textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A large winter system will impact the region this evening through Thursday night with heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, and mixed precipitation all possible. Strong northeasterly winds off Lake Superior will lead to blowing snow and gales on the lake.

- A second storm will impact the region for Friday into Saturday with another round of heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, and mixed precipitation all possible. Travel impacts are likely with both systems.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Largely quiet conditions today. Surface high pressure retreats farther east across Ontario with mostly cloudy skies becoming completely overcast. Northeasterly flow along Lake Superior has led to some light snow showers developing over the North Shore and are projected to slide down into the Twin Ports later this morning. A light dusting of snow will be possible but flow will switch to out of the east by late morning with drier air moving over the area shutting down the process. Later this afternoon, some of the high res guidance is suggesting some snow showers. However, soundings show a pretty significant dry slot up through 600 mb so we have opted to pull back PoPs quite a bit and delay the main onset of the winter storm into the evening hours.

1st Winter Storm:

Moisture profiles start to saturate through the column as an upper level wave moves off the Rockies Wednesday evening. Snow will gradually spread southwest to northeast through the overnight hours. The surface low that develops is offset to the southeast of the upper level wave leading to more diffuse synoptic forcing which will work against producing heavier snowfall rates. Timing of the overall system has been delayed a bit due to both the low track and the amount of dry air in place on Wednesday. Our heaviest snowfall rates will arrive during the daytime hours on Thursday as the surface low tracks across IA and into WI. This current track will also lead to a warm nose moving across NW WI reducing snow totals and increasing some ice production. Most of the region has been upgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. While modeled snowfall totals are flirting with warning level snow amounts, these do not take into account the higher sun angle for April and the compaction we can expect from snowfall on warmer surfaces. As such we expect measurable amounts of snow to be closer to the advisory amounts. The exception to this is along the North Shore where strong winds off of Lake Superior will boost snowfall rates a bit more and may lead to some reduced visibilities, so a Winter Storm Warning was issued instead. Pine is the other problem county, with the prominent warm nose going over that sector of the state there is concern for some greater ice accumulations, confidence is not high enough to go with an Ice Storm Warning but a Winter Storm Warning seemed appropriate given the mixed precipitation expected. Some of these counties may need to be upgraded depending on how the low track trends, but given our high temperatures for the day will be flirting with above freezing and that we don't have the strongest forcing in place to lead to significant snowfall rates, an advisory seems the most appropriate at this juncture.

2nd Winter Storm:

Our first system departs Friday morning with a brief reprieve in the action before the 2nd system starts to bring another round of precipitation Friday afternoon. Not quite a rinse and repeat of the first system, but there are quite a lot similarities once again. With snow being favored for MN and a warm nose impacting most of NW WI. One of the major differences is that this second system looks to be a stronger upper level low as opposed to an open wave which is leading to increased synoptic forcing. These better dynamics look to arrive in the overnight hours and persist through the morning hours of Saturday which will favor better snowfall generation as surface temperatures will be below freezing. This set up also looks to have a TROWAL set up which may lead to some banded snow developing across the Red River Valley and into northern MN. Snow probabilities have shifted slightly to the northwest with this forecast package and have increased. Still looking at high probability of 4" across our northwest with a transition zone of a wintry mix through the Twin Ports and the Brainerd Lakes Region. Over in NW WI warm air aloft with freezing overnight temperatures are looking more favorable for ice accumulations greater than 0.10" By the afternoon NW WI will largely be above freezing with rain being favored for a time, but as the system pulls off to the east cold air overtakes the whole region with snow lingering into Saturday night.

Sunday - Monday:

Another brief lull in the action for Sunday with highs recovering back into the 40s. But the fun doesn't stop there. A quick moving clipper slides in from the north on Monday and will provide another quick burst of snow. Not nearly as impactful as these Colorado Lows, but may give the region a half inch of snow with the Arrowhead seeing around an inch.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Predominately VFR stratus affecting most terminals through the current overnight hours, though has shifted south of INL. Expect MVFR ceilings for much of the morning with this stratus deck hanging around longest at HYR. MVFR ceilings and possibly some light snow showers/flurries also stream in off of Lake Superior this morning at DLH around to shortly after sunrise (30% chance) due to east winds off the Lake. MVFR ceilings may briefly improve for DLH during the afternoon, but could hang around all day as well. A low pressure system approaches the area later today, with some snow potential and MVFR conditions developing by the late afternoon and evening for BRD, with IFR ceilings possible by late evening. Chances for snow in the evening are lower at DLH/HIB/HYR due to dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere that will need to saturate first. PROB30 groups have been included at these terminals. Wind gusts become gusty at DLH this morning and remaining terminals starting around midday as the surface pressure gradient increases ahead of the approaching low pressure system.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Quite an active pattern going forward with northeast winds increasing this afternoon warranting Small Craft Advisories. Overnight a large system will start to impact the Upper Midwest leading to a wintry mix and wind further increasing to gales Thursday morning. Gales only briefly diminish Friday morning, but another large system is right on the heels of the first brining more messy weather to Lake Superior. This will also induce more gales Friday evening, primarily on the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ020-021. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for MNZ010>012-018-019-026-037-038. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Friday for MNZ025-033>036. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for WIZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for WIZ006>008. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for WIZ009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 7 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for LSZ141>147-150. Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for LSZ142. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ143>146-150. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ147. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT Friday for LSZ148.