textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances return tomorrow afternoon into early Tuesday morning. There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) west of a line from INL to Walker, with a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) eastward to a line from near Ely to Mille Lacs Lake. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats.

- Mostly dry with seasonable temps for mid week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

Surface high pressure is pushing southward across the region this afternoon, with winds turning to the south across most of northeast MN, with more variable directions over northwest WI. Mostly sunny skies have pushed temps into the upper 70s to low 80s for most. Expect locations closer to Lake Superior to remain in low to mid 70s.

Tonight, onshore flow could lead to areas of fog at the head of the Lake and into portions of the NW WI. Probabilities of vis below 0.5 mile are lower tonight, with less coverage than we saw this morning.

The mid level ridge axis will cross the area tonight, with some moisture increasing as low level winds become southerly. CAMs show a scattering of showers overnight, with with a touch of drier air in the low levels will maintain a dry forecast overnight.

Monday/Tuesday:

High pressure is pushed to the southeast by tomorrow morning, allowing for broad southerly winds and warm air advection to take hold of the region. During the morning hours a strong low level jet is expected to develop across the Northern Plains which will increase the chances of some elevated storms to develop in the Red River Valley. Expect to see storms to our west (and possibly north) Monday morning. As that activity propagates northeastward, a storm or two could move into northwestern portions of the forecast area. A couple hundred J/kg of MUCAPE, high lapse rates, and bulk shear of 40-50kts could lead to severe storms that generate large hail. High res guidance continues to favor better chances for this scenario remaining to our west through the morning hours.

A line of showers and storms will develop to our west ahead of a cold front Monday afternoon, and move through the area late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Despite any morning shower/storm activity and cloud cover, the region will see ample recovery with southerly flow promoting warm advection and pushing CAPE upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. Bulk shear will still be bountiful with an upper level jet rounding and upper level low moving into Manitoba. Supercells will be possible capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Showers and storms will continue to move across the region through the overnight period with the severe risk fading in the early morning hours. Thereafter, showers and a few weaker storms will continue through the region Tuesday as the cold front pushes west to east. Rainfall totals from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning as high as 0.75in are possible across portions of Kooch and Itasca counties, with amounts dropping off to around 0.10in closer to Lake Superior.

Mid week:

High pressure over the region for Wednesday temperatures staying in the 70s. Temperatures will slowly increase through the end of the work week with intermittent rain chances possible as the upper level pattern turns more zonal.|

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Morning low stratus/fog has lifted, except for near the head of the lake. Otherwise, there area a few areas of cu/strato- cu with VFR heights. Relatively quiet, and VFR, conditions expected at forecast terminals for the next 24 hrs. There is a low chance of low clouds and stratus off the head of the lake again tonight, but probs are lower and expected cloud heights/vis not as low. Will not include at DLH or HYR at this time.

Winds will generally be from the southeast through much of the period, with a turn to the south Monday morning. Cannot rule out a gust of 16-18kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Breezy northeast winds continue this afternoon but are expected to remain less than 25 kts. Waves will build to around 2ft at the head of the Lake. Monday maintain an easterly component Monday, at 5-10 kts. Monday night showers and storms will enter from the west with winds changing to out of the southwest around 10-15 kts. With gusts to near 25kts, small crafts might be needed Monday night into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 139 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

High pressure over the region today with low fire weather concerns. Winds over northwest WI maintain a more variable direction this afternoon, while winds over northeast MN will be predominantly from the south to southeast, with gusts to 18mph. Min RHs will largely be in the 40s this afternoon, with some spots dropping to the 33-38% range. Rain and storm chances return tomorrow. Looking at potentially two different rounds. The first one in the morning will likely be the weakest in the batch, and might result in only an increase in cloud cover. Late afternoon and overnight we could see strong to severe storms with a cold front marching west to east.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.