textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- After scattered rain showers end tonight, nearly all areas are dry through Friday evening.

- Our next chance for precipitation is this upcoming weekend, with off-and-on showers and storms.

- A period or two of strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the rest of the day, expect widely scattered off-and-on rain showers to continue into this evening before slowly ending from west to east across the Northland. Gusty northwest winds will also reach up to 30 mph early this afternoon, but these winds will begin decreasing late this afternoon and into the evening hours.

As we move into Thursday and Friday, dry weather will dominate for nearly all of our region. However, a few more localized and brief rain showers are forecast for the tip of the Arrowhead on Thursday afternoon. As skies clear and light winds become calm, a chilly night is forecast Thursday night, cold spots will reach the low 40s and pockets dropping into the upper 30s by early Friday morning.

By late Friday night into Saturday morning, an incoming warm air advection regime will set up and bring our next round of thunderstorm chances. These periodic thunderstorm chances will last through much of the weekend as low pressure traverses the Northern Plains. Strong thunderstorms are possible this weekend, depending on exactly where the warm front sets up over the area.

Current trends keep the best potential for strong storms along and south of the Highway 2 corridor, particularly from the Brainerd Lakes to the Interstate 35 corridor and into inland northwest Wisconsin. As the low pressure passes through the Upper Midwest Sunday PM into Monday daytime, there is a slightly better environment progged in medium range global guidance for strong thunderstorms to maybe even scrape the levels of severe weather. If strong thunderstorms can form this weekend, Sunday PM is most likely across much of the region south of US Hwy 2 and Monday being far eastern Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin. Drier and quieter conditions are favored to return by next Tuesday.

A slightly warmer airmass arrives this weekend and persist into early next week. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to reach the mid 80s, and if the warmer guidance verifies, some spots in the warm sector could even scrape the upper 80s. However, the exact location of weekend storms and lingering sky cover will heavily influence whether these warmer temperatures are realized.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Scattered showers and lowering ceilings will bring periods of MVFR conditions to regional terminals through early afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR from west to east as showers slowly exit. Expect gusty northwest winds up to 25 knots this afternoon before winds decouple and become light this evening. VFR conditions are forecast for Thursday with light winds and mostly clear skies expected across all local sites. Hayward may see IFR to potentially LIFR visibility late tonight into early Thursday morning from ground fog.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Northwest winds gusting up to 25 knots will continue across the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior today, maintaining hazardous conditions for small craft along parts of the North Shore through early evening. Scattered showers are also possible today. Winds and waves to 2 feet will subside tonight as high pressure builds in. Calm conditions are expected on Thursday and Friday with winds generally remaining under 10 knots and waves settling to a foot or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Breezy northwest winds through this afternoon subside this evening, remaining mixed out though along the North Shore ridgeline. A drier airmass arrives on Thursday, dropping minimum relative humidity into the 35 to 45 percent range. However, northwest wind gusts will diminish to 15 mph or less. Similarly air will persist into Friday, but winds will become much lighter and variable, limiting fire weather concerns. The next round of off-and-on thunderstorm chances begins early Saturday morning and lasts through much of the weekend. Widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast, but localized amounts are most likely along and south of US Hwy 2 into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141- 142.