textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain departs to the northeast this morning. Gusty northwest winds this morning will gradually be decreasing through the day.

- Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Arrowhead as several rivers are at or nearing minor flood stages.

- Slight chance (20%) of rain Wednesday.

- Quiet and drier conditions Thursday through the weekend. Fire weather concerns may become elevated this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Surface low pressure that has brought the region a nice soaking of rain yesterday is now moving off to the northeast towards eastern Ontario. Light rain will still linger over the Arrowhead for a little bit this morning but is expected to exit shortly after sunrise. Taking a look at radar estimates paired with surface observations show that Aitkin up through central and southern St. Louis county into the Arrowhead were the winners for most rainfall with this past system with totals between 1-2 inches. This should mark some improvement in our moderate drought conditions that encompass Aitkin, Carlton, and parts of southwest St. Louis. Elsewhere over in the Arrowhead we are still monitoring river rises from this rain fall and snowmelt. A Flood Advisory remains in effect as several locations are still experiencing minor flooding.

Quiet weather conditions will beset the region for the rest of the day. We will still see some breezy northwest winds continue through the day. However, these speeds will start to diminish as the pressure gradient over the region starts to relax over the course of the day. Highs will be in the upper 40s and low 50s with some intermittent cloud cover. A few of the high res models want to spawn some light showers in the afternoon but we are keeping the forecast dry for the time being. Upper levels show NVA over the region with Q vectors in the lower levels also supporting subsidence inhibiting shower development.

Midweek-End of the Work Week:

Wednesday an upper level trough drops southeast out of the Canadian Prairies bringing a slight uptick in upper level moisture. Weak forcing with this feature could instigate some light rain with the better chances being in the afternoon as we generate a slight boost in lift from diurnal heating. But even then we are keeping PoPs on the lower end near 20% as column saturation may be difficult to achieve.

The rest of the work week looks to remain uneventful. The upper level trough deepens into an upper level low over the Great Lakes which will help keep us in northwest flow allowing for slightly cooler temperatures to prevail. Highs will remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows dropping to below freezing. Surface high pressure will hold over the region suppressing precipitation chances. Not overly concerned with fire weather conditions at the moment given the recent rains and lack of winds from high pressure over the region. We will have to see how well we dry out, but the aforementioned low pressure has potential to retrograde which would keep some clouds in the forecast.

The Weekend:

The quiet conditions extend into the weekend. Upper level ridging finally nudges the upper level low out of the Great Lakes region which may lead to clearer skies and drier conditions. Fire weather concerns may become elevated depending on how forecast trends.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Low pressure system is departing to the northeast this morning and will continue to move into Ontario through the day. Radar shows light rain echoes are slowly diminishing. We still have widespread MVFR ceilings but farther west skies are clearing and we can expect to return to VFR conditions later this morning. Gusty northwest winds are still in place to start the forecast period but will gradually weaken through the day with gusts ceasing after sunset.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A Gale Warning is in effect from Silver Bay to Grand Portage until 1 PM for northwest wind gusts up to 35 kt. Winds will gradually diminish this afternoon with wind gusts forecast to be less than 20 kt for the remainder of the work week.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Rain exits to the northeast this morning. Rain totals from this system rain from 1-2 inches from the Brainerd Lakes region northeast into the Arrowhead. Northwest WI and our northwest counties received 0.50-1 inches of rain. Minimal fire weather concerns over the next several days. Drier conditions will start to become more prevalent once again in the latter half of the week, especially for the weekend.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 143>148-150. Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>142.