textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Some light snow/flurries linger in the Iron Range and areas north and east through mid-morning. Less than 0.5 inches of additional accumulation expected.

- Dry for most of today through Saturday morning with a daily freeze-thaw cycle.

- Widespread rainfall with periods of thunderstorms for late Saturday into the new week. Some areas may see over an inch of rain and this could lead to some minor flooding, especially in areas where rain falls on remaining snowpack.

UPDATE

Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Through this Morning:

Current observations and regional radar imagery as of 1 AM depict scattered snow showers from near the Twin Ports to Grand Rapids and for areas north in association with an occluded low pressure centered across northwestern Ontario. This system will continue tracking northeast towards James Bay by late this morning. In the cyclonic flow in it's wake, enough low-level moisture should be present to keep at least isolated snow showers and flurries persisting through mid-morning today for areas along and north of the Iron Range. Additional snowfall amounts remain limited at less than 0.5". Many spots may not see any additional accumulations.

Today - Friday:

While surface high pressure builds in for today and Friday and leave the Northland largely dry during this period, shortwave energy passing through late this afternoon and evening interacting with some low-level frontogenesis in central/southern Minnesota into western Wisconsin should kick off some very light rain showers. While most of the precipitation should pass south of the area, there is a 10-20% chance that areas along and south of a Brainerd to Hinckley to Phillips line could see the very light rain/snow showers late this afternoon and evening. There will be a dry layer about 4000-8000 feet above the ground that would have to saturate first if any precipitation is to be seen. Otherwise, radar may pick up on some precipitation aloft during that time, but it wouldn't reach the ground (i.e. virga).

Cloudy skies hang around much of the day today, with highs upper 30s to upper 40s, warmest in northwest Wisconsin. Friday will trend warmer with highs in the 40s for northern Minnesota to Twin Ports/South Shore and low to mid 50s from the Brainerd Lakes to inland Northwest Wisconsin. There will be a daily freeze-thaw cycle with above freezing temperatures during the day and below freezing at night through Friday night, which will lead to some gradual melt from the remaining snowpack and refreeze overnight each night.

Saturday:

A warm and moist advection regime begins daytime Saturday as the surface high pressure departs to the east. Saturday should start out initially dry and then see the atmospheric column begin to Saturate by the afternoon/evening as some low-level frontogenesis/isentropic upglide. However, some mid to upper- level ridging will still be in place, so rainfall coverage should not be widespread with lighter rates initially until the better and deeper synoptic lift arrives with the approaching mid and upper-level shortwave trough Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures on Saturday warm into the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest in northwest Wisconsin as the warm advection begins to push warmer air into the region.

Beyond Saturday:

The synoptic pattern and message for the remainder of the forecast period Saturday night into next week has not changed substantially, so the remainder of the previous discussion remains valid.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Low pressure was located just west of Winnipeg early this afternoon with an occluded front extending to a triple point near the Twin Ports. A cold front trailed back into far western Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, central Iowa, far southeastern Nebraska, and into Kansas. A warm front extended from the triple point into northern and eastern Wisconsin. A slow moving band of rain and snow showers was located along/ahead of the front from northeastern Minnesota into central Minnesota. Snowfall was intense earlier under this band to lead to snow squalls. This band will slowly move to the east into this evening. Additional development is possible ahead of the band across northwest Wisconsin and there is already hints of that on radar. Behind the front, CAMs are keying in on convective showers developing over the next few hours across northwestern and north-central Minnesota. Steep lapse rates and a hint of CAPE may lead to an isolated lightning strike or two across north-central Minnesota with this activity. A few snow squalls will also be possible with the steep lapse rates and the snow squall parameter lighting up across northern Minnesota as well. Activity diminishes overnight as the low passes through the region.

High pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday bringing mainly dry conditions. A few light snow showers may linger in the cyclonic flow aloft across the Arrowhead, but chances appear to be low. Another weak band of precipitation may slide to our south during the afternoon and overnight in association with a bit of jet phasing overhead. Little to no accumulations are expected from this activity. Highs Thursday will be in the 30s and 40s with 40s and 50s for Friday and Saturday. With the warm daytime temperatures, this will eat away at the remaining snowpack with some refreeze overnight.

As the high shifts east Saturday into Saturday night, warm, moist return flow will set up across the central CONUS with a connection to the Gulf. This will prime the atmosphere for a widespread rain event starting Saturday night/Sunday morning. Periods of moderate to at times heavy rainfall is expected Sunday into Sunday evening. Models diverge after that point with the ECMWF advertising a break before another area of low pressure arrives Monday night into Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps precipitation going right on through Tuesday with minimal break. Some snow may mix in at times Monday into Tuesday as cooler air starts to mix in on the backside. There is also the potential for some strong to severe storms in the Upper Midwest Monday as well, but whether that threat extends into the Northland remains to be seen. Precipitation totals of 1-2 inches of liquid looks likely at this point with the highest amounts across northwest Wisconsin. This would lead to accelerated snowmelt which could lead to rises on area rivers and streams. Another clipper looks possible later in the week. Highs Sunday and Monday may reach into the 50s and 60s with some 70s far south before cooling into the 30s and 40s heading into mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Largely precipitation-free this morning, though observations and radar do show some isolated light snow showers near the international border. These could impact INL and the Borderlands through around 15Z this morning, with little to no impacts. Otherwise, IFR to MVFR ceilings overspreading the area this morning in low stratus, with the IFR ceilings mainly at INL and perhaps briefly at HIB. Ceilings gradually improve to VFR at DLH/BRD/HYR during this afternoon, and near to just above MVFR INL/HIB this evening, then scatter out tonight.

