textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Frost/freeze conditions are expected tonight in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead.

- Rain is expected Saturday into Saturday evening, especially along the International Border.

- Another cold night with subfreezing temperatures expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Just a few clouds out there along the Canadian Border this afternoon, but otherwise a very nice and sunny day out there with high pressure passing through. It's looking like another cold night tonight as high pressure migrates east. Parts of northwest Wisconsin and the tip of the Arrowhead will have a good chance for frost and freezing temperatures tonight due to clear skies and light winds. Probabilities for temperatures below 36 degrees are pretty high (>60%) extending into inland parts of Bayfield/Sawyer counties, so I expanded the Frost Advisory west and also added Ashland county to a Freeze Warning. The window for frost and freezing temperatures will be a bit less than last night as clouds increase from west to east tonight ahead of an approaching low and upper-level trough.

On Saturday, expect rain and rain showers through the day as low pressure passes through. The best chances will be along the International Border. While thunder isn't looking likely, there may be some slight convective elements due to weak instability. With PWATs hovering around an inch, there could be a few spunky showers that could drop some locally moderate rainfall amounts. Most places should see a quarter inch or less, but locally higher amounts can't be ruled out. Rain will pass through with clearing behind a cold front Saturday night.

On Sunday, expect breezy and cool post-frontal weather. There could be some wraparound clouds and maybe a few sprinkles, but in general, it's looking pretty dry out there. Expect breezy conditions, especially in the Arrowhead, where wind gusts 20-30 mph are expected.

Another area of high pressure settles in Sunday night, and we're continuing to expect a pretty widespread freeze out there, or at least frost. Most inland areas will see temperatures reach into the 28-32 degree range. Areas near Lake Superior and possibly around the Brainerd Lakes may be spared a freeze.

On Monday, southerly flow returns and a warming trend with temperatures is expected. At this point, the forecast is continuing to trend dry despite passage of a trough sometime around Tuesday night. We'll probably see some highs in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday, then a drop in temperatures later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Light winds this evening and tonight, gradually shifting to out of the south. Expect VFR ceilings for much of the TAF period, though INL could see MVFR ceilings arrive by Saturday afternoon and at most other terminals aside from BRD as early as Saturday evening behind departing rain showers. The rain showers move in to INL and BRD as early as late Friday night, though dry air in the lower portions of the atmosphere may prevent onset. Otherwise, rain showers move through the region on a scattered basis daytime Saturday, ending from west to east for most terminals late Saturday afternoon and evening. Can't rule out brief MVFR visibility with any showers that move directly over a terminal, mainly at INL and HIB, but VFR visibilities should generally prevail. Southerly winds increase again on Saturday with gusts up to 20-25 kt, strongest at BRD.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Winds will continue to gradually decrease this afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight. Expect rain showers Saturday into Saturday night. Thunder is not expected at this time. Some breezy southerly winds develop Saturday, and some Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the South Shore, Outer Apostle Islands, and up near Grand Marais. As a cold front passes through Saturday night, winds become westerly and eventually northwesterly. Gusty winds are expected going into Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for most nearshore waters through Sunday afternoon. Winds will remain northwesterly through Sunday night, then become light and variable Monday as high pressure passes through.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Expect dry conditions to persist this afternoon, but light winds should keep fire weather conditions pretty minimal. A low pressure system will pass through Saturday into Saturday night, bringing mainly light rain to the region. Most places will see less than a quarter inch, but some places mainly along the International Border could see around or slightly above a quarter inch. After a cold front passes through Saturday night, expect another generally dry day Sunday with blustery northwest winds, especially in the Arrowhead where 20-30 mph gusts are expected. RH is expected to fall into the 35-50% range, so perhaps slightly elevated fire weather conditions. Slightly lower RH values are in the forecast for Monday, but with wind speeds lighter. A warmup is in store for the middle of next week. Rain chances are looking sparse. There could be a dry day or two.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ012-021. WI...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ002-008-009. Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...None.