textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming up today into this weekend. Hot weather with near- record highs in the upper-70s to mid-80s expected on Saturday and near-record warm lows Saturday night.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions could occur Saturday with gusty south winds of 25-35 mph, dry air, and very warm temperatures.

- Closer to seasonal temperatures next week with rain chances returning late Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

While latest data shows Saturday temperatures have decreased slightly, they remain close to record levels in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Strong southerly wind gusts up to 30 to 35 mph combined with low relative humidity will create near critical fire weather conditions across southern portions of our area. Saturday night will stay unseasonably warm and breezy with low temperatures dropping only into the 60s.

A cold front will begin pushing across the region from northwest to southeast on Sunday. Highs ahead of the front across southern areas and northwest Wisconsin will still reach near 80 degrees with gusty winds and dry air. Despite a slight increase in RH this forecast, near critical fire conditions are still possible in northwest Wisconsin on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY:

Surface high pressure departing to the east will lead to southerly/southeasterly winds developing on Friday. Temperatures will be on the increase, reaching the low 60s to around 70F, and some 50s in the Arrowhead due to onshore flow. Winds should be on the increase throughout Friday, with PM gusts to 15-25 mph, steadily increasing overnight. No precipitation is expected.

For Saturday, the Northland will be wedged between an anomalous upper-level ridge axis centered just to our east and troughing over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a low pressure system in the Dakotas will have a very tight pressure gradient out ahead of it, pumping unusually warm and breezy conditions into the Northland relative to this time of year. Given strong, southerly warm air advection ahead of the low pressure, high temperatures are forecast to soar into the upper 70s to mid 80s, being warmest in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph are also expected, as well as minimum relative humidity dipping to the low to upper 30s (%) in the warmest areas and upper 30s to 40s (%) elsewhere. This combination of fairly low relative humidity combined with very warm and breezy conditions may lead to near-critical fire weather conditions on Saturday. We stay in the warm sector of the low pressure system on Saturday night with breezy warm, southerly winds continuing. As a result, low temperatures for many areas shouldn't cool off much below the upper 50s to mid 60s except in far north-central Minnesota. Several locations could approach record daily high temperatures for Saturday and record warm low temperatures for Saturday night (see the "Climate" section below).

On Sunday, the surface cold front associated with the low pressure system will gradually be moving from northwest to southeast across the area. Given the current forecast timing of the front, the I-35 corridor into northwest Wisconsin should still see high temperatures top out around 80F to the low 80s. Most of northeast Minnesota should see highs in the 70s, with some 60s in far north-central Minnesota where the front will move through quicker. Given later cold front timing in the I-35 corridor to northwest Wisconsin, the warm temperatures, fairly low min RH, and southerly wind gusts of 20-30 mph late Sunday morning and afternoon could lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:

Upper-level support/troughing is relatively weak and situated behind the cold front on Sunday. Far north-central Minnesota could see light rain chances arrive as early as late Sunday afternoon or evening, with rain chances then moving across areas mainly north of US HWY 2 (20-50% chance) Sunday evening and night. Farther south may not see any precipitation through Sunday night as drier air appears to linger in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Areas that do see rain likely see less than 0.10".

A second trough aloft moves through the area Monday into Monday night as a secondary surface low moves across Wisconsin into the central Great Lakes. A little bit better scattered, light rain chances are possible with this second trough across much of the Northland (40-70%, highest in north-central MN into the Arrowhead). Regardless, additional accumulations range from little to nothing south of US HWY 2 to 0.10-0.20" in north- central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Total amounts for late Sunday through Monday night will generally top out around 0.25" in northern areas, with decreasing amounts with southward extent to almost no accumulating rainfall south of US HWY 2.

Much cooler, more seasonal October temperatures return Monday and Tuesday. Lows Monday night are forecast to dip into the low 30s north to low 40s south and low to upper 30s Tuesday night. High pressure overhead on Tuesday should keep conditions dry once rain chances end late Monday night.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK:

Global ensembles and deterministic model solutions forecast a digging upper-level trough over California on Monday to eject into the Rocky Mountains by Tuesday night/Wednesday and into the Upper Midwest sometime in the late Wednesday or Thursday timeframe. At the surface, expect lee cyclogenesis in the Colorado vicinity late Tuesday to eject northeast into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Wednesday night or Thursday. There still remains substantial spread in the timing and track of the surface and upper-level features with this mid to late next week system. However, given the appearance of stronger synoptic forcing, more widespread rainfall potential would be in store. Seasonal fall temperatures also linger into the second half of next week, as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Winds will shift to the southeast throughout the morning, and will increase specifically in the evening and overnight. Wind gusts up to 20 kts are expected and LLWS will follow in the late overnight at all terminals except BRD.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Easterly winds will increase this afternoon as high pressure departs the region, producing gusts of 15 to 25 knots and waves building to 2 to 5 feet. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all nearshore zones starting this afternoon and evening through early Saturday morning. Strong southerly winds will develop Saturday afternoon and persist into Saturday night, with additional headlines expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Relative humidity values will fall to 30 to 40 percent today with gusts around 15 to 20 mph. On Saturday, near-record heat with temperatures in the 70s and 80s and strong south wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph will yield relative humidity values of 32 to 45 percent, creating near critical fire weather conditions across southern areas. Similar dry, windy conditions will maintain near critical fire weather threats in northwest Wisconsin on Sunday before a cold front brings cooler air and light rain chances.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 109 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures and warm low temperatures are shown below for Saturday and Sunday, October 10th and 11th, where the forecast temperature is within three degrees of approaching the record temperature.

High Temperatures:

10/10: Record Forecast KDLH: 82/1938 79 KINL: 80/1955 76 KBRD: 85/1928 82 KHIB: 81/1938 79 KASX: 86/1938 84

10/11: Record Forecast KASX: 86/2015 82

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

10/11: Record Forecast KDLH: 58/1938 60 KBRD: 58/1997 61 KHIB: 55/1938 58 KASX: 58/2015 62

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-143>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ141-142.