textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Arrowhead, Koochiching, Itasca, and the northern 2/3 of St. Louis county for 2 to 4 inches of snow. Around 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected elsewhere. This round of snow will fall this evening through early Wednesday morning.

- More snow is expected Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday with potential for widespread accumulating snow and difficult travel possible for the Tuesday afternoon and early Wednesday morning commute. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for southern Cass to Burnett County, and to an Advisory for the remaining watch counties, generally along and south of US-2.

- Additional light snow episodes are possible late-week into next weekend along with cold air and below-zero temperatures likely at night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Headline Changes: Two separate clippers will bring snow to the Northland to start the week. The first arriving this evening, with snow accumulations of 1 to 4 inches, mainly across north central MN and Arrowhead. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from Koochiching and Itasca counties eastward through the Arrowhead, through 3AM Tuesday.

The second clipper arrives tomorrow afternoon, and will pack a bigger punch, with 5-6 inches possible along a corridor from Southern Cass to Burnett county. Locally higher amounts up to 8 inches are possible. These counties have been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Elsewhere, 3-5 inches is possible as far north as northern Cass to southern St. Louis county, and all other NW Wisconsin counties. These counties have been upgraded to an Winter Weather Advisory. Elsewhere, lower amounts are expected.

Tonight's Clipper: Starting to see heavier radar returns crossing the ND/MN state line, with vis reductions on area obs, indicating heavier snowfall now falling across the Red River Valley. Southerly flow ahead of the clipper will result in lake effect snow along the North Shore this afternoon and early evening. These should not result in much accumulation, but could make for slippery roads along the North Shore. The greater impact will come with heavier snow associated with the clipper currently moving through the Red River Valley, and expected to cross into the Northland by 5-6pm. This band will quickly push eastward this evening, with most of the snowfall east of the Arrowhead and northwest WI before sunrise Tuesday. Heavy snowfall rates are possible, with 0.5-1 inch per hour possible given steep lapse rates aloft and strong synoptic lift under the shortwave. It will likely only snow for 1-3 hours, with quick accumulations of 2-4inches. Maintained the current Winter Weather Advisory, even through there was a slight decrease in total accumulations, due to high snowfall rates.

As the clipper exits to the east, winds do become west to northwest, but diminish rather quickly. Have included a brief period of lake effect snow on the South Shore early Tuesday morning.

Tuesday's Clipper: A brief break in precipitation is expected Tuesday morning, before the next clipper moves into the region. This clipper will be more robust, dynamically, with a stronger surface low passing to our southwest and pulling more moisture from the Pacific Northwest across the Upper Midwest. Lapse rates and high moisture content support another event with high snowfall rates of 1+ inch per hour. There has been a southern shift both with the best moisture and forcing, keeping the highest snow band south of US-2, and closer to the Brainerd Lakes region eastward across the I-35 corridor near Pine City. Could have 4-6inches in that corridor, with up to 8 inches locally. With the southern shift, amounts further north decreased, with 3-5 inches along and south of US-2. Further north, across the BWCA and Arrowhead, less than 2 inches is expected.

Most impacts from this clipper will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening, during the evening commute. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Warning from southern Cass to Burnett County, where the heavier band is expected. The remaining counties in the watch have been upgraded to an Advisory.

Midweek through the Weekend: As northwesterly flow develops Wednesday, weak cyclonic forcing could lead to light snow showers continuing through the day, with further enhancement along the South Shore. High pressure arrives Wednesday night, bringing an end to the showers, but with a surge of colder air that keeps highs in the teens Thursday, and lows below zero. Another clipper moves through the northern Plains Thursday night into Friday, with limited accumulations for the Northland. This system does bring another surge of cold air southward for the weekend, with highs around 0 degrees Saturday and lows in the -10F to -20F range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Widespread cloud cover is now lowering ahead of an approaching clipper, with MVFR cigs now at BRD, INL, and HIB. Through the afternoon, expect flurries at times, before heavier snowfall spreads from west to east this evening. Most likely time for impacts at area forecast terminals is between 09/00Z and 09/06Z, with cig reductions to IFR and vis to less than 2 miles as heavier snowfall moves through the region. South winds this afternoon will gust up to 20kts, and turn to the southwest as the clipper passes tonight. As snowfall ends early Tuesday morning, winds will diminish with slight improvement in cigs.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 221 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching clipper this evening, and be hazardous to smaller vessels through tonight. Snow will spread eastward over the water this evening which will reduce visibility to less than 1/2 mile at times. Winds quickly veer northwest after midnight tonight and will weaken Tuesday morning.

Another fast-moving clipper will pass to the south of the lake Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will back northeasterly and strengthen Tuesday evening and will become hazardous for small craft once again. Gales are most likely Tuesday night and Wednesday morning between Silver Bay and Grand Portage. There is about a 20 to 40 percent chance of gales to at least 35 knots during that time. A Gale Watch is now in effect for that time period. Winds will gradually back northwesterly by Wednesday afternoon and will gradually diminish.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012- 018>020-026. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ021. Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ025-035-037. Winter Storm Warning from noon Tuesday to 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ033-034-036-038. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ001>004-007>009. Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM Tuesday to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ006. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-140>148- 150. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for LSZ140>142.