textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm will affect the Northland this evening and overnight, with accumulating snowfall across much of the Northland, blowing snow with strong winds, and blizzard conditions along the North Shore and the Twin Ports.

- A strong Colorado low may bring a second round of moderate snowfall across our south late Saturday into Sunday.

- Hint of another, weaker system early next week and a warm up late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The Northland is currently bracing for a high-impact, anomalously strong clipper system. While dry air initially delayed the onset of snowfall this afternoon, onset is expected along our western counties within the next couple hours. High- resolution models have trended the surface low on a slightly more southerly track over the last few hours, shifting the heaviest snow and highest blizzard potential south to include the Twin Ports and Carlton County. Southern St. Louis and Carlton County have joined the rest of the North Shore in the Blizzard Warning.

Tonight, the primary threat is intense snowfall combined with high winds. Across the Iron Range, strong forcing aloft and focused frontogenesis will result in snowfall rates of at least 0.75 inches per hour. Along the North Shore, vigorous easterly to southeasterly flow off Lake Superior will lead to significant lake enhancement, where snowfall rates may exceed 2 inches per hour at times. Total accumulations will reach 10 to 15 inches in these areas. South of Highway 2, a mix of rain and snow is expected, which leads to some uncertainty in snow amounts in those areas. In general, however, the mix will keep overall snow totals lower but result in a wet slush.

Winds will be a severe hazard tonight on the south side of the low. Portions of the Brainerd Lakes region can expect northwest gusts up to 60 mph, while gales will occur along the North Shore. These winds, coupled with falling snow, will drop visibilities to near zero. While winds will begin to decrease throughout the day on Friday, they will remain gusty at 25 to 35 mph, maintaining lower visibilities from blowing snow and light wrap around snow showers for much of the day.

As winds switch to the northwest on Friday, lake enhanced snow showers will shift to the South Shore. While the best forcing will have likely departed to the east and snowfall rates won't be nearly as high as the North Shore the night before, an additional 3-5 inches are expected with this enhanced round of snow Friday morning and into the early afternoon.

The region will see a brief reprieve early Saturday before a large Colorado Low moves through the Midwest Saturday night and Sunday. Current model consensus suggests a strong snow band will set up across central Minnesota and central Wisconsin. If the current track persists, southern portions of the Northland could see up to 10 inches of snow. However, any shift to the south will result in significantly less snowfall for our area. A Winter Weather Watch will likely be required for our southern tier of Wisconsin counties once the current system clears the area. Colder air arrives behind this second storm, with wind chills dropping to 20 below zero by Monday morning.

Global models hint at a weaker clipper moving through early next week followed by a warm up as a warm air mass moves over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest in the late week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions continue into this afternoon ahead of a strong clipper system that will bring moderate snow overnight. DLH especially will see the worst conditions this evening with visibilities at a half mile or less for a few hours with a combination of strong easterly to southeasterly winds and high snowfall rates. Winds will be strong out of the east and southeast for DLH, HIB, HYR, and INL and out of the northwest for BRD before changing to the northwest for all terminals. BRD will see the highest wind gusts exceeding 40 kts in the early morning on Friday. Conditions begin to improve Friday morning, though lingering visibility reductions from light snow and blowing snow will continue into early Friday afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Dangerous conditions will peak tonight on Western Lake Superior. Strong easterly flow will produce gales up to 45 knots with isolated storm force gusts possible. Waves will build to 9 to 14 feet, peaking around 16 feet on the North Shore. Heavy snow is also expected along the North Shore overnight along with these easterly gusts. Winds shift to the north and northwest Friday morning, initiating lake-effect snow for the South Shore. Winds will then decrease by Friday night below 20 kts.

Another strong system late next week will bring another round of gales across western Lake Superior throughout the day Sunday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ020-021-037. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for MNZ010>012-018- 019. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ025-026- 035. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ033-034. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for MNZ036-038. WI...Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ001>004. Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Friday for WIZ006. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ007-008. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Friday for WIZ009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140>142. Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143- 144. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ143-144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for LSZ145>148. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for LSZ150. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Friday for LSZ150.