textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy snow, blowing snow, strong winds, and a little mixed precipitation are all expected Thursday afternoon into Friday. Expect impacts for the Thursday afternoon and Friday morning commutes.

- Another strong storm may affect parts of the Northland Saturday and Sunday, with the highest snowfall totals over portions of northwest Wisconsin

- A diurnal freeze/thaw will likely occur through late week and then temperatures remain below freezing for several days early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING: A quick period of quiet weather is expected ahead of the next clipper system. Expect some re-freezing tonight, then possibly some brief above-freezing temperatures Thursday before the snow arrives in the afternoon.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: It's looking like a whopper of a clipper. It is expected to rapidly deepen as it approaches us, and we can expect some very strong winds especially for areas within ~50+ miles away from the low center track. The trick is figuring out where exactly that low will go. Short-range models have been tracking it well to the north, taking the low center somewhere through Duluth to the Arrowhead, while global models have been more consistent taking it just south of Duluth as it moves from WNW to ESE through the region. With this uncertainty, we have gone ahead with warnings only in places that we are highly confident will see heavy snowfall rates and/or strong winds and blowing snow.

In all low track possibilities, the North Shore is expected to see the heaviest snowfall amounts due to upslope flow and strong winds off the lake. Therefore, we went with a Blizzard Warning up there. Widespread snowfall amounts from 6-12" with some locally higher amounts are possible along the terrain ridge and wind gusts to around 45 mph. Elsewhere, we issued Winter Storm Warnings for a large portion of northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin for snow amounts between 4 and 8 inches. It's possible that some places in these warnings may not see snow totals above 6" (the usual criteria for a Winter Storm Warning), but we are expecting snowfall rates to easily reach 1 to perhaps 2 inches per hour with a pretty rapid onset Thursday afternoon.

Impact-wise, this should ensure a pretty treacherous Thursday afternoon and evening commute with a widespread band of heavy snow affecting pretty much all of the region. The residence time over any particular location will depend on the low track. This is our justification for these warnings even if a few places fall short of warning-criteria snow.

Further south, we have issued widespread Winter Storm Watches. If CAMs do trend back toward the global model solutions that favor a more southerly track, heavy snowfall amounts could happen further south. We will need another half day or so to work out these fine details and convert these watches either to advisories or warnings.

If the low track takes more of a northerly route, very strong northwest winds may reach as far north as the Brainerd Lakes. A High Wind Watch has been issued there for the potential for gusts up to 60 mph Thursday night. If the low does track south, winds likely won't be quite that strong. Stay tuned for updates on that, but prepare for the possibility for very strong winds Thursday night.

Expect the heaviest snowfall rates Tuesday later afternoon and evening. We will have a warm sector that could result in some mixed precipitation and perhaps some thunder. Indeed, thundersnow may be possible at times with this storm, especially from the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin.

We get into northwest flow and wraparound snow showers Friday morning, and some lingering lake/terrain enhancement is possible along the South Shore through Friday afternoon. Overall, strong winds are expected to subside Friday morning into the afternoon with the storm moving out and leaving behind quiet weather for Friday night.

WEEKEND STORM: We're still following the potential for a strong Colorado-style low (it may originate more from WY/NE). This will deepen as it moves east and should create a heavy band of snow on its northern side. Models are pretty consistent in taking the bulk of this snow south of our region, targeting southern to perhaps central Minnesota and into Wisconsin. It is still possible that we could see a glancing blow with some moderate to heavy snowfall amounts for places like northwest Wisconsin though. Some warning-level amounts are possible, especially if this storm ends up tracking further north. We will continue to monitor this storm, but right now there is high confidence that there will be a storm and medium confidence on exact storm track.

NEXT WEEK: Early next week is looking chilly with cool northwest flow and possibly some South Shore lake-effect. We may start to see a warming trend mid-week with some precipitation chances. Right now, large storms do not appear imminent.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A quiet forecast period between snowstorms. Blustery northwest winds will subside around sunset. Winds become southeasterly at the tail end of the period ahead of the next clipper. Until then, expect weak ridging tonight and VFR conditions at all terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Light northwest winds are expected through mid Thursday morning. Then, expect a fairly abrupt shift to southeasterly ahead of an approaching clipper system. Winds will increase quickly and become strong Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Expect widespread gales to develop with east to northeast winds Thursday night, becoming north to northwesterly Friday with speeds gradually decreasing as low pressure passes through. Waves in excess of 10 ft are expected at times as well, especially along the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. There is a ~10% chance in seeing some localized storm force gusts around Grand Marais to Grand Portage Thursday night as well. Expect heavy snow and some mixed precipitation through this period as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ020-021. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ010>012-018-019-037. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for MNZ025-026-033>036-038. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for MNZ033-034. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ001>004. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for WIZ006>009. Winter Storm Watch Friday afternoon for WIZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM to 4 PM CDT Friday for WIZ006>009. MARINE...Blizzard Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150.