textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold wind chills last into Tuesday morning.

- The rest of the week remains cold, and becomes even colder Thursday into this weekend. Expect the coldest air of the season.

- Another clipper will affect portions of the Northland Wednesday, though impacts and snowfall accumulations are expected to be minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Arctic air continues to dominate the Northland today and tonight. The Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin as high temperatures struggle to climb to zero today. Wind chills this afternoon will stay between 10 to 20 below zero, plummeting further to between 25 and 35 below zero tonight. Frostbite can occur on exposed skin in as little as 10 to 30 minutes. The advisory was extended in time this morning to now run through noon Tuesday but may be cancelled earlier if conditions improve faster than anticipated tomorrow morning.

Along the South Shore in northwest Wisconsin, lake effect snow will persist through the morning hours. An additional two inches of accumulation is possible in northern Iron County, leading to slick travel conditions for the morning commute. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9 am. Meanwhile, northerly winds along the North Shore have been observed to gust 40 to 45 mph early this morning, but are expected to begin to diminish over the next few hours as the pressure gradient weakens closer to pre-dawn hours this morning. However, gusts up to 30 mph will remain north of Two Harbors through the morning daylight hours even after the Wind Advisory ends at 6 am.

A weak atmospheric disturbance will move southward this afternoon and is forecast to help create flurries across northern Minnesota, primarily along and north of the US Highway 2 corridor. These flurries will be driven by horizontal convective rolls and are expected to last from around Noon through late evening, lingering longest in the Arrowhead region. A dusting may occur over a few hour period from these bands of flurries later today.

A light clipper system will arrive Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. This will bring a broad chance for very light snowfall across the region, with chances manually increased over initial model guidance. Total accumulations appear minor, with a dusting expected north of US Highway 2 and around a half- inch further south across east-central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. While temperatures will moderate slightly mid-week, this warm up will be relative as temperatures remain 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal normals.

The most significant concern for the upcoming week is a reinforced surge of even colder Arctic air now forecast to arrive on Thursday. This extreme cold will linger through the weekend and is expected to be the coldest air of the season so far. The most frigid period is expected from Thursday evening through Sunday morning, when air temperatures are likely to remain below zero the entire time. Overnight low air temperatures are forecast to reach between 25 and 35 below zero, with a 75 percent chance of seeing air temperatures as low as 35 to 40 below zero across the Borderlands and Iron Range Friday night into Saturday morning. These frigid air temperatures with west to northwest winds of 3 to 8 mph may create wind chills of 40 to 50 below zero in northern Minnesota and 35 to 45 below zero in northwest Wisconsin. The current forecast for Friday night/Saturday morning low temperature is within a few degrees of the daily record low temperatures for both International Falls and Hibbing. Extreme Cold headlines are very likely to be needed in time for this late week and weekend Arctic air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are prevailing early this morning in northern Minnesota outside of some likely anthropogenic snow streams on the Iron Range. These are causing periodic MVFR/IFR visibilities at KHIB and are expected into the 15-16Z time period today. As a band of light snowfall moves through northwest Wisconsin, improving conditions are being observed behind it and expected shortly at KHYR. A period of mist and maybe flurries is forecast to drop southward into the region from Ontario 16 to 19Z and create a period of afternoon and evening MVFR ceilings and visibility. A few hours even of IFR to maybe LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility were placed in TAFs via TEMPO mentions with this latest issuance. Conditions look to improve again from 00-06Z Tues.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 607 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect today for the South Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots will continue today and are creating conditions hazardous to small craft. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Waves of 4 to 7 feet will subside this evening along the South Shore, while North Shore waves remain 2 to 4 feet. Conditions may remain hazardous for small craft through at least Tuesday morning with extensions in time possibly needed later today for those Advisories. A wind shift to southwesterly Tuesday daytime leads to a decrease in the coverage for expected hazardous conditions though leading into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004- 006>009. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 140>148-150. Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for LSZ142. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for LSZ145>147. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ150.