textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong low pressure system will bring heavy snow, gusty winds, and some blizzard conditions to parts of the Northland late this afternoon into Sunday night with some lingering snow into Monday.

- This will be an exceptionally rare and impactful storm for parts of interior northwest Wisconsin where snow totals around two feet and blizzard conditions at times are expected.

- Cold temperatures Monday morning with wind chills of -20F.

- Warmer temperatures on Wednesday and through the end of the work week with off and on precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current Conditions and Tonight's Weather: Mostly sunny skies are found across the region, except to our south where higher clouds are starting to stream in from the west associated with the incoming snowstorm. The main fgen snow band is expected to expand into the region from southwest to northeast tonight.

The Storm - Changes to the Setup: There have generally been minimal changes to this forecast; just minor tweaks to snowfall amounts and winds here and there. There are still some things in question, though. The exact location of the heaviest of the heavy snow from the deformation band is not completely certain, but will be most likely to hit Price County and those surrounding it the hardest with 2-3"/hr rates come Sunday morning. Low pressure is still expected to take a northeasterly deviation from its otherwise nearly due easterly path on Sunday as the upper level trough causing it to deepen becomes negatively tilted somewhere over the Quad Cities of IA/IL Sunday evening. As such, the deformation band will orient from West-to-East to Southwest-to-Northeast, leading to prolonged heavy snowfall over northern Wisconsin. There will be a fairly sharp cutoff to snowfall amounts to the north, but probably not as tight as previous storms that approach this magnitude since we won't have a high pressure center to our north funneling in very dry air.

The Storm - Changes to Expected Conditions: There are some forecast caveats for the northern extent of this storm. In the Twin Ports and northern Douglas County, we will have east to northeast winds for much of Sunday before they turn north to northwest as the low moves off Sunday afternoon/evening. CAMs continue to hint at a convergence band of snow streaming in off Lake Superior and affecting parts of the North Shore from Silver Bay and south into the Twin Ports and Douglas County. We will also have the potential for some lingering gravity wave snow over the usual places in Douglas/Bayfield counties into Sunday night as winds turn northwesterly and we hang on to some residual moisture and snow showers. The convergence band that should affect the Twin Ports should be fairly transient, so enhancement from this should be noticeable, but not extreme. Overall, we might see some snowfall rates to around an inch per hour at times, but not for the entire storm. We will therefore hang on to the Winter Storm Warning since snowfall rates are generally not expected to be extreme.

Elsewhere into northwest Wisconsin, we have decided to upgrade Winter Storm Warnings to Blizzard Warnings. This is exceptionally rare for interior northwest Wisconsin. For historical context, Burnett and Washburn counties have never been warned for blizzard conditions and Sawyer and Price counties have only been warned once for blizzard conditions in the past ~20 years. What triggered the upgrade is the expected combination of very heavy snowfall rates that may meet or exceed 2-3" per hour at times Sunday morning combined with widespread wind gusts in the 30-40 mph range. There is some uncertainty on where exactly the heaviest of those snowfall rates will be, but most likely this will land in Price County and into Sawyer/southern Ashland/Iron counties. This may extend west into Price county. There is expected to be a little displacement in the heaviest snow and winds such that the heaviest snowfall rates are expected later tonight into Sunday morning, then as winds switch to more northerly, wind speeds will pick up and lead to plenty of blowing snow as the snowfall rates start to taper off. With that said, there should be several hours where blizzard conditions will be met for many places that have been upgraded. Some places may not see true blizzard conditions or just see them briefly, but we expect conditions to be close enough for most folks to refer to this storm as a blizzard. While snowfall rates are generally not expected to be as intense in Bayfield/Douglas counties for most of this storm, lingering gravity wave and convergence snow banding would correspond better with the strong winds midday Sunday into the afternoon there, so blizzard conditions are quite possible.

Total snowfall amounts from this storm are expected to be very high, with totals around two feet in Price County and surrounding areas. It's definitely possible that some higher amounts could be observed approaching 30 inches.

No major changes have been made for the forecast for the rest of Minnesota. Headlines will remain as they were from the last update.

Late Sunday night into Monday - Wrapping up the Storm: Wraparound snow and some lake-enhancement along the South Shore are expected to persist through Monday morning. Northwest winds will still be gusty, but should start to lessen gradually through the day. A few inches of additional snow accumulation are expected especially Monday morning before it wraps up going into the afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday through Friday: Expect some cold northwesterly flow for this time of year, keeping temperatures below freezing and definitely feeling like winter Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures are expected to fall below freezing Monday night with wind chills down into the teens and 20s below zero, especially north. At this time, it looks like we may be just warm enough not to need cold weather headlines, but it's possible that could change.

A quick-hitting clipper could bring some light snow (probably an inch or two) around Tuesday evening. Warm air advection and broad ridging behind this is looking promising to bring spring weather back to the Northland by the end of the week. We should see highs in the 40s and possibly approaching 50 by Thursday and Friday. With the fresh snow and quick transition back to warmer weather, some minor hydro concerns may develop with ponding of water and some rises in rivers and streams. We will also go back to the diurnal freeze-thaw cycle, which should result in slick spots overnight and during the mornings as snow and ice melt and refreeze.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR for most terminals to start early this evening. However, conditions are already starting to deteriorate at BRD and will also do so at other terminals mainly south of the Iron Range this evening and tonight as a strong low pressure system moves into the region and brings moderate to heavy banded snow. IFR to LIFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings get into BRD and HYR starting this evening, and get into DLH overnight/early Sunday morning. Can't rule out some IFR ceilings at BRD/HYR tonight, but potential is less than 50 percent at the moment. MVFR conditions in lighter snow arrive at HIB into the Arrowhead later tonight into Sunday morning. VFR conditions likely to remain at INL through much of the TAF period, with some BKN MVFR ceilings possible Sunday afternoon. Winds increase out of the north tonight, becoming gusty across the region. Gusts in excess of 30 kt gusts start after 12Z Sunday for BRD/DLH/HYR, and linger into Sunday night, becoming exceptionally strong for the North Shore vicinity Sunday evening and night. Expect some blowing snow with these stronger winds at BRD/DLH/HYR, as well.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings were added to the western Lake Superior nearshore waters for Sunday morning through early Monday afternoon as a combination of gale force winds and wave heights over 10 ft combine with temperatures in the teens to 20s to produce heavy freezing spray.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A major winter storm is expected over the next couple days. Expect moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow starting tonight through early Monday. Gales are expected to develop quickly later tonight with northeast winds and some storm force winds are expected around Grand Marais to Grand Portage. A Storm Warning has been issued Sunday night through Monday. Winds shift to northerly going into Monday with gales starting to lessen through the day Monday. Winds are still expected to be gusty into Monday night, and Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds become light for Tuesday. Over the next couple days, wave heights will be very high as well with heights over 10 ft expected for most places lingering into Monday when winds start to gradually lighten up.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ020. Wind Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for MNZ020- 021. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ025-035. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ033-034-036. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ037. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for MNZ038. WI...Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 AM CDT Monday for WIZ001-006-007. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 7 AM CDT Monday for WIZ002-008-009. Blizzard Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140>142-147-148-150. Storm Warning from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ141. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LSZ142. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142- 147-148-150. Wind Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 1 PM CDT Monday for LSZ142. Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from 7 AM Sunday to noon CDT Monday for LSZ143>146.