textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry Tomorrow with northwest winds and more sunshine.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions Sunday and Monday.

- Warmer temperatures return next week with dry conditions through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Strong west northwest winds continue this afternoon behind an exiting cold front. Cannot rule out a flurry or two where stratus lingers over the Arrowhead, but with rising ceilings, flurries become less likely. A weak short wave rotating through the upper level trough will move across the area tonight, but with limited moisture, do not expect much more than a slight increase in cloud cover.

High pressure brings drier air and clearing skies to the area tomorrow, with north winds relaxing as the pressure gradient weakens. RH values drop below 25 percent for most of the Northland tomorrow afternoon as the center of high pressure arrives from the northwest. Cannot rule out some wind gust to 20mph tomorrow afternoon. With such low RHs, near- critical fire weather conditions could be possible Sunday afternoon. The surface high slides to the southeast Sunday night into Monday, allowing for southerly flow to increase. This will start a warming trend that takes us through much of next week.

Monday afternoon, a clipper will pass to our north, with precipitation remaining over Manitoba and Ontario, with only an increase in cloud cover for the Northland. Southerly winds increase, with breezy gusts of 25-30mph possible during the afternoon. With the combination of slightly higher moisture and cloud cover keeping temperatures in the 40s and 50s, min RH values will be at or above 25 percent for much of the area. With stronger winds though, near- critical fire weather conditions are possible.

Conditions for the Northland remain dry through mid week, with upper level ridging and surface high pressure keeping the storm track well to our north. Highs will be 10 degrees or more above normal Tuesday through Thursday, as highs reach into the 60s to mid 70s for much of the area by Wednesday. With a light northeast breeze over western Lake Superior and cooler water temps, locations along the shoreline will remain in the 50s.

A large closed low rotating off the Pacific Coast will quickly cross the central Rockies Wednesday, with a surface low strengthening across the northern Plains Thursday morning and tracking through the Northland. This brings rain and a few thunderstorms back to the area for the second half of the work week, with rain arriving as early as overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Current guidance shows the better forcing aloft crossing the area Thursday afternoon and evening, allowing for a few thunderstorms. Rainfall totals for the two day period could be as high as 1 inch, which would be much needed as we head into fire weather season.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Stratus continues to slowly shift eastward mid day, with cigs above 3kft now, and only a couple locations still reporting a few flurries. Expect skies to continue to slowly clear through the day, with cig heights rising.

Strong west northwest winds continue, with wind gusts up to 30kts through early evening. Winds start to diminish this evening but remain at 5-10kts overnight. Expect winds to increase from the northwest Sunday morning, with gusts to around 20kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Strong and gusty northwest winds continue through this evening, with wind gusts up to 30 knots. Waves of 3 to 6 feet are expected to continue this afternoon, particularly for the South Shore and the Apostle Islands. Conditions will gradually improve tonight through Sunday night. Winds will back into the south on Monday and increase once again, and conditions may become hazardous for Small Craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Sunday will be quite dry, with minimum RH values dropping into the 20 to 30 percent range over a large portion of the area. With high pressure arriving, winds will be lighter reducing fire weather concerns, but not eliminating them as wind gusts up to 20mph remain possible late Sunday afternoon, mainly over the Arrowhead.

Monday is the day most likely to see near- critical or even critical fire weather conditions as winds increase from the south and surface humidities remain low. Added cloud cover could limit afternoon warming, and keep min RH values at or above 25 percent for most of the area. However, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are possible Monday afternoon.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 143-144-147-148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ140>142-145- 146-150.