textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry for most this afternoon with isolated showers and non- severe storms possible in the Arrowhead and northern Wisconsin.

- Temperatures warm above normal through the weekend and into next week with hot and humid conditions expected. Heat headlines may be needed.

- Multiple chances for showers and storms begin Sunday and continue into mid next week. Severe storms will be possible, especially on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure was located over southwestern Manitoba early this afternoon and extended across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The area of low pressure that brought rainfall to the region the past two days is currently located over northern lower Michigan. Cyclonic flow around this low may lead to a few isolated showers and an embedded rumble of thunder this afternoon across Iron and Price counties while a potential lake breeze along the North Shore may lead to isolated activity across the Arrowhead. This activity will be nowhere near as widespread as the last two days with most locations remaining dry. Highs this afternoon will reach into the 60s and 70s with light and variable winds.

The area of high pressure shifts over Lake Superior tomorrow with southerly return flow setting up across the Upper Midwest. This will start to advect warmer and more moist area northward with highs reaching into the 70s. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across western areas during the afternoon as a weak shortwave runs into the high.

An upper ridge moves into the Upper Midwest for Saturday with southerly flow persisting. This will bring highs Saturday in the 70s and lower 80s with upper 60s along the North Shore. As the ridge axis shifts overhead on Sunday, a surface warm front will lift through the Northland bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger storms along the front cannot be ruled out at this time. Temperatures continue to warm with highs in the middle 70s to middle 80s along with 60s along the North Shore. Dewpoints in the 60s will start to move into western and southern areas, bringing a start to a muggy period.

Monday looks to be the most interesting day of forecast period. Low pressure across the Plains will move northeastward in association with a mid-level jet streak on the western edge of the ridge shifting into the western Great Lakes. Instability is expected to build ahead of this low pressure system and associated cold front through the day with highs reaching into the 80s and lower 90s. Our forecast is on the high end of guidance due to a warm bias in some of the models, so highs may trend a few degrees cooler. However, with readings still in the 80s and lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s and potentially 70s, hot and very muggy conditions are expected and heat headlines may be needed. In regards to storms Monday, they will be possible across much of northern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. However, forecast soundings show a stout cap in place across the region. Should that cap break, all modes of severe weather will be possible and the SPC has introduced a 15% risk area across most of the Duluth CWA for this period. The threat for showers and storms will continue into mid-week with continued hot and humid conditions. Heavy rainfall will also be possible during this time with PWATs reaching above the 90th percentile for late June.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions prevail across northeastern Minnesota early this afternoon with MVFR ceilings across northwestern Wisconsin. Slowly improving conditions are expected at HYR this afternoon with VFR conditions returning by 00z. VFR conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the period. Winds will remain light and variable under 10 knots. There are chances for fog and low stratus developing tonight at HIB, HYR, and DLH. Confidence was highest at HIB, so added MVFR visibilities there. Lower confidence at DLH and HYR, especially when they didn't really fog up this morning with better conditions in place.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure will keep winds around 10 knots or less for this afternoon and tonight. As the high moves east tomorrow, winds will become easterly at 5 to 15 knots, strongest at the head of the lake. Easterly winds will continue into the weekend and get stronger each day. Gusts to around 25 knots will be possible Sunday and may lead to conditions hazardous to small craft. A warm front will lift across western Lake Superior Sunday into Sunday night and bring chances for showers and thunderstorms.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure over Lake Superior will keep most locations dry on Friday, although some showers may creep into far western areas along the periphery. Southerly flow on the back side of the high will bring warmer temperatures and more humid air into the region. Most of the Northland will remain above 40% for afternoon RH values, but areas north of the Iron Range into the Arrowhead may fall into the 30-40% range with moisture taking longer to reach those areas. Winds will remain under 15 mph. Temperatures will warm through the weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms returning Saturday night into Sunday as a warm front lifts northward. RH values will be above 35% on Saturday and above 50% on Sunday. Winds may gust as high as 20-25 mph this weekend. Very warm and humid conditions are expected heading in to next week with multiple chances for showers and storms. Strong to severe storms look possible on Monday into Monday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.