textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temps today and Tuesday then trending below near to below normal Wed-Fri.

- 10-30% chance of light precipitation Wednesday.

- Lake-effect rain and snow showers increasingly likely Wednesday afternoon through early Friday morning for snowbelt areas of the South Shore. A few spots may pick up an inch or two of snow in the Ashland and Iron County snowbelts, with the greatest accumulation occurring during overnight periods.

- Temps trend above normal again next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

CURRENT OVERNIGHT - TODAY:

Surface high pressure currently situated over the Northland is leading to light winds. Meanwhile, a low pressure system is moving into Manitoba, with attendant warm and cold fronts extending southward into North Dakota. Mid to high-level cloud cover is increasing across the Northland ahead of this system. As today progresses, the low pressure will track east through northwest Ontario, bringing the fronts through the Northland, with the cold front exiting east of the area this evening. CAMs vary regarding whether or not very light rain or sprinkles can reach the ground (10-20% chance) in far northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead this morning through midday, but a wedge of dry air in the 700 mb to surface layer could keep this precipitation from reaching the ground. Very little to no measurable rainfall is expected.

Expect clouds to clear out from west to east this afternoon, with seasonably warm high temperatures in the upper 40s to upper 50s this afternoon. South to southwest winds in the morning will turn to westerly this afternoon and tonight behind the cold front. Some katabatic winds are forecast for the North Shore this evening and tonight with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

TUESDAY:

Another seasonably mild and dry day is in store for Tuesday as high pressure slides through the Upper Mississippi Valley, with high temperatures in the mid/upper 40s north to low/mid 50s south. Expect partly cloudy skies during the day, with increasing cloud cover in the evening as some mid- and upper-level shortwave troughing energy approaches from the west.

TUESDAY EVENING - FRIDAY:

The next chance for light precipitation arrives Tuesday evening into Wednesday as the aforementioned shortwave trough and an attendant surface low move through the region. The best synoptic forcing with the shortwave Tuesday night into early Wednesday will be across southern portions of the Northland, but a lobe of additional vorticity moving south out of northwest Ontario daytime Wednesday will also bring low-end light precipitation potential (10-30% chances). Little to no measurable rainfall is expected at the surface. Some light flurries/snowflakes could mix in for the Iron Range and Arrowhead daytime Wednesday, but we do not anticipate any snow accumulation.

For Wednesday PM into early Friday morning, much colder 850 mb temperatures of -5 to -10 degC will move overhead, promoting light lake-effect precipitation for the South Shore due to relatively warm Lake Superior water surface of 6 to 9 degC above zero. Moisture availability has trended slightly higher relative to previous forecasts, so we have bumped up forecast QPF slightly, though it still remains limited. This precipitation will be largely rain daytime Wednesday, but transitions to a rain/snow mix Wednesday evening and mostly snow Wednesday night through Thursday before ending Thursday night/early Friday morning as high pressure settles back into the area starting on Friday. Snowfall amount probabilities have trended upwards, with a 70-90% chance for 1" or greater in the Ashland and Iron County snowbelts, but potential for 2" or greater currently sits at only 10-30%.

Expect near to slightly below normal temperatures middle to later portion of the work week with high temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s.

NEXT WEEKEND:

High pressure lingers over the Upper Midwest for next weekend, with southerly winds and mid-level ridging pushing high temperatures back into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Saturday and 40s to low 50s on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions expected overnight. There is a 5% chance of seeing MVFR visibility early this morning at BRD. LLWS will develop this morning ahead of a cool front. Expect 3-6 hours of LLWS as the jet passes over the terminals. Winds turn westerly and northwesterly behind the front. LLWS returns as strong northwest winds aloft overspread the terminals after 10.00Z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 121 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Winds become southwesterly this morning at 10 to 20 knots with a few higher gusts of 20-25 knots over the southwest arm of Lake Superior. Given the brevity and borderline potential for small craft advisory-level wind gusts, we have held off on Small Craft Advisory issuance at this time. A weak cold front will then move through late this afternoon and evening and turn winds northwesterly at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots along the North Shore. Stronger gusts to 30 knots will be possible from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed along much of the North Shore this evening and tonight. Winds then become southwesterly for Tuesday at 10 to 15 knots and northerly Tuesday night at 5 to 10 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low this week as minimum relative humidity values generally in the 40 to 60% range most days, 50 to 70% on Wednesday.

Light winds during the current overnight veer from southerly to westerly today with gusts of 10-20 mph as the cold front moves west to east across the Northland. Stronger northwest wind gusts are forecast for this evening and tonight at 20 to 30 mph for the North Shore. Generally westerly winds with gusts of 10-18 mph are forecast for Tuesday, calm Tuesday night, then turn northerly Wednesday and Thursday with gusts of 10 to 18 mph.

Largely dry conditions persist through daytime Tuesday, though some sprinkles/very light rain showers (10-20% chance) still remain for the Borderlands and Arrowhead this morning through midday. Little to no accumulating rain is expected. Tuesday night into Wednesday, 10-30% chances for spotty light precipitation return, mainly in far southern portions of the Northland Tuesday night and the Arrowhead to northwest Wisconsin on Wednesday. Most of this precipitation should be in the form of rain, though amounts remain very limited to nil. Colder air working into the area for Wednesday through early Friday will also lead to light lake-effect precipitation for the South Shore. This looks to be light rain daytime Wednesday, transitioning to a rain/snow mix Wednesday evening, and mostly snow Wednesdsay night through early Friday morning. Snow accumulation potential still looks light, with the greatest potential for 1" or greater (70-90%) in the snowbelts of Ashland and Iron counties, while the probabilities for 2" or greater in those same areas are only 10-30% at the moment.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.