textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly hot and dry today through at least mid day Wednesday. Cooler near Lake Superior. Near critical fire weather is possible in northern MN.

- Gusty northeast winds at the head of Lake Superior today could lead to a high risk of rip currents for Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches.

- Chance for precipitation pushes across the region late Wednesday through Thursday and again on Friday. Non-severe thunderstorms are possible.

UPDATE

Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Only slight adjustments have been made since the previous forecast.

Mostly under high pressure today and tomorrow, conditions are expected to be largely dry and warm. Retreating showers over the Brainerd Lakes are could lead to some occasional sprinkles and light rain through this afternoon in that area. High clouds from that dissipating precipitation could keep temperatures somewhat tempered this afternoon, and have adjusted temperatures down for those areas expected to be under cloudy skies during the heat of the day.

Gusty northeast winds boosted by an afternoon lake breeze today will pick up waves at the head of Lake Superior, leading to a high risk of rip currents. A Beach Hazards Statement will likely be needed.

Very dry afternoon relative humidity and a light easterly breeze will lead to near critical fire weather conditions for portions of northern Minnesota this afternoon. Similar conditions are likely Tuesday.

Precipitation is still on track to move in late Wednesday and persist through Thursday. There is a lot of antecedent dry air that this rain will have to work through. With that, timing has shifted slightly later for the onset of these rain showers and thunderstorms. At this point, no severe storms are expected. There are marginal amounts of instability and bulk shear, so a couple stronger storms might be possible, particularly on Thursday. Another trailing upper level shortwave brings another push of precipitation into the Northland Friday. Mostly likely precipitation amounts from these disturbances looks to be around a couple tenths of an inch to a 0.5". There are few outlying models that show up to 0.75-1", which could be possible with more robust thunderstorms, especially if they track over the same area multiple times.

Well above normal temperatures return into the weekend. However, the upper level pattern agreement amongst models really breaks down and any precipitation chances are uncertain after Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Current Weather through Monday:

As has been the trend for several days, the weather is pretty dry and quiet out there. Relative humidity has fallen below 25 percent for much of northeast Minnesota where skies are mostly clear. Winds are pretty light out there, so fire weather conditions are not to red flag criteria, but near-critical fire weather conditions will persist through the afternoon and early evening.

Around the Brainerd Lakes, a ribbon of vorticity has been producing clouds and a few showers. This feature will very slowly move northeast tonight and into Monday, so scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or two will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes and east-southeast into parts of northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall amounts from all this should be pretty light, but localized amounts around or a bit above a tenth of an inch will be possible.

Near-Critical Fire Weather and Heat:

We will still be largely under the influence of high pressure to the east through about Tuesday night. With continued southerly flow, most places will see a similar weather pattern of warm to hot high temperatures with dry conditions. We can expect relative humidity to fall below 25 percent for many areas once again Monday and Tuesday, resulting in near-critical fire weather conditions. Winds will be a bit more blustery on Monday, but the strongest winds will be around Lake Superior and thus displaced from where the lowest humidity is expected. Therefore, red flag conditions are not expected in the next few days.

Pattern Change Wednesday:

A closed low that's expected to park approximately over Saskatchewan Monday and Tuesday will eventually move east and bring with it a cold front that will bring some more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms to the Northland. At this point, it doesn't look like instability will support severe weather, but some general thunderstorms will be possible. Most ensembles suggest rainfall amounts in the quarter to half inch range, but there will probably be some variability in amounts due to convection.

Dominant ridging will likely return Friday into Saturday, but there could be some warm-frontal showers and storms as southerly flow returns. Overall, it looks like a bit of a "dirty ridge" through the weekend and into early next week with chances for weak disturbances to pass through that could keep scattered rain chances going.

Temperature-wise, we are pretty firmly situated into a summertime pattern, so highs in the 80s are likely to be common for at least the next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the period with dry conditions across much of the region. There will be VFR height cloud cover around the Brainerd Lakes today, becoming clear tonight. Easterly winds will become gusty this afternoon in KDLH and KHIB, easing tonight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

East to northeast winds today should see a strengthening in the afternoon and early evening with a supporting lake breeze. Some gusts near 20 knots are possible through the day, especially at the head of the lake. Areas near the Twin Ports and Grand Marais are just on the cusp of needing a Small Craft Advisory this afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to issue one at this time. Expect calmer winds, but still with an afternoon lake breeze push, on Tuesday. Winds switch to come out of the south Wednesday ahead of a passing cold front Wednesday night, which could produce showers and thunderstorms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Conditions are expected to be largely dry and warm today and tomorrow. Retreating showers over the Brainerd Lakes are could lead to some occasional sprinkles and light rain through this afternoon in that area. Very dry afternoon relative humidity of 15-25% and a light easterly breeze will lead to near critical fire weather conditions for portions of northern Minnesota this afternoon. Similar conditions are likely Tuesday.

Precipitation is still on track to move in late Wednesday and persist through Thursday. There is a lot of antecedent dry air that this rain will have to work through. With that, timing has shifted slightly later for the onset of these rain showers and thunderstorms. At this point, no severe storms are expected. A couple stronger storms might be possible, particularly on Thursday. Another push of precipitation should arrive into the Northland Friday. Mostly likely precipitation amounts from these disturbances looks to be around a couple tenths of an inch to a 0.5". There are few outlying models that show up to 0.75-1", which could be possible with more robust thunderstorms, especially if they track over the same area multiple times.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...None.