textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions will keep near-critical fire weather conditions in place through early evening.

- Rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder tonight into Tuesday morning (60-80%) and again Thursday into Friday (40-60%).

- Briefly cooler tomorrow in spots before warming into the weekend with highs in the 70s to low 80s by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

High pressure was in control across the Northland early this afternoon. Low pressure was located in southern Saskatchewan with a warm front extending into eastern Montana, western and southern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska, and into northern Missouri. This low will be responsible for rain chances across the region later tonight into Tuesday. With the high centered over Lake Superior, southerly winds on the western periphery of the high were starting to increase across across Minnesota with isolated gusts to 15 to 20 mph. RH values were in the 20-30% range with the lowest values west of US 53 in Minnesota. With the increased winds and better mixing, values may drop below 20% in the Brainerd Lakes area yet this afternoon leading to near- critical fire weather conditions.

The low pressure currently across southern Saskatchewan will drop southeastward tonight across North Dakota and into northern Minnesota Tuesday morning. This will spread showers across the Northland tonight into Tuesday morning with the best chances (60-80%) along and east of US 53/I-35. A few embedded rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out with some weak MUCAPE in place and some small hail will also be possible with low freezing levels. Most of the shower activity will move east of the region by midday, but wraparound showers may linger across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin into the evening hours. Highs Tuesday will be quite variable with upper 40s and lower 50s along the international border to the upper 60s to near 70 in our southern zones.

High pressure will move through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday bringing dry conditions and highs ranging from the upper 50s in eastern areas to near 70 in western areas. The upper ridge moves through on Thursday with rainfall chances returning late Thursday into Friday as another low develops across the northern High Plains and moves northeastward into northwestern Ontario Friday night. This will bring a cold front through the Northland Friday. Depending on the timing of the front, breezy winds and dry conditions may bring fire weather conditions to the region Friday afternoon. Highs Thursday will be in the 60s and 70s with cooler conditions along the North Shore before warming into the 70s and lower 80s by Friday with 60s near the lake. Rainfall chances for late Thursday into Friday will be around 40-60%, which is an increase from the previous package. Highs will remain in the 60s and 70s for the weekend with generally dry conditions expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist into this evening. Showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will move through overnight into Tuesday morning. Not expecting much in terms of impacts from the showers to visibilities or ceilings. As an occluded front moves through Tuesday morning, ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR to IFR with some areas of patchy fog developing as well. Winds will increase tonight along with a low level jet moving into the region. This will lead to a period of low-level wind shear at all terminals aside from INL. Most shower activity moves east of the terminals by mid-morning Tuesday, but a few wraparound showers may linger into the afternoon. Surface winds will be southerly overnight before turning northwesterly behind the front Tuesday morning. Gusts to 55 to 25 knots are expected with a few isolated higher gusts to 30 knots at HYR.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 423 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Northeasterly flow funneling into the Twin Ports this evening is producing some increased winds and higher waves at the head of the Lake. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for this short time period.

Winds becoming northerly to northwesterly through the day Tuesday as a front works through. Speeds will be around 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots near the Twin Ports and near Grand Portage during the afternoon and evening hours. The southeasterly winds ahead of the front may lead to waves of 2 to 4 feet along parts of the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Winds then remain northerly for Wednesday at 5 to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Dry conditions will persist this afternoon with minimum relative humidity values falling into the low 20s with isolated upper teens. Winds will generally be out of the south at 15 mph or less, but daytime mixing could bring localized gusts up to 20 mph. Rain chances increase tonight into Tuesday. Only light accumulations are expected, but a few spots could see a couple tenths of an inch from moderate rain under storms. Dry conditions return for Wednesday with afternoon RH values below 35%.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CDT tonight for LSZ144-145.