textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds continue into tonight and scattered sprinkles/showers into this evening as the low moves east.

- Additional scattered light rain and snow showers possible late Tuesday morning through early evening. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Colder than average temperatures are expected through much of the work week. Coldest lows will be in the 20s for much of the week.

- Slight to no chances for precipitation for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Cumulus clouds have formed on the back side of the cold front that moved through this morning. This is leading to scattered showers across the Iron Range and Borderlands this afternoon. These showers should end this evening as the sun begins to set. In addition to the precipitation, strong winds this afternoon are gusting 25-40 mph across the area behind the cold front. Strong cold air advection will continue to push into the region tonight, dropping overnight lows into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

Tuesday will remain quite chilly and will run 15 to 20 degrees below normal for early May. High temperatures will struggle to break out of the 40s across most of the region. Northwest winds will remain breezy but much lighter than Monday, generally gusting around 20 to 25 mph. Skies will be partly sunny during the day and sky cover will decrease overnight, leading to another cold night dropping into the 20s.

The persistent northwest flow aloft keeps our region in a chilly and relatively dry pattern for Wednesday. Expect daytime highs to remain in the middle to upper 40s. We should see a good amount of sunshine early in the day before clouds begin to increase by Wednesday evening ahead of our next passing weather system.

A weak disturbance dropping into the Northland will bring our next widespread chance for light precipitation on Thursday. There is a slight chance (~10%) of a few snow showers mixing in early Thursday morning before transitioning to scattered rain showers (20% chance) by the afternoon. Precipitation amounts won't amount to much more than a trace due to lingering dry air.

Friday will begin a drying and warming trend as a high pressure ridge builds toward the Upper Midwest. Highs will push back into the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies. By the weekend, temperatures will increase further, reaching the 60s across the area with dry conditions expected to persist through Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR stratocumulus continue through sunset, but all terminals become VFR later this evening. Sprinkles/light rain/light snow showers will continue through early this evening with cold air advection. Strong winds up to 20-25 kts are expected across all terminals through early evening, then decrease overnight. Additional diurnal cumulus and scattered light rain/snow showers develop for mid/late Tuesday morning through early evening. PROB30 groups have been included for most terminals when shower potential will be at its peak. Occasional MVFR conditions could be seen with showers. The best potential for MVFR conditions with the showers are at INL/HIB. Northwest wind gusts up to around 20 kt redevelop for mid/late Tuesday morning through early evening with daytime heating and mixing.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Strong west to northwest winds will range from 15 to 25 knots with gusts approaching 30 knots. Waves will generally range from 2 to 5 feet, creating hazardous conditions for smaller vessels. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for western Lake Superior into tonight. Winds and waves will gradually subside tonight into Tuesday as high pressure begins to build over the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Strong northwest winds gusting 25-40 mph are occurring this afternoon behind a cold front. Minimum relative humidity values have dropped into the 25 to 35 percent range into northwest Wisconsin due to warmer temperatures and will likely spread into eastern Minnesota later in the afternoon. While the winds are strong, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will help preclude any critical fire weather conditions. Similar conditions will continue into the rest of the work week, with near critical fire weather conditions possible each day.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140-141-150.