textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers will spread across the region early Friday and linger into Saturday morning. The heaviest rainfall (30-50% of 1") will be south of a line from Brainerd to Sandstone to Hayward to Park Falls. - Dangerous swimming conditions expected for the beaches of the Twin Ports Friday and Saturday then again Sunday and Monday afternoons and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Dense cumulus field across the region this afternoon as low level moisture remains in place from yesterday evenings light rain activity. Despite the increased cloud cover we are still looking at highs in the 60s for the majority of the region. Expect this cloud cover to fade this evening. However, cloud cover will gradually increase and thicken overnight from the south ahead of an approaching low pressure system, with overnight lows settling in the upper 30s to upper 40s.

Rain chances will increase early Friday morning as a low pressure system tracks out of the Plains towards the Midwest. Moisture will overspread the region from south to north, but drier air from the departing high pressure over Canada will create a sharp northern edge to the precipitation shield. The latest trend in the models continues to eat away at the rain totals with our southern tier of counties now less likely to receive an inch of rain. Current probabilities have dropped to 30-50% chance of at least an inches from the Brainerd Lakes region east into Price County. Areas farther north toward the Borderlands may see little to no measurable rain. Additionally, instability with this passing system remains low so thunderstorms are not expected. Rain will persist into Saturday morning before tapering off west to east.

Strong northeasterly winds will develop Friday and remain enhanced through Saturday. The favorable direction will lead to rip current and building wave heights for the beaches of the Twin Ports.

High pressure settles over the region for the late weekend period, bringing a return to dry weather for Sunday. Skies will clear out as cooler Canadian air overspreads the Northland, setting up ideal conditions for radiational cooling. Inland locations will see temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s Sunday and Monday night, leading to the potential for patchy frost across low-lying areas.

The dry pattern will persist into early next week with mostly sunny days and chilly nights. A gradual warming trend will take hold by Wednesday, with high temperatures returning to seasonable values in the mid 60s to low 70s. Rain chances may return by late Wednesday night into Thursday, though confidence remains low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions continue for tonight and into early tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will increase in the early morning and will become MVFR and IFR with rain showers across BRD and HYR. Lowered visibilities will also accompany the heaviest rainfall most likely to occur in the early afternoon.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Light winds today will strengthen overnight as they turn to out of the north. Expect gusts to around 20 knots. These winds will increase through Friday, Small Craft Advisories may be needed for areas near the head of the Lake. Winds are expected to briefly weaken on Saturday before strong northeasterlies return on Sunday leading to more hazardous conditions for small vessels.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

No fire weather concerns. Min RHs through the forecast period remain above 35% throughout the next 7 days, with daily temperatures generally in the 60s to low 70s. Rain will spread in from the south Friday into Saturday morning, delivering up to 0.75" across our southern tier counties, with a sharp northern cut-off in totals. Drier conditions and light winds return for Sunday into early next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.