textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming up today into this weekend. Hot weather with near- record highs in the upper-70s to mid-80s expected on Saturday and near-record warm lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s Saturday night.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are likely to occur Saturday with gusty south winds of 25-35 mph, dry air, and very warm temperatures.

- Closer to seasonal temperatures next week with light rain chances returning late Sunday and Monday and additional chances mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT:

Surface high pressure over the central Great Lakes as of Friday afternoon has led to southeast winds with gusts to around 15-25 mph and mostly clear skies across much of the Northland, though cloudier in far northern Minnesota to the Apostle Islands. Temperatures have warmed nicely away from Lake Superior into the 60s to around 70F aside from 50s for portions of the Arrowhead due to onshore flow. High temperatures top out in the 60s to even low 70s away from Lake Superior later this afternoon, highest in east-central Minnesota to inland northwest Wisconsin. Southeasterly winds continue into tonight, though wind gusts should drop off a bit. Look for low temperatures ranging ranging from the mid 50s in southwestern areas to mid/upper 40s in the Minnesota Arrowhead and parts of north- central Wisconsin. No precipitation is expected.

THIS WEEKEND:

On Saturday, an anomalous upper-level ridge axis centered just to our east and troughing over the Pacific Northwest will leave the Northland nestled in between with southwest flow aloft. At the same time, surface low pressure in the Dakotas will leave a tight pressure gradient out ahead of it extending into the Northland. This pressure gradient will bring summer-like warmth and gusty conditions into the Northland. High temperature forecasts for Saturday have remained consistent, reaching the upper 70s to mid-80s, warmest in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin. Downsloping southerly winds/compressional warming along the South Shore should boost temperatures there, but lead to onshore winds and cooler temperatures for the tip of the Arrowhead. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected, as well as minimum relative humidity dipping to the 30s (%) in the warmest areas and upper 30s to 40s (%) elsewhere. These min RH forecasts have been pretty consistent over the last 12-24 hours. The combination of fairly low relative humidity combined with the very warm and gusty conditions will likely lead to elevated to near- critical fire weather conditions on Saturday, particularly in areas along/south of the Iron Range where winds and gusts will be stronger. We stay in the warm sector of the low pressure system on Saturday night with gusty southerly winds continuing but gradually starting to weaken from NW to SE. This will keep low temperatures for many areas near daily record warm values in the upper 50s to mid 60s, except mid-50s in far north- central Minnesota. Several locations are likely to approach and possibly break record daily high temperatures for Saturday and record warm low temperatures for Saturday night (see the "Climate" section below).

The surface cold front associated with the aforementioned low pressure system will gradually be moving from northwest to southeast across the Northland on Sunday into Sunday night. The forecast progression of the front has been slightly slower than previous forecasts, which should result in high temperatures around 80F into the mid-80s in Northwest Wisconsin and as far west as east-central Minnesota and the Twin Ports. Compressional warming from downslope winds into the South Shore could also push Ashland's forecast high temperature into the mid-80s, within a couple degrees of the record daily high for Sunday. Most of northeast Minnesota should see highs in the 70s, with some mid to upper 60s in far north-central Minnesota behind the front. The warm temperatures, fairly low minimum RH, and southerly wind gusts of 20-25 mph late Sunday morning and afternoon could lead to elevated fire weather conditions in northwest Wisconsin, though potential is lower than on Saturday.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:

Upper-level support/troughing remains weak behind the cold front late Sunday, with light rain forecasts shifted slightly farther north than yesterday's forecast. Far north-central Minnesota could see light rain chances arrive as early as late Sunday afternoon or evening, with rain chances then moving across areas along and north of the Iron Range Sunday evening and night, while areas farther south miss out on the initial round of rain. Areas that do see rain likely see less than only a few hundredths of an inch at best.

Another trough aloft moves through the area Monday into Monday night as a secondary surface low moves across south-central Wisconsin into the central Great Lakes. This will bring scattered, light rain chances to more of the Northland. However, additional amounts remain light, ranging from a few hundredths in the Brainerd Lakes into far inland northwest Wisconsin to 0.1-0.25" along and north of the US HWY 2 corridor. Rainfall exits to the east by early Tuesday morning.

