textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Another clipper system will bring some light snow mainly along the Canadian Border and Arrowhead this afternoon and evening.

- Light mixed precipitation is likely Monday night through Tuesday night.

- Warm temperatures through Tuesday, then trending colder towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

There are plenty of low stratus out there this morning associated with departing cyclonic flow aloft. Drier air moving in briefly this morning should help scatter these low clouds out. However, don't expect skies in general to clear out too much, as another clipper system is set to arrive with higher clouds moving in midday into this afternoon. Light snow is expected to affect parts of northeast Minnesota, mainly north and east of the Iron Range, and grazing parts of northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. This will be a quick- mover, so accumulations should generally be limited to an inch or less. Temperatures in the saturated layer are generally expected to be above -10C, so that won't be very supportive for large dendrites and subsequent higher snowfall totals. While a localized amount approaching 2 inches can't be totally ruled out, it's looking unlikely (~5-10% chance).

Tonight, after the snow ends, there may be enough lingering low-level saturation for some fog and perhaps light freezing drizzle. I kept some low PoPs going mainly in the same places where the snow is expected through tonight. Confidence is lower that freezing drizzle will actually occur since there may not be a deep enough saturated layer once drier air moves in, but there's at least a slight chance (~15%).

Expect a mild Monday and Tuesday. Another clipper should bring light mixed precipitation later Monday night through Tuesday night. Precipitation through Tuesday morning will be essentially a mix of anything with low-level temperatures hovering around freezing. Tuesday is looking like a day where temperatures may be cooling through the day as a potent cold front passes through. Any morning mixed precipitation should transition over to light snow. Expect some blustery northwest winds with this as well. We will get PWATs into the 90th percentile of climatology as this clipper passes through, so despite its somewhat quick movement, a couple inches of snow may be possible for several places. We'll probably have a brief period of South Shore gravity-wave enhancement and then lake-effect in the usual South Shore snowbelts Tuesday night into Wednesday as well, so there's potential for a few inches of snow there.

There may be yet another system, potentially more potent and impactful, around Thursday/Friday with a reinforcing shot of cold air behind it to bring us into next weekend. We'll probably see temperatures falling down into the teens for highs and single digits below zero for lows.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to be prevalent through the morning, but they may be fairly quick to mix out when they do between 12z and 15z as dry air moves in. A period of VFR ceilings midday into afternoon is then expected, though there will be broken to overcast ceilings as another clipper passes across the Canadian border in the late afternoon to evening. Some snow is expected at INL and it may just graze HIB as well, though confidence isn't high enough to mention it in the TAF at this time. MVFR visibilities may occur at INL for a few hours during the afternoon. Following the clipper, more MVFR ceilings may move in. Expect some breezy southwest winds Sunday afternoon along with some LLWS possible at DLH/BRD/HYR into the early evening.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 236 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Winds are expected to briefly lessen below Small Craft Advisory criteria this morning for a few hours, but then strengthen again from the west to southwest this afternoon and evening. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisories currently in effect were extended into and through tonight. Expect lingering high wave heights especially around the Outer Apostle Islands this morning with a brief midday break before winds and waves strengthen again this afternoon and evening. Expect some light snow as a clipper system passes through this afternoon and evening as well. Winds and waves decrease a bit Monday night, then re-strengthen as another clipper and cold front pass through going into Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ121- 140>146. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ147-148-150.