textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Tonight will feature a mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain into Tuesday morning causing slippery conditions.

- Lake effect snow could lead to additional snowfall up to 6 inches in northern Iron County Tuesday night.

- Another system in the late week will bring another round of snow to the Northland, ranging 2-5 inches, followed by dangerously cold conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

The Northland will experience a sharp transition from an unusually mild Monday to a more traditional January deep freeze by the end of the week. This afternoon remains pleasant under a ridge of high pressure, with temperatures reaching well into the 30s across Northeast Minnesota and Northwest Wisconsin. However, a clipper system is fast approaching from the northwest, bringing a complicated array of precipitation types starting late tonight. Because the atmosphere will be hovering around freezing both near the ground and in the mid-levels, we expect a period of mixed precipitation. This includes light snow, rain, and a concerning window of freezing rain or freezing drizzle. Surfaces that are currently warm from today's sun will quickly cool after sunset, allowing a light glaze of ice to form on bridges, overpasses, and untreated roads.

By Tuesday morning, the primary low-pressure center shifts east, and an arctic cold front will begin its push through the Arrowhead and north-central Minnesota. As colder air infiltrates the region, mixed precipitation will transition to all snow. However, there is a potential for a loss of cloud ice aloft while low- level moisture remains trapped. This could result in a period of freezing drizzle even after the main snow has ended, as there may not be enough ice crystals in the clouds to produce snowflakes. Winds will also turn blustery, shifting to the northwest and gusting up to 30 mph. Most will see snowfall below an inch and up to a glaze from this system. Winter Weather Advisories are also in effect where confidence in ice accumulation is higher, highlighting slippery conditions for the morning commute.

As the main system departs Tuesday night, attention shifts to the South Shore of Lake Superior. Cold air passing over the relatively warmer lake waters will activate the lake-effect snow machine. Areas along the Penokee Range and northern Iron County are particularly at risk, where an additional 4 to 6 inches of snow could accumulate through Wednesday morning. The rest of the region will see clearing skies but much colder conditions, with highs on Wednesday struggling to climb out of the teens.

The pattern remains active as we look toward the end of the week. Another potent clipper system is expected to arrive on Thursday. Unlike the early-week system, this one will have a much deeper reservoir of cold air to work with, meaning precipitation should stay all snow and will be light and fluffy in nature. Widespread totals of 2 to 5 inches are currently forecast, though these have the potential to change throughout the week. There are signs this system could stall over the Great Lakes, potentially drawing out the snowfall through Friday evening. Once this system exits, an arctic air mass will settle in for the weekend. High temperatures will plummet into the single digits above zero, with overnight lows falling well below zero. When combined with elevated winds, wind chill values may reach levels that require Cold Weather Advisories.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate through the TAF period as messy precipitation moves in overnight into Tuesday morning. Areas of snow, freezing rain, and rain are all possible along with pockets of LLWS. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate to MVFR to IFR levels along with MVFR visibilities. Some slight improvements may be possible in visibilities late Tuesday morning into the afternoon depending on how fast areas of precipitation move through. Fairly light winds start to pick up overnight into Tuesday morning from the west to northwest with gusts in excess of 20 knots.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 222 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A Gale Watch is in effect for all of western Lake Superior from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Southwest winds today will shift to the north-northwest Tuesday night, increasing to 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots possible. Significant wave heights of 5 to 10 feet are expected along the South Shore. Heavy freezing spray is likely along with the gales as temperatures drop rapidly.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ010-018-019-026-035-037. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ001>003-008-009. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ004. MARINE...Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for LSZ121-140>148-150.