textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms spread across the Northland tonight through Monday. Non-severe thunderstorms are expected, along with widespread rainfall accumulations of 0.1-0.8".

- A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous severe storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday. Widespread rainfall in excess of at least 0.5" is likely.

- Hot temperatures are expected Tuesday and Wednesday when afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. Heat Advisories may be needed.

UPDATE

Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

No significant changes with this forecast update. Timing on the development of showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight into Monday morning has slowed slightly. The first round of activity is expected to develop across central Minnesota early this morning and lift northward before the remnants of storms over the Dakotas arrives after daybreak. Not expecting any strong or severe storms today, although an isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out in southern Cass County with marginally severe hail as the main threat. Better rainfall chances are still expected in the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe along with chances for strong to severe storms. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 80s with some lower 90s, but confidence in any heat headlines is low with cloud cover and rainfall possibly limiting heating.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY INTO MONDAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great Lakes will bring the next chance of precipitation into the region overnight tonight into Monday. The first couple leading showers and thunderstorms could arrive into the Brainerd Lakes as early as 7- 10pm this evening, but should be short lived, as they will be mostly diurnally driven. Better upper level forcing arrives overnight into early Monday morning, when we should expect to see a blossoming of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms into the Northland. These continue through the day Monday, gradually moving out of the area through the afternoon and evening. No severe storms are expected with this disturbance, and the area should see anywhere from 0.1- 0.8" of rain, highest amounts towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest in the MN Arrowhead. A few lucky folks might even get to measure over an inch on Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north- central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and shear, and a strong mid level jet. Any severe potential on Tuesday is somewhat limited for the Northland however, due to the timing of the front coming in overnight, which will make for a battle between that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition. Still, the environment might be able to MacGyver together a strong to severe storm or two. Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area, buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all hazards. There is some uncertainty with this setup, as the front continues to trend faster and lingering precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could make things messy. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a widespread 0.5"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat Advisories will likely be needed Tuesday and Wednesday, with a few areas in NW WI approaching Excessive Heat Warning thresholds on Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler temperatures. We stay in a zonal flow pattern into the weekend, stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at time, but nothing significant is expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Conditions range from IFR/MVFR in north-central and east-central Minnesota and VFR in the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin as of 1135Z. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorm activity moves through this morning, with MVFR to locally IFR visibilities at times this morning into early afternoon. Additional showers and storms may develop during the afternoon into early evening, but confidence remains fairly low and coverage would be more isolated to widely scattered. Expect MVFR to locally IFR ceilings into this evening, then rapidly deteriorating conditions in lowering stratus/fog late this evening and tonight. Light south to southeast winds early this morning increase to around 10 kt with some occasional daytime gusts of 15-20 kt for all TAF terminals besides DLH.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Easterly winds will prevail for today and Tuesday at around 5 to 15 knots. Winds will become light and variable for both Monday and Tuesday nights. Winds will then become southwesterly late Wednesday afternoon as a front moves through. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected today into tonight and then again Tuesday into Wednesday. Severe weather is not expected with the first round, but strong storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas of fog may develop at times over the next few days, but overall confidence on where and how long it may persist is low.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Multiple chances for rainfall start today with showers and embedded thunderstorms spreading across the region. Much of this activity will exit to the east tonight, although additional showers and storms may redevelop late this afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals through tonight will be around 0.20 to 0.40 inches with isolated higher amounts for areas that see heavier thunderstorms. Better chances for more widespread rainfall arrives for Tuesday night through Wednesday night with widespread totals of at least a half an inch. Many areas will see amounts into the 0.75-1 inch range with isolated higher amounts, especially across north-central Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.