textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical to near-critical fire weather conditions for the next several days.

- Cooler conditions continue through Sunday with a warming tend coming later in the week with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s by Friday.

- Rain and storm chances (50-70%) return Tuesday and again on Thursday (20-30%).

UPDATE

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

It is quiet and cool across the Northland this early morning. Northwest winds will continue today, though they will be slightly less breezy than yesterday as a high pressure moves in. Expect high temperatures to remain in the 40s and 50s. Kept lowered relative humidity values for today and Monday, as forecast models are struggling to accurately portray the extent of diurnal drying in the afternoons. Expect a few afternoon clouds to develop, but dry air and high pressure will keep things rain-free. Clear and cold conditions are expected again tonight with lows dropping into the upper 20s and lower 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Quiet Pattern This Weekend and Monday:

A cold front has exited the region and is now draped across the Ohio River Valley and through MO. This leaves our region with northwest winds streaming once again and cyclonic flow aloft. Some diurnal cumulus can be expected once again as we head into the afternoon hours. Light rain seems unlikely to make it to the ground today as model soundings have an inverted V shape and subsidence over the region will also act against precipitation. Overnight a small impulse passes over the tip of the Arrowhead that could lead to some light rain, but still low chances (<20%). Overall, quiet weather today with elevated fire weather concerns due to the dry conditions and gusty northwest winds.

Sunday's pattern remains similar to today with surface high pressure slowly nudging in from the Canadian Prairies. We will maintain the northwest winds streaming across the region, although not quite as breezy as today. High temps will still be in the 40s and 50s with another batch of diurnal cumulus developing in the afternoon. Squeezing out any moisture from this batch of clouds seems unlikely given the dry lower levels and subsidence in play.

Monday surface high pressure transitions over towards the Great Lakes which will allow southerly winds to return to the Northland. A warm front will start to advance in from the west but current guidance doesn't have the boundary moving into our CWA until late Monday. Still, the southerly winds will help to warm the region back into the 50s and 60s. Model soundings still show quite a bit of dry air up through the mid levels with high clouds starting to roll in ahead of the next weather system.

Next chance for Rain Tuesday:

Early Tuesday morning an upper level trough digs across southern Manitoba with a pair of surface lows expected to move across the Upper Midwest. A warm front propelled by a strong low level jet will cross through the Northland bringing rain chances of 50-70% across the region. Weak MUCAPE will accompany these showers which may induce some embedded thunderstorms. Pockets of steep mid level lapse rates could lead to small hail with any more robust cells that develop.

The system is expected to occlude along the International Border through the day which will keep PoPs running through most of Tuesday. Although a dry slot looks to nudge in across the Brainerd Lakes region in the afternoon which will cut the chances down a bit. The system then exits to the east early Wednesday.

Midweek-End of the Work Week:

Cool high pressure briefly sets up for Wednesday leading to a quiet day with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upper level ridge axis will push past the region for the latter part of the work week which will allow for warmer temperatures to return. Highs will climb into the 70s with some areas seeing 80s by Friday. The influx of warmer air and southwest flow will also prompt some increased rain and thunderstorm potential. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is suggesting a return of a low level jet as a low pressure system moves out of the Northern Plains late Thursday. For now, we are carrying a 20-30% chance for showers and to round out the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. A cumulus field is expected to form this afternoon with scattered ceilings around 5 kft. Northwest winds continue and gusts increase to up to 15 kts for the afternoon today, becoming calm overnight.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds around 5 to 15 knots will persist across Western Lake Superior today, generating waves of 1 foot or less. Winds will diminish and become light and variable tonight into Monday morning as surface high pressure moves over the area. By Monday afternoon, winds will become easterly to southerly at 5 to 10 knots. A passing system will bring likely rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms late Monday night through Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Very dry air remains over the region today and Monday. Minimum humidity will drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today, and Monday will be the driest day overall with most of the Northland in the 20 to 25 percent range. Northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph today will become light southerly winds on Monday. Because of the light winds under the surface high pressure on Monday, overall fire weather concerns will be limited.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.