textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy downpours the main threats. Outflow boundaries will be the trigger mechanisms for storms today.

- A high risk of rip currents exists today for Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches due to gusty northeast winds.

- The heat builds back into the region by Monday with temperatures pushing into the middle and upper 80s for most of the Northland.

- Next week the flooding threat increases as a stationary front lingers in the area in a rich moisture environment with parallel to the front upper level flow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Happy Fourth of July to the Northland. The main focus for today will be shower and thunderstorm chances. Outflow boundaries will be the trigger mechanisms for storms today. Because of this, we have upped PoPs to have a minimum of 20 percent across the Northland given the nature of the environment. A few of these storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph, hail up to quarter size, and heavy downpours that could lead to localized flooding. The best environment for stronger storms is across north-central Minnesota where buoyancy is highest while a local minima exists in the Arrowhead east of Silver Bay. We could also see some appreciable rainfall amounts out of these storms, with the HREF max and LPMM products suggesting very localized totals of 3"+, location dependent on exactly where storms fire. Many model solutions however are suggesting that some of the highest precipitation totals could be in the Itasca/Cass/Aitkin county to I-35 and Twin Ports area, which is where some of the highest localized rainfall totals have been recently. If heavy rains fall in the right area, some localized flooding could be possible. The primary timing for widespread storms and any severe risk should be between 3-10 PM. Thinking about 30% of folks will have their evening activities impacted by these thunderstorms.

Aside from the storms, it will be a cooler day near Lake Superior with gusty northeast winds keeping highs in the 60s, while inland areas reach the 70s and low 80s.

Heading into Sunday, the upper level disturbance that is bringing us today's active weather will slowly push eastward. We could see a few lingering showers or a rumble of thunder, primarily across northwest Wisconsin, but severe weather is not anticipated. Much of the area will enjoy a mostly sunny and slightly warmer day to finish the holiday weekend, with high temperatures rebounding into the 70s to lower 80s. The northeast winds off Lake Superior will also gradually subside throughout the day.

High pressure briefly builds across the region on Monday, bringing a return to hot and humid conditions. High temperatures will climb well into the middle and upper 80s for a vast majority of the area. Most of the daylight hours on Monday should remain dry under plenty of sunshine, but we are monitoring the approach of another weather system that will bring precipitation chances back to the region by late Monday night.

The extended forecast for Tuesday through Friday looks active as a stationary frontal boundary sets up shop across the Upper Midwest. This will bring multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to our region, particularly peaking in coverage between Tuesday and Wednesday. Rich PWATs of 2" will linger around this boundary giving a heavy rainfall and flooding threat which is emphasized by the WPC's Slight Risk for Flash Flooding on Day 5. Totally warranted with upper level flow parallel to this low level boundary allowing for elevated potential for training storms along the stationary boundary. Euro EFI does hint at a SOT of > 1 for this time period though still a bit of uncertainty at where this boundary sets up and if ingredients align. As of now, it looks like a good setup for heavy rainfall. High temperatures will generally remain in the 80s through midweek before slowly tapering back into the 70s by Thursday and Friday behind the departing system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions except near scattered thunderstorms persisting into the evening. Storms should produce heavy rain, localized IFR visibilities, and gusty erratic winds. Otherwise, expect northeast to southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots for most terminals through the next 24 hours, with DLH experiencing the strongest gusts to 25 knots off the lake today. Fog will likely be a problem tonight - especially where it rains today.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Gusty northeast winds will persist across western Lake Superior today. Wind gusts of 15 to 25 knots will build waves to 2 to 4 feet, especially around the Twin Ports and the Outer Apostle Islands, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening, presenting a risk for lightning. Winds and waves will gradually subside on Sunday as high pressure approaches. Expect winds to be relatively light through the remainder of the forecast.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1119 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this weekend with a mix of sun and clouds. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with isolated severe storms possible, bringing a threat for strong outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall. Winds will be primarily out of the east and northeast today and tomorrow, generally remaining light inland but becoming blustery near Lake Superior. Minimum relative humidity values will hover in the 50 to 70 percent range today, dropping into the 40 to 60 percent range on Sunday. Southerly winds and hotter temperatures return on Monday with a lot of rainfall expected next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ150.