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KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog through early this morning, mainly in northwest Wisconsin.

- Warm, dry, and breezy today. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible in northwest WI.

- Light, scattered showers and a couple embedded storms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, mainly in east- central MN into northwest WI.

- Warm with on-and-off rain/storm chances Thursday into next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Current Conditions - Today:

Clear to mostly clear skies have set up over the Northland during the current overnight hours as we sit in an area of post-cold front surface high pressure while a vertically stacked low-pressure churns into far northwestern Ontario. Winds have been light to calm under these clear skies, especially in northwest Wisconsin where areas of dense fog have developed. This fog has not become widespread, but if it trends that way a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Other portions of the Northland could see patchy fog through early this morning, particularly where winds go calm. Fog should dissipate within 1-3 hours after sunrise this morning.

For the rest of today, expect mostly sunny conditions in the morning with high cloud cover increasing from SW to NE across the area this afternoon and evening. Temperatures will be warm once again with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest in east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin. Winds will also be breezy out of the west, especially this afternoon and early evening. The dry and breezy conditions this afternoon into early evening could produce some elevated fire weather conditions, mainly in east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin where minimum relative humidities will be lowest (i.e. 30-35%). West winds and downslope flow along the north- shore could also lead to some compressional warming and a few spots with lower relative humidity this afternoon, as well.

Tonight - Wednesday:

A quasi-stationary front settles into the Minnesota/Iowa border into southwest Wisconsin for tonight into Wednesday morning in association with mid- and upper-level shortwave energy moving through zonal flow aloft. This will bring some scattered showers and perhaps a few embedded, general thunderstorms to portions of east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. However, better coverage of storms is expected to remain to our south. Precipitation amounts look limited as this precipitation will be fighting against a large amount of dry air in the lower and middle portions of the atmosphere. Generally expect a few hundredths of an inch to 0.1-0.15" at best, with the highest amounts expected in Price County.

Expect dry conditions elsewhere in the Northland for Wednesday with seasonably warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s alongside lighter winds and decreasing cloud cover late as high pressure briefly returns.

Thursday and Beyond:

Previous forecast remains valid with no major changes. See the last paragraph of the "DISCUSSION" section below for more details.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Clouds are clearing out from west to east this afternoon as a cold/occluded front passes through. While the air is moist and should become unstable this afternoon ahead of the front, the clouds ongoing right now are likely to inhibit convective initiation in our area. Models have really continued to trend dry this afternoon with thunderstorms possible into the UP and northeast Wisconsin. We will have to keep a keen eye on things this afternoon in case there does happen to be a bit more clearing than expected and storms can initiate further west, but right now confidence is high that northwest Wisconsin will remain dry this afternoon.

Into tonight, nearly vertically stacked low pressure will slowly drift east up in Canada and we will be within the warm sector to the south with quiet (but warm) weather expected tonight into Tuesday. Light winds tonight may result in some fog tonight, but widespread dense fog is not likely. Tuesday afternoon, dry and breezy conditions could result in some elevated fire weather, mainly for northwest Wisconsin.

A quasi-stationary front may develop and produce an area of showers/storms Tuesday night. Models differ on how far north the showers/storms may make it, but east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin have the best chances for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Not a lot of instability is expected, so severe storms are not expected either.

Wednesday is looking like an "in-between" kind of day with low pressure well to our northeast and ridging off to our west. Winds will likely be light from approximately the northwest, temperatures will be warm with highs around 80, and clouds may decrease through the day with potentially some drier air moving in.

On Thursday, we may end up in a "dirty ridge" pattern with warm air and moisture advection from the south and potential for a warm front to bring some rain/storm chances in. This sort of unorganized, slightly chaotic pattern underneath a broad ridge looks to continue into the weekend, so look for more occasional shower/storm chances and warm weather. While there are no clear signals for severe weather at this time, it's possible that ingredients could aligns for a few severe storms on some of the days from Thursday into next weekend. Signals for widespread, drought-improving rainfall don't appear imminent, but certainly some places could pick up some decent rain if thunderstorms develop.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Still seeing LIFR to MVFR fog bouncing around at HIB and HYR, with dense fog elsewhere in northwest Wisconsin. Expect fog to dissipate towards 13-14Z, with VFR conditions returning this morning under clear skies and increasing high clouds this afternoon into tonight. Stronger westerly daytime gusts of 15-23 kt develop today, strongest in northeast Minnesota, before becoming light to calm again this evening and tonight. Some additional fog is possible at HIB/INL tonight. Scattered showers move through east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight into early Wednesday morning, mainly affecting HYR. Can't rule out an embedded thunderstorm for HYR, but the potential is less than 10%. Dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere may prevent most of the precipitation from reaching the ground and expect conditions for HYR to remain VFR as showers move through.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Dense fog continues in portions of the Apostle Islands through around sunrise and along the North Shore northeast of Silver Bay through mid-morning. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect. Expect fog to clear from southwest to northeast from early to mid- morning as winds turn southwesterly over western Lake Superior.

Winds will increase out of the southwest today, with gusts up to 20-25 kt in much of the SW arm, Apostle Islands, and North Shore from around midday through early evening before winds weaken and turn light from the northwest tonight. Winds will be strongest near Grand Marias to Grand Portage where 2-4 ft waves are forecast to develop. Small Craft Advisories have been issued.

Winds remain light at around 10 kt or less for Wednesday and Wednesday night before turning northeast Thursday through Saturday. Diurnal wind components to the onshore flow could lead to conditions hazardous to small craft for portions of western Lake Superior nearshore waters on Thursday and Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Patchy fog expected this morning, with areas of dense fog in northwest Wisconsin burning off within 1-3 hours after sunrise. Expect dry conditions through this evening. The Brainerd Lakes east into east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin are expected to see the lowest min RH this afternoon at 30-35%. There is also a 50-60% chance for min RH to dip to 25-30% in the Pine Barrens and parts of the South Shore. Downsloping of westerly winds along the North Shore could lead to localized pockets of 30-35% min RH, as well. When combined with westerly winds gusting to around 18-22 mph and high temperatures in the 80s, elevated fire weather conditions will be possible in east- central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin. High-level cloud cover will be on the increase from SW to NE this afternoon and evening.

Winds weaken and become light to calm this evening and tonight, with RH recovery above 90% for most locations. Lighter winds and a bit more humidity is expected Wednesday, so fire weather concerns are minimal. Some light, scattered rain and perhaps a couple embedded thunderstorms are in store for east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin tonight. Amounts will likely be 0.05-0.15" or less as rain will be fighting dry air in the low to middle portions of the atmosphere. Price County would have the best chance to see the higher end of the rain range.

On-and-off rain chances for showers and storms return for Thursday into the weekend, so min RH should largely remain above 50% during that timeframe. Widespread wetting rains are not expected, but locations that see storms move overhead will see some rainfall.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 007>009. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>147-150.