textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Non-severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

- Forecast rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches for Wednesday into Thursday south of US Hwy 2.

UPDATE

Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Mainly clear skies and light and variable winds are in place across the Northland this morning with some cloud cover across the tip of the Arrowhead. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Forecast soundings show CAPE under 500 J/kg with minimal shear, so any storms that do develop are not expected to be strong or severe. Storms will likely be vertical in structure and pulsey, so individual cells will likely not last long. Forecast soundings show dry air near the surface, which would be good for mixing down stronger winds aloft, if there were any. Other than some small hail, brief downpours will be the main threat with this activity. Looking ahead to midweek, a system will pass by to the south and likely bring showers and storms to part of the region. A sharp gradient in precipitation looks to develop along the northern edge of the system will dry air intrusion from the north. This gradient looks to set up somewhere over the Northland, but models disagree on where.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the rest of the day, clouds stuck around a little longer this morning which has trended RH up just a smidge across the Northland. However, the HRRR still points to sub 25 percent values over northeast/north-central Minnesota this afternoon. These critically low humidity values below 25% are combining with gusty northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, keeping the Red Flag Warning active across portions of the Arrowhead region. High temperatures will be unseasonably cool, only reaching the upper 60s. Tonight, the gusty winds will diminish as a cooler air mass settles over the region, allowing low temperatures to drop comfortably into the 40s.

Sunshine will kick off the start of the new work week, but clouds will quickly increase as a fast-moving disturbance drops down from Canada. Monday afternoon looks stormy, but nothing severe is expected as these showers and non-severe thunderstorms track across the region. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate ahead of this system, reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations.

The overall weather pattern through the middle and end of next week will be characterized by continuous northwest flow aloft. This setup will bring multiple quick-moving systems passing through our area, providing periodic chances for rain and thunderstorms. Based on the latest guidance, we kept higher rainfall amounts in for Wed into Thu across the southern 1/3 of our forecast area. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

By late Thursday into Friday, broad upper level ridging currently stationed over the western United States may begin to drift eastward. This shift would potentially transition our winds to a more southerly direction, introducing a warm air advection pattern. As a result, we could see a return to more typical, warmer summertime weather and drier conditions heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the Northland this morning and will persist into this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop by early afternoon in northern areas and work south through the afternoon. Storms are not expected to be strong or severe. After sunset, MVFR showers will linger into the early morning hours with low stratus and MVFR fog developing. Confidence on the coverage and extent of this low fog and stratus is low as it will depend on areas getting rainfall prior. Winds will be gusty once again from the west with gusts to 15 to 20 knots through early evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Southwesterly winds persist today at 5 to 15 knots gusting to 20 to 25 knots. This highest gusts will be along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and waves of 2 to 5 feet will be possible in this same area, highest away from shore. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and linger for tonight, but no strong or severe storms are expected. A cold front will move through tonight and turn winds northeasterly for a brief period before weak high pressure leads to light and variable winds for Tuesday at around 10 knots or less. Wednesday will see winds become northeasterly at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots at the head of the lake. This may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft near the Twin Ports.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 313 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into tonight as a cold front works through the region. While coverage is not expected to be high, areas seeing rainfall may see brief, heavy downpours, but widespread wetting rainfall is not expected. Winds today will be westerly at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. Chances for showers and storms linger Tuesday morning across northwest Wisconsin with dry conditions across northeastern Minnesota. Afternoon RH values will remain above 30% with northwesterly winds at 5 to 15 knots. Better chances for rainfall arrive on Wednesday, especially across the southern half of the region.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.