textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong west-northwest winds are expected today, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph forecast, strongest in the Minnesota Arrowhead.

- Additional precipitation chances arrive late this week into the weekend. There is a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening.

- A pattern change to noticeably cooler temperatures is favored this weekend into early next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Today and Thursday:

Cold front #1 is moving through the region this morning, with breezy west winds increasing and dewpoints decreasing in its wake. Most locations across northeast MN now have dewpoints in the 50s, and already had a few gusts of 20-25mph. The front has now pushed into northwest WI, with Superior now with a dewpoint of 55F. Ahead of the front, where dewpoints are in the 60s, patchy fog might be possible, but with elevated boundary layer winds do not expect widespread or significant vis reductions.

A secondary front will quickly move through the region this morning. There might be a few widely scattered showers or sprinkles across north central and northeast MN, but expect most of the area to remain dry. Northwest winds will increase, with gusts of 25-35 mph through this afternoon. Strongest winds will be across the Arrowhead and North Shore.

Winds diminish this evening, with high pressure building into the area. After daytime temps warm into the mid 60s to mid 70s, lows tonight will fall into the low 40s to low 50s. There is a low chance (10-20%) that a few locations in the Arrowhead fall below 40F by early Thursday morning. The airmass moderates Thursday, and temperatures warm back into the 70s region wide, with sunny skies and breezy southwest winds.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Friday - This Weekend:

We see a couple rounds of precipitation chances return for Friday into this weekend. The first round would be with a surface low ejecting out of the northern Plains daytime Friday and through northern Minnesota Friday PM into early Saturday morning. Strong warm/moist advection with this system in combination with strong synoptic forcing for ascent driven by a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough and jet could set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe storms Friday afternoon and evening when the best instability/strong shear combination would overlap. Still some question as to how far north the warm-sector of this low pressure system would make it into the Northland depending on the forecast ensemble low tracks. As of now, the portion of the Northland with the best potential for strong to severe storms would be along/south of US-2 in northeast Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin. Storm intensities should wane towards Friday night, with showers/remnant non-severe storms ending west to east into early Saturday morning.

Additional showers and perhaps a few general storms are possible (10-30% chance) on Sunday with weak troughing moving though largely zonal flow aloft, but instability will be limited at best, so likely to be mainly just showers.

We also see the shift to a cooler pattern starting this weekend with high temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s on Saturday and 60s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday nights could even touch the upper 30s to mid 40s, though the typical cold spots could see mid-30s even! For now, the potential for areas of frost remains less than 20%.

Early Next Week:

The cool pattern persists into early next week with highs in the 60s and possibly even some upper 50s on Monday, with nightly lows in the upper 30s to 40s. Global ensemble members and deterministic models show fairly good agreement on a more robust, Colorado low-type system developing in the lee of the Rockies as a deeper mid/upper-level trough moves across the High Plains into Upper Midwest Sunday night through Monday night. This would bring a good shot at more widespread rain and appreciable rainfall amounts should the forecast system track hold over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A cold front is moving through the Northland tonight, with breezy west winds behind the front. Winds at 8-10kts overnight will increase, with gusts of 20-25kts by 14Z. Already seen gusts at INL and DLH. Other than sct to bkn cigs between 4-5kft at INL, skies will be mostly clear.

A secondary front will move through the area Wednesday morning. CAMs show a few showers along that boundary, but chances are low at any given terminal. Skies will be VFR, with westerly gusts up to 30kts through the day. Winds will diminish Wednesday evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Southwest wind gusts of 15-20 kt will continue overnight as a cold front moves through the region. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Winds expected to increase through the morning, with localized gale force gusts possible over the Outer Apostles to Saxon Harbor and Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Gusts of 30-35 kt are most likely, and a Gale Warning is now in effect beginning at 12Z. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for west- southwesterly wind gusts up to 25-30 kt elsewhere. Winds are expected to weaken out of the west Wednesday night as high pressure moves in, though portions of the North Shore could see gusts to 15 to locally 25 kt on Thursday afternoon, mainly near Grand Portage. Expect additional potential for conditions hazardous to small craft on a more widespread basis in western Lake Superior on Friday and Saturday.

Thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon into Friday night, some of which could be strong to severe.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Strong west-northwest winds expected today, with gusts of 25-40 mph expected. The strongest winds are expected in the higher terrain of the Arrowhead. Lingering low- level moisture will keep min RH at or above 40%, and some sprinkles or even very light rain showers are possible this morning in northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Winds ease Wednesday evening as high pressure builds into the area. Lighter southwest winds are in store for Thursday, though afternoon gusts of 10-15 mph are expected. Thursday will be rain-free and sunny with min RH dipping into the mid 30s to mid 40s (%), lowest in northwest Wisconsin.

Friday and Saturday will be windier again, though humidity will be on the increase as shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will also be possible Friday afternoon and evening, with the best potential across north central and northeast Minnesota.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121- 140-147-148-150. Gale Warning from 7 AM this morning to 5 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-140-147-148-150. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ141>146.