textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Another strong low pressure will move across the Midwest late Saturday through Sunday leading to heavy snow in the Northland.

- Strong winds with this system may lead to white out of blizzard conditions in the Twin Ports and South Shore

- Cold temperatures Monday morning with wind chills of -20F.

- Warmer temperatures on Wednesday and through the end of the work week with off and on precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current Conditions:

Quiet weather to start the weekend as high pressure is over the region. Through the day clouds will be increasing and our highs in the afternoon will be hovering around freezing for most the region with slightly warmer temperatures over NW WI. As we head into the evening hours snow is expected to start flying once again.

Snow Storm Saturday Night into Sunday:

Setup:

A low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies and will advance across the Central Plains through Sunday. Largely out of WY this low is already forming in a region that is being supplied with Pacific Northwest moisture as evident in the advected layer precipitable water. With the low strengthening as an upper level trough digs in behind the system it will also be able to draw on some gulf moisture. Having been supplied by two moisture sources this system is expected to carry an impressive amount of PWATs with EFIs of 0.8 to 0.9 across central MN into NW WI.

There is high agreement on the low track at this point amongst the ensemble families which takes the low through IA and towards southern Lake Michigan on Sunday. This path will allow for a large deformation zone to set up north of the low and impact our region. This zone will have strong forcing supported by a large 700mb FGEN band which will lead to heavy snowfall rates.

Impacts:

Heavy snow is a given whenever we end up dealing with a deformation zone moving through the region. NW WI will see the burnt of the action as the low is expected to track NE after moving towards Lake Michigan which will give the area the longer residency time within the zone. With this system being able to tap into two different moisture sources we are getting some higher QPF then we typically expect with a winter storm. An interesting tidbit about higher QPF is that it often leads to lower SLRs even in strongly forced storms. The compaction of the snow due to more water loading has led to us capping the SLRs closer to 15:1. Another factor that will need to be considered is the strong winds associated with this system. This can lead to dendrites being fractured and therefore again lowering SLRs potential. But even with these subtle changes that can limit snowfall, with such a high QPF we are looking at 70-90% chances of at least of foot of snow for portions of NW WI.

While NW WI is going to see the majority of the snow the rest of the region is not in the clear. The Brainerd Lakes Region will also spend some time in the deformation zone and has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. There will be a Canadian high pressure to the north providing some dry air which will help lead to a sharp gradient across the north where snow totals quickly scale down.

Wind will also be playing a major role in this system. The slow moving nature of the system will lead to a prolonged period of northeasterlies streaming down Lake Superior. This set up is favorable for a convergent band to develop and be sustained for an extended period. If a band does form it will act like a fire hose for a small location where snow totals will greatly exceed the surrounding neighborhoods. At this time that band could impact anywhere from Silver Bay down through the Twin Ports region.

Blizzard conditions also can't be fully ruled out at this time as well. As previously mentioned we will have prolonged period of strong winds whipping across Lake Superior that will breach through into the land. With higher snowfall rates, white out conditions may be possible and an upgrade to Blizzard Warnings may be needed for the Twin Ports and portions of the South Shore.

Monday/Tuesday:

Our winter system will still be slowly exiting to the east on Monday with quite a bit of wrap around moisture lingering over the region. Snowfall rates will be much lower at this time but we will see some lingering snow, especially on the South Shore thanks to lake effect. As the low pulls away frigid air filters in from the north once again with 850 temps dropping to -23C. With the wind currently in place our wind chills on Monday morning may be around -20F. Even with sky cover gradually clearing through the day high temps will struggle to get out of the teens.

The colder air mass start to depart on Tuesday as a warm front moves in from the west. This warm front will bring some light snow Tuesday afternoon with chances tapering off Wednesday morning. Not a lot of moisture to work with for this boundary with snow totals likely being around 1"

Mid week:

After the passage of the warm front we will see an increase in temperatures with highs climbing into the 40s to finish out the work week. A heat dome over the desert southwest will keep our pattern active as northwest meridional flow will still send multiple shortwaves over the region. This may lead to off and on precipitation chances. No signals for any major systems at this time though, just small glancing shots of light rain or snow depending on the time of day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions expected much of the TAF. Winds less than 10kts overnight will turn to the east/southeast Saturday ahead of the next storm system. That system arrives Saturday evening, with light snow and decreasing cigs arriving at BRD and HYR after 15/00Z. Expect MVFR cigs and reduced vis, with conditions deteriorating beyond this forecast period as snowfall becomes moderate to heavy.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A strong low pressure system will be moving across the Midwest late Saturday through Sunday and will lead to a prolonged period of gales across Lake Superior. There is a 30% chances of seeing storm force winds up near Grand Portage early Monday morning as the winds turn more northerly. Gales will eventually subside west to east late Monday but Small Craft Advisories will likely need to follow them for a time as both winds and waves subside.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ020. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ025-035. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ033-034-036. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ037. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for MNZ038. WI...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-006-007. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ002-008-009. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140- 141. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ142. Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142- 147-148-150. Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146.