textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy northwest winds with falling temperatures today.

- Lows tonight will drop into the single digits and low teens below zero with wind chills as cold as -20 to -25.

- Temperatures warm to end the week before another chance for light snow followed by more cold air arrive this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low pressure was analyzed over western Lake Superior early this morning with a cold front extending back into far northwestern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and southern South Dakota. The heaviest snow showers associated with the cold front were mainly south and east of the Northland with only light flurries remaining. Winds were picking up from the northwest as colder air was starting to pour into the area. Highs have already likely occurred for many areas this morning with temperatures slowly falling or heading nearly steady for the remainder of the day. An uptick of a few degrees is possible, but with the winds, it won't be noticeable. Some lake effect snowfall may linger into this evening across Iron County and perhaps off Rainy Lake and Kabetogama Lake. Additional accumulations of an inch or two will be possible. However, it is unknown how much ice has formed on Rainy and Kabetogama lakes. SARRIS data from NOHRSC shows mainly open water on both lakes, but also shows Red Lake iced over. If there is more ice than the SARRIS data shows, snowfall accumulations over northern St. Louis County will trend a bit lower. Dry air will also be working in near the surface, so that could further hamper lake-effect snow chances as well.

Lows tonight will fall into the single digits and low teens below zero. Temperatures have trended slightly warmer for tonight, which is also favored by the bias corrected guidance. Cloud cover looks to be a bit less than previously forecast, so better radiational cooling conditions may allow lows to fall a few degrees cooler. Winds will be light, which will limit wind chills, but they will also be turning southwesterly as warm air advection arrives heading towards daybreak. This may also limit cooling right when the coldest temperatures of the night traditionally occur. All that said, apparent temperatures will fall to as cold as -20 to -25F below zero. This is above cold headline criteria across our northeastern Minnesota zones, but there are a few pockets of -25F in our northwestern Wisconsin zones which is right at criteria. Given the limited coverage of -25F apparent temperatures, will hold off on any headlines at this point.

Southerly flow Thursday will bring warming temperatures to the region ahead of our next clipper that will move through during the Thursday night into Friday time frame. Light snow showers will be possible during this time, but any accumulations will be minor. Highs Thursday will be in the teens with 20s for Friday. A second cold front will follow for Friday night into Saturday morning with another chance for light snow showers, but will be followed by another shot of cold air. This will push highs back into the high single digits and teens for the weekend with lows falling into the single digits above and below zero. A northwest flow regime will remain in place heading into the new week with periodic clippers moving through with light snow chances. Temperatures do look to warm into the 20s for highs by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR conditions prevail across the region early this morning as a clipper moves through. A few locations in northwest Wisconsin are seeing IFR conditions due to heavier snow showers. Snow showers will gradually end this morning with VSBYs returning to VFR. Ceilings will be slower to improve with MVFR conditions prevailing through much of the period. Any categorical ceiling improvements won't arrive until late afternoon or evening. Winds will be breezy this morning and afternoon from the northwest with gusts to 20 to 25 knots possible as cold air moves in.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Northwesterly winds will gust to 25 to 30 knots today into tonight across all of western Lake Superior. This will lead to waves of 5 to 7 feet across the Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds will slowly diminish late tonight into Thursday morning before backing southwesterly and increasing ahead of our next clipper. Winds will gust to 25 to 35 knots with gales to 40 knots possible along parts of the North Shore and Outer Apostle Islands were a Gale Watch has been issued. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect elsewhere. A cold front will move through late Thursday night into Friday morning with winds turning northwesterly in its wake. Speeds will then decrease Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ121-145>148. Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for LSZ140>144- 150. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for LSZ140>144-150.