textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow (less then 1") today as a warm front moves across the region.

- Strong winds Friday with gusts in excess of 40 mph. Snow Squalls may develop in the afternoon across northern MN

- Temps will rapidly warm into the 40s by Friday before falling off again into Saturday thanks to a strong cold front. Afterwards look for a more gradual warm up heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

A warm front is moving in from the west and producing some light snow showers across northern MN. This frontal boundary is set to propagate through the region today with snow exiting to our east by the afternoon. This forecast package has made a few edits in the near term including the reduction of freezing drizzle as the front departs. The latest 00Z guidance that has come in shows much better saturation aloft then in the previous runs which leans into a all snow solution. One interesting signal that has developed in the high res guidance is a cluster of snow showers moving out of the Red River Valley and through north central MN into NW WI behind the warm front. The RAP would suggest that these will be fueled by a corridor of enhanced 700mb FGEN. To account for this we have added some 30% PoPs along its path through the morning hours. Impacts with these snow showers will be just a quick burst of snow that briefly reduces visibility. Overall, low impact snow threat today with northern MN seeing 0.5" to 1" of snow accumulation and a 0.5" or less for NW WI.

Friday:

A strong low pressure system is set to move across Manitoba and into Ontario Friday. It's associated precipitation shield looks to largely miss the Northland but we will still see some impactful weather from the traveling low. The pressure gradient will increase across the Northland leading to gusty winds. The EFI for wind gusts across northern MN are around 0.8 and just across the International Border they are sitting around 0.9 with a shift of tails of 1. Each of the last 3 model runs has seen an increase in the potential winds. Sounding profiles show deep mixing with wind speeds at the top of the inversion around 50 mph. Some momentum will be loss as it gets transferred down to the surface but widespread potential for wind gusts of 40 mph looks increasingly likely, especially over northern MN and the North Shore.

One other impact to be weary of is the chance for snow squalls to develop in the afternoon and evening across northern MN as the strong cold front advances southeast. Surface instability could be on the order of 50 J/kg with steep lapse rates up through 2 km. The parameter space become less favorable as we move into the later evening hours and the front moves into NW WI.

The weekend:

The cold front will move south of the region to start the weekend before its baroclinic zone stalls out over the Midwest. While activity can be expected along this zone the Northland looks to be far enough north and under the influence of high pressure that will mitigate our precipitation chances. At this time there are no strong signals for any impactful weather as we round out the weekend and head into next week.

Temperature roller coaster through the week:

Warmer today with highs climbing into the 30s and low 40s. Even warmer temperatures for Friday prior to the onset of a cold front in the afternoon. A strong cold front digs through the Northland from the north Friday afternoon and will see temperatures back in the single digits and teens for Saturday. From here we will see another warming trend, albeit slower then the last one. Look for temps to creep back into the 30s by early next week and gradually ascend to the 40s by midweek.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1123 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are currently in place across the Northland. A warm front is advancing out of the west and will bring some light snow to the region before exiting later this morning. Ceilings will fall to MVFR and visibility will be reduced with snowfall. Behind the frontal passage there is a signal in the high res guidance for some snow showers to quickly propagate west to east that may impact HIB/DLH. All snowy activity is expected to taper off by the afternoon with VFR conditions returning across the region.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 116 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Light winds across the western Lake Superior today as a warm front works in from the west. Friday, strong winds will rush across the waters once again with gales likely. Storm force winds will also be possible along the North Shore in the evening. Winds will initially be out of the southwest and then turn to out of the NW Friday evening as a cold front moves through.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for MNZ020-021. WI...None. MARINE...Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LSZ140-141. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LSZ142>146-150. High Wind Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LSZ142.