textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Stratus over northwest Wisconsin will clear throughout the morning, and bitterly cold temperatures across northeast Minnesota will quickly increase with sunrise.

- Flurries to light snow are possible overnight tonight, with light accumulations possible, particularly across northern Minnesota.

- A clipper Thursday will bring temperatures above freezing and wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

High pressure currently centered over the region is providing clear skies and very cold conditions early this Tuesday morning. Temperatures have plummeted into the negative double digits for many locations across the Northland, leading to a cold start for commuters. While some lingering lake-effect stratus clouds and flurries are present over parts of northwest Wisconsin due to cold air advection over the relatively warmer waters of Lake Superior, these are expected to dissipate throughout the morning as they are exposed to sunlight. Most of the area will enjoy a quiet and sunny afternoon with light winds, though temperatures will struggle to climb out of the mid-teens.

Changes begin late tonight as a weak upper-level shortwave slides southeastward from Canada. This system lacks significant moisture and is expected to lose what little it has as it moves through the region. However, there may be enough lift to squeeze out a dusting of snow, particularly across north-central Minnesota and eastward into the Interstate 35 and Highway 61 corridors by Wednesday morning. Any accumulations will be very light. Wednesday will see a return to near-normal temperatures in the 20s as a ridge of high pressure briefly moves through the area.

A more active weather pattern takes hold on Thursday as a clipper system approaches from the northwest. A warm front will initially lift across the region early Thursday morning, bringing a round of light snow. As temperatures climb into the mid to upper 30s during the day, we expect a transition to rain or a messy wintry mix. There is a specific concern for a period of freezing drizzle or freezing rain mid- morning Thursday because of limited moisture in the higher levels of the atmosphere, though confidence in the occurrence of icing remains low at this time.

By Thursday evening, a strong cold front will sweep across the Northland. Precipitation may start as rain or a mix as surface temperatures decrease faster than the air aloft. However, temperatures aloft will quickly fall below freezing, switching all precipitation to snow overnight. While total snow accumulations will be light due to the low moisture environment, the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin have the best chance for measurable amounts. The combination of melting and refreezing could lead to hazardous, slippery road conditions for the Friday morning commute.

Looking toward the weekend, temperatures will drop back into the teens and 20s on Friday following the frontal passage. High pressure should provide a brief period of dry weather on Saturday. However, global models are hinting at additional clipper systems moving through the Great Lakes region in the northwest flow aloft late Sunday into early next week. There is still significant uncertainty regarding the exact track and timing of these systems, but the general trend suggests a continued pattern of occasional light snow and fluctuating temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for today except HYR. Stratus will linger for the morning. The HYR TAF has MVFR ceilings scattering by late morning, but may need to be extended as models suggest the cloud deck remaining in place for the afternoon. But with the sun expected today, it is suspected that the models are holding on to it too long. A weak system will bring decreasing ceilings and flurries to light snow showers overnight, which could lead to MVFR ceilings and visibilities at times. These are conveyed with PROB30s for the appropriate terminals. Light winds are expected throughout the TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 423 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Expect quiet conditions on Western Lake Superior through Wednesday afternoon with winds under 10 knots and waves 1 foot or less. Conditions will deteriorate Wednesday night into Thursday as southwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots as a clipper approaches, potentially requiring Small Craft Advisories.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.