textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms begins overnight Saturday into Sunday. More widespread rainfall arrives Monday through Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of strong to severe weather for northern Minnesota Sunday and Monday, with more widespread potential on Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Widespread low clouds and fog persist over the Northland this morning. Given the saturated near surface layer, drizzle has also been persistent overnight. Clouds have kept temperatures warmer than previously expected, with most locations still in the 60s at 3AM. Foggy conditions will improve with sunrise, with low clouds lingering through the morning for most of the area. Temperatures today will top out in the lower 70s to lower 80s.

With surface high pressure centered to our northeast, winds will be light away from the shore lines. Breezy east winds off of western Lake Superior will be be weaker today, with a lower swim risk. If wind speeds trend upward, will need to re-assess the swim risk and potential for rip currents.

The reminder of the forecast remains on track, with a break in showers today, before a more active pattern returns Sunday into early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The break in active weather ends very early Sunday morning as thunderstorms return then for the rest of the Holiday weekend. As instability surges into the region, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. This environment will also be characterized by a very moist airmass, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall alongside any severe hazards. If it can form, low confidence right now, severe weather would mainly be limited to north- central Minnesota and the Borderlands Sunday afternoon to evening before quickly decreasing environmental favorability into northeast Minnesota.

Widespread light to moderate wetting rainfall is forecast for Labor Day Monday, especially from the afternoon through Tuesday morning as a dynamic low pressure system approaches. This would be another day of low-end severe weather chances for severe weather potentially in northern Minnesota, but much lesser favorability into northwest Wisconsin.

By Tuesday afternoon though, the more likely severe weather chances for the region, cross over the entire Northland and could be a day to watch given the more notable forcing combining with a highly moist atmosphere. The instability though appears to be a narrow corridor that will have to line up with daytime heating to erode any mid-level capping.

Gale force wind gusts from easterly winds will impact the North Shore on Monday, reaching up to 40 mph. As the system moves northeastward, winds will shift to southerly for the coastal North Shore near and just offshore of the Grand Portage area, where gusts to 40 mph are possible again on Tuesday.

Expect a third wind shift and even stronger westerly winds behind a cold frontal passage on Wednesday morning. Gusts of 30 mph are forecast for land areas on Wednesday, with Lake Superior waters exceeding 40 mph. Gale Watches may be needed in time for the coastal nearshore waters. After this wet and windy early to mid next week time period, only very limited rain shower coverage is expected to end next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Low stratus is only very slowly improving today, with most sites remaining under MVFR/IFR ceilings as of issuance time. KBRD is close to the edge of the cloud cover, and is likely to break out to VFR conditions in the next hour or so. It will take longer for the other sites to lift. An area of showers and storms is moving towards the area from the west. These should slowly deteriorate the farther east they advance and move over the top of the stratus this afternoon. For now they have been left out of the terminal forecasts, but in the next couple hours we will be able to clarify these trends. Winds through the day today will be southeast at 5-10kts. The probability of another round of stratus and fog is increasing for tonight, with the greatest impacts expected for KDLH and KHIB. Scattered showers will move into the BRD area late in the forecast period, after 06/08Z, with thunder possible during the early morning hours.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Current northeast winds over western Lake Superior are gusting to 10-15kts, with low clouds and patchy fog possible, particularly near the Twin Ports. Northeast winds continue through today, at 10-15kts, with gusts to 20kts. More active weather returns Sunday into early next week, with several opportunities for showers and storms. In addition, easterly winds increase Monday evening, with gusts to 25kts along portions of the North Shore. Gale force gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected, possibly up to 35 knots are along the North Shore on Tuesday from the south, and extend to portions of the South Shore on Wednesday, as winds become northwesterly.Gale Watches will likely be needed for at least one day early to mid next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 50 percent through the weekend as abundant moisture stays in place. East to southeast winds will generally remain under 15 mph today. Widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday, with potentially over 1 inch of rainfall along and north of the Iron Range during that timeframe. Winds will increase significantly next week, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph on land starting Monday and peaking on Wednesday behind a cold front. Expect southeasterly winds Monday to shift to southerly Tuesday with a secondary wind shift to northwesterly on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.