textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Some very light snow/freezing drizzle is possible for far southern (this morning) and far northern (this evening) portions of the Northland today. Accumulations should remain fairly light. The best chance for any snow amounts up to an inch are right along the International Border.

- Fairly benign weather through Wednesday with gradually warming temperatures. Very slight chance of some light snow Wednesday morning.

- A larger, messy system could affect the area for Christmas and Boxing Day. Uncertainty on exact placement and accumulations remains very high but there is the potential for rain, freezing rain, and heavy wet snow which could affect holiday travel. There are some recent indications a second system could follow the first into the weekend.

- Temperatures well above normal will likely result in afternoon high temperatures above freezing today, Wednesday, and Thursday. Exact temperatures later in the week will be determined by storm track, so they remain somewhat uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Overarching ridging across the central CONUS is moving in early this morning. Along the front edge of this high pressure a weak warm frontal feature is pushing across the Dakotas into southern MN. Recent trends have seen this area of precipitation take quite a shift south, and what was previously expected to get as far north as the Twin Ports now may stay out of CWA entirely. Have left some marginal 15-30% PoPs for areas along southern Pine, Burnett, Washburn, Sawyer, and Price counties through this morning. This could manifest as a little light freezing drizzle and rain with very light ice and snow accumulations. Temperatures warm with incoming WAA today, and afternoon high temperatures should be a couple degrees above and below freezing, warmest south. Some light onshore winds along the North Shore could lead to some cloud and fog development for the higher terrain along the Sawtooths - this could be patchy freezing fog and lead to some rime ice development on trees/elevated surfaces.

A fast moving weak clipper brushes across the International Border this afternoon and evening bringing a chance for some sensible winter weather to the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead. This should mostly be light snow, but there are some concerns that dry air and a marginal warm nose might lead to some pockets of freezing drizzle/rain at times. Areas along the border should see 0.25-1" of new snowfall and a little glaze of ice could mix in here and there. As that system moves out a tighter pressure gradient could lead to a short period of stronger northwest winds Tuesday, enhanced along the North Shore. Have boosted these northwest winds a little with this forecast update, and areas along the North Shore will need to be monitored for a potential Wind Advisory.

Through the rest of the week our jet stream continues to arc further into Canada bringing an additional push of warm air into the Northland just in time for the Christmas holiday mid to late week. There are some indications in the 00Z and 06Z guidance for a little ridge runner type disturbance to bring some very light snow on Wednesday morning, but the signal has only just popped up. This ridging and WAA is expected to result in above freezing high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday but there is some uncertainty on just how warm it could get. As has been well discussed in the last couple AFDs, recent model guidance has done quite the dance with big shifts in placement and timing of a potential Christmas/Boxing Day storm - and that little tango is still ongoing with this forecast update. Ensembles are now largely showing some sort of fairly weak low pressure system ejecting out of the northern Rockies and zonally pushing across the Central Plains and Midwest, bringing sensible weather to the Northland. There is still a HUGE spectrum of precise solutions however, and a lot of uncertainty yet to deal with in the coming days. 00Z ensembles run the gamut with everything from the precipitation shield still staying well to our north and high temperatures skyrocketing into the upper 30s/low 40s to solutions where the low stays further south and delivers bands of freezing rain and heavy wet snow to the area. However, latest guidance does point to a better chance of precipitation falling than not, which has resulted in a notable increase of NBM PoPs for the Thursday afternoon - Friday timeframe. It has also pushed high temperature forecasts cooler as a more southerly storm track will not allow the warmest high temperature to get this far north. There is also now an increased presence of possible QPF for the Saturday-Sunday timeframe and an indication there could be a bit of a one-two punch as a secondary system follows the first into the weekend. For now, we'll continue to temporize on this storm and encourage you to stay tuned to the latest forecast while we refresh the page to see what the latest model guidance has to say.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

VFR stratus across the Northland will continue, though there are some thin areas. HYR has lowered to IFR for this hour, but should lift quickly with more VFR ceilings moving in from the west. Light snow showers are expected along the Borderlands tonight, bringing light snow to INL. Accumulations will be less than an inch, but IFR conditions are expected for most of the night. HIB ceilings will also lower to IFR, but snow showers should stay to the north. Winds will then veer from the southeast to the northwest overnight before increasing Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 244 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Fairly light easterly winds pick up today, but should largely stay below 15-20 knots. Winds shift to become southwesterly into Tuesday, and then northwesterly by Tuesday midday. These northwesterly winds could see a quick 6-12 hour period with gusts of 20-30 knots, especially along the North Shore, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed across all of Western Lake Superior. With warmer air temperatures, widespread heavy freezing spray is not expected. Winds swing back around from the south Wednesday, but aren't expected to be very strong.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.