textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Clipper system for this evening through Tuesday will bring widespread snow to most of the Northland. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for southern Cook County with Winter Weather Advisories for the rest of the Arrowhead.

- A couple additional periods of light snow (10-30% chances) later this week, mainly in northern Minnesota.

- Temperatures gradually increase midweek through Friday with the high temps for Friday in the upper 30s to 40s, followed by a sharp cooldown next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Today:

Temperatures have remained cooler today, expected to top out this afternoon around 10F for much of the North Shore to teens to around 20F elsewhere.

Surface high pressure that was centered over the region earlier today is now sliding east, with a mix of clouds and sun changing to increasing cloud cover from the northwest ahead of a Clipper System that will be bringing widespread snow to the Northland starting this evening and tonight. Winds on the backside of the high pressure are now turning southeasterly, which is leading to an end of light lake-effect snow along the South Shore. These winds will also continue pushing a narrow convergence band of lake-effect snow that is currently just north of the Duluth up the North Shore through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The snow band put down 0.1" of snow in Duluth as it moved through. Expect similarly light accumulations of 0.5" or less as it moves up the North Shore.

Later this Evening - Tuesday Clipper System:

A potent, quick-moving Clipper system in the Canadian Prairies this afternoon will dive southeast through the Northland on Tuesday. While we are currently seeing dry air in the lower portions of the atmosphere, expect gradual saturation of these lower levels and light snow to start as soon as late this evening, but more likely tonight as broad warm advection/isentropic ascent precedes the arrival of the Clipper. The most favorable synoptic forcing in support of moderate to heavy snowfall rates of 0.5-1"/hr will be during Tuesday morning when strong differential vorticity advection, divergence aloft, and strong low to mid-level frontogenesis will be coupled together. Given that this is a quick-moving Clipper system, any one location should only see these higher snowfall rates for a 2-6 hour timeframe, with the rates best along and north of US-2 in northeast Minnesota and east of US-53 in northwest Wisconsin. Several hours of snowfall rates of 1-1.5" are likely for portions of the North Shore and higher terrain in Cook County due to southerly winds off of Lake Superior and terrain enhancement. Model soundings show a fairly narrow depth of dendritic growth zone (DGZ) saturation, with most of the thermal profile in the lower levels at warmer than -10C to -12C. This should result in snow to liquid ratios that are more typical for this time of year, not like the heavy, wet snow we saw with the last winter storm last week.

Snow will end from west to east during the afternoon hours for many locations as a strong cold front with the Clipper moves through. However, there will be some steep low-level lapse rates and lingering low-level moisture on the back side of this system, which should support snow showers/flurries lingering for northeast Minnesota and the South Shore Tuesday evening and night before gradually waning towards late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as drier air moves in. Gusty southerly to southwest winds ahead of the cold front early Tuesday accompanying the higher snow rates Tuesday morning should lead to periods of visibilities of 1/2 mile or less, especially in the higher snow total areas of the North Shore. Therefore, expect hazardous travel conditions for the Tuesday morning commute. Winds shifting northwesterly Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night remain breezy before weakening into Wednesday, and could lead to pockets of blowing lighter falling snow and blowing of snow that has already fallen. While travel conditions should improve by the evening commute, there could still be slippery patches on area roadways, particularly untreated ones.

Slight adjustments were made to the winter weather headlines for this system. The Winter Storm Warning for southern Cook County remains unchanged, with snow amounts of 5-9" expected. Winter Weather Advisories in southern Lake County and northern Lake and Cook counties remain unchanged aside from slight upticks to snow amounts, now in the 2-6" range, being highest in northern Cook County where localized amounts to 7" also cannot be ruled out. Central and Southern St. Louis County were also added to the Winter Weather Advisory for forecast amounts ranging from 2 to 5 inches, highest in northeastern portions of the County. All of these headlines go into effect at midnight tonight and last until 3 PM Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory was also issued for Tuesday morning through early afternoon for Iron County, WI, due to snow amounts reaching up to 3-4" in that timeframe. Lesser amounts of less than 3" are forecast for areas south and west of the Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warning.

Mid Week - This Weekend:

Wednesday will be cooler in the wake of the Clipper system as high pressure moves through. Precipitation chances remain minimal to nil (15% chance or less in our southern counties) on Wednesday as a low pressure system passes well to our south from the Central Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, a few models do suggest a passing mid-level shortwave and associated surface warm front/warm advection Wednesday night into Thursday could combine with just enough moisture to create low-end, very light snow chances (10-30%).

GEFS and the EPS ensemble members show good agreement in the track of a low pressure system moving through Manitoba and Ontario on Friday with the low pressure track staying north of the International Border. Temperatures will become warm ahead of this system, with highs in the 30s for Thursday and upper 30s to mid 40s on Friday. Precipitation with this system is mainly favored to stay north of the International border, but we are carrying a 15-30% chance for precipitation in northern Minnesota and the Arrowhead as this system moves through on Friday. In the wake of the Friday low pressure's cold front, expect a sharp cool-down for the coming weekend as temperatures fall well-below average for late February/early March.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 547 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions currently in place will lower to MVFR then IFR late tonight into Tuesday morning as a clipper moves through the region. Ceilings will lower to MVFR at all terminals with visibilities falling to IFR at INL, HIB, and DLH starting in the hours before sunrise through mid-morning as the most intense snow moves through in association with a cold front. Snow will be light in consistency. Most of the snow will exit the region during the afternoon hours, but a few light snow showers may linger through the remainder of the period, but should not lead to any visibility restrictions. Southerly winds tonight will veer southwest Tuesday morning then northwest by late morning/early afternoon as the cold front passes. Winds will gust to 20 to 25 knots starting early this morning and continuing through the period. A low level jet will lead to a period of LLWS at BRD around sunrise.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 351 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A convergent band of lake-effect snow will continue moving up the North Shore into this evening. For Tuesday, a strong clipper system will move through the Northland providing widespread snow. This system will bring with it gusty winds out of the south on Tuesday that will then veer northwesterly behind a cold front Tuesday PM into Tuesday night. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all the near shore waters for tonight through early Wednesday. Gales are also not out of the question with 30-50% chance along the North Shore late tonight and Tuesday morning, and possibly along the South Shore Tuesday evening and night. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has also been issued for parts of the North Shore Tuesday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ011-012-019-020. Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ021. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM to 2 PM CST Tuesday for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for LSZ140>142. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 AM to noon CST Tuesday for LSZ140-141. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ143>146-148. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ150.