textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms arrive this evening across the west. More widespread rainfall arrives late tomorrow and lingers through Tuesday.

- Marginal risk of severe storms late Monday into Tuesday morning. There remains potential for redevelopment of strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon as well.

- Gale-force wind gusts are possible over western Lake Superior early to mid next week, especially Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Current Conditions:

Surface high pressure is moving off to the east with southerly flow returning across the region. Aloft we still have a ridge in place. Embedded in the flow aloft there are several impulses rounding the ridge axis over the Red River Valley and spilling over into the Northland. Presently this is manifesting as some light echoes on the radar, however, not seeing any signs via webcams or sensors that this activity is making it to the ground. High res guidance is widely scattered with its depiction of simulated radar reflectivity through the afternoon and beyond. Which is to be expected in the weakly forced regime we find ourselves in. Overall, largely expect most the region to stay dry with some isolated light rain showers at times.

Tonight/Labor Day.

Overnight, the ridge axis shifts further east towards the Great Lakes as a shortwave advances out of the Northern Plains. Moisture profiles begin to saturate leading to a slight increase in PoPs for the overnight and early morning hours across northern MN. A few thunderstorms will be possible as well, but the environment is lacking deep layer shear which will keep storms on the tame side. Through the remainder of the holiday the Northland will find itself in the warm sector of an approaching system in the Northern Rockies. The continued warm air advection and isentropic forcing may lead to off and on rain chances through the day with mostly cloudy skies. Temperatures will be in the 70s with a few low 80s possible. Additionally, the southerly winds will see our dew points climb into the upper 60s by the afternoon.

Late Labor Day into Tuesday:

Large scale ascent is expected to increase late Labor Day and through Tuesday morning. An upper level trough over the Canadian Prairies pushes the ridge completely out of the Northland opening the door for southwesterly flow to stream back into the region. One of the unique aspects of this incoming set up is the high PWATs that the system will have access to. The IVT plots would suggest contributions from both the the Gulf and Hurricane Marie. Climatology puts the incoming PWATs near the max of climatology. Despite this wealth of moisture, most of the guidance keeps QPF fairly moderated. EFI is mainly honing in on areas north of the International Border as being the hotpots for heavy rainfall, likely coinciding with the warm frontal boundary. While we may not be the recipients of the highest rain totals we should still see our fair share with current guidance suggesting around an 1" for most of MN with lower amounts across the Arrowhead and NW WI.

Severe chances start to increase late Monday as well with an upper level jet nudging in from the southwest. Instability may be limited with high PWATs and lack of mid level lapse rates. With these meager ingredients in play the SPC has out western counties outlined in a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 5). Primary hazard would likely be hail the size of quarters with damaging winds being a secondary threat. Storm activity could be persistent into Tuesday as a low level jet strengthens across the Midwest.

Tuesday will see ongoing showers and storms through the morning. The upper level low over the Canadian Prairies will strengthen with a noticeable dry slot sweeping in behind the cold front set to move through the region. Depending on how quickly the front advances east the region we could have some lingering severe storm threat into NW WI in the afternoon.

Wed - Fri:

On Wednesday the upper level low spins into the Hudson Bay with persistent cyclonic flow aloft over the region. Low level moisture still looks favorable with mid and upper level moisture questionable at the moment. The pattern looks pretty similar to the ones we get with isolated showers and more widespread drizzle. Overall, expecting a cloudy day with much cooler temperatures. Highs may not climb out of the 70s in northern MN with NW WI in the mid and low 70s. Thursday looks to be the quietest weather day in the upcoming week with surface high pressure gliding across the Midwest. Rain chances look to return Friday as another front cross through the Northland.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Largely VFR conditions across the Northland with pockets of IFR eroding and MVFR developing. Short term guidance has a poor handle on the current conditions leading to a lower than average forecast confidence. Our expectations are for upper level clouds to increase through the overnight hours with a few areas of showers entering from the west. Some storms will be possible farther north towards INL. Showers will move across northern MN through tomorrow morning with some lingering showers possible through the day. Ceiling heights will be descending through the overnight hours with areas of MVFR favored across INL/HIB/DLH. There is also potential for these clouds to be much lower and closer to IFR in the early morning hours.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Easterly winds across Lake Superior around 5 to 10 kts. Winds will gradually increase late Monday and slowly turn to out of the south. By Monday night widespread wind gusts of 30 kts are expected out of the southwest. Gales will be possible from Grand Portage to Grand Marais. The Gale threat diminishes Tuesday afternoon but will likely still need a Small Craft. Widespread Gales across all the Near Shore waters still looks likely for Wednesday. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Monday through Tuesday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Low fire weather concerns through most of the forecast. Active weather pattern with high dew points back across the region through midweek. Rain totals range from around an 1" across MN with less amounts expected across the Arrowhead and into NW WI. The heaviest rainfall is expected Monday night into Tuesday. Additionally, there will be the risk of strong to severe storms late Monday into Tuesday and again Tuesday afternoon.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-141>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ140. Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for LSZ140.