textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Sensitive vegetation may be harmed tonight as a Frost Advisory has been issued for temperatures dropping into the mid 30s in the Arrowhead to Twin Ports.

- Dangerous swimming conditions and hazardous boating conditions are expected late this morning into the evening for the Twin Ports due to gusty northeast winds and building waves.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected in the Borderlands and possible in portions of northeast Wisconsin today due to dry air and breezy southeast to east winds.

- Widespread rain showers move in late today, becoming more scattered on Saturday.

- A significant warming trend starts this weekend, with hot, summer-like temperatures arriving for Memorial Day into at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Early this morning:

While some cloud cover is over the Arrowhead and Twin Ports during the current overnight, some clearing is expected towards early this morning along with light winds. This combination should allow low temperatures to drop into the mid-30s for the Twin Ports and Arrowhead and is expected to result in areas of frost, posing a risk to sensitive plants. A Frost Advisory is in effect through 7 AM. Elsewhere, low temperatures will drop into the upper 30s to low/mid-40s.

Today - Saturday:

Surface high pressure exits to the east into the Great Lakes today, with a more prominent mid and upper-level trough/closed low and attendant surface low tracking northeast across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota today into tonight and into far northwest Ontario/Manitoba on Saturday. Conditions will initially be dry out ahead of this system, with a tight surface pressure gradient leading to breezy southeast to east winds today at 20-25 mph, with localized gusts to 30 mph mainly near Lake Superior at the Twin Ports and North Shore with onshore flow. Cloud cover will be on the increase throughout today, but portions of northwest Wisconsin and far northern Minnesota farthest removed from the approaching low-pressure system will see the best potential for low relative humidity of 30% or less. The combination of low relative humidity and gusty winds is expected to lead to near-critical fire weather conditions in far northern Minnesota (Koochiching, northern St. Louis, and inland Lake/Cook counties), and possibly in portions of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon into early evening. It's possible that the low RH could spread farther than currently forecast if cloud cover is slower to arrive. Look for high temperatures to top out in the upper 40s to 50s near Lake Superior and mainly 60s elsewhere. The breezy winds will be northeast off of Lake Superior into the Twin Ports, leading to building waves and a high risk of rip currents for the Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches late this morning into evening. Therefore, a Beach Hazard Statement has been issued.

Rain showers with the approaching low-pressure have trended slightly faster with higher forecast precipitation amounts for later today through Saturday. Expect rain to begin moving into the Brainerd Lakes during the afternoon and spread north and east across northeast Minnesota in the evening as the main area of synoptic forcing and lift moves through, and eventually into northwest Wisconsin overnight into early Saturday with a surface occluded front. Rain showers become more isolated to scattered in nature on Saturday as the better forcing moves north with the low pressure. With little to no instability associated with these showers, expect the potential for thunder to be minimal to none (10% chance). Total forecast rainfall amounts range from a few tenths to a third of an inch in NW WI to 0.25-0.5" in most of NE MN. The Brainerd Lakes has the best chance to see localized pockets of 0.5-0.7" of rainfall. Plenty of cloud cover will hang around, keeping high temperatures in the 50s immediately near Lake Superior and for the North Shore and 60s elsewhere.

Early to Middle of next Week:

A warming trend begins Sunday, with summer-like temperatures developing for the early to at least middle portions of next week as anomalous ridging aloft moves over the central CONUS and Upper Midwest. Sunday will be above average in the 70s for most of the Northland and climb into the 80s for most away from Lake Superior, with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. The upper-level pattern becomes the most amplified on Tuesday, with widespread 80s for highs once again and cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Well-above average temperatures are favored to continue into at least mid-next week, possibly late next week as the ridge pattern aloft transitions into a pseudo-omega blocking pattern. While the first half of the week will see predominately sunny skies prevail, these days could also see off chances (20-30%) for isolated showers and perhaps a few non- severe storms, mainly during the afternoons and evenings as weak shortwave energy passes through at times in combination with instability from peak daytime heating. This combination of heat and mainly drier conditions could also reintroduce periods of fire weather concerns each afternoon for early to mid-next week, but lack of any notable low-pressure systems or a tight surface pressure gradient should keep winds fairly in check from getting too strong.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions continue for the morning and into the afternoon. Winds increase out of the southeast, and gusts are forecast up to 25 kts. Rain showers are expected to move in starting late this afternoon at BRD and moving north and then east into tonight. With and behind the line of showers, LLWS is expected to affect BRD, HYR, and HIB tonight and will last into early Saturday. DLH may also see some LLWS, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1340 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Benign conditions on western Lake Superior through early this morning, but increasing northeast winds at 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots this afternoon into evening will lead to building wave heights to 2-6 ft, highest in the Twin Ports and southwest arm of Lake Superior. Breezy east to northeast winds with gusts of 15-20 kt continue through much of Saturday, especially for the Twin Ports and North Shore before diminishing late Saturday into Saturday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Areas of near-critical fire weather conditions are expected again today due to a combination of breezy winds and low RH values. The lowest RH of 23-33% are favored near the International Border in far northern Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin this afternoon into early evening where increasing cloud cover will be the slowest to overspread and increasing dewpoints are slowest to arrive. East to southeast winds will be breezy today, sustained at 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph peaking during the afternoon. Low pressure moving across the Dakotas and far western Minnesota late today and tonight will bring rain showers to the area starting in the Brainerd Lakes mid to late this afternoon, much of Northeast Minnesota this evening, and northwest Wisconsin tonight. Precipitation becomes more isolated to scattered on Saturday with cloudy skies and min RH values of 45-55% or higher. Total rainfall amounts range from a few hundredths to one-third of an inch in northwest Wisconsin, one-quarter to one-half inch in much of Northeast Minnesota, and possibly slightly over one-half inch in the Brainerd Lakes. We transition to summer-like and mainly precipitation-free conditions next week, though the pattern lends itself to peak daily wind gusts being less than 20 mph for the most part.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ012-019>021- 037. Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM CDT this morning through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001. Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM CDT this morning through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>142. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ150.