textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. A few tornadoes are also possible.

- Warm temperatures today will trend a little cooler Thursday before a warming trend returns Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will climb to 10-20 degrees above normal.

- Thursday and Friday should be dry then precipitation chances return Saturday and Saturday night south of US-2. Widespread precip chances forecast Monday through next Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT:

As of 330 PM... Storms continued over central and southern Minnesota in the warm sector of a nascent low pressure system centered near STC. The warm front extended eastward roughly along MN/WI-70 while a cold front was farther west over southwest Minnesota. Temperatures were in the upper 50s and low 60s over western Wisconsin into central Minnesota with dewpoints in the 50s. The 18Z MPX sounding revealed two elevated mixed layers which were keeping the eastward extent of convection limited. Hodographs over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin were supportive of supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes. The main question is whether storms can become surface-based. Storms are expected to lift northeastward into the Brainerd Lakes and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and this evening. Areas of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent portions of east-central Minnesota saw partial sunshine this afternoon which will aid in storm development and maintenance.

Precipitation over north-central Minnesota will persist this evening in response to the strengthening low pressure. Look for that precipitation to persist and propagate eastward over the Arrowhead by late evening.

Partial clearing is expected as the precipitation dwindles tonight.

THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND:

Behind the departing cold front tonight, a cooler and drier air mass will sweep into our region for Thursday. High temperatures will trend noticeably cooler and near to slightly above normal;, generally topping out in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Partial clearing is expected early, particularly south of US-2. By late morning, cold air advection atop modest warming should permit development of a broad shallow cumulus field. Gusty west to northwest winds will make it feel a bit brisk throughout the day. These winds will gradually diminish as we head through the afternoon and cold air advection weakens, setting the stage for a quiet and chilly evening with lows dipping into the 20s.

Quiet and pleasant weather holds across the area on Friday as the surface high pressure slides to our east. Winds will be lighter, and temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper 40s to upper 50s under plentiful sunshine. Highs Friday will be 5 to 12 degrees above normal. As we head into the weekend, return flow will pull even warmer air northward, resulting in temperatures climbing back to ten to twenty degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s to upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday and Sunday, while overnight lows remain well above freezing.

A warm front will slowly lift northward across the Midwest into southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Isentropic ascent north of the front enhanced by a northeastward propagating shortwave trough will bring a chance of showers to areas south of US-2 in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Rain amounts should be light.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

By Monday and Tuesday, the chance for widespread precipitation return as a larger and better organized storm system moves into the central CONUS. Models are split on how that system will evolve. The latest GFS points to a cutoff low developing over the central Plains while the ECMWF features a more progressive trough lifting northeastward across the Upper Midwest. Cloud cover and periods of rain will keep conditions somewhat dreary, though temperatures are expected to remain on the mild side for late October. Forecast models suggest that this system could bring a beneficial soaking rain to much of the region before precipitation gradually tapers off toward the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 652 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A line of thunderstorms is passing KHYR as of issuance time, well ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through the terminals over the next several hours. Winds ahead of the storms were southerly, but behind the line of storms veer westerly, then northwesterly behind the cold front. Between the line of storms and the cold front, flying conditions vary from LIFR ceilings all the way to VFR, with visibilities IFR to VFR, which are gradually improving with time. Behind the cold front, we expect conditions to become less variable, as an area of low end VFR stratus slides into the area overnight. LLWS is forecast at HIB, BRD and INL where northwest winds aloft will be strongest overnight. During the daytime on Thursday, we expect that area of stratus to continue to push into the area and lower to MVFR for KINL, KHIB and KDLH during the morning hours. These ceilings should slowly lift during the daytime and return to VFR. Gusty westerly winds will also develop on Thursday, gusting to around 20kts for most of the terminals from mid-morning through late afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

East and northeast winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will move over the waters late this afternoon and tonight ahead of and behind a cold front. Winds will weaken and veer westerly and southwesterly immediately behind the front and strengthen to 10-20 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots. Small Craft Advisories were issued from early Thursday morning until 7 PM Thursday evening. Winds decrease and become northwesterly Thursday night. Winds and waves are unlikely to pose a hazard to boaters again until early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rain and thunderstorms will taper off tonight. Rain totals will range from a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch over north- central Minnesota to 3/4 to 1 inch or more over northwest Wisconsin. Thursday will bring west and northwest winds at 5 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph in the morning. Wind speeds and gusts are expected to decrease through the afternoon. Min RH may fall to around 40 percent for portions of NW Wisconsin with values between 45 and 55 percent elsewhere. A little drier Friday with min RH between 35 and 45 percent. Lowest RH values will be in northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be lighter than Thursday. There will be a small chance of rain south of US-2 in Minnesota and Wisconsin Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. Most of the area should stay rain-free. Temps will be warm with highs in the 50s Saturday and middle 50s to low 60s Sunday. Widespread rain chances return Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ121- 140>145-148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ146- 147-150.