textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold tonight with mainly dry conditions.

- Low chances for snow Wednesday with near normal temperatures.

- Rain, snow, and rain/snow mix possible Wednesday night and Thursday as temperatures warm above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

High pressure was centered over central Manitoba and extended into the Red River Valley of the North, Minnesota and Iowa this afternoon. Lingering stratus across northeastern Minnesota was slowly eroding and bringing an end to flurries. Dry conditions will prevail overnight aside from some lingering flurries or light snow showers across northern Iron County with lake-effect. Lows tonight will drop into the teens and single digits below zero and may trend a few degrees in either direction depending on cloud cover.

High pressure will drift southeastward across the Upper Midwest for Tuesday bringing dry conditions and light winds. Highs will again be in the teens above zero with overnight lows in the single digits above and below zero. As the high moves to the southeast Tuesday night, midlevel ridging will build into the Northern Plains and begin to shift into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A weak shortwave will slide to the south out of Canada ahead of this ridge and may squeeze out a few snow showers or flurries across mainly our western zones Wednesday morning into early afternoon. Little to no accumulation is expected with this activity. Warmer air will move in through the day in association with the ridge axis allowing temperatures to reach near normal levels in the upper teens and lower 20s.

Weak high pressure then quickly moves through Wednesday afternoon and evening before a clipper system begins to approach Thursday. The parent low will remain well to the north across southern Hudson Bay with a warm front moving through the Northland on Thursday. This will bring chances for snow initially Thursday morning before transitioning to rain, snow, and a rain/snow mix during the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 30s. Rain/snow mix and snow will then continue into Thursday night as the cold front moves through. Latest model trends have reduced the risk of freezing rain with the NBM probs less than 5% across the Northland. Colder air arrives Friday behind the cold front with highs in the teens and 20s. High pressure will keep dry conditions in place for Saturday before snow chances return to end the weekend. Warmer air will creep in as well late weekend with some 30s possible in southern areas by Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Lingering MVFR stratus over the Arrowhead is showing signs of eroding this evening with lake effect clouds still firmly in place over the South Shore. Across the terminals we have VFR conditions. Models are quite frankly all over the place for cloud cover and ceilings for this evening and tomorrow. This set of TAFs maintains the VFR conditions through the period. Surface high pressure looks to bring a lot of dry air with it but we can't fully dismiss some low stratus developing later tonight into tomorrow morning. However, the probabilities overall seem low (less then 30%).

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 344 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

No marine concerns are expected over the next 48 hours. Northwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots will diminish overnight with winds at 10 knots or less into Wednesday night. Southwesterly winds then increase Thursday with gusts to around 20 knots and may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.