textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for light showers and sprinkles increase this afternoon into the evening.

- Freeze Warning likely needed across most the region for tonight.

- Cool temps through midweek with a warming trend into the weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Early this morning, widespread stratus clouds and lingering showers are moving through the Northland in the wake of last nights low pressure system. As the morning progresses, cold air advection on the back side of the departing system will move into the area. This cool air will lead to steepening lapse rates and the potential for afternoon showers. However, because there is an abundance of low level dry air in place, most of the falling rain will evaporate before reaching the ground. As a result, mostly sprinkles are expected across the majority of the Northland today. The exception will be up toward the Borderlands, where slightly better lower level moisture will allow for some actual traces of rain to reach the surface.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Widespread stratus has engulfed most the region in the wake of last nights showers and isolated storms. We are also seeing some areas of fog from the Brainerd Lakes Region and extending northeast through the Twin Ports and up the shore. This layer of stable air will keep temperatures cool with highs staying in the 50s under this cloud deck. Satellite is showing a few pockets of clearing over SE MN and western WI where temperatures will rebound back into the 70s helping to reload instability for this evenings convective potential. However, up in our portion of NW WI there are few breaks in the clouds with low clouds still filtering in from the west, so recovery seems limited.

A baroclinic zone will still be draped across the Upper Midwest this afternoon with a surface low pressure centered over SE MN. Through the evening and overnight hours several low pressure systems will ride along this boundary boosting lift and helping to fuel shower and storm development. However, satellite trends through the morning hours have not been favorable for instability recovery and our temperatures across the region remain quite cool when compared to our neighbors to the south. The main threat for severe weather will be well off to our south. As such the SPC has pulled the severe risk down to just our SE corner with a marginal risk. Some strong storms can't be ruled out at this time with some damaging winds and hail at times, but the tornado chances are no longer a concern.

Showers are expected to become more widespread later this evening. The two focal points for this activity is the low pressure moving along the stalled boundary and an upper level trough pivoting across the Upper Midwest. Targeted timing for rain entering from the southwest is after 9PM with activity departing to the northeast after 8AM. With the reduced risk for thunderstorms our overall rain totals have come down a bit with most the region seeing between 0.10-0.25" Areas that do see thunderstorms will have locally higher amounts, but the overall risk for flooding has diminished.

Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday:

Northwest flow and surface high pressure builds in from the west on Tuesday. Cyclonic flow aloft paired with remnant moisture will lead to diurnally driven cumulus and isolated sprinkles across northern MN. Temperatures will be on the cool side for Tuesday with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight, the high pressure moves over MN with clear skies leading to rapid radiational cooling. Widespread Freeze Warnings will likely be needed across the region. Conditions dry out a bit more on Wednesday with high temps rebounding back into the 50s and 60s. Winds will be light so fire weather concerns are low at this time. By Thursday high pressure departs to the east and we will get southerly return flow streaming back into the region. High temps will continue to climb back into the upper 60s with cooler conditions expected by Lake Superior.

Friday-Weekend:

An upper level trough is still expected to move across the Northern Plains to end the work week bringing rain chances back to the Northland. Timing of this has been slowed down when compared to previous model runs with 20-30% PoPs now entering Friday afternoon. This will also prompt the return of southwest flow aloft leading to a warming trend. Weekend temperatures in the 70s and some 80s possible with cooler by the Lake still in play.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

IFR ceilings will stick around most of the morning accompanied by drizzle and fog briefly dropping visibilities to IFR as well. Conditions are expected to slowly improve throughout the day. Cold air from the northwest will lead to some scattered light rain showers this afternoon. However, air near the surface will be dry, causing most, or all, rain to evaporate before reaching the ground. INL is the only terminal that could drop to MVFR from rain showers due to higher moisture near the surface. Winds out of the northwest will increase for the afternoon as well.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the nearshore waters of western Lake Superior today. Northwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots expected across most zones through the afternoon. A few lingering showers are possible early this morning before diminishing. Wave heights will generally range from 2 to 4 feet today, occasionally reaching up to 7 feet in the outer Apostle Islands, before subsiding to 1 to 3 feet by late afternoon and evening. Winds become lighter on Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Cloudy conditions and scattered showers continue early this morning, keeping minimum relative humidity values high today. As cold air moves in today, we will see gusty northwest winds and afternoon sprinkles. Wednesday brings a dry day with light winds as high pressure moves in. Critical fire weather concerns increase for Thursday, which features the greatest chance for low relative humidity dropping to 25 percent along with gusty southerly winds up to 20 mph.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140>147. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ148- 150.