textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain exits the Northland this morning. Expect much cooler high temperatures today in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

- Light lake effect snow will be possible this evening into tonight in the snowbelts of north-central WI. Accumulations are expected to be minimal and most likely to occur on grassy and elevated surfaces.

- A drier pattern settles over the region on Friday into next week with little to no chances for rain. Temperatures will be trending above-normal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The wet pattern that the Northland has been experiencing for the past few days is expected to come to an end today as low pressure propagates downstream. Latest sfc analysis places a low pressure center over central Lake Superior. A trowal associated with this vertically-stacked low is currently over portions of the CWA, resulting in a broad area of rain along the North Shore and in northwest Wisconsin. A 500mb shortwave trough is expected to dive south-southeast from far northern Ontario into the Upper Great Lakes region this morning into the afternoon, which will cause this low pressure to finally propagate downstream. Expect rain to exit the CWA by this afternoon.

In addition to propagating the low pressure downstream, this arriving shortwave trough will be bringing a colder airmass into the region. 850mb temps by this evening over western Lake Superior are forecast to be around -6 to -7 degC. When combined with steep lapse rates in excess of 8 degC/km below 800mb, lake sfc temps around 9 degC, and north-northeast winds, lake effect snow is forecast in the snowbelts of north-central WI this evening into tonight. The RRFS and REFS indicate the potential for up to 1" of accumulation, although amounts will likely be minimal due to temps remaining above freezing through the daytime hours today. Any light snow accumulation will most likely be on grassy and elevated surfaces, quickly melting tomorrow as high temps warm into the 40s.

In sharp contrast to the wet weather we've been seeing, a much drier pattern is expected to settle over the CWA starting on Friday and persist through at least early next week. Global models largely keep the storm track north of the International Border, although a shortwave is anticipated to move through the region on Saturday. Moisture associated with this Clipper-track shortwave is progged to be fairly minimal, with the main impact being increased cloud cover on Saturday as a dry front sweeps through. Temperatures on Friday through the remainder of the forecast period will generally be above- normal. For context, normal high temps for this time of year are around the upper 30s to low 40s with overnight lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Rain is exiting to the east this morning as low pressure departs, bringing an end to the wet pattern that has been persistent over the past few days. MVFR stratus is expected to linger through much of the daytime hours today. Improvement to VFR is likely to occur from northwest to southeast late this evening through tonight as high pressure builds and drier air moves in. Expect north-northeast winds to be breezy today, especially this morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

An upper level disturbance, which will be moving the low pressure that has brought recent widespread rainfall to the east, will also be bringing increased northerly winds today through tonight. In the forecast update this morning, Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to cover all of western Lake Superior, remaining in effect the longest through tonight from Port Wing to Saxon Harbor and around the Apostle Islands due to lingering elevated waves. A Gale Warning remains in effect today between Grand Marais and Grand Portage, where the pressure gradient will be strongest.

Expect winds and waves to ease by Friday morning as high pressure builds, resulting in winds becoming light and variable on Friday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The wet pattern that has been occurring over the area will be coming to an end today as low pressure exits to the east this morning. Lingering rain showers are expected this morning over northwest Wisconsin, coming to an end by the afternoon for most. Expect strong northerly winds today, especially this morning, gusting 20-35 mph. As colder air arrives this evening, light lake effect snow is expected to develop in the snowbelts of north-central WI and continue until early Friday morning. Any accumulations will likely be minimal on grassy and elevated surfaces.

A drier settles over the region starting on Friday in terms of precipitation, with temperatures trending above-normal. Min RH will be trending drier than what has been seen the past few days, but values below 35% are currently not expected.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 141>145. Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for LSZ146>148-150.