textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers of rain/snow are possible today.

- Dry weather with near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday.

- Showers are possible Friday night (30-50% chance) and rain and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday (30-50% chance).

- The cool and quiet weather pattern will continue through the weekend, then temperatures warm up next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Cooler than normal temperatures continue to prevail across the Northland today as we remain locked into northwest flow. Increasing cloud cover with cyclonic churning aloft will keep our temperatures in the low 50s and upper 40s. A shortwave is also evident on satellite this afternoon moving across northern MN. This feature is providing a small boost in combination with diurnal heating to produce some scattered showers. This activity will diminish later this evening. The Brainerd Lake region is seeing some slightly windier conditions and when paired with RHs hovering around 25% we have opted to put an SPS out for near critical fire weather conditions through the afternoon.

Friday:

Early Friday morning a surface low will be dropping southeast out of Manitoba. A warm front will arc across northern MN leading to more westerly flow and a slight bump in temperatures. Highs will be able to climb into the 60s with upper 50s across northern MN. Still expecting an influx of cloud cover through the day again but surface dewpoints should dry a bit more as mixing up to 8k ft seems reasonable looking through several model soundings. Additionally, can't rule out some isolated showers and sprinkles across northern MN and into NW WI as isentropic forcing for ascent will be in place. Overall, pretty similar to what we are seeing today.

Weekend:

The aforementioned low pressure dives southeast Friday night causing a cold front to sag south and ushering in some cooler northwest winds to inhabit the region once again. As the low sinks southeast it will spawn some light rain with it moving through the Brainerd Lakes region in the morning and into NW WI for the early afternoon hours. The better forcing moves off to the southeast by the afternoon hours but cyclonic churning and remnant moisture will support some isolated showers until sunset.

Not much change for Sunday. Surface high pressure does nudge in from the northwest. Cyclonic flow aloft continues within our northwest meridional pattern. Diurnal cumulus will populate in the afternoon but with the subsidence in place paired with dry low levels we don't expect any precipitation. Some virga may lead to an occasional burst of wind. Minimum RHs will start to bottom out which may prompt some elevated fire weather concerns.

Next Work Week:

Surface high pressure moves overhead on Monday leading to a very sunny day. This looks to be the driest day in terms of Min RHs which could fall to less than 20%. Fortunately, with the placement of the high pressure wind speeds will remain on the low side. High temperatures will also rebound nicely back into the 60s and upper 50s.

Tuesday will sport a pattern change as an upper level low ejects out of the Canadian Prairies. This will lead to a surface low spawning somewhere in the Upper Midwest with ensemble low clusters suggesting around Lake of the Woods and a secondary low possible over southern MN. This set up will help to draw in some warmer temperatures and introduce some PW for the Pacific northwest. NBM PoP trends are increasing for Tuesday morning and are now up to around 40-50%. Timing will still need to be refined as location of the low pressures remain in flux. At this time severe weather does not look likely.

Warmer weather is on the board for the latter half of the work week as our 850mb temperatures start to climb. The cooler Canadian air is expected to stay farther north which will allow most of the region to climb into the 70s on Thursday. We will still have the classic cooler by the lake set up where temperatures near Lake Superior will be 10-15F cooler.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. FEW to BKN VFR clouds will clear out this evening from NW to SE across the region as a shortwave overhead departs and we lose daytime heating. Can't rule out a few light rain showers/sprinkles in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin for a few more hours this evening as this system departs. Gusty northwest winds also taper off by mid to late this evening as daytime mixing ends. A few additional rain showers and sprinkles are possible again Friday afternoon into evening as another system pushes through during the period of daytime heating. Little in the way of additional accumulations expected. Winds also pick up out of the west to northwest for daytime Friday with deep low-level mixing.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots continue until a cold front moves through late Friday leading to a wind shift out of the northwest. Isolated to scattered light rain showers will be possible mainly during the day light hours. No hazardous conditions expected at this time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow regime continues for the region with isolated areas seeing some light rain to sprinkles at times. An area of drier and slightly gustier winds have developed near the Brainerd Lakes Region prompting an SPS for near critical fire weather conditions.

Tomorrow is fairly similar to today with some isolated showers possible once again, primarily in the Arrowhead and northwest WI. Model soundings would suggest some drier conditions will be possible with more widespread sub 25% RHs likely across north central MN into NW WI. Wind gusts of around 20-25 mph will be possible with another SPS likely needed for near critical fire weather conditions.

A low pressure moving out of the Red River Valley will help to promote some rain showers in the Brainerd Lakes region Saturday morning and into NW WI in the afternoon. However dry conditions return Sunday and especially Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.