textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures are forecast through the next 7 days. Temperatures trend closer to normal by next Wednesday. Highs will be 10 to 20 degrees above normal starting Friday.

- Quiet weather continues through the weekend. There is a 10% chance of light snow Sunday night.

- A more active pattern is forecast next week. A low pressure system may move through the Midwest Tuesday through Thursday which brings a risk of wintry mixed precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

High pressure over the region gave generally clear skies today. A few clouds persisted over the eastern Arrowhead, portions of northwest Wisconsin, and central Minnesota. A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Prairies was noted in mesoanalysis and GOES-East water vapor imagery. The shortwave trough will scoot eastward and weaken overnight. Surface high pressure will shift farther east allowing a southerly low-level return flow to develop tonight. There appears to be sufficient low-level moisture for weak isentropic ascent to create low stratus over central Minnesota this evening which will spread northward with time overnight. There is a question of how far east the stratus will progress which creates uncertainty in low temperature forecasts tonight. Areas that see stratus will likely stay 3 to 10 or more degrees warmer than areas that remain clear. Low temps tonight are forecast in the lower single digits above zero in the Arrowhead and much of northwest Wisconsin to the middle to upper teens in central and north-central Minnesota.

Low stratus is expected to dissipate by late Thursday morning with another day of quiet and warmer temperatures expected. Highs in the upper 20s along the North Shore to the upper 30s away from Lake Superior. Warm and relatively quiet conditions will persist through the weekend. A subtle trough may move eastward across the region Sunday night and Monday morning. Right now the risk of snow is around 10%.

A change to a more active pattern is expected next week. A deep upper-level trough will develop over the eastern Pacific over the weekend. The trough is forecast to propagate eastward gradually through late next Thursday. Strong upper-level flow over the central CONUS will bring the potential for one or more strong low pressure systems to develop and traverse the Midwest. There is a very wide spread in model solutions during that time. Many models bring some form of precipitation into the Northland. As of this afternoon most solutions reveal a rain/snow mix trending toward snow in later portions of the forecast. Shovelable and plowable snowfall amounts are not out of the question. Keep up with the forecast through the weekend into early next week as we refine the details.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds expected through the forecast with high surface pressure over the region. Backed off on low stratus fog potential a lot overnight as models have trended much drier would put the chances of this forming at less than 10%. Southerly winds pick up after 15Z Thu.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 324 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

No significant marine hazards forecast for the next several days as high pressure drifts east across the region. A period of stronger winds and building waves is possible early next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.