textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warmer through Saturday morning, then rain moves in Saturday afternoon.

- Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night through around Wednesday. Some places may see 1-2"+ of rainfall in that period. Minor flooding is possible, mainly along the South Shore and possibly the Arrowhead of Minnesota.

- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Monday afternoon/evening. Large hail and gusty winds are the main threats. Northwest Wisconsin will have the best chance for seeing any strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Current Weather: We warmly welcome spring back to the Northland with some temperatures in the 40s this afternoon. High pressure is bringing with it plenty of sunshine, though there are plenty of diurnal cumulus cloud out there. With mostly clear skies tonight, expect temperatures to fall below freezing, but this will likely be the last widespread below- freezing night for several days as we get much warmer air moving into the region.

Several Rounds of rain are expected starting Saturday afternoon and lasting through approximately Wednesday. Details are below.

Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Night: Broad southerly flow underneath the eastern side of a broad ridge will bring a noteworthy stream of moisture into the upper Midwest from the Gulf of America. Robust isentropic upglide is expected Saturday into Saturday night, and initially it should take a while for saturation to take place on Saturday with lingering dry air in place. It will likely be the usual increasing clouds and eventually rain making its way north starting Saturday afternoon. For Saturday afternoon and evening, this should be largely synoptically driven rain, though elevated lapse rates and instability are expected to increase overnight, so thunder will be possible. As far as rainfall amounts go, it is looking like there will be a bit of a moisture gradient with PWATs up to around 1.25" in NW WI and up to 1" in NE MN. Northwest Wisconsin should therefore see the brunt of the rainfall Saturday night with this first round. Ensembles are not necessarily in exact agreement with amounts, with a mean around 0.3 to 0.6" in NW WI into Sunday morning. Clustering is not great though, and with at least some convective processes expected, we can expect locally higher and lower amounts.

As we go into Sunday, it's still looking like we hold on to a conditional threat for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. We will have very warm and moist air streaming up into the Northland ahead of a cold front that is expected to pass through sometime in the evening. We should see some elevated and possibly (depending how far north the warm front can make it) surface-based instability Sunday afternoon/evening. Thermal profiles in NW WI show deep near- surface moisture with somewhat steep lapse rates and dry air aloft. MUCAPE is looking to max out somewhere between 1000 and 1500 J/kg, so severe weather may not be widespread, but we could get a few storms capable of some large hail and/or damaging winds. Outside of storms, it is going to be warm! Many places in east-central MN into NW WI should see upper 60s to low 70s for highs.

As a cold front passes through Sunday evening, we may actually switch into a brief dry period later Sunday night through Monday morning.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning: Another low pressure system will make its way through with warm air advection in its wake. Broad surface-based instability is expected for a good chunk of Wisconsin Monday afternoon with another day of high temperatures in the 70s. There's still uncertainty on how far north the surface- based instability will make it, so this will be another conditional threat for any strong to severe storms in northwest Wisconsin. If there are any, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Really the big trick with Monday might be dealing with a lake breeze as winds shift to northeasterly by the lake but remain southerly down towards Price County. Either way, we will probably see another round of rain, though it may be slightly less intense compared to Saturday night into Sunday.

Tuesday into Wednesday: Another surface low is likely to pass over Wisconsin with a potent upper-level trough aloft. This one was originally looking a bit colder such that some mixed precipitation could have been possible, but now it's looking like we should remain all rain. We may have enough embedded instability for a few thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected. After a cold front passes through sometime around Wednesday morning, the rain should eventually end.

Late week into Next Weekend: We are looking to remain in a relatively wavy upper-level pattern to end the week. After a brief period of cooler temperatures mid-week, we could see another day of southerly flow and temperatures rising into the 70s. Models are generally suggesting a deep trough to the west that would create a Colorado-style low passing through somewhere in the Midwest followed by a blast of much cooler air to bring us into the weekend. It's possible we could see anything from thunderstorms to mixed precipitation depending on the track of the low and associated fronts. Models are too diverse in where any lows might track right now, except to say the Midwest in general. After seeing several days of above freezing temperatures (even at night), we may see lows fall below freezing again perhaps around Friday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Pretty quiet weather with VFR conditions expected through the period. There are some clouds affecting INL and will for the next few hours. There's a ~30% chance there could be temporary MVFR ceilings, but that shouldn't last long. Brief gusts to 15 kt are expected this afternoon, but for the most part speeds should remain below 10 kt. Winds may be slightly south of west for a few hours this afternoon. Gradually, winds will become light and back towards southeasterly Saturday morning as high pressure passes through. Gusts just over 15 kt become possible again late Saturday morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

No major marine concerns are expected in the next 48 hours. Winds are expected to be light and variable overnight, becoming east to southeasterly Saturday into Saturday night. Wind gusts are expected to be below 15 kt. Winds become southerly along the South Shore on Sunday with a few gusts that could approach 20 kt. Expect rain and possibly some thunderstorms to move in Saturday late afternoon into Saturday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

There may be some dry weather Friday with min RH falling below 40% in northwest Wisconsin out ahead of rain moving in, but with wind gusts below 20 mph, fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal. Widespread rain and scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening through early Wednesday in several rounds. This will keep fire weather concerns minimal probably through Wednesday next week. We may have a dry, warm, and possibly breezy day in the works for Thursday with some southerly winds.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A Flood Watch has been issued for Bayfield/Ashland/Iron counties in Wisconsin Saturday evening through early Wednesday morning. Confidence in there being impactful flooding in these areas is about 50%, so this isn't a high confidence watch by any means. There are still several inches of remaining snowpack for some areas, mainly in northern Iron county and the Bayfield Peninsula. Rainfall amounts around 1 to 2 inches with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms could tip the scale for there to be some minor flooding. This is going to be conditional on all ingredients coming together such that locally heavy rains fall over the pre-existing snow. If the first round of rain Saturday night into Sunday ends up being lighter, additional impacts beyond that may be minimal such that the watch may be cancelled early.

Another area of concern has been the North Shore, where 12"+ snow depths and SWEs >7" still persist. The heaviest rains are expected to pass to the south, and temperatures will be moderated by Lake Superior such that rapid snowmelt that would result in flooding is generally not expected except perhaps locally. Therefore, no flood headlines have been issued there for now.

The first round of rain Saturday night into Sunday will likely be slightly more intense than what follows it in the days following, so that will set the stage for flooding potential thereafter. As far as individual rivers/streams, the highest confidence in some potential minor flooding remains with the Tyler Forks near Mellen, which may get to minor flood stage by Monday afternoon if rain is heavy enough and water in remaining snow pack. No headlines have been issued as of now. Other regional rivers/streams look like they should be pretty well behaved based on the current forecast for upcoming rainfall.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Wednesday morning for WIZ002>004. MARINE...None.