textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming temperatures and dry today and Saturday.

- Rain shower chances return Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts will be light.

- A clipper will bring a chance of rain and snow showers to the Northland Sunday night through Monday night with light precipitation amounts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Today and Saturday...

Broad high pressure at the surface arrives today, with slightly drier air aloft. Expect afternoon cu but with less coverage than Thursday with lighter north winds. This will allow for warmer temperatures today. Highs will top out in the 40s along the shores of western Lake Superior and the low 50s in other parts of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

Quiet conditions continue through the day Saturday, as temperatures warm aloft and low level winds become westerly. Afternoon temps will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s along the shore lines, and in the upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. Most of the day will see sunny skies, with clouds increasing from the west late in the afternoon. Although moisture will be increasing during the afternoon, min RH values could be as low as 25 percent, with near-critical fire weather conditions.

Saturday night through next week...

A fast-moving clipper will bring a chance of scattered rain showers to the Northland Saturday night and early Sunday. Moisture appears limited with that system and precipitation amounts should be less than a tenth of an inch. A weak cool front will follow the clipper and turn winds northwesterly on Sunday. RH values will be as low as 25 percent, with winds a bit stronger at 8 to 15 mph with gusts of 10 to 20 mph. Sunday could present near-critical fire weather conditions.

A more robust clipper will move across the region Sunday night through Monday evening, arriving slightly earlier than previously expected. This clipper brings more moisture and a stronger push of cold air with it. Portions of the Arrowhead could see up to two tenths of an inch rain, that could mix with snow at times Monday evening. Gusty northwest winds and cooler temperatures are expected Monday and Monday night, with lows at or below freezing for the Northland, after a couple nights of above freezing lows.

In the wake of Monday's system a broad upper-level trough will set up over the western Great Lakes and Upper Midwest and persist through Friday, keeping the Northland in cool northwest flow aloft. Gusty northwest winds persist on Tuesday with highs in the low 40s to low 50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, RHs will be as low as 30 percent during the afternoon. With gusty northwest winds, near- critical fire weather conditions are possible. Cyclonic flow aloft and cool air advection will support scattered diurnal showers over the Northland Tuesday and Wednesday, with cool temperatures through mid week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at all sites. Sct to bkn mid- to high-level clouds will persist overnight, with light/variable or calm winds.

Expect another round of diurnally driven 6-8kft scattered to broken ceilings Friday. Winds increase to 5 to 8 kts out of the north on Friday, except near Lake Superior where winds off the lake will result in more of a northeast to easterly wind at DLH.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Friday and Saturday are shaping up fairly quiet with variable winds up to 10 knots, and a few gusts to 15 knots mainly near Grand Portage. A weak low pressure system will quickly pass through the region `Saturday night and will bring a chance of rain showers. A cold front will turn winds westerly on Sunday with slightly stronger winds of 5 to 15 knots with gusts of 10 to 20 knots. Winds turn southwesterly by early Monday morning and the northwesterly during the afternoon, as a stronger low pressure system passes to the north. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 knots are forecast with gusts of 20 to 30 knots. Those conditions will be hazardous to smaller vessels. There is a 10-15% chance of gales over the waters of the North Shore Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

High pressure will bring light north winds today, with RH values in the 25 to 35 percent. Highs will be below normal, in the low 40s to low 50s. A little warmer Saturday as winds turn to the southwest and moisture begins to increase. Highs will be in the upper 40s along the North Shore to the low 60s in central Minnesota. RH values will bottom out between 25 and 35 percent, but winds remain light. There are low chances for light rain Saturday night as a quick moving clipper crosses the area. Any rainfall accumulations will be less than one tenth of an inch.

Sunday is shaping up warmer with mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds will turn northwesterly behind the clipper early Sunday. Wind speeds and gusts will be a little stronger 8 to 15 mph sustained with gusts of 12 to 20 mph. Afternoon RH values will be in the 25 to 35 percent range. Both Saturday and Sunday have the potential for near- critical fire weather conditions over the northeast quarter of Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.