textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly quiet weather is expected into early next week with unseasonably warm temperatures. Areas of fog will be the primary concern again tonight into Sunday morning.

- A very light wintry mix of snow, rain, and freezing rain is possible for far northern Minnesota Sunday evening and Sunday night.

- An impactful winter system will move into the Upper Midwest late Tuesday and continue through early Thursday. This system will be bringing an initial wintry mix and then the potential for moderate to heavy, wet snowfall. Travel impacts are likely to occur.

- The active weather pattern continues late this upcoming week with additional chances for snowfall and more seasonal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Rest of Today - Sunday Morning:

Sunny skies are present across the majority of the Northland this afternoon alongside light southwesterly winds on the backside of surface high pressure centered over Lake Huron. Unusually warm temperatures in the 40s have already developed early this afternoon, with high temperatures for some locations expected to approach near 50F! Several record daily high temperatures are already in jeopardy as most record highs for today are in the mid to upper 40s. Already bumped up the high temperature forecast for this afternoon a few degrees to account for the overachieving temperatures.

A weak shortwave trough will be moving through the Northland tonight into early Sunday morning, but lacking in sufficient moisture in the lower portions of the atmosphere to produce any noticeable precipitation at the ground. The main impact from this system will be fog development this evening into Sunday morning (70-80% chance) for much of the Northland along with areas of dense fog potential. There still remains a decent amount of uncertainty regarding how widespread dense fog will get, so have held off on any Dense Fog Advisory issuance for now. Areas with the best potential for dense fog would be in north-central and northeast Minnesota.

Sunday - Early Tuesday:

The pattern remains largely quiet with above average temperatures persisting for Sunday through early in the upcoming week. Have bumped up forecast high temperatures several degrees again for Sunday, particularly in north-central Minnesota where some southerly return flow on the backside of departing high pressure should pump temperatures into the 40s once again. Some portions of the Arrowhead and the South Shore may see temperatures top out in the mid-30s to low 40s, however.

We have increased precipitation potential and QPF amounts in the forecast for far northern Minnesota Sunday evening into very early Monday morning due to additional shortwave trough energy/low-level frontogenesis. The main surface low pressure will pass well to our north in northwestern Ontario, but it should bring a weak surface trough/cold front through the Northland. Model soundings favor saturation reaching the ground in far northern Minnesota, mainly north of the Iron Range, but an area of drier air in the low-levels hanging around for the remainder of the area. Precipitation is favored to start as primarily rain or a rain/snow mix very late Sunday afternoon and evening when surface temperatures will mainly be above freezing. However as temperatures cool below freezing later in the evening and overnight, forecast thermal profiles show signals for a mix of very light snow and possibly some very light freezing rain. Accumulations appear minimal, ranging from a trace to a few tenths of an inch of snow and a trace to very light glaze of ice in the Borderlands.

Temperatures remain mild into early next week with overnight lows in the upper teens to 20s and highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s for Monday and Tuesday. Expect dry conditions for Monday into early Tuesday, as well.

Impactful Winter System Late Tuesday - Early Thursday:

The focus of the forecast shifts to a more active pattern starting towards the middle of next week. Global ensemble guidance depicts a deep trough over the Pacific Coast/western CONUS early in the week ejecting a negatively-tilted shortwave trough across the northern Rockies daytime Tuesday and into the Upper Midwest by late Tuesday. Latest 12Z runs of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble continue to come into slightly more agreement with one another regarding the track timing and north-south placement of the surface low pressure centers associated with the ejecting trough moving into the Upper Midwest Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. With that said, there is still some uncertainty in the exact timing and north-south track of this system. The general trend in the surface low track clustering has been slightly northward over the last few model runs, as well. This system should have access to plenty of moisture with moisture origins from the Pacific near Baja California and western Gulf moisture fetch. ECMWF EFI/SOT highlight the Northland for a signal of both unusually high QPF and snow potential relative to this time of year. In fact, the NAEFS/global model forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.7" are above the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year. The surface low pressure should also be fairly deep, with the NAEFS forecast showing MSLP with the surface low approaching near the minimum of the CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of year. Strong synoptic forcing for ascent with a large deformation band associated with this system should bring widespread precipitation to the Northland with this system from Tuesday evening through early Thursday.

