textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and mainly dry for the weekend. - Isolated chance for showers Saturday afternoon along the North Shore. Afterwards the next chance for showers and storms is late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

This afternoon into tonight: Low pressure is passing through Iowa and southern Minnesota today with the bulk of the attendant synoptic rain to our south. We have had more thunderstorm activity up here this morning due to some convergence and a small amount of instability. That has resulted in some pretty good rainfall totals in the 1-3 inch range for a few areas, but this hasn't necessarily been widespread. Convection has really dropped off recently and we're left with mostly a broad area of light to moderate rain with a few embedded heavier showers. There hasn't been any lightning out there in a couple hours. With very limited instability now, this will likely be the case for another few hours early this afternoon. Later on, on the northern edge of the synoptic rain, we may expect a bit of redevelopment of some thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin with some afternoon heating. Models still want to redevelop a few showers and perhaps storms along and around the North Shore as well, owing to some midlevel convergence. Any storms will remain sub-severe, and flooding concerns at this point are very minimal. Rainfall rates have at times been pretty impressive this morning, but with current rates winding down, even a brief uptick in rates this afternoon is not likely to cause much issues. Expect low pressure to move off to the east tonight, and any lingering showers and storms should end this evening from west to east.

Saturday through Tuesday: Ridging develops on Saturday aloft with drier air filtering in. There could be a few showers that develop Saturday afternoon in or around the Arrowhead with a weak embedded shortwave passing by aloft and some surface convergence possible as we get an east-northeast lake breeze and more northerly winds inland. Temperature-wise, we get more seasonable with highs in the 70s to low 80s. The 70s are expected around Lake Superior with onshore flow.

The onshore flow will persist into Sunday around Lake Superior, but inland, wind direction will switch to more east to southeasterly as surface high pressure to our north moves east and we get some return flow. Sunday's highs will be pretty similar to Saturday, but nighttime lows in north-central Minnesota start to climb a bit with warm air advection developing as we go into Monday.

Widespread low 80s are looking likely on Monday with pretty uniform southerly flow except onshore right by Lake Superior. A cold front is expected to move through Tuesday, and ahead of that Monday night, showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop. At this time, it's looking most likely that any severe threat will be over in eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota based on timing and diurnal instability. If that trend changes such that the front moves faster, that could put a little of our area (e.g. Brainerd Lakes towards International Falls) at a greater risk for seeing a few stronger storms. In general, we might have potential for up to 1.5 kJ/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40 kt 0-6 km shear which could promote a few strong to severe storms, but more likely is that this threat will be largely to our west and we will get the leftovers with some rain and general thunderstorms moving through Monday night. Strong winds and perhaps some hail will be the main threats if any stronger storms were to happen, but it's a pretty low (<10%) chance at this time.

Showers and storms will gradually continue east on Tuesday, lingering into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin potentially. Cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s are expected on Tuesday following the front.

Wednesday through Friday: Another relatively cool and quiet day on Wednesday with highs likely in the 70s. Flow aloft is looking like it will become more quasi-zonal with several passing waves. We may have some more rain chances around Thursday into Thursday night, then perhaps again around Friday into Friday night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Upper level clouds are rotating across the region this evening as a low pressure system moves across IA. Trailing behind this system we have a cold front that is crossing the Northland with clearing skies across our northwest. There is potential for some fog development over the next few hours with models largely suggesting it being mostly for HYR. Can't fully rule out some fog forming elsewhere, but wind speeds may be just a tad too strong to allow formation. Quiet weather for Saturday with diurnal cumulus populating and northerly winds expected. Some precipitation will be possible in the afternoon across the Arrowhead, but this is not expected to impact any of the terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 948 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Gusty east to northeast winds are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon as a notable lake breeze moves onshore and well- inland. A few gusts approach the 25 knots into the southwest arm and near Saxon Harbor regions of western waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these conditions as the waves also forecast to build to 2 to 3 feet. A time period to watch will be the Saturday early morning time period with a few high-res guidance models progging this time period for a 1-2 hour wind for gusty conditions too. The Small Craft Advisory timing may well have to be adjusted if confidence increases on this scenario actually occurring tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, expect east to northeast winds again Sunday which will also have to be monitored for potential Advisory needs in time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Rain continues for east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin through this evening. Additional widespread amounts are expected to be light, less than a quarter inch, but several locations should pick up locally higher amounts with some heavier showers and possibly a few thunderstorms possible this evening in east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.

On Saturday, there's a ~20-30% chance for a few showers mainly around the Arrowhead during the afternoon. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light.

Otherwise, pretty quiet weather Saturday through Monday. Light north winds Saturday, southeast winds in northern MN Sunday with some gusts in the 20 mph range, and south winds with gusts around 15-25 mph Monday pretty much everywhere (best chances on the MN side though). While min RH values are generally expected to reach the 40-50% range, it wouldn't be surprising if there are some lower amounts due to lack of rainfall in northeast Minnesota. We will have to monitor trends and see what happens on Saturday, as this will be telling for Sunday and Monday's conditions, which will likely be similar.

A cold front Monday night will likely bring some rain and thunderstorms. There is potential for a wetting rain for many areas.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ144-145-148-150.