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KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory now in effect from the Brainerd Lakes to northwest Wisconsin for this afternoon and early evening.

- Additional showers and storms are expected through the end of the week. Isolated strong storms are possible late this afternoon through early Saturday morning. More storms are possible at times this weekend and into next week.

- Warm to hot weather will persist for the foreseeable future for inland areas. A lake breeze will temporarily create cooler temperatures in the 60s to 70s Independence Day near Lake Superior.

- For Independence Day, dangerous swim conditions are possible for Lake Superior beaches in the Twin Ports. Gusty easterly winds in the Twin Ports Saturday may also create conditions hazardous to small craft as well.

UPDATE

Issued at 551 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Issued a Heat Advisory for portions of central Minnesota to northwest Wisconsin this afternoon into early evening. NWS Heat Risk (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk) forecast to reach a level 2 of 4 risk or "Moderate" and forecast WBGT values will be higher than 79 degrees during that time.

Remainder of the forecast appears to be on track.

UPDATE

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

The overall storm threat for tonight has continued to trend further south and east with just isolated general thunderstorms forecast, if anything, into Price County still over the next few hours. After these chances of general storms decrease towards first light early Thursday morning, dry conditions are expected into the mid-afternoon hours Thursday. By Thursday late afternoon, scattered diurnal rain showers and isolated thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out (20-30% chance) along and south of US Hwy 2. Model guidance provides indications that a complex of strong thunderstorms over the Dakotas could (only a 40% chance of this occurring) into western MN Thursday afternoon. If this complex were to make it into the north- central MN region, it would be most likely for late afternoon first in the Brained Lakes region. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather remains from the Storm Prediction Center for this area and into northwest Wisconsin covering this mainly late Thursday afternoon to early overnight risk of strong thunderstorms. If a strong thunderstorm were to become severe (only a 5-10% chance) strong damaging winds to 60 mph would be the primary hazard and a secondary hazard of large hail around 1 inch in diameter.

While maybe not as notable as the very hazy skies today, another push of smoke that remains aloft is forecast Thursday afternoon and evening. Even under any sunny skies, these conditions could again create another round of hazy skies tomorrow PM. The sky cover forecast with this forecast was increased from the base blend guidance to account for this expectedly hazy sky cover.

INDEPENDENCE DAY BEACH AND WATER HAZARDS POTENTIAL: An increase in easterly winds Friday night into Saturday morning creates concerns for increasing rip current action and building wave heights into the southwestern arm of Lake Superior Saturday. The increased rip current action could then create dangerous swim conditions on Lake Superior beaches in the Twin Ports Saturday. A Beach Hazards Statement may be needed in time. Those gusty easterly winds, gusts forecast to 25 mph, and wave heights of 2 to 3 feet may also create conditions hazardous to small craft for those using watercraft on nearshore waters close to the Twin Ports Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in time as well for Twin Ports nearshore waters. Of note, this same easterly wind would also create a well-below normal temperature setup Saturday where high temperatures are forecast for the mid-60s to around 70 F for beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Current weather through tonight: We have plenty of clouds across the region early this afternoon. Remnants of some showers and storms across northwest Wisconsin associated with a quasi-stationary warm front have largely dissipated, and this is the area that has now seen a bit of clearing. Further northwest, several weak waves of vorticity spinning around the southeast side of an upper-level low, possibly combined with a bit of mid-level frontogenesis, is triggering some banded areas of showers in northeast Minnesota. These could stick around through the afternoon, and there could be some pop-up thunderstorms as well, but nothing severe is expected.

For this afternoon and evening, the best chance for any strong to severe storms will be in northwest Wisconsin, especially in Price county. After this morning's rain, it appears that we are likely to see just a glancing blow at thunderstorms as our environment has been worked over a bit from this morning's rain. Not too much movement of the front is expected either, so this afternoon's convection is most likely to develop in the vicinity of that over southeast Minnesota into west-central Wisconsin. There is a little wiggle room, however, and if storms did end up a bit further north at initiation, we could see more storms impacting a slightly broader area of northwest Wisconsin. This scenario certainly can't be ruled out with some of the clearing going on right now.

