textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers or storms are possible this afternoon, mainly along the Iron Range and over portions of northwest Wisconsin. Severe storms are not expected.

- There will be several chances of thunderstorms Sunday through the first half of next week. Some of the storms may be strong to severe particularly Monday and Tuesday.

- Hot and humid conditions are forecast Monday. Heat headlines may be needed.

UPDATE.

Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The upper level low that aided in convection Wednesday afternoon has weakened into an open wave with the trough axis now east of the Northland. High pressure is sliding southward through central Canada, with easterly to northeasterly flow low level flow developing over the area. With the afternoon and evening rainfall and residual low level moisture, locally dense fog has developed along portions of the Iron Range, the Arrowhead, and near the head of the lake. Will be posting a Dense Fog Advisory from roughly Ely to Grand Rapids and locations northward through early Thursday morning.

For today, isolated to scattered shower and storm chances exist across portions of the Arrowhead as easterly flow will result in a lake breeze that could generate some showers. For portions of northwest Wisconsin, there weak energy on the backside of the shortwave coupled with diurnally driven instability could allow for a few showers or storms. Severe storms are not expected, and most of the Northland will be dry. Dry conditions continue through Friday as high pressure moves through the Midwest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Temperatures will start to warm heading into the weekend as the high shifts southeast and sets up return flow across the Upper Midwest. Highs Friday will be in the 70s before warming into the 70s and 80s for the weekend. Moisture will be on the increase as well with dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s away from Lake Superior by Sunday, leading to warm and humid conditions.

An upper ridge moves through this weekend and starts to shift east of the region on Monday. This will reinforce the warmer air and higher dewpoints with highs in the 80s and 90s Monday away from Lake Superior along with dewpoints in the 60s and 70s. Heat headlines may be needed. Given the increasing heat and humidity, there will be chances for showers and storms starting Saturday night into Sunday with better chances Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front works through. There are indications that severe storms will be possible in parts of the Upper Midwest during this time period. Additionally, PWATs are forecast to rise into the 1.5-2" range ahead of this front, which would be above the 90th percentile for late June. As such, heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1242 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Concerns of fog at DLH dwindled during the evening as the initial surge of fog off Lake Superior dissipated. Mist and fog will redevelop at most of the terminals overnight due to clearing skies and radiational cooling after showers and storms Wednesday. Periods of IFR and LIFR to VLIFR conditions are forecast early this morning. Isolated showers and storms this afternoon should be limited to the Arrowhead and portions of northwest Wisconsin east of HYR. VFR conditions are expected after the fog and mist mix out this morning.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

High pressure builds into the area today, with light and variable winds at 10 knots or less through Friday morning. Friday afternoon, winds increase from the northeast to east, at 5 to 10 kts, with gusts to 15 kts at the head of the lake. Strong northeast winds persist Saturday and Sunday afternoons, and small craft advisories could be necessary.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 348 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Drier conditions expected for today and Friday, but increasing moisture is expected. This will help keep most areas above 40% for afternoon RH values, although localized areas may dip into the 30 to 40% range, mainly in the interior Arrowhead. Winds will remain under 15 mph both days. Warm conditions take hold into the weekend and early next week with increasing chances for showers and storms starting Saturday night.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.