textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers across northern MN this morning with some showers and storms possible across our southern counties late this afternoon into tonight. No severe weather is expected.

- Isolated showers and with possibly a couple embedded storms are expected again Saturday along the International Border.

- Cooler than normal temperatures this weekend through early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

High res models are having a hard time capturing expected showers and embedded storms from the vertically stacked low previously mentioned. Increased chances for precipitation along the International Border as this continued cold air advection and upper level forcing with this system will likely lead to these diurnal showers and embedded storms today and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Widespread cloud cover has engulfed most of the region this afternoon as a surface low pressure works its way across IA and northeast towards WI. Farther to the northwest we have a cold front marching across the Northern Plains and entering the Lake of the Woods area. Both of these features will be aided by a strong upper level jet with a trough pushing across the Northern Plains sending a lobe of PVA over the region. While the deepest moisture will be confined to the aforementioned surface low pressure we will see some PWATs of over an inch seeping into NW WI. With the moisture in play combined with the synoptic forcing overhead we will see some rain showers spread in from the south through the afternoon and evening hours. Plenty of bulk shear aloft with the jet overhead but fairly limited on instability keeping severe weather at bay. Farther northwest along the cold front we could see another area of precipitation develop with isolated storms possible. Along the front we are seeing some favorable surface vorticity with steep low level lapse rates. This may lead to some funnels developing. The most favorable vorticity is expected to cruise through the Brainerd Lakes region before dissipating after 8PM. Overall, expecting some light rain showers with some embedded storms through the evening with activity tapering off in the early morning hours.

Friday:

The aforementioned cold front will be slowly decaying as it crosses the region on Friday with some lingering showers possible in the morning hours as weak impulses weave through a meridional set up. Temperatures across northern MN will be slightly cooler with a warm front building back in from the south. Highs in the north will be in the upper 60s with mid 70s across our south. Expect gusty west winds with some diurnally driven showers in the afternoon. Better chances for shower and isolated thunderstorm development will be in the late afternoon and evening hours across our south in the warmer air. A small low level jet is expected to increase across southern MN during this time contributing to the precipitation chances. Activity will persist into NW WI until Saturday morning when the jet shifts east and weakens.

Weekend-Monday:

A vertically stacked low pressure will be churning its way through Ontario keeping the region in cyclonic flow aloft. This will keep temperatures cooler than normal with the weekend highs largely in the 60s. Diurnal heating paired with some low level moisture wrapping around the low pressure will lead to isolated showers at times.

Tuesday into Late Week:

Cluster analysis keeps a broad area of low pressure over the Great Lakes region through the period but ever so slightly shifting east each day. This subtle shift will allow the ridge to the west to weaken a bit and allow for some additional intrusions aloft. Not a great deal agreement between the deterministic guidance on these intrusions with the Euro bringing the first shortwave in on Tuesday reintroducing more widespread showers and possible thunderstorms. For now, the NBM is carrying a 20-40% chance of rain in the afternoon. The pattern may remain active into the late week as an upper level jet digs into the Central Plains allowing for deeper troughing to move across the Northland.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Lingering cold air advection under cyclonic flow aloft will kick off scattered showers with a few embedded storms in two rounds today through tonight. The first will be this morning into early evening near INL, and the second from near or just south of BRD east to HYR as early as late this afternoon, but the best potential this evening into tonight as a low-level jet increases. High resolution weather model guidance still varies quite a bit for the northward extent and timing of this second round, so kept precipitation mention out of BRD for now. HYR has the better potential to see precipitation, with the window of best potential in a prevailing shower group. It is possible that rain lasts from this evening through early Saturday at HYR if some of the more active weather model solutions come to fruition. Today will see strong westerly winds with gusts up to 25 to 30 kt, though gusts ease near and after sunset this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Southwest winds over western Lake Superior will increase early this morning with the departing low pressure system, quickly exceeding 20 kts - especially closer to shore. This will lead to conditions hazardous to small craft, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Winds will temporarily decrease overnight before increasing again Saturday, when another Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across most of western Lake Superior near shores.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Lower dewpoints have returned, and minimum RHs in the 30s return for the weekend. Some areas of northeast Minnesota could see as low as 25% on Sunday. Winds will remain gusty each day, with sustained winds 15-20 mph today with gusts 25-30 mph. Sustained will be a little lower Saturday, but gusts up to 25 mph will remain. Sunday will continue to be a day to watch for near critical fire weather conditions. However, despite the low RHs in the afternoon, there is a small chance for scattered showers and a few embedded storms today and Saturday, particularly across our south and the International Border. Though, any rainfall is not expected to exceed a quarter inch.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 145>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>144.