textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical to near-critical fire conditions continue this afternoon over much of the Northland.

- A few showers will be possible tonight (30-50% chance) far south with more widespread showers Monday night into Tuesday (30-50% chance).

- Cooler conditions prevail through the weekend before a warming trend takes over for next week. Highs reach the 70s and 80s for most by the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Weak low pressure was located just south of Winnipeg early this afternoon within a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft. Light radar returns were evident across northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, but very dry air near the surface was preventing any of this from reaching the ground. High clouds will continue to overspread the region this afternoon, but are not expected to limit mixing much with RH values falling below 25% over most of the Northland. These low RH values combined with breezy west to northwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph this afternoon will lead to critical to near-critical fire weather conditions over much of Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for southern Cass and Crow Wing counties with an SPS for near-critical fire weather conditions over much of the remainder of the Northland. Highs this afternoon will be in the middle 50s to upper 60s.

A shortwave embedded within a jet aloft will dive southeastward across the northern High Plains tonight into Minnesota. This will bring some low POPs for showers to our southern zones overnight before exiting shortly after sunrise. Only a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation is expected with most of that being lost to moistening the column so rain can reach the ground. Saturday then looks dry, breezy and slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Another weak shortwave in the cyclonic flow regime aloft will move across northwestern Ontario during the day on Saturday, but any precipitation associated with this looks to remain north of the international border.

Surface high pressure arrives for Sunday as cool cyclonic flow persists aloft. Highs will be slightly cooler in the middle 40s to middle 50s with northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph. Afternoon RH values may drop below 25% in some areas which will lead to some fire weather concerns, although winds are expected to be lighter.

As the high departs on Monday, southerly flow will increase on the backside of the low bringing warmer temperatures and a bit more moisture into the Upper Midwest. This warming trend is expected to continue through the week. Highs Monday will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s, but moisture will be slow to return which may lead to another day of very low RH values and potential fire weather concerns, albeit with light winds.

Monday night into Tuesday will see an area of low pressure move southeast from Manitoba into northwestern Ontario and drag a cold front through the Northland. This will lead to widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as it passes. There are some timing and spatial differences with this system which could impact what areas see rainfall and potentially not see rainfall. Highs Tuesday will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. There are a few more chances for rainfall over the latter half of the week, but the main story will be the increasing temperatures. Highs by Friday look to reach into the 70s and lower 80s with 60s near Lake Superior.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase this afternoon with gusts to around 20 knots before dropping off after sunset. Clouds increase overnight, especially south, as a weak system passes by. A few showers cannot be ruled out at BRD and HYR, but the system has been trending more to the south and there is considerable dry air near the surface that must first be overcome. Winds are expected to pick up once again by mid- morning Saturday with gusts to around 20 knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

No hazardous conditions are expected over the next 48 hours. Light southwesterly winds this afternoon will become northwesterly overnight and increase to 10 to 20 knots during the day Saturday, highest along the immediate North Shore. Winds will slowly become southwesterly by Sunday afternoon and decrease to 5 to 15 knots as high pressure moves in. Waves will remain under 2 feet through the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across much of northeastern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. West winds of 12-17 mph with gusts up to 25 mph will overlap with minimum relative humidity of 15-25%. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for southern Cass and Crow Wing Counties through early evening where the most critical conditions are expected. A band of light rainfall is mostly expected to stay south of Northland districts, but less than a tenth of an inch cannot be ruled out for the southern Brainerd Lakes to east-central MN districts late tonight into Saturday morning. However, very dry air near the surface may limit what actually reaches the ground. A wind shift to northwesterly will occur first late afternoon to day in far north-central Minnesota then through the evening and overnight hours southeastward. Gusty northwest winds 10 to 15 knots gusting to 25 knots occur Saturday. Another round of near- critical concerns is possible Sunday and Monday due to persistent low humidity.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CDT this evening for MNZ033-034. WI...None. MARINE...None.