textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms through this evening, then lingering light showers and sprinkles into Sunday.

- Dry most of Monday, then rain and storms possible Monday night. A few strong storms are possible. Lingering storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening as well.

- Mainly dry Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 70s to around 80.

- Another quick shot of rain is possible Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Rain persists early this afternoon for parts of northeast Minnesota associated with the warm air advection area ahead of a low pressure system that will pass across the Canadian Border into this evening. As we go into this afternoon, an area of clearing in west-central Minnesota will promote some surface-based instability. A cold front passing through later this afternoon and evening should kick off additional showers and thunderstorms. Convective parameters don't look favorable for strong/severe storms with MUCAPE likely around 1000 J/kg and rather straight hodographs. We could have some gusty winds with the storms, but otherwise expecting them to be pretty run- of-the-mill thunderstorms. These should pass through along with the front through this evening, with the threat ending just after midnight.

Cold air advection and a little moisture remaining could keep some sprinkles or light scattered showers around through Sunday morning. With dry northwest flow on Sunday, shower activity looks like it should decrease by midday, but it's not totally out of the realm of possibility that there could be a few pop-up showers Sunday afternoon if there is just enough moisture remaining. Otherwise, I lowered RH a bit from NBM Sunday afternoon as northwest flow has been producing pretty dry RH lately given wildfire influence and just general dry air masses.

High pressure will pass through Sunday night into Monday, leading to quiet weather. Winds will be more southwest on Monday and with lingering dry air, RH may dip pretty low. I lowered RH below NBM again Monday afternoon with some 30-40% min RH values not out of the question.

A passing trough and cold front will introduce another chance for showers and thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and especially Monday night from west to east. The timing of this during the evening and overnight may mean that we end up with some leftover storms from the west with decaying instability. With that said, there could be enough leftover to produce some small hail and gusty winds. Severe chances are looking overall small, but a rogue low-end severe storm can't be totally ruled out (<2% chance).

On Tuesday, there may be a bit of a battleground between post-cold frontal northwesterly flow and wherever the cold front ends up during the afternoon. Some storms could be possible mainly in northwest Wisconsin with a northerly solution, but right now it's looking like that threat is trending south and Tuesday will probably be dry for most places.

Wednesday and Thursday are looking generally dry with high pressure passing through. Temperatures should be roughly seasonal with highs in the 70s to around 80. Around Friday, another cold front is looking possible with potential for some showers and thunderstorms. Strong or severe storms look unlikely at this time. High pressure and quiet weather is favored as we go into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 644 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Ahead of a cold front, an area of showers and storms is moving eastward across the Northland this evening. This activity is already east of BRD and is now moving through INL and HIB. Have used prevailing conditions and tempos to time out the most likely timeframe for impacts at terminals. Cigs are MVFR at most terminals, ahead of the convection, with LIFR heights at INL. As the showers or broken line of storms passes, expect brief vis reductions and west to northwest wind gusts of 20-25kts. There might be a brief period of VFR skies behind the line, before lower cigs and breezy northwest winds return. Depending on coverage of rainfall, fog and cigs below 1kft will be possible through early Sunday morning, with the most likely area of MVFR/IFR conditions to be across the Arrowhead southward to the North Shore.

Scattered VFR cigs expected during the day Sunday, with northwest winds at 10-12kts and gusts to 20kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Breezy northeast winds persist into this evening. As of now, observations and forecast guidance suggest winds remaining at or just below 20 kt for gusts, so no Small Craft Advisories have been issued. However, we may see very brief gusts that could approach 22-23 kt or so. If any conditions develop and remain consistent, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for a few hours. Wave heights have been observed hovering around 2 ft. Some occasional 3 ft waves are possible this afternoon at times. Expect winds to decrease after sunset and switch to northwesterly following a cold front tonight. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible as the front passes through. Severe weather is not expected. Northwest winds persist Sunday with gusts to around 15 kt. Winds switch to southwest Monday some gusts approaching 20-25 kt around Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Small Craft Advisories may be needed up there.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Rain mainly in the Arrowhead early this afternoon will translate to scattered thunderstorms as a cold front passes through this evening. Additional amounts will be variable, but generally around 0.1-0.3" for most places through tonight. Lingering sprinkles are possible into Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon, expect drier conditions. With northwest flow, RH will likely fall into the 40-50% range, especially for areas in the Arrowhead in the vicinity of wildfires. Wind gusts up to 15-20 mph are expected. On Monday, winds switch around to southwesterly, and it will be another drier day. Some places may see RH fall as low as ~35%. Winds are again likely to gust up to 15-20 mph.

Showers and storms are possible with a cold front Monday night. Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be light, but a wetting rain may be possible locally for places that do see thunderstorms. Some more showers and storms are possible Tuesday afternoon/evening mainly in northwest Wisconsin, though the trend for this time period is for storms to track further south.

More dry weather is expected Wednesday-Thursday with RH falling into the ~35-45% range for many places. A cold front Friday could bring another chance for rain/storms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.