textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers exiting by early this morning. Portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin could see a few sprinkles from late this morning through early evening.

- Otherwise, dry and sunny for this weekend with lower dewpoints and seasonal high temperatures. Breezy northwest winds for today.

- Chilly Saturday and Sunday nights with low temperatures in the 40s and possibly upper 30s in the typical cold spots. No frost is forecast at this time.

- The next chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms is early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today - Sunday:

A few remnant rain showers in north-central WI exit to the east by early this morning as a cold front finishes moving through the Northland. Additional accumulation of around 0.1-0.2" or less expected.

The rest of this weekend shapes up to be largely dry as northwest flow aloft sets up along with surface high pressure. We may be able to squeeze out a few sprinkles in the MN Arrowhead and portions of northwest WI later this morning through early evening with post-cold front cold-air advection (CAA). A drier low-level airmass in place may keep most of this precipitation in the form of virga rather than precipitation actually reaching the ground. Regardless, measurable precipitation is not forecast. Winds will also be gusty out of the northwest today up to 20-25 mph before becoming light to calm tonight and mostly light on Sunday.

High temperatures remain near normal in the 69-78 F range for most of the Northland this weekend. The drier airmass, lighter winds, and mostly clear skies Saturday night and Sunday night will result in chillier low temperatures in the low to upper 40s across much of the Northland. The typical cold spots will likely even touch the upper-30s, though frost is currently not expected.

Monday - Wednesday:

Shortwave ridging aloft on Monday keeps the Northland dry most of the day. However, an upper-level cut-off low and its attendant surface low traversing the Canadian Prairies this weekend into Monday eventually works its way into and through portions of the Upper Midwest for Monday night into Wednesday, bringing periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Initial warm-frontal showers/storms move into northeast Minnesota for Monday night, then the warm sector of the surface low sets up over portions of the Northland daytime Tuesday, and then the cold front moves through the area from west to east late Tuesday through Tuesday night before exiting the area on Wednesday as the vertically stacked low pressure moves into the Great Lakes. While there is likely to still be some slight adjustments in timing of this system, if the warm sector can set up over the Northland on daytime Tuesday in conjunction with peak heating, there is a non-zero chance that we could see some of the scattered storms become strong to severe ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening as instability maximizes along with ample 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-40 knots. The picture for this will become clearer as we get into early next week and the forecast mesoscale features come into better focus. Expect scattered shower and non-severe storm chances to linger into Wednesday as cyclonic flow sets up over the region behind the departing low pressure.

With rainfall likely to be scattered with this weather system, precipitation could be hit or miss for portions of the area. The fairly progressive nature of this system also limits residence time and heavy rainfall potential. NBM probabilities of 0.25" or greater Monday night through Wednesday currently range from 20-30% in the Brainerd Lakes into I-35 corridor, to 50-80% in much of the Arrowhead and northern MN, highest near the International Border. Probabilities in much of northwest WI range from 30-60%. Probabilities for >1" fall off substantially to effectively less than 20% across the Northland, with potential likely to be localized to where several thunderstorms move over a given location.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer early next week with highs in the 70s to low-80s Monday through Wednesday and even a few spots of mid-80s on Tuesday, while lows Monday night and Tuesday night fall into the upper 40s to 50s.

Late Next Week:

The second half of the upcoming work week looks to remain in northwest flow aloft, with surface high pressure returning and bringing drier conditions again as precipitation chances Thursday and Friday remain at 15% or less. Global ensemble guidance diverges regarding the mid- and upper-level pattern going into next weekend, leading to lower confidence in the forecast beyond late next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A few remnant showers are moving out of north-central Wisconsin early during the current overnight as a cold front moves through. Behind this, expect clearing skies with very patchy fog potential in the early morning. Have included some MVFR fog mention at KHYR. However, farther behind the front winds may stay just strong enough above calm to prevent denser fog development at other terminals. Latest weather model guidance shows a 20% or less chance of fog with visibility of 1 mile or less at DLH/HIB/BRD/HYR. If winds go calm, these probabilities may increase, especially for BRD where showers and thunderstorms occurred this past evening.

Gusty northwesterly winds increase this morning through early evening, with gusts to around 20-25 kts along with some diurnal cumulus developing late this morning through early evening at most terminals.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Northwest winds of 5 to 15 kts are expected today, with daytime gusts of 15-20 kts for the North Shore to Twin Ports and in the Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor. Winds become northerly tonight into early Sunday morning at 15 kts or less for most except up to 20 kts near Grand Portage. Winds become light and variable for the remainder of Sunday into Sunday night before becoming light out of the east to northeast on Monday. No thunderstorms are expected until at least late Monday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A secondary cold front exiting northwest Wisconsin early this morning will lead to an end of isolated showers in north-central Wisconsin prior to sunrise. Breezy northwesterly flow and drier air arrives behind the front for today. Expect afternoon RH today to dip to 30-45% range, with some locally lower values possible in the I-35 corridor east into the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. This will be accompanied by late morning through early evening wind gusts up to 20 mph, locally to 25 mph. Min RH on Sunday drops slightly lower to 30-40% for most areas, with potential for the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens to touch the mid to upper-20s with peak afternoon mixing. Winds will be lighter out of the North on Sunday, though a few gusts to 10-15 mph are possible in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin during the day. Fairly dry again with 30-45% min RH on Monday before moisture increases Monday night through Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches and moves through the area. There will be scattered shower and thunderstorm chances for Monday night through Tuesday, with some wrap around showers/general thunderstorms chances lingering into Wednesday. Widespread, heavy rainfall is not anticipated so appreciable drought relief is not expected. Some spots that see repeated thunderstorms move overhead early next week could pick up locally higher amounts in excess of an inch, but this would be very localized at best and with a less than 20% chance of occurring.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.