textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected to begin Monday and continue through the week. A daily thaw is likely with highs in the upper 30s and 40s and some areas could see lows remain above freezing mid to late week.

- A couple weak systems to the north could bring areas of flurries to the Borderlands Monday - Tuesday.

- A large system may impact the Northland late this week into the early weekend. Depending on exact storm track and temperatures, accumulating mixed precipitation could impact the Northland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

High pressure is leading to a sunny but chilly day today with high temps in the teens to mid 20s. This is the last time that our high temperatures will be this cold for at least the next week.

Into next week, temperatures warm as upper level troughing pushes east and we find ourselves stuck in the synoptic doldrums. Persistent upper level ridging over the gulf and troughing over the southwest will advect copious amounts of moisture and warmth into the south-central CONUS. We should be right on the edge of this relatively tropical airmass, allowing our daytime highs to easily rise above freezing Monday and beyond. Monday, areas along and south of Hwy 2 could see 40F. By Wednesday, widespread high temperatures in the mid to high 40s with some pockets of 50F are likely for everyone away from Lake Superior. Generally, we should see a refreeze at night at least for the first half of the week but as WAA reaches its max later in the week, southern portions of the CWA may struggle to get back below 32F.

These temperatures, combined with likely fog development and a higher March sun angle are going to lead to some snowpack transformation and melt. For areas with only a couple inches left on the ground, this will probably melt and sublimate, though it could take a day or two into the week for the snow temperature to warm enough to really start eating away at that already meager snowpack from the Brainerd Lakes the the St. Croix River Valley. Further north where the snowpack is more substantial and around Lake Superior, some transformation and settling should occur first, but with persistent days above freezing a very gradual melt could begin by mid to late week. By the coming weekend, we might see a little response in area rivers but no flooding is anticipated at this time.

A couple little systems to the north will probably bring some clouds to the area through early this week, and may be able to squeeze out some flurries occasionally for the Borderlands Monday and Tuesday.

We continue to monitor the Fri-Sat timeframe for a Colorado Low type system that could move over MN/WI. Global models are in decent agreement for a system that will be able to take advantage of the primed moisture/warmth building in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and bring precipitation into the Upper Midwest. Depending on the track and intensity of this system, some areas of heavy mixed precipitation (rain, freezing rain, snow) could be possible. Our forecast at the moment is primarily rain with some light snow on the backside, but lots could change at this time range.

Once that system moves through, additional warm days are seeming more likely for next weekend before we could potentially cool into a more normal temperature regime (largely back below freezing) going into mid March. The pattern does potentially remain fairly active looking ahead, so we could have more shots at accumulating precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Gusty southwest winds pick up into Monday morning and a brief period of some LLWS is possible early Monday morning at INL, DLH, and HIB before those winds mix down to the surface.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Fairly calm conditions under high pressure today light winds out of the west. Through this evening, winds turn to become southwesterly into Monday. Those SW winds could increase into Monday as warm air surges into the area. Some gusts in excess of 20-25 knots are likely Monday, with gusts in excess of 35 knots along portions of the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. A Gale Warning has been issued for that zone with Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. Calmer conditions return into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM CST Monday for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for LSZ141>146-148-150.