To the north of the front, model soundings don't look especially promising for low-level veering that would be supportive for tornadoes. It can't be totally ruled out, but that's not likely to be the main hazard. Instead, the potential for MUCAPE (1-2.5 kJ/kg) could result in a large hail threat (to ping-pong ball size or so) initially for supercell development, and strong winds later if storms congeal into a line (60 mph or so, perhaps up to 70 mph in the event that storms track further north than currently forecast). Heavy rain could pose a very minor risk for flooding if there were any training storms, but again, this would be in the event that storms track further north. Storms will be most likely this evening right around sunset and lasting until midnight or shortly after. As has been the case with this weather pattern over the past several days, even right now there is some uncertainty on where exactly storms will go because the initial convection expected over Iowa/SE Minnesota/West-central Wisconsin has not developed yet. SPC has trimmed the northern extent of a previous enhanced risk for severe weather to exclude Price County. At this time, several NW Wisconsin counties have a slight (5-15% chance) risk for scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening and a marginal (<5% chance) risk further northeast.

Thursday through Saturday morning: Upper level flow is expected to become more westerly Thursday with low pressure passing by to the north and some slightly more stable air moving in briefly. Thursday is looking like it'll be largely a break from widespread thunderstorm activity, but we will still have a few chances out there. The more unstable air is looking to be broadly setup to our west and south, and it's there that SPC has outlined a marginal risk for some strong to severe storms for the afternoon/overnight. We will probably end up with some showers and storms moving into the region from the southwest in the evening and overnight hours, but that will depend on where they develop Thursday afternoon across the Dakotas. These will probably be our typical decaying MCS remnants and sub-severe, though again, a marginal risk for severe storms capable of some large hail or gusty winds can't be ruled out. Expect more warm/hot weather with highs in the 80s pretty much everywhere.

Another blossom of instability is expected Friday with a hot air mass in place, and this is largely expected south of our region but just clipping our southern and western areas. A weak upper-level wave could trigger thunderstorms, and perhaps an MCS, somewhere roughly in the Dakotas that could spread east Friday night. At this time, it's likely something like that would pass south of the Northland, but the exact track won't be known until the initial storms develop.

This Weekend: At this point, it's tricky to say when we might have storm chances, but our general hot weather pattern should persist. Any passing waves could result in a few showers/storms. Otherwise, generally warm to hot temperatures will persist, but nothing likely that should require any heat headlines.

Early next week: Largely rinse and repeat with a warm summertime pattern in place. We will have broad ridging in place with intermittent passing shortwaves that could result in thunderstorm chances. Expect highs in the 80s to be pretty common.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 110 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Areas of fog may develop tonight. Included reduced visibility at HIB, BRD, and HYR with this update. With light surface winds, visibility will be variable and fog may impact part of the field. Used BCFG to account for that potential. There is a 20% chance of IFR visibility at HIB and INL overnight and later updates will be needed if fog develops at those locations. A cold front will sag southward across the region today. Winds will be gusty this afternoon ahead of the front and will veer northwesterly behind the boundary. Shower and storm chances return to BRD around 03.00Z though the probability is less than 30%. Areas of fog may redevelop again after 03.06Z.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Gusty southwest winds Thursday are forecast offshore of Grand Portage and may create conditions hazardous to small craft. An Advisory has been issued for that nearshore zone Thursday late morning to late afternoon to cover this potentially hazardous time period for small craft between the mainland and Isle Royale. Otherwise a wind shift to easterly will occur Friday. Easterly winds around or under 15 knots Friday further increase in speed Saturday and may create hazardous conditions to small craft for the Twin Ports on Independence Day. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed in time for Saturday in the southwestern arm of Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

No fire weather conditions are expected as minimum relative humidity remains in the 40-50% range. West winds today gust to 20 mph for far northern Minnesota before a widespread wind shift to easterly occurs Friday. A strong lake breeze will occur Saturday and is likely to reach fairly far inland with fairly temperatures in the 60s along all shoreline locations. There will be periodic thunderstorm chances each day which can produce gusty and erratic wind gusts and cloud to ground lightning strikes.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ033-034-036-038. WI...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140.