textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect cooler weather on Saturday and slightly warmer (but still a bit below average) weather Sunday into next week.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions are possible Sunday due to low relative humidity and gusty winds.

- Occasional rain and thunderstorms are possible next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A cold front is draped across northeastern Minnesota early this morning. Areas of showers have developed ahead of this front across Burnett, Washburn, and Sawyer counties in association with a low-level jet ahead of the front. No lightning has been observed with this activity, but an isolated strike or two cannot be ruled out as this activity moves to the east this morning. Another area of showers is located behind the front along and north of the International Border. This area of showers is expected to drop to the south and east and weaken through the morning. This may bring some light showers to areas along and north of the Iron Range. Additional light showers will be possible later today across mainly northeastern Minnesota as colder air aloft filters in combined with daytime heating. Otherwise, no changes to the previous forecast with this update.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight:

We are now pretty firmly entrenched in cyclonic flow aloft today, and that will continue to be the case through the weekend. There is a healthy cumulus field out there across the region with some embedded showers mainly in northeast Minnesota and over Lake Superior. We're not seeing any lightning strikes at the moment, but with a little added instability this afternoon, there could be some thunder/lightning embedded in these scattered showers. All-in- all, these should be nuisance showers/storms with minimal impacts other than brief heavy rain and thunder/lightning.

As we go into tonight, we're continuing to watch for the potential for a low-level jet to develop in-tandem with some passing short waves aloft. An area of showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop for our southern tier counties and southward, mainly Pine to Price counties. Given that this will be happening overnight and the synoptic environment in general will feature marginally favorable mid-level lapse rates (~6.5-7 C/km), we're not expecting many intense thunderstorms. Overall MUCAPE should be less than 1000 J/kg, and storms likely will not be surface-based with an inversion setting up. With that said, low-level shear will be supportive for some maintenance and strengthening of any thunderstorms despite aforementioned negating factors. A few strong thunderstorms capable of producing some sub-severe gusty winds and hail will be possible and a stray low-end severe thunderstorm can't be totally ruled out, though chances for that are less than 5%. Expect these storms to pass through later this evening and through tonight.

Saturday and Sunday:

A cold front will pass through Saturday morning, and with that, we will be left with some unseasonably cooler air, especially in northern Minnesota with highs only expected to rise into the 50s. We'll have blustery northwest winds as well, making it feel like a late spring or early fall day. Wraparound showers and clouds will round out that vibe for the day. Northwest Wisconsin will likely see some highs in the low 70s and more sunshine, so more of a cool summer feel to the day there.

Going into Sunday, cyclonic northwest flow continues, but any lingering moisture will be limited to Ontario and possibly into the tip of the Arrowhead. Elsewhere, expect a dry air mass to pass through coming from Manitoba and the Dakotas. We will see plenty of sunshine and some relatively warmer temperatures, but also blustery winds. RH may fall into the 25-30% range with winds gusting to around 20-25 mph. Near-critical fire weather may be possible for several areas in these conditions.

Next Week:

Expect a somewhat similar day to Sunday on Monday, except that there may be slightly more moisture in the air. A quick-moving upper-level trough could introduce a ~30% chance for a few showers for some places. Places that don't see much rain could see RH falling into the ~30% range.

The overall pattern through Thursday and maybe Friday looks to be one of continuous west/northwest flow aloft with several troughs passing through. We should have pretty steady off-and-on chances for rain and thunderstorms along with sunshine. It is looking like favorable environments for any strong/severe storms should remain south of us at this time.

Come Friday, broad ridging to the west that will be responsible for our northwest flow may start to drift east. We may return to more of a southerly flow and warm air advection pattern, potentially bringing us back into warmer temperatures and more typical summertime weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. The exception will be at INL where a period of MVFR to IFR ceilings are possible later this morning as an area of showers moves in. Additional shower activity will be possible through the day Saturday at HIB and INL, and perhaps BRD as well. Ceilings are expected to lower Saturday, but remain VFR as cooler air arrives aloft and helps to spark off showers. Winds Saturday will be breezy as well with gusts to 25 to 20 knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Southwesterly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots this morning with gusts to 20 knots. A few gusts to around 25 knots will be possible, mainly along the North Shore from Grand Marais to Grand Portage, but are not expected to be widespread. Have held off on any headlines for now, but will continue to monitor in case winds are stronger than forecast. A cold front will move through this afternoon and turn winds more westerly heading into tonight at 10 to 20 knots. Sunday will feature westerly winds once again at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots. Higher gusts to 25 knots will be possible from the Twin Ports to Grand Portage along the North Shore and may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Winds will become northwesterly this morning as a cold front works through the region. Speeds will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Afternoon RH values will remain above 40% as cooler air and cloud cover overspread the area. A few showers will be possible across northeastern Minnesota as well. Drier conditions are expected for Sunday with afternoon RH values falling into the 25 to 35% range. Northwesterly winds will remain breezy with gusts to 20 to 25 mph once again. This may lead to areas of near-critical fire weather conditions. Monday will see RH values again in the 25 to 35% range, but winds will be a little lighter from the northwest with gusts to around 20 mph. Rain chances then return for late Monday into Tuesday with additional rain chances through the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.