textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Typical mid July weather expected Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s and light winds.

- A cold front will arrive early in the weekend, providing a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

- Cooler air behind the cold front will reduce Saturday afternoon temperatures to the lower to mid 80s.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday, before another cold front brings another cooldown on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Radar and satellite imagery at midnight indicated a MCS dissipating over Kansas. DDC recorded a heat burst from the decaying MCS just after midnight, with the temperature rising from 77 to 92 at 1230 AM CDT. Remaining showers and convective cloud debris are expected to clear SW KS by sunrise Friday.

Typical mid July, summer weather is expected Friday with a mostly sunny sky and afternoon temperatures seasonably hot in the lower to mid 90s. Winds will be light, less than 15 mph, which will certainly add to heat impacts for those working outdoors Friday afternoon. Light winds will trend light northeast behind a prefrontal trough/wind shift during the day. This boundary is forecast to be near the OK/KS border by 7 pm, where some models such as 00z NAM suggest isolated storms may develop. Along with neighboring WFOs reduced pops before 7 pm, and only kept minimal slight chance (<25%) near the Oklahoma border/southeast zones where convergence along the trough may generate a storm before 7 pm. Most locations will be dry daylight Friday.

Cold front arrives in SW KS Friday night into Saturday morning. Given the nocturnal timing, convective initiation on the advancing boundary as instability wanes is unclear. What is much more clear is post-frontal upslope flow will generate numerous thunderstorms along the Colorado Front Range by 7 pm, and these will grow upscale into another MCS Friday night through Saturday morning. Probability of thunderstorms will show an increasing trend through Saturday morning, favoring western zones where the expected MCS will most likely track from Colorado. SPC marginal 5% wind/hail probability is warranted with this expected activity; high end severe weather is very unlikely given the cold front's out of phase timing with the diurnal heating cycle.

Noticeably cooler air will be in place behind the cold front Saturday, with cloud cover and light northeast winds working together to hold afternoon temperatures below normal, in the lower 80s. The forecast high at DDC Saturday is 82, and normal is 94. 00z NAM guidance is much cooler, holding temperatures in the 60s and 70s, particularly if post frontal clouds/rain can hold much of the day. NAM solutions suggest this is most likely across southern zones. NBM pops do favor the southern zones and adjacent to Oklahoma, but NBM temperatures will be too warm if NAM verifies. Instability is displaced mainly south of SW KS, and SPC marginal 5% severe wind probability is confined to areas along the Oklahoma border Saturday.

A warming trend is expected of course Sunday through Tuesday, with global models showing thickness and 850 temperatures climbing incrementally each day. Expect temperatures back to normal, in the lower to mid 90s, by Tuesday afternoon. Rain and thunderstorm prospects Sunday through Tuesday appear minimal to absent, and dry NBM pops reflect this. Ensemble means and GFS/ECMWF forecast a strong shortwave over the northern Rockies Wednesday morning, into the Mississippi valley Thursday morning. This will force yet another cold front into SW KS during the Wednesday/Thursday time range, with a return of scattered thunderstorms and cooler afternoons in the 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Radar and satellite imagery at 04z showed a mesoscale convective system (MCS) decaying over SW KS. Remaining rain showers and convection are expected to be east of the airports or dissipated by the beginning of this TAF period (06z Fri), followed by a gradual removal of mid and high clouds through 12z Fri. Excellent flying weather is expected daylight Friday, with VFR/SKC and light winds generally less than 12 kts. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with an expected cold front may hold off until after 06z Sat, so kept this set of TAFs dry.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.