textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front moving through today will bring strong west to northwest winds gusting 40 to 60 mph, a potential flash freeze, and a chance for snow squalls in the Borderlands.

- A High Wind Warning is in effect for southern Cook County, with Wind Advisories in effect for portions of the Northland today into this evening.

- After a brief shot of Arctic air this weekend, temperatures will gradually warm up heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Relatively quiet conditions are occurring early this morning across the CWA. Weak isentropic ascent along a stationary front within the 900-800mb layer across the Arrowhead region has been producing scattered flurries and light snow showers. Accumulation will be fairly minimal at up to a few tenths of an inch by around sunrise this morning.

The main concern today into tonight will be a strong cold front moving through the CWA, bringing strong west to northwest winds, flash freeze potential, and a chance for snow squalls in the Borderlands. Latest sfc analysis reveals a strong low pressure currently located over Manitoba, with the expectation that this low will be propagating into northern Ontario by this afternoon as a stout shortwave quickly moves east. While the low pressure center will remain north of the CWA in Canada, a strong cold front is expected to sweep through today. Timing for the arrival of this front will be by mid-morning in the far northwestern CWA and by the mid afternoon for the far eastern CWA.

Ahead of this cold front, temperatures will be very warm around midday, with highs expected to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. As winds shift from the west to northwest following this cold frontal passage, temperatures will be quickly dropping this afternoon to below freezing. Since surfaces will likely be wet from some snowmelt, these rapidly falling temperatures later today could lead to a flash freeze and slippery surfaces.

In addition to the flash freeze potential, strong west to northwest winds are expected to develop after the cold frontal passage. A strong pressure gradient is expected over the CWA today, with 3 hour pressure tendencies this afternoon and early evening rapidly rising in excess of 7 mb. Sustained winds across a large portion of the area, especially in the Arrowhead, will be around 15 to 30 mph, with gusts of 45 to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for areas along and north of US-2 in Minnesota and Douglas and Bayfield Counties in northwest Wisconsin. In southern Cook County, strong cold air advection paired with the strong pressure gradient is very likely (70% chance) to lead to wind gusts in excess of 50 mph as katabatic winds occur from the higher terrain of the Sawtooth Mountains. A High Wind Warning is in effect for southern Cook County today through this evening due to wind gusts to around 60 mph.

The final potential hazard from this strong cold front today will be snow squalls this afternoon into the evening. Moderately steep low- level lapse rates in the 0-2km layer of 6.5-7 degC/km will lead to low-level MUCAPE increasing up to 50 J/kg by this afternoon for areas north of the Iron Range. In addition to this instability, strong isallobaric wind developing from the aforementioned strong pressure rises is expected to occur. The resulting area of strong 925mb FGEN combined with moderately favorable low-level saturation will create the potential for snow squalls in the Borderlands this afternoon and into the evening. Composite reflectivity from the CAMs keep the majority of the snow squall potential north of the border, where dynamic forcing and moisture will be more favorable. However, snow squalls reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less will still be possible for the far northern CWA today.

After the active period of weather today into this evening, a much quieter pattern is anticipated to settle into the CWA for this weekend into next week as high pressure builds. Chilly temps are expected this weekend as Arctic air briefly descends into the area, with lows on Sunday morning in the negative single digits to negative teens. Wind chills Sunday morning will be as low as -22 degrees in the tip of the Arrowhead. This shot of Arctic air won't be lingering though, as a more zonal pattern aloft into next week brings a warming trend. There continue to be hints of a low pressure system tapping into Gulf moisture moving into the Upper Midwest late this upcoming week. However, it's still way too early for specifics given the variability of solutions in the global models.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Localized LIFR fog has been observed early this morning along the North Shore, impacting KDLH. This fog is expected to improve within the next hour as westerly winds increase and bring drier air into the Twin Ports. The main concern through the TAF period will be strong west to northwest winds developing later today following a cold frontal passage. There is also a 30% chance for snow squalls impacting KINL, which could lead to IFR or lower visibility. Besides cig and visibility reductions from snow squalls in the Borderlands and fog early this morning, conditions will largely be VFR through the period as high pressure builds behind the cold front.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 328 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Conditions hazardous to small craft begin this morning under increasingly gusty southwesterly winds. Dangerous conditions develop this afternoon on Western Lake Superior. West to northwest winds will increase to gale-force for most nearshore waters by this afternoon following a strong cold frontal passage. Storm-force gusts to 50 kt are expected from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage.

These conditions taper in coverage and magnitude late tonight with ramp down Small Craft Advisories anticipated to be needed after the warnings expire late today. Northwest winds over the western waters last into Saturday daytime, but are forecast to be around or less than 20 knots. Heavy freezing spray will rapidly accumulate on vessels Friday evening through Saturday morning as Arctic air arrives. Waves will build to 6 to 11 feet by this evening, most likely around the Apostle Islands.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for MNZ012-019-020-037. Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ010-011-018-026. High Wind Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for MNZ021. WI...Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for WIZ001-002. MARINE...Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for LSZ140-141. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140-141-150. Gale Warning from noon today to midnight CST tonight for LSZ142>146-150. Wind Advisory from noon today to midnight CST tonight for LSZ142.