textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain, snow, and patchy freezing rain are possible today with minor wintry accumulations possible. Some snow squalls or thunderstorms may be possible this evening in north- central MN.

- Daily freeze/thaw is expected today through Saturday. Temperatures likely to remain above freezing Saturday through Monday.

- Areas of rain expected late this weekend into next week. Some areas may see over an inch of rain and this could lead to some minor flooding, especially in areas where rain falls on remaining snowpack.

UPDATE

Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A weak double barreled low is making its way across the northern and Canadian plains early this morning, expected to move across our area through the day today. Warm frontal precipitation early this morning has been extremely limited because there is still so much dry air at the surface. As the column moistens, some snow and light freezing rain is still possible for the Borderlands, MN Arrowhead, and north- central WI through late this morning. A trace to several inches of snow may be able to accumulate over portions of Koochiching, northern St. Louis, Lake, and Cook Counties by midday. However, we'll have some healthy warm air advection today bringing highs into the upper 30s, 40s, and low 50s. This should turn off the snow accumulation ahead of the system's cold front. As that front passes from late this morning through the afternoon, expect mostly light to moderate rain with a couple snowflakes mixing in across the MN Arrowhead. A couple hundredths up to 0.25" of rain are possible.

As that front passes, some colder air advects in on the backside and brings some light rain and snow Wednesday evening into very early Thursday morning. This portion of the system could have some decent low level lapse rates and pockets of instability which may lend itself to more of a convective snow shower or thunderstorm behavior. Some quick reductions in visibility could be possible this evening along the International Border with snow squalls but with temperatures not falling back below freezing until late this evening, accumulations may be difficult to produce. Mid level dry air starts to wrap into this system late Wednesday evening which may assist in shutting off precipitation.

Fairly quiet weather with temperatures well above freezing in the afternoons are expected Thursday - midday Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

For the rest of the day, expect sunny skies and temperatures into the upper 30s and 40s across the Northland. High pressure is providing a brief respite before our next system approaches from the west. Clouds will begin to thicken tonight as a warm front lifts into the region. Precipitation will develop after midnight, initially fighting dry air at the surface. As the column saturates, a wintry mix is expected to overspread the area. A warm nose aloft will create the potential for freezing rain, and a glaze of ice remains possible by Wednesday morning, primarily across our eastern zones in northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead. Additionally, the North Shore could see some enhanced snowfall Wednesday morning from lake and terrain effects, totaling up to 2 inches by noon. Other Borderland locations will generally see less than an inch.

Also throughout Wednesday, an advancing cold front will sweep across the area. With high temperatures pushing into the 40s and mid 50s, morning mixed precipitation will largely transition to scattered rain showers for the afternoon. Most will see precipitation end by late afternoon, but a second round of precipitation including snow, rain, and ice pellets is possible tomorrow evening across the northern Iron Range and Borderlands. This activity will be driven by a backdoor cold front sliding south, and there is even enough instability that a rumble of thunder or two and convective, heavy precipitation cannot be ruled out.

Moving into Thursday, continued cold air advection on northwest flow will bring additional light snow showers, particularly lingering over the Arrowhead region. Further south, a trough dipping into the central plains will push an associated front across the Midwest. This feature could reach far enough north to bring some light mixed precipitation to central Minnesota and Wisconsin, though very little accumulation, if any, is expected from this southern stream system.

A major pattern shift arrives for the weekend as broad ridging builds across the central United States. This will kick off a significant warming trend, with high temperatures soaring into the 50s and 60s across the Northland. While the warmer weather will be welcome, it will initiate a rapid melting of the remaining snowpack. Simultaneously, a deep conveyor belt of moisture will surge northward from the Southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, setting the stage for a very wet period.

