textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warming conditions are expected this weekend and into next week.

- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday next week.

- A second potential system could move through the region next weekend bringing a mix of rain and snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Current conditions - Mid Week:

Surface high pressure resides over the Northland leading to clear skies and and light winds across the region. Temperatures this afternoon will warm into the low 40s. Upper level ridging is firmly set up across the Northern Plains and is expected to linger through the middle of the upcoming work week. The coldest portion of the air mass will gradually shift east through this period and allow warmer air to filter in from the south and west. Temperatures will continue their gradual climb to well above normal. Highs will ascend into the 50s by Wednesday which is 10-15F above normal for this time of year. We may also end up breaking some warm low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday with early morning temperatures currently forecasted to be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Late Week - Weekend:

A pattern shift is expected to occur late Wednesday as troughing pushes in from the west and nudges the ridge out of the region. This will open the door for a more active weather pattern with models highlighting two potential systems that could impact the Northland. The first system is projected to move across the Northern Plains and jog north towards Ontario. The exact path remains nebulous this far out but given the synoptic set up the system will have to contend with a fair amount of dry air as it approaches. Warm temps in place will also lend itself to rain being the dominant precipitation type.

Early indications from available ensembles and deterministic guidance suggest that the second system that arrives next weekend could be more impactful. While exact track remains uncertain the models do show some agreement with the system being stronger as pressure values range from 990-1000mb. Nothing extreme but more in line with our typical Colorado Low set up. Which would also lead to higher PWATs to produce better precipitation rates. Depending on the track we could introduce some snow on the backside of this system as cold air will likely be waiting over the Canadian Prairies.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period. Mainly light south winds occur as well, with some gusts to 20 knots in the central Minnesota region Sunday midday and afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Surface high pressure will remain in place for the weekend, leading to north to northwest winds less than 15 kts for Saturday and most of Sunday. On the back side of the high pressure Sunday night, winds switch to the southwest and increase to around 25 knots across much of western Lake Superior and waves increase to greater than 4 ft along the North Shore early Monday morning. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds diminish Wednesday before potentially strengthening again Thursday. Another period of hazardous conditions may develop next weekend as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

No fire weather concerns. Quiet weather conditions this weekend and through early next week. Southwest winds will increase on Monday with a few gusts around 25 kts. However, our Min RHs are expected to remain above 45% through the period. Rain chances won't return until late Wednesday and into next weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.