textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Local dense fog tonight into Saturday morning. - Very warm and mainly dry weather pattern through Monday.

- A more robust system to moves in late Tuesday into Wednesday bringing a mix of rain and moderate to maybe heavy wet snowfall. A second system may bring snowfall to northwest Wisconsin again late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Latest models and model trends have really backed off on the fog signal overnight. Temps were really warm and we had RH's in the low 30s in places. Therefore canceled the Dense Fog Advisory. Still could see isolated patchy dense fog, but I don't see it being widespread enough to warrant an advisory.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The Northland is currently seeing a stint of early spring as high pressure and warm air advection push temperatures well above seasonal averages. Highs this afternoon are sitting in the low to upper-40s under sunny skies. We are watching the daily high temperature records today (current records of 47 F at Duluth and 49 F at Brainerd) for if any are broken.

However, this warmth moving over the snowpack will create areas of fog tonight. Dense fog is expected to form tonight after sunset first in the Arrowhead, Brainerd Lakes and north-central Wisconsin. Towards Midnight, the forecast thinking pulls that dense fog further into the Twin Ports, and US Hwy 53 and I 35 corridor areas. Dense Fog Advisories were issued for these concerns of dense fog lasting into late Saturday morning. Because temperatures will drop into the low 20s, freezing fog is likely, which can leave a thin, transparent coat of ice on untreated sidewalks and roads. Give yourself extra time for any travel Saturday morning.

The quiet and warm pattern holds through the rest of the weekend and into the first half of Monday. Highs will stay in the 40s for most, though the immediate International Border will likely see more sky cover and possibly some light flurries Sunday night. The main forecast attention then shifts to a significant pattern change mid next week.

A strong Colorado Low is forecast to eject out of the Rockies and move toward the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system is tapping into a deep plume of moisture, and the primary concern for us will be the track of the storm. Current data suggests a path that could bring a variety of precipitation types to the Northland. We will likely start as a rain or a wintry mix late Tuesday afternoon (at the soonest), but more likely Tuesday early evening, before transitioning to snow Tuesday night. Because of the warm air involved, any snow that falls will likely be the wet, heavy variety that is difficult to shovel - even light to moderate amounts can be a nuisance for anyone traveling. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the snowfall totals due to potential shifts in the storm track, this system has the potential to cause travel disruptions across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin through Thursday morning. At this time there is a 75% chance of at least 1-3 inches along and south of the Iron Range Tuesday night into Thursday early morning. There is a 50% chance of 3-6 inches for that same area. The exception, due to a longer residual time of a rain/snow mix, would be areas of inland northwest Wisconsin south of WI Rte 70 where closer to 1-3 inches is around a 50% chance of occurrence. The easterly onshore flow into the North Shore high terrain ridge areas and northern Bayfield County could see even more localized snowfall enhancement for those areas.

The second system is progged to move through closer to a next Friday PM into Saturday time period, but currently favored even further southward which would favor most snowfall, if any, to be over northwest Wisconsin.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

00Z TAF package really backed off on fog potential overnight due to way warmer temperatures than expected today and RH's into the low 30s. If we did see dense fog, it'd be up near KINL where this mornings fog hung around the longest giving the smallest dewpoint depressions. So trending towards VFR despite a lot of guidance flogging the area overnight though the general trend is for much less coverage of fog. HRRR has almost completely eradicated it while the 12Z HREF was very aggressive in its formation - I'm expecting the 00Z HREF to be way lower. With clear skies temperatures could drop quickly though they have further to fall to reach saturation for widespread dense fog. Light winds through the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 153 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light winds and minimal wave action are forecast for the next two days. There is a 50-60 percent chance of gale force easterly winds Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM as a strong storm moves to the south of the Big Lake. Pending this forecast track continuing, a Gale Watch is likely to be needed over the next few days for mid next week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.