textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry RHs and gusty winds will create critical to near-critical fire weather conditions Monday. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of northeast Minnesota (except Lake and Cook counties).

- Warmer temperatures return this week with dry conditions through Wednesday

- Active weather pattern begins Thursday with storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Tonight:

Surface high pressure is pushing across southern Manitoba this afternoon, moving toward the Northland. North to northwest winds remain gusty this afternoon, with a scattering of fair weather CU across the skies. The high will quickly cross the area tonight, maintaining mostly clear skies and diminishing winds. With dewpoints in the teens and single digits, expect lows overnight to fall into the teens to mid 20s.

Monday:

A storm system wil move across northern Manitoba and Ontario Monday, dragging a cold front into the Northland Monday evening. Ahead of this system, south to southwest winds will increase, with gusts of 25-30 mph by mid morning in the west and spreading across most of the Northland through the day. This will lead to increased fire weather concerns as model soundings show a significant dry air in the lower levels. Expect good mixing conditions, with dewpoints in the low to mid teens, coinciding with the increasing winds. Min RH values will fall below 25% across much of the Northland, with the longest duration of both low RHs and strong winds west of the Hwy 53 corridor. The one limiting factor could be cloud cover associated with the front moving into the area. Those could limit heating and mixing. See the Fire Weather Discussion for details on headlines.

Tuesday/Wednesday:

Quiet conditions for both Tuesday and Wednesday as surface high pressure moves across the region. High temps start in the upper 50s to 60s on Tuesday and climb into the upper 60s and 70s for Wednesday. Areas near the Lake remain in the 50s.

Thursday/Friday:

An upper level trough will cross the Rockies mid week, sending a surface low and frontal system across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. Ahead of this system, strong southerly winds will pump Gulf moisture northward through the Mississippi River Valley and into the Northland. Guidance is fairly agreeable on timing of a warm front lifting through the area Wednesday night, opening the door to a quality warm sector and increasing instabilities by Thursday afternoon. Combined with strong upper and low level jets ahead of a cold front arriving Friday evening, severe storms could be possible. Will need to assess details over the next couple days (like a cap and cloud cover limiting afternoon heating).

Guidance is in better agreement for the end of the week, with both model suites leaning toward a stacked system rotating over Ontario through at least Saturday, maybe longer. This could keep periods of rain in the forecast. For now the NBM maintains 20-30% PoPs through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Winds become light tonight as high pressure passes overhead. Southerly to southwesterly winds are forecast Monday with gusts of 20 to 25 knots likely. A cold front will move into the region Monday evening after 21.00Z which will veer winds westerly or northwesterly.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Northwest winds continue to diminish this afternoon and tonight as surface high pressure moves through the region. Southwesterly winds increase Monday afternoon and may lead to some building waves on the North Shore that warrant a Small Craft Advisory again.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Low min RHs Monday will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across the Northland. A low pressure system will track well to our north, but bring increased south to southwest winds. Wind gusts of 25-30 mph are possible with Min RH values dropping below 25% during the afternoon and early evening. Cloud cover remains the wrench in the forecast as some models are suggesting decent coverage through the day that would prevent rapid drying. The most likely areas to clear would be across our west where Min RHs drop below 25% for most of the afternoon. If we do get a fair amount of sunshine we could see these fall to below 20%. Fire weather watch has been issued for most of the north central and northeast Minnesota for Monday.

Conditions across the tip of the Arrowhead do not look quite as dry, with min RH values dropping below 25% for just a couple hours. However, southwest wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph are possible. An SPS has been issued for northern Lake and northern Cook counties for near critical fire weather conditions.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for MNZ010-011-018-019-025-026-033>038. WI...None. MARINE...None.