textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms across northern MN this morning

- Another round of storms will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours. These storms have better chances of being strong to severe and could produce large hail and damaging winds. Marginal severe outlook today (level 1 out of 5).

- Cooler and quieter conditions for the weekend.

- Next chance for showers and storms after Friday is late Monday into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Current Conditions/Today:

Early this morning a weak shortwave was rounding the apex of the upper level ridge over the region leading to thunderstorms across the International Border. The warm and moist air mass that has been parked over the region the past few days gave way to plenty of fuel for these storms to fire off. Ventilation was a bit more nebulous with bulk shear values of around 30 kts. However, based on the radar presentation sub severe hail has likely been observed with occasional quarters at times. While this activity will wane through the morning hours, another shortwave moving across the Red River Valley will likely bring another dose of showers and storms for northern MN later this morning.

Trying to pick out the perfect solution for today will be nearly impossible. The big picture is that we still have a very warm and moist air mass over the region. Isentropic lift paired with any subtle disturbances aloft could generate additional showers and storms throughout the day. The best forcing will initially be out west across the Northern Plains as a stout mid level shortwave presses east. This feature will also help to propel a low pressure system across the Midwest. The better rainfall still looks to be to our south closer to the low pressure system moving through southern MN. That's not to say we won't see any activity through the overnight hours. There is another system moving through Ontario which will have a cold front sliding through our neck of the woods to help generate some activity as well. But the overall evolution largely depends on how much the region gets worked over during the daylight hours.

Through the day and even the overnight hours the thermodynamics should remain favorable with instability in excess of 2000 J/kg expected. The limiting factors remain our lifting mechanism, which increases this afternoon and evening. And the kinematics as our bulk shear values needed for proper storm maintenance remain lacking. As such the SPC still has the region highlighted in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) through tomorrow morning. Primary hazards would be large hail and damaging winds. Excessive rainfall is still outlined as a marginal threat from WPC as well, but given that the better forcing is to our south this seems less impactful. PWATs will still be over 1.50" which is above the 90th percentile, so storms that do generate could disperse some healthy amounts of rain.

Friday:

Rain and storm activity will linger through the morning hours with some guidance suggesting a final push of storms possible in the afternoon across NW WI as the cold front exits the region. Temperatures will cool into the lower 80s and dewpoints will also drop out of the 70s and back into the 60s providing a nice reprieve from the muggy weather.

Weekend-Next Week:

Quiet weather is expected through the weekend as a surface high pressure slides across Ontario and through the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly higher than seasonable averages with highs forecasted to be in the 80s. Fortunately dewpoints will stay in the 60s keeping the oppressive heat at bay. Monday starts to warm up with high climbing into the upper 80s as southerly return flow from the departing high pressure streams back into the Northland. This warm up will be breif as another system slides in late Monday through Tuesday bringing more rain and storm chances and cooler weather on the backside.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered showers and storms remain possible across northern MN through the morning hours. The better chances will arrive later this afternoon and overnight as a system moves in from the west. Some storms may be strong to severe. This activity is expected to wane as we head into tomorrow morning. Flight conditions will largely be VFR expect for instances when thunderstorms may impact a terminal.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Southwest winds gusting to 20 kts, slightly stronger winds could be observed from Grand Marais to Grand Portage. Scattered showers and storms will be possible through the day and may lead to brief instances of stronger winds across the Lake. Storms may also be strong to severe, especially in the afternoon and early evening. These storms could produce large hail and damaging winds. Activity starts to taper off Friday morning.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through the day today across. Some storms may be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary hazards. Rain totals will be that of feast or famine with a juicy atmosphere capable of outputting over inch of rain from thunderstorms, but coverage will be sporadic. Activity tapers off Friday as a cold front slides southeast and winds switch to out of the northwest.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.