textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Another chilly night ahead with frost likely across parts of the region.

- Persistent northeasterly winds will keep the threat for rip currents in place at Twin Port beaches today and may linger into Wednesday as well.

- Rainfall chances return late Wednesday into Thursday with another chance this weekend with above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

High pressure remained in control across the Northland early this afternoon with mainly clear skies across the region. Easterly winds off Lake Superior will again be gusty this afternoon, keeping a risk for rip currents in place another day along Minnesota and Wisconsin Points. Another cool night is expected under clear skies along with light winds. Lows were adjusted slightly downward with this update with 30s expected for most with 40s near Lake Superior. Another Frost Advisory is likely for tonight, but will likely not be as expansive as the one last night.

As the high slides a bit more to the east tonight into tomorrow, winds will turn more southerly. Highs tomorrow will be slightly warmer than today, with lower to middle 60s for most along with some 50s along the North Shore with onshore flow. Winds in the western arm of the lake will be more easterly with terrain funneling effects and lead elevated risk for rip currents at Twin Port beaches.

As upper ridging starts to build in tomorrow, a mid-level shortwave will move from the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. This will bring chances for showers mainly along and east of US 53/I-35 in Minnesota tomorrow night into Thursday. This system will be running into the surface high to the east and drier air in place and is expected to weaken as it crosses. Much of northwest Wisconsin may not see anything with this shortwave.

Southerly flow is again expected for Friday, allowing highs to warm into the 60s with a few lower 70s in spots. Another shortwave will lift along the periphery of the upper ridge Friday into the weekend as the ridge axis shifts eastward. This will bring another chance for showers to the region mainly on Saturday. Some of the models are a little more excited in terms of QPF with this system, but given the drought in place and overall setup, it doesn't instill much confidence in getting those higher amounts. Temperatures remain in the 60s with some low 70s in spots through the weekend and into early next week with additional chances for rainfall as the pattern becomes a bit more active.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1247 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

High pressure lingers over Lake Superior through much of the forecast. Stratus is once again forming along the higher terrain of the North Shore as easterly flow moves off Lake Superior. This is likely to bring IFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities to KDLH and KHIB. These clouds may spread as far as KBRD and KINL, but have left it out of those sites for now. VFR conditions will return by late morning, and linger most of the rest of the day today. This evening stratus may form once again after 04z towards the end of the TAF period, but have left out for now until confidence rises.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

High pressure to the east of Lake Superior will keep easterly winds in place across western Lake Superior this afternoon and into tonight. Funneling effects will lead to higher gusts in the western arm and along the South Shore with gusts to 20 to 25 knots expected. Small Craft Advisories are in place into this evening. Winds weaken tonight and become more southerly, but terrain funneling will again lead to easterly winds across western Lake Superior. Gusts are expected to be a little weaker and may remain just under advisory level. Lighter winds are then expected for Thursday and Friday with gusts to 15 knots.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Afternoon RH values will be in the 40-50% range across most of the Northland this afternoon. Drier RH values to as low as 35% are likely across the Pine Barrens of northwest Wisconsin. Gusty easterly winds to 20 to 25 mph will be possible near Lake Superior with lighter winds inland. Rain chances return tomorrow afternoon into Thursday, mainly across northeastern Minnesota. A wetting rainfall is not currently expected for most areas, although north-central Minnesota may see up to a quarter of an inch in spots. Above normal temperatures and additional chances for rain will persist through the weekend and into next week.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010>012-018- 019-026. WI...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>004- 007>009. MARINE...None.