textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler conditions continue with a warming trend coming later in the week with highs climbing into the 70s and 80s by Friday.

- Mostly sunny tomorrow with very dry conditions expected again. Lighter winds will be on tap but with the lack of recent rains will lead to near critical fire weather conditions again.

- Rain and storm chances (50-70%) return Tuesday and again on Thursday (20-30%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Quiet Pattern This Weekend and Monday:

Surface high pressure is nudging in from the Canadian Prairies today with northwest winds still streaming across the surface. Cyclonic flow aloft mixed with below freezing 850 temperatures managed to generate some isolated snow showers across far northern MN this morning with some lingering light rain and sprinkles possible through the afternoon. Overall, most of the region can expect another relatively cool and dry day with diurnally driven cumulus populating in the afternoon. Overnight, the high pressure will move directly overhead leading to calm winds and clear skies. Rapid radiational cooling is expected with low temperatures for Monday morning expected to be in the 20s.

Monday surface high pressure transitions over towards the Great Lakes which will allow southerly winds to return to the Northland. A warm front will start to advance in from the west but current guidance doesn't have the boundary moving into our CWA until late Monday. Still, the southerly winds will help to warm the region back into the 50s and 60s. Model soundings still show quite a bit of dry air up through the mid levels with high clouds starting to roll in ahead of the next weather system. Min RHs may drop as low as 15% in areas that remain cloud free. Fortunately enhanced winds are not expected to coincide with these very dry conditions.

Next chance for Rain Tuesday:

Early Tuesday morning an upper level trough digs across southern Manitoba with a pair of surface lows expected to move across the Upper Midwest. A warm front propelled by a strong low level jet will cross through the Northland bringing rain chances of 50-70% across the region. Weak MUCAPE will accompany these showers which may induce some embedded thunderstorms. Pockets of steep mid level lapse rates could lead to small hail with any more robust cells that develop.

Both the Euro and GFS are starting to lean towards strengthening the surface low moving over central MN and having it in the vicinity of NW WI by Tuesday afternoon. This could introduce some surface based instability for NW WI as a cold front swings through increasing the chances for stronger storms. However, low track and placement remain inconsistent between models runs so confidence remains low at this time.

Midweek-End of the Work Week:

Cool high pressure briefly sets up for Wednesday leading to a quiet day with highs in the 50s and 60s. An upper level ridge axis will push past the region for the latter part of the work week which will allow for warmer temperatures to return. Highs will climb into the 70s with some areas seeing 80s by Friday. The influx of warmer air and southwest flow will also prompt some increased rain and thunderstorm potential. The 12Z suite of deterministic guidance is suggesting a return of a low level jet as a low pressure system moves out of the Northern Plains late Thursday. For now, we are carrying a 20-30% chance for showers and to round out the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions through the forecast period. Cloud cover is dense with scattered to broken ceilings across most of the region which will persist through the afternoon. Northwest winds continue to stream with a few gusts around 20 kts, These winds will also taper off this evening. Clear skies and calm winds overnight as high pressure moves over the Northland.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Northwest winds continue to stream across the Lake with speeds around 5 to 10 kts. High pressure moves over the Lake tomorrow providing variable wind directions. Tuesday morning southeast winds will meet the North Shore and could build some wave heights of 3-4 ft for a brief time before winds start to turn. Westerly winds will filter in Tuesday afternoon and slowly overtake the Lake. Additionally, rain and storm chances return Monday night and persist through Tuesday across Western Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Dense cloud cover this afternoon with some rain/snow showers across the Arrowhead has drastically decreased the fire weather threat for today. Satellite does show some clearing over the Brainerd Lakes Region but Min RHs are not expected to drop below 25%. Wind gusts are weaker than yesterday with the top end around 20 mph this afternoon.

High pressure moves in overnight leading to clear skies and a very dry Monday. High clouds will start to spill in from the west but we still expect Min RHs to fall into the low 20s. If cloud cover is slow to arrive we could see those fall even lower into the teens. High pressure will be departing to the east through the day with southerly winds filtering in, gusts in the afternoon will be in the low teens.

Rain returns Monday night and through Tuesday as a system moves out of the Northern Plains. Not expecting a soaking rain with most locations expected to max out near 0.10" The better rain totals still look to be focused across the Arrowhead where we still have QPF totals of 0.25-0.50" There will be some embedded thunderstorms which may lead to some localized heavier rates at times.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.