textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy drizzle and light rain continues this afternoon, with more widespread rain chances entering from the west later this afternoon and exiting tomorrow morning. A few storms will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI through this evening. - Quiet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday

- Rain chances return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

A stalled front stretches from near the Twin Cities eastward through north central Wi and across northern Lake Michigan this afternoon. North of this front gusty east winds are blowing across the Northland. With increased low level moisture and flow off the lake, patchy drizzle and light rain are expected to continue. Starting to see more light showers develop over the Arrowhead, as low level isentropic lift increases and a mid level jet moves overhead. Further to our west, more organized showers and storms are ongoing across portions of ND.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening, showers will become more widespread as a shortwave lifts through the region. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, mainly from Brainerd eastward across northwest WI. Instability parameters are meager, with limited MUCAPE above a cap but in the hail growth zone. If a stronger storm does develop, small hail will be the main concern. Additional rainfall amounts will be between 0.10-0.50 inch, and dependent on where more persistent heavier rain falls.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Upper level flow becomes more zonal Tuesday, with showers ending across the Arrowhead Tuesday morning. Low level moisture lingers across the area, and would not rule out a few light showers around but for now will maintain a dry forecast for mid morning and through the day. High pressure arrives Wednesday, keeping conditions dry with clearing skies. Temperatures will be much more seasonable with highs in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will fall back into the 30s.

Thursday and Friday:

Not many changes noted for the end of the week system. Guidance continues to be in better agreement with one low ejecting out of the Central Rockies starting Thursday morning, pushing moisture northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. Another low will be dropping south out of central Canada and will pick up the Plains low somewhere over the Midwest. Although there is some timing differences with the two systems, there is good agreement that moisture transport from the Plains will be mainly to our southeast. There will be enough moisture and forcing on the north side of the Plains low for showers Thursday afternoon and evening, with the Canadian low currently lagging a bit behind and mainly result in cold advection showers Thursday night.

Weekend:

The aforementioned lows will merge over the Great Lakes leading to a strong pressure gradient setting up over the Northland. Gusty north winds with ample cold air pouring in from the north will lead to a very chilly Saturday morning with lows in the 20s. Dry air will also dominant most the region leading to mostly sunny skies and highs continuing to be in the 50s and 60s. The dry and windy conditions may prompt fire weather concerns for Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 707 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A thunderstorm will pass over DLH in the next half hour, then some residual showers and perhaps a stray storm. Showers and perhaps storms will be possible at HIB/HYR over the next few hours as well. Temporary IFR conditions will be possible. Thunder is not likely at INL, but a prolonged period of rain is expected. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR ceilings with plenty of low clouds and moisture around. Fog is possible tonight, with the best model signals at HYR. Winds will gradually shift around from east-northeasterly over to west to northwesterly on Tuesday as low pressure departs. Speeds will decrease substantially, especially at DLH. Low clouds are expected to persist through the day with conditions slowly improving to MVFR.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 917 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Winds are still pretty gusty out there, so I extended the Gale Warning until midnight (05z). Small Craft Advisories have been issued thereafter for all zones except for Chequamegon Bay. Winds are expected to decrease somewhat quickly overnight with gusts falling below 20 kt by around 7 AM (12z), but high wave heights will linger for several hours after that. Winds will eventually switch to westerly, then northwesterly going into Tuesday night with gusts at or below 15 kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

There are no immediate fire weather concerns through most of the work week. Rain chances continue this afternoon and tonight, and Min RHs are not expected to start drying out again until Friday. The next elevated fire weather conditions will likely be Friday and Saturday as winds increase and Min RHs drop into the 30s and possibly 20s for Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121. Gale Warning until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ140>147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140>147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ148.