textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance of showers and storms returns Friday night through Saturday. Several additional rounds of precip are possible Monday night through Wednesday.

- Widespread rainfall amounts will be low, generally less than 0.05" - A few storms may become strong Saturday and Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

An expansive area of high pressure was located over the Canadian Prairies early this morning and extended into the Upper Midwest. Skies were mainly clear across the Northland with most locations reporting calm winds. Areas of fog were developing as well, mainly across northwest Wisconsin. The signal for fog elsewhere has diminished, but with very small dewpoint depressions, would not be surprised to see more form. With high pressure remaining in control today, little change was made to the going forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Tonight and Friday:

Relatively quiet conditions persist. Rain chances dwindled although there may be enough moisture convergence tonight near MN/WI Highway 70 to support a few showers. Isolated patches of dense fog are possible near the Iron Range, North Shore, and portions of NW WI. Strong northeast winds are forecast over western Lake Superior Friday which will increase the risk of rip currents near the Twin Ports including the beaches of Duluth and Superior. A Beach Hazards Statement will eventually be needed. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s away from Lake Superior. Onshore flow and a lake breeze near the lake will keep temperatures cooler in those locations.

Friday night through Saturday night:

A weak area of low pressure will propagate northeastward from the northern Plains across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Two rounds of showers and perhaps a few isolated storms are possible. Saturday afternoon and evening has a small potential for a few strong storms. NAM and NAMNest guidance both produce a narrow ribbon of MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg though the GFS has a deeper moist adiabatic layer and virtually no instability. Long roughly straight hodographs seem to support a modest potential for large hail and perhaps a few strong wind gusts. Forcing appears broad and unfocused and with limited instability anything other than isolated storms would limit the potential for severe weather. Highs will trend a little cooler thanks to the loitering cloud cover from the overnight showers and storms and will top out in the low 70s along the North Shore to the upper 70s for portions of central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Sunday through Monday:

High pressure will slowly drift through the region Sunday and Monday which will provide quieter conditions. Highs remain near normal in the low 70s to low or middle 80s.

Monday night through Thursday night:

Several rain and storm chances return for the extended period. A cold front will sag southward across the region Tuesday. Storms may develop in the eastern Dakotas Monday afternoon and evening and could move into the Northland overnight which would bring the first chance of showers and storms. The next chance of precipitation would be along the cold front Tuesday. The front will stall out on Wednesday and may lift northward again as a warm front Wednesday night and Thursday, which would support another chance of showers and storms. Temperatures during the period trend toward the cooler portion of the normal range with highs in the low to upper 70s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Fog has developed at some fog prone locations, as well as fog and stratus in an area immediately downstream of Lake Superior near Superior and Ashland. For now it appears this will stay away from the terminals. With high pressure in place, easterly winds around 10 knots or less. KDLH and KBRD should gust to 15 to 20 knots for several hours this afternoon/early evening. Showers with MVFR stratus to spread into KBRD after 07z tonight, but will not move into the remaining terminals until after 12z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Easterly winds are expected to increase today with gusts to 20 to 30 knots in the western arm of the lake and along the South Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into tonight. Winds will weaken overnight before increasing again Saturday afternoon with gusts to 15 to 25 knots in the western arm of the lake. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

Dry conditions will prevail for today and tonight with showers and a few thunderstorms becoming possible on Saturday into Saturday night. No strong or severe storms are expected, but cloud-to-water lightning and locally gusty winds will be possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A mix of clouds and sun today with highs in the 70s to middle 80s. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 35 to 45% range with generally light winds with high pressure in control. However, a lake breeze is expected to push inland during the afternoon and may feature gusts to 15 to 20 mph as it passes. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting Friday night and remaining possible through Saturday evening. Rainfall totals continue to trend downward with most areas seeing less than 0.05". Higher amounts are possible north of a Backus to Bigfork to Crane Lake line. High pressure then returns for Sunday and Monday with good mixing conditions expected. Monday has the best potential to see afternoon RH values fall into the 35 to 40% range across parts of northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota Arrowhead.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ143>146.