textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return Thursday into Friday. Few snowflakes cannot be ruled out in the Arrowhead, Borderlands or interior northern Iron County early Friday morning.

- Gusty northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph develop Thursday night into Friday, especially from the Twin Ports high terrain to the North Shore.

- Possible near-critical fire weather conditions on Saturday due to very dry air and gusty southwest winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the rest of the day, expect generally low impact weather across the Northland. Plentiful cloud cover will linger through the afternoon hours, keeping temperatures on the cooler side. As we head into tonight, a few light lake effect rain showers are possible for the Minnesota Borderlands coming off of Lake of the Woods with around a twenty percent chance of very spotty measurable rainfall. No notable accumulations are expected from these inland lake effect rain showers, and nearly all of the region will remain completely dry as overnight low temperatures drop into the upper thirties to lower forties.

Skies will slowly clear as we move through Wednesday, leading to continued near normal conditions across our region. High temperatures will comfortably reach the middle to upper fifties as weak surface high pressure drifts across the area. Wednesday night will feature partly cloudy skies initially before clouds begin to thicken once again ahead of our next approaching weather system.

Rain chances return to the forecast on Thursday, primarily focused across northwest Wisconsin and even areas further southward into central Wisconsin outside of the Northland. Thursday night into early Friday morning, a secondary Canadian low pressure system will drag a cold front through the area. This setup will create wrap around cold air advection and will usher in gusty northwest winds Thursday night into Friday daytime, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected areawide. These winds will be especially notable from the Twin Ports high terrain extending up through the entire North Shore. As the colder air filters in, a few rain and snow shower mixes are possible for the Borderlands to Arrowhead in Minnesota early Friday morning. It is very likely no snowfall even accumulates (95% chance), but if it is able to drop enough in a very localized area then a dusting of snow is the max expected.

Lake effect showers are also possible Friday morning along the South Shore. These will primarily fall as rain near the shorelines, but pockets of inland northern Iron County cannot rule out a few snow showers. A substantially drier airmass rushes in by Friday afternoon, causing minimum relative humidity values to drop into the thirty to forty percent range. Friday night will be quite cold, with low temperatures very likely from the low-20s to upper-20s across nearly all areas.

Very low dewpoints will linger into Saturday daytime as temperatures rebound into the upper fifties and lower sixties. Minimum relative humidity values will plummet into the 25-35 percent range, and historical trends for this similar weather pattern suggest they could drop even lower. Combined with southwest winds sustained at 10 to 15 mph and gusting to 25 mph, near critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday mid day through early evening. We will be tracking these forecast conditions and may be in communication with Land Management Agencies later this week to discuss how fuels are looking for any kind of possible fire weather headline needs.

No rainfall is forecast this weekend into early next week as a warmer than normal airmass settles in, bringing temperatures back into the sixties.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Overcast IFR to MVFR skies prevail most of this TAF period. A few isolated rain showers cannot be ruled out tonight near INL in the far northern MN Borderlands. West to northwest winds continue under 10 knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Elevated swell from 2 to 5 feet will continue this afternoon over western Lake Superior. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM for the Outer Apostle Islands and the nearshore waters from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor. Waves will decrease this evening as weak high pressure arrives. A secondary Canadian low pressure system brings a strong cold front Thursday night, likely resulting in gale force northwest wind gusts to 40 knots and building waves by early Friday morning. A Gale Watch is very likely to be needed in time, and could be followed by a Warning if confidence remains high in these stronger gusts to 40 knots Thursday night to Friday afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Fire weather concerns are minimal through Thursday morning with relative humidity remaining above 45 percent and winds generally light. Winds begin to increase Thursday afternoon first in northern Minnesota as rainfall is forecast for northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead. A much drier airmass arrives Friday afternoon, dropping minimum relative humidity to 30 to 40 percent alongside northwest wind gusts to 35 mph. Possible near- critical fire weather conditions are on Saturday as relative humidity values will drop to 25 to 35 percent, likely even lower in following forecasts, paired with southwest winds gusting to 25 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150.