textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mix of clouds and sun with mild temperatures the rest of today and chilly again tonight.

- Warming up Friday into this weekend. Hot weather with near- record highs in the upper-70s to mid-80s expected on Saturday and near-record warm lows Saturday night.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions could occur Saturday with gusty south winds of 25-35 mph, dry air, and very warm temperatures.

- Closer to seasonal temperatures next week with rain chances returning late Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT:

Mild temperatures top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s this afternoon alongside westerly winds with occasional gusts to 15-20 mph through late this afternoon. While there is some weak shortwave energy traversing the region in northwest flow aloft, this will mainly result in persisting mix of clouds and clearing through the rest of today and evening as dry air in the lower portions of the atmosphere keeps precipitation from reaching the ground. The exception would be some patchy sprinkles at best (less than 15% chance) near the Brainerd Lakes and along the International Border late this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures cool off quickly tonight with calm to light winds and some lingering cloud cover. Not an ideal radiational cooling set up for areas where clouds linger. Low temperatures drop into the low 30s to around 40 degrees, with the areas of best potential for at or below freezing temperatures in the Iron Range/interior Arrowhead to the International Border and in north-central Wisconsin IF breaks in clouds can occur for a period of time tonight.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY:

Surface high pressure departing to the east will lead to southerly/southeasterly winds developing on Friday. Temperatures will be on the increase, reaching the low 60s to around 70F, and some 50s in the Arrowhead due to onshore flow. Winds should be on the increase throughout Friday, with PM gusts to 15-25 mph, steadily increasing overnight. No precipitation is expected.

For Saturday, the Northland will be wedged between an anomalous upper-level ridge axis centered just to our east and troughing over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low pressure system in the Dakotas will have a very tight pressure gradient out ahead of it, pumping unusually warm and breezy conditions into the Northland relative to this time of year. Given strong, southerly warm air advection ahead of the low pressure, high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 70s to mid 80s, being warmest in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are also expected, as well as minimum relative humidity dipping to the low to upper 30s (%) in the warmest areas and upper 30s to 40s (%) elsewhere. This combination of fairly low relative humidity combined with very warm and breezy conditions may lead to near-critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. We stay in the warm sector of the low pressure system on Saturday night with breezy warm, southerly winds continuing. As a result, low temperatures for many areas shouldn't cool off much below the upper 50s to mid 60s except in far north-central Minnesota. Several locations could approach record daily high temperatures for Saturday and record warm low temperatures for Saturday night (see the "Climate" section below).

On Sunday, the surface cold front associated with the low pressure system will gradually be moving from northwest to southeast across the area. Given the current forecast timing of the front, the I-35 corridor into northwest Wisconsin should still see high temperatures top out around 80F to the low 80s. Most of northeast Minnesota should see highs in the 70s, with some 60s in far north-central Minnesota where the front will move through quicker. Given later cold front timing in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin, the warm temperatures, fairly low min RH, and southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph late Sunday morning and afternoon could lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:

Upper-level support/troughing is relatively weak and situated behind the cold front on Sunday. Far north-central Minnesota could see light rain chances arrive as early as late Sunday afternoon or evening, with rain chances then moving across areas mainly north of US HWY 2 (20-50% chance) Sunday evening and night. Farther south may not see any precipitation through Sunday night as drier air appears to linger in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Areas that do see rain likely see less than 0.10".

A second trough aloft moves through the area Monday into Monday night as a secondary surface low moves across Wisconsin into the central Great Lakes. A little bit better scattered, light rain chances are possible with this second trough across much of the Northland (40-70%, highest in north-central MN into the Arrowhead). Regardless, additional accumulations range from little to nothing south of US HWY 2 to 0.10-0.20" in north- central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Total amounts for late Sunday through Monday night will generally top out around 0.25" in northern areas, with decreasing amounts with southward extent to almost no accumulating rainfall south of US HWY 2.

