textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather continues this afternoon and again Wednesday due to low relative humidity and dry conditions with a bit more wind on Wednesday to complicate fire weather.

- Decreased QPF and delayed PoPs Thursday morning because of incoming precipitation's inability to overcome the dry air in place.

- A risk for isolated severe thunderstorms remains for late Wednesday into Thursday with large hail and damaging winds possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For the rest of the day, expect continued dry and hot conditions across the Northland. A dry airmass remains firmly in place, allowing relative humidity values to fall again this afternoon. This will continue to produce near-critical fire weather conditions across northern Minnesota. Heading into the overnight hours, skies will feature increasing cloud cover, but the weather will remain quiet and dry as the current dry air limits any early precipitation chances.

For Wednesday, we may see some fire weather conditions before the rainfall arrives overnight, though moisture advection is hinted at on guidance in the warm sector. It is likely another near-critical fire weather day for Wednesday. Stronger south to southwest winds will develop, gusting 15 to 25 mph, while minimum relative humidity drops to 20 to 30 percent. Because incoming precipitation is trying to overcome the dry air in place, we knocked QPF down and delayed PoPs for Wednesday. Some hi-rez model trends have backed off on the extensiveness of the rainfall from the approaching cold front, but there is enough variation in the guidance that it is still prudent to hang on to PoPs and QPF even if they are slowed and reduced.

As the front pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday, we will finally see those delayed showers and non-severe thunderstorms materialize. Temperatures on Thursday will cool slightly into the 70s and 80s as the cold front stalls out near the region. Winds will shift to the southwest and west, bringing periodic chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms through Thursday night. If there are any uncontained fires, that wind shift could be problematic.

Looking at the extended forecast for Friday through Monday, the stationary boundary will linger and keep precipitation chances in the mix through early Saturday. Expect daytime highs in the 70s to low 80s on Friday with light variable winds turning easterly. The front pushes south for the weekend, providing a drier and much hotter airmass. Highs will climb back into the upper 80s and low 90s for Sunday and Monday with winds shifting to the southeast at 5 to 15 mph - though as always this time of year cooler by the lake. Precipitation chances will return by Monday afternoon as our next weather maker approaches though not sold on this.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites through the next 24 hours. Light east to southeast winds this afternoon will gradually shift to the south and southwest by Wednesday morning. Wind speeds will increase on Wednesday, with gusts reaching 15 to 20 knots at most terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

For Western Lake Superior, quiet conditions with waves around 1 foot or less and light variable winds are expected for the rest of the day and tonight. Winds will shift to the south and southwest on Wednesday at 10 to 15 knots, bringing waves up to 1 to 3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into Thursday. No small craft advisories are currently in effect.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values dropping to 20 to 30 percent and southerly winds up to 10 mph. Wednesday will see another day of near-critical fire weather as southwest winds increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Relative humidity will fall to 20 to 30 percent. A wind shift will occur with the fropa on Wednesday night and again on Friday. Rain chances increase late Wednesday into Saturday. It's gets warm again, and then more chances for precipitation next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.