textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Blowing snow will slowly decrease in coverage late tonight.

- Dangerously cold wind chills last into Monday daytime.

- Strong winds along the North Shore last into early Monday morning.

- The rest of the week remains cold, and becomes even colder next weekend. The coldest air of the season is likely Friday into the weekend.

- Another clipper will affect portions of the Northland Wednesday, though impacts and snowfall accumulations are expected to be minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

An Alberta Clipper is currently transitioning through the Northland, bringing a widespread round of light snow. While the initial wave provided about an inch or two for most, a second surge of energy arrives this evening. This secondary wave will not provide much more snow, but lowered visibilities from blowing snow and frigid air. Northwest winds are expected to ramp up significantly, gusting between 25 and 35 mph for most inland areas. The Brainerd Lakes region and areas with lower tree density will likely see blowing snow through the evening, leading to difficult travel. Along the North Shore, the combination of the pressure gradient on the back side of the system and incoming cold air rushing down the higher terrain will enhance these winds even further, with gusts up to 45 mph expected overnight.

As the arctic air floods in, any additional snow will become finer and more prone to blowing compared to the snow that fell this morning and afternoon. For the South Shore, the story is different as the lake effect machine kicks into high gear. The 850mb temperatures dropping into the negative 20s Celsius will lead to extreme instability over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior and support snowfall rates of a half inch to three-quarters of an inch per hour in northern Iron County. Residents in the higher terrain of Douglas and Bayfield counties should also watch for locally higher totals near 3 inches due to a combination of gravity waves and lake enhancement.

The most dangerous aspect of this forecast is the extreme cold. Low temperatures tonight will plummet into the negative teens. When combined with the gusty northwest winds, wind chills will drop to between 30 and 40 below zero across much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures on Martin Luther King Jr. Day will struggle to even reach the zero mark. While there may be a very slight moderation in temperatures by Tuesday and Wednesday, the region remains locked in a broad arctic trough. Another clipper system is slated for Wednesday, but it appears moisture-starved and will likely only produce light accumulations. Timing remains different between global models for this system, so timing of snowfall is uncertain.

Looking toward the end of the week, a reinforced shot of even colder arctic air is expected to arrive Friday. This air mass looks deeper and colder than the current one. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday may stay stuck in the negative single digits or double digits. Even with lighter winds of 10 to 20 mph, the air will be so cold that wind chills could reach 45 below zero in some spots during the nighttime. Extreme Cold Warnings may be necessary as we head into next weekend, as these values can cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 10 minutes.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

MVFR conditions will prevail tonight under blowing snow leading to lower visibilities and ceilings from stratus that will very slowly depart into Monday morning. The exception is a few parts of the Iron Range and Borderlands tonight where intermittent VFR is being observed. As the gusty northwesterly winds decrease from 09 to 12Z, expect slowly backing to the west around 10 knots. A period of mist and maybe flurries is forecast to drop southward into the region from Ontario 16 to 19Z and create a period of afternoon and evening MVFR ceilings and visibility. There are indications of a 40% chance of IFR for a few hours around 18-21Z, but have kept out of TAFs with this issuance.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 247 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A Gale Warning is in effect for the North Shore and the Twin Ports through early Monday morning for northwest winds gusting up to 40 knots. For the South Shore, including the Apostle Islands, a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is in effect as the combination of high waves up to 8 feet and sub- zero wind chills creates a high risk for rapid ice accumulation on vessels. Conditions will remain hazardous for small craft through at least Monday night before winds and waves decrease.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for MNZ020-021. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for WIZ001>004-006>009. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST Monday for LSZ121. Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ140>142-150. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for LSZ142. Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for LSZ142. Gale Warning until 3 AM CST Monday for LSZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for LSZ145>148. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 AM CST Monday for LSZ145>147-150.