textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Several waves of isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible through tonight. Small hail and wind gusts of 40mph are possible with stronger storms.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible Friday afternoon and evening from the Interstate 35 corridor eastward across northwest Wisconsin.

- Generally speaking, minimal rainfall totals through early next week with 0.10 to 0.40 inch expected with most getting the lower amounts or less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

South to southwest flow continues as a low pressure system rotates eastward across southern Saskatchewan this morning. A north to south oriented front stretches southward through the Red River Valley, with a couple areas of showers and storms ahead of the front. Currently this activity is focused over an area near INL and northward, where another stalled front stretches eastward across southern Ontario, and to our south, across southern MN, where there is better shear and instability. A weak shortwave associated with this activity will lift northeastward this morning, and expect isolated to scattered showers and storms across the Northland this morning. Depending on airmass recovery and lingering cloud cover, additional activity is possible this afternoon. For both potential waves of activity today, lapse rates are weak, with moderate values of MUCAPE and 20-30kts of bulk shear. Cannot rule out small hail and a wind gust to 40mph with any stronger storm.

Additional waves of storms are possible early Friday morning and again Friday afternoon/evening, as the surface low finally moves eastward into southern Ontario and a more distinct cold front moves southward into the area. With better shear profiles at 30-40kts and slightly better lapse rates, this period could pose the better chance of a few severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds possible. The potential for activity Friday evening will depend on how far south the front makes it before we lose daytime heating.

Rainfall amounts today through Friday continue to trend lower, with 0.10 to 0.40 inch possible. The higher amounts will be across northwest WI, where PW values are slightly higher, pushing 1.40 inches. There will likely be many locations that receive no rainfall, given the scattered nature of showers and storms.

Behind this front, drier conditions with weak winds are expected for Saturday as surface high pressure shifts across the area. Do not expect any cool down behind this system, with highs over the weekend pushing into the upper 80s to lower 90 for interior portions of the Northland Saturday and Sunday. Precipitation chances return Monday, as a strong shortwave moves into the Upper Midwest. This system might tap into Gulf moisture advecting northward, unless widespread convection develops across the Mid Mississippi Valley, which is likely. Would not get too excited as the overall pattern favors warm and continued dry weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Scattered showers currently moving through the region this morning have largely been VFR. However, brief MVFR visibility will be possible underneath the heaviest showers this morning. This morning rainfall is occurring along a slow moving front, which will bring an additional chance for showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening. Confidence in precipitation coverage later today is low, as overall forcing is weak and models are poorly resolving the location of convection. Despite this, confidence is highest for southern portions of the area, where PROB30s were used in KBRD and KHYR. Watch for patchy fog development late tonight into early Friday morning, especially in areas that see rainfall today.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Quiet conditions expected for Western Lake Superior through the end of the week, with south to southwest winds generally 5 to 10 knots and waves 1 foot or less today. Winds become light and variable Friday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will move over the lake through Friday. Quiet conditions return Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A weak cold front arrives this morning, shifting winds to the west today across north central MN. A second cold front arrives tonight, turning winds to the northwest through the day Friday. Increased rain chances continue through Friday though the chances for a wetting rain have dwindled. Low level moisture does increase, keeping minimum RH values above 30% despite temperatures warming into the 80s. However, given the scattered nature of expected rain chances, some locations will likely not receive any rainfall, while a few locations could see a few tenths of an inch. Dry conditions return for Saturday and Sunday, with minimum RH values dropping as low as 25-30% for locations north of the Iron Range. Light winds Saturday, will increase from the southwest Sunday, with gusts to 25mph possible.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.