textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to heavy snow with occasional blizzard conditions will continue in northwest Wisconsin tonight, especially in Iron/Ashland counties.

- Cold weather is expected through Tuesday. Wind chills in the teens to 20s below zero are expected Monday morning.

- A quick-hitting system may bring an inch or two of snow for some places Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- A notable warmup back to spring weather is expected late-week with highs in the 40s to low 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Current Conditions: Well, it's snowing and blowing out there, though not at the intensity we were anticipating at this time yesterday for most places. The storm has taken more of a southerly track, keeping the big 20"+ snow reports down towards Wausau. Dry air has kept the Iron Range and north of the Brainerd Lakes dry today.

Headline Changes and Tonight's Forecast: We have seen some gusty winds out there and some occasional visibility below a mile, but generally we haven't see the widespread blizzard conditions we were expecting. Therefore, most Blizzard Warnings have been downgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. The only reason for keeping warnings instead of downgrading to advisories is that lake-effect snow has been persistent from Carlton county on east along the South Shore, and as winds continue to turn more northerly, the lake-effect is expected to persist and perhaps extend a bit further inland for a while this evening. Couple this with strong winds, and wintry conditions should prevail into the evening. Once the bulk of the lake-effect moves out of Carlton/Pine counties later this afternoon, we may be able to downgrade those areas to an advisory or even cancel altogether.

For now, with winds expected to further increase slightly in- tandem with snowfall rates increasing due to lake and terrain enhancement in Ashland/Iron counties, we will keep the Blizzard Warning going. Additional snowfall over there from around 6 to 12 inches is not out of the question along the Penokee ridge, though amounts and impacts will be less away from there. We will hold on to Price County for now as well with the possibility for more accumulating snow to make its way to the eastern and northern part of the county overnight, both lake-effect and synoptic, which will combine with the strong winds to reduce visibility.

Outside of northwest Wisconsin, the snow is expected to wrap up this evening with quickly improving conditions (though winds will remain gusty tonight, so there will probably be some areas of blowing snow).

North Shore High Winds Tonight: There is a ~70% probability of seeing wind gusts to around 60 mph around Grand Marais tonight. With such cold air streaming in from the northwest, there's enough confidence to upgrade the previous Wind Advisory to a High Wind Warning there. High winds will be most likely from about 2 AM to 10 AM, then expect winds to decrease gradually in the afternoon after that.

Monday-Tuesday Forecast - Wrapping up the storm and cold weather:

Moderate to heavy wraparound snow along the northwest side of the low-pressure center will keep the snow ongoing in the UP, and it may graze eastern Price/Iron counties during the morning, combining with some lingering lake-enhancement in Ashland/Iron counties. Lake-effect is likely to persist into Monday afternoon and night for Iron and possibly Ashland counties with plenty of cold air advection, though drier air moving in should dramatically reduce the intensity to light snow showers.

High pressure passing by to the south Monday night with pretty strong cold air advection will create favorable conditions for a cold Monday morning. Wind chills in the teens to 20s below zero are expected Monday morning with blustery winds persisting, then temperatures below zero and wind chills in the teens below zero Tuesday morning.

Tuesday clipper: As high pressure departs on Tuesday, a quick clipper is expected to pass through and bring around an inch or two of snow to parts of the Northland. This will be most likely around the Brainerd Lakes as of now, and timing is likely to be during the afternoon and evening.

Mid to late week warmup: Strong ridging across the western CONUS will infiltrate the Northland with warm southwesterly flow developing on Wednesday post-clipper. It's looking like a relatively toasty end to the week with highs in the 40s and even some 50s. We will still see lows below freezing, so there will be a freeze/thaw cycle and plenty of frozen surfaces at night and during the morning. We could have some more weak clippers Friday and into the weekend riding along the ridge, which could be in the form of light rain or snow depending on what time of day/night the precipitation passes through.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Snow and blowing snow associated with a strong winter storm will continue to affect some terminals into tonight. Conditions will be the worst at HYR with predominantly MVFR conditions and occasionally IFR visibilities in heavier snow showers as lake- effect streamers from Lake Superior are expected to move in later this afternoon and evening for several hours. Visibility is expected to gradually improve there later tonight, though ceilings are expected to remain MVFR. At BRD/DLH, light snow and blowing snow is expected to linger into the afternoon with gradually improving visibility to VFR this evening. At all terminals, cold air advection behind the departing storm may result in some low clouds and MVFR ceilings this evening into tonight, though confidence isn't high on the coverage or exact timing of it. Winds are expected to be blustery through the period at all terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 327 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Gales and heavy freezing spray are expected into Monday, along with storm force winds from around Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Wave heights over 10 ft are expected into Monday as well, especially along the South Shore. Winds will gradually decrease Monday night, and Small Craft Advisories will be needed. Winds will become lighter on Tuesday as high pressure passes by to the south. Expect snow to continue now through Monday as well, especially along the South Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ020. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for MNZ020-021. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MNZ025- 033>036. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for MNZ038. WI...Blizzard Warning until 4 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-006-007. Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ002-008-009. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>142-147-148-150. Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142. Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142-147-148-150. Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142. Gale Warning until noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146.