textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall becomes more scattered in coverage and lighter intensity late this evening and overnight.

- Rain showers continue through Wednesday, with some lake effect rain showers to linger Thursday for portions of the South Shore.

- Cooler and drier conditions will arrive for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rain showers are in full swing this afternoon, and will continue tonight through Tuesday and Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is still expected this afternoon and evening with this initial wave of moisture pushing through our region ahead of a deepening low pressure system. A few embedded rumbles of thunder remain possible across parts of the Northland through this evening. Strong southeasterly winds will gust between 25 and 35 mph before easing later tonight. As a dry conveyor belt works into the area overnight, widespread rain will transition to more scattered showers. This will lead to a lull in rain intensity tonight before a second round follows with another shortwave on Tuesday. Given ongoing D1 to D4 drought conditions across the Northland, this soaking rain brings welcome relief.

Widespread soaking rain will redevelop across the area on Tuesday as a shortwave dives south from northern Manitoba and reinforces the trough over the Upper Great Lakes, drawing an influx of Gulf moisture into the region. Rainfall will expand in coverage by Tuesday afternoon and turn heavy at times heading into Tuesday night. Orographic enhancement over the North Shore will likely lead to an additional 1.5-2 inches after this evening, while most others will only see an inch to inch and a half. Rain showers will continue through Tuesday night across the entire Northland, with elevated instability supporting an isolated thunderstorm risk in parts of northwest Wisconsin.

The low pressure system will briefly slow over the area throughout Wednesday, causing showers to continue through Wednesday. Rain will remain persistent and widespread across our region before gradually tapering from west to east late Wednesday night as the center of the system begins a sluggish shift downstream. Multi-day storm total rainfall will broadly reach 1 to 2 inches across the Northland, with localized totals exceeding 2 to 3 inches in north-central Minnesota and along the higher terrain of the North Shore. Winds will veer northwesterly Wednesday afternoon as a cooler airmass begins filtering into western areas.

On the back end of the second system, northwest flow of cooler air over Lake Superior will lead to a few light showers over Ashland and Iron counties into Thursday. For the rest of the Northland, rain will taper off early Thursday morning as the low departs. A noticeably cooler airmass will overspread the region on gusty northwest winds, causing daytime temperatures to struggle in the lower to mid 40s. High pressure begins building into the Upper Midwest late Thursday and maintains control through Friday. This brings an end to the active wet pattern and allows some sunshine to break through mostly cloudy skies.

Drier and quiet conditions will persist into the weekend as high pressure shifts eastward across the Great Lakes. Saturday will remain largely precipitation-free with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. A weak upper-level disturbance will introduce a slight 20 percent chance of light rain showers Saturday night into Sunday, though no significant accumulation is anticipated. Quiet weather returns Sunday afternoon with seasonably cool air maintaining overnight lows down into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions areawide continue tonight even as the heaviest rainfall lifts northward into Ontario early this evening. Expect continued widely scattered rain showers even in the dry slot setting up into central Minnesota presently, no less of mist as well from the LIFR ceilings at some terminals. Winds shift from east and southeast to northerly in northern Minnesota towards daybreak Tuesday morning, while remaining southerly to southwesterly in northwest Wisconsin. Another uptick in rain shower coverage is expected again Tuesday as another low pressure system rotates through the broad central United States troughing.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 4 PM this afternoon until 2 AM CST Tuesday for Grand Portage to Silver Bay and Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. East to southeast winds of 10 to 20 knots will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon and evening, building waves to 2 to 5 feet along the North Shore and 1 to 2 feet along the South Shore. Winds ease late tonight into Tuesday morning before turning northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, maintaining waves of 1 to 3 feet. Showers will continue through Wednesday with variable winds becoming northwest and gusty late Wednesday into Thursday. Additional headlines may be required during this timeframe.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Significant rainfall across the region early this week will keep fire weather concerns minimal through midweek. Total rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will provide notable moisture to dry soils. Southeast winds will remain strong this afternoon and evening, gusting between 20 and 35 mph, before easing and becoming more variable Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure moves through. Following a cold front passage, winds shift to the north-northwest across the area by Thursday morning. Relative humidity will remain elevated and will persist through midweek, followed by a transition to a drier pattern with cooler temperatures Friday into the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ140>142-148.