textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-critical fire weather conditions will continue this afternoon across the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin due to low humidity and breezy southwest winds.

- A strong thunderstorm is possible this evening across north central Minnesota, bringing potential for small hail and gusty winds up to 40 mph.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds are possible Thursday afternoon and evening from the Interstate 35 corridor eastward across northwest Wisconsin.

- Generally speaking, minimal rainfall totals through early next week with 0.10 to 0.50 inch expected with most getting the lower amounts or less.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

For the rest of the day, expect mostly sunny and warm conditions across the Northland. A weak upper-level ridge and surface high pressure will continue to drift east, allowing breezy southwest winds to develop. These winds, combined with relative humidity values falling into the 20 to 30 percent range, will create near-critical fire weather conditions. As we head into this evening and tonight, a weak cold front and an approaching upper-level low will trigger a line of showers and storms. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated tonight, a strong storm with gusty winds and small hail is possible over north central Minnesota.

Thursday will bring our primary window for active weather as the weak cold front continues its sluggish push across our region. As moisture surges northward, dewpoints climbing into the 60s will provide ample fuel for scattered showers and thunderstorms. MUCAPE values rise to 1500 J/kg in the presence of fairly weak shear. PWATs of 1.4" have a low probability of giving substantial rainfall. Not overly hyped about the potential for severe storms though some ingredients are present, so severe is not completely out of the question. During the afternoon and evening hours, a few of these storms could become severe, particularly from the Interstate 35 corridor eastward across northwest Wisconsin where the best ingredients come together. The main hazards with any severe storms will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch, though locally higher amounts are likely beneath the heaviest storms. The further south and east you travel could see higher amounts in Price County where 0.80" may occur.

A secondary cold front will cross the area Thursday night, shifting our winds to the northwest and ushering in slightly cooler and drier air for Friday. However, the frontal boundary is expected to stall just to our south, which will keep lingering chances for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm in the forecast through Saturday, mainly south of the Highway 2 corridor.

By early next week, the weather pattern shifts reverts back to strong upper-level ridging over the Upper Midwest. This will push a much hotter airmass back into the Northland for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will return into the upper 80s to lower 90s across inland areas, accompanied by increasingly humid conditions. Precipitation chances will also return early next week as additional disturbances ride the edge of the heat dome though the flow is not quite favorable to move the moister precipitation making flow back into the Northland with the exception of Tuesday onward when the ridging axis begins to shift east allowing Gulf moisture to move overhead.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the Northland for the rest of the day with breezy southerly winds. A cold front will approach this evening, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to sites like KBRD and KINL, with brief periods of IFR visibility possible in heavier rain. MVFR and eventual IFR ceilings will spread from west to east overnight as the front crosses the terminals. Low-level wind shear is also possible early Thursday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Quiet conditions are expected for Western Lake Superior for the rest of today, with south to southwest winds generally 5 to 10 knots and waves 1 foot or less. The exception is near Grand Portage, where gusts to 20 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet are possible. Showers and thunderstorms will move over the lake late tonight through Friday. Quiet conditions return through Saturday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions will persist for the rest of the day except improving conditions near Koochiching County. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, while minimum relative humidity drops to 20 to 30 percent. A weak cold front will arrive overnight, shifting winds to the west for Thursday. A second cold front arrives Thursday night, turning winds to the northwest. Rain chances will increase this evening and continue through Friday though the chances for a wetting rain have dwindled. Some thunderstorm activity across the south could help bring some moisture through Friday, but most will have to wait until next week before hotter and humid conditions arrive bringing a more widespread threat for thunderstorms and wetting rain.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.