textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire conditions continue this afternoon over our southern area.

- A few showers/sprinkles will be possible this afternoon lingering into tonight (~20% chance) in the Arrowhead with more widespread showers Monday night into Tuesday (30-50% chance).

- Cooler conditions prevail through the weekend before a warming trend takes over for next week. Highs reach the 70s and 80s for most by the end of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

This morning, an area of showers have passed over the Brainerd Lakes region. This activity has only produced a trace of rain thus far and will continue to exit to the southeast through daybreak. As the sun rises today, northwest winds will intensify, occasionally gusting between 20 and 25 mph by this afternoon. Because humidity levels did not recover well overnight, we are expecting another day of elevated fire weather concerns. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range for most of the Northland. Unseasonably cool high temperatures in the upper 40s and mid 50s and cloud cover will provide a small buffer against near-critical conditions across our north, but warmer temperatures bordering 60 and mostly sunny skies will lead to RH below 25% in our southern areas.

Later this afternoon and into the overnight hours, a weak upper-level disturbance and continued cold air advection will trigger scattered sprinkles or light showers, particularly across the tip of the Arrowhead. As temperatures reach below freezing tonight, any lingering moisture may transition to light snow flurries. Total accumulations will be negligible, likely no more than a trace.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Weak low pressure was located just south of Winnipeg early this afternoon within a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft. Light radar returns were evident across northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin, but very dry air near the surface was preventing any of this from reaching the ground. High clouds will continue to overspread the region this afternoon, but are not expected to limit mixing much with RH values falling below 25% over most of the Northland. These low RH values combined with breezy west to northwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph this afternoon will lead to critical to near-critical fire weather conditions over much of Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for southern Cass and Crow Wing counties with an SPS for near-critical fire weather conditions over much of the remainder of the Northland. Highs this afternoon will be in the middle 50s to upper 60s.

A shortwave embedded within a jet aloft will dive southeastward across the northern High Plains tonight into Minnesota. This will bring some low POPs for showers to our southern zones overnight before exiting shortly after sunrise. Only a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation is expected with most of that being lost to moistening the column so rain can reach the ground. Saturday then looks dry, breezy and slightly cooler with highs in the upper 40s and 50s. Another weak shortwave in the cyclonic flow regime aloft will move across northwestern Ontario during the day on Saturday, but any precipitation associated with this looks to remain north of the international border.

Surface high pressure arrives for Sunday as cool cyclonic flow persists aloft. Highs will be slightly cooler in the middle 40s to middle 50s with northwest winds of 5 to 15 mph. Afternoon RH values may drop below 25% in some areas which will lead to some fire weather concerns, although winds are expected to be lighter.

As the high departs on Monday, southerly flow will increase on the backside of the low bringing warmer temperatures and a bit more moisture into the Upper Midwest. This warming trend is expected to continue through the week. Highs Monday will be in the middle 50s to lower 60s, but moisture will be slow to return which may lead to another day of very low RH values and potential fire weather concerns, albeit with light winds.

Monday night into Tuesday will see an area of low pressure move southeast from Manitoba into northwestern Ontario and drag a cold front through the Northland. This will lead to widespread showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder as it passes. There are some timing and spatial differences with this system which could impact what areas see rainfall and potentially not see rainfall. Highs Tuesday will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. There are a few more chances for rainfall over the latter half of the week, but the main story will be the increasing temperatures. Highs by Friday look to reach into the 70s and lower 80s with 60s near Lake Superior.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds are a tad stronger than previously forecasted so this updated set of TAFs have adjusted accordingly. Winds will taper off later this evening. Tomorrow will be similar to today with the exception of winds being weaker.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Expect northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots today on Western Lake Superior, with the highest gusts along the North Shore. While gusts on the lake are expected to be lower, some strong wind gusts from land could lead to occasional gusts above 20 kts immediately along the shore. However, due to this, no headlines are anticipated at this time. Waves will generally remain 2 feet or less through the weekend. Winds will shift to the southwest by Sunday afternoon and decrease to 5 to 15 knots as high pressure arrives.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected today and Sunday. For today, northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph will gust to 20 or 25 mph. Minimum relative humidity has been lowered to the 20 to 25 percent range due to poor overnight recovery combined with expected mostly sunny conditions today across our southern counties. While winds decrease on Sunday and Monday, very low humidity will persist, keeping fire concerns present until light rain (<0.2") arrives Tuesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.