textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible for parts of northwest Wisconsin this evening. Large hail to around ping-pong ball size and wind gusts to around 60 mph are the main threats (~15% chance).

- Additional showers and storms are expected this week. Isolated strong to severe storms may be possible late Thursday afternoon through early Saturday morning. More storms are possible at times this weekend and into next week.

- Warm to hot weather will persist for the foreseeable future. Heat headlines are not anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Current weather through tonight: We have plenty of clouds across the region early this afternoon. Remnants of some showers and storms across northwest Wisconsin associated with a quasi-stationary warm front have largely dissipated, and this is the area that has now seen a bit of clearing. Further northwest, several weak waves of vorticity spinning around the southeast side of an upper-level low, possibly combined with a bit of mid-level frontogenesis, is triggering some banded areas of showers in northeast Minnesota. These could stick around through the afternoon, and there could be some pop-up thunderstorms as well, but nothing severe is expected.

For this afternoon and evening, the best chance for any strong to severe storms will be in northwest Wisconsin, especially in Price county. After this morning's rain, it appears that we are likely to see just a glancing blow at thunderstorms as our environment has been worked over a bit from this morning's rain. Not too much movement of the front is expected either, so this afternoon's convection is most likely to develop in the vicinity of that over southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. There is a little wiggle room, however, and if storms did end up a bit further north at initiation, we could see more storms impacting a slightly broader area of northwest Wisconsin. This scenario certainly can't be ruled out with some of the clearing going on right now.

To the north of the front, model soundings don't look especially promising for low-level veering that would be supportive for tornadoes. It can't be totally ruled out, but that's not likely to be the main hazard. Instead, the potential for MUCAPE (1-2.5 kJ/kg) could result in a large hail threat (to ping-pong ball size or so) initially for supercell development, and strong winds later if storms congeal into a line (60 mph or so, perhaps up to 70 mph in the event that storms track further north than currently forecast). Heavy rain could pose a very minor risk for flooding if there were any training storms, but again, this would be in the event that storms track further north. Storms will be most likely this evening right around sunset and lasting until midnight or shortly after. As has been the case with this weather pattern over the past several days, even right now there is some uncertainty on where exactly storms will go because the initial convection expected over Iowa/SE Minnesota/West-central Wisconsin has not developed yet. SPC has trimmed the northern extent of a previous enhanced risk for severe weather to exclude Price County. At this time, several NW Wisconsin counties have a slight (5-15% chance) risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and a marginal (<5% chance) risk further northeast.

Thursday through Saturday morning: Upper level flow is expected to become more westerly Thursday with low pressure passing by to the north and some slightly more stable air moving in briefly. Thursday is looking like it'll be largely a break from widespread thunderstorm activity, but we will still have a few chances out there. The more unstable air is looking to be broadly setup to our west and south, and it's there that SPC has outlined a marginal risk for some strong to severe storms for the afternoon/overnight. We will probably end up with some showers and storms moving into the region from the southwest in the evening and overnight hours, but that will depend on where they develop Thursday afternoon across the Dakotas. These will probably be our typical decaying MCS remnants and sub-severe, though again, a marginal risk for severe storms capable of some large hail or gusty winds can't be ruled out. Expect more warm/hot weather with highs in the 80s pretty much everywhere.

Another blossom of instability is expected Friday with a hot air mass in place, and this is largely expected south of our region but just clipping our southern and western areas. A weak upper-level wave could trigger thunderstorms, and perhaps an MCS, somewhere roughly in the Dakotas that could spread east Friday night. At this time, it's likely something like that would pass south of the Northland, but the exact track won't be known until the initial storms develop.

This Weekend: At this point, it's tricky to say when we might have storm chances, but our general hot weather pattern should persist. Any passing waves could result in a few showers/storms. Otherwise, generally warm to hot temperatures will persist, but nothing likely that should require any heat headlines.

Early next week: Largely rinse and repeat with a warm summertime pattern in place. We will have broad ridging in place with intermittent passing shortwaves that could result in thunderstorm chances. Expect highs in the 80s to be pretty common.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail at the moment, and expect predominantly VFR conditions through the period at most terminals. Breezy southwest winds this afternoon will calm down around or just before sunset. Showers are possible this afternoon around HIB, and while a stray rumble of thunder or two are possible, the chances are not high enough to mention in the TAF at this time. At HYR, there are better chances of thunderstorms this evening, though not a guarantee there either. If storms do happen to pass by, large hail can't be ruled out along with gusty and erratic winds. Later tonight, models are strongly suggesting that fog will develop at HYR with a moisture rich lower atmosphere. If thunderstorms don't happen over or in the vicinity of the terminal, it's possible that fog may pose less of a threat, but right now it is strongly favored to develop.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Southwest winds are expected through Thursday. They are expected to lighten up tonight, then pick up again on Thursday. There is a ~50-70% chance of seeing wind gusts around 25 kt midday into the afternoon. Small Craft Advisories may be needed up near Grand Marais and Grand Portage. Winds will decrease and become northeasterly going into Friday. Strong winds are not anticipated Friday at this time. Gusts to 15 kt are expected, but slightly stronger winds may be possible during the afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns are expected for the foreseeable future. We may have some drier days, like Thursday, where RH may fall into the 35-45% range, but nothing drier than that is in the forecast for the next week. Rain chances will be on-and-off and hit-or-miss due to the scattered nature of storms. Parts of northwest Wisconsin, mainly Price County, could get clipped by a few storms this evening. If that happens, localized amounts around or over half an inch can't be ruled out, but most areas should remain dry. A few showers/storms may affect isolated parts of NE Minnesota this afternoon as well.

Slightly more widespread rain Thursday night through early Saturday morning could result in a quarter to half an inch of rain for several places. Some places will see less than that, though. Additional chances for showers and storms are possible this weekend into next week. Warm to hot weather will continue for the next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.