textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- The chance of patchy to areas of fog and/or stratus decreased and develop later than expected starting around the 3 to 6 am timeframe in central Minnesota into the Arrowhead. Conditions would improve by late morning.

- Warmer temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday, bringing well above normal temperatures and with little to no chance of precipitation.

- Increasing southwest winds this afternoon and tonight will build waves and may create hazardous conditions for small craft on western Lake Superior.

- Cooler temperatures Tuesday night through Thursday will bring the potential for light lake-effect snow to portions of northwest Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

TODAY - SUNDAY:

A ridge of surface high pressure is sliding through northern Wisconsin during the current overnight hours, leading to calm to light and variable winds with mostly clear skies aside from some high-level clouds in east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. These conditions are generally favorable for patchy fog and/or low stratus development towards the 3-6 AM timeframe, improving by mid-morning should any develop. Areas of best potential for any fog development would be in the Brainerd Lakes northeast to the Iron Range.

Otherwise, expect any stratus that develops to mix out by mid to late morning, leading to a seasonably mild day with increasing southeast winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s to low/mid 50s, warmest in north-central Minnesota. A weak surface trough and cold front move NW to SE across the Northland this evening and tonight, switching winds to westerly and northwesterly and bring some clouds, but dry low to mid-levels of the atmosphere will keep the frontal passage dry with no precipitation. Lows tonight bottom out in the low to mid 30s, though slightly warmer near Lake Superior.

Breezy northwest winds persist throughout much of the day on Sunday, with some gusts up to 35 mph possible for the North Shore Sunday morning into early afternoon. Despite the dry frontal passage, mid-level shortwave energy across northern Minnesota Sunday morning could lead to a few brief sprinkles or showers in the tip of the Arrowhead (10-30% chances). Little to no precipitation accumulation expected from this activity. Sunday will be another mild temperature day, with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s, warmest in east-central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin.

NEXT WORK WEEK:

No significant changes to the forecast for next work week. Monday and Tuesday will be seasonably warm with highs in the mid/upper 40s to mid 50s and largely dry despite a cold frontal passage on Monday due to the better forcing with the system and the main low pressure across northern Manitoba and far northern Ontario. Global ensembles do show a mix of signal regarding mid- level troughing and much cooler air aloft sliding southward Tuesday night through Thursday. The lack of moisture with these shortwave troughs keeps precipitation chances limited (patchy 10-20% chances), but the 850 mb temps dropping to -5 to -10 degC range over a fairly warm Lake Superior water surface (+8 to 10 degC) should allow for some lake-effect precipitation during the mid to late work week for portions of the South Shore as the shortwave troughs move through. Some light rain and snow mix is possible Wednesday, though cooling temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday could transition this precipitation over to primarily light snow. Regardless, snowfall amounts appear limited at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Areas of IFR to MVFR fog and low stratus have developed in central to northeast Minnesota, with impacts primarily to HIB/BRD. There is also an expansive area of low stratus that has developed north of the International Border, but currently do not anticipate it expanding south to INL due to light south to southwesterly surface winds. Conditions in fog and low stratus should improve by late morning, with VFR conditions returning. Southwesterly winds today increase by late this morning with gusts of 15-20 kt through the afternoon. Winds veer westerly to west-northwesterly tonight and remain elevated behind a cold front. LLWS arrives this evening and tonight for most terminals behind the front with westerly to northwesterly winds aloft.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Winds during the current overnight are 10 to 15 knots or less out of the south to southwest. However, these winds will be on the increase out of the southwest this morning and afternoon with gusts to 15 to 25 knots. Gusts increase further this evening and tonight to 25 to 30 knots, leading to . This will build waves to 3 to 6 feet north of Grand Marais and 3 to 5 feet for Port Wing to the Outer Apostles and portions of the North Shore. These winds remain gusty on Sunday, turning westerly in the morning and northwesterly in the afternoon before weakening Sunday evening. This will lead to a period of hazardous conditions for smaller vessels, with Small Craft Advisories having been issued for Grand Marais to Grand Portage starting late this morning, and for the remainder of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters late this afternoon through Sunday. Winds become light and variable Sunday night and then southwesterly on Monday with gusts of 10 to 20 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fire weather concerns remain low through the rest of this weekend and next work wee, with minimum relative humidity values of 40% to around 60-70% most days, being lowest on Tuesday. Precipitation chances remain limited to nil the rest of this weekend, dry Monday and Tuesday, and then some limited chances (10-20%) for light precipitation on Tuesday night into Thursday. Portions of the South Shore should also see light lake-effect precipitation chances Tuesday night through Thursday night, with light snow potential in this lake-effect on Tuesday and Tuesday night and primarily light snow Wednesday night through Thursday night. Snow amounts also look limited at this time. Light and variable winds early this morning turn southwest today and increase with gusts to 15 to around 20 mph this afternoon and evening. Winds turn westerly tonight and then northwesterly on Sunday behind a cold front while remaining gusty. Some gusts along the North Shore on Sunday morning and early afternoon could reach up to 25-35 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-141>143-146>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ144-145.