textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief, rapid clearing in skies this afternoon. A quick moving Clipper system will bring a brief round of very light rain and snow this evening into tonight.

- Much warmer on Sunday as breezy southwest winds push afternoon temperatures into the 50s for most locations. Light precipitation, mostly in the form of rain, is also in store for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

- The Northland remains in an active zonal flow pattern for this coming week into early the following week as several low pressure systems are poised to move through the Midwest and bring additional rounds of precipitation, mostly in the form of snow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today - Tonight:

Seeing rapid clearing of some low stratus this afternoon from west to east as drier air works into the area with the edge of some surface high pressure. Expect temperatures to top out in the mid 30s to low 40s by late this afternoon, warmest in our west.

The period of benign weather will be brief, however, as a quick-moving Clipper system moving east across Manitoba and far northwest Ontario will bring a surface trough/cool front through the Northland. There is enough moisture with this system to produce 2-4 hours of quick, light accumulations of rain with some snow mixed in for any one location this evening and tonight. Look for total liquid precipitation amounts of 0.10" or less, highest in far northern Minnesota. Snow amounts will be minimal to nil, generally a half inch or less in the Arrowhead and less to no accumulations elsewhere. Gusty southwest winds will also develop ahead of the front this evening and turn westerly tonight.

Sunday - Monday:

Substantial warming arrives on Sunday as breezy southwest winds and warm-air advection usher in high temperatures in the 50s for most of the area. Some mid/upper 40s are possible in the tip of the Arrowhead and we could even see near 60F in the Brainerd Lakes and far southern portions of Pine to Price counties. Another quick-moving Clipper system will slide just north of the International Border Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, bringing another round of precipitation--mainly in the form of light rain--for areas generally along and north of US-2 late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. Temperatures start to cool behind this Clipper system on Monday, with highs in the 30s to low 40s in much of northeast Minnesota and mid 40s to low 50s in the Brainerd Lakes east to northwest Wisconsin.

Monday night - Wednesday:

While the Upper Midwest will be in a largely zonal flow pattern aloft to start the work week, a broad trough in the Pacific Northwest on Monday will amplify as it slides eastwards into the Northern Plains by late Tuesday and Upper Midwest on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low currently over the Baja California region is forecast to open up into a trough on Tuesday and merge with the base of the amplifying northern-stream trough on Wednesday. At the surface, this will kick off lee cyclogenesis in Colorado on Tuesday, with a strengthening Colorado Low then tracking through the mid-Mississippi Valley on Tuesday night and into the lower-Great Lakes on Wednesday. Additionally, a surface low tracking along the International Border in Montana/North Dakota on Tuesday will then move through the Northland vicinity on Wednesday and funnel some moisture into our region from the southern low pressure.

As a result of the interplay between these two systems, a frontogenetically-forced band of precipitation is expected to develop in the Northland Monday night into Tuesday, potentially have a lull in precipitation late Tuesday, and then finish with another round of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday in a broader region of wrap-around precipitation as the two low pressure systems interact with each other more. Both rounds of precipitation should have fairly favorable forcing for ascent, with the Tuesday night to early Wednesday round having the best mid- and upper-level dynamics/divergence. With surface temperatures closer to normal during this early week timeframe (i.e. highs in the 30s to around 40 and lows below freezing), most of the precipitation should fall in the form of snow, though there is some uncertainty as to whether any rain can mix in with the snow on daytime Tuesday for far southern portions of the Northland given an above freezing temperature forecast.

Expect accumulating snow during the early week timeframe, though remains uncertainty regarding snow amounts, locations of the heaviest snowfall amounts, and the north-south placement of the tight transition line between all snow and a rain/snow mix on Tuesday. The latest NBM snowfall probabilities and forecast plumes show fairly wide spread in the snow accumulations, with non-trivial tails in probabilities for several inches of snow. NBM snowfall probabilities for Monday evening - Wednesday of >2" range from 10-90%, with the lowest probabilities of 10-40% in far north-central Minnesota and along the rain/snow transition gradient in far southern portions of northwest Wisconsin. Probabilities peak in the 80%+ range for the Twin Ports, North Shore, and South Shore as easterly to northeasterly winds lend at least some enhancement to accumulations from terrain and Lake Superior. The Twin Ports and North and South Shores are also where probabilities of >4" are also highest at 40-70%. Non- trivial higher amounts are also possible in the near-Lake Superior locations, with >6" probabilities still in the 15-35% range, but tied to exactly where the highest snowfall rates in the snowband set up. Clearer details on this system to come in the next day or so.

Active Pattern Continuing:

Global ensembles are in fairly good agreement on a more potent Clipper system moving either near the International Border or through the Upper Midwest Thursday night and Friday, with the potential for moderate to heavy banded snow on eastern and northern areas of the surface low track that could impact portions of the Northland depending on the exact track of the surface low.

Model spread widens with lower confidence in surface weather features towards mid-March. However, with a largely zonal flow pattern continuing aloft, expect the active weather pattern to persist beyond next weekend into at least early the following week with more precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 604 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

BKN MVFR ceilings at HYR should scatter out by 01-02Z. VFR elsewhere early this evening. A quick-moving clipper system moving west to east across the region this evening and tonight will bring a brief 1 to 3 hours of light rain to much of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Temperatures near freezing could lead to light snow mixing in at times at HIB/DLH/HYR. Minimal to no snow accumulations expected. Could briefly see MVFR conditions with the precipitation, and some MVFR ceilings late this evening and early overnight at INL. Gusty winds up to 30 kt and widespread low-level wind shear ramp up this evening and tonight, with the gusty surface winds persisting on Sunday at 18-25 kt. Low-level wind shear diminishes by mid-Sunday morning. Another round of light VFR rain is possible late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, mainly in north-central and northeastern Minnesota.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

West winds of 10-15 knots will back to southwest late this afternoon, with winds strengthening this evening and tonight as the pressure gradient increases in association with a passing Clipper system to our north. Timing for the Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories remain unchanged. The Gale Warnings begin at 8 PM this evening for the North Shore north of Taconite Harbor and in the Outer Apostle Islands, where gusts up to 35-40 knots are expected late this evening and tonight. Waves will build to 4 to 8 feet overnight. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the remainder of the nearshore waters into Sunday. Winds briefly diminish below 25 kt late Sunday afternoon and evening, then increase out of the west Monday night and linger along the North Shore into Monday morning before diminishing for the rest of Monday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM CST Sunday for LSZ140-141-150. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ142>146-148.