textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Sunday afternoon into the evening for the Minnesota Arrowhead due to gusty winds and low humidity.

- Expect isolated to scattered rain showers for the rest of the day today, though the overall chances of your location seeing rain are relatively small.

- Thunderstorm chances have increased for Monday afternoon and evening across the Northland, with periodic rain chances continuing next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

For the rest of the day, expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with unseasonably cool temperatures only reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s. We have bumped up the chances for precipitation this afternoon, utilizing coverage wording to reflect the isolated to scattered rain showers currently moving across the area. While it is raining out there in spots, the actual chances of any one location getting hit remain fairly small. Gusty west winds have also prompted a Small Craft Advisory for western Lake Superior through this afternoon. Showers will gradually taper off tonight as a cooler air mass settles over the region, dropping low temperatures into the 40s - maybe even into the 30s in the typical cool spots.

Sunday will feature clearing skies and slightly warmer temperatures, but the main story will be the critical fire weather conditions. We have dropped relative humidity values below standard guidance for Sunday afternoon, which combined with gusty northwest winds to 30 mph, has necessitated the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the Minnesota Arrowhead region. While lingering cloud cover may initially slow the drying process, clearing skies from the west should put areas like Lake and St. Louis counties solidly in the threat area. There is a bit of uncertainty regarding the cloud cover retreat as an upper low spins to our northeast. If we do get the clearing, any fires that develop will spread rapidly, so outdoor burning is highly discouraged. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s across the Northland.

As we head into the new work week, Monday will begin with sunshine before our next weather system approaches. We have increased the chances for showers and thunderstorms for Monday afternoon and evening across the area as a quick moving disturbance drops down from Canada. While severe weather is not anticipated at this time, these storms could produce localized heavy downpours and lightning. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate, reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations.

The overall weather pattern through the middle and end of next week will be characterized by continuous northwest flow aloft, resulting in multiple quick moving systems passing through the region. This will bring periodic off and on chances for rain and thunderstorms on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The most widespread precipitation currently looks to target the Wednesday timeframe as a slightly stronger wave moves through the Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the 40s.

By late Thursday into Friday, the broad upper level ridging currently stationed over the western United States may begin to drift eastward. This shift would potentially transition our winds to a more southerly direction, introducing a warm air advection pattern. As a result, we could see a return to more typical, warmer summertime weather and drier conditions heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Mostly VFR conditions will generally prevail across the Northland terminals for the rest of the day, though isolated showers may bring brief localized MVFR ceilings and visibilities, especially at INL. Gusty westerly to northwesterly winds will continue into this evening, with gusts reaching 20 to 30 knots at times before weakening slightly overnight. Skies are expected to clear from west to east heading into Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior until 4 PM this afternoon due to westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots. Wave heights will generally range from 1 to 4 feet. Gusty westerly winds will persist through Sunday, with additional gusts up to 25 knots likely during the late morning and afternoon, which may require further advisories for small craft operations.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Winds will remain westerly and gusty for the rest of the day with speeds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts up to 25 mph. Afternoon relative humidity will stay above 40 percent today with isolated showers. Drier conditions arrive Sunday, prompting a Red Flag Warning for the Minnesota Arrowhead. Relative humidity values should fall into the 23 to 35 percent range, coupled with northwest winds gusting 20 to 30 mph though the big question is how fast the cloud cover retreats to the east. Monday will see similar humidity, but winds will be lighter with decent chances for precipitation in the form of thunderstorms.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ011-012- 019-020. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 140>148-150.