textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers across northern MN this morning. More widespread rain chances will enter from the west this afternoon and exit Tuesday morning. A few storms will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI.

- Quiet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday

- Rain chances return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

A cold front has sagged south and stalled out over central WI. Radar is showing some weak echoes moving across northern MN with a few surface observations indicating pockets of light rainfall are making it to the surface. This activity is expected to push northeast through the morning hours with a little lull in activity through midday. Heading into the latter half of the day we will see a strong shortwave advance out of the Northern Plains boosting synoptic forcing and bringing another round of more widespread rainfall. Farther south, closer to the surface low moving across southern MN, we will see some increased MUCAPE which will lead to a brief window for some isolated thunderstorms to develop from the Brainerd Lakes region into NW WI. Steep mid level lapse rates from the influx of cool air aloft paired with ample amounts of bulk shear could lead to small hail in some of the more robust cells. Activity will taper off overnight with rain totals ranging from 0.10-0.35"

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Rain exits to the east through Tuesday morning with high pressure setting up residence over the region. Temperatures will be much more seasonable with highs in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will fall back into the 30s. No precipitation expected through this period.

Thursday and Friday:

The 00Z suite of guidance is starting to come into better agreement with the overall pattern for late into the work week. Two lows will be the primary players with the first low ejecting out of the Central Rockies starting Thursday morning. Another low is projected to be dropping south out of Saskatchewan. There is initially a dry sector in between these features that will be over the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest that will need to be overrun in order for rain to transpire. But with the pincer like movement of these features into the Northland rain chances will likely increase. Placement and timing of these lows are still a bit contested among ensemble guidance which will greatly influence on whether or not the southern low can tap into some Gulf moisture as it moves across the Midwest.

Weekend:

The aforementioned lows will merge over the Great Lakes leading to a strong pressure gradient setting up over the Northland. Gusty north winds with ample cold air pouring in from the north will lead to a very chilly Saturday morning with lows in the 20s. Dry air will also dominant most the region leading to mostly sunny skies and highs continuing to be in the 50s and 60s. The dry and windy conditions may prompt fire weather concerns for Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Radar this morning shows some light echoes across northern MN with a few reports of spotty showers. Ceilings are largely IFR with some pockets of LIFR. These lower ceilings will continue to spread south through the forecast period. In the latter half of the day another surge of moisture will cruise across the region leading to more widespread rainfall. A few storms will be possible across BRD/HYR/DLH. Showery activity will taper off tonight but low ceilings are expected to persist.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Strong northeast winds are streaming across the Lake once again with gusts near 30 knots this morning. Winds will further strengthen through the morning hours with gales expected across most the near shore waters. See the latest MWW for the latest details on timing and wave heights. Gales are expected to taper off tonight, but hazardous boating conditions for small vessels will persist through Tuesday afternoon as wave heights will take some additional time to decrease.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

No immediate fire weather concerns through most of the work week. Rain chances for today and Min RHs are not expected to start drying out again until Friday. The next elevated fire weather conditions will likely be Friday and Saturday as winds increase and Min RHs drop into the 30s and possibly 20s for Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 148. Gale Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>147-150.