textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain showers continue into this evening and overnight, the most over northwest Wisconsin.

- Mild and dry conditions to follow rain on Friday. Near critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday.

- Next low chance for precipitation not until late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

This afternoon, rain showers will continue to spread across the Northland as a surface low cuts across Wisconsin into the Great Lakes. This main band of rain currently moving through far northeastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin will continue to move east throughout this evening and overnight, with the heaviest rainfall falling across northwest Wisconsin. Models are still having trouble with a cold bias overnight, so brought up minimum temperatures for tonight due to cloud cover, as done in previous forecasts.

Wrap around showers will develop and more off-and-on rain showers are expected across much of the area in the late night and early morning Friday. Lake enhanced/effect rain showers will continue through most of Friday morning across portions of the South Shore as cold air moves over the relatively warm waters of Lake Superior. A few snowflakes could mix in across far northern Minnesota during the overnight hours, but no accumulations and no impacts are expected. Strong north winds will surge behind the departing boundary, gusting between 25 and 35 mph inland and up to 45 mph near Lake Superior, before conditions subside and skies clear late Friday afternoon.

High pressure will build across the Upper Midwest Friday night into Saturday, bringing a return of sunny skies and dry air. RHs increased significantly Saturday with the initial population of forecast data, so decreased them again to better account for dry air aloft that will likely mix down to the surface that day. No fire headlines are anticipated at this time, but fire weather conditions will still be near critical with the combined lower RH of 25 to 30 percent and gusty southwest winds of 20-30 mph expected that day. Under this system, temperatures will increase back toward sixty degrees through the weekend into next week.

On Sunday, an upper-level shortwave will pass north of the international border, dragging a mostly dry cold front through our region with only scattered passing clouds. Winds will follow as this system passes with gusts 20-30 mph in northwest Wisconsin. RH values between 30 and 40% will lead to elevated fire weather conditions with higher winds, but not anticipating any fire headlines needed. Behind this boundary, upper-level ridging will become the dominant pattern driver across the Great Lakes. This synoptic regime will maintain dry, mostly clear, and unseasonably mild weather across our area through Monday, with afternoon temperatures warming well into the sixties.

Dry and quiet weather will persist into Tuesday as the upper ridge remains centered over the region, keeping temperatures mild. By Wednesday, a weak passing upper disturbance will bring an increase in cloud cover along with a slight chance of afternoon rain showers. However, any precipitation will be light and widely scattered, with dry conditions still favored overall at this point.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

First wave of light rain is still impacting the Twin ports and encompasses all of NW WI. Ceilings are fluctuating between MVFR/IFR. Later this evening another round of showers enters from the northwest and will dive southeast exiting tomorrow morning. This round of showers will bring a robust north wind with a strong pressure gradient setting up. For now we have kept the gusty wind for after day break and bumped up the sustained winds for the predawn hours. However, this may need to be adjusted with wind speeds in excess of 30kts not far off the surface. Cloud cover will decrease through tomorrow with a return to VFR conditions. Wind speeds will also be decreasing through the day.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A low pressure system tracking into the Great Lakes will bring hazardous marine conditions to western Lake Superior. A Gale Warning is in effect from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for all nearshore zones and the outer Apostle Islands. North winds of 20 to 30 kt with gales to 40 to 45 kt will drive waves to 6 to 9 ft along the South Shore, 8 to 11 ft across the outer Apostle Islands with occasional waves to 14 ft, and 3 to 6 ft on the North Shore. Winds and waves will subside Friday afternoon and evening as high pressure approaches. Southwest winds will ramp up again on Saturday with gusts to 25 to 30 kt. Gales are possible as well in areas of the near shore waters, and will be more narrowed down in the next couple days.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Widespread rainfall across the Northland continues through this evening and tonight. Strong north winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph will arrive Friday morning, but lingering moisture from the exiting system will keep relative humidity values above 35%. On Saturday, high pressure will lead to dry air aloft which will mix down to the surface. Minimum relative humidity will drop to between 25 and 30 percent Saturday afternoon with southwest winds gusting to 20 to 30 mph, producing near critical fire weather conditions. These windy conditions will linger into Sunday, but RH will increase as well so there will be less concern for fire weather. Going into the rest of the weekend and next week, mild and generally dry weather will persist, keeping humidity somewhat lower with lighter winds until low shower chances return on Wednesday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM CDT Friday for LSZ121-140>148- 150.