textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms this afternoon into Tuesday. A few strong storms with hail up to the size of pennies and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible this afternoon through around sunset.

- Additional showers and non-severe storms with a low pressure system Tuesday night into Thursday. Forecast rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1 inch mainly from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin.

- A generally cooler than normal weather pattern persists for the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rest of Today - Tonight:

High temperatures top out around normal for mid-June this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s, and slightly cooler immediately near Lake Superior for the Twin Ports and North Shore. Winds are also fairly breezy out of the west at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph, though become light this evening and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop this afternoon in association with daytime heating and shortwave energy moving in aloft ahead of a surface cold front approaching the region from southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. Most of these storms should be fairly short duration and pulsey in nature due to weak effective bulk shear of 15-25 kt. With that said, steep low-level lapse rates, 300-800 J/kg of MLCAPE, and mid-level lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km set up a parameter space where a few stronger storms could be capable of up to penny size hail and localized downburst winds of 40- 50 mph. The potential for a few stronger storms lingers through early evening, but should diminish around sunset. Scattered showers and a few embedded, general thunderstorms continue overnight as a surface low pressure gradually passes southeast through the Northland.

Tuesday:

The surface low pressure will be in NW WI on Tuesday morning and exit to our southeast Tuesday afternoon/evening, so shower and isolated non-severe storm activity will also end from NW to SE Tuesday, with the best precipitation coverage in NW WI associated with the deformation band on the NW side of the low pressure system before precipitation comes to an end. The rest of Tuesday will shape up to be a mix of clouds and sun along with cooler high temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s away from Lake Superior and slightly cooler immediately near the lake. Northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph are also forecast for daytime Tuesday, but again drop off and become light towards sunset Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.

Tuesday Night - Thursday:

By Tuesday night/early Wednesday, an Alberta Clipper-like system is forecast to skirt along the southern portions of the Northland and bring a high likelihood (70-100%) for rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to areas along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor. There will to be an area of drier air to the northern side of this system, so the gradient in precipitation on the north side of the system should be sharper. Precipitation starts as early as Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as there will be some drier low-level air to initially overcome first. Precipitation then continues throughout Wednesday and ends from west to east Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, though some cold air advection/cyclonic flow showers could also develop on an isolated to widely scattered basis with daytime heating on Thursday.

As of now, the best rainfall potential would be along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, with the best potential for rainfall amounts of 0.5-1" being from the Brainerd Lakes east into NW WI. However, there is still some model spread regarding where the sharp cutoff in precipitation and rainfall amounts would occur in far northern MN. Regarding severe weather potential for Wednesday, the large majority of ensemble member surface low tracks remain south of the Northland, which would also keep the effective warm sector and pool of adequate instability for strong to severe storms south of the Northland. This aligns well with the area of "Marginal" in the SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook also being south of the Northland.

Outside of showers and storms, Wednesday and Thursday will be on the cooler side, with highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s on Wednesday and mid 60s to around 70 degrees on Thursday. Strong onshore flow on Wednesday should push the cooler high temperatures in the upper 50s into the Twin Ports area and into portions of the North Shore. The strong onshore flow will also likely lead to a high rip current risk for Twin Ports beaches, so a Beach Hazard Statement will also likely be needed on Wednesday.

Friday - Next Weekend:

The general mid and upper-level pattern for Friday into this coming weekend is for ridging to develop in the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast, leaving the Upper Midwest in a northwest flow pattern with occasional shortwave energy moving through, though ensemble members are in disagreement in the timing and amplitude of these features. Given the uncertainty, have maintained the periodic 10-30% chances for showers and thunderstorms from the NBM in the forecast for Friday through Sunday. A slight warming in the 850 mb temperatures next weekend should also push high temperatures closer to normal (low to upper 70s).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions until later this evening and tonight. A cumulus field is already developing across much of the area early this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms beginning to form across far northern Minnesota. Scattered showers and storms develop across the remainder of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin over the next 1-3 hours this afternoon and persist into the evening. Most storms will not be strong, but a few could produce up to penny size hail, erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph, and localized downpours. Some brief MVFR conditions are possible with any showers or storms that move directly over a terminal. Around and after sunset, MVFR showers will linger into Tuesday morning with low stratus and MVFR fog developing. HYR has the best potential to see IFR ceilings early Tuesday morning, though there is a 20-30% chance for IFR ceilings at DLH tonight into early Tuesday morning, as well. Gusty westerly winds up to 20-25 kt continue through early this evening, become light out of the west to northwest tonight, and increase out of the northwest to north with gusts to 15-20 kt late in the current TAF period daytime Tuesday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Southwesterly winds at 5 to 15 kt gusting to 20 to 25 kt persist through early evening, with the strongest gusts near Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage where waves up to 2 to 5 ft will be present and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Gusts of 20 to 25 kt are also expected from Port Wing into the Outer Apostle Islands, where a Small Craft Advisory has also been issued. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and linger for tonight, a few of which could produce small hail and erratic wind gusts to 30-40 kt this afternoon through around sunset. A cold front will move through tonight and turn winds northeasterly briefly into Tuesday morning before light and variable winds arrive for Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Winds increase out of the northeast on Wednesday, with gusts up to 20 to 30 kt for the afternoon and evening and waves building to 2-4 ft, with the strongest winds into the Twin Ports. This will likely lead to hazardous conditions for small craft for much of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters. There is also a 20% chance for gale-force winds near the Twin Ports Wednesday afternoon and evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Relative humidity has dipped to the upper 20s to 30s (%) across much of the area early this afternoon along with westerly winds gusting to 15 to locally 25 mph. Scattered daytime cumulus clouds are developing and some scattered showers and storms are also forming in far northern Minnesota nearest to the cold front. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across the remainder of the Northland this afternoon into tonight ahead of the cold front as it works south across the region. Any location seeing a storm could see brief downpours, though widespread heavy rain is not expected due to the more scattered coverage of showers and storms. A few of the storms this afternoon and evening could become strong, with hail to the size of pennies, up to 40-50 mph erratic wind gusts, and occasional lightning. Storm intensity diminishes towards and after sunset.

Scattered showers and a few storms linger in northwest Wisconsin on Tuesday Chances for showers and storms linger Tuesday morning into early afternoon, with drier conditions in northeast Minnesota. Afternoon min RH values dip to 30-35% in most areas, though some pockets of 25-30% can't be ruled out, particularly in the Brainerd Lakes region. Wind gusts will be northwesterly at 5 to 15 mph, with daytime gusts of 15 to locally 20 mph. Better chances for rainfall arrive starting Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning and persist through Wednesday. Rainfall potential is highest along and south of the US Hwy 2 corridor, with a 50-80% chance for greater than 0.5" of rain from the Brainerd Lakes east into northwest Wisconsin.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140- 141-146-147-150.