textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- After a warm weekend and early next week, a pattern shift to more normal winter-like regime will occur starting Tuesday.

- There are mixed signals regarding the potential for more widespread precipitation/snow next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Deep low pressure aloft drapes a cold front through northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead this afternoon. This front will move eastward of the region into this evening and the observed low- level stratus clouds clear tonight. The exception will be over the Arrowhead and Borderlands where another push of moisture and right exit region of a jet streak within the warmer-side of the prime snow growth region keep a 20-30% chance of snow showers in those areas tonight into Friday morning. Outside of a Trace of snowfall in these far northeast Minnesota regions, no snow accumulations are forecast.

After a near-normal Friday with temperatures in the low to mid-30s, a largely dry pattern sets up for the weekend. Expect a shift to southerly flow to aid another round of warm temperatures for Saturday through Monday. Inland locations of east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin are likely to see upper-40s to maybe 50 F at some point this weekend or Monday.

A notable weather pattern shift remains expected next week ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Global model guidance has trended towards a bit earlier onset to precipitation for the Upper Midwest over the last day, now beginning Monday evening for the Northland. With the warm airmass in place, the first precip chances next week remain as rainfall into Tuesday morning. A colder airmass is very likely to be moving into north-central U.S. areas Tuesday daytime. The result could be a switch over to a wintry mix at some point Tuesday PM from northwest to southeast. As the coldest air moves overhead by Wednesday, there is high confidence in daytime high temperatures being near to below normal Wednesday onward. If any snowfall is able to accumulate at this time mid-next week, the very limited moisture availability and more shower weather-type pattern favors a localized pattern of light snowfall amounts at this time.

At this time, the primary takeaway is the high confidence on a shift to below normal temperatures (think highs in the 20s to around 30F) starting mid-next week. These conditions likely warrant at least the consideration of digging out the winter safety travel kit and keeping an eye on any travel route forecast conditions. The less confident takeaway is on how any wintry mix to maybe (30-40% chance) light snowfall may produce any winter weather travel impacts on Tuesday or Wednesday. Keep an eye on the forecast for your location at weather.gov/forecastpoints to ensure the latest information is available when finalizing travel plans next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

SCT to BKN MVFR cloud bases with some scattering stratus at HYR through 07-08Z, then expect clear skies there the rest of the overnight into morning hours. Some MVFR ceilings move into INL from the northwest starting around 08-10Z and spread southeast with time this morning. The potential for MVFR ceilings to reach as far south as HIB and DLH is less than 50% for now, so have kept FEW025 to SCT025 mention for those locations for now. This MVFR stratus does eventually scatter out this afternoon. Do not expect any light snow showers with these clouds as any trace snow chances remain northeast of the terminals in the tip of the Minnesota Arrowhead. Outside of these MVFR ceiling areas, expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period with light northwest winds becoming southerly Friday evening.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 209 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

A cold frontal passage results in continued gusty westerly winds over the western waters into Thursday morning. The highest confidence in prolonged gusty winds around 25 knots is over the Outer Apostles Islands where a Small Craft Advisory was issued from late tonight into mid-Friday morning. Winds decrease and shift to northwesterly Friday afternoon before quickly shifting again to southwesterly into Saturday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ150.