textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warming conditions for Friday into Saturday with continued daily freeze-thaw cycles.

- Widespread rainfall arrives Saturday afternoon and continues into the new week. Some thunderstorms will be possible at times. With over an inch of rainfall in some areas along with melting snow, minor flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

High pressure was centered across the Northern Plains this afternoon and extended into the Upper Midwest. Low pressure was located over eastern James Bay with a cold front trailing back into the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi Valley. Winds were diminishing across the Northland as the high continued to build in. Light radar returns were evident across central Minnesota, but nothing was reaching the ground with dry air moving into the region. This was associated with an upper level shortwave propagating eastward. Kept minimal chances along our southern border into this evening as the main wave passes through, but anything more than a few sprinkles is unlikely. Dry conditions will then prevail for Friday into Saturday morning as high pressure works through the Upper Midwest. Highs Friday will reach into the 40s to middle 50s with lows mainly in the 20s.

As the high slides into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday, return flow on the backside will increase across the central CONUS. This features a Gulf connection bringing ample moisture northward along with warmer temperatures. Highs Saturday will be in the 40s and 50s with lows remaining above freezing for most Saturday night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will begin pushing in from the south Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will be working against dry air at the surface and lingering ridging aloft, so precipitation may not begin until overnight. Periods of showers will continue through Sunday and into Sunday evening before this first system departs to the northeast. A warm front will move north across Wisconsin during the day Sunday. Where this front ends up will be a main factor in determining the northward extent of any strong to severe storms. Right now this looks like it will set up somewhere across northern Wisconsin, perhaps along the I-94 corridor. Most of the strong to severe storms should remain to our south based on current trends, but our far southern Wisconsin zones may be on the northern periphery. Highs Sunday will be in the 60s to middle 70s with 40s and 50s near Lake Superior.

After a break during the day on Monday, another system will develop across the Central Plains and lift a warm front into the Minnesota/Wisconsin area Monday night into Tuesday. The 09.12z suite of models have shifted this second system a bit further south, keeping the heaviest rainfall across northwest Wisconsin. Models have also trended warmer for the Monday into Tuesday time frame, which will limit the snowfall potential across northeastern Minnesota Monday night into Wednesday to more of a rain/snow mix with perhaps some periods of freezing rain along the higher elevations of the North Shore. Models vary in moving this second system out of the area, but precipitation may linger into Wednesday night if the slower solutions verify. Combining the two systems results in rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches from the Lake Mille Lacs area to the North Shore and eastward across northwest Wisconsin, including the Twin Ports. The highest amounts will likely be in the Sawyer and Price county areas. Rainfall amounts of a half inch to an inch will be possible across the remainder of northeastern Minnesota. With the above freezing temperatures and large rainfall amounts on top of the snowpack, minor flooding will be possible, mainly across some of the more susceptible basins across northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures will start to trend a bit cooler starting Monday with highs in the 50s and 60s and then 40s and 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions prevail across the region early this afternoon as a stratus deck lingers overhead. A few snowflakes may be seen in spots underneath this deck, but no impacts are expected. A weak system will pass to our south tonight and may bring a few sprinkles to HYR this evening. Dry air may win out there and lead to dry conditions prevailing. Otherwise, conditions will slowly improve to VFR. Gusty northwest winds currently will diminish through the afternoon and become light and variable.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

No marine concerns are expected over the next 48 hours with high pressure moving across western Lake Superior. Winds will be variable at 5 to 15 knots into Saturday morning. Winds then become easterly at 5 to 15 knots Saturday into Sunday with a few gusts to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Dry conditions are expected for Friday with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light out of the northwest, though afternoon gusts could reach 10-15 mph with peak daytime heating. High temperatures will top out in the 40s to mid 50s. Given a signal for deeper mixing heights up to 6000-7500 ft Friday afternoon, min RH values fall to 25-45%, and below 35% from the Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports and into NW WI. These RH values may trend even lower, especially in southern portions of the Northland that are snow-free. Widespread rainfall is expected for late Saturday into early next week with many locations seeing 1 or more inches of rainfall from eastern Minnesota into the Arrowhead and in NW WI. Portions of NW WI could see up to around 2" as well.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Through the rest of this week and into the weekend, daily temperatures rising well above freezing are likely to get snow transformation and melt started once again across the Northland. The snowpack across much of north-central MN, the Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and southern tier of WI counties in our CWA is fairly minimal (less than 5" in depth and 0.5-1.5" of SWE) and seems likely to melt down to mostly bare ground by Saturday. The daily overnight return to below normal temperatures should help to make for a steady, controlled melt through Saturday morning across the entire area. This will cause some injection of life back into our area waterways, but is not expected to lead to any flooding issues.

Come Saturday, an extended period of above normal temperatures with highs and lows above freezing is expected to begin and continue through early Tuesday morning. This should kick off 24/7 snow melt. Areas of rain arrive into Sunday morning and several waves of rain cross the area through Monday evening. Current ensemble guidance shows most of the area along a line from Aitkin to Ely and southeast with a 50-90% chance of receiving an inch or more of rain in this period, with locally higher amounts of 2"+ possible in NW WI. Rates themselves are unlikely at this point to lead to classic overland flooding or flash flooding. Where this rain is combined with snowmelt there are areal and riverine flooding concerns. By this weekend, it seems most likely that the only areas with remaining snowpack would be those along the North and South Shores where snow depth is still 8-30" with 2-8" of SWE today. While some of that SWE is expected to melt out by Saturday, there will likely be plenty left by the time rain begins. Current probabilistic guidance shows the potential for several river forecast points to exceed their action or minor flood stages on the Knife, Nemadji, and Bad Rivers. There is a small chance that the Tyler Forks River may crest into its moderate flood stage which leads to impacts along Highway 169 northeast of Mellen. Along the North Shore onshore winds could lead to enhanced precipitation totals and the South Shore may be closer to the higher synoptic rainfall amounts - so both areas of remaining snowpack could also be under slightly higher amounts of rain. Interests along the North and South Shore should heed latest forecasts and be prepared for possible minor flooding early next week.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.