textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloud cover increases today with scattered light rain showers arriving this afternoon and evening. These light showers continue through tonight into early Sunday morning.

- Rainfall amounts today through tonight will be light at 0.1" or less for most, although localized amounts up to 0.25" are possible.

- A large area of low pressure is expected to impact the Upper Midwest early this upcoming week. Widespread significant rainfall amounts of at least 1" are forecast over a period from Monday through Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Happy Halloween! Stratus has been lifting north into the CWA early this morning as isentropic upglide occurs along a warm front. As this weak warm front continues to lift north, expect scattered rain showers to arrive from south to north this afternoon and evening. Expect radar echoes to appear before precip is observed at the surface at the leading edge of the front, as hi-res model soundings continue to indicate a layer of dry air in the low levels that will eventually become saturated. Overall precipitation amounts today into early Sunday morning are forecast to be light at 0.1" or less. Locally higher amounts up to 0.25" will be possible underneath heavier rain showers, but these higher amounts will be very hit or miss. While not a washout by any means, any trick or treaters will want to be prepared for some light rain showers this evening!

Following the warm frontal passage tonight into Sunday morning, cloud cover is expected to briefly decrease in the afternoon and evening. This break in the clouds will be short-lived though as a more dynamically forced low pressure arrives on Monday and keeps rain chances in the forecast into Wednesday. One of the most notable aspects of this system will be the anomalous amount of PWAT arriving into the CWA as strong Gulf moisture advection occurs in conjunction with an atmospheric river coming inland from the Pacific Ocean around Baja California. Similar to the previous update, the forecast amount of PWAT is over the 90th percentile and near the daily max of climatology. Please see the previous discussion for more information on this early week system and the pattern later in the week, as there have been minimal overall changes since the previous forecast update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Surface high pressure stretched from the Canadian Prairies to the Great Lakes early this afternoon. Mainly clear skies were observed from the Iron Range northward with cloud cover moving in from the south. Dry conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight with highs in the 40s and lower 50s and lows tonight falling into the upper 20s to middle 30s.

The ridge axis will begin to shift to the east tonight with warmer 850mb temps advecting northward. A weak warm front will lift from the Central Plains late tonight into southern South Dakota and southern Minnesota by Saturday evening. Warm air advection and isentropic lift with the front will lead to chances for showers through the day and into the evening. Rainfall amounts will be light and dry air near the surface will likely limit what reaches the ground. Highs will be in the 50s with temperatures falling into the 40s and lower 50s after sunset. Sunday looks mainly dry outside of a few spotty showers as temperatures continue to warm. Highs will be in the middle 50s to middle 60s with lows in the 40s.

The pattern turns more active heading into the new week with a large system impacting the central CONUS in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. A deep trough will dig into the Rockies Sunday night into Monday with surface low pressure developing across eastern Colorado. This low moves northeast through the day Monday and into the Upper Midwest Monday night. Widespread rainfall will spread across the Northland through the day Monday and into Monday night. Heading into Tuesday, an upper low will drop out of the Canadian Prairies and interact with the system over the Upper Midwest. Questions remain as to what will happen during the interaction, but what is known is that rainfall will continue for Tuesday into Tuesday night as the system slowly moves through the region. PWATs with this system will be in excess of an inch and approach an inch and a quarter, which would be over the 90th percentile for the date and near the daily max. Widespread rainfall amounts of three-quarters of inch to 1.25 inches is expected with an axis of higher amounts in excess of 2 inches. This heaviest axis of rainfall has been wobbling across the region from model run to run, so placement is uncertain at this time. However, the signal for it remains strong. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s and 60s.

Chances for showers will linger for Wednesday as this system departs with drier conditions for the latter half of the week as high pressure builds in. Cooler air will filter in behind the system with highs retreating into the 40s and 50s for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions early this morning are expected to deteriorate this afternoon into the evening as a warm front and associated scattered VFR visibility rain showers move through. Cigs are forecast to lower to MVFR in the afternoon and IFR/LIFR tonight into Sunday morning. Based on current trends, there is a 30-50% chance that visibility reduces tonight to MVFR/IFR as winds ease and patchy fog develops around the area.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Minimal marine concerns are expected through the weekend. Winds will increase early next week as a large area of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest. Breezy northeasterly winds gusting to around 25 knots are forecast on Monday afternoon and again on Tuesday. These breezy winds and the resulting building waves may necessitate Small Craft Advisories, especially around the Twin Ports on Monday and Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Expect cloud cover to increase today as a weak warm front lifts north into the area, with southeast winds today gradually shifting to the south tonight into Sunday morning. Scattered rain showers arrive this afternoon and evening, continuing into early Sunday morning. Total rainfall today through tonight will be hit or miss and light at 0.1" or less, although locally higher amounts up to 0.25" are possible under any heavier showers.

A wet pattern persists into early this upcoming week as a strong area of low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest and slowly moves east. Strong moisture advection will result in 1" or greater of rainfall being very likely (70-90% chance) from Monday through Wednesday. Lowest confidence in 1" of rain or more is along the International Border, especially around Rainy Lake and areas farther west. Despite this area having lower confidence in heavy rain, there is still a 50-60% chance for at least 1" of rainfall from this early week system.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.