textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will spread across northern and central Minnesota early this morning and continue through the day.

- A dry and unseasonably warm Friday is expected across the Northland, with high temperatures reaching the mid 60s to low 70s.

- Periodic shower chances return this weekend, followed by a more organized system bringing widespread rain early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An area of rain showers are spreading into the area from the west this morning, and will steadily spread east through the day today. This area of rainfall is being driven by a fairly potent shortwave which is moving across the region today, together with a narrow plume of gulf moisture to bring us this much needed rain. The highest rainfall amounts, ranging from a quarter to a half inch, are expected from the Brainerd Lakes area northward toward International Falls. As this precipitation encounters high pressure and drier low-level air over Wisconsin, it will weaken. Therefore, locations across northwest Wisconsin and for the tip of the Arrowhead will likely remain completely dry today. High temperatures this afternoon will range from the upper 50s in cloudy and rainy parts of Minnesota to the upper 60s in northwestern Wisconsin.

Ridging aloft builds over the area for Friday, but with that plume of moisture still lingering over the area it will be partly to mostly cloudy, but no precipitation is expected. Southerly flow will bring warmer air into the region, and despite the clouds we should get highs in the 60s to low 70s. Another shortwave will ride over the upper level ridge and bring us another wave of precipitation Saturday afternoon and night, again mainly for northeastern Minnesota. There may be a few rumbles of thunder Saturday afternoon. Rainfall amounts with this wave do not look like they will be very high, perhaps a tenth of an inch. Sunday will be another generally quiet day with lingering clouds and perhaps some sprinkles. High temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will be in the 60s for most of the Northland.

Early next week looks active as an upper level trough and a fairly strong surface low pressure system will move out of the Rockies and across the plains to the Great Lakes. This system will likely bring a swath of widespread, beneficial rainfall to the Northland, probably in the Monday night through Tuesday time frame, with some lingering precipitation into Wednesday. Temperatures will remain mild for Monday, but then a cooler airmass sliding in behind the rainfall will bring high temperatures back down into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An area of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions is spreading into the area this morning, and will continue today and tonight. Ceilings and visibilities will gradually deteriorate through the day, with KINL and KBRD dropping to MVFR and then IFR by 00z this evening, and KHIB and KDLH dropping to MVFR by 00z, then to IFR this evening. Overnight, the worst IFR/LIFR conditions to be found from KBRD to KINL and KHIB, with better conditions to the east. KHYR to remain VFR through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Stronger winds from yesterday have relaxed as of early this morning across western Lake Superior. For today, expect southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots, gradually veering to the east by late afternoon. Wave heights will remain relatively calm, generally at 1 to 2 feet or less. Easterly winds wil remain generally light at less than 10 kts tonight through Friday night. A passing system may bring some showers to the lake this afternoon and evening, but thunder is not anticipated.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Increasing cloud cover and moisture will keep fire weather concerns low across the region today. Showers spreading across Minnesota will provide a quarter to half inch of wetting rain for areas from the Brainerd Lakes north through the International Falls areas, with amounts tapering off significantly to the east, with little to no precipitation expected for northwest Wisconsin or the tip of the Arrowhead. Despite the lack of rain, minimum relative humidity values in northwest Wisconsin will remain above 50 percent today, and above 70 percent for Minnesota. Friday will be dry and warmer, with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 40 to 60 percent range. Southerly winds will remain generally light through Friday, generally around 5 to 10 mph. Shower chances will return this weekend and persist into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.