textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures this weekend with highs nearing the century mark.

- Thunderstorms chances (20-30%) return to extreme southwest Kansas Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft slowly building northward across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Based on radar trends and CAMs, a few diunrally-driven showers/storms may linger across central/south central Kansas through early evening. Otherwise, drier conditions are expected through late Saturday afternoon. Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to west central and extreme southwest Kansas Saturday evening as the SREF indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast across the Southern Rockies into the Western Plains on the backside of an upper level high centered across the Ark-La-Tex Region. Near the surface, pooled moisture reinforced by prevailing southerlies will provide ample instability across western Kansas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest while a trough axis remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado. As a result, diurnally-driven thunderstorm development is likely across eastern Colorado late Saturday afternoon as H5 vort maxima eject out of the Southern Rockies with storms then spreading eastward, potentially into far western Kansas Saturday evening. This is supported by the latest HREF showing just a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch near and along the Colorado line by late Saturday evening.

A little above normal temperatures are forecast Saturday as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass with H85 temperatures well above 25C in central Kansas to a little above 30C near the Colorado line. Under plenty of sunshine, look for afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 90s(F) to a little above 100F. This is suggested by the HREF painting a widespread >90% probability of temperatures topping 95F with a 90% probability of exceeding 100F in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 616 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Occasional mid level moisture/clouds in the 5000 to 10000ft AGL level will cross southwest Kansas over the next 24 hours. This is due to subtle upper waves rotating around a flattened 500mb high pressure system extending from North Texas into the Southeast United States. A nearly stationary surface boundary across eastern Colorado will maintain southerly winds at 10 to 15 knots overnight. These winds will shift to more southwesterly during the day on Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.