textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow and mixed precipitation is likely along the International Border and Arrowhead late tonight and Saturday morning. Snow and mixed accumulation up to one inch is possible.

- Warm and mainly quiet weather Sunday and early Monday.

- A messy early winter system is in the forecast late Monday through Thursday next week. Rain, snow, and wind are all possible. Amounts are still uncertain at this time.

- A pattern change with winter temperatures is expected midweek and into the near future.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

It's sunny. There are some clouds around the Brainerd Lakes though. Those are expected to persist into the evening.

A clipper system is expected to skirt across the Canadian border tonight. There's pretty good model agreement at this point that some light snow and probably some mixed precipitation will affect the International Border and Arrowhead. QPF amounts to around a tenth of an inch. SLRs may be high enough to squeeze out up to an inch of snow for the elevated terrain of the Arrowhead Saturday morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. There could be a bit of freezing drizzle/rain as well, which could affect the Saturday morning commute, though with amounts are expected to be minimal. Still, there could be some patchy glazes of ice out there in the morning to watch out for.

Temperatures should warm up quickly during the afternoon with drier air moving in. It's looking like a quiet and warm Sunday with some broad ridging and warm air advection aloft developing.

On Monday, attention turns to a potent low pressure system that's expected to bring rain to the central Midwest and move northward into the afternoon. We might see the first of several rounds of rain moving in as early as Monday afternoon. Another low over ~Montana is expected to move east and entangle itself with the aforementioned low. This will create a bit of messiness in terms of both storms' precipitation shields as they essentially combine through midweek. Associated with the first low pressure system, which will affect us Tuesday, it's looking like there will be a potent TROWAL that will keep precipitation type as mainly rain, or if it does mix or change to snow up near the border during the afternoon, temperatures will still be above freezing initially. PWATs around 0.8" at the high end suggest that rainfall and/or mixed precipitation rates are not expected to be extraordinarily heavy. Just some persistent light to moderate rain with some brief heavy rain possible. Through the whole event (lasting as late as Thursday), a few areas could top out at 1" of rain and/or melted mixed precip (10% chance), but most are likely to be up to half an inch (~60% chance).

As we go into Tuesday night, it's likely that there will be a dry slot that moves in from the south. So, as temperatures do start to cool below freezing, many places where it will be cold enough for snow may not see much of anything. The International Border currently has the best chance of precipitation lingering and switching to some wet snow Tuesday night. Into Wednesday, PWATs tumble below 0.5" as the second low (which at this time should have effectively absorbed the first) passes through the region. We should have lingering light snow that will probably be a bit spotty in coverage and stick around potentially into Thursday as the low slowly departs. We will start getting into the cold air advection and north/northwest wind regime on the back side of the low Wednesday night into Thursday, so we will look at much cooler temperatures and some lake enhanced/effect snow developing along the South Shore and possible off of some of the larger Minnesota inland lakes as well as temperatures aloft at 850-hPa fall as low as -10 to -15C (still plenty of uncertainty on exactly how cold it will get).

In terms of snow from these systems, here are the approximate probabilities for amounts and locations:

>= 1": 25-70%, highest in northern Minnesota and Iron Co, WI. >= 3": 10-45% in northeast Minnesota (highest along the International Border), 10-60% in northwest Wisconsin (highest in Iron Co, WI.) >= 6": up to 15% along the International Border and 10-40% in Iron Co, WI.

Gusty winds are expected at times as these systems pass through, especially on Tuesday with the rain and then again Wednesday night into Thursday as winds become northwesterly. Gusts to around 30 mph are expected, and there's a ~25% chance that gusts could exceed 35 mph at times.

Lake-effect snow along the South Shore could linger into Friday at the latest, then we should settle into true winter temperatures for the foreseeable future. We may remain in an active weather pattern as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Currently VFR conditions for the terminals to continue through approximately 09z tonight. Late tonight after 09z, a shortwave trough is expected to bring clouds and some light snow to the Arrowhead and adjacent areas along the Canadian Border. INL may see some light snow for a few hours Saturday morning, which could lead to some MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Have included only MVFR ceilings for now, as lowered visibilities will be more intermittent in nature. Accumulations are expected to be minor, but a light dusting of snow may lead to slippery pavement conditions. The other terminals are expected to remain VFR, but may have some scattered MVFR cloud bases during the afternoon, as wind turn westerly and gust 15 to 20 kts.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 350 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Winds become light and variable overnight, then southerly into Saturday. Some gusts up to 20 to 25 kt are possible Saturday afternoon along the South Shore and Apostle Islands, spreading to the North Shore during the night as winds become westerly. Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Some light rain or mixed precipitation is possible for the North Shore Saturday morning. Winds lessen but remain westerly into Sunday. Attention turns to an active weather system that will move through Monday through Thursday next week. Windy conditions are likely Tuesday through Thursday. Gales may be possible at times.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.