textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight and morning fog and stratus over the next few days.

- A more active pattern arrives Friday and lasts into early next week. For Friday, moderate rain, rumbles of thunder, a wintry mix and a bit of snow are all possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Quiet and mild weather dominates the Northland for the next few days as high pressure remains the primary influence. Temperatures will stay well above normal through Thursday, with many locations across the area reaching the upper 40s and even the lower 50s. While this feels like an early spring, the warmth will be tempered slightly near Lake Superior on Thursday as winds turn to the northeast, pulling cooler air off the water and keeping lakeside temperatures in the 30s.

The warm temperatures over the area will create a daily freeze and thaw cycle. This moisture being added daily into the near- surface layer favors the development of fog and low stratus clouds during the late night and lasting into the early morning hours. Visibility may drop significantly at times, but these clouds should gradually erode each afternoon to reveal some sunshine. There is the best potential tonight for areas of dense fog in north-central Minnesota late evening to early tonight and then moving northeastward into the Arrowhead later tonight into tomorrow morning. Will have to keep an eye out for possible Special Weather Statement or even Dense Fog Advisory headline needs for those zones tonight.

The weather turns much more active on Friday as a strong low pressure system moves into the region. Rain is expected to spread across the Northland starting Friday morning, with the most significant totals focused over northwest Wisconsin and eastern Minnesota. We are even monitoring the potential for rumbles of thunder Friday, particularly south of the Iron Range Friday evening. This system is likely to produce some moderate rainfall (around 1/4 to 3/4 inches) in some southern parts of the Northland as it taps both Pacific and Gulf moisture. The precipitable water values range from 0.65 to 0.9 inches in global ensemble guidance which is well-above normal for this time of year.

As colder air filters in behind the system on Friday night, the rain will likely mix with or change over to light snow before ending. At least a light bit of snowfall is likely for much of north-central and parts of northeast Minnesota late Friday. There is a 75% chance of at least few tenths of an inch of snowfall in north-central Minnesota late Friday night. The probabilities for higher amounts closer to a few inches quickly drop off though down to only 25% for the Brainerd Lakes to US Hwy 53 corridor in northern Minnesota.

A weaker clipper looks to drop into the region from the northwest this weekend and brings a 30-40% chance of precipitation with it. Ensemble guidance right now progs the weekend clipper to still begin precipitating within a warmer airmass to mainly support a rain/snow mix or more likely mostly rain into Sunday daytime before higher snowfall chances build into early next Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 551 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Temperatures rose above freezing across the Northland today which pushed dewpoints into the middle and upper 30s. Clear skies over the terminals except for INL should allow for efficient radiational cooling. Fog is expected to develop tonight with a potential for IFR or LIFR visibility. There is also a chance low stratus will develop which may interfere with visibility reductions. In either case, look for lower flight categories tonight through Wednesday morning. Similar to the conditions today, the fog and stratus should gradually mix out between 04.16Z and 04.20Z for most locations. Fog and low stratus are likely to redevelop again tomorrow night.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Expect quiet conditions through Wednesday night with waves under 1 foot. Northeast winds increase Thursday to 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots, which will likely create hazardous conditions for small craft along the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.