textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Low stratus and fog will lift with sunrise this morning.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive this evening across the west, with more widespread rainfall arriving tomorrow through Tuesday morning.

- Low end chance of strong to severe weather for northern Minnesota Monday, with more widespread potential on Tuesday.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Mid and upper level ridge axis sits to our west this morning, with weak ripples in northwesterly flow providing lift for a few isolated showers. Coverage is less than 15% and expect most of the area to remain dry. Where a shower does pass, sprinkles or a brief period of light rain is possible. Seeing areas of low clouds and fog develop as mid level clouds clear and surface temps cool. Do not expect widespread dense fog, but cigs at or below 300ft and visibilities below 1 mile are possible through sunrise.

For today, although cigs improve, expect mostly cloudy skies for much of the area. This could keep temperatures lower than expected, despite weak low level warm advection. Instabilities build to our west, where clusters of storms will develop and spread toward north central MN this evening. Better shear values remain to our west with only weak CAPE over the Northland. Some of this activity will like spread into the area this evening, and will show increasing chances of showers and storms across the west, then spreading eastward overnight. Severe storms are not expected with this initial round of convection.

Monday into Tuesday continues to look wet with widespread rainfall and thunderstorms. PW values are above the 90th percentile, and forecast QPF reflects that, with totals of 0.50-1.50 inch for the Sunday thru Tuesday time period. Additionally, increasing shear and instability with dewpoints well into the 60s, could lead to strong to severe storms Monday and Tuesday, before a cold front pushes through the area.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Persistent stratus this afternoon is keeping temperatures on the cool side, only rising so far into the upper 60s to low 70s. Sites that manage to clear off will warm quickly within a short time, like has happened for Brainerd and the Phillips areas. We have been monitoring a cluster of showers and isolated storms which moved out of North Dakota this morning, and have been slowly decaying as they move east. Between the stratus and a general lack of instability or shear, this trend will continue this afternoon. In fact, doubt there will be much more than a few sprinkles for parts of Itasca and northern Cass counties before these decay completely by late afternoon. What stratus does not break up this afternoon is likely to expand in coverage once again tonight, with some associated fog. Places that clear out this evening are more likely to develop locally dense fog before the stratus slides in over it. Areas under clouds will have better visibility, as happened this morning.

Our main upper level pattern keeps that ridge axis sitting just west of the forecast area tonight, and with some weak ripples moving through that flow, we may get another cluster of showers/storms to affect the western CWA late tonight into Sunday. Forcing is rather weak and we are going to have to wait and see on details before increasing pops much over what we have now.

Sunday and Sunday night presents a bit of a conundrum, as we may have a repeat of today, with stratus lingering over the area to keep temperatures on the cool side. However, if we can break out of the clouds, it will be warm and humid with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will spread in from west to east during the daytime into the evening, with some stronger ones possible for north central Minnesota. Storms will again weaken and decrease in coverage as they move east into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin.

The active weather pattern continues into next week as a strong, cut off upper level low pressure system crosses the northern Rockies, pushing a surface low from where it develops over eastern Montana early Monday northeast into northern Manitoba by Tuesday night, continuing northeast through Wednesday. This system appears almost fall-like with the tightly wound surface low and deep upper level low. This system should bring us a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday afternoon into Monday night, with additional chances for precipitation continuing Tuesday into Wednesday as slow moving frontal features move across the area. It appears the risk for severe storms Monday should stay to our west, but we may get some stronger storms Monday night. We will have the potential for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening with the best potential for the overlap of sufficient instability and shear.

The latter half of the work week will become cooler with highs on Wednesday potentially staying in the 60s to low 70s with clouds and a few showers. Blustery westerly winds will develop for Wednesday in the wake of the front passage, with gusts reaching 30mph or stronger. Conditions settle down through the remainder of the work week, with slowly moderating temperatures and a slight chance of lingering showers.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Areas of mid level and high clouds around the Northland tonight, with a few light showers pushing southward across north central MN. Showers should not have any impact on forecast terminals, other than brief, very light rain.

Expect stratus and fog again tonight, with development already occurring at INL. Have included reduced vis and cigs at all terminals, with a short period of IFR/LIFR conditions around sunrise. Stratus and fog lift, with improving conditions through Sunday morning as winds increase from the southeast at 5-8kts.

Chances for showers and storms increase after 07/00Z, with most of the activity remaining west of forecast terminals until after 07/06Z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Northeast winds continue today, with winds strongest at the head of lake where gusts to 15kts are possible this afternoon. More active weather returns tonight into early next week, with several opportunities for showers and storms. In addition, east to southeast winds increase Monday and Monday evening, with gusts to 25kts along portions of the North Shore. Gale force gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected, possibly up to 35 knots are along the North Shore on Tuesday from the south. Winds switch to northwest on Wednesday and increase still more before diminishing again for the rest of the week. Gale Watches, and then warning and advisories will likely be needed for at least one day early to mid next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will largely remain above 45 percent through the weekend into early next week as abundant moisture stays in place. Southeast to south winds will generally remain under 15 mph today. A wetter pattern arrives tonight through Tuesday, with widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms expected. Rainfall amounts of over 1 inch of rainfall is possible along and north of the Iron Range. Winds will increase significantly next week, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph on land starting Monday, increasing to a maximum on Wednesday behind a cold front. Expect southeasterly winds Monday to shift to southerly Tuesday morning, with a secondary wind shift to northwesterly on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.