textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant, near normal temperatures through next week with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

- Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night, with sporadic precipitation chances this weekend into next week.

- The risk for severe weather is low over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Dry surface high pressure will be in place across northeast Minnesota the rest of today and into Thursday. A cold front will enter northeast Minnesota late Thursday evening and slowly move east across northwest Wisconsin through the day on Friday. Initially, low level moisture is expected to mix out through the afternoon ahead of the front to favor a dry forecast prior to 00Z. Thereafter, as low level moisture recovers, the low level jet modestly increases and a series of mid level impulses propagate along the International Border south of the main wave, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night across northeast Minnesota with the passage of the front. With limited buoyancy, severe weather is not expected.

Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Friday with daytime heating and bit better buoyancy building as the front slowly moves across the area. A few stronger storms with small hail and wind gusts over 40 mph are expected across northwest Wisconsin. However, the overall threat for severe weather is low.

For the rest of the forecast for this weekend and into next week, near zonal flow is favored across the lower 48. This overall large scale flow pattern favors near normal temperatures with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. The main storm track is favored to remain south of the Northland, however, low predictability impulses embedded in the faster flow aloft and daytime heating would present a near daily, sporadic coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms (isolated to scattered coverage). Overall, with limited buoyancy, severe weather is not likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Satellite is showing some healthy cumulus cloud production into the early afternoon which would favor keeping some FEW/SCT050 level clouds through the mixing period, ending around 00z. Winds will breeze to 15-18kt gusts through that time, becoming lighter and variable overnight. Winds return and become stronger by around 15z, with gusts to 20kts as the direction shifts towards 180-200. LAMP guidance suggests FEW250 to SCT250 by the end of the period, with forecast soundings showing just enough saturation and omega to justify throwing some upper level clouds in. No precipitation is expected, with VFR for all locations.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Locally higher winds this afternoon near Grand Portage with gusts to near 20 kts and waves of 1 to 2 feet. Otherwise, light winds this afternoon will become southwest around 10 kts tonight across western Lake Superior. Southwest winds will increase through the day on Thursday sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts to near 20 kts. Higher gusts to near 25 kts near the Twin Ports are possible (50-70 percent chance) and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Thursday will be warm and dry across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Afternoon minimum relative humidity will range from 30-40 percent across northwest Wisconsin the I-35 corridor, and into the Arrowhead of Minnesota, to 40-50 percent further west into north central Minnesota. There is a drier scenario where relative humidity would fall in the upper 20 percent range for northwest Wisconsin and the Arrowhead of Minnesota on Thursday. While not likely, if deeper mixing occurs Thursday afternoon, lower relative humidity would result. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the 80s across the region with southwest winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-23 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.