textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain and snow showers possible late this morning through early evening. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Colder than average temperatures are expected through at least mid week. Coldest lows will be in the 20s through the work week.

- Additional scattered rain or snow showers are possible Wednesday afternoon, with minimal accumulations. Otherwise, only occasional and slight precipitation chances for the remainder of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A few rogue showers continued overnight across the Northland, including one that passed over the office with a quick burst of snow. As of 3AM, radar returns are finally dissipating, with only stratus across the much of northeast MN and portions of the northwest WI. Temperatures are on track to fall into the mid 20s to lower 30s this morning, with breezy northwest winds. This will bring wind chill values down into the teens and 20s for all of the Northland around sunrise.

Broad upper level troughing persists over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes today, with deep layer northwesterly flow. Cold 850mb temps, as low as -10C, arrive today. Expect to see scattered rain/snow showers again this afternoon, within the CAA regime with steep low level lapse rates given the cold temps aloft. Minimal accumulations, if any, are expected. With the showers and added cloud cover, high temperatures will be chilly in the 40-50F range, 15 to 20 degrees below normal for early May. Northwest winds will remain breezy, generally gusting around 20 to 25 mph.

Persistent northwesterly flow continues through the end of the work week, keeping temperatures chilly. Weak shortwaves within the trough will keep skies at least partly cloudy for the next several days. Wednesday presents a similar setup to Monday and today, and added in low precipitation chances for afternoon rain/snow showers. Any accumulations will be minimal, if at all. Beyond that, only occasional and slight precipitation chances exist through the end of the week.

For the weekend, an upper level trough over the West Coast will push eastward toward the Rockies, but it will become suppressed to the south as the trough centered over Hudson Bay persists. Flow does become slightly more westerly over the Northland, leading to moderating temperatures. Cannot rule out a few showers on Saturday, but weekend temperatures do warm back closer to seasonal norms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Low stratus is spreading northwest to southeast this morning, with heights between 2800-3kft. It is possible a few flurries are falling under the stratus, but do not expect impacts from this activity. Some improvement is possible through the morning, as cigs become more bkn to sct, but expect heights to hang around 3-4kft.

Scattered light rain/snow showers are expected to develop for late morning through early evening. Will maintain PROB30 groups for most terminals when shower potential will be at its peak. Cigs could dip back below 3kft with showers. Northwest wind gusts up to around 20-25 kt expected again through early evening with daytime heating and mixing. Winds diminish this evening, with clearing skies.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Strong west to northwest winds continue this morning, with occasional gusts up to 25kts. Waves will generally range from 1 to 4 feet, especially near the Outer Apostles. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 10AM Tuesday for western Lake Superior. Winds and waves will gradually subside through the day today, as high pressure builds toward the area tonight.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 344 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Breezy northwest to west winds persist today, gusting to 25 mph at times. Expect skies to remain at least partly cloudy today with another round of scattered afternoon rain/snow showers. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range across northwest Wisconsin westward toward the I-35 corridor at the head of Lake Superior, due to warmer afternoon temperatures. While the winds are strong, the cooler temperatures and cloud cover will help preclude any critical fire weather conditions. Similar conditions will continue into the rest of the work week, with near critical fire weather conditions possible each day.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>148-150.