textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues through this evening with heat indices reaching 95 to 105 degrees. Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect.

- Convective trends are the main concern this afternoon and tonight. An MCV sliding out of Manitoba brings an initial round of storms this afternoon, followed by additional waves this evening and overnight. Isolated to scattered severe storms are likely, capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and frequent lightning.

- Warm temperatures continue through the coming week, with occasional precipitation chances. The next significant chance of precipitation is Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Convective trends are the main concern for the rest of the day, with an MCV sliding out of the Manitoba, North Dakota, and Minnesota area to the east-southeast. It should move into the Northland this afternoon, bringing an initial round of showers and storms to the forecast area. The current convection is elevated in nature, tapping into the extreme amount of MUCAPE we saw on this mornings KINL upper air sounding. What this convection does over the next few hours is still somewhat uncertain. If it remains elevated and simply drifts to the southeast, we may have mainly a large hail threat. However, the airmass over our region is destabilizing, and we have 40 to 50 knots of 0-6km shear. If we can break the cap and the storms can become surface based, we could be dealing with an expanding QLCS and associated damaging wind threat. We are in wait and see mode for now. Additional storm development later this afternoon and tonight is going to depend on flow moving up over the 850mb baroclinic zone, and initiation will be difficult to forecast very far ahead of time. Apart from the storms, dangerous heat persists this afternoon, with temperatures already well into the 80s and Brainerd has risen above 90 already. The heat headlines, both warning and advisory, continue as is with hazy, smoky skies.

For Monday, temperatures temper slightly as winds shift to the northwest and bring in some drier air, but conditions will remain unseasonably warm. Heat indices will still approach the low 90s, especially in the Brainerd Lakes area. Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible in the early morning as an upper level shortwave and cold front traverse the region. Any organized storms could produce large hail and damaging winds, mainly early in the day. Areas of wildfire smoke will also persist, keeping skies fairly hazy across the Northland.

High pressure builds into the region for Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing drier conditions and at least a few days off from the oppressive humidity. While daytime highs will remain above normal in the 80s to low 90s, the drier airmass will make it feel more comfortable across the region. Generally quiet, dry, and pleasant weather is expected to hold firm for both days with comfortable overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s. Isolated, diurnally driven showers and storms may be possible during the afternoon and early evening.

Heading into Thursday and Friday, the quiet stretch comes to an end as the next shortwave trough and associated cold front approaches from the west. This system will bring our next widespread chance for showers and thunderstorms to the area. High temperatures will continue to reach the 80s, with humidity levels creeping back up slightly as southerly flow returns ahead of the advancing system.

As we move into next weekend, near to slightly above normal temperatures will persist. Afternoon highs will generally remain in the 80s. We will be in a somewhat stagnant pattern with the upper level ridge sliding east to over the Great Plains, keeping the storm track generally to our north. We may get occasional waves of showers and storms which dive across the area, but nothing consistent is appearing in the model runs just yet.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect parts of the area tonight, primarily HIB, DLH and HYR where TEMPO/PROB30 groups for TSRA are included in the next several hours. Once these clear out overnight, scattered fog and stratus will develop (roughly around 08Z-14Z) resulting in reduced visibility and low ceilings, with IFR or lower conditions anticipated at some times/terminals. Have included this at all TAF sites, with highest likelihood at HIB and DLH. Amendments are likely overnight based on short-term convective and fog/stratus trends.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 338 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A Marine Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 4 AM for nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. Fog and low stratus was observed on satellite over the open water and along portions of the North Shore. The fog is not expected to clear until a cold front passes across the lake overnight tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and tonight, posing a risk for large hail and strong wind gusts over the water. Away from the storms, light southwest winds today will become northeasterly at 10 to 15 knots on Monday, building waves to around 1 to 2 feet. Winds and waves diminish once again Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Extreme heat and hazy skies from wildfire smoke will continue this afternoon with west to southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph. The primary fire weather concern will be strong, erratic wind gusts and lightning from thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Isolated storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

For the rest of today, heat will continue to affect operations, with Extreme Heat Warnings and Advisories in effect. Winds will shift to the north and northwest on Monday at 5 to 10 mph, bringing a slight bump in humidity to generally between 40 and 50 percent. A lake breeze off Lake Superior will occur Monday, bringing cooler temperatures and higher RH values. RH values will dip slightly for Tuesday, but winds will be variable at less than 5 mph.

Smoke from western U.S. wildfires moves over the region even more so today and is forecast to produce hazy skies, but with limited mixing down to the surface.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A few daily temperature records are forecast to be within a few degrees of either bring tied or broken in the Northland today.

Record High Temperatures:

July 26: Forecast: KDLH: 92/1930 89 KINL: 93/1914 88 KBRD: 100/1929 95 KHIB: 91/2015 89 KASX: 95/1929 90

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ010>012- 019>021. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ018- 025-026-033>038. WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ004-009. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>003-006>008. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ140>145. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LSZ142.