textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today. Rainfall totals generally less than a quarter of an inch, but locally higher amounts possible.

- Colder weather moves in Sunday into Monday.

- An active weather pattern will bring several rain chances next week and possibly a little snow Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers are passing through tonight, and they will continue up the North Shore and Northwest Wisconsin through this morning. A cold front and upper-level trough aloft will trigger a line of showers and possibly some embedded non-severe thunderstorms through today. Potential instability is not much...maybe a few hundred J/kg, and any storms should be elevated. Strong storms are not expected. Rainfall amounts will likely be less than a quarter of an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible with any thunderstorms.

On Sunday, dry weather is still in the forecast with RH values falling into the 25-35% range. Winds are not expected to be exceptionally strong with gusts to around 15 mph for most places, except to around 20 mph in the Arrowhead. Fire weather conditions may be slightly elevated.

All other aspects of the forecast remain relatively unchanged with this update. Please see the previous discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Fog lingers in areas near Lake Superior this afternoon. Dense This fog is expected to clear as a warm front makes its way northeast. Temperatures for the rest of the day will push into the upper 60s and 70s inland, though the shoreline will stay slightly cooler under the fog and cloud cover. A warm front will move through today, shifting winds to the south to southwest and increasing gusts to up to 30 mph tonight. Rain showers will also follow the warm front in the late afternoon and overnight hours. Most will see rain accumulations of less then 0.1".

Saturday, the associated low pressure system tracking east will also bring a cold front west to east across our area. This boundary will provide another round of light rain showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder. Strong southerly flow continues ahead of the front will allow highs to climb into the 60s and lower 70s once again, marking our last warm day for the foreseeable future. Rain chances will quickly taper off from west to east Saturday night.

A much cooler and more seasonable air mass settles in on Sunday behind the departing cold front. Highs will only reach the 40s and 50s under mostly sunny skies as surface high pressure builds in over the area. RHs dip back down into the 25-35% range Sunday, but with lower winds, no fire weather concerns are anticipated. The cooler air mass will allow Sunday night temperatures to drop below freezing for most inland locations.

The extended forecast for Monday through Thursday features a return to an active weather pattern. An upper level low is forecast to move east out of the central Rockies early next week, bringing widespread precipitation chances to the region from Monday into Wednesday. With the cooler air mass firmly in place, some snow could mix in on the northern fringes of the system, though this is currently expected to be minor conversational snow with small accumulations, if any. High temperatures will largely remain in the 40s and 50s through Thursday with overnight lows near or below freezing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR ceilings this morning. Expect LLWS to continue for another 3 to 5 hours with continuing warm air advection. Then, as winds gradually shift more westerly ahead of a cold front, LLWS is expected to dissipate. An area of showers is expected to develop with the cold front. Weak instability could produce a few rumbles of thunder, and ceilings may fall to MVFR/IFR briefly as showers pass through. Expect breezy winds through the day, then decreasing gradually and becoming light as winds switch to northwest this evening behind the cold front.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Winds are expected to strengthen from the south today. The gustiest winds will be largely limited to the South Shore, where gusts from 20-30 kt are expected. Parts of the North Shore will get affected by some breezy conditions as well, and around Grand Marais to Grand Portage, waves up to 4-5 ft are expected through today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect today into this evening. A line of showers with perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder are expected with a cold front that will pass through late this afternoon into this evening. As the cold front passes through, winds will switch direction to west to northwesterly Saturday night and lessen in speed. Winds pick up a bit from the west to southwest on Sunday. Gusts to around or slightly over 20 kt are possible from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Winds will switch back to northeasterly on Monday. With high pressure settling in around the Canadian Border, winds are not expected to be overly strong with gusts to 15-20 kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Rain and isolated thunderstorms are expected today through this evening. For most places, rainfall amounts under a quarter inch are expected, though locally higher amounts are possible. Gusty winds are expected today with direction changing from south to west as a cold front passes through later today.

Dry weather is expected Sunday with min RH falling to 25-35%. Winds will be largely light from the northwest, but a bit breezy in northeast Minnesota, especially the Arrowhead, with gusts 15-20 mph. Fire weather conditions may be slightly elevated Sunday, though much cooler air will be making its way in.

Off and on rain chances are expected this week. Wetting rains around a quarter inch will be possible several times. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 144>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.