textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a level 2 out of 5 (Slight Risk) for severe thunderstorms across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and into the early evening.

- Threats with severe thunderstorms across northwest Wisconsin today include large hail to ping pong ball size, damaging winds to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning.

- For this weekend and into next week, temperatures will be near normal across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s with sporadic, daily chances for rain showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk, level 2 out of 5 risk, for much of northwest Wisconsin for this afternoon and into the early evening. A Marginal Risk, level 1 out of 5 risk, extends into the I-35 corridor in Minnesota. The biggest question is how much heating will occur across northwest Wisconsin this afternoon with a combination of both low level cloud cover beneath the cap, and anvil spreading across from storms further south in Minnesota. The longer this cloud cover holds, the less buoyancy will build which will limit the severe thunderstorm threat. If clouds are able to dissipate some, MLCAPE values on the order of 1500-2000 j/kg could materialize across northwest Wisconsin with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s ahead of the cold front. Effective deep layer shear of 25-30kts will be sufficient for some organized convective structures. However, this modest shear will place somewhat of a limit on storm organization, intensity and the hazards. Primary threats include large hail to ping pong ball size, damaging winds to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning. The time of the peak threat in northwest Wisconsin looks to be between 21Z and 00Z (4pm-7 pm CDT).

For the rest of the forecast for this weekend and into next week, quasi zonal flow is favored across the lower 48. This overall large scale flow pattern favors near normal temperatures with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. The main storm track is favored to remain south of the Northland, however, low predictability impulses embedded in the faster flow aloft and daytime heating would present a near daily, sporadic coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms (isolated to scattered coverage). Overall, with limited buoyancy, severe weather is not likely.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

IFR/MVFR stratus from KBRD through KDLH and the I-35 corridor will lift early this afternoon. Elsewhere across northeast Minnesota, VFR cumulus fields will develop behind a cold front. This cold front will be the focus for thunderstorms this afternoon and into the evening across northwest Wisconsin. A few of these storms may be strong to severe with large hail, damaging winds, and IFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail tonight across the region with some patchy fog possible with light winds and rainfall from today. VFR conditions are forecast on Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Southwest turning westerly winds this afternoon around 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts as a cold front moves across western Lake Superior. Waves will be 1 foot or less. Scattered thunderstorms are expected for the South Shore of Lake Superior this afternoon and evening. Large hail and wind gusts in excess of 40 kts are possible with these storms, along with dangerous cloud to water lightning. Northwest winds of 5-10 kts will continue on Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Mostly sunny on Saturday with high temperatures in the mid 70s to the lower 80s across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Relative humidity will range from 35 to 45 percent for most areas, lowest across the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Winds on Saturday will be westerly at 5 to 10 mph. Isolated to scattered rain showers may develop (20-40 percent chance) near the International Border late Saturday afternoon and into the evening.

Scattered rain showers are forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning across the area, focusing across northwest Wisconsin Sunday afternoon. High temperatures on Sunday will be the 70s to the lower 80s, with higher minimum relative humidity values of 45-55 percent.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.