textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected today. Rainfall totals generally less than a quarter of an inch, but locally higher amounts possible.

- Colder weather moves in Sunday into Monday.

- An active weather pattern will bring several rain chances next week and possibly a little snow Tuesday morning.

UPDATE

Issued at 258 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers are passing through tonight, and they will continue up the North Shore and Northwest Wisconsin through this morning. A cold front and upper-level trough aloft will trigger a line of showers and possibly some embedded non-severe thunderstorms through today. Potential instability is not much...maybe a few hundred J/kg, and any storms should be elevated. Strong storms are not expected. Rainfall amounts will likely be less than a quarter of an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible with any thunderstorms.

On Sunday, dry weather is still in the forecast with RH values falling into the 25-35% range. Winds are not expected to be exceptionally strong with gusts to around 15 mph for most places, except to around 20 mph in the Arrowhead. Fire weather conditions may be slightly elevated.

All other aspects of the forecast remain relatively unchanged with this update. Please see the previous discussion for more information.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Fog lingers in areas near Lake Superior this afternoon. Dense This fog is expected to clear as a warm front makes its way northeast. Temperatures for the rest of the day will push into the upper 60s and 70s inland, though the shoreline will stay slightly cooler under the fog and cloud cover. A warm front will move through today, shifting winds to the south to southwest and increasing gusts to up to 30 mph tonight. Rain showers will also follow the warm front in the late afternoon and overnight hours. Most will see rain accumulations of less then 0.1".

Saturday, the associated low pressure system tracking east will also bring a cold front west to east across our area. This boundary will provide another round of light rain showers and perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder. Strong southerly flow continues ahead of the front will allow highs to climb into the 60s and lower 70s once again, marking our last warm day for the foreseeable future. Rain chances will quickly taper off from west to east Saturday night.

A much cooler and more seasonable air mass settles in on Sunday behind the departing cold front. Highs will only reach the 40s and 50s under mostly sunny skies as surface high pressure builds in over the area. RHs dip back down into the 25-35% range Sunday, but with lower winds, no fire weather concerns are anticipated. The cooler air mass will allow Sunday night temperatures to drop below freezing for most inland locations.

The extended forecast for Monday through Thursday features a return to an active weather pattern. An upper level low is forecast to move east out of the central Rockies early next week, bringing widespread precipitation chances to the region from Monday into Wednesday. With the cooler air mass firmly in place, some snow could mix in on the northern fringes of the system, though this is currently expected to be minor conversational snow with small accumulations, if any. High temperatures will largely remain in the 40s and 50s through Thursday with overnight lows near or below freezing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A line of showers currently extends from northeastern Minnesota southwest into the Brainerd Lakes area with MVFR conditions prevailing under this activity. A few pockets of IFR ceilings are present as well, but this is expected to be short lived. Lightning activity has dropped to almost nothing, but an isolated strike or two cannot be ruled out as activity moves to the east. VSBYs will drop to MVFR for a period as the heaviest area of showers moves through before returning to VFR. Ceilings are expected to rise to VFR following the showers with VFR prevailing thereafter. Gusty southwesterly winds will turn northwesterly as a cold front passes through this afternoon and evening and then decrease to under 10 knots for the overnight hours.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Southwesterly winds gusting to 20 to 25 knots will continue this afternoon before turning northwesterly and diminishing this evening into tonight as a cold front moves through. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon, but are expected to end by early evening as winds diminish. A line of showers will be ahead of the cold front and a few isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out in this activity. Westerly to southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected for Sunday with a few gusts to 20 knots possible along parts of the North Shore. Winds then swing around out of the northeast for Monday at 10 to 20 knots, highest in the western arm of the lake.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Showers will be seen ahead of a cold front this afternoon and evening with activity diminishing tonight. Rainfall will be around a tenth of an inch or less with isolated higher amounts in spots. Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will become northwesterly behind the cold front and then diminish after sunset. Generally dry conditions are expected for Sunday outside of a few lingering showers in far southern areas. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 30 to 35% range with a few pockets in the 25 to 30% range in the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Winds tomorrow will be northwesterly at 5 to 15 knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots in the Arrowhead. A cooler and wetter pattern is then expected for much of the coming week with multiple chances for rainfall and temperatures closer to normal.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121- 144>148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.