textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Lake effect snow showers today for the South Shore. Portions of Iron and Ashland could see 2-4"

- Scattered snow showers possible again today. Quick bursts of snow will lead to minor accumulations but may briefly reduce visibilities.

- Chilly temperatures Tuesday morning a few degrees either side of zero.

- Next chance of precipitation will be Wednesday with most rain expected but a rain snow mix across northern MN can't be ruled out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

There is some scattered radar echoes across the region this morning as a cold front slowly traverses NW to SE. A Polar air mass is building in behind this front and will be ushering in much cooler temperatures today. Our highs are expected to remain below freezing which is 10-15F cooler then yesterday. With this frontal boundary moving across the region we are seeing some steepening of the low level lapse rates providing some weak instability. This has lead to the aforementioned scattered showery activity. As the colder air has seeped in from the north these showers are now primarily snow. Not expecting much in way of accumulations but the little instability we have to work with could lead to an occasional snow burst that will briefly coat a small area and reduce visibilities.

Through the morning the cold front will continue to sink south with northwesterly winds filtering in behind. Our best snow squall potential would have been along this boundary but timing of the frontal passage will have it likely out of the area before we get the better ingredients from our diurnal cycle. That's not to say the region will be snow free today. Cold air streaming over Lake Superior will promote some LES through the day along the South Shore. Ashland and Iron County will see a couple inches before it clears out overnight. The rest of the region may also see some HCRs develop which will lead to some bursts of snow in the afternoon. Although low confidence in this set up at the moment. The new age of of high res models have quite a bit of dry air working through the model soundings in the afternoon which would suggest a clearing in sky conditions, but some of the legacy models have the more typical diurnal cu look to them. Regardless, overall impact will be minimal as these snow bursts will be short in duration.

Tonight/Tuesday:

Skies quickly clear out as the polar air mass moves overhead. This will lead to a very chilly night with lows in the single digits. Still 5-10F away from record breaking lows but quite unseasonable for this time of year. The surface high pressure drifts off to the east on Tuesday allowing for southerly flow to return to the region. High temperatures will recover back to above freezing.

Midweek:

Activity starts to ramp up once again as we head into the midweek timeframe. A low pressure system that originates from British Columbia will ride the International Border as it tracks east towards Ontario. The warm air advection wing of this system will enter from the southwest late Tuesday and introduce some snow initially. Cold air in place during the overnight period will quickly be replaced with warmer temperatures as the low pressure slides across southern Manitoba drawing in southerly flow. High temps will climb into the 40s and 50s on Wednesday leading to mostly rain and a rain snow mix across our north. Overall, not expecting this system to be very impactful as ensembles are coming into good agreement with keeping the low north of the International Border which will eliminate cold air intrusion and prolific snow production.

Wrap around moisture as the system departs Thursday morning will see cold air returning in from the northwest. This will lead to some light snow showers initially. But we are still projected to warm back up into the 40s on Thursday so any snow that does manage to stick will not last long.

Late week into the Weekend:

The warming trend continues with highs on Friday in the 40s and 50s. By Sunday we may see areas across our south climbing into the 60s. The pattern does look to turn active once again as an upper level trough digs into the desert southwest producing a surface low out of the Northern Rockies. Still quite a lot of spread this far out in the forecast but overall 850 temperature trends continue to increase leading to this system most likely being all rain. We may even introduce some thunderstorms into the mix as the Euro is bringing some low end instability of MLCAPE around 100 J/kg on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front is traversing across the region this morning with gusty winds out of the northwest. Still have some scattered snow showers on radar that could occasionally move over the terminals. Ceilings vary widely ranging from IFR to MVFR to VFR as these showers move through the region. Northwest flow through the day may lead HCRs developing this afternoon if we can maintain some low level moisture. If these do manage to form expect scattered snow showers to persist. Dry air and overtakes the region with skies clearing out this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A cold front is moving south across the Lake this morning with gusty northwest winds following in its wake. Small Craft Advisories are in effect until this afternoon. Quiet conditions are expected through Tuesday with southerly winds increasing Wednesday morning. These winds may lead to building waves on the North Shore. Wednesday night these winds will veer to out of the southwest and increase in speed. Widespread Small Craft Advisories may be needed into Thursday afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>146. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ147- 148-150.