textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Several rounds of intense snow showers are forecast this afternoon through Friday. Snow squalls are possible. Visibility less than 1/2 mile at times is likely in the heavier snow showers.

- Lake-effect snow showers will persist over northwest Wisconsin snowbelt areas through Saturday morning. Long duration snow will amount to pockets of 4 to 12 inches. Please see the latest Winter Weather Messages for additional details. - Arctic air returns this weekend into next week. Highs in the single digits above and below zero with overnight lows in the teens below zero are forecast. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero are forecast Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 421 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

The first round of snow showers was moving out of Price and Iron counties late this afternoon. Meanwhile the next batch of snow was located over north-central and northwest Minnesota and adjacent areas of southeast Manitoba and northwest Ontario. Snow squall potential will increase this afternoon and evening. GOES-East Band 2 visible imagery and Day Cloud Phase RGB revealed bubbling convective cloud tops associated with a region of elevated CAPE of up to 150 J/kg. Nearly vertical potential temperature contours will allow for efficient vertical motion and enhanced precipitation production as that area of snow progresses southeastward through this evening. Visibility of less than 1/10 of a mile was observed on a MnDOT webcam near Birchdale, MN earlier this afternoon. Look for brief periods of near whiteout conditions as those snow showers propagate southeastward tonight.

Another round of snow showers and reduced visibility is forecast later tonight as an Arctic cold front dives south- southeastward across the Northland. Steep low-level lapse rates in the wake of the front along with 6 mb/3 hour pressure rises will create strong and gusty winds and additional scattered snow showers Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Additional snow squalls are possible.

Lake-effect snow will develop over portions of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron counties Friday morning and will persist into Saturday morning. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 6 inches is forecast for northern Bayfield and east-central Ashland counties with amounts of a dusting up to 3 inches elsewhere in those counties. Northern Iron County will have the highest snow totals of 6 to 12 inches with 2 to 6 inches over the southern portions of the county. Therefore we issued a Winter Storm Warning for Iron County and Winter Weather Advisory for Bayfield and Ashland counties from 4 AM Friday until noon Saturday. The combination of snow and winds will create visibility less than 1/4 mile at times and create snow and ice covered roadways.

Much colder temperatures arrive behind the Arctic front tonight which will drop temperatures well below normal for the weekend. Another reinforcing Arctic front will move southward through the region Sunday night and Monday which will provide gusty winds, snow showers, and dangerous wind chills. Wind chills of 25 to 35 below zero are forecast and cold weather headlines will likely be needed. Highs on Monday will remain below zero for most of the Northland.

The prolonged period of cold temperatures persists through much of the upcoming week with a slight warming trend. There will be periodic chances of light snow during the period. Another shot of Arctic air is anticipated late next week into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Off and on snow chances will continue through the TAF period. Snow squalls have been observed across northern MN this afternoon and there is potential for this activity to continue into the evening hours and spread southeast impacting HIB/DLH/BRD. Under these squalls visibility will quickly drop to VLIFR as snow quickly accumulates. High res guidance suggests that another wave of snow may develop later tonight and cross the Northland through the early morning hours. Ceilings will continue to be a mix of MVFR/IFR through the period.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 421 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Strong southwest winds this afternoon will veer northwesterly early Friday morning in the wake of a cold front. Wind speeds and gusts will increase once again. Conditions will remain hazardous to smaller vessels tonight and again Friday through Saturday night. There is a 20% chance of gales to 35 knots between Grand Marais and Grand Portage Saturday morning. Snow showers are forecast tonight and Friday which may produce visibility less than 1/4 mile at times. Another surge of Arctic air will arrive Sunday night. Strong northwest winds are forecast behind the Arctic front with widespread gales of 35 to 45 knots forecast. There is a 15% chance of storm-force gusts to 47 knots near Grand Marais Monday morning. Building waves and cold temperatures will pose a risk of heavy freezing spray along the South Shore Sunday night and Monday. Gusty northwest winds will persist through Tuesday morning although wind speeds and wave heights will decrease Monday night and early Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for WIZ002-003. Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Friday to noon CST Saturday for WIZ004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ140>148-150.