textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and mainly dry weather pattern through Monday.

- More notable system moving through the Upper Midwest mid next week may bring a plowable snow, freezing rain and/or rain Tuesday PM into Wednesday for the Northland.

- If any accumulating snow does occur next week, expect a much more wet/heavy snowfall than the last month or so of light and drier clipper snowfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure currently centered over the Northland is providing sunny skies and quiet conditions today. Temperatures will begin a trend today that lasts into early next week of being in the mid 30s to low 40s for daytime highs. These very warm temperatures and possible melting off the current snowpack under a low-level stable layer each night is forecast to bring fog. The most likely area tonight is over northern Minnesota and the stateline counties of far western Wisconsin. Similar conditions are expected again Saturday morning, but may expand even further eastward into the rest of northwest Wisconsin.

A weak clipper system moves through far northern Ontario Sunday night. This clipper is likely to lack any notable moisture to keep only around a 10 percent chance of very light snowfall for the Arrowhead and Borderlands Sunday night into Monday.

Our primary focus is on a potent Colorado Low expected to emerge from the Rockies and track toward the Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Warm air and deep moisture will surge northward ahead of this system starting Tuesday morning. Initial precipitation would likely begin as a messy mix of combination of rain, freezing rain and snow Tuesday PM before transitioning to a bit colder airmass favoring more snowfall precip type at some point Wednesday when as the main low pressure center moves through to the south. Because the exact track of the low is still being determined, the transition line between rain and heavy snow remains uncertain. However, the high moisture content of this system suggests the potential for plowable snow and travel disruptions across the Northland Tuesday night through Wednesday.

If any snowfall is allowed to accumulate mid next week, the setup shown in deterministic and ensemble global guidance supports the forecast of a more wet snowfall Tuesday PM into Wednesday. The snow to liquid ratio is very likely to be much lower (warm residual airmass already in place and being advected in still and a high liquid content available from this system as just two environmental indicators) with any snowfall that does fall mid- next week as the Colorado Low moves through, especially compared to the clipper systems we have observed mainly this last month. Many of those clippers have had observed snow to liquid ratios of 20-30:1 (as in if 20 inches of snow had fallen then that would equal out to 1 inch of liquid equivalent precipitation) at the NWS Duluth Forecast Office. It is too early to provide exact values for the system next week, but expect a more general range of snow to liquid ratios of 5-12:1 if any snowfall is observed. That lower-end being favored more towards the onset of precipitation and the higher-end being favored towards the end of the system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions and light winds prevail this TAF period. The exception is some late patchy fog expected 06-15Z where a few terminals may see LIFR ceilings for a few hours and MVFR/IFR visibility

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1040 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Expect benign conditions across the nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior for the next 48 hours as high pressure moves through. Winds will shift southwesterly at 10 to 15 knots tonight with some gusts approaching 20 knots near Grand Portage. Waves will remain 1 foot or less through Friday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.