textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A little cooler today through Friday while still on the warm side of normal.

- Another warmup Saturday with highs 15-25 degrees above normal.

- Widespread rain chances return Sunday and persist through Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Early this morning, skies remain mostly clear across the Northland, but daytime conditions will turn quite mild and breezy. Temperatures today have been bumped up a few degrees compared to model guidance, as recent model forecasts have consistently been running too cool. Highs will range from the upper 50s to upper 60s. A strong low-level jet and daytime mixing will generate gusty west to northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph. Dewpoints for today have remained consistent, limiting chances for elevated fire weather conditions across our area. Meanwhile, colder air aloft will trigger light showers and sprinkles today in the Arrowhead specifically, though light precipitation could also stretch along the International Border and into northwest Wisconsin before tapering off tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:

The cold front will progress farther southeast across the area tonight. Winds will remain gusty into early evening and may be gusty all night as cold air advection develops. The wind will keep temperatures from falling too far. Lows tonight will be in the low to upper 40s.

A stronger surge of cold air advection arrives Wednesday along with a northwesterly low-level jet. Diurnal heating will support wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Scattered to isolated rain showers may develop during the afternoon in response to the heating beneath colder air aloft. The best chance of a few sprinkles, at least, is found over the Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will be a little cooler than today, though still a few degrees above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Winds will diminish slightly Wednesday night and may remain gusty as cold air advection persists.

Thursday will see temps another few degrees cooler than Wednesday with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s. Northwest winds will not be as strong. Friday temperatures trend a few degrees warmer.

SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:

Heading into the weekend the upper-level pattern is expected to transition from split flow with a quasi-zonal wind field over the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies to a southwesterly pattern with a ridge building over the eastern Great Lakes. Surface low pressure is expected to develop in the lee of the Canadian Rockies Friday as a longwave trough digs into the northern US Rockies.

Warm and moist air advection will develop over the Upper Midwest Saturday morning which will result in well above normal temperatures. Highs in the middle to upper 60s are expected over the eastern Arrowhead with low to middle 70s over north-central and portions of central Minnesota. The warmest temperatures will be in the I-35 corridor east into northwest Wisconsin where upper 70s and low 80s are forecast as of this afternoon. The strongest isentropic ascent will be north of the area over northwest Ontario and precipitation chances are low.

A cold front will move into the region Sunday. Ahead of the front PWATs will increase to 0.75-1.3 inches due to the persistent theta-e advection in the southwest flow aloft. Rain chances will increase for the second half of the weekend in response to the ascent provided by the cold front. The front is forecast to stall over the Upper Midwest keeping isentropic lift and rain chances in the picture Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

There is some fog occurring up and down at HYR and HIB. Since the sun is rising, any leftover patchy fog should dissipate within the next couple hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today. Winds will increase for the majority of the day out of the northwest with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds will decrease again in the mid to late evening. INL could see a few sprinkles in the vicinity of the terminal, but should not affect flight conditions.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

West to northwest winds will increase today to 10 to 20 knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Waves will build to 1 to 3 feet across most near shore waters, reaching 2 to 4 feet across the outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for portions of the nearshore waters through this evening. Winds and waves subside late tonight and Thursday, remaining light into Friday. Gusty winds and building waves return Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

West to northwest winds today will be gusty at 10 to 18 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Dewpoints today have remained consistent, which limits the chances for elevated fire weather conditions. Afternoon relative humidity values will still drop into the 30 to 45 percent range with portions of northwest Wisconsin seeing values near or slightly below 30 percent. Minimum relative humidity values remain between 30 and 50 percent Thursday and Friday with lighter winds. Rain chances return Sunday and persist into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-141>148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ150.