textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be above normal this week with mainly dry conditions expected.

- Freeze/thaw cycle may lead to areas of fog during the overnight hours.

- Larger system possible Friday into the weekend may bring mixed precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

High pressure was centered over the lower Great Lakes early this morning and extended across the Midwest and into the central CONUS. Warm air advection around the periphery of the high was leading to an area of stratus across northeastern Minnesota into northern Wisconsin. There were some radar returns associated with this stratus deck, but with very dry air near the surface and high cloud bases, nothing was reaching the ground. This area of stratus will depart to the east this morning leaving mainly sunny skies across the Northland for today as highs warm into the 30s and lower 40s. Temperatures will continue to warm over the next few days with widespread 40s and 50s expected by Wednesday with overnight lows falling below freezing. This freeze/thaw cycle will lead to melting snowpack during the day. With overall increasing moisture from persistent southerly flow in addition to the melting snow, fog is expected to develop during the overnight hours.

An area of low pressure will pass to our south across the Mid- Mississippi Valley on Thursday and lead to easterly winds off Lake Superior. This will keep highs in the 30s and lower 40s near the lake with middle to upper 40s well inland.

Thursday will see a deep trough push into the Intermountain West with low pressure forming ahead of it in eastern Colorado. This low will then lift northeastward for Friday into Saturday and spread rainfall across the Northland starting Friday. Models are in fairly decent agreement with this system, but there are still timing and track differences. Another area of low pressure will develop in the Red River Valley of the North and drop a cold front into the region late Friday. This will lead to a change from rain to snow heading into Friday night. Depending on the timing of the colder air and the track of the system, there may be some freezing precipitation to contend with as well. Current indications are for mainly rain with this system with a bit of snow on the backside Friday night as precipitation comes to an end. There will be plenty of moisture for this system to work with after southerly flow through much of the week ahead of it, so rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times and, combined with resultant snowmelt, may lead to minor rises on area waterways heading into the weekend.

There isn't a strong signal for a push of cold air behind this system with highs reaching back into the 40s and 50s for the weekend. The pattern then looks to stay active heading into next week with another large system possible heading into mid-next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Warm air advection has brought an area of VFR mid clouds and LLWS to the area. The LLWS is expected to affect INL/HIB/DLH overnight. BRD/HYR are expected have stronger surface winds, so no LLWS except perhaps very briefly. Otherwise, winds strengthen overnight and Monday morning, gradually from the south to southwest. Toward the end of the TAF period, melting of the snow cover with the warm surface temperatures will contribute to fog or stratus development this evening. Probabilities for lower flying conditions remain on the low side, but have included MVFR ceilings for KHYR, as this site seems most likely to be affected. Probabilities increase for the remaining sites after 06z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 255 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Southwesterly winds will increase across western Lake Superior today to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 to 35 knots. This will lead to conditions hazardous to small craft today before winds diminish late this afternoon. Gales to 40 knots will be possible along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage as well. Winds will remain southwesterly for Tuesday into Wednesday, but will not be as strong, only around 10 to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM CST this morning for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ141>146-148-150.