textproduct: Dodge City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Two major storm systems to impact the southwest Kansas region through next Saturday.

- Storm #1 will provide large area of cold rain much of the day Monday with widespread 1/2 to 1" rainfall likely.

- Storm #2 later in the week will also be a very wet storm across much of the central and southern High Plains. Early indications are widespread additional 1-2" of rainfall highly possible based on latest ensemble 25th-75th percentile output.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

A very active weather pattern will continue through this forecast period ending next weekend. Two Southwest Lows will move out across the Great Plains, each of which bringing appreciable rainfall across our southwest Kansas region.

This afternoon water vapor imagery and RAP analysis showed the center of a deep mid tropospheric trough axis extending from Montana south to eastern Arizona. The strongest upper level jet streak was still on the western side of the trough axis, thus deepening and closing off of a mid latitude cyclone has yet to occur and will occur tonight as the base of the trough moves out across New Mexico. By 18Z Monday, models have aligned fairly well with 500mb low centered somewhere between Roswell and Clovis, NM with south to north 500-700mb upstream of southwest Kansas, interacting with a low level front which will be moving slowly south during the day Monday. Abundant low level moisture will continue in the warm sector south of the front from the eastern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and widespread rain will overspread southwest Kansas in the 12-15Z time frame Monday.

The classic "comma head" of the maturing mid-latitude cyclone will occur over southwest Kansas with fairly rapid occlusion occurring mid to late day Monday as the mid level jet streak rounds the southeastern portion of the cyclone. Frontogenesis centered around 700mb will increase from southwest to northeast from roughly Liberal to Dodge City to Hays, becoming quasi-stationary through the afternoon into the evening. This will likely be the axis of heaviest rainfall amounts. 12z HREF has a large area of 25-75th percentile rainfall amount range of 0.50 to 1.00". So, we have fairly high confidence, both from forecaster experience of lows tracking to the south of southwest Kansas like this, and from the model QPF fields in a large portion of southwest Kansas seeing 1/2 to 1" of rain. Some isolated peak amounts of 1.50 to 1.75" cannot be ruled out in some portions of southwest Kansas, near the zone of strongest frontogenesis, based on 90th percentile HREF fields.

This event will be all cold rain, although HREF does show some small probSnow along the Colorado line, however given the spatial extent of probSnow tied just to the Colorado line, we will keep all areas liquid rainfall. Areas like Elkhart to Manter could see a couple wet snow flakes mixed in during heavier precipitation. Most areas, especially west of U283, will stay in the 40s during the afternoon with the widespread rain and north surface winds. The storm will pull away late in the evening Monday as it also weakens, so rainfall rates will drop quite a bit in the 06-09Z time frame early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will be quiet in between storm systems with light wind and an MSLP pattern readjusting between the departure of Monday's storm and the approach of mid-late week storm.

By Tuesday Night and Wednesday, the next upper low will form across southern Utah toward the Four Corners. This system will start off more negatively tilt, which will allow the next round of colder air and north winds to drive south ahead of the system. All the models and ensemble system show the upper low anchoring and changing orientation from positive tilt to neutral to eventually slight negative tilt as the cyclone traverses the Southern Rockies. Low level moisture will begin to push back northwest into the southern High Plains (large area of 12+ degC 850mb dewpoint). The 850mb response looks quite good on all models with strong southeasterly winds at that level of 30 to 40 knots by late Thursday/Thursday Night. This will manifest as a large area of showers and thunderstorms just to the south of southwest Kansas with low level moisture transport vectors pointed right toward southwest Kansas. This is shaping up to be an even more meteorological impressive storm for much of the southern and central High Plains, including southwest Kansas, and it really will come down to timing and the number of rounds of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall. Right now, much of our area will likely see heaviest rainfall from late Thursday Night into Friday Night.

Latest 100-member Grand Ensemble from 12Z this morning shows 25th- 75th percentile range of 1-2" for the event total with Storm #2 at DDC over the period Thursday through early Saturday. There will be much more concerning the late week to early weekend storm as we draw closer to this event, so keep checking back for updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 441 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024

Low clouds will once again envelop western Kansas overnight with MVFR to IFR ceilings by sunrise tomorrow. Periods of showers after 12Z tomorrow may lower visibilities to LIFR conditions. Winds will initially be from a southerly direction, shifting to the north with an increase in speed by sunrise tomorrow. Wind gusts should remain below 25 knots late morning into the afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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