textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front brings cooler and dry air giving near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon for parts of east- central MN and northwest WI.

- Brushed by a weak system on Tuesday morning with just a trace of snow for areas south of Douglas County.

- Late week potential system is looking less likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Skies clearing out for a sunny afternoon after a cold frontal passage this morning. The combination of very dry air, with humidity dropping into the upper 20s, and breezy northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 mph will create elevated, and in some spots near-critical, fire danger. This is especially true for areas from Crow Wing County in Minnesota across to Sawyer County in Wisconsin, particularly in the pine barrens. Please be extra cautious with any activities that could start a fire.

The dry pattern continues. :( High pressure will build over the area, giving us a quiet and dry weekend, though it will feel much more like November. Temperatures today will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than yesterday, and Sunday will be even chillier, dropping another 5 to 10 degrees. The quiet weather continues into the start of next week. We are watching a small disturbance that will pass well to our south late Monday into Tuesday. While most of the precipitation will miss us, there's a small chance for a light wintry mix to brush our far southern counties. Overall, impacts from this system look to be minimal.

Our next chance for precipitation won't arrive until late next week. Forecast models are watching a storm system currently developing out west that is expected to track east across the country. This system has the potential to develop into a strong storm, pulling moisture up from the Gulf as it moves into the Midwest. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the track with deterministic guidance looking less promising followed by an ensemble trend downward for precipitation. Parts of our region may see some rain or snow, but we will be keeping an eye on this system as it develops and likely passes to our south.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period as high pressure keeps skies clear for much of the region. Northwest winds will occasionally be gusty, especially in the Arrowhead, through the period. These northwest winds will be easing Sunday evening and become variable as the high pressure center moves into north-central Minnesota on Sunday night.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 115 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of western Lake Superior. Northwest winds will increase this evening behind a cold front, reaching 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 35 knots for some prompting a Gale Warning for the North Shore tonight where katabatic flow will enhance wind gusts. These strong winds will build waves to 3 to 6 feet, especially near the Bayfield Peninsula and the Outer Apostle Islands by this evening. Winds remain breezy from the northwest on Sunday before diminishing late in the day. Conditions will become much calmer on Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Sunday for LSZ121-147-148. Gale Warning until 2 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ142>146. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ150.