textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall across the Northland for Monday night into Tuesday.

- Temperatures trend cooler over the latter half of the week. - Frost and freeze potential returning Thursday night into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Dense fog is ongoing early this morning across much of the Northland, leading to drastically reduced visibilities for the morning commute. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until mid- morning to highlight this travel hazard. Once the fog lifts later this morning, we will see a seasonably very warm day across the region. Afternoon highs are expected to approach the upper 70s for pockets of northwest Wisconsin. Later this evening and through the overnight hours, an incoming band of heavy rainfall will setup over north-central Minnesota. The heaviest precipitation is expected to fall mainly over northwest Itasca County and western Koochiching County where upwards of an inch is possible. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out either tonight for these areas.

Heading into Tuesday morning, the initial band of rainfall will decrease in intensity and shift south and eastward over the rest of northern Minnesota. Temperatures on Tuesday will be closer to normal as clouds and showers are ongoing. However, the weather will become more active again by Tuesday evening as another period of heavier rainfall enters northwest Wisconsin. This secondary round of heavier rainfall is forecast to bring widespread amounts ranging from a half to three quarters of an inch across northwest Wisconsin into Tuesday night.

Wednesday will feature one more warm day across the region, with lingering scattered rain showers mainly focusing on northwest Wisconsin. These showers will gradually taper off as a potent cold front approaches from the west. This frontal passage Wednesday night will usher in a pattern change for the Northland. From the dawn hours Thursday into the daytime, expect gusty northwest winds to develop as a colder airmass filters into the region. These brisk winds will accompany a sharp drop in temperatures, falling 10 to 15 degrees Thursday compared to the warm conditions experienced on Wednesday.

The much colder airmass fully settles in for Thursday night behind the cold front as strong surface high pressure sets up overhead. The combination of clearing skies, lightening winds, and cold air advection will create our next widespread frost and freeze potential. Frost or freeze headlines are likely to be needed in time for later Thursday night into Friday morning.

Near-normal temperatures for early October will set up for this weekend as a frost potential will remain a concern during the overnight hours. A minor and relatively weak weather system may pass through the region by the weekend, bringing our next chance for light rain showers to the area by Saturday night.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Dense fog ongoing for all of northwest Wisconsin and parts of east-central Minnesota slowly clears out 14-16Z today with VFR conditions expected through much of the rest of today. Parts of north-central Minnesota see light southeasterly breezes to 20 knots this afternoon, otherwise under 10 knots. A band of rainfall moves from northwest Minnesota into north-central Minnesota tonight and first affects KINL, but at the end of this TAF set also towards KHIB.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fog, potentially dense, will impact western Lake Superior this morning before lifting to improve visibility for the afternoon. Winds will remain around or under 15 knots out of the east and northeast today. South winds will increase on Tuesday and may lead to hazardous conditions for small craft as gusts approach 25 knots near and offshore of Grand Portage. A cold front crosses late Wednesday, shifting winds to the west and strengthening them considerably for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are anticipated through midweek due to a widespread wetting rainfall and elevated relative humidity values remaining around or above the 45-50 percent range. Winds will stay light today, but southerly winds will become gusty on Tuesday. Following a strong cold frontal passage Wednesday night, northwest winds will become gusty late Wednesday night and further increase Thursday daytime alongside a drier and much cooler airmass. Afternoon minimum relative humidity for Thursday and Friday behind the cold front drop into the 30 percent range.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ038. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...None.