textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry this afternoon and tonight with slightly above normal temperatures.

- A more active pattern sets up for the new week with multiple chances for rain and perhaps a little snow.

- Near normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday before warming back above normal for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Low pressure over Hudson Bay trailed a cold front into the eastern UP of Michigan and northeastern to southwestern Wisconsin early this afternoon. Some showers were lingering along and behind the front across northern Wisconsin, but most of this activity had cleared the Northland with dry conditions expected for most for the balance of the afternoon and evening. High pressure was building in from the Northern Plains with drier air. A pressure gradient remained over the Minnesota Arrowhead between the Hudson Bay low and the high moving in from the west leading to some breezier winds from northern into northeastern Minnesota. Heading into tonight, a stationary boundary will set up across northern Wisconsin into central Minnesota as a trough starts to emerge from the Rockies. This may lead to some light shower activity across our far southern zones tonight into tomorrow morning as moisture advects into the Upper Midwest along this boundary and with isentropic lift. Otherwise, most of the Northland will see a dry and fairly normal fall day with highs running near normal in the 40s.

High pressure will shift to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday as low pressure lifts northward across the Plains as a mid-level trough moves into the central CONUS. As the low moves into Minnesota early Tuesday, it will lift a warm front northward and spread showers across the Northland. With lows Monday night falling below freezing along and north of the Iron Range, some light snow or pockets of all snow will be possible as precipitation moves in. Temperatures will quickly warm after sunrise and change any snow over to rain with little to no accumulation expected. Showers will taper off from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon before another chance for showers arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday morning in association with a weak cold front. This front will then stall out across the region on Wednesday with warm southerly flow to the south of it. This will bring highs in the 60s across northwest Wisconsin and from around Lake Mille Lacs to the Twin Ports area with 50s to the north and east. Another chance for showers will be seen along and ahead of this front for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as this system moves out of the region and high pressure builds in. While rainfall amounts for Wednesday don't look too impressive, there has been an upward trend in totals for the Monday night into Tuesday round with 0.5-0.75" possible from the Brainerd Lakes area into southern Pine and Burnett counties with amounts tailing off to the north and east.

Low chances for precipitation will then linger for late week and into the weekend, although guidance is less optimistic on this occurring than yesterday. Confidence in the warmer temperatures sticking around is higher, however, with highs in the 50s and 60s expected for late week and into the weekend with no hints of a 1991-style Halloween.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Any showers later this afternoon and into tonight are expected to remain south of the terminals. Northwesterly winds will be breezy at INL this afternoon before becoming light overnight for all as winds become more northerly to northeasterly Monday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Southwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots this afternoon will weaken and become northerly tonight and then northeasterly for Monday at 5 to 15 knots. Some slightly higher gusts will be possible near the Twin Ports Monday with terrain effects. The northeasterly winds will increase Monday night into Tuesday and become more easterly as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots will be possible along parts of the North Shore during the day Tuesday and may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft. As the low moves to the north Tuesday night winds will become more southerly and decrease to 5 to 15 knots. Southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots are then expected for Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Mainly dry conditions will prevail this afternoon with chances for showers returning in far southern areas late this afternoon and evening. Clouds will stick around through the afternoon, especially south, and keep RH values around 30% or higher. Some parts of northwest Wisconsin may fall into the 25 to 30% range, but with lingering cloud cover and showers this morning, thinking values will trend a little higher than previously forecast. Winds will be northwesterly around 6 to 12 mph this afternoon with gusts to 15 to 20 mph across northeastern Minnesota. The pattern turns more active heading into the new week with showers spreading in late Monday and lingering into Tuesday with more showers possible for Wednesday. Rainfall amounts have trended upward with the latest forecast package with 0.5-0.75" possible from the Brainerd Lakes area into southern Pine and Burnett counties with amounts tailing off to the north and east. Temperatures will remain cool for Monday and Tuesday before warming back above normal for the rest of the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.