textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few, localized showers are possible this afternoon and evening.

- Near-freezing and below-freezing temperatures expected tonight. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect.

- Warmer weather starting Tuesday, through next weekend.

- Sparse rain chances this week, with cool mornings and patchy frost possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Northwesterly flow has overspread the Northland this afternoon, with some isolated cold advection showers moving southeast across portions of the Arrowhead/Iron Range. Per area cameras, light rain is making it to the ground, but with very dry air advecting southward, amounts will be light. Although this activity will remains isolated, there is a chance the showers make their way across the lake to the South Shore over the next couple hours. A stronger shortwave on the back side of the upper level trough will cross the Canadian border this evening, which might help kick off a few showers over the tip of the Arrowhead. Again, amounts will be light.

Gusty northwest winds will diminish this evening as high pressure builds into the region. With clearing skies and diminishing winds, expect good radiational cooling conditions and for temperatures to cool quickly. Areas across north central MN, the Arrowhead, and interior northwest WI are most likely to drop below freezing, with frost expected elsewhere, including locations along the shores of Lake Superior. Headlines remain in effect.

Surface high pressure continues eastward Monday, with winds turning back to the south and warm advection setting up. Will maintain a dry forecast for Monday afternoon and evening, but there is some support for scattered showers. Not sold on the quick moisture return behind the dry airmass moving through tonight coupled with weak forcing being able to squeeze out more than 10-15 percent coverage. This happens south of a low pressure system in southern Canada, with most of the rain remaining north of the border. This system will swing a cold front through the Northland Wednesday. After a warmup on Tuesday, temperatures will be back in the upper 50s and 60s for highs through the work week. Morning lows will be 30s. Another warmup is expected for the weekend, with southerly flow and possibly a little rain.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Skies clear tonight before clouds increase through the day Monday. Any lingering gusty winds will diminish quickly this evening with winds around 10 knots or less from the south Monday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Small Craft Advisories continue through early this evening for most nearshore waters as breezy northwest winds gusting to around 20-30 kt are expected. Expect winds to decrease from west to east tonight as high pressure builds over the region, and eventually switch to southerly Monday afternoon. Breezy south to southeast winds are possible late Monday night into Tuesday, and additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Breezy northwest winds continue this afternoon, diminishing this evening with sunset. Current RHs are in the 35 to 45 percent range, and could mix slightly lower this afternoon. Fire weather conditions should be minimal with recent rainfall.

For Monday, min RHs remain above 40s percent, expect for portions of interior northwest Wisconsin. Winds turn to the south, but will be less than 10mph. For the rest of the week, expect temperatures to warm up early in the week, then decrease very slightly by Thursday/Friday. Rain chances will be sparse, and RH is looking low Wednesday through Friday, as low as 30 to 35 percent for portions of the northwest Wisconsin. Fire weather conditions may be a bit elevated Wednesday, given gusty northwest winds, and possibly lingering into Thursday and Friday (though wind speeds less a bit late-week).

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021-025- 026-033>038. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for MNZ010>012-018- 019. WI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-002- 006>009. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for LSZ142.