textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The next round of scattered showers and thunderstorms begins Sunday. Widespread rainfall is forecast into Monday night ending Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of severe weather for northern Minnesota Sunday and Monday, with more widespread potential on Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

- Dense fog is forecast tonight along the South Shore.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

For the rest of the day, low stratus and persistent sky cover will remain entrenched across much of the Northland, except for areas of north-central Minnesota and inland northwest Wisconsin where some clearing will continue this afternoon. Dangerous rip currents will continue to impact the beaches of the Twin Ports into this evening. Heading into tonight, lingering moisture within northeast onshore flow is forecast to create dense fog along the South Shore, where Dense Fog Advisories have been issued.

Saturday will start off foggy along the South Shore and cloudy for many, but conditions should gradually improve into the midday hours. A second day of dangerous rip currents is possible again Saturday for the beaches of the Twin Ports, and another Beach Hazards Statement is likely to be needed. Temperatures will warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s as transient ridging builds into the region.

The break in active weather ends very early Sunday morning as thunderstorms return then for the rest of the Holiday weekend. As instability surges into the region, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. This environment will also be characterized by a very moist airmass, bringing the threat of heavy rainfall alongside any severe hazards. If it can form, low confidence right now, severe weather would mainly be limited to north- central Minnesota and the Borderlands Sunday afternoon to evening before quickly decreasing environmental favorability into northeast Minnesota.

Widespread light to moderate wetting rainfall is forecast for Labor Day Monday, especially from the afternoon through Tuesday morning as a dynamic low pressure system approaches. This would be another day of low-end severe weather chances for severe weather potentially in northern Minnesota, but much lesser favorability into northwest Wisconsin.

By Tuesday afternoon though, the more likely severe weather chances for the region, cross over the entire Northland and could be a day to watch given the more notable forcing combining with a highly moist atmosphere. The instability though appears to be a narrow corridor that will have to line up with daytime heating to erode any mid-level capping.

Gale force wind gusts from easterly winds will impact the North Shore on Monday, reaching up to 40 mph. As the system moves northeastward, winds will shift to southerly for the coastal North Shore near and just offshore of the Grand Portage area, where gusts to 40 mph are possible again on Tuesday.

Expect a third wind shift and even stronger westerly winds behind a cold frontal passage on Wednesday morning. Gusts of 30 mph are forecast for land areas on Wednesday, with Lake Superior waters exceeding 40 mph. Gale Watches may be needed in time for the coastal nearshore waters. After this wet and windy early to mid next week time period, only very limited rain shower coverage is expected to end next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

LIFR to MVFR conditions are expected for most of the regional terminals today given lingering stratus cover. The exception is possible clearing later this afternoon for the Brainerd Lakes and inland northwest Wisconsin. A return of dense fog is possible again tonight, especially for those near the Lake Superior shorelines. Easterly winds continue. Skies clear towards the very later end of this TAF period at most terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 133 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior due to northeast winds gusting to 30 knots and elevated waves of 2 to 4 feet. Winds will decrease slightly on Saturday, but active weather returns Sunday into early next week. Easterly gale force gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected, possibly up to 35 knots are along the North Shore on Monday. Winds shift southerly near Grand Portage on Tuesday with 30-35 knot gusts, then become westerly by Wednesday morning with gusts exceeding 40 knots across the lake. Gale Watches will likely be needed for at least one day early to mid next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 50 percent through the weekend as abundant moisture stays in place. East to southeast winds will generally remain under 15 mph through Saturday. Widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday. Winds will increase significantly next week, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph on land starting Monday and peaking on Wednesday behind a cold front. Expect easterly winds Monday to shift to southerly Tuesday with a secondary wind shift to westerly on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ002>004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>145- 150.