textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions persist for tonight with another chilly night expected.

- Temperatures warm through the weekend and into early next week. A few spotty showers are possible Saturday.

- A large system will impact the Upper Midwest for Monday into Tuesday with significant rainfall amounts expected for much of the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Surface high pressure stretched from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes early this afternoon. Mainly clear skies were observed from the Iron Range northward with cloud cover moving in from the south. Dry conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight with highs in the 40s and lower 50s and lows tonight falling into the upper 20s to middle 30s.

The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east tonight with warmer 850mb temps advecting northward. A weak warm front will lift from the Central Plains late tonight into southern South Dakota and southern Minnesota by Saturday evening. Warm air advection and isentropic lift with the front will lead to chances for showers through the day and into the evening. Rainfall amounts will be light and dry air near the surface will likely limit what reaches the ground. Highs will be in the 50s with temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s after sunset. Sunday looks mainly dry outside of a few spotty showers as temperatures continue to warm. Highs will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with lows in the 40s.

The pattern turns more active heading into the new week with a large system impacting the central CONUS in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. A deep trough will dig into the Rockies Sunday night into Monday with surface low pressure developing across eastern Colorado. This low moves northeast through the day Monday and into the Upper Midwest Monday night. Widespread rainfall will spread across the Northland through the day Monday and into Monday night. Heading into Tuesday, an upper low will drop out of the Canadian Prairies and interact with the system over the Upper Midwest. Questions remain as to what will happen during the interaction, but what is known is that rainfall will continue for Tuesday into Tuesday night as the system slowly moves through the region. PWATs with this system will be in excess of an inch and approach an inch and a quarter, which would be over the 90th percentile for the date and near the daily max. Widespread rainfall amounts of three-quarters of inch to 1.25 inches is expected with an axis of higher amounts in excess of 2 inches. This heaviest axis of rainfall has been wobbling across the region from model run to run, so placement is uncertain at this time. However, the signal for it remains strong. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.

Chances for showers will linger for Wednesday as this system departs with drier conditions for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds in. Cooler air will filter in behind the system with highs retreating into the 40s and 50s for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region this afternoon with high pressure in place. This area of high pressure will also keep winds variable at under 5 knots into Saturday morning. Ceilings will lower from the south Saturday morning with MVFR conditions moving into BRD after sunrise. A stray shower may accompany these lower ceilings, but chances mainly hold off until after 18z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Minimal marine concerns are expected through the weekend. Winds will increase early next week as a large system moves into the region. Breezy northeasterly winds Monday and again Tuesday may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High pressure will keep light winds and dry conditions in place for this afternoon. RH values will bottom out in the 35 to 50% range with driest values along the higher terrain of the North Shore and into the Wisconsin Pine Barrens. Mainly cloudy skies with chances for showers will be seen for Saturday, but any accumulations will remain under a tenth of an inch. Better chances for rainfall arrive for Monday and Tuesday with chances lingering into midweek. The Monday-Tuesday system looks to bring widespread rainfall with accumulations of at least a half inch for most locations. Higher amounts of 1.5-2" plus will be possible as well, mainly across the southern half of the region. This axis of heavier rainfall has moved around over the past few days, but the signal remains fairly strong for a good soaking over most of the Northland.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.