More seasonal October temperatures for most return Monday and Tuesday, with upper 50s to around 70F in the southern half and 50s in the northern half of the Northland. Lows Monday night are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s north to low 40s south and low to upper 30s Tuesday night. High pressure overhead on Tuesday should keep conditions dry once rain chances end late Monday night.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:

Global ensembles and deterministic model solutions have slightly slowed the progression of a digging upper-level trough over California on Monday as it ejects into the Rocky Mountains towards Wednesday and into the Upper Midwest sometime in the Thursday to Thursday night timeframe. At the surface, expect lee cyclogenesis to produce a surface low in the Colorado vicinity Tuesday night/Wednesday that will then eject northeast into the Upper Midwest Thursday. Large spread in the in the timing and track of the surface and upper-level features remains for the mid to late next week system. Stronger synoptic forcing with this system should support more widespread rainfall potential, which is favored at this time to be in the form of rain given current temperature forecasts. More seasonal temperatures are in store for the latter half of the workweek. Depending on how long wrap-around precipitation with the system hangs around into Friday/Saturday, cooler morning temperatures Friday night could support some snow flakes mixing into portions of northeast Minnesota, but confidence in seeing any snow is low (10-20%).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Breezy southeast winds have been easing early this evening as diurnal heating ends. A warm front is expected to lift north late tonight into Saturday morning, with a period of MVFR cigs in northern MN occurring around the front. A strong pressure gradient will be keeping winds elevated through the period, including widespread LLWS tonight into tomorrow morning. After the warm front lifts through the area, cloud cover is forecast to decrease with VFR conditions occurring tomorrow.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Easterly winds this afternoon and evening increase with gusts to 15-25 kt gusts initially developing in the SW arm of Lake Superior and the South Shore, then shifting out of the southeast into the North Shore this evening into early Saturday morning. Waves of 1-5 feet are forecast with these winds late Friday through very early Saturday, highest along the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories are in effect.

Strong south to south-southwest winds are forecast Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, especially along the South Shore. Gales still remain possible there (30-40% chance), but very warm temperatures over a relatively cooler Lake surface should limit even stronger gusts from reaching the Lake surface. Small Craft Advisories will be needed again, except possibly parts of the North Shore near Taconite Harbor and Grand Marais. Breezy winds continue Saturday night, but weaken on Sunday. Winds then turn northwest to northerly Sunday night into Monday with hazardous marine conditions developing once again. A couple periods of light rain will be possible Sunday evening into Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Relative humidities have dipped into the upper 20s to mid 30s this afternoon from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin, with 35 to 45% in most other locations and locally higher along the North Shore and at the Twin Ports. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph continue into early/mid evening before gusts drop off overnight. RH recovers above 80% tonight.

On Saturday, very warm temperatures, strong and gusty southerly winds, and fairly low min RH are in store. While dewpoints will be increasing into the 50s, near-record high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s will push min RH into the 33-45% range, lowest from the I-35 corridor into northwest Wisconsin. Winds will be sustained at 10-20 mph, strongest along and south of the Iron Range. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are also forecast.. Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible as a result late Saturday morning through early Saturday evening. RH recovers above 60% Saturday night, though low temperatures will remain warm in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Gusty winds continue into Saturday night, but diminish slightly.

Less strong winds will persist into Sunday, with gusts at 15-25 mph in the morning in northwest Wisconsin dropping below 20 mph in the afternoon. Wind gusts elsewhere remain below 20 mph throughout the day. Min RH is forecast to dip to 33-40% in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and 45% or higher elsewhere as a cold front moves northwest to southeast across the area Sunday into Sunday night. Winds shift to northerly behind the front late Sunday into Monday. Scattered light rain will be possible as early as late afternoon/evening Sunday in far north-central Minnesota, and into Sunday night mainly along and north of the Iron Range. Only a few hundredths of an inch at best are expected. Another round of rain moves through on Monday into Monday night on a scattered basis for more of the Northland. Amounts with this second round range from a few hundredths in the Brainerd Lakes into far inland northwest Wisconsin to 0.1-0.25" along and north of the US HWY 2 corridor. Rainfall exits to the east by early Tuesday morning.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures and warm low temperatures are shown below for Saturday and Sunday, October 10th and 11th, where the forecast temperature is within three degrees of approaching the record temperature.

High Temperatures:

10/10: Record Forecast KDLH: 82/1938 82 KINL: 80/1955 78 KBRD: 85/1928 84 KHIB: 81/1938 80 KASX: 86/1938 86

10/11: Record Forecast KASX: 86/2015 84

Warm Minimum Temperatures:

10/11: Record Forecast KDLH: 58/1938 63 KBRD: 58/1997 65 KHIB: 55/1938 61 KASX: 58/2015 64

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 143>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141-142.