textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog is possible tonight, with some spots with visibilities less than a mile.

- Isolated showers and storms possible Wednesday. If they manage to form, a few could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.

- Dry and comfortable weather for the late week before chances for widespread precipitation arrives late Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Pleasant conditions will prevail across the Northland for the rest of today, though elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead will maintain hazy skies. Weather conditions remain mostly quiet through the evening, but atmospheric moisture and light winds will allow patchy fog to develop after midnight. Fog will be concentrated mainly across portions of the Minnesota Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin, where some patches of dense fog with visibilities under one mile are possible during the early morning hours.

Early morning fog will slowly dissipate on Wednesday, giving way to partly sunny skies. Guidance shows potential for isolated thunderstorm development, particularly along Highway 2 and southward. Low level lapse rates will be high, but this layer is also shallow overall. This will lead to little instability overall for the storms to tap into. Lingering dry air will also prevent some precipitation from reaching the ground. Finally, high- resolution forecast models vary on convective coverage, but of storms that do materialize, a few could become strong to severe. The main threats with the strongest storms will be localized damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail up to one inch in diameter.

Any lingering convection will taper off early Thursday morning, giving way to high pressure building across the Upper Midwest. This surface ridge will deliver quiet weather once again along with drier air, resulting in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies across the region. These conditions will linger into Friday daytime under partly sunny skies.

Weather patterns will transition Friday night as an upper-level trough moves over the region, tapping into moisture drawn from the south. Cloud cover will steadily increase, setting the stage for widespread precipitation across the Northland. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will spread into the area late Friday night and continue through Saturday as dynamic low pressure moves directly across the region. Storms are not expected to be severe at this time.

Precipitation will taper off from west to east Saturday night as the storm system departs to the east. High pressure will build back into the Upper Midwest on Sunday, leading to decreasing cloud cover and a return to partly sunny skies. Dry and comfortable weather will persist across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin for the new work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds will last through most of the TAF period. Chances for fog return tonight for numerous terminals, with IFR and LIFR visibilities expected in the early morning hours. Smoke aloft will continue to create hazy skies.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light winds under 10 knots and waves 1 foot or less will persist across the nearshore waters of Western Lake Superior through the next 72 hours. Elevated wildfire smoke will produce a hazy appearance to the sky today. Patchy fog may briefly reduce visibilities late tonight into Wednesday morning. No marine headlines or hazardous winds and waves are expected through Thursday, but may return Friday with chances for showers and storms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light and variable winds under 10 mph will continue today and Wednesday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping to around 40 percent this afternoon under hazy skies. Overnight relative humidity recoveries will remain excellent across the entire region as lows reach down into the 50s. Low chances for showers and storms on Wednesday afternoon/night , As high pressure builds late this week, minimum relative humidity values will decrease to between 35 and 40 percent on Thursday and Friday afternoons. The next widespread wetting rain chance arrives Friday night into Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.