A low pressure system passing to the south of the area could graze HYR with some light rain/snow for a few hours this evening, but will be on the northern fringe of whether precipitation reaches the ground or evaporates before reaching the ground. The precipitation potential at HYR is largely less than 30%, though some MVFR ceilings should be seen there this evening. Westerly winds gusting to 15-25 kt early this morning will back northwest for today with gusts gradually diminishing throughout the morning into early afternoon before becoming light to calm tonight as high pressure moves in.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Southwesterly winds will become more westerly behind a cold front and increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25-30 knots early this morning. These winds will generate waves of 3 to 5 feet along the northern Bayfield Peninsula, Outer Apostle Islands and offshore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage through mid-morning. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds and waves weaken towards midday, ending the hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. High pressure builds in for the rest of today and Friday with variable winds at 5 to 15 knots this evening into Friday morning and southwesterly Friday afternoon and evening.

Winds increase out of the southeast to around 15 to 20 kt late Saturday into Saturday night ahead of an approaching low pressure system.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Some spotty, light snow showers/flurries in the Iron Range and areas north through mid-morning today. Additional accumulations of less than 0.5 inches expected, with many locations not seeing any additional snow accumulation. Looking at mostly cloudy to cloudy skies for the remainder of today as surface high pressure moves in. Look for highs into the upper 30s to upper 40s, warmest in the I-35 corridor into NW WI. Min afternoon RH drops to 35-45% for the Brainerd Lakes east into inland NW WI and 45-60% elsewhere. There is a 10-20% chance for very light rain showers along and south of a Brainerd to Hinckley to Phillips line late this afternoon and evening, but dry air in the 4000-8000 ft layer of the atmosphere may result in this being virga instead. No appreciable rain accumulations expected. Northwest winds of 15-25 mph in store this morning, strongest near Lake Superior. However, winds weaken by this afternoon and become light and variable tonight.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday with high pressure overhead. Winds will be light out of the northwest, though afternoon gusts could reach 10-15 mph with peak daytime heating. High temperatures will top out in the 40s to mid 50s. Given a signal for deeper mixing heights up to 6000-7500 ft Friday afternoon, min RH values fall to 25-45%, and below 35% from the Brainerd Lakes to Twin Ports and into NW WI. These RH values may trend even lower, especially in southern portions of the Northland that are snow-free. Widespread rainfall is expected for late Saturday into early next week with many locations seeing 1 or more inches of rainfall potential for eastern Minnesota into the Arrowhead and in NW WI. Portions of NW WI could see up to around 2", as well.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Through the rest of this week and into the weekend, daily temperatures rising well above freezing are likely to get snow transformation and melt started once again across the Northland. The snowpack across much of north-central MN, the Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and southern tier of WI counties in our CWA is fairly minimal (less than 5" in depth and 0.5-1.5" of SWE) and seems likely to melt down to mostly bare ground by Saturday. The daily overnight return to below normal temperatures should help to make for a steady, controlled melt through Saturday morning across the entire area. This will cause some injection of life back into our area waterways, but is not expected to lead to any flooding issues.

Come Saturday, an extended period of above normal temperatures with highs and lows above freezing is expected to begin and continue through early Tuesday morning. This should kick off 24/7 snow melt. Areas of rain arrive into Sunday morning and several waves of rain cross the area through Monday evening. Current ensemble guidance shows most of the area along a line from Aitkin to Ely and southeast with a 50-90% chance of receiving an inch or more of rain in this period, with locally higher amounts of 2"+ possible in NW WI. Rates themselves are unlikely at this point to lead to classic overland flooding or flash flooding. Where this rain is combined with snowmelt there are areal and riverine flooding concerns. By this weekend, it seems most likely that the only areas with remaining snowpack would be those along the North and South Shores where snow depth is still 8-30" with 2-8" of SWE today. While some of that SWE is expected to melt out by Saturday, there will likely be plenty left by the time rain begins. Current probabilistic guidance shows the potential for several river forecast points to exceed their action or minor flood stages on the Knife, Nemadji, and Bad Rivers. There is a small chance that the Tyler Forks River may crest into its moderate flood stage which leads to impacts along Highway 169 northeast of Mellen. Along the North Shore onshore winds could lead to enhanced precipitation totals and the South Shore may be closer to the higher synoptic rainfall amounts - so both areas of remaining snowpack could also be under slightly higher amounts of rain. Interests along the North and South Shore should heed latest forecasts and be prepared for possible minor flooding early next week.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140- 146-147-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ141>145-148.