textproduct: Duluth

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a chance for light snow/wintry mix this afternoon and tonight, mainly across the Arrowhead.

- A second round of wintry mix and light snow is expected Monday and Monday evening, mainly affecting areas south of the Iron Range.

- Temperatures warm above normal for next week with highs in the 30s most days. Periodic chances for precipitation will be possible, but no significant precipitation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

A blanket of clouds is draped across the Northland this morning, even as a ridge of high pressure slides off to our east. This has produced much milder temperatures with values between 10 and 20 above as of 3 AM. For today, expect a quiet but cloudy afternoon with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 20s. We may get some localized lake effect light precipitation and lower clouds along the North Shore with the light east to southeast flow beginning later today and continuing tonight. The generally weak forcing and light wind flow makes confidence in this on the low side, so we have had to keep pops and amounts low until we can get better signals of if and where it develops.

Looking ahead to Monday, a better organized clipper will pass from Manitoba into Ontario. The initial warm front passes across the area late tonight, but the models are in poor agreement as to whether there will be enough moisture to produce precipitation across our northeast. If it does, it will likely be a wintry mix of snow, rain and the mixture in between. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 30s for most of the Northland on Monday in the warm sector of this system. Later on Monday a band of mid level frontogenesis crosses the southern half of the area along with the main trough axis, which should produce some light precipitation Monday afternoon and overnight for areas south of the Iron Range. The models are also struggling with the moisture and timing of the associated forcing, so have kept pops on the lower side until the uncertainty improves for this. This will also bring a wintry mixture of rain, snow and the freezing stuff in between, but will likely start out as rain and then gradually transition to snow Monday night. There may be some lingering low level instability showers behind this system with some horizontal convective rolls on Tuesday, but since there is pretty poor agreement on the timing and location, have left it out for now.

For the middle and latter portions of the week, we enter a warmer and generally drier pattern. Highs will consistently reach the 30s, which is well above normals for this time of year. Precipitation chances begin to sneak back into the forecast toward the end of the week and into next weekend, but confidence remains low throughout. Something to be aware of: This extended stretch of mild weather will degrade ice quality on our inland lakes and create unstable conditions near the shorelines.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1153 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Surface high pressure to our east with southerly flow across the region will continue through much of the forecast period. Most of the terminals are VFR as of issuance, but a weak trough axis extending across northern MN is causing MVFR ceilings for KINL and at times has been slipping into KHIB as well. I expect these MVFR ceilings to lift north overnight, allowing KINL to return to VFR in several hours. The next clipper moves into the area after 21z, bringing MVFR ceilings which slowly lift north across the area through the rest of the afternoon and evening. Precipitation chances are not high enough during the evening to include in the terminals, but would not be surprised there were some conversational flurries with the lower ceilings.

MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/

Issued at 407 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Expect east to southeast winds at 5 to 10 knots most of today, which then become southerly tonight and increase to 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 25 knots are possible late tonight into Monday morning, particularly along the North Shore east of Grand Marais. Waves will remain 1 foot or less for the nearshore waters through the next 48 hours, though this may be mainly due to the extensive ice cover which can be seen on the lake. Winds continue to veer into the southwest Monday afternoon and night before decreasing to 10 to 15 knots into the overnight hours and becoming westerly by early Tuesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None.