textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of scattered showers, rain and snow, continue on and off through Thursday.

- Gradual warming trend into the weekend with a chance for light scattered rain returning on Sunday.

- Slightly cooler than normal temperatures continue into mid May.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Today and Tomorrow:

An upper level low over central Ontario and north-central Lake Superior is contributing to areas of clouds and rain/snow showers across portions of our area today along with some breezy northwest winds. We will continue to be under the influence of this upper level low into tomorrow with steep low level lapse rates and good afternoon mixing. This should allow areas of rain and snow showers to further blossom from late Thursday morning through the afternoon. As high pressure and dry air nudges into the Upper Mississippi Valley we should stay fairly precipitation free Friday and Saturday.

This Weekend into Early Next Week:

An upper level shortwave should be able to propagate down the Canadian Plains and into our neck of the woods Sunday, bringing our next best chance for precipitation along a cold front. Global models are in decent agreement showing that the Sunday system should be the first in a train of clipper-like systems brushing over the International Border and into the Great Lakes through mid next week. Ensemble guidance is in fairly decent agreement that these impulses should bring continuous scattered rain chances in the Sunday - Wednesday timeframe, but signals for heavy rain are low. It looks like each impulse could maybe drop several hundredths to a couple tenths of an inch in each 24 hour period. Amongst each of these impulses there could be some embedded dry air, leading to periods of light rain mixed with afternoons with relative humidities dropping into the 20-35% range. We may actually have to keep an eye on possible fire weather concerns if fuels start to dry up again.

Beyond Mid Next Week:

Late next week and into mid May, we're expecting temperatures to stay on the cooler side as the potential emerges for a deep upper level low originating in arctic air to sweep into our neck of the woods. This could bring 850mb temperatures below zero which will likely result in overnight sub-freezing temperatures and highs in the 30s to 50s. There are no signals for heavy precipitation in this time period, just passing chances of light rain (and maybe even some snowflakes).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Primarily VFR conditions, though can't rule out brief MVFR conditions with any isolated rain/snow showers for HIB/DLH and areas north and east of those terminals early this evening. The Minnesota Arrowhead and parts of the South Shore of Lake Superior could see isolated snow showers continue into tonight and early Thursday morning. Otherwise, expect another round of scattered diurnal rain and snow showers to redevelop for much of northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin late Thursday morning through early evening. Hard to say how frequently terminals will be directly impacted, but confidence is good that showers will be in the vicinity. PROB30 groups highlight when shower coverage will be highest in the afternoon. Can't rule out brief MVFR to near IFR conditions if any showers move directly over a terminal. Breezy northwest winds early this evening at BRD, otherwise winds become light tonight. Winds remain northwesterly into Thursday, with gusts up to around 15 kt developing again in the late morning through early evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Northwest winds continue through tomorrow, with some stronger gusts of 15-20 knots possible at times. Some rain and snow showers are possible. Expect mostly light and variable winds Friday, and then west to southwest winds could pick up Saturday ahead an approaching cold front.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Areas of rain and snow showers and thunderstorms are expected off and on through Thursday. Any rain or snow accumulations are expected to be fairly light and afternoon relative humidity could actually fall into the 30-40% range. Expect fairly dry conditions Friday and into the weekend with clearing skies and mostly light winds. Afternoon RH could easily fall into the 20-30% range on Friday and Saturday afternoon, with locally dry spots potentially falling below 20%. Some scattered chances of rain are expected to return Sunday into early next week but significant moisture surges or heavy rain are not expected at this time.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.