textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A powerful and messy winter system is expected to bring heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, mixed precipitation, and strong winds to the Northland this evening to Thursday morning. Blizzard conditions are expected along the North Shore.

- Storm and Gale Warnings are posted for western Lake Superior from very strong easterly winds gusting to 55 knots.

- Secondary system Thursday night into Friday brings another round of light to maybe moderate snowfall to far eastern Minnesota and especially northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Satellite imagery shows increasing moisture being pulled into the Minnesota and Wisconsin state area aloft this afternoon as a powerful and complex winter storm is set to impact the Northland beginning this evening. That moisture will interact with an approaching and strengthening low pressure system moving through the Upper Midwest. Precipitation will start as rain or a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet across much of the area before transitioning to heavy, wet snow. This snow will have a high water content, making it very heavy and difficult to move. This type of snow sticks efficiently to trees and power lines, which is expected to combine with high winds to create a risk for power outages.

The greatest impacts will be felt along the North Shore of Lake Superior and into the Arrowhead. Here, the terrain will enhance snowfall rates, with the most intense periods expected tonight and Wednesday morning. In these areas, snowfall rates could reach 2 to 3 inches per hour. Combined with very strong easterly winds gusting between 50 and 60 mph, blizzard conditions will make travel very dangerous or impossible, especially along the Highway 61 corridor. Near whiteout conditions are also possible further inland across the Iron Range and the Twin Ports where winds will still be quite strong.

As the system slowly moves through on Wednesday, a dry slot is likely to pull through northwest Wisconsin and even into the Arrowhead. This setup leads to concerns for a temporary turnover from a wintry mix (northwest Wisconsin) to drizzle/freezing drizzle. Up in the Arrowhead this may also dampen snowfall for Wednesday afternoon and evening before more moisture wraps back around the low. Temperatures will remain relatively steady in the mid 20s to low 30s through Wednesday, keeping the precipitation type mostly wintry. By Thursday, the main system begins to pull away, but lingering snow showers will add light additional accumulations.

The largest headline changes for winter weather were to add in Southern Cass through Southern Aitkin Counties to Advisories for tonight's light freezing rain and ice accumulations and up to a few inches of snowfall for northern parts of those Counties Wednesday daytime. The other previously issued winter weather headlines remain largely unchanged beyond some end and beginning time changes (delay onset a few hours this evening and shorten up some zones in north-central Wisconsin for a sooner end time) with this afternoon forecast package.

A secondary system is looking to create another round of light accumulating snowfall to the region late Thursday night into Friday. Right now the low center track mainly favored northwest Wisconsin for a few inches of fresh snowfall late this work week. Guidance has trended further northward though over the last 24 hours on this late week system to produce even a 20-40% chance of light accumulating snowfall now for far eastern Minnesota. A more winter-like temperature forecast is shaping up for this weekend and into early next week. This cooler pattern could support a period of South Shore snowbelt lake effect snow showers for late weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 603 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail across the Northland, but are expected to degrade through the evening and tonight as a winter storm moves into the region. Rain/snow mix is expected at BRD and HYR along with periods of all rain. Snow will be the predominate weather at INL, HIB, and DLH. Snow will be wet and heavy in character and, coupled with the very strong easterly winds, will lead to MVFR to IFR or lower visibilities. Ceilings will eventually lower to MVFR then IFR as well. Any significant improvement is not expected until after this TAF period. Easterly winds will gust to 30 to 40 knots with gusts to 45 knots at DLH and HIB. A strong low level jet will also bring LLWS to most of the terminals this evening and tonight as well with a 65 to 75 jet above 2000 feet AGL.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Dangerous conditions are expected for Western Lake Superior. Gale Warnings are in effect now, transitioning to Storm Warnings for the North Shore at 9 PM this evening. East to northeast winds will gust to 55 knots with waves building to 7 to 11 feet, occasionally reaching 14 feet, through Wednesday afternoon. An extended period of Small Craft Advisories are expected after the Storm and Gale Warnings drop off as lingering elevated swell is forecast to last well into Thursday for ice free areas. The South Shore remains at Gale Warnings for this entire event. Heavy snow will severely reduce visibility to near zero at times.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for MNZ020-021. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight CST Wednesday night for MNZ010-011-018. Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for MNZ012. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Thursday for MNZ019-037. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for MNZ025-026-033>036. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for WIZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>144. Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>144. Blizzard Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday for LSZ142. Gale Warning until 10 PM CST Wednesday for LSZ145-146-148-150.