textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid today with Heat Advisories in effect for most of the Northland

- Thunderstorm chances return Thursday through Friday. Some strong to severe storms will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure is being shunted off to the southeast today. This will allow for southwesterly winds to stream back into the area promoting increased temperatures and dewpoints. To account for this warmer weather we have issued a Heat Advisory for most of the Northland. Precipitation chances today remain low. There remains poor agreement among guidance but given the weakly forced environment plus the smoke aloft, storm generation may be hard to come by.

Tomorrow:

The upper level ridge that has been over the region begins to break down early tomorrow morning as a shortwave trough advances in from the west. This initial wave may lead to a few showers and storms across our the International Border in the early morning hours. Through the day a deeper trough will be advancing across the Northern Plains with it's attendant cold front marching east. These features are set to move through the Northland late Thursday into Friday which is when we have our highest chances for precipitation and storms. Severe threat remains marginal as highlighted by the SPC. Plenty of instability (2000 J/kg) to work with but bulk shear may be lacking for severe storms to be sustained. Steep low level lapse rates paired with high DCAPE seems to favor an environment for damaging winds for any strong storms that do manage to develop. Still a lot of spread in the high res guidance, particularly with the storm evolution in the morning prior to the onset of the strong trough.

Friday/Weekend:

Rainfall chances will then linger into Friday before drying out for the weekend. The jet stream will then shift north of the border for the weekend and into next week, keeping the main storm track to our north. There will be limited chances for precipitation, but nothing significant at this point. Temperatures cool into the 70s and low 80s for Friday and Saturday before slowly warming heading into the new week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Surface high pressure over Lake Superior will be moving to the SE today with southwesterly winds returning to the Northland. A few pockets of fog this morning will quickly erode after day break. The rest of the day will see VFR conditions with hazy skies aloft from smoke. Radar/satellite show a tiny cluster of storms over Lake of the Woods this morning, that could briefly impact INL if they manage to hold together. Afterwards, there is a chance for storms to return early tomorrow morning, however confidence is on the low side as model guidance continues to oscillate.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Surface high pressure is retreating to the southeast which will allow fog to disperse across the Lake today. Winds will still be variable maxing out around 10 knots through the day. Thursday will see storm chances return and linger into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Another warm day with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s. Surface high pressure retreats to the southeast allowing for light southwest winds to return to the Northland. Min RHs could drop into the 30s around the Brainerd Lakes Region with the rest of the area staying in the 40s. Storms return Thursday and linger into Friday, some may be strong to severe.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012-018-019-025-026-033>038. WI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>003-006>008. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ141>147- 150.