textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A warmup is expected today with high temps 10-15 degrees above normal. A little cooler through the rest of the week while still on the warm side of normal.

- Sparse rain chances return late this week. A more widespread chance of rain will arrive early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

As skies clear from west to east through the morning hours, an unseasonably warm air mass will build over the Northland today. High temperatures will rise significantly, reaching 10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs climbing into the upper 60s and 70s. Southerly winds will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph across northwest Wisconsin and near Lake Superior where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. The cold front will push southeastward across the region this evening, veering winds quickly to the northwest and easing overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:

Skies will clear from west to east during the day and temperatures will trend warmer in the wake of the warm front. Look for highs Tuesday to reach the middle 60s to middle 70s, around 10-15 degrees above normal. Gusty southerly winds are expected over northwest Wisconsin into the I-35 corridor of Minnesota as the low-level jet gradually weakens and pushes eastward during the day. Gusts of 15-25 mph are expected with the highest values east of a Hayward to Bayfield line.

A cold front will advance southeastward across northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin by early Tuesday evening. Winds will veer northwesterly behind the cold front and will gradually weaken during the evening. Low temps will be in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:

Northwest flow is forecast in the wake of Tuesday's cold front. Temperatures will cool slightly while remaining several degrees above normal. Diurnal shower chances are expected as colder air aloft advects east-southeast over the Northland. Highs will be in the low 60s to near 70 on Wednesday then upper 50s to middle 60s Thursday and Friday.

SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:

A more unsettled pattern takes shape Saturday into early next week. Guidance indicates an upper-level ridge will move into the northern Plains and Canadian Prairies Friday night and Saturday morning. A low pressure system is forecast to develop over eastern Montana and ride northeastward toward James Bay by Sunday morning. That progression will pull another warm front northward across the region with temperatures climbing well above normal for Saturday. Light rain showers are possible ahead of the front Saturday. A cool front will follow on Sunday and will stall out over the Upper Midwest Sunday night and Monday leaving a baroclinic zone in place across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Widespread shower chances are forecast Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the TAF period. Lingering low level wind shear will remain in the vicinity of HYR through the mid morning under a low level jet before winds increase at the surface. Winds will also quickly turn from southwest to northwest this afternoon with the passage of a dry cold front. Despite the wind direction change, winds will remain gusty up to 20 kts throughout the afternoon before diminishing this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through late this afternoon for most nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior for south to southwest winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and waves 1 to 4 feet. Winds veer westerly tonight and ease to 5 to 10 knots. Gusty west to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots will return Wednesday, and another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds and waves subside Wednesday night into Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph today will veer westerly by late afternoon. Dry conditions and gusty west to northwest winds of 10 to 18 mph with gusts of 20 to 30 mph are forecast on Wednesday behind a cold front. Afternoon relative humidity values on Wednesday will drop into the 30 to 45 percent range, with portions of northwest Wisconsin seeing RH values below 30 percent. Minimum RH values remain 30 to 50 percent Thursday and Friday with lighter winds. Rain chances return late weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 140-148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146-147.