textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain enters from the west this morning and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the majority of the rainfall. No storms expected with the passing system.

- Gusty and dry conditions return on Friday and Saturday and may prompt fire weather concerns, especially on Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Synoptic set remains consistent with the discussion below. Overall, expecting showers to enter from the west this morning and spread east through the day. Minor shift in the low pressure going slightly further north has increased QPF for NW WI with the Gogebic Range now expecting greater than 0.50" The NBM seems to be struggling with temperatures under our cloudy regime. Max temperatures are too warm and overnight lows are too cold. Small adjustments were made, except for Friday morning where the NBM is 5-6F too cold. Leaned into the higher model consensus which keeps much of the region above freezing Friday morning. Precipitation will be exiting Friday morning and will largely be in the form of rain. Far northern MN could see a few snowflakes mix in but not expecting any impacts. The only other overhaul was to the Min RHs for Saturday. Model soundings remain very dry and with the abundance of sunshine expected Min RHs will likely fall to 25-30%. Increasing winds into the afternoon may prompt fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For the rest of this afternoon, lingering stratus clouds will slowly scatter across the Northland, leaving behind calm and quiet conditions. Cloud cover will increase again tonight across the area. Opted to increase low temperatures for tonight compared to guidance due to higher cloud cover limiting heat release overnight, with readings staying in the lower to mid 30s rather than dipping into the 20s.

An upper-level cutoff low over the Four Corners will phase into an incoming trough from the Canadian Prairies on Thursday, leading to a surface low moving across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. Rainfall will develop along a frontogenesis band Thursday morning and spread across the area through the afternoon. Rain chances will be highest across northwest Wisconsin, where a tenth to a quarter inch of rain is expected. Low temperatures in the mid 30s are also anticipated for tomorrow night due to higher cloud cover.

A large trough will bring rain chances and cool air close behind for the late week. Precipitation along and wrap around precipitation behind the front will keep rain chances going for Thursday night into Friday morning. There is no snow currently in the latest forecast for early Friday morning, but a few flakes falling with light rain is still possible across the Arrowhead and south shore. Strong northwest winds will surge behind the boundary late Thursday night into Friday, gusting 25 to 35 mph across the Northland, with gusts up to 45 mph near Lake Superior before diminishing Friday afternoon.

High pressure builds across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, setting the stage for very dry air to overspread the region. Forecasters are still looking at relative humidity as low as 25 percent for Saturday. Winds are expected to increase in the afternoon, but timing will depend on the speed of a warm front moving through. The combination of gusty southwest winds reaching 20 to 30 mph and the dry air mass could lead to near-critical to critical fire weather conditions on Saturday.

An upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border on Sunday, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with passing clouds. Heading into early next week, upper-level ridging will become the predominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This will maintain dry, mostly clear, and mild conditions through Monday and Tuesday. While a couple of weak shortwaves may attempt to bring a stray shower next week, dry weather is favored to dominate.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely persist at most terminals through the TAF period. Areas of rain are possible on and off through day, heaviest at KHYR. Strong north winds are expected late Thursday evening and into Friday morning. Some gusts of 35-40knots are possible.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Light southeast winds today will gradually turn to out of the southwest as rain enters from the west. Rain will persist through the overnight hours but no storms are expected. Winds will turn to out of the north with the departure of the rain early Friday morning and ramp up rapidly. Widespread gales are expected and a Gale Warning is in effect. Gales will briefly weaken Friday evening, but look to return on Saturday as winds turn to out of the southwest.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

No fire weather concerns today. Rain moves in from the west and spreads east through the day. NW WI will see the lion's share of the moisture with totals of 0.25-0.75" expected. Very windy conditions for Friday morning as the system exits, but dry air doesn't look to take hold of the region until Saturday. While winds won't be quite as strong we are still forecasting widespread gusts in excess of 25 mph. Model soundings show an immense amount of dry air aloft, and when paired with an abundance of sunshine we should see those RHs fall to 25-30%. Fire weather headlines may be needed.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150.