textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal to well-above normal temperatures for the next several days with near-critical fire weather conditions in the afternoons to early evenings due to low relative humidities.

- 20-50% chances for showers and a few general storms in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley late this afternoon into Monday.

- Dangerous swimming conditions are likely on Monday due to strong northeast winds and building waves leading to a high risk of rip currents for the beaches of Duluth and Superior.

- Better coverage of shower and thunderstorm chances return starting on Wednesday when we transition back to a more active weather pattern.

UPDATE

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Early this Morning and Today:

Surface high pressure has settled over the Great Lakes during the current overnight hours, which is leading to an easing of winds across the Northland. Some mid- and upper-level shortwave energy to our southwest is kicking off some light rain shower activity in southern and west-central MN, but this activity will remain south of the Northland through the morning hours. Expect low temperatures to range from low to mid 50s in north-central MN and portions of inland NW WI to mid to upper 40s elsewhere.

For today, while upper-level ridging largely remains overhead, the aforementioned shortwave energy does nudge into portions of the Brainerd Lakes east into the St. Croix River Valley for late this afternoon/evening and tonight. There is a 20% to locally 50% chance for a line of scattered rain showers and perhaps a couple weak thunderstorms (10-20% chance) in the aforementioned areas, but drier low-level air may keep much of this precipitation from reaching the ground. Forecast accumulations are less than 0.1-0.2" and limited in coverage.

The main concern for today will be for near-critical fire weather conditions this afternoon into early evening as minimum relative humidities dip to 15-25% for the Iron Range into Arrowhead and areas north. The remainder of the Northland will largely be in the 25-40% minimum relative humidity range as cloud cover will be higher for southern portions of the Northland, though a few pockets of 20-25% RH can be expected in north-central and inland NW WI. East to southeast winds will largely be on the lighter side today at 5-10 mph with gusts remaining less than 20 mph except on a localized basis in the Brainerd Lakes, so conditions do not warrant a need for Red Flag Warnings. Look for high temperatures in the 70s to 80s--cooler at the Twin Ports and immediately near Lake Superior--before a Lake Breeze pushes inland during the afternoon and evening.

Monday - Tuesday:

Low chances for showers (10-40%) and isolated storms linger into daytime Monday as the shortwave energy lingers in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley with nil to very light additional rainfall accumulations. Otherwise, expect dry conditions for the Northland for Monday and Tuesday. A pseudo- omega blocking pattern aloft keeps the mid- and upper-level ridge influence in the Northland through Tuesday, keeping high temperatures above to well-above average both days in the upper 70s to 80s away from Lake Superior and cooler near the Lake. Near-critical fire weather conditions continue for both afternoons into early evenings due to low relative humidities, but winds not being overly gusty should keep fire conditions below Red Flag Warning criteria. Expect Lake Superior lake breezes to also occur Monday and Tuesday afternoons into evenings.

Breezy onshore winds on Monday into Monday evening at the head of Lake Superior will likely lead to increasing waves and a high risk for rip currents at the beaches of Duluth and Superior. A Beach Hazard Statement will likely be needed.

Beyond Tuesday:

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. The pattern becomes more active starting on Wednesday as

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Backdoor cold front has stalled out over western MN this afternoon with some breezy northeast winds streaming across Lake Superior. Still looking at a warm and dry day across the region, especially away from Lake. Highs will climb into the 70s and 80s before a Lake breeze sweeps in later this afternoon. This breeze will quickly reduce those temperatures into the 50s and 60s through the evening hours.

Sunday-Tuesday:

Not a lot of changes on the horizon through the early portions of next week. An omega block contorts itself a bit over the time period with the Northland remaining on the outskirts of activity with upper level ridging lingering over the region. A fairly classic set up for the Northland albeit slightly warmer than normal with temperatures warming into the 70s and 80s before a Lake Breeze comes plowing through in the afternoon and evening hours. There will be continued concern for some near critical fire weather conditions as we dry out in the afternoon hours, but wind speeds are not expected to be high enough to warrant any Red Flag Warnings. Sunday evening into Monday there is some low chance (15-30%) PoPs across the Brainerd Lakes as a shortwave pivots in from the southwest. Not a consistent signal at this time but some of the CAMs want to form a line of showers.

Midweek:

Cluster analysis has the omega blocking pattern breaking on Wednesday with upper level ridging shifting to the east. This will allow for southwest flow aloft and a return to a more active weather pattern. PWATs will increase to over 1" with southerly surface winds boosting dewpoints to above 60F. Instability will build back with this influx of moisture increasing the chances (40-60%) for showers and storms to develop. Upper level flow becomes more zonal with several impulses moving across the region allowing for continued precipitation chances through the end of the work week. A bit too soon to really narrow down the potential for severe weather. At this time there is some agreement amongst the 12Z suite of deterministic guidance of bringing an upper level jet into northern MN on Wednesday. Paired with the instability could bring about some stronger storms.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Southeast winds persist through Sunday, but easterly at DLH, and remain at or below 10 kts. Occasional gusts to 15-18 kts are possible in the afternoon to early evening, with the best potential at BRD. High clouds will be prevalent at most terminals through the period, but VFR conditions are expected. Some mid-level clouds push into BRD this afternoon into tonight with a 20-30% chance for light showers and a 10-20% chance for an isolated storm or two late this afternoon into Sunday night, but conditions are favored to remain VFR due to dry low-level air.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Winds weaken during the current overnight hours with waves also diminishing. Variable winds become northeast once again today into this evening at 5-10 kt, with gusts to around 15 kt in the southwest arm of Lake Superior during the daylight hours leading to wave heights of 1-2 ft near the Twin Ports. Winds become variable and light again Sunday night, then increase out of the Northeast on Monday at 10-20 kt with gusts of 15-25 kt building waves to 2-5 ft. Strongest winds will be northeast of Taconite Harbor, in the Outer Apostle Islands, and the southwest arm of Lake Superior. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected once again for portions of northeast Minnesota including the Arrowhead, Iron Range, and areas north to the International Border. These areas have the least potential for cloud cover to inhibit mixing today, and Min RH is forecast to dip to 15-25% this afternoon with southeast winds of 4-8 mph, afternoon gusts of around 9-15 mph and high temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Elsewhere in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, expect 25-40% min RH, though pockets of 20-25% min RH may still be found in portions of north-central and inland northwest Wisconsin. Similarly light wind conditions can be found in these other locations, as well, with the caveat that the Brainerd Lakes could see occasional afternoon gusts of 15-18 mph. A lake breeze is also expected to push inland during the afternoon and evening.

Can't rule out some scattered light rain showers and perhaps a storm or two (20-50% chance) late this afternoon through daytime Monday in the Brainerd Lakes to St. Croix River Valley, but nil to localized 0.1-0.2" of rain are expected. Overall, warm and dry conditions are favored for Monday and Tuesday across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin with similarly lighter winds and locations of lower RH on Monday, while 20-30% min RH coverage is wider on Tuesday but winds remain largely lighter.

Better rain shower and thunderstorm chances return starting Wednesday, with off and on rain chances through the latter half of the week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.