textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures and mainly dry for the weekend. - Isolated chance for showers Saturday afternoon along the North Shore. Afterwards the next chance for showers and storms is late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

This weekend:

Surface low pressure is moving well off to the SE this morning as it exits IA. Over in our neck of the woods we have a trailing cold front sliding across the region. Behind this front we can see clearing skies and northerly winds starting to filter in from Canada. Through the day some diurnally driven cumulus will form with a larger cluster likely over the Arrowhead. Aided by some orographic lift and a shortwave moving aloft this could spawn some isolated showers in the afternoon. This activity will quickly taper off after sunset.

Temperatures for the weekend will be much milder with highs close to seasonal averages around upper 70s to low 80s. On shore flow during the overnight period will also help to dip overnight lows into the 50s.

Monday/Tuesday:

High pressure will be shunted off to the east as our next weather system begins its approach on Monday. Southerly flow out ahead of this system will lead to warming temperatures with highs climbing into the 80s. Dew points will also climb back into the mid and upper 60s across out west. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance highlights a deep upper level low over central Canada with a strong upper level jet cruising from the Northern Rockies into this system. Farther south, an additional low pressure may develop in lee of the Rockies on Monday but our main focus will be on the cold front as it marches across the Northern Plains. Isentropic lift across the region ahead of the cold front could lead to some isolated showers and storms Monday afternoon, but the best forcing associated with the front arrives Monday evening. Convective initiation will likely be to our west so we will have to monitor the line as it advances into our region. Instability may be a bit limited based on how cloud cover and afternoon storms develop. Additionally, the better shear will be tied to along the front. For now, the severe risk looks marginal with most of the NWP hatching out a 15% chance of severe in our NW which aligns well with what SPC has outlined.

The front will march through the region on Tuesday with rain and scattered thunderstorms expected. Convective parameter space at this time does not look favorable for severe weather on Tuesday. Rain chances taper off in the evening and with the passage of the front the region can expect temperatures to fall back into the 70s.

Mid week:

High pressure over the region for Wednesday with temperatures staying in the 70s. Temperatures will slowly increase through the end of the work week with intermittent rain chances possible as the upper level pattern turns more zonal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Little bit of fog over in NW WI this morning will quickly burn off within the first hour or two of the forecast. Quiet weather today with some hazy skies aloft due to smoke. Diurnal cumulus is expected to develop in the afternoon with the highest concentration over the Arrowhead where a few isolated showers are possible. Light northerly winds will taper off this evening with a chance of fog developing tomorrow morning at BRD/HYR.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 948 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Gusty east to northeast winds are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon as a notable lake breeze moves onshore and well- inland. A few gusts approach the 25 knots into the southwest arm and near Saxon Harbor regions of western waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these conditions as the waves also forecast to build to 2 to 3 feet. A time period to watch will be the Saturday early morning time period with a few high-res guidance models progging this time period for a 1-2 hour wind for gusty conditions too. The Small Craft Advisory timing may well have to be adjusted if confidence increases on this scenario actually occurring tomorrow morning.

Otherwise, expect east to northeast winds again Sunday which will also have to be monitored for potential Advisory needs in time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Low fire weather concerns for the weekend. Light northerly winds today with Min RHs dropping into the 40s. Areas that get abundant sunshine today could drop to around 35%. Isolated showers will be possible over the North Shore and the Arrowhead this afternoon. Winds will turn back out of the south. Favorable onshore flow from Lake Superior will be in play this afternoon and overnight. Next best chance for rain will be Monday evening through Tuesday as a cold front marches in from the west.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ144-145-148-150.