textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler today with highs in the 30s and 40s with a few scattered snow showers in the morning hours.

- An active pattern continues this week with oscillating warm and cool temperatures, with light liquid and frozen precipitation chances sprinkled through the forecast. Maybe something more organized Wed/Thu next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Current Conditions:

A cold front has pushed out of the region as of this morning with northerly winds streaming in once again. The trailing precipitation associated with a ribbon of 700mb FGEN has largely exited the region. However, radar and surface observations reveal some lingering HCRs over north central MN likely developing below the stratus deck as cold air advection leads to a shallow layer of instability. This cold air also looks to be producing some anthropogenic snow off off the Iron Range.

Today:

The HCRs that develop last night will be tapering off in the morning but we are still keeping an eye on Lake Superior for some potential lake convergence bands to develop. With the colder air temperatures flowing across the lake once again some lake effect showers will be possible along the South Shore. Wind direction still seems to be a contested issue among the guidance with models varying by 30 to 50 degrees. CAMs have certainly backed off their initial aggressive signal for precipitation in the Twin Ports and the South Shore. We will maintain at least some flurries through the morning hours. High pressure builds in from the northwest in the afternoon helping to clear the skies out.

Early Next Week:

Monday, high pressure will shuffle to the east through the day with return flow out of the south helping to warm temperatures back into the upper 40s. Overnight, a low pressure will move across central Manitoba into Ontario with its associated cold front dipping down through the Northland. We will still have a warm nose in the lower level to contend with so an area of mixed precipitation will likely be at play. Snow will be favored farther north and rain farther south. The front is not expected to stall with precipitation exiting Tuesday morning. Total accumulations at this time are minimal for both rain and snow.

Midweek Outlook:

A warm front looks to advance into the Upper Midwest setting up a baroclinic zone over the region leading to continued precipitation chances. The best chances look to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level jet strengthens and moves across the Canadian Prairies. This extra divergence aloft will help promote the deepening of a low pressure system at the surface. Placement of these synoptic features are still highly contested among the ensembles so the overall impact of this system at this time remains uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Predominantly MVFR conditions remain draped across the Northland, though they are slowly, slowly sliding south, and I expect KHIB, KDLH and KINL to break out to VFR by 21z this afternoon. It will take a little longer for the clearing line to reach KBRD and KHYR, though have been a bit more optimistic given the upstream clouds may lift to low end VFR later this afternoon. A ridge of high pressure to build in this afternoon and evening, leading to widespread VFR conditions for the remainder of the terminals once they do clear for the remainder of the TAF period. Visibilities should remain VFR through the period, with winds gradually dropping below 10kts this afternoon and dropping below light and variable after 03z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Gusty northeast winds will start to taper off later this morning but wave height will be slow to subside on the South Shore. Small Craft Advisories from Sand Island over to Saxon Harbor have been extended through 7PM. Once these conditions subside the Lake should be quiet until early Wednesday when northeasterly flow ramps up once again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147- 148-150.