textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers will linger early this morning, mainly over central and north-central Minnesota, ending by midday.

- Gusty northeast winds over western Lake Superior on Monday will bring renewed risks for dangerous rip currents.

- A widespread soaking rain arrives Monday night into Tuesday as tropical moisture streams into the Northland.

- The next frost and freeze potential is next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Scattered showers are continuing to pivot across portions of the Northland early this morning. This activity is tied to a compact shortwave moving across the area, interacting with a plume of moisture. The highest rainfall amounts reported so far of around a half inch are focused around the Brainerd Lakes area. The radar indicates these higher values may extend north to western Koochiching county as well, and that there may be some locally higher values out there. These showers should steadily taper off from west to east through the mid to late morning hours as the shortwave pulls away. For the remainder of today, expect gradually clearing skies as drier air filters into the area. Sunshine will help boost temperatures into the mid 60s to low 70s, with the warmest temperatures across central and north-central Minnesota.

Monday and Tuesday will have busier weather as a deep trough digs into the Rockies and high plains. Moisture return ahead of the trough will have a tropical/monsoonal connection- The trough taps into the rich tropical moisture from Pacific Hurricanes Polo and Odalys and sweeps it northeast across the plains in our direction. Clouds will increase on Monday, and with the mild airmass pushing into the area, we should have a warm day with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. The first wave of precipitation with this system pushes into the area Monday afternoon and night, which is focused mainly on the northwestern portions of the forecast area, north-central Minnesota. Additional waves of rainfall can be expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, progressing to the east to affect the remainder of the forecast area. Embedded thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday, which could enhance local rainfall rates. The precipitation will gradually end on Wednesday as the zone of lift and moisture shifts to our east. After the warm day on Monday, temperatures will be cooler Tuesday, but then warm back to near to above normal temperatures for Wednesday.

A strong cold front is forecast to sweep southeastward across our region Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing a much cooler Canadian airmass into the Great Lakes region. Highs on Thursday through Saturday will fall back into the 50s and low 60s. This cooler airmass will also bring the potential for widespread frost or freeze conditions overnight Thursday night into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

A few rain showers over the area early this morning will gradually move north and diminish over the area this morning. Conditions range from MVFR ceilings for KHYR, KDLH and KHIB, with IFR conditions for KINL and KBRD. Visibilities are currently VFR, but there have been intermittent MVFR conditions with the showers. Conditions for all sites to gradually improve through the day, returning to VFR between 16z and 23z today. With skies becoming clear with light and variable winds, fog is expected to develop tonight. MVFR/IFR visibilities should develop beginning around 04z for most sites, then deteriorating overnight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Southwest winds around 5 to 10 knots this morning will gradually veer to the northwest by tonight. Monday winds will veer to the northeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots. Monday night they will veer still farther to the southeast and then south and become strong and gusty by Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Tuesday, especially along the North Shore between Grand Marais and Grand Portage.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the upcoming week. Lingering moisture from overnight and morning scattered showers will result in minimum relative humidity values staying above 50 percent for this afternoon. Additional moisture moving into the area will keep minimum RH values above 50 percent on Monday. A period of soaking rain is then expected for Monday night through Tuesday night, keeping RH values elevated. Winds will generally be in the 5 to 10 mph range with gusts up to 15 mph through Monday. Winds will also be southwest to westerly today, the southeast to southerly for Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.