textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of fog and/or stratus is expected to develop over the area or spread in from the west tonight

- A return to a dry and mild pattern settles in this weekend and persists through next week, bringing well above normal temperatures and with little to no chances for precipitation.

- Increasing southwest winds on Saturday will build waves and may create hazardous conditions for small craft on western Lake Superior.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A ridge of high pressure is sliding southeast across the region this afternoon, which has brought light winds and sunshine for a large part of the area. Temperatures have risen nicely into the 40s for most, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 40s. This is a few degrees warmer than guidance, serving as an excellent illustration of the power of even early November sunshine on dark ground. As we head into tonight, the main forecast concern is the development of fog and stratus. There is a layer of stratus lingering over eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota this afternoon. The warming temperatures and mixing of the boundary layer are quickly eating away at the edges of that stratus, but it is a rather large area for it to completely clear this afternoon before we lose the sunshine.

Soundings from this morning at Aberdeen and Bismarck put moisture associated with this stratus predominantly below 925mb. Wherever it ends up by late this afternoon, it is expected to expand once again after sunset, even as it advects northeast in the low-level flow. The heavy rainfall from earlier this week has also contributed a lot of moisture to the boundary layer, helping keep dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s over our area. The big question is whether the stratus from the west will expand into the area before or after fog forms, and what the intensity of either will be. Model guidance is struggling with the very shallow nature of the moisture, with some models going straight to stratus, and others giving us fog. For now I have favored keeping the stratus farther west with more fog development and colder temperatures. If that stratus layer expands and spreads east more quickly than anticipated, it will keep temperatures from dropping off as much as we have currently forecast and there will be less fog.

Whatever fog and stratus materializes tonight will gradually mix out Saturday morning, making way for another mostly sunny and mild day. Southwest winds will increase through the afternoon, bringing breezy conditions with gusts pushing toward 20 to 25 mph. This will help drive temperatures warmer than today, with upper 40s and lower 50s expected. A weak and moisture-starved cold front will cross the area late Saturday night into Sunday, shifting our winds to the west and northwest for Sunday. Despite this frontal passage, temperatures will remain above normal to close out the weekend.

A remarkably dry and quiet pattern will remain locked in place across the region for Monday through Thursday. Global models are keeping the primary storm track well north of the International Border. While a few weak shortwaves may pass near the area early in the week, precipitation chances remain low as the better dynamics and moisture will be confined to Ontario and Manitoba. High temperatures will consistently reach the mid 40s to mid 50s, which is notably above our normal late autumn averages. Overnight lows will still drop below freezing for most locations, but the overall weather pattern will feel exceptionally mild and tranquil.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

High pressure building over the region today will result in VFR conditions through most of the terminal forecasts. Winds will be light and variable through the period. Signals for fog development are increasing for late tonight into early Saturday morning, reducing visibility to at least MVFR. Have included some TEMPO groups for IFR visibility and ceilings for KBRD, KINL, KHIB and KDLH which are most likely to get reduced conditions.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Quiet conditions remain over western Lake Superior for this afternoon and evening with winds largely under 10 knots and waves of 1 foot or less. However, southwest winds will increase significantly beginning late tonight through Saturday, gusting to 25 to 30 knots. This will build waves, mainly for the open waters towards Isle Royale, of 6 to 8 feet. The highest waves in the nearshore waters should be in the 3 to 5 foot range north of Grand Marais along the North Shore. Winds turn gradally to the northwest for Sunday and remain gusty. Hazardous conditions for smaller vessels are expected, and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all of the western nearshore waters for Saturday into Sunday. Winds and waves gradually diminish through Sunday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A return to a drier weather pattern is expected to settle over the area through early next week with little to no chance for precipitation. Despite the lack of forecast rainfall, the record setting rainfall from earlier this week should help keep minimum relative humidity values somewhat elevated, generally hovering between 40 and 60 percent through the weekend and into early next week. Light and variable winds this afternoon will shift to the southwest tonight and increase for Saturday, gusting to 15 to 20 mph. Winds will then shift to the west and northwest for Sunday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ121-141>148-150. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 4 PM CST Sunday for LSZ140.