textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and sunny conditions this afternoon and Monday, but 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday.

- Elevated fire danger this afternoon due to very dry air, especially in northwest Wisconsin.

- A weak system is trending more south on Tuesday leaving us dry.

- A more active pattern develops late this upcoming week, but the potential for large, impactful low pressure systems remains low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure will bring clear skies and dry conditions across the Northland this afternoon and continuing into Monday. It will feel cooler than it has recently, with high temperatures expected to be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Northwest winds will ease throughout the afternoon and become light tonight. The main concern for this afternoon is the increased fire danger. Conditions are very dry, and humidity levels could drop into the 20 to 25 percent range this afternoon. This is especially true for the Pine Barrens in northwest Wisconsin, so please use caution with any activities that could start a fire.

Quiet weather continues for most of Monday, though clouds will begin to increase across the southern half of our region during the afternoon. We are tracking a weather system that is expected to move across the Midwest on Monday evening, but forecast models show it passing well to our south. This system will likely just act to increase clouds with no accumulating precipitation here, though areas to our south toward the Twin Cities may see a light slushy coating.

After that system moves by, the weather pattern looks to become more active late in the week. Our next best chance for widespread precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday as a fast-moving Alberta Clipper passes through the area. There is still some uncertainty about what kind of precipitation to expect, as temperatures will be hovering right around the freezing mark. Model consensus suggests more rain than snow though the Arrowhead and far north-central Minnesota may see more flakes mix in. We are also monitoring a larger storm system late in the week, but it currently looks like it will also stay south of our area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

High pressure over the area will keep VFR conditions and light winds persisting through the end of the TAF period. Some VFR low clouds with bases around 5000 ft are possible at BRD Monday afternoon and evening as a low pressure system passes south of the area, but no impacts are expected as weather stays dry.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Northwest winds will remain gusty over western Lake Superior this afternoon, creating hazardous conditions for small craft. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all nearshore waters. These advisories continue into this evening for the Minnesota North Shore from Grand Portage to Taconite Harbor and for the Wisconsin shore from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor. Advisories for the remaining zones are expected to end this evening. Winds and waves will diminish tonight as high pressure moves over the region. Quiet marine conditions are then expected on Monday with winds at 10 knots or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.