textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions for the next several days.

- Cooler conditions continue through Sunday with a warming tend coming later in the week with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s by Friday.

- Rain and storm chances (50-70%) return Tuesday and again on Thursday (20-30%).

UPDATE

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Wind gusts will weaken over the next few hours and RH values are expected to increase as temperatures begin to cool. Will let the Red Flag Warning expire at 7 PM. Near-critical fire weather conditions persist this evening and will improve as wind gusts taper off later this evening. Dry RH values are forecast again Sunday afternoon and evening though high pressure should result in weaker wind gusts. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected once again Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Quiet Pattern This Weekend and Monday:

A cold front has exited the region and is now draped across the Ohio River Valley and through MO. This leaves our region with northwest winds streaming once again and cyclonic flow aloft. Some diurnal cumulus can be expected once again as we head into the afternoon hours. Light rain seems unlikely to make it to the ground today as model soundings have an inverted V shape and subsidence over the region will also act against precipitation. Overnight a small impulse passes over the tip of the Arrowhead that could lead to some light rain, but still low chances (<20%). Overall, quiet weather today with elevated fire weather concerns due to the dry conditions and gusty northwest winds.

Sunday's pattern remains similar to today with surface high pressure slowly nudging in from the Canadian Prairies. We will maintain the northwest winds streaming across the region, although not quite as breezy as today. High temps will still be in the 40s and 50s with another batch of diurnal cumulus developing in the afternoon. Squeezing out any moisture from this batch of clouds seems unlikely given the dry lower levels and subsidence in play.

Monday surface high pressure transitions over towards the Great Lakes which will allow southerly winds to return to the Northland. A warm front will start to advance in from the west but current guidance doesn't have the boundary moving into our CWA until late Monday. Still, the southerly winds will help to warm the region back into the 50s and 60s. Model soundings still show quite a bit of dry air up through the mid levels with high clouds starting to roll in ahead of the next weather system.

Next chance for Rain Tuesday:

Early Tuesday morning an upper level trough digs across southern Manitoba with a pair of surface lows expected to move across the Upper Midwest. A warm front propelled by a strong low level jet will cross through the Northland bringing rain chances of 50-70% across the region. Weak MUCAPE will accompany these showers which may induce some embedded thunderstorms. Pockets of steep mid level lapse rates could lead to small hail with any more robust cells that develop.

The system is expected to occlude along the International Border through the day which will keep PoPs running through most of Tuesday. Although a dry slot looks to nudge in across the Brainerd Lakes region in the afternoon which will cut the chances down a bit. The system then exits to the east early Wednesday.

Midweek-End of the Work Week:

Cool high pressure briefly sets up for Wednesday leading to a quiet day with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upper level ridge axis will push past the region for the latter part of the work week which will allow for warmer temperatures to return. Highs will climb into the 70s with some areas seeing 80s by Friday. The influx of warmer air and southwest flow will also prompt some increased rain and thunderstorm potential. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is suggesting a return of a low level jet as a low pressure system moves out of the Northern Plains late Thursday. For now, we are carrying a 20-30% chance for showers and to round out the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR ceilings will scatter out overnight for most locations. Wind gusts will linger a bit later than the past few nights due to the cold air advection in the wake of today's cold front. Think wind gusts will subside by 10.03Z. VFR ceilings return for a time Sunday and winds will become gusty by mid-morning. As high pressure drifts southeastward across the Northland during the day, wind speeds and gusts are expected to relax by a few knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Northwest winds continue to stream across the Lake with a few gusts around 20 kts at times. This flow will persist overnight before winds weaken a bit on Sunday with 5 to 10 kts expected. No hazardous weather expected at this time.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Cool and dry northwest flow continues for the region. Wind gusts are clocking in slightly higher than what was previously forecasted for this afternoon. With Min RHs continuing to trend down we will soon meet Red Flag Criteria across the Brainerd Lakes Region and into the Twin Ports.

Tomorrows set up is similar to today with weaker winds. Min RHs are still expected to drop to 25-30%. High pressure moves across the region for Monday with some upper level clouds spilling in from the west later in the day. Overall, expecting a very dry day on Monday with widespread Min RHs below 25%. Winds will be out of the south with a few gust in the lower teens in the afternoon.

Our next chance for some widespread rain will be Tuesday as a system moves in from the west. Some thunderstorms will be possible. This system does not look like a super soaker by any means with rain totals largely between 0.10-0.25" The current low tracks would suggest that portions of northern MN could see around 0.50"

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ033>038. WI...None. MARINE...None.