textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain today with some brief freezing rain for the Twin Ports and NW WI this morning.

- Snow Squall potential for tomorrow afternoon across the Arrowhead, Twin Ports and NW WI.

- Temperature roller coaster continues with highs climbing into the 40s and 50s at times and crashing back to below freezing in the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

A baroclinic zone is set up over the Northland this morning as a parade of weak surface lows move over the Midwest. Surface temperatures remain highly variable across the region with below freezing across the Borderlands and the Arrowhead to in the mid and upper 40s along our south. Radar shows a wave of precipitation entering from the west along a 700mb FGEN ribbon. We do have an extensive warm nose across the area that reaches almost to the International Border. Rain is the primary concern for most of the region as this wave passes through this morning and afternoon. However, cooler temperatures will filter in from the north through the morning hours. Based on where the wave of precipitation is setting up this could lead to a brief period of freezing rain for the Twin Ports and into the NW WI causing a light glaze of ice for the morning commute. Activity will taper off through the afternoon with highs stalling out in the low 40s across the south and low 30s across the north.

Friday:

The baroclinic zone will have pushed off to the southeast on Friday with cooler temperatures in place through the day. Cyclonic flow aloft with a PVA couplet moving through to provide a modest boost to synoptic forcing may lead to a more eventful Friday then originally thought. Lingering low level moisture will be present and our low level lapse rates steepen quite significantly in the afternoon hours. A few model soundings show 9C/km lapse rates stretching up from 0-2km leading to some 50-90 J/kg of surface CAPE. This has the makings of some intense snow showers and possible snow squalls in the afternoon hours. CAMs aren't super excited about the signal yet but a few are starting to paint some echoes moving through NW WI. The snow squall parameter would suggest the threat area would also include the Twin Ports and the Arrowhead.

Weekend:

High pressure briefly moves across the region Friday night through Saturday morning but it is quickly ushered away as a warm front moves in from the west. Our current forecast is dry for Saturday but weak forcing out ahead of the front may promote some very light precipitation. With warm air still behind the forcing this would likely lead to snow briefly making an appearance, accumulations would likely only be a trace given the lack of a good moisture source.

Thermal ridging really hones in on the Northland with temperatures rapidly increasing as we head into Sunday. Highs away from Lake Superior will soar into the 50s and 60s once again.

Next Week:

The freeze thaw cycle continues through the work week with highs climbing into the 40s and 50s with lows dropping to below freezing at night. Not a lot of confidence in what will transpire past Monday as solutions have a high amount of variance. The Euro and the GFS are showing some signals of a large system developing by Tuesday but when looking at low clusters there is no discernible consensus.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Mostly rain moving across the southern half of our CWA this morning with some pockets of freezing rain being reported near DLH. Ceilings vary widely across the area with LIFR stratus near Lake Superior and another batch up near the International Border. Over where the rain action is the ceilings range from VFR to MVFR. Precipitation will end west to east through the late morning and early afternoon hours with ceilings improving as well. Widespread VFR conditions are expected to return this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Enhanced northeast winds today will gust to around 20 kts at times and lead to building waves of 2 to 4 ft from Oak Point to Saxon Harbor, including the Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories will be in effect this morning and into the afternoon. Afterwards, hazardous conditions across western Lake Superior don't look to return until Monday night when strong easterlies return.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150.