textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will affect areas from Brainerd to the Twin Ports and southeast today. The best chance for two inches or more is across NW WI.

- A heavy band of lake effect snow may bring a short lived period of intense snowfall to portions of the South Shore, extending from northern Douglas county, east across Bayfield, Ashland and Iron County this afternoon into early Sunday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- Colder temperatures are expected for the much of the work week with additional passing chances of snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The very beginnings of the lake effect snow we expect later today is beginning to set up over the lake this morning, with a cluster of radar returns between the Apostle Islands, Two Harbors and Silver Bay, which periodically drift onto land an produce light snow showers. So far this does not appear too significant, but later today as the easterly flow strengthens and more moisture moves into the area, I expect this to increase and begin to push some decent lake effect bands onto the North Shore, generally south of Silver Bay. During the day today they should not be too strong and have kept to chance pops with only light accumulations. This is within the backdrop of a low pressure system which moves from eastern Kansas this morning northeast to northern Illinois by this evening, then into Michigan tonight. The bulk of this storm will stay to our south, but will contribute moisture and the easterly flow across the lake to help generate the lake effect snow. As the winds slowly back to northeast by this evening, then northerly tonight, the lake effect bands will rotate across the South Shore overnight tonight. We are expecting the bands to persist long enough to produce some moderate snowfall accumulations in the 3 to 6 inch range, mainly overnight tonight. But, we cannot forget about the larger system to our south. The system shifted very slightly north with the evening model runs, which has bumped up the total snowfall amounts for Price county. Given this information, I have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to Douglas, Iron and Price counties beginning this afternoon and continuing overnight tonight. I anticipate we'll be able to drop some of these counties earlier depending on how quickly the trajectory of the LES bands shift, but considering how variable things still look, this seems best for now.

A ridge of high pressure builds into the area early next week, which should bring a period of quiet but colder weather for at least the first parts of the week. The forecast is currently for well below normal temperatures for all of next week, with some potential for single digit to around zero low temperatures for a few nights. An upper level trough moves across the Midwest Monday into Tuesday, followed by another broad trough later in the week. However, there is a lot of low confidence shortwaves that should move through this upper level pattern, giving us intermittent precipitation chances starting Tuesday night and continuing into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 538 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Initial mixed MVFR/VFR conditions are expected to slowly deteriorate today as a low pressure system moves across the Midwest. This system mostly misses the Northland to the south. However, KBRD and KHYR will receive a period of MVFR conditions in light snow beginning this morning, and lingering through the evening hours before conditions improve. Conditions will be lowest at KHYR, with a period of IFR conditions tonight. There is also potential for convergent lake effect snow bands to form. Depending on the track of these bands they could greatly impact KDLH with reduced visibility and moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Have included a period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities this afternoon and evening.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 433 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Northeast winds will gradually increase today over western Lake Superior, causing building waves into the southwest arm of the lake. Wind gusts should increase to 25 to 30 knots by this afternoon and continue tonight, even as the direction backs around to the north overnight and then northwest by Sunday. Have issued Small Craft Advisories starting this afternoon and continuing into Sunday before both winds and waves diminish. The northwest winds diminish into Sunday night, but should increase once again on Monday out of the southwest, potentially causing another round of hazardous conditions for Small Craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Sunday for WIZ009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-140>142-146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ143>145.