textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers end tonight from west to east.

- Colder air arrives for Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures closer to normal.

- The pattern turns more active for the coming week with multiple chances for rain (and a little snow) with temperatures warming back above normal for the latter part of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Low pressure was located over northern Manitoba early this afternoon with a cold front extending into northwestern Ontario, central Minnesota and western Iowa. A line of showers was observed on radar ahead of this cold front from northeastern Minnesota into central Minnesota. A large area of high pressure was centered over the northeastern CONUS with another area in the northern High Plains. As the cold front moves to the east into tonight, showers will end from west to east. An isolated lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out with this activity, but instability is very limited and lightning activity has ceased after being present earlier this morning. Breezy southerly slow ahead of the cold front has resulted in temperatures warming into the 60s and 70s from the Minnesota Arrowhead into the I-35 corridor and across northwest Wisconsin.

A much more seasonable airmass arrives tonight behind the cold front as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs tomorrow will only be in the upper 40s and 50s with mainly dry conditions. The cold front may linger across northern Wisconsin into southern Minnesota and bring a stray shower or two to our southern row of counties in northwest Wisconsin. With the drier air moving in and northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph across northeastern Minnesota, RH values may fall into the 25 to 35% range during the afternoon. Much of northern Minnesota away from Lake Superior will fall below freezing tomorrow night with mid-20s possible in north-central Minnesota.

High pressure will be to our north on Monday before shifting to the east Monday night into Tuesday. Surface low pressure will move from the Central Plains to the Red River Valley of the North Monday night into Tuesday and bring chances for showers to the region starting Monday night. Another upper low will emerge from the Rockies Tuesday night into Wednesday with another area of surface low pressure developing across the Northern Plains. This will keep chances for showers in place across the Northland into Wednesday afternoon. Additional rainfall chances will then be seen for the end of the week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s and 50s before warming into the 50s and 60s for the remainder of the week. With lows Monday night into Tuesday morning falling below freezing across northern Minnesota, so snow may mix with the rain or possibly change over to all snow for a brief period before temperatures trend warmer after sunrise Tuesday morning. No accumulations are expected, but don't be surprised to see some white stuff in the air in spots early Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A line of showers are currently propagating through the region this evening ahead of a cold front. Northwest winds have been gusty right ahead of these showers, easing behind the cold front. These showers have been keeping visibility VFR, although a band of IFR cigs have been observed around these showers. Dry air filters in tonight behind the cold front, which is anticipated to inhibit fog development overnight. Expect VFR conditions on Sunday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Southwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots will continue this afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing this evening into tonight as a cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon, but are expected to end by early evening as winds diminish. A line of showers will be ahead of the cold front and a few isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out in this activity. Westerly to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected for Sunday with a few gusts to 20 knots possible along parts of the North Shore. Winds then swing around out of the northeast for Monday at 10 to 20 knots, highest in the western arm of the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers will be seen ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening with activity diminishing tonight. Rainfall will be around a tenth of an inch or less with isolated higher amounts in spots. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will become northwesterly behind the cold front and then diminish after sunset. Generally dry conditions are expected for Sunday outside of a few lingering showers in far southern areas. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 30 to 35% range with a few pockets in the 25 to 30% range in the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Winds tomorrow will be northwesterly at 5 to 15 knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots in the Arrowhead. A cooler and wetter pattern is then expected for much of the coming week with multiple chances for rainfall and temperatures closer to normal.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.