textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Very light lake effect snow along the South Shore, particularly near Ashland and Iron counties, will end this morning.

- A quick-moving weather system brings widespread light snow amounts of 1-2" for most of the Northland tonight into Sunday, likely resulting in slippery roads for the second half of the weekend.

- A warming trend begins today, with high temperatures rising into the 20s next week and possibly into the 30s for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Today:

Early this morning, much of the Northland is situated underneath strong high pressure leading to clear skies and very light to calm winds in northeast Minnesota. The combination of clear skies and calm winds could lead to localized pockets of fog through around sunrise this morning, but widespread fog is not expected. Meanwhile, northwest Wisconsin has seen north to northeasterly winds lead to low stratus this morning and even some very light snow in north-central Wisconsin from Iron County south to Price County. Little to no accumulations expected as the snow should push off into Lake Superior as surface winds switch around to southwesterly towards sunrise in northwest Wisconsin.

There is also quite the spread in low temperatures expected for early this morning, with upper-single digits to widespread teens below zero for lows in northeast Minnesota under clear skies and single digits above and below zero for much of northwest Wisconsin due to the cloud cover. Some portions of far northern Minnesota may even touch 20 degrees below zero. Minimum wind chills early this morning shouldn't be too far off from temperatures due to calm to light winds, ranging from the single digits to 20s below zero, warmest in northwest Wisconsin and coldest in far northern Minnesota.

As the surface high pressure exits to our south and southeast today, winds will swing around to southwest this morning and then southerly for the remainder of the day. These winds gradually increase as the day progresses, with gusts of 15-20 mph in northeast Minnesota this afternoon becoming more widespread across the Northland to around 20-25 mph this evening and tonight as a Clipper system approaches from the northwest. A good chunk of the day will be sunny to mostly sunny, but starting late in the day and evening we will also see cloud cover increasing. The combination of southerly winds and mostly sunny skies will warm high temperatures into the teens to low 20s above zero. Also can't rule out some very light snow associated with a lake effect convergence band briefly grazing nearshore portions of Cook County late this morning and early afternoon due to the switch to southwesterly to southerly winds. Little to no accumulations expected.

Tonight - Sunday Night:

Snow associated with the Clipper system looks to arrive around or shortly after midnight in north-central Minnesota and then expand eastward into the rest of northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin tonight into Sunday morning. While overall model consensus is for this to be a lighter snow event, a decent signal for low-level (925 mb) frontogenesis tonight into pre- sunrise Sunday morning for north-central and northeast Minnesota could aid in moderate snowfall rates (0.25-0.5"/hr) for a few hours at any one locations before the frontogenesis signal wanes Sunday morning as the main snow band moves into northwest Wisconsin. Light snow then continues for much of Sunday before ending west to east Sunday afternoon and evening, with some lingering very light lake effect snow in Iron County into Sunday night. The timing of this snowfall could make any travel tonight and Sunday morning slippery, with some reduced visibility tonight and Sunday morning due to a combination of the snowfall rates and gusty southerly winds, maybe even some patchy blowing snow in open areas. Winds then weaken a bit for Sunday afternoon into Sunday night while turning northwesterly behind an eastward moving cold front with relatively mild temperatures in the 20s for Sunday afternoon.

As for snow totals, expect most of the Northland to see 1-2". There may be some localized pockets of 2-3" in portions of north-central and northeast Minnesota where the aforementioned moderate snow rates will be present for a few hours. Meanwhile, portions of north-central Wisconsin may struggle to reach 1" of snowfall due to daytime accumulations and being removed from the area of stronger low-level frontogenesis and moderate snowfall rates. Snow consistencies should be typical, not overly fluffy with a snow-to-liquid ratio of 14-18 to 1 as there will be some shallower saturation in the dendritic growth zone around 550-650 mb, but most of the saturated atmospheric profile will be warmer than the dendritic growth zone from between 650 mb to 850/900 mb.

Next Week:

Most of next week will see the upper-level pattern remaining in northwest flow with the coldest arctic air remaining in Canada. Look for daily high temperatures to be in the teens to low 20s for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of the Sunday Clipper system, then turn even warmer for mid week with widespread highs in the 20s on Wednesday and many areas possibly touching the low to mid 30s on Thursday. Weak shortwave energy on Tuesday now looks to pass south of the Northland, with a separate shortwave trough moving across northern Ontario on Wednesday. At this time, both of these systems look to be too far to our south and north, respectively, to bring any light snow chances to the Northland.

Global ensembles then show a decent signal for a more prominent Clipper system to track near the Upper Midwest/International Border area on Thursday and then into the Great Lakes region Thursday night and Friday. Ensemble low pressure center tracks still have a decent amount of spread regarding where exactly this system may track, with the ECE ensemble having slightly tighter and more southerly tracks for the low pressure as a whole relative to the GEFS. This will be something to keep a close eye on going forward as global ensembles converge towards a more concrete solution. A more northerly track would bring warmer temperatures into the Northland on Thursday and introduce the potential for some rain to mix with the snow, while a more southerly track could put the Northland near or on the cold side of the low pressure with all snow as the precipitation type for Thursday and Friday and potentially in a banded snowfall region for Thursday and Thursday night. Behind that system, temperatures likely cool-off below normal once again for late next week into next weekend as some form of arctic air moves back into the region, though there remains a fair amount of spread/uncertainty as to just how cold that arctic air will be.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions expected for most terminals until late this evening/tonight for northeast Minnesota terminals until snow arrives with a Clipper system. Northwest Wisconsin/HYR has persistent lake effect IFR to MVFR clouds that should linger into the mid to late morning before scattering out as southwest winds push most of the cloud cover over Lake Superior and the remainder scatters out. Satellite shows the western fringe getting very close to DLH, but it will be a fine line this morning as to whether MVFR ceilings can reach Duluth before winds push the clouds over Lake Superior. Have opted to hold off on MVFR at DLH for now. High to mid level clouds and increasing southerly winds begin to return to northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin from west to east this afternoon and evening ahead of the Clipper system. Expect low-level wind shear to also develop starting this evening for northeast Minnesota terminals, and tonight for northwest Wisconsin/HYR. MVFR conditions in the snow move into INL/BRD around or shortly after midnight, spread east into HIB/DLH in the 06-09Z timeframe tonight, and then into HYR near or just after the very end of the current TAF period Sunday morning. Can't rule out some IFR conditions very late in the current TAF period at BRD and IFR visibility and more widespread IFR visibility in northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin daytime Sunday.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

High pressure overhead will keep winds light through this morning. However, winds back to southwest starting this morning and increase later today into Sunday, being strongest tonight into daytime Sunday with gusts of 15-25 kt. Confidence is highest in reaching conditions hazardous for small vessels from Taconite Harbor to Grand Portage early Sunday morning through afternoon due to around 25 kt gusts and waves of 3 to 5 feet. Confidence is not high enough for the remainder of the western Lake Superior nearshore waters to see hazardous conditions for small vessels as most locations should see 20 kt gusts with only some occasional gusts up to 25 kt. Winds then turn northwesterly behind a cold front starting Sunday night and stay northwesterly into early next week with gusts generally remaining at or less than 20 kt.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140- 141.