textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Northeast winds will lead to potentially hazardous swimming conditions again today. Rip current risk is "Moderate" as of this morning.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions continue through the majority of the forecast period.

- Record to near-record heat Friday. A Heat Advisory may be needed near the Canadian border.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Synopsis:

A complex split-flow pattern over the North American continent was evident on GOES-East water vapor imagery early this morning. A pseudo-Rex block was over the western half of the continent comprised of a cutoff low over the CA/NV border and a negatively tilted ridge from the Gulf Coast to the northern Canadian Prairie Provinces. A nearly positively tilted longwave trough was over Canadian Maritimes and New England. The northern stream flow had the appearance of an Omega Block with troughs over the northeast Pacific and the trough over the eastern quarter of the continent. This pattern will remain in place while slowly propagating eastward. The upper-level ridge will amplify toward the Arctic by 00Z Sunday. Surface high pressure will drift south into the Ohio Valley by early Friday morning. A backdoor cool front is forecast to propagate westward over far northern Minnesota Saturday. Additional areas of high pressure will drift through the Great Lakes region through middle to late next week.

Today and Friday:

High pressure nearby will provide quiet conditions today. Northeast winds over western Lake Superior will create a moderate to high risk of rip currents today. Wind and waves yesterday were not as high as expected and think today may be similar. Thus we will hold off on a Beach Hazards Statement for the Twin Ports. Day shift will be able to re-evaluate if winds and waves are trending higher than forecast. A prominent lake breeze is forecast again today which will set up a temperature gradient between central and north-central Minnesota to west- central Wisconsin and areas closer to Lake Superior. Highs today will reach the upper 60s to low 70s near the water and the low to upper 80s well inland. Winds will generally be from the east or southeast ahead of the lake breeze and will turn to be from the lake in the wake of the lake breeze.

Ahead of the lake breeze, deep mixing is expected which will push afternoon RH values into the 20-35% range. Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast for portions of far northeast Minnesota. RH values may drop below 25% behind the lake breeze after an initial increase in RH as the boundary passes. Please refer to the Special Weather Statement for additional details and areas affected.

Surface high pressure drifts farther south on Friday with slightly stronger southerly return flow forecast. Temperatures will trend warmer with record to near-record highs expected. See the CLIMATE section below for additional details. The stronger southerly flow should keep the lake breeze confined to the North Shore and immediate South Shore until late afternoon or early evening. Highs will range from the upper 70s near Lake Superior to the upper 80s and low 90s farther inland. A Heat Advisory may be needed near the Canadian border where the combination of temperatures and moisture pushes Heat Risk and and WBGT values above critical thresholds.

While theta-e advection will bring additional moisture into the Northland, low RH values are forecast over the entire area with minimum values of 20-30%. Portions of the North Shore and inland Arrowhead where the lake breeze will limit mixing will see slightly higher RH values of 30-40%.

Saturday through next week:

High pressure will move through the region again on Saturday which will produce strong northeast winds over western Lake Superior. Another prominent lake breeze is forecast with cooler temperatures. A backdoor cool front will propagate westward over the Northland during the day as well. The combination of the cool front and the lake breeze will provide a low chance (5-15%) of isolated showers and storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The risk of rip currents will be high. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to low 70s near Lake Superior to the low to upper 80s farther inland. Despite the cooler temperatures, abundant sunshine and drier air behind the cold front will create low RH values.

Very little change in the general pattern is forecast for Sunday through next week. As the upper-level pattern slowly propagates eastward, a few shortwave troughs may propagate through the equatorward branch of the upper-level ridge. There will be a few chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through the end of the week. Widespread rainfall is not expected. Temperatures will trend a little cooler while remaining near to slightly above normal. Highs will generally be in the low 70s near Lake Superior to the low to middle 80s farther inland.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Light and variable winds are forecast early this morning and will strengthen slightly for today. Winds veer southerly or southeasterly as they diminish tonight. Clear skies and calm winds at HIB, BRD, and HYR overnight may support fog. As of this forecast the fog potential is less than 20% so I did not include visibility reductions in the forecast. If fog develops, expect visibility to vary between LIFR and MVFR for a few hours early Friday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

High pressure will drift southward over Lake Superior today. Wind speeds will increase to 5-15 knots with waves of 1 to 2 feet. Winds turn southwesterly for Friday. Saturday will see a return of strong northeast winds. Conditions may become hazardous to smaller vessels particularly near the Twin Ports portions of the South Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

High pressure will drift southward over Lake Superior today. A prominent lake breeze is forecast to propagate well inland similar to yesterday. Abundant sunshine will provide deep mixing and allow RH values to drop to 20-35% for most locations. Immediately behind the lake breeze there may be an increase in RH values before they drop again. The lowest RH values are forecast north of the Iron Range into the inland Arrowhead. Low RH values below 25% are expected in northwest Wisconsin east of a line from near Ashland to Glidden to Phillips. Southerly return flow Friday will bring warmer temperatures and low RH values to most of the Northland except portions of the Arrowhead where a lake breeze will limit drying. South and southeast winds will be less than 10 mph. A backdoor (westward moving) cold front and a prominent lake breeze Saturday will bring cooler temperatures to the Northland though afternoon RH values will remain dry. Not much change in the pattern through next week with small chances of isolated showers and storms from time to time Monday night through the end of the week. Widespread rainfall is not expected.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Record to near-record high temperatures return Friday. Hibbing is forecast to break their record by several degrees and International Falls is forecast to tie their record. Below are the sites where forecast high temperatures are within 4 degrees of their record values.

Friday, May 29: Forecast Record -------- ------ Duluth: 85 ........ 87 in 1986 Hibbing: 91 ........ 88 in 1999 and 2006 I. Falls: 92 ........ 92 in 1919 Brainerd: 90 ........ 94 in 2018

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.