textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry tonight with lows in the 50s and 60s.

- Very warm and humid tomorrow along with dry conditions. A Heat Advisory has been issued.

- Continued warm and humid Thursday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some strong to severe storms possible in western areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure was in place across the Northland early this afternoon. An area of low pressure was located over southwestern Manitoba with a cold front trailing back into far northern Montana. Some low stratus was lingering across the Northland underneath the high, mainly across the Brainerd Lakes area to the Iron Range and areas west of the I-35 corridor. There is a narrow window for an isolated shower or storm this afternoon into early evening, but the smoke aloft may act to keep anything from developing. Overall chances are around 20% or less for any rainfall today, mainly across northeastern Minnesota. Any storm that does develop may briefly be strong with plenty of instability to work with, but is not expected to last long with limited shear in place. Dry conditions then prevail for tonight with lows falling into the 50s and 60s, coolest near Lake Superior.

Another warm and humid day is on tap for Wednesday. Highs will reach into the 80s and lower 90s with dewpoints in the 60s leading to muggy conditions. With widespread Moderate HeatRisk conditions across the region for Wednesday along with WBGTs above 79F from late morning through late afternoon, have issued a Heat Advisory for much of the Northland. There will again be a low chance (<20%) for an isolated shower or thunderstorm across most of the region tomorrow afternoon into early evening. We'll again see plenty of instability, but lingering smoke aloft and limited shear will limit this threat. We may also remained too capped for any storms to occur with no trigger mechanism in place and convective temperatures in the middle to upper 90s. Some showers and storms may move in Wednesday night from the Northern Plains, but confidence on this is currently low.

Temperatures remain warm and quite muggy for Thursday, but there will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the afternoon hours as the upper ridge starts to shift east and bring a shortwave through the Upper Midwest. Strong to severe storms will be possible and shear looks a little better ahead of the front Thursday afternoon into early evening with 30 to 40 knots of effective shear. We are currently outlooked for a Marginal Risk by the SPC and this seems appropriate at this time. While humidity will increase Thursday, temperatures will be slightly cooler. Another round of heat headlines may be needed.

Rainfall chances will then linger into Friday before drying out for the weekend. The jet stream will then shift north of the border for the weekend and into next week, keeping the main storm track to our north. There will be limited chances for precipitation, but nothing significant at this point. Temperatures cool into the 70s and low 80s for Friday and Saturday before slowly warming heading into the new week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the terminals early this afternoon except for HIB where lingering low stratus remains. This is expected to lift in the next few hours with VFR conditions into tonight. Some fog and low stratus is expected to redevelop late tonight at HIB, DLH, and HYR with LIFR conditions at HIB and MVFR conditions at DLH and HYR. Fog is expected to lift quicker Wednesday morning than it did this morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Winds will remain light and variable under 10 knots over the next 48 hours. Winds may be more easterly Wednesday afternoon, but variable for the most part. Dense fog will remain possible this afternoon and tonight. Improving visibility has been seen so far, but models indicate fog filling back in later this afternoon. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Thursday as winds become southwesterly at 6 to 12 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

High pressure will remain in place across the region for the remainder of today and tomorrow. Afternoon highs both days will be in the 80s and lower 90s with cooler temperatures near Lake Superior. Afternoon RH values will generally remain above 40%, but some values in the 30 to 40% range will be possible tomorrow afternoon in the Brainerd Lakes area. Light and variable winds will persist for this afternoon and tonight with light southwesterly winds tomorrow at 4 to 8 mph. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out each afternoon, but most locations will remain dry. Better chances for showers and thunderstorms will arrive for Thursday and Thursday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ010>012- 018-019-025-026-033>038. WI...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for WIZ001>003- 006>008. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 140>148-150.