textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and an isolated storm are possible today, but most of the Northland will remain dry and pleasant.

- Hot and humid conditions return Monday, followed by a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday evening into the overnight.

- Flash flooding becomes a concern Tuesday and Wednesday as a stationary front lingers in the region with high atmospheric moisture content and favorable for heavy rainfall along the front flow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

High pressure and an upper level ridge are over the Northland today, providing a generally pleasant and quiet end to the holiday weekend. There is still a bit of lingering moisture and minor instability across the region, which could spark a few meandering, isolated rain showers or perhaps a stray non-severe thunderstorm this afternoon. Most folks will stay completely dry with light winds and comfortable humidity levels. Expect high temperatures to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s inland, while onshore northeast winds keep the immediate Lake Superior shoreline noticeably cooler. Tonight will feature mostly clear skies and quiet weather as high pressure drifts overhead.

Monday brings a noticeable shift in the airmass as southerly return flow pulls hot and humid conditions back into the area. High temperatures will surge well into the middle and upper 80s for a vast majority of the region. Most of the daylight hours will remain dry under plenty of sunshine. However, a cold front will begin to drop southward out of Canada by late afternoon and evening. As this front interacts with the hot and unstable airmass, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and track northwest to southeast across the area Monday evening into the overnight hours. A few of these storms could be strong to severe, packing a threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

The weather pattern becomes highly concerning for late Tuesday through the day Wednesday as the aforementioned cold front stalls out and becomes a stationary boundary draped directly across our region. We are closely monitoring this period for a heavy rainfall threat. The intense moisture pooling along the stalled boundary creates a highly favorable setup for training thunderstorms and scattered flash flooding. The Euro EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) signal for this timeframe has been trending upwards suggesting higher chances for a significant heavy rainfall event. The forecast ceiling (the maximum percentile from the NBM for this setup) for rainfall looks to be around 7 inches. While this represents what could happen over a small area, the mean gives a better idea of more widespread chances which are more than 1" for at least half of our forecast area. The most likely area for this is along a band from Brainerd to Moose Lake to Ashland. The northern side of this band will likely fade QPF quickly to its north leaving the Borderlands out of significant rainfall. Now, as the earlier discussion mentioned there is still a bit of uncertainty with the location of where the cold front stalls and turns into a stationary front. Upper level flow still looks favorable to pump moisture up and over the front somewhere in our forecast area Tuesday into Wednesday.

By Thursday, the heavy rain producing system will finally push east of the region, bringing a much needed reprieve from the oppressive humidity and unsettled weather. High pressure will build back in, allowing dewpoints to fall back into the more comfortable 50s and lower 60s. High temperatures will generally hover in the upper 70s to lower 80s for Thursday and Friday with plenty of sunshine and dry conditions expected. As we head into next weekend, upper level ridging will begin to amplify once again over the central United States, which will slowly start to dial the heat and humidity back up across the Northland.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail across all Northland terminals for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and generally variable under 10 knots today, eventually favoring an easterly or southeasterly direction. There is a very low probability of a stray rain shower or thunderstorm impacting KHYR this afternoon, but confidence remains too low to include anything beyond a PROB30 mention. Winds shift southerly on Monday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Quiet and benign conditions are expected across Western Lake Superior today. Northeast winds around 5 to 10 knots will continue, keeping waves at 1 to 2 feet or less. Winds will become light and variable by Monday, allowing a localized lake breeze to develop during the afternoon hours. The next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the lake will arrive Monday evening and Monday night. No hazardous marine headlines are expected through the next 72 hours.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Fire weather concerns remain very low through the forecast period. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 35 to 45 percent range this afternoon across the Minnesota Arrowhead, but light winds will preclude any fire concerns. Southerly winds increase to 5 to 10 mph on Monday alongside hotter temperatures, but increasing moisture will keep humidity well above critical thresholds. Widespread wetting rains are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday though as the main discussion eludes to, there is uncertainty in where the heaviest rains set up. A return to heat afterwards.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.