textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow Squall potential for this afternoon across the Arrowhead, Twin Ports and NW WI.

- Saturday could see some elevated fire weather concerns as gusty southwest winds mix with low Min RHs in the afternoon. Area of most concern is the Brainerd Lakes region.

- Temperature roller coaster continues with highs climbing into the 40s and 50s at times and crashing back to below freezing in the overnight hours.

- Potential for another active weather pattern next week with multiple systems moving through. Spring time weather means all modes of precipitation will be on the table and some thunderstorms can't be ruled out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Current Conditions/This Morning:

This morning there is a weak low pressure moving across ND which happens to be nuzzled between high pressure to the east and northwest. Surface observations paired with radar echoes showcase some light snowfall over the area that model guidance is struggling to depict. As we move through the morning hours an upper level trough will move into the Northland and help usher in some of this moisture. However, looking at the 00Z sounding out of INL this morning shows quite a bit of dry air that will need to be overcome in order for anything to make it to the ground. For now, we have added some low chances of light snow and flurries this morning.

Afternoon and Tonight:

Cyclonic flow aloft paired with a lobe of PVA passing above will help promote some snow chances this afternoon. With steep low level lapse rates of 8-9C/km up to 2km will lead to some convective elements with these snow showers. High res guidance isn't overly excited about depicting a line of showers developing but does display some HCRs over the Arrowhead and down into NW WI this afternoon. Even so, will need to keep a close eye on the environment as there is potential for some isolated snow squalls to develop. Most locations likely won't see much activity but a few bursts of snow that can quickly reduce visibility as they accelerate through. Gusty northwest winds will also be present through the afternoon helping to drive these snow showers. Activity will rapidly taper off this evening with winds diminishing and skies clearing.

Saturday:

Warm air advection ramps up on Saturday with a warm front arching across the Northland. Isentropic lifting in the mid morning and early afternoon could lead to a band of light snow showers quickly traversing the Northland. Depending on how quickly this moves through the region we may actually have fire weather concerns later in the afternoon. The big question right now is cloud cover which will greatly impact how quickly we can dry out. The HRRR is very aggressive with its Min RHs dropping below 20% across our west, but we have tapered that back to match our current forecast sky cover. Winds will be gusty out of the southwest lending itself to the elevated fire weather concerns. The area of most concern right now would be the Brainerd Lakes Region.

Sunday:

Much quieter Sunday as surface high pressure moves across Ontario. Winds won't be as breezy as Saturday so fire weather concerns are lower. Clouds will be decreasing through the day and highs will soar into the low 60s across our south. It will be a classic cooler by the Lake day with a sharp temperature gradient as you approach Lake Superior.

Next Week:

A few upper level troughs look to move across the Northern Plains which will promote an active weather pattern. Activity could ramp up as soon as Monday afternoon as a baroclinic zone spanning across the Canadian Prairies dips into Northern MN. But the better chances look to arrive Tuesday as a surface low moving out of the Rockies is projected to impact the Upper Midwest. Low clusters still lack consensus at this time with placement ranging from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes. With us being in a Spring time pattern we can't really rule out any weather precipitation types. We may even be able to build in some higher dewpoints and get some thunderstorms depending on the low tracks.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions to start the forecast period with high clouds starting to roll in from the west. Could see a few flurries this morning as cloud cover increases. Gusty northwest winds are expected today with some potential for scattered snow showers. These snow showers could be intense at times and quickly degrade flight conditions, however, any shower that does appear is not expected to linger for very long. The threat period for these showers is outlined in the PROB30 groups. By the early evening hours activity will taper off with winds diminishing and clouds clearing.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 241 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Northwesterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts around 25 kts. See the latest Marine Weather Message for the latest areas impacted by Small Craft Advisories. Winds taper off later this evening. Southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots will be in place for Saturday. The next chance for hazardous conditions will arrive on Monday with strong easterly winds expected.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140-141-150. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ148.