textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Summer like temperatures this weekend with highs in the 70s and 80s.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon due to gusty winds of 25-35 mph, dry air, and very warm temperatures. - Closer to seasonal temperatures next week with light rain chances returning late Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Quite the transition for today with summer like temperatures making a return. An expansive upper level ridge sets up to our east as a surface low pressure deepens over the Canadian Prairies. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient over the region leading to breezy southwest winds and broad warm air advection surging across the Northland. Wind gusts will be around 35 mph and our high temperatures will be nearing record breaking values in the 80s. Some of the CAMs are painting some weak returns in model reflecitivty this afternoon across the International Border. However, we are keeping PoPs below 10% as soundings show and immense dry layer in the low levels that rain would evaporate upon entering. This pattern will persist through the evening hours with winds weakening a bit but our record warm low temperatures will likely be broken as current guidance points towards overnight lows in the 60s.

Sunday:

A cold front will move slowly from northwest to southeast across our region Sunday into Sunday night. The pacing of the front will be incredibly slow and near stationary at times. Due to this slow progression high temperatures will remain very warm across most of the region. Areas behind the front, namely far northern MN will see cooler temperatures in the 60s and low 70s. As the boundary sags south we will see rain chances slowly increase. Sounding profiles still show a large amount of dry air that will need to be worked over before rain can reach the surface.

Monday:

The better chances for light rain arrives on Monday as a secondary upper level trough crosses the Upper Midwest. Lack of a deep moisture source is keeping PWATs around 1.25" and minimal instability will also keep thunderstorm chances at bay. Overall rain totals will be on the low side around 0.05-0.15" With the passage of the cold front we will see more seasonable temperatures return to the region with highs back in the 50 and 60s.

Tuesday into Midweek:

High pressure builds into the region for Tuesday and starts to depart on Wednesday. Quiet weather conditions during this period with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s. Heading into Thursday and beyond there is a high degree of uncertainty among the 00Z suite of guidance. Cluster analysis shows a deep trough that digs into the desert southwest early in the week. But its progression into the midwest remains uncertain with a GEFS dominate clusters suggesting an active stretch of weather as the troughing slings through the Upper Midwest. But the EPS family highlights a strong ridge over the Northland that would shunt the activity to our south. Will have to monitor to see if a better consensus emerges.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet remained in place over the Northland this morning. Low-level wind shear will persist this morning. Diurnal heating will mix into the lower portions of the jet raising wind speeds and gusts while also allowing the core of the jet to push farther aloft. Gusty winds will persist into this evening. LLWS will become a concern again tonight as the strong south-southwesterly jet gradually shifts eastward through Sunday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Gusty east winds early this morning are still leading to wave heights of 3 to 5 feet across portions of the North Shore with a Small Craft Advisory in place until 10 AM. Winds will begin to turn to out of the south with increasing speeds through the day. More Small Craft Advisories will be needed across the near shore waters. Winds and waves taper off Sunday morning briefly, but strong northeast winds return Sunday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 651 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Summer like temperatures today with highs in the 70s and 80s and min RHs falling into the 30s. Portions of the St. Croix River Valley may see min RH between 25-30% this afternoon. Wind are expected to be very breezy today with gusts around 25-35 mph out of the south. Conditions approach thresholds for Red Flag Warnings in the I-35 corridor and portions of NW WI and will need to be monitored this morning in case RHs drop faster than forecast. The gusty winds will create near-critical fire weather conditions for most of NE MN. Winds will weaken on Sunday and a slow moving cold front will advance southeastward out of the northwest. Increased cloud cover near the front will keep RHs a little higher, but NW WI will largely stay sunny with min RHs likely falling into the upper 30s. Scattered light rain chances return late Sunday through Monday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Daily record and forecast high temperatures and warm low temperatures are shown below for today and Sunday, October 10th and 11th, where the forecast temperature is within three degrees of approaching the record temperature.

High Temperatures:

10/10: Record Forecast KDLH: 82/1938 82 KINL: 80/1955 78 KBRD: 85/1928 84 KHIB: 81/1938 81 KASX: 86/1938 86

10/11: Record Forecast KASX: 86/2015 84

Warm Minimum Temperatures:

10/11: Record Forecast KDLH: 58/1938 61 KBRD: 58/1997 60 KHIB: 55/1938 60 KASX: 58/2015 64

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT Sunday for LSZ121-145>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140.