textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms are possible across the Northland through the day Saturday, with the best chance across northern Minnesota and the International Border.

- Next chance for precipitation Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A few stronger storms could be possible.

- Near normal temperatures persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

While conditions are fairly mundane this afternoon, increasing clouds and chances for precipitation are expected overnight and through the day Saturday. As the tip of an upper level ridge propagates over our area, a return of moisture along with some 500mb vort maxes should be enough to spur the development of areas of scattered rain showers with a weak surface low pressure system. All together, the forcing is weak and ongoing convection to the south could limit the amount of available moisture. Most rainfall amounts will probably be 0.1-0.25" or less. A narrow swath of instability could spur some thunderstorm development but no severe storms are expected. Precipitation activity will likely come in the form of on and off light to moderate rain showers beginning late tonight into early Saturday morning and continuing through most of the day and possibly into the evening. Most precipitation should dissipate overnight into Sunday. However, warm late summer water temperatures on Lake Superior will be met with cool overnight temperatures sweeping in from the northwest Saturday night. This could lead to some light lake effect rain along the South Shore Sunday morning before air temperatures warm up.

Beyond the morning lake effect, Sunday should be a mostly dry day with dropping dew points. That drier airmass sticks around through Monday midday before the next area of increased PWATs starts to push in from the Dakotas. That moisture should converge along a cold front stemming from a shortwave disturbance to our north and sweep over the Northland late Monday into Tuesday. Pockets of instability mixed with 40-50 knots bulk shear may be able to develop some stronger to isolated severe storms, but time of day (overnight) could limit the severe threat.

As we remain on the north side of the ridge through the 7 day period, expect temperatures to stay largely right around normal with high temperatures in the 70s to mid 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions with occasional gusty east winds continue through this afternoon and into Saturday morning. Areas of rain showers are expected to start to move across the region into Saturday morning and persist, but activity will be scattered with the best chances for the further north terminals. At INL, HIB, and BRD could see some lower ceilings starting to move in through Saturday morning as well into MVFR and IFR categories. Winds should gradually become more southerly through Saturday morning. While there is an isolated chance for a thunderstorm, the best chance would be beyond the current TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Strong northeast winds continue today, with speeds gradually declining overnight into Saturday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. A steady northeast breeze is expected to continue through the day Saturday with scattered rain showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms possible. Overnight into Sunday, winds will switch to become northwesterly with a few gusts up to 15 knots possible, particularly along the North Shore. Expect a gradual shift from northwest to southwest into and through the day Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Increasing clouds are expected today, along with a light southeast breeze, which may gust 15-20 mph overnight. Late tonight the first rain showers could start to enter north-central Minnesota with increasing chances across the Northland through the day Saturday. Precipitation activity will likely come in the form of on and off light to moderate rain showers beginning late tonight into early Saturday morning and continuing through most of the day and possibly into the evening. Some light rain could persist into Sunday morning along the South Shore of Lake Superior. Rainfall amounts have trended back up slightly, generally expecting 0.1-0.25" or less, with the possibility of some locally slightly higher totals with any non-severe thunderstorms that develop. Sunday will see northwest flow return, along with drier air. Afternoon RH will likely drop back into the 30-45% range, but could be locally affected by any areas that receive higher rainfall amounts the previous day. That drier air will stick around into Monday before a cold front moves through late Monday into Tuesday bringing the next chance of precipitation.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Saturday for LSZ143>146.