textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy west-northwest winds are expected today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph forecast, strongest in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

- The next round of rain and storms chances arrive Friday PM. This is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

- A second round of rainfall chances begins Sunday afternoon and goes through Monday, but with mainly light to moderate rainfall and possibly embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

- A pattern change to noticeably cooler temperatures is favored this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the rest of the day, a tightened pressure gradient is creating breezy west-northwest winds. Observed gusts of 25 to 35 mph today will continue into this afternoon, but they are expected to decrease late this afternoon into the supper hours early this evening. Calm conditions are expected by early tonight for nearly all locations. The one exception will be downsloping winds remaining mixed out for terrain funneled areas of the North Shore where winds will linger late this evening. There will also be a few rain showers along the Borderlands through late afternoon today under the cyclonic cold air advection associated with the deep low pressure over far northern Ontario.

A weak warm air advection regime sets up Thursday daytime into Thursday night leading to seasonable warm to almost hot temperatures both days. Expect mild and dry conditions through Friday mid-day.

By Friday early afternoon, severe weather chances begin to first increase for north-central Minnesota as an advancing cold front stemming from a low pressure over central Manitoba shifts into the Upper Midwest. Global ensemble guidance is progging a moist airmass around 1.5 inches of precipitable water lining up with favorable mid-level lapse rates and instability profiles. This supports an uptick in thunderstorm development likely early to mid-afternoon, first in the Brainerd Lakes to Leech Lakes region. By later afternoon as better shear moves into the region and CAPE values continue to indicate a growing availability of energy for storm growth, the more likely time period for severe weather sets up into northeast Minnesota for late afternoon to the early to mid evening hours. The stateline counties of northwest Wisconsin right along the Minnesota and Wisconsin border would also be included in this greatest severe weather threat for Friday evening when damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected under this environmental setup and we will have to watch for possible minor flooding Friday evening. Severe weather chances will taper late Friday evening to early overnight as the cold front and troughing move through the region. Expect a downturn in shower activity from west-northwest to east-southeast Friday night.

Gusty northwest winds return for Saturday daytime under cooler temperatures as high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front. For Saturday late night into Sunday early morning, far northern Minnesota likely sees temperatures dipping into the upper 30s. We will have to monitor for any mid 30s potential as well in the usual cold spots near the Iron Range and into the Arrowhead up into Koochiching County.

Sunday afternoon into Monday, a warm front sets up south of the region into southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin to create gusty easterly onshore winds for all lakeshore areas. This pattern also favors a more fall-like cloudy and longer duration light to moderate rainfall with embedded general thunderstorm potential for Monday daytime. While the rainfall ends by Tuesday daytime, fall-like near-normal to cooler temperatures and more breezy conditions will persist into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Gusty west winds will taper off early in the TAF period with skies clearing through the overnight hours. High pressure moves across the region tomorrow with light winds and diurnal cumulus expected.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Strong southwest winds will persist through the early evening. Extended Small Craft Advisory for the western waters until 01z, but expect some areas will see wind speeds drop off below Small Craft Advisory just before then. Where Gale Warnings are currently in effect, I issued a Small Craft Advisory until 03z. Winds and waves are expected to fall off pretty quickly there this evening as well as high pressure moves in from the west overnight. Winds will become light tonight, then south to southwesterly Thursday. There may be some gusts in the 20-25 kt range up near Grand Portage Thursday afternoon, but otherwise expect gusts below 20 kt. Gusty southwest winds are expected on Friday with showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms capable of strong winds to around 40 kt and large hail are possible. Gusty winds persist through Saturday with a wind shift to west-northwesterly through the day. Monday and Tuesday will be the next chance for hazardous marine conditions. Gales are possible (60% chance), especially along the North Shore, on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Some dry weather is in the forecast for Thursday with high pressure. Winds will be fairly light from the southwest with gusts to around 10-15 mph. RH may fall to around 35 percent, especially for usually dry places like the Pine Barrens in northwest Wisconsin. Friday morning through midday, expect some breezy southwest to south winds and some locally dry conditions in northwest Wisconsin ahead of expected rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. A wetting rain is likely for most places, and heavy rainfall amounts in excess of one inch are quite possible for some areas. While there's some uncertainty in exact location, northeast Minnesota currently has the best chance for seeing heavy rainfall amounts.

Dry weather is likely Saturday, and RH may fall to around 40 percent for many places. Wind gusts around 20-25 mph are likely as well. Rainfall from Friday may lessen any fire weather concerns.

An active weather pattern continues with more widespread rain and thunderstorms likely Sunday into Monday. Wetting rains are possible for most places.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140-147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>146.