textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A Clipper will bring two rounds of wintry precipitation tonight in to early Friday morning. Light snow and freezing drizzle could lead to travel impacts for the Thursday morning commute.

- High temperatures on Thursday will be unseasonably warm, with highs above freezing for large portions of the area.

- After quiet weather on Friday, an active pattern will likely develop this weekend into early next week with additional chances for Clippers bringing light snow and wintry mix. Temps are likely to remain unseasonably warm into at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Conditions this afternoon have been fairly benign as high pressure over the Great Plains remains in control of the pattern over the Northland. Weak low-level isentropic ascent across northeast MN earlier this afternoon combined with low stratus and favorable low- level moisture led to sporadic flurries, which are beginning to ease. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected to continue into tonight ahead of an approaching Clipper.

The main focus in the forecast is a surge of warm air tonight leading to unseasonably warm temperatures on Thursday and the implications to precipitation type this will have as a Clipper moves through. Relatively light and variable winds this afternoon will be shifting to the southwest tonight, ushering in WAA into the CWA as a trough descends south from Manitoba. The first round of precip develops tonight along the warm front, with precipitation type beginning as snow as temps stay in the teens. Snow amounts tonight into early Thursday morning will range from a trace up to 3", with highest accumulations expected in the tip of the Arrowhead where dynamic forcing and moisture will be most favorable.

Precipitation type becomes much more messy early Thursday morning as freezing drizzle becomes a concern. Hi-res models, both soundings and plan views, show saturation within the 925-850mb layer on Thursday morning and a loss of ice aloft as dry air advection occurs in the 850-500mb layer. Weak isentropic ascent occurring across a large portion of the CWA will bring a 30% chance for the development of widespread freezing drizzle. Freezing drizzle potential diminishes on Thursday afternoon as temps warm above freezing for a large portion of the CWA and isentropic lift diminishes. Overall, this could lead to a glaze of ice for the Thursday morning commute on top of light snow amounts.

A second round of wintry precipitation associated with the Clipper arrives Thursday evening into early Friday morning as a cold front sweeps through the CWA. Precipitation type with this second round will be equally messy as low-level saturation once again occurs with a loss of ice aloft. In addition, there will be the potential for a warm nose in north-central MN in the Brainerd Lakes area that could further lead to potential freezing rain concerns. It's worth noting at this point though that the intrusion of a warm nose is still uncertain given the spatial variations in model guidance. In terms of impacts on Thursday evening into early Friday morning, additional snow accumulations will largely be in the Arrowhead and northwest WI with amounts around an inch or less. Locally higher amounts of 2-3" are expected in the snow belt of Iron and eastern Ashland Counties as light lake effect snow occurs from northwest winds.

Following the departure of this late week Clipper, cloud cover will decrease on Friday. With clear skies expected on Friday night, temperatures will be cold with lows dropping into the negative single digits to negative teens for most of the CWA. The synoptic pattern remains unsettled this weekend into early next week as additional Clippers potentially move through with a strong baroclinic zone remaining over the Upper Midwest. Additional days with high temps above freezing will also be possible early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

MVFR to IFR stratus continues across much of the region early this afternoon. This low stratus will continue to linger through the afternoon, with a brief period of improvement to VFR possible this evening ahead of an approaching Clipper. This Clipper is likely to bring IFR cigs and light snowfall to most terminals tonight into Thursday morning. As saturation is lost aloft early Thursday morning, at least several hours of freezing drizzle will be possible. This could lead to a glaze of ice, with confidence being highest for KINL and KHIB where forcing will be most favorable.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Quiet conditions continue through today with waves under 1 foot. Winds increase from the southwest tonight to 15-25 knots ahead of a clipper with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the North Shore from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage and from Port Wing to the outer Apostle Islands on Thursday morning. A strong cold front Thursday night into Friday will shift winds to the northwest at 20- 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140- 141-146-150.