textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered light rain showers and perhaps a couple embedded, non-severe thunderstorms through this morning.

- Next best chance for precipitation is Friday night through Saturday with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms for the Northland.

- Near normal temperatures persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Current Overnight - Today:

During the current overnight hours through this morning, remnant convective activity over the eastern Dakotas and west-central and southern Minnesota will slide east through central/southern Minnesota into Wisconsin. This will bring some chances for isolated to scattered showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm or two to primarily southern portions of the Northland, particularly the Brainerd Lakes into northwest Wisconsin and areas south. With limited instability and the main forcing with a passing weak shortwave remaining to our south, no severe weather is expected. Most areas will not see measurable rain, and those that do should only see a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or two at best. Patchy fog is also possible early this morning, mainly in northeast Minnesota. Widespread dense fog is not expected.

As the shortwave to our south pushes east throughout the day today, areas of clouds should persist, especially in the southern half of the Northland. Can't rule out a few sprinkles or stray showers in inland northwest Wisconsin into the afternoon, but chances are low (around 20% or less). Otherwise, expect a seasonal day today with high temperatures in the mid-70s to low-80s for most locations along with fairly light northeast winds. The funneling of these winds into the head of Lake Superior may lead to a moderate risk for rip currents at Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches late this afternoon and evening. Smoke aloft will also keep skies hazy where clouds clear.

Friday - Saturday:

Most of Friday is forecast to remain dry as a shortwave ridge and surface high pressure influence the region. The surface pressure gradient will be on the increase throughout Friday as weakly forced shortwave energy on the western side of the shortwave ridge and an associated surface low pressure system will be moving into the Dakotas. This will drive increasing northeast winds off of Lake Superior, leading to a likely risk of rip currents at Minnesota and Wisconsin Point beaches Friday through Friday evening. High temperatures will be similar to Thursday in the mid-70s to mid-80s, though slightly cooler near Lake Superior.

Starting as early as Friday night and continuing into Saturday morning, isentropic upglide/warm-air advection ahead of the approaching low pressure system will bring areas of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms into the Northland. Additional isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorm activity continues through much of Saturday on a scattered basis along and ahead of the cold front that will be moving west to east across the area. Medium-range ensembles vary on the exact timing of this system, some bringing precipitation in as early as Friday night and some bringing it in later towards Saturday morning or afternoon. Given the fairly weak forcing associated with the shortwave trough and marginal instability into the Northland with this system, severe weather is not expected at this time. Global ensembles as a whole are tame regarding precipitation amounts with this system, with most only up to one quarter of an inch or less. In fact, NBM probabilities for 0.25" or greater are only above 50% (i.e. 50-70%) in portions of Itasca, far northern St. Louis, and Koochiching counties in north-central Minnesota with lower chances elsewhere. These same locations have a 30-40% probability for greater than 0.5" and a less than 20% chance for greater than 1". The higher accumulations would only be attainable for areas that see several thunderstorms move overhead.

Saturday will be a couple degrees cooler than Friday, with high temperatures forecast in the low-70s to low-80s, though slightly cooler near Lake Superior.

Early to Mid-Next Week:

Most of the first half of next week will see a broader zonal to slightly northwest flow pattern aloft, with periodic embedded shortwave trough energy at times that could bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) in the late Monday through mid- week timeframe. However, confidence in exact timing, locations, and amounts is lower at this time range. Temperatures for the first half of next week are forecast to remain around normal with highs in the 70s to low-80s and overnight lows in the 50s to low-60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

VFR conditions prevail at most terminals through the TAF period. Still looking at patchy fog potential for KHIB late tonight into early Thursday morning, though potential has decreased some due to mid and high-level cloud cover. KINL is on the northern fringe of this cloud cover and could also see fog development if any breaks in the clouds can occur. Light, scattered rain showers south and west of KBRD as of 0530Z are expected at KBRD tonight into early Thursday morning, but conditions should remain VFR. There is a less than 20% chance that an embedded thunderstorm could occur within these showers. The showers will push east into the morning, which could impact KHYR. Have included a PROB30 mention in KHYR to capture this. Winds remain light throughout the TAF period, though occasional afternoon and evening gusts could approach 10-15 kt at KDLH/KBRD/KHYR.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Onshore winds occur today. A couple stronger gusts up to 15 knots are possible this afternoon into evening at the head of the Lake along with 1-2 ft waves. Some patchy dense marine fog is possible at times through the week, especially along the North Shore where the coldest water temperatures are. Stronger northeast winds arrive on Friday with gusts to 25 to 30 kt in the southwest arm of Lake Superior and much of the South Shore along the northwest Wisconsin coast. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds ease slightly for Saturday, though northeast wind gusts to 15-20 kt will still be possible in the southwest arm of Lake Superior. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday evening through Saturday, with the thunderstorm chances mainly late Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Today and Friday will see lower afternoon min RH values dip into into the 35-45% range each day, lowest in the Boundary Waters and the NW WI Pine Barrens. Expect some isolated to scattered rain showers overnight tonight into Thursday morning for the Brainerd Lakes to inland NW WI, but amounts will likely be around or less than 0.10" at best. Light northeast to east winds develop today, with a few afternoon to early evening gusts of 10-15 mph possible near the Twin Ports and in the Brainerd Lakes to NW WI.

Easterly winds persist into Friday, with gusts to 15-20 mph for central MN to the Twin Ports and NW WI, locally 25 mph near Lake Superior in the afternoon and evening. Friday, expect easterly winds to continue with stronger afternoon gusts, especially along Lake Superior. Friday night into Saturday, a better chance for scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated at this time. Rainfall amounts will most likely be less than 0.25" for much of the area, with the exception of north-central Minnesota where probabilities of greater than 0.25" are 50-70%, but greater than 0.5" are only 30-40%.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.