textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Wrap around snow showers and gusty winds are expected in the Iron Range and Arrowhead today.

- Above normal temperatures will lead to daily highs above freezing, leading to thawing and refreezing across the region.

- Dry conditions after today will continue until this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The wintry system that brought recent precipitation to the Northland is currently exiting to the east, but we are not quite done with the snow just yet. Cold air advection on the backside of the departing low will lead to steepening lapse rates and enough atmospheric instability to support horizontal convective rolls. These features will manifest as scattered bands of snow and flurries across the Iron Range and points northward throughout the day. While there is some disagreement in the soundings regarding the depth of moisture and forcing within the dendritic growth zone which would indicate freezing drizzle rather than snow, experience with these post-frontal setups suggests the atmosphere will likely squeeze out some light snow. However, because these snow showers will be battling dry air at the surface, additional accumulations are expected to be no more than a trace in most locations. Additionally, gusty northwest winds are expected from the tight pressure gradient on the back side of the system, and will decrease overnight tonight as the system continues off to the east.

As we move into the middle of the week, a strong area of high pressure will settle over the region. This high has already forced a weak shortwave previously forecast for Thursday to track much further south, effectively removing any chances for precipitation in the Northland Thursday afternoon and evening. We will find ourselves in the western warm sector of this high pressure system for the remainder of the work week. This shift in the pattern will usher in a period of quiet weather with temperatures trending well above seasonal normals. Daytime highs will likely climb above freezing across much of the area, leading to a daily freeze-thaw cycle that could make untreated surfaces like sidewalks and secondary roads slippery during the overnight hours.

Looking ahead to the weekend, the next opportunity for precipitation arrives Saturday into Sunday. A weak shortwave is projected to move through the region, but it currently lacks significant moisture, suggesting only light accumulations at best. There remains considerable model uncertainty regarding the exact track and timing of this system this far out. Beyond the weekend, the pattern may become more active as a broader troughing signature develops over the western United States, but for now, the Northland can expect a relatively dry and mild stretch of weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

MVFR ceilings linger on the back side of a departing low pressure system. Gusty winds out of the northwest with values up to 25 kts will last into the late afternoon for all terminals. With cold air advection leading to lift in the Iron Range and the Borderlands could lead to some convective snow showers, particularly for INL and HIB. These snow showers may lead to MVFR/IFR visibilities for a brief period with the showers, and are possible on and off throughout the late morning and afternoon. Confidence isn't high enough to include in a TEMPO, so have PROB30s set for now.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 258 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect for most of the Western Lake Superior nearshore waters. Northwest winds will gust between 20 and 30 knots today before gradually subsiding late tonight and early Wednesday. Significant wave heights will generally remain 2 feet or less near the shore due to the offshore wind direction, though areas further out toward the Apostle Islands may see slightly higher chop. Conditions will improve by Wednesday afternoon as high pressure builds in.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Wednesday for LSZ140>142- 150. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ145- 146-148.