textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Messy wintry precipitation is expected to begin this evening into tonight, coming to an end by Friday afternoon.

- Total snowfall will be 2 inches or less for most, with locally higher amounts up to around 3" in the snow belts of Iron and eastern Ashland Counties. Ice accumulations of a glaze up to a few hundredths of an inch are also possible.

- Quick cool down back below zero on Friday night with a return to above normal temperatures each day Sunday onward. Additional chances for wintry precip are possible from Saturday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

After a cloudy start to the day with patchy fog and freezing drizzle, conditions early this afternoon have been much quieter as a warm front associated with an approaching Clipper moves through the CWA. Temperatures across the western half of the CWA are expected to warm above freezing this afternoon with highs around the mid 30s. In the eastern half of the CWA, high temps this afternoon will likely be at or slightly below freezing as the warm front won't be passing through until after peak diurnal heating.

The main focus in the near term is a second round of wintry precipitation that will be arriving this evening into tonight as a cold front and mid-level disturbance moves through the CWA. This second round of precip is expected to have a messy variety of precipitation types. While snow will be the dominant precip type, above-freezing temps are likely to initially cause a rain/snow mix. In addition, light freezing rain is possible as warm air aloft occurs from the I-35 corridor to St. Croix River valley with sub- freezing sfc temps. Expect precip type to transition to all snow late tonight into early Friday morning as CAA occurs behind the cold front.

Total snow amounts for the vast majority of the CWA today through Friday will be light from a trace to 2". Locally higher amounts around 3" are expected in the snow belts of Iron County and eastern Ashland County as slight lake effect snow begins with the north- northwest flow behind the cold front. Marginal delta-Ts between 850mb and the sfc of around 14-16 degC and the increased ice cover will limit the intensity of lake effect. In terms of ice accumulations, the most likely area for a few hundredths of an inch of ice will be Pine and Burnett Counties with a glaze possible elsewhere.

Following the departure of this late week Clipper on Friday morning, cloud cover will decrease on Friday. With clear skies expected on Friday night, temperatures will be cold with lows dropping into the negative single digits to negative teens. The synoptic pattern remains unsettled this weekend into early next week as additional Clippers potentially move through with a strong baroclinic zone remaining over the Upper Midwest. This translates to off-and-on wintry mix precip chances from 20-40 percent multiple times Saturday onward.

Additional days with high temps above freezing are forecast on Monday and Tuesday this upcoming week, with much of the CWA seeing highs in the mid to upper 30s. While high temps do cool back below freezing on Wednesday, it's worth noting that this warmer than average pattern is likely to continue in mid-Febraury as the Climate Prediction Center has a 70-80% chance for above normal temperatures. For context, normal temperatures for mid-Febraury are highs around the mid 20s and overnight lows in the single digits.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

LIFR to IFR stratus continues early this afternoon for a large portion of the area with patchy fog. Ahead of an approaching cold front this evening into tonight, there will be a period of VFR conditions, especially in north-central MN as skies scatter. As the cold front associated with a passing Clipper sweeps south this evening into tonight, expect a widespread reduction to IFR and LIFR as light snow moves through. Freezing drizzle will also be possible with this next round of precip, mainly in the Brainerd Lakes area where dry air aloft is most likely. Cloud cover diminishes on Friday morning, with VFR conditions anticipated. Northwest winds behind the front will likely be breezy into Friday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 318 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

After a breezy start this morning, quieter conditions have been occurring this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This lull in winds will be short-lived though as northwest winds will be increasing late tonight following the cold frontal passage. Winds of 10-20 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots are expected. Small Craft Advisories are in effect starting late tonight. Brief gales may be possible around the 5 AM to 10 AM timeframe on Friday morning along the North Shore from Silver Bay to Grand Portage. However, the potential for gales is a low 20% chance. Expect winds to ease by Friday night as high pressure builds.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM CST Friday for LSZ140>142-146-148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM CST Friday for LSZ143>145.