textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- First of two systems tapers off from SW to NE this morning, ending near the international border towards mid-morning.

- A second strong system arrives this afternoon and departs Saturday night with heavy snow for north central and portions of northeast Minnesota and a mix of snow and ice elsewhere. Significant ice accumulations are expected for northwest Wisconsin.

- A clipper will move through the Northland late Sunday and Monday. There is potential for snow squalls Sunday afternoon into early evening and again on Monday afternoon.

- Active weather continues next week with additional precip chances Tuesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Snow Ending this Morning:

Early this morning, light snow is lingering across far northern MN, the Arrowhead, and South Shore in NW WI as a surface low pressure system is situated over northern Lake Michigan. There is still some upper-level energy associated with this system situated across far northern Minnesota that will be slow to exit until mid to late this morning. Therefore, expect the light snow to be slow to end from southwest to northeast, lingering longest near the International Border and in the tip of the Arrowhead. Additional snow accumulations up to 0.5 to 2 inches for the Iron range and areas north. Expect only a brief period of no precipitation before the next strong low pressure system takes aim at the Northland starting later today.

2nd Winter/Ice Storm this Afternoon - Saturday night:

The second low pressure system coming in later today will bring another round of precipitation starting this afternoon and ending Saturday night. A few notable differences in this second system vs. the one that will be ending this morning. The second system will be more mature with a closed upper-level low, which will aid in stronger dynamics and synoptic forcing for ascent. The stronger forcing will arrive later this evening and persist into Saturday morning instead of during the day, which should aid in better snowfall accumulations with temperatures below freezing and the sun not being as much of a factor. This system also looks to have a more prominent TROWAL region in the Red River Valley into central and north-central Minnesota, aiding in heavy banded snow potential there where Friday night into Saturday morning snowfall rates could approach 0.5-1" per hour. Onshore flow near Lake Superior and terrain enhancement should aid in bumping up snow totals and rates along the North Shore, as well, in addition to 25-40 mph winds there that could lead to drifting and blowing of snow. Overall, a warmer thermal profile aloft should lead to the snow consistency with this system being wetter and heavier. Farther southeast, a warm nose aloft will introduce more of a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from near Brainerd to the Twin Ports and I-35 corridor where there will be a tighter transition zone between snow to the northwest and predominately freezing rain with lighter snow accumulations to the southeast in NW WI. Minor shifts in the low track and surface temperatures could lead to the snow and freezing rain gradient shifting slightly north or south. Also can't rule out some embedded thunderstorms in northwest Wisconsin this evening due to steeper mid-level lapse rates creating a small, but non- zero amount of instability. This could further increase precipitation rates in NW WI, particularly the ice accumulations as surface temperatures should be near to below freezing across most of the Northland from Friday evening through mid to late Saturday morning. As the surface low tracks northeast into the U.P. of Michigan by Saturday afternoon, colder air will move in aloft and bring and end to the freezing rain potential by late Saturday morning with snow becoming the dominant precipitation type. As the system departs late Saturday, snow will gradually come to an end from west to east Saturday night.

Diving more specifically into snowfall amounts, the best potential for 6-12 inches will be associated with the TROWAL region from around/just north of Brainerd into the Iron Range and for areas northwest of there, with the highest amounts in far north-central MN. The North Shore should also see higher accumulations ranging from 4-8" near Two Harbors to 5-11" farther up the North Shore, with higher amounts in the higher terrain. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for those locations. Snow amounts become a bit more uncertain in east- central MN into the Twin Ports/I-35 corridor given a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Amounts here could range from as low as 1" in southern Pine County to 3-7 inches towards the Twin Ports, but a slight shift in low track and predominant precipitation type Friday night/Saturday morning could shift these amounts slightly north or south. Meanwhile, NW WI areas should range from 1.5-4" in Douglas and Bayfield Counties (highest near Lake Superior) to less than 2 inches in the remainder of NW WI where freezing rain should be the dominant precipitation type until late Saturday morning.

As for freezing rain/ice accumulations, amounts range from a light glaze to 0.10" from Brainerd to the Twin Ports, and 0.10-0.25" in Pine County. More significant ice accumulations are forecast in NW WI, ranging from 0.2-0.4" for most locations away from the immediate Lake Superior shoreline. Some pockets of 0.5" can't be ruled out in north-central Wisconsin, including the higher terrain of northern Sawyer, southern Ashland, most of Iron, and northern Price Counties. These more significant ice accumulations combined with wind gusts of 20-30 mph could lead to broken and falling tree branches and possible power outages.

This system will be hazardous to Easter weekend travel, so please prepare accordingly today and make proper plans.

Sunday - Monday:

We see another period of briefly quieter weather for the first half of Sunday. High temperatures bounce back into the upper 30s to mid 40s with a mix of clouds and sun. However, this is short-lived as a clipper system diving southeast through the area will bring an additional round of light snow to the Northland from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon, generally 2 inches or less. There is some potential for more robust snow showers and isolated snow squalls on Sunday afternoon into early evening and again a lower-end potential for snow squalls Monday afternoon due to steep low-level lapse rates and cyclonic flow aloft with some fairly breezy northwest winds.

Next Week:

High pressure builds in on Tuesday, allowing for mostly sunny skies and a dry weather. Temperatures will start out quite cold early Tuesday morning in the single digits to lower teens in the wake of the clipper, but high temperatures will increase quickly into the mid 30s to lower 40s under the spring sun with lighter winds. The break is once again short-lived as the pattern remains active heading into Tuesday night through Thursday. Another low pressure system will approach the area, with the surface low primarily remaining north of the International Border. This will bring chances for rain and snow showers as highs warm into the mid 40s across our north to low to mid 50s in our south on Wednesday. Winds will shift to the south and east, picking up in intensity by Wednesday afternoon as this mid-week system crosses the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 604 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Snow with the first system is ending across northern Minnesota this morning, with MVFR to IFR visibility in snow at INL for the next couple hours. Otherwise, mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions until late morning, when MVFR ceilings return. A second low pressure system moving through the region later today through Saturday night will bring precipitation in from the south starting on a more isolated to scattered basis later this afternoon into early evening, and then better forcing will bring more widespread precipitation this evening into Saturday. Expect a wintry mix initially, then changing to all snow in north- central and most of northeast Minnesota into Saturday. Wintry mix at BRD/DLH could persist into early Saturday morning. Mainly freezing rain with some rain/snow mixing in northwest Wisconsin until mid Saturday morning before precipitation will change over to mainly snow from west to east as Saturday morning progresses. Looking at periods for LIFR ceilings and IFR to LIFR visibility as the main precipitation band comes in.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Winds are gradually weakening early this morning, with a brief lull this morning that will be followed by another strong low pressure center arriving later today into tonight, bringing renewed east to northeast gales and heavy mixed precipitation this evening into Saturday. A Gale Warning has been issued. Winds weaken and turn westerly on Sunday, then increase again out of the northwest to north on Monday as a clipper system passes through, leading to potential hazardous conditions for smaller vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020- 021. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-019. WI...Ice Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Saturday for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>144. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ141>146. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ142. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ142. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ145>147- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ150.