Much cooler, more seasonal October temperatures return Monday and Tuesday. Lows Monday night are forecast to dip into the low 30s north to low 40s south and low to upper 30s Tuesday night. High pressure overhead on Tuesday should keep conditions dry once rain chances end late Monday night.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:

Global ensembles and deterministic model solutions forecast a digging upper-level trough over California on Monday to eject into the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday night/Wednesday and into the Upper Midwest sometime in the late Wednesday or Thursday timeframe. At the surface, expect lee cyclogenesis in the Colorado vicinity late Tuesday to eject northeast into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Wednesday night or Thursday. There still remains substantial spread in the timing and track of the surface and upper-level features with this mid to late next week system. However, given the appearance of stronger synoptic forcing, more widespread rainfall potential would be in store. Seasonal fall temperatures also linger into the second half of next week, as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with scattered mid to high clouds for most of the area. West-northwest winds briefly gust to 15-20 kts this afternoon, then become light and variable to calm this evening and tonight. Southeast winds develop on Friday, remaining light through most of the morning before gusting to 15-20 kts again in the afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Westerly winds with gusts to around 20 kt continue through early this evening before weakening and becoming light and variable tonight into early Friday morning as high pressure passes through. Easterly winds increase on Friday as the high pressure departs, leading to 15-25 kt gusts on Friday initially along the SW arm of Lake Superior and the South Shore Friday afternoon and early evening shifting out of the southeast into the North Shore Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Waves of 2-5 feet are forecast with these winds late Friday through very early Saturday, therefore Small Craft Advisories have been issued.

Strong south to southwest winds are expected Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, especially along the South Shore. While Gales may be possible there (30-50% chance), very warm temperatures over a relatively cooler Lake surface may lead to somewhat stable conditions and limit the stronger gusts from reaching down to the Lake surface. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed everywhere else, except possibly parts of the North Shore near Taconite Harbor and Grand Marais. Winds will remain strong Saturday night, decreasing Sunday ahead of a cold front. Winds then turn northwest to northerly Sunday night and become blustery again. A couple periods of light rain will be possible Sunday evening into Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Min RH has dropped to 30-40% this afternoon with westerly wind gusts of 15-20 mph. Partly to mostly cloudy skies continue into this evening, though winds will become light and variable this evening into tonight.

Winds shift to southeasterly on Friday as high pressure slides east of the Northland. Expect fairly low min RH once again at 30-40% for most of the area, and some pockets of upper 20s (%) in inland northwest Wisconsin. Wind gusts top out around 15-18 mph Friday afternoon and actually strengthen in the evening and overnight as RH recovers.

On Saturday, temperatures will warm up substantially with strong southerly winds. While dewpoints will be increasing into the 50s, near-record high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will push min RH into the 32-45% range, lowest from the I-35 corridor into northwest Wisconsin. Most GEFS members favor 90th percentile of climatology or higher for the HDW Index on Saturday due mainly to the warm temperatures and gusty winds. Winds will be quite strong, sustained at 10-20 mph, strongest along and south of the Iron Range. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are also forecast, strongest along and south of the Iron Range. Localized parts of the South Shore could also approach gusts of 40 mph midday Saturday into Saturday evening. Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible as a result.

RH is forecast to recover to 60% or higher Saturday night recovernicely into Saturday night, though slightly less strong winds will persist into Sunday, especially in northwest Wisconsin. Min RH is forecast to dip to 35-40% in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and 45% or higher elsewhere as a cold front gradually moves northwest to southeast across the area. Winds shift to northerly behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Scattered light rain will be possible as early as late afternoon/evening Sunday in far north- central Minnesota, spreading southeast on Monday with the best potential along and north of US HWY 2. Rainfall amounts remain fairly low at this time, ranging from 0.05-0.25" along and north of the Iron Range to little to no accumulations south of US HWY 2. Some pockets of slightly over 0.25" are possible near the International Border and Arrowhead.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures and warm low temperatures are shown below for Saturday and Sunday, October 10th and 11th, where the forecast temperature is within three degrees of approaching the record temperature.

High Temperatures:

10/10: Record Forecast KDLH: 82/1938 80 KINL: 80/1955 77 KBRD: 85/1928 82 KHIB: 81/1938 80 KASX: 86/1938 85

10/11: Record Forecast KASX: 86/2015 83

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

10/11: Record Forecast KDLH: 58/1938 57 KBRD: 58/1997 57 KHIB: 55/1938 54 KASX: 58/2015 58

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121- 143>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 9 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 5 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141-142.