesday early afternoon may bring downed power lines...creating sporadic power outages...and tree branches for the North Shore.

Farther south, including the Twin Ports and Northwest Wisconsin, the storm will bring a messy combination of freezing rain and snow. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch are forecast Tuesday evening and overnight before quickly tapering off by early Wednesday morning. These highest chances for any ice accumulations are along and south of the Iron Range and right along the US Hwy 2 corridor for Tuesday late PM.

A combination of Winter Storm Warnings and Blizzard Warnings were issued this afternoon for Bayfield County to the Ports and up into the Arrowhead, also including the Iron Range. The rest of the counties that were previously in the Winter Storm Watch remain so further westward into north-central MN.

The warmer airmass south of MN 210 and WI 77 highly limits the freezing rain chances and even light snowfall accumulations in those far southern counties. Winter Weather Advisories may still be needed though for some of these counties that do not currently have Winter Storm Watches, Winter Storm Warnings or Blizzard Warnings in effect.

While the heaviest snowfall will taper off Wednesday afternoon to evening, light snow continues into Thursday morning. The next system to monitor is for northwest Wisconsin Thursday night into Friday when a few inches of additional snowfall may occur as the low pressure center moves well southeast of the region. More seasonable, much cooler compared to the last very warm days, temperatures set up for Thursday daytime onward.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions currently in place with some high clouds moving across northern MN. Model guidance has significantly backed off the fog signal for the morning hours. Conditions will remain quiet through most the day with increasing clouds and winds accelerating out of the east. This evening will be the start of our ongoing winter storm for the next two days. Precipitation will start as rain or freezing rain depending on the terminal. A transition to snow will be favored across the north with a rain snow mix for the south. Expect the snow to be of the wet and heavy variety. Additionally, this will be a strong storm system leading to high winds and low level wind shear.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A dangerous period is ahead for Western Lake Superior. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect this evening through late morning Thursday for periodic dense fog forecast along the South Shore and Twin Ports. A Storm Watch is in effect for the North Shore, where northeast winds will gust to 55 knots Tuesday evening and Wednesday. A Gale Watch covers the South Shore for gusts up to 45 knots. Waves will build to 7-10 feet, with occasional heights up to 14 feet possible near the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to noon CST Thursday for MNZ020-021. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning for MNZ010-011-018-025-026-035. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to noon CST Thursday for MNZ012. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Thursday for MNZ019-037. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to noon CST Thursday for WIZ001-002. MARINE...Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for LSZ140>143. Blizzard Warning from 9 PM Tuesday to noon CST Thursday for LSZ142. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ144>146-148- 150. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for LSZ144>146-148-150.