textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost and freezing temperatures are expected this morning.

- Rain showers are possible late this afternoon and evening.

- A warmup is expected through midweek, then temperatures remain on the warm side through the weekend. Sparse rain chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Temperatures are tumbling out there this morning with mid 30s just after midnight for much of northeast Minnesota north of US 2. Temperatures are a little slower to fall in northwest Wisconsin with a few clouds lingering, but expect them to fall within the next couple hours. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings will remain in effect through mid morning.

High pressure will depart to the east today and strong warm air advection and a warm front will move in this afternoon and evening. There is increasing confidence that an area of showers will accompany the warm front from west to east late this afternoon into this evening. PWATs will increase to around 0.75 to 1" along with generally weak synoptic forcing with the warm front. Lacking any other substantial upper-level forcing mechanisms, along with lingering low-level dry air not being shy to go away, whatever rain does fall should be pretty light. Some subtle instability will likely make these quasi-convective showers, but thunder is not expected.

Tuesday is looking to be an unseasonably warm with highs running around 15 degrees above average. Sunshine should be plentiful as we sit within the dry warm sector of a low pressure system well to the north in Ontario. A cold front will swing through Tuesday later afternoon and night. An upper level trough on Wednesday could bring a few sprinkles, but otherwise dry weather is likely with slightly cooler, but still mild temperatures.

Northwest flow will persist through Thursday with quiet weather, then perhaps a wind change to southeasterlies Friday. Some cool nights Thursday night and Friday night could mean more frost/freeze conditions. Another low pressure system may make its way through this weekend, and if the track remains as currently suggested by most models, we would end up in the warm sector with a pretty mild weekend and perhaps a little rain for some places. Early next week, there are some early hints of a surge of cold air behind this potential low, which could cause temperatures to tumble closer to normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Fog and freezing fog is still in and out this morning at BRD, HYR and HIB, and TEMPOs have been added accordingly for these terminals until the fog starts to thin throughout the early morning. An area of light rain will move through the area this evening. However, this rain will be fighting some low level dry air and not much rain will reach the ground. After the showers pass, low level wind shear will affect each terminal in the late overnight hours. Wind shear is expected to ease by early Tuesday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Light and shifting winds through Monday, then winds become south to southeasterly Monday evening as a warm front passes through with some light rain chances. Late Monday night into Tuesday, winds become stronger and southwesterly. The South Shore, Apostles, and North Shore around Grand Marais will likely see a period of 25 kt wind gusts. Small Craft Advisories may be needed. A cold front will cause winds to become northwesterly Tuesday night with speeds decreasing. Expect more blustery west winds that may be hazardous for small craft on Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Somewhat dry conditions are in the forecast for this afternoon ahead of a warm front. RH is expected to fall to 30 to 45 percent, but winds will be light. Light rain showers are likely Monday late afternoon into the evening for most places. Rainfall amounts up to a tenth or two for most places, but locally higher amounts just over a quarter inch can't be rules out. Some lingering moisture Tuesday may keep RH higher (min RH 40-55%). Dry and breezy northwest winds are possible behind a cold front on Wednesday. Min RH could fall just below 30 percent for some places with wind gusts to around 25 mph. Some elevated fire weather conditions may be possible. Similar conditions are possible Thursday. Moisture may increase a bit over the weekend with potential for low pressure to pass through in the vicinity of the Northland.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021-025- 026-033>038. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018- 019. WI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001-002- 006>009. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121- 147-148. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140- 146-150. Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142.