textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional light snow accumulations along with blustery north- northwest winds continue through this morning. Most areas should see a dusting to a couple inches of snow, with up to 5 additional inches possible in Iron County. Strong winds should ease through this morning.

- A quick round of light to moderate snow is expected Tuesday, with widespread accumulations of a couple tenths to two inches by Tuesday evening.

- Colder temperatures continue for much of the week, outside of a relatively warmer day Tuesday. Persistent lake effect snow is likely for the South Shore Tuesday evening through at least Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

The low pressure system that brought winter storm conditions to portions of the area is making its way east slightly faster than originally forecast, with a central pressure around 982mb over Lake Huron at the time of writing. However, areas of falling and accumulating snow remains. Some snow showers moving over the MN Arrowhead and down the I-35 corridor, boosted by some 850mb frontogenesis and area of steeper mid level lapse rates have led to some reduced visibilities down to a mile and light accumulations. Across NW WI, widespread synoptic snow is starting to push east, expected to fully depart the region by mid to late morning. Lake enhanced snow continues for the South Shore, with a some enhanced gravity wave radar returns over portions of Douglas and Bayfield County. Snow lingers the longest for the South Shore, but should lessen and weaken through the day, coming to an end late this afternoon into the evening as winds turn more westerly. North to northwest winds are very strong early this morning, with widespread gusts of 25-40mph, and locally higher winds along the North Shore. We should be just past peak winds at the time of writing, with conditions calming through this morning as the pressure gradient lessens.

Many of our winter headlines ended early this morning. We've downgraded the remaining Winter Storm Warnings in NW WI to Winter Weather Advisories to account for lingering snow accumulations and ongoing blustery winds that may lead to blowing and drifting snow. The Blizzard Warning for Ashland and Iron Counties has been allowed to continue for now. With a significant gap in automatic observing stations across these two counties, its hard to know exactly what is occurring at the ground, but the period of heaviest snowfall rates and strongest winds should be gradually ending through this morning. The Blizzard Warning will be monitored for a possible downgrade to Winter Weather Advisory over the next couple of hours and into the day shift. Wind headlines remain in effect on the North Shore. The High Wind Warning in coastal Cook County will likely be able to be shifted to a Wind Advisory sometime this morning.

A quick clipper is still expected to brush over the area Tuesday, bringing some quick accumulations to most of the Northland. Latest trends have seen this system nudge south just a tad, with a precipitation shield that should cover most of the Northland. Snow should move into north-central Minnesota after midnight Tuesday, then push southeast through Tuesday morning and depart over the afternoon. By Tuesday evening, most guidance is in very good agreement that much of the area should see QPF totals of 0.05-0.15", which with higher snow to liquid ratios making for a fairly light, fluffy snow, should shake out to 0.5-2" across the region.

Between today's storm departing and Tuesday's clipper, we should see an efficient push of colder air into the area through the week, with most days seeing high temperatures in the teens or colder and overnight lows below zero. The coldest night looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday when some Cold Weather Advisories may be needed. 850mb temperatures should fall to around -20C following tomorrow's clipper through at least midday Thursday. With north to northwesterly winds in that time period, this should allow for the lake effect snow machine to keep chugging for the South Shore, bringing additional light accumulations of a couple tenths to several inches for the usual lake effect snow belts in Douglas, Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties.

Global ensembles suggest continued on/off chances for more snow through the first week of the new year but there's nothing too significant or nefarious showing up in our crystal ball just yet. Most guidance shows the Northland sticking with around to slightly below normal temperatures into early January, so we should continue to be able to enjoy some real winter for the new year!

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

MVFR ceilings and visibilities continue early this morning with ongoing snow for all terminals except INL. This snow should gradually come to an end through this morning, allowing widespread MFVR conditions to take over. Guidance suggests a very persistent MVFR cloud deck to stick around through much of today, clearing out to VFR this afternoon and evening. Downsloping flow along the North Shore may lead to a scattered cloud deck slightly earlier for DLH. Gusty northwest winds should calm through this morning and become calm and variable through the evening. Towards the very end of the TAF period snow begins to arrives at INL.

MARINE

Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Strong north-northwest winds continue early this morning, strongest along the North Shore where gusts in excess of 50 knots are likely at least through sunrise. Most areas have Gale Warnings in effect, with a Storm Warning in effect from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. The low pressure system causing these winds is pushing out of the Great Lakes region faster than originally forecast, so some of our headlines may be able to be downgraded to small craft advisories sooner than currently posted. These strong winds combined with colder temperatures will likely continue to lead to heavy freezing spray in the open waters and along the South Shore. Lake effect snow continues through the day today which could lead to bands of reduced visibility along the South Shore. Winds should quiet down through this evening. However, following a clipper system tomorrow, another round of gusty northwest winds and lake effect snow is possible Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ020. High Wind Warning until noon CST today for MNZ021. WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ001- 002-008-009. Blizzard Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for WIZ003-004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ121-141>148- 150. Storm Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ140-145>148-150. Wind Advisory until noon CST today for LSZ142.