textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate snowfall continues this morning in northwest Wisconsin. Snowfall is expected to taper off this morning into the early afternoon.

- Strong northerly winds will continue this morning into the early afternoon, especially along the North Shore. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for southern Cook County with gusts up to 60 mph possible this morning.

- A fast moving Clipper will bring a chance for accumulating snow on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. North-central Minnesota is currently forecast to have the best chance for seeing 1-3" of snow.

- A warming trend begins on Wednesday and persists into the weekend. Temperatures are likely to increase above freezing and then drop below freezing overnight for most locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong low pressure continues to bring heavy accumulating snow to the Upper Midwest early this morning as the center of the low moves through Michiana. Locally in our neck of the woods, the main impact from this system is lingering light to moderate snowfall occurring underneath the trowal associated with this low. With snowfall rates starting to ease early this morning, opted to cancel the Blizzard Warning early for all counties in the CWA and replace the lingering Blizzard Warnings with Winter Weather Advisories. Highest additional snow amounts of 5-8" are expected around the higher elevations of the Penokee Range as lake and orographically enhanced snowfall occurs. Expect lesser amounts elsewhere today in northwest Wisconsin.

In addition to the ongoing snowfall, the other main impact in our neck of the woods from the strong low pressure moving through the Midwest is strong northerly winds. High pressure building over the Great Plains has developed a tight pressure gradient over the CWA this morning. Northerly wind gusts of 20-35 mph are expected to persist this morning into the early afternoon for much of the area. Along the North Shore, downslope winds have been observed early this morning as cold air advection has been ongoing, with Grand Marais recently reporting wind gusts as high as 51 mph. These strong winds in the lee of the North Shore terrain ridge are forecast to continue this morning, with most members of the HREF and REFS ensembles showing the potential for gusts in excess of 40 mph. A High Wind Warning remains in effect for southern Cook County while a Wind Advisory remains in effect in southern Lake County. Expect winds to ease this afternoon and evening as the strong low pressure continues to move farther downstream.

Attention turns towards the next chance for precipitation arriving via a Clipper on Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. This Clipper is expected to develop in northern Alberta tonight and then quickly dive south into the Upper Mississippi River Valley by Tuesday night, being propagated by a subtle shortwave. With the CWA being well within the cold sector of this system, precipitation type will largely be snow. Global ensembles have most members around the 1-3" range for snow totals from this system, with highest amounts being found in north-central Minnesota. The potential for accumulations in excess of 3" is unlikely (30% chance) from this system, especially given that the Clipper will be quickly propagating through the CWA.

One thing to keep an eye on with the Tuesday into Wednesday Clipper is the potential for freezing drizzle early Wednesday morning along the I-35 corridor towards the North Shore. Model soundings indicate that a loss of ice aloft combined with low-level saturation could create a period of several hours prior to the Wednesday morning commute where a glaze of ice could occur.

Following the departure of the mid-week Clipper, the jet stream is likely to shift farther north and bring a warming trend to the CWA. Starting Wednesday and persisting into the weekend will likely be a diurnal pattern of above freezing temps during the day followed by sub-freezing temps at night for most locations; Great maple syrup making weather! A fairly active pattern continues in the latter half of the week with global models indicating several Clippers moving through Manitoba and Ontario, delivering glancing blows of precipitation to the CWA. Precipitation type from these Clippers will depend on what time of day/night these systems pass through.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

An area of stratus has been descending into northeast Minnesota early this morning with cig heights varying between MVFR and VFR under this stratus. Sporadic flurries are being observed within this stratus, with visibility remaining VFR. Over northwest Wisconsin, MVFR cigs continue as low pressure continues to bring snow to the central and eastern portion of the state. The trend through the period will be a transition to VFR conditions across the region by this evening as high pressure builds. Breezy northerly winds will also be easing by tonight due to building high pressure.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gales and heavy freezing spray are expected to continue for much of this morning, along with storm force winds from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Wave heights over 10 ft are expected today as well, especially along the South Shore. Winds will gradually decrease this evening into tonight with Small Craft Advisories likely needed once the Gale and Storm Warnings end. Winds will become lighter on Tuesday as high pressure passes by to the south.

This lull in breezy winds will be short lived though as south to southwest winds increase on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a Clipper passes through the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed, especially along the North Shore above Taconite Harbor.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ020. High Wind Warning until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ021. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ003-009. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ004. MARINE...Storm Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>142-147-148-150. Gale Warning until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141. Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142-147-148- 150. Wind Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ142. Gale Warning until noon CDT today for LSZ143>146. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until noon CDT today for LSZ143>146.