textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/storms will become localized to northwest Wisconsin today. Sunshine and dry weather will move in from the west.

- Rain and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Totals from 0.5"-1.0" with locally higher amounts are possible.

- Temperatures remain on the cool side through the week, then warming up a bit into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 114 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This Morning and Today: Low pressure continues to pass through with clouds and scattered showers ongoing. The back end of the showers are located over north-central Minnesota right now, and these are expected to continue moving slowly to the east-southeast. Most of northeast Minnesota should see clearing skies this morning with showers making their way into northwest Wisconsin. They will eventually start to move east of Price county in the early afternoon. With some diurnal heating, a few thunderstorms could pop up there. Instability is expected to be just a few hundred J/kg though, these should easily remain sub-severe.

With drier air moving in today, relative humidity is expected to fall into the 30-35% range for northeast Minnesota and inching into northwest Wisconsin. Wind gusts are expected to remain around or below 20 mph, so fire weather concerns are relatively low, but non-zero for this afternoon.

Wednesday Rain and Thunderstorms: Only subtle changes were made from the previous forecast with regard to Wednesday's spring/fall-like system. The track this storm takes will be pretty crucial for who does and does not see much rain from this. We should see a good swatch of moderate/heavy rainfall amounts that, for the most part, should hover in the 0.5"-1.0" range. This will be most likely across northwest Wisconsin with the current track. Locally higher amounts are possible with PWATs locally exceeding an inch. The track has maybe shifted ever so slightly south when looking at the mean, but there's enough spread between model members yet that subtle changes could still happen. Impact-wise, we can generally use the rain, so this should be beneficial in that respect. Most of the favorable instability for any severe weather is still likely to remain south, but if there was a subtle shift north, a few parts of northwest Wisconsin could see a small chance for stronger storms (mainly Price county).

The rest of the forecast is largely unchanged, so please see the previous discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rest of Today - Tonight:

High temperatures top out around normal for mid-June this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s, and slightly cooler immediately near Lake Superior for the Twin Ports and North Shore. Winds are also fairly breezy out of the west at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, though become light this evening and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop this afternoon in association with daytime heating and shortwave energy moving in aloft ahead of a surface cold front approaching the region from southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. Most of these storms should be fairly short duration and pulsey in nature due to weak effective bulk shear of 15-25 kt. With that said, steep low-level lapse rates, 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE, and mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km set up a parameter space where a few stronger storms could be capable of up to penny size hail and localized downburst winds of 40- 50 mph. The potential for a few stronger storms lingers through early evening, but should diminish around sunset. Scattered showers and a few embedded, general thunderstorms continue overnight as a surface low pressure gradually passes southeast through the Northland.

Tuesday:

The surface low pressure will be in NW WI on Tuesday morning and exit to our southeast Tuesday afternoon/evening, so shower and isolated non-severe storm activity will also end from NW to SE Tuesday, with the best precipitation coverage in NW WI associated with the deformation band on the NW side of the low pressure system before precipitation comes to an end. The rest of Tuesday will shape up to be a mix of clouds and sun along with cooler high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s away from Lake Superior and slightly cooler immediately near the lake. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph are also forecast for daytime Tuesday, but again drop off and become light towards sunset Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Tuesday Night - Thursday:

By Tuesday night/early Wednesday, an Alberta Clipper-like system is forecast to skirt along the southern portions of the Northland and bring a high likelihood (70-100%) for rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to areas along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor. There will to be an area of drier air to the northern side of this system, so the gradient in precipitation on the north side of the system should be sharper. Precipitation starts as early as Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as there will be some drier low-level air to initially overcome first. Precipitation then continues throughout Wednesday and ends from west to east Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, though some cold air advection/cyclonic flow showers could also develop on an isolated to widely scattered basis with daytime heating on Thursday.

As of now, the best rainfall potential would be along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, with the best potential for rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" being from the Brainerd Lakes east into NW WI. However, there is still some model spread regarding where the sharp cutoff in precipitation and rainfall amounts would occur in far northern MN. Regarding severe weather potential for Wednesday, the large majority of ensemble member surface low tracks remain south of the Northland, which would also keep the effective warm sector and pool of adequate instability for strong to severe storms south of the Northland. This aligns well with the area of "Marginal" in the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook also being south of the Northland.

Outside of showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday will be on the cooler side, with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s on Wednesday and mid 60s to around 70 degrees on Thursday. Strong onshore flow on Wednesday should push the cooler high temperatures in the upper 50s into the Twin Ports area and into portions of the North Shore. The strong onshore flow will also likely lead to a high rip current risk for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will also likely be needed on Wednesday.

Friday - Next Weekend:

The general mid and upper-level pattern for Friday into this coming weekend is for ridging to develop in the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast, leaving the Upper Midwest in a northwest flow pattern with occasional shortwave energy moving through, though ensemble members are in disagreement in the timing and amplitude of these features. Given the uncertainty, have maintained the periodic 10-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms from the NBM in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. A slight warming in the 850 mb temperatures next weekend should also push high temperatures closer to normal (low to upper 70s).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the Northland this morning with some pockets of MVFR to IFR ceilings with areas of showers. Showers across northeastern Minnesota are expected to diminish over the next few hours while lingering and possibly increasing in coverage across northwest Wisconsin. This will bring MVFR ceilings to HYR through early afternoon. VFR conditions then return for all this afternoon before ceilings return this evening into tonight as the next system starts to move in. INL and BRD will see the activity first with it spreading across the remainder of the terminals by 12z Wednesday or perhaps a little after. Winds will be breezy from the northwest today with gusts to 15 to 20 knots before becoming light and variable tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 114 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Winds are expected to be largely light and variable today and into tonight. Going into Wednesday, gusty east to east-northeast winds are expected to develop as low pressure passes by to the south. Winds are expected to get gusty as a result, especially around the head of the lake. We'll have about a 20-30% chance for seeing some gales, but for the most part, we are looking at potential for widespread Small Craft Advisories being needed due to 20-30 kt wind gusts. Wave heights may reach 3-5 ft around the Twin Ports as well. Showers and thunderstorms may accompany these strong winds at times on Wednesday. Winds are expected to become lighter fairly quickly Wednesday night with a wind shift to north/northwesterly following a cold front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

As low pressure moves east today, expect clearing and drying conditions in northeast Minnesota and into parts of northwest Wisconsin. Min RH today is expected to fall into the 30-35% range for most of these places, and some locally lower RH can't be ruled out (20% chance). Winds will be a little blustery from the northwest with gusts to around 20 mph. With this forecast, we are just shy of near-critical fire weather conditions for the day. We will monitor in case winds end up being higher or RH lower, but given recent rains, steep drops in RH aren't too likely. Winds are expected to lighten up quickly around sunset with RH recovering overnight as well.

A rainy system late tonight through Wednesday night is likely to drop 0.5"-1.0" of rain (perhaps some locally higher amounts possible). The best chances for appreciable rainfall accumulation will be northwest Wisconsin and perhaps inching into east-central Minnesota. There may be a fairly sharp gradient roughly along the US-2 corridor where not nearly as much rain may fall to the north (though a few tenths of an inch of rain will be possible). Thunder is possible with the rain, but severe weather is not expected at this time.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.