textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwest winds are expected today with gusts to around 25 mph, especially along the higher terrain of the North Shore.

- Scattered showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are forecast for today, mainly for the Arrowhead and parts of Northwest Wisconsin.

- Seasonal, dry conditions return for Thursday and Friday.

- Our next chance for precipitation is this upcoming weekend, with off-and-on showers and storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Current Conditions and Today: During the early morning hours, lingering light showers will continue across the Northland following the evening cold frontal passage. As we move into the daylight hours today, breezy northwest winds will set in, with sustained winds of 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph. The higher terrain of the North Shore will have the strongest winds during the morning and early afternoon hours. Temperatures will be cooler again today, with highs only in the 70s for most locations. Downsloping with these northwest winds may actually help keep the immediate North Shore locations a bit warmer. The cyclonic flow across the region and lingering moisture will help generate some scattered showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms today, with storms most likely during the afternoon hours. this activity will rapidly taper off around sunset as drier air works into the region. Skies will gradually clear for tonight, setting the stage for a cooler night tonight with lows dipping into the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday and Friday: We can expect beautiful late summer weather across our area both days. Expect plenty of sunshine and dry conditions both days with afternoon highs sitting comfortably in the upper 60s and 70s. Winds will be lighter on Thursday and become light and variable for Friday as a high pressure system slowly slides across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

A warm front is moving through the region mid-day today, bringing a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the tip of the Arrowhead and entering north-central Wisconsin. These storms are part of what is Round 1 and are not expected to be severe. Behind the warm front, atmospheric recovery will occur this afternoon and last into the early evening hours within the short-lived warm sector of a low pressure system centered over Manitoba, Minnesota, and Ontario. As daytime heating maximizes instability, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible beginning first in the far northern Minnesota Borderlands late this afternoon, with an onset time around 3 to 4 PM.

The hazard threats of Large Hail and damaging wind gusts will build southeastward early this evening towards the Twin Ports. By later this evening, closer to sunset, the severe threat moves into into northwest Wisconsin and the eastern Arrowhead. Severe storm chances are expected to taper shortly after sunset this evening with a cold frontal passage occurring tonight. Behind the front, lingering cold air advection showers will continue through the overnight hours, but these will only bring very localized and light rainfall to the Northland.

For Wednesday, a slight cool down is forecast and breezier post- frontal regime takes hold across the area. Expect gusty northwest winds sustained around 10 to 15 mph with gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph. The exception for the cool down will be the North Shore with those northwest winds downsloping and aiding in warmer temperatures for the immediate coastal areas.

The light and localized rain showers from the overnight hours will last into the Wednesday daytime period, actually increasing in coverage under daytime heating and instability. A few general thunderstorms are forecast Wednesday afternoon within this regime of numerous light and very localized rain showers. Severe weather is not anticipated on Wednesday.

Minimal weather concerns are expected for Thursday and Friday as passing high pressure brings a return to quiet and dry conditions across the region. It will feel fairly dry each afternoon with minimum relative humidity dropping to 35 to 45 percent range...winds generally remain around or less than 15 mph though so no fire weather conditions are forecast.

Looking ahead to the weekend, warm air advection sets up again Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak passing front and a low to mid-level ridge axis slides eastward into the northern Plains. This could be a time of a few scattered thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday morning. Furthermore, strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out later Saturday or at some point Sunday. A low pressure system in far northern Ontario and a reinforcing frontal passage forecast for Sunday will keep the pattern active, as convection over the Northern Plains may spill over and slowly decay into the Northland. Pending any increases in sky cover or lingering precipitation, Sunday could actually be somewhat warm into the mid-80s for locations south of US Hwy 2. Generally minimal weather concerns to start next week under seasonable temperatures and mainly dry conditions likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The morning starts off with IFR to MVFR ceilings that gradually improve to VFR by early afternoon (18-20Z). Widely scattered to isolated showers at INL/HIB/DLH/HYR this morning into early afternoon as low pressure over northern Ontario slowly moves east today. Could see occasional MVFR visibilities if the showers move directly over any terminal through early afternoon. Becoming drier by mid to late afternoon with skies clearing from west to east this evening. Northwest winds today will gust to 20-25 kt, strongest in the late morning and afternoon before easing this evening towards 00Z and becomings calm to light tonight under clear to mostly clear skies. This could bring fog potential tonight at several terminals, namely HIB/DLH/HYR where probabilities of IFR or lower visibilities are around 20-30%. Have kept fog out of the TAFs for now, but it may need to be added in future updates if potential continues to increase.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior, northwest winds will increase this morning following the cold frontal passage last night. Gusts up to 20 knots are expected along the North Shore during the day today, causing waves to build to 1 to 2 feet along the South Shore and Apostle Islands. Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms are possible today. High pressure will push in tonight and Thursday to bring gradually calming conditions for Thursday and Friday. Winds should be less than 10 kts for most areas, starting out northwest early Thursday before gradually veering to northeast Thursday night and then easterly for Friday. Waves to settle to a foot or less for both days.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Cooler weather returns to the area today following the cold frontal passage last night. Lingering moisture will help keep RH values above 45 percent today, along with gusty northwest winds reaching 20 to 25 mph. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will also be possible today. A drier airmass arrives for Thursday, dropping minimum relative humidity into the 35 to 45 percent range with northwest wind gusts diminishing to 15 mph or less. High pressure on Friday will maintain the dry air but allow winds to become much lighter.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.