textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of very light rain Sunday night through Monday.

- Strong westerly winds Monday gusting 30 to 40 mph.

- Mainly dry with below normal temperatures through the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Today will see another day of seasonable temperatures in the upper-50s to mid-60s. A jet of 30 to 40 mph winds passes over the region this morning and early afternoon to bring some winds mixing out for gusts to 25 mph. After the jet quickly exits the area, winds remain around 10 mph gusting to 20 mph. As the strongest winds and incoming elevated clouds are offset from the lowest relative humidity today no headlines are in place at this time covering any borderline fire weather concerns today. If winds do overachieve this afternoon when RHs are forecast to reach 23-28% then a limited coverage Special Weather Statement for near critical fire weather conditions may still be needed for northern Minnesota.

Conditions will remain mild tonight as a second, stronger clipper approaches from the northwest. A low-level jet will develop, with winds of 40 to 50 mph just a few thousand feet off the ground. This intense wind profile will help keep the surface mixed, preventing temperatures from dropping significantly. Expect overnight lows to stay in the 40s to lower 50s. High- based rain showers will move across the area tonight and into Monday morning, though total precipitation amounts will be light, generally under a tenth of an inch.

Monday brings a sharp transition as a cold front moves through. Westerly winds will increase quickly around sunrise, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph into the daylight hours. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance that locations from the Iron Range through the Twin Ports and into the Arrowhead could see gusts reaching 45 to 50 mph....those locations may need a Wind Advisory in time if trends continue for these stronger wind gusts Monday. A notable temperature gradient will exist in the greater region, with northern Minnesota highs Monday in the low 40s and inland northwest Wisconsin in the low 60s. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin Monday afternoon.

Behind the front, much colder Canadian air will settle over the region for the remainder of the work week. This will result in a period of unseasonably cool and mainly dry weather. Hard freeze conditions are anticipated starting Monday night, with overnight lows dropping into the 20s for most of the Northland through at least Thursday. Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will struggle to reach 50 F. No significant precipitation is expected in this time period.

A slow recovery in temperatures is forecast for the end of the week and into next weekend. Highs will gradually climb back into the 50s and eventually the lower 60s by Saturday as high pressure drifts across the Central Plains. Skies will be mostly sunny through this period with continued low relative humidity. Despite the dry air, near-critical fire weather conditions are not currently anticipated as winds remain relatively light under the influence of the building high pressure system.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

An area of fog developed this morning over portions of the Iron Range, reducing vis at HIB to LIFR. Already seeing improvement, and expect VFR conditions by 14Z. Elsewhere, clouds continue to exit the area, and VFR skies will prevail through the day. Winds will increase from the northwest this morning, with gusts up to 20kts possible. Winds back to the southwest this afternoon ahead of another weak clipper, with an increasing low level jet. A period of Low Level Wind Shear is likely at area terminals beginning 01-06Z this evening and lasting beyond this TAF period. Rain chances increase after 00Z, with the best coverage along the International border through the end of the forecast period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 220 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior starting late tonight. Southwest winds will increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots tonight. On Monday, winds shift westerly and remain strong with gusts of 25 to 30 knots and waves of 2 to 4 feet. There is a 50 percent chance of localized gale force gusts north of Grand Marais late tonight. Winds and waves will subside Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 226 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Today will see another day of seasonable temperatures in the upper-50s to mid-60s. A jet of 30 to 40 mph winds passes over the region this morning and early afternoon to bring some surface northwest winds mixing out for gusts to 25 mph. After the jet quickly exits the area, winds shift to westerly but remain around 10 mph gusting to 20 mph. As the strongest winds and incoming elevated clouds are offset from the lowest relative humidity today no headlines are in place at this time covering borderline near critical fire weather conditions today. If winds do overachieve this afternoon when RHs are forecast to reach 23-28% then a limited coverage Special Weather Statement for near critical fire weather conditions may still be needed for northern Minnesota.

Expect another round of very light and high-based rain showers tonight into Monday as a cold front moves through the region Monday. Winds tonight will further shift to southwesterly and remain mixed out and gusty to 20 mph. These well-mixed overnight conditions keep recovery RHs Monday night in the 50-70% range. By early Monday morning, expect an uptick in wind speeds of 10 to 20 mph and gusts of 30 to 35 mph and another shift to westerly. Districts in the Iron Range to Twin Ports to Arrowhead have a 40% chance of seeing gusts to 45 mph Monday.

Winds remain west to northwesterly Tuesday onward as a seasonably cold airmass sets up through Friday, with very little precipitation forecast in this time period.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ121-146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>145.