textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonally warm temperatures are expected through Tuesday with very limited to no chances for precipitation.

- Breezy northwest winds today, especially this morning along the North Shore where gusts of 30 to locally 40 mph are forecast.

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday night through Thursday will bring lake- effect snow to portions of northwest Wisconsin. Light snow accumulations are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

CURRENT OVERNIGHT - TODAY:

A dry cold front is currently moving southeast across northeast Minnesota and the Twin Ports and will move through northwest Wisconsin through early this morning. This will switch winds to westerly and northwesterly and bring increasing clouds behind the front. Expect the immediate frontal passage to remain dry given dry low to middle portions of the atmosphere. Lows bottom out in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees, though slightly warmer near Lake Superior.

Breezy northwest winds with gusts of 20 to 30 mph develop for today in many locations before weakening rapidly toward sunset. Some wind gusts of 30 to locally 40 mph are forecast for the North Shore from early this morning through midday, particularly for the higher terrain ridge. There is some signal in the models for these winds to reach lower elevations near Lake Superior as katabatic winds, but this is not certain and will bear watching early this morning. If that were to occur, some brief gale-force gusts may push into the nearshore waters for areas around Silver Bay to Grand Portage. Despite the dry frontal passage, cyclonic flow and some shortwave energy passing though the Borderlands into portions of the Arrowhead could produce brief sprinkles and perhaps a few very light showers. Very little to no precipitation accumulation is expected from this activity. High temperatures will be about 5-7 F on warm side of normal today ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s, warmest in east- central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin.

MONDAY - TUESDAY:

Monday and Tuesday will be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday and mid 40s to mid 50s on Tuesday. This period looks largely dry. There will be a cold frontal passage on Monday and with the main energy with the shortwave trough mainly post-frontal. CAMs are suggesting some low-precipitation potential with the front late Monday morning into afternoon for northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead, but a wedge of dry air in the 700 mb to surface layer favors the frontal passage being dry without precipitation reaching the ground. The chance for any measurable precipitation (0.01" or greater) is less than 20%.

REST OF THIS WEEK:

No significant changes from the previous forecast. A lobe of mid-level vorticity moves north to south across the Northland Tuesday night through Thursday, bringing colder 850 mb temperatures (-5 to -10 degC) with it that will promote light lake-effect precipitation along the South Shore due to a relatively warm Lake Superior water surface of 7 to 10 degC above zero. While this precipitation will be largely rain daytime Wednesday, precipitation transitions to mainly snow Wednesday evening into daytime Thursday. Synoptic moisture with this system is limited, so snowfall accumulations look light at this time for the South Shore snowbelts. Precipitation is forecast to come to an end by late Thursday with a dry Friday as drier air and high pressure move into the Upper Midwest.

Near-normal temperatures set up for the middle to later portion of the work week with high temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s before warming above normal again next weekend as southerly winds return at the surface and ridging aloft approaches from the west.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions currently over the Northland as of 0530Z. A cold front will march northwest to southeast during the overnight period veering winds to out of the west and northwest. A strong low level jet will also lead to LLWS concerns during the current overnight into the pre-dawn hours on Sunday. The latest guidance is continuing to point to a MVFR stratus deck moving in from the north behind the exiting cold front, including MVFR ceilings at INL/HIB/DLH, with HYR being on the southwestern extent of SCT to BKN MVFR ceilings. Expect a return to VFR ceilings towards or shortly after sunset at these terminals on Sunday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

A southeastward-progressing cold front is sliding through western Lake Superior during the current overnight hours, shifting winds to westerly and then to northwesterly for daytime today. Gusts of 20 to 30 knots persist through the morning and gradually weaken through the afternoon and early evening hours. There is some signal for katabatic winds to stream down the terrain of the North Shore from Silver Bay to Grand Portage from around 5 AM - 12 PM CST and potentially produce periodic gale- force gusts within a few nautical miles of the shoreline. This will bode close watching this morning. At this time, we have held off on any Gale Warning issuance as the threat looks fairly limited in time and coverage. Waves of 3 to 6 along parts of the North Shore during the current overnight will shift to the Outer Apostle Island and parts of the South Shore early this morning through today before diminishing late today and this evening. Small Craft Advisories are in effect through early this evening for all nearshore waters.

Winds become light and variable tonight and then southwesterly on Monday with gusts of 15 to 20 knots before turning northwesterly behind a cold front Monday evening and night with additional potential for 20 to 25 knot gusts along portions of the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low this week with minimum relative humidity values generally in the 40 to 60% range or higher, being lowest on Tuesday. A cold front moving southeast across the area early this morning will create breezy northwest winds in its wake for today. Gusty winds of 20-30 mph are expected, with higher gusts of 30 to locally 40 mph for the North Shore early this morning through midday. Winds quickly weaken to light and variable this evening and tonight and then veer from southerly to westerly on Monday with gusts of 10-20 mph as a cold front moves through the area. Westerly winds with gusts of 10-18 mph are forecast for Tuesday, then turn northerly Wednesday and Thursday with gusts of 15 mph or less.

Largely dry conditions persist through daytime Tuesday, though some sprinkles/very light rain showers (10-20% chance) can't be completely ruled out in the Arrowhead and Borderlands this morning, as well as Monday late morning into afternoon (less than 20% chance). Little to no accumulating precipitation is expected. Tuesday night into Thursday, light precipitation chances return to portions of northwest Wisconsin, particularly the South Shore, as light lake-effect precipitation develops. This precipitation should be mainly light rain through Wednesday, then change to primarily snow Wednesday evening into Thursday. Snow accumulation potential looks light at the moment.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 140>143-146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ144- 145.