textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple rounds of rain expected this workweek, the first round today into Tuesday and another round Wednesday into Wednesday night. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- There is the potential for some very light snow to mix in tonight into Tuesday morning from north-central MN into far northern Arrowhead. Accumulations are expected to be around 0.1" to none on grassy surfaces.

- Near-normal temperatures through Tuesday before warming back above normal into the 50s and 60s for most locations for the remainder of this week and upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

REST OF TODAY:

Early this afternoon, surface high pressure is centered in southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario to our north and low pressure in the Central Plains with a stationary front extending east into the lower Great Lakes. North of this stationary front, isentropic ascent into far southern portions of the Northland is leading to increasing cloud cover from the south along with some spotty, very light rain showers from east-central Minnesota into inland northwest Wisconsin. Drier air present farther north closer to the surface high pressure will keep much of the Northland dry through the remainder of the afternoon. Expect high temperatures to be more fall-like in the 40s to around 50 degrees this afternoon alongside easterly winds.

THIS EVENING - TUESDAY:

For this evening and tonight, expect the aforementioned low pressure system to continue sliding northeastward towards the Upper Midwest in conjunction with a negatively-tilted mid-level trough. As moisture advects northward with this system, light to moderate rainfall will gradually expand northward across the Northland, reaching near the International Border by around sunrise Tuesday. With surface temperatures dropping to the upper 20s to around freezing in north-central Minnesota, the Iron Range, and inland portions of the Arrowhead tonight into early Tuesday morning, some of this rainfall could see a mix of pockets of very light snow or briefly over to all snow. However, with temperatures quickly warming above freezing around and after sunrise, the timeframe of snowfall for any specific location would be on the order of 1-2 hours. Combining that with low snow-to-liquid ratios of 3 to 1 or less and warm ground temperatures in the 40s, only around 0.1" to no snow accumulation is expected, and would mainly be on grassy surfaces.

Light to moderate rainfall continues on Tuesday, gradually ending from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening as the low pressure system slides through and then exits northeast of the Northland. Forecast rainfall totals for the rest of today through Tuesday evening range from 0.05 to 1", being lowest in far north-central Minnesota, and highest (i.e., 0.50" to locally 1") from the Brainerd Lakes east into the St. Croix River Valley. We also can't rule out a 10-20% for a few stray rain showers/sprinkles in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday night, but additional accumulation amounts will be negligible at best.

Temperatures quickly climb on Tuesday into the mid 40s to around 50 degrees for high temperatures in most of northeast Minnesota and mid to upper 50s in east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconisn.

WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT:

On Wednesday, mid-level shortwave troughing energy moving across the Dakotas in conjunction with another, weaker low-pressure system moving northeast across South Dakota through Minnesota/northwest Wisconsin will bring additional rain to the Northland (60-95% chance), with the highest accumulation potential in the afternoon and evening hours. Some steeper mid- level lapse rates will provide just enough potential for MUCAPE values up to around 200 J/kg Wednesday afternoon and evening, which could lead to a few embedded rumbles of thunder with the rain. Rain then comes to an end late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning. The quicker, more progressive nature of the Wednesday rain should cap rainfall amounts a bit, with forecast accumulations generally on the order of 0.2-0.5" for most of the Northland, lowest in north-central Wisconsin.

Seasonally warm temperatures are in store for Wednesday, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s in northeast Minnesota and mid to upper 60s in east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin.

LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND:

Precipitation chances in the forecast for Thursday and Friday have trended dry as surface high pressure slides through the Upper Midwest under mainly zonal flow aloft. Global ensembles suggest a change to southwesterly flow aloft for this coming weekend, though precipitation chances and the location of embedded shortwave energy to drive those precipitation chances remain more uncertain. For now, we are holding near the NBM mean for precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday with a broad 25-45% chance PoPs. We do have higher confidence in the warmer than normal temperatures persisting through this coming weekend, with highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s and slightly cooler near Lake Superior due to onshore easterly flow. Saturday night and Sunday night low temperatures are also forecast to remain above freezing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Low pressure moving into the area tonight will be bringing widespread precipitation and deteriorating flight conditions. Current VFR cigs are expected to lower to IFR, and even LIFR for some terminals, tonight into early Tuesday morning as the low pressure continues to propagate north. Rain will be the main precipitation type, although a period of light snow is forecast for KINL and KHIB early Tuesday morning as temperatures drop below freezing. Visibility will be improving by Tuesday afternoon, although lower stratus is anticipated to linger through the period. Expect southeast winds to increase on Tuesday as this low pressure moves through.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Minimal changes to the marine forecast with this update. Northeast winds around 5 to 15 knots today increase tonight as low pressure moves into the Upper Midwest, while wind directions will veer from northeast to east-southeast. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the North Shore to Twin Ports to Apostle Islands late tonight into Tuesday as winds gust up to around 25 kt and waves build along portions of the North Shore up to 5 feet. Winds weaken on Tuesday evening into Wednesday and become south to southwesterly as the low pressure system exits northeast of the region.

Expect light to moderate rain tonight into Tuesday with some visibility reduction, but visibilities will remain above 1 NM.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A couple chances for precipitation are expected through mid- week, with the first later today through Tuesday and second round Wednesday into Wednesday night. Most of the precipitation will be in the form of light to moderate rain, though some very light snow (0.1" or less) could mix in briefly in north-central Minnesota to the inland Arrowhead tonight to early Tuesday morning. Also, a few embedded thunderstorms can't be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening, though no severe weather is expected given limited instability. Forecast rainfall totals for the rest of today through Tuesday evening range from 0.05 to 1", being lowest in far north-central Minnesota, and highest (i.e., 0.50" to locally 1") from the Brainerd Lakes east into the St. Croix River Valley. We also can't rule out a 10-20% for a few stray rain showers/sprinkles in northwest Wisconsin Tuesday night, but additional accumulation amounts will be negligible at best. The quicker, more progressive nature of the Wednesday rain should cap rainfall amounts a bit, with forecast accumulations generally on the order of 0.2-0.5" for most of the Northland, lowest in north-central Wisconsin.

Expect increasing cloud cover from south to north the rest of today ahead of an approaching low pressure system, with min RH this afternoon bottoming out between 40-50%. RH recovers to 90-100% tonight with rain moving in. Then, expect breezy east to southeast winds gusting 15 to 25 mph on Tuesday as the low pressure moves through, shifting south to southwesterly and weakening Tuesday night. Min RH Tuesday stays at or above 60%. Another system moving through and rain chances on Wednesday will keep min RH at 55% or higher. In the wake of the Wednesday low pressure system, expect northwest winds on Thursday and light and variable winds on Friday along with no precipitation in the forecast as high pressure moves through. Min RH Thursday and Friday could dip down into the 40-50% range depending on how dry the airmass coming in is. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal this afternoon and then turn seasonably warm in the 50s and 60s through the rest of this week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141- 142. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Tuesday for LSZ146- 147-150.