textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain continues through Wednesday evening, lingering into Thursday for portions of NW WI. Additional rainfall amounts of another 0.5-2" are possible, with the heaviest rates during the day Wednesday. Depending on temperatures, some snowflakes could make an appearance along the South Shore Thursday evening.

- Drier and cooler weather expected for the end of the week into the weekend.

- Low end (15-25%) chances for some light precipitation Sunday along a mostly dry cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our expected secondary low pressure system is steadily moving its way north today, advancing another large rain shield into the Northland. Plentiful synoptic moisture lingering from our first system will ensure that precipitation is unlikely to ever fully come to an end, so most of the area should expect areas of fog, mist, and drizzle before a changeover back to steady rain. We should see the TROWAL of this system rotate over our area through the day Wednesday, bringing another all day deluge. Some heavier rainfall rates, similar to what we saw yesterday afternoon, will be possible through the day Wednesday as an area of robust lift and efficient precipitation making processes stall over the area. Across the Northland, an additional 0.5-2" of rain is possible, with the greatest amounts for the MN Arrowhead and South Shore.

In the upper levels, the cut-off low over this second system should be enveloped into a 500mb trough extending down from Hudson Bay into Thursday, allowing it to steadily progress out of the area. With so much moisture lingering, rain may be slow to fully depart the area, with rain persisting in NW WI through much of the day Thursday. As some cooler and drier air becomes dominant, most precipitation should come to an end Thursday afternoon and evening. The exception should be along the South Shore where some cooler 850mb temperatures and lake warmth/moisture will keep lake effect precipitation going Thursday evening into very early Friday morning. Depending on how fast surface temperatures can cool, some areas in the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron Counties may be candidates to see some snowflakes. Friday morning could sport some very minimal snowfall accumulations on elevated surfaces in those areas, should the precipitation type changeover come to fruition.

On the other side of the lake, the backside of this system will result in breezy northerly winds, exacerbated along the North Shore terrain ridge. Some gusts of 40-45mph are possible for portions of Cook and Lake County Thursday morning.

High pressure and drier air should make for a fairly benign second half of the forecast. Temperatures cool Thursday-Saturday with highs in the 40s and lows well below freezing. A very gradual warm up will arrive to the area late this weekend into early next week. An upper level shortwave passes a cold front across the area Sunday before that warm up, but most solutions keep it pretty dry at this point. Some sprinkles or widely scattered showers could be possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions are expected to largely persist through the TAF period with areas of rain and fog continuing into Wednesday. Winds will gradually turn from north/northwest to northeasterly.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Several periods of strong winds are expected over the next couple of days, leading to areas of Small Craft Advisories. Northeast winds pick up overnight into Wednesday morning with gusts up to 25 knots likely. As those winds subside Wednesday evening into Thursday morning, another round of strong winds will come in from the north. Along the North Shore between Grand Marais and Grand Portage, we are not expecting a notable pause in between these two rounds of stronger winds and the Small Craft Advisory for this zone has been extended to go from this evening all the way through early Friday morning. A period of gale force gusts is possible in this zone Thursday morning, and the advisory may need to be upgraded. Elsewhere, a notable break in between rounds of stronger winds will likely mean waiting until the current Small Craft Advisory for northeast winds expires, and then we'll issue another for the northerlies. Expect widespread rain and areas of fog through Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Widespread rain continues at least through Wednesday morning across the region. Lingering rain could continue in NW WI through Thursday, with some light lake effect rain and snow possible for portions of the South Shore into early Friday morning. Some gusty northeast to north winds are possible Wednesday, gusting 15-25mph, and then another round of strong winds from the north-northwest are expected Thursday, with some gusts of 25-40mph, strongest along the North Shore. Drier, cooler, and calmer conditions are expected for Friday and Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ140>145. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>147. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ150.