textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy drizzle and light rain continues this afternoon, with more widespread rain chances entering from the west later this afternoon and exiting tomorrow morning. A few storms will be possible from the Brainerd Lakes into NW WI through this evening. - Quiet and cool Tuesday and Wednesday

- Rain chances return Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

This Afternoon and Tonight:

A stalled front stretches from near the Twin Cities eastward through north central Wi and across northern Lake Michigan this afternoon. North of this front gusty east winds are blowing across the Northland. With increased low level moisture and flow off the lake, patchy drizzle and light rain are expected to continue. Starting to see more light showers develop over the Arrowhead, as low level isentropic lift increases and a mid level jet moves overhead. Further to our west, more organized showers and storms are ongoing across portions of ND.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening, showers will become more widespread as a shortwave lifts through the region. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two, mainly from Brainerd eastward across northwest WI. Instability parameters are meager, with limited MUCAPE above a cap but in the hail growth zone. If a stronger storm does develop, small hail will be the main concern. Additional rainfall amounts will be between 0.10-0.50 inch, and dependent on where more persistent heavier rain falls.

Tuesday and Wednesday:

Upper level flow becomes more zonal Tuesday, with showers ending across the Arrowhead Tuesday morning. Low level moisture lingers across the area, and would not rule out a few light showers around but for now will maintain a dry forecast for mid morning and through the day. High pressure arrives Wednesday, keeping conditions dry with clearing skies. Temperatures will be much more seasonable with highs in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will fall back into the 30s.

Thursday and Friday:

Not many changes noted for the end of the week system. Guidance continues to be in better agreement with one low ejecting out of the Central Rockies starting Thursday morning, pushing moisture northeastward toward the Upper Midwest. Another low will be dropping south out of central Canada and will pick up the Plains low somewhere over the Midwest. Although there is some timing differences with the two systems, there is good agreement that moisture transport from the Plains will be mainly to our southeast. There will be enough moisture and forcing on the north side of the Plains low for showers Thursday afternoon and evening, with the Canadian low currently lagging a bit behind and mainly result in cold advection showers Thursday night.

Weekend:

The aforementioned lows will merge over the Great Lakes leading to a strong pressure gradient setting up over the Northland. Gusty north winds with ample cold air pouring in from the north will lead to a very chilly Saturday morning with lows in the 20s. Dry air will also dominant most the region leading to mostly sunny skies and highs continuing to be in the 50s and 60s. The dry and windy conditions may prompt fire weather concerns for Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1258 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Current obs show a mix of low stratus and drizzle (with reduced vis) with light rain showers across the far northwest portion of the area. Cigs are generally below 1kft at forecast terminals. The southern edge of stratus is lift northward, and could see improvement at HYR soon. Otherwise, low cigs will persist through the period.

Low clouds and showers are occurring north of a stalled front, to our south. That front will lift slightly northward this afternoon, with showers becoming more widespread. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm as well, with the better chances for TS at BRD and HYR. With moist easterly fetch off the lake, expect low cigs and drizzle to continue at DLH through much of the afternoon, until showers move into the area. Northeast wind gusts of 20-30kts will continue through the evening, before winds turn to the north and diminish.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Strong northeast winds continue across the Lake this afternoon, with gusts to near 30 knots. See the latest MWW for the latest details on timing and wave heights. Gales are expected to taper off tonight, but hazardous boating conditions for small vessels will persist through Tuesday afternoon as wave heights will take some additional time to decrease.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 256 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

There are no immediate fire weather concerns through most of the work week. Rain chances continue this afternoon and tonight, and Min RHs are not expected to start drying out again until Friday. The next elevated fire weather conditions will likely be Friday and Saturday as winds increase and Min RHs drop into the 30s and possibly 20s for Saturday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121- 148. Gale Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>147-150.