textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms arrive today into Wednesday, with a low threat of strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. The best potential for any isolated strong to severe storms would be in central and north-central Minnesota. - Additional showers and isolated, non-severe thunderstorm potential continues on Wednesday and Thursday, with the best storm potential (10-40%) during peak daytime heating in the afternoon to early evening.

- A more active pattern with rising moisture and instability brings another shot for rain and storms Sunday through next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Cyclonic flow aloft keeps rain shower chances lingering Wednesday and into early Thursday, primarily across northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, before drier air finally wins out. By Friday and Saturday, a brief lull in the active weather arrives as a ridge builds over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. This will provide a dry start to the weekend with seasonable temperatures in the 70s and comfortable humidity levels.

Looking ahead to the end of the weekend and early next week, ensembles show a decent shot for more rain and storms in the Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday timeframe. A plume of rich precipitable water moves north into the region, followed by a large boost in CAPE and shear on Monday. With southwest flow aloft and the main storm track setting up just to our west, there could easily be strong storms, making this a period to monitor closely for potential hazards.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Winds increase from the southeast this morning, to 6-10kts, ahead of an approaching storm system. Cannot rule out a gust to 20kts. Showers and thunderstorms will spread into northeast Minnesota around midday, with showers at BRD as early as 17Z. Activity will spread eastward through the afternoon and evening. MVFR to locally IFR conditions are possible with the rain/storms as they move over a terminal.

Most terminals have at least a 20% chance of thunderstorms for a few hours, with higher chances (40%) at BRD. Stronger, erratic gusts and hail could be possible with stronger storms, with better chances at BRD and INL for those impacts. All storms will produce locally heavy rainfall. Cigs will lower tonight, with LIFR conditions possible, with easterly winds at 5-10kts.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Today, a low pressure system approaches, shifting winds to the northeast and east at 10 to 15 knots, with gusts up to 22kts. There is a period of 3-4 hours this afternoon and early evening, when there is a 20-30% chance of wind gusts over 25kts at the head of the lake and from Saxon Harbor towards the Outer Apostle Islands. Widespread showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, though the severe threat is low.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Today, ahead of an approaching low pressure system, minimum RH values will fall into the 35-40 percent range across portions of the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin before moisture begins to increase. Widespread wetting rain and thunderstorms arrive from west to east this afternoon and continue through Wednesday, pushing minimum relative humidity values into the 55 to 70 percent range. Winds will shift to the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with some higher gusts. A drier pattern returns for Thursday and Friday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.