textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant, near normal temperatures through next week with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

- Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday night, with sporadic precipitation chances this weekend into next week.

- The risk for severe weather is low over the next week, but cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon over northwest Wisconsin.

UPDATE

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Chances for showers and storms returns today and tonight. Chances remain lower (<40%) for northeast Minnesota due to lingering dry air, but moisture will continue to increase into Friday, and northwest Wisconsin will have a better likelihood to see precipitation. A cap is expected to remain in place Friday, but a few strong elevated storms are still possible with hail up to an inch and gusty winds up to 60 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Dry surface high pressure will be in place across northeast Minnesota the rest of today and into Thursday. A cold front will enter northeast Minnesota late Thursday evening and slowly move east across northwest Wisconsin through the day on Friday. Initially, low level moisture is expected to mix out through the afternoon ahead of the front to favor a dry forecast prior to 00Z. Thereafter, as low level moisture recovers, the low level jet modestly increases and a series of mid level impulses propagate along the International Border south of the main wave, scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday night across northeast Minnesota with the passage of the front. With limited buoyancy, severe weather is not expected.

Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase on Friday with daytime heating and bit better buoyancy building as the front slowly moves across the area. A few stronger storms with small hail and wind gusts over 40 mph are expected across northwest Wisconsin. However, the overall threat for severe weather is low.

For the rest of the forecast for this weekend and into next week, near zonal flow is favored across the lower 48. This overall large scale flow pattern favors near normal temperatures with high temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s. The main storm track is favored to remain south of the Northland, however, low predictability impulses embedded in the faster flow aloft and daytime heating would present a near daily, sporadic coverage of rain showers and thunderstorms (isolated to scattered coverage). Overall, with limited buoyancy, severe weather is not likely.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period. INL has strong winds aloft leading to LLWS that will last for the next couple hours. Southwest winds will increase today with gusts up to 25 kts expected this afternoon. There is a chance for more LLWS tonight across multiple terminals ahead of the passage of a cold front.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Winds will increase out of the southwest today, leading to hazardous conditions to small craft later this morning into tonight. Wind gusts up to 25 kts are expected, and waves around 4-5 ft are expected up near Grand Portage.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Today will start out similar to yesterday with dewpoints around 50 degrees. However, southerly flow will increase dewpoints throughout the day so minimum RHs will be slightly higher with values in the upper 30s and 40s. Winds out of the southwest will also increase today, with winds up to 15 mph and gusts to 25 mph. Chances for showers and storms return later this afternoon and will linger into Friday. Most will see little to no accumulation, but areas in northwest Wisconsin could see up to a half inch Friday evening.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT Friday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>146.