textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind chills of 30 to 35 below zero are forecast for portions of Cook County this morning. Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect.

- Light snow and flurries will move through the Northland today. Visibility may drop below 1 mile at times. Less than 1 inch of snow is forecast.

- There will be additional rounds of light snow Friday night/Saturday morning and Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.

- More impactful systems may affect the region during the Jan 9-13 period.

UPDATE

Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Strong winds have not developed along the North Shore. Therefore we cancelled the Wind Advisory.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 416 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light snow will spread across the Northland this morning as a shortwave trough propagates southeastward over the region. As of 09Z the trough axis stretched from northeast Montana to central Manitoba and was accompanied by a vort max over southeast Saskatchewan and southwest Manitoba as observed on GOES-East water vapor imagery. Ahead of the trough axis a northwest to southeast oriented zone of 900-600 mb frontogenesis was found over eastern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and southern Manitoba. Regional radar mosaic and surface observations revealed an area of light to moderate snow which stretched from northwest Minnesota to southeastern Saskatchewan.

Cloud cover limited radiational cooling overnight and light winds kept a thin boundary layer mixed over the region. Temperatures did not cool as much as expected which also means wind chills weren't as cold as forecast. With these factors in mind we cancelled the Cold Weather Advisory except for the interior Arrowhead and southern Cook County (Cook County has the best chances of seeing wind chills between 30 and 35 below zero this morning). The Wind Advisory for southern Cook County remains in effect as there is still a chance that katabatic flow will develop over the next few hours. CKC and GNA have both had periods of gusty winds over the past 2 hours. It's possible the lack of radiational cooling prevented a sufficiently deep pool of cold air over the interior Arrowhead needed to initiate the drainage flow toward Lake Superior.

The snow will move into central and north-central Minnesota around 6 AM and into northwest Wisconsin before 9 AM. Radar returns intensified over the past hour in a narrow band from near Detroit Lakes, MN to near Langdon, ND and snow may arrive earlier under this band. There remains dry air ahead of the wave to overcome. Similar to yesterday's snow, visibility will fluctuate as small areas of slightly more intense snow move through the region. We expect visibility to generally be between 1 and 3 miles in snow, but could be briefly less than 1 mile at times. A deep snow growth layer with two zones favoring dendrites should result in efficient snow production. Snow ratios of 20-30:1 are likely. Roads may become slippery as the low moisture content will make it easy for vehicle traffic to melt the snow which would quickly refreeze into a thin layer of ice. Total snow accumulation should be less than an inch across the area.

Snow departs late this morning through the early afternoon and temperatures will rebound later today with highs in the low single figures north to around 10 degrees south. Skies will be slow to clear in the wake of the shortwave trough and will hang on into the evening. Clearing is expected later tonight with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies to start the day Friday. Highs for the second day of 2026 will be in the middle single figures to the low teens.

Another weak shortwave will propagate east-southeastward across the region Friday night and Saturday morning. This will bring yet another round of light snow to the Northland. Accumulations are expected to be less than an inch once again. Temperatures will begin a noticeable warming trend on Saturday with highs in the teens and low 20s.

The weak clipper parade continues Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Another shot of snow is forecast with accumulations perhaps a little higher, from a dusting up to a couple inches. Snow may be ongoing for the Monday morning commute. The warming trend continues Monday with much warmer temperatures forecast. Highs will be in the middle 20s to low 30s, around 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early January. Tuesday should see temperatures a few degrees either side of freezing before a slight cool down next Wednesday. Monday night and Tuesday may bring another chance of light snow with another fast-moving trough.

Attention then shifts to late next week. A deep trough will dig into the western United States by next weekend. A stronger shortwave trough may lift through the Midwest in the Thursday night through Friday night period. The trajectory of that system suggests it could tap into richer moisture the Baja and the Gulf. The larger western trough is forecast to progress eastward into the Rockies by late in the weekend which could lead to another storm system impacting the region around Jan 11 to 13.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Light snow arrived at BRD in the past 30 minutes and immediately brought visibility down to IFR. Upstream obs suggest IFR CIGS will follow in the next hour or so. Expect snow to spread southeastward with time this morning. IFR visibility at DLH and HIB remain possible between about 14Z and 19Z. Left PROB30 group in place at those sites. MVFR visibility in snow at INL is less likely despite ROX and RRT indicating lower visibility. Think those slightly heavier snow bands will pass south of INL. HYR will see snow arrive later this morning between 14Z and 15Z and should see visibility decrease into IFR. Ceilings will lower at all sites and prolonged MVFR conditions are expected after snow ends. Look for clearing tonight although HYR may hold onto MVFR CIGS all night.

MARINE

Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

We have not seen evidence of strong drainage flow along the North Shore over the past few hours. Therefore we cancelled the Gale Warning and replaced it with a Small Craft Advisory for Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage from now until Friday evening. The Small Craft Advisory for the Outer Apostle Islands was also extended into Friday evening. The remaining Small Craft Advisories were cancelled.

Previous Discussion Issued at 416 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Gusty west winds are forecast this morning and will gradually weaken by mid to late morning. Conditions remain favorable for the development of strong downslope winds off the high terrain of the North Shore between Little Marais and Hovland. Therefore the Gale Warning remains in effect. If the strong downslope winds don't develop before 12Z, the warning may be cancelled early. West winds with gusts of 25 to 30 knots will remain a hazard to smaller vessels through Friday for Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage along the North Shore and for the Outer Apostle Islands. The highest waves today through Friday will be along portions of the South Shore and the Outer Apostle Islands. Waves will be 1 to 4 feet from Duluth to Sand Island and up to 6 feet for the Outer Apostle Islands. Both wind and waves will subside by Friday evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ012- 021. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST Friday for LSZ140-141-150.