textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Flurries will linger into this morning before dissipating throughout the day. Cold conditions are expected tonight.

- Temperatures around normal will last into the mid week, with partly sunny skies.

- Warmer temperatures and mixed precipitation will arrive with another clipper on Thursday before a cool down on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering moisture across the Northland continues to support a deck of low stratus clouds and scattered light snow flurries today, particularly across northeast Minnesota and the Arrowhead. While dry air is beginning to push in from the northwest to thin the cloud cover, the process will be slow. Areas along the South Shore of Lake Superior may see these flurries linger longer into tonight as limited lake moisture interacts with the cold airmass. Temperatures today will struggle to reach the mid teens and overnight lows dip down into the single digits below zero. Combined with light winds, wind chill values are expected to drop to between 15 and 20 below zero by early Tuesday morning.

We are heading into a relatively quiet stretch for the early work week as a weak ridge and surface high pressure settle over the region. Monday and Tuesday will feature more sunshine and a gradual recovery in temperatures. By Wednesday, highs will return to the 20s. A weak upper-level disturbance is forecast to move through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. However, because there is very little moisture available for this system to work with, the most likely outcome is simply an increase in cloud cover or a few stray flurries. The probability of any measurable snow accumulation during this mid-week period remains very low, near 10 percent.

Attention shifts to a stronger clipper system expected to move through the Northland later in the week. Ahead of this system on Thursday, a warmer airmass will move east into the region from the west, pushing daytime temperatures to near or slightly above the freezing mark. As the precipitation moves in, it will likely begin as a mix of rain and snow. Confidence is increasing that we may see a period of freezing precipitation or freezing rain near the freezing line. While the exact location and probability of occurrence of this icing remains uncertain, it is a monitored threat for Thursday afternoon and evening. Following the passage of this clipper, another round of cooler air will briefly drop temperatures back toward seasonal norms for Friday under high pressure, but a quick warming trend is expected to resume over the weekend with highs returning to the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

VFR and MVFR stratus with light snow showers linger across the Northland. Up and down conditions will continue for the next several hours, which have been denoted as PROB30s in each TAF. As dry air moves in from the northwest, snow will begin to end, but MVFR conditions will remain.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters from Grand Portage to Duluth until 10 AM this morning. Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will persist behind a cold front before subsiding this afternoon. Waves in ice-free areas will be 1 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 foot or less later today. Quiet conditions are expected for Tuesday with winds becoming variable under 10 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140>144.