textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northeast winds tonight in the Twin Ports create likely gale-force wind gusts to 40 mph into the head of the lake.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are forecast Saturday for the beaches of Duluth and Superior due to building waves and a high risk of rip currents.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will occur nearly every day as relative humidity falls below 25 percent.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

For the rest of the day, record to near-record high temperatures are expected across the Northland. We are barely nicking Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon, but we held off on an advisory because of the high clouds streaming overhead working against the heating. Despite the clouds, it will feel very hot. Hi-rez models are popping off isolated storms this afternoon as diurnal heating maximizes which may also eat into the heating. Tonight, a backdoor cold front will sweep into the region, which will increase winds significantly, especially over Lake Superior.

Heading into Saturday, that backdoor cold front will continue to push through the area. Hi-rez models are popping off isolated storms again tomorrow along this boundary. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler near Lake Superior, staying in the 60s, while inland areas still reach the 80s. The big story tomorrow will be the winds on the lake. We have upgraded to a Gale Warning for the Twin Ports largely based on the HRRR and HREF and gut models with our general bias to go too low over the waters.

For Sunday and Monday, dry conditions continue with near-critical fire weather expected nearly every day as relative humidity falls below 25 percent. High pressure settles back over the Great Lakes, keeping Sunday dry with highs in the 70s near the lake and 80s further inland. No widespread soaking rainfall is expected. Breezy southeast winds will persist.

The long term forecast for Tuesday through Thursday keeps our temperatures well above normal across the region. The upper level pattern maintains a stubborn ridge, though a few weak ripples could spark scattered showers and storms each afternoon. We are closely monitoring the extended period, as the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted a moderate risk for excessive heat from June 6th through the 8th. The stagnant heat will be the primary story through late next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions prevail under increasingly gusty east to northeast winds off the Big Lake later tonight. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out in the Borderlands tonight as the backdoor cold front that brings those increasing winds late tonight moves northeast to southwest. At this time though chances are 10% or less for any terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A backdoor cold front will cross western Lake Superior tonight, causing northeast winds to increase sharply. We have upgraded to a Gale Warning for the Twin Ports largely based on the HRRR and HREF and gut models with our general bias to go too low over the waters. Gales to 35 knots and building waves are expected tonight into Saturday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the remaining nearshore waters. Winds diminish Sunday before northeast flow returns Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected today through early next week. We will see dry conditions continue with near-critical fire weather nearly every day as relative humidity falls below 25 percent. Winds will generally be light from the south today, but a backdoor cold front will shift winds to the northeast tonight and Saturday, increasing gusts downwind and in the vicinity of Lake Superior. Dry conditions and low relative humidity will persist through the weekend and into next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ140>142. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.