textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Clouds stuck around a little longer this morning which has trended RH up just a smidge, but HRRR still points to sub 25 percent values over northeast Minnesota.

- Monday afternoon looks stormy across the Northland, but nothing severe is anticipated.

- Kept higher rainfall amounts up to 1/4 to 1/2 inch in for Wed into Thu across the southern 1/3 of our forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

For the rest of the day, clouds stuck around a little longer this morning which has trended RH up just a smidge across the Northland. However, the HRRR still points to sub 25 percent values over northeast/north-central Minnesota this afternoon. These critically low humidity values below 25% are combining with gusty northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph, keeping the Red Flag Warning active across portions of the Arrowhead region. High temperatures will be unseasonably cool, only reaching the upper 60s. Tonight, the gusty winds will diminish as a cooler air mass settles over the region, allowing low temperatures to drop comfortably into the 40s.

Sunshine will kick off the start of the new work week, but clouds will quickly increase as a fast-moving disturbance drops down from Canada. Monday afternoon looks stormy, but nothing severe is expected as these showers and non-severe thunderstorms track across the region. Temperatures will continue to slowly moderate ahead of this system, reaching the low to mid 70s for most locations.

The overall weather pattern through the middle and end of next week will be characterized by continuous northwest flow aloft. This setup will bring multiple quick-moving systems passing through our area, providing periodic chances for rain and thunderstorms. Based on the latest guidance, we kept higher rainfall amounts in for Wed into Thu across the southern 1/3 of our forecast area. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal through the middle of the week, with highs generally in the upper 60s to low 70s.

By late Thursday into Friday, broad upper level ridging currently stationed over the western United States may begin to drift eastward. This shift would potentially transition our winds to a more southerly direction, introducing a warm air advection pattern. As a result, we could see a return to more typical, warmer summertime weather and drier conditions heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all terminals over the next 24 hours. Gusty northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots will persist through early evening before dropping off and becoming light out of the west tonight. Clouds will increase on Monday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms expected by the afternoon. Another round of small craft advisories may be needed Monday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet will continue to create hazardous conditions for smaller vessels this afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect until 7 PM CDT this evening. Winds decrease tonight before southwest winds increase Monday with gusts up to 25 knots building waves to 3 to 5 feet east of Grand Marais.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Dry and breezy conditions will lead to critical fire weather concerns for the Minnesota Arrowhead this afternoon. While clouds stuck around longer this morning to bump relative humidity up a smidge, high resolution models still point to sub 25 percent values across St. Louis County. This will be paired with westerly winds gusting 20 to 30 mph. Winds look a bit lighter for Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning in the afternoon. Periodic rain chances will then continue through the middle of the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ011-012- 019-020. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>145.