This efficient rainfall setup will target our region from Sunday into early next week, with the heaviest axis currently appearing to favor northwest Wisconsin. Rain totals over an inch are certainly possible. Given the combination of this incoming heavy rainfall and the ongoing snowmelt, there is an increasing risk for localized flooding and rapid river rises. We will be monitoring hydrologic conditions closely throughout the week. Finally, this rainy period will come to an end with the passage of a clipper system across the Northern Plains next week. This will usher in colder air and bring more snow on the backside of the system, though exact amounts remain highly uncertain at this range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Conditions are generally MVFR to LIFR across northeastern Minnesota with VFR conditions across northwestern Wisconsin early this afternoon. A cold front is moving slower than expected across the Northland this afternoon. This area of rain, snow, and mix is affecting much of northeastern Minnesota currently and is slowly moving to the east. This band of precipitation will slowly diminish as it pushes east, but there may be some additional development ahead of it across northwestern Wisconsin. This may lead to MVFR or lower conditions through the afternoon. Behind the cold front, convective rain/snow showers will be seen later this afternoon and evening across northeastern Minnesota. Much uncertainty remains as to whether these will be rain or snow primarily, which will drive visibility restrictions. Snow would lead to IFR or lower VSBYs. This activity tapers off this evening. Some improvement in ceilings is expected overnight before falling to MVFR or lower around daybreak Thursday. Winds are slow to increase across Minnesota, but are expected to ramp up in the wake of the front.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Southerly winds pick up today. With the warm air coming in from this southerly flow, there is some uncertainty on just how much of the breeze will get down to the surface of the lake Wednesday, but some areas could see gusts 20-25 knots and waves of 1-4 ft. The most likely places for this are in the Outer Apostle Islands and along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage where Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Some mixed precipitation is possible through the day. Into Thursday, winds turn to become southwesterly and strengthen. Widespread 20 knot winds with gusts of 25-30 knots are expected and additional Small Craft Advisories have been issued. Winds should quiet late Thursday into Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 255 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Mixed precipitation moves into the region today with some rain, snow, and light freezing rain possible. The greatest precipitation accumulations of 0.1-0.4" are expected north of Hwy 2 in NE MN and east of Hwy 53 in NW WI. Gusty south to southwest winds 20-30mph are expected through the day today with this precipitation. Thursday and Friday will likely be on the dry side as well with warming afternoon temperatures into the 40s and 50s and minimum RH dropping into the 25-45% range. Sunday into early next week, widespread rain is possible.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 644 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Through the rest of this week and into the weekend, daily temperatures rising well above freezing are likely to get snow transformation and melt started once again across the Northland. The snowpack across much of north-central MN, the Brainerd Lakes, I-35 corridor, and southern tier of WI counties in our CWA is fairly minimal (less than 5" in depth and 0.5-1.5" of SWE) and seems likely to melt down to mostly bare ground by Saturday. The daily overnight return to below normal temperatures should help to make for a steady, controlled melt through Saturday morning across the entire area. This will cause some injection of life back into our area waterways, but is not expected to lead to any flooding issues.

Come Saturday, an extended period of above normal temperatures with highs and lows above freezing is expected to begin and continue through early Tuesday morning. This should kick off 24/7 snow melt. Areas of rain arrive into Sunday morning and several waves of rain cross the area through Monday evening. Current ensemble guidance shows most of the area along a line from Aitkin to Ely and southeast with a 50-90% chance of receiving an inch or more of rain in this period, with locally higher amounts of 2"+ possible in NW WI. Rates themselves are unlikely at this point to lead to classic overland flooding or flash flooding. Where this rain is combined with snowmelt there are areal and riverine flooding concerns. By this weekend, it seems most likely that the only areas with remaining snowpack would be those along the North and South Shores where snow depth is still 8-30" with 2-8" of SWE today. While some of that SWE is expected to melt out by Saturday, there will likely be plenty left by the time rain begins. Current probabilistic guidance shows the potential for several river forecast points to exceed their action or minor flood stages on the Knife, Nemadji, and Bad Rivers. There is a small chance that the Tyler Forks River may crest into its moderate flood stage which leads to impacts along Highway 169 northeast of Mellen. Along the North Shore onshore winds could lead to enhanced precipitation totals and the South Shore may be closer to the higher synoptic rainfall amounts - so both areas of remaining snowpack could also be under slightly higher amounts of rain. Interests along the North and South Shore should heed latest forecasts and be prepared for possible minor flooding early next week.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-141>145-148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140- 148. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Thursday for LSZ146-147-150.