The exact track of the surface low pressure center will play a big factor in how far north the warm front and associated warm sector of this system gets into the Northland, with more northerly tracks favoring more rain mixing in with the snow late Tuesday and Wednesday while more southerly tracks would keep precipitation primarily snow for the Northland. The latest forecast still favors snow as the primary precipitation type for most of the Northland, though potential for a wintry mix or primarily rain increases towards the Brainerd Lakes into inland northwest Wisconsin where a warm nose aloft may be present and surface temperatures will be near or above freezing. Regardless, deep saturation and strong forcing for ascent should drive moderate to high precipitation rates with this system, with the highest precipitation rates currently forecast for the Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning timeframe. Additionally, very strong east-northeasterly winds off of Lake Superior late Tuesday and Wednesday should aid in terrain enhancement and at least some lake-enhancement to precipitation for the North Shore into Duluth. More details to be fleshed out as ensembles come into more agreement with this system.

Once the surface low passes through late Wednesday/Wednesday night, the precipitation type should transition to all snow as we get into the cold sector of the low, with precipitation gradually coming to an end on Thursday. The latest run of the NBM shows 50-90% probabilities of >2" of snow for all but inland northwest Wisconsin and southern Price County in Minnesota, where the probabilities are 30-50%. Highest probabilities are along the North Shore. Probabilities for >6" of snow are 35-60% for much of north-central and northeast Minnesota, the Twin Ports, and portions of the South Shore and 60-80% for the North Shore; if trends hold, these are the would most likely see the need for a Winter Storm Watch. Areas from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin only have 10-30% chances for >6" of snow due to higher potential for rain or a wintry mix late Tuesday and Wednesday. A long tail into probabilities for even higher snowfall totals than 6-8" remains along the North Shore due terrain- and Lake Superior-enhancements to precipitation rates. All-in-all, the late Tuesday to daytime Thursday timeframe is likely to see travel impacts of some fashion, so the next couple days are the time to adjust travel plans accordingly.

Active Weather Continuing Late Next Week:

The main deep trough over the western CONUS is then progged to move east into the Rockies by Thursday night/early Friday and then into the central CONUS Friday into Saturday. Ensemble spread is still much wider regarding surface low tracks with this late week system, but does tend to keep the surface low tracks across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Great Lakes. The more northerly tracks could bring an additional round of snowfall to primarily northwest Wisconsin Thursday night through Friday, but farther south tracks could keep snow out of the Northland entirely. Confidence remains low regarding snowfall potential and amounts for late this coming week. With that said confidence is medium to high that we will see temperatures cool off to closer to normal values starting late next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Similar to the last two nights, the latest model trends have really backed off on the fog signal overnight. Temps were really warm again and we had RH's a bit higher today in the mid 30s in places. In this package, I trended most TAFs more towards VFR rather than IFR; however, I do think that the northwest and western parts of the area have a better shot at dense fog overnight and there's supposed to be a bit of moisture advection though that has shown that the last two nights too and it didn't really pan out. The fog signal for tonight is stronger than the last two nights though. Winds remain light and variable. There has been a little fog at the head of Lake Superior though I do not expect that to make its way up the hill to the airport but may brush the eastern portions of the TAF doughnut.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 247 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Mainly light winds and minimal waves are forecast through Monday night. Winds quickly ramp up out of the east-northeast on Tuesday, becoming very strong late Tuesday PM through Wednesday. There is an 80% chance for gale-force wind gusts Tuesday night through Wednesday evening as a strong winter storm moves through the Upper Midwest. The potential for Storm-Forece wind gusts is also 30% from Tuesday night until midday Wednesday, strongest along the North Shore. Should these strong wind forecasts continue to hold consistent, a Gale Watch will likely be needed and possibly a Storm Watch if wind forecasts continue to strengthen.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.