textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain, mixing with snow early this morning, will continue today as low pressure moves through. Expect rain to taper off this afternoon into the evening.

- Snow amounts on grassy surfaces are forecast to be a trace to 0.4" around the western Iron Range to central Itasca County. Expect this snow to melt by this afternoon as high temps warm to the upper 40s.

- An active pattern continues around mid-week into the weekend with multiple chances for rain and the potential for isolated thunderstorms on Wednesday. High temps will be trending above normal for the remainder of this week and upcoming weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 140 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Low pressure continues to move north into the CWA early this morning as a negatively-tilted shortwave trough propagates into the Upper Midwest. One major change made during the forecast update early this morning was to decrease low temperatures this morning by several degrees based on observations. With this cooler trend along and north of the Iron Range, this does introduce slightly higher snow accumulations of a trace to 0.4" this morning. Expect highest snow accumulations to be around the western Iron Range into central Itasca County. Any snow accumulations are still expected to quickly melt today as high temps warm into the upper 40s.

Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with a fairly active pattern settling over the CWA this week. Please see the previous discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

The previous discussion has been edited with the 140 AM update to remove the "Rest of Today" section, which covered Monday afternoon.

THIS EVENING - TUESDAY:

For this evening and tonight, expect the aforementioned low pressure system to continue sliding northeastward towards the Upper Midwest in conjunction with a negatively-tilted mid-level trough. As moisture advects northward with this system, light to moderate rainfall will gradually expand northward across the Northland, reaching near the International Border by around sunrise Tuesday. With surface temperatures dropping to the upper 20s to around freezing in north-central Minnesota, the Iron Range, and inland portions of the Arrowhead tonight into early Tuesday morning, some of this rainfall could see a mix of pockets of very light snow or briefly over to all snow. However, with temperatures quickly warming above freezing around and after sunrise, the timeframe of snowfall for any specific location would be on the order of 1-2 hours. Combining that with low snow-to-liquid ratios of 3 to 1 or less and warm ground temperatures in the 40s, only around 0.1" to no snow accumulation is expected, and would mainly be on grassy surfaces.

Light to moderate rainfall continues on Tuesday, gradually ending from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening as the low pressure system slides through and then exits northeast of the Northland. Forecast rainfall totals for the rest of today through Tuesday evening range from 0.05 to 1", being lowest in far north-central Minnesota, and highest (i.e., 0.50" to locally 1") from the Brainerd Lakes east into the St. Croix River Valley. We also can't rule out a 10-20% for a few stray rain showers/sprinkles in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday night, but additional accumulation amounts will be negligible at best.

Temperatures quickly climb on Tuesday into the mid 40s to around 50 degrees for high temperatures in most of northeast Minnesota and mid to upper 50s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconisn.

WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

On Wednesday, mid-level shortwave troughing energy moving across the Dakotas in conjunction with another, weaker low-pressure system moving northeast across South Dakota through Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin will bring additional rain to the Northland (60-95% chance), with the highest accumulation potential in the afternoon and evening hours. Some steeper mid- level lapse rates will provide just enough potential for MUCAPE values up to around 200 J/kg Wednesday afternoon and evening, which could lead to a few embedded rumbles of thunder with the rain. Rain then comes to an end late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. The quicker, more progressive nature of the Wednesday rain should cap rainfall amounts a bit, with forecast accumulations generally on the order of 0.2-0.5" for most of the Northland, lowest in north-central Wisconsin.

Seasonally warm temperatures are in store for Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s in northeast Minnesota and mid to upper 60s in east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin.

LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND:

Precipitation chances in the forecast for Thursday and Friday have trended dry as surface high pressure slides through the Upper Midwest under mainly zonal flow aloft. Global ensembles suggest a change to southwesterly flow aloft for this coming weekend, though precipitation chances and the location of embedded shortwave energy to drive those precipitation chances remain more uncertain. For now, we are holding near the NBM mean for precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday with a broad 25-45% chance PoPs. We do have higher confidence in the warmer than normal temperatures persisting through this coming weekend, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and slightly cooler near Lake Superior due to onshore easterly flow. Saturday night and Sunday night low temperatures are also forecast to remain above freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Predominantly IFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. HYR may remain MVFR for most of the day, but expect IFR ceilings there tonight. Expect winds to become blustery from the east to southeast today. Rain will be prevalent through the morning, then dissipating in coverage from south to north in the afternoon. Lingering moisture will lead to some fog into this afternoon and evening. MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected at times through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 140 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

East to southeast winds will be increasing early this morning as low pressure moves through the Upper Midwest, gusting 25 to 30 knots by mid-morning into the early afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the North Shore to Twin Ports and to the Apostle Islands due these breezy winds and building waves along portions of the North Shore up to 5 feet. Winds weaken this evening into Wednesday, becoming south to southwesterly as the low pressure system exits northeast of the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Widespread rain showers will continue to lift north across the area this morning as low pressure moves through the area, with snow mixing in along and north of the Iron Range as temps have dipped below freezing. Any minimal snow accumulation that occurs on grassy surfaces is expected to melt by this afternoon. Anticipate breezy east to southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph today, shifting to the southwest and easing this evening as the low pressure exits the region.

Additional chances for rain are forecast on Wednesday, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Watch out for gusty and erratic winds around any thunderstorms. Expect wind to shift to the northwest on Wednesday night following a cold front. The next chance for rain arrives this upcoming weekend into early next week with temperatures trending above normal.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141- 142. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146- 147-150.