textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures and dry today through most of daytime Saturday.

- Scattered rain shower chances (20-40%) late Saturday afternoon/evening into early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts will be light.

- A stronger clipper will bring additional chances (50-60%) of rain showers to the Northland Sunday night through Monday evening, with additional light precipitation amounts and breezy west to northwest winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Rest of Today - Daytime Saturday:

Surface high pressure in the region is keeping the Northland dry today with plenty of sunshine. There are a few daytime cumulus clouds that have developed and will persist until closer to sunset along with occasional north to northwest winds with gusts to around 15-20 mph also weakening and becoming light towards sunset, but overall plenty of sunshine to go around. High temperatures top out in the mid/upper-40s near Lake Superior shoreline and in the MN Arrowhead and north-central WI, while 50F/low-50s farther inland. Deeper low-level mixing has already pushed relative humidities into the mid 20s to 30s (%) for much of the area, driest in north-central Minnesota. Expect relative humidities to dip down another 3-5% before the end of the afternoon before recovering this evening, which could lead to pockets of near-critical fire weather conditions. However, widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are not expected. Lows tonight dip below freezing.

Most of daytime Saturday will be dry, though cloud cover will be on the increase towards late morning and the afternoon. Winds will be fairly light out of the southwest, with some afternoon gusts to around 15 mph given deeper low-level mixing. Look for minimum afternoon relative humidities to dip down into the 25-35% range once again, lowest in the Arrowhead, St. Croix River Valley, and Wisconsin Pine Barrens. While widespread near-critical fire weather conditions are not expected, it could occur on a localized basis. High temperatures Saturday afternoon top out several degrees warmer than today into the 50s for most and pockets of low 60s in north-central and east- central MN.

Saturday Evening - Early Sunday:

A weak, fast-moving clipper system and associated cool front will move NW to SE through the Northland Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. Rain accumulations of around or less than one- tenth of an inch expected and many locations may not see measurable rainfall at all. Low temperatures Saturday night largely remain above freezing, ranging from mid-30s near the International Border to low 40s in southern portions of the Northland.

Sunday - Monday Night:

Winds turn northwesterly and breezy on Sunday with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, with a brief period of drying and clearing skies that could bring afternoon RH values back down into the 25-35% range, which could again lead to pockets of near-critical fire weather conditions. Another seasonable day with temperatures in the mid-50s north to low/mid-60s south.

A stronger clipper system will move across the Northland Sunday night through Monday evening. This clipper won't have significant amounts of moisture to work with (PWATs only around 0.5"), so accumulations are forecast to only be around a few hundredths to couple tenths of an inch, highest in the MN Arrowhead. Some very limited instability could also produce a couple weak thunderstorms in inland NW WI Monday afternoon. Depending on how quickly the precipitation moves out, colder air arriving behind the cold front could produce some brief snowflakes mix in with the rain on Monday evening in the MN Arrowhead. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures are expected Monday and Monday night in the wake of the cold front, with lows dipping to around freezing to several degrees below freezing.

Rest of Next Week:

Broad upper-level troughing persists across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes for much of the remainder of next work week, keeping a pool of colder 850-mb temperatures over the region that will largely keep high temperatures in the 40s to low/mid-50s Tuesday-Thursday with lows largely below freezing. Some southerly surface winds on Friday and receding of the coldest portion of the 850-mb temperatures should lead to high temperatures rebounding back towards normal in the mid-50s to mid-60s for most of the Northland. There is a low (20% chance) for diurnal rain showers each day Tuesday-Thursday, but little to no accumulations are expected. Despite the cooler temperatures, minimum relative humidity values each day should dip into the upper 20s to 30s (%), which could lead to near- critical fire weather conditions each afternoon Tuesday-Friday depending on how much cloud cover is present and the coverage of light rain shower chances each day.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites. Winds light/variable overnight, then increasing southwesterly winds on Saturday with gusts to 15-20 knots Saturday afternoon, strongest at BRD. Increasing mid-level clouds through the day Saturday from west to east as a clipper approaches. There is a very low chance (10-20 percent) for light rain at all sites Saturday afternoon/evening but VFR conditions will prevail even if there is a brief period of light rain.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

The rest of today and Saturday will be quiet on western Lake Superior with variable winds up to 10 knots, and a few gusts to 15 knots primarily near Grand Portage. A weak low pressure system and cool front will quickly pass through the region Saturday night into early Sunday and will bring a chance of scattered, light rain showers. Behind the front, winds become westerly on Sunday at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to to 15 to 20 knots. Winds turn southwesterly again Sunday night into Monday morning and then northwesterly during the afternoon, as a stronger low pressure system moves just north of the International Border. Expect additional light rain showers with this system. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots are forecast with gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Those conditions will likely be hazardous to smaller vessels. There is also a 10-20% chance of gales over the waters of the North Shore Monday and Monday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Generally light north to northwest winds this afternoon into early evening and some isolated to scattered cumulus, with wind gusts periodically to 15 mph with daytime heating before becoming light and variable tonight. Min afternoon RH values dip to 20-35%, with the lowest of these (20-25%) in north-central MN and into the St. Croix River Valley along with deep mixing heights. RH recovers to 65-80% tonight. Highs top out in the mid-40s to low/mid-50s with overnight lows below freezing.

Several degrees warmer for Saturday with southwest winds and afternoon gusts up to around 15 mph. Highs will be in the upper 40s along the North Shore to the low/mid-60s in central Minnesota. Min afternoon RH values will bottom out between 25 and 35 percent again. There are low chances (20-40%) for light rain Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as a weak clipper system crosses the area. Any rainfall accumulations will be around or less than one tenth of an inch.

Sunday will be another seasonable day with high temperatures in the 50s to low/mid-60s. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the early Sunday clipper system with speeds of 8-15 mph and gusts . Wind speeds and gusts will be a little stronger 8 to 15 mph sustained with gusts of 13 to 21 mph. Afternoon RH values once again dip into the 25 to 35 percent range, locally down to 20% in the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. Both Saturday and Sunday have the potential for pockets of near-critical fire given the lower min RHs and then the breezier winds on Sunday.

Another clipper system moves through Sunday night through Monday night, bringing additional rain chances (50-60%). Amounts still look to be up to a couple tenths of an inch or less, highest in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Breezy west to northwest winds are in store again for Monday though min RH won't be as low at 35-45%.

The remainder of next work week will see largely northwest winds, with late morning to afternoon gusts generally around 15 mph, with pockets to 20 mph. Some uncertainty in amount of cloud cover and isolated/scattered diurnal shower chances (10-20%), which will play a factor on min RH forecasts. Generally looking at upper 20s to 30s (%) min RH values each afternoon, however.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.