textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to heavy snow amounts around 3 to 8 inches are expected in northwest Wisconsin and locally along the I-35 corridor in far eastern Minnesota tonight into Wed AM.

- A strong clipper system is expected Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Expect accumulating snow, strong winds, and blowing snow.

- Another strong storm may affect parts of the Northland over the weekend.

- A diurnal freeze/thaw will likely occur through late week and then much of the area may fall below freezing for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Clouds abound this afternoon, unless you're up in International Falls where the sun should be peeking through. Northeast flow has kept some lake-effect flurries persistent today, though coverage has decreased. Being this late in the season, there isn't much instability to work with to have much for impactful lake-effect without any ongoing synoptic snow.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY SYSTEM: Going into late this afternoon and evening, we'll have another snow-making system impact parts of the Northland. Initially, it looks like we should have an area of mid-level frontogenesis kick off some banded snow over parts of northwest Wisconsin. This frontogenesis will be fairly transient, and will eventually weaken and blend in with broader synoptic lift from an upper- level trough. With this, forecast snow amounts have increased a bit over northwest Wisconsin such that some low-end warning criteria amounts in the 6-8" range are possible for parts of Price/Iron counties, and possibly locally in central Ashland county as well with some lingering northwest flow on Wednesday enhancing amounts a bit there. Headline decisions were a little tricky in the Sawyer/Ashland/Iron/Price county areas since expected snowfall amounts really hover around the 6" warning threshold. Some areas within the warning may see a little less than 6" and some areas in adjacent advisories could see localized 6-7" amounts through Wednesday morning. Advisories have been expanded slightly west to include all of northwest Wisconsin as well given broad synoptic lift tonight that should support some widespread 2-4"+ amounts across northwest Wisconsin. All-in-all, a high-end advisory / low-end warning snow event tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will be a little breezy, gusting to 20 mph, but blowing snow is not expected to be a big concern.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY SYSTEM: As snow moves out gradually on Wednesday, we can expect a break in active weather until a very potent clipper system passes through late Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Models are coming into better agreement that this will deepen pretty rapidly in our vicinity, bringing strong winds and the potential for moderate to heavy snowfall. There are still track differences, and the path the low takes could have pretty noteworthy implications on impacts. A more northerly track that brings the low center roughly over Duluth would pin the warm/moist conveyor belt over the Arrowhead, leading to a Goldilocks combination of synoptically-forced snow along with orographic/lake enhancement. In this setup, 6"+ snow amounts would be likely. If the low tracks further south, we should still see some lake/terrain enhancement along the North Shore, but with the best synoptic forcing a bit further south, leading to more broad coverage of moderate snowfall accumulations. Winds should be very strong with this system away from the low center, so we can expect to see some blowing/drifting snow as well. A warm nose could bring a bit of mixed precipitation to east- central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Overall, this one is looking like a solid advisory-level event and possibly warning- level event for some places, with the North Shore having the highest probability (to around 50%) for seeing some 6"+ snow amounts. The clipper is expected to exit pretty quickly to the east midday Friday.

WEEKEND SYSTEM: Another potent low pressure system could affect parts of the region over the weekend. A southerly track is favored with this one currently, which would bring more noteworthy accumulating snow potential down towards the Twin Cities. With that said, there's still plenty of opportunity for this storm to shift a bit further north and affect the Northland more, or shift further south and leave us with minimal impacts. A fgen snow band will be possible somewhere in MN/WI, but where exactly this could develop is still unknown. Stay tuned for more information on this one as the exact track of the low becomes more certain over the next several days. Confidence is high that there will be a storm, but low on where exactly the worst impacts will be.

OTHER WEATHER NUGGETS: The main impactful weather systems in the next week have been discussed above. In-between those, there will be a few breaks where we may even see some sunshine. Notably, Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. We can expect some above- freezing daytime temperatures through the week, especially when the sun shines. This will lead to some melting of snow and refreezing overnight. After the weekend system, it's looking like we could see a few days of colder weather with highs remaining below freezing into early next week. The freeze-thaw cycle may lead to some slick surfaces, especially at night and early morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A wave of snowfall continues to move across the north central MN into NW WI this morning providing light to moderate snowfall rates. Ceilings range from MVFR/IFR with lower visibilities at times embedded with the falling snow. Conditions will improve west to east through the morning as the system departs. VFR conditions with mostly clear skies this afternoon. Winds will also shift to out of the northwest as the system departs.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Breezy conditions are expected with northeast winds into this evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the head of the lake and over to the South Shore through this evening for gusty winds to 25 kt, but have been extended into Wednesday morning for lingering wave heights greater than 4 ft, especially for the Outer Apostle Islands and towards Saxon Harbor. Winds become lighter through Thursday afternoon when another clipper system moves in. Strong winds are expected with this clipper. Conditions are expected to be hazardous for small craft for all nearshore waters into Friday morning, and some gales are possible for parts of the North Shore Thursday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ038. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ001-002-006>008. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ003- 004-009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT early this morning for LSZ142>147. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150.