textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected for early week. Exception could be inland northwest Wisconsin for light rain Tuesday night.

- Rain chances return Thursday and last into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Surface low pressure over far northern Ontario and a mid-level supporting closed low over central Manitoba early this morning is moving a cold front over the Upper Great Lakes presently. A wind shift to westerly is occurring and these gusty winds will last into the daylight hours today. Expect westerly winds to gust 20 to 25 mph along and north of US Hwy 2 in northwest Wisconsin and across most of northern Minnesota this morning. Winds will then decrease from south to north this afternoon. These westerly wind gusts to 20 mph last into the early overnight hours for the Borderlands and especially Arrowhead. Temperatures tonight are very likely to dip into the mid-20s north of MN 200, but remain in the mid to upper-30s where those overnight winds keep the airmass mixed in the Arrowhead and further south of MN 210. Slightly warmer, but still just below freezing temperatures are favored then over northwest Wisconsin tonight outside of the Bayfield Peninsula.

High pressure sets up to create largely no rainfall chances Today through Wednesday. The exception may be a band of light rainfall in central Minnesota to west- central Wisconsin Tuesday night that may create a few scattered rain showers along and south of WI/MN Hwy 70 over inland northwest Wisconsin.

Seasonable temperatures through Wednesday yields to the next warming period Thursday and Friday. This late work week period will be accompanied by a moisture surge as a deep western US trough moves eastward and a surface low pressure system forms and deepens over the northern US Plains. As a result, rainfall chances build back into the Northland from southwest to northeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The first band of rainfall moves through Thursday, with additional off-and-on rain bands possible lasting into the weekend as the progged then stacked surface to mid-level low pressure sits over the ND/MN/MB border region Friday and Saturday. This setup may even last into Sunday with wrap-around widely scattered rain showers being more so favored at that point and temperatures being near normal for mid-October.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

MVFR ceilings will persist along and north of the Iron Range today, primarily limited though to the Borderlands. Gusty westerly winds will be most noticeable along and north of US Hwy 2 in the Northland through mid-afternoon Monday and then taper into the late afternoon hours.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Southwest winds will gust to 25 knots over much of the western waters early this morning before slowly decreasing in speed for most areas into mid-day. Segmented Small Craft Advisories will slowly drop off in two different sets today as a result. After the residual wave heights come down last offshore of Grand Marais to Grand Portage this evening, light winds and calm seas are forecast for Tuesday under high pressure...these conditions even look favorable for Wednesday too.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 141>145-148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140- 146-147-150.