textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Back to average temperatures for one day, then trending above average into the weekend and early next week.

- Quiet weather through Friday, then some showers possible Saturday.

- A larger system may bring widespread rain early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Some post-cold frontal stratus clouds are scattered about the region early this morning, especially around and north of the Iron Range. These clouds should stick around through the morning and early afternoon with just enough moisture, a weak trough aloft, and cold air advection morphing these into more of a stratocumulus layer by afternoon. Other than that, some breezy west winds today and temperatures that will be cooler relative to where we've been, but actually around seasonal averages for this time of year. Tonight, high pressure settles in, so expect clear skies and widespread below freezing temperatures.

Friday and beyond, not much changes from the previous forecast. Warm air advection may result in a few showers on Saturday. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT:

As of 330 PM... Storms continued over central and southern Minnesota in the warm sector of a nascent low pressure system centered near STC. The warm front extended eastward roughly along MN/WI-70 while a cold front was farther west over southwest Minnesota. Temperatures were in the upper 50s and low 60s over western Wisconsin into central Minnesota with dewpoints in the 50s. The 18Z MPX sounding revealed two elevated mixed layers which were keeping the eastward extent of convection limited. Hodographs over east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin were supportive of supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes. The main question is whether storms can become surface-based. Storms are expected to lift northeastward into the Brainerd Lakes and northwest Wisconsin late this afternoon and this evening. Areas of northwest Wisconsin and adjacent portions of east-central Minnesota saw partial sunshine this afternoon which will aid in storm development and maintenance.

Precipitation over north-central Minnesota will persist this evening in response to the strengthening low pressure. Look for that precipitation to persist and propagate eastward over the Arrowhead by late evening.

Partial clearing is expected as the precipitation dwindles tonight.

THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND:

Behind the departing cold front tonight, a cooler and drier air mass will sweep into our region for Thursday. High temperatures will trend noticeably cooler and near to slightly above normal;, generally topping out in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Partial clearing is expected early, particularly south of US-2. By late morning, cold air advection atop modest warming should permit development of a broad shallow cumulus field. Gusty west to northwest winds will make it feel a bit brisk throughout the day. These winds will gradually diminish as we head through the afternoon and cold air advection weakens, setting the stage for a quiet and chilly evening with lows dipping into the 20s.

Quiet and pleasant weather holds across the area on Friday as the surface high pressure slides to our east. Winds will be lighter, and temperatures will quickly rebound into the upper 40s to upper 50s under plentiful sunshine. Highs Friday will be 5 to 12 degrees above normal. As we head into the weekend, return flow will pull even warmer air northward, resulting in temperatures climbing back to ten to twenty degrees above normal. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 50s to upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday and Sunday, while overnight lows remain well above freezing.

A warm front will slowly lift northward across the Midwest into southern Minnesota and southern Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Isentropic ascent north of the front enhanced by a northeastward propagating shortwave trough will bring a chance of showers to areas south of US-2 in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Rain amounts should be light.

EARLY NEXT WEEK:

By Monday and Tuesday, the chance for widespread precipitation return as a larger and better organized storm system moves into the central CONUS. Models are split on how that system will evolve. The latest GFS points to a cutoff low developing over the central Plains while the ECMWF features a more progressive trough lifting northeastward across the Upper Midwest. Cloud cover and periods of rain will keep conditions somewhat dreary, though temperatures are expected to remain on the mild side for late October. Forecast models suggest that this system could bring a beneficial soaking rain to much of the region before precipitation gradually tapers off toward the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Post-cold frontal stratus clouds are scattered about, leading to broken MVFR ceilings at times. This will be a prevalent feature, especially at DLH/HIB/INL, throughout the night and into tomorrow. Expect varying ceiling heights between VFR/MVFR. Other than that, expect breezy west winds through Thursday. Lingering clouds will clear out for Thursday evening, leading to VFR conditions.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Expect gusty west winds through today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. High pressure moves in tonight and winds will correspondingly lighten up. High pressure will remain around Friday and Friday night, leading to light winds. Winds become east/northeasterly Saturday, but remain light in speed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry weather is in the forecast with high pressure today and Friday. Min RH today will remain above 40 percent, and for most places above 50 percent. High pressure will result in slightly drier conditions Friday with parts of northwest Wisconsin seeing min RH values around the 30 to 40 percent range, but with light winds once again. More moisture moves in Saturday and Sunday with some rain chances at times. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal the next few days.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM early this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-140>145-148. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ146- 147-150.