textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

-Widespread rainfall ends west to east this evening.

-A 40-80 percent probability for scattered rains showers and embedded thunderstorms associated with a weak front on Friday, with the highest probabilities in north-central Minnesota/Brainerd Lakes region where a quarter to half inch of rainfall is expected, elsewhere lesser amounts.

-Temperatures gradually warming each day, but generally near to normal normal with highs in the 60s to 70s and low temperatures in the 40s to near 50 most nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

An almost fall-like weather pattern persists through the next 6-8 days with temps near to below normal and occasional chances for light precipitation amounts, but strong to severe storms are unlikely.

Today into Thursday an unusually strong surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest towards the Lower Great Lakes, deepening to a ~985mb surface low by the time it is over southern Ontario on Thursday morning, which is approaching (but probably not exceeding) sea level pressure records per WPC climatology records/research. At the synoptic scale, this surface low is rotating around a near- stationary upper low over far northern Manitoba with a broad upper level ridge over the Pacific northwest coast resulting in continued northwest flow over the Northland. As the steady rain and occasional embedded thunderstorms end from west to east this evening, partially clearing skies may lead to a few spots with fog overnight tonight. Wrap-around cooler air advects in on Thursday which will lead to spotty light rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, but coverage will be sparse and amounts will be light, less than a few hundredths of an inch where it does rain. With some peeks of sun highs will warm up into mid to upper 60s, which is a few degrees below normal for mid June.

On Friday a weak mid-level shortwave trough aloft will approach from the west with a weak warm to occulued-like front at the surface. With decent low level moisture associated with this airmass, a period of scattered rain showers and weak embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday for much of the Northland, with the best broad-scale lift in north-central into east-central Minnesota. Instability will be weak (less than 400 j/kg MUCAPE) but lapse rates should be steep enough to support some embedded thunderstorms, and depending on the timing if discrete storms form they could pose a brief marginal hail/wind threat. Showers and storms will weaken as they track east towards the Twin Ports/MN Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin on Friday late afternoon/evening. Around 40-50 percent probability for amounts over a quarter inch for north-central MN, perhaps even over a half inch (15-25 percent prob) where thunderstorms develop. Otherwise increasing clouds west to east Friday with highs just a few degrees warmer than Thursday, around 70 for most spots, but clouds clearing out west to east towards sunset.

For Saturday, an area of high pressure over the Dakotas will build east into the Upper Midwest resulting in dry air moving in. To the north, the near-stationary upper low over northern Manitoba finally breaks its grip as a broad longwave upper level ridge builds over the Rockies and east, with the upper low moving south towards northwest Ontario and Lake Superior on Saturday into Sunday. Depending on how south this low digs, there may be a period of scattered rain showers for parts of the MN Arrowhead on Saturday into Saturday night, then broad subsidence as the low tracks east and the upper level ridge helps to reinforce the area of high pressure over the Dakotas into northern Minnesota. Warmer for the weekend with highs in the low 70s, with surface winds turning from northwest on Saturday to northeast on Sunday, causing cooler temps by Lake Superior on Sunday.

The area of high pressure builds east over the rest of the Great Lakes on Monday, with a pattern change aloft as an upper level trough stretching across the High Plains tracks east early next week, with an associated weak surface low in central to southern Saskatachewan and a cold front stretching from the surface low south through much of the northern and central Great Plains. As this cold front approaches from the west late Monday into Tuesday there will be a brief period of southerly flow at low levels resulting in the continued warming trend for highs - low to mid 70s Mon and Tues - with widespread showers and storms Tuesday as the front moves through from west to east. Thermodynamics will be fairly stable given the Pacific origin of the airmass and a very limited window to advect any richer low level moisture to advect in from the south ahead of the front, so thunderstorms are expected to be weak.

Beyond the 7-day forecast, odds are for the near to slightly below normal temps and slightly above normal precipitation to persist per CPC outlooks - a welcome pattern given the current drought situation over parts of the Northland.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Rain continues across the area today, with MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities into this evening before starting to improve tonight as the rain exits to the east, though HYR looks to stay socked into the lower ceilings through tonight. Also expect LIFR ceilings at DLH through early evening. A few embedded rumbles of thunder will be possible near HYR this afternoon, but the potential is only 20% so it was not included in the TAF. No strong or severe storms are expected. East to southeast winds this afternoon turn more northeasterly this evening, then become light and variable tonight, and northwesterly on Thursday with some wind gusts to 15-20 kt by mid to late morning. Expect some patchy areas of fog tonight following the rain, with IFR to LIFR ceilings possible with the fog at DLH and HIB.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today an unusually strong low pressure system moving from southern Minnesota today over Lake Michigan this evening then lifting northeast towards southern Ontario on Thursday morning is resulting in increasing northeast winds over western Lake Superior. The strongest winds at the head of the lake will occur this afternoon, with peak gusts around 30 knots but gale force gusts unlikely (probability less than 5 percent). These winds will cause waves to build to 3-5 feet at the head of the lake through late this afternoon, then winds turn north to northwest and weaken dramatically overnight, less than 5 knots. A small craft advisory is in effect through this evening.

On Thursday, northwest to west winds in the wake of the low pressure system will increase to 10-15 knots, possibly approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions with gusts having a 30-50% chance to reach 22 knots at their peak.

Weak west winds around 5-10 knots at most Friday and Saturday. The next chance for increasing northeast winds arrive on Sunday, with winds of 10-12 knots. Next chance for thunderstorms on next Tuesday, otherwise periodic chances for light rain showers through the forecast.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Temperatures near to below normal and periodic precipitation chances through the next 6-10 days. The driest day in most locations will be Saturday when relative humidity values fall to around 30-40 percent, but winds will be weak through the forecast period. Today's welcome rainfall will come with just a few embedded thunderstorms, with total precipitation amounts a quarter to half inch in north- central/east Central MN, lesser along/north of the Iron Range and MN Arrowhead, but approaching three quarters of an inch in northwest Wisconsin. A brief window for showers and embedded thunderstorms on Friday as a cold front moves through, with perhaps a quarter to half inch where the low tracks through in parts of north-central Minnesota (including the Brainerd Lakes and Chippewa National Forest), but lower amounts less than a tenth of an inch elsewhere.

After Friday, the next chance for widespread precipitation will be Tuesday. Temperatures will be near to below normal with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s, coolest today and Thursday then gradually warmer each day into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143- 146. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ147-150.