textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake-effect snow over the South Shore snow belts continues for today into Friday. Total snow accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches are forecast, with localized amounts to 3 inches possible in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties.

- High pressure moves in for the weekend into early next week, with a gradual warming trend starting late this weekend.

- Increasing potential for a transition to a wetter pattern for late next week as low pressure is forecast to move into the Upper Midwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

TODAY INTO FRIDAY:

Light, spotty snow snow showers in central and northeast Minnesota from this past evening have largely ended as drier low-level air begins to work into the area there. Meanwhile, light lake-effect snow showers are ramping up for the South Shore with Lake Superior surface temperatures of 8 to 9 degC and 850 mb temperatures around -8 to -10 degC. Model thermal profiles show 200-300 J/kg of lake-induced instability. However, the atmosphere will only be saturated in the surface to 750-800 mb layer throughout the duration of the lake-effect snow today and Friday, only partially reaching into the dendritic growth zone at times with much drier air above that layer. Therefore, we are not looking at the most efficient lake-effect snow process, which should largely keep snow rates on the light to occasionally moderate level.

Antecedent above-freezing ground temperatures and current above-freezing air temperatures should dampen initial accumulations a bit, but we eventually see portions of the South Shore drop below freezing early to mid morning. Once we reach later this morning through afternoon, high temperatures should once again bounce above freezing into the mid 30s for most locations along the South Shore, limiting daytime accumulation potential. Temperatures falling back below freezing tonight into early Friday should allow for light accumulating snow again before the daytime limiting process to accumulations resumes on Friday. Eventually, by late Friday, a slight warming in 850 mb temperatures and drier air working in alongside north- northwesterly winds should end the lake-effect snowfall.

Overall, additional snowfall amounts remain light, producing 1" to locally 3" in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron counties, with surrounding areas moreso in the dusting to half inch range in other parts of Ashland, Iron, and southeastern Bayfield counties, as well as north-central Wisconsin.

Outside of the South Shore lake-effect snow and clouds, expect dry and mostly cloudy conditions today and mostly sunny skies for the remainder of the area on Friday, with high temperatures in the low to upper 30s both days.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:

High pressure moves into the Great Lakes region for this weekend into early next week along with upper-level ridging which will lead to drier conditions and a slow warming trend. High temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s on Saturday reach widespread 40s to around 50F on Monday and mid 40s to low/mid 50s on Tuesday.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:

Global deterministic and ensemble models still show good agreement on mid- and upper-level troughing sliding into the Four Corners region by Wednesday, with a trough/closed low ejecting northeast into the Upper Midwest sometime around Thursday, which is slightly slower than the forecast from 12-24 hours ago. At the surface, this would also produce a Colorado Low and track that system in the into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Thursday-Friday timeframe, leading to increasing precipitation chances. The majority of global ensembles keep rain as the primary precipitation type as above average temperatures are forecast to stick around into the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

MVFR ceilings scattering or lifting to VFR will continue throughout the afternoon and tonight as dry air continues to filter into the region. A few flurries are possible over HYR for the afternoon, but are not expected to reduce conditions. Winds will remain out of the north at 15 kts or less.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 433 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

UPDATE: The Small Craft Advisory between Duluth and Grand Marais was allowed to expire as wind gusts have dropped to 20 knots or less and are no longer expected to pose a hazard to smaller vessels. The remainder of the Small Craft Advisories continue.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: Northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots continue for much of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters through late this morning, though drop to 20 knots or less early this morning from Duluth to Grand Marais. By this afternoon, the 22 knot-plus northerly winds will briefly move east of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters, but return back to near Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostle Islands to Saxon Harbor for this evening through early Friday morning at up to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

Additionally, light South Shore lake effect snow/rain showers ramp up early this morning and persist into Friday, though the best coverage will be east of the Bayfield peninsula.

Benign, dry weather returns for this weekend with light and variable winds on Saturday and light southwest winds on Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Minimal to no fire weather concerns. Light lake-effect snow ramps up along the South Shore snow belts early this morning and persists into Friday. Most of the south Shore will see no accumulations, with a dusting to one half inch in Iron County, Ashland County, southeastern Bayfield County, and north-central Wisconsin. The exception to this will be 1" to locally 3" in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron Counties.

Outside of the lake-effect snow areas, expect dry conditions for the Northland for today through early next week before a low pressure system brings increasing precipitation chances late next week. Cooler high temperatures largely in the 30s for today through Saturday slowly warm into the 40s to low 50s by Monday and Tuesday. Minimum RH each day for today through Tuesday will primarily be between 40 to 60%, increasing even higher with the returning moisture mid to late next week. Northerly winds gust to 10-18 mph today, become light tomorrow and light and variable on Saturday, and then turn southerly for Sunday into early next week with breezier conditions arriving on Monday and Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ121-145>147. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ140-148-150.