textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Extremely dangerously cold temperatures are expected through the weekend, with multiple days below zero for Thursday through Monday morning. Actual low temperatures will be in the 20s to 40F below zero, and minimum wind chills as low as the 30s to 50s below zero. The coldest timeframe will be Thursday night through Saturday.

- A couple areas of light snow pass over the region today, with some light wrap around snow possibly lingering into Thursday morning. Accumulations around 1 inch or less are expected.

- Light lake effect snow and clouds may persist along the South Shore into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Clipper With Light Snow Today - Early Thursday:

Seeing some light snow showers this morning as some weak surface/mid-level troughing moves across the Northland coupled with a mostly saturated atmospheric profile, the lowest few thousand feet of which are located in the dendritic growth zone. There may be a couple hour break in snow for NE MN around sunrise early this morning and in northwest Wisconsin mid morning before additional shortwave energy associated with another approaching Clipper system brings in widespread snow from the northwest today along and behind a front. Some wrap around light snow is expected into at least this evening behind the front, with additional shortwave energy possibly keeping the light snow going into Thursday morning. Around 1-1.5" or less are forecast for the region, with the lowest amounts around 0.5" in far northern Minnesota.

Temperatures will be relatively mild today, with highs topping out in the teens, though wind chills will remain in the single digits above and below zero. Gusty northwest winds move in behind the front this afternoon into tonight, starting the trend of substantially colder air for the next several days beginning tonight.

Extremely Dangerous Cold Late This Week - Weekend:

A brutally cold arctic airmass is expected to work over the northern CONUS behind the departing Clipper and cold front tonight through this weekend as 850 mb temperatures drop into the -20s to -30s degC tonight through Sunday night. At the ground, this will translate to a prolonged period of temperatures below 0F for most locations in the Northland from Thursday through Monday morning. Northwest winds will initially be breezy for Thursday into midday Friday, resulting in the coldest wind chills being in the late Thursday into midday Friday timeframe, when wind chills of -40F to -55F will be possible. Even a few mph stronger wind gusts than the current forecast could push these wind chills even colder! Winds eventually weaken later Friday into this weekend as the deep high pressure--possibly as strong as 1048 mb--slides through. For context, this strong of a high pressure is near the maximum of the NAEFS CFSR reanalysis climatology for this time of year. The coldest actual air temperatures (not wind chills) will be Friday night into Saturday morning, and lows of -30F to -40F for areas away from Lake Superior. Near-Lake Superior locations should be slightly less cold in the -20s. There is a 20% chance that the low temperatures Saturday morning could dip below -40F in far northern Minnesota.

Several cold weather headlines have been issued given high confidence in this extremely dangerous cold spell occurring. For tonight through daytime Thursday, we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for most of central to northeast Minnesota and an Extreme Cold Warning for far northern Minnesota. The southern extent of the Cold Weather Advisory was expanded south due to a limited period of daytime moderation to the temperatures/wind chills before they come crashing down again late in the day Thursday into Thursday night. Northwest Wisconsin was left out of the Cold Weather Advisory for tonight/Thursday morning due less cold lows in the single digits below zero largely keeping wind chills there warmer than -25F. Starting Thursday evening and persisting through midday Saturday, the entirety of the Northland has been placed under an Extreme Cold Watch as limited daytime moderation in wind chills is expected for Friday. The expectation of light winds and slightly less cold days on Sunday into Monday morning should more likely place those days in the wind chill range for Cold Weather Advisories relative to the brutally cold days on Friday and Saturday.

South Shore Light Lake Effect Snow:

The very cold 850 mb temperatures/airmass late this week and weekend should keep light lake effect going for the South Shore. Given how dry the airmass is expected to be--PWATs of around 0.05" or less, near the bottom of climatology--expect snow rates to remain light.

Next Week:

We do see some relatively "warmer" temperatures heading into next week, though temperatures will still be below normal through the end of the month. Expect highs in the single digits to teens above zero and lows largely in the single digits below zero. Can't rule out some periodic South Shore light lake effect snow continuing into next week. Otherwise, don't expect much if anything in the way of accumulating snow for the Northland late this week into early next week. Global model ensembles do hint at a Clipper system moving through the Upper Midwest region sometime in the next Tuesday night to next Thursday timeframe, but confidence in timing and snowfall amounts with that system remains low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

An expansive area of MVFR stratus with occasional VFR to MVFR visibilities in light snow associated with low pressure passing through the Mid-Mississippi valley will continue into tonight. More widespread light snow arrives with a Clipper system this morning through afternoon, with some scattered snow showers lingering into the evening on the back side of the cold front in the colder air. Expect visibilities in the daytime snow to dip to IFR (70% chance) and then return to MVFR to VFR following the cold front depending on whether or not a snow shower impacts a terminal. Ceilings will be MVFR to IFR with the second round of snow, with MVFR lingering into the end of the TAF period after the cold front passes. Winds increase out of the northwest behind the cold front late this afternoon and evening with gusts of 18-25 kt.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 344 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Southwest wind gusts remain below 20 kt into daytime Wednesday. However, wind gusts increase out of the northwest behind a passing cold front Wednesday evening with stronger gusts to around or greater than 25 kt largely persisting into early Friday. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for this evening through Thursday afternoon, but will likely need extending into Friday morning. Areas of lake effect snow could lead to locally reduced visibility, particularly for the South Shore late this week into the weekend. Very cold temperatures will also lead to pockets of freezing spray along the South Shore, particularly in the Outer Apostle Islands for tonight through Friday morning where a Heavy Freezing Spray Warning has been issued.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ018>021-025-026-033>037. Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038. Extreme Cold Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for MNZ010>012. WI...Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ121-140>148-150. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ142. Extreme Cold Watch from Thursday evening through Saturday morning for LSZ142. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Friday for LSZ150.