textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Some isolated dangerous travel conditions still exist along the North Shore and Twin Ports due to dense fog and freezing drizzle though warming temperatures will help mitigate this hazard by early afternoon.

- The system then transitions into another round of messy conditions this afternoon as a warm front moves north with rain and a few rumbles of thunder, turning into a wintry mix and snow tonight as a cold front crosses.

- Ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch and minor snow amounts under two inches could lead to slick roads through early Saturday.

- Clippers continue through the remainder of the forecast as zonal flow brings a train of impulses into the Northland.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A complex low pressure system moving across the central Plains will bring a variety of weather impacts to the Northland this afternoon and tonight. For the rest of the day, ongoing dense fog and pockets of freezing drizzle will keep travel dangerous, especially near Lake Superior and along the North Shore where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM. Dense fog along the North Shore will linger until the cold front crosses.

As warmer air pushes northward, precipitation will largely fall as rain this afternoon, and a few isolated thunderstorms may form as instability builds especially across northwest Wisconsin and the I-35 corridor this evening. MUCAPE is only 300 J/kg or so, but 0-6km shear is plentiful and strong at 75 KT with long linear hodographs. No severe threat in my opinion though there may be a bit of thunder activity with steep mid-level lapse rates. As the system lifts toward Upper Michigan tonight, colder air will filter back into the region from the northwest. This will turn the rain into a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet, eventually turning over to all snow from west to east. A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect at 4 PM for all of northeastern Minnesota to cover this icy transition. Didn't get too cute on the timing except that know conditions will fall below freezing this afternoon in Kooch and transition eastward falling below freezing in Lake County by midnight. Ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch are expected, primarily impacting elevated surfaces and untreated roads. The highest ice accumulation potential is around the Brainerd Lakes area and decreases icing amounts to the north. Snowfall amounts will be minor, generally staying under two inches, but falling temperatures could cause any standing water to freeze overnight as temperatures plummet into the lower 20s.

Conditions will improve rapidly on Saturday as the system departs, leaving mostly sunny skies by the afternoon for much of the area. A ridge of high pressure will build in for Sunday, bringing much warmer and sunnier weather to wrap up the weekend. The tight pressure gradient on the western edge of this high will generate breezy southwest winds late Saturday into Sunday. Looking ahead to next week, the pattern remains fast and somewhat uncertain, though temperatures are expected to settle into more seasonal ranges with periodic chances for light precipitation. MOdels are fairly in line with some snow on Tuesday with clipper amounts expected. Looks like some agreement on a more wound up system late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1154 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VLIFR conditions in freezing fog and freezing rain for areas near Lake Superior 18Z to 20Z before temperatures rise above freezing, at which point fog and scattered drizzle/rain showers will continue this afternoon. VLIFR to LIFR ceilings and LIFR to MVFR visibilities in fog and scattered drizzle/rain showers elsewhere this afternoon. A more organized band of precipitation moves in this evening as a low pressure system passes through the region. Rain in this band could have a few embedded thunderstorms for HYR this evening and possibly DLH, but potential was not high enough to include in the 18Z TAF forecasts. There will be a few hour window starting later this afternoon/early evening in north-central Minnesota and then moving east this evening and tonight through the rest of the area where rain will mix with freezing rain and snow as colder air moves in behind the cold front. Precipitation will completely turn over to light snow for several hours from west to east tonight into Saturday morning and gradually end from west to east, as well. By late Saturday morning, BRD and INL may already have improved to VFR conditions and HIB and DLH to MVFR, while HYR will likely still be IFR through the end of the current 18Z TAF period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Northeast winds around 5 to 15 knots will continue this afternoon along with patchy dense fog and periods of drizzle and rain. Winds will shift to the northwest tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. A major shift occurs late Saturday into Sunday as winds back to the southwest and increase significantly. A Gale Watch is in effect starting Saturday evening for the North Shore, where southwest gusts could reach 40 knots, building waves to 4 to 8 feet across the western arm of Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ020-021- 037. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for MNZ010>012- 018>021-025-026-033>038. WI...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for LSZ140-141. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for LSZ142. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Saturday for LSZ142.