textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A quick-moving weather system arrives this afternoon and tonight with rain, snow, and wintry mix all possible, mainly along and south of the Iron Range and across northwest Wisconsin.

- Breezy southwest winds today will shift to the northwest by Tuesday, ushering in slightly cooler but still seasonably mild air for the remainder of the week.

- The extended forecast remains devoid of significant precipitation chances, but temperatures will be above normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A clipper system currently over southern Manitoba will slide east into northwest Ontario today, which will dictate our weather for the next 24 hours. A mid level baroclinic zone together with a bit of lift will create a band of precipitation which develops and moves across areas south of the Iron Range from west to east, mainly late this afternoon and evening. Because we are sitting in the warm sector of this system with high temperatures climbing into the upper 30s today, much of this initial precipitation will fall as rain or a rain-snow mix. Later in the afternoon and early evening, a cold front will bring colder temperatures into the area and cause the precipitation to transition over the more snow, with a period of wintry mix in there as well to cause some evening commute issues. While snowfall accumulations will be lightgenerally under an inchand ice accretion minimal, it does not take much to create slick spots on untreated surfaces. By late tonight, the system will exit to the east, though there should be lingering flurries overnight. Tuesday will feature breezy northwest winds and cooler temperatures, with highs in the 20s to around 30. There should also be a period of steep low level lapse rates that should help generate scattered snow showers during the day on Tuesday. Some of our CAM models are picking up on this, but it is inconsistent and not really showing on the larger scale models, so have kept pops low. The signal is not strong enough for snow squalls, but there should be some snow showers.

Wednesday will also be cool with highs in the 20s to around 30. The cool down for Tuesday and Wednesday is relative, as readings remain above average for early February. The rest of the work week looks remarkably quiet. High pressure will settle in, keeping the storm track away from our region. We expect a good deal of sunshine Wednesday, but then clouds and warmer temperatures return for the remainder of the work week. Conditions should be relatively quiet through next weekend as well, and the models are focusing on a strong system which moves across the southern states, leaving the Northland with generally drier conditions.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

MVFR stratus at HIB/INL is expected to persist through the afternoon with ceilings perhaps rising slightly. There's a bit of a timing challenge at DLH when these low clouds will make it that far south, but based on observations, it looks like that timing should be later this afternoon despite some models keeping conditions VFR until the early evening. A band of mainly light precipitation is expected to pass through BRD/DLH/HYR late this afternoon and evening from west to east. This will likely start as rain at BRD and change over to snow around and after sunset as it progresses east. Therefore, the lowest MVFR visibilities are expected at HYR. Snow consistency should be heavy and wet, but amounts are expected to be light (under an inch). Both MVFR visibilities and ceilings are expected as this precipitation moves through. Winds shift northwesterly with a cold front behind this and will become blustery through the night. Some lingering flurries are possible into tonight, but visibility should improve to VFR. Lower MVFR ceilings may persist the rest of the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Southwest winds will increase today ahead of the approaching cold front, with gusts reaching 20 to 25 knots, particularly along the North Shore east of Grand Marais. Waves will remain suppressed due to the extensive ice cover which can be seen on the lake, but where there is open waters, waves may build up to 1 foot. Winds continue to veer into the southwest and west this afternoon and evening before veering still further into the northwest overnight tonight. Speeds should also increase tonight into Tuesday, with gusts from 20 to 25 knots possible through the day on Tuesday for much of the nearshore waters. Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Winds slowly diminish again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.