textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy west-northwest winds are expected today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph forecast, strongest in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

- The next round of rain and storms chances arrive Friday PM. This is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

- A second round of rainfall chances begins Sunday afternoon and goes through Monday, but with mainly light to moderate rainfall and possibly embedded non-severe thunderstorms.

- A pattern change to noticeably cooler temperatures is favored this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For the rest of the day, a tightened pressure gradient is creating breezy west-northwest winds. Observed gusts of 25 to 35 mph today will continue into this afternoon, but they are expected to decrease late this afternoon into the supper hours early this evening. Calm conditions are expected by early tonight for nearly all locations. The one exception will be downsloping winds remaining mixed out for terrain funneled areas of the North Shore where winds will linger late this evening. There will also be a few rain showers along the Borderlands through late afternoon today under the cyclonic cold air advection associated with the deep low pressure over far northern Ontario.

A weak warm air advection regime sets up Thursday daytime into Thursday night leading to seasonable warm to almost hot temperatures both days. Expect mild and dry conditions through Friday mid-day.

By Friday early afternoon, severe weather chances begin to first increase for north-central Minnesota as an advancing cold front stemming from a low pressure over central Manitoba shifts into the Upper Midwest. Global ensemble guidance is progging a moist airmass around 1.5 inches of precipitable water lining up with favorable mid-level lapse rates and instability profiles. This supports an uptick in thunderstorm development likely early to mid-afternoon, first in the Brainerd Lakes to Leech Lakes region. By later afternoon as better shear moves into the region and CAPE values continue to indicate a growing availability of energy for storm growth, the more likely time period for severe weather sets up into northeast Minnesota for late afternoon to the early to mid evening hours. The stateline counties of northwest Wisconsin right along the Minnesota and Wisconsin border would also be included in this greatest severe weather threat for Friday evening when damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected under this environmental setup and we will have to watch for possible minor flooding Friday evening. Severe weather chances will taper late Friday evening to early overnight as the cold front and troughing move through the region. Expect a downturn in shower activity from west-northwest to east-southeast Friday night.

Gusty northwest winds return for Saturday daytime under cooler temperatures as high pressure builds in behind the departing cold front. For Saturday late night into Sunday early morning, far northern Minnesota likely sees temperatures dipping into the upper 30s. We will have to monitor for any mid 30s potential as well in the usual cold spots near the Iron Range and into the Arrowhead up into Koochiching County.

Sunday afternoon into Monday, a warm front sets up south of the region into southern Minnesota and central Wisconsin to create gusty easterly onshore winds for all lakeshore areas. This pattern also favors a more fall-like cloudy and longer duration light to moderate rainfall with embedded general thunderstorm potential for Monday daytime. While the rainfall ends by Tuesday daytime, fall-like near-normal to cooler temperatures and more breezy conditions will persist into the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Breezy west/northwest winds will persist through this afternoon, but they will weaken pretty quickly around sunset as high pressure moves in. Winds become light and variable through the night and eventually light from the southwest later Thursday morning. Scattered VFR cumulus clouds this afternoon are expected to mix out overnight to clear skies with VFR conditions through the period. The only exception is potential for some fog to develop briefly tonight, with the best signal in the models favored at HIB. Temporary MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings may be possible just before to around sunrise.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A Gale Warning remains in effect through 5 PM CDT this afternoon for the nearshore zones around the Apostle Islands, Chequamegon Bay, and the North Shore from Grand Portage to Grand Marais. West winds are gusting up to 35 knots with waves building to 4 to 7 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 7 PM CDT for the rest of western Lake Superior, with Gale Warning zones likely need to be followed up with other Small Craft Advisories this evening too. Winds will quickly subside this evening into tonight. More mild marine conditions return for Thursday with lighter winds...the exception being funneled strong southerly winds through the Isle Royale and Grand Portage corridor. Stronger south winds may bring hazardous conditions to small craft on Friday, along with strong to potentially severe thunderstorm chances Friday evening and early overnight. Gusty easterly winds are then expected by Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1135 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Gusty west to northwest winds will continue this afternoon, with gusts from 25 to 35 mph, especially across the Arrowhead. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 40 percent, mitigating fire weather threats. Winds will diminish this evening, yielding excellent overnight humidity recovery. Thursday will be sunny, dry, and warm with much lighter southwest winds and afternoon relative humidity values dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Winds will increase out of the south on Friday ahead of an approaching cold front, bringing the next widespread chance for wetting rain and thunderstorms by Friday afternoon and evening. Some of these thunderstorms are likely to be strong, and a few may be severe Friday later afternoon to evening hours.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-140-147- 148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>146.