textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Toasty temperatures today as southwest winds push afternoon temperatures into the 50s for most locations. Light rain will be possible across northern MN Sunday afternoon and evening.

- More snow chances will arrive late Monday and linger into Wednesday as a baroclinic zone sets up over the Northland. Overall expecting light accumulations at this time with the probability of 4" around 20-30%.

- Potentially more impactful system for late Thursday into Friday as a strong low pressure moves from the Pacific northwest into the Great Lakes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

Current Conditions:

A clipper system is moving across central Ontario this morning providing some light echoes on radar across the Northland. Surface observations and web cameras indicate that this small wave of precipitation is not amounting to much and at its current pace will largely exit to the east before mid morning. Overall, minimal impact with northern MN seeing up to a dusting of snow as they wake up to start their Sunday morning.

Today/Tonight:

Through the day we will see ample warm air advection as another system approaches out of the Canadian Prairies. This systems warm front will arch through the region and we will see southwest winds push our high temperatures into the 50s with some 60s possible along our southern tier of counties. The next clipper dives through the Red River Valley and through northern MN Sunday evening. The better forcing and precipitation shield currently looks to be on the Canadian side but we still have a 20-30% chance of seeing some activity across our north. With such a strong warm nose in place and the warm temperatures expected this afternoon the primary precipitation type will be rain. The system quickly departs to the east before Monday sunrise.

Start of the work week:

The clipper for Sunday evening leaves early Monday morning with cooler air filtering in from the northwest. Surface high pressure will keep activity at bay for Monday with high temps in the 50s for the inland portions of NW WI but in the 30s across northern MN.

Our synoptic pattern becomes a little more complicated as we head into Tuesday. A vertically stacked low over Baja will send an upper level jet west to east over the Northern Plains with cross barrier flow leading to leeside cyclogenesis over the Rockies. Track of this low still remains uncertain and to add to the mess the 00Z suite of deterministic guidance is also wanting to generate a separate low over the Canadian Prairies. This pairing will at the very least lead to a baroclinic zone setting up over the Northland. System progression may be slow leading to a more prolonged duration of precipitation. The southern system looks to keep most of the warm air at bay leading to snow being the primary precipitation type. Some mesoscale forcing in the way of a 700mb FGEN band further adds to the uncertainty of the mid week system. QPF plumes largely favor the lower end of solutions, generally less then 0.2" but there are enough members closer to the 0.5" that its worth paying attention to. For now, we are looking at snow starting late Monday with chances lingering into Wednesday morning. Probability of 4" are around 20-30% for most of the region with the western counties being less then 20%.

Latter half of the week:

Quite an interesting set up that is starting to emerge in the Thursday - Friday timeframe. Ensembles are showing a strong low pressure traversing from the Pacific northwest towards the Great Lakes region. Low tracks still remain high variable this far out but early indications are largely taking the majority of the tracks through MN. Deterministic guidance shows a good amount of ingredients coming together with the divergent sector of an upper level jet overhead with favorable lift within the DGZ. Plus given the track of the low is from the Pacific northwest it stands to reason that it would carry better PWATs then the clippers we've seen this week. Still a ways out but definitely worth watching for as the trends over the last 24 hrs continue to go up. PoPs have gone from 30% to 60% with snow probabilities also increasing.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A quick-moving clipper system moving west to east across the region overnight will bring a brief period of light rain/snow to northeast Minnesota, but only affecting INL. Minimal to no snow accumulations expected. Have only included a tempo group of MVFR conditions in light snow. Gusty winds up to 30 kt and widespread low-level wind shear overnight, with the gusty surface winds persisting into the daytime for most sites at 18-25 kt. Low-level wind shear diminishes by mid morning. Another round of light VFR rain is possible late afternoon into tonight, mainly in north-central and northeastern Minnesota. Another round of LLWS is expected to accompany this precipitation, but surface winds may be strong enough to reduce the shear, and have only included it where winds will be strongest aloft.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 126 AM CST Sun Mar 8 2026

Southwesterly winds continue to impact western Lake Superior with gales up along the North Shore. These Gales will taper off later this morning. Winds speeds across the lake will briefly subside this evening but will ramp back up again overnight, however, not expecting gales. Hazards will be winds gusts up to 30 kts and wave heights of 2 to 4 ft. These conditions persist until Monday afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ140-141-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ142>146-148.