textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Northeast winds will lead to potentially hazardous swimming conditions again Thursday.

- Near critical fire weather conditions continue through the majority of the forecast period.

- Temperatures continue to increase for Friday with potentially record breaking heat, and Heat Advisories may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Northeast winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph are creating dangerous rip currents at beaches around the Twin Ports and hazardous boating conditions. Clear skies will prevail tonight as winds ease slightly, with low temperatures dropping into the lower 40s to around 50 degrees.

On Thursday, a similar weather pattern remains in place as high pressure sags closer to the region. Skies will stay sunny, and temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s inland, while the lakeside stays in the 60s. Lighter east to southeast winds are expected, but another prominent lake breeze will develop by late afternoon. This will maintain a moderate to high risk of dangerous rip currents at the head of the lake.

The weather pattern shifts on Friday as the surface high pressure moves south and brings a hot southerly return flow. Temperatures on Friday continue to trend up across the area, bringing summer-like heat with record or near-record highs. Expect widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, and even locations right along the lake will warm into the 80s. Because of these increasing temperatures, a few heat advisories may be needed. This extreme heat combined with humidity values dropping below 25 percent will maintain near-critical fire weather concerns, though winds will remain light around 5 mph.

Heading into the weekend, another area of high pressure drifts southward from Ontario, shifting our winds back to the northeast on Saturday. This tighter pressure gradient will generate another strong lake breeze, dropping lakeside highs into the 60s while inland spots reach the mid to upper 80s. These winds will cause hazardous swimming and boating conditions on Lake Superior as well. Isolated thunderstorms may develop Saturday afternoon and evening along the lake breeze boundary in the mid to late afternoon. Severe storms are not anticipated at this time. By Sunday, hot and partly cloudy conditions return with inland highs climbing back into the mid 80s, accompanied by light and variable winds and a continuing minor chance for late-day showers or storms.

For the early to middle part of next week, the region stays under a static ridge pattern that keeps conditions mostly dry. Monday and Tuesday will feature mostly clear skies with highs remaining warm in the upper 70s to mid 80s, while nighttime lows dip into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Winds will generally blow from the west or northwest at light speeds. A weak disturbance riding over the ridge will bring a minor 20 percent chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, but rainfall accumulation greater than a hundredth or two is not anticipated through mid- week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Winds will shift more out of the southeast over the next 24 hours, but shouldn't exceed 17 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

A tightening pressure gradient is leading to strong northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots today across western Lake Superior, with gusts of 15 to 25 knots and waves building to 2 to 5 feet. The strongest gusts and largest waves are in the southwest arm and near the Twin Ports and areas surrounding the Apostle Islands, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 PM this evening. Winds and waves will relax overnight. Northeast winds will build again on Thursday but will remain below advisory levels, followed by lighter conditions on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Sunny skies and deep mixing are leading to low relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent across the area this afternoon, with values dropping below 25 percent near Leech Lake and northern St. Louis County. The lake breeze is also making its way further inland today which will lead to cooling temperatures and a brief period of wind up to 18 mph as it moves through. East to northeast winds will increase to 5 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, creating near- critical conditions. Thursday will bring similar dry conditions with lighter southeast winds. Friday will feature widespread humidity levels below 25 percent and record heat in the 80s and 90s, though winds will remain light.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Temperatures continue to increase for Friday with temperatures nearing daily record highs at several climate sites. As of this morning Hibbing is forecast to break their record by several degrees. Below are the sites where forecast high temperatures are within 3 degrees of their record values.

Friday, May 29: Forecast Record -------- ------ Duluth: 85 ........ 87 in 1986 Hibbing: 91 ........ 88 in 1999 and 2006 I. Falls: 91 ........ 92 in 1919 Brainerd: 91 ........ 94 in 2018

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 144-145-148-150.