textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Current band of snowfall stretching from the South Shore to Brainerd Lakes is bringing a dusting to 2 inches of snow, and should be exiting the area soon after sunrise.

- The next round of snow arrives tonight into Wednesday bringing more accumulations to the I-35 corridor, Twin Ports, North Shore, and east across NW WI. Another 2-5"+ is possible, and Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for portions of NW Wisconsin.

- A strong clipper system arrives Thursday afternoon into Friday and could bring a quick punch of snow from northwest to southeast across the Northland, with some locally higher amounts due to lake enhancement along the North Shore.

- A diurnal freeze/thaw will likely occur through late week and then much of the area may fall below freezing for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

CURRENTLY: Weak ripples in zonal flow aloft and mid level frontogenesis are sustaining a light to moderate snow band stretching along the South Shore westward through the Brainerd Lakes region. This band will continue to slowly shift southward this morning. A quick 1-3" is possible under the heavier parts of the snow band. Current winds are generally out of the north to north northeast, blowing onto the South Shore, which could result in some enhancement over the next couple hours across Douglas, Bayfield, and Ashland counties. This band should be south and east of the area by 7-8AM. However, low stratus will likely linger through the day, and cannot rule out some light flurries or drizzle. With northeasterly winds off the lake into the Twin Ports, could see light snow linger through mid morning for locations at the head of the lake.

THIS AFTERNOON-WEDNESDAY: A upper level trough will amplify to our west today and push across the Plains. In response, a weak surface low will strengthen and push across northern IL. On the north side of this system, a second band of snow will push back into northwest WI this afternoon, with additional snowfall spreading into locations south of US-2 tonight. Highest snowfall amounts (2-5inches) remain over parts of NW Wisconsin, from Ashland and Sawyer counties eastward. A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for these counties from this afternoon through midday Wednesday. Lighter accumulations are expected up to US-2 and along portions of the North Shore up to Tofte. With persistent northeast winds, there could be enhanced snowfall along the North Shore and over the Twin Ports, which could lead to higher accumulations than currently expected. This system pulls away from the area Wednesday afternoon, leading to about 24 hours of quiet conditions across the Northland.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Most global models are in agreement that a powerful clipper will move into the Midwest/Great Lakes region. Latest model runs have trended toward a solution that brings this system across the Dakotas and into northwest/central WI, leaving most of the Northland on the north/northeast side of the low. This would enhance snowfall on the North Shore due to strong southeasterly winds on the north side of the strengthening surface low. Current forecast calls for widespread 1-3 inches areawide, 3-6 inches over the Arrowhead and the Snowbelt of NW WI, and 6+ inches along portions of the North Shore. If forecast trends continue, Winter Weather Advisories and a Winter Storm Warning along the North Shore will be needed.

WEEKEND: There is the potential for a strong Colorado low system to be moving through the plains and into the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. Latest guidance has diverged in the track of this low and where it strengthens as it pushes across the Mississippi River Valley. Implications of a track change would be a change from snow to a wintry mix to possibly no precipitation at all. If a more northern track occurs, portions of MN/WI could be in the occluded quadrant, with heavy accumulating snow and strong winds possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A band of snowfall stretches across northwest WI this morning, with light snowfall falling at HYR to start the forecast period. Expect reductions in vis to 1-2SM within this band.

Elsewhere, MVFR cigs persist at DLH, with VFR cigs are other forecast terminals. With strong onshore northeast to east winds, with some gusts to 24kts, expect MVFR cigs to remain at DLH through the day, potentially falling below 1kft this afternoon. This onshore flow might also result in snow showers near DLH this afternoon, but current chances are too low to include.

For other terminals, winds will be from the east to northeast at 5-10kts.

This evening, another round of snow will move into northwest WI, and will bring snow back into HYR.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Northeast winds build through the day with some gusts near 25 knots possible for the head of the lake and Apostle Islands. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Winds remain northeast through Wednesday but should taper in strength. Fairly calm conditions expected Thursday before a round of stronger easterly winds pick up Thursday night into Friday. Small Craft Advisories are likely for Friday and Gale Warnings may be needed.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ002>004-008-009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ143>148-150.