textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures continue this week, with a slight cooldown near the end of the week.

- Low, isolated chances of showers and storms tonight into the mid week may bring a couple hundredths of rain and cloud to ground lightning.

- More shower and storm chances Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the rest of the day, pleasant conditions will prevail across the Northland under mostly sunny skies. Elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead may cause hazy skies at times. As we head into tonight, cloud cover will gradually increase across the region. A weak passing disturbance will bring a slight chance of rain showers and isolated storms after midnight (no severe weather expected). However, precipitation probability for tonight is capped at thirty percent as incoming moisture battles dry air in place over the area, resulting in little to no accumulation.

On Tuesday, mostly sunny skies will return for much of the day with only a lingering slight chance of morning showers. Weather disturbances diving through the persistent northwest flow aloft will bring another chance for showers and non-severe storms Tuesday night. Recent guidance indicates that showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday have taken a more southerly track. Uncertainty in the placement of convection, shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday night are also capped at thirty percent. Furthermore, as these weak features continue to battle the ambient dry airmass over our region, very little rainfall accumulation is expected.

Heading into Wednesday, partly sunny conditions are expected to prevail. With the bulk of the upper-level energy shifting south of the Northland, only scattered rain showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms remain in the forecast. High pressure will then build into the Upper Midwest for Thursday, providing quiet, drier weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the entire area.

Looking toward the end of the week, comfortable mid-August weather will continue on Friday with partly sunny skies. A stronger low-pressure system is forecast to approach the area Friday night into Saturday, bringing a more widespread chance for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Cloud cover will increase Friday night with rain chances peaking on Saturday. As the system moves east Saturday night, precipitation will taper off, leading to partly sunny skies on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 553 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period aside from some fog potential primarily at KHIB and KHYR early Tuesday morning. There will be some isolated to widely scattered showers and perhaps a few embedded storms later this evening through early Tuesday morning in northern Minnesota, with the best chances (20%) near KINL and KHIB. This precipitation will be fighting drier air in the lower portions of the atmosphere. Therefore, have opted to not include mention of precipitation in the TAFs with this issuance.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Southwest winds of 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots along the North Shore will turn light and variable overnight. Waves will remain 1 to 2 feet in the far northern nearshore waters and 1 foot or less elsewhere. There is a very small chance for showers and storms on Lake Superior overnight tonight. Main hazard will be cloud to ground lightning. On Tuesday, winds become northeast at 5 to 10 knots with waves remaining 1 foot or less. No marine headlines are expected over the next 72 hours. Slight general thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night and Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A slightly drier airmass remains across the region today with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 35 to 45 percent range, accompanied by west to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph. For the rest of the work week, moisture increases slightly with minimum relative humidity values in the 30 to 50 percent range and light northwest to north winds around 5 to 10 mph. Winds will switch to the southeast on Friday but will remain light. A pattern of periodic shower and non- severe thunderstorm chances every 36 to 48 hours will maintain intermittent opportunities for localized wetting rains through the week ahead.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.