textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light lake effect snow chances will continue for the snow belt in northwest Wisconsin into tonight and will slowly dissipate Friday. Some areas could see up to another inch.

- Dry, warming conditions are expected for the weekend and into next week. Highs will be in the 40s over the weekend and the 50s next week.

- A larger system will bring more widespread precipitation late next week, with only rain expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

For the rest of the day, northerly flow is causing lake effect snow to continue along the South Shore, and this activity is expected to persist into tonight. Elsewhere across the Northland, expect mostly dry and cooler conditions with high temperatures hovering in the 30s. The spotty snow showers across northeast Minnesota from earlier have largely dissipated as drier air begins to work its way into the region. Total accumulations along the South Shore will remain light, generally an additional dusting to an inch, though a localized two inches is possible in the higher terrain. However, this may be hard to capture due to compaction and melting.

Heading into Friday, the lake effect snow over the South Shore will eventually dissipate due to incoming warmer, drier air. As this drier air mass fully establishes itself over the area, skies will become mostly sunny for the vast majority of our region. High temperatures on Friday will again remain chilly, topping out in the middle to upper 30s with light northerly winds settling in across the Northland.

As a ridge moves over us for the rest of the weekend, temperatures will warm again into the 40s. High pressure moving into the Great Lakes region will provide plenty of sunshine and dry weather for both Saturday and Sunday. Winds will become light and variable on Saturday before shifting to a southerly direction by Sunday, helping assist with the slow and steady warming trend across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.

The upper level ridge will remain firmly in place through early next work week, allowing temperatures to climb even further into the 50s by Monday and Tuesday. Widespread dry weather will persist, with low temperatures generally falling into the 20s and 30s at night. Breezier southerly winds will develop during this timeframe, but conditions will remain quiet overall.

Global models are still in agreement of a larger system akin to a Colorado low for late next week to bring the next round of precipitation. From how temperature trends look for this system, the sole form of precipitation expected will be rain. This system is expected to track into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the Thursday and Friday timeframe, bringing widespread soaking rainfall to the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low stratus remains over the Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI tonight, with cigs in the high end MVFR to around 3500ft range. For most sites, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with variable winds at 4-5kts.

Guidance suggests the stratus over the Arrowhead could spread southwestward overnight, and bring stratus back to DLH, but with heights around 4kft. The stratus off the lake will continue to bring MVFR cigs to HYR, with cigs improving to 3500ft during the day Friday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 205 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Northerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots continue for the far North Shore into tonight, while elevated waves up to 5 ft continue across portions of the Apostle Islands east to Saxon Harbor. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the waters from Grand Portage to Grand Marais, as well as from the Outer Apostle Islands to Saxon Harbor, until early Friday morning. The gusty winds will begin to ease by Friday as high pressure builds in, bringing benign and dry weather with light winds for the weekend.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected through the forecast period. Northerly winds will gust up to 20 mph this afternoon before becoming much lighter on Friday and Saturday. Minimum relative humidity values will generally range between 40 and 60 percent for the rest of the week into early next week. Southerly winds will return Sunday and become slightly breezier by early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ140-148-150.