textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Brutally cold temperatures are expected through the weekend, with multiple days below zero Thursday through Sunday. Low actual temperatures in the negative 30s to 40F, and minimum wind chills in the negative 30s to 50s. The coldest days will likely be Friday and Saturday.

- A couple areas of light snow pass over the region this evening through the day Wednesday. Accumulations of an inch or less are expected.

- Light lake effect snow and clouds may persist along the South Shore through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Relative to the last couple days and the coming days, today and tomorrow will be fairly "mild" (in a northern mid winter sense). High temperatures above zero are expected this afternoon and Wednesday - with some folks seeing afternoon temperatures in the teens tomorrow! This temperature moderation is occurring thanks to some WAA ahead of a couple passing upper level vort maxes spurring on some weak surface clippers. These will pass through this evening through Wednesday bringing a couple areas of light snow. The first passes through this evening, mostly from Brainerd to Hayward. The second should move across the area from northwest to southeast through the day Wednesday with a little wrap around snow lingering into Thursday morning. Total accumulations should be around an inch or less across the region.

Behind the Wednesday clipper, a hefty cold air mass is expected to drop into the Northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes region through the weekend with 850mb temperatures dropping into the -30s Celsius. This is expected to result in several days of some very cold surface temperatures beginning Wednesday evening through at least Sunday midday, when temperatures are unlikely to rise much above zero, if at all. The coldest days of this period are expected to be Friday and Saturday. Thursday and Friday, brisk northwest winds are expected which will lead to the coldest winds chills of this period Thursday night into Friday morning. Wind chill values of -40 to -50F are possible. The coldest actual air temperatures are expected Friday night into Saturday morning when widespread temperatures of -30 to -40F are forecast. There is a 5 to 10% chance that some of the local coldest spots could drop to -50F actual temperature on Saturday morning.

With these cold temperatures and high confidence in them occurring, we've issued a plethora of cold weather headlines with this forecast update. For Wednesday evening into Thursday morning/midday, we've gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for much of the area, with an Extreme Cold Warning along the far north. The Borderlands warning and the advisory along the Iron Range/North Shore continue through the day on Thursday as any diurnal warming is expected to be minimal. Thursday evening, the whole area falls into a Extreme Cold Watch through midday Saturday. Sunday and Monday mornings will likely feature more Cold Weather Advisories but shouldn't be as brutally cold as Friday/Saturday. Looking ahead to next week it appears we'll moderate slightly but still be below normal.

There are little to no chances of snow after tomorrow's clipper, outside of the South Shore possibly getting some on/off lake effect with the northwest winds and cold temperatures. Global models show a slight chance of snow returning mid next week as slightly warmer temperatures allow moisture back into the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1103 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to slowly deteriorate through the TAF period to widespread MVFR ceilings. Some light snow could at times drop visibilities into the MVFR range as well. The first chance of snow this evening will most likely affect BRD and maybe DLH and HYR. A second push of snow Wednesday may hit all terminals at some point. Fairly light westerly winds expected through the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Winds continue to taper off through this evening and remain fairly light through the day Wednesday. Into Wednesday evening, following some light snow, winds become northwesterly and strengthen with gusts exceeding 25 knots likely by Thursday morning. Gusty northwest winds continue through the rest of the week with Small Craft Advisories likely needed. Areas of lake effect snow could lead to locally reduced visibility. Very cold temperatures could also lead to pockets of freezing spray along the South Shore with the strongest northwest winds.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ018>021. Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for MNZ010>012-018>021. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ010>012. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon CST Thursday for MNZ025-026-033>038. Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for MNZ025-026-033>038. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to noon CST Thursday for WIZ001>004-006>009. Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ142. Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ150.