textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures each day and chances for rain showers and non-severe thunderstorms about every other day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Increasing cumulus clouds and a slight haze high in the sky will be the main weather story for this afternoon and evening as wildfire smoke drifts overhead. Despite the haze, it will be a very pleasant and comfortable day across the Northland. Afternoon highs will reach the middle 70s to the lower 80s, and with humidity remaining relatively low.

The International Border will likely see some high-based showers passing through that area of far northern MN this afternoon to early evening, but very dry low-levels limits much of any precip from reaching the ground and to virga. The forecast grids for that area this afternoon remain without any weather mentions for this case.

A weak shortwave rotating through a deeper vertically stacked Hudson Bay Low pressure skirts through southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario tonight. This will bring a band of high-based rain showers into northeast Minnesota late this evening, through the overnight and into early Sunday morning. If you live along and north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead, you could see the highest rainfall totals, localized up to half an inch. Late tonight into Sunday morning, mid-level instability builds into central MN and northwest Wisconsin on the nose of an icoming low-level jet. This setup may (20-30% chance) help trigger a few non-severe isolated thunderstorms across east-central MN and northwest Wisconsin through Sunday morning. This will also be a short period of increased dewpoints early Sunday that keeps a wetting rainfall around a quarter-inch of localized rainfall possible for northwest Wisconsin. Severe weather is not expected tonight into Sunday morning.

Looking ahead to next week, the Northland will remain on the cooler side of a stalled weather front located to our south. This setup will keep our temperatures near to slightly below normal going into the early part of mid-August. The weather pattern will also keep with the pattern of a weak system passing through the Upper Midwest and helping create a 10 to 30 percent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms every day or two. The severe weather threat though is expected to stay focused well to our south across southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites today with increasing diurnal cumulus clouds and slight haze from smoke aloft. Winds will be out of the west to southwest around 5 to 10 knots, with occasional gusts approaching 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. After 00-03Z, rain showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will develop and move east-southeast across the region. This precipitation will first impact KINL and KHIB before spreading toward KDLH, KBRD, and KHYR overnight. The showers, along with patchy fog development, will bring localized MVFR to IFR conditions in lower ceilings and visibilities through early Sunday morning before gradually improving toward the end of the period. Showers last into Sunday afternoon for north-central Wisconsin.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1118 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM this evening from Grand Portage to Grand Marais. Southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon, causing waves to build to 2 to 4 feet. Boaters should exercise caution. Tonight into Sunday, winds will weaken and shift to the southwest in the open waters and easterly into the southwest arm around 5 to 10 knots, allowing waves to subside to 1 foot or less across Western Lake Superior. There is a 30 to 60 percent chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning, but severe weather is not expected. Winds fully shift back to southwesterly around 10 knots Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Sunny and dry conditions are expected today with minimum relative humidity values dropping to 35 to 45 percent. The lowest humidity will be found over the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin and into the interior Arrowhead. West winds will remain modest at 5 to 10 mph throughout the day. Humidity recoveries will improve tonight and Sunday as moisture increases ahead of an incoming system. Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening and then slide slowly east- southeast overnight into Sunday morning. Rainfall of 0.1 to 0.5 inches locally is forecast in localized parts of the Iron Range to Borderlands and eastward into the interior Arrowhead late tonight. Minimum relative humidity will rise to 45 to 55 percent on Sunday with northwest winds around 5 mph. North- central Wisconsin districts will see continued 20-30% rain shower chances Sunday afternoon as the rest of the region is forecast to be dry. Severe weather is not forecast into next week, but every 36 to 48 hours there are general thunderstorm chances next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.