textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall is expected early this week as a large low pressure system moves through the Upper Midwest. Amounts of at least 1" are expected across the area today through Wednesday.

- There is the potential for more significant rain totals today through Wednesday in excess of 2 to 3 inches, especially in north- central Minnesota and in the higher terrain of the North Shore.

- A drier pattern with cooler temperatures is favored to develop in the latter half of the week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Overcast skies are occurring early this morning ahead of approaching low pressure. A deep trough is currently moving through the Intermountain West early this morning, which will be propagating a sfc low into the central CONUS and Upper Midwest early this week. Similar to the previous forecast update, QPF is expected to be anomalously high, exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology. Expect widespread rain to move across the CWA today as the deformation zone of the large low pressure moves through. While precip will mostly be moderate rain, there will be a few embedded rumbles of thunder likely.

Rainfall rates are anticipated to lessen tonight through Tuesday morning as the dry conveyor belt brings a shot of drier air into the CWA. While rain is unlikely to end completely across the region, coverage will go from widespread to much more scattered during this time period. Redevelopment of more widespread rain is forecast to occur Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night as a shortwave dives south from northern Manitoba and causes the deep trough to shift into the Upper Great Lakes region. As the deep trough moves farther east, this will allow for additional Gulf moisture advection.

One major change made in the forecast update this morning is an overall increase in total QPF amounts. Run-to-run model comparisons maintain higher amounts of QPF in the 1-2" range and the latest NBM probability of 2" or greater of rainfall in north-central MN and the North Shore terrain ridge are exceeding an 80% chance. These high probabilities are also reflected in total QPF from the REFS, which further increases confidence in higher rainfall amounts. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible, as the 75th percentile of QPF from the REFS in north-central MN shows the potential for 3+" by early Wednesday morning. With D1 to D4 drought persisting across the CWA, this widespread and soaking rain will certainly be welcome.

Light rain will gradually taper off from west to east Wednesday night through Thursday as the center of the low pressure system briefly stalls over the Northland and then slowly departs downstream. As this low pressure departs the region, cooler air filters in, with high temps being noticeably cooler in the 40s on Thursday.

High pressure builds into the CWA starting late Thursday, bringing an end to the wet pattern. Drier conditions will prevail for the end of the week, with some breaks in the clouds occurring on Friday into the weekend. While skies are still favored to see at least partly cloudy skies, there will be more sunshine than what we will be seeing early this week. The cooler temps that arrive on Thursday persist on Friday through the weekend with near normal highs in the 40s and overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1153 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain showers will continue for TAF period, causing MVFR/IFR conditions to linger at all terminals. There may be some improvement in the morning before the next round of rain showers brings conditions back down again. LLWS is also expected at DLH at DLH, HYR, and BRD this afternoon as the low level jet moves through aloft.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Southeast to east winds will be increasing today as a large area of low pressure moves into the Upper Great Lakes region. Winds have increased slightly in the latest forecast update and therefore a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from oak Point to Saxon Harbor this afternoon into tonight as winds gust up to 25 knots. In addition, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued from Silver Bay to Grand Portage, as southeasterly winds today will bring the potential for elevated waves up to 5 feet, in addition to brief afternoon gusts up to 25 knots. Expect widespread rain to occur today, becoming more scattered tonight into Tuesday morning. Additional widespread rain returns Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Significant rainfall occurring early this week as a large area of low pressure slowly moves through the Upper Midwest will keep fire weather concerns minimal. Total rainfall today through Wednesday is expected (70-100% chance) to be at least 1" across the region. Higher amounts of 2-3" are certainly not out of the question today through Wednesday, especially in north-central MN and in the higher terrain of the North Shore. Expect southeast winds to become strong this afternoon and evening, gusting 20-30 mph. Winds ease and become more variable on Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure moves through. Expect winds to shift to the north-northwest across the region by Thursday morning following a cold front, with a drier pattern moving in for Friday into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140>142-148.