textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather conditions continue this afternoon and Friday due to dry air, warm temperatures, and breezy winds.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are possible this afternoon through Saturday morning with strong rip currents along the beaches of Duluth and Superior.

- Friday will be very hot with near-record highs, but conditions will remain just below Heat Advisory criteria.

- Northeast gales are possible near the Twin Ports starting Friday evening and lasting into Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

For the rest of the day, expect abundant sunshine across most of the Northland with temperatures ranging from the 70s near Lake Superior to the upper 80s inland. A prominent lake breeze will maintain northeast winds along the western tip of Lake Superior, possibly creating dangerous swimming conditions and a higher risk for rip currents. Deep mixing this afternoon will also drop relative humidity values into the 25 to 35 percent range, creating near-critical fire weather conditions especially north of the Iron Range. Tonight will be mostly clear and mild, with low temperatures falling into the 50s for most locations as winds become light and variable. Dry air should mitigate any fog formation.

Friday will feature near-record heat across the region as southerly flow increases. While temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s, the latest data indicates we will remain just below Heat Advisory conditions. Despite missing the advisory criteria, it will still be a very hot and dry day, prolonging our near-critical fire weather concerns. The SPC has a general risk for thunderstorms Friday - most likely due to heat and instability, but also due to a back door cold front causing a triggering mechanism in the heat. By Friday evening into Saturday morning, this backdoor cold front will sweep across the area, causing a sharp shift to strong northeast winds off of Lake Superior. We may see some gales develop near the Twin Ports during this timeframe, creating hazardous marine conditions. Saturday will be noticeably cooler near the lake, with highs in the 60s and 70s, though inland areas will still reach the 80s.

Sunday will remain dry and mostly sunny as high pressure settles back over the Great Lakes. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s along the immediate Lake Superior shoreline to the lower and middle 80s further inland. Winds will generally be light from the south and southeast, providing a brief break from the stronger gusts seen earlier in the weekend.

The extended forecast for Monday and Tuesday keeps our temperatures well above normal, with highs consistently reaching the 80s across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. We will see a gradual increase in moisture, which will introduce a 20 percent chance of isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms on both days. Southeast winds will remain somewhat breezy, gusting to around 15 to 20 mph each afternoon, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

By Wednesday, the general upper-level pattern begins to shift slightly, maintaining our warm trend with highs in the 70s near the lake and 80s inland. South to southwest winds will pick up slightly, gusting toward 20 mph. Precipitation chances will hover around 20 to 30 percent for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms as weak disturbances ripple through the region. Unfortunately, no widespread soaking rainfall is expected through the middle of next week, meaning dry conditions will largely persist.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Expect a bit of variability in wind direction this afternoon, and there may be some occasional ~15 kt gusts. At DLH, onshore winds from Lake Superior will likely result in some 15-20 kt gusts this afternoon. Any breezy conditions are expected to lessen towards sunset, with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Aside from a few mid-level clouds this afternoon, expect VFR conditions through the period with high pressure in place.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

For the rest of the day, northeast winds around 10 to 15 knots will keep waves in the 1 to 2 foot range for western Lake Superior. By Friday evening into Saturday morning, a sharp frontal passage will cause northeast winds to surge, and we may see some gales develop near the Twin Ports. These strong winds will persist into Saturday, building waves and creating hazardous conditions for small craft across the nearshore waters.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

High pressure and a prominent lake breeze will drop relative humidity values into the 25 to 35 percent range this afternoon. Southerly return flow on Friday will push temperatures higher, with minimum humidity again dropping to 20 to 30 percent across most of the Northland. Winds will generally remain below 15 mph today and Friday, but a cold front on Saturday will shift winds to the northeast with gusts increasing to around 20 to 25 mph though this wind shift should bring increasing moisture and possibly a thunderstorm. While chances for rain increase late in the forecast period, there's still no large systems to speak of.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.