textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- After lake effect snow around the Penokee Range ends this morning, a drier pattern settles over the Northland today into next week with little to no chances for precipitation.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected to continue this week and are likely to persist into mid-November. Expect low temps to drop below freezing overnight for most locations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Conditions early this morning are relatively quiet as the low pressure that brought widespread rain earlier this week has departed well to the east and a ridge begins to build. Overcast skies are lingering early this morning over much of northwest WI, as north- northeast winds and cold temps aloft produce lake effect clouds. Light lake effect snow has also been reported early this morning around the snowbelts of the Penokee Range as 850mb temps have reduced to around -7 degC and lake sfc temps remain around 9 degC.

The resulting delta-T of 16 degrees has been able to produce around 200 J/kg of lake induced CAPE per the HRRR at KIWD. Additional accumulations are expected to be minimal at 0.2" or less, mostly occurring on elevated and grassy surfaces. Expect lake effect snow to end later this morning as drier air arrives, with snow accumulations quickly melting today as temps warm into the low to mid 40s.

In sharp contrast to the wet weather that was seen earlier this week, a much drier pattern is expected to settle over the CWA starting today and persist through much of next week. Global models largely keep the storm track north of the International Border, although several shortwaves will potentially move through the CWA on Saturday into early Sunday and on Tuesday into Wednesday. Precipitation chances are minimal to none in the CWA as these shortwaves propagate through, as the vast majority of moisture associated with these troughs is anticipated to remain in Manitoba and Ontario.

High temperatures today through the remainder of the forecast period are expected to be above-normal. For context, normal high temps for this time of year are around the upper 30s to low 40s with overnight lows in the 20s. This above-normal trend is very likely to continue through mid-November as the Climate Prediction Center has the Northland under an area likely to see above-normal temps.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

High pressure will settle over the region tonight and Friday. Expect lake-effect clouds and perhaps a few flurries over northwest Wisconsin. With temperatures at or below freezing, think fog development is unlikely as frost should be the preferred method of squeezing moisture out of the air. Winds remain light Friday. A few lake-effect snow showers are possible over northwest Wisconsin.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Winds will continue to ease this morning as the low pressure that brought widespread rain earlier this week moves farther to the east and high pressure builds. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect early this morning due to lingering waves in excess of 4 feet and breezy downslope winds along the North Shore. Winds become light and variable today, eventually shifting southwesterly heading into the weekend. Another period of Small Craft Advisories may be needed on Saturday into Sunday for much of western Lake Superior as southwest winds increase and waves build.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

In terms of precipitation, the pattern is currently expected to generally be dry with little to no chances for precipitation over the next week. While it will be dry in terms of precip, min RH is forecast to remain fairly elevated at 35% or higher. Days that will be having RH trend drier will be today in the MN Arrowhead and on Tuesday in northwest Wisconsin. Light and variable winds today will gradually become southwest tonight into Saturday morning. These southwest winds shift to the west-northwest on Sunday morning following a weak dry cold frontal passage.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough breakdown of fire weather conditions.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for LSZ140>142-146>148-150.