textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue today with highs above freezing. Areas of fog persist. Slight cool down for the weekend before another chance of above freezing temperatures Monday/Tuesday.

- Chance for rain and snow in northwest to north-central Wisconsin this evening into Friday.

- Another chance for snow across the Northland late Friday evening into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Another round of dense fog is impacting most of the Northland early this morning, thanks to cooling temperatures and plentiful low level moisture. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that we should see this fog dissipate and burn off by late this morning through midday. Dense fog is the least likely north of the Iron Range, but an area of weak precipitation is moving in from NW MN spurred along by the leading edge of a jet streak. Unfortunately due to some dry mid level air the precipitation that is able to reach the ground has largely been freezing drizzle/rain leading to a quick icy accumulation between Grand Forks and Lake of the Woods. Based on latest radar tracking and hi-res guidance the best chance for our area to see any of this would be in portions of Koochiching County and maybe northern St. Louis County between 5AM - 9AM.

Today we'll continue to be under warm air advection ahead of a low pressure system ejecting out of the southwest which will continue to keep us in an above normal temperature regime with highs again returning into the mid to upper 30s. As this system tracks northeastward through the Midwest and into the mid-Great Lakes, a rain/snow gumbo is expected for NW WI to north-central WI, with the best chance of accumulations in Sawyer, Ashland, Iron, and Price Counties. While the snow that is expected to fall should be minimal (largely 1" or less), it will be fairly wet or heavy as it transitions from rain. Deterministic models do suggest some heavy banded snow is possible on the north side of this low, but 95% of guidance keeps it out of our area, with the eastern edge of Price and Iron Counties having the best chance (5-10%) of seeing more than 4". Model soundings continue to indicate that some eminently dry mid level air will exist on the north side of this system so there will likely be a fairly sharp snow cutoff on the north side.

We see only a brief lull with a passing weak upper level ridge midday Friday before the next chance of precipitation arrives late Friday evening into Saturday morning. A cut off upper level low pushing a clipper-like system along the border will likely be primarily responsible for the chance of light snow, with a Colorado Low system tracking to our south that could supply an extra push of moisture. Most deterministic guidance shows an initial north-south band of snow developing somewhere over NE MN between 03-09Z Saturday along a gradient of steep mid level lapse rates and a zone of negative omega along the leading edge of a 500mb vort max and supporting jet exit region. This band of light snow should push eastward through the day Saturday, getting some a boost of synoptic moisture and support by the more southern low pressure system. As temperatures cool on the backside of the precipitation and winds turn to become northwesterly, a lake enhanced boost of snow could be possible for the South Shore Saturday evening into Sunday morning. We are largely expecting a dusting to a couple inches from this system, highest along the South Shore. Depending on the timing/strength of that initial meridional band, there are some suggestions from recent model runs that a locally higher area of 2- 5" snow could fall somewhere in NE MN, but placement of that is anywhere from Brainerd to Grand Portage amongst global ensemble members, and non-existant in some solutions. CAA on the backside of both the Thursday and Saturday systems should bring slightly closer to normal temperatures with highs in the 20s.

Into next week, guidance is in decent agreement for another warm up Monday, with the potential for some areas to see high temperatures over 32F again. Some clippers could bring chances for additional light precipitation through next week. However, following that most signals point to steadily decreasing temperatures through mid to late January with a continued marginally active pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

IFR to LIFR fog is expected to continue across the region early this morning, impacting all terminals except INL. HYR, HIB, DLH, and BRD should see fog burn off and VFR conditions return by midday. A scattered to broken MVFR to IFR ceiling may affect INL and HIB through the day. Areas of rain and snow move into NW WI and begin to impact HYR by this evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 358 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Fairly benign and mostly calm conditions continue over Lake Superior today. Areas of dense fog are possible through this morning. Some north winds with gusts of 20-30 knots are possible near Grand Portage Thursday/Friday and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. With passing systems Thursday- Saturday, some elevated winds are possible, particularly the northeast to northwest winds on Saturday which could reach gale criteria along portions of the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for MNZ012- 019>021-025-026-033>038. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for WIZ001>004- 006>009. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for LSZ121- 144>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday for LSZ140. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for LSZ142.