textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered chances for some rain/snow this afternoon 20-30%. Minimal accumulations expected

- Flood Advisory remains in effect for the North Shore and Cook County as several rivers are still running high or near minor flood stages.

- Quiet and drier conditions Thursday through the weekend. Fire weather concerns may become elevated late this and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level trough is dropping southeast out of the Canadian Prairies this morning bringing a slight uptick in upper level moisture. Weak forcing with this feature could instigate some light rain/snow with the better chances being in the afternoon as we generate a slight boost in lift from diurnal heating. But even then we are keeping PoPs on the lower end near 20-35% as column saturation may be difficult to achieve.

Through the end of the work week:

The rest of the work week looks to remain uneventful. The upper level trough deepens into and upper level low over the Great Lakes which will help keep us in northwest flow allowing for slightly cooler temperatures to prevail. Highs will remain in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows dropping to below freezing. Surface high pressure will hold over the region suppressing precipitation chances. Not overly concerned with fire weather conditions at the moment given the recent rains and lack of winds from high pressure over the region. We will have to see how well we dry out, but the aforementioned low pressure has potential to retrograde which would keep some clouds in the forecast. The latest trends are starting to force the upper level low to the east faster which could lead to a decrease in clouds further lowering dewpoints Friday afternoon.

The Weekend and Early Next Week:

Saturday remains quiet with high pressure departing through the day. Mid levels show some warming as flow turns to out of the west which will allow for temperatures to gradually warm into the 50s and 60s. Cloud cover continues to remain questionable as upper level clouds will be in the vicinity of the Northern Plains, too soon tell if they will spill over into the Northland. If we remain sunny then we could see a dry day that may warrant some fire weather concerns.

There is an increase in model variance as we head into Sunday and Monday. The 00Z suite of deterministic guidance is showing some flavor of a weak cold front moving through Sunday that could generate some light showers. This feature is followed by another more prominent cold front, but timing and placement remain highly contested at this juncture. For now, NBM is carrying PoPs of around 20-30% through the periods.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period expect under scattered rain and show showers through this afternoon where MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility are possible. Some showers are possible for all terminals except BRD. Gusty northwest winds should calm through this evening and become calm and variable overnight. Another round of some rain and snow showers could be possible Thursday afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

High pressure prevails through the end of the week with wind speeds across the lake remaining less than 10 kts. A pattern change does not arrive till late Sunday into Monday, but at this time it does not appear to bring any hazardous weather across western Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns in the near term. Northwest flow will keep the region cool with intermittent cloud cover over the next several days. Diurnal heating will lead to some scattered rain/snow showers today. Minimal accumulations are expected with any showers that do manage to materialize and work through some dry air. Wind gusts will be around 20 mph in the afternoon and diminish after sunset.

Drier conditions look to be on tap for Friday and Saturday when RHs could drop below 30%. However, cloud cover remains a question placement of an Upper level low over the Great Lakes region will largely dictate how well we will be able to mix.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ144- 145.