textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A small system will bring light rain showers along and south of the Iron Range tonight into early Wednesday. Light accumulations expected.

- Cold air over Lake Superior will lead to some lake effect rain to mix to snow showers Wednesday into Thursday. Snow accumulations up to 1.5" are possible in spots.

- A high pressure moves in for the end of the weekend followed by another warm up next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

For the rest of the day, expect mild and dry conditions across the Northland with temperatures topping out in the 50s under mostly sunny skies. A fast-moving system will still move through tonight accompanied by some light precipitation. Temperatures within this band will remain above freezing, so all rain is the precipitation type expected. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally a tenth of an inch or less, favoring areas along and south of the Iron Range.

Temperatures will take a nose dive after the system passes tomorrow, with highs only in the upper 30s and low 40s. As cold air advection continues, lake effect precipitation expected to linger after the band passes will slowly transition from rain, to a mix, to eventually all snow Wednesday night into Thursday. The most likely areas to see this transition will be along the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin, where northerly winds will funnel colder air over the warmer waters of Lake Superior. Any snow that falls Wednesday into Thursday is expected to melt on most surfaces, but may accumulate on elevated surfaces. Snow totals have decreased slightly, with most accumulations at 1.5" or less across the South Shore snow belt. However, any snow that manages to accumulate will not last long as temperatures climb back into the mid 30s during the day. Lake effect snow is expected to dissipate Thursday night into Friday, though some flurries are possible on and off throughout the weekend as cold air advection continues over Lake Superior. Elsewhere across the region, Thursday and Friday will be mainly dry and chilly with overnight lows dropping into the 20s.

By the weekend, upper level ridging will begin to build eastward from the Plains. The Northland will see quiet weather with temperatures gradually modifying into the 40s by Sunday. High pressure moves over the area early next week, and southerly flow will cause temperatures to climb back into the 50s for more above normal temperatures before more chances for precipitation in the middle of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A weak system will move through the region tonight into Wednesday morning bringing low chances for showers. Dry air near the surface will limit much of this activity reaching the ground at first. Precipitation is expected to be light enough that VSBYs remain VFR for the most part, although a few brief dips to MVFR cannot be ruled out in any heavier showers. MVFR ceilings arrive as the rain ends and linger into late morning before returning to VFR. HYR will likely continue to see these MVFR ceilings into the afternoon. Additional light convective showers will be possible during the afternoon, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds will be light and variable tonight into Wednesday morning before becoming gusty out of the northwest in the afternoon with gusts to 15 to 20 knots at DLH, HIB and BRD.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

For the rest of the day, west to southwest winds around 5 to 15 knots will keep waves 2 feet or less. A cold front will pass through tonight bringing rain mainly along the South Shore and a wind shift to the north for Wednesday. Winds will increase significantly Wednesday night into Thursday with northeast gusts to 25 knots and waves building to 4 to 6 feet, occasionally 7 feet, especially for the Outer Apostle Islands and Saxon Harbor. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. Cold air being transported over Lake Superior may lead to some light rain to mix to snow Wednesday into Thursday as well. Accumulations will be light.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Relative humidity values have dropped significantly into the 25 to 40 percent range where temperatures climbed near 60 this afternoon with west winds around 5 to 15 mph. A quick round of rain is expected tonight as a quick system moves across the region. Any rain accumulations are expected to be light - less than a tenth of an inch. Minimum humidity values will hover between 50 and 70 percent on Wednesday and Thursday as much colder air filters in on northerly winds gusting 10 to 20 mph. Lake effect rain/mix/snow will impact the South Shore late- week into the weekend, mainly in Ashland and Iron counties. Meanwhile, the rest of the region remains dry for the weekend and the entire area will be dry into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.