textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow showers today will bring up to an inch of accumulation with isolated higher amounts along the South Shore.

- Strong northwest winds arrive this afternoon and continue into tonight. Gusts to 35 mph are expected with higher gusts to 45 mph possible along the North Shore. A Wind Advisory may be needed.

- Temperatures will remain below zero this weekend for most with wind chills in the 20s and 30s below zero both Saturday and Sunday mornings. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

High pressure was in place across the Northland early this morning with an area of low pressure in northeastern Manitoba. A cold front extended to the southwest across northwestern Ontario, far northwestern Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Light snow showers were evident on radar ahead of the front across north-central Minnesota. This front will work across the Upper Midwest today and bring light snow showers to the region this morning into this afternoon. Snow will linger across the Bayfield Peninsula into Iron County tonight into Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. Accumulations will be under an inch for most across the Northland with an inch or two across the higher elevations of the Bayfield Peninsula and into northern Iron County.

Following the front, a tight pressure gradient will set up across the region as cold Canadian high pressure worked into the Northern Plains. This will lead to strong northwesterly winds across the Northland with widespread gusts to 25 to 35 mph this afternoon and tonight. This may lead to areas of blowing snow. Higher gusts to 35 to 45 mph will be possible along the North Shore due to a combination of factors coming together. This was covered extremely well in the previous AFD. All three mechanisms discussed previously remain in place. There still remains a chance for some higher gusts to around 50 mph in some of the hi- res guidance, most notably the ARW. Confidence on these higher gusts is not high enough for a Wind Advisory with this update, but if the signal remains, one may be needed for the North Shore zones.

Very cold air arrives behind the front later today and tonight and lingers for the weekend. Highs will likely occur around midday for most areas with readings in the teens before falling through the afternoon and tonight, bottoming out in the teens below zero. Areas near Lake Superior will remain in the single digits below zero. Temperatures don't recover much for Saturday with highs in the single digits below zero along with positive signal digits near the lake. Temperatures then tumble into the teens and 20s below zero Saturday night into Sunday morning before warming in the single digits above zero for Sunday. Winds are not expected to die off both tonight and Saturday nights, so wind chills will fall into the 30s below zero tonight and 20s and 30s below zero Saturday night. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire CWA starting tonight and continuing into Sunday.

High pressure moves to the southeast Sunday night into Monday with southerly flow developing. This will bring warmer air to the region with highs reaching the teens and 20s above zero for Monday. A clipper will graze the region Monday and may bring a few light snow showers mainly to the Arrowhead and Borderlands. Temperatures further warm into the 30s with perhaps a few 40s for Tuesday with 30s sticking around for Wednesday. Another system will pass to the north in the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame with chances for rain and snow showers. The pattern looks to remain active heading into the latter part of the week with hints at a larger system impacting the region, although global models are painting different pictures currently.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the region early this morning, but our next clipper is knocking on the door. MVFR snow showers and MVFR ceilings will spread from west to east through the morning and end late this morning into early afternoon. While VSBYs are expected to improve, MVFR ceilings are expected to persist. Some of the models are trying to bring in some IFR ceilings in spots late this afternoon into early evening, but have kept MVFR with this update. Winds will also increase behind the system this afternoon with gusts to 20 to 25 knots into this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 337 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Southwesterly winds of 10 to 20 knots this morning will turn northwesterly around midday as a cold front passes. Winds will then increase to 15 to 25 knots with gales to 35 to 40 knots expected along the North Shore this afternoon and tonight. A few storm force gusts remain possible, mainly between Silver Bay and Grand Marais. A Gale Warning has been issued for much of the North Shore for tonight with Small Craft Advisories elsewhere. Additionally, heavy freezing spray is expected along parts of the South Shore and Outer Apostle Islands as well tonight. Winds will continue to gusts to 25 to 30 knots on Saturday into Saturday night before diminishing on Sunday. Lake effect snow showers Saturday and Sunday may lead to reduced visibilities at times.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CST Sunday for LSZ121-144>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>143. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday for LSZ140>143. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM CST Saturday for LSZ146-147-150.