textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Nearly all areas are dry through Friday evening.

- Our next chance for precipitation is this upcoming weekend, with off-and-on showers and storms.

- A period or two of strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

The large departing low pressure over eastern Canada still continues to linger for parts of the Northland, and another round of diurnal clouds will fill the sky Thursday as well as low chances for sprinkles to light rain showers across the Minnesota Arrowhead. Little to no accumulations expected. Cold temperatures will follow Thursday night in the low 40s and upper 30s.

Chances for showers and storms return Friday night into Saturday. The environment for Friday night into Saturday isn't great with a low level inversion in place and low mid level lapse rates aloft that would inhibit storm growth overnight past a few rumbles of thunder and periods of heavy rain. The best chances for some stronger storms are still Sunday night into Monday daytime.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

For the rest of the day, expect widely scattered off-and-on rain showers to continue into this evening before slowly ending from west to east across the Northland. Gusty northwest winds will also reach up to 30 mph early this afternoon, but these winds will begin decreasing late this afternoon and into the evening hours.

As we move into Thursday and Friday, dry weather will dominate for nearly all of our region. However, a few more localized and brief rain showers are forecast for the tip of the Arrowhead on Thursday afternoon. As skies clear and light winds become calm, a chilly night is forecast Thursday night, cold spots will reach the low 40s and pockets dropping into the upper 30s by early Friday morning.

By late Friday night into Saturday morning, an incoming warm air advection regime will set up and bring our next round of thunderstorm chances. These periodic thunderstorm chances will last through much of the weekend as low pressure traverses the Northern Plains. Strong thunderstorms are possible this weekend, depending on exactly where the warm front sets up over the area.

Current trends keep the best potential for strong storms along and south of the Highway 2 corridor, particularly from the Brainerd Lakes to the Interstate 35 corridor and into inland northwest Wisconsin. As the low pressure passes through the Upper Midwest Sunday PM into Monday daytime, there is a slightly better environment progged in medium range global guidance for strong thunderstorms to maybe even scrape the levels of severe weather. If strong thunderstorms can form this weekend, Sunday PM is most likely across much of the region south of US Hwy 2 and Monday being far eastern Minnesota into much of northwest Wisconsin. Drier and quieter conditions are favored to return by next Tuesday.

A slightly warmer airmass arrives this weekend and persist into early next week. Temperatures on Sunday are forecast to reach the mid 80s, and if the warmer guidance verifies, some spots in the warm sector could even scrape the upper 80s. However, the exact location of weekend storms and lingering sky cover will heavily influence whether these warmer temperatures are realized.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Patchy fog, locally dense including at HYR, dissipates towards 12-14Z this morning. VFR conditions under mostly sunny skies expected to prevail today and this evening, along with some FEW to SCT VFR diurnal cumulus late this morning through around sunset. Winds become northwesterly at 5-10 kt today, with occasional gusts to 12-15 kt this late this morning through early evening. Patchy dense fog likely returns tonight, with the best potential at HIB and HYR. Fog mention may also be needed at other terminals with future TAF updates if probabilities increase.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Calm conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with winds remaining around 10 kts or less and waves less than a foot. A few light rain showers and sprinkles are possible today along the North Shore, but will have little to no impact. Storm chances return Friday night into Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1115 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A drier airmass arrives today into Friday, dropping minimum relative humidity into the 35 to 45 percent range. However, northwest wind gusts will diminish to 15 mph or less today and even lighter for Friday under a high pressure. The next round of off- and- on thunderstorm chances begins early Saturday morning and lasts through much of the weekend. Widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast, but localized amounts are most likely along and south of US Hwy 2 into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.