textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A chance for a wintry mix in the Arrowhead and north-central WI this afternoon and tonight. Snow accumulations through tonight are expected to be 0.5" or less.

- A dry pattern settles over the region starting tomorrow for the remainder of the workweek. Temperatures will become unseasonably warm, with highs reaching the mid 40s to low 50s for most by Friday.

- The next chance for precipitation arrives this weekend ahead of a cold front with precipitation type likely to be rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

We have a chance for a wintry mix this afternoon and tonight as a shortwave moves across Ontario. In the wake of this system, we should have an area of lingering stratus this evening. Beneath the stratus, there may be some light precipitation, as wintry mixture. Ptype is going to be a bit tricky as there are some hints we may lose ice aloft, which would produce freezing drizzle instead of a simpler rain/snow mixture. Have stuck to the rain/snow mix for now, but we may need to make adjustments later this evening.

A quiet pattern is expected to settle over the CWA for the remainder of the workweek. A ridge building over the central CONUS will bring warmer temperatures to the area, with high temps on Friday and Saturday in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The next best chance for precip is still on track to arrive this weekend as a cold front sweeps through the CWA, with p-type most likely being rain. Early indications show that thunderstorms may occur on Saturday afternoon in the warm sector ahead of the cold front, but the potential is very low at this time (<10% chance).

Another period of generally quiet weather is expected early next week with another ridge of high pressure building into the area. Temperatures cool back off to near normal values, with highs in the 30s to around 40 and overnight lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Satellite and radar shows some MVFR ceilings rotating across the region this evening with some isolated showers. Farther west clearing skies can be seen eating away at the cloud deck as they continue to encroach on the Northland. An overall improving trend is expected through the overnight hours with sky conditions clearing west to east. There is a weak signal for some freezing drizzle possible at INL tomorrow morning but will leave it out of the TAF for now and see how models trend. Tomorrow expect some wind gusts around 20 kts out of the northwest.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 346 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Westerly winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 30 knots today will gradually veer to the northwest tonight. The strongest wind gusts will be over the open waters and around the Apostle islands tonight, where waves will build to 4 to 6 feet. Winds will increase still further on Wednesday, there will be a 10-30% chance for a few gale force gusts from Grand Marais to Grand Portage and in the Outer Apostle Islands. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all of western Lake Superior through Wednesday evening. Winds will slowly diminish Wednesday night with northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots expected for Thursday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Wednesday night for LSZ121-141>148. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140-150.