textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible this evening and tonight, capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

- Heavy rainfall is expected in the mid week under a rain band with a stalled front. Some areas that have had recent rainfall have the highest potential for flooding for the mid week.

- A brief reprieve from humidity comes late week with a high pressure before it builds back in over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For the rest of the day, hot and muggy conditions will remain across the Northland. Storms have initiated in Canada, and is starting to unzip to the south in a line into northwest Minnesota. As these track into our region this evening, the environment is still conducive for severe weather, with CAPE values 2000-3000 J/kg and wind shear around 30 kts. However, CAMs soundings are showing a substantial cap in the low levels, which will keep storms elevated. Hail up to 2 inches in size and wind gusts 60-70 mph are still possible, but tornado chances are low due to their elevated bases. Some ponding is possible where heaviest rain occurs through the overnight hours.

On Tuesday, the cold front will continue to sag southward across the area. This will keep humid conditions in place with scattered showers and thunderstorms redeveloping during the afternoon and evening hours. A storm or two could be strong to severe, with hail up to 2 inches and damaging winds to 60 mph.

The mid week flooding potential is still high as the front stalls and becomes stationary. Models are still uncertain on exact placement on where the heaviest band of precipitation will set up, but most members of the ensembles put the band in northern MN/WI. The band placement still ranges from the Iron Range to the Twin Cities. This setup favors training storms that can drop multiple inches of water, bringing a significant risk of widespread flash flooding to the region through Wednesday night. Potential rain totals range between 2-4 inches under the band, though some locally higher totals is possible.

By Thursday morning, the heavy rain system will slide off to the east, bringing a welcome end to the active weather. High pressure builds into the area for Thursday and Friday, causing humidity levels to drop significantly. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies will provide a break from the hot and humid airmass that has been over the Northland. Looking ahead to the weekend, an upper level ridge begins to build over the central United States on Saturday and Sunday. This pattern change will gradually draw hotter and more humid conditions back into the region to close out the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to push east across the area early this morning causing reductions in vis and ceiling. This should continue to move east and dissipate, leaving the area with all VFR conditions by sunrise, some some scattered MVFR ceilings are possible. Behind the line of showers, a weak wake low has developed, leading to strong gusting winds up to 35 knots, which could affect HIB, DLH, and HYR (if it holds together). Expect mostly like northerly winds through the day today. Some showers and thunderstorms return overnight into Wednesday morning, possibly affecting BRD by this evening, otherwise all other sites will have the best chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms after 06z Wednesday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Expect calm conditions for the rest of today with a light onshore lake breeze. West to southwest winds develop on Tuesday, with gusts up to 15 knots possible in the far North Shore. Thunderstorms may approach the western waters late tonight and are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially around the Twin Ports and South Shore. Winds turn northeasterly on Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Southerly winds return this afternoon with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible in north-central Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms will move northwest to southeast tonight along a cold front, with isolated activity lingering Tuesday. A significant heavy rain threat develops late Tuesday through Wednesday, though the far northern border areas may remain dry. Winds turn lighter and shift northeasterly mid-week before southerly flow returns late week with lower dewpoints and still warm temperatures.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.