textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures are expected this week, trending slightly cooler on Friday into Saturday.

- There is a low chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow, with most locations likely to largely remain dry.

- A better chance for more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday.

UPDATE

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Relatively quiet conditions are occurring early this morning, despite the radar showing scattered showers across the CWA. The 00z upper air sounding from INL reveals a low-level dry layer below 700mb, which CAMs show persisting through the early morning. Therefore, the echoes appearing from the KDLH radar early this morning are expected to produce little to no precipitation at the surface. Despite this low-level dry layer, isolated patches of morning fog will be occurring in north-central Minnesota and potentially northwest Wisconsin.

Following the early morning fog, today is still on track to see mostly sunny skies as a weak 500mb shortwave tracks south of the CWA and northwest flow aloft occurs. These northwest winds aloft are expected to bring elevated wildfire smoke across the CWA today, which will be giving the sky a hazy appearance. Both the RRFS and HRRR smoke models indicate minimal near sfc smoke across the area today.

The pattern remains fairly benign on Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure is still on track to build in on Thursday. CAMs are showing a fair amount of disagreement over the potential for showers, maybe a non-severe thunderstorm or two, on Wednesday as weak 500mb disturbances propagate through. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, largely kept conditions dry for most on Wednesday. Temperatures around mid to late week will be seasonable with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to 50s.

Still looking at the next best chance for widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms to be Friday night into Saturday as a more dynamically forced low pressure propagates into the Upper Midwest. This low pressure is still on track to depart downstream on Saturday night, ushering in decreasing cloud cover on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the rest of the day, pleasant conditions will prevail across the Northland under mostly sunny skies. Elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead may cause hazy skies at times. As we head into tonight, cloud cover will gradually increase across the region. A weak passing disturbance will bring a slight chance of rain showers and isolated storms after midnight (no severe weather expected). However, precipitation probability for tonight is capped at thirty percent as incoming moisture battles dry air in place over the area, resulting in little to no accumulation.

On Tuesday, mostly sunny skies will return for much of the day with only a lingering slight chance of morning showers. Weather disturbances diving through the persistent northwest flow aloft will bring another chance for showers and non-severe storms Tuesday night. Recent guidance indicates that showers and storms Tuesday night into Wednesday have taken a more southerly track. Uncertainty in the placement of convection, shower and thunderstorm chances for Tuesday night are also capped at thirty percent. Furthermore, as these weak features continue to battle the ambient dry airmass over our region, very little rainfall accumulation is expected.

Heading into Wednesday, partly sunny conditions are expected to prevail. With the bulk of the upper-level energy shifting south of the Northland, only scattered rain showers and a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms remain in the forecast. High pressure will then build into the Upper Midwest for Thursday, providing quiet, drier weather and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies across the entire area.

Looking toward the end of the week, comfortable mid-August weather will continue on Friday with partly sunny skies. A stronger low-pressure system is forecast to approach the area Friday night into Saturday, bringing a more widespread chance for rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Cloud cover will increase Friday night with rain chances peaking on Saturday. As the system moves east Saturday night, precipitation will taper off, leading to partly sunny skies on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Conditions have largely been VFR early this morning, with the exception being patchy IFR fog in north-central Minnesota. Scattered showers have been appearing on radar, but little to no precipitation is reaching the surface due to low-level dry air. Patchy IFR fog will continue to be possible early this morning in KHIB and KHYR, expected to dissipate after sunrise. VFR conditions with light winds is expected today into tonight, with wildfire smoke aloft creating hazy-appearing skies.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light and variable winds are expected today through tomorrow with wind gusts remaining under 10 knots and waves being under 1 foot. No marine headlines are expected over the next 72 hours. Expect a hazy appearance to the sky today as wildfire smoke aloft moves over western Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Scattered showers appearing on radar early this morning are largely not reaching the surface due to a layer of dry air in the low- levels. Today is expected to see hazy skies as elevated wildfire smoke moves over the area, with min RH this afternoon as low as 40%. Winds are expected to be light and variable today into tomorrow with seasonable high temps in the mid 70s to low 80s. As high pressure builds late this week, moderately dry min RH as low as 35% moves in on Thursday and Friday. Despite this moderately dry afternoon min RH, RH recovery overnight is expected to remain excellent. The next best chance for widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms arrives Friday night into Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.