textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chance of rain or a rain/snow mix tonight with colder air to follow.

- Near normal temperatures will prevail for the coming week with precipitation chances returning late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Low pressure was located across northern Saskatchewan with an occluded front extending into Manitoba to near Winnipeg. A cold front then trailed back to the west across North Dakota and northern Montana. A warm front extended from this triple point near Winnipeg to into southern Minnesota, northeastern Iowa and further south into the Ohio Valley. Some radar returns were observed across north-central Minnesota, but this was not reaching the ground with dry air near the surface. Clouds are expected to increase through the evening and into tonight ahead of the cold front. Hi-res CAMs are trying to develop a line of showers along the front for late this evening and into early Saturday morning. Given the lack of moisture with this system and the dry air near the surface, have cut back on POPs with this update as this looks to be a mainly dry frontal passage. There may be a few sprinkles or perhaps some snowflakes in northern areas as the front passes, but any accumulations will be a trace at best. Any precipitation will exit to the east by mid to late morning Saturday with cooler air arriving through the day with breezy northwesterly winds. Gusts to 20 to 30 mph will be possible from late morning through evening with highs in the upper 30s to near 50. However, these may be midnight or early morning highs in many locations with temperatures holding steady or dropping through the day. Some stronger gusts to 35 to 40 mph cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening hours along the North Shore when CAA will be strongest.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected for Sunday into the new week with highs in the 30s and lower 40s, which will be within a few degrees of normal. Northwesterly to zonal flow will persist over the Upper Midwest for much of the week with the main storm track remaining to our south. A system will slide by to our south for Monday night into Tuesday, but has been trending further south. Have kept some low POPs in far southern areas but should this trend continue, would expect dry conditions to prevail. There are hints at a more active pattern heading into next weekend, but global models disagree on timing and placement or the systems. While there are chances for precipitation, these chances may miss the region as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will be passing through the region early this morning, bringing light VFR rain showers. Ahead of this cold front, LLWS will continue to be possible in KHYR, which will be ending following the frontal passage. Expect skies to clear later this morning as drier air moves in with northwest winds becoming breezy.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Easterly winds this evening will turn westerly then northwesterly overnight as a cold front moves through. Winds will increase after sunrise Saturday to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots. These winds will generate waves of 3 to 6 feet along the Bayfield Peninsula and Outer Apostle Islands. There remains a low chance (10-20%) of gales along the North Shore during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds will remain northwesterly on Sunday and slowly diminish through the day. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all the nearshore waters of Lake Superior. Surface high pressure will keep winds at 10 knots or less for Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-147-148. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140-141. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Saturday to 2 AM CST Sunday for LSZ142>146. Small Craft Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ150.