textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms spread across the Northland tonight through Monday. Non-severe thunderstorms are expected, along with widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8".

- A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous severe storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday. Widespread rainfall in excess of at least 0.5" is likely.

- Hot temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday when afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Heat Advisories may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY INTO MONDAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great Lakes will bring the next chance of precipitation into the region overnight tonight into Monday. The first couple leading showers and thunderstorms could arrive into the Brainerd Lakes as early as 7- 10pm this evening, but should be short lived, as they will be mostly diurnally driven. Better upper level forcing arrives overnight into early Monday morning, when we should expect to see a blossoming of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms into the Northland. These continue through the day Monday, gradually moving out of the area through the afternoon and evening. No severe storms are expected with this disturbance, and the area should see anywhere from 0.1- 0.8" of rain, highest amounts towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest in the MN Arrowhead. A few lucky folks might even get to measure over an inch on Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north- central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and shear, and a strong mid level jet. Any severe potential on Tuesday is somewhat limited for the Northland however, due to the timing of the front coming in overnight, which will make for a battle between that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition. Still, the environment might be able to MacGyver together a strong to severe storm or two. Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area, buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all hazards. There is some uncertainty with this setup, as the front continues to trend faster and lingering precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could make things messy. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a widespread 0.5"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few areas in NW WI approaching Excessive Heat Warning thresholds on Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler temperatures. We stay in a zonal flow pattern into the weekend, stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at time, but nothing significant is expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

VFR conditions continue through this evening before areas of showers and thunderstorms start to move in overnight and through Monday, deteriorating conditions. There is a slight chance for some evening showers and thunderstorms at BRD between 7-10pm today, but the better, higher confidence period of precipitation should begin early Monday morning and then continue through the day. Expected widespread showers and thunderstorms with ceilings gradually decreased into MVFR and then IFR levels at all sites through the morning hours. Gusty south to southeast winds continue through the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Northeast winds continue over the next couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest today, with some gusts of 20-30 knots possible this afternoon. Monday and Tuesday should see some afternoon gusts of 10-15 knots, but no additional small craft advisories are expected at this time. Patchy, transient areas of dense fog are likely through the next day or two. At times it could become widespread enough to warrant dense fog advisories. Expect showers and thunderstorms through the day Monday, but no severe weather is expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

More ample moisture is expected to move into the Northland this week, after one last dry day this afternoon. Breezy southeast winds and afternoon RH down around 30% has led to the continuation of a near-critical fire weather SPS for northern St. Louis, northern Itasca, and Koochiching counties. Areas of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms push into the area overnight into Monday morning, then continuing through the day. By Tuesday morning, expected rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8", with some locally higher values up to 1" for those areas that see the most robust thunderstorms, most likely in the Brainerd Lakes area. More thunderstorms return Tuesday into Wednesday along a cold front moving from west to east. Scattered to numerous severe storms may be possible with this, especially on Wednesday. This should be an even more robust rain producer however, with widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.5- 0.75"+ likely.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>146.