textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snowfall is expected today into Saturday, mainly in the tip of the Arrowhead and in northern Iron County, with light lake effect lingering into Sunday night for portions of the South Shore snowbelt. Additional accumulations are expected to be less than 3 inches.

- Near to slightly below average temperatures this weekend into Monday. Near-zero to sub-zero wind chills are expected each night, coldest Sunday night into Monday morning.

- A Clipper system brings accumulating snow chances Monday night into Tuesday, with the best potential along and north of US-2.

- An active weather pattern continues mid-next week into next weekend, with several additional snow chances for portions of the Northland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Rest of Today - Monday:

Current observations and satellite imagery depict a vertically stacked low pressure system currently over the central Great Lakes with an inverted trough extending into northwest Ontario and Manitoba. This pattern has kept most of the snowfall east of the Northland, though north-central Wisconsin and the tip of the Arrowhead have been seeing light snow throughout the day and see it continue into tonight before the band of snow moves just to the east.

Additionally, partly to mostly cloudy skies have set up across the Northland this afternoon. With the lower cloud layer nestled in the dendritic growth zone, there has been periodic reports of flurries/light snow in north-central and northeast Minnesota. Expect these flurry chances to persist through at least early evening and possibly into tonight. A light dusting to no additional accumulations expected with these flurries.

Through Saturday morning expect additional snowfall accumulations in the tip of the Arrowhead and northern Iron County to amount to a trace to 2" or so. Some weak shortwave trough energy will also be moving through the Northland on Saturday, so can't rule out additional light snow/flurries for the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin on Saturday. Saturday snow accumulations should be a trace to less than an inch for those locations.

Northwest flow will also bring in cooler temperatures for this weekend into Monday, with highs in the teens to low/mid 20s and single digit lows for most, though single digits below zero lows are expected in northeast Minnesota Monday morning. Wind chills each night/morning should bottom out in the single digits below zero for most locations, though Sunday night and Monday morning wind chills in the single digits to teens below zero are expected.

These cooler temperatures and northwest winds will also allow light lake-effect snow to start up again Saturday PM into Sunday night, though fairly shallow atmospheric moisture should keep snowfall rates on the lighter side, with snowfall rates of a trace to around 1 inch every 6 hours for the South Shore snowbelt, highest in northern Iron County. Given the slower rate of expected accumulation, a Winter Weather Advisory has not been issued.

Late Monday - Tuesday:

A potent, quick-moving Alberta Clipper is poised to impact the Northland Monday night through Tuesday. While this system will have moisture origins from an atmospheric river on the Pacific Coast, PWAT/moisture levels don't appear to be more than average for late July (PWATs around 0.2-0.35"). Global ensemble low tracks still show some timing and north-south track differences for central or northern Minnesota into Wisconsin Monday night through Tuesday that still give a fairly broad range in potential snow totals, but potential is fairly good (50-90%) in most of the Northland seeing at least some light snowfall during this timeframe. The best potential for moderate accumulating snowfall is along and north of US Hwy 2, where 24-hour snowfall probabilities of 2" or more of snow are 30-60%, highest along the North Shore where southeast to southerly surface winds should aid in some lake and terrain enhancement. Probabilities for higher amounts are lower but not zero, with probabilities of 6" or more at 15-30% for the North Shore, 5-15% north of US Hwy 2, and 5% or less along/south of US Hwy 2. If these snowfall trends hold, far north-central Minnesota, the Arrowhead, and parts of the South Shore may need a Winter Weather Advisory Monday night into Tuesday.

Wednesday - Next Weekend:

An active weather pattern continues for mid-next week into next weekend, with several additional chances for snow as Clipper systems periodically move through the Upper Midwest. The first system would be quick on the heels of the early week Clipper, generally moving through the Upper Midwest in the Wednesday to early Thursday timeframe. There is more uncertainty regarding the timing and track of this system, with the favored low pressure track mainly south of the Northland, though our southern CWA stands the best chance to get accumulating snowfall (20-30% chance). Global models show additional troughs/clippers moving through the Upper Midwest late next week into next weekend, but confidence is low regarding exact timing and precipitation potential/amounts with those systems at this time. However, there is medium confidence in a warming trend to above normal temperatures in the Northland during the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

BKN to OVC MVFR ceilings for most of the area through the period, though this afternoon will have some pockets of FEW to SCT MVFR cloud bases and VFR conditions. While most snowfall will stay east of the area in the U.P. of Michigan and eastern Wisconsin, occasional flurries and light snow showers should persist in north-central and northeast Minnesota this afternoon, perhaps lingering into the evening, but with minimal to no accumulations for most locations. Breezy northwest winds today drop off this evening and tonight, then increase again on Saturday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Low pressure moving into the lower Great Lakes will keep a pressure gradient going across the North Shore into this evening. North to northwesterly winds will be gusting under 15 knots for most nearshore zones today through tonight, with the exception of gusts to around 25 kt for Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage into this evening, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Winds remain northwest to northerly this weekend, weakening below 20 kt for Saturday before strengthening once again Saturday evening through early Monday morning. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed for Saturday evening into Monday Morning for much of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140- 141.