textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog this morning will erode after 10AM.

- Warmer today with low chances of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Similar story for Wednesday with temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s.

- Widespread precipitation chances and storms return late Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface high pressure will be meandering around Lake Superior today with northeasterly winds off of the Lake pushing marine fog inland this morning. This fog is expected to retreat back to the Lake by late morning. Largely quiet conditions for the day with temperatures warming into the 80s. Not quite as muggy as yesterday away from the lake with dewpoints staying out of the 70s. Can't fully rule out some isolated showers and storms as a weak surface low moves through Ontario this afternoon. This could lead to some surface convergence along the return flow of the high pressure over Lake Superior. The most likely area to see any activity would across northern MN and into the Arrowhead, but chances are still fairly low 15-25%. If a storm does manage to develop it will have some instability to work with but the low shear environment should keep things from getting to severe criteria. There will also still be plenty of smoke aloft in the skies which may increase the CIN further lowering chances of anything developing.

Tomorrow:

The warming trend continues with widespread upper 80s and some low 90s across the region. And with the dewpoints approaching the upper 60s we will see those heat indicies climb a few degrees higher. Broad ridging aloft will be in place helping to suppress any widespread precipitation chances. But some diurnally driven activity will be possible in the afternoon hours which could be slightly amplified by any ridge runners. However, most the CAMs and the deterministic guidance keeps PoPs at bay through the day. For now, we have limited the chances to less than 20%.

Late Week:

Our next significant weather maker arrives on Thursday and Friday as a shortwave trough and associated cold front approach from the west. This system will bring our next widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms, and possibly some severe threat too though shear looks a little weak at the moment and could be the limiting factor. As southerly flow increases ahead of the front, humidity levels will creep back up, maintaining high temperatures in the upper 80s despite the increased cloud cover and precipitation chances.

Weekend:

Looking ahead to the upcoming weekend, the Northland will remain in a somewhat stagnant weather pattern. Afternoon highs will generally stay in the 80s. With the main storm track positioned to our north, we can expect occasional, less organized waves of showers and storms to dive across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Surface high pressure is stalled over Lake Superior through the forecast period with northeasterly flow off the Lake sending fog inland. DLH/HIB will see reduced visibilities through the morning hours and possibly HYR. This fog will erode after sunrise with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the day. A stray shower or sprinkle can't be ruled out during the afternoon but coverage is expected to be very minimal.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Marine dense fog advisory remains in effect through 11AM. Based on the latest guidance this may need to be extended through tomorrow morning. Surface high pressure takes up residence over Lake Superior leading to variable winds of 10 knots or less and wave heights staying less than 1 foot.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Warm temperatures over the next couple days with surface high pressure lingering over Lake Superior. Winds will be variable but are not expected to be overly strong. Min RHs will also bottom out around 40%. Low chances of rain today and tomorrow with the better chances for more widespread rain and storms returning late Thursday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140>148-150.