textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers arrive from the west for late tonight into tomorrow, mainly for northeastern and north-central Minnesota.

- Additional chances for rainfall this weekend and into early next week as temperatures trend closer to normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

An expansive area of high pressure was centered over southwestern Quebec and stretched west and southwestward into the Upper Midwest and Plains. This was leading to mainly clear skies across the Northland. However, southerly upslope flow across the Northern Plains was leading to an expansive area of cloud cover with some shower activity across North Dakota in association with a mid-level shortwave. Heading into tonight, the surface high pressure will move a bit more to the east as an upper ridge moves overhead. This will bring that southerly flow across the Northland as a warm front approaches from the west. Showers will begin to spread in late tonight across north- central Minnesota and spread across much of northeastern Minnesota through Thursday morning. This activity will weaken as it moves east as it runs into the strong high pressure to our east and dry air in the low levels. Models have continued their upward trend in rainfall amounts across north-central Minnesota with a quarter to a half inch being possible along with isolated higher amounts to near three-quarters of an inch from the Brainerd area northward into western Koochiching County. Rainfall amounts fall off quickly to the east with little to no rain expected across northwest Wisconsin and along the immediate North Shore. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s with the warmest temperatures across northwest Wisconsin.

Friday looks mainly dry with surface high pressure and upper ridging in place. Southerly flow will also persist and bring warmer air into the region giving highs in the 60s and lower 70s, coolest along the North Shore. The upper ridge axis will shift to our east on Saturday as another shortwave lifts northeastward along the periphery of the ridge across the Northern Plains. This will bring another chance for showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder to mainly northeastern Minnesota Saturday into Saturday night. Guidance has trended downward with QPF amounts over the last few runs with this system. Highs this weekend will remain in the 60s with a few low 70s.

The pattern looks to remain active into next week with multiple chances for rainfall. A stronger area of low pressure looks to move from the Plains through the Great Lakes during this time period. While the operational GFS and ECMWF show this system, there are timing and magnitude differences between them with the GFS being quicker and more compact. In either case, widespread beneficial rainfall looks possible. Temperatures will remain above normal to start the week before trending cooler with upper 50s and lower 60s by Wednesday. These values would actually be near to slightly below normal for late September.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region early this afternoon with a few lingering pockets of MVFR cu/stratus north of the Brainerd Lakes area and along the North Shore. Ceilings will lower overnight into Thursday morning as a warm front approaches from the west and showers spread in. These showers will mainly affect the Minnesota terminals with MVFR VSBYs and ceilings lowering to MVFR to IFR. The lowest ceilings are expected at BRD and INL. Showers are expected to be generally light, but brief reductions to IFR VSBYs cannot be ruled out in any stronger showers. Winds will generally remain under 10 knots, although some gustier winds to 15 to 20 knots will be seen at times this afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Northeasterly winds gusting to 15 to 20 knots will persist this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Winds become southerly tonight before turning northeasterly again for Thursday at 6 to 12 knots. Looking ahead to Friday, easterly winds of 5 to 15 knots are expected. Showers will be possible tomorrow with perhaps an isolated lightning strike, but storms are generally not expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Dry conditions this afternoon will give way to increasingly wetter conditions for tonight into Thursday. Minimum RH values this afternoon will bottom out in the 45 to 55% range across northeastern Minnesota with values in the 35 to 50% range across northwest Wisconsin, lowest in the Pine Barrens. Showers will spread across Minnesota tonight into tomorrow morning, but not much of this activity is expected to reach Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts have trended upward from previous forecasts with areas west of a Crane Lake to Virginia to McGrath line possibly receiving a quarter to a half inch of rainfall. Despite not seeing much rainfall, northwest Wisconsin will see minimum RH values above 50% tomorrow afternoon with widespread cloud cover. Additional rain chances are expected this weekend. Winds today will be southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph with a few higher gusts in far western areas and near Lake Superior, where winds will be more easterly than southeasterly.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...None.