textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A band of light rain will transition to scattered showers tonight. Additional development is likely west of the initial rain band this evening. The highest rain amounts up to half of an inch are expected in the Brainerd Lakes.

- Rip current risk this evening and again Monday.

- A more widespread soaking rainfall is forecast Monday night through Tuesday.

- Next frost and freeze potential is next next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

SYNOPSIS:

A cutoff low was centered over New England this afternoon with a southwest to northeast oriented upper-level ridge over the Great Lakes. An upper-level trough was located over the Pacific Northwest. A shortwave trough axis stretched from the Dakotas southeastward into northern Iowa as of 20Z. Height falls and isentropic lift to the northeast of the trough axis supported a broad area of light rain from the Ontario/Manitoba border southward across Minnesota into northeast Iowa. A southerly 25-40 knot low-level jet was focused over the northern half of Minnesota supporting large scale ascent. Regional radar mosaic and GOES-East infrared satellite imagery revealed a tightly wound mesoscale low centered between St. Cloud and Alexandria.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:

The meso low will continue to propagate northward across central and north-central Minnesota through this evening. Subsidence on the right-rear flank of the meso low was eroding the precipitation over south-central and southeast Minnesota. Meanwhile farther west in the Red River Valley, scattered showers developed over the past hour. Look for the stratiform rain area to gradually shift eastward through this evening. High-res model guidance supports showers redeveloping west and south of the stratiform rain through this evening, similar to the progression we saw on Thursday. Locally enhanced rainfall is likely in the vicinity of the meso low. Rain amounts of 0.25-0.50 inches remain likely over central and north-central Minnesota with lower totals farther east where dry air was located.

Showers will gradually diminish overnight and Sunday morning as the shortwave trough departs the Northland. Skies are expected to clear gradually through the day from west to east. Temperatures will trend warmer in central and north-central Minnesota with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Farther east temperatures will reach the low to middle 60s where clouds will remain the longest. Shower chances dwindle by late morning and a few sprinkles may persist into the afternoon over northwest Wisconsin and the eastern portion of the Arrowhead.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY:

The blocking cutoff low will persist into the first half of next week while the western trough digs into the Rockies and Plains. Moisture return ahead of the trough will be enhanced by the flow around Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. Tropical moisture will stream northeastward around the southern periphery of the Rockies and into the Plains and western Great Lakes. A broad area of rain is forecast to develop over the Plains Monday and spread into the Northland Monday night and Tuesday. The timing of two distinct surges of tropical moisture remain a core concern with the forecast. As we noted yesterday and Thursday, the Northland appears to be positioned between the best moisture advection on Monday and the moisture advection on Tuesday. While most of the Northland has a good chance of seeing measurable rainfall, the greatest rain amounts will once again be focused over central and north-central Minnesota. More substantial precipitation is forecast over the eastern Dakotas Monday and portions of Iowa and Wisconsin on Tuesday.

Winds over the southwest arm of Lake Superior will turn northeasterly again on Monday and may become strong enough to pose a risk of rip currents. The orientation and magnitude of the surface pressure gradient is less favorable than what we see today, so confidence in hazardous swimming conditions is not as high as we saw today.

LATE NEXT WEEK:

Near to above normal temperatures persist Wednesday with zonal flow expected aloft. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the region Thursday and Friday which will bring a temporary pause to the above normal conditions. Widespread frost is possible Friday night and next Saturday night. There will be a chance of rain with the frontal passage although better chances will be found to our south over the Middle Mississippi River Valley.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Scattered rain showers over the area this evening will gradually move north and diminish over the area overnight into Sunday morning. Conditions range from VFR for KHYR, with MVFR conditions elsewhere. With the lingering moisture, fog is expected to develop at KBRD, and perhaps also KINL, with IFR visibilities. Ceilings are expected to lower overnight, with KINL, KHIB and KBRD lowering to IFR. Ceilings for all sites to gradually improve through the day, returning to VFR between 16z and 21z today. With skies gradually clearing tonight, fog is expected to develop tonight, and have included some MVFR fog at the tail end of the TAF forecast for now.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Northeast winds of 5-15 knots with gusts as high as 20 knots will weaken quickly this evening as an area of rain moves over the waters from the west. Wind and waves will diminish during the evening hours. The strongest winds and highest waves of 2-3 feet will be found near the Twin Ports. Winds will veer to the south and southwest tonight into Sunday, remaining at 10 knots or less with waves of 1 foot or less. Winds veer northeasterly on Monday and then southerly Monday night and southwesterly Tuesday. While winds will strengthen during the day Monday, they should remain less than 15 knots. There is a potential for strong gusts over the South Shore waters and near Grand Portage Tuesday which may warrant a Small Craft Advisory. A cold front will propagate eastward across the lake Thursday which will bring the risk of gusty winds and hazardous conditions. The cool air pouring into the region in the wake of the front will raise the potential for gusty winds during the late morning through evening hours Friday and Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 347 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the forecast period. Light rain over north-central and central Minnesota will continue to shift eastward through this evening. Scattered showers will develop farther west this evening and move through the Northland by late Sunday morning. The greatest rain amounts, around a half inch, are expected in the Brainerd Lakes with lower totals north and east. Rainfall amounts over the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin of less than a tenth of an inch are expected. Most districts could see a wetting rainfall Monday night into Tuesday, with the highest amounts over north-central Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.