textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light to moderate rain is likely tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Widespread rain is likely Monday into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts around or over one inch are possible for many areas. Thunderstorms and some minor flooding is possible. - Temperatures will trend a bit cooler next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

This Morning through Tonight: The weather is very quiet out there this morning with higher clouds moving in from the southwest ahead of a slow-moving cold front. Expect plenty of clouds out there as a result today, and rain will be moving in aloft with a stream of moisture nearly co-located with the front. There will be plenty of dry air near the surface today, so nearly all rain falling aloft will not make it to the surface. Tonight, however, the atmosphere should saturate and a "ribbon" of rain is expected to move northeast, impacting a large chunk of the region. Amounts in general should be pretty light with a tenth of an inch or two, but a somewhat narrow corridor of around half an inch is certainly possible. Right now, northeast Minnesota has the best chance for that. A few rumbles of thunder are possible tonight, but with very weak and limited instability, thunder should be pretty uncommon.

Sunday through Tuesday: The cold front will essentially become stationary overhead on Sunday. The initial round of rain should end around Sunday morning as we lose some upper-level lift, but there could be some showers still hanging around. The bigger story will be an upper-level trough and an attendant surface low expected to develop and move northeast through the Midwest into the northern Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. There's actually pretty decent agreement on the storm track and timing, so that lends some higher confidence to the overall forecast. PWATs getting up to around 1" with a Gulf/Pacific connection should bring some good potential for 1"+ rainfall amounts for much of the region (40-60% chance), and perhaps some ~1.5" amounts (10-30% chance).

Convection potential looks low, but non-zero with perhaps a few hundred J/kg sliding through Monday afternoon and evening. Better chances for severe weather will be around southern Minnesota into central Wisconsin and points south. In our region, it's looking like this will be more of a steady rain for the most part. As such, potential for flooding will probably be somewhat limited, but still non-zero. Without much for heavy rainfall rates, flash flooding isn't looking too concerning, but there could be some localized and probably minor areal flooding. At this point, much of the snow pack in the Arrowhead has melted with the last rainfall episode, and more will gradually melt over the next couple days before this system. If there's any place that will have the highest risk for any flooding concerns with the Monday-Tuesday system, the North Shore is it with what little is left of the snow melting and contributing to rainfall runoff.

Despite fairly good model agreement on track and timing, if there are any shifts further north, there's a non-zero chance that some marginal severe weather potential could nudge into northwest Wisconsin. But as of now, this should largely be a rain event with perhaps some embedded non-severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Rest of Today:

Plenty of clear skies for most of the area this afternoon as high pressure sits over the region, with the exception being some cloud cover development in north-central Minnesota starting this afternoon/evening in association with shortwave energy aloft on the periphery of a closed low churning over southern Saskatchewan. Temperatures top out in the 50s for most, but some low 60s may be found in the I-35 corridor into inland NW WI. westerly to northwesterly wind gusts are still gusting to 15-20 mph at times, but will weaken later this afternoon/evening and become light tonight. Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected the remainder of this afternoon through early evening for north-central Minnesota due to relative humidity values falling to 20-30 percent.

Tonight - This Weekend:

Cloud cover will be on the increase tonight into Saturday as weak shortwave energy aloft continues. A weak cool front in conjunction with more weak shortwave energy will bring light rain potential for Saturday evening into early Sunday morning (20-40% chance) to NE MN and NW WI. There will likely be some returns on radar aloft during the day on Saturday, but it will be difficult for this precipitation to reach the ground before evaporating due to drier air in the lowest 4000-6000 feet of the atmosphere. The Brainerd Lakes would be the area with the best potential for light rain to reach the ground Saturday afternoon. Instability is low to nil with this precipitation, so only a few rumbles of thunder are possible Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Precipitation amounts should be on the lighter side, generally 0.1-0.25" or less, with highest amounts from the Brainerd Lakes into the MN Arrowhead.

Expect mild temperatures for most locations away from Lake Superior this weekend, with highs in the 50s to low 60s Saturday and upper 50s to upper 60s Sunday, warmest in northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures near Lake Superior should be cooler in the upper 40s to low/mid-50s. East winds on Sunday should also bring in a lake breeze.

We will need to watch far northern/north-central MN for possible near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon as afternoon relative humidity values dip into the 25-30% range, particularly for areas that did not see much for rainfall with this recent round of rain/storms.

Late Sunday Night - Tuesday:

Lee cyclogenesis is expected with a developing Colorado Low late Sunday that will then eject northeast and strengthen, tracking northeast through the Minnesota/Wisconsin late Monday through Monday night before exiting into Ontario by Tuesday PM. This system will bring a surge of moisture with origins in the western Gulf and modified moisture from Baja California. Latest NAEFS PWAT percentiles reach the 90th percentile (~0.75-1" of PWATs) for Monday through Monday night for much of the Northland. Broad support for parcel ascent with good synoptic forcing should aid in development of widespread rain with some thunderstorm potential with this system as it moves through the region starting Sunday night, peaking in coverage on Monday PM into Monday night, and ending daytime Tuesday as the low pressure system exits. There is still some uncertainty in the ensemble model members' low pressure tracks Monday into Monday night, with the EPS members clustered more northwest into a southern MN/western IA to NE MN/NW WI track while the GEFS members are clustered as a whole about 50-100 miles farther east/southeast. Our current forecast currently splits the difference between the two global ensemble systems. At the moment, the warm sector of this low pressure is favored to remain southeast of the Northland, but if the system takes a more northwesterly track then some low-end strong to severe thunderstorm potential could make a nudge north into NW WI for Monday afternoon and evening. There is also a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook for all of the Northland on Monday into Monday night given the broad, widespread rainfall signal. Low pressure track an mesoscale features will influence where the heaviest rainfall and possibly minor flooding potential sets up, and these features will come into clearer focus as this system approaches.

Mid - Late Next Week:

We transition into a general northwest flow pattern aloft mid to late next week across the region with periodic, low confidence timing and placement of shortwave energy and associated lighter precipitation keeps chances in the forecast lower (20% or less). This timeframe will also be on the slightly cooler side relative to earlier in the week, with daily highs in the upper 40s to 50s and lows around or just below freezing. Depending on the timing of any precipitation chances mid to late week, a few snow flurries could mix in with rain at times.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR ceilings and light winds are expected today. Later this evening, rain is expected to develop from southwest to northeast along a corridor from BRD to DLH/HIB. Ceilings and visibility are likely to fall to MVFR, though there may be some periods where conditions just barely remain VFR with ceilings and visibility even with clouds and light rain.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Light northeast winds are expected until Monday when a large low pressure system passes through the region. No marine hazards are expected until then. As winds turn northwesterly going into Tuesday, we may have a ~30% chance for some gales along the North Shore. Otherwise, expect gusts in the 20-30 kt range with this Monday-Tuesday system, which will likely be hazardous for small craft. Expect rain and a few thunderstorms in this period as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

It's looking like a fairly dry day out there with generally light winds. Min RH could approach 25% around the Canadian Border this afternoon, but that all depends on cloud cover, which will be increasing through the day. As such, confidence is not high enough to issue a Special Weather Statement for near- critical fire weather because it's possible that RH may not fall to 25%, or if it does, it may be for just a couple hours. In general, min RH is expected to range from around 25-30% up north to 30-35% elsewhere.

The situation on Sunday is looking similar, but even more limited for places that may see RH below 30% as we get broad onshore flow from Lake Superior as well as some lingering rain Sunday morning.

Widespread rain is expected Monday and ends Tuesday. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimized as a result. Some thunder is possible at times with the rain.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.