textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal early January temperatures in the single digits to teens expected today and Saturday before a gradual warm up into next week. Highs above freezing are possible next week.

- Chance for widespread light snow Saturday morning with lingering lake effect snow along the South Shore Saturday evening. Accumulations should largely be an inch or less.

- Increasing confidence for a second slightly more potent system Sunday afternoon into Monday morning that could bring a quick burst of moderate to heavy snow. A narrow band of 4-6"+ is possible, but uncertainty is still high on placement.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 429 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Predominant high pressure and clear skies this morning are a bit of a deviation from most of this week where the Northland was waking up to widespread light and fluffy snow. We should see mostly sunny skies and light winds persist through the day with high temperatures in the upper single digits north to low teens south - near average for Jan 2. Don't worry, we get our morning snow fluffy back tomorrow, as a weak shortwave brings a puff of moisture across the International Border. This setup looks very similar to those from earlier this week, with a high Pop, low QPF situation and a colder atmospheric profile defined by a very deep DGZ. This should lend itself to most of the area seeing some lovely light snowfall beginning after midnight Saturday into the early afternoon. Have given a big expansion to PoPs across the Northland, highest for the Borderlands, MN Arrowhead, and South Shore. Accumulations should largely be less than an inch.

We'll have just a brief lull Saturday evening into Sunday midday before the next round of precipitation moves in. Another upper level shortwave moves zonally across the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest by Sunday afternoon, pushing a band of frontogenesis along the leading edge of a warm nose across MN/WI/U.P MI through the evening and into early Monday morning. This system should be able to maintain some enhanced Pacific moisture with it which combined with good synoptic and mesoscale support should produce impressive ascent just below the DGZ. While there is good saturation for most of the system, the warm nose means that the DGZ is very elevated which could lead to snowflake riming and reduced SLRs. Recent guidance has trended upwards in intensity and snowfall amounts for this system, putting the best chance for some higher amounts (20-50% chance of 4"+) from the MN Arrowhead across the South Shore and along the WI/MI border. However placement is still very undecided as run-to-run shifts are still rampant along with model-to-model discrepancies. There will also be a balance struck between the intensity and the speed of the system as snowfall rates could be very high but transient. For now, have largely stuck with NBM QPF which is right around the 50th percentile of most guidance, but has trended upwards over the last couple forecast iterations. There is still a large QPF spread across ensemble and deterministic solutions from mostly dry to 0.5"+ of liquid equivalent. Model soundings do suggest that we might lose moisture aloft towards the end of the system along with increased WAA, which could lend itself to a little freezing drizzle or rain following the snow.

Warm air advection and ridging will likely then become fairly dominant for the work week. Several febrile airmasses move through bringing temperatures 15-25 degrees above normal. Afternoon high temperatures will likely rise into the low to mid 30s much of the week, with the warmest day Thursday. Global ensembles continue to suggest troughing digging across the CONUS late week, which could bring a more put together low pressure system into the Midwest that could deliver some heavy precipitation to someone. Should it track into our neck of the woods, this could mean heavy snow or mixed precipitation for the Northland, and we're keeping an eye on the Jan 9-12 time period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all terminals this afternoon with gusty northwest winds slowly decreasing. A system moves in late tonight, bringing widespread light snow and lowering ceilings. Expect deterioration to MVFR/IFR categories after 09Z Saturday at KINL and couple hours afterwards at KDLH persisting through early Saturday afternoon with flurries in the afternoon. Winds will back to the west and remain generally under 10 knots during the snowfall.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 429 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Moderately gusty northwest to west winds continue over western Lake Superior through today, gradually dying down this afternoon and evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for portions of the North Shore northeast of Taconite Harbor and along the South Shore from Port Wing to Sand Island and across the Outer Apostle Islands. Depending on how winds die down through the day we may be able to cancel the advisories early. Winds remain northwesterly through Sunday morning but should stay rather weak. Through the day Sunday winds turn to become southeasterly ahead of an approaching system which may lead to some 20kt+ gusts, particularly for the North Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for LSZ140- 141-146-150.