textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms continue in north-central Minnesota through early this morning. Small hail and locally gusty winds are possible. Severe weather is not expected.

- Widespread dense fog lingers into this morning, especially near Lake Superior. - A cold front brings another round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous severe storms with all hazards are possible, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. Widespread rainfall in excess of at least 0.5" is likely with localized heavy rain possible that could lead to flash flooding.

- Hot temperatures are expected today and Wednesday when afternoon highs away from Lake Superior should be in the 80s to low 90s, with dew points in the 60s and 70s. A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon to 8 PM today and may be needed on Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

We expanded the Dense Fog Advisory into Pine County east to Sawyer County and to northern St. Louis County as dense fog continues to expand early this morning. Additional adjustments may be needed. Fog should gradually improve in the hours after sunrise this morning.

Northeast winds of 10-15 mph and waves around 2 ft could lead to a risk of rip currents for the beaches of the Twin Ports this evening. Confidence in the need for a Beach Hazard Statement was not high enough with this update, but will need to be monitored today.

UPDATE

Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Forecast remains on track for multiple rounds of storms tonight into Wednesday along with the threat for severe storms. The main threat tonight looks to be from damaging winds, especially for areas west of US53/I-35 in Minnesota. CAMs bring a large complex of storms into our western zones after midnight tonight with activity diminishing as it moves east into Wednesday morning. The evolution of this complex of storms will then factor in to the development of storms Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Clouds and lingering rainfall may suppress additional development, but any clearing will lead to favorable conditions for strong to severe storms. Forecast soundings show 2000-3000 J/kg with varying degrees of shear. Current evolution favors discrete cells at the onset with upscale growth as the event progresses. Large hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will all be possible. The greatest tornado threat looks to be south of a Brainerd to Grand Rapids to Two Harbors to Hurley line.

The other forecast concern for today, and to a lesser extent Wednesday, will be the very warm temperatures expected. Highs today will reach into the 80s and lower 90s across most of the region with dewpoints in the 60s. While this will only lead to heat indicies in the upper 80s and lower 90s, wet bulb globe temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s along with moderate Heat Risk values across our western and southern zones. Based on local research, this combination of WBGTs and Heat Risk would lead to Heat Advisory conditions, so have issued an advisory for these areas. Similar conditions will be possible on Wednesday, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, but lingering questions on cloud cover and lingering rain prevents any watch products for heat with this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Through this week, we will be under the influence of an upper level trough-ridge pattern pushing its way west to east across the CONUS.

TODAY:

A shortwave embedded within a stout ridge pushing over the Great Lakes has brought areas of rain showers and thunderstorms which should gradually move out of the area through the afternoon and evening. No severe storms are expected with this disturbance, and the area should see anywhere from 0.1-0.8" of rain, highest amounts towards the Brainerd Lakes and lowest in the MN Arrowhead. A few lucky folks might even get to measure over an inch on Tuesday morning. This evening, we might see a stronger thunderstorm or two redevelop in the Brainerd Lake and Iron Range area along a weak cold front pushing east. All precipitation activity should fizzle overnight into Tuesday morning. Expect widespread fog to develop from Lake Superior and push inland overnight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect beginning this evening around the lake, and may need to be expanded based on latest visibility trends. Fog should largely improve through Tuesday morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:

A strong upper level low and following troughing starts to move into our neck of the woods. The cold front associated with this low should traipse across the Dakotas on Tuesday, getting into north- central Minnesota in the evening to overnight hours. Severe storm potential along this front is boosted by anomalous buoyancy and shear, and a strong mid level jet. These storms are expected to be discrete at first in the Dakotas, morphing into a linear structure and accelerating into the Northland sometime between 1-5am Wednesday morning. There is the potential that this line could still be severe as it gets into our area, but the threat is conditional, due to the timing of the front coming in overnight, which will make for a battle between that good instability/shear and overnight inhibition. Main threats would be large hail and damaging winds.

Wednesday will see the cold front pushing smack across our area, buoyed by the same very unstable airmass that will affect the Dakotas the day before. This has the potential to lead to scattered to numerous severe storms in our area capable of producing all hazards as storms unzip along the cold front midday to early afternoon and then push east. There is some uncertainty with this setup, as the front continues to trend faster and lingering precipitation and convection Wednesday morning could make things messy. Wednesday should be a decent rainmaker, with a decent chance for a widespread 0.5"+. There could be some locally higher amounts of 1-2"+.

Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of any storms will be HOT as we find ourselves under ample WAA. Expect afternoon highs to be in the 80s to low 90s away from Lake Superior. Additionally, dew points in the 60s and 70s will make for a very sticky heat. Heat Advisories will likely Wednesday.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND:

Some additional wrap around showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, along with relatively cooler temperatures. We stay in a zonal flow pattern into the weekend, stuck between a Hudson Bay low to our north and central Plains moisture to our south. This could make for some scattered showers at time, but nothing significant is expected.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Seeing IFR to VLIFR conditions in fog and dense fog for most terminals aside from INL and only IFR ceilings at HYR. Fog and low stratus will lift through mid-morning, with VFR conditions returning by late morning and persisting through this afternoon. Another round of fog to dense fog and low stratus is then expected to develop during the evening and tonight near Lake Superior again. A line of showers and potentially strong to severe storms moves in from the west/southwest late tonight into early Wednesday morning, first impacts BRD and then spreading northeast. Strong, erratic winds and hail are possible, but were not mentioned in the TAFs for now. Storms will be weakening with northeast extent into Wednesday morning, as well. Southeast winds will remain light this morning, then increase starting this afternoon and evening, though the gustier winds of 20-25 kt will mainly this evening and tonight in areas inland from Lake Superior.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Light and variable winds this morning will become easterly by midday at 5 to 15 knots. The strongest winds are expected in the western arm of the lake into the Twin Ports during the afternoon and evening hours. Easterly winds will continue for tonight into Wednesday at around 5 to 15 knots. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight and again Wednesday afternoon with gusty winds and large hail expected along with heavy downpours. A front will move through late Wednesday with winds becoming southwesterly Wednesday night at 10 to 20 knots. Dense fog will also linger into mid to late morning. Uncertainty remains as to how long it will linger this morning and the Dense Fog Advisory made need to be extended.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 AM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Hot and dry conditions are expected today under partly to mostly sunny skies. Conditions will be humid, so that will keep afternoon RH values above 40%. Winds will be easterly to southeasterly at 5 to 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms arrive tonight and last into Wednesday morning with another round expected later on Wednesday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, especially the round later Wednesday. Most areas look to receive at least a quarter of an inch of rainfall with higher amounts to 0.50 to 1" possible across north-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin. More rainfall will be possible for Thursday before trending drier for the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ011-012- 019>021-037-038. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010-011-018-025-026-033>036-038. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>003- 006>008. Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ006>008. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 140>148-150. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142.