textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers of rain/snow are possible today.

- Dry weather with near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Friday.

- Showers are possible Friday night (30-60% chance) and rain and a few thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday (40-60% chance).

- The cool and quiet weather pattern will continue through the weekend, then temperatures warm up next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A broad area of clouds is slowly making its way east this morning, attendant with an upper-level trough. Clear to mostly clear skies can be found behind it over most of northern Minnesota. As a result, we're looking at a pretty quiet weather morning.

Today's weather will be similar in some ways to yesterday. A potent upper-level shortwave trough is expected to pass through today, and along with that, we will still have the cool west- northwest flow that will lead to diurnal instability. Couple these two features and we may have a somewhat organized chance for some light rain/snow showers. These will be most likely to affect a line from International Falls to Duluth to Hayward and points northeast. Any snow will be very light and probably won't stick, and p-type should gradually transition to rain/graupel late-morning into the afternoon.

Cloud cover today is likely to be scattered to broken with a strong diurnal component to it (more clouds expected late- morning through the afternoon). Despite talking about clouds and showers, we will have a well-mixed lower atmosphere, and there is a non-zero chance for relative humidity to fall to near- critical levels around 25% this afternoon for a few places. This will be most likely around the Brainerd Lakes. At this time, there's still uncertainty on how low RH could fall given potential for clouds, so we'll have to keep an eye on that.

Friday is looking like a drier day yet with winds a little blustery from the west as well (gusting to around 15-20 mph). RH is likely to fall below 25% for many places, and near- critical fire weather will be possible. Otherwise, expect some sunshine and temperatures should warm into the 60s for many places.

A quick-hitting clipper and cold front Friday night is still on track to bring some rain to much of the region (30-60% chance), though rainfall amounts should be light (less than a tenth of an inch) and thunder is not expected.

More dry weather is possible Sunday-Monday, and there could be some near-critical fire weather conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1043 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cool start to May will continue to be the story across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin the remainder of this week. Under cyclonic flow aloft associated with a longwave trough and an unseasonably cool airmass with 850mb temperature percentiles near the bottom of the climatology, high temperatures today will only climb into the 40s across the Northland. A few rain and snow showers are expected within the low cloud cover as well. For tonight, widespread low temperatures in the 20s are forecast with weak surface high pressure. Depending on what low level cloud cover remains, a few locations could (20-30% chance) drop into the lower 20s and upper teens across northeast Minnesota for low temperatures by Thursday morning.

For Thursday, a stronger impulse embedded in the cyclonic flow will propagate across the region, supporting a 20-30 percent chance for rain showers during the day on Thursday. A few snowflakes may mix in during the morning given the cool start to the day.

Temperatures warm back to near normal on Friday as cyclonic flow eases some aloft and the coldest low level airmass moves into Canada. Friday could have near critical fire weather conditions given dry conditions and low relative humidity and westerly winds around 10-15 mph. Will coordinate with fire partners on fuel conditions and potential fire behavior.

The next shortwave and return of a chilly May airmass arrives this weekend to continue much of the same pattern that we have seen so far this month across the Northland. There is a 20-30 percent chance of rain showers Friday night into Saturday morning as impulses in cyclonic flow move across the region.

Looking ahead to next week, the cool pattern looks to relent some as the upper level flow pattern becomes more zonal. This would support a warm up to more normal temperatures next week. The next best chance for precipitation (30-50% chance) is Monday night into Tuesday with the arrival of a shortwave and Pacific moisture. A few thunderstorms are expected with some buoyancy. However, severe weather is not expected.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A layer of overcast ceilings will continue east overnight, but ceilings will remain VFR underneath the clouds. Expect another day of diurnal stratocumulus to develop with a passing upper- level trough potentially bringing some mixed rain/snow showers starting at INL during the morning and spreading southeast through the day and affecting the other terminals. Both ceilings and visibility are expected to remain predominantly VFR, though very brief MVFR visibilities or ceilings can't be ruled out in a more persistent shower. Winds are expected to become a bit breezy from the northwest with gusts in the 15 to 20 kt range during the afternoon as well. Skies are expected to clear out and winds become light around and just after sunset Thursday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Expect fairly light southwest winds today and tonight. There may be some gusts in the 15-20 kt range around Grand Portage this afternoon. Southwest winds continue into Friday, and gusts from 20-25 kt are possible again around Grand Portage during Friday afternoon.

Winds switch to northwesterly following a cold front on Saturday. Gusts from 15 to 25 kt are possible, especially along the immediate shoreline of the North Shore, which may lead to hazardous conditions for small craft. Winds will calm down a bit Saturday night and remain northwesterly through the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

There are a few days of concern coming up for fire weather. Today is a bit tricky because we will have a weak system passing through which may keep some clouds and perhaps some showers of light rain/snow around. However, some areas may not get very cloudy, and RH could fall into the 25-30% range this afternoon. This will be most likely around the Brainerd Lakes, but confidence is pretty low on how low RH may actually fall.

On Friday, drier weather is expected along with some blustery west winds in the 15-20 mph range for gusts. Min RH is likely to fall into the 20-30% range, and with this, near-critical fire weather conditions are likely in the afternoon and early evening.

Light rain is possible Friday night with a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation expected.

More dry weather is possible Sunday with RH falling to around 30% and blustery northwest winds gusting 15-20 kt.

On Monday, winds shift to southerly, and while speeds may be light, dry weather is expected with RH falling to 20-30%, which could lead to near-critical fire weather conditions.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.