textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will gradually be decreasing through the day.

- Flood Advisory remains in effect for the North Shore and Cook County as several rivers are still running high or near minor flood stages.

- Slight chance of rain and a few snowflakes (20-30%) Wednesday.

- Mainly drier conditions Thursday through the weekend. Fire weather concerns may become elevated late this week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Rest of Today - Tonight:

Plenty of sunshine to be seen across much of the Northland early this afternoon as the low pressure system has now moved into Ontario and high pressure moves into the region. Cyclonic northwest flow is introducing scattered to broken diurnal cumulus this afternoon that should expand in extent across most of the Northland by late afternoon before diminishing towards sunset. While a few high-resolution models still try to kick off a few light showers late this afternoon and evening in the Arrowhead with weak shortwave energy grazing the international border, general subsidence in addition to deeper mixed lower atmosphere air should keep precipitation chances minimal to none. Afternoon highs top out in the upper 40s to mid 50s today, warmest south.

Winds are also gusty out of the northwest this afternoon but will gradually decrease in intensity towards sunset and become light tonight into early Wednesday.

Wednesday:

A slightly deeper mid/upper-level trough dives southeast out of Manitoba and through NE MN and NW WI on Wednesday. There will be a little bit of lift and mid-level moisture associated with this feature which should support isolated to widely scattered shower development (10-30% PoPs/coverage) starting in the mid to late morning and peaking in coverage during the afternoon with daytime heating. However, model atmospheric profiles still show drier, well-mixed low-level air within a few thousand feet above the ground that could evaporate out some of the precipitation before it reaches the ground. This activity could be in the form of a light rain/few snowflakes mix in the Borderlands and Arrowhead, while the remainder of the Northland should be warm enough for precipitation to remain as all rain. No snow accumulations expected. Precipitation amounts of a trace to a few hundredths are possible, again mainly in the Arrowhead. Areas near Grand Marais could see a spotty 0.10" of rain.

Thursday - Friday:

Looking at a fairly cool and dry end to the work week as Wednesday's shortwave becomes a closed low over or just east of the eastern Great Lakes and retrogrades, which will keep the Northland in a northwest to northerly flow pattern aloft and in high pressure at the surface, keeping us dry with high temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s (warmest south and west) and below-freezing lows. We may not see completely clear out skies depending on how far west the low pressure retrogrades, so some cloud cover mixed in the forecast could put a limit on just how far we can dry out and how low afternoon relative humidities can reach late this week. With mainly lighter winds late week, any potential for fire weather concerns developing would be tied to how low relative humidities can get and how much vegetation can dry out following the rain from earlier this week.

This Weekend:

Still in a northwest flow pattern through the weekend but mid- level height rises and warmer 850 mb temperatures should push surface temperatures several degrees warmer back into the 50s to low 60s. However, there is still potential for the retrograding low to still be stuck in place near or just northeast of the Great Lakes and could still play a factor on cloud cover and the extent of how dry conditions can get and how low relative humidities can get with regards to fire weather concerns.

Early Next Week:

Low confidence in the mid and upper-level atmospheric patterns into early next week due to poor agreement among global ensemble model systems regarding whether the retrograding low finally gets kicked out of Ontario/Quebec. Though, the Upper Midwest does generally appear to remain in some sort of northwest flow pattern aloft through early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A VFR stratocu deck developed this afternoon and will persist into the evening hours, but cigs wil remain above 6kft. Mid to high level cigs could remain over portions of the area overnight, as a weak shortwave moves through the region.

Another weak shortwave arrives Wednesday, and while cigs could lower, heights should remain at VFR. Can't rule out isolated to widely scattered showers (10-30% chance) late Wednesday morning and afternoon, with the best chances east of a line from INL to HYR. Some snow flurries could mix in with the rain in the Arrowhead, but accumulating snow is not expected.

Gusty northwest winds will weaken this evening, becoming 5kts or less overnight. Additional northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 kt redevelop late Wednesday morning and afternoon with daytime heating.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

The Gale Warning has expired for the North Shore, but northwest winds of 20 to 25 kt gradually diminish into early this evening before dropping below Small Craft Advisory levels. A more tame pattern sets up for the remainder of the week into weekend in western Lake Superior with prevailing northwest winds--though variable at times--with gusts remaining under 20 kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Limited fire weather concerns the remainder of today and Wednesday despite well-mixed lower atmosphere profiles with some diurnal clouds developing this afternoon and additional scattered to broken cloud cover developing on Wednesday for much of the Northland. Min afternoon RH could still dip down into the 30-40% range both days (40-50% in the Arrowhead and near the International Border), with wind gusts weakening towards sunset today and peaking at 13-18 mph late Wednesday morning and afternoon. There is also a 10-30% chance for isolated to scattered rain showers--a mix of rain and a few snowflakes near the International Border and in the Arrowhead--from mid to late Wednesday morning through afternoon in much of the Northland. Much of this will have difficulty reaching the ground, with liquid precipitation accumulations of less than 0.10". Snow is not expected to accumulate.

Drier conditions will start to become more prevalent once again in the latter half of the week, especially for the weekend as precipitation chances remain minimal at around 10% or less. There is still some question about how much cloud cover we could see each day late this week and weekend, but well-mixed lower atmosphere profiles should favor min RH each afternoon dipping to the low 30s percent and possibly even into the 20s percent.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148-150.