textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and drizzle continues through this evening, lingering into Thursday for portions of NW WI. Additional rainfall amounts of another 0.5-1.75" are possible, with the highest rates daytime Wednesday.

- Depending on temperatures, some very light lake-effect snow could make an appearance along parts of the South Shore Thursday evening and Thursday night.

- Cooler weather expected for Friday into the weekend, with low- end (10-20%) chances for some light precipitation Saturday evening into Sunday along and behind a mostly dry cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

CURRENT OVERNIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT:

Banded light to moderate rain is occurring across central Minnesota into northeast Minnesota as of 1230 AM CST where a TROWAL and stronger synoptic forcing for lift are present, with scattered rain showers intermixed with areas of drizzle for east-central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. As we continue through the overnight hours into daytime Wednesday, expect this general footprint of rainfall to not change too significantly as a vertically stacked low pressure system stalls over east- central Minnesota/west-central Wisconsin. High-resolution model guidance (REFS) does indicate some reinvigoration to more moderate rainfall rates daytime Wednesday in the region of strongest synoptic support in the TROWAL for central Minnesota to northeast Minnesota, as well as some orographic enhancement to rainfall along the North Shore.

The low then translates into northwest Wisconsin late Wednesday and exits slowly to the east Wednesday night through Thursday as the upper-level cut-off low opens up and merges with a trough diving down from Hudson Bay. This will gradually end the rainfall from west to east across northeast Minnesota Wednesday night, though lingering moisture should keep light rain persisting in northwest Wisconsin into Thursday, particularly portions of the South Shore Thursday into Thursday night as cooler 850 mb temperatures slide over a relatively warmer Lake Superior to produce light lake-effect precipitation before a drier airmass wins out into Friday and cuts off precipitation. Depending on how much surface temperatures can cool Thursday evening and night in conjunction with lingering lake-effect precipitation, some light snow could mix in for parts of the South Shore, namely the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron Counties where minor snowfall accumulations of a couple tenths of an inch could occur on elevated surfaces.

As for additional rainfall amounts with this system, the forecast ranges from 0.5-1.75", with the lowest amounts in east-central Minnesota to inland northwest Wisconsin, and highest amounts in the Arrowhead, far northern Minnesota, and portions of the South Shore. The bulk of this additional precipitation occurs daytime Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

One other thing to watch for will be strong northerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph possible along portions of the higher terrain in Cook and Lake counties Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

FRIDAY - THIS WEEKEND:

No significant changes from the previous forecast for this timeframe. Cooler and mainly drier air settles in for late this week into weekend, with highs largely in the 40s and lows below freezing, even dipping into the teens in some locations Thursday night and Friday night. A slight warm up will then arrive to the area late this weekend into early next week. An upper level shortwave grazing northern portions of the area combined with a mostly dry cold front move through from Saturday evening into Sunday, bringing spotty and very low (10-20%) precipitation chances to parts of the Arrowhead, Borderlands, and northwest Wisconsin. This would mainly be in the form of sprinkles or isolated to widely scattered rain showers if any precipitation is realized.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Widespread rain with patchy fog is expected today as low pressure moves through the area. Cigs will largely be IFR to LIFR for much of the day, the exception being over northwest WI this morning as that region sees VFR to occasional MVFR cigs due to influence from the dry slot of the low pressure. Rain will begin to exit from west to east tonight into Thursday morning, with a subsequent improvement to any reduced visibility.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 1010 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

For today, areas of rain, drizzle, and fog will continue as a large system lingers across the region. Winds have come in a bit lighter than was previously forecast, and as a result the wave heights are also coming in lower, generally less than 4 feet. For that reason, we anticipate the small craft advisories will be allowed to expire this afternoon.

The larger concern is Thursday when this storm system departs. Northeast winds will become more northerly and increase, with gusts of 25-40kts. A Gale Warning remains in affect for Grand Marais to Grand Portage. If the forecast holds, we anticipate that this may need be expanded, and/or Small Craft Advisories issued.

Looking ahead, on Thursday evening winds will weaken, and become light and variable on Friday. The clouds, drizzle, and fog will also gradually ending from west to east on Thursday as drier air moves into the region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Minimal fire weather concerns through Thursday. Scattered rain and drizzle persists through much of today, gradually ending from west to east in northeast Minnesota this evening and tonight as drier air works into the area from the west. However, rain should linger in portions of northwest Wisconsin into Thursday, hanging around longest in some light lake-effect precipitation for portions of the South Shore into Thursday evening and night. Some light snow could even mix in for the higher terrain of Ashland and Iron Counties Thursday evening and night, though snow amounts look minimal at best for elevated surfaces (trace to a couple tenths of an inch). Additional rainfall amounts through Thursday range from 0.5-1.75", highest in far northern Minnesota into the Arrowhead and higher terrain of the North Shore.

Gusty north winds of 18-28 mph are forecast for today in northeast Minnesota, and generally gusting to 15 mph or less in northwest Wisconsin. Additional strong northerly winds develop Wednesday night into Thursday at 20-35 mph, being strongest for the North Shore. Cooler and rain-free conditions arrive on Friday, and largely continue into the weekend with min RH each afternoon ranging between 40-60%. Winds will be light on Friday, then be southwesterly at 5-10 mph with gusts of 10-18 mph on Saturday and similar strength on Sunday out of the west.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Thursday for LSZ140. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for LSZ140. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for LSZ141>144. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LSZ145>147-150.